Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, December 14
Outlook Summary
A few storms are possible across South Florida and the Florida Keys, as well as the western Gulf Coast today.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 140518
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
A few storms are possible across South Florida and the Florida Keys, as well as the western Gulf Coast today.
Discussion
Strong upper trough over the Great Lakes/Midwest region will advance off the Middle Atlantic Coast by 15/06z as the primary midlevel speed max translate well downstream. Dominant surface anticyclone will settle into the mid MS/OH Valley region by late afternoon which will effectively drive the cold front deep into Mexico and across the southern FL Peninsula. Early in the period, isolated thunderstorms may be noted along the trailing cold front across the northwestern Gulf Coast region. Some risk for a few flashes of lighting are also possible with weak convection across the southern FL Peninsula before flow veers and stronger convergence shifts offshore.
..Darrow/Wendt.. 12/14/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Monday, December 15
Outlook Summary
A few thunderstorms are possible in western Oregon and Washington on Monday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 140642
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
A few thunderstorms are possible in western Oregon and Washington on Monday.
Discussion
A strong area of high pressure will dominate the eastern CONUS on Monday with rich low-level moisture pushed well south into the Gulf. Therefore, no thunderstorms are expected for most of the CONUS on Monday. The only exception will be western Oregon/Washington. A strong surface low will move into British Columbia, with some modest northward moisture push ahead of a cold front. This low-level moisture advection, combined with cooling temperatures aloft with the associated mid-level trough, should result in weak instability on Monday. A few lightning flashes will be possible.
..Bentley.. 12/14/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Tuesday, December 16
Outlook Summary
A few thunderstorms are possible in the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 140828
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
A few thunderstorms are possible in the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Discussion
As high pressure moves from the Southeast into the Atlantic, and weak lee troughing develops across the High Plains, southerly return flow returns across the Plains on Tuesday. Some showers may develop within weak isentropic ascent across east Texas on Tuesday night, but most guidance shows minimal instability until after 12Z Wednesday. Therefore, thunderstorm activity is not expected.
Thunderstorms are possible in western Washington and far northwest Oregon on Tuesday and Tuesday night as a strong mid-level trough approaches the coast. Weak instability is expected during the afternoon, but most forecast soundings suggest the equilibrium level will be too low for charge separation which may keep any lightning potential isolated. However, by late Tuesday night/early Wednesday, as cold air aloft overspreads the region, sufficiently deep instability is expected for lightning across western Washington and perhaps into northwest Oregon. During this time, more frequent lightning may be possible with a line of convection along the surface front.
..Bentley.. 12/14/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Wednesday, December 17
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, December 16 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, December 17 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, December 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, December 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, December 20 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130846 SPC AC 130846
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
Moisture return will begin on Tuesday/D4 across Texas with some weak instability and thunderstorm potential arriving by Wednesday/D5. Significant differences in the upper-level pattern begin on Thursday/D6 and beyond which will significantly impact thunderstorm and severe weather potential.
The ECMWF and AIFS have a sharper mid-level trough farther south on Thursday/D6. This will result in a stronger cold front and farther north moisture return ahead of the front. In addition, some weak instability may develop beneath the stronger mid-level jet. This may create an environment favorable for a few stronger storms from the Lower Ohio Valley to the Mid-Mississippi Valley. This stronger scenario would likely push a strong cold front deep into the Gulf on Friday and limit thunderstorm potential into the weekend.
A less amplified solution (as shown by the GFS and AIGFS) would not support much of any strong storm threat on Thursday/D6. However, it would keep low to mid 60s dewpoints across Texas and the Lower MS Valley on Friday and into the weekend. This may result in weak to potentially moderate instability across portions of the southern Plains and possibly into the Mid-Mississippi Valley through the weekend. Despite this lingering instability, a mostly zonal mid-level pattern would not support a significant severe weather threat.
Overall, severe weather potential remains somewhat low for much of the period. Some low-end severe weather threat may exist from Thursday/D6 and beyond as low-level moisture increases, but significant uncertainties in the evolution of the upper-level pattern make any forecast for time or location of any potential low-end threat difficult.
..Bentley.. 12/13/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, December 18
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, December 16 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, December 17 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, December 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, December 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, December 20 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130846 SPC AC 130846
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
Moisture return will begin on Tuesday/D4 across Texas with some weak instability and thunderstorm potential arriving by Wednesday/D5. Significant differences in the upper-level pattern begin on Thursday/D6 and beyond which will significantly impact thunderstorm and severe weather potential.
The ECMWF and AIFS have a sharper mid-level trough farther south on Thursday/D6. This will result in a stronger cold front and farther north moisture return ahead of the front. In addition, some weak instability may develop beneath the stronger mid-level jet. This may create an environment favorable for a few stronger storms from the Lower Ohio Valley to the Mid-Mississippi Valley. This stronger scenario would likely push a strong cold front deep into the Gulf on Friday and limit thunderstorm potential into the weekend.
A less amplified solution (as shown by the GFS and AIGFS) would not support much of any strong storm threat on Thursday/D6. However, it would keep low to mid 60s dewpoints across Texas and the Lower MS Valley on Friday and into the weekend. This may result in weak to potentially moderate instability across portions of the southern Plains and possibly into the Mid-Mississippi Valley through the weekend. Despite this lingering instability, a mostly zonal mid-level pattern would not support a significant severe weather threat.
Overall, severe weather potential remains somewhat low for much of the period. Some low-end severe weather threat may exist from Thursday/D6 and beyond as low-level moisture increases, but significant uncertainties in the evolution of the upper-level pattern make any forecast for time or location of any potential low-end threat difficult.
..Bentley.. 12/13/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, December 19
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, December 16 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, December 17 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, December 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, December 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, December 20 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130846 SPC AC 130846
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
Moisture return will begin on Tuesday/D4 across Texas with some weak instability and thunderstorm potential arriving by Wednesday/D5. Significant differences in the upper-level pattern begin on Thursday/D6 and beyond which will significantly impact thunderstorm and severe weather potential.
The ECMWF and AIFS have a sharper mid-level trough farther south on Thursday/D6. This will result in a stronger cold front and farther north moisture return ahead of the front. In addition, some weak instability may develop beneath the stronger mid-level jet. This may create an environment favorable for a few stronger storms from the Lower Ohio Valley to the Mid-Mississippi Valley. This stronger scenario would likely push a strong cold front deep into the Gulf on Friday and limit thunderstorm potential into the weekend.
A less amplified solution (as shown by the GFS and AIGFS) would not support much of any strong storm threat on Thursday/D6. However, it would keep low to mid 60s dewpoints across Texas and the Lower MS Valley on Friday and into the weekend. This may result in weak to potentially moderate instability across portions of the southern Plains and possibly into the Mid-Mississippi Valley through the weekend. Despite this lingering instability, a mostly zonal mid-level pattern would not support a significant severe weather threat.
Overall, severe weather potential remains somewhat low for much of the period. Some low-end severe weather threat may exist from Thursday/D6 and beyond as low-level moisture increases, but significant uncertainties in the evolution of the upper-level pattern make any forecast for time or location of any potential low-end threat difficult.
..Bentley.. 12/13/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, December 20
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, December 16 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, December 17 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, December 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, December 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, December 20 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130846 SPC AC 130846
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
Moisture return will begin on Tuesday/D4 across Texas with some weak instability and thunderstorm potential arriving by Wednesday/D5. Significant differences in the upper-level pattern begin on Thursday/D6 and beyond which will significantly impact thunderstorm and severe weather potential.
The ECMWF and AIFS have a sharper mid-level trough farther south on Thursday/D6. This will result in a stronger cold front and farther north moisture return ahead of the front. In addition, some weak instability may develop beneath the stronger mid-level jet. This may create an environment favorable for a few stronger storms from the Lower Ohio Valley to the Mid-Mississippi Valley. This stronger scenario would likely push a strong cold front deep into the Gulf on Friday and limit thunderstorm potential into the weekend.
A less amplified solution (as shown by the GFS and AIGFS) would not support much of any strong storm threat on Thursday/D6. However, it would keep low to mid 60s dewpoints across Texas and the Lower MS Valley on Friday and into the weekend. This may result in weak to potentially moderate instability across portions of the southern Plains and possibly into the Mid-Mississippi Valley through the weekend. Despite this lingering instability, a mostly zonal mid-level pattern would not support a significant severe weather threat.
Overall, severe weather potential remains somewhat low for much of the period. Some low-end severe weather threat may exist from Thursday/D6 and beyond as low-level moisture increases, but significant uncertainties in the evolution of the upper-level pattern make any forecast for time or location of any potential low-end threat difficult.
..Bentley.. 12/13/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, December 14
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Monday, December 15
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, December 16
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Wednesday, December 17
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, December 18
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, December 19
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, December 20
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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