Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, October 2
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorm potential should remain low through tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 021954
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Fri Oct 02 2026
Valid 022000Z - 031200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorm potential should remain low through tonight.
20z Update
No changes are needed to the previous outlook. See the discussion below for more details.
..Karstens/Thornton.. 10/02/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Fri Oct 02 2026/
Synopsis and Discussion
An upper trough will continue progressing eastward across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic today, as a surface cold front advances east-southeastward over these regions and the Southeast/southern Plains through the period. 12Z observed soundings ahead of the front from the Mid-Atlantic to Southeast show very poor lapse rates aloft (i.e., 700-500 mb lapse rates of 4-5.5 C/km), which will likely limit the development of any more than weak instability and hinder overall updraft strength. While locally gusty winds could still occur with low-topped showers/thunderstorms across the Mid-Atlantic given the presence of modestly enhanced low/mid-level west-southwesterly flow, the potential for organized clusters capable of producing severe/damaging winds still appears low. Weaker flow across the TN Valley and central Gulf Coast states will limit updraft organization, but marginally greater instability should support isolated to scattered thunderstorm coverage through the afternoon along/ahead of the cold front.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Saturday, October 3
Outlook Summary
No severe thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. on Saturday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 021724
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Fri Oct 02 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
No severe thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. on Saturday.
Synopsis
A midlevel trough now over WA will progress eastward across the upper MS Valley tomorrow, accompanied by a surface cold front. Conditionally unstable midlevel lapse rates, in combination with sufficient midlevel moistening in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough, will support the potential for elevated thunderstorms across the upper MS Valley. Elsewhere, a slow-moving front will extend from the Carolinas to the northwest Gulf and provide a focus for thunderstorm development. Severe storms are not expected as a result of deep, moist profiles and weak vertical shear.
..Thompson.. 10/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Sunday, October 4
Outlook Summary
Severe storms are not forecast for Sunday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 021924
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Fri Oct 02 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe storms are not forecast for Sunday.
Synopsis
A deep midlevel trough will move from the Great Lakes to New England, as upstream ridging persists from the Four Corners into the Great Basin. A previously stalled front will be reinforced and will begin to move southeastward across the southern states, in the wake of the Great Lakes midlevel trough. A moisture plume will persist along and ahead of the front, with sufficient buoyancy for embedded thunderstorms along and ahead of the front, in an environment with weak vertical shear. Elsewhere, isolated/diurnal convection with a few lightning flashes will be possible over the high terrain of southwest CO. Farther west, a weak midlevel trough over the eastern Pacific will approach northern CA/OR by late Sunday. There is low potential for enough moistening/ascent to support isolated lightning flashes. However, the threat appears sufficiently low to preclude adding a thunderstorm area for CA/OR in this update.
..Thompson.. 10/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Monday, October 5
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, October 5 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, October 6 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, October 7 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, October 8 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, October 9 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020817 SPC AC 020817
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 AM CDT Fri Oct 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe storm potential from Monday/D4 to Friday/D8 is forecast to be minimal.
A deep upper trough will move across eastern Canada and the northeastern USA Mon/D4 into Tue/D5, with a cold front already offshore and high pressure building in from the west. Behind the ejecting upper trough, moderate northwest flow aloft will persist across the northern tier of states, with some trough amplification possible over the Great Lakes Wed/D6 into Fri/D8. That said, a minimally unstable air mass will exist over most of the CONUS, with little severe thunderstorm potential. A few stronger storms cannot be ruled out around Thu/D7 over the upper Midwest beneath the northwest flow regime, but this low-predictability scenario will depend heavily on enough moisture returning to the region. As such, no areas are currently forecast.
..Jewell.. 10/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, October 6
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, October 5 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, October 6 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, October 7 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, October 8 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, October 9 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020817 SPC AC 020817
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 AM CDT Fri Oct 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe storm potential from Monday/D4 to Friday/D8 is forecast to be minimal.
A deep upper trough will move across eastern Canada and the northeastern USA Mon/D4 into Tue/D5, with a cold front already offshore and high pressure building in from the west. Behind the ejecting upper trough, moderate northwest flow aloft will persist across the northern tier of states, with some trough amplification possible over the Great Lakes Wed/D6 into Fri/D8. That said, a minimally unstable air mass will exist over most of the CONUS, with little severe thunderstorm potential. A few stronger storms cannot be ruled out around Thu/D7 over the upper Midwest beneath the northwest flow regime, but this low-predictability scenario will depend heavily on enough moisture returning to the region. As such, no areas are currently forecast.
..Jewell.. 10/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, October 7
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, October 5 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, October 6 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, October 7 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, October 8 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, October 9 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020817 SPC AC 020817
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 AM CDT Fri Oct 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe storm potential from Monday/D4 to Friday/D8 is forecast to be minimal.
A deep upper trough will move across eastern Canada and the northeastern USA Mon/D4 into Tue/D5, with a cold front already offshore and high pressure building in from the west. Behind the ejecting upper trough, moderate northwest flow aloft will persist across the northern tier of states, with some trough amplification possible over the Great Lakes Wed/D6 into Fri/D8. That said, a minimally unstable air mass will exist over most of the CONUS, with little severe thunderstorm potential. A few stronger storms cannot be ruled out around Thu/D7 over the upper Midwest beneath the northwest flow regime, but this low-predictability scenario will depend heavily on enough moisture returning to the region. As such, no areas are currently forecast.
..Jewell.. 10/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, October 8
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, October 5 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, October 6 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, October 7 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, October 8 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, October 9 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020817 SPC AC 020817
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 AM CDT Fri Oct 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe storm potential from Monday/D4 to Friday/D8 is forecast to be minimal.
A deep upper trough will move across eastern Canada and the northeastern USA Mon/D4 into Tue/D5, with a cold front already offshore and high pressure building in from the west. Behind the ejecting upper trough, moderate northwest flow aloft will persist across the northern tier of states, with some trough amplification possible over the Great Lakes Wed/D6 into Fri/D8. That said, a minimally unstable air mass will exist over most of the CONUS, with little severe thunderstorm potential. A few stronger storms cannot be ruled out around Thu/D7 over the upper Midwest beneath the northwest flow regime, but this low-predictability scenario will depend heavily on enough moisture returning to the region. As such, no areas are currently forecast.
..Jewell.. 10/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, October 9
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, October 5 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, October 6 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, October 7 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, October 8 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, October 9 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020817 SPC AC 020817
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 AM CDT Fri Oct 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe storm potential from Monday/D4 to Friday/D8 is forecast to be minimal.
A deep upper trough will move across eastern Canada and the northeastern USA Mon/D4 into Tue/D5, with a cold front already offshore and high pressure building in from the west. Behind the ejecting upper trough, moderate northwest flow aloft will persist across the northern tier of states, with some trough amplification possible over the Great Lakes Wed/D6 into Fri/D8. That said, a minimally unstable air mass will exist over most of the CONUS, with little severe thunderstorm potential. A few stronger storms cannot be ruled out around Thu/D7 over the upper Midwest beneath the northwest flow regime, but this low-predictability scenario will depend heavily on enough moisture returning to the region. As such, no areas are currently forecast.
..Jewell.. 10/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, October 2
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Saturday, October 3
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Sunday, October 4
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Monday, October 5
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, October 6
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, October 7
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, October 8
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, October 9
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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