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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Wednesday, April 22

Outlook Summary

Isolated strong-severe thunderstorms with strong gusts and hail will be possible across parts of the High Plains this afternoon and evening, as well as from northeast Indiana into northern Ohio.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 221951

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Valid 222000Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Isolated strong-severe thunderstorms with strong gusts and hail will be possible across parts of the High Plains this afternoon and evening, as well as from northeast Indiana into northern Ohio.

20Z Update

The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with mainly minor adjustments made to the general thunder and severe probabilities to reflect the latest observations and guidance consensus.

..Squitieri/Mosier.. 04/22/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026/

Synopsis

Recent surface analysis shows an airmass modifying under low-level moisture advection across the southern and central Plains, with mid 50s dewpoints reaching through central KS and into eastern NE/western IA. This moderate low-level moisture also extends eastward from IA into northern IL and IN, just south of a stationary boundary that demarcates a drier, more stable airmass across much of the Great Lakes from the modifying airmass farther south/southwest.

This analysis also reveals a pair of surface lows, one over north-central MT and the other over far northeast WY/far southeast MT, linked by modest surface troughing. A wavy surface trough also extends southward to another low over southeast CO. Thunderstorm development is anticipated today/tonight near these lows and their related surface boundaries. In particular, strong to isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible near the northeast WY/far southeast MT low as it moves eastward across SD, as well as in the vicinity of the stationary boundary across northern IN and OH.

IN/OH

Weak surface low over southern Lower MI has already contributed to thunderstorm development. The airmass downstream of this low, and south of the stationary boundary that extends east-to-west near the MI and IN/OH border vicinity, will likely destabilize throughout the day amid continued low-level moisture advection and strong diurnal heating. This destabilization coupled with low-level convergence near the low and boundary will support increasing thunderstorm coverage. Deep-layer wind profiles will be modest, but cool mid-level temperatures and weak-moderate buoyancy could support isolated severe hail and gusty outflow winds with the strongest storms.

High Plains

Primary surface low over central MT is forecast to deepen today as a closed upper low currently over the Great Basin ejects northeastward while evolving towards a more open wave. At the same time, a secondary surface low (currently over far northeast WY/far southeast MT) is forecast to move eastward across SD, interacting with the modifying airmass across the northern/central Plains. Expectation is for this airmass to be deeply mixed, with perhaps some minimal buoyancy atop the well-mixed boundary layer. Development of a few high-based thunderstorms is possible this afternoon/evening from NE into SD, as well as northeast MT, along the trough where deep mixing and inverted-v profiles will favor strong outflow gusts.

Farther south, an even more conditional risk is anticipated along a sharpening dryline from southwest NE and western KS into west TX. Given the limited large-scale forcing and only weak low-level convergence, warm mid-level temperatures and related capping associated with a notable elevated mixed layer will likely suppress thunderstorm development. Here, deep-layer vertical shear will be sufficient for supercells, and a conditional risk for large hail and strong gusts exists with any updrafts that are able to persist and mature.

Western/Central NE into the Dakotas

Additional thunderstorms are possible tonight from western/central NE into the Dakotas as an eastward-progressing cold front interacts with low-level moisture continuing to advect northward across the Plains and a strengthening low-level jet. These storms will likely be elevated behind the front, with some isolated hail possible early in the convective cycle. Additionally, mid-level dry air will likely remain across the region, supporting the potential for strong outflow gusts despite the storms elevated character.

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Outlook for Thursday, April 23

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms will be possible from southern Kansas into southern Minnesota on Thursday. Large hail to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 221722

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms will be possible from southern Kansas into southern Minnesota on Thursday. Large hail to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible.

Synopsis

A short-wave trough initially over the northern High Plains Thursday morning is forecast to shift east across the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley in tandem with a belt of 50-60 kt south-southwest winds in the mid levels. A secondary, lower-latitude disturbance will advance into western KS and the OK/TX panhandles late Thursday afternoon into evening, along with a more zonal mid/upper-level jet streak. At the surface, the primary cyclone attendant to the northern Plains system is expected to undergo occlusion over southern into central Manitoba, while a trailing cold front progresses east through the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley. A pre-frontal trough or pseudo-dryline will precede the cold front, extending from western MN through western IA and eastern NE into central KS by early to mid afternoon. A secondary surface low is forecast to deepen across portions of southwest KS or northwest OK Thursday afternoon in response to the approach of the lower-latitude disturbance mentioned above. A more classic dryline will extend south from that low through western OK into western north TX during the peak of the diurnal heating cycle.

Upper MS Valley and upper Midwest through the mid/lower MO Valley into central/eastern KS

A broad, nocturnal, low-level wind maximum will develop across the Great Plains tonight (Wed. night), enhancing the poleward flux of an increasingly moist boundary layer beneath a residual EML plume residing across the same region. The moisture increase beneath a capping inversion at the base of the EML may result in considerable cloud cover Thursday afternoon across portions of the warm sector air mass. Where cloud breaks occur, model soundings indicate the potential for MLCAPE to approach 1000-1500 J/kg across portions of southern MN to as high as 2000-3000+ J/kg in central and eastern KS.

By early to mid afternoon, convergence along the pre-frontal trough/dryline coupled with increasing height falls/forcing for ascent are expected to support widely scattered thunderstorms from portions of central and southern MN through eastern NE and western IA, into at least northeast KS. While the strongest mid/upper-level wind fields are expected to remain to the immediate west of the initiating boundary, a corridor of 40-45 kt effective bulk shear will overlie the western fringe of the warm sector, supporting organized multicells and supercells as the initial storm mode with an attendant threat for large to very large hail and a few tornadoes. Subsequent upscale growth into a broken band of storms is expected Thursday evening into Thursday night across portions of eastern MN into western WI, western and central IA, southeast NE, northeast KS, and northwest MO. Damaging wind potential will increase with that mode change, with a continued risk for a few tornadoes.

The most favorable overlap of moderate to strong instability and vertical wind shear is expected to develop across central into eastern KS Thursday afternoon into evening. Here, a few intense supercells capable of all severe-weather hazards appear possible, and a categorical upgrade to a level 3/Enhanced Risk may be required in subsequent Day 1 outlooks.

OK into north TX

Moderate to strong instability (MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg) is expected to develop east of the dryline by late afternoon into early evening on Thursday. However, strong capping at the base of the EML casts considerable uncertainty on whether storms can develop. While the strongest forcing for ascent associated with the secondary short-wave trough is expected to remain across KS, subtle mid-level height falls are forecast across northern OK. Otherwise, strong heating to the west of the dryline and resultant deepening circulations along it will be the primary mechanism responsible for any storm development.

On the condition that isolated storms develop and become sustained, the kinematic environment will support supercells capable of very large hail and tornadoes. This is especially the case during the evening hours as low-level shear strengthens in response to the amplification of the low-level jet.

..Mead.. 04/22/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Friday, April 24

Outlook Summary

A few severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Friday. Large hail and damaging wind gusts should be the primary threats.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 221930

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY

### SUMMARY

A few severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Friday. Large hail and damaging wind gusts should be the primary threats.

Southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley

Storms may be ongoing at the start of the period Friday morning from parts of OK into AR/MO, and possibly into the lower OH Valley. While a general weakening trend is expected during the morning, the strongest early-day storms could pose a threat of isolated hail and localized strong/damaging gusts.

The primary severe threat is expected to develop from the afternoon into the evening, along the primary outflow/cold front and any other residual boundaries left over from the morning convection. The strongest heating/destabilization is expected from parts of TX into southeast OK, where MLCAPE of 2000-3000 may develop, with moderate instability expected as far east as the lower MS/OH Valleys.

At this time, the greatest diurnal storm coverage is expected from eastern OK/northeast TX into AR, where a weak midlevel shortwave trough and potential MCV may overlap moderate to strong buoyancy. Effective shear will be relatively modest (generally 30-35 kt), but sufficient to support some storm organization. Initial diurnal development in this region could pose a threat for hail and locally damaging wind. Low-level flow/shear will generally remain weak, but storm/boundary interactions could also support a low tornado threat. With time, consolidating outflows could support modest upscale growth and a potential increase in damaging-wind potential into the early evening as storms spread east-southeastward.

Storm coverage may remain quite isolated across western portions of the Level 2/Slight Risk area, due to weak large-scale ascent, but isolated development will be possible as CINH weakens. The strongly unstable and sufficiently sheared environment will conditionally favor a severe threat across parts of southern OK and north TX, if storms can be sustained.

..Dean.. 04/22/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Saturday, April 25

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220900 SPC AC 220900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

DISCUSSION

An active severe weather pattern will continue through early next week.

On Saturday/Day-4, model guidance continues to show thunderstorms developing during the late afternoon and early evening hours along a lifting warm front across the Southern Plains. Along and south of this boundary, the environment will be strongly unstable with MUCAPE values between 2000-3000 J/kg as a low-level jet continually advects mid 60Fs dewpoints north across the boundary. Effective layer shear around 40 knots would support an initial supercell threat that should grow upscale into bowing segments overnight. A 30% area is introduced across southwest Kansas into east-central Oklahoma for the expectation is for strong bowing segments to move east-southeast overnight into a strong low-level jet. These storms will be capable of producing strong winds, large hail, and QLCS tornadoes.

On Sunday/Day-5, ongoing convection across southeast Kansas and western Missouri at the start of the period may pose a continued risk of hail and damaging winds, and this convection may persist into mid morning. To the west, continued moist low-level advection will allow for surface dewpoints to rise into the upper 60Fs to low 70Fs across central Oklahoma to the east of a sharp dryline. At the same time, a low-amplitude shortwave should approach the Southern Plains during the late afternoon and evening hours, with a mid-990-millibar surface low developing across northwest Oklahoma along the dryline. The result of this setup will be a volatile atmosphere where MLCAPE values around 4000 J/kg exist within a strongly shear environment (vertical shear nearly 50 knots). Should thunderstorms initiate, a high-end severe weather threat could materialize during the late afternoon and evening hours across central and eastern Oklahoma and southern Kansas. However, global models continue to struggle to develop convection within this environment despite model guidance having modest upward vertical velocities overspreading the dryline. Pattern recognition suggests the need for a 30% severe area for this potential despite the lack of a QPF signal in the global models, and have opted to add one with this forecast. The location of this 30% will likely need to be refined in subsequent outlooks.

The severe threat should continue into Monday/Day-6 across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley. Strong storms should develop along and ahead of an eastward moving cold front. MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and 40-knots of deep-layer shear will support supercell thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards. The location, number, and intensity of these supercells will likely be modulated by the events of Sunday. Specifically, if widespread convection does not occur Sunday across the Southern Plains, a more robust reservoir of CAPE/lapse-rates will be available to thunderstorms across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Monday and a higher-end severe potential may develop. This will be monitored in subsequent forecasts.

By Tuesday/Day-7 into Wednesday/Day-8, uncertainty in the severe potential across the southeast increases too much to have confidence in identifying specific locations. Although, as the mesoscale details become cleared in the preceding days, areas may need to be added in subsequent forecasts.

..Marsh.. 04/22/2026

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Outlook for Sunday, April 26

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220900 SPC AC 220900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

DISCUSSION

An active severe weather pattern will continue through early next week.

On Saturday/Day-4, model guidance continues to show thunderstorms developing during the late afternoon and early evening hours along a lifting warm front across the Southern Plains. Along and south of this boundary, the environment will be strongly unstable with MUCAPE values between 2000-3000 J/kg as a low-level jet continually advects mid 60Fs dewpoints north across the boundary. Effective layer shear around 40 knots would support an initial supercell threat that should grow upscale into bowing segments overnight. A 30% area is introduced across southwest Kansas into east-central Oklahoma for the expectation is for strong bowing segments to move east-southeast overnight into a strong low-level jet. These storms will be capable of producing strong winds, large hail, and QLCS tornadoes.

On Sunday/Day-5, ongoing convection across southeast Kansas and western Missouri at the start of the period may pose a continued risk of hail and damaging winds, and this convection may persist into mid morning. To the west, continued moist low-level advection will allow for surface dewpoints to rise into the upper 60Fs to low 70Fs across central Oklahoma to the east of a sharp dryline. At the same time, a low-amplitude shortwave should approach the Southern Plains during the late afternoon and evening hours, with a mid-990-millibar surface low developing across northwest Oklahoma along the dryline. The result of this setup will be a volatile atmosphere where MLCAPE values around 4000 J/kg exist within a strongly shear environment (vertical shear nearly 50 knots). Should thunderstorms initiate, a high-end severe weather threat could materialize during the late afternoon and evening hours across central and eastern Oklahoma and southern Kansas. However, global models continue to struggle to develop convection within this environment despite model guidance having modest upward vertical velocities overspreading the dryline. Pattern recognition suggests the need for a 30% severe area for this potential despite the lack of a QPF signal in the global models, and have opted to add one with this forecast. The location of this 30% will likely need to be refined in subsequent outlooks.

The severe threat should continue into Monday/Day-6 across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley. Strong storms should develop along and ahead of an eastward moving cold front. MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and 40-knots of deep-layer shear will support supercell thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards. The location, number, and intensity of these supercells will likely be modulated by the events of Sunday. Specifically, if widespread convection does not occur Sunday across the Southern Plains, a more robust reservoir of CAPE/lapse-rates will be available to thunderstorms across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Monday and a higher-end severe potential may develop. This will be monitored in subsequent forecasts.

By Tuesday/Day-7 into Wednesday/Day-8, uncertainty in the severe potential across the southeast increases too much to have confidence in identifying specific locations. Although, as the mesoscale details become cleared in the preceding days, areas may need to be added in subsequent forecasts.

..Marsh.. 04/22/2026

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Outlook for Monday, April 27

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220900 SPC AC 220900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

DISCUSSION

An active severe weather pattern will continue through early next week.

On Saturday/Day-4, model guidance continues to show thunderstorms developing during the late afternoon and early evening hours along a lifting warm front across the Southern Plains. Along and south of this boundary, the environment will be strongly unstable with MUCAPE values between 2000-3000 J/kg as a low-level jet continually advects mid 60Fs dewpoints north across the boundary. Effective layer shear around 40 knots would support an initial supercell threat that should grow upscale into bowing segments overnight. A 30% area is introduced across southwest Kansas into east-central Oklahoma for the expectation is for strong bowing segments to move east-southeast overnight into a strong low-level jet. These storms will be capable of producing strong winds, large hail, and QLCS tornadoes.

On Sunday/Day-5, ongoing convection across southeast Kansas and western Missouri at the start of the period may pose a continued risk of hail and damaging winds, and this convection may persist into mid morning. To the west, continued moist low-level advection will allow for surface dewpoints to rise into the upper 60Fs to low 70Fs across central Oklahoma to the east of a sharp dryline. At the same time, a low-amplitude shortwave should approach the Southern Plains during the late afternoon and evening hours, with a mid-990-millibar surface low developing across northwest Oklahoma along the dryline. The result of this setup will be a volatile atmosphere where MLCAPE values around 4000 J/kg exist within a strongly shear environment (vertical shear nearly 50 knots). Should thunderstorms initiate, a high-end severe weather threat could materialize during the late afternoon and evening hours across central and eastern Oklahoma and southern Kansas. However, global models continue to struggle to develop convection within this environment despite model guidance having modest upward vertical velocities overspreading the dryline. Pattern recognition suggests the need for a 30% severe area for this potential despite the lack of a QPF signal in the global models, and have opted to add one with this forecast. The location of this 30% will likely need to be refined in subsequent outlooks.

The severe threat should continue into Monday/Day-6 across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley. Strong storms should develop along and ahead of an eastward moving cold front. MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and 40-knots of deep-layer shear will support supercell thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards. The location, number, and intensity of these supercells will likely be modulated by the events of Sunday. Specifically, if widespread convection does not occur Sunday across the Southern Plains, a more robust reservoir of CAPE/lapse-rates will be available to thunderstorms across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Monday and a higher-end severe potential may develop. This will be monitored in subsequent forecasts.

By Tuesday/Day-7 into Wednesday/Day-8, uncertainty in the severe potential across the southeast increases too much to have confidence in identifying specific locations. Although, as the mesoscale details become cleared in the preceding days, areas may need to be added in subsequent forecasts.

..Marsh.. 04/22/2026

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Outlook for Tuesday, April 28

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220900 SPC AC 220900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

DISCUSSION

An active severe weather pattern will continue through early next week.

On Saturday/Day-4, model guidance continues to show thunderstorms developing during the late afternoon and early evening hours along a lifting warm front across the Southern Plains. Along and south of this boundary, the environment will be strongly unstable with MUCAPE values between 2000-3000 J/kg as a low-level jet continually advects mid 60Fs dewpoints north across the boundary. Effective layer shear around 40 knots would support an initial supercell threat that should grow upscale into bowing segments overnight. A 30% area is introduced across southwest Kansas into east-central Oklahoma for the expectation is for strong bowing segments to move east-southeast overnight into a strong low-level jet. These storms will be capable of producing strong winds, large hail, and QLCS tornadoes.

On Sunday/Day-5, ongoing convection across southeast Kansas and western Missouri at the start of the period may pose a continued risk of hail and damaging winds, and this convection may persist into mid morning. To the west, continued moist low-level advection will allow for surface dewpoints to rise into the upper 60Fs to low 70Fs across central Oklahoma to the east of a sharp dryline. At the same time, a low-amplitude shortwave should approach the Southern Plains during the late afternoon and evening hours, with a mid-990-millibar surface low developing across northwest Oklahoma along the dryline. The result of this setup will be a volatile atmosphere where MLCAPE values around 4000 J/kg exist within a strongly shear environment (vertical shear nearly 50 knots). Should thunderstorms initiate, a high-end severe weather threat could materialize during the late afternoon and evening hours across central and eastern Oklahoma and southern Kansas. However, global models continue to struggle to develop convection within this environment despite model guidance having modest upward vertical velocities overspreading the dryline. Pattern recognition suggests the need for a 30% severe area for this potential despite the lack of a QPF signal in the global models, and have opted to add one with this forecast. The location of this 30% will likely need to be refined in subsequent outlooks.

The severe threat should continue into Monday/Day-6 across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley. Strong storms should develop along and ahead of an eastward moving cold front. MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and 40-knots of deep-layer shear will support supercell thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards. The location, number, and intensity of these supercells will likely be modulated by the events of Sunday. Specifically, if widespread convection does not occur Sunday across the Southern Plains, a more robust reservoir of CAPE/lapse-rates will be available to thunderstorms across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Monday and a higher-end severe potential may develop. This will be monitored in subsequent forecasts.

By Tuesday/Day-7 into Wednesday/Day-8, uncertainty in the severe potential across the southeast increases too much to have confidence in identifying specific locations. Although, as the mesoscale details become cleared in the preceding days, areas may need to be added in subsequent forecasts.

..Marsh.. 04/22/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, April 29

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220900 SPC AC 220900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

DISCUSSION

An active severe weather pattern will continue through early next week.

On Saturday/Day-4, model guidance continues to show thunderstorms developing during the late afternoon and early evening hours along a lifting warm front across the Southern Plains. Along and south of this boundary, the environment will be strongly unstable with MUCAPE values between 2000-3000 J/kg as a low-level jet continually advects mid 60Fs dewpoints north across the boundary. Effective layer shear around 40 knots would support an initial supercell threat that should grow upscale into bowing segments overnight. A 30% area is introduced across southwest Kansas into east-central Oklahoma for the expectation is for strong bowing segments to move east-southeast overnight into a strong low-level jet. These storms will be capable of producing strong winds, large hail, and QLCS tornadoes.

On Sunday/Day-5, ongoing convection across southeast Kansas and western Missouri at the start of the period may pose a continued risk of hail and damaging winds, and this convection may persist into mid morning. To the west, continued moist low-level advection will allow for surface dewpoints to rise into the upper 60Fs to low 70Fs across central Oklahoma to the east of a sharp dryline. At the same time, a low-amplitude shortwave should approach the Southern Plains during the late afternoon and evening hours, with a mid-990-millibar surface low developing across northwest Oklahoma along the dryline. The result of this setup will be a volatile atmosphere where MLCAPE values around 4000 J/kg exist within a strongly shear environment (vertical shear nearly 50 knots). Should thunderstorms initiate, a high-end severe weather threat could materialize during the late afternoon and evening hours across central and eastern Oklahoma and southern Kansas. However, global models continue to struggle to develop convection within this environment despite model guidance having modest upward vertical velocities overspreading the dryline. Pattern recognition suggests the need for a 30% severe area for this potential despite the lack of a QPF signal in the global models, and have opted to add one with this forecast. The location of this 30% will likely need to be refined in subsequent outlooks.

The severe threat should continue into Monday/Day-6 across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley. Strong storms should develop along and ahead of an eastward moving cold front. MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and 40-knots of deep-layer shear will support supercell thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards. The location, number, and intensity of these supercells will likely be modulated by the events of Sunday. Specifically, if widespread convection does not occur Sunday across the Southern Plains, a more robust reservoir of CAPE/lapse-rates will be available to thunderstorms across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Monday and a higher-end severe potential may develop. This will be monitored in subsequent forecasts.

By Tuesday/Day-7 into Wednesday/Day-8, uncertainty in the severe potential across the southeast increases too much to have confidence in identifying specific locations. Although, as the mesoscale details become cleared in the preceding days, areas may need to be added in subsequent forecasts.

..Marsh.. 04/22/2026

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National Risk Overview

Wednesday, April 22

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 5%

Thursday, April 23

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Friday, April 24

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Saturday, April 25

ANY SEVERE: 30%

Sunday, April 26

ANY SEVERE: 30%

Monday, April 27

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Tuesday, April 28

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Wednesday, April 29

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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