Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, January 2
Outlook Summary
No severe threat is expected across the U.S. through tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 030056
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Fri Jan 02 2026
Valid 030100Z - 031200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
No severe threat is expected across the U.S. through tonight.
DISCUSSION
A shortwave trough will move through the Southeast tonight. Ahead of this feature, isolated thunderstorms may occur across parts of Alabama, Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. Further west, a shortwave trough will move southeastward across the southern Plains this evening. A small cluster of thunderstorms near the trough will likely persist for a couple more hours in the central and eastern Texas Panhandle. In the western U.S., a few thunderstorms may develop in California tonight ahead of a mid-level trough moving through the eastern Pacific. No severe threat is expected across the U.S. through daybreak on Saturday.
..Broyles.. 01/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Saturday, January 3
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast on Saturday, and the Sacramento/northern San Joaquin Valleys to coastal northern California-southwest Oregon in the afternoon/early evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 021725
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND PARTS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE OREGON COAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast on Saturday, and the Sacramento/northern San Joaquin Valleys to coastal northern California-southwest Oregon in the afternoon/early evening.
Southeast
Late-morning surface observations across the TX/LA/MS region show the early stages of moisture return ahead of a gradually deepening surface low to the west across the southern Plains. The ejection of a low-amplitude mid-level perturbation (noted in water-vapor imagery over the Four Corners region as of 17 UTC) will lead to modest strengthening and an eastward progression of the surface low into the Southeast states through Saturday evening.
Thunderstorms will likely develop within the warm/moist advection regime and along a weak surface trough/cold front by mid/late afternoon across portions of AL, GA, and northern FL. A plume of low to mid-60s dewpoints will likely become established by late afternoon across the FL Panhandle into southern GA, and should support MLCAPE values upwards of 1000 J/kg, though ongoing showers/thunderstorms may modulate overall destabilization to some degree. 50-knot mid-level flow will support adequate deep-layer shear for organized convection, including the potential for semi-discrete supercells before gradual upscale growth occurs through late afternoon/evening. Some severe wind/hail and tornado threat is expected to materialize, but uncertainty regarding the degree of destabilization within the warm sector and storm mode limits confidence for higher risk probabilities. This uncertainty is reflected in 12z CAM/HREF guidance, which depicts only modest signals for intense convection. That said, a more focused corridor of severe risk may emerge along the FL/GA line where the convective environment should be relatively most favorable for supercells.
Central Valley into the CA/OR Coasts
A strong upper trough off the West Coast is expected to move inland over the next 24 hours. Multiple bands of showers and thunderstorms will likely spread across northern CA and OR through peak heating when modest low-level moisture (low 50s dewpoints) will likely support a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE. Southerly low-level flow through the Central Valley will maintain some low-level hodograph curvature that may be favorable for a brief tornado or two. Additionally, 40-45 flow between the 1-3 km layer may augment downdraft winds and support sporadic wind damage and perhaps a few severe gusts.
..Moore.. 01/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Sunday, January 4
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 021924
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 PM CST Fri Jan 02 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night.
Synopsis
A mid-level wave traversing the eastern CONUS at the beginning of the period will continue to shift off the East Coast through the day Sunday. A trailing cold front pushing southward along the FL Peninsula will likely support shallow convective showers along the coasts, but warm mid-level temperatures coincident with dry air will limit the potential for deep convection and lightning production. Across the West, broad southwesterly flow will persist along the coast and into the Great Basin. Thunderstorm potential will most likely be confined to central CA and perhaps along the northern CA and OR/WA coasts where cool mid-level temperatures will overspread modest low-level moisture. Weaker low-level wind profiles compared to D2/Saturday should limit the potential for organized convection. Sporadic lightning flashes appear possible further inland across the northern Great Basin given broad-scale ascent and some degree of mid-level cooling, but the signal for appreciable MUCAPE among all guidance is too limited to introduce additional thunder areas.
..Moore.. 01/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Monday, January 5
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, January 5 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, January 6 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, January 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, January 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, January 9 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020939 SPC AC 020939
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
DISCUSSION
Convective potential appears likely to increase across at least the South-Central States, centered on eastern TX to the Lower MS Valley mid to late week. While day-to-day predictability is low, the broader signal hints at potentially multiple days of at least low-probability severe during D6-9/Wednesday-Saturday.
Initial concern is with the downstream evolution of a lower-latitude shortwave trough across Baja CA and northwest Mexico early in the week. Guidance continues to struggle with spatiotemporal aspects of this wave by mid-week. But potential exists for this wave to interact with a modifying warm-moist sector from the western Gulf into the South-Central States. Faster guidance indicates severe-storm potential may commence by late Wednesday.
In the wake of the initial shortwave trough, guidance consensus suggests that a broad upper trough should evolve across the West late week. This may yield an expansive swath of fast mid-level southwesterlies from the southern High Plains to the Northeast. Given a lack of frontal intrusion into the northwest Gulf with the lead wave, seasonably rich low-level moisture may overlap a portion of this fast flow regime around Friday-Saturday. Latest NSSL GEFS ML V1.2 probs appear reasonable with depictions of 5 percent peak probs on D6-7, followed by 10 percent areas on D8-9.
..Grams.. 01/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, January 6
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, January 5 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, January 6 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, January 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, January 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, January 9 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020939 SPC AC 020939
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
DISCUSSION
Convective potential appears likely to increase across at least the South-Central States, centered on eastern TX to the Lower MS Valley mid to late week. While day-to-day predictability is low, the broader signal hints at potentially multiple days of at least low-probability severe during D6-9/Wednesday-Saturday.
Initial concern is with the downstream evolution of a lower-latitude shortwave trough across Baja CA and northwest Mexico early in the week. Guidance continues to struggle with spatiotemporal aspects of this wave by mid-week. But potential exists for this wave to interact with a modifying warm-moist sector from the western Gulf into the South-Central States. Faster guidance indicates severe-storm potential may commence by late Wednesday.
In the wake of the initial shortwave trough, guidance consensus suggests that a broad upper trough should evolve across the West late week. This may yield an expansive swath of fast mid-level southwesterlies from the southern High Plains to the Northeast. Given a lack of frontal intrusion into the northwest Gulf with the lead wave, seasonably rich low-level moisture may overlap a portion of this fast flow regime around Friday-Saturday. Latest NSSL GEFS ML V1.2 probs appear reasonable with depictions of 5 percent peak probs on D6-7, followed by 10 percent areas on D8-9.
..Grams.. 01/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, January 7
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, January 5 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, January 6 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, January 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, January 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, January 9 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020939 SPC AC 020939
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
DISCUSSION
Convective potential appears likely to increase across at least the South-Central States, centered on eastern TX to the Lower MS Valley mid to late week. While day-to-day predictability is low, the broader signal hints at potentially multiple days of at least low-probability severe during D6-9/Wednesday-Saturday.
Initial concern is with the downstream evolution of a lower-latitude shortwave trough across Baja CA and northwest Mexico early in the week. Guidance continues to struggle with spatiotemporal aspects of this wave by mid-week. But potential exists for this wave to interact with a modifying warm-moist sector from the western Gulf into the South-Central States. Faster guidance indicates severe-storm potential may commence by late Wednesday.
In the wake of the initial shortwave trough, guidance consensus suggests that a broad upper trough should evolve across the West late week. This may yield an expansive swath of fast mid-level southwesterlies from the southern High Plains to the Northeast. Given a lack of frontal intrusion into the northwest Gulf with the lead wave, seasonably rich low-level moisture may overlap a portion of this fast flow regime around Friday-Saturday. Latest NSSL GEFS ML V1.2 probs appear reasonable with depictions of 5 percent peak probs on D6-7, followed by 10 percent areas on D8-9.
..Grams.. 01/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, January 8
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, January 5 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, January 6 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, January 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, January 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, January 9 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020939 SPC AC 020939
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
DISCUSSION
Convective potential appears likely to increase across at least the South-Central States, centered on eastern TX to the Lower MS Valley mid to late week. While day-to-day predictability is low, the broader signal hints at potentially multiple days of at least low-probability severe during D6-9/Wednesday-Saturday.
Initial concern is with the downstream evolution of a lower-latitude shortwave trough across Baja CA and northwest Mexico early in the week. Guidance continues to struggle with spatiotemporal aspects of this wave by mid-week. But potential exists for this wave to interact with a modifying warm-moist sector from the western Gulf into the South-Central States. Faster guidance indicates severe-storm potential may commence by late Wednesday.
In the wake of the initial shortwave trough, guidance consensus suggests that a broad upper trough should evolve across the West late week. This may yield an expansive swath of fast mid-level southwesterlies from the southern High Plains to the Northeast. Given a lack of frontal intrusion into the northwest Gulf with the lead wave, seasonably rich low-level moisture may overlap a portion of this fast flow regime around Friday-Saturday. Latest NSSL GEFS ML V1.2 probs appear reasonable with depictions of 5 percent peak probs on D6-7, followed by 10 percent areas on D8-9.
..Grams.. 01/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, January 9
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, January 5 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, January 6 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, January 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, January 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, January 9 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020939 SPC AC 020939
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
DISCUSSION
Convective potential appears likely to increase across at least the South-Central States, centered on eastern TX to the Lower MS Valley mid to late week. While day-to-day predictability is low, the broader signal hints at potentially multiple days of at least low-probability severe during D6-9/Wednesday-Saturday.
Initial concern is with the downstream evolution of a lower-latitude shortwave trough across Baja CA and northwest Mexico early in the week. Guidance continues to struggle with spatiotemporal aspects of this wave by mid-week. But potential exists for this wave to interact with a modifying warm-moist sector from the western Gulf into the South-Central States. Faster guidance indicates severe-storm potential may commence by late Wednesday.
In the wake of the initial shortwave trough, guidance consensus suggests that a broad upper trough should evolve across the West late week. This may yield an expansive swath of fast mid-level southwesterlies from the southern High Plains to the Northeast. Given a lack of frontal intrusion into the northwest Gulf with the lead wave, seasonably rich low-level moisture may overlap a portion of this fast flow regime around Friday-Saturday. Latest NSSL GEFS ML V1.2 probs appear reasonable with depictions of 5 percent peak probs on D6-7, followed by 10 percent areas on D8-9.
..Grams.. 01/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, January 2
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Saturday, January 3
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Sunday, January 4
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Monday, January 5
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, January 6
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, January 7
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, January 8
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, January 9
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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