Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, January 14
Outlook Summary
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across south Florida and the Keys today.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 141626
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026
Valid 141630Z - 151200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across south Florida and the Keys today.
Synopsis and Discussion
Deep upper troughing extends over much central and eastern CONUS. This troughing features two phased shortwave troughs, one moving southeastward through the Upper Midwest and the other moving through OK and AR. Both of these shortwaves are expected to continue southeastward/eastward throughout the period as the parent upper troughing also shifts gradually eastward. Upper ridging will persist across the western CONUS, resulting in an amplified ridge/trough pattern over the CONUS by early tomorrow.
Stable conditions are anticipated across the majority of the CONUS, as the progression of the aforementioned shortwaves leads to a reinforcing surge of dry, continental air. The only exception is across south FL, where modest moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s) remain in place along the southeast coast. A few thunderstorms are possible in this vicinity today, fostered by limited buoyancy amid weak low-level convergence close to a weak surface low. Additionally, low-level moisture and convergence are forecast to increase as the southernmost shortwave trough mentioned earlier progresses across the Gulf. Resulting increase in lift and buoyancy could result in a few isolated thunderstorms along the southwest FL Coast early tomorrow morning.
..Mosier/Squitieri.. 01/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Thursday, January 15
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 141713
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday.
Far Southern Florida and the Keys
Within the base of a highly amplified trough over the eastern CONUS, an embedded shortwave trough will advance eastward across the central Gulf Coast and northern FL Peninsula early in the period. The tail end of a related cold front will move southeastward across southern FL and the Keys during the morning and afternoon hours – where scattered showers/shallow convection is expected. However, poor lapse rates/limited buoyancy along/ahead of the front should generally limit thunderstorm potential.
..Weinman.. 01/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Friday, January 16
Outlook Summary
No thunderstorms are anticipated across the US on Friday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 140745
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
No thunderstorms are anticipated across the US on Friday.
A large upper trough will dominate the weather across the central/eastern United States on Day3 (Friday), with an upper ridge along the west coast. Model guidance suggests that low-level moisture will be quite limited,resulting in generally stable conditions. Therefore, no thunderstorms are expected.
..Hart.. 01/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Saturday, January 17
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, January 17 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, January 18 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, January 19 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, January 20 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, January 21 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140930 SPC AC 140930
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range guidance generally indicates that amplified mid-level troughing, evolving by late week to the east of the Rockies, will be maintained through this coming weekend, before a fairly prominent ridge near and offshore of the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia coast weakens and redevelops to the west/northwest. However, even as flow trends less amplified, it appears that a broadly confluent westerly to northwesterly regime to the east of the Rockies may continue to support a series of southeastward developing cold surface ridges. Toward the middle of next week, this may become less of an influence across the southwestern into western Gulf Basin, beneath a belt of strengthening mid/upper westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific. It is possible that low-level moistening and forcing for ascent could become supportive of sufficient destabilization for thunderstorm development by Tuesday/Wednesday across the northwestern Gulf. However, it is not yet clear that this will impact areas inland of the Gulf coast, or become particularly strong.
..Kerr.. 01/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, January 18
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, January 17 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, January 18 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, January 19 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, January 20 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, January 21 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140930 SPC AC 140930
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range guidance generally indicates that amplified mid-level troughing, evolving by late week to the east of the Rockies, will be maintained through this coming weekend, before a fairly prominent ridge near and offshore of the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia coast weakens and redevelops to the west/northwest. However, even as flow trends less amplified, it appears that a broadly confluent westerly to northwesterly regime to the east of the Rockies may continue to support a series of southeastward developing cold surface ridges. Toward the middle of next week, this may become less of an influence across the southwestern into western Gulf Basin, beneath a belt of strengthening mid/upper westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific. It is possible that low-level moistening and forcing for ascent could become supportive of sufficient destabilization for thunderstorm development by Tuesday/Wednesday across the northwestern Gulf. However, it is not yet clear that this will impact areas inland of the Gulf coast, or become particularly strong.
..Kerr.. 01/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, January 19
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, January 17 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, January 18 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, January 19 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, January 20 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, January 21 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140930 SPC AC 140930
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range guidance generally indicates that amplified mid-level troughing, evolving by late week to the east of the Rockies, will be maintained through this coming weekend, before a fairly prominent ridge near and offshore of the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia coast weakens and redevelops to the west/northwest. However, even as flow trends less amplified, it appears that a broadly confluent westerly to northwesterly regime to the east of the Rockies may continue to support a series of southeastward developing cold surface ridges. Toward the middle of next week, this may become less of an influence across the southwestern into western Gulf Basin, beneath a belt of strengthening mid/upper westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific. It is possible that low-level moistening and forcing for ascent could become supportive of sufficient destabilization for thunderstorm development by Tuesday/Wednesday across the northwestern Gulf. However, it is not yet clear that this will impact areas inland of the Gulf coast, or become particularly strong.
..Kerr.. 01/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, January 20
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, January 17 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, January 18 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, January 19 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, January 20 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, January 21 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140930 SPC AC 140930
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range guidance generally indicates that amplified mid-level troughing, evolving by late week to the east of the Rockies, will be maintained through this coming weekend, before a fairly prominent ridge near and offshore of the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia coast weakens and redevelops to the west/northwest. However, even as flow trends less amplified, it appears that a broadly confluent westerly to northwesterly regime to the east of the Rockies may continue to support a series of southeastward developing cold surface ridges. Toward the middle of next week, this may become less of an influence across the southwestern into western Gulf Basin, beneath a belt of strengthening mid/upper westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific. It is possible that low-level moistening and forcing for ascent could become supportive of sufficient destabilization for thunderstorm development by Tuesday/Wednesday across the northwestern Gulf. However, it is not yet clear that this will impact areas inland of the Gulf coast, or become particularly strong.
..Kerr.. 01/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, January 21
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, January 17 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, January 18 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, January 19 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, January 20 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, January 21 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140930 SPC AC 140930
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range guidance generally indicates that amplified mid-level troughing, evolving by late week to the east of the Rockies, will be maintained through this coming weekend, before a fairly prominent ridge near and offshore of the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia coast weakens and redevelops to the west/northwest. However, even as flow trends less amplified, it appears that a broadly confluent westerly to northwesterly regime to the east of the Rockies may continue to support a series of southeastward developing cold surface ridges. Toward the middle of next week, this may become less of an influence across the southwestern into western Gulf Basin, beneath a belt of strengthening mid/upper westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific. It is possible that low-level moistening and forcing for ascent could become supportive of sufficient destabilization for thunderstorm development by Tuesday/Wednesday across the northwestern Gulf. However, it is not yet clear that this will impact areas inland of the Gulf coast, or become particularly strong.
..Kerr.. 01/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, January 14
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Thursday, January 15
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Friday, January 16
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Saturday, January 17
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, January 18
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, January 19
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, January 20
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, January 21
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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