Severe Weather Outlook
Hayley here - Do you want to see severe weather in your calendar?
* it's like an add-on for your digital calendar NOT a paper calendar
National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, April 21
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are expected today over much of Texas, from Illinois into Ohio, and over portions of central California. Severe weather is not currently forecast.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 210537
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are expected today over much of Texas, from Illinois into Ohio, and over portions of central California. Severe weather is not currently forecast.
Synopsis
An upper ridge will move into the Plains as an upper trough moves inland over the West, with a strong cyclonic speed max moving across CA and into the Great Basin. Meanwhile, northwest flow aloft will extend from the Great Lakes into the Mid Atlantic. Farther south, a weakening disturbance will move out of TX and toward the lower MS Valley.
At the surface, high pressure will remain over much of the eastern states and across the Gulf Coast. Southerly winds across the Plains and around this high may support mid to upper 50s F dewpoints as far north as IA and IL by 00Z, while higher dewpoints remain relegated to southern TX. Here, scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early on Tuesday where weak elevated instability will remain.
IL/IN/OH
A surface trough is forecast to develop from Lower MI into southern WI and northern IL by late afternoon, beneath the northwest flow regime and with cool midlevel temperatures. Southwest surface winds and daytime heating should lead to 40s and 50s F dewpoints, with a relatively dry boundary layer overall. Models suggest at least isolated late day and evening thunderstorms will develop ahead of this trough, though instability levels are uncertain. Despite marginal dewpoints/moisture, the cool temperatures aloft may support a few cells capable of small hail from IL into IN by late afternoon. Wind gust potential is more uncertain and dependent on storm coverage/outflow production, with the dry boundary layer conditionally helping strong gust potential into the evening and perhaps overnight.
Central CA
Cold temperatures aloft north of the midlevel jet will support weak instability over parts of the central Valleys. Given early precipitation and clouds, as well as marginal low-level shear, severe storms appear unlikely. However, a few strong storms may occur late in the afternoon if sufficient heating occurs behind the early day rain. Small hail appears most probable with the strongest cells.
..Jewell.. 04/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Wednesday, April 22
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms capable of hail and gusty winds may develop during the late afternoon and evening on Wednesday across portions of the High Plains.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 210553
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms capable of hail and gusty winds may develop during the late afternoon and evening on Wednesday across portions of the High Plains.
Synopsis
A closed upper low across the western US will devolve into an open wave as it lifts northeast toward the northern Plains. At the same time, a surface low will gradually deepen as it moves across northern Montana east into North Dakota by Thursday morning.
Lee troughing will strengthen during the day with the approach of the western trough. The surface wind field within this lee trough will function to sharpen a dryline from the surface low south across much of the High Plains. To the east of the dryline, strengthening southerly winds will draw Gulf moisture northward into the strengthening cyclone. The quality of this moisture return remains a significant source of uncertainty regarding thunderstorm chances with northward extent.
Northern High Plains including areas of eastern Montana
By late afternoon increasing large-scale ascent, driven by modest height falls, will overspread northern portions of the dryline. Despite moisture concerns, isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop across portions of the dryline during the afternoon. Large temperature/dewpoint spreads may support strong wind gusts with the strongest storms.
The best synoptic scale forcing for ascent will move across portions of eastern Montana during the late afternoon and evening. Should boundary layer moisture be richer than currently anticipated (e.g., closer to 40F than 25F), a threat for marginally severe wind gusts may materialize. This area will continued to be assessed in subsequent outlooks for an upgrade to Level 1/Marginal.
Southern High Plains
Midlevel height falls will not be as great here as compared to areas farther north. However, richer boundary layer moisture and strong dryline circulations aided by temperatures approaching 90F to the west of the dryline should support at least isolated thunderstorm development. Around 40 knots of cloud-layer shear should support at least a marginal hail risk with any storm that develops.
..Marsh.. 04/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Thursday, April 23
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms will be possible from northern Oklahoma into southern Minnesota on Thursday. Large hail to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 210738
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
CORRECTED FOR TEXTUAL CLARITY
SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms will be possible from northern Oklahoma into southern Minnesota on Thursday. Large hail to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible.
Synopsis
A complex convective setup is expected on Thursday as a broad, long-wave trough remains anchored across the Western US. While the initial/primary shortwave will be lifting northward into Canada, a secondary, lower amplitude wave is progged to approach the Southern Plains overnight Thursday into Friday.
At the surface, a Pacific cold front and dryline will push eastward into the Central Plains. A secondary surface low is forecast to develop near the triple point in northwest Oklahoma/southwest Kansas. This feature will serve as the southern extent of the more organized severe threat, with a conditional threat southward along the dryline.
Central Plains
Thunderstorms are expected to develop along an advancing cold front/dryline across portions eastern Nebraska into western Iowa, before expanding both north and south. MUCAPE values between 1500-2500 J/kg and deep-layer shear on the order of 30-40 knots will support supercellular structures initially, but unidirectional profiles may favor splitting supercells, storm interference, and a tendency for upscale growth into one or more linear segments. While a few tornadoes may be possible early in the convective evolution, large hail and damaging winds should become the dominant threat with time.
Southern Plains
Convective initiation along the dryline south of the triple point remains uncertain due to stronger capping. However, any discrete cells that manage to initiate will do so in an environment characterized by MUCAPE values between 2000-3000 J/kg with 30-40 knots of vertical shear. This will be more than sufficient to support supercells capable of very large hail.
A secondary wave should approach the region overnight Thursday into Friday morning. Forecast soundings indicate a steepening of midlevel lapse rates associated with this feature and a subsequent increase in CAPE values. Depending on the evolution of thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening, additional thunderstorms may develop overnight. The severe potential of these storms is uncertain given the overnight timing of the wave and increasing convective inhibition. However, strong vertical shear would seem to support a hail and wind threat.
Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley
As the cold front pushes into the more modest moisture and buoyancy profiles across northern Minnesota, the severe threat should be lesser than areas to the south. Still, proximity to the upper wave should support at least some threat for wind with any thunderstorms that develop.
..Marsh.. 04/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Friday, April 24
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, April 23 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Friday, April 24 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Saturday, April 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, April 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, April 27 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200858 SPC AC 200858
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
In the days preceding this forecast period, a long-wave trough will develop across the western US. This feature will persist across the western and central US through the forecast period supporting a multi-day severe weather threat across portions of the central US.
On Thursday/Day-4, a lobe of vorticity will rotate around the closed midlevel low across the northern Rockies. This will reinforce a surface cyclone as it moves north into Canada. As this low moves north, a combined dryline/cold front will move east into an increasingly moist environment across the central Plains. The airmass ahead of the front should destabilize during the day Thursday, with MUCAPE values over 1000 J/kg possible into portions of Minnesota.
Thunderstorms should develop across portions of northeast Kansas into Iowa during the late afternoon as height falls overspread the surface front. These storms should quickly build southward along the front into portions of Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Kinematic fields initially should support supercells, but midlevel flow will increasingly become parallel to the front suggesting that storms will grow upscale into one or more linear segments.
The surface front, augmented by convective outflows, will continue to push south and east into the Southern Plains and the greater ArkLaTex region overnight Thursday into Friday/Day-5 before stalling out. Forecast soundings along and ahead of the frontal boundary indicate an unstable, uncapped environment with vertical shear between 30-40 knots should support additional severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon into the evening/overnight across portions of eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas.
By Saturday/Day-6, the larger-scale flow across the southern Plains will begin to respond to a low-latitude trough moving into southern California by once again becoming increasingly southwesterly. Embedded perturbations within this southwest flow ahead of the main trough will support an ongoing severe threat across the southern Plains. However, the location of various surface boundaries (dryline, outflow, frontal) will be predicated on the evolution of prior days of convection and the timing of the aforementioned perturbations in the midlevel flow. Thus, while pattern recognition suggests severe weather will be possible on Days 6,7, and 8, certainty as to the location of greatest severe potential on any given day remains too low to highlight with unconditional probabilities at this time.
..Marsh.. 04/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, April 25
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, April 23 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Friday, April 24 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Saturday, April 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, April 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, April 27 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200858 SPC AC 200858
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
In the days preceding this forecast period, a long-wave trough will develop across the western US. This feature will persist across the western and central US through the forecast period supporting a multi-day severe weather threat across portions of the central US.
On Thursday/Day-4, a lobe of vorticity will rotate around the closed midlevel low across the northern Rockies. This will reinforce a surface cyclone as it moves north into Canada. As this low moves north, a combined dryline/cold front will move east into an increasingly moist environment across the central Plains. The airmass ahead of the front should destabilize during the day Thursday, with MUCAPE values over 1000 J/kg possible into portions of Minnesota.
Thunderstorms should develop across portions of northeast Kansas into Iowa during the late afternoon as height falls overspread the surface front. These storms should quickly build southward along the front into portions of Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Kinematic fields initially should support supercells, but midlevel flow will increasingly become parallel to the front suggesting that storms will grow upscale into one or more linear segments.
The surface front, augmented by convective outflows, will continue to push south and east into the Southern Plains and the greater ArkLaTex region overnight Thursday into Friday/Day-5 before stalling out. Forecast soundings along and ahead of the frontal boundary indicate an unstable, uncapped environment with vertical shear between 30-40 knots should support additional severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon into the evening/overnight across portions of eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas.
By Saturday/Day-6, the larger-scale flow across the southern Plains will begin to respond to a low-latitude trough moving into southern California by once again becoming increasingly southwesterly. Embedded perturbations within this southwest flow ahead of the main trough will support an ongoing severe threat across the southern Plains. However, the location of various surface boundaries (dryline, outflow, frontal) will be predicated on the evolution of prior days of convection and the timing of the aforementioned perturbations in the midlevel flow. Thus, while pattern recognition suggests severe weather will be possible on Days 6,7, and 8, certainty as to the location of greatest severe potential on any given day remains too low to highlight with unconditional probabilities at this time.
..Marsh.. 04/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, April 26
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, April 23 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Friday, April 24 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Saturday, April 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, April 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, April 27 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200858 SPC AC 200858
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
In the days preceding this forecast period, a long-wave trough will develop across the western US. This feature will persist across the western and central US through the forecast period supporting a multi-day severe weather threat across portions of the central US.
On Thursday/Day-4, a lobe of vorticity will rotate around the closed midlevel low across the northern Rockies. This will reinforce a surface cyclone as it moves north into Canada. As this low moves north, a combined dryline/cold front will move east into an increasingly moist environment across the central Plains. The airmass ahead of the front should destabilize during the day Thursday, with MUCAPE values over 1000 J/kg possible into portions of Minnesota.
Thunderstorms should develop across portions of northeast Kansas into Iowa during the late afternoon as height falls overspread the surface front. These storms should quickly build southward along the front into portions of Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Kinematic fields initially should support supercells, but midlevel flow will increasingly become parallel to the front suggesting that storms will grow upscale into one or more linear segments.
The surface front, augmented by convective outflows, will continue to push south and east into the Southern Plains and the greater ArkLaTex region overnight Thursday into Friday/Day-5 before stalling out. Forecast soundings along and ahead of the frontal boundary indicate an unstable, uncapped environment with vertical shear between 30-40 knots should support additional severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon into the evening/overnight across portions of eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas.
By Saturday/Day-6, the larger-scale flow across the southern Plains will begin to respond to a low-latitude trough moving into southern California by once again becoming increasingly southwesterly. Embedded perturbations within this southwest flow ahead of the main trough will support an ongoing severe threat across the southern Plains. However, the location of various surface boundaries (dryline, outflow, frontal) will be predicated on the evolution of prior days of convection and the timing of the aforementioned perturbations in the midlevel flow. Thus, while pattern recognition suggests severe weather will be possible on Days 6,7, and 8, certainty as to the location of greatest severe potential on any given day remains too low to highlight with unconditional probabilities at this time.
..Marsh.. 04/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, April 27
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, April 23 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Friday, April 24 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Saturday, April 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, April 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, April 27 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200858 SPC AC 200858
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
In the days preceding this forecast period, a long-wave trough will develop across the western US. This feature will persist across the western and central US through the forecast period supporting a multi-day severe weather threat across portions of the central US.
On Thursday/Day-4, a lobe of vorticity will rotate around the closed midlevel low across the northern Rockies. This will reinforce a surface cyclone as it moves north into Canada. As this low moves north, a combined dryline/cold front will move east into an increasingly moist environment across the central Plains. The airmass ahead of the front should destabilize during the day Thursday, with MUCAPE values over 1000 J/kg possible into portions of Minnesota.
Thunderstorms should develop across portions of northeast Kansas into Iowa during the late afternoon as height falls overspread the surface front. These storms should quickly build southward along the front into portions of Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Kinematic fields initially should support supercells, but midlevel flow will increasingly become parallel to the front suggesting that storms will grow upscale into one or more linear segments.
The surface front, augmented by convective outflows, will continue to push south and east into the Southern Plains and the greater ArkLaTex region overnight Thursday into Friday/Day-5 before stalling out. Forecast soundings along and ahead of the frontal boundary indicate an unstable, uncapped environment with vertical shear between 30-40 knots should support additional severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon into the evening/overnight across portions of eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas.
By Saturday/Day-6, the larger-scale flow across the southern Plains will begin to respond to a low-latitude trough moving into southern California by once again becoming increasingly southwesterly. Embedded perturbations within this southwest flow ahead of the main trough will support an ongoing severe threat across the southern Plains. However, the location of various surface boundaries (dryline, outflow, frontal) will be predicated on the evolution of prior days of convection and the timing of the aforementioned perturbations in the midlevel flow. Thus, while pattern recognition suggests severe weather will be possible on Days 6,7, and 8, certainty as to the location of greatest severe potential on any given day remains too low to highlight with unconditional probabilities at this time.
..Marsh.. 04/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, April 21
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Wednesday, April 22
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Thursday, April 23
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Friday, April 24
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Saturday, April 25
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, April 26
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, April 27
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Your Severe Outlook
Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.
Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.
Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.
About Severe Weather Outlook . com
SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.
- tornado hq - live severe weather warnings
- cyclocane - hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones
- tornado solitaire - play cards while you monitor the US severe weather threat
- tertremo - live view of earthquakes around the world
- earthquake solitaire - get live earthquake updates as you play your favorite card game