Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, February 16
Outlook Summary
Strong thunderstorms may impact the coastal areas of central and southern California today. These storms may produce locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 161254
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026
Valid 161300Z - 171200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
### SUMMARY
Strong thunderstorms may impact the coastal areas of central and southern California today. These storms may produce locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado.
Coastal central into southern CA
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent upper trough over the eastern Pacific with this feature forecast to move across CA through the evening. Within the base of the trough, an intense cyclonically curved speed max (around 100 kt at 500 mb) will nose east into the US/Mexican border and Baja California by late this afternoon before moving into the Desert Southwest tonight.
In the low levels, an elongated area of surface low pressure will migrate from the central coast into the interior valleys, and subsequently into the northern Great Basin/ID by later this evening. An attendant cold front will push inland during the day with shallow convective squalls likely focusing along or ahead of the front. Forecast soundings show meager buoyancy developing immediately ahead of the convection which may aid in a few stronger/deeper updrafts. Ample flow in the lowest 1-km MSL may result in a few stronger/locally damaging gusts with short bands/segments within the broader rain shield. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out before this limited risk is shunted southward along the coast and it dissipates by early evening.
Coastal southwest OR and northern CA
Overnight, an upper trough will dive southward just off the Pacific Northwest, with the left-exit region of the upper jet pushing into northern CA early Tuesday morning. While surface temperatures will be cool and in the 40s F in the wake of the earlier wave, this secondary trough will bring cold temperatures aloft with and 500 mb temperatures to around -35 C. As such, SBCAPE of a few hundred J/kg will exist as the cold front moves across the coastal counties. Low-topped convection may yield locally strong wind gusts near the immediate coast.
..Smith/Moore.. 02/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Tuesday, February 17
Outlook Summary
Scattered thunderstorm activity is possible across Pacific coastal areas and the Central Valley of California Tuesday into Tuesday night, as well as across parts of the mid Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest Tuesday night. However, the risk for severe storms appears low.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 160554
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Scattered thunderstorm activity is possible across Pacific coastal areas and the Central Valley of California Tuesday into Tuesday night, as well as across parts of the mid Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest Tuesday night. However, the risk for severe storms appears low.
Discussion
Models continue to indicate that a lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone will weaken while migrating inland of the Pacific Northwest coast Tuesday. However, an initially intense offshore jet is forecast to continue digging south-southeastward across California coastal areas to the south of San Francisco Bay, toward the lower Colorado Valley through late Tuesday night, contributing to the maintenance of amplified larger-scale troughing across and inland of the U.S. Pacific Coast.
Downstream, a broad swath of seasonably strong west-southwesterly mid/upper flow is forecast to continue developing east of the southern Rockies, across the south central Great Plains and Ohio Valley, as the remnants of preceding inland migrating troughing pivot across the northern Rockies and much of the middle/lower Missouri Valley into the Upper Midwest by late Tuesday night. Models continue to indicate that initially deep surface troughing accompanying this perturbation will begin to slowly weaken, but a broad belt of strong southwesterly low-level flow (including 40-50 kt around 850 mb) may be maintained while spreading from the central/southern Great Plains into the Ohio Valley by 12Z Wednesday.
To the west/northwest of the low-level jet axis, a plume of rather modest low-level moisture, including surface dew points in the mid 40s to lower/mid 50s F, may advect from parts of the central Great Plains across and northeast of the lower/mid Missouri Valley, beneath a warm/dry elevated mixed-layer initially overspreading much of the central and southern Great Plains through middle and lower Mississippi Valley. However, substantive Gulf boundary-layer modification and inland return flow still appears unlikely through this period and beyond.
Pacific Coast
Low probabilities for thunderstorm activity may linger into early Tuesday nearly southern California coastal areas. However, the primary convective potential, including scattered thunderstorm development, seems likely to become focused across northern and central California coastal areas into the Central Valley Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. This will accompany strong mid-level cooling and forcing for ascent associated with the digging mid/upper jet, which may provide support for stronger cells becoming capable of producing gusty winds and small hail, particularly near coastal areas around San Francisco Bay as early as midday Tuesday. It still appears that the lack of steeper lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, and more substantive CAPE, may minimize the potential for storms to reach severe criteria, but this will continue to be monitored in later outlooks for this period.
Mid Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest
Given at least limited low-level moisture return, it still appears that forcing for ascent may contribute to a corridor of thunderstorm development as strong mid-level height falls overspread the region late Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. Based on the latest forecast soundings and other model output, the potential for severe hail and strong surface gusts still appears rather low, but perhaps not entirely out of the question. This will continue to be monitored in later outlook updates for this period.
..Kerr.. 02/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Wednesday, February 18
Outlook Summary
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Wednesday through Wednesday night, with probabilities for thunderstorm development generally low.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 160811
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Wednesday through Wednesday night, with probabilities for thunderstorm development generally low.
Discussion
An initial mid-level perturbation and associated surface troughing pivoting through the Upper Midwest and adjacent Great Lakes region by the beginning of this period are forecast to undergo substantive weakening Wednesday through Wednesday night. It is possible that a residual area of lower/mid-tropospheric forcing for ascent, coupled with limited moisture return, may maintain sufficient strength to support continuing convective development capable of producing lightning while spreading through the lower Great Lakes vicinity into the day Wednesday. However, this potential is not readily evident in available NAM forecast soundings, and thunderstorm probabilities are probably near the minimum 10 percent threshold for a categorical thunder area.
Upstream, substantive spread is evident in the latest model output concerning short wave developments within amplified mid/upper troughing near the Pacific coast. It does appear that one emerging perturbation may support notable cyclogenesis from the lee of the Colorado Rockies into the central Great Plains late Wednesday through Wednesday night. However, modest inland moisture return off a gradually modifying Gulf boundary layer is generally forecast to be focused east of the lower Mississippi Valley, into the Southeast, within a broad belt of south to southwesterly flow around low-level ridging centered over the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes of the western Atlantic.
..Kerr.. 02/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Thursday, February 19
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, February 19 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Friday, February 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, February 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, February 22 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, February 23 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 161000 SPC AC 161000
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range guidance indicates that a sub-1000 mb surface cyclone, centered across the central Great Plains at the outset of the period, may undergo a period of further deepening as it migrates across and northeast of the lower Missouri Valley, toward the Great Lakes, late Thursday afternoon or evening. Perhaps most notable, latest model output appears a bit more aggressive than last night concerning a corridor of warm sector moisture return into the vicinity of the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers. It now appears that this may include surface dew points increasing as high as the upper 50s to lower 60s F by around 20/00Z, which may advect at least a bit further east-northeastward through the lower Ohio Valley, before being cut off later Thursday evening. Though still somewhat modest, and perhaps only supportive of CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg, this probably will be conducive to severe thunderstorm development, in the presence of more than sufficient deep-layer shear and large-scale ascent to support organized convection. This may include supercells with potential to produce tornadoes, and perhaps an upscale growing cluster with strong to severe gusts for a period Thursday evening.
It appears that this cyclone will weaken substantively across the Great Lakes region on Friday, with renewed cyclogenesis possible to the east of the Blue Ridge, or perhaps primarily offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast. So, while increasing low-level moisture return may continue into the warm sector across parts of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic, the extent to which mid/upper support remains conducive to severe weather potential remains unclear.
By late this coming weekend into at least next Monday, convective potential appears likely to diminish as large-scale mid/upper ridging expands across and east of the Rockies toward the Atlantic Seaboard.
..Kerr.. 02/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, February 20
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, February 19 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Friday, February 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, February 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, February 22 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, February 23 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 161000 SPC AC 161000
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range guidance indicates that a sub-1000 mb surface cyclone, centered across the central Great Plains at the outset of the period, may undergo a period of further deepening as it migrates across and northeast of the lower Missouri Valley, toward the Great Lakes, late Thursday afternoon or evening. Perhaps most notable, latest model output appears a bit more aggressive than last night concerning a corridor of warm sector moisture return into the vicinity of the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers. It now appears that this may include surface dew points increasing as high as the upper 50s to lower 60s F by around 20/00Z, which may advect at least a bit further east-northeastward through the lower Ohio Valley, before being cut off later Thursday evening. Though still somewhat modest, and perhaps only supportive of CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg, this probably will be conducive to severe thunderstorm development, in the presence of more than sufficient deep-layer shear and large-scale ascent to support organized convection. This may include supercells with potential to produce tornadoes, and perhaps an upscale growing cluster with strong to severe gusts for a period Thursday evening.
It appears that this cyclone will weaken substantively across the Great Lakes region on Friday, with renewed cyclogenesis possible to the east of the Blue Ridge, or perhaps primarily offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast. So, while increasing low-level moisture return may continue into the warm sector across parts of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic, the extent to which mid/upper support remains conducive to severe weather potential remains unclear.
By late this coming weekend into at least next Monday, convective potential appears likely to diminish as large-scale mid/upper ridging expands across and east of the Rockies toward the Atlantic Seaboard.
..Kerr.. 02/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, February 21
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, February 19 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Friday, February 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, February 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, February 22 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, February 23 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 161000 SPC AC 161000
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range guidance indicates that a sub-1000 mb surface cyclone, centered across the central Great Plains at the outset of the period, may undergo a period of further deepening as it migrates across and northeast of the lower Missouri Valley, toward the Great Lakes, late Thursday afternoon or evening. Perhaps most notable, latest model output appears a bit more aggressive than last night concerning a corridor of warm sector moisture return into the vicinity of the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers. It now appears that this may include surface dew points increasing as high as the upper 50s to lower 60s F by around 20/00Z, which may advect at least a bit further east-northeastward through the lower Ohio Valley, before being cut off later Thursday evening. Though still somewhat modest, and perhaps only supportive of CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg, this probably will be conducive to severe thunderstorm development, in the presence of more than sufficient deep-layer shear and large-scale ascent to support organized convection. This may include supercells with potential to produce tornadoes, and perhaps an upscale growing cluster with strong to severe gusts for a period Thursday evening.
It appears that this cyclone will weaken substantively across the Great Lakes region on Friday, with renewed cyclogenesis possible to the east of the Blue Ridge, or perhaps primarily offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast. So, while increasing low-level moisture return may continue into the warm sector across parts of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic, the extent to which mid/upper support remains conducive to severe weather potential remains unclear.
By late this coming weekend into at least next Monday, convective potential appears likely to diminish as large-scale mid/upper ridging expands across and east of the Rockies toward the Atlantic Seaboard.
..Kerr.. 02/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, February 22
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, February 19 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Friday, February 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, February 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, February 22 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, February 23 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 161000 SPC AC 161000
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range guidance indicates that a sub-1000 mb surface cyclone, centered across the central Great Plains at the outset of the period, may undergo a period of further deepening as it migrates across and northeast of the lower Missouri Valley, toward the Great Lakes, late Thursday afternoon or evening. Perhaps most notable, latest model output appears a bit more aggressive than last night concerning a corridor of warm sector moisture return into the vicinity of the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers. It now appears that this may include surface dew points increasing as high as the upper 50s to lower 60s F by around 20/00Z, which may advect at least a bit further east-northeastward through the lower Ohio Valley, before being cut off later Thursday evening. Though still somewhat modest, and perhaps only supportive of CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg, this probably will be conducive to severe thunderstorm development, in the presence of more than sufficient deep-layer shear and large-scale ascent to support organized convection. This may include supercells with potential to produce tornadoes, and perhaps an upscale growing cluster with strong to severe gusts for a period Thursday evening.
It appears that this cyclone will weaken substantively across the Great Lakes region on Friday, with renewed cyclogenesis possible to the east of the Blue Ridge, or perhaps primarily offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast. So, while increasing low-level moisture return may continue into the warm sector across parts of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic, the extent to which mid/upper support remains conducive to severe weather potential remains unclear.
By late this coming weekend into at least next Monday, convective potential appears likely to diminish as large-scale mid/upper ridging expands across and east of the Rockies toward the Atlantic Seaboard.
..Kerr.. 02/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, February 23
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, February 19 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Friday, February 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, February 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, February 22 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, February 23 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 161000 SPC AC 161000
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range guidance indicates that a sub-1000 mb surface cyclone, centered across the central Great Plains at the outset of the period, may undergo a period of further deepening as it migrates across and northeast of the lower Missouri Valley, toward the Great Lakes, late Thursday afternoon or evening. Perhaps most notable, latest model output appears a bit more aggressive than last night concerning a corridor of warm sector moisture return into the vicinity of the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers. It now appears that this may include surface dew points increasing as high as the upper 50s to lower 60s F by around 20/00Z, which may advect at least a bit further east-northeastward through the lower Ohio Valley, before being cut off later Thursday evening. Though still somewhat modest, and perhaps only supportive of CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg, this probably will be conducive to severe thunderstorm development, in the presence of more than sufficient deep-layer shear and large-scale ascent to support organized convection. This may include supercells with potential to produce tornadoes, and perhaps an upscale growing cluster with strong to severe gusts for a period Thursday evening.
It appears that this cyclone will weaken substantively across the Great Lakes region on Friday, with renewed cyclogenesis possible to the east of the Blue Ridge, or perhaps primarily offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast. So, while increasing low-level moisture return may continue into the warm sector across parts of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic, the extent to which mid/upper support remains conducive to severe weather potential remains unclear.
By late this coming weekend into at least next Monday, convective potential appears likely to diminish as large-scale mid/upper ridging expands across and east of the Rockies toward the Atlantic Seaboard.
..Kerr.. 02/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, February 16
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Tuesday, February 17
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Wednesday, February 18
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Thursday, February 19
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Friday, February 20
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, February 21
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, February 22
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, February 23
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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