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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Wednesday, April 22
Thursday, April 23
Friday, April 24
Saturday, April 25
Sunday, April 26
Monday, April 27
Tuesday, April 28
Wednesday, April 29

Outlook for Wednesday, April 22

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms with hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible across parts of the High Plains this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible in parts of northeast Indiana and Ohio.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind 5%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 220554

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND FROM NORTHEAST INDIANA INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OHIO

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms with hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible across parts of the High Plains this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible in parts of northeast Indiana and Ohio.

High Plains

At mid-levels today, heights will fall across much of the High Plains, as a ridge moves toward the Mississippi Valley and a trough moves through the Intermountain West. In response, a lee trough will sharpen across the High Plains. To the east of the surface trough, moisture advection will take place. Surface dewpoints will increase into the 55 to 60 F range to the east of a well-developed dryline extending from west Texas northward into southwest Nebraska. Although large-scale ascent will be weak along the dryline, low-level convergence will aid isolated convective initiation during the mid to late afternoon. The most favorable location for storm development will be from northwest Kansas into west-central Nebraska and southern South Dakota, as the low-level jet strengthens in the late afternoon and early evening. In addition to moderate instability, 0-6 km shear is forecast to increase into the 35 to 40 knot range by early evening. This, combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 8.5 to 9 C/km range should be favorable for supercells with isolated large hail, with the greatest potential from northwest Kansas into west-central Nebraska. A few severe wind gusts may also occur from western Kansas into South Dakota.

Further south into west Texas and the Oklahoma Panhandle, the lift supportive of convective development will be confined to weak low-level convergence along the dryline. If a storm can initiate, then a supercell could develop with potential for large hail.

Northeast Indiana/Central and Northern Ohio

A mid-level ridge will move into the upper Mississippi Valley today, as northwesterly mid-level flow persists over the Great Lakes region. At the surface, a slow-moving front will remain in place from southern Wisconsin eastward into southern Michigan. Scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon along and to the south of the front as surface temperatures warm and low-level convergence increases. Model forecasts in the mid to late afternoon from northeast Indiana into central and northern Ohio have MLCAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range, with 0-3 km lapse rates near 8.5 C/km. In addition, 0-6 km shear is forecast to approach 30 knots, which could be enough for a marginal severe threat. Isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible with the stronger multicells in areas that destabilize the most.

..Broyles/Chalmers.. 04/22/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Thursday, April 23

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms will be possible from southern Kansas into southern Minnesota on Thursday. Large hail to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 5%

wind 15%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 220600

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms will be possible from southern Kansas into southern Minnesota on Thursday. Large hail to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible.

Synopsis

A shortwave trough will move northeast along the eastern periphery of a western US longwave trough. This shortwave will help maintain a surface cyclone in southern Canada, while a secondary surface low may develop across southern Minnesota late in the period. A secondary shortwave will approach the southern Plains late in the forecast period.

As the shortwave trough lifts northeast, a cold front will accelerate east across the central and northern Plains. Ahead of the surface front southerly winds will support mid 50F dewpoints as far north as northern Minnesota and pockets of 60F dewpoints perhaps as far north as southern-to-central Minnesota.

Central and Northern Plains

Diurnal heating of the moist airmass ahead of the advancing surface front will yield an increasingly unstable atmosphere during the afternoon with the 20260422/00Z HREF showing ensemble mean SBCAPE values approaching 2000 J/kg as far north as the greater Omaha, NE, vicinity by 20Z. Interrogation of forecast soundings ahead of the frontal boundary shows a strong cap stretching from Oklahoma northward into Nebraska and Iowa. This cap does lift during the day in response to increasing large-scale ascent from the approaching trough, but thunderstorm initiation will likely require convergence along the surface front.

This should occur by mid-afternoon anywhere from northeast Kansas into southern Minnesota. Initially, deep-layer shear is not particularly strong across the warm sector, but would still support a combination of multi-cells and supercells. Given the degree of instability and steep midlevel lapse rates, large-to-very-large hail would be possible with any of these initial storms. A tornado or two would also be possible given some low-level curvature in the forecast hodographs associated with at least a modest low-level jet.

As the cold front continues to move east into the moist and unstable airmass, additional thunderstorms should develop along the front, eventually growing upscale into one or more linear systems and a transition to a damaging wind threat. Vertical shear should improve during the late afternoon and evening as the mid-to-upper-level winds respond to the approach trough, yielding a continued tornado threat with any persistent discrete cell.

Oklahoma and Northwest Texas

A very unstable airmass will develop across the region to the east of a dryline across western Oklahoma during the afternoon. Forecast soundings show varying degrees of a cap across Oklahoma and Northwest Texas. With the strongest large-scale ascent remaining largely to the north of the area, forcing for ascent will likely require strong dryline circulations. Given afternoon temperatures in the 90Fs to the west of the dryline, there is at least some potential for dryline circulations to break the cap and initiate at least a couple of storms. Vertical shear profiles will support supercells capable of very large hail. A highly conditional tornado threat could develop with any discrete storm that is able to move off the dryline and into the increasingly moist and unstable environment to the east.

..Marsh.. 04/22/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Friday, April 24

Outlook Summary

A few severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday. Large hail and damaging wind gusts should be the primary threats.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 220721

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY

### SUMMARY

A few severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday. Large hail and damaging wind gusts should be the primary threats.

Synopsis

A persistent longwave trough will remain situated across the northern US on Friday, maintaining a broad regime of cyclonic midlevel flow over the western two-thirds of the country. Within this broad flow, neutral to modest midlevel height rises are likely across the Southern Plains. This evolution suggests a lack of robust large-scale forcing for ascent, with subtle subsidence potentially acting as a limiting factor for widespread convective coverage.

Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley

At the start of the forecast period, convective activity may be ongoing across portions of northeast Oklahoma, southeast Kansas, southern Missouri, or northern Arkansas along a consolidated outflow boundary/cold front. These storms should slowly weaken during the morning with the loss of large-scale ascent and a weakening low-level jet. The outflow boundary/cold front should slowly sag south through the morning before stalling somewhere in the vicinity of the I40 corridor. This feature will serve as the primary focus for subsequent development later in the afternoon, with residual outflow or differential heating boundaries being a secondary source of initiation.

South of the frontal boundary, a highly unstable airmass will remain in place across the warm sector. Strong diabatic heating of a moist boundary layer will yield pockets of moderate-to-strong instability, with MUCAPE values potentially in the 2000-3000 J/kg range. While deep-layer shear is forecast to remain relatively modest (30-35 knots), the degree of instability will be sufficient to support robust updrafts.

Given the modest shear and lack of stronger synoptic support, storm modes will likely be multicell clusters or transient supercells. Any persistent cell will be capable of producing large hail and localized damaging wind gusts

Lower Mississippi Valley

Convection that develops across Oklahoma and Arkansas during the afternoon is expected to persist into the evening as it moves slowly east-southeast toward Mississippi and Tennessee. Although instability is not as great with eastward extent, it should remain sufficient enough to support some potential for sporadic wind and hail through the overnight hours.

..Marsh.. 04/22/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Saturday, April 25

Outlook Images

any severe 30%

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Saturday, April 25 30%
Day 5 Sunday, April 26 30%
Day 6 Monday, April 27 15%
Day 7 Tuesday, April 28 predictability too low
Day 8 Wednesday, April 29 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220900 SPC AC 220900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

DISCUSSION

An active severe weather pattern will continue through early next week.

On Saturday/Day-4, model guidance continues to show thunderstorms developing during the late afternoon and early evening hours along a lifting warm front across the Southern Plains. Along and south of this boundary, the environment will be strongly unstable with MUCAPE values between 2000-3000 J/kg as a low-level jet continually advects mid 60Fs dewpoints north across the boundary. Effective layer shear around 40 knots would support an initial supercell threat that should grow upscale into bowing segments overnight. A 30% area is introduced across southwest Kansas into east-central Oklahoma for the expectation is for strong bowing segments to move east-southeast overnight into a strong low-level jet. These storms will be capable of producing strong winds, large hail, and QLCS tornadoes.

On Sunday/Day-5, ongoing convection across southeast Kansas and western Missouri at the start of the period may pose a continued risk of hail and damaging winds, and this convection may persist into mid morning. To the west, continued moist low-level advection will allow for surface dewpoints to rise into the upper 60Fs to low 70Fs across central Oklahoma to the east of a sharp dryline. At the same time, a low-amplitude shortwave should approach the Southern Plains during the late afternoon and evening hours, with a mid-990-millibar surface low developing across northwest Oklahoma along the dryline. The result of this setup will be a volatile atmosphere where MLCAPE values around 4000 J/kg exist within a strongly shear environment (vertical shear nearly 50 knots). Should thunderstorms initiate, a high-end severe weather threat could materialize during the late afternoon and evening hours across central and eastern Oklahoma and southern Kansas. However, global models continue to struggle to develop convection within this environment despite model guidance having modest upward vertical velocities overspreading the dryline. Pattern recognition suggests the need for a 30% severe area for this potential despite the lack of a QPF signal in the global models, and have opted to add one with this forecast. The location of this 30% will likely need to be refined in subsequent outlooks.

The severe threat should continue into Monday/Day-6 across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley. Strong storms should develop along and ahead of an eastward moving cold front. MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and 40-knots of deep-layer shear will support supercell thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards. The location, number, and intensity of these supercells will likely be modulated by the events of Sunday. Specifically, if widespread convection does not occur Sunday across the Southern Plains, a more robust reservoir of CAPE/lapse-rates will be available to thunderstorms across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Monday and a higher-end severe potential may develop. This will be monitored in subsequent forecasts.

By Tuesday/Day-7 into Wednesday/Day-8, uncertainty in the severe potential across the southeast increases too much to have confidence in identifying specific locations. Although, as the mesoscale details become cleared in the preceding days, areas may need to be added in subsequent forecasts.

..Marsh.. 04/22/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, April 26

Outlook Images

any severe 30%

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Saturday, April 25 30%
Day 5 Sunday, April 26 30%
Day 6 Monday, April 27 15%
Day 7 Tuesday, April 28 predictability too low
Day 8 Wednesday, April 29 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220900 SPC AC 220900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

DISCUSSION

An active severe weather pattern will continue through early next week.

On Saturday/Day-4, model guidance continues to show thunderstorms developing during the late afternoon and early evening hours along a lifting warm front across the Southern Plains. Along and south of this boundary, the environment will be strongly unstable with MUCAPE values between 2000-3000 J/kg as a low-level jet continually advects mid 60Fs dewpoints north across the boundary. Effective layer shear around 40 knots would support an initial supercell threat that should grow upscale into bowing segments overnight. A 30% area is introduced across southwest Kansas into east-central Oklahoma for the expectation is for strong bowing segments to move east-southeast overnight into a strong low-level jet. These storms will be capable of producing strong winds, large hail, and QLCS tornadoes.

On Sunday/Day-5, ongoing convection across southeast Kansas and western Missouri at the start of the period may pose a continued risk of hail and damaging winds, and this convection may persist into mid morning. To the west, continued moist low-level advection will allow for surface dewpoints to rise into the upper 60Fs to low 70Fs across central Oklahoma to the east of a sharp dryline. At the same time, a low-amplitude shortwave should approach the Southern Plains during the late afternoon and evening hours, with a mid-990-millibar surface low developing across northwest Oklahoma along the dryline. The result of this setup will be a volatile atmosphere where MLCAPE values around 4000 J/kg exist within a strongly shear environment (vertical shear nearly 50 knots). Should thunderstorms initiate, a high-end severe weather threat could materialize during the late afternoon and evening hours across central and eastern Oklahoma and southern Kansas. However, global models continue to struggle to develop convection within this environment despite model guidance having modest upward vertical velocities overspreading the dryline. Pattern recognition suggests the need for a 30% severe area for this potential despite the lack of a QPF signal in the global models, and have opted to add one with this forecast. The location of this 30% will likely need to be refined in subsequent outlooks.

The severe threat should continue into Monday/Day-6 across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley. Strong storms should develop along and ahead of an eastward moving cold front. MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and 40-knots of deep-layer shear will support supercell thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards. The location, number, and intensity of these supercells will likely be modulated by the events of Sunday. Specifically, if widespread convection does not occur Sunday across the Southern Plains, a more robust reservoir of CAPE/lapse-rates will be available to thunderstorms across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Monday and a higher-end severe potential may develop. This will be monitored in subsequent forecasts.

By Tuesday/Day-7 into Wednesday/Day-8, uncertainty in the severe potential across the southeast increases too much to have confidence in identifying specific locations. Although, as the mesoscale details become cleared in the preceding days, areas may need to be added in subsequent forecasts.

..Marsh.. 04/22/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Monday, April 27

Outlook Images

any severe 15%

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Saturday, April 25 30%
Day 5 Sunday, April 26 30%
Day 6 Monday, April 27 15%
Day 7 Tuesday, April 28 predictability too low
Day 8 Wednesday, April 29 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220900 SPC AC 220900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

DISCUSSION

An active severe weather pattern will continue through early next week.

On Saturday/Day-4, model guidance continues to show thunderstorms developing during the late afternoon and early evening hours along a lifting warm front across the Southern Plains. Along and south of this boundary, the environment will be strongly unstable with MUCAPE values between 2000-3000 J/kg as a low-level jet continually advects mid 60Fs dewpoints north across the boundary. Effective layer shear around 40 knots would support an initial supercell threat that should grow upscale into bowing segments overnight. A 30% area is introduced across southwest Kansas into east-central Oklahoma for the expectation is for strong bowing segments to move east-southeast overnight into a strong low-level jet. These storms will be capable of producing strong winds, large hail, and QLCS tornadoes.

On Sunday/Day-5, ongoing convection across southeast Kansas and western Missouri at the start of the period may pose a continued risk of hail and damaging winds, and this convection may persist into mid morning. To the west, continued moist low-level advection will allow for surface dewpoints to rise into the upper 60Fs to low 70Fs across central Oklahoma to the east of a sharp dryline. At the same time, a low-amplitude shortwave should approach the Southern Plains during the late afternoon and evening hours, with a mid-990-millibar surface low developing across northwest Oklahoma along the dryline. The result of this setup will be a volatile atmosphere where MLCAPE values around 4000 J/kg exist within a strongly shear environment (vertical shear nearly 50 knots). Should thunderstorms initiate, a high-end severe weather threat could materialize during the late afternoon and evening hours across central and eastern Oklahoma and southern Kansas. However, global models continue to struggle to develop convection within this environment despite model guidance having modest upward vertical velocities overspreading the dryline. Pattern recognition suggests the need for a 30% severe area for this potential despite the lack of a QPF signal in the global models, and have opted to add one with this forecast. The location of this 30% will likely need to be refined in subsequent outlooks.

The severe threat should continue into Monday/Day-6 across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley. Strong storms should develop along and ahead of an eastward moving cold front. MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and 40-knots of deep-layer shear will support supercell thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards. The location, number, and intensity of these supercells will likely be modulated by the events of Sunday. Specifically, if widespread convection does not occur Sunday across the Southern Plains, a more robust reservoir of CAPE/lapse-rates will be available to thunderstorms across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Monday and a higher-end severe potential may develop. This will be monitored in subsequent forecasts.

By Tuesday/Day-7 into Wednesday/Day-8, uncertainty in the severe potential across the southeast increases too much to have confidence in identifying specific locations. Although, as the mesoscale details become cleared in the preceding days, areas may need to be added in subsequent forecasts.

..Marsh.. 04/22/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Tuesday, April 28

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Saturday, April 25 30%
Day 5 Sunday, April 26 30%
Day 6 Monday, April 27 15%
Day 7 Tuesday, April 28 predictability too low
Day 8 Wednesday, April 29 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220900 SPC AC 220900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

DISCUSSION

An active severe weather pattern will continue through early next week.

On Saturday/Day-4, model guidance continues to show thunderstorms developing during the late afternoon and early evening hours along a lifting warm front across the Southern Plains. Along and south of this boundary, the environment will be strongly unstable with MUCAPE values between 2000-3000 J/kg as a low-level jet continually advects mid 60Fs dewpoints north across the boundary. Effective layer shear around 40 knots would support an initial supercell threat that should grow upscale into bowing segments overnight. A 30% area is introduced across southwest Kansas into east-central Oklahoma for the expectation is for strong bowing segments to move east-southeast overnight into a strong low-level jet. These storms will be capable of producing strong winds, large hail, and QLCS tornadoes.

On Sunday/Day-5, ongoing convection across southeast Kansas and western Missouri at the start of the period may pose a continued risk of hail and damaging winds, and this convection may persist into mid morning. To the west, continued moist low-level advection will allow for surface dewpoints to rise into the upper 60Fs to low 70Fs across central Oklahoma to the east of a sharp dryline. At the same time, a low-amplitude shortwave should approach the Southern Plains during the late afternoon and evening hours, with a mid-990-millibar surface low developing across northwest Oklahoma along the dryline. The result of this setup will be a volatile atmosphere where MLCAPE values around 4000 J/kg exist within a strongly shear environment (vertical shear nearly 50 knots). Should thunderstorms initiate, a high-end severe weather threat could materialize during the late afternoon and evening hours across central and eastern Oklahoma and southern Kansas. However, global models continue to struggle to develop convection within this environment despite model guidance having modest upward vertical velocities overspreading the dryline. Pattern recognition suggests the need for a 30% severe area for this potential despite the lack of a QPF signal in the global models, and have opted to add one with this forecast. The location of this 30% will likely need to be refined in subsequent outlooks.

The severe threat should continue into Monday/Day-6 across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley. Strong storms should develop along and ahead of an eastward moving cold front. MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and 40-knots of deep-layer shear will support supercell thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards. The location, number, and intensity of these supercells will likely be modulated by the events of Sunday. Specifically, if widespread convection does not occur Sunday across the Southern Plains, a more robust reservoir of CAPE/lapse-rates will be available to thunderstorms across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Monday and a higher-end severe potential may develop. This will be monitored in subsequent forecasts.

By Tuesday/Day-7 into Wednesday/Day-8, uncertainty in the severe potential across the southeast increases too much to have confidence in identifying specific locations. Although, as the mesoscale details become cleared in the preceding days, areas may need to be added in subsequent forecasts.

..Marsh.. 04/22/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Wednesday, April 29

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Saturday, April 25 30%
Day 5 Sunday, April 26 30%
Day 6 Monday, April 27 15%
Day 7 Tuesday, April 28 predictability too low
Day 8 Wednesday, April 29 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220900 SPC AC 220900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

DISCUSSION

An active severe weather pattern will continue through early next week.

On Saturday/Day-4, model guidance continues to show thunderstorms developing during the late afternoon and early evening hours along a lifting warm front across the Southern Plains. Along and south of this boundary, the environment will be strongly unstable with MUCAPE values between 2000-3000 J/kg as a low-level jet continually advects mid 60Fs dewpoints north across the boundary. Effective layer shear around 40 knots would support an initial supercell threat that should grow upscale into bowing segments overnight. A 30% area is introduced across southwest Kansas into east-central Oklahoma for the expectation is for strong bowing segments to move east-southeast overnight into a strong low-level jet. These storms will be capable of producing strong winds, large hail, and QLCS tornadoes.

On Sunday/Day-5, ongoing convection across southeast Kansas and western Missouri at the start of the period may pose a continued risk of hail and damaging winds, and this convection may persist into mid morning. To the west, continued moist low-level advection will allow for surface dewpoints to rise into the upper 60Fs to low 70Fs across central Oklahoma to the east of a sharp dryline. At the same time, a low-amplitude shortwave should approach the Southern Plains during the late afternoon and evening hours, with a mid-990-millibar surface low developing across northwest Oklahoma along the dryline. The result of this setup will be a volatile atmosphere where MLCAPE values around 4000 J/kg exist within a strongly shear environment (vertical shear nearly 50 knots). Should thunderstorms initiate, a high-end severe weather threat could materialize during the late afternoon and evening hours across central and eastern Oklahoma and southern Kansas. However, global models continue to struggle to develop convection within this environment despite model guidance having modest upward vertical velocities overspreading the dryline. Pattern recognition suggests the need for a 30% severe area for this potential despite the lack of a QPF signal in the global models, and have opted to add one with this forecast. The location of this 30% will likely need to be refined in subsequent outlooks.

The severe threat should continue into Monday/Day-6 across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley. Strong storms should develop along and ahead of an eastward moving cold front. MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and 40-knots of deep-layer shear will support supercell thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards. The location, number, and intensity of these supercells will likely be modulated by the events of Sunday. Specifically, if widespread convection does not occur Sunday across the Southern Plains, a more robust reservoir of CAPE/lapse-rates will be available to thunderstorms across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Monday and a higher-end severe potential may develop. This will be monitored in subsequent forecasts.

By Tuesday/Day-7 into Wednesday/Day-8, uncertainty in the severe potential across the southeast increases too much to have confidence in identifying specific locations. Although, as the mesoscale details become cleared in the preceding days, areas may need to be added in subsequent forecasts.

..Marsh.. 04/22/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, April 22
TORNADO: low
HAIL: 5%
WIND: 5%
Thursday, April 23
TORNADO: 5%
HAIL: 15%
WIND: 15%
Friday, April 24
ANY SEVERE: 15%
Saturday, April 25
ANY SEVERE: 30%
Sunday, April 26
ANY SEVERE: 30%
Monday, April 27
ANY SEVERE: 15%
Tuesday, April 28
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, April 29
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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