Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, August 12
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today through this evening from parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio Valley into portions of the central and northern High Plains. Severe gusts and large hail are the primary hazards.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 30%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 121236
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026
Valid 121300Z - 131200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today through this evening from parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio Valley into portions of the central and northern High Plains. Severe gusts and large hail are the primary hazards.
IA to OH Valley
Radar/satellite imagery this morning show several thunderstorm clusters ongoing from IA into the OH Valley. The most notable thunderstorm cluster is over far eastern IA and is moving into central and northern IL this morning. The airmass downstream of this activity is very moist and extremely unstable [reference the 12 UTC Davenport, IA raob (4300 J/kg MLCAPE)], and it is located near the terminus of a 35-kt west-southwesterly LLJ over northern MO. Expecting a gradual intensification of storms this morning across IL with a risk for scattered severe gusts and associated wind damage. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the eventual evolution of additional storm clusters over parts of the Midwest through this afternoon. Outflow from morning showers/storms over eastern IN into central KY will likely inhibit appreciable severe risk farther east across parts of the OH Valley. Nonetheless, a moist and destabilizing boundary layer will lend a risk for scattered wind damage and isolated large hail with the stronger storms through the late afternoon and evening.
Northern/Central Plains
East/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain modest moisture across the Dakotas, increasing with southward extent across NE into northern KS. Near-60 F dewpoints will likely spread westward into eastern CO/WY/MT beneath steep lapse rates. Ample heating will result in moderate buoyancy and 30+ kt effective shear—supporting some organization to the scattered thunderstorms forecast to develop later this afternoon/evening. Initial cells will pose a threat for large hail and severe gusts. Some clustering may occur during the evening but confidence remains low regarding specific corridors where the severe threat will focus.
Lower MI into NY/PA/NJ
A belt of stronger northwesterly flow aloft will extend from Lower MI into NY/PA today. A seasonally moist/unstable airmass will be in place. Vertically veering wind profiles will foster 35+ kt effective shear magnitudes, while hodographs are fairly elongated. Midlevel lapse rates will remain modest, with MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg expected. Isolated to widely scattered storms will pose a risk for damaging gusts and marginally severe hail.
TN Valley/Southeast
Thunderstorms are expected to develop by midday within a very moist and strongly unstable airmass. Deep-layer northwesterly flow will remain weak, but steepened 0-2 km lapse rates and high PW (near 2 inches) will support an isolated risk for some stronger water-loaded downdrafts capable of wind damage.
Lower CO River Valley
Model guidance shows widely scattered storms developing this afternoon near a weak upper trough analyzed this morning via water-vapor imagery. Some of the stronger thunderstorm downdrafts may be capable of isolated severe gusts.
..Smith/Kerr.. 08/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Thursday, August 13
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday from the Colorado Front Range and central High Plains into the Ohio Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 120600
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday from the Colorado Front Range and central High Plains into the Ohio Valley.
Synopsis
Some amplification of the upper-level pattern is expected on Thursday across the central/eastern CONUS. An upper ridge initially over the lower MS Valley is forecast to expand and build northward into parts of the Great Plains. To the east of building ridge, a seasonably strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward across the Great Lakes towards the Northeast. A surface low is forecast to remain in place across the south-central Plains. A nearly stationary front is forecast to extend east-northeast of the low toward the lower MO Valley, and then east-southeastward toward the lower OH Valley.
Central Plains into parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley
Isolated severe potential remains evident in the vicinity of the surface front on Thursday, though confidence in the details remains low. Elevated convection and possibly a remnant MCS may be ongoing at the start of the period from eastern NE into parts of IA/northern MO. Depending on the extent to which the early-day convection can propagate within the rich moisture and moderate to strong buoyancy along the frontal zone, some severe threat could spread east-southeastward toward the lower OH Valley through the day.
Otherwise, isolated storms may develop near/north of the front through the day, with an increase in coverage expected Thursday evening within a warm-advection regime. Generally modest and front-parallel mid/upper-level flow may lead to training storms and a tendency for convection to be undercut or generally remain somewhat elevated. However, deep-layer shear will still be modestly supportive of organized convection within the moist and unstable environment, with some potential for isolated damaging gusts and hail.
CO Front Range into the adjacent High Plains
To the north/northwest of the primary surface low, moist easterly low-level flow will support moderate to locally strong destabilization from the CO Front Range into parts of the central High Plains. Deep-layer flow will generally remain modest, but veering wind profiles will provide sufficient effective shear for some storm organization. Isolated hail and locally severe gusts will be possible with the strongest storms in this region. Isolated to widely scattered storms will also be possible within the hot and well-mixed regime near/south of the front and surface low. Weak deep-layer shear should limit storm organization in this regime, but steep low-level lapse rates could support localized severe gusts.
Northeast
Seasonably strong mid/upper-level flow will overspread the Northeast on Thursday. However, low-level flow will remain rather weak, and generally modest moisture and lapse rates will limit destabilization. MLCAPE Of 500-1000 J/kg will support development of widely scattered thunderstorms across northern New England. There will be some displacement between the strongest deep-layer flow and more favorable buoyancy. Small hail and gusty winds could accompany the strongest storms, but confidence in sufficient destabilization remains too low for severe probabilities at this time.
Southeast
Thunderstorm development is expected across parts of AL/GA/SC on Thursday, within a very warm and moist environment. Guidance varies regarding the extent to which early-day convection and related outflow move into the region from the north, and the influence any such convection/outflow would have on storm development and evolution later in the day. In general, deep-layer flow/shear will be weak, but the very warm and moist environment could support localized downburst potential. Confidence in an organized severe threat is currently low, but if trends support the presence of any outflow boundaries or remnant MCVs emanating from upstream, then wind probabilities may eventually be needed for some part of this region.
Great Basin
Storm development is again expected across parts of the Great Basin on Thursday afternoon, with coverage potentially aided by a midlevel trough approaching the region from central/southern CA. Deep-layer shear will remain modest at best, but favorable lapse rates and cooling temperatures aloft could support relatively vigorous updrafts with potential for localized strong to severe gusts. Uncertainty remains regarding the organization of any severe threat, but wind probabilities may eventually be needed for this area as well.
..Dean.. 08/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Friday, August 14
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from the central High Plains into parts of the Midwest.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 120737
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CO FRONT RANGE AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from the central High Plains into parts of the Midwest.
Synopsis
A broad upper trough will remain in place across the West on Friday, while an upper ridge will continue to gradually build from the lower MS Valley into the Midwest. A seasonably deep mid/upper trough will remain in place over the Northeast. A broad surface low is expected to remain in place over the south-central High Plains. A frontal zone that initially extends generally eastward from the low toward the Midwest and Ohio Valley may tend to lift northward by later in the period, though its position will continue to be influenced by antecedent and ongoing convection.
Midwest/Ohio Valley
Storms may be ongoing Friday morning across parts of the Midwest. This convection will likely be elevated to the north of the frontal zone, but moderate to strong MUCAPE and sufficient deep-layer shear could support an isolated severe threat with the strongest early-day storms.
Evolution of the front and additional storm development later in the day remains quite uncertain. The environment may remain capped along and to the warm side of the front, but additional elevated convection may develop during the evening, within a modest warm-advection regime. While deep-layer shear and lapse rates will likely be weaker compared to previous days, substantial buoyancy near/north of the frontal zone could still support potential for isolated hail and damaging winds.
CO Front Range into the High Plains
Similar to D2/Thursday, moist low-level easterly flow to the north of the surface low and front will support moderate destabilization across parts of the CO Front Range and adjacent High Plains. Modest lapse rates and only marginally favorable deep-layer shear should limit a more organized threat, but cells capable of isolated hail and localized severe gusts will be possible by late afternoon, with some modest outflow-driven clustering possible. Farther south, high-based convection may develop across the south-central High Plains and pose localized downburst potential.
Carolinas/VA
Modest midlevel northwesterly flow will overspread parts of the Carolinas and Virginia on Friday, though guidance varies considerably regarding the magnitude of diurnal destabilization across this region. Somewhat organized wind-damage potential could evolve if sufficient destabilization occurs, but confidence is too low for probabilities at this time.
..Dean.. 08/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Saturday, August 15
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, August 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, August 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, August 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, August 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, August 19 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120835 SPC AC 120835
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Saturday
Most guidance depicts one or more midlevel vorticity maxima cresting the upper ridge and moving across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region on Saturday. However, there is considerable spread regarding the timing of these features and the northward extent of substantial destabilization. The general pattern suggests some potential for MCS development across parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes region, but uncertainty regarding the favored corridor precludes addition of 15% probabilities at this time.
D5/Sunday
Extended-range guidance is in general agreement depicting a cold front that will move across parts of the Midwest, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast on Sunday. This front will impinge upon a reservoir of rich moisture and moderate to locally strong buoyancy, which could result in a severe-thunderstorm threat along/ahead of the front. Substantial timing differences remain regarding the front, but severe probabilities may eventually be needed for this scenario.
D6/Monday - D7/Tuesday
A similar upper-level pattern is expected to persist into early next week, with west-northwesterly midlevel flow extending from the northern Plains into the Midwest/Great Lakes and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic. This pattern will continue to favor at least an isolated severe threat, with low-predictability MCS potential.
..Dean.. 08/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, August 16
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, August 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, August 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, August 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, August 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, August 19 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120835 SPC AC 120835
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Saturday
Most guidance depicts one or more midlevel vorticity maxima cresting the upper ridge and moving across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region on Saturday. However, there is considerable spread regarding the timing of these features and the northward extent of substantial destabilization. The general pattern suggests some potential for MCS development across parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes region, but uncertainty regarding the favored corridor precludes addition of 15% probabilities at this time.
D5/Sunday
Extended-range guidance is in general agreement depicting a cold front that will move across parts of the Midwest, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast on Sunday. This front will impinge upon a reservoir of rich moisture and moderate to locally strong buoyancy, which could result in a severe-thunderstorm threat along/ahead of the front. Substantial timing differences remain regarding the front, but severe probabilities may eventually be needed for this scenario.
D6/Monday - D7/Tuesday
A similar upper-level pattern is expected to persist into early next week, with west-northwesterly midlevel flow extending from the northern Plains into the Midwest/Great Lakes and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic. This pattern will continue to favor at least an isolated severe threat, with low-predictability MCS potential.
..Dean.. 08/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, August 17
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, August 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, August 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, August 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, August 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, August 19 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120835 SPC AC 120835
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Saturday
Most guidance depicts one or more midlevel vorticity maxima cresting the upper ridge and moving across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region on Saturday. However, there is considerable spread regarding the timing of these features and the northward extent of substantial destabilization. The general pattern suggests some potential for MCS development across parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes region, but uncertainty regarding the favored corridor precludes addition of 15% probabilities at this time.
D5/Sunday
Extended-range guidance is in general agreement depicting a cold front that will move across parts of the Midwest, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast on Sunday. This front will impinge upon a reservoir of rich moisture and moderate to locally strong buoyancy, which could result in a severe-thunderstorm threat along/ahead of the front. Substantial timing differences remain regarding the front, but severe probabilities may eventually be needed for this scenario.
D6/Monday - D7/Tuesday
A similar upper-level pattern is expected to persist into early next week, with west-northwesterly midlevel flow extending from the northern Plains into the Midwest/Great Lakes and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic. This pattern will continue to favor at least an isolated severe threat, with low-predictability MCS potential.
..Dean.. 08/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, August 18
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, August 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, August 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, August 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, August 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, August 19 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120835 SPC AC 120835
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Saturday
Most guidance depicts one or more midlevel vorticity maxima cresting the upper ridge and moving across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region on Saturday. However, there is considerable spread regarding the timing of these features and the northward extent of substantial destabilization. The general pattern suggests some potential for MCS development across parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes region, but uncertainty regarding the favored corridor precludes addition of 15% probabilities at this time.
D5/Sunday
Extended-range guidance is in general agreement depicting a cold front that will move across parts of the Midwest, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast on Sunday. This front will impinge upon a reservoir of rich moisture and moderate to locally strong buoyancy, which could result in a severe-thunderstorm threat along/ahead of the front. Substantial timing differences remain regarding the front, but severe probabilities may eventually be needed for this scenario.
D6/Monday - D7/Tuesday
A similar upper-level pattern is expected to persist into early next week, with west-northwesterly midlevel flow extending from the northern Plains into the Midwest/Great Lakes and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic. This pattern will continue to favor at least an isolated severe threat, with low-predictability MCS potential.
..Dean.. 08/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, August 19
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, August 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, August 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, August 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, August 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, August 19 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120835 SPC AC 120835
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Saturday
Most guidance depicts one or more midlevel vorticity maxima cresting the upper ridge and moving across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region on Saturday. However, there is considerable spread regarding the timing of these features and the northward extent of substantial destabilization. The general pattern suggests some potential for MCS development across parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes region, but uncertainty regarding the favored corridor precludes addition of 15% probabilities at this time.
D5/Sunday
Extended-range guidance is in general agreement depicting a cold front that will move across parts of the Midwest, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast on Sunday. This front will impinge upon a reservoir of rich moisture and moderate to locally strong buoyancy, which could result in a severe-thunderstorm threat along/ahead of the front. Substantial timing differences remain regarding the front, but severe probabilities may eventually be needed for this scenario.
D6/Monday - D7/Tuesday
A similar upper-level pattern is expected to persist into early next week, with west-northwesterly midlevel flow extending from the northern Plains into the Midwest/Great Lakes and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic. This pattern will continue to favor at least an isolated severe threat, with low-predictability MCS potential.
..Dean.. 08/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, August 12
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 30%
- Thursday, August 13
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Friday, August 14
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Saturday, August 15
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, August 16
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, August 17
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, August 18
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, August 19
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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