Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Friday, August 28

Outlook Summary

Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across the central and northern Plains, northern Georgia into the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic, central and eastern Maine, and from parts of the Great Basin and Desert Southwest into the northern Rockies.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 281942

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Valid 282000Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS…GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES…NORTH GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC…AND PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MAINE

### SUMMARY

Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across the central and northern Plains, northern Georgia into the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic, central and eastern Maine, and from parts of the Great Basin and Desert Southwest into the northern Rockies.

20z Update

The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor edits required - primarily to the general thunder line to reflect recent convective trends. Weak/poorly organized convection ongoing across the Mid-Atlantic and portions of Maine should continue to pose a localized severe threat (mainly damaging wind) through late afternoon. See MCDs #2162 and #2163 for additional short-term details. Transient downbursts have been noted across the greater Houston, TX area over the past 1-2 hours as thunderstorms develop along the sea breeze. While small swaths of damaging wind may occur with the more intense downbursts, this threat is expected to remain fairly transient given poor deep-layer wind shear across the region (wind speeds are generally 15 knots or less through the column per regional VWPs).

Across the Great Basin, slight expansions of the 5% wind probabilities were made to better reflect trends in recent time-lagged CAM guidance. Some of the more aggressive solutions - notably recent runs of the RRFS - hint at one or more corridors of higher severe wind potential across eastern WY into SD as high-based convection encounters richer low-level moisture/buoyancy over the Plains. However, these solutions are exhibiting a considerable warm bias compared to current observations and suggest that any residual inhibition should be mixed out by this point in the day. Latest GOES imagery and regional 18z soundings both depict lingering inhibition, which casts considerable uncertainty onto the accuracy of the more aggressive solutions.

..Moore.. 08/28/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026/

Maine

Morning surface analysis places a low over eastern Quebec, with a cold front extending southward from this low through northern NY before arcing more southwestward and becoming increasingly diffuse across the Upper OH Valley. A shortwave trough is forecast to progress through southern Quebec towards the St. Lawrence Valley today. The surface low is forecast to eject northeastward in response, with its attendant cold front sweeping eastward across ME. A moist airmass precedes this front, with current observations sampling mid to upper 60s dewpoints. This airmass should destabilize amid filtered daytime heating ahead of the front, although poor mid-level lapse will limit the overall buoyancy. Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated as the cold front interacts with this modestly buoyant airmass. A few strong to severe storms are possible, but deep-layer shear largely parallel to the frontal boundary will contribute to a predominantly linear mode and a likely trend toward undercutting of new updrafts. Even so, any updrafts that can mature could organize, potentially becoming supercell storms capable of locally wind gusts and hail.

Mid-Atlantic into Georgia

Morning surface analysis places a low off the southern New England coast and another over southern NJ (near the ongoing thunderstorms). A weak front extends through these two lows, continuing southwestward across the Carolina Piedmont into northern GA. Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along the front this afternoon, with slow-moving but strong storms possible. The stronger (but still modest) deep-layer shear will occur across VA and NC, with the stronger buoyancy displaced farther south across SC and GA. Even so, the expectation is that a combination of moderate CAPE, high PWAT values, and limited deep-layer shear will promote isolated strong storms capable of water-loaded downbursts.

Great Basin through Wyoming.. A belt of stronger mid-level flow currently extends from central CA through the northern Rockies between the upper troughing over western Canada and the upper ridging centered over the Four Corners. Low-amplitude shortwave troughs embedded within this enhanced flow, and associated ascent and mid-level moisture, will contribute to thunderstorm development this afternoon. A deeply mixed boundary layer is anticipated throughout much of this region, suggesting any of the stronger, more persistent storms could produce damaging gusts. Highest storm coverage is expected from eastern NV into central/northern UT, resulting in a relatively greater threat for damaging gusts within this corridor.

Dakotas into western Minnesota and northern Iowa

There could potentially be two rounds of convection across the northern Plains today. The first will be with any of the high-based convection from WY as it spreads eastward into western Dakotas, where greater low-level moisture and buoyancy will be in place. The greater buoyancy could result in reintensification and a few bowing structures capable of producing locally damaging wind gusts and hail.

Additional warm-air advection associated development is then possible later this evening as the low-level jet strengthens over the Plains. These elevated storms should develop within an environment characterized by moderate buoyancy and deep-layer shear, suggesting a few supercells capable of large hail are possible initially. Over time, some upscale growth is possible, which could result in a low-probability risk for damaging gusts over southwest MN and adjacent northwest IA early tomorrow morning.

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

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Outlook for Saturday, August 29

Outlook Summary

Widely scattered strong to severe storms are expected across parts of the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. Severe wind gusts are the main threat. Scattered severe storms are also likely across portions of the northern High Plains, with potential for large hail and damaging wind.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 281725

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Widely scattered strong to severe storms are expected across parts of the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. Severe wind gusts are the main threat. Scattered severe storms are also likely across portions of the northern High Plains, with potential for large hail and damaging wind.

Synopsis

The axis of the western US ridge will shift eastward centering across the Midwest D2/Saturday as a mid-level low digs southward from the Pacific Northwest. Strengthening southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the region from the northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies/Intermountain west. With the increase in mid-level flow across the northern Rockies, lee troughing will increase across the central/northern Plains, with a lee cyclone developing across the western Dakotas.

Northern Great Basin into the Northern Rockies

Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within a broad region of greater ascent across the Northern Great Basin into the Northern Rockies. Moisture will be primarily mid-level, with deeply mixed profiles, steep low to mid-level lapse rates, and fairly large dew point spreads near the surface. Though boundary layer moisture will be limited, steep lapse rates and heating will support at least moderate instability by the afternoon. With 40-50 kt 500 mb flow aloft, sufficiently strong deep layer speed shear will promote a few organized storms and transient supercells capable of damaging wind and marginally severe hail.

Northern High Plains

Upslope flow near the surface low in the Dakotas should promote development of thunderstorms near the Black Hills and across portions of the high terrain in eastern Wyoming/southeastern Montana. Strengthening southerly flow will bring moisture northward, with moderate to strong instability developing by the afternoon across the western/central Dakotas. Elongated and largely straight hodographs and deep layer shear around 40 kts will support supercells capable of large hail and damaging wind.

Across eastern Wyoming, there is low confidence in a more organized cluster evolving through time and moving into northern Nebraska. Recent CAM guidance suggests a more focused corridor of severe wind potential. The Marginal Risk was expanded southward to account for this potential.

..Thornton.. 08/28/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Sunday, August 30

Outlook Summary

At least isolated severe storms, accompanied by mainly a severe wind and hail threat, are possible across portions of the central and northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 281916

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY

### SUMMARY

At least isolated severe storms, accompanied by mainly a severe wind and hail threat, are possible across portions of the central and northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday.

Synopsis

The upper-level low across the Pacific Northwest will lift northward into Canada on D3/Sunday as the ridge across the central US shifts gradually eastward. Multiple shortwave troughs will rotate through the northern periphery of the ridge across northern Rockies into the northern Plains, with strengthening mid-level flow overspreading the northern Plains. A surface low will develop across the northern Plains, preceded by a warm front that extends from the Dakotas into the Upper MS Valley as a cold front sags south-southeastward across the central Plains.

Portions of the Northern Plains to the Upper MS Valley

Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected through the morning and evening of D3/Sunday. Convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the period across the Dakotas into central Minnesota near the warm front within the warm advection regime, with some potential for damaging wind and transient supercell structures given strong shear profiles. A mix of multicells and supercells may redevelop by the afternoon/early evening from eastern Montana into the western/central Dakotas, with one or more clusters potentially growing upscale into an MCS. Severe wind and hail will be the main threats with multicell/supercell structures, with perhaps some risk of a wind swath should an MCS materialize.

Portions of the Central Plains

Further south across the central Plains, more substantial capping leads to a more conditional threat. The strengthening low-level jet in the evening may aid in overcoming MLCIN and development of elevated convection. Supercell wind profiles will be in place with steep lapse rates and moderate to strong instability. Should storms be able to initiate, they will pose a wind and hail risk into the late evening.

..Thornton.. 08/28/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Monday, August 31

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280849 SPC AC 280849

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Valid 311200Z - 051200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper ridge will meander eastward across the central and eastern CONUS through the week, with multiple mid-level shortwave troughs and other smaller embedded impulses poised to pivot around the ridge and traverse the northern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic. Several days of at least scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected along the periphery of the upper ridge as appreciably strong mid-level flow overspreads a seasonably moist boundary layer, especially during the middle of the week. By the end of the week, appreciable instability builds back into the northern Plains and upper MS Valley, but predictability is too low to ascertain any localized severe potential this far in advance.

OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England

The strongest signal for severe thunderstorms currently exists for Days 5-6 (Tuesday-Wednesday). Guidance differs on the details regarding placement and timing of mid-level troughs/impulses on Day 5 (Tuesday), though severe thunderstorms will probably develop somewhere between the eastern Great Lakes to the Eastern Seaboard. Once details become clearer on where storm development is most likely, 15 percent severe probabilities will likely be introduced.

For Day 6 (Wednesday), there is a general consensus among medium-range guidance that at least one impulse will traverse the eastern Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England corridor. A 50+ kt mid-level northwesterly 500 mb jet will overspread mid 60s F surface dewpoints, yielding both 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE and 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear amid a convective signal. As such, a 15 percent severe area has been introduced for Wednesday where these aforementioned ingredients best overlap.

..Squitieri.. 08/28/2026

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Outlook for Tuesday, September 1

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280849 SPC AC 280849

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Valid 311200Z - 051200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper ridge will meander eastward across the central and eastern CONUS through the week, with multiple mid-level shortwave troughs and other smaller embedded impulses poised to pivot around the ridge and traverse the northern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic. Several days of at least scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected along the periphery of the upper ridge as appreciably strong mid-level flow overspreads a seasonably moist boundary layer, especially during the middle of the week. By the end of the week, appreciable instability builds back into the northern Plains and upper MS Valley, but predictability is too low to ascertain any localized severe potential this far in advance.

OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England

The strongest signal for severe thunderstorms currently exists for Days 5-6 (Tuesday-Wednesday). Guidance differs on the details regarding placement and timing of mid-level troughs/impulses on Day 5 (Tuesday), though severe thunderstorms will probably develop somewhere between the eastern Great Lakes to the Eastern Seaboard. Once details become clearer on where storm development is most likely, 15 percent severe probabilities will likely be introduced.

For Day 6 (Wednesday), there is a general consensus among medium-range guidance that at least one impulse will traverse the eastern Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England corridor. A 50+ kt mid-level northwesterly 500 mb jet will overspread mid 60s F surface dewpoints, yielding both 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE and 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear amid a convective signal. As such, a 15 percent severe area has been introduced for Wednesday where these aforementioned ingredients best overlap.

..Squitieri.. 08/28/2026

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Outlook for Wednesday, September 2

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280849 SPC AC 280849

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Valid 311200Z - 051200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper ridge will meander eastward across the central and eastern CONUS through the week, with multiple mid-level shortwave troughs and other smaller embedded impulses poised to pivot around the ridge and traverse the northern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic. Several days of at least scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected along the periphery of the upper ridge as appreciably strong mid-level flow overspreads a seasonably moist boundary layer, especially during the middle of the week. By the end of the week, appreciable instability builds back into the northern Plains and upper MS Valley, but predictability is too low to ascertain any localized severe potential this far in advance.

OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England

The strongest signal for severe thunderstorms currently exists for Days 5-6 (Tuesday-Wednesday). Guidance differs on the details regarding placement and timing of mid-level troughs/impulses on Day 5 (Tuesday), though severe thunderstorms will probably develop somewhere between the eastern Great Lakes to the Eastern Seaboard. Once details become clearer on where storm development is most likely, 15 percent severe probabilities will likely be introduced.

For Day 6 (Wednesday), there is a general consensus among medium-range guidance that at least one impulse will traverse the eastern Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England corridor. A 50+ kt mid-level northwesterly 500 mb jet will overspread mid 60s F surface dewpoints, yielding both 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE and 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear amid a convective signal. As such, a 15 percent severe area has been introduced for Wednesday where these aforementioned ingredients best overlap.

..Squitieri.. 08/28/2026

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Outlook for Thursday, September 3

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280849 SPC AC 280849

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Valid 311200Z - 051200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper ridge will meander eastward across the central and eastern CONUS through the week, with multiple mid-level shortwave troughs and other smaller embedded impulses poised to pivot around the ridge and traverse the northern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic. Several days of at least scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected along the periphery of the upper ridge as appreciably strong mid-level flow overspreads a seasonably moist boundary layer, especially during the middle of the week. By the end of the week, appreciable instability builds back into the northern Plains and upper MS Valley, but predictability is too low to ascertain any localized severe potential this far in advance.

OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England

The strongest signal for severe thunderstorms currently exists for Days 5-6 (Tuesday-Wednesday). Guidance differs on the details regarding placement and timing of mid-level troughs/impulses on Day 5 (Tuesday), though severe thunderstorms will probably develop somewhere between the eastern Great Lakes to the Eastern Seaboard. Once details become clearer on where storm development is most likely, 15 percent severe probabilities will likely be introduced.

For Day 6 (Wednesday), there is a general consensus among medium-range guidance that at least one impulse will traverse the eastern Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England corridor. A 50+ kt mid-level northwesterly 500 mb jet will overspread mid 60s F surface dewpoints, yielding both 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE and 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear amid a convective signal. As such, a 15 percent severe area has been introduced for Wednesday where these aforementioned ingredients best overlap.

..Squitieri.. 08/28/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Friday, September 4

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280849 SPC AC 280849

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Valid 311200Z - 051200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper ridge will meander eastward across the central and eastern CONUS through the week, with multiple mid-level shortwave troughs and other smaller embedded impulses poised to pivot around the ridge and traverse the northern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic. Several days of at least scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected along the periphery of the upper ridge as appreciably strong mid-level flow overspreads a seasonably moist boundary layer, especially during the middle of the week. By the end of the week, appreciable instability builds back into the northern Plains and upper MS Valley, but predictability is too low to ascertain any localized severe potential this far in advance.

OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England

The strongest signal for severe thunderstorms currently exists for Days 5-6 (Tuesday-Wednesday). Guidance differs on the details regarding placement and timing of mid-level troughs/impulses on Day 5 (Tuesday), though severe thunderstorms will probably develop somewhere between the eastern Great Lakes to the Eastern Seaboard. Once details become clearer on where storm development is most likely, 15 percent severe probabilities will likely be introduced.

For Day 6 (Wednesday), there is a general consensus among medium-range guidance that at least one impulse will traverse the eastern Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England corridor. A 50+ kt mid-level northwesterly 500 mb jet will overspread mid 60s F surface dewpoints, yielding both 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE and 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear amid a convective signal. As such, a 15 percent severe area has been introduced for Wednesday where these aforementioned ingredients best overlap.

..Squitieri.. 08/28/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Friday, August 28

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 5%

Saturday, August 29

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Sunday, August 30

ANY SEVERE: 5%

Monday, August 31

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Tuesday, September 1

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Wednesday, September 2

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Thursday, September 3

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, September 4

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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