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Multiple rounds of severe storms through this evening will yield potential for scattered to widespread damaging winds and a few strong tornadoes from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic States.

Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Monday, March 16
Tuesday, March 17
Wednesday, March 18
Thursday, March 19
Friday, March 20
Saturday, March 21
Sunday, March 22
Monday, March 23

Outlook for Monday, March 16

Outlook Summary

Multiple rounds of severe storms through this evening will yield potential for scattered to widespread damaging winds and a few strong tornadoes from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic States.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 10%

wind 60%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 161628

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Valid 161630Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA…NORTH CAROLINA…VIRGINIA…WASHINGTON D.C. AND MARYLAND

### SUMMARY

Multiple rounds of severe storms through this evening will yield potential for scattered to widespread damaging winds and a few strong tornadoes from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic States.

Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast

Large-scale outflow from ongoing broken linear bands along with a separate swath of convection with the low-level warm conveyor have greatly hampered the amplitude of diurnal destabilization across the Carolinas to the DE Valley. Primary severe threat should remain with the pre-frontal linear bands as they spread east-northeast this afternoon. Some intensification may yet occur across eastern SC/southern NC within pockets of low 70s surface temperatures. See MCDs 272-273 for additional storm-term discussion.

Farther north, a pre-frontal low-topped convective line is evolving across central PA. This should be the primary driver of afternoon severe potential northeastward into parts of NY as mid 50s to low 60s surface dew points remain prevalent just ahead of this line. Within a deeply meridional wind profile, damaging winds and embedded tornadoes will be the main hazards. This activity should remain spatially confined by a lack of downstream boundary-layer destabilization over eastern NY into New England.

In the wake of this leading activity, a second round of low-topped convection will likely reform east of the Blue Ridge into the Piedmont towards late afternoon/early evening. Prior overturning and persistent cloud coverage should mitigate appreciable boundary-layer destabilization. However, robust large-scale ascent and intensifying lower-level winds will accompany the ejection of a 100+ kt 500-mb jetlet within the basal shortwave trough. This should yield a renewed threat for damaging winds accompanying the fast-moving line. Even with meager buoyancy, another round of sporadic severe gusts should occur from NC/VA to the Chesapeake Bay/DE Valley vicinity through this evening.

GA/FL

Moderate buoyancy characterized by MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg will persist through the afternoon ahead of southwest/northeast-oriented convection. With large-scale ascent, outside of low-level convergence, becoming more focused to the north of this region, there is uncertainty on how far south an organized line will persist in the FL Peninsula. Primary severe threat should remain through mid-afternoon, with a generalized waning in southern extent this evening.

..Grams/Lyons.. 03/16/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, March 17

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorm potential appears negligible on Tuesday.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 161729

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorm potential appears negligible on Tuesday.

Discussion

With the trailing portion of a cold front expected to have exited the Eastern Seaboard by 12Z Tuesday, any lingering deep convection near the front should be relegated to the FL Straits during the mid to late morning. An expansive surface anticyclone, initially centered over far southeast TX/Lower Sabine Valley vicinity, will maintain a pervasive continental air mass across the northern Gulf. Conditions will be too hostile for lightning-producing convection across the CONUS through the period.

..Grams.. 03/16/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, March 18

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms are not forecast for Wednesday.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 160548

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms are not forecast for Wednesday.

Synopsis

On Wednesday, an upper ridge will build over the Southwest, with a large-scale trough across over the East. High pressure over the Southeast will maintain stable conditions, with generally offshore winds across the Gulf. Minimal instability may be present from the Bahamas into the FL Straits near a stalled front, with convective showers mainly offshore. Otherwise, lack of instability will preclude thunderstorms chances across the CONUS.

..Jewell.. 03/16/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Thursday, March 19

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Thursday, March 19 potential too low
Day 5 Friday, March 20 potential too low
Day 6 Saturday, March 21 potential too low
Day 7 Sunday, March 22 potential too low
Day 8 Monday, March 23 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160646 SPC AC 160646

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

DISCUSSION

A northwest flow regime will persist across the Plains through Saturday/D6 as an upper high holds over the southwestern states. The ridge is expected to break down late D6 through the remainder of the period into Monday/D8, as a strong wave moves southeastward into the Great Lakes, and a weaker wave potentially moves into the Great Basin/Four Corners states on Sunday/D7. This overall pattern will maintain relatively stable conditions over most of the CONUS, with high pressure over the southeastern states including the Gulf of America. Further, as the stronger wave potentially moves across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast, a reinforcing cold front is likely to plunge south over much of the central and eastern states into the D7/D8 time frame. While limited moisture may precede this cold front, overall potential for destabilization appears to be minimal.

..Jewell.. 03/16/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Friday, March 20

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Thursday, March 19 potential too low
Day 5 Friday, March 20 potential too low
Day 6 Saturday, March 21 potential too low
Day 7 Sunday, March 22 potential too low
Day 8 Monday, March 23 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160646 SPC AC 160646

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

DISCUSSION

A northwest flow regime will persist across the Plains through Saturday/D6 as an upper high holds over the southwestern states. The ridge is expected to break down late D6 through the remainder of the period into Monday/D8, as a strong wave moves southeastward into the Great Lakes, and a weaker wave potentially moves into the Great Basin/Four Corners states on Sunday/D7. This overall pattern will maintain relatively stable conditions over most of the CONUS, with high pressure over the southeastern states including the Gulf of America. Further, as the stronger wave potentially moves across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast, a reinforcing cold front is likely to plunge south over much of the central and eastern states into the D7/D8 time frame. While limited moisture may precede this cold front, overall potential for destabilization appears to be minimal.

..Jewell.. 03/16/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, March 21

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Thursday, March 19 potential too low
Day 5 Friday, March 20 potential too low
Day 6 Saturday, March 21 potential too low
Day 7 Sunday, March 22 potential too low
Day 8 Monday, March 23 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160646 SPC AC 160646

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

DISCUSSION

A northwest flow regime will persist across the Plains through Saturday/D6 as an upper high holds over the southwestern states. The ridge is expected to break down late D6 through the remainder of the period into Monday/D8, as a strong wave moves southeastward into the Great Lakes, and a weaker wave potentially moves into the Great Basin/Four Corners states on Sunday/D7. This overall pattern will maintain relatively stable conditions over most of the CONUS, with high pressure over the southeastern states including the Gulf of America. Further, as the stronger wave potentially moves across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast, a reinforcing cold front is likely to plunge south over much of the central and eastern states into the D7/D8 time frame. While limited moisture may precede this cold front, overall potential for destabilization appears to be minimal.

..Jewell.. 03/16/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, March 22

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Thursday, March 19 potential too low
Day 5 Friday, March 20 potential too low
Day 6 Saturday, March 21 potential too low
Day 7 Sunday, March 22 potential too low
Day 8 Monday, March 23 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160646 SPC AC 160646

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

DISCUSSION

A northwest flow regime will persist across the Plains through Saturday/D6 as an upper high holds over the southwestern states. The ridge is expected to break down late D6 through the remainder of the period into Monday/D8, as a strong wave moves southeastward into the Great Lakes, and a weaker wave potentially moves into the Great Basin/Four Corners states on Sunday/D7. This overall pattern will maintain relatively stable conditions over most of the CONUS, with high pressure over the southeastern states including the Gulf of America. Further, as the stronger wave potentially moves across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast, a reinforcing cold front is likely to plunge south over much of the central and eastern states into the D7/D8 time frame. While limited moisture may precede this cold front, overall potential for destabilization appears to be minimal.

..Jewell.. 03/16/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Monday, March 23

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Thursday, March 19 potential too low
Day 5 Friday, March 20 potential too low
Day 6 Saturday, March 21 potential too low
Day 7 Sunday, March 22 potential too low
Day 8 Monday, March 23 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160646 SPC AC 160646

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

DISCUSSION

A northwest flow regime will persist across the Plains through Saturday/D6 as an upper high holds over the southwestern states. The ridge is expected to break down late D6 through the remainder of the period into Monday/D8, as a strong wave moves southeastward into the Great Lakes, and a weaker wave potentially moves into the Great Basin/Four Corners states on Sunday/D7. This overall pattern will maintain relatively stable conditions over most of the CONUS, with high pressure over the southeastern states including the Gulf of America. Further, as the stronger wave potentially moves across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast, a reinforcing cold front is likely to plunge south over much of the central and eastern states into the D7/D8 time frame. While limited moisture may precede this cold front, overall potential for destabilization appears to be minimal.

..Jewell.. 03/16/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

National Risk Overview

Monday, March 16
TORNADO: 10%
HAIL: 5%
WIND: 60%
Tuesday, March 17
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: low
Wednesday, March 18
ANY SEVERE: low
Thursday, March 19
ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, March 20
ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, March 21
ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, March 22
ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, March 23
ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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