Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, December 13
Outlook Summary
Isolated weak thunderstorm activity is possible across portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts, as well as South Florida and the Keys this afternoon into Saturday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 130537
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated weak thunderstorm activity is possible across portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts, as well as South Florida and the Keys this afternoon into Saturday night.
Discussion
Strong midlevel height falls will spread across the Ohio Valley/Middle Atlantic during the day1 period as a pronounced upper trough digs across the Great Lakes/OH Valley. This evolution warrants surface pressures rising across the interior CONUS east of the Rockies, ultimately forcing a cold front toward the upper TX/LA Coast by the end of the period. Prior to the frontal passage, weak low-level warm advection will aid some convective threat due in part to the influence of a low-amplitude short-wave trough that will eject across the western Gulf basin. Otherwise, lightning may accompany frontal convection as the wind shift surges into this region. In addition to isolated thunderstorms across the upper TX/LA Coasts, moisture/buoyancy is expected to gradually advance north across the FL Keys into the southern FL Peninsula. Weak disturbance should encourage isolated thunderstorm development across this region as well. In both scenarios, severe threat appears negligible.
..Darrow/Wendt.. 12/13/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Sunday, December 14
Outlook Summary
A few storms are possible across South Florida and the Florida Keys on Sunday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 130552
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
A few storms are possible across South Florida and the Florida Keys on Sunday.
Discussion
An upper trough will move from the Great Lakes to the western Atlantic by Sunday night/early Monday. At the surface, strong high pressure will continue to build south and east from the Midwest to the Tennessee Valley. This expansive high pressure will push a cold front into the Atlantic and the Gulf. Richer boundary layer moisture will remain confined to South Florida and the Keys where showers and isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing Sunday morning. This activity may persist into the afternoon while shifting southeast with time. However, weak instability should limit overall severe weather potential.
..Bentley.. 12/13/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Monday, December 15
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 130717
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.
Discussion
Strong high pressure will dominate much of the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS on Monday with strong offshore flow into the Atlantic and the Gulf, pushing rich moisture well offshore. Therefore, thunderstorm activity is not expected across much of the CONUS. The only exception may be across the Pacific Northwest coast where some weak instability may develop. However, even within this area, lightning activity should remain limited due to relatively warm air aloft.
..Bentley.. 12/13/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Tuesday, December 16
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, December 16 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, December 17 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, December 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, December 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, December 20 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130846 SPC AC 130846
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
Moisture return will begin on Tuesday/D4 across Texas with some weak instability and thunderstorm potential arriving by Wednesday/D5. Significant differences in the upper-level pattern begin on Thursday/D6 and beyond which will significantly impact thunderstorm and severe weather potential.
The ECMWF and AIFS have a sharper mid-level trough farther south on Thursday/D6. This will result in a stronger cold front and farther north moisture return ahead of the front. In addition, some weak instability may develop beneath the stronger mid-level jet. This may create an environment favorable for a few stronger storms from the Lower Ohio Valley to the Mid-Mississippi Valley. This stronger scenario would likely push a strong cold front deep into the Gulf on Friday and limit thunderstorm potential into the weekend.
A less amplified solution (as shown by the GFS and AIGFS) would not support much of any strong storm threat on Thursday/D6. However, it would keep low to mid 60s dewpoints across Texas and the Lower MS Valley on Friday and into the weekend. This may result in weak to potentially moderate instability across portions of the southern Plains and possibly into the Mid-Mississippi Valley through the weekend. Despite this lingering instability, a mostly zonal mid-level pattern would not support a significant severe weather threat.
Overall, severe weather potential remains somewhat low for much of the period. Some low-end severe weather threat may exist from Thursday/D6 and beyond as low-level moisture increases, but significant uncertainties in the evolution of the upper-level pattern make any forecast for time or location of any potential low-end threat difficult.
..Bentley.. 12/13/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, December 17
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, December 16 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, December 17 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, December 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, December 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, December 20 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130846 SPC AC 130846
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
Moisture return will begin on Tuesday/D4 across Texas with some weak instability and thunderstorm potential arriving by Wednesday/D5. Significant differences in the upper-level pattern begin on Thursday/D6 and beyond which will significantly impact thunderstorm and severe weather potential.
The ECMWF and AIFS have a sharper mid-level trough farther south on Thursday/D6. This will result in a stronger cold front and farther north moisture return ahead of the front. In addition, some weak instability may develop beneath the stronger mid-level jet. This may create an environment favorable for a few stronger storms from the Lower Ohio Valley to the Mid-Mississippi Valley. This stronger scenario would likely push a strong cold front deep into the Gulf on Friday and limit thunderstorm potential into the weekend.
A less amplified solution (as shown by the GFS and AIGFS) would not support much of any strong storm threat on Thursday/D6. However, it would keep low to mid 60s dewpoints across Texas and the Lower MS Valley on Friday and into the weekend. This may result in weak to potentially moderate instability across portions of the southern Plains and possibly into the Mid-Mississippi Valley through the weekend. Despite this lingering instability, a mostly zonal mid-level pattern would not support a significant severe weather threat.
Overall, severe weather potential remains somewhat low for much of the period. Some low-end severe weather threat may exist from Thursday/D6 and beyond as low-level moisture increases, but significant uncertainties in the evolution of the upper-level pattern make any forecast for time or location of any potential low-end threat difficult.
..Bentley.. 12/13/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, December 18
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, December 16 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, December 17 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, December 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, December 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, December 20 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130846 SPC AC 130846
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
Moisture return will begin on Tuesday/D4 across Texas with some weak instability and thunderstorm potential arriving by Wednesday/D5. Significant differences in the upper-level pattern begin on Thursday/D6 and beyond which will significantly impact thunderstorm and severe weather potential.
The ECMWF and AIFS have a sharper mid-level trough farther south on Thursday/D6. This will result in a stronger cold front and farther north moisture return ahead of the front. In addition, some weak instability may develop beneath the stronger mid-level jet. This may create an environment favorable for a few stronger storms from the Lower Ohio Valley to the Mid-Mississippi Valley. This stronger scenario would likely push a strong cold front deep into the Gulf on Friday and limit thunderstorm potential into the weekend.
A less amplified solution (as shown by the GFS and AIGFS) would not support much of any strong storm threat on Thursday/D6. However, it would keep low to mid 60s dewpoints across Texas and the Lower MS Valley on Friday and into the weekend. This may result in weak to potentially moderate instability across portions of the southern Plains and possibly into the Mid-Mississippi Valley through the weekend. Despite this lingering instability, a mostly zonal mid-level pattern would not support a significant severe weather threat.
Overall, severe weather potential remains somewhat low for much of the period. Some low-end severe weather threat may exist from Thursday/D6 and beyond as low-level moisture increases, but significant uncertainties in the evolution of the upper-level pattern make any forecast for time or location of any potential low-end threat difficult.
..Bentley.. 12/13/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, December 19
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, December 16 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, December 17 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, December 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, December 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, December 20 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130846 SPC AC 130846
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
Moisture return will begin on Tuesday/D4 across Texas with some weak instability and thunderstorm potential arriving by Wednesday/D5. Significant differences in the upper-level pattern begin on Thursday/D6 and beyond which will significantly impact thunderstorm and severe weather potential.
The ECMWF and AIFS have a sharper mid-level trough farther south on Thursday/D6. This will result in a stronger cold front and farther north moisture return ahead of the front. In addition, some weak instability may develop beneath the stronger mid-level jet. This may create an environment favorable for a few stronger storms from the Lower Ohio Valley to the Mid-Mississippi Valley. This stronger scenario would likely push a strong cold front deep into the Gulf on Friday and limit thunderstorm potential into the weekend.
A less amplified solution (as shown by the GFS and AIGFS) would not support much of any strong storm threat on Thursday/D6. However, it would keep low to mid 60s dewpoints across Texas and the Lower MS Valley on Friday and into the weekend. This may result in weak to potentially moderate instability across portions of the southern Plains and possibly into the Mid-Mississippi Valley through the weekend. Despite this lingering instability, a mostly zonal mid-level pattern would not support a significant severe weather threat.
Overall, severe weather potential remains somewhat low for much of the period. Some low-end severe weather threat may exist from Thursday/D6 and beyond as low-level moisture increases, but significant uncertainties in the evolution of the upper-level pattern make any forecast for time or location of any potential low-end threat difficult.
..Bentley.. 12/13/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, December 20
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, December 16 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, December 17 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, December 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, December 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, December 20 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130846 SPC AC 130846
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
Moisture return will begin on Tuesday/D4 across Texas with some weak instability and thunderstorm potential arriving by Wednesday/D5. Significant differences in the upper-level pattern begin on Thursday/D6 and beyond which will significantly impact thunderstorm and severe weather potential.
The ECMWF and AIFS have a sharper mid-level trough farther south on Thursday/D6. This will result in a stronger cold front and farther north moisture return ahead of the front. In addition, some weak instability may develop beneath the stronger mid-level jet. This may create an environment favorable for a few stronger storms from the Lower Ohio Valley to the Mid-Mississippi Valley. This stronger scenario would likely push a strong cold front deep into the Gulf on Friday and limit thunderstorm potential into the weekend.
A less amplified solution (as shown by the GFS and AIGFS) would not support much of any strong storm threat on Thursday/D6. However, it would keep low to mid 60s dewpoints across Texas and the Lower MS Valley on Friday and into the weekend. This may result in weak to potentially moderate instability across portions of the southern Plains and possibly into the Mid-Mississippi Valley through the weekend. Despite this lingering instability, a mostly zonal mid-level pattern would not support a significant severe weather threat.
Overall, severe weather potential remains somewhat low for much of the period. Some low-end severe weather threat may exist from Thursday/D6 and beyond as low-level moisture increases, but significant uncertainties in the evolution of the upper-level pattern make any forecast for time or location of any potential low-end threat difficult.
..Bentley.. 12/13/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, December 13
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Sunday, December 14
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Monday, December 15
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Tuesday, December 16
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, December 17
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, December 18
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, December 19
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, December 20
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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