Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, September 28
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorm probability remains low on Monday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 281228
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0728 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026
Valid 281300Z - 291200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorm probability remains low on Monday.
Northern Plains
Surface high pressure centered over the Great Lakes and a developing area of low pressure over the High Plains will maintain southerly flow and an adequately moist airmass over NE and the Dakotas. Ongoing scattered showers/thunderstorms will continue to move northeast, followed by thickening mid/high-level clouds, which will likely limit destabilization. However, some gradual warming through mid afternoon will favor 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE developing from western NE northward into ND. A surface trough will likely focus some of the isolated to scattered thunderstorms that eventually develop. Overall modest forcing for ascent and some elongation of forecast hodographs (mostly due to a 250-mb speed max) may yield a couple of strong thunderstorms developing. Uncertainty where the strongest storms develop and their intensity magnitude lend sufficient concern to preclude low-severe probabilities this outlook update. By later this evening, a re-invigoration of a southerly LLJ may continue to support elevated storms into the overnight.
Southeast CA/southern NV/western AZ
Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected as an anomalously moist airmass spreads north ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough forecast to move from the central Valleys to the lower CO River Valley during the period. Widespread clouds and weak midlevel lapse rates should keep instability generally limited through early afternoon before cloud cover mostly dissipates and a mid-level cold pocket arrives by early evening. A stronger storm or two is possible over this region but the stronger-storm threat combined with remaining uncertainty in where the more vigorous storms will develop, appears too low to warrant unconditional probabilities.
..Smith/Bentley.. 09/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Tuesday, September 29
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 280552
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. Tuesday and Tuesday night.
DISCUSSION
An upper-level low will move across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday, as flow aloft remains southwesterly over much of the central U.S. Ahead of the system, weak instability will develop during the day from eastern Arizona and New Mexico northeastward into the central Plains. Thunderstorm development will be most concentrated over the southern Rockies where large-scale ascent will be stronger, but isolated storms could form as far northeast as the upper Mississippi Valley. Instability will remain too weak for a severe threat across the continental U.S. Tuesday and Tuesday night.
..Broyles.. 09/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Wednesday, September 30
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with large hail, wind damage and perhaps a tornado or two will be possible on Wednesday afternoon and evening in parts of west-central and northwest Texas into western and central Oklahoma. Isolated severe storms will also be possible in parts of western and central Kansas into far southern Nebraska.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 280730
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026
Valid 301200Z - 011200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with large hail, wind damage and perhaps a tornado or two will be possible on Wednesday afternoon and evening in parts of west-central and northwest Texas into western and central Oklahoma. Isolated severe storms will also be possible in parts of western and central Kansas into far southern Nebraska.
Southern Plains
An upper-level low and an associated 50 to 70 knot mid-level jet will move from the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains on Wednesday. A surface low will move eastward into western Kansas during the day, as a dryline sharpens from the far eastern Texas Panhandle southward into west Texas. To the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s F, which will contribute to a pocket of moderate instability from west Texas into southwest Oklahoma by afternoon. As large-scale ascent associated with the approaching system overspreads the dryline, thunderstorms will develop and increase in coverage in the mid to late afternoon. A line of storms is expected to organize and move eastward across the southern Plains during the late afternoon and evening.
Model forecasts vary concerning the exact position of the strongest instability on Wednesday. The latest ECMWF seems to be close to consensus, with MLCAPE increasing into the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range from east of Lubbock to near Lawton. This location will be just to the east of the mid-level jet, which will provide deep-layer shear favorable for severe thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings at 21Z near the forecast instability axis have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, which will support supercells with a threat of wind damage and hail. Although storm development may initially be discrete, a line is expected to form as convective coverage fills the east of the dryline. This line will be capable of wind damage. During the early evening, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to increase into the 200 to 250 m2/s2 range, suggesting that a tornado threat will also develop with embedded rotating storms in the line. Any severe threat should persist into the mid to late evening as the line moves eastward across central Oklahoma and central to southwest Texas.
Central Plains
At mid-levels, divergent southwesterly flow will be in place across the central Plains on Wednesday. At the surface, a low will move eastward into western Kansas with a dryline extending southward from the low. Surface heating and increasing low-level convergence near the dryline should result in thunderstorm development during the late afternoon. As the exit region of a mid-level jet overspreads western Kansas during the day, deep-layer shear will become strong enough to support organized convection. Storms are expected to increase in coverage and move eastward into central Kansas during the late afternoon and early evening. Although low-level lapse rates are forecast to be poor, MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg with 50 kts of 0-6 km shear should support an isolated severe threat. Severe wind gusts and hail will be possible with supercells or multicells, especially as low-level flow increases during the early evening.
..Broyles.. 09/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Thursday, October 1
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, October 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, October 2 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, October 3 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, October 4 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, October 5 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280856 SPC AC 280856
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Thursday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 5
On Thursday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move through the southern Plains. Ahead of the trough, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to be in place Thursday afternoon from central Texas north-northeastward into southwest Missouri. Thunderstorm development is expected along and near parts of the instability axis during the afternoon and evening. The area with the greatest potential for severe storms appears to be across central Texas, where current model forecast have moderate instability and moderate deep-layer juxtaposed. However, the favored corridor is forecast to be narrow, and there is some uncertainty concerning the placement of the instability axis. Severe wind gusts and hail will be possible with storms that form near the instability axis Thursday afternoon and evening.
Thunderstorms will again be possible ahead of the trough on Friday, from parts of the mid Mississippi Valley southwestward into the Ark-La-Tex. Along this corridor, an isolated severe threat will be possible with storms that develop near localized maximums of instability. However, deep-layer shear is forecast to be relatively weak, suggesting that any severe threat will remain marginal.
Saturday/Day 6 and Monday/Day 8
From Saturday to Monday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move from the northern Plains into the Northeast. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance southward from the Mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys to near the Gulf Coast. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible each day ahead of the front, with the greatest convective coverage in the Southeast. Deep-layer shear is expected to remain relatively weak across the moist sector, which should minimize the potential for severe storms.
..Broyles.. 09/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, October 2
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, October 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, October 2 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, October 3 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, October 4 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, October 5 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280856 SPC AC 280856
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Thursday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 5
On Thursday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move through the southern Plains. Ahead of the trough, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to be in place Thursday afternoon from central Texas north-northeastward into southwest Missouri. Thunderstorm development is expected along and near parts of the instability axis during the afternoon and evening. The area with the greatest potential for severe storms appears to be across central Texas, where current model forecast have moderate instability and moderate deep-layer juxtaposed. However, the favored corridor is forecast to be narrow, and there is some uncertainty concerning the placement of the instability axis. Severe wind gusts and hail will be possible with storms that form near the instability axis Thursday afternoon and evening.
Thunderstorms will again be possible ahead of the trough on Friday, from parts of the mid Mississippi Valley southwestward into the Ark-La-Tex. Along this corridor, an isolated severe threat will be possible with storms that develop near localized maximums of instability. However, deep-layer shear is forecast to be relatively weak, suggesting that any severe threat will remain marginal.
Saturday/Day 6 and Monday/Day 8
From Saturday to Monday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move from the northern Plains into the Northeast. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance southward from the Mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys to near the Gulf Coast. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible each day ahead of the front, with the greatest convective coverage in the Southeast. Deep-layer shear is expected to remain relatively weak across the moist sector, which should minimize the potential for severe storms.
..Broyles.. 09/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, October 3
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, October 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, October 2 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, October 3 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, October 4 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, October 5 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280856 SPC AC 280856
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Thursday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 5
On Thursday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move through the southern Plains. Ahead of the trough, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to be in place Thursday afternoon from central Texas north-northeastward into southwest Missouri. Thunderstorm development is expected along and near parts of the instability axis during the afternoon and evening. The area with the greatest potential for severe storms appears to be across central Texas, where current model forecast have moderate instability and moderate deep-layer juxtaposed. However, the favored corridor is forecast to be narrow, and there is some uncertainty concerning the placement of the instability axis. Severe wind gusts and hail will be possible with storms that form near the instability axis Thursday afternoon and evening.
Thunderstorms will again be possible ahead of the trough on Friday, from parts of the mid Mississippi Valley southwestward into the Ark-La-Tex. Along this corridor, an isolated severe threat will be possible with storms that develop near localized maximums of instability. However, deep-layer shear is forecast to be relatively weak, suggesting that any severe threat will remain marginal.
Saturday/Day 6 and Monday/Day 8
From Saturday to Monday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move from the northern Plains into the Northeast. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance southward from the Mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys to near the Gulf Coast. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible each day ahead of the front, with the greatest convective coverage in the Southeast. Deep-layer shear is expected to remain relatively weak across the moist sector, which should minimize the potential for severe storms.
..Broyles.. 09/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, October 4
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, October 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, October 2 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, October 3 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, October 4 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, October 5 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280856 SPC AC 280856
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Thursday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 5
On Thursday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move through the southern Plains. Ahead of the trough, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to be in place Thursday afternoon from central Texas north-northeastward into southwest Missouri. Thunderstorm development is expected along and near parts of the instability axis during the afternoon and evening. The area with the greatest potential for severe storms appears to be across central Texas, where current model forecast have moderate instability and moderate deep-layer juxtaposed. However, the favored corridor is forecast to be narrow, and there is some uncertainty concerning the placement of the instability axis. Severe wind gusts and hail will be possible with storms that form near the instability axis Thursday afternoon and evening.
Thunderstorms will again be possible ahead of the trough on Friday, from parts of the mid Mississippi Valley southwestward into the Ark-La-Tex. Along this corridor, an isolated severe threat will be possible with storms that develop near localized maximums of instability. However, deep-layer shear is forecast to be relatively weak, suggesting that any severe threat will remain marginal.
Saturday/Day 6 and Monday/Day 8
From Saturday to Monday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move from the northern Plains into the Northeast. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance southward from the Mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys to near the Gulf Coast. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible each day ahead of the front, with the greatest convective coverage in the Southeast. Deep-layer shear is expected to remain relatively weak across the moist sector, which should minimize the potential for severe storms.
..Broyles.. 09/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, October 5
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, October 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, October 2 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, October 3 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, October 4 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, October 5 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280856 SPC AC 280856
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Thursday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 5
On Thursday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move through the southern Plains. Ahead of the trough, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to be in place Thursday afternoon from central Texas north-northeastward into southwest Missouri. Thunderstorm development is expected along and near parts of the instability axis during the afternoon and evening. The area with the greatest potential for severe storms appears to be across central Texas, where current model forecast have moderate instability and moderate deep-layer juxtaposed. However, the favored corridor is forecast to be narrow, and there is some uncertainty concerning the placement of the instability axis. Severe wind gusts and hail will be possible with storms that form near the instability axis Thursday afternoon and evening.
Thunderstorms will again be possible ahead of the trough on Friday, from parts of the mid Mississippi Valley southwestward into the Ark-La-Tex. Along this corridor, an isolated severe threat will be possible with storms that develop near localized maximums of instability. However, deep-layer shear is forecast to be relatively weak, suggesting that any severe threat will remain marginal.
Saturday/Day 6 and Monday/Day 8
From Saturday to Monday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move from the northern Plains into the Northeast. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance southward from the Mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys to near the Gulf Coast. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible each day ahead of the front, with the greatest convective coverage in the Southeast. Deep-layer shear is expected to remain relatively weak across the moist sector, which should minimize the potential for severe storms.
..Broyles.. 09/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, September 28
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, September 29
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Wednesday, September 30
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Thursday, October 1
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, October 2
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, October 3
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, October 4
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, October 5
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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