Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, September 27
Outlook Summary
Organized severe storms are not expected through early Monday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 271630
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026
Valid 271630Z - 281200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Organized severe storms are not expected through early Monday.
Synopsis
An occluded cyclone will slowly weaken near the northern Mid-Atlantic coast, with lingering potential for elevated convection and isolated lightning flashes to its northeast across southeast New England. Farther west, weak ridging aloft will extend from the southern High Plains toward MN. A few thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon/evening along a diffuse surface boundary from north TX into southern OK. The strongest storms may produce gusty outflow winds given steep low-level lapse rates with afternoon mixing, but the severe threat appears too low to justify adding severe-wind probabilities.
Slightly elevated convection is ongoing across central SD in a zone of weak low-level frontogenesis, coincident with midlevel lapse rates near 8 C/km and MUCAPE close to 1000 J/kg. Deep-layer vertical shear is on the lower margins for storm organization, but it appears this convection has already peaked. Additional elevated thunderstorms are expected overnight from western SD into ND as low-level warm advection increases in association with embedded speed maxima downstream from a midlevel trough moving across CA/NV. While an isolated hail report could occur overnight as far northeast as southwest ND, the overall threat is low and when combined with the questionable threat for diurnal convection across the central High Plains, the MRGL area has been removed.
..Thompson/Chalmers.. 09/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Monday, September 28
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. on Monday or Monday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 270556
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. on Monday or Monday night.
DISCUSSION
At mid-levels, a ridge will be in place over the central U.S. on Monday, as a trough moves into the Desert Southwest. Between these two features, moisture and instability will be sufficient for scattered thunderstorm development from parts of the Desert Southwest and Intermountain West eastward into the Great Plains. Instability is forecast to remain relatively weak, and severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. Monday or Monday night.
..Broyles.. 09/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Tuesday, September 29
Outlook Summary
No severe thunderstorms are forecast across the U.S. on Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 270722
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
No severe thunderstorms are forecast across the U.S. on Tuesday and Tuesday night.
DISCUSSION
At mid-levels on Tuesday, zonal westerly flow will be in place over the northwestern U.S. with a trough in the northern Plains. An upper-level low will move across the Desert Southwest. In the vicinity of this system, scattered thunderstorms will develop during the day over much of the Southwest. More isolated storms will be possible from the central Rockies northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Instability is expected to remain relatively weak, and no severe threat is forecast across the continental U.S. Tuesday and Tuesday night.
..Broyles.. 09/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Wednesday, September 30
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, October 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, October 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, October 3 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, October 4 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270914 SPC AC 270914
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0414 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6
During the mid-week, an upper-level low is forecast to move slowly eastward from the southern Rockies into the southern Plains. As the system approaches, low-level moisture will advect northward into the southern and central Plains. A pocket of moderate instability may develop over the southern High Plains by Wednesday afternoon. As surface heating is maximized Wednesday afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to form along and near the instability axis. A mid-level jet, associated with the approaching system, is forecast to move into the southern High Plains in the afternoon. This feature will increase deep-layer shear. The timing of the mid-level jet is still in question, but if the mid-level jet can move into the southern Plains soon enough, then a severe threat could develop. Under this scenario, isolated supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible.
From Thursday into Friday, the upper-level trough is forecast to remain over the southern High Plains. Ahead of the slow-moving system, a moist and somewhat unstable airmass is forecast to be in place both Thursday and Friday over parts of east-central Texas. On these two days, deep-layer shear may be strong enough for an isolated severe threat, mainly with storms that form near the instability axis.
Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8
Over the weekend, an upper-level trough is forecast to move across the central U.S. Ahead of the trough, a moist and somewhat unstable airmass is forecast to be in place over much of the Southeast, where scattered to numerous thunderstorms will be possible each day. Of the two days, the strongest instability is forecast to be on Sunday, when an isolated severe threat will be possible. Uncertainty regarding the spatial extent and magnitude is substantial at this range.
..Broyles.. 09/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, October 1
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, October 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, October 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, October 3 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, October 4 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270914 SPC AC 270914
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0414 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6
During the mid-week, an upper-level low is forecast to move slowly eastward from the southern Rockies into the southern Plains. As the system approaches, low-level moisture will advect northward into the southern and central Plains. A pocket of moderate instability may develop over the southern High Plains by Wednesday afternoon. As surface heating is maximized Wednesday afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to form along and near the instability axis. A mid-level jet, associated with the approaching system, is forecast to move into the southern High Plains in the afternoon. This feature will increase deep-layer shear. The timing of the mid-level jet is still in question, but if the mid-level jet can move into the southern Plains soon enough, then a severe threat could develop. Under this scenario, isolated supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible.
From Thursday into Friday, the upper-level trough is forecast to remain over the southern High Plains. Ahead of the slow-moving system, a moist and somewhat unstable airmass is forecast to be in place both Thursday and Friday over parts of east-central Texas. On these two days, deep-layer shear may be strong enough for an isolated severe threat, mainly with storms that form near the instability axis.
Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8
Over the weekend, an upper-level trough is forecast to move across the central U.S. Ahead of the trough, a moist and somewhat unstable airmass is forecast to be in place over much of the Southeast, where scattered to numerous thunderstorms will be possible each day. Of the two days, the strongest instability is forecast to be on Sunday, when an isolated severe threat will be possible. Uncertainty regarding the spatial extent and magnitude is substantial at this range.
..Broyles.. 09/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, October 2
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, October 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, October 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, October 3 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, October 4 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270914 SPC AC 270914
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0414 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6
During the mid-week, an upper-level low is forecast to move slowly eastward from the southern Rockies into the southern Plains. As the system approaches, low-level moisture will advect northward into the southern and central Plains. A pocket of moderate instability may develop over the southern High Plains by Wednesday afternoon. As surface heating is maximized Wednesday afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to form along and near the instability axis. A mid-level jet, associated with the approaching system, is forecast to move into the southern High Plains in the afternoon. This feature will increase deep-layer shear. The timing of the mid-level jet is still in question, but if the mid-level jet can move into the southern Plains soon enough, then a severe threat could develop. Under this scenario, isolated supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible.
From Thursday into Friday, the upper-level trough is forecast to remain over the southern High Plains. Ahead of the slow-moving system, a moist and somewhat unstable airmass is forecast to be in place both Thursday and Friday over parts of east-central Texas. On these two days, deep-layer shear may be strong enough for an isolated severe threat, mainly with storms that form near the instability axis.
Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8
Over the weekend, an upper-level trough is forecast to move across the central U.S. Ahead of the trough, a moist and somewhat unstable airmass is forecast to be in place over much of the Southeast, where scattered to numerous thunderstorms will be possible each day. Of the two days, the strongest instability is forecast to be on Sunday, when an isolated severe threat will be possible. Uncertainty regarding the spatial extent and magnitude is substantial at this range.
..Broyles.. 09/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, October 3
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, October 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, October 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, October 3 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, October 4 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270914 SPC AC 270914
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0414 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6
During the mid-week, an upper-level low is forecast to move slowly eastward from the southern Rockies into the southern Plains. As the system approaches, low-level moisture will advect northward into the southern and central Plains. A pocket of moderate instability may develop over the southern High Plains by Wednesday afternoon. As surface heating is maximized Wednesday afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to form along and near the instability axis. A mid-level jet, associated with the approaching system, is forecast to move into the southern High Plains in the afternoon. This feature will increase deep-layer shear. The timing of the mid-level jet is still in question, but if the mid-level jet can move into the southern Plains soon enough, then a severe threat could develop. Under this scenario, isolated supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible.
From Thursday into Friday, the upper-level trough is forecast to remain over the southern High Plains. Ahead of the slow-moving system, a moist and somewhat unstable airmass is forecast to be in place both Thursday and Friday over parts of east-central Texas. On these two days, deep-layer shear may be strong enough for an isolated severe threat, mainly with storms that form near the instability axis.
Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8
Over the weekend, an upper-level trough is forecast to move across the central U.S. Ahead of the trough, a moist and somewhat unstable airmass is forecast to be in place over much of the Southeast, where scattered to numerous thunderstorms will be possible each day. Of the two days, the strongest instability is forecast to be on Sunday, when an isolated severe threat will be possible. Uncertainty regarding the spatial extent and magnitude is substantial at this range.
..Broyles.. 09/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, October 4
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, October 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, October 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, October 3 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, October 4 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270914 SPC AC 270914
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0414 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6
During the mid-week, an upper-level low is forecast to move slowly eastward from the southern Rockies into the southern Plains. As the system approaches, low-level moisture will advect northward into the southern and central Plains. A pocket of moderate instability may develop over the southern High Plains by Wednesday afternoon. As surface heating is maximized Wednesday afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to form along and near the instability axis. A mid-level jet, associated with the approaching system, is forecast to move into the southern High Plains in the afternoon. This feature will increase deep-layer shear. The timing of the mid-level jet is still in question, but if the mid-level jet can move into the southern Plains soon enough, then a severe threat could develop. Under this scenario, isolated supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible.
From Thursday into Friday, the upper-level trough is forecast to remain over the southern High Plains. Ahead of the slow-moving system, a moist and somewhat unstable airmass is forecast to be in place both Thursday and Friday over parts of east-central Texas. On these two days, deep-layer shear may be strong enough for an isolated severe threat, mainly with storms that form near the instability axis.
Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8
Over the weekend, an upper-level trough is forecast to move across the central U.S. Ahead of the trough, a moist and somewhat unstable airmass is forecast to be in place over much of the Southeast, where scattered to numerous thunderstorms will be possible each day. Of the two days, the strongest instability is forecast to be on Sunday, when an isolated severe threat will be possible. Uncertainty regarding the spatial extent and magnitude is substantial at this range.
..Broyles.. 09/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, September 27
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Monday, September 28
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, September 29
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Wednesday, September 30
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, October 1
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, October 2
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, October 3
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, October 4
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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