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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Monday, May 11

Outlook Summary

Isolated severe storms with locally damaging wind gusts and hail are possible this afternoon along the Carolina and Florida Atlantic coasts as well as portions of the lower Mississippi Valley.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 111946

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Valid 112000Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY…THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST…AND THE CAROLINA COAST

### SUMMARY

Isolated severe storms with locally damaging wind gusts and hail are possible this afternoon along the Carolina and Florida Atlantic coasts as well as portions of the lower Mississippi Valley.

20z Update

The previous outlook largely remains on track with only minor adjustments made. Risk probabilities were removed across eastern GA where latest satellite imagery shows limited vertical development within a broad cumulus field, likely owing to poor ascent given very weak low-level convergence along a diffuse frontal zone. Latest HRRR/RRFS guidance depicts negligible convective signals across this region through tonight, suggesting the potential for severe thunderstorms is low. Severe wind probabilities were similarly trimmed across portions of southern LA where cold outflow associated with a residual MCV over the northern Gulf is spreading northward. Ahead of this boundary, temperatures warming into the low 80s within a moist air mass may still support convection sufficiently deep for a localized downburst concern (see MCD #706). Elsewhere, the previous forecast (below) remains on track.

..Moore.. 05/11/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026/

Synopsis

Upper pattern across the CONUS this morning consists of western ridging and eastern troughing. A pair of shortwave troughs are embedded within the parent trough, one moving through the middle OH Valley and the other farther south across TX. A convectively generated vorticity maximum moving across the western Gulf precedes the TX shortwave. Farther west, a shortwave trough is moving through the northern periphery of the upper ridging over northern MT and adjacent southern Saskatchewan.

Recent surface analysis places a low over the eastern NC/SC border vicinity, with a cold front extending southwestward through the Southeast and southern AL through the far western Gulf into Deep South TX. Another low exists farther northwest over southern Saskatchewan, with a cold front extending south-southwestward from this low across eastern into south-central MT.

Eastern SC/Far Southern NC

Regional radar imagery shows isolated thunderstorms currently ongoing near the surface low over the eastern NC/SC border vicinity. A modest increase in buoyancy is anticipated ahead of these storms over the next few hours. This buoyancy coupled with strong shear could result in a few bowing segments capable of damaging gusts. Additional isolated thunderstorm development is anticipated late this afternoon as the weak cold front moves eastward across SC. Moderate buoyancy and shear will support the potential for a few more robust/organized updrafts capable of isolated hail and/or damaging gusts.

Eastern FL

Warm/moist conditions are expected today over the FL Peninsula, with temperatures over the interior warming into the 90s. Deep westerly flow will focus convergence along the east-coast sea-breeze, leading to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Sufficient deep-layer vertical shear may result in isolated strong-severe storms producing gusty/damaging winds and hail.

Northern/eastern ND into eastern SD

Despite limited low-level moisture, modest buoyancy may develop late this afternoon/early this evening amid cooling mid-level temperatures and increasing mid-level moisture. This buoyancy will develop atop a deeply mixed boundary layer, supporting the potential for strong gusts if any updrafts can deepen/mature. Given the weak and elevated nature of the buoyancy, developing a mature updraft capable of lightning will be difficult and the current expectation is for most of this activity to be shallow and non-lightning producing. That being said, gusty surface winds are possible with any convection does develop atop the deeply mixed boundary layer.

Coastal LA/MS/AL

The convectively generated shortwave trough over the western Gulf mentioned in the synopsis (and associated surface low) are expected to progress eastward throughout the day, while the stronger shortwave trough back across TX also progress east-southeastward. Easterly/southeasterly low-level flow will be maintained north of the Gulf low, increasing low-level convergence along the slow-moving frontal zone. This convergence will be augmented by ascent attendant to the TX shortwave, with numerous showers and thunderstorms likely. Poor lapse rates will limit buoyancy, although moderate deep-layer shear could support a few deeper, more organized updrafts. Primary risk over this area is heavy rain (as noted in the WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook), but a few water-loaded downbursts capable of wind damage are possible as well.

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, May 12

Outlook Summary

Isolated severe storms with strong wind gusts and hail will be possible on Tuesday from parts of southeast Kansas and far northeastern Oklahoma northeastward into northern Illinois, northwest Indiana and far southeast Wisconsin. Additional storms capable of damaging winds will be possible across the eastern Florida peninsula.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 111729

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND EXTREME NORTHERN OKLAHOMA NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND WESTERN INDIANA AS WELL AS ACROSS EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA

### SUMMARY

Isolated severe storms with strong wind gusts and hail will be possible on Tuesday from parts of southeast Kansas and far northeastern Oklahoma northeastward into northern Illinois, northwest Indiana and far southeast Wisconsin. Additional storms capable of damaging winds will be possible across the eastern Florida peninsula.

Overview

The midlevel pattern will further amplify on Tuesday with a negatively tilted tough moving onshore in the Pacific northwest. This trough will aid the amplification of a downstream ridge over the Rockies, and the amplification of this ridge will support the subsequent downstream amplification of a trough over the eastern US. Embedded within the eastern US trough, a closed midlevel low will migrate southeast from Canada at the start of the period to being over the Upper Great Lakes by the end. At the same time, a weak midlevel vorticity maximum will weaken as it moves east across the northern Gulf Coast and the Florida Peninsula as it is absorbed into the larger scale longwave trough.

At the surface, a remnant cold front will continue slowly sagging south across the Florida Peninsula as a weak low/associated MCS moves across the state from west to east. Farther north and west, another low will move east from the Northern Plains across central Wisconsin into Lower Michigan. As this occurs, strengthening lower-tropospheric northerly flow across the central US will push a cold front south across the central US.

### Southeast Kansas/Northern Oklahoma into Southern Wisconsin and Northwest Indiana

Southerly low-level flow will attempt to transport Gulf moisture northward into the Central Plains northeast into the Upper Great Lakes during the morning and early afternoon. This will occur along the western periphery of an eastern US anticyclone and ahead of south/southeast moving cold front. Atop this moisture return, large-scale subsidence associated with the eastern portions of the midlevel ridge across the Rockies will support warming lower tropospheric temperatures. These warm low level temperatures will provide a cap across the central US which should inhibit thunderstorm development for much of the day and promote uninterrupted northward moisture advection. The result will be surface dewpoints rising into perhaps the low 50Fs as far north as southern Wisconsin by early afternoon.

As diurnal heating warms this modified Gulf airmass, MUCAPE values will struggle to increase to around 1250 J/kg across the southern Central Plains to around 250 J/kg across Wisconsin owing to poor lapse rates from the warm low-to-midlevel temperatures. That said, at least isolated thunderstorms should develop across northern Illinois/southern Wisconsin to the south of the surface low, where surface convergence is greatest along the advancing front. As the eastern US midlevel trough amplifies, the associated midlevel jet will strengthen during the afternoon and evening across the Central Plains. This kinematic profile will support at least a marginal wind threat with any sustained thunderstorm.

To the south and west, slightly better low level moisture will support greater instability, but warmer temperatures aloft and weakening surface convergence will potentially limit thunderstorm coverage. However, a marginal wind and hail threat will be possible with any sustained thunderstorm.

### Eastern Florida Peninsula

Numerous thunderstorms are likely during the afternoon and evening associated with the aforementioned sagging front and midlevel wave moving across the region. High precipitable water values, long hodographs within the cloud layer, and tall, skinny buoyancy profiles will support the potential for a couple of wet damaging downbursts with the strongest cores.

### Interior Oregon

During the late afternoon and overnight a vigorous, negatively tilted midlevel trough will move into the area. Although low levels will remain very dry, increasing midlevel moisture and midlevel instability may be sufficient for a couple of thunderstorms. A very dry sub-cloud layer and strong 700-500 millibar flow may support a couple of isolated damaging wind gusts should thunderstorms develop. Confidence in this scenario is too low to warrant unconditional wind probabilities at this time.

..Marsh.. 05/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, May 13

Outlook Summary

Isolated severe storms will be possible on Wednesday across the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians as well as portions of western and central Montana.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 111908

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN MONTANA

### SUMMARY

Isolated severe storms will be possible on Wednesday across the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians as well as portions of western and central Montana.

Overview

An amplified, yet progressive, midlevel pattern will persist on Wednesday, with a shortwave trough moving across the northern Rockies, an amplified ridge across the central US, and an amplified longwave trough across the East. Embedded within the eastern longwave trough, a shortwave trough will quickly pivot through the basal region of the longwave trough, taking on a negative tilt as it approaches the Mid-Atlantic Coast by the end of the forecast period.

At the surface, a low across Lower Michigan will move east across the Great Lakes into northern New York and weaken as a new low develops farther south along the front across the Mid-Atlantic Region. As the initial low moves east, a surface front will also move east across the Ohio Valley and approach the Mid-Atlantic region by the end of the forecast period. Farther west, ahead of the midlevel shortwave trough moving across the northern Rockies, lee troughing will develop across the High Plains, with low-level moisture beginning to return northward into the Central Plains.

### Ohio Valley and the Central Appalachians

A dry airmass will be in place across the region at the start of the forecast period in the wake of a cool, dry anticyclone from the day before. As the anticyclone moves east off the Atlantic Coast, modest moisture advection will develop during the late morning into early afternoon. The 20260511/12Z guidance suite shows varying solutions regarding the depth and quality of the moisture return, with surface dewpoints ranging from the upper-40Fs in the drier solutions to perhaps 60F in the more moist solutions.

The depth and quality of the low level moisture will have an impact on the resulting degree of instability and thunderstorm potential/coverage. That said, the degree of forcing along the surface front should support at least a few thunderstorms despite instability generally around 500-1000 J/kg or less. The overall kinematic profiles would support strong, gusty winds with any thunderstorm that can sustain itself.

### West-central Montana into Central Montana

A negatively tilted shortwave trough will move across the area during the forecast period. Despite very dry low levels initially, increasing midlevel moisture and steep lapse rates may support a few hundred joules per kilogram of MUCAPE during the late afternoon and evening. As strong deep-layer ascent overspreads this environment a few high-based thunderstorms may develop before the low-levels moisten. Strong midlevel flow and a dry sub-cloud layer will support at least a marginal threat for damaging wind gusts. One potential negative for damaging wind gusts will be widespread cloud cover associated with the increasing midlevel moisture that inhibits destabilization. However, even in this scenario, gradient winds will still pose a threat for damaging winds with any forced convection.

..Marsh.. 05/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Thursday, May 14

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110818 SPC AC 110818

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6

At mid-levels, a shortwave ridge is forecast to pass eastward through the north-central U.S. on Thursday. A shortwave trough is forecast to move into the Great Plains, with moisture and instability located in the central Plains. Although most of the airmass is forecast to be capped during the day, a few storms with an isolated severe threat will be possible in areas that heat up the most.

On Friday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the Great Plains, as a moisture and instability advects northeastward into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible within this airmass in the afternoon and evening. Hail and isolated severe gusts would be the primary threats.

By Saturday, a wide corridor of moderate instability is forecast to be in place over the Great Plains. A shortwave trough is forecast to move into the central U.S. during the afternoon. Ahead of the shortwave, scattered thunderstorms will be possible from north Texas northward into Nebraska. Along the western edge of the instability corridor, steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate deep-layer shear are forecast. The environment could support large hail, damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat in the southern and central Plains where instability, shear and lift are forecast to become maximized.

Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8

On Sunday, mid-level flow is forecast to be southwesterly over the central U.S., as a shortwave trough moves into the Great Lakes. Another shortwave trough is forecast to move into the northern High Plains. Further south in the southern and central Plains, moderate to strong instability is forecast to be in place by midday. Thunderstorm development is expected over parts of this unstable airmass in the afternoon and evening. Although uncertainty exists concerning the location of the greatest severe threat, some solutions suggest potential for a large complex of storms from eastern Kansas into Missouri. At this time, too much uncertainty exists for the addition of a severe threat area.

On Monday, a front is forecast to advance southeastward across the central U.S. Ahead of this front, isolated severe storms will be possible near an axis of instability in the afternoon and evening. However, model spread is relatively large concerning the timing of features at this extended range.

..Broyles.. 05/11/2026

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Outlook for Friday, May 15

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110818 SPC AC 110818

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6

At mid-levels, a shortwave ridge is forecast to pass eastward through the north-central U.S. on Thursday. A shortwave trough is forecast to move into the Great Plains, with moisture and instability located in the central Plains. Although most of the airmass is forecast to be capped during the day, a few storms with an isolated severe threat will be possible in areas that heat up the most.

On Friday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the Great Plains, as a moisture and instability advects northeastward into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible within this airmass in the afternoon and evening. Hail and isolated severe gusts would be the primary threats.

By Saturday, a wide corridor of moderate instability is forecast to be in place over the Great Plains. A shortwave trough is forecast to move into the central U.S. during the afternoon. Ahead of the shortwave, scattered thunderstorms will be possible from north Texas northward into Nebraska. Along the western edge of the instability corridor, steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate deep-layer shear are forecast. The environment could support large hail, damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat in the southern and central Plains where instability, shear and lift are forecast to become maximized.

Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8

On Sunday, mid-level flow is forecast to be southwesterly over the central U.S., as a shortwave trough moves into the Great Lakes. Another shortwave trough is forecast to move into the northern High Plains. Further south in the southern and central Plains, moderate to strong instability is forecast to be in place by midday. Thunderstorm development is expected over parts of this unstable airmass in the afternoon and evening. Although uncertainty exists concerning the location of the greatest severe threat, some solutions suggest potential for a large complex of storms from eastern Kansas into Missouri. At this time, too much uncertainty exists for the addition of a severe threat area.

On Monday, a front is forecast to advance southeastward across the central U.S. Ahead of this front, isolated severe storms will be possible near an axis of instability in the afternoon and evening. However, model spread is relatively large concerning the timing of features at this extended range.

..Broyles.. 05/11/2026

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Outlook for Saturday, May 16

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110818 SPC AC 110818

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6

At mid-levels, a shortwave ridge is forecast to pass eastward through the north-central U.S. on Thursday. A shortwave trough is forecast to move into the Great Plains, with moisture and instability located in the central Plains. Although most of the airmass is forecast to be capped during the day, a few storms with an isolated severe threat will be possible in areas that heat up the most.

On Friday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the Great Plains, as a moisture and instability advects northeastward into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible within this airmass in the afternoon and evening. Hail and isolated severe gusts would be the primary threats.

By Saturday, a wide corridor of moderate instability is forecast to be in place over the Great Plains. A shortwave trough is forecast to move into the central U.S. during the afternoon. Ahead of the shortwave, scattered thunderstorms will be possible from north Texas northward into Nebraska. Along the western edge of the instability corridor, steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate deep-layer shear are forecast. The environment could support large hail, damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat in the southern and central Plains where instability, shear and lift are forecast to become maximized.

Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8

On Sunday, mid-level flow is forecast to be southwesterly over the central U.S., as a shortwave trough moves into the Great Lakes. Another shortwave trough is forecast to move into the northern High Plains. Further south in the southern and central Plains, moderate to strong instability is forecast to be in place by midday. Thunderstorm development is expected over parts of this unstable airmass in the afternoon and evening. Although uncertainty exists concerning the location of the greatest severe threat, some solutions suggest potential for a large complex of storms from eastern Kansas into Missouri. At this time, too much uncertainty exists for the addition of a severe threat area.

On Monday, a front is forecast to advance southeastward across the central U.S. Ahead of this front, isolated severe storms will be possible near an axis of instability in the afternoon and evening. However, model spread is relatively large concerning the timing of features at this extended range.

..Broyles.. 05/11/2026

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Outlook for Sunday, May 17

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110818 SPC AC 110818

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6

At mid-levels, a shortwave ridge is forecast to pass eastward through the north-central U.S. on Thursday. A shortwave trough is forecast to move into the Great Plains, with moisture and instability located in the central Plains. Although most of the airmass is forecast to be capped during the day, a few storms with an isolated severe threat will be possible in areas that heat up the most.

On Friday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the Great Plains, as a moisture and instability advects northeastward into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible within this airmass in the afternoon and evening. Hail and isolated severe gusts would be the primary threats.

By Saturday, a wide corridor of moderate instability is forecast to be in place over the Great Plains. A shortwave trough is forecast to move into the central U.S. during the afternoon. Ahead of the shortwave, scattered thunderstorms will be possible from north Texas northward into Nebraska. Along the western edge of the instability corridor, steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate deep-layer shear are forecast. The environment could support large hail, damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat in the southern and central Plains where instability, shear and lift are forecast to become maximized.

Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8

On Sunday, mid-level flow is forecast to be southwesterly over the central U.S., as a shortwave trough moves into the Great Lakes. Another shortwave trough is forecast to move into the northern High Plains. Further south in the southern and central Plains, moderate to strong instability is forecast to be in place by midday. Thunderstorm development is expected over parts of this unstable airmass in the afternoon and evening. Although uncertainty exists concerning the location of the greatest severe threat, some solutions suggest potential for a large complex of storms from eastern Kansas into Missouri. At this time, too much uncertainty exists for the addition of a severe threat area.

On Monday, a front is forecast to advance southeastward across the central U.S. Ahead of this front, isolated severe storms will be possible near an axis of instability in the afternoon and evening. However, model spread is relatively large concerning the timing of features at this extended range.

..Broyles.. 05/11/2026

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Outlook for Monday, May 18

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110818 SPC AC 110818

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6

At mid-levels, a shortwave ridge is forecast to pass eastward through the north-central U.S. on Thursday. A shortwave trough is forecast to move into the Great Plains, with moisture and instability located in the central Plains. Although most of the airmass is forecast to be capped during the day, a few storms with an isolated severe threat will be possible in areas that heat up the most.

On Friday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the Great Plains, as a moisture and instability advects northeastward into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible within this airmass in the afternoon and evening. Hail and isolated severe gusts would be the primary threats.

By Saturday, a wide corridor of moderate instability is forecast to be in place over the Great Plains. A shortwave trough is forecast to move into the central U.S. during the afternoon. Ahead of the shortwave, scattered thunderstorms will be possible from north Texas northward into Nebraska. Along the western edge of the instability corridor, steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate deep-layer shear are forecast. The environment could support large hail, damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat in the southern and central Plains where instability, shear and lift are forecast to become maximized.

Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8

On Sunday, mid-level flow is forecast to be southwesterly over the central U.S., as a shortwave trough moves into the Great Lakes. Another shortwave trough is forecast to move into the northern High Plains. Further south in the southern and central Plains, moderate to strong instability is forecast to be in place by midday. Thunderstorm development is expected over parts of this unstable airmass in the afternoon and evening. Although uncertainty exists concerning the location of the greatest severe threat, some solutions suggest potential for a large complex of storms from eastern Kansas into Missouri. At this time, too much uncertainty exists for the addition of a severe threat area.

On Monday, a front is forecast to advance southeastward across the central U.S. Ahead of this front, isolated severe storms will be possible near an axis of instability in the afternoon and evening. However, model spread is relatively large concerning the timing of features at this extended range.

..Broyles.. 05/11/2026

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National Risk Overview

Monday, May 11

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 5%

Tuesday, May 12

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 5%

Wednesday, May 13

ANY SEVERE: 5%

Thursday, May 14

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, May 15

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Saturday, May 16

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Sunday, May 17

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Monday, May 18

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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