Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, January 16
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 161621
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026
Valid 161630Z - 171200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight.
Discussion
A longwave trough will remain entrenched from the Rockies eastward, with multiple shortwave troughs crossing the Upper Midwest and Rockies. Surface high pressure across the Plains and prevalent cold and/or stable conditions will considerably limit thunderstorm potential, even near/ahead of a southeastward-moving front approaching the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf Coast.
..Guyer/Squitieri.. 01/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Saturday, January 17
Outlook Summary
No severe thunderstorms are expected on Saturday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 161700
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
No severe thunderstorms are expected on Saturday.
Discussion
A midlevel shortwave trough initially over the central High Plains will move into the base of a larger-scale trough encompassing the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS. In response, a weak surface front and related moisture will move northward into southeastern FL during the overnight and early morning hours. While buoyancy will be limited (especially over land areas), isolated thunderstorms will be possible across the Upper Keys and far southeastern FL. Most guidance depicts the bulk of this activity remaining offshore, and eventual removal of the TSTM area may be warranted if this trend continues.
..Weinman.. 01/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Sunday, January 18
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 160705
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.
Synopsis
An upper trough will move across the eastern U.S. through Sunday evening. Thereafter, broad upper troughing will persist across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies. At the surface, a cold front will develop southeast across the FL Peninsula through afternoon. Sufficient boundary layer moisture will be present to support weak buoyancy. Large-scale ascent associated with the approaching upper trough, and along the surface front, may support isolated thunderstorm activity across portions of the Keys into the southeast FL Peninsula during the morning and afternoon before the cold front moves offshore. Severe storms are not expected.
..Leitman.. 01/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Monday, January 19
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, January 19 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, January 20 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, January 21 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, January 22 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, January 23 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160834 SPC AC 160834
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Broad upper troughing will persist across much of the CONUS from the Rockies to the Eastern Seaboard during the Day 4-8 period. Surface high pressure will largely keep Gulf moisture well offshore, with cold air intrusions into the Plains and eastern U.S. precluding much in the way of thunderstorm potential.
The exception may be briefly on Day 6/Wednesday across portions of the Texas Coastal Plain vicinity. As a reinforcing shortwave upper trough ejects across the Rockies, lee surface low development over western TX will allow for very modest Gulf moisture to filter into south/southeast TX. A cold front will sweep south/southeast during the evening/overnight and isolated thunderstorms could develop. Severe potential appears low given modest moisture/limited destabilization.
..Leitman.. 01/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, January 20
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, January 19 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, January 20 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, January 21 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, January 22 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, January 23 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160834 SPC AC 160834
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Broad upper troughing will persist across much of the CONUS from the Rockies to the Eastern Seaboard during the Day 4-8 period. Surface high pressure will largely keep Gulf moisture well offshore, with cold air intrusions into the Plains and eastern U.S. precluding much in the way of thunderstorm potential.
The exception may be briefly on Day 6/Wednesday across portions of the Texas Coastal Plain vicinity. As a reinforcing shortwave upper trough ejects across the Rockies, lee surface low development over western TX will allow for very modest Gulf moisture to filter into south/southeast TX. A cold front will sweep south/southeast during the evening/overnight and isolated thunderstorms could develop. Severe potential appears low given modest moisture/limited destabilization.
..Leitman.. 01/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, January 21
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, January 19 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, January 20 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, January 21 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, January 22 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, January 23 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160834 SPC AC 160834
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Broad upper troughing will persist across much of the CONUS from the Rockies to the Eastern Seaboard during the Day 4-8 period. Surface high pressure will largely keep Gulf moisture well offshore, with cold air intrusions into the Plains and eastern U.S. precluding much in the way of thunderstorm potential.
The exception may be briefly on Day 6/Wednesday across portions of the Texas Coastal Plain vicinity. As a reinforcing shortwave upper trough ejects across the Rockies, lee surface low development over western TX will allow for very modest Gulf moisture to filter into south/southeast TX. A cold front will sweep south/southeast during the evening/overnight and isolated thunderstorms could develop. Severe potential appears low given modest moisture/limited destabilization.
..Leitman.. 01/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, January 22
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, January 19 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, January 20 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, January 21 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, January 22 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, January 23 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160834 SPC AC 160834
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Broad upper troughing will persist across much of the CONUS from the Rockies to the Eastern Seaboard during the Day 4-8 period. Surface high pressure will largely keep Gulf moisture well offshore, with cold air intrusions into the Plains and eastern U.S. precluding much in the way of thunderstorm potential.
The exception may be briefly on Day 6/Wednesday across portions of the Texas Coastal Plain vicinity. As a reinforcing shortwave upper trough ejects across the Rockies, lee surface low development over western TX will allow for very modest Gulf moisture to filter into south/southeast TX. A cold front will sweep south/southeast during the evening/overnight and isolated thunderstorms could develop. Severe potential appears low given modest moisture/limited destabilization.
..Leitman.. 01/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, January 23
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, January 19 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, January 20 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, January 21 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, January 22 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, January 23 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160834 SPC AC 160834
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Broad upper troughing will persist across much of the CONUS from the Rockies to the Eastern Seaboard during the Day 4-8 period. Surface high pressure will largely keep Gulf moisture well offshore, with cold air intrusions into the Plains and eastern U.S. precluding much in the way of thunderstorm potential.
The exception may be briefly on Day 6/Wednesday across portions of the Texas Coastal Plain vicinity. As a reinforcing shortwave upper trough ejects across the Rockies, lee surface low development over western TX will allow for very modest Gulf moisture to filter into south/southeast TX. A cold front will sweep south/southeast during the evening/overnight and isolated thunderstorms could develop. Severe potential appears low given modest moisture/limited destabilization.
..Leitman.. 01/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, January 16
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Saturday, January 17
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Sunday, January 18
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Monday, January 19
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, January 20
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, January 21
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, January 22
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, January 23
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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