Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, June 29
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms capable of an intense swath of severe wind gusts are likely across northeast South Dakota into northwest Minnesota through midday. Later today, severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Large hail and severe winds are the primary concerns, though a couple of tornadoes may also occur.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 30%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 291222
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0722 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
Valid 291300Z - 301200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms capable of an intense swath of severe wind gusts are likely across northeast South Dakota into northwest Minnesota through midday. Later today, severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Large hail and severe winds are the primary concerns, though a couple of tornadoes may also occur.
Dakotas/Mid-Missouri Valley/Upper Midwest
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough over the central Rockies. This upper disturbance will acquire a negative tilt and move into the central Dakotas by early evening. A surface low over the north-central Plains will develop northward into eastern ND by 00z as a warm front advances northward across much of MN.
Through midday, an intense supercell over northeast SD will continue to move quickly northeastward through parts of the eastern Dakotas this morning and into northwest MN. Recent CAM model guidance (i.e., time-lagged HRRR) has been remarkably consistent in showing the evolution of the SD thunderstorm complex into northern MN today. Have upgraded to an Enhanced Risk downstream of this extremely intense supercell evolving into a bow within a focused mesoscale corridor. Please refer to MCD #1376 for short-term forecast details.
Later this afternoon, a very moist airmass will become very unstable over parts of the Upper Midwest. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast by late afternoon as large-scale ascent associated with the approaching upper wave overspreads the region. Ample deep-layer shear coupled with the large buoyancy will favor supercells. Large to very large hail, a couple of tornadoes, and severe gusts will be possible with this surface-based activity. Towards the early evening, additional storms are likely to develop farther east over MN with a hail/wind threat likely persisting through the evening.
Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas
Isolated high-based thunderstorms are possible near the dryline. Moderate instability is expected within this region with generally weak deep layer shear. Strong evaporatively cooled downdrafts will be capable of severe gusts with the more intense cores.
..Smith/Jewell.. 06/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Tuesday, June 30
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms will be possible from parts of the central High Plains into the Upper Midwest, and across parts of the Northeast on Tuesday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 290606
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
Valid 301200Z - 011200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms will be possible from parts of the central High Plains into the Upper Midwest, and across parts of the Northeast on Tuesday.
Synopsis
An upper low will be present in the Canadian Prairies with a belt of stronger mid-level flow extending into the Upper Midwest. The amplified upper ridge in the Midwest/East will be somewhat suppressed as a result. A stalled surface boundary will be present from the central High Plains into the Upper Midwest. Moderate to strong mid-level northwesterlies will be present across the Northeast with possible MCVs/shortwaves moving into the region.
Mid-Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest
Convection that occurs in Minnesota overnight Monday into early Tuesday is expected to weaken as it moves eastward. Given the weakening and veering low-level jet, it does not appear this activity will have much of an impact on the environment in northern Wisconsin into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. A stalled surface boundary will be located from northern Nebraska into Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Very rich moisture (mid/upper 70s F dewpoints) will exist in the warm sector. With mid-level lapse rates of 7.5-8 C/km, strong to extreme buoyancy will develop by the afternoon. With the main upper low in the Canadian Prairie, large-scale ascent will be subtle/nebulous. That said, convective temperatures should be reached at least locally with additional lift expected from lake breeze boundaries. Most models, including both global/regional models and CAMs, suggest development is probable from parts of northern Wisconsin into the Upper Peninsula. Effective shear of 40-50 kt will promote some storm organization. However, magnitude of buoyancy along with modest low-level flow will likely result in storms becoming outflow dominant. A targeted Slight Risk has been added for this potential. Damaging winds are the most likely hazard with this activity, but isolated large hail could also occur.
Farther southwest into southern Minnesota/Iowa/Nebraska/South Dakota, storm coverage is much less certain. There could be an increase in thunderstorm activity as the low-level jet increases during the evening. Should this occur, damaging winds and perhaps isolated large hail would be possible. Shear will be weaker in these areas and the severe threat will likely remain marginal/isolated.
Northeast
Questions remain as to the timing of MCV/convection moving out of Canada. Given the potential for early precipitation to occur and limit surface-based instability, the Marginal Risk has been maintained for this outlook. Nevertheless, the environment will be favorable for strong to severe storms. Effective shear is expected to be around 50 kt. Damaging winds and large hail are likely the main risks; however, if storm mode is more cellular, a greater tornado risk could also be present. Trends in guidance will need to be monitored.
Colorado/Kansas/southwest Nebraska
A modest lee trough will promote moisture advection into the central High Plains. A subtle shortwave trough moving through the central Rockies may aid in storm development. The timing of storm development is not certain, but most guidance would suggest this occurs at or after 00Z. Steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate deep-layer shear will promote organized storms that will be capable of large hail (isolated to around 2 in.) and severe winds. Low-level shear will be enhanced near the surface trough/low, but concerns over low-level thermodynamics limit confidence in a tornado threat.
..Wendt.. 06/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Wednesday, July 1
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe storms will again be possible from the central Plains into the Upper Midwest as well the Northeast on Wednesday. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main concerns.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 290734
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST…AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe storms will again be possible from the central Plains into the Upper Midwest as well the Northeast on Wednesday. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main concerns.
Synopsis
The upper-level pattern across the CONUS will not significantly change from Tuesday into Wednesday. A broad trough in the West will maintain modest to moderate mid-level flow across the Plains into the Upper Midwest. Some stronger mid-level flow is possible in the Upper Great Lakes vicinity due to the main synoptic trough displaced to the north in Canada. Moderate northwesterly winds aloft will persist in the Northeast as well. Strong to extreme buoyancy will develop during the afternoon from the Upper Midwest into the Northeast with a very moist airmass beneath the upper ridge.
Central Plains into the Upper Midwest
A stalled surface boundary will may eventually make modest northward progress as a weak surface trough develops in the central/northern Plains. Models suggest convection will be ongoing early in the morning in the Nebraska/South Dakota vicinity. Given the strong low-level jet expected, it is not clear if this convection will weaken during the morning or continue eastward into an increasingly unstable airmass. Depending on how that early activity evolves, there is potential for another round of convection to develop along the boundary in the Upper Mississippi Valley. This may be aided by a subtle shortwave trough moving northeast. In either case, MCS development is possible with time. Damaging winds and isolated large hail are possible, though there may end up being a corridor of greater wind damage potential should an MCS develop. Greater severe probabilities may be needed as confidence increases.
Northeast
Forcing for ascent will be more nebulous on Wednesday. Even so, the very unstable environment will promote a risk of strong/damaging downburst winds as well as isolated large hail. Given the uncertainty in storm coverage, only low severe probabilities have been added.
..Wendt.. 06/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Thursday, July 2
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, July 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, July 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, July 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, July 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, July 6 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290859 SPC AC 290859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
The broad trough in the West and ridge in the East will persist through the remainder of the week. A moist airmass across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies will support repeated days of convective activity. Large-scale forcing will remain weak, but shortwave troughs emanating from the western trough will promote development within the Plains and the Upper Midwest where a stalled surface boundary will be positioned. Both Thursday and Friday show potential for MCS development from Nebraska into the Dakotas. Friday will likely have a more prominent shortwave trough as a lifting mechanism. Where this potential severe weather will be focused is not certain given the expected convection that will occur each day prior. For Saturday, some models show the shortwave trough moving into the Upper Midwest where another round of convection may occur. Severe probabilities are certainly possible in the coming days as confidence continues to increase.
Another area to watch this week will be the Northeast. Here, stronger northwesterly flow at mid levels will continue into part of the weekend. Depending on how the shortwave trough evolves in the Upper Midwest, this feature may eventually move into the Northeast and promote thunderstorm development late this weekend into next week. Predictability remains too low for highlights, however.
..Wendt.. 06/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, July 3
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, July 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, July 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, July 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, July 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, July 6 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290859 SPC AC 290859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
The broad trough in the West and ridge in the East will persist through the remainder of the week. A moist airmass across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies will support repeated days of convective activity. Large-scale forcing will remain weak, but shortwave troughs emanating from the western trough will promote development within the Plains and the Upper Midwest where a stalled surface boundary will be positioned. Both Thursday and Friday show potential for MCS development from Nebraska into the Dakotas. Friday will likely have a more prominent shortwave trough as a lifting mechanism. Where this potential severe weather will be focused is not certain given the expected convection that will occur each day prior. For Saturday, some models show the shortwave trough moving into the Upper Midwest where another round of convection may occur. Severe probabilities are certainly possible in the coming days as confidence continues to increase.
Another area to watch this week will be the Northeast. Here, stronger northwesterly flow at mid levels will continue into part of the weekend. Depending on how the shortwave trough evolves in the Upper Midwest, this feature may eventually move into the Northeast and promote thunderstorm development late this weekend into next week. Predictability remains too low for highlights, however.
..Wendt.. 06/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, July 4
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, July 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, July 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, July 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, July 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, July 6 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290859 SPC AC 290859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
The broad trough in the West and ridge in the East will persist through the remainder of the week. A moist airmass across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies will support repeated days of convective activity. Large-scale forcing will remain weak, but shortwave troughs emanating from the western trough will promote development within the Plains and the Upper Midwest where a stalled surface boundary will be positioned. Both Thursday and Friday show potential for MCS development from Nebraska into the Dakotas. Friday will likely have a more prominent shortwave trough as a lifting mechanism. Where this potential severe weather will be focused is not certain given the expected convection that will occur each day prior. For Saturday, some models show the shortwave trough moving into the Upper Midwest where another round of convection may occur. Severe probabilities are certainly possible in the coming days as confidence continues to increase.
Another area to watch this week will be the Northeast. Here, stronger northwesterly flow at mid levels will continue into part of the weekend. Depending on how the shortwave trough evolves in the Upper Midwest, this feature may eventually move into the Northeast and promote thunderstorm development late this weekend into next week. Predictability remains too low for highlights, however.
..Wendt.. 06/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, July 5
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, July 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, July 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, July 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, July 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, July 6 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290859 SPC AC 290859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
The broad trough in the West and ridge in the East will persist through the remainder of the week. A moist airmass across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies will support repeated days of convective activity. Large-scale forcing will remain weak, but shortwave troughs emanating from the western trough will promote development within the Plains and the Upper Midwest where a stalled surface boundary will be positioned. Both Thursday and Friday show potential for MCS development from Nebraska into the Dakotas. Friday will likely have a more prominent shortwave trough as a lifting mechanism. Where this potential severe weather will be focused is not certain given the expected convection that will occur each day prior. For Saturday, some models show the shortwave trough moving into the Upper Midwest where another round of convection may occur. Severe probabilities are certainly possible in the coming days as confidence continues to increase.
Another area to watch this week will be the Northeast. Here, stronger northwesterly flow at mid levels will continue into part of the weekend. Depending on how the shortwave trough evolves in the Upper Midwest, this feature may eventually move into the Northeast and promote thunderstorm development late this weekend into next week. Predictability remains too low for highlights, however.
..Wendt.. 06/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, July 6
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, July 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, July 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, July 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, July 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, July 6 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290859 SPC AC 290859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
The broad trough in the West and ridge in the East will persist through the remainder of the week. A moist airmass across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies will support repeated days of convective activity. Large-scale forcing will remain weak, but shortwave troughs emanating from the western trough will promote development within the Plains and the Upper Midwest where a stalled surface boundary will be positioned. Both Thursday and Friday show potential for MCS development from Nebraska into the Dakotas. Friday will likely have a more prominent shortwave trough as a lifting mechanism. Where this potential severe weather will be focused is not certain given the expected convection that will occur each day prior. For Saturday, some models show the shortwave trough moving into the Upper Midwest where another round of convection may occur. Severe probabilities are certainly possible in the coming days as confidence continues to increase.
Another area to watch this week will be the Northeast. Here, stronger northwesterly flow at mid levels will continue into part of the weekend. Depending on how the shortwave trough evolves in the Upper Midwest, this feature may eventually move into the Northeast and promote thunderstorm development late this weekend into next week. Predictability remains too low for highlights, however.
..Wendt.. 06/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, June 29
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 30%
- Tuesday, June 30
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Wednesday, July 1
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Thursday, July 2
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, July 3
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, July 4
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, July 5
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, July 6
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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