Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, July 8
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains, and from the Missouri Valley into the upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated severe gusts may also occur in parts of the northern High Plains and from North Carolina into southern Virginia.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 30%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 080557
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains, and from the Missouri Valley into the upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated severe gusts may also occur in parts of the northern High Plains and from North Carolina into southern Virginia.
Central Plains/Mid Missouri Valley/Upper Mississippi Valley
At mid-levels, heights will fall today across much of the north-central U.S. as a subtle shortwave trough moves east-southeastward across the region. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward into the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley by afternoon. Along and ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will range from the mid 60s to the lower 70s F. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability will develop along this west-southwest to east-northeast corridor. Low-level convergence will be maximized along and near the front, which will be the primary focus for convective initiation. Scattered thunderstorms will form in the afternoon and move east-southeastward across the instability corridor, with convective development continuing through much of the evening. The instability, combined with moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates, will support a threat for severe wind gusts. The potential for severe wind will be greatest with any line segment that can become sustained and organized. Although there is some uncertainty concerning where the greatest threat will be, it seems possible that a damaging wind swath could occur in parts of southern Nebraska this evening, where a 30 percent wind probability has been added.
Further northeast into central Iowa and south-central Wisconsin, convective coverage is expected to be a bit more widely spaced. However, deep-layer shear will be sufficient for a severe threat as low-level lapse rates and instability become maximized late this afternoon. The primary threat will be for severe wind gusts, with the threat being associated with short intense line segments.
Northern High Plains
At the surface, a lee trough will develop today from eastern Wyoming into eastern Montana. Along and near the trough, surface dewpoints in the 50s F will contribute to the development of moderate instability by afternoon. Although large-scale ascent will be relatively weak, low-level convergence near the trough will aid convective initiation. Thunderstorms will also develop in the higher terrain and move eastward into the lower elevations. The instability, combined with moderate deep-layer shear and steep low to mid-level lapse rates will likely support a potential for isolated severe gusts.
North Carolina/Southern Virginia. At the surface, a very moist airmass will be in place today from the Mid-Atlantic southward into the Carolinas. Surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s F will contribute to an axis of moderate to strong instability across parts of North Carolina and southern Virginia. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop in the foothills of the Appalachians, with the storms moving eastward into the lower elevations during the afternoon. The instability combined with steep low-level lapse rates will support an isolated wind-damage threat.
..Broyles/Moore.. 07/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Thursday, July 9
Outlook Summary
Scattered strong thunderstorm development, potentially including a few evolving clusters, may impact portions of the central Great Plains and lower Missouri Valley through lower Ohio Valley Thursday through Thursday night, posing a risk for severe wind gusts and some hail.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 080527
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Scattered strong thunderstorm development, potentially including a few evolving clusters, may impact portions of the central Great Plains and lower Missouri Valley through lower Ohio Valley Thursday through Thursday night, posing a risk for severe wind gusts and some hail.
Discussion
Modest mid-latitude westerlies likely will remain centered near the Canadian/U.S border through this period. In the wake of one short wave trough slowly continuing to pivot northward into the Northwest Territories, and ahead of another digging near the British Columbia coast, broad mid-level ridging is forecast to build across the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity Thursday through Thursday night. Downstream, to the south of a perturbation digging southeast of Hudson/James Bays, broad mid-level troughing is forecast to overspread the lower Great Lakes through northern Atlantic Seaboard.
In lower latitudes, a number of more subtle perturbations are forecast to progress through generally weak zonal flow, around the northern periphery of mid-level ridging centered in the subtropics. However, there remains a notable signal within model output that at least a couple of these may be amplified by developing convection, accompanied by belts of strengthening flow which could promote organizing convection capable of producing swaths of strong to severe wind gusts.
While the most substantive thunderstorm development through this period appears likely to focus east of the Front Range into portions of the lower Missouri Valley through Ohio Valley, as well as across parts of the northern Mid Atlantic, more widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development appears possible closer to the mid-latitude westerlies. This may focus along a weak surface front advancing slowly southward across parts of the lower Great Lakes through northern New England, and within lee surface troughing across parts of the northern Great Plains.
Lower Missouri/Ohio Valleys
Most guidance continues to indicate the generation of one or two notable mesoscale convective vortices and associated jet streaks, at least initially emanating from convection developing across the central Great Plains Wednesday night. The NAM continues to forecast the strongest convective perturbation, though the 08/00Z run now suggests that this will occur with convection overspreading east central Missouri into southern Illinois late Thursday night. Otherwise, a consensus of guidance generally suggests the development of strengthening westerly mid-level flow (on the order of 30-50 kt around 700 mb) in a belt across the lower Missouri Valley during the day, before slowly shifting toward the lower Ohio Valley through Thursday night.
Based on latest model output, strongest renewed thunderstorm development seems most probable within forcing for ascent associated with strengthening low-level warm advection, along an outflow boundary trailing the initial MCV. Aided by inflow of seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content (including surface dew points in the 70s) supportive of CAPE on the order of 2000+ J/kg, vertical shear may become supportive of a sustained organized convective system with potential to produce strong to severe wind gusts by Thursday evening into Thursday night, if not earlier.
Front Range into central Great Plains
Latest model output continues to indicate that moistening southeasterly low-level flow across the high plains will destabilize sufficiently by late afternoon to support intensifying thunderstorm development off the Front Range. Aided by shear due to pronounced veering of winds with height from the surface to mid-levels, this may include widely scattered supercells initially.
Aided by forcing for ascent downstream of an approaching mid-level perturbation, convection-allowing guidance suggests that storms will subsequently increase in number across the high plains, with consolidating cold pools supporting further upscale growth and eastward propagation. Forcing for ascent near the nose of a strengthening nocturnal southerly low-level jet may contribute to maintenance of a cluster with potential to produce strong to severe gusts into late evening/overnight across the southwestern Kansas vicinity.
Mid Atlantic
Destabilization within lee surface troughing may become sufficient to support thunderstorm development with potential to produce strong wind gusts and grow upscale Thursday afternoon into evening, aided by forcing for ascent and modest strengthening of mid-level flow, associated with a remnant short wave impulse emerging from the Tennessee Valley.
Southeastern Arizona
Convection-allowing and related guidance suggests that thunderstorm development is probable Thursday afternoon across parts of the Mogollon Rim into higher terrain of southwestern New Mexico, and perhaps southeastern Arizona, around the eastern periphery of a weakening mid-level ridge. Aided by light northeasterly steering flow off the mountains, into a hot and deeply mixed boundary layer with at least weak CAPE, a few strong downbursts appear possible, with potential for upscale growth on consolidating cold pools to generate a broader strong to severe wind gust threat into Thursday evening.
..Kerr.. 07/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Friday, July 10
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, July 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, July 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, July 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, July 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, July 14 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070906 SPC AC 070906
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
CORRECTED FOR SPELLING
DISCUSSION
Medium-range model output continues to indicate the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid/upper high across the lower Colorado Valley and Plateau late this week into next weekend. It appears likely that this will continue expanding and encompassing a significant portion of the interior U.S. by early next week, as an evolving larger-scale trough begins to dig across and southeast of Hudson Bay. While there appears relatively small spread within and among the various model output concerning this larger-scale evolution, there is considerable spread concerning the migration of one particularly notable short wave trough around the periphery of the ridge.
Of particular concern, it appears probable that a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air will advect along the southern fringe of a belt of intensifying flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of the mid/upper ridge. As it does, coupled with low-level moistening, this type of regime could support the periodic evolution of organizing clusters, potentially including one or two potentially long-lived, accompanied by swaths of damaging surface gusts.
It appears that this could focus anywhere from near and north of the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity through the Great Lakes into the Northeast by early next week. However, due to lingering uncertainty with the synoptic developments, and the generally low predictability of these mesoscale systems, in this type of regime at this extended range, severe probabilities still appear less than 15 percent. However, depending on model trends, this could change in later outlooks for this period.
..Kerr.. 07/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, July 11
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, July 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, July 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, July 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, July 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, July 14 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070906 SPC AC 070906
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
CORRECTED FOR SPELLING
DISCUSSION
Medium-range model output continues to indicate the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid/upper high across the lower Colorado Valley and Plateau late this week into next weekend. It appears likely that this will continue expanding and encompassing a significant portion of the interior U.S. by early next week, as an evolving larger-scale trough begins to dig across and southeast of Hudson Bay. While there appears relatively small spread within and among the various model output concerning this larger-scale evolution, there is considerable spread concerning the migration of one particularly notable short wave trough around the periphery of the ridge.
Of particular concern, it appears probable that a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air will advect along the southern fringe of a belt of intensifying flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of the mid/upper ridge. As it does, coupled with low-level moistening, this type of regime could support the periodic evolution of organizing clusters, potentially including one or two potentially long-lived, accompanied by swaths of damaging surface gusts.
It appears that this could focus anywhere from near and north of the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity through the Great Lakes into the Northeast by early next week. However, due to lingering uncertainty with the synoptic developments, and the generally low predictability of these mesoscale systems, in this type of regime at this extended range, severe probabilities still appear less than 15 percent. However, depending on model trends, this could change in later outlooks for this period.
..Kerr.. 07/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, July 12
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, July 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, July 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, July 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, July 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, July 14 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070906 SPC AC 070906
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
CORRECTED FOR SPELLING
DISCUSSION
Medium-range model output continues to indicate the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid/upper high across the lower Colorado Valley and Plateau late this week into next weekend. It appears likely that this will continue expanding and encompassing a significant portion of the interior U.S. by early next week, as an evolving larger-scale trough begins to dig across and southeast of Hudson Bay. While there appears relatively small spread within and among the various model output concerning this larger-scale evolution, there is considerable spread concerning the migration of one particularly notable short wave trough around the periphery of the ridge.
Of particular concern, it appears probable that a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air will advect along the southern fringe of a belt of intensifying flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of the mid/upper ridge. As it does, coupled with low-level moistening, this type of regime could support the periodic evolution of organizing clusters, potentially including one or two potentially long-lived, accompanied by swaths of damaging surface gusts.
It appears that this could focus anywhere from near and north of the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity through the Great Lakes into the Northeast by early next week. However, due to lingering uncertainty with the synoptic developments, and the generally low predictability of these mesoscale systems, in this type of regime at this extended range, severe probabilities still appear less than 15 percent. However, depending on model trends, this could change in later outlooks for this period.
..Kerr.. 07/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, July 13
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, July 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, July 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, July 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, July 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, July 14 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070906 SPC AC 070906
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
CORRECTED FOR SPELLING
DISCUSSION
Medium-range model output continues to indicate the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid/upper high across the lower Colorado Valley and Plateau late this week into next weekend. It appears likely that this will continue expanding and encompassing a significant portion of the interior U.S. by early next week, as an evolving larger-scale trough begins to dig across and southeast of Hudson Bay. While there appears relatively small spread within and among the various model output concerning this larger-scale evolution, there is considerable spread concerning the migration of one particularly notable short wave trough around the periphery of the ridge.
Of particular concern, it appears probable that a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air will advect along the southern fringe of a belt of intensifying flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of the mid/upper ridge. As it does, coupled with low-level moistening, this type of regime could support the periodic evolution of organizing clusters, potentially including one or two potentially long-lived, accompanied by swaths of damaging surface gusts.
It appears that this could focus anywhere from near and north of the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity through the Great Lakes into the Northeast by early next week. However, due to lingering uncertainty with the synoptic developments, and the generally low predictability of these mesoscale systems, in this type of regime at this extended range, severe probabilities still appear less than 15 percent. However, depending on model trends, this could change in later outlooks for this period.
..Kerr.. 07/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, July 14
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, July 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, July 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, July 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, July 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, July 14 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070906 SPC AC 070906
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
CORRECTED FOR SPELLING
DISCUSSION
Medium-range model output continues to indicate the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid/upper high across the lower Colorado Valley and Plateau late this week into next weekend. It appears likely that this will continue expanding and encompassing a significant portion of the interior U.S. by early next week, as an evolving larger-scale trough begins to dig across and southeast of Hudson Bay. While there appears relatively small spread within and among the various model output concerning this larger-scale evolution, there is considerable spread concerning the migration of one particularly notable short wave trough around the periphery of the ridge.
Of particular concern, it appears probable that a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air will advect along the southern fringe of a belt of intensifying flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of the mid/upper ridge. As it does, coupled with low-level moistening, this type of regime could support the periodic evolution of organizing clusters, potentially including one or two potentially long-lived, accompanied by swaths of damaging surface gusts.
It appears that this could focus anywhere from near and north of the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity through the Great Lakes into the Northeast by early next week. However, due to lingering uncertainty with the synoptic developments, and the generally low predictability of these mesoscale systems, in this type of regime at this extended range, severe probabilities still appear less than 15 percent. However, depending on model trends, this could change in later outlooks for this period.
..Kerr.. 07/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, July 8
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 30%
- Thursday, July 9
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Friday, July 10
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, July 11
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, July 12
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, July 13
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, July 14
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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