Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, October 31
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorm potential will remain low through tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 311926
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025
Valid 312000Z - 011200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorm potential will remain low through tonight.
No changes have been made to the outlook. See the previous discussion below for more information.
..Dean.. 10/31/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025/
Synopsis and Discussion
With longwave upper troughing dominating east of the Rockies and the prevalence of continental surface trajectories, the large-scale pattern will remain generally unfavorable for thunderstorms over the CONUS today. Occasional lightning flashes could occur across northern New England with focused ascent near a surface low and northward-shifting front, but this potential will remain limited and further diminish this afternoon. Weak elevated convection may develop late tonight across west-central Texas as low-level warm advection increases, but forecast thermodynamic profiles suggest that charge separation is unlikely prior to 12Z Saturday.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Saturday, November 1
Outlook Summary
Strong to isolated severe storms capable of large hail will be possible on Saturday late afternoon/evening across portions of Coastal Texas.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 311705
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 PM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL TEXAS
### SUMMARY
Strong to isolated severe storms capable of large hail will be possible on Saturday late afternoon/evening across portions of Coastal Texas.
Synopsis
A positively tilted mid-level trough will amplify as it moves across the southern Plains on Saturday. A cold front will accompany this trough and race south across Texas during the day. Low-level moisture will remain mostly offshore, but at least some deeper moisture may push a few counties inland across the Texas coastal counties.
Texas Coast
Mostly weak instability is forecast to develop across coastal areas of south and southeast Texas on Saturday morning and afternoon as temperatures warm into the 70s with dewpoints potentially as high as the low 60s. A significant warm nose between 850 and 700mb will suppress convection for much of the day. However, by late afternoon/early evening, as forcing increases ahead of the approaching trough and with the southward moving cold front, expect inhibition to erode and scattered thunderstorms to develop. The greatest instability will likely remain offshore or right along the coast. Therefore, there is a relatively limited areal extent for storm maturity. Nonetheless, expect a few strong to isolated severe supercells to develop right along the coast with large hail as the primary threat.
..Bentley.. 10/31/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Sunday, November 2
Outlook Summary
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the southern Florida Peninsula on Sunday, but no severe threat is expected.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 311924
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the southern Florida Peninsula on Sunday, but no severe threat is expected.
Discussion
A dry, continental airmass will continue to dominate much of the CONUS. The only exception will be southern Florida where some northward moisture recovery is anticipated. Weak instability may result in a few thunderstorms during the day. In addition, a greater thunderstorm threat may materialize Sunday night as a cluster of storms associated with a mid-level shortwave trough across the Gulf approaches South Florida. Weak lapse rates and instability should limit overall severe weather potential with these storms.
..Bentley.. 10/31/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Monday, November 3
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, November 3 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, November 4 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, November 5 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, November 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, November 7 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 310840 SPC AC 310840
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6
West-northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place over the eastern two-thirds of the nation during the early to mid-week. Through this time, surface high pressure will remain dominant from the Great Plains eastward into the eastern U.S. Further west, a mid-level trough is forecast to move into California on Wednesday. Thunderstorms will be possible along the coast of California as the system moves inland.
Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8
The West Coast mid-level trough is forecast to move quickly eastward across the Rockies on Thursday. Ahead of the system, isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear most likely Thursday afternoon and evening across parts of the southern and central Plains. A severe threat will be possible with this activity. Ahead of the mid-level trough, a severe threat may again develop over the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley on Friday. The severe threat on Thursday and Friday is expected to remain isolated, mainly due to relatively weak instability.
..Broyles.. 10/31/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, November 4
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, November 3 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, November 4 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, November 5 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, November 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, November 7 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 310840 SPC AC 310840
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6
West-northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place over the eastern two-thirds of the nation during the early to mid-week. Through this time, surface high pressure will remain dominant from the Great Plains eastward into the eastern U.S. Further west, a mid-level trough is forecast to move into California on Wednesday. Thunderstorms will be possible along the coast of California as the system moves inland.
Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8
The West Coast mid-level trough is forecast to move quickly eastward across the Rockies on Thursday. Ahead of the system, isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear most likely Thursday afternoon and evening across parts of the southern and central Plains. A severe threat will be possible with this activity. Ahead of the mid-level trough, a severe threat may again develop over the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley on Friday. The severe threat on Thursday and Friday is expected to remain isolated, mainly due to relatively weak instability.
..Broyles.. 10/31/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, November 5
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, November 3 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, November 4 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, November 5 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, November 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, November 7 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 310840 SPC AC 310840
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6
West-northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place over the eastern two-thirds of the nation during the early to mid-week. Through this time, surface high pressure will remain dominant from the Great Plains eastward into the eastern U.S. Further west, a mid-level trough is forecast to move into California on Wednesday. Thunderstorms will be possible along the coast of California as the system moves inland.
Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8
The West Coast mid-level trough is forecast to move quickly eastward across the Rockies on Thursday. Ahead of the system, isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear most likely Thursday afternoon and evening across parts of the southern and central Plains. A severe threat will be possible with this activity. Ahead of the mid-level trough, a severe threat may again develop over the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley on Friday. The severe threat on Thursday and Friday is expected to remain isolated, mainly due to relatively weak instability.
..Broyles.. 10/31/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, November 6
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, November 3 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, November 4 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, November 5 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, November 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, November 7 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 310840 SPC AC 310840
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6
West-northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place over the eastern two-thirds of the nation during the early to mid-week. Through this time, surface high pressure will remain dominant from the Great Plains eastward into the eastern U.S. Further west, a mid-level trough is forecast to move into California on Wednesday. Thunderstorms will be possible along the coast of California as the system moves inland.
Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8
The West Coast mid-level trough is forecast to move quickly eastward across the Rockies on Thursday. Ahead of the system, isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear most likely Thursday afternoon and evening across parts of the southern and central Plains. A severe threat will be possible with this activity. Ahead of the mid-level trough, a severe threat may again develop over the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley on Friday. The severe threat on Thursday and Friday is expected to remain isolated, mainly due to relatively weak instability.
..Broyles.. 10/31/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, November 7
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, November 3 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, November 4 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, November 5 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, November 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, November 7 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 310840 SPC AC 310840
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6
West-northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place over the eastern two-thirds of the nation during the early to mid-week. Through this time, surface high pressure will remain dominant from the Great Plains eastward into the eastern U.S. Further west, a mid-level trough is forecast to move into California on Wednesday. Thunderstorms will be possible along the coast of California as the system moves inland.
Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8
The West Coast mid-level trough is forecast to move quickly eastward across the Rockies on Thursday. Ahead of the system, isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear most likely Thursday afternoon and evening across parts of the southern and central Plains. A severe threat will be possible with this activity. Ahead of the mid-level trough, a severe threat may again develop over the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley on Friday. The severe threat on Thursday and Friday is expected to remain isolated, mainly due to relatively weak instability.
..Broyles.. 10/31/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, October 31
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Saturday, November 1
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: low
- Sunday, November 2
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Monday, November 3
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, November 4
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, November 5
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, November 6
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, November 7
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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