Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, August 22
Outlook Summary
Scattered damaging gusts are likely across the Ohio Valley with more isolated damaging wind potential extending westward into the Mid Mississippi Valley and southern Plains this afternoon/evening. Isolated hail and damaging winds are also possible over the Front Range, Great Basin and parts of the northern Rockies.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 220601
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Scattered damaging gusts are likely across the Ohio Valley with more isolated damaging wind potential extending westward into the Mid Mississippi Valley and southern Plains this afternoon/evening. Isolated hail and damaging winds are also possible over the Front Range, Great Basin and parts of the northern Rockies.
OH and TN Valleys
An upper low initially over the western Great Lakes is forecast to deepen as it moves southeastward today and tonight. A belt of stronger mid-level flow behind the trough will move into parts of the Plains and Midwest. A weak surface low and trailing cold front will move southeastward across the Lakes and into the upper OH Valley through the day. Ahead of the front, upper 60s to 70s F surface dewpoints and filtered diurnal heating should allow for moderate destabilization, sufficient for scattered to numerous thunderstorms by early afternoon. Despite generally modest to weak deep-layer shear, steepening of lower/mid-level lapse will support stronger downdrafts within organized multicell clusters. With time, some upscale growth into linear segments is also possible and would also favor a risk for scattered damaging gusts. This appears most likely across central/eastern OH and KY into western PA/WV.
Farther south, more isolated storm coverage is expected ahead of the front from the western Carolina Piedmont to the TN Valley. Steep low-level lapse rates and enhanced low and mid-level northwesterly flow will still support some risk for isolated damaging gusts.
Ozarks/Mid MS Valley
A weak convectively augmented shortwave trough is forecast to move from southeastern KS and southern MO into northern AR along western portions of a weak surface front by midday. Ahead of these features, a very warm and humid air mass will be in place, which should allow substantial diurnal destabilization and eventual thunderstorm development. Enhanced northwesterly flow may help organize a few thunderstorm clusters as they spread eastward from the Ozarks into the ArkLaTex and mid MS Valley. Damaging wind gusts and some hail are possible.
Front Range and adjacent High Plains
Post-frontal upslope flow, aided by a weak short wave impulse on the eastern periphery of the upper ridge will support thunderstorm development along/east of the Laramie mountains through Colorado Front Range this afternoon. On the fringes of the stronger northwest flow aloft, deep-layer shear will be marginal for storm organization. Steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate buoyancy could support some hail with the stronger updrafts. Isolated damaging gusts are also possible, especially with any more persistent thunderstorm clusters.
Southern Plains
Very hot surface temperatures (100+ F) are likely across parts of western North TX into southwestern and central OK this afternoon. Low-level convergence near a thermally enhanced surface low and weak front will aid high-based thunderstorm development late afternoon into the early evening. Weak buoyancy atop the steep low-level lapse rates and deep mixed layer will favor very strong downdrafts within the high-based storms. Isolated severe gusts (possibly 65-75 mph gusts) associated with microbursts are possible as convection is forecast to move southward through the evening.
Northern Rockies to the Great Basin.
An upper low along the western periphery of the substantial mid-level ridge over the Southwest will migrate northward toward the international border as a belt of stronger mid-level flow overspreads a plume of monsoon moisture from the Great Basin to the Northern Rockies. Ascent from the upper wave and heating of the modestly moist air mass should allow for weak destabilization and scattered thunderstorm development. Steep lapse rates could support isolated severe gusts.
Isolated hail is also possible with scattered thunderstorms from eastern WA into the ID panhandle. Closer to the upper trough and beneath strong mid-level flow, elongated hodographs may promote organization with transient supercell structures. Cooler mid-level temperatures could favor hail production despite modest overall moisture.
..Lyons/Weinman.. 08/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Sunday, August 23
Outlook Summary
Strong thunderstorm activity posing at least some risk for severe hail and wind appears possible across parts of the northern Rockies and Great Plains, and across parts of the eastern Great Lakes to the Northeast, Sunday through Sunday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 220557
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST…THE NORTHERN PLAINS…AND MONTANA.
### SUMMARY
Strong thunderstorm activity posing at least some risk for severe hail and wind appears possible across parts of the northern Rockies and Great Plains, and across parts of the eastern Great Lakes to the Northeast, Sunday through Sunday night.
Montana
A deamplifying mid-level shortwave trough will move from the Pacific Northwest into eastern British Columbia on Sunday. As this occurs, a lee cyclone across Montana will advect moisture northwestward into central Montana with some 60F dewpoints expected. Moderate mid-level flow along the southern periphery of this mid-level trough will overspread a weak to moderately unstable airmass across Montana. The majority of the forcing will be farther north across Canada, however, weak height falls and terrain driven circulations should be sufficient enough for storm development by mid-afternoon across central Montana. 30 to 35 knots of shear should be sufficient for storm organization including some supercell potential. In addition, strong heating will result in steep lapse rates and an environment supporting damaging winds.
Dakotas
Moderate to potentially strong instability is forecast across central South Dakota and vicinity on Sunday afternoon, southwest of a frontal zone. Persistent southwesterly 1km flow is expected for much of the day. Isentropic ascent within this zone will support the potential for thunderstorms for much of the day. Thunderstorm coverage/intensity may increase as a mid-level shortwave trough approaches the region during the afternoon. In addition, the low-level jet is expected to strengthen during the evening which will result in more widespread storm development. The environment, featuring moderate to strong instability and 35-45 kts of effective shear, within a zone of moderate forcing, may result in some strong storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts.
Eastern Great Lakes into the Northeast
A strong mid-level trough across the Great Lakes will become a closed upper low across southern Ontario on Sunday. An individual mid-level trough revolving around the primary trough will become negatively tilted as it pivots through the Northeast. A secondary mid-level shortwave trough will dig into the western portion of this trough and emerge around the base of the trough late Sunday evening. These features amid the deepening upper low will result in persistent ascent across the region where weak instability will also be present. Shear may be relatively weak (20 to 25 knots), which may limit overall storm organization. However, the cool temperatures aloft should be sufficient for isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts.
Arkansas and Vicinity
Most guidance shows a moderate low-level jet and isentropic ascent across eastern Oklahoma and into Arkansas late Sunday night and early Monday. Forecast soundings, other than the HiRes NAM, show relatively meager instability. Therefore, while thunderstorms are likely along this zone given the strong forcing, severe storms may struggle amid relatively weak instability. Therefore, no probabilities have been added at this time.
..Bentley.. 08/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Monday, August 24
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, August 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, August 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, August 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, August 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, August 28 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210854 SPC AC 210854
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough will move across the Northeast on Monday and the surface front will be mostly offshore, reducing the severe weather threat. As this trough departs, ridging will build across the Rockies. This will eventually set up a pattern featuring individual mid-level shortwave troughs within northwesterly flow from the northern Plains to the Midwest. Some severe weather will likely occur with mid-level shortwave troughs within this flow, but these details likely will not become more clear until the short term.
Model consensus indicates a stronger mid-level shortwave trough traversing the Pacific Northwest on D7/Thursday. This pattern would be favorable for some severe weather threat across Montana, but at this time, it appears moisture will stay farther east. Therefore, no severe weather is anticipated.
..Bentley.. 08/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, August 25
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, August 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, August 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, August 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, August 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, August 28 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210854 SPC AC 210854
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough will move across the Northeast on Monday and the surface front will be mostly offshore, reducing the severe weather threat. As this trough departs, ridging will build across the Rockies. This will eventually set up a pattern featuring individual mid-level shortwave troughs within northwesterly flow from the northern Plains to the Midwest. Some severe weather will likely occur with mid-level shortwave troughs within this flow, but these details likely will not become more clear until the short term.
Model consensus indicates a stronger mid-level shortwave trough traversing the Pacific Northwest on D7/Thursday. This pattern would be favorable for some severe weather threat across Montana, but at this time, it appears moisture will stay farther east. Therefore, no severe weather is anticipated.
..Bentley.. 08/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, August 26
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, August 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, August 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, August 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, August 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, August 28 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210854 SPC AC 210854
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough will move across the Northeast on Monday and the surface front will be mostly offshore, reducing the severe weather threat. As this trough departs, ridging will build across the Rockies. This will eventually set up a pattern featuring individual mid-level shortwave troughs within northwesterly flow from the northern Plains to the Midwest. Some severe weather will likely occur with mid-level shortwave troughs within this flow, but these details likely will not become more clear until the short term.
Model consensus indicates a stronger mid-level shortwave trough traversing the Pacific Northwest on D7/Thursday. This pattern would be favorable for some severe weather threat across Montana, but at this time, it appears moisture will stay farther east. Therefore, no severe weather is anticipated.
..Bentley.. 08/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, August 27
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, August 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, August 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, August 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, August 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, August 28 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210854 SPC AC 210854
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough will move across the Northeast on Monday and the surface front will be mostly offshore, reducing the severe weather threat. As this trough departs, ridging will build across the Rockies. This will eventually set up a pattern featuring individual mid-level shortwave troughs within northwesterly flow from the northern Plains to the Midwest. Some severe weather will likely occur with mid-level shortwave troughs within this flow, but these details likely will not become more clear until the short term.
Model consensus indicates a stronger mid-level shortwave trough traversing the Pacific Northwest on D7/Thursday. This pattern would be favorable for some severe weather threat across Montana, but at this time, it appears moisture will stay farther east. Therefore, no severe weather is anticipated.
..Bentley.. 08/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, August 28
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, August 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, August 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, August 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, August 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, August 28 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210854 SPC AC 210854
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough will move across the Northeast on Monday and the surface front will be mostly offshore, reducing the severe weather threat. As this trough departs, ridging will build across the Rockies. This will eventually set up a pattern featuring individual mid-level shortwave troughs within northwesterly flow from the northern Plains to the Midwest. Some severe weather will likely occur with mid-level shortwave troughs within this flow, but these details likely will not become more clear until the short term.
Model consensus indicates a stronger mid-level shortwave trough traversing the Pacific Northwest on D7/Thursday. This pattern would be favorable for some severe weather threat across Montana, but at this time, it appears moisture will stay farther east. Therefore, no severe weather is anticipated.
..Bentley.. 08/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, August 22
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Sunday, August 23
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Monday, August 24
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, August 25
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, August 26
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, August 27
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, August 28
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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