Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Saturday, October 10

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms associated with a tornado threat will be possible today from eastern Georgia into western/southern South Carolina. A few severe wind gusts may also occur in parts of the Desert Southwest.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 101248

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN GEORGIA INTO WESTERN/SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms associated with a tornado threat will be possible today from eastern Georgia into western/southern South Carolina. A few severe wind gusts may also occur in parts of the Desert Southwest.

Eastern Florida Panhandle/Georgia/Carolinas

Isaias underwent a rapid transition to a post-tropical cyclone after landfall Friday evening, with a notable baroclinic zone now in place throughout its eastern periphery. The low-level center of this system is currently over southeast AL, with a warm front extending east-northeastward from this center across central GA, central SC, and eastern NC. General expectation is for this former tropical cyclone to spend the first half of the period completing its transition to a mid-latitude cyclone over MS/AL before then progressing northeastward across the TN Valley later tonight. The surface low is expected to drift northeastward as the system matures, centering over northern AL by 00Z. As it does, its warm sector, which is characterized by low to mid 70s dewpoints, will expand northwestward into more of GA and the Carolinas. This increase in low-level moisture will support moderate buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg) despite widespread cloudiness and limited heating. Low-level confluence within the warm sector, augmented by modest but persistent large-scale ascent, is expected to support thunderstorm development throughout the period, particularly during the afternoon.

The stronger low to mid-level flow will be displaced west of the greater low-level moisture and associated buoyancy. Even so, southeasterly low-level flow veering to southerly in the mid/upper levels will result in moderate vertical shear and the potential for occasional organization/intensification of the predominantly multicellular structures. Several brief tornadoes could result within any of these more organized storms. Convectively augmented damaging wind gusts are possible as well. Greatest severe potential is expected along the GA/SC border vicinity between 21Z and 00Z.

Lower CO River Valley into South-Central AZ

Complex synoptic evolution is anticipated over the eastern Pacific Ocean, just upstream of southern CA and the Baja Peninsula, as Tropical Storm Rachel interacts with a compact mid-latitude cyclone. The interaction will increase the northeastward motion of the tropical cyclone, while also resulting an expanded low to mid-level wind field. Additionally, this evolution will favor advection of notable low-level moisture into the Lower CO River Valley and adjacent southern/central AZ. Overall thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase throughout the day into tonight. Deep-layer vertical shear will be stronger enough for supercells, a few of which could produce strong wind gusts. Additionally, surface low associated with the tropical cyclone is forecast to move into the Lower CO River Valley region after 06Z. Increase low-level winds and moisture will support a low-probability tornado threat.

..Mosier/Wendt.. 10/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

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Outlook for Sunday, October 11

Outlook Summary

Widely scattered severe storms capable of a few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts appear possible over portions of North Carolina, Virginia, and southeast Maryland Sunday afternoon and evening. A brief tornado or two may occur over portions of the lower Colorado Valley Sunday morning, with sporadic occurrences of severe wind gusts possible into the Great Basin and central Rockies Sunday afternoon and evening.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 100532

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA…VIRGINIA…AND SOUTHEAST MARYLAND

### SUMMARY

Widely scattered severe storms capable of a few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts appear possible over portions of North Carolina, Virginia, and southeast Maryland Sunday afternoon and evening. A brief tornado or two may occur over portions of the lower Colorado Valley Sunday morning, with sporadic occurrences of severe wind gusts possible into the Great Basin and central Rockies Sunday afternoon and evening.

Synopsis

A mid/upper-level low over KY and TN Sunday morning is forecast to evolve into an open wave while progressing into the Mid-Atlantic by Sunday night. That system will be preceded by a focused corridor of height falls and a belt of 45-55+ kt southwesterly flow in the midlevels, which will overspread the Carolinas and southern Mid-Atlantic during the day. While the primary surface low will remain displaced to the northwest of the warm sector, secondary cyclogenesis is forecast during the afternoon over central VA at the junction of a cool front/trough advancing east from the Blue Ridge and a warm front lifting north into the Mid-Atlantic.

Elsewhere, the remnants of Tropical Storm Rachel will weaken while accelerating from southern CA into the Great Basin within a belt of 50-60 kt midlevel flow. The associated surface circulation/low will likewise develop from southern CA into northern UT by Sunday evening.

### Southern Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas

A 40-45 kt low-level jet will persist over the Piedmont and Coastal Plain, enhancing the poleward transport of a moist boundary layer, characterized by dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing at 12Z Sunday within the expanding warm sector with lingering clouds and areas of precipitation limiting daytime heating and resultant destabilization at many locations. Nonetheless, a moist and at least marginally unstable air mass will coincide with strengthening low-level and deep-layer shear, which may support transient supercells with the threat for a brief tornado or two and/or strong wind gusts spreading from the Carolinas into the southern Mid-Atlantic on Sunday.

A higher-probability risk for sustained supercells capable of a few tornadoes and damaging winds may materialize by afternoon into evening from portions of central and eastern NC into south-central into southeast VA, where the 00Z REFS and HREF guidance indicates a corridor of locally stronger instability (SBCAPE up to 1000-1250 J/kg). Those areas have been upgraded to 5% tornado and 15% wind probabilities and a related Level-2/Slight Risk.

Lower Colorado Valley into the Great Basin and central Rockies

A low-level moisture plume (e.g., dewpoints in the mid 50s to mid-upper 60s) originating from the Gulf of CA will reside over the lower-CO Valley Sunday morning, with REFS and HREF guidance indicating SBCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. Relatively strong vertical shear, aided by the low-level mass response to the remnant Rachel circulation, will be more than sufficient for supercells and bowing structures capable of isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or two over the lower-CO Valley Sunday morning.

As mentioned in the synopsis, the system will weaken through the day, leading to greater uncertainty in the extent of any associated severe weather threat during the afternoon into evening. That said, corridors of modest instability are expected to develop across portions of the Great Basin into the central Rockies, which combined with relatively strong cloud-bearing shear will be supportive of widely scattered severe storms capable of mainly severe wind gusts.

..Mead.. 10/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Monday, October 12

Outlook Summary

No severe weather is expected Monday through Monday night.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 100721

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

No severe weather is expected Monday through Monday night.

Synopsis

A midlevel low initially over the Columbia Basin is forecast to progress south toward the Sierra Nevada, while an upper-level jet streak develops from the lower-CO Valley into the Upper Midwest. Ahead of the latter feature, a low-amplitude short-wave trough is projected to move from the northern High Plains into the Upper Midwest, embedded within a belt of 40-50 kt midlevel flow. In the low levels, an area of low pressure loosely related to the short-wave trough is expected to develop from the mid-MO Valley into the Upper Midwest along a stationary front. A cold front will trail southwest from that feature, linking with a secondary cyclone over the central High Plains.

Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes

A plume of relatively steep midlevel lapse rates of around 7 C/km will overlie the northern extension of a moistening boundary layer, supporting a corridor of moderate instability by afternoon to the south of the surface low and associated front described in the synopsis. Capping at the base of the lapse-rate plume/EML is likely to inhibit surface-based storm development in the warm sector. However, the 00Z models suggest that a cluster of elevated thunderstorms may persist Monday afternoon into night to the immediate north of the warm sector within a zone of forcing for ascent preceding the short-wave trough. While a few strong storms capable of small hail appear possible, marginal parcel buoyancy and only modest cloud-bearing shear are expected to limit the threat for severe weather.

..Mead.. 10/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, October 13

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100820 SPC AC 100820

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

The 00Z models have slowed the progression of an upper low and associated trough from the Great Basin into the central Rockies on Days 4 and 5/Tuesday and Wednesday. By Day 6/Thursday and beyond, model spread increases in the handling of that midlevel system, leading to greater uncertainty in the evolution of the large-scale pattern.

Day 4/Tuesday

There is some model signal that a subtle disturbance embedded within a belt of enhanced mid/upper-level flow will progress from the southern Rockies into the central High Plains, aiding in the deepening of a lee cyclone over southeast CO. Elsewhere, a low-amplitude disturbance is forecast to advance from the Great Lakes into the Northeast, in tandem with another surface low. A frontal system will connect the two lows, stretching from the lower Great Lakes through the OH Valley into the central Plains. A dryline will extend south from the lee cyclone to along the TX-NM border. A moist and unstable air mass will reside south of the front, especially over the central and southern Plains, where richer boundary-layer moisture is expected to reside.

Isolated severe storms appear possible along the front Tuesday afternoon and evening, especially in the Northeast, and from the lower-MO Valley into the central and southern Plains. The most probable location for organized severe storm potential is over the southern High Plains in the vicinity of the lee cyclone and strengthening low-level jet where stronger forcing for ascent and vertical shear will coincide with a moderately unstable air mass.

### Day 5/Wednesday

The slowing of the upper-air system and the potential for thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday morning lead to greater uncertainty in where the strongest instability will develop by afternoon. Isolated severe storms appear possible along and south of a surface front from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the central and southern Plains. However, confidence in delineating an area of more concentrated severe weather potential has diminished. And as such, the previously included 15% contour will be removed for this forecast update.

### Days 6 through 8/Thursday through Saturday

As alluded to above, spread increases across the models (especially the deterministic solutions) in the handling of the central Rockies low/trough. However, the general signal is for a trend toward a less-favorable synoptic pattern for severe storms by next weekend.

..Mead.. 10/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, October 14

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100820 SPC AC 100820

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

The 00Z models have slowed the progression of an upper low and associated trough from the Great Basin into the central Rockies on Days 4 and 5/Tuesday and Wednesday. By Day 6/Thursday and beyond, model spread increases in the handling of that midlevel system, leading to greater uncertainty in the evolution of the large-scale pattern.

Day 4/Tuesday

There is some model signal that a subtle disturbance embedded within a belt of enhanced mid/upper-level flow will progress from the southern Rockies into the central High Plains, aiding in the deepening of a lee cyclone over southeast CO. Elsewhere, a low-amplitude disturbance is forecast to advance from the Great Lakes into the Northeast, in tandem with another surface low. A frontal system will connect the two lows, stretching from the lower Great Lakes through the OH Valley into the central Plains. A dryline will extend south from the lee cyclone to along the TX-NM border. A moist and unstable air mass will reside south of the front, especially over the central and southern Plains, where richer boundary-layer moisture is expected to reside.

Isolated severe storms appear possible along the front Tuesday afternoon and evening, especially in the Northeast, and from the lower-MO Valley into the central and southern Plains. The most probable location for organized severe storm potential is over the southern High Plains in the vicinity of the lee cyclone and strengthening low-level jet where stronger forcing for ascent and vertical shear will coincide with a moderately unstable air mass.

### Day 5/Wednesday

The slowing of the upper-air system and the potential for thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday morning lead to greater uncertainty in where the strongest instability will develop by afternoon. Isolated severe storms appear possible along and south of a surface front from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the central and southern Plains. However, confidence in delineating an area of more concentrated severe weather potential has diminished. And as such, the previously included 15% contour will be removed for this forecast update.

### Days 6 through 8/Thursday through Saturday

As alluded to above, spread increases across the models (especially the deterministic solutions) in the handling of the central Rockies low/trough. However, the general signal is for a trend toward a less-favorable synoptic pattern for severe storms by next weekend.

..Mead.. 10/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Thursday, October 15

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100820 SPC AC 100820

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

The 00Z models have slowed the progression of an upper low and associated trough from the Great Basin into the central Rockies on Days 4 and 5/Tuesday and Wednesday. By Day 6/Thursday and beyond, model spread increases in the handling of that midlevel system, leading to greater uncertainty in the evolution of the large-scale pattern.

Day 4/Tuesday

There is some model signal that a subtle disturbance embedded within a belt of enhanced mid/upper-level flow will progress from the southern Rockies into the central High Plains, aiding in the deepening of a lee cyclone over southeast CO. Elsewhere, a low-amplitude disturbance is forecast to advance from the Great Lakes into the Northeast, in tandem with another surface low. A frontal system will connect the two lows, stretching from the lower Great Lakes through the OH Valley into the central Plains. A dryline will extend south from the lee cyclone to along the TX-NM border. A moist and unstable air mass will reside south of the front, especially over the central and southern Plains, where richer boundary-layer moisture is expected to reside.

Isolated severe storms appear possible along the front Tuesday afternoon and evening, especially in the Northeast, and from the lower-MO Valley into the central and southern Plains. The most probable location for organized severe storm potential is over the southern High Plains in the vicinity of the lee cyclone and strengthening low-level jet where stronger forcing for ascent and vertical shear will coincide with a moderately unstable air mass.

### Day 5/Wednesday

The slowing of the upper-air system and the potential for thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday morning lead to greater uncertainty in where the strongest instability will develop by afternoon. Isolated severe storms appear possible along and south of a surface front from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the central and southern Plains. However, confidence in delineating an area of more concentrated severe weather potential has diminished. And as such, the previously included 15% contour will be removed for this forecast update.

### Days 6 through 8/Thursday through Saturday

As alluded to above, spread increases across the models (especially the deterministic solutions) in the handling of the central Rockies low/trough. However, the general signal is for a trend toward a less-favorable synoptic pattern for severe storms by next weekend.

..Mead.. 10/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Friday, October 16

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100820 SPC AC 100820

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

The 00Z models have slowed the progression of an upper low and associated trough from the Great Basin into the central Rockies on Days 4 and 5/Tuesday and Wednesday. By Day 6/Thursday and beyond, model spread increases in the handling of that midlevel system, leading to greater uncertainty in the evolution of the large-scale pattern.

Day 4/Tuesday

There is some model signal that a subtle disturbance embedded within a belt of enhanced mid/upper-level flow will progress from the southern Rockies into the central High Plains, aiding in the deepening of a lee cyclone over southeast CO. Elsewhere, a low-amplitude disturbance is forecast to advance from the Great Lakes into the Northeast, in tandem with another surface low. A frontal system will connect the two lows, stretching from the lower Great Lakes through the OH Valley into the central Plains. A dryline will extend south from the lee cyclone to along the TX-NM border. A moist and unstable air mass will reside south of the front, especially over the central and southern Plains, where richer boundary-layer moisture is expected to reside.

Isolated severe storms appear possible along the front Tuesday afternoon and evening, especially in the Northeast, and from the lower-MO Valley into the central and southern Plains. The most probable location for organized severe storm potential is over the southern High Plains in the vicinity of the lee cyclone and strengthening low-level jet where stronger forcing for ascent and vertical shear will coincide with a moderately unstable air mass.

### Day 5/Wednesday

The slowing of the upper-air system and the potential for thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday morning lead to greater uncertainty in where the strongest instability will develop by afternoon. Isolated severe storms appear possible along and south of a surface front from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the central and southern Plains. However, confidence in delineating an area of more concentrated severe weather potential has diminished. And as such, the previously included 15% contour will be removed for this forecast update.

### Days 6 through 8/Thursday through Saturday

As alluded to above, spread increases across the models (especially the deterministic solutions) in the handling of the central Rockies low/trough. However, the general signal is for a trend toward a less-favorable synoptic pattern for severe storms by next weekend.

..Mead.. 10/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, October 17

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100820 SPC AC 100820

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

The 00Z models have slowed the progression of an upper low and associated trough from the Great Basin into the central Rockies on Days 4 and 5/Tuesday and Wednesday. By Day 6/Thursday and beyond, model spread increases in the handling of that midlevel system, leading to greater uncertainty in the evolution of the large-scale pattern.

Day 4/Tuesday

There is some model signal that a subtle disturbance embedded within a belt of enhanced mid/upper-level flow will progress from the southern Rockies into the central High Plains, aiding in the deepening of a lee cyclone over southeast CO. Elsewhere, a low-amplitude disturbance is forecast to advance from the Great Lakes into the Northeast, in tandem with another surface low. A frontal system will connect the two lows, stretching from the lower Great Lakes through the OH Valley into the central Plains. A dryline will extend south from the lee cyclone to along the TX-NM border. A moist and unstable air mass will reside south of the front, especially over the central and southern Plains, where richer boundary-layer moisture is expected to reside.

Isolated severe storms appear possible along the front Tuesday afternoon and evening, especially in the Northeast, and from the lower-MO Valley into the central and southern Plains. The most probable location for organized severe storm potential is over the southern High Plains in the vicinity of the lee cyclone and strengthening low-level jet where stronger forcing for ascent and vertical shear will coincide with a moderately unstable air mass.

### Day 5/Wednesday

The slowing of the upper-air system and the potential for thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday morning lead to greater uncertainty in where the strongest instability will develop by afternoon. Isolated severe storms appear possible along and south of a surface front from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the central and southern Plains. However, confidence in delineating an area of more concentrated severe weather potential has diminished. And as such, the previously included 15% contour will be removed for this forecast update.

### Days 6 through 8/Thursday through Saturday

As alluded to above, spread increases across the models (especially the deterministic solutions) in the handling of the central Rockies low/trough. However, the general signal is for a trend toward a less-favorable synoptic pattern for severe storms by next weekend.

..Mead.. 10/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

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National Risk Overview

Saturday, October 10

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: low

WIND: 5%

Sunday, October 11

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: low

WIND: 15%

Monday, October 12

ANY SEVERE: low

Tuesday, October 13

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Wednesday, October 14

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Thursday, October 15

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, October 16

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Saturday, October 17

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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