Severe Weather Outlook

show me my personal outlook →

Hayley here - Do you like ~~lofi music~~ whatever music Hayley put on and terrifyingly loud computer voices? Then stop by the 24/7 ish severe weather live stream!

* stats delayed and were probably not accurate to begin with

National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Friday, February 20

Saturday, February 21

Sunday, February 22

Monday, February 23

Tuesday, February 24

Wednesday, February 25

Thursday, February 26

Friday, February 27

Outlook for Friday, February 20

Outlook Summary

Widely-scattered thunderstorms may occur today over parts of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic. Severe storms are not forecast.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 200545

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

CORRECTED FOR GENERAL THUNDERSTORM LINES

SUMMARY

Widely-scattered thunderstorms may occur today over parts of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic. Severe storms are not forecast.

Synopsis/Discussion

A shortwave trough will move quickly across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast, with a surface low developing off the coastal Mid Atlantic. Over land, a cold front will push east across VA and the Carolinas, with rapid drying from the west. Despite this, a few showers/thunderstorms will be possible prior to the front moving offshore. Warm profiles aloft suggest weak storms, but strong westerlies just off the surface could support gusty winds.

To the south, the tail end of this front will stall in east-west fashion across LA and southern MS/AL/GA. This boundary will move northward overnight across parts of MS/AL/GA, with increasing southwest flow at 850 mb ahead of another wave moving across the southern Plains. Meanwhile, height tendencies aloft will be neutral. While showers and a few thunderstorms may occur in this warm advection regime late in the day and overnight, it appears warm profiles aloft should reduce hail potential despite strong deep-layer shear.

..Jewell/Halbert.. 02/20/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

← back to overview

Outlook for Saturday, February 21

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms are possible across parts of the eastern Gulf and south Atlantic coast states Saturday, accompanied by at least some risk for damaging wind gusts.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 5%

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 200628

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE EAST INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms are possible across parts of the eastern Gulf and south Atlantic coast states Saturday, accompanied by at least some risk for damaging wind gusts.

Discussion

Strong west/southwest mid-level flow will be in place across the southern and eastern United States at the start of the forecast period. A subtle southern stream shortwave trough will amplify on Saturday as it interacts with this stronger mid-level flow and approaching northern stream trough.

A remnant frontal boundary will be stretched from southern North Carolina southwestward toward southeast Texas. A surface low will develop along this frontal boundary during the day on Saturday in response to the amplifying mid-level trough before quickly out to sea by Sunday morning.

Ongoing thunderstorms at the start of the forecast period should persist through the morning, as the mid-level wave amplifies and surface low develops. Along and south of the front, modest diurnal heating will result in an environment with up to 500 to perhaps 1000 J/kg of most unstable CAPE. Long, straight hodographs largely parallel to the frontal zone should favor small linear/bowing segments over supercells, despite the strong deep-layer shear present. A marginal threat for damaging wind gusts will accompany any sustained thunderstorm segment. A modest low-level jet during the morning hours may provide enough low-level streamwise vorticity to support a brief tornado or two. This threat should diminish during the afternoon as the low-level jet veers and weakens.

..Marsh.. 02/20/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

← back to overview

Outlook for Sunday, February 22

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula during the day on Sunday. A couple of lightning strikes will also be possible across the Outer Banks of North Carolina.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 200747

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula during the day on Sunday. A couple of lightning strikes will also be possible across the Outer Banks of North Carolina.

Discussion

The mid-level pattern will undergo amplification on Sunday as a strong mid-level low/trough dives southeast from the mid-Mississippi Valley to off the North Carolina coast and takes on a neutral to negative tilt. A surface low off the Carolina coast will deepen rapidly in response to the intensifying large-scale ascent. Northerly winds on the west side of the deepening surface low will drive a surface cold front south through the Florida Peninsula, potentially clearing south Florida by Monday morning. Modest instability (~500 J/kg) across the central peninsula may support isolated thunderstorms on Sunday, although warm mid-level temperatures should temper the overall thunderstorm potential/coverage.

Elsewhere, an isolated lightning strike or two will be possible across the Outer Banks of North Carolina as the surface low rapidly deepens and an intensifying warm conveyor belt results in elevated instability developing to the west/northwest of the surface low.

Additionally, a few lightning strikes may occur along and off the coast of the Pacific Northwest as the next upper-trough approaches. However, coverage should remain sparse enough to preclude the need for delineation.

..Marsh.. 02/20/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

← back to overview

Outlook for Monday, February 23

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, February 23	potential too low
Day 5	Tuesday, February 24	potential too low
Day 6	Wednesday, February 25	potential too low
Day 7	Thursday, February 26	potential too low
Day 8	Friday, February 27	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200913 SPC AC 200913

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0313 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

DISCUSSION

The forecast period will begin with a highly amplified upper-air pattern with a ridge over the Rockies and a deep trough over the eastern US. By the middle of the next week, this mid-level flow regime will transition to one characterized as broadly northwest flow from the Pacific Northwest toward the Southeast United States. This flow regime will help drive a mid-level trough/surface cold front southeast through the Plains toward the end of next week. However, limited moisture return ahead of this trough/cold front should temper any severe potential.

The front is expected to push south into at least the northern Gulf. This resulting cold/dry air intrusion into the northern Gulf will limit the potential for appreciable moisture return and subsequent thunderstorm/severe thunderstorm potential through the rest of the forecast period.

..Marsh.. 02/20/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Tuesday, February 24

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, February 23	potential too low
Day 5	Tuesday, February 24	potential too low
Day 6	Wednesday, February 25	potential too low
Day 7	Thursday, February 26	potential too low
Day 8	Friday, February 27	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200913 SPC AC 200913

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0313 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

DISCUSSION

The forecast period will begin with a highly amplified upper-air pattern with a ridge over the Rockies and a deep trough over the eastern US. By the middle of the next week, this mid-level flow regime will transition to one characterized as broadly northwest flow from the Pacific Northwest toward the Southeast United States. This flow regime will help drive a mid-level trough/surface cold front southeast through the Plains toward the end of next week. However, limited moisture return ahead of this trough/cold front should temper any severe potential.

The front is expected to push south into at least the northern Gulf. This resulting cold/dry air intrusion into the northern Gulf will limit the potential for appreciable moisture return and subsequent thunderstorm/severe thunderstorm potential through the rest of the forecast period.

..Marsh.. 02/20/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Wednesday, February 25

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, February 23	potential too low
Day 5	Tuesday, February 24	potential too low
Day 6	Wednesday, February 25	potential too low
Day 7	Thursday, February 26	potential too low
Day 8	Friday, February 27	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200913 SPC AC 200913

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0313 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

DISCUSSION

The forecast period will begin with a highly amplified upper-air pattern with a ridge over the Rockies and a deep trough over the eastern US. By the middle of the next week, this mid-level flow regime will transition to one characterized as broadly northwest flow from the Pacific Northwest toward the Southeast United States. This flow regime will help drive a mid-level trough/surface cold front southeast through the Plains toward the end of next week. However, limited moisture return ahead of this trough/cold front should temper any severe potential.

The front is expected to push south into at least the northern Gulf. This resulting cold/dry air intrusion into the northern Gulf will limit the potential for appreciable moisture return and subsequent thunderstorm/severe thunderstorm potential through the rest of the forecast period.

..Marsh.. 02/20/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Thursday, February 26

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, February 23	potential too low
Day 5	Tuesday, February 24	potential too low
Day 6	Wednesday, February 25	potential too low
Day 7	Thursday, February 26	potential too low
Day 8	Friday, February 27	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200913 SPC AC 200913

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0313 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

DISCUSSION

The forecast period will begin with a highly amplified upper-air pattern with a ridge over the Rockies and a deep trough over the eastern US. By the middle of the next week, this mid-level flow regime will transition to one characterized as broadly northwest flow from the Pacific Northwest toward the Southeast United States. This flow regime will help drive a mid-level trough/surface cold front southeast through the Plains toward the end of next week. However, limited moisture return ahead of this trough/cold front should temper any severe potential.

The front is expected to push south into at least the northern Gulf. This resulting cold/dry air intrusion into the northern Gulf will limit the potential for appreciable moisture return and subsequent thunderstorm/severe thunderstorm potential through the rest of the forecast period.

..Marsh.. 02/20/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Friday, February 27

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, February 23	potential too low
Day 5	Tuesday, February 24	potential too low
Day 6	Wednesday, February 25	potential too low
Day 7	Thursday, February 26	potential too low
Day 8	Friday, February 27	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200913 SPC AC 200913

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0313 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

DISCUSSION

The forecast period will begin with a highly amplified upper-air pattern with a ridge over the Rockies and a deep trough over the eastern US. By the middle of the next week, this mid-level flow regime will transition to one characterized as broadly northwest flow from the Pacific Northwest toward the Southeast United States. This flow regime will help drive a mid-level trough/surface cold front southeast through the Plains toward the end of next week. However, limited moisture return ahead of this trough/cold front should temper any severe potential.

The front is expected to push south into at least the northern Gulf. This resulting cold/dry air intrusion into the northern Gulf will limit the potential for appreciable moisture return and subsequent thunderstorm/severe thunderstorm potential through the rest of the forecast period.

..Marsh.. 02/20/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

National Risk Overview

Friday, February 20: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Saturday, February 21: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: low; WIND: 5%
Sunday, February 22: ANY SEVERE: low
Monday, February 23: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, February 24: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, February 25: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, February 26: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, February 27: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Your Severe Outlook

Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.

Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.

Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.

Severe Weather Outlook Amazon link →

About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.