Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, May 28
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening over western Idaho and east of the Cascades in Washington and Oregon, capable of damaging gusts, large hail, and perhaps a tornado.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 281608
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026
Valid 281630Z - 291200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM WESTERN IDAHO INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL WASHINGTON/OREGON.
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening over western Idaho and east of the Cascades in Washington and Oregon, capable of damaging gusts, large hail, and perhaps a tornado.
WA/OR/ID
Morning water vapor imagery shows an upper low over central CA, with a strong shortwave trough rotating around the low over central NV. This feature is forecast to move into ID/OR later today, with an associated 40-50 knot mid level jet affecting the area. Strong heating, dewpoints in the upper 40s-lower 50s, and steepening mid-level lapse rates will lead to moderate CAPE values over much of western ID into central WA/OR, setting the stage for afternoon thunderstorms. Activity is expected to first develop across southwest ID/southern OR, where sufficient vertical shear would support supercell structures capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Morning CAM guidance suggests activity will organize into multiple clusters by evening, tracking northwestward across the Columbia Basin into western/central WA. These storms would continue to pose a damaging wind threat.
CO
Strong heating and sufficient low-level moisture will likely result in widely scattered thunderstorms in the foothills of the Front Range this afternoon. The strongest cells could produce hail.
KS
A remnant weak vorticity max is tracking northward near the OK/KS border. Southeasterly low-level winds to the north of the vort max may result in sufficient shear for weak rotation in a few storms later today. While a brief spin-up over north-central KS cannot be ruled out, the overall threat appears too weak for outlook probabilities today.
..Hart/Lyons.. 05/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Friday, May 29
Outlook Summary
A few storms may produce marginal hail or strong gusts from eastern New Mexico and western Texas across Oklahoma and toward Kansas on Friday. A few strong to severe storms may also occur across western Montana with gusty winds and marginal hail. Isolated severe storms are also possible across portions of the central High Plains.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 281718
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN MONTANA…THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS…AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
### SUMMARY
A few storms may produce marginal hail or strong gusts from eastern New Mexico and western Texas across Oklahoma and toward Kansas on Friday. A few strong to severe storms may also occur across western Montana with gusty winds and marginal hail. Isolated severe storms are also possible across portions of the central High Plains.
Synopsis
A closed low across the Great Basin will become an open wave on Friday and start to advance northeast toward the central Rockies. As this occurs, lee troughing will begin across the southern and central High Plains and into eastern Montana. A strong mid-level trough will move southward across eastern Canada into the Northeast.
### Western into north-central Montana
Weak to moderate instability will build across western Montana on Friday as dewpoints increase into the mid 50s and mid-level temperatures cool. Mid-level flow is forecast to increase to 25 to 30 knots across western Montana which may provide sufficient shear for a few more organized storms. These storms should develop by mid-afternoon and move northward, potentially growing upscale into one or more linear structures.
Central High Plains
Surface moisture is forecast to back up near the terrain across northern Colorado and southeast Wyoming on Friday. This will lead to weak to moderate instability across the region. In addition to typical terrain circulations, guidance suggests a weak mid-level shortwave trough may emerge across the region and provide additional support for storm development. Shear is forecast to remain relatively weak, but weak to moderate instability, and steep lapse rates will support some threat for severe wind gusts and perhaps isolated large hail.
Southern High Plains into the central Plains
A southern stream mid-level jet streak is forecast to emerge from northern Mexico into the southern High Plains Friday afternoon/evening. This ~40 knot jet streak will overspread portions of the southern High Plains and the dryline. This should provide ample shear for storm organization during the afternoon/evening. Greater storm coverage and storm organization may exist between Midland and Amarillo at the nose of this stronger mid-level flow. However, it appears the greater moisture will remain farther east and thus, storm intensity maybe somewhat mitigated. Therefore, hail/wind probabilities remain 5% at this time.
Additional storms may develop from central Kansas to north-central Oklahoma along a frontal boundary amid weak isentropic ascent. Greater instability is expected within this zone, however, mid-level flow is forecast to be weaker which may challenge storm organization.
..Bentley.. 05/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Saturday, May 30
Outlook Summary
Scattered storms, some possibly severe with wind and hail potential, are expected over parts of the Plains states on Saturday. The most concentrated area is forecast to be over western Nebraska and South Dakota.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 280730
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA
### SUMMARY
Scattered storms, some possibly severe with wind and hail potential, are expected over parts of the Plains states on Saturday. The most concentrated area is forecast to be over western Nebraska and South Dakota.
Northern High Plains
An upper low/shortwave trough will eject in negative tilt fashion across the northern Rockies on Saturday, with a lobe of stronger winds aloft across the area. Midlevel temperatures will be cool, with -12 or colder at 500 mb. This, combined with an influx of low 60s F dewpoints into western SD and NE, will support moderate instability. Further, surface winds will be backed to southeasterly, as will winds at 850 mb, helping to transport moisture westward and enhance storm relative inflow. Storms appear likely to form during the late afternoon within the surface trough, with large hail and perhaps brief tornado potential. Then, storms will likely merge into a forward-propagating cluster or MCS, with damaging winds into the evening.
KS/OK/TX
At least isolated severe activity appears possible Saturday afternoon, including hail and damaging wind threat, as a moist and unstable air mass develops. While the main upper wave will be well to the north, cool midlevel temperatures will remain over the region, which when combined with upper 60s F dewpoints and daytime heating, will result in 2000-3000 J/kg MUCAPE. A surface trough and dryline are forecast to extend from central KS into western OK and northwest TX, and surface convergence may be sufficient to support sporadic cell development by late afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate veering but weak shear profiles, however, slow-moving supercells may occur with large hail and locally severe gusts.
..Jewell.. 05/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Sunday, May 31
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, May 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, June 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, June 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, June 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, June 4 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280837 SPC AC 280837
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
For much of the D4-D8 period, an upper trough is forecast to reside over the Northeast, with high pressure over the Great Lakes and much of the Midwest to Mid Atlantic. West of this surface high, southerly winds across the Plains will maintain a moist air mass with 60s and 70s F dewpoints prevalent.
In the upper levels, a weak negatively tilted trough will shift slowly northward across the northern Plains & Rockies on Sunday/D4 and Monday/D5, providing cooler temperatures aloft and slightly stronger wind speeds. Farther south into the central and southern Plains, winds aloft will be even weaker, however, the midlevels will remain relatively cool, supporting areas of strong instability due to steep lapse rates aloft.
In general, areas of strong thunderstorms appear likely on a daily basis across much of the Plains during the peak heating hours. Areas of severe storms will be possible as well due to the widespread 2000+ J/kg MUCAPE, with localized hail & wind potential where clusters develop. The NE/KS/OK/MO area in particular will be within the heart of the instability axis, with 3000-4000 J/kg possible.
Predictability is low in this pattern due to lack of large-scale forcing, and the fact that clusters of storms may persist overnight as various outflow boundaries affect storm potential each subsequent day. However, smaller/more focused areas of potential may become evident in subsequent outlook cycles.
..Jewell.. 05/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, June 1
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, May 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, June 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, June 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, June 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, June 4 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280837 SPC AC 280837
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
For much of the D4-D8 period, an upper trough is forecast to reside over the Northeast, with high pressure over the Great Lakes and much of the Midwest to Mid Atlantic. West of this surface high, southerly winds across the Plains will maintain a moist air mass with 60s and 70s F dewpoints prevalent.
In the upper levels, a weak negatively tilted trough will shift slowly northward across the northern Plains & Rockies on Sunday/D4 and Monday/D5, providing cooler temperatures aloft and slightly stronger wind speeds. Farther south into the central and southern Plains, winds aloft will be even weaker, however, the midlevels will remain relatively cool, supporting areas of strong instability due to steep lapse rates aloft.
In general, areas of strong thunderstorms appear likely on a daily basis across much of the Plains during the peak heating hours. Areas of severe storms will be possible as well due to the widespread 2000+ J/kg MUCAPE, with localized hail & wind potential where clusters develop. The NE/KS/OK/MO area in particular will be within the heart of the instability axis, with 3000-4000 J/kg possible.
Predictability is low in this pattern due to lack of large-scale forcing, and the fact that clusters of storms may persist overnight as various outflow boundaries affect storm potential each subsequent day. However, smaller/more focused areas of potential may become evident in subsequent outlook cycles.
..Jewell.. 05/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, June 2
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, May 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, June 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, June 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, June 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, June 4 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280837 SPC AC 280837
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
For much of the D4-D8 period, an upper trough is forecast to reside over the Northeast, with high pressure over the Great Lakes and much of the Midwest to Mid Atlantic. West of this surface high, southerly winds across the Plains will maintain a moist air mass with 60s and 70s F dewpoints prevalent.
In the upper levels, a weak negatively tilted trough will shift slowly northward across the northern Plains & Rockies on Sunday/D4 and Monday/D5, providing cooler temperatures aloft and slightly stronger wind speeds. Farther south into the central and southern Plains, winds aloft will be even weaker, however, the midlevels will remain relatively cool, supporting areas of strong instability due to steep lapse rates aloft.
In general, areas of strong thunderstorms appear likely on a daily basis across much of the Plains during the peak heating hours. Areas of severe storms will be possible as well due to the widespread 2000+ J/kg MUCAPE, with localized hail & wind potential where clusters develop. The NE/KS/OK/MO area in particular will be within the heart of the instability axis, with 3000-4000 J/kg possible.
Predictability is low in this pattern due to lack of large-scale forcing, and the fact that clusters of storms may persist overnight as various outflow boundaries affect storm potential each subsequent day. However, smaller/more focused areas of potential may become evident in subsequent outlook cycles.
..Jewell.. 05/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, June 3
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, May 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, June 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, June 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, June 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, June 4 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280837 SPC AC 280837
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
For much of the D4-D8 period, an upper trough is forecast to reside over the Northeast, with high pressure over the Great Lakes and much of the Midwest to Mid Atlantic. West of this surface high, southerly winds across the Plains will maintain a moist air mass with 60s and 70s F dewpoints prevalent.
In the upper levels, a weak negatively tilted trough will shift slowly northward across the northern Plains & Rockies on Sunday/D4 and Monday/D5, providing cooler temperatures aloft and slightly stronger wind speeds. Farther south into the central and southern Plains, winds aloft will be even weaker, however, the midlevels will remain relatively cool, supporting areas of strong instability due to steep lapse rates aloft.
In general, areas of strong thunderstorms appear likely on a daily basis across much of the Plains during the peak heating hours. Areas of severe storms will be possible as well due to the widespread 2000+ J/kg MUCAPE, with localized hail & wind potential where clusters develop. The NE/KS/OK/MO area in particular will be within the heart of the instability axis, with 3000-4000 J/kg possible.
Predictability is low in this pattern due to lack of large-scale forcing, and the fact that clusters of storms may persist overnight as various outflow boundaries affect storm potential each subsequent day. However, smaller/more focused areas of potential may become evident in subsequent outlook cycles.
..Jewell.. 05/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, June 4
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, May 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, June 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, June 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, June 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, June 4 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280837 SPC AC 280837
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
For much of the D4-D8 period, an upper trough is forecast to reside over the Northeast, with high pressure over the Great Lakes and much of the Midwest to Mid Atlantic. West of this surface high, southerly winds across the Plains will maintain a moist air mass with 60s and 70s F dewpoints prevalent.
In the upper levels, a weak negatively tilted trough will shift slowly northward across the northern Plains & Rockies on Sunday/D4 and Monday/D5, providing cooler temperatures aloft and slightly stronger wind speeds. Farther south into the central and southern Plains, winds aloft will be even weaker, however, the midlevels will remain relatively cool, supporting areas of strong instability due to steep lapse rates aloft.
In general, areas of strong thunderstorms appear likely on a daily basis across much of the Plains during the peak heating hours. Areas of severe storms will be possible as well due to the widespread 2000+ J/kg MUCAPE, with localized hail & wind potential where clusters develop. The NE/KS/OK/MO area in particular will be within the heart of the instability axis, with 3000-4000 J/kg possible.
Predictability is low in this pattern due to lack of large-scale forcing, and the fact that clusters of storms may persist overnight as various outflow boundaries affect storm potential each subsequent day. However, smaller/more focused areas of potential may become evident in subsequent outlook cycles.
..Jewell.. 05/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, May 28
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Friday, May 29
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Saturday, May 30
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Sunday, May 31
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, June 1
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, June 2
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, June 3
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, June 4
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Your Severe Outlook
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