Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Wednesday, August 19

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this afternoon across the lower Missouri Valley, the mid Mississippi Valley, and southern Arizona.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 191957

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Valid 192000Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY…THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY…AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this afternoon across the lower Missouri Valley, the mid Mississippi Valley, and southern Arizona.

20z Update

A compact, but severe, MCS has begun tracking eastward along a residual/diffuse frontal zone into southeast NE. Based on the recent 18 UTC OAX RAOB, the MCS is beginning to orient more orthogonal to the deep-layer bulk shear vector, which should continue to promote storm organization and intensity. The potential for severe winds, including winds near 75 mph, should continue through late afternoon and early evening hours before moving into more stable air mass across north-central MO. See MCD #2041 for additional short-term details.

Mid-Mississippi Valley/lower Ohio Valley

Recent GOES visible imagery and surface observations show temperatures rebounding into the low to mid 80s as skies clear ahead of an approaching mid-level wave. This destabilization appears to be on track with recent guidance, which suggests that initially discrete/semi-discrete storm development should begin by around 22-00 UTC across south-central MO on the western fringe of the residual cold pool. Forecast soundings from this region depict elongated hodographs conducive for large hail, including the potential for hail up to 2 inches in diameter (based on sounding analogs and hodograph structure). Given a favorable kinematic environment, adequate buoyancy, and a signal in recent high-res ensemble guidance for strong convection, a CIG 1 hail contour has been introduced to portions of southern Missouri.

Elsewhere, only minor modifications were made based on recent convective trends. See the discussion below and MCD #2040 for additional details.

..Moore.. 08/19/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026/

Mid MO Valley

Radar/visible satellite mosaic imagery depicts a small cluster of severe thunderstorms immediately ahead of a migratory shortwave trough moving southeast over the mid MO Valley. Some heating downstream of this activity will result in temperatures warming and the airmass gradually destabilizing amid filtered sunshine. Gradual upscale growth is underway and should continue into the early afternoon. Large hail and severe gusts 60-70 mph will be the primary severe hazards as this cluster moves into adjacent portions of NE/MO/IA later this afternoon.

Ozarks into the Mid MS Valley

Residual showers/thunderstorms from an overnight MCS over the southeast MO into western KY vicinity will slowly dissipate this afternoon with greater heating ensuing in the wake of these storms. Models continue to show moderate destabilization by late this afternoon ahead of the MO Valley upper vort. Weak low-level convergence along an upstream cold front will support thunderstorm development within this destabilized airmass this evening. Strengthening mid-level flow will result in moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear supportive of supercells. Models vary regarding the propensity for cellular mode to be maintained beyond the initial storm development phase, casting doubt on supercell longevity and tornado potential. Nonetheless, some strengthening of 850-mb flow during the evening may enable some mesocyclone potential to persist, and an accompanying isolated risk for a tornado or two. Otherwise, storms will tend to cluster with eastward extent, with the threat for damaging gusts persisting within these bowing line segments.

Ohio Valley

A somewhat secondary area of late afternoon/early evening thunderstorm development is anticipated from central IL into central IN and central OH. Moderate buoyancy and strong westerly flow aloft supports the potential for isolated supercells capable of large hail and isolated damaging gusts.

Central/Southern High Plains

A seasonably moist airmass will undergo strong heating/mixing and result in moderate buoyancy by mid-late afternoon. Thunderstorm development is expected across the higher terrain before then progressing eastward into the lower elevations. Moderate northwesterly flow aloft will support organized storms structures, and large hail is possible along the Foothills. Steep lapse rates and large temperature-dewpoint depressions will lead to outflow-dominant storms capable of severe gusts with the more intense cores/outflow.

AZ

The presence of monsoon moisture will support moderate buoyancy across the lower elevations of south-central AZ during the late afternoon. Scattered storms are expected to eventually develop towards the early evening. Trends in model guidance showing a cluster potentially evolving within an adequately moist/inverted-V environment lend confidence in introducing a level 1 intensity highlight for peak gusts in the 70-80 mph range.

Southeast into northern FL

A very moist airmass analyzed late this morning (mid to upper 70s F surface dewpoints) will remain in place along the Gulf Coast. Strong heating is anticipated, with high temperatures in the upper 90s across much of the region. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability will develop, with scattered thunderstorms expected amid modest low-level convergence from MS into western/southern AL and across the FL Panhandle into northern FL. The deep low-level moisture combined with steep low-level lapse rates will support an isolated wind-damage threat during the mid to late afternoon.

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

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Outlook for Thursday, August 20

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe storms are possible Thursday across parts of the Mid Atlantic, posing a risk for damaging wind gusts. Large hail and isolated wind damage will be possible with severe storms from Nebraska into northwest Wisconsin.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 191712

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC…AND PARTS OF NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe storms are possible Thursday across parts of the Mid Atlantic, posing a risk for damaging wind gusts. Large hail and isolated wind damage will be possible with severe storms from Nebraska into northwest Wisconsin.

Mid-Atlantic

A midlevel shortwave impulse is forecast to spread eastward from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic through Thursday evening. This will result in enhanced southwesterly flow atop a very moist boundary layer. Strong heating along/east of a surface trough oriented from northern MD through central VA/NC will support a corridor of moderate destabilization. Thunderstorms are expected to develop near a warm front across southern/central NJ south/southwest along the surface trough into central/eastern VA/NC during the afternoon. Effective shear magnitudes around 40 kt will support organized cells, perhaps becoming linear segments with time. Damaging wind gusts will be possible, supported further by steep low-level lapse rates and high PW values. The strongest cells could also produce hail.

TN Valley/Southeast

A surface tough will extend southwestward from the NC Piedmont into northern MS/central AR Thursday afternoon. A seasonally moist and hot airmass will be in place, fostering moderate to strong instability. Weak convergence along the surface boundary will promote scattered thunderstorm development. Vertical shear will be weak, but thunderstorm clusters could produce damaging outflow gusts with the steep lapse rates/high PW environment. Forecast soundings also show so cooler temperature aloft, and isolated hail could accompany strong storms across parts of northern MS and the TN Valley.

Further south into central/southern AL, southwest GA and the FL Panhandle vicinity, isolated cells are expected within a similar environment, but even weaker deep-layer flow is forecast. Nevertheless, sporadic wet microbursts will be possible, posing a risk for locally damaging gusts.

Central Plains to MN/WI

Northwesterly flow aloft will increase Thursday afternoon into evening. At the surface, weak low pressure will migrate east across northern MN toward the U.P. of MI. As this occurs, a weak surface front will develop southeast across the region. Ahead of this boundary, modest boundary layer moisture will remain in place (generally low to maybe mid-60s F dewpoints). Supercell wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings, with elongated/straight hodographs noted above 2-3 km. Isolated to widely scattered storms will develop by late afternoon/early evening, posing a risk for large hail and locally damaging winds. With southward extent into NE, a narrow corridor may exist for significant hail (greater than 2 inch diameter) given steep midlevel lapse rates/cool temperatures aloft and somewhat higher boundary layer moisture compared to further north.

AZ

Easterly midlevel flow on the southern periphery of an upper anticyclone over the Four Corners will remain in place on Thursday. Modest boundary layer moisture will persist over lower elevations amid the steep lapse rate environment. This will promote MLCAPE around 1000-1250 J/kg. Thunderstorms will develop over higher terrain during the late afternoon. Damaging wind potential will increase as storms consolidate and propagate westward over the lower elevations of central/southern AZ during the evening.

..Leitman.. 08/19/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Friday, August 21

Outlook Summary

Isolated to scattered damaging hail (some greater than 2 inch diamter) and severe wind gusts may occur over parts of the central Plains late Friday afternoon and evening. Scattered storms, some with severe wind gusts, are possible Friday afternoon over parts of the Carolinas.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 191908

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Isolated to scattered damaging hail (some greater than 2 inch diamter) and severe wind gusts may occur over parts of the central Plains late Friday afternoon and evening. Scattered storms, some with severe wind gusts, are possible Friday afternoon over parts of the Carolinas.

Central Plains

Northwest flow aloft will strengthen further on Friday, with 40-60 kt at 500 mb common across the Mid-MO Valley. At the surface, low pressure will develop along surface troughing across western NE/KS. Rich boundary-layer moisture will be in place across eastern NE/IA and southward across the Lower MO Valley. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will reside across the High Plains and spread eastward toward the MO River during the evening. These steep lapse rates atop the moist boundary layer will support a corridor of strong instability (3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE). Meanwhile, forecast soundings indicate supercell wind profiles with nearly 50 kt effective shear magnitudes and elongated/straight hodographs.

Initial supercells should develop near the surface trough over southwest SD/northwest NE, and shift southeast through evening, posing a risk for large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts. Forecast guidance depicts a 40 kt southwesterly low-level jet developing across KS overnight. This may maintain clusters/promote upscale growth into an MCS during the nighttime hours, spreading southeast toward northwest MO by Saturday morning. If this occurs, damaging wind potential could increase/become the predominant severe hazard overnight.

Additional more isolated storms could develop ahead of a southward-advancing cold front across Iowa overnight. Any storms that develop will likely be elevated, but will form in an environment supporting severe hail.

Southeast

Scattered to numerous storms are forecast within a very moist and unstable environment along a surface trough extending northeast to southwest from NC into GA/southeast AL. Vertical shear is expected to remain very weak. Nevertheless, a mix of single and multi-cell convection will pose a risk for wet microbursts during the afternoon and early evening.

..Leitman.. 08/19/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Saturday, August 22

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190828 SPC AC 190828

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

DISCUSSION

For the Sat/D4 to Wed/D8 period, an upper ridge will persist from the Southern Plains into the Southwest, while various shortwave troughs affect the northern Plains, Great Lakes, and Northeast. The primary trough amplification will occur from the Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes on Sat/D4 into the Northeast through Mon/D6, with moisture and instability supportive of strong storms generally persisting over parts of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic. Shear will remain weak over the East on Sat/D4, with areas of storms producing strong gusts, perhaps marginal/isolated severe. By Sun/D5, strong winds and cooling aloft will move across the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, though antecedent precipitation will affect the warm sector, as will veering low-level winds. Frontal timing will depend on the upper trough speed, and overall predictability is low for Sun/D5.

To the west, daily corridors of thunderstorms are also likely over parts of the central to northern Plains, with northwest flow strongest on Sat/D4 and weakening into D5/D6. At least marginal risk/low probabilities are likely in later outlooks for isolated wind/hail.

..Jewell.. 08/19/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, August 23

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190828 SPC AC 190828

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

DISCUSSION

For the Sat/D4 to Wed/D8 period, an upper ridge will persist from the Southern Plains into the Southwest, while various shortwave troughs affect the northern Plains, Great Lakes, and Northeast. The primary trough amplification will occur from the Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes on Sat/D4 into the Northeast through Mon/D6, with moisture and instability supportive of strong storms generally persisting over parts of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic. Shear will remain weak over the East on Sat/D4, with areas of storms producing strong gusts, perhaps marginal/isolated severe. By Sun/D5, strong winds and cooling aloft will move across the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, though antecedent precipitation will affect the warm sector, as will veering low-level winds. Frontal timing will depend on the upper trough speed, and overall predictability is low for Sun/D5.

To the west, daily corridors of thunderstorms are also likely over parts of the central to northern Plains, with northwest flow strongest on Sat/D4 and weakening into D5/D6. At least marginal risk/low probabilities are likely in later outlooks for isolated wind/hail.

..Jewell.. 08/19/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, August 24

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190828 SPC AC 190828

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

DISCUSSION

For the Sat/D4 to Wed/D8 period, an upper ridge will persist from the Southern Plains into the Southwest, while various shortwave troughs affect the northern Plains, Great Lakes, and Northeast. The primary trough amplification will occur from the Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes on Sat/D4 into the Northeast through Mon/D6, with moisture and instability supportive of strong storms generally persisting over parts of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic. Shear will remain weak over the East on Sat/D4, with areas of storms producing strong gusts, perhaps marginal/isolated severe. By Sun/D5, strong winds and cooling aloft will move across the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, though antecedent precipitation will affect the warm sector, as will veering low-level winds. Frontal timing will depend on the upper trough speed, and overall predictability is low for Sun/D5.

To the west, daily corridors of thunderstorms are also likely over parts of the central to northern Plains, with northwest flow strongest on Sat/D4 and weakening into D5/D6. At least marginal risk/low probabilities are likely in later outlooks for isolated wind/hail.

..Jewell.. 08/19/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, August 25

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190828 SPC AC 190828

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

DISCUSSION

For the Sat/D4 to Wed/D8 period, an upper ridge will persist from the Southern Plains into the Southwest, while various shortwave troughs affect the northern Plains, Great Lakes, and Northeast. The primary trough amplification will occur from the Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes on Sat/D4 into the Northeast through Mon/D6, with moisture and instability supportive of strong storms generally persisting over parts of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic. Shear will remain weak over the East on Sat/D4, with areas of storms producing strong gusts, perhaps marginal/isolated severe. By Sun/D5, strong winds and cooling aloft will move across the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, though antecedent precipitation will affect the warm sector, as will veering low-level winds. Frontal timing will depend on the upper trough speed, and overall predictability is low for Sun/D5.

To the west, daily corridors of thunderstorms are also likely over parts of the central to northern Plains, with northwest flow strongest on Sat/D4 and weakening into D5/D6. At least marginal risk/low probabilities are likely in later outlooks for isolated wind/hail.

..Jewell.. 08/19/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, August 26

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190828 SPC AC 190828

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

DISCUSSION

For the Sat/D4 to Wed/D8 period, an upper ridge will persist from the Southern Plains into the Southwest, while various shortwave troughs affect the northern Plains, Great Lakes, and Northeast. The primary trough amplification will occur from the Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes on Sat/D4 into the Northeast through Mon/D6, with moisture and instability supportive of strong storms generally persisting over parts of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic. Shear will remain weak over the East on Sat/D4, with areas of storms producing strong gusts, perhaps marginal/isolated severe. By Sun/D5, strong winds and cooling aloft will move across the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, though antecedent precipitation will affect the warm sector, as will veering low-level winds. Frontal timing will depend on the upper trough speed, and overall predictability is low for Sun/D5.

To the west, daily corridors of thunderstorms are also likely over parts of the central to northern Plains, with northwest flow strongest on Sat/D4 and weakening into D5/D6. At least marginal risk/low probabilities are likely in later outlooks for isolated wind/hail.

..Jewell.. 08/19/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Wednesday, August 19

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 15%

Thursday, August 20

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Friday, August 21

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Saturday, August 22

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Sunday, August 23

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Monday, August 24

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Tuesday, August 25

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Wednesday, August 26

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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