Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, October 29
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. through tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 291959
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026
Valid 292000Z - 301200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. through tonight.
20z Update
Minor changes were made to trim thunder behind ongoing convection and the cold front over the Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. Isolated stronger storms remain possible and across portions of the central Plains later this evening. Intensifying warm air advection could support a few stronger storms with sporadic sub-severe hail as the primary risk across portions of KS and southern NE tonight. However, the lack of stronger upper-level forcing should preclude broader severe potential.
..Lyons.. 10/29/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026/
Synopsis
Water-vapor imagery late this morning indicates a progressive, low-amplitude flow pattern over the contiguous U.S. A cold front will push eastward across the Great Lakes with the western portion of the front stalling over the central Great Plains and slowly advancing northward late tonight.
A few afternoon thunderstorms are expected along the front over parts of the Great Lakes and Midwest regions, but weak CAPE and limited moisture should preclude any severe threat. Farther southwest, a storm or two may develop near the front in the vicinity of southern KS. The weakly forced setup will likely limit storm coverage. Although a strong storm cannot be ruled out, will forego introducing hail probabilities this outlook update. Later tonight, weak warm advection will favor elevated buoyancy and the development of scattered thunderstorms over northeast KS into the adjacent parts of southeast NE/western IA and northwest MO.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Friday, October 30
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of southern/central Arizona on Friday. Damaging wind gusts and large hail will be possible with the strongest storms.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 291729
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of southern/central Arizona on Friday. Damaging wind gusts and large hail will be possible with the strongest storms.
Synopsis
A broad trough off the Northwest coast will strengthen on Friday. Within the Plains, upper-level ridging will intensify from the northern Rockies into parts of the central Plains. Within the Southwest and southern Plains, a developing, nebulous shortwave trough will lift northeastward out of northern Mexico and lead to widespread showers/thunderstorms across parts of these regions. A lingering surface boundary near the lower Missouri Valley will make slow northward progress.
Arizona
Surface troughing within the lower Colorado Valley vicinity will draw low-level moisture into southern/central Arizona. Cloud cover will increase through the day as an intensifying shortwave trough within the subtropical jet stream approaches the Baja Peninsula. Even so, at least areas of filtered surface heating are possible. This, along with subtle mid-level ascent and cooler temperatures aloft, will support scattered convection during the afternoon along the Mogollon Rim and within the surface trough. MLCAPE of 500-1250 J/kg will be possible. Effective shear will not be overly strong (20-30 kt), but will be slowly increasing through the day. The modest buoyancy and impacts from convective outflow will likely result in storm severity being short-lived. Marginally severe hail and damaging winds will be possible with the strongest activity.
Lower Missouri Valley
Elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Friday morning near and north of the surface boundary. 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE could support a stronger storm or two. Small hail appears possible. However, poor lapse rates, weak effective shear, and slight warming at mid levels will keep overall severe potential low.
..Wendt.. 10/29/2026
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Saturday, October 31
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 291927
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.
Synopsis
An upper trough in the Northwest will amplify through the day on Saturday. Within the subtropical jet, a shortwave trough will continue northeastward towards the Baja Peninsula and will begin to phase with the upper trough within the Great Basin.
Thunderstorms will be possible from the central/eastern Texas into the Gulf Coast regions. Weak flow aloft will limit severe potential with this activity. Additional convection will also occur ahead of the trough moving into the Great Basin where temperatures aloft will be cold (-18 to -22 C at 500 mb). While mid-level flow will be strong in some areas, buoyancy will be too limited for a severe risk.
..Wendt.. 10/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Sunday, November 1
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, November 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, November 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, November 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, November 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, November 5 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290742 SPC AC 290742
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Central/Southern Plains to Lower MS Valley Vicinity
An upper trough is forecast to progress eastward from the western states on Day 4/Sun to the MS Valley by Day 8/Thu. As this occurs, a deepening surface cyclone will develop over the central Plains on Sunday night into Monday and slowly shift east toward the Mid/Upper MS Valley through Tuesday. A secondary low may also develop across the southern Plains during this time. As the low progresses east, a strong autumn cold fold will sweep across the Plains.
Strong south/southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread rich boundary layer moisture ahead of the front, and at least modest destabilization is likely. However, deep-layer flow will be parallel to this boundary, with a highly meridional component to deep-layer flow. This may result in widespread heavy rain and training precipitation, especially given this system will only slowly progress eastward, and limit a greater severe thunderstorm risk. Nevertheless, low severe thunderstorm potential is possible across parts of the southern plains toward the Lower MS Valley/Gulf Coast Monday into Tuesday, and possibly Wednesday across the Southeast. At this time, severe potential appears too low/uncertain/conditional to include 15 percent probabilities, but trends will continue to be monitored for increasing severe thunderstorm chances early to mid-week.
..Leitman.. 10/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, November 2
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, November 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, November 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, November 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, November 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, November 5 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290742 SPC AC 290742
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Central/Southern Plains to Lower MS Valley Vicinity
An upper trough is forecast to progress eastward from the western states on Day 4/Sun to the MS Valley by Day 8/Thu. As this occurs, a deepening surface cyclone will develop over the central Plains on Sunday night into Monday and slowly shift east toward the Mid/Upper MS Valley through Tuesday. A secondary low may also develop across the southern Plains during this time. As the low progresses east, a strong autumn cold fold will sweep across the Plains.
Strong south/southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread rich boundary layer moisture ahead of the front, and at least modest destabilization is likely. However, deep-layer flow will be parallel to this boundary, with a highly meridional component to deep-layer flow. This may result in widespread heavy rain and training precipitation, especially given this system will only slowly progress eastward, and limit a greater severe thunderstorm risk. Nevertheless, low severe thunderstorm potential is possible across parts of the southern plains toward the Lower MS Valley/Gulf Coast Monday into Tuesday, and possibly Wednesday across the Southeast. At this time, severe potential appears too low/uncertain/conditional to include 15 percent probabilities, but trends will continue to be monitored for increasing severe thunderstorm chances early to mid-week.
..Leitman.. 10/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, November 3
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, November 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, November 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, November 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, November 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, November 5 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290742 SPC AC 290742
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Central/Southern Plains to Lower MS Valley Vicinity
An upper trough is forecast to progress eastward from the western states on Day 4/Sun to the MS Valley by Day 8/Thu. As this occurs, a deepening surface cyclone will develop over the central Plains on Sunday night into Monday and slowly shift east toward the Mid/Upper MS Valley through Tuesday. A secondary low may also develop across the southern Plains during this time. As the low progresses east, a strong autumn cold fold will sweep across the Plains.
Strong south/southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread rich boundary layer moisture ahead of the front, and at least modest destabilization is likely. However, deep-layer flow will be parallel to this boundary, with a highly meridional component to deep-layer flow. This may result in widespread heavy rain and training precipitation, especially given this system will only slowly progress eastward, and limit a greater severe thunderstorm risk. Nevertheless, low severe thunderstorm potential is possible across parts of the southern plains toward the Lower MS Valley/Gulf Coast Monday into Tuesday, and possibly Wednesday across the Southeast. At this time, severe potential appears too low/uncertain/conditional to include 15 percent probabilities, but trends will continue to be monitored for increasing severe thunderstorm chances early to mid-week.
..Leitman.. 10/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, November 4
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, November 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, November 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, November 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, November 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, November 5 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290742 SPC AC 290742
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Central/Southern Plains to Lower MS Valley Vicinity
An upper trough is forecast to progress eastward from the western states on Day 4/Sun to the MS Valley by Day 8/Thu. As this occurs, a deepening surface cyclone will develop over the central Plains on Sunday night into Monday and slowly shift east toward the Mid/Upper MS Valley through Tuesday. A secondary low may also develop across the southern Plains during this time. As the low progresses east, a strong autumn cold fold will sweep across the Plains.
Strong south/southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread rich boundary layer moisture ahead of the front, and at least modest destabilization is likely. However, deep-layer flow will be parallel to this boundary, with a highly meridional component to deep-layer flow. This may result in widespread heavy rain and training precipitation, especially given this system will only slowly progress eastward, and limit a greater severe thunderstorm risk. Nevertheless, low severe thunderstorm potential is possible across parts of the southern plains toward the Lower MS Valley/Gulf Coast Monday into Tuesday, and possibly Wednesday across the Southeast. At this time, severe potential appears too low/uncertain/conditional to include 15 percent probabilities, but trends will continue to be monitored for increasing severe thunderstorm chances early to mid-week.
..Leitman.. 10/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, November 5
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, November 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, November 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, November 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, November 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, November 5 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290742 SPC AC 290742
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Central/Southern Plains to Lower MS Valley Vicinity
An upper trough is forecast to progress eastward from the western states on Day 4/Sun to the MS Valley by Day 8/Thu. As this occurs, a deepening surface cyclone will develop over the central Plains on Sunday night into Monday and slowly shift east toward the Mid/Upper MS Valley through Tuesday. A secondary low may also develop across the southern Plains during this time. As the low progresses east, a strong autumn cold fold will sweep across the Plains.
Strong south/southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread rich boundary layer moisture ahead of the front, and at least modest destabilization is likely. However, deep-layer flow will be parallel to this boundary, with a highly meridional component to deep-layer flow. This may result in widespread heavy rain and training precipitation, especially given this system will only slowly progress eastward, and limit a greater severe thunderstorm risk. Nevertheless, low severe thunderstorm potential is possible across parts of the southern plains toward the Lower MS Valley/Gulf Coast Monday into Tuesday, and possibly Wednesday across the Southeast. At this time, severe potential appears too low/uncertain/conditional to include 15 percent probabilities, but trends will continue to be monitored for increasing severe thunderstorm chances early to mid-week.
..Leitman.. 10/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, October 29
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Friday, October 30
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Saturday, October 31
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Sunday, November 1
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, November 2
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, November 3
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, November 4
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, November 5
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Your Severe Outlook
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