Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, November 14
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely across the U.S. today and tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 140515
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely across the U.S. today and tonight.
Texas
An upper trough will develop eastward from the Southwest to southern Plains today. As this occurs, a 500 mb jet streak around 50-60 kt will overspread western/central and southern TX. The left exit region of the upper jet will coincide with a weak surface low traversing northeast NM into the TX South Plains. South/southeasterly low-level flow will transport modest boundary layer moisture northward across central TX toward the South Plains (mainly 50s F dewpoints) beneath cool temperatures aloft. Given cool thermodynamic profiles, as surface temperatures also will remain generally cool, instability will remain weak (500 J/kg MLCAPE or less). While vertical shear could support some organized storm structures, a lack of great buoyancy is expected to limit overall severe potential across TX. However, given cool temperatures aloft and the bulk of instability occurring between 850-500 mb within otherwise favorable shear, small hail could occur from portions of the TX Panhandle/South Plains toward central TX from late afternoon into tonight.
..Leitman/Chalmers.. 11/14/2026
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Sunday, November 15
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across central and the south Texas to the Gulf Coast.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 131932
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across central and the south Texas to the Gulf Coast.
Synopsis
The upper wave currently moving inland along the West Coast is forecast to weaken as it migrates into the southern Plains this weekend. Residual showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing by 12z Sunday across central TX to southwest OK owing to a combination of broad-scale ascent attendant to the wave and strong low-level warm advection. While some small hail appears possible with this early activity, buoyancy profiles will likely remain too shallow to support deep, robust convection.
To the south of ongoing showers/thunderstorms, southerly flow off the TX Gulf Coast will advect low to mid 60s dewpoints inland across the TX Coastal Plain. The combination of increased low-level moistening and some degree of diurnal heating will bolster warm-sector buoyancy through the day and support deeper, more intense convection. Thunderstorm activity will likely become increasingly focused southward into the warm sector along a consolidated outflow/cold front and/or along a weak surface trough. Latest medium/long-range guidance depicts parallel alignment of westerly flow aloft with the southward-sagging outflow boundary/cold front, which would favor a mixed/clustered storm mode. Given deeper buoyancy profiles and 40-50 knot mid-level flow across the Coastal Plain, effective bulk shear will likely be sufficient to support organized linear segments and/or semi-discrete cells. Coverage and duration of severe convection remains uncertain due to the potential for destructive storm interactions within a predominantly clustered storm mode.
..Moore.. 11/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Monday, November 16
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, November 16 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, November 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, November 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, November 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, November 20 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 131000 SPC AC 131000
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
The upper trough across the TX Gulf Coast is forecast to continue eastward and weaken as ridging intensifies over the central US. The strong surface response to the building ridge (1030-1035 mb) will favor cool, dry and stable offshore flow over much of the CONUS. Thunderstorms will likely be confined to the near-shore coastal waters of the Gulf through the remainder of the weekend and into early next week.
Mid to late week
Ensemble guidance eventually shows the upper ridge yielding to increasingly strong western US troughing sometime mid to late week. Model solutions vary, with AINWP guidance considerably stronger and faster than physics-based ensembles with ejecting the deep upper trough and surface low D5/Tues - D7/Thur. Regardless, it appears likely that stronger southwesterly flow aloft will move eastward from the Desert Southwest into the southern Rockies and eventually the central US, with increasing thunderstorm chances mid to late week next week. The prominent high pressure over the Midwest will likely delay substantial moisture return, casting significant uncertainty on any severe potential. Predictability remains low through much of the forecast period.
..Lyons.. 11/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, November 17
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, November 16 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, November 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, November 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, November 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, November 20 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 131000 SPC AC 131000
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
The upper trough across the TX Gulf Coast is forecast to continue eastward and weaken as ridging intensifies over the central US. The strong surface response to the building ridge (1030-1035 mb) will favor cool, dry and stable offshore flow over much of the CONUS. Thunderstorms will likely be confined to the near-shore coastal waters of the Gulf through the remainder of the weekend and into early next week.
Mid to late week
Ensemble guidance eventually shows the upper ridge yielding to increasingly strong western US troughing sometime mid to late week. Model solutions vary, with AINWP guidance considerably stronger and faster than physics-based ensembles with ejecting the deep upper trough and surface low D5/Tues - D7/Thur. Regardless, it appears likely that stronger southwesterly flow aloft will move eastward from the Desert Southwest into the southern Rockies and eventually the central US, with increasing thunderstorm chances mid to late week next week. The prominent high pressure over the Midwest will likely delay substantial moisture return, casting significant uncertainty on any severe potential. Predictability remains low through much of the forecast period.
..Lyons.. 11/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, November 18
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, November 16 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, November 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, November 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, November 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, November 20 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 131000 SPC AC 131000
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
The upper trough across the TX Gulf Coast is forecast to continue eastward and weaken as ridging intensifies over the central US. The strong surface response to the building ridge (1030-1035 mb) will favor cool, dry and stable offshore flow over much of the CONUS. Thunderstorms will likely be confined to the near-shore coastal waters of the Gulf through the remainder of the weekend and into early next week.
Mid to late week
Ensemble guidance eventually shows the upper ridge yielding to increasingly strong western US troughing sometime mid to late week. Model solutions vary, with AINWP guidance considerably stronger and faster than physics-based ensembles with ejecting the deep upper trough and surface low D5/Tues - D7/Thur. Regardless, it appears likely that stronger southwesterly flow aloft will move eastward from the Desert Southwest into the southern Rockies and eventually the central US, with increasing thunderstorm chances mid to late week next week. The prominent high pressure over the Midwest will likely delay substantial moisture return, casting significant uncertainty on any severe potential. Predictability remains low through much of the forecast period.
..Lyons.. 11/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, November 19
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, November 16 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, November 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, November 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, November 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, November 20 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 131000 SPC AC 131000
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
The upper trough across the TX Gulf Coast is forecast to continue eastward and weaken as ridging intensifies over the central US. The strong surface response to the building ridge (1030-1035 mb) will favor cool, dry and stable offshore flow over much of the CONUS. Thunderstorms will likely be confined to the near-shore coastal waters of the Gulf through the remainder of the weekend and into early next week.
Mid to late week
Ensemble guidance eventually shows the upper ridge yielding to increasingly strong western US troughing sometime mid to late week. Model solutions vary, with AINWP guidance considerably stronger and faster than physics-based ensembles with ejecting the deep upper trough and surface low D5/Tues - D7/Thur. Regardless, it appears likely that stronger southwesterly flow aloft will move eastward from the Desert Southwest into the southern Rockies and eventually the central US, with increasing thunderstorm chances mid to late week next week. The prominent high pressure over the Midwest will likely delay substantial moisture return, casting significant uncertainty on any severe potential. Predictability remains low through much of the forecast period.
..Lyons.. 11/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, November 20
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, November 16 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, November 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, November 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, November 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, November 20 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 131000 SPC AC 131000
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
The upper trough across the TX Gulf Coast is forecast to continue eastward and weaken as ridging intensifies over the central US. The strong surface response to the building ridge (1030-1035 mb) will favor cool, dry and stable offshore flow over much of the CONUS. Thunderstorms will likely be confined to the near-shore coastal waters of the Gulf through the remainder of the weekend and into early next week.
Mid to late week
Ensemble guidance eventually shows the upper ridge yielding to increasingly strong western US troughing sometime mid to late week. Model solutions vary, with AINWP guidance considerably stronger and faster than physics-based ensembles with ejecting the deep upper trough and surface low D5/Tues - D7/Thur. Regardless, it appears likely that stronger southwesterly flow aloft will move eastward from the Desert Southwest into the southern Rockies and eventually the central US, with increasing thunderstorm chances mid to late week next week. The prominent high pressure over the Midwest will likely delay substantial moisture return, casting significant uncertainty on any severe potential. Predictability remains low through much of the forecast period.
..Lyons.. 11/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, November 14
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Sunday, November 15
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Monday, November 16
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, November 17
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, November 18
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, November 19
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, November 20
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Your Severe Outlook
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