Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, May 25
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today for parts of the central Gulf Coast/Southeast, far west Texas and southern New Mexico, central Plains into southwest Minnesota, the Minnesota Arrowhead, and northern Rockies.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 251939
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026
Valid 252000Z - 261200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST…FAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO…CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA…THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD…AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today for parts of the central Gulf Coast/Southeast, far west Texas and southern New Mexico, central Plains into southwest Minnesota, the Minnesota Arrowhead, and northern Rockies.
Severe probabilities were reduced over parts of eastern MS and western AL where widespread precipitation is limiting destabilization. Elsewhere, no significant changes were made to the ongoing outlook.
..Hart.. 05/25/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026/
Central Plains/Mid Missouri Valley
Isolated thunderstorms may develop late this afternoon from NE into southwest MN/northwest IA along a weak surface trough. Large-scale ascent will remain negligible due to the close proximity to a mid-level anticyclone situated over the lower MO Valley. However, ample instability and adequate deep-layer shear may still yield a localized risk for large hail/severe gusts with the stronger multicells, before this activity weakens by late evening.
Minnesota Arrowhead
The glancing influence of an upper trough moving from Manitoba into northern Ontario should encourage at least isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon across the MN Arrowhead vicinity. Steep mid-level lapse rates present on the 12Z INL observed sounding and daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass will support moderate to locally strong instability. Sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization will foster an isolated risk for large hail and damaging winds with the stronger cores.
Central Gulf Coast/Southeast
A weak MCV and associated upper trough will move inland over the central Gulf Coast states today. Modest flow enhancement and minor low-level hodograph curvature may aid in occasional strong/gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado with convection spreading northward this afternoon. But, poor lapse rates aloft noted on 12Z LIX/JAN/BMX/FFC observed soundings will likely temper the development of more robust instability, and should limit the overall severe risk.
Northern Rockies
An upper trough/low will overspread the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies as it digs southeastward through tonight. While low-level moisture will remain limited, daytime heating will foster weak buoyancy and the development of high-based convection across the northern Rockies this afternoon. Steepened low/mid-level lapse rates may support occasionally strong to severe downdraft winds with this activity.
Southern New Mexico/Far West Texas
An upper trough over AZ late this morning will move slowly north-northeastward across the Southwest through the period. Thunderstorms that develop this afternoon across northern Mexico and southwest NM will encounter a gradually destabilizing airmass downstream into far west TX. Isolated strong to severe gusts may occur as low-level lapse rates become steepened.
Central Texas
A weak MCV noted in visible satellite imagery late this morning is slowly meandering across central TX. While additional convection with locally gusty winds may develop this afternoon in its proximity, weak shear should limit the threat for organized severe thunderstorms.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Tuesday, May 26
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe storms will be possible across West/southwest Texas into south-central Texas Tuesday afternoon and night, including potential for large hail, damaging winds and a couple tornadoes.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 251732
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST/SOUTHWEST TEXAS
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe storms will be possible across West/southwest Texas into south-central Texas Tuesday afternoon and night, including potential for large hail, damaging winds and a couple tornadoes.
Eastern New Mexico and West/south-central Texas
Forcing for ascent will arrive into the region Tuesday afternoon via a lead shortwave trough, with increasing thunderstorm development expected from the Davis Mountains to the Edwards Plateau and to the southern Permian Basin. Moderate instability and steep low to mid-level lapse rates are forecast across the region, with increasing deep layer shear to around 30-40 kt. Mode will likely include initially discrete supercells and multicell clusters capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts, along with a tornado risk as low-level winds/SRH increase particularly late in the day across parts of the Permian Basin. Storms should grow upscale by evening as they progress east-southeastward Tuesday night toward south-central Texas with at least some continued severe potential.
Montana/Northern Intermountain West
Scattered thunderstorms are expected Tuesday afternoon into evening, aided by forcing for ascent related to the amplifying upper trough and the upper-jet exit region. Modest instability and strengthening deep layer shear amid deeply mixed profiles may allow for a few stronger storms with potential for marginally severe hail and locally severe wind gusts.
Upper Midwest including parts of Wisconsin/Minnesota
While influenced by upper ridging and weak overall forcing for ascent, a moist/moderately unstable environment will exist along/south of generally southward-shifting front. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is plausible particularly into peak heating. Diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates, upwards of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE within a weak vertical shear (20-30 kt effective) could yield some pulse-type/multicellular storms capable of marginally severe hail and/or locally damaging winds.
Northern Maine
As a shortwave trough/mid-level jet streak approaches from Quebec, a few strong or locally severe storms could develop into the region Tuesday late afternoon or early evening. Some questions linger regarding the degree of destabilization of timing of relevant features, but this will be reevaluated into the Day 1 time frame for a potential need for severe probabilities.
..Guyer.. 05/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Wednesday, May 27
Outlook Summary
Some severe storms may occur on Wednesday, with the Mid-Atlantic region appearing to have the primary potential for severe storms capable of wind damage Wednesday afternoon and early evening.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 251931
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
### SUMMARY
Some severe storms may occur on Wednesday, with the Mid-Atlantic region appearing to have the primary potential for severe storms capable of wind damage Wednesday afternoon and early evening.
Mid-Atlantic States
Strong to potentially severe storms may occur across the region Wednesday afternoon and evening. This will be as the upstream shortwave trough overspreads a moist/unstable environment along and south of a roughly west/east-oriented front. Damaging winds would likely be the most probable severe-weather risk.
South/southeast Texas to Louisiana
This is currently expected to a be rather complex scenario into the Day 3 time frame with the uncertain timing/location of a potential lingering MCS somewhere across south/southeast Texas to southern Louisiana. Some severe potential could linger across the coastal plain and/or redevelop later Wednesday across southwest Texas and the adjacent southern High Plains via low-level upslope flow, although mid-level winds will be relatively weak.
Northern Intermountain West
Some strong to locally severe storms could again occur Wednesday afternoon and evening within a marginally moist/unstable environment beneath the upper-jet exit region on the periphery of the prominent upper trough expected to be centered over California and Nevada.
Southern Minnesota/southern Wisconsin/northern Iowa
A few strong/severe storms could occur as an unstable environment persists near the southward-shifting front. Such storm development might be aided by a glancing shortwave trough with somewhat strengthening flow aloft. However, overall predictability in this scenario is limited in the Day 3 time frame.
South-central High Plains/Raton Mesa vicinity
A few strong or locally severe storms could occur regionally Wednesday afternoon and evening. However, mid-level lapse rates and deep-layer winds should remain relatively weak, and thus overall severe potential is expected to remain rather low/disorganized.
..Guyer.. 05/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Thursday, May 28
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, May 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, May 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, May 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, May 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, June 1 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250843 SPC AC 250843
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Thursday through D5/Friday
The western low is expected to shift northward again and phase with the northern jet stream D4/Thursday - D5/Friday. There is low confidence in chances for strong to severe storms, pending details on moisture, across the Intermountain West and northern Rockies.
Guidance suggests that as the western trough shifts northward and weak disturbances rotate across the Rockies, lee troughing across the Plains may strengthen D5/Friday, bringing a potential for low end severe risk into the central/northern High Plains. For now confidence in any corridors of organized severe risk remain too low.
A cold front will sag southward across the east coast D4/Thursday through D5/Friday as enhanced flow digs an upper level trough across Quebec southward into the eastern Great Lakes. Some low end severe potential may accompany this frontal passage each day, but uncertainty remains high in overlap of deep layer shear with better moisture/instability.
D6/Saturday through D8/Monday
Toward the end of next weekend D7/Sunday through D8/Monday, ensemble guidance is increasing in confidence for a large scale ridge to build in across the central/western US with rising heights and warming temperatures. Building surface high pressure across the Midwest/Great Lakes may shunt moisture southward to the Gulf states. Should this pattern continue to hold, severe potential will remain low through much of the CONUS.
..Thornton.. 05/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, May 29
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, May 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, May 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, May 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, May 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, June 1 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250843 SPC AC 250843
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Thursday through D5/Friday
The western low is expected to shift northward again and phase with the northern jet stream D4/Thursday - D5/Friday. There is low confidence in chances for strong to severe storms, pending details on moisture, across the Intermountain West and northern Rockies.
Guidance suggests that as the western trough shifts northward and weak disturbances rotate across the Rockies, lee troughing across the Plains may strengthen D5/Friday, bringing a potential for low end severe risk into the central/northern High Plains. For now confidence in any corridors of organized severe risk remain too low.
A cold front will sag southward across the east coast D4/Thursday through D5/Friday as enhanced flow digs an upper level trough across Quebec southward into the eastern Great Lakes. Some low end severe potential may accompany this frontal passage each day, but uncertainty remains high in overlap of deep layer shear with better moisture/instability.
D6/Saturday through D8/Monday
Toward the end of next weekend D7/Sunday through D8/Monday, ensemble guidance is increasing in confidence for a large scale ridge to build in across the central/western US with rising heights and warming temperatures. Building surface high pressure across the Midwest/Great Lakes may shunt moisture southward to the Gulf states. Should this pattern continue to hold, severe potential will remain low through much of the CONUS.
..Thornton.. 05/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, May 30
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, May 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, May 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, May 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, May 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, June 1 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250843 SPC AC 250843
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Thursday through D5/Friday
The western low is expected to shift northward again and phase with the northern jet stream D4/Thursday - D5/Friday. There is low confidence in chances for strong to severe storms, pending details on moisture, across the Intermountain West and northern Rockies.
Guidance suggests that as the western trough shifts northward and weak disturbances rotate across the Rockies, lee troughing across the Plains may strengthen D5/Friday, bringing a potential for low end severe risk into the central/northern High Plains. For now confidence in any corridors of organized severe risk remain too low.
A cold front will sag southward across the east coast D4/Thursday through D5/Friday as enhanced flow digs an upper level trough across Quebec southward into the eastern Great Lakes. Some low end severe potential may accompany this frontal passage each day, but uncertainty remains high in overlap of deep layer shear with better moisture/instability.
D6/Saturday through D8/Monday
Toward the end of next weekend D7/Sunday through D8/Monday, ensemble guidance is increasing in confidence for a large scale ridge to build in across the central/western US with rising heights and warming temperatures. Building surface high pressure across the Midwest/Great Lakes may shunt moisture southward to the Gulf states. Should this pattern continue to hold, severe potential will remain low through much of the CONUS.
..Thornton.. 05/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, May 31
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, May 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, May 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, May 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, May 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, June 1 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250843 SPC AC 250843
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Thursday through D5/Friday
The western low is expected to shift northward again and phase with the northern jet stream D4/Thursday - D5/Friday. There is low confidence in chances for strong to severe storms, pending details on moisture, across the Intermountain West and northern Rockies.
Guidance suggests that as the western trough shifts northward and weak disturbances rotate across the Rockies, lee troughing across the Plains may strengthen D5/Friday, bringing a potential for low end severe risk into the central/northern High Plains. For now confidence in any corridors of organized severe risk remain too low.
A cold front will sag southward across the east coast D4/Thursday through D5/Friday as enhanced flow digs an upper level trough across Quebec southward into the eastern Great Lakes. Some low end severe potential may accompany this frontal passage each day, but uncertainty remains high in overlap of deep layer shear with better moisture/instability.
D6/Saturday through D8/Monday
Toward the end of next weekend D7/Sunday through D8/Monday, ensemble guidance is increasing in confidence for a large scale ridge to build in across the central/western US with rising heights and warming temperatures. Building surface high pressure across the Midwest/Great Lakes may shunt moisture southward to the Gulf states. Should this pattern continue to hold, severe potential will remain low through much of the CONUS.
..Thornton.. 05/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, June 1
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, May 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, May 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, May 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, May 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, June 1 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250843 SPC AC 250843
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Thursday through D5/Friday
The western low is expected to shift northward again and phase with the northern jet stream D4/Thursday - D5/Friday. There is low confidence in chances for strong to severe storms, pending details on moisture, across the Intermountain West and northern Rockies.
Guidance suggests that as the western trough shifts northward and weak disturbances rotate across the Rockies, lee troughing across the Plains may strengthen D5/Friday, bringing a potential for low end severe risk into the central/northern High Plains. For now confidence in any corridors of organized severe risk remain too low.
A cold front will sag southward across the east coast D4/Thursday through D5/Friday as enhanced flow digs an upper level trough across Quebec southward into the eastern Great Lakes. Some low end severe potential may accompany this frontal passage each day, but uncertainty remains high in overlap of deep layer shear with better moisture/instability.
D6/Saturday through D8/Monday
Toward the end of next weekend D7/Sunday through D8/Monday, ensemble guidance is increasing in confidence for a large scale ridge to build in across the central/western US with rising heights and warming temperatures. Building surface high pressure across the Midwest/Great Lakes may shunt moisture southward to the Gulf states. Should this pattern continue to hold, severe potential will remain low through much of the CONUS.
..Thornton.. 05/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, May 25
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Tuesday, May 26
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Wednesday, May 27
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Thursday, May 28
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, May 29
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, May 30
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, May 31
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, June 1
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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