Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, October 22
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Southwest and Four Corners area today into tonight with the most intense storms likely across parts of Arizona and New Mexico. All severe hazards will be possible.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 220600
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Southwest and Four Corners area today into tonight with the most intense storms likely across parts of Arizona and New Mexico. All severe hazards will be possible.
Southwest and Four Corners
The deep upper low initially over the CA coast will move inland and continue eastward through the day, slowly weakening into an open wave. A belt of enhanced southerly mid-level flow (70+ kt) along the eastern periphery of the cyclone will remain in place over the Southwest and Four Corners. Several embedded shortwave perturbations will rotate around the cyclone, aiding in continued low-level southerly flow across eastern AZ and southwest NM. Here, surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s F and diurnal heating should contribute to moderate buoyancy amid deep and strongly veering wind profiles favorable for severe storms.
One or more bands of convection are likely to be ongoing across central/eastern AZ early this morning along a weak surface trough. Cooling mid-level temperatures ahead of the approaching low and persistent upslope flow along the central and southern portions of the Mogollon Rim will maintain buoyancy through the diurnal minimum with reintensification of these storms likely as heating develops over the lower deserts. Storms will likely be supercellular initially. Large hail (perhaps to around 2 inches) and a couple of tornadoes will be the main concern, focused where the largest buoyancy and strongest low-level shear will overlap in southeastern AZ. With time, increasingly meridional flow and numerous storm interactions will favor more linear modes and perhaps a transition to a greater damaging wind threat by later in the afternoon.
Farther north into the Great Basin, sufficient destabilization for more than sporadic severe storms is much less certain owing to lower surface dewpoints and significant cloud cover. Still, model guidance shows a few hundred J/kg of MLCAPE may develop with pockets of better heating from eastern NV, UT and into southwestern CO. Flow aloft will remain fairly strong (50-60 kt) helping to elongate mid and upper-level hodographs. DPVA and upslope trajectories should support numerous showers/thunderstorms with some potential for organization into clusters or supercell structures. Damaging wind gusts are the most likely hazard, though marginally severe hail is also possible with any of the stronger rotating storms into the evening.
Southern California
As the upper-level low moves overhead during the afternoon, cold mid-level temperatures (around -20C at 500 mb) and modest surface heating will support weak destabilization with MLCAPE of 500-750 J/kg. Low-topped convection near the coast may be ongoing early and continue into the early afternoon before mid-level ascent begins to decrease. Given the ambient vorticity with the upper-low and local terrain effects, a brief tornado is possible with the strongest storms along with isolated wind damage potential. Severe potential should rapidly diminish as the upper trough moves eastward late through the afternoon and into the evening.
..Lyons/Jirak.. 10/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Friday, October 23
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of New Mexico on Friday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 220600
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of New Mexico on Friday.
Synopsis
A broad upper trough will slowly progress over the Rockies on Friday, with a lead mid-level impulse poised to eject into the northern Plains while a lagging 500 mb cut-off low drifts eastward across the Desert Southwest. Given adequate low-level moisture return and deep-layer ascent ahead of the longwave mid-level trough, thunderstorms will be possible across much of the Rockies and the central to northern Plains. Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of NM, where locally greater moisture and instability reside.
Western into central New Mexico
As the aforementioned leading mid-level impulse departs the Rockies and the cut-off low approaches NM, 50+ kt southwesterly 500 mb flow will overspread the Desert Southwest, where low to mid 50s F surface dewpoints amid southeasterly surface flow will be in place. Given 7-7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE may manifest amid appreciably curved and elongated hodographs, with 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear likely. By afternoon, thunderstorms should develop and intensify with diurnal heating. Given the aforementioned vertical shear/buoyancy, some supercell structures should develop, accompanied by an isolated severe wind/hail threat, and a tornado is also possible.
..Squitieri.. 10/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Saturday, October 24
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe wind/hail or a tornado are possible across portions of central New Mexico into Far West Texas on Saturday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 220718
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe wind/hail or a tornado are possible across portions of central New Mexico into Far West Texas on Saturday.
Synopsis
A mid-level cut-off low will traverse the Desert Southwest and impinge on the southern High Plains on Saturday. This will provoke a low-level mass response in the form of northwestward moisture advection through the day. Cooler temperatures and stronger flow aloft associated with the cut-off low will overspread the low-level moisture, resulting in enough buoyancy and shear overlap to support an isolated severe threat.
Portions of central NM into Far West TX
Through the afternoon, 40-50 kt south-southwesterly mid-level flow and 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates from the approaching cut-off low will overspread mid to upper 50s F surface dewpoints and backed southeasterly surface winds. With surface heating of the aforementioned moist low-level airmass, MLCAPE may exceed 1000 J/kg, perhaps locally exceeding 1500 J/kg in spots given locally greater insolation. Veering and strengthening flow with height will yield modestly curved and elongated hodographs, with over 40 kts of effective bulk shear expected. Multicells and perhaps a couple of supercells may develop and persist for at least a few hours before merging into a loosely organized line of thunderstorms. Storms should be at their strongest during their supercell stage, capable of producing isolated severe hail/wind and perhaps a tornado.
..Squitieri.. 10/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Sunday, October 25
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220755 SPC AC 220755
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper-air pattern is expected through much of next week, with multiple mid-level troughs expected to traverse the central and northern CONUS through the extended period. Surface troughing will accompany several of these passing upper waves, encouraging the development of at least scattered showers and thunderstorms. However, deterministic medium-range guidance shows minimal convective instability associated with these surface troughs, which should limit the potential for severe thunderstorms into next week.
..Squitieri.. 10/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, October 26
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220755 SPC AC 220755
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper-air pattern is expected through much of next week, with multiple mid-level troughs expected to traverse the central and northern CONUS through the extended period. Surface troughing will accompany several of these passing upper waves, encouraging the development of at least scattered showers and thunderstorms. However, deterministic medium-range guidance shows minimal convective instability associated with these surface troughs, which should limit the potential for severe thunderstorms into next week.
..Squitieri.. 10/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, October 27
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220755 SPC AC 220755
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper-air pattern is expected through much of next week, with multiple mid-level troughs expected to traverse the central and northern CONUS through the extended period. Surface troughing will accompany several of these passing upper waves, encouraging the development of at least scattered showers and thunderstorms. However, deterministic medium-range guidance shows minimal convective instability associated with these surface troughs, which should limit the potential for severe thunderstorms into next week.
..Squitieri.. 10/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, October 28
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220755 SPC AC 220755
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper-air pattern is expected through much of next week, with multiple mid-level troughs expected to traverse the central and northern CONUS through the extended period. Surface troughing will accompany several of these passing upper waves, encouraging the development of at least scattered showers and thunderstorms. However, deterministic medium-range guidance shows minimal convective instability associated with these surface troughs, which should limit the potential for severe thunderstorms into next week.
..Squitieri.. 10/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, October 29
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220755 SPC AC 220755
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper-air pattern is expected through much of next week, with multiple mid-level troughs expected to traverse the central and northern CONUS through the extended period. Surface troughing will accompany several of these passing upper waves, encouraging the development of at least scattered showers and thunderstorms. However, deterministic medium-range guidance shows minimal convective instability associated with these surface troughs, which should limit the potential for severe thunderstorms into next week.
..Squitieri.. 10/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, October 22
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Friday, October 23
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Saturday, October 24
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Sunday, October 25
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, October 26
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, October 27
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, October 28
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, October 29
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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