Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, October 26
Outlook Summary
While a strong thunderstorm or two may occur this afternoon across far west Texas into southeast New Mexico, organized severe thunderstorm potential should remain fairly low.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 261954
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026
Valid 262000Z - 271200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
While a strong thunderstorm or two may occur this afternoon across far west Texas into southeast New Mexico, organized severe thunderstorm potential should remain fairly low.
20z Update
Isolated thunderstorm development is ongoing along the Sacramento Mountains in southeastern New Mexico and the Davis Mountains in West Texas. Modestly cool temperatures aloft overlying moist low-levels and surface temperatures ranging from the mid-60s to low-70s F are supporting around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. While this may allow for the development of a more robust updraft or two, stronger mid/upper level flow has shifted eastward (per regional VWPs and 18z observed soundings from ABQ/EPZ/AMA) in conjunction with the primary mid-level shortwave trough now noted over the Texas Panhandle, which is limiting effective shear to generally 30 kts or less across the region. Thus, the severe threat continues to appear too limited/isolated to warrant the inclusion of severe probabilities with this outlook update. See the discussion below for additional details.
..Chalmers.. 10/26/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026/
Far West Texas/Southeast New Mexico
Widespread cloudiness remains over much of the southern High Plains as of late morning, with the primary mid-level shortwave trough over the central Rockies expected to move northeastward across the central/northern Plains through tonight. Another weak, low-amplitude shortwave trough will continue to advance northeastward over the southern High Plains this afternoon. This feature should aid isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across this region in the 20-22Z time frame. Modest heating of moist low levels coupled with cool temperatures aloft should support around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE, with the greatest instability forecast across far west TX/southeast NM where some clearing has occurred. However, mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear should both remain fairly modest (generally 20-25 kt or less). While a stronger thunderstorm or two may develop this afternoon, the overall severe hail/wind threat still appears too limited/isolated to justify including low severe probabilities with this update.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Tuesday, October 27
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 261711
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.
Synopsis
Broad upper troughing will encompass the synoptic-scale pattern over most of the CONUS on Tuesday, with multiple embedded impulses expected to traverse the central and northern U.S. through the period. Surface high pressure and associated subsidence should limit thunderstorm development over most of the Interior West and eastern U.S. However, surface troughing and modest low-level moisture return across the Great Plains may encourage isolated thunderstorm development within a warm-air advection regime. Given the lack of stronger vertical wind shear across the Plains, the chances of any thunderstorms becoming severe currently appears low.
..Squitieri.. 10/26/2026
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Wednesday, October 28
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Wednesday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 261917
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Wednesday.
Synopsis
A broad, low-amplitude upper troughing regime will overspread the northern CONUS on Wednesday. Within this flow, at least one notable embedded impulse will traverse the northern Plains, resulting in surface troughing over the Upper MS Valley, where modest low-level moisture advection should occur. Enough upper support associated with the passing of the aforementioned mid-level impulse should encourage at least elevated thunderstorm development over the Upper MS Valley, though the prospects of severe thunderstorms are far more conditional.
Upper MS Valley
The approach of the mid-level impulse will result in modest low-level moisture return over the Upper MS Valley, with surface dewpoints potentially exceeding 60 F as far north as southern MN. 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreading this low-level moisture will yield MLCAPE potentially reaching 1000-1500 J/kg in spots. Furthermore, a 30-40 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet is expected to develop by late afternoon, beneath 30-50 kt 500 mb west-southwesterly flow. Effective bulk shear up to 50 kts may result, along with enlarged and curved low-level hodographs (per RAP and RRFS forecast soundings). Such CAPE/shear profiles ahead of a mid-level impulse and surface trough could conditionally yield supercells with severe potential. In actuality though, modest MLCINH may overspread the warm sector, amid neutral height rises/falls, which may hinder severe potential, though elevated convection is still possible later Wednesday night. On balance, the initiation of robust, surface-based convection appears too limited for the introduction of severe probabilities.
..Squitieri.. 10/26/2026
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Thursday, October 29
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, October 30 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, November 1 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, November 2 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260750 SPC AC 260750
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026
Valid 291200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
A low-amplitude and weak deep-layer flow regime will be in place across much of the CONUS on Day 4/Thursday. By Friday, a weak midlevel shortwave trough will eject across the southern Plains to the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. Modest boundary layer moisture will be in place across the southern Plains, resulting in weak destabilization. The ejecting midlevel shortwave trough should support widespread showers and thunderstorms across portions of TX/OK into the Mid/Lower MO Valley vicinity, though severe potential appears low.
Strengthening southwesterly flow will develop over the Plains as an upper trough deepens in the West and an upper ridge amplifies across the MS Valley during the Day 6-7/Saturday-Sunday period. This will bring continued rain chances to portions of central CONUS, but severe potential should remain low due to a modest thermodynamic environment. As this western upper trough progresses eastward into early next week, a cold front will shift east/southeast across the Plains toward the MS Valley, along with thunderstorm chances. Some severe potential could accompany this activity depending on the evolution of the upper trough and development of any stronger surface cyclone. However, predictability is low via large spread among forecast guidance on Day 8/Monday, precluding severe delineation at this time.
..Leitman.. 10/26/2026
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Outlook for Friday, October 30
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, October 30 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, November 1 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, November 2 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260750 SPC AC 260750
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026
Valid 291200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
A low-amplitude and weak deep-layer flow regime will be in place across much of the CONUS on Day 4/Thursday. By Friday, a weak midlevel shortwave trough will eject across the southern Plains to the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. Modest boundary layer moisture will be in place across the southern Plains, resulting in weak destabilization. The ejecting midlevel shortwave trough should support widespread showers and thunderstorms across portions of TX/OK into the Mid/Lower MO Valley vicinity, though severe potential appears low.
Strengthening southwesterly flow will develop over the Plains as an upper trough deepens in the West and an upper ridge amplifies across the MS Valley during the Day 6-7/Saturday-Sunday period. This will bring continued rain chances to portions of central CONUS, but severe potential should remain low due to a modest thermodynamic environment. As this western upper trough progresses eastward into early next week, a cold front will shift east/southeast across the Plains toward the MS Valley, along with thunderstorm chances. Some severe potential could accompany this activity depending on the evolution of the upper trough and development of any stronger surface cyclone. However, predictability is low via large spread among forecast guidance on Day 8/Monday, precluding severe delineation at this time.
..Leitman.. 10/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, October 31
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, October 30 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, November 1 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, November 2 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260750 SPC AC 260750
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026
Valid 291200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
A low-amplitude and weak deep-layer flow regime will be in place across much of the CONUS on Day 4/Thursday. By Friday, a weak midlevel shortwave trough will eject across the southern Plains to the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. Modest boundary layer moisture will be in place across the southern Plains, resulting in weak destabilization. The ejecting midlevel shortwave trough should support widespread showers and thunderstorms across portions of TX/OK into the Mid/Lower MO Valley vicinity, though severe potential appears low.
Strengthening southwesterly flow will develop over the Plains as an upper trough deepens in the West and an upper ridge amplifies across the MS Valley during the Day 6-7/Saturday-Sunday period. This will bring continued rain chances to portions of central CONUS, but severe potential should remain low due to a modest thermodynamic environment. As this western upper trough progresses eastward into early next week, a cold front will shift east/southeast across the Plains toward the MS Valley, along with thunderstorm chances. Some severe potential could accompany this activity depending on the evolution of the upper trough and development of any stronger surface cyclone. However, predictability is low via large spread among forecast guidance on Day 8/Monday, precluding severe delineation at this time.
..Leitman.. 10/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, November 1
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, October 30 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, November 1 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, November 2 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260750 SPC AC 260750
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026
Valid 291200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
A low-amplitude and weak deep-layer flow regime will be in place across much of the CONUS on Day 4/Thursday. By Friday, a weak midlevel shortwave trough will eject across the southern Plains to the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. Modest boundary layer moisture will be in place across the southern Plains, resulting in weak destabilization. The ejecting midlevel shortwave trough should support widespread showers and thunderstorms across portions of TX/OK into the Mid/Lower MO Valley vicinity, though severe potential appears low.
Strengthening southwesterly flow will develop over the Plains as an upper trough deepens in the West and an upper ridge amplifies across the MS Valley during the Day 6-7/Saturday-Sunday period. This will bring continued rain chances to portions of central CONUS, but severe potential should remain low due to a modest thermodynamic environment. As this western upper trough progresses eastward into early next week, a cold front will shift east/southeast across the Plains toward the MS Valley, along with thunderstorm chances. Some severe potential could accompany this activity depending on the evolution of the upper trough and development of any stronger surface cyclone. However, predictability is low via large spread among forecast guidance on Day 8/Monday, precluding severe delineation at this time.
..Leitman.. 10/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, November 2
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, October 30 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, November 1 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, November 2 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260750 SPC AC 260750
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026
Valid 291200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
A low-amplitude and weak deep-layer flow regime will be in place across much of the CONUS on Day 4/Thursday. By Friday, a weak midlevel shortwave trough will eject across the southern Plains to the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. Modest boundary layer moisture will be in place across the southern Plains, resulting in weak destabilization. The ejecting midlevel shortwave trough should support widespread showers and thunderstorms across portions of TX/OK into the Mid/Lower MO Valley vicinity, though severe potential appears low.
Strengthening southwesterly flow will develop over the Plains as an upper trough deepens in the West and an upper ridge amplifies across the MS Valley during the Day 6-7/Saturday-Sunday period. This will bring continued rain chances to portions of central CONUS, but severe potential should remain low due to a modest thermodynamic environment. As this western upper trough progresses eastward into early next week, a cold front will shift east/southeast across the Plains toward the MS Valley, along with thunderstorm chances. Some severe potential could accompany this activity depending on the evolution of the upper trough and development of any stronger surface cyclone. However, predictability is low via large spread among forecast guidance on Day 8/Monday, precluding severe delineation at this time.
..Leitman.. 10/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, October 26
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, October 27
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Wednesday, October 28
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Thursday, October 29
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, October 30
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, October 31
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, November 1
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, November 2
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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