Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Thursday, April 23

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening from the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley, and upper Mississippi Valley. Tornadoes, large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 230502

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening from the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley, and upper Mississippi Valley. Tornadoes, large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible.

Southern and Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/Upper Mississippi Valley

An upper-level trough will move through the central Rockies this morning, and into the High Plains this afternoon as a 50 to 60 knot mid-level jet moves into the Great Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward into the mid Missouri Valley and central Plains. Moisture advection ahead of the front will increase surface dewpoints into the mid 60s F by afternoon. This will contribute to moderate destabilization as surface temperatures warm along the moist axis. Thunderstorms are first expected to develop ahead of the front over the mid Missouri and upper Mississippi Valleys in the early to mid afternoon. Convective coverage will rapidly expand southward into eastern Kansas by late afternoon, and into far northern Oklahoma during the early to mid evening. MCS development appears likely to take place along and ahead of the front.

The best environment for severe storms will be in eastern Kansas. In this area, RAP forecast soundings late this afternoon ahead of the front have MLCAPE peaking just above 3000 J/kg, with 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 35 to 40 knot range. This environment will support supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense supercells. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to increase into the 300 to 400 m2/s2 range by 00Z, as at 40 to 50 knot low-level jet strengthens. This will support tornadoes with supercells. Supercells will initially be discrete but a line is expected to form by early evening. As the line forms, rotating cells within the line should also be capable of producing tornadoes. A strong tornado or two will be possible late this afternoon and early this evening. A wind-damage threat is also expected to develop. The southern edge of the line will impact far northern Oklahoma in the early to mid evening. Convective coverage should be isolated further south across the rest of Oklahoma.

Further north-northeast into Iowa and southern Minnesota, instability will not be as strong. RAP forecast soundings by late afternoon have MLCAPE peaking in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range. This, combined with 30 to 35 knots of deep-layer shear and 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7 to 7.5 C/km should support large hail with supercells. Supercells and developing line segments should also be capable of producing wind damage, hail and a tornado or two.

..Broyles/Chalmers.. 04/23/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Friday, April 24

Outlook Summary

Scatteed severe thunderstorms are possible Friday from the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main hazards, with a brief tornado also possible. Isolated strong wind gusts may occur across portions of the lower Ohio Valley as well.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 230600

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Scatteed severe thunderstorms are possible Friday from the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main hazards, with a brief tornado also possible. Isolated strong wind gusts may occur across portions of the lower Ohio Valley as well.

Synopsis

Broad cyclonic flow will persist across much of the central and western US as a longwave trough remains anchored over the northern states. In the absences of stronger large-scale ascent across the southern US, convective evolution will be driven primarily by remnant boundaries and subtle perturbations within the broader cyclonic flow.

Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley

Convection is expected to be ongoing from portions of Oklahoma into Arkansas and Missouri at the start of the forecast period, largely tied to a convectively augmented cold front. This activity may still be capable of producing isolated strong wind gusts early in the period, but should gradually weaken through the morning as the low-level jet dissipates and the parent shortwave trough moves away from the region.

The primary severe threat is expected to develop from afternoon into the evening along the effective frontal zone and any residual outflow or differential heating boundaries. Current guidance suggests the boundary will settle near or south of the I-40 corridor, though some uncertainty in the exact location remains. Notably, the HRRR is an outlier in maintaining a farther north and west boundary as compared to other members of the 20260423/00Z HREF.

By afternoon, strong heating south of the boundary will support a moderately to strongly unstable airmass (SBCAPE values in the 2000-3000 J/kg range) from central/east Texas northward toward the boundary, with instability gradually decreasing with eastward extent into Mississippi and Alabama. Deep-layer shear will remain modest across the region (generally 30-35 knots), supporting organized multicells and occasional transient supercells.

Thunderstorms should develop/intensify from eastern Oklahoma into Arkansas along one or more of boundaries across the region. Initial storms may pose a threat for large hail and localized damaging wind gusts as low-level shear will generally remain weak. However, localized enhancements along boundaries or any MCV could support a brief tornado risk.

With time, storm interactions and consolidating outflows should support upscale growth into one or more clusters or linear MCS structures. These systems should move east-southeast into northern Louisiana and central Mississippi through the afternoon and evening hours. While the modest deep-layer shear may temper the overall wind threat somewhat, sufficient organization should still support a corridor of damaging wind gusts.

Farther west into central and eastern Texas, isolated convection may occur along a dryline as diurnal heating weakens inhibition to the east. Storm coverage is expected to remain sparse given weak ascent, but any sustained updrafts in this strongly unstable environment could produce large hail.

Portions of the Ohio Valley

A separate corridor of thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon across portions of the eastern Indiana and western Ohio in the wake of earlier convection. Modest destabilization should occur with perhaps up to 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE. Although the low-level jet will be weakening through the day, residual flow and modest deep-layer shear may support loosely organized convection capable of producing damaging wind gusts.

..Marsh.. 04/23/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Saturday, April 25

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220900 SPC AC 220900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

DISCUSSION

An active severe weather pattern will continue through early next week.

On Saturday/Day-4, model guidance continues to show thunderstorms developing during the late afternoon and early evening hours along a lifting warm front across the Southern Plains. Along and south of this boundary, the environment will be strongly unstable with MUCAPE values between 2000-3000 J/kg as a low-level jet continually advects mid 60Fs dewpoints north across the boundary. Effective layer shear around 40 knots would support an initial supercell threat that should grow upscale into bowing segments overnight. A 30% area is introduced across southwest Kansas into east-central Oklahoma for the expectation is for strong bowing segments to move east-southeast overnight into a strong low-level jet. These storms will be capable of producing strong winds, large hail, and QLCS tornadoes.

On Sunday/Day-5, ongoing convection across southeast Kansas and western Missouri at the start of the period may pose a continued risk of hail and damaging winds, and this convection may persist into mid morning. To the west, continued moist low-level advection will allow for surface dewpoints to rise into the upper 60Fs to low 70Fs across central Oklahoma to the east of a sharp dryline. At the same time, a low-amplitude shortwave should approach the Southern Plains during the late afternoon and evening hours, with a mid-990-millibar surface low developing across northwest Oklahoma along the dryline. The result of this setup will be a volatile atmosphere where MLCAPE values around 4000 J/kg exist within a strongly shear environment (vertical shear nearly 50 knots). Should thunderstorms initiate, a high-end severe weather threat could materialize during the late afternoon and evening hours across central and eastern Oklahoma and southern Kansas. However, global models continue to struggle to develop convection within this environment despite model guidance having modest upward vertical velocities overspreading the dryline. Pattern recognition suggests the need for a 30% severe area for this potential despite the lack of a QPF signal in the global models, and have opted to add one with this forecast. The location of this 30% will likely need to be refined in subsequent outlooks.

The severe threat should continue into Monday/Day-6 across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley. Strong storms should develop along and ahead of an eastward moving cold front. MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and 40-knots of deep-layer shear will support supercell thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards. The location, number, and intensity of these supercells will likely be modulated by the events of Sunday. Specifically, if widespread convection does not occur Sunday across the Southern Plains, a more robust reservoir of CAPE/lapse-rates will be available to thunderstorms across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Monday and a higher-end severe potential may develop. This will be monitored in subsequent forecasts.

By Tuesday/Day-7 into Wednesday/Day-8, uncertainty in the severe potential across the southeast increases too much to have confidence in identifying specific locations. Although, as the mesoscale details become cleared in the preceding days, areas may need to be added in subsequent forecasts.

..Marsh.. 04/22/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, April 26

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220900 SPC AC 220900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

DISCUSSION

An active severe weather pattern will continue through early next week.

On Saturday/Day-4, model guidance continues to show thunderstorms developing during the late afternoon and early evening hours along a lifting warm front across the Southern Plains. Along and south of this boundary, the environment will be strongly unstable with MUCAPE values between 2000-3000 J/kg as a low-level jet continually advects mid 60Fs dewpoints north across the boundary. Effective layer shear around 40 knots would support an initial supercell threat that should grow upscale into bowing segments overnight. A 30% area is introduced across southwest Kansas into east-central Oklahoma for the expectation is for strong bowing segments to move east-southeast overnight into a strong low-level jet. These storms will be capable of producing strong winds, large hail, and QLCS tornadoes.

On Sunday/Day-5, ongoing convection across southeast Kansas and western Missouri at the start of the period may pose a continued risk of hail and damaging winds, and this convection may persist into mid morning. To the west, continued moist low-level advection will allow for surface dewpoints to rise into the upper 60Fs to low 70Fs across central Oklahoma to the east of a sharp dryline. At the same time, a low-amplitude shortwave should approach the Southern Plains during the late afternoon and evening hours, with a mid-990-millibar surface low developing across northwest Oklahoma along the dryline. The result of this setup will be a volatile atmosphere where MLCAPE values around 4000 J/kg exist within a strongly shear environment (vertical shear nearly 50 knots). Should thunderstorms initiate, a high-end severe weather threat could materialize during the late afternoon and evening hours across central and eastern Oklahoma and southern Kansas. However, global models continue to struggle to develop convection within this environment despite model guidance having modest upward vertical velocities overspreading the dryline. Pattern recognition suggests the need for a 30% severe area for this potential despite the lack of a QPF signal in the global models, and have opted to add one with this forecast. The location of this 30% will likely need to be refined in subsequent outlooks.

The severe threat should continue into Monday/Day-6 across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley. Strong storms should develop along and ahead of an eastward moving cold front. MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and 40-knots of deep-layer shear will support supercell thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards. The location, number, and intensity of these supercells will likely be modulated by the events of Sunday. Specifically, if widespread convection does not occur Sunday across the Southern Plains, a more robust reservoir of CAPE/lapse-rates will be available to thunderstorms across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Monday and a higher-end severe potential may develop. This will be monitored in subsequent forecasts.

By Tuesday/Day-7 into Wednesday/Day-8, uncertainty in the severe potential across the southeast increases too much to have confidence in identifying specific locations. Although, as the mesoscale details become cleared in the preceding days, areas may need to be added in subsequent forecasts.

..Marsh.. 04/22/2026

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Outlook for Monday, April 27

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220900 SPC AC 220900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

DISCUSSION

An active severe weather pattern will continue through early next week.

On Saturday/Day-4, model guidance continues to show thunderstorms developing during the late afternoon and early evening hours along a lifting warm front across the Southern Plains. Along and south of this boundary, the environment will be strongly unstable with MUCAPE values between 2000-3000 J/kg as a low-level jet continually advects mid 60Fs dewpoints north across the boundary. Effective layer shear around 40 knots would support an initial supercell threat that should grow upscale into bowing segments overnight. A 30% area is introduced across southwest Kansas into east-central Oklahoma for the expectation is for strong bowing segments to move east-southeast overnight into a strong low-level jet. These storms will be capable of producing strong winds, large hail, and QLCS tornadoes.

On Sunday/Day-5, ongoing convection across southeast Kansas and western Missouri at the start of the period may pose a continued risk of hail and damaging winds, and this convection may persist into mid morning. To the west, continued moist low-level advection will allow for surface dewpoints to rise into the upper 60Fs to low 70Fs across central Oklahoma to the east of a sharp dryline. At the same time, a low-amplitude shortwave should approach the Southern Plains during the late afternoon and evening hours, with a mid-990-millibar surface low developing across northwest Oklahoma along the dryline. The result of this setup will be a volatile atmosphere where MLCAPE values around 4000 J/kg exist within a strongly shear environment (vertical shear nearly 50 knots). Should thunderstorms initiate, a high-end severe weather threat could materialize during the late afternoon and evening hours across central and eastern Oklahoma and southern Kansas. However, global models continue to struggle to develop convection within this environment despite model guidance having modest upward vertical velocities overspreading the dryline. Pattern recognition suggests the need for a 30% severe area for this potential despite the lack of a QPF signal in the global models, and have opted to add one with this forecast. The location of this 30% will likely need to be refined in subsequent outlooks.

The severe threat should continue into Monday/Day-6 across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley. Strong storms should develop along and ahead of an eastward moving cold front. MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and 40-knots of deep-layer shear will support supercell thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards. The location, number, and intensity of these supercells will likely be modulated by the events of Sunday. Specifically, if widespread convection does not occur Sunday across the Southern Plains, a more robust reservoir of CAPE/lapse-rates will be available to thunderstorms across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Monday and a higher-end severe potential may develop. This will be monitored in subsequent forecasts.

By Tuesday/Day-7 into Wednesday/Day-8, uncertainty in the severe potential across the southeast increases too much to have confidence in identifying specific locations. Although, as the mesoscale details become cleared in the preceding days, areas may need to be added in subsequent forecasts.

..Marsh.. 04/22/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, April 28

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220900 SPC AC 220900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

DISCUSSION

An active severe weather pattern will continue through early next week.

On Saturday/Day-4, model guidance continues to show thunderstorms developing during the late afternoon and early evening hours along a lifting warm front across the Southern Plains. Along and south of this boundary, the environment will be strongly unstable with MUCAPE values between 2000-3000 J/kg as a low-level jet continually advects mid 60Fs dewpoints north across the boundary. Effective layer shear around 40 knots would support an initial supercell threat that should grow upscale into bowing segments overnight. A 30% area is introduced across southwest Kansas into east-central Oklahoma for the expectation is for strong bowing segments to move east-southeast overnight into a strong low-level jet. These storms will be capable of producing strong winds, large hail, and QLCS tornadoes.

On Sunday/Day-5, ongoing convection across southeast Kansas and western Missouri at the start of the period may pose a continued risk of hail and damaging winds, and this convection may persist into mid morning. To the west, continued moist low-level advection will allow for surface dewpoints to rise into the upper 60Fs to low 70Fs across central Oklahoma to the east of a sharp dryline. At the same time, a low-amplitude shortwave should approach the Southern Plains during the late afternoon and evening hours, with a mid-990-millibar surface low developing across northwest Oklahoma along the dryline. The result of this setup will be a volatile atmosphere where MLCAPE values around 4000 J/kg exist within a strongly shear environment (vertical shear nearly 50 knots). Should thunderstorms initiate, a high-end severe weather threat could materialize during the late afternoon and evening hours across central and eastern Oklahoma and southern Kansas. However, global models continue to struggle to develop convection within this environment despite model guidance having modest upward vertical velocities overspreading the dryline. Pattern recognition suggests the need for a 30% severe area for this potential despite the lack of a QPF signal in the global models, and have opted to add one with this forecast. The location of this 30% will likely need to be refined in subsequent outlooks.

The severe threat should continue into Monday/Day-6 across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley. Strong storms should develop along and ahead of an eastward moving cold front. MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and 40-knots of deep-layer shear will support supercell thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards. The location, number, and intensity of these supercells will likely be modulated by the events of Sunday. Specifically, if widespread convection does not occur Sunday across the Southern Plains, a more robust reservoir of CAPE/lapse-rates will be available to thunderstorms across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Monday and a higher-end severe potential may develop. This will be monitored in subsequent forecasts.

By Tuesday/Day-7 into Wednesday/Day-8, uncertainty in the severe potential across the southeast increases too much to have confidence in identifying specific locations. Although, as the mesoscale details become cleared in the preceding days, areas may need to be added in subsequent forecasts.

..Marsh.. 04/22/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, April 29

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220900 SPC AC 220900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

DISCUSSION

An active severe weather pattern will continue through early next week.

On Saturday/Day-4, model guidance continues to show thunderstorms developing during the late afternoon and early evening hours along a lifting warm front across the Southern Plains. Along and south of this boundary, the environment will be strongly unstable with MUCAPE values between 2000-3000 J/kg as a low-level jet continually advects mid 60Fs dewpoints north across the boundary. Effective layer shear around 40 knots would support an initial supercell threat that should grow upscale into bowing segments overnight. A 30% area is introduced across southwest Kansas into east-central Oklahoma for the expectation is for strong bowing segments to move east-southeast overnight into a strong low-level jet. These storms will be capable of producing strong winds, large hail, and QLCS tornadoes.

On Sunday/Day-5, ongoing convection across southeast Kansas and western Missouri at the start of the period may pose a continued risk of hail and damaging winds, and this convection may persist into mid morning. To the west, continued moist low-level advection will allow for surface dewpoints to rise into the upper 60Fs to low 70Fs across central Oklahoma to the east of a sharp dryline. At the same time, a low-amplitude shortwave should approach the Southern Plains during the late afternoon and evening hours, with a mid-990-millibar surface low developing across northwest Oklahoma along the dryline. The result of this setup will be a volatile atmosphere where MLCAPE values around 4000 J/kg exist within a strongly shear environment (vertical shear nearly 50 knots). Should thunderstorms initiate, a high-end severe weather threat could materialize during the late afternoon and evening hours across central and eastern Oklahoma and southern Kansas. However, global models continue to struggle to develop convection within this environment despite model guidance having modest upward vertical velocities overspreading the dryline. Pattern recognition suggests the need for a 30% severe area for this potential despite the lack of a QPF signal in the global models, and have opted to add one with this forecast. The location of this 30% will likely need to be refined in subsequent outlooks.

The severe threat should continue into Monday/Day-6 across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley. Strong storms should develop along and ahead of an eastward moving cold front. MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and 40-knots of deep-layer shear will support supercell thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards. The location, number, and intensity of these supercells will likely be modulated by the events of Sunday. Specifically, if widespread convection does not occur Sunday across the Southern Plains, a more robust reservoir of CAPE/lapse-rates will be available to thunderstorms across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Monday and a higher-end severe potential may develop. This will be monitored in subsequent forecasts.

By Tuesday/Day-7 into Wednesday/Day-8, uncertainty in the severe potential across the southeast increases too much to have confidence in identifying specific locations. Although, as the mesoscale details become cleared in the preceding days, areas may need to be added in subsequent forecasts.

..Marsh.. 04/22/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Thursday, April 23

TORNADO: 10%

HAIL: 30%

WIND: 15%

Friday, April 24

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Saturday, April 25

ANY SEVERE: 30%

Sunday, April 26

ANY SEVERE: 30%

Monday, April 27

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Tuesday, April 28

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Wednesday, April 29

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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