Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, September 5
Outlook Summary
Widely scattered occurrences of large hail and severe wind gusts are expected into tonight over northeast Colorado into parts of western Nebraska, including the Panhandle. Isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging winds remain possible overnight across a broader portion of the northern and central Plains. Damaging wind potential is expected to diminish within the next couple of hours over portions of Kentucky, Georgia, and South Carolina.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 060056
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Sat Sep 05 2026
Valid 060100Z - 061200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO PARTS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA…INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE
### SUMMARY
Widely scattered occurrences of large hail and severe wind gusts are expected into tonight over northeast Colorado into parts of western Nebraska, including the Panhandle. Isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging winds remain possible overnight across a broader portion of the northern and central Plains. Damaging wind potential is expected to diminish within the next couple of hours over portions of Kentucky, Georgia, and South Carolina.
Northern and Central Plains
Separate clusters of thunderstorms, including supercells, are ongoing this evening over the NE Panhandle into northeast CO ahead of a weak mid-level disturbance moving through WY and north-central CO. The 00Z LBF sounding sampled relatively steep lapse rates with MLCAPE of around 2500 J/kg along with a vertically veering wind profile with around 30 kt of deep-layer shear. As such, expect the supercell threat to persist for the next hour or two, prior to storms merging into a larger complex along a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. Large hail up to two inches will be the main hazard in the near-term; however, the potential for severe wind gusts will become more prevalent if an organized cold pool can evolve.
Elsewhere, storms are widely scattered across the Dakotas with the 00Z ABR sounding indicating a moderately unstable, but capped air mass for surface-based parcels. Additional, elevated storms appear possible overnight along the low-level jet axis with a risk for isolated occurrence of large hail and damaging wind gusts.
### Central Georgia into southern South Carolina
Widely scattered thunderstorms are ongoing this evening from south of Atlanta into southern SC, along an outflow boundary remnant from storms earlier today. Isolated occurrences of damaging wind gusts remain possible for the next hour or two before low-level lapse rates begin to weaken with the loss of daytime heating.
### Kentucky
A small cluster of thunderstorms has recently intensified south of the OH River, east of Owensboro, in the vicinity of a weak surface boundary, and ahead of a weak mid-level disturbance approaching the area from the north. Regional 00Z soundings indicate the air mass remains moderately unstable with around 30 kt of deep-layer shear. The ongoing storms will remain capable of strong wind gusts for the next hour or so before the boundary layer begins to stabilize.
..Mead.. 09/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Sunday, September 6
Outlook Summary
Damaging wind gusts are likely across portions of the Southeast Sunday afternoon and early evening. Additional areas at risk for severe wind and hail are across parts of northern Utah northward into Montana and east into the northern Plains and Middle Missouri Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 051730
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Sep 05 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS
### SUMMARY
Damaging wind gusts are likely across portions of the Southeast Sunday afternoon and early evening. Additional areas at risk for severe wind and hail are across parts of northern Utah northward into Montana and east into the northern Plains and Middle Missouri Valley.
Synopsis
A high-amplitude mid-level ridge will persist across the central US on Sunday, with troughing across both the east and west coasts. Embedded within the basal region of the western trough, a closed low should open up and take on a negative tilt as it moves along the northwest periphery of the central ridge.
At the surface, an anticyclone will be located across the upper Great Lakes, ushering in a cooler, drier air mass from the Upper Midwest east across the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. Demarcating the boundary between this continental air mass and the more maritime air mass to the south and west will be a front stretched from the Minnesota-North/South Dakota border south and east to southeast Missouri and then east from there to the East Coast.
### Southeast
A very humid air mass will be in place across the region, with HREF mean dewpoint temperatures in the upper-60Fs to low-70Fs. Diurnal heating will allow afternoon temperatures to warm into the low-to-mid-90Fs, yielding MUCAPE values in excess of 1500 J/kg. (High-resolution guidance is generally in the 1500-2500 J/kg range, with coarser-scale guidance, such as the RAP, showing perhaps as high as 4000 J/kg.)
Scattered thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon as convective temperatures are reached. Precipitable water values around 2 inches and DCAPE values in excess of 1000 J/kg will support heavy, water-laden downbursts capable of scattered wind damage. Slightly better deep-layer shear across portions of Georgia and the Carolinas may support at least transient thunderstorm organization in the form of multi-cell clusters which may pose a slightly greater risk of organized wind damage.
### Mid-Missouri Valley and Northern Plains
Thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the forecast period across portions of the area or develop shortly thereafter. These thunderstorms will likely be driven by strong warm-air advection near the apex of the mid-level ridge. These storms may initially pose a risk of large hail and gusty winds. With time, diurnal heating may support a transition from elevated-to-surface based thunderstorms, increasing the potential for damaging winds, especially as low-level lapse rate steepen. Deep-layer shear will support individual storms moving southeast while the larger-scale evolution will be toward the southwest.
The exact evolution of this convection, in particular where the narrow corridor develops, remains a bit uncertain. As confidence increases in the location of these storms, higher severe weather probabilities may be needed.
### Northwest Utah into Montana
As the western mid-level low opens and takes on a negative tilt as it traverses the northwest periphery of the central US ridge, large-scale ascent will support scattered thunderstorm development across portions of northwest Utah, Idaho, and western Wyoming. Strong mid-level flow (around 50 knots at 500 millibars) coupled with a deep, well-mixed boundary layer will support downward momentum transfer within these thunderstorms capable of producing scattered wind damage. These storms will quickly move northeast into Montana during the evening hours. If coverage of these storms is greater than expected, higher wind probabilities would be warranted in subsequent outlooks.
..Marsh.. 09/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Monday, September 7
Outlook Summary
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern and central Plains into Minnesota on Monday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 051944
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Sat Sep 05 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MINNESOTA
### SUMMARY
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern and central Plains into Minnesota on Monday.
Northern Plains into the Upper Great Lakes
A mid-level shortwave trough will lift northeast on Monday, impinging on the central US ridge. Strong southwesterly mid-level flow associated with the trough will overspread an increasingly warm and moist low-level airmass across the north-central US. Given low-level flow will be more southerly, the resulting vertically veering profiles will result in effective shear ranging from 35 knots to more than 50 knots. Forecast soundings indicate that an elevated mixed layer should advect over the Plains during the day resulting in capping issues for most of the afternoon. However, as cooler mid-level temperatures overspread the unstable and sheared airmass, afternoon thunderstorms will at least be possible. These storms should pose a threat for large hail and, if the storms can tap into the boundary layer, strong thunderstorm winds. As the low-level jet increases during the evening, an increase in storm coverage is expected, with perhaps one or more MCSs evolving across portions of the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota. Isolated large hail and perhaps damaging winds will be possible.
..Marsh.. 09/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Tuesday, September 8
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, September 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, September 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, September 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, September 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, September 12 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050744 SPC AC 050744
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Sat Sep 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-6/Tue-Thu – Central Plains to Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic
An upper shortwave trough will shift east across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes and northeast through Thursday. An associated surface low will mainly remain over Canada, but a trailing cold front will sweep across parts of the central Plains and Upper Midwest on Tuesday, before continuing south and east into Kansas and across the Great Lakes on Wednesday. By Thursday, the boundary is expected to continue south and east across the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Stronger large-scale ascent will likely remain focused near and north of the international border. Furthermore, the corridor of deeper boundary layer moisture may be somewhat limited, especially Tuesday into Wednesday, due to a prior cold frontal passage and surface high pressure over the Midwest. Nevertheless, enhanced deep-layer flow, and corridors of at least modest instability along the cold front could support some severe risk. However, confidence in 15 percent or greater coverage is low at this time frame.
Days 7-8/Fri-Sat – Northern/Central Plains to Upper Midwest
At the end of the period, another upper shortwave trough may dig southeast from the Pacific Northwest and into the Plains. Another, perhaps stronger, cold front could sweep across the Plains and the Mid/Upper MS Valley. Depending on moisture return in the wake of the earlier cold frontal passage, some severe risk could develop during the weekend. Furthermore, large spread exists among various guidance regarding the evolution of the this upper trough, resulting in uncertainty in greater corridors of severe potential.
..Leitman.. 09/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, September 9
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, September 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, September 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, September 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, September 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, September 12 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050744 SPC AC 050744
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Sat Sep 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-6/Tue-Thu – Central Plains to Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic
An upper shortwave trough will shift east across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes and northeast through Thursday. An associated surface low will mainly remain over Canada, but a trailing cold front will sweep across parts of the central Plains and Upper Midwest on Tuesday, before continuing south and east into Kansas and across the Great Lakes on Wednesday. By Thursday, the boundary is expected to continue south and east across the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Stronger large-scale ascent will likely remain focused near and north of the international border. Furthermore, the corridor of deeper boundary layer moisture may be somewhat limited, especially Tuesday into Wednesday, due to a prior cold frontal passage and surface high pressure over the Midwest. Nevertheless, enhanced deep-layer flow, and corridors of at least modest instability along the cold front could support some severe risk. However, confidence in 15 percent or greater coverage is low at this time frame.
Days 7-8/Fri-Sat – Northern/Central Plains to Upper Midwest
At the end of the period, another upper shortwave trough may dig southeast from the Pacific Northwest and into the Plains. Another, perhaps stronger, cold front could sweep across the Plains and the Mid/Upper MS Valley. Depending on moisture return in the wake of the earlier cold frontal passage, some severe risk could develop during the weekend. Furthermore, large spread exists among various guidance regarding the evolution of the this upper trough, resulting in uncertainty in greater corridors of severe potential.
..Leitman.. 09/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, September 10
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, September 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, September 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, September 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, September 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, September 12 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050744 SPC AC 050744
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Sat Sep 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-6/Tue-Thu – Central Plains to Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic
An upper shortwave trough will shift east across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes and northeast through Thursday. An associated surface low will mainly remain over Canada, but a trailing cold front will sweep across parts of the central Plains and Upper Midwest on Tuesday, before continuing south and east into Kansas and across the Great Lakes on Wednesday. By Thursday, the boundary is expected to continue south and east across the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Stronger large-scale ascent will likely remain focused near and north of the international border. Furthermore, the corridor of deeper boundary layer moisture may be somewhat limited, especially Tuesday into Wednesday, due to a prior cold frontal passage and surface high pressure over the Midwest. Nevertheless, enhanced deep-layer flow, and corridors of at least modest instability along the cold front could support some severe risk. However, confidence in 15 percent or greater coverage is low at this time frame.
Days 7-8/Fri-Sat – Northern/Central Plains to Upper Midwest
At the end of the period, another upper shortwave trough may dig southeast from the Pacific Northwest and into the Plains. Another, perhaps stronger, cold front could sweep across the Plains and the Mid/Upper MS Valley. Depending on moisture return in the wake of the earlier cold frontal passage, some severe risk could develop during the weekend. Furthermore, large spread exists among various guidance regarding the evolution of the this upper trough, resulting in uncertainty in greater corridors of severe potential.
..Leitman.. 09/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, September 11
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, September 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, September 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, September 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, September 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, September 12 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050744 SPC AC 050744
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Sat Sep 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-6/Tue-Thu – Central Plains to Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic
An upper shortwave trough will shift east across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes and northeast through Thursday. An associated surface low will mainly remain over Canada, but a trailing cold front will sweep across parts of the central Plains and Upper Midwest on Tuesday, before continuing south and east into Kansas and across the Great Lakes on Wednesday. By Thursday, the boundary is expected to continue south and east across the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Stronger large-scale ascent will likely remain focused near and north of the international border. Furthermore, the corridor of deeper boundary layer moisture may be somewhat limited, especially Tuesday into Wednesday, due to a prior cold frontal passage and surface high pressure over the Midwest. Nevertheless, enhanced deep-layer flow, and corridors of at least modest instability along the cold front could support some severe risk. However, confidence in 15 percent or greater coverage is low at this time frame.
Days 7-8/Fri-Sat – Northern/Central Plains to Upper Midwest
At the end of the period, another upper shortwave trough may dig southeast from the Pacific Northwest and into the Plains. Another, perhaps stronger, cold front could sweep across the Plains and the Mid/Upper MS Valley. Depending on moisture return in the wake of the earlier cold frontal passage, some severe risk could develop during the weekend. Furthermore, large spread exists among various guidance regarding the evolution of the this upper trough, resulting in uncertainty in greater corridors of severe potential.
..Leitman.. 09/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, September 12
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, September 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, September 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, September 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, September 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, September 12 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050744 SPC AC 050744
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Sat Sep 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-6/Tue-Thu – Central Plains to Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic
An upper shortwave trough will shift east across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes and northeast through Thursday. An associated surface low will mainly remain over Canada, but a trailing cold front will sweep across parts of the central Plains and Upper Midwest on Tuesday, before continuing south and east into Kansas and across the Great Lakes on Wednesday. By Thursday, the boundary is expected to continue south and east across the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Stronger large-scale ascent will likely remain focused near and north of the international border. Furthermore, the corridor of deeper boundary layer moisture may be somewhat limited, especially Tuesday into Wednesday, due to a prior cold frontal passage and surface high pressure over the Midwest. Nevertheless, enhanced deep-layer flow, and corridors of at least modest instability along the cold front could support some severe risk. However, confidence in 15 percent or greater coverage is low at this time frame.
Days 7-8/Fri-Sat – Northern/Central Plains to Upper Midwest
At the end of the period, another upper shortwave trough may dig southeast from the Pacific Northwest and into the Plains. Another, perhaps stronger, cold front could sweep across the Plains and the Mid/Upper MS Valley. Depending on moisture return in the wake of the earlier cold frontal passage, some severe risk could develop during the weekend. Furthermore, large spread exists among various guidance regarding the evolution of the this upper trough, resulting in uncertainty in greater corridors of severe potential.
..Leitman.. 09/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, September 5
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Sunday, September 6
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Monday, September 7
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Tuesday, September 8
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, September 9
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, September 10
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, September 11
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, September 12
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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