Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, August 22
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Mid South with 60 to 75 mph gusts being the primary hazard. Scattered damaging winds are possible this afternoon across parts of the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 221630
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026
Valid 221630Z - 231200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND THE MID SOUTH
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Mid South with 60 to 75 mph gusts being the primary hazard. Scattered damaging winds are possible this afternoon across parts of the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians.
Ohio Valley into the Central Appalachians and Tennessee/Lower Mississippi Valleys
An upper trough continues to dig southeast across the southwest Great Lakes during the midday as a surface front advances slowly east across the southern Great Lakes and OH Valley. Late morning surface analysis places a moist plume (65 to 70 deg F surface dewpoints) extending northeastward ahead of the front from the lower OH Valley into northeast OH. Visible satellite imagery shows a swelling cumulus field across the upper OH Valley where moderate buoyancy has developed. A gradual increase in thunderstorm coverage and intensity is expected, with 20-30 kt of effective bulk shear fostering enough updraft organization for multicell clusters capable of producing scattered damaging winds. See MCD #2081 for short-term details. These thunderstorms will spread eastward from the upper OH Valley into the central Appalachians this afternoon and evening before eventually weakening with eastward extent. Isolated hail may occur with the stronger cores that develop, but the poor mid-level lapse rates present may limit this threat to some extent. There also appears to be some chance for strong to locally severe thunderstorms to develop along/east of the Blue Ridge Mountains this afternoon. If this occurs, then occasional damaging winds would be the main threat with this activity.
Southern/Central Plains into the Mid South
Satellite imagery late this morning shows a pair of convectively enhanced mid-level vorticity maxima moving southeast over eastern KS/OK on the eastern periphery of upper ridging centered over NM. Weak thunderstorm activity continues to progress southeast over eastern KS towards the Ozarks, where the airmass has heated near 90 deg F to the downstream of greater cloud cover. Surface analysis this morning showed a reservoir of richer moisture (lower 70s deg F surface dewpoints) south of a stalled west-east frontal zone. Additional heating/destabilization ahead of the southeastward-moving thunderstorms and associated MCV will act to pre-condition the environment to support a greater risk for severe gusts and wind damage across parts of the Mid South this afternoon and early evening. CAM model guidance both from a model core and time-lagged ensemble, suggest the eventual development of a linear cluster developing over the Ozarks and moving east-southeast into a hot/unstable airmass featuring very steep 0-3 km lapse rates. Mid to upper-level flow will tend to weaken with southeast extent, but ample cloud-bearing shear for storm organization is evident. Have upgraded a corridor from northern ARK into northern MS where confidence is highest on an MCS developing and an associated risk for severe gusts and wind damage.
Additional isolated storm development is expected later today across parts of the southern Great Plains. Moderate to locally strong instability, very steep low-level lapse rates, and moderate northwesterly deep-layer shear should support some clustering/updraft organization. Occasional hail and severe gusts may occur as thunderstorms spread southward this afternoon/evening.
Central High Plains/Front Range
A separate area of convection is forecast to develop this afternoon along the Front Range/Laramie Mountains in a weak post-frontal low-level upslope regime. While effective bulk shear should be somewhat weaker across this region, a narrow corridor of greater instability is forecast across the central High Plains. This may support loosely organized multicells and marginal supercells with an isolated severe hail/wind threat.
Great Basin/Northern Rockies into the Northwest
Upper ridging will remain prominent from the Southwest into the northern Rockies/High Plains today. On the western periphery of this ridging, an upper trough/low will move northward along/near the coast of the Pacific Northwest. Enhanced south-southwesterly mid-level flow will overspread parts of the Great Basin, northern Rockies, and Northwest through the period, with the strongest winds forecast over WA/OR. Low-level moisture remains fairly limited over most of these regions, with somewhat greater surface dewpoints present over parts of the Great Basin.
Diurnal heating should support modest destabilization and weak instability from the northern Great Basin into the interior Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Thunderstorms will develop this afternoon as the large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough/low overspreads these regions in tandem with orographic effects across the higher terrain. Where low-level lapse rates can become sufficiently steepened with a dry/well-mixed sub-cloud layer, isolated severe/damaging winds may occur. The overall severe threat should be limited by weak instability.
..Smith/Chalmers.. 08/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Sunday, August 23
Outlook Summary
Strong thunderstorm activity posing at least some risk for severe hail and wind appears possible across parts of the northern Rockies and Great Plains, and across parts of the eastern Great Lakes to the Northeast, Sunday through Sunday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 221730
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
### SUMMARY
Strong thunderstorm activity posing at least some risk for severe hail and wind appears possible across parts of the northern Rockies and Great Plains, and across parts of the eastern Great Lakes to the Northeast, Sunday through Sunday night.
Synopsis
Upper ridging will prevail across the western CONUS as an upper trough slowly traverses the Northeast tomorrow (Sunday). A mid-level impulse will crest the upper ridge tomorrow afternoon across the northern Rockies while a small impulse embedded in the aforementioned upper trough overspreads the northern Appalachians. From the northern Rockies to northern High Plains, as well as parts of the Northeast, stronger flow above the boundary layer will promote adequate vertical wind shear, in tandem with buoyancy, to promote strong to severe thunderstorms. Elsewhere from the central Rockies to the Gulf/Carolina coastlines, strong surface heating amid pockets of low-level moisture will support scattered thunderstorm development, with an isolated severe storm possible.
Northern Rockies
By mid to late afternoon, a well-mixed boundary layer should develop beneath a plume of cooler temperatures aloft (e.g. 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates) with the passage of the aforementioned mid-level impulse. A belt of stronger mid- to -upper level westerly flow will also accompany this impulse, resulting in elongated hodographs and 30-40 kts of effective bulk (speed) shear coinciding with the steep low- and mid-level lapse rates. Multicells and transient supercells should develop, accompanied by a risk of severe gusts and perhaps an instance or two of hail. A gust over 75 mph is possible.
Northern High Plains into South Dakota
Convective evolution and morphology remains unclear in this region. Steep lapse rates will emanate from the northern Rockies and overspread a moistening warm sector (e.g. mid 60s F dewpoints), yielding 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE. Modestly curved and elongated hodographs suggest multicells and supercells as the main storm mode, at least initially. Severe gusts/hail would accompany these storms if they can become sustained. There is also some indication by the latest CAMS that storms may merge into a cold-pool-driven MCS, though guidance consensus is weak on this scenario. Nonetheless, any MCS development that does occur would support severe gusts, including a 75+ mph gust.
Portions of the eastern Great Basin to the central Rockies
A cluster of multicell storms should develop around the eastern Great Basin into the central Rockies by afternoon peak heating. Stronger flow aloft will glance the region to the north, atop a strongly mixed boundary layer. Forecast soundings show classic inverted-V profiles extending to 500 mb, with surface-500 mb lapse rates reaching at least 9 C/km. As such, severe gusts are possible with the stronger multicells that form.
Portions of the Northern Appalachians into New England
By afternoon, surface temperatures should warm well into the 70s F as earlier showers and thunderstorms make way for at least partly clearing skies. While not overly steep, mid-level lapse rates exceeding 6.5 C/km will result in marginal buoyancy, amid stronger flow aloft (yielding elongated hodographs). A couple instances of damaging gusts/hail will be possible with the stronger multicells that manage to sustain themselves.
Gulf to Carolina Coastlines
A heated and moist boundary layer should develop by afternoon given the presence of mid 70s F surface dewpoints and temperatures rising well into the 80s F. Such rich low-level moisture will support 2000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE from LA to extreme eastern NC despite mid-level lapse rates only reaching 6-6.5 C/km. Across the Gulf Coast, pulse-cellular storms are expected given weak flow aloft, with damaging gusts originated from wet downbursts the main threat. Along the Carolina Coastline, southwesterly mid-level flow will be a bit stronger given the upper trough glancing by to the north. Multicells capable of isolated severe gusts are possible. Locally higher severe probabilities may be needed in future Day 1 outlooks if greater storm coverage becomes apparent.
Portions of southern Arizona
Locally stronger southeasterly mid-level flow will pivot around the upper ridge and overspread a deep and dry boundary layer by late afternoon/early evening. Meanwhile, surface temperatures around 100 F, amid 60 F surface dewpoints and overspread by modestly cooler temperatures aloft, will yield 9+ C/km tropospheric lapse rates and over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Given the modest flow aloft and aforementioned buoyancy, a few organized multicells may occur, accompanied by an isolated severe gust threat.
..Squitieri.. 08/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Monday, August 24
Outlook Summary
Strong to severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are possible from the northern to central High Plains on Monday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 220651
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
### SUMMARY
Strong to severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are possible from the northern to central High Plains on Monday.
Central to the Northern Plains
The strong ridge which has been present for much of the last 3 weeks will continue across the southern Plains and the High Plains. However, the northern extent of this ridge will be flattened with a frontal zone extending from the northern Plains into the central High Plains. Moderate instability is forecast along this frontal zone where isolated to scattered storms are expected on Monday. The strongest shear is expected across North Dakota into Minnesota where a 40 knot jet streak will overspread the region. Isolated storms may form along the front in this region during the day, but the better signal for storms is during the evening when a mid-level shortwave trough approaches the region from southern Canada.
The greater diurnal storm coverage is anticipated in the Nebraska Panhandle and into southwest South Dakota. However, the weaker shear across this region may result in only marginally organized storms. Therefore, a few severe wind gusts are possible and thus the Marginal is warranted, but the relatively unorganized storm mode precludes higher severe weather probabilities at this time.
..Bentley.. 08/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Tuesday, August 25
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, August 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, August 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, August 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, August 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, August 29 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220742 SPC AC 220742
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
Overall, the long range pattern will feature a ridge centered over the southern High Plains which may shift slightly west through the period. Some severe weather may occur within the northwesterly flow pattern from the northern Plains to the Ohio Valley Tuesday/D4 to Thursday/D6, but confidence is not high enough for probabilities at this time. There is an emerging signal for a seasonably strong high pressure to build into the eastern CONUS and shunt most of the richer low-level moisture to the Gulf Coast states. If this occurs, a relative lull in severe weather potential would exist from the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast to the Upper Midwest into next weekend.
..Bentley.. 08/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, August 26
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, August 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, August 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, August 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, August 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, August 29 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220742 SPC AC 220742
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
Overall, the long range pattern will feature a ridge centered over the southern High Plains which may shift slightly west through the period. Some severe weather may occur within the northwesterly flow pattern from the northern Plains to the Ohio Valley Tuesday/D4 to Thursday/D6, but confidence is not high enough for probabilities at this time. There is an emerging signal for a seasonably strong high pressure to build into the eastern CONUS and shunt most of the richer low-level moisture to the Gulf Coast states. If this occurs, a relative lull in severe weather potential would exist from the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast to the Upper Midwest into next weekend.
..Bentley.. 08/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, August 27
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, August 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, August 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, August 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, August 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, August 29 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220742 SPC AC 220742
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
Overall, the long range pattern will feature a ridge centered over the southern High Plains which may shift slightly west through the period. Some severe weather may occur within the northwesterly flow pattern from the northern Plains to the Ohio Valley Tuesday/D4 to Thursday/D6, but confidence is not high enough for probabilities at this time. There is an emerging signal for a seasonably strong high pressure to build into the eastern CONUS and shunt most of the richer low-level moisture to the Gulf Coast states. If this occurs, a relative lull in severe weather potential would exist from the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast to the Upper Midwest into next weekend.
..Bentley.. 08/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, August 28
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, August 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, August 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, August 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, August 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, August 29 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220742 SPC AC 220742
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
Overall, the long range pattern will feature a ridge centered over the southern High Plains which may shift slightly west through the period. Some severe weather may occur within the northwesterly flow pattern from the northern Plains to the Ohio Valley Tuesday/D4 to Thursday/D6, but confidence is not high enough for probabilities at this time. There is an emerging signal for a seasonably strong high pressure to build into the eastern CONUS and shunt most of the richer low-level moisture to the Gulf Coast states. If this occurs, a relative lull in severe weather potential would exist from the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast to the Upper Midwest into next weekend.
..Bentley.. 08/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, August 29
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, August 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, August 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, August 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, August 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, August 29 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220742 SPC AC 220742
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
Overall, the long range pattern will feature a ridge centered over the southern High Plains which may shift slightly west through the period. Some severe weather may occur within the northwesterly flow pattern from the northern Plains to the Ohio Valley Tuesday/D4 to Thursday/D6, but confidence is not high enough for probabilities at this time. There is an emerging signal for a seasonably strong high pressure to build into the eastern CONUS and shunt most of the richer low-level moisture to the Gulf Coast states. If this occurs, a relative lull in severe weather potential would exist from the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast to the Upper Midwest into next weekend.
..Bentley.. 08/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, August 22
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Sunday, August 23
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Monday, August 24
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Tuesday, August 25
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, August 26
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, August 27
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, August 28
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, August 29
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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