Severe Weather Outlook

show me my personal outlook →

National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Friday, June 5

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected to develop late this afternoon and evening from parts of the central Plains into the mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. Isolated severe wind gusts and hail will also be possible in parts of the upper Mississippi Valley from this afternoon into the early evening.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 050559

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS…AND MID MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected to develop late this afternoon and evening from parts of the central Plains into the mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. Isolated severe wind gusts and hail will also be possible in parts of the upper Mississippi Valley from this afternoon into the early evening.

Central Plains/Mid Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valleys

At mid-levels, a shortwave trough and an associated jet streak will move eastward today from the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a low will deepen across northeast Kansas, with a trough in place from the low northeastward into western Iowa. Moisture advection will occur to the east of the low across the mid Missouri Valley, where surface dewpoints will increase into the upper 60s and lower 70s F. As surface temperatures warm today, a pocket of strong instability will develop from northeast Kansas and southeast Nebraska into southwest Iowa. Convective initiation will be hampered by a capping inversion in place throughout much of the afternoon. The cap is forecast to weaken during the late afternoon or early evening, which will allow for convective initiation. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the northern edge of the stronger instability near the surface trough. This convection will likely move east-southeastward across eastern Nebraska and south-central Iowa during the early to mid evening. Storms will eventually affect parts of northern Missouri and north-central Illinois.

RAP forecast soundings in the early evening to the south of Omaha and Des Moines have MLCAPE in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range with 0-6 km shear around 35 knots, and 500-700 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. This environment will support supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant supercells. Cell coverage is expected to steadily increase during the early to mid evening. This should result in a transition to linear mode with a line gradually becoming organized. During this process, the potential for wind damage is expected to increase, and a few wind gusts could exceed 70 mph along the more intense parts of the line. The wind-damage threat will likely develop eastward across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley during the mid to late evening, as either the line approaches from the west or more storms initiate.

### Upper Mississippi Valley

A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley today, where a moist and unstable airmass will be in place. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the trough during the afternoon across parts of central Minnesota and central to northern Wisconsin. These storms will move eastward toward the Great Lakes during the late afternoon and early evening. MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range, along with 0-6 km shear of 30 to 35 knots will support an isolated severe threat. A potential for severe wind gusts and hail will be possible with the stronger short multicell line segments.

..Broyles/Lyons.. 06/05/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Saturday, June 6

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds are possible from portions of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into the Northeast, and over the northern High Plains. More isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging winds are possible across parts of the southern Plains and the lower Missouri Valley into Mid Mississippi Valley.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 050536

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND…AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds are possible from portions of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into the Northeast, and over the northern High Plains. More isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging winds are possible across parts of the southern Plains and the lower Missouri Valley into Mid Mississippi Valley.

Synopsis

A short-wave trough initially from James Bay into the Great Lakes Saturday morning is forecast to amplify while translating through southern Quebec and the Northeast. Associated mid/upper-level jet streaks within the base of the strengthening trough are forecast to overspread the upper OH Valley through southern New England, enhancing vertical shear and forcing for ascent in those areas. Elsewhere, a jet streak will round the base of a deep trough over the Canadian Rockies into Pacific Northwest, with the trough axis pivoting east through the Columbia Basin toward the northern Rockies. Meanwhile, a lower-latitude trough will move through the southern and central Plains, with a belt of enhanced mid/upper-level flow extending from southwest TX through the ArkLaTex into Ozark Plateau during the peak of the diurnal heating cycle.

At the surface, an initially diffuse cold front associated with the Great Lakes/Northeast short-wave trough will slowly advance through the Great Lakes, northern OH Valley, and St. Lawrence Valley into northern New England. Over the northern High Plains, a surface low is forecast to deepen along a cold front emerging from the northern Rockies.

### Great Lakes and OH Valley into the Northeast

Areas of showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Saturday morning within a broad zone of warm advection and moisture flux occurring along a westerly low-level jet. A subset of those thunderstorms are likely to persist and gradually intensify from late morning into afternoon. Additional, diurnally enhanced storms are expected to develop within preferred zones of confluence within the weakly capped warm sector, which will destabilize from west-to-east over the course of the day.

The 00z HREF indicates a corridor of mean SBCAPE of 1000-1500+ J/kg developing by afternoon from the OH Valley into southern New England, which will coincide with steadily strengthening deep-layer shear. As such, the potential exists for organized storm modes, including bowing line segments and supercells capable of swaths of wind damage and large hail during the afternoon and evening hours. The greatest supercell potential is expected to evolve across the upper OH Valley, where the large hail is most probable, along with the threat for a brief tornado or two.

### Northern High Plains

Late-arriving forcing for ascent and more robust boundary-layer moisture content are expected to delay thunderstorm development until late afternoon or evening in the vicinity of the surface low and front situated along the MT-ND Border. The presence of a moderately unstable air mass and steadily strengthening vertical shear are expected to support supercell storm modes with an attendant threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. The severe-weather threat may continue into the overnight hours, centered along the low-level jet axis.

### Red River Valley into southwest Texas

As mentioned in the synopsis, a belt of enhanced mid-level flow is forecast within the southern/southeastern periphery of the upper low, which will enhance vertical shear to some extent. Slightly cooler temperatures aloft coupled with a warm and moist boundary layer will support a moderately unstable air mass in areas unaffected by early storms and lingering cloud cover. Forecast soundings indicate relatively weak capping, which should permit increasing storm coverage by afternoon along any pre-existing boundaries. The overall environment appears supportive of multicell storms capable of isolated occurrences of large hail and locally strong wind gusts during the afternoon and evening hours.

### Lower Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valleys

Moderate to strong afternoon instability is forecast to develop along and south of the trailing surface front or convective outflow boundary remnant from Friday night thunderstorms. Weak low-level warm advection coupled with the growing influence of a mid-level trough approaching from the southwest are expected to support widely scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon. While vertical shear is expected to remain relatively weak, the degree of instability will support vigorous up/downdrafts capable of marginally severe hail and/or locally damaging wind gusts.

..Mead.. 06/05/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Sunday, June 7

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040852 SPC AC 040852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2026

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

DISCUSSION

Day4/Sunday

A short-wave trough initially from the lee of the Canadian Rockies into the northern Rockies is forecast to lift northeast into central Canada, while a lower-latitude wave moves through the central and southern Plains toward the MS Valley. Elsewhere, a short-wave trough will traverse the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front will slowly advance across the northern Plains, while a separate cold front moves south through the Mid-Atlantic.

The strongest mid/upper-level winds and associated vertical shear will lag the northern Plains cold front to the west; however, the presence of moderate to strong instability within the warm sector may compensate, yielding the potential for an organized severe-weather event Sunday afternoon and evening. Elsewhere, isolated to widely scattered severe storms appear possible along the Mid-Atlantic cold front, as well as across lower elevations of central and southern Plains into Ozark Plateau, in association with the mid-level trough.

### Day5/Monday

Ensemble mean and deterministic model solutions are in good agreement in suggesting that a mid-level trough will move onto the West Coast, with a downstream belt of stronger winds remaining confined to the Interior West. At the surface, a cold front initially from the ND-MN Red River Valley into central High Plains will weaken through the day in response to falling pressures over the Rockies. Isolated severe storms appear possible along the segment of the front immediately east of a surface low over western KS where strong instability is forecast. However, generally weak forcing for ascent and marginal vertical shear may limit the potential for an organized severe-weather episode.

### Day6/Tuesday

The ensemble mean and deterministic model solutions remain in relatively good agreement in depicting the continued amplification of the mid-level trough over the western U.S., with a belt of stronger winds aloft overspreading the northern Plains. At the surface, there is reasonably good ensemble clustering in the location of a deepening lee cyclone over the northern High Plains, with a lee trough extending through the central into southern High Plains. While large-scale forcing for ascent remains somewhat nebulous, low-level convergence in the vicinity of the surface low and lee trough should be sufficient to initiate afternoon/evening thunderstorms within an environment favoring the potential for a concentrated area of severe weather.

### Day7-8/Wednesday and Thursday

The ensemble mean solutions suggest the main trough becoming quasi-stationary over the Interior West. There is considerably more spread in the deterministic models, especially by Thursday, in the location and geometry of the mid-level trough, as well as any smaller-scale disturbances embedded within it. At the surface, there is fairly large spread in ensemble member low pressure positions, and the location of any associated boundaries. In general, it appears that some severe-weather threat will continue across the northern Plains; however, confidence in a more specific details is currently too low to delineate an area.

..Mead.. 06/04/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Monday, June 8

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040852 SPC AC 040852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2026

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

DISCUSSION

Day4/Sunday

A short-wave trough initially from the lee of the Canadian Rockies into the northern Rockies is forecast to lift northeast into central Canada, while a lower-latitude wave moves through the central and southern Plains toward the MS Valley. Elsewhere, a short-wave trough will traverse the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front will slowly advance across the northern Plains, while a separate cold front moves south through the Mid-Atlantic.

The strongest mid/upper-level winds and associated vertical shear will lag the northern Plains cold front to the west; however, the presence of moderate to strong instability within the warm sector may compensate, yielding the potential for an organized severe-weather event Sunday afternoon and evening. Elsewhere, isolated to widely scattered severe storms appear possible along the Mid-Atlantic cold front, as well as across lower elevations of central and southern Plains into Ozark Plateau, in association with the mid-level trough.

### Day5/Monday

Ensemble mean and deterministic model solutions are in good agreement in suggesting that a mid-level trough will move onto the West Coast, with a downstream belt of stronger winds remaining confined to the Interior West. At the surface, a cold front initially from the ND-MN Red River Valley into central High Plains will weaken through the day in response to falling pressures over the Rockies. Isolated severe storms appear possible along the segment of the front immediately east of a surface low over western KS where strong instability is forecast. However, generally weak forcing for ascent and marginal vertical shear may limit the potential for an organized severe-weather episode.

### Day6/Tuesday

The ensemble mean and deterministic model solutions remain in relatively good agreement in depicting the continued amplification of the mid-level trough over the western U.S., with a belt of stronger winds aloft overspreading the northern Plains. At the surface, there is reasonably good ensemble clustering in the location of a deepening lee cyclone over the northern High Plains, with a lee trough extending through the central into southern High Plains. While large-scale forcing for ascent remains somewhat nebulous, low-level convergence in the vicinity of the surface low and lee trough should be sufficient to initiate afternoon/evening thunderstorms within an environment favoring the potential for a concentrated area of severe weather.

### Day7-8/Wednesday and Thursday

The ensemble mean solutions suggest the main trough becoming quasi-stationary over the Interior West. There is considerably more spread in the deterministic models, especially by Thursday, in the location and geometry of the mid-level trough, as well as any smaller-scale disturbances embedded within it. At the surface, there is fairly large spread in ensemble member low pressure positions, and the location of any associated boundaries. In general, it appears that some severe-weather threat will continue across the northern Plains; however, confidence in a more specific details is currently too low to delineate an area.

..Mead.. 06/04/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Tuesday, June 9

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040852 SPC AC 040852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2026

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

DISCUSSION

Day4/Sunday

A short-wave trough initially from the lee of the Canadian Rockies into the northern Rockies is forecast to lift northeast into central Canada, while a lower-latitude wave moves through the central and southern Plains toward the MS Valley. Elsewhere, a short-wave trough will traverse the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front will slowly advance across the northern Plains, while a separate cold front moves south through the Mid-Atlantic.

The strongest mid/upper-level winds and associated vertical shear will lag the northern Plains cold front to the west; however, the presence of moderate to strong instability within the warm sector may compensate, yielding the potential for an organized severe-weather event Sunday afternoon and evening. Elsewhere, isolated to widely scattered severe storms appear possible along the Mid-Atlantic cold front, as well as across lower elevations of central and southern Plains into Ozark Plateau, in association with the mid-level trough.

### Day5/Monday

Ensemble mean and deterministic model solutions are in good agreement in suggesting that a mid-level trough will move onto the West Coast, with a downstream belt of stronger winds remaining confined to the Interior West. At the surface, a cold front initially from the ND-MN Red River Valley into central High Plains will weaken through the day in response to falling pressures over the Rockies. Isolated severe storms appear possible along the segment of the front immediately east of a surface low over western KS where strong instability is forecast. However, generally weak forcing for ascent and marginal vertical shear may limit the potential for an organized severe-weather episode.

### Day6/Tuesday

The ensemble mean and deterministic model solutions remain in relatively good agreement in depicting the continued amplification of the mid-level trough over the western U.S., with a belt of stronger winds aloft overspreading the northern Plains. At the surface, there is reasonably good ensemble clustering in the location of a deepening lee cyclone over the northern High Plains, with a lee trough extending through the central into southern High Plains. While large-scale forcing for ascent remains somewhat nebulous, low-level convergence in the vicinity of the surface low and lee trough should be sufficient to initiate afternoon/evening thunderstorms within an environment favoring the potential for a concentrated area of severe weather.

### Day7-8/Wednesday and Thursday

The ensemble mean solutions suggest the main trough becoming quasi-stationary over the Interior West. There is considerably more spread in the deterministic models, especially by Thursday, in the location and geometry of the mid-level trough, as well as any smaller-scale disturbances embedded within it. At the surface, there is fairly large spread in ensemble member low pressure positions, and the location of any associated boundaries. In general, it appears that some severe-weather threat will continue across the northern Plains; however, confidence in a more specific details is currently too low to delineate an area.

..Mead.. 06/04/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Wednesday, June 10

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040852 SPC AC 040852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2026

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

DISCUSSION

Day4/Sunday

A short-wave trough initially from the lee of the Canadian Rockies into the northern Rockies is forecast to lift northeast into central Canada, while a lower-latitude wave moves through the central and southern Plains toward the MS Valley. Elsewhere, a short-wave trough will traverse the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front will slowly advance across the northern Plains, while a separate cold front moves south through the Mid-Atlantic.

The strongest mid/upper-level winds and associated vertical shear will lag the northern Plains cold front to the west; however, the presence of moderate to strong instability within the warm sector may compensate, yielding the potential for an organized severe-weather event Sunday afternoon and evening. Elsewhere, isolated to widely scattered severe storms appear possible along the Mid-Atlantic cold front, as well as across lower elevations of central and southern Plains into Ozark Plateau, in association with the mid-level trough.

### Day5/Monday

Ensemble mean and deterministic model solutions are in good agreement in suggesting that a mid-level trough will move onto the West Coast, with a downstream belt of stronger winds remaining confined to the Interior West. At the surface, a cold front initially from the ND-MN Red River Valley into central High Plains will weaken through the day in response to falling pressures over the Rockies. Isolated severe storms appear possible along the segment of the front immediately east of a surface low over western KS where strong instability is forecast. However, generally weak forcing for ascent and marginal vertical shear may limit the potential for an organized severe-weather episode.

### Day6/Tuesday

The ensemble mean and deterministic model solutions remain in relatively good agreement in depicting the continued amplification of the mid-level trough over the western U.S., with a belt of stronger winds aloft overspreading the northern Plains. At the surface, there is reasonably good ensemble clustering in the location of a deepening lee cyclone over the northern High Plains, with a lee trough extending through the central into southern High Plains. While large-scale forcing for ascent remains somewhat nebulous, low-level convergence in the vicinity of the surface low and lee trough should be sufficient to initiate afternoon/evening thunderstorms within an environment favoring the potential for a concentrated area of severe weather.

### Day7-8/Wednesday and Thursday

The ensemble mean solutions suggest the main trough becoming quasi-stationary over the Interior West. There is considerably more spread in the deterministic models, especially by Thursday, in the location and geometry of the mid-level trough, as well as any smaller-scale disturbances embedded within it. At the surface, there is fairly large spread in ensemble member low pressure positions, and the location of any associated boundaries. In general, it appears that some severe-weather threat will continue across the northern Plains; however, confidence in a more specific details is currently too low to delineate an area.

..Mead.. 06/04/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Thursday, June 11

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040852 SPC AC 040852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2026

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

DISCUSSION

Day4/Sunday

A short-wave trough initially from the lee of the Canadian Rockies into the northern Rockies is forecast to lift northeast into central Canada, while a lower-latitude wave moves through the central and southern Plains toward the MS Valley. Elsewhere, a short-wave trough will traverse the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front will slowly advance across the northern Plains, while a separate cold front moves south through the Mid-Atlantic.

The strongest mid/upper-level winds and associated vertical shear will lag the northern Plains cold front to the west; however, the presence of moderate to strong instability within the warm sector may compensate, yielding the potential for an organized severe-weather event Sunday afternoon and evening. Elsewhere, isolated to widely scattered severe storms appear possible along the Mid-Atlantic cold front, as well as across lower elevations of central and southern Plains into Ozark Plateau, in association with the mid-level trough.

### Day5/Monday

Ensemble mean and deterministic model solutions are in good agreement in suggesting that a mid-level trough will move onto the West Coast, with a downstream belt of stronger winds remaining confined to the Interior West. At the surface, a cold front initially from the ND-MN Red River Valley into central High Plains will weaken through the day in response to falling pressures over the Rockies. Isolated severe storms appear possible along the segment of the front immediately east of a surface low over western KS where strong instability is forecast. However, generally weak forcing for ascent and marginal vertical shear may limit the potential for an organized severe-weather episode.

### Day6/Tuesday

The ensemble mean and deterministic model solutions remain in relatively good agreement in depicting the continued amplification of the mid-level trough over the western U.S., with a belt of stronger winds aloft overspreading the northern Plains. At the surface, there is reasonably good ensemble clustering in the location of a deepening lee cyclone over the northern High Plains, with a lee trough extending through the central into southern High Plains. While large-scale forcing for ascent remains somewhat nebulous, low-level convergence in the vicinity of the surface low and lee trough should be sufficient to initiate afternoon/evening thunderstorms within an environment favoring the potential for a concentrated area of severe weather.

### Day7-8/Wednesday and Thursday

The ensemble mean solutions suggest the main trough becoming quasi-stationary over the Interior West. There is considerably more spread in the deterministic models, especially by Thursday, in the location and geometry of the mid-level trough, as well as any smaller-scale disturbances embedded within it. At the surface, there is fairly large spread in ensemble member low pressure positions, and the location of any associated boundaries. In general, it appears that some severe-weather threat will continue across the northern Plains; however, confidence in a more specific details is currently too low to delineate an area.

..Mead.. 06/04/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

National Risk Overview

Friday, June 5

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Saturday, June 6

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Sunday, June 7

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Monday, June 8

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Tuesday, June 9

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Wednesday, June 10

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Thursday, June 11

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

---

Your Severe Outlook

---

---

About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.

• tornado hq - live severe weather warnings
• cyclocane - hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones
• tornado solitaire - play cards while you monitor the US severe weather threat
• tertremo - live view of earthquakes around the world
• earthquake solitaire - get live earthquake updates as you play your favorite card game