Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Sunday, June 28

Monday, June 29

Tuesday, June 30

Wednesday, July 1

Thursday, July 2

Friday, July 3

Saturday, July 4

Sunday, July 5

Outlook for Sunday, June 28

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are expected mainly tonight across the Dakotas. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary hazards. Thunderstorms capable of scattered wind damage are possible in parts of the Carolinas.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind 15%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 281631

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Valid 281630Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS…CAROLINAS…AND A PART OF THE MIDWEST

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are expected mainly tonight across the Dakotas. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary hazards. Thunderstorms capable of scattered wind damage are possible in parts of the Carolinas.

Dakotas/northern Plains

A belt of south-southwesterly mid-level flow near 50 kt will be maintained from Colorado to the Dakotas, east of the broad closed low over the northern Great Basin/Rockies. A separate lee cyclone is expected to form in the vicinity of northeast Colorado this afternoon and then progress northeastward across Nebraska/South Dakota overnight.

A few storms will be possible in North Dakota during the afternoon with perhaps an isolated severe risk developing, but the primary regional severe risk is expected tonight. Much of the severe threat will likely focus after dark immediately north of the lee cyclone into South Dakota as low-level moisture steadily spreads west-northwestward. This increasing moisture and forcing for ascent preceding the surface cyclone (and subtle embedded speed maxima aloft) will likely support thunderstorm development overnight across western South Dakota into southern North Dakota. The environment will favor supercells, which will tend to be elevated, and small thunderstorm clusters capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts.

Upper Mississippi Valley

A bowing cluster has weakened and tended to grow downscale this morning but otherwise persists across eastern Iowa at midday. Some redevelopment/re-intensification could occur on the cluster's southern periphery near a warm front. However, this is highly uncertain given the increasing mid-level capping/EML advection the remainder of the night.

Later tonight, a zone of low-level warm advection will be focused across Wisconsin along the northeast edge of the warm elevated mixed layer. Sufficient moistening above the surface and large CAPE will favor the potential for at least isolated large hail/strong gusts with mostly elevated storms tonight.

Carolinas and far southern Virginia this afternoon/evening

A convectively augmented mid-level disturbance over the southern Appalachians will move southeastward into the Piedmont by this afternoon. An airmass sampled by area 12 UTC raobs (PW near 2 inches) will heat/destabilize to the south of a patch of clouds that are more prevalent over western North Carolina. Steepening low-level lapse rates and a belt of slightly stronger westerly 3-6 km flow (30 kt) may act to loosely organize cold pools of developing thunderstorm clusters. Isolated to scattered wind damage (50-60 mph gusts) will be the primary hazard with the more intense water-loaded thunderstorm cores until around sunset.

West Texas late this afternoon/evening

Strong surface heating and deep mixing along a sharpening dryline will allow high-based thunderstorm development from late afternoon through late evening. Flow aloft will be weak, but inverted-V profiles will yield isolated severe outflow gusts of 60-75 mph.

..Guyer/Supinie.. 06/28/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

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Outlook for Monday, June 29

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest on Monday. Large hail and severe winds are the primary concerns, though a couple of tornadoes may also occur.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 5%

wind 15%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 281658

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest on Monday. Large hail and severe winds are the primary concerns, though a couple of tornadoes may also occur.

Synopsis

An upper low and attendant shortwave trough, initially over the northern Rockies, will eject east/northeast across the northern Plains on Monday. This will bring a belt of enhanced mid/upper south/southwesterly flow across parts of the northern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest. At the surface, low pressure will deepen over SD and lift north/northeast through evening. A trailing cold front/dryline will move across the Dakotas and portions of NE after 00z while a warm front lifts northward across parts of eastern ND and northern MN through the day. A secondary lee surface low will develop over the central High Plains, with a dryline extending south/southwest across western KS into southwest TX.

Dakotas/Mid-MO Valley/Upper Midwest

Uncertainty over mesoscale details persists this forecast cycle, though overall model guidance continues to show better agreement. Convection appears likely to be ongoing Monday morning across the central Dakotas near the deepening surface low and northward extending frontal occlusion. This activity may be elevated, but supercell wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings with elongated/straight hodographs noted amid 50+ kt effective shear magnitudes. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will be in place across the region and elevated convection will pose a risk for large to very large hail early in the day as storms move northward.

A very moist and unstable airmass will reside across the region, with strong to extreme instability depicted in forecast guidance. Convective evolution is uncertain. The extent of morning convection could augment the northward extent of the richer boundary layer moisture and instability. Guidance also varies in regards to the evolution of the surface low, with some guidance being slower and other solutions much faster. Nevertheless, the surface low/triple point, warm front, and surface tough/cold front will be areas for concern for convective development during the day and into the afternoon. If supercells can develop and be surface-based near the warm front, an all-hazards severe risk is evident given the very favorable thermodynamic and kinematic parameter space. While initial supercells are possible during the evening along the cold front from the Mid-MO Valley into southern MN, boundary-parallel deep-layer flow and an intensifying low-level jet could result in rapid upscale growth into a bowing segment during the nighttime hours. This could result in an increase in damaging wind potential if nighttime convection can be near-surface based.

KS/OK/TX

Isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms are likely during the evening along the dryline. Instability and vertical shear will be modest, limiting longevity of stronger updrafts. Nevertheless, a deeply mixed boundary layer with inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles could support strong outflow gusts. Overall severe potential appears limited, precluding marginal probabilities at this time.

Southeast

Moderate instability will develop amid a seasonally moist airmass near the Savannah River into GA Monday afternoon/early evening. A backdoor/wedge front is expected to push south/southwest across SC and may contribute to isolated to scattered thunderstorm development by peak heating within a deep-layer northwesterly flow regime. Vertical shear will be weak, but occasional sub-severe gusty outflows will be possible, mainly across central/southern GA.

..Leitman.. 06/28/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, June 30

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms will be possible from parts of the central High Plains into the Upper Midwest on Tuesday.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 280730

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms will be possible from parts of the central High Plains into the Upper Midwest on Tuesday.

Upper Midwest

Though the primary shortwave trough will be lifting into Canada, a remnant cold front will be situated across parts of northern Wisconsin into Minnesota. Strong to extreme buoyancy will be present south of this boundary. A belt of moderate mid-level flow will promote 40-45 kt of effective shear within the warm sector. Mid-level ascent will generally be weak. Where convection can initiate on the mesoscale, damaging winds and large hail may occur. There is some potential that an MCS could develop given the substantial buoyancy, but it is not clear where the preferred corridor for that will be at this time.

Northeast Colorado into southwest Nebraska

A modest shortwave trough will move into the central Rockies. A surface low is expected to develop in eastern Colorado. This will draw low-level moisture into parts of the High Plains. Given around 40 kt of effective shear, supercells capable of large hail and severe gusts would be possible. Low-level shear will also be enhanced near the surface low and a tornado or two could also occur.

Northeast

Given the upper-level pattern, strong convection could be occurring in Canada and move southeastward around the upper ridge. Depending on the timing/intensity of this potential activity, severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks. Confidence remains low at this time, however.

..Wendt.. 06/28/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, July 1

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, July 1	predictability too low
Day 5	Thursday, July 2	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, July 3	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, July 4	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, July 5	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280846 SPC AC 280846

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

DISCUSSION

Relatively little change is expected in the upper-level pattern from mid to late this week. A broad trough in the West will bring southwesterly flow across the Rockies and parts of the Plains. In the East, an upper ridge will persist. During the weekend, models are in general agreement that the upper ridge will flatten and broaden across the southern U.S. This pattern will favor the maintenance of a very moist airmass within parts of the Plains into the Midwest and Southeast. The lack of more notable mid-level and surface features decrease predictability with regard to where severe convection may occur. That being said, subtle surface boundaries/shortwave troughs may promote convective development each day within parts of the Plains/Midwest. Trends in model guidance will continue to be monitored, but confidence remains low in placing severe probabilities.

..Wendt.. 06/28/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Thursday, July 2

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, July 1	predictability too low
Day 5	Thursday, July 2	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, July 3	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, July 4	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, July 5	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280846 SPC AC 280846

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

DISCUSSION

Relatively little change is expected in the upper-level pattern from mid to late this week. A broad trough in the West will bring southwesterly flow across the Rockies and parts of the Plains. In the East, an upper ridge will persist. During the weekend, models are in general agreement that the upper ridge will flatten and broaden across the southern U.S. This pattern will favor the maintenance of a very moist airmass within parts of the Plains into the Midwest and Southeast. The lack of more notable mid-level and surface features decrease predictability with regard to where severe convection may occur. That being said, subtle surface boundaries/shortwave troughs may promote convective development each day within parts of the Plains/Midwest. Trends in model guidance will continue to be monitored, but confidence remains low in placing severe probabilities.

..Wendt.. 06/28/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Friday, July 3

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, July 1	predictability too low
Day 5	Thursday, July 2	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, July 3	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, July 4	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, July 5	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280846 SPC AC 280846

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

DISCUSSION

Relatively little change is expected in the upper-level pattern from mid to late this week. A broad trough in the West will bring southwesterly flow across the Rockies and parts of the Plains. In the East, an upper ridge will persist. During the weekend, models are in general agreement that the upper ridge will flatten and broaden across the southern U.S. This pattern will favor the maintenance of a very moist airmass within parts of the Plains into the Midwest and Southeast. The lack of more notable mid-level and surface features decrease predictability with regard to where severe convection may occur. That being said, subtle surface boundaries/shortwave troughs may promote convective development each day within parts of the Plains/Midwest. Trends in model guidance will continue to be monitored, but confidence remains low in placing severe probabilities.

..Wendt.. 06/28/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Saturday, July 4

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, July 1	predictability too low
Day 5	Thursday, July 2	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, July 3	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, July 4	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, July 5	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280846 SPC AC 280846

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

DISCUSSION

Relatively little change is expected in the upper-level pattern from mid to late this week. A broad trough in the West will bring southwesterly flow across the Rockies and parts of the Plains. In the East, an upper ridge will persist. During the weekend, models are in general agreement that the upper ridge will flatten and broaden across the southern U.S. This pattern will favor the maintenance of a very moist airmass within parts of the Plains into the Midwest and Southeast. The lack of more notable mid-level and surface features decrease predictability with regard to where severe convection may occur. That being said, subtle surface boundaries/shortwave troughs may promote convective development each day within parts of the Plains/Midwest. Trends in model guidance will continue to be monitored, but confidence remains low in placing severe probabilities.

..Wendt.. 06/28/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Sunday, July 5

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, July 1	predictability too low
Day 5	Thursday, July 2	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, July 3	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, July 4	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, July 5	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280846 SPC AC 280846

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

DISCUSSION

Relatively little change is expected in the upper-level pattern from mid to late this week. A broad trough in the West will bring southwesterly flow across the Rockies and parts of the Plains. In the East, an upper ridge will persist. During the weekend, models are in general agreement that the upper ridge will flatten and broaden across the southern U.S. This pattern will favor the maintenance of a very moist airmass within parts of the Plains into the Midwest and Southeast. The lack of more notable mid-level and surface features decrease predictability with regard to where severe convection may occur. That being said, subtle surface boundaries/shortwave troughs may promote convective development each day within parts of the Plains/Midwest. Trends in model guidance will continue to be monitored, but confidence remains low in placing severe probabilities.

..Wendt.. 06/28/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

National Risk Overview

Sunday, June 28: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Monday, June 29: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Tuesday, June 30: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Wednesday, July 1: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, July 2: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, July 3: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, July 4: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, July 5: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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