Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, December 3
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms will be possible this evening into tonight across the western Gulf Coast states. Severe storms are not expected.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 031256
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 AM CST Wed Dec 03 2025
Valid 031300Z - 041200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms will be possible this evening into tonight across the western Gulf Coast states. Severe storms are not expected.
East/Southeast TX into Central/Southern LA
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a well-defined southern-stream shortwave trough progressing southeastward along the southern CA/NV border vicinity. This shortwave is forecast to continue southeastward through the Lower CO River Valley region before then pivoting more eastward across the Southwest. An extended fetch of mid-level southwesterly flow preceding this wave is expected to strengthen as it moves across the Southwest. At the same time, southerly low-level flow across the western Gulf will strengthen, with an attendant increase in warm-air advection from the western Gulf across the TX Coast into LA. This warm-air advection will help support modest buoyancy atop a shallow stable layer, promoting elevated thunderstorms from east/southeast TX into central and southern LA.
Thunderstorm coverage is forecast to quickly increase in the 03Z to 04Z time frame across southeast TX before spreading eastward and northeastward throughout the remainder of the period. Moderate to strong southwesterly mid-level flow will extend across this entire region, supporting strong deep-layer shear. This strong shear could support some occasionally stronger/more organized updrafts capable of small hail. Even so, weak buoyancy should limit updraft strength and duration, keeping any hail threat minimal. Mid 60s dewpoints may advect onto the immediate middle and upper TX coast as a weak surface low moves northeastward through the region. However, even with these higher dewpoints, surface-based convective inhibition will likely prevail given deep warm layer anticipated. This should keep the tornado potential very low, despite substantial low-level storm-relative helicity.
..Mosier/Jewell.. 12/03/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Thursday, December 4
Outlook Summary
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible tomorrow (Thursday) across coastal portions of the western and central Gulf Coast vicinity. Severe potential appears very low at this time.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 030649
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CST Wed Dec 03 2025
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible tomorrow (Thursday) across coastal portions of the western and central Gulf Coast vicinity. Severe potential appears very low at this time.
Synopsis
A broad mid-level trough will gradually progress across the central and eastern CONUS tomorrow (Thursday), encouraging surface high pressure and static stability to overspread most of the CONUS, limiting thunderstorm development. However, weak surface low development should take place along the TX coastline during the day, with the low translating eastward along the Gulf Coast into early Friday morning. Warm-air advection ahead and to the north of the low will encourage at least weak, elevated buoyancy to spread inland, where isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible. Current guidance suggests that the surface warm front should remain just offshore, along with surface-based instability. As such, the severe threat appears too low to warrant probabilities this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 12/03/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Friday, December 5
Outlook Summary
A few thunderstorms may occur along the Gulf Coast to the Florida Peninsula on Friday. The risk for severe storms currently appears very low.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 030746
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Wed Dec 03 2025
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
A few thunderstorms may occur along the Gulf Coast to the Florida Peninsula on Friday. The risk for severe storms currently appears very low.
Synopsis
Mid-level troughing will persist across the central and eastern CONUS, resulting in surface high pressure overspreading much of the eastern U.S. as a surface low develops over the northern High Plains on Friday. Relatively cold and/or dry, statically stable air will be present over most portions of the CONUS, which will limit thunderstorm potential. A surface low along the eastern Gulf coast will traverse the northern FL peninsula during the day. Low-level moisture advection is anticipated ahead of the surface low along the Gulf Coast, where primarily elevated buoyancy (e.g. a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE) will support a few thunderstorms through the period. Given the meager and primarily elevated nature of the buoyancy, the chances for severe storms appears too low for the introduction of severe probabilities at this time.
..Squitieri.. 12/03/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Saturday, December 6
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, December 6 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, December 7 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, December 8 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, December 9 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, December 10 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030805 SPC AC 030805
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CST Wed Dec 03 2025
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
Multiple mid-level troughs will traverse the CONUS while translating within a broader west-northwest to east-southeasterly upper level flow regime through the Days 4-8 period. Periodic bouts of surface high pressure will reinforce a statically stable, cool and dry airmass across most of the CONUS, limiting thunderstorm development. One exception will be with the Gulf Coast states early next week, when a surface low preceding one of the embedded mid-level troughs will encourage onshore flow from the Gulf. Should this occur, enough buoyancy will be in place (along with deep-layer ascent) to support thunderstorms. However, buoyancy may be too weak to support a severe threat.
..Squitieri.. 12/03/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, December 7
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, December 6 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, December 7 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, December 8 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, December 9 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, December 10 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030805 SPC AC 030805
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CST Wed Dec 03 2025
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
Multiple mid-level troughs will traverse the CONUS while translating within a broader west-northwest to east-southeasterly upper level flow regime through the Days 4-8 period. Periodic bouts of surface high pressure will reinforce a statically stable, cool and dry airmass across most of the CONUS, limiting thunderstorm development. One exception will be with the Gulf Coast states early next week, when a surface low preceding one of the embedded mid-level troughs will encourage onshore flow from the Gulf. Should this occur, enough buoyancy will be in place (along with deep-layer ascent) to support thunderstorms. However, buoyancy may be too weak to support a severe threat.
..Squitieri.. 12/03/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, December 8
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, December 6 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, December 7 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, December 8 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, December 9 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, December 10 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030805 SPC AC 030805
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CST Wed Dec 03 2025
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
Multiple mid-level troughs will traverse the CONUS while translating within a broader west-northwest to east-southeasterly upper level flow regime through the Days 4-8 period. Periodic bouts of surface high pressure will reinforce a statically stable, cool and dry airmass across most of the CONUS, limiting thunderstorm development. One exception will be with the Gulf Coast states early next week, when a surface low preceding one of the embedded mid-level troughs will encourage onshore flow from the Gulf. Should this occur, enough buoyancy will be in place (along with deep-layer ascent) to support thunderstorms. However, buoyancy may be too weak to support a severe threat.
..Squitieri.. 12/03/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, December 9
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, December 6 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, December 7 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, December 8 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, December 9 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, December 10 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030805 SPC AC 030805
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CST Wed Dec 03 2025
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
Multiple mid-level troughs will traverse the CONUS while translating within a broader west-northwest to east-southeasterly upper level flow regime through the Days 4-8 period. Periodic bouts of surface high pressure will reinforce a statically stable, cool and dry airmass across most of the CONUS, limiting thunderstorm development. One exception will be with the Gulf Coast states early next week, when a surface low preceding one of the embedded mid-level troughs will encourage onshore flow from the Gulf. Should this occur, enough buoyancy will be in place (along with deep-layer ascent) to support thunderstorms. However, buoyancy may be too weak to support a severe threat.
..Squitieri.. 12/03/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, December 10
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, December 6 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, December 7 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, December 8 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, December 9 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, December 10 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030805 SPC AC 030805
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CST Wed Dec 03 2025
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
Multiple mid-level troughs will traverse the CONUS while translating within a broader west-northwest to east-southeasterly upper level flow regime through the Days 4-8 period. Periodic bouts of surface high pressure will reinforce a statically stable, cool and dry airmass across most of the CONUS, limiting thunderstorm development. One exception will be with the Gulf Coast states early next week, when a surface low preceding one of the embedded mid-level troughs will encourage onshore flow from the Gulf. Should this occur, enough buoyancy will be in place (along with deep-layer ascent) to support thunderstorms. However, buoyancy may be too weak to support a severe threat.
..Squitieri.. 12/03/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, December 3
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Thursday, December 4
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Friday, December 5
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Saturday, December 6
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, December 7
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, December 8
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, December 9
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, December 10
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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