Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, November 9
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 100035
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0635 PM CST Mon Nov 09 2026
Valid 100100Z - 101200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight.
Pacific Northwest
Within the southern fringe of a broader precipitation band preceding a vigorous short-wave trough, embedded convective elements sufficiently deep for lightning generation have recently moved onto the OR coast. Modification of the 00Z UIL sounding for a slightly warmer and more moist PBL farther to the south yields a narrow CAPE profile extending upwards into the -10 to -20 C layer with MUCAPE of a few hundred J/kg, which is consistent with the lightning observations. A similar thermodynamic environment is expected to spread inland this evening into tonight, supporting the continuation of sporadic lightning occurrences. Turbulent downward mixing of stronger flow aloft may yield a few strong wind gusts; however, severe weather is not expected.
### Portions of Deep South Texas to the middle Texas Coast.
As of 00Z, the most vigorous convection was located offshore to the southeast of Brownsville, within a zone of stronger surface-based buoyancy. Farther north along the lower to middle TX Coast, a modest low-level warm-advection regime is expected to persist overnight, in which a few elevated thunderstorms will remain possible amidst a marginally unstable environment (per 00Z BRO/CRP soundings).
..Mead.. 11/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Tuesday, November 10
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected Tuesday into early Wednesday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 091641
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Mon Nov 09 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected Tuesday into early Wednesday.
Synopsis
Mid-level impulses will traverse the northern CONUS and the Gulf Coast on Tuesday, reinforcing surface high pressure and an accompanying stable airmass across most of the CONUS, limiting thunderstorm development. A couple of thunderstorms may develop along the TX coastline as the Gulf Coast mid-level impulse overspreads seasonal moisture. A lightning flash or two may accompany impulses across the northwest Washington coastline and northern New England. A thunderstorm or two may also develop over the central FL Peninsula within a weak warm-air advection regime. However, the very sparse thunder coverage precludes general thunder highlights over these areas.
..Squitieri.. 11/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Wednesday, November 11
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over the Mid-Mississippi Valley late Wednesday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 092056
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CST Mon Nov 09 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
CORRECTED FOR WORDING IN SUMMARY
SUMMARY
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over the Mid-Mississippi Valley late Wednesday.
Synopsis
An upper trough will amplify across the eastern half of the CONUS as an upper ridge overspreads the U.S. west of the Rockies. Ahead of the amplifying upper trough, a surface low will rapidly deepen while traversing the OH river through the period, accompanied by a surface cold front that will sweep across the Mid-MS Valley. A marginally moist airmass will advect northward ahead of the approaching cold front, resulting in enough buoyancy (albeit scant), amid strong tropospheric flow fields and deep-layer ascent, to support isolated strong to potentially severe thunderstorms.
Mid-MS Valley
By late afternoon into early evening, upper 50s F surface dewpoints will advect ahead of the surface cold front, amid 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates and minimal MLCINH (per RRFS forecast soundings), yielding over 500 J/kg MLCAPE. Given strong forcing for ascent, scattered thunderstorms should develop amid a strong unidirectional tropospheric wind field by late afternoon into early evening over the mid MS Valley. Appreciable strengthening of this flow with height should support 50+ kts of effective bulk (speed) shear and elongated hodographs. As such, any stronger storm cores that develop and become sustained may produce a few damaging gusts, hence the introduction of Category 1/Marginal risk probabilities, which is also supported by the ML guidance consensus.
..Squitieri.. 11/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Thursday, November 12
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, November 13 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, November 14 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, November 15 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, November 16 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090737 SPC AC 090737
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CST Mon Nov 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
On Thursday/Day 4, an upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., as an associated cold front advances southeastward to near the Atlantic coasts of the Carolinas and Georgia. Thunderstorm development will be possible along the front and ahead of the trough in the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated strong wind gusts will be possible, but any potential for severe gusts should be minimal due to weak instability. From the weekend into early next week, a large area of high pressure is forecast to move across the central and eastern U.S. In response, a cold and dry airmass is expected to settle in over much of the continental U.S., which will be unfavorable for thunderstorm development in most areas.
..Broyles.. 11/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, November 13
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, November 13 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, November 14 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, November 15 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, November 16 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090737 SPC AC 090737
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CST Mon Nov 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
On Thursday/Day 4, an upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., as an associated cold front advances southeastward to near the Atlantic coasts of the Carolinas and Georgia. Thunderstorm development will be possible along the front and ahead of the trough in the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated strong wind gusts will be possible, but any potential for severe gusts should be minimal due to weak instability. From the weekend into early next week, a large area of high pressure is forecast to move across the central and eastern U.S. In response, a cold and dry airmass is expected to settle in over much of the continental U.S., which will be unfavorable for thunderstorm development in most areas.
..Broyles.. 11/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, November 14
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, November 13 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, November 14 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, November 15 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, November 16 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090737 SPC AC 090737
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CST Mon Nov 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
On Thursday/Day 4, an upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., as an associated cold front advances southeastward to near the Atlantic coasts of the Carolinas and Georgia. Thunderstorm development will be possible along the front and ahead of the trough in the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated strong wind gusts will be possible, but any potential for severe gusts should be minimal due to weak instability. From the weekend into early next week, a large area of high pressure is forecast to move across the central and eastern U.S. In response, a cold and dry airmass is expected to settle in over much of the continental U.S., which will be unfavorable for thunderstorm development in most areas.
..Broyles.. 11/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, November 15
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, November 13 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, November 14 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, November 15 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, November 16 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090737 SPC AC 090737
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CST Mon Nov 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
On Thursday/Day 4, an upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., as an associated cold front advances southeastward to near the Atlantic coasts of the Carolinas and Georgia. Thunderstorm development will be possible along the front and ahead of the trough in the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated strong wind gusts will be possible, but any potential for severe gusts should be minimal due to weak instability. From the weekend into early next week, a large area of high pressure is forecast to move across the central and eastern U.S. In response, a cold and dry airmass is expected to settle in over much of the continental U.S., which will be unfavorable for thunderstorm development in most areas.
..Broyles.. 11/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, November 16
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, November 13 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, November 14 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, November 15 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, November 16 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090737 SPC AC 090737
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CST Mon Nov 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
On Thursday/Day 4, an upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., as an associated cold front advances southeastward to near the Atlantic coasts of the Carolinas and Georgia. Thunderstorm development will be possible along the front and ahead of the trough in the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated strong wind gusts will be possible, but any potential for severe gusts should be minimal due to weak instability. From the weekend into early next week, a large area of high pressure is forecast to move across the central and eastern U.S. In response, a cold and dry airmass is expected to settle in over much of the continental U.S., which will be unfavorable for thunderstorm development in most areas.
..Broyles.. 11/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, November 9
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, November 10
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Wednesday, November 11
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Thursday, November 12
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, November 13
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, November 14
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, November 15
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, November 16
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Your Severe Outlook
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