Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, October 19
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms may produce isolated marginally severe hail and gusty winds this afternoon and early evening across parts of southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 191200
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026
Valid 191300Z - 201200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms may produce isolated marginally severe hail and gusty winds this afternoon and early evening across parts of southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico.
Southeast Arizona/Southwest New Mexico
Surface observations indicate that low-level moisture has slowly increased early this morning across southeast AZ, with dewpoints generally ranging in the mid to upper 50s at lower elevations. A 35-45 kt southwesterly mid-level jet associated with a weak shortwave trough will persist across the Southwest today. Modest large-scale ascent attendant to this feature coupled with terrain-driven influences should aid thunderstorm initiation across southeast AZ by 17-21Z as convective temperatures are reached with filtered diurnal heating.
Recent RAP runs suggest that the boundary layer will not become overly well mixed across this region through the afternoon, which should allow for around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE (locally stronger) to develop. This instability coupled with cool mid-level temperatures and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear appear sufficient for some updraft organization with the scattered to numerous thunderstorms that form. Isolated, marginally severe hail and gusty outflow winds may occur with the stronger cells that spread east-northeastward across southeast AZ into southwest NM through the afternoon and early evening. This activity is expected to quickly weaken by mid evening with the loss of daytime heating.
..Gleason/Kerr.. 10/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Tuesday, October 20
Outlook Summary
No severe thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 190533
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
No severe thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday.
Synopsis
An upper trough will deepen along the West Coast on Tuesday, resulting in a broad low-level mass response with a return flow of low-level moisture across the Desert Southwest into the Great Basin and central High Plains regions. Deep-layer ascent associated with this broad axis of low-level moisture will result in at least widely scattered thunderstorm development through the day across the Great Basin into the Desert Southwest and High Plains. A couple instances of strong surface wind gusts may accompany thunderstorms in the Lower Colorado River Basin given stronger flow fields aloft. At the moment though, buoyancy appears too limited to support an organized severe gust threat, so severe probabilities have been withheld this outlook. By later Tuesday night, cooler mid-level temperatures associated with the upper trough will overspread a marine boundary layer along the CA coastline, promoting thunderstorm chances here as well.
..Squitieri.. 10/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Wednesday, October 21
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe wind/hail and perhaps a brief tornado may occur over portions of Arizona into western New Mexico on Wednesday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 190652
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA INTO FAR WESTERN NEW MEXICO
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe wind/hail and perhaps a brief tornado may occur over portions of Arizona into western New Mexico on Wednesday.
Synopsis
An upper trough will continue to deepen while traversing the Interior West on Wednesday, provoking a strong low-level mass response across the Desert Southwest and Rockies into the High Plains. Adequate low-level moisture will stream northward across CA and the Interior West, beneath strong, nearly unidirectional southwesterly flow aloft. At least scattered thunderstorms are anticipated across much of the CONUS west of the Rockies. However, the richest low-level moisture and associated buoyancy will reside in the Lower Colorado River Basin, where an isolated severe threat will exist.
Lower Colorado River Basin
Across the Lower Colorado River Basin, low to mid 50s F surface dewpoints will advect northward beneath 6.5+ C/km mid-level lapse rates and a 50-80 kt 500 mb jet streak. 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE may manifest amid large and elongated hodographs. These conditions would support multicells and perhaps a few supercell structures with an attendant isolated severe wind/hail threat and perhaps a brief tornado, warranting the introduction of Category 1/Marginal Risk probabilities this outlook.
Central California Valley Region
On Wednesday afternoon, a 70+ kt southerly 500 mb jet, as well as 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates, will overspread central and southern CA as the upper trough overspreads the San Joaquin Valley. The strong, nearly unidirectional flow will yield slightly curved, but very elongated hodographs. Such conditions would typically favor the development of low-topped supercells. However, surface temperatures/dewpoints in the upper 50s/mid 40s F may limit buoyancy considerably, precluding severe probabilities this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 10/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Thursday, October 22
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, October 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, October 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, October 24 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190830 SPC AC 190830
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough will progress across the Rockies late this week and eject into the central and northern Plains states this weekend. Thereafter, a more zonal, progressive upper-air pattern will become established across the CONUS, with stronger flow aloft relegated to the northern CONUS, and multiple mid-level impulses poised to traverse this flow into early next week. At the moment, the best chance for any severe potential (albeit isolated) will be across the Desert Southwest on Day 4 (Thursday) and across the High Plains on Day 5 (Friday). In the Days 4-5 period, along the eastern portion of the upper trough, a belt of 50-60 kt mid-level flow will overspread the Desert Southwest into the southern and central High Plains, atop modest low-level moisture. Marginal instability and strong vertical wind shear should overlap across the Desert Southwest on Thursday and over the southern to central High Plains on Friday to support scattered strong thunderstorms, a couple of which may briefly reach severe limits. Given the anticipated isolated nature of the severe threat, as also suggested by ML/AI guidance, severe probabilities were not introduced this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 10/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, October 23
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, October 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, October 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, October 24 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190830 SPC AC 190830
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough will progress across the Rockies late this week and eject into the central and northern Plains states this weekend. Thereafter, a more zonal, progressive upper-air pattern will become established across the CONUS, with stronger flow aloft relegated to the northern CONUS, and multiple mid-level impulses poised to traverse this flow into early next week. At the moment, the best chance for any severe potential (albeit isolated) will be across the Desert Southwest on Day 4 (Thursday) and across the High Plains on Day 5 (Friday). In the Days 4-5 period, along the eastern portion of the upper trough, a belt of 50-60 kt mid-level flow will overspread the Desert Southwest into the southern and central High Plains, atop modest low-level moisture. Marginal instability and strong vertical wind shear should overlap across the Desert Southwest on Thursday and over the southern to central High Plains on Friday to support scattered strong thunderstorms, a couple of which may briefly reach severe limits. Given the anticipated isolated nature of the severe threat, as also suggested by ML/AI guidance, severe probabilities were not introduced this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 10/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, October 24
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, October 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, October 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, October 24 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190830 SPC AC 190830
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough will progress across the Rockies late this week and eject into the central and northern Plains states this weekend. Thereafter, a more zonal, progressive upper-air pattern will become established across the CONUS, with stronger flow aloft relegated to the northern CONUS, and multiple mid-level impulses poised to traverse this flow into early next week. At the moment, the best chance for any severe potential (albeit isolated) will be across the Desert Southwest on Day 4 (Thursday) and across the High Plains on Day 5 (Friday). In the Days 4-5 period, along the eastern portion of the upper trough, a belt of 50-60 kt mid-level flow will overspread the Desert Southwest into the southern and central High Plains, atop modest low-level moisture. Marginal instability and strong vertical wind shear should overlap across the Desert Southwest on Thursday and over the southern to central High Plains on Friday to support scattered strong thunderstorms, a couple of which may briefly reach severe limits. Given the anticipated isolated nature of the severe threat, as also suggested by ML/AI guidance, severe probabilities were not introduced this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 10/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, October 25
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, October 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, October 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, October 24 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190830 SPC AC 190830
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough will progress across the Rockies late this week and eject into the central and northern Plains states this weekend. Thereafter, a more zonal, progressive upper-air pattern will become established across the CONUS, with stronger flow aloft relegated to the northern CONUS, and multiple mid-level impulses poised to traverse this flow into early next week. At the moment, the best chance for any severe potential (albeit isolated) will be across the Desert Southwest on Day 4 (Thursday) and across the High Plains on Day 5 (Friday). In the Days 4-5 period, along the eastern portion of the upper trough, a belt of 50-60 kt mid-level flow will overspread the Desert Southwest into the southern and central High Plains, atop modest low-level moisture. Marginal instability and strong vertical wind shear should overlap across the Desert Southwest on Thursday and over the southern to central High Plains on Friday to support scattered strong thunderstorms, a couple of which may briefly reach severe limits. Given the anticipated isolated nature of the severe threat, as also suggested by ML/AI guidance, severe probabilities were not introduced this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 10/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, October 26
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, October 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, October 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, October 24 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190830 SPC AC 190830
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough will progress across the Rockies late this week and eject into the central and northern Plains states this weekend. Thereafter, a more zonal, progressive upper-air pattern will become established across the CONUS, with stronger flow aloft relegated to the northern CONUS, and multiple mid-level impulses poised to traverse this flow into early next week. At the moment, the best chance for any severe potential (albeit isolated) will be across the Desert Southwest on Day 4 (Thursday) and across the High Plains on Day 5 (Friday). In the Days 4-5 period, along the eastern portion of the upper trough, a belt of 50-60 kt mid-level flow will overspread the Desert Southwest into the southern and central High Plains, atop modest low-level moisture. Marginal instability and strong vertical wind shear should overlap across the Desert Southwest on Thursday and over the southern to central High Plains on Friday to support scattered strong thunderstorms, a couple of which may briefly reach severe limits. Given the anticipated isolated nature of the severe threat, as also suggested by ML/AI guidance, severe probabilities were not introduced this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 10/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, October 19
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Tuesday, October 20
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Wednesday, October 21
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Thursday, October 22
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, October 23
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, October 24
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, October 25
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, October 26
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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