Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Friday, June 26

Saturday, June 27

Sunday, June 28

Monday, June 29

Tuesday, June 30

Wednesday, July 1

Thursday, July 2

Friday, July 3

Outlook for Friday, June 26

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe thunderstorm development is possible today, particularly this afternoon into tonight across parts of the Ozark Plateau into lower Ohio Valley and across parts of the northern Rockies into adjacent Great Plains.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 5%

wind 15%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 260545

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARKS PLATEAU INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO ADJACENT GREAT PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe thunderstorm development is possible today, particularly this afternoon into tonight across parts of the Ozark Plateau into lower Ohio Valley and across parts of the northern Rockies into adjacent Great Plains.

Discussion

Models indicate that amplification of mid/upper flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific into western North America will continue through this period, with large-scale troughing and an embedded cyclonic circulation digging inland across the Pacific Northwest through Great Basin and northern Rockies, downstream of building ridging. As this occurs, ridging is likely to build across the northern Great Plains through upper Mississippi Valley, but broadly confluent, zonal flow is forecast to persist east of the mid/upper Mississippi Valley, in the wake of a mid-level trough accelerating east of the lower Great Lakes through New England and the Canadian Maritimes. On the southern periphery of this regime, a number of convectively generated perturbations may progress across the Ozarks Plateau and lower Ohio Valley through Mid Atlantic today through tonight.

In lower levels, a weak surface low is forecast to migrate east-northeast of the lower Great Lakes into northern New England, before weakening. This may be accompanied by a reinforcing influx of somewhat cooler and drier area, in the wake of an ill-defined/diffuse preceding front overspreading the northern Mid Atlantic. To the west of the Appalachians, this boundary may become augmented in locations by convective outflow and developing areas of strengthening differential surface heating during the day. Across the high plains, fairly significant surface cyclogenesis centered across southeastern Montana is probable by 12Z Saturday, with deepening surface troughing southward to the lee of the Rockies.

As a notable plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air spreads east of the higher terrain, through much of the Great Plains, initiation of stronger thunderstorm development may largely be confined to the higher terrain, before propagating into the deepening surface troughing across the adjacent plains. Otherwise, to the east of the Great Plains, forcing for ascent and destabilization along the weak front, and within low-level warm advection to the east-southeast of the weak low, may provide support for at least widely scattered strong to severe storm development.

Ozark Plateau into lower Ohio Valley

Higher coverage of potential strong to severe thunderstorm development may generally focus across this region, aided by at least a couple of convectively generated perturbations. There is spread among the various model output, but it still appears that this could include a fairly notable MCV migrating into the lower Ohio Valley by around 19-21Z, along a better-defined segment of the low-level baroclinic zone. With surface dew points forecast near 70F, and a convectively augmented belt of flow on the order of 30-50 kt in the 850-500 mb layer contributing to sufficient shear for supercell structures, a couple of tornadoes appear possible in a corridor roughly centered along the Ohio River. Otherwise, several clusters of thunderstorms may evolve this afternoon and evening, possibly accompanied by developing corridors of strong to severe wind gusts.

Northern Rockies into adjacent Great Plains

Given a corridor of at least weak to moderate boundary-layer destabilization near and to the lee of the higher terrain, forcing for ascent and strengthening vertical shear downstream of the digging large-scale troughing probably will become supportive of a period of organized severe thunderstorm development late this afternoon through evening. This may include supercells and organizing clusters posing a risk for severe hail and wind, and at least some potential for a tornado or two.

..Kerr/Chalmers.. 06/26/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Saturday, June 27

Outlook Summary

Severe storms are likely across portions of eastern Montana and western/central North Dakota on Saturday. Severe storms will also be possible from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to Virginia and the Carolinas.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 15%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 260600

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA…SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA INTO NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA

### SUMMARY

Severe storms are likely across portions of eastern Montana and western/central North Dakota on Saturday. Severe storms will also be possible from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to Virginia and the Carolinas.

Synopsis

A broad upper trough will persist in the West. Ridging will build within the southern/central Plains and Midwest. Multiple MCVs will impact portions of the Ozarks/Tennessee Valley into the Mid-Atlantic/Piedmont. A shortwave trough will pivot through parts of the northern Plains. A surface low near the Black Hills will deepen and move eastward into Sunday morning.

Northern Plains

Within a broader upper trough across the West, a shortwave trough will pivot northeast through the northern Plains. Surface low development in eastern Wyoming/the Black Hills vicinity will draw moisture northward. Effective shear of 40-50 kt will promote initial supercells capable of large/very-large hail, severe wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. Given the linear forcing within the surface trough as well as somewhat marginal deep-layer shear suggest some potential for upscale growth by early evening. As this occurs a transition to primarily a risk of severe wind gusts (perhaps 75+ mph) will occur. There may be a small corridor of greater severe gust coverage/intensity, but weaker and potential warm advection storms to the east decreases confidence in the spatial extent of a greater wind risk. Even so, some potential for severe gusts and isolated large hail will continue eastward during the evening along the nose of a low-level jet in the Dakotas. Farther south into Nebraska, convective development is more conditional/uncertain. The environment would support all severe hazards, however.

Ozarks into Tennessee Valley

Convection along a surface boundary driven by warm advection appears probable during the morning hours. This activity is expected to weaken within the Ozarks and may shift into the Tennessee Valley as the MCV moves eastward. Damaging winds and marginally severe hail may occur in Tennessee/Kentucky. Farther west, some airmass recovery is possible within southern Missouri. A weak MCV emanating from the southern High Plains may spur convective development during the afternoon despite modestly rising mid-level heights. A conditionally favorable environment for a supercell or two will exist. All severe hazards would be possible if storms can form.

Ohio Valley into Mid-Atlantic/Piedmont

Convection may be ongoing in portions of the mid/upper Ohio Valley during the morning. Some potential for isolated damaging winds may accompany this activity. Relatively high uncertainty exists as to how this early-day activity will evolve as it moves eastward during the day. A weak cold front is forecast to be positioned across parts of the Mid-Atlantic. South of this boundary, rich surface moisture will be in place. However, cloud cover may limit destabilization and weak to modest mid-level lapse rates and weak deep-layer flow will further limit storm organization potential. Depending on the timing/location of the Ohio Valley convection/MCV, a narrow zone of marginally greater shear may promote a more organized threat for wind damage in southeast Virginia into northeast North Carolina. Another weakening MCV moving through the Tennessee Valley will impact the region by late afternoon/early evening, but buoyancy by that point in the day is more questionable.

Mid-Missouri into Mid-Mississippi Valley

With an increase in the low-level jet during the evening, convection may develop along a boundary draped across the region. Effective shear and steep mid-level lapse rates would promote some risk for large hail and isolated damaging winds during the evening into the overnight. That said, rising mid-level heights may be enough to inhibit convection from forming altogether.

..Wendt.. 06/26/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Sunday, June 28

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern Plains into parts of the Upper Midwest on Sunday. Large hail and severe winds are the primary hazards.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 260727

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern Plains into parts of the Upper Midwest on Sunday. Large hail and severe winds are the primary hazards.

Eastern North Dakota into Minnesota

Some convection is expected to be ongoing during the early morning in eastern North Dakota. Given the time of day, it is not clear how intense this activity will be, but some risk for damaging winds/large hail may exist. With time, a plume of rich surface moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates will lift northward as the upper ridge builds in the Midwest. The morning activity may be able to intensify as is moves into northern Minnesota/northern Wisconsin. While there remains some uncertainty in the exact evolution, the Slight Risk has been shifted eastward to account for this potential.

Northern Plains

Convection is possible during the late evening as another shortwave pivots into the High Plains and a surface low deepens in the lee of the Rockies. The position of this shortwave is not certain. The ECMWF shows the surface low developing in the central High Plains while the NAM suggest this will occur farther north into Nebraska/South Dakota. In either case, steep mid-level lapse rates, strong deep-layer winds, and adequate buoyancy will support a risk of large hail and isolated severe gusts during late evening into parts of the overnight.

Midwest into Tennessee Valley Vicinity

Models suggest potential for an MCV to move southeastward through the day. The position of this feature varies substantially between models, however, and it will depend on if/how much convection develops late Saturday night. Marginal severe probabilities may be needed if confidence on the location of the MCV increases.

..Wendt.. 06/26/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

← back to overview

Outlook for Monday, June 29

Outlook Images

any severe 15%

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, June 29	15%
Day 5	Tuesday, June 30	predictability too low
Day 6	Wednesday, July 1	predictability too low
Day 7	Thursday, July 2	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, July 3	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260857 SPC AC 260857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Valid 291200Z - 041200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper-level trough centered within the Intermountain West will continue pivoting northeast through the northern Plains on Monday. This feature will be fairly meridional in character. The strongest height falls are likely to occur after 00Z within North Dakota. To the east, an amplified upper ridge will be in place. Moisture advection will continue in the upper Mississippi Valley given the southerly low levels winds. Strong to extreme buoyancy is expected to develop as a result. While this pattern does suggest potential for severe weather, there is still uncertainty as to where the most favorable environment will be given the influence of convection that could occur late on Sunday night into early Monday morning. The 15% area has been maintained this cycle given the potential for a an MCS to develop, but modification seems likely in the coming days given the mesoscale details that will play a large role in where severe weather ultimately occurs.

From Tuesday onward, the strongest mid-level flow will shift into Canada as the western upper trough becomes more broad. A large reservoir of strong to extreme buoyancy is still forecast to be in place underneath the ridge. While areas of severe weather are possible, they will be highly tied to mesoscale features as larger scale features will become more nebulous and deep-layer shear will weaken through the remainder of the period. As a result, predictability is reduced.

..Wendt.. 06/26/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Tuesday, June 30

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, June 29	15%
Day 5	Tuesday, June 30	predictability too low
Day 6	Wednesday, July 1	predictability too low
Day 7	Thursday, July 2	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, July 3	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260857 SPC AC 260857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Valid 291200Z - 041200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper-level trough centered within the Intermountain West will continue pivoting northeast through the northern Plains on Monday. This feature will be fairly meridional in character. The strongest height falls are likely to occur after 00Z within North Dakota. To the east, an amplified upper ridge will be in place. Moisture advection will continue in the upper Mississippi Valley given the southerly low levels winds. Strong to extreme buoyancy is expected to develop as a result. While this pattern does suggest potential for severe weather, there is still uncertainty as to where the most favorable environment will be given the influence of convection that could occur late on Sunday night into early Monday morning. The 15% area has been maintained this cycle given the potential for a an MCS to develop, but modification seems likely in the coming days given the mesoscale details that will play a large role in where severe weather ultimately occurs.

From Tuesday onward, the strongest mid-level flow will shift into Canada as the western upper trough becomes more broad. A large reservoir of strong to extreme buoyancy is still forecast to be in place underneath the ridge. While areas of severe weather are possible, they will be highly tied to mesoscale features as larger scale features will become more nebulous and deep-layer shear will weaken through the remainder of the period. As a result, predictability is reduced.

..Wendt.. 06/26/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Wednesday, July 1

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, June 29	15%
Day 5	Tuesday, June 30	predictability too low
Day 6	Wednesday, July 1	predictability too low
Day 7	Thursday, July 2	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, July 3	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260857 SPC AC 260857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Valid 291200Z - 041200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper-level trough centered within the Intermountain West will continue pivoting northeast through the northern Plains on Monday. This feature will be fairly meridional in character. The strongest height falls are likely to occur after 00Z within North Dakota. To the east, an amplified upper ridge will be in place. Moisture advection will continue in the upper Mississippi Valley given the southerly low levels winds. Strong to extreme buoyancy is expected to develop as a result. While this pattern does suggest potential for severe weather, there is still uncertainty as to where the most favorable environment will be given the influence of convection that could occur late on Sunday night into early Monday morning. The 15% area has been maintained this cycle given the potential for a an MCS to develop, but modification seems likely in the coming days given the mesoscale details that will play a large role in where severe weather ultimately occurs.

From Tuesday onward, the strongest mid-level flow will shift into Canada as the western upper trough becomes more broad. A large reservoir of strong to extreme buoyancy is still forecast to be in place underneath the ridge. While areas of severe weather are possible, they will be highly tied to mesoscale features as larger scale features will become more nebulous and deep-layer shear will weaken through the remainder of the period. As a result, predictability is reduced.

..Wendt.. 06/26/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Thursday, July 2

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, June 29	15%
Day 5	Tuesday, June 30	predictability too low
Day 6	Wednesday, July 1	predictability too low
Day 7	Thursday, July 2	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, July 3	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260857 SPC AC 260857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Valid 291200Z - 041200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper-level trough centered within the Intermountain West will continue pivoting northeast through the northern Plains on Monday. This feature will be fairly meridional in character. The strongest height falls are likely to occur after 00Z within North Dakota. To the east, an amplified upper ridge will be in place. Moisture advection will continue in the upper Mississippi Valley given the southerly low levels winds. Strong to extreme buoyancy is expected to develop as a result. While this pattern does suggest potential for severe weather, there is still uncertainty as to where the most favorable environment will be given the influence of convection that could occur late on Sunday night into early Monday morning. The 15% area has been maintained this cycle given the potential for a an MCS to develop, but modification seems likely in the coming days given the mesoscale details that will play a large role in where severe weather ultimately occurs.

From Tuesday onward, the strongest mid-level flow will shift into Canada as the western upper trough becomes more broad. A large reservoir of strong to extreme buoyancy is still forecast to be in place underneath the ridge. While areas of severe weather are possible, they will be highly tied to mesoscale features as larger scale features will become more nebulous and deep-layer shear will weaken through the remainder of the period. As a result, predictability is reduced.

..Wendt.. 06/26/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Friday, July 3

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, June 29	15%
Day 5	Tuesday, June 30	predictability too low
Day 6	Wednesday, July 1	predictability too low
Day 7	Thursday, July 2	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, July 3	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260857 SPC AC 260857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Valid 291200Z - 041200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper-level trough centered within the Intermountain West will continue pivoting northeast through the northern Plains on Monday. This feature will be fairly meridional in character. The strongest height falls are likely to occur after 00Z within North Dakota. To the east, an amplified upper ridge will be in place. Moisture advection will continue in the upper Mississippi Valley given the southerly low levels winds. Strong to extreme buoyancy is expected to develop as a result. While this pattern does suggest potential for severe weather, there is still uncertainty as to where the most favorable environment will be given the influence of convection that could occur late on Sunday night into early Monday morning. The 15% area has been maintained this cycle given the potential for a an MCS to develop, but modification seems likely in the coming days given the mesoscale details that will play a large role in where severe weather ultimately occurs.

From Tuesday onward, the strongest mid-level flow will shift into Canada as the western upper trough becomes more broad. A large reservoir of strong to extreme buoyancy is still forecast to be in place underneath the ridge. While areas of severe weather are possible, they will be highly tied to mesoscale features as larger scale features will become more nebulous and deep-layer shear will weaken through the remainder of the period. As a result, predictability is reduced.

..Wendt.. 06/26/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

National Risk Overview

Friday, June 26: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Saturday, June 27: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Sunday, June 28: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Monday, June 29: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Tuesday, June 30: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, July 1: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, July 2: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, July 3: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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