Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, March 14
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe hail and gusty winds may occur with thunderstorms that develop across parts of the southern Florida Peninsula this afternoon.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 141955
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
Valid 142000Z - 151200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe hail and gusty winds may occur with thunderstorms that develop across parts of the southern Florida Peninsula this afternoon.
20Z Update
No changes to the ongoing forecast are necessary. Recent observed soundings from central/south Florida showed potential for marginally severe storms, though a mid-level subsidence layer was noted with northern extent. Additional short-term details can be found in MD #237.
..Wendt.. 03/14/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026/
Florida
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon across parts of the FL Peninsula and the Keys, with agitated cu noted on recent visible satellite imagery across east-central to southeast FL. Greater low-level moisture is present across central/south FL, where 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints exist per latest observations. Continued daytime heating of this moist airmass will support the development of moderate instability through the afternoon. Modest mid-level lapse rates (reference 00Z MFL and 12Z KEY observed soundings) and weak low/mid-level winds may tend to limit updraft strength. Even so, modestly enhanced upper-level winds and related deep-layer shear around 25-30 kt could support isolated severe hail and gusty downdraft winds with the strongest cores that develop. Have added a Marginal Risk for this potential across parts of the southern FL Peninsula and vicinity where the greatest concentration of convection is expected.
Northern Rockies/High Plains
Moisture will remain meager today (surface dewpoints generally in the teens and 20s) across the northern Rockies and High Plains as an upper trough amplifies and a surface cold front advances southward over this region. Even so, cold temperatures aloft may support very weak MUCAPE and occasional lightning flashes with low-topped convection that should develop from eastern ID/southern MT into much of WY and vicinity this afternoon/evening. While gusty winds may occur with this activity, the very limited thermodynamic environment should preclude organized severe thunderstorms.
Upper Midwest
Low-level warm/moist advection will increase tonight into early Sunday morning across parts of the Upper Midwest as a south-southwesterly low-level jet strengthens. Weak MUCAPE (generally less than 1000 J/kg) along and north of a warm front and strong large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough ejecting eastward over the northern Plains may support elevated thunderstorms late tonight (mainly after 15/06Z) across parts of IA/MN/WI. Small hail could occur with the strongest cores, and lightning flashes appear possible with mixed/wintry precipitation well north of the warm front into MN/WI.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Sunday, March 15
Outlook Summary
Scattered to widespread damaging winds along with tornadoes should develop on Sunday afternoon, persisting through Sunday night across a large portion of the South-Central/Southeast States into the Midwest/Ohio Valley. The greatest strong tornado and significant severe wind threats appear to be from the Ark-La-Miss to the Lower Ohio Valley on Sunday evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 10%
wind 45%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 141730
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ARK-LA-TEX/ARK-LA-MISS TO THE WABASH/LOWER OH VALLEYS
### SUMMARY
Scattered to widespread damaging winds along with tornadoes should develop on Sunday afternoon, persisting through Sunday night across a large portion of the South-Central/Southeast States into the Midwest/Ohio Valley. The greatest strong tornado and significant severe wind threats appear to be from the Ark-La-Miss to the Lower Ohio Valley on Sunday evening.
Synopsis
An upper trough will amplify across the central states on Sunday and become centered from WI to the Ark-La-Tex by 12Z Monday. Associated surface cyclone will track from the IA/MO border to Lower MI, deepening Sunday evening/night. As this occurs, attendant cold front will accelerate eastward across the Mid-MS to the OH Valleys. Trailing portion of the front will sweep south-southeast into the northwest Gulf to central Gulf Coast through Monday morning.
Primary changes with the level 3-ENH risk are to include a 10-percent tornado area, southward expansion of 45-percent wind, and addition of 15-percent and CIG1 hail areas. Expansion of level 1-2/MRGL-SLGT risk areas has occurred over the Southeast for mainly the 06-12Z period Monday. Uncertainty is greatest on the western extent for where convection should become severe, and the northern extent within a thermodynamically challenged environment.
South-Central/Southeast States to the Midwest
In the wake of morning elevated convection over a portion of the Mid/Upper MS Valley, midday convective development should occur along the highly convergent surface front across a part of the Mid-MS Valley to the Ozarks. This activity may initially remain shallow, before deepening and greatly expand in coverage through the afternoon as it impinges on richer boundary-layer moisture towards the Ark-La-Tex and the Mid-South portion of the MS Valley. By late afternoon, an extensively long QLCS should become established from IL south-southwestward. Semi-discrete supercell development appears most favored along the southern portion of the broader convective plume near the front and downstream within a strengthening warm/moist conveyor. This should support potential for large hail and a couple strong tornadoes before supercells become absorbed within the broader QLCS during the evening. This scenario should also yield an increasingly pinched-off warm-moist sector from the Mid-South to TN Valley. Despite this aspect, substantial strengthening of 700-mb winds on either side of the front, initially across the Mid-South vicinity and expanding to the OH to TN Valleys, will yield a setup conductive for scattered to widespread damaging wind swaths through the evening.
On Sunday night, the northern extent of the severe threat should become more sporadic as surface-based instability becomes/remains minimal. But the very fast lower-level wind fields may yield persistence of some damaging wind/brief tornado potential eastward in the OH Valley/southern Great Lakes. Farther south, there are increasing signals for renewed low-level warm conveyor convective development across the central to northeast Gulf Coast vicinity early Monday morning. Deep-layer shear profiles will be conducive to semi-discrete supercells just ahead of/merging into the progressive QLCS. This should foster a period of increased large hail/sustained tornado potential. Otherwise, damaging winds will remain favored from at least the FL Panhandle to the southern Appalachians.
..Grams.. 03/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Monday, March 16
Outlook Summary
Scattered to widespread severe storms are likely on Monday for parts of the Mid-Atlantic States and Southeast. The greatest potential for strong tornadoes and significant damaging winds appears centered on parts of South Carolina to Maryland during the late morning to afternoon.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 45%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 141938
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SC TO SOUTHERN PA
### SUMMARY
Scattered to widespread severe storms are likely on Monday for parts of the Mid-Atlantic States and Southeast. The greatest potential for strong tornadoes and significant damaging winds appears centered on parts of South Carolina to Maryland during the late morning to afternoon.
Mid-Atlantic and Southeast
Primary changes this outlook are to add a 45 total severe probability along with minor northeast and southeast expansion to the categorical risk areas. Portions of the region, centered on SC to MD, may warrant an upgrade to a level 4/Moderate Risk in later outlooks.
A large and deepening upper trough will eject east/northeastward out of the MS/OH/TN Valleys and across the Appalachians and into the Mid Atlantic/Northeast on Monday, with an expansive area of strong to intense wind fields aloft. A deep cyclone will move from Lower MI into QC, with an occluding cold front arcing southeast across the northern Appalachians, then south-southwest into the northern Gulf. This front will clear all but the FL Peninsula by Monday evening.
Ahead of the front, seasonably rich low-level moisture characterized by 60s surface dew points will spread northward from the eastern Gulf/western Atlantic. Convection will likely be ongoing at 12Z Monday, low-topped along the Upper OH Valley to central Appalachian portion of the front to deep convection in the lee of the southern Appalachians to eastern FL Panhandle. A diurnal uptick in storm intensity, including potential for semi-discrete supercells ahead of the front, should occur from north FL to the Carolina Piedmont. Further intensification is anticipated midday into the afternoon as a confined corridor of moderate buoyancy likely develops just ahead of morning storms.
Enlarged low-level hodograph curvature, in conjunction with favorable elongation of the mid/upper hodograph, should foster a mix of broken supercells south with line-embedded supercells in the reinvigorated QLCS north. With such intense 700-mb flow aptly timed with the diurnal heating cycle overlying rich low-level moisture, setup could yield an expansive severe weather day, including strong tornadoes and significant damaging winds. The degree of boundary-layer heating, as well as timing of convection that may outpace the front late D2 into early D3, will play key roles in how intense severe magnitudes may become. At present, the most likely corridor for significant/widespread severe appears centered on the eastern Piedmont to coastal plain from SC to MD around midday into the afternoon.
..Grams.. 03/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Tuesday, March 17
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, March 17 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, March 18 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, March 19 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, March 20 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, March 21 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140850 SPC AC 140850
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
On Tuesday/D4, a large upper trough will move across the Northeast, though the associated surface cold front will already be well offshore the East Coast with high pressure over land. Behind this upper trough, models indicate a large upper ridge will be situated over the Southwest for several days, with a northwest flow pattern across the Plains. Given this pattern, minimal appreciable moisture return is expected over the CONUS, and severe storms appear unlikely through Saturday/D8.
..Jewell.. 03/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, March 18
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, March 17 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, March 18 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, March 19 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, March 20 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, March 21 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140850 SPC AC 140850
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
On Tuesday/D4, a large upper trough will move across the Northeast, though the associated surface cold front will already be well offshore the East Coast with high pressure over land. Behind this upper trough, models indicate a large upper ridge will be situated over the Southwest for several days, with a northwest flow pattern across the Plains. Given this pattern, minimal appreciable moisture return is expected over the CONUS, and severe storms appear unlikely through Saturday/D8.
..Jewell.. 03/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, March 19
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, March 17 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, March 18 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, March 19 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, March 20 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, March 21 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140850 SPC AC 140850
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
On Tuesday/D4, a large upper trough will move across the Northeast, though the associated surface cold front will already be well offshore the East Coast with high pressure over land. Behind this upper trough, models indicate a large upper ridge will be situated over the Southwest for several days, with a northwest flow pattern across the Plains. Given this pattern, minimal appreciable moisture return is expected over the CONUS, and severe storms appear unlikely through Saturday/D8.
..Jewell.. 03/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, March 20
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, March 17 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, March 18 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, March 19 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, March 20 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, March 21 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140850 SPC AC 140850
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
On Tuesday/D4, a large upper trough will move across the Northeast, though the associated surface cold front will already be well offshore the East Coast with high pressure over land. Behind this upper trough, models indicate a large upper ridge will be situated over the Southwest for several days, with a northwest flow pattern across the Plains. Given this pattern, minimal appreciable moisture return is expected over the CONUS, and severe storms appear unlikely through Saturday/D8.
..Jewell.. 03/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, March 21
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, March 17 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, March 18 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, March 19 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, March 20 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, March 21 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140850 SPC AC 140850
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
On Tuesday/D4, a large upper trough will move across the Northeast, though the associated surface cold front will already be well offshore the East Coast with high pressure over land. Behind this upper trough, models indicate a large upper ridge will be situated over the Southwest for several days, with a northwest flow pattern across the Plains. Given this pattern, minimal appreciable moisture return is expected over the CONUS, and severe storms appear unlikely through Saturday/D8.
..Jewell.. 03/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, March 14
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Sunday, March 15
- TORNADO: 10%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 45%
- Monday, March 16
- ANY SEVERE: 45%
- Tuesday, March 17
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, March 18
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, March 19
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, March 20
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, March 21
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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