Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, September 27
Outlook Summary
Organized severe storms are not expected tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 280046
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026
Valid 280100Z - 281200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Organized severe storms are not expected tonight.
Synopsis
Several different regimes of thunderstorms are ongoing this evening across the CONUS and others may develop overnight.
The first of these is across portions of Texas and far southern Oklahoma. Here, a moist airmass combined with strong diurnal heating and weak surface convergence have supported scattered strong-to-marginally severe thunderstorms. The strongest of these storms will continue to pose a gusty wind threat for another couple of hours before nocturnal cooling weakens low-level lapse rates and decreases the greater wind potential.
A second area is in and near western portions of Cherry County, Nebraska. Here, a couple of intense supercells have developed this afternoon, with MRMS MESH suggesting hail perhaps in excess of 3” in diameter at various times this afternoon. These nearly stationary storms will persist for another couple of hours before weakening with the loss of diurnal heating.
A third area is located across the central Rockies where large-scale ascent associated with a subtle short-wave trough embedded in the southwest mid-level flow has combined with modest instability. These thunderstorms should progress eastward during the evening hours. Additional thunderstorms are likely to form ahead of these across the northern Plains this evening and overnight as low-level warm-air advection strengthens.
Elsewhere, a couple of ongoing thunderstorms will persist for a few more hours across northern California and southern Oregon, and a couple of lightning strikes cannot be ruled out overnight across portions of southern and eastern New England as the intense, nearly stationary east coast cyclone begins to slowly move northward toward the southern New England coast.
..Marsh.. 09/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Monday, September 28
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorm probability remains low on Monday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 271728
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorm probability remains low on Monday.
Synopsis
The broad western trough will evolve into an upper low over the Lower Colorado Valley with a low-amplitude trough over the northern Rockies on Monday. Low-level moisture will be maintained into the northern Plains by persistent low-level southerly flow. A cold front will eventually move southeast through parts of the Dakotas by Tuesday morning.
Northwest South Dakota Vicinity
Precipitation associated with low-level jet warm advection will likely be ongoing in the morning. Ahead of a low-amplitude trough in the northern Rockies, a weak surface trough/broad cyclone is expected to develop near the Wyoming/South Dakota border and move east-northeast through the afternoon/early evening. Despite increasing mid/high-level clouds, some filtered surface heating/destabilization is possible. Some CAM guidance suggests a narrow zone in time and space for storm development is possible along the surface trough by late afternoon. While the environment could conditionally support a strong to marginally severe storm or two, development/coverage remains uncertain given the modest warming aloft that will occur during much of the period as well as weak low/mid-level forcing for ascent. It is more probable that convection develops along the advancing cold front well after 00Z as the low-level jet intensifies. By that time, the thermodynamic environment will be less favorable for severe storms.
..Wendt.. 09/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Tuesday, September 29
Outlook Summary
Severe potential appears low on Tuesday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 271928
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe potential appears low on Tuesday.
Synopsis
The primary upper-level features of interest will be the main low in the Southwest that will phase with the post-tropical remnants of Polo. Moisture advecting northward will interact with a weak surface boundary extending over much of the Plains. The upper low will eventually move into the southern High Plains during the evening/overnight period. Deep-layer flow, with a large southerly component, will intensify as this occurs. Scattered to numerous storms will develop within the Southwest and spread eastward into the southern High Plains. Cloud cover will generally be expansive ahead of the upper-level system, limiting afternoon heating. Storm coverage will be greatest during the evening and overnight. Wind fields would support some stronger gusts with convection despite limited destabilization. Coupled with poor mid-level lapse rates from the tropical airmass and largely meridional shear vector, overall potential for organized/severe activity appears low.
..Wendt.. 09/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Wednesday, September 30
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, October 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, October 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, October 3 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, October 4 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270914 SPC AC 270914
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0414 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6
During the mid-week, an upper-level low is forecast to move slowly eastward from the southern Rockies into the southern Plains. As the system approaches, low-level moisture will advect northward into the southern and central Plains. A pocket of moderate instability may develop over the southern High Plains by Wednesday afternoon. As surface heating is maximized Wednesday afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to form along and near the instability axis. A mid-level jet, associated with the approaching system, is forecast to move into the southern High Plains in the afternoon. This feature will increase deep-layer shear. The timing of the mid-level jet is still in question, but if the mid-level jet can move into the southern Plains soon enough, then a severe threat could develop. Under this scenario, isolated supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible.
From Thursday into Friday, the upper-level trough is forecast to remain over the southern High Plains. Ahead of the slow-moving system, a moist and somewhat unstable airmass is forecast to be in place both Thursday and Friday over parts of east-central Texas. On these two days, deep-layer shear may be strong enough for an isolated severe threat, mainly with storms that form near the instability axis.
Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8
Over the weekend, an upper-level trough is forecast to move across the central U.S. Ahead of the trough, a moist and somewhat unstable airmass is forecast to be in place over much of the Southeast, where scattered to numerous thunderstorms will be possible each day. Of the two days, the strongest instability is forecast to be on Sunday, when an isolated severe threat will be possible. Uncertainty regarding the spatial extent and magnitude is substantial at this range.
..Broyles.. 09/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, October 1
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, October 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, October 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, October 3 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, October 4 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270914 SPC AC 270914
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0414 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6
During the mid-week, an upper-level low is forecast to move slowly eastward from the southern Rockies into the southern Plains. As the system approaches, low-level moisture will advect northward into the southern and central Plains. A pocket of moderate instability may develop over the southern High Plains by Wednesday afternoon. As surface heating is maximized Wednesday afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to form along and near the instability axis. A mid-level jet, associated with the approaching system, is forecast to move into the southern High Plains in the afternoon. This feature will increase deep-layer shear. The timing of the mid-level jet is still in question, but if the mid-level jet can move into the southern Plains soon enough, then a severe threat could develop. Under this scenario, isolated supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible.
From Thursday into Friday, the upper-level trough is forecast to remain over the southern High Plains. Ahead of the slow-moving system, a moist and somewhat unstable airmass is forecast to be in place both Thursday and Friday over parts of east-central Texas. On these two days, deep-layer shear may be strong enough for an isolated severe threat, mainly with storms that form near the instability axis.
Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8
Over the weekend, an upper-level trough is forecast to move across the central U.S. Ahead of the trough, a moist and somewhat unstable airmass is forecast to be in place over much of the Southeast, where scattered to numerous thunderstorms will be possible each day. Of the two days, the strongest instability is forecast to be on Sunday, when an isolated severe threat will be possible. Uncertainty regarding the spatial extent and magnitude is substantial at this range.
..Broyles.. 09/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, October 2
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, October 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, October 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, October 3 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, October 4 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270914 SPC AC 270914
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0414 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6
During the mid-week, an upper-level low is forecast to move slowly eastward from the southern Rockies into the southern Plains. As the system approaches, low-level moisture will advect northward into the southern and central Plains. A pocket of moderate instability may develop over the southern High Plains by Wednesday afternoon. As surface heating is maximized Wednesday afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to form along and near the instability axis. A mid-level jet, associated with the approaching system, is forecast to move into the southern High Plains in the afternoon. This feature will increase deep-layer shear. The timing of the mid-level jet is still in question, but if the mid-level jet can move into the southern Plains soon enough, then a severe threat could develop. Under this scenario, isolated supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible.
From Thursday into Friday, the upper-level trough is forecast to remain over the southern High Plains. Ahead of the slow-moving system, a moist and somewhat unstable airmass is forecast to be in place both Thursday and Friday over parts of east-central Texas. On these two days, deep-layer shear may be strong enough for an isolated severe threat, mainly with storms that form near the instability axis.
Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8
Over the weekend, an upper-level trough is forecast to move across the central U.S. Ahead of the trough, a moist and somewhat unstable airmass is forecast to be in place over much of the Southeast, where scattered to numerous thunderstorms will be possible each day. Of the two days, the strongest instability is forecast to be on Sunday, when an isolated severe threat will be possible. Uncertainty regarding the spatial extent and magnitude is substantial at this range.
..Broyles.. 09/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, October 3
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, October 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, October 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, October 3 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, October 4 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270914 SPC AC 270914
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0414 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6
During the mid-week, an upper-level low is forecast to move slowly eastward from the southern Rockies into the southern Plains. As the system approaches, low-level moisture will advect northward into the southern and central Plains. A pocket of moderate instability may develop over the southern High Plains by Wednesday afternoon. As surface heating is maximized Wednesday afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to form along and near the instability axis. A mid-level jet, associated with the approaching system, is forecast to move into the southern High Plains in the afternoon. This feature will increase deep-layer shear. The timing of the mid-level jet is still in question, but if the mid-level jet can move into the southern Plains soon enough, then a severe threat could develop. Under this scenario, isolated supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible.
From Thursday into Friday, the upper-level trough is forecast to remain over the southern High Plains. Ahead of the slow-moving system, a moist and somewhat unstable airmass is forecast to be in place both Thursday and Friday over parts of east-central Texas. On these two days, deep-layer shear may be strong enough for an isolated severe threat, mainly with storms that form near the instability axis.
Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8
Over the weekend, an upper-level trough is forecast to move across the central U.S. Ahead of the trough, a moist and somewhat unstable airmass is forecast to be in place over much of the Southeast, where scattered to numerous thunderstorms will be possible each day. Of the two days, the strongest instability is forecast to be on Sunday, when an isolated severe threat will be possible. Uncertainty regarding the spatial extent and magnitude is substantial at this range.
..Broyles.. 09/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, October 4
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, October 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, October 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, October 3 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, October 4 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270914 SPC AC 270914
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0414 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6
During the mid-week, an upper-level low is forecast to move slowly eastward from the southern Rockies into the southern Plains. As the system approaches, low-level moisture will advect northward into the southern and central Plains. A pocket of moderate instability may develop over the southern High Plains by Wednesday afternoon. As surface heating is maximized Wednesday afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to form along and near the instability axis. A mid-level jet, associated with the approaching system, is forecast to move into the southern High Plains in the afternoon. This feature will increase deep-layer shear. The timing of the mid-level jet is still in question, but if the mid-level jet can move into the southern Plains soon enough, then a severe threat could develop. Under this scenario, isolated supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible.
From Thursday into Friday, the upper-level trough is forecast to remain over the southern High Plains. Ahead of the slow-moving system, a moist and somewhat unstable airmass is forecast to be in place both Thursday and Friday over parts of east-central Texas. On these two days, deep-layer shear may be strong enough for an isolated severe threat, mainly with storms that form near the instability axis.
Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8
Over the weekend, an upper-level trough is forecast to move across the central U.S. Ahead of the trough, a moist and somewhat unstable airmass is forecast to be in place over much of the Southeast, where scattered to numerous thunderstorms will be possible each day. Of the two days, the strongest instability is forecast to be on Sunday, when an isolated severe threat will be possible. Uncertainty regarding the spatial extent and magnitude is substantial at this range.
..Broyles.. 09/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, September 27
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Monday, September 28
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, September 29
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Wednesday, September 30
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, October 1
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, October 2
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, October 3
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, October 4
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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