Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, October 21
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms with a potential for large hail, severe wind gusts and a couple tornadoes are expected today along the Mogollon Rim across parts of Arizona. Marginally severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat will also be possible along the southern and central California Coast.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 30%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 210551
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms with a potential for large hail, severe wind gusts and a couple tornadoes are expected today along the Mogollon Rim across parts of Arizona. Marginally severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat will also be possible along the southern and central California Coast.
DISCUSSION
An upper-level low will approach the California Coast today, as southwesterly divergent flow aloft remains in place over much of the Southwest. Ahead of the system, low-level moisture will advect northward into the Desert Southwest today. An axis with surface dewpoints in the 60s F will set up to the southwest of the Mogollon Rim across southern, central and western Arizona. By afternoon, MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range along and near the moist axis. Over the top of the moist and unstable airmass, strong mid-level southwesterly flow will be in place. Moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear will support a substantial severe threat with storms that develop along the Mogollon Rim from this afternoon into the evening, near the northern edge of the stronger instability.
As the upper-level system approaches, a 50 to 70 knot mid-level jet will overspread the Desert Southwest today. RAP forecast soundings within the exit region of the jet over north-central Arizona in the mid to late afternoon have gradually veering winds with height and 50 to 60 knots of 0-6 km shear. In addition, steep mid-level lapse rates and long hodographs are evident which will result in a potential for supercells with large hail. The strongest cells could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. Forecast soundings also have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 175 to 250 m2/s2 range late this afternoon along parts of the Mogollon Rim suggesting that the stronger supercells will be capable of tornadoes. The severe threat is expected to persist from mid afternoon into the evening, with a potential for two rounds of severe storms impacting parts of north-central Arizona.
Coast of Southern and Central California
A large upper-level low pressure system will move toward the California Coast today. The left exit region of a mid-level jet will approach the southern and central California Coast. A wave of precipitation associated with this feature will move to the southern and central California Coast this afternoon. Instability along the coast will be sufficient for thunderstorm development. RAP forecast soundings along the coast this afternoon have strong deep-layer shear, which will support the development of low-topped supercells. Some model forecasts have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 200 m2/s2 near the coast suggesting that an isolated tornado threat will be possible. Any cells that rotate and move onshore could also be associated with isolated severe wind gusts as well.
..Broyles/Leitman.. 10/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Thursday, October 22
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Southwest and Four Corners area on Thursday, with the greatest risk across parts of Arizona. All severe hazards will be possible.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 210547
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ARIZONA INTO FAR WESTERN NEW MEXICO
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Southwest and Four Corners area on Thursday, with the greatest risk across parts of Arizona. All severe hazards will be possible.
Synopsis
A broad longwave mid-level trough will traverse the western CONUS on Thursday, encouraging continued deep-layer ascent amid the northward advection of low-level moisture, promoting scattered to widespread thunderstorm development. At least isolated severe thunderstorms are possible spanning the Desert Southwest into the Great Basin given overlapping marginal buoyancy and widespread strong wind fields aloft. However, across portions of the Desert Southwest, an embedded mid-level impulse accompanied by a 500 mb speed max atop locally higher low-level moisture/instability may promote a more focused risk of severe thunderstorms.
Desert Southwest into the Great Basin
Deep-layer ascent, combined with at least some degree of surface heating ahead of the broader upper trough, will support scattered thunderstorm development over the Great Basin during the afternoon. Largely unidirectional (southerly) tropospheric flow will yield highly elongated, straight hodographs and over 50 kts of effective bulk (speed) shear. Given 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates and around 500 J/kg MLCAPE, transient supercells and small line segments will be the main storm modes, accompanied by an isolated severe gust/hail threat.
Farther south into central AZ to far western NM, a 70+ kt 500 mb southwesterly speed max with 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates will overspread southeasterly low-level flow and low to mid 60s F surface dewpoints. This ambient environment, as shown by forecast soundings, will yield modestly elongated hodographs, but with appreciable size and curvature at the low-levels. Given locally higher moisture, up to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE may be realized in tandem with 50+ kts of effective bulk shear and over 200 m2/s2 of effective SRH. While CAM guidance consensus depicts a complex storm mode and several potential cellular interactions, longer-lived, embedded supercell structures are possible. Should such storms develop, all severe hazards will be possible, including a couple of tornadoes.
..Squitieri.. 10/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Friday, October 23
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, October 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, October 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200757 SPC AC 200757
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough will gradually de-amplify while ejecting into the central and northern Plains this weekend. Thunderstorms will be likely this weekend into early next week from the Desert Southwest into the Plains states. The best chance for isolated severe thunderstorms will be Days 4-5 (Friday-Saturday), when stronger forcing for ascent will coincide with better moisture/instability over the Desert Southwest. Thereafter, buoyancy and upper support will become increasingly decoupled with mid-level trough ejection into the Plains.
Through much of next week, increasingly positively tilted upper troughing over the eastern CONUS will yield a northwesterly upper flow regime across most of the CONUS east of the Rockies. A relatively cool and/or stable airmass will overspread most of the CONUS, with no clear signal of an organized severe threat, as also supported by ML/AI guidance consensus.
..Squitieri.. 10/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, October 24
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, October 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, October 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200757 SPC AC 200757
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough will gradually de-amplify while ejecting into the central and northern Plains this weekend. Thunderstorms will be likely this weekend into early next week from the Desert Southwest into the Plains states. The best chance for isolated severe thunderstorms will be Days 4-5 (Friday-Saturday), when stronger forcing for ascent will coincide with better moisture/instability over the Desert Southwest. Thereafter, buoyancy and upper support will become increasingly decoupled with mid-level trough ejection into the Plains.
Through much of next week, increasingly positively tilted upper troughing over the eastern CONUS will yield a northwesterly upper flow regime across most of the CONUS east of the Rockies. A relatively cool and/or stable airmass will overspread most of the CONUS, with no clear signal of an organized severe threat, as also supported by ML/AI guidance consensus.
..Squitieri.. 10/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, October 25
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, October 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, October 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200757 SPC AC 200757
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough will gradually de-amplify while ejecting into the central and northern Plains this weekend. Thunderstorms will be likely this weekend into early next week from the Desert Southwest into the Plains states. The best chance for isolated severe thunderstorms will be Days 4-5 (Friday-Saturday), when stronger forcing for ascent will coincide with better moisture/instability over the Desert Southwest. Thereafter, buoyancy and upper support will become increasingly decoupled with mid-level trough ejection into the Plains.
Through much of next week, increasingly positively tilted upper troughing over the eastern CONUS will yield a northwesterly upper flow regime across most of the CONUS east of the Rockies. A relatively cool and/or stable airmass will overspread most of the CONUS, with no clear signal of an organized severe threat, as also supported by ML/AI guidance consensus.
..Squitieri.. 10/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, October 26
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, October 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, October 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200757 SPC AC 200757
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough will gradually de-amplify while ejecting into the central and northern Plains this weekend. Thunderstorms will be likely this weekend into early next week from the Desert Southwest into the Plains states. The best chance for isolated severe thunderstorms will be Days 4-5 (Friday-Saturday), when stronger forcing for ascent will coincide with better moisture/instability over the Desert Southwest. Thereafter, buoyancy and upper support will become increasingly decoupled with mid-level trough ejection into the Plains.
Through much of next week, increasingly positively tilted upper troughing over the eastern CONUS will yield a northwesterly upper flow regime across most of the CONUS east of the Rockies. A relatively cool and/or stable airmass will overspread most of the CONUS, with no clear signal of an organized severe threat, as also supported by ML/AI guidance consensus.
..Squitieri.. 10/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, October 27
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, October 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, October 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200757 SPC AC 200757
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough will gradually de-amplify while ejecting into the central and northern Plains this weekend. Thunderstorms will be likely this weekend into early next week from the Desert Southwest into the Plains states. The best chance for isolated severe thunderstorms will be Days 4-5 (Friday-Saturday), when stronger forcing for ascent will coincide with better moisture/instability over the Desert Southwest. Thereafter, buoyancy and upper support will become increasingly decoupled with mid-level trough ejection into the Plains.
Through much of next week, increasingly positively tilted upper troughing over the eastern CONUS will yield a northwesterly upper flow regime across most of the CONUS east of the Rockies. A relatively cool and/or stable airmass will overspread most of the CONUS, with no clear signal of an organized severe threat, as also supported by ML/AI guidance consensus.
..Squitieri.. 10/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, October 21
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 30%
- WIND: 15%
- Thursday, October 22
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Friday, October 23
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, October 24
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, October 25
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, October 26
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, October 27
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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