Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Sunday, June 21

Monday, June 22

Tuesday, June 23

Wednesday, June 24

Thursday, June 25

Friday, June 26

Saturday, June 27

Sunday, June 28

Outlook for Sunday, June 21

Outlook Summary

Tornadoes (possibly strong) and damaging winds remain possible this evening into parts of the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. A swath of severe gusts (possibly greater than 75 mph) appears possible later tonight from southwest Kansas into central Oklahoma.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 5%

wind 30%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 220112

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0812 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Valid 220100Z - 221200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST KS INTO NORTH-CENTRAL OK

### SUMMARY

Tornadoes (possibly strong) and damaging winds remain possible this evening into parts of the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. A swath of severe gusts (possibly greater than 75 mph) appears possible later tonight from southwest Kansas into central Oklahoma.

Mid MS Valley into the Ohio Valley

An MCV moving across IN will eventually encounter weaker low-level moisture and instability with eastward extent. However, a long-lived storm cluster may continue eastward toward parts of southwest OH and eastern KY, before a definitive weakening trend occurs. Damaging wind and embedded tornadoes will remain possible with the primary storm cluster until weakening occurs. Semi-discrete cells and small clusters trailing the MCV will also continue to pose a threat of tornadoes (possibly strong) and damaging winds through the evening, within a moist and favorably sheared environment. See MCD 1237 for more information.

Central High Plains into OK and southern MO

Widely scattered storm development is underway near a surface boundary draped from northwest OK into southeast KS/southwest MO. While large-scale forcing is generally modest at best, MLCAPE of 2500-4000 J/kg and effective shear of 40+ kt are conditionally quite favorable for organized storms. A few supercells may persist along the front through the evening, with a threat of large to very large hail and localized severe gusts. Also, while low-level flow is weak, vorticity and backed surface winds near the boundary could support some tornado potential, if a robust supercell can become established.

Farther northwest, a supercell cluster is ongoing across western KS this evening. This cluster will continue to pose a threat of large to very large hail, severe gusts, and possibly a tornado through the evening. See MCD 1239 for more information regarding the short-term threat.

Short-term guidance (notably the HRRR and RRFS) suggests that this cluster will continue to grow upscale, and potentially evolve into an MCS that will move southeastward across southwest KS into northwest and central OK, with threat of severe gusts (potentially above 75 mph) through the overnight hours. This evolution appears plausible, if evening convection across northwest OK is not too disruptive to the environment. Given the very favorable midlevel lapse rates on the 00Z DDC and OUN soundings, rich moisture, and strong instability and deep-layer shear, a 30%/CIG1 wind area was added from southwest KS into central OK.

..Dean.. 06/22/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Monday, June 22

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe storms appear possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic into the Southern Appalachians Monday afternoon and evening. Widely scattered severe storms are expected across the northern and central High Plains, with more isolated severe weather possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 15%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 211721

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS…AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe storms appear possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic into the Southern Appalachians Monday afternoon and evening. Widely scattered severe storms are expected across the northern and central High Plains, with more isolated severe weather possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley.

Synopsis

A series of perturbations, embedded within broadly cyclonic mid-level flow, will progress eastward to the Atlantic Coast, to the south of an upper low tracking from eastern Ontario into southern Quebec. Farther west, separate vorticity maxima will overspread the northern and central High Plains, in tandem with a belt of strengthening mid-level winds.

In the lower levels, a 40-50 kt low-level jet (LLJ) is forecast to migrate from the Allegheny Plateau into the lower Hudson and DE River Valleys Monday afternoon, ahead of a surface low developing toward those same areas. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will advance south through the central Appalachians, TN Valley, and Ozark Plateau, with the western extension of the boundary linking with a secondary low over western TX. Elsewhere, a lee cyclone is expected to deepen over eastern WY, along a weak front settling southeast through the northern High Plains.

### Mid-Atlantic into the southern Appalachians

12Z CAM guidance is in relatively good agreement in depicting the remnants of an overnight (Sunday night/early Monday morning) MCS overspreading NY and PA, within a zone of warm air and moisture advection occurring with the terminus of the LLJ. To the south/southeast of that convection across the lower Hudson and DE River Valleys, modest air mass destabilization is expected, with comparably stronger instability with southward extent into the central/southern Appalachians and Piedmont. Deep-layer shear is forecast to strengthen through the day as a belt of 40-50 kt winds at 500 mb overspreads the region from the west.

Thunderstorms are expected to increase in areal coverage and intensity during the afternoon from the vicinity of the outflow or differential heating boundary in eastern PA south/southwest into the southern Appalachians and Piedmont. Damaging winds will be the primary hazard owing to steepening low-level lapse rates and high moisture content, which will enhance wet-microburst processes. A relatively narrow corridor of potentially greater tornado potential may materialize from the DelMarVa into the DE River Valley, where stronger low-level shear is forecast. However, given uncertainties in the degree of air mass destabilization in the northern extent of that area, the 2% unconditional tornado probability will be maintained. A separate area of tornado potential may materialize Monday afternoon across parts of the southern Appalachians within the southwest extension of the LLJ, where a number of the 12Z CAMs indicate updraft-helicity swaths embedded within a linear complex of storms.

### Northern and central High Plains

The deepening lee cyclone will enhance the flux of an increasingly moist low-level air mass into the high terrain, beneath a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates, supporting moderate afternoon instability. Greatest storm coverage is expected across portions of eastern MT and western ND Monday afternoon within the northern extent of the instability axis, where the strongest forcing for ascent is expected. Weaker forcing with southward extent is expected to lead to more widely spaced storms in eastern WY and CO. Here, comparatively stronger instability and vertical shear will support supercells capable of large to very large hail and perhaps a brief tornado or two during the afternoon and evening hours.

### Southern Plains

Areas of storms ongoing Monday morning across parts of the Red River Valley into the ArkLaTex region are expected to gradually weaken by midday, owing to rising mid-level heights across the region. In the wake of that activity, moderate to strong instability is forecast by afternoon in the vicinity of the stalled synoptic front and any remnant outflow boundaries. However, considerable uncertainty remains in surface-based storm development given the absence of appreciable forcing for ascent. As such, the low unconditional probabilities will be maintained with this forecast update. On the condition surface-based storms develop and are sustained, the parameter space would support intense supercells capable of large to very large hail and some tornado threat.

..Mead.. 06/21/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, June 23

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe storms are expected across the central High Plains on Tuesday with isolated severe storms possible into the Upper Mississippi Valley. Large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 211916

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe storms are expected across the central High Plains on Tuesday with isolated severe storms possible into the Upper Mississippi Valley. Large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats.

Synopsis

An upper low initially over Saskatchewan/Manitoba will drift southeast to along the international border with an attending belt of 40-50+ kt mid-level flow forecast across the northern and central Plains into the upper Midwest. Farther east, a short-wave trough trailing an upper low over Ontario will move through the Mid-Atlantic. In the low levels, an area of low pressure is forecast to develop from the northern Plains into upper MS Valley with a trailing boundary extending southwest into the central High Plains. Elsewhere, a cold front will move off the Mid-Atlantic Coast with the trailing extension of the boundary moving into the Southeast.

### Central and southern High Plains

Despite the potential for early-day storms across portions of NE, TX, and OK, the EML is expected to remain intact over the central High Plains. When coupled with an increasingly moist upslope air mass in the vicinity of the front, moderate to strong instability is forecast by afternoon. Diurnally enhanced thunderstorms are expected to form along favored terrain and pre-existing surface boundaries amidst a kinematic environment featuring vertically veering winds with height with sufficient vertical shear to support supercells capable of large to very large hail. The nocturnal strengthening of a low-level jet over western parts of KS, OK, and TX may favor upscale growth of storms into a forward-propagating MCS Tuesday evening with an associated increase in severe-wind-gust potential.

### Upper Mississippi Valley into the mid Missouri Valley

Latest model data are in good agreement in depicting areas of showers and storms lingering through much of the day across the pre-frontal warm sector. Vertical shear is forecast to be sufficiently strong to support organized storm modes, especially across the upper MS Valley. However, the potential for clouds and precipitation to limit air mass destabilization leads to uncertainty in the extent of the severe-weather threat. As such, the low severe-weather probabilities will be maintained with this forecast update.

### Middle and southern Atlantic Coast into the central Gulf Coast States

A few strong storms capable of gusty winds appear possible Tuesday afternoon along and ahead of the synoptic front. While poor low/mid-level lapse rates are expected to limit a more robust damaging-wind threat, low severe-weather probabilities may eventually be added once details in storm evolution become more clear.

..Mead.. 06/21/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, June 24

Outlook Images

any severe 15%

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, June 24	15%
Day 5	Thursday, June 25	15%
Day 6	Friday, June 26	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, June 27	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, June 28	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210811 SPC AC 210811

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday - Central High Plains

As high pressure builds into the central/northern Plains on Wednesday and Thursday, upslope flow will remain persistent across eastern Colorado and eastern Wyoming. Moderate to strong instability is expected in this area with 40 to 50 knots of west-northwesterly flow aloft. This should result in a favorable upslope regime capable of supercells. A relatively narrow unstable corridor should keep the most favorable severe threat somewhat confined to the higher elevation prairies where instability and upslope flow will be maximized.

Friday and Saturday, ridging is forecast to translate east across the Plains, which may lead to a relative lull in severe weather threat. However, by Sunday and into early next week, there is a strong signal for troughing and moderate to strong mid-level flow across the northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest. Several days of substantial severe weather are possible during this period. However, at this time, the timing and amplitude of these features make it challenging to highlight specific areas. As the evolution of this mid-level pattern becomes more clear, severe weather probabilities may be added in later outlooks.

..Bentley.. 06/21/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Thursday, June 25

Outlook Images

any severe 15%

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, June 24	15%
Day 5	Thursday, June 25	15%
Day 6	Friday, June 26	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, June 27	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, June 28	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210811 SPC AC 210811

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday - Central High Plains

As high pressure builds into the central/northern Plains on Wednesday and Thursday, upslope flow will remain persistent across eastern Colorado and eastern Wyoming. Moderate to strong instability is expected in this area with 40 to 50 knots of west-northwesterly flow aloft. This should result in a favorable upslope regime capable of supercells. A relatively narrow unstable corridor should keep the most favorable severe threat somewhat confined to the higher elevation prairies where instability and upslope flow will be maximized.

Friday and Saturday, ridging is forecast to translate east across the Plains, which may lead to a relative lull in severe weather threat. However, by Sunday and into early next week, there is a strong signal for troughing and moderate to strong mid-level flow across the northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest. Several days of substantial severe weather are possible during this period. However, at this time, the timing and amplitude of these features make it challenging to highlight specific areas. As the evolution of this mid-level pattern becomes more clear, severe weather probabilities may be added in later outlooks.

..Bentley.. 06/21/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Friday, June 26

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, June 24	15%
Day 5	Thursday, June 25	15%
Day 6	Friday, June 26	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, June 27	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, June 28	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210811 SPC AC 210811

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday - Central High Plains

As high pressure builds into the central/northern Plains on Wednesday and Thursday, upslope flow will remain persistent across eastern Colorado and eastern Wyoming. Moderate to strong instability is expected in this area with 40 to 50 knots of west-northwesterly flow aloft. This should result in a favorable upslope regime capable of supercells. A relatively narrow unstable corridor should keep the most favorable severe threat somewhat confined to the higher elevation prairies where instability and upslope flow will be maximized.

Friday and Saturday, ridging is forecast to translate east across the Plains, which may lead to a relative lull in severe weather threat. However, by Sunday and into early next week, there is a strong signal for troughing and moderate to strong mid-level flow across the northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest. Several days of substantial severe weather are possible during this period. However, at this time, the timing and amplitude of these features make it challenging to highlight specific areas. As the evolution of this mid-level pattern becomes more clear, severe weather probabilities may be added in later outlooks.

..Bentley.. 06/21/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Saturday, June 27

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, June 24	15%
Day 5	Thursday, June 25	15%
Day 6	Friday, June 26	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, June 27	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, June 28	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210811 SPC AC 210811

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday - Central High Plains

As high pressure builds into the central/northern Plains on Wednesday and Thursday, upslope flow will remain persistent across eastern Colorado and eastern Wyoming. Moderate to strong instability is expected in this area with 40 to 50 knots of west-northwesterly flow aloft. This should result in a favorable upslope regime capable of supercells. A relatively narrow unstable corridor should keep the most favorable severe threat somewhat confined to the higher elevation prairies where instability and upslope flow will be maximized.

Friday and Saturday, ridging is forecast to translate east across the Plains, which may lead to a relative lull in severe weather threat. However, by Sunday and into early next week, there is a strong signal for troughing and moderate to strong mid-level flow across the northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest. Several days of substantial severe weather are possible during this period. However, at this time, the timing and amplitude of these features make it challenging to highlight specific areas. As the evolution of this mid-level pattern becomes more clear, severe weather probabilities may be added in later outlooks.

..Bentley.. 06/21/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Sunday, June 28

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, June 24	15%
Day 5	Thursday, June 25	15%
Day 6	Friday, June 26	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, June 27	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, June 28	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210811 SPC AC 210811

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday - Central High Plains

As high pressure builds into the central/northern Plains on Wednesday and Thursday, upslope flow will remain persistent across eastern Colorado and eastern Wyoming. Moderate to strong instability is expected in this area with 40 to 50 knots of west-northwesterly flow aloft. This should result in a favorable upslope regime capable of supercells. A relatively narrow unstable corridor should keep the most favorable severe threat somewhat confined to the higher elevation prairies where instability and upslope flow will be maximized.

Friday and Saturday, ridging is forecast to translate east across the Plains, which may lead to a relative lull in severe weather threat. However, by Sunday and into early next week, there is a strong signal for troughing and moderate to strong mid-level flow across the northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest. Several days of substantial severe weather are possible during this period. However, at this time, the timing and amplitude of these features make it challenging to highlight specific areas. As the evolution of this mid-level pattern becomes more clear, severe weather probabilities may be added in later outlooks.

..Bentley.. 06/21/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

National Risk Overview

Sunday, June 21: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 30%
Monday, June 22: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Tuesday, June 23: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Wednesday, June 24: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Thursday, June 25: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Friday, June 26: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, June 27: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, June 28: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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