Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, August 10
Outlook Summary
A severe wind swath, with a few 75+ mph gusts is possible across portions of the northern Plains into the Midwest tonight. A few severe gusts may also occur over central and southern Arizona.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 30%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 110053
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026
Valid 110100Z - 111200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA…SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA…AND NORTHWEST IOWA
### THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY…AND ACROSS PART OF AZ
### SUMMARY
A severe wind swath, with a few 75+ mph gusts is possible across portions of the northern Plains into the Midwest tonight. A few severe gusts may also occur over central and southern Arizona.
South Dakota into Iowa vicinity
A small cluster of storms near the western ND/SD border may be the start of what is expected to be a severe MCS through the overnight hours. These storms are developing within a corridor of strong instability and favorable deep layer shear. The 00z ABR RAOB shows a very favorable thermodynamic and kinematic parameter space for initial supercells growing upscale into a bowing MCS as a low-level jet increases tonight. This environment is characterized by an elongated/straight hodograph, steep lapse rates and strong instability with a layer of drier air around 700 mb atop a very moist boundary layer. This profile suggests sufficient cold pool generation is possible, aiding in development of a forward propagating bowing MCS capable of severe gusts (some 75+ mph) tonight into early Tuesday. Initial supercells also may pose a risk for large hail up to 2.5 inches. Reference MCD 1908 for more short term details.
Central High Plains
Scattered strong to severe storms will continue to pose a risk of damaging winds and hail for a few more hours this evening, particularly across parts of western NE. With loss of daytime heating, this activity is expected to gradually wane in intensity. Reference MCD 1910 for more short term information.
AZ
Widely scattered thunderstorms moving westward off higher terrain will pose a risk for severe wind gusts over the next few hours.
Northern IL into the Ohio Valley
Convection ongoing across northern IN will persist into the evening hours as it track east/southeast into OH. This activity may persist through the overnight hours moving across much of the Ohio Valley toward western PA and WV. Damaging winds will remain the primary hazard, but isolated large hail may also occur.
Mid-Atlantic/Northeast
Strong wind gusts will remain possible with storms along the southern Mid-Atlantic coast until they push completely offshore over the next hour. Otherwise, severe potential has largely diminished along the I-95 corridor and vicinity and severe probabilities have been trimmed and/or removed. The exception will be across parts of the northern NY into VT/NH area where a band of strong/severe storms is ongoing along a surface boundary. Damaging gusts may continue with this activity for a few more hours. Reference MCD 1909 for more details.
..Leitman.. 08/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Tuesday, August 11
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts will be possible Tuesday from the eastern Iowa/northern Illinois vicinity into parts of the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. Areas of severe wind gusts and hail will also be possible from parts of the northern Plains.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 30%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 101731
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST OHIO
### THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN IOWA TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS…AND OVER THE DAKOTAS
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts will be possible Tuesday from the eastern Iowa/northern Illinois vicinity into parts of the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. Areas of severe wind gusts and hail will also be possible from parts of the northern Plains.
From eastern IA into IL…IN…OH…Northern KY…WV
Moderate northwest flow aloft will persist over the region on Tuesday, while a large area of moisture and instability remain in place. Several rounds of thunderstorms will be possible throughout the region, with some uncertainty regarding timing and placement. However, the corridor of highest wind damage probability appears to be tied to early day storms which will be moving across IA. Several models suggest an organized MCS early on Tuesday, which would then proceed east/southeast during the day. This scenario seems plausible as instability will be strong with MUCAPE over 3000 J/kg, steep midlevel lapse rates, and moderate deep-layer mean wind speeds. A few significant wind gusts over 75 mph may occur, depending on MCS organization. Additional late day cells may redevelop along any trailing outflow, affecting areas from northern KY into WV and western VA with damaging gusts potential.
Dakotas into MN and IA
A surface trough will develop during the afternoon as strong heating occurs, beneath moderate northwest flow aloft. Storms are expected to form after 21Z from the Black Hills into western ND, proceeding east/southeast into the central Dakotas and northern NE through the evening. Deep-layer shear around 40 kt and substantial instability will favor cells capable of large hail.
There is significant uncertainly in whether storms will aggregate into an MCS, which could potentially spread into more of southern MN and IA Wednesday morning. If this occurs, damaging winds would be possible.
..Jewell.. 08/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Wednesday, August 12
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible Wednesday afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern High Plains. Areas of severe wind gusts will also be possible over a large area from mid Missouri Valley southeastward into the Carolinas.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 101930
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible Wednesday afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern High Plains. Areas of severe wind gusts will also be possible over a large area from mid Missouri Valley southeastward into the Carolinas.
Northern High Plains
Modest westerly winds aloft will exist over the central High Plains on Wednesday, with a surface low developing near the CO/KS border. Easterly surface winds north of the low across NE will maintain moisture and instability into the High Plains, and, maximize directional shear with height. Storms will form over the High Plains and move eastward through the evening. Hail may occur initially, with damaging gusts possible during the evening. Capping will become a concern with eastward extend across NE, but the 40 kt low-level jet may aid longevity.
From IA to NC
Substantial uncertainty exists on Wednesday due to likely areas of ongoing storms and impacts on daytime redevelopment. That said, the northwest flow regime aloft will persist across the Midwest and extending across the Appalachians, with an embedded shortwave trough moving southeastward toward the OH Valley. This may help focus an areas of storms across parts of IN/OH/KY. However, areas of early day storms are also likely across parts of the region, which will have an impact on severe potential. As such, will maintain a broad 5% Marginal Risk for damaging wind gusts.
..Jewell.. 08/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Thursday, August 13
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, August 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, August 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, August 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, August 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, August 17 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100854 SPC AC 100854
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6
A mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward through the north-central U.S. on Thursday and into the Great Lakes region on Friday. At the surface, a moist axis is forecast to remain in place from the central Plains east-southeastward into the lower Ohio Valley. Moderate to strong instability along the moist axis will make isolated severe thunderstorms possible each afternoon and evening. Additionally, a severe threat may develop near mid-level shortwave troughs that are forecast to move through the northern Plains and Mid-Atlantic on Friday.
On Saturday, a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move through the Great Lakes region. Moderate to strong instability may be in place over much of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio by afternoon. Along the northern edge of the stronger instability, isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible from Lower Michigan eastward into the central Appalachians Saturday afternoon. Additional severe storms may develop along an axis of moderate instability over parts of the central Plains in the afternoon and evening.
Concerning the severe potential from Thursday to Saturday, considerable variance exists among the model solutions concerning the position of features, suggesting uncertainty is still too great to add a threat area.
Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8
From Sunday into Monday, a broad cyclonic flow pattern is forecast to develop over the northeastern U.S. A cold front is forecast to move southward across the central and southern Appalachians. This boundary would be the primary focus for convective development each afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the 70s F along with moderate to strong instability would likely support an isolated severe threat. However, considerable uncertainty exists concerning the timing of the front. For this reason, predictability is low at this extended range.
..Broyles.. 08/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, August 14
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, August 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, August 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, August 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, August 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, August 17 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100854 SPC AC 100854
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6
A mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward through the north-central U.S. on Thursday and into the Great Lakes region on Friday. At the surface, a moist axis is forecast to remain in place from the central Plains east-southeastward into the lower Ohio Valley. Moderate to strong instability along the moist axis will make isolated severe thunderstorms possible each afternoon and evening. Additionally, a severe threat may develop near mid-level shortwave troughs that are forecast to move through the northern Plains and Mid-Atlantic on Friday.
On Saturday, a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move through the Great Lakes region. Moderate to strong instability may be in place over much of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio by afternoon. Along the northern edge of the stronger instability, isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible from Lower Michigan eastward into the central Appalachians Saturday afternoon. Additional severe storms may develop along an axis of moderate instability over parts of the central Plains in the afternoon and evening.
Concerning the severe potential from Thursday to Saturday, considerable variance exists among the model solutions concerning the position of features, suggesting uncertainty is still too great to add a threat area.
Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8
From Sunday into Monday, a broad cyclonic flow pattern is forecast to develop over the northeastern U.S. A cold front is forecast to move southward across the central and southern Appalachians. This boundary would be the primary focus for convective development each afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the 70s F along with moderate to strong instability would likely support an isolated severe threat. However, considerable uncertainty exists concerning the timing of the front. For this reason, predictability is low at this extended range.
..Broyles.. 08/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, August 15
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, August 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, August 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, August 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, August 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, August 17 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100854 SPC AC 100854
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6
A mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward through the north-central U.S. on Thursday and into the Great Lakes region on Friday. At the surface, a moist axis is forecast to remain in place from the central Plains east-southeastward into the lower Ohio Valley. Moderate to strong instability along the moist axis will make isolated severe thunderstorms possible each afternoon and evening. Additionally, a severe threat may develop near mid-level shortwave troughs that are forecast to move through the northern Plains and Mid-Atlantic on Friday.
On Saturday, a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move through the Great Lakes region. Moderate to strong instability may be in place over much of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio by afternoon. Along the northern edge of the stronger instability, isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible from Lower Michigan eastward into the central Appalachians Saturday afternoon. Additional severe storms may develop along an axis of moderate instability over parts of the central Plains in the afternoon and evening.
Concerning the severe potential from Thursday to Saturday, considerable variance exists among the model solutions concerning the position of features, suggesting uncertainty is still too great to add a threat area.
Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8
From Sunday into Monday, a broad cyclonic flow pattern is forecast to develop over the northeastern U.S. A cold front is forecast to move southward across the central and southern Appalachians. This boundary would be the primary focus for convective development each afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the 70s F along with moderate to strong instability would likely support an isolated severe threat. However, considerable uncertainty exists concerning the timing of the front. For this reason, predictability is low at this extended range.
..Broyles.. 08/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, August 16
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, August 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, August 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, August 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, August 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, August 17 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100854 SPC AC 100854
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6
A mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward through the north-central U.S. on Thursday and into the Great Lakes region on Friday. At the surface, a moist axis is forecast to remain in place from the central Plains east-southeastward into the lower Ohio Valley. Moderate to strong instability along the moist axis will make isolated severe thunderstorms possible each afternoon and evening. Additionally, a severe threat may develop near mid-level shortwave troughs that are forecast to move through the northern Plains and Mid-Atlantic on Friday.
On Saturday, a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move through the Great Lakes region. Moderate to strong instability may be in place over much of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio by afternoon. Along the northern edge of the stronger instability, isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible from Lower Michigan eastward into the central Appalachians Saturday afternoon. Additional severe storms may develop along an axis of moderate instability over parts of the central Plains in the afternoon and evening.
Concerning the severe potential from Thursday to Saturday, considerable variance exists among the model solutions concerning the position of features, suggesting uncertainty is still too great to add a threat area.
Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8
From Sunday into Monday, a broad cyclonic flow pattern is forecast to develop over the northeastern U.S. A cold front is forecast to move southward across the central and southern Appalachians. This boundary would be the primary focus for convective development each afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the 70s F along with moderate to strong instability would likely support an isolated severe threat. However, considerable uncertainty exists concerning the timing of the front. For this reason, predictability is low at this extended range.
..Broyles.. 08/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, August 17
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, August 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, August 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, August 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, August 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, August 17 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100854 SPC AC 100854
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6
A mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward through the north-central U.S. on Thursday and into the Great Lakes region on Friday. At the surface, a moist axis is forecast to remain in place from the central Plains east-southeastward into the lower Ohio Valley. Moderate to strong instability along the moist axis will make isolated severe thunderstorms possible each afternoon and evening. Additionally, a severe threat may develop near mid-level shortwave troughs that are forecast to move through the northern Plains and Mid-Atlantic on Friday.
On Saturday, a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move through the Great Lakes region. Moderate to strong instability may be in place over much of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio by afternoon. Along the northern edge of the stronger instability, isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible from Lower Michigan eastward into the central Appalachians Saturday afternoon. Additional severe storms may develop along an axis of moderate instability over parts of the central Plains in the afternoon and evening.
Concerning the severe potential from Thursday to Saturday, considerable variance exists among the model solutions concerning the position of features, suggesting uncertainty is still too great to add a threat area.
Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8
From Sunday into Monday, a broad cyclonic flow pattern is forecast to develop over the northeastern U.S. A cold front is forecast to move southward across the central and southern Appalachians. This boundary would be the primary focus for convective development each afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the 70s F along with moderate to strong instability would likely support an isolated severe threat. However, considerable uncertainty exists concerning the timing of the front. For this reason, predictability is low at this extended range.
..Broyles.. 08/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, August 10
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 30%
- Tuesday, August 11
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 30%
- Wednesday, August 12
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Thursday, August 13
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, August 14
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, August 15
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, August 16
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, August 17
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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