Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Wednesday, July 15

Outlook Summary

There is a conditional risk for severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging winds across parts of the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon and evening. Isolated damaging winds appear possible for portions of northern New England, the northern Rockies/High Plains, Pacific Northwest, and Arizona. A brief tornado or two may also occur across parts of south-central Texas.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 151200

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Valid 151300Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC…NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND…NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS…PACIFIC NORTHWEST…ARIZONA…AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS

### SUMMARY

There is a conditional risk for severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging winds across parts of the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon and evening. Isolated damaging winds appear possible for portions of northern New England, the northern Rockies/High Plains, Pacific Northwest, and Arizona. A brief tornado or two may also occur across parts of south-central Texas.

Mid-Atlantic

Hot temperatures are forecast south of a front that will be draped across southern New England into the northern Mid-Atlantic by peak afternoon heating. Coupled with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s, this will contribute to a moderately unstable airmass, with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg probable. The strongest mid-level height falls/forcing for ascent associated with a shortwave trough over Ontario/Quebec into New England are expected to remain generally north of the surface front. Therefore, robust convective development along/south of the boundary in the northern Mid-Atlantic remains highly uncertain. Another factor that could limit thunderstorm initiation is the potential for more muted instability across the warm sector due to smoke from upstream wildfires.

With continued uncertainty regarding initiation, have maintained the Marginal Risk across the Mid-Atlantic with no changes. However, on the condition that surface-based thunderstorms develop, the presence of seasonably strong mid-level winds and resultant 40-50+ kt of effective bulk shear would support supercells/multicells capable of both severe hail and damaging winds.

Northern New England

Within the zone of strongest forcing for ascent associated with a mid-level shortwave trough moving quickly eastward from southern Ontario/Quebec into New England today, a band of low-topped showers and thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon in a weakly unstable environment. Steepening low-level lapse rates, a unidirectional/westerly wind profile with height through mid levels, and 30-40 kt of flow around 1-2 km AGL will support the potential for locally damaging wind gusts, assuming convection develops and can become surface based.

Northern Wyoming into Southern Montana

A weak/embedded mid-level vorticity maximum evident on water vapor satellite imagery over the northern Great Basin this morning will move northeastward today across the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Diurnal heating across the higher terrain coupled with the glancing influence of this subtle disturbance should foster the development of scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Weak to moderate instability is forecast, with a relatively deep and well-mixed boundary layer across lower elevations. Recent guidance continues to show some potential for upscale growth into a loosely organized cluster with cold pool organization and a risk for isolated severe wind gusts into the evening. However, the overall severe threat should be tempered by modest deep-layer shear.

Pacific Northwest

Isolated to scatted thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along and east of the Cascades from central OR into southern WA. This convection will be aided by orogrpahic influences and modest large-scale ascent preceding a closed upper low off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. Recent NAM/RAP forecast soundings show a deeply mixed boundary layer developing across this region through peak afternoon heating, with weak MLCAPE present. Enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow should support sufficient deep-layer shear for some updraft organization, and isolated severe gusts may occur with the stronger cores as they spread north-northeastward through the evening.

Arizona

Weak east-northeasterly mid-level flow is forecast today across AZ on the southern periphery of upper ridging extending across much of the central CONUS. Daytime heating of a seasonably moist low-level airmass across southern/central AZ will yield weak to moderate instability by mid afternoon with a very well-mixed boundary layer. This environment should support isolated strong to severe gusts as convection initially develops over the Mogollon Rim and higher terrain of southeast AZ, before subsequently spreading westward into the lower deserts. However, a more organized severe wind threat will likely be limited by weak deep-layer shear.

South-Central Texas

A weak mid-level low over southwest TX this morning should make only slow westward progress through the period across the southern High Plains. Modest winds at low levels veer to southwesterly with height at mid levels per recent VWPs from KDFX/KEWX. Up to 100 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH may be sufficient for some low-level rotation and perhaps a brief tornado or two with ongoing convection given a very moist low-level airmass. This threat may continue through the day as the boundary layer gradually destabilizes with filtered daytime heating.

..Gleason.. 07/15/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

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Outlook for Thursday, July 16

Outlook Summary

Strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of western Montana Thursday afternoon and evening.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 150558

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN MONTANA

### SUMMARY

Strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of western Montana Thursday afternoon and evening.

Synopsis

An expansive mid-level ridge will remain in place across much of the CONUS on Thursday. On the western side of the ridge, a closed mid-level low will lift northward, helping to raise mid-level heights northward into Canada. On the eastern side of the ridge, a strong mid-level trough will move across New England, within the basal region of a long-wave trough centered across northern Quebec and extending southward along the east coast of North America.

At the surface, a frontal boundary across the northern Mid-Atlantic region will delineate a moist airmass to the south from a slightly less moist airmass to the north. A secondary front will push south across New England associated with the passing mid-level wave. This secondary front will bring a reinforcing shot of seasonably cool, dry air.

### Western Montana

This area will be on the eastern periphery of a zone of large-scale ascent associated with the lifting eastern Pacific mid-level low. This large-scale ascent will combine with surface dewpoints in the mid 50Fs and surface temperatures in the upper-80Fs to low-90Fs to support scattered thunderstorm development in the afternoon. Relatively long hodographs and MUCAPE between 1000-2000 J/kg will support a marginal threat for large hail and gusty thunderstorm outflows. Should the number of thunderstorms be greater than currently anticipated, higher severe probabilities may become necessary.

### Mid-Atlantic Region

This evening's (20260715 00UTC) HREF shows afternoon temperatures riding to near 100F in the presence of surface dewpoints in the mid-to-upper 60Fs. This combination results in ensemble mean MLCAPE between 1500-2000 J/kg. As the aforementioned surface boundary moves south during the afternoon and evening, isolated thunderstorms may develop along the front. Steep low-level lapse rates would support some wind damage potential should these storms develop.

However, the 20260715 00UTC HRRR vertically integrated smoke forecasts show a dense ribbon of smoke stretching from the Upper Midwest southeast into the Mid Atlantic. Should this ribbon of dense smoke materialize, afternoon high temperatures would likely be lower than expected, and low- and mid-level lapse rates weaker than forecast. This in turn would lower atmospheric buoyancy and may limit thunderstorm coverage and/or intensity.

Given the already marginal nature of the severe potential absent the presence of smoke, the uncertainty introduced by the presence of smoke results in too much uncertainty to introduce unconditional severe probabilities at this time. This area will continued to be re-evaluated with subsequent forecasts.

..Marsh.. 07/15/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Friday, July 17

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms will be possible across much of the country on Friday. Although a few strong storms may occur, areas of organized severe weather are not currently forecast.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 150730

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms will be possible across much of the country on Friday. Although a few strong storms may occur, areas of organized severe weather are not currently forecast.

Synopsis

Enhanced mid-level flow will persist across the Pacific Northwest and the Great Lakes/Northeast US along the periphery of a large mid-level anticyclone centered across the central US. Across the Northwest, strong southwesterly mid-level flow and embedded vorticity/speed maxima will contribute to shower and thunderstorm development during Friday afternoon and evening. Farther east, northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across the Upper Midwest into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast regions. A strong trough will be departing the Northeast at the start of the forecast period, and several smaller mid-level waves will be traversing the enhanced mid-level flow during the day. A stronger mid-level wave is forecast to approach the Upper Great Lakes overnight Friday into Saturday.

At the surface, a residual synoptic boundary will stretch from the Upper Peninsula of Michigan southeast toward the vicinity of Washington D.C. early on Friday. By late morning, this boundary will begin lifting northeast across the Great Lakes region in response to the approaching mid-level trough. Farther southeast, this boundary will still be slowly sagging southward during the morning before stalling during the afternoon and quickly lifting northeast during Friday night into Saturday morning.

A weak surface low will develop along this boundary across northern Minnesota by Friday morning. This low will slowly move east-southeast during the day, dragging a secondary cold front southeast across the Dakotas and into Wisconsin/southern Minnesota by Saturday morning.

### Upper Midwest southeast into the Mid-Atlantic

Subtle/small vorticity maxima moving through the mid-level flow will yield modest large-scale ascent along portions of the frontal boundary. Strong diurnal heating of the moist airmass along and south of the boundary should support at least widely scattered thunderstorms. The surface boundary will be on the southwest fringe of the better mid-level flow, with effective-layer shear being generally less than 30 knots. This should limit any sustained/organized severe threat.

One complicating factor/unknown will be the extent smoke plumes from northern Minnesota are advected into/across the region and their density. A thicker smoke plume may limit the degree of surface heating and impact the overall number of thunderstorms.

There is a secondary potential for thunderstorms to develop along the secondary cold front late Friday into early Saturday as stronger large-scale ascent overspreads the Upper Great Lakes. The uncertainty as to whether this convection will be able to produce severe weather is quite large owing to the impacts of both smoke plumes and the cooler waters of Lake Superior.

At this time the uncertainty associated with afternoon convection and the overnight convection is too great to introduce unconditional severe weather probabilities with this outlook, however, this region will be evaluated further with subsequent forecasts.

..Marsh.. 07/15/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Saturday, July 18

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150859 SPC AC 150859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

DISCUSSION

The mid-level pattern will continue to transition toward a western US ridge and eastern Canada trough during this forecast period. The strongest mid-level flow across the US will be in the region between the ridge and trough, namely the Upper Midwest into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.

Ensemble guidance suites continue to indicate several stronger mid-level short-wave troughs moving through the longwave trough across eastern North America. In particular, one such trough will move across the Great Lakes and Northeast on Saturday into Sunday, with a secondary wave moving across the same general area late Monday into early Wednesday. In between these main waves, smaller-scale vorticity/speed maxima are likely to traverse the region.

Prior cyclones moving across the region will have left behind a surface boundary arcing from the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic. As each of the previously mentioned waves approaches this boundary, the surface boundary will lift northward before being pushed farther southward in the wake of the departing wave. By the end of the forecast period, this boundary may push as far south as the Southeast US.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will be possible with each passing wave, with more isolated potential in between the main waves in association with any of the small/subtle vorticity/speed maxima moving through the flow. The best areas for thunderstorms look to be south of the better mid-level flow, which would tend to favor any severe potential being driven by the degree of low-level warming/steepening of the low-level lapse rates. At this time it appears that the timing of the midlevel waves may favor early day convection, especially across the Lower Great Lakes into the northern Mid-Atlantic area. This early day convection may temper afternoon heating and the overall organization/areal extent of any severe potential. Thus, confidence remains too low to introduce unconditional 15% severe weather probabilities at this time, despite the acknowledgment that some severe potential is likely during this time period.

..Marsh.. 07/15/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, July 19

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150859 SPC AC 150859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

DISCUSSION

The mid-level pattern will continue to transition toward a western US ridge and eastern Canada trough during this forecast period. The strongest mid-level flow across the US will be in the region between the ridge and trough, namely the Upper Midwest into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.

Ensemble guidance suites continue to indicate several stronger mid-level short-wave troughs moving through the longwave trough across eastern North America. In particular, one such trough will move across the Great Lakes and Northeast on Saturday into Sunday, with a secondary wave moving across the same general area late Monday into early Wednesday. In between these main waves, smaller-scale vorticity/speed maxima are likely to traverse the region.

Prior cyclones moving across the region will have left behind a surface boundary arcing from the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic. As each of the previously mentioned waves approaches this boundary, the surface boundary will lift northward before being pushed farther southward in the wake of the departing wave. By the end of the forecast period, this boundary may push as far south as the Southeast US.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will be possible with each passing wave, with more isolated potential in between the main waves in association with any of the small/subtle vorticity/speed maxima moving through the flow. The best areas for thunderstorms look to be south of the better mid-level flow, which would tend to favor any severe potential being driven by the degree of low-level warming/steepening of the low-level lapse rates. At this time it appears that the timing of the midlevel waves may favor early day convection, especially across the Lower Great Lakes into the northern Mid-Atlantic area. This early day convection may temper afternoon heating and the overall organization/areal extent of any severe potential. Thus, confidence remains too low to introduce unconditional 15% severe weather probabilities at this time, despite the acknowledgment that some severe potential is likely during this time period.

..Marsh.. 07/15/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, July 20

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150859 SPC AC 150859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

DISCUSSION

The mid-level pattern will continue to transition toward a western US ridge and eastern Canada trough during this forecast period. The strongest mid-level flow across the US will be in the region between the ridge and trough, namely the Upper Midwest into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.

Ensemble guidance suites continue to indicate several stronger mid-level short-wave troughs moving through the longwave trough across eastern North America. In particular, one such trough will move across the Great Lakes and Northeast on Saturday into Sunday, with a secondary wave moving across the same general area late Monday into early Wednesday. In between these main waves, smaller-scale vorticity/speed maxima are likely to traverse the region.

Prior cyclones moving across the region will have left behind a surface boundary arcing from the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic. As each of the previously mentioned waves approaches this boundary, the surface boundary will lift northward before being pushed farther southward in the wake of the departing wave. By the end of the forecast period, this boundary may push as far south as the Southeast US.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will be possible with each passing wave, with more isolated potential in between the main waves in association with any of the small/subtle vorticity/speed maxima moving through the flow. The best areas for thunderstorms look to be south of the better mid-level flow, which would tend to favor any severe potential being driven by the degree of low-level warming/steepening of the low-level lapse rates. At this time it appears that the timing of the midlevel waves may favor early day convection, especially across the Lower Great Lakes into the northern Mid-Atlantic area. This early day convection may temper afternoon heating and the overall organization/areal extent of any severe potential. Thus, confidence remains too low to introduce unconditional 15% severe weather probabilities at this time, despite the acknowledgment that some severe potential is likely during this time period.

..Marsh.. 07/15/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, July 21

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150859 SPC AC 150859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

DISCUSSION

The mid-level pattern will continue to transition toward a western US ridge and eastern Canada trough during this forecast period. The strongest mid-level flow across the US will be in the region between the ridge and trough, namely the Upper Midwest into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.

Ensemble guidance suites continue to indicate several stronger mid-level short-wave troughs moving through the longwave trough across eastern North America. In particular, one such trough will move across the Great Lakes and Northeast on Saturday into Sunday, with a secondary wave moving across the same general area late Monday into early Wednesday. In between these main waves, smaller-scale vorticity/speed maxima are likely to traverse the region.

Prior cyclones moving across the region will have left behind a surface boundary arcing from the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic. As each of the previously mentioned waves approaches this boundary, the surface boundary will lift northward before being pushed farther southward in the wake of the departing wave. By the end of the forecast period, this boundary may push as far south as the Southeast US.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will be possible with each passing wave, with more isolated potential in between the main waves in association with any of the small/subtle vorticity/speed maxima moving through the flow. The best areas for thunderstorms look to be south of the better mid-level flow, which would tend to favor any severe potential being driven by the degree of low-level warming/steepening of the low-level lapse rates. At this time it appears that the timing of the midlevel waves may favor early day convection, especially across the Lower Great Lakes into the northern Mid-Atlantic area. This early day convection may temper afternoon heating and the overall organization/areal extent of any severe potential. Thus, confidence remains too low to introduce unconditional 15% severe weather probabilities at this time, despite the acknowledgment that some severe potential is likely during this time period.

..Marsh.. 07/15/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, July 22

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150859 SPC AC 150859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

DISCUSSION

The mid-level pattern will continue to transition toward a western US ridge and eastern Canada trough during this forecast period. The strongest mid-level flow across the US will be in the region between the ridge and trough, namely the Upper Midwest into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.

Ensemble guidance suites continue to indicate several stronger mid-level short-wave troughs moving through the longwave trough across eastern North America. In particular, one such trough will move across the Great Lakes and Northeast on Saturday into Sunday, with a secondary wave moving across the same general area late Monday into early Wednesday. In between these main waves, smaller-scale vorticity/speed maxima are likely to traverse the region.

Prior cyclones moving across the region will have left behind a surface boundary arcing from the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic. As each of the previously mentioned waves approaches this boundary, the surface boundary will lift northward before being pushed farther southward in the wake of the departing wave. By the end of the forecast period, this boundary may push as far south as the Southeast US.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will be possible with each passing wave, with more isolated potential in between the main waves in association with any of the small/subtle vorticity/speed maxima moving through the flow. The best areas for thunderstorms look to be south of the better mid-level flow, which would tend to favor any severe potential being driven by the degree of low-level warming/steepening of the low-level lapse rates. At this time it appears that the timing of the midlevel waves may favor early day convection, especially across the Lower Great Lakes into the northern Mid-Atlantic area. This early day convection may temper afternoon heating and the overall organization/areal extent of any severe potential. Thus, confidence remains too low to introduce unconditional 15% severe weather probabilities at this time, despite the acknowledgment that some severe potential is likely during this time period.

..Marsh.. 07/15/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Wednesday, July 15

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 5%

Thursday, July 16

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 5%

Friday, July 17

ANY SEVERE: low

Saturday, July 18

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Sunday, July 19

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Monday, July 20

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Tuesday, July 21

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Wednesday, July 22

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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