Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Sunday, June 7

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat are expected today across parts of the northern Plains. An isolated threat for tornadoes and severe wind gusts will be possible from parts of eastern Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas eastward across the Ozarks. Strong wind gusts will also be possible in the mid Mississippi Valley and in the Mid-Atlantic.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 070546

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat are expected today across parts of the northern Plains. An isolated threat for tornadoes and severe wind gusts will be possible from parts of eastern Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas eastward across the Ozarks. Strong wind gusts will also be possible in the mid Mississippi Valley and in the Mid-Atlantic.

Northern Plains

An upper-level trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies today. Ahead of the trough, mid-level heights will gradually fall across the northern Plains. At the surface, a trough of low pressure will deepen in the western Dakotas as a cold front advances eastward across the northern High Plains. Surface dewpoints near the surface trough will be in the lower to mid 60s F which will enable moderate instability to develop around midday. During the afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to form along the front and further east near the surface trough as low-level convergence increases. Although cells will initially be discrete, convection is expected to grow upscale into a line during the evening.

At 21Z, RAP forecast soundings near the surface trough in western North Dakota have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.5 C/km. This environment will be favorable for supercells with large hail. The more dominant supercells may be capable of producing hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. Low-level shear may be strong enough for an isolated tornado threat as well. Supercells will be favored in the late afternoon when cells will likely be discrete. In the early evening, a quick transition to linear mode is expected, although rotating elements will continue to be possible in the line itself. As the line develops, severe wind gusts will become more likely. Intense parts of the line could be capable of producing wind gusts above 75 mph.

Eastern Oklahoma/Southeast Kansas/Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley

An upper-level trough will move northeastward across the central U.S. today, over the top of a moist and unstable airmass. Surface dewpoints from eastern parts of the southern and central Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s F. This will contribute to the development of moderate instability by afternoon. Random areas of maximized low-level convergence are expected this afternoon which will lead to the formation of scattered thunderstorms. Deep-layer shear of 25 to 30 knots should be sufficient for isolated supercells. Storm-relative helicity could reach 200 m2/s2 in a few areas, which would support an isolated tornado threat. Strong wind gusts will also be possible with this threat extending eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. The wind-damage threat will be greatest in the mid to late afternoon as low-level lapse rates become steep.

Mid-Atlantic

An upper-level trough and an associated cold front will move across the Mid-Atlantic today. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the mid 60s F will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon. Thunderstorms will develop near and to the south of the front during the mid to late afternoon. RAP forecast soundings ahead of the front suggest that 0-3 km lapse rates will peak near 8 C/km, which should support a potential for isolated severe wind gusts.

..Broyles/Supinie.. 06/07/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Monday, June 8

Outlook Summary

Isolated to widely scattered severe storms capable of large to very large hail and perhaps a brief tornado or two are possible Monday afternoon and evening in northeast Colorado, southeast Wyoming, and the southern Nebraska Panhandle. Additional, more isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging winds will be possible from the Canadian border into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. Sporadic damaging winds may occur from the Ozark Plateau into the Mid-south.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 070558

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING…NORTHEAST COLORADO…AND THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE

### SUMMARY

Isolated to widely scattered severe storms capable of large to very large hail and perhaps a brief tornado or two are possible Monday afternoon and evening in northeast Colorado, southeast Wyoming, and the southern Nebraska Panhandle. Additional, more isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging winds will be possible from the Canadian border into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. Sporadic damaging winds may occur from the Ozark Plateau into the Mid-south.

Synopsis

A mid-level jet streak and associated channeled vorticity maximum initially from the northern Rockies into northern High Plains will lift northeast into Manitoba, ahead of an amplifying short-wave trough moving through the Pacific Northwest into northern Rockies. Elsewhere, loosely organized troughing initially along the MS Valley will shift northeast into the Great Lakes and OH Valley.

At the surface, a front initially stretching from the central Dakotas to low pressure over western KS is expected to weaken through the day in response to falling pressures across the northern Rockies. A weak cyclone is expected to persist over southwest KS or northwest OK, with a dryline extending southwest into western TX.

### Great Plains

With the early-day passage of the lead short-wave trough through the northern High Plains, mid-level heights may rebound slightly during the afternoon, with negligible forcing for ascent indicated in model guidance. As such, the most probable location for isolated to widely scattered severe-storm development appears to be along favored terrain from north of the Palmer Divide to along the Cheyenne Ridge. There, moist upslope flow will become established by afternoon, beneath a plume of steep lapse rates, yielding MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. Vertical shear is expected to strengthen through the day with effective bulk shear increasing to around 50 kt by late afternoon into early evening. As such, the potential will exist for supercells capable of large to very large hail and perhaps a brief tornado or two. The severe-threat may move into the adjacent High Plains Monday evening before the storms weaken.

Across the lower elevations of the Plains there is considerably more model spread in the timing and location of storms through the forecast period, likely as a result of the weak forcing. The residual surface front from eastern SD through central NE into western KS, and south along the dryline into the OK/TX Panhandles will be viable locations for diurnally enhanced storms amidst a moderate to strongly unstable air mass. As such, isolated occurrences for large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible. Stronger deep-layer shear is forecast from northern KS into the northern Plains, which may support a longer-lived, more organized storm threat. However, given the model variability mentioned above, no additional level 2/Slight Risk areas will be highlighted with this forecast.

Finally, it appears a separate, elevated thunderstorm regime could materialize early Tuesday morning from parts of eastern MT through northern ND, where some large hail threat could develop.

### Ozark Plateau into the Mid-South

A number of models indicate the potential for a complex of thunderstorms to be ongoing Monday morning across portions of the Ozark Plateau, aided by low-level warm advection along a modest low-level jet. That activity is expected to continue east/southeast through the day, with some potential for cold pool organization and related damaging wind potential as the system encounters a moist and moderately unstable air mass.

..Mead.. 06/07/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, June 9

Outlook Summary

Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across portions of the northern Plains into Upper Mississippi Valley Tuesday afternoon into night. All severe-weather hazards are possible. Isolated to widely scattered severe storms may also occur across the central Plains, with a risk for large hail and damaging winds.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 070722

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA

### SUMMARY

Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across portions of the northern Plains into Upper Mississippi Valley Tuesday afternoon into night. All severe-weather hazards are possible. Isolated to widely scattered severe storms may also occur across the central Plains, with a risk for large hail and damaging winds.

Synopsis

A short-wave trough and attending mid/upper-level jet streaks over the northern Rockies Tuesday morning will overspread the northern Plains by afternoon. Farther upstream, a significant short-wave trough will assume an increasing negative tilt while translating into the northern High Plains early Tuesday morning. At the surface, a cyclone linked with the lead short-wave trough will deepen while developing from southeast MT into western ND by afternoon. Meanwhile, an associated Pacific front will push east into the western Dakotas, with more of a dryline structure evident from southwest NE into the OK and TX Panhandles.

### Northern and Central Plains into Upper Mississippi Valley

An active severe-weather period is anticipated Tuesday afternoon into night, especially across the northern Plains, where all severe-weather hazards are possible.

While the pre-frontal air mass over the western Dakotas is not expected to be overly moist with dewpoints in the 50s to low 60s, strong daytime heating and steep mid-level lapse rates will contribute to moderate to strong instability by mid to late afternoon. Some potential for early-day storms will exist in northern ND, within a zone of persistent warm advection. Additional, more intense thunderstorm activity is expected by mid afternoon from the southern fringe of the early-day convection south along the front as forcing for ascent increases with the approach of the short-wave trough.

Vertically veering wind profiles with 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear will favor supercells capable of large to very large hail initially. Some tornado threat could materialize during the evening hours as LCL heights lower and the low-level shear increases. With time, storms may grow upscale into clusters, with an increasing risk for damaging winds spreading east through the Red River Valley.

Farther south, a number of models develop isolated to widely scattered storms during the afternoon along the dryline in western KS amidst a marginally sheared, but moderate to strongly unstable environment. There is some signal that an MCS could evolve from that activity across the mid to lower MO Valley Tuesday evening. Only 5% total-severe probabilities will be added in those areas, due to uncertainty in that scenario.

..Mead.. 06/07/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, June 10

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070841 SPC AC 070841

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

DISCUSSION

Day4/Wednesday

A concentrated area of potentially significant severe weather is expected Wednesday afternoon and evening, centered across portions of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa.

A number of the deterministic models have trended slightly faster with the progression of a lead short-wave trough and associated jet streak through the northern Plains into upper MS Valley. At the surface, low pressure initially over eastern SD is forecast to develop northeast along a cold front moving from the eastern Dakotas into MN. The trailing extension of the boundary is expected to move more slowly into the mid MO Valley before stalling in response to a deepening cyclone over the central High Plains.

Steep lapse rates and a very moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate to strong instability across the warm sector, with initial storms potentially developing by early afternoon from the Red River Valley into central MN. Subsequent storms are likely to develop across southern MN into IA and northern MO by mid to late afternoon. The models indicate 40+ kt deep-layer shear across the warm sector, supportive of supercells and bowing structures, capable of all severe-weather hazards. The severe-weather threat is expected to spread east through the upper Midwest during the evening hours.

### Day 5/Thursday

Both the ensemble mean and deterministic models indicate the development of a prominent mid-level low over Manitoba or northwest Ontario, with a potent short-wave trough moving through the base of that feature from the upper MS Valley through the upper Great Lakes. A belt of unseasonably strong mid-level winds will attend the short-wave trough from the central Plains into upper Great Lakes. At the surface, ensemble member clustering and the deterministic models indicate the primary low pressure over Ontario, with some signal for a secondary cyclone/frontal wave developing from the mid MO Valley into upper Midwest during the day. The associated surface front is forecast to advance through the upper Midwest into upper Great Lakes, with the trailing extension of the boundary moving into the mid MS Valley and southern Plains.

The presence of moderate to strong instability across the pre-frontal warm sector suggests the potential for severe storms from the upper Midwest into southern Plains. Within that broader envelope, a potentially more concentrated area of severe weather may materialize from parts of the upper Midwest into mid MS Valley during the afternoon and evening hours. There, the most favorable overlap of the forcing for ascent, sufficient vertical shear, and ample instability are expected to reside.

### Day 6/Friday

The ensembles and majority of deterministic models indicate the Day5/Thursday upper Great lakes short-wave trough will lift northeast into Ontario and Quebec. At the surface, the models suggest that a weakening cold front will advance into the Northeast and through the OH Valley. Some severe-weather threat could develop along the front by afternoon; however, the models suggest that the boundary will become increasingly displaced from the strongest mid-level winds and associated vertical shear. Isolated severe storms also appear possible in the vicinity of a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains.

### Days 7-8/Saturday and Sunday

The ensemble mean solutions indicate some potential for mid-level troughing to develop from the northern Rockies into northern Plains next weekend, which is supported by a number of the deterministic models. At the surface, there are indications that a frontal system may stretch from the upper Midwest or Great Lakes into central High Plains, where some severe-weather threat could develop.

..Mead.. 06/07/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Thursday, June 11

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070841 SPC AC 070841

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

DISCUSSION

Day4/Wednesday

A concentrated area of potentially significant severe weather is expected Wednesday afternoon and evening, centered across portions of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa.

A number of the deterministic models have trended slightly faster with the progression of a lead short-wave trough and associated jet streak through the northern Plains into upper MS Valley. At the surface, low pressure initially over eastern SD is forecast to develop northeast along a cold front moving from the eastern Dakotas into MN. The trailing extension of the boundary is expected to move more slowly into the mid MO Valley before stalling in response to a deepening cyclone over the central High Plains.

Steep lapse rates and a very moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate to strong instability across the warm sector, with initial storms potentially developing by early afternoon from the Red River Valley into central MN. Subsequent storms are likely to develop across southern MN into IA and northern MO by mid to late afternoon. The models indicate 40+ kt deep-layer shear across the warm sector, supportive of supercells and bowing structures, capable of all severe-weather hazards. The severe-weather threat is expected to spread east through the upper Midwest during the evening hours.

### Day 5/Thursday

Both the ensemble mean and deterministic models indicate the development of a prominent mid-level low over Manitoba or northwest Ontario, with a potent short-wave trough moving through the base of that feature from the upper MS Valley through the upper Great Lakes. A belt of unseasonably strong mid-level winds will attend the short-wave trough from the central Plains into upper Great Lakes. At the surface, ensemble member clustering and the deterministic models indicate the primary low pressure over Ontario, with some signal for a secondary cyclone/frontal wave developing from the mid MO Valley into upper Midwest during the day. The associated surface front is forecast to advance through the upper Midwest into upper Great Lakes, with the trailing extension of the boundary moving into the mid MS Valley and southern Plains.

The presence of moderate to strong instability across the pre-frontal warm sector suggests the potential for severe storms from the upper Midwest into southern Plains. Within that broader envelope, a potentially more concentrated area of severe weather may materialize from parts of the upper Midwest into mid MS Valley during the afternoon and evening hours. There, the most favorable overlap of the forcing for ascent, sufficient vertical shear, and ample instability are expected to reside.

### Day 6/Friday

The ensembles and majority of deterministic models indicate the Day5/Thursday upper Great lakes short-wave trough will lift northeast into Ontario and Quebec. At the surface, the models suggest that a weakening cold front will advance into the Northeast and through the OH Valley. Some severe-weather threat could develop along the front by afternoon; however, the models suggest that the boundary will become increasingly displaced from the strongest mid-level winds and associated vertical shear. Isolated severe storms also appear possible in the vicinity of a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains.

### Days 7-8/Saturday and Sunday

The ensemble mean solutions indicate some potential for mid-level troughing to develop from the northern Rockies into northern Plains next weekend, which is supported by a number of the deterministic models. At the surface, there are indications that a frontal system may stretch from the upper Midwest or Great Lakes into central High Plains, where some severe-weather threat could develop.

..Mead.. 06/07/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Friday, June 12

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070841 SPC AC 070841

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

DISCUSSION

Day4/Wednesday

A concentrated area of potentially significant severe weather is expected Wednesday afternoon and evening, centered across portions of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa.

A number of the deterministic models have trended slightly faster with the progression of a lead short-wave trough and associated jet streak through the northern Plains into upper MS Valley. At the surface, low pressure initially over eastern SD is forecast to develop northeast along a cold front moving from the eastern Dakotas into MN. The trailing extension of the boundary is expected to move more slowly into the mid MO Valley before stalling in response to a deepening cyclone over the central High Plains.

Steep lapse rates and a very moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate to strong instability across the warm sector, with initial storms potentially developing by early afternoon from the Red River Valley into central MN. Subsequent storms are likely to develop across southern MN into IA and northern MO by mid to late afternoon. The models indicate 40+ kt deep-layer shear across the warm sector, supportive of supercells and bowing structures, capable of all severe-weather hazards. The severe-weather threat is expected to spread east through the upper Midwest during the evening hours.

### Day 5/Thursday

Both the ensemble mean and deterministic models indicate the development of a prominent mid-level low over Manitoba or northwest Ontario, with a potent short-wave trough moving through the base of that feature from the upper MS Valley through the upper Great Lakes. A belt of unseasonably strong mid-level winds will attend the short-wave trough from the central Plains into upper Great Lakes. At the surface, ensemble member clustering and the deterministic models indicate the primary low pressure over Ontario, with some signal for a secondary cyclone/frontal wave developing from the mid MO Valley into upper Midwest during the day. The associated surface front is forecast to advance through the upper Midwest into upper Great Lakes, with the trailing extension of the boundary moving into the mid MS Valley and southern Plains.

The presence of moderate to strong instability across the pre-frontal warm sector suggests the potential for severe storms from the upper Midwest into southern Plains. Within that broader envelope, a potentially more concentrated area of severe weather may materialize from parts of the upper Midwest into mid MS Valley during the afternoon and evening hours. There, the most favorable overlap of the forcing for ascent, sufficient vertical shear, and ample instability are expected to reside.

### Day 6/Friday

The ensembles and majority of deterministic models indicate the Day5/Thursday upper Great lakes short-wave trough will lift northeast into Ontario and Quebec. At the surface, the models suggest that a weakening cold front will advance into the Northeast and through the OH Valley. Some severe-weather threat could develop along the front by afternoon; however, the models suggest that the boundary will become increasingly displaced from the strongest mid-level winds and associated vertical shear. Isolated severe storms also appear possible in the vicinity of a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains.

### Days 7-8/Saturday and Sunday

The ensemble mean solutions indicate some potential for mid-level troughing to develop from the northern Rockies into northern Plains next weekend, which is supported by a number of the deterministic models. At the surface, there are indications that a frontal system may stretch from the upper Midwest or Great Lakes into central High Plains, where some severe-weather threat could develop.

..Mead.. 06/07/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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---

 

Outlook for Saturday, June 13

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070841 SPC AC 070841

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

DISCUSSION

Day4/Wednesday

A concentrated area of potentially significant severe weather is expected Wednesday afternoon and evening, centered across portions of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa.

A number of the deterministic models have trended slightly faster with the progression of a lead short-wave trough and associated jet streak through the northern Plains into upper MS Valley. At the surface, low pressure initially over eastern SD is forecast to develop northeast along a cold front moving from the eastern Dakotas into MN. The trailing extension of the boundary is expected to move more slowly into the mid MO Valley before stalling in response to a deepening cyclone over the central High Plains.

Steep lapse rates and a very moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate to strong instability across the warm sector, with initial storms potentially developing by early afternoon from the Red River Valley into central MN. Subsequent storms are likely to develop across southern MN into IA and northern MO by mid to late afternoon. The models indicate 40+ kt deep-layer shear across the warm sector, supportive of supercells and bowing structures, capable of all severe-weather hazards. The severe-weather threat is expected to spread east through the upper Midwest during the evening hours.

### Day 5/Thursday

Both the ensemble mean and deterministic models indicate the development of a prominent mid-level low over Manitoba or northwest Ontario, with a potent short-wave trough moving through the base of that feature from the upper MS Valley through the upper Great Lakes. A belt of unseasonably strong mid-level winds will attend the short-wave trough from the central Plains into upper Great Lakes. At the surface, ensemble member clustering and the deterministic models indicate the primary low pressure over Ontario, with some signal for a secondary cyclone/frontal wave developing from the mid MO Valley into upper Midwest during the day. The associated surface front is forecast to advance through the upper Midwest into upper Great Lakes, with the trailing extension of the boundary moving into the mid MS Valley and southern Plains.

The presence of moderate to strong instability across the pre-frontal warm sector suggests the potential for severe storms from the upper Midwest into southern Plains. Within that broader envelope, a potentially more concentrated area of severe weather may materialize from parts of the upper Midwest into mid MS Valley during the afternoon and evening hours. There, the most favorable overlap of the forcing for ascent, sufficient vertical shear, and ample instability are expected to reside.

### Day 6/Friday

The ensembles and majority of deterministic models indicate the Day5/Thursday upper Great lakes short-wave trough will lift northeast into Ontario and Quebec. At the surface, the models suggest that a weakening cold front will advance into the Northeast and through the OH Valley. Some severe-weather threat could develop along the front by afternoon; however, the models suggest that the boundary will become increasingly displaced from the strongest mid-level winds and associated vertical shear. Isolated severe storms also appear possible in the vicinity of a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains.

### Days 7-8/Saturday and Sunday

The ensemble mean solutions indicate some potential for mid-level troughing to develop from the northern Rockies into northern Plains next weekend, which is supported by a number of the deterministic models. At the surface, there are indications that a frontal system may stretch from the upper Midwest or Great Lakes into central High Plains, where some severe-weather threat could develop.

..Mead.. 06/07/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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---

 

Outlook for Sunday, June 14

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070841 SPC AC 070841

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

DISCUSSION

Day4/Wednesday

A concentrated area of potentially significant severe weather is expected Wednesday afternoon and evening, centered across portions of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa.

A number of the deterministic models have trended slightly faster with the progression of a lead short-wave trough and associated jet streak through the northern Plains into upper MS Valley. At the surface, low pressure initially over eastern SD is forecast to develop northeast along a cold front moving from the eastern Dakotas into MN. The trailing extension of the boundary is expected to move more slowly into the mid MO Valley before stalling in response to a deepening cyclone over the central High Plains.

Steep lapse rates and a very moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate to strong instability across the warm sector, with initial storms potentially developing by early afternoon from the Red River Valley into central MN. Subsequent storms are likely to develop across southern MN into IA and northern MO by mid to late afternoon. The models indicate 40+ kt deep-layer shear across the warm sector, supportive of supercells and bowing structures, capable of all severe-weather hazards. The severe-weather threat is expected to spread east through the upper Midwest during the evening hours.

### Day 5/Thursday

Both the ensemble mean and deterministic models indicate the development of a prominent mid-level low over Manitoba or northwest Ontario, with a potent short-wave trough moving through the base of that feature from the upper MS Valley through the upper Great Lakes. A belt of unseasonably strong mid-level winds will attend the short-wave trough from the central Plains into upper Great Lakes. At the surface, ensemble member clustering and the deterministic models indicate the primary low pressure over Ontario, with some signal for a secondary cyclone/frontal wave developing from the mid MO Valley into upper Midwest during the day. The associated surface front is forecast to advance through the upper Midwest into upper Great Lakes, with the trailing extension of the boundary moving into the mid MS Valley and southern Plains.

The presence of moderate to strong instability across the pre-frontal warm sector suggests the potential for severe storms from the upper Midwest into southern Plains. Within that broader envelope, a potentially more concentrated area of severe weather may materialize from parts of the upper Midwest into mid MS Valley during the afternoon and evening hours. There, the most favorable overlap of the forcing for ascent, sufficient vertical shear, and ample instability are expected to reside.

### Day 6/Friday

The ensembles and majority of deterministic models indicate the Day5/Thursday upper Great lakes short-wave trough will lift northeast into Ontario and Quebec. At the surface, the models suggest that a weakening cold front will advance into the Northeast and through the OH Valley. Some severe-weather threat could develop along the front by afternoon; however, the models suggest that the boundary will become increasingly displaced from the strongest mid-level winds and associated vertical shear. Isolated severe storms also appear possible in the vicinity of a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains.

### Days 7-8/Saturday and Sunday

The ensemble mean solutions indicate some potential for mid-level troughing to develop from the northern Rockies into northern Plains next weekend, which is supported by a number of the deterministic models. At the surface, there are indications that a frontal system may stretch from the upper Midwest or Great Lakes into central High Plains, where some severe-weather threat could develop.

..Mead.. 06/07/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

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National Risk Overview

Sunday, June 7

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 30%

Monday, June 8

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 5%

Tuesday, June 9

ANY SEVERE: 30%

Wednesday, June 10

ANY SEVERE: 30%

Thursday, June 11

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Friday, June 12

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Saturday, June 13

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Sunday, June 14

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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