Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, July 21
Outlook Summary
Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across a broad region from the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast States into tonight. Swaths of damaging wind gusts are expected to be the most common impact, but some tornadoes and hail are possible as well.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 45%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 212001
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026
Valid 212000Z - 221200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC TO THE OHIO VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across a broad region from the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast States into tonight. Swaths of damaging wind gusts are expected to be the most common impact, but some tornadoes and hail are possible as well.
20z Update Mid Atlantic and New England
A complicated convective situation continues across the area with numerous cluster of strong to severe storms ongoing from southern NY/CT/MA to the DelMarVA. A diffuse warm frontal zone from the Hudson valley to Long Island and the Atlantic coast has supported a few instances of stronger rotating supercells and QLCS structures. This focus may continue as additional more discrete storms approach from northern NJ and eastern PA. Otherwise, clustering of storms ahead of the cold front and across VA will pose a risk for damaging gusts through this evening. The primary update to the outlook was to lower probabilities behind the ongoing convection over NY and northeast OH where the air mass has been partially overturned. Isolated damaging gusts and some hail remain possible tonight.
OH Valley
A broken band of storms ahead of a cold front, extending into WV and southwest PA should continue to track east/southeast through this afternoon and into the evening hours. Strong northwesterly flow aloft is supporting moderate deep-layer shear and a mixed mode of supercells and clusters across southern IN/OH and into northern KY. A primary risk for damaging winds is expected given upscale growth as storm coverage increases. However, the large buoyancy (MLCAPE 3000-4000 J/kg) and some supercell structures could support large hail. Some tornado potential will also exist with the semi-discreet supercells and QLCS structures. This appears most likely near a convective modified boundary from astern OH into WV and southwest PA.
Storm coverage should continue to increase this afternoon across western KY and the lower OH Valley. With a predominately linear storm mode expected along the cold front, damaging winds are the most likely hazard. The primary change to the probabilities was to trim behind the front over OH/IN. See the prior outlook for more information.
..Lyons.. 07/21/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026/
Tennessee/Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast
Recent satellite imagery reveals a shortwave trough moving quickly southeastward across the Upper Great Lakes region, embedded within the upper troughing that covers much of eastern Canada and extends down into the Ohio Valley. Moderate mid-level flow accompanies this shortwave, with wind speeds greater than 50 kt sampled around 500 mb on the 12Z ILX, DTX, ILN, and PIT soundings. The strongest flow was sampled at ILX and DTX, and the expectation is for this stronger flow to spread eastward today, moving in tandem with the progressive shortwave.
Showers and thunderstorms are already ongoing downstream of this shortwave, with the highest coverage along and near the pre-frontal trough in Ohio. Recent surface analysis reveals a somewhat complex boundary structure, with a wavy warm front, a diffuse pre-frontal trough, and a cold front. Primary warm front appears to extend west-to-east from southeast Ohio across southern Pennsylvania and into northern New Jersey, far southern New York, and extreme southwest Connecticut. The cold front arcs southwestward from northern Lower Michigan through central Illinois and central Michigan.
Highest overall coverage is anticipated along and ahead of the cold front this afternoon through this evening, with additional development expected farther east (from central Pennsylvania into central Virginia) along the lee trough as well. Highest buoyancy is expected along the western periphery of the cold front from central into western Kentucky, where mid to upper 70s dewpoints are anticipated amid temperatures in the upper 80s/low 90s. Strong buoyancy is still anticipated across Ohio as well. Robust thunderstorm development is expected along the front. Vertical shear is robust enough for supercells, but linear forcing along the front and strong downdraft production will likely lead to quick upscale growth. In either convective mode, damaging gusts (with speeds from 55 to 70 mph) will be the primary risk, with brief tornadoes as a secondary threat, and large hail tertiary.
Farther east, a similar convective environment exists, although with slightly less buoyancy and deep-layer vertical shear. A more outflow-dominant multicell mode is anticipated across the central Virginia vicinity, with a trend towards a more organized mode possible with northern extent. Primary risk will be damaging gusts, including a few around 65 to 70 mph. A somewhat confined corridor of greater tornado potential exists from the Hudson Valley vicinity into western Massachusetts/Connecticut as the warm front lifts northward. Here, enhanced vorticity along the boundary coupled with stronger low-level southerly flow could support a few brief tornadoes.
Great Basin
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across the Great Basin today, supported by strong diurnal heating/mixing and moderate mid-level moisture along the western periphery of the upper ridging centered over the central Rockies. A few strong updrafts/downdrafts are possible, with an attendant risk for strong to severe (i.e. 50 to 65 mph) wind gusts.
Gulf Coast
Tropical Storm Bertha is expected to continue to drift west-northwestward over the northern Gulf tonight from off the coast of the Florida Panhandle toward the southern Mississippi/southern Alabama coast. Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest details.
A strong low-level wind field will approach these coastal areas later today and tonight. However, as is typical for a westward moving tropical cyclone, forecast SRH should remain relatively modest inland. Given the marginal thermodynamic profiles (aside from the rich boundary layer moisture) and limited SRH over land, any Bertha-related mini-supercell potential is expected remain offshore.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Wednesday, July 22
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe thunderstorms will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts across parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic. Additional thunderstorms are expected northward across New England, some of which could produce locally strong wind gusts.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 211728
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe thunderstorms will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts across parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic. Additional thunderstorms are expected northward across New England, some of which could produce locally strong wind gusts.
Synopsis
The pattern on D2/Wednesday will be characterized by upper-level ridging across western US with a more progressive wave pattern within a trough across the eastern US. A cold front will be located roughly from the Mid-Atlantic south into the Carolinas and western Tennessee. This will be the focus of thunderstorm development and severe potential Wednesday afternoon.
Mid-Atlantic into New England
Morning cloud cover will extend across New England to the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday morning, which will likely temper heating and destabilization with northern extent into New England. More filtered heating through broken cloud cover in combination with moist southerly flow should yield moderate instability across portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic. This in combination with strong mid-level flow and resulting strong deep layer shear will support potential for a few organized storms/clusters capable of producing damaging winds and perhaps a tornado. Highest confidence in this potential will extend from the Carolinas to southern Delaware, where strongest heating is anticipated. Strong deep layer shear will extend northward into New England, which may support isolated stronger storms with potential for damaging wind though instability becomes less favorable further north.
Eastern Colorado
High based thunderstorms are expected to develop across the high terrain in eastern Colorado Wednesday afternoon. Marginally unstable and deeply mixed profiles may support a few instances of strong to severe wind. Overall, weak deep layer shear profiles will likely keep this threat too limited for probabilities to be included at this time.
..Thornton.. 07/21/2026
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Thursday, July 23
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Thursday. However, locally gusty winds could occur with thunderstorms across the central High Plains.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 211924
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Thursday. However, locally gusty winds could occur with thunderstorms across the central High Plains.
Discussion
The pattern on D3/Thursday will continue to favor high amplitude ridging across the western US and troughing in the eastern US. Surface high pressure will build in from the Midwest to the Ohio Valley with a cold front extending from the Carolinas into the Mid-South/northern Gulf states. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected along and south of this boundary. Moist and moderately unstable conditions may support few strong storms with water loaded downburst potential, but generally weak shear should limit the overall severe potential.
Across the central High Plains, easterly upslope flow will promote moisture advection into eastern Colorado/ Wyoming. A weak shortwave will rotate through the flow with thunderstorm development expected across the high terrain in eastern Colorado/Wyoming by the afternoon with a gradual shift into the central Plains into the evening. Initially, high based thunderstorms may pose some localized potential for strong to severe wind. Deep layer shear across the central Plains will strengthen, but increasing MLCIN with eastward extent will likely temper severe potential. Overall, locally gusty winds will be possible but organized severe potential appears too low and localized for inclusion of probabilities.
..Thornton.. 07/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Friday, July 24
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, July 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, July 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, July 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, July 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, July 28 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210718 SPC AC 210718
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
Great Lakes/Midwest
An amplified upper ridge will persist across the Plains and Rockies through early next week. Periods of strengthening northwesterly mid/upper flow are expected on the eastern periphery of the upper ridge as a series of upper shortwave troughs move across the Canadian Prairies and glance the Great Lakes vicinity, mainly Day 5-7/Sat-Mon. This could support areas of severe thunderstorm potential across parts of the Upper Midwest to the Ohio Valley vicinity during this time as stronger northwesterly flow overspreads a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. However, both traditional physics-based NWP and ML/AI NWP are inconsistent and/or show relatively low/broad probability areas – increasing uncertainty in timing and spatial delineation of severe potential. Given the proximity to the upper ridge, capping may be a concern. Trends will be monitored and severe probabilities may become necessary is confidence increases in subsequent outlooks.
..Leitman.. 07/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, July 25
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, July 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, July 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, July 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, July 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, July 28 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210718 SPC AC 210718
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
Great Lakes/Midwest
An amplified upper ridge will persist across the Plains and Rockies through early next week. Periods of strengthening northwesterly mid/upper flow are expected on the eastern periphery of the upper ridge as a series of upper shortwave troughs move across the Canadian Prairies and glance the Great Lakes vicinity, mainly Day 5-7/Sat-Mon. This could support areas of severe thunderstorm potential across parts of the Upper Midwest to the Ohio Valley vicinity during this time as stronger northwesterly flow overspreads a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. However, both traditional physics-based NWP and ML/AI NWP are inconsistent and/or show relatively low/broad probability areas – increasing uncertainty in timing and spatial delineation of severe potential. Given the proximity to the upper ridge, capping may be a concern. Trends will be monitored and severe probabilities may become necessary is confidence increases in subsequent outlooks.
..Leitman.. 07/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, July 26
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, July 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, July 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, July 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, July 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, July 28 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210718 SPC AC 210718
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
Great Lakes/Midwest
An amplified upper ridge will persist across the Plains and Rockies through early next week. Periods of strengthening northwesterly mid/upper flow are expected on the eastern periphery of the upper ridge as a series of upper shortwave troughs move across the Canadian Prairies and glance the Great Lakes vicinity, mainly Day 5-7/Sat-Mon. This could support areas of severe thunderstorm potential across parts of the Upper Midwest to the Ohio Valley vicinity during this time as stronger northwesterly flow overspreads a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. However, both traditional physics-based NWP and ML/AI NWP are inconsistent and/or show relatively low/broad probability areas – increasing uncertainty in timing and spatial delineation of severe potential. Given the proximity to the upper ridge, capping may be a concern. Trends will be monitored and severe probabilities may become necessary is confidence increases in subsequent outlooks.
..Leitman.. 07/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, July 27
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, July 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, July 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, July 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, July 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, July 28 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210718 SPC AC 210718
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
Great Lakes/Midwest
An amplified upper ridge will persist across the Plains and Rockies through early next week. Periods of strengthening northwesterly mid/upper flow are expected on the eastern periphery of the upper ridge as a series of upper shortwave troughs move across the Canadian Prairies and glance the Great Lakes vicinity, mainly Day 5-7/Sat-Mon. This could support areas of severe thunderstorm potential across parts of the Upper Midwest to the Ohio Valley vicinity during this time as stronger northwesterly flow overspreads a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. However, both traditional physics-based NWP and ML/AI NWP are inconsistent and/or show relatively low/broad probability areas – increasing uncertainty in timing and spatial delineation of severe potential. Given the proximity to the upper ridge, capping may be a concern. Trends will be monitored and severe probabilities may become necessary is confidence increases in subsequent outlooks.
..Leitman.. 07/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, July 28
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, July 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, July 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, July 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, July 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, July 28 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210718 SPC AC 210718
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
Great Lakes/Midwest
An amplified upper ridge will persist across the Plains and Rockies through early next week. Periods of strengthening northwesterly mid/upper flow are expected on the eastern periphery of the upper ridge as a series of upper shortwave troughs move across the Canadian Prairies and glance the Great Lakes vicinity, mainly Day 5-7/Sat-Mon. This could support areas of severe thunderstorm potential across parts of the Upper Midwest to the Ohio Valley vicinity during this time as stronger northwesterly flow overspreads a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. However, both traditional physics-based NWP and ML/AI NWP are inconsistent and/or show relatively low/broad probability areas – increasing uncertainty in timing and spatial delineation of severe potential. Given the proximity to the upper ridge, capping may be a concern. Trends will be monitored and severe probabilities may become necessary is confidence increases in subsequent outlooks.
..Leitman.. 07/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, July 21
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 45%
- Wednesday, July 22
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 15%
- Thursday, July 23
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Friday, July 24
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, July 25
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, July 26
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, July 27
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, July 28
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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