Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, May 22
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe gusts are possible late this afternoon into the evening in parts of the southern High Plains. A few brief tornadoes are also possible across the Mid South.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 221934
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026
Valid 222000Z - 231200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe gusts are possible late this afternoon into the evening in parts of the southern High Plains. A few brief tornadoes are also possible across the Mid South.
20z Update
Only minor adjustments have been made to the Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk across southwest Kansas based on the current location of the surface cold front. Scattered thunderstorms will increase across the southern High Plains late this afternoon into this evening, posing a risk for damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail.
Across the TN Valley vicinity, sporadic rotating storms may persist another couple of hours and a brief tornado is possible. However, the 30-40 kt low-level jet will continue to shift northward with time and away from the axis of stronger instability. Otherwise, sporadic gusty winds are possible through evening. For more short term details, reference MCDs 825 and 826.
..Leitman.. 05/22/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1104 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026/
TX/OK
A weak upper trough is moving across CO today, with the tail end of large scale forcing spreading across the TX Panhandle. At the surface, southeasterly winds will maintain a moist air mass into the region, where a dryline will become the focus for afternoon thunderstorm development. Weak mid-level winds of 20-30 knots suggest that storms will be a mix of multicell and supercell structures capable of large hail and damaging winds. Merging outflows are expected as activity spreads eastward into western OK and eventually north TX tonight, with a continued risk of locally damaging winds.
Northeast NE/KS/Northwest OK
A cold front is sagging southeastward into KS/NE, where a moist and moderately unstable air mass will be present this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected along/ahead of the front, with a low-end risk of hail in the stronger cells.
TN/MS/AL/GA
A broad area of moderately strong southerly low-level winds are present today over parts of the Mid-South and TN Valley, along with a very moist air mass with dewpoints in the 70s. Forecast soundings show rather weak CAPE, but sufficient low-level shear for some concern for tornadoes today. There have been occasional mesocyclones in the thunderstorms in this region, and that will likely continue through the afternoon as the low-level jet shifts northward into northern AL/middle TN. Overall confidence in the tornado threat suggests the threat remains Marginal, but a tactical upgrade to portions of the area remains possible this afternoon.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Saturday, May 23
Outlook Summary
Scattered strong to potentially severe storms appear possible on Saturday from the Raton Mesa vicinity into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles and southward near the middle Texas Coast. Additional severe thunderstorms will be possible in portions of central Georgia and parts of the Upper Ohio Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 221728
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS…TEXAS HILL COUNTRY INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND MIDDLE TEXAS COAST…GEORGIA INTO UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA…PARTS OF UPPER OHIO VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Scattered strong to potentially severe storms appear possible on Saturday from the Raton Mesa vicinity into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles and southward near the middle Texas Coast. Additional severe thunderstorms will be possible in portions of central Georgia and parts of the Upper Ohio Valley.
Southern High Plains
Moderate mid-level flow across the central Rockies will persist in the wake of a shortwave trough lifting into the northern Plains. Flow will generally weaken with southern extent into the High Plains. Even so, moist southeasterly winds into the higher terrain will promote effective shear around 35 kt. The main question will be the quality of the moisture with convection expected to impact parts of the region on Friday evening into the overnight. The most likely scenario is that isolated storm development occur within the Raton Mesa and evolves eastward/southeastward. Storms would be initially supercells capable of large hail and severe winds. Shear does weaken to the east so some clustering is possible as outflow interact. Another possibility, though more uncertain, is that convection could develop farther southeast along a remnant outflow boundary, but this activity would likely move into an environment with weaker shear quickly.
Upper Ohio Valley
A shortwave trough now in the Mid-South will lift northeast into the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes on Saturday. A modest surface low, though slowly weakening with time, will pull upper 60s F dewpoints into parts of the region. Morning precipitation is expected to clear out and allow for at least filtered surface heating. The enhanced 850 mb winds, proximity to the warm front, and modest effective shear (around 30 kt) could potentially support a stronger storm or two. Though conditional, a brief tornado would be possible in this environment.
Georgia/South Carolina
A weak shortwave trough will move into Georgia. Low 70s F dewpoints and temperatures in the 80s F will support 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE despite weak mid-level lapse rates. Scattered to numerous storms appear possible near the shortwave as well as along the wedge front in South Carolina. Shear will be weak, but a few water-loaded downbursts may produce damaging winds.
Hill Country/South Texas/Middle Texas Coast
A shortwave trough within the subtropical jet will approach the region during the afternoon/early evening. A very moist (70+ dewpoints) airmass will be in place. Isolated to widely scattered convection will be possible from the Rio Grande vicinity and perhaps along the Gulf Breeze front. Effective shear of 30-40 kt and steep low/mid-level lapse rates will support the threat of large hail and severe winds.
..Wendt.. 05/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Sunday, May 24
Outlook Summary
Widely scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible from the southern/central Plains to the southeastern US into the lower Ohio Valley. A few stronger storms may be possible from central Nebraska into southwest Minnesota.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 221927
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
### SUMMARY
Widely scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible from the southern/central Plains to the southeastern US into the lower Ohio Valley. A few stronger storms may be possible from central Nebraska into southwest Minnesota.
Synopsis
Upper-level flow ill become more quasi-zonal on Sunday across the northern tier of the CONUS. Flow for central/southern portions of the U.S. will be much weaker. A surface low within the Canadian Prairie will develop ahead of the stronger shortwave trough off the Northwest coast. This feature will draw at least modest moisture northward into the central and parts of the northern Plains.
Nebraska into Minnesota
Isolated to widely scattered storms are possible along a relatively weak surface trough/theta-e gradient. Forcing for ascent will not be that strong as the modest trough slides east of the region through the day. However, temperatures in the mid/upper 80s F may be sufficient along with the weak surface convergence to initiate storms. Steep mid-level lapse rates, relatively long hodographs, and 30-40 kt of northwesterly shear would suggest large hail potential. The boundary layer will also be well mixed so severe wind gusts will also be possible.
..Wendt.. 05/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Monday, May 25
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, May 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, May 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, May 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, May 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, May 29 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220901 SPC AC 220901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe potential will remain low D4/Monday. Height rises begin across the central US with a high amplitude ridge settling in from the west. Slow moisture return will be ongoing across much of the Plains into the Midwest with widely scattered areas of rainfall and thunderstorms. A few strong to marginally severe storms will be possible, but generally weak flow and subsidence will keep organized storm potential low.
A trough is progged to begin deepening across the Pacific Northwest D5/Tuesday into D6/Wednesday. As the upper low slowly shifts eastward, stronger flow will overspread the Intermountain West into the Northern Rockies, resulting in strengthening lee troughing across the central/northern Plains. Moisture advection will spread northward amid strengthening southerly flow across the central/northern Plains. There remains uncertainty in the northward and westward extent of moisture return and in progression of the western trough. Severe storms may occur each day across some portion of the northern and northern/central High Plains. For now, confidence in exact corridors remains low.
By D7/Thursday-D8/Friday, guidance suggests the western low becomes cut off and slowly wobbles towards the Great Basin before becoming absorbed back into the northern stream. This is likely due to continued high amplitude ridging across the central US. Some severe potential may extend into the eastern US as a cold front shifts southward as flow enhances in the trough across Quebec in the D7-D8 period.
..Thornton.. 05/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, May 26
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, May 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, May 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, May 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, May 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, May 29 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220901 SPC AC 220901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe potential will remain low D4/Monday. Height rises begin across the central US with a high amplitude ridge settling in from the west. Slow moisture return will be ongoing across much of the Plains into the Midwest with widely scattered areas of rainfall and thunderstorms. A few strong to marginally severe storms will be possible, but generally weak flow and subsidence will keep organized storm potential low.
A trough is progged to begin deepening across the Pacific Northwest D5/Tuesday into D6/Wednesday. As the upper low slowly shifts eastward, stronger flow will overspread the Intermountain West into the Northern Rockies, resulting in strengthening lee troughing across the central/northern Plains. Moisture advection will spread northward amid strengthening southerly flow across the central/northern Plains. There remains uncertainty in the northward and westward extent of moisture return and in progression of the western trough. Severe storms may occur each day across some portion of the northern and northern/central High Plains. For now, confidence in exact corridors remains low.
By D7/Thursday-D8/Friday, guidance suggests the western low becomes cut off and slowly wobbles towards the Great Basin before becoming absorbed back into the northern stream. This is likely due to continued high amplitude ridging across the central US. Some severe potential may extend into the eastern US as a cold front shifts southward as flow enhances in the trough across Quebec in the D7-D8 period.
..Thornton.. 05/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, May 27
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, May 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, May 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, May 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, May 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, May 29 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220901 SPC AC 220901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe potential will remain low D4/Monday. Height rises begin across the central US with a high amplitude ridge settling in from the west. Slow moisture return will be ongoing across much of the Plains into the Midwest with widely scattered areas of rainfall and thunderstorms. A few strong to marginally severe storms will be possible, but generally weak flow and subsidence will keep organized storm potential low.
A trough is progged to begin deepening across the Pacific Northwest D5/Tuesday into D6/Wednesday. As the upper low slowly shifts eastward, stronger flow will overspread the Intermountain West into the Northern Rockies, resulting in strengthening lee troughing across the central/northern Plains. Moisture advection will spread northward amid strengthening southerly flow across the central/northern Plains. There remains uncertainty in the northward and westward extent of moisture return and in progression of the western trough. Severe storms may occur each day across some portion of the northern and northern/central High Plains. For now, confidence in exact corridors remains low.
By D7/Thursday-D8/Friday, guidance suggests the western low becomes cut off and slowly wobbles towards the Great Basin before becoming absorbed back into the northern stream. This is likely due to continued high amplitude ridging across the central US. Some severe potential may extend into the eastern US as a cold front shifts southward as flow enhances in the trough across Quebec in the D7-D8 period.
..Thornton.. 05/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, May 28
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, May 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, May 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, May 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, May 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, May 29 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220901 SPC AC 220901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe potential will remain low D4/Monday. Height rises begin across the central US with a high amplitude ridge settling in from the west. Slow moisture return will be ongoing across much of the Plains into the Midwest with widely scattered areas of rainfall and thunderstorms. A few strong to marginally severe storms will be possible, but generally weak flow and subsidence will keep organized storm potential low.
A trough is progged to begin deepening across the Pacific Northwest D5/Tuesday into D6/Wednesday. As the upper low slowly shifts eastward, stronger flow will overspread the Intermountain West into the Northern Rockies, resulting in strengthening lee troughing across the central/northern Plains. Moisture advection will spread northward amid strengthening southerly flow across the central/northern Plains. There remains uncertainty in the northward and westward extent of moisture return and in progression of the western trough. Severe storms may occur each day across some portion of the northern and northern/central High Plains. For now, confidence in exact corridors remains low.
By D7/Thursday-D8/Friday, guidance suggests the western low becomes cut off and slowly wobbles towards the Great Basin before becoming absorbed back into the northern stream. This is likely due to continued high amplitude ridging across the central US. Some severe potential may extend into the eastern US as a cold front shifts southward as flow enhances in the trough across Quebec in the D7-D8 period.
..Thornton.. 05/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, May 29
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, May 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, May 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, May 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, May 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, May 29 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220901 SPC AC 220901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe potential will remain low D4/Monday. Height rises begin across the central US with a high amplitude ridge settling in from the west. Slow moisture return will be ongoing across much of the Plains into the Midwest with widely scattered areas of rainfall and thunderstorms. A few strong to marginally severe storms will be possible, but generally weak flow and subsidence will keep organized storm potential low.
A trough is progged to begin deepening across the Pacific Northwest D5/Tuesday into D6/Wednesday. As the upper low slowly shifts eastward, stronger flow will overspread the Intermountain West into the Northern Rockies, resulting in strengthening lee troughing across the central/northern Plains. Moisture advection will spread northward amid strengthening southerly flow across the central/northern Plains. There remains uncertainty in the northward and westward extent of moisture return and in progression of the western trough. Severe storms may occur each day across some portion of the northern and northern/central High Plains. For now, confidence in exact corridors remains low.
By D7/Thursday-D8/Friday, guidance suggests the western low becomes cut off and slowly wobbles towards the Great Basin before becoming absorbed back into the northern stream. This is likely due to continued high amplitude ridging across the central US. Some severe potential may extend into the eastern US as a cold front shifts southward as flow enhances in the trough across Quebec in the D7-D8 period.
..Thornton.. 05/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, May 22
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Saturday, May 23
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Sunday, May 24
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Monday, May 25
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, May 26
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, May 27
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, May 28
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, May 29
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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