Severe Weather Outlook
Hayley here - Do you want to see severe weather in your calendar?
* it's like an add-on for your digital calendar NOT a paper calendar
National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, September 30
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts/some hail and a brief tornado are expected across the southern Plains this afternoon into tonight including portions of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. The potential for a few tornadoes and localized wind damage will also exist across Kansas and possibly far southeast Nebraska.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 301257
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026
Valid 301300Z - 011200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts/some hail and a brief tornado are expected across the southern Plains this afternoon into tonight including portions of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. The potential for a few tornadoes and localized wind damage will also exist across Kansas and possibly far southeast Nebraska.
Central/southern Plains
A mid/upper-level low will move from the southern Rockies toward the central High Plains through tonight. A surface low initially over the southern High Plains is forecast to move only slowly eastward through tonight. A warm front extending northeast of the surface low may move slowly northward through the day, though persistent clouds and precipitation may hinder its advance.
A rather strong low-level jet (50+ kt diurnally) is forecast to slowly shift northeastward across parts of central/eastern Kansas into western Missouri and southeast Nebraska/southwest Iowa by evening. This will help to maintain strong wind profiles in the vicinity of the central Plains effective warm front. Destabilization near the warm front may remain weak due to limited diurnal heating and weak mid-level lapse rates.
While uncertainties remain regarding the disposition of persistent early day precipitation and cloud cover, will defer to the anticipated strength of 0-1km/0-3km AGL winds and related supercell-conducive profiles. Have upgraded portions of central/eastern Kansas into far southeast Nebraska with the notion that multiple tornadoes are a viable possibility, even if destabilization remains muted later today.
Farther south, the coverage and persistence of early-day convection across the southern Plains remains somewhat uncertain, though there may be a tendency for convection to weaken and/or shift northward by early afternoon. The greatest confidence in substantial diurnal destabilization is from southwest Oklahoma into northwest Texas and the Edwards Plateau, where heating of a very moist airmass will result in MLCAPE increasing to near/above 1500 J/kg, despite poor mid-level lapse rates. Renewed storm development is expected from late afternoon into the evening, in advance of the approaching mid/upper-level low. Moderate mid-level flow will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization.
While supercells will be possible initially, generally front-parallel flow and increasing storm coverage will likely lead to more of a linear mode with time. Strong to severe gusts appear to be the most likely hazard, though isolated hail also appears possible across southwest Texas, where somewhat stronger destabilization may occur. Also, while low-level flow will be weaker compared to areas farther north, some increase in effective SRH is expected during the evening, which could support a localized tornado threat within the very moist environment. An isolated severe threat could persist into parts of central Texas/Oklahoma overnight, though diminishing buoyancy with time and eastward extent should result in an eventual weakening trend.
Elsewhere, a few strong to locally severe lower-topped storms could occur across the south-central High Plains pending sufficient destabilization.
..Guyer/Bentley.. 09/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Thursday, October 1
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts will be possible on Thursday across parts of the southern Plains.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 300541
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts will be possible on Thursday across parts of the southern Plains.
Southern Plains
A positively-tilted mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward across the southern Plains on Thursday. At the surface, a cold front will advance south-southeastward across Oklahoma and west Texas. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to lower 70s F will contribute to destabilization along a corridor from central Texas north-northeastward into eastern Oklahoma. As surface temperatures warm, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will possible along and near the instability axis in areas where low-level convergence becomes maximized. By mid to late afternoon, steepening low-level lapse rates will make isolated severe wind gusts a possibility. This threat could continue into the early evening as low-level flow increases. Any wind-damage threat that develops is expected to remain marginal.
..Broyles.. 09/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Friday, October 2
Outlook Summary
No severe thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. on Friday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 300718
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
No severe thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. on Friday.
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough over the Ozarks Friday morning is forecast to weaken and move east-northeastward into the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance southeastward into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Along and to the south of the front, isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop in areas where instability and low-level convergence become maximized during the afternoon. Over the moist airmass, the combination of instability and deep-layer shear is expected to be insufficient for a severe threat.
..Broyles.. 09/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Saturday, October 3
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 3 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, October 4 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, October 5 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, October 6 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, October 7 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300852 SPC AC 300852
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level cyclonic flow pattern will be in place over the weekend across the northeastern U.S., as multiple shortwave troughs move through the larger-scale trough. A cold front will advance southward to near the Gulf Coast. Thunderstorm development will be possible along and near the front during the day on Saturday and Sunday, but no severe threat is expected.
During the upcoming early to mid week, mid-level flow is forecast to become west-northwesterly across much of the U.S. A dry and relatively cool airmass is forecast to be in place over the eastern half of the nation. On the western edge of the high pressure area, low-level moisture advection will be possible across the Great Plains. Thunderstorm development may occur on Tuesday and Wednesday in parts of the central Plains, as a cold front approaches. Although instability and deep-layer shear are not forecast to be sufficient for a substantial severe threat, a few marginally severe storms will be possible in areas that destabilize the most.
..Broyles.. 09/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, October 4
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 3 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, October 4 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, October 5 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, October 6 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, October 7 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300852 SPC AC 300852
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level cyclonic flow pattern will be in place over the weekend across the northeastern U.S., as multiple shortwave troughs move through the larger-scale trough. A cold front will advance southward to near the Gulf Coast. Thunderstorm development will be possible along and near the front during the day on Saturday and Sunday, but no severe threat is expected.
During the upcoming early to mid week, mid-level flow is forecast to become west-northwesterly across much of the U.S. A dry and relatively cool airmass is forecast to be in place over the eastern half of the nation. On the western edge of the high pressure area, low-level moisture advection will be possible across the Great Plains. Thunderstorm development may occur on Tuesday and Wednesday in parts of the central Plains, as a cold front approaches. Although instability and deep-layer shear are not forecast to be sufficient for a substantial severe threat, a few marginally severe storms will be possible in areas that destabilize the most.
..Broyles.. 09/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, October 5
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 3 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, October 4 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, October 5 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, October 6 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, October 7 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300852 SPC AC 300852
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level cyclonic flow pattern will be in place over the weekend across the northeastern U.S., as multiple shortwave troughs move through the larger-scale trough. A cold front will advance southward to near the Gulf Coast. Thunderstorm development will be possible along and near the front during the day on Saturday and Sunday, but no severe threat is expected.
During the upcoming early to mid week, mid-level flow is forecast to become west-northwesterly across much of the U.S. A dry and relatively cool airmass is forecast to be in place over the eastern half of the nation. On the western edge of the high pressure area, low-level moisture advection will be possible across the Great Plains. Thunderstorm development may occur on Tuesday and Wednesday in parts of the central Plains, as a cold front approaches. Although instability and deep-layer shear are not forecast to be sufficient for a substantial severe threat, a few marginally severe storms will be possible in areas that destabilize the most.
..Broyles.. 09/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, October 6
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 3 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, October 4 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, October 5 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, October 6 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, October 7 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300852 SPC AC 300852
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level cyclonic flow pattern will be in place over the weekend across the northeastern U.S., as multiple shortwave troughs move through the larger-scale trough. A cold front will advance southward to near the Gulf Coast. Thunderstorm development will be possible along and near the front during the day on Saturday and Sunday, but no severe threat is expected.
During the upcoming early to mid week, mid-level flow is forecast to become west-northwesterly across much of the U.S. A dry and relatively cool airmass is forecast to be in place over the eastern half of the nation. On the western edge of the high pressure area, low-level moisture advection will be possible across the Great Plains. Thunderstorm development may occur on Tuesday and Wednesday in parts of the central Plains, as a cold front approaches. Although instability and deep-layer shear are not forecast to be sufficient for a substantial severe threat, a few marginally severe storms will be possible in areas that destabilize the most.
..Broyles.. 09/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, October 7
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 3 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, October 4 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, October 5 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, October 6 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, October 7 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300852 SPC AC 300852
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level cyclonic flow pattern will be in place over the weekend across the northeastern U.S., as multiple shortwave troughs move through the larger-scale trough. A cold front will advance southward to near the Gulf Coast. Thunderstorm development will be possible along and near the front during the day on Saturday and Sunday, but no severe threat is expected.
During the upcoming early to mid week, mid-level flow is forecast to become west-northwesterly across much of the U.S. A dry and relatively cool airmass is forecast to be in place over the eastern half of the nation. On the western edge of the high pressure area, low-level moisture advection will be possible across the Great Plains. Thunderstorm development may occur on Tuesday and Wednesday in parts of the central Plains, as a cold front approaches. Although instability and deep-layer shear are not forecast to be sufficient for a substantial severe threat, a few marginally severe storms will be possible in areas that destabilize the most.
..Broyles.. 09/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, September 30
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Thursday, October 1
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Friday, October 2
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Saturday, October 3
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, October 4
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, October 5
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, October 6
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, October 7
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Your Severe Outlook
Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.
Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.
Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.
About Severe Weather Outlook . com
SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.
- tornado hq - live severe weather warnings
- cyclocane - hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones
- tornado solitaire - play cards while you monitor the US severe weather threat
- tertremo - live view of earthquakes around the world
- earthquake solitaire - get live earthquake updates as you play your favorite card game