Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, October 29
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 290552
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight.
DISCUSSION
A mid-level ridge will become established in the central U.S. today, as a cold front advances southward through the region. To the south of the front, a somewhat moist airmass will be in place from the central Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. In spite of limited large-scale ascent, thunderstorm development will be possible near the front over parts of the mid Missouri Valley. Thunderstorms will also be possible in parts of the southern Rockies and southern High Plains, within the western part of the moist airmass. Over the continental U.S. in areas with convective potential, instability and deep-layer shear are forecast to be relatively low, and will be insufficient for severe thunderstorm development.
..Broyles/Halbert-E.. 10/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Friday, October 30
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of southern/central Arizona on Friday. Damaging wind gusts and large hail will be possible with the strongest storms.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 290516
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ARIZONA
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of southern/central Arizona on Friday. Damaging wind gusts and large hail will be possible with the strongest storms.
Synopsis
A mid/upper shortwave disturbance will migrate through larger-scale ridging over the Plains on Friday. This shortwave trough will lift slowly northeast from the southern Rockies/Rio Grande vicinity to the Mid/Lower MO Valley by early Saturday. Further west, another mid/upper trough off the Pacific coast will pivot northeast across the Lower CO Valley and Four Corners vicinity. Widespread showers and thunderstorm activity are expected with these features, though severe thunderstorm potential will be focused across AZ.
AZ
Mid/upper south/southwesterly flow around 20-40 kt will overspread 50s to low 60s F dewpoints Friday morning into the afternoon. Diurnal heating may be muted in some locations due to early thunderstorm development and cloudiness. Nevertheless, cool temperatures aloft (around -12 to -15 C at 500 mb) will support 500-1250 J/kg MLCAPE. Vertically veering wind profiles, increasing in speed in the midlevels, will result in 20-30 kt effective shear magnitudes and modestly elongated hodographs. While muted heating will limit stronger destabilization, and the expected widespread nature of convection may quickly lead to convective overturning, at least some risk of severe wind/hail will accompany stronger, better organized convection through early evening, particularly across southern to central AZ.
..Leitman.. 10/29/2026
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Saturday, October 31
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 290634
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.
Synopsis
A weak mid/upper shortwave impulse will spread east from the central/southern Plains to the Mid/Lower MS Valley on Saturday. Modest boundary layer moisture (increasing near the Gulf Coast) and cool temperatures aloft (around -10 to -12 C at 500 mb) will support sufficient instability for widely scattered showers and thunderstorms from OK/TX toward the Lower MS Valley. Overall severe thunderstorm potential will remain limited by generally weak flow and lack of stronger surface cyclogenesis. Additional thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Great Basin as an upper trough deepens across the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin at the same time as a southern stream upper trough approaches the southern CA and Baja coasts. Severe thunderstorms are not expected with this activity.
..Leitman.. 10/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Sunday, November 1
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, November 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, November 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, November 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, November 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, November 5 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290742 SPC AC 290742
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Central/Southern Plains to Lower MS Valley Vicinity
An upper trough is forecast to progress eastward from the western states on Day 4/Sun to the MS Valley by Day 8/Thu. As this occurs, a deepening surface cyclone will develop over the central Plains on Sunday night into Monday and slowly shift east toward the Mid/Upper MS Valley through Tuesday. A secondary low may also develop across the southern Plains during this time. As the low progresses east, a strong autumn cold fold will sweep across the Plains.
Strong south/southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread rich boundary layer moisture ahead of the front, and at least modest destabilization is likely. However, deep-layer flow will be parallel to this boundary, with a highly meridional component to deep-layer flow. This may result in widespread heavy rain and training precipitation, especially given this system will only slowly progress eastward, and limit a greater severe thunderstorm risk. Nevertheless, low severe thunderstorm potential is possible across parts of the southern plains toward the Lower MS Valley/Gulf Coast Monday into Tuesday, and possibly Wednesday across the Southeast. At this time, severe potential appears too low/uncertain/conditional to include 15 percent probabilities, but trends will continue to be monitored for increasing severe thunderstorm chances early to mid-week.
..Leitman.. 10/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, November 2
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, November 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, November 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, November 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, November 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, November 5 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290742 SPC AC 290742
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Central/Southern Plains to Lower MS Valley Vicinity
An upper trough is forecast to progress eastward from the western states on Day 4/Sun to the MS Valley by Day 8/Thu. As this occurs, a deepening surface cyclone will develop over the central Plains on Sunday night into Monday and slowly shift east toward the Mid/Upper MS Valley through Tuesday. A secondary low may also develop across the southern Plains during this time. As the low progresses east, a strong autumn cold fold will sweep across the Plains.
Strong south/southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread rich boundary layer moisture ahead of the front, and at least modest destabilization is likely. However, deep-layer flow will be parallel to this boundary, with a highly meridional component to deep-layer flow. This may result in widespread heavy rain and training precipitation, especially given this system will only slowly progress eastward, and limit a greater severe thunderstorm risk. Nevertheless, low severe thunderstorm potential is possible across parts of the southern plains toward the Lower MS Valley/Gulf Coast Monday into Tuesday, and possibly Wednesday across the Southeast. At this time, severe potential appears too low/uncertain/conditional to include 15 percent probabilities, but trends will continue to be monitored for increasing severe thunderstorm chances early to mid-week.
..Leitman.. 10/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, November 3
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, November 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, November 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, November 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, November 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, November 5 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290742 SPC AC 290742
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Central/Southern Plains to Lower MS Valley Vicinity
An upper trough is forecast to progress eastward from the western states on Day 4/Sun to the MS Valley by Day 8/Thu. As this occurs, a deepening surface cyclone will develop over the central Plains on Sunday night into Monday and slowly shift east toward the Mid/Upper MS Valley through Tuesday. A secondary low may also develop across the southern Plains during this time. As the low progresses east, a strong autumn cold fold will sweep across the Plains.
Strong south/southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread rich boundary layer moisture ahead of the front, and at least modest destabilization is likely. However, deep-layer flow will be parallel to this boundary, with a highly meridional component to deep-layer flow. This may result in widespread heavy rain and training precipitation, especially given this system will only slowly progress eastward, and limit a greater severe thunderstorm risk. Nevertheless, low severe thunderstorm potential is possible across parts of the southern plains toward the Lower MS Valley/Gulf Coast Monday into Tuesday, and possibly Wednesday across the Southeast. At this time, severe potential appears too low/uncertain/conditional to include 15 percent probabilities, but trends will continue to be monitored for increasing severe thunderstorm chances early to mid-week.
..Leitman.. 10/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, November 4
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, November 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, November 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, November 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, November 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, November 5 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290742 SPC AC 290742
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Central/Southern Plains to Lower MS Valley Vicinity
An upper trough is forecast to progress eastward from the western states on Day 4/Sun to the MS Valley by Day 8/Thu. As this occurs, a deepening surface cyclone will develop over the central Plains on Sunday night into Monday and slowly shift east toward the Mid/Upper MS Valley through Tuesday. A secondary low may also develop across the southern Plains during this time. As the low progresses east, a strong autumn cold fold will sweep across the Plains.
Strong south/southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread rich boundary layer moisture ahead of the front, and at least modest destabilization is likely. However, deep-layer flow will be parallel to this boundary, with a highly meridional component to deep-layer flow. This may result in widespread heavy rain and training precipitation, especially given this system will only slowly progress eastward, and limit a greater severe thunderstorm risk. Nevertheless, low severe thunderstorm potential is possible across parts of the southern plains toward the Lower MS Valley/Gulf Coast Monday into Tuesday, and possibly Wednesday across the Southeast. At this time, severe potential appears too low/uncertain/conditional to include 15 percent probabilities, but trends will continue to be monitored for increasing severe thunderstorm chances early to mid-week.
..Leitman.. 10/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, November 5
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, November 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, November 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, November 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, November 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, November 5 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290742 SPC AC 290742
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Central/Southern Plains to Lower MS Valley Vicinity
An upper trough is forecast to progress eastward from the western states on Day 4/Sun to the MS Valley by Day 8/Thu. As this occurs, a deepening surface cyclone will develop over the central Plains on Sunday night into Monday and slowly shift east toward the Mid/Upper MS Valley through Tuesday. A secondary low may also develop across the southern Plains during this time. As the low progresses east, a strong autumn cold fold will sweep across the Plains.
Strong south/southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread rich boundary layer moisture ahead of the front, and at least modest destabilization is likely. However, deep-layer flow will be parallel to this boundary, with a highly meridional component to deep-layer flow. This may result in widespread heavy rain and training precipitation, especially given this system will only slowly progress eastward, and limit a greater severe thunderstorm risk. Nevertheless, low severe thunderstorm potential is possible across parts of the southern plains toward the Lower MS Valley/Gulf Coast Monday into Tuesday, and possibly Wednesday across the Southeast. At this time, severe potential appears too low/uncertain/conditional to include 15 percent probabilities, but trends will continue to be monitored for increasing severe thunderstorm chances early to mid-week.
..Leitman.. 10/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, October 29
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Friday, October 30
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Saturday, October 31
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Sunday, November 1
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, November 2
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, November 3
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, November 4
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, November 5
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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