Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, April 30
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and gusty winds will be possible mainly this evening and tonight across parts of southwest/south-central Texas towards the middle Texas Coast, and this afternoon across coastal/southern Louisiana.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 301950
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026
Valid 302000Z - 011200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and gusty winds will be possible mainly this evening and tonight across parts of southwest/south-central Texas towards the middle Texas Coast, and this afternoon across coastal/southern Louisiana.
20Z Update
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only slight changes made to ongoing probabilities to account for the latest guidance consensus.
..Squitieri.. 04/30/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1057 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026/
Texas
A mid- to upper-level trough west of northern Baja California late this morning is forecast to quickly move east reaching Chihuahua and southwest TX by daybreak Friday. Strong westerly mid to high-level flow will be maintained across the southern tier of states. Surface analysis showed a west-east oriented stalled front across south TX eastward across coastal LA and into north FL. Widespread cloud cover will limit diurnal heating today north of the boundary despite a fetch of steeper 700-500 mb lapse rates being maintained across northern Mexico and over TX in the vicinity of the Rio Grande. A couple of stronger thunderstorms are possible through the early afternoon from central into parts of southeast TX (reference MCD #627 for short-term details). Farther west, ascent preceding the shortwave trough will promote scattered showers and storms developing over southwest TX late this evening with additional activity (numerous in coverage) forecast to develop/spread east towards the middle TX Coast through early Friday morning. Sufficient MUCAPE and strong cloud-layer shear will support an isolated threat for severe hail with any elevated supercells that can develop. Strong to locally severe gusts may also occur as supercells encounter greater instability across south-central to coastal TX late tonight, even if they remain slightly elevated.
Coastal/Southern Louisiana
A convectively reinforced surface front is draped across southern/coastal LA this morning, with thunderstorms ongoing to its north. Greater instability will exist to the south of the front across coastal LA this afternoon. Thunderstorms that develop/move across the front later today could pose some risk for locally damaging winds and marginally severe hail given weak to moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Friday, May 1
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe thunderstorm development is possible across parts of South Texas and middle Texas coastal areas, parts of southeastern Louisiana, and the western Florida Panhandle Friday afternoon through Friday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 301709
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS INTO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe thunderstorm development is possible across parts of South Texas and middle Texas coastal areas, parts of southeastern Louisiana, and the western Florida Panhandle Friday afternoon through Friday night.
Synopsis
Broad cyclonic flow aloft will persist across much of the U.S. east of the Continental Divide on Friday. A shortwave trough will dig through the central Plains into the Southeast through the period. Within the subtropical jet, another shortwave trough will begin the day in the Trans-Pecos and move eastward roughly along the Gulf Coast. These two features will eventually phase by late afternoon into the evening. The mid-level jet will increase in intensity in response. At the surface, a stalled boundary will be positioned from South Texas and eastward along the Gulf Coast. As the southern stream trough progresses east, a weak frontal low will develop and perhaps allow some inland advancement of upper 60s/low 70s F dewpoints.
South Texas/Middle Texas Coast
Rich moisture will exist south of the surface boundary. Southward progression of the boundary will determine how much risk of surface-based convection there will be. Given the amount of precipitation north of the front, there may be a tendency for most storms to be undercut except closer to the coast. With 60+ kts of effective shear, supercells will be possible despite modest buoyancy/mid-level lapse rates. Where storms can remain surface based, damaging winds and perhaps a tornado would be possible. Large hail could occur even with storms that become slightly elevated.
Southeast Louisiana into Florida Panhandle
Severe potential along the central/eastern Gulf coast hinges on the degree of inland moisture advancement. The expectation is for low-level warm advection to increase with time and eastward extent. This would suggest slightly higher confidence of near-surface/surface-based storms in parts of the Florida Panhandle to the Apalachicola vicinity. A mix of linear and supercell structures appears possible. Damaging winds and large hail may occur with the strongest storms. The tornado threat is more conditional, but nonzero. This threat would be maximized with any discrete storms that develop and move inland.
..Wendt.. 04/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Saturday, May 2
Outlook Summary
Strong to marginally severe storms are possible in southern Georgia into northern/central Florida.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 301928
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL FLORIDA
### SUMMARY
Strong to marginally severe storms are possible in southern Georgia into northern/central Florida.
Synopsis
A large upper trough across the eastern U.S. will continue to pivot through the Southeast. A surface cold front will move southward into the Florida Peninsula.
Southern Georgia into Florida
Rich low-level moisture (upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) is expected to exist ahead of the southward-moving cold front. Mid-level ascent will be strongest across southern Georgia and North Florida, diminishing with southward extent. Strong flow within the 850-500 mb layer will help to organize convection. Areas that receive greater surface heating could allow a few strong to severe storms to develop during the late morning/afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be strong, but will also be parallel to the front. At least some activity may have a tendency to be undercut. Both supercells and small clusters will be possible. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary concerns. Low-level shear will be greater in the morning and decrease with time as the low-level jet moves northeast, leading to a more uncertain tornado threat.
..Wendt.. 04/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Sunday, May 3
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, May 3 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, May 4 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, May 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, May 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, May 7 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300900 SPC AC 300900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
Late this coming weekend into early next week, it still appears that at least a transient blocking high may continue to evolve offshore of the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast. It remains a bit uncertain how long this will persist before becoming suppressed, and an evolving low to its southeast is forced inland across southern California into the Southwest.
Latest medium range guidance continues to indicate that it is possible that a short wave perturbation could emerge from the remnant low/troughing, in advance of another significant short wave impulse emerging from the higher latitudes before amplifying southeastward to the lee of the Rockies, through the Atlantic Seaboard by the end of the period. However, it now appears probable that modest troughing, perhaps with a continuing cyclonic circulation, will linger near and south of the Southwestern international border.
In lower levels, southerly moist return flow may commence by early next week across the southern into central Great Plains as surface troughing deepens to the lee of the Rockies. This may begin to more substantively advect northeastward toward the Ohio Valley, in advance of a southward advancing cold front associated with the digging mid-level troughing. However, there is notable spread among the model output concerning potential surface cyclogenesis, near and northeast of the Rockies.
Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development appears possible from parts of the central and southern Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley by Tuesday, if not Monday. However, inhibition associated with warm elevated mixed-layer air overspreading the southern Great Plains may become a limiting factor, as low-level moisture becomes more supportive of strong destabilization.
There remains at least some signal in the model output for potentially more widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development across the lower/middle Mississippi Valley into Ohio Valley by next Wednesday, perhaps into Thursday. However, with uncertainties remaining sizable at this extended time frame, severe probabilities still appear less than 15 percent.
..Kerr.. 04/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, May 4
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, May 3 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, May 4 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, May 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, May 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, May 7 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300900 SPC AC 300900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
Late this coming weekend into early next week, it still appears that at least a transient blocking high may continue to evolve offshore of the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast. It remains a bit uncertain how long this will persist before becoming suppressed, and an evolving low to its southeast is forced inland across southern California into the Southwest.
Latest medium range guidance continues to indicate that it is possible that a short wave perturbation could emerge from the remnant low/troughing, in advance of another significant short wave impulse emerging from the higher latitudes before amplifying southeastward to the lee of the Rockies, through the Atlantic Seaboard by the end of the period. However, it now appears probable that modest troughing, perhaps with a continuing cyclonic circulation, will linger near and south of the Southwestern international border.
In lower levels, southerly moist return flow may commence by early next week across the southern into central Great Plains as surface troughing deepens to the lee of the Rockies. This may begin to more substantively advect northeastward toward the Ohio Valley, in advance of a southward advancing cold front associated with the digging mid-level troughing. However, there is notable spread among the model output concerning potential surface cyclogenesis, near and northeast of the Rockies.
Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development appears possible from parts of the central and southern Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley by Tuesday, if not Monday. However, inhibition associated with warm elevated mixed-layer air overspreading the southern Great Plains may become a limiting factor, as low-level moisture becomes more supportive of strong destabilization.
There remains at least some signal in the model output for potentially more widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development across the lower/middle Mississippi Valley into Ohio Valley by next Wednesday, perhaps into Thursday. However, with uncertainties remaining sizable at this extended time frame, severe probabilities still appear less than 15 percent.
..Kerr.. 04/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, May 5
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, May 3 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, May 4 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, May 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, May 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, May 7 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300900 SPC AC 300900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
Late this coming weekend into early next week, it still appears that at least a transient blocking high may continue to evolve offshore of the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast. It remains a bit uncertain how long this will persist before becoming suppressed, and an evolving low to its southeast is forced inland across southern California into the Southwest.
Latest medium range guidance continues to indicate that it is possible that a short wave perturbation could emerge from the remnant low/troughing, in advance of another significant short wave impulse emerging from the higher latitudes before amplifying southeastward to the lee of the Rockies, through the Atlantic Seaboard by the end of the period. However, it now appears probable that modest troughing, perhaps with a continuing cyclonic circulation, will linger near and south of the Southwestern international border.
In lower levels, southerly moist return flow may commence by early next week across the southern into central Great Plains as surface troughing deepens to the lee of the Rockies. This may begin to more substantively advect northeastward toward the Ohio Valley, in advance of a southward advancing cold front associated with the digging mid-level troughing. However, there is notable spread among the model output concerning potential surface cyclogenesis, near and northeast of the Rockies.
Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development appears possible from parts of the central and southern Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley by Tuesday, if not Monday. However, inhibition associated with warm elevated mixed-layer air overspreading the southern Great Plains may become a limiting factor, as low-level moisture becomes more supportive of strong destabilization.
There remains at least some signal in the model output for potentially more widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development across the lower/middle Mississippi Valley into Ohio Valley by next Wednesday, perhaps into Thursday. However, with uncertainties remaining sizable at this extended time frame, severe probabilities still appear less than 15 percent.
..Kerr.. 04/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, May 6
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, May 3 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, May 4 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, May 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, May 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, May 7 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300900 SPC AC 300900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
Late this coming weekend into early next week, it still appears that at least a transient blocking high may continue to evolve offshore of the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast. It remains a bit uncertain how long this will persist before becoming suppressed, and an evolving low to its southeast is forced inland across southern California into the Southwest.
Latest medium range guidance continues to indicate that it is possible that a short wave perturbation could emerge from the remnant low/troughing, in advance of another significant short wave impulse emerging from the higher latitudes before amplifying southeastward to the lee of the Rockies, through the Atlantic Seaboard by the end of the period. However, it now appears probable that modest troughing, perhaps with a continuing cyclonic circulation, will linger near and south of the Southwestern international border.
In lower levels, southerly moist return flow may commence by early next week across the southern into central Great Plains as surface troughing deepens to the lee of the Rockies. This may begin to more substantively advect northeastward toward the Ohio Valley, in advance of a southward advancing cold front associated with the digging mid-level troughing. However, there is notable spread among the model output concerning potential surface cyclogenesis, near and northeast of the Rockies.
Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development appears possible from parts of the central and southern Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley by Tuesday, if not Monday. However, inhibition associated with warm elevated mixed-layer air overspreading the southern Great Plains may become a limiting factor, as low-level moisture becomes more supportive of strong destabilization.
There remains at least some signal in the model output for potentially more widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development across the lower/middle Mississippi Valley into Ohio Valley by next Wednesday, perhaps into Thursday. However, with uncertainties remaining sizable at this extended time frame, severe probabilities still appear less than 15 percent.
..Kerr.. 04/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, May 7
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, May 3 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, May 4 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, May 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, May 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, May 7 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300900 SPC AC 300900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
Late this coming weekend into early next week, it still appears that at least a transient blocking high may continue to evolve offshore of the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast. It remains a bit uncertain how long this will persist before becoming suppressed, and an evolving low to its southeast is forced inland across southern California into the Southwest.
Latest medium range guidance continues to indicate that it is possible that a short wave perturbation could emerge from the remnant low/troughing, in advance of another significant short wave impulse emerging from the higher latitudes before amplifying southeastward to the lee of the Rockies, through the Atlantic Seaboard by the end of the period. However, it now appears probable that modest troughing, perhaps with a continuing cyclonic circulation, will linger near and south of the Southwestern international border.
In lower levels, southerly moist return flow may commence by early next week across the southern into central Great Plains as surface troughing deepens to the lee of the Rockies. This may begin to more substantively advect northeastward toward the Ohio Valley, in advance of a southward advancing cold front associated with the digging mid-level troughing. However, there is notable spread among the model output concerning potential surface cyclogenesis, near and northeast of the Rockies.
Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development appears possible from parts of the central and southern Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley by Tuesday, if not Monday. However, inhibition associated with warm elevated mixed-layer air overspreading the southern Great Plains may become a limiting factor, as low-level moisture becomes more supportive of strong destabilization.
There remains at least some signal in the model output for potentially more widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development across the lower/middle Mississippi Valley into Ohio Valley by next Wednesday, perhaps into Thursday. However, with uncertainties remaining sizable at this extended time frame, severe probabilities still appear less than 15 percent.
..Kerr.. 04/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, April 30
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Friday, May 1
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Saturday, May 2
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Sunday, May 3
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, May 4
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, May 5
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, May 6
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, May 7
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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