Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, September 24
Outlook Summary
A couple of marginally severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon into the early evening across parts of the southern High Plains.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 241614
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026
Valid 241630Z - 251200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE…WESTERN OKLAHOMA…AND WESTERN KANSAS
### SUMMARY
A couple of marginally severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon into the early evening across parts of the southern High Plains.
TX Panhandle into northwest OK and southwest KS
An extensive plume of mid to upper level moisture currently extends from southern High Plains through central Plains into the eastern Dakotas and MN, evidenced by widespread cloudiness and embedded showers and isolated thunderstorms. This plume is supported by moderate southwesterly flow aloft between the upper ridging centered over the Middle/Upper TX coast and lower heights associated with an amplifying upper trough approaching the coastal Pacific Northwest.
Recent surface analysis shows a corridor of greater low-level moisture (characterized by mid to upper 60s dewpoints) extending from the TX Low Rolling Plains through the eastern TX and OK Panhandles into far southwest KS. Much of this corridor of greater low-level moisture is just east of the cloudiness (and cooler surface temperatures) associated with the mid/upper moisture plume. This region should continue to heat, with afternoon temperatures reaching the mid to upper 80s. Lapse rates are poor, but the warm temperatures and ample low-level moisture will still support MLCAPE from 1500 to 2000 J/kg. This buoyancy combined with low-level convergence (either on outflow from the ongoing showers or as a result of differential heating) will support isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Vertical shear will be weak across much of the region, and a largely disorganized storm mode is anticipated. However, a few water-loaded downbursts are possible with the strongest cells.
Slightly stronger large-scale forcing for ascent and vertical shear is expected into KS as a weak convectively augmented vorticity maximum moves trough. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible here as well, although weaker buoyancy should limit overall intensity. Even so, a couple of weak supercells capable of isolated hail and/or damaging gusts may occur.
..Mosier/Chalmers.. 09/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Friday, September 25
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected Friday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 241728
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected Friday.
Synopsis
A relatively benign mid-level flow pattern is forecast across much of the central US as a stacked upper low deepens off the east coast and a Pacific trough moves from WA/OR into the northern Rockies and southern Canada. Weak mid-level ridging will persist over the southern third of the CONUS as a broad and loosely organized extension of the Pacific trough moves northeastward over the Rockies and central High Plains. Mid-level flow aloft is forecast to remain weak over much of the CONUS.
A surface low will quickly deepen over the western Atlantic under the upper low supporting broad and cool low-level offshore flow for much of the East. To the west, the limited upper-level forcing will garner only modest ascent for surface lee troughing across the central and southern High Plains where an unseasonably moist air mass associated with remnant tropical/monsoon moisture will exist. Given PWATS of 1.5-2”, filtered diurnal heating should allow for weak destabilization (MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg) Friday afternoon. Despite likely widespread shower and thunderstorm activity from the central Plains to the Southwest, lingering cloud cover, poor mid-level lapse rates, modest deep-layer vertical shear (20-30 kt) suggest little potential for organized storms. Episodic hail or damaging gusts cannot be ruled out from eastern NM into the TX Panhandle and far western OK where heating is likely to be more robust on the edge of the deeper tropospheric moisture. However, forecast confidence in organized severe storms remains low, and 5% probabilities will be withheld.
..Lyons.. 09/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Saturday, September 26
Outlook Summary
Isolated hail and damaging winds may accompany a few strong to severe thunderstorms across portions of the central and southern Plains Saturday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 241912
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE…ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
### SUMMARY
Isolated hail and damaging winds may accompany a few strong to severe thunderstorms across portions of the central and southern Plains Saturday.
Synopsis
An upper low over the eastern US will remain in place as mid-level flow trends more zonal this weekend. Shortwave ridging over the western US should temporarily intensify ahead of a series of low-amplitude Pacific troughs approaching the coast. A subtle shortwave perturbation will move from the Rockies and across the central US with mid-level flow gradually turning northwesterly in its wake. Surface lee troughing and a weak cyclone should deepen over the central and southern High Plains amidst a moist monsoon/tropical air mass. Scattered thunderstorms with at least isolated severe potential are expected.
Central and southern Plains
Ahead of the weak low and lee trough, southerly low-level flow will aid in maintaining a moist air mass across much of TX/OK and KS. Diurnal heating and subtle surface confluence ahead of the trough should allow for weak to moderate destabilization through the afternoon. Two areas of thunderstorm initiation appear possible, along and ahead of the surface low in KS where mid-level flow is stronger (deep-layer shear of 30+ kt), and farther southwest along the lee trough into western OK and the east/southeastern TX Panhandle. Lingering clouds and showers in eastern KS cast some uncertainty on destabilization and the presence of surface-based storms farther north. Still, isolated hail would be possible with any storms near the surface low.
Despite somewhat weak flow aloft farther southwest, veering with height should yield 20-30 kts of effective bulk shear with modestly curved and elongated hodographs. Peak afternoon buoyancy of 1500-2000 J/kg along and east of the lee trough with temperatures in the 80s and upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints will be capable of supporting strong updrafts. As such, a few organized multicells and transient supercells may develop and intensify along a narrow corridor through the afternoon. Modestly steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient buoyancy may support an isolated severe wind/hail threat with the stronger/organized storms.
..Lyons.. 09/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Sunday, September 27
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, September 27 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, September 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, September 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, September 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, October 1 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240826 SPC AC 240826
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level cutoff low will meander along the East Coast and will gradually depart the region early next week as a mid-level trough amplifies over the Rockies and impinges on the central U.S. Medium range guidance consensus varies in the morphology of the upper trough. The 00Z GFS features a rapidly progressing upper wave over the Plains to the OH Valley Days 5-7 (Monday-Wednesday), while the 00Z Euro shows a mid-level trough evolving into a cut-off low that meanders over the Plains through the week. Both scenarios result in an appreciably strong surface low developing over the central Plains sometime mid next week, accompanied by near 70 F surface dewpoints and a buoyancy/vertical shear overlap supportive of a severe threat. However, too much variability in guidance precludes the delineation of severe probabilities this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 09/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, September 28
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, September 27 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, September 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, September 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, September 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, October 1 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240826 SPC AC 240826
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level cutoff low will meander along the East Coast and will gradually depart the region early next week as a mid-level trough amplifies over the Rockies and impinges on the central U.S. Medium range guidance consensus varies in the morphology of the upper trough. The 00Z GFS features a rapidly progressing upper wave over the Plains to the OH Valley Days 5-7 (Monday-Wednesday), while the 00Z Euro shows a mid-level trough evolving into a cut-off low that meanders over the Plains through the week. Both scenarios result in an appreciably strong surface low developing over the central Plains sometime mid next week, accompanied by near 70 F surface dewpoints and a buoyancy/vertical shear overlap supportive of a severe threat. However, too much variability in guidance precludes the delineation of severe probabilities this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 09/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, September 29
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, September 27 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, September 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, September 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, September 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, October 1 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240826 SPC AC 240826
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level cutoff low will meander along the East Coast and will gradually depart the region early next week as a mid-level trough amplifies over the Rockies and impinges on the central U.S. Medium range guidance consensus varies in the morphology of the upper trough. The 00Z GFS features a rapidly progressing upper wave over the Plains to the OH Valley Days 5-7 (Monday-Wednesday), while the 00Z Euro shows a mid-level trough evolving into a cut-off low that meanders over the Plains through the week. Both scenarios result in an appreciably strong surface low developing over the central Plains sometime mid next week, accompanied by near 70 F surface dewpoints and a buoyancy/vertical shear overlap supportive of a severe threat. However, too much variability in guidance precludes the delineation of severe probabilities this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 09/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, September 30
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, September 27 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, September 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, September 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, September 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, October 1 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240826 SPC AC 240826
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level cutoff low will meander along the East Coast and will gradually depart the region early next week as a mid-level trough amplifies over the Rockies and impinges on the central U.S. Medium range guidance consensus varies in the morphology of the upper trough. The 00Z GFS features a rapidly progressing upper wave over the Plains to the OH Valley Days 5-7 (Monday-Wednesday), while the 00Z Euro shows a mid-level trough evolving into a cut-off low that meanders over the Plains through the week. Both scenarios result in an appreciably strong surface low developing over the central Plains sometime mid next week, accompanied by near 70 F surface dewpoints and a buoyancy/vertical shear overlap supportive of a severe threat. However, too much variability in guidance precludes the delineation of severe probabilities this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 09/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, October 1
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, September 27 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, September 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, September 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, September 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, October 1 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240826 SPC AC 240826
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level cutoff low will meander along the East Coast and will gradually depart the region early next week as a mid-level trough amplifies over the Rockies and impinges on the central U.S. Medium range guidance consensus varies in the morphology of the upper trough. The 00Z GFS features a rapidly progressing upper wave over the Plains to the OH Valley Days 5-7 (Monday-Wednesday), while the 00Z Euro shows a mid-level trough evolving into a cut-off low that meanders over the Plains through the week. Both scenarios result in an appreciably strong surface low developing over the central Plains sometime mid next week, accompanied by near 70 F surface dewpoints and a buoyancy/vertical shear overlap supportive of a severe threat. However, too much variability in guidance precludes the delineation of severe probabilities this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 09/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, September 24
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Friday, September 25
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Saturday, September 26
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Sunday, September 27
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, September 28
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, September 29
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, September 30
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, October 1
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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