Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, August 18
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be possible this afternoon and evening from the central Plains into the lower Missouri Valley. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible from the Northern High Plains eastward into the Midwest and southern Great Lakes.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 180556
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be possible this afternoon and evening from the central Plains into the lower Missouri Valley. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible from the Northern High Plains eastward into the Midwest and southern Great Lakes.
Central and Northern Plains
At mid-levels, a broad cyclonic flow pattern will be in place over the northern U.S. A shortwave trough will move across the central and northern Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward into Nebraska by afternoon. To the south of the front, an outflow boundary from morning convection will move southward into northern Kansas. A moist airmass will exist between the two boundaries with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s F. Within the moist air, moderate to strong instability will develop by afternoon. The outflow boundary will be a focus for convective initiation during the day, while additional storms are expected to develop further west across the central High Plains in the late afternoon. Increasing convective coverage during the early evening should result in the development of a line segment.
RAP forecast soundings at 00Z from Salina to Kansas City have MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range with 0-6 km shear around 40 knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be in the 7 to 8 C/km range. This environment will support supercells with isolated large hail. The large hail threat will extend west-northwestward into southwest Nebraska during the late afternoon where mid-level lapse rates will be steeper and cells will likely remain discrete. The greatest wind-damage potential is forecast from northern and eastern Kansas into far western Missouri, where the development of an organized bowing line segment will be possible in the early evening. Wind gusts above 75 mph will be possible along the path of any intense line segment. The severe threat may impact parts of lower Missouri Valley and Ozarks by mid to late evening.
Midwest/Great Lakes
A mid-level shortwave trough will move across the north-central U.S. today, as a cold front advances southeastward across the Midwest and Great Lakes. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to moderate instability along an west-northwest-to-east-northeast axis from the mid Mississippi Valley into the southern Great Lakes. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear likely to form along and south of the front in the late afternoon and early evening. MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range, 0-6 km shear around 40 knots and precipitable water in the 1.7 to 1.9 inch range will be favorable for isolated severe storms capable of severe wet downbursts.
Northern High Plains
Northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place today from the Northern Rockies into the Northern High Plains. At the surface, dewpoints along the moist axis from northeastern Wyoming into central Montana will be around 50 F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, MLCAPE is expected to increase to around 1000 J/kg in parts of the northern High Plains. Thunderstorms are expected to form in the higher terrain in the afternoon, moving east-southeastward into the lower elevations. Due to the instability and steep low to mid-level lapse rates, isolated severe wind gusts will be possible with the stronger cells.
..Broyles/Jirak.. 08/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Wednesday, August 19
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce hail and strong to severe wind gusts from the central Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley and Ozarks. The greatest risk area is from the Ozarks into the Lower Ohio Valley Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 180546
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS…AND INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce hail and strong to severe wind gusts from the central Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley and Ozarks. The greatest risk area is from the Ozarks into the Lower Ohio Valley Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Southern MO…Northern AR…Western KY/TN…Southern IL
Gradual height falls will occur throughout the period as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves out of the Plains and toward Mid MS/OH Valleys. Early day thunderstorms may be ongoing from MO into the Lower OH Valley, but perhaps not particularly strong. Behind this initial activity, strong instability will redevelop from MO into northern AR, and western KY/TN with southwest low-level winds and 70s F dewpoints near a southward moving front over southern MO. Predictability is a bit low for the boundary position, but storms may form anywhere from I-70 southward into northern AR during the late afternoon, moving east/southeast during the evening. Corridors of damaging wind and hail will be possible, with any brief tornado chances depending on earlier outflows which may enhance low-level shear.
Central and Northern Plains
A shortwave trough will move from the northern Plains into the Mid MS Valley on Wednesday, with 40 kt northwest flow at 500 mb across much of the central Plains. Although a front will push south across OK and the TX Panhandle, low-level moisture with 50s to 60s F dewpoints will remain beneath this upper trough, and strong heating will lead to clusters of storms within a weak surface trough/wind shift by late afternoon. Favored areas will be from SD into NE where temperatures aloft will be cold and counteract the lack of low-level moisture, and from the Front Range southward into northeast NM. Scattered hail over 1.00" or locally severe gusts will be possible through early evening as storms travel southeastward out of the High Plains and across SD, NE and KS.
..Jewell.. 08/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Thursday, August 20
Outlook Summary
Scattered strong to severe storms may occur on Thursday from Minnesota into Nebraska and northern Kansas, producing large hail and localized wind damage. Scattered storms may also produce locally severe gusts from eastern Virginia into North Carolinas.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 180727
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS…AND OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA
### SUMMARY
Scattered strong to severe storms may occur on Thursday from Minnesota into Nebraska and northern Kansas, producing large hail and localized wind damage. Scattered storms may also produce locally severe gusts from eastern Virginia into North Carolinas.
Northern Plains
An upper ridge will build over the West on Thursday, with tightening midlevel height gradient over the northern Plains. This will result in increasing winds out of the northwest, with over 40 kt at 500 mb. At the surface, a trough/wind shift is forecast to extend roughly from MN into NE, with steep lapse rates developing. Storms will likely form along this boundary during the afternoon, with scattered cells producing large hail. Some predictability issues exist amongst models, and therefore will defer a categorical upgrade to later updates. The combination of 40+ kt of deep layer shear, steep lapse rates and 60s F dewpoints may support hail at or above 2.00" diameter.
Eastern VA and NC
A mid/upper wave will cross the Appalachians as a surface trough develops during the afternoon. This will bring midlevel winds of 30-40 kt across MD/VA and into northern NC, aiding deep-layer shear as well as overall mean wind speeds. At least isolated severe storms appear possible from eastern VA into NC where 70s F dewpoints will support moderate instability, with favorable afternoon timing supporting localized wind damage.
..Jewell.. 08/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Friday, August 21
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, August 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, August 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, August 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, August 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, August 25 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180824 SPC AC 180824
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
For the Fri/D4 to Tue/D8 period, an upper ridge is forecast to expand from the Four Corners states into the Southern Plains, with northwest flow aloft over the Northern Plains shifting east across Midwest and into the Northeast.
On Fri/D4, scattered storms may occur across the Central Plains and Cornbelt, with areas of moisture and instability beneath the 30-40 kt northwest flow regime favor scattered hail or strong wind gusts. Predictability is low due to the likelihood of ongoing storms or convective systems early in the day, which may affect air mass quality and effective boundary positioning. However, the NE/KS/IA/MO region appears to be the most likely area for an eventual risk area.
Also on Fri/D4, storms are again expected over parts of the Mid Atlantic to Carolinas, where 25 kt southwest flow in the midlevels and a surface trough will support scattered storm clusters producing locally damaging gusts. Areas of ongoing storms or outflows from the previous day's convection may have an impact here as well as far as the most favorable zones for additional severe storms.
There may also be some potential on Sat/D5 to Sun/D6 over parts of the Mid Atlantic as cooling aloft with an upper trough moves across the area. Timing of this trough will be critical, as will the movement of the associated cold front.
..Jewell.. 08/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, August 22
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, August 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, August 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, August 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, August 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, August 25 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180824 SPC AC 180824
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
For the Fri/D4 to Tue/D8 period, an upper ridge is forecast to expand from the Four Corners states into the Southern Plains, with northwest flow aloft over the Northern Plains shifting east across Midwest and into the Northeast.
On Fri/D4, scattered storms may occur across the Central Plains and Cornbelt, with areas of moisture and instability beneath the 30-40 kt northwest flow regime favor scattered hail or strong wind gusts. Predictability is low due to the likelihood of ongoing storms or convective systems early in the day, which may affect air mass quality and effective boundary positioning. However, the NE/KS/IA/MO region appears to be the most likely area for an eventual risk area.
Also on Fri/D4, storms are again expected over parts of the Mid Atlantic to Carolinas, where 25 kt southwest flow in the midlevels and a surface trough will support scattered storm clusters producing locally damaging gusts. Areas of ongoing storms or outflows from the previous day's convection may have an impact here as well as far as the most favorable zones for additional severe storms.
There may also be some potential on Sat/D5 to Sun/D6 over parts of the Mid Atlantic as cooling aloft with an upper trough moves across the area. Timing of this trough will be critical, as will the movement of the associated cold front.
..Jewell.. 08/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, August 23
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, August 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, August 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, August 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, August 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, August 25 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180824 SPC AC 180824
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
For the Fri/D4 to Tue/D8 period, an upper ridge is forecast to expand from the Four Corners states into the Southern Plains, with northwest flow aloft over the Northern Plains shifting east across Midwest and into the Northeast.
On Fri/D4, scattered storms may occur across the Central Plains and Cornbelt, with areas of moisture and instability beneath the 30-40 kt northwest flow regime favor scattered hail or strong wind gusts. Predictability is low due to the likelihood of ongoing storms or convective systems early in the day, which may affect air mass quality and effective boundary positioning. However, the NE/KS/IA/MO region appears to be the most likely area for an eventual risk area.
Also on Fri/D4, storms are again expected over parts of the Mid Atlantic to Carolinas, where 25 kt southwest flow in the midlevels and a surface trough will support scattered storm clusters producing locally damaging gusts. Areas of ongoing storms or outflows from the previous day's convection may have an impact here as well as far as the most favorable zones for additional severe storms.
There may also be some potential on Sat/D5 to Sun/D6 over parts of the Mid Atlantic as cooling aloft with an upper trough moves across the area. Timing of this trough will be critical, as will the movement of the associated cold front.
..Jewell.. 08/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, August 24
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, August 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, August 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, August 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, August 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, August 25 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180824 SPC AC 180824
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
For the Fri/D4 to Tue/D8 period, an upper ridge is forecast to expand from the Four Corners states into the Southern Plains, with northwest flow aloft over the Northern Plains shifting east across Midwest and into the Northeast.
On Fri/D4, scattered storms may occur across the Central Plains and Cornbelt, with areas of moisture and instability beneath the 30-40 kt northwest flow regime favor scattered hail or strong wind gusts. Predictability is low due to the likelihood of ongoing storms or convective systems early in the day, which may affect air mass quality and effective boundary positioning. However, the NE/KS/IA/MO region appears to be the most likely area for an eventual risk area.
Also on Fri/D4, storms are again expected over parts of the Mid Atlantic to Carolinas, where 25 kt southwest flow in the midlevels and a surface trough will support scattered storm clusters producing locally damaging gusts. Areas of ongoing storms or outflows from the previous day's convection may have an impact here as well as far as the most favorable zones for additional severe storms.
There may also be some potential on Sat/D5 to Sun/D6 over parts of the Mid Atlantic as cooling aloft with an upper trough moves across the area. Timing of this trough will be critical, as will the movement of the associated cold front.
..Jewell.. 08/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, August 25
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, August 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, August 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, August 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, August 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, August 25 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180824 SPC AC 180824
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
For the Fri/D4 to Tue/D8 period, an upper ridge is forecast to expand from the Four Corners states into the Southern Plains, with northwest flow aloft over the Northern Plains shifting east across Midwest and into the Northeast.
On Fri/D4, scattered storms may occur across the Central Plains and Cornbelt, with areas of moisture and instability beneath the 30-40 kt northwest flow regime favor scattered hail or strong wind gusts. Predictability is low due to the likelihood of ongoing storms or convective systems early in the day, which may affect air mass quality and effective boundary positioning. However, the NE/KS/IA/MO region appears to be the most likely area for an eventual risk area.
Also on Fri/D4, storms are again expected over parts of the Mid Atlantic to Carolinas, where 25 kt southwest flow in the midlevels and a surface trough will support scattered storm clusters producing locally damaging gusts. Areas of ongoing storms or outflows from the previous day's convection may have an impact here as well as far as the most favorable zones for additional severe storms.
There may also be some potential on Sat/D5 to Sun/D6 over parts of the Mid Atlantic as cooling aloft with an upper trough moves across the area. Timing of this trough will be critical, as will the movement of the associated cold front.
..Jewell.. 08/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, August 18
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Wednesday, August 19
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Thursday, August 20
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Friday, August 21
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, August 22
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, August 23
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, August 24
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, August 25
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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