Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, March 29
Outlook Summary
Isolated non-severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and evening across parts of Arizona, far southern Louisiana and in south Florida.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 291951
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026
Valid 292000Z - 301200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated non-severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and evening across parts of Arizona, far southern Louisiana and in south Florida.
20z
No changes were made to the prior outlook, see the previous discussion.
..Lyons.. 03/29/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026/
Synopsis
Zonal flow will prevail across much of the Lower 48 through tonight. Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a low-amplitude upper trough immediately west of the southern California and Baja California coasts moving east. This upper feature will probably lead to isolated thunderstorms later today over Arizona from the Mogollon Rim southward to the U.S.-Mexican border. A few weak thunderstorms will also be possible near a decaying front over south Florida through the late afternoon. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will influence weather conditions across much of the CONUS.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Monday, March 30
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the upper Mississippi River Valley to Lower Michigan late Monday night into early Tuesday morning.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 291717
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO LOWER MICHIGAN
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the upper Mississippi River Valley to Lower Michigan late Monday night into early Tuesday morning.
Synopsis and Discussion
A low-amplitude but intense shortwave trough will move across the northern Rockies during the day Monday, and will move into the northern Plains through 12Z Tuesday, with height falls arriving late into the upper MS Valley/Great Lakes.
At the surface, low pressure will develop over the northern plains during they day, and will move into IA/southwest WI area by Tuesday morning. East of the low, a quasi-stationary front will extend across WI and Lower MI, with mid to upper 50s F dewpoints to the south. Meanwhile, a cold front will move to a southeast MN to western KS line by 12Z Tuesday.
Though capping will inhibit development at least through 00Z, increasing theta-e advection along with the 40-50 kt 850 mb jet will lead to lift along/north of the stationary front, with isolated hail possible as far north as northern WI/Lower MI. Other isolated development may occur south of this boundary, depending on the degree of elevated CIN, from IA into IL. Hail would be the most likely threat.
Late in the period and into Tuesday morning, lift will be strongest near the surface low, and scattered storms producing both hail and locally damaging gusts will be possible given the dry sub-cloud layer and steep lapse rates aloft.
..Jewell.. 03/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Tuesday, March 31
Outlook Summary
Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are expected through the day and into the early evening hours Tuesday across parts of the Great Lakes/Midwest. Damaging gusts and hail are most likely. Isolated strong storms may also extend southwestward into parts of the southern Plains with localized hail/wind.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 291914
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN…AND FROM EASTERN ILLINOIS ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND OHIO
### SUMMARY
Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are expected through the day and into the early evening hours Tuesday across parts of the Great Lakes/Midwest. Damaging gusts and hail are most likely. Isolated strong storms may also extend southwestward into parts of the southern Plains with localized hail/wind.
Synopsis
A strong shortwave trough will move from the northern Plains across the Upper Great Lakes on Tuesday, with 50+ kt 500 mb winds extending as far south as IL/IN/OH. At the surface, low pressure will move across WI and Lower MI during the day, with a cold front extending southwestward from northern IN/IL into OK by 00Z. This front is forecast to proceed across NY and into PA overnight, trailing into the OH Valley at that time.
A broad fetch of moisture with 50s F to lower 60s F dewpoints is likely across the region ahead of the cold front, resulting in MUCAPE over 1000 J/kg. This will exist beneath moderately strong westerly winds aloft, aiding forward storm motion and shear. Storms forming along the front late in the afternoon and into the evening will be the primary focus for severe potential, though a daytime risk is also possible if early storms remain strong across WI.
From WI/IL into western NY/PA
Some uncertainty exist regarding storm evolution on Tuesday. Regardless, strong winds aloft along with areas of destabilization should support corridors of damaging wind potential, along with sporadic large hail.
On Tuesday morning, ongoing storms are expected over parts of WI, perhaps along or north of the east-west stationary front. This activity may be severe with damaging gusts or hail, and could persist into Lower MI. The amount of early storms may play a role in which areas experience a severe risk later in the day due to potential stabilizing outflows.
As the warm sector destabilizes further during the afternoon, storms are likely along the cold front, and perhaps near any leftover outflows from early day storms. Deep-layer mean wind speeds near 50 kt will support fast-moving storm complexes capable of damaging winds. Steep lapse rates aloft will favor hail production as well, although most of the shear will be in the lower 3 km. That said, mesoscale factors such as destabilization near any boundaries may conditionally support a tornado risk for rightward-propagating cells.
Southern KS into western OK
Strong heating will occur over the southern Plans, near and south of the cold front moving into northern OK. Forecast soundings indicate inhibition but lift along the front may yield a few cells capable of hail from the eastern TX Panhandle into perhaps far southern KS. This severe threat will likely be localized due to slow storm motions and modest shear.
..Jewell.. 03/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Wednesday, April 1
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, April 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, April 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, April 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, April 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, April 5 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290845 SPC AC 290845
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
A more seasonal synoptic regime is expected over the CONUS through the upcoming week as long-wave troughing slowly becomes established over the western two-thirds of the country. This will favor lee cyclone development and poleward moisture return ahead of occasional frontal intrusions. In general, ensemble consensus is that a leading, low-amplitude upper disturbance will propagate across the central CONUS during the D4/Wednesday to D5/Thursday period before a more amplified upper trough migrates into the Plains during the D6/Friday to D7/Saturday time frame. While there is broad agreement in this pattern among most guidance, notable discrepancies and spread among solutions limits confidence in the location, timing, or magnitude of any severe threat.
D4/Wednesday - Southern Plains
A cold front pushing east/southeast across the central U.S. on Tuesday is forecast to stall across the southern Plains into the OH Valley by Wednesday. Aloft, ascent associated with the leading upper disturbance will overspread TX/OK, leading to modest surface low development along the stalled frontal boundary. Continued moisture return coupled with easterly advection of steep mid-level lapse rates will likely yield a reservoir of buoyancy across portions of central/eastern TX/OK and into AR/LA. Thunderstorm development along the frontal zone appears probable by late afternoon, and 40-50 knot mid-level flow attendant to the wave should provide adequate wind shear for organized storms. However, guidance continues to show variability with frontal placement and is likely displaying a northward bias given the tendency for long-range guidance to underestimate low-level cold advection. Additionally, it is unclear whether storm motions and deep-layer shear vectors will be favorably oriented to the front to support discrete convection and a more robust severe threat.
D6/Friday and D7/Saturday - Southern Plains to the Ohio Valley
More intense surface low development is anticipated across the southern Plains and Great Lakes region Friday into Saturday as an more amplified upper wave begins to migrate east. Northward moisture return will likely continue through Friday with thunderstorm development possible in vicinity to the deepening lee cyclone. Although model variability remains fairly high at this range, ensemble guidance does show a modest QPF signal across OK/KS where the probability for adequate SBCAPE and deep-layer shear for organized convection is reasonably high.
On Saturday, the ejection of the upper wave into the Plains will result in the northeastward acceleration of the lee cyclone. Rapid moisture return within a strengthening low-level wind field is possible as the low reaches the Great Lakes region by late Saturday. Based on forecast soundings and ensemble QPF signals, some severe thunderstorm potential is noted along and ahead of a cold front attendant to the low. However, high variability among guidance over the past 24 hours and the potential for a sub-optimal displacement of the primary upper jet with the expanding warm sector casts considerable uncertainty on the overall severe threat.
..Moore.. 03/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, April 2
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, April 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, April 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, April 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, April 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, April 5 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290845 SPC AC 290845
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
A more seasonal synoptic regime is expected over the CONUS through the upcoming week as long-wave troughing slowly becomes established over the western two-thirds of the country. This will favor lee cyclone development and poleward moisture return ahead of occasional frontal intrusions. In general, ensemble consensus is that a leading, low-amplitude upper disturbance will propagate across the central CONUS during the D4/Wednesday to D5/Thursday period before a more amplified upper trough migrates into the Plains during the D6/Friday to D7/Saturday time frame. While there is broad agreement in this pattern among most guidance, notable discrepancies and spread among solutions limits confidence in the location, timing, or magnitude of any severe threat.
D4/Wednesday - Southern Plains
A cold front pushing east/southeast across the central U.S. on Tuesday is forecast to stall across the southern Plains into the OH Valley by Wednesday. Aloft, ascent associated with the leading upper disturbance will overspread TX/OK, leading to modest surface low development along the stalled frontal boundary. Continued moisture return coupled with easterly advection of steep mid-level lapse rates will likely yield a reservoir of buoyancy across portions of central/eastern TX/OK and into AR/LA. Thunderstorm development along the frontal zone appears probable by late afternoon, and 40-50 knot mid-level flow attendant to the wave should provide adequate wind shear for organized storms. However, guidance continues to show variability with frontal placement and is likely displaying a northward bias given the tendency for long-range guidance to underestimate low-level cold advection. Additionally, it is unclear whether storm motions and deep-layer shear vectors will be favorably oriented to the front to support discrete convection and a more robust severe threat.
D6/Friday and D7/Saturday - Southern Plains to the Ohio Valley
More intense surface low development is anticipated across the southern Plains and Great Lakes region Friday into Saturday as an more amplified upper wave begins to migrate east. Northward moisture return will likely continue through Friday with thunderstorm development possible in vicinity to the deepening lee cyclone. Although model variability remains fairly high at this range, ensemble guidance does show a modest QPF signal across OK/KS where the probability for adequate SBCAPE and deep-layer shear for organized convection is reasonably high.
On Saturday, the ejection of the upper wave into the Plains will result in the northeastward acceleration of the lee cyclone. Rapid moisture return within a strengthening low-level wind field is possible as the low reaches the Great Lakes region by late Saturday. Based on forecast soundings and ensemble QPF signals, some severe thunderstorm potential is noted along and ahead of a cold front attendant to the low. However, high variability among guidance over the past 24 hours and the potential for a sub-optimal displacement of the primary upper jet with the expanding warm sector casts considerable uncertainty on the overall severe threat.
..Moore.. 03/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, April 3
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, April 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, April 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, April 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, April 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, April 5 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290845 SPC AC 290845
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
A more seasonal synoptic regime is expected over the CONUS through the upcoming week as long-wave troughing slowly becomes established over the western two-thirds of the country. This will favor lee cyclone development and poleward moisture return ahead of occasional frontal intrusions. In general, ensemble consensus is that a leading, low-amplitude upper disturbance will propagate across the central CONUS during the D4/Wednesday to D5/Thursday period before a more amplified upper trough migrates into the Plains during the D6/Friday to D7/Saturday time frame. While there is broad agreement in this pattern among most guidance, notable discrepancies and spread among solutions limits confidence in the location, timing, or magnitude of any severe threat.
D4/Wednesday - Southern Plains
A cold front pushing east/southeast across the central U.S. on Tuesday is forecast to stall across the southern Plains into the OH Valley by Wednesday. Aloft, ascent associated with the leading upper disturbance will overspread TX/OK, leading to modest surface low development along the stalled frontal boundary. Continued moisture return coupled with easterly advection of steep mid-level lapse rates will likely yield a reservoir of buoyancy across portions of central/eastern TX/OK and into AR/LA. Thunderstorm development along the frontal zone appears probable by late afternoon, and 40-50 knot mid-level flow attendant to the wave should provide adequate wind shear for organized storms. However, guidance continues to show variability with frontal placement and is likely displaying a northward bias given the tendency for long-range guidance to underestimate low-level cold advection. Additionally, it is unclear whether storm motions and deep-layer shear vectors will be favorably oriented to the front to support discrete convection and a more robust severe threat.
D6/Friday and D7/Saturday - Southern Plains to the Ohio Valley
More intense surface low development is anticipated across the southern Plains and Great Lakes region Friday into Saturday as an more amplified upper wave begins to migrate east. Northward moisture return will likely continue through Friday with thunderstorm development possible in vicinity to the deepening lee cyclone. Although model variability remains fairly high at this range, ensemble guidance does show a modest QPF signal across OK/KS where the probability for adequate SBCAPE and deep-layer shear for organized convection is reasonably high.
On Saturday, the ejection of the upper wave into the Plains will result in the northeastward acceleration of the lee cyclone. Rapid moisture return within a strengthening low-level wind field is possible as the low reaches the Great Lakes region by late Saturday. Based on forecast soundings and ensemble QPF signals, some severe thunderstorm potential is noted along and ahead of a cold front attendant to the low. However, high variability among guidance over the past 24 hours and the potential for a sub-optimal displacement of the primary upper jet with the expanding warm sector casts considerable uncertainty on the overall severe threat.
..Moore.. 03/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, April 4
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, April 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, April 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, April 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, April 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, April 5 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290845 SPC AC 290845
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
A more seasonal synoptic regime is expected over the CONUS through the upcoming week as long-wave troughing slowly becomes established over the western two-thirds of the country. This will favor lee cyclone development and poleward moisture return ahead of occasional frontal intrusions. In general, ensemble consensus is that a leading, low-amplitude upper disturbance will propagate across the central CONUS during the D4/Wednesday to D5/Thursday period before a more amplified upper trough migrates into the Plains during the D6/Friday to D7/Saturday time frame. While there is broad agreement in this pattern among most guidance, notable discrepancies and spread among solutions limits confidence in the location, timing, or magnitude of any severe threat.
D4/Wednesday - Southern Plains
A cold front pushing east/southeast across the central U.S. on Tuesday is forecast to stall across the southern Plains into the OH Valley by Wednesday. Aloft, ascent associated with the leading upper disturbance will overspread TX/OK, leading to modest surface low development along the stalled frontal boundary. Continued moisture return coupled with easterly advection of steep mid-level lapse rates will likely yield a reservoir of buoyancy across portions of central/eastern TX/OK and into AR/LA. Thunderstorm development along the frontal zone appears probable by late afternoon, and 40-50 knot mid-level flow attendant to the wave should provide adequate wind shear for organized storms. However, guidance continues to show variability with frontal placement and is likely displaying a northward bias given the tendency for long-range guidance to underestimate low-level cold advection. Additionally, it is unclear whether storm motions and deep-layer shear vectors will be favorably oriented to the front to support discrete convection and a more robust severe threat.
D6/Friday and D7/Saturday - Southern Plains to the Ohio Valley
More intense surface low development is anticipated across the southern Plains and Great Lakes region Friday into Saturday as an more amplified upper wave begins to migrate east. Northward moisture return will likely continue through Friday with thunderstorm development possible in vicinity to the deepening lee cyclone. Although model variability remains fairly high at this range, ensemble guidance does show a modest QPF signal across OK/KS where the probability for adequate SBCAPE and deep-layer shear for organized convection is reasonably high.
On Saturday, the ejection of the upper wave into the Plains will result in the northeastward acceleration of the lee cyclone. Rapid moisture return within a strengthening low-level wind field is possible as the low reaches the Great Lakes region by late Saturday. Based on forecast soundings and ensemble QPF signals, some severe thunderstorm potential is noted along and ahead of a cold front attendant to the low. However, high variability among guidance over the past 24 hours and the potential for a sub-optimal displacement of the primary upper jet with the expanding warm sector casts considerable uncertainty on the overall severe threat.
..Moore.. 03/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, April 5
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, April 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, April 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, April 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, April 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, April 5 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290845 SPC AC 290845
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
A more seasonal synoptic regime is expected over the CONUS through the upcoming week as long-wave troughing slowly becomes established over the western two-thirds of the country. This will favor lee cyclone development and poleward moisture return ahead of occasional frontal intrusions. In general, ensemble consensus is that a leading, low-amplitude upper disturbance will propagate across the central CONUS during the D4/Wednesday to D5/Thursday period before a more amplified upper trough migrates into the Plains during the D6/Friday to D7/Saturday time frame. While there is broad agreement in this pattern among most guidance, notable discrepancies and spread among solutions limits confidence in the location, timing, or magnitude of any severe threat.
D4/Wednesday - Southern Plains
A cold front pushing east/southeast across the central U.S. on Tuesday is forecast to stall across the southern Plains into the OH Valley by Wednesday. Aloft, ascent associated with the leading upper disturbance will overspread TX/OK, leading to modest surface low development along the stalled frontal boundary. Continued moisture return coupled with easterly advection of steep mid-level lapse rates will likely yield a reservoir of buoyancy across portions of central/eastern TX/OK and into AR/LA. Thunderstorm development along the frontal zone appears probable by late afternoon, and 40-50 knot mid-level flow attendant to the wave should provide adequate wind shear for organized storms. However, guidance continues to show variability with frontal placement and is likely displaying a northward bias given the tendency for long-range guidance to underestimate low-level cold advection. Additionally, it is unclear whether storm motions and deep-layer shear vectors will be favorably oriented to the front to support discrete convection and a more robust severe threat.
D6/Friday and D7/Saturday - Southern Plains to the Ohio Valley
More intense surface low development is anticipated across the southern Plains and Great Lakes region Friday into Saturday as an more amplified upper wave begins to migrate east. Northward moisture return will likely continue through Friday with thunderstorm development possible in vicinity to the deepening lee cyclone. Although model variability remains fairly high at this range, ensemble guidance does show a modest QPF signal across OK/KS where the probability for adequate SBCAPE and deep-layer shear for organized convection is reasonably high.
On Saturday, the ejection of the upper wave into the Plains will result in the northeastward acceleration of the lee cyclone. Rapid moisture return within a strengthening low-level wind field is possible as the low reaches the Great Lakes region by late Saturday. Based on forecast soundings and ensemble QPF signals, some severe thunderstorm potential is noted along and ahead of a cold front attendant to the low. However, high variability among guidance over the past 24 hours and the potential for a sub-optimal displacement of the primary upper jet with the expanding warm sector casts considerable uncertainty on the overall severe threat.
..Moore.. 03/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, March 29
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Monday, March 30
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Tuesday, March 31
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Wednesday, April 1
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, April 2
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, April 3
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, April 4
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, April 5
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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