Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, May 30
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and evening over the central Great Plains. The stronger thunderstorms will potentially be capable of severe gusts (some possibly exceeding 75 mph), large hail, and a couple of tornadoes.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 30%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 301956
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026
Valid 302000Z - 311200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and evening over the central Great Plains. The stronger thunderstorms will potentially be capable of severe gusts (some possibly exceeding 75 mph), large hail, and a couple of tornadoes.
20Z Update
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with mainly minor changes made to general thunderstorm and severe hazards probabilities to account for observations and the latest guidance consensus. There still appears to be a window of opportunity for initially discrete storms, accompanied by a severe hail/isolated tornado threat to grow upscale into one or more MCSs across southern NE into KS this afternoon and early evening. Latest guidance and observations continue to show 9 C/km mid-level lapse rates (per the 18Z DDC observed sounding) and forecast 4000+ J/kg MLCAPE via deep-wide buoyancy profiles (per latest NAM/RAP forecast soundings) centered over central KS. As such, swaths of severe winds (with some gusts potentially well exceeding 75 mph) are expected before the MCSs propagate into an increasingly stable airmass later this evening.
..Squitieri.. 05/30/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026/
Central KS into OK
A negatively-tilted upper trough will rotate northeastward across the central High Plains region today, with a 40-50 knot mid level jet moving into the region. Southerly/southeasterly low-level winds in the warm sector of a surface low over eastern CO will maintain a zone of high dewpoints and very unstable air mass across much of central KS and northern OK. This region will be most favorable for severe storms this afternoon and evening, with damaging winds being the primary concern.
Thunderstorms will initially form along a diffuse dryline from southwest KS southward along the TX/OK border. Temperatures approaching 100F will result in a deeply mixed boundary-layer, promoting strong outflow winds despite vertical shear profiles that favor supercell structures. As this activity spreads northeastward through the high CAPE zone, large hail and damaging winds will remain the primary concern, but a tornado or two will also be possible in any storms that can maintain discrete mode. Activity should weaken by mid-evening as they move into a more stable environment over eastern NE/southwest IA/northwest MO.
Northeast CO/NE Panhandle
Easterly surface winds on the north side of the aforementioned surface low have advected low-level moisture westward into the northern foothills of CO. Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to form in this region, as well as the along the DCVZ and near the dryline over northwest KS. All of this activity will build northeastward through the afternoon/evening with a combination of supercell and bowing structures capable of damaging winds, hail, and perhaps a tornado or two. These storms may remain at least occasionally severe into central SD before weakening tonight.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Sunday, May 31
Outlook Summary
A few strong to locally severe storms are possible across the central U.S. on Sunday, from the Dakotas into the Ozarks, and across southwest Texas.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 301733
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO THE OZARKS…AND INTO PARTS OF WESTERN TEXAS
### SUMMARY
A few strong to locally severe storms are possible across the central U.S. on Sunday, from the Dakotas into the Ozarks, and across southwest Texas.
Synopsis
A weak negatively tilted shortwave trough will move northward across the northern Rockies and Plains on Sunday, with cool midlevel temperatures. Mid to high level winds of 30 to 60 kt will stretch from CO into KS and NE, behind the upper wave. This will also result in midlevel drying across the central Plains.
A surface trough is generally forecast to exist along the length of the High Plains, with low pressure centers over SD and western TX during the afternoon. High pressure will exist from the Great Lakes to the East Coast with an upper trough over the Northeast, and southerly surface winds will maintain low-level moisture west of this surface high from the lower MS Valley northwestward across the MO Valley.
Dakotas southeastward into AR
Storms may be ongoing over southern MO or northern AR Sunday morning, with southwest low-level flow/warm advection supporting continued unstable inflow. Conditionally, an MCS is possible, with potential to persist southeastward into AR and perhaps even MS later in the day. This is a bit uncertain, but locally severe gusts would be possible.
Farther north, scattered daytime storms are likely beneath the upper wave from central SD into ND. Temperatures aloft will be cool and may support hail despite weak shear.
To the south, diurnal storms appear most likely from eastern KS into western MO late in the afternoon and into the evening as moderate to strong instability develops. Some of this may depend on how much early day activity occurs, and if any outflow boundaries exist. Conditionally, a couple supercells cannot be ruled out with hail and brief tornado risk.
OK into western TX
Strong heating will occur along a dryline extending roughly from north-central OK into northwest TX. Weak surface convergence, 60s F dewpoints and a narrow corridor of weak inhibition may yield isolated thunderstorms by late afternoon. These storms would likely be brief, but could yield locally strong gusts or marginal hail.
Farther south, storm coverage will be greater into southwest TX, where southeast surface winds will maintain moisture flux into the area during the afternoon. Scattered storms are likely here, with locally strong outflow winds and perhaps marginal hail.
..Jewell.. 05/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Monday, June 1
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with scattered severe wind gusts and large hail will be possible Monday from eastern Colorado into Kansas, with mainly damaging wind potential from the mid and lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 301933
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO KANSAS
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with scattered severe wind gusts and large hail will be possible Monday from eastern Colorado into Kansas, with mainly damaging wind potential from the mid and lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley.
Central Plains
An upper low will remain situated over the northwestern states on Monday, with various disturbances rotating into WY with glancing influence into CO. At the surface, low pressure is forecast to develop over southeast Co with strongly backed/easterly low-level winds north of the low across much of NE, KS and into eastern CO. These easterly winds will maintain 50s F dewpoints into CO, where strong heating and upslope flow should aid development near the Front Range during the afternoon. Large hail will be likely with the initial cells, with steep lapse rates aloft and 35+ kt deep-layer shear aiding supercell development. With time, cells may cluster/increase in coverage, with a severe MCS possible into KS with damaging winds. Any such system also be supported by a 30-40 kt low-level jet during the evening.
Mid to Lower MS and TN Valleys
A northwest flow regime aloft will exist across the MS and TN Valleys on Monday as an upper trough amplifies over the Northeast. A very moist air mass will already be in place, with potential for early day thunderstorms as well. Timing for severe is a bit uncertain due to possible ongoing activity Monday morning over southern MO and vicinity. If this occurs, the primary severe threat would likely evolve from that activity as the outflow proceeds southeastward across the moist/unstable air mass. Otherwise, new activity will be possible within the zone from the Mid MS/Lower OH Valley southeastward across the TN and lower MS Valley with daytime heating. MUCAPE over 3000 J/kg and steepening low-level lapse rates will favor forward propagation and widespread strong to locally severe wind gusts.
..Jewell.. 05/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Tuesday, June 2
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, June 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, June 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, June 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, June 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, June 6 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300842 SPC AC 300842
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6
At mid-levels, a ridge is forecast to move slowly eastward from the upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday to the northeastern U.S. by Thursday. During that time, a shortwave trough is forecast to move slowly eastward across the north-central U.S. Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the trough each afternoon and evening. The greatest severe threat is currently expected in the Dakotas on Tuesday and Wednesday, and in the upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday. Regarding the spatial extent of any severe threat, some uncertainty exists concerning the timing of the trough and the location of maximum instability.
Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8
Multiple shortwave troughs are forecast to move across the central U.S. on Friday and Saturday. During this time, moisture and instability is forecast to be maximized in the Great Plains. As surface temperatures heat up each day, thunderstorm development and potentially an isolated severe threat will be possible across a relatively broad moist sector. Concerning predictability, the convoluted pattern introduces considerable uncertainty as to where the greatest severe threat will be.
..Broyles.. 05/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, June 3
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, June 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, June 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, June 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, June 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, June 6 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300842 SPC AC 300842
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6
At mid-levels, a ridge is forecast to move slowly eastward from the upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday to the northeastern U.S. by Thursday. During that time, a shortwave trough is forecast to move slowly eastward across the north-central U.S. Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the trough each afternoon and evening. The greatest severe threat is currently expected in the Dakotas on Tuesday and Wednesday, and in the upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday. Regarding the spatial extent of any severe threat, some uncertainty exists concerning the timing of the trough and the location of maximum instability.
Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8
Multiple shortwave troughs are forecast to move across the central U.S. on Friday and Saturday. During this time, moisture and instability is forecast to be maximized in the Great Plains. As surface temperatures heat up each day, thunderstorm development and potentially an isolated severe threat will be possible across a relatively broad moist sector. Concerning predictability, the convoluted pattern introduces considerable uncertainty as to where the greatest severe threat will be.
..Broyles.. 05/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, June 4
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, June 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, June 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, June 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, June 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, June 6 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300842 SPC AC 300842
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6
At mid-levels, a ridge is forecast to move slowly eastward from the upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday to the northeastern U.S. by Thursday. During that time, a shortwave trough is forecast to move slowly eastward across the north-central U.S. Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the trough each afternoon and evening. The greatest severe threat is currently expected in the Dakotas on Tuesday and Wednesday, and in the upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday. Regarding the spatial extent of any severe threat, some uncertainty exists concerning the timing of the trough and the location of maximum instability.
Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8
Multiple shortwave troughs are forecast to move across the central U.S. on Friday and Saturday. During this time, moisture and instability is forecast to be maximized in the Great Plains. As surface temperatures heat up each day, thunderstorm development and potentially an isolated severe threat will be possible across a relatively broad moist sector. Concerning predictability, the convoluted pattern introduces considerable uncertainty as to where the greatest severe threat will be.
..Broyles.. 05/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, June 5
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, June 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, June 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, June 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, June 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, June 6 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300842 SPC AC 300842
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6
At mid-levels, a ridge is forecast to move slowly eastward from the upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday to the northeastern U.S. by Thursday. During that time, a shortwave trough is forecast to move slowly eastward across the north-central U.S. Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the trough each afternoon and evening. The greatest severe threat is currently expected in the Dakotas on Tuesday and Wednesday, and in the upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday. Regarding the spatial extent of any severe threat, some uncertainty exists concerning the timing of the trough and the location of maximum instability.
Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8
Multiple shortwave troughs are forecast to move across the central U.S. on Friday and Saturday. During this time, moisture and instability is forecast to be maximized in the Great Plains. As surface temperatures heat up each day, thunderstorm development and potentially an isolated severe threat will be possible across a relatively broad moist sector. Concerning predictability, the convoluted pattern introduces considerable uncertainty as to where the greatest severe threat will be.
..Broyles.. 05/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, June 6
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, June 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, June 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, June 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, June 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, June 6 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300842 SPC AC 300842
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6
At mid-levels, a ridge is forecast to move slowly eastward from the upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday to the northeastern U.S. by Thursday. During that time, a shortwave trough is forecast to move slowly eastward across the north-central U.S. Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the trough each afternoon and evening. The greatest severe threat is currently expected in the Dakotas on Tuesday and Wednesday, and in the upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday. Regarding the spatial extent of any severe threat, some uncertainty exists concerning the timing of the trough and the location of maximum instability.
Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8
Multiple shortwave troughs are forecast to move across the central U.S. on Friday and Saturday. During this time, moisture and instability is forecast to be maximized in the Great Plains. As surface temperatures heat up each day, thunderstorm development and potentially an isolated severe threat will be possible across a relatively broad moist sector. Concerning predictability, the convoluted pattern introduces considerable uncertainty as to where the greatest severe threat will be.
..Broyles.. 05/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, May 30
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 30%
- Sunday, May 31
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Monday, June 1
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Tuesday, June 2
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, June 3
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, June 4
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, June 5
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, June 6
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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