Hayley here - Do you want to see severe weather in your calendar?
* it's like an add-on for your digital calendar NOT a paper calendar
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes region, including Iowa, northern Missouri, northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin to Lower Michigan and northern Indiana. This includes the potential for widespread/intense damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes, some of which may be strong.
← back to overviewSPC AC 111258
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026
Valid 111300Z - 121200Z
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS
### THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES
### SUMMARY
Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes region, including Iowa, northern Missouri, northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin to Lower Michigan and northern Indiana. This includes the potential for widespread/intense damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes, some of which may be strong.
Midwest/Great Lakes
Portions of the region have been upgraded to a Moderate Risk. Another very active day with widespread/intense severe storms is expected regionally. A consequential severe risk is already ongoing this morning across Iowa/far northern Missouri, and will continue east-northeastward and become more prominent regionally during the day. A well-organized/eastward-accelerating bowing cluster of storms, now supported by an apparent MCV, has had a history of measured severe-caliber wind gusts overnight and in the predawn hours from southeast Nebraska into southern Iowa. A similar severe risk should continue east-northeastward through midday across eastern Iowa/far northeast Missouri toward northern Illinois, with more of a surface-based/tornado risk potentially unfolding relatively early today aside from a continued prominent damaging wind threat.
Scenario is supported by a robust southwesterly low-level jet/moisture transport, even with some diurnal weakening of the low-level jet possible. Also influential is a prominent/increasingly neutral-tilt-shortwave trough and jet streak crossing the Corn Belt, notably strong features by mid-June standards.
Convective overturning/outflow from last evening's MCS are still residual factors evident this morning in observational data/supplemental 3D mesoanalysis across far eastern Iowa, far northeast Missouri into central Illinois. This is sampled by the 12z observed sounding from KILX/Lincoln, IL. These residual factors may somewhat southward-focus the peak/most-intense severe weather later today, with more uncertainty progressively northward in general proximity to Lake Michigan latitudinally, including parts of Wisconsin/Michigan. The timing/residual impacts of this morning's MCS across Iowa/northern Missouri into northern Illinois and severe potential in its wake near the surface low and front, and/or to its (MCS) north-northeast are a bit less uncertain. That said, mass response/fluxes related to the dynamic shortwave trough/speed max will be notable and consistent with heightened severe-potential even if outflow/cloud debris exists and sub-regional areas of destabilization are sub-optimal.
Details of later-afternoon severe potential is somewhat contingent on how the morning MCS further evolves, but a window for redevelopment in its immediate wake will probably exist. This will lead to a renewed round of severe storms as development occurs near the cold front, and perhaps preferentially favors prior outflow, with a damaging wind and tornado risk continuing eastward this evening as the low-level jet re=intensifies and as storms gradually grow upscale toward Lake Michigan and across Illinois/Indiana/Lower Michigan.
Eastern Kansas and Southern Plains
Additional thunderstorm development is expected along the trailing cold front into portions of the central/southern Plains. Deep layer shear will be maximized in the post-frontal environment; however, around 20-30 kt of effective bulk shear and moderate to strong instability will support some supercell structures capable of large hail and damaging winds. Storm motions and boundary parallel shear will likely lead to clustering and messy modes over time.
Mid-Atlantic ad central Appalachians
Forcing for ascent from multiple shortwave disturbances across the northeast and dewpoints in the 60s to 70s F will support development of widely scattered thunderstorms by afternoon across the Mid-Atlantic into the central Appalachians. Though vertical shear will be generally weak, moderate to strong instability will be in place will support stronger updrafts capable of damaging winds. It is likely that several clusters will emerge with potential for organizing along cold pools and more focused corridors of damaging wind potential.
..Guyer/Wendt.. 06/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Widely scattered to scattered severe storms capable of mainly damaging wind gusts are expected from western New England and the Mid-Atlantic to eastern Tennessee and western North Carolina Friday afternoon and evening. Isolated occurrences of large hail appear possible from central New Mexico into far west Texas.
← back to overviewSPC AC 110534
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
### SUMMARY
Widely scattered to scattered severe storms capable of mainly damaging wind gusts are expected from western New England and the Mid-Atlantic to eastern Tennessee and western North Carolina Friday afternoon and evening. Isolated occurrences of large hail appear possible from central New Mexico into far west Texas.
Synopsis
A short-wave trough and attending 50 kt mid-level jet streak initially from the Upper Great Lakes into mid MS Valley are forecast to weaken while progressing through the OH Valley to along the St. Lawrence Valley. At the surface, a cold front initially from southwest Ontario to near the confluence of the OH and MS Rivers at 12z Friday will advance east/southeast into New England and Mid-Atlantic, where it will merge with a lee trough closer to the coast.
### Western New England and the Mid-Atlantic into the Central Appalachians
While mid-level lapse rates are not expected to be overly steep, the presence of a hot, moist boundary layer will largely contribute to moderate to strong instability Friday afternoon ahead of the cold front and in the vicinity of the lee trough. Thunderstorm development is expected by early to mid afternoon across portions of NY and PA within a zone of forcing for ascent preceding the mid-level wave. Additional storm development is likely through the afternoon along the front and/or favored terrain in the central and southern Appalachians. The strongest vertical shear is expected to lag the surface warm sector to the west, leading to a mix of multicells and line segments with the primary hazard being damaging wind gusts. Isolated occurrences of marginally severe hail may also accompany the strongest storms.
Individual thunderstorms are expected to gradually congeal into outflow-driven clusters by late afternoon into early evening, leading to a potentially more concentrated damaging-wind threat across the Mid-Atlantic.
### Central New Mexico into Far West Texas
Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop within a moist and moderately unstable upslope regime Friday afternoon. Vertical shear is forecast to be somewhat marginal for storm organization; however, the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates will be supportive of some large-hail potential with the strongest updrafts.
### Northern High Plains into Minnesota and Wisconsin
Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon within a marginally unstable environment, with some potential for gusty winds and/or small hail. Vertical shear is expected to be relatively strong, and if subsequent model runs indicate greater instability, severe-weather probabilities may need to be added.
..Mead.. 06/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Widely scattered to scattered severe storms capable of all hazards appear possible Saturday afternoon and evening across portions of the central Plains into the lower Missouri Valley. More isolated severe weather appears possible across the upper Great Lakes, Ozark Plateau, and southern Plains.
← back to overviewSPC AC 110724
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Widely scattered to scattered severe storms capable of all hazards appear possible Saturday afternoon and evening across portions of the central Plains into the lower Missouri Valley. More isolated severe weather appears possible across the upper Great Lakes, Ozark Plateau, and southern Plains.
Synopsis
A short-wave trough initially from the upper MS Valley into northern Rockies is forecast to amplify while pivoting east/southeast through the upper Midwest and mid/lower MO Valleys. That system will be attended by a belt of 50-60+ kt winds in the mid-levels, which are expected to extend from the mid MO Valley into the Great Lakes Saturday afternoon into night. At the surface, a cold front initially from the upper Midwest to low pressure over KS Saturday morning, will progress through the upper Great Lakes, mid/lower MO Valleys, and central Plains during the forecast period.
### Upper Great Lakes into Central and Southern Plains
The potential for early-day storms across portions of the mid MO Valley into the Ozark Plateau increases uncertainty in the location of afternoon/evening storms, as well as the distribution of instability across the region. Latest ensemble guidance indicates the highest likelihood for moderate to strong instability across portions of the central and southern Plains with greater spread in instability farther north across the upper Midwest into upper Great Lakes.
Current thinking is that diurnally enhanced thunderstorms appear most likely to the northeast of the KS surface low northeast along the adjacent segment of the front with lesser confidence in storm coverage with northeastward extent into the upper Great Lakes. Deep-layer shear is expected to be sufficiently strong for organized storm modes, including supercells from the central Plains into the upper Great Lakes with decreasing amounts of vertical shear into the southern Plains. Highest confidence in a more concentrated severe-weather episode remains centered across the central Plains into the lower MO Valley, where all hazards appear possible. Storms may eventually grow upscale into one or multiple complexes Saturday evening into night from the mid MS Valley through Ozark Plateau into the southern Plains.
..Mead.. 06/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
| Day 4 | Sunday, June 14 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Monday, June 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, June 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, June 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, June 18 | predictability too low |
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110852 SPC AC 110852
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Sunday
The 00z models have trended toward a much stronger short-wave trough and associated mid-level jet, which will progress from the Great Lakes and OH Valley into the Northeast. Elsewhere, a short-wave trough is forecast to move from the northern Rockies into the central Plains. At the surface, a cold front attendant to the Northeast short-wave trough will move through that region with the trailing extension of the boundary pushing south through the OH and TN Valleys into the Gulf Coast states.
A much stronger low-level jet is now forecast ahead of the cold front across the Northeast, which will aid in greater air mass destabilization than indicated in previous model runs. When coupled with notably stronger vertical shear, the setup appears favorable for organized severe storms across the Mid-Atlantic, potentially into southern New England Sunday afternoon and evening.
### Day 5/Monday
The models suggest the Sunday/central Plains short-wave trough will progress through the mid MS into OH Valleys with an associated belt of enhanced mid-level flow stretching from the central Plains into Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, there is good model agreement that the primary synoptic front and associated warm sector will lie across TX and the Gulf Coast states, to the south of the stronger mid-level winds and forcing for ascent. Some severe-weather threat may develop along and south of the front; however, the marginal vertical shear is expected to limit the overall severe-weather threat.
Slightly stronger vertical shear is forecast across the central and southern High Plains, due to an easterly upslope regime in the low-levels. While the potential for more organized storms will exist in that region, severe-weather coverage may only be isolated.
### Day 6/Tuesday
The ensemble mean and deterministic models are suggestive that a mid-level disturbance will track from the central Plains into the lower OH and TN Valleys, contributing to overall amplification of the long-wave trough in place east of the Rockies. The primary surface front is expected to remain in place across the Gulf Coast states, to the immediate south of the stronger forcing for ascent and mid-level flow. While isolated occurrences of severe weather appear possible from the southern High Plains into Southeast, the potential for an organized severe-weather event remains in question.
Days 7-8/Wednesday and Thursday
The ensemble means indicate the progression of a strong mid-level jet streak into the northern and central Plains Wednesday with that feature moving through the OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic Thursday. At the surface, the ensemble member low positions indicate clustering across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley Wednesday, and across the Great Lakes into Ontario on Thursday. The rapid poleward return of a moist and unstable air mass is expected to occur ahead of the surface low and associated frontal system. As such, some severe weather appears possible across parts of the Midwest Wednesday, and perhaps OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic Thursday.
..Mead.. 06/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
| Day 4 | Sunday, June 14 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Monday, June 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, June 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, June 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, June 18 | predictability too low |
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110852 SPC AC 110852
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Sunday
The 00z models have trended toward a much stronger short-wave trough and associated mid-level jet, which will progress from the Great Lakes and OH Valley into the Northeast. Elsewhere, a short-wave trough is forecast to move from the northern Rockies into the central Plains. At the surface, a cold front attendant to the Northeast short-wave trough will move through that region with the trailing extension of the boundary pushing south through the OH and TN Valleys into the Gulf Coast states.
A much stronger low-level jet is now forecast ahead of the cold front across the Northeast, which will aid in greater air mass destabilization than indicated in previous model runs. When coupled with notably stronger vertical shear, the setup appears favorable for organized severe storms across the Mid-Atlantic, potentially into southern New England Sunday afternoon and evening.
### Day 5/Monday
The models suggest the Sunday/central Plains short-wave trough will progress through the mid MS into OH Valleys with an associated belt of enhanced mid-level flow stretching from the central Plains into Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, there is good model agreement that the primary synoptic front and associated warm sector will lie across TX and the Gulf Coast states, to the south of the stronger mid-level winds and forcing for ascent. Some severe-weather threat may develop along and south of the front; however, the marginal vertical shear is expected to limit the overall severe-weather threat.
Slightly stronger vertical shear is forecast across the central and southern High Plains, due to an easterly upslope regime in the low-levels. While the potential for more organized storms will exist in that region, severe-weather coverage may only be isolated.
### Day 6/Tuesday
The ensemble mean and deterministic models are suggestive that a mid-level disturbance will track from the central Plains into the lower OH and TN Valleys, contributing to overall amplification of the long-wave trough in place east of the Rockies. The primary surface front is expected to remain in place across the Gulf Coast states, to the immediate south of the stronger forcing for ascent and mid-level flow. While isolated occurrences of severe weather appear possible from the southern High Plains into Southeast, the potential for an organized severe-weather event remains in question.
Days 7-8/Wednesday and Thursday
The ensemble means indicate the progression of a strong mid-level jet streak into the northern and central Plains Wednesday with that feature moving through the OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic Thursday. At the surface, the ensemble member low positions indicate clustering across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley Wednesday, and across the Great Lakes into Ontario on Thursday. The rapid poleward return of a moist and unstable air mass is expected to occur ahead of the surface low and associated frontal system. As such, some severe weather appears possible across parts of the Midwest Wednesday, and perhaps OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic Thursday.
..Mead.. 06/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
| Day 4 | Sunday, June 14 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Monday, June 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, June 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, June 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, June 18 | predictability too low |
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110852 SPC AC 110852
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Sunday
The 00z models have trended toward a much stronger short-wave trough and associated mid-level jet, which will progress from the Great Lakes and OH Valley into the Northeast. Elsewhere, a short-wave trough is forecast to move from the northern Rockies into the central Plains. At the surface, a cold front attendant to the Northeast short-wave trough will move through that region with the trailing extension of the boundary pushing south through the OH and TN Valleys into the Gulf Coast states.
A much stronger low-level jet is now forecast ahead of the cold front across the Northeast, which will aid in greater air mass destabilization than indicated in previous model runs. When coupled with notably stronger vertical shear, the setup appears favorable for organized severe storms across the Mid-Atlantic, potentially into southern New England Sunday afternoon and evening.
### Day 5/Monday
The models suggest the Sunday/central Plains short-wave trough will progress through the mid MS into OH Valleys with an associated belt of enhanced mid-level flow stretching from the central Plains into Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, there is good model agreement that the primary synoptic front and associated warm sector will lie across TX and the Gulf Coast states, to the south of the stronger mid-level winds and forcing for ascent. Some severe-weather threat may develop along and south of the front; however, the marginal vertical shear is expected to limit the overall severe-weather threat.
Slightly stronger vertical shear is forecast across the central and southern High Plains, due to an easterly upslope regime in the low-levels. While the potential for more organized storms will exist in that region, severe-weather coverage may only be isolated.
### Day 6/Tuesday
The ensemble mean and deterministic models are suggestive that a mid-level disturbance will track from the central Plains into the lower OH and TN Valleys, contributing to overall amplification of the long-wave trough in place east of the Rockies. The primary surface front is expected to remain in place across the Gulf Coast states, to the immediate south of the stronger forcing for ascent and mid-level flow. While isolated occurrences of severe weather appear possible from the southern High Plains into Southeast, the potential for an organized severe-weather event remains in question.
Days 7-8/Wednesday and Thursday
The ensemble means indicate the progression of a strong mid-level jet streak into the northern and central Plains Wednesday with that feature moving through the OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic Thursday. At the surface, the ensemble member low positions indicate clustering across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley Wednesday, and across the Great Lakes into Ontario on Thursday. The rapid poleward return of a moist and unstable air mass is expected to occur ahead of the surface low and associated frontal system. As such, some severe weather appears possible across parts of the Midwest Wednesday, and perhaps OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic Thursday.
..Mead.. 06/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
| Day 4 | Sunday, June 14 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Monday, June 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, June 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, June 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, June 18 | predictability too low |
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110852 SPC AC 110852
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Sunday
The 00z models have trended toward a much stronger short-wave trough and associated mid-level jet, which will progress from the Great Lakes and OH Valley into the Northeast. Elsewhere, a short-wave trough is forecast to move from the northern Rockies into the central Plains. At the surface, a cold front attendant to the Northeast short-wave trough will move through that region with the trailing extension of the boundary pushing south through the OH and TN Valleys into the Gulf Coast states.
A much stronger low-level jet is now forecast ahead of the cold front across the Northeast, which will aid in greater air mass destabilization than indicated in previous model runs. When coupled with notably stronger vertical shear, the setup appears favorable for organized severe storms across the Mid-Atlantic, potentially into southern New England Sunday afternoon and evening.
### Day 5/Monday
The models suggest the Sunday/central Plains short-wave trough will progress through the mid MS into OH Valleys with an associated belt of enhanced mid-level flow stretching from the central Plains into Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, there is good model agreement that the primary synoptic front and associated warm sector will lie across TX and the Gulf Coast states, to the south of the stronger mid-level winds and forcing for ascent. Some severe-weather threat may develop along and south of the front; however, the marginal vertical shear is expected to limit the overall severe-weather threat.
Slightly stronger vertical shear is forecast across the central and southern High Plains, due to an easterly upslope regime in the low-levels. While the potential for more organized storms will exist in that region, severe-weather coverage may only be isolated.
### Day 6/Tuesday
The ensemble mean and deterministic models are suggestive that a mid-level disturbance will track from the central Plains into the lower OH and TN Valleys, contributing to overall amplification of the long-wave trough in place east of the Rockies. The primary surface front is expected to remain in place across the Gulf Coast states, to the immediate south of the stronger forcing for ascent and mid-level flow. While isolated occurrences of severe weather appear possible from the southern High Plains into Southeast, the potential for an organized severe-weather event remains in question.
Days 7-8/Wednesday and Thursday
The ensemble means indicate the progression of a strong mid-level jet streak into the northern and central Plains Wednesday with that feature moving through the OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic Thursday. At the surface, the ensemble member low positions indicate clustering across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley Wednesday, and across the Great Lakes into Ontario on Thursday. The rapid poleward return of a moist and unstable air mass is expected to occur ahead of the surface low and associated frontal system. As such, some severe weather appears possible across parts of the Midwest Wednesday, and perhaps OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic Thursday.
..Mead.. 06/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
| Day 4 | Sunday, June 14 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Monday, June 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, June 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, June 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, June 18 | predictability too low |
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110852 SPC AC 110852
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Sunday
The 00z models have trended toward a much stronger short-wave trough and associated mid-level jet, which will progress from the Great Lakes and OH Valley into the Northeast. Elsewhere, a short-wave trough is forecast to move from the northern Rockies into the central Plains. At the surface, a cold front attendant to the Northeast short-wave trough will move through that region with the trailing extension of the boundary pushing south through the OH and TN Valleys into the Gulf Coast states.
A much stronger low-level jet is now forecast ahead of the cold front across the Northeast, which will aid in greater air mass destabilization than indicated in previous model runs. When coupled with notably stronger vertical shear, the setup appears favorable for organized severe storms across the Mid-Atlantic, potentially into southern New England Sunday afternoon and evening.
### Day 5/Monday
The models suggest the Sunday/central Plains short-wave trough will progress through the mid MS into OH Valleys with an associated belt of enhanced mid-level flow stretching from the central Plains into Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, there is good model agreement that the primary synoptic front and associated warm sector will lie across TX and the Gulf Coast states, to the south of the stronger mid-level winds and forcing for ascent. Some severe-weather threat may develop along and south of the front; however, the marginal vertical shear is expected to limit the overall severe-weather threat.
Slightly stronger vertical shear is forecast across the central and southern High Plains, due to an easterly upslope regime in the low-levels. While the potential for more organized storms will exist in that region, severe-weather coverage may only be isolated.
### Day 6/Tuesday
The ensemble mean and deterministic models are suggestive that a mid-level disturbance will track from the central Plains into the lower OH and TN Valleys, contributing to overall amplification of the long-wave trough in place east of the Rockies. The primary surface front is expected to remain in place across the Gulf Coast states, to the immediate south of the stronger forcing for ascent and mid-level flow. While isolated occurrences of severe weather appear possible from the southern High Plains into Southeast, the potential for an organized severe-weather event remains in question.
Days 7-8/Wednesday and Thursday
The ensemble means indicate the progression of a strong mid-level jet streak into the northern and central Plains Wednesday with that feature moving through the OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic Thursday. At the surface, the ensemble member low positions indicate clustering across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley Wednesday, and across the Great Lakes into Ontario on Thursday. The rapid poleward return of a moist and unstable air mass is expected to occur ahead of the surface low and associated frontal system. As such, some severe weather appears possible across parts of the Midwest Wednesday, and perhaps OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic Thursday.
..Mead.. 06/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.
Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.
SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.