Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, March 23
Outlook Summary
Isolated thunderstorms are possible today from eastern Georgia northward into extreme southeast Virginia.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 230538
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated thunderstorms are possible today from eastern Georgia northward into extreme southeast Virginia.
Overview
A western ridge will support northwest midlevel flow across the eastern US on Monday. Within that flow, a broad shortwave trough will move through the Northeast out into the Atlantic Ocean. At the surface, a weak low off the Mid-Atlantic Coast will quickly move east-northeast, dragging a cold front south along the East Coast. The cold front will be draped across the northern Florida Peninsula Tuesday morning.
Eastern Georgia northward to extreme Southeast Virginia
Isolated thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon along the southward moving cold front. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain lean as veered low-level flow ahead of the front acts to limit convergence along the front. The airmass ahead of the front will become weakly unstable during the afternoon, with the degree of instability strongly dependent upon the quality of boundary layer moisture. However, even if boundary layer moisture is greater than 00Z guidance indicates, generally neutral height tendency, poor midlevel lapse rates, and weak deep-layer shear will further hinder sustained robust thunderstorm updrafts. As such, organized severe thunderstorms are not expected.
..Marsh/Wendt.. 03/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Tuesday, March 24
Outlook Summary
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday across the Florida Peninsula. No severe threat is forecast.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 230539
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday across the Florida Peninsula. No severe threat is forecast.
DISCUSSION
A shortwave mid-level trough will move east-southeastward into the eastern U.S. on Tuesday. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will move from the central Appalachians into the western Atlantic. A dry airmass will be located over most of the continental U.S, except along parts of the Gulf Coast. Within this moist airmass, isolated thunderstorms may develop over the Florida Peninsula Tuesday afternoon. Instability across Florida is expected to be weak, and no severe threat is expected.
..Broyles.. 03/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Wednesday, March 25
Outlook Summary
No severe threat is expected across the U.S. on Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 230713
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
No severe threat is expected across the U.S. on Wednesday and Wednesday night.
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough is forecast to move to the Eastern Seaboard on Wednesday. The southern part of the trough will be over the Florida Peninsula, where isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon. Instability is forecast to be relatively weak across the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday suggesting that storms will likely remain below severe limits. Elsewhere, no severe threat is expected over the continental U.S. on Wednesday and Wednesday night.
..Broyles.. 03/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Thursday, March 26
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, March 26 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Friday, March 27 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, March 28 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, March 29 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, March 30 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230859 SPC AC 230859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 311200Z
DISCUSSION
Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5
Strong westerly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the central and eastern U.S. on Thursday. At low-levels, moisture advection is forecast to strengthen during the day from the mid Mississippi Valley into the lower Ohio Valley as surface dewpoints gradually increase into the lower to mid 60s F. A cold front is forecast to advance southeastward into the southern Great Lakes by Thursday afternoon, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms developing along and near the front. Moderate instability should develop to the south of the front, which combined with strong deep-layer shear will likely support a severe threat during the afternoon and evening. The greatest threat is expected to be from northeast Missouri east-northeastward into western and northern Ohio, where a threat area has been added for Thursday.
On Friday, a mid-level trough is forecast to dig southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley, as a front moves southeastward into the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians. Although isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible near the front during the afternoon and evening, model forecasts suggest that instability will remain relatively weak. This should keep any severe threat minimal.
Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8
The cold front is forecast to move southward through the Southeast on Saturday and should remain near the Gulf Coast on Sunday. In its wake, a relatively dry airmass is forecast to be in place over much of the nation, making thunderstorm development unlikely in most areas. On Monday, some model forecasts suggest that a mid-level shortwave trough will move into the southern Plains. Low-level moisture could return northward into the southern Plains Monday into Monday night. If this where to occur, then thunderstorm activity would be mostly likely Monday night as a low-level jet develops. However, this scenario is highly uncertain due to the extended range in the forecast period.
..Broyles.. 03/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, March 27
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, March 26 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Friday, March 27 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, March 28 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, March 29 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, March 30 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230859 SPC AC 230859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 311200Z
DISCUSSION
Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5
Strong westerly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the central and eastern U.S. on Thursday. At low-levels, moisture advection is forecast to strengthen during the day from the mid Mississippi Valley into the lower Ohio Valley as surface dewpoints gradually increase into the lower to mid 60s F. A cold front is forecast to advance southeastward into the southern Great Lakes by Thursday afternoon, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms developing along and near the front. Moderate instability should develop to the south of the front, which combined with strong deep-layer shear will likely support a severe threat during the afternoon and evening. The greatest threat is expected to be from northeast Missouri east-northeastward into western and northern Ohio, where a threat area has been added for Thursday.
On Friday, a mid-level trough is forecast to dig southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley, as a front moves southeastward into the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians. Although isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible near the front during the afternoon and evening, model forecasts suggest that instability will remain relatively weak. This should keep any severe threat minimal.
Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8
The cold front is forecast to move southward through the Southeast on Saturday and should remain near the Gulf Coast on Sunday. In its wake, a relatively dry airmass is forecast to be in place over much of the nation, making thunderstorm development unlikely in most areas. On Monday, some model forecasts suggest that a mid-level shortwave trough will move into the southern Plains. Low-level moisture could return northward into the southern Plains Monday into Monday night. If this where to occur, then thunderstorm activity would be mostly likely Monday night as a low-level jet develops. However, this scenario is highly uncertain due to the extended range in the forecast period.
..Broyles.. 03/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, March 28
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, March 26 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Friday, March 27 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, March 28 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, March 29 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, March 30 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230859 SPC AC 230859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 311200Z
DISCUSSION
Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5
Strong westerly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the central and eastern U.S. on Thursday. At low-levels, moisture advection is forecast to strengthen during the day from the mid Mississippi Valley into the lower Ohio Valley as surface dewpoints gradually increase into the lower to mid 60s F. A cold front is forecast to advance southeastward into the southern Great Lakes by Thursday afternoon, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms developing along and near the front. Moderate instability should develop to the south of the front, which combined with strong deep-layer shear will likely support a severe threat during the afternoon and evening. The greatest threat is expected to be from northeast Missouri east-northeastward into western and northern Ohio, where a threat area has been added for Thursday.
On Friday, a mid-level trough is forecast to dig southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley, as a front moves southeastward into the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians. Although isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible near the front during the afternoon and evening, model forecasts suggest that instability will remain relatively weak. This should keep any severe threat minimal.
Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8
The cold front is forecast to move southward through the Southeast on Saturday and should remain near the Gulf Coast on Sunday. In its wake, a relatively dry airmass is forecast to be in place over much of the nation, making thunderstorm development unlikely in most areas. On Monday, some model forecasts suggest that a mid-level shortwave trough will move into the southern Plains. Low-level moisture could return northward into the southern Plains Monday into Monday night. If this where to occur, then thunderstorm activity would be mostly likely Monday night as a low-level jet develops. However, this scenario is highly uncertain due to the extended range in the forecast period.
..Broyles.. 03/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, March 29
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, March 26 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Friday, March 27 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, March 28 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, March 29 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, March 30 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230859 SPC AC 230859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 311200Z
DISCUSSION
Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5
Strong westerly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the central and eastern U.S. on Thursday. At low-levels, moisture advection is forecast to strengthen during the day from the mid Mississippi Valley into the lower Ohio Valley as surface dewpoints gradually increase into the lower to mid 60s F. A cold front is forecast to advance southeastward into the southern Great Lakes by Thursday afternoon, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms developing along and near the front. Moderate instability should develop to the south of the front, which combined with strong deep-layer shear will likely support a severe threat during the afternoon and evening. The greatest threat is expected to be from northeast Missouri east-northeastward into western and northern Ohio, where a threat area has been added for Thursday.
On Friday, a mid-level trough is forecast to dig southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley, as a front moves southeastward into the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians. Although isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible near the front during the afternoon and evening, model forecasts suggest that instability will remain relatively weak. This should keep any severe threat minimal.
Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8
The cold front is forecast to move southward through the Southeast on Saturday and should remain near the Gulf Coast on Sunday. In its wake, a relatively dry airmass is forecast to be in place over much of the nation, making thunderstorm development unlikely in most areas. On Monday, some model forecasts suggest that a mid-level shortwave trough will move into the southern Plains. Low-level moisture could return northward into the southern Plains Monday into Monday night. If this where to occur, then thunderstorm activity would be mostly likely Monday night as a low-level jet develops. However, this scenario is highly uncertain due to the extended range in the forecast period.
..Broyles.. 03/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, March 30
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, March 26 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Friday, March 27 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, March 28 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, March 29 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, March 30 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230859 SPC AC 230859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 311200Z
DISCUSSION
Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5
Strong westerly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the central and eastern U.S. on Thursday. At low-levels, moisture advection is forecast to strengthen during the day from the mid Mississippi Valley into the lower Ohio Valley as surface dewpoints gradually increase into the lower to mid 60s F. A cold front is forecast to advance southeastward into the southern Great Lakes by Thursday afternoon, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms developing along and near the front. Moderate instability should develop to the south of the front, which combined with strong deep-layer shear will likely support a severe threat during the afternoon and evening. The greatest threat is expected to be from northeast Missouri east-northeastward into western and northern Ohio, where a threat area has been added for Thursday.
On Friday, a mid-level trough is forecast to dig southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley, as a front moves southeastward into the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians. Although isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible near the front during the afternoon and evening, model forecasts suggest that instability will remain relatively weak. This should keep any severe threat minimal.
Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8
The cold front is forecast to move southward through the Southeast on Saturday and should remain near the Gulf Coast on Sunday. In its wake, a relatively dry airmass is forecast to be in place over much of the nation, making thunderstorm development unlikely in most areas. On Monday, some model forecasts suggest that a mid-level shortwave trough will move into the southern Plains. Low-level moisture could return northward into the southern Plains Monday into Monday night. If this where to occur, then thunderstorm activity would be mostly likely Monday night as a low-level jet develops. However, this scenario is highly uncertain due to the extended range in the forecast period.
..Broyles.. 03/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, March 23
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, March 24
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Wednesday, March 25
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Thursday, March 26
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Friday, March 27
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, March 28
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, March 29
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, March 30
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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