Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, March 10
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast on Tuesday from the southern Plains into the southern Great Lakes vicinity. All severe hazards are possible, including the risk for a few strong tornadoes and very large hail.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 10%
wind 30%
hail 30%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 100538
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI…ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA. AN ENHANCED RISK IS ALSO FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast on Tuesday from the southern Plains into the southern Great Lakes vicinity. All severe hazards are possible, including the risk for a few strong tornadoes and very large hail.
Southern Great Lakes
Strong northern stream will gradually sag south across the northern Rockies as a short-wave trough ejects across MT/WY. This feature is forecast to advance into the eastern portion of the northern Plains by 11/12z as a 90+kt 500mb speed max translates across northwest IA into southern MN. Late timing of this feature is not particularly conducive for assisting daytime convection downstream across northern IL/IN region, as height falls will lag until the latter half of the period. Even so, latest model guidance suggests a weak surface low will evolve along the front and track across northern MO into northwest IL by early evening, then toward southern Lake MI by midnight.
Boundary-layer heating should prove instrumental in destabilization ahead of the surface low and forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures may be breached after 21z from northern MO into northern IL. Strong deep-layer shear favors supercell development and this activity will spread east, along/south of a warm front that should extend across northern IL into southern MI. Temperature gradient across this boundary will be sharp so any supercells that spread north of the wind shift will quickly become elevated and pose mainly a hail risk. Environmental conditions south of the front should be characterized by MLCAPE in excess of 2500 J/kg with strong 0-3km SRH. Tornadoes and large hail are certainly possible with warm-sector supercells. Parameters favor the potential for strong tornadoes. This activity will spread east during the overnight hours, possibly as far east as portions of northeast OH, as westerly flow strengthens across this portion of the Great Lakes.
### Southern Plains
Strong upper low is clearly evident on water-vapor imagery over the central Baja Peninsula early this morning. This low is ejecting east-northeast in line with latest model guidance and should advance into north central Mexico by 18z, then into far west TX by early evening as it begins to open up. Strong boundary layer heating will be noted across northeast Mexico, north along the TX/NM border into western KS. As a result, steep 0-3km lapse rates will develop ahead of the approaching trough. Leading edge of large-scale ascent should overspread the dry line around 21z and supercells should quickly evolve as midlevel temperatures will cool quickly immediately ahead of the trough. Very large hail is possible with initial supercell development before strong forcing encourages a more linear evolution and possible elongated MCS. Strong winds may accompany this squall line.
Latest model guidance also suggests a weak disturbance may eject well ahead of the primary low into south central TX. Deep convection is possible ahead of this feature, but the primary concern will be some hail and gusts.
..Darrow/Lyons.. 03/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Wednesday, March 11
Outlook Summary
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday from the ArkLaTex and Lower Mississippi Valley northeastward through the Ohio Valley vicinity.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 100600
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC
### SUMMARY
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday from the ArkLaTex and Lower Mississippi Valley northeastward through the Ohio Valley vicinity.
ArkLaTex to Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic
A messy scenario is evident heading into Wednesday from east Texas northeast into PA/MD/VA. A northern stream upper trough will develop east across the Great Lakes/Midwest, while a southern stream shortwave trough moves across TX and the Lower MS Valley. A broad swath of strong southwesterly deep layer flow will overspread these areas, with a particularly strong jet max across the Ohio Valley (80-100 kt at 500 mb). At the surface, a cold front will be oriented from southern Lower MI into central OK Wednesday morning. A dryline/Pacific front will then extend southward across east-central TX. A surface cyclone is expected to deepen as it moves northeast near the international border and Lower Great Lakes through Wednesday evening. As this occurs, the surface cold front will develop southeast, eventually overtaking the TX dryline during the afternoon. This front will become oriented from the Mid-Atlantic coast to the central Gulf coast by Thursday morning.
Ahead of the surface boundaries, a broad warm sector will be in place, with surface dewpoints into the 60s F as far north as PA. The strongest instability will likely be focused across the Lower MS Valley where dewpoints into the mid/upper 60s F are possible and at least some stronger surface heating will be possible. With northward extent, instability will decrease, but MLCAPE up to 500-1000 J/kg will be common across the Ohio Valley into VA. One of the main concerns/points of uncertainty precluding higher probabilities across the Ohio Valley vicinity is possible ongoing convection during the morning, and multiple rounds of convection within the broad warm advection regime limiting lapse rates/instability and greater severe potential. Nevertheless, intense deep-layer southwesterly flow will support damaging wind potential across a broad area and an outlook upgrade was considered for parts of southeast OH/northeast KY/southwest PA and western/northern WV. If enough destabilization occurs and a strongly forced line of convection develops, damaging gusts and a few tornadoes could occur.
Further south into the ArkLaTex and Lower MS Valley vicinity, a line of convection is expected to be ongoing Wednesday morning. Deep-layer flow will not be as strong compared to further north, but still more than adequate for organized convection. Lapse rates are forecast to remain modest, but linear convection along the surging cold front will pose an all-hazards severe risk. Some forecast guidance suggests discrete convection could develop ahead of the line. If this occurs, some increased risk for tornadoes will develop, especially as storms merge with the line. However, confidence in this scenario is low. Depending on forecast trends, outlook upgrades could become necessary in subsequent outlooks.
..Leitman.. 03/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Thursday, March 12
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorm potential is not expected on Thursday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 100638
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorm potential is not expected on Thursday.
Synopsis
An upper trough will pivot east across the eastern U.S. on Thursday. A surface low located over New England will lift northeast into the Canadian Maritimes, while a trailing surface cold front moves across the Eastern Seaboard and Southeast. Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing along the front Thursday morning. While a moist airmass will exist ahead of this activity across the Southeast into the eastern Carolinas, limited heating and poor lapse rates will preclude stronger destabilization (MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg expected). This should largely limit severe potential ahead of the front. The front should move offshore the Carolinas and northern FL into the central Gulf by mid to late afternoon. Some thunderstorm potential will persist across the FL Peninsula, but severe storms are not expected.
..Leitman.. 03/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Friday, March 13
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, March 13 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, March 14 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, March 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, March 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, March 17 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100747 SPC AC 100747
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe thunderstorm potential will remain low on Days 4-5/Fri-Sat as a cold frontal passage and surface high pressure over the central U.S. leave a dry/stable airmass across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies.
On Saturday, lower-amplitude, quasi-zonal flow over much of the U.S. will amplify as a shortwave upper trough deepens over the Rockies and emerges over the High Plains by Day 6/Sunday morning. As this occurs, modest Gulf moisture will return northward across east TX into the Mid-South. A strong surface low is forecast to move across the Upper Midwest on Sunday as the upper trough continues to dig and shift east into the Midwest. This will bring a cold front southeast across portions of the Plains and Midwest. Some severe potential could develop across central portions of the U.S. on Day 6/Sunday as the cold front sweeps eastward, but confidence is low given a lack of deeper moisture return overlapping with stronger shear across the Midwest.
As the upper trough and surface cold front continue east on Day 7/Monday, some low-end severe potential could possibly develop across the Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast, but confidence is low given similar concerns to those on Day 6/Sunday. With this system moving offshore by the end of the period, severe potential appears low on Day 8/Tuesday.
..Leitman.. 03/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, March 14
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, March 13 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, March 14 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, March 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, March 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, March 17 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100747 SPC AC 100747
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe thunderstorm potential will remain low on Days 4-5/Fri-Sat as a cold frontal passage and surface high pressure over the central U.S. leave a dry/stable airmass across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies.
On Saturday, lower-amplitude, quasi-zonal flow over much of the U.S. will amplify as a shortwave upper trough deepens over the Rockies and emerges over the High Plains by Day 6/Sunday morning. As this occurs, modest Gulf moisture will return northward across east TX into the Mid-South. A strong surface low is forecast to move across the Upper Midwest on Sunday as the upper trough continues to dig and shift east into the Midwest. This will bring a cold front southeast across portions of the Plains and Midwest. Some severe potential could develop across central portions of the U.S. on Day 6/Sunday as the cold front sweeps eastward, but confidence is low given a lack of deeper moisture return overlapping with stronger shear across the Midwest.
As the upper trough and surface cold front continue east on Day 7/Monday, some low-end severe potential could possibly develop across the Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast, but confidence is low given similar concerns to those on Day 6/Sunday. With this system moving offshore by the end of the period, severe potential appears low on Day 8/Tuesday.
..Leitman.. 03/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, March 15
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, March 13 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, March 14 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, March 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, March 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, March 17 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100747 SPC AC 100747
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe thunderstorm potential will remain low on Days 4-5/Fri-Sat as a cold frontal passage and surface high pressure over the central U.S. leave a dry/stable airmass across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies.
On Saturday, lower-amplitude, quasi-zonal flow over much of the U.S. will amplify as a shortwave upper trough deepens over the Rockies and emerges over the High Plains by Day 6/Sunday morning. As this occurs, modest Gulf moisture will return northward across east TX into the Mid-South. A strong surface low is forecast to move across the Upper Midwest on Sunday as the upper trough continues to dig and shift east into the Midwest. This will bring a cold front southeast across portions of the Plains and Midwest. Some severe potential could develop across central portions of the U.S. on Day 6/Sunday as the cold front sweeps eastward, but confidence is low given a lack of deeper moisture return overlapping with stronger shear across the Midwest.
As the upper trough and surface cold front continue east on Day 7/Monday, some low-end severe potential could possibly develop across the Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast, but confidence is low given similar concerns to those on Day 6/Sunday. With this system moving offshore by the end of the period, severe potential appears low on Day 8/Tuesday.
..Leitman.. 03/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, March 16
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, March 13 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, March 14 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, March 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, March 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, March 17 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100747 SPC AC 100747
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe thunderstorm potential will remain low on Days 4-5/Fri-Sat as a cold frontal passage and surface high pressure over the central U.S. leave a dry/stable airmass across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies.
On Saturday, lower-amplitude, quasi-zonal flow over much of the U.S. will amplify as a shortwave upper trough deepens over the Rockies and emerges over the High Plains by Day 6/Sunday morning. As this occurs, modest Gulf moisture will return northward across east TX into the Mid-South. A strong surface low is forecast to move across the Upper Midwest on Sunday as the upper trough continues to dig and shift east into the Midwest. This will bring a cold front southeast across portions of the Plains and Midwest. Some severe potential could develop across central portions of the U.S. on Day 6/Sunday as the cold front sweeps eastward, but confidence is low given a lack of deeper moisture return overlapping with stronger shear across the Midwest.
As the upper trough and surface cold front continue east on Day 7/Monday, some low-end severe potential could possibly develop across the Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast, but confidence is low given similar concerns to those on Day 6/Sunday. With this system moving offshore by the end of the period, severe potential appears low on Day 8/Tuesday.
..Leitman.. 03/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, March 17
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, March 13 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, March 14 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, March 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, March 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, March 17 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100747 SPC AC 100747
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe thunderstorm potential will remain low on Days 4-5/Fri-Sat as a cold frontal passage and surface high pressure over the central U.S. leave a dry/stable airmass across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies.
On Saturday, lower-amplitude, quasi-zonal flow over much of the U.S. will amplify as a shortwave upper trough deepens over the Rockies and emerges over the High Plains by Day 6/Sunday morning. As this occurs, modest Gulf moisture will return northward across east TX into the Mid-South. A strong surface low is forecast to move across the Upper Midwest on Sunday as the upper trough continues to dig and shift east into the Midwest. This will bring a cold front southeast across portions of the Plains and Midwest. Some severe potential could develop across central portions of the U.S. on Day 6/Sunday as the cold front sweeps eastward, but confidence is low given a lack of deeper moisture return overlapping with stronger shear across the Midwest.
As the upper trough and surface cold front continue east on Day 7/Monday, some low-end severe potential could possibly develop across the Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast, but confidence is low given similar concerns to those on Day 6/Sunday. With this system moving offshore by the end of the period, severe potential appears low on Day 8/Tuesday.
..Leitman.. 03/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, March 10
- TORNADO: 10%
- HAIL: 30%
- WIND: 30%
- Wednesday, March 11
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Thursday, March 12
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Friday, March 13
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, March 14
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, March 15
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, March 16
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, March 17
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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