Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, January 10
Outlook Summary
A few severe thunderstorms are forecast across the central Gulf Coast and Southeast.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 100531
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CST Fri Jan 09 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF STATES AND SOUTHEAST
### SUMMARY
A few severe thunderstorms are forecast across the central Gulf Coast and Southeast.
Central Gulf Coast/Southeast
Split stream currently noted over the CONUS will gradually evolve into a deep long-wave trough over the eastern U.S. by the end of the period. Latest water-vapor imagery supports this with a pronounced short-wave trough digging southeast into the upper OH Valley, and a less amplified short wave ejecting northeast toward the lower OH Valley. Strong large-scale height falls will spread across the upper Midwest/OH Valley region during the day, but much weaker falls/forcing will be noted across low latitudes.
Late this evening, modified Gulf air mass had returned to much of the lower MS Valley where upper 60s-lower 70s dew points are observed south of the synoptic warm front. Considerable amount of convection has been noted along/north of this boundary and this should prevent appreciable air mass recovery across the northern Gulf states through the period. Over the last few hours, back edge of the convection along the cold front has gradually increased in intensity across southeast TX. This front will advance east into MS by the start of the period, then shift across AL/northwestern GA by early evening as the weak surface low lifts into the middle Atlantic.
One area of concern is the amount of convection currently observed across the northern Gulf states. This may suppress the northern extent of severe potential a bit more south than currently reflected in this forecast. If buoyancy can not return to this region then an adjustment may be warranted at 13z. Otherwise, strong shear and seasonally moist boundary layer suggest a risk for tornadoes with any supercells that develop across this region. The primary concern for wind/tornadoes will be through early afternoon, after which the LLJ will shift well northeast of this area and forcing/low-level shear will weaken.
..Darrow/Lyons.. 01/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Sunday, January 11
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Sunday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 091911
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Fri Jan 09 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Sunday.
Discussion
An amplified midlevel trough will advance eastward across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic through the period. Strong forcing for ascent and steepening deep-layer lapse rates preceding the trough could result in an isolated lightning flash with low-topped convection overspreading the Mid-Atlantic. However, low confidence in this scenario and expected limited coverage precludes a TSTM area at this time. Upstream, an expansive cool/dry air mass will limit thunderstorm potential across the CONUS.
..Weinman.. 01/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Monday, January 12
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, January 12 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, January 13 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, January 14 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, January 15 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, January 16 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090943 SPC AC 090943
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Mid-level northwesterly flow is forecast to become established across the central U.S. on Monday. This appears likely to persist into mid-week as a large-scale trough develops in the Mississippi Valley. The pattern will help to usher cold and dry air southward into the Great Plains and Southeast, which will limit moisture return. From Thursday into Friday, the trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., reinforcing northwesterly mid-level flow over much of the nation. As a result, a cold and dry airmass is expected to remain over the continental U.S, minimizing the potential for thunderstorm development.
..Broyles.. 01/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, January 13
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, January 12 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, January 13 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, January 14 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, January 15 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, January 16 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090943 SPC AC 090943
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Mid-level northwesterly flow is forecast to become established across the central U.S. on Monday. This appears likely to persist into mid-week as a large-scale trough develops in the Mississippi Valley. The pattern will help to usher cold and dry air southward into the Great Plains and Southeast, which will limit moisture return. From Thursday into Friday, the trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., reinforcing northwesterly mid-level flow over much of the nation. As a result, a cold and dry airmass is expected to remain over the continental U.S, minimizing the potential for thunderstorm development.
..Broyles.. 01/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, January 14
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, January 12 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, January 13 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, January 14 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, January 15 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, January 16 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090943 SPC AC 090943
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Mid-level northwesterly flow is forecast to become established across the central U.S. on Monday. This appears likely to persist into mid-week as a large-scale trough develops in the Mississippi Valley. The pattern will help to usher cold and dry air southward into the Great Plains and Southeast, which will limit moisture return. From Thursday into Friday, the trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., reinforcing northwesterly mid-level flow over much of the nation. As a result, a cold and dry airmass is expected to remain over the continental U.S, minimizing the potential for thunderstorm development.
..Broyles.. 01/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, January 15
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, January 12 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, January 13 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, January 14 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, January 15 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, January 16 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090943 SPC AC 090943
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Mid-level northwesterly flow is forecast to become established across the central U.S. on Monday. This appears likely to persist into mid-week as a large-scale trough develops in the Mississippi Valley. The pattern will help to usher cold and dry air southward into the Great Plains and Southeast, which will limit moisture return. From Thursday into Friday, the trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., reinforcing northwesterly mid-level flow over much of the nation. As a result, a cold and dry airmass is expected to remain over the continental U.S, minimizing the potential for thunderstorm development.
..Broyles.. 01/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, January 16
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, January 12 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, January 13 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, January 14 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, January 15 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, January 16 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090943 SPC AC 090943
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Mid-level northwesterly flow is forecast to become established across the central U.S. on Monday. This appears likely to persist into mid-week as a large-scale trough develops in the Mississippi Valley. The pattern will help to usher cold and dry air southward into the Great Plains and Southeast, which will limit moisture return. From Thursday into Friday, the trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., reinforcing northwesterly mid-level flow over much of the nation. As a result, a cold and dry airmass is expected to remain over the continental U.S, minimizing the potential for thunderstorm development.
..Broyles.. 01/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, January 10
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 15%
- Sunday, January 11
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Monday, January 12
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, January 13
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, January 14
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, January 15
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, January 16
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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