Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Friday, July 24

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado risk are expected this afternoon and evening across portions of North Dakota into northern Minnesota.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 241248

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Valid 241300Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado risk are expected this afternoon and evening across portions of North Dakota into northern Minnesota.

Dakotas/northern Minnesota

Within an amplifying upper-level pattern, multiple low-amplitude mid-level shortwave troughs are forecast to move east-southeastward from the northern Rockies toward North Dakota and northern Minnesota through tonight. A surface trough will trail southwestward from a deep surface cyclone that will move from northern Manitoba/Ontario towards Hudson Bay. A plume of relatively steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread a warm and moist boundary layer along/east of the surface trough, with MLCAPE increasing above 2000 J/kg across parts of North Dakota into northern Minnesota by late afternoon. Strengthening mid/upper-level west-northwesterly flow will result in favorable deep-layer shear, resulting in a conditionally favorable environment for severe storms.

Guidance generally suggests that widely scattered storms will develop along the surface trough by late afternoon across eastern North Dakota into northwest Minnesota. Elongated hodographs and favorable instability will favor supercell development, though some clustering will be possible with time during the evening. Large to very large hail will be the primary initial hazard. Some tornado potential will exist with persistent supercells, as low-level shear/SRH gradually increases onto the evening. Any organized clustering could result in localized corridors of greater severe-wind potential. Some severe threat could persist as storms move into a larger portion of northern/central Minnesota through late evening, with a general weakening trend expected overnight due to increasing CINH and weakening buoyancy.

Farther northwest, some guidance depicts isolated supercell development west of the surface trough across the Canadian Prairies during the late afternoon, which could then move into parts of northern/central North Dakota within a northwesterly flow regime.

Coastal Carolinas vicinity

Near/south of a residual front, relatively strong heating of a richly moist airmass (PW above 2 inches) will result in the development of moderate buoyancy across parts of the coastal Carolinas and southeast Georgia. Scattered storm development is expected by early/mid afternoon. Deep-layer flow will generally be weak, but locally damaging downbursts and outflow winds will be possible within the warm and very moist environment.

Southern High Plains vicinity

On the western periphery of residual early day precipitation/cloud cover, a nearly stationary front draped from eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandles is expected to become a focus for thunderstorm development by late afternoon and early evening. While deep-layer winds will be weak, strong boundary-layer heating/mixing will support potential for localized downbursts.

Parts of the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies

Widely scattered high-based storm development is expected this afternoon from parts of the Great Basin into the northern Rockies, along the periphery of an amplifying upper ridge over the Four Corners region. Buoyancy and deep-layer shear are both expected to remain weak, but strong to locally severe gusts will be possible within the hot and well-mixed regime. Current thinking is any such severe-caliber wind potential should remain very isolated and somewhat marginal in nature.

..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/24/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

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Outlook for Saturday, July 25

Outlook Summary

Isolated severe storms will be possible from the northern Rockies into the upper Midwest, and across portions of southeast Arizona.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 240519

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST…AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA

### SUMMARY

Isolated severe storms will be possible from the northern Rockies into the upper Midwest, and across portions of southeast Arizona.

Synopsis

A prominent mid-level ridge will remain anchored over central North America with the amplification of a downstream trough across the eastern CONUS. At the surface, ridging will be maintained over the Northeast with a weak front along the Southeast coastal areas. That boundary will extend northwest to low pressure over the northern and central Plains.

### Northern Rockies

Forcing for ascent associated with a subtle short-wave trough cresting the ridge axis will combine with heating along the high terrain to foster widely scattered thunderstorm development Saturday afternoon. Area forecast soundings exhibit steep low/mid-level lapse rates, a deeply mixed boundary layer, and MLCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg. Moreover, some enhancement of mid-level flow and resultant vertical shear is forecast, which may support some storm organization with the primary hazard being isolated severe wind gusts.

### South Dakota into the upper Midwest

Cyclogenesis is forecast over western SD along a weak front extending from central MT into MN/WI. The air mass along and south of the boundary in SD is expected to become quite hot with temperatures of 100-110. And while moisture will remain limited, the presence of steep low/mid-level lapse rates will largely contribute to modest instability during the peak of the diurnal heating cycle. Isolated storm development is expected by afternoon into early evening near and south of the front atop the hot, well-mixed boundary layer with latent cooling processes in the sub-cloud layer potentially leading to severe outflow winds.

Farther east into MN and WI, a significantly more moist boundary layer is expected in the vicinity of the front, yielding a moderately to strongly unstable air mass by afternoon. However, notable height rises are forecast with the expansion of the upper ridge into the region, leading to uncertainty in whether surface-based storms will develop due to the strengthening cap. On the condition that storms develop and become sustained, seasonably strong vertical shear will exist to support supercells with the primary hazard being large hail. Low hail and wind probabilities have been included in this forecast to acknowledge the conditional threat.

Saturday night into early Sunday, there is some model signal for elevated storm development along the nocturnal low-level jet. In that scenario, sufficient instability and vertical shear are expected to exist to support some severe weather risk.

### Southeast Arizona

A slight enhancement of easterly mid-level flow is forecast across the region, atop a modestly unstable, but steep-lapse-rate environment. Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop over the Gila Mountains and adjacent high terrain by afternoon with a subsequent movement toward the lower desert floor. Some cold pool organization is possible in areas of storm clustering with an associated risk for locally severe wind gusts.

..Mead.. 07/24/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Sunday, July 26

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms capable of mainly large hail and damaging winds are possible from the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes into portions of the Ohio and mid Missouri Valleys on Sunday and Sunday night.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 240707

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO UPPER MIDWEST

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms capable of mainly large hail and damaging winds are possible from the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes into portions of the Ohio and mid Missouri Valleys on Sunday and Sunday night.

Synopsis

Along the periphery of an upper high anchored over the central and southern Plains, a belt of enhanced mid-level winds will extend from the Pacific Northwest through south-central Canada into the Great Lakes. A series of perturbations will be embedded within the higher-momentum flow regime, the most notable being a disturbance tracking through southern parts of SK and MB into northwest ON and northern MN late Sunday night. A surface low is forecast to follow that same track with an associated trough or weak cool front advancing through the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley.

### Upper Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes

Boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s to mid 70s will coincide with an eastward-expanding EML plume and associated cap to yield a fairly widespread reservoir of moderate to strong instability across the region on Sunday. There is some model signal for a subtle mid-level disturbance to progress from the northern Plains into the upper Midwest during the day with an associated band of forcing for ascent potentially serving as a focus for diurnally enhanced thunderstorm development. However, the absence of discernible surface boundaries and the residual capping leads to uncertainty in the location and extent of diurnally enhanced thunderstorm development. Nonetheless, a conditional severe weather threat will exist with any storms that can become rooted within the boundary layer, given the presence of 35-50 kt deep-layer shear.

More substantial forcing for ascent is forecast Sunday evening into night across the upper MS Valley with the approach of the mid-level wave mentioned in the synopsis. At that time, the surface front will be moving into the area from the west, potentially serving as a focus for thunderstorm development. The 00Z ECMWF in particular depicts a large thunderstorm complex developing over that area with a subsequent southward movement toward the mid MO Valley Sunday night into early Monday. A corridor of enhanced damaging wind potential would exist in that scenario; however, confidence in such an occurrence is presently too low to include higher probabilities and a conditional intensity group 1 contour.

..Mead.. 07/24/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Monday, July 27

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240837 SPC AC 240837

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Monday

A prominent upper high will remain centered over the central and southern Plains with a belt of enhanced mid-level flow forecast along the periphery of that feature from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes. Within that flow regime, a short-wave trough is forecast to translate through the Great Lakes in tandem with a surface low and trailing cold front. A hot and moist boundary layer is expected ahead of the front, yielding moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Despite veered low-level winds, strengthening mid/upper-level winds in the exit region of a jet streak will contribute to sufficient vertical shear for organized severe storms across portions of the Great Lakes into the OH Valley Monday afternoon into night.

### Day 5/Tuesday

The Day 4/Monday short-wave trough is forecast to evolve into an upper low across southwest ON and the lower Great Lakes with an associated belt of stronger cyclonic flow developing from the OH Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic and NC. At the surface, an area of low pressure will develop from the lower Great Lakes into central NY with a trailing cold front advancing through the upper OH Valley, central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic.

Thunderstorms may be ongoing Tuesday morning along and ahead of the front from the lower Great Lakes and upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Stronger heating is anticipated to the south of the early-day storms from the southern Mid-Atlantic into NC, where moderate to potentially strong instability is forecast. The strongest instability will coincide with modestly strong deep-layer shear to support some severe weather threat in those areas Tuesday afternoon and evening.

### Days 6-8/Wednesday-Friday

The 00Z ensemble means depict a slight westward regression of the dominant mid/upper-level high with persistent troughing along the East Coast. On the periphery of the high, a notable short-wave trough is forecast to progress from the Canadian Rockies on Wednesday through the Prairie Provinces on Thursday with modest height falls along the international border. By Friday, there is some model signal for another short-wave trough to move into the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes regions. At the surface, a more substantial cold front is projected to move into the northern Plains on Thursday, and the upper Midwest and Great Lakes by Friday.

A few severe storms appear possible in the Southeast and northern Plains on Wednesday, the northern Plains on Thursday, and the upper Midwest into the Great Lakes on Friday. Confidence in the magnitude and areal extent of the threat is currently too low to delineate additional areas.

..Mead.. 07/24/2026

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Outlook for Tuesday, July 28

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240837 SPC AC 240837

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Monday

A prominent upper high will remain centered over the central and southern Plains with a belt of enhanced mid-level flow forecast along the periphery of that feature from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes. Within that flow regime, a short-wave trough is forecast to translate through the Great Lakes in tandem with a surface low and trailing cold front. A hot and moist boundary layer is expected ahead of the front, yielding moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Despite veered low-level winds, strengthening mid/upper-level winds in the exit region of a jet streak will contribute to sufficient vertical shear for organized severe storms across portions of the Great Lakes into the OH Valley Monday afternoon into night.

### Day 5/Tuesday

The Day 4/Monday short-wave trough is forecast to evolve into an upper low across southwest ON and the lower Great Lakes with an associated belt of stronger cyclonic flow developing from the OH Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic and NC. At the surface, an area of low pressure will develop from the lower Great Lakes into central NY with a trailing cold front advancing through the upper OH Valley, central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic.

Thunderstorms may be ongoing Tuesday morning along and ahead of the front from the lower Great Lakes and upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Stronger heating is anticipated to the south of the early-day storms from the southern Mid-Atlantic into NC, where moderate to potentially strong instability is forecast. The strongest instability will coincide with modestly strong deep-layer shear to support some severe weather threat in those areas Tuesday afternoon and evening.

### Days 6-8/Wednesday-Friday

The 00Z ensemble means depict a slight westward regression of the dominant mid/upper-level high with persistent troughing along the East Coast. On the periphery of the high, a notable short-wave trough is forecast to progress from the Canadian Rockies on Wednesday through the Prairie Provinces on Thursday with modest height falls along the international border. By Friday, there is some model signal for another short-wave trough to move into the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes regions. At the surface, a more substantial cold front is projected to move into the northern Plains on Thursday, and the upper Midwest and Great Lakes by Friday.

A few severe storms appear possible in the Southeast and northern Plains on Wednesday, the northern Plains on Thursday, and the upper Midwest into the Great Lakes on Friday. Confidence in the magnitude and areal extent of the threat is currently too low to delineate additional areas.

..Mead.. 07/24/2026

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Outlook for Wednesday, July 29

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240837 SPC AC 240837

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Monday

A prominent upper high will remain centered over the central and southern Plains with a belt of enhanced mid-level flow forecast along the periphery of that feature from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes. Within that flow regime, a short-wave trough is forecast to translate through the Great Lakes in tandem with a surface low and trailing cold front. A hot and moist boundary layer is expected ahead of the front, yielding moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Despite veered low-level winds, strengthening mid/upper-level winds in the exit region of a jet streak will contribute to sufficient vertical shear for organized severe storms across portions of the Great Lakes into the OH Valley Monday afternoon into night.

### Day 5/Tuesday

The Day 4/Monday short-wave trough is forecast to evolve into an upper low across southwest ON and the lower Great Lakes with an associated belt of stronger cyclonic flow developing from the OH Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic and NC. At the surface, an area of low pressure will develop from the lower Great Lakes into central NY with a trailing cold front advancing through the upper OH Valley, central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic.

Thunderstorms may be ongoing Tuesday morning along and ahead of the front from the lower Great Lakes and upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Stronger heating is anticipated to the south of the early-day storms from the southern Mid-Atlantic into NC, where moderate to potentially strong instability is forecast. The strongest instability will coincide with modestly strong deep-layer shear to support some severe weather threat in those areas Tuesday afternoon and evening.

### Days 6-8/Wednesday-Friday

The 00Z ensemble means depict a slight westward regression of the dominant mid/upper-level high with persistent troughing along the East Coast. On the periphery of the high, a notable short-wave trough is forecast to progress from the Canadian Rockies on Wednesday through the Prairie Provinces on Thursday with modest height falls along the international border. By Friday, there is some model signal for another short-wave trough to move into the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes regions. At the surface, a more substantial cold front is projected to move into the northern Plains on Thursday, and the upper Midwest and Great Lakes by Friday.

A few severe storms appear possible in the Southeast and northern Plains on Wednesday, the northern Plains on Thursday, and the upper Midwest into the Great Lakes on Friday. Confidence in the magnitude and areal extent of the threat is currently too low to delineate additional areas.

..Mead.. 07/24/2026

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Outlook for Thursday, July 30

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240837 SPC AC 240837

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Monday

A prominent upper high will remain centered over the central and southern Plains with a belt of enhanced mid-level flow forecast along the periphery of that feature from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes. Within that flow regime, a short-wave trough is forecast to translate through the Great Lakes in tandem with a surface low and trailing cold front. A hot and moist boundary layer is expected ahead of the front, yielding moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Despite veered low-level winds, strengthening mid/upper-level winds in the exit region of a jet streak will contribute to sufficient vertical shear for organized severe storms across portions of the Great Lakes into the OH Valley Monday afternoon into night.

### Day 5/Tuesday

The Day 4/Monday short-wave trough is forecast to evolve into an upper low across southwest ON and the lower Great Lakes with an associated belt of stronger cyclonic flow developing from the OH Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic and NC. At the surface, an area of low pressure will develop from the lower Great Lakes into central NY with a trailing cold front advancing through the upper OH Valley, central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic.

Thunderstorms may be ongoing Tuesday morning along and ahead of the front from the lower Great Lakes and upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Stronger heating is anticipated to the south of the early-day storms from the southern Mid-Atlantic into NC, where moderate to potentially strong instability is forecast. The strongest instability will coincide with modestly strong deep-layer shear to support some severe weather threat in those areas Tuesday afternoon and evening.

### Days 6-8/Wednesday-Friday

The 00Z ensemble means depict a slight westward regression of the dominant mid/upper-level high with persistent troughing along the East Coast. On the periphery of the high, a notable short-wave trough is forecast to progress from the Canadian Rockies on Wednesday through the Prairie Provinces on Thursday with modest height falls along the international border. By Friday, there is some model signal for another short-wave trough to move into the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes regions. At the surface, a more substantial cold front is projected to move into the northern Plains on Thursday, and the upper Midwest and Great Lakes by Friday.

A few severe storms appear possible in the Southeast and northern Plains on Wednesday, the northern Plains on Thursday, and the upper Midwest into the Great Lakes on Friday. Confidence in the magnitude and areal extent of the threat is currently too low to delineate additional areas.

..Mead.. 07/24/2026

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Outlook for Friday, July 31

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240837 SPC AC 240837

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Monday

A prominent upper high will remain centered over the central and southern Plains with a belt of enhanced mid-level flow forecast along the periphery of that feature from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes. Within that flow regime, a short-wave trough is forecast to translate through the Great Lakes in tandem with a surface low and trailing cold front. A hot and moist boundary layer is expected ahead of the front, yielding moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Despite veered low-level winds, strengthening mid/upper-level winds in the exit region of a jet streak will contribute to sufficient vertical shear for organized severe storms across portions of the Great Lakes into the OH Valley Monday afternoon into night.

### Day 5/Tuesday

The Day 4/Monday short-wave trough is forecast to evolve into an upper low across southwest ON and the lower Great Lakes with an associated belt of stronger cyclonic flow developing from the OH Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic and NC. At the surface, an area of low pressure will develop from the lower Great Lakes into central NY with a trailing cold front advancing through the upper OH Valley, central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic.

Thunderstorms may be ongoing Tuesday morning along and ahead of the front from the lower Great Lakes and upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Stronger heating is anticipated to the south of the early-day storms from the southern Mid-Atlantic into NC, where moderate to potentially strong instability is forecast. The strongest instability will coincide with modestly strong deep-layer shear to support some severe weather threat in those areas Tuesday afternoon and evening.

### Days 6-8/Wednesday-Friday

The 00Z ensemble means depict a slight westward regression of the dominant mid/upper-level high with persistent troughing along the East Coast. On the periphery of the high, a notable short-wave trough is forecast to progress from the Canadian Rockies on Wednesday through the Prairie Provinces on Thursday with modest height falls along the international border. By Friday, there is some model signal for another short-wave trough to move into the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes regions. At the surface, a more substantial cold front is projected to move into the northern Plains on Thursday, and the upper Midwest and Great Lakes by Friday.

A few severe storms appear possible in the Southeast and northern Plains on Wednesday, the northern Plains on Thursday, and the upper Midwest into the Great Lakes on Friday. Confidence in the magnitude and areal extent of the threat is currently too low to delineate additional areas.

..Mead.. 07/24/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Friday, July 24

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Saturday, July 25

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 5%

Sunday, July 26

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Monday, July 27

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Tuesday, July 28

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Wednesday, July 29

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Thursday, July 30

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, July 31

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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