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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Wednesday, March 4

Outlook Summary

Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from north-central Texas and eastern Oklahoma to the Ozarks and Lower Ohio Valley. Large hail, localized wind damage, and a tornado or two are possible.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 041912

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CST Wed Mar 04 2026

Valid 042000Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TEXAS/EASTERN OKLAHOMA TO OZARKS AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from north-central Texas and eastern Oklahoma to the Ozarks and Lower Ohio Valley. Large hail, localized wind damage, and a tornado or two are possible.

20z Update

Only minor adjustments were made to remove the Marginal Risk across a small portion of eastern KS/central MS/central IN where morning convection has overturned the environment. Otherwise, the Slight Risk across from north Texas to the Ozarks and Lower Ohio River Valley continues. See previous discussion below for more information.

..Thornton.. 03/04/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Wed Mar 04 2026/

Southern Plains to the Ozarks and Lower Ohio Valley

Well in advance of an amplifying trough over the Great Basin, a low-amplitude southern-stream shortwave trough over the south-central High Plains will continue east-northeastward over the Lower Missouri Valley through tonight. A base-embedded modestly increasing belt of southwesterly mid-level flow (50+ kt) will maximize from northeast Oklahoma/southeast Kansas across the Ozarks, in general proximity to a weak surface low/frontal zone across the region where deep-layer/low-level shear are expected to be maximized.

South of the front, southerly low-level flow will support dewpoints climbing into generally the low to mid 60s F. While cloud cover may remain semi-prevalent across the warm sector, this increasing moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse rates amid filtered daytime heating should support MLCAPE values generally around 1000-1500 J/kg in a narrow corridor along/ahead of the front. Locally greater instability should develop across north-central into central Texas where stronger daytime heating is expected, although deep-layer/low-level shear will be notably weaker, while still sufficient for relatively isolated severe storms.

Across most of the Slight Risk area, effective bulk shear of 35-50 kt will easily support organized convection regionally, although convective mode may tend to be somewhat messy given broad ascent within the modest low-level warm advection regime near the surface front. Additionally, ongoing mostly elevated convection this morning across northeast Oklahoma into southern Missouri and southern Illinois may hamper stronger heating and limit destabilization downstream, with outflow/existing convection contributing to modal complexity later today.

Even with these potential limitations, a broad area of isolated to scattered severe thunderstorm potential exists through tonight. An isolated and/or occasional hail threat may persist with ongoing elevated convection from southern Missouri into southern Indiana/northern Kentucky. Surface-based thunderstorm development should otherwise become more probable across the Ozarks into mid/late afternoon closer to the surface front/surface low and modifying outflow. A mix of supercells and clusters will pose a risk for large hail. Damaging winds will also be possible where steepened low-level lapse rates can develop with daytime heating. Although low-level flow is not forecast to become overly strong, there should be sufficient 0-1 km SRH to support some threat for a couple of tornadoes with any sustained supercells/clusters, particularly across southern Missouri and northern Arkansas.

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

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Outlook for Thursday, March 5

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe storms may develop on Thursday evening and persist into early morning Friday from northwest Texas to southern Kansas. A few tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail could occur.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 041735

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CST Wed Mar 04 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST TEXAS TO SOUTHERN KANSAS

CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE

SUMMARY

Scattered severe storms may develop on Thursday evening and persist into early morning Friday from northwest Texas to southern Kansas. A few tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail could occur.

Synopsis

A low-amplitude shortwave trough will quickly progress from the Mid-MS Valley to the Northeast. A broad positive-tilt upper trough will shift more slowly eastward across the West, reaching the northern High Plains to Four Corners by early Friday. Downstream lee cyclogenesis will occur over eastern CO through Thursday afternoon. A warm front will arc southeast and eventually east from this cyclone. A separate front will be oriented to the northeast and north, accelerating southeast over the northern Great Plains Thursday night. The dryline should only mix slightly east of eastern NM into far western parts of TX.

Southern to central Great Plains

Deepening lee cyclogenesis over eastern CO through the day will yield increasing low-level moisture return beneath a pronounced EML from TX to KS. Initial severe-storm concern will develop in the late afternoon to early evening in the TX Panhandle/northwest TX vicinity and adjacent western OK. Guidance differs markedly with the degree of thunderstorm development along the surface warm front as it advances north. The HRRR/RRFS and MPAS runs are much more aggressive compared to the NAM-Nest and NSSL-ARW cores with sustained storms. Differential insolation/boundary-layer heating across the front and weak mid-level height falls may be adequate for storms ahead of the effective front/dryline intersection in the western TX Panhandle. Should sustained development occur, a strengthening nocturnal low-level jet will maintain an influx of low 60s surface dew points and surface-based instability into Thursday night.

The initial setup would favor discrete supercells capable of large hail and at least a couple tornadoes amid a supercell wind profile and steep mid-level lapse rates. It is plausible that a longer-track/strong supercell or two could become established to the northeast through the evening into the early overnight in parts of western to north-central OK. However, upscale growth into a linear cluster with embedded supercells seems more probable into the overnight, capable of producing all hazards. But with some weakening of near-surface lapse rates anticipated, confidence is low on the degree of significant severe potential with northeastward extent.

Elevated thunderstorms appear likely to develop farther north in the southwest/central NE vicinity and in a broader swath across the Mid-MO Valley overnight. Isolated severe hail and strong gusts could briefly accompany the more robust storms.

..Grams.. 03/04/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z

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Outlook for Friday, March 6

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from late afternoon Friday through Friday night from portions of the central/southern Great Plains to the Midwest. The most probable corridor for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail is across eastern portions of Kansas and Oklahoma to western Missouri.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 041926

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Wed Mar 04 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN KS/OK TO WESTERN MO

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from late afternoon Friday through Friday night from portions of the central/southern Great Plains to the Midwest. The most probable corridor for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail is across eastern portions of Kansas and Oklahoma to western Missouri.

Synopsis

Broad upper trough over the West should split into two distinct impulses by Friday night. Leading shortwave trough should eject from the Four Corners across the central Great Plains to the Upper Mississippi Valley, while a backside cutoff low evolves over the Lower CO Valley. Lead cyclone should track from western KS vicinity across IA to the central Great Lakes. The dryline should mix towards central OK/TX through late afternoon. A surface cold front will accelerate southeastward across the central/southern Great Plains on the backside of the lead cyclone.

Central/southern Great Plains into the Midwest

Most appreciable change this outlook has been to flatten the previously tight gradient to severe probabilities over the Great Plains. The splitting of the broad western trough and positive-tilt of the leading shortwave impulse suggests that surface features on Friday afternoon should lag westward compared to the typically overmixed GFS. Initial storm development should occur across central KS near the triple-point mesolow by mid to late afternoon. Expanding convective coverage is anticipated to the northeast into IA/MO and south into at least northern OK. Available D3 CAM guidance is much less robust than parameterized models with the degree of convective development through early evening towards the Red River and southward into central TX. With near-neutral mid-level height falls, it is plausible that convection south of the latitudinally compact mid-level jetlet will remain isolated. This lowers confidence in the southern extent of highlighted level 3-ENH risk across most of OK.

Across eastern KS, northern OK, and western Missouri, initial supercells will probably grow upscale into a broader QLCS during the evening, with semi-discrete activity favored along the southern flank. Strengthening 850-700 mb southwesterlies suggest damaging wind and QLCS tornado potential could persist across the Mid-MS Valley towards the Lake MI vicinity overnight in a weak MLCAPE/high shear environment. Available CAM guidance does indicate a general alignment of QLCS with the deep-layer shear vector, suggesting of a sporadic severe threat mainly where embedded bowing segments/surges can develop.

Farther south, storm development will become increasingly probable as the accelerating cold front overtakes and merges with the front on Friday night. Outside of frontal convergence and low-level warm advection atop the undercutting front in western TX, large-scale ascent should remain nebulous. Large hail may accompany initial updrafts, with severe wind/tornado potential nocturnally limited.

..Grams.. 03/04/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z

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Outlook for Saturday, March 7

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040956 SPC AC 040956

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Wed Mar 04 2026

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

DISCUSSION

Saturday/Day 4 and Sunday/Day 5

On Saturday at mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the north-central U.S., as flow remains southwesterly from the southern Plains to the Eastern Seaboard. A cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the southern Plains, Ozarks, mid Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are forecast to be mostly in the 60s F with pockets of moderate instability developing in the afternoon. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop and move southeastward into the moist airmass. Although an isolated severe threat will be likely in some areas, uncertainty is considerable concerning the area with the greatest severe threat. The current thinking is that the severe threat will be concentrated in two areas, with one being from south-central Texas northeastward into northern Louisiana, and a second being located in the Ohio Valley. A 15 percent area may need to be added in either of these two areas in later outlooks.

On Sunday, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast along the western Gulf Coast. Isolated storms associated with a marginal severe threat could develop in the afternoon. Large-scale ascent will be limited which should keep any severe potential localized.

Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/Day 8

West-southwesterly mid-level flow is forecast to continue on Monday across much of the central and eastern U.S. Low-level moisture return is forecast to take place over the southern and central Plains, where the models suggest moderate instability will be possible by afternoon. As a low-level jet strengthens during the afternoon and evening, isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop in areas that heat up sufficiently. A severe threat would be possible. However, spatial uncertainty exists concerning where any severe threat will be the greatest.

On Tuesday, model forecasts are in general agreement, moving an upper-level trough northeastward into the southern High Plains. An associated mid-level jet is forecast to eject northeastward ahead of the system. Model forecasts suggest that the airmass ahead of the trough will become moderately unstable by Tuesday afternoon. This combined with strong large-scale ascent should support scattered severe storms in the afternoon and evening. The favored severe threat area is expected from parts of the southern and central Plains eastward into the Ozarks.

On Wednesday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move across the south-central U.S., as a cold front advances eastward into the Southeast. A severe threat may again develop Wednesday afternoon as the airmass ahead of the front becomes unstable. However, there is considerable model spread concerning the timing of features at this extended range.

..Broyles.. 03/04/2026

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Outlook for Sunday, March 8

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040956 SPC AC 040956

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Wed Mar 04 2026

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

DISCUSSION

Saturday/Day 4 and Sunday/Day 5

On Saturday at mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the north-central U.S., as flow remains southwesterly from the southern Plains to the Eastern Seaboard. A cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the southern Plains, Ozarks, mid Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are forecast to be mostly in the 60s F with pockets of moderate instability developing in the afternoon. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop and move southeastward into the moist airmass. Although an isolated severe threat will be likely in some areas, uncertainty is considerable concerning the area with the greatest severe threat. The current thinking is that the severe threat will be concentrated in two areas, with one being from south-central Texas northeastward into northern Louisiana, and a second being located in the Ohio Valley. A 15 percent area may need to be added in either of these two areas in later outlooks.

On Sunday, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast along the western Gulf Coast. Isolated storms associated with a marginal severe threat could develop in the afternoon. Large-scale ascent will be limited which should keep any severe potential localized.

Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/Day 8

West-southwesterly mid-level flow is forecast to continue on Monday across much of the central and eastern U.S. Low-level moisture return is forecast to take place over the southern and central Plains, where the models suggest moderate instability will be possible by afternoon. As a low-level jet strengthens during the afternoon and evening, isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop in areas that heat up sufficiently. A severe threat would be possible. However, spatial uncertainty exists concerning where any severe threat will be the greatest.

On Tuesday, model forecasts are in general agreement, moving an upper-level trough northeastward into the southern High Plains. An associated mid-level jet is forecast to eject northeastward ahead of the system. Model forecasts suggest that the airmass ahead of the trough will become moderately unstable by Tuesday afternoon. This combined with strong large-scale ascent should support scattered severe storms in the afternoon and evening. The favored severe threat area is expected from parts of the southern and central Plains eastward into the Ozarks.

On Wednesday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move across the south-central U.S., as a cold front advances eastward into the Southeast. A severe threat may again develop Wednesday afternoon as the airmass ahead of the front becomes unstable. However, there is considerable model spread concerning the timing of features at this extended range.

..Broyles.. 03/04/2026

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Outlook for Monday, March 9

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040956 SPC AC 040956

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Wed Mar 04 2026

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

DISCUSSION

Saturday/Day 4 and Sunday/Day 5

On Saturday at mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the north-central U.S., as flow remains southwesterly from the southern Plains to the Eastern Seaboard. A cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the southern Plains, Ozarks, mid Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are forecast to be mostly in the 60s F with pockets of moderate instability developing in the afternoon. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop and move southeastward into the moist airmass. Although an isolated severe threat will be likely in some areas, uncertainty is considerable concerning the area with the greatest severe threat. The current thinking is that the severe threat will be concentrated in two areas, with one being from south-central Texas northeastward into northern Louisiana, and a second being located in the Ohio Valley. A 15 percent area may need to be added in either of these two areas in later outlooks.

On Sunday, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast along the western Gulf Coast. Isolated storms associated with a marginal severe threat could develop in the afternoon. Large-scale ascent will be limited which should keep any severe potential localized.

Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/Day 8

West-southwesterly mid-level flow is forecast to continue on Monday across much of the central and eastern U.S. Low-level moisture return is forecast to take place over the southern and central Plains, where the models suggest moderate instability will be possible by afternoon. As a low-level jet strengthens during the afternoon and evening, isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop in areas that heat up sufficiently. A severe threat would be possible. However, spatial uncertainty exists concerning where any severe threat will be the greatest.

On Tuesday, model forecasts are in general agreement, moving an upper-level trough northeastward into the southern High Plains. An associated mid-level jet is forecast to eject northeastward ahead of the system. Model forecasts suggest that the airmass ahead of the trough will become moderately unstable by Tuesday afternoon. This combined with strong large-scale ascent should support scattered severe storms in the afternoon and evening. The favored severe threat area is expected from parts of the southern and central Plains eastward into the Ozarks.

On Wednesday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move across the south-central U.S., as a cold front advances eastward into the Southeast. A severe threat may again develop Wednesday afternoon as the airmass ahead of the front becomes unstable. However, there is considerable model spread concerning the timing of features at this extended range.

..Broyles.. 03/04/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, March 10

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040956 SPC AC 040956

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Wed Mar 04 2026

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

DISCUSSION

Saturday/Day 4 and Sunday/Day 5

On Saturday at mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the north-central U.S., as flow remains southwesterly from the southern Plains to the Eastern Seaboard. A cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the southern Plains, Ozarks, mid Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are forecast to be mostly in the 60s F with pockets of moderate instability developing in the afternoon. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop and move southeastward into the moist airmass. Although an isolated severe threat will be likely in some areas, uncertainty is considerable concerning the area with the greatest severe threat. The current thinking is that the severe threat will be concentrated in two areas, with one being from south-central Texas northeastward into northern Louisiana, and a second being located in the Ohio Valley. A 15 percent area may need to be added in either of these two areas in later outlooks.

On Sunday, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast along the western Gulf Coast. Isolated storms associated with a marginal severe threat could develop in the afternoon. Large-scale ascent will be limited which should keep any severe potential localized.

Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/Day 8

West-southwesterly mid-level flow is forecast to continue on Monday across much of the central and eastern U.S. Low-level moisture return is forecast to take place over the southern and central Plains, where the models suggest moderate instability will be possible by afternoon. As a low-level jet strengthens during the afternoon and evening, isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop in areas that heat up sufficiently. A severe threat would be possible. However, spatial uncertainty exists concerning where any severe threat will be the greatest.

On Tuesday, model forecasts are in general agreement, moving an upper-level trough northeastward into the southern High Plains. An associated mid-level jet is forecast to eject northeastward ahead of the system. Model forecasts suggest that the airmass ahead of the trough will become moderately unstable by Tuesday afternoon. This combined with strong large-scale ascent should support scattered severe storms in the afternoon and evening. The favored severe threat area is expected from parts of the southern and central Plains eastward into the Ozarks.

On Wednesday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move across the south-central U.S., as a cold front advances eastward into the Southeast. A severe threat may again develop Wednesday afternoon as the airmass ahead of the front becomes unstable. However, there is considerable model spread concerning the timing of features at this extended range.

..Broyles.. 03/04/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, March 11

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040956 SPC AC 040956

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Wed Mar 04 2026

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

DISCUSSION

Saturday/Day 4 and Sunday/Day 5

On Saturday at mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the north-central U.S., as flow remains southwesterly from the southern Plains to the Eastern Seaboard. A cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the southern Plains, Ozarks, mid Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are forecast to be mostly in the 60s F with pockets of moderate instability developing in the afternoon. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop and move southeastward into the moist airmass. Although an isolated severe threat will be likely in some areas, uncertainty is considerable concerning the area with the greatest severe threat. The current thinking is that the severe threat will be concentrated in two areas, with one being from south-central Texas northeastward into northern Louisiana, and a second being located in the Ohio Valley. A 15 percent area may need to be added in either of these two areas in later outlooks.

On Sunday, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast along the western Gulf Coast. Isolated storms associated with a marginal severe threat could develop in the afternoon. Large-scale ascent will be limited which should keep any severe potential localized.

Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/Day 8

West-southwesterly mid-level flow is forecast to continue on Monday across much of the central and eastern U.S. Low-level moisture return is forecast to take place over the southern and central Plains, where the models suggest moderate instability will be possible by afternoon. As a low-level jet strengthens during the afternoon and evening, isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop in areas that heat up sufficiently. A severe threat would be possible. However, spatial uncertainty exists concerning where any severe threat will be the greatest.

On Tuesday, model forecasts are in general agreement, moving an upper-level trough northeastward into the southern High Plains. An associated mid-level jet is forecast to eject northeastward ahead of the system. Model forecasts suggest that the airmass ahead of the trough will become moderately unstable by Tuesday afternoon. This combined with strong large-scale ascent should support scattered severe storms in the afternoon and evening. The favored severe threat area is expected from parts of the southern and central Plains eastward into the Ozarks.

On Wednesday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move across the south-central U.S., as a cold front advances eastward into the Southeast. A severe threat may again develop Wednesday afternoon as the airmass ahead of the front becomes unstable. However, there is considerable model spread concerning the timing of features at this extended range.

..Broyles.. 03/04/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Wednesday, March 4

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Thursday, March 5

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Friday, March 6

ANY SEVERE: 30%

Saturday, March 7

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Sunday, March 8

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Monday, March 9

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Tuesday, March 10

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Wednesday, March 11

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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