Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, January 28
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are not forecast for today.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 281236
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026
Valid 281300Z - 291200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not forecast for today.
Synopsis
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a pair of shortwave troughs within in the cyclonic flow covering the central and eastern CONUS. The southernmost shortwave is currently progressing southeastward into the Lower MS Valley, with this southeastward motion expected to persist throughout the day. This evolution takes the wave across the north-central and eastern Gulf this afternoon/evening, and across FL by early tomorrow morning. The northern shortwave is moving southeastward over the Upper Great Lakes, and continued southeastward progress will take this wave through the middle/upper OH Valley and off the northern Mid-Atlantic coast tonight. Dry and stable conditions associated with an arctic airmass will be in place ahead of these shortwaves, limiting low-level moisture and precluding thunderstorm development.
Another shortwave trough is currently moving eastward across the interior Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin. This eastward/southeastward progression should continue, taking the wave through the northern/central Rockies and into the central Plains while also dampening the shortwave ridging proceeding it. Precipitation will be possible in association with this shortwave during the day and across the central and northern Rockies. However, little to no instability is forecast, and thunderstorms appear unlikely.
..Mosier/Broyles.. 01/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Thursday, January 29
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are unlikely Thursday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 280655
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are unlikely Thursday.
Synopsis
Broad-scale troughing over the eastern US is forecast to continue Thursday as a shortwave perturbation moves out of the Rockies/southern Plains into the Southeast. This will allow a weak surface low to deepen over the lower MS Valley and Gulf Coast with a cold front moving through the southern Plains. A second stronger trough will move south out of Canada and deepen over the northern US as western ridging continues to build. This will intensify surface high pressure over the northern US as a reinforcing surge of Arctic air moves south. This will keep inland moisture return and thunderstorm chances minimal Thursday.
..Lyons.. 01/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Friday, January 30
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms appear unlikely Friday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 280830
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms appear unlikely Friday.
Synopsis
Mid-level flow over the US will continue to amplify as persistent eastern troughing is bolstered by the arrival of a northern stream shortwave from Canada and a deepening southern stream wave over the Gulf Coast. As these systems merge, a strong upper low is excepted to develop across the Southern US deepening a surface low over the eastern Gulf and western Atlantic into early Saturday. At the same time, strong ridging aloft will build over the West supporting increasingly strong northwesterly flow. This will allow a strong cold front and Arctic high pressure to move out of southern Canada reinforcing offshore flow over the lower 48. As such, inland moisture return and the potential for thunderstorms appears unlikely.
..Lyons.. 01/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Saturday, January 31
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, January 31 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, February 1 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, February 2 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, February 3 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, February 4 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280956 SPC AC 280956
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe weather is unlikely through the extended forecast period. A highly amplified mid-level flow pattern over the CONUS will continue through this weekend and into the first part of next week. A prominent upper low will amplify over the East Coast as a strong surface cyclone develops offshore. Ridging over the western US will support strong high pressure and a cold/dry continental air mass over much of the US. This will largely suppress inland moisture transport, outside of far south FL, and subsequent thunderstorm potential for the next several days.
..Lyons.. 01/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, February 1
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, January 31 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, February 1 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, February 2 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, February 3 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, February 4 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280956 SPC AC 280956
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe weather is unlikely through the extended forecast period. A highly amplified mid-level flow pattern over the CONUS will continue through this weekend and into the first part of next week. A prominent upper low will amplify over the East Coast as a strong surface cyclone develops offshore. Ridging over the western US will support strong high pressure and a cold/dry continental air mass over much of the US. This will largely suppress inland moisture transport, outside of far south FL, and subsequent thunderstorm potential for the next several days.
..Lyons.. 01/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, February 2
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, January 31 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, February 1 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, February 2 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, February 3 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, February 4 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280956 SPC AC 280956
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe weather is unlikely through the extended forecast period. A highly amplified mid-level flow pattern over the CONUS will continue through this weekend and into the first part of next week. A prominent upper low will amplify over the East Coast as a strong surface cyclone develops offshore. Ridging over the western US will support strong high pressure and a cold/dry continental air mass over much of the US. This will largely suppress inland moisture transport, outside of far south FL, and subsequent thunderstorm potential for the next several days.
..Lyons.. 01/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, February 3
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, January 31 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, February 1 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, February 2 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, February 3 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, February 4 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280956 SPC AC 280956
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe weather is unlikely through the extended forecast period. A highly amplified mid-level flow pattern over the CONUS will continue through this weekend and into the first part of next week. A prominent upper low will amplify over the East Coast as a strong surface cyclone develops offshore. Ridging over the western US will support strong high pressure and a cold/dry continental air mass over much of the US. This will largely suppress inland moisture transport, outside of far south FL, and subsequent thunderstorm potential for the next several days.
..Lyons.. 01/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, February 4
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, January 31 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, February 1 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, February 2 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, February 3 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, February 4 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280956 SPC AC 280956
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe weather is unlikely through the extended forecast period. A highly amplified mid-level flow pattern over the CONUS will continue through this weekend and into the first part of next week. A prominent upper low will amplify over the East Coast as a strong surface cyclone develops offshore. Ridging over the western US will support strong high pressure and a cold/dry continental air mass over much of the US. This will largely suppress inland moisture transport, outside of far south FL, and subsequent thunderstorm potential for the next several days.
..Lyons.. 01/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, January 28
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Thursday, January 29
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Friday, January 30
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Saturday, January 31
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, February 1
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, February 2
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, February 3
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, February 4
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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