Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, September 6
Outlook Summary
Widely scattered damaging wind gusts are likely across portions of the Southeast this afternoon and early evening. Widely scattered large hail occurrences are expected across portions of western and central Montana this afternoon and evening. Additional areas at risk for isolated severe wind and hail are parts of the Interior West, over the northern and central High Plains, and from the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota into the Ozark Plateau and Gulf Coast states.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 061251
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Sun Sep 06 2026
Valid 061300Z - 071200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY…AND OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MONTANA
### SUMMARY
Widely scattered damaging wind gusts are likely across portions of the Southeast this afternoon and early evening. Widely scattered large hail occurrences are expected across portions of western and central Montana this afternoon and evening. Additional areas at risk for isolated severe wind and hail are parts of the Interior West, over the northern and central High Plains, and from the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota into the Ozark Plateau and Gulf Coast states.
Southern Appalachians through coastal SC and GA
A moist airmass is in place across the region this morning, with recent surface analysis revealing a reservoir of low to mid 70s dewpoints. Strong heating is anticipated across this region today, with afternoon temperatures reaching the low to mid 90s. This strong heating will destabilize the airmass and contribute to moderate/strong buoyancy, with MLCAPE around 2000-2500 J/kg likely during the late afternoon. A subtle shortwave trough will progress through the northwesterly flow aloft extending over the area, interacting with this destabilized airmass to support thunderstorm development. Vertical shear will generally be weak, limiting updraft organization and promoting a predominantly outflow-dominant storm mode. Even so, steep low-level lapse rates and abundant moisture will promote the potential for damaging wind gusts with any longer-lived multi-cells or line segments. Updraft augmentation due to storm interactions could also result in isolated hail.
Ozark Plateau into the Gulf Coast States
A corridor of greater low-level moisture arcs from the Southeast states through Arkansas and Missouri. Daytime heating will destabilize this airmass, helping to support thunderstorm development in areas of low-level confluence. Weak forcing for ascent and vertical shear are expected to limit storm organization. However, the degree of instability will support briefly intense pulse-type storms capable of locally damaging wet microbursts during the afternoon and early evening hours.
Eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota into the lower Missouri Valley
A linear MCS continues to push eastward across the central Plains this morning. A notable vorticity maximum has developed within the northern portion of this line. Its motion appears to be more northeasterly than the line itself, and new development is occurring downstream of this vorticity maximum across south-central/southeast SD and adjacent northeast NE. A corridor of relatively greater low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the low 70s) exists downstream of this vorticity maximum and attendant MCS from eastern SD through western IA and into northern MO. General expectation is for thunderstorm coverage and intensity to increase later this morning/early afternoon as the vorticity maximum/remnant MCS interact with this moist and diurnally destabilizing airmass. Much of this development is expected to occur along or to the immediate cool side of the surface boundary that extends through portions of the middle and lower MO Valley. Occasionally strong updrafts could result in isolated hail and/or damaging gusts, but the weak mid-level flow and associated modest deep-layer shear should limit storm organization and contribute to clustered multicellular mode.
Northern Plains into the northern/central High Plains
Modest height falls may begin to impinge on northern/central High Plains during the early evening as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves a belt of stronger southwesterlies just west of the region. This modest ascent will augment low-level convergence along the lee trough to support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development where the lingering convective inhibition can be overcome. This appears most likely across southeast WY and northeast CO where persistent low-level easterly flow could keep dewpoints in the 60s. High-based, outflow-dominant storms will support the potential for isolated strong to severe gusts.
Increasing mid-level flow will support stronger deep-layer vertical shear farther north (into eastern MT and western ND), but stronger convective inhibition may linger, casting doubt whether storms will initiate. If initiation is realized, storm motion could take it into the more moist and buoyant airmass north of the surface low where thermodynamic profiles are favorable for large to very large hail. Will maintain 5% wind/hail probabilities but introduce a CIG1 for hail given the conditional potential.
Northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies
Increasing height falls and strengthening mid/upper-level flow will spread across the region today ahead of a vigorous shortwave trough pivoting through the base of a Pacific Northwest upper low. Thunderstorm development is anticipated over the higher terrain before then progressing northeastward towards lower elevations. Deep-layer vertical shear of 40 to 50 kt will support supercells, with large hail as the primary severe risk. Greater buoyancy is expected across central MT, but low-level stability will likely persist across this region as well, potentially limiting the severe-wind and tornado potential.
Weaker instability is forecast from northeast NV and northern UT into central and eastern ID. However, the presence of steep lapse rates and kinematics mentioned above may yield a few severe storms capable of severe wind gusts.
..Mosier/Lyons.. 09/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Monday, September 7
Outlook Summary
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern and central Plains into Minnesota on Monday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 060510
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 AM CDT Sun Sep 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST
### SUMMARY
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern and central Plains into Minnesota on Monday.
Northern Plains to Upper Midwest
An upper shortwave trough will develop eastward from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains on Monday. This will break down the upper ridge across the region, shifting it eastward toward the Great Lakes. At this occurs, strengthening mid/upper southwesterly flow will overspread the Plains. Southerly low-level winds will maintain a corridor of 60s to near 70 F dewpoints ahead of a surface low lifting northeast across the Dakotas. Warmer midlevel temperatures may result in capping for much of the day. However, as the upper trough approaching cooling aloft and increasing large-scale ascent should erode inhibition by late afternoon. Vertically veering wind profiles will foster effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt. Isolated to widely scattered storms will pose a risk for large hail and locally damaging gusts.
A south/southwest low-level jet is forecast to increase during the evening. Though nocturnal cooling will resulting in increase inhibition after dark, warm advection aided by the strengthening low-level jet may result in one or more clusters of strong storms across the eastern portions of the Dakotas/Nebraska and into MN during the nighttime hours. It is uncertain if sufficient instability will persist overnight to support severe convection, but given the strength of mid/upper flow, some risk for damaging wind gusts could persist overnight.
..Leitman.. 09/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Tuesday, September 8
Outlook Summary
Strong to severe storms are possible on Tuesday from Nebraska into the Upper Midwest.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 060621
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 AM CDT Sun Sep 06 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEBRASKA TO THE UPPER MIDWEST
### SUMMARY
Strong to severe storms are possible on Tuesday from Nebraska into the Upper Midwest.
Central Plains to Upper Midwest
An upper trough will move from the northern Plains to the Great Lakes on Tuesday. As this occurs, a swath of enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the Upper Midwest. At the surface, low pressure over Manitoba will continue east/northeast through the period, with a trailing cold front sweeping east across the northern/central Plains and Upper MS Valley. A moist airmass will be in place ahead of the front, and weak to moderate destabilization is forecast. Deep-layer flow will largely remain parallel to the surface boundary, but sufficient shear will be present for some storm organization. The north and east extent of severe potential is a bit uncertain given concern over inhibition/timing and modest instability. However, given the strength of deep-layer southwesterly flow, some severe risk should extend along the length of the surface front from the Upper Midwest into the central Plains. Damaging wind and hail will be the primary concern with this activity from late afternoon into the nighttime hours.
..Leitman.. 09/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Wednesday, September 9
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, September 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, September 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, September 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, September 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060749 SPC AC 060749
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 AM CDT Sun Sep 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper shortwave trough will move from the Great Lakes and over the Northeast through Day 5/Thursday. As this occurs, a cold front will develop southeast and east across much of the Midwest and Northeast. Some strong to severe thunderstorm potential could develop near the front, especially on Wednesday across parts of the Midwest. However, deep-layer flow will largely remain parallel to the boundary and stronger flow aloft will remain displaced to the north of better instability.
Lower amplitude westerly upper-level flow is expected on Day 6/Friday before another upper trough digs southeast across the western U.S. and emerges into the Plains by Day 8/Sunday. Some severe potential could return to the Plains during the weekend as low-level moisture returns across the region and lee cyclogenesis occurs with the approach of the late-period upper trough. Trends will be monitored and probabilities may become necessary across parts of the central Plains vicinity if confidence in severe potential increase.
..Leitman.. 09/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, September 10
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, September 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, September 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, September 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, September 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060749 SPC AC 060749
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 AM CDT Sun Sep 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper shortwave trough will move from the Great Lakes and over the Northeast through Day 5/Thursday. As this occurs, a cold front will develop southeast and east across much of the Midwest and Northeast. Some strong to severe thunderstorm potential could develop near the front, especially on Wednesday across parts of the Midwest. However, deep-layer flow will largely remain parallel to the boundary and stronger flow aloft will remain displaced to the north of better instability.
Lower amplitude westerly upper-level flow is expected on Day 6/Friday before another upper trough digs southeast across the western U.S. and emerges into the Plains by Day 8/Sunday. Some severe potential could return to the Plains during the weekend as low-level moisture returns across the region and lee cyclogenesis occurs with the approach of the late-period upper trough. Trends will be monitored and probabilities may become necessary across parts of the central Plains vicinity if confidence in severe potential increase.
..Leitman.. 09/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, September 11
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, September 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, September 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, September 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, September 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060749 SPC AC 060749
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 AM CDT Sun Sep 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper shortwave trough will move from the Great Lakes and over the Northeast through Day 5/Thursday. As this occurs, a cold front will develop southeast and east across much of the Midwest and Northeast. Some strong to severe thunderstorm potential could develop near the front, especially on Wednesday across parts of the Midwest. However, deep-layer flow will largely remain parallel to the boundary and stronger flow aloft will remain displaced to the north of better instability.
Lower amplitude westerly upper-level flow is expected on Day 6/Friday before another upper trough digs southeast across the western U.S. and emerges into the Plains by Day 8/Sunday. Some severe potential could return to the Plains during the weekend as low-level moisture returns across the region and lee cyclogenesis occurs with the approach of the late-period upper trough. Trends will be monitored and probabilities may become necessary across parts of the central Plains vicinity if confidence in severe potential increase.
..Leitman.. 09/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, September 12
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, September 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, September 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, September 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, September 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060749 SPC AC 060749
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 AM CDT Sun Sep 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper shortwave trough will move from the Great Lakes and over the Northeast through Day 5/Thursday. As this occurs, a cold front will develop southeast and east across much of the Midwest and Northeast. Some strong to severe thunderstorm potential could develop near the front, especially on Wednesday across parts of the Midwest. However, deep-layer flow will largely remain parallel to the boundary and stronger flow aloft will remain displaced to the north of better instability.
Lower amplitude westerly upper-level flow is expected on Day 6/Friday before another upper trough digs southeast across the western U.S. and emerges into the Plains by Day 8/Sunday. Some severe potential could return to the Plains during the weekend as low-level moisture returns across the region and lee cyclogenesis occurs with the approach of the late-period upper trough. Trends will be monitored and probabilities may become necessary across parts of the central Plains vicinity if confidence in severe potential increase.
..Leitman.. 09/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, September 13
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, September 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, September 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, September 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, September 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060749 SPC AC 060749
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 AM CDT Sun Sep 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper shortwave trough will move from the Great Lakes and over the Northeast through Day 5/Thursday. As this occurs, a cold front will develop southeast and east across much of the Midwest and Northeast. Some strong to severe thunderstorm potential could develop near the front, especially on Wednesday across parts of the Midwest. However, deep-layer flow will largely remain parallel to the boundary and stronger flow aloft will remain displaced to the north of better instability.
Lower amplitude westerly upper-level flow is expected on Day 6/Friday before another upper trough digs southeast across the western U.S. and emerges into the Plains by Day 8/Sunday. Some severe potential could return to the Plains during the weekend as low-level moisture returns across the region and lee cyclogenesis occurs with the approach of the late-period upper trough. Trends will be monitored and probabilities may become necessary across parts of the central Plains vicinity if confidence in severe potential increase.
..Leitman.. 09/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, September 6
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Monday, September 7
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Tuesday, September 8
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Wednesday, September 9
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, September 10
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, September 11
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, September 12
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, September 13
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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