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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Sunday, June 14

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail are expected this afternoon and evening from the Upper Ohio River Valley into the Northeast, and from the Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic States.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 141631

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Valid 141630Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST…AND FROM THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail are expected this afternoon and evening from the Upper Ohio River Valley into the Northeast, and from the Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic States.

Mid/Upper Ohio Valley to the Northeast/New England

Morning surface analysis places a low over southeastern Lower MI, along an extensive cold front that arcs from northwestern Ontario south-southwestward into southern IL and then more southwestward through southern MO and central OK into the TX Permian Basin. This cold front and attendant low are forecast to progress eastward today, moving just ahead of a shortwave trough pivoting within the base of a larger upper trough from the OH Valley through the Northeast. Moderate to strong mid-level flow will accompany this shortwave, with mesoanalysis currently estimating 60 kt at 500 mb within the base of this shortwave over the IA/MO border.

Moderate low-level moisture is already in place ahead of this shortwave trough and associated cold front across the OH Valley, with upper 60s dewpoints currently observed over much of IN and OH. Low-level moisture decreases with northeastward extent, with low 60s dewpoints in place across much of PA and western NY, decreasing to the upper 50s across much of New England. Filtered daytime heating will contribute to airmass destabilization ahead of the cold front, with temperatures in the 80s and dewpoints in the mid 60s resulting in moderate buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around 800-1000 J/kg) across the Middle to Upper OH Valley. Modest height falls and ascent along the front will support thunderstorms within this moderately buoyant environment. Around 40 kt effective shear could support a few initial/semi-discrete supercells prior to more prevalent upscale-growing linear modes, with the primary concern being damaging wind gusts, particularly in the OH/PA border vicinity where the best overlap of better buoyancy and shear exists. A brief tornado and/or hail could also occur given the relative strength of the wind profiles.

Cooler temperatures and lower dewpoints will lead to more limited buoyancy farther northeast (i.e. from western NY into New England). However, the airmass is still expected to destabilize, supporting afternoon/evening thunderstorms along and ahead of the front. Effective shear around 35 to 40 kt should be sufficient for occasional organization and some stronger bowing segments.

Mid-Atlantic to TN/southern Appalachians/Carolinas

Thunderstorm development is anticipated along the modest lee troughing expected to extend across the region this afternoon and evening. This development is forecast to occur well ahead of the cold front mentioned in the previous subsection, resulting in a separate area of strong to severe thunderstorm potential from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic.

Dewpoints across the region currently range from the upper 60s across the central MD and VA to the low 70s across the central Carolinas. Heating of this airmass will result in moderate to strong surface-based buoyancy. Shear will be weaker than areas farther north but still sufficient for organized clusters and/or perhaps a few supercells. Primary risk will be damaging gusts, with this potential maximized from eastern PA and NJ southward through the VA Tidewater region.

Also worth noting is the trend within the recent guidance for a modestly organized convective line to progress from Middle TN/northern AL through northern GA. This line appears to result from upscale growth of a relatively higher concentration of multicells initially over the western TN vicinity near a weak surface low. Consistency within the guidance is high enough to extend 15% wind probability back into middle TN/northern AL to cover this threat.

Southern Rockies into the Southern High Plains

Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated across central NM amid persistent westerly flow aloft and modest mid-level moisture. Deep-layer shear is strong enough to support a few organized updrafts capable of hail with any of the early, more cellular development. Thereafter, a trend towards a more outflow-dominant, linear structure is anticipated, and a few damaging gusts are possible with any stronger bowing segments.

..Mosier/Chalmers.. 06/14/2026

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Outlook for Monday, June 15

Outlook Summary

Scattered thunderstorms over the southern Rockies may result in some severe potential as they move southeast during the afternoon and evening. Elsewhere, scattered thunderstorms are possible from the Gulf Coast states to the Carolinas, and across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 141731

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Scattered thunderstorms over the southern Rockies may result in some severe potential as they move southeast during the afternoon and evening. Elsewhere, scattered thunderstorms are possible from the Gulf Coast states to the Carolinas, and across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest.

Synopsis

Broad mid-level troughing will persist across the eastern US on Monday. Embedded within the larger-scale trough will be several short-wave troughs quickly moving through. The first of these will be located across the Mid-Mississippi Valley at the start of the forecast period before quickly moving east off the East Coast by the end of the period. A second short-wave trough will dig southeast out of Canada across the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest.

At the surface, a remnant frontal boundary will hangup across the northern Gulf states, with a warm, moist airmass to the south and a continental cooler, drier airmass to the north. A secondary cold front will push quickly south and east across much of the Plains, stretching from southeast Colorado into the Upper Midwest by Tuesday morning.

### Southern Rockies/High Plains into Southwest Kansas

Easterly winds early Monday will turn southeasterly to southerly by late afternoon in response to surface troughing associated with the approaching mid-level short-wave trough. This will draw modest surface moisture northwestward into higher terrain of southeast Colorado (upper 40Fs dewpoints) and plains of southwest Kansas (upper 50Fs dewpoints).

At the same time, northwesterly mid-level flow will strengthen in response to the approaching short-wave trough. The result will be effective shear in the 30-40 knot range across the area by late afternoon, strengthening into the evening hours as the southerly nocturnal boundary layer wind maximum develops.

Thermodynamically, the northwesterly flow will maintain steep mid-level lapse rates. These lapse rates, coupled with diurnal heating, will yield MUCAPE values from around 500 J/kg in the higher terrain of southeast Colorado to around 1000-1500 J/kg across portions of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles and southwest Kansas. Continued low-level theta-e advection overnight should maintain or increase instability across the area during the overnight.

Current thinking is that isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop across terrain favored areas of eastern New Mexico and southeast Colorado. Strengthening mid-level flow should then support storm movement to the east/southeast into the High Plains. Initial thunderstorms should be capable of producing marginally severe hail. The potential exists for some isolated significant hail where higher instability exists. With time congealing thunderstorm outflows should result in an east/southeast moving cluster of storms with a potential for strong, gusty winds.

A small 15% hail or wind probability may be needed in later updates if confidence in storm coverage across southwest Kansas and portions of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles continues to increase.

Northern Plains and Upper Midwest

Despite scant low-level moisture, steepening mid-level lapse rates may support thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening. These storms should be relatively high-based with dry sub-cloud layers. Strong, gusty winds will be possible with these storms. A 5% wind area was considered, but low confidence in overall coverage of gusty winds precluded the introduction at this time.

### Northern Gulf Coast States and Florida

A very moist airmass will be in place ahead of the sagging/stalled surface front. Poor lapse rates should limit CAPE generation, but diurnal heating of this very moist airmass should yield MUCAPE values around 1500-2000 J/kg across portions of the area. This area is south of the main mid-level flow, which should limit overall thunderstorm organization, but high water content may result in a few wet downbursts capable of producing isolated damaging wind. The overall coverage looks to remain too low to warrant unconditional 5% wind probabilities at this time, but will be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks, particularly across portions of northern Florida and southern Georgia.

..Marsh.. 06/14/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, June 16

Outlook Summary

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening across parts of the Midwest.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 140611

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST

### SUMMARY

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening across parts of the Midwest.

Midwest

An upper shortwave trough over the MO Valley will develop eastward across the Upper Great Lakes/Midwest on Tuesday. A stalled surface front across the Gulf Coast region will suppress boundary-layer moisture across the Midwest. Surface dewpoints are forecast to generally be in the mid 50s to low 60s amid steepening midlevel lapse rates. This will support MLCAPE up to 1500 J/kg across portions of the Mid-MS Valley to Lake Michigan vicinity. A weak surface low is forecast to move across WI/Lower MI and a trailing front will move across IL/IN and vicinity. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon. Sufficient shear will exist for organized storms, with 30-40 kt midlevel flow depicted in forecast soundings. Gusty winds and hail will be the main hazards with this activity during the afternoon and evening. Severe potential will diminish with eastward extent due to decreasing boundary layer moisture and weakening instability toward the Ohio Valley.

..Leitman.. 06/14/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, June 17

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140744 SPC AC 140744

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Wednesday – Mid-MS and Ohio Valley vicinity

An upper shortwave trough is forecast to deepen as it moves across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes on Wednesday. As this occurs, an intense jet streak (especially by June standards) is forecast to overspread portions of the Midwest. The ECMWF and GFS suite of forecast guidance still is indicating a 500 mb jet streak greater than 80 kt overspreading the region by evening. Furthermore, low and midlevel flow will also be quite strong, with a daytime 850 mb low-level jet around 40-50 kt by mid/late afternoon.

At the surface, low pressure will deepen and move across the Upper MS Valley and Lower MI through the period. A warm front is forecast to move rapidly northward across IL and portions of the OH Valley through 00z. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will develop eastward across the region through the period. The warm sector will be characterized by dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s, and areas of strong destabilization are expected. While details concerning convective evolution remain uncertain, the overall environment will support supercells with upscale development into a bowing MCS possible by evening as the low-level jet continues to increase and spread east/northeast across the region. All severe hazards appear likely, with the greatest risk likely emerging across portions of the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley where significant severe storms are expected. Some severe risk will likely persist into the nighttime hours across parts of the Ohio Valley given intense deep-layer flow and sufficient instability.

Some details will likely change in subsequent outlooks as the track of the surface low and orientation of the mid/upper level jet streak atop the develop surface warm sector become better resolved closer to the event. The risk areas may shift some as these details become clearer.

Day 5/Thursday – Ohio Valley to Mid-Atlantic

An upper shortwave trough will pivot across the Lower Great Lakes/Northeast on Thursday, with a strong southwesterly jet streak forecast to overspread parts of the Ohio Valley into New England. The jet streak may tend to become increasing displaced from better low-level moisture/thermodynamic with time and eastward extent through the period. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass is expected ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front and a severe risk should unfold across parts of the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic. Northward extent of the severe risk is uncertain as early period convection and widespread rainfall may hinder destabilization. The best overlap of favorable vertical shear and instability is delineated by the 15 percent probabilities from OH/KY into the Mid-Atlantic, where damaging wind potential is likely to be the main concern.

Days 6-8/Friday-Sunday

Large spread among medium range guidance during the end of the forecast period leads to low predictability. The surface front from Day 4/5 will likely stall across the southern U.S. and periods of heavy rain will be possible across the Southeast. Late in the period, some signal for moisture return and a deepening lee low over the Plains could bring some increasing severe risk, but details remain uncertain.

..Leitman.. 06/14/2026

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Outlook for Thursday, June 18

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140744 SPC AC 140744

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Wednesday – Mid-MS and Ohio Valley vicinity

An upper shortwave trough is forecast to deepen as it moves across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes on Wednesday. As this occurs, an intense jet streak (especially by June standards) is forecast to overspread portions of the Midwest. The ECMWF and GFS suite of forecast guidance still is indicating a 500 mb jet streak greater than 80 kt overspreading the region by evening. Furthermore, low and midlevel flow will also be quite strong, with a daytime 850 mb low-level jet around 40-50 kt by mid/late afternoon.

At the surface, low pressure will deepen and move across the Upper MS Valley and Lower MI through the period. A warm front is forecast to move rapidly northward across IL and portions of the OH Valley through 00z. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will develop eastward across the region through the period. The warm sector will be characterized by dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s, and areas of strong destabilization are expected. While details concerning convective evolution remain uncertain, the overall environment will support supercells with upscale development into a bowing MCS possible by evening as the low-level jet continues to increase and spread east/northeast across the region. All severe hazards appear likely, with the greatest risk likely emerging across portions of the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley where significant severe storms are expected. Some severe risk will likely persist into the nighttime hours across parts of the Ohio Valley given intense deep-layer flow and sufficient instability.

Some details will likely change in subsequent outlooks as the track of the surface low and orientation of the mid/upper level jet streak atop the develop surface warm sector become better resolved closer to the event. The risk areas may shift some as these details become clearer.

Day 5/Thursday – Ohio Valley to Mid-Atlantic

An upper shortwave trough will pivot across the Lower Great Lakes/Northeast on Thursday, with a strong southwesterly jet streak forecast to overspread parts of the Ohio Valley into New England. The jet streak may tend to become increasing displaced from better low-level moisture/thermodynamic with time and eastward extent through the period. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass is expected ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front and a severe risk should unfold across parts of the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic. Northward extent of the severe risk is uncertain as early period convection and widespread rainfall may hinder destabilization. The best overlap of favorable vertical shear and instability is delineated by the 15 percent probabilities from OH/KY into the Mid-Atlantic, where damaging wind potential is likely to be the main concern.

Days 6-8/Friday-Sunday

Large spread among medium range guidance during the end of the forecast period leads to low predictability. The surface front from Day 4/5 will likely stall across the southern U.S. and periods of heavy rain will be possible across the Southeast. Late in the period, some signal for moisture return and a deepening lee low over the Plains could bring some increasing severe risk, but details remain uncertain.

..Leitman.. 06/14/2026

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Outlook for Friday, June 19

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140744 SPC AC 140744

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Wednesday – Mid-MS and Ohio Valley vicinity

An upper shortwave trough is forecast to deepen as it moves across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes on Wednesday. As this occurs, an intense jet streak (especially by June standards) is forecast to overspread portions of the Midwest. The ECMWF and GFS suite of forecast guidance still is indicating a 500 mb jet streak greater than 80 kt overspreading the region by evening. Furthermore, low and midlevel flow will also be quite strong, with a daytime 850 mb low-level jet around 40-50 kt by mid/late afternoon.

At the surface, low pressure will deepen and move across the Upper MS Valley and Lower MI through the period. A warm front is forecast to move rapidly northward across IL and portions of the OH Valley through 00z. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will develop eastward across the region through the period. The warm sector will be characterized by dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s, and areas of strong destabilization are expected. While details concerning convective evolution remain uncertain, the overall environment will support supercells with upscale development into a bowing MCS possible by evening as the low-level jet continues to increase and spread east/northeast across the region. All severe hazards appear likely, with the greatest risk likely emerging across portions of the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley where significant severe storms are expected. Some severe risk will likely persist into the nighttime hours across parts of the Ohio Valley given intense deep-layer flow and sufficient instability.

Some details will likely change in subsequent outlooks as the track of the surface low and orientation of the mid/upper level jet streak atop the develop surface warm sector become better resolved closer to the event. The risk areas may shift some as these details become clearer.

Day 5/Thursday – Ohio Valley to Mid-Atlantic

An upper shortwave trough will pivot across the Lower Great Lakes/Northeast on Thursday, with a strong southwesterly jet streak forecast to overspread parts of the Ohio Valley into New England. The jet streak may tend to become increasing displaced from better low-level moisture/thermodynamic with time and eastward extent through the period. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass is expected ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front and a severe risk should unfold across parts of the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic. Northward extent of the severe risk is uncertain as early period convection and widespread rainfall may hinder destabilization. The best overlap of favorable vertical shear and instability is delineated by the 15 percent probabilities from OH/KY into the Mid-Atlantic, where damaging wind potential is likely to be the main concern.

Days 6-8/Friday-Sunday

Large spread among medium range guidance during the end of the forecast period leads to low predictability. The surface front from Day 4/5 will likely stall across the southern U.S. and periods of heavy rain will be possible across the Southeast. Late in the period, some signal for moisture return and a deepening lee low over the Plains could bring some increasing severe risk, but details remain uncertain.

..Leitman.. 06/14/2026

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Outlook for Saturday, June 20

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140744 SPC AC 140744

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Wednesday – Mid-MS and Ohio Valley vicinity

An upper shortwave trough is forecast to deepen as it moves across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes on Wednesday. As this occurs, an intense jet streak (especially by June standards) is forecast to overspread portions of the Midwest. The ECMWF and GFS suite of forecast guidance still is indicating a 500 mb jet streak greater than 80 kt overspreading the region by evening. Furthermore, low and midlevel flow will also be quite strong, with a daytime 850 mb low-level jet around 40-50 kt by mid/late afternoon.

At the surface, low pressure will deepen and move across the Upper MS Valley and Lower MI through the period. A warm front is forecast to move rapidly northward across IL and portions of the OH Valley through 00z. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will develop eastward across the region through the period. The warm sector will be characterized by dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s, and areas of strong destabilization are expected. While details concerning convective evolution remain uncertain, the overall environment will support supercells with upscale development into a bowing MCS possible by evening as the low-level jet continues to increase and spread east/northeast across the region. All severe hazards appear likely, with the greatest risk likely emerging across portions of the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley where significant severe storms are expected. Some severe risk will likely persist into the nighttime hours across parts of the Ohio Valley given intense deep-layer flow and sufficient instability.

Some details will likely change in subsequent outlooks as the track of the surface low and orientation of the mid/upper level jet streak atop the develop surface warm sector become better resolved closer to the event. The risk areas may shift some as these details become clearer.

Day 5/Thursday – Ohio Valley to Mid-Atlantic

An upper shortwave trough will pivot across the Lower Great Lakes/Northeast on Thursday, with a strong southwesterly jet streak forecast to overspread parts of the Ohio Valley into New England. The jet streak may tend to become increasing displaced from better low-level moisture/thermodynamic with time and eastward extent through the period. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass is expected ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front and a severe risk should unfold across parts of the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic. Northward extent of the severe risk is uncertain as early period convection and widespread rainfall may hinder destabilization. The best overlap of favorable vertical shear and instability is delineated by the 15 percent probabilities from OH/KY into the Mid-Atlantic, where damaging wind potential is likely to be the main concern.

Days 6-8/Friday-Sunday

Large spread among medium range guidance during the end of the forecast period leads to low predictability. The surface front from Day 4/5 will likely stall across the southern U.S. and periods of heavy rain will be possible across the Southeast. Late in the period, some signal for moisture return and a deepening lee low over the Plains could bring some increasing severe risk, but details remain uncertain.

..Leitman.. 06/14/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, June 21

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140744 SPC AC 140744

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Wednesday – Mid-MS and Ohio Valley vicinity

An upper shortwave trough is forecast to deepen as it moves across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes on Wednesday. As this occurs, an intense jet streak (especially by June standards) is forecast to overspread portions of the Midwest. The ECMWF and GFS suite of forecast guidance still is indicating a 500 mb jet streak greater than 80 kt overspreading the region by evening. Furthermore, low and midlevel flow will also be quite strong, with a daytime 850 mb low-level jet around 40-50 kt by mid/late afternoon.

At the surface, low pressure will deepen and move across the Upper MS Valley and Lower MI through the period. A warm front is forecast to move rapidly northward across IL and portions of the OH Valley through 00z. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will develop eastward across the region through the period. The warm sector will be characterized by dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s, and areas of strong destabilization are expected. While details concerning convective evolution remain uncertain, the overall environment will support supercells with upscale development into a bowing MCS possible by evening as the low-level jet continues to increase and spread east/northeast across the region. All severe hazards appear likely, with the greatest risk likely emerging across portions of the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley where significant severe storms are expected. Some severe risk will likely persist into the nighttime hours across parts of the Ohio Valley given intense deep-layer flow and sufficient instability.

Some details will likely change in subsequent outlooks as the track of the surface low and orientation of the mid/upper level jet streak atop the develop surface warm sector become better resolved closer to the event. The risk areas may shift some as these details become clearer.

Day 5/Thursday – Ohio Valley to Mid-Atlantic

An upper shortwave trough will pivot across the Lower Great Lakes/Northeast on Thursday, with a strong southwesterly jet streak forecast to overspread parts of the Ohio Valley into New England. The jet streak may tend to become increasing displaced from better low-level moisture/thermodynamic with time and eastward extent through the period. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass is expected ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front and a severe risk should unfold across parts of the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic. Northward extent of the severe risk is uncertain as early period convection and widespread rainfall may hinder destabilization. The best overlap of favorable vertical shear and instability is delineated by the 15 percent probabilities from OH/KY into the Mid-Atlantic, where damaging wind potential is likely to be the main concern.

Days 6-8/Friday-Sunday

Large spread among medium range guidance during the end of the forecast period leads to low predictability. The surface front from Day 4/5 will likely stall across the southern U.S. and periods of heavy rain will be possible across the Southeast. Late in the period, some signal for moisture return and a deepening lee low over the Plains could bring some increasing severe risk, but details remain uncertain.

..Leitman.. 06/14/2026

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National Risk Overview

Sunday, June 14

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 30%

Monday, June 15

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 5%

Tuesday, June 16

ANY SEVERE: 5%

Wednesday, June 17

ANY SEVERE: 30%

Thursday, June 18

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Friday, June 19

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Saturday, June 20

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Sunday, June 21

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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