Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, September 19
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with scattered severe wind gusts and large hail are possible this evening across parts of the central Plains and Lower Missouri Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 200057
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026
Valid 200100Z - 201200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS TO NORTHWEST MISSOURI…AND IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with scattered severe wind gusts and large hail are possible this evening across parts of the central Plains and Lower Missouri Valley.
Southern and Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley
The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level trough over the Intermountain West, with southwesterly flow aloft from the southern and central Rockies eastward into much of the Great Plains. A shortwave trough appears to be located in central Kansas, close to the position of a front oriented from southwest to northeast across the central Plains. Near and to the southeast of the boundary, surface dewpoints are in the 60s and lower 70s F, which is contributing to moderate instability. The RAP shows an axis of MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range from central Kansas northeastward into northwest Missouri and southern Iowa…see MCD 2312. Scattered strong to severe storms are ongoing along the southwestern part of this corridor of moderate instability…see MCD 2311.
The 00Z sounding at Topeka has MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg with 0-6 km shear around 20 knots, and a 0-3 km lapse rate just above 7.5 C/km. RAP analysis suggests that deep-layer shear is stronger near the front. The environment will support a continued severe threat this evening. Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be the primary threats. The line that is currently developing in northeast Kansas may continue to have a severe threat later this evening as it tracks northeastward into northwest Missouri and far southern Iowa. A marginal wind-damage threat will extend southwestward along a surface trough into parts of west Texas.
In the central High Plains, the western edge of moderate instability extends westward into far western Kansas. Scattered strong storms are ongoing near the Colorado-Kansas state line where the RAP has MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg. The Goodland WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear around 50 knots, and the RAP has 700-500 mb lapse rates in western Kansas near 7.5 C/km. This will support a supercell threat this evening with a potential for isolated large hail. Severe wind gusts will also be possible…see MCD 2313.
..Broyles.. 09/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Sunday, September 20
Outlook Summary
A few severe wind and hail producing thunderstorms are possible over eastern Colorado on Sunday, with severe gusts also possible with storms over portions of Oklahoma. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible from the Ozarks to the central Appalachians.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 191658
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA
### SUMMARY
A few severe wind and hail producing thunderstorms are possible over eastern Colorado on Sunday, with severe gusts also possible with storms over portions of Oklahoma. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible from the Ozarks to the central Appalachians.
Central/Southern Plains
A weak upper shortwave trough will move across the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains on Sunday. This will bring modestly enhanced mid/upper westerly flow to the region. At the surface, easterly upslope flow is expected across eastern CO into the OK/TX Panhandles. Vertically veering wind profiles will foster 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. Steepening midlevel lapse rates and modest MLCAPE (500-1500 J/kg) amid favorable vertical shear profiles will foster potential for organized updrafts capable of isolated large hail. Surface temperatures will be somewhat cool, but strong heating will result in steepening low-level lapse rates as well, and isolated gusty outflow winds also will be possible.
Further south into the OK/TX Panhandle vicinity, somewhat better boundary layer moisture will be in place in the vicinity of a cold front. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon and may pose a risk for isolated marginal hail and gusty winds. Further east across OK, a surface low is forecast across western portions of the state, with a cold front extending southwest to northeast across north-central/northeast OK. Rich boundary layer moisture is forecast near and east of the front, supporting moderate instability (1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) where stronger heating occurs. Early day showers and cloud cover introduces some uncertainty regarding location of better severe risk during the afternoon/evening, but isolated to scattered thunderstorm clusters will pose a risk of wind damage and perhaps isolate hail across parts of OK into north TX.
Ozark to Ohio Valley
A surface cold front will extend west to east from central MO to central OH by midday. A seasonally moist airmass and strong heating ahead of the boundary will support widely scattered thunderstorm develop as the front develops south through the afternoon/evening. Weak vertical shear will limit longevity/organization of stronger storm updrafts. Nevertheless, moderate instability (1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) and steepened low-level lapse rates will support some risk for isolated damaging gusts. Cool temperatures aloft may also support marginal hail in the stronger updraft pulses.
Central Appalachians
Thunderstorms are expected to develop near higher terrain along a surface trough Sunday afternoon across parts WV/VA. Vertical shear and midlevel lapse rates are expected to remain weak. However, a moist airmass will support modest instability and steepening low-level lapse rates will aid in isolated strong outflow gusts, perhaps resulting in sporadic wind damage.
..Leitman.. 09/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Monday, September 21
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms over parts of the southern and central Appalachians on Monday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 191911
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms over parts of the southern and central Appalachians on Monday.
Central/Southern Appalachians
Mainly zonal flow will overspread the eastern CONUS on Monday. While weak westerly flow aloft is forecast, a surface cold front will continue to develop southward across the Midwest, TN Valley and central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic regions. A moist airmass ahead of the front, characterized by 60s to low 70s F dewpoints, will support a corridor of moderate instability (1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) from the eastern TN Valley toward the southern/central Appalachians. Where stronger heating occurs, steepened low-level lapse rates are forecast. Sufficient instability coupled with steep low-level lapse rates and PW values around 1.75 inches may support sporadic strong gusts from wet microbursts across parts of the TN Valley into southern VA and western/central NC.
..Leitman.. 09/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Tuesday, September 22
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, September 22 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, September 23 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, September 24 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, September 25 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, September 26 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190824 SPC AC 190824
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
An initially zonal mid-level flow regime will gradually transition to a more amplified upper-air pattern, characterized by ridging over the Plains states through the week into next weekend. As this occurs, low-level moisture will continue to be shunted southward as cooler mid-level temperatures remain relatively confined west of the Rockies, and flow aloft remains modest at best. As a result, there are no clear signals for an organized threat of severe thunderstorms across the CONUS for Days 4-8 (Tuesday-Saturday).
..Squitieri.. 09/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, September 23
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, September 22 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, September 23 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, September 24 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, September 25 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, September 26 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190824 SPC AC 190824
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
An initially zonal mid-level flow regime will gradually transition to a more amplified upper-air pattern, characterized by ridging over the Plains states through the week into next weekend. As this occurs, low-level moisture will continue to be shunted southward as cooler mid-level temperatures remain relatively confined west of the Rockies, and flow aloft remains modest at best. As a result, there are no clear signals for an organized threat of severe thunderstorms across the CONUS for Days 4-8 (Tuesday-Saturday).
..Squitieri.. 09/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, September 24
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, September 22 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, September 23 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, September 24 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, September 25 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, September 26 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190824 SPC AC 190824
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
An initially zonal mid-level flow regime will gradually transition to a more amplified upper-air pattern, characterized by ridging over the Plains states through the week into next weekend. As this occurs, low-level moisture will continue to be shunted southward as cooler mid-level temperatures remain relatively confined west of the Rockies, and flow aloft remains modest at best. As a result, there are no clear signals for an organized threat of severe thunderstorms across the CONUS for Days 4-8 (Tuesday-Saturday).
..Squitieri.. 09/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, September 25
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, September 22 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, September 23 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, September 24 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, September 25 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, September 26 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190824 SPC AC 190824
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
An initially zonal mid-level flow regime will gradually transition to a more amplified upper-air pattern, characterized by ridging over the Plains states through the week into next weekend. As this occurs, low-level moisture will continue to be shunted southward as cooler mid-level temperatures remain relatively confined west of the Rockies, and flow aloft remains modest at best. As a result, there are no clear signals for an organized threat of severe thunderstorms across the CONUS for Days 4-8 (Tuesday-Saturday).
..Squitieri.. 09/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, September 26
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, September 22 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, September 23 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, September 24 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, September 25 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, September 26 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190824 SPC AC 190824
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
An initially zonal mid-level flow regime will gradually transition to a more amplified upper-air pattern, characterized by ridging over the Plains states through the week into next weekend. As this occurs, low-level moisture will continue to be shunted southward as cooler mid-level temperatures remain relatively confined west of the Rockies, and flow aloft remains modest at best. As a result, there are no clear signals for an organized threat of severe thunderstorms across the CONUS for Days 4-8 (Tuesday-Saturday).
..Squitieri.. 09/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, September 19
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Sunday, September 20
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Monday, September 21
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Tuesday, September 22
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, September 23
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, September 24
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, September 25
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, September 26
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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