Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, February 22
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 221950
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026
Valid 222000Z - 231200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.
Synopsis
No significant changes have been made to the ongoing forecast.
..Hart.. 02/22/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026/
Synopsis
Isolated thunderstorms are expected along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coast this afternoon and tonight as offshore bomb cyclogenesis occurs. Some of this lightning activity will occur with heavy snow.
Elsewhere, a few afternoon thunderstorms may accompany a cold front as it sags southward across the central FL peninsula. Also, isolated thunderstorms may move ashore over western WA beneath very cold temperatures aloft. In all of these places, weak instability will preclude the risk of severe thunderstorms.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Monday, February 23
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 221642
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.
Synopsis
A powerful cyclone initially offshore of the southern New England coast will move northeastward toward Nova Scotia on Monday. Any remaining lightning activity with this system is expected to be offshore by the start of the period. Otherwise, cool, dry, and stable conditions in the wake of a cold frontal passage should preclude thunderstorm development across the central/eastern CONUS.
Elsewhere, shallow convection may persist into Monday morning across parts of the Olympic Peninsula of WA, but lightning potential should generally diminish with time. A midlevel shortwave trough will move from the Canadian Prairies toward the northern High Plains during the afternoon into Monday night, along the periphery of an upper ridge. Negligible moisture/instability is expected to limit thunderstorm potential with this shortwave.
..Dean.. 02/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Tuesday, February 24
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorm potential appears low on Tuesday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 221842
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorm potential appears low on Tuesday.
Synopsis
A vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Tuesday. This system will be accompanied by a deepening surface low and trailing cold front. While this system may be accompanied by shallow/weak convection, very meager moisture/instability should limit thunderstorm potential.
Upstream, a mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move into parts of the Pacific Northwest, helping to dampen an upper ridge that will initially be in place over the region. Rain and gusty winds will accompany this system across coastal OR and northern CA, but thunderstorm potential appears low due to negligible instability.
..Dean.. 02/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Wednesday, February 25
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, February 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, February 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, February 27 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, February 28 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, March 1 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220958 SPC AC 220958
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
A sharp mid-level trough will move across the US early in the forecast period (Wednesday and Thursday – Days 4 and 5). This wave will induce surface cyclogenesis across the Central Plains on Wednesday, and this low will quickly move east across the Ohio Valley on Thursday. Southerly winds ahead of the low will draw Gulf moisture northward across much of the Southeast.
Showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will develop on Thursday along and head of an eastward advancing cold front to the south of the aforementioned surface low. Forecast soundings and low-level wind fields show strong low-level wind fields atop a cool, moist boundary layer. Despite little to any instability, strong convergence along the cold front may support a narrow band of forced ascent. Given the strength of the low-level wind fields, a few strong wind gusts may reach the surface across portions of the Tennessee Valley on Thursday afternoon/evening, even absent lightning. Confidence in the specifics of this evolution are too low to warrant severe probabilities, but will be monitored in subsequent forecasts.
This cyclone will push a front south toward the northern Gulf coast by Friday, where southward advancement will stall. This front should wash out/redevelop northward next weekend as southerly flow takes hold and begins to advect moisture northward.
..Marsh.. 02/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, February 26
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, February 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, February 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, February 27 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, February 28 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, March 1 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220958 SPC AC 220958
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
A sharp mid-level trough will move across the US early in the forecast period (Wednesday and Thursday – Days 4 and 5). This wave will induce surface cyclogenesis across the Central Plains on Wednesday, and this low will quickly move east across the Ohio Valley on Thursday. Southerly winds ahead of the low will draw Gulf moisture northward across much of the Southeast.
Showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will develop on Thursday along and head of an eastward advancing cold front to the south of the aforementioned surface low. Forecast soundings and low-level wind fields show strong low-level wind fields atop a cool, moist boundary layer. Despite little to any instability, strong convergence along the cold front may support a narrow band of forced ascent. Given the strength of the low-level wind fields, a few strong wind gusts may reach the surface across portions of the Tennessee Valley on Thursday afternoon/evening, even absent lightning. Confidence in the specifics of this evolution are too low to warrant severe probabilities, but will be monitored in subsequent forecasts.
This cyclone will push a front south toward the northern Gulf coast by Friday, where southward advancement will stall. This front should wash out/redevelop northward next weekend as southerly flow takes hold and begins to advect moisture northward.
..Marsh.. 02/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, February 27
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, February 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, February 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, February 27 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, February 28 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, March 1 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220958 SPC AC 220958
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
A sharp mid-level trough will move across the US early in the forecast period (Wednesday and Thursday – Days 4 and 5). This wave will induce surface cyclogenesis across the Central Plains on Wednesday, and this low will quickly move east across the Ohio Valley on Thursday. Southerly winds ahead of the low will draw Gulf moisture northward across much of the Southeast.
Showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will develop on Thursday along and head of an eastward advancing cold front to the south of the aforementioned surface low. Forecast soundings and low-level wind fields show strong low-level wind fields atop a cool, moist boundary layer. Despite little to any instability, strong convergence along the cold front may support a narrow band of forced ascent. Given the strength of the low-level wind fields, a few strong wind gusts may reach the surface across portions of the Tennessee Valley on Thursday afternoon/evening, even absent lightning. Confidence in the specifics of this evolution are too low to warrant severe probabilities, but will be monitored in subsequent forecasts.
This cyclone will push a front south toward the northern Gulf coast by Friday, where southward advancement will stall. This front should wash out/redevelop northward next weekend as southerly flow takes hold and begins to advect moisture northward.
..Marsh.. 02/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, February 28
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, February 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, February 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, February 27 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, February 28 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, March 1 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220958 SPC AC 220958
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
A sharp mid-level trough will move across the US early in the forecast period (Wednesday and Thursday – Days 4 and 5). This wave will induce surface cyclogenesis across the Central Plains on Wednesday, and this low will quickly move east across the Ohio Valley on Thursday. Southerly winds ahead of the low will draw Gulf moisture northward across much of the Southeast.
Showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will develop on Thursday along and head of an eastward advancing cold front to the south of the aforementioned surface low. Forecast soundings and low-level wind fields show strong low-level wind fields atop a cool, moist boundary layer. Despite little to any instability, strong convergence along the cold front may support a narrow band of forced ascent. Given the strength of the low-level wind fields, a few strong wind gusts may reach the surface across portions of the Tennessee Valley on Thursday afternoon/evening, even absent lightning. Confidence in the specifics of this evolution are too low to warrant severe probabilities, but will be monitored in subsequent forecasts.
This cyclone will push a front south toward the northern Gulf coast by Friday, where southward advancement will stall. This front should wash out/redevelop northward next weekend as southerly flow takes hold and begins to advect moisture northward.
..Marsh.. 02/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, March 1
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, February 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, February 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, February 27 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, February 28 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, March 1 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220958 SPC AC 220958
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
A sharp mid-level trough will move across the US early in the forecast period (Wednesday and Thursday – Days 4 and 5). This wave will induce surface cyclogenesis across the Central Plains on Wednesday, and this low will quickly move east across the Ohio Valley on Thursday. Southerly winds ahead of the low will draw Gulf moisture northward across much of the Southeast.
Showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will develop on Thursday along and head of an eastward advancing cold front to the south of the aforementioned surface low. Forecast soundings and low-level wind fields show strong low-level wind fields atop a cool, moist boundary layer. Despite little to any instability, strong convergence along the cold front may support a narrow band of forced ascent. Given the strength of the low-level wind fields, a few strong wind gusts may reach the surface across portions of the Tennessee Valley on Thursday afternoon/evening, even absent lightning. Confidence in the specifics of this evolution are too low to warrant severe probabilities, but will be monitored in subsequent forecasts.
This cyclone will push a front south toward the northern Gulf coast by Friday, where southward advancement will stall. This front should wash out/redevelop northward next weekend as southerly flow takes hold and begins to advect moisture northward.
..Marsh.. 02/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, February 22
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Monday, February 23
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, February 24
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Wednesday, February 25
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, February 26
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, February 27
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, February 28
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, March 1
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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