Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, July 5
Outlook Summary
Scattered wind damage is possible with thunderstorms across the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail and damaging gusts may occur with thunderstorms in North Dakota with occurrences of hail and damaging winds possible from west into northwest Texas as well.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 30%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 051245
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026
Valid 051300Z - 061200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC…NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA…AND NORTHWEST/WEST TEXAS
### SUMMARY
Scattered wind damage is possible with thunderstorms across the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail and damaging gusts may occur with thunderstorms in North Dakota with occurrences of hail and damaging winds possible from west into northwest Texas as well.
Upper Ohio Valley into Mid-Atlantic and Carolina Piedmont
Early morning surface analysis places a low over northwest OH, along a diffuse west to east oriented cold front extending from IA through PA and NJ. Expectation is for this low to gradually shift eastward just ahead of slow-moving shortwave trough. Thunderstorm development is anticipated in the vicinity of this low as well as along the cold front, forced predominantly by low-level convergence, across the Upper OH Valley. Lapse rates will be poor, but warm and moist surface conditions will still support modest buoyancy and the potential for strong updrafts. Vertical shear is weak so storm organization will be limited, but a few bowing segments are still possible given the potential for strong cold pools. Highest likelihood for a few stronger gusts will be across eastern PA and NJ where slightly stronger mid-level flow exists.
Modest lee troughing is expected from central MD southwestward through the Carolina Piedmont. Diurnal airmass destabilization is anticipated in the vicinity of this troughing, supported by very warm and moist conditions (i.e. temperatures in the upper 90s and dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s). Afternoon thunderstorms are expected along this troughing, with moderate to strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE from 1500 to 2500 J/kg) supporting strong updrafts and potential water loading. Vertical shear will be weak, so the expectation is for outflow-dominant multicell storms to merge into clusters or line segments. The hot, well-mixed PBL and resultant, steep low-level lapse rates will enhance the damaging wind potential from mid afternoon into evening. Damaging wind potential is expected to be more sporadic with southward extent into the Carolinas owing to more limited storm coverage.
Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains
Steep mid-level lapse rates are forecast to spread eastward/northeastward from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains, ahead of a shortwave trough progressing through southern British Columbia and Alberta. The boundary layer will be relatively warm and modestly dry, but, given the steep mid-level lapse rates in place, airmass destabilization is still anticipated. Height falls associated with the shortwave will augment convergence along a cold front to provide the lift needed for thunderstorm development in western ND after the airmass destabilizes. There should be enough vertical shear in place to support organized storm structures capable of large hail and damaging gusts.
Thunderstorm development also appears possible farther west across MT closer to the shortwave trough. These storms are expected to be high based atop a well-mixed boundary layer with severe wind gusts being the predominant hazard.
Southern High Plains into east TX
An outflow boundary from the overnight storms in OK currently arcs from east-central TX (near LFK) northwestward to near MWL and into west TX where it intersects a low east of LUB. Thunderstorm development appears likely along this boundary once the airmass diurnally destabilizes this afternoon. Highest coverage is anticipated from west into northwest TX, with more isolated to widely scattered coverage expected farther east. Vertical shear will be weak, resulting in an outflow-dominant storm structure. High storm bases and a deeply mixed boundary layer should result in strong cold pools across west/northwest TX, with cold pool amalgamation perhaps resulting a greater potential for damaging gusts than farther east.
Lower MS Valley into AL
A very moist airmass will support diurnal destabilization and moderate to strong buoyancy this afternoon from the Lower MS Valley eastward into AL. Remnant MCS and associated vorticity maximum currently moving across northern LA are forecast to continue eastward/southeastward, with a second, smaller convective cluster also continuing across northern/central AL. These features will interact with the moist and unstable airmass this afternoon, supporting thunderstorm development. Vertical shear will be weak and a predominantly outflow-dominant multicellular mode is anticipated. Some stronger gusts are possible via water-loaded downbursts and/or occasional bowing segments.
..Mosier/Dean.. 07/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Monday, July 6
Outlook Summary
Strong thunderstorm development posing at least some risk for severe weather is possible across parts of northern Minnesota through the eastern and central Dakotas, as well as across parts of the Mid Atlantic, Monday afternoon into evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 050443
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC
### SUMMARY
Strong thunderstorm development posing at least some risk for severe weather is possible across parts of northern Minnesota through the eastern and central Dakotas, as well as across parts of the Mid Atlantic, Monday afternoon into evening.
Discussion
Downstream of digging large-scale mid-level troughing and an associated surface cyclone slowly approaching the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast, ridging may become increasingly prominent across Baja California through the southern Rockies and central Great Plains during this period. Mid-level heights may tend to remain steady or slowly rise as far north as the eastern Montana/North Dakota international border, in the wake of a notable mid-level trough forecast to progress through northwestern Ontario and Hudson Bay by late Monday night.
It appears that one vigorous impulse embedded within the troughing, and forecast to continue accelerating east-northeastward, to the north of the international border, may provide support for stronger secondary surface cyclogenesis across the southern Hudson Bay vicinity by Monday night.
To the east of the mid-level ridging, weak mid-level troughing may continue to drift slowly east of the Mississippi Valley, toward the Appalachians.
In association with this evolving regime, the potential for organized severe thunderstorm activity still appears generally low and dependent on sub-synoptic developments with rather low predictability at this time frame. This continues to be reflected in latest model output, including convection allowing and related guidance, which exhibit sizable spread concerning potential convective evolution and locations with higher probabilities for thunderstorm development.
Northern Great Plains
Deeper surface troughing and mid-level height falls are forecast to pass to the north of the international border through this period. However, there appears at least some continuing signal in model output that boundary-layer moisture return to the vicinity of weak pre-frontal surface troughing, coincident with southeastward suppression of warmer and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air, could allow for scattered strong thunderstorm development by late Monday afternoon. If this occurs, moderate to large potential instability, in the presence of at least modest shear beneath 30-40 kt 500 mb flow, probably will be conducive to storms capable of producing severe hail and wind, before perhaps tending to be undercut by a southward advancing cold front trailing the developing Canadian cyclone.
Mid Atlantic
The timing and/or location of highest thunderstorm probabilities across the region differs notably between the REFS and HREF calibrated thunderstorm guidance, and deep-layer mean flow and shear will be rather weak. However, destabilization within broad, weak surface troughing to the lee of the Blue Ridge might become sufficient to focus scattered thunderstorm development with potential to produce localized damaging surface gusts Monday afternoon into early evening.
..Kerr.. 07/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Tuesday, July 7
Outlook Summary
An organizing cluster of thunderstorms may pose increasing potential to produce strong to severe wind gusts by late Tuesday evening into Tuesday night across parts of the middle Missouri Valley toward the Upper Midwest.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 050726
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA
### SUMMARY
An organizing cluster of thunderstorms may pose increasing potential to produce strong to severe wind gusts by late Tuesday evening into Tuesday night across parts of the middle Missouri Valley toward the Upper Midwest.
Discussion
Models suggest that the westerlies may become a bit less progressive across the higher latitudes of North America during this period, with a deep remnant lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone only slowly migrating east-northeastward across Hudson Bay toward the northern Quebec shores. Upstream, a notable trough is forecast to only slowly pivot inland of the British Columbia coast.
In advance of the trailing perturbation, a low-amplitude trough within modest zonal westerlies across the northern tier of the U.S. is forecast to progress east of the northern Rockies, and flatten initial mid-level ridging across the middle Missouri Valley by late Tuesday night.
Otherwise, mid-level ridging is forecast to remain prominent along an axis from the subtropical eastern Pacific through the central and southern Great Plains, while also developing northwestward from the subtropical western Atlantic into parts of the southeast. A remnant trough or shear axis will likely linger in between, near/west through southwest of the southern Appalachians.
Parts of the middle Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest
Latest guidance suggests that potential for stronger convective development may still remain largely influenced by sub-synoptic developments with rather low predictability at this time frame. However, there appears a consistent enough developing convective signal among the various model output to lead to some confidence in the evolution of an organized convective system across the mid Missouri Valley vicinity by late Tuesday night.
It appears that stronger pre-frontal daytime heating may focus moderate to strong destabilization in a corridor roughly across south central South Dakota toward southwestern Minnesota by late Tuesday afternoon. Beneath steep lapse rates, surface dew point increases to around 70F may support mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 2000-3000+ J/kg.
As remnant warm elevated mixed-layer air is suppressed further southward, the initiation of storms capable of producing severe hail and wind seems probable by early Tuesday evening. It is possible that the most substantive upscale growth, intensification and organization awaits forcing associated with a nocturnal strengthening low-level jet toward late evening. But, as this occurs, the environment appears potentially conducive to the development of a swath of damaging winds as it propagates east-southeastward Tuesday night.
..Kerr.. 07/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Wednesday, July 8
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, July 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, July 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, July 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, July 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, July 12 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050851 SPC AC 050851
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
In the wake of a short wave trough pivoting inland of the British Columbia coast by mid week, medium-range guidance continues to indicate the gradual development of large-scale ridging across the much of the Intermountain West through Great Plains and Mississippi Valley late this week through next weekend. It appears that a center of seasonably high mid-level heights will evolve and develop northeastward, west through north of the Four Corners, into northern Colorado by the end of the period. Prior to and as this occurs, this may be preceded by the transition of a generally zonal to broadly cyclonic regime across and east of the northern Great Plains through northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard, but embedded short wave developments remain rather unclear.
Regardless, it still appears that substantive potential for organized severe thunderstorm development, if any, will largely remain influenced by sub-synoptic developments yet to evolve, and of particularly low predictability at this extended time frame.
..Kerr.. 07/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, July 9
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, July 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, July 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, July 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, July 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, July 12 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050851 SPC AC 050851
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
In the wake of a short wave trough pivoting inland of the British Columbia coast by mid week, medium-range guidance continues to indicate the gradual development of large-scale ridging across the much of the Intermountain West through Great Plains and Mississippi Valley late this week through next weekend. It appears that a center of seasonably high mid-level heights will evolve and develop northeastward, west through north of the Four Corners, into northern Colorado by the end of the period. Prior to and as this occurs, this may be preceded by the transition of a generally zonal to broadly cyclonic regime across and east of the northern Great Plains through northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard, but embedded short wave developments remain rather unclear.
Regardless, it still appears that substantive potential for organized severe thunderstorm development, if any, will largely remain influenced by sub-synoptic developments yet to evolve, and of particularly low predictability at this extended time frame.
..Kerr.. 07/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, July 10
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, July 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, July 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, July 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, July 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, July 12 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050851 SPC AC 050851
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
In the wake of a short wave trough pivoting inland of the British Columbia coast by mid week, medium-range guidance continues to indicate the gradual development of large-scale ridging across the much of the Intermountain West through Great Plains and Mississippi Valley late this week through next weekend. It appears that a center of seasonably high mid-level heights will evolve and develop northeastward, west through north of the Four Corners, into northern Colorado by the end of the period. Prior to and as this occurs, this may be preceded by the transition of a generally zonal to broadly cyclonic regime across and east of the northern Great Plains through northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard, but embedded short wave developments remain rather unclear.
Regardless, it still appears that substantive potential for organized severe thunderstorm development, if any, will largely remain influenced by sub-synoptic developments yet to evolve, and of particularly low predictability at this extended time frame.
..Kerr.. 07/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, July 11
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, July 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, July 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, July 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, July 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, July 12 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050851 SPC AC 050851
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
In the wake of a short wave trough pivoting inland of the British Columbia coast by mid week, medium-range guidance continues to indicate the gradual development of large-scale ridging across the much of the Intermountain West through Great Plains and Mississippi Valley late this week through next weekend. It appears that a center of seasonably high mid-level heights will evolve and develop northeastward, west through north of the Four Corners, into northern Colorado by the end of the period. Prior to and as this occurs, this may be preceded by the transition of a generally zonal to broadly cyclonic regime across and east of the northern Great Plains through northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard, but embedded short wave developments remain rather unclear.
Regardless, it still appears that substantive potential for organized severe thunderstorm development, if any, will largely remain influenced by sub-synoptic developments yet to evolve, and of particularly low predictability at this extended time frame.
..Kerr.. 07/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, July 12
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, July 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, July 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, July 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, July 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, July 12 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050851 SPC AC 050851
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
In the wake of a short wave trough pivoting inland of the British Columbia coast by mid week, medium-range guidance continues to indicate the gradual development of large-scale ridging across the much of the Intermountain West through Great Plains and Mississippi Valley late this week through next weekend. It appears that a center of seasonably high mid-level heights will evolve and develop northeastward, west through north of the Four Corners, into northern Colorado by the end of the period. Prior to and as this occurs, this may be preceded by the transition of a generally zonal to broadly cyclonic regime across and east of the northern Great Plains through northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard, but embedded short wave developments remain rather unclear.
Regardless, it still appears that substantive potential for organized severe thunderstorm development, if any, will largely remain influenced by sub-synoptic developments yet to evolve, and of particularly low predictability at this extended time frame.
..Kerr.. 07/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, July 5
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 30%
- Monday, July 6
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Tuesday, July 7
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Wednesday, July 8
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, July 9
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, July 10
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, July 11
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, July 12
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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