Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Wednesday, July 29

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this afternoon and evening in the northern Plains. Severe wind gusts will also be possible across southern Georgia and northern Florida, as well as the Great Basin/northern Intermountain West.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 292000

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Valid 292000Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this afternoon and evening in the northern Plains. Severe wind gusts will also be possible across southern Georgia and northern Florida, as well as the Great Basin/northern Intermountain West.

20Z Update

The forecast appears to be on track, and minimal changes were needed with this update. Southward-spreading storm clusters in southern GA/northern FL will continue to pose a risk of damaging wind gusts through the afternoon into this evening. Any areas of upscale growth will pose the greatest severe-wind risk prior to the onset of nocturnal boundary-layer cooling. See Severe Thunderstorm Watch #532 for more information.

Farther west over the northern Plains, a persistent cluster of thunderstorms and related cloud coverage over eastern MT/western ND cast uncertainty on the overall severe risk. However, as a subtle/low-amplitude midlevel wave currently over central MT overspreads the area, the ongoing activity and additional storm development along differential heating zones could pose an increasing risk of severe wind gusts and isolated hail into this evening. See MCD #1797 for more details.

Additional thunderstorms forming along the high terrain from CO northward into eastern WY may also pose some risk of strong-severe wind gusts as storms move eastward into a warm/moist air mass over the High Plains. However, the severe-wind risk will be largely dependent on the development of robust cold pools and upscale growth, and weak forcing for ascent limits confidence in where this risk will be maximized.

..Weinman.. 07/29/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026/

GA/FL

Latest surface analysis shows a weak cold front sagging southward across GA. A very moist and unstable air mass is present along and south of the front, with dewpoints in the mid 70s and full heating expected. This will yield afternoon MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg and scattered thunderstorm development. Sufficient northwesterly mid-level flow of 15-25 knots will help storms propagate into north FL by early evening. Locally damaging wind gusts will be possible in the stronger cells due to water loading and some momentum transfer. If outflows can congeal, a more organized damaging wind risk could develop late this afternoon and early evening before weakening after dark.

MT/ND

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon along a weak surface boundary near the MT/ND border. These storms will be in a hot and moderately unstable air mass with MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg. As this activity spreads northeastward across western ND, the combination of a deep sub-cloud layer, steep low-level lapse rates, and sufficient flow aloft will pose the risk of damaging wind gusts.

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

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Outlook for Thursday, July 30

Outlook Summary

Widely scattered severe storms capable of mainly damaging wind gusts appear possible over south-central South Dakota into central Nebraska Thursday afternoon and evening. More sporadic occurrences of mainly damaging wind appear possible from the northern High Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley into the central Plains, the Raton Mesa vicinity, and the central and eastern Gulf Coast.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 291723

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA

### SUMMARY

Widely scattered severe storms capable of mainly damaging wind gusts appear possible over south-central South Dakota into central Nebraska Thursday afternoon and evening. More sporadic occurrences of mainly damaging wind appear possible from the northern High Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley into the central Plains, the Raton Mesa vicinity, and the central and eastern Gulf Coast.

Central to northern Plains

A midlevel wave is forecast to move across the northern Plains Thursday morning, with areas of thunderstorms likely ongoing from the Dakotas into eastern NE and KS. Aiding this activity will be theta-e advection out of the south, with the 850 mb gradient aligned roughly along the MO River. While some of the region will be locally stabilized by this activity, a corridor of strong heating/recovery will occur near the surface trough during the afternoon, with renewed activity over central SD into NE. Substantial storm coverage will likely lead to mergers and an eventual MCS moving southeastward into the evening. Sporadic hail may occur with the afternoon/initial cells before transitioning to mainly a damaging wind threat.

Southern AL/GA into northern FL

A surface trough will remain draped across southern GA and AL with mid 70s F dewpoints to the south. A weak northwest flow regime will also remain over the area as the upper trough over the Northeast slowly departs. Strong daytime heating will lead to substantial instability, with scattered storms developing along the boundary. Given the high PWAT and steep low-level lapse rates, some of the cells are expected to produce locally damaging gusts.

..Jewell.. 07/29/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Friday, July 31

Outlook Summary

At least isolated severe storms appear possible from Iowa southward into the Ozarks, and over the central and southern High Plains Friday afternoon and evening.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 291927

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL IOWA ACROSS MUCH OF MISSOURI AND INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS…AND OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS

### SUMMARY

At least isolated severe storms appear possible from Iowa southward into the Ozarks, and over the central and southern High Plains Friday afternoon and evening.

IA/MO/AR

A shortwave trough is forecast to develop out of the northern Plains and move southeastward toward the mid MS Valley Friday, with increasing midlevel northwesterlies to over 40 kt. At the surface, low pressure should develop from southern IA into northern MO during the day, moving into western IL by 12Z Saturday.

Upper 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints will be common ahead of an associated cold front which will extend roughly across southern IA and into central MO during the peak heating hours. While midlevel lapse rates will not be particularly steep, MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg is still forecast. Further, winds will veer with height, resulting in semi-favorable hodographs for supercells with deep layer shear over 30 kt.

Early day rain appears likely from southern MN into IA and MO as the initial warm/moist advection occurs, with diurnal storms expected along the front during the late afternoon. The stronger storms may produce hail, a brief tornado, or damaging wind gusts. Placement of such a narrow north/south risk area has inherent uncertainties this far out, but a corridor of greater severe probabilities could be required in later outlooks as predictability increases.

Eastern CO/NM

Northwest flow aloft on the order of 20-30 kt will exist over the High Plains on the backside of the shortwave trough to the northeast. Surface winds will veer to east/northeasterly by late afternoon as peak heating is attained. Dewpoints into the 50s F, steep low-level lapse rates and modest northwest flow aloft should yield a few cells capable of marginally severe hail or wind.

..Jewell.. 07/29/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Saturday, August 1

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290839 SPC AC 290839

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Saturday

A short-wave trough will progress from the mid MS into lower OH Valleys with modest height falls forecast across the Gulf Coast states. At the surface, an area of low pressure will follow the same track as the upper-air system, while a trailing cold front advances through the lower MS and TN Valleys. While weaker than on Friday, a modest enhancement of 850-mb winds is forecast during the afternoon ahead of the surface low over the OH and TN Valleys.

Morning storms appear possible from the lower OH into lower MS Valleys within a zone of warm advection associated with a nocturnal low-level jet. The longevity and extent of early-day storms remain uncertain, but where stronger heating can occur, the presence of boundary-layer dewpoints in the 70s will contribute to pockets of moderate instability. Additional storms are anticipated during the afternoon, focused along the cold front and any residual outflow boundaries from previous storms. Deep-layer shear is expected to remain generally less than 30 kt, which will tend to limit the potential for organized storm modes. A possible exception is across parts of KY and TN where slightly stronger low-level shear could contribute to updraft rotation and some tornado risk. Otherwise, locally damaging wind gusts appear to be the primary hazard.

Isolated severe storms capable of mainly damaging winds and hail appear possible over the southern High Plains Saturday afternoon and evening within a moist and unstable upslope regime.

### Days 5 and 6/Sunday and Monday

The models remain in relatively good agreement in depicting a strong short-wave trough and attending belt of mid-level flow progressing along the international border from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. Low-level ridging from the Great Lakes into southern Plains may disrupt the return of robust boundary-layer moisture ahead of a cold front moving through the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley. Nonetheless, the presence of steep lapse rates and strengthening vertical shear along the frontal zone will support some severe weather risk over the northern Plains on Sunday and the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley on Monday.

An isolated severe storm threat may also develop along the East Coast on Sunday, ahead of a positively tilted trough moving through the Great Lakes and OH and TN Valley.

### Days 7 and 8/Tuesday and Wednesday

The 00Z ensemble means indicate a belt of modestly enhanced mid-level flow from the northern Rockies into the Great Lakes, between a trough over Hudson Bay and a flattened ridge across the Southwest. Some severe weather threat may materialize over the central High Plains along and to the north of a stalled front, and perhaps in AZ if stronger easterly flow can develop on the south side of the upper high.

..Mead.. 07/29/2026

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Outlook for Sunday, August 2

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290839 SPC AC 290839

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Saturday

A short-wave trough will progress from the mid MS into lower OH Valleys with modest height falls forecast across the Gulf Coast states. At the surface, an area of low pressure will follow the same track as the upper-air system, while a trailing cold front advances through the lower MS and TN Valleys. While weaker than on Friday, a modest enhancement of 850-mb winds is forecast during the afternoon ahead of the surface low over the OH and TN Valleys.

Morning storms appear possible from the lower OH into lower MS Valleys within a zone of warm advection associated with a nocturnal low-level jet. The longevity and extent of early-day storms remain uncertain, but where stronger heating can occur, the presence of boundary-layer dewpoints in the 70s will contribute to pockets of moderate instability. Additional storms are anticipated during the afternoon, focused along the cold front and any residual outflow boundaries from previous storms. Deep-layer shear is expected to remain generally less than 30 kt, which will tend to limit the potential for organized storm modes. A possible exception is across parts of KY and TN where slightly stronger low-level shear could contribute to updraft rotation and some tornado risk. Otherwise, locally damaging wind gusts appear to be the primary hazard.

Isolated severe storms capable of mainly damaging winds and hail appear possible over the southern High Plains Saturday afternoon and evening within a moist and unstable upslope regime.

### Days 5 and 6/Sunday and Monday

The models remain in relatively good agreement in depicting a strong short-wave trough and attending belt of mid-level flow progressing along the international border from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. Low-level ridging from the Great Lakes into southern Plains may disrupt the return of robust boundary-layer moisture ahead of a cold front moving through the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley. Nonetheless, the presence of steep lapse rates and strengthening vertical shear along the frontal zone will support some severe weather risk over the northern Plains on Sunday and the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley on Monday.

An isolated severe storm threat may also develop along the East Coast on Sunday, ahead of a positively tilted trough moving through the Great Lakes and OH and TN Valley.

### Days 7 and 8/Tuesday and Wednesday

The 00Z ensemble means indicate a belt of modestly enhanced mid-level flow from the northern Rockies into the Great Lakes, between a trough over Hudson Bay and a flattened ridge across the Southwest. Some severe weather threat may materialize over the central High Plains along and to the north of a stalled front, and perhaps in AZ if stronger easterly flow can develop on the south side of the upper high.

..Mead.. 07/29/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, August 3

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290839 SPC AC 290839

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Saturday

A short-wave trough will progress from the mid MS into lower OH Valleys with modest height falls forecast across the Gulf Coast states. At the surface, an area of low pressure will follow the same track as the upper-air system, while a trailing cold front advances through the lower MS and TN Valleys. While weaker than on Friday, a modest enhancement of 850-mb winds is forecast during the afternoon ahead of the surface low over the OH and TN Valleys.

Morning storms appear possible from the lower OH into lower MS Valleys within a zone of warm advection associated with a nocturnal low-level jet. The longevity and extent of early-day storms remain uncertain, but where stronger heating can occur, the presence of boundary-layer dewpoints in the 70s will contribute to pockets of moderate instability. Additional storms are anticipated during the afternoon, focused along the cold front and any residual outflow boundaries from previous storms. Deep-layer shear is expected to remain generally less than 30 kt, which will tend to limit the potential for organized storm modes. A possible exception is across parts of KY and TN where slightly stronger low-level shear could contribute to updraft rotation and some tornado risk. Otherwise, locally damaging wind gusts appear to be the primary hazard.

Isolated severe storms capable of mainly damaging winds and hail appear possible over the southern High Plains Saturday afternoon and evening within a moist and unstable upslope regime.

### Days 5 and 6/Sunday and Monday

The models remain in relatively good agreement in depicting a strong short-wave trough and attending belt of mid-level flow progressing along the international border from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. Low-level ridging from the Great Lakes into southern Plains may disrupt the return of robust boundary-layer moisture ahead of a cold front moving through the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley. Nonetheless, the presence of steep lapse rates and strengthening vertical shear along the frontal zone will support some severe weather risk over the northern Plains on Sunday and the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley on Monday.

An isolated severe storm threat may also develop along the East Coast on Sunday, ahead of a positively tilted trough moving through the Great Lakes and OH and TN Valley.

### Days 7 and 8/Tuesday and Wednesday

The 00Z ensemble means indicate a belt of modestly enhanced mid-level flow from the northern Rockies into the Great Lakes, between a trough over Hudson Bay and a flattened ridge across the Southwest. Some severe weather threat may materialize over the central High Plains along and to the north of a stalled front, and perhaps in AZ if stronger easterly flow can develop on the south side of the upper high.

..Mead.. 07/29/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, August 4

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290839 SPC AC 290839

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Saturday

A short-wave trough will progress from the mid MS into lower OH Valleys with modest height falls forecast across the Gulf Coast states. At the surface, an area of low pressure will follow the same track as the upper-air system, while a trailing cold front advances through the lower MS and TN Valleys. While weaker than on Friday, a modest enhancement of 850-mb winds is forecast during the afternoon ahead of the surface low over the OH and TN Valleys.

Morning storms appear possible from the lower OH into lower MS Valleys within a zone of warm advection associated with a nocturnal low-level jet. The longevity and extent of early-day storms remain uncertain, but where stronger heating can occur, the presence of boundary-layer dewpoints in the 70s will contribute to pockets of moderate instability. Additional storms are anticipated during the afternoon, focused along the cold front and any residual outflow boundaries from previous storms. Deep-layer shear is expected to remain generally less than 30 kt, which will tend to limit the potential for organized storm modes. A possible exception is across parts of KY and TN where slightly stronger low-level shear could contribute to updraft rotation and some tornado risk. Otherwise, locally damaging wind gusts appear to be the primary hazard.

Isolated severe storms capable of mainly damaging winds and hail appear possible over the southern High Plains Saturday afternoon and evening within a moist and unstable upslope regime.

### Days 5 and 6/Sunday and Monday

The models remain in relatively good agreement in depicting a strong short-wave trough and attending belt of mid-level flow progressing along the international border from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. Low-level ridging from the Great Lakes into southern Plains may disrupt the return of robust boundary-layer moisture ahead of a cold front moving through the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley. Nonetheless, the presence of steep lapse rates and strengthening vertical shear along the frontal zone will support some severe weather risk over the northern Plains on Sunday and the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley on Monday.

An isolated severe storm threat may also develop along the East Coast on Sunday, ahead of a positively tilted trough moving through the Great Lakes and OH and TN Valley.

### Days 7 and 8/Tuesday and Wednesday

The 00Z ensemble means indicate a belt of modestly enhanced mid-level flow from the northern Rockies into the Great Lakes, between a trough over Hudson Bay and a flattened ridge across the Southwest. Some severe weather threat may materialize over the central High Plains along and to the north of a stalled front, and perhaps in AZ if stronger easterly flow can develop on the south side of the upper high.

..Mead.. 07/29/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, August 5

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290839 SPC AC 290839

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Saturday

A short-wave trough will progress from the mid MS into lower OH Valleys with modest height falls forecast across the Gulf Coast states. At the surface, an area of low pressure will follow the same track as the upper-air system, while a trailing cold front advances through the lower MS and TN Valleys. While weaker than on Friday, a modest enhancement of 850-mb winds is forecast during the afternoon ahead of the surface low over the OH and TN Valleys.

Morning storms appear possible from the lower OH into lower MS Valleys within a zone of warm advection associated with a nocturnal low-level jet. The longevity and extent of early-day storms remain uncertain, but where stronger heating can occur, the presence of boundary-layer dewpoints in the 70s will contribute to pockets of moderate instability. Additional storms are anticipated during the afternoon, focused along the cold front and any residual outflow boundaries from previous storms. Deep-layer shear is expected to remain generally less than 30 kt, which will tend to limit the potential for organized storm modes. A possible exception is across parts of KY and TN where slightly stronger low-level shear could contribute to updraft rotation and some tornado risk. Otherwise, locally damaging wind gusts appear to be the primary hazard.

Isolated severe storms capable of mainly damaging winds and hail appear possible over the southern High Plains Saturday afternoon and evening within a moist and unstable upslope regime.

### Days 5 and 6/Sunday and Monday

The models remain in relatively good agreement in depicting a strong short-wave trough and attending belt of mid-level flow progressing along the international border from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. Low-level ridging from the Great Lakes into southern Plains may disrupt the return of robust boundary-layer moisture ahead of a cold front moving through the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley. Nonetheless, the presence of steep lapse rates and strengthening vertical shear along the frontal zone will support some severe weather risk over the northern Plains on Sunday and the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley on Monday.

An isolated severe storm threat may also develop along the East Coast on Sunday, ahead of a positively tilted trough moving through the Great Lakes and OH and TN Valley.

### Days 7 and 8/Tuesday and Wednesday

The 00Z ensemble means indicate a belt of modestly enhanced mid-level flow from the northern Rockies into the Great Lakes, between a trough over Hudson Bay and a flattened ridge across the Southwest. Some severe weather threat may materialize over the central High Plains along and to the north of a stalled front, and perhaps in AZ if stronger easterly flow can develop on the south side of the upper high.

..Mead.. 07/29/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Wednesday, July 29

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 15%

Thursday, July 30

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 15%

Friday, July 31

ANY SEVERE: 5%

Saturday, August 1

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Sunday, August 2

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Monday, August 3

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Tuesday, August 4

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Wednesday, August 5

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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