Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Tuesday, May 12

Outlook Summary

Severe storms are unlikely this evening and overnight. However, thunderstorms remain possible across Florida, the Great Lakes, and the Pacific Northwest.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 130054

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Valid 130100Z - 131200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Severe storms are unlikely this evening and overnight. However, thunderstorms remain possible across Florida, the Great Lakes, and the Pacific Northwest.

01Z Update

All Level 1/Marginal Risks are removed with this update.

Great Lakes Region

Thunderstorms are ongoing across portions of the Upper Great Lakes in association with a strong midlevel low moving across the region. MUCAPE peaked earlier this afternoon around 500 J/kg and has been decreasing with the loss of peak heating and should continue overnight. Thus, despite a favorable vertical shear environment, the lack of appreciable instability should preclude severe development overnight.

Additional forced convection along the advancing cold front cannot be ruled out across portions of Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. However, the lack of appreciable buoyancy precludes the need for severe probabilities.

### Florida

Ongoing thunderstorms across the eastern Florida Panhandle and portions of the Peninsula should continue this evening. Given the uncapped, tropical-like environment, additional thunderstorms cannot be ruled out overnight. However, with the midlevel wave continuing to weaken across northern Florida/southern Georgia overnight, vertical shear profiles should also continue to weaken and limit any severe potential.

### Central Plains

Convergence along the front has been unable to break through the cap this afternoon. With the loss of diurnal heating boundary layer stabilization should limit the potential for surface-based convection and any severe potential. Although elevated showers may develop overnight across southeast Kansas, northeast Oklahoma, southwest Missouri, and northwest Arkansas, decreasing instability should limit even lightning potential.

### Pacific Northwest

As a vigorous midlevel trough approaches the Pacific Northwest this evening it will take on an increasingly negative tilt. Strong deep-layer ascent and increasing midlevel moisture should be sufficient for at least a couple of isolated thunderstorms to develop. Although forecast soundings indicate a dry sub-cloud layer beneath midlevel instability and strong tropospheric flow, the overall thunderstorm coverage should remain too low for unconditional wind probabilities to be introduced.

..Marsh.. 05/13/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, May 13

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern High Plains Wednesday afternoon and evening. Severe wind gusts are the primary hazard.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 121733

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern High Plains Wednesday afternoon and evening. Severe wind gusts are the primary hazard.

Northern Rockies and High Plains into northern Utah

A potent mid-level shortwave trough over western OR/WA will move east across the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains as a downstream ridge shifts east into the Upper Midwest by early Thursday morning. An attendant 80-90 kt 500 mb speed max will overspread ID/MT by peak heating as a cold front sweeps east across portions of the northern Rockies into the northern parts of the Great Basin. Forcing for ascent and diurnal destabilization will lead to scattered thunderstorms developing by mid afternoon. Forecast soundings show large surface temperature-dewpoint depressions and inverted-V thermodynamic profiles. Increasing flow through the cloud-bearing layer will result in relatively swift storm motions within pre-conditioned, dry-adiabatic 0-3 km lapse rates. Isolated to scattered storms developing over the higher terrain will move into the lower elevations and increase in coverage as a couple of linear clusters evolve towards early evening across central MT, and to a lesser degree, across eastern ID. The primary risk will be severe gusts (60-80 mph) accompanying the stronger cores and outflow. Farther south, very deeply mixed boundary layers evident in forecast soundings across northern UT into southern ID will favor severe gusts with the stronger cores.

Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians

An upper-level trough initially over the central Great Lakes will move east-southeastward to the Lower Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic states vicinity during the period. Strong cyclonically curved, 500-mb flow (50+ kt) will move through the base of the trough. A surface low will move eastward across southwestern Ontario as a cold front advances east-southeastward into the central Appalachians. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 50s F will contribute to weak instability as surface temperatures warm during the day. Increasing low-level convergence near the front will lead to scattered thunderstorm development, with additional storms forming due to topographic forcing in the central Appalachians. Ahead of the front, low to mid-level lapse rates are forecast to steepen by midday/early afternoon, lending the potential for several stronger thunderstorms capable of an isolated risk for wind damage and localized severe gusts.

TX Panhandle

Despite a 500-mb ridge overhead, very strong boundary layer heating may sufficiently erode convective inhibition and yield a couple of thunderstorms developing near the Caprock (22-00 UTC). Very steep lapse rates will support an isolated risk for hail/wind if sustained storms develop. This activity will likely dissipate by mid evening.

..Smith.. 05/12/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Thursday, May 14

Outlook Summary

Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday over the central Great Plains. Large to very large hail and severe gusts will likely be the primary severe hazards.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 121929

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS

### SUMMARY

Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday over the central Great Plains. Large to very large hail and severe gusts will likely be the primary severe hazards.

Central Great Plains into the lower MO Valley

Weak elevated showers/storms will likely be ongoing over eastern KS Thursday morning owing to warm advection as low-level southerly flow strengthens. A mid-level disturbance is forecast to move from the CO Front Range to the mid MS Valley during the period invoking poleward moisture transport via southerly flow. Model guidance suggests surface dewpoints to rise into the 60s deg F in an narrow tongue along and east of I-35 in OK and I-135 in central KS. An elevated mixed layer featuring steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (in excess of 8 deg C/km) will contribute towards maintaining a cap through mid afternoon as a moderately to locally very unstable airmass develops east of a dryline. Strong heating and large-scale ascent associated with the eastward-migrating impulse will act to erode convective inhibition. Isolated to widely scattered storms are possible during the 21-00 UTC period. Forecast soundings favor supercells with mainly a risk for large to very large hail. Severe gusts are also possible and would likely focus if small clustering can occur during the early evening as this activity moves east towards the lower MO Valley. A south-southwesterly LLJ is forecast to slightly veer and favor strengthening warm-air advection Thursday night into the lower MO Valley, perhaps facilitating a lingering risk for wind/hail and/or additional elevated thunderstorms posing an overnight hail threat.

..Smith.. 05/12/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Friday, May 15

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120857 SPC AC 120857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6

Over the weekend, mid-level flow is forecast to gradually become southwesterly across the central U.S. In response, low-level moisture advection will occur in the Great Plains. By Friday afternoon, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be in place from north Texas into Oklahoma, eastern Kansas and central to northern Missouri. Isolated severe storms will be possible within this airmass Friday afternoon and evening.

On Saturday, a dryline is forecast to develop from the far eastern Texas Panhandle northward into west-central Kansas. To the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon. As a mid-level shortwave trough approaches in the afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form to the east of the dryline from western Oklahoma into central and eastern Kansas. Supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts, and a tornado threat could develop.

A surge of deeper low-level moisture is expected across the southern and central Plains on Sunday, as an upper-level trough moves through the western U.S. In response, a north-to-south corridor of strong instability is forecast by afternoon from western Oklahoma north and northeastward into central and eastern Kansas. Scattered thunderstorms are expected within this unstable airmass during the afternoon and evening. MCS development may occur in the evening as a complex moves northeastward from the central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley. Supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts and a tornado threat will be possible.

Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8

An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the north-central U.S. on Monday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley, Ozarks and southern Plains. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to form ahead of the front in the afternoon. At this time, model forecasts suggest that instability and deep-layer shear will be strong enough for severe storms across a broad area. However, uncertainty exists concerning the location of the front Monday afternoon. A severe threat area may be needed in later Outlooks, once confidence increases concerning the timing of the front.

On Tuesday, the cold front is forecast to move southward into north Texas and the southern Ozarks. An isolated severe threat could develop ahead of the front in the afternoon and evening. However, uncertainty is substantial at this extended range.

..Broyles.. 05/12/2026

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Outlook for Saturday, May 16

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120857 SPC AC 120857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6

Over the weekend, mid-level flow is forecast to gradually become southwesterly across the central U.S. In response, low-level moisture advection will occur in the Great Plains. By Friday afternoon, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be in place from north Texas into Oklahoma, eastern Kansas and central to northern Missouri. Isolated severe storms will be possible within this airmass Friday afternoon and evening.

On Saturday, a dryline is forecast to develop from the far eastern Texas Panhandle northward into west-central Kansas. To the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon. As a mid-level shortwave trough approaches in the afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form to the east of the dryline from western Oklahoma into central and eastern Kansas. Supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts, and a tornado threat could develop.

A surge of deeper low-level moisture is expected across the southern and central Plains on Sunday, as an upper-level trough moves through the western U.S. In response, a north-to-south corridor of strong instability is forecast by afternoon from western Oklahoma north and northeastward into central and eastern Kansas. Scattered thunderstorms are expected within this unstable airmass during the afternoon and evening. MCS development may occur in the evening as a complex moves northeastward from the central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley. Supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts and a tornado threat will be possible.

Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8

An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the north-central U.S. on Monday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley, Ozarks and southern Plains. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to form ahead of the front in the afternoon. At this time, model forecasts suggest that instability and deep-layer shear will be strong enough for severe storms across a broad area. However, uncertainty exists concerning the location of the front Monday afternoon. A severe threat area may be needed in later Outlooks, once confidence increases concerning the timing of the front.

On Tuesday, the cold front is forecast to move southward into north Texas and the southern Ozarks. An isolated severe threat could develop ahead of the front in the afternoon and evening. However, uncertainty is substantial at this extended range.

..Broyles.. 05/12/2026

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Outlook for Sunday, May 17

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120857 SPC AC 120857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6

Over the weekend, mid-level flow is forecast to gradually become southwesterly across the central U.S. In response, low-level moisture advection will occur in the Great Plains. By Friday afternoon, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be in place from north Texas into Oklahoma, eastern Kansas and central to northern Missouri. Isolated severe storms will be possible within this airmass Friday afternoon and evening.

On Saturday, a dryline is forecast to develop from the far eastern Texas Panhandle northward into west-central Kansas. To the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon. As a mid-level shortwave trough approaches in the afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form to the east of the dryline from western Oklahoma into central and eastern Kansas. Supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts, and a tornado threat could develop.

A surge of deeper low-level moisture is expected across the southern and central Plains on Sunday, as an upper-level trough moves through the western U.S. In response, a north-to-south corridor of strong instability is forecast by afternoon from western Oklahoma north and northeastward into central and eastern Kansas. Scattered thunderstorms are expected within this unstable airmass during the afternoon and evening. MCS development may occur in the evening as a complex moves northeastward from the central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley. Supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts and a tornado threat will be possible.

Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8

An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the north-central U.S. on Monday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley, Ozarks and southern Plains. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to form ahead of the front in the afternoon. At this time, model forecasts suggest that instability and deep-layer shear will be strong enough for severe storms across a broad area. However, uncertainty exists concerning the location of the front Monday afternoon. A severe threat area may be needed in later Outlooks, once confidence increases concerning the timing of the front.

On Tuesday, the cold front is forecast to move southward into north Texas and the southern Ozarks. An isolated severe threat could develop ahead of the front in the afternoon and evening. However, uncertainty is substantial at this extended range.

..Broyles.. 05/12/2026

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Outlook for Monday, May 18

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120857 SPC AC 120857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6

Over the weekend, mid-level flow is forecast to gradually become southwesterly across the central U.S. In response, low-level moisture advection will occur in the Great Plains. By Friday afternoon, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be in place from north Texas into Oklahoma, eastern Kansas and central to northern Missouri. Isolated severe storms will be possible within this airmass Friday afternoon and evening.

On Saturday, a dryline is forecast to develop from the far eastern Texas Panhandle northward into west-central Kansas. To the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon. As a mid-level shortwave trough approaches in the afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form to the east of the dryline from western Oklahoma into central and eastern Kansas. Supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts, and a tornado threat could develop.

A surge of deeper low-level moisture is expected across the southern and central Plains on Sunday, as an upper-level trough moves through the western U.S. In response, a north-to-south corridor of strong instability is forecast by afternoon from western Oklahoma north and northeastward into central and eastern Kansas. Scattered thunderstorms are expected within this unstable airmass during the afternoon and evening. MCS development may occur in the evening as a complex moves northeastward from the central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley. Supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts and a tornado threat will be possible.

Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8

An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the north-central U.S. on Monday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley, Ozarks and southern Plains. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to form ahead of the front in the afternoon. At this time, model forecasts suggest that instability and deep-layer shear will be strong enough for severe storms across a broad area. However, uncertainty exists concerning the location of the front Monday afternoon. A severe threat area may be needed in later Outlooks, once confidence increases concerning the timing of the front.

On Tuesday, the cold front is forecast to move southward into north Texas and the southern Ozarks. An isolated severe threat could develop ahead of the front in the afternoon and evening. However, uncertainty is substantial at this extended range.

..Broyles.. 05/12/2026

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Outlook for Tuesday, May 19

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120857 SPC AC 120857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6

Over the weekend, mid-level flow is forecast to gradually become southwesterly across the central U.S. In response, low-level moisture advection will occur in the Great Plains. By Friday afternoon, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be in place from north Texas into Oklahoma, eastern Kansas and central to northern Missouri. Isolated severe storms will be possible within this airmass Friday afternoon and evening.

On Saturday, a dryline is forecast to develop from the far eastern Texas Panhandle northward into west-central Kansas. To the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon. As a mid-level shortwave trough approaches in the afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form to the east of the dryline from western Oklahoma into central and eastern Kansas. Supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts, and a tornado threat could develop.

A surge of deeper low-level moisture is expected across the southern and central Plains on Sunday, as an upper-level trough moves through the western U.S. In response, a north-to-south corridor of strong instability is forecast by afternoon from western Oklahoma north and northeastward into central and eastern Kansas. Scattered thunderstorms are expected within this unstable airmass during the afternoon and evening. MCS development may occur in the evening as a complex moves northeastward from the central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley. Supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts and a tornado threat will be possible.

Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8

An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the north-central U.S. on Monday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley, Ozarks and southern Plains. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to form ahead of the front in the afternoon. At this time, model forecasts suggest that instability and deep-layer shear will be strong enough for severe storms across a broad area. However, uncertainty exists concerning the location of the front Monday afternoon. A severe threat area may be needed in later Outlooks, once confidence increases concerning the timing of the front.

On Tuesday, the cold front is forecast to move southward into north Texas and the southern Ozarks. An isolated severe threat could develop ahead of the front in the afternoon and evening. However, uncertainty is substantial at this extended range.

..Broyles.. 05/12/2026

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National Risk Overview

Tuesday, May 12

TORNADO: low

HAIL: low

WIND: low

Wednesday, May 13

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 15%

Thursday, May 14

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Friday, May 15

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Saturday, May 16

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Sunday, May 17

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Monday, May 18

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Tuesday, May 19

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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