Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, September 12
Outlook Summary
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail and severe/damaging winds may occur across parts of the south-central Plains into the Ozarks this afternoon and evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 122000
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026
Valid 122000Z - 131200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail and severe/damaging winds may occur across parts of the south-central Plains into the Ozarks this afternoon and evening.
20Z Update
The SLGT Risk in the central/southern Plains was expanded southwestward across parts of western OK. Here, visible satellite imagery shows increasingly agitated boundary-layer cumulus and isolated convective initiation along the western portion of a remnant outflow boundary. Temperatures in the 102-104F range along/south of the wind shift will support scattered severe wind gusts with any clusters that evolve. Additionally, the 15-percent hail probabilities were expanded westward into parts of southwest KS and northwest OK. Given steep midlevel lapse rates accompanying an EML (sampled by the 18Z DDC sounding), initial semi-discrete supercells should pose a risk of scattered severe hail before clustering occurs. Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track and minimal changes were needed.
..Weinman.. 09/12/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1135 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026/
Central/Southern Plains to the Ozarks
Scattered mainly elevated thunderstorms continue at midday across the region, including the strongest/occasionally-severe storms across southeast Nebraska into northeast Kansas that are occurring near/just behind a southeastward-moving cold front. Some severe hail will remain possible as these storms continue southeastward on the edge of the primary instability reservoir.
This front, augmented by early day outflows, will otherwise serve as a focus for more robust thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening as well. With a rather moist low-level airmass forecast to be present along/south of the front, current expectations are for a narrow zone of moderate to strong instability (MLCAPE 2000-3500 J/kg) to develop this afternoon from the eastern Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Weak low-level winds will veer to west-northwesterly and strengthen some with height through mid/upper levels, supporting around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear and updraft organization. While large-scale ascent will remain fairly weak/nebulous across the southern/central Plains, most guidance shows at least isolated robust thunderstorm development along the front by 21-23Z as convective temperatures are reached.
Any sustained supercells would pose a threat for large to very large hail, with steep mid-level lapse rates and ample instability in the hail-growth zone supporting potential for 2+ inch diameter hail on an isolated basis. Somewhat higher-based convection is expected from the eastern Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles into southwest/south-central Kansas and northern Oklahoma, where a very well-mixed boundary layer with steep low/mid-level lapse rates will promote an environment that supports severe-caliber downdraft winds. Some gusts could exceed 75 mph. A degree of storm clustering could occur into this evening.
Upper Ohio Valley
A regional pocket of relatively cloud-free skies at midday will contribute to filtered diurnal heating and moderate instability across the region. Thunderstorms will further increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon, aided by forcing for ascent associated with an approaching weak mid-level shortwave trough. While mid-level lapse rates will remain poor, sufficient deep-layer shear coupled with modest steepening of low-level lapse rates suggest some risk for occasional damaging winds with any loosely organized clusters/line segments that develop.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Sunday, September 13
Outlook Summary
Scattered strong storms accompanied by small to marginally severe hail and potential for locally damaging wind gusts may impact parts of the Northeast through upper Ohio Valley Sunday afternoon and evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 121658
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST
### SUMMARY
Scattered strong storms accompanied by small to marginally severe hail and potential for locally damaging wind gusts may impact parts of the Northeast through upper Ohio Valley Sunday afternoon and evening.
Ohio Valley to the Northeast
A mid-level shortwave trough will amplify as it moves from the Upper Midwest to the eastern Great Lakes on Sunday. A primary surface low will move across Quebec with a cold front extending into the eastern Great Lakes. In addition, a lee trough will develop east of the Appalachians with weak surface low development along the coast.
A large area of showers and embedded thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across the Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast. West of this activity, modest heating and mid 60s dewpoints will support weak to potentially moderate instability. This instability, combined with moderate to strong deep-layer shear will support the potential for strong to severe storms. However, storm coverage remains uncertain. A warm nose around 2km should limit storm development away from the front. Even along the front, storm coverage/intensity remains uncertain. Convergence will not be that strong as the surface low-develops along the coast. Therefore, a conditional severe weather environment remains from the Ohio Valley to the Northeast, but concerns with storm coverage preclude anything more than a Marginal Risk at this time.
Central High Plains
Lee troughing will strengthen across the central Plains Sunday afternoon. As this occurs, upslope flow will strengthen across eastern Wyoming and vicinity. A cluster of storms will likely develop during the evening and move across South Dakota during the overnight period. Marginal instability will likely preclude any severe weather potential with this activity.
North-central Montana
A mid-level jet streak will eject northeast from the base of a mid-level trough across the Northwest and overspread western Montana. Showers and a few thunderstorms will develop across western Montana during the afternoon and evening amid modest surface heating. Strong flow above 3km may occasionally mix to the surface with some gusty winds. If greater heating/instability can develop, an isolated severe wind threat may be possible with the strongest storms.
..Bentley.. 09/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Monday, September 14
Outlook Summary
Strong thunderstorm development, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather, appears possible across parts of the central Great Plains into Upper Midwest late Monday through Monday night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 121912
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA
### SUMMARY
Strong thunderstorm development, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather, appears possible across parts of the central Great Plains into Upper Midwest late Monday through Monday night.
Discussion
A mid-level trough will move across the northern Plains on Monday with a strengthening 60-70 knot mid-level jet streak. The surface pattern will feature a surface low across the Canadian Prairies and a secondary weaker surface low across the central Plains. A moist airmass will advect northward to the east of the surface trough with mid to upper 60s dewpoints advecting into Nebraska and Iowa.
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across eastern South Dakota and Minnesota amid moderate isentropic ascent. The primary forecast concern for Monday will be northward progression of the surface boundary across eastern Nebraska and Iowa. Guidance varies with the northward recovery in the wake of morning activity, but forecast soundings in regions where this recovery does occur show a conditional supercell environment with the threat for all severe weather hazards.
Given the influence of morning convection, the exact location of the greatest threat will likely shift in the coming days. However, given that most guidance showed a convective signal aligned with a conditionally favorable supercell environment in the vicinity of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, added a small Slight Risk across this region to account for this threat.
An elevated hail threat may persist into Monday evening farther northeast given a strong low-level jet and moderate elevated instability. Some surface based storm threat could continue into the overnight hours along the boundary, but most guidance shows storms north of the boundary during the overnight period.
Storms will likely form within the well-mixed environment across eastern Colorado and western Kansas Monday afternoon. Weak shear should limit storm organization, but strong heating and steep lapse rates may support isolated severe wind gusts.
..Bentley.. 09/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Tuesday, September 15
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, September 15 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, September 16 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, September 17 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, September 18 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, September 19 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120841 SPC AC 120841
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
In the wake of a vigorous short wave perturbation and associated surface cyclone accelerating northeast of the upper Great Lakes into the higher latitudes, a lingering near-surface frontal zone across the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into the central Great Plains may provide a focus for occasional thunderstorm development into the middle to latter portion of next week. However, this may largely remain beneath the northern periphery of initially prominent mid/upper ridging slowly beginning to retrograde from the Southeast toward the Southwestern international border area. Forcing for ascent and destabilization may not support more than rather isolated and/or marginal severe thunderstorm potential, and even latest available AI guidance generally suggests that this limited potential will wane by late week into next weekend.
..Kerr.. 09/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, September 16
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, September 15 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, September 16 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, September 17 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, September 18 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, September 19 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120841 SPC AC 120841
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
In the wake of a vigorous short wave perturbation and associated surface cyclone accelerating northeast of the upper Great Lakes into the higher latitudes, a lingering near-surface frontal zone across the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into the central Great Plains may provide a focus for occasional thunderstorm development into the middle to latter portion of next week. However, this may largely remain beneath the northern periphery of initially prominent mid/upper ridging slowly beginning to retrograde from the Southeast toward the Southwestern international border area. Forcing for ascent and destabilization may not support more than rather isolated and/or marginal severe thunderstorm potential, and even latest available AI guidance generally suggests that this limited potential will wane by late week into next weekend.
..Kerr.. 09/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, September 17
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, September 15 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, September 16 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, September 17 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, September 18 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, September 19 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120841 SPC AC 120841
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
In the wake of a vigorous short wave perturbation and associated surface cyclone accelerating northeast of the upper Great Lakes into the higher latitudes, a lingering near-surface frontal zone across the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into the central Great Plains may provide a focus for occasional thunderstorm development into the middle to latter portion of next week. However, this may largely remain beneath the northern periphery of initially prominent mid/upper ridging slowly beginning to retrograde from the Southeast toward the Southwestern international border area. Forcing for ascent and destabilization may not support more than rather isolated and/or marginal severe thunderstorm potential, and even latest available AI guidance generally suggests that this limited potential will wane by late week into next weekend.
..Kerr.. 09/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, September 18
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, September 15 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, September 16 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, September 17 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, September 18 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, September 19 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120841 SPC AC 120841
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
In the wake of a vigorous short wave perturbation and associated surface cyclone accelerating northeast of the upper Great Lakes into the higher latitudes, a lingering near-surface frontal zone across the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into the central Great Plains may provide a focus for occasional thunderstorm development into the middle to latter portion of next week. However, this may largely remain beneath the northern periphery of initially prominent mid/upper ridging slowly beginning to retrograde from the Southeast toward the Southwestern international border area. Forcing for ascent and destabilization may not support more than rather isolated and/or marginal severe thunderstorm potential, and even latest available AI guidance generally suggests that this limited potential will wane by late week into next weekend.
..Kerr.. 09/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, September 19
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, September 15 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, September 16 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, September 17 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, September 18 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, September 19 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120841 SPC AC 120841
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
In the wake of a vigorous short wave perturbation and associated surface cyclone accelerating northeast of the upper Great Lakes into the higher latitudes, a lingering near-surface frontal zone across the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into the central Great Plains may provide a focus for occasional thunderstorm development into the middle to latter portion of next week. However, this may largely remain beneath the northern periphery of initially prominent mid/upper ridging slowly beginning to retrograde from the Southeast toward the Southwestern international border area. Forcing for ascent and destabilization may not support more than rather isolated and/or marginal severe thunderstorm potential, and even latest available AI guidance generally suggests that this limited potential will wane by late week into next weekend.
..Kerr.. 09/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, September 12
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Sunday, September 13
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Monday, September 14
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Tuesday, September 15
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, September 16
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, September 17
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, September 18
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, September 19
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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