Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, February 23
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 231551
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0951 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026
Valid 231630Z - 241200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.
Synopsis
A pronounced mid-level trough and associated deep surface low will continue to progress further into the Atlantic, leading to upper ridging over the Intermountain West and broad northwest flow across the central CONUS today. Surface high pressure and an accompanying continental polar airmass will overspread much of the U.S. east of the Rockies through the period, limiting thunderstorm potential.
..Squitieri.. 02/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Tuesday, February 24
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are not expected across the US on Tuesday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 231658
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not expected across the US on Tuesday.
Synopsis and Discussion
Moderate northwesterly flow aloft is forecast to extend across the majority of the CONUS early Tuesday. Several shortwave troughs are expected to move within the this northwesterly flow, including one forecast to move across the Upper Midwest, Upper Great Lakes, and adjacent northwestern Ontario.
A deepening lee trough, and likely lee low development, will help tighten the surface pressure gradient across the Plains. Resulting southerly flow across the Southern Plains will encourage some modest low-level moisture return is anticipated late Tuesday through Wednesday morning across the TX Gulf Coast. However, the previously mentioned shortwave is expected to remain displaced well north of this low-level moisture and any associated buoyancy, precluding thunderstorm developing across the CONUS.
A shortwave trough will also move into the Pacific Northwest early Wednesday morning. Cool and moist profiles are expected to be in place Tuesday morning, with some mid-level drying anticipated across the region throughout the day ahead of this wave. Some additional cooling/moistening is possible along the WA coast early morning as the wave moves through. However, stable conditions will prevail throughout the period, with no lightning anticipated.
..Mosier.. 02/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Wednesday, February 25
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms will be possible late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning across portions of the Ozarks east into the Tennessee Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 230752
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms will be possible late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning across portions of the Ozarks east into the Tennessee Valley.
Discussion
A fast moving, positively tilted shortwave trough embedded in the broad northwest flow across the US will move from the Interior Pacific Northwest to Iowa/Missouri during the forecast period. At the surface, southerly winds to the east of a broad lee trough will begin drawing warm air and Gulf moisture northward through the day on Wednesday, ultimately aiding the development of a northwest-to-southeast oriented warm front stretching from Nebraska to Alabama/Georgia.
In response to the approaching shortwave trough, southwesterly low-level winds will strengthen across Texas into the Ohio Valley overnight Wednesday into Thursday. Precipitation will likely develop in response to this increasing moist isentropic ascent. Forecast soundings from the Ozarks into the Tennessee Valley indicate sufficient moistening just above the boundary layer to support up to 500 J/kg of elevated instability and the potential for a few thunderstorms. As of now, the weak instability should limit any severe threat with these elevated storms.
..Marsh.. 02/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Thursday, February 26
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, February 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, February 27 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, February 28 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, March 1 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, March 2 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230837 SPC AC 230837
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
The upper-air pattern across the US will remain characterized as broad, fast, northwest flow for most of the forecast period. Embedded within this flow, a series of shortwave troughs will move across the US. The first, and potentially most impactful of these troughs will move across the eastern US on Thursday and Friday (Days 4 and 5).
A surface low will develop across portions of the Tennessee Valley early in the day Thursday in response to increasing large-scale ascent associated with the aforementioned shortwave trough. This low will quickly move east then northeast, pushing a cold front through much of the Southeast US. A couple days of moisture return will result in surface dewpoints in the 50Fs to perhaps low 60Fs ahead of this cold front. Despite poor lapse rates and meager buoyancy profiles, strong convergence along the front should yield a narrow band of forced ascent/convection. A strong low-level jet and curved low-level hodographs indicated in forecast soundings may support a few isolated damaging wind gusts or perhaps a brief tornado or two with this convection, even absent widespread lightning. Although confidence is increasing that a band of strongly forced convection will occur along the cold front, confidence remains too low in where damaging wind gusts/brief tornado may occur to introduce unconditional 15% severe probabilities.
In the wake of this cold front, the severe potential looks to be rather limited as surface moisture is suppressed south into the northern Gulf until next weekend at the earliest, when southerly return flow should develop across Texas and Oklahoma.
..Marsh.. 02/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, February 27
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, February 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, February 27 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, February 28 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, March 1 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, March 2 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230837 SPC AC 230837
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
The upper-air pattern across the US will remain characterized as broad, fast, northwest flow for most of the forecast period. Embedded within this flow, a series of shortwave troughs will move across the US. The first, and potentially most impactful of these troughs will move across the eastern US on Thursday and Friday (Days 4 and 5).
A surface low will develop across portions of the Tennessee Valley early in the day Thursday in response to increasing large-scale ascent associated with the aforementioned shortwave trough. This low will quickly move east then northeast, pushing a cold front through much of the Southeast US. A couple days of moisture return will result in surface dewpoints in the 50Fs to perhaps low 60Fs ahead of this cold front. Despite poor lapse rates and meager buoyancy profiles, strong convergence along the front should yield a narrow band of forced ascent/convection. A strong low-level jet and curved low-level hodographs indicated in forecast soundings may support a few isolated damaging wind gusts or perhaps a brief tornado or two with this convection, even absent widespread lightning. Although confidence is increasing that a band of strongly forced convection will occur along the cold front, confidence remains too low in where damaging wind gusts/brief tornado may occur to introduce unconditional 15% severe probabilities.
In the wake of this cold front, the severe potential looks to be rather limited as surface moisture is suppressed south into the northern Gulf until next weekend at the earliest, when southerly return flow should develop across Texas and Oklahoma.
..Marsh.. 02/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, February 28
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, February 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, February 27 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, February 28 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, March 1 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, March 2 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230837 SPC AC 230837
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
The upper-air pattern across the US will remain characterized as broad, fast, northwest flow for most of the forecast period. Embedded within this flow, a series of shortwave troughs will move across the US. The first, and potentially most impactful of these troughs will move across the eastern US on Thursday and Friday (Days 4 and 5).
A surface low will develop across portions of the Tennessee Valley early in the day Thursday in response to increasing large-scale ascent associated with the aforementioned shortwave trough. This low will quickly move east then northeast, pushing a cold front through much of the Southeast US. A couple days of moisture return will result in surface dewpoints in the 50Fs to perhaps low 60Fs ahead of this cold front. Despite poor lapse rates and meager buoyancy profiles, strong convergence along the front should yield a narrow band of forced ascent/convection. A strong low-level jet and curved low-level hodographs indicated in forecast soundings may support a few isolated damaging wind gusts or perhaps a brief tornado or two with this convection, even absent widespread lightning. Although confidence is increasing that a band of strongly forced convection will occur along the cold front, confidence remains too low in where damaging wind gusts/brief tornado may occur to introduce unconditional 15% severe probabilities.
In the wake of this cold front, the severe potential looks to be rather limited as surface moisture is suppressed south into the northern Gulf until next weekend at the earliest, when southerly return flow should develop across Texas and Oklahoma.
..Marsh.. 02/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, March 1
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, February 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, February 27 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, February 28 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, March 1 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, March 2 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230837 SPC AC 230837
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
The upper-air pattern across the US will remain characterized as broad, fast, northwest flow for most of the forecast period. Embedded within this flow, a series of shortwave troughs will move across the US. The first, and potentially most impactful of these troughs will move across the eastern US on Thursday and Friday (Days 4 and 5).
A surface low will develop across portions of the Tennessee Valley early in the day Thursday in response to increasing large-scale ascent associated with the aforementioned shortwave trough. This low will quickly move east then northeast, pushing a cold front through much of the Southeast US. A couple days of moisture return will result in surface dewpoints in the 50Fs to perhaps low 60Fs ahead of this cold front. Despite poor lapse rates and meager buoyancy profiles, strong convergence along the front should yield a narrow band of forced ascent/convection. A strong low-level jet and curved low-level hodographs indicated in forecast soundings may support a few isolated damaging wind gusts or perhaps a brief tornado or two with this convection, even absent widespread lightning. Although confidence is increasing that a band of strongly forced convection will occur along the cold front, confidence remains too low in where damaging wind gusts/brief tornado may occur to introduce unconditional 15% severe probabilities.
In the wake of this cold front, the severe potential looks to be rather limited as surface moisture is suppressed south into the northern Gulf until next weekend at the earliest, when southerly return flow should develop across Texas and Oklahoma.
..Marsh.. 02/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, March 2
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, February 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, February 27 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, February 28 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, March 1 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, March 2 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230837 SPC AC 230837
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
The upper-air pattern across the US will remain characterized as broad, fast, northwest flow for most of the forecast period. Embedded within this flow, a series of shortwave troughs will move across the US. The first, and potentially most impactful of these troughs will move across the eastern US on Thursday and Friday (Days 4 and 5).
A surface low will develop across portions of the Tennessee Valley early in the day Thursday in response to increasing large-scale ascent associated with the aforementioned shortwave trough. This low will quickly move east then northeast, pushing a cold front through much of the Southeast US. A couple days of moisture return will result in surface dewpoints in the 50Fs to perhaps low 60Fs ahead of this cold front. Despite poor lapse rates and meager buoyancy profiles, strong convergence along the front should yield a narrow band of forced ascent/convection. A strong low-level jet and curved low-level hodographs indicated in forecast soundings may support a few isolated damaging wind gusts or perhaps a brief tornado or two with this convection, even absent widespread lightning. Although confidence is increasing that a band of strongly forced convection will occur along the cold front, confidence remains too low in where damaging wind gusts/brief tornado may occur to introduce unconditional 15% severe probabilities.
In the wake of this cold front, the severe potential looks to be rather limited as surface moisture is suppressed south into the northern Gulf until next weekend at the earliest, when southerly return flow should develop across Texas and Oklahoma.
..Marsh.. 02/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, February 23
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, February 24
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Wednesday, February 25
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Thursday, February 26
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, February 27
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, February 28
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, March 1
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, March 2
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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