Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Saturday, June 13

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight across parts of the central and southern Plains to Missouri Valley and Middle Mississippi Valley. Swaths of damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes are all possible.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 131253

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight across parts of the central and southern Plains to Missouri Valley and Middle Mississippi Valley. Swaths of damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes are all possible.

Central/Southern Plains to Middle Mississippi Valley

An active severe-weather day is anticipated with multiple rounds of severe storms expected regionally today into tonight. Near the nose of a southwesterly low-level jet, an initial early day severe risk will focus across southeast Nebraska, where elevated/increasingly organized storms are ongoing just after dawn, into southern Iowa and northern Missouri. Large hail will remain possible, but the potential for damaging winds may increase relatively early today as storms spread east-southeastward.

Meanwhile, a more complex scenario exists farther south, attributable to persistent predawn storms across the Ozarks, as well as a decayed convective cluster and one or more residual MCVs across Oklahoma and far southeast Kansas. These MCVs, as they focus deeper convection along modifying outflow/differential heating zones, should inspire renewed deeper convective development this afternoon across parts of the Ozarks toward the Mid-South/middle Mississippi Valley. This includes the potential for some supercells and organizing clusters, with damaging winds and some hail as the primary hazards through evening.

Farther west and later in the day, strong diurnal heating/steepening low-level lapse rates preceding the surface low will result in scattered thunderstorm development near/ahead of the southeast-moving cold front, with the most intense development likely favoring where the front intercepts the west-southwest periphery of early day storms and any residual cloud cover/modifying outflow. This will likely include central/eastern Kansas and possibly far southeast Nebraska into western/northern Missouri.

Steep mid-level lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer moisture will yield a strongly unstable air mass, which combined with around 40 kt of effective shear, will support initial intense semi-discrete supercells as then organizing clusters. All hazards seem likely including large hail, with damaging winds potentially evolving as the most prominent risk this evening, potentially including some significant (75+ mph) wind gusts. The potential for tornadoes will also exist, particularly late afternoon into evening as the low-level jet increases, with modifying outflow potentially another factor across west/southwest Missouri and possibly far eastern Kansas and vicinity.

Carolinas/Coastal Southeast

Ample heating within a moist environment south of a front will lead to moderately strong diurnal destabilization, with convective development aided by the front and coastal sea breeze. Some pulse-type locally severe storms capable of downbursts/wind damage may occur this afternoon through around sunset.

..Guyer/Broyles.. 06/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

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Outlook for Sunday, June 14

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts are expected across the Mid-Atlantic vicinity Sunday afternoon and evening. Additional strong to severe storms are expected across the Upper Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes area.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 130515

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts are expected across the Mid-Atlantic vicinity Sunday afternoon and evening. Additional strong to severe storms are expected across the Upper Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes area.

Mid-Atlantic Region

An upper trough will be oriented over the Upper Great Lakes Sunday morning. A shortwave embedded within the large-scale troughing will pivot east across the Midwest/Lower Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic. Ahead of this main shortwave trough, most guidance suggests a lead impulse will overspread the Chesapeake Bay vicinity during the afternoon. Low to midlevel west/southwesterly flow will increase to around 30-40 kt in association with these features. This enhanced flow will aid in organized thunderstorms in multiple bands during the afternoon and evening.

Rich boundary layer moisture is expected to be in place to the lee of the Blue Ridge across the NC/VA Piedmont and Chesapeake Bay vicinity into southeast PA/southern NJ. Northward extent of moisture return remains a bit uncertain, but at least low 60s F dewpoints should filter into much of PA and NY ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. Strong heating will support a corridor of moderate destabilization, with MLCAPE in the 1500-2500 J/kg range across eastern VA/NC and vicinity. Instability is expected to be more muted with northward extent where boundary layer moisture will be somewhat less and midlevel lapse rates rather poor.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop within lee troughing near the Blue Ridge and spread east across the Chesapeake/DelMarVa/southeast PA/southern NJ vicinity during the afternoon to early evening. Damaging wind gusts will be the main concern with these storms, though isolated hail or a tornado also will be possible. If current model trends continue, higher coverage probabilities/upgrade to Enhanced (Level 3 of 5) could be needed in subsequent outlooks. For now, wind probabilities have been increased to 30 percent across the DelMarVa into southeast PA/southern NJ.

Additional bands/clusters of storms are likely to develop during the afternoon ahead of the advancing cold front from the Upper Ohio Valley into PA/NY. While instability will be lower across this area, deep-layer flow will be stronger. Linear bands and clusters will pose a risk for isolated severe/damaging wind gusts through the evening.

Southeast NM to the ArkLaTex

A southward sagging surface front/composite outflow will extend west to east across the region. A very moist and moderately unstable airmass will be in place ahead of the front. Isolated convection cold pose a risk for strong wind gusts. Across southeast NM/southwest TX, a few storms could also produce hail. Weak large-scale ascent and convection becoming undercut by the surface boundary will limit overall severe potential.

..Leitman.. 06/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Monday, June 15

Outlook Summary

Scattered thunderstorms are possible from the Gulf Coast states to the Carolinas, and across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest. Severe thunderstorm potential appears limited at this time.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 130634

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Scattered thunderstorms are possible from the Gulf Coast states to the Carolinas, and across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest. Severe thunderstorm potential appears limited at this time.

Synopsis

Broad upper troughing will envelop much of the CONUS east of the Rockies on Monday. Modest deepening of the trough will result in a belt of increasing northwesterly flow aloft from the northern High Plains into the Mid-South. At the surface, a cold front will extend from the southern Mid-Atlantic coast west/southwest across the Gulf Coast states into central TX. This boundary will sag southward through the period. Rich boundary layer moisture will be in place ahead of the boundary, but this region will remain displaced to the south of strong mid/upper level flow. Scattered thunderstorms are possible, and some gusty winds could occur. However, organized severe potential appears limited.

Further north across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, scant boundary layer moisture is forecast. Weak destabilization is possible via cooling aloft/steepening lapse rates. This could be sufficient for isolated, higher-based thunderstorms. Gusty winds and maybe small hail could occur, but overall severe potential appears low.

..Leitman.. 06/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, June 16

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130753 SPC AC 130753

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 5-6/Wed-Thu – Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley to Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic

An upper trough is forecast to deepen over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Wednesday. As this occurs, an intensifying 500 mb jet streak will develop across the central Plains and increase to 80-100 kt as it moves into the Mid-MS Valley Wednesday night, and spreads eastward across the Ohio Valley and Northeast on Thursday.

At the surface, low pressure will develop over the northern/central Plains late Tuesday night into early Wednesday. As this occurs, increasing southerly low-level flow will quickly transport rich Gulf moisture northward into the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley by Wednesday afternoon as the surface low moves across IA and a trailing cold front moves eastward in tandem with the low across portions of the central Plains and Mid-MS Valley. Strong to extreme instability is forecast across the strongly sheared warm sector. An all-hazards severe thunderstorm event appears likely. An intense southwesterly low-level jet is expected to develop during the evening. This could support upscale growth into an MCS moving across portions of the Midwest Wednesday night, posing a risk for swaths of damaging winds.

This system will spread east on Thursday across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. A continued risk for all severe hazards, and possible MCS with damaging winds, will persist as the mid/upper jet streak is forecast to remain quite strong as it overspreads a seasonally moist airmass.

While some timing differences of aforementioned features is evident in various NWP guidance, overall medium range consensus and mean calibrated ML/AI guidance suggests a multi-day severe episode is likely as this system overspreads portions of the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, though the 15 percent risk areas may shift in the coming days as details become better resolved, and higher probabilities are possible in subsequent outlooks. The southern extent of severe potential is more uncertain across parts of the Plains toward the TN Valley as these areas will remain further removed from stronger flow aloft.

..Leitman.. 06/13/2026

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Outlook for Wednesday, June 17

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130753 SPC AC 130753

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 5-6/Wed-Thu – Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley to Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic

An upper trough is forecast to deepen over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Wednesday. As this occurs, an intensifying 500 mb jet streak will develop across the central Plains and increase to 80-100 kt as it moves into the Mid-MS Valley Wednesday night, and spreads eastward across the Ohio Valley and Northeast on Thursday.

At the surface, low pressure will develop over the northern/central Plains late Tuesday night into early Wednesday. As this occurs, increasing southerly low-level flow will quickly transport rich Gulf moisture northward into the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley by Wednesday afternoon as the surface low moves across IA and a trailing cold front moves eastward in tandem with the low across portions of the central Plains and Mid-MS Valley. Strong to extreme instability is forecast across the strongly sheared warm sector. An all-hazards severe thunderstorm event appears likely. An intense southwesterly low-level jet is expected to develop during the evening. This could support upscale growth into an MCS moving across portions of the Midwest Wednesday night, posing a risk for swaths of damaging winds.

This system will spread east on Thursday across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. A continued risk for all severe hazards, and possible MCS with damaging winds, will persist as the mid/upper jet streak is forecast to remain quite strong as it overspreads a seasonally moist airmass.

While some timing differences of aforementioned features is evident in various NWP guidance, overall medium range consensus and mean calibrated ML/AI guidance suggests a multi-day severe episode is likely as this system overspreads portions of the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, though the 15 percent risk areas may shift in the coming days as details become better resolved, and higher probabilities are possible in subsequent outlooks. The southern extent of severe potential is more uncertain across parts of the Plains toward the TN Valley as these areas will remain further removed from stronger flow aloft.

..Leitman.. 06/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Thursday, June 18

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130753 SPC AC 130753

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 5-6/Wed-Thu – Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley to Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic

An upper trough is forecast to deepen over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Wednesday. As this occurs, an intensifying 500 mb jet streak will develop across the central Plains and increase to 80-100 kt as it moves into the Mid-MS Valley Wednesday night, and spreads eastward across the Ohio Valley and Northeast on Thursday.

At the surface, low pressure will develop over the northern/central Plains late Tuesday night into early Wednesday. As this occurs, increasing southerly low-level flow will quickly transport rich Gulf moisture northward into the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley by Wednesday afternoon as the surface low moves across IA and a trailing cold front moves eastward in tandem with the low across portions of the central Plains and Mid-MS Valley. Strong to extreme instability is forecast across the strongly sheared warm sector. An all-hazards severe thunderstorm event appears likely. An intense southwesterly low-level jet is expected to develop during the evening. This could support upscale growth into an MCS moving across portions of the Midwest Wednesday night, posing a risk for swaths of damaging winds.

This system will spread east on Thursday across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. A continued risk for all severe hazards, and possible MCS with damaging winds, will persist as the mid/upper jet streak is forecast to remain quite strong as it overspreads a seasonally moist airmass.

While some timing differences of aforementioned features is evident in various NWP guidance, overall medium range consensus and mean calibrated ML/AI guidance suggests a multi-day severe episode is likely as this system overspreads portions of the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, though the 15 percent risk areas may shift in the coming days as details become better resolved, and higher probabilities are possible in subsequent outlooks. The southern extent of severe potential is more uncertain across parts of the Plains toward the TN Valley as these areas will remain further removed from stronger flow aloft.

..Leitman.. 06/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Friday, June 19

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130753 SPC AC 130753

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 5-6/Wed-Thu – Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley to Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic

An upper trough is forecast to deepen over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Wednesday. As this occurs, an intensifying 500 mb jet streak will develop across the central Plains and increase to 80-100 kt as it moves into the Mid-MS Valley Wednesday night, and spreads eastward across the Ohio Valley and Northeast on Thursday.

At the surface, low pressure will develop over the northern/central Plains late Tuesday night into early Wednesday. As this occurs, increasing southerly low-level flow will quickly transport rich Gulf moisture northward into the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley by Wednesday afternoon as the surface low moves across IA and a trailing cold front moves eastward in tandem with the low across portions of the central Plains and Mid-MS Valley. Strong to extreme instability is forecast across the strongly sheared warm sector. An all-hazards severe thunderstorm event appears likely. An intense southwesterly low-level jet is expected to develop during the evening. This could support upscale growth into an MCS moving across portions of the Midwest Wednesday night, posing a risk for swaths of damaging winds.

This system will spread east on Thursday across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. A continued risk for all severe hazards, and possible MCS with damaging winds, will persist as the mid/upper jet streak is forecast to remain quite strong as it overspreads a seasonally moist airmass.

While some timing differences of aforementioned features is evident in various NWP guidance, overall medium range consensus and mean calibrated ML/AI guidance suggests a multi-day severe episode is likely as this system overspreads portions of the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, though the 15 percent risk areas may shift in the coming days as details become better resolved, and higher probabilities are possible in subsequent outlooks. The southern extent of severe potential is more uncertain across parts of the Plains toward the TN Valley as these areas will remain further removed from stronger flow aloft.

..Leitman.. 06/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, June 20

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130753 SPC AC 130753

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 5-6/Wed-Thu – Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley to Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic

An upper trough is forecast to deepen over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Wednesday. As this occurs, an intensifying 500 mb jet streak will develop across the central Plains and increase to 80-100 kt as it moves into the Mid-MS Valley Wednesday night, and spreads eastward across the Ohio Valley and Northeast on Thursday.

At the surface, low pressure will develop over the northern/central Plains late Tuesday night into early Wednesday. As this occurs, increasing southerly low-level flow will quickly transport rich Gulf moisture northward into the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley by Wednesday afternoon as the surface low moves across IA and a trailing cold front moves eastward in tandem with the low across portions of the central Plains and Mid-MS Valley. Strong to extreme instability is forecast across the strongly sheared warm sector. An all-hazards severe thunderstorm event appears likely. An intense southwesterly low-level jet is expected to develop during the evening. This could support upscale growth into an MCS moving across portions of the Midwest Wednesday night, posing a risk for swaths of damaging winds.

This system will spread east on Thursday across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. A continued risk for all severe hazards, and possible MCS with damaging winds, will persist as the mid/upper jet streak is forecast to remain quite strong as it overspreads a seasonally moist airmass.

While some timing differences of aforementioned features is evident in various NWP guidance, overall medium range consensus and mean calibrated ML/AI guidance suggests a multi-day severe episode is likely as this system overspreads portions of the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, though the 15 percent risk areas may shift in the coming days as details become better resolved, and higher probabilities are possible in subsequent outlooks. The southern extent of severe potential is more uncertain across parts of the Plains toward the TN Valley as these areas will remain further removed from stronger flow aloft.

..Leitman.. 06/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Saturday, June 13

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 30%

WIND: 45%

Sunday, June 14

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 30%

Monday, June 15

ANY SEVERE: low

Tuesday, June 16

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Wednesday, June 17

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Thursday, June 18

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Friday, June 19

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Saturday, June 20

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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