Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, November 13
Outlook Summary
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. today or tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 131249
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026
Valid 131300Z - 141200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. today or tonight.
Southwest States including southern Arizona
A southern-stream shortwave trough near the SoCal/northern Baja coast will continue generally eastward along the international border, while a more prominent upper trough amplifies a bit more along the West Coast toward the Great Basin. Ahead of the southern stream trough, isolated thunderstorm development will become more probable by late morning into the afternoon across southern Arizona as forcing for ascent overspreads a modestly moist/unstable boundary layer.
A few stronger low-topped storms could develop/spread north-northeastward into south-central/southeast Arizona by around mid-afternoon. Some small hail and/or gusty winds are plausible, but current thinking is that organized severe thunderstorm potential will be curbed by a trend of weakening low/mid-tropospheric flow into this afternoon (effective shear 25 kt or less), along with the relatively cool thermal profiles and perceived limitations on downdraft intensity. A bit later in the day, a somewhat stronger combination of deep-layer winds and lapse rates/buoyancy could also contribute to some stronger storm potential toward the Rio Grande River valley of southern New Mexico and far west Texas, but overall severe potential should remain low.
Across northern California, while lightning flash potential will likely remain limited, some convective enhancement to the inland-spreading precipitation may influence some stronger near-coastal wind gusts. Additional low-topped convection is expected as lapse rates steepen within the post-frontal environment later today for near-coastal areas and possibly parts of the interior valley.
..Guyer/Mead.. 11/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Saturday, November 14
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely across the U.S. Saturday and Saturday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 130657
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely across the U.S. Saturday and Saturday night.
Southern Plains
A mid-level trough over the western US is forecast to deamplify, as the primary shortwave continues southeastward across the southern Rockies/Plains. To the west, another trough will deepen across the Pacific coast while surface high pressure with cool and relatively dry conditions dominates the East. As the upper trough migrates across the Rockies and into the Plains Saturday/Saturday night, strong mid-level ascent will deepen a lee cyclone from southeastern CO into NM and West TX. Southerly flow will increase and modest surface moisture return (40s to near 50 F dewpoints) will occur beneath cooling mid-level temperatures over the southern High Plains. Weak destabilization is expected with model profiles showing perhaps up to 500 J/kg of elevated MUCAPE available.
Ascent from the upper trough and increasing low-level warm air advection will likely support scattered thunderstorms from the Four Corners to OK/TX from Saturday afternoon/evening. A 30-40 kt southerly low-level jet over parts of western OK/TX may also aide in additional convection overnight. Some potential for a few stronger storms may exist if sufficient buoyancy and around 30-40 kts of effective shear develop. Likely elevated, marginally severe hail would be the primary hazard with any stronger storms able to persist. However the scant destabilization casts significant uncertainty on severe potential, as such, probabilities will be withheld for now.
Elsewhere, occasional lightning flashes will be possible along the Pacific Northwest coast ahead of the aforementioned upper trough. Additional storms are also possible along the lower TX Gulf coast within the southerly return flow and warm advection regime. Very weak buoyancy is expected and coverage, as well as any severe potential will remain low in both locales.
..Lyons.. 11/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Sunday, November 15
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across central and the south Texas to the Gulf Coast.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 130828
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across central and the south Texas to the Gulf Coast.
Synopsis
A shortwave trough and mid-level jet will move from the southern High Plains into central TX beneath a building ridge over the Midwest Sunday. An associated surface low will aid southerly flow drawing a modified Gulf air mass northward across south-central TX. However, the expansive surface high to the northeast will likely stall the northward advance of the more robust surface moisture farther south. Elevated buoyancy and thunderstorms are likely across the Red River Vicinity with additional thunderstorm development possible farther south through Sunday and into early Monday.
South-central TX to the Gulf Coast
Showers and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing at the start of the period near the center of the upper trough and surface low associated with low-level warm air advection. Multiple rounds of showers and storms, in combination with the increasingly strong northerly surface gradient, should gradually focus the effective warm sector farther south into TX. Elevated buoyancy of a few hundred J/kg may persist across the Red River vicinity through Sunday afternoon, with low-end potential for sporadic hail with any stronger elevated storms.
Farther south, more robust inland moisture return is expected with mid to upper 60s F surface dewpoints. As the upper trough approaches, low-level warm air advection and diurnal destabilization should support an increase in thunderstorm activity across parts of south and central Texas eastward to the lower to middle Texas Coast. Gradually strengthening veering wind profiles (EBWD 30-40 kt) may favor storm organization into clusters or transient supercells. Damaging gusts, some hail and perhaps a brief tornado are possible into early Monday.
..Lyons.. 11/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Monday, November 16
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, November 16 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, November 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, November 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, November 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, November 20 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 131000 SPC AC 131000
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
The upper trough across the TX Gulf Coast is forecast to continue eastward and weaken as ridging intensifies over the central US. The strong surface response to the building ridge (1030-1035 mb) will favor cool, dry and stable offshore flow over much of the CONUS. Thunderstorms will likely be confined to the near-shore coastal waters of the Gulf through the remainder of the weekend and into early next week.
Mid to late week
Ensemble guidance eventually shows the upper ridge yielding to increasingly strong western US troughing sometime mid to late week. Model solutions vary, with AINWP guidance considerably stronger and faster than physics-based ensembles with ejecting the deep upper trough and surface low D5/Tues - D7/Thur. Regardless, it appears likely that stronger southwesterly flow aloft will move eastward from the Desert Southwest into the southern Rockies and eventually the central US, with increasing thunderstorm chances mid to late week next week. The prominent high pressure over the Midwest will likely delay substantial moisture return, casting significant uncertainty on any severe potential. Predictability remains low through much of the forecast period.
..Lyons.. 11/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, November 17
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, November 16 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, November 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, November 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, November 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, November 20 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 131000 SPC AC 131000
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
The upper trough across the TX Gulf Coast is forecast to continue eastward and weaken as ridging intensifies over the central US. The strong surface response to the building ridge (1030-1035 mb) will favor cool, dry and stable offshore flow over much of the CONUS. Thunderstorms will likely be confined to the near-shore coastal waters of the Gulf through the remainder of the weekend and into early next week.
Mid to late week
Ensemble guidance eventually shows the upper ridge yielding to increasingly strong western US troughing sometime mid to late week. Model solutions vary, with AINWP guidance considerably stronger and faster than physics-based ensembles with ejecting the deep upper trough and surface low D5/Tues - D7/Thur. Regardless, it appears likely that stronger southwesterly flow aloft will move eastward from the Desert Southwest into the southern Rockies and eventually the central US, with increasing thunderstorm chances mid to late week next week. The prominent high pressure over the Midwest will likely delay substantial moisture return, casting significant uncertainty on any severe potential. Predictability remains low through much of the forecast period.
..Lyons.. 11/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, November 18
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, November 16 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, November 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, November 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, November 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, November 20 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 131000 SPC AC 131000
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
The upper trough across the TX Gulf Coast is forecast to continue eastward and weaken as ridging intensifies over the central US. The strong surface response to the building ridge (1030-1035 mb) will favor cool, dry and stable offshore flow over much of the CONUS. Thunderstorms will likely be confined to the near-shore coastal waters of the Gulf through the remainder of the weekend and into early next week.
Mid to late week
Ensemble guidance eventually shows the upper ridge yielding to increasingly strong western US troughing sometime mid to late week. Model solutions vary, with AINWP guidance considerably stronger and faster than physics-based ensembles with ejecting the deep upper trough and surface low D5/Tues - D7/Thur. Regardless, it appears likely that stronger southwesterly flow aloft will move eastward from the Desert Southwest into the southern Rockies and eventually the central US, with increasing thunderstorm chances mid to late week next week. The prominent high pressure over the Midwest will likely delay substantial moisture return, casting significant uncertainty on any severe potential. Predictability remains low through much of the forecast period.
..Lyons.. 11/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, November 19
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, November 16 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, November 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, November 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, November 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, November 20 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 131000 SPC AC 131000
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
The upper trough across the TX Gulf Coast is forecast to continue eastward and weaken as ridging intensifies over the central US. The strong surface response to the building ridge (1030-1035 mb) will favor cool, dry and stable offshore flow over much of the CONUS. Thunderstorms will likely be confined to the near-shore coastal waters of the Gulf through the remainder of the weekend and into early next week.
Mid to late week
Ensemble guidance eventually shows the upper ridge yielding to increasingly strong western US troughing sometime mid to late week. Model solutions vary, with AINWP guidance considerably stronger and faster than physics-based ensembles with ejecting the deep upper trough and surface low D5/Tues - D7/Thur. Regardless, it appears likely that stronger southwesterly flow aloft will move eastward from the Desert Southwest into the southern Rockies and eventually the central US, with increasing thunderstorm chances mid to late week next week. The prominent high pressure over the Midwest will likely delay substantial moisture return, casting significant uncertainty on any severe potential. Predictability remains low through much of the forecast period.
..Lyons.. 11/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, November 20
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, November 16 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, November 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, November 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, November 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, November 20 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 131000 SPC AC 131000
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
The upper trough across the TX Gulf Coast is forecast to continue eastward and weaken as ridging intensifies over the central US. The strong surface response to the building ridge (1030-1035 mb) will favor cool, dry and stable offshore flow over much of the CONUS. Thunderstorms will likely be confined to the near-shore coastal waters of the Gulf through the remainder of the weekend and into early next week.
Mid to late week
Ensemble guidance eventually shows the upper ridge yielding to increasingly strong western US troughing sometime mid to late week. Model solutions vary, with AINWP guidance considerably stronger and faster than physics-based ensembles with ejecting the deep upper trough and surface low D5/Tues - D7/Thur. Regardless, it appears likely that stronger southwesterly flow aloft will move eastward from the Desert Southwest into the southern Rockies and eventually the central US, with increasing thunderstorm chances mid to late week next week. The prominent high pressure over the Midwest will likely delay substantial moisture return, casting significant uncertainty on any severe potential. Predictability remains low through much of the forecast period.
..Lyons.. 11/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, November 13
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Saturday, November 14
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Sunday, November 15
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Monday, November 16
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, November 17
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, November 18
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, November 19
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, November 20
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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