Severe Weather Outlook

show me my personal outlook →

Hayley here - Do you want to see severe weather in your calendar?

* it's like an add-on for your digital calendar NOT a paper calendar

National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Friday, April 17

Saturday, April 18

Sunday, April 19

Monday, April 20

Tuesday, April 21

Wednesday, April 22

Thursday, April 23

Friday, April 24

Outlook for Friday, April 17

Outlook Summary

Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely this afternoon into tonight across parts of the Upper Midwest southward across the lower Missouri Valley and central/southern Great Plains. Initially this may be accompanied by a risk for large to giant hail and a few strong tornadoes, before severe wind gusts of 60 to 90 mph become the most prominent hazard by this evening.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 10%

wind 45%

hail 45%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 171953

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Valid 172000Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS INTO WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI

### SUMMARY

Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely this afternoon into tonight across parts of the Upper Midwest southward across the lower Missouri Valley and central/southern Great Plains. Initially this may be accompanied by a risk for large to giant hail and a few strong tornadoes, before severe wind gusts of 60 to 90 mph become the most prominent hazard by this evening.

20Z Update

Severe probabilities have been adjusted to account for progression of the cold front this afternoon. The remainder of the forecast is unchanged. See MD 475 for short-term details of evolving tornado risk along the Illinois/Wisconsin border.

..Wendt.. 04/17/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1203 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026/

Synopsis

Recent surface analysis places a low over south-central MN, with a cold front extending southwestward to another low over central KS. A warm front also extends southwestward from the MN low through far southwest MN and far northern IL into central IN. This warm front is demarcated well by the 56 deg F isodrosotherm. Farther south, a dryline extends from the triple point KS low back southwestward through the TX Panhandle and into far southeast NM. A broad, moist warm sector exists to the east of the cold front and dryline, characterized largely by dewpoints in the low to mid 60s.

A well-defined shortwave trough is apparent on satellite imagery, extending from southern Saskatchewan back southwestward into the eastern Great Basin. This wave is forecast to continue eastward, with a attendant increase in the mid-level flow across much of the Plains and Upper/Mid MS Valley. The cold front will surge eastward/southeastward in response to this wave as well, interacting with the warm sector to support numerous strong to severe thunderstorms from parts of the Upper Midwest southward across the lower Missouri Valley into southern Plains.

Upper/Mid MS Valley

Moderate to strong low-level moisture advection is expected across the Upper MS Valley today as the surface low mentioned in the synopsis progresses northeastward, with an attendant northward shift of the warm front as well. The risk across this region may evolve in several phases, beginning with the elevated thunderstorms currently ongoing across northwest WI. This storms will likely continue northeastward, posing a risk for severe hail and isolated damaging gusts. Additional development is possible northwest of this activity along the occluded front, with some hail possible here as well.

Farther south, the northeastward advecting low-level moisture coupled with strong heating and steep lapse rates will result in a strongly unstable airmass along and just south of the warm front by the early afternoon. Storm initiation is anticipated within this open warm sector by early afternoon, forced by a mix of warm-air advection, low-level confluence, and subtly increasing large-scale ascent. This activity should be ahead of the front and initially discrete. The overall parameter space will be characterized by strong to very strong buoyancy, moderate deep-layer vertical shear, and strong low-level helicity. Supercells capable of all hazards are expected, including large to very large (i.e. 3"+ hail), strong to intense tornadoes, and severe wind gusts. Storm interactions are expected to strongly influence the tornado risk, with the initially discrete mode likely becoming messy quickly.

Farther west, other storms are likely to evolve quickly along the front, developing into a band of severe thunderstorms that will push east coincident with the front. Damaging wind gusts will tend to become more prevalent during the evening with linear storm modes. Some tornado risk may continue into the evening as maturing bands of storms yield a threat for bowing segments and embedded mesovortices, before this activity gradually diminishes late as it moves east into IN/Lower MI late.

KS/OK/MO

A very unstable airmass is expected to develop along and ahead of the triple point over south-central KS an associated cold front and dryline. Strong low-level convergence will likely lead to initial storm development near the triple point. This initial activity will be supercellular and capable of very large to giant hail (over 3-3.5" in diameter). Highest coverage of very large hail is expected over from far northwest OK into south-central KS. Strong downdrafts (60 to 80 mph) are possible as well. With a largely boundary-parallel orientation to the deep-layer shear, the tornado risk appears relatively lower. However, given the supercell mode and potential interactions with outflow, a low-probability tornado risk remains. A more north-south configuration to the dryline supports a conditional tornado risk into far northwest TX.

With time, upscale growth and the development of a forward-propagating MCS is anticipated across central and eastern KS. Very strong gusts (80+ mph) are possible with this MCS. Additionally, some QLCS tornado risk will exist within this line as long as it stays ahead of the surging cold front. The front will continue sweeping southeastward, with storms along this boundary yielding a risk for wind/hail.

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

← back to overview

Outlook for Saturday, April 18

Outlook Summary

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and hail will be possible on Saturday across the upper Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. Isolated severe hail is also possible across parts of central Texas.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 15%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 171730

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS

### SUMMARY

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and hail will be possible on Saturday across the upper Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. Isolated severe hail is also possible across parts of central Texas.

Synopsis

An amplified midlevel trough will advance eastward from the upper MS Valley to the Great Lakes/OH Valley on Saturday. At the same time, a cold front extending from lower MI south-southwestward into south-central TX will move east-southeastward across the OH, TN, and lower MS Valley during the day. Remnant showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing along the eastward-moving front at the start of the period, though this lingering/early-morning activity is generally expected to be sub-severe.

Upper OH Valley and Central Appalachians

As the cold front continues eastward into the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians into the afternoon, diurnal heating amid a narrow corridor of upper 50s to lower 60s dewpoints will contribute to marginal surface-based destabilization immediately ahead of the front. This, combined with around 40-50 kt of effective shear oriented oblique to the front, should favor a mix of organized clusters and perhaps a couple supercell structures – posing a risk of scattered damaging wind gusts and isolated severe hail. Additionally, a remnant 30-40 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet will yield modest low-level shear/hodograph curvature, and a tornado or two will be possible with the more organized storms.

Central TX

High-resolution guidance is in relatively good agreement, depicting elevated thunderstorms evolving behind the cold front during the morning and early afternoon. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop the frontal surface and elongated/straight hodographs (around 50 kt of effective shear) could lead to isolated severe hail with any elevated supercells that evolve.

Lower MS and TN Valleys

A couple strong storms will also be possible immediately ahead of the front as it impinges on the lower MS and TN Valleys during the afternoon, given around 40 kt of deep-layer shear and a weakly unstable air mass. However, displacement from the deep-layer forcing for ascent accompanying the trough, and skinny CAPE profiles, limits confidence in the severe risk here – precluding probabilities at this time.

..Weinman.. 04/17/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

← back to overview

Outlook for Sunday, April 19

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 171925

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

Discussion

An amplified large-scale trough will move eastward from the Great Lakes to the Northeast on Sunday, while a related cold front moves off the Eastern Seaboard. Despite poor deep-layer lapse rates, a narrow corridor of diurnal heating amid lower/middle 60s dewpoints (higher over the FL Peninsula) ahead of the front should support isolated thunderstorms from the coastal Carolinas southward across parts of the FL Peninsula. Weak/narrow buoyancy profiles will limit thunderstorm intensity and the severe risk.

..Weinman.. 04/17/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

← back to overview

Outlook for Monday, April 20

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, April 20	potential too low
Day 5	Tuesday, April 21	potential too low
Day 6	Wednesday, April 22	predictability too low
Day 7	Thursday, April 23	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, April 24	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170741 SPC AC 170741

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

A dry, continental airmass will persist across most of the CONUS for the first part of next week. Severe weather chances will start to increase by the middle of the week and into the later part of the week. Forecast guidance consistently shows mid 60s F dewpoints across the Plains and into the Midwest. However, aloft the pattern remains quite uncertain. The ECMWF and the GEFS and EPS all show a developing large-scale trough centered across the western CONUS with multiple shortwave troughs which could result in severe weather Day6/Wed to Day 8/Fri. However, the 00Z GFS and the EC-AIFS show a consolidated mid-level trough which could result in a much more substantial severe weather event across the central/southern Plains. At this time, uncertainty is too high for specific risk areas, but Day6/Wed to Day 8/Fri will likely feature multiple days of severe weather across portions of the central/southern Plains.

..Bentley.. 04/17/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Tuesday, April 21

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, April 20	potential too low
Day 5	Tuesday, April 21	potential too low
Day 6	Wednesday, April 22	predictability too low
Day 7	Thursday, April 23	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, April 24	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170741 SPC AC 170741

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

A dry, continental airmass will persist across most of the CONUS for the first part of next week. Severe weather chances will start to increase by the middle of the week and into the later part of the week. Forecast guidance consistently shows mid 60s F dewpoints across the Plains and into the Midwest. However, aloft the pattern remains quite uncertain. The ECMWF and the GEFS and EPS all show a developing large-scale trough centered across the western CONUS with multiple shortwave troughs which could result in severe weather Day6/Wed to Day 8/Fri. However, the 00Z GFS and the EC-AIFS show a consolidated mid-level trough which could result in a much more substantial severe weather event across the central/southern Plains. At this time, uncertainty is too high for specific risk areas, but Day6/Wed to Day 8/Fri will likely feature multiple days of severe weather across portions of the central/southern Plains.

..Bentley.. 04/17/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Wednesday, April 22

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, April 20	potential too low
Day 5	Tuesday, April 21	potential too low
Day 6	Wednesday, April 22	predictability too low
Day 7	Thursday, April 23	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, April 24	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170741 SPC AC 170741

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

A dry, continental airmass will persist across most of the CONUS for the first part of next week. Severe weather chances will start to increase by the middle of the week and into the later part of the week. Forecast guidance consistently shows mid 60s F dewpoints across the Plains and into the Midwest. However, aloft the pattern remains quite uncertain. The ECMWF and the GEFS and EPS all show a developing large-scale trough centered across the western CONUS with multiple shortwave troughs which could result in severe weather Day6/Wed to Day 8/Fri. However, the 00Z GFS and the EC-AIFS show a consolidated mid-level trough which could result in a much more substantial severe weather event across the central/southern Plains. At this time, uncertainty is too high for specific risk areas, but Day6/Wed to Day 8/Fri will likely feature multiple days of severe weather across portions of the central/southern Plains.

..Bentley.. 04/17/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Thursday, April 23

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, April 20	potential too low
Day 5	Tuesday, April 21	potential too low
Day 6	Wednesday, April 22	predictability too low
Day 7	Thursday, April 23	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, April 24	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170741 SPC AC 170741

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

A dry, continental airmass will persist across most of the CONUS for the first part of next week. Severe weather chances will start to increase by the middle of the week and into the later part of the week. Forecast guidance consistently shows mid 60s F dewpoints across the Plains and into the Midwest. However, aloft the pattern remains quite uncertain. The ECMWF and the GEFS and EPS all show a developing large-scale trough centered across the western CONUS with multiple shortwave troughs which could result in severe weather Day6/Wed to Day 8/Fri. However, the 00Z GFS and the EC-AIFS show a consolidated mid-level trough which could result in a much more substantial severe weather event across the central/southern Plains. At this time, uncertainty is too high for specific risk areas, but Day6/Wed to Day 8/Fri will likely feature multiple days of severe weather across portions of the central/southern Plains.

..Bentley.. 04/17/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Friday, April 24

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, April 20	potential too low
Day 5	Tuesday, April 21	potential too low
Day 6	Wednesday, April 22	predictability too low
Day 7	Thursday, April 23	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, April 24	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170741 SPC AC 170741

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

A dry, continental airmass will persist across most of the CONUS for the first part of next week. Severe weather chances will start to increase by the middle of the week and into the later part of the week. Forecast guidance consistently shows mid 60s F dewpoints across the Plains and into the Midwest. However, aloft the pattern remains quite uncertain. The ECMWF and the GEFS and EPS all show a developing large-scale trough centered across the western CONUS with multiple shortwave troughs which could result in severe weather Day6/Wed to Day 8/Fri. However, the 00Z GFS and the EC-AIFS show a consolidated mid-level trough which could result in a much more substantial severe weather event across the central/southern Plains. At this time, uncertainty is too high for specific risk areas, but Day6/Wed to Day 8/Fri will likely feature multiple days of severe weather across portions of the central/southern Plains.

..Bentley.. 04/17/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

National Risk Overview

Friday, April 17: TORNADO: 10%; HAIL: 45%; WIND: 45%
Saturday, April 18: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Sunday, April 19: ANY SEVERE: low
Monday, April 20: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, April 21: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, April 22: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, April 23: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, April 24: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Your Severe Outlook

Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.

Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.

Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.

Severe Weather Outlook Amazon link →

About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.