Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, August 25
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across parts of the central/southern Plains, and also across portions of the Upper Midwest. Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are the primary hazards.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 30%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 260059
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026
Valid 260100Z - 261200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
### THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across parts of the central/southern Plains, and also across portions of the Upper Midwest. Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are the primary hazards.
Southern/central High Plains
A storm cluster is moving southeastward across the TX/OK Panhandles this evening. A short-term threat for strong to severe gusts will persist through the evening with this cluster. The evolution of this cluster as it moves into a region influenced by westward-moving outflow is unclear. Cooler temperatures and weaker low-level lapse rates are observed within this outflow, though richer low-level moisture and stronger MUCAPE also noted, which may help to sustain the ongoing cluster and an attendant severe-wind threat through the evening.
Farther north, widely scattered strong to severe storms are ongoing across parts of the central High Plains. Moderate buoyancy and effective shear of 30-40 kt will continue to support a threat of isolated hail and localized strong to severe gusts through dusk. Increasing CINH should eventually lead to a weakening trend later tonight, though any storm clustering this evening could lead to a longer duration of localized severe-wind potential. See MCD 2132 for more information regarding the short-term threat in this area.
Parts of WI/Upper MI
Occasional strong to severe storms have been noted within a storm cluster across northwest WI this evening. MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg and 30-40 kt of effective shear largely orthogonal to the surface front/trough will continue to support supercell potential through dusk, before a gradual weakening trend is expected. See MCD 2133 and WW 626 for more information.
..Dean.. 08/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Wednesday, August 26
Outlook Summary
Isolated to widely scattered severe storms are expected across parts of the central and southern High Plains, Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley, and parts of the Ozarks to Lower Mississippi Valley. Damaging/severe gusts are the main threat across these regions, though large hail is also possible, particularly across the High Plains.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 251658
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS…THE MIDWEST…AND THE OZARKS
### SUMMARY
Isolated to widely scattered severe storms are expected across parts of the central and southern High Plains, Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley, and parts of the Ozarks to Lower Mississippi Valley. Damaging/severe gusts are the main threat across these regions, though large hail is also possible, particularly across the High Plains.
Mid-MS Valley to Lower MI/northwest OH
An upper trough will modestly deepen as it pivots across the region on Wednesday. Modest northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the area as a surface low and trailing cold front move east/southeast through early Thursday. A plume of mid/upper 60s F dewpoints are forecast ahead of the surface front across MO/IL/IN and into lower MI/northwest OH. This will support moderate destabilization through evening. Sufficient vertical shear for organized cells is expected, with forecast soundings indicating 30+ kt effective shear magnitudes and elongated/straight hodographs. Widely scattered convection will pose a risk for damaging gusts and hail. Low-level hodographs are somewhat small in forecast soundings, a tornado or two will be possible (mainly across IN into southern Lower MI) where 0-1 km SRH will be maximized near the surface front where low-level winds are forecast to be more southerly.
Ozarks/Lower MS Valley
An MCV from prior day convection is forecast to be located near northeast OK Wednesday morning. Downstream from this feature, a very moist (70s dewpoints) and strongly unstable airmass will be in place. Deep-layer west/westerly flow will remain modest, but some local enhancement to shear aided by the MCV is possible. Scattered convection will develop by early/mid afternoon. Given large instability, high PW and potential for forward propagation via storm mergers/outflow interactions and sufficient storm coverage, wind damage will be possible, and an upgrade to Slight (level 2 of 5) risk has been included with the Day 2 update.
Central/Southern High Plains
Modest deep-layer northwesterly flow aloft will persist over the region on Wednesday. Low-level upslope flow within modest low-level moisture and 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE will support scattered convection developing near higher terrain during the afternoon. Effective shear magnitudes around 20-30 kt will be sufficient for at least transient organized updrafts. Cool temperatures aloft and elongated hodographs above 3 km will support large hail, with some potential for 2+ inch stones within sustained updrafts across eastern WY/CO where shear will be strongest. Otherwise, steep lapse rates will support strong outflow winds.
..Leitman.. 08/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Thursday, August 27
Outlook Summary
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Northeast on Thursday. Damaging wind, hail and a tornado or two may accompany these storms.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 251913
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST
### SUMMARY
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Northeast on Thursday. Damaging wind, hail and a tornado or two may accompany these storms.
Ohio Valley into the Northeast
Modestly enhanced southwesterly flow will overspread the region to the east of the upper trough axis oriented from the Great Lakes to TN Valley on Thursday. At the surface, a front will develop east/southeast across the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes through the period. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the surface boundary will maintain 60s F dewpoints, supporting weak to moderate destabilization from the Upper Ohio Valley toward the Hudson Valley (decreasing across New England). Scattered thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon and continuing through the evening. Forecast soundings suggest supercells will be possible, with an accompanying risk of damaging winds, hail, and possibly a tornado or two where backed low-level winds persist.
Scattered thunderstorm clusters are expected with southwest extent into southern OH/eastern KY/WV/VA as several shortwave impulses/MCVs migrate through southwesterly flow from the southern to central Appalachians. Vertical shear will be weaker further south, but a moist and unstable airmass could support strong wet microbursts.
Central High Plains
The amplified upper ridge will develop eastward toward the High Plains on Thursday. Low-level moisture will be more limited across eastern CO/NM and vicinity. However, southeasterly low-level flow near a surface boundary will maintain upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints across portions of NE toward the Black Hills in SD. Isolated storms are expected to develop over the Black Hills and within the low-level warm advection regime with southeast extent into NE. Supercell wind profiles suggest strong outflow winds and large hail (some possibly 2+ inch diameter) will be possible. Storm coverage with southward extent is uncertain, but will maintain the Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for now given a conditionally supportive environment.
..Leitman.. 08/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Friday, August 28
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, August 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, August 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, August 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, August 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, September 1 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250827 SPC AC 250827
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe weather is possible across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest starting Day 4/Friday and continuing through the weekend. The specific evolution remains unclear with quite a range of ensemble solutions at this time. Nonetheless, expect severe weather somewhere within this broad region each day.
Day4/Friday
As the upper-level ridge flattens on Friday, lee troughing will develop across the northern High Plains. Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop across the western Dakotas ahead of this lee trough. Any weak mid-level shortwave trough to provide a focus for this threat remains nebulous. Therefore, the location of any surface features remains unclear and thus, it is difficult to highlight a more specific region with a greater severe weather probability at this time.
Day5/Saturday
Severe weather may be possible across portions of the Upper Midwest on Saturday, but this threat will be somewhat dependent on the location and intensity of Day 4 convection.
Day6/Sunday
The ECMWF and AI-ECMWF remain relatively consistent showing a trough traversing the northwest on Saturday and emerging across the northern Plains on Sunday. Meanwhile, the GFS and AI-GFS have trended more progressive, and the individual GEFS members show substantial spread in the upper-level pattern for Sunday/Day6. The relative consistency in timing and location of the upper-level trough from the ECMWF build confidence for this solution. However, even the ECMWF and AI-ECMWF trended slightly less amplified with this trough. Therefore, the combination of large spread in the upper pattern from GEFS members and a slightly deamplified trend from the ECMWF provide enough uncertainty to avoid adding probabilities at this time.
..Bentley.. 08/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, August 29
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, August 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, August 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, August 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, August 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, September 1 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250827 SPC AC 250827
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe weather is possible across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest starting Day 4/Friday and continuing through the weekend. The specific evolution remains unclear with quite a range of ensemble solutions at this time. Nonetheless, expect severe weather somewhere within this broad region each day.
Day4/Friday
As the upper-level ridge flattens on Friday, lee troughing will develop across the northern High Plains. Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop across the western Dakotas ahead of this lee trough. Any weak mid-level shortwave trough to provide a focus for this threat remains nebulous. Therefore, the location of any surface features remains unclear and thus, it is difficult to highlight a more specific region with a greater severe weather probability at this time.
Day5/Saturday
Severe weather may be possible across portions of the Upper Midwest on Saturday, but this threat will be somewhat dependent on the location and intensity of Day 4 convection.
Day6/Sunday
The ECMWF and AI-ECMWF remain relatively consistent showing a trough traversing the northwest on Saturday and emerging across the northern Plains on Sunday. Meanwhile, the GFS and AI-GFS have trended more progressive, and the individual GEFS members show substantial spread in the upper-level pattern for Sunday/Day6. The relative consistency in timing and location of the upper-level trough from the ECMWF build confidence for this solution. However, even the ECMWF and AI-ECMWF trended slightly less amplified with this trough. Therefore, the combination of large spread in the upper pattern from GEFS members and a slightly deamplified trend from the ECMWF provide enough uncertainty to avoid adding probabilities at this time.
..Bentley.. 08/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, August 30
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, August 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, August 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, August 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, August 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, September 1 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250827 SPC AC 250827
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe weather is possible across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest starting Day 4/Friday and continuing through the weekend. The specific evolution remains unclear with quite a range of ensemble solutions at this time. Nonetheless, expect severe weather somewhere within this broad region each day.
Day4/Friday
As the upper-level ridge flattens on Friday, lee troughing will develop across the northern High Plains. Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop across the western Dakotas ahead of this lee trough. Any weak mid-level shortwave trough to provide a focus for this threat remains nebulous. Therefore, the location of any surface features remains unclear and thus, it is difficult to highlight a more specific region with a greater severe weather probability at this time.
Day5/Saturday
Severe weather may be possible across portions of the Upper Midwest on Saturday, but this threat will be somewhat dependent on the location and intensity of Day 4 convection.
Day6/Sunday
The ECMWF and AI-ECMWF remain relatively consistent showing a trough traversing the northwest on Saturday and emerging across the northern Plains on Sunday. Meanwhile, the GFS and AI-GFS have trended more progressive, and the individual GEFS members show substantial spread in the upper-level pattern for Sunday/Day6. The relative consistency in timing and location of the upper-level trough from the ECMWF build confidence for this solution. However, even the ECMWF and AI-ECMWF trended slightly less amplified with this trough. Therefore, the combination of large spread in the upper pattern from GEFS members and a slightly deamplified trend from the ECMWF provide enough uncertainty to avoid adding probabilities at this time.
..Bentley.. 08/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, August 31
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, August 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, August 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, August 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, August 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, September 1 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250827 SPC AC 250827
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe weather is possible across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest starting Day 4/Friday and continuing through the weekend. The specific evolution remains unclear with quite a range of ensemble solutions at this time. Nonetheless, expect severe weather somewhere within this broad region each day.
Day4/Friday
As the upper-level ridge flattens on Friday, lee troughing will develop across the northern High Plains. Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop across the western Dakotas ahead of this lee trough. Any weak mid-level shortwave trough to provide a focus for this threat remains nebulous. Therefore, the location of any surface features remains unclear and thus, it is difficult to highlight a more specific region with a greater severe weather probability at this time.
Day5/Saturday
Severe weather may be possible across portions of the Upper Midwest on Saturday, but this threat will be somewhat dependent on the location and intensity of Day 4 convection.
Day6/Sunday
The ECMWF and AI-ECMWF remain relatively consistent showing a trough traversing the northwest on Saturday and emerging across the northern Plains on Sunday. Meanwhile, the GFS and AI-GFS have trended more progressive, and the individual GEFS members show substantial spread in the upper-level pattern for Sunday/Day6. The relative consistency in timing and location of the upper-level trough from the ECMWF build confidence for this solution. However, even the ECMWF and AI-ECMWF trended slightly less amplified with this trough. Therefore, the combination of large spread in the upper pattern from GEFS members and a slightly deamplified trend from the ECMWF provide enough uncertainty to avoid adding probabilities at this time.
..Bentley.. 08/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, September 1
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, August 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, August 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, August 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, August 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, September 1 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250827 SPC AC 250827
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe weather is possible across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest starting Day 4/Friday and continuing through the weekend. The specific evolution remains unclear with quite a range of ensemble solutions at this time. Nonetheless, expect severe weather somewhere within this broad region each day.
Day4/Friday
As the upper-level ridge flattens on Friday, lee troughing will develop across the northern High Plains. Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop across the western Dakotas ahead of this lee trough. Any weak mid-level shortwave trough to provide a focus for this threat remains nebulous. Therefore, the location of any surface features remains unclear and thus, it is difficult to highlight a more specific region with a greater severe weather probability at this time.
Day5/Saturday
Severe weather may be possible across portions of the Upper Midwest on Saturday, but this threat will be somewhat dependent on the location and intensity of Day 4 convection.
Day6/Sunday
The ECMWF and AI-ECMWF remain relatively consistent showing a trough traversing the northwest on Saturday and emerging across the northern Plains on Sunday. Meanwhile, the GFS and AI-GFS have trended more progressive, and the individual GEFS members show substantial spread in the upper-level pattern for Sunday/Day6. The relative consistency in timing and location of the upper-level trough from the ECMWF build confidence for this solution. However, even the ECMWF and AI-ECMWF trended slightly less amplified with this trough. Therefore, the combination of large spread in the upper pattern from GEFS members and a slightly deamplified trend from the ECMWF provide enough uncertainty to avoid adding probabilities at this time.
..Bentley.. 08/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, August 25
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 30%
- Wednesday, August 26
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Thursday, August 27
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Friday, August 28
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, August 29
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, August 30
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, August 31
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, September 1
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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