Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, September 9
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central Plains to the Ohio Valley today. A more organized severe weather threat is expected from eastern Ohio to western New York.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 091241
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 AM CDT Wed Sep 09 2026
Valid 091300Z - 101200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OHIO FROM WESTERN NEW YORK
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central Plains to the Ohio Valley today. A more organized severe weather threat is expected from eastern Ohio to western New York.
Synopsis
Early-morning satellite imagery show broad upper troughing from the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia through the Upper Great Lakes and Ontario. Several shortwave troughs are embedded within this larger upper troughing, including one moving into northern MN and another farther north across far northwestern Ontario. A belt of moderate to strong mid-level westerly/southwesterly flow extends between the base of these two waves. Expectation is the southern wave to move quickly eastward through the Upper Great Lakes and Ontario, accompanied by mid-level jet max.
Surface analysis places a occluded low over far northwestern Ontario, with a cold front extending southward into western Upper MI and then back southwestward through central NE. An outflow-augmented pre-frontal trough precedes this front, extending from a low in southwest Lower MI to another low over northeast KS to another over far southwest KS/far southeast CO. Both the cold front and pre-frontal trough are expected to progress modestly southward/southeastward today. Two corridors of relatively higher thunderstorm coverage are anticipated this afternoon/evening, one from eastern OH into western PA/western NY and the other farther southwest from the Lower MO Valley into the TX/OK Panhandles.
Central Ohio into western New York… Moist low-levels are already in place from the OH Valley into western PA and NY, with recent surface analysis sampling upper 60s dewpoints in central OH decreasing to the low/mid 60s across western PA and western NY. This moist airmass is expected to destabilize amid modest low-level moisture advection and filtered insolation, ahead of a convectively augmented vorticity maximum. With the cold front still well to the northwest, this vorticity maximum will be the primary impetus for thunderstorm development, augmenting the weak low-level confluence along the weak pre-frontal trough. A predominately linear/clustered storm mode is anticipated, but strengthening mid-level flow will support effective bulk shear from 30 to 40 kt, which could support some more persist/organized line segments. Damaging gusts are the primary risk with any of these more organized segments. Low-level hodographs do show some notable curative, particularly from western PA into western NY after 00Z, amid a strengthening low-level jet. As such, there is a low-probability tornado risk is these areas.
Lower OH and MO Valleys into the TX/OK Panhandles
Thunderstorm coverage is gradually expected to increase across the region this afternoon and evening, beginning near a surface low move across the Lower MO Valley before expanding back southwestward along the southward-progressing front. The stronger vertical shear will be displace north of the front, and a largely disorganized, outflow-dominant storm mode is anticipated. Slightly better flow aloft may favor a more focused cluster across the Mid-Mississippi Valley into western Kentucky/Tennessee. Steep low-level lapse rates and high cloud bases could support strong gusts from the Lower MO Valley into the TX/OK Panhandles.
Southern AZ
Afternoon thunderstorms are expected over the higher terrain near the southern AZ/NM border. There is some potential this activity progresses westward into the lower elevations of southern AZ. However, upper ridging will be centered over this region and vertical shear will be weak, resulting in slow storm motion and disorganized, outflow-dominant structures. A few strong gusts could result from any more persistent updrafts.
..Mosier/Lyons.. 09/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Thursday, September 10
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday afternoon across the southern High Plains and portions of the Ozarks into the Mid-South.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 090517
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 AM CDT Wed Sep 09 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS…AND PARTS OF THE OZARKS TO THE MID-SOUTH
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday afternoon across the southern High Plains and portions of the Ozarks into the Mid-South.
Southern High Plains to the Mid-South
An upper shortwave trough will move from the central Plains into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Thursday. At the surface, a front is forecast to extend across the Ohio Valley into the southern High Plains during the morning. The western extent of the boundary over the southern High plains will sag southward through the period into northern/central TX, while the eastern extent of the boundary stalls over the Mid-South into the Mid-Atlantic. A moist airmass will be in place near and south of the surface boundary. Pockets of weak to moderate instability are expected near the surface boundary, but will largely be modulated by areas of ongoing precipitation at the beginning of the period, as well as weak midlevel lapse rates.
Low-level flow is expected to remain weak, while strong flow aloft will be offset from stronger instability ahead of the surface front. This will limit more focused/robust severe potential. However, a few strong storms could occur across the southern High Plains within the post-frontal upslope flow regime where vertically veering wind profiles could support around 25-30 kt effective shear magnitudes. Marginal hail and gusty winds could occur within this regime.
Within the very moist and moderately unstable airmass further east across portions of the Ozarks and Mid-South, sufficient clustering could occur to promote sporadic strong wind gusts via storm/outflow interactions, or from wet microbursts within the high-PW and steeper low-level lapse rate environment.
..Leitman.. 09/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Friday, September 11
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest late Friday afternoon into Friday night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 090659
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Wed Sep 09 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
CORRECTED FOR GENERAL THUNDERSTORM LINES
SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest late Friday afternoon into Friday night.
Upper Midwest into Nebraska
An upper shortwave trough will move across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday. This will result in enhanced westerly flow and cooling aloft across the region, mainly after 00z. A surface cold front is forecast to develop southeast across the Dakotas through the afternoon, and continue east/southeast across the Upper Midwest and portions of the central Plains through the nighttime hours. Southerly low-level flow will transport 60s dewpoints northward across the MO Valley into MN ahead of the front. Northward advection of low-level moisture beneath cooling aloft/steepening midlevel lapse rates will lead to at least a narrow corridor of moderate destabilization during the late afternoon into evening from central/eastern NE into MN. Stronger large-scale ascent and vertical shear will be focused across MN. With southward extent, instability may be greater, but shear and large-scale ascent will be weaker. Additionally, warmer midlevel temperatures may persist further south, resulting in capping and a more conditional severe risk. Large hail and damaging gusts appear to be the predominant hazard with storms from late Friday afternoon into the nighttime hours.
..Leitman.. 09/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Saturday, September 12
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, September 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, September 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, September 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, September 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, September 16 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090727 SPC AC 090727
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Wed Sep 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Sat - Central Plains
A cold front will stall across the central Plains on Saturday. Low-level east/southeasterly flow will maintain rich boundary layer moisture across KS and into eastern CO. Early day convection may be ongoing in the vicinity of the stalled boundary within the low-level warm advection regime. It is uncertain if airmass recovery and renewed thunderstorm development will occur within the unstable warm sector given nebulous large-scale ascent and modest vertical shear. While low severe potential may eventually evolve, probability appears less than 15 percent at this time.
Days 5-6/Sun-Mon – Central Plains to the Great Lakes
An upper trough is forecast to move from the northern Rockies to the Great Lakes through early Day 7/Tuesday. This will bring enhanced southwesterly flow to portions of the northern/central Plains into the Great Lakes, particularly on Monday. With the approach of the trough, lee low development is forecast across the northern/central High Plains on Sunday. Increasing southerly low-level flow will transport moisture northward to NE/SD ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front. This could support some severe risk across parts of the northern/central Plains and Mid-MO Valley vicinity on Sunday. However, large spread exists among forecast guidance with regards to the surface low placement, northward extent of moisture return, and frontal position. As a result, corridors of greater severe potential are uncertain on Sunday.
As the upper trough continues to lift east/northeast through the Great Lakes on Monday, severe potential could develop eastward into parts of the Mid/Upper MS Valley and upper Great Lakes vicinity. Stronger deep-layer flow may become displaced to the north of better instability, and similarly large model spread continues into this time frame. Depending on trends, severe probabilities could eventually be needed for Sunday and/or Monday.
Days 7-8/Tue-Wed
Lower amplitude, quasi-zonal flow is expected to develop by the end of the forecast period as the early-week uppers shortwave trough lifts into eastern Canada and the sub-tropical high begins to rebuild over the southern U.S. This should largely limit severe potential, though abundant moisture will reside from the southern Plains into the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic and daily sporadic strong storms could still occur.
..Leitman.. 09/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, September 13
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, September 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, September 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, September 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, September 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, September 16 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090727 SPC AC 090727
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Wed Sep 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Sat - Central Plains
A cold front will stall across the central Plains on Saturday. Low-level east/southeasterly flow will maintain rich boundary layer moisture across KS and into eastern CO. Early day convection may be ongoing in the vicinity of the stalled boundary within the low-level warm advection regime. It is uncertain if airmass recovery and renewed thunderstorm development will occur within the unstable warm sector given nebulous large-scale ascent and modest vertical shear. While low severe potential may eventually evolve, probability appears less than 15 percent at this time.
Days 5-6/Sun-Mon – Central Plains to the Great Lakes
An upper trough is forecast to move from the northern Rockies to the Great Lakes through early Day 7/Tuesday. This will bring enhanced southwesterly flow to portions of the northern/central Plains into the Great Lakes, particularly on Monday. With the approach of the trough, lee low development is forecast across the northern/central High Plains on Sunday. Increasing southerly low-level flow will transport moisture northward to NE/SD ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front. This could support some severe risk across parts of the northern/central Plains and Mid-MO Valley vicinity on Sunday. However, large spread exists among forecast guidance with regards to the surface low placement, northward extent of moisture return, and frontal position. As a result, corridors of greater severe potential are uncertain on Sunday.
As the upper trough continues to lift east/northeast through the Great Lakes on Monday, severe potential could develop eastward into parts of the Mid/Upper MS Valley and upper Great Lakes vicinity. Stronger deep-layer flow may become displaced to the north of better instability, and similarly large model spread continues into this time frame. Depending on trends, severe probabilities could eventually be needed for Sunday and/or Monday.
Days 7-8/Tue-Wed
Lower amplitude, quasi-zonal flow is expected to develop by the end of the forecast period as the early-week uppers shortwave trough lifts into eastern Canada and the sub-tropical high begins to rebuild over the southern U.S. This should largely limit severe potential, though abundant moisture will reside from the southern Plains into the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic and daily sporadic strong storms could still occur.
..Leitman.. 09/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, September 14
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, September 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, September 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, September 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, September 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, September 16 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090727 SPC AC 090727
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Wed Sep 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Sat - Central Plains
A cold front will stall across the central Plains on Saturday. Low-level east/southeasterly flow will maintain rich boundary layer moisture across KS and into eastern CO. Early day convection may be ongoing in the vicinity of the stalled boundary within the low-level warm advection regime. It is uncertain if airmass recovery and renewed thunderstorm development will occur within the unstable warm sector given nebulous large-scale ascent and modest vertical shear. While low severe potential may eventually evolve, probability appears less than 15 percent at this time.
Days 5-6/Sun-Mon – Central Plains to the Great Lakes
An upper trough is forecast to move from the northern Rockies to the Great Lakes through early Day 7/Tuesday. This will bring enhanced southwesterly flow to portions of the northern/central Plains into the Great Lakes, particularly on Monday. With the approach of the trough, lee low development is forecast across the northern/central High Plains on Sunday. Increasing southerly low-level flow will transport moisture northward to NE/SD ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front. This could support some severe risk across parts of the northern/central Plains and Mid-MO Valley vicinity on Sunday. However, large spread exists among forecast guidance with regards to the surface low placement, northward extent of moisture return, and frontal position. As a result, corridors of greater severe potential are uncertain on Sunday.
As the upper trough continues to lift east/northeast through the Great Lakes on Monday, severe potential could develop eastward into parts of the Mid/Upper MS Valley and upper Great Lakes vicinity. Stronger deep-layer flow may become displaced to the north of better instability, and similarly large model spread continues into this time frame. Depending on trends, severe probabilities could eventually be needed for Sunday and/or Monday.
Days 7-8/Tue-Wed
Lower amplitude, quasi-zonal flow is expected to develop by the end of the forecast period as the early-week uppers shortwave trough lifts into eastern Canada and the sub-tropical high begins to rebuild over the southern U.S. This should largely limit severe potential, though abundant moisture will reside from the southern Plains into the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic and daily sporadic strong storms could still occur.
..Leitman.. 09/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, September 15
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, September 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, September 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, September 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, September 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, September 16 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090727 SPC AC 090727
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Wed Sep 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Sat - Central Plains
A cold front will stall across the central Plains on Saturday. Low-level east/southeasterly flow will maintain rich boundary layer moisture across KS and into eastern CO. Early day convection may be ongoing in the vicinity of the stalled boundary within the low-level warm advection regime. It is uncertain if airmass recovery and renewed thunderstorm development will occur within the unstable warm sector given nebulous large-scale ascent and modest vertical shear. While low severe potential may eventually evolve, probability appears less than 15 percent at this time.
Days 5-6/Sun-Mon – Central Plains to the Great Lakes
An upper trough is forecast to move from the northern Rockies to the Great Lakes through early Day 7/Tuesday. This will bring enhanced southwesterly flow to portions of the northern/central Plains into the Great Lakes, particularly on Monday. With the approach of the trough, lee low development is forecast across the northern/central High Plains on Sunday. Increasing southerly low-level flow will transport moisture northward to NE/SD ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front. This could support some severe risk across parts of the northern/central Plains and Mid-MO Valley vicinity on Sunday. However, large spread exists among forecast guidance with regards to the surface low placement, northward extent of moisture return, and frontal position. As a result, corridors of greater severe potential are uncertain on Sunday.
As the upper trough continues to lift east/northeast through the Great Lakes on Monday, severe potential could develop eastward into parts of the Mid/Upper MS Valley and upper Great Lakes vicinity. Stronger deep-layer flow may become displaced to the north of better instability, and similarly large model spread continues into this time frame. Depending on trends, severe probabilities could eventually be needed for Sunday and/or Monday.
Days 7-8/Tue-Wed
Lower amplitude, quasi-zonal flow is expected to develop by the end of the forecast period as the early-week uppers shortwave trough lifts into eastern Canada and the sub-tropical high begins to rebuild over the southern U.S. This should largely limit severe potential, though abundant moisture will reside from the southern Plains into the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic and daily sporadic strong storms could still occur.
..Leitman.. 09/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, September 16
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, September 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, September 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, September 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, September 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, September 16 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090727 SPC AC 090727
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Wed Sep 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Sat - Central Plains
A cold front will stall across the central Plains on Saturday. Low-level east/southeasterly flow will maintain rich boundary layer moisture across KS and into eastern CO. Early day convection may be ongoing in the vicinity of the stalled boundary within the low-level warm advection regime. It is uncertain if airmass recovery and renewed thunderstorm development will occur within the unstable warm sector given nebulous large-scale ascent and modest vertical shear. While low severe potential may eventually evolve, probability appears less than 15 percent at this time.
Days 5-6/Sun-Mon – Central Plains to the Great Lakes
An upper trough is forecast to move from the northern Rockies to the Great Lakes through early Day 7/Tuesday. This will bring enhanced southwesterly flow to portions of the northern/central Plains into the Great Lakes, particularly on Monday. With the approach of the trough, lee low development is forecast across the northern/central High Plains on Sunday. Increasing southerly low-level flow will transport moisture northward to NE/SD ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front. This could support some severe risk across parts of the northern/central Plains and Mid-MO Valley vicinity on Sunday. However, large spread exists among forecast guidance with regards to the surface low placement, northward extent of moisture return, and frontal position. As a result, corridors of greater severe potential are uncertain on Sunday.
As the upper trough continues to lift east/northeast through the Great Lakes on Monday, severe potential could develop eastward into parts of the Mid/Upper MS Valley and upper Great Lakes vicinity. Stronger deep-layer flow may become displaced to the north of better instability, and similarly large model spread continues into this time frame. Depending on trends, severe probabilities could eventually be needed for Sunday and/or Monday.
Days 7-8/Tue-Wed
Lower amplitude, quasi-zonal flow is expected to develop by the end of the forecast period as the early-week uppers shortwave trough lifts into eastern Canada and the sub-tropical high begins to rebuild over the southern U.S. This should largely limit severe potential, though abundant moisture will reside from the southern Plains into the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic and daily sporadic strong storms could still occur.
..Leitman.. 09/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, September 9
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 15%
- Thursday, September 10
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Friday, September 11
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Saturday, September 12
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, September 13
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, September 14
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, September 15
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, September 16
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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