Severe Weather Outlook
Hayley here - Do you want to see severe weather in your calendar?
* it's like an add-on for your digital calendar NOT a paper calendar
National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, October 30
Outlook Summary
An isolated risk for severe weather is possible today along the middle coast of Texas and central into southern Arizona.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 301957
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
Valid 302000Z - 311200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MIDDLE COAST OF TEXAS AND CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA
### SUMMARY
An isolated risk for severe weather is possible today along the middle coast of Texas and central into southern Arizona.
20z Update
### Middle Coast of TX
The upper trough and associated vorticity maxima noted in the previous outlook continues to shift northeast. Tornado probabilities have been trimmed in the wake of this disturbance. A brief tornado remains possible with any updraft that can take advantage of the enhanced low-level shear in this region. See MCD #2420 for additional details.
Arizona
Visible satellite trends have shown some filtered insolation in the wake of the initial band of precipitation this afternoon, resulting in modest destabilization. Isolated thunderstorms have redeveloped across portions of northwest Arizona and southern Nevada. Additional redevelopment should continue farther south, into central/southern Arizona over the next few hours. Isolated severe hail/winds will be possible with this activity amid the modest deep-layer shear environment. Probabilities have been trimmed slightly in southwest Arizona based on observational trends.
..Karstens.. 10/30/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026/
Middle Coast of TX
An upper trough and associated vorticity maximum evident in midday water-vapor imagery over the Rio Grande Valley will continue east-northeast and reach the Ark-La-Tex and northwest Gulf Coast by late evening. A zone of warm advection immediately ahead of the disturbance will advance northeast up the coast during the afternoon. The inland penetration of higher theta-e into the coastal counties may result in sufficient buoyancy for a couple of stronger updrafts. Some enlargement of the low-level portion of the hodograph within a moist environment may yield a risk for a brief tornado near the coast this afternoon.
Arizona
A shortwave trough moving into southern CA will continue northeast towards the Four Corners during the period. Copious mid to high-level cloud cover will likely limit heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer across the lower desert. Model guidance continues to indicate the possibility for a few stronger thunderstorms developing later today. An isolated risk for marginally severe hail and localized severe gusts may accompany the stronger thunderstorms.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Saturday, October 31
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 301713
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.
Synopsis
A low-amplitude shortwave trough will progress along the Gulf Coast. Farther west, an upper trough will deepen within the Great Basin with another shortwave tough approaching the Baja Peninsula.
Scattered storms are expected within a weak warm advection regime from east Texas into the Mid South and lower Mississippi Valley vicinity. The strongest activity will likely remain offshore. Cold temperatures aloft and minimal buoyancy will support isolated thunderstorm activity within portions of the northern Great Basin. Early morning thunderstorm activity will also be possible within a zone of modest warm advection from southeast South Dakota into eastern Iowa. Little to no severe risk is expected Saturday given the poor thermodynamic environment.
..Wendt.. 10/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Sunday, November 1
Outlook Summary
A few severe storms are anticipated from parts of central New Mexico into parts of western Texas late Sunday into Sunday night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 301934
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS
### SUMMARY
A few severe storms are anticipated from parts of central New Mexico into parts of western Texas late Sunday into Sunday night.
Synopsis
Upper troughs within the Great Basin and near the Baja Peninsula will begin to phase into a broader Southwest trough on Sunday. A surface low will deepen in the eastern Great Basin and evolve eastward into central High Plains by Monday morning. A cold front will move through New Mexico.
New Mexico
Cloud cover will be on the increase ahead of the upper level system. This will lead to some areas not receiving very much surface heating. The greatest surface heating will likely occur in eastern New Mexico into the southern High Plains. Low-level moisture will be maintained by southerly low-level flow. 40s to low 50s F dewpoints can be expected in much of central New Mexico with low 60s F possible farther south/east towards the southern High Plains. The presence of a strong mid-level jet will promote strong wind shear across the region. While supercells will be possible, linear forcing from the front may keep the storm mode more linear in nature. Despite limited buoyancy and the late timing of the activity, the strong wind fields will support a threat for convectively enhanced severe wind gusts. Marginally severe hail may also occur conditional on a supercell storm mode.
..Wendt.. 10/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Monday, November 2
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, November 2 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, November 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, November 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, November 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, November 6 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300859 SPC AC 300859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
A large positive-tilt upper trough will move into the Plains on Monday/D4, with a surface low moving from the central Plains into the Upper MS Valley. A substantial low-level moisture plume with mid 60s F dewpoints will spread north ahead of the developing low and cold front, aided by 40+ kt south/southwest 850 mb winds. The main severe threat should develop during the afternoon along the cold front, where MUCAPE on the order of 1000 J/kg will be likely. Effective deep-layer shear will be near 50 kt, with sufficient low-level turning with height to support both supercells and linear structures late. Damaging winds and perhaps a couple tornadoes will be possible, with sporadic large hail as well.
By Tue/D5, the trough is forecast to become more amplified, with more of a meridional flow pattern aloft spreading across the MS Valley. Substantial rain and thunderstorms are likely along the cold front and elongated surface trough. There is some potential for damaging winds/bows from eastern TX into AR, LA, and MS, but substantial uncertainty exists given marginal instability and widespread clouds/precip.
This system will generally swing eastward across the southeastern states from Wed/D6 into Thu/D7, with at least low-end potential over some of the Gulf Coast states.
..Jewell.. 10/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, November 3
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, November 2 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, November 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, November 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, November 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, November 6 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300859 SPC AC 300859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
A large positive-tilt upper trough will move into the Plains on Monday/D4, with a surface low moving from the central Plains into the Upper MS Valley. A substantial low-level moisture plume with mid 60s F dewpoints will spread north ahead of the developing low and cold front, aided by 40+ kt south/southwest 850 mb winds. The main severe threat should develop during the afternoon along the cold front, where MUCAPE on the order of 1000 J/kg will be likely. Effective deep-layer shear will be near 50 kt, with sufficient low-level turning with height to support both supercells and linear structures late. Damaging winds and perhaps a couple tornadoes will be possible, with sporadic large hail as well.
By Tue/D5, the trough is forecast to become more amplified, with more of a meridional flow pattern aloft spreading across the MS Valley. Substantial rain and thunderstorms are likely along the cold front and elongated surface trough. There is some potential for damaging winds/bows from eastern TX into AR, LA, and MS, but substantial uncertainty exists given marginal instability and widespread clouds/precip.
This system will generally swing eastward across the southeastern states from Wed/D6 into Thu/D7, with at least low-end potential over some of the Gulf Coast states.
..Jewell.. 10/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, November 4
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, November 2 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, November 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, November 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, November 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, November 6 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300859 SPC AC 300859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
A large positive-tilt upper trough will move into the Plains on Monday/D4, with a surface low moving from the central Plains into the Upper MS Valley. A substantial low-level moisture plume with mid 60s F dewpoints will spread north ahead of the developing low and cold front, aided by 40+ kt south/southwest 850 mb winds. The main severe threat should develop during the afternoon along the cold front, where MUCAPE on the order of 1000 J/kg will be likely. Effective deep-layer shear will be near 50 kt, with sufficient low-level turning with height to support both supercells and linear structures late. Damaging winds and perhaps a couple tornadoes will be possible, with sporadic large hail as well.
By Tue/D5, the trough is forecast to become more amplified, with more of a meridional flow pattern aloft spreading across the MS Valley. Substantial rain and thunderstorms are likely along the cold front and elongated surface trough. There is some potential for damaging winds/bows from eastern TX into AR, LA, and MS, but substantial uncertainty exists given marginal instability and widespread clouds/precip.
This system will generally swing eastward across the southeastern states from Wed/D6 into Thu/D7, with at least low-end potential over some of the Gulf Coast states.
..Jewell.. 10/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, November 5
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, November 2 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, November 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, November 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, November 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, November 6 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300859 SPC AC 300859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
A large positive-tilt upper trough will move into the Plains on Monday/D4, with a surface low moving from the central Plains into the Upper MS Valley. A substantial low-level moisture plume with mid 60s F dewpoints will spread north ahead of the developing low and cold front, aided by 40+ kt south/southwest 850 mb winds. The main severe threat should develop during the afternoon along the cold front, where MUCAPE on the order of 1000 J/kg will be likely. Effective deep-layer shear will be near 50 kt, with sufficient low-level turning with height to support both supercells and linear structures late. Damaging winds and perhaps a couple tornadoes will be possible, with sporadic large hail as well.
By Tue/D5, the trough is forecast to become more amplified, with more of a meridional flow pattern aloft spreading across the MS Valley. Substantial rain and thunderstorms are likely along the cold front and elongated surface trough. There is some potential for damaging winds/bows from eastern TX into AR, LA, and MS, but substantial uncertainty exists given marginal instability and widespread clouds/precip.
This system will generally swing eastward across the southeastern states from Wed/D6 into Thu/D7, with at least low-end potential over some of the Gulf Coast states.
..Jewell.. 10/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, November 6
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, November 2 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, November 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, November 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, November 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, November 6 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300859 SPC AC 300859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
A large positive-tilt upper trough will move into the Plains on Monday/D4, with a surface low moving from the central Plains into the Upper MS Valley. A substantial low-level moisture plume with mid 60s F dewpoints will spread north ahead of the developing low and cold front, aided by 40+ kt south/southwest 850 mb winds. The main severe threat should develop during the afternoon along the cold front, where MUCAPE on the order of 1000 J/kg will be likely. Effective deep-layer shear will be near 50 kt, with sufficient low-level turning with height to support both supercells and linear structures late. Damaging winds and perhaps a couple tornadoes will be possible, with sporadic large hail as well.
By Tue/D5, the trough is forecast to become more amplified, with more of a meridional flow pattern aloft spreading across the MS Valley. Substantial rain and thunderstorms are likely along the cold front and elongated surface trough. There is some potential for damaging winds/bows from eastern TX into AR, LA, and MS, but substantial uncertainty exists given marginal instability and widespread clouds/precip.
This system will generally swing eastward across the southeastern states from Wed/D6 into Thu/D7, with at least low-end potential over some of the Gulf Coast states.
..Jewell.. 10/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, October 30
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Saturday, October 31
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Sunday, November 1
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Monday, November 2
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Tuesday, November 3
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, November 4
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, November 5
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, November 6
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Your Severe Outlook
Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.
Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.
Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.
About Severe Weather Outlook . com
SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.
- tornado hq - live severe weather warnings
- cyclocane - hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones
- tornado solitaire - play cards while you monitor the US severe weather threat
- tertremo - live view of earthquakes around the world
- earthquake solitaire - get live earthquake updates as you play your favorite card game