Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, November 12
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe hail, a couple of tornadoes, and perhaps damaging winds remain possible across parts of southeastern Pennsylvania and southern/central New Jersey this afternoon.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 5%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 122000
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026
Valid 122000Z - 131200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe hail, a couple of tornadoes, and perhaps damaging winds remain possible across parts of southeastern Pennsylvania and southern/central New Jersey this afternoon.
20Z Update
The primary change with this update was trimming severe-thunderstorm probabilities across parts of eastern MD and DE, as the primary severe risk will continue spreading northeastward from far southeastern PA across southern/central NJ through the afternoon – in tandem with the eastward-moving surface low. For details on the near-term severe risk, see MCD #2452 and Tornado Watch #705.
..Weinman.. 11/12/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026/
Eastern PA/NJ/Northern DE
Latest surface analysis shows a developing surface low over northern VA. This low is expected to deepen somewhat through the day and track eastward across NJ as a potent shortwave trough moves into the region. The zone near the surface low and extending eastward along the surface warm front will be a focused region of ascent and destabilization this afternoon, with forecast soundings showing MLCAPE of 500-900 J/kg, steep lapse rates, and considerable low-level shear/helicity profiles. A consensus of morning HRRR/RRFS/REFS solutions show the development of isolated supercell storms in this focused area. The risk area is quite small, but given the consistent guidance have opted for a small SLGT risk to cover the potential threats. Hail is probably the main concern with any persistent supercell structure, but a tornado or two is also possible. Refer to MCD #2451 for further details.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Friday, November 13
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. Friday and Friday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 121707
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. Friday and Friday night.
Synopsis
An upper-level wave currently off the CA coast will progress inland and into the Southwest through the day Friday. A combination of cooling mid-level temperatures and broad ascent ahead of the wave will promote widespread showers and thunderstorms across southern AZ, NM, and into western TX through the day. Latest CAM ensemble and calibrated guidance suggests some wind threat could materialize across southern AZ/NM through the afternoon, and possibly into far West TX during the evening hours. However, these solutions may be overly influenced by recent RRFS solutions, which show more substantial moistening and ascent (and consequently better buoyancy) ahead of the upper wave compared to other guidance. Omitting these solutions, the general consensus is that buoyancy and shear through the CAPE-bearing layer will remain too limited for robust/organized convection.
Elsewhere, occasional lightning flashes appear possible along the northern CA and OR coasts as a secondary upper wave and attendant cool mid-level temperatures overspread the Pacific Northwest. This wave will spread east overnight and may support sporadic lightning flashes across the Great Basin, though lightning coverage will likely remain below 10%.
..Moore.. 11/12/2026
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Saturday, November 14
Outlook Summary
No severe thunderstorms are forecast across the U.S. Saturday and Saturday night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 121918
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
No severe thunderstorms are forecast across the U.S. Saturday and Saturday night.
Synopsis
The upper wave currently approaching the Pacific Northwest is forecast to de-amplify as it migrates east/southeast across the Four Corners and into the southern High Plains through Saturday night. The combination of very limited moisture return ahead of the wave with some degree of mid-level cooling will likely support isolated to scattered thunderstorms from the Four Corners into western TX/OK. Most medium/long-range solutions depict marginal buoyancy profiles that will support weak and shallow convection, but increased spread among guidance regarding the track of the upper low warrants a slight expansion of thunder probabilities. Given strong flow aloft attendant to the upper wave, some severe threat could materialize across the southern High Plains late afternoon/early evening if sufficient mid-level cooling can occur; however, this will be contingent of achieving mid-level temperatures depicted by recent RRFS solutions (which appear to be outliers at this time).
Elsewhere, more sporadic lightning flashes will be possible along the northern CA/OR coast within a persistent southwest flow regime, and along the lower TX Gulf coast within a modest warm advection regime.
..Moore.. 11/12/2026
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Sunday, November 15
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, November 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, November 16 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, November 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, November 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, November 19 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120800 SPC AC 120800
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains on Sunday/Day 4. Ahead of this feature, a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place across parts of south and central Texas eastward to the lower to middle Texas Coast. Thunderstorms that develop within areas of stronger instability, could have potential for isolated severe wind gusts. The trough is forecast to move eastward across the Gulf and through the Southeast from Monday into Tuesday. On those days, thunderstorms are expected to remain mostly offshore from the central Gulf Coast.
Further west on Tuesday/Day 6, an upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the Desert Southwest. Ahead of this trough, thunderstorms will be possible across parts of southern California and Arizona during the day, and in the southern Rockies Tuesday night. Uncertainty increases on Wednesday and Thursday, but it appears the trough in the Desert Southwest could move into the Great Plains. If this were to occur, thunderstorms would be possible in parts of the southern Plains on Thursday as the trough passes.
In spite of the chances for storms across parts of the southern U.S. during the Day 4 to 8 period, predictability concerning severe potential is low at this time.
..Broyles.. 11/12/2026
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Outlook for Monday, November 16
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, November 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, November 16 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, November 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, November 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, November 19 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120800 SPC AC 120800
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains on Sunday/Day 4. Ahead of this feature, a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place across parts of south and central Texas eastward to the lower to middle Texas Coast. Thunderstorms that develop within areas of stronger instability, could have potential for isolated severe wind gusts. The trough is forecast to move eastward across the Gulf and through the Southeast from Monday into Tuesday. On those days, thunderstorms are expected to remain mostly offshore from the central Gulf Coast.
Further west on Tuesday/Day 6, an upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the Desert Southwest. Ahead of this trough, thunderstorms will be possible across parts of southern California and Arizona during the day, and in the southern Rockies Tuesday night. Uncertainty increases on Wednesday and Thursday, but it appears the trough in the Desert Southwest could move into the Great Plains. If this were to occur, thunderstorms would be possible in parts of the southern Plains on Thursday as the trough passes.
In spite of the chances for storms across parts of the southern U.S. during the Day 4 to 8 period, predictability concerning severe potential is low at this time.
..Broyles.. 11/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, November 17
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, November 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, November 16 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, November 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, November 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, November 19 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120800 SPC AC 120800
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains on Sunday/Day 4. Ahead of this feature, a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place across parts of south and central Texas eastward to the lower to middle Texas Coast. Thunderstorms that develop within areas of stronger instability, could have potential for isolated severe wind gusts. The trough is forecast to move eastward across the Gulf and through the Southeast from Monday into Tuesday. On those days, thunderstorms are expected to remain mostly offshore from the central Gulf Coast.
Further west on Tuesday/Day 6, an upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the Desert Southwest. Ahead of this trough, thunderstorms will be possible across parts of southern California and Arizona during the day, and in the southern Rockies Tuesday night. Uncertainty increases on Wednesday and Thursday, but it appears the trough in the Desert Southwest could move into the Great Plains. If this were to occur, thunderstorms would be possible in parts of the southern Plains on Thursday as the trough passes.
In spite of the chances for storms across parts of the southern U.S. during the Day 4 to 8 period, predictability concerning severe potential is low at this time.
..Broyles.. 11/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, November 18
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, November 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, November 16 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, November 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, November 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, November 19 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120800 SPC AC 120800
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains on Sunday/Day 4. Ahead of this feature, a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place across parts of south and central Texas eastward to the lower to middle Texas Coast. Thunderstorms that develop within areas of stronger instability, could have potential for isolated severe wind gusts. The trough is forecast to move eastward across the Gulf and through the Southeast from Monday into Tuesday. On those days, thunderstorms are expected to remain mostly offshore from the central Gulf Coast.
Further west on Tuesday/Day 6, an upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the Desert Southwest. Ahead of this trough, thunderstorms will be possible across parts of southern California and Arizona during the day, and in the southern Rockies Tuesday night. Uncertainty increases on Wednesday and Thursday, but it appears the trough in the Desert Southwest could move into the Great Plains. If this were to occur, thunderstorms would be possible in parts of the southern Plains on Thursday as the trough passes.
In spite of the chances for storms across parts of the southern U.S. during the Day 4 to 8 period, predictability concerning severe potential is low at this time.
..Broyles.. 11/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, November 19
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, November 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, November 16 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, November 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, November 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, November 19 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120800 SPC AC 120800
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains on Sunday/Day 4. Ahead of this feature, a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place across parts of south and central Texas eastward to the lower to middle Texas Coast. Thunderstorms that develop within areas of stronger instability, could have potential for isolated severe wind gusts. The trough is forecast to move eastward across the Gulf and through the Southeast from Monday into Tuesday. On those days, thunderstorms are expected to remain mostly offshore from the central Gulf Coast.
Further west on Tuesday/Day 6, an upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the Desert Southwest. Ahead of this trough, thunderstorms will be possible across parts of southern California and Arizona during the day, and in the southern Rockies Tuesday night. Uncertainty increases on Wednesday and Thursday, but it appears the trough in the Desert Southwest could move into the Great Plains. If this were to occur, thunderstorms would be possible in parts of the southern Plains on Thursday as the trough passes.
In spite of the chances for storms across parts of the southern U.S. during the Day 4 to 8 period, predictability concerning severe potential is low at this time.
..Broyles.. 11/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, November 12
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 5%
- Friday, November 13
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Saturday, November 14
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Sunday, November 15
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, November 16
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, November 17
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, November 18
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, November 19
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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