Hayley here
- Do you like
lofi music
whatever music Hayley put on
and terrifyingly loud computer voices? Then stop by the 24/7 ish severe weather live stream!
* stats delayed and were probably not accurate to begin with
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce marginally severe hail and damaging winds this afternoon and evening across parts of the southern Appalachians/Southeast.
← back to overviewSPC AC 211230
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026
Valid 211300Z - 221200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/SOUTHEAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce marginally severe hail and damaging winds this afternoon and evening across parts of the southern Appalachians/Southeast.
Southern Appalachians/Southeast
With upper ridging persisting over the Southwest and northern Mexico today, a subtle mid-level shortwave trough will move southeastward from the mid MS Valley/Mid-South this morning towards the southern Appalachians vicinity by this evening. At the surface, a weak front draped generally east-west across the OH Valley should lift northward as a warm front through the afternoon, with modest low-level moisture advancing northward across parts of the lower MS Valley, TN Valley, and Southeast.
Large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave trough should remain rather weak, but daytime heating and orographic circulations over the southern Appalachians may aid isolated thunderstorm development by mid to late afternoon (around 20-22Z). Most guidance, with the exception of the NAM, suggests that boundary-layer moisture will remain quite limited this afternoon, with surface dewpoints generally in the 40s to low 50s. Even so, weak instability/steepened low-level lapse rates may support occasional strong to damaging downdraft winds with any thunderstorms that can develop from eastern TN into parts of the Carolinas. Around 25-30 kt of effective bulk shear may also aid modest updraft organization and marginally severe hail with the strongest cores. The isolated severe threat should wane through the evening with the loss of daytime heating.
..Gleason/Kerr.. 03/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Severe thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected on Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of the Ohio Valley.
← back to overviewSPC AC 210601
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected on Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of the Ohio Valley.
Ohio Valley/Mid Mississippi Valley
At mid-levels on Sunday, an amplifying trough will move quickly east-southeastward across the north-central U.S, as an associated jet streak translates eastward into the southern Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward into the Ohio Valley. South of the front, moderate instability will develop across a moist airmass by early afternoon, with surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F. Warming surface temperatures and increasing low-level convergence will result in convective initiation along parts of the front during the mid to late afternoon. Storm coverage is forecast to gradually increase as several clusters or line segments with a severe threat move southeastward across the Ohio Valley during the late afternoon and early evening.
During the afternoon from Cincinnati to Pittsburgh, forecast soundings gradually increase MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range. Forecasts just ahead of the front suggest that winds will be veered to the southwest near the surface, but that strong speed shear will exist in the lower to mid-levels. 0-6 km shear is forecast to range from 40 to 50 knots, which should be favorable for severe thunderstorm development. 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7.0 to 7.5 C/km range should support supercells with large hail. The supercell threat is expected to be greatest early in the event, when cells are more likely to be discrete. A threat for severe wind gusts is also expected. The wind-damage threat should be concentrated along short line segments that form in the late afternoon and early evening. A marginal tornado threat will also be possible.
Further west-southwest into the lower Ohio Valley and mid Mississippi Valley, the models are forecasting a stout capping inversion to the south of the front over much of the warm sector. Near the front in the early evening, the cap is forecast to weaken. This combined with increasing low-level convergence near the front should be enough for isolated convective initiation. A marginal threat for hail and severe wind gusts would be possible with the stronger cells that can initiate and persist.
..Broyles.. 03/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
An isolated severe threat is expected on Monday across parts of the Carolinas and Georgia.
← back to overviewSPC AC 210711
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA
### SUMMARY
An isolated severe threat is expected on Monday across parts of the Carolinas and Georgia.
Carolinas/Georgia
An upper-level trough will move eastward to near the Eastern Seaboard on Monday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move through the Carolinas, and should be positioned from central Georgia into central South Carolina by Monday afternoon. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s F will contribute to weak destabilization. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop near the front and move east-southeastward toward the Atlantic coast during the mid to late afternoon. 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range, along with steep low-level lapse rates may be enough for a marginal wind-damage threat.
..Broyles.. 03/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
| Day 4 | Tuesday, March 24 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, March 25 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, March 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, March 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, March 28 | predictability too low |
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210829 SPC AC 210829
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6
An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the western Atlantic from Tuesday into Wednesday, as a surface high moves eastward across the eastern U.S. A dry airmass is forecast across most of the U.S., which should be unfavorable for thunderstorms in most areas.
On Thursday, a low is forecast to develop in the northern U.S., as low-level moisture returns quickly northward into the parts of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms will be possible across this unstable airmass, mainly Thursday night, along the southern edge of a passing mid-level jet streak. The greatest potential for severe thunderstorms is expected from the mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley along and near a cold front. At this time, the amount of spread concerning potential outcomes is substantial. An area may need to be added once model solutions begin to agree more, and confidence increases concerning where the greatest severe threat will be.
Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8
On Friday, the front is forecast to move southward across the Tennessee Valley, where isolated to scattered strong thunderstorms will be possible during the day. The front is forecast to move southward to near the Gulf Coast by Saturday. Isolated storms would again be possible near the front. Although the current thinking is that any severe threat will be marginal on Friday and Saturday, uncertainty is substantial due to the extended range in the forecast period.
..Broyles.. 03/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
| Day 4 | Tuesday, March 24 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, March 25 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, March 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, March 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, March 28 | predictability too low |
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210829 SPC AC 210829
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6
An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the western Atlantic from Tuesday into Wednesday, as a surface high moves eastward across the eastern U.S. A dry airmass is forecast across most of the U.S., which should be unfavorable for thunderstorms in most areas.
On Thursday, a low is forecast to develop in the northern U.S., as low-level moisture returns quickly northward into the parts of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms will be possible across this unstable airmass, mainly Thursday night, along the southern edge of a passing mid-level jet streak. The greatest potential for severe thunderstorms is expected from the mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley along and near a cold front. At this time, the amount of spread concerning potential outcomes is substantial. An area may need to be added once model solutions begin to agree more, and confidence increases concerning where the greatest severe threat will be.
Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8
On Friday, the front is forecast to move southward across the Tennessee Valley, where isolated to scattered strong thunderstorms will be possible during the day. The front is forecast to move southward to near the Gulf Coast by Saturday. Isolated storms would again be possible near the front. Although the current thinking is that any severe threat will be marginal on Friday and Saturday, uncertainty is substantial due to the extended range in the forecast period.
..Broyles.. 03/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
| Day 4 | Tuesday, March 24 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, March 25 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, March 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, March 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, March 28 | predictability too low |
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210829 SPC AC 210829
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6
An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the western Atlantic from Tuesday into Wednesday, as a surface high moves eastward across the eastern U.S. A dry airmass is forecast across most of the U.S., which should be unfavorable for thunderstorms in most areas.
On Thursday, a low is forecast to develop in the northern U.S., as low-level moisture returns quickly northward into the parts of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms will be possible across this unstable airmass, mainly Thursday night, along the southern edge of a passing mid-level jet streak. The greatest potential for severe thunderstorms is expected from the mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley along and near a cold front. At this time, the amount of spread concerning potential outcomes is substantial. An area may need to be added once model solutions begin to agree more, and confidence increases concerning where the greatest severe threat will be.
Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8
On Friday, the front is forecast to move southward across the Tennessee Valley, where isolated to scattered strong thunderstorms will be possible during the day. The front is forecast to move southward to near the Gulf Coast by Saturday. Isolated storms would again be possible near the front. Although the current thinking is that any severe threat will be marginal on Friday and Saturday, uncertainty is substantial due to the extended range in the forecast period.
..Broyles.. 03/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
| Day 4 | Tuesday, March 24 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, March 25 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, March 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, March 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, March 28 | predictability too low |
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210829 SPC AC 210829
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6
An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the western Atlantic from Tuesday into Wednesday, as a surface high moves eastward across the eastern U.S. A dry airmass is forecast across most of the U.S., which should be unfavorable for thunderstorms in most areas.
On Thursday, a low is forecast to develop in the northern U.S., as low-level moisture returns quickly northward into the parts of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms will be possible across this unstable airmass, mainly Thursday night, along the southern edge of a passing mid-level jet streak. The greatest potential for severe thunderstorms is expected from the mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley along and near a cold front. At this time, the amount of spread concerning potential outcomes is substantial. An area may need to be added once model solutions begin to agree more, and confidence increases concerning where the greatest severe threat will be.
Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8
On Friday, the front is forecast to move southward across the Tennessee Valley, where isolated to scattered strong thunderstorms will be possible during the day. The front is forecast to move southward to near the Gulf Coast by Saturday. Isolated storms would again be possible near the front. Although the current thinking is that any severe threat will be marginal on Friday and Saturday, uncertainty is substantial due to the extended range in the forecast period.
..Broyles.. 03/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
| Day 4 | Tuesday, March 24 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, March 25 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, March 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, March 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, March 28 | predictability too low |
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210829 SPC AC 210829
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6
An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the western Atlantic from Tuesday into Wednesday, as a surface high moves eastward across the eastern U.S. A dry airmass is forecast across most of the U.S., which should be unfavorable for thunderstorms in most areas.
On Thursday, a low is forecast to develop in the northern U.S., as low-level moisture returns quickly northward into the parts of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms will be possible across this unstable airmass, mainly Thursday night, along the southern edge of a passing mid-level jet streak. The greatest potential for severe thunderstorms is expected from the mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley along and near a cold front. At this time, the amount of spread concerning potential outcomes is substantial. An area may need to be added once model solutions begin to agree more, and confidence increases concerning where the greatest severe threat will be.
Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8
On Friday, the front is forecast to move southward across the Tennessee Valley, where isolated to scattered strong thunderstorms will be possible during the day. The front is forecast to move southward to near the Gulf Coast by Saturday. Isolated storms would again be possible near the front. Although the current thinking is that any severe threat will be marginal on Friday and Saturday, uncertainty is substantial due to the extended range in the forecast period.
..Broyles.. 03/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.
Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.
SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.