Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, March 28
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 281551
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026
Valid 281630Z - 291200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight.
Synopsis
An upper trough over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states will move east into the western Atlantic and become increasingly displaced from the Southeast U.S. A southward-moving cold front, evident in visible satellite imagery over the Gulf Stream east of north FL, will move across the FL Peninsula before becoming less defined and decelerating as it encounters a sub-tropical airmass over south FL and the Bahamian archipelago. Strong heating and modest buoyancy will support isolated to widely scattered convection mainly along this boundary during the afternoon and evening, fostered by both convergence along the front and sea breeze boundary. Limited buoyancy and weak shear will likely preclude severe thunderstorms.
..Smith/Bunting.. 03/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Sunday, March 29
Outlook Summary
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of southern Arizona and the southern Florida Peninsula Sunday afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 281751
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of southern Arizona and the southern Florida Peninsula Sunday afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
Synopsis
A zonal flow regime will exist across the CONUS on Sunday, with the main upper jet situated across the northern States. Areas of cooler air aloft will exist from Baja CA and extending into parts of the Southwest, with warmer air aloft across the Gulf Coast.
At the surface, a prominent area of high pressure will be centered over the Mid Atlantic, with ridge extending across the southeastern states and into the northern Gulf. A surface trough will develop across the High Plains, with early cycle moisture return across the Plains.
Thunderstorm chances will be limited to parts of southern AZ during the late afternoon as heating, steep lapse rates aloft and increasing low-level moisture support marginal instability in a weak shear environment. Locally gusty winds are likely with storms over southern AZ.
Elsewhere, a deep easterly low-level flow regime will exist across FL, and although midlevel lapse rates will be poor, heating along with deep moisture through 700 mb may support isolated thunderstorms.
..Jewell.. 03/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Monday, March 30
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the upper Mississippi River Valley and Lake Michigan vicinity late Monday night into early Tuesday morning.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 280719
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND LAKE MICHIGAN VICINITY
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the upper Mississippi River Valley and Lake Michigan vicinity late Monday night into early Tuesday morning.
Synopsis
Zonal flow over the central to northern Rockies is forecast to increase over the next 48-72 hours as an upper ridge shifts towards the Southeast and a low-amplitude upper wave begins to translate along the U.S./Canadian border. Lee cyclone development is anticipated across the northern High Plains by early Monday with steady intensification expected as it migrates east ahead of the upper wave. The deepening surface low will promote northward moisture return through the MS Valley and into the upper Great Lakes region while eastward advection of 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates takes place aloft. Thunderstorm development appears probable overnight across the upper MS Valley and upper Great Lakes region as isentropic ascent increases along the tightening warm frontal zone of the cyclone.
Elsewhere, more isolated thunderstorms are possible along the western FL Gulf coast where sea-breeze ascent within a moist and weakly capped environment should support a few thunderstorms. Similarly, isolated convection is possible across parts of the lower MS Valley within a plume of rich low-level moisture. Another day of isolated, high-based thunderstorms is expected across portions of the Southwest. Weak deep-layer wind shear across these regions will limit severe thunderstorm potential.
.Upper MS Valley/Lake Michigan
The combination of low-level moistening and steepening lapse rates aloft will support steady destabilization through Monday and into Monday night. Model consensus is that 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE should be in place by Monday evening across the southern WI region. Initially dry and capped low-level profiles will likely preclude thunderstorm development during the day, though increasing ascent within the 925-850 mb warm frontal zone should increase thunderstorm chances during the 00-06 UTC period. While elevated convection appears likely, hodograph elongation through the CAPE-bearing layer should support storm organization, including the potential for a supercell or two. Although storm motions along the frontal zone hint that some degree of clustering is probable, at least a localized hail threat should materialize given the favorable buoyancy/shear environment.
..Moore.. 03/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Tuesday, March 31
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, March 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, April 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, April 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, April 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, April 4 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280856 SPC AC 280856
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
A return to a more seasonal upper-level regime will promote strong/severe thunderstorm chances beginning D4/Tuesday and potentially persisting into the upcoming weekend. A well-anticipated upper-level regime shift remains likely late this weekend and into early next week as an upper ridge over the south-central CONUS de-amplifies and shifts east. The return to mean troughing over the West will promote persistent lee troughing and southerly return flow into the Plains and lower MS Valley. Long-range guidance depicts several upper disturbances propagating across the northern and central U.S. through late week, which may each support some risk of strong/severe thunderstorms.
D4/Tuesday
A low-amplitude upper wave is forecast to traverse the U.S./Canadian border and into the Great Lakes region Monday into Tuesday. Northeastward moisture return ahead of an intensifying surface cyclone and trailing cold front will likely establish a fairly broad warm sector from the Ozarks into the Midwest/Great Lakes region. Thunderstorm development along the cold front is expected by late afternoon with most deterministic and ensemble guidance showing strong QPF signals. Any severe weather threat will likely be focused from central IL northeastward into northern IN/southern MI where deep-layer wind shear will be stronger in proximity to the upper jet and shear vectors should be more orthogonal to the front. While some solutions depict favorable MLCAPE and shear for organized convection (e.g. the 00z GFS), ensemble consensus shows muted probabilities for a highly favorable convective environment (e.g. recent GEFS depicts less than 20% probability for SCP values above 3). This suggests that even though some severe threat will likely materialize, considerable uncertainty remains regarding the quality of the convective environment.
D5/Wednesday and D6/Thursday
Tuesday's cold front is expected to stall roughly along or south of the OH River by the afternoon of D5/Wednesday. This will maintain a moist warm sector across the southern Plains eastward to the TN Valley. Strong to severe thunderstorm potential may emerge on D5/Wednesday and D6/Thursday as an upper disturbance propagates across the southern Plains and into the OH Valley and supports ascent along and north of the stalled frontal zone. Given the relatively focused nature of the wave and attendant mid-level jet, widespread severe convection seems improbable, though a favorable buoyancy/shear environment is possible in the vicinity of the stalled front each afternoon.
..Moore.. 03/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, April 1
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, March 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, April 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, April 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, April 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, April 4 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280856 SPC AC 280856
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
A return to a more seasonal upper-level regime will promote strong/severe thunderstorm chances beginning D4/Tuesday and potentially persisting into the upcoming weekend. A well-anticipated upper-level regime shift remains likely late this weekend and into early next week as an upper ridge over the south-central CONUS de-amplifies and shifts east. The return to mean troughing over the West will promote persistent lee troughing and southerly return flow into the Plains and lower MS Valley. Long-range guidance depicts several upper disturbances propagating across the northern and central U.S. through late week, which may each support some risk of strong/severe thunderstorms.
D4/Tuesday
A low-amplitude upper wave is forecast to traverse the U.S./Canadian border and into the Great Lakes region Monday into Tuesday. Northeastward moisture return ahead of an intensifying surface cyclone and trailing cold front will likely establish a fairly broad warm sector from the Ozarks into the Midwest/Great Lakes region. Thunderstorm development along the cold front is expected by late afternoon with most deterministic and ensemble guidance showing strong QPF signals. Any severe weather threat will likely be focused from central IL northeastward into northern IN/southern MI where deep-layer wind shear will be stronger in proximity to the upper jet and shear vectors should be more orthogonal to the front. While some solutions depict favorable MLCAPE and shear for organized convection (e.g. the 00z GFS), ensemble consensus shows muted probabilities for a highly favorable convective environment (e.g. recent GEFS depicts less than 20% probability for SCP values above 3). This suggests that even though some severe threat will likely materialize, considerable uncertainty remains regarding the quality of the convective environment.
D5/Wednesday and D6/Thursday
Tuesday's cold front is expected to stall roughly along or south of the OH River by the afternoon of D5/Wednesday. This will maintain a moist warm sector across the southern Plains eastward to the TN Valley. Strong to severe thunderstorm potential may emerge on D5/Wednesday and D6/Thursday as an upper disturbance propagates across the southern Plains and into the OH Valley and supports ascent along and north of the stalled frontal zone. Given the relatively focused nature of the wave and attendant mid-level jet, widespread severe convection seems improbable, though a favorable buoyancy/shear environment is possible in the vicinity of the stalled front each afternoon.
..Moore.. 03/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, April 2
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, March 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, April 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, April 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, April 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, April 4 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280856 SPC AC 280856
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
A return to a more seasonal upper-level regime will promote strong/severe thunderstorm chances beginning D4/Tuesday and potentially persisting into the upcoming weekend. A well-anticipated upper-level regime shift remains likely late this weekend and into early next week as an upper ridge over the south-central CONUS de-amplifies and shifts east. The return to mean troughing over the West will promote persistent lee troughing and southerly return flow into the Plains and lower MS Valley. Long-range guidance depicts several upper disturbances propagating across the northern and central U.S. through late week, which may each support some risk of strong/severe thunderstorms.
D4/Tuesday
A low-amplitude upper wave is forecast to traverse the U.S./Canadian border and into the Great Lakes region Monday into Tuesday. Northeastward moisture return ahead of an intensifying surface cyclone and trailing cold front will likely establish a fairly broad warm sector from the Ozarks into the Midwest/Great Lakes region. Thunderstorm development along the cold front is expected by late afternoon with most deterministic and ensemble guidance showing strong QPF signals. Any severe weather threat will likely be focused from central IL northeastward into northern IN/southern MI where deep-layer wind shear will be stronger in proximity to the upper jet and shear vectors should be more orthogonal to the front. While some solutions depict favorable MLCAPE and shear for organized convection (e.g. the 00z GFS), ensemble consensus shows muted probabilities for a highly favorable convective environment (e.g. recent GEFS depicts less than 20% probability for SCP values above 3). This suggests that even though some severe threat will likely materialize, considerable uncertainty remains regarding the quality of the convective environment.
D5/Wednesday and D6/Thursday
Tuesday's cold front is expected to stall roughly along or south of the OH River by the afternoon of D5/Wednesday. This will maintain a moist warm sector across the southern Plains eastward to the TN Valley. Strong to severe thunderstorm potential may emerge on D5/Wednesday and D6/Thursday as an upper disturbance propagates across the southern Plains and into the OH Valley and supports ascent along and north of the stalled frontal zone. Given the relatively focused nature of the wave and attendant mid-level jet, widespread severe convection seems improbable, though a favorable buoyancy/shear environment is possible in the vicinity of the stalled front each afternoon.
..Moore.. 03/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, April 3
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, March 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, April 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, April 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, April 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, April 4 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280856 SPC AC 280856
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
A return to a more seasonal upper-level regime will promote strong/severe thunderstorm chances beginning D4/Tuesday and potentially persisting into the upcoming weekend. A well-anticipated upper-level regime shift remains likely late this weekend and into early next week as an upper ridge over the south-central CONUS de-amplifies and shifts east. The return to mean troughing over the West will promote persistent lee troughing and southerly return flow into the Plains and lower MS Valley. Long-range guidance depicts several upper disturbances propagating across the northern and central U.S. through late week, which may each support some risk of strong/severe thunderstorms.
D4/Tuesday
A low-amplitude upper wave is forecast to traverse the U.S./Canadian border and into the Great Lakes region Monday into Tuesday. Northeastward moisture return ahead of an intensifying surface cyclone and trailing cold front will likely establish a fairly broad warm sector from the Ozarks into the Midwest/Great Lakes region. Thunderstorm development along the cold front is expected by late afternoon with most deterministic and ensemble guidance showing strong QPF signals. Any severe weather threat will likely be focused from central IL northeastward into northern IN/southern MI where deep-layer wind shear will be stronger in proximity to the upper jet and shear vectors should be more orthogonal to the front. While some solutions depict favorable MLCAPE and shear for organized convection (e.g. the 00z GFS), ensemble consensus shows muted probabilities for a highly favorable convective environment (e.g. recent GEFS depicts less than 20% probability for SCP values above 3). This suggests that even though some severe threat will likely materialize, considerable uncertainty remains regarding the quality of the convective environment.
D5/Wednesday and D6/Thursday
Tuesday's cold front is expected to stall roughly along or south of the OH River by the afternoon of D5/Wednesday. This will maintain a moist warm sector across the southern Plains eastward to the TN Valley. Strong to severe thunderstorm potential may emerge on D5/Wednesday and D6/Thursday as an upper disturbance propagates across the southern Plains and into the OH Valley and supports ascent along and north of the stalled frontal zone. Given the relatively focused nature of the wave and attendant mid-level jet, widespread severe convection seems improbable, though a favorable buoyancy/shear environment is possible in the vicinity of the stalled front each afternoon.
..Moore.. 03/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, April 4
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, March 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, April 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, April 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, April 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, April 4 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280856 SPC AC 280856
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
A return to a more seasonal upper-level regime will promote strong/severe thunderstorm chances beginning D4/Tuesday and potentially persisting into the upcoming weekend. A well-anticipated upper-level regime shift remains likely late this weekend and into early next week as an upper ridge over the south-central CONUS de-amplifies and shifts east. The return to mean troughing over the West will promote persistent lee troughing and southerly return flow into the Plains and lower MS Valley. Long-range guidance depicts several upper disturbances propagating across the northern and central U.S. through late week, which may each support some risk of strong/severe thunderstorms.
D4/Tuesday
A low-amplitude upper wave is forecast to traverse the U.S./Canadian border and into the Great Lakes region Monday into Tuesday. Northeastward moisture return ahead of an intensifying surface cyclone and trailing cold front will likely establish a fairly broad warm sector from the Ozarks into the Midwest/Great Lakes region. Thunderstorm development along the cold front is expected by late afternoon with most deterministic and ensemble guidance showing strong QPF signals. Any severe weather threat will likely be focused from central IL northeastward into northern IN/southern MI where deep-layer wind shear will be stronger in proximity to the upper jet and shear vectors should be more orthogonal to the front. While some solutions depict favorable MLCAPE and shear for organized convection (e.g. the 00z GFS), ensemble consensus shows muted probabilities for a highly favorable convective environment (e.g. recent GEFS depicts less than 20% probability for SCP values above 3). This suggests that even though some severe threat will likely materialize, considerable uncertainty remains regarding the quality of the convective environment.
D5/Wednesday and D6/Thursday
Tuesday's cold front is expected to stall roughly along or south of the OH River by the afternoon of D5/Wednesday. This will maintain a moist warm sector across the southern Plains eastward to the TN Valley. Strong to severe thunderstorm potential may emerge on D5/Wednesday and D6/Thursday as an upper disturbance propagates across the southern Plains and into the OH Valley and supports ascent along and north of the stalled frontal zone. Given the relatively focused nature of the wave and attendant mid-level jet, widespread severe convection seems improbable, though a favorable buoyancy/shear environment is possible in the vicinity of the stalled front each afternoon.
..Moore.. 03/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, March 28
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Sunday, March 29
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Monday, March 30
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Tuesday, March 31
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, April 1
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, April 2
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, April 3
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, April 4
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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