Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, October 13
Outlook Summary
Widely scattered severe storms capable of large hail, severe gusts, and possibly a tornado are expected over portions of the central and southern Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley this afternoon into tonight. More isolated severe weather may occur from southwest Texas into the mid Mississippi Valley, and in parts of New York.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 131950
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026
Valid 132000Z - 141200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHWEST MISSOURI/KANSAS INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Widely scattered severe storms capable of large hail, severe gusts, and possibly a tornado are expected over portions of the central and southern Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley this afternoon into tonight. More isolated severe weather may occur from southwest Texas into the mid Mississippi Valley, and in parts of New York.
20z Update
A minor expansion was made to the Level 1/Marginal Risk area across portions of far northeast Oklahoma, far southeast Kansas, and southwest Missouri. The latest guidance indicates potential for a few damaging wind gusts to occur if storms can remain organized late into the overnight and propagate into this region. The low-level jet is forecast to develop this evening across much of Oklahoma and remain present through the overnight, offering support to sustain convection.
Otherwise, the balance of the previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details.
..Karstens/Guyer.. 10/13/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026/
Southern High Plains into KS and the mid MS Valley
Regional 12 UTC raob data over the southern Great Plains showed a very moist boundary layer (15-17 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratios at Norman and Lamont, OK and Midland and Fort Worth, TX) streaming northward. Late morning surface mesoanalysis places a front extending southwestward from a surface low over northern Lower MI through the mid MS/lower MO Valleys and into southeast CO. The frontal zone is forecast to gradually shift south, primarily after dark.
Ample heating via clear skies through mid afternoon will contribute to moderate buoyancy (2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) developing along and south of the aforementioned front, westward to a triple point, and southward into west TX east of a dryline. The erosion of convective inhibition will likely lead to initial widely scattered storm development over central KS per recent CAM data by mid-late afternoon. Strong mid to high-level flow will support supercells early in the convective life cycle with some of the stronger thunderstorms. Storm coverage is forecast to increase through the early evening from northwest OK and KS into the lower MO Valley.
Will maintain previous categorical risk with minimal change. However, have enlarged the level-1 wind intensity and introduced a level-1 hail intensity to account for organized storm modes and a risk for hail 1.5 to 2.5 inches in diameter from the eastern TX Panhandle into central KS. The overall tornado risk is uncertain and will be limited to a certain extent by modest low-level shear despite the supercell mode and a very moist boundary layer. A few small clusters will likely evolve during the evening with a mix of supercellular and multicells capable of severe gusts 60-80 mph. The severe threat should become more isolated with time given increasing nocturnal stabilization and widespread storm interactions.
Parts of western/central NY
A low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough will continue to move quickly eastward through eastern Ontario through the Northeast today. An attendant surface low will eastward just ahead of the parent shortwave. Increasing low-level moisture and afternoon temperatures in the upper 70s will promote modest buoyancy, although clouds/precipitation and relatively warm low to mid-level temperatures result in some uncertainty regarding airmass destabilization.
Increasing deep-layer westerly flow (particularly around 850 mb) amid low-level southwesterlies will result in notably curved low-level hodographs. As a result, any sustained surface-based storms could organize, supporting a threat for localized wind damage and possibly a tornado. Modest buoyancy is expected to limit the overall magnitude and coverage of the severe potential.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Wednesday, October 14
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms capable of mainly damaging wind gusts, isolated hail and a tornado or two are possible across portions of the southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau, and in the parts of the upper Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 131730
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN NORTH TEXAS…ACROSS OKLAHOMA…TO THE WESTERN OZARK PLATEAU
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms capable of mainly damaging wind gusts, isolated hail and a tornado or two are possible across portions of the southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau, and in the parts of the upper Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Southern Plains to the Ozarks
An upper low, initially over the Four Corners, is forecast move eastward over the High Plains while southwesterly flow aloft increases. A series of convectively enhanced vorticity maxima will move along a cold front through the Mid-Atlantic, OH and mid-MS Valleys, and into portions of the southern Plains. Western portions of the front, modified by convection, may eventually stall and perhaps retreat north Wed night in response to falling pressures with a deepening lee low over eastern CO and the central Plains.
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms, in one or more clusters, are likely to be ongoing from the mid MS valley into southern/eastern KS and central OK at 12z Wed. The cold front will likely be reinforced by the convection with the morning outflow potentially causing it to sag slowly across central OK and the western Ozarks Plateau through the day. To the south of the boundary, the air mass should remain very moist (70s F dewpoints), with modest heating contributing to weak to moderate diurnal destabilization. Large-scale ascent will gradually increase as the upper low approaches, aiding in thunderstorm redevelopment along the dryline across the TX Panhandle/western OK, and within the broader warm sector by early afternoon. Increasing deep-layer shear (40-50 kt) will be supportive of a mix of organized supercells and lines/clusters. Damaging winds are the most likely threat given modest low/mid-level lapse rates and a mixed convective mode. However, isolated hail and perhaps a tornado, are also possible with any more persistent supercells.
As the main upper low moves eastward into the evening/overnight, the stalled surface front may gradually return northward as a warm front across OK and KS. The air mass will remain very moist, aided by further moisture advection associated with a developing 30-40 kt low-level jet. As low-level warm air advection increases near the boundary, storm redevelopment is possible through the evening/overnight. Expanding low-level hodographs (ESRH 150-200 m2/s2) and the very moist PBL could support a tornado or two with any supercells or linear clusters able to develop near the surface low and warm front into early Thursday.
OH Valley to the Mid Atlantic
Daytime heating combined with boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s F is expected to contribute to pockets of moderate instability with MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg by mid-late afternoon ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorms ongoing over the mid MS valley, and additional development from the aforementioned vorticity maxima, are expected to increase in areal coverage along the front through the afternoon. Steepening low-level lapse rates coupled with strengthening west-southwesterly winds with height (yielding up to 35-40 kt of deep-layer shear) appear supportive of isolated damaging wind gusts into evening.
..Lyons.. 10/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Thursday, October 15
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe storms are possible over portions of the mid- Mississippi Valley and Midwest Thursday afternoon and evening.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 131930
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe storms are possible over portions of the mid- Mississippi Valley and Midwest Thursday afternoon and evening.
Mid MS Valley/Midwest
The upper low ejecting over the central Plains is forecast to weaken to a positive-tilt open wave as it continues eastward and merges with a northern stream trough from southern Canada late Thursday. The lee low over KS will continue eastward and strengthen as a diffuse warm front lifts northward across the Mid MS and lower OH Valleys. A cold front will trail the low, sweeping south and east from the MO valley into the southern Plains.
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing early Thursday ahead of the low within a zone of low-level warm air advection from the central Plains into the mid-MS Valley. A narrow plume of upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints will be advected northeastward ahead of this activity across eastern IA/MO into western IL. Modest clearing/heating of the air mass should support weak destabilization with MLCAPE of 500-750 J/kg. This will allow for intensification of the storms/new development through the afternoon. Increasing ascent/vertical shear (EBWD 45-60 kt) will support the potential for one or more organized clusters of storms capable of damaging wind gusts through Thursday evening.
Farther southwest across OK/TX, a broken band of showers and storms may still be ongoing ahead of the surging cold front Thursday morning. Low-level flow should quickly veer as the front accelerates favoring undercutting. Poor lapse rates, multiple rounds of prior precipitation and rapidly decreasing surface moisture suggest only weak buoyancy will be present. This should limit severe potential, though a stray severe gust cannot be completely ruled out.
..Lyons.. 10/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Friday, October 16
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, October 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, October 17 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, October 18 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, October 19 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, October 20 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130830 SPC AC 130830
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Friday
An intense midlevel trough will progress from the Great Lakes to off the Atlantic Coast by Saturday morning. An associated surface low is forecast to develop from the lower Great Lakes to off the New England coast while a trailing cold front advances through much of the eastern CONUS. A moist and at least marginally unstable air mass is forecast in portions of the Mid-Atlantic by afternoon, with thunderstorms possible along and ahead of the front. Vertical shear is expected to be relatively strong, suggesting the potential for isolated severe weather. Level-1/Marginal Risk probabilities may be required in the subsequent Day 3 Outlook for this time period.
### Days 5 through 8/Saturday through Tuesday
A considerably drier and more stable low-level air mass will persist at many locations over the weekend with non-severe storms possible in portions of FL and the lower-CO Valley. By early next week, there is good model agreement that a midlevel trough will move into the western CONUS. In response, a deepening lee trough over the High Plains will lead to increasing moisture return, particularly over the southern Plains by Tuesday. However, no severe weather is expected through that time frame.
..Mead.. 10/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, October 17
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, October 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, October 17 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, October 18 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, October 19 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, October 20 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130830 SPC AC 130830
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Friday
An intense midlevel trough will progress from the Great Lakes to off the Atlantic Coast by Saturday morning. An associated surface low is forecast to develop from the lower Great Lakes to off the New England coast while a trailing cold front advances through much of the eastern CONUS. A moist and at least marginally unstable air mass is forecast in portions of the Mid-Atlantic by afternoon, with thunderstorms possible along and ahead of the front. Vertical shear is expected to be relatively strong, suggesting the potential for isolated severe weather. Level-1/Marginal Risk probabilities may be required in the subsequent Day 3 Outlook for this time period.
### Days 5 through 8/Saturday through Tuesday
A considerably drier and more stable low-level air mass will persist at many locations over the weekend with non-severe storms possible in portions of FL and the lower-CO Valley. By early next week, there is good model agreement that a midlevel trough will move into the western CONUS. In response, a deepening lee trough over the High Plains will lead to increasing moisture return, particularly over the southern Plains by Tuesday. However, no severe weather is expected through that time frame.
..Mead.. 10/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, October 18
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, October 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, October 17 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, October 18 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, October 19 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, October 20 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130830 SPC AC 130830
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Friday
An intense midlevel trough will progress from the Great Lakes to off the Atlantic Coast by Saturday morning. An associated surface low is forecast to develop from the lower Great Lakes to off the New England coast while a trailing cold front advances through much of the eastern CONUS. A moist and at least marginally unstable air mass is forecast in portions of the Mid-Atlantic by afternoon, with thunderstorms possible along and ahead of the front. Vertical shear is expected to be relatively strong, suggesting the potential for isolated severe weather. Level-1/Marginal Risk probabilities may be required in the subsequent Day 3 Outlook for this time period.
### Days 5 through 8/Saturday through Tuesday
A considerably drier and more stable low-level air mass will persist at many locations over the weekend with non-severe storms possible in portions of FL and the lower-CO Valley. By early next week, there is good model agreement that a midlevel trough will move into the western CONUS. In response, a deepening lee trough over the High Plains will lead to increasing moisture return, particularly over the southern Plains by Tuesday. However, no severe weather is expected through that time frame.
..Mead.. 10/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, October 19
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, October 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, October 17 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, October 18 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, October 19 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, October 20 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130830 SPC AC 130830
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Friday
An intense midlevel trough will progress from the Great Lakes to off the Atlantic Coast by Saturday morning. An associated surface low is forecast to develop from the lower Great Lakes to off the New England coast while a trailing cold front advances through much of the eastern CONUS. A moist and at least marginally unstable air mass is forecast in portions of the Mid-Atlantic by afternoon, with thunderstorms possible along and ahead of the front. Vertical shear is expected to be relatively strong, suggesting the potential for isolated severe weather. Level-1/Marginal Risk probabilities may be required in the subsequent Day 3 Outlook for this time period.
### Days 5 through 8/Saturday through Tuesday
A considerably drier and more stable low-level air mass will persist at many locations over the weekend with non-severe storms possible in portions of FL and the lower-CO Valley. By early next week, there is good model agreement that a midlevel trough will move into the western CONUS. In response, a deepening lee trough over the High Plains will lead to increasing moisture return, particularly over the southern Plains by Tuesday. However, no severe weather is expected through that time frame.
..Mead.. 10/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, October 20
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, October 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, October 17 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, October 18 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, October 19 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, October 20 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130830 SPC AC 130830
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Friday
An intense midlevel trough will progress from the Great Lakes to off the Atlantic Coast by Saturday morning. An associated surface low is forecast to develop from the lower Great Lakes to off the New England coast while a trailing cold front advances through much of the eastern CONUS. A moist and at least marginally unstable air mass is forecast in portions of the Mid-Atlantic by afternoon, with thunderstorms possible along and ahead of the front. Vertical shear is expected to be relatively strong, suggesting the potential for isolated severe weather. Level-1/Marginal Risk probabilities may be required in the subsequent Day 3 Outlook for this time period.
### Days 5 through 8/Saturday through Tuesday
A considerably drier and more stable low-level air mass will persist at many locations over the weekend with non-severe storms possible in portions of FL and the lower-CO Valley. By early next week, there is good model agreement that a midlevel trough will move into the western CONUS. In response, a deepening lee trough over the High Plains will lead to increasing moisture return, particularly over the southern Plains by Tuesday. However, no severe weather is expected through that time frame.
..Mead.. 10/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, October 13
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Wednesday, October 14
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Thursday, October 15
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Friday, October 16
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, October 17
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, October 18
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, October 19
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, October 20
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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