Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, September 15
Outlook Summary
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur from the south-central Plains into parts of the Midwest this afternoon and evening, with at least isolated damaging wind gusts possible.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 150526
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST
### SUMMARY
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur from the south-central Plains into parts of the Midwest this afternoon and evening, with at least isolated damaging wind gusts possible.
South-central Plains into parts of the Midwest
A vigorous mid/upper-level trough will move quickly eastward across Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes region today, before reaching southern Hudson Bay and Quebec by this evening. A deep surface low will accompany this system, as a trailing cold front moves across parts of the central Plains and Midwest. To the south of the ejecting trough, an upper ridge is forecast to amplify over the Southeast.
Persistent clouds and precipitation to the cool side of the front will help to reinforce the baroclinic zone as it moves southeastward through the day. The front will impinge on an increasingly warm and unstable environment by late afternoon, and scattered storm development is expected from the TX Panhandle into parts of the Midwest. The strongest mid/upper-level flow will be displaced north of the front, and low-level flow will tend to weaken through the day.
This weakening flow regime, combined with gradual midlevel height rises and an eventual tendency for storms to be undercut by the front, results in uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the organized severe threat this afternoon and evening. However, seasonably strong heating and relatively large PW and buoyancy will support potential for localized downbursts and outflow-driven clusters, with attendant damaging-wind potential. Hail potential appears generally limited by weak midlevel lapse rates and only modest deep-layer shear, though small to near-severe hail may occur with the strongest cells.
A relatively broad Marginal Risk has been maintained from the south-central Plains into the Midwest. Corridors of locally greater potential could eventually evolve within the broader risk area, especially near any pre-frontal outflow boundaries generated by early-day convection.
Parts of UT/western CO
Anomalous moisture will remain in place across parts of the Four Corners region and Southwest today. The strongest deep-layer flow/shear will reside from UT into western CO, in advance of a mid/upper-level trough over the Pacific Northwest. While a few strong storms will be possible, generally weak heating and destabilization are currently expected to limit the magnitude of the severe threat. Small hail and gusty winds could accompany the strongest storms.
..Dean/Supinie.. 09/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Wednesday, September 16
Outlook Summary
A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible across the Greater Salt Lake City vicinity Wednesday morning.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 150524
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE GREAT SALT LAKE/SALT LAKE CITY VICINITY
### SUMMARY
A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible across the Greater Salt Lake City vicinity Wednesday morning.
Discussion
Latest model output continues to indicate that an initially digging short wave trough along the Pacific coast will contribute to the evolution of a notable mid/upper low near or inland of the northern California coast by 12Z Wednesday. Cut off from the westerlies, to the south of a belt of broadly anticyclonic flow shifting inland of the British Columbia coast through the Canadian Prairies, movement thereafter likely will be slow and mostly in response to smaller-scale perturbations pivoting around its periphery.
Downstream of the broad ridging in the westerlies, at least a couple of notable short wave perturbations will remain progressive within a stronger, broadly confluent regime across the eastern Canadian Provinces through northern mid-latitude Atlantic. It appears that this will include one rapidly shifting east of northern Quebec into the Atlantic, as another digs through northern Manitoba and northwestern Ontario.
In lower latitudes, prominent mid-level ridging may maintain considerable influence across much of the central and southern Great Plains into the Mid Atlantic, as its center continues a slow west-southwestward retrogression into and across the lower Mississippi Valley/Mid South vicinity. There remains more uncertainty concerning an easterly wave approaching the southern Atlantic Seaboard and a possible mid-level perturbation suppressing the ridging across parts of the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley vicinity.
Great Basin
Beneath a difluent regime, downstream of the evolving mid-level low, latest model output is suggestive that a focused area of large-scale ascent may overspread the Great Salt Lake/Salt Lake City vicinity Wednesday morning. Based on NAM, Rapid Refresh, and RRFS forecast soundings and other guidance, it appears that this may be accompanied by low-level moistening supportive of modest boundary-layer destabilization, in the presence of strengthening deep-layer shear becoming conducive to the evolution of supercell structures. This activity will pose at least some risk for severe hail and wind. The potential for a brief tornado remains more uncertain.
Ohio into lower Missouri Valleys
A moist environment along and south of a remnant surface frontal zone, or perhaps a preceding outflow boundary, may contribute to the development of moderate mixed-layer CAPE with daytime heating. This destabilization may become supportive of scattered strong thunderstorm development during the afternoon into evening. Although spread lingers in the model output concerning the location and extent of this activity, this seems likely to remain focused within a weakly sheared regime beneath this mid-level ridging. Some of the more vigorous cells may still pose a risk for localized strong surface gusts, but the anticipated rather sparse coverage continues to preclude introduction of 5 percent severe wind probabilities at this time.
..Kerr.. 09/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Thursday, September 17
Outlook Summary
The risk for organized severe thunderstorms currently appears negligible for Thursday through Thursday night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 150730
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
The risk for organized severe thunderstorms currently appears negligible for Thursday through Thursday night.
Discussion
It appears that mid-level ridging will remain prominent across much of the central and southern Great Plains, middle and lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys through this period. A wave migrating on its southeastern periphery may gradually overspread portions of the south Atlantic Seaboard by late Thursday night. To its northwest, a cut-off low, initially inland of the northern California coast, may elongate north-northeastward through portions of the northern Intermountain Region and Great Basin.
Within the stronger westerlies, consolidating large-scale mid-level troughing is forecast to dig through northern Ontario, Quebec and adjacent portions of the Northeast. It appears that this will be accompanied by a developing area of surface low pressure, trailed by a reinforcing cool intrusion across the upper Great Lakes region and adjacent portions of the Upper Midwest. A preceding front may progress southeastward across the northern Mid Atlantic and upper into middle Ohio Valley, perhaps overtaking portions of an initially quasi-stationary boundary across the lower Ohio through lower/middle Missouri Valley vicinity.
Guidance suggests that seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content along the southern-most baroclinic zone will once again contribute to sizable CAPE with insolation Thursday. However, generally warm thermodynamic profiles and weak deep-layer mean flow/shear probably will continue to inhibit the risk for organized severe thunderstorm activity.
If forcing for ascent, associated with a subtle perturbation migrating through the northern periphery of the ridge, can support a sufficiently upscale growing thunderstorm cluster, then the environment might be conducive to the evolution of a meso-beta scale cyclonic circulation with strengthening rear inflow and potential to produce strong to severe surface gusts. While the potential for this remains uncertain at the present time, trends will continue to be monitored in later outlooks for this period.
..Kerr.. 09/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Friday, September 18
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, September 18 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, September 19 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, September 20 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, September 21 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, September 22 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150842 SPC AC 150842
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
The latest medium-range model output still suggests that an initially prominent mid-level ridge, across the central and southern Great Plains through lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys at the outset of the period, will become suppressed late this week into next weekend. But, this may be a bit slower to occur than previous guidance has suggested, and the coinciding and subsequent pattern evolution across much of North America has become more unclear due to model spread. In general, though, it still appears that modest to weak split westerlies will prevail, with little appreciable signal for substantive surface cyclogenesis. Barring appreciable change, the potential for organized severe thunderstorm development still appears low through at least early next week.
..Kerr.. 09/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, September 19
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, September 18 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, September 19 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, September 20 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, September 21 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, September 22 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150842 SPC AC 150842
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
The latest medium-range model output still suggests that an initially prominent mid-level ridge, across the central and southern Great Plains through lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys at the outset of the period, will become suppressed late this week into next weekend. But, this may be a bit slower to occur than previous guidance has suggested, and the coinciding and subsequent pattern evolution across much of North America has become more unclear due to model spread. In general, though, it still appears that modest to weak split westerlies will prevail, with little appreciable signal for substantive surface cyclogenesis. Barring appreciable change, the potential for organized severe thunderstorm development still appears low through at least early next week.
..Kerr.. 09/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, September 20
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, September 18 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, September 19 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, September 20 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, September 21 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, September 22 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150842 SPC AC 150842
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
The latest medium-range model output still suggests that an initially prominent mid-level ridge, across the central and southern Great Plains through lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys at the outset of the period, will become suppressed late this week into next weekend. But, this may be a bit slower to occur than previous guidance has suggested, and the coinciding and subsequent pattern evolution across much of North America has become more unclear due to model spread. In general, though, it still appears that modest to weak split westerlies will prevail, with little appreciable signal for substantive surface cyclogenesis. Barring appreciable change, the potential for organized severe thunderstorm development still appears low through at least early next week.
..Kerr.. 09/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, September 21
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, September 18 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, September 19 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, September 20 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, September 21 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, September 22 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150842 SPC AC 150842
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
The latest medium-range model output still suggests that an initially prominent mid-level ridge, across the central and southern Great Plains through lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys at the outset of the period, will become suppressed late this week into next weekend. But, this may be a bit slower to occur than previous guidance has suggested, and the coinciding and subsequent pattern evolution across much of North America has become more unclear due to model spread. In general, though, it still appears that modest to weak split westerlies will prevail, with little appreciable signal for substantive surface cyclogenesis. Barring appreciable change, the potential for organized severe thunderstorm development still appears low through at least early next week.
..Kerr.. 09/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, September 22
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, September 18 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, September 19 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, September 20 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, September 21 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, September 22 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150842 SPC AC 150842
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
The latest medium-range model output still suggests that an initially prominent mid-level ridge, across the central and southern Great Plains through lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys at the outset of the period, will become suppressed late this week into next weekend. But, this may be a bit slower to occur than previous guidance has suggested, and the coinciding and subsequent pattern evolution across much of North America has become more unclear due to model spread. In general, though, it still appears that modest to weak split westerlies will prevail, with little appreciable signal for substantive surface cyclogenesis. Barring appreciable change, the potential for organized severe thunderstorm development still appears low through at least early next week.
..Kerr.. 09/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, September 15
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Wednesday, September 16
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Thursday, September 17
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Friday, September 18
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, September 19
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, September 20
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, September 21
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, September 22
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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