Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, November 7
Outlook Summary
Isolated damaging gusts may occur along the immediate northwest Washington coast late this evening into tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 071950
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Sat Nov 07 2026
Valid 072000Z - 081200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
### SUMMARY
Isolated damaging gusts may occur along the immediate northwest Washington coast late this evening into tonight.
20z Update
No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information.
..Halbert-E.. 11/07/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Sat Nov 07 2026/
Synopsis
Within the primary northern stream, embedded shortwave troughs will move from the lower Great Lakes to New England and to the Pacific Northwest coast, respectively. Weak buoyancy rooted close to 850 mb could support isolated lightning flashes in the zone of ascent across southern and eastern Maine. A strong shortwave trough and associated cold front will reach the WA coast late this evening/early tonight, with strong winds near 100 kt in the mid levels and 55-70 kt close to 850 mb. A forced frontal rain band is a possibility late this evening with the potential for strong gusts to mix down to the surface within the band. After frontal passage, weak buoyancy will develop in the steeper lapse rate environment, where isolated lightning flashes will be possible with low-topped convection. There is enough convective wind potential along the immediate northwest WA coast to justify an addition of a 5% wind/MRGL area.
Otherwise, the potential for occasional elevated thunderstorms (rooted near 700 mb) will continue across the Rio Grande Valley in TX. Convection rooted near the surface will be possible across deep South TX per the 12z BRO sounding. While a bit of an increase in deep-layer vertical shear is expected later today, poor lapse rate profiles and low-level vertical shear suggest little threat for organized severe storms. Farther east, isolated convective showers will be possible across southeast FL along a diffuse frontal zone, though minimal forcing for ascent and the potential for substantial dry entrainment in the mid levels will limit any thunderstorm potential.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Sunday, November 8
Outlook Summary
There appears little risk for severe thunderstorm activity across the U.S. Sunday through Sunday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 071659
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CST Sat Nov 07 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
There appears little risk for severe thunderstorm activity across the U.S. Sunday through Sunday night.
Discussion
Within one branch of split westerlies emanating from the eastern Pacific, models indicate that mid-level ridging across the Intermountain West will broaden eastward across the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley through this period. As it does, an increasingly sheared mid-level low within a branch to the south may only slowly redevelop east-northeastward across the northern Mexican Plateau, toward the Texas Big Bend vicinity Sunday through Sunday night.
In higher latitudes, it appears that larger-scale mid-level troughing will continue to evolve and be maintained across southeastern Canada and the Northeast, with one notable embedded short wave trough forecast to pivot north-northeastward from offshore of the New England coast through the Canadian Maritimes, while a significant upstream perturbation digs from near/north of the upper Great Lakes region toward the northern Atlantic Seaboard. A trailing short wave trough is forecast to continue inland across the Canadian Rockies and Prairies.
In the wake of an initial developing surface cyclone associated with the Northeastern mid-level troughing, a couple of reinforcing intrusions of cool/dry air will continue to overspread much of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes/Northeast and Mid Atlantic, behind a weakening lead frontal zone across the Florida Peninsula and Gulf Basin.
Southern Texas
Southeasterly low-level flow along the slowing/stalling surface front will maintain relatively high moisture content in a corridor along and east of the Rio Grande Valley vicinity Sunday. With the approach of the remnant mid-level cyclonic circulation, forcing for ascent and destabilization supported by differential thermal advection will maintain an environment conducive to occasional scattered thunderstorm development. Even with at least some mid-level cooling and drying possible by late afternoon, thermodynamic profiles still appear unlikely to become supportive of an appreciable risk for severe hail and/or wind. But, this will continue to be evaluated in later outlooks for this period.
Pacific Northwest
Latest model output suggests that an environment conducive to a risk for convection capable of producing lightning (including strong, moist low-level onshore flow beneath cool mid-levels) may be maintained into the 15-18Z time frame Sunday morning.
Lower Great Lakes vicinity
Models suggest that mid-level cooling accompanying the digging short wave trough will contribute to destabilization and occasional scattered showers late Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. By late Sunday night, particularly near the southern lake shores to the north of the Rochester and Syracuse vicinity, in association with the mid-level cold core (-26 to -28C around 500 mb), this may include some risk for weak thunderstorm activity. However, due to the probable short-lived and isolated nature of this risk, thunderstorm probabilities will be maintained at less than 10 percent.
..Kerr.. 11/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Monday, November 9
Outlook Summary
There appears little risk for severe thunderstorms across the U.S. Monday through Monday night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 071920
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Sat Nov 07 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
There appears little risk for severe thunderstorms across the U.S. Monday through Monday night.
Discussion
An initially strong, zonal mid/upper jet across the mid-latitude Pacific is forecast to trend more amplified Monday through Monday night, with split downstream flow inland across the Pacific coast trending more confluent east of the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard. Within an evolving branch across the subtropical latitudes, it appears that a remnant cyclonic mid-level circulation will continue to become increasingly sheared across and east-northeast of the Texas Big Bend vicinity. Upstream, models suggest that one or two perturbations emerging from the mid- and subtropical eastern Pacific also will undergo considerable deformation, while progressing inland within building larger-scale ridging.
Southern Texas
Potential for scattered thunderstorm activity, largely supported by forcing for ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection downstream of the weakening mid-level perturbation, may continue into the day Monday, before tending to diminish Monday afternoon into evening.
Pacific Northwest
REFS calibrated thunderstorm guidance suggests potential for scattered thunderstorm development inland of at least the Oregon coast into Cascades by late Monday afternoon. This would likely accompany destabilization beneath a relatively modest inland progressing thermal trough (including 500 mb temperatures of around -18 to -20C). RRFS forecast soundings do indicate the development of weak CAPE, but the extent to which thermodynamic profiles become supportive of lightning discharge remains unclear. At this time, probabilities for thunderstorm initiation still appear negligible (i.e., less than 10 percent).
..Kerr.. 11/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Tuesday, November 10
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, November 10 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, November 11 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, November 13 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, November 14 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070938 SPC AC 070938
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CST Sat Nov 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
During the mid-week, a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the western and central Gulf Coast, where a moist airmass will likely be in place. Thunderstorm development will be possible near the coasts of Texas and Louisiana from Tuesday into Wednesday. On Thursday, thunderstorm development will be possible in parts of the eastern U.S, ahead of a deepening upper-level trough. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. from Tuesday to Thursday.
On Friday and Saturday, dry and cool air associated with high pressure is forecast to dominate the central and eastern U.S., which will likely limit thunderstorm potential over most of the U.S.
..Broyles.. 11/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, November 11
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, November 10 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, November 11 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, November 13 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, November 14 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070938 SPC AC 070938
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CST Sat Nov 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
During the mid-week, a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the western and central Gulf Coast, where a moist airmass will likely be in place. Thunderstorm development will be possible near the coasts of Texas and Louisiana from Tuesday into Wednesday. On Thursday, thunderstorm development will be possible in parts of the eastern U.S, ahead of a deepening upper-level trough. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. from Tuesday to Thursday.
On Friday and Saturday, dry and cool air associated with high pressure is forecast to dominate the central and eastern U.S., which will likely limit thunderstorm potential over most of the U.S.
..Broyles.. 11/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, November 12
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, November 10 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, November 11 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, November 13 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, November 14 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070938 SPC AC 070938
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CST Sat Nov 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
During the mid-week, a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the western and central Gulf Coast, where a moist airmass will likely be in place. Thunderstorm development will be possible near the coasts of Texas and Louisiana from Tuesday into Wednesday. On Thursday, thunderstorm development will be possible in parts of the eastern U.S, ahead of a deepening upper-level trough. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. from Tuesday to Thursday.
On Friday and Saturday, dry and cool air associated with high pressure is forecast to dominate the central and eastern U.S., which will likely limit thunderstorm potential over most of the U.S.
..Broyles.. 11/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, November 13
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, November 10 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, November 11 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, November 13 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, November 14 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070938 SPC AC 070938
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CST Sat Nov 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
During the mid-week, a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the western and central Gulf Coast, where a moist airmass will likely be in place. Thunderstorm development will be possible near the coasts of Texas and Louisiana from Tuesday into Wednesday. On Thursday, thunderstorm development will be possible in parts of the eastern U.S, ahead of a deepening upper-level trough. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. from Tuesday to Thursday.
On Friday and Saturday, dry and cool air associated with high pressure is forecast to dominate the central and eastern U.S., which will likely limit thunderstorm potential over most of the U.S.
..Broyles.. 11/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, November 14
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, November 10 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, November 11 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, November 13 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, November 14 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070938 SPC AC 070938
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CST Sat Nov 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
During the mid-week, a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the western and central Gulf Coast, where a moist airmass will likely be in place. Thunderstorm development will be possible near the coasts of Texas and Louisiana from Tuesday into Wednesday. On Thursday, thunderstorm development will be possible in parts of the eastern U.S, ahead of a deepening upper-level trough. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. from Tuesday to Thursday.
On Friday and Saturday, dry and cool air associated with high pressure is forecast to dominate the central and eastern U.S., which will likely limit thunderstorm potential over most of the U.S.
..Broyles.. 11/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, November 7
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Sunday, November 8
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Monday, November 9
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Tuesday, November 10
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, November 11
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, November 12
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, November 13
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, November 14
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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