Severe Weather Outlook

show me my personal outlook →

Hayley here - Do you want to see severe weather in your calendar?

* it's like an add-on for your digital calendar NOT a paper calendar

National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Thursday, July 2

Friday, July 3

Saturday, July 4

Sunday, July 5

Monday, July 6

Tuesday, July 7

Wednesday, July 8

Thursday, July 9

Outlook for Thursday, July 2

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe storms are still possible from the northern Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes regions this evening. More isolated severe storms will be possible across the Central High Plains.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 30%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 030045

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

Valid 030100Z - 031200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND EXTREME NORTHWEST IOWA

### THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN KANSAS

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe storms are still possible from the northern Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes regions this evening. More isolated severe storms will be possible across the Central High Plains.

High Plains into the Midwest

Several clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing across portions of the Dakotas into northern Iowa and southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois. Across the western Dakotas, clusters of multi-cell and supercells are ongoing. Given moderate instability and some supercellular modes, large hail to very large hail and damaging wind will continue to be a threat through the evening. Additional thunderstorms may move out of Montana and or southern Canada through the evening with additional chances for large hail and damaging wind.

A cluster across southeastern South Dakota moving into Minnesota/Iowa has a history of producing significant gusts 90-100 mph. More recent observations have been around 60-70 mph. It is likely that the damaging wind potential will continue downstream for the next couple of hours, with potential for additional development along the trailing outflow into northern Nebraska later this evening. The 00z sounding from OAX sampled a large cape profile with steep low to mid-level lapse rates.Confidence in exact evolution remains low but some CAM guidance does suggest a secondary MCS structure may move eastward later this evening across northern Iowa. Given the large MLCAPE gradient extending across southern South Dakota into northern Iowa and a continued reservoir of steep low to mid-level lapse rates, this may pose additional potential for damaging wind through the evening.

Central High Plains

A few isolated supercells are ongoing across portions of eastern Colorado, southern Nebraska, and western Kansas. These have had occasional stronger MESH cores around 2 inches. The 00z sounding from DDC sampled strong instability and steep low to mid-level lapse rates amid large dew point depressions within the near surface profile. Given strong deep layer shear, inverted v soundings, and moderate to strong instability, these supercells will continue to pose a risk for large to very large hail and severe wind.

Northeast

A line of thunderstorms is sagging southward out of Quebec. These may pose some potential for a few instances of strong to severe wind through the evening. See MCD#1455 for more information.

..Thornton.. 07/03/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

← back to overview

Outlook for Friday, July 3

Outlook Summary

Scattered wind damage and large hail are expected from parts of Nebraska into Iowa Friday. Isolated to scattered severe storms are also possible extending eastward from the northern/central Plains into the Midwest, Tennessee Valley, and Mid-Atlantic.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 30%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 021717

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA

### SUMMARY

Scattered wind damage and large hail are expected from parts of Nebraska into Iowa Friday. Isolated to scattered severe storms are also possible extending eastward from the northern/central Plains into the Midwest, Tennessee Valley, and Mid-Atlantic.

Synopsis

An upper high will remain over the Appalachians and Carolinas, with a somewhat weaker ridge aloft extending westward into the southern Rockies. Relatively cool midlevel temperatures will generally stretch from the northern Plains and across much of the Great Lakes an Northeast, as modest mid and high level westerlies persist. In the low levels, substantial moisture and instability will persist across those same areas, as south to southwest surface winds maintain 70s F dewpoints around the northern periphery of a southeast U.S. surface high. An east-west oriented boundary will stretch from the northern Plains eastward across the Great Lakes region, with various clusters of thunderstorms throughout the period within this unstable zone.

Northern/Central Plains

Any outflows from overnight convection are likely to mix, with strong instability developing. Cells will form over the northern High Plains initially with localized hail and wind. Larger coverage of storms will occur from southern SD into northern NE during the mid/late afternoon, with general upscale growth into one or more MCSs. However, supercells may occur initially with large hail and a brief tornado. Supporting a severe MCS will be ample precipitable water, strong instability, and an increasing southerly low-level jet during the evening. Additional isolated hail or wind may occur near the surface trough into western KS and toward the TX Panhandle where temperatures will be hot.

Much of the Midwest to the Lower Great Lakes and across NY, PA and NJ

The entire corridor stretching from northern IL/southern WI into NY and NJ will destabilize with daytime heating and robust moisture. Storms are most likely from WI/IL during the late afternoon, and also near the Lower Great Lakes, affecting OH, PA, NY. Modest westerlies aloft and the uncapped air mass across the area will support a few longer-lived clusters of storms capable of damaging wind gusts. Some of the activity may proceed into western New England into early evening.

TN Valley and northern GA

Within the weak easterly flow regime aloft, just south of the upper ridge, storms are expected to form during the afternoon with the very moist and unstable air mass. Mid 70s F dewpoints will again lead to strong instability, with multicell clusters moving west/northwest by mid/early afternoon. Locally damaging wind gusts are possible.

..Jewell.. 07/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

← back to overview

Outlook for Saturday, July 4

Outlook Summary

Scattered storms will be possible from the central Plains into the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic this Fourth of July (Saturday). The greatest concentration of strong to severe storms will be within portions of the Mid-Atlantic, and over parts of the central Plains late.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 021920

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS…AND FROM EASTERN OHIO/WEST VIRGINIA EASTWARD ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR

### SUMMARY

Scattered storms will be possible from the central Plains into the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic this Fourth of July (Saturday). The greatest concentration of strong to severe storms will be within portions of the Mid-Atlantic, and over parts of the central Plains late.

Parts of the Mid Atlantic

Stronger mid to high level winds exist over the Northeast, though 30 kt at 500 mb will extend as far south as Maryland. A surface trough will deepen during the day near the I-90 corridor, where 70s F dewpoints will contribute to moderate instability. Storms may develop both within the instability plume from OH into PA, and within the heated surface trough from VA into PA/NJ. Strong wind gusts will be common, with some severe/damaging gusts likely late afternoon through early evening during peak heating.

Central High Plains

Scattered strong to severe storms may develop near the Front Range as surface winds back to easterly late in the day. This will bring moisture westward toward the higher terrain, with most models showing a few cells developing late afternoon with localized hail and wind potential. Good direction shear and steep lapse rates aloft will favor large hail. Storms may then persist into western NE and KS, with potential areas of severe wind gusts.

..Jewell.. 07/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

← back to overview

Outlook for Sunday, July 5

Outlook Images

any severe 15%

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, July 5	15%
Day 5	Monday, July 6	predictability too low
Day 6	Tuesday, July 7	predictability too low
Day 7	Wednesday, July 8	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, July 9	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020855 SPC AC 020855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

DISCUSSION

Model trends have been for the upper ridge to amplify less in the West than in previous cycles. This will allow southwesterly mid-level winds to persist longer in the Intermountain region. In the East, a shortwave trough will approach the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Sunday before cyclonic flow remains in the regions through the middle of the following week. Upper ridging will stay within the central CONUS before flattening as a couple of shortwave troughs move over the northern tier states. Moderate to strong buoyancy is expected to remain south a stalled surface boundary in the Southeast. The cyclonic flow in the West will eventually bring moisture farther northwest into the High Plains. While predictability is generally low, at least localized severe potential will exist near the surface boundaries and any MCVs that may be present. High Plains thunderstorms are also possible. Where greater shear/lift exists with the western shortwave troughs, severe potential could increase.

Mid-Atlantic

With the approach of modest mid-level height falls on Sunday, storm coverage will likely increase from Saturday both along the stalled surface front and within the Blue Ridge. Given a similar environment to Saturday, a 15% severe risk was added. Damaging wind gusts are likely the primary hazard.

..Wendt.. 07/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Monday, July 6

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, July 5	15%
Day 5	Monday, July 6	predictability too low
Day 6	Tuesday, July 7	predictability too low
Day 7	Wednesday, July 8	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, July 9	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020855 SPC AC 020855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

DISCUSSION

Model trends have been for the upper ridge to amplify less in the West than in previous cycles. This will allow southwesterly mid-level winds to persist longer in the Intermountain region. In the East, a shortwave trough will approach the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Sunday before cyclonic flow remains in the regions through the middle of the following week. Upper ridging will stay within the central CONUS before flattening as a couple of shortwave troughs move over the northern tier states. Moderate to strong buoyancy is expected to remain south a stalled surface boundary in the Southeast. The cyclonic flow in the West will eventually bring moisture farther northwest into the High Plains. While predictability is generally low, at least localized severe potential will exist near the surface boundaries and any MCVs that may be present. High Plains thunderstorms are also possible. Where greater shear/lift exists with the western shortwave troughs, severe potential could increase.

Mid-Atlantic

With the approach of modest mid-level height falls on Sunday, storm coverage will likely increase from Saturday both along the stalled surface front and within the Blue Ridge. Given a similar environment to Saturday, a 15% severe risk was added. Damaging wind gusts are likely the primary hazard.

..Wendt.. 07/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Tuesday, July 7

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, July 5	15%
Day 5	Monday, July 6	predictability too low
Day 6	Tuesday, July 7	predictability too low
Day 7	Wednesday, July 8	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, July 9	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020855 SPC AC 020855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

DISCUSSION

Model trends have been for the upper ridge to amplify less in the West than in previous cycles. This will allow southwesterly mid-level winds to persist longer in the Intermountain region. In the East, a shortwave trough will approach the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Sunday before cyclonic flow remains in the regions through the middle of the following week. Upper ridging will stay within the central CONUS before flattening as a couple of shortwave troughs move over the northern tier states. Moderate to strong buoyancy is expected to remain south a stalled surface boundary in the Southeast. The cyclonic flow in the West will eventually bring moisture farther northwest into the High Plains. While predictability is generally low, at least localized severe potential will exist near the surface boundaries and any MCVs that may be present. High Plains thunderstorms are also possible. Where greater shear/lift exists with the western shortwave troughs, severe potential could increase.

Mid-Atlantic

With the approach of modest mid-level height falls on Sunday, storm coverage will likely increase from Saturday both along the stalled surface front and within the Blue Ridge. Given a similar environment to Saturday, a 15% severe risk was added. Damaging wind gusts are likely the primary hazard.

..Wendt.. 07/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Wednesday, July 8

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, July 5	15%
Day 5	Monday, July 6	predictability too low
Day 6	Tuesday, July 7	predictability too low
Day 7	Wednesday, July 8	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, July 9	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020855 SPC AC 020855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

DISCUSSION

Model trends have been for the upper ridge to amplify less in the West than in previous cycles. This will allow southwesterly mid-level winds to persist longer in the Intermountain region. In the East, a shortwave trough will approach the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Sunday before cyclonic flow remains in the regions through the middle of the following week. Upper ridging will stay within the central CONUS before flattening as a couple of shortwave troughs move over the northern tier states. Moderate to strong buoyancy is expected to remain south a stalled surface boundary in the Southeast. The cyclonic flow in the West will eventually bring moisture farther northwest into the High Plains. While predictability is generally low, at least localized severe potential will exist near the surface boundaries and any MCVs that may be present. High Plains thunderstorms are also possible. Where greater shear/lift exists with the western shortwave troughs, severe potential could increase.

Mid-Atlantic

With the approach of modest mid-level height falls on Sunday, storm coverage will likely increase from Saturday both along the stalled surface front and within the Blue Ridge. Given a similar environment to Saturday, a 15% severe risk was added. Damaging wind gusts are likely the primary hazard.

..Wendt.. 07/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Thursday, July 9

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, July 5	15%
Day 5	Monday, July 6	predictability too low
Day 6	Tuesday, July 7	predictability too low
Day 7	Wednesday, July 8	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, July 9	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020855 SPC AC 020855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

DISCUSSION

Model trends have been for the upper ridge to amplify less in the West than in previous cycles. This will allow southwesterly mid-level winds to persist longer in the Intermountain region. In the East, a shortwave trough will approach the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Sunday before cyclonic flow remains in the regions through the middle of the following week. Upper ridging will stay within the central CONUS before flattening as a couple of shortwave troughs move over the northern tier states. Moderate to strong buoyancy is expected to remain south a stalled surface boundary in the Southeast. The cyclonic flow in the West will eventually bring moisture farther northwest into the High Plains. While predictability is generally low, at least localized severe potential will exist near the surface boundaries and any MCVs that may be present. High Plains thunderstorms are also possible. Where greater shear/lift exists with the western shortwave troughs, severe potential could increase.

Mid-Atlantic

With the approach of modest mid-level height falls on Sunday, storm coverage will likely increase from Saturday both along the stalled surface front and within the Blue Ridge. Given a similar environment to Saturday, a 15% severe risk was added. Damaging wind gusts are likely the primary hazard.

..Wendt.. 07/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

National Risk Overview

Thursday, July 2: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 30%
Friday, July 3: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 30%
Saturday, July 4: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Sunday, July 5: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Monday, July 6: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, July 7: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, July 8: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, July 9: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Your Severe Outlook

Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.

Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.

Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.

Severe Weather Outlook Amazon link →

About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.