Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, December 27
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 271616
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025
Valid 271630Z - 281200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States.
Synopsis and Discussion
A large-scale upper trough with multiple embedded perturbations will move eastward from the western CONUS across much of the Plains through the period. While cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this upper trough, meager low-level moisture and cool surface temperatures should generally limit instability and the potential for lightning with any convective showers that can develop this afternoon across the Great Basin/Rockies.
Low-level moisture will gradually return northward through tonight across the lower/mid MS Valley and lower OH Valley ahead of a strong cold front and deepening surface low over the central Plains and mid MO Valley. Increasing warm/moist advection associated with a low-level jet should eventually support weak MUCAPE and isolated thunderstorm potential across parts of eastern KS into MO and central IL late tonight/early Sunday morning. With MUCAPE forecast to remain generally less than 750 J/kg, the potential for severe hail with elevated convection appears low even though deep-layer shear will be strong.
..Gleason/Wendt.. 12/27/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Sunday, December 28
Outlook Summary
Strong thunderstorms may develop across parts of the middle Mississippi Valley Sunday afternoon, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather while spreading into the lower Ohio Valley through Sunday evening. This may include potential for a tornado or two across parts of central Illinois into north central Indiana. Otherwise, potentially damaging wind gusts appear the primary severe threat.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 271754
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI…ADJACENT NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE…CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS…INDIANA…WESTERN OHIO AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN…WESTERN AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY
CORRECTED FOR TYPOS
SUMMARY
Strong thunderstorms may develop across parts of the middle Mississippi Valley Sunday afternoon, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather while spreading into the lower Ohio Valley through Sunday evening. This may include potential for a tornado or two across parts of central Illinois into north central Indiana. Otherwise, potentially damaging wind gusts appear the primary severe threat.
Discussion
Much of the interior U.S. remains anomalously warm, as westerlies across the Pacific into western North America undergo amplification. Later today through Sunday, models indicate that this will include mid/upper ridging building inland across British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest, through the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies and adjacent Prairies/northern Great Plains. Downstream, it appears that a pair of short wave troughs will come in phase while migrating across and east of the Rockies, and provide support for strong cyclogenesis. By late Sunday night, guidance generally indicates that the center of a deep, occluding surface low will reach the Lake Huron/Georgian Bay vicinity, with a strong trailing cold front advancing through the western slopes of the Appalachians and northwestern Gulf/Gulf coast region.
Middle Mississippi/Ohio Valley
There remains notable spread within/among the various model output concerning the evolution of the developing surface cyclone across the lower Missouri Valley through Great Lakes region, including timing of periods of more rapid deepening Sunday through Sunday night. This could substantially impact the location, timing and extent of any associated thunderstorm development and accompanying severe weather potential.
In general, it does appear that the pre-frontal warm sector will be relatively moist, with surface dew points near/above 60F likely as far north as a developing warm front, east of the deepening surface low, across parts of middle Mississippi Valley into southern Great Lakes region by Sunday afternoon. Convection allowing guidance and other model output suggest that forcing for ascent along the warm front, near and east of the low, may be the focus for highest thunderstorm probabilities through the period. However, based on forecast soundings, relatively warm mid-level temperatures will tend to minimize CAPE, and the risk for severe hail and wind with convection rooted above the cool/stable boundary layer appears negligible.
Relatively warm air aloft appears likely to be problematic within the surface warm sector as well, particularly given forecast weaker mid/upper forcing for ascent. However, there does appear a consensus in model output that a corridor of weak pre-cold frontal boundary-layer destabilization could develop by early Sunday afternoon across parts of south central/east central Missouri into central Illinois. Coincident with strengthening deep-layer wind fields/shear and perhaps a period of glancing mid/upper support for upward vertical motion, there may be a window of opportunity for strong thunderstorm development, which could spread just ahead of the front into the Ohio Valley before diminishing Sunday evening.
Based on forecast soundings, low-level hodographs to the east-southeast of the deepening cyclone may become conducive to low-topped supercells posing the risk for a tornado or two across parts of central Illinois into north central Indiana late Sunday afternoon. Otherwise, low-level hodographs, trending more linear along the cold front to the southwest, will generally support a narrow line of convection with potential mix down 40-50 kt mean flow in the lowest 3 to 6 km.
Once thunderstorm development wanes, the potential for convectively enhanced gusts will diminish, but strong wind gusts associated with the cold frontal passage are likely through much of the remainder of the Ohio and Mississippi Valleys.
..Kerr.. 12/27/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Monday, December 29
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday or Monday night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 270745
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday or Monday night.
Discussion
A deep surface cyclone over Lake Huron at 12Z Monday should gradually fill as it occludes and tracks into southern QC. Secondary cyclogenesis should occur over ME into the Canadian Maritimes. The surface warm-moist sector will be confined to the Southeast, up to near the VA Tidewater, ahead of a progressive cold front. Guidance is consistent with negligible instability along/ahead of the front, which should clear all but the FL Peninsula by late afternoon and then shift entirely offshore Monday night. Shallow convection is possible along portions of the front, with thunderstorm probabilities appearing to be less than 10 percent.
..Grams.. 12/27/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Tuesday, December 30
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, December 30 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, December 31 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, January 1 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, January 2 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, January 3 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270842 SPC AC 270842
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025
Valid 301200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
A quiescent pattern is expected mid-week, in the wake of a D2-3 continental air mass intrusion across much of the Gulf. Return flow and air mass modification will ensue late week into next weekend. Run-to-run predictability remains low by this time frame, but some models suggest a southern-stream shortwave trough could interact with this moistening plume. This may support non-negligible severe potential over the western Gulf States towards D8. Even this scenario appears to be of sufficiently marginal amplitude, outside of a singular 00Z CMC outlier, to likely yield low severe probabilities through next Saturday. GEFS-based SPC-CSU and NSSL ML guidance are in alignment with sub-5 percent severe probs on D8.
..Grams.. 12/27/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, December 31
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, December 30 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, December 31 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, January 1 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, January 2 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, January 3 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270842 SPC AC 270842
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025
Valid 301200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
A quiescent pattern is expected mid-week, in the wake of a D2-3 continental air mass intrusion across much of the Gulf. Return flow and air mass modification will ensue late week into next weekend. Run-to-run predictability remains low by this time frame, but some models suggest a southern-stream shortwave trough could interact with this moistening plume. This may support non-negligible severe potential over the western Gulf States towards D8. Even this scenario appears to be of sufficiently marginal amplitude, outside of a singular 00Z CMC outlier, to likely yield low severe probabilities through next Saturday. GEFS-based SPC-CSU and NSSL ML guidance are in alignment with sub-5 percent severe probs on D8.
..Grams.. 12/27/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, January 1
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, December 30 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, December 31 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, January 1 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, January 2 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, January 3 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270842 SPC AC 270842
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025
Valid 301200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
A quiescent pattern is expected mid-week, in the wake of a D2-3 continental air mass intrusion across much of the Gulf. Return flow and air mass modification will ensue late week into next weekend. Run-to-run predictability remains low by this time frame, but some models suggest a southern-stream shortwave trough could interact with this moistening plume. This may support non-negligible severe potential over the western Gulf States towards D8. Even this scenario appears to be of sufficiently marginal amplitude, outside of a singular 00Z CMC outlier, to likely yield low severe probabilities through next Saturday. GEFS-based SPC-CSU and NSSL ML guidance are in alignment with sub-5 percent severe probs on D8.
..Grams.. 12/27/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, January 2
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, December 30 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, December 31 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, January 1 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, January 2 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, January 3 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270842 SPC AC 270842
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025
Valid 301200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
A quiescent pattern is expected mid-week, in the wake of a D2-3 continental air mass intrusion across much of the Gulf. Return flow and air mass modification will ensue late week into next weekend. Run-to-run predictability remains low by this time frame, but some models suggest a southern-stream shortwave trough could interact with this moistening plume. This may support non-negligible severe potential over the western Gulf States towards D8. Even this scenario appears to be of sufficiently marginal amplitude, outside of a singular 00Z CMC outlier, to likely yield low severe probabilities through next Saturday. GEFS-based SPC-CSU and NSSL ML guidance are in alignment with sub-5 percent severe probs on D8.
..Grams.. 12/27/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, January 3
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, December 30 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, December 31 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, January 1 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, January 2 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, January 3 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270842 SPC AC 270842
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025
Valid 301200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
A quiescent pattern is expected mid-week, in the wake of a D2-3 continental air mass intrusion across much of the Gulf. Return flow and air mass modification will ensue late week into next weekend. Run-to-run predictability remains low by this time frame, but some models suggest a southern-stream shortwave trough could interact with this moistening plume. This may support non-negligible severe potential over the western Gulf States towards D8. Even this scenario appears to be of sufficiently marginal amplitude, outside of a singular 00Z CMC outlier, to likely yield low severe probabilities through next Saturday. GEFS-based SPC-CSU and NSSL ML guidance are in alignment with sub-5 percent severe probs on D8.
..Grams.. 12/27/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, December 27
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Sunday, December 28
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Monday, December 29
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Tuesday, December 30
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, December 31
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, January 1
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, January 2
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, January 3
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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