Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Saturday, June 13

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight from parts of the central and southern Plains to the Lower Missouri and Middle Mississippi Valleys. Swaths of damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes are all possible.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 132002

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Valid 132000Z - 141200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TO EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight from parts of the central and southern Plains to the Lower Missouri and Middle Mississippi Valleys. Swaths of damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes are all possible.

20z Update

Only minor modifications were needed to the ongoing forecast based on recent convective trends. The primary hazard continues to be initially hail along the front with the onset of convection followed by rapid upscale growth with an attendant severe wind threat across eastern KS into adjacent portions of AR, MO, and OK. Given the prevalence of outflow boundaries intersecting the front per recent surface observations, there will likely be one or more mesoscale corridors of higher tornado potential as one or more MCSs develop, however, confidence is limited in how productive these corridors will be give the expectation of upscale growth. For additional short-term details see MCDs #1122, #1123, and #1124.

..Moore.. 06/13/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026/

Central/Southern Plains to Middle Mississippi Valley

Several different areas are already convectively active this morning, including south-central IA/north-central MO where a bowing segment is moving southeastward through the region, and farther south from central/southern MO into far west-central IL, where elevated thunderstorm are being maintained by modest warm-air advection. Most immediate severe potential is downstream of the bowing segment in south-central IA/north-central MO where damaging wind gusts and isolated hail are possible over the next few hours. Thereafter, expansive coverage of the ongoing storms in central/southern MO introduces notable uncertainty regarding the extent and strength of afternoon destabilization.

General expectation is for the ongoing showers and thunderstorms to persist, aided by mesoscale ascent attendant to an MCV traversing the region. Cloud cover will limit heating, but ample low-level moisture will still support moderate buoyancy. Moderate deep-layer shear is anticipated over this area as well, with perhaps some more mesoscale enhancement attendant to the MCV. As a result, a few stronger embedded multicells and isolated supercells are possible. Isolated large hail and damaging gusts could occur with the strongest storms embedded within this likely broad area of showers and thunderstorms.

A more complex scenario is anticipated along the western edge of the MO cluster, extending back further westward into north-central KS. Current surface analysis shows an outflow boundary over extreme southeast NE arcing back through north-central KS to a low over far northwest KS. A more substantial surface low exists over southwest KS. Surface analysis also places a cold front from northwest IA southwestward to just north of the northwest KS low in far southwest NE. These boundaries should all influence convective evolution today, with the outflow/differential heating boundary along the western edge of the MO cluster likely playing a part as well.

Strong diurnal heating/steepening low-level lapse rates preceding the surface lows will result in scattered thunderstorm development near/ahead of the southeast-moving cold front, with the most intense development likely favoring where the front intercepts the western periphery of the outflow boundary. This intersection will most likely be over central into northeast KS. Strong buoyancy and moderate deep-layer shear will support robust updrafts capable of large to very large hail early in the convective cycle, before transitioning to a more linear mode as the front continues southeastward.

Another area of afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated from southern MO into west-central MO and far southeast KS, along the western edge of the outflow/differential heating associated with the ongoing MO cluster. Like the area farther northwest, large to isolated very large hail is anticipated initially. Additionally, this region could act as a corridor for upscale growth as the development along the cold front begins to interact with the more in-situ development along this boundary. Damaging winds will be the most prominent risk within this corridor this evening, potentially including some significant (75+ mph) wind gusts.

Despite numerous boundaries, the environmental conditions (i.e. high LCLs and modest surface wind) and anticipated convective evolution (i.e. outflow-dominant storms with quick evolution towards a linear mode) only suggest a low-probability tornado threat from discrete storms. A somewhat higher tornado risk could materialize within any more robust convective line that develops, particularly during evening as the low-level jet increases.

Lower MI

Scattered thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of a cold front moving through the region today. Strong low to mid-level flow could support a few more organized storms, beginning across northern Lower MI now and then extending back southwestward with time this afternoon/evening. Primary risks are isolated large hail and damaging gusts, but a brief tornado is possible as well.

Carolinas/Coastal Southeast

Ample heating within a moist environment south of a weak front will result in moderately strong diurnal destabilization, with convective development aided by the front and coastal sea breeze. Some pulse-type locally severe storms capable of downbursts/wind damage may occur this afternoon through around sunset.

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Outlook for Sunday, June 14

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts are expected across the Mid-Atlantic vicinity Sunday afternoon and evening. Additional strong to severe storms are expected across the Upper Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes area.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 131737

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN GEORGIA NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts are expected across the Mid-Atlantic vicinity Sunday afternoon and evening. Additional strong to severe storms are expected across the Upper Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes area.

Synopsis

Broad troughing will exist across the eastern US on Sunday with several smaller-scale troughs moving through a longer-wave trough. At the start of the forecast period, one shortwave trough will be moving across the Northeast and a secondary low-amplitude trough will approach the eastern US later in the day. As this happens, low-mid-level southwesterly flow will increase to around 40 knots, providing effective-layer shear sufficient for thunderstorm organization.

Surface dewpoints will increase into the low 60Fs perhaps as far north as central/southern New York ahead of an eastward advancing cold front. Diurnal heating of this moist airmass should result in MLCAPE perhaps as high as 1500-2500 J/kg across the southern Mid-Atlantic, to perhaps 1000 J/kg across portions of New York. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the surface front during the afternoon and evening. Damaging wind gusts will be the main concern with these storms, although an isolated tornado will also be possible. Strong consideration was given to increasing wind probabilities to 45% (Level 3/Enhanced) across the central/northern Mid-Atlantic region, but opted to defer any upgrade to later outlooks after collaboration with local offices.

Additional bands/clusters of storms are likely to develop during the afternoon across portions of the Upper Ohio Valley into PA/NY. While instability will be lower across this area, deep-layer flow will be stronger. Linear bands and clusters will pose a risk for isolated severe/damaging wind gusts through the evening.

Southeast NM to the ArkLaTex

A southward sagging surface front/composite outflow will extend west to east across the region. A very moist and moderately unstable airmass will be in place ahead of the front. Isolated convection cold pose a risk for strong wind gusts. Across southeast NM/southwest TX, a few storms could also produce hail. Weak large-scale ascent and convection becoming undercut by the surface boundary will limit overall severe potential.

..Marsh.. 06/13/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Monday, June 15

Outlook Summary

Scattered thunderstorms over the southern Rockies may result in some severe potential as they move southeast during the afternoon and evening. Elsewhere, scattered thunderstorms are possible from the Gulf Coast states to the Carolinas, and across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 131941

Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE

CORRECTED FOR CAPITALIZATION OF PANHANDLE

SUMMARY

Scattered thunderstorms over the southern Rockies may result in some severe potential as they move southeast during the afternoon and evening. Elsewhere, scattered thunderstorms are possible from the Gulf Coast states to the Carolinas, and across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest.

Synopsis

Broad mid-level troughing will persist across the eastern half of the US on Monday, downstream of a broad mid-level ridge across the eastern Pacific. A short-wave trough will dive southeast into the north-central US, embedded within the larger-scale northwest flow.

At the surface, a remnant front will be draped across the northern Gulf Coast states, stretching from the southern Rockies east to the Atlantic. Farther north, a second cold front associated with the aforementioned north-central short-wave trough will push southeast into the central Plains and Upper Midwest.

### Southern Rockies into the Texas Panhandle

Weak low-level upslope beneath northwesterly mid-level flow will support isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing across the higher terrain of the southern Rockies. CAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg and effective-layer shear around 30 knots will support some potential for thunderstorms organizing into a southeast-moving MCS capable of producing isolated damaging winds.

### Northern Gulf Coast States

Rich boundary layer moisture will be present south of the sagging/stationary frontal boundary. Diurnal heating of this airmass should support thunderstorm development. This area will be well south of the better mid-level flow thus organized severe potential should remain fairly limited. That said, high precipitable water values and the number of storms across the region may support an isolated damaging wind gust. Overall coverage looks to remain less than 5%.

### Northern/Central Plains

Although low-level moisture will be quite scant across the area, strong mid-upper-level forcing associated with the vorticity maximum moving across the area along with steepening lapse rates may support isolated high-based thunderstorm development. Gusty winds would be possible with any intense updraft, although this should remain fairly isolated and at this time does not warrant unconditional severe probabilities.

..Marsh.. 06/13/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, June 16

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130753 SPC AC 130753

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 5-6/Wed-Thu – Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley to Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic

An upper trough is forecast to deepen over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Wednesday. As this occurs, an intensifying 500 mb jet streak will develop across the central Plains and increase to 80-100 kt as it moves into the Mid-MS Valley Wednesday night, and spreads eastward across the Ohio Valley and Northeast on Thursday.

At the surface, low pressure will develop over the northern/central Plains late Tuesday night into early Wednesday. As this occurs, increasing southerly low-level flow will quickly transport rich Gulf moisture northward into the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley by Wednesday afternoon as the surface low moves across IA and a trailing cold front moves eastward in tandem with the low across portions of the central Plains and Mid-MS Valley. Strong to extreme instability is forecast across the strongly sheared warm sector. An all-hazards severe thunderstorm event appears likely. An intense southwesterly low-level jet is expected to develop during the evening. This could support upscale growth into an MCS moving across portions of the Midwest Wednesday night, posing a risk for swaths of damaging winds.

This system will spread east on Thursday across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. A continued risk for all severe hazards, and possible MCS with damaging winds, will persist as the mid/upper jet streak is forecast to remain quite strong as it overspreads a seasonally moist airmass.

While some timing differences of aforementioned features is evident in various NWP guidance, overall medium range consensus and mean calibrated ML/AI guidance suggests a multi-day severe episode is likely as this system overspreads portions of the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, though the 15 percent risk areas may shift in the coming days as details become better resolved, and higher probabilities are possible in subsequent outlooks. The southern extent of severe potential is more uncertain across parts of the Plains toward the TN Valley as these areas will remain further removed from stronger flow aloft.

..Leitman.. 06/13/2026

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Outlook for Wednesday, June 17

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130753 SPC AC 130753

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 5-6/Wed-Thu – Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley to Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic

An upper trough is forecast to deepen over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Wednesday. As this occurs, an intensifying 500 mb jet streak will develop across the central Plains and increase to 80-100 kt as it moves into the Mid-MS Valley Wednesday night, and spreads eastward across the Ohio Valley and Northeast on Thursday.

At the surface, low pressure will develop over the northern/central Plains late Tuesday night into early Wednesday. As this occurs, increasing southerly low-level flow will quickly transport rich Gulf moisture northward into the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley by Wednesday afternoon as the surface low moves across IA and a trailing cold front moves eastward in tandem with the low across portions of the central Plains and Mid-MS Valley. Strong to extreme instability is forecast across the strongly sheared warm sector. An all-hazards severe thunderstorm event appears likely. An intense southwesterly low-level jet is expected to develop during the evening. This could support upscale growth into an MCS moving across portions of the Midwest Wednesday night, posing a risk for swaths of damaging winds.

This system will spread east on Thursday across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. A continued risk for all severe hazards, and possible MCS with damaging winds, will persist as the mid/upper jet streak is forecast to remain quite strong as it overspreads a seasonally moist airmass.

While some timing differences of aforementioned features is evident in various NWP guidance, overall medium range consensus and mean calibrated ML/AI guidance suggests a multi-day severe episode is likely as this system overspreads portions of the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, though the 15 percent risk areas may shift in the coming days as details become better resolved, and higher probabilities are possible in subsequent outlooks. The southern extent of severe potential is more uncertain across parts of the Plains toward the TN Valley as these areas will remain further removed from stronger flow aloft.

..Leitman.. 06/13/2026

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Outlook for Thursday, June 18

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130753 SPC AC 130753

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 5-6/Wed-Thu – Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley to Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic

An upper trough is forecast to deepen over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Wednesday. As this occurs, an intensifying 500 mb jet streak will develop across the central Plains and increase to 80-100 kt as it moves into the Mid-MS Valley Wednesday night, and spreads eastward across the Ohio Valley and Northeast on Thursday.

At the surface, low pressure will develop over the northern/central Plains late Tuesday night into early Wednesday. As this occurs, increasing southerly low-level flow will quickly transport rich Gulf moisture northward into the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley by Wednesday afternoon as the surface low moves across IA and a trailing cold front moves eastward in tandem with the low across portions of the central Plains and Mid-MS Valley. Strong to extreme instability is forecast across the strongly sheared warm sector. An all-hazards severe thunderstorm event appears likely. An intense southwesterly low-level jet is expected to develop during the evening. This could support upscale growth into an MCS moving across portions of the Midwest Wednesday night, posing a risk for swaths of damaging winds.

This system will spread east on Thursday across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. A continued risk for all severe hazards, and possible MCS with damaging winds, will persist as the mid/upper jet streak is forecast to remain quite strong as it overspreads a seasonally moist airmass.

While some timing differences of aforementioned features is evident in various NWP guidance, overall medium range consensus and mean calibrated ML/AI guidance suggests a multi-day severe episode is likely as this system overspreads portions of the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, though the 15 percent risk areas may shift in the coming days as details become better resolved, and higher probabilities are possible in subsequent outlooks. The southern extent of severe potential is more uncertain across parts of the Plains toward the TN Valley as these areas will remain further removed from stronger flow aloft.

..Leitman.. 06/13/2026

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Outlook for Friday, June 19

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130753 SPC AC 130753

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 5-6/Wed-Thu – Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley to Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic

An upper trough is forecast to deepen over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Wednesday. As this occurs, an intensifying 500 mb jet streak will develop across the central Plains and increase to 80-100 kt as it moves into the Mid-MS Valley Wednesday night, and spreads eastward across the Ohio Valley and Northeast on Thursday.

At the surface, low pressure will develop over the northern/central Plains late Tuesday night into early Wednesday. As this occurs, increasing southerly low-level flow will quickly transport rich Gulf moisture northward into the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley by Wednesday afternoon as the surface low moves across IA and a trailing cold front moves eastward in tandem with the low across portions of the central Plains and Mid-MS Valley. Strong to extreme instability is forecast across the strongly sheared warm sector. An all-hazards severe thunderstorm event appears likely. An intense southwesterly low-level jet is expected to develop during the evening. This could support upscale growth into an MCS moving across portions of the Midwest Wednesday night, posing a risk for swaths of damaging winds.

This system will spread east on Thursday across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. A continued risk for all severe hazards, and possible MCS with damaging winds, will persist as the mid/upper jet streak is forecast to remain quite strong as it overspreads a seasonally moist airmass.

While some timing differences of aforementioned features is evident in various NWP guidance, overall medium range consensus and mean calibrated ML/AI guidance suggests a multi-day severe episode is likely as this system overspreads portions of the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, though the 15 percent risk areas may shift in the coming days as details become better resolved, and higher probabilities are possible in subsequent outlooks. The southern extent of severe potential is more uncertain across parts of the Plains toward the TN Valley as these areas will remain further removed from stronger flow aloft.

..Leitman.. 06/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, June 20

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130753 SPC AC 130753

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 5-6/Wed-Thu – Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley to Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic

An upper trough is forecast to deepen over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Wednesday. As this occurs, an intensifying 500 mb jet streak will develop across the central Plains and increase to 80-100 kt as it moves into the Mid-MS Valley Wednesday night, and spreads eastward across the Ohio Valley and Northeast on Thursday.

At the surface, low pressure will develop over the northern/central Plains late Tuesday night into early Wednesday. As this occurs, increasing southerly low-level flow will quickly transport rich Gulf moisture northward into the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley by Wednesday afternoon as the surface low moves across IA and a trailing cold front moves eastward in tandem with the low across portions of the central Plains and Mid-MS Valley. Strong to extreme instability is forecast across the strongly sheared warm sector. An all-hazards severe thunderstorm event appears likely. An intense southwesterly low-level jet is expected to develop during the evening. This could support upscale growth into an MCS moving across portions of the Midwest Wednesday night, posing a risk for swaths of damaging winds.

This system will spread east on Thursday across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. A continued risk for all severe hazards, and possible MCS with damaging winds, will persist as the mid/upper jet streak is forecast to remain quite strong as it overspreads a seasonally moist airmass.

While some timing differences of aforementioned features is evident in various NWP guidance, overall medium range consensus and mean calibrated ML/AI guidance suggests a multi-day severe episode is likely as this system overspreads portions of the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, though the 15 percent risk areas may shift in the coming days as details become better resolved, and higher probabilities are possible in subsequent outlooks. The southern extent of severe potential is more uncertain across parts of the Plains toward the TN Valley as these areas will remain further removed from stronger flow aloft.

..Leitman.. 06/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Saturday, June 13

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 30%

WIND: 45%

Sunday, June 14

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 30%

Monday, June 15

ANY SEVERE: 5%

Tuesday, June 16

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Wednesday, June 17

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Thursday, June 18

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Friday, June 19

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Saturday, June 20

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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