Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, August 25
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe storms are likely across the central/southern Plains this afternoon and evening, and also possible across portions of the upper Mississippi Valley. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the primary hazards.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 250557
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe storms are likely across the central/southern Plains this afternoon and evening, and also possible across portions of the upper Mississippi Valley. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the primary hazards.
Central/southern Plains
The region will be influenced by a modest amplification of the large-scale pattern with a resultant increase in northwesterly flow aloft by late today into tonight, while a front progresses southeastward across the central High Plains. The front, as it intercepts a moist and moderate to strongly unstable boundary layer, will influence increasing thunderstorm development by mid/late afternoon, with an orographically influenced increase in thunderstorms also occurring along the Raton Mesa/Front Range.
Influenced by the strengthening northwesterlies aloft, effective shear across Nebraska and western Kansas will generally at least be 35-40 kt. On the eastern periphery of a stout elevated mixed layer, this will support some initial supercells capable of large hail, most probable across western/southern Nebraska into northern/possibly western Kansas.
Influenced by the front and aggregating outflow, one or more southeastward-moving clusters capable of wind damage will likely evolve by evening across southern Nebraska and Kansas. While winds aloft will not be as strong, a similar upscale-growing quasi-linear trend will probably also occur with high-based storms from the Raton Mesa vicinity into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, and perhaps nearby Oklahoma, with severe-caliber wind gust potential spreading east-southeastward through the evening.
Eastern Minnesota/western Wisconsin/western upper Michigan
A shortwave trough (and related mid/high-level speed max) will dig southeastward over southern Manitoba toward northern Minnesota and Lake Superior tonight. While residual early day convection and cloud cover may curb destabilization for a time, and keep the warm sector somewhat narrow, strong to severe thunderstorm development should occur near the eastward-advancing front by around mid/late afternoon. 60s F dewpoints will contribute to a zone of 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE across the eastern half of Minnesota/far northwest Wisconsin by peak heating. Some supercells will be possible aside from more prevalent multicells/small clusters. Large hail and damaging winds are expected to be the primary hazards, at least on a widely scattered basis.
Coastal Southeast/middle Gulf Coast
A moist/unstable environment will be favorable for isolated pulse-type severe thunderstorms capable of water-loaded downdrafts and wind damage, particularly during mid/late afternoon through around sunset. This currently appears most probable across coastal South Carolina, southern Georgia and northern Florida, although some strong thunderstorm wind potential might also exist across the middle Gulf Coast such as southern Louisiana.
..Guyer/Weinman.. 08/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Wednesday, August 26
Outlook Summary
Isolated to widely scattered severe storms are expected across parts of the central and southern High Plains, Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley, and parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley. Damaging/severe gusts are the main threat across these regions.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 250556
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES
### SUMMARY
Isolated to widely scattered severe storms are expected across parts of the central and southern High Plains, Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley, and parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley. Damaging/severe gusts are the main threat across these regions.
Central High Plains
Upslope flow across the central High Plains will lead to moderate to strong instability across much of eastern Colorado by Wednesday afternoon. Strong heating and orographic ascent will result in scattered storm development by late afternoon. Moderate northwesterly flow aloft should result in 30 to 35 knots of effective shear, sufficient for some supercell development. Large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible with this storm activity. The Slight Risk area is focused where the best combination of shear and instability is expected. Farther north across Wyoming flow should be stronger, but most guidance shows weaker instability. Moderate to strong instability should extend into eastern New Mexico. However, mid-level flow will be weaker and therefore, storm organization is less certain.
Great Lakes
A surface low will traverse northern Ontario on Wednesday with a cold front extending southward into the western Great Lakes. Mid-60s dewpoints are forecast to advect northward ahead of this cold front which will lead to moderate to potentially strong instability. Moderate mid-level northwesterly flow normal to the front should provide sufficient shear and storm motion for a supercellular storm mode. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat, however, some tornado threat may also exist. Low-level hodographs are small, but do show modest directional shear. This low-level shear combined with a supercell storm mode may result in a tornado or two.
Lower MS Valley
Several MCVs from Day 1/Tuesday convection may exist at 12Z Wednesday across portions of the central Plains. As these features move southeast toward the moist and unstable airmass across the Ozarks and into the Lower Mississippi Valley, scattered thunderstorm development is likely. Relatively weak deep-layer flow may keep storm mode relatively unorganized. However, the moist airmass and moderate to strong instability, combined with one or more MCVs as a forcing mechanism should combine for some damaging wind threat from water-loaded downdrafts Wednesday afternoon/evening.
..Bentley.. 08/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Thursday, August 27
Outlook Summary
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central High Plains and the Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 250734
Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEAST
### SUMMARY
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central High Plains and the Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast.
Northeast
A broad mid-level trough will continue to shift eastward toward the Northeast on Thursday. A weak surface low will move across Quebec with a cold front extending southward into the Northeast and eastern Great Lakes. Moderate instability is forecast ahead of the front with broad ascent supporting storm development both along and ahead of the cold front. Multicell clusters capable of damaging winds, and perhaps isolated large hail, are expected. A more focused region of greater potential may exist from central Pennsylvania into eastern New York. The potential for cloud cover across the region casts some uncertainty and therefore, confidence was not high enough for a Slight Risk at this time.
Central High Plains
Isolated to scattered storms are expected within an upslope flow regime from eastern Colorado into western Nebraska and southwest South Dakota on Thursday afternoon/evening. Forecast soundings show moderate instability with 30 to 35 knots of northwesterly effective shear. This could support some supercell potential including some 2+ inch hail and 75+ mph wind gusts. Isolated storm coverage remains the primary limiting factor to greater severe weather probabilities at this time.
Lower MS Valley
Moderate to strong instability is expected across the Lower MS Valley on Thursday. Shear will be weak, but there is some potential for a more focused cluster of storms to develop, perhaps associated with a remnant MCV from Day2/Wed convection across Arkansas. If a more organized cluster develops, the moist environment and moderate to strong instability may support some damaging wind gusts. Given uncertainties about the location and intensity of Day 1 and Day 2 convection, confidence is not high enough to add severe weather probabilities at this time.
..Bentley.. 08/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Friday, August 28
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, August 27 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Friday, August 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, August 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, August 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, August 31 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240859 SPC AC 240859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
A strong mid-level ridge will be centered over the Rockies on Thursday with a broad trough centered across the Great Lakes. The ridge will break down over the weekend with a more zonal flow with embedded shortwave troughs extending from the Northwest to the northern Plains and into the Northeast. Beyond this weekend, guidance differs on the evolution of the pattern with considerable uncertainty.
D7/Sunday to D8/Monday - Northern Plains
Guidance continues to consolidate around an unseasonably strong mid-level shortwave trough across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday and Monday. There is still some spread around the timing of this trough and also the degree of destabilization ahead of it. However, despite these timing differences, a moderately strong signal for an increasing severe weather threat in this period appears to be emerging as a trough with a consistent convective signal is shown by the ECMWF and GFS and also by the AI-GFS and AI-ECMWF. Ensemble guidance shows a flattened ridge with a mid-level jet streak across this region during the same timeframe. Surprisingly, AI/ML guidance shows very little signal for a severe threat across this region. Analysis of individual ensemble members suggests this is likely reflective of the uncertainty in timing and location of this trough and greater spread among the ensemble guidance. Nonetheless, the potential for an organized severe weather threat across the northern Plains and/or Upper Midwest late this weekend into early next week appears to be increasing. If guidance continues to consolidate with decreasing spread about the timing of the trough, severe weather probabilities may eventually be needed.
..Bentley.. 08/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, August 29
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, August 27 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Friday, August 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, August 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, August 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, August 31 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240859 SPC AC 240859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
A strong mid-level ridge will be centered over the Rockies on Thursday with a broad trough centered across the Great Lakes. The ridge will break down over the weekend with a more zonal flow with embedded shortwave troughs extending from the Northwest to the northern Plains and into the Northeast. Beyond this weekend, guidance differs on the evolution of the pattern with considerable uncertainty.
D7/Sunday to D8/Monday - Northern Plains
Guidance continues to consolidate around an unseasonably strong mid-level shortwave trough across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday and Monday. There is still some spread around the timing of this trough and also the degree of destabilization ahead of it. However, despite these timing differences, a moderately strong signal for an increasing severe weather threat in this period appears to be emerging as a trough with a consistent convective signal is shown by the ECMWF and GFS and also by the AI-GFS and AI-ECMWF. Ensemble guidance shows a flattened ridge with a mid-level jet streak across this region during the same timeframe. Surprisingly, AI/ML guidance shows very little signal for a severe threat across this region. Analysis of individual ensemble members suggests this is likely reflective of the uncertainty in timing and location of this trough and greater spread among the ensemble guidance. Nonetheless, the potential for an organized severe weather threat across the northern Plains and/or Upper Midwest late this weekend into early next week appears to be increasing. If guidance continues to consolidate with decreasing spread about the timing of the trough, severe weather probabilities may eventually be needed.
..Bentley.. 08/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, August 30
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, August 27 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Friday, August 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, August 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, August 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, August 31 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240859 SPC AC 240859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
A strong mid-level ridge will be centered over the Rockies on Thursday with a broad trough centered across the Great Lakes. The ridge will break down over the weekend with a more zonal flow with embedded shortwave troughs extending from the Northwest to the northern Plains and into the Northeast. Beyond this weekend, guidance differs on the evolution of the pattern with considerable uncertainty.
D7/Sunday to D8/Monday - Northern Plains
Guidance continues to consolidate around an unseasonably strong mid-level shortwave trough across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday and Monday. There is still some spread around the timing of this trough and also the degree of destabilization ahead of it. However, despite these timing differences, a moderately strong signal for an increasing severe weather threat in this period appears to be emerging as a trough with a consistent convective signal is shown by the ECMWF and GFS and also by the AI-GFS and AI-ECMWF. Ensemble guidance shows a flattened ridge with a mid-level jet streak across this region during the same timeframe. Surprisingly, AI/ML guidance shows very little signal for a severe threat across this region. Analysis of individual ensemble members suggests this is likely reflective of the uncertainty in timing and location of this trough and greater spread among the ensemble guidance. Nonetheless, the potential for an organized severe weather threat across the northern Plains and/or Upper Midwest late this weekend into early next week appears to be increasing. If guidance continues to consolidate with decreasing spread about the timing of the trough, severe weather probabilities may eventually be needed.
..Bentley.. 08/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, August 31
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, August 27 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Friday, August 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, August 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, August 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, August 31 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240859 SPC AC 240859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
A strong mid-level ridge will be centered over the Rockies on Thursday with a broad trough centered across the Great Lakes. The ridge will break down over the weekend with a more zonal flow with embedded shortwave troughs extending from the Northwest to the northern Plains and into the Northeast. Beyond this weekend, guidance differs on the evolution of the pattern with considerable uncertainty.
D7/Sunday to D8/Monday - Northern Plains
Guidance continues to consolidate around an unseasonably strong mid-level shortwave trough across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday and Monday. There is still some spread around the timing of this trough and also the degree of destabilization ahead of it. However, despite these timing differences, a moderately strong signal for an increasing severe weather threat in this period appears to be emerging as a trough with a consistent convective signal is shown by the ECMWF and GFS and also by the AI-GFS and AI-ECMWF. Ensemble guidance shows a flattened ridge with a mid-level jet streak across this region during the same timeframe. Surprisingly, AI/ML guidance shows very little signal for a severe threat across this region. Analysis of individual ensemble members suggests this is likely reflective of the uncertainty in timing and location of this trough and greater spread among the ensemble guidance. Nonetheless, the potential for an organized severe weather threat across the northern Plains and/or Upper Midwest late this weekend into early next week appears to be increasing. If guidance continues to consolidate with decreasing spread about the timing of the trough, severe weather probabilities may eventually be needed.
..Bentley.. 08/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, August 25
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Wednesday, August 26
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Thursday, August 27
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Friday, August 28
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, August 29
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, August 30
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, August 31
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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