Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, May 16
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, severe/damaging winds (some 75+ mph), and a couple tornadoes remain possible tonight, especially across southern Nebraska and northern Kansas.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 30%
hail 30%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 170100
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026
Valid 170100Z - 171200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, severe/damaging winds (some 75+ mph), and a couple tornadoes remain possible tonight, especially across southern Nebraska and northern Kansas.
01z Update - Central Plains/Missouri Valley
Primary scenario this evening will be an upscale-growing/organizing cluster of storms across northern Kansas and southern Nebraska. A bit more spatial room has been given (southward adjusted) across northern Kansas (mostly north of I-70) for what may still be a post-01z increasing damaging wind potential, including significant-caliber wind gusts across northern Kansas and far southern Nebraska, aside from a lingering broad regional potential for some large hail as well. Measured 85 mph gusts have recently been reported near Colby, Kansas.
..Guyer.. 05/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Sunday, May 17
Outlook Summary
Severe storms are expected Sunday afternoon into Sunday night from portions of the central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Supercells with very large hail and strong tornadoes are possible, before one or more linear bands of storms leads to an increase in the wind damage risk.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 15%
wind 30%
hail 30%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 161734
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO…PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA…SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA…FAR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA…AND NORTHWEST IA
### SUMMARY
Severe storms are expected Sunday afternoon into Sunday night from portions of the central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Supercells with very large hail and strong tornadoes are possible, before one or more linear bands of storms leads to an increase in the wind damage risk.
Synopsis
A strong upper trough will dig across the western U.S. and pivot east toward the Rockies/Four Corners vicinity on Sunday into early Monday. Meanwhile, an early day upper shortwave impulse is expected to be located over MN/IA. This feature will lift northeast across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes through Saturday evening. Enhanced southwesterly deep layer flow will overspread the central High Plains to the Upper Midwest while mid to upper 60s F dewpoints spread north across portions of the southern/central Plains to the Mid-MO/MS Valley and as far north as southern MN/WI.
At the surface, a lee low will deepen across southeast CO into western KS. A sharp dryline is expected to extend southward across west-central KS into far western OK/TX. Meanwhile, a cold front will extend from eastern SD/central NE into northeast CO by afternoon, while a warm front extends west to east across southern MN/WI and into Lower MI. These boundaries will be focus for severe thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening.
Northeast CO into NE/SD/MN/IA
A volatile environment is expected to develop Sunday afternoon, particularly across parts of NE/SD/MN/IA. Initial thunderstorm development is expected across northeast CO into southwest NE within an upslope flow regime ahead of the approaching synoptic cold front. Low-level capping and weaker boundary layer moisture is expected across this area. However, even elevated convection atop the cooler/drier boundary layer will pose a risk for large to very large hail given very steep lapse rates, strong vertical shear and elongated/straight hodographs.
With time, additional convection is expected to develop further east within the warm sector across parts of eastern NE and southeast SD near the triple point and on the nose of the dry slot as a subtle lead shortwave impulse overspreads the region. While some morning cloudiness and showers could be ongoing across parts of the area this activity is expected to quickly shift northeast and allow for clearing. As a result,stronger heating of the moistening airmass will result in a narrow corridor of strong destabilization (MLCAPE 2500-3500 J/kg). Forecast soundings indicate supercell wind profiles, with effective shear greater than 40 kt across the region. Backed low-level winds within the warm sector, veering with height, will contribute to increasing low-level SRH and favorably curved low-level hodographs. While the corridor for discrete supercells will be narrow, partly due to capping and modest large-scale ascent and partly due to the advancing cold front resulting in upscale growth, the expectation is for a few supercells capable of producing strong tornadoes and large to very large hail across northeast NE/far southeast SD/southwest MN and northwest IA.
With time, one or more linear/bowing segments is expected to develop near the east/southeast-advancing cold front and as the low-level jet increases during the evening. An attendant risk of severe wind gusts will accompany this activity. The severe risk will diminish with time and eastward extent during the nighttime hours as instability weakens and capping increases.
KS/OK vicinity
A more conditional risk is expected across KS into the southern Plains vicinity. Capping and weak large-scale ascent will likely inhibit convection. Nevertheless, a favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment will reside along the surface dryline from west-central KS into western OK and eastern parts of the TX Panhandle toward western north TX. Hot conditions behind the dryline and moderate low-level convergence, particularly across the northwest OK vicinity, may support sufficient mixing/deeper dryline circulations such that a few storms develop. If these storms develop, they will likely be higher based. Given very steep low to midlevel lapse rates, moderate instability, and supercell wind profiles, large to very large hail and strong/severe wind gusts will be possible. Any storms that develop may struggle to move off the dryline, and the corridor for severe potential will likely remain confined.
Lower MI
Isolated thunderstorm are possible Sunday afternoon as a warm front lifts northward and a weak upper shortwave impulse overspreads the region. Weak to moderate destabilization is forecast as low-level moisture increases beneath modest midlevel lapse rates. While low-level winds will be light, vertically veering wind profiles and increasing southwesterly mid/upper level flow will support organized updrafts. Isolated gusty winds or small hail could occur with any surface-based storms that occur into the evening hours.
..Leitman.. 05/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Monday, May 18
Outlook Summary
Numerous strong thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday along a cold front and dryline extending from the Great Lakes into the central/southern Plains. Supercells capable of all hazards (including very large hail and strong to intense tornadoes) will be possible across central Kansas into southeastern Nebraska.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 30%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 161931
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA…CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS…SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA…PARTS OF IOWA…AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI
### SUMMARY
Numerous strong thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday along a cold front and dryline extending from the Great Lakes into the central/southern Plains. Supercells capable of all hazards (including very large hail and strong to intense tornadoes) will be possible across central Kansas into southeastern Nebraska.
Synopsis
An upper trough is forecast to extend from MT to the Four Corners Monday morning. An upper shortwave trough emanating from the base of the larger-scale western U.S. trough is forecast to lift northeast across the central Plains to the Upper Midwest through the period. As this occurs, a belt of strong southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread OK/KS into IA and the Great Lakes vicinity. Beneath enhanced southwesterly deep layer flow, rich Gulf moisture will spread north/northeast from the southern Plains into the Mid-MS Valley and Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a cold front will reside from the Upper MS Valley to a surface low over central KS during the afternoon. A dryline will extend southward from the KS surface low into western OK/west-central TX. A volatile environment is expected across parts of the warm sector, particularly across KS into IA, where significant all-hazards severe storms are expected.
Central KS into southeast NE/southwest IA/northwest MO
Upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints are forecast ahead of the dryline and cold front. This area should remain mostly free from convective contamination from any continuing convection from late in the Day 2/Sunday period. Strong heating and very steep midlevel lapse rates will contribute to strong destabilization. Supercell wind profiles are expected, with backed low-level winds veering with height, while also increasing in speed. Southerly 850-700 mb flow is forecast to strengthen in the 21-00z time frame as large-scale ascent also increases. This will allow for enlarged low-level hodograph curvature and increasing 0-1 km SRH. Robust convection will develop within the warm sector and supercell capable of very large hail (2-4 inch diameter), strong to intense tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts will be possible.
With time, convection will likely grow upscale as the surface cold front begins to develop southeast through the evening/nighttime hours.
Central IA into portions of IL/WI/IN/Lower MI
Uncertainty is greater with northeast extent on Monday. Ongoing convection and cloud cover is possible across parts of IA into WI Monday morning. Regardless, a moist airmass will be in place. Depending on location and extent of morning convection, airmass recovery is possible. Furthermore, downstream destabilization into parts of northern IL/IN and Lower MI seems more likely. This could result in re-intensification of any morning convection as it spreads east. While convective evolution remains uncertain, a damaging wind and hail risk appears possible.
OK/TX
A more conditional severe risk exists further south across OK/TX. Large-scale ascent will remain weaker further south. However, strong instability within the very moist warm sector will exist. Deep layer flow will be somewhat less compared to further north, but still sufficient for supercells. If storms can develop, a risk for large to very large hail will exist.
..Leitman.. 05/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Tuesday, May 19
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, May 19 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, May 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, May 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, May 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, May 23 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160858 SPC AC 160858
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Tuesday
Severe potential is expected to continue D4/Tuesday as the cold front extends from the upper Midwest to southern Plains. Moderate to strong instability ahead of the front will continue to support severe storms with potential for damaging wind and large hail from the northern part of the southern Plains northeastward into the Great Lakes Region. Probabilities were shifted eastward and northward with this update in alignment with continued trends for the timing/placement of the cold front.
D5/Wednesday - D8/Saturday
On Wednesday and Thursday, the cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon. However, strongest upper-level flow becomes displaced to the north from the better instability, which will reside along and south of the front across the southeastern US. This leads to low confidence in any organized severe threat.
D6/Thursday through D8/Saturday, moist southerly return flow will begin across the southern/central Plains into the weekend. Overall, forcing for ascent will remain limited with generally weak flow and height rises across the Plains. Areas of thunderstorms may continue from the far southern Plains into the Southeast, but confidence in a more focused corridor of severe weather threat remains low at this time.
..Thornton.. 05/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, May 20
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, May 19 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, May 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, May 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, May 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, May 23 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160858 SPC AC 160858
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Tuesday
Severe potential is expected to continue D4/Tuesday as the cold front extends from the upper Midwest to southern Plains. Moderate to strong instability ahead of the front will continue to support severe storms with potential for damaging wind and large hail from the northern part of the southern Plains northeastward into the Great Lakes Region. Probabilities were shifted eastward and northward with this update in alignment with continued trends for the timing/placement of the cold front.
D5/Wednesday - D8/Saturday
On Wednesday and Thursday, the cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon. However, strongest upper-level flow becomes displaced to the north from the better instability, which will reside along and south of the front across the southeastern US. This leads to low confidence in any organized severe threat.
D6/Thursday through D8/Saturday, moist southerly return flow will begin across the southern/central Plains into the weekend. Overall, forcing for ascent will remain limited with generally weak flow and height rises across the Plains. Areas of thunderstorms may continue from the far southern Plains into the Southeast, but confidence in a more focused corridor of severe weather threat remains low at this time.
..Thornton.. 05/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, May 21
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, May 19 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, May 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, May 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, May 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, May 23 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160858 SPC AC 160858
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Tuesday
Severe potential is expected to continue D4/Tuesday as the cold front extends from the upper Midwest to southern Plains. Moderate to strong instability ahead of the front will continue to support severe storms with potential for damaging wind and large hail from the northern part of the southern Plains northeastward into the Great Lakes Region. Probabilities were shifted eastward and northward with this update in alignment with continued trends for the timing/placement of the cold front.
D5/Wednesday - D8/Saturday
On Wednesday and Thursday, the cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon. However, strongest upper-level flow becomes displaced to the north from the better instability, which will reside along and south of the front across the southeastern US. This leads to low confidence in any organized severe threat.
D6/Thursday through D8/Saturday, moist southerly return flow will begin across the southern/central Plains into the weekend. Overall, forcing for ascent will remain limited with generally weak flow and height rises across the Plains. Areas of thunderstorms may continue from the far southern Plains into the Southeast, but confidence in a more focused corridor of severe weather threat remains low at this time.
..Thornton.. 05/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, May 22
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, May 19 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, May 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, May 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, May 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, May 23 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160858 SPC AC 160858
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Tuesday
Severe potential is expected to continue D4/Tuesday as the cold front extends from the upper Midwest to southern Plains. Moderate to strong instability ahead of the front will continue to support severe storms with potential for damaging wind and large hail from the northern part of the southern Plains northeastward into the Great Lakes Region. Probabilities were shifted eastward and northward with this update in alignment with continued trends for the timing/placement of the cold front.
D5/Wednesday - D8/Saturday
On Wednesday and Thursday, the cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon. However, strongest upper-level flow becomes displaced to the north from the better instability, which will reside along and south of the front across the southeastern US. This leads to low confidence in any organized severe threat.
D6/Thursday through D8/Saturday, moist southerly return flow will begin across the southern/central Plains into the weekend. Overall, forcing for ascent will remain limited with generally weak flow and height rises across the Plains. Areas of thunderstorms may continue from the far southern Plains into the Southeast, but confidence in a more focused corridor of severe weather threat remains low at this time.
..Thornton.. 05/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, May 23
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, May 19 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, May 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, May 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, May 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, May 23 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160858 SPC AC 160858
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Tuesday
Severe potential is expected to continue D4/Tuesday as the cold front extends from the upper Midwest to southern Plains. Moderate to strong instability ahead of the front will continue to support severe storms with potential for damaging wind and large hail from the northern part of the southern Plains northeastward into the Great Lakes Region. Probabilities were shifted eastward and northward with this update in alignment with continued trends for the timing/placement of the cold front.
D5/Wednesday - D8/Saturday
On Wednesday and Thursday, the cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon. However, strongest upper-level flow becomes displaced to the north from the better instability, which will reside along and south of the front across the southeastern US. This leads to low confidence in any organized severe threat.
D6/Thursday through D8/Saturday, moist southerly return flow will begin across the southern/central Plains into the weekend. Overall, forcing for ascent will remain limited with generally weak flow and height rises across the Plains. Areas of thunderstorms may continue from the far southern Plains into the Southeast, but confidence in a more focused corridor of severe weather threat remains low at this time.
..Thornton.. 05/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, May 16
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 30%
- WIND: 30%
- Sunday, May 17
- TORNADO: 15%
- HAIL: 30%
- WIND: 30%
- Monday, May 18
- ANY SEVERE: 30%
- Tuesday, May 19
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Wednesday, May 20
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, May 21
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, May 22
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, May 23
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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