Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, January 20
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 210055
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026
Valid 210100Z - 211200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight.
DISCUSSION
A large-scale cyclonic flow pattern will remain in place over the U.S. this evening and tonight. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will be located from the Gulf Coast states northeastward to the Eastern Seaboard. A dry and cold airmass will remain over much of the continental U.S. through tonight, making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms.
..Broyles.. 01/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Wednesday, January 21
Outlook Summary
Widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible Wednesday into Wednesday evening across parts of southeastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 201645
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible Wednesday into Wednesday evening across parts of southeastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley.
Discussion
While an initially prominent mid-level ridge, centered offshore of the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia coast into Alaska, will undergo more notable weakening through this period, models indicate that large-scale downstream troughing will generally be maintained across much of interior and eastern North America. It appears that this will be reinforced by a strong short wave trough emerging from the Canadian Arctic latitudes, before digging around the western periphery of Hudson Bay, toward the central international border area. This is forecast to be accompanied by modest cyclogenesis across and northeast of the Great Lakes, and a more notable reinforcing cold intrusion into the Ohio and Missouri Valleys, in the wake of a preceding one reaching the Mid Atlantic, northern Gulf Coast states and Texas Gulf coastal plain by 12Z Wednesday
At the same time, it still appears that much of the southern tier of the U.S. will continue to come under the increasing influence of westerlies emanating from the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific. Within this regime, a notable developing mid-level low is forecast to slowly dig toward the southern California/northern Baja coast, downstream of a building short wave ridge over the mid-latitude eastern Pacific. While forecast soundings suggest that this may be preceded by an inland spreading band of weak convection, associated with mid/high-level moisture return from the lower latitude eastern Pacific, the modest and relatively compact mid-level cold core of the low is forecast to remain offshore through this period. This will minimize the risk for boundary-layer destabilization, and any appreciable potential for convection capable of producing lightning, across and inland of coastal areas.
Downstream, lower/mid-tropospheric moisture return is likely to continue across parts of southern/eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday through Wednesday night. Although, in lower levels, this will be off a still modifying western Gulf boundary layer, it appears that elevated inland moistening, beneath the southern periphery of colder mid-level air slowly retreating to somewhat higher latitudes, will contribute to weak elevated destabilization. Forecast soundings continue to suggest that this may become sufficient to support convection capable of producing lightning, mainly in a corridor from southeast Texas east-northeastward through the lower Mississippi Valley, aided by forcing for ascent associated with one or two short wave perturbations within the lingering cyclonic flow.
..Kerr.. 01/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Thursday, January 22
Outlook Summary
Aside from the risk for a couple of thunderstorms near southern Florida Atlantic coastal areas, potential for thunderstorms appears minimal across much of the U.S. Thursday through Thursday night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 201902
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Aside from the risk for a couple of thunderstorms near southern Florida Atlantic coastal areas, potential for thunderstorms appears minimal across much of the U.S. Thursday through Thursday night.
Discussion
Models indicate that a significant short wave trough emanating from the Arctic latitudes will continue digging across and southeast of the central Canadian/U.S. border through this period, reinforcing broad, cold mid-level troughing across the northern U.S. Great Plains through middle and northern Atlantic Seaboard. In lower latitudes, flow is forecast to remain broadly cyclonic as far south as the northern Gulf Basin, but with a continued slow/subtle warming in mid-levels across much of the Gulf Coast states, downstream of a slowly digging mid-level low offshore of the southern California/northern Baja coast. It appears that the modest and compact mid-level cold core of this low will remain offshore through at least this period, as a sharp upstream ridge builds a bit further northward through the mid-latitude eastern Pacific.
Beneath this regime, it appears that the primary frontal zone may remain quasi-stationary across the Carolinas through northern portions of the eastern Gulf Coast states. However, some further southward advancement is possible across the Ark-La-Miss and central Texas by late Thursday night, as a prominent cold surface ridge continues to build along an axis across the Canadian Prairies through middle and lower Missouri Valley.
Some further low-level moistening is possible to the south of this front, off a slowly modifying Gulf and southwestern Atlantic boundary layer. However, beneath slowly warming mid-levels, with weak mid/upper support for convective development, the risk for thunderstorms appears limited Thursday through Thursday night.
Southern Florida
A consensus of latest available model output, ranging from ECENS and GEFS convective precipitation forecasts to NAM/Rapid Refresh forecast soundings and NAM/RRFS convection allowing guidance, suggests that at least minimum threshold thunderstorm probabilities may become focused during this period in the vicinity of weak surface troughing developing near southern Florida Atlantic coastal areas. This appears possible in response to increasing boundary-layer destabilization and convergence, perhaps aided by forcing associated with weak perturbations within the subtropical westerlies.
..Kerr.. 01/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Friday, January 23
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, January 23 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, January 24 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, January 25 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, January 26 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, January 27 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200852 SPC AC 200852
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
An arctic airmass will settle across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies on Days 4-5/Fri-Sat. Resulting strong high pressure and cold/dry/stable conditions will persist over much of the country throughout the period. However, some thunderstorm potential could develop across portions of the Gulf Coast states/Southeast on Days 4-6/Fri-Sun as a surface cold front progresses east/southeast. Modified Gulf moisture will be in place near the immediate Gulf Coast. Warm advection in the low-levels could result in isolated thunderstorms near or just to the cool side of the cold front Friday afternoon across parts of TX, spreading east/northeast across the Southeast through Saturday and early Sunday. Instability should remain weak as better moisture remains offshore, and due to convection becoming undercut by the cold front.
..Leitman.. 01/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, January 24
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, January 23 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, January 24 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, January 25 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, January 26 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, January 27 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200852 SPC AC 200852
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
An arctic airmass will settle across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies on Days 4-5/Fri-Sat. Resulting strong high pressure and cold/dry/stable conditions will persist over much of the country throughout the period. However, some thunderstorm potential could develop across portions of the Gulf Coast states/Southeast on Days 4-6/Fri-Sun as a surface cold front progresses east/southeast. Modified Gulf moisture will be in place near the immediate Gulf Coast. Warm advection in the low-levels could result in isolated thunderstorms near or just to the cool side of the cold front Friday afternoon across parts of TX, spreading east/northeast across the Southeast through Saturday and early Sunday. Instability should remain weak as better moisture remains offshore, and due to convection becoming undercut by the cold front.
..Leitman.. 01/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, January 25
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, January 23 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, January 24 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, January 25 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, January 26 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, January 27 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200852 SPC AC 200852
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
An arctic airmass will settle across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies on Days 4-5/Fri-Sat. Resulting strong high pressure and cold/dry/stable conditions will persist over much of the country throughout the period. However, some thunderstorm potential could develop across portions of the Gulf Coast states/Southeast on Days 4-6/Fri-Sun as a surface cold front progresses east/southeast. Modified Gulf moisture will be in place near the immediate Gulf Coast. Warm advection in the low-levels could result in isolated thunderstorms near or just to the cool side of the cold front Friday afternoon across parts of TX, spreading east/northeast across the Southeast through Saturday and early Sunday. Instability should remain weak as better moisture remains offshore, and due to convection becoming undercut by the cold front.
..Leitman.. 01/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, January 26
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, January 23 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, January 24 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, January 25 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, January 26 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, January 27 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200852 SPC AC 200852
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
An arctic airmass will settle across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies on Days 4-5/Fri-Sat. Resulting strong high pressure and cold/dry/stable conditions will persist over much of the country throughout the period. However, some thunderstorm potential could develop across portions of the Gulf Coast states/Southeast on Days 4-6/Fri-Sun as a surface cold front progresses east/southeast. Modified Gulf moisture will be in place near the immediate Gulf Coast. Warm advection in the low-levels could result in isolated thunderstorms near or just to the cool side of the cold front Friday afternoon across parts of TX, spreading east/northeast across the Southeast through Saturday and early Sunday. Instability should remain weak as better moisture remains offshore, and due to convection becoming undercut by the cold front.
..Leitman.. 01/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, January 27
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, January 23 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, January 24 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, January 25 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, January 26 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, January 27 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200852 SPC AC 200852
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
An arctic airmass will settle across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies on Days 4-5/Fri-Sat. Resulting strong high pressure and cold/dry/stable conditions will persist over much of the country throughout the period. However, some thunderstorm potential could develop across portions of the Gulf Coast states/Southeast on Days 4-6/Fri-Sun as a surface cold front progresses east/southeast. Modified Gulf moisture will be in place near the immediate Gulf Coast. Warm advection in the low-levels could result in isolated thunderstorms near or just to the cool side of the cold front Friday afternoon across parts of TX, spreading east/northeast across the Southeast through Saturday and early Sunday. Instability should remain weak as better moisture remains offshore, and due to convection becoming undercut by the cold front.
..Leitman.. 01/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, January 20
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Wednesday, January 21
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Thursday, January 22
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Friday, January 23
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, January 24
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, January 25
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, January 26
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, January 27
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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