Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, December 1
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe storms are possible across coastal portions of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle late tonight into early Tuesday morning.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 011245
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 AM CST Mon Dec 01 2025
Valid 011300Z - 021200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe storms are possible across coastal portions of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle late tonight into early Tuesday morning.
Synopsis
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving eastward through the Four Corners vicinity, within the base of a larger upper trough that extends from the Upper MS Valley through AZ. This shortwave is forecast to pivot eastward and then northeastward throughout the period, moving across the southern/central High Plains, OK/KS, and the Mid-South before ending the period over the upper OH Valley. A strong mid-level jetlet (i.e. 90 kt at 500-mb) is anticipated within the base of this shortwave, with a more expansive strengthening of the mid-level southwesterly flow anticipated across much of area preceding the wave (i.e. from the mid/lower MS Valley into much of the eastern CONUS).
Even with the strengthening wind fields aloft and large-scale ascent attendant to this deepening wave, the limited time since the previous frontal intrusion will keep any low-level moisture return confined largely to the immediate Gulf Coast. Even so, a few elevated thunderstorms are possible from this morning into the afternoon across the TX Gulf Coast, with much of this activity supported by ascent and warm-air advection attendant to a more subtle, lower-amplitude shortwave currently moving into south TX. Phasing of this lower-amplitude shortwave with the stronger shortwave farther north will support a more expansive strengthening of the low-level south-southwesterly flow late in the period. This phasing will also contribute to a deepening of a surface low progressing northeastward along a warm front moving northward into the FL Panhandle. Some severe potential is possible late tonight into early tomorrow as this surface low interacts with an increasingly moist and buoyant airmass over the FL Panhandle.
Coastal AL and FL Panhandle
Most guidance brings mid 60s dewpoints into immediate coastal region of AL and the FL Panhandle during the last 4 hours of the period (08Z-12Z Tuesday), just ahead of the surface low. This increasing low-level moisture should erode any low-level convective inhibition and result in an airmass supportive of surface-based thunderstorms. Buoyancy will be modest, but still sufficient, for deep updrafts, amid veering low-level wind profiles and robust mid-level flow. As a result, a few supercells could be maintained or develop as the warm sector convection moves ashore from coastal AL across the FL Panhandle. Primary risks with these storms are a brief tornado and/or localized damaging gusts over the immediate coast. This threat will continue past 12Z Tuesday into northern FL, which is discussed in the Day 2 Convective Outlook.
Coastal Carolinas
Strengthening low-level flow will contribute to increasing warm-air advection showers and thunderstorms late Monday through early Tuesday. Consensus within the guidance keeps the higher low-level moisture just offshore, and the majority of this activity will be elevated atop a strong low-level inversion. This should temper the overall severe potential. Immediate coastal regions south of MHX may see higher dewpoints right at the end of the period, but any stronger storms are still expected to remain offshore.
..Mosier/Dean.. 12/01/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Tuesday, December 2
Outlook Summary
Scattered thunderstorms are expected through Tuesday across the Southeast to the Atlantic Coastline. A damaging gust or brief tornado are possible Tuesday morning along the Florida Panhandle.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 010658
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Mon Dec 01 2025
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
### SUMMARY
Scattered thunderstorms are expected through Tuesday across the Southeast to the Atlantic Coastline. A damaging gust or brief tornado are possible Tuesday morning along the Florida Panhandle.
Synopsis
A mid-level trough will impinge on the Atlantic Coastline, with a surface low poised to rapidly translate northeast from the eastern Gulf Coast toward the New England coast tomorrow (Tuesday). During the first half of the period, low-level warm-air advection ahead of and to the north of the surface low will support primarily elevated buoyancy overspreading the Southeast and Carolina coastlines. Widespread rainfall with embedded thunderstorms are likely through 00Z Wednesday.
FL Panhandle
During the first few hours of the period (e.g. 12-16Z Tuesday morning), a few strong to isolated severe thunderstorms (remnant from the Day 1 period) may be ongoing along the FL Panhandle region. Large, curved, and elongated hodographs may precede the ongoing storms amid scant surface-based buoyancy within the warm-air advection regime. Over 500 J/kg MLCAPE may overlap with 200-400 m2/s2 0-3 km SRH along the western fringes of a departing low-level jet, supporting a risk for a damaging gust or perhaps a brief tornado.
..Squitieri.. 12/01/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Wednesday, December 3
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are possible over southeast Texas into Louisiana on Wednesday into early Thursday morning. The chance for severe thunderstorms currently appears very low.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 010824
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CST Mon Dec 01 2025
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are possible over southeast Texas into Louisiana on Wednesday into early Thursday morning. The chance for severe thunderstorms currently appears very low.
Synopsis
Broad upper troughing will gradually deepen over the central and eastern CONUS through the day Wednesday, resulting in widespread surface high pressure overspreading most of the CONUS. Static stability accompanying this widespread surface high pressure should limit thunderstorm development over most locales. The one exception will be portions of southeast TX into LA, where low-level lee troughing ahead of the upper trough will support the development of a southwesterly low-level jet. Warm-air advection will support both elevated buoyancy and ascent for thunderstorm development through the day Wednesday into early Thursday morning. If a more appreciable surface-based airmass can advect inland, a couple of severe storms cannot be ruled out. However, the confidence in this scenario is currently too low for the introduction of severe probabilities.
..Squitieri.. 12/01/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Thursday, December 4
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, December 4 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, December 5 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, December 6 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, December 7 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, December 8 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010837 SPC AC 010837
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 AM CST Mon Dec 01 2025
Valid 041200Z - 091200Z
DISCUSSION
A series of progressive mid-level troughs, embedded in broader west-northwest to east-southeast flow aloft, will aid in reinforcing multiple rounds of surface high pressure across most of the CONUS, with static stability limiting thunderstorm development over most locales. There is the chance that ahead of some of the high pressure surges that some low-level moisture could advect inland from the Gulf. Should this occur, at least isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible. Compared to earlier medium-range guidance, some of the most recent guidance has diverged in agreement of a more robustly buoyant airmass advecting inland through this weekend into early next week. As such, it currently does not appear that an organized severe threat will materialize in the Days 4-8 period.
..Squitieri.. 12/01/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, December 5
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, December 4 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, December 5 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, December 6 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, December 7 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, December 8 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010837 SPC AC 010837
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 AM CST Mon Dec 01 2025
Valid 041200Z - 091200Z
DISCUSSION
A series of progressive mid-level troughs, embedded in broader west-northwest to east-southeast flow aloft, will aid in reinforcing multiple rounds of surface high pressure across most of the CONUS, with static stability limiting thunderstorm development over most locales. There is the chance that ahead of some of the high pressure surges that some low-level moisture could advect inland from the Gulf. Should this occur, at least isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible. Compared to earlier medium-range guidance, some of the most recent guidance has diverged in agreement of a more robustly buoyant airmass advecting inland through this weekend into early next week. As such, it currently does not appear that an organized severe threat will materialize in the Days 4-8 period.
..Squitieri.. 12/01/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, December 6
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, December 4 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, December 5 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, December 6 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, December 7 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, December 8 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010837 SPC AC 010837
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 AM CST Mon Dec 01 2025
Valid 041200Z - 091200Z
DISCUSSION
A series of progressive mid-level troughs, embedded in broader west-northwest to east-southeast flow aloft, will aid in reinforcing multiple rounds of surface high pressure across most of the CONUS, with static stability limiting thunderstorm development over most locales. There is the chance that ahead of some of the high pressure surges that some low-level moisture could advect inland from the Gulf. Should this occur, at least isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible. Compared to earlier medium-range guidance, some of the most recent guidance has diverged in agreement of a more robustly buoyant airmass advecting inland through this weekend into early next week. As such, it currently does not appear that an organized severe threat will materialize in the Days 4-8 period.
..Squitieri.. 12/01/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, December 7
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, December 4 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, December 5 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, December 6 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, December 7 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, December 8 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010837 SPC AC 010837
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 AM CST Mon Dec 01 2025
Valid 041200Z - 091200Z
DISCUSSION
A series of progressive mid-level troughs, embedded in broader west-northwest to east-southeast flow aloft, will aid in reinforcing multiple rounds of surface high pressure across most of the CONUS, with static stability limiting thunderstorm development over most locales. There is the chance that ahead of some of the high pressure surges that some low-level moisture could advect inland from the Gulf. Should this occur, at least isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible. Compared to earlier medium-range guidance, some of the most recent guidance has diverged in agreement of a more robustly buoyant airmass advecting inland through this weekend into early next week. As such, it currently does not appear that an organized severe threat will materialize in the Days 4-8 period.
..Squitieri.. 12/01/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, December 8
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, December 4 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, December 5 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, December 6 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, December 7 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, December 8 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010837 SPC AC 010837
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 AM CST Mon Dec 01 2025
Valid 041200Z - 091200Z
DISCUSSION
A series of progressive mid-level troughs, embedded in broader west-northwest to east-southeast flow aloft, will aid in reinforcing multiple rounds of surface high pressure across most of the CONUS, with static stability limiting thunderstorm development over most locales. There is the chance that ahead of some of the high pressure surges that some low-level moisture could advect inland from the Gulf. Should this occur, at least isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible. Compared to earlier medium-range guidance, some of the most recent guidance has diverged in agreement of a more robustly buoyant airmass advecting inland through this weekend into early next week. As such, it currently does not appear that an organized severe threat will materialize in the Days 4-8 period.
..Squitieri.. 12/01/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, December 1
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Tuesday, December 2
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Wednesday, December 3
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Thursday, December 4
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, December 5
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, December 6
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, December 7
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, December 8
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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