Severe Weather Outlook

show me my personal outlook →

Hayley here - Do you want to see severe weather in your calendar?

* it's like an add-on for your digital calendar NOT a paper calendar

National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Friday, August 21

Saturday, August 22

Sunday, August 23

Monday, August 24

Tuesday, August 25

Wednesday, August 26

Thursday, August 27

Friday, August 28

Outlook for Friday, August 21

Outlook Summary

Scattered damaging hail (some greater than 2 inch diameter) and severe wind gusts may occur over parts of the central Plains this afternoon and evening. Scattered storms, some with severe wind gusts and hail, also are possible across parts of the Midwest. Scattered to numerous storms with damaging wind gusts are possible over the Carolinas and Southeast.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 15%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 210646

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS…THE MIDWEST AND THE CAROLINAS

CORRECTED FOR TEXT

SUMMARY

Scattered damaging hail (some greater than 2 inch diameter) and severe wind gusts may occur over parts of the central Plains this afternoon and evening. Scattered storms, some with severe wind gusts and hail, also are possible across parts of the Midwest. Scattered to numerous storms with damaging wind gusts are possible over the Carolinas and Southeast.

Central Plains

Mid-level ridging over the western US is forecast to intensify, strengthening northwesterly flow aloft over much of the central US. Several embedded disturbances will pass overhead with the enhanced northwesterlies through the day. A surface low will move southeastward through the Great Lakes as a weak trailing cold front moves southward through the central Plains and Midwest.

Ahead of the front, a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates will shift eastward across the central Plains toward the Mid-MO Valley atop a corridor of rich low-level moisture. Diurnal destabilization should result in 3000-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE from SD to NE. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected from the Black Hills southeastward along the cold front. Elongated/straight hodographs and 45+ kt effective shear will favor initial supercells. Large to very large hail (some greater than 2 inches diameter) will be possible. With time, a forward propagating cluster or two may develop and move southeast across parts of NE and KS with the potential for severe gusts (a few near 70-80 mph). It is unclear exactly how far southeast any storms will persist overnight, but any more substantial clustering could allow at least an isolated severe threat to continue into early Saturday.

A much drier and hotter environment over the High Plains to the west could also support isolated to widely scattered high-based storms from eastern CO into western KS. Very steep lapse rates in the lowest 2-3 km with modest buoyancy aloft could allow a few severe gusts.

Midwest

Beneath the upper trough over the western Great Lakes, cool mid-level temperatures and robust surface moisture should result in moderate destabilization from WI into eastern IA and northwest IL. Scattered thunderstorms by mid afternoon ahead of the cold front spreading southeastward. Enhanced northwesterly flow with deep-layer shear of 30-40 kt will promote a mix of organized clusters and supercells. The large buoyancy will support a risk for damaging gusts and some hail.

Southeast and Gulf Coast

A broad upper trough will move across the central US into parts of the southern Appalachians while a weak cold front moves southward from the mid Atlantic today and tonight. Weak ascent from the upper trough and near the front should focus diurnal thunderstorm activity across the Carolinas and southern Appalachians. Warm surface temperatures and plentiful boundary-layer moisture will support large buoyancy (3000+ J/kg MLCAPE) through the afternoon and evening despite modest mid-level lapse rates. With scattered to numerous storms expected, a few organized clusters may emerge with a risk primarily for damaging wind gusts. Slight enhancement of the westerly flow aloft could also support some isolated hail with the stronger updrafts.

Farther south and west, a very humid and warm air mass is forecast to become strongly unstable by early afternoon across the lower MS Valley and Gulf Coast. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected along prior outflows and a weak, southward moving cold front from East TX into LA/MS. The very strong buoyancy and high PWAT content will support clustering and strong downdrafts with sporadic damaging gust potential. Otherwise, weak vertical shear will limit overall organization.

..Lyons/Weinman.. 08/21/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

← back to overview

Outlook for Saturday, August 22

Outlook Summary

Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of wind gusts and isolated large hail will be possible in the Ohio Valley and Arkansas vicinity. Severe gusts are possible across the central High Plains and northern Idaho into western Montana.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind 5%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 210548

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHERN IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA…THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS…ARKANSAS AND VICINITY…AND THE OHIO VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of wind gusts and isolated large hail will be possible in the Ohio Valley and Arkansas vicinity. Severe gusts are possible across the central High Plains and northern Idaho into western Montana.

Northern Idaho and western Montana

A strong mid-level shortwave trough will move into the Northwest on Saturday with modest diffluence ahead of it during the day. Strong heating should result in steep lapse rates and weak instability across the region. Storms should develop over the mountains by midday and advance northeast. As 6km flow strengthens to ~40 knots by mid-afternoon, adequate shear should be in place for a few organized storms. The steep lapse rates and inverted-v thermodynamic profile will support severe wind gusts as the primary threat.

Central High Plains

Diurnal, terrain driven thunderstorms will develop by early afternoon and eventually move into the adjacent Plains by late afternoon/evening. Forecast soundings show moderate to potentially strong instability across the Plains with moderately steep lapse rates and dewpoints perhaps into the low 60s. The primary limiting factor will be shear with less than 30 knots of flow below 300mb. However, enough flow should be present, when combined with the moderate to strong instability, to support some storms capable of severe wind gusts.

Arkansas and Vicinity

The most favorable environment across the CONUS on Saturday appears to be from eastern Kansas to Arkansas beneath a belt of stronger mid-level flow where moderate to strong instability may also be in place. This environment would even support supercells. However, storm coverage remains uncertain. Added a small 5% in the Arkansas vicinity where at least isolated storms appear most likely. However, with relatively nebulous forcing, perhaps related to remaining convection from Friday, confidence is low where the strongest storms may occur.

Ohio Valley

A mid-level shortwave trough will amplify across the Great Lakes on Saturday and become negatively tilted toward the end of the period. As this occurs, a surface low will deepen somewhat across southern Ontario with a cold front sweeping across Ohio and northern Kentucky through the day. Despite relatively weak heating across the region due to extensive cloud cover, moderate instability is forecast to develop amid upper 60s dewpoints and cooling temperatures aloft. This, combined with 25 to 30 knots of shear, should be sufficient for multicells and occasional supercells capable of primarily damaging wind gusts.

..Bentley.. 08/21/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

← back to overview

Outlook for Sunday, August 23

Outlook Summary

Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and wind gusts are possible in portions of the Northeast and across parts of southwest and central Montana.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 210731

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL MONTANA AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST

### SUMMARY

Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and wind gusts are possible in portions of the Northeast and across parts of southwest and central Montana.

Southwest into central Montana

A mid-level shortwave trough will move across the Pacific Northwest and into eastern British Columbia. While the parent trough is forecast to deamplify through the period, moderate mid-level flow is forecast to remain across much of Montana. Weak to potentially moderate instability is forecast to develop across southwest into central Montana. The moderate mid-level flow should provide ample shear for storm organization including some supercell potential. Strong heating will support steep low-level lapse rates and some severe wind gust threat with the strongest storms.

Portions of the Northeast

A mid-level trough will become negatively tilted as it pivots from the Great Lakes to the Northeast on Sunday. A broad 1006-1010mb surface low is forecast somewhere in the vicinity of western New York, southeast Ontario and southern Quebec. Storms are forecast by mid-day along a cold front that should extend from New York into central Pennsylvania on Sunday morning and move eastward through the day. The environment ahead of this front is forecast to have moderate to strong shear and relatively weak instability. Forecast soundings show a lower storm top environment due to warmer temperatures aloft. However, despite the weak instability, the expectation for at least some supercell threat, combined with decent instability within the hail growth zone and strong shear may support some large hail and damaging wind gusts Sunday afternoon/evening.

..Bentley.. 08/21/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

← back to overview

Outlook for Monday, August 24

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, August 24	predictability too low
Day 5	Tuesday, August 25	predictability too low
Day 6	Wednesday, August 26	predictability too low
Day 7	Thursday, August 27	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, August 28	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210854 SPC AC 210854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

DISCUSSION

A mid-level trough will move across the Northeast on Monday and the surface front will be mostly offshore, reducing the severe weather threat. As this trough departs, ridging will build across the Rockies. This will eventually set up a pattern featuring individual mid-level shortwave troughs within northwesterly flow from the northern Plains to the Midwest. Some severe weather will likely occur with mid-level shortwave troughs within this flow, but these details likely will not become more clear until the short term.

Model consensus indicates a stronger mid-level shortwave trough traversing the Pacific Northwest on D7/Thursday. This pattern would be favorable for some severe weather threat across Montana, but at this time, it appears moisture will stay farther east. Therefore, no severe weather is anticipated.

..Bentley.. 08/21/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Tuesday, August 25

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, August 24	predictability too low
Day 5	Tuesday, August 25	predictability too low
Day 6	Wednesday, August 26	predictability too low
Day 7	Thursday, August 27	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, August 28	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210854 SPC AC 210854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

DISCUSSION

A mid-level trough will move across the Northeast on Monday and the surface front will be mostly offshore, reducing the severe weather threat. As this trough departs, ridging will build across the Rockies. This will eventually set up a pattern featuring individual mid-level shortwave troughs within northwesterly flow from the northern Plains to the Midwest. Some severe weather will likely occur with mid-level shortwave troughs within this flow, but these details likely will not become more clear until the short term.

Model consensus indicates a stronger mid-level shortwave trough traversing the Pacific Northwest on D7/Thursday. This pattern would be favorable for some severe weather threat across Montana, but at this time, it appears moisture will stay farther east. Therefore, no severe weather is anticipated.

..Bentley.. 08/21/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Wednesday, August 26

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, August 24	predictability too low
Day 5	Tuesday, August 25	predictability too low
Day 6	Wednesday, August 26	predictability too low
Day 7	Thursday, August 27	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, August 28	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210854 SPC AC 210854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

DISCUSSION

A mid-level trough will move across the Northeast on Monday and the surface front will be mostly offshore, reducing the severe weather threat. As this trough departs, ridging will build across the Rockies. This will eventually set up a pattern featuring individual mid-level shortwave troughs within northwesterly flow from the northern Plains to the Midwest. Some severe weather will likely occur with mid-level shortwave troughs within this flow, but these details likely will not become more clear until the short term.

Model consensus indicates a stronger mid-level shortwave trough traversing the Pacific Northwest on D7/Thursday. This pattern would be favorable for some severe weather threat across Montana, but at this time, it appears moisture will stay farther east. Therefore, no severe weather is anticipated.

..Bentley.. 08/21/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Thursday, August 27

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, August 24	predictability too low
Day 5	Tuesday, August 25	predictability too low
Day 6	Wednesday, August 26	predictability too low
Day 7	Thursday, August 27	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, August 28	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210854 SPC AC 210854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

DISCUSSION

A mid-level trough will move across the Northeast on Monday and the surface front will be mostly offshore, reducing the severe weather threat. As this trough departs, ridging will build across the Rockies. This will eventually set up a pattern featuring individual mid-level shortwave troughs within northwesterly flow from the northern Plains to the Midwest. Some severe weather will likely occur with mid-level shortwave troughs within this flow, but these details likely will not become more clear until the short term.

Model consensus indicates a stronger mid-level shortwave trough traversing the Pacific Northwest on D7/Thursday. This pattern would be favorable for some severe weather threat across Montana, but at this time, it appears moisture will stay farther east. Therefore, no severe weather is anticipated.

..Bentley.. 08/21/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Friday, August 28

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, August 24	predictability too low
Day 5	Tuesday, August 25	predictability too low
Day 6	Wednesday, August 26	predictability too low
Day 7	Thursday, August 27	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, August 28	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210854 SPC AC 210854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

DISCUSSION

A mid-level trough will move across the Northeast on Monday and the surface front will be mostly offshore, reducing the severe weather threat. As this trough departs, ridging will build across the Rockies. This will eventually set up a pattern featuring individual mid-level shortwave troughs within northwesterly flow from the northern Plains to the Midwest. Some severe weather will likely occur with mid-level shortwave troughs within this flow, but these details likely will not become more clear until the short term.

Model consensus indicates a stronger mid-level shortwave trough traversing the Pacific Northwest on D7/Thursday. This pattern would be favorable for some severe weather threat across Montana, but at this time, it appears moisture will stay farther east. Therefore, no severe weather is anticipated.

..Bentley.. 08/21/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

National Risk Overview

Friday, August 21: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Saturday, August 22: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Sunday, August 23: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Monday, August 24: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, August 25: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, August 26: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, August 27: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, August 28: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Your Severe Outlook

Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.

Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.

Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.

Severe Weather Outlook Amazon link →

About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.