Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, March 21
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce marginally severe hail and damaging winds this afternoon and evening from the southern Appalachians into the Carolinas.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 211937
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026
Valid 212000Z - 221200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO THE CAROLINAS
CORRECTED FOR GEOGRAPHIC AREA HEADLINE
SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce marginally severe hail and damaging winds this afternoon and evening from the southern Appalachians into the Carolinas.
20Z Update
The previous forecast (see below), remains on track. Please see Mesoscale Discussion 283 for short-term information on the severe threat across portions of the southern Appalachians.
..Squitieri.. 03/21/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026/
Southern Appalachians into the Carolinas
Recent satellite imagery shows a somewhat subtle and broad shortwave trough progressing southeastward through the MS Valley, along the far northeast periphery of the upper ridging covering much of the Southwest and southern Plains. Limited low-level moisture precedes this wave, with recent surface analysis sampling dewpoints ranging from the upper 50s across much of AL to the mid 40s across much of the Carolinas. Modest low-level moisture advection is anticipated today ahead of this wave. However, this advection will be countered by diurnal mixing, and the general expectation is for dewpoints to be in the upper 40s/low 50s from eastern TN into the Carolinas as the wave moves in the area this afternoon. Even with this limited low-level moisture, cool mid-level temperatures and associated steep mid-level lapse rates will support weak buoyancy and the potential for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening.
Large-scale ascent will be modest, supporting an initially more cellular, loosely organized storm mode. This region will be on the southern periphery of the stronger mid-level flow, likely resulting in sufficient shear for organization within any deeper, more persistent updrafts. As such, updrafts are expected to gradually intensify as they move into the western and central Carolinas. Marginally severe hail is possible with the strongest cores. A trend towards a more linear/line segment mode is expected with time, and persistent steep low-level lapse rates may support occasional strong to damaging downdraft winds as well. The onset of nocturnal boundary-layer stabilization should result in a decreasing severe threat as the storms move into the coastal Carolinas.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Sunday, March 22
Outlook Summary
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging wind gusts, and possibly some tornado threat are expected on Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of the Ohio Valley into the northern Mid Atlantic region.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 211723
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
### SUMMARY
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging wind gusts, and possibly some tornado threat are expected on Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of the Ohio Valley into the northern Mid Atlantic region.
Synopsis
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to gradually amplify on Sunday, as it moves from the northern Plains towards the Great Lakes region. This amplification will occur within a broader west-northwesterly flow regime, with relatively strong deep-layer flow expected to eventually overspread the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic regions. A cold front initially draped from the central Plains into the Lower Great Lakes will move generally southeastward through the period, as one or more frontal waves traverse the front from the mid MS Valley into the Northeast and Mid Atlantic.
Ohio Valley into parts of the Mid Atlantic
A plume of relatively steep midlevel lapse rates will emanate out of an anomalously hot and well-mixed regime across the Southwest and central/southern Plains and overspread parts of the Ohio Valley on Sunday. With favorable deep-layer flow/shear expected across the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic, the primary uncertainty regarding the magnitude of buoyancy and potential severe threat is low-level moisture return. The partially modified nature of returning Gulf moisture and a tendency for strong antecedent heating/mixing upstream of the Ohio Valley may continue to result in less aggressive moistening compared to most guidance. However, with relatively cool midlevel temperatures (-14C to -16C at 500 mb), even dewpoints in the low/mid 50s F will result in moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) where sufficient heating occurs.
The greatest confidence in diurnal storm development currently resides within the eastern portion of the primary buoyancy plume across PA and eastern OH, where weaker capping and a modest warm-advection regime could result in isolated to widely scattered supercell development along/ahead of the front. Weaker ascent with southwest extent reduces confidence in development across the lower Ohio Valley, though isolated supercell development cannot be ruled out in this region as well. An increase in storm coverage is expected into Sunday night as the cold front begins to surge southeastward, though much of the nocturnal activity may tend to be anafrontal and somewhat elevated.
Large hail (potentially to the size of golf balls or larger) could accompany any longer-lived supercells during the afternoon and evening. The environment will also be favorable for damaging-wind potential, especially where stronger diurnal heating occurs, though potential for organized clustering is uncertain due to the eventual undercutting frontal passage. Also, while flow will remain rather veered, low-level shear/SRH may be sufficient to support some supercell tornado threat, conditional upon sufficient low-level moistening. A corridor of greater tornado probabilities may eventually be needed, if trends support more substantial moisture return than currently expected.
..Dean.. 03/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Monday, March 23
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Monday across parts of the Carolinas and Georgia.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 211852
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF GA/SC AND SOUTHERN NC
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Monday across parts of the Carolinas and Georgia.
Parts of the Carolinas and Georgia
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough initially near the lower Great Lakes region is forecast to move offshore of New England by Monday night. In the wake of this shortwave, a cold front will continue moving southward across parts of the Carolinas and Southeast. Along and south of the front, heating and modest low-level moisture (with dewpoints in the 50s to near 60 F) will result in some diurnal destabilization, with MLCAPE potentially increasing into the 500-1000 J/kg range.
With generally limited frontal convergence and only weak to modest large-scale ascent, storm coverage may remain isolated near/south of the front. Modest west-northwesterly mid/upper-level flow will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for some storm organization, if any robust updrafts can be sustained. Isolated hail and/or strong/damaging gusts could occur with the strongest storms, though coverage appears limited at this time.
..Dean.. 03/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Tuesday, March 24
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, March 24 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, March 25 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, March 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, March 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, March 28 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210829 SPC AC 210829
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6
An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the western Atlantic from Tuesday into Wednesday, as a surface high moves eastward across the eastern U.S. A dry airmass is forecast across most of the U.S., which should be unfavorable for thunderstorms in most areas.
On Thursday, a low is forecast to develop in the northern U.S., as low-level moisture returns quickly northward into the parts of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms will be possible across this unstable airmass, mainly Thursday night, along the southern edge of a passing mid-level jet streak. The greatest potential for severe thunderstorms is expected from the mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley along and near a cold front. At this time, the amount of spread concerning potential outcomes is substantial. An area may need to be added once model solutions begin to agree more, and confidence increases concerning where the greatest severe threat will be.
Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8
On Friday, the front is forecast to move southward across the Tennessee Valley, where isolated to scattered strong thunderstorms will be possible during the day. The front is forecast to move southward to near the Gulf Coast by Saturday. Isolated storms would again be possible near the front. Although the current thinking is that any severe threat will be marginal on Friday and Saturday, uncertainty is substantial due to the extended range in the forecast period.
..Broyles.. 03/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, March 25
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, March 24 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, March 25 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, March 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, March 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, March 28 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210829 SPC AC 210829
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6
An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the western Atlantic from Tuesday into Wednesday, as a surface high moves eastward across the eastern U.S. A dry airmass is forecast across most of the U.S., which should be unfavorable for thunderstorms in most areas.
On Thursday, a low is forecast to develop in the northern U.S., as low-level moisture returns quickly northward into the parts of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms will be possible across this unstable airmass, mainly Thursday night, along the southern edge of a passing mid-level jet streak. The greatest potential for severe thunderstorms is expected from the mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley along and near a cold front. At this time, the amount of spread concerning potential outcomes is substantial. An area may need to be added once model solutions begin to agree more, and confidence increases concerning where the greatest severe threat will be.
Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8
On Friday, the front is forecast to move southward across the Tennessee Valley, where isolated to scattered strong thunderstorms will be possible during the day. The front is forecast to move southward to near the Gulf Coast by Saturday. Isolated storms would again be possible near the front. Although the current thinking is that any severe threat will be marginal on Friday and Saturday, uncertainty is substantial due to the extended range in the forecast period.
..Broyles.. 03/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, March 26
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, March 24 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, March 25 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, March 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, March 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, March 28 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210829 SPC AC 210829
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6
An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the western Atlantic from Tuesday into Wednesday, as a surface high moves eastward across the eastern U.S. A dry airmass is forecast across most of the U.S., which should be unfavorable for thunderstorms in most areas.
On Thursday, a low is forecast to develop in the northern U.S., as low-level moisture returns quickly northward into the parts of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms will be possible across this unstable airmass, mainly Thursday night, along the southern edge of a passing mid-level jet streak. The greatest potential for severe thunderstorms is expected from the mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley along and near a cold front. At this time, the amount of spread concerning potential outcomes is substantial. An area may need to be added once model solutions begin to agree more, and confidence increases concerning where the greatest severe threat will be.
Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8
On Friday, the front is forecast to move southward across the Tennessee Valley, where isolated to scattered strong thunderstorms will be possible during the day. The front is forecast to move southward to near the Gulf Coast by Saturday. Isolated storms would again be possible near the front. Although the current thinking is that any severe threat will be marginal on Friday and Saturday, uncertainty is substantial due to the extended range in the forecast period.
..Broyles.. 03/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, March 27
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, March 24 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, March 25 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, March 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, March 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, March 28 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210829 SPC AC 210829
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6
An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the western Atlantic from Tuesday into Wednesday, as a surface high moves eastward across the eastern U.S. A dry airmass is forecast across most of the U.S., which should be unfavorable for thunderstorms in most areas.
On Thursday, a low is forecast to develop in the northern U.S., as low-level moisture returns quickly northward into the parts of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms will be possible across this unstable airmass, mainly Thursday night, along the southern edge of a passing mid-level jet streak. The greatest potential for severe thunderstorms is expected from the mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley along and near a cold front. At this time, the amount of spread concerning potential outcomes is substantial. An area may need to be added once model solutions begin to agree more, and confidence increases concerning where the greatest severe threat will be.
Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8
On Friday, the front is forecast to move southward across the Tennessee Valley, where isolated to scattered strong thunderstorms will be possible during the day. The front is forecast to move southward to near the Gulf Coast by Saturday. Isolated storms would again be possible near the front. Although the current thinking is that any severe threat will be marginal on Friday and Saturday, uncertainty is substantial due to the extended range in the forecast period.
..Broyles.. 03/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, March 28
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, March 24 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, March 25 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, March 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, March 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, March 28 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210829 SPC AC 210829
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6
An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the western Atlantic from Tuesday into Wednesday, as a surface high moves eastward across the eastern U.S. A dry airmass is forecast across most of the U.S., which should be unfavorable for thunderstorms in most areas.
On Thursday, a low is forecast to develop in the northern U.S., as low-level moisture returns quickly northward into the parts of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms will be possible across this unstable airmass, mainly Thursday night, along the southern edge of a passing mid-level jet streak. The greatest potential for severe thunderstorms is expected from the mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley along and near a cold front. At this time, the amount of spread concerning potential outcomes is substantial. An area may need to be added once model solutions begin to agree more, and confidence increases concerning where the greatest severe threat will be.
Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8
On Friday, the front is forecast to move southward across the Tennessee Valley, where isolated to scattered strong thunderstorms will be possible during the day. The front is forecast to move southward to near the Gulf Coast by Saturday. Isolated storms would again be possible near the front. Although the current thinking is that any severe threat will be marginal on Friday and Saturday, uncertainty is substantial due to the extended range in the forecast period.
..Broyles.. 03/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, March 21
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Sunday, March 22
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Monday, March 23
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Tuesday, March 24
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, March 25
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, March 26
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, March 27
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, March 28
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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