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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Saturday, October 10

Outlook Summary

The risk for a few tornadoes will continue into this evening across parts of eastern Georgia into southern and eastern South Carolina.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 102000

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Valid 102000Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN GEORGIA INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA

### SUMMARY

The risk for a few tornadoes will continue into this evening across parts of eastern Georgia into southern and eastern South Carolina.

20Z Update

The primary change with this update was the addition of CIG1 tornado area, focused along the border of eastern GA and southern SC. The combination of a large/clockwise-curved low-level hodograph (330 m2/s2 0-1km SRH per CAE VWP) and a warm/moist PBL along an effective warm front will conditionally support a strong tornado with any established supercells this afternoon and evening. For additional details on the near-term severe risk, see Tornado Watch #679.

Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made.

..Weinman.. 10/10/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026/

FL Big Bend/Georgia/Carolinas

Midday surface mesoanalysis places the remnant circulation from Isaias over central AL with a west-east oriented frontal zone extending eastward from the low to the SC coast. A cold front arcs southeast through western GA into the FL Panhandle. The warm sector continues to destabilize as cloud cover thins and stronger heating commences. A bubbling cumulus field will eventually transition to scattered convective development this afternoon. The warm front will gradually advance northward through central SC later today and the coastal plain of NC. Enlarged hodographs will conditionally support storm-scale rotation with stronger and more persistent updrafts. A couple of tornadoes are possible primarily coincident with the diurnal heating cycle when buoyancy will be maximized. Models show surface-based instability eventually inundating northern portions of SC as the warm front advances north tonight. A Marginal Risk for a tornado or two may continue tonight, although uncertainty is high regarding this potential scenario.

Southeast ID

Water-vapor imagery shows an upper trough pivoting slowly east across the Pacific Northwest today. A belt of 40+ kt 500-mb southwesterly flow will extend through the base of the trough and areas downstream across the northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies. As temperatures gradually warm and clouds erode through the mid afternoon, forecast soundings show very steep surface to 500-mb lapse rates and the development of weak buoyancy. Guidance suggests scattered storms developing later this afternoon and moving east across the Upper Snake Valley into western WY. An isolated risk for marginally severe hail and severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms.

Lower CO River Valley into South-Central AZ

Tropical Storm Rachel will undergo an extratropical transition during the period as it moves northeast into the lower CO Valley by early Sunday morning per the latest NHC forecast. An intensification of the wind profile through a deep layer is evident in forecast soundings across the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts especially tonight. Seasonably rich boundary layer moisture advecting north will contribute to at least weak destabilization and the possibility for a few organized updrafts. Will maintain low-severe probabilities this outlook update.

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

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Outlook for Sunday, October 11

Outlook Summary

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing gusty winds and a tornado or two will be possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. Additional strong storms are expected across parts of the Southwest and Great Basin.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 101701

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA

### SUMMARY

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing gusty winds and a tornado or two will be possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. Additional strong storms are expected across parts of the Southwest and Great Basin.

Carolinas to Mid-Atlantic

Strong deep-layer flow will overspread the region as the remnants of Isaias merge with upper troughing from the Ohio Valley to the Southeast. The surface low is expected to be over the central Appalachians Sunday morning, and will shift east/northeast across the Mid-Atlantic through early Monday. A surface front will extend south of the low and shift east across the region. Within the pre-frontal warm sector, a very moist airmass will be in place. Showers and cloudiness are expected across much of the area, and lapse rates will remain poor, limiting widespread stronger destabilization. However, a corridor of around 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE may develop from eastern/central NC into VA, with more limited destabilization expected across the broader region.

Given the strong flow field associated with the remnant/post-tropical system, transient supercell features could occur in one or more pre-frontal bands of convection. Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible, along with a tornado or two.

Southwest/Great Basin vicinity

Strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Lower CO Valley to the Great Basin/central Rockies as an upper trough slowly digs and shifts east across the Pacific coast. The remnants of prior tropical storm Rachel will partially be responsible for enhancement of midlevel flow, and for modest boundary layer moisture across the Lower CO Valley. This system is expected to gradually weaken as it shifts northeast toward the Great Basin/central Rockies through the period.

Pockets of modest destabilization amid favorable vertical shear will support bands of convection. Some transient supercell features will be possible. Given favorable shear and strong background flow, a few strong gusts and a tornado or two will be possible. The northeast extent of severe potential remains somewhat uncertain. Instability will wane with northward extent, but strong deep-layer flow may continue to support gusty winds with convective showers and isolated thunderstorms into parts of UT and western CO.

..Leitman.. 10/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Monday, October 12

Outlook Summary

No severe weather is expected Monday through Monday night.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 101901

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

No severe weather is expected Monday through Monday night.

Discussion

An upper low and attendant shortwave trough will pivot across portions of the Southwest and Great Basin on Monday. An enhanced midlevel jet streak associated with this system and lingering boundary layer moisture will support showers and isolated thunderstorm activity. Instability will remain weak, limiting severe thunderstorm potential.

Further northeast, a weak midlevel shortwave impulse will migrate northeast from the central High Plains toward the Mid/Upper MS Valley, flattening the central U.S. upper ridge. A weak surface low over the Upper MS Valley will shift east through the Great Lakes, and a trailing cold front will sweep southeast across the Upper Midwest to the Mid-MO Valley. Boundary layer moisture will remain modest, but cool temperatures aloft will support modest instability atop midlevel capping across parts of central/southern WI. A few elevated thunderstorms are possible within this modestly sheared and weakly unstable environment ahead of the cold front. Small hail could occur with the strongest storms. However, severe potential appears too limited to include low probabilities at this time.

Additional thunderstorms are possible across portions of south/southeast TX within a low-level warm advection regime on the western periphery of surface high pressure centered over the central Gulf coast vicinity. Isolated thunderstorms may also occur as a cold front develops south across southern FL and the Keys during the afternoon.

..Leitman.. 10/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, October 13

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100820 SPC AC 100820

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

The 00Z models have slowed the progression of an upper low and associated trough from the Great Basin into the central Rockies on Days 4 and 5/Tuesday and Wednesday. By Day 6/Thursday and beyond, model spread increases in the handling of that midlevel system, leading to greater uncertainty in the evolution of the large-scale pattern.

Day 4/Tuesday

There is some model signal that a subtle disturbance embedded within a belt of enhanced mid/upper-level flow will progress from the southern Rockies into the central High Plains, aiding in the deepening of a lee cyclone over southeast CO. Elsewhere, a low-amplitude disturbance is forecast to advance from the Great Lakes into the Northeast, in tandem with another surface low. A frontal system will connect the two lows, stretching from the lower Great Lakes through the OH Valley into the central Plains. A dryline will extend south from the lee cyclone to along the TX-NM border. A moist and unstable air mass will reside south of the front, especially over the central and southern Plains, where richer boundary-layer moisture is expected to reside.

Isolated severe storms appear possible along the front Tuesday afternoon and evening, especially in the Northeast, and from the lower-MO Valley into the central and southern Plains. The most probable location for organized severe storm potential is over the southern High Plains in the vicinity of the lee cyclone and strengthening low-level jet where stronger forcing for ascent and vertical shear will coincide with a moderately unstable air mass.

### Day 5/Wednesday

The slowing of the upper-air system and the potential for thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday morning lead to greater uncertainty in where the strongest instability will develop by afternoon. Isolated severe storms appear possible along and south of a surface front from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the central and southern Plains. However, confidence in delineating an area of more concentrated severe weather potential has diminished. And as such, the previously included 15% contour will be removed for this forecast update.

### Days 6 through 8/Thursday through Saturday

As alluded to above, spread increases across the models (especially the deterministic solutions) in the handling of the central Rockies low/trough. However, the general signal is for a trend toward a less-favorable synoptic pattern for severe storms by next weekend.

..Mead.. 10/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, October 14

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100820 SPC AC 100820

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

The 00Z models have slowed the progression of an upper low and associated trough from the Great Basin into the central Rockies on Days 4 and 5/Tuesday and Wednesday. By Day 6/Thursday and beyond, model spread increases in the handling of that midlevel system, leading to greater uncertainty in the evolution of the large-scale pattern.

Day 4/Tuesday

There is some model signal that a subtle disturbance embedded within a belt of enhanced mid/upper-level flow will progress from the southern Rockies into the central High Plains, aiding in the deepening of a lee cyclone over southeast CO. Elsewhere, a low-amplitude disturbance is forecast to advance from the Great Lakes into the Northeast, in tandem with another surface low. A frontal system will connect the two lows, stretching from the lower Great Lakes through the OH Valley into the central Plains. A dryline will extend south from the lee cyclone to along the TX-NM border. A moist and unstable air mass will reside south of the front, especially over the central and southern Plains, where richer boundary-layer moisture is expected to reside.

Isolated severe storms appear possible along the front Tuesday afternoon and evening, especially in the Northeast, and from the lower-MO Valley into the central and southern Plains. The most probable location for organized severe storm potential is over the southern High Plains in the vicinity of the lee cyclone and strengthening low-level jet where stronger forcing for ascent and vertical shear will coincide with a moderately unstable air mass.

### Day 5/Wednesday

The slowing of the upper-air system and the potential for thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday morning lead to greater uncertainty in where the strongest instability will develop by afternoon. Isolated severe storms appear possible along and south of a surface front from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the central and southern Plains. However, confidence in delineating an area of more concentrated severe weather potential has diminished. And as such, the previously included 15% contour will be removed for this forecast update.

### Days 6 through 8/Thursday through Saturday

As alluded to above, spread increases across the models (especially the deterministic solutions) in the handling of the central Rockies low/trough. However, the general signal is for a trend toward a less-favorable synoptic pattern for severe storms by next weekend.

..Mead.. 10/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Thursday, October 15

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100820 SPC AC 100820

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

The 00Z models have slowed the progression of an upper low and associated trough from the Great Basin into the central Rockies on Days 4 and 5/Tuesday and Wednesday. By Day 6/Thursday and beyond, model spread increases in the handling of that midlevel system, leading to greater uncertainty in the evolution of the large-scale pattern.

Day 4/Tuesday

There is some model signal that a subtle disturbance embedded within a belt of enhanced mid/upper-level flow will progress from the southern Rockies into the central High Plains, aiding in the deepening of a lee cyclone over southeast CO. Elsewhere, a low-amplitude disturbance is forecast to advance from the Great Lakes into the Northeast, in tandem with another surface low. A frontal system will connect the two lows, stretching from the lower Great Lakes through the OH Valley into the central Plains. A dryline will extend south from the lee cyclone to along the TX-NM border. A moist and unstable air mass will reside south of the front, especially over the central and southern Plains, where richer boundary-layer moisture is expected to reside.

Isolated severe storms appear possible along the front Tuesday afternoon and evening, especially in the Northeast, and from the lower-MO Valley into the central and southern Plains. The most probable location for organized severe storm potential is over the southern High Plains in the vicinity of the lee cyclone and strengthening low-level jet where stronger forcing for ascent and vertical shear will coincide with a moderately unstable air mass.

### Day 5/Wednesday

The slowing of the upper-air system and the potential for thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday morning lead to greater uncertainty in where the strongest instability will develop by afternoon. Isolated severe storms appear possible along and south of a surface front from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the central and southern Plains. However, confidence in delineating an area of more concentrated severe weather potential has diminished. And as such, the previously included 15% contour will be removed for this forecast update.

### Days 6 through 8/Thursday through Saturday

As alluded to above, spread increases across the models (especially the deterministic solutions) in the handling of the central Rockies low/trough. However, the general signal is for a trend toward a less-favorable synoptic pattern for severe storms by next weekend.

..Mead.. 10/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Friday, October 16

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100820 SPC AC 100820

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

The 00Z models have slowed the progression of an upper low and associated trough from the Great Basin into the central Rockies on Days 4 and 5/Tuesday and Wednesday. By Day 6/Thursday and beyond, model spread increases in the handling of that midlevel system, leading to greater uncertainty in the evolution of the large-scale pattern.

Day 4/Tuesday

There is some model signal that a subtle disturbance embedded within a belt of enhanced mid/upper-level flow will progress from the southern Rockies into the central High Plains, aiding in the deepening of a lee cyclone over southeast CO. Elsewhere, a low-amplitude disturbance is forecast to advance from the Great Lakes into the Northeast, in tandem with another surface low. A frontal system will connect the two lows, stretching from the lower Great Lakes through the OH Valley into the central Plains. A dryline will extend south from the lee cyclone to along the TX-NM border. A moist and unstable air mass will reside south of the front, especially over the central and southern Plains, where richer boundary-layer moisture is expected to reside.

Isolated severe storms appear possible along the front Tuesday afternoon and evening, especially in the Northeast, and from the lower-MO Valley into the central and southern Plains. The most probable location for organized severe storm potential is over the southern High Plains in the vicinity of the lee cyclone and strengthening low-level jet where stronger forcing for ascent and vertical shear will coincide with a moderately unstable air mass.

### Day 5/Wednesday

The slowing of the upper-air system and the potential for thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday morning lead to greater uncertainty in where the strongest instability will develop by afternoon. Isolated severe storms appear possible along and south of a surface front from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the central and southern Plains. However, confidence in delineating an area of more concentrated severe weather potential has diminished. And as such, the previously included 15% contour will be removed for this forecast update.

### Days 6 through 8/Thursday through Saturday

As alluded to above, spread increases across the models (especially the deterministic solutions) in the handling of the central Rockies low/trough. However, the general signal is for a trend toward a less-favorable synoptic pattern for severe storms by next weekend.

..Mead.. 10/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, October 17

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100820 SPC AC 100820

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

The 00Z models have slowed the progression of an upper low and associated trough from the Great Basin into the central Rockies on Days 4 and 5/Tuesday and Wednesday. By Day 6/Thursday and beyond, model spread increases in the handling of that midlevel system, leading to greater uncertainty in the evolution of the large-scale pattern.

Day 4/Tuesday

There is some model signal that a subtle disturbance embedded within a belt of enhanced mid/upper-level flow will progress from the southern Rockies into the central High Plains, aiding in the deepening of a lee cyclone over southeast CO. Elsewhere, a low-amplitude disturbance is forecast to advance from the Great Lakes into the Northeast, in tandem with another surface low. A frontal system will connect the two lows, stretching from the lower Great Lakes through the OH Valley into the central Plains. A dryline will extend south from the lee cyclone to along the TX-NM border. A moist and unstable air mass will reside south of the front, especially over the central and southern Plains, where richer boundary-layer moisture is expected to reside.

Isolated severe storms appear possible along the front Tuesday afternoon and evening, especially in the Northeast, and from the lower-MO Valley into the central and southern Plains. The most probable location for organized severe storm potential is over the southern High Plains in the vicinity of the lee cyclone and strengthening low-level jet where stronger forcing for ascent and vertical shear will coincide with a moderately unstable air mass.

### Day 5/Wednesday

The slowing of the upper-air system and the potential for thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday morning lead to greater uncertainty in where the strongest instability will develop by afternoon. Isolated severe storms appear possible along and south of a surface front from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the central and southern Plains. However, confidence in delineating an area of more concentrated severe weather potential has diminished. And as such, the previously included 15% contour will be removed for this forecast update.

### Days 6 through 8/Thursday through Saturday

As alluded to above, spread increases across the models (especially the deterministic solutions) in the handling of the central Rockies low/trough. However, the general signal is for a trend toward a less-favorable synoptic pattern for severe storms by next weekend.

..Mead.. 10/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

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National Risk Overview

Saturday, October 10

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 5%

Sunday, October 11

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: low

WIND: 15%

Monday, October 12

ANY SEVERE: low

Tuesday, October 13

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Wednesday, October 14

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Thursday, October 15

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, October 16

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Saturday, October 17

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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