Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Friday, March 13

Saturday, March 14

Sunday, March 15

Monday, March 16

Tuesday, March 17

Wednesday, March 18

Thursday, March 19

Outlook for Friday, March 13

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 130520

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

South Florida

Neutral-weak height rises are forecast across the FL Peninsula during the day1 period as midlevel flow gradually weakens across low latitudes, including the eastern Gulf basin/south FL. Latest diagnostic data depicts a weak surface boundary extends across the southern tip of the peninsula, and this feature is forecast to migrate toward the western tip of the south FL Peninsula by the end of the period. Modest daytime heating should contribute to weak buoyancy and scattered convection is expected to develop within this weak-flow regime. Forecast lapse rates/instability appear too weak to warrant a meaningful risk for severe thunderstorms today.

..Darrow/Thornton.. 03/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Saturday, March 14

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 130508

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.

Synopsis and Discussion

On Saturday, a strong upper trough will dig into the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies during the day, and into the northern and central High Plains by 12Z Sunday. To the east, an upper trough will exit New England, with rapid height rises across much of the Northeast overnight.

At the surface, most of the CONUS will remain relatively stable for much of the period with high pressure ridge from the Great Lakes into the Southeast, and extending across the northern Gulf of America. The exception during the day will be over the FL Peninsula, where weak east to southeast winds will maintain mid to upper 60s F dewpoints.

FL

Daytime heating and surface convergence will lead to a few thunderstorms by afternoon over the interior Peninsula and along the Atlantic Coast. Forecast soundings show relatively warm and dry midlevels, with lightly veering winds with height. The end result should be non-severe thunderstorms, though locally gusty winds are always possible.

Elsewhere

Though little thunderstorm activity is expected through Sunday morning, a powerful upper trough will develop across the Rockies and into the High Plains into Sunday. Sporadic lightning cannot be ruled out over western WY and vicinity as the left-exit region of the midlevel jet moves overhead. A surface low will then develop overnight into the central Plains, and this will bring a warm front north into southern IA. Overall moisture at this time appears meager, but isolated lightning cannot totally be ruled out with any highly elevated convective showers Sunday morning across northern IA into MN and WI well north of the warm front.

..Jewell.. 03/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Sunday, March 15

Outlook Summary

Potential for a widespread damaging wind event along with a few tornadoes exists from Sunday afternoon through Sunday night from northeast Texas to southwest Lower Michigan. The greatest threat appears to be from northeast Arkansas into Indiana during the evening and overnight hours.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 30%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 130726

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO INDIANA

### SUMMARY

Potential for a widespread damaging wind event along with a few tornadoes exists from Sunday afternoon through Sunday night from northeast Texas to southwest Lower Michigan. The greatest threat appears to be from northeast Arkansas into Indiana during the evening and overnight hours.

Discussion

On Sunday, a powerful upper trough will move across the Plains during the day, with a strong midlevel speed max nosing into MO by 00Z. Shortly thereafter and over the next 12 hours, the trough will rapidly deepen, with an intense mid and high level jet developing across AR, MO, IL and IN.

At the surface, low pressure is forecast to move across northern MO and into IL, with a prominent cold front extending southwestward across MO western AR, and northeast TX. Low-level moisture quality will gradually improve throughout the period, with mid 50s F into southern MO by 00Z and as far north as IN and OH by 12Z Monday morning.

Initial activity will occur along the cold front during the late afternoon where instability will be strongest, perhaps as high as 1000 J/kg from AR into TX. It should be noted that substantial variability exists among models regarding instability and capping, though strong ascent near the front should mitigate these factors. Hail and damaging gusts may occur with the late afternoon activity.

Of greatest concern is potential for a severe squall line capable of widespread wind damage, along with a few tornadoes, developing during the evening across northeast AR, southeast MO, much of southern IL, central and southern IN, western KY and TN. The shear environment will be rapidly increasing during this time, and while forecast soundings show low levels of instability, it will be more than sufficient to sustain a strongly forced QLCS, producing corridors of significant wind damage and a few embedded tornadoes. Southerly winds at 850 mb along the front may exceed 70 kt, with a very strong frontal surge out of the west.

The envelope of greatest threat will likely shift in later outlooks as the event nears and predictability increases.

..Jewell.. 03/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Monday, March 16

Outlook Images

any severe 15%

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, March 15	low / uncertain
Day 5	Monday, March 16	15%
Day 6	Tuesday, March 17	potential too low
Day 7	Wednesday, March 18	potential too low
Day 8	Thursday, March 19	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120815 SPC AC 120815

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Sunday - ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley into the Middle MS/Lower OH Valleys

An intense upper trough will deepen over the Plains and shift east to the MS Valley on Sunday. From late afternoon into the nighttime hours, an 80-100 kt jet streak will develop within the base of the trough and overspread portions of the region. At the surface, an already strong cyclone will deepen further as it moves from the Lower MO Valley to the Lower Great Lakes vicinity. As this occurs, a strong cold front will sweep eastward across the southern Plains and much of the Midwest and Southern U.S., becoming oriented from Ohio to the FL Panhandle by Monday morning.

While strengthening southerly low-level flow will develop ahead of the front, stronger Gulf moisture return will be confined to TX and the Lower MS Valley vicinity, with mainly 50s dewpoints expected with northward extent across the Middle MS and OH Valley regions. Furthermore, capping is expected ahead of the cold front, potentially limiting warm sector convection. Nevertheless, modest moisture and steepening midlevel lapse rates will support at least weak destabilization very near the cold front. A narrow line of strongly-forced convection is expected to develop along the cold front and move across portions of OK/TX into the Middle/Lower MS and Lower OH/TN Valley regions. Given intense deep-layer flow near and just behind the cold front, strong/damaging wind potential will exist within a modest instability/high shear environment. A 15 percent severe delineation has been included from the ArkLaTex into the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley vicinity. Depending on low-level moisture/instability trends, this area may need to be expanded north and east into a larger portion of the Middle MS/Lower OH/TN Valley vicinity in subsequent outlooks.

Day 5/Monday - Southeast to Mid-Atlantic

Severe thunderstorm potential will likely continue into Monday as the intense upper trough continues to migrate east from the MS Valley toward the Eastern Seaboard. Intense deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile, 60s F dewpoints will extend from southeast GA northward through the Mid-Atlantic ahead of a sharp cold front. Pre-frontal surface troughing across the VA/NC Piedmont also will support backing low-level winds, leading to enhanced low-level shear. Depending on how much cloud cover and warm advection precipitation occurs ahead of the cold front, stronger destabilization may be inhibited. Nevertheless, at least weak instability is forecast ahead of a strongly forced line of convection along the eastward-advancing cold front. This activity alone could produce a swath of strong to severe wind gusts. A more conditional risk of supercells across the warm sector exists across eastern VA/NC, but this is more uncertain. Given damaging wind potential with the strongly forced linear convection, a 15 percent severe delineation has been added for portions of the region.

Days 6-8/Tuesday-Thursday

Severe thunderstorm potential will be low Tuesday through Thursday as strong surface high pressure builds in the wake of the earlier cold frontal passage. A dry/stable airmass will prevail as Gulf moisture remains well offshore.

..Leitman.. 03/12/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Tuesday, March 17

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, March 15	low / uncertain
Day 5	Monday, March 16	15%
Day 6	Tuesday, March 17	potential too low
Day 7	Wednesday, March 18	potential too low
Day 8	Thursday, March 19	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120815 SPC AC 120815

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Sunday - ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley into the Middle MS/Lower OH Valleys

An intense upper trough will deepen over the Plains and shift east to the MS Valley on Sunday. From late afternoon into the nighttime hours, an 80-100 kt jet streak will develop within the base of the trough and overspread portions of the region. At the surface, an already strong cyclone will deepen further as it moves from the Lower MO Valley to the Lower Great Lakes vicinity. As this occurs, a strong cold front will sweep eastward across the southern Plains and much of the Midwest and Southern U.S., becoming oriented from Ohio to the FL Panhandle by Monday morning.

While strengthening southerly low-level flow will develop ahead of the front, stronger Gulf moisture return will be confined to TX and the Lower MS Valley vicinity, with mainly 50s dewpoints expected with northward extent across the Middle MS and OH Valley regions. Furthermore, capping is expected ahead of the cold front, potentially limiting warm sector convection. Nevertheless, modest moisture and steepening midlevel lapse rates will support at least weak destabilization very near the cold front. A narrow line of strongly-forced convection is expected to develop along the cold front and move across portions of OK/TX into the Middle/Lower MS and Lower OH/TN Valley regions. Given intense deep-layer flow near and just behind the cold front, strong/damaging wind potential will exist within a modest instability/high shear environment. A 15 percent severe delineation has been included from the ArkLaTex into the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley vicinity. Depending on low-level moisture/instability trends, this area may need to be expanded north and east into a larger portion of the Middle MS/Lower OH/TN Valley vicinity in subsequent outlooks.

Day 5/Monday - Southeast to Mid-Atlantic

Severe thunderstorm potential will likely continue into Monday as the intense upper trough continues to migrate east from the MS Valley toward the Eastern Seaboard. Intense deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile, 60s F dewpoints will extend from southeast GA northward through the Mid-Atlantic ahead of a sharp cold front. Pre-frontal surface troughing across the VA/NC Piedmont also will support backing low-level winds, leading to enhanced low-level shear. Depending on how much cloud cover and warm advection precipitation occurs ahead of the cold front, stronger destabilization may be inhibited. Nevertheless, at least weak instability is forecast ahead of a strongly forced line of convection along the eastward-advancing cold front. This activity alone could produce a swath of strong to severe wind gusts. A more conditional risk of supercells across the warm sector exists across eastern VA/NC, but this is more uncertain. Given damaging wind potential with the strongly forced linear convection, a 15 percent severe delineation has been added for portions of the region.

Days 6-8/Tuesday-Thursday

Severe thunderstorm potential will be low Tuesday through Thursday as strong surface high pressure builds in the wake of the earlier cold frontal passage. A dry/stable airmass will prevail as Gulf moisture remains well offshore.

..Leitman.. 03/12/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Wednesday, March 18

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, March 15	low / uncertain
Day 5	Monday, March 16	15%
Day 6	Tuesday, March 17	potential too low
Day 7	Wednesday, March 18	potential too low
Day 8	Thursday, March 19	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120815 SPC AC 120815

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Sunday - ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley into the Middle MS/Lower OH Valleys

An intense upper trough will deepen over the Plains and shift east to the MS Valley on Sunday. From late afternoon into the nighttime hours, an 80-100 kt jet streak will develop within the base of the trough and overspread portions of the region. At the surface, an already strong cyclone will deepen further as it moves from the Lower MO Valley to the Lower Great Lakes vicinity. As this occurs, a strong cold front will sweep eastward across the southern Plains and much of the Midwest and Southern U.S., becoming oriented from Ohio to the FL Panhandle by Monday morning.

While strengthening southerly low-level flow will develop ahead of the front, stronger Gulf moisture return will be confined to TX and the Lower MS Valley vicinity, with mainly 50s dewpoints expected with northward extent across the Middle MS and OH Valley regions. Furthermore, capping is expected ahead of the cold front, potentially limiting warm sector convection. Nevertheless, modest moisture and steepening midlevel lapse rates will support at least weak destabilization very near the cold front. A narrow line of strongly-forced convection is expected to develop along the cold front and move across portions of OK/TX into the Middle/Lower MS and Lower OH/TN Valley regions. Given intense deep-layer flow near and just behind the cold front, strong/damaging wind potential will exist within a modest instability/high shear environment. A 15 percent severe delineation has been included from the ArkLaTex into the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley vicinity. Depending on low-level moisture/instability trends, this area may need to be expanded north and east into a larger portion of the Middle MS/Lower OH/TN Valley vicinity in subsequent outlooks.

Day 5/Monday - Southeast to Mid-Atlantic

Severe thunderstorm potential will likely continue into Monday as the intense upper trough continues to migrate east from the MS Valley toward the Eastern Seaboard. Intense deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile, 60s F dewpoints will extend from southeast GA northward through the Mid-Atlantic ahead of a sharp cold front. Pre-frontal surface troughing across the VA/NC Piedmont also will support backing low-level winds, leading to enhanced low-level shear. Depending on how much cloud cover and warm advection precipitation occurs ahead of the cold front, stronger destabilization may be inhibited. Nevertheless, at least weak instability is forecast ahead of a strongly forced line of convection along the eastward-advancing cold front. This activity alone could produce a swath of strong to severe wind gusts. A more conditional risk of supercells across the warm sector exists across eastern VA/NC, but this is more uncertain. Given damaging wind potential with the strongly forced linear convection, a 15 percent severe delineation has been added for portions of the region.

Days 6-8/Tuesday-Thursday

Severe thunderstorm potential will be low Tuesday through Thursday as strong surface high pressure builds in the wake of the earlier cold frontal passage. A dry/stable airmass will prevail as Gulf moisture remains well offshore.

..Leitman.. 03/12/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Thursday, March 19

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, March 15	low / uncertain
Day 5	Monday, March 16	15%
Day 6	Tuesday, March 17	potential too low
Day 7	Wednesday, March 18	potential too low
Day 8	Thursday, March 19	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120815 SPC AC 120815

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Sunday - ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley into the Middle MS/Lower OH Valleys

An intense upper trough will deepen over the Plains and shift east to the MS Valley on Sunday. From late afternoon into the nighttime hours, an 80-100 kt jet streak will develop within the base of the trough and overspread portions of the region. At the surface, an already strong cyclone will deepen further as it moves from the Lower MO Valley to the Lower Great Lakes vicinity. As this occurs, a strong cold front will sweep eastward across the southern Plains and much of the Midwest and Southern U.S., becoming oriented from Ohio to the FL Panhandle by Monday morning.

While strengthening southerly low-level flow will develop ahead of the front, stronger Gulf moisture return will be confined to TX and the Lower MS Valley vicinity, with mainly 50s dewpoints expected with northward extent across the Middle MS and OH Valley regions. Furthermore, capping is expected ahead of the cold front, potentially limiting warm sector convection. Nevertheless, modest moisture and steepening midlevel lapse rates will support at least weak destabilization very near the cold front. A narrow line of strongly-forced convection is expected to develop along the cold front and move across portions of OK/TX into the Middle/Lower MS and Lower OH/TN Valley regions. Given intense deep-layer flow near and just behind the cold front, strong/damaging wind potential will exist within a modest instability/high shear environment. A 15 percent severe delineation has been included from the ArkLaTex into the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley vicinity. Depending on low-level moisture/instability trends, this area may need to be expanded north and east into a larger portion of the Middle MS/Lower OH/TN Valley vicinity in subsequent outlooks.

Day 5/Monday - Southeast to Mid-Atlantic

Severe thunderstorm potential will likely continue into Monday as the intense upper trough continues to migrate east from the MS Valley toward the Eastern Seaboard. Intense deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile, 60s F dewpoints will extend from southeast GA northward through the Mid-Atlantic ahead of a sharp cold front. Pre-frontal surface troughing across the VA/NC Piedmont also will support backing low-level winds, leading to enhanced low-level shear. Depending on how much cloud cover and warm advection precipitation occurs ahead of the cold front, stronger destabilization may be inhibited. Nevertheless, at least weak instability is forecast ahead of a strongly forced line of convection along the eastward-advancing cold front. This activity alone could produce a swath of strong to severe wind gusts. A more conditional risk of supercells across the warm sector exists across eastern VA/NC, but this is more uncertain. Given damaging wind potential with the strongly forced linear convection, a 15 percent severe delineation has been added for portions of the region.

Days 6-8/Tuesday-Thursday

Severe thunderstorm potential will be low Tuesday through Thursday as strong surface high pressure builds in the wake of the earlier cold frontal passage. A dry/stable airmass will prevail as Gulf moisture remains well offshore.

..Leitman.. 03/12/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

National Risk Overview

Friday, March 13: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Saturday, March 14: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Sunday, March 15: ANY SEVERE: 30%
Monday, March 16: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Tuesday, March 17: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, March 18: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, March 19: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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