Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, December 12
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 120552
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight.
DISCUSSION
Mid-level northwesterly flow will remain in place across most of the U.S. today and tonight, as a trough moves southeastward into the Great Lakes region. At the surface, a cold front will move southward into the south-central U.S., as a cold airmass moves into the northern states. Overall, conditions will remain dry over most of the nation today and tonight, eliminating any chance for thunderstorms.
..Broyles.. 12/12/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Saturday, December 13
Outlook Summary
Isolated weak thunderstorm activity is possible across South Florida and the Keys Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 120559
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated weak thunderstorm activity is possible across South Florida and the Keys Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.
Synopsis
The large-scale pattern on Saturday will feature a ridge across the western CONUS with troughing across the east. This mid-level trough will amplify on Saturday as a strong mid-level jet streak moves from the northern Plains to the Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will sharpen from the Ohio Valley to the Plains and move south rapidly Saturday evening.
South Florida
Tropical moisture will start to advect northward across the southern Florida Peninsula on Friday. If this advects far enough north during the day, a few thunderstorms may be possible on the eastern sea breeze. During the overnight period, storm chances will increase across the western Florida Peninsula as a mid-level shortwave trough traverses the Gulf. Limited instability should preclude any severe weather threat from this activity.
Shallow convection may develop along the southward moving cold front from southeast Texas to central Alabama late Saturday night, but warm temperatures aloft should limit lightning potential.
..Bentley.. 12/12/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Sunday, December 14
Outlook Summary
A few storms are possible across South Florida and the Florida Keys on Sunday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 120811
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
A few storms are possible across South Florida and the Florida Keys on Sunday.
Synopsis
A mid-level trough will advance from the Great Lakes to the western Atlantic on Sunday. To the west, a ridge will remain centered across the western CONUS. On the eastern periphery of this ridge, a secondary mid-level shortwave trough will move into the Upper Midwest. A very strong (1040mb+) area of high pressure will build into the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS Sunday and push a strong cold front into the Gulf by Sunday evening.
South Florida
A weak mid-level shortwave trough will approach the west coast of Florida on Sunday morning. As this trough advances east, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible across far south Florida. Weak lapse rates should limit storm intensity overall. Storms should wane by the evening as the boundary layer cools and northerly flow strengthens and brings cooler, drier air by Sunday night.
..Bentley.. 12/12/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Monday, December 15
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, December 14 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Monday, December 15 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, December 16 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, December 17 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, December 18 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110928 SPC AC 110928
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range model output indicates that the amplified trough, likely digging through the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley at the outset of the period, will continue rapidly digging across the U.S. Atlantic Seaboard, before pivoting offshore and supporting strong cyclogenesis through the northwestern Atlantic into early next week. In its wake, an initially expansive cold surface ridge, centered near the mid/lower Missouri Valley, may gradually weaken, but is forecast to continue southeastward into and across the offshore Atlantic, Florida Peninsula and much of the northern Gulf Basin.
Thereafter, it still appears that mid/upper flow may trend more zonal, particularly across the northern U.S. and southern Canada, downstream of a blocking high that is forecast to be maintained, but become suppressed to the south of the Aleutians. Short wave developments embedded within this regime remain uncertain, but there is still at least some signal that a developing southerly return flow may support a modest influx of moisture off the northwestern Gulf by the middle of next week. This could contribute to thunderstorm development across parts of the Mid South through portions of the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Wednesday into Thursday, ahead of a modest cold front. However, at this time, it appears that some combination of weak/limited destabilization and modest shear/forcing for ascent will tend to minimize the risk for severe storms.
..Kerr.. 12/11/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, December 16
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, December 14 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Monday, December 15 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, December 16 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, December 17 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, December 18 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110928 SPC AC 110928
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range model output indicates that the amplified trough, likely digging through the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley at the outset of the period, will continue rapidly digging across the U.S. Atlantic Seaboard, before pivoting offshore and supporting strong cyclogenesis through the northwestern Atlantic into early next week. In its wake, an initially expansive cold surface ridge, centered near the mid/lower Missouri Valley, may gradually weaken, but is forecast to continue southeastward into and across the offshore Atlantic, Florida Peninsula and much of the northern Gulf Basin.
Thereafter, it still appears that mid/upper flow may trend more zonal, particularly across the northern U.S. and southern Canada, downstream of a blocking high that is forecast to be maintained, but become suppressed to the south of the Aleutians. Short wave developments embedded within this regime remain uncertain, but there is still at least some signal that a developing southerly return flow may support a modest influx of moisture off the northwestern Gulf by the middle of next week. This could contribute to thunderstorm development across parts of the Mid South through portions of the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Wednesday into Thursday, ahead of a modest cold front. However, at this time, it appears that some combination of weak/limited destabilization and modest shear/forcing for ascent will tend to minimize the risk for severe storms.
..Kerr.. 12/11/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, December 17
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, December 14 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Monday, December 15 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, December 16 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, December 17 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, December 18 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110928 SPC AC 110928
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range model output indicates that the amplified trough, likely digging through the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley at the outset of the period, will continue rapidly digging across the U.S. Atlantic Seaboard, before pivoting offshore and supporting strong cyclogenesis through the northwestern Atlantic into early next week. In its wake, an initially expansive cold surface ridge, centered near the mid/lower Missouri Valley, may gradually weaken, but is forecast to continue southeastward into and across the offshore Atlantic, Florida Peninsula and much of the northern Gulf Basin.
Thereafter, it still appears that mid/upper flow may trend more zonal, particularly across the northern U.S. and southern Canada, downstream of a blocking high that is forecast to be maintained, but become suppressed to the south of the Aleutians. Short wave developments embedded within this regime remain uncertain, but there is still at least some signal that a developing southerly return flow may support a modest influx of moisture off the northwestern Gulf by the middle of next week. This could contribute to thunderstorm development across parts of the Mid South through portions of the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Wednesday into Thursday, ahead of a modest cold front. However, at this time, it appears that some combination of weak/limited destabilization and modest shear/forcing for ascent will tend to minimize the risk for severe storms.
..Kerr.. 12/11/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, December 18
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, December 14 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Monday, December 15 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, December 16 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, December 17 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, December 18 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110928 SPC AC 110928
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range model output indicates that the amplified trough, likely digging through the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley at the outset of the period, will continue rapidly digging across the U.S. Atlantic Seaboard, before pivoting offshore and supporting strong cyclogenesis through the northwestern Atlantic into early next week. In its wake, an initially expansive cold surface ridge, centered near the mid/lower Missouri Valley, may gradually weaken, but is forecast to continue southeastward into and across the offshore Atlantic, Florida Peninsula and much of the northern Gulf Basin.
Thereafter, it still appears that mid/upper flow may trend more zonal, particularly across the northern U.S. and southern Canada, downstream of a blocking high that is forecast to be maintained, but become suppressed to the south of the Aleutians. Short wave developments embedded within this regime remain uncertain, but there is still at least some signal that a developing southerly return flow may support a modest influx of moisture off the northwestern Gulf by the middle of next week. This could contribute to thunderstorm development across parts of the Mid South through portions of the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Wednesday into Thursday, ahead of a modest cold front. However, at this time, it appears that some combination of weak/limited destabilization and modest shear/forcing for ascent will tend to minimize the risk for severe storms.
..Kerr.. 12/11/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, December 12
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Saturday, December 13
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Sunday, December 14
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Monday, December 15
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, December 16
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, December 17
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, December 18
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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