Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, July 14
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and large hail are expected today across parts of northern New York and northern New England. Additional storms with isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible in parts of the northern Rockies and northern High Plains.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 30%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 140556
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and large hail are expected today across parts of northern New York and northern New England. Additional storms with isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible in parts of the northern Rockies and northern High Plains.
Northeast
At mid-levels today, a fast-moving shortwave trough and an associated jet streak will move southeastward across southeastern Canada. At the surface, very moist air with surface dewpoints in the 70s F will be in place over much of the Northeast. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability will develop over much of the region. By afternoon, an axis of low-level convergence is forecast to develop along a pre-frontal trough, from near Lake Ontario northeastward into far southern Quebec. This zone will be a focus for convective initiation this afternoon. During the mid to late afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to form near the surface trough and move southeastward into northern New York and northern New England.
As the mid-level jet approaches from the northwest, the entrance region of jet will enhance lift and deep-layer shear across much of the Northeast. By late this afternoon, RAP forecast soundings over northern New England have 0-6 km shear near 50 knots, with MLCAPE peaking in the 2500 to 3000 J/kg range. The environment will support a mixed mode with supercells and organized line segments possible. 0-3 km lapse rates are forecast to peak near 7 C/km, which will support a threat for severe wind gusts, especially with intense line segments. A few severe gusts above 70 mph may occur. The potential for large hail and tornadoes will be most likely with supercells. The threat for supercells will be greatest from northern New York into northern Vermont and northwest Maine, where mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be near 7 C/km. Within this corridor, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to be in the 250 to 300 m2/s2 range, suggesting potential for a strong tornado.
Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains
At mid-levels today, flow will be southwesterly across the northwestern U.S. At the surface, upslope flow will be in place from the northern High Plains to the Rockies. Surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F along an east-to-west moist axis, which is forecast across eastern and central Montana. As surface temperatures warm, a pocket of instability will develop near the moist axis. Thunderstorm formation will be possible along this east-to-west zone and in the higher terrain of western and central Montana. By late afternoon, RAP forecast soundings in central Montana have MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg with 0-6 km shear near 35 knots. In addition, mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep in the 7 to 8 C/km range. This will support a threat for isolated severe wind gusts and hail.
..Broyles/Halbert.. 07/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Wednesday, July 15
Outlook Summary
The potential for organized severe storms continues to appear low on Wednesday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 140542
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
The potential for organized severe storms continues to appear low on Wednesday.
Synopsis
A broad mid-level ridge across the central United States will take on an increasingly negative tilt on Wednesday, with the elongated highest heights within the ridge found from the eastern Dakotas southeast into southern Virginia and northern North Carolina. This will occur in large part due to an eastern Pacific closed low building the ridge axis northward into western Canada, a strong shortwave trough impinging upon the northeast periphery of the ridge, and a closed mid-level low undercutting southern portions of the ridge as it begins to be drawn northwestward toward the main belt of westerlies.
At the surface, generally hot conditions will be maintained across most of the CONUS – the exception largely being northern New England. A moist airmass will remain entrenched across much of the eastern US, with a southward advancing surface boundary across the Northeast serving to delineate the warm, moist airmass to the south from the cooler, drier airmass to the north.
### Northern New Jersey north/east into far southern New England
An unstable airmass will be in place along and south of the aforementioned surface front where MUCAPE values should increase to between 500-1500 J/kg during the afternoon. The front will be on the southern fringe of the greater mid-level flow, contributing to effective-layer shear on the order of 45 knots.
Modest height falls may overspread the frontal boundary during the afternoon in association with an approaching mid-level speed maximum. This may provide enough forcing for widely scattered thunderstorm development in the region from the lower Great Lakes into the northern Mid-Atlantic and far southern New England. The best signal for initiation is along the coastal areas of southern New England/New York, which will limit their potential to produce severe weather before moving offshore. Should thunderstorm initiation occur earlier in the day (and thus farther inland) or thunderstorm coverage is greater than currently expected, a marginal threat for large hail and damaging winds may be realized and severe probabilities would need to be introduced in a later outlook.
### Western Montana
Thunderstorms will once again be possible on Wednesday, thanks in large part to the continued presence of mid-level moisture and modest diurnal heating. Model guidance suggests that widespread cloud cover may limit afternoon heating, which would impact overall instability and resulting thunderstorm intensity. Should robust convection develop, the region remains beneath enhanced mid-level flow that may be transported down to the surface as strong thunderstorm winds/outflow. However, confidence in this occurring is too low to warrant unconditional severe probabilities with this outlook.
..Marsh.. 07/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Thursday, July 16
Outlook Summary
Organized severe thunderstorms are currently not expected on Thursday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 140720
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Organized severe thunderstorms are currently not expected on Thursday.
Synopsis
The closed mid-level low off the coast of the Pacific Northwest will begin to lift north/northeast on Thursday. As it does, strong southerly mid-level flow will force height rises across the northern US Rockies and southwest Canada. These rising heights will allow the mid-level ridge across much of the US to redevelop northwestward –from the Midwest toward the northern US Rockies.
At the same time, the second strong mid-level trough this week will move across New England, bringing with it a reinforcing shot of seasonably cool and dry air. A surface cold front will push southward through New England, ending up in the vicinity of the Mid-Atlantic by Friday morning.
The airmass across much of the US, especially areas east of the Rockies, will be very warm and moist with afternoon temperatures generally 5-15 degrees above normal outside of areas with widespread cloud cover and precipitation. Mid-level flow will be generally weak across areas of the US with adequate buoyancy for thunderstorm development. Thus, the severe weather potential on Thursday remains too low to warrant unconditional severe weather probabilities.
..Marsh.. 07/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Friday, July 17
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, July 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, July 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, July 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, July 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, July 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140901 SPC AC 140901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Ensemble guidance remains in good agreement that the US mid-level pattern will transition from a CONUS-wide ridge centered over the north-central US to a western US ridge and eastern US trough. However the details of how this transition evolves are still uncertain.
The general pattern through the forecast period will favor northwest flow from the Upper Midwest southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and areas north and east from there. Individual members of the ensemble suite, including the control members, show several small vorticity/speed maxima moving through the flow this weekend in quick succession, with significant variability in the strength of these waves. Ensemble guidance does have support for a more substantial shortwave trough moving through the area, but differ on when this will occur. For example, both the control runs of the ECMWF and GFS have a stronger wave moving across the Great Lakes, but the GFS does so on Saturday and Sunday, whereas the ECMWF does so on Monday and Tuesday.
Thus, while the overall pattern will favor thunderstorm development, perhaps in relatively quick succession, uncertainty is too high to highlight any severe areas with confidence at current lead times.
..Marsh.. 07/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, July 18
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, July 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, July 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, July 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, July 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, July 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140901 SPC AC 140901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Ensemble guidance remains in good agreement that the US mid-level pattern will transition from a CONUS-wide ridge centered over the north-central US to a western US ridge and eastern US trough. However the details of how this transition evolves are still uncertain.
The general pattern through the forecast period will favor northwest flow from the Upper Midwest southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and areas north and east from there. Individual members of the ensemble suite, including the control members, show several small vorticity/speed maxima moving through the flow this weekend in quick succession, with significant variability in the strength of these waves. Ensemble guidance does have support for a more substantial shortwave trough moving through the area, but differ on when this will occur. For example, both the control runs of the ECMWF and GFS have a stronger wave moving across the Great Lakes, but the GFS does so on Saturday and Sunday, whereas the ECMWF does so on Monday and Tuesday.
Thus, while the overall pattern will favor thunderstorm development, perhaps in relatively quick succession, uncertainty is too high to highlight any severe areas with confidence at current lead times.
..Marsh.. 07/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, July 19
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, July 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, July 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, July 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, July 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, July 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140901 SPC AC 140901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Ensemble guidance remains in good agreement that the US mid-level pattern will transition from a CONUS-wide ridge centered over the north-central US to a western US ridge and eastern US trough. However the details of how this transition evolves are still uncertain.
The general pattern through the forecast period will favor northwest flow from the Upper Midwest southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and areas north and east from there. Individual members of the ensemble suite, including the control members, show several small vorticity/speed maxima moving through the flow this weekend in quick succession, with significant variability in the strength of these waves. Ensemble guidance does have support for a more substantial shortwave trough moving through the area, but differ on when this will occur. For example, both the control runs of the ECMWF and GFS have a stronger wave moving across the Great Lakes, but the GFS does so on Saturday and Sunday, whereas the ECMWF does so on Monday and Tuesday.
Thus, while the overall pattern will favor thunderstorm development, perhaps in relatively quick succession, uncertainty is too high to highlight any severe areas with confidence at current lead times.
..Marsh.. 07/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, July 20
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, July 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, July 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, July 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, July 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, July 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140901 SPC AC 140901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Ensemble guidance remains in good agreement that the US mid-level pattern will transition from a CONUS-wide ridge centered over the north-central US to a western US ridge and eastern US trough. However the details of how this transition evolves are still uncertain.
The general pattern through the forecast period will favor northwest flow from the Upper Midwest southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and areas north and east from there. Individual members of the ensemble suite, including the control members, show several small vorticity/speed maxima moving through the flow this weekend in quick succession, with significant variability in the strength of these waves. Ensemble guidance does have support for a more substantial shortwave trough moving through the area, but differ on when this will occur. For example, both the control runs of the ECMWF and GFS have a stronger wave moving across the Great Lakes, but the GFS does so on Saturday and Sunday, whereas the ECMWF does so on Monday and Tuesday.
Thus, while the overall pattern will favor thunderstorm development, perhaps in relatively quick succession, uncertainty is too high to highlight any severe areas with confidence at current lead times.
..Marsh.. 07/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, July 21
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, July 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, July 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, July 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, July 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, July 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140901 SPC AC 140901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Ensemble guidance remains in good agreement that the US mid-level pattern will transition from a CONUS-wide ridge centered over the north-central US to a western US ridge and eastern US trough. However the details of how this transition evolves are still uncertain.
The general pattern through the forecast period will favor northwest flow from the Upper Midwest southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and areas north and east from there. Individual members of the ensemble suite, including the control members, show several small vorticity/speed maxima moving through the flow this weekend in quick succession, with significant variability in the strength of these waves. Ensemble guidance does have support for a more substantial shortwave trough moving through the area, but differ on when this will occur. For example, both the control runs of the ECMWF and GFS have a stronger wave moving across the Great Lakes, but the GFS does so on Saturday and Sunday, whereas the ECMWF does so on Monday and Tuesday.
Thus, while the overall pattern will favor thunderstorm development, perhaps in relatively quick succession, uncertainty is too high to highlight any severe areas with confidence at current lead times.
..Marsh.. 07/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, July 14
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 30%
- Wednesday, July 15
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Thursday, July 16
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Friday, July 17
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, July 18
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, July 19
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, July 20
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, July 21
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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