Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, June 15
Outlook Summary
Isolated large hail and severe thunderstorm winds may occur across the southern High Plains and Dakotas/Upper Midwest this afternoon and evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 151245
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026
Valid 151300Z - 161200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST
### SUMMARY
Isolated large hail and severe thunderstorm winds may occur across the southern High Plains and Dakotas/Upper Midwest this afternoon and evening.
Southern High Plains
Beneath a northwesterly mid-level flow regime, lee side cyclogenesis today will influence additional northward moistening regionally, in the presence of low-level upslope trajectories with diurnal differential heating along the higher terrain including the Raton Mesa. Thunderstorms will develop/increase through mid/late afternoon across eastern New Mexico/far southeast Colorado, and could expand northeastward into southwest Kansas by evening. Modest buoyancy and 30-40 kt effective shear regionally will be supportive of a few supercells and sustained multicells, with potential consolidation into small organizing southeastward-moving clusters. Isolated instances of large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts may occur mainly late this afternoon through mid-evening.
Dakotas/Minnesota
Influenced by a clipper-type southeastward-digging shortwave trough, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop near a southeastward-moving pre-frontal trough/cold front this afternoon. While overall moisture/buoyancy will be limited, diurnally steepening lapse rates and strengthening mid-level west-northwesterly winds could yield some hail, and more so, strong/locally severe wind gusts this afternoon through around sunset.
Gulf Coast/Coastal Southeast
Some stronger pulse-type storms with gusty winds may occur this afternoon within a moist and moderately unstable environment to the south of a front. However, current expectations are for the severe-storm risk to remain highly localized with organized severe potential remaining limited overall.
..Guyer/Broyles.. 06/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Tuesday, June 16
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening across parts of the Midwest into Lower Michigan.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 150448
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening across parts of the Midwest into Lower Michigan.
Midwest
A midlevel shortwave trough will migrate east across the Midwest and Great Lakes on Tuesday. This will support a band of enhanced midlevel southwesterly flow across portions of WI/IL and into IN/Lower MI/OH during the afternoon and evening. Cooling aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and support MLCAPE up to 1500 J/kg. A weak cold front will move across the region during the afternoon/evening, and a band of convection will develop ahead of this feature. The main limiting factor precluding higher severe probabilities at this time is the expectation for meager boundary layer moisture. Surface dewpoints will generally be in the mid/upper 50s to near 60 F. Forecast soundings indicate sufficient deep layer shear for transient supercells and clusters with a risk for isolated hail and strong wind gusts.
Northern Oklahoma vicinity
Some forecast guidance suggests storms may develop across parts of northern OK during the late afternoon/early evening as midlevel flow increases within a strengthening warm advection regime. However, given a lack of large-scale ascent or focus for thunderstorm initiation other than strong daytime heating for an increasing moist airmass, confidence in sustained thunderstorm development is low. If storms can develop and be maintained, a risk for strong gusts and isolated hail will be possible. If confidence increases, low unconditional severe probabilities could be needed.
Eastern Montana/Western North Dakota
Strong storms are expected to develop within strong northwesterly deep layer flow over the Canadian Prairies Tuesday afternoon/evening. This activity will quickly develop southeast into MT/ND by late afternoon/evening. Strong heating amid meager low-level moisture will result in deep boundary layer mixing and weak instability. Locally gusty winds could accompany this activity.
..Leitman.. 06/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Wednesday, June 17
Outlook Summary
An all-hazards severe thunderstorm episode is expected across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley into Indiana on Wednesday. Intense thunderstorms may produce swaths of damaging wind, as well as strong tornadoes and large hail.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 30%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 150727
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO INDIANA
### SUMMARY
An all-hazards severe thunderstorm episode is expected across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley into Indiana on Wednesday. Intense thunderstorms may produce swaths of damaging wind, as well as strong tornadoes and large hail.
Midwest
A midlevel shortwave trough is forecast to move from the northern Plains through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region on Wednesday. As this occurs, very strong deep-layer flow, especially for this time of year, will move across portions of the Mid-MS Valley into the Ohio Valley. A westerly 500 mb jet streak characterized by at least 70-80 kt will overspread parts of IA/MO/IL/IN in the afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, a 50+ kt southwesterly 850 mb low-level jet will spread across the same area during the afternoon/evening, just ahead of an east/southeast-advancing surface cold front. These strong wind fields, in conjunction with a surface low moving eastward across MN and the Upper Great Lakes, will aid in northward transport of rich boundary layer moisture (upper 60s to near 70 F surface dewpoints). Cooling aloft will steepen midlevel lapse rates, and moderate to strong destabilization is expected across the warm sector. Overall, this pattern should support numerous severe storms. While convective evolution remains uncertain, it is likely that at least some initial supercell risk will unfold during the afternoon and early evening (particularly across MO/IL), with potential for one or more bowing MCSs developing with time. This environment will support a risk for all severe hazards, and particularly swaths of damaging winds, and strong tornadoes.
Some uncertainty remains regarding the northward extent of the severe risk. Most medium range guidance indicates a lead shortwave impulse may move across IA/IL early in the day. Coupled with strong warm advection across the region, morning thunderstorm develop near/north of a warm front oriented from southeast MN into northeast IL at midday could suppress northward development of the warm front. Likewise, the southwest extent of the risk area into portions of KS/OK may be limited by capping concerns, and weaker forcing for ascent. Meanwhile, the southward extent of the severe risk across the Ohio Valley will be modulated by the stronger westerly component of mid/upper flow overnight and slow southward movement of the surface cold front. The risk area may shift some in coming days as surface boundaries and other mesoscale details become better resolved.
..Leitman.. 06/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Thursday, June 18
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, June 18 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Friday, June 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, June 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, June 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, June 22 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150757 SPC AC 150757
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Thursday – Mid-Atlantic/Northeast
Strong mid/upper level westerly flow will overspread portions of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast as a shortwave trough pivots across Quebec/Ontario and the Northeast U.S. on Thursday. Quite a bit of uncertainty exists regarding severe potential. Early day convection and cloud cover may limited destabilization from the Upper Ohio Valley into parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic and northeast. Additionally, stronger mid/upper level flow will become increasingly displaced to the north from richer boundary-layer moisture and stronger instability. Nevertheless, sufficient overlap of strong flow atop a moist airmass should occur from southern Ohio/eastern KY into the Mid-Atlantic, supporting a risk for severe thunderstorms on Thursday. This area will likely shift some in the coming days as mesoscale details become better resolved.
Days 5-8/Friday-Monday
A surface front will sag southward across the Gulf Coast states, with surface high pressure centered over the Mid-South vicinity on Friday. This should suppress the overall severe risk as richer boundary layer moisture remains confined to TX and the Gulf Coast. On Saturday, northward transport of Gulf moisture across the Plains is expected beneath a building upper ridge. By Sunday, an upper trough over the West may eject eastward into the Plains, resulting in some return of severe thunderstorm potential this weekend, though spread among forecast guidance is quite large and predictability is low late in the forecast period.
..Leitman.. 06/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, June 19
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, June 18 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Friday, June 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, June 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, June 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, June 22 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150757 SPC AC 150757
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Thursday – Mid-Atlantic/Northeast
Strong mid/upper level westerly flow will overspread portions of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast as a shortwave trough pivots across Quebec/Ontario and the Northeast U.S. on Thursday. Quite a bit of uncertainty exists regarding severe potential. Early day convection and cloud cover may limited destabilization from the Upper Ohio Valley into parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic and northeast. Additionally, stronger mid/upper level flow will become increasingly displaced to the north from richer boundary-layer moisture and stronger instability. Nevertheless, sufficient overlap of strong flow atop a moist airmass should occur from southern Ohio/eastern KY into the Mid-Atlantic, supporting a risk for severe thunderstorms on Thursday. This area will likely shift some in the coming days as mesoscale details become better resolved.
Days 5-8/Friday-Monday
A surface front will sag southward across the Gulf Coast states, with surface high pressure centered over the Mid-South vicinity on Friday. This should suppress the overall severe risk as richer boundary layer moisture remains confined to TX and the Gulf Coast. On Saturday, northward transport of Gulf moisture across the Plains is expected beneath a building upper ridge. By Sunday, an upper trough over the West may eject eastward into the Plains, resulting in some return of severe thunderstorm potential this weekend, though spread among forecast guidance is quite large and predictability is low late in the forecast period.
..Leitman.. 06/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, June 20
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, June 18 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Friday, June 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, June 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, June 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, June 22 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150757 SPC AC 150757
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Thursday – Mid-Atlantic/Northeast
Strong mid/upper level westerly flow will overspread portions of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast as a shortwave trough pivots across Quebec/Ontario and the Northeast U.S. on Thursday. Quite a bit of uncertainty exists regarding severe potential. Early day convection and cloud cover may limited destabilization from the Upper Ohio Valley into parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic and northeast. Additionally, stronger mid/upper level flow will become increasingly displaced to the north from richer boundary-layer moisture and stronger instability. Nevertheless, sufficient overlap of strong flow atop a moist airmass should occur from southern Ohio/eastern KY into the Mid-Atlantic, supporting a risk for severe thunderstorms on Thursday. This area will likely shift some in the coming days as mesoscale details become better resolved.
Days 5-8/Friday-Monday
A surface front will sag southward across the Gulf Coast states, with surface high pressure centered over the Mid-South vicinity on Friday. This should suppress the overall severe risk as richer boundary layer moisture remains confined to TX and the Gulf Coast. On Saturday, northward transport of Gulf moisture across the Plains is expected beneath a building upper ridge. By Sunday, an upper trough over the West may eject eastward into the Plains, resulting in some return of severe thunderstorm potential this weekend, though spread among forecast guidance is quite large and predictability is low late in the forecast period.
..Leitman.. 06/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, June 21
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, June 18 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Friday, June 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, June 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, June 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, June 22 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150757 SPC AC 150757
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Thursday – Mid-Atlantic/Northeast
Strong mid/upper level westerly flow will overspread portions of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast as a shortwave trough pivots across Quebec/Ontario and the Northeast U.S. on Thursday. Quite a bit of uncertainty exists regarding severe potential. Early day convection and cloud cover may limited destabilization from the Upper Ohio Valley into parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic and northeast. Additionally, stronger mid/upper level flow will become increasingly displaced to the north from richer boundary-layer moisture and stronger instability. Nevertheless, sufficient overlap of strong flow atop a moist airmass should occur from southern Ohio/eastern KY into the Mid-Atlantic, supporting a risk for severe thunderstorms on Thursday. This area will likely shift some in the coming days as mesoscale details become better resolved.
Days 5-8/Friday-Monday
A surface front will sag southward across the Gulf Coast states, with surface high pressure centered over the Mid-South vicinity on Friday. This should suppress the overall severe risk as richer boundary layer moisture remains confined to TX and the Gulf Coast. On Saturday, northward transport of Gulf moisture across the Plains is expected beneath a building upper ridge. By Sunday, an upper trough over the West may eject eastward into the Plains, resulting in some return of severe thunderstorm potential this weekend, though spread among forecast guidance is quite large and predictability is low late in the forecast period.
..Leitman.. 06/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, June 22
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, June 18 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Friday, June 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, June 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, June 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, June 22 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150757 SPC AC 150757
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Thursday – Mid-Atlantic/Northeast
Strong mid/upper level westerly flow will overspread portions of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast as a shortwave trough pivots across Quebec/Ontario and the Northeast U.S. on Thursday. Quite a bit of uncertainty exists regarding severe potential. Early day convection and cloud cover may limited destabilization from the Upper Ohio Valley into parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic and northeast. Additionally, stronger mid/upper level flow will become increasingly displaced to the north from richer boundary-layer moisture and stronger instability. Nevertheless, sufficient overlap of strong flow atop a moist airmass should occur from southern Ohio/eastern KY into the Mid-Atlantic, supporting a risk for severe thunderstorms on Thursday. This area will likely shift some in the coming days as mesoscale details become better resolved.
Days 5-8/Friday-Monday
A surface front will sag southward across the Gulf Coast states, with surface high pressure centered over the Mid-South vicinity on Friday. This should suppress the overall severe risk as richer boundary layer moisture remains confined to TX and the Gulf Coast. On Saturday, northward transport of Gulf moisture across the Plains is expected beneath a building upper ridge. By Sunday, an upper trough over the West may eject eastward into the Plains, resulting in some return of severe thunderstorm potential this weekend, though spread among forecast guidance is quite large and predictability is low late in the forecast period.
..Leitman.. 06/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, June 15
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Tuesday, June 16
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Wednesday, June 17
- ANY SEVERE: 30%
- Thursday, June 18
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Friday, June 19
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, June 20
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, June 21
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, June 22
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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