Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, October 16
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with wind-damage and localized brief-tornado potential are expected across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, mainly this afternoon and early evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 30%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 160556
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with wind-damage and localized brief-tornado potential are expected across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, mainly this afternoon and early evening.
Mid-Atlantic into southern New England
A deep, positive-tilt mid/upper-level trough is forecast to further amplify as it spreads over the eastern CONUS today. A surface low initially near the lower Great Lakes will move quickly eastward toward northern New England by evening. A trailing cold front will sweep through the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast from this afternoon into tonight.
In the wake of early-day clouds and precipitation, seasonably rich low-level moisture and modest diurnal heating will result in sufficient destabilization for storm development along the front. Very weak lapse rates above 500 mb will constrain MLCAPE magnitudes to the 500-1000 J/kg range, and result in rather low-topped convection. However, in areas where temperatures can rise to near/above 70 F, relatively robust buoyancy near/below 500 mb (characterized by lifted indices in the -4 to -6 C range) will develop prior to the frontal passage. This buoyancy will be sufficient for development of occasionally organized storm structures, in the presence of strengthening deep-layer flow/shear. 35-45 kt of flow in the 1-2 km AGL layer will support potential for strong/damaging gusts with any sufficiently robust convection.
Generally front-parallel flow may result in a primarily linear mode as convective coverage increases, though 40+ kt of effective shear will support potential for embedded low-topped supercells. A localized wind-damage threat may develop early this afternoon from WV/western PA into southern NY, with initial frontal development. The wind-damage threat is expected to increase through the afternoon as storms spread eastward into a somewhat warmer and more unstable environment across eastern PA, NJ, and vicinity. Rather strong low-level shear will also support some brief-tornado potential with QLCS circulations and/or embedded supercell structures.
Some wind-damage potential could spread into southern New England by this evening, though marine-influenced low-level stability should eventually constrain the eastward extent of the threat.
..Dean/Chalmers.. 10/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Saturday, October 17
Outlook Summary
No severe weather is expected tomorrow (Saturday).
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 160524
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
No severe weather is expected tomorrow (Saturday).
Synopsis
Upper ridging and a surface anticyclone will overspread most of the CONUS as an upper trough ejects into the Atlantic tomorrow (Saturday). A relatively cool, stable airmass accompanying the surface anticyclone will suppress thunderstorm development over most locales. A surface cold front associated with the exiting upper trough will sweep across the FL Peninsula during the day, providing enough lift of a preceding moist airmass to support a couple of thunderstorms. Scant buoyancy, driven by cooler mid-level temperatures, will accompany a mid-level impulse over the Lower Colorado River Basin, where enough lift may be present to support a few lightning flashes.
..Squitieri.. 10/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Sunday, October 18
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected anywhere across the Contiguous United States on Sunday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 160649
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected anywhere across the Contiguous United States on Sunday.
Synopsis
Upper ridging will prevail across the central CONUS as a weak 500 mb cutoff low meanders off of the East Coast and broad, low-amplitude upper troughing dominates the Interior West on Sunday. A surface anticyclone will overspread the CONUS east of the MS River while surface troughing occurs across the Great Plains. Despite this surface troughing, medium-range guidance shows moist trajectories across the Gulf oriented away from the U.S. shoreline, suggesting that a stable airmass will remain over the CONUS. Therefore, thunderstorm potential should be hindered over most locales. The one exception may be southern FL into the Keys, where lingering low-level moisture in a post-cold-frontal airmass may support isolated thunderstorm development during the afternoon.
..Squitieri.. 10/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Monday, October 19
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, October 19 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, October 20 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, October 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, October 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, October 23 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160752 SPC AC 160752
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
A rather stagnant upper-air pattern will be in place across the CONUS into early next week, with an upper ridge continuing over the central U.S. as a mid-level cut-off low meanders along the Atlantic coastline and an upper trough gradually amplifies along the West Coast. By the middle to end of next week, the West Coast upper trough will advance eastward toward the Rockies, encouraging surface lee troughing and subsequent low-level moisture return (albeit modest) across the Great Plains states. Thunderstorm development is possible, especially across portions of the southern High Plains Days 6-7 (next Wednesday-Thursday). However, deterministic guidance suggests that little overlap of meaningful buoyancy and vertical wind shear will take place over the southern High Plains next Wednesday-Thursday, with calibrated ML/AI guidance only hinting at a severe threat that will be isolated at best. Therefore, severe probabilities have been withheld this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 10/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, October 20
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, October 19 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, October 20 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, October 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, October 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, October 23 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160752 SPC AC 160752
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
A rather stagnant upper-air pattern will be in place across the CONUS into early next week, with an upper ridge continuing over the central U.S. as a mid-level cut-off low meanders along the Atlantic coastline and an upper trough gradually amplifies along the West Coast. By the middle to end of next week, the West Coast upper trough will advance eastward toward the Rockies, encouraging surface lee troughing and subsequent low-level moisture return (albeit modest) across the Great Plains states. Thunderstorm development is possible, especially across portions of the southern High Plains Days 6-7 (next Wednesday-Thursday). However, deterministic guidance suggests that little overlap of meaningful buoyancy and vertical wind shear will take place over the southern High Plains next Wednesday-Thursday, with calibrated ML/AI guidance only hinting at a severe threat that will be isolated at best. Therefore, severe probabilities have been withheld this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 10/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, October 21
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, October 19 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, October 20 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, October 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, October 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, October 23 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160752 SPC AC 160752
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
A rather stagnant upper-air pattern will be in place across the CONUS into early next week, with an upper ridge continuing over the central U.S. as a mid-level cut-off low meanders along the Atlantic coastline and an upper trough gradually amplifies along the West Coast. By the middle to end of next week, the West Coast upper trough will advance eastward toward the Rockies, encouraging surface lee troughing and subsequent low-level moisture return (albeit modest) across the Great Plains states. Thunderstorm development is possible, especially across portions of the southern High Plains Days 6-7 (next Wednesday-Thursday). However, deterministic guidance suggests that little overlap of meaningful buoyancy and vertical wind shear will take place over the southern High Plains next Wednesday-Thursday, with calibrated ML/AI guidance only hinting at a severe threat that will be isolated at best. Therefore, severe probabilities have been withheld this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 10/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, October 22
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, October 19 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, October 20 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, October 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, October 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, October 23 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160752 SPC AC 160752
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
A rather stagnant upper-air pattern will be in place across the CONUS into early next week, with an upper ridge continuing over the central U.S. as a mid-level cut-off low meanders along the Atlantic coastline and an upper trough gradually amplifies along the West Coast. By the middle to end of next week, the West Coast upper trough will advance eastward toward the Rockies, encouraging surface lee troughing and subsequent low-level moisture return (albeit modest) across the Great Plains states. Thunderstorm development is possible, especially across portions of the southern High Plains Days 6-7 (next Wednesday-Thursday). However, deterministic guidance suggests that little overlap of meaningful buoyancy and vertical wind shear will take place over the southern High Plains next Wednesday-Thursday, with calibrated ML/AI guidance only hinting at a severe threat that will be isolated at best. Therefore, severe probabilities have been withheld this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 10/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, October 23
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, October 19 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, October 20 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, October 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, October 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, October 23 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160752 SPC AC 160752
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
A rather stagnant upper-air pattern will be in place across the CONUS into early next week, with an upper ridge continuing over the central U.S. as a mid-level cut-off low meanders along the Atlantic coastline and an upper trough gradually amplifies along the West Coast. By the middle to end of next week, the West Coast upper trough will advance eastward toward the Rockies, encouraging surface lee troughing and subsequent low-level moisture return (albeit modest) across the Great Plains states. Thunderstorm development is possible, especially across portions of the southern High Plains Days 6-7 (next Wednesday-Thursday). However, deterministic guidance suggests that little overlap of meaningful buoyancy and vertical wind shear will take place over the southern High Plains next Wednesday-Thursday, with calibrated ML/AI guidance only hinting at a severe threat that will be isolated at best. Therefore, severe probabilities have been withheld this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 10/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, October 16
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 30%
- Saturday, October 17
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Sunday, October 18
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Monday, October 19
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, October 20
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, October 21
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, October 22
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, October 23
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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