Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, October 18
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 181230
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026
Valid 181300Z - 191200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
Synopsis and Discussion
Even with east-northeasterly low-level flow persisting to the north of a remnant cold front, diurnal heating of a moist airmass will support sufficient instability for isolated to scattered thunderstorms across parts of south FL and the Keys today. Occasional lightning flashes may also occur with convection across parts of the Southwest ahead of a low-amplitude mid-level shortwave trough. Weak shear across south FL and limited moisture/instability over AZ/NM will hinder the potential for severe thunderstorms across both regions. Dry and/or stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms for the remainder of the CONUS through the period.
..Gleason/Kerr.. 10/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Monday, October 19
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected tomorrow (Monday).
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 180550
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected tomorrow (Monday).
Synopsis
A mid-level cut-off low will continue to meander off of the East Coast while an upper trough amplifies over the western U.S. and an upper ridge dominates the central CONUS tomorrow (Monday). Surface high pressure and accompanying subsidence should limit thunderstorm development over most locales east of the Rockies. A couple of thunderstorms may develop over the FL Keys given adequate surface heating of a moist low-level airmass. A few thunderstorms may also occur over the Desert Southwest to the Four Corners, where cooler temperatures aloft with a mid-level impulse overspreads modest low-level moisture.
..Squitieri.. 10/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Tuesday, October 20
Outlook Summary
No severe thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 180729
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
No severe thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday.
Synopsis
An upper trough will amplify while progressing into the Interior West on Tuesday. As this occurs, deep-layer ascent and cooler temperatures aloft will encourage at least isolated thunderstorm development over multiple locales. Preceding the main upper trough, a 500 mb wind maximum accompanying multiple low-amplitude impulses will overspread low-level moisture over the Desert Southwest, as well as portions of the Great Basin, resulting in thunderstorms by Tuesday afternoon. By later Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, deep-layer ascent associated with the approach of the primary upper trough will overspread parts of CA. Cooler temperatures aloft will overspread a marine boundary layer, encouraging lightning flashes along the CA shoreline late in the period.
..Squitieri.. 10/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Wednesday, October 21
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, October 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, October 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, October 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, October 24 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180755 SPC AC 180755
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the Interior West Wednesday-Friday, before ejecting into the central and northern Plains by the weekend. As the upper trough traverses the Interior West, modest low-level moisture will advect ahead of it across the Desert Southwest to the High Plains late next week into the weekend. Despite strong forcing accompanying the upper trough, deterministic guidance still shows relatively weak buoyancy across the warm sector over the Southwest to the High Plains, with only occasional favorable overlaps with stronger vertical wind shear. Such setups would typically favor strong to isolated severe storms, as also indicated by a consensus of available ML/AI calibrated guidance.
..Squitieri.. 10/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, October 22
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, October 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, October 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, October 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, October 24 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180755 SPC AC 180755
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the Interior West Wednesday-Friday, before ejecting into the central and northern Plains by the weekend. As the upper trough traverses the Interior West, modest low-level moisture will advect ahead of it across the Desert Southwest to the High Plains late next week into the weekend. Despite strong forcing accompanying the upper trough, deterministic guidance still shows relatively weak buoyancy across the warm sector over the Southwest to the High Plains, with only occasional favorable overlaps with stronger vertical wind shear. Such setups would typically favor strong to isolated severe storms, as also indicated by a consensus of available ML/AI calibrated guidance.
..Squitieri.. 10/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, October 23
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, October 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, October 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, October 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, October 24 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180755 SPC AC 180755
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the Interior West Wednesday-Friday, before ejecting into the central and northern Plains by the weekend. As the upper trough traverses the Interior West, modest low-level moisture will advect ahead of it across the Desert Southwest to the High Plains late next week into the weekend. Despite strong forcing accompanying the upper trough, deterministic guidance still shows relatively weak buoyancy across the warm sector over the Southwest to the High Plains, with only occasional favorable overlaps with stronger vertical wind shear. Such setups would typically favor strong to isolated severe storms, as also indicated by a consensus of available ML/AI calibrated guidance.
..Squitieri.. 10/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, October 24
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, October 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, October 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, October 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, October 24 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180755 SPC AC 180755
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the Interior West Wednesday-Friday, before ejecting into the central and northern Plains by the weekend. As the upper trough traverses the Interior West, modest low-level moisture will advect ahead of it across the Desert Southwest to the High Plains late next week into the weekend. Despite strong forcing accompanying the upper trough, deterministic guidance still shows relatively weak buoyancy across the warm sector over the Southwest to the High Plains, with only occasional favorable overlaps with stronger vertical wind shear. Such setups would typically favor strong to isolated severe storms, as also indicated by a consensus of available ML/AI calibrated guidance.
..Squitieri.. 10/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, October 25
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, October 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, October 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, October 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, October 24 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180755 SPC AC 180755
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the Interior West Wednesday-Friday, before ejecting into the central and northern Plains by the weekend. As the upper trough traverses the Interior West, modest low-level moisture will advect ahead of it across the Desert Southwest to the High Plains late next week into the weekend. Despite strong forcing accompanying the upper trough, deterministic guidance still shows relatively weak buoyancy across the warm sector over the Southwest to the High Plains, with only occasional favorable overlaps with stronger vertical wind shear. Such setups would typically favor strong to isolated severe storms, as also indicated by a consensus of available ML/AI calibrated guidance.
..Squitieri.. 10/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, October 18
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Monday, October 19
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, October 20
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Wednesday, October 21
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, October 22
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, October 23
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, October 24
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, October 25
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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