Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Friday, July 24

Saturday, July 25

Sunday, July 26

Monday, July 27

Tuesday, July 28

Wednesday, July 29

Thursday, July 30

Friday, July 31

Outlook for Friday, July 24

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado risk are expected this afternoon and evening across portions of North Dakota into northern Minnesota.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 5%

wind 15%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 242000

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Valid 242000Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado risk are expected this afternoon and evening across portions of North Dakota into northern Minnesota.

20z Update Northern Plains/Upper Midwest

Scattered thunderstorms ongoing along a differential heating axis near the international border should continue to increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon. Aided by increasing synoptic ascent and deep-layer shear from the approaching upstream low-amplitude trough and jet, supercells and organized clusters are likely. Severe hail is expected, with some 2-3+ inches in diameter possible with the more robust supercells that evolve initially. Damaging wind gusts are also likely across eastern ND into northern MN as storms begin to grow upscale. A few significant gusts are possible given the large buoyancy and plume of steeper low-level lapse rates apparent to the southwest across ND.

A couple of tornadoes are possible closer to the effective boundary, where lower temperature-dewpoint spreads and stronger low-level shear are expected. A CIG-1 wind area was included where the latest HRRR/RRFS time-lagged runs show greater clustering which could promote a sustained damaging wind or hail threat into this evening. See MCD#1622 for short-term information.

Carolinas

Scattered thunderstorms along a weak surface cold front and sea-breeze boundary across the coast and coastal plain will continue to pose a risk for isolated damaging gusts this afternoon. 5% wind probabilities were trimmed slightly to the west where storm coverage/clustering are expected to be lower.

Elsewhere, the prior forecast remains valid with no changes. Isolated severe wind gusts are possible over parts of TX, AZ and ID. See the previous discussion and active mesoscale discussions for more information.

..Lyons.. 07/24/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026/

Dakotas/northern Minnesota

Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows a thin stratus shield across central into northern MN ahead of a cluster of thunderstorms over southern Manitoba. This thunderstorm activity is associated with a weak mid-level vorticity max embedded within an amplifying northwest-flow pattern over the Upper Midwest. A surface trough extends southwestward into ND from a cyclone moving east along the south shore of Hudson Bay.

A plume of relatively steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread a warm and moist boundary layer along/east of the surface trough, with MLCAPE increasing above 2000 J/kg across parts of North Dakota into northern Minnesota by late afternoon. Forecast model soundings show elongated hodographs thereby promoting storm organization, including supercells and eventually a small cluster or two. Morning models continue to indicate widely scattered (ND) to scattered storm development (MN) later this afternoon into the evening. Large to very large hail is possible with the supercells (1 to 3 inches in diameter). Some tornado risk will likely focus across northern MN where lower temperature-dewpoint spreads and enlarged hodographs become co-located for a few hours. Any organized clustering could result in localized corridors of greater severe-wind potential. Some severe threat could persist as storms move into a larger portion of northern/central Minnesota through late evening, with a general weakening trend expected overnight due to increasing CINH and weakening buoyancy.

Farther northwest, some guidance depicts isolated supercell development west of the surface trough across the Canadian Prairies during the late afternoon, which could then move into parts of northern/central North Dakota within a northwesterly flow regime.

Eastern ID into northeast NV

A weak disturbance evident in water-vapor imagery will continue to move northeast over northern UT into southeast ID this afternoon along the periphery of the Four Corners upper ridge. Widely scattered high-based storms will likely develop by late afternoon. Forecast soundings show inverted-V profiles supporting ample evaporative cooling with the stronger downdrafts. Isolated severe gusts 60-70 mph are possible.

Southern High Plains vicinity

On the western periphery of residual early day precipitation/cloud cover, a nearly stationary front draped from eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandles is expected to become a focus for thunderstorm development by late afternoon and early evening. While deep-layer winds will be weak, strong boundary-layer heating/mixing will support potential for localized downbursts.

Southeast AZ

Isolated to widely scattered storms are forecast to develop late this afternoon and slowly propagate westward. A couple of the stronger high-based downdrafts may yield a risk for severe gusts for a few hours before this activity dissipates by late evening.

Coastal Carolinas

Near/south of a residual front, relatively strong heating of a moisture-rich airmass will result in the development of moderate buoyancy across the Carolina coastal plain. Scattered storm development is expected by early/mid afternoon. A couple of stronger water-loaded downdrafts may be capable of a localized wind-damage risk.

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

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Outlook for Saturday, July 25

Outlook Summary

Isolated severe storms will be possible from the northern Rockies into the upper Midwest, and across portions of southeast Arizona.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 5%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 241733

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST…AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA

### SUMMARY

Isolated severe storms will be possible from the northern Rockies into the upper Midwest, and across portions of southeast Arizona.

Synopsis

A belt of enhanced mid-level flow will move around the northern periphery of the high amplitude ridge across the central US D2/Saturday. Southwesterly mid-level flow will overspread portions of the northern Rockies, with more northwesterly flow shifting across the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes Region. At the surface, a weak front will extend from a surface low over the northern and central Plains to the Southeast coastal areas.

Northern Rockies

Deeply mixed boundary layer conditions are expected across the Northern Rockies amid dry sub-cloud inverted-v soundings and steep low to mid level lapse rates. Scattered afternoon thunderstorm development is expected across the high terrain. Moderate instability is progged along with strong deep layer shear, which may support isolated stronger cells with potential for strong to severe wind gusts.

South Dakota and the Upper Midwest to the Great Lakes

Strong daytime heating is expected across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Region. Daytime temperatures are progged to possibly exceed 100 F south of the weak front from the Dakotas into the Upper Midwest. With the building high amplitude ridge, warming around the 850-700 mb level will result in capping across much of the more strongly unstable air mass. It does appear that portions of northern/central Minnesota into northern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan may see enough weakening of the cap to allow for isolated thunderstorm development by the afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest veering wind profiles favorable for supercells. Strong deep layer shear and linearly elongated profiles will support large to very large hail and damaging wind. Though low-level shear is more marginal, low tornado potential will exist.

Additional isolated thunderstorms may develop near the Black Hills in South Dakota. Very hot and moderately unstable conditions are expected amid steep low to mid-level lapse rates. Isolated supercells capable of large hail and damaging wind will be possible, with potential for some clustering downstream and increase in damaging wind potential into the evening.

Southeast Arizona

The favorable position of the surface high across the Four Corners will bring moist easterly flow across southeastern Arizona. Some enhancement of the easterly flow will allow for modest shear profiles. It is likely that storms will develop across the high terrain and move into the low deserts through the afternoon/evening. Deeply mixed profiles and modest shear for organization will support potential for strong to severe winds.

..Thornton.. 07/24/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Sunday, July 26

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms capable of mainly large hail and damaging winds are possible from the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes into portions of the mid Missouri Valley on Sunday and Sunday night.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 241928

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO UPPER MIDWEST

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms capable of mainly large hail and damaging winds are possible from the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes into portions of the mid Missouri Valley on Sunday and Sunday night.

Synopsis

Enhanced mid-level flow will round the central US ridge D3/Sunday, overspreading portions of the Midwest and Great Lakes regions. Along with the increasing flow, several shortwave disturbances will shift across the region. At the surface, a low will develop across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest with a surface front moving through the northern Plains/Midwest by the evening.

Upper Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes

Beneath strong upper-level ridging and a very moist air mass with dew points in the 60s to mid 70s, an EML plume will advect eastward across the High Plains into the Midwest/Great Lakes region. This will result in a very volatile and strongly unstable but largely capped air mass. While forcing for ascent will increase, lack of discernible surface features and strength of the capping inversion leads to low confidence in the exact evolution of thunderstorm development. Hi-res guidance does suggest that a few isolated supercells may develop. A conditional threat for large to very large hail, damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado will exist with any storms that can become rooted within the boundary layer, given the presence of 35-50 kt deep-layer shear and the favorable unstable air mass.

As the front shifts south and east through the afternoon/evening and forcing for ascent increases, storms may develop as far west as the eastern Dakotas/Nebraska. It seems probable that a thunderstorm complex could develop across some portion of the upper Mississippi Valley, though confidence in the exact corridor remains low. This will pose a conditional threat for a more focused corridor of damaging wind potential.

..Thornton.. 07/24/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Monday, July 27

Outlook Images

any severe 15%

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, July 27	15%
Day 5	Tuesday, July 28	15%
Day 6	Wednesday, July 29	predictability too low
Day 7	Thursday, July 30	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, July 31	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240837 SPC AC 240837

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Monday

A prominent upper high will remain centered over the central and southern Plains with a belt of enhanced mid-level flow forecast along the periphery of that feature from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes. Within that flow regime, a short-wave trough is forecast to translate through the Great Lakes in tandem with a surface low and trailing cold front. A hot and moist boundary layer is expected ahead of the front, yielding moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Despite veered low-level winds, strengthening mid/upper-level winds in the exit region of a jet streak will contribute to sufficient vertical shear for organized severe storms across portions of the Great Lakes into the OH Valley Monday afternoon into night.

### Day 5/Tuesday

The Day 4/Monday short-wave trough is forecast to evolve into an upper low across southwest ON and the lower Great Lakes with an associated belt of stronger cyclonic flow developing from the OH Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic and NC. At the surface, an area of low pressure will develop from the lower Great Lakes into central NY with a trailing cold front advancing through the upper OH Valley, central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic.

Thunderstorms may be ongoing Tuesday morning along and ahead of the front from the lower Great Lakes and upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Stronger heating is anticipated to the south of the early-day storms from the southern Mid-Atlantic into NC, where moderate to potentially strong instability is forecast. The strongest instability will coincide with modestly strong deep-layer shear to support some severe weather threat in those areas Tuesday afternoon and evening.

### Days 6-8/Wednesday-Friday

The 00Z ensemble means depict a slight westward regression of the dominant mid/upper-level high with persistent troughing along the East Coast. On the periphery of the high, a notable short-wave trough is forecast to progress from the Canadian Rockies on Wednesday through the Prairie Provinces on Thursday with modest height falls along the international border. By Friday, there is some model signal for another short-wave trough to move into the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes regions. At the surface, a more substantial cold front is projected to move into the northern Plains on Thursday, and the upper Midwest and Great Lakes by Friday.

A few severe storms appear possible in the Southeast and northern Plains on Wednesday, the northern Plains on Thursday, and the upper Midwest into the Great Lakes on Friday. Confidence in the magnitude and areal extent of the threat is currently too low to delineate additional areas.

..Mead.. 07/24/2026

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Outlook for Tuesday, July 28

Outlook Images

any severe 15%

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, July 27	15%
Day 5	Tuesday, July 28	15%
Day 6	Wednesday, July 29	predictability too low
Day 7	Thursday, July 30	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, July 31	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240837 SPC AC 240837

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Monday

A prominent upper high will remain centered over the central and southern Plains with a belt of enhanced mid-level flow forecast along the periphery of that feature from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes. Within that flow regime, a short-wave trough is forecast to translate through the Great Lakes in tandem with a surface low and trailing cold front. A hot and moist boundary layer is expected ahead of the front, yielding moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Despite veered low-level winds, strengthening mid/upper-level winds in the exit region of a jet streak will contribute to sufficient vertical shear for organized severe storms across portions of the Great Lakes into the OH Valley Monday afternoon into night.

### Day 5/Tuesday

The Day 4/Monday short-wave trough is forecast to evolve into an upper low across southwest ON and the lower Great Lakes with an associated belt of stronger cyclonic flow developing from the OH Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic and NC. At the surface, an area of low pressure will develop from the lower Great Lakes into central NY with a trailing cold front advancing through the upper OH Valley, central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic.

Thunderstorms may be ongoing Tuesday morning along and ahead of the front from the lower Great Lakes and upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Stronger heating is anticipated to the south of the early-day storms from the southern Mid-Atlantic into NC, where moderate to potentially strong instability is forecast. The strongest instability will coincide with modestly strong deep-layer shear to support some severe weather threat in those areas Tuesday afternoon and evening.

### Days 6-8/Wednesday-Friday

The 00Z ensemble means depict a slight westward regression of the dominant mid/upper-level high with persistent troughing along the East Coast. On the periphery of the high, a notable short-wave trough is forecast to progress from the Canadian Rockies on Wednesday through the Prairie Provinces on Thursday with modest height falls along the international border. By Friday, there is some model signal for another short-wave trough to move into the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes regions. At the surface, a more substantial cold front is projected to move into the northern Plains on Thursday, and the upper Midwest and Great Lakes by Friday.

A few severe storms appear possible in the Southeast and northern Plains on Wednesday, the northern Plains on Thursday, and the upper Midwest into the Great Lakes on Friday. Confidence in the magnitude and areal extent of the threat is currently too low to delineate additional areas.

..Mead.. 07/24/2026

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Outlook for Wednesday, July 29

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, July 27	15%
Day 5	Tuesday, July 28	15%
Day 6	Wednesday, July 29	predictability too low
Day 7	Thursday, July 30	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, July 31	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240837 SPC AC 240837

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Monday

A prominent upper high will remain centered over the central and southern Plains with a belt of enhanced mid-level flow forecast along the periphery of that feature from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes. Within that flow regime, a short-wave trough is forecast to translate through the Great Lakes in tandem with a surface low and trailing cold front. A hot and moist boundary layer is expected ahead of the front, yielding moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Despite veered low-level winds, strengthening mid/upper-level winds in the exit region of a jet streak will contribute to sufficient vertical shear for organized severe storms across portions of the Great Lakes into the OH Valley Monday afternoon into night.

### Day 5/Tuesday

The Day 4/Monday short-wave trough is forecast to evolve into an upper low across southwest ON and the lower Great Lakes with an associated belt of stronger cyclonic flow developing from the OH Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic and NC. At the surface, an area of low pressure will develop from the lower Great Lakes into central NY with a trailing cold front advancing through the upper OH Valley, central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic.

Thunderstorms may be ongoing Tuesday morning along and ahead of the front from the lower Great Lakes and upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Stronger heating is anticipated to the south of the early-day storms from the southern Mid-Atlantic into NC, where moderate to potentially strong instability is forecast. The strongest instability will coincide with modestly strong deep-layer shear to support some severe weather threat in those areas Tuesday afternoon and evening.

### Days 6-8/Wednesday-Friday

The 00Z ensemble means depict a slight westward regression of the dominant mid/upper-level high with persistent troughing along the East Coast. On the periphery of the high, a notable short-wave trough is forecast to progress from the Canadian Rockies on Wednesday through the Prairie Provinces on Thursday with modest height falls along the international border. By Friday, there is some model signal for another short-wave trough to move into the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes regions. At the surface, a more substantial cold front is projected to move into the northern Plains on Thursday, and the upper Midwest and Great Lakes by Friday.

A few severe storms appear possible in the Southeast and northern Plains on Wednesday, the northern Plains on Thursday, and the upper Midwest into the Great Lakes on Friday. Confidence in the magnitude and areal extent of the threat is currently too low to delineate additional areas.

..Mead.. 07/24/2026

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Outlook for Thursday, July 30

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, July 27	15%
Day 5	Tuesday, July 28	15%
Day 6	Wednesday, July 29	predictability too low
Day 7	Thursday, July 30	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, July 31	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240837 SPC AC 240837

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Monday

A prominent upper high will remain centered over the central and southern Plains with a belt of enhanced mid-level flow forecast along the periphery of that feature from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes. Within that flow regime, a short-wave trough is forecast to translate through the Great Lakes in tandem with a surface low and trailing cold front. A hot and moist boundary layer is expected ahead of the front, yielding moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Despite veered low-level winds, strengthening mid/upper-level winds in the exit region of a jet streak will contribute to sufficient vertical shear for organized severe storms across portions of the Great Lakes into the OH Valley Monday afternoon into night.

### Day 5/Tuesday

The Day 4/Monday short-wave trough is forecast to evolve into an upper low across southwest ON and the lower Great Lakes with an associated belt of stronger cyclonic flow developing from the OH Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic and NC. At the surface, an area of low pressure will develop from the lower Great Lakes into central NY with a trailing cold front advancing through the upper OH Valley, central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic.

Thunderstorms may be ongoing Tuesday morning along and ahead of the front from the lower Great Lakes and upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Stronger heating is anticipated to the south of the early-day storms from the southern Mid-Atlantic into NC, where moderate to potentially strong instability is forecast. The strongest instability will coincide with modestly strong deep-layer shear to support some severe weather threat in those areas Tuesday afternoon and evening.

### Days 6-8/Wednesday-Friday

The 00Z ensemble means depict a slight westward regression of the dominant mid/upper-level high with persistent troughing along the East Coast. On the periphery of the high, a notable short-wave trough is forecast to progress from the Canadian Rockies on Wednesday through the Prairie Provinces on Thursday with modest height falls along the international border. By Friday, there is some model signal for another short-wave trough to move into the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes regions. At the surface, a more substantial cold front is projected to move into the northern Plains on Thursday, and the upper Midwest and Great Lakes by Friday.

A few severe storms appear possible in the Southeast and northern Plains on Wednesday, the northern Plains on Thursday, and the upper Midwest into the Great Lakes on Friday. Confidence in the magnitude and areal extent of the threat is currently too low to delineate additional areas.

..Mead.. 07/24/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Friday, July 31

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, July 27	15%
Day 5	Tuesday, July 28	15%
Day 6	Wednesday, July 29	predictability too low
Day 7	Thursday, July 30	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, July 31	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240837 SPC AC 240837

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Monday

A prominent upper high will remain centered over the central and southern Plains with a belt of enhanced mid-level flow forecast along the periphery of that feature from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes. Within that flow regime, a short-wave trough is forecast to translate through the Great Lakes in tandem with a surface low and trailing cold front. A hot and moist boundary layer is expected ahead of the front, yielding moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Despite veered low-level winds, strengthening mid/upper-level winds in the exit region of a jet streak will contribute to sufficient vertical shear for organized severe storms across portions of the Great Lakes into the OH Valley Monday afternoon into night.

### Day 5/Tuesday

The Day 4/Monday short-wave trough is forecast to evolve into an upper low across southwest ON and the lower Great Lakes with an associated belt of stronger cyclonic flow developing from the OH Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic and NC. At the surface, an area of low pressure will develop from the lower Great Lakes into central NY with a trailing cold front advancing through the upper OH Valley, central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic.

Thunderstorms may be ongoing Tuesday morning along and ahead of the front from the lower Great Lakes and upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Stronger heating is anticipated to the south of the early-day storms from the southern Mid-Atlantic into NC, where moderate to potentially strong instability is forecast. The strongest instability will coincide with modestly strong deep-layer shear to support some severe weather threat in those areas Tuesday afternoon and evening.

### Days 6-8/Wednesday-Friday

The 00Z ensemble means depict a slight westward regression of the dominant mid/upper-level high with persistent troughing along the East Coast. On the periphery of the high, a notable short-wave trough is forecast to progress from the Canadian Rockies on Wednesday through the Prairie Provinces on Thursday with modest height falls along the international border. By Friday, there is some model signal for another short-wave trough to move into the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes regions. At the surface, a more substantial cold front is projected to move into the northern Plains on Thursday, and the upper Midwest and Great Lakes by Friday.

A few severe storms appear possible in the Southeast and northern Plains on Wednesday, the northern Plains on Thursday, and the upper Midwest into the Great Lakes on Friday. Confidence in the magnitude and areal extent of the threat is currently too low to delineate additional areas.

..Mead.. 07/24/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Friday, July 24: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Saturday, July 25: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Sunday, July 26: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Monday, July 27: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Tuesday, July 28: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Wednesday, July 29: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, July 30: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, July 31: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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