Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, August 24
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible mainly this afternoon and evening across the Dakotas and northwest Minnesota as well as the central High Plains. Other severe storms may focus across the lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf Coast, as well as the coastal Carolinas.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 240559
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST…CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS…MIDDLE GULF COAST AND COASTAL CAROLINAS
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible mainly this afternoon and evening across the Dakotas and northwest Minnesota as well as the central High Plains. Other severe storms may focus across the lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf Coast, as well as the coastal Carolinas.
Dakotas/Upper Midwest to central High Plains
An eastward-moving shortwave trough will emerge from the Canadian Rockies and move across the Canadian prairies through tonight, with a belt of moderately strong flow aloft and multiple MCVs influencing the Dakotas to Minnesota. Residual early day convection and lingering cloud cover will be complicating factors as far as the later-day forecast scenario.
That said, at least widely scattered thunderstorms should develop and increase by late afternoon within a moist/unstable air mass near the eastward-moving front and weak surface wave across the east-central Dakotas and/or cross the international border and move southeastward into the region. Deep-layer wind profiles would be conducive to some supercells and the development of east/southeastward-moving clusters by evening, with large hail and damaging winds possible.
More removed from the stronger cyclonic flow aloft, additional higher-based storms are expected by late afternoon and early evening south-southwestward across the Black Hills/western Nebraska in vicinity of the front and preceding trough. Sufficient strength/veering of winds with height should support some initial supercells capable of hail, prior to a clustering of these southeastward-moving storms, with wind damage being a possibility through mid/late evening across the central High Plains.
Coastal Carolinas
The region will be influenced by moderately strong cyclonic flow aloft, with a moist and moderate-to-strongly unstable environment along the coastal plain to the east of a stationary/slow-moving front. The degree of buoyancy and upwards of 35-40 kt effective shear could support some initial supercells with hail this afternoon, although damaging winds should be the most prevalent concern as storms become more numerous. Severe potential should tend to wane by around sunset.
Lower Mississippi Valley/Middle Gulf Coast
Widely scattered elevated convection has developed early in the overnight across the Ozarks, and this regime may increase and probably shift south-southeastward today, potentially becoming surface based into the afternoon, influenced by cold pool development. It seems plausible that an upscale-growing/forward propagating cluster could gradually evolve during the day, with damaging wind potential increasing across the ArkLaMiss south-southeastward toward the Gulf Coast.
Northern Great Basin/central Rockies
Scattered high-based thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon amid classic inverted-V profiles. Since these storms will develop along the periphery of stronger flow aloft, some organization is possible. Multiple dry microbursts may occur, some of which may pose a severe gust threat.
Maine
By late morning into early afternoon, partially clearing skies will encourage surface temperatures to rise into the 70s F, resulting in marginal instability (e.g. a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE) given relatively poor mid-level lapse rates. Nonetheless, a southerly mid-to upper-level jet streak will overspread northern New England during the afternoon, resulting in highly elongated hodographs and 30-40 kt of effective shear. As such, any storms that can develop and become sustained should become organized multicells capable of supporting a few damaging gusts and possibly some hail.
..Guyer/Weinman.. 08/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Tuesday, August 25
Outlook Summary
Scattered strong to severe storms are likely across portions of the central Plains on Tuesday. More isolated severe storms may also occur across parts of the Southeast and the Upper Mississippi Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 240600
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
### SUMMARY
Scattered strong to severe storms are likely across portions of the central Plains on Tuesday. More isolated severe storms may also occur across parts of the Southeast and the Upper Mississippi Valley.
Upper Midwest
A mid-level shortwave trough will dive southeastward across the Upper Midwest on Tuesday with an associated surface low and cold front moving across Minnesota and eventually into Wisconsin. Low 60s dewpoints ahead of this cold front will result in weak to moderate instability by mid-afternoon. Storm organization may be somewhat lacking during the afternoon, but as the mid-level jet streak overspreads the warm sector during the evening, a more favorable environment is expected across northwest Wisconsin and vicinity. Within this zone, a few supercells may occur during the evening with a greater severe weather threat. However, the limited temporal and spatial scale, and some concerns about storm coverage during this timeframe, preclude Slight Risk issuance at this time.
Central Plains
Moderate to strong instability is forecast within a northwesterly flow pattern across the central Plains. Weak height falls and strong heating should result in scattered storm coverage across most of the High Plains by the mid to late afternoon. 00Z guidance has trended toward a stronger convective signal and greater instability across southern Nebraska and northern Kansas. Have shifted the Day 3 Slight Risk area accordingly. While storms remain likely across much of this region, the more organized severe threat will likely be near the greatest instability.
Southeast
Moderate to strong heating is expected amid a very moist airmass (mid 70s dewpoints) from the Gulf Coast to the GA/SC coast. Within this zone, strong to isolated severe storms capable of water-loaded downdrafts and some damaging wind potential are expected.
..Bentley.. 08/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Wednesday, August 26
Outlook Summary
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across the central High Plains, Ozarks into the Lower Mississippi Valley, and in the Midwest into the Great Lakes.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 240729
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS…THE OZARKS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY…AND THE MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
### SUMMARY
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across the central High Plains, Ozarks into the Lower Mississippi Valley, and in the Midwest into the Great Lakes.
Midwest into the Great Lakes
A mid-level shortwave trough will advance through the Great Lakes on Wednesday. A surface cold front will move southeastward through the period with thunderstorms developing along it by mid-afternoon. Upper 60 to low 70s dewpoints will result in moderate instability. Multicell clusters and perhaps a few supercells will be possible along and ahead of the cold front during the afternoon and into the evening. Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat. However, some low-level wind shear could result in a localized tornado threat with any supercells which develop.
Central High Plains
A weakening of the mid-level ridge will support scattered storm development within a weak upslope flow regime across eastern Colorado on Wednesday. These storms will form on the southwestern periphery of the stronger mid-level flow traversing the northeastern portion of the upper-level ridge. This may result in sufficient shear for a few south-southeasterly moving supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts.
Ozarks into the Lower Mississippi Valley
A weak surface low will drift slowly southeastward along a frontal boundary into the ArkLaTex on Wednesday. Strong heating is expected with temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s. This deeply-mixed and uncapped airmass will support scattered thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon. Northwesterly flow aloft is relatively weak (~20 knots). This will likely result in mostly unorganized storms with a few multicell clusters. Despite the relatively weak shear, the strong heating will support some damaging wind gusts.
..Bentley.. 08/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Thursday, August 27
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, August 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, August 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, August 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, August 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, August 31 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240859 SPC AC 240859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
A strong mid-level ridge will be centered over the Rockies on Thursday with a broad trough centered across the Great Lakes. The ridge will break down over the weekend with a more zonal flow with embedded shortwave troughs extending from the Northwest to the northern Plains and into the Northeast. Beyond this weekend, guidance differs on the evolution of the pattern with considerable uncertainty.
D7/Sunday to D8/Monday - Northern Plains
Guidance continues to consolidate around an unseasonably strong mid-level shortwave trough across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday and Monday. There is still some spread around the timing of this trough and also the degree of destabilization ahead of it. However, despite these timing differences, a moderately strong signal for an increasing severe weather threat in this period appears to be emerging as a trough with a consistent convective signal is shown by the ECMWF and GFS and also by the AI-GFS and AI-ECMWF. Ensemble guidance shows a flattened ridge with a mid-level jet streak across this region during the same timeframe. Surprisingly, AI/ML guidance shows very little signal for a severe threat across this region. Analysis of individual ensemble members suggests this is likely reflective of the uncertainty in timing and location of this trough and greater spread among the ensemble guidance. Nonetheless, the potential for an organized severe weather threat across the northern Plains and/or Upper Midwest late this weekend into early next week appears to be increasing. If guidance continues to consolidate with decreasing spread about the timing of the trough, severe weather probabilities may eventually be needed.
..Bentley.. 08/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, August 28
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, August 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, August 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, August 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, August 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, August 31 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240859 SPC AC 240859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
A strong mid-level ridge will be centered over the Rockies on Thursday with a broad trough centered across the Great Lakes. The ridge will break down over the weekend with a more zonal flow with embedded shortwave troughs extending from the Northwest to the northern Plains and into the Northeast. Beyond this weekend, guidance differs on the evolution of the pattern with considerable uncertainty.
D7/Sunday to D8/Monday - Northern Plains
Guidance continues to consolidate around an unseasonably strong mid-level shortwave trough across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday and Monday. There is still some spread around the timing of this trough and also the degree of destabilization ahead of it. However, despite these timing differences, a moderately strong signal for an increasing severe weather threat in this period appears to be emerging as a trough with a consistent convective signal is shown by the ECMWF and GFS and also by the AI-GFS and AI-ECMWF. Ensemble guidance shows a flattened ridge with a mid-level jet streak across this region during the same timeframe. Surprisingly, AI/ML guidance shows very little signal for a severe threat across this region. Analysis of individual ensemble members suggests this is likely reflective of the uncertainty in timing and location of this trough and greater spread among the ensemble guidance. Nonetheless, the potential for an organized severe weather threat across the northern Plains and/or Upper Midwest late this weekend into early next week appears to be increasing. If guidance continues to consolidate with decreasing spread about the timing of the trough, severe weather probabilities may eventually be needed.
..Bentley.. 08/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, August 29
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, August 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, August 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, August 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, August 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, August 31 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240859 SPC AC 240859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
A strong mid-level ridge will be centered over the Rockies on Thursday with a broad trough centered across the Great Lakes. The ridge will break down over the weekend with a more zonal flow with embedded shortwave troughs extending from the Northwest to the northern Plains and into the Northeast. Beyond this weekend, guidance differs on the evolution of the pattern with considerable uncertainty.
D7/Sunday to D8/Monday - Northern Plains
Guidance continues to consolidate around an unseasonably strong mid-level shortwave trough across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday and Monday. There is still some spread around the timing of this trough and also the degree of destabilization ahead of it. However, despite these timing differences, a moderately strong signal for an increasing severe weather threat in this period appears to be emerging as a trough with a consistent convective signal is shown by the ECMWF and GFS and also by the AI-GFS and AI-ECMWF. Ensemble guidance shows a flattened ridge with a mid-level jet streak across this region during the same timeframe. Surprisingly, AI/ML guidance shows very little signal for a severe threat across this region. Analysis of individual ensemble members suggests this is likely reflective of the uncertainty in timing and location of this trough and greater spread among the ensemble guidance. Nonetheless, the potential for an organized severe weather threat across the northern Plains and/or Upper Midwest late this weekend into early next week appears to be increasing. If guidance continues to consolidate with decreasing spread about the timing of the trough, severe weather probabilities may eventually be needed.
..Bentley.. 08/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, August 30
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, August 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, August 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, August 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, August 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, August 31 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240859 SPC AC 240859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
A strong mid-level ridge will be centered over the Rockies on Thursday with a broad trough centered across the Great Lakes. The ridge will break down over the weekend with a more zonal flow with embedded shortwave troughs extending from the Northwest to the northern Plains and into the Northeast. Beyond this weekend, guidance differs on the evolution of the pattern with considerable uncertainty.
D7/Sunday to D8/Monday - Northern Plains
Guidance continues to consolidate around an unseasonably strong mid-level shortwave trough across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday and Monday. There is still some spread around the timing of this trough and also the degree of destabilization ahead of it. However, despite these timing differences, a moderately strong signal for an increasing severe weather threat in this period appears to be emerging as a trough with a consistent convective signal is shown by the ECMWF and GFS and also by the AI-GFS and AI-ECMWF. Ensemble guidance shows a flattened ridge with a mid-level jet streak across this region during the same timeframe. Surprisingly, AI/ML guidance shows very little signal for a severe threat across this region. Analysis of individual ensemble members suggests this is likely reflective of the uncertainty in timing and location of this trough and greater spread among the ensemble guidance. Nonetheless, the potential for an organized severe weather threat across the northern Plains and/or Upper Midwest late this weekend into early next week appears to be increasing. If guidance continues to consolidate with decreasing spread about the timing of the trough, severe weather probabilities may eventually be needed.
..Bentley.. 08/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, August 31
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, August 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, August 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, August 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, August 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, August 31 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240859 SPC AC 240859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
A strong mid-level ridge will be centered over the Rockies on Thursday with a broad trough centered across the Great Lakes. The ridge will break down over the weekend with a more zonal flow with embedded shortwave troughs extending from the Northwest to the northern Plains and into the Northeast. Beyond this weekend, guidance differs on the evolution of the pattern with considerable uncertainty.
D7/Sunday to D8/Monday - Northern Plains
Guidance continues to consolidate around an unseasonably strong mid-level shortwave trough across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday and Monday. There is still some spread around the timing of this trough and also the degree of destabilization ahead of it. However, despite these timing differences, a moderately strong signal for an increasing severe weather threat in this period appears to be emerging as a trough with a consistent convective signal is shown by the ECMWF and GFS and also by the AI-GFS and AI-ECMWF. Ensemble guidance shows a flattened ridge with a mid-level jet streak across this region during the same timeframe. Surprisingly, AI/ML guidance shows very little signal for a severe threat across this region. Analysis of individual ensemble members suggests this is likely reflective of the uncertainty in timing and location of this trough and greater spread among the ensemble guidance. Nonetheless, the potential for an organized severe weather threat across the northern Plains and/or Upper Midwest late this weekend into early next week appears to be increasing. If guidance continues to consolidate with decreasing spread about the timing of the trough, severe weather probabilities may eventually be needed.
..Bentley.. 08/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, August 24
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Tuesday, August 25
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Wednesday, August 26
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Thursday, August 27
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, August 28
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, August 29
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, August 30
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, August 31
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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