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Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado risk remain possible this evening across portions of North Dakota into northern Minnesota and extreme northeast South Dakota.
← back to overviewSPC AC 250054
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026
Valid 250100Z - 251200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL/EASTERN ND INTO NORTHERN MN AND EXTREME NORTHEAST SD
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado risk remain possible this evening across portions of North Dakota into northern Minnesota and extreme northeast South Dakota.
ND into northern MN
Scattered supercells are ongoing this evening across northern MN, while a small storm cluster (with occasional embedded supercell structures) is moving eastward across southeast ND and extreme northeast SD. MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and effective shear of 40-50 kt will continue to provide a favorable environment for organized storms through the evening, though some increase in CINH is expected with time. Ongoing supercell structures will continue to pose a threat of large hail and localized severe gusts, and some tornado threat may persist through at least dusk, given increasing low-level shear/SRH (as observed on the KMVX VWP). Any upscale growth could be accompanied by localized swaths of greater severe-wind threat. An eventual weakening trend is expected late tonight, as CINH continues to increase with time and buoyancy decreases with southeastward extent. See MCD 1726 and MCD 1727 for more information.
Elsewhere
High-based convection may continue to pose a threat for localized strong to severe gusts across parts of the southern Rockies and High Plains, southeast AZ, and the northern Great Basin into parts of ID/western WY/southwest MT though the evening. Weak deep-layer flow/shear should continue to limit potential for a more organized severe threat.
..Dean.. 07/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Isolated severe storms will be possible from the northern Rockies into the upper Midwest, and across portions of southeast Arizona.
← back to overviewSPC AC 241733
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST…AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe storms will be possible from the northern Rockies into the upper Midwest, and across portions of southeast Arizona.
Synopsis
A belt of enhanced mid-level flow will move around the northern periphery of the high amplitude ridge across the central US D2/Saturday. Southwesterly mid-level flow will overspread portions of the northern Rockies, with more northwesterly flow shifting across the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes Region. At the surface, a weak front will extend from a surface low over the northern and central Plains to the Southeast coastal areas.
Northern Rockies
Deeply mixed boundary layer conditions are expected across the Northern Rockies amid dry sub-cloud inverted-v soundings and steep low to mid level lapse rates. Scattered afternoon thunderstorm development is expected across the high terrain. Moderate instability is progged along with strong deep layer shear, which may support isolated stronger cells with potential for strong to severe wind gusts.
South Dakota and the Upper Midwest to the Great Lakes
Strong daytime heating is expected across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Region. Daytime temperatures are progged to possibly exceed 100 F south of the weak front from the Dakotas into the Upper Midwest. With the building high amplitude ridge, warming around the 850-700 mb level will result in capping across much of the more strongly unstable air mass. It does appear that portions of northern/central Minnesota into northern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan may see enough weakening of the cap to allow for isolated thunderstorm development by the afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest veering wind profiles favorable for supercells. Strong deep layer shear and linearly elongated profiles will support large to very large hail and damaging wind. Though low-level shear is more marginal, low tornado potential will exist.
Additional isolated thunderstorms may develop near the Black Hills in South Dakota. Very hot and moderately unstable conditions are expected amid steep low to mid-level lapse rates. Isolated supercells capable of large hail and damaging wind will be possible, with potential for some clustering downstream and increase in damaging wind potential into the evening.
Southeast Arizona
The favorable position of the surface high across the Four Corners will bring moist easterly flow across southeastern Arizona. Some enhancement of the easterly flow will allow for modest shear profiles. It is likely that storms will develop across the high terrain and move into the low deserts through the afternoon/evening. Deeply mixed profiles and modest shear for organization will support potential for strong to severe winds.
..Thornton.. 07/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Severe thunderstorms capable of mainly large hail and damaging winds are possible from the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes into portions of the mid Missouri Valley on Sunday and Sunday night.
← back to overviewSPC AC 241928
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO UPPER MIDWEST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms capable of mainly large hail and damaging winds are possible from the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes into portions of the mid Missouri Valley on Sunday and Sunday night.
Synopsis
Enhanced mid-level flow will round the central US ridge D3/Sunday, overspreading portions of the Midwest and Great Lakes regions. Along with the increasing flow, several shortwave disturbances will shift across the region. At the surface, a low will develop across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest with a surface front moving through the northern Plains/Midwest by the evening.
Upper Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes
Beneath strong upper-level ridging and a very moist air mass with dew points in the 60s to mid 70s, an EML plume will advect eastward across the High Plains into the Midwest/Great Lakes region. This will result in a very volatile and strongly unstable but largely capped air mass. While forcing for ascent will increase, lack of discernible surface features and strength of the capping inversion leads to low confidence in the exact evolution of thunderstorm development. Hi-res guidance does suggest that a few isolated supercells may develop. A conditional threat for large to very large hail, damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado will exist with any storms that can become rooted within the boundary layer, given the presence of 35-50 kt deep-layer shear and the favorable unstable air mass.
As the front shifts south and east through the afternoon/evening and forcing for ascent increases, storms may develop as far west as the eastern Dakotas/Nebraska. It seems probable that a thunderstorm complex could develop across some portion of the upper Mississippi Valley, though confidence in the exact corridor remains low. This will pose a conditional threat for a more focused corridor of damaging wind potential.
..Thornton.. 07/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
| Day 4 | Monday, July 27 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, July 28 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, July 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, July 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, July 31 | predictability too low |
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240837 SPC AC 240837
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Monday
A prominent upper high will remain centered over the central and southern Plains with a belt of enhanced mid-level flow forecast along the periphery of that feature from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes. Within that flow regime, a short-wave trough is forecast to translate through the Great Lakes in tandem with a surface low and trailing cold front. A hot and moist boundary layer is expected ahead of the front, yielding moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Despite veered low-level winds, strengthening mid/upper-level winds in the exit region of a jet streak will contribute to sufficient vertical shear for organized severe storms across portions of the Great Lakes into the OH Valley Monday afternoon into night.
### Day 5/Tuesday
The Day 4/Monday short-wave trough is forecast to evolve into an upper low across southwest ON and the lower Great Lakes with an associated belt of stronger cyclonic flow developing from the OH Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic and NC. At the surface, an area of low pressure will develop from the lower Great Lakes into central NY with a trailing cold front advancing through the upper OH Valley, central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic.
Thunderstorms may be ongoing Tuesday morning along and ahead of the front from the lower Great Lakes and upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Stronger heating is anticipated to the south of the early-day storms from the southern Mid-Atlantic into NC, where moderate to potentially strong instability is forecast. The strongest instability will coincide with modestly strong deep-layer shear to support some severe weather threat in those areas Tuesday afternoon and evening.
### Days 6-8/Wednesday-Friday
The 00Z ensemble means depict a slight westward regression of the dominant mid/upper-level high with persistent troughing along the East Coast. On the periphery of the high, a notable short-wave trough is forecast to progress from the Canadian Rockies on Wednesday through the Prairie Provinces on Thursday with modest height falls along the international border. By Friday, there is some model signal for another short-wave trough to move into the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes regions. At the surface, a more substantial cold front is projected to move into the northern Plains on Thursday, and the upper Midwest and Great Lakes by Friday.
A few severe storms appear possible in the Southeast and northern Plains on Wednesday, the northern Plains on Thursday, and the upper Midwest into the Great Lakes on Friday. Confidence in the magnitude and areal extent of the threat is currently too low to delineate additional areas.
..Mead.. 07/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
| Day 4 | Monday, July 27 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, July 28 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, July 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, July 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, July 31 | predictability too low |
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240837 SPC AC 240837
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Monday
A prominent upper high will remain centered over the central and southern Plains with a belt of enhanced mid-level flow forecast along the periphery of that feature from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes. Within that flow regime, a short-wave trough is forecast to translate through the Great Lakes in tandem with a surface low and trailing cold front. A hot and moist boundary layer is expected ahead of the front, yielding moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Despite veered low-level winds, strengthening mid/upper-level winds in the exit region of a jet streak will contribute to sufficient vertical shear for organized severe storms across portions of the Great Lakes into the OH Valley Monday afternoon into night.
### Day 5/Tuesday
The Day 4/Monday short-wave trough is forecast to evolve into an upper low across southwest ON and the lower Great Lakes with an associated belt of stronger cyclonic flow developing from the OH Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic and NC. At the surface, an area of low pressure will develop from the lower Great Lakes into central NY with a trailing cold front advancing through the upper OH Valley, central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic.
Thunderstorms may be ongoing Tuesday morning along and ahead of the front from the lower Great Lakes and upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Stronger heating is anticipated to the south of the early-day storms from the southern Mid-Atlantic into NC, where moderate to potentially strong instability is forecast. The strongest instability will coincide with modestly strong deep-layer shear to support some severe weather threat in those areas Tuesday afternoon and evening.
### Days 6-8/Wednesday-Friday
The 00Z ensemble means depict a slight westward regression of the dominant mid/upper-level high with persistent troughing along the East Coast. On the periphery of the high, a notable short-wave trough is forecast to progress from the Canadian Rockies on Wednesday through the Prairie Provinces on Thursday with modest height falls along the international border. By Friday, there is some model signal for another short-wave trough to move into the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes regions. At the surface, a more substantial cold front is projected to move into the northern Plains on Thursday, and the upper Midwest and Great Lakes by Friday.
A few severe storms appear possible in the Southeast and northern Plains on Wednesday, the northern Plains on Thursday, and the upper Midwest into the Great Lakes on Friday. Confidence in the magnitude and areal extent of the threat is currently too low to delineate additional areas.
..Mead.. 07/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
| Day 4 | Monday, July 27 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, July 28 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, July 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, July 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, July 31 | predictability too low |
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240837 SPC AC 240837
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Monday
A prominent upper high will remain centered over the central and southern Plains with a belt of enhanced mid-level flow forecast along the periphery of that feature from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes. Within that flow regime, a short-wave trough is forecast to translate through the Great Lakes in tandem with a surface low and trailing cold front. A hot and moist boundary layer is expected ahead of the front, yielding moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Despite veered low-level winds, strengthening mid/upper-level winds in the exit region of a jet streak will contribute to sufficient vertical shear for organized severe storms across portions of the Great Lakes into the OH Valley Monday afternoon into night.
### Day 5/Tuesday
The Day 4/Monday short-wave trough is forecast to evolve into an upper low across southwest ON and the lower Great Lakes with an associated belt of stronger cyclonic flow developing from the OH Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic and NC. At the surface, an area of low pressure will develop from the lower Great Lakes into central NY with a trailing cold front advancing through the upper OH Valley, central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic.
Thunderstorms may be ongoing Tuesday morning along and ahead of the front from the lower Great Lakes and upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Stronger heating is anticipated to the south of the early-day storms from the southern Mid-Atlantic into NC, where moderate to potentially strong instability is forecast. The strongest instability will coincide with modestly strong deep-layer shear to support some severe weather threat in those areas Tuesday afternoon and evening.
### Days 6-8/Wednesday-Friday
The 00Z ensemble means depict a slight westward regression of the dominant mid/upper-level high with persistent troughing along the East Coast. On the periphery of the high, a notable short-wave trough is forecast to progress from the Canadian Rockies on Wednesday through the Prairie Provinces on Thursday with modest height falls along the international border. By Friday, there is some model signal for another short-wave trough to move into the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes regions. At the surface, a more substantial cold front is projected to move into the northern Plains on Thursday, and the upper Midwest and Great Lakes by Friday.
A few severe storms appear possible in the Southeast and northern Plains on Wednesday, the northern Plains on Thursday, and the upper Midwest into the Great Lakes on Friday. Confidence in the magnitude and areal extent of the threat is currently too low to delineate additional areas.
..Mead.. 07/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
| Day 4 | Monday, July 27 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, July 28 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, July 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, July 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, July 31 | predictability too low |
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240837 SPC AC 240837
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Monday
A prominent upper high will remain centered over the central and southern Plains with a belt of enhanced mid-level flow forecast along the periphery of that feature from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes. Within that flow regime, a short-wave trough is forecast to translate through the Great Lakes in tandem with a surface low and trailing cold front. A hot and moist boundary layer is expected ahead of the front, yielding moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Despite veered low-level winds, strengthening mid/upper-level winds in the exit region of a jet streak will contribute to sufficient vertical shear for organized severe storms across portions of the Great Lakes into the OH Valley Monday afternoon into night.
### Day 5/Tuesday
The Day 4/Monday short-wave trough is forecast to evolve into an upper low across southwest ON and the lower Great Lakes with an associated belt of stronger cyclonic flow developing from the OH Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic and NC. At the surface, an area of low pressure will develop from the lower Great Lakes into central NY with a trailing cold front advancing through the upper OH Valley, central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic.
Thunderstorms may be ongoing Tuesday morning along and ahead of the front from the lower Great Lakes and upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Stronger heating is anticipated to the south of the early-day storms from the southern Mid-Atlantic into NC, where moderate to potentially strong instability is forecast. The strongest instability will coincide with modestly strong deep-layer shear to support some severe weather threat in those areas Tuesday afternoon and evening.
### Days 6-8/Wednesday-Friday
The 00Z ensemble means depict a slight westward regression of the dominant mid/upper-level high with persistent troughing along the East Coast. On the periphery of the high, a notable short-wave trough is forecast to progress from the Canadian Rockies on Wednesday through the Prairie Provinces on Thursday with modest height falls along the international border. By Friday, there is some model signal for another short-wave trough to move into the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes regions. At the surface, a more substantial cold front is projected to move into the northern Plains on Thursday, and the upper Midwest and Great Lakes by Friday.
A few severe storms appear possible in the Southeast and northern Plains on Wednesday, the northern Plains on Thursday, and the upper Midwest into the Great Lakes on Friday. Confidence in the magnitude and areal extent of the threat is currently too low to delineate additional areas.
..Mead.. 07/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
| Day 4 | Monday, July 27 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, July 28 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, July 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, July 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, July 31 | predictability too low |
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240837 SPC AC 240837
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Monday
A prominent upper high will remain centered over the central and southern Plains with a belt of enhanced mid-level flow forecast along the periphery of that feature from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes. Within that flow regime, a short-wave trough is forecast to translate through the Great Lakes in tandem with a surface low and trailing cold front. A hot and moist boundary layer is expected ahead of the front, yielding moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Despite veered low-level winds, strengthening mid/upper-level winds in the exit region of a jet streak will contribute to sufficient vertical shear for organized severe storms across portions of the Great Lakes into the OH Valley Monday afternoon into night.
### Day 5/Tuesday
The Day 4/Monday short-wave trough is forecast to evolve into an upper low across southwest ON and the lower Great Lakes with an associated belt of stronger cyclonic flow developing from the OH Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic and NC. At the surface, an area of low pressure will develop from the lower Great Lakes into central NY with a trailing cold front advancing through the upper OH Valley, central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic.
Thunderstorms may be ongoing Tuesday morning along and ahead of the front from the lower Great Lakes and upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Stronger heating is anticipated to the south of the early-day storms from the southern Mid-Atlantic into NC, where moderate to potentially strong instability is forecast. The strongest instability will coincide with modestly strong deep-layer shear to support some severe weather threat in those areas Tuesday afternoon and evening.
### Days 6-8/Wednesday-Friday
The 00Z ensemble means depict a slight westward regression of the dominant mid/upper-level high with persistent troughing along the East Coast. On the periphery of the high, a notable short-wave trough is forecast to progress from the Canadian Rockies on Wednesday through the Prairie Provinces on Thursday with modest height falls along the international border. By Friday, there is some model signal for another short-wave trough to move into the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes regions. At the surface, a more substantial cold front is projected to move into the northern Plains on Thursday, and the upper Midwest and Great Lakes by Friday.
A few severe storms appear possible in the Southeast and northern Plains on Wednesday, the northern Plains on Thursday, and the upper Midwest into the Great Lakes on Friday. Confidence in the magnitude and areal extent of the threat is currently too low to delineate additional areas.
..Mead.. 07/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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