Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, February 21
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the Southeast this afternoon and evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 212021
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
Valid 212000Z - 221200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES
CORRECTED FOR GENERAL THUNDERSTORM LINE ERROR
SUMMARY
Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the Southeast this afternoon and evening.
Southeast States
Other than trimming risk areas behind the sagging cold front, no important changes have been made to the ongoing forecast.
..Hart.. 02/21/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1011 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026/
Southeast States
A well-defined surface baroclinic zone extends from southern LA/MS east-northeastward into parts of AL/GA/SC today. To the south of the boundary, a rather warm/moist and unstable air mass is present with dewpoints in the upper 60s and afternoon MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg. This will lead to occasional thunderstorms along the boundary through the day and into the evening. Low-level winds are veered, limiting convergence and vertical shear. However, occasional small bowing structures will be possible today capable of gusty or locally damaging wind gusts. Also, modest mid-level lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft might result in a report or two of hail. Refer to MCD #110 for further short-term details.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Sunday, February 22
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula during the day on Sunday. Lightning may also occur across coastal areas from North Carolina north toward Massachusetts and over western Washington State. Severe weather potential is low.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 211725
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula during the day on Sunday. Lightning may also occur across coastal areas from North Carolina north toward Massachusetts and over western Washington State. Severe weather potential is low.
Discussion
A mid-level trough over the lower Great Lakes is expected to rapidly intensify as several smaller perturbations merge with the main trough and western US ridging develops Sunday. A 100+ kt jet streak will round the base of the trough and move over the Atlantic coast through midday Sunday. Increasing large-scale ascent will aid in rapid cyclogenesis off the NC Coast. The resulting mass response will surge a cold front southward over portions of the FL Peninsula.
Ahead of the front, a narrow ribbon of most-unstable CAPE between 500 and 1000 J/kg should develop with daytime heating ahead of the southward advancing front. This may support convective showers and a few thunderstorms Sunday afternoon across portions of central and southern FL. However, warming/drying mid-levels and the departure of stronger mid-level forcing for ascent should tend to limit lightning coverage with southward extent into later Sunday
Across the Carolinas, mid Atlantic and southern New England coasts, intense surface cyclogenesis will support very strong low-level warm advection. The strong ascent may result in enough elevated instability (100-200 J/kg) and intense precipitation rates to support a few lightning strikes within the warm conveyor belt of the Nor'easter as the low lifts northward along the coast Sunday night into early Monday.
Across the West, strong ascent and some moisture advection associated with another upper-trough may support shallow convection along and off the coast of the Olympic Peninsula. While coverage should remain relatively low, cold mid-level temperatures and the strong ascent could support a few lightning flashes through Sunday evening.
..Lyons.. 02/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Monday, February 23
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are not expected across the United States on Monday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 211918
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not expected across the United States on Monday.
Synopsis
Mid-level troughing will intensify rapidly over the Eastern US, helping deepen a significant surface cyclone off the New England Coast. At the same time, ridging will build over the western and central US. As the mid-level pattern amplifies, a strong cold front associated with the East Coast low will sweep offshore scouring low-level moisture from much of the continent. In its wake, a cool and dry air mass will settle over much of the country, suppressing thunderstorm activity.
..Lyons.. 02/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Tuesday, February 24
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, February 24 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, February 25 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, February 26 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, February 27 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, February 28 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210931 SPC AC 210931
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
At the start of the forecast period, a dry airmass will remain across much of the United States. The culprit being a large surface anticyclone located across the northern Gulf Coast states suppressing moisture return. By late Tuesday (Day 4), the anticyclone will have moved into the eastern Gulf, with southerly winds advecting moisture northward into the Southern Plains.
Thunderstorm chances may return to portions of the Southern Plains into the Southeast overnight Wednesday into Thursday as a surface cold front pushes south into the area. At this time, the quality of the moisture return and poor lapse rates suggests limited, if any, severe potential as the front moves through.
The aforementioned front will stall/wash out across the northern Gulf states late on Thursday into Friday (Days 6 and 7) with modest moisture return developing across the Southern Plains Friday into Saturday (Days 7 and 8). This will be short lived as ensemble guidance suggests a seasonably strong cold front moving into/through the Southern Plains next weekend or early the following week. Once again, current guidance indicates the quality of moisture return and poor lapse rates should limit any severe potential.
..Marsh.. 02/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, February 25
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, February 24 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, February 25 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, February 26 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, February 27 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, February 28 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210931 SPC AC 210931
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
At the start of the forecast period, a dry airmass will remain across much of the United States. The culprit being a large surface anticyclone located across the northern Gulf Coast states suppressing moisture return. By late Tuesday (Day 4), the anticyclone will have moved into the eastern Gulf, with southerly winds advecting moisture northward into the Southern Plains.
Thunderstorm chances may return to portions of the Southern Plains into the Southeast overnight Wednesday into Thursday as a surface cold front pushes south into the area. At this time, the quality of the moisture return and poor lapse rates suggests limited, if any, severe potential as the front moves through.
The aforementioned front will stall/wash out across the northern Gulf states late on Thursday into Friday (Days 6 and 7) with modest moisture return developing across the Southern Plains Friday into Saturday (Days 7 and 8). This will be short lived as ensemble guidance suggests a seasonably strong cold front moving into/through the Southern Plains next weekend or early the following week. Once again, current guidance indicates the quality of moisture return and poor lapse rates should limit any severe potential.
..Marsh.. 02/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, February 26
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, February 24 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, February 25 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, February 26 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, February 27 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, February 28 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210931 SPC AC 210931
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
At the start of the forecast period, a dry airmass will remain across much of the United States. The culprit being a large surface anticyclone located across the northern Gulf Coast states suppressing moisture return. By late Tuesday (Day 4), the anticyclone will have moved into the eastern Gulf, with southerly winds advecting moisture northward into the Southern Plains.
Thunderstorm chances may return to portions of the Southern Plains into the Southeast overnight Wednesday into Thursday as a surface cold front pushes south into the area. At this time, the quality of the moisture return and poor lapse rates suggests limited, if any, severe potential as the front moves through.
The aforementioned front will stall/wash out across the northern Gulf states late on Thursday into Friday (Days 6 and 7) with modest moisture return developing across the Southern Plains Friday into Saturday (Days 7 and 8). This will be short lived as ensemble guidance suggests a seasonably strong cold front moving into/through the Southern Plains next weekend or early the following week. Once again, current guidance indicates the quality of moisture return and poor lapse rates should limit any severe potential.
..Marsh.. 02/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, February 27
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, February 24 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, February 25 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, February 26 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, February 27 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, February 28 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210931 SPC AC 210931
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
At the start of the forecast period, a dry airmass will remain across much of the United States. The culprit being a large surface anticyclone located across the northern Gulf Coast states suppressing moisture return. By late Tuesday (Day 4), the anticyclone will have moved into the eastern Gulf, with southerly winds advecting moisture northward into the Southern Plains.
Thunderstorm chances may return to portions of the Southern Plains into the Southeast overnight Wednesday into Thursday as a surface cold front pushes south into the area. At this time, the quality of the moisture return and poor lapse rates suggests limited, if any, severe potential as the front moves through.
The aforementioned front will stall/wash out across the northern Gulf states late on Thursday into Friday (Days 6 and 7) with modest moisture return developing across the Southern Plains Friday into Saturday (Days 7 and 8). This will be short lived as ensemble guidance suggests a seasonably strong cold front moving into/through the Southern Plains next weekend or early the following week. Once again, current guidance indicates the quality of moisture return and poor lapse rates should limit any severe potential.
..Marsh.. 02/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, February 28
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, February 24 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, February 25 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, February 26 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, February 27 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, February 28 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210931 SPC AC 210931
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
At the start of the forecast period, a dry airmass will remain across much of the United States. The culprit being a large surface anticyclone located across the northern Gulf Coast states suppressing moisture return. By late Tuesday (Day 4), the anticyclone will have moved into the eastern Gulf, with southerly winds advecting moisture northward into the Southern Plains.
Thunderstorm chances may return to portions of the Southern Plains into the Southeast overnight Wednesday into Thursday as a surface cold front pushes south into the area. At this time, the quality of the moisture return and poor lapse rates suggests limited, if any, severe potential as the front moves through.
The aforementioned front will stall/wash out across the northern Gulf states late on Thursday into Friday (Days 6 and 7) with modest moisture return developing across the Southern Plains Friday into Saturday (Days 7 and 8). This will be short lived as ensemble guidance suggests a seasonably strong cold front moving into/through the Southern Plains next weekend or early the following week. Once again, current guidance indicates the quality of moisture return and poor lapse rates should limit any severe potential.
..Marsh.. 02/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, February 21
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Sunday, February 22
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Monday, February 23
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Tuesday, February 24
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, February 25
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, February 26
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, February 27
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, February 28
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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