Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Thursday, May 7

Friday, May 8

Saturday, May 9

Sunday, May 10

Monday, May 11

Tuesday, May 12

Wednesday, May 13

Thursday, May 14

Outlook for Thursday, May 7

Outlook Summary

Widely scattered severe storms capable of damaging winds and a couple tornadoes are possible today across southeast Alabama, and portions of south Georgia and north Florida, including the Panhandle. Isolated strong to severe storms are also possible in parts of the Carolinas, as well as the lower Rio Grande Valley and Deep South Texas.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 5%

wind 15%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 071249

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026

Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA…INCLUDING THE FLORDIA PANHANDLE

### SUMMARY

Widely scattered severe storms capable of damaging winds and a couple tornadoes are possible today across southeast Alabama, and portions of south Georgia and north Florida, including the Panhandle. Isolated strong to severe storms are also possible in parts of the Carolinas, as well as the lower Rio Grande Valley and Deep South Texas.

Southern AL/Southern GA/FL Panhandle into northern FL

Regional radar imagery shows showers and thunderstorms ongoing from far eastern LA northeastward into southern GA. These storms are occurring along and ahead of a cold front that extends from a surface low over northwest GA southwestward into the western Gulf. The environment preceding this front is moist, modestly buoyant, and strongly sheared (i.e. 50 to 70 kt of 0-6 km bulk shear). These conditions are supporting occasional intensification of the updrafts embedded within the predominately linear structures.

This trend is forecast to continue for at least the next few hours before the stronger low-level flow (which currently extends from the western FL Panhandle/southern AL through southern GA) gradually shifts northeastward. As such, the greatest tornado potential will exist during the first few hours of the forecast period. Otherwise, damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazard as storms progress southeast through the central/western FL Panhandle and northern FL.

Carolinas… Buoyancy is expected to be lower here than areas farther southwest, with poor lapse rates expected to limit instability to generally less than 500 j/kg. The surface low over northwest GA is forecast to shift northeastward throughout the day, with low to mid-level wind fields strengthening at the same time. Ascent near the low and associated front coupled with the modest buoyancy will result in occasionally deeper convective elements along and ahead of the cold front from late morning into afternoon. Robust deep-layer wind fields across the region will support the potential for damaging gusts with any deeper, more persistent updrafts.

Lower Rio Grande Valley/South TX

A few isolated thunderstorms have developed east of Del Rio where steep mid-level lapse rates are supporting elevated buoyancy atop a stable boundary layer (as observed on the 12Z DRT sounding). This elevated buoyancy will likely persist throughout the day, combining with strong deep-layer vertical shear (i.e. effective bulk shear from 50 to 60 kt) to support the potential for supercell structures capable of isolated large hail and locally damaging wind gusts. Additionally, there is a low-probability chance for a few storms farther south into the Lower RGV this evening, where the environment remains supportive of large hail.

..Mosier/Dean.. 05/07/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

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Outlook for Friday, May 8

Outlook Summary

A few severe storms are possible on Friday from parts of Oklahoma into Missouri. Scattered storms are also likely over much of Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind 5%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 070518

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KS…CENTRAL/EASTERN OK…NORTHWEST AR…AND SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL MO

### SUMMARY

A few severe storms are possible on Friday from parts of Oklahoma into Missouri. Scattered storms are also likely over much of Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley.

Synopsis

Northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Plains as a shortwave upper trough develops east across the Mid-MS, OH and TN Valleys through early Saturday. A surface front will extend along the TX coast northeastward through the northern Gulf. This boundary will lift northward through the period, allowing for moisture return across TX, the Lower MS Valley and parts of the Southeast. Meanwhile, a surface cold front is forecast to develop southeast across parts of the Plains and Midwest, becoming oriented from the OH Valley to southern AR and north TX by Saturday morning.

KS/OK/MO/AR

Moisture return will be limited ahead of the aforementioned cold front, with surface dewpoints generally expected to be in the 50s. Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates are noted in forecast soundings, aided by cool temperatures aloft. This will support MLCAPE to around 1000-1500 J/kg within a narrow corridor ahead of the front. Effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt will support organized updrafts. Given the cool temperatures aloft/steep midlevel lapse rates and elongated/straight forecast hodographs, isolated large hail is possible. Furthermore, where there is stronger heating, deep boundary layer mixing and steepening low-level lapse rates will be possible, and isolated strong/severe wind gusts may occur. Instability will diminish with time and eastward extent into the evening as storms move across parts of MO/AR.

TX to the Lower MS Valley

Model guidance remains somewhat uncertain with regards to severe potential across TX. Early day thunderstorms, showers, and cloudiness are possible as Gulf moisture returns northward across portions of the state. Capping and initially weak forcing and modest shear will likely preclude severe potential through much of the day. Isolated thunderstorms will likely also develop along the retreating warm front across the Lower MS Valley vicinity, but severe storms are not expected.

It is possible that by evening into the nighttime hours some severe potential could develop across portions of TX as the upper shortwave trough overspreads the region, resulting in increasing forcing within the warm advection regime. Some storms developing over the higher terrain in Mexico could approach the middle/lower Rio Grande in TX, and if they can be maintained, pose a risk for large hail. However, confidence is too low to include severe probabilities at this time.

..Leitman.. 05/07/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Saturday, May 9

Outlook Summary

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across portions of southern Kansas into northwestern and central Oklahoma.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 070633

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

### SUMMARY

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across portions of southern Kansas into northwestern and central Oklahoma.

KS/OK

A midlevel shortwave trough will migrate from the central Rockies to the Lower MS Valley on Saturday. At the surface, low pressure will develop in response to the approaching trough in the vicinity of the TX Panhandle. A dryline will extend southward from the low across west TX while a warm front extends from far southern KS into northern/central AR. Gulf moisture will spread northward across OK to far southern KS and isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop by 00z. A cold front will eventually dive southward across the central/southern Plains during the nighttime hours, but the timing of this feature is still uncertain.

The warm sector is expected to be somewhat narrow across southern KS and OK. Nevertheless, cold temperatures aloft will foster steep midlevel lapse rates and MLCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg will be possible. Boundary layer moisture will be somewhat limited, generally in the upper 50s to low 60s. Strong heating will allow for deep mixing, and forecast soundings indicate any storms that develop will likely be higher-based. Effective shear magnitudes near 40 kt will support organized convection posing a risk for hail and damaging wind gusts.

..Leitman.. 05/07/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Sunday, May 10

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, May 10	predictability too low
Day 5	Monday, May 11	predictability too low
Day 6	Tuesday, May 12	predictability too low
Day 7	Wednesday, May 13	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, May 14	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070728 SPC AC 070728

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

DISCUSSION

A progressive upper-level pattern is forecast during the Day 4-8/Sun-Thu period. Early in the period, an upper trough will move from the Plains to the eastern U.S. through Day 5/Mon. Stronger northwesterly flow will overspread the Plains during this time, while a cold front will sag southward across TX and Gulf Coast states. This will suppress boundary layer moisture across much of the CONUS, but could bring some potential for strong thunderstorms to parts of TX and the Southeast, though severe thunderstorm potential appears marginal.

By Day 6/Tue, a deepening surface low is forecast across the central Plains as a weak shortwave impulse migrating through northwesterly flow aloft glaces the region. Increasing southerly low-level flow will begin to transport Gulf moisture northward across portions of the central U.S. through Day 7/Wed, and some increase in thunderstorm potential is expected. At the same time an upper ridge will begin to emerge over the Plains, which could lead to capping. Additionally, quality of moisture return is uncertain with northward extent. Overall, severe potential appears marginal throughout the Day 4-8/Sun-Thu period.

..Leitman.. 05/07/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, May 11

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, May 10	predictability too low
Day 5	Monday, May 11	predictability too low
Day 6	Tuesday, May 12	predictability too low
Day 7	Wednesday, May 13	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, May 14	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070728 SPC AC 070728

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

DISCUSSION

A progressive upper-level pattern is forecast during the Day 4-8/Sun-Thu period. Early in the period, an upper trough will move from the Plains to the eastern U.S. through Day 5/Mon. Stronger northwesterly flow will overspread the Plains during this time, while a cold front will sag southward across TX and Gulf Coast states. This will suppress boundary layer moisture across much of the CONUS, but could bring some potential for strong thunderstorms to parts of TX and the Southeast, though severe thunderstorm potential appears marginal.

By Day 6/Tue, a deepening surface low is forecast across the central Plains as a weak shortwave impulse migrating through northwesterly flow aloft glaces the region. Increasing southerly low-level flow will begin to transport Gulf moisture northward across portions of the central U.S. through Day 7/Wed, and some increase in thunderstorm potential is expected. At the same time an upper ridge will begin to emerge over the Plains, which could lead to capping. Additionally, quality of moisture return is uncertain with northward extent. Overall, severe potential appears marginal throughout the Day 4-8/Sun-Thu period.

..Leitman.. 05/07/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Tuesday, May 12

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, May 10	predictability too low
Day 5	Monday, May 11	predictability too low
Day 6	Tuesday, May 12	predictability too low
Day 7	Wednesday, May 13	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, May 14	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070728 SPC AC 070728

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

DISCUSSION

A progressive upper-level pattern is forecast during the Day 4-8/Sun-Thu period. Early in the period, an upper trough will move from the Plains to the eastern U.S. through Day 5/Mon. Stronger northwesterly flow will overspread the Plains during this time, while a cold front will sag southward across TX and Gulf Coast states. This will suppress boundary layer moisture across much of the CONUS, but could bring some potential for strong thunderstorms to parts of TX and the Southeast, though severe thunderstorm potential appears marginal.

By Day 6/Tue, a deepening surface low is forecast across the central Plains as a weak shortwave impulse migrating through northwesterly flow aloft glaces the region. Increasing southerly low-level flow will begin to transport Gulf moisture northward across portions of the central U.S. through Day 7/Wed, and some increase in thunderstorm potential is expected. At the same time an upper ridge will begin to emerge over the Plains, which could lead to capping. Additionally, quality of moisture return is uncertain with northward extent. Overall, severe potential appears marginal throughout the Day 4-8/Sun-Thu period.

..Leitman.. 05/07/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Wednesday, May 13

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, May 10	predictability too low
Day 5	Monday, May 11	predictability too low
Day 6	Tuesday, May 12	predictability too low
Day 7	Wednesday, May 13	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, May 14	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070728 SPC AC 070728

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

DISCUSSION

A progressive upper-level pattern is forecast during the Day 4-8/Sun-Thu period. Early in the period, an upper trough will move from the Plains to the eastern U.S. through Day 5/Mon. Stronger northwesterly flow will overspread the Plains during this time, while a cold front will sag southward across TX and Gulf Coast states. This will suppress boundary layer moisture across much of the CONUS, but could bring some potential for strong thunderstorms to parts of TX and the Southeast, though severe thunderstorm potential appears marginal.

By Day 6/Tue, a deepening surface low is forecast across the central Plains as a weak shortwave impulse migrating through northwesterly flow aloft glaces the region. Increasing southerly low-level flow will begin to transport Gulf moisture northward across portions of the central U.S. through Day 7/Wed, and some increase in thunderstorm potential is expected. At the same time an upper ridge will begin to emerge over the Plains, which could lead to capping. Additionally, quality of moisture return is uncertain with northward extent. Overall, severe potential appears marginal throughout the Day 4-8/Sun-Thu period.

..Leitman.. 05/07/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Thursday, May 14

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, May 10	predictability too low
Day 5	Monday, May 11	predictability too low
Day 6	Tuesday, May 12	predictability too low
Day 7	Wednesday, May 13	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, May 14	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070728 SPC AC 070728

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

DISCUSSION

A progressive upper-level pattern is forecast during the Day 4-8/Sun-Thu period. Early in the period, an upper trough will move from the Plains to the eastern U.S. through Day 5/Mon. Stronger northwesterly flow will overspread the Plains during this time, while a cold front will sag southward across TX and Gulf Coast states. This will suppress boundary layer moisture across much of the CONUS, but could bring some potential for strong thunderstorms to parts of TX and the Southeast, though severe thunderstorm potential appears marginal.

By Day 6/Tue, a deepening surface low is forecast across the central Plains as a weak shortwave impulse migrating through northwesterly flow aloft glaces the region. Increasing southerly low-level flow will begin to transport Gulf moisture northward across portions of the central U.S. through Day 7/Wed, and some increase in thunderstorm potential is expected. At the same time an upper ridge will begin to emerge over the Plains, which could lead to capping. Additionally, quality of moisture return is uncertain with northward extent. Overall, severe potential appears marginal throughout the Day 4-8/Sun-Thu period.

..Leitman.. 05/07/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

National Risk Overview

Thursday, May 7: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Friday, May 8: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Saturday, May 9: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Sunday, May 10: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, May 11: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, May 12: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, May 13: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, May 14: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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