Severe Weather Outlook

show me my personal outlook →

National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Saturday, April 11

Outlook Summary

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible overnight across portions central Texas while more isolated severe thunderstorms are expected across the southern and central Plains and into the upper Mississippi River Valley.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 120056

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Valid 120100Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN TEXAS

### SUMMARY

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible overnight across portions central Texas while more isolated severe thunderstorms are expected across the southern and central Plains and into the upper Mississippi River Valley.

Synopsis

Strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible late this evening and into the overnight hours across parts of the central CONUS. A lee cyclone will continue to deepen across the northern High Plains and maintain northward moisture return across the Plains as well as a focused zone of strong isentropic ascent across the upper MS Valley. Buoyant conditions and modest, but adequate, deep-layer wind shear should continue to support the potential for organized convection.

Texas

The early stages of MCV development are noted in regional reflectivity across the Big Bend region of TX where a convective clustering has been focused over the past several hours. The nearby 00z DRT RAOB recently sampled a 0-6 km bulk shear value on the order of 45 knots, which is favorable for organized convection. This kinematic environment remains favorable for organized convection and could support intensification/organization of a convective line associated with the MCV as it migrates eastward into a more moist/buoyant environment. This scenario is supported by recent CAM guidance, and warrants maintaining/expanding 15% wind probabilities downstream of the MCV.

Oklahoma into Kansas

Modestly moist and uncapped conditions were recently sampled across northern TX and central OK with effective bulk shear values on the order of 25 knots. Continued northward moisture advection should modulate nocturnal stabilization, and increasing ascent ahead of the upper wave emanating out of northern Mexico may support isolated strong to severe convection through the late evening and overnight hours.

Upper MS Valley

VWPs across the Midwest and upper MS Valley all show a strong veering within the lowest 1-2 km and a recent uptick in wind speed within this layer. Additionally, upstream RAOBs sampled 7-8 C/km lapse rates that should be advecting eastward into the region through the overnight hours. The combination of continued ascent and increasing instability should promote the potential for additional elevated convection late tonight with an attendant threat for hail approach severe limits.

California

The 00z OAK RAOB sampled weak buoyancy with around 150 J/kg SBCAPE. However, temperatures near 700 mb should continue to cool through the overnight hours with the approach of an upper wave just off the coast. Continued ascent within the left-exit region of the attendant upper jet will maintain the potential for isolated convection along the CA coast and areas inland. Additionally, 35-45 knot flow within the lowest few kilometers will likely be maintained through the overnight. Given the expectation of a slight increase in buoyancy and maintenance of low-level flow, opted to keep the 5% wind risk.

..Moore.. 04/12/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Sunday, April 12

Outlook Summary

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern and central Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 111730

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern and central Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday.

Synopsis

On Sunday, an upper-level low will move inland across the West Coast while ridging continues across the eastern US. Broad southwesterly flow will propagate across the Rockies and into the Plains, with several shortwaves troughs pivoting through the plains into the upper Midwest. This pattern will favor lee troughing in the lee of the Rockies. Across the southern/central Plains, southerly surface flow will usher in moisture northward all the way from the southern Plains into the upper Mid-west ahead of surface trough/dryline oriented across eastern NE into central KS, arcing south/southwest into northwest OK and western TX.

It is likely that widely scattered thunderstorm activity will be ongoing at the start of the D2/Sunday period across TX/OK and across central/northern MN. Some re-intensification of convection will be possible across portions of central/eastern Texas. Additional activity is expected to develop by the afternoon in the vicinity of the dryline and across the Sierra Madre in Mexico.

Central/Southern Plains

In the wake of morning convection across portions of western Texas into the OK/TX Panhandles, strong southwesterly flow will continue to advect warm moist boundary layer conditions and a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates. HREF guidance shows persistent mid to high level clouds remaining in place across the region through the early afternoon. It is likely that with mixing/heating some breaks in this cloud cover will allow for sheltered heating and air mass recovery. Most guidance suggests MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg will be common from western Texas into western/central OK and southern KS. Given the nebulous forcing, convective initiation in the afternoon will likely be tied initially to the dryline circulation from western Texas into western Oklahoma and high terrain in Mexico. Generally linear hodographs and the steep lapse rate profiles will support risk for large to very large hail and strong to severe winds. Additional more isolated development may occur across the dryline in KS/NE. With any supercells that can maintain a semi-discrete mode, perhaps a tornado or two will be possible.

Upper Midwest

Re-development of thunderstorm activity across the Upper Midwest remains less certain Sunday afternoon. The mid-level wave will advance eastward with a warm front lifting into Canada and surface low tracking northeast. Most CAM guidance produces little to no thunderstorm activity likely owing to the forcing shifting eastward too quickly. HREF calibrated thunder signals also remain low. The environment will be conditionally unstable, with MLCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg overlapping favorable low-level and deep layer shear profiles. Should an isolated storm or two occur, the potential will remain for large hail, damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado.

..Thornton.. 04/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Monday, April 13

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are possible across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes region, and across portions of the southern Plains on Monday.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 111929

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY…AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are possible across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes region, and across portions of the southern Plains on Monday.

Synopsis

The pattern on D3/Monday will be characterized by continued mid-level troughing across the western US, shifting east into the Great Basin. Strong west to southwesterly flow will continue across the Rockies into the central Plains and Upper Midwest. A surface low will shift across SD/NE into the Upper Midwest, with attendant northward lifting warm front and eventual southward moving cold front. These features will be the focus of thunderstorm activity late Monday afternoon across MN/IA/WI will additional development likely into upper MI through the late evening.

Across the southern/central Plains, a surface dryline will extend from central KS into western OK/southwest TX. Strong daytime heating will occur along and ahead of the dryline with an increase in the low-level jet by the late afternoon/evening and potential for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development.

Upper Midwest

Across the Upper Midwest, southerly flow will usher low to mid 60s dew points northwards into portions of IA/WI/MN as a surface low shifts eastward. The exact northern extent of this moisture remains uncertain, however it does appear that thunderstorms will develop near the low and along or north of the effective warm front across some portion of IA/MN border, perhaps as far west as southeastern SD/northern NE. Steep midlevel lapse rates and elongated hodographs suggest large to very large hail (some 2-2.5+ inch in diameter) will be possible both within the warm sector and with any elevated storms on the cool side of the boundary. Some consideration was given to introduction a 30% area, primarily concerning the hail risk, across the IA/MN border. There still remains uncertainty in guidance of the coverage of storms in the open warm sector. Through time, storms may consolidate with a shift to damaging wind potential. For now, opted to expand the Marginal and Slight Risks further west into the Dakotas but maintain 15% probabilities.

Central/Southern Plains

A more conditional threat for thunderstorms will be possible across the dryline in the central/southern Plains. Through the day, the environment looks to remain largely capped. Beneath this, strong daytime heating will yield moderate to strong CAPE within a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates. Into the late afternoon/evening, the low-level jet will increase and this may support development of isolated thunderstorm activity along and ahead of the dryline. Should this occur, the environment will favor supercells capable of large to very large hail, damaging wind, and a couple of tornadoes.

..Thornton.. 04/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Tuesday, April 14

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110844 SPC AC 110844

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Tue – Southern Plains to Great Lakes

A shortwave upper trough embedded within the larger-scale western U.S. trough will eject across portions of the Plains to the Upper Midwest on Day 4/Tue. As this occurs, a surface low will deep over the central Plains and lift northeast across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. Some uncertainty remains regarding the exact evolution of this system, mainly due to differences in medium range guidance with respect to surface low placement and timing of the upper shortwave trough. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass is expected ahead of the low and to the east of a Plains dryline and south of a Great Lakes warm front. Thunderstorm development should be more widespread along these boundaries compared to prior days given stronger large-scale ascent will overspread the central U.S., and height falls will result in a more robust low-level jet response. As a result, an all-hazards severe event is expected from the southern Plains into portions of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Tuesday/Tuesday night.

Day 5/Wed – Southern Plains to the Midwest

Medium range guidance varies heading into Wednesday with the operational GFS much more progressive and lower amplitude than the operational ECMWF. The AIGFS is much more in-line with the ECMWF/AIFS, so this period is weighted more toward those solutions. It appears the upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject across the Plains to the Mid-MS Valley during this time. A moist and unstable airmass will reside across the region ahead of dryline across western OK into central TX and a sagging cold front across the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley. Areas of precipitation could be ongoing at the beginning of the period and does result in some uncertainty regarding where stronger destabilization will occur. Nevertheless, an overall favorable thermodynamic/kinematic parameter space will overlap this corridor and isolated to scattered severe storms appear likely.

Days 6-8/Thu-Sat

Medium range guidance depicts another trough developing across the West on Day 6/Thu and quickly progressing east through the end of the period. This could support a continued severe risk across parts of the southern Plains into the Midwest in the Thursday or Friday time frame. However, run to run consistency toward the end of the forecast period has not been very good. Additionally, multiple rounds of storms across the same areas earlier in the period may impact later severe potential. Trends will be monitored and probabilities may be needed in later outlooks.

..Leitman.. 04/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Wednesday, April 15

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110844 SPC AC 110844

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Tue – Southern Plains to Great Lakes

A shortwave upper trough embedded within the larger-scale western U.S. trough will eject across portions of the Plains to the Upper Midwest on Day 4/Tue. As this occurs, a surface low will deep over the central Plains and lift northeast across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. Some uncertainty remains regarding the exact evolution of this system, mainly due to differences in medium range guidance with respect to surface low placement and timing of the upper shortwave trough. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass is expected ahead of the low and to the east of a Plains dryline and south of a Great Lakes warm front. Thunderstorm development should be more widespread along these boundaries compared to prior days given stronger large-scale ascent will overspread the central U.S., and height falls will result in a more robust low-level jet response. As a result, an all-hazards severe event is expected from the southern Plains into portions of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Tuesday/Tuesday night.

Day 5/Wed – Southern Plains to the Midwest

Medium range guidance varies heading into Wednesday with the operational GFS much more progressive and lower amplitude than the operational ECMWF. The AIGFS is much more in-line with the ECMWF/AIFS, so this period is weighted more toward those solutions. It appears the upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject across the Plains to the Mid-MS Valley during this time. A moist and unstable airmass will reside across the region ahead of dryline across western OK into central TX and a sagging cold front across the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley. Areas of precipitation could be ongoing at the beginning of the period and does result in some uncertainty regarding where stronger destabilization will occur. Nevertheless, an overall favorable thermodynamic/kinematic parameter space will overlap this corridor and isolated to scattered severe storms appear likely.

Days 6-8/Thu-Sat

Medium range guidance depicts another trough developing across the West on Day 6/Thu and quickly progressing east through the end of the period. This could support a continued severe risk across parts of the southern Plains into the Midwest in the Thursday or Friday time frame. However, run to run consistency toward the end of the forecast period has not been very good. Additionally, multiple rounds of storms across the same areas earlier in the period may impact later severe potential. Trends will be monitored and probabilities may be needed in later outlooks.

..Leitman.. 04/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Thursday, April 16

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110844 SPC AC 110844

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Tue – Southern Plains to Great Lakes

A shortwave upper trough embedded within the larger-scale western U.S. trough will eject across portions of the Plains to the Upper Midwest on Day 4/Tue. As this occurs, a surface low will deep over the central Plains and lift northeast across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. Some uncertainty remains regarding the exact evolution of this system, mainly due to differences in medium range guidance with respect to surface low placement and timing of the upper shortwave trough. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass is expected ahead of the low and to the east of a Plains dryline and south of a Great Lakes warm front. Thunderstorm development should be more widespread along these boundaries compared to prior days given stronger large-scale ascent will overspread the central U.S., and height falls will result in a more robust low-level jet response. As a result, an all-hazards severe event is expected from the southern Plains into portions of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Tuesday/Tuesday night.

Day 5/Wed – Southern Plains to the Midwest

Medium range guidance varies heading into Wednesday with the operational GFS much more progressive and lower amplitude than the operational ECMWF. The AIGFS is much more in-line with the ECMWF/AIFS, so this period is weighted more toward those solutions. It appears the upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject across the Plains to the Mid-MS Valley during this time. A moist and unstable airmass will reside across the region ahead of dryline across western OK into central TX and a sagging cold front across the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley. Areas of precipitation could be ongoing at the beginning of the period and does result in some uncertainty regarding where stronger destabilization will occur. Nevertheless, an overall favorable thermodynamic/kinematic parameter space will overlap this corridor and isolated to scattered severe storms appear likely.

Days 6-8/Thu-Sat

Medium range guidance depicts another trough developing across the West on Day 6/Thu and quickly progressing east through the end of the period. This could support a continued severe risk across parts of the southern Plains into the Midwest in the Thursday or Friday time frame. However, run to run consistency toward the end of the forecast period has not been very good. Additionally, multiple rounds of storms across the same areas earlier in the period may impact later severe potential. Trends will be monitored and probabilities may be needed in later outlooks.

..Leitman.. 04/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Friday, April 17

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110844 SPC AC 110844

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Tue – Southern Plains to Great Lakes

A shortwave upper trough embedded within the larger-scale western U.S. trough will eject across portions of the Plains to the Upper Midwest on Day 4/Tue. As this occurs, a surface low will deep over the central Plains and lift northeast across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. Some uncertainty remains regarding the exact evolution of this system, mainly due to differences in medium range guidance with respect to surface low placement and timing of the upper shortwave trough. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass is expected ahead of the low and to the east of a Plains dryline and south of a Great Lakes warm front. Thunderstorm development should be more widespread along these boundaries compared to prior days given stronger large-scale ascent will overspread the central U.S., and height falls will result in a more robust low-level jet response. As a result, an all-hazards severe event is expected from the southern Plains into portions of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Tuesday/Tuesday night.

Day 5/Wed – Southern Plains to the Midwest

Medium range guidance varies heading into Wednesday with the operational GFS much more progressive and lower amplitude than the operational ECMWF. The AIGFS is much more in-line with the ECMWF/AIFS, so this period is weighted more toward those solutions. It appears the upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject across the Plains to the Mid-MS Valley during this time. A moist and unstable airmass will reside across the region ahead of dryline across western OK into central TX and a sagging cold front across the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley. Areas of precipitation could be ongoing at the beginning of the period and does result in some uncertainty regarding where stronger destabilization will occur. Nevertheless, an overall favorable thermodynamic/kinematic parameter space will overlap this corridor and isolated to scattered severe storms appear likely.

Days 6-8/Thu-Sat

Medium range guidance depicts another trough developing across the West on Day 6/Thu and quickly progressing east through the end of the period. This could support a continued severe risk across parts of the southern Plains into the Midwest in the Thursday or Friday time frame. However, run to run consistency toward the end of the forecast period has not been very good. Additionally, multiple rounds of storms across the same areas earlier in the period may impact later severe potential. Trends will be monitored and probabilities may be needed in later outlooks.

..Leitman.. 04/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Saturday, April 18

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110844 SPC AC 110844

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Tue – Southern Plains to Great Lakes

A shortwave upper trough embedded within the larger-scale western U.S. trough will eject across portions of the Plains to the Upper Midwest on Day 4/Tue. As this occurs, a surface low will deep over the central Plains and lift northeast across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. Some uncertainty remains regarding the exact evolution of this system, mainly due to differences in medium range guidance with respect to surface low placement and timing of the upper shortwave trough. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass is expected ahead of the low and to the east of a Plains dryline and south of a Great Lakes warm front. Thunderstorm development should be more widespread along these boundaries compared to prior days given stronger large-scale ascent will overspread the central U.S., and height falls will result in a more robust low-level jet response. As a result, an all-hazards severe event is expected from the southern Plains into portions of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Tuesday/Tuesday night.

Day 5/Wed – Southern Plains to the Midwest

Medium range guidance varies heading into Wednesday with the operational GFS much more progressive and lower amplitude than the operational ECMWF. The AIGFS is much more in-line with the ECMWF/AIFS, so this period is weighted more toward those solutions. It appears the upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject across the Plains to the Mid-MS Valley during this time. A moist and unstable airmass will reside across the region ahead of dryline across western OK into central TX and a sagging cold front across the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley. Areas of precipitation could be ongoing at the beginning of the period and does result in some uncertainty regarding where stronger destabilization will occur. Nevertheless, an overall favorable thermodynamic/kinematic parameter space will overlap this corridor and isolated to scattered severe storms appear likely.

Days 6-8/Thu-Sat

Medium range guidance depicts another trough developing across the West on Day 6/Thu and quickly progressing east through the end of the period. This could support a continued severe risk across parts of the southern Plains into the Midwest in the Thursday or Friday time frame. However, run to run consistency toward the end of the forecast period has not been very good. Additionally, multiple rounds of storms across the same areas earlier in the period may impact later severe potential. Trends will be monitored and probabilities may be needed in later outlooks.

..Leitman.. 04/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

National Risk Overview

Saturday, April 11

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 15%

Sunday, April 12

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Monday, April 13

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Tuesday, April 14

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Wednesday, April 15

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Thursday, April 16

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, April 17

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Saturday, April 18

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

---

Your Severe Outlook

---

---

About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.

• tornado hq - live severe weather warnings
• cyclocane - hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones
• tornado solitaire - play cards while you monitor the US severe weather threat
• tertremo - live view of earthquakes around the world
• earthquake solitaire - get live earthquake updates as you play your favorite card game