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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Saturday, July 25

Outlook Summary

Widespread severe gusts are possible across South Dakota late this afternoon through the evening.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 251637

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Valid 251630Z - 261200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA

### THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA

### SUMMARY

Widespread severe gusts are possible across South Dakota late this afternoon through the evening.

SD into adjacent parts of IA/MN

A prominent upper ridge centered over the central/southern Rockies will feature the southern periphery of appreciably strong mid to high-level flow extending from the Pacific Northwest across the northern High Plains and into the north-central states. Late morning surface analysis shows very hot temperatures ensuing across western NE into the western half of SD with richer moisture (surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F) located over the eastern half of NE/SD. Visible-satellite imagery shows some mid to high clouds across northern WY moving towards the Black Hills. This patch of clouds appears associated with a weak disturbance forecast to move into western SD later this afternoon.

Downstream across SD, forecast soundings show very steep surface to 500-mb lapse rates developing as temperatures rise into the 100s F. Expecting initially isolated to widely scattered storms to develop near the Black Hills, as convective temperatures are breached. Models show the gradual development of a cluster moving east across SD early this evening. Have increased severe-wind probabilities to account for observational and model-based trends towards an MCS capable of peak gusts in the 75-90 mph range. This activity will probably slowly weaken towards the MN/IA/SD border but perhaps continue into early overnight with a wind threat.

MT

Isolated to scattered storms will likely form near the higher terrain of southern MT later this afternoon with a gradual increase in storm coverage as this moves east during the early evening. A hot and well-mixed boundary layer will support severe gusts with the stronger cores and associated outflow. There is some indication this activity will cluster and potentially reach parts of eastern/southeast MT by the late evening.

Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes

Conditional severe potential exists across parts of the Upper Midwest spanning Minnesota to Upper Michigan into Wisconsin. Models continue to show low storm chances as mid-level heights rise through the late evening. Nonetheless, appreciable heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will result in strong potential buoyancy later today into tonight. Elongated hodographs will support organized storms capable of a wind/hail threat. Given a muted diurnal storm signal in models, the greater chance for isolated storms appears to be associated with warm advection activity late tonight.

Northeast NV/northern UT/eastern ID

Storm development is expected during the afternoon across parts of northeast Nevada, along the western periphery of the upper ridge. These storms will spread into adjacent parts of southeast Idaho and northwest Utah with time. Isolated severe gusts may accompany the stronger downdrafts.

South-central/southeast AZ

High-based convection is again expected across southeast Arizona during the afternoon, with initial downburst potential. A modest enhancement to easterly flow along the southern periphery of the upper ridge may allow for localized strong to severe wind gusts to spread westward into parts of south-central Arizona, before convection weakens tonight.

..Smith/Moore.. 07/25/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

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Outlook for Sunday, July 26

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds are possible from the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes into portions of the mid Missouri Valley on Sunday and Sunday night.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 251719

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds are possible from the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes into portions of the mid Missouri Valley on Sunday and Sunday night.

From eastern SD and NE to the Upper Great Lakes

The forecast continues to have major uncertainties regarding placement of the most likely severe storm corridors, with a wide range of model solutions. In general, the most likely threat areas include northern MN into WI and Upper MI, on the periphery of the upper ridge and where stronger winds aloft will exist coincident with strong instability, and from southeast SD into northeast NE within a super-heated surface trough.

Beneath 40-50 kt midlevel northwesterlies, areas of strong instability will develop with relatively steep midlevel lapse rates and 70s F dewpoints, from parts of MN into WI. Models suggest various storm clusters are possible late in the day, and these would travel quickly southeastward with damaging wind and hail likely. Some severe activity could potentially push south of the Slight Risk area into more of northern IL, IN, and Lower MI. However, the instability gradient will be a limiting factor for eastward extent.

Clusters of storms, possibly forming into a small MCS, are also expected where very hot temperatures develop into SD. The deeply mixed boundary layer combined with surface convergence within the low pressure trough will support afternoon development over eastern SD, with a corridor of damaging wind potential extending southeastward into eastern NE and western IA.

SC and GA

Daytime heating of a high PWAT air mass will lead to moderate instability during the afternoon. A surface trough will deepen over the central Carolinas and into eastern GA, with an uncapped air mass and weak convergence yielding scattered storms. Shear will be weak, but modest northwest flow aloft should support corridors of damaging wind gusts as storms develop southeastward toward the coast.

..Jewell.. 07/25/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Monday, July 27

Outlook Summary

Severe storms capable of damaging winds and large hail are possible across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley Monday into Monday night.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 251925

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Severe storms capable of damaging winds and large hail are possible across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley Monday into Monday night.

Great Lakes to Ohio Valley

A large upper ridge will hold over the Rockies and into the Plains, with a moderate northwest flow regime from the Upper MS Valley and Great Lakes into the OH Valley/Appalachians. While embedded perturbations will exist during the day, the most prominent height falls will occur Monday night over the Great Lakes.

At the surface, low pressure will develop late in the day from WI into Lower MI, with a cold front pushing south overnight trailing southwestward into northern IL. A moist and unstable air mass will redevelop and push eastward across the region late in the day and overnight as 850 mb winds near 40 kt develop out of the west.

Some ongoing activity may be present from Upper MI into WI, and this could either persist or strengthen during the day as the system develops southeastward. Deep-layer shear of 40-50 kt along with the strong instability could support a southward-moving MCS capable of damaging winds, perhaps with significant gusts. Will maintain current Slight Risk due to uncertainty, but higher probabilities could be needed in later outlooks.

Eastern WY into western NE

Beneath the upper ridge, eastern low-level winds in a post frontal regime will aid westward moistening, with marginal instability. A deep mixed boundary layer will favor damaging wind gusts with activity that develops in the uncapped air mass during the late afternoon. Modest westerlies aloft and weak low-level easterlies should favor southeastward-moving storms with locally severe outflow winds.

..Jewell.. 07/25/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, July 28

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250845 SPC AC 250845

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Valid 281200Z - 021200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Tuesday

An upper low is forecast to develop from southwest ON into the northern Mid-Atlantic with an attending belt of 35-45 kt mid-level flow extending from the OH Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cyclone will remain vertically aligned with the upper low, while a trailing cold front advances through the upper OH and TN Valleys into the Mid-Atlantic, Carolinas, and Gulf Coast states. A lee trough is expected to develop ahead of the cold front along the Piedmont Tuesday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms (some potentially strong) are expected to be ongoing Tuesday morning from the upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic, aided by forcing for ascent ahead of the upper low and low-level warm air and moisture advection along a 30-40 kt low-level jet. That activity is expected to linger into the afternoon from NY and PA into western New England, which will limit the potential for air mass destabilization in those areas. Stronger daytime heating appears possible south of the Mason-Dixon Line, where moderate instability is forecast across the pre-frontal warm sector.

Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity during the afternoon along the cold front and lee trough from the Delmarva into central Appalachians and VA/NC Piedmont. The moderate instability combined with 35-40 kt of deep-layer shear will support organized storm modes with the primary hazard being damaging wind gusts.

Other more isolated severe storms appear possible over the central High Plains within a low-level upslope regime.

### Day 5/Wednesday

The Day 4/Tuesday upper low is forecast to slowly drift northeast with a belt of stronger mid-level winds overspreading New England. A surface low will remain vertically aligned with the mid-level system with convergence in the vicinity of that feature and a trailing front serving as the focus for afternoon thunderstorm development. The models suggest that southern to central parts of New England may become moderately unstable, which, combined with the slight shear enhancement, may support a few strong to severe storms.

Additional strong to severe storms appear possible along a frontal zone in the Southeast, where a very moist air mass will contribute to moderate to strong instability.

Uncertainty in the extent of the severe weather threat in both areas precludes the delineation of a 15% probability contour.

### Days 6-8/Thursday through Saturday

The 00Z ensemble means are in reasonably good agreement in depicting the retrogression of the upper high from the Southern Rockies into the lower CO Valley. A concurrent weakening and broadening of the eastern CONUS trough is also forecast. There is a model signal for a stronger mid-level system to move into BC and the Pacific Northwest by Day 8/Saturday. Deterministic guidance indicates a series of weak disturbances tracking from the northern Plains to along and east of the MS Valley during this time period with sporadic occurrences of severe weather possible. However, the large-scale pattern currently appears unsupportive of an organized severe weather episode.

..Mead.. 07/25/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, July 29

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250845 SPC AC 250845

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Valid 281200Z - 021200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Tuesday

An upper low is forecast to develop from southwest ON into the northern Mid-Atlantic with an attending belt of 35-45 kt mid-level flow extending from the OH Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cyclone will remain vertically aligned with the upper low, while a trailing cold front advances through the upper OH and TN Valleys into the Mid-Atlantic, Carolinas, and Gulf Coast states. A lee trough is expected to develop ahead of the cold front along the Piedmont Tuesday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms (some potentially strong) are expected to be ongoing Tuesday morning from the upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic, aided by forcing for ascent ahead of the upper low and low-level warm air and moisture advection along a 30-40 kt low-level jet. That activity is expected to linger into the afternoon from NY and PA into western New England, which will limit the potential for air mass destabilization in those areas. Stronger daytime heating appears possible south of the Mason-Dixon Line, where moderate instability is forecast across the pre-frontal warm sector.

Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity during the afternoon along the cold front and lee trough from the Delmarva into central Appalachians and VA/NC Piedmont. The moderate instability combined with 35-40 kt of deep-layer shear will support organized storm modes with the primary hazard being damaging wind gusts.

Other more isolated severe storms appear possible over the central High Plains within a low-level upslope regime.

### Day 5/Wednesday

The Day 4/Tuesday upper low is forecast to slowly drift northeast with a belt of stronger mid-level winds overspreading New England. A surface low will remain vertically aligned with the mid-level system with convergence in the vicinity of that feature and a trailing front serving as the focus for afternoon thunderstorm development. The models suggest that southern to central parts of New England may become moderately unstable, which, combined with the slight shear enhancement, may support a few strong to severe storms.

Additional strong to severe storms appear possible along a frontal zone in the Southeast, where a very moist air mass will contribute to moderate to strong instability.

Uncertainty in the extent of the severe weather threat in both areas precludes the delineation of a 15% probability contour.

### Days 6-8/Thursday through Saturday

The 00Z ensemble means are in reasonably good agreement in depicting the retrogression of the upper high from the Southern Rockies into the lower CO Valley. A concurrent weakening and broadening of the eastern CONUS trough is also forecast. There is a model signal for a stronger mid-level system to move into BC and the Pacific Northwest by Day 8/Saturday. Deterministic guidance indicates a series of weak disturbances tracking from the northern Plains to along and east of the MS Valley during this time period with sporadic occurrences of severe weather possible. However, the large-scale pattern currently appears unsupportive of an organized severe weather episode.

..Mead.. 07/25/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Thursday, July 30

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250845 SPC AC 250845

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Valid 281200Z - 021200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Tuesday

An upper low is forecast to develop from southwest ON into the northern Mid-Atlantic with an attending belt of 35-45 kt mid-level flow extending from the OH Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cyclone will remain vertically aligned with the upper low, while a trailing cold front advances through the upper OH and TN Valleys into the Mid-Atlantic, Carolinas, and Gulf Coast states. A lee trough is expected to develop ahead of the cold front along the Piedmont Tuesday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms (some potentially strong) are expected to be ongoing Tuesday morning from the upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic, aided by forcing for ascent ahead of the upper low and low-level warm air and moisture advection along a 30-40 kt low-level jet. That activity is expected to linger into the afternoon from NY and PA into western New England, which will limit the potential for air mass destabilization in those areas. Stronger daytime heating appears possible south of the Mason-Dixon Line, where moderate instability is forecast across the pre-frontal warm sector.

Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity during the afternoon along the cold front and lee trough from the Delmarva into central Appalachians and VA/NC Piedmont. The moderate instability combined with 35-40 kt of deep-layer shear will support organized storm modes with the primary hazard being damaging wind gusts.

Other more isolated severe storms appear possible over the central High Plains within a low-level upslope regime.

### Day 5/Wednesday

The Day 4/Tuesday upper low is forecast to slowly drift northeast with a belt of stronger mid-level winds overspreading New England. A surface low will remain vertically aligned with the mid-level system with convergence in the vicinity of that feature and a trailing front serving as the focus for afternoon thunderstorm development. The models suggest that southern to central parts of New England may become moderately unstable, which, combined with the slight shear enhancement, may support a few strong to severe storms.

Additional strong to severe storms appear possible along a frontal zone in the Southeast, where a very moist air mass will contribute to moderate to strong instability.

Uncertainty in the extent of the severe weather threat in both areas precludes the delineation of a 15% probability contour.

### Days 6-8/Thursday through Saturday

The 00Z ensemble means are in reasonably good agreement in depicting the retrogression of the upper high from the Southern Rockies into the lower CO Valley. A concurrent weakening and broadening of the eastern CONUS trough is also forecast. There is a model signal for a stronger mid-level system to move into BC and the Pacific Northwest by Day 8/Saturday. Deterministic guidance indicates a series of weak disturbances tracking from the northern Plains to along and east of the MS Valley during this time period with sporadic occurrences of severe weather possible. However, the large-scale pattern currently appears unsupportive of an organized severe weather episode.

..Mead.. 07/25/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Friday, July 31

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250845 SPC AC 250845

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Valid 281200Z - 021200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Tuesday

An upper low is forecast to develop from southwest ON into the northern Mid-Atlantic with an attending belt of 35-45 kt mid-level flow extending from the OH Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cyclone will remain vertically aligned with the upper low, while a trailing cold front advances through the upper OH and TN Valleys into the Mid-Atlantic, Carolinas, and Gulf Coast states. A lee trough is expected to develop ahead of the cold front along the Piedmont Tuesday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms (some potentially strong) are expected to be ongoing Tuesday morning from the upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic, aided by forcing for ascent ahead of the upper low and low-level warm air and moisture advection along a 30-40 kt low-level jet. That activity is expected to linger into the afternoon from NY and PA into western New England, which will limit the potential for air mass destabilization in those areas. Stronger daytime heating appears possible south of the Mason-Dixon Line, where moderate instability is forecast across the pre-frontal warm sector.

Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity during the afternoon along the cold front and lee trough from the Delmarva into central Appalachians and VA/NC Piedmont. The moderate instability combined with 35-40 kt of deep-layer shear will support organized storm modes with the primary hazard being damaging wind gusts.

Other more isolated severe storms appear possible over the central High Plains within a low-level upslope regime.

### Day 5/Wednesday

The Day 4/Tuesday upper low is forecast to slowly drift northeast with a belt of stronger mid-level winds overspreading New England. A surface low will remain vertically aligned with the mid-level system with convergence in the vicinity of that feature and a trailing front serving as the focus for afternoon thunderstorm development. The models suggest that southern to central parts of New England may become moderately unstable, which, combined with the slight shear enhancement, may support a few strong to severe storms.

Additional strong to severe storms appear possible along a frontal zone in the Southeast, where a very moist air mass will contribute to moderate to strong instability.

Uncertainty in the extent of the severe weather threat in both areas precludes the delineation of a 15% probability contour.

### Days 6-8/Thursday through Saturday

The 00Z ensemble means are in reasonably good agreement in depicting the retrogression of the upper high from the Southern Rockies into the lower CO Valley. A concurrent weakening and broadening of the eastern CONUS trough is also forecast. There is a model signal for a stronger mid-level system to move into BC and the Pacific Northwest by Day 8/Saturday. Deterministic guidance indicates a series of weak disturbances tracking from the northern Plains to along and east of the MS Valley during this time period with sporadic occurrences of severe weather possible. However, the large-scale pattern currently appears unsupportive of an organized severe weather episode.

..Mead.. 07/25/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, August 1

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250845 SPC AC 250845

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Valid 281200Z - 021200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Tuesday

An upper low is forecast to develop from southwest ON into the northern Mid-Atlantic with an attending belt of 35-45 kt mid-level flow extending from the OH Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cyclone will remain vertically aligned with the upper low, while a trailing cold front advances through the upper OH and TN Valleys into the Mid-Atlantic, Carolinas, and Gulf Coast states. A lee trough is expected to develop ahead of the cold front along the Piedmont Tuesday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms (some potentially strong) are expected to be ongoing Tuesday morning from the upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic, aided by forcing for ascent ahead of the upper low and low-level warm air and moisture advection along a 30-40 kt low-level jet. That activity is expected to linger into the afternoon from NY and PA into western New England, which will limit the potential for air mass destabilization in those areas. Stronger daytime heating appears possible south of the Mason-Dixon Line, where moderate instability is forecast across the pre-frontal warm sector.

Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity during the afternoon along the cold front and lee trough from the Delmarva into central Appalachians and VA/NC Piedmont. The moderate instability combined with 35-40 kt of deep-layer shear will support organized storm modes with the primary hazard being damaging wind gusts.

Other more isolated severe storms appear possible over the central High Plains within a low-level upslope regime.

### Day 5/Wednesday

The Day 4/Tuesday upper low is forecast to slowly drift northeast with a belt of stronger mid-level winds overspreading New England. A surface low will remain vertically aligned with the mid-level system with convergence in the vicinity of that feature and a trailing front serving as the focus for afternoon thunderstorm development. The models suggest that southern to central parts of New England may become moderately unstable, which, combined with the slight shear enhancement, may support a few strong to severe storms.

Additional strong to severe storms appear possible along a frontal zone in the Southeast, where a very moist air mass will contribute to moderate to strong instability.

Uncertainty in the extent of the severe weather threat in both areas precludes the delineation of a 15% probability contour.

### Days 6-8/Thursday through Saturday

The 00Z ensemble means are in reasonably good agreement in depicting the retrogression of the upper high from the Southern Rockies into the lower CO Valley. A concurrent weakening and broadening of the eastern CONUS trough is also forecast. There is a model signal for a stronger mid-level system to move into BC and the Pacific Northwest by Day 8/Saturday. Deterministic guidance indicates a series of weak disturbances tracking from the northern Plains to along and east of the MS Valley during this time period with sporadic occurrences of severe weather possible. However, the large-scale pattern currently appears unsupportive of an organized severe weather episode.

..Mead.. 07/25/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Saturday, July 25

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 30%

Sunday, July 26

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Monday, July 27

ANY SEVERE: 30%

Tuesday, July 28

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Wednesday, July 29

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Thursday, July 30

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Friday, July 31

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Saturday, August 1

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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