Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, April 20
Outlook Summary
Severe storms are not expected today.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 200418
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe storms are not expected today.
Synopsis
An upper trough will exit the northeastern states today, with northwest flow aloft extending from the northern Plains to the East Coast. Upper ridging will occur over the Rockies, while a large upper trough slowly approaches the West Coast.
At the surface, high pressure will result in relatively stable conditions for much of the central and eastern CONUS, with centers over the Mid Atlantic and near the northern Gulf Coast.
In the wake of the eastern trough, winds just off the surface will maintain a zone of elevated moisture and instability over much of TX, where scattered showers and storms will be most likely. Weak instability will preclude any severe storm chances there.
To the west, cooling aloft with the approaching upper trough will support weak instability into parts of OR and WA, with isolated late day thunderstorms possible over portions of the Cascades. Small/non-severe hail cannot be ruled out, along with locally gusty winds mainly in the 00-03Z time frame.
..Jewell/Chalmers.. 04/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Tuesday, April 21
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms will be possible across the western CONUS, the south-central CONUS, and the southern Great Lakes on Tuesday. Potential for severe weather appears low.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 191936
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms will be possible across the western CONUS, the south-central CONUS, and the southern Great Lakes on Tuesday. Potential for severe weather appears low.
Synopsis
Upper ridging will be the primary feature across much of the CONUS from the eastern Great Basin into Plains on Tuesday. Moderate northwesterly flow aloft will remain across the Upper Midwest and portions of the Ohio Valley in the wake of a stronger upper trough. Along the West Coast, an upper trough is expected to slowly move ashore in central California into the western Great Basin. At the surface, continued presence of high pressure in the Southeast and off the Atlantic coast will drive moisture return into a stalled/remnant cold front in central Plains and Lower Great Lakes vicinity.
Lower Great Lakes
Modest moisture return ahead of the boundary is expected to promote isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. This may not occur until early/mid evening, however. Temperatures will be quite cold aloft (perhaps near -20 C at 500 mb), but moisture could be quite limited (potentially in the 40s F). The NAM is again the most aggressive with moisture return as compared to other guidance. Should sufficient moisture return occur, shear will be sufficient for marginally organized convection capable of strong gusts and hail. Uncertainty is high given how dry the airmass is preceding this moisture return and convection near the Gulf Coast on preceding days will potentially slow northward progress.
Central Valley California
Ahead of the upper low, southeasterly winds may develop within the Valley. While destabilization will not be overly strong, pockets of heating could lead to modest MLCAPE values by the afternoon. Shear will be a limiting factor for overall severe potential, but a stronger storm or two is possible.
Central Texas
Convection will be ongoing early Tuesday morning. Modest deep-layer shear and elevated buoyancy could promote a couple stronger storms capable of small hail. However, storms should generally become less organized with time as upper-level ridging builds in through the day.
..Wendt.. 04/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Wednesday, April 22
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, April 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, April 23 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Friday, April 24 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Saturday, April 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, April 26 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190900 SPC AC 190900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
A western trough will take hold in the days preceding this convective period. Ahead of this trough moisture will return northward through the central Plains, with 50F dewpoints reaching perhaps as far north as the Canadian border during Wednesday/Day-4. This return flow setup and western trough will set the stage for multiple days of severe weather potential.
On Wednesday/Day-4, a lobe of vorticity will eject northeast out of the western longwave trough across the central and northern Plains. As this occurs, surface cyclogenesis should take place across the far northern Plains. To the south of this surface low, a dryline should sharpen across western Nebraska and Kansas. At the same time, vertical shear should strengthen as the shortwave moves northeast across the region. The kinematic profiles will support supercells initiating along the dryline. However, concerns remain about the quality of the moisture to the east of the dryline and subsequently as to the number of potential thunderstorms that may develop. This uncertainty precluded the introduction of unconditional 15% probabilities at this time.
On Thursday/Day-5, the shortwave trough/midlevel low will deepen as it slowly moves north-northeast during the day. This will help maintain a strong surface cyclone across the northern Plains, with strong southerly winds advecting Gulf moisture northward to the east of the north-south oriented frontal boundary. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible along and east of the aforementioned frontal boundary across a large portion of the central US. Strong vertical wind shear across this frontal boundary will promote severe potential from Oklahoma northward to perhaps as far north as Minnesota. The northern extent of the severe potential will be delimited by the degree of moisture return, and have expanded the unconditional 15% probability area northward into Iowa to account for the increasing confidence in severe thunderstorm potential.
Overnight Thursday/Day-5, a surface cold front, augmented by convective outflow, should push east across the northern and central Plains and south-southeast across the southern Plains. Another round of severe thunderstorms will be possible on Friday/Day-6 across portions of northeast Texas/northern Louisiana and much of Arkansas as diurnal heating of a moist airmass results in MUCAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg beneath modest vertical shear associated persistent southwest midlevel flow.
The severe potential will likely persist into Saturday/Day-7 and Sunday/Day-8 across portions of the southern Plains and northern Gulf Coast states. Here, persistent western troughing will maintain an increasingly moist airmass along and south of the aforementioned frontal boundary. The location of this frontal boundary will likely be significantly impacted by the repeated rounds of thunderstorms in the prior days. Model guidance is in general agreement that at least modest westerly/southwesterly flow will persist across the southern Plains, with episodic perturbations traversing this flow field downstream of the broader large-scale western trough. However, significant differences remain with respect to the timing, strength, and location of any of these perturbations to attempt to highlight unconditional severe probabilities.
..Marsh.. 04/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, April 23
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, April 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, April 23 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Friday, April 24 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Saturday, April 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, April 26 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190900 SPC AC 190900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
A western trough will take hold in the days preceding this convective period. Ahead of this trough moisture will return northward through the central Plains, with 50F dewpoints reaching perhaps as far north as the Canadian border during Wednesday/Day-4. This return flow setup and western trough will set the stage for multiple days of severe weather potential.
On Wednesday/Day-4, a lobe of vorticity will eject northeast out of the western longwave trough across the central and northern Plains. As this occurs, surface cyclogenesis should take place across the far northern Plains. To the south of this surface low, a dryline should sharpen across western Nebraska and Kansas. At the same time, vertical shear should strengthen as the shortwave moves northeast across the region. The kinematic profiles will support supercells initiating along the dryline. However, concerns remain about the quality of the moisture to the east of the dryline and subsequently as to the number of potential thunderstorms that may develop. This uncertainty precluded the introduction of unconditional 15% probabilities at this time.
On Thursday/Day-5, the shortwave trough/midlevel low will deepen as it slowly moves north-northeast during the day. This will help maintain a strong surface cyclone across the northern Plains, with strong southerly winds advecting Gulf moisture northward to the east of the north-south oriented frontal boundary. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible along and east of the aforementioned frontal boundary across a large portion of the central US. Strong vertical wind shear across this frontal boundary will promote severe potential from Oklahoma northward to perhaps as far north as Minnesota. The northern extent of the severe potential will be delimited by the degree of moisture return, and have expanded the unconditional 15% probability area northward into Iowa to account for the increasing confidence in severe thunderstorm potential.
Overnight Thursday/Day-5, a surface cold front, augmented by convective outflow, should push east across the northern and central Plains and south-southeast across the southern Plains. Another round of severe thunderstorms will be possible on Friday/Day-6 across portions of northeast Texas/northern Louisiana and much of Arkansas as diurnal heating of a moist airmass results in MUCAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg beneath modest vertical shear associated persistent southwest midlevel flow.
The severe potential will likely persist into Saturday/Day-7 and Sunday/Day-8 across portions of the southern Plains and northern Gulf Coast states. Here, persistent western troughing will maintain an increasingly moist airmass along and south of the aforementioned frontal boundary. The location of this frontal boundary will likely be significantly impacted by the repeated rounds of thunderstorms in the prior days. Model guidance is in general agreement that at least modest westerly/southwesterly flow will persist across the southern Plains, with episodic perturbations traversing this flow field downstream of the broader large-scale western trough. However, significant differences remain with respect to the timing, strength, and location of any of these perturbations to attempt to highlight unconditional severe probabilities.
..Marsh.. 04/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, April 24
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, April 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, April 23 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Friday, April 24 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Saturday, April 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, April 26 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190900 SPC AC 190900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
A western trough will take hold in the days preceding this convective period. Ahead of this trough moisture will return northward through the central Plains, with 50F dewpoints reaching perhaps as far north as the Canadian border during Wednesday/Day-4. This return flow setup and western trough will set the stage for multiple days of severe weather potential.
On Wednesday/Day-4, a lobe of vorticity will eject northeast out of the western longwave trough across the central and northern Plains. As this occurs, surface cyclogenesis should take place across the far northern Plains. To the south of this surface low, a dryline should sharpen across western Nebraska and Kansas. At the same time, vertical shear should strengthen as the shortwave moves northeast across the region. The kinematic profiles will support supercells initiating along the dryline. However, concerns remain about the quality of the moisture to the east of the dryline and subsequently as to the number of potential thunderstorms that may develop. This uncertainty precluded the introduction of unconditional 15% probabilities at this time.
On Thursday/Day-5, the shortwave trough/midlevel low will deepen as it slowly moves north-northeast during the day. This will help maintain a strong surface cyclone across the northern Plains, with strong southerly winds advecting Gulf moisture northward to the east of the north-south oriented frontal boundary. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible along and east of the aforementioned frontal boundary across a large portion of the central US. Strong vertical wind shear across this frontal boundary will promote severe potential from Oklahoma northward to perhaps as far north as Minnesota. The northern extent of the severe potential will be delimited by the degree of moisture return, and have expanded the unconditional 15% probability area northward into Iowa to account for the increasing confidence in severe thunderstorm potential.
Overnight Thursday/Day-5, a surface cold front, augmented by convective outflow, should push east across the northern and central Plains and south-southeast across the southern Plains. Another round of severe thunderstorms will be possible on Friday/Day-6 across portions of northeast Texas/northern Louisiana and much of Arkansas as diurnal heating of a moist airmass results in MUCAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg beneath modest vertical shear associated persistent southwest midlevel flow.
The severe potential will likely persist into Saturday/Day-7 and Sunday/Day-8 across portions of the southern Plains and northern Gulf Coast states. Here, persistent western troughing will maintain an increasingly moist airmass along and south of the aforementioned frontal boundary. The location of this frontal boundary will likely be significantly impacted by the repeated rounds of thunderstorms in the prior days. Model guidance is in general agreement that at least modest westerly/southwesterly flow will persist across the southern Plains, with episodic perturbations traversing this flow field downstream of the broader large-scale western trough. However, significant differences remain with respect to the timing, strength, and location of any of these perturbations to attempt to highlight unconditional severe probabilities.
..Marsh.. 04/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, April 25
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, April 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, April 23 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Friday, April 24 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Saturday, April 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, April 26 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190900 SPC AC 190900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
A western trough will take hold in the days preceding this convective period. Ahead of this trough moisture will return northward through the central Plains, with 50F dewpoints reaching perhaps as far north as the Canadian border during Wednesday/Day-4. This return flow setup and western trough will set the stage for multiple days of severe weather potential.
On Wednesday/Day-4, a lobe of vorticity will eject northeast out of the western longwave trough across the central and northern Plains. As this occurs, surface cyclogenesis should take place across the far northern Plains. To the south of this surface low, a dryline should sharpen across western Nebraska and Kansas. At the same time, vertical shear should strengthen as the shortwave moves northeast across the region. The kinematic profiles will support supercells initiating along the dryline. However, concerns remain about the quality of the moisture to the east of the dryline and subsequently as to the number of potential thunderstorms that may develop. This uncertainty precluded the introduction of unconditional 15% probabilities at this time.
On Thursday/Day-5, the shortwave trough/midlevel low will deepen as it slowly moves north-northeast during the day. This will help maintain a strong surface cyclone across the northern Plains, with strong southerly winds advecting Gulf moisture northward to the east of the north-south oriented frontal boundary. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible along and east of the aforementioned frontal boundary across a large portion of the central US. Strong vertical wind shear across this frontal boundary will promote severe potential from Oklahoma northward to perhaps as far north as Minnesota. The northern extent of the severe potential will be delimited by the degree of moisture return, and have expanded the unconditional 15% probability area northward into Iowa to account for the increasing confidence in severe thunderstorm potential.
Overnight Thursday/Day-5, a surface cold front, augmented by convective outflow, should push east across the northern and central Plains and south-southeast across the southern Plains. Another round of severe thunderstorms will be possible on Friday/Day-6 across portions of northeast Texas/northern Louisiana and much of Arkansas as diurnal heating of a moist airmass results in MUCAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg beneath modest vertical shear associated persistent southwest midlevel flow.
The severe potential will likely persist into Saturday/Day-7 and Sunday/Day-8 across portions of the southern Plains and northern Gulf Coast states. Here, persistent western troughing will maintain an increasingly moist airmass along and south of the aforementioned frontal boundary. The location of this frontal boundary will likely be significantly impacted by the repeated rounds of thunderstorms in the prior days. Model guidance is in general agreement that at least modest westerly/southwesterly flow will persist across the southern Plains, with episodic perturbations traversing this flow field downstream of the broader large-scale western trough. However, significant differences remain with respect to the timing, strength, and location of any of these perturbations to attempt to highlight unconditional severe probabilities.
..Marsh.. 04/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, April 26
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, April 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, April 23 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Friday, April 24 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Saturday, April 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, April 26 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190900 SPC AC 190900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
A western trough will take hold in the days preceding this convective period. Ahead of this trough moisture will return northward through the central Plains, with 50F dewpoints reaching perhaps as far north as the Canadian border during Wednesday/Day-4. This return flow setup and western trough will set the stage for multiple days of severe weather potential.
On Wednesday/Day-4, a lobe of vorticity will eject northeast out of the western longwave trough across the central and northern Plains. As this occurs, surface cyclogenesis should take place across the far northern Plains. To the south of this surface low, a dryline should sharpen across western Nebraska and Kansas. At the same time, vertical shear should strengthen as the shortwave moves northeast across the region. The kinematic profiles will support supercells initiating along the dryline. However, concerns remain about the quality of the moisture to the east of the dryline and subsequently as to the number of potential thunderstorms that may develop. This uncertainty precluded the introduction of unconditional 15% probabilities at this time.
On Thursday/Day-5, the shortwave trough/midlevel low will deepen as it slowly moves north-northeast during the day. This will help maintain a strong surface cyclone across the northern Plains, with strong southerly winds advecting Gulf moisture northward to the east of the north-south oriented frontal boundary. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible along and east of the aforementioned frontal boundary across a large portion of the central US. Strong vertical wind shear across this frontal boundary will promote severe potential from Oklahoma northward to perhaps as far north as Minnesota. The northern extent of the severe potential will be delimited by the degree of moisture return, and have expanded the unconditional 15% probability area northward into Iowa to account for the increasing confidence in severe thunderstorm potential.
Overnight Thursday/Day-5, a surface cold front, augmented by convective outflow, should push east across the northern and central Plains and south-southeast across the southern Plains. Another round of severe thunderstorms will be possible on Friday/Day-6 across portions of northeast Texas/northern Louisiana and much of Arkansas as diurnal heating of a moist airmass results in MUCAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg beneath modest vertical shear associated persistent southwest midlevel flow.
The severe potential will likely persist into Saturday/Day-7 and Sunday/Day-8 across portions of the southern Plains and northern Gulf Coast states. Here, persistent western troughing will maintain an increasingly moist airmass along and south of the aforementioned frontal boundary. The location of this frontal boundary will likely be significantly impacted by the repeated rounds of thunderstorms in the prior days. Model guidance is in general agreement that at least modest westerly/southwesterly flow will persist across the southern Plains, with episodic perturbations traversing this flow field downstream of the broader large-scale western trough. However, significant differences remain with respect to the timing, strength, and location of any of these perturbations to attempt to highlight unconditional severe probabilities.
..Marsh.. 04/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, April 20
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, April 21
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Wednesday, April 22
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, April 23
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Friday, April 24
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Saturday, April 25
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, April 26
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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