Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, August 8
Outlook Summary
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable primarily of damaging gusts will be possible today from the Mid-Atlantic states into southwest New England. Isolated instances of large to very large hail will be possible across the northern Plains.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 081919
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sat Aug 08 2026
Valid 082000Z - 091200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHEAST NEW YORK AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS
### SUMMARY
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable primarily of damaging gusts will be possible today from the Mid-Atlantic states into southwest New England. Isolated instances of large to very large hail will be possible across the northern Plains.
20z Update
Adjustments were made to remove the Slight/Marginal risks across portions of the Northeast behind ongoing convection. Widely scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging wind will continue in the remaining risk area though the afternoon.
In the northern Plains/Midwest, a conditional risk for significant hail was added with this update across portions of the Dakotas into western Minnesota. As thunderstorms develop late this evening near the nose of the nocturnal low-level jet, forecast soundings suggest that moderate to strong cape and steep low to mid-level lapse rates will be in place amid strong deep layer shear profiles. This will support potential for a few initial supercells capable of large to very large hail (some 2+ inches in diameter). This threat should remain isolated enough to preclude higher outlook probabilities.
See previous discussion below for more information.
..Thornton.. 08/08/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Sat Aug 08 2026/
Northeast States
Morning water vapor imagery shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough over OH tracking eastward. A warm/moist air mass is present ahead of the trough, with pockets of MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg expected later today. Large scale forcing associated with the trough is rather weak, and overall coverage of storms may be rather isolated. However, stronger winds aloft than yesterday suggest a conditional risk of wind damage with any sustained storm later today. Have extended the SLGT risk area a little farther north into NY/MA where morning model guidance suggests higher coverage/confidence in storms. Have also extended the MRGL farther west into OH beneath the upper trough where widely scattered storms may also produce gusty/damaging winds.
Western NC
A few afternoon thunderstorms are expected to form off the mountains of western NC and vicinity, and track slowly southeastward. Strong daytime heating, humid conditions, and sufficient CAPE may promote a risk of gusty/damaging winds in the strongest cores.
North TX
Isolated thunderstorms are expected to form along an E-W axis across north TX this afternoon in a hot/humid air mass. The strongest of these slow-moving cells may produce damaging winds.
NE/KS
A cluster of strong thunderstorms is ongoing over central NE. This activity may persist into the afternoon, tracking southeastward toward northeast KS/northwest MO. Given the corridor of high CAPE in this zone, a few strong/severe storms capable of damaging winds and hail are possible.
ND/SD/MN/IA
A strengthening southerly low-level jet will likely lead to scattered thunderstorms tonight after midnight over central ND. These storms are expected to develop southeastward into parts of SD/MN/IA before 12z. Relatively strong vertical shear will support supercells capable of hail and damaging winds.
AZ
Full sunshine and sufficient CAPE will once again promote thunderstorm develop off the Mogollon Rim this afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings show increasing mid-level moisture through the evening as an upper trough passes to the south, perhaps aiding convective maintenance westward into the lower elevations. If so, given the favorable steering flow, strong/severe outflow winds could spread into the PHX area around 00z. This scenario will be monitored for a possible upgrade to SLGT in later outlooks.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Sunday, August 9
Outlook Summary
Scattered damaging winds may occur Sunday from eastern Iowa across northern Illinois and Indiana. A concentrated area of damaging wind and hail is also expected over much of South Dakota.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 081734
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 PM CDT Sat Aug 08 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA…AND FROM EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHERN INDIANA
### SUMMARY
Scattered damaging winds may occur Sunday from eastern Iowa across northern Illinois and Indiana. A concentrated area of damaging wind and hail is also expected over much of South Dakota.
From eastern IA into northern IN
Storms, possibly producing strong wind gusts, may be ongoing over much of the area Sunday morning. This potentially severe activity could persist for much of the day as it travels southeastward with access to a destabilizing air mass.
Behind the early activity, strong instability will develop as low-level winds remain out of the southwest. While mid to upper level winds will not be particularly strong, the veering low-level winds and likelihood of redevelopment along any outflow boundaries suggests additional severe storms during the late afternoon, moving across much of the same areas as the early day storms. Damaging winds appear to be the primary concern, however, a brief tornado cannot be ruled out early in the redevelopment cycle as low-level instability will be large, with perhaps enhanced low-level shear near residual outflows.
Dakotas
Moderate northwest flow aloft will persist over the region, with surface winds veering to east/southeast late in the day. A moist plume should be maintained over SD within the recovering warm advection regime, with evening 850 mb winds also increasing out of the south. Surface based storms are expected to develop into much of SD, with an initial large hail threat. With time, an MCS could develop, producing a swath of damaging winds. Isolated significant wind gusts cannot be ruled out.
..Southern AZ
Easterly flow aloft around the upper high will support a westward component to the storms motions on Sunday, possibly bringing locally strong gusts into the lower elevations as storms move out of Mexico, and possibly off the Rim. Substantial PWAT will remain over the region with 60s F dewpoints which when combined with steep low-level lapse rates will support afternoon storms and locally severe gusts.
Southern Appalachians
Storms will form over the higher terrain Sunday afternoon from northern GA into the western Carolinas. Given sufficient storm concentration, a few damaging gusts cannot be ruled out as storms and outflows generally spread eastward into the diurnally heating air mass.
..Jewell.. 08/08/2026
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Monday, August 10
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible on Monday from northern Illinois eastward into western Pennsylvania. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible from parts of the central and northern Plains into the Midwest.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 081931
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Sat Aug 08 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM ILLINOIS EASTWARD INTO PENNSYLVANIA
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible on Monday from northern Illinois eastward into western Pennsylvania. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible from parts of the central and northern Plains into the Midwest.
Midwest / OH Valley / Mid Atlantic
An elongated zone of damaging wind potential will exist on Monday from Illinois to the Mid Atlantic, with various clusters of storms throughout the period.
Earlier in the day, it appears ongoing activity may be present around OH, with moderate 40+ kt midlevel westerlies pushing the activity toward the Mid Atlantic during the afternoon. There, it could encounter the destabilizing air mass, with possible new development and/or rejuvenation with damaging gust potential.
Farther west, a large area of strong instability is forecast across the Midwest, with an east-west oriented boundary roughly from IA across northern IL/IN/OH. Parts of this boundary may be re-positioned depending on the extent of early day outflows.
West to southwest 850 mb winds over 30 kt should help maintain low-level moisture/heat flux into the frontal zone, with new development most likely across the Slight Risk area from northern IL into OH. Corridors of damaging winds will be possible with the resulting clusters or MCS, possibly affecting northern KY into WV. Predictability remains fairly low or this pattern.
Northern Plains
Low pressure is forecast to develop over the central Plain, while moisture and backed surface winds persist generally north of I-80. Strong heating and surface convergence should support afternoon development over western SD, and perhaps elevated storms later over ND. Isolated severe gusts or hail will be possible over SD and vicinity, perhaps into northern NE and western IA overnight. A targeted Slight Risk may be needed in later updates as predictability increases.
..Jewell.. 08/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Tuesday, August 11
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, August 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, August 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, August 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, August 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, August 15 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080855 SPC AC 080855
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Sat Aug 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5
A broad cyclonic mid-level flow pattern is forecast from the upper Mississippi Valley into the Northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast to be in place over most of the eastern half of the nation with a quasi-stationary front located from the northern Plains east-southeastward into the southern Great Lakes. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints in the 70s F will likely result in the development of moderate to strong instability. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop each afternoon in areas where low-level convergence becomes maximized. Outflow boundaries will be important in determining where the greatest convective coverage ends up being. In addition to the instability, moderate deep-layer shear is forecast over much of this moist airmass suggesting that an isolated wind-damage threat will be possible. However, the lack of any appreciable mid-level shortwave trough introduces considerable uncertainty.
Thursday/Day 6 and Saturday/Day 8
From Thursday to Saturday, mid-level flow is forecast to become westerly over much of the northern U.S, with a front located from the central Plains eastward into the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible each afternoon and evening near this front. Surface dewpoints in the 70s F to the south of the front, along with moderate to strong instability will make isolated severe thunderstorms possible each afternoon and evening. However, spatial uncertainty concerning any potential severe threat is considerable at this range.
..Broyles.. 08/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, August 12
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, August 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, August 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, August 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, August 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, August 15 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080855 SPC AC 080855
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Sat Aug 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5
A broad cyclonic mid-level flow pattern is forecast from the upper Mississippi Valley into the Northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast to be in place over most of the eastern half of the nation with a quasi-stationary front located from the northern Plains east-southeastward into the southern Great Lakes. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints in the 70s F will likely result in the development of moderate to strong instability. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop each afternoon in areas where low-level convergence becomes maximized. Outflow boundaries will be important in determining where the greatest convective coverage ends up being. In addition to the instability, moderate deep-layer shear is forecast over much of this moist airmass suggesting that an isolated wind-damage threat will be possible. However, the lack of any appreciable mid-level shortwave trough introduces considerable uncertainty.
Thursday/Day 6 and Saturday/Day 8
From Thursday to Saturday, mid-level flow is forecast to become westerly over much of the northern U.S, with a front located from the central Plains eastward into the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible each afternoon and evening near this front. Surface dewpoints in the 70s F to the south of the front, along with moderate to strong instability will make isolated severe thunderstorms possible each afternoon and evening. However, spatial uncertainty concerning any potential severe threat is considerable at this range.
..Broyles.. 08/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, August 13
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, August 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, August 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, August 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, August 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, August 15 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080855 SPC AC 080855
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Sat Aug 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5
A broad cyclonic mid-level flow pattern is forecast from the upper Mississippi Valley into the Northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast to be in place over most of the eastern half of the nation with a quasi-stationary front located from the northern Plains east-southeastward into the southern Great Lakes. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints in the 70s F will likely result in the development of moderate to strong instability. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop each afternoon in areas where low-level convergence becomes maximized. Outflow boundaries will be important in determining where the greatest convective coverage ends up being. In addition to the instability, moderate deep-layer shear is forecast over much of this moist airmass suggesting that an isolated wind-damage threat will be possible. However, the lack of any appreciable mid-level shortwave trough introduces considerable uncertainty.
Thursday/Day 6 and Saturday/Day 8
From Thursday to Saturday, mid-level flow is forecast to become westerly over much of the northern U.S, with a front located from the central Plains eastward into the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible each afternoon and evening near this front. Surface dewpoints in the 70s F to the south of the front, along with moderate to strong instability will make isolated severe thunderstorms possible each afternoon and evening. However, spatial uncertainty concerning any potential severe threat is considerable at this range.
..Broyles.. 08/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, August 14
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, August 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, August 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, August 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, August 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, August 15 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080855 SPC AC 080855
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Sat Aug 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5
A broad cyclonic mid-level flow pattern is forecast from the upper Mississippi Valley into the Northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast to be in place over most of the eastern half of the nation with a quasi-stationary front located from the northern Plains east-southeastward into the southern Great Lakes. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints in the 70s F will likely result in the development of moderate to strong instability. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop each afternoon in areas where low-level convergence becomes maximized. Outflow boundaries will be important in determining where the greatest convective coverage ends up being. In addition to the instability, moderate deep-layer shear is forecast over much of this moist airmass suggesting that an isolated wind-damage threat will be possible. However, the lack of any appreciable mid-level shortwave trough introduces considerable uncertainty.
Thursday/Day 6 and Saturday/Day 8
From Thursday to Saturday, mid-level flow is forecast to become westerly over much of the northern U.S, with a front located from the central Plains eastward into the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible each afternoon and evening near this front. Surface dewpoints in the 70s F to the south of the front, along with moderate to strong instability will make isolated severe thunderstorms possible each afternoon and evening. However, spatial uncertainty concerning any potential severe threat is considerable at this range.
..Broyles.. 08/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, August 15
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, August 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, August 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, August 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, August 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, August 15 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080855 SPC AC 080855
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Sat Aug 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5
A broad cyclonic mid-level flow pattern is forecast from the upper Mississippi Valley into the Northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast to be in place over most of the eastern half of the nation with a quasi-stationary front located from the northern Plains east-southeastward into the southern Great Lakes. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints in the 70s F will likely result in the development of moderate to strong instability. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop each afternoon in areas where low-level convergence becomes maximized. Outflow boundaries will be important in determining where the greatest convective coverage ends up being. In addition to the instability, moderate deep-layer shear is forecast over much of this moist airmass suggesting that an isolated wind-damage threat will be possible. However, the lack of any appreciable mid-level shortwave trough introduces considerable uncertainty.
Thursday/Day 6 and Saturday/Day 8
From Thursday to Saturday, mid-level flow is forecast to become westerly over much of the northern U.S, with a front located from the central Plains eastward into the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible each afternoon and evening near this front. Surface dewpoints in the 70s F to the south of the front, along with moderate to strong instability will make isolated severe thunderstorms possible each afternoon and evening. However, spatial uncertainty concerning any potential severe threat is considerable at this range.
..Broyles.. 08/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, August 8
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Sunday, August 9
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Monday, August 10
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Tuesday, August 11
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, August 12
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, August 13
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, August 14
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, August 15
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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