Severe Weather Outlook
Hayley here
- Do you like
lofi music
whatever music Hayley put on
and terrifyingly loud computer voices? Then stop by the 24/7 ish severe weather live stream!
* stats delayed and were probably not accurate to begin with
National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, November 21
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible today and tonight across parts of Mississippi and Tennessee into western and northern Alabama and possibly southern Kentucky.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 211942
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025
Valid 212000Z - 221200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MS/AL/TN/KY
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible today and tonight across parts of Mississippi and Tennessee into western and northern Alabama and possibly southern Kentucky.
20Z Update
The Marginal Risk was trimmed slightly in northern/central MS, where a combination of relatively weaker large-scale forcing for ascent and poor deep-layer lapse rates/modest buoyancy (see SHV 18Z sounding) should limit the severe-risk compared to areas farther north tonight. Elsewhere, widely scattered thunderstorms are evolving along a southeastward-moving cold front in southeast TX. PBL destabilization ahead of the front has yielded moderate surface-based buoyancy (per CRP 18Z sounding). While several warm layers aloft and modest deep-layer shear (around 30 kt of effective shear) should limit updraft intensity, a strong storm or two capable of producing gusty winds cannot be entirely ruled out into this evening.
..Weinman.. 11/21/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025/
MS/AL/TN/KY
A strengthening of deep-layer flow will occur regionally in tandem with the eastward progression of a low-amplitude shortwave trough from the Lower Missouri Valley toward the Lower Ohio River Valley tonight, with height falls remaining limited south of the Tennessee Valley.
The more organized/sustained scattered thunderstorms this afternoon will probably remain focused within the warm conveyor from south-central Mississippi into Alabama. On the south-southwest periphery of these storms, there will be a gradual northeastward expansion of the effective warm sector while destabilization will still remain weaker with eastward extent. Mid-level lapse rates are weak, suggesting most updrafts will struggle to intensify. However, strong deep-layer shear and moderately strong low-level shear/SRH, particularly within the aforementioned corridor, could support a couple of rotating storms capable of a tornado or damaging wind.
The primary surface cold front will move into this region tonight, with another round of showers and thunderstorms expected to uptick this evening across the Mid-South including western Tennessee and northern Mississippi. Low-level winds are expected to veer by this time, reducing low-level shear/SRH. Nevertheless, a low risk of a tornado and/or gusty winds will exist.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Saturday, November 22
Outlook Summary
Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Southwest into the southern Plains and Southeast tomorrow (Saturday), though severe thunderstorm potential appears low.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 211727
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Southwest into the southern Plains and Southeast tomorrow (Saturday), though severe thunderstorm potential appears low.
Synopsis
A broad mid-level trough, with multiple embedded impulses, will progress across the eastern U.S. as upper ridging builds over the Plains, and an upper low overspreads the Southwest tomorrow (Saturday). With the evolution of this upper pattern, surface high pressure and accompanying cooler, stable air will overspread most of the central and northern CONUS, limiting thunderstorm potential. From southeast TX to the coastal Carolinas, widely scattered thunderstorm development is possible ahead of a surface cold front, which will be ushered southeast by the aforementioned mid-level trough, toward a seasonably moist low-level airmass. Thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of the Desert Southwest into western TX, beneath the progression of the upper low, which may evolve into an upper wave through Saturday. Cooler temperatures aloft will promote buoyancy (albeit scant) for thunderstorm development.
Southeast VA into central and eastern NC
In roughly the 18-00Z period, isolated to widespread scattered thunderstorm development is possible ahead of the cold front, aided further by upper support with an overspreading embedded mid-level impulse. Overlapping 60-70 kt 500 mb westerly flow atop 25+ kt west-southwesterly 850 mb winds will yield elongated, straight hodographs and 40+ kts of effective bulk shear. Through the day, diurnal heating will support upper 60s/mid 70s F surface temperatures amid 60+ F dewpoints. These low-level thermodynamic conditions should yield around 500 J/kg MLCAPE via tall/thin buoyancy profiles given modest tropospheric lapse rates. While gusty conditions and perhaps some hail may accompany the stronger storms, organized severe wind/hail seems unlikely, with severe probabilities withheld for now.
Southern and central AZ into southwestern NM
A nearly vertically stacked upper low (from roughly 850 mb on up) will overspread AZ and NM through the period. A belt of stronger, mostly unidirectional flow in the 850-500 mb layer will pivot around the low and overspread portions of southern into central AZ and southwestern NM in the 00-12Z time frame. This flow, resulting in elongated hodographs (and 35-45 kts of effective bulk shear) will coincide with 7.5-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, supporting multicells capable of at least small hail. Since these favorable conditions will be overspreading an overnight (potentially stable) boundary layer, MUCAPE should be thin, and only reach a few hundred J/kg. As such, the current thinking is that buoyancy may be too limited to support severe probabilities.
..Squitieri.. 11/21/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Sunday, November 23
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of northern Texas to the Rio Grande on Sunday. Large hail is the primary threat.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 211928
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of northern Texas to the Rio Grande on Sunday. Large hail is the primary threat.
Synopsis
A progressive upper pattern will prevail over the CONUS on Day 3/Sunday as multiple mid-level troughs progress across the Northeast, the Plains states, and the Pacific Northwest, respectively. At the surface, high pressure and static stability will become established east of the MS River to the East Coast, and over much of the Interior West, limiting thunderstorm potential over these regions. However, the amplification of the central U.S. mid-level trough will encourage surface lee troughing and subsequent southerly moisture return across portions of the central and southern Plains, where isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely. Strong flow aloft over TX will overspread a moist axis, where adequate coinciding buoyancy and vertical wind shear will support an isolated severe threat. Otherwise, a few lightning flashes are possible along the Pacific Northwest coastline with the passage of a mid-level trough and accompanying cooler temperatures aloft.
Portions of southwestern into central TX
As the mid-level trough overspreads TX through the period, a southerly low-level jet will develop, particularly after 00Z, when 850 mb southerly flow will exceed 35 kts. A relatively stable boundary layer will remain in place Sunday through Sunday night. However, atop this layer, seasonably rich moisture around 850 mb, beneath 6.5-7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, will yield 1000-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE, which is adequate for supporting strong but elevated thunderstorms. From late afternoon into the overnight hours, increased isentropic lift above the stable boundary layer, driven by the approaching mid-level trough, will promote an increase in thunderstorms through the evening over western and central TX. The southerly 35 kt low-level jet, overspread by 50-70 kt mid-level southwesterlies from the upper trough, will yield elongated hodographs and up to 50 kts of effective bulk shear. This shear, and aforementioned MUCAPE, will support the potential for elevated supercells late Sunday afternoon and overnight, with severe hail possible.
..Squitieri.. 11/21/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Monday, November 24
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, November 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, November 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, November 26 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, November 27 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, November 28 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210951 SPC AC 210951
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
As a mid-level trough deamplifies and moves from the central Plains to the Midwest on D4/Monday, low-level moisture will advect northward across eastern Texas, Louisiana, and southern Arkansas. Some filtered heating should result in moderate instability by early afternoon with moderate to strong shear. Morning thunderstorms will likely have a stabilizing effect on the northern extent, but south of this activity, a relatively more favorable zone for supercells may exist on Monday afternoon. Relatively weak lapse rates are the primary limiting factor to severe weather probabilities at this time.
On D5/Tuesday, the surface front will stall across Louisiana and Mississippi with weak to moderate instability to its south. Forcing will remain somewhat nebulous, but given persistent moderate shear, a few stronger storms will be possible from eastern Louisiana to northern Alabama.
D6/Wednesday and beyond will feature a strong area of high pressure across much of the eastern CONUS. This will push 60F dewpoints into the Gulf/Atlantic and bring an end to any severe weather threat and potentially any thunderstorm threat east of the Rockies for the remainder of the week.
..Bentley.. 11/21/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, November 25
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, November 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, November 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, November 26 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, November 27 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, November 28 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210951 SPC AC 210951
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
As a mid-level trough deamplifies and moves from the central Plains to the Midwest on D4/Monday, low-level moisture will advect northward across eastern Texas, Louisiana, and southern Arkansas. Some filtered heating should result in moderate instability by early afternoon with moderate to strong shear. Morning thunderstorms will likely have a stabilizing effect on the northern extent, but south of this activity, a relatively more favorable zone for supercells may exist on Monday afternoon. Relatively weak lapse rates are the primary limiting factor to severe weather probabilities at this time.
On D5/Tuesday, the surface front will stall across Louisiana and Mississippi with weak to moderate instability to its south. Forcing will remain somewhat nebulous, but given persistent moderate shear, a few stronger storms will be possible from eastern Louisiana to northern Alabama.
D6/Wednesday and beyond will feature a strong area of high pressure across much of the eastern CONUS. This will push 60F dewpoints into the Gulf/Atlantic and bring an end to any severe weather threat and potentially any thunderstorm threat east of the Rockies for the remainder of the week.
..Bentley.. 11/21/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, November 26
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, November 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, November 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, November 26 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, November 27 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, November 28 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210951 SPC AC 210951
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
As a mid-level trough deamplifies and moves from the central Plains to the Midwest on D4/Monday, low-level moisture will advect northward across eastern Texas, Louisiana, and southern Arkansas. Some filtered heating should result in moderate instability by early afternoon with moderate to strong shear. Morning thunderstorms will likely have a stabilizing effect on the northern extent, but south of this activity, a relatively more favorable zone for supercells may exist on Monday afternoon. Relatively weak lapse rates are the primary limiting factor to severe weather probabilities at this time.
On D5/Tuesday, the surface front will stall across Louisiana and Mississippi with weak to moderate instability to its south. Forcing will remain somewhat nebulous, but given persistent moderate shear, a few stronger storms will be possible from eastern Louisiana to northern Alabama.
D6/Wednesday and beyond will feature a strong area of high pressure across much of the eastern CONUS. This will push 60F dewpoints into the Gulf/Atlantic and bring an end to any severe weather threat and potentially any thunderstorm threat east of the Rockies for the remainder of the week.
..Bentley.. 11/21/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, November 27
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, November 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, November 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, November 26 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, November 27 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, November 28 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210951 SPC AC 210951
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
As a mid-level trough deamplifies and moves from the central Plains to the Midwest on D4/Monday, low-level moisture will advect northward across eastern Texas, Louisiana, and southern Arkansas. Some filtered heating should result in moderate instability by early afternoon with moderate to strong shear. Morning thunderstorms will likely have a stabilizing effect on the northern extent, but south of this activity, a relatively more favorable zone for supercells may exist on Monday afternoon. Relatively weak lapse rates are the primary limiting factor to severe weather probabilities at this time.
On D5/Tuesday, the surface front will stall across Louisiana and Mississippi with weak to moderate instability to its south. Forcing will remain somewhat nebulous, but given persistent moderate shear, a few stronger storms will be possible from eastern Louisiana to northern Alabama.
D6/Wednesday and beyond will feature a strong area of high pressure across much of the eastern CONUS. This will push 60F dewpoints into the Gulf/Atlantic and bring an end to any severe weather threat and potentially any thunderstorm threat east of the Rockies for the remainder of the week.
..Bentley.. 11/21/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, November 28
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, November 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, November 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, November 26 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, November 27 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, November 28 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210951 SPC AC 210951
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
As a mid-level trough deamplifies and moves from the central Plains to the Midwest on D4/Monday, low-level moisture will advect northward across eastern Texas, Louisiana, and southern Arkansas. Some filtered heating should result in moderate instability by early afternoon with moderate to strong shear. Morning thunderstorms will likely have a stabilizing effect on the northern extent, but south of this activity, a relatively more favorable zone for supercells may exist on Monday afternoon. Relatively weak lapse rates are the primary limiting factor to severe weather probabilities at this time.
On D5/Tuesday, the surface front will stall across Louisiana and Mississippi with weak to moderate instability to its south. Forcing will remain somewhat nebulous, but given persistent moderate shear, a few stronger storms will be possible from eastern Louisiana to northern Alabama.
D6/Wednesday and beyond will feature a strong area of high pressure across much of the eastern CONUS. This will push 60F dewpoints into the Gulf/Atlantic and bring an end to any severe weather threat and potentially any thunderstorm threat east of the Rockies for the remainder of the week.
..Bentley.. 11/21/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, November 21
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Saturday, November 22
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Sunday, November 23
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Monday, November 24
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, November 25
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, November 26
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, November 27
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, November 28
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Your Severe Outlook
Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.
Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.
Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.
About Severe Weather Outlook . com
SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.
- tornado hq - live severe weather warnings
- cyclocane - hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones
- tornado solitaire - play cards while you monitor the US severe weather threat
- tertremo - live view of earthquakes around the world
- earthquake solitaire - get live earthquake updates as you play your favorite card game