Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, July 20
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts, severe hail, and a couple of tornadoes will continue across portions of the Upper Great Lakes and Lower Missouri Valley through late tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 210100
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026
Valid 210100Z - 211200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts, severe hail, and a couple of tornadoes will continue across portions of the Upper Great Lakes and Lower Missouri Valley through late tonight.
01Z Update
Water-vapor imagery and VWP data indicate a robust midlevel wave and accompanying belt of 50-60-kt west-northwesterly flow overspreading the Upper Midwest, and this feature will continue east-southeastward across the Great Lakes region tonight. In the low-levels, an attendant cold front will continue east-southeastward across this region as well. In the Upper Great Lakes and Midwest, 50-60 kt of deep-layer shear (sampled by regional VWPs) oriented perpendicular to the cold front and a relatively narrow corridor of strong pre-frontal buoyancy (around 3000 J/kg MLCAPE) will continue to promote semi-discrete supercell structures. Locally damaging wind gusts, severe hail, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible with this activity, given ample low-level hodograph curvature (around 250 m2/s2 effective SRH) beneath the core of a 40-kt LLJ. This activity will generally spread east-southeastward across parts of Lower MI tonight, where a continued risk of damaging wind gusts, severe hail, and a tornado or two will continue ahead of the cold front before encountering increasingly stable air.
Farther south, a couple organized clusters are tracking southward across parts of southern IA and western IL. Given strong cold pools with this activity, the primary concern will be severe wind gusts and isolated/sporadic hail. These storms will continue tracking south-southeastward along a surface-based buoyancy gradient before gradually weakening overnight.
..Weinman.. 07/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Tuesday, July 21
Outlook Summary
Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across a broad region from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Tuesday. All severe hazards are possible, but swaths of damaging wind gusts should be the primary severe risk Tuesday afternoon into the nighttime hours.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 45%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 201730
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
### SUMMARY
Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across a broad region from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Tuesday. All severe hazards are possible, but swaths of damaging wind gusts should be the primary severe risk Tuesday afternoon into the nighttime hours.
Synopsis
High amplitude ridging will build across the western US with continued progressive troughing across the east on Tuesday. Multiple short-wave impulses will rotate through the eastern US trough, with a belt of enhanced northwesterly flow traversing the Midwest into the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front will shift south and east through the period, with a surface low across southern Ontario/Quebec. A pre-frontal surface trough will also be in place across western/central NY into the Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected through the period.
Mid-Atlantic and Northeast
Thunderstorm activity is expected to increase along the pre-frontal trough from western/central New York into the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic late Tuesday morning into the afternoon. Though there may be potential for early morning cloud cover, it does appear that sufficient heating/moistening will occur for at least moderate instability to develop across the region through the afternoon. Mid-level flow will increase through the day along with forcing for ascent. It appears widely scattered thunderstorm activity with several clusters/embedded supercells will be ongoing by the afternoon. Highest confidence in transient embedded supercell modes would be closer to the surface low and near the front across western NY into eastern PA. Here, there may be potential for both damaging wind, large hail, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. Guidance suggests the best signal for damaging wind will be across the Mid-Atlantic, where several damaging clusters could occur. As such, the Enhanced was expanded eastward into portions of the Mid-Atlantic.
Ohio Valley
Evolution of overnight convection will play a large role in development/maintenance of thunderstorm activity across the Ohio Valley Tuesday. It appears that remnant convection will be ongoing at the start of the period near/just ahead of the surface front across northern Kentucky/southern Indiana/Ohio. This will likely re-intensify and continue to expand south and east during the morning as daytime heating begins. Strong daytime heating and moist profiles should support moderate to strong instability developing though the afternoon. Storm mode appears to be generally linear, with the greatest threat being for damaging wind given more linear forcing/initially boundary parallel shear along residual southward moving outflow. As such, the primary hazard will be damaging wind.
Additional thunderstorm development is likely along and ahead of the front through the afternoon with increasing forcing for ascent with approaching shortwaves. Strong deep layer shear may become more boundary perpendicular supporting a supercell or two as the front sags south, with potential for large hail and perhaps a tornado. Confidence in this scenario is on the lower end and the primary hazard is expected to be a secondary wave of damaging wind potential. Should storms be able to cluster and establish a more organized cold pool, potential for some corridor of significant wind may be possible. Overall, no significant wind areas were included given low confidence in exact morning storm evolution and concerns over generally poor lapse rates.
..Thornton.. 07/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Wednesday, July 22
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts across parts of southeast Virginia and North Carolina.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 201920
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts across parts of southeast Virginia and North Carolina.
Discussion
Upper-level troughing will remain in place across the eastern US on D3/Wednesday, with several shortwave impulses rotating through. A cold front will be located roughly from the Mid-Atlantic south into the Carolinas and western Tennessee. Moisture will be largely scoured out behind this front, with the more favorable plume of moist air remaining east of the Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains across southern New England into the Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas. Daytime heating will be maximized from the Mid-Atlantic southward to the Carolinas, where moderate instability will be realized by the afternoon. Instability will be more marginal with north extent into New England, though strong deep layer shear may still support a few organized storms. Widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected near and ahead of the cold front by the afternoon, with the main hazard being damaging wind, with the greatest risk across parts of VA/NC and vicinity.
Outer bands of Tropical Depression Two will bring thunderstorms potential inland across the Gulf States by D3/Wednesday. The tornado threat appears to be too marginal for an outlook area at this time. See advisories from the National Hurricane Center for more information on this potential (nhc.noaa.gov).
..Thornton.. 07/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Thursday, July 23
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, July 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, July 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, July 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, July 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, July 27 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200802 SPC AC 200802
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper troughing will persist across the eastern U.S. through early next week. Meanwhile, a strong, amplified upper ridge will envelop the western half of the CONUS. This should largely limit greater severe potential beneath the upper ridge, though some daily mesoscale-driven strong thunderstorm risk could develop over parts of the Plains as moist southerly low-level flow maintains moisture across the central portions of the country. While any stronger flow aloft will mostly remain north of the international border, some model guidance trends over the last 24 hours indicate strengthening northwesterly flow aloft is possible as a shortwave impulse or two migrates atop the upper ridge and over parts of the northern Plains and Great Lakes. This could support an increasing severe risk across these areas over the weekend, though confidence is too low for any 15 percent probability areas at this time.
..Leitman.. 07/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, July 24
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, July 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, July 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, July 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, July 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, July 27 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200802 SPC AC 200802
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper troughing will persist across the eastern U.S. through early next week. Meanwhile, a strong, amplified upper ridge will envelop the western half of the CONUS. This should largely limit greater severe potential beneath the upper ridge, though some daily mesoscale-driven strong thunderstorm risk could develop over parts of the Plains as moist southerly low-level flow maintains moisture across the central portions of the country. While any stronger flow aloft will mostly remain north of the international border, some model guidance trends over the last 24 hours indicate strengthening northwesterly flow aloft is possible as a shortwave impulse or two migrates atop the upper ridge and over parts of the northern Plains and Great Lakes. This could support an increasing severe risk across these areas over the weekend, though confidence is too low for any 15 percent probability areas at this time.
..Leitman.. 07/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, July 25
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, July 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, July 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, July 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, July 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, July 27 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200802 SPC AC 200802
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper troughing will persist across the eastern U.S. through early next week. Meanwhile, a strong, amplified upper ridge will envelop the western half of the CONUS. This should largely limit greater severe potential beneath the upper ridge, though some daily mesoscale-driven strong thunderstorm risk could develop over parts of the Plains as moist southerly low-level flow maintains moisture across the central portions of the country. While any stronger flow aloft will mostly remain north of the international border, some model guidance trends over the last 24 hours indicate strengthening northwesterly flow aloft is possible as a shortwave impulse or two migrates atop the upper ridge and over parts of the northern Plains and Great Lakes. This could support an increasing severe risk across these areas over the weekend, though confidence is too low for any 15 percent probability areas at this time.
..Leitman.. 07/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, July 26
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, July 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, July 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, July 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, July 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, July 27 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200802 SPC AC 200802
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper troughing will persist across the eastern U.S. through early next week. Meanwhile, a strong, amplified upper ridge will envelop the western half of the CONUS. This should largely limit greater severe potential beneath the upper ridge, though some daily mesoscale-driven strong thunderstorm risk could develop over parts of the Plains as moist southerly low-level flow maintains moisture across the central portions of the country. While any stronger flow aloft will mostly remain north of the international border, some model guidance trends over the last 24 hours indicate strengthening northwesterly flow aloft is possible as a shortwave impulse or two migrates atop the upper ridge and over parts of the northern Plains and Great Lakes. This could support an increasing severe risk across these areas over the weekend, though confidence is too low for any 15 percent probability areas at this time.
..Leitman.. 07/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, July 27
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, July 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, July 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, July 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, July 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, July 27 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200802 SPC AC 200802
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper troughing will persist across the eastern U.S. through early next week. Meanwhile, a strong, amplified upper ridge will envelop the western half of the CONUS. This should largely limit greater severe potential beneath the upper ridge, though some daily mesoscale-driven strong thunderstorm risk could develop over parts of the Plains as moist southerly low-level flow maintains moisture across the central portions of the country. While any stronger flow aloft will mostly remain north of the international border, some model guidance trends over the last 24 hours indicate strengthening northwesterly flow aloft is possible as a shortwave impulse or two migrates atop the upper ridge and over parts of the northern Plains and Great Lakes. This could support an increasing severe risk across these areas over the weekend, though confidence is too low for any 15 percent probability areas at this time.
..Leitman.. 07/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, July 20
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Tuesday, July 21
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 45%
- Wednesday, July 22
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Thursday, July 23
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, July 24
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, July 25
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, July 26
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, July 27
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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