Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, August 27
Outlook Summary
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic today. Damaging winds, severe hail, and a tornado or two may accompany these thunderstorms. Large to very large hail and severe gusts are also possible across parts of southwest South Dakota into western/central Nebraska and northwest Kansas.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 271238
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026
Valid 271300Z - 281200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST…AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic today. Damaging winds, severe hail, and a tornado or two may accompany these thunderstorms. Large to very large hail and severe gusts are also possible across parts of southwest South Dakota into western/central Nebraska and northwest Kansas.
Mid-Atlantic/Northeast
An elongated mid/upper-level trough with closed low over Hudson Bay will encompass much of the eastern CONUS today. Embedded within this large-scale troughing, a mid-level shortwave trough with modestly enhanced southwesterly winds (around 25-35 kt) will advance northeastward through the day across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. At the surface, a weak low over eastern Ontario will develop into Quebec this afternoon, with a trailing cold front advancing southeastward across the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast through the period. Stronger daytime heating is forecast with southward extent across the Mid-Atlantic ahead of the cold front, with cloud cover potentially limiting heating somewhat across the Northeast. Even so, a zone of moderate instability should develop by this afternoon across these regions, with sufficient deep-layer shear for some updraft organization. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to gradually increase in coverage and intensity by 17-20Z ahead of the surface front and a lee trough along/east of the Appalachians. A mix of multicells and supercells should pose a threat for both severe hail and damaging winds, especially from the northern Mid-Atlantic northward into NY and vicinity. A tornado or two may also occur, with modest hodograph curvature noted in various NAM/RAP forecast soundings from northern MD northeastward to western New England.
Central Plains
The central Plains will be sandwiched between upper ridging over the Southwest and upper troughing over eastern Canada today, with modest northwesterly flow aloft persisting through the period. Large-scale ascent is forecast to remain rather weak/nebulous, with some guidance suggesting a weak mid-level impulse will crest the ridge and aid convective initiation across parts of southwest SD into western/central NE this afternoon. A corridor of greater low-level moisture (generally 60s surface dewpoints) will be in place across this region. Daytime heating of this moist airmass coupled with the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates will help foster moderate to locally strong instability and erode lingering MLCIN by 19-21Z. While robust convective development and overall coverage still remains somewhat uncertain given the weak forcing, a rather favorable environment for supercells will exist. Any sustained supercells will be capable of producing large hail (some 2+ inches) as they track south-southeastward through the late afternoon into the evening. The potential for severe/damaging gusts is also uncertain, as most guidance does not show a cluster developing this evening. An isolated threat for severe hail/gusts may also exist farther west/south across the CO Front Range to Raton Mesa vicinity, although deep-layer shear should be weaker across these areas.
Northern Rockies/High Plains
A mid-level jet on the southeast periphery of upper troughing over the eastern Pacific and western Canada will translate northeastward across the northern Rockies today. Enhanced west-southwesterly flow and lift associated with this jet will likely aid isolated to scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon across parts of the northern Rockies, with this activity spreading into the adjacent High Plains through the evening. While low-level moisture will remain limited/shallow across these regions, steep low/mid-level lapse rates amid a well-mixed boundary layer coupled with moderate to strong deep-layer shear should support a threat for isolated severe gusts with the high-based convection that develops.
Great Basin
High-based thunderstorms should also develop this afternoon across portions of northeast NV into northwest UT and southeast ID. While low/mid-level winds and related thunderstorm organization will likely be somewhat weaker/limited compared to areas farther north, steep lapse rates and large DCAPE will support potential for strong to severe outflow gusts as this convection spreads northeastward into the early evening.
South-Central/Coastal Texas into Southern Louisiana
Ongoing thunderstorms across southern LA may pose a threat for gusty winds this morning before they move offshore. Additional thunderstorms may develop this afternoon from parts of south-central TX towards the upper TX Coast, with isolated severe/damaging downburst winds possible given ample moisture/instability forecast. Weak deep-layer shear should limit the overall severe threat.
..Gleason/Broyles.. 08/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Friday, August 28
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across northern Georgia into the Carolinas and Virginia and the northern/central Plains.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 270559
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across northern Georgia into the Carolinas and Virginia and the northern/central Plains.
North Georgia to the Carolinas
Moderate to potentially strong instability is forecast to develop south of a stalled cold front from the southern Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic where upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will be present. Lapse rates will be quite weak (~6 C/km), but most guidance shows temperatures warming into the low to mid 80s which should provide pockets of moderate to strong instability. Effective shear is forecast to be weak (15 to 20 knots), but only slight modifications in the effective layer calculation result in significantly greater effective shear (30 to 35 knots) given moderate to strong flow above 7km. Therefore, any storms that can take advantage of this stronger flow aloft may be longer-lived and capable of some damaging wind gusts.
Central/Northern Nebraska into central and eastern South Dakota and Vicinity
A mid-level ridge will slowly deamplify through the day on Friday across the northern Plains. As this occurs, lee troughing will strengthen through the day with a lee cyclone forecast to develop across western South Dakota by early Saturday morning. Strengthening southeasterly flow ahead of the lee trough will advect low to potentially mid 60s dewpoints into South Dakota. This will result in moderate to potentially strong instability in the region. However, most forecast soundings show the environment remaining capped for much of the day which casts some doubt on diurnal storm coverage. Some 00Z CAM guidance shows storms prior to 00Z across western portions of the Marginal Risk area, but without strong forcing, it is unclear if these storms will develop. Given the capped airmass, the primary storm focus will likely be across northeast Nebraska and eastern South Dakota, at the nose of the low-level jet where warm-air advection will strengthen in the evening. Forecast soundings show moderate to strong instability and strong shear within this zone after 00Z. Large hail may be the primary threat in the evening with the wind threat more dependent on potential upscale growth.
..Bentley.. 08/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Saturday, August 29
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible in parts of the northern Great Basin and across the northern Plains.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 270728
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible in parts of the northern Great Basin and across the northern Plains.
Northern Great Basin Vicinity
A broad range of 00Z guidance (GFS/RRFS/NAM) shows moderate instability developing across northern Utah on Saturday amid strong surface heating. Forecast soundings show an uncapped airmass by mid-afternoon when scattered thunderstorm activity is expected to begin. 45 to 50 knots of mid-level flow will support storm organization/longevity and some damaging wind threat (some 75+ mph). The ECMWF is the least unstable, with more cloud-cover across the region, which may limit the severe weather threat somewhat. Nonetheless, even this ECMWF solution would likely support some severe wind threat. Therefore, a Marginal Risk seems warranted, and if all guidance trends toward the more unstable solution, an upgrade to Slight Risk may be needed in later outlooks.
Northern Plains
Moderate to strong instability is forecast across the Northern Plains on Saturday within a moist region to the north of a surface low. Forcing will be relatively weak, but subtle height falls and perhaps a weak mid-level shortwave trough embedded within the southwesterly flow, may be sufficient for isolated to widely scattered storms Saturday afternoon/evening. Forecast soundings show long hodographs across the region which would support a supercell storm mode. A Marginal Risk has been added for this threat, but the lack of stronger forcing precludes higher probabilities at this time.
..Bentley.. 08/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Sunday, August 30
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, August 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, August 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, September 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, September 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, September 3 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270758 SPC AC 270758
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Sunday - Northern Plains
Some severe weather is possible across the northern Plains on Sunday, but details remain unclear. The primary mid-level shortwave trough and associated large-scale ascent is expected to traverse northern Montana and North Dakota. However, the greater instability is focused farther southeast across eastern South Dakota and southwest Montana. The ECMWF shows enough instability developing farther north into south-central North Dakota to support some severe weather threat. The uncertainties regarding destabilization and storm coverage preclude severe weather probabilities at this time.
D5 and Beyond
The forecast next week features multiple mid-level shortwave troughs and considerable uncertainty with the timing of these features. However, there is a larger scale trend toward a ridge building across the Plains with northwesterly flow from the Upper Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/New England. Moderate to strong instability along this corridor will support some severe weather potential next week. However, specific areas of greater severe weather potential will depend on the timing and amplitude of embedded mid-level shortwave troughs. Therefore, no probabilities can be added at this time.
..Bentley.. 08/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, August 31
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, August 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, August 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, September 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, September 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, September 3 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270758 SPC AC 270758
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Sunday - Northern Plains
Some severe weather is possible across the northern Plains on Sunday, but details remain unclear. The primary mid-level shortwave trough and associated large-scale ascent is expected to traverse northern Montana and North Dakota. However, the greater instability is focused farther southeast across eastern South Dakota and southwest Montana. The ECMWF shows enough instability developing farther north into south-central North Dakota to support some severe weather threat. The uncertainties regarding destabilization and storm coverage preclude severe weather probabilities at this time.
D5 and Beyond
The forecast next week features multiple mid-level shortwave troughs and considerable uncertainty with the timing of these features. However, there is a larger scale trend toward a ridge building across the Plains with northwesterly flow from the Upper Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/New England. Moderate to strong instability along this corridor will support some severe weather potential next week. However, specific areas of greater severe weather potential will depend on the timing and amplitude of embedded mid-level shortwave troughs. Therefore, no probabilities can be added at this time.
..Bentley.. 08/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, September 1
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, August 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, August 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, September 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, September 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, September 3 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270758 SPC AC 270758
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Sunday - Northern Plains
Some severe weather is possible across the northern Plains on Sunday, but details remain unclear. The primary mid-level shortwave trough and associated large-scale ascent is expected to traverse northern Montana and North Dakota. However, the greater instability is focused farther southeast across eastern South Dakota and southwest Montana. The ECMWF shows enough instability developing farther north into south-central North Dakota to support some severe weather threat. The uncertainties regarding destabilization and storm coverage preclude severe weather probabilities at this time.
D5 and Beyond
The forecast next week features multiple mid-level shortwave troughs and considerable uncertainty with the timing of these features. However, there is a larger scale trend toward a ridge building across the Plains with northwesterly flow from the Upper Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/New England. Moderate to strong instability along this corridor will support some severe weather potential next week. However, specific areas of greater severe weather potential will depend on the timing and amplitude of embedded mid-level shortwave troughs. Therefore, no probabilities can be added at this time.
..Bentley.. 08/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, September 2
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, August 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, August 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, September 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, September 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, September 3 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270758 SPC AC 270758
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Sunday - Northern Plains
Some severe weather is possible across the northern Plains on Sunday, but details remain unclear. The primary mid-level shortwave trough and associated large-scale ascent is expected to traverse northern Montana and North Dakota. However, the greater instability is focused farther southeast across eastern South Dakota and southwest Montana. The ECMWF shows enough instability developing farther north into south-central North Dakota to support some severe weather threat. The uncertainties regarding destabilization and storm coverage preclude severe weather probabilities at this time.
D5 and Beyond
The forecast next week features multiple mid-level shortwave troughs and considerable uncertainty with the timing of these features. However, there is a larger scale trend toward a ridge building across the Plains with northwesterly flow from the Upper Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/New England. Moderate to strong instability along this corridor will support some severe weather potential next week. However, specific areas of greater severe weather potential will depend on the timing and amplitude of embedded mid-level shortwave troughs. Therefore, no probabilities can be added at this time.
..Bentley.. 08/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, September 3
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, August 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, August 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, September 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, September 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, September 3 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270758 SPC AC 270758
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Sunday - Northern Plains
Some severe weather is possible across the northern Plains on Sunday, but details remain unclear. The primary mid-level shortwave trough and associated large-scale ascent is expected to traverse northern Montana and North Dakota. However, the greater instability is focused farther southeast across eastern South Dakota and southwest Montana. The ECMWF shows enough instability developing farther north into south-central North Dakota to support some severe weather threat. The uncertainties regarding destabilization and storm coverage preclude severe weather probabilities at this time.
D5 and Beyond
The forecast next week features multiple mid-level shortwave troughs and considerable uncertainty with the timing of these features. However, there is a larger scale trend toward a ridge building across the Plains with northwesterly flow from the Upper Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/New England. Moderate to strong instability along this corridor will support some severe weather potential next week. However, specific areas of greater severe weather potential will depend on the timing and amplitude of embedded mid-level shortwave troughs. Therefore, no probabilities can be added at this time.
..Bentley.. 08/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, August 27
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Friday, August 28
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Saturday, August 29
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Sunday, August 30
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, August 31
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, September 1
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, September 2
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, September 3
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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