Severe Weather Outlook
Hayley here - Do you want to see severe weather in your calendar?
* it's like an add-on for your digital calendar NOT a paper calendar
National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, September 18
Outlook Summary
An isolated severe risk is forecast later today into the evening for the Carolinas into northern Georgia, northern Iowa, parts of the central High Plains, and parts of the Intermountain West.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 181629
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026
Valid 181630Z - 191200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT INTO NORTHERN GEORGIA…NORTHERN IOWA…PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS…AND PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
### SUMMARY
An isolated severe risk is forecast later today into the evening for the Carolinas into northern Georgia, northern Iowa, parts of the central High Plains, and parts of the Intermountain West.
Carolina Piedmont into Northern Georgia
Recent surface analysis places a wavy stationary front from southern IL through southern IN and southern OH into southwest PA. Decaying showers and thunderstorms currently precede this boundary from southern IL into northern KY. This boundary is forecast to shift southward today in response to a modest surge of cooler air in the wake of a shortwave trough moving through southern Quebec and the Canadian Maritimes. This front will be relatively weak, but thunderstorm development is still anticipated this afternoon as the front interacts with the warm, moist, and diurnally destabilized airmass across the Carolina Piedmont and northern GA. Vertical shear will be weak and a largely outflow-dominant storm mode is expected. Even so, the strong buoyancy and ample moisture (i.e. PW values over 2 inches) will support the potential for occasionally strong downbursts.
Central High Plains
Water-vapor imagery continues to show a convectively enhanced vorticity maximum moving north-northeast from north-central NM into southern CO. This vorticity max is forecast to continue northeastward along the periphery of the upper ridging centered over east TX, contributing to thunderstorm development from eastern WY through eastern CO this afternoon/evening. Much of this activity will occur in regions of cooler surface temperatures and/or more limited low-level moisture. However, surface-based buoyancy could exists in the CO/NE/KS border intersection vicinity, where a combination of strong heating, and lingering post-frontal low-level moisture will exist. Potential exists for initially isolated to widely scattered storms to grow upscale into a small, eastward-moving cluster this evening. Isolated severe gusts may accompany the stronger outflow surges with this activity.
Intermountain West
Continued thunderstorm development is anticipated across the region today, with overall coverage and intensity increasing as a shortwave trough continues to move eastward into southern ID and northern UT. Some moderate, filtered daytime heating is possible, but the overall region is expected to remain relatively cool (i.e. high temperatures ranging from the upper 60s across southern ID to the low to mid 70s across northern UT). Even so, cold temperatures aloft will support enough buoyancy, which will combine with strong deep-layer vertical shear to support occasionally strong/organized updrafts. Strong to severe gusts will be possible with any stronger, more persistent storms. Some instances of small hail are possible as well.
Northern Iowa into Far Southern MN
Elevated thunderstorm development is still anticipated tonight, supported by warm-air advection associated with a moderate low-level jet that extends through the region. Highest storm coverage will likely be displaced north and east of the strongest buoyancy. Even so, a few of the southernmost storms could occur where moderate vertical shear and buoyancy are in place, supporting the potential for an isolated supercell or two. Primary risk with any stronger storms is hail, but a strong gust or two is possible if any more linear structures develop.
..Mosier/Chalmers.. 09/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Saturday, September 19
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe wind and hail producing storms are likely across portions of the central Plains, with more isolated severe storms possible across the central High Plains, central Rockies, and the Midwest to Southeast states tomorrow.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 181726
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO EASTERN KANSAS
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe wind and hail producing storms are likely across portions of the central Plains, with more isolated severe storms possible across the central High Plains, central Rockies, and the Midwest to Southeast states tomorrow.
Central Plains to the OH Valley
North of a weakening midlevel high over the south central CONUS, a belt of midlevel westerlies will be maintained from a shortwave trough crossing ID/UT/WY/CO eastward to the central Plains and OH Valley. In associated with an embedded speed max, a weak surface wave will develop eastward along a baroclinic zone from IA/IL to northern OH by the end of the period. The trailing cold front will move slowly southeastward across the central Plains. This front will focus thunderstorm development Saturday afternoon/evening from the eastern TX Panhandle across northwest OK into eastern KS. Strong surface heating along and south of the front will drive inverted-V profiles and moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg), which combined with ~30 kt midlevel flow will favor multicell clusters with hybrid microbursts and occasional severe outflow gusts. Isolated large hail will also be possible with any more organized storms moving along the front in a narrow zone of somewhat enhanced vertical shear.
Farther east into the Midwest/OH Valley, the amplitude of the surface wave and any associated low-level mass response will depend on the degree of prior convective enhancement/MCV development. Confidence is low in diurnal storm clusters evolving from morning convection, though such a scenario could warrant higher wind probabilities in later updates if a storm corridor can be identified with more confidence. Forecast confidence is low so will maintain low severe probabilities to reflect the potential for isolated wind damage with embedded storm clusters across the OH Valley. The southern extent of the MRGL area (into AL) reflects the potential for diurnal convection with isolated downbursts.
Eastern CO/WY
A weak low-level upslope flow regime and the approach of a midlevel trough from the west will foster scattered thunderstorm development Saturday afternoon near and immediately east of the higher terrain from CO into WY. Buoyancy and deep-layer vertical shear will be sufficient for organized clusters and possibly a couple of supercells with an attendant threat for isolated large hail and strong-severe outflow gusts. Convection will likely persist into Saturday night while spreading toward western KS, though storms will likely become slightly elevated and weaken with time.
..Thompson.. 09/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Sunday, September 20
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe thunderstorms, accompanied by mainly a wind and hail threat, are possible across portions of the central High Plains, the southern Plains, and the Midwest to Ohio Valley on Sunday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 180706
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS…SOUTHERN PLAINS…AND MIDWEST TO THE OHIO VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe thunderstorms, accompanied by mainly a wind and hail threat, are possible across portions of the central High Plains, the southern Plains, and the Midwest to Ohio Valley on Sunday.
Synopsis
A relatively zonal upper-air pattern will become established across the CONUS on Sunday, with a mid-level low-amplitude shortwave trough expected to eject into the central Plains while a more amplified upper trough impinges on the California Coastline. As the Plains low-amplitude upper trough progresses eastward, a surface cold front will continue to sag southward across the southern Plains to the TN Valley region. Thunderstorms should develop along or ahead of the cold front. Relatively rich low-level moisture preceding the front, along with modestly cooler temperatures aloft, may yield enough buoyancy to support an isolated severe threat, mainly across the southern Plains and the Midwest to OH Valley.
Southern Plains
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm initiation should take place ahead of the surface cold front by afternoon peak heating, especially over northern to central OK. Here, surface temperatures climbing through the 80s F, amid upper 60s F dewpoints, will support 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Up to 40 kts of effective bulk shear, amid 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates, may encourage multicellular organization, accompanied by mainly a severe wind/hail threat. Given modest forcing for ascent, storm coverage is uncertain, so the severe threat is currently anticipated to remain isolated.
Central High Plains
Upslope flow along the central High Plains will encourage enough orographic lift for the development of a few thunderstorms by late Sunday afternoon or evening. 7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates and elongated, straight hodographs with 50 kts of effective bulk shear will favor stronger updrafts to organize into supercells. Severe hail and wind will be the main threats.
Midwest to OH Valley
Surface dewpoints over 70 F will precede the cold front over the Midwest to OH Valley corridor as it progresses southward. Both pre-frontal and ana-frontal storm development is possible Sunday afternoon. Over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE will exist ahead of the front, though vertical wind shear should be modest (i.e. 25-35 kts of effective bulk shear). A mix of multicells, short line segments, and perhaps a supercell are likely. However, the severe threat is currently anticipated to be relatively isolated in nature, with mainly a few instances of severe wind or hail likely.
..Squitieri.. 09/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Monday, September 21
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, September 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, September 22 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, September 23 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, September 24 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, September 25 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180820 SPC AC 180820
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
Initially zonal mid-level flow, with embedded low-amplitude impulses traversing the central CONUS early next week, will give way to gradual amplification of an upper ridge over the central U.S. The best chance for any severe thunderstorms will be on Day 4/Monday across the TN Valley, where a surface cold front, preceded by rich low-level moisture, will be slow to clear the region. Thereafter, drier low-level conditions will prevail across much of the central and eastern CONUS, with surface high pressure poised to settle over much of the U.S. between the MS River and the Appalachians, limiting the severe threat.
..Squitieri.. 09/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, September 22
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, September 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, September 22 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, September 23 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, September 24 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, September 25 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180820 SPC AC 180820
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
Initially zonal mid-level flow, with embedded low-amplitude impulses traversing the central CONUS early next week, will give way to gradual amplification of an upper ridge over the central U.S. The best chance for any severe thunderstorms will be on Day 4/Monday across the TN Valley, where a surface cold front, preceded by rich low-level moisture, will be slow to clear the region. Thereafter, drier low-level conditions will prevail across much of the central and eastern CONUS, with surface high pressure poised to settle over much of the U.S. between the MS River and the Appalachians, limiting the severe threat.
..Squitieri.. 09/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, September 23
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, September 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, September 22 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, September 23 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, September 24 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, September 25 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180820 SPC AC 180820
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
Initially zonal mid-level flow, with embedded low-amplitude impulses traversing the central CONUS early next week, will give way to gradual amplification of an upper ridge over the central U.S. The best chance for any severe thunderstorms will be on Day 4/Monday across the TN Valley, where a surface cold front, preceded by rich low-level moisture, will be slow to clear the region. Thereafter, drier low-level conditions will prevail across much of the central and eastern CONUS, with surface high pressure poised to settle over much of the U.S. between the MS River and the Appalachians, limiting the severe threat.
..Squitieri.. 09/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, September 24
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, September 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, September 22 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, September 23 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, September 24 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, September 25 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180820 SPC AC 180820
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
Initially zonal mid-level flow, with embedded low-amplitude impulses traversing the central CONUS early next week, will give way to gradual amplification of an upper ridge over the central U.S. The best chance for any severe thunderstorms will be on Day 4/Monday across the TN Valley, where a surface cold front, preceded by rich low-level moisture, will be slow to clear the region. Thereafter, drier low-level conditions will prevail across much of the central and eastern CONUS, with surface high pressure poised to settle over much of the U.S. between the MS River and the Appalachians, limiting the severe threat.
..Squitieri.. 09/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, September 25
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, September 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, September 22 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, September 23 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, September 24 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, September 25 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180820 SPC AC 180820
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
Initially zonal mid-level flow, with embedded low-amplitude impulses traversing the central CONUS early next week, will give way to gradual amplification of an upper ridge over the central U.S. The best chance for any severe thunderstorms will be on Day 4/Monday across the TN Valley, where a surface cold front, preceded by rich low-level moisture, will be slow to clear the region. Thereafter, drier low-level conditions will prevail across much of the central and eastern CONUS, with surface high pressure poised to settle over much of the U.S. between the MS River and the Appalachians, limiting the severe threat.
..Squitieri.. 09/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, September 18
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Saturday, September 19
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Sunday, September 20
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Monday, September 21
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, September 22
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, September 23
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, September 24
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, September 25
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Your Severe Outlook
Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.
Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.
Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.
About Severe Weather Outlook . com
SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.
- tornado hq - live severe weather warnings
- cyclocane - hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones
- tornado solitaire - play cards while you monitor the US severe weather threat
- tertremo - live view of earthquakes around the world
- earthquake solitaire - get live earthquake updates as you play your favorite card game