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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Monday, August 31

Outlook Summary

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon into tonight across parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes into western New York, the central Plains, and lower Colorado River Valley into the Great Basin. Severe hail and strong/damaging winds should be the main threats.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 311928

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Valid 312000Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN NEW YORK…THE CENTRAL PLAINS…AND LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE GREAT BASIN

### SUMMARY

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon into tonight across parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes into western New York, the central Plains, and lower Colorado River Valley into the Great Basin. Severe hail and strong/damaging winds should be the main threats.

20z Update

Minor adjustments were made to remove the Marginal Risk across portions of northern Arizona/far southern Nevada where lingering precipitation/cloud cover is limiting instability and drier mid-level air is filtering in from the west. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information.

..Thornton.. 08/31/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026/

Upper Midwest/Great Lakes into Western New York

A closed mid/upper-level low over the northern Plains and Saskatchewan/Manitoba will move generally eastward today, with a mid-level anticyclone remaining centered over the mid MS Valley/Mid-South through the period. Between these two features, a belt of enhanced westerly mid-level winds will overspread parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. A rather moist and strongly unstable airmass is expected to be in place this afternoon across portions of WI/MI ahead of a weak front. While there are still some concerns about convective initiation and overall thunderstorm coverage, it appears that a weak mid-level perturbation over eastern NE/western IA late this morning will track northeastward towards WI by late afternoon/early evening. This feature may aid the development of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across parts of WI into the U.P. of MI.

Given strong to very strong instability and moderate to strong deep-layer shear forecast, widely spaced supercells capable of producing large hail appear possible late this afternoon into the evening across these areas, if convection develops. Considered greater hail probabilities to account for this scenario, but warm low-level temperatures (around 850 mb) and mixed signals in high-resolution guidance cast enough uncertainty on coverage to defer upgrading with this update. Thunderstorms may also spread from Lower MI into western NY tonight into early Tuesday morning. Increasing low-level moisture and related instability may support an isolated threat for damaging winds with this activity, even though lapse rates aloft should remain modest.

Central Plains

High-based thunderstorms should develop this afternoon across the higher terrain of the central Rockies/Front Range, and spread east-northeastward across the adjacent High Plains through the evening. While low-level moisture/instability will remain limited across eastern CO and vicinity, steepened low/mid-level lapse rates amid a very well-mixed boundary layer may still support isolated strong to severe downdraft winds with this activity. Occasional hail may also occur with the strongest cores. Thunderstorm coverage farther east across NE along/near a weak front remains uncertain. But, any convection which can develop and be sustained across this area may also pose an isolated severe threat.

Lower Colorado River Valley into the Great Basin

A mid-level shortwave trough over CA will move northeastward across NV today and aid thunderstorm development as the boundary layer warms into this afternoon across parts of the lower CO River Valley and Great Basin. Some enhancement to the mid-level flow is forecast, which should support sustained updrafts and possibly a few transient supercells, primarily across far eastern NV, southwest UT, and northwest AZ. Isolated severe hail could occur with these cells. But, strong to severe wind gusts will probably become the primary risk with time given steep low-level lapse rates and tendency for convection to cluster through the late afternoon/early evening.

Coastal/Southeast Texas into Southern Louisiana

Reference NHC forecasts/advisories for the latest information on PTC Five over the northern Gulf. Latest model guidance continues to suggest that low-level easterly flow on the northern side of this system will only modestly strengthen before landfall tomorrow. As such, the degree of low-level shear appears too limited to warrant low severe wind or tornado probabilities at this time.

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, September 1

Outlook Summary

Scattered strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday over parts of New York, Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Isolated severe storms may also extend westward into Nebraska.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 311730

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF PENNSYLVANIA…NEW JERSEY…AND FROM WESTERN NEW YORK TO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Scattered strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday over parts of New York, Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Isolated severe storms may also extend westward into Nebraska.

Much of Southern NY and PA…NJ…Lower Hudson Valley

Scattered morning thunderstorms are expected over parts of the region Tuesday morning, as westerly low-level winds maintain a theta-e plume. This activity is likely to wane throughout the day as low pressure redevelops over NY. Destabilization will occur generally near and west of the Hudson River, with MLCAPE averaging 3000 J/kg. This will also occur beneath midlevel northwesterly winds near 40 kt.

Storms are expected to redevelop along the effective warm front, perhaps over the lower Hudson Valley, and these would likely move southeast/to south with hail and localized damaging wind potential. Other activity may develop over northeast PA/NJ near the surface low, and, farther upstream near the Lower Great Lakes. Low-level shear will be greatest near the Hudson Valley and the instability gradient, and this increased shear could support a brief tornado.

NE into southern MN & WI

A lead wave is forecast to move out of CO and across NE, SD, and MN Tuesday. Midlevel winds are forecast to strengthen into the 40-50 kt range, though temperatures aloft will not cool much. Meanwhile, a stalled font will extend roughly from central NE into IA. Strong heating and boundary layer mixing will occur south of this front, where dewpoints should hold in the 60s F. The result will be a zone of moderate instability and shear, conditionally favoring supercells with large hail and locally damaging gusts.

Storms may develop during near the boundary and farther south near a surface low over NE as strongly heated air mass develops. Due to uncertainty in storm coverage, will maintain 5% severe probabilities.

Upper TX Coast

Potential Tropical Cyclone 5 is forecast to move toward the Upper TX Coast on Tuesday. Wind fields are forecast to remain relatively concentrated, and not particularly strong. As such, tornado potential appears low at this time. Subsequent forecasts cycles will continue to monitor the potential for stronger-than-forecast shear and possible introduction of 2% tornado probabilities.

..Jewell.. 08/31/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, September 2

Outlook Summary

Severe storms with wind and hail risk are expected from the Lower Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday. A few severe storms may also occur over parts of Montana.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 311933

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC

### SUMMARY

Severe storms with wind and hail risk are expected from the Lower Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday. A few severe storms may also occur over parts of Montana.

Lower Great Lakes to Mid Atlantic

An upper ridge will hold over the TN Valley to Appalachians, while an upper low drifts east into Quebec. In between, moderate westerlies aloft will exist, supporting favorable deep-layer shear and areas of storm organization.

At the surface, a weak surface trough should extend roughly from Lower MI into NY, with upper 60s to near 70 F dewpoints to the south. The westerly low-level winds will support air mass recovery behind any early/dying morning activity, with afternoon redevelopment expected from Lower MI into NY. Corridors of damaging winds are most likely as storms move rapidly southeastward. Deep-layer shear may also favor large hail with the more cellular activity. Low-level shear may favor a few supercells across eastern NY/PA/NJ/DelMarVa, and therefore a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out assuming storm mode remains discrete as they move east into the better shear environment.

Western to northern MT

A potent shortwave trough is forecast to move out of the Great Basin and across ID and MT Wednesday, with substantial cooling aloft. Low pressure is forecast to develop into west-central MT, with a prominent cold front moving across the entire state into Thursday morning.

Strong surface heating ahead of the front combined with cooling aloft will result in steep lapse rates through a deep layer, aiding destabilization despite limited moisture. Storms that develop near the front during the afternoon are thus likely to produce strong to locally severe gusts. Marginally severe hail may also occur. Farther east, increasing southeast low-level winds will bring a plume of instability into eastern MT as well, which may support cells capable of hail through the evening.

NE…SD…MN…IA

Predictability is low, but isolated strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out during the late afternoon and evening, as winds increase out of the south ahead of the northern Rockies wave. Areas of moderate instability will remain over the region with southeasterly surface winds and mid to upper 60s F dewpoints. Peak heating will lead to an uncapped air mass across central SD and NE, with lift increasing into the evening as a low-level jet develops. Models are in disagreement with the most likely area for development, but severe probabilities may be added later from NE into MN.

..Jewell.. 08/31/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Thursday, September 3

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 310846 SPC AC 310846

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper ridge will persist across the TN Valley this week before retrograding to the Plains states and further amplifying into early next week. As this occurs, upper troughing will also amplify along the East Coast and Interior West. The best chances for severe storms will be closer to the East Coast Days 4-5 (Thursday-Friday) as a series of mid-level impulses will crest the Ridge and traverse the Mid Atlantic, where instability will be present.

Days 4-6 (Thursday-Saturday) - Mid-Atlantic Region

The amplification of the broader upper trough along the East Coast will result in a farther southward shift of accompanying mid-level impulses, which will promote deep-layer ascent over the Mid-Atlantic region. The severe threat may also be modulated farther south given established baroclinic zones from prior rounds of storms. On Thursday, storms should develop along a differential heating zone somewhere around Delmarva or points immediately west. Surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 F beneath seasonably cool temperatures aloft will yield 1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Given over 30 kts of effective bulk shear expected, multicells, supercells, and short bowing segments will likely develop, accompanied by a severe wind/hail threat.

For Day 5 (Friday), the upper trough will amplify further, allowing for a surface differential heating zone to become established across the southern Mid-Atlantic, where adequate moisture and instability will likely coincide with modest vertical wind shear, supporting another day of severe potential. Damaging gusts will likely be the main threat.

Some lingering severe potential may exist across the Carolinas on Day 6/Saturday before the upper trough departs the region, as indicated by some ML/AI guidance. However, predictability on the timing of details (i.e. baroclinic boundaries and overlapping corridors of vertical wind shear) is too low for the introduction of probabilities this outlook.

Day 4 (Thursday) - Upper Midwest

Some guidance depicts the potential for severe thunderstorms along an effective warm front across portions of the Upper Midwest, where rich low-level moisture will reside ahead of a surface trough. Given stronger mid-level flow and cooler temperatures overspreading the warm front, enough shear and instability may manifest to support a severe threat. While calibrated guidance has been ramping up severe probabilities over this area, synoptic features (such as a pronounced mid-level impulse) do not appear strongly evident in deterministic guidance, precluding the addition of severe probabilities to this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 08/31/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Friday, September 4

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 310846 SPC AC 310846

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper ridge will persist across the TN Valley this week before retrograding to the Plains states and further amplifying into early next week. As this occurs, upper troughing will also amplify along the East Coast and Interior West. The best chances for severe storms will be closer to the East Coast Days 4-5 (Thursday-Friday) as a series of mid-level impulses will crest the Ridge and traverse the Mid Atlantic, where instability will be present.

Days 4-6 (Thursday-Saturday) - Mid-Atlantic Region

The amplification of the broader upper trough along the East Coast will result in a farther southward shift of accompanying mid-level impulses, which will promote deep-layer ascent over the Mid-Atlantic region. The severe threat may also be modulated farther south given established baroclinic zones from prior rounds of storms. On Thursday, storms should develop along a differential heating zone somewhere around Delmarva or points immediately west. Surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 F beneath seasonably cool temperatures aloft will yield 1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Given over 30 kts of effective bulk shear expected, multicells, supercells, and short bowing segments will likely develop, accompanied by a severe wind/hail threat.

For Day 5 (Friday), the upper trough will amplify further, allowing for a surface differential heating zone to become established across the southern Mid-Atlantic, where adequate moisture and instability will likely coincide with modest vertical wind shear, supporting another day of severe potential. Damaging gusts will likely be the main threat.

Some lingering severe potential may exist across the Carolinas on Day 6/Saturday before the upper trough departs the region, as indicated by some ML/AI guidance. However, predictability on the timing of details (i.e. baroclinic boundaries and overlapping corridors of vertical wind shear) is too low for the introduction of probabilities this outlook.

Day 4 (Thursday) - Upper Midwest

Some guidance depicts the potential for severe thunderstorms along an effective warm front across portions of the Upper Midwest, where rich low-level moisture will reside ahead of a surface trough. Given stronger mid-level flow and cooler temperatures overspreading the warm front, enough shear and instability may manifest to support a severe threat. While calibrated guidance has been ramping up severe probabilities over this area, synoptic features (such as a pronounced mid-level impulse) do not appear strongly evident in deterministic guidance, precluding the addition of severe probabilities to this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 08/31/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, September 5

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 310846 SPC AC 310846

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper ridge will persist across the TN Valley this week before retrograding to the Plains states and further amplifying into early next week. As this occurs, upper troughing will also amplify along the East Coast and Interior West. The best chances for severe storms will be closer to the East Coast Days 4-5 (Thursday-Friday) as a series of mid-level impulses will crest the Ridge and traverse the Mid Atlantic, where instability will be present.

Days 4-6 (Thursday-Saturday) - Mid-Atlantic Region

The amplification of the broader upper trough along the East Coast will result in a farther southward shift of accompanying mid-level impulses, which will promote deep-layer ascent over the Mid-Atlantic region. The severe threat may also be modulated farther south given established baroclinic zones from prior rounds of storms. On Thursday, storms should develop along a differential heating zone somewhere around Delmarva or points immediately west. Surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 F beneath seasonably cool temperatures aloft will yield 1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Given over 30 kts of effective bulk shear expected, multicells, supercells, and short bowing segments will likely develop, accompanied by a severe wind/hail threat.

For Day 5 (Friday), the upper trough will amplify further, allowing for a surface differential heating zone to become established across the southern Mid-Atlantic, where adequate moisture and instability will likely coincide with modest vertical wind shear, supporting another day of severe potential. Damaging gusts will likely be the main threat.

Some lingering severe potential may exist across the Carolinas on Day 6/Saturday before the upper trough departs the region, as indicated by some ML/AI guidance. However, predictability on the timing of details (i.e. baroclinic boundaries and overlapping corridors of vertical wind shear) is too low for the introduction of probabilities this outlook.

Day 4 (Thursday) - Upper Midwest

Some guidance depicts the potential for severe thunderstorms along an effective warm front across portions of the Upper Midwest, where rich low-level moisture will reside ahead of a surface trough. Given stronger mid-level flow and cooler temperatures overspreading the warm front, enough shear and instability may manifest to support a severe threat. While calibrated guidance has been ramping up severe probabilities over this area, synoptic features (such as a pronounced mid-level impulse) do not appear strongly evident in deterministic guidance, precluding the addition of severe probabilities to this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 08/31/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, September 6

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 310846 SPC AC 310846

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper ridge will persist across the TN Valley this week before retrograding to the Plains states and further amplifying into early next week. As this occurs, upper troughing will also amplify along the East Coast and Interior West. The best chances for severe storms will be closer to the East Coast Days 4-5 (Thursday-Friday) as a series of mid-level impulses will crest the Ridge and traverse the Mid Atlantic, where instability will be present.

Days 4-6 (Thursday-Saturday) - Mid-Atlantic Region

The amplification of the broader upper trough along the East Coast will result in a farther southward shift of accompanying mid-level impulses, which will promote deep-layer ascent over the Mid-Atlantic region. The severe threat may also be modulated farther south given established baroclinic zones from prior rounds of storms. On Thursday, storms should develop along a differential heating zone somewhere around Delmarva or points immediately west. Surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 F beneath seasonably cool temperatures aloft will yield 1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Given over 30 kts of effective bulk shear expected, multicells, supercells, and short bowing segments will likely develop, accompanied by a severe wind/hail threat.

For Day 5 (Friday), the upper trough will amplify further, allowing for a surface differential heating zone to become established across the southern Mid-Atlantic, where adequate moisture and instability will likely coincide with modest vertical wind shear, supporting another day of severe potential. Damaging gusts will likely be the main threat.

Some lingering severe potential may exist across the Carolinas on Day 6/Saturday before the upper trough departs the region, as indicated by some ML/AI guidance. However, predictability on the timing of details (i.e. baroclinic boundaries and overlapping corridors of vertical wind shear) is too low for the introduction of probabilities this outlook.

Day 4 (Thursday) - Upper Midwest

Some guidance depicts the potential for severe thunderstorms along an effective warm front across portions of the Upper Midwest, where rich low-level moisture will reside ahead of a surface trough. Given stronger mid-level flow and cooler temperatures overspreading the warm front, enough shear and instability may manifest to support a severe threat. While calibrated guidance has been ramping up severe probabilities over this area, synoptic features (such as a pronounced mid-level impulse) do not appear strongly evident in deterministic guidance, precluding the addition of severe probabilities to this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 08/31/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, September 7

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 310846 SPC AC 310846

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper ridge will persist across the TN Valley this week before retrograding to the Plains states and further amplifying into early next week. As this occurs, upper troughing will also amplify along the East Coast and Interior West. The best chances for severe storms will be closer to the East Coast Days 4-5 (Thursday-Friday) as a series of mid-level impulses will crest the Ridge and traverse the Mid Atlantic, where instability will be present.

Days 4-6 (Thursday-Saturday) - Mid-Atlantic Region

The amplification of the broader upper trough along the East Coast will result in a farther southward shift of accompanying mid-level impulses, which will promote deep-layer ascent over the Mid-Atlantic region. The severe threat may also be modulated farther south given established baroclinic zones from prior rounds of storms. On Thursday, storms should develop along a differential heating zone somewhere around Delmarva or points immediately west. Surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 F beneath seasonably cool temperatures aloft will yield 1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Given over 30 kts of effective bulk shear expected, multicells, supercells, and short bowing segments will likely develop, accompanied by a severe wind/hail threat.

For Day 5 (Friday), the upper trough will amplify further, allowing for a surface differential heating zone to become established across the southern Mid-Atlantic, where adequate moisture and instability will likely coincide with modest vertical wind shear, supporting another day of severe potential. Damaging gusts will likely be the main threat.

Some lingering severe potential may exist across the Carolinas on Day 6/Saturday before the upper trough departs the region, as indicated by some ML/AI guidance. However, predictability on the timing of details (i.e. baroclinic boundaries and overlapping corridors of vertical wind shear) is too low for the introduction of probabilities this outlook.

Day 4 (Thursday) - Upper Midwest

Some guidance depicts the potential for severe thunderstorms along an effective warm front across portions of the Upper Midwest, where rich low-level moisture will reside ahead of a surface trough. Given stronger mid-level flow and cooler temperatures overspreading the warm front, enough shear and instability may manifest to support a severe threat. While calibrated guidance has been ramping up severe probabilities over this area, synoptic features (such as a pronounced mid-level impulse) do not appear strongly evident in deterministic guidance, precluding the addition of severe probabilities to this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 08/31/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

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National Risk Overview

Monday, August 31

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 5%

Tuesday, September 1

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Wednesday, September 2

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Thursday, September 3

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Friday, September 4

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Saturday, September 5

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Sunday, September 6

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Monday, September 7

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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