Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, August 14
Outlook Summary
Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible in parts of the central Plains and from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 141247
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026
Valid 141300Z - 151200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS
### SUMMARY
Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible in parts of the central Plains and from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic.
Mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys
An extensive band of showers and thunderstorms currently extends from northeast NE southeastward across central IA, central IL, and central IN. These showers and thunderstorms have been supported by warm-air advection across a relatively broad/diffuse frontal zone extending from southeast NE east-southeastward across northern MO and southern IL. Overall coverage and intensity of these showers and thunderstorms is forecast to gradually wane throughout the morning as the low-level jet responsible for the warm-air advection weakens.
Primary severe risk across this region today will be linked to the amount of air mass recovery and associated destabilization that occurs along the southern periphery of this band, ahead of a well-defined MCV generated by overnight convection across KS and NE. Ample low-level moisture is in place, and differential heating between the residual cloud debris from the early morning storms could result in a warm-front-like zone across southern IA or northern MO. Where this boundary sets up, its strength, and its location all still remain uncertain this morning, largely due to the limited predictability of how the ongoing precipitation evolves. The airmass along and south of this boundary is forecast to destabilize and become moderately to strongly unstable by the late afternoon. Additionally, low-level convergence along this boundary should be augmented by mesoscale ascent attendant to the MCV progressing through the region. The resulting combination of lift and buoyancy will support thunderstorm development. A belt of stronger mid-level flow could accompany the MCV, resulting in enough deep-layer shear to support organized storm structures with any persistent updrafts. Strong gusts associated with water-loaded downdrafts, as well as with any bowing segments, are the primary severe risk. Presence of the boundary coupled with southeasterly low-level flow will also support the potential for a brief tornado, particularly early in the convective cycle when a more cellular mode is likely.
Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic
Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing from IL into OH. These showers and thunderstorms will likely weaken this morning but associated cloud cover could reinforce a modest baroclinic zone that extends from southern IL across southern IN/southern OH and through central WV/central VA. A modest vorticity max over central IL is forecast to progress southeast within the west-northwesterly mid-level flow along and north of this boundary today. Ascent attendant to this vorticity maximum coupled with low-level convergence and afternoon airmass destabilization will support renewed thunderstorm development. Vertical shear will be weak, but strong updrafts and ample moisture could result in a threat for wet microbursts.
Central High Plains
A shortwave trough currently moving through the Lower CO River Valley is forecast to continue northeastward through the Four Corners. Ascent associated with this wave will combine with orographic lift in the foothills of the Rockies to support scattered convective initiation by early afternoon. Thunderstorms will then move northeastward into the moderately buoyant airmass over the central High Plains. Deep-layer shear will be modest but sufficient for a few organized updrafts capable of hail and damaging gusts.
Southern NV Vicinity
Dewpoints are in the 60s across southern CA, the Lower CO River Valley, and southern AZ. Strong heating will support afternoon airmass destabilization, combining with the moisture in place to support moderate buoyancy. Slightly stronger mid-level flow is anticipated over the southern NV vicinity, supporting the potential for isolated strong gusts.
..Mosier/Dean.. 08/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Saturday, August 15
Outlook Summary
Strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the central High Plains eastward into parts of the Midwest, Ohio Valley, southern/central Appalachians, and Carolinas.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 140551
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS…AND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS
### SUMMARY
Strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the central High Plains eastward into parts of the Midwest, Ohio Valley, southern/central Appalachians, and Carolinas.
Ohio Valley
An MCV is forecast to be located in the vicinity of eastern IA/northern IL Saturday morning. A surface boundary will be draped northwest to southeast across lower MI toward WV while the surface low/MCV shifts east across southern Lake MI toward the Lower Great Lakes through the evening. A very moist airmass will be in place, and at least a narrow corridor of strong instability may develop. Spread among forecast guidance remains fairly large regarding these surface features and corridors of greater destabilization. Nevertheless, stronger vertical shear in the vicinity of the surface low/MCV will support organized severe convection. Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two will be possible as convection develops near the MCV and southeastward along the surface boundary toward WV/eastern KY.
VA/Carolinas into the Southeast
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop over higher terrain within a very moist and moderately unstable airmass Saturday afternoon. Vertical shear will remain modest, especially with southward extent into GA/FL, but strong heating could support sporadic downbursts within the high-PW environment. If sufficient clustering occurs over higher terrain, a forward-propagating cluster could move across portions of the Carolinas, producing greater risk for damaging gusts.
Central High Plains to the MO Valley
Another MCV is forecast to be located over KS/NE, moving toward the Mid-MO Valley. Downstream destabilization is uncertain as this airmass will have been modified by the downstream MCV moving into the Midwest. Meanwhile, a moist airmass will be in place westward into the central High Plains. Upslope flow will support scattered thunderstorm development over higher terrain by early/mid afternoon. As convection spreads eastward into eastern CO and vicinity, steep lapse rates and modest but favorable shear profiles will support at least transient organized cells capable of producing large hail and damaging gusts. Additional convection may develop eastward across NE ahead of a surface cold front, mainly posing a risk for isolated damaging gusts.
..Leitman.. 08/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Sunday, August 16
Outlook Summary
Strong to severe storms are possible from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Mid-Atlantic, and across the High Plains Sunday afternoon and evening.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 140637
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC…AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Strong to severe storms are possible from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Mid-Atlantic, and across the High Plains Sunday afternoon and evening.
Mid-MS Valley to Mid-Atlantic
An upper trough will modestly deepen over the Great Lakes and Northeast on Sunday, resulting in weak mid/upper height falls. Moderate westerly flow aloft will overspread a seasonally moist airmass as a surface front sags southward across the Midwest and the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic regions through the period. At least a couple MCVs may be located within this broader region of enhanced westerly flow from the Mid-MS Valley to the Northeast. These features, along with the southward-moving surface front will be a focus for scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening. While details remain uncertain, the overall kinematic and thermodynamic parameter space will support strong to severe storms, mainly capable of damaging wind gusts.
..High Plains
Moist upslope flow will once again support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across the High Plains on Sunday. Upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints will result in moderate destabilization. Flow through around 500 mb will remain weak, but vertically veering wind profiles, and westerlies increasing with height above 500 mb will support effective shear magnitudes greater than 30 kt and elongated/straight hodographs are evident in forecast soundings. Isolated strong to severe storms mainly capable of producing large hail will be possible.
..Leitman.. 08/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Monday, August 17
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, August 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, August 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, August 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, August 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, August 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140754 SPC AC 140754
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Mon
A cold front is forecast to extend from the Lower OH/TN Valleys toward the southern Mid-Atlantic Monday morning. Some severe risk could develop ahead of the boundary as it impinges on a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. However, vertical shear is expected to remain modest (20-30 kt 0-6 km shear). Thunderstorm clusters could pose a risk for locally damaging wind gusts, especially if sufficient clustering occurs given moderate to strong downstream instability. Severe probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if a more organized severe risk appears more likely.
Days 5-8/Tue-Fri
Low-amplitude westerly flow aloft will strengthen some around Day 5 or 6/Tue or Wed as a series of upper shortwave troughs move across the northern Plains to the Great Lakes and Northeast through Day 7/Thu. This could result in increase severe potential across portions of the Plains, Midwest, and perhaps the Northeast as the upper troughs pivot eastward. Given a prior cold frontal passage and surface high pressure across the Midwest through at least parts of Tuesday, it is uncertain how low-level moisture/thermodynamic recovery will evolve ahead of the upper feature. Depending on trends, severe probabilities may become necessary in later outlooks.
..Leitman.. 08/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, August 18
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, August 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, August 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, August 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, August 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, August 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140754 SPC AC 140754
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Mon
A cold front is forecast to extend from the Lower OH/TN Valleys toward the southern Mid-Atlantic Monday morning. Some severe risk could develop ahead of the boundary as it impinges on a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. However, vertical shear is expected to remain modest (20-30 kt 0-6 km shear). Thunderstorm clusters could pose a risk for locally damaging wind gusts, especially if sufficient clustering occurs given moderate to strong downstream instability. Severe probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if a more organized severe risk appears more likely.
Days 5-8/Tue-Fri
Low-amplitude westerly flow aloft will strengthen some around Day 5 or 6/Tue or Wed as a series of upper shortwave troughs move across the northern Plains to the Great Lakes and Northeast through Day 7/Thu. This could result in increase severe potential across portions of the Plains, Midwest, and perhaps the Northeast as the upper troughs pivot eastward. Given a prior cold frontal passage and surface high pressure across the Midwest through at least parts of Tuesday, it is uncertain how low-level moisture/thermodynamic recovery will evolve ahead of the upper feature. Depending on trends, severe probabilities may become necessary in later outlooks.
..Leitman.. 08/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, August 19
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, August 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, August 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, August 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, August 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, August 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140754 SPC AC 140754
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Mon
A cold front is forecast to extend from the Lower OH/TN Valleys toward the southern Mid-Atlantic Monday morning. Some severe risk could develop ahead of the boundary as it impinges on a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. However, vertical shear is expected to remain modest (20-30 kt 0-6 km shear). Thunderstorm clusters could pose a risk for locally damaging wind gusts, especially if sufficient clustering occurs given moderate to strong downstream instability. Severe probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if a more organized severe risk appears more likely.
Days 5-8/Tue-Fri
Low-amplitude westerly flow aloft will strengthen some around Day 5 or 6/Tue or Wed as a series of upper shortwave troughs move across the northern Plains to the Great Lakes and Northeast through Day 7/Thu. This could result in increase severe potential across portions of the Plains, Midwest, and perhaps the Northeast as the upper troughs pivot eastward. Given a prior cold frontal passage and surface high pressure across the Midwest through at least parts of Tuesday, it is uncertain how low-level moisture/thermodynamic recovery will evolve ahead of the upper feature. Depending on trends, severe probabilities may become necessary in later outlooks.
..Leitman.. 08/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, August 20
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, August 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, August 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, August 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, August 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, August 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140754 SPC AC 140754
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Mon
A cold front is forecast to extend from the Lower OH/TN Valleys toward the southern Mid-Atlantic Monday morning. Some severe risk could develop ahead of the boundary as it impinges on a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. However, vertical shear is expected to remain modest (20-30 kt 0-6 km shear). Thunderstorm clusters could pose a risk for locally damaging wind gusts, especially if sufficient clustering occurs given moderate to strong downstream instability. Severe probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if a more organized severe risk appears more likely.
Days 5-8/Tue-Fri
Low-amplitude westerly flow aloft will strengthen some around Day 5 or 6/Tue or Wed as a series of upper shortwave troughs move across the northern Plains to the Great Lakes and Northeast through Day 7/Thu. This could result in increase severe potential across portions of the Plains, Midwest, and perhaps the Northeast as the upper troughs pivot eastward. Given a prior cold frontal passage and surface high pressure across the Midwest through at least parts of Tuesday, it is uncertain how low-level moisture/thermodynamic recovery will evolve ahead of the upper feature. Depending on trends, severe probabilities may become necessary in later outlooks.
..Leitman.. 08/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, August 21
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, August 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, August 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, August 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, August 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, August 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140754 SPC AC 140754
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Mon
A cold front is forecast to extend from the Lower OH/TN Valleys toward the southern Mid-Atlantic Monday morning. Some severe risk could develop ahead of the boundary as it impinges on a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. However, vertical shear is expected to remain modest (20-30 kt 0-6 km shear). Thunderstorm clusters could pose a risk for locally damaging wind gusts, especially if sufficient clustering occurs given moderate to strong downstream instability. Severe probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if a more organized severe risk appears more likely.
Days 5-8/Tue-Fri
Low-amplitude westerly flow aloft will strengthen some around Day 5 or 6/Tue or Wed as a series of upper shortwave troughs move across the northern Plains to the Great Lakes and Northeast through Day 7/Thu. This could result in increase severe potential across portions of the Plains, Midwest, and perhaps the Northeast as the upper troughs pivot eastward. Given a prior cold frontal passage and surface high pressure across the Midwest through at least parts of Tuesday, it is uncertain how low-level moisture/thermodynamic recovery will evolve ahead of the upper feature. Depending on trends, severe probabilities may become necessary in later outlooks.
..Leitman.. 08/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, August 14
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Saturday, August 15
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Sunday, August 16
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Monday, August 17
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, August 18
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, August 19
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, August 20
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, August 21
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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