Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, December 10
Outlook Summary
The risk for thunderstorms appears low today.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 100554
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CST Tue Dec 09 2025
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
The risk for thunderstorms appears low today.
Synopsis
The large-scale pattern will feature a ridge across the western CONUS with a trough across the east. A surface low will deepen below 990mb as it moves from the southern Great Lakes to the Northeast during the period. A cold front will extend southwest from this surface low and bring a reinforcing cold/dry airmass to much of the central and eastern CONUS.
Significant moisture (60F dewpoints) will be relegated to far south Florida. However, even here, northerly flow should persist within the post frontal airmass. This should keep any thunderstorm potential well offshore. A brief period of southerly return flow across the western Gulf may bring some near 60F dewpoints to the Texas coast, but this should be short-lived as a reinforcing cold front moves offshore this evening.
Thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS today.
..Bentley/Thornton.. 12/10/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Thursday, December 11
Outlook Summary
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Thursday through Thursday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 100501
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 PM CST Tue Dec 09 2025
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Thursday through Thursday night.
Discussion
Downstream of an increasingly prominent blocking high building near and to the north of the Aleutians, mid-level developments across the eastern Pacific into western North America are still forecast to include a belt of strong flow veering to an increasing northwesterly component across British Columbia and adjacent portions of the Pacific Northwest, through portions of the Canadian Prairies and northern U.S. Great Plains during this period. One or two short wave perturbations on the leading edge of this regime will begin to reinforce broad downstream troughing across the Mississippi Valley into western Atlantic.
Mid-level flow is likely to remain cyclonic as far south as the Gulf Coast states, but heights across much of the South may tend to rise in the wake of a significant lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone forecast to migrate out of the Northeast through the Canadian Maritimes. While progressing farther offshore to the north, it still appears that the primary trailing frontal zone may stall/retreat northeastward across the southern Atlantic Coast through Tennessee Valley vicinity, while advancing southward through the lower Missouri Valley and central Great Plains vicinity by late Thursday night. At the same time, much colder air probably will continue to gradually nose southward to the lee of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies.
Models indicate that a remnant preceding front will become more diffuse across the central through northwestern Gulf Basin, and a gradual boundary-layer modification may continue across the northwestern Gulf as a weak southerly return flow begins to develop. Some boundary-layer moistening appears possible inland across Texas coastal areas, but forecast soundings indicate that this will occur beneath pronounced warm/dry layers in the lower/mid-troposphere, precluding appreciable destabilization through this period.
..Kerr.. 12/10/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Friday, December 12
Outlook Summary
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S. Friday through Friday night, aside from some possible weak thunderstorm activity near Texas coastal areas prior to daybreak Saturday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 100726
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S. Friday through Friday night, aside from some possible weak thunderstorm activity near Texas coastal areas prior to daybreak Saturday.
Discussion
Downstream of a blocking mid-level high, maintaining near/north of the Aleutians, it appears that the evolving flow may include a short wave ridge building inland across British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest during this period. As this occurs, digging short wave troughs farther downstream may reinforce larger-scale mid-level troughing across parts of the northern Great Plains through Great Lakes vicinity. However, in general, models indicate that the persistent cyclonic regime to the east of the Rockies will continue to lose amplitude, with the stronger mid-level height gradient tending to recede northward through the middle Mississippi/Ohio Valleys and Mid Atlantic. In lower levels, a leading surge of colder air to the lee of the Rockies may stall and weaken across the Mid South through south central Great Plains vicinity by late Friday night.
In lower latitudes, mid-level heights may rise on the northwestern periphery of Atlantic subtropical ridging, as far north as southern Florida, downstream of weak mid/upper trough progressing across the northern Mexican Plateau through northwestern Gulf Basin. Beneath this regime, it appears that gradual Gulf boundary-layer moistening will continue. In the vicinity of a weak surface trough forecast to develop near Texas coastal areas by late Friday night, it is possible that destabilization and forcing for ascent may become conducive to weak thunderstorm activity.
..Kerr.. 12/10/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Saturday, December 13
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, December 13 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, December 14 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, December 15 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, December 16 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, December 17 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100914 SPC AC 100914
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Based on the latest medium-range model output, a vigorous digging short wave trough is likely to contribute to substantive mid-level trough amplification once again across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, into and across the Mid Atlantic Seaboard this coming weekend. It appears that this may provide support for significant cyclogenesis along a frontal zone across the northwestern Atlantic, while a strongly confluent mid-level regime in its wake supports the southeastward development of a large cold surface ridge across most areas east of the Rockies, including the offshore Atlantic and Gulf Basin by early next week.
Thereafter, into the middle of next week, mid-level flow may trend a bit more zonal, at least across the northern mid-latitudes of North America. However, there is notable spread evident within and among the various model output concerning short waves emerging from the upstream blocking pattern, before progressing inland within splitting branches of westerlies across and east of the Rockies. After an initial suppression of Gulf boundary-layer moistening early next week, a developing southerly return flow with moistening that may lead to increasing convective potential appears possible across and northeast of the northwestern Gulf coast/lower Mississippi Valley vicinity. The extent to which this could include a risk for severe storms remains unclear, but currently still appears generally low through at least this period.
..Kerr.. 12/10/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, December 14
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, December 13 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, December 14 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, December 15 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, December 16 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, December 17 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100914 SPC AC 100914
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Based on the latest medium-range model output, a vigorous digging short wave trough is likely to contribute to substantive mid-level trough amplification once again across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, into and across the Mid Atlantic Seaboard this coming weekend. It appears that this may provide support for significant cyclogenesis along a frontal zone across the northwestern Atlantic, while a strongly confluent mid-level regime in its wake supports the southeastward development of a large cold surface ridge across most areas east of the Rockies, including the offshore Atlantic and Gulf Basin by early next week.
Thereafter, into the middle of next week, mid-level flow may trend a bit more zonal, at least across the northern mid-latitudes of North America. However, there is notable spread evident within and among the various model output concerning short waves emerging from the upstream blocking pattern, before progressing inland within splitting branches of westerlies across and east of the Rockies. After an initial suppression of Gulf boundary-layer moistening early next week, a developing southerly return flow with moistening that may lead to increasing convective potential appears possible across and northeast of the northwestern Gulf coast/lower Mississippi Valley vicinity. The extent to which this could include a risk for severe storms remains unclear, but currently still appears generally low through at least this period.
..Kerr.. 12/10/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, December 15
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, December 13 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, December 14 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, December 15 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, December 16 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, December 17 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100914 SPC AC 100914
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Based on the latest medium-range model output, a vigorous digging short wave trough is likely to contribute to substantive mid-level trough amplification once again across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, into and across the Mid Atlantic Seaboard this coming weekend. It appears that this may provide support for significant cyclogenesis along a frontal zone across the northwestern Atlantic, while a strongly confluent mid-level regime in its wake supports the southeastward development of a large cold surface ridge across most areas east of the Rockies, including the offshore Atlantic and Gulf Basin by early next week.
Thereafter, into the middle of next week, mid-level flow may trend a bit more zonal, at least across the northern mid-latitudes of North America. However, there is notable spread evident within and among the various model output concerning short waves emerging from the upstream blocking pattern, before progressing inland within splitting branches of westerlies across and east of the Rockies. After an initial suppression of Gulf boundary-layer moistening early next week, a developing southerly return flow with moistening that may lead to increasing convective potential appears possible across and northeast of the northwestern Gulf coast/lower Mississippi Valley vicinity. The extent to which this could include a risk for severe storms remains unclear, but currently still appears generally low through at least this period.
..Kerr.. 12/10/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, December 16
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, December 13 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, December 14 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, December 15 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, December 16 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, December 17 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100914 SPC AC 100914
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Based on the latest medium-range model output, a vigorous digging short wave trough is likely to contribute to substantive mid-level trough amplification once again across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, into and across the Mid Atlantic Seaboard this coming weekend. It appears that this may provide support for significant cyclogenesis along a frontal zone across the northwestern Atlantic, while a strongly confluent mid-level regime in its wake supports the southeastward development of a large cold surface ridge across most areas east of the Rockies, including the offshore Atlantic and Gulf Basin by early next week.
Thereafter, into the middle of next week, mid-level flow may trend a bit more zonal, at least across the northern mid-latitudes of North America. However, there is notable spread evident within and among the various model output concerning short waves emerging from the upstream blocking pattern, before progressing inland within splitting branches of westerlies across and east of the Rockies. After an initial suppression of Gulf boundary-layer moistening early next week, a developing southerly return flow with moistening that may lead to increasing convective potential appears possible across and northeast of the northwestern Gulf coast/lower Mississippi Valley vicinity. The extent to which this could include a risk for severe storms remains unclear, but currently still appears generally low through at least this period.
..Kerr.. 12/10/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, December 17
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, December 13 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, December 14 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, December 15 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, December 16 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, December 17 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100914 SPC AC 100914
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Based on the latest medium-range model output, a vigorous digging short wave trough is likely to contribute to substantive mid-level trough amplification once again across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, into and across the Mid Atlantic Seaboard this coming weekend. It appears that this may provide support for significant cyclogenesis along a frontal zone across the northwestern Atlantic, while a strongly confluent mid-level regime in its wake supports the southeastward development of a large cold surface ridge across most areas east of the Rockies, including the offshore Atlantic and Gulf Basin by early next week.
Thereafter, into the middle of next week, mid-level flow may trend a bit more zonal, at least across the northern mid-latitudes of North America. However, there is notable spread evident within and among the various model output concerning short waves emerging from the upstream blocking pattern, before progressing inland within splitting branches of westerlies across and east of the Rockies. After an initial suppression of Gulf boundary-layer moistening early next week, a developing southerly return flow with moistening that may lead to increasing convective potential appears possible across and northeast of the northwestern Gulf coast/lower Mississippi Valley vicinity. The extent to which this could include a risk for severe storms remains unclear, but currently still appears generally low through at least this period.
..Kerr.. 12/10/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, December 10
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Thursday, December 11
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Friday, December 12
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Saturday, December 13
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, December 14
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, December 15
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, December 16
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, December 17
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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