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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Monday, June 1

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected Monday afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains. Scattered to numerous strong to severe wind gusts will also be possible from the Ozarks southeastward into parts of the Southeast.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 011211

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0711 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026

Valid 011300Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS…AND PARTS OF THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected Monday afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains. Scattered to numerous strong to severe wind gusts will also be possible from the Ozarks southeastward into parts of the Southeast.

Southeast States

An occasionally severe MCS is ongoing this morning south of STL. This activity may persist through much of the day, tracking southeastward along the low-level moisture/instability gradient into western KY/middle TN and eventually north GA. Moderate CAPE values, 30+ knots of mid-level steering flow, and mesoscale organization of the MCS will pose a risk of strong/damaging winds along this corridor.

Along the western flank of this MCS, a hot/humid air mass will develop from AR into parts of TN/MS/AL with temperatures in the 90s and dewpoints in the 70s. This will yield afternoon MLCAPE values approaching 4000 J/kg. The consensus of model guidance suggests scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon, with outflows congealing and spreading south/southwestward though a steep lapse-rate environment. The result will be the potential for rather widespread strong/severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. These storms may spread as far south as central MS/AL during the evening before weakening.

High Plains

Easterly low-level winds are present this morning over much of eastern CO/western KS. This will maintain an influx of moisture and aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms over the foothills of central CO by mid-afternoon. Sufficient deep-layer shear will pose a risk of supercells capable of large/very large hail. As the storms move/develop eastward into western KS this evening, supercell structures may persist, but upscale growth into bowing clusters is also expected. This will increase the risk of severe wind gusts as well. The easterly low-level jet will also strengthen considerably this evening across the region, enhancing low-level shear and helicity, but in a region with high LCLs and dewpoints only around 50F.

Widely scattered severe storms are also expected to develop over southeast WY, spreading eastward into the NE panhandle and southwest SD with a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts.

..Hart/Kerr.. 06/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, June 2

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms with large hail, severe wind gusts and potentially an isolated tornado threat are expected on Tuesday afternoon and evening in parts of the northern Plains. Strong wind gusts and hail will also be possible in parts of the southern and central High Plains. A few severe wind gusts may also occur from southern Georgia into northern and eastern Florida.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 010727

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS

CORRECTED TO ADD WIND PROBABILITY GRAPHIC

SUMMARY

Thunderstorms with large hail, severe wind gusts and potentially an isolated tornado threat are expected on Tuesday afternoon and evening in parts of the northern Plains. Strong wind gusts and hail will also be possible in parts of the southern and central High Plains. A few severe wind gusts may also occur from southern Georgia into northern and eastern Florida.

Northern Plains

A mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward on Tuesday over the top of a moist and unstable airmass located in the northern Plains. At the surface, a south-to-north corridor of low-level moisture will be in place across the Dakotas. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the western edge of the moist sector during the afternoon, being supported by large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave trough. Storms will likely increase in coverage during the late afternoon and early evening, with multiple small storm clusters moving northeastward across the region.

Along and near the axis of low-level moisture, MLCAPE is forecast to increase into the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range by afternoon. Within this moist airmass, the most favorable environment for severe storms is forecast near the mid-level trough in central North Dakota. Forecast soundings around Bismarck at 21Z have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 45 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km, suggesting that supercells with large hail will be possible. In addition, late afternoon forecast soundings have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 200 to 250 m2/s2 range, which could support an isolated tornado threat. Severe wind gusts would also be possible with any organized clusters that can persist from late afternoon into the evening.

Southern and Central High Plains

Southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place on Tuesday in the southern and central Plains, over the western edge of the moist sector. Although model forecasts suggest that large-scale forcing will be limited in most areas, some models forecast a corridor of maximized low-level convergence in the afternoon over eastern Colorado and eastern New Mexico. This would support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development, with storms moving east-northeastward across the southern and central High Plains during the afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings to the east of this axis of low-level convergence during the late afternoon have 0-6 km shear in the 20 to 25 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This suggests that hail will be possible. Isolated severe wind gusts may also occur, especially if a convective cluster can become somewhat organized during the early to mid evening.

Northern and Eastern Florida/Southern Georgia

An upper-level trough will move southward into the Southeast on Tuesday, as a cold front advances southward into southern Georgia. Along and to the south of the front, surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to lower 70s F will contribute to the development of moderate instability by afternoon. Within this unstable airmass, low-level lapse rates will become steep during the mid to late afternoon, which may support an isolated wind-damage threat with the stronger multicells. An isolated potential for severe wind gusts will also be possible in the afternoon along sea breeze boundaries near the coast of northern and eastern Florida.

..Broyles.. 06/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, June 3

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible on Wednesday in parts of the northern Plains. Strong wind gusts and hail will also be possible in parts of the central High Plains.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 010713

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible on Wednesday in parts of the northern Plains. Strong wind gusts and hail will also be possible in parts of the central High Plains.

Northern Plains/Central High Plains

At mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move across the Northern High Plains on Wednesday, as southwesterly flow remains in place over the Dakotas. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move eastward into the central Dakotas during the afternoon. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F will contribute to an axis of moderate instability over the eastern Dakotas by mid to late afternoon. Low-level convergence ahead of the front and large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave trough will support scattered thunderstorm development. Multiple small clusters of storms appear likely to move eastward across the instability corridor in the afternoon and evening.

Ahead of the front late Wednesday afternoon, forecast soundings from northeast South Dakota into southeastern North Dakota have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7 to 7.5 C/km range. This environment is expected to support supercells with large hail. Severe wind gusts will also be possible, mainly with any organized cluster that can persist into the early to mid evening.

Further south across the central High Plains, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to be in place by afternoon. Although model forecasts suggest that large-ascent will remain weak, isolated storms could develop in areas where low-level convergence becomes maximized. By late afternoon, forecast soundings in the central High Plains have 0-6 km shear in the 20 to 25 knot range with 0-3 km lapse rates near 8 C/km. This would support an isolated threat for severe wind gusts. Hail will also be possible.

..Broyles.. 06/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Thursday, June 4

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010855 SPC AC 010855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6

At mid-levels, a trough is forecast to move across the western U.S. on Thursday, as a subtle lead shortwave trough moves into the central and northern High Plains. At the surface, a broad area of moderate instability is forecast to be in place across much of Nebraska and South Dakota by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the shortwave trough in the central and northern High Plains, with these storms moving eastward across western Nebraska and western South Dakota during the afternoon and evening. The instability along with moderate to strong deep-layer shear is expected to support severe thunderstorm development. Supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible. An isolated tornado threat may also develop.

The mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the northern Plains on Friday and into the upper Mississippi Valley on Saturday. During this time, a severe threat will be possible each afternoon ahead of the shortwave trough in a moist and unstable airmass. A more isolated severe threat may develop southward into the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley. For these two days, spatial uncertainty is substantial concerning the exact location of where the severe threat will be greatest.

Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8

From Sunday into Monday, a broad corridor of moist air is expected to be in place over the Great Plains. Moderate to strong instability appears likely to develop across parts of this airmass each afternoon. Model forecasts suggest that deep-layer shear will remain relatively weak over most of the Great Plains. Although an isolated severe threat would be possible in some areas, uncertainty concerning the mid-level pattern and the resultant deep-layer shear is considerable at this time.

..Broyles.. 06/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Friday, June 5

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010855 SPC AC 010855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6

At mid-levels, a trough is forecast to move across the western U.S. on Thursday, as a subtle lead shortwave trough moves into the central and northern High Plains. At the surface, a broad area of moderate instability is forecast to be in place across much of Nebraska and South Dakota by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the shortwave trough in the central and northern High Plains, with these storms moving eastward across western Nebraska and western South Dakota during the afternoon and evening. The instability along with moderate to strong deep-layer shear is expected to support severe thunderstorm development. Supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible. An isolated tornado threat may also develop.

The mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the northern Plains on Friday and into the upper Mississippi Valley on Saturday. During this time, a severe threat will be possible each afternoon ahead of the shortwave trough in a moist and unstable airmass. A more isolated severe threat may develop southward into the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley. For these two days, spatial uncertainty is substantial concerning the exact location of where the severe threat will be greatest.

Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8

From Sunday into Monday, a broad corridor of moist air is expected to be in place over the Great Plains. Moderate to strong instability appears likely to develop across parts of this airmass each afternoon. Model forecasts suggest that deep-layer shear will remain relatively weak over most of the Great Plains. Although an isolated severe threat would be possible in some areas, uncertainty concerning the mid-level pattern and the resultant deep-layer shear is considerable at this time.

..Broyles.. 06/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, June 6

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010855 SPC AC 010855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6

At mid-levels, a trough is forecast to move across the western U.S. on Thursday, as a subtle lead shortwave trough moves into the central and northern High Plains. At the surface, a broad area of moderate instability is forecast to be in place across much of Nebraska and South Dakota by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the shortwave trough in the central and northern High Plains, with these storms moving eastward across western Nebraska and western South Dakota during the afternoon and evening. The instability along with moderate to strong deep-layer shear is expected to support severe thunderstorm development. Supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible. An isolated tornado threat may also develop.

The mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the northern Plains on Friday and into the upper Mississippi Valley on Saturday. During this time, a severe threat will be possible each afternoon ahead of the shortwave trough in a moist and unstable airmass. A more isolated severe threat may develop southward into the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley. For these two days, spatial uncertainty is substantial concerning the exact location of where the severe threat will be greatest.

Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8

From Sunday into Monday, a broad corridor of moist air is expected to be in place over the Great Plains. Moderate to strong instability appears likely to develop across parts of this airmass each afternoon. Model forecasts suggest that deep-layer shear will remain relatively weak over most of the Great Plains. Although an isolated severe threat would be possible in some areas, uncertainty concerning the mid-level pattern and the resultant deep-layer shear is considerable at this time.

..Broyles.. 06/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, June 7

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010855 SPC AC 010855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6

At mid-levels, a trough is forecast to move across the western U.S. on Thursday, as a subtle lead shortwave trough moves into the central and northern High Plains. At the surface, a broad area of moderate instability is forecast to be in place across much of Nebraska and South Dakota by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the shortwave trough in the central and northern High Plains, with these storms moving eastward across western Nebraska and western South Dakota during the afternoon and evening. The instability along with moderate to strong deep-layer shear is expected to support severe thunderstorm development. Supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible. An isolated tornado threat may also develop.

The mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the northern Plains on Friday and into the upper Mississippi Valley on Saturday. During this time, a severe threat will be possible each afternoon ahead of the shortwave trough in a moist and unstable airmass. A more isolated severe threat may develop southward into the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley. For these two days, spatial uncertainty is substantial concerning the exact location of where the severe threat will be greatest.

Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8

From Sunday into Monday, a broad corridor of moist air is expected to be in place over the Great Plains. Moderate to strong instability appears likely to develop across parts of this airmass each afternoon. Model forecasts suggest that deep-layer shear will remain relatively weak over most of the Great Plains. Although an isolated severe threat would be possible in some areas, uncertainty concerning the mid-level pattern and the resultant deep-layer shear is considerable at this time.

..Broyles.. 06/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

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Outlook for Monday, June 8

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010855 SPC AC 010855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6

At mid-levels, a trough is forecast to move across the western U.S. on Thursday, as a subtle lead shortwave trough moves into the central and northern High Plains. At the surface, a broad area of moderate instability is forecast to be in place across much of Nebraska and South Dakota by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the shortwave trough in the central and northern High Plains, with these storms moving eastward across western Nebraska and western South Dakota during the afternoon and evening. The instability along with moderate to strong deep-layer shear is expected to support severe thunderstorm development. Supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible. An isolated tornado threat may also develop.

The mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the northern Plains on Friday and into the upper Mississippi Valley on Saturday. During this time, a severe threat will be possible each afternoon ahead of the shortwave trough in a moist and unstable airmass. A more isolated severe threat may develop southward into the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley. For these two days, spatial uncertainty is substantial concerning the exact location of where the severe threat will be greatest.

Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8

From Sunday into Monday, a broad corridor of moist air is expected to be in place over the Great Plains. Moderate to strong instability appears likely to develop across parts of this airmass each afternoon. Model forecasts suggest that deep-layer shear will remain relatively weak over most of the Great Plains. Although an isolated severe threat would be possible in some areas, uncertainty concerning the mid-level pattern and the resultant deep-layer shear is considerable at this time.

..Broyles.. 06/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

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National Risk Overview

Monday, June 1

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 30%

Tuesday, June 2

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Wednesday, June 3

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Thursday, June 4

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Friday, June 5

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Saturday, June 6

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Sunday, June 7

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Monday, June 8

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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