Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, January 22
Outlook Summary
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Florida today, but severe thunderstorms are not expected.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 221953
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026
Valid 222000Z - 231200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Florida today, but severe thunderstorms are not expected.
No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast.
..Hart.. 01/22/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 0955 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026/
SE FL
A weak surface boundary lies just offshore along the southeast FL coast. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will persist along this boundary through early evening as an upper trough progresses across the region. This threat should weaken after dark. No severe storms are expected.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Friday, January 23
Outlook Summary
Scattered weak thunderstorm activity appears possible Friday into Friday night in a corridor across the Texas Big Bend into central Texas.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 221709
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Scattered weak thunderstorm activity appears possible Friday into Friday night in a corridor across the Texas Big Bend into central Texas.
Discussion
A confluent mid-level regime will generally be maintained across and east of the Rockies through this period, downstream of amplified split flow across the central/eastern Pacific into far western North America. Although models continue to indicate that peak surface pressures within the center of initially prominent, cold surface ridging will begin to fall while it slowly shifts east of the Missouri Valley, appreciable modification of the Arctic air will be slow, and it is likely to continue surging southward across the remainder of the southern Great Plains, through much of south central and southwestern Texas by late Friday night.
The leading edge of this air mass is also forecast to advance further offshore of the southern Mid Atlantic coast, but slower southward through the eastern Gulf Coast states and lower Mississippi Valley. Models indicate that this will occur beneath a broad building mid-level ridge east of the Rio Grande Valley into the Southeast, downstream of digging mid-level troughing across the international border into the northern U.S. Rockies/Great Plains and a short wave trough emerging from the southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific.
There is notable continuing spread concerning the eastward acceleration of the southern perturbation, generally toward Baja, Friday through Friday night. However, an increasingly moist and strengthening downstream southerly return flow still appears probable across and north of the lower Rio Grande Valley and Texas coastal areas, particularly during the latter half of the period.
Southern Great Plains across/northeast of Red River Valley
Forecast soundings and other model output continue to indicate that lower/mid-tropospheric thermal and moisture advection may lead to thermodynamic profiles characterized by at least very weak to weak conditional instability in a sizable swath from the northern Mexican Plateau across the southern Great Plains, including north and northeast of the Red River Valley. However, particularly with north-northeastward extent, above the southward surging cold surface air, these same soundings generally exhibit little in the way of convective instability, with profiles tending to becoming saturated while also warming aloft. So the extent of potential for convective development capable of producing lightning remains unclear Friday through Friday night.
Modestly steeper mid-level lapse rates, and perhaps better potential for weak thunderstorm activity, may remain confined to a corridor across the Texas Big Bend into Edwards Plateau, and adjacent portions of central Texas, where mid/upper support for convective development may be aided by a short wave perturbation emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific.
..Kerr.. 01/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Saturday, January 24
Outlook Summary
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Saturday through Saturday night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 221914
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Saturday through Saturday night.
Discussion
Downstream of amplified split flow across the Pacific into western North America, models indicate that several short wave troughs will gradually consolidate into larger-scale mid-level troughing across the Rockies and Great Plains into Mississippi Valley during this period. This is likely to include at least a couple of merging perturbations of Canadian Arctic origin digging across the international border through the northern U.S. Rockies and Great Plains, and another emerging from the northern mid-latitude Pacific before digging inland across the Pacific Northwest coast through the Great Basin. Yet another impulse, emerging from the southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific, is generally forecast to accelerate across Baja and the northern Mexican Plateau, into the southern Great Plains by late Saturday night.
Preceded by the southeastward development of an expansive cold surface ridge across much of the nation to the east of the Rockies, as far south as the Gulf coast vicinity, the potential for significant lee surface cyclogenesis appears low through this period. However, latest guidance appears generally consistent indicating modestly deepening surface troughing, accompanying erosion of the cold air, in one corridor across the lower Mississippi Valley toward the lower Ohio Valley, and another near/offshore of the Carolina coast by late Saturday night. Associated destabilization still appears likely to remain elevated, and generally weak, in nature inland of northwestern and central Gulf coastal areas, with negligible risk for severe weather through at least 12Z Sunday.
..Kerr.. 01/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Sunday, January 25
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, January 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, January 26 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, January 27 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, January 28 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, January 29 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220855 SPC AC 220855
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
A surface low over the Deep South on Day 4/Sunday morning will develop east/northeast through early Monday, moving offshore the Carolinas coast. As this occurs, an arctic cold front will continue to push southeast across the Southeast U.S. Ahead of the front, modified Gulf moisture will be in place, supporting weak instability. As an upper trough approaches, large-scale ascent and warm advection atop the surface front will support isolated thunderstorms across southern MS/AL into northern FL and southern GA. Modest instability and poor lapse rates should limit severe potential within the warm sector.
By Day 5/Monday, the cold front will have moved well offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts and an arctic airmass will envelop much of the CONUS. Mean troughing is forecast to persist, allowing reinforcing shots of colder air to filter southward east of the Rockies and preclude any return flow across the Gulf basin.
..Leitman.. 01/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, January 26
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, January 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, January 26 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, January 27 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, January 28 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, January 29 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220855 SPC AC 220855
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
A surface low over the Deep South on Day 4/Sunday morning will develop east/northeast through early Monday, moving offshore the Carolinas coast. As this occurs, an arctic cold front will continue to push southeast across the Southeast U.S. Ahead of the front, modified Gulf moisture will be in place, supporting weak instability. As an upper trough approaches, large-scale ascent and warm advection atop the surface front will support isolated thunderstorms across southern MS/AL into northern FL and southern GA. Modest instability and poor lapse rates should limit severe potential within the warm sector.
By Day 5/Monday, the cold front will have moved well offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts and an arctic airmass will envelop much of the CONUS. Mean troughing is forecast to persist, allowing reinforcing shots of colder air to filter southward east of the Rockies and preclude any return flow across the Gulf basin.
..Leitman.. 01/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, January 27
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, January 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, January 26 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, January 27 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, January 28 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, January 29 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220855 SPC AC 220855
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
A surface low over the Deep South on Day 4/Sunday morning will develop east/northeast through early Monday, moving offshore the Carolinas coast. As this occurs, an arctic cold front will continue to push southeast across the Southeast U.S. Ahead of the front, modified Gulf moisture will be in place, supporting weak instability. As an upper trough approaches, large-scale ascent and warm advection atop the surface front will support isolated thunderstorms across southern MS/AL into northern FL and southern GA. Modest instability and poor lapse rates should limit severe potential within the warm sector.
By Day 5/Monday, the cold front will have moved well offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts and an arctic airmass will envelop much of the CONUS. Mean troughing is forecast to persist, allowing reinforcing shots of colder air to filter southward east of the Rockies and preclude any return flow across the Gulf basin.
..Leitman.. 01/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, January 28
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, January 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, January 26 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, January 27 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, January 28 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, January 29 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220855 SPC AC 220855
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
A surface low over the Deep South on Day 4/Sunday morning will develop east/northeast through early Monday, moving offshore the Carolinas coast. As this occurs, an arctic cold front will continue to push southeast across the Southeast U.S. Ahead of the front, modified Gulf moisture will be in place, supporting weak instability. As an upper trough approaches, large-scale ascent and warm advection atop the surface front will support isolated thunderstorms across southern MS/AL into northern FL and southern GA. Modest instability and poor lapse rates should limit severe potential within the warm sector.
By Day 5/Monday, the cold front will have moved well offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts and an arctic airmass will envelop much of the CONUS. Mean troughing is forecast to persist, allowing reinforcing shots of colder air to filter southward east of the Rockies and preclude any return flow across the Gulf basin.
..Leitman.. 01/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, January 29
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, January 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, January 26 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, January 27 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, January 28 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, January 29 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220855 SPC AC 220855
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
A surface low over the Deep South on Day 4/Sunday morning will develop east/northeast through early Monday, moving offshore the Carolinas coast. As this occurs, an arctic cold front will continue to push southeast across the Southeast U.S. Ahead of the front, modified Gulf moisture will be in place, supporting weak instability. As an upper trough approaches, large-scale ascent and warm advection atop the surface front will support isolated thunderstorms across southern MS/AL into northern FL and southern GA. Modest instability and poor lapse rates should limit severe potential within the warm sector.
By Day 5/Monday, the cold front will have moved well offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts and an arctic airmass will envelop much of the CONUS. Mean troughing is forecast to persist, allowing reinforcing shots of colder air to filter southward east of the Rockies and preclude any return flow across the Gulf basin.
..Leitman.. 01/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, January 22
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Friday, January 23
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Saturday, January 24
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Sunday, January 25
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, January 26
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, January 27
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, January 28
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, January 29
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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