Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, October 4
Outlook Summary
A few rotating thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the northern Gulf Coast today, otherwise severe thunderstorms are not expected.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 040547
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
### SUMMARY
A few rotating thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the northern Gulf Coast today, otherwise severe thunderstorms are not expected.
Synopsis
A midlevel shortwave trough moving across the Great Lakes this morning will help carve out/reinforce a larger-scale trough across the eastern US. At the same time, a midlevel anticyclone will remain in place across the western US. This pattern will favor northwesterly flow across much of the eastern half of the country, in turn supporting reinforcing shots of cooler air.
At the surface, weak cyclogenesis should support the development of a cyclone across the far northern Gulf Coast or just inland across southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. This weak low will slowly move east during the day.
### Portions of the Florida Panhandle and the Adjacent Coastal Waters
A stalled surface front will be draped across the Southeast today, with a very moist airmass in place along and south of it. Forecast soundings across the area indicate nearly moist thermodynamic profiles from surface to the tropopause, with the 20261004 00 UTC HREF having mean precipitable water values around 2.5” across most of the Florida Panhandle. Given these moist vertical profiles, conditional instability will be low today, with mean MUCAPE values generally 500 J/kg or less.
Despite the meager instability, one consequence of the moist vertical profiles will be that LCL heights will be very low – generally at or below 500 meters. At the same time, forecast soundings in areas to the east of the surface low show modest wind curvature in the lowest 3 km. Thus, despite the meager instability, forced convective showers/thunderstorms will have the potential to exhibit brief, transient low-level circulations, especially over coastal areas where surface friction is reduced. The threat should slowly move east during the day as the surface low slowly moves east.
..Marsh/Wendt.. 10/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Monday, October 5
Outlook Summary
Severe storms are unlikely across the USA on Monday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 040521
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe storms are unlikely across the USA on Monday.
Synopsis
An upper low will continue to deepen as it moves eastward across Quebec on Monday, with the speed max at the base of the trough sweeping across the Northeast. Behind this trough, northwest flow will persist from the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes, with a weak midlevel trough moving across the Great Basin.
At the surface, a large area of high pressure will provide stable conditions to much of the central and eastern States, with the more substantial low-level moisture and instability relegated to the Gulf Coast area. Scattered thunderstorms will thus be possible along the northern Gulf Coast, and across much of Florida, though severe storms are unlikely.
Elsewhere, sporadic lightning flashes may occur over parts of southern CO, and into parts of NV where cool air aloft will steepen lapse rates. Instability will be weak, as will low-level wind fields. A few strong gusts cannot be ruled out due to the deeply mixed boundary layer.
..Jewell.. 10/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Tuesday, October 6
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, October 6 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, October 7 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, October 8 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, October 9 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, October 10 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030740 SPC AC 030740
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2026
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe weather potential is forecast to be low across the CONUS through the period.
Northwest flow aloft is forecast to persist from the northern Rockies & Plains eastward into the northeastern states. Periodic embedded waves and associated frontal intrusions will maintain a relatively stable air mass across the same areas, while the more substantial low-level moisture and instability remain largely over the Gulf of America and western Atlantic Ocean.
Some low-end thunderstorm potential will be possible late Thur/D6 into Fri/D7 over the Upper Midwest, with primarily late day/evening elevated thunderstorms possible as the large-scale trough over eastern Canada starts to lift, and low-level warm advection occurs over the northern Plains.
..Jewell.. 10/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, October 7
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, October 6 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, October 7 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, October 8 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, October 9 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, October 10 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030740 SPC AC 030740
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2026
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe weather potential is forecast to be low across the CONUS through the period.
Northwest flow aloft is forecast to persist from the northern Rockies & Plains eastward into the northeastern states. Periodic embedded waves and associated frontal intrusions will maintain a relatively stable air mass across the same areas, while the more substantial low-level moisture and instability remain largely over the Gulf of America and western Atlantic Ocean.
Some low-end thunderstorm potential will be possible late Thur/D6 into Fri/D7 over the Upper Midwest, with primarily late day/evening elevated thunderstorms possible as the large-scale trough over eastern Canada starts to lift, and low-level warm advection occurs over the northern Plains.
..Jewell.. 10/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, October 8
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, October 6 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, October 7 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, October 8 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, October 9 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, October 10 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030740 SPC AC 030740
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2026
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe weather potential is forecast to be low across the CONUS through the period.
Northwest flow aloft is forecast to persist from the northern Rockies & Plains eastward into the northeastern states. Periodic embedded waves and associated frontal intrusions will maintain a relatively stable air mass across the same areas, while the more substantial low-level moisture and instability remain largely over the Gulf of America and western Atlantic Ocean.
Some low-end thunderstorm potential will be possible late Thur/D6 into Fri/D7 over the Upper Midwest, with primarily late day/evening elevated thunderstorms possible as the large-scale trough over eastern Canada starts to lift, and low-level warm advection occurs over the northern Plains.
..Jewell.. 10/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, October 9
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, October 6 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, October 7 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, October 8 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, October 9 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, October 10 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030740 SPC AC 030740
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2026
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe weather potential is forecast to be low across the CONUS through the period.
Northwest flow aloft is forecast to persist from the northern Rockies & Plains eastward into the northeastern states. Periodic embedded waves and associated frontal intrusions will maintain a relatively stable air mass across the same areas, while the more substantial low-level moisture and instability remain largely over the Gulf of America and western Atlantic Ocean.
Some low-end thunderstorm potential will be possible late Thur/D6 into Fri/D7 over the Upper Midwest, with primarily late day/evening elevated thunderstorms possible as the large-scale trough over eastern Canada starts to lift, and low-level warm advection occurs over the northern Plains.
..Jewell.. 10/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, October 10
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, October 6 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, October 7 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, October 8 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, October 9 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, October 10 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030740 SPC AC 030740
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2026
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe weather potential is forecast to be low across the CONUS through the period.
Northwest flow aloft is forecast to persist from the northern Rockies & Plains eastward into the northeastern states. Periodic embedded waves and associated frontal intrusions will maintain a relatively stable air mass across the same areas, while the more substantial low-level moisture and instability remain largely over the Gulf of America and western Atlantic Ocean.
Some low-end thunderstorm potential will be possible late Thur/D6 into Fri/D7 over the Upper Midwest, with primarily late day/evening elevated thunderstorms possible as the large-scale trough over eastern Canada starts to lift, and low-level warm advection occurs over the northern Plains.
..Jewell.. 10/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, October 4
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Monday, October 5
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, October 6
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, October 7
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, October 8
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, October 9
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, October 10
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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