Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Tuesday, March 31

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and large hail are expected today from the Mid Mississippi Valley across the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and damaging gusts are possible across western Oklahoma and far northwest Texas as well.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 311236

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Valid 311300Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES…AND ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST TEXAS

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and large hail are expected today from the Mid Mississippi Valley across the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and damaging gusts are possible across western Oklahoma and far northwest Texas as well.

Synopsis

Upper pattern is forecast to trend away from its previously more zonal configuration towards more amplification today as the general pattern begins to become more active. Several shortwave troughs are expected across the CONUS today, combining with an expansive warm sector to support an extensive stretch of strong to severe thunderstorms from the southern High Plains into the Northeast. Thunderstorms are also possible within the moist and confluent flow from the Gulf Coast into the southern Appalachians and the anonymously moist airmass across the Southwest. Additionally, thunderstorms are possible during the second half of the period from northern CA through the Great Basin as shortwave trough moves quickly eastward across the region overnight.

Mid/Upper MS Valley across the southern Great Lakes and OH Valley into the Northeast

Recent surface analysis places a low near the IA/WI border vicinity, with perhaps another weak low farther southwest across southwest IA. A warm front extends eastward from the IA/WI border surface low across southern WI and southern Lower MI. Showers and thunderstorms occurred overnight along and north of this boundary, with the primary remnants currently over southwestern ON towards western NY. Additional thunderstorm development is beginning to the northwest of the IA/WI border surface low as well as farther south within the warm sector across northern IL. This activity is likely supported by a combination of persistent warm-air advection and ascent linked to a subtle shortwave trough moving through IA. Most guidance suggests this activity, particularly the IL cluster, increases in coverage and intensity over the next several hours as it continues eastward across Lower MI and eventually into western PA/western NY. Some intensification of the convective remnants moving across southwest ON is possible as well. Robust deep-layer westerly flow amid at least modest buoyancy will support damaging gusts as the primary severe risk with these clusters. There is also enough low-level curvature to support a low-probability tornado risk, particularly along the southwest flanks of the IL and ON clusters where a more cell-in-line convective mode is possible. A line-embedded circulation could also occur if these clusters can become more organized.

How these clusters evolve, in particular the strength of any outflow, will dictate the extent of airmass recovery in their wake. This is particularly true across the OH Valley where much of the guidance suggests another round of thunderstorms is possible along a cold front forecast to move across the region this evening. Current expectation is that the airmass will support strong to severe thunderstorms, especially from central IN into central IL where the influence of antecedent convection should be minimal. Steep lapse rates and moderate shear will support a hail risk with the initially more cellular development along the front. A trend towards a more linear mode is anticipated thereafter, with undercutting by the cold front likely as well.

Lastly, elevated thunderstorms are expected overnight from northern MO into southern IA and central IL amid steep lapse rates and a strengthening low-level jet. Marginally severe hail is possible with this activity as well.

Central/Southern Plains

Recent surface analysis places a low over southwest KS, with a dryline extending southwestward from this low through southeast NM into Far West TX. This low is forecast to shift southeastward along the leading edge of a cold front pushing southward into the TX Panhandle and western OK, with its associated dryline gradually shifting eastward. Increasing low-level moisture and strong heating will help destabilize the airmass ahead of the front and surface low. Low-level convergence along the front/dryline, and particularly near the surface low, will support convective initiation. Vertical shear will be sufficient for storm organization and a few supercells are possible. Steep lapse rates and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer suggest large hail is possible early in the convective cycle, while high LCLs suggest a trend toward strong downbursts thereafter.

..Mosier/Bentley.. 03/31/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, April 1

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are likely across the southern and central Plains on Wednesday afternoon and evening. Severe wind gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes are the primary concerns. Isolated strong/severe storms are also possible over parts of the upper Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 310601

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA…EASTERN KANSAS…AND WESTERN MISSOURI

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are likely across the southern and central Plains on Wednesday afternoon and evening. Severe wind gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes are the primary concerns. Isolated strong/severe storms are also possible over parts of the upper Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic.

Synopsis

By 12 UTC Wednesday, a stalled frontal boundary will likely be draped from the southern/central Plains eastward along the OH Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic. Aloft, a progressive upper wave will traverse the Southwest during the day, eventually ejecting into the southern Plains around or after 00 UTC. The approach of the upper wave will support lee cyclogenesis across southeast CO into western KS, which will foster northward advection of low 60s dewpoints (already noted in early-morning surface observations along the TX coast) into OK and eastern KS by late afternoon. The intensification of the low will also promote a northward advancement of the boundary as a warm front into northern MO and possibly southern IA by late evening, as well as the sharpening of a dryline across western OK into northwest and western TX through the day. Strong to severe thunderstorm potential will mainly be focused along/ahead of the dryline and in proximity to the warm front as the upper wave begins to eject during the early evening hours.

Southern Kansas into Oklahoma and northwest Texas

Initiation along the dryline appears likely during the 21-00 UTC period across western OK into northwest TX as a combination of diurnal heating and increasing synoptic ascent act to erode inhibition. Elongated hodographs featuring effective bulk shear values between 35-45 knots will support initially discrete supercells capable of large/very large hail and tornadoes (though uncertainty persists regarding low-level SRH through early evening). Upscale growth is anticipated at some point during the evening hours, though there is some uncertainty on when this transition will occur and the primary threat becomes severe wind. Regardless, an increase in the nocturnal jet will enlarge low-level hodographs and maintain the tornado potential into the late evening hours.

Eastern Kansas and western Missouri

Latest guidance shows fairly strong consistency in the development of semi-discrete convection along the lifting warm front across eastern KS into western MO during the late afternoon/evening hours - likely owing to weaker capping and focused low/mid-level warm advection that is noted in most forecast soundings. Veering winds within the warm frontal zone will support effective SRH values on the order of 200-300 m2/s2, and surface-based LCLs near or below 1 km will likely support a tornado threat in addition to large/very large hail. While the potential for robust supercells is noted, the weak capping and focused ascent may promote thunderstorm clustering and upscale growth (as hinted by 00z HRRR/RRFS solutions) that could limit the longevity of these threats; however, the strong signal in guidance for deep convection within a favorable environment warrants an expansion of probabilities.

Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic

Diurnal heating along and focused low-level ascent along the stalled boundary will likely support isolated to widely scattered convection by mid-afternoon. While mid-level flow will be somewhat modest compared to locations further west, sufficient hodograph elongation should promote at least a few more organized storms capable of posing a large hail threat. Deep-layer flow along the boundary may promote clustering during peak heating with an attendant threat for damaging/severe winds.

..Moore.. 03/31/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Thursday, April 2

Outlook Summary

Bands of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Midwest and Great Lakes regions Thursday afternoon. The primary hazard will be severe gusts, but a tornado or two will also be possible.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 310729

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES

### SUMMARY

Bands of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Midwest and Great Lakes regions Thursday afternoon. The primary hazard will be severe gusts, but a tornado or two will also be possible.

Synopsis

A surface cyclone is forecast to deepen as it accelerates northeastward towards the upper MS Valley in tandem with an upper trough through the day Thursday. Residual thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the Ozarks and will track northeast within a strengthening wind field. Re-intensification appears likely by mid-afternoon from lower MI southwestward into IL and IN. Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated along a trailing cold front across the mid-MS Valley through the afternoon. Elsewhere, more loosely organized convection is expected across the lower MS Valley and along the Appalachians.

Midwest/Great Lakes

A combination of northward moisture advection and diurnal heating will likely support a re-intensification of residual convection emanating out of MO by mid-afternoon. Winds through the 925-850 mb layer are forecast to increase to 45-55 knots through the day, which will support organized convective lines with an attendant threat for damaging/severe gusts. Additionally, forecast soundings generally depict strong veering above 1 km AGL, which coupled with hodograph elongation through the lowest 1-3 km, will support effective SRH values on the order of 250-350 m2/s2 and a tornado threat with the more intense/robust lines. That said, the degree of destabilization ahead of this activity remains uncertain with guidance generally depicting MLCAPE values on the order of 500 J/kg. While somewhat meager, the strong flow fields will likely compensate and support a severe wind threat. 15% probabilities were introduced from eastern IL northeastward into MI where confidence in the overlap of strong low-level flow and MLCAPE near 500 J/kg is highest.

Further to the west, additional thunderstorm development is anticipated along the primary synoptic cold front across the mid/upper MS Valley. As with the activity further east, this convection will develop within a modestly buoyant, but strongly sheared environment that should favor a damaging wind threat. Confidence in destabilization is somewhat more limited owing to uncertainty on how quickly early-morning showers/thunderstorms will exit the region and allow for adequate diurnal destabilization.

..Moore.. 03/31/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Friday, April 3

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 310850 SPC AC 310850

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

DISCUSSION

Severe weather potential will persist through the remainder of the work week and into parts of the weekend as an amplified upper wave and attendant surface low traverse the country. The cold front associated with the late-week storm system will most likely push south into the Gulf by Sunday as high pressure builds across the eastern two-thirds of the country and short-wave ridging builds aloft. This will likely limit the potential for widespread severe thunderstorms for the early portion of next week.

D4/Friday - Lower Missouri Valley into the southern Plains

The approach of an upper wave into the central U.S. will support steady intensification of a surface low across eastern KS and into the lower MO River Valley through the day Friday. This will support a northward flux of low to mid 60s dewpoints through the day, which should yield SBCAPE values on the order of 2000 to perhaps 3000 J/kg across northern OK into eastern KS and far western MO by late afternoon based on a consensus of model solutions. Thunderstorm development is expected as a cold front slowly begins to push southeast and overtakes a surface trough/dryline. Deep-layer shear vectors and storm motions off the boundary should promote initially discrete cells, though upscale growth is anticipated by the evening hours amid persistent ascent along the front. Regardless, long-range guidance has shown a consistent signal for a robust convective environment over the past 48 hours, and the favorable alignment of both deterministic and ensemble guidance lends high confidence in a severe threat emerging across this region Friday afternoon and evening.

D5/Saturday - Midwest/OH Valley

Friday's surface low will continue to deepen as it accelerates northeastward into the Midwest and Great Lakes by late Saturday. Northward moisture advection is expected ahead of a trailing cold front as it rapidly shifts east across the Midwest and lower OH Valley through the afternoon. Strong flow fields within the lowest few kilometers and focused lift along the front will likely support some degree of a severe wind threat. However, guidance continues to show disagreement regarding mean wind vector orientation with the front and the degree of pre-frontal destabilization, both of which will influence the intensity of convection and the overall severe threat.

..Moore.. 03/31/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, April 4

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 310850 SPC AC 310850

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

DISCUSSION

Severe weather potential will persist through the remainder of the work week and into parts of the weekend as an amplified upper wave and attendant surface low traverse the country. The cold front associated with the late-week storm system will most likely push south into the Gulf by Sunday as high pressure builds across the eastern two-thirds of the country and short-wave ridging builds aloft. This will likely limit the potential for widespread severe thunderstorms for the early portion of next week.

D4/Friday - Lower Missouri Valley into the southern Plains

The approach of an upper wave into the central U.S. will support steady intensification of a surface low across eastern KS and into the lower MO River Valley through the day Friday. This will support a northward flux of low to mid 60s dewpoints through the day, which should yield SBCAPE values on the order of 2000 to perhaps 3000 J/kg across northern OK into eastern KS and far western MO by late afternoon based on a consensus of model solutions. Thunderstorm development is expected as a cold front slowly begins to push southeast and overtakes a surface trough/dryline. Deep-layer shear vectors and storm motions off the boundary should promote initially discrete cells, though upscale growth is anticipated by the evening hours amid persistent ascent along the front. Regardless, long-range guidance has shown a consistent signal for a robust convective environment over the past 48 hours, and the favorable alignment of both deterministic and ensemble guidance lends high confidence in a severe threat emerging across this region Friday afternoon and evening.

D5/Saturday - Midwest/OH Valley

Friday's surface low will continue to deepen as it accelerates northeastward into the Midwest and Great Lakes by late Saturday. Northward moisture advection is expected ahead of a trailing cold front as it rapidly shifts east across the Midwest and lower OH Valley through the afternoon. Strong flow fields within the lowest few kilometers and focused lift along the front will likely support some degree of a severe wind threat. However, guidance continues to show disagreement regarding mean wind vector orientation with the front and the degree of pre-frontal destabilization, both of which will influence the intensity of convection and the overall severe threat.

..Moore.. 03/31/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, April 5

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 310850 SPC AC 310850

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

DISCUSSION

Severe weather potential will persist through the remainder of the work week and into parts of the weekend as an amplified upper wave and attendant surface low traverse the country. The cold front associated with the late-week storm system will most likely push south into the Gulf by Sunday as high pressure builds across the eastern two-thirds of the country and short-wave ridging builds aloft. This will likely limit the potential for widespread severe thunderstorms for the early portion of next week.

D4/Friday - Lower Missouri Valley into the southern Plains

The approach of an upper wave into the central U.S. will support steady intensification of a surface low across eastern KS and into the lower MO River Valley through the day Friday. This will support a northward flux of low to mid 60s dewpoints through the day, which should yield SBCAPE values on the order of 2000 to perhaps 3000 J/kg across northern OK into eastern KS and far western MO by late afternoon based on a consensus of model solutions. Thunderstorm development is expected as a cold front slowly begins to push southeast and overtakes a surface trough/dryline. Deep-layer shear vectors and storm motions off the boundary should promote initially discrete cells, though upscale growth is anticipated by the evening hours amid persistent ascent along the front. Regardless, long-range guidance has shown a consistent signal for a robust convective environment over the past 48 hours, and the favorable alignment of both deterministic and ensemble guidance lends high confidence in a severe threat emerging across this region Friday afternoon and evening.

D5/Saturday - Midwest/OH Valley

Friday's surface low will continue to deepen as it accelerates northeastward into the Midwest and Great Lakes by late Saturday. Northward moisture advection is expected ahead of a trailing cold front as it rapidly shifts east across the Midwest and lower OH Valley through the afternoon. Strong flow fields within the lowest few kilometers and focused lift along the front will likely support some degree of a severe wind threat. However, guidance continues to show disagreement regarding mean wind vector orientation with the front and the degree of pre-frontal destabilization, both of which will influence the intensity of convection and the overall severe threat.

..Moore.. 03/31/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, April 6

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 310850 SPC AC 310850

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

DISCUSSION

Severe weather potential will persist through the remainder of the work week and into parts of the weekend as an amplified upper wave and attendant surface low traverse the country. The cold front associated with the late-week storm system will most likely push south into the Gulf by Sunday as high pressure builds across the eastern two-thirds of the country and short-wave ridging builds aloft. This will likely limit the potential for widespread severe thunderstorms for the early portion of next week.

D4/Friday - Lower Missouri Valley into the southern Plains

The approach of an upper wave into the central U.S. will support steady intensification of a surface low across eastern KS and into the lower MO River Valley through the day Friday. This will support a northward flux of low to mid 60s dewpoints through the day, which should yield SBCAPE values on the order of 2000 to perhaps 3000 J/kg across northern OK into eastern KS and far western MO by late afternoon based on a consensus of model solutions. Thunderstorm development is expected as a cold front slowly begins to push southeast and overtakes a surface trough/dryline. Deep-layer shear vectors and storm motions off the boundary should promote initially discrete cells, though upscale growth is anticipated by the evening hours amid persistent ascent along the front. Regardless, long-range guidance has shown a consistent signal for a robust convective environment over the past 48 hours, and the favorable alignment of both deterministic and ensemble guidance lends high confidence in a severe threat emerging across this region Friday afternoon and evening.

D5/Saturday - Midwest/OH Valley

Friday's surface low will continue to deepen as it accelerates northeastward into the Midwest and Great Lakes by late Saturday. Northward moisture advection is expected ahead of a trailing cold front as it rapidly shifts east across the Midwest and lower OH Valley through the afternoon. Strong flow fields within the lowest few kilometers and focused lift along the front will likely support some degree of a severe wind threat. However, guidance continues to show disagreement regarding mean wind vector orientation with the front and the degree of pre-frontal destabilization, both of which will influence the intensity of convection and the overall severe threat.

..Moore.. 03/31/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, April 7

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 310850 SPC AC 310850

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

DISCUSSION

Severe weather potential will persist through the remainder of the work week and into parts of the weekend as an amplified upper wave and attendant surface low traverse the country. The cold front associated with the late-week storm system will most likely push south into the Gulf by Sunday as high pressure builds across the eastern two-thirds of the country and short-wave ridging builds aloft. This will likely limit the potential for widespread severe thunderstorms for the early portion of next week.

D4/Friday - Lower Missouri Valley into the southern Plains

The approach of an upper wave into the central U.S. will support steady intensification of a surface low across eastern KS and into the lower MO River Valley through the day Friday. This will support a northward flux of low to mid 60s dewpoints through the day, which should yield SBCAPE values on the order of 2000 to perhaps 3000 J/kg across northern OK into eastern KS and far western MO by late afternoon based on a consensus of model solutions. Thunderstorm development is expected as a cold front slowly begins to push southeast and overtakes a surface trough/dryline. Deep-layer shear vectors and storm motions off the boundary should promote initially discrete cells, though upscale growth is anticipated by the evening hours amid persistent ascent along the front. Regardless, long-range guidance has shown a consistent signal for a robust convective environment over the past 48 hours, and the favorable alignment of both deterministic and ensemble guidance lends high confidence in a severe threat emerging across this region Friday afternoon and evening.

D5/Saturday - Midwest/OH Valley

Friday's surface low will continue to deepen as it accelerates northeastward into the Midwest and Great Lakes by late Saturday. Northward moisture advection is expected ahead of a trailing cold front as it rapidly shifts east across the Midwest and lower OH Valley through the afternoon. Strong flow fields within the lowest few kilometers and focused lift along the front will likely support some degree of a severe wind threat. However, guidance continues to show disagreement regarding mean wind vector orientation with the front and the degree of pre-frontal destabilization, both of which will influence the intensity of convection and the overall severe threat.

..Moore.. 03/31/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Tuesday, March 31

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Wednesday, April 1

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Thursday, April 2

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Friday, April 3

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Saturday, April 4

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Sunday, April 5

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Monday, April 6

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Tuesday, April 7

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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