Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, July 22
Outlook Summary
Isolated to widely scattered storms remain possible across the Carolinas and southern Mid-Atlantic tonight, with damaging winds being the primary concern. Isolated strong to severe wind gusts remain possible in the central High Plains, Middle Texas Coast, and central Oregon, where isolated hail will also be possible.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 230100
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026
Valid 230100Z - 231200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC…MIDDLE TEXAS COAST…THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS…AND CENTRAL OREGON
### SUMMARY
Isolated to widely scattered storms remain possible across the Carolinas and southern Mid-Atlantic tonight, with damaging winds being the primary concern. Isolated strong to severe wind gusts remain possible in the central High Plains, Middle Texas Coast, and central Oregon, where isolated hail will also be possible.
Mid-Atlantic
Disorganized/weak thunderstorms are ongoing within a pre-frontal confluence zone extending from southeastern VA into western/central NC. Over the next several hours, a southwesterly low-level jet will strengthen to around 30 kt in advance of an approaching cold front. Increasing convergence/low-level ascent and a warm/moist PBL (as sampled by the MHX 00Z sounding) may support a modest uptick in thunderstorm strength over the next several hours. Around 30 kt of effective shear could promote loosely organized clusters, with the primary concern being locally damaging wind gusts.
Middle Texas Coast
An organized cluster of storms with a history of producing severe wind gusts is tracking southwestward along the Middle TX Coast. The main severe risk will be associated with this activity as it continues southwestward over the next few hours, given a very moist/diurnally destabilized downstream air mass (lower 90s temperatures amid lower 80s dewpoints) and around 30 kt of northeasterly deep-layer shear (per the HGX VWP).
Central High Plains
In northeast CO, thunderstorm clusters are evolving east-northeastward into a plume of increasingly rich PBL moisture (upper 50s to lower 60s dewpoints) and a belt of modestly enhanced low/deep-layer shear along the northeastern periphery of a large-scale ridge. This environment will continue to promote loosely organized clusters capable of producing severe wind gusts. For more details, see MCD #1713.
Central Oregon
A few loosely organized cells and clusters will continue tracking northward across parts of central OR, where a belt of 30-kt midlevel flow and a weakly unstable air mass will support isolated severe wind gusts and hail with the stronger cores.
..Weinman.. 07/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Thursday, July 23
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind will be possible the central High Plains on Thursday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 221720
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind will be possible the central High Plains on Thursday.
Synopsis
A weak mid-level shortwave trough will move through the flow across the central High Plains within the region between the amplified western ridge and eastern trough Thursday afternoon. At the surface, weak low pressure will develop across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles with a stationary front/boundary in place from eastern Colorado into the southern Plains. Thunderstorm development is likely across the Front Range in Colorado, with an increase in coverage spreading into the lower plains with the influence of the passing shortwave.
Central High Plains
Southerly to southeasterly flow across the southern/central High Plains will bring moisture northward into portions of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles and into western Kansas/eastern Colorado. This in combination with steep mid-level lapse rates and heating will yield a moderately unstable air mass from eastern Colorado into western Kansas by the afternoon. Initially, storms are expected to develop along the Front Range before moving into the lower plains and western Kansas by the evening. Shear profiles across Colorado will be fairly weak tempering severe potential. Nonetheless, deeply mixed profiles may support some strong to severe outflow gusts. As the shortwave shifts southward through the period, mid-level flow will increase across western Kansas with resulting modest deep layer shear increase. As storms/clusters move east through the late afternoon/evening an organized cluster or two will have the potential to produce damaging wind.
..Thornton.. 07/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Friday, July 24
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday across portions of the Dakotas into northern Minnesota.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 221924
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday across portions of the Dakotas into northern Minnesota.
Discussion
A trough will move southeastward across the Canadian Prairies toward the Great Lakes, with enhanced mid-level flow overspreading the Dakotas into the Upper Midwest. A surface low will move across northern Manitoba into Quebec as a trailing cold front moves across the northern Plains. Dew points in the mid 60s to 70s will be common ahead of the front across the eastern Dakotas into northern Minnesota. A plume of steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread the region from the north and west, with moderate instability expected by the afternoon. Thunderstorms should develop along the cold front, spreading east through the afternoon and evening. Guidance suggests that MLCIN may hold across much of the region ahead of the front, which would support elevated storms struggling to become surface based. Strong deep layer shear would support supercells, capable of large hail. Should a supercell be able to root at the surface, damaging wind and tornado potential would increase. Should trends favor this outcome, higher probabilities may be needed with subsequent outlooks.
..Thornton.. 07/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Saturday, July 25
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, July 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, July 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, July 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, July 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, July 29 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220726 SPC AC 220726
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper Midwest to Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic
An upper ridge centered over the High Plains will persist through the middle of next week. Meanwhile, upper troughing will be maintained over the eastern U.S. Periods of enhanced northwesterly flow aloft are expected across parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes into parts of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic on the eastern periphery of the Plains upper ridge. Several shortwave impulses are forecast to develop southeast from Canada within this northwest flow regime. This could support daily severe thunderstorm chances from the Upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley, and possibly the Mid-Atlantic. However, the timing of these features is uncertain, and midlevel capping could limit the spatial extent of severe potential. It is likely that portions of the Upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley will need severe probabilities in later outlooks, particularly for Day 4-6/Sat-Mon, and possibly the mid-Atlantic by Day 7/Tue. However, confidence in where this risk will develop each day is too low for 15 percent delineation at this time.
..Leitman.. 07/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, July 26
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, July 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, July 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, July 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, July 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, July 29 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220726 SPC AC 220726
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper Midwest to Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic
An upper ridge centered over the High Plains will persist through the middle of next week. Meanwhile, upper troughing will be maintained over the eastern U.S. Periods of enhanced northwesterly flow aloft are expected across parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes into parts of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic on the eastern periphery of the Plains upper ridge. Several shortwave impulses are forecast to develop southeast from Canada within this northwest flow regime. This could support daily severe thunderstorm chances from the Upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley, and possibly the Mid-Atlantic. However, the timing of these features is uncertain, and midlevel capping could limit the spatial extent of severe potential. It is likely that portions of the Upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley will need severe probabilities in later outlooks, particularly for Day 4-6/Sat-Mon, and possibly the mid-Atlantic by Day 7/Tue. However, confidence in where this risk will develop each day is too low for 15 percent delineation at this time.
..Leitman.. 07/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, July 27
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, July 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, July 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, July 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, July 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, July 29 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220726 SPC AC 220726
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper Midwest to Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic
An upper ridge centered over the High Plains will persist through the middle of next week. Meanwhile, upper troughing will be maintained over the eastern U.S. Periods of enhanced northwesterly flow aloft are expected across parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes into parts of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic on the eastern periphery of the Plains upper ridge. Several shortwave impulses are forecast to develop southeast from Canada within this northwest flow regime. This could support daily severe thunderstorm chances from the Upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley, and possibly the Mid-Atlantic. However, the timing of these features is uncertain, and midlevel capping could limit the spatial extent of severe potential. It is likely that portions of the Upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley will need severe probabilities in later outlooks, particularly for Day 4-6/Sat-Mon, and possibly the mid-Atlantic by Day 7/Tue. However, confidence in where this risk will develop each day is too low for 15 percent delineation at this time.
..Leitman.. 07/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, July 28
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, July 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, July 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, July 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, July 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, July 29 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220726 SPC AC 220726
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper Midwest to Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic
An upper ridge centered over the High Plains will persist through the middle of next week. Meanwhile, upper troughing will be maintained over the eastern U.S. Periods of enhanced northwesterly flow aloft are expected across parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes into parts of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic on the eastern periphery of the Plains upper ridge. Several shortwave impulses are forecast to develop southeast from Canada within this northwest flow regime. This could support daily severe thunderstorm chances from the Upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley, and possibly the Mid-Atlantic. However, the timing of these features is uncertain, and midlevel capping could limit the spatial extent of severe potential. It is likely that portions of the Upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley will need severe probabilities in later outlooks, particularly for Day 4-6/Sat-Mon, and possibly the mid-Atlantic by Day 7/Tue. However, confidence in where this risk will develop each day is too low for 15 percent delineation at this time.
..Leitman.. 07/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, July 29
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, July 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, July 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, July 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, July 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, July 29 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220726 SPC AC 220726
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper Midwest to Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic
An upper ridge centered over the High Plains will persist through the middle of next week. Meanwhile, upper troughing will be maintained over the eastern U.S. Periods of enhanced northwesterly flow aloft are expected across parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes into parts of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic on the eastern periphery of the Plains upper ridge. Several shortwave impulses are forecast to develop southeast from Canada within this northwest flow regime. This could support daily severe thunderstorm chances from the Upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley, and possibly the Mid-Atlantic. However, the timing of these features is uncertain, and midlevel capping could limit the spatial extent of severe potential. It is likely that portions of the Upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley will need severe probabilities in later outlooks, particularly for Day 4-6/Sat-Mon, and possibly the mid-Atlantic by Day 7/Tue. However, confidence in where this risk will develop each day is too low for 15 percent delineation at this time.
..Leitman.. 07/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, July 22
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Thursday, July 23
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Friday, July 24
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Saturday, July 25
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, July 26
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, July 27
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, July 28
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, July 29
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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