Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, February 4
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 041629
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Wed Feb 04 2026
Valid 041630Z - 051200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
Synopsis
Current satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough extending from the Lower MO Valley through OK and the TX Panhandle. This shortwave is forecast to continue progressing southeastward, moving from the western to southern periphery of the mean upper troughing that covers much of the eastern CONUS. This progression will deepen the eastern CONUS troughing, while a Rex Block persists across the western CONUS. This evolution will yield an strongly amplified upper pattern over the CONUS by early tomorrow morning.
Surface analysis places a low over the southern Appalachians in northern GA, with a cold front extending southwestward from this through the central Gulf Coast. Showers and embedded thunderstorms precede this front from the FL Panhandle through central and eastern SC, although most of the lightning is currently offshore. As the aforementioned shortwave trough continues southeastward, this front is forecast to surge southeastward as well. Inland buoyancy ahead of the front will be limited by tempered heating and poor lapse rates, which is expected to keep any thunderstorm potential offshore for the remainder of the period.
..Mosier/Thornton.. 02/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Thursday, February 5
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday or Thursday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 041636
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Wed Feb 04 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday or Thursday night.
Discussion
Conditions will be too dry/stable for lightning-producing convection across the CONUS through the period.
..Grams.. 02/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Friday, February 6
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorm potential appears low on Friday and Friday night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 040810
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 AM CST Wed Feb 04 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorm potential appears low on Friday and Friday night.
Discussion
Along the western periphery of an amplified upper ridge over the Rockies, a weak, negative-tilt midlevel trough will advance northward across the southern Great Basin. While an isolated lightning flash cannot be entirely ruled out with convection accompanying this feature, updrafts should generally be too weak/shallow for an appreciable thunderstorm risk.
..Weinman.. 02/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Saturday, February 7
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, February 7 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, February 8 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, February 9 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, February 10 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, February 11 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040944 SPC AC 040944
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CST Wed Feb 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range guidance depicts a low-latitude midlevel trough advancing eastward across parts of Mexico and the Southwest on Days 4-6/Saturday-Monday, before emerging over the southern Plains vicinity around Day 7/Tuesday. While the timing and overall evolution of this feature remain uncertain (given substantial model differences), current indications are that the unconsolidated/split-flow nature of the upper-level pattern and weakly modified Gulf moisture return will limit severe potential.
..Weinman.. 02/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, February 8
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, February 7 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, February 8 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, February 9 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, February 10 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, February 11 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040944 SPC AC 040944
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CST Wed Feb 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range guidance depicts a low-latitude midlevel trough advancing eastward across parts of Mexico and the Southwest on Days 4-6/Saturday-Monday, before emerging over the southern Plains vicinity around Day 7/Tuesday. While the timing and overall evolution of this feature remain uncertain (given substantial model differences), current indications are that the unconsolidated/split-flow nature of the upper-level pattern and weakly modified Gulf moisture return will limit severe potential.
..Weinman.. 02/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, February 9
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, February 7 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, February 8 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, February 9 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, February 10 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, February 11 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040944 SPC AC 040944
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CST Wed Feb 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range guidance depicts a low-latitude midlevel trough advancing eastward across parts of Mexico and the Southwest on Days 4-6/Saturday-Monday, before emerging over the southern Plains vicinity around Day 7/Tuesday. While the timing and overall evolution of this feature remain uncertain (given substantial model differences), current indications are that the unconsolidated/split-flow nature of the upper-level pattern and weakly modified Gulf moisture return will limit severe potential.
..Weinman.. 02/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, February 10
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, February 7 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, February 8 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, February 9 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, February 10 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, February 11 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040944 SPC AC 040944
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CST Wed Feb 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range guidance depicts a low-latitude midlevel trough advancing eastward across parts of Mexico and the Southwest on Days 4-6/Saturday-Monday, before emerging over the southern Plains vicinity around Day 7/Tuesday. While the timing and overall evolution of this feature remain uncertain (given substantial model differences), current indications are that the unconsolidated/split-flow nature of the upper-level pattern and weakly modified Gulf moisture return will limit severe potential.
..Weinman.. 02/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, February 11
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, February 7 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, February 8 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, February 9 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, February 10 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, February 11 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040944 SPC AC 040944
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CST Wed Feb 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range guidance depicts a low-latitude midlevel trough advancing eastward across parts of Mexico and the Southwest on Days 4-6/Saturday-Monday, before emerging over the southern Plains vicinity around Day 7/Tuesday. While the timing and overall evolution of this feature remain uncertain (given substantial model differences), current indications are that the unconsolidated/split-flow nature of the upper-level pattern and weakly modified Gulf moisture return will limit severe potential.
..Weinman.. 02/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, February 4
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Thursday, February 5
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Friday, February 6
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Saturday, February 7
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, February 8
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, February 9
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, February 10
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, February 11
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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