Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, August 29
Outlook Summary
Widely scattered strong to severe storms are expected across parts of the northern Great Basin and northern/central Rockies. Severe wind gusts are the main threat. Isolated severe storms are also possible across portions of the northern Plains, with potential for large hail and damaging wind.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 290554
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NEVADA…NORTHERN UTAH…AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
### SUMMARY
Widely scattered strong to severe storms are expected across parts of the northern Great Basin and northern/central Rockies. Severe wind gusts are the main threat. Isolated severe storms are also possible across portions of the northern Plains, with potential for large hail and damaging wind.
Great Basin/Rockies
An upper low over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to merge with a broad southern steam upper trough over the Great Basin. A belt of enhanced mid-level flow and tropical moisture will overspread the Great Basin and central Rockies. Clouds, showers and some thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing early in the period complicating expectations for diurnal heating and subsequent destabilization. Still, filtered heating should allow for additional storms to develop through the day along a weak front and across the higher terrain from eastern NV into northern UT and the central Rockies. Sufficiently strong unidirectional effective shear profiles and a well-mixed boundary layer will promote a few organized clusters and potentially transient supercell structures capable of severe wind gusts and marginally severe hail.
Four Corners
On the southern fringes of upper trough moving through the Great Basin, strong heating of a monsoon air mass should allow for the development of scattered to numerous thunderstorms across northern AZ and southern UT. Deep-layer flow here will be considerably weaker compared to points farther north, but sight enhancement could still support some clustering of thunderstorms. Steep low/mid-level lapse rates, PWATs over 1 inch and numerous storms may bolster downdrafts. Isolated severe gusts are possible as storms spread eastward into southwestern CO and NM through the afternoon/evening.
Northern Plains.. Several embedded disturbances within the enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will help deepen a lee trough/low across eastern WY and western SD this afternoon. Strengthening southerly upslope flow will advect upper 60s F dewpoints into the region aiding in moderate destabilization. However, widespread mid/upper-level cloud cover and weak overall forcing for ascent cast some uncertainty on storm development through the afternoon. If storms do develop, moderate buoyancy and elongated mid/upper-level hodographs would support supercells with the potential for damaging winds and hail.
The more likely scenario is that high-based convection emanating from central WY will spread eastward late in the afternoon/early evening with the potential for isolated damaging gusts. Some intensification of this convection may occur as it encounters the more unstable air mass into the overnight hours, though CAM solutions are varied.
IA/MN
A remnant cluster of storms or a weakly organized MCS is likely to be ongoing at the start of the period along the front from southwestern MN into northern IA. Driven by strong overnight warm advection at the terminus of the low-level jet, weak buoyancy, but relatively strong deep-layer shear could support an isolated risk for hail or damaging gusts for a couple of hours during the morning. Weakening ascent and increasing mid-level heights should limit the severe risk through the remainder of the day.
Atlantic Coast
Scattered thunderstorms are likely along typical sea breeze boundaries and a weakening front from the Carolinas to FL this afternoon. An unstable, high PWAT, but very weakly sheared air mass will support multicell storms with sporadic wet microburst potential. However, confidence in a more widespread or organized severe risk remains below 5%.
..Lyons/Wendt.. 08/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Sunday, August 30
Outlook Summary
At least isolated severe storms, accompanied by mainly a severe wind and hail threat, are possible across portions of the central and northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 290559
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
### SUMMARY
At least isolated severe storms, accompanied by mainly a severe wind and hail threat, are possible across portions of the central and northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday.
Synopsis
Multiple mid-level impulses will pivot around an upper ridge that will gradually progress across the central and eastern CONUS tomorrow (Sunday). A mid-level shortwave trough will crest the upper ridge and impinge on the northern Plains while a smaller mid-level impulse traverses the Great Lakes and a another shortwave trough ejects into the Atlantic from the Northeast. This upper air pattern will encourage surface lee troughing over the Plains, accompanied by appreciable low-level moisture advection. Through the day, colder temperatures aloft will overspread this low-level moisture, resulting in increased buoyancy coinciding with an increase in deep-layer shear and ascent to support at least isolated severe thunderstorm development. The best chance for any severe storms will be ahead of a cold front and along the warm front over the central/northern Plains to the Upper MS Valley.
Parts of the Upper MS Valley
Thunderstorms are expected to develop along a diffuse warm front by late afternoon across far eastern ND into far northeast SD and western MN. Mid-level lapse rates are not expected to be particularly steep (e.g. 6.5-7 C/km). However, surface dewpoints approaching 70 F will contribute to 1500-2500 J/kg of tall and thin MLCAPE. Coinciding this buoyancy will be a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet beneath an impinging 500 mb wind maximum, yielding sizeable curved and elongated hodographs (e.g. 50 kts of effective bulk shear and over 200 m2/s2 ESRH), especially by sunset. If a couple of supercells manage to develop along the warm front, isolated severe wind/hail and perhaps a tornado or two could occur. The potential for poor lapse rates and westward displacement of the stronger forcing for ascent to the west precludes higher severe probabilities this outlook.
Central to northern Plains
Scattered high-based thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid to late afternoon as the upper trough impinges on the region. Strong flow aloft will overspread a dry boundary layer, which will support relatively fast moving, high-based thunderstorms. Forecast soundings depict a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE amid elongated, straight hodographs, so multicellular storms are expected, accompanied by a sparse severe gust threat.
..Squitieri.. 08/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Monday, August 31
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe thunderstorms, accompanied by wind and hail, are possible Monday afternoon across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 290722
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe thunderstorms, accompanied by wind and hail, are possible Monday afternoon across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley.
Synopsis
A 500 mb anticyclone will become established over the central Plains to the Mid-MS Valley on Monday, with a low-amplitude mid-level shortwave trough poised to crest the ridge and impinge on the Upper MS Valley. A surface trough will become established across the Upper MS Valley/Midwest during the afternoon, promoting enough deep-layer ascent for isolated thunderstorm development when also considering the approach of the upper trough. Additionally, stronger mid-level flow, accompanied by cooler temperatures aloft, will overspread a moist boundary layer, supporting scattered strong to isolated severe thunderstorms over portions of the Upper MS Valley.
Portions of the Upper MS Valley
The aforementioned low-amplitude mid-level trough will impinge on the Upper MS Valley and support surface lee troughing by afternoon. A diffuse warm front may also materialize roughly along the MN/IA border into central WI. An appreciable EML will extend from the central Rockies to the western Great Lakes, with up to 8 C/km mid-level lapse rates possible. These lapse rates will overspread mid 70s F dewpoints, yielding over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE on a widespread basis, especially near the warm front. Given the possibility of an increasing low-level jet beneath 30-50 kt 500 mb flow, elongated hodographs with 40+ kts of effective bulk shear are possible. Such conditions would favor supercellular development, with at least severe wind and hail possible. However, storm coverage remains in question since the strongest deep-layer ascent accompanying the low-amplitude upper trough will only graze the warm frontal zone to the north. Higher severe probabilities may be needed pending greater confidence in higher storm coverage.
..Squitieri.. 08/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Tuesday, September 1
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, September 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, September 2 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Thursday, September 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, September 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, September 5 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290855 SPC AC 290855
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium range guidance consensus depicts a persistent ridge fortified across the central CONUS through the Days 4-8 (Tuesday-Saturday) period. Multiple mid-level shortwave troughs and smaller scale impulses will pivot around the broader upper ridge and traverse the Pacific Northwest to northern Plains, Great Lakes, and Northeast through the week. The best chance for rounds of organized strong to severe thunderstorms will be with impulses overspreading a moist boundary layer from the Upper MS Valley to the southern New England/Mid-Atlantic regions. Details regarding the timing and placement of some of these impulses varies among medium-range guidance, rendering predictability too low for several potential severe scenarios.
Days 4-7 (Tuesday-Friday) - Northeast/Mid-Atlantic
The Northeast to Mid-Atlantic will experience the east-northeast periphery of the aforementioned upper ridge, with multiple impulses expected to overspread the region through the middle of the week. At least isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected each day Tuesday-Friday. At the moment, medium range guidance consensus shows the strongest signal in a mid-level impulse impinging on southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic on Day 5/Wednesday, where severe probabilities have been maintained.
Guidance also depicts these same regions to have adequate vertical wind shear and instability Tuesday and Thursday, perhaps even extending into Day 7/Friday. Like Wednesday, several members of medium range ML/AI generated guidance also has severe probabilities over these regions Days 4-7. Unlike Wednesday though, deterministic medium range guidance varies in place and time of the more subtle impulses expected to support severe weather over the Northeast. It is acknowledged that severe probabilities will likely be needed in the future. However, probabilities have been withheld outside of Wednesday out of prudence given the degree of changes in forecast details expected in the coming days.
..Squitieri.. 08/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, September 2
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, September 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, September 2 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Thursday, September 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, September 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, September 5 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290855 SPC AC 290855
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium range guidance consensus depicts a persistent ridge fortified across the central CONUS through the Days 4-8 (Tuesday-Saturday) period. Multiple mid-level shortwave troughs and smaller scale impulses will pivot around the broader upper ridge and traverse the Pacific Northwest to northern Plains, Great Lakes, and Northeast through the week. The best chance for rounds of organized strong to severe thunderstorms will be with impulses overspreading a moist boundary layer from the Upper MS Valley to the southern New England/Mid-Atlantic regions. Details regarding the timing and placement of some of these impulses varies among medium-range guidance, rendering predictability too low for several potential severe scenarios.
Days 4-7 (Tuesday-Friday) - Northeast/Mid-Atlantic
The Northeast to Mid-Atlantic will experience the east-northeast periphery of the aforementioned upper ridge, with multiple impulses expected to overspread the region through the middle of the week. At least isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected each day Tuesday-Friday. At the moment, medium range guidance consensus shows the strongest signal in a mid-level impulse impinging on southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic on Day 5/Wednesday, where severe probabilities have been maintained.
Guidance also depicts these same regions to have adequate vertical wind shear and instability Tuesday and Thursday, perhaps even extending into Day 7/Friday. Like Wednesday, several members of medium range ML/AI generated guidance also has severe probabilities over these regions Days 4-7. Unlike Wednesday though, deterministic medium range guidance varies in place and time of the more subtle impulses expected to support severe weather over the Northeast. It is acknowledged that severe probabilities will likely be needed in the future. However, probabilities have been withheld outside of Wednesday out of prudence given the degree of changes in forecast details expected in the coming days.
..Squitieri.. 08/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, September 3
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, September 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, September 2 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Thursday, September 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, September 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, September 5 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290855 SPC AC 290855
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium range guidance consensus depicts a persistent ridge fortified across the central CONUS through the Days 4-8 (Tuesday-Saturday) period. Multiple mid-level shortwave troughs and smaller scale impulses will pivot around the broader upper ridge and traverse the Pacific Northwest to northern Plains, Great Lakes, and Northeast through the week. The best chance for rounds of organized strong to severe thunderstorms will be with impulses overspreading a moist boundary layer from the Upper MS Valley to the southern New England/Mid-Atlantic regions. Details regarding the timing and placement of some of these impulses varies among medium-range guidance, rendering predictability too low for several potential severe scenarios.
Days 4-7 (Tuesday-Friday) - Northeast/Mid-Atlantic
The Northeast to Mid-Atlantic will experience the east-northeast periphery of the aforementioned upper ridge, with multiple impulses expected to overspread the region through the middle of the week. At least isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected each day Tuesday-Friday. At the moment, medium range guidance consensus shows the strongest signal in a mid-level impulse impinging on southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic on Day 5/Wednesday, where severe probabilities have been maintained.
Guidance also depicts these same regions to have adequate vertical wind shear and instability Tuesday and Thursday, perhaps even extending into Day 7/Friday. Like Wednesday, several members of medium range ML/AI generated guidance also has severe probabilities over these regions Days 4-7. Unlike Wednesday though, deterministic medium range guidance varies in place and time of the more subtle impulses expected to support severe weather over the Northeast. It is acknowledged that severe probabilities will likely be needed in the future. However, probabilities have been withheld outside of Wednesday out of prudence given the degree of changes in forecast details expected in the coming days.
..Squitieri.. 08/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, September 4
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, September 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, September 2 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Thursday, September 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, September 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, September 5 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290855 SPC AC 290855
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium range guidance consensus depicts a persistent ridge fortified across the central CONUS through the Days 4-8 (Tuesday-Saturday) period. Multiple mid-level shortwave troughs and smaller scale impulses will pivot around the broader upper ridge and traverse the Pacific Northwest to northern Plains, Great Lakes, and Northeast through the week. The best chance for rounds of organized strong to severe thunderstorms will be with impulses overspreading a moist boundary layer from the Upper MS Valley to the southern New England/Mid-Atlantic regions. Details regarding the timing and placement of some of these impulses varies among medium-range guidance, rendering predictability too low for several potential severe scenarios.
Days 4-7 (Tuesday-Friday) - Northeast/Mid-Atlantic
The Northeast to Mid-Atlantic will experience the east-northeast periphery of the aforementioned upper ridge, with multiple impulses expected to overspread the region through the middle of the week. At least isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected each day Tuesday-Friday. At the moment, medium range guidance consensus shows the strongest signal in a mid-level impulse impinging on southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic on Day 5/Wednesday, where severe probabilities have been maintained.
Guidance also depicts these same regions to have adequate vertical wind shear and instability Tuesday and Thursday, perhaps even extending into Day 7/Friday. Like Wednesday, several members of medium range ML/AI generated guidance also has severe probabilities over these regions Days 4-7. Unlike Wednesday though, deterministic medium range guidance varies in place and time of the more subtle impulses expected to support severe weather over the Northeast. It is acknowledged that severe probabilities will likely be needed in the future. However, probabilities have been withheld outside of Wednesday out of prudence given the degree of changes in forecast details expected in the coming days.
..Squitieri.. 08/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, September 5
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, September 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, September 2 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Thursday, September 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, September 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, September 5 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290855 SPC AC 290855
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium range guidance consensus depicts a persistent ridge fortified across the central CONUS through the Days 4-8 (Tuesday-Saturday) period. Multiple mid-level shortwave troughs and smaller scale impulses will pivot around the broader upper ridge and traverse the Pacific Northwest to northern Plains, Great Lakes, and Northeast through the week. The best chance for rounds of organized strong to severe thunderstorms will be with impulses overspreading a moist boundary layer from the Upper MS Valley to the southern New England/Mid-Atlantic regions. Details regarding the timing and placement of some of these impulses varies among medium-range guidance, rendering predictability too low for several potential severe scenarios.
Days 4-7 (Tuesday-Friday) - Northeast/Mid-Atlantic
The Northeast to Mid-Atlantic will experience the east-northeast periphery of the aforementioned upper ridge, with multiple impulses expected to overspread the region through the middle of the week. At least isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected each day Tuesday-Friday. At the moment, medium range guidance consensus shows the strongest signal in a mid-level impulse impinging on southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic on Day 5/Wednesday, where severe probabilities have been maintained.
Guidance also depicts these same regions to have adequate vertical wind shear and instability Tuesday and Thursday, perhaps even extending into Day 7/Friday. Like Wednesday, several members of medium range ML/AI generated guidance also has severe probabilities over these regions Days 4-7. Unlike Wednesday though, deterministic medium range guidance varies in place and time of the more subtle impulses expected to support severe weather over the Northeast. It is acknowledged that severe probabilities will likely be needed in the future. However, probabilities have been withheld outside of Wednesday out of prudence given the degree of changes in forecast details expected in the coming days.
..Squitieri.. 08/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, August 29
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Sunday, August 30
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Monday, August 31
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Tuesday, September 1
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, September 2
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Thursday, September 3
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, September 4
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, September 5
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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