Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, August 30
Outlook Summary
Severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible across portions of the northern Plains this afternoon and evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 301629
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026
Valid 301630Z - 311200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND FAR NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS
### SUMMARY
Severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible across portions of the northern Plains this afternoon and evening.
Northern High Plains into the northern Plains
Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving eastward across southern Saskatchewan and western MT/eastern ID. A belt of stronger westerly flow aloft likely exists within the base of this trough from eastern ID into western WY. Recent mesoanalysis estimates 50 to 60 kt at 500 mb, but its actual magnitude is uncertain. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are already ongoing downstream of this wave, and the general expectation is for these showers and thunderstorms to persist as the wave moves eastward, eventually encountering a notably more unstable airmass downstream.
Current surface observations show mid 60s dewpoints into the western Dakotas, with upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints farther west in eastern MT. Afternoon high temperatures are expected range from the low to mid 80s along the MT/ND border into the low 90s farther south into southwest SD. Despite relatively poor pre-frontal mid-level lapse rates, the resulting temperature/dewpoint combination will support MLCAPE ranging from around 500-1000 J/kg across eastern MT and the western Dakotas to closer to 2000 J/kg across the central Dakotas. Some low-level stability may linger, but should be overcome by the strong forcing, and the development of a line of strong to severe storms is anticipated. Strong to severe gusts will be the primary risk, with some instance of gusts from 65 to 80 mph possible. Maximum storm intensity and highest severe coverage is currently forecast to occur from the ND/SD/MT border intersection vicinity eastward into south-central ND and north-central SD. Decreasing buoyancy is expected from the central Dakotas eastward, with gradually decreasing storm intensity expected as the line of storms moves into this region this evening.
Central High Plains
Increased coverage and depth of the thunderstorms across UT indicate the presence of secondary area of ascent south of the primary shortwave trough, perhaps tied to a convectively augmented vorticity maximum. Expectation is for this vorticity maximum to progress eastward, persisting across the central Rockies before entering deeply mixed boundary-layer in place over the central High Plains. High-based storm character coupled with steep low-level lapse rates will support the development of strong outflow, and gusts from 60 to 75 mph are possible.
UT/Western CO
Thunderstorms are already ongoing from eastern UT into western CO, and deep-layer vertical shear is already strong enough to support organization within any more persistent updrafts. A few instances of hail and/or damaging gusts are possible with this activity. Additionally, considerable low-level moisture will remain over UT today, leading to another round of strong to isolated severe thunderstorms this afternoon. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for rotating storms capable of damaging wind gusts and hail. This additional activity should also spread into western CO before weakening this evening.
Central/Southern AZ
Ample low-level moisture remains in place across much of AZ, with upper 50s dewpoints across northern AZ increasing into the mid 60s across southern AZ. Another day of afternoon thunderstorms is anticipated as this moist airmass destabilizes amid strong diurnal heating. High-based storms coupled with moderate buoyancy and steep low-level lapse rates could result in a few strong to severe gusts across the region this afternoon and evening.
..Mosier/Moore.. 08/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Monday, August 31
Outlook Summary
Sparse severe thunderstorms, accompanied by wind and hail, are possible Monday from the central Plains toward parts of the Upper Midwest.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 301722
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO TO WISCONSIN
### SUMMARY
Sparse severe thunderstorms, accompanied by wind and hail, are possible Monday from the central Plains toward parts of the Upper Midwest.
Synopsis and Discussion
A deep upper low will move eastward across southern SK/MB on Monday, with 40-50 kt midlevel winds spreading across the Northern Plains and Upper MS Valley. Meanwhile, an upper high will centered from the Ozarks to the Mid MS/Lower OH Valleys. Farther west, modest southwest flow aloft will persist over much of the West, with a stronger shortwave trough moving into CA late.
At the surface, low pressure will occlude over SK/MB, with dry westerly winds over the Dakotas and into MN. South of this area, a weak surface trough/wind shift will remain, roughly from WI into IA and NE. Here, a moist air mass will exist, with 2000-3000 J/kg MUCAPE from IA into WI and northern IL. Lesser CAPE values will develop farther west across NE/KS/CO, with perhaps 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE.
Despite the larger instability over northern areas, forcing for ascent will be weak. However, areas of uncapped air mass may develop, possibly supporting isolated afternoon thunderstorms over WI. Conditionally, hail over 1.00" will be possible. Additional isolated activity is possible from IA into northern IL overnight.
A greater probability of thunderstorms in general will exist from CO into NE as an upper wave aloft travels northeast across the region late in the day. Strong heating over the central High Plains will support afternoon initiation near the Front Range, with clusters of storms producing strong to severe outflow, and propagating northeastward into NE. Initial activity could also produce marginally severe hail as effective shear averages near 45 kt.
..Jewell.. 08/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Tuesday, September 1
Outlook Summary
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday over parts of New York, Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Isolated severe storms may also extend westward into Nebraska.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 301934
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN NEW YORK ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND INTO NEW JERSEY
### SUMMARY
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday over parts of New York, Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Isolated severe storms may also extend westward into Nebraska.
Synopsis
A zone of moderate instability is forecast to stretch from the Upper Midwest eastward into parts of NY, PA and NJ on Tuesday. This will also be along a weak surface trough, where various areas of rain and thunderstorms will exist throughout the period. Anticyclonic flow aloft around the northern periphery of an upper ridge will yield 30-40 kt midlevel northwesterlies, and minor cooling aloft may occur as embedded disturbances move across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast.
Northeast
The greatest concentration of thunderstorms will be from NY into PA, both during the day and overnight. Early day storms will be possible from southern New England into NY, where elevated instability will exist. Destabilization will then occur south of this zone and possible outflows, with additional activity possible. Forcing for ascent should remain relatively weak, but sufficient convergence near any boundaries or an afternoon surface trough may support redevelopment. Elongated mid to upper level hodographs suggest cellular storm mode is possible, with hail and locally damaging gusts most likely. Overnight, additional activity is forecast as height falls occur upstream, and westerly winds at 850 mb maintain theta-e. Several models suggest storms moving out of Ontario overnight, with wind potential.
Nebraska into northwest Iowa and vicinity
Moderate southwest winds aloft will persist over this area, as daytime heating yield moderate instability. Some of this area may be affected by early day rain/storms, with boundary reinforcement. Strong heating and a developing southerly low-level jet should support new development, perhaps a supercell or two producing hail. Storm coverage may then increase during the evening and spread northeastward.
..Jewell.. 08/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Wednesday, September 2
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 2 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Thursday, September 3 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Friday, September 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, September 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, September 6 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300837 SPC AC 300837
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper ridge will remain centered over the TN Valley/central Appalachians through the end of the week before retrograding westward toward the Plains by next weekend. Multiple mid-level impulses and shortwave troughs will traverse the upper ridge this week before upper troughing dominates the Interior West toward the end of the extended forecast period. The best chances for severe thunderstorms will be with the aforementioned impulses traversing the ridge over the Great Lakes to the East Coast, particularly during the middle of the week.
Days 4-6 (Wednesday-Friday) - Northeast to Mid-Atlantic
Severe probabilities have been maintained for portions of the lower Hudson Valley into the Mid-Atlantic Day 4/Wednesday, as guidance consensus continues to show a well-timed shortwave trough overspreading this region. Medium-range guidance continues to show a convective precipitation signal accompanying this impulse along with appreciable buoyancy and vertical wind shear. It should be noted that convective overturning from Day 3 (Tuesday) storms may stabilize part of this area, with the specific location of storms becoming dependent on residual baroclinic boundaries. As such, the exact placement of Wednesday's severe probabilities may need to be adjusted accordingly.
Likewise, for Day 5/Thursday, another mid-level impulse will traverse the northeast extent of the upper ridge and overspread the Mid-Atlantic. Given adequate buoyancy and shear likely remaining in place, 15 percent severe probabilities have been introduced. As with the previous day, these probabilities may need some adjustment in future outlooks based on where airmass modification along baroclinic zones occurs.
Medium-range guidance continues to show a pronounced mid-level impulse, accompanied by adequate deep-layer shear and buoyancy, impinging on the Mid-Atlantic on Day 6/Friday, which would support at least an isolated severe threat. ML/AI guidance also suggests that the Friday severe threat would encompass the ending stages of a potential multi-day severe episode. Given the multiple preceding days of storms and constant shift in favorable corridors modulated by baroclinic zones, confidence is very low for realistically pinpointing a focused severe area. However, it appears the Delmarva may be the most likely area for seeing organized storm activity.
..Squitieri.. 08/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, September 3
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 2 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Thursday, September 3 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Friday, September 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, September 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, September 6 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300837 SPC AC 300837
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper ridge will remain centered over the TN Valley/central Appalachians through the end of the week before retrograding westward toward the Plains by next weekend. Multiple mid-level impulses and shortwave troughs will traverse the upper ridge this week before upper troughing dominates the Interior West toward the end of the extended forecast period. The best chances for severe thunderstorms will be with the aforementioned impulses traversing the ridge over the Great Lakes to the East Coast, particularly during the middle of the week.
Days 4-6 (Wednesday-Friday) - Northeast to Mid-Atlantic
Severe probabilities have been maintained for portions of the lower Hudson Valley into the Mid-Atlantic Day 4/Wednesday, as guidance consensus continues to show a well-timed shortwave trough overspreading this region. Medium-range guidance continues to show a convective precipitation signal accompanying this impulse along with appreciable buoyancy and vertical wind shear. It should be noted that convective overturning from Day 3 (Tuesday) storms may stabilize part of this area, with the specific location of storms becoming dependent on residual baroclinic boundaries. As such, the exact placement of Wednesday's severe probabilities may need to be adjusted accordingly.
Likewise, for Day 5/Thursday, another mid-level impulse will traverse the northeast extent of the upper ridge and overspread the Mid-Atlantic. Given adequate buoyancy and shear likely remaining in place, 15 percent severe probabilities have been introduced. As with the previous day, these probabilities may need some adjustment in future outlooks based on where airmass modification along baroclinic zones occurs.
Medium-range guidance continues to show a pronounced mid-level impulse, accompanied by adequate deep-layer shear and buoyancy, impinging on the Mid-Atlantic on Day 6/Friday, which would support at least an isolated severe threat. ML/AI guidance also suggests that the Friday severe threat would encompass the ending stages of a potential multi-day severe episode. Given the multiple preceding days of storms and constant shift in favorable corridors modulated by baroclinic zones, confidence is very low for realistically pinpointing a focused severe area. However, it appears the Delmarva may be the most likely area for seeing organized storm activity.
..Squitieri.. 08/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, September 4
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 2 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Thursday, September 3 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Friday, September 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, September 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, September 6 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300837 SPC AC 300837
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper ridge will remain centered over the TN Valley/central Appalachians through the end of the week before retrograding westward toward the Plains by next weekend. Multiple mid-level impulses and shortwave troughs will traverse the upper ridge this week before upper troughing dominates the Interior West toward the end of the extended forecast period. The best chances for severe thunderstorms will be with the aforementioned impulses traversing the ridge over the Great Lakes to the East Coast, particularly during the middle of the week.
Days 4-6 (Wednesday-Friday) - Northeast to Mid-Atlantic
Severe probabilities have been maintained for portions of the lower Hudson Valley into the Mid-Atlantic Day 4/Wednesday, as guidance consensus continues to show a well-timed shortwave trough overspreading this region. Medium-range guidance continues to show a convective precipitation signal accompanying this impulse along with appreciable buoyancy and vertical wind shear. It should be noted that convective overturning from Day 3 (Tuesday) storms may stabilize part of this area, with the specific location of storms becoming dependent on residual baroclinic boundaries. As such, the exact placement of Wednesday's severe probabilities may need to be adjusted accordingly.
Likewise, for Day 5/Thursday, another mid-level impulse will traverse the northeast extent of the upper ridge and overspread the Mid-Atlantic. Given adequate buoyancy and shear likely remaining in place, 15 percent severe probabilities have been introduced. As with the previous day, these probabilities may need some adjustment in future outlooks based on where airmass modification along baroclinic zones occurs.
Medium-range guidance continues to show a pronounced mid-level impulse, accompanied by adequate deep-layer shear and buoyancy, impinging on the Mid-Atlantic on Day 6/Friday, which would support at least an isolated severe threat. ML/AI guidance also suggests that the Friday severe threat would encompass the ending stages of a potential multi-day severe episode. Given the multiple preceding days of storms and constant shift in favorable corridors modulated by baroclinic zones, confidence is very low for realistically pinpointing a focused severe area. However, it appears the Delmarva may be the most likely area for seeing organized storm activity.
..Squitieri.. 08/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, September 5
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 2 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Thursday, September 3 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Friday, September 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, September 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, September 6 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300837 SPC AC 300837
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper ridge will remain centered over the TN Valley/central Appalachians through the end of the week before retrograding westward toward the Plains by next weekend. Multiple mid-level impulses and shortwave troughs will traverse the upper ridge this week before upper troughing dominates the Interior West toward the end of the extended forecast period. The best chances for severe thunderstorms will be with the aforementioned impulses traversing the ridge over the Great Lakes to the East Coast, particularly during the middle of the week.
Days 4-6 (Wednesday-Friday) - Northeast to Mid-Atlantic
Severe probabilities have been maintained for portions of the lower Hudson Valley into the Mid-Atlantic Day 4/Wednesday, as guidance consensus continues to show a well-timed shortwave trough overspreading this region. Medium-range guidance continues to show a convective precipitation signal accompanying this impulse along with appreciable buoyancy and vertical wind shear. It should be noted that convective overturning from Day 3 (Tuesday) storms may stabilize part of this area, with the specific location of storms becoming dependent on residual baroclinic boundaries. As such, the exact placement of Wednesday's severe probabilities may need to be adjusted accordingly.
Likewise, for Day 5/Thursday, another mid-level impulse will traverse the northeast extent of the upper ridge and overspread the Mid-Atlantic. Given adequate buoyancy and shear likely remaining in place, 15 percent severe probabilities have been introduced. As with the previous day, these probabilities may need some adjustment in future outlooks based on where airmass modification along baroclinic zones occurs.
Medium-range guidance continues to show a pronounced mid-level impulse, accompanied by adequate deep-layer shear and buoyancy, impinging on the Mid-Atlantic on Day 6/Friday, which would support at least an isolated severe threat. ML/AI guidance also suggests that the Friday severe threat would encompass the ending stages of a potential multi-day severe episode. Given the multiple preceding days of storms and constant shift in favorable corridors modulated by baroclinic zones, confidence is very low for realistically pinpointing a focused severe area. However, it appears the Delmarva may be the most likely area for seeing organized storm activity.
..Squitieri.. 08/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, September 6
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 2 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Thursday, September 3 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Friday, September 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, September 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, September 6 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300837 SPC AC 300837
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper ridge will remain centered over the TN Valley/central Appalachians through the end of the week before retrograding westward toward the Plains by next weekend. Multiple mid-level impulses and shortwave troughs will traverse the upper ridge this week before upper troughing dominates the Interior West toward the end of the extended forecast period. The best chances for severe thunderstorms will be with the aforementioned impulses traversing the ridge over the Great Lakes to the East Coast, particularly during the middle of the week.
Days 4-6 (Wednesday-Friday) - Northeast to Mid-Atlantic
Severe probabilities have been maintained for portions of the lower Hudson Valley into the Mid-Atlantic Day 4/Wednesday, as guidance consensus continues to show a well-timed shortwave trough overspreading this region. Medium-range guidance continues to show a convective precipitation signal accompanying this impulse along with appreciable buoyancy and vertical wind shear. It should be noted that convective overturning from Day 3 (Tuesday) storms may stabilize part of this area, with the specific location of storms becoming dependent on residual baroclinic boundaries. As such, the exact placement of Wednesday's severe probabilities may need to be adjusted accordingly.
Likewise, for Day 5/Thursday, another mid-level impulse will traverse the northeast extent of the upper ridge and overspread the Mid-Atlantic. Given adequate buoyancy and shear likely remaining in place, 15 percent severe probabilities have been introduced. As with the previous day, these probabilities may need some adjustment in future outlooks based on where airmass modification along baroclinic zones occurs.
Medium-range guidance continues to show a pronounced mid-level impulse, accompanied by adequate deep-layer shear and buoyancy, impinging on the Mid-Atlantic on Day 6/Friday, which would support at least an isolated severe threat. ML/AI guidance also suggests that the Friday severe threat would encompass the ending stages of a potential multi-day severe episode. Given the multiple preceding days of storms and constant shift in favorable corridors modulated by baroclinic zones, confidence is very low for realistically pinpointing a focused severe area. However, it appears the Delmarva may be the most likely area for seeing organized storm activity.
..Squitieri.. 08/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, August 30
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Monday, August 31
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Tuesday, September 1
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Wednesday, September 2
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Thursday, September 3
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Friday, September 4
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, September 5
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, September 6
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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