Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, February 24
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are not expected across the US today.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 240541
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not expected across the US today.
Discussion
Along the northern periphery of an expansive upper ridge encompassing the western half of the CONUS, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will impinge on the northern Rockies during the overnight hours. While the development of shallow buoyancy may promote low-topped convection ahead of the trough, lightning is not expected.
..Weinman/Chalmers.. 02/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Wednesday, February 25
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday across portions of the central Plains southeast into the Ozarks and east into the Tennessee Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 240649
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday across portions of the central Plains southeast into the Ozarks and east into the Tennessee Valley.
Discussion
A fast moving shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Pacific Northwest into the central Plains/Mid-Missouri Valley on Wednesday. At the surface, a low will develop across the Texas Panhandle within a deepening lee trough before moving southeast then east overnight near the Red River.
Ahead of this trough/surface low, southerly winds will continue moistening the boundary layer, with dewpoints reaching the mid 50Fs across far southeast Oklahoma, Arkansas and northern Mississippi by Thursday morning. Warm temperatures aloft should inhibit deep convection during the day on Wednesday across the warm sector. However, strengthening southwesterly low-to-mid-level flow throughout the warm sector should result in enough moist isentropic ascent across the Ozarks into the Tennessee Valley that showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible, especially late Wednesday night as cooling midlevel temperatures overspread the area.
Farther west, thunderstorms may develop in associate with the aforementioned shortwave trough itself as it traverses the central Plains during the day on Wednesday. Here, cold mid-level temperatures overspreading a slowly moistening boundary layer may yield enough instability to support a few showers and thunderstorms.
..Marsh.. 02/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Thursday, February 26
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Southeast on Thursday, the strongest of which may be capable of producing a couple of strong wind gusts.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 240830
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Southeast on Thursday, the strongest of which may be capable of producing a couple of strong wind gusts.
Discussion
The upper-air pattern across the United States will remain best characterized by broad, fast, northwest flow for most of the forecast period. Within this flow, the primary focus will be on a shortwave trough forecast to drop southward from the mid-Missouri Valley into the Southeast. Recent guidance suggests trend toward a weaker, more dampened trough as it dives south of the main belt of mid-level flow.
In response to this weaker, more detached forcing, a surface low is forecast to develop much farther south than originally anticipated, likely across the lower Mississippi Valley and northern Gulf Coast states. Recent model trends indicate this cyclone will not develop as deeply, resulting in a notably weaker low-level wind field across the warm sector. Consequently, the associated surface cold front appears likely to merely sag southward rather than being dynamically driven, as the lack of robust cyclogenesis and a weaker trough limit frontal acceleration.
Despite weaker forcing and diminished convergence along the sagging front, some guidance suggests that buoyancy profiles may be slightly improved compared to previous outlooks, though they remain meager overall. Moisture return should yield surface dewpoints in the 50Fs to low 60Fs, which may support a narrow, forced convective band. Kinematically, forecast soundings indicate that low-level curvature is less than previously forecast, limiting the localized tornado potential, but hodographs remain quite long due to the persistence of stronger flow aloft. This maintains sufficient deep-layer shear for organized linear structures capable of isolated damaging wind gusts. However, given the weakening trends in forcing and low-level kinematics, confidence remains too low to introduce unconditional 5% severe probabilities at this time.
..Marsh.. 02/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Friday, February 27
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, February 27 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, February 28 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, March 1 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, March 2 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, March 3 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240946 SPC AC 240946
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
The severe potential will remain low through this forecast period as the atmosphere undergoes a pattern change.
Ensemble guidance is in good agreement that in the wake of a departing trough, a frontal boundary will stall across the northern Gulf Coast on Friday (Day 4), largely confining appreciable low-level moisture to the Gulf. The front remains loosely in place until late this weekend (Sunday – Day 6) when it washes out and redevelops farther north. This occurs coincident with a transition of the upper-air pattern from a single belt of broadly northwest flow to a split flow regime (ridge over trough).
By early next week (Days 7 and 8) an expansive upper-level ridge will take shape across much of the US while a closed low develops and then opens up beneath this ridge across the Southwest. The position and evolution of the closed low should place modest southwest flow across much of the Plains by the end of the forecast period. Southerly winds to the east of the resulting High Plains lee trough should support a gradual moistening of the Plains' low-level environment.
Although ensemble guidance is in relatively good agreement about the large-scale pattern evolution, considerable differences exist with the finer details, such as quality and northward extent of the moisture return, timing of specific feature evolution, and resulting placement of any precipitation potential – including thunderstorms. In any event, the overall resulting pattern and pattern recognition favors an increase in thunderstorm and perhaps severe potential across the central US just beyond this forecast period.
..Marsh.. 02/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, February 28
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, February 27 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, February 28 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, March 1 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, March 2 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, March 3 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240946 SPC AC 240946
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
The severe potential will remain low through this forecast period as the atmosphere undergoes a pattern change.
Ensemble guidance is in good agreement that in the wake of a departing trough, a frontal boundary will stall across the northern Gulf Coast on Friday (Day 4), largely confining appreciable low-level moisture to the Gulf. The front remains loosely in place until late this weekend (Sunday – Day 6) when it washes out and redevelops farther north. This occurs coincident with a transition of the upper-air pattern from a single belt of broadly northwest flow to a split flow regime (ridge over trough).
By early next week (Days 7 and 8) an expansive upper-level ridge will take shape across much of the US while a closed low develops and then opens up beneath this ridge across the Southwest. The position and evolution of the closed low should place modest southwest flow across much of the Plains by the end of the forecast period. Southerly winds to the east of the resulting High Plains lee trough should support a gradual moistening of the Plains' low-level environment.
Although ensemble guidance is in relatively good agreement about the large-scale pattern evolution, considerable differences exist with the finer details, such as quality and northward extent of the moisture return, timing of specific feature evolution, and resulting placement of any precipitation potential – including thunderstorms. In any event, the overall resulting pattern and pattern recognition favors an increase in thunderstorm and perhaps severe potential across the central US just beyond this forecast period.
..Marsh.. 02/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, March 1
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, February 27 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, February 28 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, March 1 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, March 2 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, March 3 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240946 SPC AC 240946
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
The severe potential will remain low through this forecast period as the atmosphere undergoes a pattern change.
Ensemble guidance is in good agreement that in the wake of a departing trough, a frontal boundary will stall across the northern Gulf Coast on Friday (Day 4), largely confining appreciable low-level moisture to the Gulf. The front remains loosely in place until late this weekend (Sunday – Day 6) when it washes out and redevelops farther north. This occurs coincident with a transition of the upper-air pattern from a single belt of broadly northwest flow to a split flow regime (ridge over trough).
By early next week (Days 7 and 8) an expansive upper-level ridge will take shape across much of the US while a closed low develops and then opens up beneath this ridge across the Southwest. The position and evolution of the closed low should place modest southwest flow across much of the Plains by the end of the forecast period. Southerly winds to the east of the resulting High Plains lee trough should support a gradual moistening of the Plains' low-level environment.
Although ensemble guidance is in relatively good agreement about the large-scale pattern evolution, considerable differences exist with the finer details, such as quality and northward extent of the moisture return, timing of specific feature evolution, and resulting placement of any precipitation potential – including thunderstorms. In any event, the overall resulting pattern and pattern recognition favors an increase in thunderstorm and perhaps severe potential across the central US just beyond this forecast period.
..Marsh.. 02/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, March 2
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, February 27 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, February 28 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, March 1 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, March 2 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, March 3 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240946 SPC AC 240946
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
The severe potential will remain low through this forecast period as the atmosphere undergoes a pattern change.
Ensemble guidance is in good agreement that in the wake of a departing trough, a frontal boundary will stall across the northern Gulf Coast on Friday (Day 4), largely confining appreciable low-level moisture to the Gulf. The front remains loosely in place until late this weekend (Sunday – Day 6) when it washes out and redevelops farther north. This occurs coincident with a transition of the upper-air pattern from a single belt of broadly northwest flow to a split flow regime (ridge over trough).
By early next week (Days 7 and 8) an expansive upper-level ridge will take shape across much of the US while a closed low develops and then opens up beneath this ridge across the Southwest. The position and evolution of the closed low should place modest southwest flow across much of the Plains by the end of the forecast period. Southerly winds to the east of the resulting High Plains lee trough should support a gradual moistening of the Plains' low-level environment.
Although ensemble guidance is in relatively good agreement about the large-scale pattern evolution, considerable differences exist with the finer details, such as quality and northward extent of the moisture return, timing of specific feature evolution, and resulting placement of any precipitation potential – including thunderstorms. In any event, the overall resulting pattern and pattern recognition favors an increase in thunderstorm and perhaps severe potential across the central US just beyond this forecast period.
..Marsh.. 02/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, March 3
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, February 27 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, February 28 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, March 1 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, March 2 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, March 3 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240946 SPC AC 240946
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
The severe potential will remain low through this forecast period as the atmosphere undergoes a pattern change.
Ensemble guidance is in good agreement that in the wake of a departing trough, a frontal boundary will stall across the northern Gulf Coast on Friday (Day 4), largely confining appreciable low-level moisture to the Gulf. The front remains loosely in place until late this weekend (Sunday – Day 6) when it washes out and redevelops farther north. This occurs coincident with a transition of the upper-air pattern from a single belt of broadly northwest flow to a split flow regime (ridge over trough).
By early next week (Days 7 and 8) an expansive upper-level ridge will take shape across much of the US while a closed low develops and then opens up beneath this ridge across the Southwest. The position and evolution of the closed low should place modest southwest flow across much of the Plains by the end of the forecast period. Southerly winds to the east of the resulting High Plains lee trough should support a gradual moistening of the Plains' low-level environment.
Although ensemble guidance is in relatively good agreement about the large-scale pattern evolution, considerable differences exist with the finer details, such as quality and northward extent of the moisture return, timing of specific feature evolution, and resulting placement of any precipitation potential – including thunderstorms. In any event, the overall resulting pattern and pattern recognition favors an increase in thunderstorm and perhaps severe potential across the central US just beyond this forecast period.
..Marsh.. 02/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, February 24
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Wednesday, February 25
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Thursday, February 26
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Friday, February 27
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, February 28
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, March 1
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, March 2
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, March 3
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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