Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, March 24
Outlook Summary
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible today across parts of north/central Florida and late tonight over portions of coastal Washington, but organized severe thunderstorms are not expected.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 241200
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026
Valid 241300Z - 251200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible today across parts of north/central Florida and late tonight over portions of coastal Washington, but organized severe thunderstorms are not expected.
Synopsis and Discussion
Surface high pressure will remain entrenched over the eastern CONUS today, with low-level moisture sufficient to support thunderstorms confined to parts of the FL Peninsula along/south of a front. Large-scale ascent will remain weak across this region through the afternoon, with multiple small-scale perturbations embedded within mean upper troughing across the eastern states remaining displaced to the north of FL. Even so, isolated thunderstorms may develop this afternoon across parts of north/central FL, with some preference for initiation along the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. Weak low/mid-level flow and related modest deep-layer shear are expected to limit the threat for organized severe convection. Isolated thunderstorms may also occur late tonight into early Wednesday morning across parts of coastal WA as strong forcing and cool temperatures aloft associated with a mid/upper-level jet overspread this region.
..Gleason/Kerr.. 03/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Wednesday, March 25
Outlook Summary
Severe storms are not expected through Wednesday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 240550
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe storms are not expected through Wednesday night.
Synopsis
A stout upper-level ridge will gradually shift east towards the southern Rockies through Wednesday. Broad-scale subsidence ahead of the ridge will help maintain dry conditions for most areas of the country. However, a few regions will see at least isolated thunderstorm chances. Deep convection appears most probable across portions of central Florida Wednesday afternoon where weak low-level convergence within a stalled frontal zone (aided by localized lift along sea-breeze boundaries) will support a few thunderstorms. This activity should remain sub-severe due to weak winds through much of the profile. A weak upper disturbance propagating into the Midwest/OH Valley overnight will likely support isolated thunderstorms after 00z as lift overspreads the northern fringe of returning low-level moisture, though buoyancy profiles will likely remain too meager to support robust/deep convection. Similarly, very cold temperatures aloft associated with a low-amplitude upper wave may support shallow convection and occasional lightning flashes across parts of the Pacific Northwest during the afternoon and evening hours. Strong diurnal heating/mixing along the slopes of the CO Rockies may support very isolated convection late Wednesday afternoon. Confidence in thunder potential is low due to very weak/nebulous forcing for ascent, but forecast soundings and convective signals from recent CAM guidance suggests at least a 10% chance for thunderstorms.
..Moore.. 03/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Thursday, March 26
Outlook Summary
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected late Thursday afternoon and evening across parts of the Midwest and Ohio River Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 240728
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected late Thursday afternoon and evening across parts of the Midwest and Ohio River Valley.
Synopsis
A pronounced upper ridge will continue to shift east over the next 48-72 hours towards the south-central CONUS. As this occurs, zonal flow across the northern Rockies will promote lee troughing and a strengthening southerly return flow regime through Thursday. Dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s may spread as far north as southern Michigan by early Thursday afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along the cold front as it pushes east/southeast into the returning moisture.
Strong low-level forcing along the frontal boundary will likely favor convective bands and upscale growth into the evening hours with a predominant severe/damaging wind threat. However, some deterministic solutions suggest a combination of 40-50 knot deep-layer shear vectors oriented off the frontal boundary over the Midwest, lingering pre-frontal capping, and limited broad-scale ascent through a deep layer may promote semi-discrete convection. While confidence in this scenario is limited at this range, a threat for sustained supercells with a significant hail, and perhaps some tornado, threat could emerge.
Based on a consensus of deterministic and ensemble guidance, the severe risk appears greatest across central IL into IN and western OH where strong QPF and convective environment signals (SCP values of 4-6) are noted. However, some severe risk is expected southwestward along the front into MO and far eastern KS where convection may be more isolated. A damaging wind threat may persist into parts of PA and WV overnight, but waning buoyancy eastward towards the Appalachians limits confidence in the eastern extent of the severe threat.
..Moore.. 03/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Friday, March 27
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, March 27 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, March 28 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, March 29 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, March 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, March 31 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240842 SPC AC 240842
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
Widespread severe thunderstorm potential appears limited through the remainder of March amid persistent upper-level ridging across the central and western CONUS. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may materialize across portions of the TN Valley and Mid-Atlantic on D4/Friday as a strong cold front pushes east/southeast towards the East Coast and northern Gulf. However, limited mid-level lapse rates across the southeastern U.S. will likely modulate the potential for severe thunderstorms. Surface high pressure building across the eastern Plains and OH Valley in the wake of the cold front - combined with the re-amplification of the upper ridge over the western U.S. - will further limit severe thunderstorm potential for much of the weekend and very early next week.
A gradual eastward translation of the surface high will likely promote the initial stages of moisture into the central U.S. around the D7/Mon or D8/Tues time frame. Most deterministic solutions and ensemble systems hint at an upper-level regime shift as the upper ridge shifts east and southwesterly flow becomes more prominent over the Southwest. This may support some increase in severe weather potential by the middle of next week, and possibly as early D8/Tuesday, but predictability at this range appears very limited.
..Moore.. 03/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, March 28
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, March 27 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, March 28 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, March 29 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, March 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, March 31 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240842 SPC AC 240842
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
Widespread severe thunderstorm potential appears limited through the remainder of March amid persistent upper-level ridging across the central and western CONUS. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may materialize across portions of the TN Valley and Mid-Atlantic on D4/Friday as a strong cold front pushes east/southeast towards the East Coast and northern Gulf. However, limited mid-level lapse rates across the southeastern U.S. will likely modulate the potential for severe thunderstorms. Surface high pressure building across the eastern Plains and OH Valley in the wake of the cold front - combined with the re-amplification of the upper ridge over the western U.S. - will further limit severe thunderstorm potential for much of the weekend and very early next week.
A gradual eastward translation of the surface high will likely promote the initial stages of moisture into the central U.S. around the D7/Mon or D8/Tues time frame. Most deterministic solutions and ensemble systems hint at an upper-level regime shift as the upper ridge shifts east and southwesterly flow becomes more prominent over the Southwest. This may support some increase in severe weather potential by the middle of next week, and possibly as early D8/Tuesday, but predictability at this range appears very limited.
..Moore.. 03/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, March 29
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, March 27 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, March 28 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, March 29 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, March 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, March 31 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240842 SPC AC 240842
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
Widespread severe thunderstorm potential appears limited through the remainder of March amid persistent upper-level ridging across the central and western CONUS. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may materialize across portions of the TN Valley and Mid-Atlantic on D4/Friday as a strong cold front pushes east/southeast towards the East Coast and northern Gulf. However, limited mid-level lapse rates across the southeastern U.S. will likely modulate the potential for severe thunderstorms. Surface high pressure building across the eastern Plains and OH Valley in the wake of the cold front - combined with the re-amplification of the upper ridge over the western U.S. - will further limit severe thunderstorm potential for much of the weekend and very early next week.
A gradual eastward translation of the surface high will likely promote the initial stages of moisture into the central U.S. around the D7/Mon or D8/Tues time frame. Most deterministic solutions and ensemble systems hint at an upper-level regime shift as the upper ridge shifts east and southwesterly flow becomes more prominent over the Southwest. This may support some increase in severe weather potential by the middle of next week, and possibly as early D8/Tuesday, but predictability at this range appears very limited.
..Moore.. 03/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, March 30
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, March 27 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, March 28 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, March 29 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, March 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, March 31 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240842 SPC AC 240842
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
Widespread severe thunderstorm potential appears limited through the remainder of March amid persistent upper-level ridging across the central and western CONUS. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may materialize across portions of the TN Valley and Mid-Atlantic on D4/Friday as a strong cold front pushes east/southeast towards the East Coast and northern Gulf. However, limited mid-level lapse rates across the southeastern U.S. will likely modulate the potential for severe thunderstorms. Surface high pressure building across the eastern Plains and OH Valley in the wake of the cold front - combined with the re-amplification of the upper ridge over the western U.S. - will further limit severe thunderstorm potential for much of the weekend and very early next week.
A gradual eastward translation of the surface high will likely promote the initial stages of moisture into the central U.S. around the D7/Mon or D8/Tues time frame. Most deterministic solutions and ensemble systems hint at an upper-level regime shift as the upper ridge shifts east and southwesterly flow becomes more prominent over the Southwest. This may support some increase in severe weather potential by the middle of next week, and possibly as early D8/Tuesday, but predictability at this range appears very limited.
..Moore.. 03/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, March 31
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, March 27 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, March 28 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, March 29 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, March 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, March 31 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240842 SPC AC 240842
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
Widespread severe thunderstorm potential appears limited through the remainder of March amid persistent upper-level ridging across the central and western CONUS. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may materialize across portions of the TN Valley and Mid-Atlantic on D4/Friday as a strong cold front pushes east/southeast towards the East Coast and northern Gulf. However, limited mid-level lapse rates across the southeastern U.S. will likely modulate the potential for severe thunderstorms. Surface high pressure building across the eastern Plains and OH Valley in the wake of the cold front - combined with the re-amplification of the upper ridge over the western U.S. - will further limit severe thunderstorm potential for much of the weekend and very early next week.
A gradual eastward translation of the surface high will likely promote the initial stages of moisture into the central U.S. around the D7/Mon or D8/Tues time frame. Most deterministic solutions and ensemble systems hint at an upper-level regime shift as the upper ridge shifts east and southwesterly flow becomes more prominent over the Southwest. This may support some increase in severe weather potential by the middle of next week, and possibly as early D8/Tuesday, but predictability at this range appears very limited.
..Moore.. 03/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, March 24
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Wednesday, March 25
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Thursday, March 26
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Friday, March 27
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, March 28
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, March 29
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, March 30
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, March 31
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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