Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, September 13
Outlook Summary
Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the upper Ohio Valley into the Northeast this afternoon and evening. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may also occur across parts of the central and northern High Plains.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 131957
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
Valid 132000Z - 141200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK
### SUMMARY
Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the upper Ohio Valley into the Northeast this afternoon and evening. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may also occur across parts of the central and northern High Plains.
20Z Update
Minor changes where made to the ongoing forecast based on recent observations and model guidance. The overall forecast reasoning remains valid, however. See the previous discussion for additional details.
..Wendt.. 09/13/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026/
Northeast and upper/middle Ohio Valley
Have upgraded portions of the region to a categorical Slight Risk with expectations of a semi-focused regional corridor of wind damage later this afternoon through early evening. Within large-scale upper troughing over eastern Canada, a strong west-southwesterly mid-level jet will overspread the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley and Northeast later today into tonight. A surface cold front will likewise track eastward across these regions through tonight. A seasonably moist low-level airmass will be in place ahead of the cold front, but poor lapse rates aloft (around 6-6.5 C/km) and cloud cover should limit the degree of destabilization that can occur this afternoon, although cloud cover has tended to thin/abate since early this morning across the upper Ohio Valley. While the main influence of the upstream upper-level trough will not arrive until this evening, strengthening mid-level flow through the day will support 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear and the potential for organized bands of convection.
At least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of the front by mid afternoon (around 19-22Z) from parts of Ohio into western New York, and then spread quickly eastward across the upper Ohio Valley into the Northeast. The deep-layer shear will be strong enough for some supercells initially, with perhaps a marginal/isolated hail threat even with the poor lapse rates present aloft. But, clusters/bowing segments with an isolated damaging wind threat should quickly develop given the linear forcing of the front. This convection is forecast to weaken with eastward extent this evening with the onset of nocturnal cooling, and as it encounters a less unstable airmass.
Wyoming and central/northern High Plains to Missouri Valley
A closed mid/upper-level low over the Pacific Northwest this morning will move eastward to the northern Rockies/High Plains through the period. Diurnal destabilization will generally be limited ahead of this low, though a narrow zone of weak instability may develop by late afternoon across southern Wyoming, and across northeast Colorado into the Nebraska Panhandle in a modest low-level upslope flow regime. Isolated thunderstorm development is expected with sufficient wind profiles for isolated severe hail/wind potential.
Elevated thunderstorms should again increase in coverage across western/central South Dakota towards the mid Missouri Valley late tonight into early Monday morning. Moderate MUCAPE and sufficient cloud-layer shear could support an isolated hail threat with the initial development across western/southern South Dakota, though mergers/interactions and weakening buoyancy will likely limit the longevity and eastward extent of this threat into the mid Missouri Valley.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Monday, September 14
Outlook Summary
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may impact parts of eastern Nebraska into western Iowa late Monday afternoon into early evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 131729
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA
### SUMMARY
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may impact parts of eastern Nebraska into western Iowa late Monday afternoon into early evening.
Discussion
A mid-level trough will move across the northern Plains on Monday with a strengthening 60-70 knot mid-level jet streak. The surface pattern will feature a surface low across the Canadian Prairies and a secondary weaker surface low across the central Plains. A moist airmass will advect northward to the east of the surface trough with mid to upper 60s dewpoints advecting into Nebraska and Iowa.
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across eastern South Dakota and Minnesota into Iowa amid moderate isentropic ascent. In the wake of this morning activity, northward recovery will occur across northeast Kansas into southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Within this zone, a narrow period of favorable conditions is forecast to develop ahead of front from southeast Nebraska northward. Most guidance shows storms developing within an environment featuring 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE and 30 to 35 knots of effective shear during the afternoon. This would support a supercell storm mode. If this discrete storm mode can be maintained, a EF2+ tornado threat will exist given the nearly purely streamwise vorticity in the lowest 2km from RAP forecast soundings in the region. Limiting factors to this scenario are multiple storms developing along the front and quickly growing upscale and a lack of strong venting flow aloft which may result in disruptive downbursts before a more organized, strong low-level mesocyclone can develop.
Farther southwest, moderate instability and strong heating/lapse rates may support isolated damaging wind gusts. Some guidance shows ~30 knots of effective shear which could support some marginally rotating storms. If this occurs, some isolated large hail may be possible. The 5% hail probability has been extended southwestward to account for this threat.
Elevated thunderstorms will persist into the overnight period across southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois within a strong low-level jet and isentropic ascent. However, only modest elevated instability and limited cloud-bearing shear should preclude much severe threat farther east into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois.
..Bentley.. 09/13/2026
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Tuesday, September 15
Outlook Summary
Scattered strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor south to southwest of the Great Lakes through the lower Missouri Valley Tuesday afternoon and evening, accompanied by at least some risk for locally damaging wind gusts.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 131925
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES
### SUMMARY
Scattered strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor south to southwest of the Great Lakes through the lower Missouri Valley Tuesday afternoon and evening, accompanied by at least some risk for locally damaging wind gusts.
Discussion
A mid-level trough will move into Ontario on Tuesday with the mid-level ridge building in its wake across the Midwest and into the Upper Midwest. Beneath this ridge, a cold front will move slowly southeastward from southern Iowa and northern Kansas at the beginning of the period, to northern Oklahoma to central Missouri by the end of the period. Dewpoints will increase into the low to mid 70s south of the front with weak to moderate instability anticipated. Forcing will be somewhat nebulous given the rising heights aloft and weak convergence along the slow-moving, decaying front.
Nonetheless, moderate to potentially strong instability and an uncapped airmass should support some thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts. Some lingering 30 to 40 knot mid-level flow is forecast to remain across portions of the warm sector Friday afternoon (particularly across northern Illinois/Indiana) which may aid in storm organization, but warm air aloft and a lack of clear supercell mode should limit the overall hail threat.
..Bentley.. 09/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Wednesday, September 16
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 16 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, September 17 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, September 18 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, September 19 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, September 20 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130820 SPC AC 130820
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range model output indicates that the initially prominent Southeastern mid-level ridge will slowly retrograde west-southwestward and become increasingly suppressed across the lower latitudes late this coming work week into next weekend. However, it appears that the evolving westerlies across the U.S. will remain modest to weak, with little potential for appreciable surface cyclogenesis. While guidance suggests some continuing potential for widely scattered strong thunderstorm development near a lingering frontal zone across the Ohio into lower Missouri Valley on Wednesday, it appears that this will diminish thereafter, with generally negligible risk for organized severe thunderstorm potential into and through next weekend.
..Kerr.. 09/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, September 17
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 16 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, September 17 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, September 18 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, September 19 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, September 20 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130820 SPC AC 130820
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range model output indicates that the initially prominent Southeastern mid-level ridge will slowly retrograde west-southwestward and become increasingly suppressed across the lower latitudes late this coming work week into next weekend. However, it appears that the evolving westerlies across the U.S. will remain modest to weak, with little potential for appreciable surface cyclogenesis. While guidance suggests some continuing potential for widely scattered strong thunderstorm development near a lingering frontal zone across the Ohio into lower Missouri Valley on Wednesday, it appears that this will diminish thereafter, with generally negligible risk for organized severe thunderstorm potential into and through next weekend.
..Kerr.. 09/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, September 18
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 16 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, September 17 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, September 18 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, September 19 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, September 20 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130820 SPC AC 130820
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range model output indicates that the initially prominent Southeastern mid-level ridge will slowly retrograde west-southwestward and become increasingly suppressed across the lower latitudes late this coming work week into next weekend. However, it appears that the evolving westerlies across the U.S. will remain modest to weak, with little potential for appreciable surface cyclogenesis. While guidance suggests some continuing potential for widely scattered strong thunderstorm development near a lingering frontal zone across the Ohio into lower Missouri Valley on Wednesday, it appears that this will diminish thereafter, with generally negligible risk for organized severe thunderstorm potential into and through next weekend.
..Kerr.. 09/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, September 19
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 16 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, September 17 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, September 18 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, September 19 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, September 20 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130820 SPC AC 130820
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range model output indicates that the initially prominent Southeastern mid-level ridge will slowly retrograde west-southwestward and become increasingly suppressed across the lower latitudes late this coming work week into next weekend. However, it appears that the evolving westerlies across the U.S. will remain modest to weak, with little potential for appreciable surface cyclogenesis. While guidance suggests some continuing potential for widely scattered strong thunderstorm development near a lingering frontal zone across the Ohio into lower Missouri Valley on Wednesday, it appears that this will diminish thereafter, with generally negligible risk for organized severe thunderstorm potential into and through next weekend.
..Kerr.. 09/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, September 20
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 16 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, September 17 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, September 18 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, September 19 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, September 20 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130820 SPC AC 130820
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range model output indicates that the initially prominent Southeastern mid-level ridge will slowly retrograde west-southwestward and become increasingly suppressed across the lower latitudes late this coming work week into next weekend. However, it appears that the evolving westerlies across the U.S. will remain modest to weak, with little potential for appreciable surface cyclogenesis. While guidance suggests some continuing potential for widely scattered strong thunderstorm development near a lingering frontal zone across the Ohio into lower Missouri Valley on Wednesday, it appears that this will diminish thereafter, with generally negligible risk for organized severe thunderstorm potential into and through next weekend.
..Kerr.. 09/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, September 13
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Monday, September 14
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Tuesday, September 15
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Wednesday, September 16
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, September 17
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, September 18
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, September 19
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, September 20
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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