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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Thursday, July 30

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern Plains. Isolated severe gusts may also occur along parts of the eastern Gulf Coast.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 300549

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern Plains. Isolated severe gusts may also occur along parts of the eastern Gulf Coast.

Central and Northern Plains

At mid-levels, a shortwave ridge will move eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley today as a shortwave trough and an associated cold front, move through the northern Plains. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the lower 70s F with moderate instability developing across much of the moist airmass by late morning. Convection is expected to initiate near the front around midday with coverage expanding during the afternoon. MCS development will be possible during the late afternoon and early evening from eastern South Dakota southwestward into central Nebraska.

RAP forecast soundings at 21Z from Huron, South Dakota southward to near Grand Island, Nebraska have MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range and 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 35 knot range. This should be sufficient for a mixed mode including potential for supercells and severe line segments. The primary threat will be for damaging wind gusts with any cell or line that can become intense in areas that destabilize the most. The severe threat may persist into the early to mid evening as a relatively large convective cluster moves southward into the central Plains.

Further west into parts of the High Plains, pockets of moderate instability may develop from southeastern Colorado into western Kansas and across eastern Montana. Although large-scale ascent is forecast to be relatively weak in these areas, topographic forcing will aid convective initiation. In the mid to late afternoon, isolated to scattered storms will move southeastward into the lower elevations. Localized strong to severe wind gusts and hail will be the primary threats.

Eastern Gulf Coast

A quasi-stationary front will be in place today from the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia. Near and to the south of the front, surface dewpoints in the 70s F will contribute to moderate destabilization. As low-level convergence increases during the day near the front, isolated to scattered storms are expected to form and move southeastward into the moist and unstable air. Moderate instability and steep low-level lapse rates may support an isolated threat for severe wind gusts this afternoon.

..Broyles/Squitieri.. 07/30/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Friday, July 31

Outlook Summary

At least isolated severe storms appear possible from Iowa southward into the Ozark Plateau, and over the central and southern High Plains Friday afternoon and evening. Sporadic occurrences of damaging wind and large hail will be the primary hazards with a conditional risk for a few tornadoes, mainly in Missouri.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 300528

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM IOWA SOUTHWARD INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU…AND OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS

### SUMMARY

At least isolated severe storms appear possible from Iowa southward into the Ozark Plateau, and over the central and southern High Plains Friday afternoon and evening. Sporadic occurrences of damaging wind and large hail will be the primary hazards with a conditional risk for a few tornadoes, mainly in Missouri.

Synopsis

A short-wave trough from the upper Midwest into mid MO Valley Friday morning will translate into the mid MS Valley with a belt of 30-35 kt winds forecast within the western through southern periphery of that feature. At the surface, an area of low pressure is expected to undergo slight deepening while developing from northwest or central IA at the start of the period into southern IL by late Friday night. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will advance south/southeast into the southern Plains and Ozark Plateau.

### Lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys into the Ozark Plateau

Mainly elevated showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at 12Z Friday across portions of IA and MO within a zone of forcing for ascent ahead of the mid-level system, and warm advection and moisture transport along a 30-40 kt low-level jet. Those mechanisms are likely to sustain deep convection through the morning into afternoon east of the surface low, mainly across IL. In the wake of the early-day storms and where cloud breaks can occur, daytime heating combined with boundary-layer dewpoints in the low to mid 70s is expected to yield a relatively narrow axis of moderate instability with MLCAPE of 1000-2500+ J/kg.

Additional surface-based storms are expected to develop by early- to mid afternoon initially near the surface low in south-central or southeast IA with subsequent southward development along or ahead of the front across MO. The 00Z CAMs suggest that the initial storm mode will be semi-discrete, which is consistent with model forecasts of 30-35 kt deep-layer shear vectors oriented largely perpendicular to the initiating boundary.

While some marginally severe hail is possible with any supercell structures, warm mid-level temperatures will contribute to considerable melting, potentially limiting that threat. Damaging wind potential may be limited by storm mode with a more substantial threat being dependent on upscale growth into clusters or a cold-pool-driven MCS. Tornado potential remains unclear as the models suggest the strongest low-level shear will remain displaced to the east of the primary instability axis. That being said, a conditional threat for a few tornadoes appears possible with: 1) storms forming near or to the south of the surface low, should modest low-level CAPE develop in the presence of locally enhanced vertical vorticity, and 2) any supercells that can form in the warm sector and move east into the stronger low-level shear forecast across eastern MO during the late afternoon into evening.

Given the above uncertainties, a level 1/Marginal Risk will be maintained with this forecast.

### Colorado and New Mexico

Initially northerly, post-frontal winds Friday morning are expected to switch to northeast and then east by afternoon into evening, supporting isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms along favored terrain. MLCAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg will coincide with 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear, suggesting the potential for at least transient supercell structures capable of large hail. With time, storms may grow upscale into clusters with a relatively deep, well-mixed boundary layer enhancing the potential for locally severe wind gusts. This is especially the case across parts of eastern NM Friday evening where the merging of the terrain-induced storms and cold-frontal storms could organize a more substantial cold pool.

..Mead.. 07/30/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Saturday, August 1

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290839 SPC AC 290839

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Saturday

A short-wave trough will progress from the mid MS into lower OH Valleys with modest height falls forecast across the Gulf Coast states. At the surface, an area of low pressure will follow the same track as the upper-air system, while a trailing cold front advances through the lower MS and TN Valleys. While weaker than on Friday, a modest enhancement of 850-mb winds is forecast during the afternoon ahead of the surface low over the OH and TN Valleys.

Morning storms appear possible from the lower OH into lower MS Valleys within a zone of warm advection associated with a nocturnal low-level jet. The longevity and extent of early-day storms remain uncertain, but where stronger heating can occur, the presence of boundary-layer dewpoints in the 70s will contribute to pockets of moderate instability. Additional storms are anticipated during the afternoon, focused along the cold front and any residual outflow boundaries from previous storms. Deep-layer shear is expected to remain generally less than 30 kt, which will tend to limit the potential for organized storm modes. A possible exception is across parts of KY and TN where slightly stronger low-level shear could contribute to updraft rotation and some tornado risk. Otherwise, locally damaging wind gusts appear to be the primary hazard.

Isolated severe storms capable of mainly damaging winds and hail appear possible over the southern High Plains Saturday afternoon and evening within a moist and unstable upslope regime.

### Days 5 and 6/Sunday and Monday

The models remain in relatively good agreement in depicting a strong short-wave trough and attending belt of mid-level flow progressing along the international border from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. Low-level ridging from the Great Lakes into southern Plains may disrupt the return of robust boundary-layer moisture ahead of a cold front moving through the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley. Nonetheless, the presence of steep lapse rates and strengthening vertical shear along the frontal zone will support some severe weather risk over the northern Plains on Sunday and the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley on Monday.

An isolated severe storm threat may also develop along the East Coast on Sunday, ahead of a positively tilted trough moving through the Great Lakes and OH and TN Valley.

### Days 7 and 8/Tuesday and Wednesday

The 00Z ensemble means indicate a belt of modestly enhanced mid-level flow from the northern Rockies into the Great Lakes, between a trough over Hudson Bay and a flattened ridge across the Southwest. Some severe weather threat may materialize over the central High Plains along and to the north of a stalled front, and perhaps in AZ if stronger easterly flow can develop on the south side of the upper high.

..Mead.. 07/29/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, August 2

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290839 SPC AC 290839

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Saturday

A short-wave trough will progress from the mid MS into lower OH Valleys with modest height falls forecast across the Gulf Coast states. At the surface, an area of low pressure will follow the same track as the upper-air system, while a trailing cold front advances through the lower MS and TN Valleys. While weaker than on Friday, a modest enhancement of 850-mb winds is forecast during the afternoon ahead of the surface low over the OH and TN Valleys.

Morning storms appear possible from the lower OH into lower MS Valleys within a zone of warm advection associated with a nocturnal low-level jet. The longevity and extent of early-day storms remain uncertain, but where stronger heating can occur, the presence of boundary-layer dewpoints in the 70s will contribute to pockets of moderate instability. Additional storms are anticipated during the afternoon, focused along the cold front and any residual outflow boundaries from previous storms. Deep-layer shear is expected to remain generally less than 30 kt, which will tend to limit the potential for organized storm modes. A possible exception is across parts of KY and TN where slightly stronger low-level shear could contribute to updraft rotation and some tornado risk. Otherwise, locally damaging wind gusts appear to be the primary hazard.

Isolated severe storms capable of mainly damaging winds and hail appear possible over the southern High Plains Saturday afternoon and evening within a moist and unstable upslope regime.

### Days 5 and 6/Sunday and Monday

The models remain in relatively good agreement in depicting a strong short-wave trough and attending belt of mid-level flow progressing along the international border from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. Low-level ridging from the Great Lakes into southern Plains may disrupt the return of robust boundary-layer moisture ahead of a cold front moving through the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley. Nonetheless, the presence of steep lapse rates and strengthening vertical shear along the frontal zone will support some severe weather risk over the northern Plains on Sunday and the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley on Monday.

An isolated severe storm threat may also develop along the East Coast on Sunday, ahead of a positively tilted trough moving through the Great Lakes and OH and TN Valley.

### Days 7 and 8/Tuesday and Wednesday

The 00Z ensemble means indicate a belt of modestly enhanced mid-level flow from the northern Rockies into the Great Lakes, between a trough over Hudson Bay and a flattened ridge across the Southwest. Some severe weather threat may materialize over the central High Plains along and to the north of a stalled front, and perhaps in AZ if stronger easterly flow can develop on the south side of the upper high.

..Mead.. 07/29/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, August 3

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290839 SPC AC 290839

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Saturday

A short-wave trough will progress from the mid MS into lower OH Valleys with modest height falls forecast across the Gulf Coast states. At the surface, an area of low pressure will follow the same track as the upper-air system, while a trailing cold front advances through the lower MS and TN Valleys. While weaker than on Friday, a modest enhancement of 850-mb winds is forecast during the afternoon ahead of the surface low over the OH and TN Valleys.

Morning storms appear possible from the lower OH into lower MS Valleys within a zone of warm advection associated with a nocturnal low-level jet. The longevity and extent of early-day storms remain uncertain, but where stronger heating can occur, the presence of boundary-layer dewpoints in the 70s will contribute to pockets of moderate instability. Additional storms are anticipated during the afternoon, focused along the cold front and any residual outflow boundaries from previous storms. Deep-layer shear is expected to remain generally less than 30 kt, which will tend to limit the potential for organized storm modes. A possible exception is across parts of KY and TN where slightly stronger low-level shear could contribute to updraft rotation and some tornado risk. Otherwise, locally damaging wind gusts appear to be the primary hazard.

Isolated severe storms capable of mainly damaging winds and hail appear possible over the southern High Plains Saturday afternoon and evening within a moist and unstable upslope regime.

### Days 5 and 6/Sunday and Monday

The models remain in relatively good agreement in depicting a strong short-wave trough and attending belt of mid-level flow progressing along the international border from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. Low-level ridging from the Great Lakes into southern Plains may disrupt the return of robust boundary-layer moisture ahead of a cold front moving through the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley. Nonetheless, the presence of steep lapse rates and strengthening vertical shear along the frontal zone will support some severe weather risk over the northern Plains on Sunday and the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley on Monday.

An isolated severe storm threat may also develop along the East Coast on Sunday, ahead of a positively tilted trough moving through the Great Lakes and OH and TN Valley.

### Days 7 and 8/Tuesday and Wednesday

The 00Z ensemble means indicate a belt of modestly enhanced mid-level flow from the northern Rockies into the Great Lakes, between a trough over Hudson Bay and a flattened ridge across the Southwest. Some severe weather threat may materialize over the central High Plains along and to the north of a stalled front, and perhaps in AZ if stronger easterly flow can develop on the south side of the upper high.

..Mead.. 07/29/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, August 4

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290839 SPC AC 290839

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Saturday

A short-wave trough will progress from the mid MS into lower OH Valleys with modest height falls forecast across the Gulf Coast states. At the surface, an area of low pressure will follow the same track as the upper-air system, while a trailing cold front advances through the lower MS and TN Valleys. While weaker than on Friday, a modest enhancement of 850-mb winds is forecast during the afternoon ahead of the surface low over the OH and TN Valleys.

Morning storms appear possible from the lower OH into lower MS Valleys within a zone of warm advection associated with a nocturnal low-level jet. The longevity and extent of early-day storms remain uncertain, but where stronger heating can occur, the presence of boundary-layer dewpoints in the 70s will contribute to pockets of moderate instability. Additional storms are anticipated during the afternoon, focused along the cold front and any residual outflow boundaries from previous storms. Deep-layer shear is expected to remain generally less than 30 kt, which will tend to limit the potential for organized storm modes. A possible exception is across parts of KY and TN where slightly stronger low-level shear could contribute to updraft rotation and some tornado risk. Otherwise, locally damaging wind gusts appear to be the primary hazard.

Isolated severe storms capable of mainly damaging winds and hail appear possible over the southern High Plains Saturday afternoon and evening within a moist and unstable upslope regime.

### Days 5 and 6/Sunday and Monday

The models remain in relatively good agreement in depicting a strong short-wave trough and attending belt of mid-level flow progressing along the international border from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. Low-level ridging from the Great Lakes into southern Plains may disrupt the return of robust boundary-layer moisture ahead of a cold front moving through the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley. Nonetheless, the presence of steep lapse rates and strengthening vertical shear along the frontal zone will support some severe weather risk over the northern Plains on Sunday and the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley on Monday.

An isolated severe storm threat may also develop along the East Coast on Sunday, ahead of a positively tilted trough moving through the Great Lakes and OH and TN Valley.

### Days 7 and 8/Tuesday and Wednesday

The 00Z ensemble means indicate a belt of modestly enhanced mid-level flow from the northern Rockies into the Great Lakes, between a trough over Hudson Bay and a flattened ridge across the Southwest. Some severe weather threat may materialize over the central High Plains along and to the north of a stalled front, and perhaps in AZ if stronger easterly flow can develop on the south side of the upper high.

..Mead.. 07/29/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

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Outlook for Wednesday, August 5

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290839 SPC AC 290839

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Saturday

A short-wave trough will progress from the mid MS into lower OH Valleys with modest height falls forecast across the Gulf Coast states. At the surface, an area of low pressure will follow the same track as the upper-air system, while a trailing cold front advances through the lower MS and TN Valleys. While weaker than on Friday, a modest enhancement of 850-mb winds is forecast during the afternoon ahead of the surface low over the OH and TN Valleys.

Morning storms appear possible from the lower OH into lower MS Valleys within a zone of warm advection associated with a nocturnal low-level jet. The longevity and extent of early-day storms remain uncertain, but where stronger heating can occur, the presence of boundary-layer dewpoints in the 70s will contribute to pockets of moderate instability. Additional storms are anticipated during the afternoon, focused along the cold front and any residual outflow boundaries from previous storms. Deep-layer shear is expected to remain generally less than 30 kt, which will tend to limit the potential for organized storm modes. A possible exception is across parts of KY and TN where slightly stronger low-level shear could contribute to updraft rotation and some tornado risk. Otherwise, locally damaging wind gusts appear to be the primary hazard.

Isolated severe storms capable of mainly damaging winds and hail appear possible over the southern High Plains Saturday afternoon and evening within a moist and unstable upslope regime.

### Days 5 and 6/Sunday and Monday

The models remain in relatively good agreement in depicting a strong short-wave trough and attending belt of mid-level flow progressing along the international border from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. Low-level ridging from the Great Lakes into southern Plains may disrupt the return of robust boundary-layer moisture ahead of a cold front moving through the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley. Nonetheless, the presence of steep lapse rates and strengthening vertical shear along the frontal zone will support some severe weather risk over the northern Plains on Sunday and the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley on Monday.

An isolated severe storm threat may also develop along the East Coast on Sunday, ahead of a positively tilted trough moving through the Great Lakes and OH and TN Valley.

### Days 7 and 8/Tuesday and Wednesday

The 00Z ensemble means indicate a belt of modestly enhanced mid-level flow from the northern Rockies into the Great Lakes, between a trough over Hudson Bay and a flattened ridge across the Southwest. Some severe weather threat may materialize over the central High Plains along and to the north of a stalled front, and perhaps in AZ if stronger easterly flow can develop on the south side of the upper high.

..Mead.. 07/29/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

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National Risk Overview

Thursday, July 30

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 15%

Friday, July 31

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 5%

Saturday, August 1

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Sunday, August 2

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Monday, August 3

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Tuesday, August 4

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Wednesday, August 5

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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