Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, May 1
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible today across parts of south-central and southeast Texas, and this evening into tonight along the central Gulf Coast.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 010548
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRL AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS…AND IN THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible today across parts of south-central and southeast Texas, and this evening into tonight along the central Gulf Coast.
South-central and Southeast Texas
At mid-levels, a shortwave trough will move eastward across northern Mexico today, as a jet streak ahead of the trough translates eastward into the western Gulf Coast states. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front will remain over south Texas extending eastward to the middle Texas Coast. Large-scale ascent ahead of the trough will support scattered thunderstorm development across the post-frontal airmass in the southern Texas Hill Country. Storms will develop and move eastward across the middle and upper Texas Coastal Plain during the morning and afternoon. Moderate instability is expected to be in place near the front today, aided by surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F. In addition, the mid-level jet will create strong deep-layer shear favorable for a few rotating storms capable of large hail and isolated severe wind gusts. This potential will be greatest along the instability gradient across the middle Texas Coast to the north of Corpus Christi. The severe threat is expected to gradually end from west to east during the late afternoon as the stronger instability shifts offshore into the Gulf.
Central Gulf Coast
A mid-level shortwave trough will move through the western Gulf Coast states this evening, as the entrance region of a mid-level jet overspreads the region. Ahead of the trough, large-scale ascent will support scattered thunderstorm development from this afternoon into tonight. Surface dewpoints in the mid 60 F in the immediate coastal areas of southeast Louisiana, far southern Mississippi and far southern Alabama will contribute to sufficient instability for isolated severe storms. A few of the stronger storms could produce strong wind gusts and hail. The severe threat could increase late this evening into the overnight, especially if a convective cold pool can organize in the coastal areas. If this conditional scenario materializes, then wind damage would become the primary threat.
..Broyles/Lyons.. 05/01/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Saturday, May 2
Outlook Summary
Strong to severe storms are possible across southern Georgia into northern/central Florida Saturday morning into early evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 010500
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA
### SUMMARY
Strong to severe storms are possible across southern Georgia into northern/central Florida Saturday morning into early evening.
FL vicinity
An upper trough over the MS Valley vicinity will pivot east across the Southeast on Saturday. Strong deep-layer west/southwesterly flow associated with this system will overspread the region. Deep-layer flow will weaken with southward extent across the FL Peninsula during the afternoon, but 850-500 mb southwesterly flow is forecast to remain robust across southern GA into northern/central FL for much of the day. At the surface, a cold front will be oriented across the NC/SC coastal plain, extending southwestward to near the FL/GA line and offshore across the north-central Gulf. Ahead of the front, a seasonally moist airmass will be in place.
Convection will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the cold front Saturday morning. Current CAMs guidance varies with regard to storm mode and intensity early in the period, with the 00z HRRR being a notable outlier showing a small but well organized bowing MCS across the eastern FL Panhandle and southwest GA. Most of the rest of the CAMs guidance trends toward thunderstorm clusters. The low-level jet will be favorable for organized convection, and an organized linear system is possible, but uncertain. Downstream from early-period convection, upper 60s to near 70 F dewpoints will aid in modest destabilization. Where stronger heating can occur MLCAPE may increase to around 1000-1500 J/kg. Deep-layer flow will remain parallel to the surface boundary, so some potential for undercutting convection by the front is possible. Nevertheless, given the strength of deep layer flow and strong vertical shear amid sufficient instability, severe storms posing a risk for damaging wind gusts is possible. If any more discrete convection can develop, isolated hail is also possible. The tornado risk is less certain given a weakening low-level jet with time, questions regarding storm mode, and overall uncertainty in low-level destabilization.
..Leitman.. 05/01/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Sunday, May 3
Outlook Summary
A few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of northern Missouri, southeast Iowa and central Illinois on Sunday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 010617
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
### SUMMARY
A few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of northern Missouri, southeast Iowa and central Illinois on Sunday.
Mid-MS Valley
Northwesterly flow aloft will persist across the region on the back side of an eastern U.S. upper trough. Cold temperatures aloft (near -20 C at 500 mb) will foster steep midlevel lapse rates and support moderate MLCAPE values around 1000-2000 J/kg. However, boundary layer moisture is expected to be limited by a prior cold front passage as modified Gulf moisture remains well offshore. Surface dewpoints are generally forecast to be in the 50s as temperatures warm into the 70s. Isolated thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon within the unstable airmass amid strong west/northwesterly deep-layer flow. Some forecast guidance depicts modest capping across the region while large-scale ascent remains nebulous. If storms can develop and be maintained, a risk for strong wind gusts and hail will be possible.
..Leitman.. 05/01/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Monday, May 4
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, May 3 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Monday, May 4 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, May 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, May 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, May 7 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300900 SPC AC 300900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
Late this coming weekend into early next week, it still appears that at least a transient blocking high may continue to evolve offshore of the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast. It remains a bit uncertain how long this will persist before becoming suppressed, and an evolving low to its southeast is forced inland across southern California into the Southwest.
Latest medium range guidance continues to indicate that it is possible that a short wave perturbation could emerge from the remnant low/troughing, in advance of another significant short wave impulse emerging from the higher latitudes before amplifying southeastward to the lee of the Rockies, through the Atlantic Seaboard by the end of the period. However, it now appears probable that modest troughing, perhaps with a continuing cyclonic circulation, will linger near and south of the Southwestern international border.
In lower levels, southerly moist return flow may commence by early next week across the southern into central Great Plains as surface troughing deepens to the lee of the Rockies. This may begin to more substantively advect northeastward toward the Ohio Valley, in advance of a southward advancing cold front associated with the digging mid-level troughing. However, there is notable spread among the model output concerning potential surface cyclogenesis, near and northeast of the Rockies.
Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development appears possible from parts of the central and southern Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley by Tuesday, if not Monday. However, inhibition associated with warm elevated mixed-layer air overspreading the southern Great Plains may become a limiting factor, as low-level moisture becomes more supportive of strong destabilization.
There remains at least some signal in the model output for potentially more widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development across the lower/middle Mississippi Valley into Ohio Valley by next Wednesday, perhaps into Thursday. However, with uncertainties remaining sizable at this extended time frame, severe probabilities still appear less than 15 percent.
..Kerr.. 04/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, May 5
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, May 3 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Monday, May 4 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, May 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, May 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, May 7 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300900 SPC AC 300900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
Late this coming weekend into early next week, it still appears that at least a transient blocking high may continue to evolve offshore of the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast. It remains a bit uncertain how long this will persist before becoming suppressed, and an evolving low to its southeast is forced inland across southern California into the Southwest.
Latest medium range guidance continues to indicate that it is possible that a short wave perturbation could emerge from the remnant low/troughing, in advance of another significant short wave impulse emerging from the higher latitudes before amplifying southeastward to the lee of the Rockies, through the Atlantic Seaboard by the end of the period. However, it now appears probable that modest troughing, perhaps with a continuing cyclonic circulation, will linger near and south of the Southwestern international border.
In lower levels, southerly moist return flow may commence by early next week across the southern into central Great Plains as surface troughing deepens to the lee of the Rockies. This may begin to more substantively advect northeastward toward the Ohio Valley, in advance of a southward advancing cold front associated with the digging mid-level troughing. However, there is notable spread among the model output concerning potential surface cyclogenesis, near and northeast of the Rockies.
Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development appears possible from parts of the central and southern Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley by Tuesday, if not Monday. However, inhibition associated with warm elevated mixed-layer air overspreading the southern Great Plains may become a limiting factor, as low-level moisture becomes more supportive of strong destabilization.
There remains at least some signal in the model output for potentially more widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development across the lower/middle Mississippi Valley into Ohio Valley by next Wednesday, perhaps into Thursday. However, with uncertainties remaining sizable at this extended time frame, severe probabilities still appear less than 15 percent.
..Kerr.. 04/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, May 6
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, May 3 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Monday, May 4 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, May 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, May 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, May 7 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300900 SPC AC 300900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
Late this coming weekend into early next week, it still appears that at least a transient blocking high may continue to evolve offshore of the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast. It remains a bit uncertain how long this will persist before becoming suppressed, and an evolving low to its southeast is forced inland across southern California into the Southwest.
Latest medium range guidance continues to indicate that it is possible that a short wave perturbation could emerge from the remnant low/troughing, in advance of another significant short wave impulse emerging from the higher latitudes before amplifying southeastward to the lee of the Rockies, through the Atlantic Seaboard by the end of the period. However, it now appears probable that modest troughing, perhaps with a continuing cyclonic circulation, will linger near and south of the Southwestern international border.
In lower levels, southerly moist return flow may commence by early next week across the southern into central Great Plains as surface troughing deepens to the lee of the Rockies. This may begin to more substantively advect northeastward toward the Ohio Valley, in advance of a southward advancing cold front associated with the digging mid-level troughing. However, there is notable spread among the model output concerning potential surface cyclogenesis, near and northeast of the Rockies.
Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development appears possible from parts of the central and southern Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley by Tuesday, if not Monday. However, inhibition associated with warm elevated mixed-layer air overspreading the southern Great Plains may become a limiting factor, as low-level moisture becomes more supportive of strong destabilization.
There remains at least some signal in the model output for potentially more widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development across the lower/middle Mississippi Valley into Ohio Valley by next Wednesday, perhaps into Thursday. However, with uncertainties remaining sizable at this extended time frame, severe probabilities still appear less than 15 percent.
..Kerr.. 04/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, May 7
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, May 3 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Monday, May 4 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, May 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, May 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, May 7 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300900 SPC AC 300900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
Late this coming weekend into early next week, it still appears that at least a transient blocking high may continue to evolve offshore of the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast. It remains a bit uncertain how long this will persist before becoming suppressed, and an evolving low to its southeast is forced inland across southern California into the Southwest.
Latest medium range guidance continues to indicate that it is possible that a short wave perturbation could emerge from the remnant low/troughing, in advance of another significant short wave impulse emerging from the higher latitudes before amplifying southeastward to the lee of the Rockies, through the Atlantic Seaboard by the end of the period. However, it now appears probable that modest troughing, perhaps with a continuing cyclonic circulation, will linger near and south of the Southwestern international border.
In lower levels, southerly moist return flow may commence by early next week across the southern into central Great Plains as surface troughing deepens to the lee of the Rockies. This may begin to more substantively advect northeastward toward the Ohio Valley, in advance of a southward advancing cold front associated with the digging mid-level troughing. However, there is notable spread among the model output concerning potential surface cyclogenesis, near and northeast of the Rockies.
Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development appears possible from parts of the central and southern Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley by Tuesday, if not Monday. However, inhibition associated with warm elevated mixed-layer air overspreading the southern Great Plains may become a limiting factor, as low-level moisture becomes more supportive of strong destabilization.
There remains at least some signal in the model output for potentially more widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development across the lower/middle Mississippi Valley into Ohio Valley by next Wednesday, perhaps into Thursday. However, with uncertainties remaining sizable at this extended time frame, severe probabilities still appear less than 15 percent.
..Kerr.. 04/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, May 1
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Saturday, May 2
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Sunday, May 3
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Monday, May 4
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, May 5
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, May 6
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, May 7
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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