Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Friday, July 10

Outlook Summary

Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered severe/damaging winds and occasional hail will be possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the southern/central High Plains to the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 101630

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Valid 101630Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE OZARKS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered severe/damaging winds and occasional hail will be possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the southern/central High Plains to the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley.

Southern/Central High Plains

Scattered high-based thunderstorms are forecast later this afternoon in a weak low-level upslope regime. Ample heating due to the void of cloud cover and a high sun angle will facilitate the development of very steep lower tropospheric lapse rates. A cluster or two is forecast to eventually evolve this evening over southeast CO and from the OK-TX Panhandles into far eastern NM. Severe gusts (60-70 mph) will be the primary hazard. Isolated hail may also occur with the stronger cores given moderate deep-layer shear.

Ozarks to the Mid Mississippi Valley

An MCV near the northeast KS/southeast NE border will migrate eastward today and serve as a forcing impetus for thunderstorms this afternoon. Heating in wake of earlier showers/storms will act to destabilize the boundary layer ahead of storms forming in proximity to the MCV. Some modest enhancement of mid-level westerly flow may promote organized storms, including possibly supercells, in addition to organized clusters. Hail and severe gusts will be the primary hazards with this activity.

Tennessee Valley/Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic/Ohio Valley

An MCV moving into the southern Appalachians will likely aid additional convective development this afternoon over the southern Appalachians and into the Piedmont by late afternoon. Multicells capable of localized damaging gusts (50-60 mph) will be the primary threat with the stronger water-loaded downdrafts. A somewhat separate area of thunderstorm development is also forecast farther north across parts of the Mid-Atlantic/OH Valley where multiple weak mid-level perturbations should develop eastward in generally zonal flow aloft. While mid-level winds and related deep-layer shear will be slightly stronger across this region compared to areas farther south, instability should be weaker. Regardless, occasional strong/damaging winds may occur with any thunderstorm clusters that can develop along/south of a front this afternoon across the Mid-Atlantic/OH Valley.

Western Florida Peninsula

A couple of stronger storms may develop along the sea breeze this afternoon. PW near 2 inches will support water-loaded downdrafts capable of localized severe gusts and perhaps wind damage.

Northern Plains/Upper Midwest

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop this afternoon along/near a weak front from parts of eastern SD and vicinity into western MN. Deep-layer shear will be weak and limit storm organization but steepened lapse rates may support an isolated risk for localized severe gusts or marginally severe hail with the stronger cores.

Southeast AZ

Forecast soundings later today show 20-kt northeasterly 500-mb flow atop weak low-level westerly flow. This slight enhancement to flow may aid in storm movement and some cold pool organization with the scattered convection that develops. Steep surface to 400-mb lapse rates may enable a few severe gusts with the stronger cores.

..Smith/Chalmers.. 07/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

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Outlook for Saturday, July 11

Outlook Summary

Severe storms capable of damaging winds will be possible from the Ozark Plateau east into the Tennessee Valley. Surrounding this area, strong to severe storms capable of sporadic occurrences of damaging wind will be possible from the southern High Plains east toward to the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas Saturday afternoon and evening. Isolated severe storms are also possible in southern Arizona.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 101719

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS

### SUMMARY

Severe storms capable of damaging winds will be possible from the Ozark Plateau east into the Tennessee Valley. Surrounding this area, strong to severe storms capable of sporadic occurrences of damaging wind will be possible from the southern High Plains east toward to the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas Saturday afternoon and evening. Isolated severe storms are also possible in southern Arizona.

Synopsis

An upper shortwave trough is forecast over the Mid-MS Valley Saturday morning. This feature is likely to be convectively enhanced by prior day convection, with a surface low/MCV also noted over the region in the vicinity of Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley. This will result in a belt of modestly enhanced westerly flow from the Mid-MS Valley toward the Mid-South. A weak surface front is also forecast to sag southward across the Midwest, while outflow arcs across the Mid-MS Valley/Ozarks toward the OK/KS border. Further east, another upper shortwave trough is forecast to move offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast by evening. Meanwhile, an upper high/ridge will build over the western U.S.

Ozarks to the TN Valley

12z forecast guidance has trended a bit slower with the progression of the upper shortwave trough and southward sagging cold front. As a result, severe probabilities have been expanded northward. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of a surface low and trailing outflow, as well as ahead of the southward-sagging surface front. Increasing midlevel westerlies will support around 25 kt effective shear magnitudes amid a very moist and unstable (1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) airmass. This should foster one or more organized clusters propagating east/southeast through early evening. Damaging gusts will be the main hazards with this activity.

Southern AZ/Southwest NM

Stronger midlevel easterly flow is forecast to the south of an upper high over the Four Corners/Great Basin. Steep low-to-midlevel lapse rates will support 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. PW values near 1 inch are present in forecast soundings, and a deeply mixed boundary layer will support strong downburst winds. Some potential for a forward propagating cluster moving southwest across southern AZ is possible and higher wind probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence increases.

Eastern NM into OK

Modest boundary layer moisture and weak upslope flow will support widely scattered thunderstorm develop along the higher terrain in NM. Strong outflow winds may accompany this activity as it spreads eastward into the High Plains through early evening. Additional isolated storm development is expected further east across northern/central OK near a west-to-east oriented surface boundary. Vertical shear will remain weak, but a very moist airmass (near-70 F dewpoint) will support 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Water-laden downdrafts could help produce strong to isolated severe wind gusts.

Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast

Thunderstorm clusters are expected to develop within modest westerly flow aloft as a shortwave trough moves across the eastern U.S. Vertical shear will remain weak, but sufficient clustering and consolidating outflows/storm interactions could support sporadic strong to severe gusts during the afternoon and early evening.

..Leitman.. 07/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Sunday, July 12

Outlook Summary

Scattered strong-to-severe thunderstorms capable of producing wind damage will be possible across much of the Southeast on Sunday. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of Arizona late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 101904

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX INTO THE SOUTHEAST…AND ACROSS PARTS OF ARIZONA

### SUMMARY

Scattered strong-to-severe thunderstorms capable of producing wind damage will be possible across much of the Southeast on Sunday. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of Arizona late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.

Synopsis

An upper anticyclone will persist across portions of Great Basin into Wyoming. Enhanced easterly flow on the southern periphery of this feature will overspread portions of AZ. Further east, a closed upper low is forecast to develop over the Ohio Valley, with a surface low meandering across KY toward the central Appalachians. An outflow boundary is expected to be oriented across portions of the TN Valley westward into the southern Plains.

ArkLaTex to GA/SC

A very moist airmass will be in place along/south of the surface boundary draped west to east across the region. These upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints and strong heating will support moderate to strong instability and convection should develop by early afternoon along the surface boundary. Vertical shear will remain modest, generally around 20 kt or less, suggesting short-lived single cells and multicells clusters will be possible. High PW values and strong instability will support strong gusts with sporadic wind damage possible.

AZ

Steep midlevel lapse rates and ample midlevel moisture will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development within a weakly unstable airmass. A deeply mixed boundary layer and steep low-level lapse rates will allow for strong outflow winds as convection generally spreads westward across portions of southern into central AZ.

..Leitman.. 07/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Monday, July 13

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100859 SPC AC 100859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

Ensemble guidance continues to indicate that the western US mid-level ridge will build into the north-central US during the first part of the forecast period. Toward the middle and end of the week, this ridge should retrograde westward as a series of mid-level troughs move across the apex of the ridge in central Canada. One particularly strong trough will impact New England on Tuesday into Wednesday.

### Tuesday/Day 5

GEFS and EPS ensemble guidance is in remarkably good agreement that a strong short-wave trough will approach New England during the day on Tuesday and move across the region Tuesday night. Ahead of this trough, both ensemble systems have mean surface temperatures in the 70Fs and 80Fs with surface dewpoints in the mid-to-upper-60Fs across much of the area. The result will be MUCAPE values in the 1000-2000 J/kg range amidst seasonably strong vertical shear. Supporting this are ensemble probabilities greater than 50 percent for the supercell composite index to be greater than 1.

As the trough approaches New England, the expectation is for one or more clusters of storms to develop during the afternoon across portions of Quebec and move into and then across New England during the late afternoon into evening/overnight hours. Although there is some spread within the ensemble regarding the timing of the wave moving across the area, with solutions ranging from afternoon to overnight, the overall environment should remain favorable for damaging thunderstorm winds to occur, even into the early overnight hours.

### Friday/Day 8

Ensemble guidance is beginning to suggest some severe potential across portions of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic region. This area is forecast to be on the eastern periphery of the strong western US ridge and near the basal region of a long-wave trough across eastern Canada and New England. Surface temperatures are expected to range from the upper-80Fs to mid-90Fs with surface dewpoint temperatures in the 60Fs. Parcel trajectories around the western ridge do not favor much in the way of an elevated mixed layer, so scattered thunderstorm development is likely. The magnitude of the severe potential will likely rest on the strength of the deep-layer shear and the number of storms.

..Marsh.. 07/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, July 14

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100859 SPC AC 100859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

Ensemble guidance continues to indicate that the western US mid-level ridge will build into the north-central US during the first part of the forecast period. Toward the middle and end of the week, this ridge should retrograde westward as a series of mid-level troughs move across the apex of the ridge in central Canada. One particularly strong trough will impact New England on Tuesday into Wednesday.

### Tuesday/Day 5

GEFS and EPS ensemble guidance is in remarkably good agreement that a strong short-wave trough will approach New England during the day on Tuesday and move across the region Tuesday night. Ahead of this trough, both ensemble systems have mean surface temperatures in the 70Fs and 80Fs with surface dewpoints in the mid-to-upper-60Fs across much of the area. The result will be MUCAPE values in the 1000-2000 J/kg range amidst seasonably strong vertical shear. Supporting this are ensemble probabilities greater than 50 percent for the supercell composite index to be greater than 1.

As the trough approaches New England, the expectation is for one or more clusters of storms to develop during the afternoon across portions of Quebec and move into and then across New England during the late afternoon into evening/overnight hours. Although there is some spread within the ensemble regarding the timing of the wave moving across the area, with solutions ranging from afternoon to overnight, the overall environment should remain favorable for damaging thunderstorm winds to occur, even into the early overnight hours.

### Friday/Day 8

Ensemble guidance is beginning to suggest some severe potential across portions of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic region. This area is forecast to be on the eastern periphery of the strong western US ridge and near the basal region of a long-wave trough across eastern Canada and New England. Surface temperatures are expected to range from the upper-80Fs to mid-90Fs with surface dewpoint temperatures in the 60Fs. Parcel trajectories around the western ridge do not favor much in the way of an elevated mixed layer, so scattered thunderstorm development is likely. The magnitude of the severe potential will likely rest on the strength of the deep-layer shear and the number of storms.

..Marsh.. 07/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, July 15

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100859 SPC AC 100859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

Ensemble guidance continues to indicate that the western US mid-level ridge will build into the north-central US during the first part of the forecast period. Toward the middle and end of the week, this ridge should retrograde westward as a series of mid-level troughs move across the apex of the ridge in central Canada. One particularly strong trough will impact New England on Tuesday into Wednesday.

### Tuesday/Day 5

GEFS and EPS ensemble guidance is in remarkably good agreement that a strong short-wave trough will approach New England during the day on Tuesday and move across the region Tuesday night. Ahead of this trough, both ensemble systems have mean surface temperatures in the 70Fs and 80Fs with surface dewpoints in the mid-to-upper-60Fs across much of the area. The result will be MUCAPE values in the 1000-2000 J/kg range amidst seasonably strong vertical shear. Supporting this are ensemble probabilities greater than 50 percent for the supercell composite index to be greater than 1.

As the trough approaches New England, the expectation is for one or more clusters of storms to develop during the afternoon across portions of Quebec and move into and then across New England during the late afternoon into evening/overnight hours. Although there is some spread within the ensemble regarding the timing of the wave moving across the area, with solutions ranging from afternoon to overnight, the overall environment should remain favorable for damaging thunderstorm winds to occur, even into the early overnight hours.

### Friday/Day 8

Ensemble guidance is beginning to suggest some severe potential across portions of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic region. This area is forecast to be on the eastern periphery of the strong western US ridge and near the basal region of a long-wave trough across eastern Canada and New England. Surface temperatures are expected to range from the upper-80Fs to mid-90Fs with surface dewpoint temperatures in the 60Fs. Parcel trajectories around the western ridge do not favor much in the way of an elevated mixed layer, so scattered thunderstorm development is likely. The magnitude of the severe potential will likely rest on the strength of the deep-layer shear and the number of storms.

..Marsh.. 07/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

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Outlook for Thursday, July 16

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100859 SPC AC 100859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

Ensemble guidance continues to indicate that the western US mid-level ridge will build into the north-central US during the first part of the forecast period. Toward the middle and end of the week, this ridge should retrograde westward as a series of mid-level troughs move across the apex of the ridge in central Canada. One particularly strong trough will impact New England on Tuesday into Wednesday.

### Tuesday/Day 5

GEFS and EPS ensemble guidance is in remarkably good agreement that a strong short-wave trough will approach New England during the day on Tuesday and move across the region Tuesday night. Ahead of this trough, both ensemble systems have mean surface temperatures in the 70Fs and 80Fs with surface dewpoints in the mid-to-upper-60Fs across much of the area. The result will be MUCAPE values in the 1000-2000 J/kg range amidst seasonably strong vertical shear. Supporting this are ensemble probabilities greater than 50 percent for the supercell composite index to be greater than 1.

As the trough approaches New England, the expectation is for one or more clusters of storms to develop during the afternoon across portions of Quebec and move into and then across New England during the late afternoon into evening/overnight hours. Although there is some spread within the ensemble regarding the timing of the wave moving across the area, with solutions ranging from afternoon to overnight, the overall environment should remain favorable for damaging thunderstorm winds to occur, even into the early overnight hours.

### Friday/Day 8

Ensemble guidance is beginning to suggest some severe potential across portions of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic region. This area is forecast to be on the eastern periphery of the strong western US ridge and near the basal region of a long-wave trough across eastern Canada and New England. Surface temperatures are expected to range from the upper-80Fs to mid-90Fs with surface dewpoint temperatures in the 60Fs. Parcel trajectories around the western ridge do not favor much in the way of an elevated mixed layer, so scattered thunderstorm development is likely. The magnitude of the severe potential will likely rest on the strength of the deep-layer shear and the number of storms.

..Marsh.. 07/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Friday, July 17

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100859 SPC AC 100859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

Ensemble guidance continues to indicate that the western US mid-level ridge will build into the north-central US during the first part of the forecast period. Toward the middle and end of the week, this ridge should retrograde westward as a series of mid-level troughs move across the apex of the ridge in central Canada. One particularly strong trough will impact New England on Tuesday into Wednesday.

### Tuesday/Day 5

GEFS and EPS ensemble guidance is in remarkably good agreement that a strong short-wave trough will approach New England during the day on Tuesday and move across the region Tuesday night. Ahead of this trough, both ensemble systems have mean surface temperatures in the 70Fs and 80Fs with surface dewpoints in the mid-to-upper-60Fs across much of the area. The result will be MUCAPE values in the 1000-2000 J/kg range amidst seasonably strong vertical shear. Supporting this are ensemble probabilities greater than 50 percent for the supercell composite index to be greater than 1.

As the trough approaches New England, the expectation is for one or more clusters of storms to develop during the afternoon across portions of Quebec and move into and then across New England during the late afternoon into evening/overnight hours. Although there is some spread within the ensemble regarding the timing of the wave moving across the area, with solutions ranging from afternoon to overnight, the overall environment should remain favorable for damaging thunderstorm winds to occur, even into the early overnight hours.

### Friday/Day 8

Ensemble guidance is beginning to suggest some severe potential across portions of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic region. This area is forecast to be on the eastern periphery of the strong western US ridge and near the basal region of a long-wave trough across eastern Canada and New England. Surface temperatures are expected to range from the upper-80Fs to mid-90Fs with surface dewpoint temperatures in the 60Fs. Parcel trajectories around the western ridge do not favor much in the way of an elevated mixed layer, so scattered thunderstorm development is likely. The magnitude of the severe potential will likely rest on the strength of the deep-layer shear and the number of storms.

..Marsh.. 07/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

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National Risk Overview

Friday, July 10

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 15%

Saturday, July 11

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 15%

Sunday, July 12

ANY SEVERE: 5%

Monday, July 13

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Tuesday, July 14

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Wednesday, July 15

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Thursday, July 16

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, July 17

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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