Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, June 15
Outlook Summary
Isolated large hail and severe thunderstorm winds may occur across the southern High Plains and Dakotas/Upper Midwest this afternoon and evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 151943
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026
Valid 152000Z - 161200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND FROM THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS TO CENTRAL MINNESOTA
### SUMMARY
Isolated large hail and severe thunderstorm winds may occur across the southern High Plains and Dakotas/Upper Midwest this afternoon and evening.
20z Update
No appreciable forecast changes were required. Based on latest analyses, the highest severe wind threat remains across the eastern Dakotas/western Minnesota where low-level lapse rates have increased to near dry adiabatic ahead of approaching convection attendant to a low-level vorticity maximum. A few recent severe wind gusts have accompanied some of this convection as it moves into the plume of steep low-level lapse rates. However, based on latest guidance thunderstorm coverage should remain widely scattered through early evening, suggesting that 5% wind probabilities remain the most appropriate characterization of the risk.
Across the southern High Plains, convective initiation is underway within the southern Rockies. Per MRMS vertical ice trends, some large hail may accompany some of this initial activity before it spreads east through the evening. Based on latest model trends, a convective cluster will likely materialize out of the scattered thunderstorms north of the Albuquerque area and will pose a severe wind threat downstream across east-central NM later this evening. As with the northern Plains, this threat should be sufficiently isolated to maintain only 5% wind probabilities. See the previous discussion below and MCDs #1149 and #1150 for additional forecast details.
..Moore.. 06/15/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026/
Southern High Plains
Northwesterly flow aloft will support a sharpening lee trough across the southern High Plains today, with lee cyclogenesis yielding a surface low over southeast CO by the late afternoon. Mass response to the deepening lee trough and developing surface low will result in moist low-level southeasterly/southerly flow across much of the southern High Plains. This moistening will help offset mixing via diurnal heating, keeping dewpoints in the 50s through the afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates will be in place as well, with the combination of low-level moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates supporting airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy by this afternoon.
Thunderstorm development is initially expected over the high terrain of south-central CO and central NM during the afternoon. Moderate deep-layer westerly flow will take these storms into the lower elevations of the southern High Plains during the late afternoon and evening. Moderate buoyancy combined with 30 to 40 kt of effective shear will support the potential for a few supercells and sustained multicells, with potential consolidation into small organizing southeastward-moving clusters. Hail is possible early in the convective cycle, with a trend towards more damaging gusts within any forward-propagating clusters during the late afternoon and evening.
Dakotas/Minnesota
Morning satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough dropping southeastward into the northern Plains within the western periphery of a broad upper trough that extends over much of the central and eastern CONUS. Surface moisture will be limited ahead of this wave, but low to mid-level moisture attendant to the shortwave and cold temperatures aloft will still support modest buoyancy across the region this afternoon. This buoyancy coupled with ascent from the shortwave will result in isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms. Additionally, strengthening west-northwesterly flow attendant to the shortwave could yield some strong/locally severe wind gusts this afternoon through around sunset.
Gulf Coast/Coastal Southeast
A very moist airmass is in place in the vicinity of a weak frontal zone that extends from the TX Coast northeastward through the central Gulf Coast and southern GA. Numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms are anticipated across much of this region. The airmass is weakly sheared, favoring a slow-moving, disorganized storm evolution with heavy rain as the primary risk (as noted in the Day 1 WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook). However, a few damaging gusts from water-loaded downbursts are still possible. Overall coverage is expected to remain less than 5%.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Tuesday, June 16
Outlook Summary
Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening across parts of the Midwest into Lower Michigan. Additional strong to severe storms are possible across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest Tuesday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 151728
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST…THE GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS…AND THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COAST.
### SUMMARY
Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening across parts of the Midwest into Lower Michigan. Additional strong to severe storms are possible across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest Tuesday night.
Synopsis
A belt of moderate to strong mid-level flow will extend from the Northwest to the northern Plains and the Midwest and to the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday. Within this flow, a mid-level shortwave trough will move through the Great Lakes. An additional, stronger shortwave trough will amplify across the northern Plains toward the end of the period. A weak surface low will move through the northern Great Lakes through the day and weaken while an associated cold front moves across the Midwest and eventually stalls toward the end of the period. A stronger surface low will develop across the northern Plains Tuesday night and will be located somewhere near eastern South Dakota by the end of the period.
Midwest to the Central Plains
Strengthening lower tropospheric flow will transport moisture northward ahead of a cold front tomorrow morning/afternoon with weak to potentially moderate instability expected. An initial line of storms will likely develop on the leading edge of the returning moisture in a more well-mixed and uncapped environment. This activity will likely stay sub-severe, but a few isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible given the steep low-level lapse rates and strengthening flow. The greater severe weather potential is expected along the cold front during the afternoon where upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints should be present. Cloud-cover from initial activity should limit overall instability (and a more substantial threat), but cooling temperatures aloft should provide adequate instability for strong to severe storms along the front. The strong shear across the region will support the potential for rotating updrafts capable of isolated large hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado. If instability trends increase, an upgrade to Slight Risk (Level 2/5) may be necessary in later outlooks across northern Indiana, southern Michigan and northwest Ohio.
Northern Plains to the Upper Midwest
Tuesday night, as the mid-level trough amplifies across the northern Plains, the frontal zone across the northern Plains will tighten. Instability is forecast to be relatively weak initially, but strong forcing from dCVA across the region, strengthening isentropic ascent due to the strengthening cyclone, and strong shear beneath the 100+ knot 300mb jet streak will provide an environment that supports isolated strong to severe storms along the frontal zone despite the weak instability.
Within this larger marginal risk region, a greater severe threat may exist shortly before 12Z across northern Iowa and vicinity. Here richer 850 moisture, advected by the strengthening low-level jet, will yield greater elevated instability (1500 to 2000 J/kg MUCAPE). This will provide an environment featuring moderate instability and strong shear amid strengthening isentropic ascent.
Gulf Coast
Most guidance shows a MCV developing across northern Mexico/south Texas today, which is already somewhat apparent across the region. This feature is forecast to move into the western Gulf on Tuesday. Strengthening flow associated with this MCV will overspread the Texas and Louisiana Coast tomorrow. A tropical environment will be present with weak mid-level lapse rates. However, this strengthening flow may support an isolated tornado threat from the central Texas Coast to the eastern Louisiana Coast.
..Bentley.. 06/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Wednesday, June 17
Outlook Summary
An all-hazards severe thunderstorm event is expected across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley into Indiana on Wednesday. Intense thunderstorms may produce swaths of damaging wind, as well as strong tornadoes and very large hail.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 45%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 151931
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO.
### SUMMARY
An all-hazards severe thunderstorm event is expected across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley into Indiana on Wednesday. Intense thunderstorms may produce swaths of damaging wind, as well as strong tornadoes and very large hail.
Synopsis
A strong mid-level jet will extend from the Northwest to the Ohio Valley. An embedded 75 to 85 knot mid-level shortwave trough will extend from Nebraska into Iowa by Wednesday afternoon. A strong surface cyclone will move from eastern South Dakota to southern Ontario during the period.
Midwest
Elevated supercells will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across central/eastern Iowa at the nose of the low-level jet. This cluster will continue to move east-southeast along/north of the warm front through the day. This activity will likely have some hail threat through the day with at least some tornado threat on the southern periphery if any storms can latch onto the warm front. Strong lower tropospheric flow should result in rapid recovery/destabilization in the wake of these morning storms across central/northern Illinois. A very favorable kinematic environment will be in place with 70 knots of mid-level flow and 100+ knots of upper-level flow with a 60+ knot low-level jet. Therefore, any storms which develop within this zone could have a threat for very large hail, and strong tornadoes. Due to this morning convection, there is considerable uncertainty exactly where this most favorable environment may set up and how broad of a region it will be. Notably, strong isentropic ascent is forecast along the frontal zone through the entire period which could result in continued development along the warm frontal zone (more widespread than currently depicted by guidance) and a limited window for recovery in the wake of the morning storms.
Despite these uncertainties, have upgraded severe probabilities to 45% in the region where multiple rounds of severe weather appear most likely. Conceptually, the 12Z RRFS solution matches a reasonable solution with a morning cluster of supercells including a severe supercell on the southern extent. Additional supercells developing along the trailing outflow/warm front during the afternoon, followed by supercells developing along the cold front by late afternoon. Even if storm development north of the warm front is quite extensive during the day, forecast soundings show a Bunkers storm motion parallel to the expected front/outflow orientation. This points toward a favorable environment for one or more supercells to move along the boundary in a favorable tornadic environment.
Widespread storm development is expected along the cold front by late afternoon from southeast Iowa to far eastern Kansas. Very strong instability and moderate to strong shear will support supercells capable of large to very large hail. In addition, strong low-level shear will support the potential for strong tornadoes. There is some question regarding storm mode along the front. Strong forcing would favor more storm interaction and upscale growth, but fast storm motions (40-50 knots) and a Bunkers RM motion nearly perpendicular to the front may support maintenance of supercell mode at least within some areas along the front. This would support a greater tornado threat during the evening from north-central Missouri to central Illinois. If storms do grow more upscale early in the lifecycle, the tornado/hail threat would be reduced, but the threat for significant wind gusts would increase substantially.
Gulf Coast
A Marginal Risk has been added along the Gulf as a tropical airmass moves inland with a strengthening wind field associated with the tropical disturbance identified by the NHC.
..Bentley.. 06/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Thursday, June 18
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, June 18 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Friday, June 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, June 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, June 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, June 22 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150757 SPC AC 150757
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Thursday – Mid-Atlantic/Northeast
Strong mid/upper level westerly flow will overspread portions of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast as a shortwave trough pivots across Quebec/Ontario and the Northeast U.S. on Thursday. Quite a bit of uncertainty exists regarding severe potential. Early day convection and cloud cover may limited destabilization from the Upper Ohio Valley into parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic and northeast. Additionally, stronger mid/upper level flow will become increasingly displaced to the north from richer boundary-layer moisture and stronger instability. Nevertheless, sufficient overlap of strong flow atop a moist airmass should occur from southern Ohio/eastern KY into the Mid-Atlantic, supporting a risk for severe thunderstorms on Thursday. This area will likely shift some in the coming days as mesoscale details become better resolved.
Days 5-8/Friday-Monday
A surface front will sag southward across the Gulf Coast states, with surface high pressure centered over the Mid-South vicinity on Friday. This should suppress the overall severe risk as richer boundary layer moisture remains confined to TX and the Gulf Coast. On Saturday, northward transport of Gulf moisture across the Plains is expected beneath a building upper ridge. By Sunday, an upper trough over the West may eject eastward into the Plains, resulting in some return of severe thunderstorm potential this weekend, though spread among forecast guidance is quite large and predictability is low late in the forecast period.
..Leitman.. 06/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, June 19
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, June 18 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Friday, June 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, June 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, June 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, June 22 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150757 SPC AC 150757
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Thursday – Mid-Atlantic/Northeast
Strong mid/upper level westerly flow will overspread portions of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast as a shortwave trough pivots across Quebec/Ontario and the Northeast U.S. on Thursday. Quite a bit of uncertainty exists regarding severe potential. Early day convection and cloud cover may limited destabilization from the Upper Ohio Valley into parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic and northeast. Additionally, stronger mid/upper level flow will become increasingly displaced to the north from richer boundary-layer moisture and stronger instability. Nevertheless, sufficient overlap of strong flow atop a moist airmass should occur from southern Ohio/eastern KY into the Mid-Atlantic, supporting a risk for severe thunderstorms on Thursday. This area will likely shift some in the coming days as mesoscale details become better resolved.
Days 5-8/Friday-Monday
A surface front will sag southward across the Gulf Coast states, with surface high pressure centered over the Mid-South vicinity on Friday. This should suppress the overall severe risk as richer boundary layer moisture remains confined to TX and the Gulf Coast. On Saturday, northward transport of Gulf moisture across the Plains is expected beneath a building upper ridge. By Sunday, an upper trough over the West may eject eastward into the Plains, resulting in some return of severe thunderstorm potential this weekend, though spread among forecast guidance is quite large and predictability is low late in the forecast period.
..Leitman.. 06/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, June 20
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, June 18 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Friday, June 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, June 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, June 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, June 22 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150757 SPC AC 150757
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Thursday – Mid-Atlantic/Northeast
Strong mid/upper level westerly flow will overspread portions of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast as a shortwave trough pivots across Quebec/Ontario and the Northeast U.S. on Thursday. Quite a bit of uncertainty exists regarding severe potential. Early day convection and cloud cover may limited destabilization from the Upper Ohio Valley into parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic and northeast. Additionally, stronger mid/upper level flow will become increasingly displaced to the north from richer boundary-layer moisture and stronger instability. Nevertheless, sufficient overlap of strong flow atop a moist airmass should occur from southern Ohio/eastern KY into the Mid-Atlantic, supporting a risk for severe thunderstorms on Thursday. This area will likely shift some in the coming days as mesoscale details become better resolved.
Days 5-8/Friday-Monday
A surface front will sag southward across the Gulf Coast states, with surface high pressure centered over the Mid-South vicinity on Friday. This should suppress the overall severe risk as richer boundary layer moisture remains confined to TX and the Gulf Coast. On Saturday, northward transport of Gulf moisture across the Plains is expected beneath a building upper ridge. By Sunday, an upper trough over the West may eject eastward into the Plains, resulting in some return of severe thunderstorm potential this weekend, though spread among forecast guidance is quite large and predictability is low late in the forecast period.
..Leitman.. 06/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, June 21
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, June 18 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Friday, June 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, June 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, June 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, June 22 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150757 SPC AC 150757
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Thursday – Mid-Atlantic/Northeast
Strong mid/upper level westerly flow will overspread portions of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast as a shortwave trough pivots across Quebec/Ontario and the Northeast U.S. on Thursday. Quite a bit of uncertainty exists regarding severe potential. Early day convection and cloud cover may limited destabilization from the Upper Ohio Valley into parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic and northeast. Additionally, stronger mid/upper level flow will become increasingly displaced to the north from richer boundary-layer moisture and stronger instability. Nevertheless, sufficient overlap of strong flow atop a moist airmass should occur from southern Ohio/eastern KY into the Mid-Atlantic, supporting a risk for severe thunderstorms on Thursday. This area will likely shift some in the coming days as mesoscale details become better resolved.
Days 5-8/Friday-Monday
A surface front will sag southward across the Gulf Coast states, with surface high pressure centered over the Mid-South vicinity on Friday. This should suppress the overall severe risk as richer boundary layer moisture remains confined to TX and the Gulf Coast. On Saturday, northward transport of Gulf moisture across the Plains is expected beneath a building upper ridge. By Sunday, an upper trough over the West may eject eastward into the Plains, resulting in some return of severe thunderstorm potential this weekend, though spread among forecast guidance is quite large and predictability is low late in the forecast period.
..Leitman.. 06/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, June 22
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, June 18 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Friday, June 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, June 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, June 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, June 22 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150757 SPC AC 150757
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Thursday – Mid-Atlantic/Northeast
Strong mid/upper level westerly flow will overspread portions of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast as a shortwave trough pivots across Quebec/Ontario and the Northeast U.S. on Thursday. Quite a bit of uncertainty exists regarding severe potential. Early day convection and cloud cover may limited destabilization from the Upper Ohio Valley into parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic and northeast. Additionally, stronger mid/upper level flow will become increasingly displaced to the north from richer boundary-layer moisture and stronger instability. Nevertheless, sufficient overlap of strong flow atop a moist airmass should occur from southern Ohio/eastern KY into the Mid-Atlantic, supporting a risk for severe thunderstorms on Thursday. This area will likely shift some in the coming days as mesoscale details become better resolved.
Days 5-8/Friday-Monday
A surface front will sag southward across the Gulf Coast states, with surface high pressure centered over the Mid-South vicinity on Friday. This should suppress the overall severe risk as richer boundary layer moisture remains confined to TX and the Gulf Coast. On Saturday, northward transport of Gulf moisture across the Plains is expected beneath a building upper ridge. By Sunday, an upper trough over the West may eject eastward into the Plains, resulting in some return of severe thunderstorm potential this weekend, though spread among forecast guidance is quite large and predictability is low late in the forecast period.
..Leitman.. 06/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, June 15
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Tuesday, June 16
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Wednesday, June 17
- ANY SEVERE: 45%
- Thursday, June 18
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Friday, June 19
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, June 20
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, June 21
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, June 22
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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