Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, June 18
Outlook Summary
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible from Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic, with primarily damaging wind gusts or marginal hail. Scattered severe storms are possible from upstate New York into New England, with damaging gusts or even a tornado. A few tornadoes may occur over parts of the Gulf Coast states, and scattered storms may produce gusty winds or marginal hail from Oklahoma into northwest Texas.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 180549
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM KENTUCKY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC…OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST…AND ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible from Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic, with primarily damaging wind gusts or marginal hail. Scattered severe storms are possible from upstate New York into New England, with damaging gusts or even a tornado. A few tornadoes may occur over parts of the Gulf Coast states, and scattered storms may produce gusty winds or marginal hail from Oklahoma into northwest Texas.
From KY into the Mid Atlantic
Moderate mid to high level westerlies will exist from the OH Valley to Mid Atlantic, south of the primary wave over the Northeast. This region will be south of the midlevel drying, with ample low-level moisture remaining in place ahead of the slower moving portion of the front. Scattered storms may be ongoing early in the day from KY into WV, with perhaps wind or even tornado potential as SRH will be high at that time. As heating occurs during the day, boundary layer mixing as well as veering and weakening winds at 850 mb may reduce tornado risk. However, ample deep-layer shear and nearly unidirectional wind profiles will favor both cells and fast-moving clusters of storms producing damaging gusts and locally severe hail throughout the day.
Northeast
Within a broader area of cyclonic flow aloft, a leading shortwave trough will move from the Lower Great Lakes into the Northeast, with a 90 kt midlevel speed max and cooling aloft moving across NY and parts of New England during the day. Low pressure will develop into southern Quebec, with a cold front extending southward into the region.
Surface heating and gusty south winds will bring 60s F dewpoints into the area with up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE expected. Relatively warm profiles will develop near 300 mb, somewhat limiting storm depth. However, ample midlevel cooling will still support sufficient destabilization. Strong deep-layer shear and backed surface winds ahead of the cold front will favor low-topped supercells. Cells should develop over northern NY by 18Z, and will move quickly east, producing marginal hail and sporadic damaging gusts initially. The low EL height may mitigate hail production somewhat. By late afternoon, a tornado or two will be possible as storms encounter a stronger SRH environment farther east.
Parts of MS/AL/GA/FL
Wind fields associated with the remnants of Arthur will increase from LA into GA today, as a weak surface low and midlevel wave move across MS/AL/GA. This system will provide a focus for storms which will spread northeast out of LA/MS into AL, the FL Panhandle, and eventually into GA. Although temperatures aloft are warm, areas of strong low-level shear and mid 70s F dewpoints will support organized bands of storms, some with embedded stronger cells. Transient supercells will be possible with localized tornado risk. Storms are likely to be ongoing over southeast LA and southern MS at the start of the period, and these will develop northeastward throughout the day.
OK into northwest TX
An east-west oriented cold front will move southward across the TX Panhandle, Oklahoma and northwest today, pushing well south of the stronger westerlies aloft over the central Plains. The air mass ahead of the front will feature 70s F dewpoints, while daytime heating brings MUCAPE values into the 3000-4000 J/kg range. South of this cold front, low pressure is forecast to develop over western TX where the strongest heating will occur.
Isolated morning thunderstorms may be present from the KS/OK border area eastward toward the Ozarks, and marginal hail cannot be ruled out due to substantial elevated CAPE. Any storms that form near the boundary as it moves south during the day may produce locally strong gusts. The greatest risk of locally severe gusts or marginal hail appears to be across southwest OK into northwest TX, where the front will be more favorably timed with peak heating. Shear will be weak, but extensive outflow is possible.
..Jewell/Weinman.. 06/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Friday, June 19
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong storms may produce gusty winds and hail across the Upper Midwest. Additional strong thunderstorms may produce damaging wind gusts from north Texas/southern Oklahoma through portions of the Gulf Coast states and into the coastal Carolinas.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 180524
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST…AND FROM NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong storms may produce gusty winds and hail across the Upper Midwest. Additional strong thunderstorms may produce damaging wind gusts from north Texas/southern Oklahoma through portions of the Gulf Coast states and into the coastal Carolinas.
Minnesota/Wisconsin
An upper shortwave trough will migrate across the Upper Midwest on Friday. This will bring a belt of enhanced northwesterly flow aloft across the region. In the wake of a prior frontal passage, boundary-layer moisture will be very modest (generally 50s F dewpoints), but cool temperatures aloft and midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km will support weak destabilization (around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE). Forecast soundings show vertically veering wind profiles and elongated/straight hodographs with around 35-40 kt effective shear magnitudes. Isolated higher-based supercells will be possible. Steepened low-level lapse rates and the relatively dry boundary-layer will support isolated strong gusts. Isolated marginally severe hail also will be possible.
ArkLaTex vicinity through the Gulf Coast states
Most forecast guidance depicts an ongoing MCS across North Texas or far southern OK at Friday morning. Strong gusts will be possible with this system through the morning given modestly enhanced mid/upper flow and a corridor of strong instability across the ArkLaTex vicinity. This MCS and/or remnant MCV may continue east/southeast across east TX or toward the lower MS Valley through the day, tracking along a southward-sagging surface boundary.
Further east across the Gulf Coast vicinity, a very moist airmass will be in place, with PW values near 2 inches common. This will aid in moderate destabilization ahead of a west to east oriented surface boundary. Vertical shear will be weak, but water laden downdrafts could support isolated microbursts. It is unclear if convection will be able to organize along the surface boundary into a forward propagating cluster, but if this occurs, damaging wind potential would increase.
Coastal Carolinas
A mid/upper shortwave trough will move across the area through afternoon. Some guidance depicts a small MCS or cluster associated with a strong low-level jet during the morning. As this feature spreads northeast along the coast through afternoon, strong gusts will be possible.
Florida
A seasonally moist and unstable airmass will reside across north/central FL on Friday. Parts of the state will be on the southern fringes of stronger mid-level flow associated with the upper shortwave trough moving across the Carolinas. Some forecast soundings show 20-30 kt midlevel low, and this may be sufficient for transient organized cells along parts of the east coast. Additional storms will be possible across the Panhandle and northern FL as convection develops southward across the area ahead of a southward-sagging surface boundary. Ample moisture/high PW values and moderate instability will support occasional strong gusts with the strongest storms.
..Leitman.. 06/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Saturday, June 20
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central Plains vicinity from Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 180619
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central Plains vicinity from Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening.
Central Plains
An upper ridge will initially be centered over the High Plains on Saturday. An upper shortwave trough over the eastern Great Basin will develop eastward, emerging over the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains by 00z, and breaking down upper ridging. As this occurs, mid/upper level flow will increase and a lee low will deepen in the vicinity of eastern CO. A surface trough/dryline will extend southward near the CO/KS border and along the NM/TX border. Increasing south/southeasterly low-level flow will transport rich boundary layer moisture (mid/upper 60s F dewpoints) northward across KS, with low to mid 60s F dewpoints possible across much of NE. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop the moistening boundary layer will result in a moderate destabilization (MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/kg) across the central High Plains and portions of central/eastern NE/KS.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within upslope flow along the surface trough from far southeast WY into eastern CO. As storms develop east/southeast with time, an increasing southerly low-level jet may foster upscale development into one or more bowing segments. Overall, supercell wind profiles suggest large hail and perhaps tornadoes will be possible. If storms grow upscale, damaging wind potential will increase during the evening.
..Leitman.. 06/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Sunday, June 21
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, June 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, June 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, June 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, June 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, June 25 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180703 SPC AC 180703
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Sunday - Mid-MS Valley vicinity
A weak mid/upper shortwave trough over the Mid-MO Valley Sunday morning across the Mid-MS and lower OH Valley regions through the period. A surface low over the central Plains will spread east in tandem with the upper system, though the latitude at which this occurs is uncertain. Furthermore, an ongoing MCS could be located somewhere across eastern NE/KS and the adjacent MO Valley Sunday morning. How this convection evolves through the day is also uncertain. Nevertheless, rich boundary layer moisture will be in place across the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley, with moderate to strong destabilization likely to the south of a surface boundary oriented northwest to southeast across portions of the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys. Some where risk appears likely, either from reinvigorated morning convection, or from new storm development along outflow. Given uncertainty into placement of key features, will hold off on introducing 15 percent probabilities at this time, but areas will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks.
Days 5-8/Monday-Thursday - Plains to the Midwest and Southeast
Modest west to northwesterly flow aloft will persist east of the Rockies through much of the forecast period. Organized severe potential is uncertain due to a lack of notable large scale forcing. While some severe risk is likely each day, this risk will be driven by mesoscale processes and convective evolution each day. Overall predictability is low through most of next week.
..Leitman.. 06/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, June 22
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, June 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, June 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, June 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, June 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, June 25 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180703 SPC AC 180703
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Sunday - Mid-MS Valley vicinity
A weak mid/upper shortwave trough over the Mid-MO Valley Sunday morning across the Mid-MS and lower OH Valley regions through the period. A surface low over the central Plains will spread east in tandem with the upper system, though the latitude at which this occurs is uncertain. Furthermore, an ongoing MCS could be located somewhere across eastern NE/KS and the adjacent MO Valley Sunday morning. How this convection evolves through the day is also uncertain. Nevertheless, rich boundary layer moisture will be in place across the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley, with moderate to strong destabilization likely to the south of a surface boundary oriented northwest to southeast across portions of the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys. Some where risk appears likely, either from reinvigorated morning convection, or from new storm development along outflow. Given uncertainty into placement of key features, will hold off on introducing 15 percent probabilities at this time, but areas will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks.
Days 5-8/Monday-Thursday - Plains to the Midwest and Southeast
Modest west to northwesterly flow aloft will persist east of the Rockies through much of the forecast period. Organized severe potential is uncertain due to a lack of notable large scale forcing. While some severe risk is likely each day, this risk will be driven by mesoscale processes and convective evolution each day. Overall predictability is low through most of next week.
..Leitman.. 06/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, June 23
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, June 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, June 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, June 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, June 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, June 25 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180703 SPC AC 180703
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Sunday - Mid-MS Valley vicinity
A weak mid/upper shortwave trough over the Mid-MO Valley Sunday morning across the Mid-MS and lower OH Valley regions through the period. A surface low over the central Plains will spread east in tandem with the upper system, though the latitude at which this occurs is uncertain. Furthermore, an ongoing MCS could be located somewhere across eastern NE/KS and the adjacent MO Valley Sunday morning. How this convection evolves through the day is also uncertain. Nevertheless, rich boundary layer moisture will be in place across the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley, with moderate to strong destabilization likely to the south of a surface boundary oriented northwest to southeast across portions of the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys. Some where risk appears likely, either from reinvigorated morning convection, or from new storm development along outflow. Given uncertainty into placement of key features, will hold off on introducing 15 percent probabilities at this time, but areas will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks.
Days 5-8/Monday-Thursday - Plains to the Midwest and Southeast
Modest west to northwesterly flow aloft will persist east of the Rockies through much of the forecast period. Organized severe potential is uncertain due to a lack of notable large scale forcing. While some severe risk is likely each day, this risk will be driven by mesoscale processes and convective evolution each day. Overall predictability is low through most of next week.
..Leitman.. 06/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, June 24
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, June 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, June 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, June 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, June 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, June 25 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180703 SPC AC 180703
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Sunday - Mid-MS Valley vicinity
A weak mid/upper shortwave trough over the Mid-MO Valley Sunday morning across the Mid-MS and lower OH Valley regions through the period. A surface low over the central Plains will spread east in tandem with the upper system, though the latitude at which this occurs is uncertain. Furthermore, an ongoing MCS could be located somewhere across eastern NE/KS and the adjacent MO Valley Sunday morning. How this convection evolves through the day is also uncertain. Nevertheless, rich boundary layer moisture will be in place across the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley, with moderate to strong destabilization likely to the south of a surface boundary oriented northwest to southeast across portions of the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys. Some where risk appears likely, either from reinvigorated morning convection, or from new storm development along outflow. Given uncertainty into placement of key features, will hold off on introducing 15 percent probabilities at this time, but areas will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks.
Days 5-8/Monday-Thursday - Plains to the Midwest and Southeast
Modest west to northwesterly flow aloft will persist east of the Rockies through much of the forecast period. Organized severe potential is uncertain due to a lack of notable large scale forcing. While some severe risk is likely each day, this risk will be driven by mesoscale processes and convective evolution each day. Overall predictability is low through most of next week.
..Leitman.. 06/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, June 25
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, June 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, June 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, June 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, June 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, June 25 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180703 SPC AC 180703
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Sunday - Mid-MS Valley vicinity
A weak mid/upper shortwave trough over the Mid-MO Valley Sunday morning across the Mid-MS and lower OH Valley regions through the period. A surface low over the central Plains will spread east in tandem with the upper system, though the latitude at which this occurs is uncertain. Furthermore, an ongoing MCS could be located somewhere across eastern NE/KS and the adjacent MO Valley Sunday morning. How this convection evolves through the day is also uncertain. Nevertheless, rich boundary layer moisture will be in place across the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley, with moderate to strong destabilization likely to the south of a surface boundary oriented northwest to southeast across portions of the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys. Some where risk appears likely, either from reinvigorated morning convection, or from new storm development along outflow. Given uncertainty into placement of key features, will hold off on introducing 15 percent probabilities at this time, but areas will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks.
Days 5-8/Monday-Thursday - Plains to the Midwest and Southeast
Modest west to northwesterly flow aloft will persist east of the Rockies through much of the forecast period. Organized severe potential is uncertain due to a lack of notable large scale forcing. While some severe risk is likely each day, this risk will be driven by mesoscale processes and convective evolution each day. Overall predictability is low through most of next week.
..Leitman.. 06/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, June 18
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Friday, June 19
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Saturday, June 20
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Sunday, June 21
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, June 22
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, June 23
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, June 24
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, June 25
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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