Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Thursday, May 21

Friday, May 22

Saturday, May 23

Sunday, May 24

Monday, May 25

Tuesday, May 26

Wednesday, May 27

Thursday, May 28

Outlook for Thursday, May 21

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and isolated severe gusts should occur across parts of the central/southern High Plains this afternoon and evening. A tornado or two may also occur.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 5%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 211615

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Valid 211630Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO.

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and isolated severe gusts should occur across parts of the central/southern High Plains this afternoon and evening. A tornado or two may also occur.

High Plains

Water vapor imagery shows an upper trough moving across western WY/CO. This feature will spread weak/broad large scale forcing for ascent across much of the High Plains from SD to NM this afternoon. At the surface, southerly low level winds have resulted in an axis of 40s/50s dewpoints along this corridor. Low clouds are slowly eroding, which should result in moderate CAPE values and aid in the development of widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms.

Isolated storms will likely form first over parts of eastern NM. This activity will build slowly eastward toward west TX with a risk of large hail.

By mid/late afternoon, storms will likely develop off the Raton and Palmer ridges, spreading eastward toward western KS this evening. Shear profiles in this area will be stronger than farther south, supporting longer-lived storms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two.

An isolated cell or two may also produce occasional severe hail over parts of eastern WY and into the Black Hills region later this afternoon.

Carolinas/VA

Clear skies are leading to strong heating over parts of southern VA into part of NC/SC. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected to form in this zone, with steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE supporting a risk of gusty/damaging winds in the strongest cells.

..Hart/Lyons.. 05/21/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

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Outlook for Friday, May 22

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds are possible across western parts of Texas and Oklahoma. An isolated hail threat may extend into central Kansas, with sporadic occurrences of damaging wind and perhaps a few brief tornadoes from the central Gulf Coast into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 5%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 211720

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds are possible across western parts of Texas and Oklahoma. An isolated hail threat may extend into central Kansas, with sporadic occurrences of damaging wind and perhaps a few brief tornadoes from the central Gulf Coast into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys.

Synopsis

A short-wave trough over the northern and central High Plains Friday morning will become negatively tilted while translating through the upper MS Valley, ahead of a weaker, upstream disturbance moving through the central Rockies into central High Plains. Meanwhile, a series of lower-latitude disturbances will progress from the southern Plains and lower MS Valley into the TN and OH Valleys.

At the surface, an area of low pressure will track from SD into northwest MN with a trailing cold front advancing east/southeast through the central Plains, and south into the southern High Plains where it will link with a secondary low pressure. A dryline is expected to sharpen through the afternoon from the intersection of the cold front in the vicinity of the TX South Plains into the Edwards Plateau. Elsewhere, a surface low is forecast to develop from western TN into IN/OH with an associated warm front lifting north into the OH Valley.

### Central and Southern Plains

An axis of 50s to low 60s dewpoints is expected to reside ahead of the cold front and dryline, with the steepest mid-level lapse rates confined to the southern High Plains portion of the warm sector. Resultant MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg is forecast over western TX into the southern Panhandle, with instability decreasing with northeastward extent across KS and NE.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop early in the day along the front in NE with additional storms forming southwestward along the boundary during the afternoon from central KS into the southern TX Panhandle or TX South Plains, with more isolated development possible south along the dryline. Additional storms are possible in the immediate post-frontal environment in northeast NE.

The most favorable overlap of moderate instability and around 30 kt of deep-layer shear is expected to reside over parts of western TX and the Panhandle where the potential will exist for supercell storm modes with the predominant hazard being large hail. Storms may tend to grow upscale into an MCS with a wind and hail threat spreading into parts of western OK and northwest TX Friday evening.

Lesser-organized multicell structures appear possible from central KS into southeast NE. The best potential for marginally severe hail is expected over central KS where comparably (to NE) stronger instability will develop.

### Central Gulf Coast and Southeast into Ohio Valley

Some enhancement of the mid-level wind field will occur in association with the disturbances mentioned in the synopsis. Of potentially greater importance to severe-weather potential is the presence of a 25-40 kt low-level jet, which will persist through the day from the central Gulf Coast north toward the OH River amidst a moist and marginally to moderately unstable air mass with afternoon MLCAPE of 500-1500+ J/kg.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected within the northward-expanding warm sector, with the strongest instability confined to cloud-free areas where greater daytime heating can occur. Embedded strong to severe storms will be most probable in those areas, and given the presence of 30-35 kt deep-layer shear, some potential for storm organization will exist, despite the existence of poor mid-level lapse rates. A corridor of stronger low-level shear (i.e., effective SRH of 100-200 m2/s2) is forecast from eastern MS and western AL through middle TN into OH, along the low-level jet axis, where a few brief tornadoes appear possible. Otherwise, locally damaging downburst winds appear to be the primary hazard.

..Mead.. 05/21/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Saturday, May 23

Outlook Summary

Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected from the central/southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and southeastern US. A few stronger storms may be possible across the southern Plains, particularly near the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 210729

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected from the central/southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and southeastern US. A few stronger storms may be possible across the southern Plains, particularly near the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.

Synopsis

A weak impulse will rotate across the central Plains on D3/Saturday as a surface low moves northward across the Ohio Valley. A trailing cold front will extend from the surface low back into the southern Plains. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible from the central/southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and across the Southeast. A few stronger storms may be possible across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles.

TX/OK Panhandles

Weak forcing for ascent and easterly upslope flow across the Caprock will produce scattered thunderstorm activity Saturday afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest a plume of steep to low mid-level lapse rates will still reside across the OK/TX Panhandles with mid 50s to 60s dew points and moderate instability by the afternoon. Shear profiles will be fairly weak, with deep layer shear around 25 kts. A few stronger storms may produce gusty winds and hail. Overall, weak deep layer shear for organization may limit the severe threat.

..Thornton.. 05/21/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Sunday, May 24

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, May 24	predictability too low
Day 5	Monday, May 25	predictability too low
Day 6	Tuesday, May 26	predictability too low
Day 7	Wednesday, May 27	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, May 28	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210847 SPC AC 210847

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

DISCUSSION

Severe potential will remain low through the beginning of the extended period. Weak troughing will continue across the central Plains D4/Sunday before height rises begin across the central US with a high amplitude ridge settling in from the west D5/Monday. This pattern will remain in place through early next week. Slow moisture return will be ongoing across much of the Plains into the Midwest with occasional rounds of widespread rainfall and thunderstorms, but generally weak flow and subsidence will keep organized storm potential low.

By the midweek, a trough is progged to begin deepening across the Pacific Northwest. As the upper low slowly shifts eastward, stronger flow will overspread the Intermountain West into the Northern Rockies, resulting in strengthening lee troughing across the central/northern Plains D6/Tuesday and D7/Wednesday. Moisture advection will spread northward amid strengthening southerly flow across the central/northern Plains. While there are some differences in the placement of upper-level and surface features, it is possible that severe chances will return across portions of northern High Plains. For now, confidence in exact corridors remains low given model guidance differences.

..Thornton.. 05/21/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, May 25

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, May 24	predictability too low
Day 5	Monday, May 25	predictability too low
Day 6	Tuesday, May 26	predictability too low
Day 7	Wednesday, May 27	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, May 28	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210847 SPC AC 210847

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

DISCUSSION

Severe potential will remain low through the beginning of the extended period. Weak troughing will continue across the central Plains D4/Sunday before height rises begin across the central US with a high amplitude ridge settling in from the west D5/Monday. This pattern will remain in place through early next week. Slow moisture return will be ongoing across much of the Plains into the Midwest with occasional rounds of widespread rainfall and thunderstorms, but generally weak flow and subsidence will keep organized storm potential low.

By the midweek, a trough is progged to begin deepening across the Pacific Northwest. As the upper low slowly shifts eastward, stronger flow will overspread the Intermountain West into the Northern Rockies, resulting in strengthening lee troughing across the central/northern Plains D6/Tuesday and D7/Wednesday. Moisture advection will spread northward amid strengthening southerly flow across the central/northern Plains. While there are some differences in the placement of upper-level and surface features, it is possible that severe chances will return across portions of northern High Plains. For now, confidence in exact corridors remains low given model guidance differences.

..Thornton.. 05/21/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Tuesday, May 26

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, May 24	predictability too low
Day 5	Monday, May 25	predictability too low
Day 6	Tuesday, May 26	predictability too low
Day 7	Wednesday, May 27	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, May 28	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210847 SPC AC 210847

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

DISCUSSION

Severe potential will remain low through the beginning of the extended period. Weak troughing will continue across the central Plains D4/Sunday before height rises begin across the central US with a high amplitude ridge settling in from the west D5/Monday. This pattern will remain in place through early next week. Slow moisture return will be ongoing across much of the Plains into the Midwest with occasional rounds of widespread rainfall and thunderstorms, but generally weak flow and subsidence will keep organized storm potential low.

By the midweek, a trough is progged to begin deepening across the Pacific Northwest. As the upper low slowly shifts eastward, stronger flow will overspread the Intermountain West into the Northern Rockies, resulting in strengthening lee troughing across the central/northern Plains D6/Tuesday and D7/Wednesday. Moisture advection will spread northward amid strengthening southerly flow across the central/northern Plains. While there are some differences in the placement of upper-level and surface features, it is possible that severe chances will return across portions of northern High Plains. For now, confidence in exact corridors remains low given model guidance differences.

..Thornton.. 05/21/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Wednesday, May 27

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, May 24	predictability too low
Day 5	Monday, May 25	predictability too low
Day 6	Tuesday, May 26	predictability too low
Day 7	Wednesday, May 27	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, May 28	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210847 SPC AC 210847

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

DISCUSSION

Severe potential will remain low through the beginning of the extended period. Weak troughing will continue across the central Plains D4/Sunday before height rises begin across the central US with a high amplitude ridge settling in from the west D5/Monday. This pattern will remain in place through early next week. Slow moisture return will be ongoing across much of the Plains into the Midwest with occasional rounds of widespread rainfall and thunderstorms, but generally weak flow and subsidence will keep organized storm potential low.

By the midweek, a trough is progged to begin deepening across the Pacific Northwest. As the upper low slowly shifts eastward, stronger flow will overspread the Intermountain West into the Northern Rockies, resulting in strengthening lee troughing across the central/northern Plains D6/Tuesday and D7/Wednesday. Moisture advection will spread northward amid strengthening southerly flow across the central/northern Plains. While there are some differences in the placement of upper-level and surface features, it is possible that severe chances will return across portions of northern High Plains. For now, confidence in exact corridors remains low given model guidance differences.

..Thornton.. 05/21/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Thursday, May 28

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, May 24	predictability too low
Day 5	Monday, May 25	predictability too low
Day 6	Tuesday, May 26	predictability too low
Day 7	Wednesday, May 27	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, May 28	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210847 SPC AC 210847

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

DISCUSSION

Severe potential will remain low through the beginning of the extended period. Weak troughing will continue across the central Plains D4/Sunday before height rises begin across the central US with a high amplitude ridge settling in from the west D5/Monday. This pattern will remain in place through early next week. Slow moisture return will be ongoing across much of the Plains into the Midwest with occasional rounds of widespread rainfall and thunderstorms, but generally weak flow and subsidence will keep organized storm potential low.

By the midweek, a trough is progged to begin deepening across the Pacific Northwest. As the upper low slowly shifts eastward, stronger flow will overspread the Intermountain West into the Northern Rockies, resulting in strengthening lee troughing across the central/northern Plains D6/Tuesday and D7/Wednesday. Moisture advection will spread northward amid strengthening southerly flow across the central/northern Plains. While there are some differences in the placement of upper-level and surface features, it is possible that severe chances will return across portions of northern High Plains. For now, confidence in exact corridors remains low given model guidance differences.

..Thornton.. 05/21/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

National Risk Overview

Thursday, May 21: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 5%
Friday, May 22: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 5%
Saturday, May 23: ANY SEVERE: low
Sunday, May 24: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, May 25: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, May 26: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, May 27: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, May 28: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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