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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Friday, February 27

Outlook Summary

Isolated-to-scattered thunderstorms are expected over portions of the Southeast and Florida today. While a few strong storms may develop this afternoon and evening, the threat of organized severe thunderstorms appears low.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 271610

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Valid 271630Z - 281200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Isolated-to-scattered thunderstorms are expected over portions of the Southeast and Florida today. While a few strong storms may develop this afternoon and evening, the threat of organized severe thunderstorms appears low.

Southeast

A southward-advancing cold front is decelerating this morning across the FL Panhandle and southeastern GA. This front is expected to stall across the northern FL Peninsula today as a mid-level shortwave trough evident in water vapor imagery moves eastward across the Southeast. Diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass is underway ahead of the front, as low-level clouds have eroded across much of the FL Peninsula this morning. Relatively modest lapse rates should hinder the development of MLCAPE exceeding 1000 J/kg. Furthermore, low-level convergence along the front is expected to remain limited. Even so, isolated to scattered thunderstorms should eventually develop this afternoon into the evening, focused across parts of the northern/central FL Peninsula along and south of the front. While a stronger thunderstorm or two with gusty winds may occur, especially along/near the eastern FL coast, the weak instability, modest lapse rates aloft, and marginal deep-layer shear all suggest that the risk for organized severe thunderstorms should remain low today.

..Jirak.. 02/27/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

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Outlook for Saturday, February 28

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms will be possible across the Florida Peninsula, and from parts of northern California into southern Oregon on Saturday. Additional thunderstorms will be possible across the Southern Plains Saturday evening into early Sunday morning.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 270656

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Valid 281200Z - 011200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms will be possible across the Florida Peninsula, and from parts of northern California into southern Oregon on Saturday. Additional thunderstorms will be possible across the Southern Plains Saturday evening into early Sunday morning.

Florida

A mid-level trough will be located in the eastern Gulf at the start of the period. Ahead of the trough, scattered thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing over parts of the southern and central Florida Peninsula, ahead of a cold front. Surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F with MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range may support a few strong thunderstorms during the early to mid afternoon. Convective coverage is expected to gradually decrease by early evening as the trough passes through the southern Florida Peninsula.

Oklahoma/Northern Texas

Northwesterly flow at mid-levels will be in place over the southern Plains on Saturday. At the surface, a low will be present over northwest Texas, as a cold front moves southeastward across parts of Oklahoma into the Ozarks. To the south of the front, flow will be southerly from central and east Texas into southern Oklahoma. As moisture advection occurs during the afternoon and evening, surface dewpoints will increase into the lower to mid 50s F across a narrow corridor from north-central Texas into central and northeast Oklahoma. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop near the front along the moist axis during the late evening in northeast Oklahoma. As a subtle shortwave trough moves across the southern Plains overnight, a few storms may also develop further south across central and southern Oklahoma. Although hail will be possible with the stronger updrafts, the convection appears likely to remain below severe limits.

Northern California/Southern Oregon

A mid-level low and an associated trough will move eastward toward the West Coast on Saturday. At the surface, surface dewpoints across the Sacramento Valley will be in the mid 50s F. Warming surface temperatures during the day should result in MLCAPE peaking around 500 J/kg. As large-scale ascent increases ahead of the approaching trough over northern California, isolated thunderstorm development will be possible in parts of the Sacramento Valley in the afternoon. The instability combined with steepening low-level lapse rates could support a strong thunderstorm or two.

..Broyles.. 02/27/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Sunday, March 1

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday across parts of south Florida, the southern and central Plains, and in northern California.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 270753

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday across parts of south Florida, the southern and central Plains, and in northern California.

DISCUSSION

A subtle mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the Florida Peninsula on Sunday, as a diffuse cold front stalls in south-central Florida. Thunderstorms will be possible near the front in the afternoon. Further west into the southern and central Plains, thunderstorms will be possible as surface temperatures warm during the day near and to the north of a front from parts of Oklahoma northward into Kansas and southwest Missouri. Finally, isolated diurnal storms will also be possible on Sunday in parts of northern California. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. Sunday and Sunday night.

..Broyles.. 02/27/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Monday, March 2

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270959 SPC AC 270959

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

DISCUSSION

Monday/Day 4 to Tuesday/Day 5

At mid-levels, a trough is forecast to move across California on Monday as zonal flow remains in place over the central and eastern U.S. On Tuesday, the trough is forecast to move eastward across the Desert Southwest, as flow becomes southwesterly in the south-central states. A moist airmass will likely be in place on Monday and Tuesday from eastern parts of the southern Plains into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible each afternoon and evening across parts of the moist airmass. In areas that destabilize the most, a marginal severe threat may develop.

Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8

On Wednesday, the trough is forecast to move into the southern and central High Plains, as an associated mid-level jet ejects northeastward across the southern High Plains. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move into the southern Plains, as a moist airmass spreads northward from north Texas into southern and eastern Oklahoma. As surface temperatures warm during the day, thunderstorms appear most likely to form along the cold front, and further south across parts of the warm sector. Moderate deep-layer shear is evident on model forecasts which should support a severe threat during the afternoon and evening, with a potential for large hail and severe wind gusts. While confidence is high enough to add a severe threat area across the southern Plains, variance does exist concerning the timing of the shortwave trough. If the trough moves across the southern Plains faster, then the area could need to be adjusted.

On Thursday, the mid-level trough is forecast to eject northeastward into the Great Lakes region, as a large upper-level trough digs into the Desert Southwest. Southwesterly mid-level flow will likely be in place over parts of the Great Plains, with a moist and unstable airmass remaining over much of Texas and Oklahoma. As surface temperatures warm, isolated strong to severe storms will be possible in areas that destabilize the most. At this time, there is uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the threat because some solutions move a shortwave ridge northeastward across the south-central U.S.

On Friday, model forecasts suggest that a large-scale upper-level trough will move through the western U.S. Ahead of this feature, thunderstorms will continue to be possible over parts of the southern and central Plains, where a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be in place. However, a significant amount of variance exists among the model solutions, suggesting that uncertainty is substantial concerning the magnitude and spacing of any severe threat.

..Broyles.. 02/27/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, March 3

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270959 SPC AC 270959

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

DISCUSSION

Monday/Day 4 to Tuesday/Day 5

At mid-levels, a trough is forecast to move across California on Monday as zonal flow remains in place over the central and eastern U.S. On Tuesday, the trough is forecast to move eastward across the Desert Southwest, as flow becomes southwesterly in the south-central states. A moist airmass will likely be in place on Monday and Tuesday from eastern parts of the southern Plains into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible each afternoon and evening across parts of the moist airmass. In areas that destabilize the most, a marginal severe threat may develop.

Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8

On Wednesday, the trough is forecast to move into the southern and central High Plains, as an associated mid-level jet ejects northeastward across the southern High Plains. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move into the southern Plains, as a moist airmass spreads northward from north Texas into southern and eastern Oklahoma. As surface temperatures warm during the day, thunderstorms appear most likely to form along the cold front, and further south across parts of the warm sector. Moderate deep-layer shear is evident on model forecasts which should support a severe threat during the afternoon and evening, with a potential for large hail and severe wind gusts. While confidence is high enough to add a severe threat area across the southern Plains, variance does exist concerning the timing of the shortwave trough. If the trough moves across the southern Plains faster, then the area could need to be adjusted.

On Thursday, the mid-level trough is forecast to eject northeastward into the Great Lakes region, as a large upper-level trough digs into the Desert Southwest. Southwesterly mid-level flow will likely be in place over parts of the Great Plains, with a moist and unstable airmass remaining over much of Texas and Oklahoma. As surface temperatures warm, isolated strong to severe storms will be possible in areas that destabilize the most. At this time, there is uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the threat because some solutions move a shortwave ridge northeastward across the south-central U.S.

On Friday, model forecasts suggest that a large-scale upper-level trough will move through the western U.S. Ahead of this feature, thunderstorms will continue to be possible over parts of the southern and central Plains, where a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be in place. However, a significant amount of variance exists among the model solutions, suggesting that uncertainty is substantial concerning the magnitude and spacing of any severe threat.

..Broyles.. 02/27/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, March 4

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270959 SPC AC 270959

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

DISCUSSION

Monday/Day 4 to Tuesday/Day 5

At mid-levels, a trough is forecast to move across California on Monday as zonal flow remains in place over the central and eastern U.S. On Tuesday, the trough is forecast to move eastward across the Desert Southwest, as flow becomes southwesterly in the south-central states. A moist airmass will likely be in place on Monday and Tuesday from eastern parts of the southern Plains into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible each afternoon and evening across parts of the moist airmass. In areas that destabilize the most, a marginal severe threat may develop.

Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8

On Wednesday, the trough is forecast to move into the southern and central High Plains, as an associated mid-level jet ejects northeastward across the southern High Plains. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move into the southern Plains, as a moist airmass spreads northward from north Texas into southern and eastern Oklahoma. As surface temperatures warm during the day, thunderstorms appear most likely to form along the cold front, and further south across parts of the warm sector. Moderate deep-layer shear is evident on model forecasts which should support a severe threat during the afternoon and evening, with a potential for large hail and severe wind gusts. While confidence is high enough to add a severe threat area across the southern Plains, variance does exist concerning the timing of the shortwave trough. If the trough moves across the southern Plains faster, then the area could need to be adjusted.

On Thursday, the mid-level trough is forecast to eject northeastward into the Great Lakes region, as a large upper-level trough digs into the Desert Southwest. Southwesterly mid-level flow will likely be in place over parts of the Great Plains, with a moist and unstable airmass remaining over much of Texas and Oklahoma. As surface temperatures warm, isolated strong to severe storms will be possible in areas that destabilize the most. At this time, there is uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the threat because some solutions move a shortwave ridge northeastward across the south-central U.S.

On Friday, model forecasts suggest that a large-scale upper-level trough will move through the western U.S. Ahead of this feature, thunderstorms will continue to be possible over parts of the southern and central Plains, where a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be in place. However, a significant amount of variance exists among the model solutions, suggesting that uncertainty is substantial concerning the magnitude and spacing of any severe threat.

..Broyles.. 02/27/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

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Outlook for Thursday, March 5

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270959 SPC AC 270959

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

DISCUSSION

Monday/Day 4 to Tuesday/Day 5

At mid-levels, a trough is forecast to move across California on Monday as zonal flow remains in place over the central and eastern U.S. On Tuesday, the trough is forecast to move eastward across the Desert Southwest, as flow becomes southwesterly in the south-central states. A moist airmass will likely be in place on Monday and Tuesday from eastern parts of the southern Plains into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible each afternoon and evening across parts of the moist airmass. In areas that destabilize the most, a marginal severe threat may develop.

Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8

On Wednesday, the trough is forecast to move into the southern and central High Plains, as an associated mid-level jet ejects northeastward across the southern High Plains. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move into the southern Plains, as a moist airmass spreads northward from north Texas into southern and eastern Oklahoma. As surface temperatures warm during the day, thunderstorms appear most likely to form along the cold front, and further south across parts of the warm sector. Moderate deep-layer shear is evident on model forecasts which should support a severe threat during the afternoon and evening, with a potential for large hail and severe wind gusts. While confidence is high enough to add a severe threat area across the southern Plains, variance does exist concerning the timing of the shortwave trough. If the trough moves across the southern Plains faster, then the area could need to be adjusted.

On Thursday, the mid-level trough is forecast to eject northeastward into the Great Lakes region, as a large upper-level trough digs into the Desert Southwest. Southwesterly mid-level flow will likely be in place over parts of the Great Plains, with a moist and unstable airmass remaining over much of Texas and Oklahoma. As surface temperatures warm, isolated strong to severe storms will be possible in areas that destabilize the most. At this time, there is uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the threat because some solutions move a shortwave ridge northeastward across the south-central U.S.

On Friday, model forecasts suggest that a large-scale upper-level trough will move through the western U.S. Ahead of this feature, thunderstorms will continue to be possible over parts of the southern and central Plains, where a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be in place. However, a significant amount of variance exists among the model solutions, suggesting that uncertainty is substantial concerning the magnitude and spacing of any severe threat.

..Broyles.. 02/27/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

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Outlook for Friday, March 6

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270959 SPC AC 270959

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

DISCUSSION

Monday/Day 4 to Tuesday/Day 5

At mid-levels, a trough is forecast to move across California on Monday as zonal flow remains in place over the central and eastern U.S. On Tuesday, the trough is forecast to move eastward across the Desert Southwest, as flow becomes southwesterly in the south-central states. A moist airmass will likely be in place on Monday and Tuesday from eastern parts of the southern Plains into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible each afternoon and evening across parts of the moist airmass. In areas that destabilize the most, a marginal severe threat may develop.

Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8

On Wednesday, the trough is forecast to move into the southern and central High Plains, as an associated mid-level jet ejects northeastward across the southern High Plains. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move into the southern Plains, as a moist airmass spreads northward from north Texas into southern and eastern Oklahoma. As surface temperatures warm during the day, thunderstorms appear most likely to form along the cold front, and further south across parts of the warm sector. Moderate deep-layer shear is evident on model forecasts which should support a severe threat during the afternoon and evening, with a potential for large hail and severe wind gusts. While confidence is high enough to add a severe threat area across the southern Plains, variance does exist concerning the timing of the shortwave trough. If the trough moves across the southern Plains faster, then the area could need to be adjusted.

On Thursday, the mid-level trough is forecast to eject northeastward into the Great Lakes region, as a large upper-level trough digs into the Desert Southwest. Southwesterly mid-level flow will likely be in place over parts of the Great Plains, with a moist and unstable airmass remaining over much of Texas and Oklahoma. As surface temperatures warm, isolated strong to severe storms will be possible in areas that destabilize the most. At this time, there is uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the threat because some solutions move a shortwave ridge northeastward across the south-central U.S.

On Friday, model forecasts suggest that a large-scale upper-level trough will move through the western U.S. Ahead of this feature, thunderstorms will continue to be possible over parts of the southern and central Plains, where a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be in place. However, a significant amount of variance exists among the model solutions, suggesting that uncertainty is substantial concerning the magnitude and spacing of any severe threat.

..Broyles.. 02/27/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

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National Risk Overview

Friday, February 27

TORNADO: low

HAIL: low

WIND: low

Saturday, February 28

TORNADO: low

HAIL: low

WIND: low

Sunday, March 1

ANY SEVERE: low

Monday, March 2

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Tuesday, March 3

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Wednesday, March 4

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Thursday, March 5

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, March 6

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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