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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Friday, September 11

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, potentially in excess of two inches, a few tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts are expected over portions of the upper Mississippi Valley Friday afternoon into night. Storm development is more uncertain with southward extent into the central Plains, where a conditional risk for mainly large hail and severe wind gusts exists late Friday afternoon through evening. Isolated occurrences of damaging wind gusts appear possible from the Mid-South into the Carolinas and Virginia.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 110526

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, potentially in excess of two inches, a few tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts are expected over portions of the upper Mississippi Valley Friday afternoon into night. Storm development is more uncertain with southward extent into the central Plains, where a conditional risk for mainly large hail and severe wind gusts exists late Friday afternoon through evening. Isolated occurrences of damaging wind gusts appear possible from the Mid-South into the Carolinas and Virginia.

Synopsis

A low-amplitude short-wave trough moving onto the Pacific Northwest coast late this evening will progress through the northern Rockies before reaching the ND/SK/MB border region by Friday evening. Meanwhile, a preceding, lower-latitude disturbance is forecast to move through SD into MN on Friday with strengthening mid/upper-level winds and modest height falls accompanying these perturbations over the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley. Elsewhere, a vorticity maximum/weak upper low will drift east from the Ozark Plateau into the mid/lower MS Valley.

At the surface, an area of low pressure over western SD at 12Z Friday is forecast to deepen slightly while developing into northeast SD by afternoon, before subsequently weakening while moving through central MN Friday night. The surface cyclone will coincide with a cold front that will advance through the northern Plains and the upper MS Valley. The trailing extension of the boundary will move more slowly south into the mid MO Valley and central High Plains. A dryline will precede the cold front with that feature extending from eastern SD through central NE into western KS by late afternoon. Elsewhere, a synoptic front modulated by convective outflow is expected to stretch from the Mid-South into the southern Mid-Atlantic on Friday afternoon.

### Upper Mississippi Valley into the mid Missouri Valley

A low-level jet (LLJ) is forecast to strengthen through the day from the mid MO Valley into the upper Midwest, enhancing the poleward flux of an increasingly moist air mass ahead of the surface low and attending frontal system. The moisture increase will occur beneath a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates with MLCAPE increasing to 1500-2500+ J/kg by mid to late afternoon. Initial storm development is expected at that time across portions of northern MN along or ahead of the front, on the northern fringe of stronger capping.

Vertically veering wind profiles with 40-45 kt of deep-layer shear will support supercells as the initial storm mode with the primary hazard being large hail, some of which could exceed two inches. A few tornadoes appear possible with any sustained supercells from late afternoon into evening when the strengthening LLJ enhances low-level shear with effective SRH increasing to 250-300 m2/s2. Storms are expected to gradually grow upscale along the cold front during the evening, at which point, the risk for damaging winds should increase.

Severe weather potential becomes more conditional with southward extent along the front and dryline in the mid MO Valley owing to stronger capping and weaker height falls/forcing for ascent. The 00Z models (convection-allowing and parameterized) indicate a relative minimum in thunderstorm chances over eastern SD and southwest MN with increasing probabilities from northeast NE into south-central NE and north-central KS. Given surface-based storm initiation and sustenance, CAPE-shear parameter space will favor supercells capable of all hazards from eastern SD and southwest MN into northeast NE and northwest IA, with generally a wind and hail threat farther south along the NE-KS state line.

### Mid-South into the Carolinas and Virginia

Areas of thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at 12Z Friday from the Ozark Plateau into the southern Mid-Atlantic. Stronger heating on the southern fringe any lingering cloud cover will combine with boundary-layer dewpoints in the low to mid 70s F to yield MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg by afternoon. Aided by forcing for ascent associated with the mid-level trough approaching the mid/lower MS Valley, thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon along and ahead of the composite surface boundary. Weak vertical shear will limit storm organization with mainly pulse storms expected. Nonetheless, the presence steep low-level lapse rates and abundant moisture will be supportive of wet microbursts capable of locally damaging wind gusts.

..Mead/Halbert.. 09/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Saturday, September 12

Outlook Summary

Isolated severe storms, and perhaps at least a small organizing cluster of storms, appear possible across parts of the lower Missouri Valley late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 110500

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA…SOUTHWESTERN IOWA…NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI

### SUMMARY

Isolated severe storms, and perhaps at least a small organizing cluster of storms, appear possible across parts of the lower Missouri Valley late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.

Discussion

Downstream of a blocking mid-level high, which will likely be maintained to the southeast of the Aleutians through this period, models indicate that another vigorous digging short wave trough will contribute to lower/mid-tropospheric cyclogenesis offshore of the Pacific Northwest, before slowly pivoting inland Saturday through Saturday night. Farther east, it appears that attempts at building ridging across the northern Rockies into adjacent Great Plains will be suppressed by a digging short wave trough across the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity, within the southwestern periphery of larger-scale troughing east of the Canadian Prairies through the Canadian Maritimes.

By 12Z Saturday, perhaps the strongest short wave perturbation within the eastern Canadian troughing is forecast to be in the process of digging near the southwestern shores of Hudson Bay. As this feature turns eastward during the day, renewed cyclogenesis is forecast to the southeast of the primary surface cyclone, across northern Quebec. A cold front trailing to the southwest may advance across much of the upper Great Lakes, Upper Midwest and northern Great Plains by late Saturday night, preceded by a weaker cool surge, perhaps reinforced by convective outflow, across the lower Missouri Valley and central Great Plains.

It does appear that southern mid- to subtropical latitude ridging will remain prominent across much of the central/southern Great Plains through Southeast into early Sunday. Within and near the northern periphery of this feature, a weak perturbation initially migrating east of the mid/lower Mississippi Valley is forecast to become increasingly sheared across the Appalachians through Northeast.

Parts of central Great Plains/lower Missouri Valley

Stronger warm sector low-level wind fields and forcing for ascent are generally forecast to remain in closer proximity to the primary and secondary surface cyclones, to the Canadian side of the international border through this period. However, in the wake of the shearing perturbation to the east of the Mississippi Valley, models continue to suggest that forcing for ascent aided by lower/mid-tropospheric warm, beneath a difluent regime near/just south of the mid-level westerlies, may provide a focus for strong thunderstorm development Saturday through Saturday night.

By early Saturday, it appears that this may set up across the lower Missouri Valley vicinity, where a zone of stronger differential surface heating may evolve by late Saturday afternoon. Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture near the interface of the stronger heating, beneath a plume of elevated mixed-layer air, may support a corridor of large mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 2000-3000+ J/kg. Coinciding with at least modest deep-layer shear, aided by pronounced veering of winds with height in lower to mid-levels, this regime may become conducive to the development of isolated to widely scattered supercells. It is possible that stronger activity persisting into Saturday evening could grow upscale into an organizing southeastward propagating cluster, near the nose of a modestly strengthening southwesterly nocturnal boundary-layer jet.

Due to substantive continuing spread within and among the various model output, including the latest available convection-allowing guidance, severe probabilities have been maintained at 5 percent. However, this could still change in later outlooks for this period.

..Kerr.. 09/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Sunday, September 13

Outlook Summary

Strong storms accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather appears possible across parts of the Northeast into Ohio Valley, and across parts of the north central Great Plains, Sunday into Sunday night.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 110730

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS A CORRIDOR FROM WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND ANOTHER CORRIDOR FROM NEAR AND SOUTHWEST OF THE BLACK HILLS THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Strong storms accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather appears possible across parts of the Northeast into Ohio Valley, and across parts of the north central Great Plains, Sunday into Sunday night.

Discussion

An initially notable mid-level low inland of the Pacific Northwest coast by 12Z Sunday is forecast to remain progressive through this period, though it may slowly begin to devolve into an open trough while accelerating across the northern U.S. Rockies in response to a short wave digging into northwestern portions of the Canadian Prairies. Within the downstream westerlies, models indicate that short wave ridging will build across the northern U.S. Great Plains and adjacent Canadian Prairies through the Upper Midwest/adjacent northwestern Ontario, while downstream troughing digs across Quebec through the lower Great Lakes region.

The primary surface cyclone associated with eastern troughing is forecast to migrate from northern Quebec into the Labrador Sea by late Sunday night. As it does, the trailing cold front probably will advance southeast of the lower Great Lakes region by late Sunday afternoon, before overspreading the northern Atlantic Seaboard through upper Ohio Valley by the end of the period. Westward through the Ohio and middle Mississippi Valleys into the central Great Plains, it appears that this front may stall near or just south of the stronger westerlies.

Parts of western New England into the Ohio Valley

Models vary concerning the degree of pre-frontal destabilization and the extent to which this may coincide with strengthening of westerly flow in the 700-500 mb layer, downstream of the digging short wave trough. However, particularly to the lee of the lower Great Lakes toward the northern Mid Atlantic vicinity, it appears that forcing for ascent will become increasingly conducive to at least scattered thunderstorm development by or shortly after peak daytime heating. As this occurs, developing storms will probably be accompanied by at least some risk for damaging wind gusts before weakening Sunday evening.

North central Great Plains/Middle Missouri Valley vicinity

The degree to which cool/stable boundary-layer air remains entrenched across much of Nebraska into parts of northern Kansas, to the south of the westerlies and beneath a remnant plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air, remains unclear. Between the cool boundary layer, which may be relatively shallow, and the base of the capping elevated mixed layer, it does appear that a seasonably moist air mass retreating northward through the region will contribute to moderate to large CAPE.

Although notable spread exists within/among the various model output, there appears potential for at least isolated to widely scattered strong to severe storm development in moistening southeasterly low-level flow across and to the southwest of the Black Hills vicinity by late Sunday afternoon, with the approach of the short wave trough. Subsequent development eastward into the Great Plains remains more uncertain, but, by late Sunday night, stronger storm development seems most likely to focus on the nose of a strengthening southerly low-level jet, near the northeastern periphery of the plume of elevated mixed-layer air, across/northeast of the middle Missouri Valley. This may be accompanied by at least a risk for severe hail.

..Kerr.. 09/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Monday, September 14

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110859 SPC AC 110859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range guidance indicates that a remnant cyclonic circulation and associated mid-level troughing, likely accelerating across the northern U.S. Rockies and adjacent international border vicinity by early Monday, may be accompanied by substantive surface cyclogenesis across southern Manitoba through northwestern Ontario Monday through Monday night, before continuing east-northeastward into the higher latitudes. It appears that this will occur coincident with the transition to a more progressive regime across the northern mid-latitude Pacific, including the gradual suppression of a blocking high initially to the southeast of the Aleutians. It also appears likely to coincide with the redevelopment of rather prominent mid/upper ridging becoming centered across the Tennessee Valley/southern Appalachians vicinity, and increasingly influential across much of the central and eastern U.S. into the middle to latter portions of next week, before becoming suppressed and retrograding west-southwestward.

In association with this regime, although there is some uncertainty concerning low-level moisture return and destabilization, it still appears that an evolving warm frontal zone could become a focus for organized strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of the middle Missouri Valley toward Upper Midwest late Monday afternoon into Monday night. Thereafter, the potential for organized severe thunderstorm development appears generally low, though there may still be areas of strong storm development with rather isolated or marginal severe weather potential.

..Kerr.. 09/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, September 15

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Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110859 SPC AC 110859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range guidance indicates that a remnant cyclonic circulation and associated mid-level troughing, likely accelerating across the northern U.S. Rockies and adjacent international border vicinity by early Monday, may be accompanied by substantive surface cyclogenesis across southern Manitoba through northwestern Ontario Monday through Monday night, before continuing east-northeastward into the higher latitudes. It appears that this will occur coincident with the transition to a more progressive regime across the northern mid-latitude Pacific, including the gradual suppression of a blocking high initially to the southeast of the Aleutians. It also appears likely to coincide with the redevelopment of rather prominent mid/upper ridging becoming centered across the Tennessee Valley/southern Appalachians vicinity, and increasingly influential across much of the central and eastern U.S. into the middle to latter portions of next week, before becoming suppressed and retrograding west-southwestward.

In association with this regime, although there is some uncertainty concerning low-level moisture return and destabilization, it still appears that an evolving warm frontal zone could become a focus for organized strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of the middle Missouri Valley toward Upper Midwest late Monday afternoon into Monday night. Thereafter, the potential for organized severe thunderstorm development appears generally low, though there may still be areas of strong storm development with rather isolated or marginal severe weather potential.

..Kerr.. 09/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, September 16

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Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110859 SPC AC 110859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range guidance indicates that a remnant cyclonic circulation and associated mid-level troughing, likely accelerating across the northern U.S. Rockies and adjacent international border vicinity by early Monday, may be accompanied by substantive surface cyclogenesis across southern Manitoba through northwestern Ontario Monday through Monday night, before continuing east-northeastward into the higher latitudes. It appears that this will occur coincident with the transition to a more progressive regime across the northern mid-latitude Pacific, including the gradual suppression of a blocking high initially to the southeast of the Aleutians. It also appears likely to coincide with the redevelopment of rather prominent mid/upper ridging becoming centered across the Tennessee Valley/southern Appalachians vicinity, and increasingly influential across much of the central and eastern U.S. into the middle to latter portions of next week, before becoming suppressed and retrograding west-southwestward.

In association with this regime, although there is some uncertainty concerning low-level moisture return and destabilization, it still appears that an evolving warm frontal zone could become a focus for organized strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of the middle Missouri Valley toward Upper Midwest late Monday afternoon into Monday night. Thereafter, the potential for organized severe thunderstorm development appears generally low, though there may still be areas of strong storm development with rather isolated or marginal severe weather potential.

..Kerr.. 09/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Thursday, September 17

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110859 SPC AC 110859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range guidance indicates that a remnant cyclonic circulation and associated mid-level troughing, likely accelerating across the northern U.S. Rockies and adjacent international border vicinity by early Monday, may be accompanied by substantive surface cyclogenesis across southern Manitoba through northwestern Ontario Monday through Monday night, before continuing east-northeastward into the higher latitudes. It appears that this will occur coincident with the transition to a more progressive regime across the northern mid-latitude Pacific, including the gradual suppression of a blocking high initially to the southeast of the Aleutians. It also appears likely to coincide with the redevelopment of rather prominent mid/upper ridging becoming centered across the Tennessee Valley/southern Appalachians vicinity, and increasingly influential across much of the central and eastern U.S. into the middle to latter portions of next week, before becoming suppressed and retrograding west-southwestward.

In association with this regime, although there is some uncertainty concerning low-level moisture return and destabilization, it still appears that an evolving warm frontal zone could become a focus for organized strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of the middle Missouri Valley toward Upper Midwest late Monday afternoon into Monday night. Thereafter, the potential for organized severe thunderstorm development appears generally low, though there may still be areas of strong storm development with rather isolated or marginal severe weather potential.

..Kerr.. 09/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Friday, September 18

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110859 SPC AC 110859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range guidance indicates that a remnant cyclonic circulation and associated mid-level troughing, likely accelerating across the northern U.S. Rockies and adjacent international border vicinity by early Monday, may be accompanied by substantive surface cyclogenesis across southern Manitoba through northwestern Ontario Monday through Monday night, before continuing east-northeastward into the higher latitudes. It appears that this will occur coincident with the transition to a more progressive regime across the northern mid-latitude Pacific, including the gradual suppression of a blocking high initially to the southeast of the Aleutians. It also appears likely to coincide with the redevelopment of rather prominent mid/upper ridging becoming centered across the Tennessee Valley/southern Appalachians vicinity, and increasingly influential across much of the central and eastern U.S. into the middle to latter portions of next week, before becoming suppressed and retrograding west-southwestward.

In association with this regime, although there is some uncertainty concerning low-level moisture return and destabilization, it still appears that an evolving warm frontal zone could become a focus for organized strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of the middle Missouri Valley toward Upper Midwest late Monday afternoon into Monday night. Thereafter, the potential for organized severe thunderstorm development appears generally low, though there may still be areas of strong storm development with rather isolated or marginal severe weather potential.

..Kerr.. 09/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Friday, September 11

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 30%

Saturday, September 12

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 5%

Sunday, September 13

ANY SEVERE: 5%

Monday, September 14

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Tuesday, September 15

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Wednesday, September 16

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Thursday, September 17

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, September 18

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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