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Thunderstorms with hail and severe wind gusts are possible from Kansas/Missouri southwest into west Texas, mainly late this afternoon and evening.
← back to overviewSPC AC 141955
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026
Valid 142000Z - 151200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with hail and severe wind gusts are possible from Kansas/Missouri southwest into west Texas, mainly late this afternoon and evening.
20z Update central Plains and mid MS Valley
Isolated convection may develop across portions of central KS late this afternoon/evening northeast of the effective triple point. Low-level moisture continues to rapidly advect northward across central KS but deep mixing will likely limit the extent of the more robust 60s F dewpoints. With moderate forecast MLCAPE (1500-2000 J/kg) amid veering wind profiles, isolated, high-based supercells remain possible, mainly with a large hail and damaging wind risk. Additional storms are also possible later tonight at the terminus of a forecast 40-50 kt low-level jet across far eastern KS into MO. It remains unclear if these storms will be robustly organized, but some risk for hail and damaging winds may exist. Wind and hail probabilities were expanded slightly eastward to capture this threat.
Southern and central High Plains
High-based showers and a few thunderstorms have begun developing and should gradually increase in coverage this afternoon. Weak buoyancy (500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE) atop a very deep mixed layer is evident on 12 and 18z area RAOBs supporting the risk for damaging/severe gusts. A few stronger high-based storms could also produce marginally severe hail across parts of western KS where buoyancy is somewhat better. See MCD#718 for additional short term information.
..Lyons.. 05/14/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026/
Central Plains including Kansas
An upper trough over the Canadian Prairies and northern Plains will glancingly influence the region later today, along with an embedded disturbance or two emerging from the central Rockies early today. Surface cyclogenesis will occur across Kansas, while a front spreads east-southeastward across the central High Plains, and low-level moisture steadily increases ahead of a dryline.
Initiation/sustenance of deep convection is mostly likely to initially occur late this afternoon through around sunset across west-central into southwest Kansas in vicinity of the surface triple point, and to a lesser extent, along the southwestward-extending dryline. Beneath a stout elevated mixed layer, moderate buoyancy with 2000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected across central Kansas, which will be coincident with a belt of 35-40 kt mid-level winds/effective shear. Where storms do develop, forecast parameters will be quite favorable for supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds across much of central toward eastern Kansas. Other higher-based severe storms are possible south-southwestward along the dryline.
Southern High Plains including OK/TX Panhandles and West TX
Widely scattered high-based storms should develop in vicinity of the dryline late this afternoon/early evening. Somewhat higher probabilities/storm coverage should exist across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles and Texas South Plains. Various forecast soundings regionally near the dryline reflect a hot and very deeply mixed peak-heating boundary layer, to upwards of 4-4.5km AGL/500mb, with residual CAPE and moderately strong westerlies atop the boundary layer. Strong to potentially severe wind gusts will be possible where storms develop in this hot/steep lapse rate environment, with a diminishing storm intensity through the post-sunset evening hours as the boundary layer cools.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Severe storms with large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible Friday afternoon and evening in parts of the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley.
← back to overviewSPC AC 141720
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Severe storms with large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible Friday afternoon and evening in parts of the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley.
Synopsis
A predominantly zonal flow regime aloft will persist over the central U.S. through Friday. An embedded weak upper-level disturbance (currently over the Southwest) will migrate eastward across the central Plains through tomorrow, reaching the mid-MS River Valley by late evening. This flow regime will promote modest deepening of a surface low over western OK/KS through the day with continued northward advection of a seasonally moist air mass to the east of a dryline and ahead of an inverted surface trough across the Plains/upper Midwest. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along these boundaries by late afternoon, likely lasting into the overnight hours for portions of the Lower Missouri River Valley/Midwest.
Lower Missouri River Valley
Thunderstorm initiation is anticipated by late afternoon across central NE along the inverted surface trough where warm conditions on the fringe of returning moisture should yield weakly capped thermodynamic profiles. Stronger mid-level flow across the central Plains will favor higher probabilities for organized convection, including the potential for supercells. However, weak low-level storm-relative winds within a deeply mixed air mass may promote outflow-dominant convection and the potential for relatively quick upscale growth. While discrete modes can be maintained, steep mid-level lapse rates and strong zonal speed shear will promote the potential for large/very large hail.
Regardless, over the past 12-24 hours both deterministic and ensemble guidance have trended towards a more north/northwesterly placement of the inverted trough as well as the zone of convective initiation and downstream storm propagation. Based on these trends, 15% hail and wind probabilities have been shifted northward. Additionally, 5% hail/wind probabilities were expanded eastward into portions of the Midwest where strong deep-layer wind shear and elevated buoyancy may maintain convective intensity through the overnight hours.
Southern Plains
Persistent west/southwesterly mid-level flow will favor steep (8-9 C/km) lapse rate advection eastward over the southern Plains through the next 48 hours. Despite dry conditions to the west of the dryline, strong diurnal heating coupled with steep lapse rates should yield deeply-mixed, and nearly uninhibited, profiles by late afternoon. Although buoyancy values will be modest, high-based convection over a very deeply mixed boundary layer may support strong to severe downburst winds. Recent HREF/REFS solutions hint that severe winds associated with high-based convection may develop as far west as west as the OK/TX Panhandles, though considerable spread is noted among deterministic solutions. However, a westward expansion of the 5% wind/Marginal contour was made to account for this potential.
To the east of the dryline, strong capping at the base of the EML will likely limit storm coverage. However, a few recent CAM solutions hint that ascent along the dryline may be sufficient for isolated convection by late afternoon/early evening. 30 knot mid-level flow over the warm sector will support organization of any deep convection that can become sustained, including the potential for a supercell or two capable of large hail.
..Moore.. 05/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Severe storms capable of large to very large hail, wind damage and tornadoes will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley. Hailstones up to 3 inches in diameter and a strong tornado will be possible.
← back to overviewSPC AC 141928
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Severe storms capable of large to very large hail, wind damage and tornadoes will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley. Hailstones up to 3 inches in diameter and a strong tornado will be possible.
Synopsis
Upper-level troughing will gradually become established over the western CONUS over the next 72 hours. As this occurs, southwesterly mid-level flow will become more prominent across the central Rockies/Plains, resulting in steady deepening of a lee trough through Saturday. Persistent southerly flow through the southern and central Plains should establish a broad warm sector across the Plains, bounded to the west by a dryline and to the north by a diffuse warm frontal zone. Medium and long-range guidance depicts an embedded low-amplitude upper disturbance propagating into the Plains late Saturday afternoon, which will augment ascent and promote thunderstorm development in proximity to a deepening lee cyclone across parts of eastern CO, northwest KS, and western NE. Additional strong to severe thunderstorm chances are expected along the dryline across southwest KS into western OK and northwest TX, as well as along a warm frontal zone across portions of the Midwest/OH Valley regions.
Central Plains
A deepening surface low will likely become apparent across the central High Plains ahead of the upper-level disturbance. Convective initiation is anticipated by late afternoon in proximity to the surface low and along the warm front where MLCAPE values will likely exceed 2000 J/kg. Elongated hodographs depicted by most forecast guidance suggests organized supercells will be possible, and could pose a threat for very large hail and tornadoes. With time, upscale growth and an increasing severe wind threat is anticipated as storms propagate along the frontal zone. Recent guidance has shown fairly good agreement in a northward shift of the most volatile convective environment from central KS northwestward into northwest KS/central NE. Similarly, long-range CAM guidance also depicts the best convective signal across this region. Severe probabilities were adjusted northward to reflect this trend.
Western Oklahoma/northwest Texas
Capping at the base of an EML will likely suppress convective development along most the dryline across western OK and northwest TX. However, strong diurnal heating coupled with southerly flow through the lowest 2-3 km should promote eroding inhibition and considerable parcel residence time within the dryline circulation. While medium-range ensemble QPF signal is very limited, long-range CAM guidance depicts at least some signal for deep convection. Thunderstorms that can become sustained along the dryline will likely pose a threat for large hail and severe winds given around 30 knots of effective bulk shear.
Midwest/OH Valleys
A plume of steep mid-level lapse rates is expected to spread east towards the Midwest through the day. The inhibiting influence of low-level warming near the base of the EML will be offset to some degree by persistent low-level theta-e advection. Consequently, isolated to widely scattered convection appears probable across central IL into portions of the OH Valley. MUCAPE values on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg should support deep convection, and effective bulk shear values near 30 knots within the warm frontal zone may allow for organized convection with an attendant threat for severe hail and wind.
..Moore.. 05/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
| Day 4 | Sunday, May 17 | 30% |
| Day 5 | Monday, May 18 | 30% |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, May 19 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, May 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, May 21 | predictability too low |
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140901 SPC AC 140901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/SUN…D5/MON
### DISCUSSION
Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5
An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the Intermountain West on Sunday, as a subtle shortwave trough moves northeastward across the Great Plains. Ahead of the trough a moist and unstable airmass is forecast across much of the Great Plains eastward into the Mississippi Valley. Scattered elevated strong thunderstorms will be possible early in the day from the northern Plains eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Southward into the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley, strong surface heating is forecast. Some models suggest MLCAPE could peak in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. In addition, a broad 40 to 50 knot low-level jet is forecast to strengthen late Sunday afternoon. This, combined with moderate to strong deep-layer shear over much of the moist sector will be favorable for severe storms potentially over a large area. A severe weather outbreak will be possible from the afternoon and evening into the early overnight period. The setup appears favorable for supercells with tornadoes, large to very large hail and wind damage.
On Monday, model forecasts eject a negatively-tilted upper-level trough into the central Plains. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be located from the southern and central Plains northeastward into the Upper Midwest. A mid-level jet is forecast to also eject northeastward across the central Plains as a broad low-level jet strengthens during the late afternoon. Thunderstorm development is expected along the western edge of the airmass near a dryline over west-central Kansas and southeast Nebraska. Thunderstorms that move into the strong low-level flow in the late afternoon and early evening will have potential to be supercells with large to very large hail, and tornadoes. Severe wind gusts will also be possible. A severe weather outbreak will be possible from Monday afternoon into evening and overnight period.
Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8
On Tuesday, mid-level southwesterly flow is forecast over the central U.S., with a cold front moving southeastward through the central Plains and Upper Midwest. Ahead of this front, surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to the lower 70s F are expected to contribute to moderate to strong instability. Thunderstorm development with a severe threat will be possible along and ahead of the front during the afternoon and evening from the northern part of the southern Plains northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley.
On Wednesday and Thursday, the cold front is forecast to move slowly southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon and evening. However, uncertainty concerning the exact location of the front is substantial at this extended range.
..Broyles.. 05/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
| Day 4 | Sunday, May 17 | 30% |
| Day 5 | Monday, May 18 | 30% |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, May 19 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, May 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, May 21 | predictability too low |
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140901 SPC AC 140901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/SUN…D5/MON
### DISCUSSION
Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5
An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the Intermountain West on Sunday, as a subtle shortwave trough moves northeastward across the Great Plains. Ahead of the trough a moist and unstable airmass is forecast across much of the Great Plains eastward into the Mississippi Valley. Scattered elevated strong thunderstorms will be possible early in the day from the northern Plains eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Southward into the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley, strong surface heating is forecast. Some models suggest MLCAPE could peak in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. In addition, a broad 40 to 50 knot low-level jet is forecast to strengthen late Sunday afternoon. This, combined with moderate to strong deep-layer shear over much of the moist sector will be favorable for severe storms potentially over a large area. A severe weather outbreak will be possible from the afternoon and evening into the early overnight period. The setup appears favorable for supercells with tornadoes, large to very large hail and wind damage.
On Monday, model forecasts eject a negatively-tilted upper-level trough into the central Plains. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be located from the southern and central Plains northeastward into the Upper Midwest. A mid-level jet is forecast to also eject northeastward across the central Plains as a broad low-level jet strengthens during the late afternoon. Thunderstorm development is expected along the western edge of the airmass near a dryline over west-central Kansas and southeast Nebraska. Thunderstorms that move into the strong low-level flow in the late afternoon and early evening will have potential to be supercells with large to very large hail, and tornadoes. Severe wind gusts will also be possible. A severe weather outbreak will be possible from Monday afternoon into evening and overnight period.
Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8
On Tuesday, mid-level southwesterly flow is forecast over the central U.S., with a cold front moving southeastward through the central Plains and Upper Midwest. Ahead of this front, surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to the lower 70s F are expected to contribute to moderate to strong instability. Thunderstorm development with a severe threat will be possible along and ahead of the front during the afternoon and evening from the northern part of the southern Plains northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley.
On Wednesday and Thursday, the cold front is forecast to move slowly southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon and evening. However, uncertainty concerning the exact location of the front is substantial at this extended range.
..Broyles.. 05/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
| Day 4 | Sunday, May 17 | 30% |
| Day 5 | Monday, May 18 | 30% |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, May 19 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, May 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, May 21 | predictability too low |
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140901 SPC AC 140901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/SUN…D5/MON
### DISCUSSION
Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5
An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the Intermountain West on Sunday, as a subtle shortwave trough moves northeastward across the Great Plains. Ahead of the trough a moist and unstable airmass is forecast across much of the Great Plains eastward into the Mississippi Valley. Scattered elevated strong thunderstorms will be possible early in the day from the northern Plains eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Southward into the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley, strong surface heating is forecast. Some models suggest MLCAPE could peak in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. In addition, a broad 40 to 50 knot low-level jet is forecast to strengthen late Sunday afternoon. This, combined with moderate to strong deep-layer shear over much of the moist sector will be favorable for severe storms potentially over a large area. A severe weather outbreak will be possible from the afternoon and evening into the early overnight period. The setup appears favorable for supercells with tornadoes, large to very large hail and wind damage.
On Monday, model forecasts eject a negatively-tilted upper-level trough into the central Plains. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be located from the southern and central Plains northeastward into the Upper Midwest. A mid-level jet is forecast to also eject northeastward across the central Plains as a broad low-level jet strengthens during the late afternoon. Thunderstorm development is expected along the western edge of the airmass near a dryline over west-central Kansas and southeast Nebraska. Thunderstorms that move into the strong low-level flow in the late afternoon and early evening will have potential to be supercells with large to very large hail, and tornadoes. Severe wind gusts will also be possible. A severe weather outbreak will be possible from Monday afternoon into evening and overnight period.
Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8
On Tuesday, mid-level southwesterly flow is forecast over the central U.S., with a cold front moving southeastward through the central Plains and Upper Midwest. Ahead of this front, surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to the lower 70s F are expected to contribute to moderate to strong instability. Thunderstorm development with a severe threat will be possible along and ahead of the front during the afternoon and evening from the northern part of the southern Plains northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley.
On Wednesday and Thursday, the cold front is forecast to move slowly southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon and evening. However, uncertainty concerning the exact location of the front is substantial at this extended range.
..Broyles.. 05/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
| Day 4 | Sunday, May 17 | 30% |
| Day 5 | Monday, May 18 | 30% |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, May 19 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, May 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, May 21 | predictability too low |
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140901 SPC AC 140901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/SUN…D5/MON
### DISCUSSION
Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5
An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the Intermountain West on Sunday, as a subtle shortwave trough moves northeastward across the Great Plains. Ahead of the trough a moist and unstable airmass is forecast across much of the Great Plains eastward into the Mississippi Valley. Scattered elevated strong thunderstorms will be possible early in the day from the northern Plains eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Southward into the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley, strong surface heating is forecast. Some models suggest MLCAPE could peak in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. In addition, a broad 40 to 50 knot low-level jet is forecast to strengthen late Sunday afternoon. This, combined with moderate to strong deep-layer shear over much of the moist sector will be favorable for severe storms potentially over a large area. A severe weather outbreak will be possible from the afternoon and evening into the early overnight period. The setup appears favorable for supercells with tornadoes, large to very large hail and wind damage.
On Monday, model forecasts eject a negatively-tilted upper-level trough into the central Plains. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be located from the southern and central Plains northeastward into the Upper Midwest. A mid-level jet is forecast to also eject northeastward across the central Plains as a broad low-level jet strengthens during the late afternoon. Thunderstorm development is expected along the western edge of the airmass near a dryline over west-central Kansas and southeast Nebraska. Thunderstorms that move into the strong low-level flow in the late afternoon and early evening will have potential to be supercells with large to very large hail, and tornadoes. Severe wind gusts will also be possible. A severe weather outbreak will be possible from Monday afternoon into evening and overnight period.
Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8
On Tuesday, mid-level southwesterly flow is forecast over the central U.S., with a cold front moving southeastward through the central Plains and Upper Midwest. Ahead of this front, surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to the lower 70s F are expected to contribute to moderate to strong instability. Thunderstorm development with a severe threat will be possible along and ahead of the front during the afternoon and evening from the northern part of the southern Plains northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley.
On Wednesday and Thursday, the cold front is forecast to move slowly southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon and evening. However, uncertainty concerning the exact location of the front is substantial at this extended range.
..Broyles.. 05/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
| Day 4 | Sunday, May 17 | 30% |
| Day 5 | Monday, May 18 | 30% |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, May 19 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, May 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, May 21 | predictability too low |
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140901 SPC AC 140901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/SUN…D5/MON
### DISCUSSION
Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5
An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the Intermountain West on Sunday, as a subtle shortwave trough moves northeastward across the Great Plains. Ahead of the trough a moist and unstable airmass is forecast across much of the Great Plains eastward into the Mississippi Valley. Scattered elevated strong thunderstorms will be possible early in the day from the northern Plains eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Southward into the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley, strong surface heating is forecast. Some models suggest MLCAPE could peak in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. In addition, a broad 40 to 50 knot low-level jet is forecast to strengthen late Sunday afternoon. This, combined with moderate to strong deep-layer shear over much of the moist sector will be favorable for severe storms potentially over a large area. A severe weather outbreak will be possible from the afternoon and evening into the early overnight period. The setup appears favorable for supercells with tornadoes, large to very large hail and wind damage.
On Monday, model forecasts eject a negatively-tilted upper-level trough into the central Plains. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be located from the southern and central Plains northeastward into the Upper Midwest. A mid-level jet is forecast to also eject northeastward across the central Plains as a broad low-level jet strengthens during the late afternoon. Thunderstorm development is expected along the western edge of the airmass near a dryline over west-central Kansas and southeast Nebraska. Thunderstorms that move into the strong low-level flow in the late afternoon and early evening will have potential to be supercells with large to very large hail, and tornadoes. Severe wind gusts will also be possible. A severe weather outbreak will be possible from Monday afternoon into evening and overnight period.
Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8
On Tuesday, mid-level southwesterly flow is forecast over the central U.S., with a cold front moving southeastward through the central Plains and Upper Midwest. Ahead of this front, surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to the lower 70s F are expected to contribute to moderate to strong instability. Thunderstorm development with a severe threat will be possible along and ahead of the front during the afternoon and evening from the northern part of the southern Plains northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley.
On Wednesday and Thursday, the cold front is forecast to move slowly southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon and evening. However, uncertainty concerning the exact location of the front is substantial at this extended range.
..Broyles.. 05/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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