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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Thursday, July 23

Outlook Summary

Widely scattered severe storms capable of severe wind gusts and large hail are possible over portions of the central and southern High Plains this afternoon and evening. More isolated occurrences of damaging wind are possible from the middle Texas coast into Deep South Texas, the eastern Carolinas, and parts of the Columbia Basin into the northern Intermountain region.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 231618

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Valid 231630Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS

### SUMMARY

Widely scattered severe storms capable of severe wind gusts and large hail are possible over portions of the central and southern High Plains this afternoon and evening. More isolated occurrences of damaging wind are possible from the middle Texas coast into Deep South Texas, the eastern Carolinas, and parts of the Columbia Basin into the northern Intermountain region.

Central/southern High Plains including western Kansas

Surface analysis late this morning places a front draped from far southwest KS extending into eastern CO. The front and a dryline farther south will focus thunderstorm development later this afternoon as strong heating results in appreciable boundary layer destabilization. Water-vapor imagery shows an impulse over central CO moving slowly east to the north of a mid-level anticyclone centered over northwest TX. This upper disturbance and associated forcing for ascent coupled with weakening convective inhibition will lead to scattered storms developing by late afternoon. Models feature a vertically veering wind profile with 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear over western KS near the front, which will be sufficient for at least episodic supercell structures with a risk for large hail. Some upscale growth into a small cluster may occur during the evening as a southerly LLJ intensifies. Scattered severe gusts will be possible with this activity. Farther west and south along the dryline, a deeply mixed boundary layer and weaker shear will favor an isolated risk for severe gusts with the stronger downdrafts.

Middle Texas Coast to Deep South Texas

As Bertha continues westward over the northwest Gulf, a belt of enhanced mid-level flow will precede Bertha and spread atop a hot and moist boundary layer inland, with moderate instability developing by afternoon along the middle Texas coast. Ample deep-layer shear within the southwest quadrant of the parent system may support some cold pool organization. Steepened low-level lapse rates and high PW may yield a localized risk for severe gusts with scattered storms that develop near the coast and move inland over the coastal plain through the evening.

Columbia Basin/northern Intermountain West

Weak height falls are expected while mid/upper-level winds strengthen regionally ahead of an upper low off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. Daytime heating along favored terrain, in conjunction with the glancing influence of the passing disturbance, will aid in isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms by mid-afternoon within a moderately unstable and steep lapse rate environment. The strengthening upper-level winds will enhance vertical shear, supporting the potential for some storm organization with an associated risk for locally damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail.

Eastern Carolinas

Midday visible-satellite imagery shows scattered showers/thunderstorms along a west-east oriented frontal zone over southern NC. Cloud breaks south of convective cloud debris will promote additional heating near the coast and moderate destabilization by mid afternoon. A few of the stronger storms that develop this afternoon into the early evening will probably pose a localized risk for damaging gusts.

..Smith/Chalmers.. 07/23/2026

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Outlook for Friday, July 24

Outlook Summary

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging wind are possible on Friday across portions of the Dakotas into northern Minnesota.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 231725

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA

### SUMMARY

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging wind are possible on Friday across portions of the Dakotas into northern Minnesota.

Synopsis

A mid-level trough will move across the Canadian Prairies D2/Friday, with a belt of enhanced westerly flow aloft overspreading the High Plains into the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a low will move across central Manitoba with a trailing cold front extending into the northern Plains.

Dakotas/Northern Minnesota

Westerly flow aloft from the trough across Canada will move across the northern periphery of a strengthening mid-level ridge across the central Plains. With warming in the 850-700 mb level, it appears that capping will likely be in place across much of the corridor over the central Dakotas ahead of the surface front. Steep low to mid-level lapse rates should aid in at least moderate instability developing through the afternoon. As the wave ejects, some eroding/weakening of the cap is expected across the central Dakotas. Strong deep layer shear profiles will support initial supercell development along the front. Large hail and damaging wind will be the primary threats. It remains somewhat uncertain if storms will be able to root and become surface based, with increasing inhibition to the east. If a supercell can remain surface based as it moves into increasing inhibition to the east, tornado potential will increase given favorable deep layer shear and enlarged hodographs.

Storms will continue to spread eastward through the afternoon/evening into northern/central Minnesota. With increasing inhibition, it is likely that storm mode will gradually shift to elevated clusters, with potential for damaging wind.

Carolinas… Scattered thunderstorm development is expected near a surface boundary sagging across the Carolinas Friday afternoon. Vertically veering flow, increasing to around 20-30 kt around 1-3 km will provide around 25 kt effective shear. Given the moderately unstable air mass and steep low-level lapse rates, a few isolated organized storms/clusters may produce damaging winds.

..Thornton.. 07/23/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Saturday, July 25

Outlook Summary

Isolated severe storms will be possible across portions of southeastern Arizona on Saturday.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 231920

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA

### SUMMARY

Isolated severe storms will be possible across portions of southeastern Arizona on Saturday.

Synopsis

High amplitude ridging will build in across the central US on D3/Saturday. West to northwesterly flow aloft will move through the northern periphery of the ridge across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley.

Southeastern Arizona

Surface high pressure across the Four Corners will bring favorably moist east to southeasterly flow into southeastern Arizona. Convection will likely develop along the high terrain and spread westward with time through the afternoon/evening. Deep layer shear around 20-25 kts may allow for isolated organized storms capable of severe gusts, given deeply mixed profiles and steep low to mid-level lapse rates amid inverted-v soundings.

Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes Region

Several embedded disturbances will rotate through the flow across the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes Region. Moderate to strong instability is progged to extend across this region, however, warming in the 850-700 mb will likely result in strong capping across much of the region from the Great Lakes into the Midwest and Ohio Valley. This will likely inhibit convective development and overall severe potential in these regions.

..Thornton.. 07/23/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Sunday, July 26

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230726 SPC AC 230726

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-5/Sun-Mon – Upper Midwest toward the Ohio Valley

Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Upper Midwest to the Ohio Valley on Sunday and Monday as several shortwave impulses migrate through the area on the eastern periphery of a strong upper ridge over the Plains. A seasonally very moist airmass will reside across much of these areas, supporting strong destabilization each day. On Sunday, a corridor of severe thunderstorm potential appears possible across parts of MN/WI toward northern IA/IL as a weak shortwave impulse initially over the Dakotas spreads east. While details regarding storm coverage remain uncertain, sufficient deep layer shear and strong instability will be in place, and at least isolated storm clusters could pose a risk for damaging winds.

By Monday, an upper shortwave trough will emanating from an upper low near Hudson Bay will dig southward across the Great Lakes. This will result in increasing northwesterly flow aloft. Meanwhile, a surface low may move eastward across the Great Lakes near the international border while a stronger nocturnal low-level jet develops over parts of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This stronger flow will overspread a moist and unstable airmass, and potential for thunderstorm clusters developing into an MCS appears possible.

While details remain uncertain regarding convective evolution and coverage on Sunday and Monday, through broader synoptic pattern appears favorable for at least isolated severe thunderstorms. The 15 percent severe areas may shift some in the coming days as details become more clear.

Days 6-8/Tue-Thu

It is possible some severe potential could shift east/southeast on Tuesday toward the central Appalachians and the Mid-Atlantic. Deep-layer northwesterly flow will not be as strong as prior days, but could still be sufficient for some organized severe risk. Confidence in where greater risk corridors may develop is low, and will largely be influenced by convective evolution in the Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday periods.

A strong upper ridge will shift west across the western U.S. late in the period, bringing a broad area of generally weak deep-layer northwesterly flow to the eastern half of the CONUS. Some thunderstorm potential is likely within this typical summertime pattern across the Plain into the East, but severe potential is uncertain.

..Leitman.. 07/23/2026

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Outlook for Monday, July 27

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230726 SPC AC 230726

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-5/Sun-Mon – Upper Midwest toward the Ohio Valley

Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Upper Midwest to the Ohio Valley on Sunday and Monday as several shortwave impulses migrate through the area on the eastern periphery of a strong upper ridge over the Plains. A seasonally very moist airmass will reside across much of these areas, supporting strong destabilization each day. On Sunday, a corridor of severe thunderstorm potential appears possible across parts of MN/WI toward northern IA/IL as a weak shortwave impulse initially over the Dakotas spreads east. While details regarding storm coverage remain uncertain, sufficient deep layer shear and strong instability will be in place, and at least isolated storm clusters could pose a risk for damaging winds.

By Monday, an upper shortwave trough will emanating from an upper low near Hudson Bay will dig southward across the Great Lakes. This will result in increasing northwesterly flow aloft. Meanwhile, a surface low may move eastward across the Great Lakes near the international border while a stronger nocturnal low-level jet develops over parts of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This stronger flow will overspread a moist and unstable airmass, and potential for thunderstorm clusters developing into an MCS appears possible.

While details remain uncertain regarding convective evolution and coverage on Sunday and Monday, through broader synoptic pattern appears favorable for at least isolated severe thunderstorms. The 15 percent severe areas may shift some in the coming days as details become more clear.

Days 6-8/Tue-Thu

It is possible some severe potential could shift east/southeast on Tuesday toward the central Appalachians and the Mid-Atlantic. Deep-layer northwesterly flow will not be as strong as prior days, but could still be sufficient for some organized severe risk. Confidence in where greater risk corridors may develop is low, and will largely be influenced by convective evolution in the Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday periods.

A strong upper ridge will shift west across the western U.S. late in the period, bringing a broad area of generally weak deep-layer northwesterly flow to the eastern half of the CONUS. Some thunderstorm potential is likely within this typical summertime pattern across the Plain into the East, but severe potential is uncertain.

..Leitman.. 07/23/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, July 28

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230726 SPC AC 230726

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-5/Sun-Mon – Upper Midwest toward the Ohio Valley

Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Upper Midwest to the Ohio Valley on Sunday and Monday as several shortwave impulses migrate through the area on the eastern periphery of a strong upper ridge over the Plains. A seasonally very moist airmass will reside across much of these areas, supporting strong destabilization each day. On Sunday, a corridor of severe thunderstorm potential appears possible across parts of MN/WI toward northern IA/IL as a weak shortwave impulse initially over the Dakotas spreads east. While details regarding storm coverage remain uncertain, sufficient deep layer shear and strong instability will be in place, and at least isolated storm clusters could pose a risk for damaging winds.

By Monday, an upper shortwave trough will emanating from an upper low near Hudson Bay will dig southward across the Great Lakes. This will result in increasing northwesterly flow aloft. Meanwhile, a surface low may move eastward across the Great Lakes near the international border while a stronger nocturnal low-level jet develops over parts of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This stronger flow will overspread a moist and unstable airmass, and potential for thunderstorm clusters developing into an MCS appears possible.

While details remain uncertain regarding convective evolution and coverage on Sunday and Monday, through broader synoptic pattern appears favorable for at least isolated severe thunderstorms. The 15 percent severe areas may shift some in the coming days as details become more clear.

Days 6-8/Tue-Thu

It is possible some severe potential could shift east/southeast on Tuesday toward the central Appalachians and the Mid-Atlantic. Deep-layer northwesterly flow will not be as strong as prior days, but could still be sufficient for some organized severe risk. Confidence in where greater risk corridors may develop is low, and will largely be influenced by convective evolution in the Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday periods.

A strong upper ridge will shift west across the western U.S. late in the period, bringing a broad area of generally weak deep-layer northwesterly flow to the eastern half of the CONUS. Some thunderstorm potential is likely within this typical summertime pattern across the Plain into the East, but severe potential is uncertain.

..Leitman.. 07/23/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, July 29

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230726 SPC AC 230726

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-5/Sun-Mon – Upper Midwest toward the Ohio Valley

Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Upper Midwest to the Ohio Valley on Sunday and Monday as several shortwave impulses migrate through the area on the eastern periphery of a strong upper ridge over the Plains. A seasonally very moist airmass will reside across much of these areas, supporting strong destabilization each day. On Sunday, a corridor of severe thunderstorm potential appears possible across parts of MN/WI toward northern IA/IL as a weak shortwave impulse initially over the Dakotas spreads east. While details regarding storm coverage remain uncertain, sufficient deep layer shear and strong instability will be in place, and at least isolated storm clusters could pose a risk for damaging winds.

By Monday, an upper shortwave trough will emanating from an upper low near Hudson Bay will dig southward across the Great Lakes. This will result in increasing northwesterly flow aloft. Meanwhile, a surface low may move eastward across the Great Lakes near the international border while a stronger nocturnal low-level jet develops over parts of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This stronger flow will overspread a moist and unstable airmass, and potential for thunderstorm clusters developing into an MCS appears possible.

While details remain uncertain regarding convective evolution and coverage on Sunday and Monday, through broader synoptic pattern appears favorable for at least isolated severe thunderstorms. The 15 percent severe areas may shift some in the coming days as details become more clear.

Days 6-8/Tue-Thu

It is possible some severe potential could shift east/southeast on Tuesday toward the central Appalachians and the Mid-Atlantic. Deep-layer northwesterly flow will not be as strong as prior days, but could still be sufficient for some organized severe risk. Confidence in where greater risk corridors may develop is low, and will largely be influenced by convective evolution in the Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday periods.

A strong upper ridge will shift west across the western U.S. late in the period, bringing a broad area of generally weak deep-layer northwesterly flow to the eastern half of the CONUS. Some thunderstorm potential is likely within this typical summertime pattern across the Plain into the East, but severe potential is uncertain.

..Leitman.. 07/23/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Thursday, July 30

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230726 SPC AC 230726

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-5/Sun-Mon – Upper Midwest toward the Ohio Valley

Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Upper Midwest to the Ohio Valley on Sunday and Monday as several shortwave impulses migrate through the area on the eastern periphery of a strong upper ridge over the Plains. A seasonally very moist airmass will reside across much of these areas, supporting strong destabilization each day. On Sunday, a corridor of severe thunderstorm potential appears possible across parts of MN/WI toward northern IA/IL as a weak shortwave impulse initially over the Dakotas spreads east. While details regarding storm coverage remain uncertain, sufficient deep layer shear and strong instability will be in place, and at least isolated storm clusters could pose a risk for damaging winds.

By Monday, an upper shortwave trough will emanating from an upper low near Hudson Bay will dig southward across the Great Lakes. This will result in increasing northwesterly flow aloft. Meanwhile, a surface low may move eastward across the Great Lakes near the international border while a stronger nocturnal low-level jet develops over parts of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This stronger flow will overspread a moist and unstable airmass, and potential for thunderstorm clusters developing into an MCS appears possible.

While details remain uncertain regarding convective evolution and coverage on Sunday and Monday, through broader synoptic pattern appears favorable for at least isolated severe thunderstorms. The 15 percent severe areas may shift some in the coming days as details become more clear.

Days 6-8/Tue-Thu

It is possible some severe potential could shift east/southeast on Tuesday toward the central Appalachians and the Mid-Atlantic. Deep-layer northwesterly flow will not be as strong as prior days, but could still be sufficient for some organized severe risk. Confidence in where greater risk corridors may develop is low, and will largely be influenced by convective evolution in the Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday periods.

A strong upper ridge will shift west across the western U.S. late in the period, bringing a broad area of generally weak deep-layer northwesterly flow to the eastern half of the CONUS. Some thunderstorm potential is likely within this typical summertime pattern across the Plain into the East, but severe potential is uncertain.

..Leitman.. 07/23/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Thursday, July 23

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 15%

Friday, July 24

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Saturday, July 25

ANY SEVERE: 5%

Sunday, July 26

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Monday, July 27

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Tuesday, July 28

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Wednesday, July 29

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Thursday, July 30

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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