Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Friday, April 10

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the south-central Plains into the Ozarks. Strong to locally severe storms may also occur from northern Nevada into southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho, and also across parts of central California.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 100553

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS…NORTHERN NV INTO SOUTHEAST OR/SOUTHWEST ID…AND PARTS OF CENTRAL CA

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the south-central Plains into the Ozarks. Strong to locally severe storms may also occur from northern Nevada into southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho, and also across parts of central California.

Synopsis

A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move from the Great Lakes region toward New England through the period. Upstream, a mid/upper low initially offshore of California will move inland toward the Great Basin as a shortwave trough, as another mid/upper shortwave/low approaches the Pacific Coast.

Parts of the south-central Plains into the Ozarks

In the wake of morning elevated convection, an outflow-reinforced cold front is expected to become nearly stationary this afternoon and early evening. Steep midlevel lapse rates and rather cool temperatures aloft will support MLCAPE of near/above 1500 J/kg along/south of the front, with minimal MLCINH by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by late afternoon in the vicinity of the boundary across parts of southern KS/northern OK into the Ozarks, with additional development possible near the front and within a post-frontal regime across the south-central High Plains vicinity.

With rather modest large-scale ascent and weak deep-layer flow forecast across the region, storm organization and duration may generally remain somewhat limited. However, more organized cells may briefly develop on an isolated basis near the boundary, where some enhancement to effective shear/SRH will be possible. Isolated large hail appears to be the most likely hazard, though localized strong/damaging gusts also cannot be ruled out with the strongest storms.

Northern NV into southeast OR/southwest ID and central/northern CA

In response to the approaching mid/upper low and shortwave trough, scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across parts of central/northern CA into the northern Great Basin and interior Northwest. Cold temperatures aloft and rather strong diurnal heating will result in steep low/midlevel lapse rates and MUCAPE increasing to near/above 500 J/kg, despite limited low-level moisture.

Midlevel flow and deep-layer shear will gradually increase with time, with the most favorable overlap of shear and instability currently expected from northern NV into southeast OR/southwest ID. Modestly organized cells/clusters and perhaps a couple of supercells may develop in this area, with an attendant threat of hail and localized severe gusts.

A few strong storms may also develop across parts of the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys in California. While deep-layer shear will be somewhat less favorable compared to the northern Great Basin area, cold temperatures aloft (near/below -20C at 500 mb) may support potential for marginally severe hail with the strongest storms. Local terrain influences could also support transient cell organization/rotation and possibly a brief tornado, though this potential remains very uncertain at this time.

..Dean/Chalmers.. 04/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Saturday, April 11

Outlook Summary

Scattered thunderstorms producing hail and strong wind gusts will be possible across portions of the central and southern Plains on Saturday.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 100521

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS

### SUMMARY

Scattered thunderstorms producing hail and strong wind gusts will be possible across portions of the central and southern Plains on Saturday.

Southern/Central Plains

Upper ridging will be in place over the central U.S. early Saturday. A weak upper shortwave trough over the Great Basin will migrate northeast through the period, along with several other lead shortwave impulses ahead of a larger-scale western trough/upper low near the Pacific coast. This will result in deamplification of the upper ridge. Modest deep-layer southwesterly flow around 20-40 kt will overspread much of the Plains. At the surface, low pressure will deepen over Montana and eventually develop east across the northern Plains late in the period, while lee troughing extends southward across the High Plains. Increasing south/southeasterly low-level flow will transport 50s and low 60s F dewpoints northward toward the Mid-MO Valley, and westward toward western KS/OK/TX.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of the surface trough across eastern NM/western TX during the afternoon as modest large-scale ascent overspreads the region. Cloud cover will limit daytime heating, but steepening lapse rates and modestly increasing boundary-layer moisture will support MLCAPE to around 1000-1500 J/kg. Vertical shear will be weak but sufficient for at least transient organized cells capable of producing large hail. As a low-level jet increases during the evening, some consolidation of updrafts could occur and linear segments/small bows could produce locally strong wind gusts.

Further north, a more conditional risk is expected across the central Plains. A warm front will lift northward across KS/NE during the afternoon and into early evening. Forecast soundings indicate capping will likely preclude much convective development within the warm sector. However, if any cells are able to develop and become sustained near the warm front, a severe risk will be possible. This scenario is uncertain, and will maintain Level 1 of 5/Marginal risk. Additionally cells are possible during the evening across parts of eastern CO/western KS/western NE near the surface trough. Locally strong gusts and hail will be possible with these storms.

Central CA

Low-topped thunderstorms are possible in the north-central Valley vicinity during the afternoon/evening as cooling aloft and increasing ascent overspread the region ahead of an upper low over the eastern Pacific. Instability is expected to remain weak (less than 400 J/kg MLCAPE), but small hail and gusty winds may briefly occur with stronger cells. As the upper low and a surface cold front approach the central coast overnight, a line of low-topped convection could bring gusty winds as well. Severe storms are not expected at this time.

Great Basin vicinity

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and evening as a compact upper shortwave trough moves over the region. Cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and MLCAPE generally less than 500 J/kg. However, a well mixed boundary layer with inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles and around 30 kt southwesterly flow through 600 mb could support locally gusty winds. Overall, severe potential appears limited.

..Leitman.. 04/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Sunday, April 12

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Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090858 SPC AC 090858

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Sunday/Day 4 to Tuesday/Day 6

On Sunday, southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the nation. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located from the southern Plains north-northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Much of this corridor is forecast to become moderately unstable by afternoon. The greatest potential for severe storms will likely be in the southern and central Plains, where some solutions have a subtle shortwave trough. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will be favorable for supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts.

Mid-level flow is forecast to gradually strengthen across the central U.S. on Monday. In response moisture advection will continue in the Great Plains. By Monday afternoon, moderate instability should be in place from north Texas northward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across this airmass Monday afternoon and evening. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will again be favorable for severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. A tornado threat may also develop.

On Tuesday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the southern Rockies, as an associated mid-level jet streak ejects northeastward across the southern High Plains. A moderately unstable airmass will likely be in place by afternoon from the southern Plains northeastward into mid to upper Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes. Strong deep-layer shear is forecast over the southern and central Plains, where a substantial severe threat will be possible. Supercells with large hail, wind damage and tornadoes are expected Tuesday afternoon and evening. An upgrade will be possible across parts of the threat area, once confidence increases on the timing of the ejecting trough.

Wednesday/Day 7 and Thursday/Day 8

The upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. on Wednesday, as a cold front advances southeastward through the Great Plains and Upper Midwest. Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of much of the front. Thunderstorms that form in areas that destabilize sufficiently could have a severe threat. The severe potential will likely continue into Thursday, as the front advances southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. However, model spread concerning the position of the front and timing of the trough increases substantially toward mid week, suggesting a lot of uncertainty exists at this extended range in the period.

..Broyles.. 04/09/2026

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Outlook for Monday, April 13

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Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090858 SPC AC 090858

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Sunday/Day 4 to Tuesday/Day 6

On Sunday, southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the nation. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located from the southern Plains north-northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Much of this corridor is forecast to become moderately unstable by afternoon. The greatest potential for severe storms will likely be in the southern and central Plains, where some solutions have a subtle shortwave trough. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will be favorable for supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts.

Mid-level flow is forecast to gradually strengthen across the central U.S. on Monday. In response moisture advection will continue in the Great Plains. By Monday afternoon, moderate instability should be in place from north Texas northward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across this airmass Monday afternoon and evening. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will again be favorable for severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. A tornado threat may also develop.

On Tuesday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the southern Rockies, as an associated mid-level jet streak ejects northeastward across the southern High Plains. A moderately unstable airmass will likely be in place by afternoon from the southern Plains northeastward into mid to upper Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes. Strong deep-layer shear is forecast over the southern and central Plains, where a substantial severe threat will be possible. Supercells with large hail, wind damage and tornadoes are expected Tuesday afternoon and evening. An upgrade will be possible across parts of the threat area, once confidence increases on the timing of the ejecting trough.

Wednesday/Day 7 and Thursday/Day 8

The upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. on Wednesday, as a cold front advances southeastward through the Great Plains and Upper Midwest. Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of much of the front. Thunderstorms that form in areas that destabilize sufficiently could have a severe threat. The severe potential will likely continue into Thursday, as the front advances southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. However, model spread concerning the position of the front and timing of the trough increases substantially toward mid week, suggesting a lot of uncertainty exists at this extended range in the period.

..Broyles.. 04/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, April 14

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090858 SPC AC 090858

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Sunday/Day 4 to Tuesday/Day 6

On Sunday, southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the nation. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located from the southern Plains north-northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Much of this corridor is forecast to become moderately unstable by afternoon. The greatest potential for severe storms will likely be in the southern and central Plains, where some solutions have a subtle shortwave trough. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will be favorable for supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts.

Mid-level flow is forecast to gradually strengthen across the central U.S. on Monday. In response moisture advection will continue in the Great Plains. By Monday afternoon, moderate instability should be in place from north Texas northward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across this airmass Monday afternoon and evening. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will again be favorable for severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. A tornado threat may also develop.

On Tuesday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the southern Rockies, as an associated mid-level jet streak ejects northeastward across the southern High Plains. A moderately unstable airmass will likely be in place by afternoon from the southern Plains northeastward into mid to upper Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes. Strong deep-layer shear is forecast over the southern and central Plains, where a substantial severe threat will be possible. Supercells with large hail, wind damage and tornadoes are expected Tuesday afternoon and evening. An upgrade will be possible across parts of the threat area, once confidence increases on the timing of the ejecting trough.

Wednesday/Day 7 and Thursday/Day 8

The upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. on Wednesday, as a cold front advances southeastward through the Great Plains and Upper Midwest. Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of much of the front. Thunderstorms that form in areas that destabilize sufficiently could have a severe threat. The severe potential will likely continue into Thursday, as the front advances southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. However, model spread concerning the position of the front and timing of the trough increases substantially toward mid week, suggesting a lot of uncertainty exists at this extended range in the period.

..Broyles.. 04/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, April 15

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Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090858 SPC AC 090858

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Sunday/Day 4 to Tuesday/Day 6

On Sunday, southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the nation. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located from the southern Plains north-northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Much of this corridor is forecast to become moderately unstable by afternoon. The greatest potential for severe storms will likely be in the southern and central Plains, where some solutions have a subtle shortwave trough. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will be favorable for supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts.

Mid-level flow is forecast to gradually strengthen across the central U.S. on Monday. In response moisture advection will continue in the Great Plains. By Monday afternoon, moderate instability should be in place from north Texas northward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across this airmass Monday afternoon and evening. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will again be favorable for severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. A tornado threat may also develop.

On Tuesday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the southern Rockies, as an associated mid-level jet streak ejects northeastward across the southern High Plains. A moderately unstable airmass will likely be in place by afternoon from the southern Plains northeastward into mid to upper Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes. Strong deep-layer shear is forecast over the southern and central Plains, where a substantial severe threat will be possible. Supercells with large hail, wind damage and tornadoes are expected Tuesday afternoon and evening. An upgrade will be possible across parts of the threat area, once confidence increases on the timing of the ejecting trough.

Wednesday/Day 7 and Thursday/Day 8

The upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. on Wednesday, as a cold front advances southeastward through the Great Plains and Upper Midwest. Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of much of the front. Thunderstorms that form in areas that destabilize sufficiently could have a severe threat. The severe potential will likely continue into Thursday, as the front advances southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. However, model spread concerning the position of the front and timing of the trough increases substantially toward mid week, suggesting a lot of uncertainty exists at this extended range in the period.

..Broyles.. 04/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Thursday, April 16

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090858 SPC AC 090858

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Sunday/Day 4 to Tuesday/Day 6

On Sunday, southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the nation. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located from the southern Plains north-northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Much of this corridor is forecast to become moderately unstable by afternoon. The greatest potential for severe storms will likely be in the southern and central Plains, where some solutions have a subtle shortwave trough. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will be favorable for supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts.

Mid-level flow is forecast to gradually strengthen across the central U.S. on Monday. In response moisture advection will continue in the Great Plains. By Monday afternoon, moderate instability should be in place from north Texas northward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across this airmass Monday afternoon and evening. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will again be favorable for severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. A tornado threat may also develop.

On Tuesday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the southern Rockies, as an associated mid-level jet streak ejects northeastward across the southern High Plains. A moderately unstable airmass will likely be in place by afternoon from the southern Plains northeastward into mid to upper Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes. Strong deep-layer shear is forecast over the southern and central Plains, where a substantial severe threat will be possible. Supercells with large hail, wind damage and tornadoes are expected Tuesday afternoon and evening. An upgrade will be possible across parts of the threat area, once confidence increases on the timing of the ejecting trough.

Wednesday/Day 7 and Thursday/Day 8

The upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. on Wednesday, as a cold front advances southeastward through the Great Plains and Upper Midwest. Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of much of the front. Thunderstorms that form in areas that destabilize sufficiently could have a severe threat. The severe potential will likely continue into Thursday, as the front advances southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. However, model spread concerning the position of the front and timing of the trough increases substantially toward mid week, suggesting a lot of uncertainty exists at this extended range in the period.

..Broyles.. 04/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Friday, April 10

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 5%

Saturday, April 11

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Sunday, April 12

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Monday, April 13

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Tuesday, April 14

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Wednesday, April 15

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Thursday, April 16

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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