Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, November 13
Outlook Summary
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. today or tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 131954
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026
Valid 132000Z - 141200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. today or tonight.
20Z Update
The forecast remains on track, and minimal changes were needed with this update. For information regarding strong-storm potential in northern CA and across parts of the Southwest, see the previous discussion below.
..Weinman.. 11/13/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1014 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026/
Southeast AZ
A strong shortwave trough is rotating across northwest Mexico. This feature will affect southern AZ, providing increasing large scale ascent and steep lapse rates through the afternoon and evening. Visible satellite imagery suggests rather widespread cloud cover will affect much of southern AZ, and low-level moisture is limited. These factors should keep MLCAPE values below 500 J/kg. Winds aloft are also relatively weak. While organized severe storms appear unlikely today, scattered showers and thunderstorms will track across the region, with some concern for a few strong wind gusts in the more intense cells.
Northern CA
A strong cold front has moved inland across northern CA, with intense low and mid level wind fields accompanying the front. No lightning has been observed with the line thus far, and thermodynamic profiles remain quite weak. Nevertheless, strong wind gusts may accompany the shallow convective line, and even an orographically-induced brief tornado is possible - mainly through mid afternoon.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Saturday, November 14
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely across the U.S. Saturday and Saturday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 131712
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely across the U.S. Saturday and Saturday night.
Synopsis
Mid-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave over the western CONUS that is forecast to de-amplify as if shifts eastward over the next 48 hours. As de-amplification occurs the primary vorticity maximum and attendant jet streak will migrate across the Southwest and into the southern Plains through Sunday morning. Cold temperatures aloft attendant to the upper low, coupled with ascent within the left-exit region of a weakening jet and eventually within the warm advection branch of an intensifying low-level cyclone, will support isolated to scattered thunderstorms from the Four Corners into western Texas/Oklahoma. The prevailing consensus among guidance continues to depict modest and shallow buoyancy profiles characterized by equilibrium temperatures near 500 mb and only around 250-500 J/kg MUCAPE. Despite somewhat elongated hodographs, effective shear through the CAPE-bearing layer is forecast to remain limited. Given these concerns, the expectation is that convection will largely remain sub-severe, though instances of small hail appear possible - especially if deeper buoyancy profiles can be achieved as suggested by recent RRFS solutions.
Elsewhere, more sporadic lightning flashes are anticipated along the northern CA and OR coasts as a secondary upper wave approaches the region. Isolated thunderstorms, including a few strong storms, will also be possible along and just off the southern TX Gulf coast within a weak warm advection regime.
..Moore.. 11/13/2026
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Sunday, November 15
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across central and the south Texas to the Gulf Coast.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 131932
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across central and the south Texas to the Gulf Coast.
Synopsis
The upper wave currently moving inland along the West Coast is forecast to weaken as it migrates into the southern Plains this weekend. Residual showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing by 12z Sunday across central TX to southwest OK owing to a combination of broad-scale ascent attendant to the wave and strong low-level warm advection. While some small hail appears possible with this early activity, buoyancy profiles will likely remain too shallow to support deep, robust convection.
To the south of ongoing showers/thunderstorms, southerly flow off the TX Gulf Coast will advect low to mid 60s dewpoints inland across the TX Coastal Plain. The combination of increased low-level moistening and some degree of diurnal heating will bolster warm-sector buoyancy through the day and support deeper, more intense convection. Thunderstorm activity will likely become increasingly focused southward into the warm sector along a consolidated outflow/cold front and/or along a weak surface trough. Latest medium/long-range guidance depicts parallel alignment of westerly flow aloft with the southward-sagging outflow boundary/cold front, which would favor a mixed/clustered storm mode. Given deeper buoyancy profiles and 40-50 knot mid-level flow across the Coastal Plain, effective bulk shear will likely be sufficient to support organized linear segments and/or semi-discrete cells. Coverage and duration of severe convection remains uncertain due to the potential for destructive storm interactions within a predominantly clustered storm mode.
..Moore.. 11/13/2026
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Monday, November 16
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, November 16 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, November 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, November 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, November 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, November 20 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 131000 SPC AC 131000
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
The upper trough across the TX Gulf Coast is forecast to continue eastward and weaken as ridging intensifies over the central US. The strong surface response to the building ridge (1030-1035 mb) will favor cool, dry and stable offshore flow over much of the CONUS. Thunderstorms will likely be confined to the near-shore coastal waters of the Gulf through the remainder of the weekend and into early next week.
Mid to late week
Ensemble guidance eventually shows the upper ridge yielding to increasingly strong western US troughing sometime mid to late week. Model solutions vary, with AINWP guidance considerably stronger and faster than physics-based ensembles with ejecting the deep upper trough and surface low D5/Tues - D7/Thur. Regardless, it appears likely that stronger southwesterly flow aloft will move eastward from the Desert Southwest into the southern Rockies and eventually the central US, with increasing thunderstorm chances mid to late week next week. The prominent high pressure over the Midwest will likely delay substantial moisture return, casting significant uncertainty on any severe potential. Predictability remains low through much of the forecast period.
..Lyons.. 11/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, November 17
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, November 16 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, November 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, November 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, November 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, November 20 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 131000 SPC AC 131000
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
The upper trough across the TX Gulf Coast is forecast to continue eastward and weaken as ridging intensifies over the central US. The strong surface response to the building ridge (1030-1035 mb) will favor cool, dry and stable offshore flow over much of the CONUS. Thunderstorms will likely be confined to the near-shore coastal waters of the Gulf through the remainder of the weekend and into early next week.
Mid to late week
Ensemble guidance eventually shows the upper ridge yielding to increasingly strong western US troughing sometime mid to late week. Model solutions vary, with AINWP guidance considerably stronger and faster than physics-based ensembles with ejecting the deep upper trough and surface low D5/Tues - D7/Thur. Regardless, it appears likely that stronger southwesterly flow aloft will move eastward from the Desert Southwest into the southern Rockies and eventually the central US, with increasing thunderstorm chances mid to late week next week. The prominent high pressure over the Midwest will likely delay substantial moisture return, casting significant uncertainty on any severe potential. Predictability remains low through much of the forecast period.
..Lyons.. 11/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, November 18
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, November 16 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, November 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, November 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, November 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, November 20 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 131000 SPC AC 131000
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
The upper trough across the TX Gulf Coast is forecast to continue eastward and weaken as ridging intensifies over the central US. The strong surface response to the building ridge (1030-1035 mb) will favor cool, dry and stable offshore flow over much of the CONUS. Thunderstorms will likely be confined to the near-shore coastal waters of the Gulf through the remainder of the weekend and into early next week.
Mid to late week
Ensemble guidance eventually shows the upper ridge yielding to increasingly strong western US troughing sometime mid to late week. Model solutions vary, with AINWP guidance considerably stronger and faster than physics-based ensembles with ejecting the deep upper trough and surface low D5/Tues - D7/Thur. Regardless, it appears likely that stronger southwesterly flow aloft will move eastward from the Desert Southwest into the southern Rockies and eventually the central US, with increasing thunderstorm chances mid to late week next week. The prominent high pressure over the Midwest will likely delay substantial moisture return, casting significant uncertainty on any severe potential. Predictability remains low through much of the forecast period.
..Lyons.. 11/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, November 19
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, November 16 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, November 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, November 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, November 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, November 20 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 131000 SPC AC 131000
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
The upper trough across the TX Gulf Coast is forecast to continue eastward and weaken as ridging intensifies over the central US. The strong surface response to the building ridge (1030-1035 mb) will favor cool, dry and stable offshore flow over much of the CONUS. Thunderstorms will likely be confined to the near-shore coastal waters of the Gulf through the remainder of the weekend and into early next week.
Mid to late week
Ensemble guidance eventually shows the upper ridge yielding to increasingly strong western US troughing sometime mid to late week. Model solutions vary, with AINWP guidance considerably stronger and faster than physics-based ensembles with ejecting the deep upper trough and surface low D5/Tues - D7/Thur. Regardless, it appears likely that stronger southwesterly flow aloft will move eastward from the Desert Southwest into the southern Rockies and eventually the central US, with increasing thunderstorm chances mid to late week next week. The prominent high pressure over the Midwest will likely delay substantial moisture return, casting significant uncertainty on any severe potential. Predictability remains low through much of the forecast period.
..Lyons.. 11/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, November 20
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, November 16 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, November 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, November 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, November 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, November 20 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 131000 SPC AC 131000
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
The upper trough across the TX Gulf Coast is forecast to continue eastward and weaken as ridging intensifies over the central US. The strong surface response to the building ridge (1030-1035 mb) will favor cool, dry and stable offshore flow over much of the CONUS. Thunderstorms will likely be confined to the near-shore coastal waters of the Gulf through the remainder of the weekend and into early next week.
Mid to late week
Ensemble guidance eventually shows the upper ridge yielding to increasingly strong western US troughing sometime mid to late week. Model solutions vary, with AINWP guidance considerably stronger and faster than physics-based ensembles with ejecting the deep upper trough and surface low D5/Tues - D7/Thur. Regardless, it appears likely that stronger southwesterly flow aloft will move eastward from the Desert Southwest into the southern Rockies and eventually the central US, with increasing thunderstorm chances mid to late week next week. The prominent high pressure over the Midwest will likely delay substantial moisture return, casting significant uncertainty on any severe potential. Predictability remains low through much of the forecast period.
..Lyons.. 11/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, November 13
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Saturday, November 14
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Sunday, November 15
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Monday, November 16
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, November 17
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, November 18
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, November 19
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, November 20
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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