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Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Thursday, July 9
Friday, July 10
Saturday, July 11
Sunday, July 12
Monday, July 13
Tuesday, July 14
Wednesday, July 15
Thursday, July 16

Outlook for Thursday, July 9

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern Plains. Severe wind gusts may also occur in parts of the Ozarks, mid Mississippi Valley, lower Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and Arizona.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 15%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 090555

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS…AND FROM THE OZARKS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern Plains. Severe wind gusts may also occur in parts of the Ozarks, mid Mississippi Valley, lower Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and Arizona.

Central and Northern Plains

A mid-level shortwave trough will move through the central and northern Plains today. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place from the Dakotas southward into Nebraska, where surface dewpoints will mostly be in the 60s F. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability will develop across much of the region. Along and near the instability axis, MLCAPE is forecast to increase into the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range. As instability peaks late this afternoon, low-level convergence will likely become maximized along a surface trough from the western Dakotas southward into eastern Colorado. This will aid convective initiation, with several clusters developing and moving eastward across the central and northern High Plains. In the vicinity of the instability axis, moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rate will support a threat for severe wind gusts and isolated large hail. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible across parts of central and northern North Dakota where instability and deep-layer shear will be favorable for supercells.

Further south into parts of western and central Kansas, an east-to-west axis of low-level moisture will be in place. Some model forecasts suggest that an organized line of storms will develop and move eastward along this axis during the early to mid evening. Severe wind gusts will be possible with this line of storms.

Ozarks/Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valley

A very moist airmass will be in place today from the Ozarks eastward into the lower Ohio Valley, where surface dewpoints will be in the mid to upper 70s F. In response to surface heating, moderate to strong instability is expected to develop by afternoon across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley. Some model solutions have an axis of low-level convergence located from central Missouri eastward to southern Indiana, suggesting that convective coverage could be maximized along this corridor. The instability, along with steep low to mid-level lapse rates will be favorable for severe wind gusts with any line segment that can become organized.

Mid-Atlantic

A mid-level shortwave trough will move through the southern Appalachians today and approach the Mid-Atlantic. Ahead of this feature, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place with surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s F. This will contribute to a pocket of moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Thunderstorms that develop in the higher terrain of the central Appalachians will move eastward into the Mid-Atlantic during the late afternoon and early evening. Forecast deep-layer shear appears sufficient to support a severe threat. The instability and steep low-level lapse rates will contribute to a potential for severe wind gusts with the stronger multicells.

Southeast Arizona

An axis of instability is forecast to develop today across southeast Arizona. Near this axis, low-level convergence will become maximized during the afternoon, which will result in isolated to scattered convective initiation. Storms that form near the instability axis as low-level lapse rates peak in the late afternoon could produce isolated severe wind gusts.

..Broyles/Moore.. 07/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Friday, July 10

Outlook Summary

Clusters of thunderstorms, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts and some hail, may evolve in a corridor across parts of the south central Great Plains into the Tennessee Valley Friday afternoon and evening.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind 5%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 090456

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO ADJACENT CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AND OZARK PLATEAU INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Clusters of thunderstorms, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts and some hail, may evolve in a corridor across parts of the south central Great Plains into the Tennessee Valley Friday afternoon and evening.

Discussion

Latest model output indicates little general change from prior runs. To the southeast of a vigorous short wave trough digging offshore of the southern British Columbia coast, it appears that an increasingly prominent mid/upper-level high will begin to form across portions of the Colorado Valley/Plateau through southern Rockies vicinity late Friday through Friday night. Ridging to the north of the high is also forecast to continue building along an axis across the northern U.S. Great Plains into eastern Canadian Prairies, while downstream positively tilted larger-scale troughing gradually shifts into and across the northern Atlantic Seaboard.

The evolution of remnant weak troughing across the central Great Plains into lower Missouri Valley remains much more unclear, based on continuing varied model solutions However, a belt of westerlies to its south may remain convectively augmented in lower/mid-levels, though perhaps weaker than Thursday.

The potential for at least moderate destabilization remains most certain along the southern periphery of this regime, aided by a corridor of steeper lower through mid-tropospheric lapse rates associated with elevated mixed-layer air (probably based closer to 850 mb than 700 mb), above a seasonably moist boundary-layer. The latitude at which this will become focused remains a bit uncertain, and by late Friday afternoon will largely depend on where outflow from prior convection ends up and the extent to which it modifies. However, corridors of stronger differential heating and developing low-level warm advection might contribute to an environment conducive to the evolution of at least small organizing clusters with potential to produce severe wind and hail across eastern portions of the central Great Plains into the Tennessee Valley through Friday evening.

In the wake of the eastward migrating weak mid-level trough, convection-allowing guidance suggests that easterly low-level flow into portions of the Front Range, Sangre de Cristo Mountains and Raton Mesa/ridge vicinity will be sufficiently moist and unstable, in the presence of steep lapse rates, to support scattered strong thunderstorm development. Some of these may become capable of producing severe hail and wind.

..Kerr.. 07/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Saturday, July 11

Outlook Summary

Strong thunderstorms with potential to produce a few damaging wind gusts are possible in a corridor across the south central Great Plains through Mid South and Tennessee Valley Saturday afternoon and evening.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 090715

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS THROUGH THE MID SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Strong thunderstorms with potential to produce a few damaging wind gusts are possible in a corridor across the south central Great Plains through Mid South and Tennessee Valley Saturday afternoon and evening.

Discussion

Large-scale mid/upper ridging is forecast to continue building across much of interior North America through this period, with the strong core of the ridge expanding northeastward and encompassing much of the Four Corners states through middle Missouri Valley by late Saturday night. While one notable short wave trough is forced inland across the British Columbia coast, increasingly split downstream troughing is forecast to progress toward the northwestern Atlantic, and offshore of the north Atlantic Seaboard. A lingering mid-level shear axis, trailing to the west of the latter troughing, may slowly continue to shift south of the Mid Atlantic and lower Ohio/Missouri Valleys through the period.

In general, the risk for organized severe convection appears low Saturday through Saturday night, or at least dependent on mesoscale perturbations with low predictability at this time frame. However, there does appear a general consensus among model output that lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates may remain steep enough, above a seasonably moist boundary layer, to contribute to moderate CAPE (on the order of 1500-2000+ J/kg) in advance of the southward advancing shear axis. By late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening, this may focus strong thunderstorm development in a corridor from the south central Great Plains into the Tennessee Valley. Some of this activity may evolve into small clusters with potential to produce strong to locally severe surface gusts.

..Kerr.. 07/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Sunday, July 12

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Sunday, July 12 potential too low
Day 5 Monday, July 13 predictability too low
Day 6 Tuesday, July 14 predictability too low
Day 7 Wednesday, July 15 predictability too low
Day 8 Thursday, July 16 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090900 SPC AC 090900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range models continue to indicate that the center of strong mid-level ridging building northeast of the Four Corners states will shift across the middle Missouri Valley early next week, where it may reach peak intensity by about Tuesday, before becoming suppressed. Even as this commences, mid-level ridging in the westerlies may be maintained near and north/northeast of the international border, from the Great Plains through the Great Lakes, while large-scale downstream troughing amplifies southeastward across the Northeast.

Associated with this evolution, a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air still appears likely to advect on the southern fringe of a belt of strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of this ridging. As the nose of the warmer air overspreads the Great Lakes region early next week, forcing for ascent associated with warm advection could begin supporting organizing thunderstorm clusters potentially impacting portions of New England, and/or the lower Great Lakes through Mid Atlantic.

As guidance suggests that the westerlies will initially remain split downstream of the ridge, and a potentially notable short wave trough (and associated cold front) migrating around its periphery and eventually suppressing it, it remains unclear how potential frontal and pre-frontal convection will pan out on any particular day. Due to both synoptic and sub-synoptic predictability issues, severe probabilities remain at less than 15 percent in the day 6-8 time frame. However, this probably will change in later outlooks closer to this time period, when the potential for introducing unduly large forecast false alarm decreases.

..Kerr.. 07/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, July 13

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Sunday, July 12 potential too low
Day 5 Monday, July 13 predictability too low
Day 6 Tuesday, July 14 predictability too low
Day 7 Wednesday, July 15 predictability too low
Day 8 Thursday, July 16 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090900 SPC AC 090900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range models continue to indicate that the center of strong mid-level ridging building northeast of the Four Corners states will shift across the middle Missouri Valley early next week, where it may reach peak intensity by about Tuesday, before becoming suppressed. Even as this commences, mid-level ridging in the westerlies may be maintained near and north/northeast of the international border, from the Great Plains through the Great Lakes, while large-scale downstream troughing amplifies southeastward across the Northeast.

Associated with this evolution, a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air still appears likely to advect on the southern fringe of a belt of strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of this ridging. As the nose of the warmer air overspreads the Great Lakes region early next week, forcing for ascent associated with warm advection could begin supporting organizing thunderstorm clusters potentially impacting portions of New England, and/or the lower Great Lakes through Mid Atlantic.

As guidance suggests that the westerlies will initially remain split downstream of the ridge, and a potentially notable short wave trough (and associated cold front) migrating around its periphery and eventually suppressing it, it remains unclear how potential frontal and pre-frontal convection will pan out on any particular day. Due to both synoptic and sub-synoptic predictability issues, severe probabilities remain at less than 15 percent in the day 6-8 time frame. However, this probably will change in later outlooks closer to this time period, when the potential for introducing unduly large forecast false alarm decreases.

..Kerr.. 07/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, July 14

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Sunday, July 12 potential too low
Day 5 Monday, July 13 predictability too low
Day 6 Tuesday, July 14 predictability too low
Day 7 Wednesday, July 15 predictability too low
Day 8 Thursday, July 16 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090900 SPC AC 090900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range models continue to indicate that the center of strong mid-level ridging building northeast of the Four Corners states will shift across the middle Missouri Valley early next week, where it may reach peak intensity by about Tuesday, before becoming suppressed. Even as this commences, mid-level ridging in the westerlies may be maintained near and north/northeast of the international border, from the Great Plains through the Great Lakes, while large-scale downstream troughing amplifies southeastward across the Northeast.

Associated with this evolution, a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air still appears likely to advect on the southern fringe of a belt of strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of this ridging. As the nose of the warmer air overspreads the Great Lakes region early next week, forcing for ascent associated with warm advection could begin supporting organizing thunderstorm clusters potentially impacting portions of New England, and/or the lower Great Lakes through Mid Atlantic.

As guidance suggests that the westerlies will initially remain split downstream of the ridge, and a potentially notable short wave trough (and associated cold front) migrating around its periphery and eventually suppressing it, it remains unclear how potential frontal and pre-frontal convection will pan out on any particular day. Due to both synoptic and sub-synoptic predictability issues, severe probabilities remain at less than 15 percent in the day 6-8 time frame. However, this probably will change in later outlooks closer to this time period, when the potential for introducing unduly large forecast false alarm decreases.

..Kerr.. 07/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Wednesday, July 15

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Sunday, July 12 potential too low
Day 5 Monday, July 13 predictability too low
Day 6 Tuesday, July 14 predictability too low
Day 7 Wednesday, July 15 predictability too low
Day 8 Thursday, July 16 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090900 SPC AC 090900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range models continue to indicate that the center of strong mid-level ridging building northeast of the Four Corners states will shift across the middle Missouri Valley early next week, where it may reach peak intensity by about Tuesday, before becoming suppressed. Even as this commences, mid-level ridging in the westerlies may be maintained near and north/northeast of the international border, from the Great Plains through the Great Lakes, while large-scale downstream troughing amplifies southeastward across the Northeast.

Associated with this evolution, a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air still appears likely to advect on the southern fringe of a belt of strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of this ridging. As the nose of the warmer air overspreads the Great Lakes region early next week, forcing for ascent associated with warm advection could begin supporting organizing thunderstorm clusters potentially impacting portions of New England, and/or the lower Great Lakes through Mid Atlantic.

As guidance suggests that the westerlies will initially remain split downstream of the ridge, and a potentially notable short wave trough (and associated cold front) migrating around its periphery and eventually suppressing it, it remains unclear how potential frontal and pre-frontal convection will pan out on any particular day. Due to both synoptic and sub-synoptic predictability issues, severe probabilities remain at less than 15 percent in the day 6-8 time frame. However, this probably will change in later outlooks closer to this time period, when the potential for introducing unduly large forecast false alarm decreases.

..Kerr.. 07/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Thursday, July 16

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Sunday, July 12 potential too low
Day 5 Monday, July 13 predictability too low
Day 6 Tuesday, July 14 predictability too low
Day 7 Wednesday, July 15 predictability too low
Day 8 Thursday, July 16 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090900 SPC AC 090900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range models continue to indicate that the center of strong mid-level ridging building northeast of the Four Corners states will shift across the middle Missouri Valley early next week, where it may reach peak intensity by about Tuesday, before becoming suppressed. Even as this commences, mid-level ridging in the westerlies may be maintained near and north/northeast of the international border, from the Great Plains through the Great Lakes, while large-scale downstream troughing amplifies southeastward across the Northeast.

Associated with this evolution, a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air still appears likely to advect on the southern fringe of a belt of strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of this ridging. As the nose of the warmer air overspreads the Great Lakes region early next week, forcing for ascent associated with warm advection could begin supporting organizing thunderstorm clusters potentially impacting portions of New England, and/or the lower Great Lakes through Mid Atlantic.

As guidance suggests that the westerlies will initially remain split downstream of the ridge, and a potentially notable short wave trough (and associated cold front) migrating around its periphery and eventually suppressing it, it remains unclear how potential frontal and pre-frontal convection will pan out on any particular day. Due to both synoptic and sub-synoptic predictability issues, severe probabilities remain at less than 15 percent in the day 6-8 time frame. However, this probably will change in later outlooks closer to this time period, when the potential for introducing unduly large forecast false alarm decreases.

..Kerr.. 07/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

National Risk Overview

Thursday, July 9
TORNADO: 2%
HAIL: 15%
WIND: 15%
Friday, July 10
TORNADO: low
HAIL: 5%
WIND: 5%
Saturday, July 11
ANY SEVERE: 5%
Sunday, July 12
ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, July 13
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, July 14
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, July 15
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, July 16
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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