Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Sunday, July 19

Monday, July 20

Tuesday, July 21

Wednesday, July 22

Thursday, July 23

Friday, July 24

Saturday, July 25

Sunday, July 26

Outlook for Sunday, July 19

Outlook Summary

Scattered damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon over portions of the Southeast. Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and large hail are possible late this afternoon through tonight from the Dakotas into Minnesota.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind 15%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 191953

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Valid 192000Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC

### SUMMARY

Scattered damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon over portions of the Southeast. Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and large hail are possible late this afternoon through tonight from the Dakotas into Minnesota.

20z Update

The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor adjustments made based on recent convective trends and latest high-res ensemble guidance.

Georgia and Mid-Atlantic

Across northern Georgia, convection has thus far exhibited mostly pulse-like behavior with transient and weak updrafts. Regional velocity imagery shows occasional swaths of strong winds embedded within downbursts, so some localized damaging wind threat will likely persist across the region through early evening given hot low-level conditions surrounding ongoing storms. However, based on these observed trends, limited clustering, and weak convective signals in latest guidance, the 15% wind probabilities have been trimmed eastward to align with more favorable thermodynamic conditions (particularly steeper low-level lapse rates) and where guidance continues to show some thunderstorm potential through late afternoon. See MCD #1660 for additional near-term forecast information.

Further east, a mix of thunderstorm clusters and loosely organized cells has been observed with occasional reports of wind damage noted over the past few hours. Based on recent mesoanalyses, the best thermodynamic and kinematic environment remain across eastern VA/NC, and consideration was made for introducing 5% hail probabilities. However, MRMS VIL/MESH trends show relatively transient and weak hail cores, suggesting that damaging winds will remain the predominant threat through early evening.

Northern High Plains

Latest HRRR/RRFS time-lagged ensembles continue to show a strong signal for severe wind across south-central ND and far northern SD later this evening as thunderstorms develop along the approaching cold front. Observational trends seem to support this as low 70 dewpoints continue to spread north into ND and pre-frontal cumulus begins to develop along the western SD/ND border. Aside from minor adjustments of probability/intensity lines to better align with recent guidance and satellite trends, forecast thoughts outlined in the previous discussion (below) remain on track.

..Moore.. 07/19/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026/

Dakotas/MN this afternoon into tonight

A midlevel trough over southern SK will suppress the northern extent of the ridge over the Great Plains as an associated surface trough/front moves into ND this afternoon. Strong surface heating/mixing and weak ascent along the wind shift could support thunderstorm development after about 22z beginning in south central ND and expanding into northern SD and northeast ND through late evening. The initial storms will be relatively high based with forecast hodographs favoring splitting supercells capable of producing significant outflow gusts (80+ mph) and isolated very large hail (2-3+ inch diameter). Storms are expected to evolve into a cluster or two tonight while spreading east-southeastward toward western MN with a continued threat for occasional severe outflow gusts and large hail.

Carolinas and vicinity this afternoon/evening

A weak cold front will continue to drift southward across VA/KY toward NC through the afternoon, in association with the southern periphery of a midlevel trough moving over the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. The southern extent of ~30 kt midlevel flow overlaps the baroclinic zone and northern extent of the unstable warm sector. Though midlevel lapse rates are not steep per 12z soundings, surface temperatures warming into the 90-95 F range with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s will drive MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg with negligible convective inhibition and steepening low-level lapse rates. Scattered thunderstorm development is likely by early-mid afternoon along the differential heating zone near the cold front, as well as along a subtle surface trough across eastern NC. Multicell clusters are the primary expected storm mode with the potential to produce occasional wind damage with downbursts this afternoon/evening. Vertical shear will be a little stronger across southeast VA/northeast NC where some storm organization will be possible.

Tropical Depression 2 in the eastern Gulf

NHC has initiated advisories on Tropical Depression 2 in the eastern Gulf, centered roughly 130 n mi west of Tampa as of 15z. Though some outer eastern bands will affect the FL Gulf coast this afternoon, it appears that enhancements to flow/shear are too marginal to support any substantial threat of outer band supercells/tornadoes along the FL Gulf coast through tonight. Still, isolated strong outflow gusts will be possible with broken thunderstorm bands this afternoon/evening across central/north FL and south GA.

AL area this afternoon

Strong surface heating to the west and south of ongoing storm clusters in northern and eastern AL will contribute to destabilization and the potential for stronger storms within the clusters that will spread south/southwestward through the afternoon. Precipitation loading and steepening low-level lapse rates could support isolated downbursts and wind damage with the strongest storms.

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

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Outlook for Monday, July 20

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are probable across portions of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes vicinity on Monday. Swaths of damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes will all be possible. Isolated strong to damaging gusts may occur over parts of the Carolinas.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 5%

wind 30%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 191733

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM IOW ACROSS WISCONSIN AND INTO WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are probable across portions of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes vicinity on Monday. Swaths of damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes will all be possible. Isolated strong to damaging gusts may occur over parts of the Carolinas.

From IA across WI and into Upper MI

A substantial shortwave trough will dive southeastward across the upper MS Valley and toward the Great Lakes, with a broad area of 50-70 kt midlevel northwesterlies. Upper-level winds will be stronger, with over 100 kt at 300 mb from MN into WI. Cool temperatures aloft will also result in steep midlevel lapse rates over 7 C/km.

A few early day storms may produce hail over eastern MN into western WI as elevated instability will be strong and effective shear over 50 kt. This activity is expected to wane during the day, with new storms developing along the cold front as it pushes into western Upper MI, WI, and northern IA.

Initial storms should primarily be supercells given such strong shear. A corridor of tornado risk is evident east of the instability axis from IA across WI and into Upper MI, and effective SRH may exceed 300 m2/s2. Surface winds may veer with time, but any rightward movement off the hodograph may lead to a large increase of effective SRH for some of the larger supercells.

A conditional risk of a strong tornado also exists from far northeast IA across much of WI. Here, 0-3 km shear will be strong, with 50 kt winds at 700 mb. Several models indicate a VGP at or above 0.4.

With time, some of the cells may bow southeastward with corridors of significant wind damage and hail possible.

Southern VA into NC

Daytime heating, 70s F dewpoints and surface convergence near a weak low will aid storm formation from western into central NC after 20Z. MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg, PWAT over 2.00", and westerly flow aloft near 20 kt will lead to multicellular storm mode with locally damaging wind gusts.

..Jewell.. 07/19/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, July 21

Outlook Summary

Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across a broad region from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Tuesday. All severe hazards are possible, but swaths of damaging wind gusts should be the primary severe risk Tuesday afternoon into the nighttime hours.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 45%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 191934

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF KENTUCKY NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA

### SUMMARY

Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across a broad region from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Tuesday. All severe hazards are possible, but swaths of damaging wind gusts should be the primary severe risk Tuesday afternoon into the nighttime hours.

OH Valley into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast

Severe storms will be likely over a large area Tuesday, from parts of the Midwest and Ohio valley extending across the Mid Atlantic as increasing winds aloft overspread a large area of low-level moisture.

A mean upper trough will remain over much of region, with various waves rotating around. A leading wave will aid storm development during the day from eastern VA northward into southwest New England, well ahead of the main cold front to the west. Southwest flow at 850 mb of 30-40 kt will support northward moisture advection as winds aloft increase, and storms should form by early to mid afternoon within a pre-frontal trough. Veering winds with height should support scattered supercells or storm clusters, and damaging winds or isolated tornadoes may occur.

Meanwhile, an area of greater severe potential will develop immediately near and ahead of a cold front which should extend roughly from northern OH/IN into southern IL during the afternoon. This region will be ahead of a stronger mid/upper jet in a northwest flow regime. Dewpoints are expected to be in the 70s F with MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg and effective shear of 40-50 kt. The long hodographs should support a dominant supercell storm mode, with large hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging winds all possible from late afternoon into the night.

The greatest risk area is currently forecast from parts of Kentucky and Indiana across Ohio, West Virginia, and western Pennsylvania. However, these areas will likely be adjusted spatially as predictability increases in later updates.

..Jewell.. 07/19/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, July 22

Outlook Images

any severe 15%

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, July 22	15%
Day 5	Thursday, July 23	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, July 24	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, July 25	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, July 26	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190746 SPC AC 190746

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Wed - Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas

An upper trough will lift northeast across the region on Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front will be oriented from roughly the Hudson Valley to the central Appalachians at the beginning of the period. Within a zone of strong warm advection ahead of the surface front, widespread showers and thunderstorm may be ongoing across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, resulting in uncertainty regarding northward extent of severe potential. For now, the 15 percent severe probability has been confined to portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas ahead of the surface trough/cold front. A very moist airmass will be in place across the region, and 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes are forecast. Thunderstorm clusters or linear bands are expected to move across the region through evening, posing mainly a risk for damaging winds.

Days 5-8/Thu-Sun

Severe potential is expected to be lower late in the week into the weekend. An upper trough will persist over the eastern U.S., but deep-layer flow will be weak. Further west, the subtropical high will intensify over the Plains and into the Four Corners vicinity while the associated amplified upper ridge persists northward into the Canadian Prairies. As boundary layer moisture spreads northward beneath the upper ridge, some severe potential could develop each day across parts of the High Plains. However, this will largely be driven by mesoscale processes not well resolved at longer lead times. Overall, the intense upper ridge should largely suppress greater severe potential.

..Leitman.. 07/19/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Thursday, July 23

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, July 22	15%
Day 5	Thursday, July 23	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, July 24	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, July 25	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, July 26	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190746 SPC AC 190746

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Wed - Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas

An upper trough will lift northeast across the region on Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front will be oriented from roughly the Hudson Valley to the central Appalachians at the beginning of the period. Within a zone of strong warm advection ahead of the surface front, widespread showers and thunderstorm may be ongoing across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, resulting in uncertainty regarding northward extent of severe potential. For now, the 15 percent severe probability has been confined to portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas ahead of the surface trough/cold front. A very moist airmass will be in place across the region, and 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes are forecast. Thunderstorm clusters or linear bands are expected to move across the region through evening, posing mainly a risk for damaging winds.

Days 5-8/Thu-Sun

Severe potential is expected to be lower late in the week into the weekend. An upper trough will persist over the eastern U.S., but deep-layer flow will be weak. Further west, the subtropical high will intensify over the Plains and into the Four Corners vicinity while the associated amplified upper ridge persists northward into the Canadian Prairies. As boundary layer moisture spreads northward beneath the upper ridge, some severe potential could develop each day across parts of the High Plains. However, this will largely be driven by mesoscale processes not well resolved at longer lead times. Overall, the intense upper ridge should largely suppress greater severe potential.

..Leitman.. 07/19/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Friday, July 24

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, July 22	15%
Day 5	Thursday, July 23	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, July 24	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, July 25	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, July 26	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190746 SPC AC 190746

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Wed - Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas

An upper trough will lift northeast across the region on Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front will be oriented from roughly the Hudson Valley to the central Appalachians at the beginning of the period. Within a zone of strong warm advection ahead of the surface front, widespread showers and thunderstorm may be ongoing across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, resulting in uncertainty regarding northward extent of severe potential. For now, the 15 percent severe probability has been confined to portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas ahead of the surface trough/cold front. A very moist airmass will be in place across the region, and 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes are forecast. Thunderstorm clusters or linear bands are expected to move across the region through evening, posing mainly a risk for damaging winds.

Days 5-8/Thu-Sun

Severe potential is expected to be lower late in the week into the weekend. An upper trough will persist over the eastern U.S., but deep-layer flow will be weak. Further west, the subtropical high will intensify over the Plains and into the Four Corners vicinity while the associated amplified upper ridge persists northward into the Canadian Prairies. As boundary layer moisture spreads northward beneath the upper ridge, some severe potential could develop each day across parts of the High Plains. However, this will largely be driven by mesoscale processes not well resolved at longer lead times. Overall, the intense upper ridge should largely suppress greater severe potential.

..Leitman.. 07/19/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Saturday, July 25

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, July 22	15%
Day 5	Thursday, July 23	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, July 24	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, July 25	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, July 26	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190746 SPC AC 190746

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Wed - Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas

An upper trough will lift northeast across the region on Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front will be oriented from roughly the Hudson Valley to the central Appalachians at the beginning of the period. Within a zone of strong warm advection ahead of the surface front, widespread showers and thunderstorm may be ongoing across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, resulting in uncertainty regarding northward extent of severe potential. For now, the 15 percent severe probability has been confined to portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas ahead of the surface trough/cold front. A very moist airmass will be in place across the region, and 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes are forecast. Thunderstorm clusters or linear bands are expected to move across the region through evening, posing mainly a risk for damaging winds.

Days 5-8/Thu-Sun

Severe potential is expected to be lower late in the week into the weekend. An upper trough will persist over the eastern U.S., but deep-layer flow will be weak. Further west, the subtropical high will intensify over the Plains and into the Four Corners vicinity while the associated amplified upper ridge persists northward into the Canadian Prairies. As boundary layer moisture spreads northward beneath the upper ridge, some severe potential could develop each day across parts of the High Plains. However, this will largely be driven by mesoscale processes not well resolved at longer lead times. Overall, the intense upper ridge should largely suppress greater severe potential.

..Leitman.. 07/19/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Sunday, July 26

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, July 22	15%
Day 5	Thursday, July 23	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, July 24	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, July 25	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, July 26	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190746 SPC AC 190746

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Wed - Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas

An upper trough will lift northeast across the region on Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front will be oriented from roughly the Hudson Valley to the central Appalachians at the beginning of the period. Within a zone of strong warm advection ahead of the surface front, widespread showers and thunderstorm may be ongoing across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, resulting in uncertainty regarding northward extent of severe potential. For now, the 15 percent severe probability has been confined to portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas ahead of the surface trough/cold front. A very moist airmass will be in place across the region, and 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes are forecast. Thunderstorm clusters or linear bands are expected to move across the region through evening, posing mainly a risk for damaging winds.

Days 5-8/Thu-Sun

Severe potential is expected to be lower late in the week into the weekend. An upper trough will persist over the eastern U.S., but deep-layer flow will be weak. Further west, the subtropical high will intensify over the Plains and into the Four Corners vicinity while the associated amplified upper ridge persists northward into the Canadian Prairies. As boundary layer moisture spreads northward beneath the upper ridge, some severe potential could develop each day across parts of the High Plains. However, this will largely be driven by mesoscale processes not well resolved at longer lead times. Overall, the intense upper ridge should largely suppress greater severe potential.

..Leitman.. 07/19/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

National Risk Overview

Sunday, July 19: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Monday, July 20: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 30%
Tuesday, July 21: ANY SEVERE: 45%
Wednesday, July 22: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Thursday, July 23: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, July 24: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, July 25: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, July 26: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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