Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, November 6
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the central/eastern Carolinas and coastal southern Mid-Atlantic.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 061556
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0956 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2026
Valid 061630Z - 071200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the central/eastern Carolinas and coastal southern Mid-Atlantic.
Eastern NC
An upper low over lower MI and an associated upper trough extending southward through the OH/TN valleys will track eastward today, providing large-scale forcing for ascent across much of the eastern states. A cluster of thunderstorms that began several hours ago in northern SC is progressing northeastward across central NC. Cloud cover ahead of this activity is limiting daytime heating/destabilization. However, dewpoints near 70F and cooling aloft will likely lead to a narrow corridor of MUCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg this afternoon. CAM guidance is in agreement that there will be a period of vigorous convection over eastern NC in the 19-23z time period. Low-level winds are somewhat veered and not particularly strong. However, stronger winds aloft and the approaching upper trough may result in sufficient organization for a few bowing structures capable damaging wind gusts and some hail. A small SLGT risk has been added to address this focused risk area.
Southeast AZ
A strong thunderstorm or two may occur this afternoon over extreme southeast AZ, in a steep lapse-rate and marginally unstable environment. While hail will be possible in the strongest cores, the threat appears too minimal for severe probabilities at this time.
..Hart/Kerr.. 11/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Saturday, November 7
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. Saturday and Saturday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 061700
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. Saturday and Saturday night.
Synopsis
An upper cyclone and attendant trough will pivot east/northeast across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Saturday. A cold front will have already moved offshore most of the Atlantic coast by Saturday morning, except perhaps over far eastern portions of New England. Isolated thunderstorm may occur within the warm conveyor ahead of the upper cyclone, though severe storms are not expected.
Additional, and more widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected across portions of southern/central TX within a low-level warm advection regime ahead of a developing upper cyclone across northern Mexico. Instability will remain too meager to support severe convection.
A few lightning flashes also will be possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest and strong southwesterly flow overspread the region ahead of an approaching upper shortwave trough and cold front late in the forecast period. Gusty winds may accompany convection as it moves onshore given the strength of background synoptic flow, but MUCAPE less than 200 J/kg will preclude severe convection.
..Leitman.. 11/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Sunday, November 8
Outlook Summary
No severe threat is forecast across the continental U.S. Sunday and Sunday night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 061833
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CST Fri Nov 06 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
No severe threat is forecast across the continental U.S. Sunday and Sunday night.
Synopsis
An upper-level low over northwest Mexico will spread eastward toward the Rio Grande Valley in TX on Sunday. Modest low to midlevel moisture will be in place across southern and central TX. Cool temperatures aloft will support weak elevated instability and isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible across southern/central TX as large-scale ascent overspreads the region for much of the period. Limited heating, poor low-level lapse rates/cool surface temperatures, and only minor elevated instability will preclude severe thunderstorm potential.
Thunderstorms are not expected elsewhere across the CONUS.
..Leitman.. 11/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Monday, November 9
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, November 9 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, November 10 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, November 11 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, November 13 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060747 SPC AC 060747
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
Early next week, west-northwesterly flow is forecast over much of the northern U.S., while an upper-level trough is forecast to move across the south-central states. Thunderstorms will be possible ahead of this weakening trough along the western Gulf Coast on Monday and Tuesday. By Wednesday, thunderstorms will be possible along the coast of Louisiana. From Wednesday into Thursday, a large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to dig southeastward into the east-central U.S. This will help usher cool and dry air southward across the U.S, limiting moisture return from the Gulf. As a result, thunderstorm potential appears to be low late in the Day 4 to 8 period.
..Broyles.. 11/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, November 10
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, November 9 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, November 10 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, November 11 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, November 13 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060747 SPC AC 060747
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
Early next week, west-northwesterly flow is forecast over much of the northern U.S., while an upper-level trough is forecast to move across the south-central states. Thunderstorms will be possible ahead of this weakening trough along the western Gulf Coast on Monday and Tuesday. By Wednesday, thunderstorms will be possible along the coast of Louisiana. From Wednesday into Thursday, a large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to dig southeastward into the east-central U.S. This will help usher cool and dry air southward across the U.S, limiting moisture return from the Gulf. As a result, thunderstorm potential appears to be low late in the Day 4 to 8 period.
..Broyles.. 11/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, November 11
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, November 9 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, November 10 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, November 11 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, November 13 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060747 SPC AC 060747
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
Early next week, west-northwesterly flow is forecast over much of the northern U.S., while an upper-level trough is forecast to move across the south-central states. Thunderstorms will be possible ahead of this weakening trough along the western Gulf Coast on Monday and Tuesday. By Wednesday, thunderstorms will be possible along the coast of Louisiana. From Wednesday into Thursday, a large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to dig southeastward into the east-central U.S. This will help usher cool and dry air southward across the U.S, limiting moisture return from the Gulf. As a result, thunderstorm potential appears to be low late in the Day 4 to 8 period.
..Broyles.. 11/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, November 12
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, November 9 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, November 10 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, November 11 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, November 13 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060747 SPC AC 060747
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
Early next week, west-northwesterly flow is forecast over much of the northern U.S., while an upper-level trough is forecast to move across the south-central states. Thunderstorms will be possible ahead of this weakening trough along the western Gulf Coast on Monday and Tuesday. By Wednesday, thunderstorms will be possible along the coast of Louisiana. From Wednesday into Thursday, a large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to dig southeastward into the east-central U.S. This will help usher cool and dry air southward across the U.S, limiting moisture return from the Gulf. As a result, thunderstorm potential appears to be low late in the Day 4 to 8 period.
..Broyles.. 11/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, November 13
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, November 9 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, November 10 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, November 11 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, November 13 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060747 SPC AC 060747
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
Early next week, west-northwesterly flow is forecast over much of the northern U.S., while an upper-level trough is forecast to move across the south-central states. Thunderstorms will be possible ahead of this weakening trough along the western Gulf Coast on Monday and Tuesday. By Wednesday, thunderstorms will be possible along the coast of Louisiana. From Wednesday into Thursday, a large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to dig southeastward into the east-central U.S. This will help usher cool and dry air southward across the U.S, limiting moisture return from the Gulf. As a result, thunderstorm potential appears to be low late in the Day 4 to 8 period.
..Broyles.. 11/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, November 6
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Saturday, November 7
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Sunday, November 8
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Monday, November 9
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, November 10
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, November 11
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, November 12
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, November 13
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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