Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, March 23
Outlook Summary
Isolated thunderstorms are possible today from southeast Georgia to the coastal Carolinas.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 231951
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026
Valid 232000Z - 241200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated thunderstorms are possible today from southeast Georgia to the coastal Carolinas.
Synopsis
Minimal changes were made to the thunder area over parts of the Carolinas given the latest frontal position. Weak destabilization has occurred over parts of the eastern Carolinas amid strong diurnal heating of a modestly moist air mass. A strong storm or two remains possible this afternoon ahead of the front beneath enhanced mid-level flow. However, the coverage and duration of any stronger storms appears limited. See the prior outlook for more info.
..Lyons.. 03/23/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026/
Coastal Carolinas/Georgia
A large upper trough continues to track eastward across the lower Great Lakes and into New England today, while the associated surface cold front sags across the southeast states. As the front approaches the more moist and marginally unstable offshore air mass, showers and a few thunderstorms will become more numerous. This process will occur late this afternoon, and might result in a strong storm or two along the immediate coast of NC before activity moves out to sea. Small hail or gusty winds are possible, but the overall severe threat seems too low to warrant probabilities at this time.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Tuesday, March 24
Outlook Summary
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday across the central and north Florida.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 231728
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday across the central and north Florida.
Synopsis
A surface cold front, now approaching the Piedmont, will move southward into FL and stall by Tuesday afternoon. Daytime heating/mixing along the stalled front, as well as local sea breeze circulations, will support the potential for widely scattered thunderstorms across central/north FL during the afternoon/evening. This area will be along the southern fringe of the stronger westerly flow aloft, and the combination of buoyancy and vertical shear does not appear favorable for severe storms.
Otherwise, a midlevel shortwave trough will move over Vancouver/WA Tuesday into Tuesday night. Weak buoyancy rooted aloft will be possible in the warm advection zone preceding the midlevel trough, and steepening low-level lapse rates will allow shallow buoyancy in the post-frontal environment late in the forecast period. Isolated lightning flashes could occur and this area will be re-examined in later outlook updates.
..Thompson.. 03/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Wednesday, March 25
Outlook Summary
Severe storms are not expected through Wednesday night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 231925
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe storms are not expected through Wednesday night.
Synopsis
To the north of a strong midlevel high over the southern Rockies, a shortwave trough will move inland over WA during the day and progress quickly eastward to MN/western ON by early Thursday. Cyclogenesis in advance of this midlevel trough will help draw a modifying air mass north and northeastward from the southern Plains to the mid MS Valley. Overnight Wednesday into early Thursday, moistening near/above the surface could be sufficient for elevated convection in a warm advection zone across parts of the Midwest.
Elsewhere, a few thunderstorms will be possible across FL along a dissipating front, local sea breeze circulations and any lingering convective outflow or differential heating zones. Isolated lightning flashes will also be possible with low-topped convection during the day in the post-frontal environment along and west of the Cascades in WA.
..Thompson.. 03/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Thursday, March 26
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, March 26 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Friday, March 27 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, March 28 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, March 29 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, March 30 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230859 SPC AC 230859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 311200Z
DISCUSSION
Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5
Strong westerly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the central and eastern U.S. on Thursday. At low-levels, moisture advection is forecast to strengthen during the day from the mid Mississippi Valley into the lower Ohio Valley as surface dewpoints gradually increase into the lower to mid 60s F. A cold front is forecast to advance southeastward into the southern Great Lakes by Thursday afternoon, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms developing along and near the front. Moderate instability should develop to the south of the front, which combined with strong deep-layer shear will likely support a severe threat during the afternoon and evening. The greatest threat is expected to be from northeast Missouri east-northeastward into western and northern Ohio, where a threat area has been added for Thursday.
On Friday, a mid-level trough is forecast to dig southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley, as a front moves southeastward into the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians. Although isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible near the front during the afternoon and evening, model forecasts suggest that instability will remain relatively weak. This should keep any severe threat minimal.
Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8
The cold front is forecast to move southward through the Southeast on Saturday and should remain near the Gulf Coast on Sunday. In its wake, a relatively dry airmass is forecast to be in place over much of the nation, making thunderstorm development unlikely in most areas. On Monday, some model forecasts suggest that a mid-level shortwave trough will move into the southern Plains. Low-level moisture could return northward into the southern Plains Monday into Monday night. If this where to occur, then thunderstorm activity would be mostly likely Monday night as a low-level jet develops. However, this scenario is highly uncertain due to the extended range in the forecast period.
..Broyles.. 03/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, March 27
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, March 26 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Friday, March 27 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, March 28 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, March 29 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, March 30 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230859 SPC AC 230859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 311200Z
DISCUSSION
Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5
Strong westerly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the central and eastern U.S. on Thursday. At low-levels, moisture advection is forecast to strengthen during the day from the mid Mississippi Valley into the lower Ohio Valley as surface dewpoints gradually increase into the lower to mid 60s F. A cold front is forecast to advance southeastward into the southern Great Lakes by Thursday afternoon, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms developing along and near the front. Moderate instability should develop to the south of the front, which combined with strong deep-layer shear will likely support a severe threat during the afternoon and evening. The greatest threat is expected to be from northeast Missouri east-northeastward into western and northern Ohio, where a threat area has been added for Thursday.
On Friday, a mid-level trough is forecast to dig southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley, as a front moves southeastward into the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians. Although isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible near the front during the afternoon and evening, model forecasts suggest that instability will remain relatively weak. This should keep any severe threat minimal.
Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8
The cold front is forecast to move southward through the Southeast on Saturday and should remain near the Gulf Coast on Sunday. In its wake, a relatively dry airmass is forecast to be in place over much of the nation, making thunderstorm development unlikely in most areas. On Monday, some model forecasts suggest that a mid-level shortwave trough will move into the southern Plains. Low-level moisture could return northward into the southern Plains Monday into Monday night. If this where to occur, then thunderstorm activity would be mostly likely Monday night as a low-level jet develops. However, this scenario is highly uncertain due to the extended range in the forecast period.
..Broyles.. 03/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, March 28
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, March 26 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Friday, March 27 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, March 28 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, March 29 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, March 30 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230859 SPC AC 230859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 311200Z
DISCUSSION
Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5
Strong westerly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the central and eastern U.S. on Thursday. At low-levels, moisture advection is forecast to strengthen during the day from the mid Mississippi Valley into the lower Ohio Valley as surface dewpoints gradually increase into the lower to mid 60s F. A cold front is forecast to advance southeastward into the southern Great Lakes by Thursday afternoon, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms developing along and near the front. Moderate instability should develop to the south of the front, which combined with strong deep-layer shear will likely support a severe threat during the afternoon and evening. The greatest threat is expected to be from northeast Missouri east-northeastward into western and northern Ohio, where a threat area has been added for Thursday.
On Friday, a mid-level trough is forecast to dig southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley, as a front moves southeastward into the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians. Although isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible near the front during the afternoon and evening, model forecasts suggest that instability will remain relatively weak. This should keep any severe threat minimal.
Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8
The cold front is forecast to move southward through the Southeast on Saturday and should remain near the Gulf Coast on Sunday. In its wake, a relatively dry airmass is forecast to be in place over much of the nation, making thunderstorm development unlikely in most areas. On Monday, some model forecasts suggest that a mid-level shortwave trough will move into the southern Plains. Low-level moisture could return northward into the southern Plains Monday into Monday night. If this where to occur, then thunderstorm activity would be mostly likely Monday night as a low-level jet develops. However, this scenario is highly uncertain due to the extended range in the forecast period.
..Broyles.. 03/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, March 29
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, March 26 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Friday, March 27 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, March 28 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, March 29 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, March 30 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230859 SPC AC 230859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 311200Z
DISCUSSION
Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5
Strong westerly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the central and eastern U.S. on Thursday. At low-levels, moisture advection is forecast to strengthen during the day from the mid Mississippi Valley into the lower Ohio Valley as surface dewpoints gradually increase into the lower to mid 60s F. A cold front is forecast to advance southeastward into the southern Great Lakes by Thursday afternoon, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms developing along and near the front. Moderate instability should develop to the south of the front, which combined with strong deep-layer shear will likely support a severe threat during the afternoon and evening. The greatest threat is expected to be from northeast Missouri east-northeastward into western and northern Ohio, where a threat area has been added for Thursday.
On Friday, a mid-level trough is forecast to dig southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley, as a front moves southeastward into the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians. Although isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible near the front during the afternoon and evening, model forecasts suggest that instability will remain relatively weak. This should keep any severe threat minimal.
Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8
The cold front is forecast to move southward through the Southeast on Saturday and should remain near the Gulf Coast on Sunday. In its wake, a relatively dry airmass is forecast to be in place over much of the nation, making thunderstorm development unlikely in most areas. On Monday, some model forecasts suggest that a mid-level shortwave trough will move into the southern Plains. Low-level moisture could return northward into the southern Plains Monday into Monday night. If this where to occur, then thunderstorm activity would be mostly likely Monday night as a low-level jet develops. However, this scenario is highly uncertain due to the extended range in the forecast period.
..Broyles.. 03/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, March 30
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, March 26 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Friday, March 27 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, March 28 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, March 29 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, March 30 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230859 SPC AC 230859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 311200Z
DISCUSSION
Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5
Strong westerly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the central and eastern U.S. on Thursday. At low-levels, moisture advection is forecast to strengthen during the day from the mid Mississippi Valley into the lower Ohio Valley as surface dewpoints gradually increase into the lower to mid 60s F. A cold front is forecast to advance southeastward into the southern Great Lakes by Thursday afternoon, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms developing along and near the front. Moderate instability should develop to the south of the front, which combined with strong deep-layer shear will likely support a severe threat during the afternoon and evening. The greatest threat is expected to be from northeast Missouri east-northeastward into western and northern Ohio, where a threat area has been added for Thursday.
On Friday, a mid-level trough is forecast to dig southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley, as a front moves southeastward into the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians. Although isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible near the front during the afternoon and evening, model forecasts suggest that instability will remain relatively weak. This should keep any severe threat minimal.
Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8
The cold front is forecast to move southward through the Southeast on Saturday and should remain near the Gulf Coast on Sunday. In its wake, a relatively dry airmass is forecast to be in place over much of the nation, making thunderstorm development unlikely in most areas. On Monday, some model forecasts suggest that a mid-level shortwave trough will move into the southern Plains. Low-level moisture could return northward into the southern Plains Monday into Monday night. If this where to occur, then thunderstorm activity would be mostly likely Monday night as a low-level jet develops. However, this scenario is highly uncertain due to the extended range in the forecast period.
..Broyles.. 03/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, March 23
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, March 24
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Wednesday, March 25
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Thursday, March 26
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Friday, March 27
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, March 28
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, March 29
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, March 30
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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