Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Sunday, April 19

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 191243

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Valid 191300Z - 201200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today.

Synopsis

Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a large-scale upper trough from James Bay southward through the Great Lakes and TN Valley. The upper trough will continue to move east and reach the Lower Great Lakes and East Coast by daybreak Monday. In the low levels, a cold front will push east of the Carolina coast by early afternoon. Surface high pressure will influence conditions across the central and eastern states in wake of the cold front. Weak instability will yield isolated thunderstorms over parts of the south Florida, eastern North Carolina, and weak elevated storms over south Texas.

..Smith/Thompson.. 04/19/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

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Outlook for Monday, April 20

Outlook Summary

Severe storms are not expected on Monday.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 190546

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Severe storms are not expected on Monday.

Synopsis

A midlevel trough will progress from the Northeast off the New England coast on Monday, while the trailing cold front continues southward into the Caribbean Sea. In the wake of this system, high pressure and a relatively dry airmass will limit thunderstorm potential across much of the CONUS.

South Florida

North of the aforementioned front, diurnal heating of a moist post-frontal airmass characterized by dewpoints in the mid-60s should support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. Weak buoyancy and a lack of significant large-scale ascent should preclude any severe threat.

Southwest into Texas

Farther west, a subtle, low-amplitude midlevel wave moving into South Texas, combined with weak low-level warm advection and modest moisture return will support a few rounds of isolated thunderstorms across Southwest Texas into Central Texas.

Additionally, isolated diurnal thunderstorms are possible across the Southwest as midlevel moisture impinges on the region. This activity is expected to remain focused over the higher terrain, and given the weak instability and modest forcing, severe weather is not expected.

..Marsh.. 04/19/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, April 21

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms will be possible across the western CONUS, the south-central CONUS, and the southern Great Lakes. No severe weather is anticipated.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 190727

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms will be possible across the western CONUS, the south-central CONUS, and the southern Great Lakes. No severe weather is anticipated.

Synopsis

A large-scale midlevel trough will move push inland across the western CONUS into the Great Basin on Wednesday, with downstream ridging building across the central CONUS in response. Across the Northeast, northwest flow aloft will prevail downstream of the central CONUS ridge. An embedded jet streak and associated vorticity maximum within the northwest flow will aid driving a weak surface low and attendant frontal boundary southeast across the Great Lakes through the forecast period. Meanwhile, the surface ridge across the Southeast will move east, just offshore of the Southeast Atlantic Coast, promoting return flow across the Plains. The return flow will be aided by the development of lee troughing across much of the High Plains.

Western US

Scattered showers are expected across portions of the West in association with the inland-moving large-scale trough. Seasonably cool midlevel temperatures will support enough instability for a few thunderstorms, although severe potential is very low.

South-central US

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the region within the return flow regime. Here, weak warm-air advection combined with between 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE will support convective development. Weak vertical shear and the lack of strong forcing for ascent should limit any severe potential.

Southern Great Lakes

Scattered showers a few thunderstorms will be possible within the surface frontal zone as it pushes south/southeast during the day. Instability around 500 J/kg MUCAPE and weak effective layer shear should preclude a more robust severe weather event, but a strong wind gust or two may be possible.

..Marsh.. 04/19/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, April 22

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190900 SPC AC 190900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

DISCUSSION

A western trough will take hold in the days preceding this convective period. Ahead of this trough moisture will return northward through the central Plains, with 50F dewpoints reaching perhaps as far north as the Canadian border during Wednesday/Day-4. This return flow setup and western trough will set the stage for multiple days of severe weather potential.

On Wednesday/Day-4, a lobe of vorticity will eject northeast out of the western longwave trough across the central and northern Plains. As this occurs, surface cyclogenesis should take place across the far northern Plains. To the south of this surface low, a dryline should sharpen across western Nebraska and Kansas. At the same time, vertical shear should strengthen as the shortwave moves northeast across the region. The kinematic profiles will support supercells initiating along the dryline. However, concerns remain about the quality of the moisture to the east of the dryline and subsequently as to the number of potential thunderstorms that may develop. This uncertainty precluded the introduction of unconditional 15% probabilities at this time.

On Thursday/Day-5, the shortwave trough/midlevel low will deepen as it slowly moves north-northeast during the day. This will help maintain a strong surface cyclone across the northern Plains, with strong southerly winds advecting Gulf moisture northward to the east of the north-south oriented frontal boundary. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible along and east of the aforementioned frontal boundary across a large portion of the central US. Strong vertical wind shear across this frontal boundary will promote severe potential from Oklahoma northward to perhaps as far north as Minnesota. The northern extent of the severe potential will be delimited by the degree of moisture return, and have expanded the unconditional 15% probability area northward into Iowa to account for the increasing confidence in severe thunderstorm potential.

Overnight Thursday/Day-5, a surface cold front, augmented by convective outflow, should push east across the northern and central Plains and south-southeast across the southern Plains. Another round of severe thunderstorms will be possible on Friday/Day-6 across portions of northeast Texas/northern Louisiana and much of Arkansas as diurnal heating of a moist airmass results in MUCAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg beneath modest vertical shear associated persistent southwest midlevel flow.

The severe potential will likely persist into Saturday/Day-7 and Sunday/Day-8 across portions of the southern Plains and northern Gulf Coast states. Here, persistent western troughing will maintain an increasingly moist airmass along and south of the aforementioned frontal boundary. The location of this frontal boundary will likely be significantly impacted by the repeated rounds of thunderstorms in the prior days. Model guidance is in general agreement that at least modest westerly/southwesterly flow will persist across the southern Plains, with episodic perturbations traversing this flow field downstream of the broader large-scale western trough. However, significant differences remain with respect to the timing, strength, and location of any of these perturbations to attempt to highlight unconditional severe probabilities.

..Marsh.. 04/19/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Thursday, April 23

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190900 SPC AC 190900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

DISCUSSION

A western trough will take hold in the days preceding this convective period. Ahead of this trough moisture will return northward through the central Plains, with 50F dewpoints reaching perhaps as far north as the Canadian border during Wednesday/Day-4. This return flow setup and western trough will set the stage for multiple days of severe weather potential.

On Wednesday/Day-4, a lobe of vorticity will eject northeast out of the western longwave trough across the central and northern Plains. As this occurs, surface cyclogenesis should take place across the far northern Plains. To the south of this surface low, a dryline should sharpen across western Nebraska and Kansas. At the same time, vertical shear should strengthen as the shortwave moves northeast across the region. The kinematic profiles will support supercells initiating along the dryline. However, concerns remain about the quality of the moisture to the east of the dryline and subsequently as to the number of potential thunderstorms that may develop. This uncertainty precluded the introduction of unconditional 15% probabilities at this time.

On Thursday/Day-5, the shortwave trough/midlevel low will deepen as it slowly moves north-northeast during the day. This will help maintain a strong surface cyclone across the northern Plains, with strong southerly winds advecting Gulf moisture northward to the east of the north-south oriented frontal boundary. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible along and east of the aforementioned frontal boundary across a large portion of the central US. Strong vertical wind shear across this frontal boundary will promote severe potential from Oklahoma northward to perhaps as far north as Minnesota. The northern extent of the severe potential will be delimited by the degree of moisture return, and have expanded the unconditional 15% probability area northward into Iowa to account for the increasing confidence in severe thunderstorm potential.

Overnight Thursday/Day-5, a surface cold front, augmented by convective outflow, should push east across the northern and central Plains and south-southeast across the southern Plains. Another round of severe thunderstorms will be possible on Friday/Day-6 across portions of northeast Texas/northern Louisiana and much of Arkansas as diurnal heating of a moist airmass results in MUCAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg beneath modest vertical shear associated persistent southwest midlevel flow.

The severe potential will likely persist into Saturday/Day-7 and Sunday/Day-8 across portions of the southern Plains and northern Gulf Coast states. Here, persistent western troughing will maintain an increasingly moist airmass along and south of the aforementioned frontal boundary. The location of this frontal boundary will likely be significantly impacted by the repeated rounds of thunderstorms in the prior days. Model guidance is in general agreement that at least modest westerly/southwesterly flow will persist across the southern Plains, with episodic perturbations traversing this flow field downstream of the broader large-scale western trough. However, significant differences remain with respect to the timing, strength, and location of any of these perturbations to attempt to highlight unconditional severe probabilities.

..Marsh.. 04/19/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

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Outlook for Friday, April 24

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190900 SPC AC 190900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

DISCUSSION

A western trough will take hold in the days preceding this convective period. Ahead of this trough moisture will return northward through the central Plains, with 50F dewpoints reaching perhaps as far north as the Canadian border during Wednesday/Day-4. This return flow setup and western trough will set the stage for multiple days of severe weather potential.

On Wednesday/Day-4, a lobe of vorticity will eject northeast out of the western longwave trough across the central and northern Plains. As this occurs, surface cyclogenesis should take place across the far northern Plains. To the south of this surface low, a dryline should sharpen across western Nebraska and Kansas. At the same time, vertical shear should strengthen as the shortwave moves northeast across the region. The kinematic profiles will support supercells initiating along the dryline. However, concerns remain about the quality of the moisture to the east of the dryline and subsequently as to the number of potential thunderstorms that may develop. This uncertainty precluded the introduction of unconditional 15% probabilities at this time.

On Thursday/Day-5, the shortwave trough/midlevel low will deepen as it slowly moves north-northeast during the day. This will help maintain a strong surface cyclone across the northern Plains, with strong southerly winds advecting Gulf moisture northward to the east of the north-south oriented frontal boundary. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible along and east of the aforementioned frontal boundary across a large portion of the central US. Strong vertical wind shear across this frontal boundary will promote severe potential from Oklahoma northward to perhaps as far north as Minnesota. The northern extent of the severe potential will be delimited by the degree of moisture return, and have expanded the unconditional 15% probability area northward into Iowa to account for the increasing confidence in severe thunderstorm potential.

Overnight Thursday/Day-5, a surface cold front, augmented by convective outflow, should push east across the northern and central Plains and south-southeast across the southern Plains. Another round of severe thunderstorms will be possible on Friday/Day-6 across portions of northeast Texas/northern Louisiana and much of Arkansas as diurnal heating of a moist airmass results in MUCAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg beneath modest vertical shear associated persistent southwest midlevel flow.

The severe potential will likely persist into Saturday/Day-7 and Sunday/Day-8 across portions of the southern Plains and northern Gulf Coast states. Here, persistent western troughing will maintain an increasingly moist airmass along and south of the aforementioned frontal boundary. The location of this frontal boundary will likely be significantly impacted by the repeated rounds of thunderstorms in the prior days. Model guidance is in general agreement that at least modest westerly/southwesterly flow will persist across the southern Plains, with episodic perturbations traversing this flow field downstream of the broader large-scale western trough. However, significant differences remain with respect to the timing, strength, and location of any of these perturbations to attempt to highlight unconditional severe probabilities.

..Marsh.. 04/19/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

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Outlook for Saturday, April 25

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190900 SPC AC 190900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

DISCUSSION

A western trough will take hold in the days preceding this convective period. Ahead of this trough moisture will return northward through the central Plains, with 50F dewpoints reaching perhaps as far north as the Canadian border during Wednesday/Day-4. This return flow setup and western trough will set the stage for multiple days of severe weather potential.

On Wednesday/Day-4, a lobe of vorticity will eject northeast out of the western longwave trough across the central and northern Plains. As this occurs, surface cyclogenesis should take place across the far northern Plains. To the south of this surface low, a dryline should sharpen across western Nebraska and Kansas. At the same time, vertical shear should strengthen as the shortwave moves northeast across the region. The kinematic profiles will support supercells initiating along the dryline. However, concerns remain about the quality of the moisture to the east of the dryline and subsequently as to the number of potential thunderstorms that may develop. This uncertainty precluded the introduction of unconditional 15% probabilities at this time.

On Thursday/Day-5, the shortwave trough/midlevel low will deepen as it slowly moves north-northeast during the day. This will help maintain a strong surface cyclone across the northern Plains, with strong southerly winds advecting Gulf moisture northward to the east of the north-south oriented frontal boundary. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible along and east of the aforementioned frontal boundary across a large portion of the central US. Strong vertical wind shear across this frontal boundary will promote severe potential from Oklahoma northward to perhaps as far north as Minnesota. The northern extent of the severe potential will be delimited by the degree of moisture return, and have expanded the unconditional 15% probability area northward into Iowa to account for the increasing confidence in severe thunderstorm potential.

Overnight Thursday/Day-5, a surface cold front, augmented by convective outflow, should push east across the northern and central Plains and south-southeast across the southern Plains. Another round of severe thunderstorms will be possible on Friday/Day-6 across portions of northeast Texas/northern Louisiana and much of Arkansas as diurnal heating of a moist airmass results in MUCAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg beneath modest vertical shear associated persistent southwest midlevel flow.

The severe potential will likely persist into Saturday/Day-7 and Sunday/Day-8 across portions of the southern Plains and northern Gulf Coast states. Here, persistent western troughing will maintain an increasingly moist airmass along and south of the aforementioned frontal boundary. The location of this frontal boundary will likely be significantly impacted by the repeated rounds of thunderstorms in the prior days. Model guidance is in general agreement that at least modest westerly/southwesterly flow will persist across the southern Plains, with episodic perturbations traversing this flow field downstream of the broader large-scale western trough. However, significant differences remain with respect to the timing, strength, and location of any of these perturbations to attempt to highlight unconditional severe probabilities.

..Marsh.. 04/19/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Sunday, April 26

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190900 SPC AC 190900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

DISCUSSION

A western trough will take hold in the days preceding this convective period. Ahead of this trough moisture will return northward through the central Plains, with 50F dewpoints reaching perhaps as far north as the Canadian border during Wednesday/Day-4. This return flow setup and western trough will set the stage for multiple days of severe weather potential.

On Wednesday/Day-4, a lobe of vorticity will eject northeast out of the western longwave trough across the central and northern Plains. As this occurs, surface cyclogenesis should take place across the far northern Plains. To the south of this surface low, a dryline should sharpen across western Nebraska and Kansas. At the same time, vertical shear should strengthen as the shortwave moves northeast across the region. The kinematic profiles will support supercells initiating along the dryline. However, concerns remain about the quality of the moisture to the east of the dryline and subsequently as to the number of potential thunderstorms that may develop. This uncertainty precluded the introduction of unconditional 15% probabilities at this time.

On Thursday/Day-5, the shortwave trough/midlevel low will deepen as it slowly moves north-northeast during the day. This will help maintain a strong surface cyclone across the northern Plains, with strong southerly winds advecting Gulf moisture northward to the east of the north-south oriented frontal boundary. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible along and east of the aforementioned frontal boundary across a large portion of the central US. Strong vertical wind shear across this frontal boundary will promote severe potential from Oklahoma northward to perhaps as far north as Minnesota. The northern extent of the severe potential will be delimited by the degree of moisture return, and have expanded the unconditional 15% probability area northward into Iowa to account for the increasing confidence in severe thunderstorm potential.

Overnight Thursday/Day-5, a surface cold front, augmented by convective outflow, should push east across the northern and central Plains and south-southeast across the southern Plains. Another round of severe thunderstorms will be possible on Friday/Day-6 across portions of northeast Texas/northern Louisiana and much of Arkansas as diurnal heating of a moist airmass results in MUCAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg beneath modest vertical shear associated persistent southwest midlevel flow.

The severe potential will likely persist into Saturday/Day-7 and Sunday/Day-8 across portions of the southern Plains and northern Gulf Coast states. Here, persistent western troughing will maintain an increasingly moist airmass along and south of the aforementioned frontal boundary. The location of this frontal boundary will likely be significantly impacted by the repeated rounds of thunderstorms in the prior days. Model guidance is in general agreement that at least modest westerly/southwesterly flow will persist across the southern Plains, with episodic perturbations traversing this flow field downstream of the broader large-scale western trough. However, significant differences remain with respect to the timing, strength, and location of any of these perturbations to attempt to highlight unconditional severe probabilities.

..Marsh.. 04/19/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

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National Risk Overview

Sunday, April 19

TORNADO: low

HAIL: low

WIND: low

Monday, April 20

TORNADO: low

HAIL: low

WIND: low

Tuesday, April 21

ANY SEVERE: low

Wednesday, April 22

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Thursday, April 23

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Friday, April 24

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Saturday, April 25

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Sunday, April 26

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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