Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, October 8
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 080552
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight.
DISCUSSION
A mid-level cyclonic flow pattern will be in place today from the upper Mississippi Valley into the Northeast, as west-northwesterly flow aloft remains over most of the remainder of the nation. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located along the Gulf Coast, where isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible, mainly from southeastern Louisiana eastward to Florida. Additional storms may develop in parts of the Desert Southwest and Four Corners region. Scattered storms will also be possible in Iowa and from northern New York into northern New England. No severe threat is expected today or tonight across the continental U.S.
..Broyles/Squitieri.. 10/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Friday, October 9
Outlook Summary
A risk for tornadoes will develop across the northeastern Gulf coastal areas late Friday into early Saturday ahead of Isaias.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 080530
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN ALABAMA…MOST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE…AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
### SUMMARY
A risk for tornadoes will develop across the northeastern Gulf coastal areas late Friday into early Saturday ahead of Isaias.
Northern Gulf Coast
The latest NHC forecast track brings Isaias into southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle Friday night and into early Saturday morning, which places the most favorable tornado risk to the east. While there is uncertainty regarding forward speed, the mid 70s F dewpoints and therefore favorable instability will at least move inland across the coastal counties of AL/FL Panhandle by 12Z Saturday (the end of the Day 2 period).
Several CAMs are now resolving moderate to strong UH tracks, especially over the western FL Panhandle. Model forecast soundings, while somewhat variable in regard to the exact amount of instability, all appear sufficient to support supercells with tornado risk as shear and low-level ascent will both be favorable. Supercells may become evident on radar over the Gulf, with tornado threat increasing as cells move ashore and surface winds gain a southerly component. As such, tornado probabilities have been increased for Friday Night.
..Jewell.. 10/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Saturday, October 10
Outlook Summary
A corridor of tornado risk may develop out of the Florida Panhandle and into parts of Georgia and eastern Alabama on Saturday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 080730
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN GEORGIA AND EASTERN ALABAMA
### SUMMARY
A corridor of tornado risk may develop out of the Florida Panhandle and into parts of Georgia and eastern Alabama on Saturday.
Southeastern States
As Isaias merges with the developing shortwave trough over the Lower MS Valley on Saturday, moderate to strong wind fields will develop over much of the Southeast. East of the surface low track, strong southerly low-level winds will aid northward movement of moisture and instability from the FL Panhandle northward across eastern AL and across much of GA and the eastern Carolinas.
It is anticipated that severe storms may be ongoing within a north-south oriented band east of the low, roughly from the FL Panhandle into far eastern AL and southwest GA. Some of the early day cells near or south of the effective warm front may produce tornadoes as low-level shear will be very strong. This threat area should lift north during the day across AL and GA. It should be noted that depending on the exact surface low track and warm front position, the Slight Risk area may be adjusted in later outlooks.
Overnight, the warm front will continue to lift north, with additional destabilization possible toward the southern Appalachians, and Carolinas. A low severe probability has been added for the night time scenario, which should see generally lesser (but still favorable) shear values and boundary layer instability.
AZ
The remnants of Rachel are forecast to spread across the region late Saturday into Sunday. As this occurs, moisture and instability will increase, as well as deep layer shear as a shortwave trough moves toward the region. Given the nocturnal timing of destabilization, and substantial model differences, will defer possible severe probabilities to later outlooks. At this time, it appears isolated cells cannot be ruled out into Sunday morning, but severe potential will depend heavily on proper destabilization.
..Jewell.. 10/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Sunday, October 11
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, October 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, October 12 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, October 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, October 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, October 15 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080821 SPC AC 080821
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0321 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
On Sun/D4, a shortwave trough and surface low (previously associated with the tropical cyclone) will move east across the TN/OH Valleys, and toward the Mid Atlantic Sunday night. A warm front and northward surge of moisture will occur from GA/Carolinas into VA/DelMarVa, resulting in at least a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE. Substantial rain and thunderstorms are likely to exist over the region, and therefore boundary layer warming/destabilization is in question. Most models show little if any daytime heating. As such, predictability is low at this time, but at least low severe probabilities could be added in later outlooks as the scenario evolves.
To the west, a shortwave trough with tropical remnants will affect southern CA and AZ, with strong southwest winds aloft. Substantial model differences exist regarding destabilization due to increasing clouds and rain, though some severe wind and even hail potential cannot be ruled out where instability is locally higher. This area too may see at least low severe probabilities in later outlooks as predictability increases.
For the remainder of the period through Thu/D8, a potential western trough ejection may occur into the Plains, with the strongest instability on or after Wed/D7 as moisture return becomes more established with upper 60s F dewpoints possible from TX into OK and KS. As such, this area will also be monitored as the event nears, and as trough timing becomes more predictable.
..Jewell.. 10/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, October 12
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, October 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, October 12 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, October 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, October 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, October 15 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080821 SPC AC 080821
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0321 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
On Sun/D4, a shortwave trough and surface low (previously associated with the tropical cyclone) will move east across the TN/OH Valleys, and toward the Mid Atlantic Sunday night. A warm front and northward surge of moisture will occur from GA/Carolinas into VA/DelMarVa, resulting in at least a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE. Substantial rain and thunderstorms are likely to exist over the region, and therefore boundary layer warming/destabilization is in question. Most models show little if any daytime heating. As such, predictability is low at this time, but at least low severe probabilities could be added in later outlooks as the scenario evolves.
To the west, a shortwave trough with tropical remnants will affect southern CA and AZ, with strong southwest winds aloft. Substantial model differences exist regarding destabilization due to increasing clouds and rain, though some severe wind and even hail potential cannot be ruled out where instability is locally higher. This area too may see at least low severe probabilities in later outlooks as predictability increases.
For the remainder of the period through Thu/D8, a potential western trough ejection may occur into the Plains, with the strongest instability on or after Wed/D7 as moisture return becomes more established with upper 60s F dewpoints possible from TX into OK and KS. As such, this area will also be monitored as the event nears, and as trough timing becomes more predictable.
..Jewell.. 10/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, October 13
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, October 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, October 12 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, October 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, October 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, October 15 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080821 SPC AC 080821
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0321 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
On Sun/D4, a shortwave trough and surface low (previously associated with the tropical cyclone) will move east across the TN/OH Valleys, and toward the Mid Atlantic Sunday night. A warm front and northward surge of moisture will occur from GA/Carolinas into VA/DelMarVa, resulting in at least a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE. Substantial rain and thunderstorms are likely to exist over the region, and therefore boundary layer warming/destabilization is in question. Most models show little if any daytime heating. As such, predictability is low at this time, but at least low severe probabilities could be added in later outlooks as the scenario evolves.
To the west, a shortwave trough with tropical remnants will affect southern CA and AZ, with strong southwest winds aloft. Substantial model differences exist regarding destabilization due to increasing clouds and rain, though some severe wind and even hail potential cannot be ruled out where instability is locally higher. This area too may see at least low severe probabilities in later outlooks as predictability increases.
For the remainder of the period through Thu/D8, a potential western trough ejection may occur into the Plains, with the strongest instability on or after Wed/D7 as moisture return becomes more established with upper 60s F dewpoints possible from TX into OK and KS. As such, this area will also be monitored as the event nears, and as trough timing becomes more predictable.
..Jewell.. 10/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, October 14
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, October 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, October 12 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, October 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, October 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, October 15 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080821 SPC AC 080821
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0321 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
On Sun/D4, a shortwave trough and surface low (previously associated with the tropical cyclone) will move east across the TN/OH Valleys, and toward the Mid Atlantic Sunday night. A warm front and northward surge of moisture will occur from GA/Carolinas into VA/DelMarVa, resulting in at least a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE. Substantial rain and thunderstorms are likely to exist over the region, and therefore boundary layer warming/destabilization is in question. Most models show little if any daytime heating. As such, predictability is low at this time, but at least low severe probabilities could be added in later outlooks as the scenario evolves.
To the west, a shortwave trough with tropical remnants will affect southern CA and AZ, with strong southwest winds aloft. Substantial model differences exist regarding destabilization due to increasing clouds and rain, though some severe wind and even hail potential cannot be ruled out where instability is locally higher. This area too may see at least low severe probabilities in later outlooks as predictability increases.
For the remainder of the period through Thu/D8, a potential western trough ejection may occur into the Plains, with the strongest instability on or after Wed/D7 as moisture return becomes more established with upper 60s F dewpoints possible from TX into OK and KS. As such, this area will also be monitored as the event nears, and as trough timing becomes more predictable.
..Jewell.. 10/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, October 15
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, October 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, October 12 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, October 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, October 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, October 15 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080821 SPC AC 080821
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0321 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
On Sun/D4, a shortwave trough and surface low (previously associated with the tropical cyclone) will move east across the TN/OH Valleys, and toward the Mid Atlantic Sunday night. A warm front and northward surge of moisture will occur from GA/Carolinas into VA/DelMarVa, resulting in at least a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE. Substantial rain and thunderstorms are likely to exist over the region, and therefore boundary layer warming/destabilization is in question. Most models show little if any daytime heating. As such, predictability is low at this time, but at least low severe probabilities could be added in later outlooks as the scenario evolves.
To the west, a shortwave trough with tropical remnants will affect southern CA and AZ, with strong southwest winds aloft. Substantial model differences exist regarding destabilization due to increasing clouds and rain, though some severe wind and even hail potential cannot be ruled out where instability is locally higher. This area too may see at least low severe probabilities in later outlooks as predictability increases.
For the remainder of the period through Thu/D8, a potential western trough ejection may occur into the Plains, with the strongest instability on or after Wed/D7 as moisture return becomes more established with upper 60s F dewpoints possible from TX into OK and KS. As such, this area will also be monitored as the event nears, and as trough timing becomes more predictable.
..Jewell.. 10/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, October 8
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Friday, October 9
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Saturday, October 10
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Sunday, October 11
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, October 12
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, October 13
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, October 14
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, October 15
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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