Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, September 5
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms capable of mainly damaging gusts are possible across portions of the Ohio Valley into southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas on Saturday afternoon and evening. Isolated occurrences of large hail and severe wind gusts also appear possible over parts of the northern and central Plains Saturday into Saturday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 050522
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CDT Sat Sep 05 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms capable of mainly damaging gusts are possible across portions of the Ohio Valley into southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas on Saturday afternoon and evening. Isolated occurrences of large hail and severe wind gusts also appear possible over parts of the northern and central Plains Saturday into Saturday night.
Synopsis
A prominent mid-level ridge will persist over the central CONUS between upper lows over the Pacific Northwest and the Gulf of St. Lawrence into NB/NS. Several weak disturbances (some of convective origin) will progress through the periphery of the ridge, serving as foci for thunderstorm development. At the surface, an area of low pressure is forecast over the western Dakotas with an associated boundary –the location of which may be modified by convective outflow– extending into the OH Valley and southern Mid-Atlantic. The eastern extension of the boundary will begin to push south as a cold front Saturday afternoon into night as high pressure builds into the Great Lakes.
### Ohio Valley into the Carolinas
A mature to decaying MCS is expected to be ongoing 12Z Saturday over portions of the middle to upper OH Valley, aided by a subtle mid-level disturbance/possible MCV. There is considerable variability across the 00Z convection-allowing models in the longevity and extent of the convective system over the central Appalachians into southern Mid-Atlantic through the remainder of the morning. Should the MCS remain intact, isolated occurrences of damaging wind are possible.
Renewed thunderstorm development is likely by afternoon along the residual MCS cold pool and/or synoptic front as temperatures in the 90s to around 100 combine with boundary-layer dewpoints in the low to mid 70s to yield MLCAPE up to 2000-3000+ J/kg with steepening low-level lapse rates. Additionally, the models indicate some enhancement of mid-level winds in association with the disturbance/MCV moving through the southern Mid-Atlantic during the afternoon, which may yield more organized multicells and line segments with the predominant hazard being damaging wind gusts into the evening.
Farther to the west, additional strong to severe storms appear possible along and ahead of the composite boundary from the vicinity of the OH River south into the Cumberland Plateau where widely scattered damaging wind gusts also appear possible.
### Northern and Central Plains
A band of elevated thunderstorms is expected to be ongoing 12Z Saturday, centered over eastern SD. That activity is expected to diminish through the morning with the cessation of the nocturnal low-level jet; however, isolated occurrences of large hail and severe wind gusts appear possible prior to dissipation. In the wake of the early-day storms, the presence of steep low/mid-level lapse rates and richer boundary-layer moisture with eastward extent will contribute to a moderately to strongly unstable air mass by afternoon with MLCAPE of 2000-3500+ J/kg.
Nebulous forcing for ascent and capping relating to the proximity of the mid-level ridge axis lead to uncertainty in the specific details regarding the location and extent of surface-based thunderstorm development during the afternoon into evening. However, the presence of the surface low, outflow-modified surface front, and a lee trough over the High Plains will be candidates for storm development. The strongest deep-layer shear (30-40 kt) is forecast to the north of the surface low and composite boundary over ND and northern SD into western MN where a conditional risk of supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts exists. Elsewhere, high-based pulse and multicell storm modes appear possible with the primary hazard being widely-spaced severe wind gusts.
The isolated severe threat may persist into the overnight hours in the vicinity of a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet.
### Western Montana…
A belt of enhanced mid/upper-level flow will exist across the region, to the east of the upper low over the Pacific Northwest. Heating along the high terrain coupled with the possible influence of a weak mid-level disturbance is expected to support an increase in high-based showers and a few thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. While lapse rates will be steep with strong deep-layer shear, the absence of appreciable moisture will limit MLCAPE to generally less than 250 J/kg. As such the potential for severe wind gusts is currently too low to warrant 5% wind probabilities.
..Mead/Chalmers.. 09/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Sunday, September 6
Outlook Summary
Strong wind gusts are likely across the Southeast Sunday afternoon and early evening. A more uncertain risk for severe wind and hail is expected across parts of Montana into the northern Plains and Middle Missouri Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 050512
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CDT Sat Sep 05 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA
### SUMMARY
Strong wind gusts are likely across the Southeast Sunday afternoon and early evening. A more uncertain risk for severe wind and hail is expected across parts of Montana into the northern Plains and Middle Missouri Valley.
MT into the northern Plains and Mid-MO Valley
The upper ridge centered over the Plains on Sunday will begin to weaken and shift east as a western upper shortwave trough develops eastward toward the northern Rockies. As this occurs, several shortwave impulses will migrate through the top of the ridge over the northern Plains and Mid-MO Valley. Southwesterly deep-layer flow also will increase later in the period across MT and the High Plains with the approaching of the upper trough. At the surface, low pressure will be in place across eastern MT and the western Dakotas, with a surface trough extending southward through the central High Plains. Meanwhile, a warm front will be draped across northern ND, while a quasi-stationary front extends northwest to southeast across South Dakota into the MO-Valley. A moist airmass will reside along these boundaries, and areas of moderate to strong instability are forecast.
Most guidance depicts early day convection ongoing across parts of MN and eastern SD. While evolution of this convection is uncertain, it seems possible that it could persist and/or strengthen as it shifts southwest across the Mid-MO Valley through afternoon. Additional convection is expected to develop along the surface trough over the High Plains, near the surface warm front, surface low, and later in the evening across much of Montana with the approach of the upper trough. Pockets of damaging winds and hail will be possible. If confidence increases in areas of greater storm coverage, higher probabilities may be needed in later outlooks.
Southern States
A weak low is expected to develop southward across GA as a surface front sags southward through the period. Ahead of the front, a very moist and unstable airmass will be in place, fostering areas of moderate to strong instability. Deep-layer flow will remain light and vertical shear weak, limiting organized severe potential. However, given strong instability, high PWs, frontal forcing, and sufficient storm coverage/clustering, isolated to scattered strong/damaging wind gusts are expected.
..Leitman.. 09/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Monday, September 7
Outlook Summary
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern and central Plains into Minnesota on Monday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 050637
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Sat Sep 05 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA
### SUMMARY
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern and central Plains into Minnesota on Monday.
Nebraska into the Dakotas and Minnesota
An upper shortwave trough will eject east/northeast from the Intermountain West to the northern Plains on Monday. Strong mid/upper southwesterly flow will overspread the region ahead of the trough. At the surface, a low over eastern MT will develop northeast into the Canadian Prairies, and a trailing cold front will push east across portions of NE/SD/ND. A moist airmass will be in place ahead of the front, promoting areas of moderate instability. Vertically veering wind profiles, and strengthening midlevel southwesterly flow, will generate effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt, supporting organized thunderstorms. While cooling aloft will result in modestly steep lapse rates, warmer temperatures may linger around 850 mb, leading to capping concerns. Nevertheless, even elevated storms will pose a risk for hail, and depending on storm mode, strong wind gusts.
..Leitman.. 09/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Tuesday, September 8
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, September 7 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, September 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, September 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, September 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, September 11 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040747 SPC AC 040747
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CDT Fri Sep 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-6/Mon-Wed – Northern Plains to Great Lakes
An upper shortwave trough is forecast to move across the Canadian Prairies and Upper Midwest through Tuesday, before continuing east toward the Lower Great Lakes on Wednesday. This will shift the amplified upper ridge over the Plains at the beginning of the period eastward over the Midwest, before flattening the ridge over the Great Lakes through mid-week. As this occurs, enhanced west/southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest and eventually the Great Lakes. A surface low will track east/northeast across central Canada, and a trailing cold front will move across the region on Tuesday/Wednesday. Some severe potential could develop across the Dakotas into the Upper Midwest Monday and Tuesday given enhance southwesterly flow aloft and sufficient moisture ahead of the surface boundary. However, warm midlevels may result in capping while large-scale ascent will be focused mostly north of the international border. As a result, severe potential and storm coverage are uncertain, precluding 15 percent probabilities at this time.
The cold front will weaken on Wednesday as the upper low lifts into northern Ontario, and deep-layer flow will veer, becoming mostly westerly. While some severe potential could develop into parts of the Midwest and eastern Great Lakes vicinity, confidence is low regarding where the greatest risk could emerge.
Days 7-8/Thu-Fri
The upper ridge is forecast to once again amplify over the Rockies and into the Plains late in the week and severe potential appears limited.
..Leitman.. 09/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, September 9
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, September 7 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, September 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, September 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, September 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, September 11 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040747 SPC AC 040747
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CDT Fri Sep 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-6/Mon-Wed – Northern Plains to Great Lakes
An upper shortwave trough is forecast to move across the Canadian Prairies and Upper Midwest through Tuesday, before continuing east toward the Lower Great Lakes on Wednesday. This will shift the amplified upper ridge over the Plains at the beginning of the period eastward over the Midwest, before flattening the ridge over the Great Lakes through mid-week. As this occurs, enhanced west/southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest and eventually the Great Lakes. A surface low will track east/northeast across central Canada, and a trailing cold front will move across the region on Tuesday/Wednesday. Some severe potential could develop across the Dakotas into the Upper Midwest Monday and Tuesday given enhance southwesterly flow aloft and sufficient moisture ahead of the surface boundary. However, warm midlevels may result in capping while large-scale ascent will be focused mostly north of the international border. As a result, severe potential and storm coverage are uncertain, precluding 15 percent probabilities at this time.
The cold front will weaken on Wednesday as the upper low lifts into northern Ontario, and deep-layer flow will veer, becoming mostly westerly. While some severe potential could develop into parts of the Midwest and eastern Great Lakes vicinity, confidence is low regarding where the greatest risk could emerge.
Days 7-8/Thu-Fri
The upper ridge is forecast to once again amplify over the Rockies and into the Plains late in the week and severe potential appears limited.
..Leitman.. 09/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, September 10
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, September 7 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, September 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, September 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, September 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, September 11 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040747 SPC AC 040747
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CDT Fri Sep 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-6/Mon-Wed – Northern Plains to Great Lakes
An upper shortwave trough is forecast to move across the Canadian Prairies and Upper Midwest through Tuesday, before continuing east toward the Lower Great Lakes on Wednesday. This will shift the amplified upper ridge over the Plains at the beginning of the period eastward over the Midwest, before flattening the ridge over the Great Lakes through mid-week. As this occurs, enhanced west/southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest and eventually the Great Lakes. A surface low will track east/northeast across central Canada, and a trailing cold front will move across the region on Tuesday/Wednesday. Some severe potential could develop across the Dakotas into the Upper Midwest Monday and Tuesday given enhance southwesterly flow aloft and sufficient moisture ahead of the surface boundary. However, warm midlevels may result in capping while large-scale ascent will be focused mostly north of the international border. As a result, severe potential and storm coverage are uncertain, precluding 15 percent probabilities at this time.
The cold front will weaken on Wednesday as the upper low lifts into northern Ontario, and deep-layer flow will veer, becoming mostly westerly. While some severe potential could develop into parts of the Midwest and eastern Great Lakes vicinity, confidence is low regarding where the greatest risk could emerge.
Days 7-8/Thu-Fri
The upper ridge is forecast to once again amplify over the Rockies and into the Plains late in the week and severe potential appears limited.
..Leitman.. 09/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, September 11
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, September 7 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, September 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, September 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, September 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, September 11 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040747 SPC AC 040747
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CDT Fri Sep 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-6/Mon-Wed – Northern Plains to Great Lakes
An upper shortwave trough is forecast to move across the Canadian Prairies and Upper Midwest through Tuesday, before continuing east toward the Lower Great Lakes on Wednesday. This will shift the amplified upper ridge over the Plains at the beginning of the period eastward over the Midwest, before flattening the ridge over the Great Lakes through mid-week. As this occurs, enhanced west/southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest and eventually the Great Lakes. A surface low will track east/northeast across central Canada, and a trailing cold front will move across the region on Tuesday/Wednesday. Some severe potential could develop across the Dakotas into the Upper Midwest Monday and Tuesday given enhance southwesterly flow aloft and sufficient moisture ahead of the surface boundary. However, warm midlevels may result in capping while large-scale ascent will be focused mostly north of the international border. As a result, severe potential and storm coverage are uncertain, precluding 15 percent probabilities at this time.
The cold front will weaken on Wednesday as the upper low lifts into northern Ontario, and deep-layer flow will veer, becoming mostly westerly. While some severe potential could develop into parts of the Midwest and eastern Great Lakes vicinity, confidence is low regarding where the greatest risk could emerge.
Days 7-8/Thu-Fri
The upper ridge is forecast to once again amplify over the Rockies and into the Plains late in the week and severe potential appears limited.
..Leitman.. 09/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, September 5
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Sunday, September 6
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Monday, September 7
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Tuesday, September 8
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, September 9
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, September 10
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, September 11
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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