Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, July 9
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern Plains. Severe wind gusts may also occur in parts of the Ozarks, mid Mississippi Valley, lower Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and Arizona.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 090555
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS…AND FROM THE OZARKS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern Plains. Severe wind gusts may also occur in parts of the Ozarks, mid Mississippi Valley, lower Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and Arizona.
Central and Northern Plains
A mid-level shortwave trough will move through the central and northern Plains today. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place from the Dakotas southward into Nebraska, where surface dewpoints will mostly be in the 60s F. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability will develop across much of the region. Along and near the instability axis, MLCAPE is forecast to increase into the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range. As instability peaks late this afternoon, low-level convergence will likely become maximized along a surface trough from the western Dakotas southward into eastern Colorado. This will aid convective initiation, with several clusters developing and moving eastward across the central and northern High Plains. In the vicinity of the instability axis, moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rate will support a threat for severe wind gusts and isolated large hail. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible across parts of central and northern North Dakota where instability and deep-layer shear will be favorable for supercells.
Further south into parts of western and central Kansas, an east-to-west axis of low-level moisture will be in place. Some model forecasts suggest that an organized line of storms will develop and move eastward along this axis during the early to mid evening. Severe wind gusts will be possible with this line of storms.
Ozarks/Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valley
A very moist airmass will be in place today from the Ozarks eastward into the lower Ohio Valley, where surface dewpoints will be in the mid to upper 70s F. In response to surface heating, moderate to strong instability is expected to develop by afternoon across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley. Some model solutions have an axis of low-level convergence located from central Missouri eastward to southern Indiana, suggesting that convective coverage could be maximized along this corridor. The instability, along with steep low to mid-level lapse rates will be favorable for severe wind gusts with any line segment that can become organized.
Mid-Atlantic
A mid-level shortwave trough will move through the southern Appalachians today and approach the Mid-Atlantic. Ahead of this feature, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place with surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s F. This will contribute to a pocket of moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Thunderstorms that develop in the higher terrain of the central Appalachians will move eastward into the Mid-Atlantic during the late afternoon and early evening. Forecast deep-layer shear appears sufficient to support a severe threat. The instability and steep low-level lapse rates will contribute to a potential for severe wind gusts with the stronger multicells.
Southeast Arizona
An axis of instability is forecast to develop today across southeast Arizona. Near this axis, low-level convergence will become maximized during the afternoon, which will result in isolated to scattered convective initiation. Storms that form near the instability axis as low-level lapse rates peak in the late afternoon could produce isolated severe wind gusts.
..Broyles/Moore.. 07/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Friday, July 10
Outlook Summary
Clusters of thunderstorms, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts and some hail, may evolve in a corridor across parts of the south central Great Plains into the Tennessee Valley Friday afternoon and evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 090456
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO ADJACENT CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AND OZARK PLATEAU INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Clusters of thunderstorms, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts and some hail, may evolve in a corridor across parts of the south central Great Plains into the Tennessee Valley Friday afternoon and evening.
Discussion
Latest model output indicates little general change from prior runs. To the southeast of a vigorous short wave trough digging offshore of the southern British Columbia coast, it appears that an increasingly prominent mid/upper-level high will begin to form across portions of the Colorado Valley/Plateau through southern Rockies vicinity late Friday through Friday night. Ridging to the north of the high is also forecast to continue building along an axis across the northern U.S. Great Plains into eastern Canadian Prairies, while downstream positively tilted larger-scale troughing gradually shifts into and across the northern Atlantic Seaboard.
The evolution of remnant weak troughing across the central Great Plains into lower Missouri Valley remains much more unclear, based on continuing varied model solutions However, a belt of westerlies to its south may remain convectively augmented in lower/mid-levels, though perhaps weaker than Thursday.
The potential for at least moderate destabilization remains most certain along the southern periphery of this regime, aided by a corridor of steeper lower through mid-tropospheric lapse rates associated with elevated mixed-layer air (probably based closer to 850 mb than 700 mb), above a seasonably moist boundary-layer. The latitude at which this will become focused remains a bit uncertain, and by late Friday afternoon will largely depend on where outflow from prior convection ends up and the extent to which it modifies. However, corridors of stronger differential heating and developing low-level warm advection might contribute to an environment conducive to the evolution of at least small organizing clusters with potential to produce severe wind and hail across eastern portions of the central Great Plains into the Tennessee Valley through Friday evening.
In the wake of the eastward migrating weak mid-level trough, convection-allowing guidance suggests that easterly low-level flow into portions of the Front Range, Sangre de Cristo Mountains and Raton Mesa/ridge vicinity will be sufficiently moist and unstable, in the presence of steep lapse rates, to support scattered strong thunderstorm development. Some of these may become capable of producing severe hail and wind.
..Kerr.. 07/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Saturday, July 11
Outlook Summary
Strong thunderstorms with potential to produce a few damaging wind gusts are possible in a corridor across the south central Great Plains through Mid South and Tennessee Valley Saturday afternoon and evening.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 090715
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS THROUGH THE MID SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Strong thunderstorms with potential to produce a few damaging wind gusts are possible in a corridor across the south central Great Plains through Mid South and Tennessee Valley Saturday afternoon and evening.
Discussion
Large-scale mid/upper ridging is forecast to continue building across much of interior North America through this period, with the strong core of the ridge expanding northeastward and encompassing much of the Four Corners states through middle Missouri Valley by late Saturday night. While one notable short wave trough is forced inland across the British Columbia coast, increasingly split downstream troughing is forecast to progress toward the northwestern Atlantic, and offshore of the north Atlantic Seaboard. A lingering mid-level shear axis, trailing to the west of the latter troughing, may slowly continue to shift south of the Mid Atlantic and lower Ohio/Missouri Valleys through the period.
In general, the risk for organized severe convection appears low Saturday through Saturday night, or at least dependent on mesoscale perturbations with low predictability at this time frame. However, there does appear a general consensus among model output that lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates may remain steep enough, above a seasonably moist boundary layer, to contribute to moderate CAPE (on the order of 1500-2000+ J/kg) in advance of the southward advancing shear axis. By late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening, this may focus strong thunderstorm development in a corridor from the south central Great Plains into the Tennessee Valley. Some of this activity may evolve into small clusters with potential to produce strong to locally severe surface gusts.
..Kerr.. 07/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Sunday, July 12
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, July 12 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, July 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, July 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, July 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, July 16 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090900 SPC AC 090900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range models continue to indicate that the center of strong mid-level ridging building northeast of the Four Corners states will shift across the middle Missouri Valley early next week, where it may reach peak intensity by about Tuesday, before becoming suppressed. Even as this commences, mid-level ridging in the westerlies may be maintained near and north/northeast of the international border, from the Great Plains through the Great Lakes, while large-scale downstream troughing amplifies southeastward across the Northeast.
Associated with this evolution, a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air still appears likely to advect on the southern fringe of a belt of strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of this ridging. As the nose of the warmer air overspreads the Great Lakes region early next week, forcing for ascent associated with warm advection could begin supporting organizing thunderstorm clusters potentially impacting portions of New England, and/or the lower Great Lakes through Mid Atlantic.
As guidance suggests that the westerlies will initially remain split downstream of the ridge, and a potentially notable short wave trough (and associated cold front) migrating around its periphery and eventually suppressing it, it remains unclear how potential frontal and pre-frontal convection will pan out on any particular day. Due to both synoptic and sub-synoptic predictability issues, severe probabilities remain at less than 15 percent in the day 6-8 time frame. However, this probably will change in later outlooks closer to this time period, when the potential for introducing unduly large forecast false alarm decreases.
..Kerr.. 07/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, July 13
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, July 12 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, July 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, July 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, July 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, July 16 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090900 SPC AC 090900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range models continue to indicate that the center of strong mid-level ridging building northeast of the Four Corners states will shift across the middle Missouri Valley early next week, where it may reach peak intensity by about Tuesday, before becoming suppressed. Even as this commences, mid-level ridging in the westerlies may be maintained near and north/northeast of the international border, from the Great Plains through the Great Lakes, while large-scale downstream troughing amplifies southeastward across the Northeast.
Associated with this evolution, a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air still appears likely to advect on the southern fringe of a belt of strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of this ridging. As the nose of the warmer air overspreads the Great Lakes region early next week, forcing for ascent associated with warm advection could begin supporting organizing thunderstorm clusters potentially impacting portions of New England, and/or the lower Great Lakes through Mid Atlantic.
As guidance suggests that the westerlies will initially remain split downstream of the ridge, and a potentially notable short wave trough (and associated cold front) migrating around its periphery and eventually suppressing it, it remains unclear how potential frontal and pre-frontal convection will pan out on any particular day. Due to both synoptic and sub-synoptic predictability issues, severe probabilities remain at less than 15 percent in the day 6-8 time frame. However, this probably will change in later outlooks closer to this time period, when the potential for introducing unduly large forecast false alarm decreases.
..Kerr.. 07/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, July 14
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, July 12 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, July 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, July 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, July 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, July 16 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090900 SPC AC 090900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range models continue to indicate that the center of strong mid-level ridging building northeast of the Four Corners states will shift across the middle Missouri Valley early next week, where it may reach peak intensity by about Tuesday, before becoming suppressed. Even as this commences, mid-level ridging in the westerlies may be maintained near and north/northeast of the international border, from the Great Plains through the Great Lakes, while large-scale downstream troughing amplifies southeastward across the Northeast.
Associated with this evolution, a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air still appears likely to advect on the southern fringe of a belt of strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of this ridging. As the nose of the warmer air overspreads the Great Lakes region early next week, forcing for ascent associated with warm advection could begin supporting organizing thunderstorm clusters potentially impacting portions of New England, and/or the lower Great Lakes through Mid Atlantic.
As guidance suggests that the westerlies will initially remain split downstream of the ridge, and a potentially notable short wave trough (and associated cold front) migrating around its periphery and eventually suppressing it, it remains unclear how potential frontal and pre-frontal convection will pan out on any particular day. Due to both synoptic and sub-synoptic predictability issues, severe probabilities remain at less than 15 percent in the day 6-8 time frame. However, this probably will change in later outlooks closer to this time period, when the potential for introducing unduly large forecast false alarm decreases.
..Kerr.. 07/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, July 15
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, July 12 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, July 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, July 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, July 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, July 16 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090900 SPC AC 090900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range models continue to indicate that the center of strong mid-level ridging building northeast of the Four Corners states will shift across the middle Missouri Valley early next week, where it may reach peak intensity by about Tuesday, before becoming suppressed. Even as this commences, mid-level ridging in the westerlies may be maintained near and north/northeast of the international border, from the Great Plains through the Great Lakes, while large-scale downstream troughing amplifies southeastward across the Northeast.
Associated with this evolution, a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air still appears likely to advect on the southern fringe of a belt of strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of this ridging. As the nose of the warmer air overspreads the Great Lakes region early next week, forcing for ascent associated with warm advection could begin supporting organizing thunderstorm clusters potentially impacting portions of New England, and/or the lower Great Lakes through Mid Atlantic.
As guidance suggests that the westerlies will initially remain split downstream of the ridge, and a potentially notable short wave trough (and associated cold front) migrating around its periphery and eventually suppressing it, it remains unclear how potential frontal and pre-frontal convection will pan out on any particular day. Due to both synoptic and sub-synoptic predictability issues, severe probabilities remain at less than 15 percent in the day 6-8 time frame. However, this probably will change in later outlooks closer to this time period, when the potential for introducing unduly large forecast false alarm decreases.
..Kerr.. 07/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, July 16
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, July 12 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, July 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, July 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, July 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, July 16 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090900 SPC AC 090900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range models continue to indicate that the center of strong mid-level ridging building northeast of the Four Corners states will shift across the middle Missouri Valley early next week, where it may reach peak intensity by about Tuesday, before becoming suppressed. Even as this commences, mid-level ridging in the westerlies may be maintained near and north/northeast of the international border, from the Great Plains through the Great Lakes, while large-scale downstream troughing amplifies southeastward across the Northeast.
Associated with this evolution, a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air still appears likely to advect on the southern fringe of a belt of strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of this ridging. As the nose of the warmer air overspreads the Great Lakes region early next week, forcing for ascent associated with warm advection could begin supporting organizing thunderstorm clusters potentially impacting portions of New England, and/or the lower Great Lakes through Mid Atlantic.
As guidance suggests that the westerlies will initially remain split downstream of the ridge, and a potentially notable short wave trough (and associated cold front) migrating around its periphery and eventually suppressing it, it remains unclear how potential frontal and pre-frontal convection will pan out on any particular day. Due to both synoptic and sub-synoptic predictability issues, severe probabilities remain at less than 15 percent in the day 6-8 time frame. However, this probably will change in later outlooks closer to this time period, when the potential for introducing unduly large forecast false alarm decreases.
..Kerr.. 07/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, July 9
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Friday, July 10
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Saturday, July 11
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Sunday, July 12
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, July 13
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, July 14
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, July 15
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, July 16
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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