Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, May 8
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds are possible from southeast Kansas through much of central and eastern Oklahoma into north Texas Friday afternoon into Friday night. More sparse occurrences of large hail and damaging winds are possible across the Ozarks, central and south TX, and the Gulf Coast states.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 081228
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0728 AM CDT Fri May 08 2026
Valid 081300Z - 091200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds are possible from southeast Kansas through much of central and eastern Oklahoma into north Texas Friday afternoon into Friday night. More sparse occurrences of large hail and damaging winds are possible across the Ozarks, central and south TX, and the Gulf Coast states.
Central Plains
Morning water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over western KS tracking southeastward. Full sunshine will lead to strong heating/destabilization ahead of the associated cold front over eastern KS and much of OK. Dewpoints in the 50s, coupled with steep low/mid level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg and the development of scattered thunderstorms along the front. These storms will track southeastward through the evening across much of OK and into north TX. Forecast soundings indicate favorable vertical shear profiles for supercell structures capable of large hail.
Eventual upscale organization into linear/bowing structures will aid in a risk of damaging winds as storms persist into the overnight period across the ArkLaTex. While the overall severe threat should diminish by this time, storms may occasionally result in damaging wind gusts and hail.
Central Gulf Coast
Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning along/north of a surface boundary that extends from southeast TX along the Gulf Coast into north FL. Storms are expected to increase in coverage during the afternoon along the front, with a few strong to severe cells expected. Gusty winds are the primary concern.
..Hart/Wendt.. 05/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Saturday, May 9
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with large hail and a few damaging wind gusts are expected to develop across parts of the southern Plains Saturday afternoon and evening. A marginal severe threat is forecast along parts of the Gulf Coast.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 080601
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Fri May 08 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with large hail and a few damaging wind gusts are expected to develop across parts of the southern Plains Saturday afternoon and evening. A marginal severe threat is forecast along parts of the Gulf Coast.
Southern Plains
At mid-levels, cyclonically-oriented northwest flow will be in place over the central U.S. on Saturday. Within the flow, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move into the southern Plains by early Saturday evening. Ahead of the approaching trough, low-level moisture advection is forecast ahead of a cold front moving through the central Plains. A dryline should be located near a triple point and surface low extending southward into northwest Texas. By late afternoon, surface dewpoints should be in the 60s F across most of Oklahoma and north Texas with moderate instability in place. Low-level convergence will likely become maximized near the triple point in southwest Kansas and far northwestern Oklahoma, which should enable convective initiation. Multiple storms are expected to develop and move south-southeastward across western Oklahoma and northwest Texas.
The most favorable environment for severe storms is forecast over southwest Oklahoma during the late afternoon and early evening. RAP forecasts soundings at 00Z east of the dryline near Altus have 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 40 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7.5 C/km. This suggests that supercell development with large hail will be possible. At the surface, temperature-dewpoint spreads are forecast to be around 25 degrees F. This will result in high-based storms capable of isolated severe wind gusts. The severe threat could persist into the early to mid evening, as convection moves south-southeastward into northwest Texas. ### Gulf Coast Region
West-southwest flow at mid-levels is expected on Saturday along the Gulf Coast. A shortwave trough is forecast to move through south Texas Saturday afternoon and into the Gulf Saturday evening. Another shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Southeast. Warm-advection related storms are forecast to move southeastward from southern Mississippi and southern Georgia into northern Florida during the day. These storms could be associated with a marginal wind-damage threat. Further west across the central and western Gulf Coast, onshore flow should result in convection along coastal convergence boundaries during the afternoon. Moderate instability and sufficient deep-layer shear is forecast for isolated severe wind gusts and hail.
..Broyles.. 05/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Sunday, May 10
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening from parts of west Texas east-northeastward into the Ark-La-Tex. A marginal severe threat is expected to develop over parts of the eastern Gulf Coast.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 080728
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Fri May 08 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ARK-LA-TEX
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening from parts of west Texas east-northeastward into the Ark-La-Tex. A marginal severe threat is expected to develop over parts of the eastern Gulf Coast.
Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex
At mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward through the central U.S. on Sunday, as a cold front advances southward across the southern Plains. South of the front, surface dewpoints mostly in the 60s F will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon from a dryline in west Texas east-northeastward across much of north-central and northeast Texas. As surface temperatures warm and low-level convergence increases near the front, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the northern edge of the moist airmass during the afternoon and evening.
Forecast soundings across parts of west and north-central Texas late Sunday afternoon suggest that MLCAPE will peak in the 2000 to 3500 J/kg range with 0-6 shear around 35 knots. This, combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km, should be favorable for a large-hail threat. In addition, steep 0-3 km lapse rates should support an isolated wind-damage threat, especially if a cold pool can organize. The cold front position is expected to be a bit further south than is currently forecast. This projected position is in relatively good agreement with the most reliable guidance, which adds confidence in a potential severe threat area in west, north-central and northeast Texas Sunday afternoon and evening.
Central and Eastern Gulf Coast
Westerly mid-level flow is forecast on Sunday across the Gulf Coast region. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place from the central Gulf Coast eastward to Florida. Some solutions move a subtle shortwave trough eastward across the Southeast on Sunday. This would support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development in the afternoon near the coast from southeast Louisiana eastward to southern Georgia and northern Florida. Instability and deep-layer shear is expected to be strong enough for a marginal severe threat during the mid to late afternoon.
..Broyles.. 05/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Monday, May 11
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, May 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, May 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, May 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, May 15 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080831 SPC AC 080831
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CDT Fri May 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6
Mid-level northwesterly flow is forecast to persist across much of the central and eastern U.S. during the period from Monday to Wednesday. A cold front is forecast to move through the Southeast on Monday and into the Gulf and Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday. Isolated severe thunderstorm development will be possible near and ahead of the front each day, with the greatest potential for severe Monday afternoon and evening in parts of southern Alabama, southern Georgia, northern Florida and the coastal Carolinas. Isolated severe wind gusts is expected to be the primary threat.
Further to the north on Tuesday, another cold front is forecast to move southward through the central Plains and mid Mississippi Valley. Although low-level moisture is forecast to remain somewhat limited, enough instability could develop for an isolated severe threat. The greatest potential would be in eastern Missouri and southern Illinois in conjunction with a mid-level jet moving southeastward through the region. Hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible. A marginal severe threat could again develop near the associated trough over the central Appalachians Wednesday afternoon.
Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8
A shortwave ridge is forecast to move eastward toward the Mississippi Valley on Thursday, as another shortwave ridge moves into the High Plains on Friday. In the wake of each ridge, model forecasts develop a north-to-south axis of instability in the Great Plains. Isolated severe storms will be possible within this unstable airmass on both Thursday and Friday. At this time, uncertainty is substantial late in the day 4 to 8 period.
..Broyles.. 05/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, May 12
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, May 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, May 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, May 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, May 15 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080831 SPC AC 080831
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CDT Fri May 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6
Mid-level northwesterly flow is forecast to persist across much of the central and eastern U.S. during the period from Monday to Wednesday. A cold front is forecast to move through the Southeast on Monday and into the Gulf and Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday. Isolated severe thunderstorm development will be possible near and ahead of the front each day, with the greatest potential for severe Monday afternoon and evening in parts of southern Alabama, southern Georgia, northern Florida and the coastal Carolinas. Isolated severe wind gusts is expected to be the primary threat.
Further to the north on Tuesday, another cold front is forecast to move southward through the central Plains and mid Mississippi Valley. Although low-level moisture is forecast to remain somewhat limited, enough instability could develop for an isolated severe threat. The greatest potential would be in eastern Missouri and southern Illinois in conjunction with a mid-level jet moving southeastward through the region. Hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible. A marginal severe threat could again develop near the associated trough over the central Appalachians Wednesday afternoon.
Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8
A shortwave ridge is forecast to move eastward toward the Mississippi Valley on Thursday, as another shortwave ridge moves into the High Plains on Friday. In the wake of each ridge, model forecasts develop a north-to-south axis of instability in the Great Plains. Isolated severe storms will be possible within this unstable airmass on both Thursday and Friday. At this time, uncertainty is substantial late in the day 4 to 8 period.
..Broyles.. 05/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, May 13
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, May 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, May 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, May 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, May 15 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080831 SPC AC 080831
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CDT Fri May 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6
Mid-level northwesterly flow is forecast to persist across much of the central and eastern U.S. during the period from Monday to Wednesday. A cold front is forecast to move through the Southeast on Monday and into the Gulf and Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday. Isolated severe thunderstorm development will be possible near and ahead of the front each day, with the greatest potential for severe Monday afternoon and evening in parts of southern Alabama, southern Georgia, northern Florida and the coastal Carolinas. Isolated severe wind gusts is expected to be the primary threat.
Further to the north on Tuesday, another cold front is forecast to move southward through the central Plains and mid Mississippi Valley. Although low-level moisture is forecast to remain somewhat limited, enough instability could develop for an isolated severe threat. The greatest potential would be in eastern Missouri and southern Illinois in conjunction with a mid-level jet moving southeastward through the region. Hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible. A marginal severe threat could again develop near the associated trough over the central Appalachians Wednesday afternoon.
Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8
A shortwave ridge is forecast to move eastward toward the Mississippi Valley on Thursday, as another shortwave ridge moves into the High Plains on Friday. In the wake of each ridge, model forecasts develop a north-to-south axis of instability in the Great Plains. Isolated severe storms will be possible within this unstable airmass on both Thursday and Friday. At this time, uncertainty is substantial late in the day 4 to 8 period.
..Broyles.. 05/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, May 14
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, May 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, May 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, May 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, May 15 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080831 SPC AC 080831
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CDT Fri May 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6
Mid-level northwesterly flow is forecast to persist across much of the central and eastern U.S. during the period from Monday to Wednesday. A cold front is forecast to move through the Southeast on Monday and into the Gulf and Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday. Isolated severe thunderstorm development will be possible near and ahead of the front each day, with the greatest potential for severe Monday afternoon and evening in parts of southern Alabama, southern Georgia, northern Florida and the coastal Carolinas. Isolated severe wind gusts is expected to be the primary threat.
Further to the north on Tuesday, another cold front is forecast to move southward through the central Plains and mid Mississippi Valley. Although low-level moisture is forecast to remain somewhat limited, enough instability could develop for an isolated severe threat. The greatest potential would be in eastern Missouri and southern Illinois in conjunction with a mid-level jet moving southeastward through the region. Hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible. A marginal severe threat could again develop near the associated trough over the central Appalachians Wednesday afternoon.
Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8
A shortwave ridge is forecast to move eastward toward the Mississippi Valley on Thursday, as another shortwave ridge moves into the High Plains on Friday. In the wake of each ridge, model forecasts develop a north-to-south axis of instability in the Great Plains. Isolated severe storms will be possible within this unstable airmass on both Thursday and Friday. At this time, uncertainty is substantial late in the day 4 to 8 period.
..Broyles.. 05/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, May 15
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, May 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, May 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, May 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, May 15 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080831 SPC AC 080831
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CDT Fri May 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6
Mid-level northwesterly flow is forecast to persist across much of the central and eastern U.S. during the period from Monday to Wednesday. A cold front is forecast to move through the Southeast on Monday and into the Gulf and Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday. Isolated severe thunderstorm development will be possible near and ahead of the front each day, with the greatest potential for severe Monday afternoon and evening in parts of southern Alabama, southern Georgia, northern Florida and the coastal Carolinas. Isolated severe wind gusts is expected to be the primary threat.
Further to the north on Tuesday, another cold front is forecast to move southward through the central Plains and mid Mississippi Valley. Although low-level moisture is forecast to remain somewhat limited, enough instability could develop for an isolated severe threat. The greatest potential would be in eastern Missouri and southern Illinois in conjunction with a mid-level jet moving southeastward through the region. Hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible. A marginal severe threat could again develop near the associated trough over the central Appalachians Wednesday afternoon.
Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8
A shortwave ridge is forecast to move eastward toward the Mississippi Valley on Thursday, as another shortwave ridge moves into the High Plains on Friday. In the wake of each ridge, model forecasts develop a north-to-south axis of instability in the Great Plains. Isolated severe storms will be possible within this unstable airmass on both Thursday and Friday. At this time, uncertainty is substantial late in the day 4 to 8 period.
..Broyles.. 05/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, May 8
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Saturday, May 9
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 5%
- Sunday, May 10
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Monday, May 11
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, May 12
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, May 13
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, May 14
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, May 15
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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