Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, December 7
Outlook Summary
Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible across parts of the Florida Peninsula beginning late this afternoon through the evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 071619
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 AM CST Sun Dec 07 2025
Valid 071630Z - 081200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
### SUMMARY
Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible across parts of the Florida Peninsula beginning late this afternoon through the evening.
Florida Peninsula
Late morning radar/satellite composite shows a rain shield and embedded convection along a west-east oriented, southward-sagging front over the north-central Gulf. This rain activity is possibly the result of a weak disturbance moving eastward across the northern Gulf of America within the base of a larger-scale mean trough over the central and eastern part of North America. This disturbance is forecast to move into north FL late today and east of the FL/GA coasts by mid-late evening.
Considerable cloudiness will likely persist near/north of I-4 and combine with meager low to mid tropospheric lapse rates to thereby limit destabilization. However, a seasonably moist airmass will probably yield a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE prior to an increasing prevalence of showers/thunderstorms moving east from the Gulf into the west/northern portions of the Peninsula towards late this afternoon and evening. Ample mid- to high-level flow will support storm-scale rotation contingent on a sufficiently strong updraft or two developing within this zone of convection. The risk for localized strong/damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado may accompany the strongest storms, mainly during the 22-08 UTC period, as this threat shifts from northwest to south across the Peninsula.
..Smith/Barnes.. 12/07/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Monday, December 8
Outlook Summary
Aside from the possibility of a couple weak thunderstorms near and, perhaps, inland of southern Florida coastal areas, the risk for thunderstorms will remain negligible across much of the U.S. Monday through Monday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 070500
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Aside from the possibility of a couple weak thunderstorms near and, perhaps, inland of southern Florida coastal areas, the risk for thunderstorms will remain negligible across much of the U.S. Monday through Monday night.
Synopsis
The center of a fairly prominent, but relatively compact mid-level vortex is likely to continue redeveloping east-southeast of southern Hudson/James Bay, into and across the Newfoundland and Labrador vicinity during this period. However, models indicate that large-scale mid-level troughing will be maintained east of the Rockies through the western Atlantic, downstream of persistent broad ridging across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific into U.S Intermountain West.
One notable short wave perturbation embedded within the troughing is forecast to accelerate east-northeast of the southern Appalachians, across and offshore of the southern Mid Atlantic, but this may contribute to suppression of subtropical ridging as far south as the Caribbean and Bahamas. In lower levels, an associated reinforcing intrusion of cooler/drier air appears likely to contribute to the southward advancement of the primary cold front through much of the remainder of the Florida Peninsula and Gulf Basin.
At the same time, it appears that another notable short wave perturbation, progressing through the crest of upstream ridge, will provide support for surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies by late Monday night. This likely will be accompanied by downslope aided warming across much of the high plains, but dry, stable conditions will be maintained there and across much of the remainder of the U.S.
Southern Florida/Keys
Latest model output remains varied concerning potential for thunderstorm development along/ahead of the southward advancing front. Mid/upper support appears weak, with potential for appreciable destabilization, particularly inland of coastal areas, limited as well.
..Kerr.. 12/07/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Tuesday, December 9
Outlook Summary
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 070714
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CST Sun Dec 07 2025
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night.
Discussion
Models continue to indicate little substantive change to the large-scale mid/upper flow impacting the U.S. through this period. Broad ridging is likely to persist across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific into the U.S. Intermountain West and Rockies, with downstream troughing east of the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard and western Atlantic. The troughing is likely to be reinforced by another significant short wave perturbation, digging within northwesterly flow to the lee of the crest of the ridge.
It appears that this will be accompanied by a rapidly migrating cyclone across the northern Great Plains through much of the upper Great Lakes region by late tonight. In the wake of this feature, models indicate an increasingly significant intrusion of cold air will begin to surge southward into parts of the northern Great Plains and upper Mississippi Valley, preceded by strengthening flow veering to an increasing westerly component as far south as the Gulf coast vicinity.
Even as the Gulf boundary layer begins to modify to the north of a stalling and weakening front, south of the Florida Peninsula through the southern Gulf Basin, appreciable inland moisture is unlikely through this period and beyond.
..Kerr.. 12/07/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Wednesday, December 10
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, December 10 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, December 11 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, December 12 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, December 13 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, December 14 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070848 SPC AC 070848
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 AM CST Sun Dec 07 2025
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
After becoming suppressed a bit, medium-range guidance indicates that a blocking high may become more prominent again, near/north of the Aleutians late this coming work week into next weekend. Surrounding developments across the mid- and higher latitudes of the Pacific do become characterized by increasing spread. However, it is not yet clear how much impact this will have on downstream flow across North America. It still appears that an increasingly confluent northwesterly mid-level regime, between persistent ridging across the eastern Pacific into western North America and downstream troughing, may support the development of another expansive surface ridge east of the Rockies into the Gulf Basin and Atlantic Seaboard late this week through next weekend. This is likely to further impede deep boundary-layer moistening over the northwestern Gulf. Coupled with the lack of a developing southerly return flow from the Gulf Basin until at least early next week, it appears that generally stable conditions will be maintained through this period.
..Kerr.. 12/07/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, December 11
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, December 10 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, December 11 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, December 12 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, December 13 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, December 14 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070848 SPC AC 070848
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 AM CST Sun Dec 07 2025
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
After becoming suppressed a bit, medium-range guidance indicates that a blocking high may become more prominent again, near/north of the Aleutians late this coming work week into next weekend. Surrounding developments across the mid- and higher latitudes of the Pacific do become characterized by increasing spread. However, it is not yet clear how much impact this will have on downstream flow across North America. It still appears that an increasingly confluent northwesterly mid-level regime, between persistent ridging across the eastern Pacific into western North America and downstream troughing, may support the development of another expansive surface ridge east of the Rockies into the Gulf Basin and Atlantic Seaboard late this week through next weekend. This is likely to further impede deep boundary-layer moistening over the northwestern Gulf. Coupled with the lack of a developing southerly return flow from the Gulf Basin until at least early next week, it appears that generally stable conditions will be maintained through this period.
..Kerr.. 12/07/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, December 12
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, December 10 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, December 11 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, December 12 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, December 13 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, December 14 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070848 SPC AC 070848
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 AM CST Sun Dec 07 2025
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
After becoming suppressed a bit, medium-range guidance indicates that a blocking high may become more prominent again, near/north of the Aleutians late this coming work week into next weekend. Surrounding developments across the mid- and higher latitudes of the Pacific do become characterized by increasing spread. However, it is not yet clear how much impact this will have on downstream flow across North America. It still appears that an increasingly confluent northwesterly mid-level regime, between persistent ridging across the eastern Pacific into western North America and downstream troughing, may support the development of another expansive surface ridge east of the Rockies into the Gulf Basin and Atlantic Seaboard late this week through next weekend. This is likely to further impede deep boundary-layer moistening over the northwestern Gulf. Coupled with the lack of a developing southerly return flow from the Gulf Basin until at least early next week, it appears that generally stable conditions will be maintained through this period.
..Kerr.. 12/07/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, December 13
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, December 10 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, December 11 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, December 12 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, December 13 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, December 14 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070848 SPC AC 070848
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 AM CST Sun Dec 07 2025
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
After becoming suppressed a bit, medium-range guidance indicates that a blocking high may become more prominent again, near/north of the Aleutians late this coming work week into next weekend. Surrounding developments across the mid- and higher latitudes of the Pacific do become characterized by increasing spread. However, it is not yet clear how much impact this will have on downstream flow across North America. It still appears that an increasingly confluent northwesterly mid-level regime, between persistent ridging across the eastern Pacific into western North America and downstream troughing, may support the development of another expansive surface ridge east of the Rockies into the Gulf Basin and Atlantic Seaboard late this week through next weekend. This is likely to further impede deep boundary-layer moistening over the northwestern Gulf. Coupled with the lack of a developing southerly return flow from the Gulf Basin until at least early next week, it appears that generally stable conditions will be maintained through this period.
..Kerr.. 12/07/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, December 14
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, December 10 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, December 11 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, December 12 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, December 13 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, December 14 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070848 SPC AC 070848
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 AM CST Sun Dec 07 2025
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
After becoming suppressed a bit, medium-range guidance indicates that a blocking high may become more prominent again, near/north of the Aleutians late this coming work week into next weekend. Surrounding developments across the mid- and higher latitudes of the Pacific do become characterized by increasing spread. However, it is not yet clear how much impact this will have on downstream flow across North America. It still appears that an increasingly confluent northwesterly mid-level regime, between persistent ridging across the eastern Pacific into western North America and downstream troughing, may support the development of another expansive surface ridge east of the Rockies into the Gulf Basin and Atlantic Seaboard late this week through next weekend. This is likely to further impede deep boundary-layer moistening over the northwestern Gulf. Coupled with the lack of a developing southerly return flow from the Gulf Basin until at least early next week, it appears that generally stable conditions will be maintained through this period.
..Kerr.. 12/07/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, December 7
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Monday, December 8
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, December 9
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Wednesday, December 10
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, December 11
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, December 12
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, December 13
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, December 14
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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