Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, July 14
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes are expected tonight across parts of northern New York and New England. Thunderstorms with scattered severe winds and hail will also be possible across portions of Montana.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 30%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 150059
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026
Valid 150100Z - 151200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF NEW YORK…VERMONT…AND NEW HAMPSHIRE…AND A SMALL PART OF WESTERN MAINE
### THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MONTANA AND SURROUNDING THE ENHANCED RISK IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes are expected tonight across parts of northern New York and New England. Thunderstorms with scattered severe winds and hail will also be possible across portions of Montana.
New England and the northern Mid-Atlantic
The glancing influence of a shortwave trough and associated mid/upper-level jet streaks moving through Quebec have contributed to a recent increase in storm coverage and intensity from portions of the St. Lawrence Valley into northern parts of VT and NH. Owing to considerable clouds and wildfire smoke, a baroclinic zone is analyzed from northern VT through central NH to the Southern Coast of ME. The 00z observed soundings across the region indicate the presence of a capping inversion at the base of a relatively warm and dry EML, which casts some uncertainty on updraft intensity and duration, owing to the deleterious effects of entrainment and existing convective inhibition.
However, any storms that can become sustained will do so within a kinematic environment featuring strong deep-layer shear, which will conditionally support the potential for large hail, damaging winds with significant gusts to 70-75 mph possible, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. The best potential for that threat to be realized may be with the rapidly intensifying storms across portions of eastern Ontario, which are projected to reach northern NY within the next 2-3 hours. As such, severe probabilities have been adjusted in portions of NY to account for the Ontario storms.
### Montana
A cluster of supercells capable of large hail has developed this evening over central MT within a relatively moist, post-frontal upslope regime within MLCAPE as high as 2000-3000 J/kg, per latest objective analysis. With time, the presence of large temperature-dewpoint spreads and a resultant, well-mixed boundary layer will enhance downdraft potential, leading to a cold-pool driven convective system with an attendant risk for damaging winds with gusts up to 75 mph.
For additional near-term guidance, see MCD 1617.
..Mead.. 07/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Wednesday, July 15
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 141729
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday.
Parts of the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast/New England
To the south of a persistent deep-layer cyclone east of Hudson Bay, another in a series of mid/upper shortwave troughs is forecast to move across parts of New England on Wednesday. A cold front (whose position will be influenced by D1/Tuesday convection) will move southward across the northern Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Strong heating is expected near/south of the cold front, with temperatures rising through the 90s F, and approaching 100 F in some areas. Amid this strong heating, moisture will be sufficient for moderate destabilization, while rather strong mid/upper-level northwesterly flow will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection.
While a zone of conditionally favorable environment is expected near the front, uncertainty remains regarding the coverage (if any) of diurnal storm development. ARW-based CAMs remain the most aggressive in developing isolated storms near the front during the afternoon, with most other guidance remaining muted at best. While confidence remains rather low, a Marginal Risk has been added for parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic, where the relative greatest signal for isolated storm development overlaps the most favorable environment. Locally damaging wind may be the most likely threat, given the hot conditions and steep low-level lapse rates, though hail cannot be ruled out, with supercell-favorable shear and sufficient instability expected to be in place.
Across parts of Maine and vicinity, relatively low-topped convective showers (perhaps capable of sporadic lightning flashes) may develop during the afternoon, as the mid/upper-level shortwave trough moves across the region. Gusty winds could accompany this convection, due to the presence of steep low-level lapse rates and modestly enhanced low-level westerly flow. At this time, convection is expected to remain too weak and low-topped for an organized severe threat.
Farther west into parts of the Great Lakes, some guidance suggests potential for very isolated storm development, along the portion of the front that extends west-northwest from the northern Mid-Atlantic region. Large-scale ascent currently appears weak to negligible across this area, but the environment will otherwise be favorable for a localized damaging-wind threat, with steep low-level lapse rates, moderate buoyancy, and relatively favorable deep-layer shear. Severe probabilities may eventually be needed, if confidence increases in storm development across parts of lower MI/northern OH or points farther northwest.
Parts of the Northwest/northern Rockies
Scattered storms are again expected across parts of western/central MT and northern WY, in the presence of monsoonal moisture. Increased cloudiness and somewhat weaker diurnal heating (compared to D1/Tuesday) may tend to limit a more organized severe threat in the presence of modest deep-layer flow/shear, though locally strong storms will be possible during the afternoon and evening. A few strong storms may also develop across parts of central/northern OR, where modestly stronger mid/upper-level flow will overlap the northern extent of appreciable destabilization.
..Dean.. 07/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Thursday, July 16
Outlook Summary
Organized severe thunderstorms are currently not expected on Thursday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 141927
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Organized severe thunderstorms are currently not expected on Thursday.
Synopsis
A deep-layer cyclone is expected to remain in place over parts of Labrador and northern Quebec on Thursday. A vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave is forecast to move through the base of the attendant trough across parts of northern New England. To the west, a mid/upper-level cyclone off of the Pacific Northwest coast is forecast to move north-northeastward toward Vancouver Island. Farther south, a persistent mid/upper-level trough will continue to bring a threat of widespread convection and heavy rainfall across parts of southwest TX and vicinity. Thunderstorm potential will cover a large part of the CONUS, though generally weak mid/upper-level flow should limit potential for organized convection across most areas.
Northern New England
A strong reinforcing front will accompany the mid/upper shortwave moving across northern New England on Thursday. Guidance varies considerably regarding the extent of heating and destabilization along/ahead of this front. The more aggressive guidance (such as the NAM NEST and RRFS) depicts MLCAPE increasing to near/above 500 J/kg, sufficient for organized convection given the strength of the low-midlevel wind fields. Other guidance depicts very limited destabilization and severe potential. Depending on trends regarding destabilization and timing of the front, severe probabilities may eventually be needed.
Mid-Atlantic
While large-scale ascent will generally be weak, strong heating in the vicinity of a remnant frontal zone may allow for isolated storm development across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and vicinity on Thursday. Low-level flow will be weak and deep-layer shear will be modest at best, but localized strong/damaging gusts could occur, if sustained storms develop within this hot and well-mixed regime.
Interior Northwest
While the magnitude of diurnal destabilization across parts of the interior Northwest remains uncertain, some potential for strong-storm development could evolve as stronger mid/upper-level flow associated with the offshore low overspreads the region. This area will continue to be monitored regarding the need for severe probabilities.
..Dean.. 07/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Friday, July 17
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, July 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, July 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, July 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, July 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, July 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140901 SPC AC 140901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Ensemble guidance remains in good agreement that the US mid-level pattern will transition from a CONUS-wide ridge centered over the north-central US to a western US ridge and eastern US trough. However the details of how this transition evolves are still uncertain.
The general pattern through the forecast period will favor northwest flow from the Upper Midwest southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and areas north and east from there. Individual members of the ensemble suite, including the control members, show several small vorticity/speed maxima moving through the flow this weekend in quick succession, with significant variability in the strength of these waves. Ensemble guidance does have support for a more substantial shortwave trough moving through the area, but differ on when this will occur. For example, both the control runs of the ECMWF and GFS have a stronger wave moving across the Great Lakes, but the GFS does so on Saturday and Sunday, whereas the ECMWF does so on Monday and Tuesday.
Thus, while the overall pattern will favor thunderstorm development, perhaps in relatively quick succession, uncertainty is too high to highlight any severe areas with confidence at current lead times.
..Marsh.. 07/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, July 18
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, July 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, July 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, July 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, July 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, July 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140901 SPC AC 140901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Ensemble guidance remains in good agreement that the US mid-level pattern will transition from a CONUS-wide ridge centered over the north-central US to a western US ridge and eastern US trough. However the details of how this transition evolves are still uncertain.
The general pattern through the forecast period will favor northwest flow from the Upper Midwest southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and areas north and east from there. Individual members of the ensemble suite, including the control members, show several small vorticity/speed maxima moving through the flow this weekend in quick succession, with significant variability in the strength of these waves. Ensemble guidance does have support for a more substantial shortwave trough moving through the area, but differ on when this will occur. For example, both the control runs of the ECMWF and GFS have a stronger wave moving across the Great Lakes, but the GFS does so on Saturday and Sunday, whereas the ECMWF does so on Monday and Tuesday.
Thus, while the overall pattern will favor thunderstorm development, perhaps in relatively quick succession, uncertainty is too high to highlight any severe areas with confidence at current lead times.
..Marsh.. 07/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, July 19
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, July 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, July 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, July 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, July 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, July 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140901 SPC AC 140901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Ensemble guidance remains in good agreement that the US mid-level pattern will transition from a CONUS-wide ridge centered over the north-central US to a western US ridge and eastern US trough. However the details of how this transition evolves are still uncertain.
The general pattern through the forecast period will favor northwest flow from the Upper Midwest southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and areas north and east from there. Individual members of the ensemble suite, including the control members, show several small vorticity/speed maxima moving through the flow this weekend in quick succession, with significant variability in the strength of these waves. Ensemble guidance does have support for a more substantial shortwave trough moving through the area, but differ on when this will occur. For example, both the control runs of the ECMWF and GFS have a stronger wave moving across the Great Lakes, but the GFS does so on Saturday and Sunday, whereas the ECMWF does so on Monday and Tuesday.
Thus, while the overall pattern will favor thunderstorm development, perhaps in relatively quick succession, uncertainty is too high to highlight any severe areas with confidence at current lead times.
..Marsh.. 07/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, July 20
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, July 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, July 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, July 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, July 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, July 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140901 SPC AC 140901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Ensemble guidance remains in good agreement that the US mid-level pattern will transition from a CONUS-wide ridge centered over the north-central US to a western US ridge and eastern US trough. However the details of how this transition evolves are still uncertain.
The general pattern through the forecast period will favor northwest flow from the Upper Midwest southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and areas north and east from there. Individual members of the ensemble suite, including the control members, show several small vorticity/speed maxima moving through the flow this weekend in quick succession, with significant variability in the strength of these waves. Ensemble guidance does have support for a more substantial shortwave trough moving through the area, but differ on when this will occur. For example, both the control runs of the ECMWF and GFS have a stronger wave moving across the Great Lakes, but the GFS does so on Saturday and Sunday, whereas the ECMWF does so on Monday and Tuesday.
Thus, while the overall pattern will favor thunderstorm development, perhaps in relatively quick succession, uncertainty is too high to highlight any severe areas with confidence at current lead times.
..Marsh.. 07/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, July 21
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, July 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, July 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, July 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, July 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, July 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140901 SPC AC 140901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Ensemble guidance remains in good agreement that the US mid-level pattern will transition from a CONUS-wide ridge centered over the north-central US to a western US ridge and eastern US trough. However the details of how this transition evolves are still uncertain.
The general pattern through the forecast period will favor northwest flow from the Upper Midwest southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and areas north and east from there. Individual members of the ensemble suite, including the control members, show several small vorticity/speed maxima moving through the flow this weekend in quick succession, with significant variability in the strength of these waves. Ensemble guidance does have support for a more substantial shortwave trough moving through the area, but differ on when this will occur. For example, both the control runs of the ECMWF and GFS have a stronger wave moving across the Great Lakes, but the GFS does so on Saturday and Sunday, whereas the ECMWF does so on Monday and Tuesday.
Thus, while the overall pattern will favor thunderstorm development, perhaps in relatively quick succession, uncertainty is too high to highlight any severe areas with confidence at current lead times.
..Marsh.. 07/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, July 14
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 30%
- Wednesday, July 15
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Thursday, July 16
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Friday, July 17
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, July 18
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, July 19
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, July 20
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, July 21
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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