Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, November 24
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible through the afternoon into the overnight hours, from east Texas into central/southern Mississippi.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 241951
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025
Valid 242000Z - 251200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible through the afternoon into the overnight hours, from east Texas into central/southern Mississippi.
20Z Update
Only minor changes to general thunder and severe probabilities have been made to the Day 1 Convective Outlook to reflect the latest observations and guidance consensus. Storms have increased in coverage and intensity along the cold front, and along a primary low-level moisture confluence zone within the free warm sector. Storms seem to be struggling in intensity at the moment, possibly due to a sub-optimal vertical wind shear profile in place (please see MCD 2223 for more details on short-term convective trends). However, convection should persist to some degree along and ahead of the cold front through the afternoon into the overnight hours as upper support from an approaching mid-level trough overspreads the Sabine/MS River Valleys. With adequate low-level moisture advection continuing ahead of the cold front, supercells and line segments capable of damaging gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will remain possible through tonight, from eastern TX into central MS.
..Squitieri.. 11/24/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025/
East TX this afternoon to MS overnight
A midlevel shortwave trough over KS/OK/TX this morning will progress a bit north-of-east to the lower OH and TN Valleys by Tuesday morning. Only weak surface cyclogenesis is expected in advance of the de-amplifying midlevel trough, but there will be sufficient mass response to support a modestly strong low-level jet (roughly 40 kt) from northeast TX this afternoon into the Ark-La-Miss by early Tuesday. This low-level jet will correspond to the north edge of the richer low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints of 66-70 F), and MLCAPE generally 1000-2000 J/kg near and south of the warm front.
Convective mode is likely to remain rather messy through tonight, though cellular elements are expected given modest forcing for ascent along the deeper baroclinic zone from northeast TX eastward near the LA/AR border. Warm sector supercell development is also possible by early-mid afternoon from southeast into east TX (see MD 2222 for additional details), along a confluence zone (now from VCT-CLL) and aided by cloud breaks where surface temperatures warm into the 75-80 F range. The combination of moderate buoyancy and sufficiently long/curved hodographs will support the threat for a few supercells capable of producing a few tornadoes, occasional wind damaging and isolated large hail. The threat will spread this afternoon across east TX and then spread eastward overnight toward MS.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Tuesday, November 25
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe storms are likely across parts of the Southeast/Deep South, mainly from Tuesday morning into early evening. A couple tornadoes are possible in parts of eastern Mississippi and Alabama.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 241721
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF AL AND EASTERN MS
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe storms are likely across parts of the Southeast/Deep South, mainly from Tuesday morning into early evening. A couple tornadoes are possible in parts of eastern Mississippi and Alabama.
Synopsis
A leading shortwave impulse over the Lower OH and TN Valleys will dampen as it moves quickly northeast, downstream of an amplifying shortwave trough across the Upper Midwest. Surface cyclogenesis will occur over the Upper MS Valley into the Great Lakes, aiding in sharpening/acceleration of a trailing cold front on Tuesday night in the Southeast.
Deep South
A high shear-low CAPE environment should be present across southern/central MS into western AL, where remnants of early-morning supercells may yield a lingering tornado threat beyond 12Z. Convection should generally weaken into midday, in the wake of the leading shortwave impulse departing the TN Valley. Diurnal destabilization should occur following early-day convection, ahead of the initially slow-moving cold front. With upper 60s surface dew points nosing north from the central Gulf Coast, even modest diabatic heating will sustain moderate buoyancy.
Guidance is consistent with suggesting scattered convection along/ahead of the outflow-modulated cold front during the afternoon, despite otherwise nebulous large-scale ascent. Deep-layer wind fields are expected to be subsiding from strong values early, but likely remaining adequate for semi-discrete supercell structures. Modest mid-level lapse rates and expected mode may curtail greater than isolated severe hail/damaging wind threats. Tornado potential will be dependent on timing of afternoon convective development and the degree of low-level hodograph curvature reduction. But there is sufficient signal to warrant a corridor of level 2-SLGT for the risk of a couple tornadoes from lingering storms in the mid-morning and afternoon to early evening redevelopment. Overall severe threat should become marginal by late evening/overnight, but may persist on a very isolated basis east/southward in GA to the FL Panhandle.
..Grams.. 11/24/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Wednesday, November 26
Outlook Summary
Severe storms are not forecast on Wednesday or Wednesday night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 241906
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe storms are not forecast on Wednesday or Wednesday night.
Synopsis
An amplified shortwave trough will further deepen as it swings across the Great Lakes into the Saint Lawrence Valley. Associated deep surface cyclone will track across the central Great Lakes to the Ottawa Valley. Downstream frontal occlusion should arc to a weaker low moving across New England, with the leading cold front trailing southward and exiting much of the Atlantic Seaboard by Wednesday night.
East
Surface-based thunderstorm coverage along/ahead of the aforementioned front is expected to remain sparse on Wednesday, limiting unconditional severe probabilities. Instability should be weak north of south GA/north FL, where strong deep-layer shear will be prevalent ahead of the aforementioned front.
Rather low-topped convection may precede the most pronounced mid-level DCVA in the western/upstate NY vicinity on Wednesday afternoon. While it may be insufficient to produce lightning amid flimsy buoyancy, it could be accompanied by strong gusts along a secondary surface frontal surge with a strengthening pressure gradient in its wake.
..Grams.. 11/24/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Thursday, November 27
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, November 27 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, November 28 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, November 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, November 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, December 1 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240905 SPC AC 240905
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025
Valid 271200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
Thunderstorm activity should be minimal Thursday and Friday as high pressure ushers in a cool, dry airmass across much of the eastern CONUS. By late Friday night, return flow across Texas may lead to some weak destabilization and thunderstorm chances.
Severe thunderstorms are possible Day6/Saturday to Day8/Monday across the southern Plains as the warm sector expands across Texas and mid-level trough amplifies across the western CONUS. Evolution of this mid-level trough remains uncertain. The GFS, AIGFS, and EC-AIFS all suggest a slower evolution of the trough with a deeper closed low across the Southwest. However, the operational ECMWF is more progressive and would actually suggest an end to severe weather potential by Monday with offshore flow across the Gulf Coast once again. At this time, the consensus pattern for a slower, more amplified trough seems most likely, especially given that previous 12Z and 00Z ECMWF model runs preferred this solution as well.
Severe thunderstorms will be possible with this preferred pattern, but uncertainty in the evolution of the mid-level trough and timing preclude severe weather probabilities at this time.
..Bentley.. 11/24/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, November 28
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, November 27 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, November 28 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, November 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, November 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, December 1 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240905 SPC AC 240905
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025
Valid 271200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
Thunderstorm activity should be minimal Thursday and Friday as high pressure ushers in a cool, dry airmass across much of the eastern CONUS. By late Friday night, return flow across Texas may lead to some weak destabilization and thunderstorm chances.
Severe thunderstorms are possible Day6/Saturday to Day8/Monday across the southern Plains as the warm sector expands across Texas and mid-level trough amplifies across the western CONUS. Evolution of this mid-level trough remains uncertain. The GFS, AIGFS, and EC-AIFS all suggest a slower evolution of the trough with a deeper closed low across the Southwest. However, the operational ECMWF is more progressive and would actually suggest an end to severe weather potential by Monday with offshore flow across the Gulf Coast once again. At this time, the consensus pattern for a slower, more amplified trough seems most likely, especially given that previous 12Z and 00Z ECMWF model runs preferred this solution as well.
Severe thunderstorms will be possible with this preferred pattern, but uncertainty in the evolution of the mid-level trough and timing preclude severe weather probabilities at this time.
..Bentley.. 11/24/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, November 29
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, November 27 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, November 28 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, November 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, November 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, December 1 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240905 SPC AC 240905
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025
Valid 271200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
Thunderstorm activity should be minimal Thursday and Friday as high pressure ushers in a cool, dry airmass across much of the eastern CONUS. By late Friday night, return flow across Texas may lead to some weak destabilization and thunderstorm chances.
Severe thunderstorms are possible Day6/Saturday to Day8/Monday across the southern Plains as the warm sector expands across Texas and mid-level trough amplifies across the western CONUS. Evolution of this mid-level trough remains uncertain. The GFS, AIGFS, and EC-AIFS all suggest a slower evolution of the trough with a deeper closed low across the Southwest. However, the operational ECMWF is more progressive and would actually suggest an end to severe weather potential by Monday with offshore flow across the Gulf Coast once again. At this time, the consensus pattern for a slower, more amplified trough seems most likely, especially given that previous 12Z and 00Z ECMWF model runs preferred this solution as well.
Severe thunderstorms will be possible with this preferred pattern, but uncertainty in the evolution of the mid-level trough and timing preclude severe weather probabilities at this time.
..Bentley.. 11/24/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, November 30
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, November 27 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, November 28 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, November 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, November 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, December 1 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240905 SPC AC 240905
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025
Valid 271200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
Thunderstorm activity should be minimal Thursday and Friday as high pressure ushers in a cool, dry airmass across much of the eastern CONUS. By late Friday night, return flow across Texas may lead to some weak destabilization and thunderstorm chances.
Severe thunderstorms are possible Day6/Saturday to Day8/Monday across the southern Plains as the warm sector expands across Texas and mid-level trough amplifies across the western CONUS. Evolution of this mid-level trough remains uncertain. The GFS, AIGFS, and EC-AIFS all suggest a slower evolution of the trough with a deeper closed low across the Southwest. However, the operational ECMWF is more progressive and would actually suggest an end to severe weather potential by Monday with offshore flow across the Gulf Coast once again. At this time, the consensus pattern for a slower, more amplified trough seems most likely, especially given that previous 12Z and 00Z ECMWF model runs preferred this solution as well.
Severe thunderstorms will be possible with this preferred pattern, but uncertainty in the evolution of the mid-level trough and timing preclude severe weather probabilities at this time.
..Bentley.. 11/24/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, December 1
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, November 27 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, November 28 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, November 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, November 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, December 1 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240905 SPC AC 240905
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025
Valid 271200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
Thunderstorm activity should be minimal Thursday and Friday as high pressure ushers in a cool, dry airmass across much of the eastern CONUS. By late Friday night, return flow across Texas may lead to some weak destabilization and thunderstorm chances.
Severe thunderstorms are possible Day6/Saturday to Day8/Monday across the southern Plains as the warm sector expands across Texas and mid-level trough amplifies across the western CONUS. Evolution of this mid-level trough remains uncertain. The GFS, AIGFS, and EC-AIFS all suggest a slower evolution of the trough with a deeper closed low across the Southwest. However, the operational ECMWF is more progressive and would actually suggest an end to severe weather potential by Monday with offshore flow across the Gulf Coast once again. At this time, the consensus pattern for a slower, more amplified trough seems most likely, especially given that previous 12Z and 00Z ECMWF model runs preferred this solution as well.
Severe thunderstorms will be possible with this preferred pattern, but uncertainty in the evolution of the mid-level trough and timing preclude severe weather probabilities at this time.
..Bentley.. 11/24/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, November 24
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Tuesday, November 25
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Wednesday, November 26
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Thursday, November 27
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, November 28
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, November 29
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, November 30
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, December 1
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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