Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, October 30
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible in parts of Arizona today.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 301240
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
Valid 301300Z - 311200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ARIZONA
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible in parts of Arizona today.
Synopsis
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a pair of shortwave troughs within the extensive southwesterly flow aloft that covers much of the western CONUS. The easternmost shortwave is moving from central Mexico into TX and the westernmost shortwave is just off the southern CA coast. The easternmost shortwave is forecast to progress northeastward across TX today, contributing to showers and thunderstorms from the TX Hill Country to the TX Gulf Coast. Moist southerly flow is anticipated throughout the period across the central and southern Plains, including the wake of the lead shortwave when warm-air advection associated with an strengthening low-level jet will support increasing thunderstorm coverage from the central Plains into the Mid MO Valley this evening. Limited buoyancy should keep the severe thunderstorm potential very low.
Arizona
Shortwave trough currently just off the southern CA coast is forecast to continue northeastward today, likely moving through the Lower CO Valley and into AZ this afternoon and evening. Modest low-level moisture advection will precede this shortwave, bringing the low to mid 60s dewpoints currently along the western AZ/Mexico border northward into more of southern AZ. The highest afternoon dewpoints will likely be in the mid 60s from southwest into central AZ. This anomalously high low-level moisture will help support moderate afternoon buoyancy, despite widespread cloud cover and poor lapse rates.
The strongest vertical shear is anticipated from now through the early afternoon, resulting in some temporal displacement between the stronger shear and greater buoyancy. Even so, there appears to be enough overlap to support some stronger storms this afternoon from southwest into south-central AZ. Primary threat is damaging gusts, although a few instances of hail are possible as well.
..Mosier/Moore.. 10/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Saturday, October 31
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 300540
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.
Discussion
Shortwave ridging will occur from the Northern Plains to the Upper Great Lakes on Saturday as a shortwave trough exits the Maritimes and multiple waves converge across the West. In the wake of the northeastern trough, high pressure will become centered over the Mid Atlantic, with dry low-level trajectories over much of the eastern CONUS.
Easterly surface winds will maintain a boundary near the Gulf Coast, though southerly winds may bring upper 60s well inland across eastern TX into LA. Here, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be likely within a weak low-level warm advection regime. Lapse rates will be poor with little if any severe potential.
Elsewhere, cool temperatures aloft will exist along the West Coast and into much of the Intermountain West as an amplified upper trough moves ashore late in the day over WA/OR/CA, and another southern-stream wave approaches southern CA and northern Baja overnight. While shear will increase across most of the region, instability will be quite weak, with isolated lightning possible from eastern ID southward across the Great Basin late in the day and overnight.
..Jewell.. 10/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Sunday, November 1
Outlook Summary
A few severe storms are anticipated from central New Mexico into parts of western Texas late Sunday into Sunday night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 300730
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO…AND SMALL PARTS OF WESTERN TEXAS
### SUMMARY
A few severe storms are anticipated from central New Mexico into parts of western Texas late Sunday into Sunday night.
Discussion
An amplified upper trough will move across the Great Basin on Sunday, while another wave to the south moves across northern Baja CA and into AZ. By late in the day, gusty south winds will increase across the Rockies and into the southern High Plains, as low pressure develops over WY through 00Z.
During the late evening and overnight, a prominent cold front will move out of AZ and into NM as the parent wave aloft continues northeastward across NM and into the central to southern High Plains. The surface low is forecast to deepen overnight into CO, with a surface trough into eastern NM and western TX through 12Z Monday.
After a full day of heating, low-level lapse rates will be steep, and gusty winds overnight should maintain relatively warm temperatures ahead of the cold front. Dewpoints from the upper 40s to mid 50s F should also be maintained ahead of the front, with thunderstorms developing near the cold front after about 03-06Z. Deep-layer shear will be strong, with supercell wind profiles. Instability will be marginal over central NM, perhaps supporting locally severe gusts or marginal hail, with a potentially greater concentration of severe storms into eastern NM where low-level moisture will be more abundant with MUCAPE over 1000 J/kg. The strongest cooling aloft will spread over northern NM and into the TX Panhandle, and this is where a potentially greater hail and wind threat could develop. Both cellular and possibly QLCS storm mode will be possible, with storms tied to the cold front. A small corridor of higher severe probabilities could be added in later outlooks as trends warrant.
..Jewell.. 10/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Monday, November 2
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, November 2 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, November 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, November 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, November 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, November 6 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300859 SPC AC 300859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
A large positive-tilt upper trough will move into the Plains on Monday/D4, with a surface low moving from the central Plains into the Upper MS Valley. A substantial low-level moisture plume with mid 60s F dewpoints will spread north ahead of the developing low and cold front, aided by 40+ kt south/southwest 850 mb winds. The main severe threat should develop during the afternoon along the cold front, where MUCAPE on the order of 1000 J/kg will be likely. Effective deep-layer shear will be near 50 kt, with sufficient low-level turning with height to support both supercells and linear structures late. Damaging winds and perhaps a couple tornadoes will be possible, with sporadic large hail as well.
By Tue/D5, the trough is forecast to become more amplified, with more of a meridional flow pattern aloft spreading across the MS Valley. Substantial rain and thunderstorms are likely along the cold front and elongated surface trough. There is some potential for damaging winds/bows from eastern TX into AR, LA, and MS, but substantial uncertainty exists given marginal instability and widespread clouds/precip.
This system will generally swing eastward across the southeastern states from Wed/D6 into Thu/D7, with at least low-end potential over some of the Gulf Coast states.
..Jewell.. 10/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, November 3
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, November 2 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, November 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, November 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, November 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, November 6 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300859 SPC AC 300859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
A large positive-tilt upper trough will move into the Plains on Monday/D4, with a surface low moving from the central Plains into the Upper MS Valley. A substantial low-level moisture plume with mid 60s F dewpoints will spread north ahead of the developing low and cold front, aided by 40+ kt south/southwest 850 mb winds. The main severe threat should develop during the afternoon along the cold front, where MUCAPE on the order of 1000 J/kg will be likely. Effective deep-layer shear will be near 50 kt, with sufficient low-level turning with height to support both supercells and linear structures late. Damaging winds and perhaps a couple tornadoes will be possible, with sporadic large hail as well.
By Tue/D5, the trough is forecast to become more amplified, with more of a meridional flow pattern aloft spreading across the MS Valley. Substantial rain and thunderstorms are likely along the cold front and elongated surface trough. There is some potential for damaging winds/bows from eastern TX into AR, LA, and MS, but substantial uncertainty exists given marginal instability and widespread clouds/precip.
This system will generally swing eastward across the southeastern states from Wed/D6 into Thu/D7, with at least low-end potential over some of the Gulf Coast states.
..Jewell.. 10/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, November 4
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, November 2 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, November 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, November 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, November 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, November 6 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300859 SPC AC 300859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
A large positive-tilt upper trough will move into the Plains on Monday/D4, with a surface low moving from the central Plains into the Upper MS Valley. A substantial low-level moisture plume with mid 60s F dewpoints will spread north ahead of the developing low and cold front, aided by 40+ kt south/southwest 850 mb winds. The main severe threat should develop during the afternoon along the cold front, where MUCAPE on the order of 1000 J/kg will be likely. Effective deep-layer shear will be near 50 kt, with sufficient low-level turning with height to support both supercells and linear structures late. Damaging winds and perhaps a couple tornadoes will be possible, with sporadic large hail as well.
By Tue/D5, the trough is forecast to become more amplified, with more of a meridional flow pattern aloft spreading across the MS Valley. Substantial rain and thunderstorms are likely along the cold front and elongated surface trough. There is some potential for damaging winds/bows from eastern TX into AR, LA, and MS, but substantial uncertainty exists given marginal instability and widespread clouds/precip.
This system will generally swing eastward across the southeastern states from Wed/D6 into Thu/D7, with at least low-end potential over some of the Gulf Coast states.
..Jewell.. 10/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, November 5
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, November 2 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, November 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, November 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, November 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, November 6 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300859 SPC AC 300859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
A large positive-tilt upper trough will move into the Plains on Monday/D4, with a surface low moving from the central Plains into the Upper MS Valley. A substantial low-level moisture plume with mid 60s F dewpoints will spread north ahead of the developing low and cold front, aided by 40+ kt south/southwest 850 mb winds. The main severe threat should develop during the afternoon along the cold front, where MUCAPE on the order of 1000 J/kg will be likely. Effective deep-layer shear will be near 50 kt, with sufficient low-level turning with height to support both supercells and linear structures late. Damaging winds and perhaps a couple tornadoes will be possible, with sporadic large hail as well.
By Tue/D5, the trough is forecast to become more amplified, with more of a meridional flow pattern aloft spreading across the MS Valley. Substantial rain and thunderstorms are likely along the cold front and elongated surface trough. There is some potential for damaging winds/bows from eastern TX into AR, LA, and MS, but substantial uncertainty exists given marginal instability and widespread clouds/precip.
This system will generally swing eastward across the southeastern states from Wed/D6 into Thu/D7, with at least low-end potential over some of the Gulf Coast states.
..Jewell.. 10/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, November 6
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, November 2 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, November 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, November 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, November 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, November 6 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300859 SPC AC 300859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
A large positive-tilt upper trough will move into the Plains on Monday/D4, with a surface low moving from the central Plains into the Upper MS Valley. A substantial low-level moisture plume with mid 60s F dewpoints will spread north ahead of the developing low and cold front, aided by 40+ kt south/southwest 850 mb winds. The main severe threat should develop during the afternoon along the cold front, where MUCAPE on the order of 1000 J/kg will be likely. Effective deep-layer shear will be near 50 kt, with sufficient low-level turning with height to support both supercells and linear structures late. Damaging winds and perhaps a couple tornadoes will be possible, with sporadic large hail as well.
By Tue/D5, the trough is forecast to become more amplified, with more of a meridional flow pattern aloft spreading across the MS Valley. Substantial rain and thunderstorms are likely along the cold front and elongated surface trough. There is some potential for damaging winds/bows from eastern TX into AR, LA, and MS, but substantial uncertainty exists given marginal instability and widespread clouds/precip.
This system will generally swing eastward across the southeastern states from Wed/D6 into Thu/D7, with at least low-end potential over some of the Gulf Coast states.
..Jewell.. 10/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, October 30
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Saturday, October 31
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Sunday, November 1
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Monday, November 2
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Tuesday, November 3
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, November 4
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, November 5
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, November 6
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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