Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, June 27
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are likely today across the northern High Plains including northeast Wyoming and eastern Montana into the western Dakotas, with storms capable of very large hail, very strong outflow winds (80+ mph), and tornadoes late this afternoon into tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 10%
wind 30%
hail 30%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 272000
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026
Valid 272000Z - 281200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
### THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE CAROLINAS
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are likely today across the northern High Plains including northeast Wyoming and eastern Montana into the western Dakotas, with storms capable of very large hail, very strong outflow winds (80+ mph), and tornadoes late this afternoon into tonight.
20Z Update
The previous forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made with this update. The ENH risk was expanded slightly southwestward in northeastern WY, where several discrete supercell have evolved off the Bighorn Mountains – posing a risk of large to very large hail.
In western ND, the CIG1 tornado area was extended slightly northward. Continued diurnal heating amid upper 60s dewpoints will yield moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy and minimal inhibition. Backed surface winds beneath strengthening flow aloft will contribute to favorably curved hodographs. Any storms that can form or move into this environment will conditionally support a strong tornado.
Farther east, the SLGT risk was expanded northward in the lower OH Valley. Here, diurnal heating/destabilization of a very moist air mass (upper 70s dewpoints) will continue to support loosely organized thunderstorm clusters capable of producing widely scattered damaging winds this afternoon.
..Weinman.. 06/27/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1142 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026/
Northern High Plains this afternoon into tonight
A rather active severe-weather scenario is anticipated regionally later today, including the potential for intense/locally significant severe storms. A lead shortwave trough/speed max will continue to approach through late today, with the exit region of a strong upper-level jet overspreading the region including 50+ kt southwesterlies above 5km AGL. Boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s F will continue to spread northward regionally, to the east of a deepening surface low across northeast Wyoming toward the far western Dakotas, and a sharpening lee trough/dryline across a more prevalent north/south extent of the High Plains. This low-level moistening will occur beneath a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates emanating from the Great Basin and north-central Rockies.
Initial surface-based development is expected near the surface low/trough near the Big Horn Mountains toward the Wyoming/Montana/North Dakota border vicinity. The maturing stronger initial storms will almost certainly be supercellular owing to moderate to large CAPE and a strong wind field. The risk for large to very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) is greatest near this aforementioned border region where supercells are forecast early in the convective life cycle, although additional/somewhat more discrete development will also likely occur a bit later farther southeastward across northwest South Dakota.
A few tornadoes are also possible particularly in the more moisture-rich environment near the surface triple point, but relatively large temperature-dewpoint spreads and a transition to upscale growth may temper the tornado threat, particularly with northward extent either side of the Montana/North Dakota border vicinity. As more storms develop leading to storm mergers and coalescing outflow, a linear cluster will likely develop into a maturing/accelerating bow echo into western North Dakota this evening, with significant/intense thunderstorm winds (80+ mph) possible.
Severe storms will likely develop eastward tonight across the Dakotas, and prior to that, diurnally enhanced, but more isolated intense, development is plausible as far south as western Nebraska with large hail and damaging winds.
Northern Intermountain West including northern UT/western WY
Influenced by a lead shortwave trough/speed max associated with the prominent upper-level trough centered over the Pacific Northwest, strong to locally severe thunderstorm potential will probably exist early today. The prolifically strong wind field and modest destabilization will tend to focus today across northern Utah, southeast Idaho into western Wyoming, including the Star Valley vicinity. Severe-caliber wind gusts and some hail may occur.
Mid-South/Tennessee/southern Kentucky to North Carolina
Multiple MCVs, including across far south-central Missouri and southeast Kansas at midday, will influence the region as they progress east-southward generally toward Kentucky and Tennessee. Related flow enhancement is evident in regional WSR-88d VWP data, and particularly in the 12z Lamont, OK observed sounding (40+ kt 4-9km AGL). See Mesoscale Discussion 1346 for additional short-term details.
These MCVs will influence and semi-focus thunderstorm development within a moist and increasingly unstable boundary layer from the southeast Missouri/northeast Arkansas border vicinity into Kentucky and Tennessee. This includes the possibility of some supercells and well-organized clusters in the presence of 35-40 kt effective shear. Pockets of wind damage will be the most common risk, but some tornado potential will exist as well. Additional severe storms capable of wind damage are also expected farther eastward into the Carolinas this afternoon through around mid-evening.
Texas Panhandle/West Texas late this afternoon/evening
Though forcing for ascent will be weak at best this far south, strong surface heating/mixing along the lee trough/dryline could support high-based thunderstorm development late this afternoon. Inverted-V profiles will favor the potential for isolated severe outflow gusts of 60-75 mph.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Sunday, June 28
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern Plains into parts of the Upper Midwest on Sunday. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary hazards.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 271721
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern Plains into parts of the Upper Midwest on Sunday. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary hazards.
Northern Plains/Upper Midwest
A challenging forecast scenario is expected on Sunday across portions of the Dakotas into the Upper Midwest. Upper ridging is expected to amplify over the Mid/Upper MS Valley and western Great Lakes vicinity. This will result in capping concerns across the region owing to height rises and warming aloft, especially from the eastern Dakotas into the Upper Midwest. However, surface troughing will sharpen and extend southward across the central Dakotas into the central Plains. Meanwhile, a warm front/moisture gradient will extend southeastward from northern MN into WI and the southern Lake Michigan vicinity. Overnight, a surface low is forecast to mildly deepen somewhere from western NE into SD. Forecast guidance continues to show uncertainty in the evolution of this feature.
Southeasterly low-level flow will transport rich boundary layer moisture westward across the region, with dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70 F common. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the Red River and Upper MS Valley during the day, while lapse rates further west steepen during the evening/overnight. This will result in corridors of moderate to strong instability within the warm sector to the east of the surface trough and south of the warm front. However, given the building upper ridge, capping may persist across the region, limiting potential for surface-based convection.
Storms are expected to be ongoing Sunday morning across the eastern Dakotas and will spread east through the day. While this activity may be elevated, large hail is possible. A southerly low-level jet is expected to persist through the daytime, and if storms can become near-surface based, some damaging wind potential also would exist. It is unclear how far east this convection may persist as it crests the building upper ridge.
Overnight, convection is expected to develop near the surface low/trough on the leading edge of a strong southerly low-level jet across western or central SD. This activity may be elevated, but will likely initially be supercell mode with an attendant risk for large to very large hail. If convection grows upscale, some wind risk is also possible, but this is more uncertain given capping concerns.
Southern Mid-Atlantic
An MCV is expected to move across the NC vicinity on Sunday. Ahead of this feature, a seasonally very moist and moderately unstable airmass will be in place. Deep-layer flow will be modest, but the MCV may locally enhance vertical shear and provide support for a band of forward propagating convection moving off the higher terrain during the after and early evening. Sporadic strong/damaging wind gusts will be possible with these storms.
Southern Plains
A dryline will be oriented from western KS into southwest TX Sunday afternoon/evening. Strong heating is expected along the boundary along with sufficient dryline convergence. Deep boundary circulations and a narrow corridor of moderate instability will support isolated storm development. Strong downburst/outflow winds will be possible with these storms as generally weak vertical shear limits stronger updrafts longevity/organization.
..Leitman.. 06/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Monday, June 29
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest on Monday. Large hail and severe winds are the primary concerns.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 271917
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest on Monday. Large hail and severe winds are the primary concerns.
Central/Northern Plains to Upper Midwest
The forecast for Monday remains uncertain with forecast guidance depicting a wide envelop for severe potential across portions of the Missouri Valley into the Upper Midwest.
At the large scale, an upper ridge will persist from the central Gulf Coast northward to the Upper Great Lakes. Further west, a shortwave upper trough is forecast to eject from the central Rockies into Manitoba/western Ontario. This will bring a belt of enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow across the northern Plains and Upper MS Valley. At the surface, low pressure or an MCV over the Dakotas will lift generally northeast while a trough/surface front extends southward across the eastern Dakotas. The evolution of these features is uncertain, with some guidance lifting the low and any accompany severe risk quickly northward into Canada early in the day. Other guidance is slower and further south, favoring a corridor of severe potential across the eastern Dakotas and MN during the day. While these details remain a question mark, a very moist airmass will be in place with strong to extreme instability forecast. Depending on mesoscale details, an all-hazards severe risk could develop - though damaging wind and large hail appear most likely at this time. Given uncertainty, outlook changes are modest with this update.
..Leitman.. 06/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Tuesday, June 30
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, June 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, July 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, July 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, July 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, July 4 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270857 SPC AC 270857
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
The upper-level pattern from the middle of the new week onward will be relatively stagnant. The upper ridge in the East will remain entrenched while broad cyclonic flow will persist in the West before potentially breaking down by the weekend. This will drive a belt of weak to moderate mid-level southwesterlies across the central/northern Plains. Repeated lee trough development along with the surface high in the East will maintain rich moisture across parts of the Plains and especially the Midwest/Southeast. With large-scale features generally being weak, convective development will largely be reliant on terrain features, subtle shortwave troughs, or surface boundaries. With this pattern, at least low severe potential will exist within the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest into next weekend. Predictability will remain low, however, as large-scale features will be weaker and the influence of prior convection will increase with each successive day.
..Wendt.. 06/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, July 1
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, June 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, July 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, July 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, July 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, July 4 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270857 SPC AC 270857
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
The upper-level pattern from the middle of the new week onward will be relatively stagnant. The upper ridge in the East will remain entrenched while broad cyclonic flow will persist in the West before potentially breaking down by the weekend. This will drive a belt of weak to moderate mid-level southwesterlies across the central/northern Plains. Repeated lee trough development along with the surface high in the East will maintain rich moisture across parts of the Plains and especially the Midwest/Southeast. With large-scale features generally being weak, convective development will largely be reliant on terrain features, subtle shortwave troughs, or surface boundaries. With this pattern, at least low severe potential will exist within the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest into next weekend. Predictability will remain low, however, as large-scale features will be weaker and the influence of prior convection will increase with each successive day.
..Wendt.. 06/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, July 2
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, June 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, July 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, July 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, July 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, July 4 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270857 SPC AC 270857
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
The upper-level pattern from the middle of the new week onward will be relatively stagnant. The upper ridge in the East will remain entrenched while broad cyclonic flow will persist in the West before potentially breaking down by the weekend. This will drive a belt of weak to moderate mid-level southwesterlies across the central/northern Plains. Repeated lee trough development along with the surface high in the East will maintain rich moisture across parts of the Plains and especially the Midwest/Southeast. With large-scale features generally being weak, convective development will largely be reliant on terrain features, subtle shortwave troughs, or surface boundaries. With this pattern, at least low severe potential will exist within the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest into next weekend. Predictability will remain low, however, as large-scale features will be weaker and the influence of prior convection will increase with each successive day.
..Wendt.. 06/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, July 3
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, June 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, July 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, July 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, July 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, July 4 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270857 SPC AC 270857
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
The upper-level pattern from the middle of the new week onward will be relatively stagnant. The upper ridge in the East will remain entrenched while broad cyclonic flow will persist in the West before potentially breaking down by the weekend. This will drive a belt of weak to moderate mid-level southwesterlies across the central/northern Plains. Repeated lee trough development along with the surface high in the East will maintain rich moisture across parts of the Plains and especially the Midwest/Southeast. With large-scale features generally being weak, convective development will largely be reliant on terrain features, subtle shortwave troughs, or surface boundaries. With this pattern, at least low severe potential will exist within the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest into next weekend. Predictability will remain low, however, as large-scale features will be weaker and the influence of prior convection will increase with each successive day.
..Wendt.. 06/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, July 4
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, June 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, July 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, July 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, July 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, July 4 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270857 SPC AC 270857
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
The upper-level pattern from the middle of the new week onward will be relatively stagnant. The upper ridge in the East will remain entrenched while broad cyclonic flow will persist in the West before potentially breaking down by the weekend. This will drive a belt of weak to moderate mid-level southwesterlies across the central/northern Plains. Repeated lee trough development along with the surface high in the East will maintain rich moisture across parts of the Plains and especially the Midwest/Southeast. With large-scale features generally being weak, convective development will largely be reliant on terrain features, subtle shortwave troughs, or surface boundaries. With this pattern, at least low severe potential will exist within the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest into next weekend. Predictability will remain low, however, as large-scale features will be weaker and the influence of prior convection will increase with each successive day.
..Wendt.. 06/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, June 27
- TORNADO: 10%
- HAIL: 30%
- WIND: 30%
- Sunday, June 28
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Monday, June 29
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Tuesday, June 30
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, July 1
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, July 2
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, July 3
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, July 4
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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