Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Sunday, June 14

Monday, June 15

Tuesday, June 16

Wednesday, June 17

Thursday, June 18

Friday, June 19

Saturday, June 20

Sunday, June 21

Outlook for Sunday, June 14

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts are expected across the Mid-Atlantic vicinity during the afternoon and evening. Additional strong to severe storms are expected across the upper Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes area.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 30%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 140558

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN GEORGIA NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts are expected across the Mid-Atlantic vicinity during the afternoon and evening. Additional strong to severe storms are expected across the upper Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes area.

Synopsis

A broad large-scale trough and accompanying belt of strong midlevel west-southwesterly flow will move eastward from the Great Lakes/upper OH Valley region into the Northeast through the period. At the same time, a related cold front will advance eastward across the OH Valley during the afternoon, before reaching the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coast during the overnight hours.

Southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic

Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of the cold front during the afternoon, focused within a pre-frontal trough extending from the Mid-Atlantic southward into the lee of the southern Appalachians. From roughly southern/eastern VA southward, upper 60s to lower 70s dewpoints and steepening boundary-layer lapse rates will yield a corridor of strong surface-based buoyancy ahead of storms. Despite weaker deep-layer shear and limited midlevel height falls with southward extent, the strongly unstable air mass will favor eastward-moving thunderstorm clusters capable of producing damaging wind gusts. Over the Mid-Atlantic region, stronger midlevel westerly flow will contribute to 30-40 kt of effective shear amid moderate surface-based buoyancy. This environment will support several loosely organized clusters capable of scattered damaging wind gusts. Here, 30-percent wind probabilities remain in place, and while a locally higher concentration of wind damage will be possible with any longer-lived clusters that may evolve, this will be largely dependent on mesoscale factors.

Upper OH Valley into southern New England

Along the cold front, a broken band of thunderstorms will spread eastward from the lower Great Lakes into the upper OH Valley and southern New England during the afternoon into the evening hours. Stronger midlevel height falls and around 40 kt of front-parallel effective shear should favor a linear mode, with the primary concern being strong-severe wind gusts.

Southern High Plains

Along the tail-end of a composite cold front/outflow boundary extending westward into the southern Rockies/High Plains, widely scattered thunderstorms will spread southeastward during the afternoon. Given moist easterly low-level flow and 30-40 kt of effective shear along the boundary, a couple loosely organized storms will pose a risk of locally severe gusts and hail. Additional storms are expected along the boundary extending eastward across northern/central TX to the ArkLaTex, though weaker deep-layer shear should limit storm longevity/organization here.

..Weinman/Halbert.. 06/14/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Monday, June 15

Outlook Summary

Scattered thunderstorms over the southern Rockies may result in some severe potential as they move southeast during the afternoon and evening. Elsewhere, scattered thunderstorms are possible from the Gulf Coast states to the Carolinas, and across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind 5%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 140447

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NM…SOUTHEAST CO…AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES

### SUMMARY

Scattered thunderstorms over the southern Rockies may result in some severe potential as they move southeast during the afternoon and evening. Elsewhere, scattered thunderstorms are possible from the Gulf Coast states to the Carolinas, and across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest.

Synopsis

Broad, upper troughing will envelop much of the CONUS from the Rockies to the East Coast on Monday. A surface front will be oriented from the Mid-Atlantic coast southwestward across the Gulf Coast states and into central/southwest TX.

Southern Rockies/High Plains

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains in southeast CO/eastern NM and possibly as far east as western parts of the OK/TX Panhandles during the late afternoon and evening. A weak shortwave impulse is expected to move over the southern Rockies while southerly low-level flow results in modest northward moisture return within the post-frontal upslope flow regime. Southerly low-level flow increasing with height and becoming northwesterly above 700 mb will provide sufficient effective shear for some storm organization. High-based convection will pose a risk for strong outflow gusts, with some potential for a forward propagating cluster moving across eastern NM toward the Panhandles via cold pool/outflow interactions. Overall modest shear, weak instability and a lack of low-level jet development will limit overall severe potential, though a couple of severe storms will be possible.

Northern Plains/Upper Midwest

A shortwave impulse rotating across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest within broader upper troughing will support isolated to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms within a dry airmass. Some gusty winds could accompany this activity, but a dearth of boundary layer moisture and weak instability will preclude severe probabilities.

Southeast

Across the Southeast, a very moist airmass will be in place ahead of the southward sagging surface front. Poor lapse rates will limit stronger destabilization, but a belt of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE is possible across southern AL/GA into northern FL. Thunderstorm clusters could produce locally gusty winds, but organized severe potential will be limited by weak vertical shear, poor lapse rates, and little large-scale ascent.

..Leitman.. 06/14/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, June 16

Outlook Summary

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening across parts of the Midwest.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 140611

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST

### SUMMARY

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening across parts of the Midwest.

Midwest

An upper shortwave trough over the MO Valley will develop eastward across the Upper Great Lakes/Midwest on Tuesday. A stalled surface front across the Gulf Coast region will suppress boundary-layer moisture across the Midwest. Surface dewpoints are forecast to generally be in the mid 50s to low 60s amid steepening midlevel lapse rates. This will support MLCAPE up to 1500 J/kg across portions of the Mid-MS Valley to Lake Michigan vicinity. A weak surface low is forecast to move across WI/Lower MI and a trailing front will move across IL/IN and vicinity. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon. Sufficient shear will exist for organized storms, with 30-40 kt midlevel flow depicted in forecast soundings. Gusty winds and hail will be the main hazards with this activity during the afternoon and evening. Severe potential will diminish with eastward extent due to decreasing boundary layer moisture and weakening instability toward the Ohio Valley.

..Leitman.. 06/14/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, June 17

Outlook Images

any severe 30%

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, June 17	30%
Day 5	Thursday, June 18	15%
Day 6	Friday, June 19	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, June 20	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, June 21	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140744 SPC AC 140744

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Wednesday – Mid-MS and Ohio Valley vicinity

An upper shortwave trough is forecast to deepen as it moves across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes on Wednesday. As this occurs, an intense jet streak (especially by June standards) is forecast to overspread portions of the Midwest. The ECMWF and GFS suite of forecast guidance still is indicating a 500 mb jet streak greater than 80 kt overspreading the region by evening. Furthermore, low and midlevel flow will also be quite strong, with a daytime 850 mb low-level jet around 40-50 kt by mid/late afternoon.

At the surface, low pressure will deepen and move across the Upper MS Valley and Lower MI through the period. A warm front is forecast to move rapidly northward across IL and portions of the OH Valley through 00z. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will develop eastward across the region through the period. The warm sector will be characterized by dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s, and areas of strong destabilization are expected. While details concerning convective evolution remain uncertain, the overall environment will support supercells with upscale development into a bowing MCS possible by evening as the low-level jet continues to increase and spread east/northeast across the region. All severe hazards appear likely, with the greatest risk likely emerging across portions of the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley where significant severe storms are expected. Some severe risk will likely persist into the nighttime hours across parts of the Ohio Valley given intense deep-layer flow and sufficient instability.

Some details will likely change in subsequent outlooks as the track of the surface low and orientation of the mid/upper level jet streak atop the develop surface warm sector become better resolved closer to the event. The risk areas may shift some as these details become clearer.

Day 5/Thursday – Ohio Valley to Mid-Atlantic

An upper shortwave trough will pivot across the Lower Great Lakes/Northeast on Thursday, with a strong southwesterly jet streak forecast to overspread parts of the Ohio Valley into New England. The jet streak may tend to become increasing displaced from better low-level moisture/thermodynamic with time and eastward extent through the period. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass is expected ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front and a severe risk should unfold across parts of the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic. Northward extent of the severe risk is uncertain as early period convection and widespread rainfall may hinder destabilization. The best overlap of favorable vertical shear and instability is delineated by the 15 percent probabilities from OH/KY into the Mid-Atlantic, where damaging wind potential is likely to be the main concern.

Days 6-8/Friday-Sunday

Large spread among medium range guidance during the end of the forecast period leads to low predictability. The surface front from Day 4/5 will likely stall across the southern U.S. and periods of heavy rain will be possible across the Southeast. Late in the period, some signal for moisture return and a deepening lee low over the Plains could bring some increasing severe risk, but details remain uncertain.

..Leitman.. 06/14/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Thursday, June 18

Outlook Images

any severe 15%

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, June 17	30%
Day 5	Thursday, June 18	15%
Day 6	Friday, June 19	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, June 20	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, June 21	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140744 SPC AC 140744

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Wednesday – Mid-MS and Ohio Valley vicinity

An upper shortwave trough is forecast to deepen as it moves across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes on Wednesday. As this occurs, an intense jet streak (especially by June standards) is forecast to overspread portions of the Midwest. The ECMWF and GFS suite of forecast guidance still is indicating a 500 mb jet streak greater than 80 kt overspreading the region by evening. Furthermore, low and midlevel flow will also be quite strong, with a daytime 850 mb low-level jet around 40-50 kt by mid/late afternoon.

At the surface, low pressure will deepen and move across the Upper MS Valley and Lower MI through the period. A warm front is forecast to move rapidly northward across IL and portions of the OH Valley through 00z. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will develop eastward across the region through the period. The warm sector will be characterized by dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s, and areas of strong destabilization are expected. While details concerning convective evolution remain uncertain, the overall environment will support supercells with upscale development into a bowing MCS possible by evening as the low-level jet continues to increase and spread east/northeast across the region. All severe hazards appear likely, with the greatest risk likely emerging across portions of the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley where significant severe storms are expected. Some severe risk will likely persist into the nighttime hours across parts of the Ohio Valley given intense deep-layer flow and sufficient instability.

Some details will likely change in subsequent outlooks as the track of the surface low and orientation of the mid/upper level jet streak atop the develop surface warm sector become better resolved closer to the event. The risk areas may shift some as these details become clearer.

Day 5/Thursday – Ohio Valley to Mid-Atlantic

An upper shortwave trough will pivot across the Lower Great Lakes/Northeast on Thursday, with a strong southwesterly jet streak forecast to overspread parts of the Ohio Valley into New England. The jet streak may tend to become increasing displaced from better low-level moisture/thermodynamic with time and eastward extent through the period. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass is expected ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front and a severe risk should unfold across parts of the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic. Northward extent of the severe risk is uncertain as early period convection and widespread rainfall may hinder destabilization. The best overlap of favorable vertical shear and instability is delineated by the 15 percent probabilities from OH/KY into the Mid-Atlantic, where damaging wind potential is likely to be the main concern.

Days 6-8/Friday-Sunday

Large spread among medium range guidance during the end of the forecast period leads to low predictability. The surface front from Day 4/5 will likely stall across the southern U.S. and periods of heavy rain will be possible across the Southeast. Late in the period, some signal for moisture return and a deepening lee low over the Plains could bring some increasing severe risk, but details remain uncertain.

..Leitman.. 06/14/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Friday, June 19

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, June 17	30%
Day 5	Thursday, June 18	15%
Day 6	Friday, June 19	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, June 20	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, June 21	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140744 SPC AC 140744

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Wednesday – Mid-MS and Ohio Valley vicinity

An upper shortwave trough is forecast to deepen as it moves across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes on Wednesday. As this occurs, an intense jet streak (especially by June standards) is forecast to overspread portions of the Midwest. The ECMWF and GFS suite of forecast guidance still is indicating a 500 mb jet streak greater than 80 kt overspreading the region by evening. Furthermore, low and midlevel flow will also be quite strong, with a daytime 850 mb low-level jet around 40-50 kt by mid/late afternoon.

At the surface, low pressure will deepen and move across the Upper MS Valley and Lower MI through the period. A warm front is forecast to move rapidly northward across IL and portions of the OH Valley through 00z. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will develop eastward across the region through the period. The warm sector will be characterized by dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s, and areas of strong destabilization are expected. While details concerning convective evolution remain uncertain, the overall environment will support supercells with upscale development into a bowing MCS possible by evening as the low-level jet continues to increase and spread east/northeast across the region. All severe hazards appear likely, with the greatest risk likely emerging across portions of the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley where significant severe storms are expected. Some severe risk will likely persist into the nighttime hours across parts of the Ohio Valley given intense deep-layer flow and sufficient instability.

Some details will likely change in subsequent outlooks as the track of the surface low and orientation of the mid/upper level jet streak atop the develop surface warm sector become better resolved closer to the event. The risk areas may shift some as these details become clearer.

Day 5/Thursday – Ohio Valley to Mid-Atlantic

An upper shortwave trough will pivot across the Lower Great Lakes/Northeast on Thursday, with a strong southwesterly jet streak forecast to overspread parts of the Ohio Valley into New England. The jet streak may tend to become increasing displaced from better low-level moisture/thermodynamic with time and eastward extent through the period. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass is expected ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front and a severe risk should unfold across parts of the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic. Northward extent of the severe risk is uncertain as early period convection and widespread rainfall may hinder destabilization. The best overlap of favorable vertical shear and instability is delineated by the 15 percent probabilities from OH/KY into the Mid-Atlantic, where damaging wind potential is likely to be the main concern.

Days 6-8/Friday-Sunday

Large spread among medium range guidance during the end of the forecast period leads to low predictability. The surface front from Day 4/5 will likely stall across the southern U.S. and periods of heavy rain will be possible across the Southeast. Late in the period, some signal for moisture return and a deepening lee low over the Plains could bring some increasing severe risk, but details remain uncertain.

..Leitman.. 06/14/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Saturday, June 20

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, June 17	30%
Day 5	Thursday, June 18	15%
Day 6	Friday, June 19	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, June 20	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, June 21	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140744 SPC AC 140744

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Wednesday – Mid-MS and Ohio Valley vicinity

An upper shortwave trough is forecast to deepen as it moves across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes on Wednesday. As this occurs, an intense jet streak (especially by June standards) is forecast to overspread portions of the Midwest. The ECMWF and GFS suite of forecast guidance still is indicating a 500 mb jet streak greater than 80 kt overspreading the region by evening. Furthermore, low and midlevel flow will also be quite strong, with a daytime 850 mb low-level jet around 40-50 kt by mid/late afternoon.

At the surface, low pressure will deepen and move across the Upper MS Valley and Lower MI through the period. A warm front is forecast to move rapidly northward across IL and portions of the OH Valley through 00z. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will develop eastward across the region through the period. The warm sector will be characterized by dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s, and areas of strong destabilization are expected. While details concerning convective evolution remain uncertain, the overall environment will support supercells with upscale development into a bowing MCS possible by evening as the low-level jet continues to increase and spread east/northeast across the region. All severe hazards appear likely, with the greatest risk likely emerging across portions of the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley where significant severe storms are expected. Some severe risk will likely persist into the nighttime hours across parts of the Ohio Valley given intense deep-layer flow and sufficient instability.

Some details will likely change in subsequent outlooks as the track of the surface low and orientation of the mid/upper level jet streak atop the develop surface warm sector become better resolved closer to the event. The risk areas may shift some as these details become clearer.

Day 5/Thursday – Ohio Valley to Mid-Atlantic

An upper shortwave trough will pivot across the Lower Great Lakes/Northeast on Thursday, with a strong southwesterly jet streak forecast to overspread parts of the Ohio Valley into New England. The jet streak may tend to become increasing displaced from better low-level moisture/thermodynamic with time and eastward extent through the period. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass is expected ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front and a severe risk should unfold across parts of the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic. Northward extent of the severe risk is uncertain as early period convection and widespread rainfall may hinder destabilization. The best overlap of favorable vertical shear and instability is delineated by the 15 percent probabilities from OH/KY into the Mid-Atlantic, where damaging wind potential is likely to be the main concern.

Days 6-8/Friday-Sunday

Large spread among medium range guidance during the end of the forecast period leads to low predictability. The surface front from Day 4/5 will likely stall across the southern U.S. and periods of heavy rain will be possible across the Southeast. Late in the period, some signal for moisture return and a deepening lee low over the Plains could bring some increasing severe risk, but details remain uncertain.

..Leitman.. 06/14/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Sunday, June 21

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, June 17	30%
Day 5	Thursday, June 18	15%
Day 6	Friday, June 19	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, June 20	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, June 21	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140744 SPC AC 140744

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Wednesday – Mid-MS and Ohio Valley vicinity

An upper shortwave trough is forecast to deepen as it moves across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes on Wednesday. As this occurs, an intense jet streak (especially by June standards) is forecast to overspread portions of the Midwest. The ECMWF and GFS suite of forecast guidance still is indicating a 500 mb jet streak greater than 80 kt overspreading the region by evening. Furthermore, low and midlevel flow will also be quite strong, with a daytime 850 mb low-level jet around 40-50 kt by mid/late afternoon.

At the surface, low pressure will deepen and move across the Upper MS Valley and Lower MI through the period. A warm front is forecast to move rapidly northward across IL and portions of the OH Valley through 00z. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will develop eastward across the region through the period. The warm sector will be characterized by dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s, and areas of strong destabilization are expected. While details concerning convective evolution remain uncertain, the overall environment will support supercells with upscale development into a bowing MCS possible by evening as the low-level jet continues to increase and spread east/northeast across the region. All severe hazards appear likely, with the greatest risk likely emerging across portions of the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley where significant severe storms are expected. Some severe risk will likely persist into the nighttime hours across parts of the Ohio Valley given intense deep-layer flow and sufficient instability.

Some details will likely change in subsequent outlooks as the track of the surface low and orientation of the mid/upper level jet streak atop the develop surface warm sector become better resolved closer to the event. The risk areas may shift some as these details become clearer.

Day 5/Thursday – Ohio Valley to Mid-Atlantic

An upper shortwave trough will pivot across the Lower Great Lakes/Northeast on Thursday, with a strong southwesterly jet streak forecast to overspread parts of the Ohio Valley into New England. The jet streak may tend to become increasing displaced from better low-level moisture/thermodynamic with time and eastward extent through the period. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass is expected ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front and a severe risk should unfold across parts of the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic. Northward extent of the severe risk is uncertain as early period convection and widespread rainfall may hinder destabilization. The best overlap of favorable vertical shear and instability is delineated by the 15 percent probabilities from OH/KY into the Mid-Atlantic, where damaging wind potential is likely to be the main concern.

Days 6-8/Friday-Sunday

Large spread among medium range guidance during the end of the forecast period leads to low predictability. The surface front from Day 4/5 will likely stall across the southern U.S. and periods of heavy rain will be possible across the Southeast. Late in the period, some signal for moisture return and a deepening lee low over the Plains could bring some increasing severe risk, but details remain uncertain.

..Leitman.. 06/14/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

National Risk Overview

Sunday, June 14: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 30%
Monday, June 15: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Tuesday, June 16: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Wednesday, June 17: ANY SEVERE: 30%
Thursday, June 18: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Friday, June 19: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, June 20: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, June 21: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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