Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Friday, March 20

Saturday, March 21

Sunday, March 22

Monday, March 23

Tuesday, March 24

Wednesday, March 25

Thursday, March 26

Friday, March 27

Outlook for Friday, March 20

Outlook Summary

Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Upper Ohio Valley and central Appalachians, mainly late this afternoon into the evening.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 5%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 201615

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Valid 201630Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS

### SUMMARY

Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Upper Ohio Valley and central Appalachians, mainly late this afternoon into the evening.

Upper Ohio Valley into the Central Appalachians

Midday water-vapor imagery indicates a mid-level shortwave trough over Lower Michigan as a belt of strong west-northwesterly flow is maintained across the north-central U.S. eastward to the Mid-Atlantic and New England coastal vicinity. This disturbance is forecast to quickly move to the Delmarva/NJ by midnight.

The northern extent of a moisture plume, and an airmass still undergoing modification over the Gulf Basin, will protrude northeast into the upper OH Valley by late afternoon. Forecast guidance shows surface dewpoints perhaps reaching near 50 deg F near the OH-WV-PA border region towards 00z. Cold 500-mb temperatures and diurnal heating will act to partially compensate for modest moisture and contribute to weak buoyancy. Isolated to widely scattered low-topped thunderstorms will probably develop along a southeastward-moving cold front during the evening. Elongated hodographs support updraft organization but the overall limited moisture will act to constrain otherwise greater storm coverage. Marginally severe hail and perhaps a couple of damaging gusts are the primary hazards with the stronger storms.

..Smith/Mosier.. 03/20/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

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Outlook for Saturday, March 21

Outlook Summary

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce hail to near 1 inch diameter Saturday afternoon and evening from eastern Tennessee into portions of North and South Carolina.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 201638

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA

### SUMMARY

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce hail to near 1 inch diameter Saturday afternoon and evening from eastern Tennessee into portions of North and South Carolina.

Tennessee into the Carolinas

A modest midlevel shortwave trough will migrate southeast from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Southeast within a broader northwesterly upper flow regime on Saturday. Midlevel flow is not forecast to be overly strong with this shortwave, with around 25-35 kt noted in forecast guidance. However, vertically veering wind profiles within the lowest 2-3 km, and stronger northwesterly flow above 500 mb will support effective shear magnitudes of around 25 kt. Forecast soundings also show elongated/straight hodographs. Boundary layer moisture is forecast to remain modest, with surface dewpoints generally in the 50s, with some areas across the TN Valley seeing low 60s dewpoints. However, relatively steep midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km and cool temperatures aloft (near -15 C at 500 mb) will support 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE.

Given modestly favorable vertical shear and instability, combined with weak large-scale ascent overspreading the region by peak heating, a low risk for severe storms producing hail to around 1 inch diameter appears possible, and a level 1 of 5 (Marginal) risk has been included with the Day 2 update.

..Leitman.. 03/20/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Sunday, March 22

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of the Ohio Valley.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 200720

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of the Ohio Valley.

Ohio Valley/Mid Mississippi Valley

A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday. Ahead of the trough, a cold front will advance southward into the Ohio Valley. As surface temperatures warm during the day, moderate instability is forecast to develop across much of the Ohio Valley. Increasing low-level convergence along the front during the afternoon will help thunderstorms to initiate, with storms increasing in coverage in the late afternoon and early evening. A large area of storms is expected to form along a corridor from southern Illinois east-northeastward into west-central Pennsylvania. Some of these storms will likely have a severe threat.

Late afternoon forecast soundings in the Ohio Valley near Cincinnati, Ohio have MLCAPE increasing to near 1800 J/kg with 0-6 km shear in the 45 to 50 knot range. In addition, 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be in the 7 to 7.5 C/km range. This environment should support supercells with large hail. The greatest hail threat may occur somewhat early in the event, when cells are more likely be discrete. A wind-damage threat is also expected, and could increase as storms congeal into a line during the early evening. A more isolated severe threat could develop further to the southwest into the mid Mississippi Valley during the late afternoon and early evening.

..Broyles.. 03/20/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Monday, March 23

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, March 23	predictability too low
Day 5	Tuesday, March 24	potential too low
Day 6	Wednesday, March 25	potential too low
Day 7	Thursday, March 26	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, March 27	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200842 SPC AC 200842

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

DISCUSSION

Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6

An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the eastern U.S. on Monday, as a cold front advances southward into the Carolinas. Thunderstorm development will be possible in parts of the Carolinas Monday afternoon. Instability is forecast to be weak, but a marginal severe threat could develop in areas that heat up the most.

On Tuesday and Wednesday, northwest mid-level flow is forecast over much of the eastern two-thirds of nation. This pattern will keep a warm and dry airmass in place over the continental U.S., making thunderstorms unlikely in most areas.

Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8

Mid-level flow is forecast to become more westerly across the central and eastern U.S. on Thursday. In response, low-level moisture return is forecast from the Ark-La-Tex into the mid Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible from Thursday afternoon into the overnight period across the lower to mid Missouri Valley into the Ohio Valley, as a mid-level jet streak passes through the north-central U.S. On Friday, a continued chance for thunderstorm development will be possible from the mid Mississippi Valley into the southern Appalachians. Although a severe threat may develop on either Thursday or Friday, low predictability exists concerning any specific scenario.

..Broyles.. 03/20/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, March 24

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, March 23	predictability too low
Day 5	Tuesday, March 24	potential too low
Day 6	Wednesday, March 25	potential too low
Day 7	Thursday, March 26	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, March 27	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200842 SPC AC 200842

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

DISCUSSION

Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6

An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the eastern U.S. on Monday, as a cold front advances southward into the Carolinas. Thunderstorm development will be possible in parts of the Carolinas Monday afternoon. Instability is forecast to be weak, but a marginal severe threat could develop in areas that heat up the most.

On Tuesday and Wednesday, northwest mid-level flow is forecast over much of the eastern two-thirds of nation. This pattern will keep a warm and dry airmass in place over the continental U.S., making thunderstorms unlikely in most areas.

Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8

Mid-level flow is forecast to become more westerly across the central and eastern U.S. on Thursday. In response, low-level moisture return is forecast from the Ark-La-Tex into the mid Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible from Thursday afternoon into the overnight period across the lower to mid Missouri Valley into the Ohio Valley, as a mid-level jet streak passes through the north-central U.S. On Friday, a continued chance for thunderstorm development will be possible from the mid Mississippi Valley into the southern Appalachians. Although a severe threat may develop on either Thursday or Friday, low predictability exists concerning any specific scenario.

..Broyles.. 03/20/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Wednesday, March 25

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, March 23	predictability too low
Day 5	Tuesday, March 24	potential too low
Day 6	Wednesday, March 25	potential too low
Day 7	Thursday, March 26	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, March 27	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200842 SPC AC 200842

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

DISCUSSION

Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6

An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the eastern U.S. on Monday, as a cold front advances southward into the Carolinas. Thunderstorm development will be possible in parts of the Carolinas Monday afternoon. Instability is forecast to be weak, but a marginal severe threat could develop in areas that heat up the most.

On Tuesday and Wednesday, northwest mid-level flow is forecast over much of the eastern two-thirds of nation. This pattern will keep a warm and dry airmass in place over the continental U.S., making thunderstorms unlikely in most areas.

Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8

Mid-level flow is forecast to become more westerly across the central and eastern U.S. on Thursday. In response, low-level moisture return is forecast from the Ark-La-Tex into the mid Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible from Thursday afternoon into the overnight period across the lower to mid Missouri Valley into the Ohio Valley, as a mid-level jet streak passes through the north-central U.S. On Friday, a continued chance for thunderstorm development will be possible from the mid Mississippi Valley into the southern Appalachians. Although a severe threat may develop on either Thursday or Friday, low predictability exists concerning any specific scenario.

..Broyles.. 03/20/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Thursday, March 26

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, March 23	predictability too low
Day 5	Tuesday, March 24	potential too low
Day 6	Wednesday, March 25	potential too low
Day 7	Thursday, March 26	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, March 27	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200842 SPC AC 200842

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

DISCUSSION

Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6

An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the eastern U.S. on Monday, as a cold front advances southward into the Carolinas. Thunderstorm development will be possible in parts of the Carolinas Monday afternoon. Instability is forecast to be weak, but a marginal severe threat could develop in areas that heat up the most.

On Tuesday and Wednesday, northwest mid-level flow is forecast over much of the eastern two-thirds of nation. This pattern will keep a warm and dry airmass in place over the continental U.S., making thunderstorms unlikely in most areas.

Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8

Mid-level flow is forecast to become more westerly across the central and eastern U.S. on Thursday. In response, low-level moisture return is forecast from the Ark-La-Tex into the mid Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible from Thursday afternoon into the overnight period across the lower to mid Missouri Valley into the Ohio Valley, as a mid-level jet streak passes through the north-central U.S. On Friday, a continued chance for thunderstorm development will be possible from the mid Mississippi Valley into the southern Appalachians. Although a severe threat may develop on either Thursday or Friday, low predictability exists concerning any specific scenario.

..Broyles.. 03/20/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Friday, March 27

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, March 23	predictability too low
Day 5	Tuesday, March 24	potential too low
Day 6	Wednesday, March 25	potential too low
Day 7	Thursday, March 26	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, March 27	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200842 SPC AC 200842

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

DISCUSSION

Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6

An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the eastern U.S. on Monday, as a cold front advances southward into the Carolinas. Thunderstorm development will be possible in parts of the Carolinas Monday afternoon. Instability is forecast to be weak, but a marginal severe threat could develop in areas that heat up the most.

On Tuesday and Wednesday, northwest mid-level flow is forecast over much of the eastern two-thirds of nation. This pattern will keep a warm and dry airmass in place over the continental U.S., making thunderstorms unlikely in most areas.

Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8

Mid-level flow is forecast to become more westerly across the central and eastern U.S. on Thursday. In response, low-level moisture return is forecast from the Ark-La-Tex into the mid Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible from Thursday afternoon into the overnight period across the lower to mid Missouri Valley into the Ohio Valley, as a mid-level jet streak passes through the north-central U.S. On Friday, a continued chance for thunderstorm development will be possible from the mid Mississippi Valley into the southern Appalachians. Although a severe threat may develop on either Thursday or Friday, low predictability exists concerning any specific scenario.

..Broyles.. 03/20/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

National Risk Overview

Friday, March 20: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Saturday, March 21: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: low
Sunday, March 22: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Monday, March 23: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, March 24: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, March 25: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, March 26: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, March 27: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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