Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, October 23
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms with hail, damaging gusts and a tornado or two are possible across portions of New Mexico, southern Colorado, and far west Texas today into tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 231245
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026
Valid 231300Z - 241200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF NEW MEXICO.
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms with hail, damaging gusts and a tornado or two are possible across portions of New Mexico, southern Colorado, and far west Texas today into tonight.
NM/CO/Far West TX
A large upper trough remains over the western states today, with strong southwesterly mid-level winds extending across the southern Rockies. A shortwave trough now moving across northern NM/southern CO will depart the area, leaving a few hours of subsidence before a combination of daytime heating and subtle forcing within the upper jet aid in afternoon thunderstorm development over NM. Favorable deep-layer shear profiles and MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg will support a risk of supercell structures through the afternoon and evening from southern NM/far west TX into southeast CO. Relatively steep mid level lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft suggest that large hail is the main concern from these storms, but locally damaging winds could also occur where daytime heating is maximized. A tornado or two could occur in terrain-favored areas.
..Hart/Dean.. 10/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Saturday, October 24
Outlook Summary
Severe wind/hail and a tornado are possible across portions of central New Mexico into Far West Texas on Saturday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 230533
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WESTERN TEXAS
### SUMMARY
Severe wind/hail and a tornado are possible across portions of central New Mexico into Far West Texas on Saturday.
NM into southwest TX vicinity
Strong upper ridging across the MS Valley will prevent much eastward-advancement of the upper cyclone over AZ. As a result, a belt of enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow will persist from eastern AZ into NM. At the surface, lower pressure will be oriented across southern AZ and southwest NM while surface high pressure builds across the northern/central Plains in the wake of a surface cold front. As a result of the increased surface pressure gradient across the southern Rockies, southeasterly low-level winds will transport/maintain modest boundary layer moisture across central/eastern NM and western TX. Modest destabilization, and large scale ascent overspreading the region ahead of the upper cyclone, will support thunderstorm development by early to mid-afternoon.
Vertically veering wind profiles, increasing in speed with height, will result in supercell wind profiles and elongated hodographs. Midlevel lapse rates will remain modest (to around 7 C/km), with cool 500 mb temperatures around -10 to -13 C noted in regional forecast soundings. This will result in mainly a large hail risk. However, given stronger midlevel flow and somewhat fast storm motion (40 kt or so), some risk for strong gusts also will be possible where stronger heating occurs. While boundary layer moisture will remain modest (generally 50s F dewpoints max), some risk for a tornado is possible given favorable low-level shear. This risk will likely be focused further south across south-central NM into Far West TX where instability and surface heating may be maximized.
..Leitman.. 10/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Sunday, October 25
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms, posing mainly a risk for hail, are possible on Sunday across portions of southern New Mexico and Far West Texas.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 230651
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WESTERN TEXAS
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms, posing mainly a risk for hail, are possible on Sunday across portions of southern New Mexico and Far West Texas.
Synopsis
An upper cyclone/trough over UT/AZ will lift northeast across the southern/central Rockies on Sunday into early Monday. A belt of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will persist across the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Modest southeasterly low-level flow will maintain 50s F surface dewpoints across western TX into southern/eastern NM to the south of a stalled surface boundary oriented from northeast NM into western KS.
Convection is likely to be ongoing Sunday morning, lending to some uncertainty in northward extent of low severe probabilities. Further south across southern/southeast NM into Far West Texas, forecast guidance suggests muted daytime heating could occur across the modestly moist airmass, resulting in weak destabilization. Supercell wind profiles will again be present given vertically veering winds and increasing southwesterly flow with height. Cool midlevel temperatures and elongated hodographs suggest hail will be the main risk with stronger convection.
..Leitman.. 10/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Monday, October 26
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, October 30 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230748 SPC AC 230748
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 311200Z
DISCUSSION
A series of upper troughs will move across portions of the northern and central U.S. during the Day 4-8 period. Around the middle of the work (Day 6/Wed), a larger-scale upper trough is forecast to develop across the Plains and Midwest, and eventually the eastern U.S. by the weekend. As this occurs, a cold front will develop southeast across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies. While this will likely support some thunderstorm and shower activity, boundary layer moisture will remain limited, and only weak instability is forecast and will largely remain displaced from stronger deep-layer flow. Overall, severe potential appears low through Day 8/Fri.
..Leitman.. 10/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, October 27
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, October 30 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230748 SPC AC 230748
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 311200Z
DISCUSSION
A series of upper troughs will move across portions of the northern and central U.S. during the Day 4-8 period. Around the middle of the work (Day 6/Wed), a larger-scale upper trough is forecast to develop across the Plains and Midwest, and eventually the eastern U.S. by the weekend. As this occurs, a cold front will develop southeast across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies. While this will likely support some thunderstorm and shower activity, boundary layer moisture will remain limited, and only weak instability is forecast and will largely remain displaced from stronger deep-layer flow. Overall, severe potential appears low through Day 8/Fri.
..Leitman.. 10/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, October 28
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, October 30 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230748 SPC AC 230748
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 311200Z
DISCUSSION
A series of upper troughs will move across portions of the northern and central U.S. during the Day 4-8 period. Around the middle of the work (Day 6/Wed), a larger-scale upper trough is forecast to develop across the Plains and Midwest, and eventually the eastern U.S. by the weekend. As this occurs, a cold front will develop southeast across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies. While this will likely support some thunderstorm and shower activity, boundary layer moisture will remain limited, and only weak instability is forecast and will largely remain displaced from stronger deep-layer flow. Overall, severe potential appears low through Day 8/Fri.
..Leitman.. 10/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, October 29
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, October 30 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230748 SPC AC 230748
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 311200Z
DISCUSSION
A series of upper troughs will move across portions of the northern and central U.S. during the Day 4-8 period. Around the middle of the work (Day 6/Wed), a larger-scale upper trough is forecast to develop across the Plains and Midwest, and eventually the eastern U.S. by the weekend. As this occurs, a cold front will develop southeast across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies. While this will likely support some thunderstorm and shower activity, boundary layer moisture will remain limited, and only weak instability is forecast and will largely remain displaced from stronger deep-layer flow. Overall, severe potential appears low through Day 8/Fri.
..Leitman.. 10/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, October 30
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, October 30 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230748 SPC AC 230748
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 311200Z
DISCUSSION
A series of upper troughs will move across portions of the northern and central U.S. during the Day 4-8 period. Around the middle of the work (Day 6/Wed), a larger-scale upper trough is forecast to develop across the Plains and Midwest, and eventually the eastern U.S. by the weekend. As this occurs, a cold front will develop southeast across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies. While this will likely support some thunderstorm and shower activity, boundary layer moisture will remain limited, and only weak instability is forecast and will largely remain displaced from stronger deep-layer flow. Overall, severe potential appears low through Day 8/Fri.
..Leitman.. 10/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, October 23
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 5%
- Saturday, October 24
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 5%
- Sunday, October 25
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Monday, October 26
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, October 27
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, October 28
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, October 29
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, October 30
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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