Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, May 25
Outlook Summary
The risk for organized severe thunderstorm development appears low across much of the U.S. today through tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 250548
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY…CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
### SUMMARY
The risk for organized severe thunderstorm development appears low across much of the U.S. today through tonight.
Discussion
Amplification within the westerlies across the northern mid-latitude Pacific is ongoing. Near the leading edge of this regime, a significant short wave trough and embedded mid-level cyclone are now digging toward the Pacific Northwest coast, and forecast to progress inland across coastal areas later today through tonight. As this occurs, the center of broad, weak troughing emerging from the subtropical eastern Pacific is forecast to sharpen some, along a negatively tilted axis across the southern Great Basin through northern Mexican Plateau by daybreak Tuesday.
Downstream, weak troughing across eastern Texas and the western Gulf Basin will tend to slowly shift north-northeastward toward the lower Mississippi Valley, as a high remains prominent across the subtropical western Atlantic. In higher latitudes, mid-level ridging is forecast to continue to build to the east the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies. This will include further mid-level height rises across the Missouri Valley through Upper Midwest and adjacent Great Lakes region.
In lower levels, a cold front likely will advance inland across Washington, Oregon and much of northern California, while surface troughing deepens across much of the Great Basin and northern Rockies through northern Great Plains. However, seasonably moist boundary-layer air appears likely to generally remain confined to portions of the southern Great Plains and lower Mississippi Valley through Southeast and Mid Atlantic.
Minnesota Arrowhead/adjacent Upper Great Lakes
Mid-level heights are forecast to continue to rise across the region today, even as a fairly significant short wave trough and associated forcing for ascent dig across northwestern Ontario, generally well to the north of the upper Great Lakes region. Even so, convection allowing and related machine learning guidance continue to suggest that isolated thunderstorm development is possible as far south as the Minnesota Arrowhead vicinity, in an environment that could become supportive of a supercell. As a result, 5 percent severe weather probabilities will be maintained. However, given the lack of better available low-level moisture and the spread evident within guidance concerning potential destabilization, these may be too high.
Central Great Plains and adjacent Middle Missouri Valley
Calibrated thunderstorm probabilities from most ensemble output suggest that widely scattered thunderstorm development is probable by late this afternoon, in a corridor of stronger potential boundary-layer destabilization within the lee surface troughing, from portions of southwestern Nebraska through southwestern Minnesota/northwestern Iowa. If inhibition associated with continuing mid-level height rises and more substantive lower/mid-tropospheric warming is overcome, thermodynamic profiles may be conducive to locally strong to severe surface gusts and some hail, particularly where a narrow corridor of better low-level moisture is maintained across the northeastern Nebraska through southern Minnesota vicinity.
Parts of southwestern Texas into south central New Mexico
Stronger deep-layer layer shear and forcing for ascent, within the exit region of a strong subtropical jet nosing into the northern Mexican Plateau, may support and enhance thunderstorm development across parts of northeastern Chihuahua into adjacent portions of the Rio Grande Valley by late this afternoon. This probably will be rooted within a weakly unstable, but deeply mixed boundary layer supportive of at least a risk for strong to severe wind gusts.
..Kerr/Chalmers.. 05/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Tuesday, May 26
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe storms will be possible across western Texas into southeastern New Mexico Tuesday afternoon and evening. Across this region, large hail, severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado will be possible.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 250548
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe storms will be possible across western Texas into southeastern New Mexico Tuesday afternoon and evening. Across this region, large hail, severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado will be possible.
Synopsis
The pattern on D2/Tuesday will include a deepening mid-level low across the Pacific Northwest and height rises with a building high downstream across the central/northern US. A shortwave with multiple embedded vorticity maximas will move across Texas. This will be the focus of scattered severe thunderstorm development by the afternoon.
### Eastern New Mexico and Western Texas
As forcing for ascent increases across Texas Tuesday afternoon, widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected from the Davis Mountains to the Edwards Plateau and to the southern Permian Basin. Moderate instability and steep low to mid-level lapse rates are forecast across the region, with increasing deep layer shear to around 30-40 kts. Mode will likely include a few supercells and multi-cell clusters capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. Forecast soundings indicate low-level SRH may increase through the late afternoon/evening, which could support some increase in tornado potential.
Through time, cells are progged to cluster and move downstream into portions of south Texas. Should cells be able to maintain cold pool organization, damaging wind potential may extend to the southern Texas coast. The Slight Risk remains unchanged but a minor eastward expansion was given to the Marginal Risk to account for this potential.
Montana
Scattered thunderstorm activity is expected with the upper trough across portions of southern Idaho into Montana. Modest instability and strengthening deep layer shear amid deeply mixed profiles may allow for a few stronger storms with potential for marginally severe hail and severe gusts.
..Thornton.. 05/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Wednesday, May 27
Outlook Summary
Scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible from the Pacific Northwest to the Intermountain West and from the Plains to the Southeastern US on Wednesday. Organized severe potential is expected to remain low.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 250719
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible from the Pacific Northwest to the Intermountain West and from the Plains to the Southeastern US on Wednesday. Organized severe potential is expected to remain low.
Discussion
The western US trough will become cut off and shift southward into the Great Basin on Wednesday, with scattered thunderstorm activity continuing across portions of the Pacific Northwest into the Intermountain West. A few strong gusts will be possible with storms across northern Idaho into western Montana. Overall, deep layer shear will largely be west of the marginal instability across central/eastern Montana, which will likely keep organized severe potential low. Model guidance that typically exhibits a moist-bias does suggest that higher instability does nudge into northern Montana and northern Idaho. Should more model consensus in this scenario increase, low probabilities may need to be introduced in upcoming outlook updates.
Widely scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible across portions of the central/southern Plains into the southeast Wednesday afternoon. Overall, weak flow beneath the mid-level ridge will keep severe storm potential low.
A few stronger storms will be possible across the Mid Atlantic as enhanced westerly flow from a trough across the northeast overspreads the region. Though deep layer shear will be around 35-40 kts, forecast soundings depict cloudy conditions through the morning, with skinny and elongated CAPE profiles and only marginal instability. This will likely temper the severe potential, though a few strong gusts will remain possible.
..Thornton.. 05/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Thursday, May 28
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, May 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, May 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, May 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, May 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, June 1 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250843 SPC AC 250843
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Thursday through D5/Friday
The western low is expected to shift northward again and phase with the northern jet stream D4/Thursday - D5/Friday. There is low confidence in chances for strong to severe storms, pending details on moisture, across the Intermountain West and northern Rockies.
Guidance suggests that as the western trough shifts northward and weak disturbances rotate across the Rockies, lee troughing across the Plains may strengthen D5/Friday, bringing a potential for low end severe risk into the central/northern High Plains. For now confidence in any corridors of organized severe risk remain too low.
A cold front will sag southward across the east coast D4/Thursday through D5/Friday as enhanced flow digs an upper level trough across Quebec southward into the eastern Great Lakes. Some low end severe potential may accompany this frontal passage each day, but uncertainty remains high in overlap of deep layer shear with better moisture/instability.
D6/Saturday through D8/Monday
Toward the end of next weekend D7/Sunday through D8/Monday, ensemble guidance is increasing in confidence for a large scale ridge to build in across the central/western US with rising heights and warming temperatures. Building surface high pressure across the Midwest/Great Lakes may shunt moisture southward to the Gulf states. Should this pattern continue to hold, severe potential will remain low through much of the CONUS.
..Thornton.. 05/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, May 29
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, May 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, May 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, May 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, May 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, June 1 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250843 SPC AC 250843
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Thursday through D5/Friday
The western low is expected to shift northward again and phase with the northern jet stream D4/Thursday - D5/Friday. There is low confidence in chances for strong to severe storms, pending details on moisture, across the Intermountain West and northern Rockies.
Guidance suggests that as the western trough shifts northward and weak disturbances rotate across the Rockies, lee troughing across the Plains may strengthen D5/Friday, bringing a potential for low end severe risk into the central/northern High Plains. For now confidence in any corridors of organized severe risk remain too low.
A cold front will sag southward across the east coast D4/Thursday through D5/Friday as enhanced flow digs an upper level trough across Quebec southward into the eastern Great Lakes. Some low end severe potential may accompany this frontal passage each day, but uncertainty remains high in overlap of deep layer shear with better moisture/instability.
D6/Saturday through D8/Monday
Toward the end of next weekend D7/Sunday through D8/Monday, ensemble guidance is increasing in confidence for a large scale ridge to build in across the central/western US with rising heights and warming temperatures. Building surface high pressure across the Midwest/Great Lakes may shunt moisture southward to the Gulf states. Should this pattern continue to hold, severe potential will remain low through much of the CONUS.
..Thornton.. 05/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, May 30
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, May 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, May 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, May 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, May 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, June 1 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250843 SPC AC 250843
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Thursday through D5/Friday
The western low is expected to shift northward again and phase with the northern jet stream D4/Thursday - D5/Friday. There is low confidence in chances for strong to severe storms, pending details on moisture, across the Intermountain West and northern Rockies.
Guidance suggests that as the western trough shifts northward and weak disturbances rotate across the Rockies, lee troughing across the Plains may strengthen D5/Friday, bringing a potential for low end severe risk into the central/northern High Plains. For now confidence in any corridors of organized severe risk remain too low.
A cold front will sag southward across the east coast D4/Thursday through D5/Friday as enhanced flow digs an upper level trough across Quebec southward into the eastern Great Lakes. Some low end severe potential may accompany this frontal passage each day, but uncertainty remains high in overlap of deep layer shear with better moisture/instability.
D6/Saturday through D8/Monday
Toward the end of next weekend D7/Sunday through D8/Monday, ensemble guidance is increasing in confidence for a large scale ridge to build in across the central/western US with rising heights and warming temperatures. Building surface high pressure across the Midwest/Great Lakes may shunt moisture southward to the Gulf states. Should this pattern continue to hold, severe potential will remain low through much of the CONUS.
..Thornton.. 05/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, May 31
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, May 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, May 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, May 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, May 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, June 1 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250843 SPC AC 250843
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Thursday through D5/Friday
The western low is expected to shift northward again and phase with the northern jet stream D4/Thursday - D5/Friday. There is low confidence in chances for strong to severe storms, pending details on moisture, across the Intermountain West and northern Rockies.
Guidance suggests that as the western trough shifts northward and weak disturbances rotate across the Rockies, lee troughing across the Plains may strengthen D5/Friday, bringing a potential for low end severe risk into the central/northern High Plains. For now confidence in any corridors of organized severe risk remain too low.
A cold front will sag southward across the east coast D4/Thursday through D5/Friday as enhanced flow digs an upper level trough across Quebec southward into the eastern Great Lakes. Some low end severe potential may accompany this frontal passage each day, but uncertainty remains high in overlap of deep layer shear with better moisture/instability.
D6/Saturday through D8/Monday
Toward the end of next weekend D7/Sunday through D8/Monday, ensemble guidance is increasing in confidence for a large scale ridge to build in across the central/western US with rising heights and warming temperatures. Building surface high pressure across the Midwest/Great Lakes may shunt moisture southward to the Gulf states. Should this pattern continue to hold, severe potential will remain low through much of the CONUS.
..Thornton.. 05/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, June 1
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, May 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, May 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, May 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, May 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, June 1 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250843 SPC AC 250843
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Thursday through D5/Friday
The western low is expected to shift northward again and phase with the northern jet stream D4/Thursday - D5/Friday. There is low confidence in chances for strong to severe storms, pending details on moisture, across the Intermountain West and northern Rockies.
Guidance suggests that as the western trough shifts northward and weak disturbances rotate across the Rockies, lee troughing across the Plains may strengthen D5/Friday, bringing a potential for low end severe risk into the central/northern High Plains. For now confidence in any corridors of organized severe risk remain too low.
A cold front will sag southward across the east coast D4/Thursday through D5/Friday as enhanced flow digs an upper level trough across Quebec southward into the eastern Great Lakes. Some low end severe potential may accompany this frontal passage each day, but uncertainty remains high in overlap of deep layer shear with better moisture/instability.
D6/Saturday through D8/Monday
Toward the end of next weekend D7/Sunday through D8/Monday, ensemble guidance is increasing in confidence for a large scale ridge to build in across the central/western US with rising heights and warming temperatures. Building surface high pressure across the Midwest/Great Lakes may shunt moisture southward to the Gulf states. Should this pattern continue to hold, severe potential will remain low through much of the CONUS.
..Thornton.. 05/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, May 25
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Tuesday, May 26
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Wednesday, May 27
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Thursday, May 28
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, May 29
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, May 30
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, May 31
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, June 1
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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