Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Friday, July 10

Outlook Summary

Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered severe/damaging winds and occasional hail will be possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the southern/central High Plains to the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 101232

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE OZARKS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered severe/damaging winds and occasional hail will be possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the southern/central High Plains to the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley.

Southern/Central High Plains

Mid-level heights should slowly rise today as an upper ridge builds over the western CONUS. Still, high-based thunderstorms are forecast to form across the higher terrain of the southern/central High Plains this afternoon in a weak low-level upslope regime. The airmass farther east into western KS may tend to remain capped, but sufficient instability should exist to support surface-based thunderstorms with an associated threat for scattered severe/damaging winds from southeast CO into northeast NM and parts of the OK/TX Panhandles. This should especially be the case where strong daytime heating steepens low-level lapse rates through deep mixing of the boundary layer. Have adjusted the Slight Risk westward a bit across the southern/central High Plains with this update, in line with recent model guidance showing the more favored corridor for severe gusts this afternoon/evening. Isolated hail may also occur with the stronger cores given moderate deep-layer shear, but the tendency for clustering/quick upscale growth suggests that severe winds should be the primary threat.

Ozarks to the Mid Mississippi Valley

A well-defined MCV remains clearly evident on regional radar and satellite imagery this morning along the NE/KS border. This MCV will likely develop east-northeastward into southern IA/northern MO by this afternoon. A small cluster ongoing across central MO may continue to pose a threat for severe/damaging winds in the short term. (See Mesoscale Discussion 1572 for more details.) Otherwise, a convectively reinforced front to the MCV's south should serve as a focus for renewed thunderstorm development later today as the seasonably moist airmass across the Ozarks into the mid MS Valley gradually destabilizes. Moderate to locally strong instability coupled with modestly enhanced mid-level westerly flow and sufficient deep-layer shear should promote organized severe convection, including the potential for supercells. Both large hail and severe/damaging winds may occur with this initially discrete activity, before a tendency for clustering results in a greater risk for damaging winds with eastward extent into the Ozarks/mid MS Valley through this evening. Some adjustments have been made to the Slight Risk across these regions based on latest guidance and observational trends.

Tennessee Valley/Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic/Ohio Valley

An MCV which developed from earlier convection across the mid MS Valley/Mid-South has slowly moved eastward across the lower OH Valley early this morning, with a trailing flank of thunderstorms over the Mid-South/TN Valley being aided by a west-southwesterly low-level jet. This feature is forecast to track generally eastward through the day, and may aid additional convective development later today across parts of the southern Appalachians into the Carolinas. While deep-layer shear will remain modest, moderate instability developing over lower elevation locations should support some risk for damaging winds with multicell clusters that spread eastward this afternoon/evening. A somewhat separate area of thunderstorm development is also forecast farther north across parts of the Mid-Atlantic/OH Valley where multiple weak mid-level perturbations should develop eastward in generally zonal flow aloft. While mid-level winds and related deep-layer shear will be slightly stronger across this region compared to areas farther south, instability should be weaker. Regardless, occasional strong/damaging winds may occur with any thunderstorm clusters that can develop along/south of a front this afternoon across the Mid-Atlantic/OH Valley.

Western Florida Peninsula

Mid-level ridging extending from the western Atlantic over the FL Peninsula is forecast to move little today, with weak winds aloft forecast. Most guidance continues to suggest that thunderstorms will develop this afternoon along the Gulf Coast sea breeze across parts of the western FL Peninsula in a moderately to strongly unstable environment. Rich low-level moisture characterized by total PWAT values around 2 inches coupled with steepened low-level lapse rates due to diurnal heating may support isolated strong to severe downdraft winds with the more robust cores that develop this afternoon.

Northern Plains/Upper Midwest

Upper ridging will become more prominent today over much of the Southwest/Great Basin northeastward into the northern Plains and central Canada. Even so, isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop this afternoon along/near a weak front from parts of eastern SD and vicinity into western MN. Mid-level north-northwesterly flow should remain weak to modest across this region, which will limit deep-layer shear and overall updraft organization. Still, a signal for isolated gusty winds/hail with loosely organized clusters remains apparent, if convection can form.

..Gleason/Thornton.. 07/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

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Outlook for Saturday, July 11

Outlook Summary

Severe storms capable of damaging winds will be possible from the Ozark Plateau east into the Tennessee Valley. Surrounding this area, strong to severe storms capable of sporadic occurrences of damaging wind will be possible from the southern High Plains east toward to the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas Saturday afternoon and evening. Isolated severe storms are also possible in southern Arizona.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 100558

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Severe storms capable of damaging winds will be possible from the Ozark Plateau east into the Tennessee Valley. Surrounding this area, strong to severe storms capable of sporadic occurrences of damaging wind will be possible from the southern High Plains east toward to the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas Saturday afternoon and evening. Isolated severe storms are also possible in southern Arizona.

Synopsis

A strong midlevel ridge is expected to continue to build northward across the West on Saturday. Downstream of this ridge, a convectively augmented vorticity maximum is expected to be moving east-southeast across the Mid-Mississippi Valley and into the Tennessee Valley. Farther east, a mid-level short-wave trough will be moving across New England and out over the Atlantic Ocean.

At the surface, a weakening cold front will stretch from far southern New England west into the central US at the start of the period. This front will slowly move south during the day, across the Mid Atlantic and into the Tennessee Valley and Southern Plains. As the aforementioned convectively augmented vorticity maximum across the central US interacts with the residual surface front, weak cyclogenesis may occur across the Mid-Mississippi Valley.

### Ozark Plateau into the Tennessee Valley

By afternoon, temperatures are expected to warm into the mid-90Fs with dewpoints ranging from the mid 60Fs into the low 70Fs. This should yield an unstable environment, with MUCAPE values between 1500-3000 J/kg. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the surface boundary during the afternoon. Deep layer shear is generally expected to be on the order of 20-25 knots across the area, which should support multicell clusters growing upscale into southward moving bowing segments capable of producing damaging winds. Given precipitable water values around 2 inches and mean sub-cloud layer relative humidity around 40-50 percent, there is some potential for a couple of significant wind gusts associated with strong cold pool generation.

### Central and Southern Plains

Similar to areas farther east, temperatures will warm into the mid-to-upper 90Fs with dewpoints in the mid-60Fs to low-70Fs yielding MUCAPE values in the 1500-3000 J/kg range. Thunderstorms should develop during the late afternoon along the surface boundary. High precipitable water values (generally around 1.75 to 2 inches), DCAPE values between 1000-1500 J/kg, and sub-cloud layer mean relative humidity between 30-40 percent will support the potential for strong, damaging outflow winds – some potentially significant. A few occurrences of large hail will also be possible given the degree of instability and modest mid-level lapse rates.

Confidence in the location of where the surface boundary will initiate is lower than areas farther east, which yields lower confidence in adding higher wind probabilities. A Level 2/Slight Risk may be needed in later outlooks if confidence in the number and location of storms increases.

### Mid-Atlantic into northern Florida

Convergence along the southward moving front and the preceding lee trough should allow for scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Although vertical shear is expected to remain generally less than 25 knots, a moderately unstable environment coupled with high precipitable water values (around 2 inches) should support strong to potentially damaging downbursts.

### Southern Arizona

East/northeast mid-level flow is forecast to strengthen slightly on Saturday to the south of the upper high, resulting in a belt of deep-layer shear on the order of 30 knots. A moist and unstable airmass across southern Arizona will support scattered thunderstorm development. As these storms move west, the strengthening flow/shear will support a few strong to briefly severe storms capable of locally damaging wind gusts.

..Marsh.. 07/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Sunday, July 12

Outlook Summary

Scattered strong-to-severe thunderstorms capable of producing wind damage will be possible across much of the Southeast on Sunday. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of Arizona late Sunday into Sunday night.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 100729

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND PORTIONS OF ARIZONA

### SUMMARY

Scattered strong-to-severe thunderstorms capable of producing wind damage will be possible across much of the Southeast on Sunday. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of Arizona late Sunday into Sunday night.

Synopsis

The western ridge will continue to build northward on Sunday, with the highest 500-mb heights (nearing 600 dam) becoming centered over the Dakotas. To the south and east of this substantial ridge, ensemble guidance has a highly-positively tilted trough, with perhaps an embedded closed low, across the Tennessee and Lower Mississippi Valleys.

At the surface, a weak boundary will stretch from west-to-east from the Southern Plains into the Southeast. The exact location of this boundary will be highly influenced by repeated rounds of convection the prior two days.

### Southeast

A very moist airmass will remain in place across the region with surface dewpoint temperatures in the 60Fs and 70Fs and precipitable water values around 2 inches likely to the south of the surface boundary. As diurnal heating occurs, scattered thunderstorms should once again develop along the residual surface boundary. Despite the proximity of a closed low/positively tilted trough, vertical wind shear will be generally less than 20 knots. The result will be scattered single cell and clusters of multicell thunderstorms capable of producing strong to perhaps damaging downbursts.

### Arizona

Modest easterly mid-level flow will persist across Arizona on Sunday as the region remains south of the closed mid-level high over the northern US. At the surface, southerly to westerly winds will combine with this mid-level flow to support around 30 knots of deep-layer shear. Model guidance shows a seasonably moist airmass in place across much of southern and western Arizona, with surface dewpoints rising into the upper-50Fs to mid-60Fs. The warm, moist environment in place will support afternoon thunderstorm development across the favored higher terrain of the Mogollon Rim. The deep-layer flow should support at least a few of these storms moving west, off the terrain. Steep low-level lapse rates will support strong downward momentum transport capable of producing damaging wind gusts with any thunderstorm.

..Marsh.. 07/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Monday, July 13

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100859 SPC AC 100859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

Ensemble guidance continues to indicate that the western US mid-level ridge will build into the north-central US during the first part of the forecast period. Toward the middle and end of the week, this ridge should retrograde westward as a series of mid-level troughs move across the apex of the ridge in central Canada. One particularly strong trough will impact New England on Tuesday into Wednesday.

### Tuesday/Day 5

GEFS and EPS ensemble guidance is in remarkably good agreement that a strong short-wave trough will approach New England during the day on Tuesday and move across the region Tuesday night. Ahead of this trough, both ensemble systems have mean surface temperatures in the 70Fs and 80Fs with surface dewpoints in the mid-to-upper-60Fs across much of the area. The result will be MUCAPE values in the 1000-2000 J/kg range amidst seasonably strong vertical shear. Supporting this are ensemble probabilities greater than 50 percent for the supercell composite index to be greater than 1.

As the trough approaches New England, the expectation is for one or more clusters of storms to develop during the afternoon across portions of Quebec and move into and then across New England during the late afternoon into evening/overnight hours. Although there is some spread within the ensemble regarding the timing of the wave moving across the area, with solutions ranging from afternoon to overnight, the overall environment should remain favorable for damaging thunderstorm winds to occur, even into the early overnight hours.

### Friday/Day 8

Ensemble guidance is beginning to suggest some severe potential across portions of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic region. This area is forecast to be on the eastern periphery of the strong western US ridge and near the basal region of a long-wave trough across eastern Canada and New England. Surface temperatures are expected to range from the upper-80Fs to mid-90Fs with surface dewpoint temperatures in the 60Fs. Parcel trajectories around the western ridge do not favor much in the way of an elevated mixed layer, so scattered thunderstorm development is likely. The magnitude of the severe potential will likely rest on the strength of the deep-layer shear and the number of storms.

..Marsh.. 07/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, July 14

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100859 SPC AC 100859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

Ensemble guidance continues to indicate that the western US mid-level ridge will build into the north-central US during the first part of the forecast period. Toward the middle and end of the week, this ridge should retrograde westward as a series of mid-level troughs move across the apex of the ridge in central Canada. One particularly strong trough will impact New England on Tuesday into Wednesday.

### Tuesday/Day 5

GEFS and EPS ensemble guidance is in remarkably good agreement that a strong short-wave trough will approach New England during the day on Tuesday and move across the region Tuesday night. Ahead of this trough, both ensemble systems have mean surface temperatures in the 70Fs and 80Fs with surface dewpoints in the mid-to-upper-60Fs across much of the area. The result will be MUCAPE values in the 1000-2000 J/kg range amidst seasonably strong vertical shear. Supporting this are ensemble probabilities greater than 50 percent for the supercell composite index to be greater than 1.

As the trough approaches New England, the expectation is for one or more clusters of storms to develop during the afternoon across portions of Quebec and move into and then across New England during the late afternoon into evening/overnight hours. Although there is some spread within the ensemble regarding the timing of the wave moving across the area, with solutions ranging from afternoon to overnight, the overall environment should remain favorable for damaging thunderstorm winds to occur, even into the early overnight hours.

### Friday/Day 8

Ensemble guidance is beginning to suggest some severe potential across portions of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic region. This area is forecast to be on the eastern periphery of the strong western US ridge and near the basal region of a long-wave trough across eastern Canada and New England. Surface temperatures are expected to range from the upper-80Fs to mid-90Fs with surface dewpoint temperatures in the 60Fs. Parcel trajectories around the western ridge do not favor much in the way of an elevated mixed layer, so scattered thunderstorm development is likely. The magnitude of the severe potential will likely rest on the strength of the deep-layer shear and the number of storms.

..Marsh.. 07/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, July 15

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100859 SPC AC 100859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

Ensemble guidance continues to indicate that the western US mid-level ridge will build into the north-central US during the first part of the forecast period. Toward the middle and end of the week, this ridge should retrograde westward as a series of mid-level troughs move across the apex of the ridge in central Canada. One particularly strong trough will impact New England on Tuesday into Wednesday.

### Tuesday/Day 5

GEFS and EPS ensemble guidance is in remarkably good agreement that a strong short-wave trough will approach New England during the day on Tuesday and move across the region Tuesday night. Ahead of this trough, both ensemble systems have mean surface temperatures in the 70Fs and 80Fs with surface dewpoints in the mid-to-upper-60Fs across much of the area. The result will be MUCAPE values in the 1000-2000 J/kg range amidst seasonably strong vertical shear. Supporting this are ensemble probabilities greater than 50 percent for the supercell composite index to be greater than 1.

As the trough approaches New England, the expectation is for one or more clusters of storms to develop during the afternoon across portions of Quebec and move into and then across New England during the late afternoon into evening/overnight hours. Although there is some spread within the ensemble regarding the timing of the wave moving across the area, with solutions ranging from afternoon to overnight, the overall environment should remain favorable for damaging thunderstorm winds to occur, even into the early overnight hours.

### Friday/Day 8

Ensemble guidance is beginning to suggest some severe potential across portions of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic region. This area is forecast to be on the eastern periphery of the strong western US ridge and near the basal region of a long-wave trough across eastern Canada and New England. Surface temperatures are expected to range from the upper-80Fs to mid-90Fs with surface dewpoint temperatures in the 60Fs. Parcel trajectories around the western ridge do not favor much in the way of an elevated mixed layer, so scattered thunderstorm development is likely. The magnitude of the severe potential will likely rest on the strength of the deep-layer shear and the number of storms.

..Marsh.. 07/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Thursday, July 16

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100859 SPC AC 100859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

Ensemble guidance continues to indicate that the western US mid-level ridge will build into the north-central US during the first part of the forecast period. Toward the middle and end of the week, this ridge should retrograde westward as a series of mid-level troughs move across the apex of the ridge in central Canada. One particularly strong trough will impact New England on Tuesday into Wednesday.

### Tuesday/Day 5

GEFS and EPS ensemble guidance is in remarkably good agreement that a strong short-wave trough will approach New England during the day on Tuesday and move across the region Tuesday night. Ahead of this trough, both ensemble systems have mean surface temperatures in the 70Fs and 80Fs with surface dewpoints in the mid-to-upper-60Fs across much of the area. The result will be MUCAPE values in the 1000-2000 J/kg range amidst seasonably strong vertical shear. Supporting this are ensemble probabilities greater than 50 percent for the supercell composite index to be greater than 1.

As the trough approaches New England, the expectation is for one or more clusters of storms to develop during the afternoon across portions of Quebec and move into and then across New England during the late afternoon into evening/overnight hours. Although there is some spread within the ensemble regarding the timing of the wave moving across the area, with solutions ranging from afternoon to overnight, the overall environment should remain favorable for damaging thunderstorm winds to occur, even into the early overnight hours.

### Friday/Day 8

Ensemble guidance is beginning to suggest some severe potential across portions of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic region. This area is forecast to be on the eastern periphery of the strong western US ridge and near the basal region of a long-wave trough across eastern Canada and New England. Surface temperatures are expected to range from the upper-80Fs to mid-90Fs with surface dewpoint temperatures in the 60Fs. Parcel trajectories around the western ridge do not favor much in the way of an elevated mixed layer, so scattered thunderstorm development is likely. The magnitude of the severe potential will likely rest on the strength of the deep-layer shear and the number of storms.

..Marsh.. 07/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Friday, July 17

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100859 SPC AC 100859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

Ensemble guidance continues to indicate that the western US mid-level ridge will build into the north-central US during the first part of the forecast period. Toward the middle and end of the week, this ridge should retrograde westward as a series of mid-level troughs move across the apex of the ridge in central Canada. One particularly strong trough will impact New England on Tuesday into Wednesday.

### Tuesday/Day 5

GEFS and EPS ensemble guidance is in remarkably good agreement that a strong short-wave trough will approach New England during the day on Tuesday and move across the region Tuesday night. Ahead of this trough, both ensemble systems have mean surface temperatures in the 70Fs and 80Fs with surface dewpoints in the mid-to-upper-60Fs across much of the area. The result will be MUCAPE values in the 1000-2000 J/kg range amidst seasonably strong vertical shear. Supporting this are ensemble probabilities greater than 50 percent for the supercell composite index to be greater than 1.

As the trough approaches New England, the expectation is for one or more clusters of storms to develop during the afternoon across portions of Quebec and move into and then across New England during the late afternoon into evening/overnight hours. Although there is some spread within the ensemble regarding the timing of the wave moving across the area, with solutions ranging from afternoon to overnight, the overall environment should remain favorable for damaging thunderstorm winds to occur, even into the early overnight hours.

### Friday/Day 8

Ensemble guidance is beginning to suggest some severe potential across portions of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic region. This area is forecast to be on the eastern periphery of the strong western US ridge and near the basal region of a long-wave trough across eastern Canada and New England. Surface temperatures are expected to range from the upper-80Fs to mid-90Fs with surface dewpoint temperatures in the 60Fs. Parcel trajectories around the western ridge do not favor much in the way of an elevated mixed layer, so scattered thunderstorm development is likely. The magnitude of the severe potential will likely rest on the strength of the deep-layer shear and the number of storms.

..Marsh.. 07/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

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National Risk Overview

Friday, July 10

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 15%

Saturday, July 11

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 15%

Sunday, July 12

ANY SEVERE: 5%

Monday, July 13

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Tuesday, July 14

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Wednesday, July 15

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Thursday, July 16

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, July 17

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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