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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Friday, May 15

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging winds and large to very large hail are likely late this afternoon and evening centered across much of Iowa. Isolated to scattered severe hail and damaging winds are possible over a broader area from parts of the southern High Plains to the Upper Midwest.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 151958

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Valid 152000Z - 161200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF IOWA

### THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging winds and large to very large hail are likely late this afternoon and evening centered across much of Iowa. Isolated to scattered severe hail and damaging winds are possible over a broader area from parts of the southern High Plains to the Upper Midwest.

20z Update Central Plains

Several areas of thunderstorm development are expected this afternoon and evening across the central Plains and Midwest. Moderate instability beneath 40+ kt of mid-level flow will promote a mixed mode of supercells and eventually linear clusters. Hail (some 2+ inches) along with damaging gusts appear likely with the more robust supercells initially along the cold front across NE/northern KS, and farther north along the warm front into southern MN. Eventual upscale growth into one or more linear clusters should favor an increase in the threat for damaging gust and a couple tornadoes over parts of IA, IL and southern WI this evening.

Eastern NM/CO and the TX/OK Panhandles

Initial high-based shower and thunderstorm development is underway coincident with very strong heating and the arrival of a weak upper-level shortwave trough atop the well-mixed air mass west of the dryline. With mixing depths of 4-5 km below modest buoyancy, strong to severe gusts are possible with these showers and thunderstorms across the southern High Plains. Wind probabilities were shifted slightly west. See MCDs #723 and #724 for short term information.

..Lyons.. 05/15/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026/

Central Plains into the Upper Midwest including Iowa

A cyclonically influenced moderately strong belt of westerlies will exist over the northern Plains to Upper Midwest and upper Great Lakes. The primary surface low will remain in northern Ontario, with a trailing cold front extending southward into the Upper Midwest and northern/central Plains. A secondary surface low will exist across southwest Kansas and northwest Oklahoma around peak afternoon heating, with a dryline extending south-southwestward from this low across much of the southern High Plains.

Continued expectations are for robust thunderstorm development along the cold front/surface trough from eastern Nebraska into Iowa to be delayed until late afternoon or early evening (around 22-00Z), as large-scale ascent will remain weak until a low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded within the westerly mid-level flow eventually overspreads the surface warm sector. Continued low-level warm/moist advection through the day and diurnal heating will contribute to the development of moderate to locally strong instability (2500+ J/kg MLCAPE) across this region by early evening. While low-level winds are forecast to remain fairly modest, enhanced mid/upper-level flow will support sufficient (35-50 kt) deep-layer shear for updraft organization.

Initial supercells should pose a threat for large to isolated very large hail (2+ inches in diameter), before likely quick upscale growth this evening across Iowa with an increasing potential for scattered severe/damaging winds. Some of these gusts could exceed 75 mph on a localized basis given the expectation for an organized cluster and ample instability. A tornado or two could also occur this evening as low-level shear gradually increases with a strengthening low-level jet.

Southern High Plains

While clouds linger at midday, particularly with southward extent across west/southwest Texas, robust daytime heating will yield a very well-mixed/deep boundary layer near/south of the secondary surface low over southwest Kansas/northwest Oklahoma. Mid-level temperatures will remain cool enough to support at least weak instability, even with modest low-level moisture/surface dewpoints. A weak mid-level shortwave trough moving from the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains will enhance large-scale ascent late in the day. This should support the development of high-based thunderstorms, with occasional strong to severe wind gusts expected. Latest short-term guidance suggests a more probable zone of thunderstorm-related gust potential may focus across the Texas South Plains and Low Rolling Plains. Isolated gusts of 70+ mph may occur given the very deeply mixed boundary layer extending up to around 500 mb. Cells that develop in west/southwest Texas may also contain some hail, with elongated hodographs in mid/upper levels.

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Outlook for Saturday, May 16

Outlook Summary

Severe storms capable of large to very large hail, wind damage and perhaps a couple of tornadoes will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains. Scattered thunderstorms will also pose potential for strong to severe winds across the lower to mid- Missouri Valley.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 151727

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS

### SUMMARY

Severe storms capable of large to very large hail, wind damage and perhaps a couple of tornadoes will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains. Scattered thunderstorms will also pose potential for strong to severe winds across the lower to mid- Missouri Valley.

Central Plains to the OH Valley

Amplification of the pattern will occur this weekend as a midlevel trough digs south-southeastward over the northern Rockies/Great Basin, with downstream lee cyclogenesis expected in the vicinity of southeast CO. Within the warm sector of the cyclone, an influx of mid-upper 60s boundary-layer dewpoints will persist from OK/KS into the lower MO Valley and the OH Valley. Remnants of D1 convection could be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of MO/IL, with the possibility of an MCV moving eastward during the day across the OH Valley. Isolated wind damage and large hail will be possible with loosely organized clusters during the day into the OH Valley. Isolated severe storms will also be possible during the afternoon along the outflow-reinforced front across northern MO.

The primary severe threat is expected to increase Saturday afternoon/evening, starting in northeast CO and spreading eastward into NE and adjacent areas of northwest KS. Upslope flow north of the lee cyclone and westward advection of low-level moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will result in moderate-large buoyancy near the warm front. Storm initiation is probable by mid-late afternoon in northeast CO, and storms will subsequently spread eastward toward southwest NE/northwest KS. Wind profiles with long hodographs will favor supercells capable of producing very large hail (up to 3 inches in diameter). Low-level shear and moisture will become sufficient for a few tornadoes as the storms move farther east toward the CO/KS/NE border region. Upscale growth into a cluster/MCS will also be possible Saturday evening, with an increase in the potential for severe outflow gusts of 65-80 mph.

Farther south, thunderstorm development along the dryline is more questionable given a warm elevated mixed layer and (at best) weak forcing for ascent. Still, hot temperatures/deep mixing could support isolated, high-based storms with the conditional threat for large hail and strong outflow gusts.

..Thompson.. 05/15/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Sunday, May 17

Outlook Summary

Severe storms are expected Sunday afternoon into Sunday night from portions of the central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Supercells with very large hail and tornadoes are possible, before upscale storm growth leads to an increase in the wind damage threat.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 151929

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA

### SUMMARY

Severe storms are expected Sunday afternoon into Sunday night from portions of the central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Supercells with very large hail and tornadoes are possible, before upscale storm growth leads to an increase in the wind damage threat.

Synopsis

The primary midlevel trough over the northern Great Basin Sunday morning will progress to the Four Corners by Monday morning. A subtle, lead shortwave trough (now over northern CA) will eject northeastward during the day from NM to western KS/central NE, and it will reach MN by early Monday. A weak reflection of the initial lee cyclone will likewise move north-northeastward across NE to MN, along a pre-existing baroclinic zone. The boundary layer will consist mostly of roughly mid 60s dewpoints east of the dryline and south of the warm front Sunday, while the fully modified (maritime tropical) air mass will return to TX through Sunday night.

NE to MN

The elevated remnants of overnight convection across NE/IA, and an associated MCV, should move northeastward toward the upper MS Valley and weaken. In the wake of the early convection, surface heating in cloud breaks will contribute to destabilization and storm development will become probable by Sunday afternoon/evening along the stalled front in NE, in advance of the weak surface cyclone and subtle/ejecting midlevel trough. Mesoscale details are fairly uncertain this far in advance. Still, the forecast environment appears favorable for initial supercells with very large hail and tornadoes, and some increase in the threat for damaging winds as convection grows upscale along the front and spreads northeastward into southeast SD, northwest IA and southwest MN through Sunday night.

Western KS to TX Panhandle dryline

A relatively warm elevated mixed layer and no obvious forcing for ascent both suggest that storm initiation will rely on sufficiently deep mixing along the dryline, and that storm formation is very much in question. If a storm or two forms late afternoon/evening before the dryline retreats overnight, there be a conditional threat for supercells with large hail.

..Thompson.. 05/15/2026

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Outlook for Monday, May 18

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Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150901 SPC AC 150901

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/MON

### DISCUSSION

Monday/Day 4

A severe weather outbreak will be possible from Monday afternoon into the evening and overnight period. On Monday, the western trough will take on a negative tilt before ejecting across the central Plains, with strong southwesterly flow aloft overspreading the region. This will result in strong lee cyclone development across western Kansas. A surface cold front will extend northward to a secondary surface low across the upper Midwest. A dryline will extend southward across portions of western Kansas into western Oklahoma. Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the cold front and further south along the dryline Monday afternoon and evening from Nebraska into central Kansas. Given the volatile air mass ahead of these features, with moderate to strong instability and strengthening deep layer shear, initial development will likely be supercellular. Initial supercells will pose risk of all hazards including large to very large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes. As the southwesterly low-level jet increases into the evening, large clockwise enhancement of low-level hodographs across portions of central Kansas into northern Oklahoma may lead to an increasing risk for strong to intense tornadoes. Additional thunderstorm development will spread in tandem with the cold front from the central Plains to the upper Midwest through the evening, with potential for more widespread damaging wind and a few tornadoes (some of which may be strong).

Tuesday/Day 5 to Thursday/Day 7

Severe potential is expected to continue D5/Tuesday as the cold front extends from the upper Midwest to southern Plains. Strong to moderate instability ahead of the front will continue to support severe storms from the northern part of the southern Plains northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Trends are for the front to shift eastward faster than originally expected, and as such probabilities were shifted eastward with this update. Strong to severe storms may extend further north into the northeast and Great Lakes Region.

On Wednesday and Thursday, the cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon and evening. However, uncertainty concerning the exact location of the front is substantial at this extended range.

..Thornton.. 05/15/2026

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Outlook for Tuesday, May 19

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ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150901 SPC AC 150901

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/MON

### DISCUSSION

Monday/Day 4

A severe weather outbreak will be possible from Monday afternoon into the evening and overnight period. On Monday, the western trough will take on a negative tilt before ejecting across the central Plains, with strong southwesterly flow aloft overspreading the region. This will result in strong lee cyclone development across western Kansas. A surface cold front will extend northward to a secondary surface low across the upper Midwest. A dryline will extend southward across portions of western Kansas into western Oklahoma. Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the cold front and further south along the dryline Monday afternoon and evening from Nebraska into central Kansas. Given the volatile air mass ahead of these features, with moderate to strong instability and strengthening deep layer shear, initial development will likely be supercellular. Initial supercells will pose risk of all hazards including large to very large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes. As the southwesterly low-level jet increases into the evening, large clockwise enhancement of low-level hodographs across portions of central Kansas into northern Oklahoma may lead to an increasing risk for strong to intense tornadoes. Additional thunderstorm development will spread in tandem with the cold front from the central Plains to the upper Midwest through the evening, with potential for more widespread damaging wind and a few tornadoes (some of which may be strong).

Tuesday/Day 5 to Thursday/Day 7

Severe potential is expected to continue D5/Tuesday as the cold front extends from the upper Midwest to southern Plains. Strong to moderate instability ahead of the front will continue to support severe storms from the northern part of the southern Plains northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Trends are for the front to shift eastward faster than originally expected, and as such probabilities were shifted eastward with this update. Strong to severe storms may extend further north into the northeast and Great Lakes Region.

On Wednesday and Thursday, the cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon and evening. However, uncertainty concerning the exact location of the front is substantial at this extended range.

..Thornton.. 05/15/2026

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Outlook for Wednesday, May 20

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ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150901 SPC AC 150901

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/MON

### DISCUSSION

Monday/Day 4

A severe weather outbreak will be possible from Monday afternoon into the evening and overnight period. On Monday, the western trough will take on a negative tilt before ejecting across the central Plains, with strong southwesterly flow aloft overspreading the region. This will result in strong lee cyclone development across western Kansas. A surface cold front will extend northward to a secondary surface low across the upper Midwest. A dryline will extend southward across portions of western Kansas into western Oklahoma. Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the cold front and further south along the dryline Monday afternoon and evening from Nebraska into central Kansas. Given the volatile air mass ahead of these features, with moderate to strong instability and strengthening deep layer shear, initial development will likely be supercellular. Initial supercells will pose risk of all hazards including large to very large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes. As the southwesterly low-level jet increases into the evening, large clockwise enhancement of low-level hodographs across portions of central Kansas into northern Oklahoma may lead to an increasing risk for strong to intense tornadoes. Additional thunderstorm development will spread in tandem with the cold front from the central Plains to the upper Midwest through the evening, with potential for more widespread damaging wind and a few tornadoes (some of which may be strong).

Tuesday/Day 5 to Thursday/Day 7

Severe potential is expected to continue D5/Tuesday as the cold front extends from the upper Midwest to southern Plains. Strong to moderate instability ahead of the front will continue to support severe storms from the northern part of the southern Plains northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Trends are for the front to shift eastward faster than originally expected, and as such probabilities were shifted eastward with this update. Strong to severe storms may extend further north into the northeast and Great Lakes Region.

On Wednesday and Thursday, the cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon and evening. However, uncertainty concerning the exact location of the front is substantial at this extended range.

..Thornton.. 05/15/2026

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Outlook for Thursday, May 21

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ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150901 SPC AC 150901

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/MON

### DISCUSSION

Monday/Day 4

A severe weather outbreak will be possible from Monday afternoon into the evening and overnight period. On Monday, the western trough will take on a negative tilt before ejecting across the central Plains, with strong southwesterly flow aloft overspreading the region. This will result in strong lee cyclone development across western Kansas. A surface cold front will extend northward to a secondary surface low across the upper Midwest. A dryline will extend southward across portions of western Kansas into western Oklahoma. Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the cold front and further south along the dryline Monday afternoon and evening from Nebraska into central Kansas. Given the volatile air mass ahead of these features, with moderate to strong instability and strengthening deep layer shear, initial development will likely be supercellular. Initial supercells will pose risk of all hazards including large to very large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes. As the southwesterly low-level jet increases into the evening, large clockwise enhancement of low-level hodographs across portions of central Kansas into northern Oklahoma may lead to an increasing risk for strong to intense tornadoes. Additional thunderstorm development will spread in tandem with the cold front from the central Plains to the upper Midwest through the evening, with potential for more widespread damaging wind and a few tornadoes (some of which may be strong).

Tuesday/Day 5 to Thursday/Day 7

Severe potential is expected to continue D5/Tuesday as the cold front extends from the upper Midwest to southern Plains. Strong to moderate instability ahead of the front will continue to support severe storms from the northern part of the southern Plains northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Trends are for the front to shift eastward faster than originally expected, and as such probabilities were shifted eastward with this update. Strong to severe storms may extend further north into the northeast and Great Lakes Region.

On Wednesday and Thursday, the cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon and evening. However, uncertainty concerning the exact location of the front is substantial at this extended range.

..Thornton.. 05/15/2026

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Outlook for Friday, May 22

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ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150901 SPC AC 150901

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/MON

### DISCUSSION

Monday/Day 4

A severe weather outbreak will be possible from Monday afternoon into the evening and overnight period. On Monday, the western trough will take on a negative tilt before ejecting across the central Plains, with strong southwesterly flow aloft overspreading the region. This will result in strong lee cyclone development across western Kansas. A surface cold front will extend northward to a secondary surface low across the upper Midwest. A dryline will extend southward across portions of western Kansas into western Oklahoma. Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the cold front and further south along the dryline Monday afternoon and evening from Nebraska into central Kansas. Given the volatile air mass ahead of these features, with moderate to strong instability and strengthening deep layer shear, initial development will likely be supercellular. Initial supercells will pose risk of all hazards including large to very large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes. As the southwesterly low-level jet increases into the evening, large clockwise enhancement of low-level hodographs across portions of central Kansas into northern Oklahoma may lead to an increasing risk for strong to intense tornadoes. Additional thunderstorm development will spread in tandem with the cold front from the central Plains to the upper Midwest through the evening, with potential for more widespread damaging wind and a few tornadoes (some of which may be strong).

Tuesday/Day 5 to Thursday/Day 7

Severe potential is expected to continue D5/Tuesday as the cold front extends from the upper Midwest to southern Plains. Strong to moderate instability ahead of the front will continue to support severe storms from the northern part of the southern Plains northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Trends are for the front to shift eastward faster than originally expected, and as such probabilities were shifted eastward with this update. Strong to severe storms may extend further north into the northeast and Great Lakes Region.

On Wednesday and Thursday, the cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon and evening. However, uncertainty concerning the exact location of the front is substantial at this extended range.

..Thornton.. 05/15/2026

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National Risk Overview

Friday, May 15

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 30%

WIND: 30%

Saturday, May 16

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 30%

WIND: 30%

Sunday, May 17

ANY SEVERE: 30%

Monday, May 18

ANY SEVERE: 30%

Tuesday, May 19

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Wednesday, May 20

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Thursday, May 21

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, May 22

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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