Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, January 10
Outlook Summary
Severe storms are not expected through Sunday morning.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 110044
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 PM CST Sat Jan 10 2026
Valid 110100Z - 111200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe storms are not expected through Sunday morning.
01z Update
A surface cold front will continue to scoot eastward across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast through early Sunday. Thunderstorm potential has largely waned ahead of the front as upper forcing weakens and any modest instability remains offshore over the eastern Gulf and/or over the Gulf Stream. As a result, the general thunderstorm area has been removed across the Southeast.
..Leitman.. 01/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Sunday, January 11
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorm potential appears low on Sunday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 101705
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorm potential appears low on Sunday.
Synopsis
A strong mid/upper trough and attendant deep-layer cyclone will move across the eastern CONUS during the day on Sunday, and then over the Canadian Maritimes and off of the Atlantic Coast by Sunday night. The primary cold front will move through coastal NC and the FL Peninsula through the day. While weak buoyancy may be in place at the start of the period near the NC Outer Banks and portions of the FL Peninsula, weak ascent and lapse rates are expected to limit thunderstorm potential.
An embedded midlevel shortwave trough and secondary cold front will move through parts of the Lower Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Mid Atlantic through the day. In association with these features, shallow convection is expected to develop across parts of the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes into the Mid Atlantic. Thunderstorm potential appears generally limited by very meager to negligible buoyancy, though gusty winds and perhaps very sporadic and isolated lightning flashes could accompany these shallow convective bands.
..Dean.. 01/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Monday, January 12
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 101925
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Sat Jan 10 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday.
Synopsis
Dry and stable conditions will generally preclude thunderstorm development across the CONUS on Monday. A vigorous mid/upper shortwave trough is forecast to move southeast across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Farther south, an upper low is forecast to move northeast across northern Mexico, and begin to influence parts of southwest TX. Weak convective showers may accompany both of these systems, but very meager and shallow elevated buoyancy is expected to limit lightning potential.
..Dean.. 01/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Tuesday, January 13
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, January 13 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, January 14 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, January 15 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, January 16 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, January 17 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100940 SPC AC 100940
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
A large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to develop across the central and eastern U.S. during the mid-week. This feature is forecast to move eastward toward the Atlantic Seaboard late in the week, as another trough takes its place further west across the Mississippi Valley. In response to the pattern, a large area of high pressure is forecast to settle into the central U.S. on Wednesday and move slowly across the Gulf Coast region on Thursday and Friday. Another large area of high pressure is forecast to move southward into the western and central U.S. by the weekend. As a result, the airmass across most of the continental U.S. during the mid to late week should be cold and relatively dry, suggesting thunderstorm development will be unlikely during the Day 4 to 8 period.
..Broyles.. 01/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, January 14
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, January 13 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, January 14 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, January 15 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, January 16 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, January 17 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100940 SPC AC 100940
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
A large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to develop across the central and eastern U.S. during the mid-week. This feature is forecast to move eastward toward the Atlantic Seaboard late in the week, as another trough takes its place further west across the Mississippi Valley. In response to the pattern, a large area of high pressure is forecast to settle into the central U.S. on Wednesday and move slowly across the Gulf Coast region on Thursday and Friday. Another large area of high pressure is forecast to move southward into the western and central U.S. by the weekend. As a result, the airmass across most of the continental U.S. during the mid to late week should be cold and relatively dry, suggesting thunderstorm development will be unlikely during the Day 4 to 8 period.
..Broyles.. 01/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, January 15
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, January 13 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, January 14 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, January 15 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, January 16 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, January 17 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100940 SPC AC 100940
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
A large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to develop across the central and eastern U.S. during the mid-week. This feature is forecast to move eastward toward the Atlantic Seaboard late in the week, as another trough takes its place further west across the Mississippi Valley. In response to the pattern, a large area of high pressure is forecast to settle into the central U.S. on Wednesday and move slowly across the Gulf Coast region on Thursday and Friday. Another large area of high pressure is forecast to move southward into the western and central U.S. by the weekend. As a result, the airmass across most of the continental U.S. during the mid to late week should be cold and relatively dry, suggesting thunderstorm development will be unlikely during the Day 4 to 8 period.
..Broyles.. 01/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, January 16
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, January 13 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, January 14 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, January 15 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, January 16 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, January 17 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100940 SPC AC 100940
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
A large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to develop across the central and eastern U.S. during the mid-week. This feature is forecast to move eastward toward the Atlantic Seaboard late in the week, as another trough takes its place further west across the Mississippi Valley. In response to the pattern, a large area of high pressure is forecast to settle into the central U.S. on Wednesday and move slowly across the Gulf Coast region on Thursday and Friday. Another large area of high pressure is forecast to move southward into the western and central U.S. by the weekend. As a result, the airmass across most of the continental U.S. during the mid to late week should be cold and relatively dry, suggesting thunderstorm development will be unlikely during the Day 4 to 8 period.
..Broyles.. 01/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, January 17
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, January 13 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, January 14 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, January 15 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, January 16 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, January 17 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100940 SPC AC 100940
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
A large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to develop across the central and eastern U.S. during the mid-week. This feature is forecast to move eastward toward the Atlantic Seaboard late in the week, as another trough takes its place further west across the Mississippi Valley. In response to the pattern, a large area of high pressure is forecast to settle into the central U.S. on Wednesday and move slowly across the Gulf Coast region on Thursday and Friday. Another large area of high pressure is forecast to move southward into the western and central U.S. by the weekend. As a result, the airmass across most of the continental U.S. during the mid to late week should be cold and relatively dry, suggesting thunderstorm development will be unlikely during the Day 4 to 8 period.
..Broyles.. 01/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, January 10
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Sunday, January 11
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Monday, January 12
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Tuesday, January 13
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, January 14
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, January 15
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, January 16
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, January 17
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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