Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, November 8
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 090050
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 PM CST Sun Nov 08 2026
Valid 090100Z - 091200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight.
South Texas
An upper low over southwest Chihuahua, Mexico, this evening will progress toward the TX Big Bend overnight. Modest midlevel height falls preceding that feature will combine with persistent low/midlevel warm advection and a moist environment with MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg (per the 00Z BRO and CRP soundings) to yield an increase in thunderstorm coverage overnight. While no severe weather is expected, a strong storm or two capable of gusty winds is possible.
Lower Great Lakes
Ongoing showers over portions of southwest Ontario are indicative of increased forcing for ascent associated with a vorticity maximum moving through that region. So far, convection has remained too shallow to support charge separation and lightning production. However, as the forcing begins to overspread the lower Great Lakes, sensible heat and moisture fluxes may be sufficient to yield deeper convective updrafts capable of sporadic lightning over far western NY and in the Tug Hill region.
..Mead.. 11/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Monday, November 9
Outlook Summary
There appears little risk for severe thunderstorm activity across the U.S. Monday through Monday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 081639
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1039 AM CST Sun Nov 08 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
There appears little risk for severe thunderstorm activity across the U.S. Monday through Monday night.
Discussion
Models continue to indicate that a strong, initially zonal, mid/upper jet across the mid-latitude Pacific will undergo amplification Monday through Monday night. As this occurs, split downstream flow, across and inland of the Pacific coast, may trend more confluent east of the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard. Within an evolving branch across the subtropical latitudes, it appears that a remnant cyclonic mid-level circulation will continue to become increasingly sheared across and east-northeast of the Texas Big Bend vicinity. Upstream, one or two short wave perturbations emerging from the mid-latitude eastern Pacific are also forecast to undergo considerable deformation, while progressing inland within generally building larger-scale mid-level ridging.
Southern Texas
Recent runs of the Rapid Refresh and High-Resolution Rapid Refresh support previous other model output indicating that potential for occasional scattered thunderstorm development will continue into this period. It appears that this will still be largely supported by forcing for ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, downstream of the weakening mid-level perturbation into Monday afternoon, before tending to diminish by Monday evening.
Pacific Northwest
REFS, and now GEFS, calibrated thunderstorm guidance continue to indicate at least low probabilities for convection capable of producing lightning across and inland of the Oregon coast into Cascades by late Monday afternoon. This would likely accompany destabilization beneath an inland progressing thermal trough, in the presence of strengthening and moistening low-level onshore flow. However, coldest mid-level temperatures (including -18 to -22 C around 500 mb) overspreading the Pacific Northwest are forecast to remain rather modest in magnitude, and it remains unclear in forecast soundings the extent to which thermodynamic profiles will become supportive of lightning discharge. At this point, thunderstorm probabilities still appear less than 10 percent, with any convection that becomes capable of producing lightning brief in nature and rather sparse in coverage.
..Kerr.. 11/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Tuesday, November 10
Outlook Summary
There appears little risk for severe thunderstorm activity across the U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 081905
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 PM CST Sun Nov 08 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
There appears little risk for severe thunderstorm activity across the U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night.
Discussion
Latest model output continues to indicate substantive further amplification within the stronger westerlies across the mid-latitude Pacific through this period. This is forecast to include building mid-level ridging within the split downstream regime, across the Great Basin through western Canadian Prairies. As this occurs, it appears that several shorter wavelength perturbations to the east will dig and begin to consolidate into larger-scale mid-level troughing across Manitoba/Ontario through the middle and lower Missouri Valley by late Tuesday night. However, the larger-scale pattern east of the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard is likely to remain at least broadly confluent, with an embedded lower-latitude perturbation becoming increasingly sheared across central Texas through the Gulf Coast states.
In association with this evolving regime, low probabilities for thunderstorms may lingering near inverted surface troughing near, but generally offshore of, lower/middle Texas coastal areas. Otherwise, generally stable conditions are likely to prevail across most of the nation through at least 12Z Wednesday.
..Kerr.. 11/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Wednesday, November 11
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, November 11 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, November 13 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, November 14 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, November 15 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080945 SPC AC 080945
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Sun Nov 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
During the Day 4 to 8 period, a cyclonic mid-level flow pattern will be in place over the eastern U.S, with a series of shortwave troughs moving through the large-scale trough. Ahead of this feature, thunderstorm development will be possible in the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Wednesday, and in parts of the central Appalachians on Thursday. Further west, an upper-level ridge will move slowly eastward across the western and central U.S. At the surface, high pressure is forecast to settle into the Gulf Coast states from Friday to Sunday, limiting thunderstorm potential across the majority of the nation.
..Broyles.. 11/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, November 12
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, November 11 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, November 13 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, November 14 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, November 15 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080945 SPC AC 080945
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Sun Nov 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
During the Day 4 to 8 period, a cyclonic mid-level flow pattern will be in place over the eastern U.S, with a series of shortwave troughs moving through the large-scale trough. Ahead of this feature, thunderstorm development will be possible in the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Wednesday, and in parts of the central Appalachians on Thursday. Further west, an upper-level ridge will move slowly eastward across the western and central U.S. At the surface, high pressure is forecast to settle into the Gulf Coast states from Friday to Sunday, limiting thunderstorm potential across the majority of the nation.
..Broyles.. 11/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, November 13
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, November 11 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, November 13 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, November 14 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, November 15 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080945 SPC AC 080945
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Sun Nov 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
During the Day 4 to 8 period, a cyclonic mid-level flow pattern will be in place over the eastern U.S, with a series of shortwave troughs moving through the large-scale trough. Ahead of this feature, thunderstorm development will be possible in the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Wednesday, and in parts of the central Appalachians on Thursday. Further west, an upper-level ridge will move slowly eastward across the western and central U.S. At the surface, high pressure is forecast to settle into the Gulf Coast states from Friday to Sunday, limiting thunderstorm potential across the majority of the nation.
..Broyles.. 11/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, November 14
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, November 11 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, November 13 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, November 14 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, November 15 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080945 SPC AC 080945
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Sun Nov 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
During the Day 4 to 8 period, a cyclonic mid-level flow pattern will be in place over the eastern U.S, with a series of shortwave troughs moving through the large-scale trough. Ahead of this feature, thunderstorm development will be possible in the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Wednesday, and in parts of the central Appalachians on Thursday. Further west, an upper-level ridge will move slowly eastward across the western and central U.S. At the surface, high pressure is forecast to settle into the Gulf Coast states from Friday to Sunday, limiting thunderstorm potential across the majority of the nation.
..Broyles.. 11/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, November 15
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, November 11 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, November 13 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, November 14 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, November 15 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080945 SPC AC 080945
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Sun Nov 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
During the Day 4 to 8 period, a cyclonic mid-level flow pattern will be in place over the eastern U.S, with a series of shortwave troughs moving through the large-scale trough. Ahead of this feature, thunderstorm development will be possible in the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Wednesday, and in parts of the central Appalachians on Thursday. Further west, an upper-level ridge will move slowly eastward across the western and central U.S. At the surface, high pressure is forecast to settle into the Gulf Coast states from Friday to Sunday, limiting thunderstorm potential across the majority of the nation.
..Broyles.. 11/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, November 8
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Monday, November 9
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, November 10
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Wednesday, November 11
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, November 12
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, November 13
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, November 14
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, November 15
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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