Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, September 30
Outlook Summary
A couple of tornadoes remain possible the next hour or two across mainly north-central/northeast KS. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms posing mainly a risk for strong gusts are possible across OK/TX through tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 010035
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026
Valid 010100Z - 011200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK…AND OVER NORTH-CENTRAL KS
### SUMMARY
A couple of tornadoes remain possible the next hour or two across mainly north-central/northeast KS. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms posing mainly a risk for strong gusts are possible across OK/TX through tonight.
KS/NE/IA
A tornado risk may persist for another hour or two across north-central KS and vicinity. Storms ongoing across this area will increasingly encounter a less favorable environment with time and northeast extent as a midlevel dry slot continues to spread east/northeast across the area. Additionally, cooler temperatures near/along a weak warm front near the KS/NE border and loss of daytime heating will result in increasing low-level inhibition. Furthermore, the strengthening low-level, which has likely recently contributed to at least a couple of tornado reports will continue to shift east and become misaligned with the nearly stationary surface low. As a result, the tornado risk should decrease through the remainder of the evening. Nevertheless, a couple of strong storms could still produce gusty winds into the nighttime hours. Reference MCD 2341 for more details.
OK/TX
Convection is expected to continue increasing over the next few hours across the southern Plains along a surface trough. A modestly unstable airmass will persist into the nighttime hours. Sufficient effective shear magnitudes will support at least transient updraft organization through the evening. Strong gusts will be the main hazard with convection into late evening/early overnight. Vertically veering wind profiles through 2-3 km also will support increased effective SRH within the moist airmass. A brief spin-up could occur with stronger/better organized convection.
..Leitman.. 10/01/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Thursday, October 1
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe storms capable of mainly severe wind gusts appear possible over portions of Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas Thursday afternoon and evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 301656
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF KANSAS…OKLAHOMA…AND TEXAS
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe storms capable of mainly severe wind gusts appear possible over portions of Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas Thursday afternoon and evening.
Synopsis
An upper low initially over the central and southern High Plains Thursday morning is forecast to break down into a positively tilted, open wave with a series of vorticity maxima spreading from KS and OK into the Great Lakes and OH Valley. At the surface, a cold front stretching from the Great Lakes into the central High Plains at the start of the period will advance south into the OH and mid MS Valleys, Ozark Plateau, and the southern Plains by Thursday night. That boundary will progressively overtake a north-south-oriented Pacific front, which will become quasi-stationary over the southern Plains.
Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas
A band of showers and thunderstorms is likely to be ongoing at 12Z Thursday from eastern KS and western MO into central TX within the warm-conveyor air stream preceding the weakening mid-level system. A subset of those storms is likely to continue through the day, fueled by a very moist and at least marginally unstable air mass and within the right entrance region of an upper-level jet streak progressing northeast away from the region. In areas peripheral to active convection where stronger heating can occur, pockets of moderate instability are expected to develop by mid to late afternoon.
Based on 12Z guidance, a couple areas appear more favorable for at least isolated severe storm development during the afternoon into evening. The first is over southern KS and northern OK where an overlap of stronger deep-layer shear and moderate buoyancy is expected to materialized ahead of the cold front. Multicell and transient supercell storm modes appear possible with an associated risk for locally severe wind gusts and/or marginally severe hail. AI-based guidance hints at some tornado threat; however, the southward-advancing cold front may tend to undercut surface-based storms forming along it, effectively limiting the potential.
The other area is over Deep South TX where afternoon storms will have access to a reservoir of greater instability (MLCAPE up to 2500 J/kg). While vertical shear is expected to remain weak, the presence of a very moist air mass will support the potential for locally intense wet microbursts capable of severe wind gusts.
..Mead.. 09/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Friday, October 2
Outlook Summary
No severe thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. on Friday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 301919
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
No severe thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. on Friday.
Discussion
A vigorous, polar-branch trough progressing through the Great Lakes and Northeast will become disconnected from a positively tilted, lower-latitude trough over the southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front initially from the lower Great Lakes into the southern Plains Friday morning will advance south through the Mid-Atlantic and the OH and TN Valleys toward the Gulf Coast states.
A fairly expansive area of showers and thunderstorms is expected to be ongoing at 12Z Friday along and ahead of the front from the OH Valley into the southern Plains. Lingering precipitation and associated cloud cover are expected to limit daytime heating and resultant air mass destabilization at many locations along the boundary into the afternoon. Latest model guidance indicates the segment of the front from southern MO and northern AR to along the OH River will coincide with 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear with the vector orientation largely paralleling the boundary. As such, the risk for a strong storm or two capable of gusty winds could materialize in those areas Friday afternoon and evening given sufficient destabilization for surface-based storms. The overall severe weather threat still appears too low to warrant inclusion of Marginal-Risk probabilities.
..Mead.. 09/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Saturday, October 3
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 3 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, October 4 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, October 5 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, October 6 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, October 7 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300852 SPC AC 300852
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level cyclonic flow pattern will be in place over the weekend across the northeastern U.S., as multiple shortwave troughs move through the larger-scale trough. A cold front will advance southward to near the Gulf Coast. Thunderstorm development will be possible along and near the front during the day on Saturday and Sunday, but no severe threat is expected.
During the upcoming early to mid week, mid-level flow is forecast to become west-northwesterly across much of the U.S. A dry and relatively cool airmass is forecast to be in place over the eastern half of the nation. On the western edge of the high pressure area, low-level moisture advection will be possible across the Great Plains. Thunderstorm development may occur on Tuesday and Wednesday in parts of the central Plains, as a cold front approaches. Although instability and deep-layer shear are not forecast to be sufficient for a substantial severe threat, a few marginally severe storms will be possible in areas that destabilize the most.
..Broyles.. 09/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, October 4
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 3 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, October 4 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, October 5 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, October 6 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, October 7 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300852 SPC AC 300852
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level cyclonic flow pattern will be in place over the weekend across the northeastern U.S., as multiple shortwave troughs move through the larger-scale trough. A cold front will advance southward to near the Gulf Coast. Thunderstorm development will be possible along and near the front during the day on Saturday and Sunday, but no severe threat is expected.
During the upcoming early to mid week, mid-level flow is forecast to become west-northwesterly across much of the U.S. A dry and relatively cool airmass is forecast to be in place over the eastern half of the nation. On the western edge of the high pressure area, low-level moisture advection will be possible across the Great Plains. Thunderstorm development may occur on Tuesday and Wednesday in parts of the central Plains, as a cold front approaches. Although instability and deep-layer shear are not forecast to be sufficient for a substantial severe threat, a few marginally severe storms will be possible in areas that destabilize the most.
..Broyles.. 09/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, October 5
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 3 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, October 4 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, October 5 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, October 6 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, October 7 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300852 SPC AC 300852
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level cyclonic flow pattern will be in place over the weekend across the northeastern U.S., as multiple shortwave troughs move through the larger-scale trough. A cold front will advance southward to near the Gulf Coast. Thunderstorm development will be possible along and near the front during the day on Saturday and Sunday, but no severe threat is expected.
During the upcoming early to mid week, mid-level flow is forecast to become west-northwesterly across much of the U.S. A dry and relatively cool airmass is forecast to be in place over the eastern half of the nation. On the western edge of the high pressure area, low-level moisture advection will be possible across the Great Plains. Thunderstorm development may occur on Tuesday and Wednesday in parts of the central Plains, as a cold front approaches. Although instability and deep-layer shear are not forecast to be sufficient for a substantial severe threat, a few marginally severe storms will be possible in areas that destabilize the most.
..Broyles.. 09/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, October 6
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 3 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, October 4 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, October 5 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, October 6 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, October 7 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300852 SPC AC 300852
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level cyclonic flow pattern will be in place over the weekend across the northeastern U.S., as multiple shortwave troughs move through the larger-scale trough. A cold front will advance southward to near the Gulf Coast. Thunderstorm development will be possible along and near the front during the day on Saturday and Sunday, but no severe threat is expected.
During the upcoming early to mid week, mid-level flow is forecast to become west-northwesterly across much of the U.S. A dry and relatively cool airmass is forecast to be in place over the eastern half of the nation. On the western edge of the high pressure area, low-level moisture advection will be possible across the Great Plains. Thunderstorm development may occur on Tuesday and Wednesday in parts of the central Plains, as a cold front approaches. Although instability and deep-layer shear are not forecast to be sufficient for a substantial severe threat, a few marginally severe storms will be possible in areas that destabilize the most.
..Broyles.. 09/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, October 7
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 3 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, October 4 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, October 5 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, October 6 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, October 7 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300852 SPC AC 300852
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level cyclonic flow pattern will be in place over the weekend across the northeastern U.S., as multiple shortwave troughs move through the larger-scale trough. A cold front will advance southward to near the Gulf Coast. Thunderstorm development will be possible along and near the front during the day on Saturday and Sunday, but no severe threat is expected.
During the upcoming early to mid week, mid-level flow is forecast to become west-northwesterly across much of the U.S. A dry and relatively cool airmass is forecast to be in place over the eastern half of the nation. On the western edge of the high pressure area, low-level moisture advection will be possible across the Great Plains. Thunderstorm development may occur on Tuesday and Wednesday in parts of the central Plains, as a cold front approaches. Although instability and deep-layer shear are not forecast to be sufficient for a substantial severe threat, a few marginally severe storms will be possible in areas that destabilize the most.
..Broyles.. 09/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, September 30
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Thursday, October 1
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Friday, October 2
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Saturday, October 3
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, October 4
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, October 5
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, October 6
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, October 7
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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