Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, August 16
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible this evening from parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible in parts of the High Plains.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 170059
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026
Valid 170100Z - 171200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC…AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible this evening from parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible in parts of the High Plains.
Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic
On water vapor imagery, a mid-level shortwave trough is evident in the Ohio Valley within west-northwest flow. This feature is moving into the central Appalachians where surface dewpoints are mostly in the upper 60s and lower 70s F. Moderate instability is analyzed by the RAP across much of the region. Low-level convergence is maximized along a pre-frontal trough in the Mid-Atlantic where isolated strong thunderstorms are ongoing. A secondary max of convergence is located from central Kentucky into western West Virginia, along which an organized line segment is ongoing. These storm clusters are expected to persist for a few more hours.
Ahead of the ongoing storms, the WSR-88D VWPs at Jackson, Kentucky and Blacksburg, Virginia have 0-6 km shear of about 30 knots with nearly unidirectional west to northwesterly winds in the low to mid-levels. The 00Z sounding at Roanoke, Virginia has MLCAPE around 2200 J/kg, with 0-3 km lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. This environment will support a potential for severe wind gusts with the stronger cells this evening.
Further west into the mid Mississippi Valley, strong thunderstorms are currently ongoing along a gradient of moderate to strong instability, analyzed by the RAP in eastern Missouri. The unstable thermodynamic environment along with sufficient deep-layer shear will support an isolated wind-damage threat for a few more hours this evening.
High Plains
Mid-level flow is west-northwesterly over the High Plains this evening. According to water vapor imagery, a shortwave trough is located over eastern Colorado. Ahead of this feature, a moist airmass is present over much of the central Plains, where surface dewpoints are mostly in the 60s F. An axis of moderate instability is analyzed by the RAP from the northern Texas Panhandle northward into northwestern Nebraska. Along and near this axis, multiple small clusters of strong to severe storms are ongoing. The strongest deep-layer shear is analyzed by the RAP from east-central Colorado northward into western Nebraska, where 0-6 km shear is estimated to be in the 30 to 40 knot range. Within this zone, low to mid-level lapse rates are estimated to be around 7 C/km. This environment will be sufficient for an isolated severe threat this evening. Severe wind gusts and hail will be the primary threats.
..Broyles.. 08/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Monday, August 17
Outlook Summary
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon and evening across portions of the northern and central Plains, and parts of the southern Appalachians/Carolinas. Isolated severe gusts may occur over Oklahoma.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 161732
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS…AND FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE CAROLINAS
### SUMMARY
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon and evening across portions of the northern and central Plains, and parts of the southern Appalachians/Carolinas. Isolated severe gusts may occur over Oklahoma.
Northern Plains
Stronger winds aloft will overspread the area on Monday with a front pushing across the region. While temperatures aloft will be cool, low-level moisture will not be excessive.
Storms are expected to form by 20Z over eastern ND and west-central MN, and over the Black Hills. The steep lapse rate environment, with modest MUCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg along with elongated mid to upper level hodographs will favor cells producing hail over 1.00". A greater/more concentrated severe risk is expected near and after 00Z, as activity matures as it moves southeastward into stronger instability from NE into southeast SD. Additional cells are also anticipated over central NE. Large hail is probable with all this activity, with scattered severe gusts as storms merge/cluster during the evening. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out late day/early evening as low-level shear increases with a southwesterly low-level jet.
Southern Appalachians/Carolinas Vicinity
The ridge over the Southeast will weaken a bit as a midlevel waves moves through during the day. Speed at 500 mb will average near 30 kt, with 15-20 kt at 850 mb. This will aid southeastward storm motions as development occurs within the surface trough/wind shift from NC and southern VA into TN. Precipitable water near 2.00" combined with the afternoon well-mixed boundary layer should support gusty outflow winds, with a few severe gusts over 50 kt possible. Activity should wane after about 03Z.
Parts of OK into AR
Dewpoints are forecast to be relatively high near a weakening boundary/wind shift that will extend roughly from the TX Panhandle across central/southern OK and into central AR. Daytime heating will then lead to a narrow east-west oriented corridor of steep boundary layer lapse rates, and strong instability. Shear will be weak, and so will forcing for ascent. However, several CAMs indicate at least isolated cells developing during the late afternoon, and locally severe downbursts may occur.
..Jewell.. 08/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Tuesday, August 18
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected Tuesday afternoon/evening across parts of the central Plains and toward the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 161936
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO LOWER MISSOURI/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected Tuesday afternoon/evening across parts of the central Plains and toward the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valley.
NE/IA/KS/MO
Moderate northwest flow aloft will exist across the region, with some cooling aloft late in the day. Low pressure will develop over western KS into southwest NE ahead of a convectively enhanced front which will drop south across I-80 in NE/IA. The presence of morning thunderstorms may further augment the boundary, and lends uncertainty to positioning. However, a plume of strong heating will exist as southwest low-level winds develop during the day near an east of the surface low, and strong instability may develop across the warm sector.
The area over NE appears quite favorable for supercells given some model progs, with deep-layer shear to 50 kt, and increased SRH near the boundary. Given the expected southeastward storm motions, supercells could remain on any such boundary, with isolated tornado potential. Very large hail may also occur with the late afternoon/early evening cells before likely mergers into an MCS, which may produce damaging winds as far south as northeast KS and northern MO.
Given uncertainties, will maintain 15% coverage, but with conditional CIG1 area.
..Jewell.. 08/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Wednesday, August 19
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, August 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, August 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, August 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, August 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, August 23 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160752 SPC AC 160752
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-5/Wed-Thu – Mid-South to Mid-Atlantic
An amplifying upper pattern is expected mid-week into the weekend, with troughing developing across the eastern half of the CONUS and an upper riding across the western half. As the upper trough digs across the eastern U.S., some severe potential could develop across the Mid-South into the southern Mid-Atlantic on Days 4-5/Wed-Thu. Building surface high pressure across the Great Lakes and stalled upper troughing will result in a slowly sagging surface front arcing across the region. With a very moist airmass in place, thunderstorms are possible, and at least isolated damaging winds could accompany this activity. However, potential appears too limited at this time for 15 percent probabilities at the time scale.
Days 7-8/Sat-Sun – Northern/Central Plains
Some severe potential could develop across the Plains during the weekend on the eastern periphery of the amplified upper ridge. Northwesterly flow aloft will remain enhanced across the region as southerly low-level flow on the back side of the Great Lakes surface high transports rich boundary layer moisture across the region. It is uncertain if capping will preclude thunderstorm development, but if any shortwave impulses migrate through northwesterly flow aloft, some severe risk could develop.
..Leitman.. 08/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, August 20
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, August 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, August 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, August 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, August 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, August 23 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160752 SPC AC 160752
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-5/Wed-Thu – Mid-South to Mid-Atlantic
An amplifying upper pattern is expected mid-week into the weekend, with troughing developing across the eastern half of the CONUS and an upper riding across the western half. As the upper trough digs across the eastern U.S., some severe potential could develop across the Mid-South into the southern Mid-Atlantic on Days 4-5/Wed-Thu. Building surface high pressure across the Great Lakes and stalled upper troughing will result in a slowly sagging surface front arcing across the region. With a very moist airmass in place, thunderstorms are possible, and at least isolated damaging winds could accompany this activity. However, potential appears too limited at this time for 15 percent probabilities at the time scale.
Days 7-8/Sat-Sun – Northern/Central Plains
Some severe potential could develop across the Plains during the weekend on the eastern periphery of the amplified upper ridge. Northwesterly flow aloft will remain enhanced across the region as southerly low-level flow on the back side of the Great Lakes surface high transports rich boundary layer moisture across the region. It is uncertain if capping will preclude thunderstorm development, but if any shortwave impulses migrate through northwesterly flow aloft, some severe risk could develop.
..Leitman.. 08/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, August 21
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, August 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, August 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, August 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, August 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, August 23 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160752 SPC AC 160752
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-5/Wed-Thu – Mid-South to Mid-Atlantic
An amplifying upper pattern is expected mid-week into the weekend, with troughing developing across the eastern half of the CONUS and an upper riding across the western half. As the upper trough digs across the eastern U.S., some severe potential could develop across the Mid-South into the southern Mid-Atlantic on Days 4-5/Wed-Thu. Building surface high pressure across the Great Lakes and stalled upper troughing will result in a slowly sagging surface front arcing across the region. With a very moist airmass in place, thunderstorms are possible, and at least isolated damaging winds could accompany this activity. However, potential appears too limited at this time for 15 percent probabilities at the time scale.
Days 7-8/Sat-Sun – Northern/Central Plains
Some severe potential could develop across the Plains during the weekend on the eastern periphery of the amplified upper ridge. Northwesterly flow aloft will remain enhanced across the region as southerly low-level flow on the back side of the Great Lakes surface high transports rich boundary layer moisture across the region. It is uncertain if capping will preclude thunderstorm development, but if any shortwave impulses migrate through northwesterly flow aloft, some severe risk could develop.
..Leitman.. 08/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, August 22
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, August 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, August 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, August 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, August 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, August 23 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160752 SPC AC 160752
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-5/Wed-Thu – Mid-South to Mid-Atlantic
An amplifying upper pattern is expected mid-week into the weekend, with troughing developing across the eastern half of the CONUS and an upper riding across the western half. As the upper trough digs across the eastern U.S., some severe potential could develop across the Mid-South into the southern Mid-Atlantic on Days 4-5/Wed-Thu. Building surface high pressure across the Great Lakes and stalled upper troughing will result in a slowly sagging surface front arcing across the region. With a very moist airmass in place, thunderstorms are possible, and at least isolated damaging winds could accompany this activity. However, potential appears too limited at this time for 15 percent probabilities at the time scale.
Days 7-8/Sat-Sun – Northern/Central Plains
Some severe potential could develop across the Plains during the weekend on the eastern periphery of the amplified upper ridge. Northwesterly flow aloft will remain enhanced across the region as southerly low-level flow on the back side of the Great Lakes surface high transports rich boundary layer moisture across the region. It is uncertain if capping will preclude thunderstorm development, but if any shortwave impulses migrate through northwesterly flow aloft, some severe risk could develop.
..Leitman.. 08/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, August 23
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, August 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, August 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, August 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, August 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, August 23 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160752 SPC AC 160752
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-5/Wed-Thu – Mid-South to Mid-Atlantic
An amplifying upper pattern is expected mid-week into the weekend, with troughing developing across the eastern half of the CONUS and an upper riding across the western half. As the upper trough digs across the eastern U.S., some severe potential could develop across the Mid-South into the southern Mid-Atlantic on Days 4-5/Wed-Thu. Building surface high pressure across the Great Lakes and stalled upper troughing will result in a slowly sagging surface front arcing across the region. With a very moist airmass in place, thunderstorms are possible, and at least isolated damaging winds could accompany this activity. However, potential appears too limited at this time for 15 percent probabilities at the time scale.
Days 7-8/Sat-Sun – Northern/Central Plains
Some severe potential could develop across the Plains during the weekend on the eastern periphery of the amplified upper ridge. Northwesterly flow aloft will remain enhanced across the region as southerly low-level flow on the back side of the Great Lakes surface high transports rich boundary layer moisture across the region. It is uncertain if capping will preclude thunderstorm development, but if any shortwave impulses migrate through northwesterly flow aloft, some severe risk could develop.
..Leitman.. 08/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, August 16
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Monday, August 17
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Tuesday, August 18
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Wednesday, August 19
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, August 20
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, August 21
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, August 22
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, August 23
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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