Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, June 2
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with large hail, severe wind gusts, and potentially a couple of tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening in parts of the northern Plains. Strong wind gusts and marginal hail will also be possible in parts of the southern and central High Plains. A few severe wind gusts may also occur from southern Georgia into northern and eastern Florida.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 021630
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026
Valid 021630Z - 031200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with large hail, severe wind gusts, and potentially a couple of tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening in parts of the northern Plains. Strong wind gusts and marginal hail will also be possible in parts of the southern and central High Plains. A few severe wind gusts may also occur from southern Georgia into northern and eastern Florida.
Northern Plains
Morning surface analysis places a low over northwest ND, with a cold front extending southward from this low across western ND and into northwest SD before becoming oriented more southwestward through northeast WY into south-central WY. Warm-air advection showers and thunderstorms are already ongoing in the vicinity of this boundary across ND. General expectation is for these showers to continue while remaining predominantly subsevere. By this afternoon, additional development is anticipated along the slow-moving front from central ND into western SD and far eastern WY.
Environment preceding the front will be moist and unstable, with upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints and MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg. Boundary-parallel shear suggest the potential for both an anafrontal character and quickly linear mode across much of ND. Even so, some severe is possible, with large hail (isolated very large) and damaging gusts as the primary risks. The shear orientation becomes a bit less parallel to the boundary with southern extent, and there is some potential for initial supercell structures from south-central ND through western SD and into far eastern WY. Some low-level southeasterly flow is expected near the surface low (which is expected to redevelop southward), resulting in low-level hodographs that indicate some tornado risk. This risk could be countered by high LCLs and the likely quick transition to more linear structures. Some undercutting or movement north of the outflow-augmented cold front is likely with time, and the potential for development of a strong to severe evening/overnight MCS appears limited.
Central/Southern High Plains
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are anticipated across the central and southern High Plains today amid moist low-level easterlies/southeasterlies and modest southwesterlies aloft. There is some indication one or two vorticity maxima may move into the region along the northwestern periphery of the southern Plains ridging. Shear is weak and a generally disorganized, outflow-dominant storm structure is expected but some isolated hail and/or damaging gusts are possible sporadically with the strongest storms.
Southeast into Central TX
Surface analysis places an outflow boundary associated with convective clusters over OK arcing from northwest TX south of the Metroplex and into northeast TX. A hot and humid air mass over central/southeast TX will be supportive of re-development of afternoon thunderstorms along this outflow boundary. Storms will likely track southward through the early evening, posing a risk of locally damaging wind gusts.
Southeast AL/southern GA into much of FL
A deepening upper trough and associated large-scale ascent will augment mesoscale factors (including surface moisture convergence and sea-breeze boundaries) to support numerous thunderstorms across the region. Strong buoyancy and modest deep-layer shear could support occasional storm organization and robust updrafts capable of producing damaging downbursts. Interactions between ongoing storms and mesoscale boundaries could also augment updrafts, with the resultant water loading also producing occasionally strong gusts.
..Mosier/Chalmers.. 06/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Wednesday, June 3
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible Wednesday afternoon into night in parts of the northern Plains into upper Mississippi Valley. More sporadic occurrences of large hail and severe wind gusts appear possible across parts of the central High Plains and southwest Texas.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 020547
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible Wednesday afternoon into night in parts of the northern Plains into upper Mississippi Valley. More sporadic occurrences of large hail and severe wind gusts appear possible across parts of the central High Plains and southwest Texas.
Synopsis
A mid/upper-level low initially over southern Saskatchewan Wednesday morning is forecast to shift east into southern Manitoba through the forecast period. At the same time, an attending belt of enhanced mid/upper-level winds will overspread the northern Plains into upper MS Valley, along with a corridor of modest height falls. Elsewhere, a lower-latitude short-wave trough will drift north-northeast from the southern into central High Plains.
At the surface, low pressure linked with the Canadian upper low will move through the same areas, while a trailing cold front pushes through the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley. A secondary surface low is expected to form along the front in central SD Wednesday afternoon with the trailing portion of the boundary settling into the NE Panhandle and southeast WY.
### Northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley Wednesday afternoon/night
Showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing Wednesday morning across portions of ND in association with a subtle short-wave trough moving through the area. Model guidance is suggestive that a subset of the early-day convection could linger through the morning into early afternoon across portions of eastern ND into northwest MN, which could ultimately limit the degree of air mass destabilization in those areas. However to the south of the associated cloud debris/convective outflow, stronger daytime heating in conjunction with boundary layer dewpoints in the 60s and steep mid-level lapse rates will support a moderately unstable air mass with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg.
Modest height falls aloft will combine with convergence along the cold front and preceding convective outflow boundary to support robust thunderstorm development by mid/late afternoon across portions of south-central and southeast ND into central and northeast SD. Forecast soundings indicate the presence of a vertically veering wind profile with 35-40 kt of effective bulk shear, which will support organized storm modes, including supercells. Elongated hodographs resulting from the presence of relatively strong flow above 8-9 km will favor a conditional threat for two-inch or greater hail with any sustained supercells. In addition, some tornado threat could materialize by late afternoon into early evening across portions of southeast ND into northeast SD from the vicinity of the expected outflow boundary to ahead of the secondary surface low, where some enhancement of low-level shear is forecast.
Increasing convergence along coalescing cold pools owing to a strengthening low-level jet is expected to support upscale growth of storms into an MCS Wednesday evening across portions of eastern SD and western MN, with an associated risk for damaging wind gusts.
### Southern and Central High Plains Wednesday afternoon/evening
The models indicate the potential for early-day storms across portions of the southern High Plains owing to forcing for ascent associated with the short-wave trough. Associated cloud cover is expected to limit destabilization potential in those areas, with comparably greater instability developing across the central Plains, and across portions of southwest TX. The migration of the short-wave trough into the central high Plains by afternoon into evening will support clusters of diurnally enhanced thunderstorms in those areas, with an attendant risk for sporadic large hail and damaging winds. Weakening vertical shear with southward extent from the northern into central Plains is expected to limit the potential for a more organized severe-weather episode. Additional strong to severe storms appear possible along the favored terrain of southwest TX, where isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging winds may occur.
..Mead.. 06/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Thursday, June 4
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds are possible from parts of the northern High Plains into lower elevations of the northern and central Plains Thursday afternoon into night. More isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging winds appear possible in parts of the upper Midwest and upper Great Lakes.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 020727
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS…MUCH OF SOUTH DAKOTA…AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds are possible from parts of the northern High Plains into lower elevations of the northern and central Plains Thursday afternoon into night. More isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging winds appear possible in parts of the upper Midwest and upper Great Lakes.
Synopsis
A mid/upper-level low over southern Manitoba Thursday morning is forecast to move into Ontario ahead of a weakening short-wave trough translating from the northern Rockies into northern Plains. A separate disturbance is expected to progress through the central Plains. In the low levels, a surface low will track from southern Manitoba into northwest Ontario while a trailing cold front advances through the upper MS Valley into the upper Great Lakes. The trailing extension of the boundary will link with a surface low over eastern WY.
Northern High Plains into the upper Great Lakes
The synoptic front and low-level upslope flow north of the boundary in the northern High Plains will be the main foci for strong to severe thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon into night. The most favorable overlap of steep lapse rates, moderate instability, and modestly strong vertical shear is expected to reside in those same areas from the northern High Plains east into the mid MO Valley.
Aided by forcing for ascent associated with weakening short-wave trough, diurnally enhanced thunderstorm development is anticipated Thursday afternoon from portions of eastern MT into western SD, near and to the north of the stalled surface front. The environment appears supportive of supercell storm modes capable of large to very large hail initially, especially across western SD. Some model guidance suggests that the initial discrete storms may grow upscale into a forward-propagating MCS that would advance east across SD Thursday night with an associated risk for severe wind gusts.
A potentially separate strong to severe storm regime may materialize Thursday afternoon and evening across portions of central and eastern NE into western IA in association with the lower-latitude disturbance moving through those areas. Vertical shear will be weaker than locations farther to the northwest; however, the presence of a moderately unstable air mass may support isolated occurrences of large hail and severe wind gusts.
Isolated to widely scattered, strong to severe storms may also develop along the cold front across parts of the upper Great Lakes into upper Midwest Thursday afternoon and evening with an associated damaging wind and/or large hail risk.
..Mead.. 06/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Friday, June 5
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, June 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, June 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, June 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, June 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, June 9 | low / uncertain |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 021033 SPC AC 021033
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0533 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Friday
The 00z ensemble mean solutions are in reasonable agreement in the eastward progression of a low-amplitude short-wave trough through the northern and central Plains into the upper Midwest, in tandem with a surface front. Those features are expected to support diurnally enhanced thunderstorm development, especially from parts of the mid MO Valley into upper Midwest amidst a moist and moderately unstable air mass. However, there is model spread in the strength of vertical shear across the warm sector, which casts uncertainty on organized severe-weather potential.
### Days 5/Saturday and 6/Sunday
A vigorous short-wave trough moving onto the Pacific Northwest and BC coasts Saturday morning is forecast to weak while lifting northeast into the lee of the Canadian Rockies. A belt of enhanced mid-level winds attending that system is forecast to overspread the northern Rockies Saturday, and then the adjacent northern High Plains on Sunday. The 00z EPS/GEFS/CMCE ensembles indicate clustering in lee cyclone development across WY or MT on Saturday, with considerably more spread in surface low positions by Sunday. However, those data do suggest that a front will move into the northern High Plains during the day Sunday.
Isolated severe storms appear possible across portions of central and eastern MT Saturday, and perhaps portions of MT into ND on Sunday. Low predictability will be maintained in these areas as it appears that the better forcing for ascent may tend to spread north into Canada. However, these areas will be monitored for a potential upgrade to a 15% unconditional severe-weather probability in subsequent outlooks.
Elsewhere, there is reasonable model agreement in a mid-level trough moving through the Great Lakes and Northeast, with a lower-latitude system lifting north through the southern and central Plains. The presence of a moist and unstable air mass will support strong to isolated severe-storm potential from parts of the southern and central Plains into Great Lakes on Saturday, and southern and central Plains into Ozark Plateau and Mid-Atlantic States on Sunday.
### Days 7/Monday and 8/Tuesday
The various ensemble mean solutions indicate some longitudinal variance in an evolving mid-level trough in the vicinity of the Pacific Coast. Elsewhere, the southern/central Plains trough discussed in the previous section is forecast to weaken while progressing into the upper Midwest. In general, these solutions indicate the strongest mid-level flow confined to the Interior West, and across Canada. The models suggest the most probable overlap of that higher-momentum flow (and associated vertical shear) with a moist and unstable air mass is from the northern Rockies into northern High Plains during this time frame, supporting some severe-storm threat.
..Mead.. 06/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, June 6
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, June 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, June 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, June 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, June 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, June 9 | low / uncertain |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 021033 SPC AC 021033
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0533 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Friday
The 00z ensemble mean solutions are in reasonable agreement in the eastward progression of a low-amplitude short-wave trough through the northern and central Plains into the upper Midwest, in tandem with a surface front. Those features are expected to support diurnally enhanced thunderstorm development, especially from parts of the mid MO Valley into upper Midwest amidst a moist and moderately unstable air mass. However, there is model spread in the strength of vertical shear across the warm sector, which casts uncertainty on organized severe-weather potential.
### Days 5/Saturday and 6/Sunday
A vigorous short-wave trough moving onto the Pacific Northwest and BC coasts Saturday morning is forecast to weak while lifting northeast into the lee of the Canadian Rockies. A belt of enhanced mid-level winds attending that system is forecast to overspread the northern Rockies Saturday, and then the adjacent northern High Plains on Sunday. The 00z EPS/GEFS/CMCE ensembles indicate clustering in lee cyclone development across WY or MT on Saturday, with considerably more spread in surface low positions by Sunday. However, those data do suggest that a front will move into the northern High Plains during the day Sunday.
Isolated severe storms appear possible across portions of central and eastern MT Saturday, and perhaps portions of MT into ND on Sunday. Low predictability will be maintained in these areas as it appears that the better forcing for ascent may tend to spread north into Canada. However, these areas will be monitored for a potential upgrade to a 15% unconditional severe-weather probability in subsequent outlooks.
Elsewhere, there is reasonable model agreement in a mid-level trough moving through the Great Lakes and Northeast, with a lower-latitude system lifting north through the southern and central Plains. The presence of a moist and unstable air mass will support strong to isolated severe-storm potential from parts of the southern and central Plains into Great Lakes on Saturday, and southern and central Plains into Ozark Plateau and Mid-Atlantic States on Sunday.
### Days 7/Monday and 8/Tuesday
The various ensemble mean solutions indicate some longitudinal variance in an evolving mid-level trough in the vicinity of the Pacific Coast. Elsewhere, the southern/central Plains trough discussed in the previous section is forecast to weaken while progressing into the upper Midwest. In general, these solutions indicate the strongest mid-level flow confined to the Interior West, and across Canada. The models suggest the most probable overlap of that higher-momentum flow (and associated vertical shear) with a moist and unstable air mass is from the northern Rockies into northern High Plains during this time frame, supporting some severe-storm threat.
..Mead.. 06/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, June 7
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, June 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, June 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, June 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, June 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, June 9 | low / uncertain |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 021033 SPC AC 021033
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0533 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Friday
The 00z ensemble mean solutions are in reasonable agreement in the eastward progression of a low-amplitude short-wave trough through the northern and central Plains into the upper Midwest, in tandem with a surface front. Those features are expected to support diurnally enhanced thunderstorm development, especially from parts of the mid MO Valley into upper Midwest amidst a moist and moderately unstable air mass. However, there is model spread in the strength of vertical shear across the warm sector, which casts uncertainty on organized severe-weather potential.
### Days 5/Saturday and 6/Sunday
A vigorous short-wave trough moving onto the Pacific Northwest and BC coasts Saturday morning is forecast to weak while lifting northeast into the lee of the Canadian Rockies. A belt of enhanced mid-level winds attending that system is forecast to overspread the northern Rockies Saturday, and then the adjacent northern High Plains on Sunday. The 00z EPS/GEFS/CMCE ensembles indicate clustering in lee cyclone development across WY or MT on Saturday, with considerably more spread in surface low positions by Sunday. However, those data do suggest that a front will move into the northern High Plains during the day Sunday.
Isolated severe storms appear possible across portions of central and eastern MT Saturday, and perhaps portions of MT into ND on Sunday. Low predictability will be maintained in these areas as it appears that the better forcing for ascent may tend to spread north into Canada. However, these areas will be monitored for a potential upgrade to a 15% unconditional severe-weather probability in subsequent outlooks.
Elsewhere, there is reasonable model agreement in a mid-level trough moving through the Great Lakes and Northeast, with a lower-latitude system lifting north through the southern and central Plains. The presence of a moist and unstable air mass will support strong to isolated severe-storm potential from parts of the southern and central Plains into Great Lakes on Saturday, and southern and central Plains into Ozark Plateau and Mid-Atlantic States on Sunday.
### Days 7/Monday and 8/Tuesday
The various ensemble mean solutions indicate some longitudinal variance in an evolving mid-level trough in the vicinity of the Pacific Coast. Elsewhere, the southern/central Plains trough discussed in the previous section is forecast to weaken while progressing into the upper Midwest. In general, these solutions indicate the strongest mid-level flow confined to the Interior West, and across Canada. The models suggest the most probable overlap of that higher-momentum flow (and associated vertical shear) with a moist and unstable air mass is from the northern Rockies into northern High Plains during this time frame, supporting some severe-storm threat.
..Mead.. 06/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, June 8
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, June 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, June 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, June 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, June 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, June 9 | low / uncertain |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 021033 SPC AC 021033
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0533 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Friday
The 00z ensemble mean solutions are in reasonable agreement in the eastward progression of a low-amplitude short-wave trough through the northern and central Plains into the upper Midwest, in tandem with a surface front. Those features are expected to support diurnally enhanced thunderstorm development, especially from parts of the mid MO Valley into upper Midwest amidst a moist and moderately unstable air mass. However, there is model spread in the strength of vertical shear across the warm sector, which casts uncertainty on organized severe-weather potential.
### Days 5/Saturday and 6/Sunday
A vigorous short-wave trough moving onto the Pacific Northwest and BC coasts Saturday morning is forecast to weak while lifting northeast into the lee of the Canadian Rockies. A belt of enhanced mid-level winds attending that system is forecast to overspread the northern Rockies Saturday, and then the adjacent northern High Plains on Sunday. The 00z EPS/GEFS/CMCE ensembles indicate clustering in lee cyclone development across WY or MT on Saturday, with considerably more spread in surface low positions by Sunday. However, those data do suggest that a front will move into the northern High Plains during the day Sunday.
Isolated severe storms appear possible across portions of central and eastern MT Saturday, and perhaps portions of MT into ND on Sunday. Low predictability will be maintained in these areas as it appears that the better forcing for ascent may tend to spread north into Canada. However, these areas will be monitored for a potential upgrade to a 15% unconditional severe-weather probability in subsequent outlooks.
Elsewhere, there is reasonable model agreement in a mid-level trough moving through the Great Lakes and Northeast, with a lower-latitude system lifting north through the southern and central Plains. The presence of a moist and unstable air mass will support strong to isolated severe-storm potential from parts of the southern and central Plains into Great Lakes on Saturday, and southern and central Plains into Ozark Plateau and Mid-Atlantic States on Sunday.
### Days 7/Monday and 8/Tuesday
The various ensemble mean solutions indicate some longitudinal variance in an evolving mid-level trough in the vicinity of the Pacific Coast. Elsewhere, the southern/central Plains trough discussed in the previous section is forecast to weaken while progressing into the upper Midwest. In general, these solutions indicate the strongest mid-level flow confined to the Interior West, and across Canada. The models suggest the most probable overlap of that higher-momentum flow (and associated vertical shear) with a moist and unstable air mass is from the northern Rockies into northern High Plains during this time frame, supporting some severe-storm threat.
..Mead.. 06/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, June 9
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, June 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, June 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, June 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, June 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, June 9 | low / uncertain |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 021033 SPC AC 021033
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0533 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Friday
The 00z ensemble mean solutions are in reasonable agreement in the eastward progression of a low-amplitude short-wave trough through the northern and central Plains into the upper Midwest, in tandem with a surface front. Those features are expected to support diurnally enhanced thunderstorm development, especially from parts of the mid MO Valley into upper Midwest amidst a moist and moderately unstable air mass. However, there is model spread in the strength of vertical shear across the warm sector, which casts uncertainty on organized severe-weather potential.
### Days 5/Saturday and 6/Sunday
A vigorous short-wave trough moving onto the Pacific Northwest and BC coasts Saturday morning is forecast to weak while lifting northeast into the lee of the Canadian Rockies. A belt of enhanced mid-level winds attending that system is forecast to overspread the northern Rockies Saturday, and then the adjacent northern High Plains on Sunday. The 00z EPS/GEFS/CMCE ensembles indicate clustering in lee cyclone development across WY or MT on Saturday, with considerably more spread in surface low positions by Sunday. However, those data do suggest that a front will move into the northern High Plains during the day Sunday.
Isolated severe storms appear possible across portions of central and eastern MT Saturday, and perhaps portions of MT into ND on Sunday. Low predictability will be maintained in these areas as it appears that the better forcing for ascent may tend to spread north into Canada. However, these areas will be monitored for a potential upgrade to a 15% unconditional severe-weather probability in subsequent outlooks.
Elsewhere, there is reasonable model agreement in a mid-level trough moving through the Great Lakes and Northeast, with a lower-latitude system lifting north through the southern and central Plains. The presence of a moist and unstable air mass will support strong to isolated severe-storm potential from parts of the southern and central Plains into Great Lakes on Saturday, and southern and central Plains into Ozark Plateau and Mid-Atlantic States on Sunday.
### Days 7/Monday and 8/Tuesday
The various ensemble mean solutions indicate some longitudinal variance in an evolving mid-level trough in the vicinity of the Pacific Coast. Elsewhere, the southern/central Plains trough discussed in the previous section is forecast to weaken while progressing into the upper Midwest. In general, these solutions indicate the strongest mid-level flow confined to the Interior West, and across Canada. The models suggest the most probable overlap of that higher-momentum flow (and associated vertical shear) with a moist and unstable air mass is from the northern Rockies into northern High Plains during this time frame, supporting some severe-storm threat.
..Mead.. 06/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, June 2
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Wednesday, June 3
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Thursday, June 4
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Friday, June 5
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, June 6
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, June 7
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, June 8
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, June 9
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
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