Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, September 2
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the eastern Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic today and tonight. Damaging wind gusts are the main threat, though some large hail and a few tornadoes may also occur. Scattered severe gusts and more sporadic occurrences of large hail appear possible from the northern Rockies into northern High Plains Wednesday afternoon into night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 30%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 020557
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Wed Sep 02 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MT AND FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE MID ATLANTIC
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the eastern Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic today and tonight. Damaging wind gusts are the main threat, though some large hail and a few tornadoes may also occur. Scattered severe gusts and more sporadic occurrences of large hail appear possible from the northern Rockies into northern High Plains Wednesday afternoon into night.
Eastern Great Lakes, Mid Atlantic
Several low-amplitude impulses embedded within a belt of moderate mid-level northwest flow of 40-60 kt will move from the lower Great Lakes into the northeast and Mid Atlantic today and tonight. A surface low over James bay will trail a slow moving cold front to the southwest across lower ON, the lakes and into MI/OH with a second backdoor front stalled across the eastern Hudson Valley and southern new England. Within the warm sector, a very moist air mass will be in place over much of the Northeast contributing to large buoyancy and broad, but uncertain potential for severe thunderstorms much of the day.
A complex convective scenario is expected across the region modulated by several rounds of thunderstorms beginning early this morning. Convection associated with a lead shortwave trough exiting southern ON will likely support scattered storms along the front across the lower Great Lakes and NY this morning. Isolated large hail and damaging winds are possible with these storms as they move southeastward and encounter a gradually destabilizing air mass across southern PA and possibly into VA/MD.
Air mass recovery is expected behind this initial condition as the primary upper trough moves from WI and lower MI into western NY/PA later in the afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates of 7-7.5 C/km atop boundary layer dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s will aide in destabilization with upwards of 2000-3000+ J/kg of MLCAPE by afternoon from lower MI into western parts of NY and PA. Storm development is expected ahead of the approaching trough and cold front as well as on any residual outflow from the morning storms. A mix of supercells and line segments is expected with all hazards possible.
A greater tornado risk may evolve in the evening across southern NY and central PA, contingent upon air mass recovery in the wake of the prior storms and presence of a more supercellular mode. NAM/RAP forecast soundings do show some elongation of low-level hodographs, and any modifying old pool or outflow boundary could further enhance low-level shear profiles favorable for tornadoes. Higher tornado probabilities were considered, but uncertainty on the aforementioned factors remains large.
MT/ND
A compact but strong shortwave trough is forecast to move rapidly northeastward from the Great Basin to the northern Rockies today and tonight. 35-50 kt mid-level flow will accompany this feature and overspread a modestly moist, but warm and unstable air mass across much of central and eastern MT. Ascent from the approaching shortwave trough will aid in the development of thunderstorms across the higher terrain of western MT through the afternoon. Despite modest buoyancy, steep lapse rate profiles and a deep, well-mixed boundary layer, will enhance severe-wind-gust potential with these storms. 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear will promote organization and clustering with some guidance showing a fast-moving line developing and moving northeastward through the later afternoon/early evening. Scattered severe gusts are likely, with peak intensity of 65-80 mph possible.
Additional storms are possible across portions of eastern MT into the evening within a zone of warm advection along a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. Isolated large hail appears to be the primary hazard with those storms.
WY
Some model guidance shows high-based showers and thunderstorms developing near the southern fringes of the northern Rockies trough across WY this afternoon. Modest low-level moisture/buoyancy may limit convective intensity, but sporadic strong outflow gusts are possible given a very deeply mixed boundary layer.
Mid MO Valley into IA and southern MN
An intensifying low-level jet will likely support an increase in thunderstorms late this evening/overnight across the MO valley and parts of the Midwest. Moderate to strong elevated instability and sufficient vertical shear may exist for a few stronger storms capable of marginal severe hail. However, overall forcing for ascent is modest and with building mid-level heights, confidence in a broader organized severe threat is low.
..Lyons/Wendt.. 09/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Thursday, September 3
Outlook Summary
Severe storms, accompanied by severe wind and hail (including a couple 2 inch diameter stones and 75+ mph gusts), are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest. At least scattered severe-wind-producing storms are also possible from the eastern Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic coastline.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 020552
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Wed Sep 02 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
### SUMMARY
Severe storms, accompanied by severe wind and hail (including a couple 2 inch diameter stones and 75+ mph gusts), are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest. At least scattered severe-wind-producing storms are also possible from the eastern Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic coastline.
Synopsis
An upper ridge will remain centered over the MS Valley as upper troughs persist across the Northeast and Interior West tomorrow (Thursday). Multiple impulses, accompanied by cooler temperatures and stronger flow aloft, will pivot around the eastern periphery of the upper ridge and overspread a moist boundary layer over the Upper Midwest and OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic regions. Ample buoyancy and vertical wind shear over both areas will support at least scattered thunderstorms, several of which may be severe.
Portions of the Upper MS Valley
Guidance consensus depicts a subtle impulse cresting the upper ridge over the northern Plains and impinging on the Upper MS Valley by afternoon peak heating, serving as the most likely impetus for convective initiation. Storms will most likely develop somewhere along the SD/MN border to central MN, preceded by a surface warm front draped from southern MN, to southern WI and eastern IA. Surface dewpoints will exceed 70 F along this front, with 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreading this moisture, yielding 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE. Coincident with this strong buoyancy will be 50 kts of effective bulk shear, with forecast soundings showing elongated hodographs.
The current thinking is that initial storms will be supercellular, accompanied by mainly a severe wind and hail threat (a few stones of which may exceed 2 inches in diameter). However, if storms merge, a cold-pool-driven MCS may develop, perhaps even taking on bowing tendencies should it traverse the surface boundary. In this scenario, a focused severe wind swath could occur, and a couple of gusts may exceed 75 mph. Given such subtle forcing for ascent expected, and the dependency on finer mesoscale details for a higher-end severe threat, only Category 2/Slight Risk probabilities were introduced for now. If consistency in guidance consensus continues to show bow echo evolution, higher severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks.
Parts of the OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic Coastline
Another in a series of mid-level impulses will traverse the Mid-Atlantic region during the day. A diffuse differential heating zone should be in place somewhere near the PA/MD border, which will likely be the location of convective initiation by late morning or early afternoon. There is also the possibility that upstream convective complexes, remnant from Day 1 storms along the larger-scale warm front, may approach from the OH Valley and track toward the Eastern Seaboard though the day. Regardless of the convective scenario, storms should overspread 70+ F surface dewpoints (which will support over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE). Given modest northwesterly flow aloft, any storms that become sustained will be accompanied by a severe gust threat, though an instance of hail cannot be ruled out. Higher severe probabilities are not entirely out of the question once mesoscale details on convective placement, timing, and evolution become clearer.
..Squitieri.. 09/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Friday, September 4
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, September 4 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Saturday, September 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, September 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, September 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, September 8 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010828 SPC AC 010828
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CDT Tue Sep 01 2026
Valid 041200Z - 091200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper ridge will meander from the Mid-MS and TN Valleys toward the Plains through the extended period, with upper troughs poised to amplify along the East Coast and over the Interior West. Multiple mid-level impulses will traverse this flow pattern, translating from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Plains and Upper MS Valley, then the Mid-Atlantic. It is in this elongated, roughly zonal corridor that thunderstorm potential will be highest.
The severe threat with the relatively highest degree of predictability will be across the Mid-Atlantic Days 4-5 (Friday and Saturday). On Friday, a diffuse differential heating boundary, generated by thunderstorm clusters from previous days, will likely become established somewhere across the southern Mid-Atlantic. As an upper trough amplifies over this differential heating boundary, thunderstorms should develop amid rich low-level moisture beneath stronger flow aloft. The more organized storms may produce damaging wind gusts (hence the maintenance of 15 percent severe probabilities). Calibrated ML/AI guidance suggests that the severe threat may persist into Saturday across the Carolina Piedmont. However, deterministic guidance shows the upper trough advancing further into the Atlantic this weekend, along with upper support. As such, storm coverage and initiation mechanisms for Saturday remain too unclear this far in advance for the introduction of severe probabilities at this time.
Amplification of the Interior West upper trough will support surface lee troughing and accompanying low-level moisture advection across the Plains states. While at least isolated severe thunderstorms may occur any where from the northern/central High Plains toward the Upper MS Valley, predictability of any severe potential is too low this far out.
..Squitieri.. 09/01/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, September 5
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, September 4 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Saturday, September 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, September 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, September 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, September 8 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010828 SPC AC 010828
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CDT Tue Sep 01 2026
Valid 041200Z - 091200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper ridge will meander from the Mid-MS and TN Valleys toward the Plains through the extended period, with upper troughs poised to amplify along the East Coast and over the Interior West. Multiple mid-level impulses will traverse this flow pattern, translating from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Plains and Upper MS Valley, then the Mid-Atlantic. It is in this elongated, roughly zonal corridor that thunderstorm potential will be highest.
The severe threat with the relatively highest degree of predictability will be across the Mid-Atlantic Days 4-5 (Friday and Saturday). On Friday, a diffuse differential heating boundary, generated by thunderstorm clusters from previous days, will likely become established somewhere across the southern Mid-Atlantic. As an upper trough amplifies over this differential heating boundary, thunderstorms should develop amid rich low-level moisture beneath stronger flow aloft. The more organized storms may produce damaging wind gusts (hence the maintenance of 15 percent severe probabilities). Calibrated ML/AI guidance suggests that the severe threat may persist into Saturday across the Carolina Piedmont. However, deterministic guidance shows the upper trough advancing further into the Atlantic this weekend, along with upper support. As such, storm coverage and initiation mechanisms for Saturday remain too unclear this far in advance for the introduction of severe probabilities at this time.
Amplification of the Interior West upper trough will support surface lee troughing and accompanying low-level moisture advection across the Plains states. While at least isolated severe thunderstorms may occur any where from the northern/central High Plains toward the Upper MS Valley, predictability of any severe potential is too low this far out.
..Squitieri.. 09/01/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, September 6
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, September 4 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Saturday, September 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, September 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, September 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, September 8 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010828 SPC AC 010828
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CDT Tue Sep 01 2026
Valid 041200Z - 091200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper ridge will meander from the Mid-MS and TN Valleys toward the Plains through the extended period, with upper troughs poised to amplify along the East Coast and over the Interior West. Multiple mid-level impulses will traverse this flow pattern, translating from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Plains and Upper MS Valley, then the Mid-Atlantic. It is in this elongated, roughly zonal corridor that thunderstorm potential will be highest.
The severe threat with the relatively highest degree of predictability will be across the Mid-Atlantic Days 4-5 (Friday and Saturday). On Friday, a diffuse differential heating boundary, generated by thunderstorm clusters from previous days, will likely become established somewhere across the southern Mid-Atlantic. As an upper trough amplifies over this differential heating boundary, thunderstorms should develop amid rich low-level moisture beneath stronger flow aloft. The more organized storms may produce damaging wind gusts (hence the maintenance of 15 percent severe probabilities). Calibrated ML/AI guidance suggests that the severe threat may persist into Saturday across the Carolina Piedmont. However, deterministic guidance shows the upper trough advancing further into the Atlantic this weekend, along with upper support. As such, storm coverage and initiation mechanisms for Saturday remain too unclear this far in advance for the introduction of severe probabilities at this time.
Amplification of the Interior West upper trough will support surface lee troughing and accompanying low-level moisture advection across the Plains states. While at least isolated severe thunderstorms may occur any where from the northern/central High Plains toward the Upper MS Valley, predictability of any severe potential is too low this far out.
..Squitieri.. 09/01/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, September 7
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, September 4 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Saturday, September 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, September 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, September 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, September 8 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010828 SPC AC 010828
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CDT Tue Sep 01 2026
Valid 041200Z - 091200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper ridge will meander from the Mid-MS and TN Valleys toward the Plains through the extended period, with upper troughs poised to amplify along the East Coast and over the Interior West. Multiple mid-level impulses will traverse this flow pattern, translating from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Plains and Upper MS Valley, then the Mid-Atlantic. It is in this elongated, roughly zonal corridor that thunderstorm potential will be highest.
The severe threat with the relatively highest degree of predictability will be across the Mid-Atlantic Days 4-5 (Friday and Saturday). On Friday, a diffuse differential heating boundary, generated by thunderstorm clusters from previous days, will likely become established somewhere across the southern Mid-Atlantic. As an upper trough amplifies over this differential heating boundary, thunderstorms should develop amid rich low-level moisture beneath stronger flow aloft. The more organized storms may produce damaging wind gusts (hence the maintenance of 15 percent severe probabilities). Calibrated ML/AI guidance suggests that the severe threat may persist into Saturday across the Carolina Piedmont. However, deterministic guidance shows the upper trough advancing further into the Atlantic this weekend, along with upper support. As such, storm coverage and initiation mechanisms for Saturday remain too unclear this far in advance for the introduction of severe probabilities at this time.
Amplification of the Interior West upper trough will support surface lee troughing and accompanying low-level moisture advection across the Plains states. While at least isolated severe thunderstorms may occur any where from the northern/central High Plains toward the Upper MS Valley, predictability of any severe potential is too low this far out.
..Squitieri.. 09/01/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, September 8
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, September 4 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Saturday, September 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, September 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, September 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, September 8 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010828 SPC AC 010828
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CDT Tue Sep 01 2026
Valid 041200Z - 091200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper ridge will meander from the Mid-MS and TN Valleys toward the Plains through the extended period, with upper troughs poised to amplify along the East Coast and over the Interior West. Multiple mid-level impulses will traverse this flow pattern, translating from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Plains and Upper MS Valley, then the Mid-Atlantic. It is in this elongated, roughly zonal corridor that thunderstorm potential will be highest.
The severe threat with the relatively highest degree of predictability will be across the Mid-Atlantic Days 4-5 (Friday and Saturday). On Friday, a diffuse differential heating boundary, generated by thunderstorm clusters from previous days, will likely become established somewhere across the southern Mid-Atlantic. As an upper trough amplifies over this differential heating boundary, thunderstorms should develop amid rich low-level moisture beneath stronger flow aloft. The more organized storms may produce damaging wind gusts (hence the maintenance of 15 percent severe probabilities). Calibrated ML/AI guidance suggests that the severe threat may persist into Saturday across the Carolina Piedmont. However, deterministic guidance shows the upper trough advancing further into the Atlantic this weekend, along with upper support. As such, storm coverage and initiation mechanisms for Saturday remain too unclear this far in advance for the introduction of severe probabilities at this time.
Amplification of the Interior West upper trough will support surface lee troughing and accompanying low-level moisture advection across the Plains states. While at least isolated severe thunderstorms may occur any where from the northern/central High Plains toward the Upper MS Valley, predictability of any severe potential is too low this far out.
..Squitieri.. 09/01/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, September 2
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 30%
- Thursday, September 3
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Friday, September 4
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Saturday, September 5
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, September 6
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, September 7
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, September 8
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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