Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, October 14
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and some tornado threat are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the southern Plains. A marginal wind-damage risk is possible across parts of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 141951
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
Valid 142000Z - 151200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and some tornado threat are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the southern Plains. A marginal wind-damage risk is possible across parts of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic.
20z Update
Scattered storms, including a few supercells, have developed across parts of northwest Texas along an east-west oriented outflow boundary. These storms are expected to increase in coverage/intensity over the next few hours, spreading into the Slight Risk area of southwest Oklahoma. See MCD #2373 for additional details.
Additional storm development is now commencing farther south across West Texas, where clear skies have allowed several hours of destabilization to occur, yielding 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Effective shear of 40-45 kt will promote storm organization, with supercellular modes initially that should transition to linear modes with time. Damaging wind gusts are expected with this activity as it spreads northeast into northwest Texas and southwest/central Oklahoma through the overnight. Forecast soundings indicate potential for a few QLCS tornadoes if sufficient destabilization north of the aforementioned outflow boundary can occur and be maintained.
Elsewhere, a few damaging wind gusts remain possible with the ongoing convection moving across parts of northern Kentucky and southern Ohio. See MCD #2374 for additional details. Probabilities have been reduced in the wake of this activity.
..Karstens/Bentley.. 10/14/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026/
Southern Plains/Southern High Plains
Extensive showers and thunderstorms continue at midday across the majority of Oklahoma to the Ozarks, and on a more scattered basis across west/northwest Texas. This is within a very moist air mass (with prevalent 2+ inch Precipitable Water values except the High Plains) to the south of a synoptic front, with convective outflows continuing to effectively augment the front including recent/fresh outflows across southern Oklahoma/western north Texas.
An upper-level trough centered near the Four Corners areas will overspread the central Rockies, with height falls and strengthening winds aloft overspreading the central Plains and southern High Plains. This will probably aid in some air mass recovery and modification/northward flux of the outflow-related effective boundary, with prevalent insolation at midday across the Texas Low Rolling Plains and far southern Oklahoma to portions of central Arkansas (and points south).
Thunderstorm redevelopment/intensification is expected along the effective boundary, particularly across southwest Oklahoma and the Texas Low Rolling Plains and Texas South Plains. Moderately strong flow aloft (40-50 kt effective shear) will support some initial supercells capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Low-level winds will generally relax today, but should again strengthen toward/after sunset. Some tornado threat will exist, but upscale quasi-linear growth and bowing segments will likely be more prevalent this evening, with damaging gusts becoming the primary risk.
Ohio Valley and the Mid-Atlantic States
A semi-organized band of thunderstorms exists at midday near the Ohio River along the Indiana/Ohio border vicinity. Relatively cloud-free skies exist ahead of these storms through much of Kentucky/southern Ohio toward the Appalachians. Heating combined with boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s is expected to contribute to pockets of instability with MLCAPE approaching 1000-1250 J/kg by mid/late afternoon. As storms intensify regionally, steepening low-level lapse rates coupled with strengthening west-southwesterly winds with height (yielding up to 35-40 kt of deep-layer shear) appear supportive of isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts through early evening.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Thursday, October 15
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or two are possible over portions of the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys Thursday afternoon and evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 141726
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or two are possible over portions of the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys Thursday afternoon and evening.
Synopsis
An upper trough will dig south and east across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest on Thursday. As this occurs, a shortwave disturbance over the southern/central Plains will lift northeast, eventually overspreading the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys ahead of the developing larger-scale upper trough. A plume of moisture from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley and persistent warm advection will support areas of scattered showers and thunderstorms, with some severe thunderstorm potential developing across the Ohio Valley.
Mid-MS and OH Valleys
Height falls associated with the lead upper shortwave impulse will develop over south-central IL during the day and spread east/northeast into the evening. Ongoing showers and thunderstorms will reinforce an outflow/effective warm front from near the MS River eastward roughly near the I-70 corridor across IL/IN. This early day convection and associated cloud cover within a corridor of persistent low-level warm advection will impact warm sector destabilization, the degree to which remains uncertain. Nevertheless, a narrow plume of upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints will support a corridor of around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE, despite expected poor lapse rates. Modest vertically veering wind profiles in the low levels, combined with 40+ kt effective shear magnitudes will support transient supercells and bowing segments as additional convection develops toward late afternoon/early evening amid an increasing low-level jet and ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. Isolated strong to severe wind gusts will be possible with this activity, in addition to a tornado or two (mainly across south-central IL to central IN). Conditionally higher tornado probabilities may be possible in later outlooks depending mesoscale trends in the near-surface boundary layer influenced by early-day convection.
Instability will wane with eastward extent across OH during the nighttime hours and severe potential should gradually wane as storms shift east/northeast.
Southern Plains
Scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front from southwest TX toward southern OK. A moist and modestly unstable airmass will reside across the region, but vertical shear is expected to remain marginal (and flow below 700 mb generally weak). Boundary-parallel shear vectors also will support anafrontal/undercutting convective processes. Furthermore, midlevel lapse rates also will remain poor. A stronger storm producing gusty winds or small hail could occur, but overall severe potential is expected to remain limited.
..Leitman.. 10/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Friday, October 16
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe storms are possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic Friday afternoon and evening.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 141907
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe storms are possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic Friday afternoon and evening.
Mid-Atlantic
A strong upper trough over the Upper Great Lakes and Mid-MS Valley early Friday will shift east through the period, becoming oriented over the Lower Great Lakes to Southeast by Saturday morning. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow associated with this system will overspread much of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic as a surface cold front develops eastward. While a seasonally moist airmass will be in place ahead of the front, possibly early day showers, cloud cover, and poor lapse rates will limit destabilization. Where stronger heating can occur, a narrow corridor of 500-750 J/kg MLCAPE may develop (most likely across the Mid-Atlantic). Thunderstorm activity will increase ahead of the cold front by early afternoon and shift east through the evening. Strong deep-layer flow will promote some storm organization, but a more robust severe risk will be tempered by the marginal thermodynamic environment. Still, given the strengthen of deep-layer flow, isolated strong wind gusts are possible during the afternoon into early evening within the corridor of modest destabilization.
..Leitman.. 10/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Saturday, October 17
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 17 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, October 18 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, October 19 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, October 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, October 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140825 SPC AC 140825
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4 through 6/Saturday through Monday
An intense midlevel trough will move off the Atlantic Coast early on Day 4/Saturday in response to strong zonal flow developing along the U.S./Canadian border. Elsewhere, an upper low off the Baja Coast will weaken while accelerating through the Southwest into the Great Plains. In the low levels, a drier and more stable air mass is expected to limit severe weather potential through at least Monday.
### Days 7 and 8/Tuesday and Wednesday
There is good model agreement that a midlevel trough will move inland from the Pacific Coast. Meanwhile, an associated deepening of a lee surface trough is expected over the High Plains, which in turn will promote the poleward flux of an increasingly moist air mass from the Gulf into the Great Plains. An isolated severe weather threat could materialize by as early as Tuesday in the lower-Colorado Valley, where strengthening vertical shear and forcing for ascent overspread a marginally unstable environment. Uncertainty remains in how quickly the midlevel trough will move through the Interior West; however, it does appear that severe weather potential may increase over the central U.S. by Wednesday or Thursday of next week.
..Mead.. 10/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, October 18
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 17 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, October 18 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, October 19 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, October 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, October 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140825 SPC AC 140825
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4 through 6/Saturday through Monday
An intense midlevel trough will move off the Atlantic Coast early on Day 4/Saturday in response to strong zonal flow developing along the U.S./Canadian border. Elsewhere, an upper low off the Baja Coast will weaken while accelerating through the Southwest into the Great Plains. In the low levels, a drier and more stable air mass is expected to limit severe weather potential through at least Monday.
### Days 7 and 8/Tuesday and Wednesday
There is good model agreement that a midlevel trough will move inland from the Pacific Coast. Meanwhile, an associated deepening of a lee surface trough is expected over the High Plains, which in turn will promote the poleward flux of an increasingly moist air mass from the Gulf into the Great Plains. An isolated severe weather threat could materialize by as early as Tuesday in the lower-Colorado Valley, where strengthening vertical shear and forcing for ascent overspread a marginally unstable environment. Uncertainty remains in how quickly the midlevel trough will move through the Interior West; however, it does appear that severe weather potential may increase over the central U.S. by Wednesday or Thursday of next week.
..Mead.. 10/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, October 19
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 17 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, October 18 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, October 19 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, October 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, October 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140825 SPC AC 140825
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4 through 6/Saturday through Monday
An intense midlevel trough will move off the Atlantic Coast early on Day 4/Saturday in response to strong zonal flow developing along the U.S./Canadian border. Elsewhere, an upper low off the Baja Coast will weaken while accelerating through the Southwest into the Great Plains. In the low levels, a drier and more stable air mass is expected to limit severe weather potential through at least Monday.
### Days 7 and 8/Tuesday and Wednesday
There is good model agreement that a midlevel trough will move inland from the Pacific Coast. Meanwhile, an associated deepening of a lee surface trough is expected over the High Plains, which in turn will promote the poleward flux of an increasingly moist air mass from the Gulf into the Great Plains. An isolated severe weather threat could materialize by as early as Tuesday in the lower-Colorado Valley, where strengthening vertical shear and forcing for ascent overspread a marginally unstable environment. Uncertainty remains in how quickly the midlevel trough will move through the Interior West; however, it does appear that severe weather potential may increase over the central U.S. by Wednesday or Thursday of next week.
..Mead.. 10/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, October 20
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 17 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, October 18 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, October 19 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, October 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, October 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140825 SPC AC 140825
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4 through 6/Saturday through Monday
An intense midlevel trough will move off the Atlantic Coast early on Day 4/Saturday in response to strong zonal flow developing along the U.S./Canadian border. Elsewhere, an upper low off the Baja Coast will weaken while accelerating through the Southwest into the Great Plains. In the low levels, a drier and more stable air mass is expected to limit severe weather potential through at least Monday.
### Days 7 and 8/Tuesday and Wednesday
There is good model agreement that a midlevel trough will move inland from the Pacific Coast. Meanwhile, an associated deepening of a lee surface trough is expected over the High Plains, which in turn will promote the poleward flux of an increasingly moist air mass from the Gulf into the Great Plains. An isolated severe weather threat could materialize by as early as Tuesday in the lower-Colorado Valley, where strengthening vertical shear and forcing for ascent overspread a marginally unstable environment. Uncertainty remains in how quickly the midlevel trough will move through the Interior West; however, it does appear that severe weather potential may increase over the central U.S. by Wednesday or Thursday of next week.
..Mead.. 10/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, October 21
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 17 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, October 18 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, October 19 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, October 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, October 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140825 SPC AC 140825
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4 through 6/Saturday through Monday
An intense midlevel trough will move off the Atlantic Coast early on Day 4/Saturday in response to strong zonal flow developing along the U.S./Canadian border. Elsewhere, an upper low off the Baja Coast will weaken while accelerating through the Southwest into the Great Plains. In the low levels, a drier and more stable air mass is expected to limit severe weather potential through at least Monday.
### Days 7 and 8/Tuesday and Wednesday
There is good model agreement that a midlevel trough will move inland from the Pacific Coast. Meanwhile, an associated deepening of a lee surface trough is expected over the High Plains, which in turn will promote the poleward flux of an increasingly moist air mass from the Gulf into the Great Plains. An isolated severe weather threat could materialize by as early as Tuesday in the lower-Colorado Valley, where strengthening vertical shear and forcing for ascent overspread a marginally unstable environment. Uncertainty remains in how quickly the midlevel trough will move through the Interior West; however, it does appear that severe weather potential may increase over the central U.S. by Wednesday or Thursday of next week.
..Mead.. 10/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, October 14
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Thursday, October 15
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Friday, October 16
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Saturday, October 17
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, October 18
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, October 19
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, October 20
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, October 21
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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