Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, June 16
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are possible today and tonight across multiple parts of the Midwest, as well as on a more isolated basis across the Gulf Coast, south-central Plains and northern Plains.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 161258
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026
Valid 161300Z - 171200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are possible today and tonight across multiple parts of the Midwest, as well as on a more isolated basis across the Gulf Coast, south-central Plains and northern Plains.
Midwest/Great Lakes
A low amplitude shortwave trough will amplify and spread east-southeastward over the Great Lakes today. While overall moisture content will remain modest, steady low-level moistening is expected ahead of a surface low/cold front, and south of a north/northeastward-shifting warm front. This moistening and insolation beneath a developing mid-level dry slot should support a corridor of modest destabilization as the mid-level cold pool (including 500 mb temperatures around -18 to -20C) overspreads the region this afternoon. This environment should become sufficient for a developing broken band of strong/severe low-topped storms including supercells, posing a risk for severe hail/damaging winds and possibly a couple of tornadoes from mid-afternoon through early evening.
Iowa/Upper Midwest late tonight
A categorical Slight Risk has been introduced for what should be a steadily increasing late-night/pre-dawn potential for large hail, at least on isolated basis. This potential should tend to focus across parts of central/eastern Iowa. Exact details of timing/spatial extent of cap erosion are a bit uncertain, but will defer to a significantly strengthening southwesterly low-level jet and east/southeastward-advecting elevated mixed layer and ample source-region elevated buoyancy regarding concern for large hail. This will be as robust warm/moist advection develops and initial height falls arrive into the region early Wednesday with increasing elevated convection probable.
South-central Plains
Near/ahead of the stalling front, boundary-layer moistening may support CAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg across parts of southern Kansas into southwestern Missouri, where mid-level inhibition may remain weak enough through late afternoon/early evening to allow for isolated/widely scattered thunderstorm development. Sufficient vertical shear could support supercell development. Additional severe storm development, at least on an isolated basis, is plausible farther west-southwest later in the afternoon/early evening across northern Oklahoma/southern Kansas into the Texas Panhandle.
Northern Great Plains into Midwest
Models suggest that a corridor of fairly deep boundary-layer mixing will precede the vigorous short wave trough digging across and east-southeast of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies. Associated mid-level forcing for ascent will contribute to sufficient destabilization to support scattered thunderstorm development with potential to produce some hail and scattered strong to severe surface gusts late this afternoon into evening.
Delmarva/coastal Mid-Atlantic
Some strong/locally severe thunderstorms could occur tonight as convection develop near/north of a near-coastal/offshore surface low and northward-advancing warm front. Storms will tend to be elevated inland, but modest buoyancy and strong unidirectional shear through the cloud-bearing layer could yield some hail and/or gusty winds.
Gulf Coast
Strengthening westerly flow, including 20-40 kt in the 850-500 mb layer, is anticipated regionally coincident with a moist boundary layer. As diurnal heating/destabilization occurs, this may support modestly organizing convection, perhaps transient supercell structures, posing a risk for damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or two.
..Guyer/Broyles.. 06/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Wednesday, June 17
Outlook Summary
An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is expected across portions of Illinois and Indiana on Wednesday. Intense tornadoes, swaths of damaging gusts to 80 mph and hail to 2.5 inch diameter are expected.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 15%
wind 30%
hail 30%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 160559
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA
### SUMMARY
An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is expected across portions of Illinois and Indiana on Wednesday. Intense tornadoes, swaths of damaging gusts to 80 mph and hail to 2.5 inch diameter are expected.
Midwest
A volatile environment for severe thunderstorms is expected to develop across portions of the Midwest from IA/MO into IL/IN/OH on Wednesday, with significant all-hazards severe expected.
A mid/upper level shortwave trough initially over the northern Plains early Wednesday will pivot southeast across the Upper Midwest through 00z, and much of the Great Lakes by 12z Thursday. As this occurs, particularly intense mid and upper level flow, especially by June standards, if forecast to increase over the region. A 60-80 kt westerly 500 mb jet stream will overspread much of the Midwest through the evening, before increasing further during the nighttime hours. Furthermore, an impressive southwesterly 850 mb low-level jet around 50-60 kt will be oriented from KS into IA at 12z. This feature will spread east/northeast across IL/IN/OH through evening. Interestingly, the core of the low-level jet may be somewhat displaced to the east of the core warm sector expected to develop across the Mid-MS Valley vicinity, perhaps tied to an early-day shortwave impulse ejecting across IA/IL during the morning. Nevertheless, 40-55 kt 850 mb winds will persist even across the warm sector even as the core of the low-level jet overspreads the Ohio Valley toward Lower MI during the afternoon.
At the surface, an elongated area of low pressure will extend from ND to the Mid-MO valley Wednesday morning. A warm front will extend from northwest IA southeastward across central IL, while a cold front extend from eastern NE into western KS. As this system progresses east through the day, the warm front will lift northward into northern IL/IN/OH and upper 60s/near 70 dewpoints are expected. Aided by steep midlevel lapse rates/cooling aloft, MLCAPE will approach 2500-3500 J/kg. The latitude of the warm front continues to be a point of uncertainty. Most forecast guidance depicts morning convection near and north of the warm front within a strong warm advection regime moving eastward across IA/northern IL/IN. It is uncertain if this will suppress the northward advancement of the warm front. The ultimate position of the warm front will have large impacts on where particularly concerning strong to intense tornado potential may eventually develop as storm motion would likely be along the boundary, rather than across the boundary, allowing for potentially fast-moving/long-track supercells interacting with the warm front and remaining within the favorable warm sector.
As the surface cold front develops east, additional convection will develop along the boundary by late afternoon/early evening from far southeast IA into northern MO and eastern KS. Initial supercells along this boundary will pose an all hazards risk – including very large hail, strong tornadoes and damaging gusts. With time, this convection may develop into a line propagating east/southeast. If a linear MCS develops, swaths of damaging wind gusts will be possible.
In general, given the strength of background flow fields, damaging wind potential could be significant regardless of storm mode. Furthermore, even storms developing north of the warm front could still produce severe gusts given large MUCAPE, fast storm motion and intense flow just above the surface. Favorable low-level shear will also support continued tornado potential even within a linear storm mode via embedded supercell structures and mesovortex generation. Large to very large hail potential is most likely early in storm development and where supercells are more likely to remain discrete (northern MO/far southeast IA/north-central IL).
Gulf Coast
Isolated strong gusts are possible in association with a tropical disturbance moving eastward along the Gulf Coast. See the tropical weather outlook from the National Hurricane Center for more information.
..Leitman.. 06/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Thursday, June 18
Outlook Summary
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible from Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic. Damaging wind gusts will be the main hazard with this activity.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 160726
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM KENTUCKY AND NORTHERN TENNESSEE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
### SUMMARY
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible from Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic. Damaging wind gusts will be the main hazard with this activity.
Synopsis
A series of embedded midlevel shortwave troughs will migrate through broad upper troughing and strong southwesterly deep-layer flow from the Great Lakes to the Northeast. At the surface, low pressure over southern Ontario will develop northeast along the St. Lawrence Valley and a trailing cold front will extend southwest from the Lower Great Lakes to northern OK and the TX Panhandle during the morning. This front will sag south/southeast through the period, becoming oriented from the Mid-Atlantic coast to central TX by Friday morning. A very moist airmass will reside south of the front, particularly from the southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic. Moderate to strong destabilization will develop across parts of the Plains into the Ohio Valley, with more modest instability with northeast extent into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
Ohio Valley to Mid-Atlantic and Northeast
Very strong west/southwesterly mid/upper flow is expected to reside across the Northeast on Thursday, decreasing with southwest extent into the Ohio Valley. Convection may be ongoing near the surface front and within the broad warm advection regime ahead of the boundary Thursday morning, especially across the Northeast. This will likely temper destabilization across portions of PA/NY and points northeastward. Nevertheless, intense deep-layer flow will still support strong to severe wind gusts with convection through early evening. Richer boundary layer moisture will be in place from TN/KY into the Mid-Atlantic, fostering strong destabilization. Clusters and line segments will pose a risk for mainly damaging gusts.
OK/TX to the Mid-South
A belt of strong instability is forecast ahead of the southward sagging cold front Thursday afternoon. This area will be further removed from stronger mid/upper southwesterly flow. But, ample instability, modest effective shear, and high PWs supporting water laden downdrafts will result in a marginal severe risk for damaging winds within thunderstorm clusters/bands.
Southeast
The remnants of a tropical disturbance is expected to migrate across portions of the Gulf Coast states on Thursday. A very moist and moderately unstable airmass will be in place. The remnant low may serve to locally enhance vertical shear, resulting in an accompanying risk for strong wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two.
..Leitman.. 06/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Friday, June 19
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, June 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, June 20 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Sunday, June 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, June 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, June 23 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160753 SPC AC 160753
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Fri - Carolinas
A very moist airmass will be in place across the Carolinas vicinity on Friday. Medium range guidance varies in the evolution of a surface front across the region. However, widespread convection is likely to be ongoing Friday morning somewhere across the Southeast. This will likely temper downstream destabilization and severe potential is uncertain.
Day 5/Sat - Central Plains
Upper ridging over the Plains will break down on Saturday as an upper shortwave impulse ejects from the central Rockies toward the Mid-MO Valley. At the same time, lee surface low development over the central High Plains will strengthen south/southeasterly low-level flow and rich Gulf moisture will quickly stream northward across portions of KS/NE. Moderate to strong destabilization amid strengthening west/northwesterly flow aloft will support severe thunderstorm development from late afternoon into the overnight hours.
Days 6-8/Sun-Tue
Spread among forecast guidance increases late in the forecast period. However, the general consensus is for weakening flow aloft and upper ridging building across the western U.S. Overall, predictability is low for early next week.
..Leitman.. 06/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, June 20
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, June 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, June 20 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Sunday, June 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, June 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, June 23 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160753 SPC AC 160753
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Fri - Carolinas
A very moist airmass will be in place across the Carolinas vicinity on Friday. Medium range guidance varies in the evolution of a surface front across the region. However, widespread convection is likely to be ongoing Friday morning somewhere across the Southeast. This will likely temper downstream destabilization and severe potential is uncertain.
Day 5/Sat - Central Plains
Upper ridging over the Plains will break down on Saturday as an upper shortwave impulse ejects from the central Rockies toward the Mid-MO Valley. At the same time, lee surface low development over the central High Plains will strengthen south/southeasterly low-level flow and rich Gulf moisture will quickly stream northward across portions of KS/NE. Moderate to strong destabilization amid strengthening west/northwesterly flow aloft will support severe thunderstorm development from late afternoon into the overnight hours.
Days 6-8/Sun-Tue
Spread among forecast guidance increases late in the forecast period. However, the general consensus is for weakening flow aloft and upper ridging building across the western U.S. Overall, predictability is low for early next week.
..Leitman.. 06/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, June 21
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, June 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, June 20 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Sunday, June 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, June 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, June 23 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160753 SPC AC 160753
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Fri - Carolinas
A very moist airmass will be in place across the Carolinas vicinity on Friday. Medium range guidance varies in the evolution of a surface front across the region. However, widespread convection is likely to be ongoing Friday morning somewhere across the Southeast. This will likely temper downstream destabilization and severe potential is uncertain.
Day 5/Sat - Central Plains
Upper ridging over the Plains will break down on Saturday as an upper shortwave impulse ejects from the central Rockies toward the Mid-MO Valley. At the same time, lee surface low development over the central High Plains will strengthen south/southeasterly low-level flow and rich Gulf moisture will quickly stream northward across portions of KS/NE. Moderate to strong destabilization amid strengthening west/northwesterly flow aloft will support severe thunderstorm development from late afternoon into the overnight hours.
Days 6-8/Sun-Tue
Spread among forecast guidance increases late in the forecast period. However, the general consensus is for weakening flow aloft and upper ridging building across the western U.S. Overall, predictability is low for early next week.
..Leitman.. 06/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, June 22
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, June 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, June 20 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Sunday, June 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, June 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, June 23 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160753 SPC AC 160753
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Fri - Carolinas
A very moist airmass will be in place across the Carolinas vicinity on Friday. Medium range guidance varies in the evolution of a surface front across the region. However, widespread convection is likely to be ongoing Friday morning somewhere across the Southeast. This will likely temper downstream destabilization and severe potential is uncertain.
Day 5/Sat - Central Plains
Upper ridging over the Plains will break down on Saturday as an upper shortwave impulse ejects from the central Rockies toward the Mid-MO Valley. At the same time, lee surface low development over the central High Plains will strengthen south/southeasterly low-level flow and rich Gulf moisture will quickly stream northward across portions of KS/NE. Moderate to strong destabilization amid strengthening west/northwesterly flow aloft will support severe thunderstorm development from late afternoon into the overnight hours.
Days 6-8/Sun-Tue
Spread among forecast guidance increases late in the forecast period. However, the general consensus is for weakening flow aloft and upper ridging building across the western U.S. Overall, predictability is low for early next week.
..Leitman.. 06/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, June 23
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, June 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, June 20 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Sunday, June 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, June 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, June 23 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160753 SPC AC 160753
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Fri - Carolinas
A very moist airmass will be in place across the Carolinas vicinity on Friday. Medium range guidance varies in the evolution of a surface front across the region. However, widespread convection is likely to be ongoing Friday morning somewhere across the Southeast. This will likely temper downstream destabilization and severe potential is uncertain.
Day 5/Sat - Central Plains
Upper ridging over the Plains will break down on Saturday as an upper shortwave impulse ejects from the central Rockies toward the Mid-MO Valley. At the same time, lee surface low development over the central High Plains will strengthen south/southeasterly low-level flow and rich Gulf moisture will quickly stream northward across portions of KS/NE. Moderate to strong destabilization amid strengthening west/northwesterly flow aloft will support severe thunderstorm development from late afternoon into the overnight hours.
Days 6-8/Sun-Tue
Spread among forecast guidance increases late in the forecast period. However, the general consensus is for weakening flow aloft and upper ridging building across the western U.S. Overall, predictability is low for early next week.
..Leitman.. 06/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, June 16
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Wednesday, June 17
- TORNADO: 15%
- HAIL: 30%
- WIND: 30%
- Thursday, June 18
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Friday, June 19
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, June 20
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Sunday, June 21
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, June 22
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, June 23
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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