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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Wednesday, April 8

Outlook Summary

Isolated severe thunderstorms may develop across parts of Kansas late this afternoon and early evening, with hail and locally severe wind gusts possible.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 081610

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026

Valid 081630Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS

### SUMMARY

Isolated severe thunderstorms may develop across parts of Kansas late this afternoon and early evening, with hail and locally severe wind gusts possible.

Kansas

A strong upper trough/low over the northern Plains and south-central Canada will move eastward today towards the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes, and eventually spread into Ontario by late tonight. At the surface, an occluded low will develop eastward in tandem with the upper trough/low, while a cold front extending southwestward into the central Plains continues moving slowly southward through this evening. Limited low-level moisture is expected to exist ahead of the front by late this afternoon across KS, with late morning surface observations and short-term guidance both suggesting surface dewpoints will likely remain in the mid 30s to no more than mid 40s. A well-mixed boundary layer will likely develop with ample daytime heating across the narrow warm sector, with MLCAPE perhaps peaking in the 250-500 J/kg range around 21-23Z in parts of western/central KS. MLCIN is forecast to become minimal in this time frame, and weak low-level convergence along the front may be enough to aid isolated thunderstorm development across this area.

While stronger flow aloft associated with the upper-level trough/low will remain displaced to the north of KS, modest enhancement to the mid-level westerlies may still support around 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear. This should be sufficient for some updraft organization with any thunderstorms that can develop and be sustained. The primary uncertainty remains how many thunderstorms will form given overall modest large-scale ascent amid weak instability. Still, some risk for isolated hail and locally severe gusts remains apparent with the strongest multicell cores. The Marginal Risk has been maintained across KS with no changes.

Central/South Florida

20-30 kt mid-level westerlies will overlie weak low-level easterlies today across parts of the central/southern Florida Peninsula. Resultant modest effective bulk shear would conditionally support updraft organization, but poor mid-level lapse rates noted on the 12Z TBW and KEY observed soundings should generally limit updraft strength. Still, isolated to locally scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon, and preferentially focus along/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. Small hail and gusty winds may occur with the strongest cores, but the overall severe threat appears too limited/isolated to include any probabilities at this time.

..Gleason/Wendt.. 04/08/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

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Outlook for Thursday, April 9

Outlook Summary

Areas of hail and strong wind gusts are expected Thursday afternoon and evening in parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley westward into Kansas. Locally very large hail is possible.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 081720

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI

### SUMMARY

Areas of hail and strong wind gusts are expected Thursday afternoon and evening in parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley westward into Kansas. Locally very large hail is possible.

Synopsis

An area of cyclonic flow aloft will exist from central into eastern Canada, with various waves rotating from the northern Plains across the Great Lakes. The southern periphery of the stronger winds aloft will extend across much of the northern Plains and the Midwest, with 30 kt 500 mb winds as far south as northern KS and MO.

At the surface, a warm front will lift north across northern KS and MO during the day, with 50s F dewpoints spreading north with gusty south winds. As a shortwave disturbance moves into the northern Plains late, a surge of high pressure will push this boundary south as a cold front after 00Z, extending from southwest KS into central MO and IL by 12Z Friday. Scattered strong to severe storms will be most likely along this east-west front, with more isolated activity from western KS into the TX Panhandle along a dryline.

..Central Plains

Storms are expected to develop relatively early, perhaps around 18Z over northeast KS into southeast NE as warm/moistening air from the south interacts with the warm front. Strong heating south of the boundary will result in steep low-level lapse rates, while the increasing theta-e rises near the boundary and beneath cold midlevel temperatures. The cold profiles aloft along with 40 kt effective deep-layer shear will favor hail production, with perhaps isolated very large hail.

As heating peaks during the later afternoon, additional cells are expected extending southwestward into north-central KS. Though dewpoints will only be in the 50s F, slow-moving supercells will be possible, again with very large hail.

With west to northwest winds aloft, all these storms may eventually merge into the evening, propagating southeastward across much of eastern KS into northwest MO. The warm boundary layer, combined with cold downdraft material, will likely support scattered damaging gusts.

..Jewell.. 04/08/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Friday, April 10

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible on Friday over parts of the southern and central Plains eastward into the Ozarks.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 080713

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible on Friday over parts of the southern and central Plains eastward into the Ozarks.

Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks

An upper-level ridge will move eastward into the Rockies on Friday, as mid-level flow remains westerly over the Great Plains. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southward across far southern Kansas. Surface heating and low-level convergence along the front will aid convective initiation during the afternoon. A few small thunderstorm clusters will be possible from late afternoon into the evening. Near the front by late afternoon, model forecasts have MLCAPE peaking in the 1200 to 1500 J/kg range, and show 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 30 knot range. This should be enough for a marginal severe threat. Hail and isolated severe gusts will be the primary threats.

..Broyles.. 04/08/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Saturday, April 11

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080854 SPC AC 080854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

DISCUSSION

Saturday/Day 4 to Monday/Day 6

On Saturday, mid-level southwesterly flow will strengthen over the central U.S., as an upper-level system moves to near the West Coast. A moist airmass will be in place over the southern and central Plains, as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves across the region. Large-scale ascent along with warming surface temperatures will result in scattered thunderstorm development over much of west Texas Saturday afternoon. MLCAPE is expected to peak near 1000 J/kg in some areas, with 0-6 km shear being in the 30 to 40 knot range over much of the southern High Plains. This should be sufficient for a severe threat, with large hail and severe wind gusts possible.

From Saturday night into Sunday, strong moisture advection is forecast over the Great Plains. By Sunday afternoon, moderate instability is expected to be in place over much of this airmass. Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected throughout much of the moist sector during the afternoon and evening. Some model forecasts move a 50 to 60 knot mid-level jet through central and northeast Texas during the afternoon and evening. If this happens, then a substantial severe threat would be possible from parts of central and north Texas into Oklahoma. Severe storms, including supercells with large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat would be possible in areas that destabilize the most.

On Monday, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to remain from the southern Plains extending north-northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Strong to severe thunderstorm development will be possible over much of the instability corridor in the afternoon and evening. The greatest potential for severe storms is forecast from the southern Plains north-northeastward into the lower Missouri Valley and upper Mississippi Valley, where the models develop moderate instability and have 0-6 km shear mostly in the 30 to 40 knot range. Severe storms with large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat will be possible.

Tuesday/Day 7 and Wednesday/Day 8

The western U.S. trough is finally forecast to approach the southern Plains on Tuesday, where a moist and unstable airmass should be in place. Some solutions suggest that a mid-level jet will move into the southern Plains Tuesday afternoon. This would create strong deep-layer shear over parts of the moist sector, suggesting that a substantial severe threat will be possible. Although there is still spatial uncertainty regarding this scenario, current model forecasts would support supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts and some tornadoes.

On Wednesday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move through the central states, with a southwest-to-northeast corridor of moderate instability in place by afternoon from northeast Texas into western Ozarks. This would be favorable for severe storms. However, at this extended range, considerable uncertainty exists concerning severe threat magnitude and spacing.

..Broyles.. 04/08/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, April 12

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080854 SPC AC 080854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

DISCUSSION

Saturday/Day 4 to Monday/Day 6

On Saturday, mid-level southwesterly flow will strengthen over the central U.S., as an upper-level system moves to near the West Coast. A moist airmass will be in place over the southern and central Plains, as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves across the region. Large-scale ascent along with warming surface temperatures will result in scattered thunderstorm development over much of west Texas Saturday afternoon. MLCAPE is expected to peak near 1000 J/kg in some areas, with 0-6 km shear being in the 30 to 40 knot range over much of the southern High Plains. This should be sufficient for a severe threat, with large hail and severe wind gusts possible.

From Saturday night into Sunday, strong moisture advection is forecast over the Great Plains. By Sunday afternoon, moderate instability is expected to be in place over much of this airmass. Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected throughout much of the moist sector during the afternoon and evening. Some model forecasts move a 50 to 60 knot mid-level jet through central and northeast Texas during the afternoon and evening. If this happens, then a substantial severe threat would be possible from parts of central and north Texas into Oklahoma. Severe storms, including supercells with large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat would be possible in areas that destabilize the most.

On Monday, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to remain from the southern Plains extending north-northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Strong to severe thunderstorm development will be possible over much of the instability corridor in the afternoon and evening. The greatest potential for severe storms is forecast from the southern Plains north-northeastward into the lower Missouri Valley and upper Mississippi Valley, where the models develop moderate instability and have 0-6 km shear mostly in the 30 to 40 knot range. Severe storms with large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat will be possible.

Tuesday/Day 7 and Wednesday/Day 8

The western U.S. trough is finally forecast to approach the southern Plains on Tuesday, where a moist and unstable airmass should be in place. Some solutions suggest that a mid-level jet will move into the southern Plains Tuesday afternoon. This would create strong deep-layer shear over parts of the moist sector, suggesting that a substantial severe threat will be possible. Although there is still spatial uncertainty regarding this scenario, current model forecasts would support supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts and some tornadoes.

On Wednesday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move through the central states, with a southwest-to-northeast corridor of moderate instability in place by afternoon from northeast Texas into western Ozarks. This would be favorable for severe storms. However, at this extended range, considerable uncertainty exists concerning severe threat magnitude and spacing.

..Broyles.. 04/08/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, April 13

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080854 SPC AC 080854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

DISCUSSION

Saturday/Day 4 to Monday/Day 6

On Saturday, mid-level southwesterly flow will strengthen over the central U.S., as an upper-level system moves to near the West Coast. A moist airmass will be in place over the southern and central Plains, as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves across the region. Large-scale ascent along with warming surface temperatures will result in scattered thunderstorm development over much of west Texas Saturday afternoon. MLCAPE is expected to peak near 1000 J/kg in some areas, with 0-6 km shear being in the 30 to 40 knot range over much of the southern High Plains. This should be sufficient for a severe threat, with large hail and severe wind gusts possible.

From Saturday night into Sunday, strong moisture advection is forecast over the Great Plains. By Sunday afternoon, moderate instability is expected to be in place over much of this airmass. Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected throughout much of the moist sector during the afternoon and evening. Some model forecasts move a 50 to 60 knot mid-level jet through central and northeast Texas during the afternoon and evening. If this happens, then a substantial severe threat would be possible from parts of central and north Texas into Oklahoma. Severe storms, including supercells with large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat would be possible in areas that destabilize the most.

On Monday, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to remain from the southern Plains extending north-northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Strong to severe thunderstorm development will be possible over much of the instability corridor in the afternoon and evening. The greatest potential for severe storms is forecast from the southern Plains north-northeastward into the lower Missouri Valley and upper Mississippi Valley, where the models develop moderate instability and have 0-6 km shear mostly in the 30 to 40 knot range. Severe storms with large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat will be possible.

Tuesday/Day 7 and Wednesday/Day 8

The western U.S. trough is finally forecast to approach the southern Plains on Tuesday, where a moist and unstable airmass should be in place. Some solutions suggest that a mid-level jet will move into the southern Plains Tuesday afternoon. This would create strong deep-layer shear over parts of the moist sector, suggesting that a substantial severe threat will be possible. Although there is still spatial uncertainty regarding this scenario, current model forecasts would support supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts and some tornadoes.

On Wednesday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move through the central states, with a southwest-to-northeast corridor of moderate instability in place by afternoon from northeast Texas into western Ozarks. This would be favorable for severe storms. However, at this extended range, considerable uncertainty exists concerning severe threat magnitude and spacing.

..Broyles.. 04/08/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, April 14

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080854 SPC AC 080854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

DISCUSSION

Saturday/Day 4 to Monday/Day 6

On Saturday, mid-level southwesterly flow will strengthen over the central U.S., as an upper-level system moves to near the West Coast. A moist airmass will be in place over the southern and central Plains, as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves across the region. Large-scale ascent along with warming surface temperatures will result in scattered thunderstorm development over much of west Texas Saturday afternoon. MLCAPE is expected to peak near 1000 J/kg in some areas, with 0-6 km shear being in the 30 to 40 knot range over much of the southern High Plains. This should be sufficient for a severe threat, with large hail and severe wind gusts possible.

From Saturday night into Sunday, strong moisture advection is forecast over the Great Plains. By Sunday afternoon, moderate instability is expected to be in place over much of this airmass. Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected throughout much of the moist sector during the afternoon and evening. Some model forecasts move a 50 to 60 knot mid-level jet through central and northeast Texas during the afternoon and evening. If this happens, then a substantial severe threat would be possible from parts of central and north Texas into Oklahoma. Severe storms, including supercells with large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat would be possible in areas that destabilize the most.

On Monday, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to remain from the southern Plains extending north-northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Strong to severe thunderstorm development will be possible over much of the instability corridor in the afternoon and evening. The greatest potential for severe storms is forecast from the southern Plains north-northeastward into the lower Missouri Valley and upper Mississippi Valley, where the models develop moderate instability and have 0-6 km shear mostly in the 30 to 40 knot range. Severe storms with large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat will be possible.

Tuesday/Day 7 and Wednesday/Day 8

The western U.S. trough is finally forecast to approach the southern Plains on Tuesday, where a moist and unstable airmass should be in place. Some solutions suggest that a mid-level jet will move into the southern Plains Tuesday afternoon. This would create strong deep-layer shear over parts of the moist sector, suggesting that a substantial severe threat will be possible. Although there is still spatial uncertainty regarding this scenario, current model forecasts would support supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts and some tornadoes.

On Wednesday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move through the central states, with a southwest-to-northeast corridor of moderate instability in place by afternoon from northeast Texas into western Ozarks. This would be favorable for severe storms. However, at this extended range, considerable uncertainty exists concerning severe threat magnitude and spacing.

..Broyles.. 04/08/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, April 15

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080854 SPC AC 080854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

DISCUSSION

Saturday/Day 4 to Monday/Day 6

On Saturday, mid-level southwesterly flow will strengthen over the central U.S., as an upper-level system moves to near the West Coast. A moist airmass will be in place over the southern and central Plains, as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves across the region. Large-scale ascent along with warming surface temperatures will result in scattered thunderstorm development over much of west Texas Saturday afternoon. MLCAPE is expected to peak near 1000 J/kg in some areas, with 0-6 km shear being in the 30 to 40 knot range over much of the southern High Plains. This should be sufficient for a severe threat, with large hail and severe wind gusts possible.

From Saturday night into Sunday, strong moisture advection is forecast over the Great Plains. By Sunday afternoon, moderate instability is expected to be in place over much of this airmass. Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected throughout much of the moist sector during the afternoon and evening. Some model forecasts move a 50 to 60 knot mid-level jet through central and northeast Texas during the afternoon and evening. If this happens, then a substantial severe threat would be possible from parts of central and north Texas into Oklahoma. Severe storms, including supercells with large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat would be possible in areas that destabilize the most.

On Monday, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to remain from the southern Plains extending north-northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Strong to severe thunderstorm development will be possible over much of the instability corridor in the afternoon and evening. The greatest potential for severe storms is forecast from the southern Plains north-northeastward into the lower Missouri Valley and upper Mississippi Valley, where the models develop moderate instability and have 0-6 km shear mostly in the 30 to 40 knot range. Severe storms with large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat will be possible.

Tuesday/Day 7 and Wednesday/Day 8

The western U.S. trough is finally forecast to approach the southern Plains on Tuesday, where a moist and unstable airmass should be in place. Some solutions suggest that a mid-level jet will move into the southern Plains Tuesday afternoon. This would create strong deep-layer shear over parts of the moist sector, suggesting that a substantial severe threat will be possible. Although there is still spatial uncertainty regarding this scenario, current model forecasts would support supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts and some tornadoes.

On Wednesday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move through the central states, with a southwest-to-northeast corridor of moderate instability in place by afternoon from northeast Texas into western Ozarks. This would be favorable for severe storms. However, at this extended range, considerable uncertainty exists concerning severe threat magnitude and spacing.

..Broyles.. 04/08/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

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National Risk Overview

Wednesday, April 8

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 5%

Thursday, April 9

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Friday, April 10

ANY SEVERE: 5%

Saturday, April 11

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Sunday, April 12

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Monday, April 13

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Tuesday, April 14

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Wednesday, April 15

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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