Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, October 2
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorm potential is low today and tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 021236
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Fri Oct 02 2026
Valid 021300Z - 031200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorm potential is low today and tonight.
Mid-Atlantic States/Cumberland Plateau
A progressive stream of westerlies will continue to reside over the northern third of the CONUS through tonight. An extensive northeast/southwest-oriented cold front will continue east-southeastward, reaching the coastal Northeast/Mid-Atlantic by this evening, while otherwise crossing the Tennessee Valley and lower Mississippi Valley. Scattered showers/thunderstorms will accompany the front, while also being common across coastal areas of the Gulf Coast and Southeast.
As the cold front approaches the coastal Mid-Atlantic/Delmarva later this evening, semi-strong wind profiles (35+ kt effective shear) will exist regionally, and to a lesser extent southwestward toward the Appalachians and Cumberland Plateau. A couple of stronger storms with gusty winds could materialize this afternoon near/ahead of the front in these regions provided sufficient insolation/modest destabilization. However, moist-profile/subsidence-related poor lapse rates aloft should preclude organized severe storms.
..Guyer/Dean.. 10/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Saturday, October 3
Outlook Summary
No severe thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. on Saturday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 020358
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 PM CDT Thu Oct 01 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
No severe thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. on Saturday.
Synopsis
On Saturday, a broad upper trough will develop into Ontario, with a leading speed max moving from the northern Plains across the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, an upper high will be centered over the Great Basin, with relatively high midlevel heights extending into the Southeast.
At the surface, a high pressure center will move from MI into the Northeast, with the surface ridge extending southwestward into the southern High Plains. Northeasterly surface winds will thus relegate the more robust moisture/dewpoints to the Gulf Coast states.
Isolated thunderstorms may develop during the day over the Upper Midwest in association with the shortwave trough, as temperatures aloft cool. Moisture and instability will be minimal, but weak elevated instability should support at least isolated lightning flashes.
Otherwise, scattered thunderstorms will affect much of the Gulf Coast and extending into the Carolinas as the air mass will become marginally unstable with heating. Weak shear will further preclude severe possibilities.
..Jewell.. 10/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Sunday, October 4
Outlook Summary
Severe storms are not forecast for Sunday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 020551
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Fri Oct 02 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe storms are not forecast for Sunday.
Synopsis
A large-scale upper trough will continue to deepen Sunday as the parent low moves out of Ontario and into western Quebec. A leading shortwave trough will quickly move from the Great Lakes into the Northeast, with an attendant cold front. However, little if any instability will be present to support thunderstorms.
Behind the leading wave, a secondary and stronger backside speed max will nose into the Upper Great Lakes late in the day, with another surface high building across much of the Midwest.
Scattered thunderstorms will remain possible from the TX Coast to FL, where low-level moisture and instability (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) will exist. Weak shear and warm temperatures aloft will not favor severe storms.
..Jewell.. 10/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Monday, October 5
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, October 5 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, October 6 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, October 7 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, October 8 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, October 9 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020817 SPC AC 020817
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 AM CDT Fri Oct 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe storm potential from Monday/D4 to Friday/D8 is forecast to be minimal.
A deep upper trough will move across eastern Canada and the northeastern USA Mon/D4 into Tue/D5, with a cold front already offshore and high pressure building in from the west. Behind the ejecting upper trough, moderate northwest flow aloft will persist across the northern tier of states, with some trough amplification possible over the Great Lakes Wed/D6 into Fri/D8. That said, a minimally unstable air mass will exist over most of the CONUS, with little severe thunderstorm potential. A few stronger storms cannot be ruled out around Thu/D7 over the upper Midwest beneath the northwest flow regime, but this low-predictability scenario will depend heavily on enough moisture returning to the region. As such, no areas are currently forecast.
..Jewell.. 10/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, October 6
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, October 5 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, October 6 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, October 7 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, October 8 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, October 9 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020817 SPC AC 020817
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 AM CDT Fri Oct 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe storm potential from Monday/D4 to Friday/D8 is forecast to be minimal.
A deep upper trough will move across eastern Canada and the northeastern USA Mon/D4 into Tue/D5, with a cold front already offshore and high pressure building in from the west. Behind the ejecting upper trough, moderate northwest flow aloft will persist across the northern tier of states, with some trough amplification possible over the Great Lakes Wed/D6 into Fri/D8. That said, a minimally unstable air mass will exist over most of the CONUS, with little severe thunderstorm potential. A few stronger storms cannot be ruled out around Thu/D7 over the upper Midwest beneath the northwest flow regime, but this low-predictability scenario will depend heavily on enough moisture returning to the region. As such, no areas are currently forecast.
..Jewell.. 10/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, October 7
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, October 5 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, October 6 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, October 7 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, October 8 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, October 9 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020817 SPC AC 020817
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 AM CDT Fri Oct 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe storm potential from Monday/D4 to Friday/D8 is forecast to be minimal.
A deep upper trough will move across eastern Canada and the northeastern USA Mon/D4 into Tue/D5, with a cold front already offshore and high pressure building in from the west. Behind the ejecting upper trough, moderate northwest flow aloft will persist across the northern tier of states, with some trough amplification possible over the Great Lakes Wed/D6 into Fri/D8. That said, a minimally unstable air mass will exist over most of the CONUS, with little severe thunderstorm potential. A few stronger storms cannot be ruled out around Thu/D7 over the upper Midwest beneath the northwest flow regime, but this low-predictability scenario will depend heavily on enough moisture returning to the region. As such, no areas are currently forecast.
..Jewell.. 10/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, October 8
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, October 5 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, October 6 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, October 7 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, October 8 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, October 9 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020817 SPC AC 020817
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 AM CDT Fri Oct 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe storm potential from Monday/D4 to Friday/D8 is forecast to be minimal.
A deep upper trough will move across eastern Canada and the northeastern USA Mon/D4 into Tue/D5, with a cold front already offshore and high pressure building in from the west. Behind the ejecting upper trough, moderate northwest flow aloft will persist across the northern tier of states, with some trough amplification possible over the Great Lakes Wed/D6 into Fri/D8. That said, a minimally unstable air mass will exist over most of the CONUS, with little severe thunderstorm potential. A few stronger storms cannot be ruled out around Thu/D7 over the upper Midwest beneath the northwest flow regime, but this low-predictability scenario will depend heavily on enough moisture returning to the region. As such, no areas are currently forecast.
..Jewell.. 10/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, October 9
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, October 5 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, October 6 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, October 7 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, October 8 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, October 9 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020817 SPC AC 020817
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 AM CDT Fri Oct 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe storm potential from Monday/D4 to Friday/D8 is forecast to be minimal.
A deep upper trough will move across eastern Canada and the northeastern USA Mon/D4 into Tue/D5, with a cold front already offshore and high pressure building in from the west. Behind the ejecting upper trough, moderate northwest flow aloft will persist across the northern tier of states, with some trough amplification possible over the Great Lakes Wed/D6 into Fri/D8. That said, a minimally unstable air mass will exist over most of the CONUS, with little severe thunderstorm potential. A few stronger storms cannot be ruled out around Thu/D7 over the upper Midwest beneath the northwest flow regime, but this low-predictability scenario will depend heavily on enough moisture returning to the region. As such, no areas are currently forecast.
..Jewell.. 10/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, October 2
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Saturday, October 3
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Sunday, October 4
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Monday, October 5
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, October 6
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, October 7
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, October 8
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, October 9
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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