Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, August 20
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe storms are possible this afternoon into this evening across parts of the Mid Atlantic, posing a risk for a couple of tornadoes and damaging wind gusts. Large hail and isolated wind damage will be possible late today into tonight with severe storms from Nebraska into northwest Wisconsin. Scattered damaging gusts are possible over parts of the Deep South this afternoon into the early evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 30%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 201633
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026
Valid 201630Z - 211200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC…PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST…AND FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe storms are possible this afternoon into this evening across parts of the Mid Atlantic, posing a risk for a couple of tornadoes and damaging wind gusts. Large hail and isolated wind damage will be possible late today into tonight with severe storms from Nebraska into northwest Wisconsin. Scattered damaging gusts are possible over parts of the Deep South this afternoon into the early evening.
Central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic
Radar mosaic late this morning showed a couple of weak convectively related vorticity maxima moving east across the central and southern Appalachians (i.e., southwest PA, eastern KY). One of these lead disturbances was sampled by the WSR-88D VAD at Jackson, KY, with an upstream shortwave trough over the OH Valley moving towards the Mid-Atlantic states.
The airmass across the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas will continue to heat amid patchy but thinning cloud cover. Model guidance shows moderate buoyancy developing by early to mid afternoon from the southern Appalachians northward into the northern Mid-Atlantic region. A belt of stronger 700-500 mb westerly flow (30-45 kt) will overspread the northern half of VA northward into PA/NJ. Beneath this stronger flow, southerly low-level flow veering and strengthening with height will support hodographs favorable for organized severe storms, including supercells and organized line segments. The latest model guidance shows a few simulated supercells developing in the area centered over MD and the upper Chesapeake Bay vicinity during the 20-00z timeframe. This scenario seems plausible given some low-level enlargement to the hodograph and effective shear around 40 kt. A tendency for upscale growth into a line segment is expected as this activity moves east towards the coast during the evening. A couple of supercell tornadoes are possible with this activity, in addition to a line-embedded mesovortex and scattered damaging gusts.
Carolinas into the TN Valley and lower MS Valley
Ample low-level moisture and strong heating will result in an unstable airmass from the Carolinas into much of the Southeast. Low-level convergence along a cold front that will extend from the western Carolinas into AR this afternoon will result in scattered thunderstorm coverage as 2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE develops by mid afternoon. High PW (in excess of 2 inches) and steep 0-3 km lapse rates and modest westerly to west-northwesterly flow will favor damaging downbursts with the stronger southeast-moving clusters.
Central Plains into the Upper MS Valley
A tongue of relatively rich low-level moisture (mainly 60s F surface dewpoints) will extend from the central Great Plains northward ahead of a cold front, which is forecast to be draped from western MN into western NE this afternoon. Thunderstorm initiation is anticipated first across the Upper MS Valley before expanding southwestward.
Moderate northwesterly flow aloft will support supercell wind profiles, with elongated/straight hodographs, and the threat for all severe hazards. Large to very large hail (i.e. greater than 2 inch diameter) will be the primary severe hazard, particularly during the early evening as the storms move into greater instability. Isolated strong to severe gusts (i.e. 55 to 75 mph) are possible as well. Given the supercellular storm mode and low-level southerly flow, a low-probability tornado risk also exists. Some risk for isolated damaging gusts may persist into the early overnight across southern NE and northern KS if clustering can occur.
AZ
Not much change from prior forecast thinking in that isolated to widely scattered storms are forecast but a generally lower risk for severe gusts is anticipated later today into this evening. Steep lapse rates and inverted-V profiles will support an isolated risk for severe gusts with the more intense downdrafts.
..Smith/Wendt.. 08/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Friday, August 21
Outlook Summary
Scattered damaging hail (some greater than 2 inch diameter) and severe wind gusts may occur over parts of the central Plains late Friday afternoon and evening. Scattered storms, some with severe wind gusts and hail, also are possible across parts of the Midwest and Southeast.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 201722
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Scattered damaging hail (some greater than 2 inch diameter) and severe wind gusts may occur over parts of the central Plains late Friday afternoon and evening. Scattered storms, some with severe wind gusts and hail, also are possible across parts of the Midwest and Southeast.
Central Plains
Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will overspread portions of the region on Friday. Meanwhile, a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will shift east across the central Plains toward the Mid-MO Valley. A corridor of rich boundary layer moisture will be in place within east/southeast low-level flow across portions of KS/NE ahead of a west-to-east oriented surface boundary. Moderate to strong instability is forecast by late afternoon into evening, supporting widely scattered thunderstorm development near the surface boundary. Vertically veering wind profiles with elongated/straight hodographs and 45+ kt effective shear magnitudes will support initial supercells. Large to very large hail (some greater than 2 inches diameter) will be possible. With time, a forward propagating cluster could develop and move southeast across parts of NE and KS. Some potential for severe gusts (a few near 70-80 mph) will be possible given large instability and steep low-level lapse rates.
It is uncertain how far south the severe risk will persist into the overnight hours. Forecast guidance, including CAMs, vary considerably, but some potential could spread into parts of northern OK late Friday/early Saturday. For now, have extended the Marginal risk southward across KS to account for conditional severe potential.
IA/WI/IL
Northwesterly flow aloft will modestly increase on Friday as an upper trough deepens over the Midwest. Cooling aloft will also result in areas of steepening midlevel lapse rates atop a seasonally moist airmass ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front. This will aid in a corridor of moderate to strong destabilization across portions of IA into northern IL and southern/eastern WI. Vertical wind profiles will support supercell thunderstorms capable of large hail and strong wind gusts. The southward extent of the risk into central IL is a bit uncertain, but some risk could persist into late evening.
Southeast/Carolinas
A very moist and strongly unstable airmass will be in place in the vicinity of a surface trough Friday afternoon. Strong heating and weak confluence will aid in thunderstorm development along the surface trough and higher terrain. Sufficient storm coverage could result in clustering/forward propagating as storms move eastward through the afternoon/early evening. Otherwise, weak vertical shear will limit overall organization, but sporadic severe/damaging gusts could occur from wet microbursts within the unstable/high PW airmass.
..Leitman.. 08/20/2026
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Saturday, August 22
Outlook Summary
Afternoon storms may produce marginal hail or wind gusts from the Upper Ohio Valley to the Lower Great Lakes, and over parts of the Northwest on Saturday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 200730
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES…AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST
### SUMMARY
Afternoon storms may produce marginal hail or wind gusts from the Upper Ohio Valley to the Lower Great Lakes, and over parts of the Northwest on Saturday.
Upper OH Valley to Lower Great Lakes
An upper trough will dig across the Great Lakes/OH Valley on Saturday with a 50 kt backside speed max in the midlevels from MN into IL. While winds aloft will be weaker farther east, cooling aloft will overspread the entire region. Meanwhile, a cold front will push across Lower MI, IN and OH during the day, with a plume of 1500 J/kg MLCAPE developing. This will support clusters of storms with strong to severe gust potential. The cool temperatures aloft and effective shear to 30 kt may also support marginal hail.
Parts of eastern WA…ID…western MT
A shortwave trough will move across the Northwest on Saturday, with a 50-60 kt midlevel speed max moving across the region along with cooling aloft. This trough will steepen midlevel lapse rates, resulting in an unstable air mass as daytime heating occurs. Storms are likely to form near the surface trough, and spread across northern ID and into western MT through the evening and overnight. The strengthening wind fields combined with favorable lapse rates will support cells with marginal hail, as well as corridors of strong wind gusts.
..Jewell.. 08/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Sunday, August 23
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, August 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, August 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, August 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, August 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, August 27 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200829 SPC AC 200829
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper trough will move slowly across the Northeast Sun/D4 into Mon/D5, with thunderstorms likely ahead of a cold front. This front will likely push offshore on Mon/D5 as a surface low ejects northward across Quebec. A moist air mass will remain ahead of the front across the Mid Atlantic and into New England, though ongoing rain and thunderstorms reduce predictability as far as how unstable it will become on Sun/D4. Also mitigating overall severe risk appears to be relatively modest low-level wind speeds, with 10-20 kt at 850 mb. These areas will be monitored for possible low severe probabilities in the coming days.
To the west, low severe probabilities are possible over parts of the northern High Plains, as a small but progressive shortwave trough moves out of the Northwest and across the northern Rockies atop the upper ridge. West to northwest winds across the northern High Plains combined with a lee trough and ribbon of 2000 J/kg MUCAPE should support at least isolated hail/wind activity, perhaps from eastern MT into the Dakotas.
Additional storm potential, generally low-end, will be possible Tue/D6 into Wed/D7 over much of the Midwest to Great Lakes, though predictability is quite low in forecasting the track of the northern wave, which may begin phasing with a developing upper low over Ontario.
..Jewell.. 08/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, August 24
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, August 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, August 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, August 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, August 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, August 27 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200829 SPC AC 200829
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper trough will move slowly across the Northeast Sun/D4 into Mon/D5, with thunderstorms likely ahead of a cold front. This front will likely push offshore on Mon/D5 as a surface low ejects northward across Quebec. A moist air mass will remain ahead of the front across the Mid Atlantic and into New England, though ongoing rain and thunderstorms reduce predictability as far as how unstable it will become on Sun/D4. Also mitigating overall severe risk appears to be relatively modest low-level wind speeds, with 10-20 kt at 850 mb. These areas will be monitored for possible low severe probabilities in the coming days.
To the west, low severe probabilities are possible over parts of the northern High Plains, as a small but progressive shortwave trough moves out of the Northwest and across the northern Rockies atop the upper ridge. West to northwest winds across the northern High Plains combined with a lee trough and ribbon of 2000 J/kg MUCAPE should support at least isolated hail/wind activity, perhaps from eastern MT into the Dakotas.
Additional storm potential, generally low-end, will be possible Tue/D6 into Wed/D7 over much of the Midwest to Great Lakes, though predictability is quite low in forecasting the track of the northern wave, which may begin phasing with a developing upper low over Ontario.
..Jewell.. 08/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, August 25
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, August 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, August 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, August 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, August 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, August 27 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200829 SPC AC 200829
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper trough will move slowly across the Northeast Sun/D4 into Mon/D5, with thunderstorms likely ahead of a cold front. This front will likely push offshore on Mon/D5 as a surface low ejects northward across Quebec. A moist air mass will remain ahead of the front across the Mid Atlantic and into New England, though ongoing rain and thunderstorms reduce predictability as far as how unstable it will become on Sun/D4. Also mitigating overall severe risk appears to be relatively modest low-level wind speeds, with 10-20 kt at 850 mb. These areas will be monitored for possible low severe probabilities in the coming days.
To the west, low severe probabilities are possible over parts of the northern High Plains, as a small but progressive shortwave trough moves out of the Northwest and across the northern Rockies atop the upper ridge. West to northwest winds across the northern High Plains combined with a lee trough and ribbon of 2000 J/kg MUCAPE should support at least isolated hail/wind activity, perhaps from eastern MT into the Dakotas.
Additional storm potential, generally low-end, will be possible Tue/D6 into Wed/D7 over much of the Midwest to Great Lakes, though predictability is quite low in forecasting the track of the northern wave, which may begin phasing with a developing upper low over Ontario.
..Jewell.. 08/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, August 26
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, August 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, August 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, August 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, August 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, August 27 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200829 SPC AC 200829
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper trough will move slowly across the Northeast Sun/D4 into Mon/D5, with thunderstorms likely ahead of a cold front. This front will likely push offshore on Mon/D5 as a surface low ejects northward across Quebec. A moist air mass will remain ahead of the front across the Mid Atlantic and into New England, though ongoing rain and thunderstorms reduce predictability as far as how unstable it will become on Sun/D4. Also mitigating overall severe risk appears to be relatively modest low-level wind speeds, with 10-20 kt at 850 mb. These areas will be monitored for possible low severe probabilities in the coming days.
To the west, low severe probabilities are possible over parts of the northern High Plains, as a small but progressive shortwave trough moves out of the Northwest and across the northern Rockies atop the upper ridge. West to northwest winds across the northern High Plains combined with a lee trough and ribbon of 2000 J/kg MUCAPE should support at least isolated hail/wind activity, perhaps from eastern MT into the Dakotas.
Additional storm potential, generally low-end, will be possible Tue/D6 into Wed/D7 over much of the Midwest to Great Lakes, though predictability is quite low in forecasting the track of the northern wave, which may begin phasing with a developing upper low over Ontario.
..Jewell.. 08/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, August 27
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, August 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, August 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, August 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, August 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, August 27 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200829 SPC AC 200829
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper trough will move slowly across the Northeast Sun/D4 into Mon/D5, with thunderstorms likely ahead of a cold front. This front will likely push offshore on Mon/D5 as a surface low ejects northward across Quebec. A moist air mass will remain ahead of the front across the Mid Atlantic and into New England, though ongoing rain and thunderstorms reduce predictability as far as how unstable it will become on Sun/D4. Also mitigating overall severe risk appears to be relatively modest low-level wind speeds, with 10-20 kt at 850 mb. These areas will be monitored for possible low severe probabilities in the coming days.
To the west, low severe probabilities are possible over parts of the northern High Plains, as a small but progressive shortwave trough moves out of the Northwest and across the northern Rockies atop the upper ridge. West to northwest winds across the northern High Plains combined with a lee trough and ribbon of 2000 J/kg MUCAPE should support at least isolated hail/wind activity, perhaps from eastern MT into the Dakotas.
Additional storm potential, generally low-end, will be possible Tue/D6 into Wed/D7 over much of the Midwest to Great Lakes, though predictability is quite low in forecasting the track of the northern wave, which may begin phasing with a developing upper low over Ontario.
..Jewell.. 08/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, August 20
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 30%
- Friday, August 21
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Saturday, August 22
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Sunday, August 23
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, August 24
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, August 25
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, August 26
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, August 27
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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