Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, August 22
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible for another couple hours across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley before thunderstorm intensity wanes later this evening and overnight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 230100
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026
Valid 230100Z - 231200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS…NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI…AND EXTREME NORTHWEST ALABAMA
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible for another couple hours across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley before thunderstorm intensity wanes later this evening and overnight.
01Z Update
Thunderstorm intensity continues to wane across much of the United States this evening. The most intense thunderstorms continue to be a cluster of southeast moving thunderstorms across the lower Mississippi Valley. Here, strong instability will maintain a hail and wind threat for a couple more hours before weakening with the increasing boundary layer stability.
Elsewhere, a few sporadic damaging wind gusts will be possible with a weakening line of storms across central Pennsylvania south into southern Virginia over the next couple of hours as well as across portions of the southern High Plains where a linear MCS continues to push south and west.
Across portions of the Nebraska Panhandle northwest into eastern Wyoming and western South Dakota, strong vertical shear and 2000 J/kg MUCAPE will maintain support for a few large hail stones and a couple of marginally severe wind gusts.
A cluster of storms across south-central Colorado will be capable of marginally severe hail and wind gusts for another one or two hours before weakening with the loss of diurnal heating.
Across the west, strong thunderstorm wind gusts will be possible from northern Utah northward toward far southwest Montana. These high-based storms will be capable of sporadic downbursts capable of strong erratic winds.
Lastly, a low probability of marginally severe hail and wind gusts will remain possible across northern Washington this evening as a strong mid-level just streak continues to lift northeast into Canada.
..Marsh.. 08/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Sunday, August 23
Outlook Summary
Strong thunderstorm activity posing at least some risk for severe hail and wind appears possible across parts of the northern Rockies and Great Plains, and across parts of the eastern Great Lakes to the Northeast, Sunday through Sunday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 221730
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
### SUMMARY
Strong thunderstorm activity posing at least some risk for severe hail and wind appears possible across parts of the northern Rockies and Great Plains, and across parts of the eastern Great Lakes to the Northeast, Sunday through Sunday night.
Synopsis
Upper ridging will prevail across the western CONUS as an upper trough slowly traverses the Northeast tomorrow (Sunday). A mid-level impulse will crest the upper ridge tomorrow afternoon across the northern Rockies while a small impulse embedded in the aforementioned upper trough overspreads the northern Appalachians. From the northern Rockies to northern High Plains, as well as parts of the Northeast, stronger flow above the boundary layer will promote adequate vertical wind shear, in tandem with buoyancy, to promote strong to severe thunderstorms. Elsewhere from the central Rockies to the Gulf/Carolina coastlines, strong surface heating amid pockets of low-level moisture will support scattered thunderstorm development, with an isolated severe storm possible.
Northern Rockies
By mid to late afternoon, a well-mixed boundary layer should develop beneath a plume of cooler temperatures aloft (e.g. 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates) with the passage of the aforementioned mid-level impulse. A belt of stronger mid- to -upper level westerly flow will also accompany this impulse, resulting in elongated hodographs and 30-40 kts of effective bulk (speed) shear coinciding with the steep low- and mid-level lapse rates. Multicells and transient supercells should develop, accompanied by a risk of severe gusts and perhaps an instance or two of hail. A gust over 75 mph is possible.
Northern High Plains into South Dakota
Convective evolution and morphology remains unclear in this region. Steep lapse rates will emanate from the northern Rockies and overspread a moistening warm sector (e.g. mid 60s F dewpoints), yielding 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE. Modestly curved and elongated hodographs suggest multicells and supercells as the main storm mode, at least initially. Severe gusts/hail would accompany these storms if they can become sustained. There is also some indication by the latest CAMS that storms may merge into a cold-pool-driven MCS, though guidance consensus is weak on this scenario. Nonetheless, any MCS development that does occur would support severe gusts, including a 75+ mph gust.
Portions of the eastern Great Basin to the central Rockies
A cluster of multicell storms should develop around the eastern Great Basin into the central Rockies by afternoon peak heating. Stronger flow aloft will glance the region to the north, atop a strongly mixed boundary layer. Forecast soundings show classic inverted-V profiles extending to 500 mb, with surface-500 mb lapse rates reaching at least 9 C/km. As such, severe gusts are possible with the stronger multicells that form.
Portions of the Northern Appalachians into New England
By afternoon, surface temperatures should warm well into the 70s F as earlier showers and thunderstorms make way for at least partly clearing skies. While not overly steep, mid-level lapse rates exceeding 6.5 C/km will result in marginal buoyancy, amid stronger flow aloft (yielding elongated hodographs). A couple instances of damaging gusts/hail will be possible with the stronger multicells that manage to sustain themselves.
Gulf to Carolina Coastlines
A heated and moist boundary layer should develop by afternoon given the presence of mid 70s F surface dewpoints and temperatures rising well into the 80s F. Such rich low-level moisture will support 2000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE from LA to extreme eastern NC despite mid-level lapse rates only reaching 6-6.5 C/km. Across the Gulf Coast, pulse-cellular storms are expected given weak flow aloft, with damaging gusts originated from wet downbursts the main threat. Along the Carolina Coastline, southwesterly mid-level flow will be a bit stronger given the upper trough glancing by to the north. Multicells capable of isolated severe gusts are possible. Locally higher severe probabilities may be needed in future Day 1 outlooks if greater storm coverage becomes apparent.
Portions of southern Arizona
Locally stronger southeasterly mid-level flow will pivot around the upper ridge and overspread a deep and dry boundary layer by late afternoon/early evening. Meanwhile, surface temperatures around 100 F, amid 60 F surface dewpoints and overspread by modestly cooler temperatures aloft, will yield 9+ C/km tropospheric lapse rates and over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Given the modest flow aloft and aforementioned buoyancy, a few organized multicells may occur, accompanied by an isolated severe gust threat.
..Squitieri.. 08/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Monday, August 24
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with at least isolated severe gusts/hail are possible across the northern Great Basin to the High Plains and northern Plains Monday afternoon and evening. A couple of damaging gusts may also occur with storms in Maine and along parts of the Gulf Coast.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 221927
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN TO THE HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHERN PLAINS…PARTS OF THE GULF COAST…AND MAINE
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with at least isolated severe gusts/hail are possible across the northern Great Basin to the High Plains and northern Plains Monday afternoon and evening. A couple of damaging gusts may also occur with storms in Maine and along parts of the Gulf Coast.
Synopsis
An upper ridge will remain in place across the western and central CONUS while an upper trough begins to eject into the Atlantic from New England on Monday. The embedded impulse responsible for cresting the ridge over the northern Rockies and encouraging severe storm development on Day 2 (Sunday) will overspread the northern High Plains on Monday. Weak lee troughing over the Plains will encourage modest low-level moisture advection beneath stronger westerly flow aloft, resulting in enough deep-layer ascent, amid coinciding buoyancy and vertical wind shear, to support isolated strong to severe thunderstorms.
Central High Plains to the northern Plains
Upslope flow of 60s F surface dewpoints beneath 8 C/km mid-level lapse rates along the central and northern High Plains will yield 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE as a mid-level impulse begins to overspread the region. Over 30 kts of 500 mb flow and resultant deep-layer shear will coincide with this buoyancy, supporting the development of multicells and perhaps supercells by late Monday afternoon. Should more sustained supercells develop, an instance or two of 2+ inch diameter hail or a 75+ mph gust cannot be ruled out given the aforementioned mid-level lapse rates. Slight risk probabilities may be needed in future outlooks pending higher confidence in greater storm coverage.
Parts of the northern Great Basin to central Rockies
A deep and dry boundary layer should develop by afternoon peak heating, resulting in inverted-V thermodynamic profiles from the northern Great Basin into the central Rockies. Stronger westerly mid-level flow will overspread this dry and unstable boundary layer, promoting elongated hodographs and the tendency for storms to organize into multicells. Given the organized storm mode and evaporative cooling potential with the dry boundary layer in place, a few severe gusts may occur with the stronger storms.
Maine
Deep-layer ascent ahead of the ejecting upper trough will support scattered thunderstorm development during the late morning into the afternoon hours. A belt of 60 kt 500 mb southwesterly flow will pivot around the upper trough and overspread Main during the afternoon, when buoyancy will be maximized. MLCAPE may exceed 750 J/kg with over 50 kts of effective bulk/speed shear given highly elongated hodographs. Therefore, any storms that develop may become multicellular or transient supercellular in nature, posting an isolated damaging gust/hail threat through the afternoon.
Parts of the Gulf Coast
Another hot and humid day is expected along the Gulf Coast, where strong surface heating amid mid 70s F dewpoints will yield MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg. Despite weak tropospheric flow, enough moisture-fueled buoyancy will support the potential for wet downbursts capable of damaging gusts during the afternoon.
..Squitieri.. 08/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Tuesday, August 25
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, August 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, August 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, August 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, August 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, August 29 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220742 SPC AC 220742
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
Overall, the long range pattern will feature a ridge centered over the southern High Plains which may shift slightly west through the period. Some severe weather may occur within the northwesterly flow pattern from the northern Plains to the Ohio Valley Tuesday/D4 to Thursday/D6, but confidence is not high enough for probabilities at this time. There is an emerging signal for a seasonably strong high pressure to build into the eastern CONUS and shunt most of the richer low-level moisture to the Gulf Coast states. If this occurs, a relative lull in severe weather potential would exist from the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast to the Upper Midwest into next weekend.
..Bentley.. 08/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, August 26
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, August 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, August 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, August 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, August 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, August 29 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220742 SPC AC 220742
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
Overall, the long range pattern will feature a ridge centered over the southern High Plains which may shift slightly west through the period. Some severe weather may occur within the northwesterly flow pattern from the northern Plains to the Ohio Valley Tuesday/D4 to Thursday/D6, but confidence is not high enough for probabilities at this time. There is an emerging signal for a seasonably strong high pressure to build into the eastern CONUS and shunt most of the richer low-level moisture to the Gulf Coast states. If this occurs, a relative lull in severe weather potential would exist from the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast to the Upper Midwest into next weekend.
..Bentley.. 08/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, August 27
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, August 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, August 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, August 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, August 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, August 29 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220742 SPC AC 220742
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
Overall, the long range pattern will feature a ridge centered over the southern High Plains which may shift slightly west through the period. Some severe weather may occur within the northwesterly flow pattern from the northern Plains to the Ohio Valley Tuesday/D4 to Thursday/D6, but confidence is not high enough for probabilities at this time. There is an emerging signal for a seasonably strong high pressure to build into the eastern CONUS and shunt most of the richer low-level moisture to the Gulf Coast states. If this occurs, a relative lull in severe weather potential would exist from the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast to the Upper Midwest into next weekend.
..Bentley.. 08/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, August 28
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, August 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, August 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, August 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, August 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, August 29 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220742 SPC AC 220742
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
Overall, the long range pattern will feature a ridge centered over the southern High Plains which may shift slightly west through the period. Some severe weather may occur within the northwesterly flow pattern from the northern Plains to the Ohio Valley Tuesday/D4 to Thursday/D6, but confidence is not high enough for probabilities at this time. There is an emerging signal for a seasonably strong high pressure to build into the eastern CONUS and shunt most of the richer low-level moisture to the Gulf Coast states. If this occurs, a relative lull in severe weather potential would exist from the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast to the Upper Midwest into next weekend.
..Bentley.. 08/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, August 29
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, August 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, August 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, August 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, August 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, August 29 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220742 SPC AC 220742
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
Overall, the long range pattern will feature a ridge centered over the southern High Plains which may shift slightly west through the period. Some severe weather may occur within the northwesterly flow pattern from the northern Plains to the Ohio Valley Tuesday/D4 to Thursday/D6, but confidence is not high enough for probabilities at this time. There is an emerging signal for a seasonably strong high pressure to build into the eastern CONUS and shunt most of the richer low-level moisture to the Gulf Coast states. If this occurs, a relative lull in severe weather potential would exist from the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast to the Upper Midwest into next weekend.
..Bentley.. 08/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, August 22
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Sunday, August 23
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Monday, August 24
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Tuesday, August 25
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, August 26
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, August 27
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, August 28
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, August 29
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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