Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, May 16
Outlook Summary
Severe storms capable of large hail, wind damage and perhaps a couple of tornadoes will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains. Scattered thunderstorms will also pose potential for strong to severe winds across the lower to mid Missouri Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 30%
hail 30%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 160535
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS
### SUMMARY
Severe storms capable of large hail, wind damage and perhaps a couple of tornadoes will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains. Scattered thunderstorms will also pose potential for strong to severe winds across the lower to mid Missouri Valley.
Synopsis
An upper trough will develop over the western states today, with increasing southwest winds aloft late in the day and overnight across the Rockies and into the High Plains. Preceding the western trough, a progressive shortwave will move from the Great Lakes and into the Northeast, allowing temporary height rises across the upper Midwest/MS Valley. Behind this wave, high pressure will bring stable conditions into the northern Plains.
At the surface, low pressure will develop over the central High Plains, with a trough extending from eastern WY into western TX. Meanwhile, a stalled front will be situated across northeast CO into northern KS and toward IA/northern IL, with easterly winds across NE and IA. A moist air mass will reside south of this boundary, with 60s F dewpoints prevalent. Backed winds will help bring this moisture westward toward northeast CO and western NE by late afternoon as 850 mb winds increase toward evening. Shear profiles will thus become increasingly favorable from late afternoon through evening for supercells, with large hail, damaging winds and perhaps a couple tornadoes from CO into western NE/KS.
East of there, another concentration of strong to severe storms is expected from eastern NE into IA, northern MO and northeast KS near the boundary.
Elsewhere, a broad fetch of 20-30 kt southerly 850 mb winds will maintain a moist air mass across the lower to middle MS Valley and across the OH Valley. Here, pockets of stronger instability will support scattered strong storms during the afternoon.
Central Plains
Storms are likely to form near the Front Range after 21Z, with activity developing eastward into NE and KS. A few supercells appear likely with time, producing damaging hail and severe wind gusts. Westerly winds aloft atop the deep low-level easterlies will elongate hodographs with over 50 kt effective shear, while SRH values favor supercells and severe bows through evening.
Farther east, strong instability will develop near the east-west boundary, with scattered severe storms developing around 21Z. Some of these storms may produce hail over 2.00" diameter as lapse rates aloft will remain steep, and with ample moisture.
Additional isolated activity is possible along the dryline from southwest KS into the eastern TX Panhandle and western OK. Here, shear will be weak but a narrow zone of uncapped air mass with a backing dryline may support isolated storms with locally severe hail or wind gusts.
..Jewell/Squitieri.. 05/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Sunday, May 17
Outlook Summary
Severe storms are expected Sunday afternoon into Sunday night from portions of the central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Supercells with very large hail and tornadoes are possible, before upscale storm growth leads to an increase in the wind damage threat.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 10%
wind 15%
hail 30%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 160601
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
### SUMMARY
Severe storms are expected Sunday afternoon into Sunday night from portions of the central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Supercells with very large hail and tornadoes are possible, before upscale storm growth leads to an increase in the wind damage threat.
Synopsis
A mid-level trough currently across the Pacific Northwest will deepen D2/Sunday, moving across Great Basin into the Four Corners into early D3/Monday. Elevated convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the period across portions of northern Nebraska into Iowa. Westerly flow will overspread the central/northern Plains as a lead shortwave moves across western Kansas into Nebraska through the day before shifting into the Upper Midwest. A surface cyclone will deepen across eastern Colorado/western Kansas with strong moist southerly flow and mid 60s dew points extending across much of the central and southern Plains. Thunderstorm development is expected by the afternoon from a stationary boundary/warm front across central Nebraska southward to the dryline across central Kansas and perhaps as far south as the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles.
NE to MN
Strong daytime heating and destabilization should occur behind morning convection across Nebraska into Iowa through broken cloud cover. Better clearing will be possible across southeastern/south-central Nebraska where fewer clouds will be present. Overall, a broad corridor of MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg and strong deep layer shear should extend across southern Nebraska into western Iowa just south of the warm front. Strengthening southerly 700-850 mb flow is expected through the afternoon, with a low-level jet around 40-50 kts across central Kansas into eastern Nebraska. By the afternoon, guidance suggests that supercells may develop near the stationary front/warm front in eastern Nebraska. Given the environment, these will be capable of large to very large hail (some 2-3 inches), damaging wind, and a few tornadoes (some strong). Through time, convection will likely cluster and grow upscale with a damaging wind threat continuing downstream into southeast SD, northwest IA and southwest MN through Sunday night.
Western KS to TX Panhandles
Forcing for ascent will be weaker with southern extent into western Kansas/western Oklahoma near the dryline. Soundings across these regions also indicate capping at the base of the EML, which may be difficult to overcome. Nonetheless, a few isolated supercells may develop along the dryline as the low-level jet increases through the evening. These will pose a risk for large to very large hail and damaging winds.
..Thornton.. 05/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Monday, May 18
Outlook Images
any severe 30%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, May 18 | 30% |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, May 19 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, May 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, May 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, May 22 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150901 SPC AC 150901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/MON
### DISCUSSION
Monday/Day 4
A severe weather outbreak will be possible from Monday afternoon into the evening and overnight period. On Monday, the western trough will take on a negative tilt before ejecting across the central Plains, with strong southwesterly flow aloft overspreading the region. This will result in strong lee cyclone development across western Kansas. A surface cold front will extend northward to a secondary surface low across the upper Midwest. A dryline will extend southward across portions of western Kansas into western Oklahoma. Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the cold front and further south along the dryline Monday afternoon and evening from Nebraska into central Kansas. Given the volatile air mass ahead of these features, with moderate to strong instability and strengthening deep layer shear, initial development will likely be supercellular. Initial supercells will pose risk of all hazards including large to very large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes. As the southwesterly low-level jet increases into the evening, large clockwise enhancement of low-level hodographs across portions of central Kansas into northern Oklahoma may lead to an increasing risk for strong to intense tornadoes. Additional thunderstorm development will spread in tandem with the cold front from the central Plains to the upper Midwest through the evening, with potential for more widespread damaging wind and a few tornadoes (some of which may be strong).
Tuesday/Day 5 to Thursday/Day 7
Severe potential is expected to continue D5/Tuesday as the cold front extends from the upper Midwest to southern Plains. Strong to moderate instability ahead of the front will continue to support severe storms from the northern part of the southern Plains northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Trends are for the front to shift eastward faster than originally expected, and as such probabilities were shifted eastward with this update. Strong to severe storms may extend further north into the northeast and Great Lakes Region.
On Wednesday and Thursday, the cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon and evening. However, uncertainty concerning the exact location of the front is substantial at this extended range.
..Thornton.. 05/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, May 19
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, May 18 | 30% |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, May 19 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, May 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, May 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, May 22 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150901 SPC AC 150901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/MON
### DISCUSSION
Monday/Day 4
A severe weather outbreak will be possible from Monday afternoon into the evening and overnight period. On Monday, the western trough will take on a negative tilt before ejecting across the central Plains, with strong southwesterly flow aloft overspreading the region. This will result in strong lee cyclone development across western Kansas. A surface cold front will extend northward to a secondary surface low across the upper Midwest. A dryline will extend southward across portions of western Kansas into western Oklahoma. Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the cold front and further south along the dryline Monday afternoon and evening from Nebraska into central Kansas. Given the volatile air mass ahead of these features, with moderate to strong instability and strengthening deep layer shear, initial development will likely be supercellular. Initial supercells will pose risk of all hazards including large to very large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes. As the southwesterly low-level jet increases into the evening, large clockwise enhancement of low-level hodographs across portions of central Kansas into northern Oklahoma may lead to an increasing risk for strong to intense tornadoes. Additional thunderstorm development will spread in tandem with the cold front from the central Plains to the upper Midwest through the evening, with potential for more widespread damaging wind and a few tornadoes (some of which may be strong).
Tuesday/Day 5 to Thursday/Day 7
Severe potential is expected to continue D5/Tuesday as the cold front extends from the upper Midwest to southern Plains. Strong to moderate instability ahead of the front will continue to support severe storms from the northern part of the southern Plains northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Trends are for the front to shift eastward faster than originally expected, and as such probabilities were shifted eastward with this update. Strong to severe storms may extend further north into the northeast and Great Lakes Region.
On Wednesday and Thursday, the cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon and evening. However, uncertainty concerning the exact location of the front is substantial at this extended range.
..Thornton.. 05/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, May 20
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, May 18 | 30% |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, May 19 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, May 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, May 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, May 22 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150901 SPC AC 150901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/MON
### DISCUSSION
Monday/Day 4
A severe weather outbreak will be possible from Monday afternoon into the evening and overnight period. On Monday, the western trough will take on a negative tilt before ejecting across the central Plains, with strong southwesterly flow aloft overspreading the region. This will result in strong lee cyclone development across western Kansas. A surface cold front will extend northward to a secondary surface low across the upper Midwest. A dryline will extend southward across portions of western Kansas into western Oklahoma. Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the cold front and further south along the dryline Monday afternoon and evening from Nebraska into central Kansas. Given the volatile air mass ahead of these features, with moderate to strong instability and strengthening deep layer shear, initial development will likely be supercellular. Initial supercells will pose risk of all hazards including large to very large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes. As the southwesterly low-level jet increases into the evening, large clockwise enhancement of low-level hodographs across portions of central Kansas into northern Oklahoma may lead to an increasing risk for strong to intense tornadoes. Additional thunderstorm development will spread in tandem with the cold front from the central Plains to the upper Midwest through the evening, with potential for more widespread damaging wind and a few tornadoes (some of which may be strong).
Tuesday/Day 5 to Thursday/Day 7
Severe potential is expected to continue D5/Tuesday as the cold front extends from the upper Midwest to southern Plains. Strong to moderate instability ahead of the front will continue to support severe storms from the northern part of the southern Plains northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Trends are for the front to shift eastward faster than originally expected, and as such probabilities were shifted eastward with this update. Strong to severe storms may extend further north into the northeast and Great Lakes Region.
On Wednesday and Thursday, the cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon and evening. However, uncertainty concerning the exact location of the front is substantial at this extended range.
..Thornton.. 05/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, May 21
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, May 18 | 30% |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, May 19 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, May 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, May 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, May 22 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150901 SPC AC 150901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/MON
### DISCUSSION
Monday/Day 4
A severe weather outbreak will be possible from Monday afternoon into the evening and overnight period. On Monday, the western trough will take on a negative tilt before ejecting across the central Plains, with strong southwesterly flow aloft overspreading the region. This will result in strong lee cyclone development across western Kansas. A surface cold front will extend northward to a secondary surface low across the upper Midwest. A dryline will extend southward across portions of western Kansas into western Oklahoma. Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the cold front and further south along the dryline Monday afternoon and evening from Nebraska into central Kansas. Given the volatile air mass ahead of these features, with moderate to strong instability and strengthening deep layer shear, initial development will likely be supercellular. Initial supercells will pose risk of all hazards including large to very large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes. As the southwesterly low-level jet increases into the evening, large clockwise enhancement of low-level hodographs across portions of central Kansas into northern Oklahoma may lead to an increasing risk for strong to intense tornadoes. Additional thunderstorm development will spread in tandem with the cold front from the central Plains to the upper Midwest through the evening, with potential for more widespread damaging wind and a few tornadoes (some of which may be strong).
Tuesday/Day 5 to Thursday/Day 7
Severe potential is expected to continue D5/Tuesday as the cold front extends from the upper Midwest to southern Plains. Strong to moderate instability ahead of the front will continue to support severe storms from the northern part of the southern Plains northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Trends are for the front to shift eastward faster than originally expected, and as such probabilities were shifted eastward with this update. Strong to severe storms may extend further north into the northeast and Great Lakes Region.
On Wednesday and Thursday, the cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon and evening. However, uncertainty concerning the exact location of the front is substantial at this extended range.
..Thornton.. 05/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, May 22
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, May 18 | 30% |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, May 19 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, May 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, May 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, May 22 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150901 SPC AC 150901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/MON
### DISCUSSION
Monday/Day 4
A severe weather outbreak will be possible from Monday afternoon into the evening and overnight period. On Monday, the western trough will take on a negative tilt before ejecting across the central Plains, with strong southwesterly flow aloft overspreading the region. This will result in strong lee cyclone development across western Kansas. A surface cold front will extend northward to a secondary surface low across the upper Midwest. A dryline will extend southward across portions of western Kansas into western Oklahoma. Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the cold front and further south along the dryline Monday afternoon and evening from Nebraska into central Kansas. Given the volatile air mass ahead of these features, with moderate to strong instability and strengthening deep layer shear, initial development will likely be supercellular. Initial supercells will pose risk of all hazards including large to very large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes. As the southwesterly low-level jet increases into the evening, large clockwise enhancement of low-level hodographs across portions of central Kansas into northern Oklahoma may lead to an increasing risk for strong to intense tornadoes. Additional thunderstorm development will spread in tandem with the cold front from the central Plains to the upper Midwest through the evening, with potential for more widespread damaging wind and a few tornadoes (some of which may be strong).
Tuesday/Day 5 to Thursday/Day 7
Severe potential is expected to continue D5/Tuesday as the cold front extends from the upper Midwest to southern Plains. Strong to moderate instability ahead of the front will continue to support severe storms from the northern part of the southern Plains northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Trends are for the front to shift eastward faster than originally expected, and as such probabilities were shifted eastward with this update. Strong to severe storms may extend further north into the northeast and Great Lakes Region.
On Wednesday and Thursday, the cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon and evening. However, uncertainty concerning the exact location of the front is substantial at this extended range.
..Thornton.. 05/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, May 16
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 30%
- WIND: 30%
- Sunday, May 17
- TORNADO: 10%
- HAIL: 30%
- WIND: 15%
- Monday, May 18
- ANY SEVERE: 30%
- Tuesday, May 19
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Wednesday, May 20
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, May 21
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, May 22
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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