Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, January 5
Outlook Summary
The risk for thunderstorms will remain minimal across the U.S. today through tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 050500
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 PM CST Sun Jan 04 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
The risk for thunderstorms will remain minimal across the U.S. today through tonight.
Discussion
Models indicate that mid-level flow is trending more zonal across the northern mid-latitudes, from the Pacific to the Atlantic. Across the southern mid- into subtropical latitudes, it appears likely to remain more amplified through this period, with one notable short wave trough forecast to continue digging across the eastern Pacific. Downstream, a lower amplitude short wave trough emerging from the Intermountain West may contribute to further suppression of mid-level ridging as far south as the central Great Plains into middle Mississippi Valley later today through tonight. However, mid-level ridging is likely to be maintained across much of the Gulf Basin and adjacent Gulf Coast, to the north of an increasingly prominent mid-level high forming near the Yucatan Peninsula. Farther east, broad mid-level troughing is forecast to shift a bit further offshore of the south Atlantic Seaboard.
Beneath this regime, modest surface cyclogenesis may commence across the central Great Plains into Midwest. This may be accompanied by some low-level moistening off a Gulf boundary layer only slowly modifying in the wake of recent cooling and/or drying. However, forecast soundings indicate that this moisture return will be capped by pronounced warm and dry layers in the lower through mid-troposphere.
California
Stronger mid-level cooling and forcing for ascent downstream of the digging offshore short wave, which could potentially become supportive of thermodynamic profiles conducive to thunderstorms, may approach the central California coast this morning before slowly shifting southward near, but mostly offshore of coastal areas through the remainder of the period.
Great Basin into Rockies
Guidance continues to suggest that mid-level cooling and forcing for ascent (associated with a short wave perturbation now progressing northeast and east of the southern Sierra Nevada) could contribute to the evolution of thermodynamic profiles at least marginally conducive to convection capable of producing lightning, across the mountains of north central/northeastern Utah this morning into northwestern Colorado/adjacent southern Wyoming later today.
Upper Midwest
Downstream of the short wave emerging from the Great Basin, forecast soundings indicate that steepening lapse rates associated with mid-level cooling and forcing for ascent, coupled with mid-level moisture return, may support a corridor of destabilization rooted generally around the 700 mb layer. It might not be entirely out of the question that this could support weak convection capable of producing lightning across the southern Minnesota through southern Wisconsin vicinity (and adjacent portions of northern Illinois/Iowa) tonight. However, probabilities for this still appear below the minimum 10 percent threshold for a categorical thunder area.
..Kerr.. 01/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Tuesday, January 6
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorm potential is negligible on Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 050634
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CST Mon Jan 05 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorm potential is negligible on Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Discussion
Conditions may remain too dry/stable for lightning-producing convection across the CONUS through the period. A couple areas of very limited potential remain evident. One across the southern Great Lakes where minimal elevated buoyancy might support a brief thunderstorm on Tuesday morning within a mixed-phase precipitation swath attendant to a low-amplitude shortwave impulse. Another area will be over northwest WA where scant buoyancy may develop towards 12Z Wednesday. Large-scale ascent with an upstream shortwave trough should strengthen mainly later Wednesday morning, suggesting that thunder probabilities for D2 appear to be below 10 percent.
..Grams.. 01/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Wednesday, January 7
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, January 7 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, January 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, January 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, January 10 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, January 11 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040931 SPC AC 040931
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CST Sun Jan 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
A low-latitude closed low west of Baja CA at 12Z Wednesday should evolve back into an open wave, aided by the development of a large-scale trough becoming established over the West. EC-AIFS and AIGFS remain the preferred guidance for a more probable slower ejection of the low-latitude wave onto the southern Great Plains through Thursday. At least isolated severe potential seems plausible to the east-southeast of a southern High Plains lee cyclone as a modifying warm-moist sector advects north from the western Gulf. But yesterday's NCAR ECENS-based ML guidance remains below 5 percent for Thursday, while the latest GEFS-based SPC-CSU and NSSL ML guidance have trended lower to only 5 percent peak areas.
D6/Friday still appears to have the best relative severe potential, despite the pair of GEFS-based ML guidance trending lower and in areal extent of 5 percent peak probs. Neither of these have any appreciable overlap with the preferred ECENS-based 5 percent areas from NCAR. In any case, an amplified upper trough appears likely to shift from around the Rockies to the Great Plains. Most EC-AIFS ENS members now support central states cyclogenesis. But predictability remains low regarding the spatiotemporal details and amplitude of cyclogenesis, which is likely related to the handling of shortwave impulses embedded within the broader trough. An area-of-interest for a future 15 percent severe highlight roughly includes the Lower MS to TN Valleys and Deep South.
..Grams.. 01/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, January 8
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, January 7 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, January 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, January 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, January 10 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, January 11 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040931 SPC AC 040931
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CST Sun Jan 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
A low-latitude closed low west of Baja CA at 12Z Wednesday should evolve back into an open wave, aided by the development of a large-scale trough becoming established over the West. EC-AIFS and AIGFS remain the preferred guidance for a more probable slower ejection of the low-latitude wave onto the southern Great Plains through Thursday. At least isolated severe potential seems plausible to the east-southeast of a southern High Plains lee cyclone as a modifying warm-moist sector advects north from the western Gulf. But yesterday's NCAR ECENS-based ML guidance remains below 5 percent for Thursday, while the latest GEFS-based SPC-CSU and NSSL ML guidance have trended lower to only 5 percent peak areas.
D6/Friday still appears to have the best relative severe potential, despite the pair of GEFS-based ML guidance trending lower and in areal extent of 5 percent peak probs. Neither of these have any appreciable overlap with the preferred ECENS-based 5 percent areas from NCAR. In any case, an amplified upper trough appears likely to shift from around the Rockies to the Great Plains. Most EC-AIFS ENS members now support central states cyclogenesis. But predictability remains low regarding the spatiotemporal details and amplitude of cyclogenesis, which is likely related to the handling of shortwave impulses embedded within the broader trough. An area-of-interest for a future 15 percent severe highlight roughly includes the Lower MS to TN Valleys and Deep South.
..Grams.. 01/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, January 9
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, January 7 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, January 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, January 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, January 10 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, January 11 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040931 SPC AC 040931
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CST Sun Jan 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
A low-latitude closed low west of Baja CA at 12Z Wednesday should evolve back into an open wave, aided by the development of a large-scale trough becoming established over the West. EC-AIFS and AIGFS remain the preferred guidance for a more probable slower ejection of the low-latitude wave onto the southern Great Plains through Thursday. At least isolated severe potential seems plausible to the east-southeast of a southern High Plains lee cyclone as a modifying warm-moist sector advects north from the western Gulf. But yesterday's NCAR ECENS-based ML guidance remains below 5 percent for Thursday, while the latest GEFS-based SPC-CSU and NSSL ML guidance have trended lower to only 5 percent peak areas.
D6/Friday still appears to have the best relative severe potential, despite the pair of GEFS-based ML guidance trending lower and in areal extent of 5 percent peak probs. Neither of these have any appreciable overlap with the preferred ECENS-based 5 percent areas from NCAR. In any case, an amplified upper trough appears likely to shift from around the Rockies to the Great Plains. Most EC-AIFS ENS members now support central states cyclogenesis. But predictability remains low regarding the spatiotemporal details and amplitude of cyclogenesis, which is likely related to the handling of shortwave impulses embedded within the broader trough. An area-of-interest for a future 15 percent severe highlight roughly includes the Lower MS to TN Valleys and Deep South.
..Grams.. 01/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, January 10
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, January 7 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, January 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, January 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, January 10 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, January 11 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040931 SPC AC 040931
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CST Sun Jan 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
A low-latitude closed low west of Baja CA at 12Z Wednesday should evolve back into an open wave, aided by the development of a large-scale trough becoming established over the West. EC-AIFS and AIGFS remain the preferred guidance for a more probable slower ejection of the low-latitude wave onto the southern Great Plains through Thursday. At least isolated severe potential seems plausible to the east-southeast of a southern High Plains lee cyclone as a modifying warm-moist sector advects north from the western Gulf. But yesterday's NCAR ECENS-based ML guidance remains below 5 percent for Thursday, while the latest GEFS-based SPC-CSU and NSSL ML guidance have trended lower to only 5 percent peak areas.
D6/Friday still appears to have the best relative severe potential, despite the pair of GEFS-based ML guidance trending lower and in areal extent of 5 percent peak probs. Neither of these have any appreciable overlap with the preferred ECENS-based 5 percent areas from NCAR. In any case, an amplified upper trough appears likely to shift from around the Rockies to the Great Plains. Most EC-AIFS ENS members now support central states cyclogenesis. But predictability remains low regarding the spatiotemporal details and amplitude of cyclogenesis, which is likely related to the handling of shortwave impulses embedded within the broader trough. An area-of-interest for a future 15 percent severe highlight roughly includes the Lower MS to TN Valleys and Deep South.
..Grams.. 01/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, January 11
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, January 7 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, January 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, January 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, January 10 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, January 11 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040931 SPC AC 040931
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CST Sun Jan 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
A low-latitude closed low west of Baja CA at 12Z Wednesday should evolve back into an open wave, aided by the development of a large-scale trough becoming established over the West. EC-AIFS and AIGFS remain the preferred guidance for a more probable slower ejection of the low-latitude wave onto the southern Great Plains through Thursday. At least isolated severe potential seems plausible to the east-southeast of a southern High Plains lee cyclone as a modifying warm-moist sector advects north from the western Gulf. But yesterday's NCAR ECENS-based ML guidance remains below 5 percent for Thursday, while the latest GEFS-based SPC-CSU and NSSL ML guidance have trended lower to only 5 percent peak areas.
D6/Friday still appears to have the best relative severe potential, despite the pair of GEFS-based ML guidance trending lower and in areal extent of 5 percent peak probs. Neither of these have any appreciable overlap with the preferred ECENS-based 5 percent areas from NCAR. In any case, an amplified upper trough appears likely to shift from around the Rockies to the Great Plains. Most EC-AIFS ENS members now support central states cyclogenesis. But predictability remains low regarding the spatiotemporal details and amplitude of cyclogenesis, which is likely related to the handling of shortwave impulses embedded within the broader trough. An area-of-interest for a future 15 percent severe highlight roughly includes the Lower MS to TN Valleys and Deep South.
..Grams.. 01/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, January 5
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, January 6
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Wednesday, January 7
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, January 8
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, January 9
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, January 10
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, January 11
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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