Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, April 7
Outlook Summary
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected today across parts of the Florida Peninsula, the southern Rockies, and northern High Plains. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 070454
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected today across parts of the Florida Peninsula, the southern Rockies, and northern High Plains. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
Synopsis
A mid-level trough will eject over the Atlantic while another pronounced mid-level trough rapidly traverses the northern Rockies today. Meanwhile, multiple low-amplitude impulses traversing relatively zonal upper flow will overspread the Southwest and the FL Peninsula. Across the Southern Rockies, enough lift amid cool air aloft (and thus scant buoyancy) should accompany the aforementioned low-amplitude mid-level impulse to support isolated to potentially scattered thunderstorm development. Scattered thunderstorms may also develop across the FL Peninsula along sea-breeze boundaries given a moist, heated low-level airmass. Scattered high-based/low-topped storms are likely across the northern High Plains with the approach of the upper trough. Storms will develop atop a deep and dry boundary layer, but with scant buoyancy. Given the dry boundary layer, gusty conditions may accompany the stronger storms. However, the severe wind threat currently appears too low for the introduction of a Category 1/Marginal risk at this time.
..Squitieri/Chalmers.. 04/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Wednesday, April 8
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail will be possible in parts of western and central Kansas late Wednesday afternoon into the evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 070600
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail will be possible in parts of western and central Kansas late Wednesday afternoon into the evening.
Western and Central Kansas
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the north-central U.S. on Wednesday. Ahead of the system, a broad low-level jet will move through the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the central Plains on Wednesday, with moisture advection occurring to the south of the front over much of the region. By early evening, the front is forecast to be located across northern Kansas. As low-level convergence increases along the front during the late afternoon, convective initiation will become likely. A broken line of thunderstorms is expected to develop in northern and western Kansas, moving southeastward into south-central Kansas during the evening. The NAM forecast sounding at Garden City, Kansas late Wednesday afternoon has MUCAPE near 750 J/kg with about 35 knots of effective shear and 850-500 mb lapse rates greater 8 C/km. This should be enough for isolated large hail with the stronger cells. The hail threat should continue into the early to mid evening, as a low-level jet ramps up across over the central Plains.
..Broyles.. 04/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Thursday, April 9
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, April 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, April 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, April 11 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Sunday, April 12 | 15% |
| Day 8 | Monday, April 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060834 SPC AC 060834
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6
From Thursday to Saturday, mid-level flow over the south-central U.S. is forecast to gradually transition from westerly to southwesterly. In response, low-level moisture advection will likely take place in the southern and central Plains. Isolated severe storms will be possible near a front in the central Plains from late Thursday afternoon into the early overnight period, as a low-level jet strengthens. On Friday, weak instability is forecast to develop over much of the southern Plains. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon and evening across parts of this airmass. An isolated severe threat may develop in some areas, but deep-layer shear is forecast to be relatively weak over much of the southern Plains, suggesting a more localized severe potential.
On Saturday, the potential for severe storms is expected to increase over parts of southern High Plains, as mid-level southwesterly flow strengthens. Model consensus suggests that the greatest severe threat potential will be over parts of west Texas, where some models have an axis of moderate instability in place by late Saturday afternoon. Supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible in the afternoon and evening, with storms that develop near this instability axis.
Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8
On Sunday, an upper-level low and an associated trough is forecast to move eastward across the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico. Ahead of this trough, moderate instability is forecast to develop by Sunday afternoon over much of the southern High Plains. Scattered severe storms would be possible to the east of a west Texas dryline in the afternoon and evening. A severe threat should continue into the overnight as a low-level jet strengthens ahead of the approaching trough.
On Monday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward across the central U.S, with an axis of moisture and instability located in the Great Plains. Scattered severe storms will be possible from Monday into Monday night from the southern Plains northward into Upper Midwest. At this extended range, there is still considerable uncertainty concerning the timing of the trough. For this reason, will hold off on a threat area until the models show better agreement.
..Broyles.. 04/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, April 10
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, April 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, April 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, April 11 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Sunday, April 12 | 15% |
| Day 8 | Monday, April 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060834 SPC AC 060834
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6
From Thursday to Saturday, mid-level flow over the south-central U.S. is forecast to gradually transition from westerly to southwesterly. In response, low-level moisture advection will likely take place in the southern and central Plains. Isolated severe storms will be possible near a front in the central Plains from late Thursday afternoon into the early overnight period, as a low-level jet strengthens. On Friday, weak instability is forecast to develop over much of the southern Plains. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon and evening across parts of this airmass. An isolated severe threat may develop in some areas, but deep-layer shear is forecast to be relatively weak over much of the southern Plains, suggesting a more localized severe potential.
On Saturday, the potential for severe storms is expected to increase over parts of southern High Plains, as mid-level southwesterly flow strengthens. Model consensus suggests that the greatest severe threat potential will be over parts of west Texas, where some models have an axis of moderate instability in place by late Saturday afternoon. Supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible in the afternoon and evening, with storms that develop near this instability axis.
Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8
On Sunday, an upper-level low and an associated trough is forecast to move eastward across the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico. Ahead of this trough, moderate instability is forecast to develop by Sunday afternoon over much of the southern High Plains. Scattered severe storms would be possible to the east of a west Texas dryline in the afternoon and evening. A severe threat should continue into the overnight as a low-level jet strengthens ahead of the approaching trough.
On Monday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward across the central U.S, with an axis of moisture and instability located in the Great Plains. Scattered severe storms will be possible from Monday into Monday night from the southern Plains northward into Upper Midwest. At this extended range, there is still considerable uncertainty concerning the timing of the trough. For this reason, will hold off on a threat area until the models show better agreement.
..Broyles.. 04/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, April 11
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, April 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, April 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, April 11 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Sunday, April 12 | 15% |
| Day 8 | Monday, April 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060834 SPC AC 060834
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6
From Thursday to Saturday, mid-level flow over the south-central U.S. is forecast to gradually transition from westerly to southwesterly. In response, low-level moisture advection will likely take place in the southern and central Plains. Isolated severe storms will be possible near a front in the central Plains from late Thursday afternoon into the early overnight period, as a low-level jet strengthens. On Friday, weak instability is forecast to develop over much of the southern Plains. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon and evening across parts of this airmass. An isolated severe threat may develop in some areas, but deep-layer shear is forecast to be relatively weak over much of the southern Plains, suggesting a more localized severe potential.
On Saturday, the potential for severe storms is expected to increase over parts of southern High Plains, as mid-level southwesterly flow strengthens. Model consensus suggests that the greatest severe threat potential will be over parts of west Texas, where some models have an axis of moderate instability in place by late Saturday afternoon. Supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible in the afternoon and evening, with storms that develop near this instability axis.
Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8
On Sunday, an upper-level low and an associated trough is forecast to move eastward across the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico. Ahead of this trough, moderate instability is forecast to develop by Sunday afternoon over much of the southern High Plains. Scattered severe storms would be possible to the east of a west Texas dryline in the afternoon and evening. A severe threat should continue into the overnight as a low-level jet strengthens ahead of the approaching trough.
On Monday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward across the central U.S, with an axis of moisture and instability located in the Great Plains. Scattered severe storms will be possible from Monday into Monday night from the southern Plains northward into Upper Midwest. At this extended range, there is still considerable uncertainty concerning the timing of the trough. For this reason, will hold off on a threat area until the models show better agreement.
..Broyles.. 04/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, April 12
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, April 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, April 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, April 11 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Sunday, April 12 | 15% |
| Day 8 | Monday, April 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060834 SPC AC 060834
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6
From Thursday to Saturday, mid-level flow over the south-central U.S. is forecast to gradually transition from westerly to southwesterly. In response, low-level moisture advection will likely take place in the southern and central Plains. Isolated severe storms will be possible near a front in the central Plains from late Thursday afternoon into the early overnight period, as a low-level jet strengthens. On Friday, weak instability is forecast to develop over much of the southern Plains. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon and evening across parts of this airmass. An isolated severe threat may develop in some areas, but deep-layer shear is forecast to be relatively weak over much of the southern Plains, suggesting a more localized severe potential.
On Saturday, the potential for severe storms is expected to increase over parts of southern High Plains, as mid-level southwesterly flow strengthens. Model consensus suggests that the greatest severe threat potential will be over parts of west Texas, where some models have an axis of moderate instability in place by late Saturday afternoon. Supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible in the afternoon and evening, with storms that develop near this instability axis.
Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8
On Sunday, an upper-level low and an associated trough is forecast to move eastward across the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico. Ahead of this trough, moderate instability is forecast to develop by Sunday afternoon over much of the southern High Plains. Scattered severe storms would be possible to the east of a west Texas dryline in the afternoon and evening. A severe threat should continue into the overnight as a low-level jet strengthens ahead of the approaching trough.
On Monday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward across the central U.S, with an axis of moisture and instability located in the Great Plains. Scattered severe storms will be possible from Monday into Monday night from the southern Plains northward into Upper Midwest. At this extended range, there is still considerable uncertainty concerning the timing of the trough. For this reason, will hold off on a threat area until the models show better agreement.
..Broyles.. 04/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, April 13
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, April 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, April 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, April 11 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Sunday, April 12 | 15% |
| Day 8 | Monday, April 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060834 SPC AC 060834
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6
From Thursday to Saturday, mid-level flow over the south-central U.S. is forecast to gradually transition from westerly to southwesterly. In response, low-level moisture advection will likely take place in the southern and central Plains. Isolated severe storms will be possible near a front in the central Plains from late Thursday afternoon into the early overnight period, as a low-level jet strengthens. On Friday, weak instability is forecast to develop over much of the southern Plains. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon and evening across parts of this airmass. An isolated severe threat may develop in some areas, but deep-layer shear is forecast to be relatively weak over much of the southern Plains, suggesting a more localized severe potential.
On Saturday, the potential for severe storms is expected to increase over parts of southern High Plains, as mid-level southwesterly flow strengthens. Model consensus suggests that the greatest severe threat potential will be over parts of west Texas, where some models have an axis of moderate instability in place by late Saturday afternoon. Supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible in the afternoon and evening, with storms that develop near this instability axis.
Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8
On Sunday, an upper-level low and an associated trough is forecast to move eastward across the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico. Ahead of this trough, moderate instability is forecast to develop by Sunday afternoon over much of the southern High Plains. Scattered severe storms would be possible to the east of a west Texas dryline in the afternoon and evening. A severe threat should continue into the overnight as a low-level jet strengthens ahead of the approaching trough.
On Monday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward across the central U.S, with an axis of moisture and instability located in the Great Plains. Scattered severe storms will be possible from Monday into Monday night from the southern Plains northward into Upper Midwest. At this extended range, there is still considerable uncertainty concerning the timing of the trough. For this reason, will hold off on a threat area until the models show better agreement.
..Broyles.. 04/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, April 7
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Wednesday, April 8
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: low
- Thursday, April 9
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, April 10
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, April 11
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Sunday, April 12
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Monday, April 13
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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