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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Sunday, June 7

Outlook Summary

A bow echo with 60-100 mph gusts appears likely over the northern High Plains into the Dakotas this afternoon, with a few instances of severe hail and isolated tornadoes also possible. A couple of tornadoes and isolated damaging gusts are still possible across the Ozarks region.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 072000

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026

Valid 072000Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA…EXTREME NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA…WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA,

### THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI AND FAR NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS

### SUMMARY

A bow echo with 60-100 mph gusts appears likely over the northern High Plains into the Dakotas this afternoon, with a few instances of severe hail and isolated tornadoes also possible. A couple of tornadoes and isolated damaging gusts are still possible across the Ozarks region.

20Z Update

A Category 4/Moderate Risk was introduced to portions of the northern High Plains. Confidence is increasing in a well-defined cold-pool-driven bow echo MCS developing across portions of the northern High Plains later this afternoon. A potentially dense swath of 60-100 mph gusts appears likely, and a derecho may occur. Current observations depict a near stationary surface boundary across far southeastern MT northeastward into western ND along an elongated surface trough. High-resolution deterministic and ensemble guidance (including HREF, REFS, and some of the latest WoFS runs) all depict a classic bow echo MCS traversing this surface boundary, accompanied by a widespread severe wind swath and scattered 75+ mph gusts. The MCS would benefit from localized vorticity along this boundary, which in turn could support book-end vortices and the subsequent development and sustenance of a rear-inflow jet, lending plausibility to the guidance consensus. Latest mesoanalysis also shows continued eroding MLCINH and 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE in place. Low- to mid-level lapse rates are already exceeding 8 C/km in some spots, coinciding with 50-60 kts of sfc-8 km bulk shear oriented normal to the anticipated bow echo leading line, which is favorable for derecho development. Alternatively, multiple severe-wind producing multicellular clusters may occur, which would support higher coverage of severe winds (with gusts occasionally exceeding 75 mph).

Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track, with only minor changes made to thunder and severe probabilities to reflect the latest observations.

..Squitieri.. 06/07/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026/

MT/WY/Dakotas

Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a strong upper trough over the northwestern CONUS and it is forecast to pivot eastward through the northern High Plains through tonight. Surface mesoanalysis placed a low near the MT/ND/SD border with a frontal zone draped southwest to northeast from northeastern WY into far western ND. Cyclogenesis and strong heating/moistening of the boundary layer will favor storm development by mid afternoon in the vicinity of the Big Horns. Relatively steep low-level lapse rates on the immediate cool side of the frontal zone and moderate CAPE values will support a risk of large hail and severe wind gusts once storms begin to mature. A linear cluster is expected to evolve during the late afternoon into potentially a bow echo during the early evening with the severe-wind risk notably increasing and becoming more widespread. Have increased the intensity highlight from southeast MT into western portions of ND where it seems increasingly probable a swath of intense gusts —possibly a bow echo— is progged by a diverse array of different model cores/runs this morning. This model signal appears reasonable given the co-location of surface features, lapse rates, and upper-level support. It is within this mesoscale corridor that localized peak gusts may range 85-100 mph. Considered an upgrade to Moderate Risk but will defer to the 20 UTC outlook for additional model run-to-run continuity and confidence in mesoscale environmental features. This activity will sweep northeastward during the evening with a gradual lessening of the wind/hail hazard towards the early overnight as it moves east into the eastern half of the Dakotas late.

Ozarks

A weak trough/low over the central US with embedded disturbances from OK into IA continues to drift northeastward late this morning. An associated band of 30-40 knot southwesterly mid-level winds and deep moisture will lie across the Ozark plateau this afternoon. The 12 UTC Springfield, MO raob sampled this belt of stronger flow with 80-kt at 200 mb. Heating of a very moist airmass with some minor enlargement of low-level hodographs may result a few weak supercells developing coincident with peak heating. A couple of brief tornadoes and isolated damaging gusts are possible with this activity.

Eastern VA/NC

A weak surface cold front is sagging southward across central VA this morning. A combination of strong heating and frontal forcing will lead to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across southeast VA and northeast NC. The strongest of these cells could produce gusty winds.

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

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Outlook for Monday, June 8

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and perhaps a brief tornado and damaging gusts are possible Monday afternoon and evening in northeast Colorado, southeast Wyoming, and into the Nebraska Panhandle. Additional, more isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging winds will be possible from the Canadian border into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. Sporadic damaging winds may occur from the Ozark Plateau into the Mid-south.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 071732

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and perhaps a brief tornado and damaging gusts are possible Monday afternoon and evening in northeast Colorado, southeast Wyoming, and into the Nebraska Panhandle. Additional, more isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging winds will be possible from the Canadian border into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. Sporadic damaging winds may occur from the Ozark Plateau into the Mid-south.

Synopsis

An upper low will pivot northward across central Canada with temporary height rises over the Plains. Moderate southwest flow aloft will persist from the central Rockies into the northern Plains during the day as an area of high pressure modifies there. To the south, low pressure will develop from the central to southern High Plains, with surface winds veering to easterly over KS/NE and into eastern CO and WY late. Ample moisture will exist with the zone of backed easterly flow, and this moist/unstable air mass will accelerate westward during the evening as 850 winds increase ahead of a secondary wave moving into the Rockies overnight. A weak surface trough will also remain over the mid MO Valley, just east of the western Dakotas surface high.

Elsewhere, a weak midlevel wave will persist into the middle MS and lower OH Valleys, providing a focus for thunderstorms within the moist air mass.

Central Plains

An area of moderate instability will develop across the central Plains as strong heating occurs and low-level winds increase out of the east. Storms are most likely to develop near the higher terrain from eastern WY into eastern CO, and on the interface of the steeper low-level lapse rates and moistening/upslope air mass. Favorable effective shear near 50 kt and steep lapse rates will clearly favor supercells initially with large damaging hail, with areas of wind-driven hail as storms evolve eastward through early evening. Low-level winds veering height may also support a brief tornado or two. The most concentrated area of severe storms will be from northeast CO into western NE, but sporadic cells may occur as far north as the Black Hills area. Finally, a few cells may develop within the hot inverted-v environment into the TX Panhandle/western OK during the afternoon with locally damaging gusts.

..Far Northern Plains

Late Monday night into Tuesday morning, warm/moist advection will accelerate ahead of the developing trough over the Rockies. Models are a bit uncertain, but potential will exist for elevated storms with hail potential over eastern MT into northwest MN as lift and instability increase.

Southeast MO into western TN

A slow-moving midlevel trough should again provide a focus for storm development, as deep moisture is maintained and areas of heating occur. New development is most likely to occur with any existing MCV, or near differential heating zones. Locally strong low-level shear is anticipated which may aid brief/weak tornado potential.

..Jewell.. 06/07/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, June 9

Outlook Summary

Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely to develop across parts of the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley Tuesday afternoon and into the night. Several strong tornadoes, very large hail and damaging winds will be possible. Elsewhere, isolated to widely scattered severe storms may also occur across the central Plains, with a risk for large hail and damaging winds.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 071941

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA

### SUMMARY

Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely to develop across parts of the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley Tuesday afternoon and into the night. Several strong tornadoes, very large hail and damaging winds will be possible. Elsewhere, isolated to widely scattered severe storms may also occur across the central Plains, with a risk for large hail and damaging winds.

Dakotas into western Minnesota

Significant severe storms are likely Tuesday afternoon and evening, with the greatest strong tornado potential across northern and eastern North Dakota into far northwest Minnesota and across the international border.

A progressive shortwave trough will move out of the Rockies and across the northern Plains, with a 40-50 kt midlevel speed max and cooling aloft. Low pressure will develop into ND, and move into southern Manitoba through 00Z. Importantly, a substantial warm front is forecast to move through the area, with a rapid increase in dewpoints and instability. There appears to be minimal failure mode for the triple point/warm front, with little if any precipitation forecast ahead of it, and a dry air mass north of it with some capping. A low-level jet will also increase late in the day with 40-50 kt out of the due south at 850 mb. All this will combine to produce a dynamic and potentially dangerous scenario for parts of North Dakota, and/or perhaps near or just north of the Canadian border. The steep lapse rates aloft, and favorable wind profiles near and northeast of the surface low may conditionally favor stronger tornadoes. However, given the setup is three days out, will maintain Enhanced Risk with CIG1 due to uncertainties.

Otherwise, the entire warm sector extending into SD and western MN will also be conducive to supercells and eventual bowing structures with tornadoes, very large hail and damaging winds.

Other severe storms may occur into the central Plains as well with hail and wind. Substantial instability will also extend southeastward into IL and surrounding areas, with more of a conditional risk of isolated afternoon storms as lift will be weaker in these areas.

..Jewell.. 06/07/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, June 10

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070841 SPC AC 070841

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

DISCUSSION

Day4/Wednesday

A concentrated area of potentially significant severe weather is expected Wednesday afternoon and evening, centered across portions of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa.

A number of the deterministic models have trended slightly faster with the progression of a lead short-wave trough and associated jet streak through the northern Plains into upper MS Valley. At the surface, low pressure initially over eastern SD is forecast to develop northeast along a cold front moving from the eastern Dakotas into MN. The trailing extension of the boundary is expected to move more slowly into the mid MO Valley before stalling in response to a deepening cyclone over the central High Plains.

Steep lapse rates and a very moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate to strong instability across the warm sector, with initial storms potentially developing by early afternoon from the Red River Valley into central MN. Subsequent storms are likely to develop across southern MN into IA and northern MO by mid to late afternoon. The models indicate 40+ kt deep-layer shear across the warm sector, supportive of supercells and bowing structures, capable of all severe-weather hazards. The severe-weather threat is expected to spread east through the upper Midwest during the evening hours.

### Day 5/Thursday

Both the ensemble mean and deterministic models indicate the development of a prominent mid-level low over Manitoba or northwest Ontario, with a potent short-wave trough moving through the base of that feature from the upper MS Valley through the upper Great Lakes. A belt of unseasonably strong mid-level winds will attend the short-wave trough from the central Plains into upper Great Lakes. At the surface, ensemble member clustering and the deterministic models indicate the primary low pressure over Ontario, with some signal for a secondary cyclone/frontal wave developing from the mid MO Valley into upper Midwest during the day. The associated surface front is forecast to advance through the upper Midwest into upper Great Lakes, with the trailing extension of the boundary moving into the mid MS Valley and southern Plains.

The presence of moderate to strong instability across the pre-frontal warm sector suggests the potential for severe storms from the upper Midwest into southern Plains. Within that broader envelope, a potentially more concentrated area of severe weather may materialize from parts of the upper Midwest into mid MS Valley during the afternoon and evening hours. There, the most favorable overlap of the forcing for ascent, sufficient vertical shear, and ample instability are expected to reside.

### Day 6/Friday

The ensembles and majority of deterministic models indicate the Day5/Thursday upper Great lakes short-wave trough will lift northeast into Ontario and Quebec. At the surface, the models suggest that a weakening cold front will advance into the Northeast and through the OH Valley. Some severe-weather threat could develop along the front by afternoon; however, the models suggest that the boundary will become increasingly displaced from the strongest mid-level winds and associated vertical shear. Isolated severe storms also appear possible in the vicinity of a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains.

### Days 7-8/Saturday and Sunday

The ensemble mean solutions indicate some potential for mid-level troughing to develop from the northern Rockies into northern Plains next weekend, which is supported by a number of the deterministic models. At the surface, there are indications that a frontal system may stretch from the upper Midwest or Great Lakes into central High Plains, where some severe-weather threat could develop.

..Mead.. 06/07/2026

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Outlook for Thursday, June 11

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070841 SPC AC 070841

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

DISCUSSION

Day4/Wednesday

A concentrated area of potentially significant severe weather is expected Wednesday afternoon and evening, centered across portions of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa.

A number of the deterministic models have trended slightly faster with the progression of a lead short-wave trough and associated jet streak through the northern Plains into upper MS Valley. At the surface, low pressure initially over eastern SD is forecast to develop northeast along a cold front moving from the eastern Dakotas into MN. The trailing extension of the boundary is expected to move more slowly into the mid MO Valley before stalling in response to a deepening cyclone over the central High Plains.

Steep lapse rates and a very moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate to strong instability across the warm sector, with initial storms potentially developing by early afternoon from the Red River Valley into central MN. Subsequent storms are likely to develop across southern MN into IA and northern MO by mid to late afternoon. The models indicate 40+ kt deep-layer shear across the warm sector, supportive of supercells and bowing structures, capable of all severe-weather hazards. The severe-weather threat is expected to spread east through the upper Midwest during the evening hours.

### Day 5/Thursday

Both the ensemble mean and deterministic models indicate the development of a prominent mid-level low over Manitoba or northwest Ontario, with a potent short-wave trough moving through the base of that feature from the upper MS Valley through the upper Great Lakes. A belt of unseasonably strong mid-level winds will attend the short-wave trough from the central Plains into upper Great Lakes. At the surface, ensemble member clustering and the deterministic models indicate the primary low pressure over Ontario, with some signal for a secondary cyclone/frontal wave developing from the mid MO Valley into upper Midwest during the day. The associated surface front is forecast to advance through the upper Midwest into upper Great Lakes, with the trailing extension of the boundary moving into the mid MS Valley and southern Plains.

The presence of moderate to strong instability across the pre-frontal warm sector suggests the potential for severe storms from the upper Midwest into southern Plains. Within that broader envelope, a potentially more concentrated area of severe weather may materialize from parts of the upper Midwest into mid MS Valley during the afternoon and evening hours. There, the most favorable overlap of the forcing for ascent, sufficient vertical shear, and ample instability are expected to reside.

### Day 6/Friday

The ensembles and majority of deterministic models indicate the Day5/Thursday upper Great lakes short-wave trough will lift northeast into Ontario and Quebec. At the surface, the models suggest that a weakening cold front will advance into the Northeast and through the OH Valley. Some severe-weather threat could develop along the front by afternoon; however, the models suggest that the boundary will become increasingly displaced from the strongest mid-level winds and associated vertical shear. Isolated severe storms also appear possible in the vicinity of a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains.

### Days 7-8/Saturday and Sunday

The ensemble mean solutions indicate some potential for mid-level troughing to develop from the northern Rockies into northern Plains next weekend, which is supported by a number of the deterministic models. At the surface, there are indications that a frontal system may stretch from the upper Midwest or Great Lakes into central High Plains, where some severe-weather threat could develop.

..Mead.. 06/07/2026

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Outlook for Friday, June 12

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070841 SPC AC 070841

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

DISCUSSION

Day4/Wednesday

A concentrated area of potentially significant severe weather is expected Wednesday afternoon and evening, centered across portions of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa.

A number of the deterministic models have trended slightly faster with the progression of a lead short-wave trough and associated jet streak through the northern Plains into upper MS Valley. At the surface, low pressure initially over eastern SD is forecast to develop northeast along a cold front moving from the eastern Dakotas into MN. The trailing extension of the boundary is expected to move more slowly into the mid MO Valley before stalling in response to a deepening cyclone over the central High Plains.

Steep lapse rates and a very moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate to strong instability across the warm sector, with initial storms potentially developing by early afternoon from the Red River Valley into central MN. Subsequent storms are likely to develop across southern MN into IA and northern MO by mid to late afternoon. The models indicate 40+ kt deep-layer shear across the warm sector, supportive of supercells and bowing structures, capable of all severe-weather hazards. The severe-weather threat is expected to spread east through the upper Midwest during the evening hours.

### Day 5/Thursday

Both the ensemble mean and deterministic models indicate the development of a prominent mid-level low over Manitoba or northwest Ontario, with a potent short-wave trough moving through the base of that feature from the upper MS Valley through the upper Great Lakes. A belt of unseasonably strong mid-level winds will attend the short-wave trough from the central Plains into upper Great Lakes. At the surface, ensemble member clustering and the deterministic models indicate the primary low pressure over Ontario, with some signal for a secondary cyclone/frontal wave developing from the mid MO Valley into upper Midwest during the day. The associated surface front is forecast to advance through the upper Midwest into upper Great Lakes, with the trailing extension of the boundary moving into the mid MS Valley and southern Plains.

The presence of moderate to strong instability across the pre-frontal warm sector suggests the potential for severe storms from the upper Midwest into southern Plains. Within that broader envelope, a potentially more concentrated area of severe weather may materialize from parts of the upper Midwest into mid MS Valley during the afternoon and evening hours. There, the most favorable overlap of the forcing for ascent, sufficient vertical shear, and ample instability are expected to reside.

### Day 6/Friday

The ensembles and majority of deterministic models indicate the Day5/Thursday upper Great lakes short-wave trough will lift northeast into Ontario and Quebec. At the surface, the models suggest that a weakening cold front will advance into the Northeast and through the OH Valley. Some severe-weather threat could develop along the front by afternoon; however, the models suggest that the boundary will become increasingly displaced from the strongest mid-level winds and associated vertical shear. Isolated severe storms also appear possible in the vicinity of a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains.

### Days 7-8/Saturday and Sunday

The ensemble mean solutions indicate some potential for mid-level troughing to develop from the northern Rockies into northern Plains next weekend, which is supported by a number of the deterministic models. At the surface, there are indications that a frontal system may stretch from the upper Midwest or Great Lakes into central High Plains, where some severe-weather threat could develop.

..Mead.. 06/07/2026

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Outlook for Saturday, June 13

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070841 SPC AC 070841

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

DISCUSSION

Day4/Wednesday

A concentrated area of potentially significant severe weather is expected Wednesday afternoon and evening, centered across portions of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa.

A number of the deterministic models have trended slightly faster with the progression of a lead short-wave trough and associated jet streak through the northern Plains into upper MS Valley. At the surface, low pressure initially over eastern SD is forecast to develop northeast along a cold front moving from the eastern Dakotas into MN. The trailing extension of the boundary is expected to move more slowly into the mid MO Valley before stalling in response to a deepening cyclone over the central High Plains.

Steep lapse rates and a very moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate to strong instability across the warm sector, with initial storms potentially developing by early afternoon from the Red River Valley into central MN. Subsequent storms are likely to develop across southern MN into IA and northern MO by mid to late afternoon. The models indicate 40+ kt deep-layer shear across the warm sector, supportive of supercells and bowing structures, capable of all severe-weather hazards. The severe-weather threat is expected to spread east through the upper Midwest during the evening hours.

### Day 5/Thursday

Both the ensemble mean and deterministic models indicate the development of a prominent mid-level low over Manitoba or northwest Ontario, with a potent short-wave trough moving through the base of that feature from the upper MS Valley through the upper Great Lakes. A belt of unseasonably strong mid-level winds will attend the short-wave trough from the central Plains into upper Great Lakes. At the surface, ensemble member clustering and the deterministic models indicate the primary low pressure over Ontario, with some signal for a secondary cyclone/frontal wave developing from the mid MO Valley into upper Midwest during the day. The associated surface front is forecast to advance through the upper Midwest into upper Great Lakes, with the trailing extension of the boundary moving into the mid MS Valley and southern Plains.

The presence of moderate to strong instability across the pre-frontal warm sector suggests the potential for severe storms from the upper Midwest into southern Plains. Within that broader envelope, a potentially more concentrated area of severe weather may materialize from parts of the upper Midwest into mid MS Valley during the afternoon and evening hours. There, the most favorable overlap of the forcing for ascent, sufficient vertical shear, and ample instability are expected to reside.

### Day 6/Friday

The ensembles and majority of deterministic models indicate the Day5/Thursday upper Great lakes short-wave trough will lift northeast into Ontario and Quebec. At the surface, the models suggest that a weakening cold front will advance into the Northeast and through the OH Valley. Some severe-weather threat could develop along the front by afternoon; however, the models suggest that the boundary will become increasingly displaced from the strongest mid-level winds and associated vertical shear. Isolated severe storms also appear possible in the vicinity of a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains.

### Days 7-8/Saturday and Sunday

The ensemble mean solutions indicate some potential for mid-level troughing to develop from the northern Rockies into northern Plains next weekend, which is supported by a number of the deterministic models. At the surface, there are indications that a frontal system may stretch from the upper Midwest or Great Lakes into central High Plains, where some severe-weather threat could develop.

..Mead.. 06/07/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, June 14

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070841 SPC AC 070841

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

DISCUSSION

Day4/Wednesday

A concentrated area of potentially significant severe weather is expected Wednesday afternoon and evening, centered across portions of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa.

A number of the deterministic models have trended slightly faster with the progression of a lead short-wave trough and associated jet streak through the northern Plains into upper MS Valley. At the surface, low pressure initially over eastern SD is forecast to develop northeast along a cold front moving from the eastern Dakotas into MN. The trailing extension of the boundary is expected to move more slowly into the mid MO Valley before stalling in response to a deepening cyclone over the central High Plains.

Steep lapse rates and a very moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate to strong instability across the warm sector, with initial storms potentially developing by early afternoon from the Red River Valley into central MN. Subsequent storms are likely to develop across southern MN into IA and northern MO by mid to late afternoon. The models indicate 40+ kt deep-layer shear across the warm sector, supportive of supercells and bowing structures, capable of all severe-weather hazards. The severe-weather threat is expected to spread east through the upper Midwest during the evening hours.

### Day 5/Thursday

Both the ensemble mean and deterministic models indicate the development of a prominent mid-level low over Manitoba or northwest Ontario, with a potent short-wave trough moving through the base of that feature from the upper MS Valley through the upper Great Lakes. A belt of unseasonably strong mid-level winds will attend the short-wave trough from the central Plains into upper Great Lakes. At the surface, ensemble member clustering and the deterministic models indicate the primary low pressure over Ontario, with some signal for a secondary cyclone/frontal wave developing from the mid MO Valley into upper Midwest during the day. The associated surface front is forecast to advance through the upper Midwest into upper Great Lakes, with the trailing extension of the boundary moving into the mid MS Valley and southern Plains.

The presence of moderate to strong instability across the pre-frontal warm sector suggests the potential for severe storms from the upper Midwest into southern Plains. Within that broader envelope, a potentially more concentrated area of severe weather may materialize from parts of the upper Midwest into mid MS Valley during the afternoon and evening hours. There, the most favorable overlap of the forcing for ascent, sufficient vertical shear, and ample instability are expected to reside.

### Day 6/Friday

The ensembles and majority of deterministic models indicate the Day5/Thursday upper Great lakes short-wave trough will lift northeast into Ontario and Quebec. At the surface, the models suggest that a weakening cold front will advance into the Northeast and through the OH Valley. Some severe-weather threat could develop along the front by afternoon; however, the models suggest that the boundary will become increasingly displaced from the strongest mid-level winds and associated vertical shear. Isolated severe storms also appear possible in the vicinity of a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains.

### Days 7-8/Saturday and Sunday

The ensemble mean solutions indicate some potential for mid-level troughing to develop from the northern Rockies into northern Plains next weekend, which is supported by a number of the deterministic models. At the surface, there are indications that a frontal system may stretch from the upper Midwest or Great Lakes into central High Plains, where some severe-weather threat could develop.

..Mead.. 06/07/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Sunday, June 7

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 45%

Monday, June 8

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Tuesday, June 9

ANY SEVERE: 45%

Wednesday, June 10

ANY SEVERE: 30%

Thursday, June 11

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Friday, June 12

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Saturday, June 13

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Sunday, June 14

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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