Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Friday, May 15

Outlook Summary

Severe storms producing damaging winds and large hail are likely from Iowa into northeast Kansas. Isolated hail or damaging wind gusts are possible over a large area from western Texas into Wisconsin and western Illinois.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 150600

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF IOWA

### SUMMARY

Severe storms producing damaging winds and large hail are likely from Iowa into northeast Kansas. Isolated hail or damaging wind gusts are possible over a large area from western Texas into Wisconsin and western Illinois.

Synopsis

Moderate westerly winds aloft will exist across the northern tier of states today, with several waves from the Pacific Northwest to the Great Lakes. The feature of interest will move across the Dakotas and toward the upper MS Valley late in the day, aiding storm development and severity from NE into WI. To the south, a weak shortwave trough will move out of NM and into TX, with mid and high level flow enhancement along with modest cooling aloft.

At the surface, low pressure will develop from southwest KS into the TX Panhandle, with a front extending into NE, southern MN, and into northern WI. Increasing southerly winds during the afternoon and evening will bring 60s F dewpoints northward toward these boundaries, with scattered severe storms likely late in the day and centered near Iowa.

Farther south, very steep lapse rates and a subtle upper trough should again result in widely scattered high-based storms producing severe gusts over the southern High Plains.

IA into eastern NE and northeast KS

Southerly winds and daytime heating will support moderate instability this afternoon near a surface trough which will extend from eastern NE into southern MN and northern WI. Dewpoints are expected to reach into the lower 60s F, and perhaps approach 65 F during the early evening. Meanwhile, midlevel temperatures will be cool, resulting in steep lapse rates and robust CAPE profiles.

Storms are most likely to initiate during the late afternoon near the IA/SD border, and extending northeastward into WI and perhaps the central MI Upper Peninsula. Large hail will be possible with the initial cells, supported by 60 kt deep-layer shear. Hail to 2.00" diameter will be possible even into WI.

Farther south into IA, the deeper theta-e plume and increasing low-level jet will enhance the severe wind risk, with an MCS expected to develop and move east/southeast across the region. Damaging winds with a few gusts over 70 mph are expected. Additional clusters of severe storms are expected from southeast NE into northeast KS as well, firmly within the low-level theta-e plume with maximally deepened moist layer to 700 mb. Shear will not be as strong, but the initial development is expected to be robust with large hail and damaging wind gusts.

Southwest KS into western Texas

Strong heating will yield very deep mixed layers near and south of the Panhandles surface low, while midlevel temperatures remain cool enough to support instability despite very low dewpoints. Meanwhile, the aforementioned shortwave trough will enhance lift late in the day. The result will be scattered high-based thunderstorms, with severe wind gusts expected. Isolated gusts over 70 mph may occur. Cells that develop into southwest TX may contain marginal hail as well, with elongated hodographs in the mid to upper levels.

..Jewell/Squitieri.. 05/15/2026

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Outlook for Saturday, May 16

Outlook Summary

Severe storms capable of large to very large hail, wind damage and perhaps a couple of tornadoes will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains. Scattered thunderstorms will also pose potential for strong to severe winds across the lower to mid- Missouri Valley.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 150556

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Severe storms capable of large to very large hail, wind damage and perhaps a couple of tornadoes will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains. Scattered thunderstorms will also pose potential for strong to severe winds across the lower to mid- Missouri Valley.

Synopsis

A trough is expected to begin to deepen across the western US as strengthening mid-level flow moves southward from the northern Pacific Friday and Saturday. Downstream across the central US, upper-level westerly flow will strengthen across the central/northern Rockies with strengthening lee troughing across the Plains. Persistent southerly flow through the southern and central Plains should establish a broad warm sector across the Plains, bounded to the west by a dryline and to the north by a diffuse warm frontal zone. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected across portions of the central high Plains near a developing surface low and along the warm front, with additional thunderstorms possible along the dryline from eastern Kansas to western Oklahoma. Scattered thunderstorms will also be likely across portions of the lower to mid Missouri Valley.

Central Plains

As a short-wave trough moves across the central Plains late Saturday afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop near the deepening surface low and the warm front by the afternoon across eastern CO, northwest KS, and western NE. A broad warm sector will be in place across much of the central Plains, with low to mid 60s dew points reaching as far north as southern Nebraska. MLCAPE around 2000-2500 J/kg will be common by the afternoon. Initially, strong deep layer shear and largely linear hodographs will support potential for supercells capable of large to very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado. As the low-level jet strengthens into the evening, low-level shear will increase but storm mode will also likely shift to become more linear, with broken clusters/bowing segments likely. A few of the mid-range hi-res CAMs depict a stronger bowing segment moving across southern Nebraska into the evening in concert with the increasing of the low-level jet. This may present a more focused corridor of significant wind potential. Confidence at this time in the exact location of this remains low. Higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if trends align.

Western Oklahoma/northwest Texas

Much of western Oklahoma and northwest Texas near the dryline will remain capped at the base of the EML. Strong daytime heating and favorable residence time within the dryline circulation may promote an isolated supercell or two with potential for large to very large hail and damaging winds by the late afternoon. Signal for development is most favorable near the Red River in southern Oklahoma where CAM guidance suggests potential and HREF calibrated thunder probabilities are highest.

Midwest/OH Valleys

A leading mid-level shortwave trough with an enhanced belt of 50 kts winds aloft will promote widely scattered thunderstorm development into the mid- to upper Missouri Valley Saturday afternoon. MUCAPE values on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg should support deep convection, and effective bulk shear values near 30 knots within the warm frontal zone may allow for organized convection with an attendant threat for damaging wind.

..Thornton.. 05/15/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Sunday, May 17

Outlook Summary

Severe storms will be likely Sunday from portions of the central and southern High Plains into the Upper Midwest. Supercells capable of all hazards will be possible before upscale growth and an emerging damaging wind risk continues into the evening.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 150731

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST

### SUMMARY

Severe storms will be likely Sunday from portions of the central and southern High Plains into the Upper Midwest. Supercells capable of all hazards will be possible before upscale growth and an emerging damaging wind risk continues into the evening.

Synopsis

An upper-level trough will begin to eject across the Intermountain West on D3/Sunday with a more subtle shortwave trough moving across the central Plains. As a result, deepening low pressure will develop across eastern Colorado/western Kansas with strengthening southerly flow and warm moist advection south of a warm front lifting northward into the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Early in the period, elevated storms will likely be ongoing across portions of Iowa into southern Minnesota. Scattered severe storms capable of all hazards will be expected to develop near the warm front/low across eastern Colorado into Nebraska and across southern South Dakota continuing into portions of the upper-Midwest along the cold front through the evening. A more isolated and conditional threat for severe storms will extend southward along the dryline from western Kansas into western Oklahoma.

Central Plains into the Upper Midwest

Early day elevated convection is expected to move across portions of Iowa into the upper-Midwest. This will pose some risk for severe hail through the morning. Across the central Plains, strong daytime heating is expected to yield moderate to strong instability across much of the central Plains. This in combination with strong deep layer shear suggests a rather volatile environment, particularly across central Nebraska into southern South Dakota/northwestern Iowa. Guidance suggests that thunderstorms will develop across eastern Colorado into Nebraska by the afternoon. Initial thunderstorm development will likely be supercellular and capable of all hazards including large to very large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes. As the front sags southward through the evening, eventual upscale growth into a squall line is expected by the evening. A strong 50 kt low-level jet will ramp up into the evening, which may support a continuing potential for tornadoes, some of which may be strong.

Western Kansas into western Oklahoma

A more conditional threat may extend southward along the dryline into western Kansas and western Oklahoma. Guidance suggests some signal for isolated supercells to develop along and east of the dryline Sunday afternoon. The environment here will conditionally favor large to very large hail, damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado or two with the strengthening low-level jet in the evening.

..Thornton.. 05/15/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Monday, May 18

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Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150901 SPC AC 150901

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/MON

### DISCUSSION

Monday/Day 4

A severe weather outbreak will be possible from Monday afternoon into the evening and overnight period. On Monday, the western trough will take on a negative tilt before ejecting across the central Plains, with strong southwesterly flow aloft overspreading the region. This will result in strong lee cyclone development across western Kansas. A surface cold front will extend northward to a secondary surface low across the upper Midwest. A dryline will extend southward across portions of western Kansas into western Oklahoma. Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the cold front and further south along the dryline Monday afternoon and evening from Nebraska into central Kansas. Given the volatile air mass ahead of these features, with moderate to strong instability and strengthening deep layer shear, initial development will likely be supercellular. Initial supercells will pose risk of all hazards including large to very large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes. As the southwesterly low-level jet increases into the evening, large clockwise enhancement of low-level hodographs across portions of central Kansas into northern Oklahoma may lead to an increasing risk for strong to intense tornadoes. Additional thunderstorm development will spread in tandem with the cold front from the central Plains to the upper Midwest through the evening, with potential for more widespread damaging wind and a few tornadoes (some of which may be strong).

Tuesday/Day 5 to Thursday/Day 7

Severe potential is expected to continue D5/Tuesday as the cold front extends from the upper Midwest to southern Plains. Strong to moderate instability ahead of the front will continue to support severe storms from the northern part of the southern Plains northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Trends are for the front to shift eastward faster than originally expected, and as such probabilities were shifted eastward with this update. Strong to severe storms may extend further north into the northeast and Great Lakes Region.

On Wednesday and Thursday, the cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon and evening. However, uncertainty concerning the exact location of the front is substantial at this extended range.

..Thornton.. 05/15/2026

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Outlook for Tuesday, May 19

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Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150901 SPC AC 150901

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/MON

### DISCUSSION

Monday/Day 4

A severe weather outbreak will be possible from Monday afternoon into the evening and overnight period. On Monday, the western trough will take on a negative tilt before ejecting across the central Plains, with strong southwesterly flow aloft overspreading the region. This will result in strong lee cyclone development across western Kansas. A surface cold front will extend northward to a secondary surface low across the upper Midwest. A dryline will extend southward across portions of western Kansas into western Oklahoma. Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the cold front and further south along the dryline Monday afternoon and evening from Nebraska into central Kansas. Given the volatile air mass ahead of these features, with moderate to strong instability and strengthening deep layer shear, initial development will likely be supercellular. Initial supercells will pose risk of all hazards including large to very large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes. As the southwesterly low-level jet increases into the evening, large clockwise enhancement of low-level hodographs across portions of central Kansas into northern Oklahoma may lead to an increasing risk for strong to intense tornadoes. Additional thunderstorm development will spread in tandem with the cold front from the central Plains to the upper Midwest through the evening, with potential for more widespread damaging wind and a few tornadoes (some of which may be strong).

Tuesday/Day 5 to Thursday/Day 7

Severe potential is expected to continue D5/Tuesday as the cold front extends from the upper Midwest to southern Plains. Strong to moderate instability ahead of the front will continue to support severe storms from the northern part of the southern Plains northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Trends are for the front to shift eastward faster than originally expected, and as such probabilities were shifted eastward with this update. Strong to severe storms may extend further north into the northeast and Great Lakes Region.

On Wednesday and Thursday, the cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon and evening. However, uncertainty concerning the exact location of the front is substantial at this extended range.

..Thornton.. 05/15/2026

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Outlook for Wednesday, May 20

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Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150901 SPC AC 150901

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/MON

### DISCUSSION

Monday/Day 4

A severe weather outbreak will be possible from Monday afternoon into the evening and overnight period. On Monday, the western trough will take on a negative tilt before ejecting across the central Plains, with strong southwesterly flow aloft overspreading the region. This will result in strong lee cyclone development across western Kansas. A surface cold front will extend northward to a secondary surface low across the upper Midwest. A dryline will extend southward across portions of western Kansas into western Oklahoma. Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the cold front and further south along the dryline Monday afternoon and evening from Nebraska into central Kansas. Given the volatile air mass ahead of these features, with moderate to strong instability and strengthening deep layer shear, initial development will likely be supercellular. Initial supercells will pose risk of all hazards including large to very large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes. As the southwesterly low-level jet increases into the evening, large clockwise enhancement of low-level hodographs across portions of central Kansas into northern Oklahoma may lead to an increasing risk for strong to intense tornadoes. Additional thunderstorm development will spread in tandem with the cold front from the central Plains to the upper Midwest through the evening, with potential for more widespread damaging wind and a few tornadoes (some of which may be strong).

Tuesday/Day 5 to Thursday/Day 7

Severe potential is expected to continue D5/Tuesday as the cold front extends from the upper Midwest to southern Plains. Strong to moderate instability ahead of the front will continue to support severe storms from the northern part of the southern Plains northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Trends are for the front to shift eastward faster than originally expected, and as such probabilities were shifted eastward with this update. Strong to severe storms may extend further north into the northeast and Great Lakes Region.

On Wednesday and Thursday, the cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon and evening. However, uncertainty concerning the exact location of the front is substantial at this extended range.

..Thornton.. 05/15/2026

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Outlook for Thursday, May 21

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150901 SPC AC 150901

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/MON

### DISCUSSION

Monday/Day 4

A severe weather outbreak will be possible from Monday afternoon into the evening and overnight period. On Monday, the western trough will take on a negative tilt before ejecting across the central Plains, with strong southwesterly flow aloft overspreading the region. This will result in strong lee cyclone development across western Kansas. A surface cold front will extend northward to a secondary surface low across the upper Midwest. A dryline will extend southward across portions of western Kansas into western Oklahoma. Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the cold front and further south along the dryline Monday afternoon and evening from Nebraska into central Kansas. Given the volatile air mass ahead of these features, with moderate to strong instability and strengthening deep layer shear, initial development will likely be supercellular. Initial supercells will pose risk of all hazards including large to very large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes. As the southwesterly low-level jet increases into the evening, large clockwise enhancement of low-level hodographs across portions of central Kansas into northern Oklahoma may lead to an increasing risk for strong to intense tornadoes. Additional thunderstorm development will spread in tandem with the cold front from the central Plains to the upper Midwest through the evening, with potential for more widespread damaging wind and a few tornadoes (some of which may be strong).

Tuesday/Day 5 to Thursday/Day 7

Severe potential is expected to continue D5/Tuesday as the cold front extends from the upper Midwest to southern Plains. Strong to moderate instability ahead of the front will continue to support severe storms from the northern part of the southern Plains northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Trends are for the front to shift eastward faster than originally expected, and as such probabilities were shifted eastward with this update. Strong to severe storms may extend further north into the northeast and Great Lakes Region.

On Wednesday and Thursday, the cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon and evening. However, uncertainty concerning the exact location of the front is substantial at this extended range.

..Thornton.. 05/15/2026

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Outlook for Friday, May 22

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150901 SPC AC 150901

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/MON

### DISCUSSION

Monday/Day 4

A severe weather outbreak will be possible from Monday afternoon into the evening and overnight period. On Monday, the western trough will take on a negative tilt before ejecting across the central Plains, with strong southwesterly flow aloft overspreading the region. This will result in strong lee cyclone development across western Kansas. A surface cold front will extend northward to a secondary surface low across the upper Midwest. A dryline will extend southward across portions of western Kansas into western Oklahoma. Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the cold front and further south along the dryline Monday afternoon and evening from Nebraska into central Kansas. Given the volatile air mass ahead of these features, with moderate to strong instability and strengthening deep layer shear, initial development will likely be supercellular. Initial supercells will pose risk of all hazards including large to very large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes. As the southwesterly low-level jet increases into the evening, large clockwise enhancement of low-level hodographs across portions of central Kansas into northern Oklahoma may lead to an increasing risk for strong to intense tornadoes. Additional thunderstorm development will spread in tandem with the cold front from the central Plains to the upper Midwest through the evening, with potential for more widespread damaging wind and a few tornadoes (some of which may be strong).

Tuesday/Day 5 to Thursday/Day 7

Severe potential is expected to continue D5/Tuesday as the cold front extends from the upper Midwest to southern Plains. Strong to moderate instability ahead of the front will continue to support severe storms from the northern part of the southern Plains northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Trends are for the front to shift eastward faster than originally expected, and as such probabilities were shifted eastward with this update. Strong to severe storms may extend further north into the northeast and Great Lakes Region.

On Wednesday and Thursday, the cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon and evening. However, uncertainty concerning the exact location of the front is substantial at this extended range.

..Thornton.. 05/15/2026

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National Risk Overview

Friday, May 15

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 30%

Saturday, May 16

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Sunday, May 17

ANY SEVERE: 30%

Monday, May 18

ANY SEVERE: 30%

Tuesday, May 19

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Wednesday, May 20

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Thursday, May 21

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, May 22

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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