Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, May 9
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds are expected to continue tonight across western, central, and southern Oklahoma and north Texas. Isolated occurrences of wind and/or hail are possible through the remainder of the evening over the central High Plains, Texas Coast, and lower Great Lakes.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 100055
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Sat May 09 2026
Valid 100100Z - 101200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN…CENTRAL…AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds are expected to continue tonight across western, central, and southern Oklahoma and north Texas. Isolated occurrences of wind and/or hail are possible through the remainder of the evening over the central High Plains, Texas Coast, and lower Great Lakes.
Oklahoma and North Texas
As of 00:30z, a cluster of supercells with a history of large hail production is present along and just to the south of I-40 in western OK with additional storms intensifying ahead of a cold front northwest of Woodward. The storms are occurring within a narrow axis of modest instability with MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, which coincides with effective bulk shear magnitudes of 45-50 kt. A comparably more moist boundary layer resides to the south of the current convection across southern OK into north TX with dewpoints in the upper 50s to around 60, supporting MLCAPE up to 1500 J/kg.
Recent, convection-allowing model guidance is suggestive that a consolidation of the separate convective regimes will occur later this evening with an increasing damaging wind threat spreading southeast through central and southern OK and north TX. Another possible scenario is for the I-40 supercell complex to gradually evolve into a forward-propagating system with an attendant damaging wind and hail threat confined to southern OK and potentially north TX. Either of these scenarios appear plausible as a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet enhances inflow of the more moist/unstable air mass into the growing convective system. In either scenario, it appears the damaging wind threat will develop to the east of the current 15% unconditional probability. As such, that line (delineating the level 2/Slight Risk) has been extended into portions of southeast OK, and farther east in north TX.
Western New York into Northeast Ohio
As of 00z, a band of thunderstorms is ongoing from portions of western NY through northwest PA into eastern OH, ahead of a vigorous short-wave trough moving through the Great Lakes region. Steep low/mid-level lapse rates have contributed to sufficient instability to sustain the ongoing storms with a number of 40-50+ mph wind gusts reported earlier in the Cleveland area. Locally strong to marginally severe wind gusts will remain possible for the next hour or two before low-level lapse rates weaken with the cooling of the boundary layer.
### Central High Plains
A small cluster of thunderstorms is ongoing this evening in northeast CO with a more isolated storm in northwest KS, near Goodland. Forcing for ascent associated with a vigorous short-wave trough moving through WY coupled with a steep, low/mid-level lapse rate environment are supporting that convective development amidst a kinematic environment featuring 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear. The potential for isolated occurrences of large hail and/or locally damaging wind gusts are expected to continue through the remainder of the evening before boundary-layer cooling and resultant convective inhibition accrual result in a decreasing severe-weather threat.
### Texas Coast to Lower Sabine River Valley
Isolated strong to severe storms this evening within a moist and moderately unstable air mass with estimated MLCAPE up to 2000-2500 J/kg. Vertical shear isn't particularly strong, nor is large-scale forcing for ascent. As such, isolated large hail and/or strong wind gusts will remain possible for the next couple of hours before storms weaken with the loss of daytime heating.
..Mead.. 05/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Sunday, May 10
Outlook Summary
Large hail (some in excess of 2 inches in diameter) and severe outflow gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph) will be possible Sunday afternoon/evening across parts of central and north Texas.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 30%
hail 30%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 091730
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat May 09 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS
### SUMMARY
Large hail (some in excess of 2 inches in diameter) and severe outflow gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph) will be possible Sunday afternoon/evening across parts of central and north Texas.
Southern Plains Sunday afternoon/night
Within the broader pattern of a Great Lakes trough and Intermountain ridge, an embedded shortwave trough now over the northern Rockies will progress southeastward to KS/OK by Sunday afternoon. In the wake of this shortwave trough and a separate northern stream wave over the Great Lakes, a surface cold front will move southeastward across OK/TX. Convection will likely be ongoing at 12z across OK in the vicinity of the front. There will be some potential for the overnight convection in OK to continue east-southeastward during the day into AR/northern LA into MS with the threat for at least isolated wind damage and large hail.
Additional storm development is likely along the front Sunday afternoon from the Edwards Plateau into north TX, with the northern extent of development modulated by morning convection and associated convective outflow. Convective inhibition will diminish by early-mid afternoon and MLCAPE will increase to 2500-3000 J/kg as surface heating (temperatures of 85-90 F) drives deep mixing beneath an elevated mixed layer with midlevel lapse rates of 8-9 C/km. Vertical shear will be relatively weak in the open warm sector, with modest shear enhancement expected along the front and/or lingering convective outflows in the vicinity of the Red River. Somewhat discrete convection may occur initially with some supercell potential, which will drive the potential for isolated very large hail. The potential for severe outflow gusts will increase with upscale growth, given the steep lapse rate environment. Storms will likely reach the TX coast and deep South TX by early Monday morning.
### FL Sunday afternoon/evening
Strong surface heating across the FL peninsula will likely support sea breeze thunderstorms Sunday afternoon/evening. The more probable zone for development will be skewed to the central peninsula and Atlantic coast given a westerly component to the low-midlevel flow. Isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail will be the main threats.
..Thompson.. 05/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Monday, May 11
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe storms with locally damaging wind gusts are possible Monday afternoon across parts of the Southeast.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 091905
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Sat May 09 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe storms with locally damaging wind gusts are possible Monday afternoon across parts of the Southeast.
Southeast Monday afternoon
A surface cold front will move southeastward into the northwest Gulf early in the period, likely aided by outflow from D2 convection. Farther east, the front will reach the coast of the Carolinas Monday afternoon, and the northeast Gulf coast/north FL by late Monday night or early Tuesday morning. Aloft, a midlevel trough will progress eastward near the Gulf coast, in advance of the next digging wave over the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. Thunderstorms will be possible within the moist environment along the front. A few strong storms/clusters with wind damage may occur Monday afternoon along the front, where pockets of stronger surface heating occur in cloud breaks, coincident with modest enhancement of midlevel flow/deep-layer shear. Isolated strong storms will also be possible along the Atlantic coast sea breeze into the FL peninsula.
Northern Plains to Upper MS Valley Monday afternoon/night
Low-level moisture will remain limited in advance of a midlevel trough digging southeastward, around the northeast periphery of a ridge over the Southwest. Deep surface mixing along the surface front/trough could support isolated, high-based storms Monday afternoon across ND. However, the more probable scenario will be for a few elevated storms to form by Monday evening/night over MN and adjacent areas of WI/IA where sufficient midlevel moistening/ascent occurs on the east edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates.
..Thompson.. 05/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Tuesday, May 12
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, May 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, May 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, May 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, May 16 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090843 SPC AC 090843
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sat May 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5.
On Tuesday and Wednesday, northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place over the central U.S. A shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, and into the central Appalachians on Wednesday. Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the trough each day, but weak instability should keep any severe threat marginal.
Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8
On Thursday, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. A north-to-south axis of instability is forecast to develop in the wake of the ridge across the Great Plains. Isolated severe storms will be possible along parts of this corridor Thursday afternoon and evening.
On Friday, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast to be in place over a moist and unstable airmass from eastern Kansas southward into Oklahoma, where isolated severe storms may develop during the afternoon and evening.
On Saturday, strong low-level moisture advection is forecast to develop over the south-central U.S., as a mid-level shortwave trough moves into the southern Plains. Near this trough, scattered thunderstorm development will be possible. Moderate deep-layer shear and instability should be favorable for an isolated severe threat during the afternoon and evening, mainly from Oklahoma southward into west-central Texas.
Considering the last few days of the Day 4 to 8 period, recent models have shown substantial variability from run to run. Scenarios have been outlined based on model consensus. However, confidence is low concerning potential outcomes, especially this upcoming weekend.
..Broyles.. 05/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, May 13
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, May 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, May 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, May 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, May 16 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090843 SPC AC 090843
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sat May 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5.
On Tuesday and Wednesday, northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place over the central U.S. A shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, and into the central Appalachians on Wednesday. Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the trough each day, but weak instability should keep any severe threat marginal.
Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8
On Thursday, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. A north-to-south axis of instability is forecast to develop in the wake of the ridge across the Great Plains. Isolated severe storms will be possible along parts of this corridor Thursday afternoon and evening.
On Friday, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast to be in place over a moist and unstable airmass from eastern Kansas southward into Oklahoma, where isolated severe storms may develop during the afternoon and evening.
On Saturday, strong low-level moisture advection is forecast to develop over the south-central U.S., as a mid-level shortwave trough moves into the southern Plains. Near this trough, scattered thunderstorm development will be possible. Moderate deep-layer shear and instability should be favorable for an isolated severe threat during the afternoon and evening, mainly from Oklahoma southward into west-central Texas.
Considering the last few days of the Day 4 to 8 period, recent models have shown substantial variability from run to run. Scenarios have been outlined based on model consensus. However, confidence is low concerning potential outcomes, especially this upcoming weekend.
..Broyles.. 05/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, May 14
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, May 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, May 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, May 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, May 16 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090843 SPC AC 090843
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sat May 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5.
On Tuesday and Wednesday, northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place over the central U.S. A shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, and into the central Appalachians on Wednesday. Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the trough each day, but weak instability should keep any severe threat marginal.
Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8
On Thursday, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. A north-to-south axis of instability is forecast to develop in the wake of the ridge across the Great Plains. Isolated severe storms will be possible along parts of this corridor Thursday afternoon and evening.
On Friday, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast to be in place over a moist and unstable airmass from eastern Kansas southward into Oklahoma, where isolated severe storms may develop during the afternoon and evening.
On Saturday, strong low-level moisture advection is forecast to develop over the south-central U.S., as a mid-level shortwave trough moves into the southern Plains. Near this trough, scattered thunderstorm development will be possible. Moderate deep-layer shear and instability should be favorable for an isolated severe threat during the afternoon and evening, mainly from Oklahoma southward into west-central Texas.
Considering the last few days of the Day 4 to 8 period, recent models have shown substantial variability from run to run. Scenarios have been outlined based on model consensus. However, confidence is low concerning potential outcomes, especially this upcoming weekend.
..Broyles.. 05/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, May 15
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, May 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, May 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, May 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, May 16 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090843 SPC AC 090843
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sat May 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5.
On Tuesday and Wednesday, northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place over the central U.S. A shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, and into the central Appalachians on Wednesday. Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the trough each day, but weak instability should keep any severe threat marginal.
Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8
On Thursday, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. A north-to-south axis of instability is forecast to develop in the wake of the ridge across the Great Plains. Isolated severe storms will be possible along parts of this corridor Thursday afternoon and evening.
On Friday, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast to be in place over a moist and unstable airmass from eastern Kansas southward into Oklahoma, where isolated severe storms may develop during the afternoon and evening.
On Saturday, strong low-level moisture advection is forecast to develop over the south-central U.S., as a mid-level shortwave trough moves into the southern Plains. Near this trough, scattered thunderstorm development will be possible. Moderate deep-layer shear and instability should be favorable for an isolated severe threat during the afternoon and evening, mainly from Oklahoma southward into west-central Texas.
Considering the last few days of the Day 4 to 8 period, recent models have shown substantial variability from run to run. Scenarios have been outlined based on model consensus. However, confidence is low concerning potential outcomes, especially this upcoming weekend.
..Broyles.. 05/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, May 16
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, May 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, May 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, May 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, May 16 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090843 SPC AC 090843
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sat May 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5.
On Tuesday and Wednesday, northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place over the central U.S. A shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, and into the central Appalachians on Wednesday. Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the trough each day, but weak instability should keep any severe threat marginal.
Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8
On Thursday, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. A north-to-south axis of instability is forecast to develop in the wake of the ridge across the Great Plains. Isolated severe storms will be possible along parts of this corridor Thursday afternoon and evening.
On Friday, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast to be in place over a moist and unstable airmass from eastern Kansas southward into Oklahoma, where isolated severe storms may develop during the afternoon and evening.
On Saturday, strong low-level moisture advection is forecast to develop over the south-central U.S., as a mid-level shortwave trough moves into the southern Plains. Near this trough, scattered thunderstorm development will be possible. Moderate deep-layer shear and instability should be favorable for an isolated severe threat during the afternoon and evening, mainly from Oklahoma southward into west-central Texas.
Considering the last few days of the Day 4 to 8 period, recent models have shown substantial variability from run to run. Scenarios have been outlined based on model consensus. However, confidence is low concerning potential outcomes, especially this upcoming weekend.
..Broyles.. 05/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, May 9
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Sunday, May 10
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 30%
- WIND: 30%
- Monday, May 11
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Tuesday, May 12
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, May 13
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, May 14
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, May 15
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, May 16
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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