Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, December 9
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorm potential appears negligible today through tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 090502
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorm potential appears negligible today through tonight.
Discussion
Conditions will be too dry/stable for lightning-producing convection across the CONUS through the period. Isolated thunderstorms are possible today across the FL Straits near a quasi-stationary front that progressed offshore of the FL Peninsula/Keys on Monday.
..Grams/Jirak.. 12/09/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Wednesday, December 10
Outlook Summary
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Wednesday through Wednesday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 090504
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1104 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Wednesday through Wednesday night.
Discussion
Models continue to indicate that another mid-level high will begin to build near the Aleutians during this period, but little change is forecast to the general downstream flow, inland across the Pacific coast into portions of the Canadian Prairies and U.S. Great Plains, through at least Wednesday night. Farther downstream, it still appears that large-scale mid/upper troughing will be reinforced across and east of the Mississippi Valley by at least a few digging short wave perturbations. There remains notable spread concerning the smaller-scale developments, including at least one compact, but vigorous, perturbation digging toward the Great Lakes region, after emerging from the southern Hudson Bay vicinity, and a couple of others of northern mid-latitude Pacific origin progressing through the flow to its south through southeast. Regardless, related surface developments are not likely to promote a southerly return flow off the Gulf Basin, where boundary-layer modification in the wake of the prior front will only be gradually underway. Stable conditions will generally prevail across the U.S., with negligible risk for thunderstorm activity.
..Kerr.. 12/09/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Thursday, December 11
Outlook Summary
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Thursday through Thursday night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 090742
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Tue Dec 09 2025
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Thursday through Thursday night.
Discussion
Downstream of an increasingly prominent, blocking high building near and to the north of the Aleutians during this period, models indicate that strong flow will take on an increasing northwesterly component across southern British Columbia and adjacent portions of the Pacific Northwest into portions of the Canadian Prairies and northern U.S. Great Plains. It appears that a significant short wave trough near the leading edge of this regime will begin to reinforce broad mid-level troughing extending downstream into the western Atlantic.
While mid-level flow is likely to remain cyclonic as far south as the Gulf Coast states into the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes of the western Atlantic, heights across the south are forecast to begin to rise, as a prominent perturbation accelerates rapidly east-northeast of the lower Great Lakes region through the Canadian Maritimes.
The primary surface front, trailing an evolving cyclone across the Canadian Maritimes, may stall across the southern Atlantic coast through Tennessee Valley, while progressing slowly southward through the lower Missouri Valley and central Great Plains by late Thursday night, in advance of much colder air beginning to nose southward to the lee of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies.
As a remnant preceding front becomes more diffuse across the central through northwestern Gulf Basin, Gulf boundary-layer modification may gradually continue, as a weak southerly return flow begins to develop across the Texas coast. However, beneath relatively warm and dry lower/mid-levels, it does not appears that this will contribute to appreciable destabilization during this period.
..Kerr.. 12/09/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Friday, December 12
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, December 12 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, December 13 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, December 14 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, December 15 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, December 16 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090927 SPC AC 090927
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 AM CST Tue Dec 09 2025
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range models indicate that at least a couple of short wave troughs, digging within an initially strong northwesterly regime across and to the east-southeast of the Canadian Rockies, will contribute to reinforcement of large-scale troughing farther downstream late this work week into next weekend. As this occurs, cold surface ridging building to the lee of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies is forecast to eventually overspread much of the central and eastern U.S., offshore Atlantic and northwestern Gulf Basin by the beginning of next week.
Based on the past few model runs, it appears that an initial southeastward surge of cold air may weaken before reaching the Gulf coast, allowing for a gradual boundary-layer modification over the northwestern Gulf Basin to continue, before the more substantive surge of cold air reaches the northern Gulf by late this weekend. Particularly in association with the stronger front, if not also the weaker initial one, a moistening elevated and perhaps boundary-layer based return flow may contribute to sufficient destabilization to support a risk for thunderstorms, anywhere in a corridor from southeastern Texas toward the Mid South and Tennessee Valley. However, with any surface frontal wave development forecast to remain weak, the risk for severe weather is likely to remain low.
Into early next week, model output becomes more varied, but it appears that flow may trend more zonal across the northern mid-latitudes of North America. In lower latitudes, another developing moist southerly return flow, in advance of troughing digging across the southern Rockies and Great Plains, may contribute to renewed thunderstorm development across the northwestern Gulf coast vicinity. However, the potential for severe weather still seems limited at this time.
..Kerr.. 12/09/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, December 13
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, December 12 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, December 13 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, December 14 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, December 15 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, December 16 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090927 SPC AC 090927
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 AM CST Tue Dec 09 2025
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range models indicate that at least a couple of short wave troughs, digging within an initially strong northwesterly regime across and to the east-southeast of the Canadian Rockies, will contribute to reinforcement of large-scale troughing farther downstream late this work week into next weekend. As this occurs, cold surface ridging building to the lee of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies is forecast to eventually overspread much of the central and eastern U.S., offshore Atlantic and northwestern Gulf Basin by the beginning of next week.
Based on the past few model runs, it appears that an initial southeastward surge of cold air may weaken before reaching the Gulf coast, allowing for a gradual boundary-layer modification over the northwestern Gulf Basin to continue, before the more substantive surge of cold air reaches the northern Gulf by late this weekend. Particularly in association with the stronger front, if not also the weaker initial one, a moistening elevated and perhaps boundary-layer based return flow may contribute to sufficient destabilization to support a risk for thunderstorms, anywhere in a corridor from southeastern Texas toward the Mid South and Tennessee Valley. However, with any surface frontal wave development forecast to remain weak, the risk for severe weather is likely to remain low.
Into early next week, model output becomes more varied, but it appears that flow may trend more zonal across the northern mid-latitudes of North America. In lower latitudes, another developing moist southerly return flow, in advance of troughing digging across the southern Rockies and Great Plains, may contribute to renewed thunderstorm development across the northwestern Gulf coast vicinity. However, the potential for severe weather still seems limited at this time.
..Kerr.. 12/09/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, December 14
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, December 12 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, December 13 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, December 14 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, December 15 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, December 16 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090927 SPC AC 090927
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 AM CST Tue Dec 09 2025
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range models indicate that at least a couple of short wave troughs, digging within an initially strong northwesterly regime across and to the east-southeast of the Canadian Rockies, will contribute to reinforcement of large-scale troughing farther downstream late this work week into next weekend. As this occurs, cold surface ridging building to the lee of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies is forecast to eventually overspread much of the central and eastern U.S., offshore Atlantic and northwestern Gulf Basin by the beginning of next week.
Based on the past few model runs, it appears that an initial southeastward surge of cold air may weaken before reaching the Gulf coast, allowing for a gradual boundary-layer modification over the northwestern Gulf Basin to continue, before the more substantive surge of cold air reaches the northern Gulf by late this weekend. Particularly in association with the stronger front, if not also the weaker initial one, a moistening elevated and perhaps boundary-layer based return flow may contribute to sufficient destabilization to support a risk for thunderstorms, anywhere in a corridor from southeastern Texas toward the Mid South and Tennessee Valley. However, with any surface frontal wave development forecast to remain weak, the risk for severe weather is likely to remain low.
Into early next week, model output becomes more varied, but it appears that flow may trend more zonal across the northern mid-latitudes of North America. In lower latitudes, another developing moist southerly return flow, in advance of troughing digging across the southern Rockies and Great Plains, may contribute to renewed thunderstorm development across the northwestern Gulf coast vicinity. However, the potential for severe weather still seems limited at this time.
..Kerr.. 12/09/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, December 15
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, December 12 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, December 13 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, December 14 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, December 15 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, December 16 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090927 SPC AC 090927
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 AM CST Tue Dec 09 2025
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range models indicate that at least a couple of short wave troughs, digging within an initially strong northwesterly regime across and to the east-southeast of the Canadian Rockies, will contribute to reinforcement of large-scale troughing farther downstream late this work week into next weekend. As this occurs, cold surface ridging building to the lee of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies is forecast to eventually overspread much of the central and eastern U.S., offshore Atlantic and northwestern Gulf Basin by the beginning of next week.
Based on the past few model runs, it appears that an initial southeastward surge of cold air may weaken before reaching the Gulf coast, allowing for a gradual boundary-layer modification over the northwestern Gulf Basin to continue, before the more substantive surge of cold air reaches the northern Gulf by late this weekend. Particularly in association with the stronger front, if not also the weaker initial one, a moistening elevated and perhaps boundary-layer based return flow may contribute to sufficient destabilization to support a risk for thunderstorms, anywhere in a corridor from southeastern Texas toward the Mid South and Tennessee Valley. However, with any surface frontal wave development forecast to remain weak, the risk for severe weather is likely to remain low.
Into early next week, model output becomes more varied, but it appears that flow may trend more zonal across the northern mid-latitudes of North America. In lower latitudes, another developing moist southerly return flow, in advance of troughing digging across the southern Rockies and Great Plains, may contribute to renewed thunderstorm development across the northwestern Gulf coast vicinity. However, the potential for severe weather still seems limited at this time.
..Kerr.. 12/09/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, December 16
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, December 12 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, December 13 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, December 14 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, December 15 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, December 16 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090927 SPC AC 090927
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 AM CST Tue Dec 09 2025
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range models indicate that at least a couple of short wave troughs, digging within an initially strong northwesterly regime across and to the east-southeast of the Canadian Rockies, will contribute to reinforcement of large-scale troughing farther downstream late this work week into next weekend. As this occurs, cold surface ridging building to the lee of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies is forecast to eventually overspread much of the central and eastern U.S., offshore Atlantic and northwestern Gulf Basin by the beginning of next week.
Based on the past few model runs, it appears that an initial southeastward surge of cold air may weaken before reaching the Gulf coast, allowing for a gradual boundary-layer modification over the northwestern Gulf Basin to continue, before the more substantive surge of cold air reaches the northern Gulf by late this weekend. Particularly in association with the stronger front, if not also the weaker initial one, a moistening elevated and perhaps boundary-layer based return flow may contribute to sufficient destabilization to support a risk for thunderstorms, anywhere in a corridor from southeastern Texas toward the Mid South and Tennessee Valley. However, with any surface frontal wave development forecast to remain weak, the risk for severe weather is likely to remain low.
Into early next week, model output becomes more varied, but it appears that flow may trend more zonal across the northern mid-latitudes of North America. In lower latitudes, another developing moist southerly return flow, in advance of troughing digging across the southern Rockies and Great Plains, may contribute to renewed thunderstorm development across the northwestern Gulf coast vicinity. However, the potential for severe weather still seems limited at this time.
..Kerr.. 12/09/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, December 9
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Wednesday, December 10
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Thursday, December 11
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Friday, December 12
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, December 13
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, December 14
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, December 15
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, December 16
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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