Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, December 26
Outlook Summary
Severe storms are not expected across the continental U.S. today. General thunderstorm activity is most likely from lower Michigan into Pennsylvania, and from parts of California into the Great Basin.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 260542
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe storms are not expected across the continental U.S. today. General thunderstorm activity is most likely from lower Michigan into Pennsylvania, and from parts of California into the Great Basin.
Synopsis and Discussion
A slow-moving positive tilt upper trough will move across CA and into the Great Basin through tonight, with a weakening surface low dropping southeastward into northern CA. Modest southwest flow aloft will support continued moist conditions with areas of more concentrated rain and embedded thunderstorms. In general, veering low-level winds and/or weak instability will likely preclude much of a severe thunderstorm risk, though stronger gusts may occur coincident with shallow convection in favored areas of terrain across parts of CA.
To the east, a low-amplitude upper trough will move across the Great Lakes and OH Valley during the day and toward the Mid Atlantic late, with a plume of 50s F dewpoints surging into OH. Several hundred J/kg elevated MUCAPE will develop, supporting scattered thunderstorms. While deep-layer effective shear may support cellular storm mode, generally weak instability levels are unlikely to support severe hail.
..Jewell/Karstens.. 12/26/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Saturday, December 27
Outlook Summary
Severe storms are not expected on Saturday or Saturday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 260544
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe storms are not expected on Saturday or Saturday night.
Midwest
Isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms are possible on Saturday night/early morning Sunday, within a broad low-level warm conveyor ahead of an expansive positive-tilt upper trough across the West. Guidance does differ in the degree of coverage prior to 12Z Sunday, with greater convective potential expected on D3. This appears largely tied to the degree large-scale ascent and attendant moistening/removal of prior inhibition. Small hail seems plausible given adequate effective bulk shear, centered on the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. But meager elevated buoyancy is anticipated where convection forms, rendering negligible severe hail potential.
..Grams.. 12/26/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Sunday, December 28
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, December 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, December 29 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, December 30 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, December 31 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, January 1 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250946 SPC AC 250946
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. on Sunday, as an associated cold front advances southeastward into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. Near the front, scattered thunderstorms are expected by afternoon from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the lower Ohio Valley. Any severe threat will likely remain marginal due to weak instability, and a tendency for storms to be post-frontal.
From Monday to Thursday, the mid-level trough is forecast to gradually move eastward across the central and eastern U.S., eventually reaching the western Atlantic by Thursday. In its wake, a cool and dry airmass is forecast to overspread much of the continental U.S., making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms in most areas.
..Broyles.. 12/25/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, December 29
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, December 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, December 29 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, December 30 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, December 31 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, January 1 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250946 SPC AC 250946
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. on Sunday, as an associated cold front advances southeastward into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. Near the front, scattered thunderstorms are expected by afternoon from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the lower Ohio Valley. Any severe threat will likely remain marginal due to weak instability, and a tendency for storms to be post-frontal.
From Monday to Thursday, the mid-level trough is forecast to gradually move eastward across the central and eastern U.S., eventually reaching the western Atlantic by Thursday. In its wake, a cool and dry airmass is forecast to overspread much of the continental U.S., making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms in most areas.
..Broyles.. 12/25/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, December 30
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, December 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, December 29 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, December 30 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, December 31 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, January 1 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250946 SPC AC 250946
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. on Sunday, as an associated cold front advances southeastward into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. Near the front, scattered thunderstorms are expected by afternoon from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the lower Ohio Valley. Any severe threat will likely remain marginal due to weak instability, and a tendency for storms to be post-frontal.
From Monday to Thursday, the mid-level trough is forecast to gradually move eastward across the central and eastern U.S., eventually reaching the western Atlantic by Thursday. In its wake, a cool and dry airmass is forecast to overspread much of the continental U.S., making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms in most areas.
..Broyles.. 12/25/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, December 31
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, December 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, December 29 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, December 30 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, December 31 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, January 1 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250946 SPC AC 250946
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. on Sunday, as an associated cold front advances southeastward into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. Near the front, scattered thunderstorms are expected by afternoon from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the lower Ohio Valley. Any severe threat will likely remain marginal due to weak instability, and a tendency for storms to be post-frontal.
From Monday to Thursday, the mid-level trough is forecast to gradually move eastward across the central and eastern U.S., eventually reaching the western Atlantic by Thursday. In its wake, a cool and dry airmass is forecast to overspread much of the continental U.S., making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms in most areas.
..Broyles.. 12/25/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, January 1
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, December 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, December 29 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, December 30 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, December 31 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, January 1 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250946 SPC AC 250946
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. on Sunday, as an associated cold front advances southeastward into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. Near the front, scattered thunderstorms are expected by afternoon from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the lower Ohio Valley. Any severe threat will likely remain marginal due to weak instability, and a tendency for storms to be post-frontal.
From Monday to Thursday, the mid-level trough is forecast to gradually move eastward across the central and eastern U.S., eventually reaching the western Atlantic by Thursday. In its wake, a cool and dry airmass is forecast to overspread much of the continental U.S., making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms in most areas.
..Broyles.. 12/25/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, December 26
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Saturday, December 27
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Sunday, December 28
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, December 29
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, December 30
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, December 31
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, January 1
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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