Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, March 5
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon into tonight from northwest Texas and the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma and southern/central Kansas. Large to very large hail, a few tornadoes, and severe/damaging winds will all be possible within this corridor.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 30%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 051300
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 AM CST Thu Mar 05 2026
Valid 051300Z - 061200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon into tonight from northwest Texas and the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma and southern/central Kansas. Large to very large hail, a few tornadoes, and severe/damaging winds will all be possible within this corridor.
Southern/Central Plains
An upper trough will amplify over the western U.S. today as a broad zone of modestly enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow persists over the southern/central Plains. At the surface, lee cyclogenesis is forecast to occur across eastern CO through this evening, which will promote continued northward transport of low-level moisture across TX into OK/KS. A surface dryline will also extend southward from the low over the southern High Plains. Daytime heating of this moist airmass and the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates will support the development of at least 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by late afternoon along/east of the dryline. Most guidance continues to suggest that convective temperatures will be reached by 21-23Z across the southern High Plains.
While large-scale ascent will remain fairly nebulous, current expectations are for increasing low-level convergence along the dryline and a strengthening southerly low-level jet to encourage convective initiation across the eastern TX Panhandle and vicinity. Forecast deep-layer shear around 40 kt will easily support supercells with an associated threat for large to very large hail initially (potentially up to 2-3 inches in diameter). Increasing low-level shear through the evening will also foster enlarged low-level hodographs and the potential for a few tornadoes with this activity. With time this evening, convection is forecast to grow upscale into a small but potentially intense cluster as it moves northeastward into parts of western/northern OK and southern/central KS.
Isolated severe hail may occur tonight with elevated convection farther north in a low-level warm advection regime across eastern NE/ northwest MO into IA. Farther south, isolated supercells may also occur along the length of the dryline across west TX late this afternoon/evening, with associated threat for occasional large hail and severe gusts. However, confidence in any more than isolated coverage remains low due to weak large-scale forcing.
Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians
A mid-level shortwave trough will move quickly eastward today across the OH Valley. Modest low-level moisture will remain in place along/south of a front, with generally weak instability forecast across the warm sector. Even so, sufficiently strong low to mid-level winds associated with this shortwave trough may promote occasional damaging winds with loosely organized clusters that can develop and spread eastward through the afternoon.
Florida Peninsula
Beneath an upper high and within an easterly low-level flow regime, strong heating will occur today across the FL Peninsula, with dewpoints dropping into the mid 60s F. Despite the upper high, mid-level temperatures will remain relatively cool. Scattered convection appear probable along the western FL Peninsula during the afternoon where low-level convergence will be maximized. Locally strong wind gusts will be possible, though organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast owing to weak deep-layer shear.
..Gleason/Bentley.. 03/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Friday, March 6
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from late afternoon Friday through Friday night across parts of the central and southern Plains northeastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. The greatest potential for tornadoes, large to very large hail, and damaging winds is across eastern parts of Kansas and Oklahoma into western Missouri.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 10%
wind 30%
hail 30%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 050713
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 2 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 AM CST Thu Mar 05 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY
CORRECTED FOR TEXT
SUMMARY
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from late afternoon Friday through Friday night across parts of the central and southern Plains northeastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. The greatest potential for tornadoes, large to very large hail, and damaging winds is across eastern parts of Kansas and Oklahoma into western Missouri.
Southern and Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley
A strong upper-level system over the Desert Southwest, and an associated jet streak will eject northeastward across the central U.S. on Friday. At the surface, a moist airmass with surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F will spread northward from the southern Plains into the eastern part of the central Plains and into the lower Missouri Valley. As surface temperatures warm on Friday, moderate instability will develop across most of the moist sector. During the day, a cold front will advance southeastward into central Kansas as a dryline sharpens over west-central Oklahoma. To the east of these surface features, convective initiation is expected along a north-to-south corridor from northeast Kansas south-southwestward along the I-35 corridor into south-central Oklahoma. A significant severe weather event appears likely across the southern and central Plains into the lower Missouri Valley Friday afternoon and evening. Additional more isolated storms are expected to form near the Red River southward across north-central Texas into the Texas Hill Country. These storms will move eastward toward the western Ozarks and Ark-La-Tex during the evening.
A 70 to 90 knot mid-level jet will eject northeastward into the central Plains on Friday. The latest forecasts from the ECMWF have the jet coming through west-central Kansas positioned a bit further southeast. This will be a favorable location for a severe weather event across Oklahoma, Kansas and Missouri. NAM forecast soundings from Wichita to Oklahoma City in the late afternoon have 40 to 50 knots of 0-6 km shear with 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 8 C/km. In addition, strong low-level shear is forecast with curved hodographs. This environment will be favorable for supercells with tornadoes, large hail and damaging wind gusts. The more dominant supercells should be capable of producing 2 inch diameter hailstones. Hailstones around 3 inches in diameter will be possible with the most intense supercells. In the early evening, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to increase into the 300 to 450 m2/s2 range, which will support a potential for strong tornadoes. As storm coverage expands in the mid to late evening, a severe line segment is expected to develop and move into the western Ozarks. Tornadoes and severe wind gusts will be possible with rotating cells embedded in the line and with bowing line segments.
Further south into north-central Texas and the Texas Hill Country, a severe threat is expected during the afternoon and evening. Large-scale forcing will be more limited which will keep the storms more widely spaced. Forecast soundings in the late afternoon from Dallas/Worth southward into the Texas Hill Country have MLCAPE generally from 1500 to 2000 J/kg with 0-6km shear around 35 knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be near 7.5 C/km. This should support supercells with potential for large to very large hail and isolated severe wind gusts. The potential for tornadoes should be greatest in north-central Texas, where low-level shear will be stronger.
Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Southwestern Great Lakes
An upper-level trough will eject northeastward across the central U.S. on Friday afternoon and evening. Strong moisture advection will take place ahead of the system from the mid to upper Mississippi Valley into the southwestern Great Lakes. Surface heating during the day will result in weak instability across much of the region with scattered thunderstorms developing. Some of the cells could be associated with an isolated severe threat. However, the greater severe threat is expected to develop in the mid to late evening, as an 70 to 90 knot mid-level jet moves into the region. With this feature, strong large-scale ascent will likely result in multiple organized line segments. The more intense components of these lines should have a potential for severe wind gusts. An isolated tornado threat will also be possible.
..Broyles.. 03/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Saturday, March 7
Outlook Summary
Severe storms will be possible on Saturday from the Texas Coastal Plain into western Louisiana, and in the Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes. Wind damage will be the primary threat, except in parts of Texas where isolated large hail could also occur. A marginal severe threat will also be possible across the Southeast and Tennessee Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 050828
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Thu Mar 05 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN AND IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Severe storms will be possible on Saturday from the Texas Coastal Plain into western Louisiana, and in the Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes. Wind damage will be the primary threat, except in parts of Texas where isolated large hail could also occur. A marginal severe threat will also be possible across the Southeast and Tennessee Valley.
Texas Coastal Plain/Western Louisiana
Mid-level west-southwesterly flow will be in place from the south-central U.S. to the Eastern Seaboard on Saturday. At the surface, a cold front will move southeastward into the Texas Coastal Plains and Ark-La-Tex by afternoon. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front will be in the 60s F, contributing to moderate instability by midday. Thunderstorms are expected to form along the front early in the day and steadily increase in coverage. A large complex of storms is forecast to move southeastward across the Texas Coastal Plain and the Sabine River Valley during the afternoon and evening. Model forecasts suggest that 0-6 km shear will generally range from 30 to 35 knots, and that lapse rates will be steep in the low-levels. This should be favorable for a wind-damage threat with intense line segments that form ahead of the front. A few supercells with large hail and wind damage may also develop further southwest into the southern Texas Hill Country, where forecast soundings have stronger deep-layer shear. During the evening, the severe threat should move offshore from the middle and upper Texas into the Gulf.
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys/Southern and Central Appalachians
At mid-levels on Saturday, a shortwave trough will move eastward across the north-central U.S., as an associated jet streak translates through the Great Lakes. At the surface, a front will advance eastward across the mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will range from the 60s F in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, to the 50s F in the southern and central Appalachians. Weak instability is forecast to develop in most areas ahead of the front by afternoon. Forecast soundings in the upper Ohio Valley show very strong wind fields, with 30 to 40 knots of southwesterly flow just above the surface. This will contribute to a wind-damage threat with short line segments that form ahead of the front in the afternoon. The greatest wind-damage threat will likely be in the late afternoon as a low-level jet consolidates and strengthens across the upper Ohio Valley.
..Broyles.. 03/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Sunday, March 8
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, March 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, March 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, March 10 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, March 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, March 12 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050936 SPC AC 050936
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Thu Mar 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5
A moist airmass in the Gulf Coast region on Sunday will advect northward into the east-central U.S. on Monday. Over the top of this airmass, west-southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place. Although large-scale ascent is forecast to be limited on both days, isolated strong to marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon in areas that heat up sufficiently. The greatest potential for severe storms appears to be on Monday afternoon in the Ark-La-Tex, where moisture and low-level flow are currently forecast to be maximized.
Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8
On Tuesday, model forecasts move an upper-level system across northern Mexico, and retain southwesterly mid-level flow over much of the south-central U.S. A moist and unstable airmass is forecast over much of the southern and central Plains eastward into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. It appears that large-scale ascent associated with the upper-level trough will gradually increase over the southern and central Plains on Tuesday. In response, scattered thunderstorms should develop over parts of the moist sector Tuesday afternoon and evening. Although model forecasts have slowed the progression of the upper-level low, a belt of strong mid-level flow is still forecast over the south-central U.S. on Tuesday. This suggests that deep-layer shear will support severe thunderstorm development, potentially across a broad area. The severe threat is expected to continue from evening into the overnight period as the upper-level trough approaches.
On Wednesday, the upper-level trough and an associated cold front is forecast to move into the western Gulf Coast states. Ahead of the system, a moist and unstable airmass appears likely by afternoon. Thunderstorms that develop near and ahead of the front could have a severe threat. However, there are still questions about the timing of the trough and front. If model runs continue to suggest that the system will move into the western Gulf Coast states on Wednesday, then a risk area may need to be added. An isolated risk may also develop on Wednesday northeastward ahead of the front in parts of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys.
On Thursday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., as the cold front moves offshore into the western Atlantic. Thunderstorms with an isolated severe threat would be possible along parts of the Eastern Seaboard before the front passes. However, uncertainty at this extended range is considerable.
..Broyles.. 03/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, March 9
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, March 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, March 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, March 10 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, March 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, March 12 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050936 SPC AC 050936
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Thu Mar 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5
A moist airmass in the Gulf Coast region on Sunday will advect northward into the east-central U.S. on Monday. Over the top of this airmass, west-southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place. Although large-scale ascent is forecast to be limited on both days, isolated strong to marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon in areas that heat up sufficiently. The greatest potential for severe storms appears to be on Monday afternoon in the Ark-La-Tex, where moisture and low-level flow are currently forecast to be maximized.
Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8
On Tuesday, model forecasts move an upper-level system across northern Mexico, and retain southwesterly mid-level flow over much of the south-central U.S. A moist and unstable airmass is forecast over much of the southern and central Plains eastward into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. It appears that large-scale ascent associated with the upper-level trough will gradually increase over the southern and central Plains on Tuesday. In response, scattered thunderstorms should develop over parts of the moist sector Tuesday afternoon and evening. Although model forecasts have slowed the progression of the upper-level low, a belt of strong mid-level flow is still forecast over the south-central U.S. on Tuesday. This suggests that deep-layer shear will support severe thunderstorm development, potentially across a broad area. The severe threat is expected to continue from evening into the overnight period as the upper-level trough approaches.
On Wednesday, the upper-level trough and an associated cold front is forecast to move into the western Gulf Coast states. Ahead of the system, a moist and unstable airmass appears likely by afternoon. Thunderstorms that develop near and ahead of the front could have a severe threat. However, there are still questions about the timing of the trough and front. If model runs continue to suggest that the system will move into the western Gulf Coast states on Wednesday, then a risk area may need to be added. An isolated risk may also develop on Wednesday northeastward ahead of the front in parts of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys.
On Thursday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., as the cold front moves offshore into the western Atlantic. Thunderstorms with an isolated severe threat would be possible along parts of the Eastern Seaboard before the front passes. However, uncertainty at this extended range is considerable.
..Broyles.. 03/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, March 10
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, March 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, March 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, March 10 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, March 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, March 12 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050936 SPC AC 050936
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Thu Mar 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5
A moist airmass in the Gulf Coast region on Sunday will advect northward into the east-central U.S. on Monday. Over the top of this airmass, west-southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place. Although large-scale ascent is forecast to be limited on both days, isolated strong to marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon in areas that heat up sufficiently. The greatest potential for severe storms appears to be on Monday afternoon in the Ark-La-Tex, where moisture and low-level flow are currently forecast to be maximized.
Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8
On Tuesday, model forecasts move an upper-level system across northern Mexico, and retain southwesterly mid-level flow over much of the south-central U.S. A moist and unstable airmass is forecast over much of the southern and central Plains eastward into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. It appears that large-scale ascent associated with the upper-level trough will gradually increase over the southern and central Plains on Tuesday. In response, scattered thunderstorms should develop over parts of the moist sector Tuesday afternoon and evening. Although model forecasts have slowed the progression of the upper-level low, a belt of strong mid-level flow is still forecast over the south-central U.S. on Tuesday. This suggests that deep-layer shear will support severe thunderstorm development, potentially across a broad area. The severe threat is expected to continue from evening into the overnight period as the upper-level trough approaches.
On Wednesday, the upper-level trough and an associated cold front is forecast to move into the western Gulf Coast states. Ahead of the system, a moist and unstable airmass appears likely by afternoon. Thunderstorms that develop near and ahead of the front could have a severe threat. However, there are still questions about the timing of the trough and front. If model runs continue to suggest that the system will move into the western Gulf Coast states on Wednesday, then a risk area may need to be added. An isolated risk may also develop on Wednesday northeastward ahead of the front in parts of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys.
On Thursday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., as the cold front moves offshore into the western Atlantic. Thunderstorms with an isolated severe threat would be possible along parts of the Eastern Seaboard before the front passes. However, uncertainty at this extended range is considerable.
..Broyles.. 03/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, March 11
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, March 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, March 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, March 10 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, March 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, March 12 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050936 SPC AC 050936
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Thu Mar 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5
A moist airmass in the Gulf Coast region on Sunday will advect northward into the east-central U.S. on Monday. Over the top of this airmass, west-southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place. Although large-scale ascent is forecast to be limited on both days, isolated strong to marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon in areas that heat up sufficiently. The greatest potential for severe storms appears to be on Monday afternoon in the Ark-La-Tex, where moisture and low-level flow are currently forecast to be maximized.
Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8
On Tuesday, model forecasts move an upper-level system across northern Mexico, and retain southwesterly mid-level flow over much of the south-central U.S. A moist and unstable airmass is forecast over much of the southern and central Plains eastward into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. It appears that large-scale ascent associated with the upper-level trough will gradually increase over the southern and central Plains on Tuesday. In response, scattered thunderstorms should develop over parts of the moist sector Tuesday afternoon and evening. Although model forecasts have slowed the progression of the upper-level low, a belt of strong mid-level flow is still forecast over the south-central U.S. on Tuesday. This suggests that deep-layer shear will support severe thunderstorm development, potentially across a broad area. The severe threat is expected to continue from evening into the overnight period as the upper-level trough approaches.
On Wednesday, the upper-level trough and an associated cold front is forecast to move into the western Gulf Coast states. Ahead of the system, a moist and unstable airmass appears likely by afternoon. Thunderstorms that develop near and ahead of the front could have a severe threat. However, there are still questions about the timing of the trough and front. If model runs continue to suggest that the system will move into the western Gulf Coast states on Wednesday, then a risk area may need to be added. An isolated risk may also develop on Wednesday northeastward ahead of the front in parts of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys.
On Thursday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., as the cold front moves offshore into the western Atlantic. Thunderstorms with an isolated severe threat would be possible along parts of the Eastern Seaboard before the front passes. However, uncertainty at this extended range is considerable.
..Broyles.. 03/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, March 12
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, March 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, March 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, March 10 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, March 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, March 12 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050936 SPC AC 050936
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Thu Mar 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5
A moist airmass in the Gulf Coast region on Sunday will advect northward into the east-central U.S. on Monday. Over the top of this airmass, west-southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place. Although large-scale ascent is forecast to be limited on both days, isolated strong to marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon in areas that heat up sufficiently. The greatest potential for severe storms appears to be on Monday afternoon in the Ark-La-Tex, where moisture and low-level flow are currently forecast to be maximized.
Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8
On Tuesday, model forecasts move an upper-level system across northern Mexico, and retain southwesterly mid-level flow over much of the south-central U.S. A moist and unstable airmass is forecast over much of the southern and central Plains eastward into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. It appears that large-scale ascent associated with the upper-level trough will gradually increase over the southern and central Plains on Tuesday. In response, scattered thunderstorms should develop over parts of the moist sector Tuesday afternoon and evening. Although model forecasts have slowed the progression of the upper-level low, a belt of strong mid-level flow is still forecast over the south-central U.S. on Tuesday. This suggests that deep-layer shear will support severe thunderstorm development, potentially across a broad area. The severe threat is expected to continue from evening into the overnight period as the upper-level trough approaches.
On Wednesday, the upper-level trough and an associated cold front is forecast to move into the western Gulf Coast states. Ahead of the system, a moist and unstable airmass appears likely by afternoon. Thunderstorms that develop near and ahead of the front could have a severe threat. However, there are still questions about the timing of the trough and front. If model runs continue to suggest that the system will move into the western Gulf Coast states on Wednesday, then a risk area may need to be added. An isolated risk may also develop on Wednesday northeastward ahead of the front in parts of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys.
On Thursday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., as the cold front moves offshore into the western Atlantic. Thunderstorms with an isolated severe threat would be possible along parts of the Eastern Seaboard before the front passes. However, uncertainty at this extended range is considerable.
..Broyles.. 03/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, March 5
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 30%
- WIND: 15%
- Friday, March 6
- TORNADO: 10%
- HAIL: 30%
- WIND: 30%
- Saturday, March 7
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Sunday, March 8
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, March 9
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, March 10
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Wednesday, March 11
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, March 12
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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