Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, June 24
Outlook Summary
Widely scattered but intense severe thunderstorms should occur this afternoon and evening across parts of the central High Plains, with a threat for large to very large hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes all possible.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 241255
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026
Valid 241300Z - 251200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
### THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF UTAH AND PORTIONS OF WISCONSIN INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS
### SUMMARY
Widely scattered but intense severe thunderstorms should occur this afternoon and evening across parts of the central High Plains, with a threat for large to very large hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes all possible.
Central/Southern High Plains
Post-frontal low-level moisture will remain over the central High Plains today. As daytime heating occurs and low-level clouds present this morning gradually erode, 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE should develop by mid to late afternoon in a narrow corridor across northeast CO into southeast WY. This instability will also be aided by the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates. Thunderstorms should eventually develop this afternoon across much the region as strong mid-level west-northwesterly flow associated with a shortwave trough over the northern Plains overspreads the central Rockies/High Plains. The highest convective coverage is anticipated from south-central/southeast WY into northeast/east-central CO, where buoyancy should be maximized. Deep-layer shear will be rather strong, with values up to 50-60 kt. These conditions will support the potential for intense supercells capable of large to very large hail (isolated 2-4 inches in diameter possible). Notable low-level curvature of the hodograph could support a tornado or two in this region as well. Eventual upscale growth into a southeastward-moving MCS capable of producing severe winds is probable into eastern CO/western KS this evening, with some 75+ mph gusts possible.
Lower thunderstorm coverage is anticipated farther south into the southern High Plains, with warmer temperatures and higher cloud bases suggesting a predominantly outflow-dominant mode. Strong to severe gusts will be the primary risk, although isolated hail may also occur.
Upper Midwest
A belt of 40-50 kt westerly mid-level flow will overspread WI and vicinity today as a weak shortwave trough moves across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes through the period. Extensive cloudiness is prevalent across WI this morning, which will delay daytime heating to some extent. But, seasonably cool temperatures aloft will aid up to around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE through peak afternoon heating along/ahead of a weak cold front. Current expectations are for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop this afternoon with moderate to locally strong deep-layer shear providing support for updraft organization. A mix of multicells and supercells should pose a threat for severe hail and damaging winds as they spread east-southeastward through the afternoon and evening before eventually weakening. Enough confidence exists in this scenario occurring to include greater severe hail probabilities and a corresponding Slight Risk.
Great Basin/Four Corners
Current surface observations indicate rather dry conditions across the Great Basin/Four Corners regions this morning. Still, greater low/mid-level moisture is forecast to advect northeastward through the day as a weak mid-level shortwave trough advances east-northeastward from the lower CO River Valley across the Great Basin. The boundary layer is expected to become very well mixed with strong daytime heating that will occur this afternoon, with weak instability present. Modestly enhanced mid-level flow will aid in northeastward thunderstorm motions, and some potential exists for strong/gusty outflow winds across a large area this afternoon and early evening. Have maintained the Slight Risk for severe winds across parts of UT with no changes, as this area still appears to have the best overlap of low-level moisture/instability and scattered to numerous thunderstorm coverage.
Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley
Mainly elevated thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across northern OK/southern KS, likely aided by weak low-level warm advection. Recent radar imagery suggests this activity may be acquiring an MCV circulation. This feature should track southeastward towards the ArkLaTex through the day, generally along and north of a surface front stalled near the Red River. Eventual re-strengthening of convection may occur, even though deep-layer flow and related shear should remain rather modest. Isolated hail and damaging winds may occur with the strongest cores that form, but the potential for a more organized bowing complex is uncertain. Farther south into the lower MS Valley, additional thunderstorms may form this afternoon ahead of the ongoing convection in northern LA in a moderately to strongly unstable airmass. While flow through the troposphere is expected to remain fairly modest with southward extent across this region, some loosely organized clusters could pose an isolated threat for damaging winds as they spread towards the central Gulf Coast through the early evening.
Florida
Morning visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies across the FL Peninsula. A moist low-level airmass with surface dewpoints in the low to mid 70s is in place along/south of a front draped across north FL. While low/mid-level winds will remain weak today, cool mid-level temperatures and ample daytime heating will support the development of moderate to locally strong instability this afternoon. Scattered to numerous pulse-type thunderstorms are expected to develop across the interior FL Peninsula and Atlantic Coast sea breeze, with occasional damaging winds possible given steepened low-level lapse rates.
..Gleason/Jewell.. 06/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Thursday, June 25
Outlook Summary
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across portions of the High Plains with a threat for large hail and severe wind. Storms are also expected across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma into the Ozarks where large hail, severe winds, and a few tornadoes are all possible.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 240558
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO THE OZARKS.
### SUMMARY
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across portions of the High Plains with a threat for large hail and severe wind. Storms are also expected across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma into the Ozarks where large hail, severe winds, and a few tornadoes are all possible.
Synopsis
A low-amplitude shortwave trough will move through the Great Lakes during the day on Thursday. A weak surface low will move across Ontario with a trailing cold front into the Ohio Valley. Farther west, several mid-level shortwave troughs will be embedded within the broader zonal flow across the Plains. The most prominant feature will be a mid-level shortwave trough that is forecast to move from eastern Colorado Thursday morning to the Ozarks by the evening. A lee surface cyclone is forecast in the Texas Panhandle vicinity.
High Plains
Widespread convection/cloud cover is likely from northern Colorado into eastern Wyoming on Thursday morning. This will limit surface-based instability across the region for much of the day. Eventual destabilization is expected by late afternoon/early evening as the cloud cover clears. As a mid-level shortwave trough moves through Wyoming, expect storms to develop during the evening with some severe wind potential. The lack of strong heating has lessened hail and significant wind potential across this region. Therefore, the CIG1 area has been removed.
Farther south, stronger heating/destabilization is expected which, combined with moderate mid-level flow, may support some supercell threat with weak upslope flow across southeast Kansas, and continuing east along the frontal boundary into the OK/TX Panhandles.
Northern Oklahoma/southern Kansas into the Ozarks
A morning MCS is expected to move along/north of a frontal zone across Kansas during the morning on Thursday. In the wake of this morning MCS, strong destabilization is forecast with moderate mid-level flow aloft. Therefore, supercells are expected to develop on the remnant outflow/frontal zone Thursday afternoon and evening from southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma potentially into the Ozarks. Given storm motion that should be parallel to the boundary, the enhanced vorticity along this zone could result in a locally greater tornado threat. In addition, most guidance shows a strengthening low-level jet across Oklahoma and into southern Kansas. This may support a strong tornado threat, particularly during the evening.
Eastern Ohio to southern New York
Weak to moderate instability is expected to develop across eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania Thursday morning with dewpoints in the mid 60s. Moderate to strong forcing on the leading edge of a compact mid-level jet streak should result in storm development along the front by mid-afternoon. Strong shear should assist in storm organization, but weak lapse rates may limit overall updraft strength. Due to the weak to moderate instability and strong shear, 5% wind probabilities are warranted.
..Bentley.. 06/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Friday, June 26
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible across the High Plains and across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma into southern Missouri and northern Arkansas on Friday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 240721
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE OZARKS.
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible across the High Plains and across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma into southern Missouri and northern Arkansas on Friday.
Synopsis
A strong mid-level shortwave trough will move from the eastern Pacific into the Northwest CONUS on Friday with the trough continuing to deepen through the period. An elongated mid-level jet streak will stretch from the California coast to the northern Plains by 12Z Saturday. Surface low pressure will exist across the Inter-Mountain West as this trough amplifies and will eventually consolidate as a lee cyclone across the northern Plains by the end of the period.
High Plains
Moderate to strong instability is forecast across the High Plains on Friday as a dryline develops along the lee trough. Ridging should limit overall convective coverage, but with 30 to 35 knots of mid-level flow, isolated supercells are possible with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts.
Southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma into the Ozarks
Strong instability is forecast along a frontal boundary that will exist from the OK/KS border into southern Missouri where dewpoints will be in the low to mid 70s. Upper-level forcing will be weak, with neutral to perhaps slightly rising heights. Therefore, the strong instability and forecast soundings showing an uncapped airmass near a frontal zone will support the potential for strong to severe storms Friday afternoon/evening. In addition, the low-level jet is forecast to strengthen Friday evening which may provide additional support for storm development, even if it doesn't occur during daytime heating.
..Bentley.. 06/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Saturday, June 27
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, June 27 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Sunday, June 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, June 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, June 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, July 1 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240842 SPC AC 240842
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Saturday - Northern Plains
A strong trough will advance into the Northwest CONUS on Saturday with a strong mid-level jet extending from the Great Basin to the northern Plains. A lee cyclone will develop across eastern Wyoming into western South Dakota. Southerly flow will strengthen and advect low to mid 60s dewpoints northward. This will lead to strong instability by the late afternoon across the western Dakotas. There is still some uncertainty with the evolution of the upper-level trough which will have some impact in the timing and location of the severe weather threat on Saturday. At this time, have confined the 15% area to where the greatest severe weather threat appears likely Saturday afternoon/evening, but this area may need to be refined in future outlooks.
Day 5 and Beyond
Severe weather will be possible across portions of the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest Sunday and into next week. However, predictability remains too low to highlight areas in this timeframe. The presence of strong to very strong instability across a large region with multiple shortwave troughs emerging from the primary trough centered over the West will surely support severe weather potential most days. However, probabilities for specific areas cannot be added until the upper-level pattern becomes more clear.
..Bentley.. 06/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, June 28
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, June 27 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Sunday, June 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, June 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, June 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, July 1 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240842 SPC AC 240842
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Saturday - Northern Plains
A strong trough will advance into the Northwest CONUS on Saturday with a strong mid-level jet extending from the Great Basin to the northern Plains. A lee cyclone will develop across eastern Wyoming into western South Dakota. Southerly flow will strengthen and advect low to mid 60s dewpoints northward. This will lead to strong instability by the late afternoon across the western Dakotas. There is still some uncertainty with the evolution of the upper-level trough which will have some impact in the timing and location of the severe weather threat on Saturday. At this time, have confined the 15% area to where the greatest severe weather threat appears likely Saturday afternoon/evening, but this area may need to be refined in future outlooks.
Day 5 and Beyond
Severe weather will be possible across portions of the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest Sunday and into next week. However, predictability remains too low to highlight areas in this timeframe. The presence of strong to very strong instability across a large region with multiple shortwave troughs emerging from the primary trough centered over the West will surely support severe weather potential most days. However, probabilities for specific areas cannot be added until the upper-level pattern becomes more clear.
..Bentley.. 06/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, June 29
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, June 27 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Sunday, June 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, June 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, June 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, July 1 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240842 SPC AC 240842
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Saturday - Northern Plains
A strong trough will advance into the Northwest CONUS on Saturday with a strong mid-level jet extending from the Great Basin to the northern Plains. A lee cyclone will develop across eastern Wyoming into western South Dakota. Southerly flow will strengthen and advect low to mid 60s dewpoints northward. This will lead to strong instability by the late afternoon across the western Dakotas. There is still some uncertainty with the evolution of the upper-level trough which will have some impact in the timing and location of the severe weather threat on Saturday. At this time, have confined the 15% area to where the greatest severe weather threat appears likely Saturday afternoon/evening, but this area may need to be refined in future outlooks.
Day 5 and Beyond
Severe weather will be possible across portions of the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest Sunday and into next week. However, predictability remains too low to highlight areas in this timeframe. The presence of strong to very strong instability across a large region with multiple shortwave troughs emerging from the primary trough centered over the West will surely support severe weather potential most days. However, probabilities for specific areas cannot be added until the upper-level pattern becomes more clear.
..Bentley.. 06/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, June 30
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, June 27 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Sunday, June 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, June 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, June 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, July 1 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240842 SPC AC 240842
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Saturday - Northern Plains
A strong trough will advance into the Northwest CONUS on Saturday with a strong mid-level jet extending from the Great Basin to the northern Plains. A lee cyclone will develop across eastern Wyoming into western South Dakota. Southerly flow will strengthen and advect low to mid 60s dewpoints northward. This will lead to strong instability by the late afternoon across the western Dakotas. There is still some uncertainty with the evolution of the upper-level trough which will have some impact in the timing and location of the severe weather threat on Saturday. At this time, have confined the 15% area to where the greatest severe weather threat appears likely Saturday afternoon/evening, but this area may need to be refined in future outlooks.
Day 5 and Beyond
Severe weather will be possible across portions of the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest Sunday and into next week. However, predictability remains too low to highlight areas in this timeframe. The presence of strong to very strong instability across a large region with multiple shortwave troughs emerging from the primary trough centered over the West will surely support severe weather potential most days. However, probabilities for specific areas cannot be added until the upper-level pattern becomes more clear.
..Bentley.. 06/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, July 1
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, June 27 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Sunday, June 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, June 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, June 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, July 1 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240842 SPC AC 240842
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Saturday - Northern Plains
A strong trough will advance into the Northwest CONUS on Saturday with a strong mid-level jet extending from the Great Basin to the northern Plains. A lee cyclone will develop across eastern Wyoming into western South Dakota. Southerly flow will strengthen and advect low to mid 60s dewpoints northward. This will lead to strong instability by the late afternoon across the western Dakotas. There is still some uncertainty with the evolution of the upper-level trough which will have some impact in the timing and location of the severe weather threat on Saturday. At this time, have confined the 15% area to where the greatest severe weather threat appears likely Saturday afternoon/evening, but this area may need to be refined in future outlooks.
Day 5 and Beyond
Severe weather will be possible across portions of the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest Sunday and into next week. However, predictability remains too low to highlight areas in this timeframe. The presence of strong to very strong instability across a large region with multiple shortwave troughs emerging from the primary trough centered over the West will surely support severe weather potential most days. However, probabilities for specific areas cannot be added until the upper-level pattern becomes more clear.
..Bentley.. 06/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, June 24
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Thursday, June 25
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Friday, June 26
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Saturday, June 27
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Sunday, June 28
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, June 29
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, June 30
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, July 1
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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