Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, April 10
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts remain possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the south-central Plains to the Ozarks. Strong to locally severe storms may also occur from western/northern Nevada into southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho, and also across parts of north-central California.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 101952
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026
Valid 102000Z - 111200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF OREGON…THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA…THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARKS
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts remain possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the south-central Plains to the Ozarks. Strong to locally severe storms may also occur from western/northern Nevada into southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho, and also across parts of north-central California.
20z Update
Minimal changes were made to the prior outlook. A prominent differential heating/outflow boundary associated with a cluster of thunderstorms over OK is forecast to continue sagging southward this afternoon. An increase in storm coverage is possible this afternoon and evening associated with the ongoing cluster and the trailing boundary. With moderate buoyancy weak vertical shear, a low-end risk for damaging gusts and hail could develop. 5% wind and hail probabilities have been expanded slightly farther southeastward.
To the West across the Great Basin, strong mid-level ascent ahead of the upper low over the Pacific Coast was overspreading a marginally moist and buoyant air mass across parts of NV. Strong southerly flow aloft could support a few semi-organized storms or clusters capable of damaging gusts and sporadic hail. 5% wind and hail probabilities have been expanded southward over parts of NV where buoyancy and shear overlap could support some severe potential.
Otherwise, isolated severe storms remain possible across parts of the central Valley of CA and western OR. The forecast remains unchanged, see the prior discussion for more information.
..Lyons.. 04/10/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026/
Southern High Plains/South-central Plains into the Ozarks
Recent surface analysis places a low over the western TX Panhandle, with a cold front extending east-northeastward from this low across northwest and north-central OK, and far southeast KS, before becoming oriented more northeastward across southern and central MO. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing in the vicinity of this boundary, as well modest southeastward-progressing outflow, across far southern KS and northern OK.
The cold front is forecast to trend more stationary throughout the day as heights rise across the Plains and southerly low-level flow persists across the southern Plains, with the outflow following this trend as well. After 06Z, this stationary boundary will likely begin shifting back northward into southern KS as warm front. Additional thunderstorm development is possible amid low-level convergence near both the stationary front and outflow as the airmass modestly destabilizes this afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts and/or marginally severe hail is possible with the strongest storms, but modest shear and buoyancy suggests most storms will be sub-severe.
Farther west, low-level convergence along a sharpening lee trough may contribute to late afternoon thunderstorm development across the southern High Plain, particularly northeast NM. High cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates support the potential for strong downbursts with any deep/more persistent updrafts. Some interaction with the western extent of the frontal zone is possible as well, which could briefly enhance updrafts, contributing to a continued potential for damaging gusts as well as isolated hail.
North-central CA/western OR into the northern Great Basin
Upper low currently centered just off the northern/central CA coast is forecast to become more progressive and negatively tilted throughout the day today. Mid-level moisture and ascent attendant to this wave will support scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon from central/northern CA and western OR into the northern Great Basin and interior Northwest. Cold temperatures aloft (i.e. -20 deg C at 500 mb) and strong diurnal heating will result in steep low/mid-level lapse rates and at least modest buoyancy across much of the region.
A few areas (interior valley of central CA, Willamette Valley in OR, and northern NV/southwest OR/southern ID) appear to have a slightly higher potential for isolated strong to severe storms, largely a result of more diurnal heating/higher afternoon temperatures. Greater buoyancy combined with moderate/strong deep-layer shear will support semi-organized cells/clusters, and perhaps even a few supercells, may develop with an attendant threat of hail and localized severe wind gusts. Deep-layer shear will be a bit weaker across the interior valley of central CA but still sufficient for a few organized storms. The steep lapse rate environment and local terrain influences could also support transient cell rotation and possibly funnels, or even a brief tornado.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Saturday, April 11
Outlook Summary
Scattered thunderstorms producing hail and strong wind gusts will be possible across portions of the central and southern Plains on Saturday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 101730
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Scattered thunderstorms producing hail and strong wind gusts will be possible across portions of the central and southern Plains on Saturday.
Synopsis
A mid-level ridge across the Plains will move east through the day on Saturday with a strong mid-level trough approaching the California coast. In between these 2 features, a mid-level shortwave trough will move from the Great Basin to the Northern Plains. Lee surface troughing will develop across the Front Range. The resulting strengthening low-level southerly flow will bring moisture northward across the Plains.
Southern High Plains
Moderate instability is forecast to develop by early afternoon across West Texas and into eastern New Mexico. Weak inhibition should allow for widespread thunderstorm development by early to mid-afternoon. Relatively weak shear, especially early on will likely result in somewhat nebulous organization and storm mergers which may preclude individual updraft longevity/strength. However, storms are expected to congeal by late afternoon and may result in some more organized wind threat, supported into the overnight period, as the low-level jet strengthens.
Central Plains into the Upper Midwest
Weak height falls are expected to overspread the central Plains through the day on Saturday. As this occurs, isolated to potentially scattered storms are expected along and near the diffuse dryline. Shear will remain somewhat weak across this region and therefore, some hail/wind threat is possible, but a greater threat is not anticipated. Guidance shows a small jet-streak ejecting across central Kansas during the day Saturday. This may provide a slightly more favorable zone of shear across central Kansas and southeast Nebraska Saturday afternoon/evening. Forecast soundings show an uncapped environment, but without an initiating boundary, storm development remains uncertain. Any mesoscale lift associated with this mid-level jet streak could result in an isolated supercell during the afternoon/evening, but this scenario remains conditional.
Iowa into southern Minnesota
As the low-level jet strengthens Saturday night, isentropic ascent will increase and thunderstorms will develop across the Upper Midwest. Some 12Z CAM guidance has hinted at some additional elevated thunderstorms across northern Iowa and southern Minnesota in the wake of the primary zone of ascent. This is likely associated with the same jet streak moving across Kansas during the day. If storms develop within this zone, forecast soundings support some large hail threat. Therefore, the Marginal Risk has been expanded to cover this threat.
Central California
A line of showers and thunderstorms will approach the California coast Saturday afternoon. Forecast soundings show relatively weak instability ahead of this line (100 to 200 J/kg MLCAPE). However, 40 knots of flow in the lowest 1km may be sufficient to mix down some of these stronger winds and result in some severe wind threat Saturday afternoon/evening.
Great Basin Vicinity
Given the well-mixed, steep lapse-rate environment a few of the storms which develop across the Great Basin vicinity could have some strong wind gusts. Relatively weak instability may keep these stronger gusts somewhat sporadic. Therefore, a Marginal Risk will not be introduced at this time.
..Bentley.. 04/10/2026
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Sunday, April 12
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern and central Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 101931
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS…WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA…AND NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern and central Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday.
Synopsis
On Sunday, a ridge will become established across the eastern CONUS with a trough advancing slowly inland across the West. A weak mid-level shortwave trough will move from the central Plains to the Great Lakes during the period. Persistent mid-level flow across the Rockies will continue lee troughing and northward moisture transport across the Plains.
Central/Southern Plains
A large area of precipitation is expected to be ongoing Sunday morning from central Oklahoma to central Texas. This is expected to move slowly northeast through the day. Subsidence in the wake of the morning shortwave trough associated with this activity should allow for recovery ahead of the dryline from West Texas to central Kansas. In addition, southwesterly to west-southwesterly flow aloft and a well-established EML should assist in erosion of cloud cover across this region by late morning. Therefore, by late Sunday afternoon, moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop ahead of the dryline.
Forcing across the warm sector remains weak and casts considerable conditionality to the forecast. Guidance shows mostly neutral heights across the dryline during the day. In addition, the dryline remains relatively diffuse which would not support the strong convergent circulations necessary for convective initiation. However, it is worth noting that much of the guidance has a dryline orientation oriented somewhat northeast to southwest. Therefore, any convection which develops within this zone may have a long enough residence time to mature before moving off of the dryline. Given the expectation for minimal inhibition during the afternoon, this may favor storm development along particular mesoscale corridors along the dryline Sunday afternoon/early evening in an otherwise weakly forced environment. Given moderate to potentially strong instability and moderate shear, large hail (including the potential for 2+ inch hail) will likely be the primary hazard with any supercells that develop.
Central/South Texas
12Z guidance is fairly consistent with the depiction of a mid-level shortwave trough moving across northern Mexico during the day Sunday. Given the strong instability across northern Mexico and south Texas, it would seem likely for storms to develop along the higher terrain of northern Mexico during the afternoon/evening ahead of this trough. Strong instability downstream could maintain these storms through the evening with some potential for upscale growth (such as shown by the RRFS). However, significant inhibition on forecast soundings and minimal QPF signal from the global guidance, combined with minimal convection over the higher terrain in Mexico from the other CAM guidance out through 00Z casts some doubt on this scenario.
An additional scenario is possible across central Texas. At the southern end of the morning convection, continued storm development is possible within a supercell environment. This scenario is less certain given rising heights aloft and will likely be dictated by the character of the cold pool from Saturday night/Sunday morning storms. However, this is a scenario depicted by some guidance (most notably the ECMWF) which could have a locally higher severe weather threat across this region on Sunday afternoon.
Upper Midwest
A conditional supercell environment will also exist across the Upper Midwest ahead of a surface low, though severe risk will depend on timing of the mid-level shortwave trough. Uncertainties regarding storm coverage remain, but will maintain the Marginal Risk and trends will be monitored.
..Bentley.. 04/10/2026
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Monday, April 13
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, April 13 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, April 14 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, April 15 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Thursday, April 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, April 17 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100828 SPC AC 100828
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-6/Mon-Wed – Central/Southern Plains to the Midwest
There is quite a bit of uncertainty regarding severe potential/evolution during the Monday-Wednesday period. An upper trough will slowly pivot across the West on Monday, and emerge over the central/southern Rockies by early Wednesday before finally ejecting across the Plains and toward the Mid/Upper MS Valley on Wednesday. During this time, broad southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley.
On Monday, a surface low will develop over the northern/central Plains, with a dryline extending southward across KS/OK/TX and a warm front extending across southern MN/WI. Several lead shortwave impulses will move across the Plains, though height tendencies will remain mostly neutral. Nevertheless, cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and increasing boundary layer moisture (surface dewpoints in the low/mid 60s F) will support moderate to strong destabilization. During the evening, a southwesterly low-level jet will increase across the Plains, overspreading the surface dryline. Vertically veering wind profiles and 30-40 kt effective shear magnitudes would support supercells capable of all hazards, though storm coverage remains uncertain.
By Tuesday, the GFS becomes more progressive with the western trough, ejecting it into the Plains by early Wednesday, whereas the ECMWF hangs the trough back west and is slower. Nevertheless, a similar airmass will be in place across the warm sector east of a dryline across the Plains and to the south of a warm front draped across the Great Lakes. Isolated convection may develop along the dryline across the Plains, posing a supercell/all-hazards risk. Higher storm coverage appears more likely across portions of the Mid/Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes vicinity closer to a surface low.
On Wednesday, the upper trough should progress from the Plains to the Great Lakes while weakening some. A surface cold front will develop southeast across portions of the central U.S. and some severe risk should persist along/ahead of this boundary. How convection evolves on Tuesday into Wednesday will impact where the greatest severe risk will develop, but at least some risk should exist from portions of the southern Plains to the Mid-MS Valley.
Days 7-8/Thu-Fri
Predictability is low heading into the end of the forecast period on Thursday and Friday as large spread exists among medium range guidance. However, western U.S. upper troughing may persist, suggesting some severe thunderstorm potential could persist for parts of the Plains late in the work week.
..Leitman.. 04/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, April 14
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, April 13 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, April 14 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, April 15 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Thursday, April 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, April 17 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100828 SPC AC 100828
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-6/Mon-Wed – Central/Southern Plains to the Midwest
There is quite a bit of uncertainty regarding severe potential/evolution during the Monday-Wednesday period. An upper trough will slowly pivot across the West on Monday, and emerge over the central/southern Rockies by early Wednesday before finally ejecting across the Plains and toward the Mid/Upper MS Valley on Wednesday. During this time, broad southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley.
On Monday, a surface low will develop over the northern/central Plains, with a dryline extending southward across KS/OK/TX and a warm front extending across southern MN/WI. Several lead shortwave impulses will move across the Plains, though height tendencies will remain mostly neutral. Nevertheless, cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and increasing boundary layer moisture (surface dewpoints in the low/mid 60s F) will support moderate to strong destabilization. During the evening, a southwesterly low-level jet will increase across the Plains, overspreading the surface dryline. Vertically veering wind profiles and 30-40 kt effective shear magnitudes would support supercells capable of all hazards, though storm coverage remains uncertain.
By Tuesday, the GFS becomes more progressive with the western trough, ejecting it into the Plains by early Wednesday, whereas the ECMWF hangs the trough back west and is slower. Nevertheless, a similar airmass will be in place across the warm sector east of a dryline across the Plains and to the south of a warm front draped across the Great Lakes. Isolated convection may develop along the dryline across the Plains, posing a supercell/all-hazards risk. Higher storm coverage appears more likely across portions of the Mid/Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes vicinity closer to a surface low.
On Wednesday, the upper trough should progress from the Plains to the Great Lakes while weakening some. A surface cold front will develop southeast across portions of the central U.S. and some severe risk should persist along/ahead of this boundary. How convection evolves on Tuesday into Wednesday will impact where the greatest severe risk will develop, but at least some risk should exist from portions of the southern Plains to the Mid-MS Valley.
Days 7-8/Thu-Fri
Predictability is low heading into the end of the forecast period on Thursday and Friday as large spread exists among medium range guidance. However, western U.S. upper troughing may persist, suggesting some severe thunderstorm potential could persist for parts of the Plains late in the work week.
..Leitman.. 04/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, April 15
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, April 13 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, April 14 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, April 15 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Thursday, April 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, April 17 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100828 SPC AC 100828
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-6/Mon-Wed – Central/Southern Plains to the Midwest
There is quite a bit of uncertainty regarding severe potential/evolution during the Monday-Wednesday period. An upper trough will slowly pivot across the West on Monday, and emerge over the central/southern Rockies by early Wednesday before finally ejecting across the Plains and toward the Mid/Upper MS Valley on Wednesday. During this time, broad southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley.
On Monday, a surface low will develop over the northern/central Plains, with a dryline extending southward across KS/OK/TX and a warm front extending across southern MN/WI. Several lead shortwave impulses will move across the Plains, though height tendencies will remain mostly neutral. Nevertheless, cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and increasing boundary layer moisture (surface dewpoints in the low/mid 60s F) will support moderate to strong destabilization. During the evening, a southwesterly low-level jet will increase across the Plains, overspreading the surface dryline. Vertically veering wind profiles and 30-40 kt effective shear magnitudes would support supercells capable of all hazards, though storm coverage remains uncertain.
By Tuesday, the GFS becomes more progressive with the western trough, ejecting it into the Plains by early Wednesday, whereas the ECMWF hangs the trough back west and is slower. Nevertheless, a similar airmass will be in place across the warm sector east of a dryline across the Plains and to the south of a warm front draped across the Great Lakes. Isolated convection may develop along the dryline across the Plains, posing a supercell/all-hazards risk. Higher storm coverage appears more likely across portions of the Mid/Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes vicinity closer to a surface low.
On Wednesday, the upper trough should progress from the Plains to the Great Lakes while weakening some. A surface cold front will develop southeast across portions of the central U.S. and some severe risk should persist along/ahead of this boundary. How convection evolves on Tuesday into Wednesday will impact where the greatest severe risk will develop, but at least some risk should exist from portions of the southern Plains to the Mid-MS Valley.
Days 7-8/Thu-Fri
Predictability is low heading into the end of the forecast period on Thursday and Friday as large spread exists among medium range guidance. However, western U.S. upper troughing may persist, suggesting some severe thunderstorm potential could persist for parts of the Plains late in the work week.
..Leitman.. 04/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, April 16
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, April 13 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, April 14 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, April 15 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Thursday, April 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, April 17 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100828 SPC AC 100828
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-6/Mon-Wed – Central/Southern Plains to the Midwest
There is quite a bit of uncertainty regarding severe potential/evolution during the Monday-Wednesday period. An upper trough will slowly pivot across the West on Monday, and emerge over the central/southern Rockies by early Wednesday before finally ejecting across the Plains and toward the Mid/Upper MS Valley on Wednesday. During this time, broad southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley.
On Monday, a surface low will develop over the northern/central Plains, with a dryline extending southward across KS/OK/TX and a warm front extending across southern MN/WI. Several lead shortwave impulses will move across the Plains, though height tendencies will remain mostly neutral. Nevertheless, cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and increasing boundary layer moisture (surface dewpoints in the low/mid 60s F) will support moderate to strong destabilization. During the evening, a southwesterly low-level jet will increase across the Plains, overspreading the surface dryline. Vertically veering wind profiles and 30-40 kt effective shear magnitudes would support supercells capable of all hazards, though storm coverage remains uncertain.
By Tuesday, the GFS becomes more progressive with the western trough, ejecting it into the Plains by early Wednesday, whereas the ECMWF hangs the trough back west and is slower. Nevertheless, a similar airmass will be in place across the warm sector east of a dryline across the Plains and to the south of a warm front draped across the Great Lakes. Isolated convection may develop along the dryline across the Plains, posing a supercell/all-hazards risk. Higher storm coverage appears more likely across portions of the Mid/Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes vicinity closer to a surface low.
On Wednesday, the upper trough should progress from the Plains to the Great Lakes while weakening some. A surface cold front will develop southeast across portions of the central U.S. and some severe risk should persist along/ahead of this boundary. How convection evolves on Tuesday into Wednesday will impact where the greatest severe risk will develop, but at least some risk should exist from portions of the southern Plains to the Mid-MS Valley.
Days 7-8/Thu-Fri
Predictability is low heading into the end of the forecast period on Thursday and Friday as large spread exists among medium range guidance. However, western U.S. upper troughing may persist, suggesting some severe thunderstorm potential could persist for parts of the Plains late in the work week.
..Leitman.. 04/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, April 17
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, April 13 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, April 14 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, April 15 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Thursday, April 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, April 17 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100828 SPC AC 100828
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-6/Mon-Wed – Central/Southern Plains to the Midwest
There is quite a bit of uncertainty regarding severe potential/evolution during the Monday-Wednesday period. An upper trough will slowly pivot across the West on Monday, and emerge over the central/southern Rockies by early Wednesday before finally ejecting across the Plains and toward the Mid/Upper MS Valley on Wednesday. During this time, broad southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley.
On Monday, a surface low will develop over the northern/central Plains, with a dryline extending southward across KS/OK/TX and a warm front extending across southern MN/WI. Several lead shortwave impulses will move across the Plains, though height tendencies will remain mostly neutral. Nevertheless, cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and increasing boundary layer moisture (surface dewpoints in the low/mid 60s F) will support moderate to strong destabilization. During the evening, a southwesterly low-level jet will increase across the Plains, overspreading the surface dryline. Vertically veering wind profiles and 30-40 kt effective shear magnitudes would support supercells capable of all hazards, though storm coverage remains uncertain.
By Tuesday, the GFS becomes more progressive with the western trough, ejecting it into the Plains by early Wednesday, whereas the ECMWF hangs the trough back west and is slower. Nevertheless, a similar airmass will be in place across the warm sector east of a dryline across the Plains and to the south of a warm front draped across the Great Lakes. Isolated convection may develop along the dryline across the Plains, posing a supercell/all-hazards risk. Higher storm coverage appears more likely across portions of the Mid/Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes vicinity closer to a surface low.
On Wednesday, the upper trough should progress from the Plains to the Great Lakes while weakening some. A surface cold front will develop southeast across portions of the central U.S. and some severe risk should persist along/ahead of this boundary. How convection evolves on Tuesday into Wednesday will impact where the greatest severe risk will develop, but at least some risk should exist from portions of the southern Plains to the Mid-MS Valley.
Days 7-8/Thu-Fri
Predictability is low heading into the end of the forecast period on Thursday and Friday as large spread exists among medium range guidance. However, western U.S. upper troughing may persist, suggesting some severe thunderstorm potential could persist for parts of the Plains late in the work week.
..Leitman.. 04/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, April 10
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Saturday, April 11
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Sunday, April 12
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Monday, April 13
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Tuesday, April 14
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Wednesday, April 15
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Thursday, April 16
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, April 17
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.
Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.
About Severe Weather Outlook . com
SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.
- tornado hq - live severe weather warnings
- cyclocane - hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones
- tornado solitaire - play cards while you monitor the US severe weather threat
- tertremo - live view of earthquakes around the world
- earthquake solitaire - get live earthquake updates as you play your favorite card game