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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Thursday, May 14

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms with hail and severe wind gusts are possible from Kansas/Missouri into west Texas.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 141200

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms with hail and severe wind gusts are possible from Kansas/Missouri into west Texas.

KS

An upper ridge is centered over the central/southern Plains this morning, but will break down through the forecast period as a series of weak shortwave troughs emanate from the Rockies across the central Plains. Meanwhile, strong southerly low-level winds will develop across TX/OK/KS, aiding in northward return of moisture and considerable destabilization. The western periphery of the returning moisture will be noted by a diffuse dryline from western KS into western OK, where temperatures will climb into the mid/upper 90s today.

By late afternoon, forecast parameters will be quite favorable for supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds across much of central KS. However, weak large scale forcing and a formidable cap to the east of the dryline significantly limits the confidence in thunderstorm development/maintenance. Any storm that forms will pose a severe risk, but coverage may be very isolated. Have shrunk the risk areas, but will maintain the ongoing SLGT for now.

West TX/OK

The aforementioned dryline will extend southward across western OK into west TX. Hot and dry conditions will develop to the west of the dryline, where model consensus suggesting scattered high-based thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon. Forecast soundings show near dry-adiabatic low and mid level lapse rates, and sufficient CAPE for a risk of dry microbursts or occasional multicell clusters capable of damaging winds. This activity is likely to struggle as it spreads east of the dryline this evening due to a strong capping inversion.

..Hart/Wendt.. 05/14/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

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Outlook for Friday, May 15

Outlook Summary

Severe storms with large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible Friday afternoon and evening in parts of the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 140600

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Severe storms with large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible Friday afternoon and evening in parts of the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley.

Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley

West to west-southwesterly mid-level flow will remain in place on Friday across the central U.S, as a subtle shortwave trough moves into the central Plains. Ahead of this feature, moisture advection will raise surface dewpoints into the mid to upper 60s F from the eastern part of the central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. A surface low will deepen over far western Oklahoma, with an inverted trough extending northward into central Kansas and northeastward into southeast Nebraska. Isolated convective initiation is expected near and to the east of the surface trough during the late afternoon. Convective coverage should gradually increase in the evening as low-level warm advection strengthens.

By late afternoon, model forecast show a pocket of moderate to strong instability over northeast Kansas. Forecast soundings at 00Z in this area have MLCAPE in the 3500 to 4000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear near 35 knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be in the 8 to 8.5 C/km range. This environment will be favorable for supercells with large hail, and hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible within the more intense cores. Supercells will also be capable of severe wind gusts. During the late evening and overnight, a severe threat may continue over parts of the central Plains, as the low-level jet strengthens. Isolated severe storms will be possible in northwestern Kansas late in the period, as a secondary shortwave approaches.

Further south into parts of western Oklahoma, a capping inversion is forecast to be in place during the late afternoon and early evening. However, lapse rates are forecast to be very steep with some models showing 700-500 mb lapse rates near 9 C/km. In addition, moderate deep-layer shear is forecast. If a cell can initiate in spite of the cap, then supercells with large hail would be possible.

Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley

Low-level moisture will gradually increase across the mid to upper Mississippi Valley Friday afternoon and evening. Although instability is forecast to remain weak, isolated thunderstorms may initiate as a low-level jet moves into the region from the southwest. By mid to late evening, MUCAPE is forecast to increase into the 1000 to 1500 J/kg with effective shear near 40 knots over much of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. For this reason, isolated severe storms will be possible, with strong wind gusts and hail as the primary threats.

..Broyles.. 05/14/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Saturday, May 16

Outlook Summary

Severe storms capable of large to very large hail, wind damage and tornadoes will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley. Hailstones up to 3 inches in diameter and a strong tornado will be possible.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 140745

Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY

CORRECTED FOR WORDING

SUMMARY

Severe storms capable of large to very large hail, wind damage and tornadoes will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley. Hailstones up to 3 inches in diameter and a strong tornado will be possible.

Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley

An upper-level trough will dig southeastward into the western U.S. on Saturday, as mid-level flow becomes southwesterly over the central states. At the surface, a low will deepen in the central High Plains, as a moist airmass remains in place from the southern and central Plains eastward into the Mississippi Valley. A shortwave trough is forecast to move into the central High Plains Saturday afternoon. Ahead of the trough, thunderstorms are expected to form in far eastern Colorado during the mid to late afternoon. These storms are forecast to expand in coverage and move eastward across the central Plains in the late afternoon and early evening, where severe storm development will be possible.

By late afternoon, an axis of moderate to strong instability is forecast from west-central Kansas east-northeastward across northern Kansas, southeast Nebraska into far northwestern Missouri. Forecast soundings near this axis of instability in far northern Kansas at 00Z, have MLCAPE in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range with 0-6 km shear around 50 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This environment will be favorable for supercells with large to very large hail. The more intense supercell updrafts may be capable of hailstones up to 3 inches in diameter. By early evening, a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet is forecast to develop from northwest Oklahoma into southern Kansas. At this time, NAM forecast soundings increase 0-3 km storm-relative helicity into the 300 to 400 m2/s2 range across parts of northern Kansas. However, other model solutions keep this low-level jet further south in the early evening, suggesting there is uncertainty concerning severe threat coverage and magnitude. At this time, there does appears to be potential for tornadoes, and possibly a strong tornado. This would be the case if the more aggressive solutions with the low-level jet pan out. Severe wind gusts will also be possible with supercells. During the evening, the current thinking is that a severe convective cluster will move east-northeastward from the central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley, where large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible.

Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys

West to west-southwest mid-level flow will be in place from the Great Lakes southward into the Ohio Valley on Saturday. A subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the trough, low-level moisture advection will take place, with surface dewpoints likely increasing into the mid 60s F over much of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the late afternoon along the leading edge of the shortwave trough, with storms moving eastward across the region during the evening. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast over an unstable airmass with steep lapse rates. This should support an isolated severe threat with damaging wind gusts and hail possible.

..Broyles.. 05/14/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Sunday, May 17

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140901 SPC AC 140901

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/SUN…D5/MON

### DISCUSSION

Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5

An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the Intermountain West on Sunday, as a subtle shortwave trough moves northeastward across the Great Plains. Ahead of the trough a moist and unstable airmass is forecast across much of the Great Plains eastward into the Mississippi Valley. Scattered elevated strong thunderstorms will be possible early in the day from the northern Plains eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Southward into the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley, strong surface heating is forecast. Some models suggest MLCAPE could peak in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. In addition, a broad 40 to 50 knot low-level jet is forecast to strengthen late Sunday afternoon. This, combined with moderate to strong deep-layer shear over much of the moist sector will be favorable for severe storms potentially over a large area. A severe weather outbreak will be possible from the afternoon and evening into the early overnight period. The setup appears favorable for supercells with tornadoes, large to very large hail and wind damage.

On Monday, model forecasts eject a negatively-tilted upper-level trough into the central Plains. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be located from the southern and central Plains northeastward into the Upper Midwest. A mid-level jet is forecast to also eject northeastward across the central Plains as a broad low-level jet strengthens during the late afternoon. Thunderstorm development is expected along the western edge of the airmass near a dryline over west-central Kansas and southeast Nebraska. Thunderstorms that move into the strong low-level flow in the late afternoon and early evening will have potential to be supercells with large to very large hail, and tornadoes. Severe wind gusts will also be possible. A severe weather outbreak will be possible from Monday afternoon into evening and overnight period.

Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8

On Tuesday, mid-level southwesterly flow is forecast over the central U.S., with a cold front moving southeastward through the central Plains and Upper Midwest. Ahead of this front, surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to the lower 70s F are expected to contribute to moderate to strong instability. Thunderstorm development with a severe threat will be possible along and ahead of the front during the afternoon and evening from the northern part of the southern Plains northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley.

On Wednesday and Thursday, the cold front is forecast to move slowly southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon and evening. However, uncertainty concerning the exact location of the front is substantial at this extended range.

..Broyles.. 05/14/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, May 18

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140901 SPC AC 140901

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/SUN…D5/MON

### DISCUSSION

Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5

An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the Intermountain West on Sunday, as a subtle shortwave trough moves northeastward across the Great Plains. Ahead of the trough a moist and unstable airmass is forecast across much of the Great Plains eastward into the Mississippi Valley. Scattered elevated strong thunderstorms will be possible early in the day from the northern Plains eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Southward into the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley, strong surface heating is forecast. Some models suggest MLCAPE could peak in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. In addition, a broad 40 to 50 knot low-level jet is forecast to strengthen late Sunday afternoon. This, combined with moderate to strong deep-layer shear over much of the moist sector will be favorable for severe storms potentially over a large area. A severe weather outbreak will be possible from the afternoon and evening into the early overnight period. The setup appears favorable for supercells with tornadoes, large to very large hail and wind damage.

On Monday, model forecasts eject a negatively-tilted upper-level trough into the central Plains. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be located from the southern and central Plains northeastward into the Upper Midwest. A mid-level jet is forecast to also eject northeastward across the central Plains as a broad low-level jet strengthens during the late afternoon. Thunderstorm development is expected along the western edge of the airmass near a dryline over west-central Kansas and southeast Nebraska. Thunderstorms that move into the strong low-level flow in the late afternoon and early evening will have potential to be supercells with large to very large hail, and tornadoes. Severe wind gusts will also be possible. A severe weather outbreak will be possible from Monday afternoon into evening and overnight period.

Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8

On Tuesday, mid-level southwesterly flow is forecast over the central U.S., with a cold front moving southeastward through the central Plains and Upper Midwest. Ahead of this front, surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to the lower 70s F are expected to contribute to moderate to strong instability. Thunderstorm development with a severe threat will be possible along and ahead of the front during the afternoon and evening from the northern part of the southern Plains northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley.

On Wednesday and Thursday, the cold front is forecast to move slowly southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon and evening. However, uncertainty concerning the exact location of the front is substantial at this extended range.

..Broyles.. 05/14/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, May 19

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140901 SPC AC 140901

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/SUN…D5/MON

### DISCUSSION

Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5

An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the Intermountain West on Sunday, as a subtle shortwave trough moves northeastward across the Great Plains. Ahead of the trough a moist and unstable airmass is forecast across much of the Great Plains eastward into the Mississippi Valley. Scattered elevated strong thunderstorms will be possible early in the day from the northern Plains eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Southward into the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley, strong surface heating is forecast. Some models suggest MLCAPE could peak in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. In addition, a broad 40 to 50 knot low-level jet is forecast to strengthen late Sunday afternoon. This, combined with moderate to strong deep-layer shear over much of the moist sector will be favorable for severe storms potentially over a large area. A severe weather outbreak will be possible from the afternoon and evening into the early overnight period. The setup appears favorable for supercells with tornadoes, large to very large hail and wind damage.

On Monday, model forecasts eject a negatively-tilted upper-level trough into the central Plains. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be located from the southern and central Plains northeastward into the Upper Midwest. A mid-level jet is forecast to also eject northeastward across the central Plains as a broad low-level jet strengthens during the late afternoon. Thunderstorm development is expected along the western edge of the airmass near a dryline over west-central Kansas and southeast Nebraska. Thunderstorms that move into the strong low-level flow in the late afternoon and early evening will have potential to be supercells with large to very large hail, and tornadoes. Severe wind gusts will also be possible. A severe weather outbreak will be possible from Monday afternoon into evening and overnight period.

Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8

On Tuesday, mid-level southwesterly flow is forecast over the central U.S., with a cold front moving southeastward through the central Plains and Upper Midwest. Ahead of this front, surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to the lower 70s F are expected to contribute to moderate to strong instability. Thunderstorm development with a severe threat will be possible along and ahead of the front during the afternoon and evening from the northern part of the southern Plains northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley.

On Wednesday and Thursday, the cold front is forecast to move slowly southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon and evening. However, uncertainty concerning the exact location of the front is substantial at this extended range.

..Broyles.. 05/14/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, May 20

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140901 SPC AC 140901

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/SUN…D5/MON

### DISCUSSION

Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5

An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the Intermountain West on Sunday, as a subtle shortwave trough moves northeastward across the Great Plains. Ahead of the trough a moist and unstable airmass is forecast across much of the Great Plains eastward into the Mississippi Valley. Scattered elevated strong thunderstorms will be possible early in the day from the northern Plains eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Southward into the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley, strong surface heating is forecast. Some models suggest MLCAPE could peak in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. In addition, a broad 40 to 50 knot low-level jet is forecast to strengthen late Sunday afternoon. This, combined with moderate to strong deep-layer shear over much of the moist sector will be favorable for severe storms potentially over a large area. A severe weather outbreak will be possible from the afternoon and evening into the early overnight period. The setup appears favorable for supercells with tornadoes, large to very large hail and wind damage.

On Monday, model forecasts eject a negatively-tilted upper-level trough into the central Plains. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be located from the southern and central Plains northeastward into the Upper Midwest. A mid-level jet is forecast to also eject northeastward across the central Plains as a broad low-level jet strengthens during the late afternoon. Thunderstorm development is expected along the western edge of the airmass near a dryline over west-central Kansas and southeast Nebraska. Thunderstorms that move into the strong low-level flow in the late afternoon and early evening will have potential to be supercells with large to very large hail, and tornadoes. Severe wind gusts will also be possible. A severe weather outbreak will be possible from Monday afternoon into evening and overnight period.

Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8

On Tuesday, mid-level southwesterly flow is forecast over the central U.S., with a cold front moving southeastward through the central Plains and Upper Midwest. Ahead of this front, surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to the lower 70s F are expected to contribute to moderate to strong instability. Thunderstorm development with a severe threat will be possible along and ahead of the front during the afternoon and evening from the northern part of the southern Plains northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley.

On Wednesday and Thursday, the cold front is forecast to move slowly southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon and evening. However, uncertainty concerning the exact location of the front is substantial at this extended range.

..Broyles.. 05/14/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Thursday, May 21

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140901 SPC AC 140901

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/SUN…D5/MON

### DISCUSSION

Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5

An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the Intermountain West on Sunday, as a subtle shortwave trough moves northeastward across the Great Plains. Ahead of the trough a moist and unstable airmass is forecast across much of the Great Plains eastward into the Mississippi Valley. Scattered elevated strong thunderstorms will be possible early in the day from the northern Plains eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Southward into the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley, strong surface heating is forecast. Some models suggest MLCAPE could peak in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. In addition, a broad 40 to 50 knot low-level jet is forecast to strengthen late Sunday afternoon. This, combined with moderate to strong deep-layer shear over much of the moist sector will be favorable for severe storms potentially over a large area. A severe weather outbreak will be possible from the afternoon and evening into the early overnight period. The setup appears favorable for supercells with tornadoes, large to very large hail and wind damage.

On Monday, model forecasts eject a negatively-tilted upper-level trough into the central Plains. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be located from the southern and central Plains northeastward into the Upper Midwest. A mid-level jet is forecast to also eject northeastward across the central Plains as a broad low-level jet strengthens during the late afternoon. Thunderstorm development is expected along the western edge of the airmass near a dryline over west-central Kansas and southeast Nebraska. Thunderstorms that move into the strong low-level flow in the late afternoon and early evening will have potential to be supercells with large to very large hail, and tornadoes. Severe wind gusts will also be possible. A severe weather outbreak will be possible from Monday afternoon into evening and overnight period.

Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8

On Tuesday, mid-level southwesterly flow is forecast over the central U.S., with a cold front moving southeastward through the central Plains and Upper Midwest. Ahead of this front, surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to the lower 70s F are expected to contribute to moderate to strong instability. Thunderstorm development with a severe threat will be possible along and ahead of the front during the afternoon and evening from the northern part of the southern Plains northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley.

On Wednesday and Thursday, the cold front is forecast to move slowly southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon and evening. However, uncertainty concerning the exact location of the front is substantial at this extended range.

..Broyles.. 05/14/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Thursday, May 14

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Friday, May 15

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Saturday, May 16

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Sunday, May 17

ANY SEVERE: 30%

Monday, May 18

ANY SEVERE: 30%

Tuesday, May 19

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Wednesday, May 20

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Thursday, May 21

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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