Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Sunday, August 16

Monday, August 17

Tuesday, August 18

Wednesday, August 19

Thursday, August 20

Friday, August 21

Saturday, August 22

Sunday, August 23

Outlook for Sunday, August 16

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts will be possible from this afternoon into early evening over parts of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Large hail and isolated severe wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the central High Plains.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 15%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 161242

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Valid 161300Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY…CENTRAL APPALACHIANS…MID-ATLANTIC…AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts will be possible from this afternoon into early evening over parts of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Large hail and isolated severe wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the central High Plains.

Lower MO Valley through the OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic

Satellite and regional radar imagery shows several vorticity maxima embedded within the moderate westerly flow aloft that extends from the central Plains across the OH Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic. The strongest vorticity maximum is currently moving through north-central KS and south-central NE, while more subtle maxima exist across western IL, southwestern Lower MI/far northern IN, and western PA. Each of these features will likely contribute to showers and thunderstorms later today. The most consequential of these storms will likely occur in tandem with the western IL and southwestern Lower MI waves as they interact with a moist and diurnally destabilized airmass from the middle OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Airmass destabilization appears likely by the early afternoon, with renewed thunderstorm development anticipated from southeast Lower MI into southern IN. Moderate vertical shear will be in place, supporting a predominantly multicellular mode. Mid-level winds may increase slightly throughout the afternoon, and a supercell or two is possible over southern OH. A trend towards clustering and the development of linear segments is anticipated over time, with damaging gusts as the primary risk throughout the day.

These storms will continue eastward across WV into Mid-Atlantic during the late afternoon/early evening. Moderate buoyancy will support storm persistence and the potential for continued damaging gusts. Additional thunderstorm development is possible ahead of these clusters in areas of low-level convergence during the afternoon. Moderate vertical shear could support a few more organized storms, with water-loaded downbursts as the primary severe risk. A tornado or two is also possible, particularly across northern VA where southerly surface winds could result in adequate low-level hodograph curvature.

Farther west (across the Lower MO Valley), the well-defined vorticity maximum currently over north-central KS/southern-central NE is forecast to be east of the region by the late afternoon, but airmass destabilization in its wake is uncertain. If the airmass can recover, additional thunderstorms are likely along a cold front moving into the region this evening. Strong buoyancy will support robust updrafts, but modest vertical shear will keep storm organization limited. If thunderstorms form, a few strong gusts are possible across this region this evening.

Northern/Central High Plains

Scattered thunderstorm development in anticipated this afternoon across the northern and central High Plains. Thunderstorms over the northern High Plains will be supported by low-level convergence along the western edge of the moist airmass over the Plains. Moderate vertical shear could support a few supercells capable of hail and strong gusts, but modest buoyancy should keep the overall severe threat isolated.

Thunderstorm development farther south across the central High Plains will result from a combination of moist low-level easterlies, westerly flow aloft and orographic effects. Here, more cellular development over the high terrain and immediate foothills could pose a risk for large hail before transitioning towards more linear structures with strong gusts as the primary severe risk.

..Mosier/Dean.. 08/16/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

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Outlook for Monday, August 17

Outlook Summary

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon and evening across portions of the northern and central Plains, and parts of the southern Appalachians/Carolinas.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 15%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 160526

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY…AND ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS

### SUMMARY

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon and evening across portions of the northern and central Plains, and parts of the southern Appalachians/Carolinas.

Northern/Central Plains

An upper shortwave trough will deepen as it develop east/southeast across Ontario and the Upper Midwest, resulting in broader height falls from the northern/central Plains to Great Lakes. As this occurs, 40-50 kt northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the region. At the surface, a cold front will extend from northwest MN into western NE by 00z. Ahead of the front, a corridor of 60s F dewpoints are expected across central/eastern NE into IA/southeast SD and MN. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely to develop by late afternoon ahead of the surface boundary. Modestly steep lapse rates and strong heating of the moist boundary layer will result in 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE amid 35+ kt effective shear magnitudes. This should result in organized supercells structures capable of large hail and damaging gusts. There is some potential upscale growth could occur during the evening across NE as a modest low-level jet develops. If this occurs, the damaging wind risk could increase.

South-central Appalachians

A vorticity max located over the Lower OH Valley will develop east/southeast through 30-40 kt west/northwesterly flow aloft Monday afternoon and evening. A very moist and unstable airmass will be in place amid strong daytime heating. Large-scale ascent will increase as the vorticity maxima approaches during the afternoon, and a surface boundary begins to sag south/southeast over the region. Steep low-level lapse rates, high PW values, and 25-30 kt effective shear magnitudes could result in organized clusters producing damaging gusts through evening.

..Leitman.. 08/16/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, August 18

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected on Tuesday afternoon/evening across parts of the central Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 160719

Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY

CORRECTED FOR MISSPELLING

SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected on Tuesday afternoon/evening across parts of the central Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley.

Central Plains to Mid-MS Valley vicinity

Height falls are expected across the region during the afternoon into Tuesday night as an upper trough continues to dig across the Great Lakes. This will result in increasing northwesterly flow aloft, and a deepening surface low over KS. Rich boundary layer moisture will be in place ahead of a south/southeast-advancing cold front. Moderate to strong instability is expected to develop by afternoon. Forecast soundings show steep midlevel lapse rates, with vertically veering wind profiles supporting 40+ kt effective shear. Elongated/straight hodographs are also present in forecast soundings. Initial supercells could pose a risk for large hail and severe gusts. With time, sufficient clustering could occur ahead of the front as a low-level jet increases during the evening, and MCS development may occur.

..Leitman.. 08/16/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, August 19

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, August 19	predictability too low
Day 5	Thursday, August 20	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, August 21	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, August 22	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, August 23	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160752 SPC AC 160752

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-5/Wed-Thu – Mid-South to Mid-Atlantic

An amplifying upper pattern is expected mid-week into the weekend, with troughing developing across the eastern half of the CONUS and an upper riding across the western half. As the upper trough digs across the eastern U.S., some severe potential could develop across the Mid-South into the southern Mid-Atlantic on Days 4-5/Wed-Thu. Building surface high pressure across the Great Lakes and stalled upper troughing will result in a slowly sagging surface front arcing across the region. With a very moist airmass in place, thunderstorms are possible, and at least isolated damaging winds could accompany this activity. However, potential appears too limited at this time for 15 percent probabilities at the time scale.

Days 7-8/Sat-Sun – Northern/Central Plains

Some severe potential could develop across the Plains during the weekend on the eastern periphery of the amplified upper ridge. Northwesterly flow aloft will remain enhanced across the region as southerly low-level flow on the back side of the Great Lakes surface high transports rich boundary layer moisture across the region. It is uncertain if capping will preclude thunderstorm development, but if any shortwave impulses migrate through northwesterly flow aloft, some severe risk could develop.

..Leitman.. 08/16/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Thursday, August 20

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, August 19	predictability too low
Day 5	Thursday, August 20	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, August 21	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, August 22	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, August 23	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160752 SPC AC 160752

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-5/Wed-Thu – Mid-South to Mid-Atlantic

An amplifying upper pattern is expected mid-week into the weekend, with troughing developing across the eastern half of the CONUS and an upper riding across the western half. As the upper trough digs across the eastern U.S., some severe potential could develop across the Mid-South into the southern Mid-Atlantic on Days 4-5/Wed-Thu. Building surface high pressure across the Great Lakes and stalled upper troughing will result in a slowly sagging surface front arcing across the region. With a very moist airmass in place, thunderstorms are possible, and at least isolated damaging winds could accompany this activity. However, potential appears too limited at this time for 15 percent probabilities at the time scale.

Days 7-8/Sat-Sun – Northern/Central Plains

Some severe potential could develop across the Plains during the weekend on the eastern periphery of the amplified upper ridge. Northwesterly flow aloft will remain enhanced across the region as southerly low-level flow on the back side of the Great Lakes surface high transports rich boundary layer moisture across the region. It is uncertain if capping will preclude thunderstorm development, but if any shortwave impulses migrate through northwesterly flow aloft, some severe risk could develop.

..Leitman.. 08/16/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Friday, August 21

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, August 19	predictability too low
Day 5	Thursday, August 20	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, August 21	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, August 22	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, August 23	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160752 SPC AC 160752

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-5/Wed-Thu – Mid-South to Mid-Atlantic

An amplifying upper pattern is expected mid-week into the weekend, with troughing developing across the eastern half of the CONUS and an upper riding across the western half. As the upper trough digs across the eastern U.S., some severe potential could develop across the Mid-South into the southern Mid-Atlantic on Days 4-5/Wed-Thu. Building surface high pressure across the Great Lakes and stalled upper troughing will result in a slowly sagging surface front arcing across the region. With a very moist airmass in place, thunderstorms are possible, and at least isolated damaging winds could accompany this activity. However, potential appears too limited at this time for 15 percent probabilities at the time scale.

Days 7-8/Sat-Sun – Northern/Central Plains

Some severe potential could develop across the Plains during the weekend on the eastern periphery of the amplified upper ridge. Northwesterly flow aloft will remain enhanced across the region as southerly low-level flow on the back side of the Great Lakes surface high transports rich boundary layer moisture across the region. It is uncertain if capping will preclude thunderstorm development, but if any shortwave impulses migrate through northwesterly flow aloft, some severe risk could develop.

..Leitman.. 08/16/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Saturday, August 22

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, August 19	predictability too low
Day 5	Thursday, August 20	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, August 21	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, August 22	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, August 23	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160752 SPC AC 160752

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-5/Wed-Thu – Mid-South to Mid-Atlantic

An amplifying upper pattern is expected mid-week into the weekend, with troughing developing across the eastern half of the CONUS and an upper riding across the western half. As the upper trough digs across the eastern U.S., some severe potential could develop across the Mid-South into the southern Mid-Atlantic on Days 4-5/Wed-Thu. Building surface high pressure across the Great Lakes and stalled upper troughing will result in a slowly sagging surface front arcing across the region. With a very moist airmass in place, thunderstorms are possible, and at least isolated damaging winds could accompany this activity. However, potential appears too limited at this time for 15 percent probabilities at the time scale.

Days 7-8/Sat-Sun – Northern/Central Plains

Some severe potential could develop across the Plains during the weekend on the eastern periphery of the amplified upper ridge. Northwesterly flow aloft will remain enhanced across the region as southerly low-level flow on the back side of the Great Lakes surface high transports rich boundary layer moisture across the region. It is uncertain if capping will preclude thunderstorm development, but if any shortwave impulses migrate through northwesterly flow aloft, some severe risk could develop.

..Leitman.. 08/16/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Sunday, August 23

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, August 19	predictability too low
Day 5	Thursday, August 20	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, August 21	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, August 22	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, August 23	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160752 SPC AC 160752

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-5/Wed-Thu – Mid-South to Mid-Atlantic

An amplifying upper pattern is expected mid-week into the weekend, with troughing developing across the eastern half of the CONUS and an upper riding across the western half. As the upper trough digs across the eastern U.S., some severe potential could develop across the Mid-South into the southern Mid-Atlantic on Days 4-5/Wed-Thu. Building surface high pressure across the Great Lakes and stalled upper troughing will result in a slowly sagging surface front arcing across the region. With a very moist airmass in place, thunderstorms are possible, and at least isolated damaging winds could accompany this activity. However, potential appears too limited at this time for 15 percent probabilities at the time scale.

Days 7-8/Sat-Sun – Northern/Central Plains

Some severe potential could develop across the Plains during the weekend on the eastern periphery of the amplified upper ridge. Northwesterly flow aloft will remain enhanced across the region as southerly low-level flow on the back side of the Great Lakes surface high transports rich boundary layer moisture across the region. It is uncertain if capping will preclude thunderstorm development, but if any shortwave impulses migrate through northwesterly flow aloft, some severe risk could develop.

..Leitman.. 08/16/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

National Risk Overview

Sunday, August 16: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Monday, August 17: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Tuesday, August 18: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Wednesday, August 19: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, August 20: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, August 21: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, August 22: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, August 23: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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