Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, January 28
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 290047
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026
Valid 290100Z - 291200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
Discussion
The prevalence of cold/continental trajectories, especially east of the Rockies, will preclude thunderstorm development through tonight.
..Guyer.. 01/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Thursday, January 29
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorm probabilities across the U.S. appear less than 10 percent for Thursday through Thursday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 281608
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorm probabilities across the U.S. appear less than 10 percent for Thursday through Thursday night.
Discussion
Models indicate that mid/upper ridging will build inland of the Pacific coast, across the Sierra Nevada through the Canadian Rockies and western Prairies, through this period. As this occurs, a series of short wave perturbations emerging from evolving large-scale upstream troughing are forecast to approach the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest, within deep-layer southwesterly flow. Continuing low/mid-level moisture return is likely to support another round of precipitation with an inland migrating baroclinic wave. However, beneath relatively warm mid/upper levels, saturating thermodynamic profiles appear unlikely to become supportive of thunderstorm development.
Meanwhile, an inland migrating short wave trough, preceding the building ridge, is forecast to dig across the Great Basin and Rockies, through the south central Great Plains and lower Mississippi Valley by late Thursday night, as a much more prominent short wave trough pivoting southwest of Hudson Bay progresses across the international border into the Upper Midwest. Beneath a confluent regime in the wake of the latter perturbation, it appears that another cold surface ridge will begin building across the international border through the northern Great Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. In advance of the perturbation emerging from the West, a weak developing lee surface low may be maintained across the Red River and lower Mississippi Valleys, while perhaps another weak wave develops along a remnant preceding frontal zone across the northwestern Gulf Basin. However, models indicate that western Gulf boundary-layer modification and inland moisture return will be quite limited, with little potential for destabilization supportive of an appreciable risk for thunderstorm activity.
..Kerr.. 01/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Friday, January 30
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorm probabilities across the U.S. for Friday through Friday night appear less than 10 percent.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 281819
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorm probabilities across the U.S. for Friday through Friday night appear less than 10 percent.
Discussion
Models indicate that large-scale mid-level ridging will generally be maintained across the U.S. Pacific coast through Rockies, with short wave ridging also building along the British Columbia coast, in the wake of a short wave trough progressing inland across the Canadian and adjacent northern U.S. Rockies. Precipitation accompanying an associated baroclinic zone may linger into Friday across the Pacific Northwest, with perhaps an upstream warm frontal band also approaching coastal Washington by late Friday night. However, forecast soundings suggest that thermodynamic profiles will not become sufficiently unstable to support an appreciable risk for thunderstorm activity.
Downstream, several short wave perturbations, including one vigorous impulse emerging from the Hudson Bay vicinity, are forecast to consolidate into amplifying, positively tilted large-scale troughing across much of the lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf Basin through southern Atlantic Seaboard by late Friday night. There remains notable spread concerning associated surface cyclogenesis, but it appears that this will remain weak across the eastern Gulf and adjacent Southeast, before undergoing notable strengthening offshore of the southern/mid Atlantic coast after 12Z Saturday. Along and south of a strengthening frontal zone, a deepening moist boundary-layer may become conditionally unstable across parts of the Florida Keys and southeastern Florida Peninsula by Friday. However, forecast soundings indicate that relatively warm and dry air in mid/upper levels will tend to suppress thunderstorm development.
..Kerr.. 01/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Saturday, January 31
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, January 31 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, February 1 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, February 2 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, February 3 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, February 4 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280956 SPC AC 280956
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe weather is unlikely through the extended forecast period. A highly amplified mid-level flow pattern over the CONUS will continue through this weekend and into the first part of next week. A prominent upper low will amplify over the East Coast as a strong surface cyclone develops offshore. Ridging over the western US will support strong high pressure and a cold/dry continental air mass over much of the US. This will largely suppress inland moisture transport, outside of far south FL, and subsequent thunderstorm potential for the next several days.
..Lyons.. 01/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, February 1
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, January 31 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, February 1 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, February 2 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, February 3 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, February 4 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280956 SPC AC 280956
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe weather is unlikely through the extended forecast period. A highly amplified mid-level flow pattern over the CONUS will continue through this weekend and into the first part of next week. A prominent upper low will amplify over the East Coast as a strong surface cyclone develops offshore. Ridging over the western US will support strong high pressure and a cold/dry continental air mass over much of the US. This will largely suppress inland moisture transport, outside of far south FL, and subsequent thunderstorm potential for the next several days.
..Lyons.. 01/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, February 2
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, January 31 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, February 1 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, February 2 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, February 3 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, February 4 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280956 SPC AC 280956
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe weather is unlikely through the extended forecast period. A highly amplified mid-level flow pattern over the CONUS will continue through this weekend and into the first part of next week. A prominent upper low will amplify over the East Coast as a strong surface cyclone develops offshore. Ridging over the western US will support strong high pressure and a cold/dry continental air mass over much of the US. This will largely suppress inland moisture transport, outside of far south FL, and subsequent thunderstorm potential for the next several days.
..Lyons.. 01/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, February 3
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, January 31 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, February 1 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, February 2 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, February 3 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, February 4 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280956 SPC AC 280956
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe weather is unlikely through the extended forecast period. A highly amplified mid-level flow pattern over the CONUS will continue through this weekend and into the first part of next week. A prominent upper low will amplify over the East Coast as a strong surface cyclone develops offshore. Ridging over the western US will support strong high pressure and a cold/dry continental air mass over much of the US. This will largely suppress inland moisture transport, outside of far south FL, and subsequent thunderstorm potential for the next several days.
..Lyons.. 01/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, February 4
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, January 31 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, February 1 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, February 2 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, February 3 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, February 4 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280956 SPC AC 280956
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe weather is unlikely through the extended forecast period. A highly amplified mid-level flow pattern over the CONUS will continue through this weekend and into the first part of next week. A prominent upper low will amplify over the East Coast as a strong surface cyclone develops offshore. Ridging over the western US will support strong high pressure and a cold/dry continental air mass over much of the US. This will largely suppress inland moisture transport, outside of far south FL, and subsequent thunderstorm potential for the next several days.
..Lyons.. 01/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, January 28
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Thursday, January 29
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Friday, January 30
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Saturday, January 31
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, February 1
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, February 2
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, February 3
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, February 4
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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