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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Friday, October 9

Outlook Summary

With the approach of Hurricane Isaias, tornado potential will steadily increase this afternoon and continue tonight, especially across the Florida Panhandle into southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 091613

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026

Valid 091630Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA…SOUTHEAST ALABAMA…AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA

### SUMMARY

With the approach of Hurricane Isaias, tornado potential will steadily increase this afternoon and continue tonight, especially across the Florida Panhandle into southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia.

Florida Panhandle into northern Florida/southern Alabama/southern Georgia

Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest forecast track/intensity details regarding Hurricane Isaias. The latest discussion indicates that Isaias has reached major hurricane status as it moves north-northeastward toward the western Florida Panhandle/far southern Alabama.

As Isaias approaches the coast, rainbands on its eastern periphery will spread northward toward the Big Bend of the Florida Panhandle, far southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia this afternoon into tonight. Throughout the day, a more unstable airmass over the eastern Gulf will advance northward, resulting in destabilization over the coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle. The current VAD profile at KTLH is already supportive of tornado potential (i.e., 0-1 SRH over 250 m2/s2), and low-level winds and SRH will strengthen significantly this afternoon and evening. Once the mid 70s F dewpoints come onshore, persistent, deeper updrafts will be possible with the propensity to rotate and have the potential to produce tornadoes, particularly across the Florida Panhandle into southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia.

Additionally, some enhancement to the wind field, potentially including a convective influence, may occur across southern Alabama in vicinity of the evolving inverted surface trough late this afternoon into tonight.

..Jirak/Smith.. 10/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

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Outlook for Saturday, October 10

Outlook Summary

The threat for a few tornadoes will exist from the Florida Panhandle into parts of Georgia and the Carolinas Saturday into Saturday evening.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 091729

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA

### SUMMARY

The threat for a few tornadoes will exist from the Florida Panhandle into parts of Georgia and the Carolinas Saturday into Saturday evening.

Discussion

Models continue to indicate consolidation of a number of short wave perturbations into highly amplified larger-scale mid/upper troughing across much of the Pacific Coast vicinity Saturday through Saturday night. It appears that this will include digging troughing within the initially stronger branch of mid-latitude westerlies along the northern U.S. Pacific coast, and consolidating troughing in a separate weaker branch across the southern mid- to subtropical latitude eastern Pacific into southern California/northern Baja. Near the leading edge of this latter regime, the remnants of Tropical Storm Rachel may accelerate inland into the southern California Sonoran Desert vicinity by 12Z Sunday.

Downstream flow is forecast to remain split, with broad mid/upper ridging forecast to generally continue to build within the stronger northern branch, east of the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard. Within the weaker southern branch, a developing mid-level low, including remnants of Isaias, and associated upper troughing are forecast to begin gradually turning northward and northeastward, around the northwestern periphery of westward building mid/upper ridging across the subtropical western Atlantic through the northern Caribbean and southeastern Gulf Basin.

Southeast

As the sheared remnants of Isaias progress further inland, the low-level circulation center is expected to eventually undergo a period of more rapid weakening. After curving north-northwestward into/through a drier/more stable environment across central Alabama, it is forecast to slowly accelerate northward/northeastward toward the Cumberland Plateau Saturday night. However, there remains rather sizable spread within/among the various model output concerning this and related developments, which will considerably impact any continuing risk for tornadoes.

In general, it appears that a broad lingering belt of moderate southerly low-level flow (perhaps with embedded stronger corridors) will support a moistening sector to the east/southeast of the center, on the modifying southwestern flank of a surface ridge slowly shifting across and offshore of middle/northern Atlantic coastal areas. This likely will include the return seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content, with dew points increasing into the 70s F, which may support CAPE on the order of 500-1000+ J/kg to the east of the remnant mid-level warm core.

As the upstream mid/upper troughing slowly pivots toward this environment, intensifying thunderstorm development appears probable through the afternoon into evening, mainly across Georgia and northern Florida into parts of the Carolinas. As this occurs, lingering enlarged clockwise curved low-level hodographs and developing near-surface buoyancy may become conducive to widely scattered low-topped supercells with potential to produce tornadoes. ### Lower Colorado Valley vicinity

Strengthening wind fields associated with the approaching tropical system, coupled with the potential for an influx of high boundary-layer moisture content off the Gulf of California, probably supports at least a conditional risk for a tornado or two late Saturday night or early Sunday, if conditions come together favorably. At this point, given model spread, this potential still seems rather low.

..Kerr.. 10/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Sunday, October 11

Outlook Summary

Isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes appear possible over portions of the Carolinas into the Delmarva Sunday into Sunday evening, and parts of the lower Colorado Valley mainly Sunday morning.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 090728

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO THE DELMARVA AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes appear possible over portions of the Carolinas into the Delmarva Sunday into Sunday evening, and parts of the lower Colorado Valley mainly Sunday morning.

Synopsis

A mid/upper-level low over KY/TN Sunday morning is forecast to evolve into an open wave within a broader-scale trough progressing through the central and southern Appalachians toward the Atlantic Coast. Elsewhere, the remnants of Tropical Storm Rachel initially over southern CA will become increasingly sheared within a broad belt of enhanced midlevel flow extending from the Desert Southwest into the central Rockies. At the surface, an area of low pressure will develop from KY into the upper OH Valley with secondary cyclogenesis forecast on Sunday afternoon in the lee of the Blue Ridge over central VA. That cyclone will be collocated with a surface trough advancing east through the Piedmont and Coastal Plain and a warm front lifting north through the southern Mid-Atlantic.

### Delmarva into the Carolinas

Considerable strengthening of the deep-layer wind field is forecast on Sunday in advance of the midlevel trough. However, considerable cloud cover and areas of precipitation appear likely to limit air mass destabilization within the poleward-expanding warm sector. Nonetheless, boundary-layer dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s will support pockets of modest instability, especially in areas where cloud breaks may occur. And given the presence of relatively strong low-level and deep-layer shear, a conditional risk for severe storms capable of damaging winds and perhaps a few tornadoes will exist Sunday into Sunday evening. Higher severe weather probabilities may be required in later forecasts if subsequent model data indicate greater instability than that currently depicted.

### Lower Colorado and Vicinity

As detailed in the recently issued Day 2 Convective Outlook, the enhancement of deep-layer shear and forcing for ascent will coincide with an at least modestly unstable air mass late Saturday night into early Sunday. That regime is likely to persist through at least Sunday morning with an associated risk for a few severe storms capable of severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or two. The overall weakening of the midlevel trough by afternoon and limited instability lead to uncertainty as to whether any severe weather threat will spread north into the Great Basin and central Rockies.

..Mead.. 10/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Monday, October 12

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090903 SPC AC 090903

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0403 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

There is reasonably good agreement in 00Z deterministic and ensemble guidance that a mid/upper-level low centered over the Sierra Nevada or Great Basin on Day 4/Monday will evolve into an open wave while progressing into the Great Plains on Day 6/Wednesday. Thereafter, model spread increases in the evolution of the large-scale pattern.

Day 4/Monday

Some severe weather threat could materialize during the afternoon along a surface boundary over the Upper Midwest where at least modest instability will coincide with sufficiently strong deep-layer shear to support organized storm modes. However, low-amplitude ridging downstream from the western U.S. trough along with uncertainty in the extent of air mass destabilization renders the threat too questionable to include a 15% area.

### Day 5/Tuesday

Increasing height falls and midlevel flow will overspread the central and southern High Plains, which in turn will induce a deepening lee cyclone, likely over southeast CO. At the surface, a front is expected to stretch from the low through the OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic with a dryline trailing south from the cyclone into eastern NM or western TX. Isolated strong to severe storms appear possible along the length of the front from the Mid-Atlantic into the central and southern Plains. Organized severe storm potential appears most probable over the central and southern High Plains Tuesday afternoon into evening in the vicinity of the lee cyclone and strengthening low-level jet, where the strongest forcing for ascent and vertical shear will coincide.

### Day 6/Wednesday

As mentioned above, there is overall model agreement that a short-wave trough and a strengthening deep-layer wind field will advance into the Great Plains at this time. However, there are slight timing and latitudinal differences in the track of the midlevel system and the associated surface low. Despite these differences, it does appear that a broad, moist, and unstable warm sector will exist. As such, organized severe storms appear possible with the highest confidence in occurrence over portions of eastern KS into MO where guidance currently indicates the most favorable overlap of instability and vertical shear. The currently delineated area may move slightly and/or expand in the coming days as forecast confidence increases.

### Days 7 and 8/Thursday and Friday

Some severe weather threat could develop over the Great Lakes and OH Valley on Thursday in association with the mid-level trough discussed in the previous sections. However, confidence in organized severe storm potential is currently too low given the model variability in the specific details of the trough and associated frontal system.

..Mead.. 10/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, October 13

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090903 SPC AC 090903

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0403 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

There is reasonably good agreement in 00Z deterministic and ensemble guidance that a mid/upper-level low centered over the Sierra Nevada or Great Basin on Day 4/Monday will evolve into an open wave while progressing into the Great Plains on Day 6/Wednesday. Thereafter, model spread increases in the evolution of the large-scale pattern.

Day 4/Monday

Some severe weather threat could materialize during the afternoon along a surface boundary over the Upper Midwest where at least modest instability will coincide with sufficiently strong deep-layer shear to support organized storm modes. However, low-amplitude ridging downstream from the western U.S. trough along with uncertainty in the extent of air mass destabilization renders the threat too questionable to include a 15% area.

### Day 5/Tuesday

Increasing height falls and midlevel flow will overspread the central and southern High Plains, which in turn will induce a deepening lee cyclone, likely over southeast CO. At the surface, a front is expected to stretch from the low through the OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic with a dryline trailing south from the cyclone into eastern NM or western TX. Isolated strong to severe storms appear possible along the length of the front from the Mid-Atlantic into the central and southern Plains. Organized severe storm potential appears most probable over the central and southern High Plains Tuesday afternoon into evening in the vicinity of the lee cyclone and strengthening low-level jet, where the strongest forcing for ascent and vertical shear will coincide.

### Day 6/Wednesday

As mentioned above, there is overall model agreement that a short-wave trough and a strengthening deep-layer wind field will advance into the Great Plains at this time. However, there are slight timing and latitudinal differences in the track of the midlevel system and the associated surface low. Despite these differences, it does appear that a broad, moist, and unstable warm sector will exist. As such, organized severe storms appear possible with the highest confidence in occurrence over portions of eastern KS into MO where guidance currently indicates the most favorable overlap of instability and vertical shear. The currently delineated area may move slightly and/or expand in the coming days as forecast confidence increases.

### Days 7 and 8/Thursday and Friday

Some severe weather threat could develop over the Great Lakes and OH Valley on Thursday in association with the mid-level trough discussed in the previous sections. However, confidence in organized severe storm potential is currently too low given the model variability in the specific details of the trough and associated frontal system.

..Mead.. 10/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, October 14

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090903 SPC AC 090903

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0403 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

There is reasonably good agreement in 00Z deterministic and ensemble guidance that a mid/upper-level low centered over the Sierra Nevada or Great Basin on Day 4/Monday will evolve into an open wave while progressing into the Great Plains on Day 6/Wednesday. Thereafter, model spread increases in the evolution of the large-scale pattern.

Day 4/Monday

Some severe weather threat could materialize during the afternoon along a surface boundary over the Upper Midwest where at least modest instability will coincide with sufficiently strong deep-layer shear to support organized storm modes. However, low-amplitude ridging downstream from the western U.S. trough along with uncertainty in the extent of air mass destabilization renders the threat too questionable to include a 15% area.

### Day 5/Tuesday

Increasing height falls and midlevel flow will overspread the central and southern High Plains, which in turn will induce a deepening lee cyclone, likely over southeast CO. At the surface, a front is expected to stretch from the low through the OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic with a dryline trailing south from the cyclone into eastern NM or western TX. Isolated strong to severe storms appear possible along the length of the front from the Mid-Atlantic into the central and southern Plains. Organized severe storm potential appears most probable over the central and southern High Plains Tuesday afternoon into evening in the vicinity of the lee cyclone and strengthening low-level jet, where the strongest forcing for ascent and vertical shear will coincide.

### Day 6/Wednesday

As mentioned above, there is overall model agreement that a short-wave trough and a strengthening deep-layer wind field will advance into the Great Plains at this time. However, there are slight timing and latitudinal differences in the track of the midlevel system and the associated surface low. Despite these differences, it does appear that a broad, moist, and unstable warm sector will exist. As such, organized severe storms appear possible with the highest confidence in occurrence over portions of eastern KS into MO where guidance currently indicates the most favorable overlap of instability and vertical shear. The currently delineated area may move slightly and/or expand in the coming days as forecast confidence increases.

### Days 7 and 8/Thursday and Friday

Some severe weather threat could develop over the Great Lakes and OH Valley on Thursday in association with the mid-level trough discussed in the previous sections. However, confidence in organized severe storm potential is currently too low given the model variability in the specific details of the trough and associated frontal system.

..Mead.. 10/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Thursday, October 15

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090903 SPC AC 090903

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0403 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

There is reasonably good agreement in 00Z deterministic and ensemble guidance that a mid/upper-level low centered over the Sierra Nevada or Great Basin on Day 4/Monday will evolve into an open wave while progressing into the Great Plains on Day 6/Wednesday. Thereafter, model spread increases in the evolution of the large-scale pattern.

Day 4/Monday

Some severe weather threat could materialize during the afternoon along a surface boundary over the Upper Midwest where at least modest instability will coincide with sufficiently strong deep-layer shear to support organized storm modes. However, low-amplitude ridging downstream from the western U.S. trough along with uncertainty in the extent of air mass destabilization renders the threat too questionable to include a 15% area.

### Day 5/Tuesday

Increasing height falls and midlevel flow will overspread the central and southern High Plains, which in turn will induce a deepening lee cyclone, likely over southeast CO. At the surface, a front is expected to stretch from the low through the OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic with a dryline trailing south from the cyclone into eastern NM or western TX. Isolated strong to severe storms appear possible along the length of the front from the Mid-Atlantic into the central and southern Plains. Organized severe storm potential appears most probable over the central and southern High Plains Tuesday afternoon into evening in the vicinity of the lee cyclone and strengthening low-level jet, where the strongest forcing for ascent and vertical shear will coincide.

### Day 6/Wednesday

As mentioned above, there is overall model agreement that a short-wave trough and a strengthening deep-layer wind field will advance into the Great Plains at this time. However, there are slight timing and latitudinal differences in the track of the midlevel system and the associated surface low. Despite these differences, it does appear that a broad, moist, and unstable warm sector will exist. As such, organized severe storms appear possible with the highest confidence in occurrence over portions of eastern KS into MO where guidance currently indicates the most favorable overlap of instability and vertical shear. The currently delineated area may move slightly and/or expand in the coming days as forecast confidence increases.

### Days 7 and 8/Thursday and Friday

Some severe weather threat could develop over the Great Lakes and OH Valley on Thursday in association with the mid-level trough discussed in the previous sections. However, confidence in organized severe storm potential is currently too low given the model variability in the specific details of the trough and associated frontal system.

..Mead.. 10/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Friday, October 16

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090903 SPC AC 090903

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0403 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

There is reasonably good agreement in 00Z deterministic and ensemble guidance that a mid/upper-level low centered over the Sierra Nevada or Great Basin on Day 4/Monday will evolve into an open wave while progressing into the Great Plains on Day 6/Wednesday. Thereafter, model spread increases in the evolution of the large-scale pattern.

Day 4/Monday

Some severe weather threat could materialize during the afternoon along a surface boundary over the Upper Midwest where at least modest instability will coincide with sufficiently strong deep-layer shear to support organized storm modes. However, low-amplitude ridging downstream from the western U.S. trough along with uncertainty in the extent of air mass destabilization renders the threat too questionable to include a 15% area.

### Day 5/Tuesday

Increasing height falls and midlevel flow will overspread the central and southern High Plains, which in turn will induce a deepening lee cyclone, likely over southeast CO. At the surface, a front is expected to stretch from the low through the OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic with a dryline trailing south from the cyclone into eastern NM or western TX. Isolated strong to severe storms appear possible along the length of the front from the Mid-Atlantic into the central and southern Plains. Organized severe storm potential appears most probable over the central and southern High Plains Tuesday afternoon into evening in the vicinity of the lee cyclone and strengthening low-level jet, where the strongest forcing for ascent and vertical shear will coincide.

### Day 6/Wednesday

As mentioned above, there is overall model agreement that a short-wave trough and a strengthening deep-layer wind field will advance into the Great Plains at this time. However, there are slight timing and latitudinal differences in the track of the midlevel system and the associated surface low. Despite these differences, it does appear that a broad, moist, and unstable warm sector will exist. As such, organized severe storms appear possible with the highest confidence in occurrence over portions of eastern KS into MO where guidance currently indicates the most favorable overlap of instability and vertical shear. The currently delineated area may move slightly and/or expand in the coming days as forecast confidence increases.

### Days 7 and 8/Thursday and Friday

Some severe weather threat could develop over the Great Lakes and OH Valley on Thursday in association with the mid-level trough discussed in the previous sections. However, confidence in organized severe storm potential is currently too low given the model variability in the specific details of the trough and associated frontal system.

..Mead.. 10/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Friday, October 9

TORNADO: 10%

HAIL: low

WIND: 5%

Saturday, October 10

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: low

WIND: 5%

Sunday, October 11

ANY SEVERE: 5%

Monday, October 12

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Tuesday, October 13

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Wednesday, October 14

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Thursday, October 15

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, October 16

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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