Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, October 6
Outlook Summary
A Marginal Risk for a brief waterspout/tornado is forecast near the coast of the west-central part of the Florida Peninsula through tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 061602
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026
Valid 061630Z - 071200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEST-CENTRAL PART OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
### SUMMARY
A Marginal Risk for a brief waterspout/tornado is forecast near the coast of the west-central part of the Florida Peninsula through tonight.
Central Florida Peninsula
Radar mosaic shows a discontinuous cluster of showers/thunderstorms over the northeast Gulf associated with a weak surface low/frontal wave along a frontal zone draped across the central part of the FL Peninsula. Model guidance continues to show a modest enlargement of the hodograph through the late afternoon and continuing into tonight. Although tropospheric lapse rates will remain poor, sufficient heating in areas void of thicker clouds/rain will lead to weak destabilization across the central part of the Peninsula, as well as over the warm shelf waters west of Tampa Bay (200-500 J/kg MLCAPE). Radar observations earlier this morning showed a few brief/transient supercell structures. Expecting an episodic continuation of these convective characteristics to eventually migrate closer to the immediate coast this afternoon and perhaps linger into late tonight. As a result, a brief waterspout/tornado will be possible near the coast of the west-central portion of the Peninsula.
Elsewhere, severe weather is not forecast.
..Smith/Karstens.. 10/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Wednesday, October 7
Outlook Summary
Severe storms are not expected across the U.S. Wednesday or Wednesday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 061725
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe storms are not expected across the U.S. Wednesday or Wednesday night.
DISCUSSION
A mid-level cyclonic flow pattern will be in place on Wednesday across the northeastern third of the nation. Within the flow, a shortwave trough will move across the Great Lakes. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of this feature in the afternoon. Thunderstorms will also be possible within a moist and unstable airmass across parts of the Florida Peninsula and in south Texas. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will also develop in the afternoon from parts of the Four Corners region into the central Rockies and central Plains. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. Wednesday and Wednesday night.
..Broyles.. 10/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Thursday, October 8
Outlook Summary
Severe storms are not expected on Thursday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 060509
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 AM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe storms are not expected on Thursday.
Synopsis
An upper low will move slowly into western Quebec on Thursday, with a broad area of cyclonic flow aloft from the northern Plains across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. Low-topped convective showers may occur over parts of the upper Great Lakes by virtue of cold temperatures aloft.
To the south, high pressure will maintain dry conditions over much of the Southeast, the exception being FL where a moist air mass and daytime heating will support scattered afternoon thunderstorms.
To the west, isolated weak thunderstorms may occur during the afternoon over parts of the Four Corners states, and overnight from eastern NE into northwest MO. Here, moisture will be the limiting factor to any elevated hail chances.
..Jewell.. 10/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Friday, October 9
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, October 9 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, October 10 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Sunday, October 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, October 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, October 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060829 SPC AC 060829
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
A surface high will move from the OH Valley into the Northeast on Fri/D4 as an upper trough lifts out of the region and temporary upper ridging occurs. A stationary boundary is still forecast to be along the northern Gulf Coast at this time, and a weak midlevel wave will begin to form over TX. Meanwhile, a potential tropical cyclone may develop toward the central Gulf of America.
Low-level winds will begin to veer to a southeasterly direction along the Gulf Coast late Fri/D4 into Sat/D5, as the potential tropical cyclone evolves. NHC currently gives a high probability of this occurring. As such, an influx of rich moisture will develop out of the south, with a substantial rain shield and embedded thunderstorms likely along the northern Gulf Coast beginning Fri/D4 night. Initially, surface temperatures over land will remain cool due to precipitation and initial modification of the surface ridge air mass.
At this time, it appears Sat/D5 is the most likely time for the more substantial low-level warming to occur, with tropical yet sufficiently unstable profiles. Of particular note is how the developing shortwave trough over TX interacts with the tropical low. Some models indicate 40-45 kt midlevel winds, which would complement the strong low-level shear and favor low-topped supercells with tornado potential. The greatest threat area should be along the coastal counties given expected poor low-level lapse rates farther inland. Initial elevated convection may give way to an east-west zone of supercells as the coastal baroclinic zone moves inland. Some additional threat into Sun/D6 may exist as well.
For the period Mon/D7 into Tue/D8, models are now developing an amplified upper trough over the western CONUS. Low-level moistening will be most prominent later in the period, and could eventually result in a zone of strong to severe storm potential, however, predictability is quite low at this time.
..Jewell.. 10/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, October 10
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, October 9 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, October 10 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Sunday, October 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, October 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, October 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060829 SPC AC 060829
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
A surface high will move from the OH Valley into the Northeast on Fri/D4 as an upper trough lifts out of the region and temporary upper ridging occurs. A stationary boundary is still forecast to be along the northern Gulf Coast at this time, and a weak midlevel wave will begin to form over TX. Meanwhile, a potential tropical cyclone may develop toward the central Gulf of America.
Low-level winds will begin to veer to a southeasterly direction along the Gulf Coast late Fri/D4 into Sat/D5, as the potential tropical cyclone evolves. NHC currently gives a high probability of this occurring. As such, an influx of rich moisture will develop out of the south, with a substantial rain shield and embedded thunderstorms likely along the northern Gulf Coast beginning Fri/D4 night. Initially, surface temperatures over land will remain cool due to precipitation and initial modification of the surface ridge air mass.
At this time, it appears Sat/D5 is the most likely time for the more substantial low-level warming to occur, with tropical yet sufficiently unstable profiles. Of particular note is how the developing shortwave trough over TX interacts with the tropical low. Some models indicate 40-45 kt midlevel winds, which would complement the strong low-level shear and favor low-topped supercells with tornado potential. The greatest threat area should be along the coastal counties given expected poor low-level lapse rates farther inland. Initial elevated convection may give way to an east-west zone of supercells as the coastal baroclinic zone moves inland. Some additional threat into Sun/D6 may exist as well.
For the period Mon/D7 into Tue/D8, models are now developing an amplified upper trough over the western CONUS. Low-level moistening will be most prominent later in the period, and could eventually result in a zone of strong to severe storm potential, however, predictability is quite low at this time.
..Jewell.. 10/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, October 11
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, October 9 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, October 10 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Sunday, October 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, October 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, October 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060829 SPC AC 060829
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
A surface high will move from the OH Valley into the Northeast on Fri/D4 as an upper trough lifts out of the region and temporary upper ridging occurs. A stationary boundary is still forecast to be along the northern Gulf Coast at this time, and a weak midlevel wave will begin to form over TX. Meanwhile, a potential tropical cyclone may develop toward the central Gulf of America.
Low-level winds will begin to veer to a southeasterly direction along the Gulf Coast late Fri/D4 into Sat/D5, as the potential tropical cyclone evolves. NHC currently gives a high probability of this occurring. As such, an influx of rich moisture will develop out of the south, with a substantial rain shield and embedded thunderstorms likely along the northern Gulf Coast beginning Fri/D4 night. Initially, surface temperatures over land will remain cool due to precipitation and initial modification of the surface ridge air mass.
At this time, it appears Sat/D5 is the most likely time for the more substantial low-level warming to occur, with tropical yet sufficiently unstable profiles. Of particular note is how the developing shortwave trough over TX interacts with the tropical low. Some models indicate 40-45 kt midlevel winds, which would complement the strong low-level shear and favor low-topped supercells with tornado potential. The greatest threat area should be along the coastal counties given expected poor low-level lapse rates farther inland. Initial elevated convection may give way to an east-west zone of supercells as the coastal baroclinic zone moves inland. Some additional threat into Sun/D6 may exist as well.
For the period Mon/D7 into Tue/D8, models are now developing an amplified upper trough over the western CONUS. Low-level moistening will be most prominent later in the period, and could eventually result in a zone of strong to severe storm potential, however, predictability is quite low at this time.
..Jewell.. 10/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, October 12
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, October 9 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, October 10 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Sunday, October 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, October 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, October 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060829 SPC AC 060829
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
A surface high will move from the OH Valley into the Northeast on Fri/D4 as an upper trough lifts out of the region and temporary upper ridging occurs. A stationary boundary is still forecast to be along the northern Gulf Coast at this time, and a weak midlevel wave will begin to form over TX. Meanwhile, a potential tropical cyclone may develop toward the central Gulf of America.
Low-level winds will begin to veer to a southeasterly direction along the Gulf Coast late Fri/D4 into Sat/D5, as the potential tropical cyclone evolves. NHC currently gives a high probability of this occurring. As such, an influx of rich moisture will develop out of the south, with a substantial rain shield and embedded thunderstorms likely along the northern Gulf Coast beginning Fri/D4 night. Initially, surface temperatures over land will remain cool due to precipitation and initial modification of the surface ridge air mass.
At this time, it appears Sat/D5 is the most likely time for the more substantial low-level warming to occur, with tropical yet sufficiently unstable profiles. Of particular note is how the developing shortwave trough over TX interacts with the tropical low. Some models indicate 40-45 kt midlevel winds, which would complement the strong low-level shear and favor low-topped supercells with tornado potential. The greatest threat area should be along the coastal counties given expected poor low-level lapse rates farther inland. Initial elevated convection may give way to an east-west zone of supercells as the coastal baroclinic zone moves inland. Some additional threat into Sun/D6 may exist as well.
For the period Mon/D7 into Tue/D8, models are now developing an amplified upper trough over the western CONUS. Low-level moistening will be most prominent later in the period, and could eventually result in a zone of strong to severe storm potential, however, predictability is quite low at this time.
..Jewell.. 10/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, October 13
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, October 9 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, October 10 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Sunday, October 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, October 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, October 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060829 SPC AC 060829
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
A surface high will move from the OH Valley into the Northeast on Fri/D4 as an upper trough lifts out of the region and temporary upper ridging occurs. A stationary boundary is still forecast to be along the northern Gulf Coast at this time, and a weak midlevel wave will begin to form over TX. Meanwhile, a potential tropical cyclone may develop toward the central Gulf of America.
Low-level winds will begin to veer to a southeasterly direction along the Gulf Coast late Fri/D4 into Sat/D5, as the potential tropical cyclone evolves. NHC currently gives a high probability of this occurring. As such, an influx of rich moisture will develop out of the south, with a substantial rain shield and embedded thunderstorms likely along the northern Gulf Coast beginning Fri/D4 night. Initially, surface temperatures over land will remain cool due to precipitation and initial modification of the surface ridge air mass.
At this time, it appears Sat/D5 is the most likely time for the more substantial low-level warming to occur, with tropical yet sufficiently unstable profiles. Of particular note is how the developing shortwave trough over TX interacts with the tropical low. Some models indicate 40-45 kt midlevel winds, which would complement the strong low-level shear and favor low-topped supercells with tornado potential. The greatest threat area should be along the coastal counties given expected poor low-level lapse rates farther inland. Initial elevated convection may give way to an east-west zone of supercells as the coastal baroclinic zone moves inland. Some additional threat into Sun/D6 may exist as well.
For the period Mon/D7 into Tue/D8, models are now developing an amplified upper trough over the western CONUS. Low-level moistening will be most prominent later in the period, and could eventually result in a zone of strong to severe storm potential, however, predictability is quite low at this time.
..Jewell.. 10/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, October 6
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Wednesday, October 7
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Thursday, October 8
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Friday, October 9
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, October 10
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Sunday, October 11
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, October 12
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, October 13
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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