Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, July 21
Outlook Summary
Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across a broad region from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. All severe hazards are possible, but swaths of damaging wind gusts should be the primary severe risk during the afternoon and early evening hours.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 45%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 210559
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
### SUMMARY
Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across a broad region from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. All severe hazards are possible, but swaths of damaging wind gusts should be the primary severe risk during the afternoon and early evening hours.
Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic
A broad area of 40-50-kt midlevel west-southwesterly flow will overspread the OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic as a large-scale trough shifts across the northeastern CONUS. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of an eastward-moving cold front across the OH Valley and along a pre-frontal trough over the Mid-Atlantic. In the base of the trough, a convectively augmented midlevel impulse moving from the lower OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic may also serve as a focus for convective development.
Diurnal heating within cloud breaks, combined with upper 60s to lower 70s dewpoints, will support moderate surface-based instability across the broad pre-frontal warm sector. The most favorable overlap of this instability and 40-50 kt of effective shear is expected from the lower OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic, where a mix of organized clusters and supercells should evolve and spread eastward through the day. Swaths of damaging wind gusts will be the primary severe hazard, though severe hail will also be possible with any sustained supercells. Additionally, a gradually strengthening and expanding 30-kt low-level jet will contribute to clockwise-curved low-level hodographs, and a few tornadoes may occur.
Mid-South into the Tennessee Valley
Greater instability is expected southwestward into portions of the Mid-South and TN Valley, although somewhat weaker deep-layer shear (around 30-40 kt of effective shear) may temper storm organization compared to ares farther northeast. Nevertheless, widely scattered thunderstorms capable of organizing into multicell clusters and occasional supercell structures will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and isolated severe hail ahead of the cold front during the afternoon and early evening hours.
Northeast
Increasing midlevel height falls/forcing for ascent preceding the upper trough will support scattered thunderstorm development near an effective warm front moving northward across portions of the Northeast. While poor midlevel lapse rates and weaker instability should limit the overall severe risk compared to areas farther south, around 40 kt of effective shear will still support organized storm structures. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary concern, though isolated severe hail and a tornado or two will also be possible.
..Weinman/Jirak.. 07/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Wednesday, July 22
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe thunderstorms will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts across parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic. Additional thunderstorms are expected northward across New England, some of which could produce locally strong wind gusts.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 210515
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe thunderstorms will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts across parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic. Additional thunderstorms are expected northward across New England, some of which could produce locally strong wind gusts.
Mid-Atlantic into New England
Several shortwave impulses are forecast to move through large-scale upper troughing across the Northeast on Wednesday. Relatively strong deep-layer winds for mid/late July are forecast, characterized by 500 mb southerly flow around 45-60 kt, 35-55 kt at 700 mb, and 25-35 kt at 850 mb. At the surface, low pressure will lift northeast across Quebec, with a surface trough extending southward into the Mid-Atlantic. A cold front is forecast to be located from eastern NY to the central Appalachians and the TN Valley Wednesday morning. The northern extent of the front will be rather progressive as it moves across New England and the northern Mid-Atlantic through the afternoon and evening. The southern extent of the front will more slowly sag south/southeast across VA/NC. Ahead of the front, southerly low-level flow will maintain a seasonally moist airmass beneath the moderately strong deep-layer wind fields.
While the boundary layer will be moist, strong heating will be limited due to cloud cover and poor lapse rates. This will limit instability, especially with northward extent into New England. Nevertheless, sufficient instability coupled with the stronger deep-layer flow will support organized clusters capable of wind damage. The greatest risk will be focused across the southern Mid-Atlantic where instability will be greatest (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE).
..Leitman.. 07/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Thursday, July 23
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Thursday. However, locally gusty winds could occur with thunderstorms across the central High Plains into the northern Rockies.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 210626
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Thursday. However, locally gusty winds could occur with thunderstorms across the central High Plains into the northern Rockies.
Central High Plains
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop over higher terrain in the central Rockies during the afternoon. Easterly low-level flow across the adjacent High Plains will transport modest boundary layer moisture westward across western KS and eastern CO. Meanwhile, a weak surface boundary may develop south across the central High Plains as convection moves off higher terrain into the High Plains. Forecast soundings indicate generally weak midlevel lapse rates, but steep low-level lapse rates within modest instability (MLCAPE up to 1000 J/kg). This could support gusty outflow winds with storms across the Plains. However, effective shear values in the 20-25 kt range and very weak flow below 500 mb suggests organized severe convection is unlikely amid the weakly unstable airmass.
Northern Rockies
Some enhancement to upper flow is forecast as a shortwave upper trough moves across Alberta and Saskatchewan, and an upper low persists off the Pacific Northwest coast. Forecast soundings show a deeply-mixed boundary layer with steep 0-3 km lapse rates. Steep midlevel lapse rates will be sufficient for weak destabilization, and isolated thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon/evening. Given weak vertical shear and limited instability, organized severe potential is low, though gusty outflow winds could occur.
..Leitman.. 07/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Friday, July 24
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, July 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, July 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, July 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, July 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, July 28 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210718 SPC AC 210718
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
Great Lakes/Midwest
An amplified upper ridge will persist across the Plains and Rockies through early next week. Periods of strengthening northwesterly mid/upper flow are expected on the eastern periphery of the upper ridge as a series of upper shortwave troughs move across the Canadian Prairies and glance the Great Lakes vicinity, mainly Day 5-7/Sat-Mon. This could support areas of severe thunderstorm potential across parts of the Upper Midwest to the Ohio Valley vicinity during this time as stronger northwesterly flow overspreads a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. However, both traditional physics-based NWP and ML/AI NWP are inconsistent and/or show relatively low/broad probability areas – increasing uncertainty in timing and spatial delineation of severe potential. Given the proximity to the upper ridge, capping may be a concern. Trends will be monitored and severe probabilities may become necessary is confidence increases in subsequent outlooks.
..Leitman.. 07/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, July 25
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, July 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, July 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, July 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, July 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, July 28 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210718 SPC AC 210718
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
Great Lakes/Midwest
An amplified upper ridge will persist across the Plains and Rockies through early next week. Periods of strengthening northwesterly mid/upper flow are expected on the eastern periphery of the upper ridge as a series of upper shortwave troughs move across the Canadian Prairies and glance the Great Lakes vicinity, mainly Day 5-7/Sat-Mon. This could support areas of severe thunderstorm potential across parts of the Upper Midwest to the Ohio Valley vicinity during this time as stronger northwesterly flow overspreads a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. However, both traditional physics-based NWP and ML/AI NWP are inconsistent and/or show relatively low/broad probability areas – increasing uncertainty in timing and spatial delineation of severe potential. Given the proximity to the upper ridge, capping may be a concern. Trends will be monitored and severe probabilities may become necessary is confidence increases in subsequent outlooks.
..Leitman.. 07/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, July 26
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, July 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, July 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, July 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, July 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, July 28 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210718 SPC AC 210718
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
Great Lakes/Midwest
An amplified upper ridge will persist across the Plains and Rockies through early next week. Periods of strengthening northwesterly mid/upper flow are expected on the eastern periphery of the upper ridge as a series of upper shortwave troughs move across the Canadian Prairies and glance the Great Lakes vicinity, mainly Day 5-7/Sat-Mon. This could support areas of severe thunderstorm potential across parts of the Upper Midwest to the Ohio Valley vicinity during this time as stronger northwesterly flow overspreads a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. However, both traditional physics-based NWP and ML/AI NWP are inconsistent and/or show relatively low/broad probability areas – increasing uncertainty in timing and spatial delineation of severe potential. Given the proximity to the upper ridge, capping may be a concern. Trends will be monitored and severe probabilities may become necessary is confidence increases in subsequent outlooks.
..Leitman.. 07/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, July 27
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, July 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, July 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, July 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, July 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, July 28 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210718 SPC AC 210718
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
Great Lakes/Midwest
An amplified upper ridge will persist across the Plains and Rockies through early next week. Periods of strengthening northwesterly mid/upper flow are expected on the eastern periphery of the upper ridge as a series of upper shortwave troughs move across the Canadian Prairies and glance the Great Lakes vicinity, mainly Day 5-7/Sat-Mon. This could support areas of severe thunderstorm potential across parts of the Upper Midwest to the Ohio Valley vicinity during this time as stronger northwesterly flow overspreads a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. However, both traditional physics-based NWP and ML/AI NWP are inconsistent and/or show relatively low/broad probability areas – increasing uncertainty in timing and spatial delineation of severe potential. Given the proximity to the upper ridge, capping may be a concern. Trends will be monitored and severe probabilities may become necessary is confidence increases in subsequent outlooks.
..Leitman.. 07/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, July 28
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, July 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, July 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, July 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, July 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, July 28 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210718 SPC AC 210718
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
Great Lakes/Midwest
An amplified upper ridge will persist across the Plains and Rockies through early next week. Periods of strengthening northwesterly mid/upper flow are expected on the eastern periphery of the upper ridge as a series of upper shortwave troughs move across the Canadian Prairies and glance the Great Lakes vicinity, mainly Day 5-7/Sat-Mon. This could support areas of severe thunderstorm potential across parts of the Upper Midwest to the Ohio Valley vicinity during this time as stronger northwesterly flow overspreads a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. However, both traditional physics-based NWP and ML/AI NWP are inconsistent and/or show relatively low/broad probability areas – increasing uncertainty in timing and spatial delineation of severe potential. Given the proximity to the upper ridge, capping may be a concern. Trends will be monitored and severe probabilities may become necessary is confidence increases in subsequent outlooks.
..Leitman.. 07/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, July 21
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 45%
- Wednesday, July 22
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 15%
- Thursday, July 23
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Friday, July 24
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, July 25
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, July 26
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, July 27
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, July 28
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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