Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, June 22
Outlook Summary
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue this evening across parts of the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley, some of which could produce large hail, damaging wind gusts and tornadoes. Storms associated with marginally severe gusts and hail will also be likely across parts of the southern and central Plains.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 230036
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025
Valid 230100Z - 231200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue this evening across parts of the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley, some of which could produce large hail, damaging wind gusts and tornadoes. Storms associated with marginally severe gusts and hail will also be likely across parts of the southern and central Plains.
Central and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley
A mid-level trough is evident on water vapor imagery over the northern Rockies, with southwest flow located over the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a 997 mb low is located in far southeast North Dakota with a cold front extending southwestward from the low into eastern South Dakota and central Nebraska. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are in the 70s F across the upper Mississippi Valley, with mostly 60s F located over parts of the mid Missouri Valley and central Plains. The RAP has moderate to strong instability analyzed ahead the front, with the highest instability in north-central Minnesota where MLCAPE is estimated to be near 4000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the front in north-central Nebraska, and in the post-frontal airmass in western Nebraska. This activity is being supported by subtle shortwave trough moving through the central High Plains. As low-level flow ramps up this evening, storm coverage is expected to gradually increase, with the storms moving northeastward into southern and eastern South Dakota later this evening. Additional storms appear likely to develop over parts of Minnesota.
Near the front from eastern South Dakota into northwest Minnesota, RAP forecast soundings suggest that 0-6 km shear will be mostly between 30 and 40 knots this evening. In addition, 700-500 mb lapse rates will be near 8 C/km. This environment should support supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible, mainly over west-central and northern Minnesota where the strongest instability is analyzed. Some short-term models also show potential for short intense line segments. If a line can become organized and remain persistent, the potential for severe gusts would be pronounced, with wind gusts above 70 mph possible. A tornado threat will also be likely with supercells, and bowing line segments.
Southern and Central High Plains
Southwest mid-level flow is evident on water vapor imagery over the southern and central High Plains. At the surface, a 998 mb low is located in far southwest Nebraska with a moist airmass located to the south and southeast of the low across much of the central and southern High Plains. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing from eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. The storms are being supported by a subtle shortwave trough evident on water vapor imagery. The storms will continue to move eastward into the stronger instability this evening. The Amarillo 00Z sounding has very steep low to mid-level lapse rates, with surface dewpoints in the 60s and about 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. This should support a threat for isolated severe gusts this evening. Hail will also be possible with the stronger cores. The severe threat could expand north-northeastward into western Kansas as low-level flow increases this evening.
..Broyles.. 06/23/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Monday, June 23
Outlook Summary
Strong to potentially severe storms are possible Monday from parts of the Great Lakes into the central Plains.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 221715
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
### SUMMARY
Strong to potentially severe storms are possible Monday from parts of the Great Lakes into the central Plains.
Synopsis
A prominent upper high will be centered over the Appalachians, providing hot conditions over much of the eastern CONUS. Early in the day, a shortwave trough will exit the far northern Plains, ejecting across Ontario. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough will move from parts of CA into the Great Basin, within a broader upper trough.
At the surface, High pressure will exist over much of the East beneath the upper ridge, though weak troughing will occur during the day over the Mid Atlantic. Another area of high pressure behind the northern Plains wave will push east into the upper MS Valley, with a cold front roughly from central WI into western KS by 00Z. A very moist air mass will exist east of this cold front, and, over much of the East. Strong to severe storms are most likely along the Plains front, although scattered storms will also be likely over the TN Valley and Mid South, though with less severe potential. Finally, isolated storms may occur over parts of the Appalachians beneath the upper High.
Central Plains into the upper Great Lakes
Strong heating will occur ahead of the cold front, where dewpoints will range from the upper 60s F to lower 70s F. This region will also be within a plume of midlevel moisture spreading northward west of the upper ridge. As such, the high PW air mass along with surface convergence near the front should easily support afternoon storms, most likely from WI southwestward to perhaps the OK/TX Panhandles by 00Z.
Deep-layer shear and mean winds in general will not be very strong along the frontal zone, but perhaps a bit stronger over northern areas as the upper wave glances the area. The end result should be an elongated area of afternoon storms. Some of these storms may briefly contain marginal hail due to moderate instability and modest midlevel lapse rates, but storms will likely merge quickly over most of the area with strong to locally damaging gusts.
..Jewell.. 06/22/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Tuesday, June 24
Outlook Summary
Severe storms are possible Tuesday from eastern Wyoming into southwest South Dakota, the Nebraska Panhandle, and northeast Colorado. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from parts of the central Plains and Midwest into the Northeast.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 221921
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN WYOMING AND VICINITY
### SUMMARY
Severe storms are possible Tuesday from eastern Wyoming into southwest South Dakota, the Nebraska Panhandle, and northeast Colorado. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from parts of the central Plains and Midwest into the Northeast.
Synopsis
The upper ridge over the East will flatten on Tuesday as a strong upper trough moves across Ontario and Quebec, with the strongest height falls occurring overnight. To the west, shortwave ridging will occur over the northern Plains during the day, as a weakening and low-amplitude wave moves from UT into WY through 00Z. This system will continue into the northern Plains overnight, providing cooling aloft.
At the surface, high pressure will extend from the upper Great Lakes into the Southeast, with southerly winds persisting over the Plains. A boundary from Lower MI into NE will surge north as a warm front late in the day and overnight, with backed/easterly winds along this front allowing for near 60 F dewpoints as far west as eastern WY.
Late in the day, a cold front associated with the Quebec upper trough will push south across NY, PA, and New England, providing a focus for storms as the antecedent air mass will be unstable.
Northern to central High Plains
Morning thunderstorms may be ongoing from parts of NE and KS northeastward into Lower MI, but probably not severe at that time. As heating occurs, re-development is possible, both along the developing warm front or with any MCVs or residual outflow boundaries. The weak shear environment coupled with moderate instability will primarily yield sporadic clusters of strong to locally damaging wind gusts.
Farther west into eastern WY and northeast CO, supercell potential will exist late in the day and during the evening, as moist easterly flow eventually becomes uncapped generally east of a Casper to Cheyenne to Denver line. Aided by steep lapse rates/heating over the higher terrain, and the approaching upper trough, widely scattered cells are anticipated, with large hail the most likely threat. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out. While capping will be an issue after dark, the lifting warm front may support additional storms into western SD/NE.
Northeast Late Afternoon/Evening
Forecast soundings across the area depict relatively warm profiles aloft, though still unstable with 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE. Given this, widely scattered thunderstorms are expected from Lake Huron eastward into parts of New England late in the day. As these storms should be timed near peak heating, localized strong downbursts will be possible.
..Jewell.. 06/22/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Wednesday, June 25
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, June 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, June 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, June 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, June 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, June 29 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220832 SPC AC 220832
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Wednesday
Extended-range guidance generally indicates that the persistent upper ridge across the eastern CONUS will begin to dampen on Wednesday. Multiple low-amplitude midlevel shortwave troughs will move along the periphery of the upper ridge from the central/northern High Plains into the Great Lakes. Mid/upper-level flow will generally be rather weak, but may be locally stronger in the vicinity of any shortwave troughs.
Some severe threat could develop where pockets of somewhat stronger flow overlap moderate to strong buoyancy along the periphery of the ridge. An MCS may develop late on D3/Tuesday and move across parts of the central Plains and Midwest into at least early Wednesday. This MCS could persist through the day, with additional development possible along an outflow-influenced front. Other strong to severe storms may again develop across parts of the central/northern High Plains. Confidence regarding the details of any organized severe threat is too low to delineate a 15% area at this time.
D5/Thursday - D8/Sunday
Guidance generally suggests that the persistent upper ridge will continue to weaken with time, resulting in a more zonal pattern by the upcoming weekend. Stronger flow may become increasingly confined to the northern tier of states. This could lead to periodic severe threats across parts of the northern Plains into the Great Lakes and Northeast.
One area of interest is across parts of the northern Plains Friday into Saturday. Some guidance takes a mid/upper-level shortwave trough from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Great Plains during this period, where it may impinge upon increasing low-level moisture and instability, resulting in potential for organized severe storms.
..Dean.. 06/22/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, June 26
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, June 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, June 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, June 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, June 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, June 29 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220832 SPC AC 220832
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Wednesday
Extended-range guidance generally indicates that the persistent upper ridge across the eastern CONUS will begin to dampen on Wednesday. Multiple low-amplitude midlevel shortwave troughs will move along the periphery of the upper ridge from the central/northern High Plains into the Great Lakes. Mid/upper-level flow will generally be rather weak, but may be locally stronger in the vicinity of any shortwave troughs.
Some severe threat could develop where pockets of somewhat stronger flow overlap moderate to strong buoyancy along the periphery of the ridge. An MCS may develop late on D3/Tuesday and move across parts of the central Plains and Midwest into at least early Wednesday. This MCS could persist through the day, with additional development possible along an outflow-influenced front. Other strong to severe storms may again develop across parts of the central/northern High Plains. Confidence regarding the details of any organized severe threat is too low to delineate a 15% area at this time.
D5/Thursday - D8/Sunday
Guidance generally suggests that the persistent upper ridge will continue to weaken with time, resulting in a more zonal pattern by the upcoming weekend. Stronger flow may become increasingly confined to the northern tier of states. This could lead to periodic severe threats across parts of the northern Plains into the Great Lakes and Northeast.
One area of interest is across parts of the northern Plains Friday into Saturday. Some guidance takes a mid/upper-level shortwave trough from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Great Plains during this period, where it may impinge upon increasing low-level moisture and instability, resulting in potential for organized severe storms.
..Dean.. 06/22/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, June 27
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, June 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, June 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, June 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, June 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, June 29 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220832 SPC AC 220832
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Wednesday
Extended-range guidance generally indicates that the persistent upper ridge across the eastern CONUS will begin to dampen on Wednesday. Multiple low-amplitude midlevel shortwave troughs will move along the periphery of the upper ridge from the central/northern High Plains into the Great Lakes. Mid/upper-level flow will generally be rather weak, but may be locally stronger in the vicinity of any shortwave troughs.
Some severe threat could develop where pockets of somewhat stronger flow overlap moderate to strong buoyancy along the periphery of the ridge. An MCS may develop late on D3/Tuesday and move across parts of the central Plains and Midwest into at least early Wednesday. This MCS could persist through the day, with additional development possible along an outflow-influenced front. Other strong to severe storms may again develop across parts of the central/northern High Plains. Confidence regarding the details of any organized severe threat is too low to delineate a 15% area at this time.
D5/Thursday - D8/Sunday
Guidance generally suggests that the persistent upper ridge will continue to weaken with time, resulting in a more zonal pattern by the upcoming weekend. Stronger flow may become increasingly confined to the northern tier of states. This could lead to periodic severe threats across parts of the northern Plains into the Great Lakes and Northeast.
One area of interest is across parts of the northern Plains Friday into Saturday. Some guidance takes a mid/upper-level shortwave trough from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Great Plains during this period, where it may impinge upon increasing low-level moisture and instability, resulting in potential for organized severe storms.
..Dean.. 06/22/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, June 28
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, June 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, June 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, June 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, June 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, June 29 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220832 SPC AC 220832
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Wednesday
Extended-range guidance generally indicates that the persistent upper ridge across the eastern CONUS will begin to dampen on Wednesday. Multiple low-amplitude midlevel shortwave troughs will move along the periphery of the upper ridge from the central/northern High Plains into the Great Lakes. Mid/upper-level flow will generally be rather weak, but may be locally stronger in the vicinity of any shortwave troughs.
Some severe threat could develop where pockets of somewhat stronger flow overlap moderate to strong buoyancy along the periphery of the ridge. An MCS may develop late on D3/Tuesday and move across parts of the central Plains and Midwest into at least early Wednesday. This MCS could persist through the day, with additional development possible along an outflow-influenced front. Other strong to severe storms may again develop across parts of the central/northern High Plains. Confidence regarding the details of any organized severe threat is too low to delineate a 15% area at this time.
D5/Thursday - D8/Sunday
Guidance generally suggests that the persistent upper ridge will continue to weaken with time, resulting in a more zonal pattern by the upcoming weekend. Stronger flow may become increasingly confined to the northern tier of states. This could lead to periodic severe threats across parts of the northern Plains into the Great Lakes and Northeast.
One area of interest is across parts of the northern Plains Friday into Saturday. Some guidance takes a mid/upper-level shortwave trough from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Great Plains during this period, where it may impinge upon increasing low-level moisture and instability, resulting in potential for organized severe storms.
..Dean.. 06/22/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, June 29
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, June 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, June 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, June 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, June 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, June 29 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220832 SPC AC 220832
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Wednesday
Extended-range guidance generally indicates that the persistent upper ridge across the eastern CONUS will begin to dampen on Wednesday. Multiple low-amplitude midlevel shortwave troughs will move along the periphery of the upper ridge from the central/northern High Plains into the Great Lakes. Mid/upper-level flow will generally be rather weak, but may be locally stronger in the vicinity of any shortwave troughs.
Some severe threat could develop where pockets of somewhat stronger flow overlap moderate to strong buoyancy along the periphery of the ridge. An MCS may develop late on D3/Tuesday and move across parts of the central Plains and Midwest into at least early Wednesday. This MCS could persist through the day, with additional development possible along an outflow-influenced front. Other strong to severe storms may again develop across parts of the central/northern High Plains. Confidence regarding the details of any organized severe threat is too low to delineate a 15% area at this time.
D5/Thursday - D8/Sunday
Guidance generally suggests that the persistent upper ridge will continue to weaken with time, resulting in a more zonal pattern by the upcoming weekend. Stronger flow may become increasingly confined to the northern tier of states. This could lead to periodic severe threats across parts of the northern Plains into the Great Lakes and Northeast.
One area of interest is across parts of the northern Plains Friday into Saturday. Some guidance takes a mid/upper-level shortwave trough from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Great Plains during this period, where it may impinge upon increasing low-level moisture and instability, resulting in potential for organized severe storms.
..Dean.. 06/22/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, June 22
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Monday, June 23
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Tuesday, June 24
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Wednesday, June 25
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, June 26
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, June 27
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, June 28
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, June 29
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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