Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, October 5
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 051232
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Mon Oct 05 2026
Valid 051300Z - 061200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.
Discussion
Progressive northwesterly flow aloft will continue to reside over the northern tier of the CONUS and Canada, with a prominent upper trough shifting eastward over Quebec. Surface high pressure and large-scale subsidence will generally prevail east of the Mississippi River, while surface troughing becomes established across the Great Plains, but with limited moisture.
Along the Gulf Coast and Florida, some thunderstorms are expected near/south of a southward-shifting frontal boundary. Isolated low-topped thunderstorms may occur today from northern New York into northern New England as a cold front shifts eastward. A few convectively enhanced wind gusts might even occur across this region as lapse rates diurnally steepen.
..Guyer/Dean.. 10/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Tuesday, October 6
Outlook Summary
Severe storms are not expected Tuesday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 050443
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CDT Sun Oct 04 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe storms are not expected Tuesday.
Synopsis
On Tuesday, a deep upper trough will eject northeastward out of the Maritimes and New England, with a secondary low-amplitude trough pushing across Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes through Tuesday night. A large area of high pressure will encompass much of the eastern states, preventing much destabilization ahead of the Great Lakes system. Even so, weak elevated instability may support isolated weak thunderstorms over Michigan late.
To the south, thunderstorms will again be likely over the Gulf of America into central and southern Florida as northeast surface winds push a cold front farther south. Weak shear and lapse rates will preclude severe weather chances over Florida.
Elsewhere, scattered storms are expected over the eastern Great Basin and into western Colorado, as a pocket of cooler midlevel temperatures with a weak upper wave moves across the area. Severe storms are unlikely, though locally strong gusts cannot be ruled out during the afternoon due to the dry sub-cloud layer.
..Jewell.. 10/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Wednesday, October 7
Outlook Summary
Severe storms are unlikely on Wednesday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 050639
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CDT Mon Oct 05 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe storms are unlikely on Wednesday.
Synopsis
An upper low will be situated near James Bay on Wednesday, with a broad upper trough enveloping much of eastern Canada. A strong upper speed max and tight midlevel temperature gradient will extend roughly from MN to the Great Lakes, with gradual height falls across the region. Meanwhile, a southern-stream upper jet will extend from the Desert Southwest into TX, and across the Gulf Coast states. Cool midlevel temperatures aloft will be prevalent over the Four Corners states with -12 C at 500 mb.
Minimal instability will be present to support any thunderstorms from the Great Lakes into the Northeast, despite the cooling aloft, as surface temperatures will be relatively cool. A few low-topped showers may affect the Lower Great Lakes Wednesday night.
Isolated thunderstorms will again be possible over the FL Peninsula, as a front and surface trough gradually move south. Instability and shear will be weak enough to preclude any severe weather chances.
Elsewhere, daytime heating and the presence of cool temperatures aloft will support scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms over parts of UT, CO, AZ and NM. Isolated evening/overnight thunderstorms may extend into NE, as southwest 850 mb winds develop over the central Plains, aiding meager moisture advection. Severe storms appear unlikely.
..Jewell.. 10/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Thursday, October 8
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, October 8 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, October 9 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, October 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, October 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, October 12 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050857 SPC AC 050857
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Mon Oct 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
Little severe weather threat is evident from Thur/D4 through Fri/D5, as a broad upper trough over the Great Lakes and Northeast maintain cool conditions, with high pressure over much of the eastern states preventing moisture return.
For late Sat/D6 into Sun/D7, conditional severe potential may develop along the northern Gulf Coast, depending on the evolution of a tropical disturbance currently over the southwest Gulf of America. NHC currently denotes a 50% chance of cyclone development. A weak midlevel trough is also forecast to develop over TX, and move across the Gulf Coast states during the same time. The combination of increasing moisture and shear could result in an area of tornado potential. Any such event is highly conditional on cyclone formation, and potential will continue to be monitored.
From Sun/D7 and beyond, models suggest a western trough may develop, though model spread is high.
..Jewell.. 10/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, October 9
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, October 8 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, October 9 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, October 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, October 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, October 12 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050857 SPC AC 050857
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Mon Oct 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
Little severe weather threat is evident from Thur/D4 through Fri/D5, as a broad upper trough over the Great Lakes and Northeast maintain cool conditions, with high pressure over much of the eastern states preventing moisture return.
For late Sat/D6 into Sun/D7, conditional severe potential may develop along the northern Gulf Coast, depending on the evolution of a tropical disturbance currently over the southwest Gulf of America. NHC currently denotes a 50% chance of cyclone development. A weak midlevel trough is also forecast to develop over TX, and move across the Gulf Coast states during the same time. The combination of increasing moisture and shear could result in an area of tornado potential. Any such event is highly conditional on cyclone formation, and potential will continue to be monitored.
From Sun/D7 and beyond, models suggest a western trough may develop, though model spread is high.
..Jewell.. 10/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, October 10
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, October 8 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, October 9 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, October 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, October 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, October 12 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050857 SPC AC 050857
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Mon Oct 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
Little severe weather threat is evident from Thur/D4 through Fri/D5, as a broad upper trough over the Great Lakes and Northeast maintain cool conditions, with high pressure over much of the eastern states preventing moisture return.
For late Sat/D6 into Sun/D7, conditional severe potential may develop along the northern Gulf Coast, depending on the evolution of a tropical disturbance currently over the southwest Gulf of America. NHC currently denotes a 50% chance of cyclone development. A weak midlevel trough is also forecast to develop over TX, and move across the Gulf Coast states during the same time. The combination of increasing moisture and shear could result in an area of tornado potential. Any such event is highly conditional on cyclone formation, and potential will continue to be monitored.
From Sun/D7 and beyond, models suggest a western trough may develop, though model spread is high.
..Jewell.. 10/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, October 11
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, October 8 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, October 9 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, October 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, October 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, October 12 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050857 SPC AC 050857
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Mon Oct 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
Little severe weather threat is evident from Thur/D4 through Fri/D5, as a broad upper trough over the Great Lakes and Northeast maintain cool conditions, with high pressure over much of the eastern states preventing moisture return.
For late Sat/D6 into Sun/D7, conditional severe potential may develop along the northern Gulf Coast, depending on the evolution of a tropical disturbance currently over the southwest Gulf of America. NHC currently denotes a 50% chance of cyclone development. A weak midlevel trough is also forecast to develop over TX, and move across the Gulf Coast states during the same time. The combination of increasing moisture and shear could result in an area of tornado potential. Any such event is highly conditional on cyclone formation, and potential will continue to be monitored.
From Sun/D7 and beyond, models suggest a western trough may develop, though model spread is high.
..Jewell.. 10/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, October 12
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, October 8 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, October 9 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, October 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, October 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, October 12 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050857 SPC AC 050857
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Mon Oct 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
Little severe weather threat is evident from Thur/D4 through Fri/D5, as a broad upper trough over the Great Lakes and Northeast maintain cool conditions, with high pressure over much of the eastern states preventing moisture return.
For late Sat/D6 into Sun/D7, conditional severe potential may develop along the northern Gulf Coast, depending on the evolution of a tropical disturbance currently over the southwest Gulf of America. NHC currently denotes a 50% chance of cyclone development. A weak midlevel trough is also forecast to develop over TX, and move across the Gulf Coast states during the same time. The combination of increasing moisture and shear could result in an area of tornado potential. Any such event is highly conditional on cyclone formation, and potential will continue to be monitored.
From Sun/D7 and beyond, models suggest a western trough may develop, though model spread is high.
..Jewell.. 10/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, October 5
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, October 6
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Wednesday, October 7
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Thursday, October 8
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, October 9
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, October 10
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, October 11
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, October 12
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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