Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Thursday, June 4

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail and damaging winds are possible today from parts of the northern High Plains across northern Nebraska and much of South Dakota. More isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging winds appear possible farther south across portions of the central Plains.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 040600

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail and damaging winds are possible today from parts of the northern High Plains across northern Nebraska and much of South Dakota. More isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging winds appear possible farther south across portions of the central Plains.

Synopsis

Broadly zonal mid-level flow across the northern CONUS will persist on Thursday, with a subtropical ridge located across the northern Gulf. Additionally, a weak mid-level vorticity maximum/short-wave trough across the southern/central Plains will continue to weaken/open and begin merging into the main belt of westerlies across the north-central US.

At the surface, a weak surface low will develop during the day across the central High Plains. This low will move south and east into north-central Kansas/south-central Nebraska overnight.

### Portions of the Northern Plains

Embedded within the broadly zonal flow are several subtle short-wave troughs. One of these troughs will move from the northern Rockies across the northern Plains. Ahead of this feature, moderate instability will develop, with surface-based CAPE between 1500-2000 J/kg likely. As weak height falls overspread the region, a surface low across eastern Wyoming will move south and east into northeast Colorado and eventually into the central Plains. To the north of this low, easterly/southeasterly upslope flow and increasing large-scale ascent will combine for thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon. Supercells will be possible as the southeasterly surface winds and westerly mid-level flow results in 40-50 knots of vertical shear. Steep mid-level lapse rates will support large to very large hail and the potential for damaging thunderstorm winds. A tornado or two will be possible with any storm that can interact with the synoptic front.

Another area for storms will likely occur farther east, across eastern South Dakota along a residual/slow-moving cold front. Moderate instability and weak-to-moderate shear will support some thunderstorm organization. Large hail will be possible with initial development, with a tendency for storms to grow upscale and transition to a damaging wind threat.

### Central Kansas northeast into Central Iowa

A remnant MCV/sub-synoptic low/mid-level trough located across the Southern Plains this morning will slowly lift north/northeast across the Central Plains during the day. Ahead of this feature, surface dewpoints will rise into the upper-60Fs to low-70Fs, resulting. Diurnal heating should result in increasing instability during the day, as suggested by the HREF mean surface-based CAPE reaching between 1000-1500 J/kg and localized areas approaching 2000-2500 J/kg.

With several days of convection upstream of northeast Kansas into southwest Iowa in the elevated mixed layer source region, forecast soundings across the region reflect a largely uncapped environment during the afternoon. The result should be multiple areas/rounds of convective development during the afternoon and evening hours. The moist environment and potential for moderate instability will result in a potential for strong thunderstorm winds and marginally severe hail. Additionally, forecast guidance shows an increasing low-level mass field response during the evening hours, resulting in increasing low-level curvature/shear. Thus, a tornado threat may materialize during the late afternoon/evening hours, especially with any thunderstorms that can remain discrete.

..Marsh/Moore.. 06/04/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Friday, June 5

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe storms capable of large to very large hail, damaging winds with potentially significant gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes are expected Friday afternoon into night across portions of the central Plains into upper Great Lakes.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 040521

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA…NORTHERN KANSAS… MUCH OF IA…INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe storms capable of large to very large hail, damaging winds with potentially significant gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes are expected Friday afternoon into night across portions of the central Plains into upper Great Lakes.

Synopsis

A series of weak, mid-level disturbances will translate from the northern Plains into the upper Great Lakes, ahead of a building ridge from central Canada into the northern Plains. At the surface, the primary focus for strong to severe thunderstorm development is a front, which is expected to stretch from the western UP of MI southwest through the mid MO Valley into the central High Plains by mid-afternoon Friday. A surface low is forecast to develop along the front over south-central NE or north-central KS, with a dryline extending south-southwest from that feature into northwest OK.

### Central Plains into the Upper Great Lakes

Latest guidance is suggestive that the combination of steep mid-level lapse rates and boundary-layer dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s will support strong instability along and south of the NE/IA segment of the front with HREF mean SBCAPE as high as 3000-4000+ J/kg. Forecast instability decreases with northeastward extent into the upper Midwest, due in part to the potential for early-day storms and lingering cloud cover.

While mid-level heights are forecast to rise through the day across the central Plains, strong heating west of the dryline and south of the surface front should sufficiently erode the cap for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon into early evening in the vicinity of the triple point over south-central NE. Locally backed near-surface winds in that area will offset somewhat marginal mid-level flow to yield 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear, which will support supercell storm modes, given the degree of instability. Large to very large hail and perhaps a couple tornadoes will be possible in the early life cycle of the storms, with a subsequent transition to more of a damaging wind threat (with significant gusts possible) by mid/late evening.

Additional severe storms are expected farther east along the front into IA during the afternoon and evening hours with strong instability and modest vertical shear supporting a threat for large to very large hail and severe wind gusts.

Should subsequent model guidance show higher confidence in more concentrated storm development along the NE/IA segment of the front, an upgrade to a level 3/Enhanced Risk may be considered.

Farther northeast along the front across the upper Midwest, the diffuse nature of the boundary casts some uncertainty on exactly where the favored area for diurnally enhanced storm development will be. Nonetheless, the presence of a moderately unstable air mass and modest deep-layer shear will be supportive of a few severe storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. An isolated severe-weather threat may continue to spread east into the upper Great Lakes Friday evening into night, driven largely by warm advection along a westerly low-level jet.

..Mead.. 06/04/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Saturday, June 6

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030845 SPC AC 030845

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Saturday

Model guidance is in good agreement in the progression of a short-wave trough from the Great Lakes into Northeast, with a strong upstream system moving through the Canada Rockies and Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. Elsewhere, a mid-level low will track through the southern and central Plains. In the low levels, a cold front is forecast to move through the Great Lakes into the OH Valley and Northeast, while a lee cyclone deepens over the northern High Plains along a separate cold front emerging from the northern Rockies.

The most probable location for organized severe thunderstorm development appears to be in the vicinity of the lee cyclone and front in portions of eastern MT and western ND Saturday afternoon and evening. There, steep lapse rates and moderate instability will coincide with steadily strengthening deep-layer shear. Elsewhere, at least isolated severe storms appear possible along the cold front from portions of the Great Lakes into the OH Valley and the Northeast, as well as in parts of TX, to the southeast of the upper low.

### Day5/Sunday

A short-wave trough will continue through the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, while the bulk of ensemble guidance suggests the northern Rockies disturbance will lift northeast into the Canadian Prairie Provinces. Meanwhile, the central/southern Plains low is forecast to evolve into an open wave while moving into the mid/lower MO Valley and Ozark Plateau. The models indicate the potential for moderate to strong instability to develop across the northern Plains warm sector on Sunday afternoon. However, there is some signal that the strongest vertical shear will be displaced to the west of the cold front. Furthermore, given that the strongest forcing for ascent is expected to lift north of the International Border, residual capping across the warm sector may limit storm coverage. Given these concerns, no probabilities will be included in this forecast.

Elsewhere, at least isolated severe storms appears possible along the cold front in portions of the Northeast into Mid-Atlantic Sunday afternoon.

### Day 6-8/Monday through Wednesday

Ensemble guidance is suggestive that mid-level troughing will evolve along the West Coast early next week, with that feature slowly advancing through the Interior West. Considerably more spread is evident in the deterministic models, with low confidence in any one solution. In general, it appears that the stronger mid-level flow associated with the western U.S. trough may begin to overspread portions of the northern and central High Plains by Tuesday and/or Wednesday, where a moist and unstable air mass is expected to reside. Should confidence increase in the finer-scale details of the pattern, unconditional 15% probabilities may need to be included during this time frame.

..Mead.. 06/03/2026

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Outlook for Sunday, June 7

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030845 SPC AC 030845

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Saturday

Model guidance is in good agreement in the progression of a short-wave trough from the Great Lakes into Northeast, with a strong upstream system moving through the Canada Rockies and Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. Elsewhere, a mid-level low will track through the southern and central Plains. In the low levels, a cold front is forecast to move through the Great Lakes into the OH Valley and Northeast, while a lee cyclone deepens over the northern High Plains along a separate cold front emerging from the northern Rockies.

The most probable location for organized severe thunderstorm development appears to be in the vicinity of the lee cyclone and front in portions of eastern MT and western ND Saturday afternoon and evening. There, steep lapse rates and moderate instability will coincide with steadily strengthening deep-layer shear. Elsewhere, at least isolated severe storms appear possible along the cold front from portions of the Great Lakes into the OH Valley and the Northeast, as well as in parts of TX, to the southeast of the upper low.

### Day5/Sunday

A short-wave trough will continue through the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, while the bulk of ensemble guidance suggests the northern Rockies disturbance will lift northeast into the Canadian Prairie Provinces. Meanwhile, the central/southern Plains low is forecast to evolve into an open wave while moving into the mid/lower MO Valley and Ozark Plateau. The models indicate the potential for moderate to strong instability to develop across the northern Plains warm sector on Sunday afternoon. However, there is some signal that the strongest vertical shear will be displaced to the west of the cold front. Furthermore, given that the strongest forcing for ascent is expected to lift north of the International Border, residual capping across the warm sector may limit storm coverage. Given these concerns, no probabilities will be included in this forecast.

Elsewhere, at least isolated severe storms appears possible along the cold front in portions of the Northeast into Mid-Atlantic Sunday afternoon.

### Day 6-8/Monday through Wednesday

Ensemble guidance is suggestive that mid-level troughing will evolve along the West Coast early next week, with that feature slowly advancing through the Interior West. Considerably more spread is evident in the deterministic models, with low confidence in any one solution. In general, it appears that the stronger mid-level flow associated with the western U.S. trough may begin to overspread portions of the northern and central High Plains by Tuesday and/or Wednesday, where a moist and unstable air mass is expected to reside. Should confidence increase in the finer-scale details of the pattern, unconditional 15% probabilities may need to be included during this time frame.

..Mead.. 06/03/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, June 8

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030845 SPC AC 030845

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Saturday

Model guidance is in good agreement in the progression of a short-wave trough from the Great Lakes into Northeast, with a strong upstream system moving through the Canada Rockies and Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. Elsewhere, a mid-level low will track through the southern and central Plains. In the low levels, a cold front is forecast to move through the Great Lakes into the OH Valley and Northeast, while a lee cyclone deepens over the northern High Plains along a separate cold front emerging from the northern Rockies.

The most probable location for organized severe thunderstorm development appears to be in the vicinity of the lee cyclone and front in portions of eastern MT and western ND Saturday afternoon and evening. There, steep lapse rates and moderate instability will coincide with steadily strengthening deep-layer shear. Elsewhere, at least isolated severe storms appear possible along the cold front from portions of the Great Lakes into the OH Valley and the Northeast, as well as in parts of TX, to the southeast of the upper low.

### Day5/Sunday

A short-wave trough will continue through the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, while the bulk of ensemble guidance suggests the northern Rockies disturbance will lift northeast into the Canadian Prairie Provinces. Meanwhile, the central/southern Plains low is forecast to evolve into an open wave while moving into the mid/lower MO Valley and Ozark Plateau. The models indicate the potential for moderate to strong instability to develop across the northern Plains warm sector on Sunday afternoon. However, there is some signal that the strongest vertical shear will be displaced to the west of the cold front. Furthermore, given that the strongest forcing for ascent is expected to lift north of the International Border, residual capping across the warm sector may limit storm coverage. Given these concerns, no probabilities will be included in this forecast.

Elsewhere, at least isolated severe storms appears possible along the cold front in portions of the Northeast into Mid-Atlantic Sunday afternoon.

### Day 6-8/Monday through Wednesday

Ensemble guidance is suggestive that mid-level troughing will evolve along the West Coast early next week, with that feature slowly advancing through the Interior West. Considerably more spread is evident in the deterministic models, with low confidence in any one solution. In general, it appears that the stronger mid-level flow associated with the western U.S. trough may begin to overspread portions of the northern and central High Plains by Tuesday and/or Wednesday, where a moist and unstable air mass is expected to reside. Should confidence increase in the finer-scale details of the pattern, unconditional 15% probabilities may need to be included during this time frame.

..Mead.. 06/03/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, June 9

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030845 SPC AC 030845

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Saturday

Model guidance is in good agreement in the progression of a short-wave trough from the Great Lakes into Northeast, with a strong upstream system moving through the Canada Rockies and Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. Elsewhere, a mid-level low will track through the southern and central Plains. In the low levels, a cold front is forecast to move through the Great Lakes into the OH Valley and Northeast, while a lee cyclone deepens over the northern High Plains along a separate cold front emerging from the northern Rockies.

The most probable location for organized severe thunderstorm development appears to be in the vicinity of the lee cyclone and front in portions of eastern MT and western ND Saturday afternoon and evening. There, steep lapse rates and moderate instability will coincide with steadily strengthening deep-layer shear. Elsewhere, at least isolated severe storms appear possible along the cold front from portions of the Great Lakes into the OH Valley and the Northeast, as well as in parts of TX, to the southeast of the upper low.

### Day5/Sunday

A short-wave trough will continue through the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, while the bulk of ensemble guidance suggests the northern Rockies disturbance will lift northeast into the Canadian Prairie Provinces. Meanwhile, the central/southern Plains low is forecast to evolve into an open wave while moving into the mid/lower MO Valley and Ozark Plateau. The models indicate the potential for moderate to strong instability to develop across the northern Plains warm sector on Sunday afternoon. However, there is some signal that the strongest vertical shear will be displaced to the west of the cold front. Furthermore, given that the strongest forcing for ascent is expected to lift north of the International Border, residual capping across the warm sector may limit storm coverage. Given these concerns, no probabilities will be included in this forecast.

Elsewhere, at least isolated severe storms appears possible along the cold front in portions of the Northeast into Mid-Atlantic Sunday afternoon.

### Day 6-8/Monday through Wednesday

Ensemble guidance is suggestive that mid-level troughing will evolve along the West Coast early next week, with that feature slowly advancing through the Interior West. Considerably more spread is evident in the deterministic models, with low confidence in any one solution. In general, it appears that the stronger mid-level flow associated with the western U.S. trough may begin to overspread portions of the northern and central High Plains by Tuesday and/or Wednesday, where a moist and unstable air mass is expected to reside. Should confidence increase in the finer-scale details of the pattern, unconditional 15% probabilities may need to be included during this time frame.

..Mead.. 06/03/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, June 10

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030845 SPC AC 030845

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Saturday

Model guidance is in good agreement in the progression of a short-wave trough from the Great Lakes into Northeast, with a strong upstream system moving through the Canada Rockies and Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. Elsewhere, a mid-level low will track through the southern and central Plains. In the low levels, a cold front is forecast to move through the Great Lakes into the OH Valley and Northeast, while a lee cyclone deepens over the northern High Plains along a separate cold front emerging from the northern Rockies.

The most probable location for organized severe thunderstorm development appears to be in the vicinity of the lee cyclone and front in portions of eastern MT and western ND Saturday afternoon and evening. There, steep lapse rates and moderate instability will coincide with steadily strengthening deep-layer shear. Elsewhere, at least isolated severe storms appear possible along the cold front from portions of the Great Lakes into the OH Valley and the Northeast, as well as in parts of TX, to the southeast of the upper low.

### Day5/Sunday

A short-wave trough will continue through the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, while the bulk of ensemble guidance suggests the northern Rockies disturbance will lift northeast into the Canadian Prairie Provinces. Meanwhile, the central/southern Plains low is forecast to evolve into an open wave while moving into the mid/lower MO Valley and Ozark Plateau. The models indicate the potential for moderate to strong instability to develop across the northern Plains warm sector on Sunday afternoon. However, there is some signal that the strongest vertical shear will be displaced to the west of the cold front. Furthermore, given that the strongest forcing for ascent is expected to lift north of the International Border, residual capping across the warm sector may limit storm coverage. Given these concerns, no probabilities will be included in this forecast.

Elsewhere, at least isolated severe storms appears possible along the cold front in portions of the Northeast into Mid-Atlantic Sunday afternoon.

### Day 6-8/Monday through Wednesday

Ensemble guidance is suggestive that mid-level troughing will evolve along the West Coast early next week, with that feature slowly advancing through the Interior West. Considerably more spread is evident in the deterministic models, with low confidence in any one solution. In general, it appears that the stronger mid-level flow associated with the western U.S. trough may begin to overspread portions of the northern and central High Plains by Tuesday and/or Wednesday, where a moist and unstable air mass is expected to reside. Should confidence increase in the finer-scale details of the pattern, unconditional 15% probabilities may need to be included during this time frame.

..Mead.. 06/03/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Thursday, June 4

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Friday, June 5

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Saturday, June 6

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Sunday, June 7

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Monday, June 8

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Tuesday, June 9

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Wednesday, June 10

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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