Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, October 5
Outlook Summary
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 051956
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2026
Valid 052000Z - 061200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
20z Update
No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information.
..Thornton.. 10/05/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Oct 05 2026/
Synopsis and Discussion
Rather strong west-southwesterly low/mid-level flow will overspread the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic today as an upper trough/low over Quebec moves eastward through the period. While locally gusty winds may occur with low-topped convection across parts of New England, limited low-level moisture and related meager instability will likely hinder an organized severe wind threat.
Showers and occasional thunderstorms will persist today over portions of the Southeast as a slow-moving front remains draped from the northern Gulf into southern GA/northern FL. A moist airmass is in place south of this boundary, but weak low/mid-level winds, poor lapse rates aloft, and effective bulk shear less than 30 kt will hamper updraft organization and severe potential.
Elsewhere, isolated convection may continue today across parts of the Sierra into Great Basin, and over parts of the southern/central Rockies, as a weak upper trough develops eastward. Elevated thunderstorms may also occur late this afternoon through tonight across parts of the Upper Midwest. For all these regions, weak instability will greatly limit the risk for severe thunderstorms.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Tuesday, October 6
Outlook Summary
Severe storms are unlikely Tuesday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 051730
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe storms are unlikely Tuesday.
Synopsis
Strong northwest flow will intensify over the northern third of the US behind a departing upper trough over the western Atlantic. A secondary low-amplitude trough over southern Canada is forecast to move across the Upper Great Lakes and intensify as is moves into the northern US. Cool mid-level temperatures beneath the deepening trough could support isolated thunderstorms across the northern Great Lakes late Tuesday. Otherwise, the cool northerly flow and high pressure over the eastern states will favor drier and more stable conditions for much of the region.
To the south of the surface high pressure, scattered thunderstorms will again be likely over the Gulf Coast and into central and southern Florida as northeast surface winds push a cold front farther south. Severe storms are not expected as lapse rates and vertical shear are forecast to remain weak.
A weak upper trough and a pocket of cooler mid-level temperatures moving over the Rockies is forecast to steepen low/mid-level lapse rates through the day. While ascent and overall moisture will be modest, sufficient buoyancy could support isolated thunderstorms over the higher terrain.
..Lyons.. 10/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Wednesday, October 7
Outlook Summary
Severe storms are not expected on Wednesday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 051929
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe storms are not expected on Wednesday.
Synopsis
An initially low-amplitude upper trough over southern Canada and the northern US will deepen into an upper low as it and an associated strong mid-level jet move over the Great Lakes and Northeast. A cold front and cooling mid-level temperatures will support weak buoyancy beneath the upper low, with isolated thunderstorms likely to be ongoing early Wednesday. This may continue through the day with strong height falls overspreading the Lakes and Northeast. A few low-topped showers/storms with sporadic lightning may continue into early Thursday. Otherwise, drier and cooler conditions associated with the advancing cold front will limit thunderstorm potential over much of the central and eastern US.
Meanwhile, a modest southern-stream upper jet will extend from the Desert Southwest into TX, and across the Gulf Coast states where a remnant front will be stalled along the coast. Isolated thunderstorms will again be possible over the FL Peninsula, and southern LA/TX near the more robust surface moisture. However, instability and shear will be weak enough to preclude any severe weather chances.
Across the West, daytime heating, residual monsoon moisture and the presence of cool temperatures aloft with a weak upper trough over the Rockies will support scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms over parts of UT, CO, AZ and NM. Easterly upslope flow associated with the cold front moving down the Plains may also support an isolated storm or two across western/central NE overnight into early Thursday. Meager instability and ascent will preclude severe weather potential.
..Lyons.. 10/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Thursday, October 8
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, October 8 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, October 9 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, October 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, October 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, October 12 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050857 SPC AC 050857
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Mon Oct 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
Little severe weather threat is evident from Thur/D4 through Fri/D5, as a broad upper trough over the Great Lakes and Northeast maintain cool conditions, with high pressure over much of the eastern states preventing moisture return.
For late Sat/D6 into Sun/D7, conditional severe potential may develop along the northern Gulf Coast, depending on the evolution of a tropical disturbance currently over the southwest Gulf of America. NHC currently denotes a 50% chance of cyclone development. A weak midlevel trough is also forecast to develop over TX, and move across the Gulf Coast states during the same time. The combination of increasing moisture and shear could result in an area of tornado potential. Any such event is highly conditional on cyclone formation, and potential will continue to be monitored.
From Sun/D7 and beyond, models suggest a western trough may develop, though model spread is high.
..Jewell.. 10/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, October 9
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, October 8 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, October 9 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, October 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, October 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, October 12 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050857 SPC AC 050857
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Mon Oct 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
Little severe weather threat is evident from Thur/D4 through Fri/D5, as a broad upper trough over the Great Lakes and Northeast maintain cool conditions, with high pressure over much of the eastern states preventing moisture return.
For late Sat/D6 into Sun/D7, conditional severe potential may develop along the northern Gulf Coast, depending on the evolution of a tropical disturbance currently over the southwest Gulf of America. NHC currently denotes a 50% chance of cyclone development. A weak midlevel trough is also forecast to develop over TX, and move across the Gulf Coast states during the same time. The combination of increasing moisture and shear could result in an area of tornado potential. Any such event is highly conditional on cyclone formation, and potential will continue to be monitored.
From Sun/D7 and beyond, models suggest a western trough may develop, though model spread is high.
..Jewell.. 10/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, October 10
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, October 8 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, October 9 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, October 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, October 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, October 12 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050857 SPC AC 050857
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Mon Oct 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
Little severe weather threat is evident from Thur/D4 through Fri/D5, as a broad upper trough over the Great Lakes and Northeast maintain cool conditions, with high pressure over much of the eastern states preventing moisture return.
For late Sat/D6 into Sun/D7, conditional severe potential may develop along the northern Gulf Coast, depending on the evolution of a tropical disturbance currently over the southwest Gulf of America. NHC currently denotes a 50% chance of cyclone development. A weak midlevel trough is also forecast to develop over TX, and move across the Gulf Coast states during the same time. The combination of increasing moisture and shear could result in an area of tornado potential. Any such event is highly conditional on cyclone formation, and potential will continue to be monitored.
From Sun/D7 and beyond, models suggest a western trough may develop, though model spread is high.
..Jewell.. 10/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, October 11
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, October 8 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, October 9 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, October 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, October 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, October 12 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050857 SPC AC 050857
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Mon Oct 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
Little severe weather threat is evident from Thur/D4 through Fri/D5, as a broad upper trough over the Great Lakes and Northeast maintain cool conditions, with high pressure over much of the eastern states preventing moisture return.
For late Sat/D6 into Sun/D7, conditional severe potential may develop along the northern Gulf Coast, depending on the evolution of a tropical disturbance currently over the southwest Gulf of America. NHC currently denotes a 50% chance of cyclone development. A weak midlevel trough is also forecast to develop over TX, and move across the Gulf Coast states during the same time. The combination of increasing moisture and shear could result in an area of tornado potential. Any such event is highly conditional on cyclone formation, and potential will continue to be monitored.
From Sun/D7 and beyond, models suggest a western trough may develop, though model spread is high.
..Jewell.. 10/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, October 12
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, October 8 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, October 9 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, October 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, October 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, October 12 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050857 SPC AC 050857
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Mon Oct 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
Little severe weather threat is evident from Thur/D4 through Fri/D5, as a broad upper trough over the Great Lakes and Northeast maintain cool conditions, with high pressure over much of the eastern states preventing moisture return.
For late Sat/D6 into Sun/D7, conditional severe potential may develop along the northern Gulf Coast, depending on the evolution of a tropical disturbance currently over the southwest Gulf of America. NHC currently denotes a 50% chance of cyclone development. A weak midlevel trough is also forecast to develop over TX, and move across the Gulf Coast states during the same time. The combination of increasing moisture and shear could result in an area of tornado potential. Any such event is highly conditional on cyclone formation, and potential will continue to be monitored.
From Sun/D7 and beyond, models suggest a western trough may develop, though model spread is high.
..Jewell.. 10/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, October 5
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, October 6
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Wednesday, October 7
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Thursday, October 8
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, October 9
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, October 10
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, October 11
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, October 12
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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