Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, February 26
Outlook Summary
Scattered thunderstorms, a few severe, are expected to continue from the ArkLaMiss into north-central Alabama this evening. A few storms may produce hail and locally strong wind gusts.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 270035
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0635 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026
Valid 270100Z - 271200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX TO NORTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA
### SUMMARY
Scattered thunderstorms, a few severe, are expected to continue from the ArkLaMiss into north-central Alabama this evening. A few storms may produce hail and locally strong wind gusts.
01z Update
Notable midlevel short-wave trough is digging southeast across northern OK/southern MO early this evening. Synoptic front has settled south to a position from southeast TN-northern MS-central AR. While LLJ is primarily focused off the NC coast, weak low-level warm advection is noted across the Mid-south ahead of the progressive short wave. Scattered convection has developed along this corridor, and several supercells are noted from east central AR to northern AL. Latest MRMS data suggests large hail is observed with the most robust updrafts golf ball size hail has been reported with a few of these supercells. While scattered convection will continue ahead of the digging short wave, nocturnal cooling should begin to affect updraft strength a bit such that overall intensity of this activity is expected to gradually weaken. Even so, hail/wind are expected through at least mid evening until low-level lapse rates begin to adjust to cooling surface temperatures.
..Darrow.. 02/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Friday, February 27
Outlook Summary
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected over parts of the Southeast and Florida Peninsula on Friday. Severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 261725
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected over parts of the Southeast and Florida Peninsula on Friday. Severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast.
Synopsis
A diffuse cold front analyzed in mid-morning surface observations across the southern Appalachians and mid-MS River Valley is expected to push southeast over the next 24 hours in a tandem with an upper-level shortwave trough. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Friday morning along the front from southern AL and the FL Panhandle into southern GA, but some abatement through the early-morning diurnal buoyancy minimum is anticipated. Re-intensification of lingering convection and/or development of additional thunderstorms is expected along the FL Peninsula through the afternoon hours as modest heating yields SBCAPE values around 500 J/kg to perhaps 1000 J/kg across southern FL. Broad-scale ascent associated with the passing upper wave will persist through the overnight hours; however, low-level convergence will steadily diminish along the stalling, frontolytic frontal zone, favoring mainly isolated to periodically scattered thunderstorms. An unfavorable displacement of the greater buoyancy across central/southern FL with the stronger mid-level flow further north will limit the potential for organized/severe convection.
..Moore.. 02/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Saturday, February 28
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms will be possible across the Florida Peninsula and across northern California and southern Oregon on Saturday. Additional thunderstorms may be possible across the Southern Plains Saturday evening into early Sunday morning.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 261926
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026
Valid 281200Z - 011200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms will be possible across the Florida Peninsula and across northern California and southern Oregon on Saturday. Additional thunderstorms may be possible across the Southern Plains Saturday evening into early Sunday morning.
Synopsis
A persistent northwest flow regime will continue across the CONUS well into the weekend with continued upper ridging over the Southwest/West Coast and the maintenance of a long-wave trough over the East. Within this flow regime, several embedded disturbances will support areas of convection, namely over the Florida Peninsula and across northern California and adjacent portions of OR and NV. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible across parts of the southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau within a low-level warm advection regime.
FL Peninsula
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear likely through the day along the FL Peninsula as ascent associated with a de-amplifying upper wave persists over a buoyant and weakly capped environment. Although some hodograph elongation is noted in recent forecast soundings, confidence in updraft intensity is limited due to modest mid-level lapse rates and weak low-level convergence/forcing for ascent. Any appreciable severe threat would most likely manifest along the FL east coast where sea-breeze convergence may focus thunderstorm development, but confidence in this potential is too limited at this time for risk probabilities.
Oklahoma into the Ozark Plateau
Zonal flow across the central Rockies will promote steady lee troughing along the High Plains through late Saturday night. In response, warm/moist air advection is expected to increase through the lowest few kilometers as a plume of low to mid-50s dewpoints spreads north into OK within a southerly flow regime. Isentropic ascent within a weak deformation zone at around 850 mb will likely be the impetus for thunderstorm development within the destabilizing air mass by Saturday evening. The quality of moisture return/destabilization remains uncertain due to notable spread in guidance, which lends low confidence in overall storm coverage and intensity at this time. However, thunder probabilities were maintained/introduced where agreement between long-range ensembles and extended-range CAMs appears greatest.
Northern CA into OR and NV
A shortwave trough is forecast to crest the axis of the persistent upper ridge in place along the CA coast. Cold mid-level temperatures under the upper low coupled with an influx of Pacific moisture through a deep layer should support convective elements within broader precipitation bands. Forecast soundings suggest buoyancy profiles will remain too limited to support intense convection, which should preclude a severe threat.
..Moore.. 02/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Sunday, March 1
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, March 1 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, March 2 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, March 3 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, March 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, March 5 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260956 SPC AC 260956
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Early in the forecast period a transition across the western US will take place as the low-amplitude ridge over the Great Basin/Southwest shifts eastward, giving way to an amplifying trough over the West. Several speed maxima are forecast to traverse the flow while it remains primarily northwesterly over the central US early in the period. At the surface, uncertainty remains regarding the southern extent of the arctic front pushing into the Plains on Day 3. Uncertainties in the position of this front will cause low confidence in the projected quality of the low-level moisture recovery across the southern Plains through Tuesday. As the upper-air pattern across the central US transitions from northwesterly to southwesterly, and return flow commenses, the shallow nature of the modified arctic airmass may initially limit the northward penetration of the richest theta-e air.
As the period progresses into Wednesday and Thursday, ensemble guidance remains in general agreement regarding the transition to an amplified western trough and central-to-eastern ridge. However, the timing and phasing of individual shortwaves moving into the Plains remains a source of forecast uncertainty.
The first meaningful shortwave is forecast to eject into the Plains early Wednesday, inducing surface cyclogenesis that should support a northward advancement of the warm sector. Any severe risk with this trough on Wednesday (Day 7) will be predicated on the evolution of the moisture return on prior days.
On Thursday, a second, more potent trough is forecast to approach the Plains. Current ensemble guidance shows quite a bit more variance with the timing, amplitude, and evolution of this second trough. Some guidance brings this wave out as single, potent trough, with other guidance suggesting a series of more subtle shortwave troughs ejecting into the Plains from Thursday into Saturday. These discrepancies will have an impact on the location, timing, and magnitude of any potential severe weather threat.
Despite these timing differences, the synoptic setup (increasing low-level moisture, strengthening southwest flow aloft, repeated cyclogenesis) is favorable for organized severe weather over the Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. While the severe weather threat should increase by Wednesday and Thursday (Days 7 and 8), the specific orientation of frontal boundaries and the northward extent of the moisture return will be highly dependent on the evolution of the upper-lows. Given that models tend to struggle with handling the details of pattern changes, will hold off on trying to highlight any specific corridor for severe probabilities for Wednesday and Thursday at this time.
..Marsh.. 02/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, March 2
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, March 1 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, March 2 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, March 3 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, March 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, March 5 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260956 SPC AC 260956
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Early in the forecast period a transition across the western US will take place as the low-amplitude ridge over the Great Basin/Southwest shifts eastward, giving way to an amplifying trough over the West. Several speed maxima are forecast to traverse the flow while it remains primarily northwesterly over the central US early in the period. At the surface, uncertainty remains regarding the southern extent of the arctic front pushing into the Plains on Day 3. Uncertainties in the position of this front will cause low confidence in the projected quality of the low-level moisture recovery across the southern Plains through Tuesday. As the upper-air pattern across the central US transitions from northwesterly to southwesterly, and return flow commenses, the shallow nature of the modified arctic airmass may initially limit the northward penetration of the richest theta-e air.
As the period progresses into Wednesday and Thursday, ensemble guidance remains in general agreement regarding the transition to an amplified western trough and central-to-eastern ridge. However, the timing and phasing of individual shortwaves moving into the Plains remains a source of forecast uncertainty.
The first meaningful shortwave is forecast to eject into the Plains early Wednesday, inducing surface cyclogenesis that should support a northward advancement of the warm sector. Any severe risk with this trough on Wednesday (Day 7) will be predicated on the evolution of the moisture return on prior days.
On Thursday, a second, more potent trough is forecast to approach the Plains. Current ensemble guidance shows quite a bit more variance with the timing, amplitude, and evolution of this second trough. Some guidance brings this wave out as single, potent trough, with other guidance suggesting a series of more subtle shortwave troughs ejecting into the Plains from Thursday into Saturday. These discrepancies will have an impact on the location, timing, and magnitude of any potential severe weather threat.
Despite these timing differences, the synoptic setup (increasing low-level moisture, strengthening southwest flow aloft, repeated cyclogenesis) is favorable for organized severe weather over the Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. While the severe weather threat should increase by Wednesday and Thursday (Days 7 and 8), the specific orientation of frontal boundaries and the northward extent of the moisture return will be highly dependent on the evolution of the upper-lows. Given that models tend to struggle with handling the details of pattern changes, will hold off on trying to highlight any specific corridor for severe probabilities for Wednesday and Thursday at this time.
..Marsh.. 02/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, March 3
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, March 1 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, March 2 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, March 3 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, March 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, March 5 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260956 SPC AC 260956
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Early in the forecast period a transition across the western US will take place as the low-amplitude ridge over the Great Basin/Southwest shifts eastward, giving way to an amplifying trough over the West. Several speed maxima are forecast to traverse the flow while it remains primarily northwesterly over the central US early in the period. At the surface, uncertainty remains regarding the southern extent of the arctic front pushing into the Plains on Day 3. Uncertainties in the position of this front will cause low confidence in the projected quality of the low-level moisture recovery across the southern Plains through Tuesday. As the upper-air pattern across the central US transitions from northwesterly to southwesterly, and return flow commenses, the shallow nature of the modified arctic airmass may initially limit the northward penetration of the richest theta-e air.
As the period progresses into Wednesday and Thursday, ensemble guidance remains in general agreement regarding the transition to an amplified western trough and central-to-eastern ridge. However, the timing and phasing of individual shortwaves moving into the Plains remains a source of forecast uncertainty.
The first meaningful shortwave is forecast to eject into the Plains early Wednesday, inducing surface cyclogenesis that should support a northward advancement of the warm sector. Any severe risk with this trough on Wednesday (Day 7) will be predicated on the evolution of the moisture return on prior days.
On Thursday, a second, more potent trough is forecast to approach the Plains. Current ensemble guidance shows quite a bit more variance with the timing, amplitude, and evolution of this second trough. Some guidance brings this wave out as single, potent trough, with other guidance suggesting a series of more subtle shortwave troughs ejecting into the Plains from Thursday into Saturday. These discrepancies will have an impact on the location, timing, and magnitude of any potential severe weather threat.
Despite these timing differences, the synoptic setup (increasing low-level moisture, strengthening southwest flow aloft, repeated cyclogenesis) is favorable for organized severe weather over the Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. While the severe weather threat should increase by Wednesday and Thursday (Days 7 and 8), the specific orientation of frontal boundaries and the northward extent of the moisture return will be highly dependent on the evolution of the upper-lows. Given that models tend to struggle with handling the details of pattern changes, will hold off on trying to highlight any specific corridor for severe probabilities for Wednesday and Thursday at this time.
..Marsh.. 02/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, March 4
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, March 1 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, March 2 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, March 3 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, March 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, March 5 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260956 SPC AC 260956
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Early in the forecast period a transition across the western US will take place as the low-amplitude ridge over the Great Basin/Southwest shifts eastward, giving way to an amplifying trough over the West. Several speed maxima are forecast to traverse the flow while it remains primarily northwesterly over the central US early in the period. At the surface, uncertainty remains regarding the southern extent of the arctic front pushing into the Plains on Day 3. Uncertainties in the position of this front will cause low confidence in the projected quality of the low-level moisture recovery across the southern Plains through Tuesday. As the upper-air pattern across the central US transitions from northwesterly to southwesterly, and return flow commenses, the shallow nature of the modified arctic airmass may initially limit the northward penetration of the richest theta-e air.
As the period progresses into Wednesday and Thursday, ensemble guidance remains in general agreement regarding the transition to an amplified western trough and central-to-eastern ridge. However, the timing and phasing of individual shortwaves moving into the Plains remains a source of forecast uncertainty.
The first meaningful shortwave is forecast to eject into the Plains early Wednesday, inducing surface cyclogenesis that should support a northward advancement of the warm sector. Any severe risk with this trough on Wednesday (Day 7) will be predicated on the evolution of the moisture return on prior days.
On Thursday, a second, more potent trough is forecast to approach the Plains. Current ensemble guidance shows quite a bit more variance with the timing, amplitude, and evolution of this second trough. Some guidance brings this wave out as single, potent trough, with other guidance suggesting a series of more subtle shortwave troughs ejecting into the Plains from Thursday into Saturday. These discrepancies will have an impact on the location, timing, and magnitude of any potential severe weather threat.
Despite these timing differences, the synoptic setup (increasing low-level moisture, strengthening southwest flow aloft, repeated cyclogenesis) is favorable for organized severe weather over the Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. While the severe weather threat should increase by Wednesday and Thursday (Days 7 and 8), the specific orientation of frontal boundaries and the northward extent of the moisture return will be highly dependent on the evolution of the upper-lows. Given that models tend to struggle with handling the details of pattern changes, will hold off on trying to highlight any specific corridor for severe probabilities for Wednesday and Thursday at this time.
..Marsh.. 02/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, March 5
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, March 1 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, March 2 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, March 3 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, March 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, March 5 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260956 SPC AC 260956
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Early in the forecast period a transition across the western US will take place as the low-amplitude ridge over the Great Basin/Southwest shifts eastward, giving way to an amplifying trough over the West. Several speed maxima are forecast to traverse the flow while it remains primarily northwesterly over the central US early in the period. At the surface, uncertainty remains regarding the southern extent of the arctic front pushing into the Plains on Day 3. Uncertainties in the position of this front will cause low confidence in the projected quality of the low-level moisture recovery across the southern Plains through Tuesday. As the upper-air pattern across the central US transitions from northwesterly to southwesterly, and return flow commenses, the shallow nature of the modified arctic airmass may initially limit the northward penetration of the richest theta-e air.
As the period progresses into Wednesday and Thursday, ensemble guidance remains in general agreement regarding the transition to an amplified western trough and central-to-eastern ridge. However, the timing and phasing of individual shortwaves moving into the Plains remains a source of forecast uncertainty.
The first meaningful shortwave is forecast to eject into the Plains early Wednesday, inducing surface cyclogenesis that should support a northward advancement of the warm sector. Any severe risk with this trough on Wednesday (Day 7) will be predicated on the evolution of the moisture return on prior days.
On Thursday, a second, more potent trough is forecast to approach the Plains. Current ensemble guidance shows quite a bit more variance with the timing, amplitude, and evolution of this second trough. Some guidance brings this wave out as single, potent trough, with other guidance suggesting a series of more subtle shortwave troughs ejecting into the Plains from Thursday into Saturday. These discrepancies will have an impact on the location, timing, and magnitude of any potential severe weather threat.
Despite these timing differences, the synoptic setup (increasing low-level moisture, strengthening southwest flow aloft, repeated cyclogenesis) is favorable for organized severe weather over the Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. While the severe weather threat should increase by Wednesday and Thursday (Days 7 and 8), the specific orientation of frontal boundaries and the northward extent of the moisture return will be highly dependent on the evolution of the upper-lows. Given that models tend to struggle with handling the details of pattern changes, will hold off on trying to highlight any specific corridor for severe probabilities for Wednesday and Thursday at this time.
..Marsh.. 02/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, February 26
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Friday, February 27
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Saturday, February 28
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Sunday, March 1
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, March 2
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, March 3
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, March 4
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, March 5
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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