Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, August 10
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible this afternoon and evening from northern Illinois eastward into Pennsylvania. Severe gusts and hail will also be possible from parts of the central and northern Plains into the Midwest, with scattered severe storms over southern Arizona.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 30%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 101600
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026
Valid 101630Z - 111200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF ILLINOIS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST…OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS…AND OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible this afternoon and evening from northern Illinois eastward into Pennsylvania. Severe gusts and hail will also be possible from parts of the central and northern Plains into the Midwest, with scattered severe storms over southern Arizona.
PA/NY/NJ
Multiple clusters and lines of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from western PA. So far, this activity has produced limited severe wind gusts due to weak low-level lapse rates. However, continued heating over central/eastern PA will eventually allow the storms to be more efficient wind-producers with locally damaging gusts expected. See MD #1894 for further details.
OH/WV
A secondary cluster of storms over central OH is tracking southeastward in a moderately sheared environment. Rapid heating is occurring to the southwest of this cluster, which should result in intensification by mid afternoon. Storms will likely spread into northern WV with a risk of damaging wind gusts and perhaps hail.
SD/MN/IA
A large reservoir of unstable air will reside across much of SD today, with MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg, steep lapse rates, and dewpoints in the upper 60s. A capping inversion should preclude sustained convection until after 00z when strengthening southerly low-level flow and warm advection will aid initiation. Supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds are expected, with eventual upscale organization into a bowing MCS possible through the evening/night.
CO/KS
Most model guidance shows the likelihood of scattered high-based thunderstorm development late this afternoon over northeast CO, spreading into northwest KS and southwest NE this evening. Cloud cover is somewhat limiting heating, but sufficient CAPE and winds aloft may promote a period of damaging wind potential later today.
AZ
Another round of evening thunderstorms is expected to initiate off the higher terrain of east-central AZ and spread westward toward the TUS/PHX metro areas. Parameters remain conditionally favorable for damaging winds in any sustained/organized clusters of storms that may develop.
..Hart/Weinman.. 08/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Tuesday, August 11
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts will be possible on Tuesday from parts of the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians in the afternoon and evening. Isolated severe wind gusts and hail will also be possible from parts of the central and northern Plains into the Midwest.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 100559
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts will be possible on Tuesday from parts of the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians in the afternoon and evening. Isolated severe wind gusts and hail will also be possible from parts of the central and northern Plains into the Midwest.
Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians
At mid-levels, west-northwesterly flow will remain in place on Tuesday from the northern Plains to the central Appalachians. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is forecast to be located from northern Illinois east-southeastward into far northern Kentucky. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F will result in moderate to strong instability by midday. Low-level convergence along the boundary will likely be the focus for convective initiation during the day. It appears that an intense line segment could develop and move east-southeastward along and near the frontal zone from mid afternoon to mid evening. However, there is some uncertainty concerning where the boundary from morning convection will be in the afternoon.
Forecast soundings along and to the south of the front from east-central Illinois into far northern Kentucky at 21Z have MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3500 J/kg range. Wind profiles along this west-northwest to east-southeast corridor have directional shear in the boundary layer with 40 to 50 knots of west-northwesterly flow in the mid-levels. Some of this zone could have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range along with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 200 m2/s2. This would support supercells with severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat. Some model forecasts, including the HRRR suggest that an organized cold pool will develop during the late afternoon. This scenario could result in a swath of wind damage across parts of the Ohio Valley.
Central and Northern Plains/Midwest
At mid-levels, rising heights and west-northwesterly flow will be in place over the north-central U.S. on Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front will move southeastward across the northern High Plains, as a low deepens across South Dakota. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the 60s and 70s F will contribute to moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Low-level convergence will aid convective initiation during the mid to late afternoon, with isolated storms moving east-southeastward from the northern Plains into the Midwest.
Across the moist airmass, MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range with 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 45 knot range. This will support supercells with isolated severe wind gusts and hail. However, the rising mid-level heights and lack of large-scale ascent could result in a more localized severe threat.
..Broyles.. 08/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Wednesday, August 12
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible Wednesday afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern High Plains. Isolated severe wind gusts will also be possible from parts of the mid Missouri Valley east-southeastward into the southern Appalachians.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 100730
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible Wednesday afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern High Plains. Isolated severe wind gusts will also be possible from parts of the mid Missouri Valley east-southeastward into the southern Appalachians.
Central and Northern Plains
West-northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place on Wednesday from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes. Within the flow, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move into the central and northern High plains during the afternoon. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southward in the central Plains, with a lee trough located in the High Plains. During the day, upslope flow will help low-level convergence to become maximized along the lee trough, which will the primary focus for convective initiation Wednesday afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to form near the trough and move eastward across the central and northern High Plains during the late afternoon and early evening.
Along the western edge of the moist airmass, surface dewpoints are forecast to be mostly in the 60s F, which should result in moderate instability by afternoon. Late afternoon forecast soundings from North Platte, Nebraska northward to east of Rapid City, South Dakota have 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 45 knot range with low to mid-level lapse rates near 8 C/km. This will support a supercell threat during the late afternoon and early evening. Supercells will be capable of severe wind gusts and isolated large hail.
Mid Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valley/Ohio Valley/Southern Appalachians
Mid-level northwesterly flow will be in place on Wednesday from the Mid Missouri Valley into the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a very moist airmass will also be in place over this same area. Surface dewpoints in the 70s F will contribute to moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible near outflow boundaries as low-level convergence becomes maximized in the afternoon. Across much of this moist and unstable airmass, moderate deep-layer shear will be in place supporting an isolated wind-damage threat. The wind-damage threat should be greatest in the late afternoon and early evening as low-level lapse rates become steep.
..Broyles.. 08/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Thursday, August 13
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, August 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, August 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, August 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, August 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, August 17 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100854 SPC AC 100854
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6
A mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward through the north-central U.S. on Thursday and into the Great Lakes region on Friday. At the surface, a moist axis is forecast to remain in place from the central Plains east-southeastward into the lower Ohio Valley. Moderate to strong instability along the moist axis will make isolated severe thunderstorms possible each afternoon and evening. Additionally, a severe threat may develop near mid-level shortwave troughs that are forecast to move through the northern Plains and Mid-Atlantic on Friday.
On Saturday, a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move through the Great Lakes region. Moderate to strong instability may be in place over much of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio by afternoon. Along the northern edge of the stronger instability, isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible from Lower Michigan eastward into the central Appalachians Saturday afternoon. Additional severe storms may develop along an axis of moderate instability over parts of the central Plains in the afternoon and evening.
Concerning the severe potential from Thursday to Saturday, considerable variance exists among the model solutions concerning the position of features, suggesting uncertainty is still too great to add a threat area.
Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8
From Sunday into Monday, a broad cyclonic flow pattern is forecast to develop over the northeastern U.S. A cold front is forecast to move southward across the central and southern Appalachians. This boundary would be the primary focus for convective development each afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the 70s F along with moderate to strong instability would likely support an isolated severe threat. However, considerable uncertainty exists concerning the timing of the front. For this reason, predictability is low at this extended range.
..Broyles.. 08/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, August 14
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, August 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, August 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, August 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, August 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, August 17 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100854 SPC AC 100854
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6
A mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward through the north-central U.S. on Thursday and into the Great Lakes region on Friday. At the surface, a moist axis is forecast to remain in place from the central Plains east-southeastward into the lower Ohio Valley. Moderate to strong instability along the moist axis will make isolated severe thunderstorms possible each afternoon and evening. Additionally, a severe threat may develop near mid-level shortwave troughs that are forecast to move through the northern Plains and Mid-Atlantic on Friday.
On Saturday, a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move through the Great Lakes region. Moderate to strong instability may be in place over much of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio by afternoon. Along the northern edge of the stronger instability, isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible from Lower Michigan eastward into the central Appalachians Saturday afternoon. Additional severe storms may develop along an axis of moderate instability over parts of the central Plains in the afternoon and evening.
Concerning the severe potential from Thursday to Saturday, considerable variance exists among the model solutions concerning the position of features, suggesting uncertainty is still too great to add a threat area.
Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8
From Sunday into Monday, a broad cyclonic flow pattern is forecast to develop over the northeastern U.S. A cold front is forecast to move southward across the central and southern Appalachians. This boundary would be the primary focus for convective development each afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the 70s F along with moderate to strong instability would likely support an isolated severe threat. However, considerable uncertainty exists concerning the timing of the front. For this reason, predictability is low at this extended range.
..Broyles.. 08/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, August 15
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, August 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, August 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, August 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, August 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, August 17 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100854 SPC AC 100854
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6
A mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward through the north-central U.S. on Thursday and into the Great Lakes region on Friday. At the surface, a moist axis is forecast to remain in place from the central Plains east-southeastward into the lower Ohio Valley. Moderate to strong instability along the moist axis will make isolated severe thunderstorms possible each afternoon and evening. Additionally, a severe threat may develop near mid-level shortwave troughs that are forecast to move through the northern Plains and Mid-Atlantic on Friday.
On Saturday, a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move through the Great Lakes region. Moderate to strong instability may be in place over much of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio by afternoon. Along the northern edge of the stronger instability, isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible from Lower Michigan eastward into the central Appalachians Saturday afternoon. Additional severe storms may develop along an axis of moderate instability over parts of the central Plains in the afternoon and evening.
Concerning the severe potential from Thursday to Saturday, considerable variance exists among the model solutions concerning the position of features, suggesting uncertainty is still too great to add a threat area.
Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8
From Sunday into Monday, a broad cyclonic flow pattern is forecast to develop over the northeastern U.S. A cold front is forecast to move southward across the central and southern Appalachians. This boundary would be the primary focus for convective development each afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the 70s F along with moderate to strong instability would likely support an isolated severe threat. However, considerable uncertainty exists concerning the timing of the front. For this reason, predictability is low at this extended range.
..Broyles.. 08/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, August 16
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, August 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, August 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, August 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, August 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, August 17 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100854 SPC AC 100854
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6
A mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward through the north-central U.S. on Thursday and into the Great Lakes region on Friday. At the surface, a moist axis is forecast to remain in place from the central Plains east-southeastward into the lower Ohio Valley. Moderate to strong instability along the moist axis will make isolated severe thunderstorms possible each afternoon and evening. Additionally, a severe threat may develop near mid-level shortwave troughs that are forecast to move through the northern Plains and Mid-Atlantic on Friday.
On Saturday, a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move through the Great Lakes region. Moderate to strong instability may be in place over much of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio by afternoon. Along the northern edge of the stronger instability, isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible from Lower Michigan eastward into the central Appalachians Saturday afternoon. Additional severe storms may develop along an axis of moderate instability over parts of the central Plains in the afternoon and evening.
Concerning the severe potential from Thursday to Saturday, considerable variance exists among the model solutions concerning the position of features, suggesting uncertainty is still too great to add a threat area.
Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8
From Sunday into Monday, a broad cyclonic flow pattern is forecast to develop over the northeastern U.S. A cold front is forecast to move southward across the central and southern Appalachians. This boundary would be the primary focus for convective development each afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the 70s F along with moderate to strong instability would likely support an isolated severe threat. However, considerable uncertainty exists concerning the timing of the front. For this reason, predictability is low at this extended range.
..Broyles.. 08/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, August 17
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, August 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, August 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, August 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, August 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, August 17 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100854 SPC AC 100854
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6
A mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward through the north-central U.S. on Thursday and into the Great Lakes region on Friday. At the surface, a moist axis is forecast to remain in place from the central Plains east-southeastward into the lower Ohio Valley. Moderate to strong instability along the moist axis will make isolated severe thunderstorms possible each afternoon and evening. Additionally, a severe threat may develop near mid-level shortwave troughs that are forecast to move through the northern Plains and Mid-Atlantic on Friday.
On Saturday, a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move through the Great Lakes region. Moderate to strong instability may be in place over much of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio by afternoon. Along the northern edge of the stronger instability, isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible from Lower Michigan eastward into the central Appalachians Saturday afternoon. Additional severe storms may develop along an axis of moderate instability over parts of the central Plains in the afternoon and evening.
Concerning the severe potential from Thursday to Saturday, considerable variance exists among the model solutions concerning the position of features, suggesting uncertainty is still too great to add a threat area.
Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8
From Sunday into Monday, a broad cyclonic flow pattern is forecast to develop over the northeastern U.S. A cold front is forecast to move southward across the central and southern Appalachians. This boundary would be the primary focus for convective development each afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the 70s F along with moderate to strong instability would likely support an isolated severe threat. However, considerable uncertainty exists concerning the timing of the front. For this reason, predictability is low at this extended range.
..Broyles.. 08/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, August 10
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 30%
- Tuesday, August 11
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Wednesday, August 12
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Thursday, August 13
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, August 14
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, August 15
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, August 16
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, August 17
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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