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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Saturday, June 6

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are expected to develop today from parts of the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into the Northeast. Large hail and severe wind gusts are also expected in the northern High Plains. Strong wind gusts and hail may also occur in parts of the southern Plains.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 060559

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES…OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are expected to develop today from parts of the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into the Northeast. Large hail and severe wind gusts are also expected in the northern High Plains. Strong wind gusts and hail may also occur in parts of the southern Plains.

Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Northeast

An upper-level trough and an associated mid-level jet streak will move eastward into the lower Great Lakes today. A cold front will advance southeastward into the lower Great Lakes, with surface dewpoints ahead of the front in the mid to upper 60s F. An axis of moderate instability appears likely to develop well ahead of the front by early to mid afternoon. As this happens, convective initiation will take place near this axis of instability from northern Indiana eastward into northern Pennsylvania and northeastward into southern New York. Convective coverage will gradually expand, as a broken line segment moves southeastward into the Ohio Valley and toward the coast of the Mid-Atlantic and New England.

RAP forecast soundings at 21Z near the instability axis over northern Ohio and southwestern Pennsylvania have 0-6 km shear near 45 knots, which could support supercell development. Supercells will be capable of severe wind gusts, hail and an isolated tornado threat. During the late afternoon, a transition to more linear development is expected, which should result in an increased wind-damage threat.

Further east from central Pennsylvania into southern New England, forecast soundings at 21Z have 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 30 knot range with 0-3 km lapse rates between 7.5 and 8 C/km. This environment will support severe storm development. Although an isolated supercell will be possible, the most likely mode will be linear, favoring wind-damage as the primary threat. The potential for severe gusts will be maximized from south-central Pennsylvania northeastward into far southern New York. The line segment is expected to reach the Mid-Atlantic and New England Coasts by early evening.

Northern High Plains

West-southwesterly mid-level flow over the northern High Plains will become more southwesterly during the day, as an upper-level trough moves through the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a low will deepen over the northern High Plains, with a trough located northeastward into far northeast Montana. As surface temperatures warm today, moderate instability will develop near the surface trough. This, combined with increasing low-level convergence, will result in scattered convective initiation. Multiple storms are forecast to move northeastward across the northern High Plains during the late afternoon and early evening.

RAP forecast soundings near the surface trough in far northeast Montana at 00Z have MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg with 0-6 km shear near 35 knots. Surface-temperature dewpoint spreads are large with low to mid-level lapse rates in the 8 to 9 C/km range. This should be favorable for high-based supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. The severe threat will likely persist into the early to mid evening.

Southern Plains

A mid-level low will move across west Texas today. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place over the southern Plains, where dewpoints will be from the upper 60s into the mid 70s F. This will result in the development of moderate instability by afternoon. To the east of the mid-level low, low-level convergence is forecast to become maximized over parts of west-central Texas and southern Oklahoma. As a result, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop from late afternoon into the evening. The instability combined with steep low-level lapse rates (exceeding 7 C/km) will support an isolated threat for severe wind gusts and hail.

..Broyles/Lyons.. 06/06/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Sunday, June 7

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe storms capable of large to very large hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two are possible across the northern Plains. More isolated severe storms capable locally damaging wind gusts may occur across portions of the Mid-Atlantic. A brief tornado or two appears possible in eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 060530

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe storms capable of large to very large hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two are possible across the northern Plains. More isolated severe storms capable locally damaging wind gusts may occur across portions of the Mid-Atlantic. A brief tornado or two appears possible in eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.

Synopsis

A vorticity maximum and associated mid/upper-level jet streaks within the base of broader-scale troughing from the lee of the Canadian Rockies into northern Intermountain Region Sunday morning are forecast to accelerate northeast through the northern High Plains, ahead of an upstream jet segment moving onto the Pacific Northwest coast. Elsewhere, an amplified short-wave trough will progress through the Northeast, while a more loosely organized trough progresses through the central and southern Plains through the Ozarks and mid MS Valley.

At the surface, an area of low pressure and associated pre-frontal trough over the western Dakotas will be overtaken by a cold front moving out of the northern Rockies. That frontal system will continue east into the ND-MN Red River Valley, and southeast into the central High Plains by Monday morning. Elsewhere, more of a backdoor cold front will progress south/southwest through the Northeast into Mid-Atlantic.

### Montana and Wyoming into the Dakotas

A hot, deeply mixed boundary layer is expected to develop ahead of the pre-frontal trough over the western Dakotas Sunday afternoon, with the presence of steep low/mid-level lapse rates contributing to an axis of moderate to strong instability. Moderate instability is expected to extend into eastern MT and northeast WY, owing to low-level moisture wrapping around the surface trough. Initial storm development is expected by mid afternoon along the western fringe of the instability axis across southeast MT into north-central and northeast WY as lift is enhanced by terrain, the cold front, and forcing tied to the vorticity maximum and attending jet streaks. A separate thunderstorm regime is expected to evolve by late afternoon into evening over the western Dakotas as the cold front merges with the pre-frontal trough.

The MT/WY storms are expected to mature in a strongly sheared environment, which will favor supercells capable of large hail. Initially marginal vertical shear with the western Dakotas storm regime is expected strengthen through the evening, supporting the potential for supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts as the primary hazards. Some tornado threat may materialize by mid/late evening across portions of north-central ND where strengthening low-level shear will coincide with a more moist, lower-LCL boundary layer. The magnitude of the threat will be contingent on storm mode at that time, given the tendency for more linear forcing along the cold front.

### Central Virginia into the Chesapeake Bay Area

Daytime heating coupled with dewpoints in the 60s will contribute to a moderately unstable air mass by afternoon, ahead of a pre-frontal wind shift moving into the area from the north. Convergence along that boundary along with the glancing influence of the mid-level trough passing to the immediate north are expected to support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon across the discussion area. Relatively warm mid-level temperatures are expected to limit the potential for large hail; however, the presence of steep, low-level lapse rates and 30-35 kt of northwesterly deep-layer shear appear supportive of locally damaging wind gusts through the afternoon into early evening.

### Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas

Forcing for ascent attendant to a vorticity maximum moving through the base of broader-scale troughing is expected to contribute to an increase in thunderstorm coverage early in the day. That scenario would tend to limit air mass destabilization through the afternoon, leaving severe-storm potential in question. However, there is a signal in some guidance that a low-level jet will strengthen during the afternoon into evening, leading to an increase in low-level shear. A concurrent risk for a brief tornado or two may materialize, especially with any storms on the southern or western fringe of the larger convective footprint. That notion is generally supported by the 00z HREF mean 0-1 km SRH, which shows values increasing to 100-150 m2/s2 by Sunday evening.

..Mead.. 06/06/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Monday, June 8

Outlook Summary

Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts appear possible across the central High Plains Monday afternoon and evening.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 060727

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts appear possible across the central High Plains Monday afternoon and evening.

Synopsis

Mid-level heights are forecast to rise over the northern and central High Plains Monday in the wake of a short-wave trough lifting into central Canada, and ahead of an amplifying, upstream system tracking from the northern Great Basin into northern Rockies. At the surface, a frontal system extending from the eastern Dakotas to low pressure over western KS Monday morning is forecast to weaken through the day in response to falling pressures across the northern Rockies.

### Central High Plains

Deepening low pressure over MT and WY in conjunction with a residual surface low over southwest KS or northwest OK will promote the westward advection of an increasingly moist air mass into the higher terrain of eastern CO and southeast WY. That process will occur beneath a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates with a moderately unstable environment developing by afternoon. In the absence of appreciable forcing for ascent, daytime heating and lift along favored terrain may be sufficient to support isolated thunderstorm development by mid to late afternoon. Southwesterly mid-level winds are forecast to strengthen through the day, yielding sufficient vertical shear for supercells capable of large hail. There is some model signal that an isolated hail and wind threat may spread into western parts of NE and KS Monday evening.

### Ozark Plateau into the lower Ohio Valley and Mid-South

A number of models suggest that thunderstorms may be ongoing Monday morning across Ozarks or Ozark Plateau region within a zone of warm advection occurring with the terminus of a nocturnal low-level jet (LLJ). The LLJ is forecast to weaken through the morning, with forcing for ascent becoming much more nebulous into afternoon. The air mass along and south of an expected outflow boundary is forecast to be quite moist and moderate to strongly unstable, and a few severe storms appear possible during the afternoon. Vertical shear will remain weak, which will limit the magnitude of any severe weather threat. The primary uncertainty is exactly where the outflow boundary will reside given considerable model variability in precipitation distribution throughout the day. As such, no severe-weather probabilities will be included in this forecast.

..Mead.. 06/06/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, June 9

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050852 SPC AC 050852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

DISCUSSION

Day4/Monday

Ensemble mean and deterministic model solutions are in generally good agreement in the progression of a lead short-wave trough into central Canada, ahead of an upstream trough evolving along the West Coast. That pattern evolution will result in rising mid-level heights across the northern and central High Plains. At the surface, a cold front initially from the ND-MN Red River Valley into central High Plains will weaken through the day in response to falling pressures over the Rockies.

A reservoir of strong instability is forecast to the south of the decaying front across lower elevations of KS and OK into western MO. There is some model signal for early-day storms over NE to grow upscale into an MCS while moving through the Ozarks. Additional diurnally enhanced storms also appear possible across the central High Plains. The MCS scenario will be contingent on mesoscale processes not readily evident at this time, while the High Plains storms may be fairly isolated. As such, no area will be delineated.

### Day5/Tuesday

The ensemble mean solutions are in relatively good agreement in the continued amplification of the mid-level trough over the western U.S., with strengthening southwest flow aloft overspreading the northern High Plains. The deterministic models indicate a short-wave trough and associated mid-level jet streak moving from the trough base into the northern and central High Plains Tuesday night. At the surface, there is good ensemble clustering in a deepening lee cyclone over the northern High Plains, with that feature moving into the Dakotas by Wednesday morning. That cyclone will be attended by a cold or Pacific front moving out of the northern Rockies. The models suggest that ample instability will reside ahead of the surface low and frontal system, with the strengthening vertical shear contributing to the potential for an organized severe-weather episode over parts of the northern Plains Tuesday afternoon into night.

Day6/Wednesday

The ensembles indicate the primary trough axis across the northern Intermountain Region into the Sierra Nevada or Great Basin with some indication at a lower amplitude disturbance moving through the northern Plains. That notion is generally supported by the deterministic models, which indicate a vorticity maximum and associated jet streak translating through the northern and central Plains, downstream from the primary trough axis. At the surface, ensemble member low pressure plots indicate the northern Plains surface low developing northeast into Manitoba with a trailing cold front pushing east through the northern and central Plains toward the upper MS Valley.

Model guidance is suggestive that strong instability will coincide with more than sufficient vertical shear for supercells, with the overall pattern indicative of a regional severe-weather event across the eastern Dakotas into MN, and potentially into the mid MO Valley.

Day 7/Thursday

The ensemble mean solutions indicate broad troughing from the Interior West into northern Plains. The deterministic solutions begin to vary more significantly in the trough configuration; however, all maintain strong mid-level flow from the central High Plains into upper MS Valley. At the surface, there is larger ensemble member spread in surface low position, though the general consensus suggests one cyclone in southern Manitoba or northwest Ontario and a secondary low over the central High Plains. Both lows would be connected by a southwest-to-northeast oriented boundary.

There is some model indication that the strongest mid-level flow and forcing for ascent will remain displaced to the west/northwest of the effective warm sector. Given that uncertainty, no area will be included.

### Day8/Friday

The ensembles suggest that a low-amplitude disturbance will traverse the north-central U.S., with upstream troughing lingering across the Interior West. In contrast, a number of the deterministic models indicate a relatively deep, closed low moving through the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. In the low levels, there is considerable spread in the position of any surface lows and associated frontal systems, limiting confidence in the location of any severe-weather threat.

..Mead.. 06/05/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, June 10

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050852 SPC AC 050852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

DISCUSSION

Day4/Monday

Ensemble mean and deterministic model solutions are in generally good agreement in the progression of a lead short-wave trough into central Canada, ahead of an upstream trough evolving along the West Coast. That pattern evolution will result in rising mid-level heights across the northern and central High Plains. At the surface, a cold front initially from the ND-MN Red River Valley into central High Plains will weaken through the day in response to falling pressures over the Rockies.

A reservoir of strong instability is forecast to the south of the decaying front across lower elevations of KS and OK into western MO. There is some model signal for early-day storms over NE to grow upscale into an MCS while moving through the Ozarks. Additional diurnally enhanced storms also appear possible across the central High Plains. The MCS scenario will be contingent on mesoscale processes not readily evident at this time, while the High Plains storms may be fairly isolated. As such, no area will be delineated.

### Day5/Tuesday

The ensemble mean solutions are in relatively good agreement in the continued amplification of the mid-level trough over the western U.S., with strengthening southwest flow aloft overspreading the northern High Plains. The deterministic models indicate a short-wave trough and associated mid-level jet streak moving from the trough base into the northern and central High Plains Tuesday night. At the surface, there is good ensemble clustering in a deepening lee cyclone over the northern High Plains, with that feature moving into the Dakotas by Wednesday morning. That cyclone will be attended by a cold or Pacific front moving out of the northern Rockies. The models suggest that ample instability will reside ahead of the surface low and frontal system, with the strengthening vertical shear contributing to the potential for an organized severe-weather episode over parts of the northern Plains Tuesday afternoon into night.

Day6/Wednesday

The ensembles indicate the primary trough axis across the northern Intermountain Region into the Sierra Nevada or Great Basin with some indication at a lower amplitude disturbance moving through the northern Plains. That notion is generally supported by the deterministic models, which indicate a vorticity maximum and associated jet streak translating through the northern and central Plains, downstream from the primary trough axis. At the surface, ensemble member low pressure plots indicate the northern Plains surface low developing northeast into Manitoba with a trailing cold front pushing east through the northern and central Plains toward the upper MS Valley.

Model guidance is suggestive that strong instability will coincide with more than sufficient vertical shear for supercells, with the overall pattern indicative of a regional severe-weather event across the eastern Dakotas into MN, and potentially into the mid MO Valley.

Day 7/Thursday

The ensemble mean solutions indicate broad troughing from the Interior West into northern Plains. The deterministic solutions begin to vary more significantly in the trough configuration; however, all maintain strong mid-level flow from the central High Plains into upper MS Valley. At the surface, there is larger ensemble member spread in surface low position, though the general consensus suggests one cyclone in southern Manitoba or northwest Ontario and a secondary low over the central High Plains. Both lows would be connected by a southwest-to-northeast oriented boundary.

There is some model indication that the strongest mid-level flow and forcing for ascent will remain displaced to the west/northwest of the effective warm sector. Given that uncertainty, no area will be included.

### Day8/Friday

The ensembles suggest that a low-amplitude disturbance will traverse the north-central U.S., with upstream troughing lingering across the Interior West. In contrast, a number of the deterministic models indicate a relatively deep, closed low moving through the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. In the low levels, there is considerable spread in the position of any surface lows and associated frontal systems, limiting confidence in the location of any severe-weather threat.

..Mead.. 06/05/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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---

 

Outlook for Thursday, June 11

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050852 SPC AC 050852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

DISCUSSION

Day4/Monday

Ensemble mean and deterministic model solutions are in generally good agreement in the progression of a lead short-wave trough into central Canada, ahead of an upstream trough evolving along the West Coast. That pattern evolution will result in rising mid-level heights across the northern and central High Plains. At the surface, a cold front initially from the ND-MN Red River Valley into central High Plains will weaken through the day in response to falling pressures over the Rockies.

A reservoir of strong instability is forecast to the south of the decaying front across lower elevations of KS and OK into western MO. There is some model signal for early-day storms over NE to grow upscale into an MCS while moving through the Ozarks. Additional diurnally enhanced storms also appear possible across the central High Plains. The MCS scenario will be contingent on mesoscale processes not readily evident at this time, while the High Plains storms may be fairly isolated. As such, no area will be delineated.

### Day5/Tuesday

The ensemble mean solutions are in relatively good agreement in the continued amplification of the mid-level trough over the western U.S., with strengthening southwest flow aloft overspreading the northern High Plains. The deterministic models indicate a short-wave trough and associated mid-level jet streak moving from the trough base into the northern and central High Plains Tuesday night. At the surface, there is good ensemble clustering in a deepening lee cyclone over the northern High Plains, with that feature moving into the Dakotas by Wednesday morning. That cyclone will be attended by a cold or Pacific front moving out of the northern Rockies. The models suggest that ample instability will reside ahead of the surface low and frontal system, with the strengthening vertical shear contributing to the potential for an organized severe-weather episode over parts of the northern Plains Tuesday afternoon into night.

Day6/Wednesday

The ensembles indicate the primary trough axis across the northern Intermountain Region into the Sierra Nevada or Great Basin with some indication at a lower amplitude disturbance moving through the northern Plains. That notion is generally supported by the deterministic models, which indicate a vorticity maximum and associated jet streak translating through the northern and central Plains, downstream from the primary trough axis. At the surface, ensemble member low pressure plots indicate the northern Plains surface low developing northeast into Manitoba with a trailing cold front pushing east through the northern and central Plains toward the upper MS Valley.

Model guidance is suggestive that strong instability will coincide with more than sufficient vertical shear for supercells, with the overall pattern indicative of a regional severe-weather event across the eastern Dakotas into MN, and potentially into the mid MO Valley.

Day 7/Thursday

The ensemble mean solutions indicate broad troughing from the Interior West into northern Plains. The deterministic solutions begin to vary more significantly in the trough configuration; however, all maintain strong mid-level flow from the central High Plains into upper MS Valley. At the surface, there is larger ensemble member spread in surface low position, though the general consensus suggests one cyclone in southern Manitoba or northwest Ontario and a secondary low over the central High Plains. Both lows would be connected by a southwest-to-northeast oriented boundary.

There is some model indication that the strongest mid-level flow and forcing for ascent will remain displaced to the west/northwest of the effective warm sector. Given that uncertainty, no area will be included.

### Day8/Friday

The ensembles suggest that a low-amplitude disturbance will traverse the north-central U.S., with upstream troughing lingering across the Interior West. In contrast, a number of the deterministic models indicate a relatively deep, closed low moving through the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. In the low levels, there is considerable spread in the position of any surface lows and associated frontal systems, limiting confidence in the location of any severe-weather threat.

..Mead.. 06/05/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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---

 

Outlook for Friday, June 12

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050852 SPC AC 050852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

DISCUSSION

Day4/Monday

Ensemble mean and deterministic model solutions are in generally good agreement in the progression of a lead short-wave trough into central Canada, ahead of an upstream trough evolving along the West Coast. That pattern evolution will result in rising mid-level heights across the northern and central High Plains. At the surface, a cold front initially from the ND-MN Red River Valley into central High Plains will weaken through the day in response to falling pressures over the Rockies.

A reservoir of strong instability is forecast to the south of the decaying front across lower elevations of KS and OK into western MO. There is some model signal for early-day storms over NE to grow upscale into an MCS while moving through the Ozarks. Additional diurnally enhanced storms also appear possible across the central High Plains. The MCS scenario will be contingent on mesoscale processes not readily evident at this time, while the High Plains storms may be fairly isolated. As such, no area will be delineated.

### Day5/Tuesday

The ensemble mean solutions are in relatively good agreement in the continued amplification of the mid-level trough over the western U.S., with strengthening southwest flow aloft overspreading the northern High Plains. The deterministic models indicate a short-wave trough and associated mid-level jet streak moving from the trough base into the northern and central High Plains Tuesday night. At the surface, there is good ensemble clustering in a deepening lee cyclone over the northern High Plains, with that feature moving into the Dakotas by Wednesday morning. That cyclone will be attended by a cold or Pacific front moving out of the northern Rockies. The models suggest that ample instability will reside ahead of the surface low and frontal system, with the strengthening vertical shear contributing to the potential for an organized severe-weather episode over parts of the northern Plains Tuesday afternoon into night.

Day6/Wednesday

The ensembles indicate the primary trough axis across the northern Intermountain Region into the Sierra Nevada or Great Basin with some indication at a lower amplitude disturbance moving through the northern Plains. That notion is generally supported by the deterministic models, which indicate a vorticity maximum and associated jet streak translating through the northern and central Plains, downstream from the primary trough axis. At the surface, ensemble member low pressure plots indicate the northern Plains surface low developing northeast into Manitoba with a trailing cold front pushing east through the northern and central Plains toward the upper MS Valley.

Model guidance is suggestive that strong instability will coincide with more than sufficient vertical shear for supercells, with the overall pattern indicative of a regional severe-weather event across the eastern Dakotas into MN, and potentially into the mid MO Valley.

Day 7/Thursday

The ensemble mean solutions indicate broad troughing from the Interior West into northern Plains. The deterministic solutions begin to vary more significantly in the trough configuration; however, all maintain strong mid-level flow from the central High Plains into upper MS Valley. At the surface, there is larger ensemble member spread in surface low position, though the general consensus suggests one cyclone in southern Manitoba or northwest Ontario and a secondary low over the central High Plains. Both lows would be connected by a southwest-to-northeast oriented boundary.

There is some model indication that the strongest mid-level flow and forcing for ascent will remain displaced to the west/northwest of the effective warm sector. Given that uncertainty, no area will be included.

### Day8/Friday

The ensembles suggest that a low-amplitude disturbance will traverse the north-central U.S., with upstream troughing lingering across the Interior West. In contrast, a number of the deterministic models indicate a relatively deep, closed low moving through the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. In the low levels, there is considerable spread in the position of any surface lows and associated frontal systems, limiting confidence in the location of any severe-weather threat.

..Mead.. 06/05/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

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National Risk Overview

Saturday, June 6

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 30%

Sunday, June 7

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Monday, June 8

ANY SEVERE: 5%

Tuesday, June 9

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Wednesday, June 10

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Thursday, June 11

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, June 12

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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