Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, September 9
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central Plains to the Ohio Valley today.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 092018
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 PM CDT Wed Sep 09 2026
Valid 092000Z - 101200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM CENTRAL OHIO INTO NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN NEW YORK
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central Plains to the Ohio Valley today.
20Z Update
Minor changes were made to the general thunderstorms forecast based on observations and recent guidance. Severe probabilities remain unchanged, however. See the previous discussion for additional information.
..Wendt.. 09/09/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Wed Sep 09 2026/
OH/PA/NY
A fast-moving shortwave trough now over WI/IL will track eastward today across the Great Lakes region. At the surface, the primary baroclinic currently extends from Lake Erie into OH/IN and will move eastward and be the focus for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Strong heating and dewpoints in the 70s across much of OH and western PA will result in moderate CAPE values and steep low-level lapse rates. Sufficient deep-layer shear will promote organized storms with some bowing structures expected, capable of locally damaging wind gusts. This activity will spread into western NY/northwest PA by early evening before weakening.
IN/IL/MO
The storms that form over OH will zipper southwestward along the boundary into a pocket of ample CAPE/moisture over parts of southern IN/IL into southern MO. Winds aloft in this area will be weaker, with less overall organization of storms. Nevertheless, a few storms may occasionally produce damaging wind gusts.
TX/OK/KS
Widely scattered slow-moving afternoon thunderstorms will pose a risk of gusty/damaging winds in a hot/humid surface air mass.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Thursday, September 10
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon across the southern High Plains and portions of the Ozarks and Mid-South.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 091723
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Wed Sep 09 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS…AND OVER PARTS OF THE OZARKS TO MID-SOUTH
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon across the southern High Plains and portions of the Ozarks and Mid-South.
Synopsis
A progressive, positive-tilt trough will move from the Mid MS Valley across the OH Valley, with a surface high building in behind and extending westward into the Central Plains. The associated front will stall from the Ozarks into OK, with generally weak easterly surface winds across this region. This region will harbor upper 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints and support modest destabilization with marginal shear. Later in the day and overnight, temporary shortwave ridging will occur over the Northern Plains as a stronger and broad upper trough develops into the northern Rockies. This will induce southerly low-level winds across the Plains with a nocturnal low-level jet aiding moisture return into NE and SD.
Southern High Plains
Modest mid to high level northwesterlies combined with moist southeast surface winds will result in around 35 kt deep-layer shear, conditionally supporting cellular activity. Storms will develop over northeast NM after 20Z, and will proceed southeastward into the far western TX Panhandle during the evening. Cells may initially produce hail over 1.00” diameter, with possible clustering supporting locally severe gusts.
Ozarks and Mid-South
A band of 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE should develop along the front, which will also be along the southern periphery of the stronger winds aloft with the shortwave trough. Afternoon storms moving along this boundary could organize into a few small clusters, though shear will be minimal. However, strong heating just south of the boundary and steepening of low-level lapse rates may support locally damaging outflow/gusts.
..Jewell.. 09/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Friday, September 11
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest late Friday afternoon into Friday night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 30%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 092020
Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CDT Wed Sep 09 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO MUCH OF WESTERN MINNESOTA…AND INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest late Friday afternoon into Friday night.
Discussion
A leading shortwave trough will move into the Northern Plains on Friday, as an upper low drops south along the Pacific Northwest. A pre-frontal trough will develop into northern MN, extending into eastern SD and central NE by late afternoon. Ahead of this trough, strong heating will occur from NE into SD, with a cooler boundary layer into central MN.
Temperatures aloft will cool with the upper wave, resulting in moderately steep lapse rates aloft. Midlevel wind speeds of 20-40 kt, combined with low-level southerlies (including 40 kt at 850 mb late in the day) will favor a few supercells initially before storms become linear along the advancing cold front.
Forecast soundings indicate large hail will be likely with the initial cellular activity, though shear in the mid to upper levels will not be particularly strong. As such, will not add any sig hatching for hail.
A brief tornado may occur with initial supercells, particularly from eastern SD into western MN where low-level shear will be strongest. Otherwise, damaging winds will be possible through the evening as storms move northeast across MN.
..Jewell.. 09/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Saturday, September 12
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, September 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, September 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, September 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, September 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, September 16 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090727 SPC AC 090727
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Wed Sep 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Sat - Central Plains
A cold front will stall across the central Plains on Saturday. Low-level east/southeasterly flow will maintain rich boundary layer moisture across KS and into eastern CO. Early day convection may be ongoing in the vicinity of the stalled boundary within the low-level warm advection regime. It is uncertain if airmass recovery and renewed thunderstorm development will occur within the unstable warm sector given nebulous large-scale ascent and modest vertical shear. While low severe potential may eventually evolve, probability appears less than 15 percent at this time.
Days 5-6/Sun-Mon – Central Plains to the Great Lakes
An upper trough is forecast to move from the northern Rockies to the Great Lakes through early Day 7/Tuesday. This will bring enhanced southwesterly flow to portions of the northern/central Plains into the Great Lakes, particularly on Monday. With the approach of the trough, lee low development is forecast across the northern/central High Plains on Sunday. Increasing southerly low-level flow will transport moisture northward to NE/SD ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front. This could support some severe risk across parts of the northern/central Plains and Mid-MO Valley vicinity on Sunday. However, large spread exists among forecast guidance with regards to the surface low placement, northward extent of moisture return, and frontal position. As a result, corridors of greater severe potential are uncertain on Sunday.
As the upper trough continues to lift east/northeast through the Great Lakes on Monday, severe potential could develop eastward into parts of the Mid/Upper MS Valley and upper Great Lakes vicinity. Stronger deep-layer flow may become displaced to the north of better instability, and similarly large model spread continues into this time frame. Depending on trends, severe probabilities could eventually be needed for Sunday and/or Monday.
Days 7-8/Tue-Wed
Lower amplitude, quasi-zonal flow is expected to develop by the end of the forecast period as the early-week uppers shortwave trough lifts into eastern Canada and the sub-tropical high begins to rebuild over the southern U.S. This should largely limit severe potential, though abundant moisture will reside from the southern Plains into the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic and daily sporadic strong storms could still occur.
..Leitman.. 09/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, September 13
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, September 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, September 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, September 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, September 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, September 16 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090727 SPC AC 090727
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Wed Sep 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Sat - Central Plains
A cold front will stall across the central Plains on Saturday. Low-level east/southeasterly flow will maintain rich boundary layer moisture across KS and into eastern CO. Early day convection may be ongoing in the vicinity of the stalled boundary within the low-level warm advection regime. It is uncertain if airmass recovery and renewed thunderstorm development will occur within the unstable warm sector given nebulous large-scale ascent and modest vertical shear. While low severe potential may eventually evolve, probability appears less than 15 percent at this time.
Days 5-6/Sun-Mon – Central Plains to the Great Lakes
An upper trough is forecast to move from the northern Rockies to the Great Lakes through early Day 7/Tuesday. This will bring enhanced southwesterly flow to portions of the northern/central Plains into the Great Lakes, particularly on Monday. With the approach of the trough, lee low development is forecast across the northern/central High Plains on Sunday. Increasing southerly low-level flow will transport moisture northward to NE/SD ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front. This could support some severe risk across parts of the northern/central Plains and Mid-MO Valley vicinity on Sunday. However, large spread exists among forecast guidance with regards to the surface low placement, northward extent of moisture return, and frontal position. As a result, corridors of greater severe potential are uncertain on Sunday.
As the upper trough continues to lift east/northeast through the Great Lakes on Monday, severe potential could develop eastward into parts of the Mid/Upper MS Valley and upper Great Lakes vicinity. Stronger deep-layer flow may become displaced to the north of better instability, and similarly large model spread continues into this time frame. Depending on trends, severe probabilities could eventually be needed for Sunday and/or Monday.
Days 7-8/Tue-Wed
Lower amplitude, quasi-zonal flow is expected to develop by the end of the forecast period as the early-week uppers shortwave trough lifts into eastern Canada and the sub-tropical high begins to rebuild over the southern U.S. This should largely limit severe potential, though abundant moisture will reside from the southern Plains into the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic and daily sporadic strong storms could still occur.
..Leitman.. 09/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, September 14
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, September 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, September 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, September 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, September 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, September 16 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090727 SPC AC 090727
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Wed Sep 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Sat - Central Plains
A cold front will stall across the central Plains on Saturday. Low-level east/southeasterly flow will maintain rich boundary layer moisture across KS and into eastern CO. Early day convection may be ongoing in the vicinity of the stalled boundary within the low-level warm advection regime. It is uncertain if airmass recovery and renewed thunderstorm development will occur within the unstable warm sector given nebulous large-scale ascent and modest vertical shear. While low severe potential may eventually evolve, probability appears less than 15 percent at this time.
Days 5-6/Sun-Mon – Central Plains to the Great Lakes
An upper trough is forecast to move from the northern Rockies to the Great Lakes through early Day 7/Tuesday. This will bring enhanced southwesterly flow to portions of the northern/central Plains into the Great Lakes, particularly on Monday. With the approach of the trough, lee low development is forecast across the northern/central High Plains on Sunday. Increasing southerly low-level flow will transport moisture northward to NE/SD ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front. This could support some severe risk across parts of the northern/central Plains and Mid-MO Valley vicinity on Sunday. However, large spread exists among forecast guidance with regards to the surface low placement, northward extent of moisture return, and frontal position. As a result, corridors of greater severe potential are uncertain on Sunday.
As the upper trough continues to lift east/northeast through the Great Lakes on Monday, severe potential could develop eastward into parts of the Mid/Upper MS Valley and upper Great Lakes vicinity. Stronger deep-layer flow may become displaced to the north of better instability, and similarly large model spread continues into this time frame. Depending on trends, severe probabilities could eventually be needed for Sunday and/or Monday.
Days 7-8/Tue-Wed
Lower amplitude, quasi-zonal flow is expected to develop by the end of the forecast period as the early-week uppers shortwave trough lifts into eastern Canada and the sub-tropical high begins to rebuild over the southern U.S. This should largely limit severe potential, though abundant moisture will reside from the southern Plains into the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic and daily sporadic strong storms could still occur.
..Leitman.. 09/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, September 15
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, September 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, September 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, September 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, September 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, September 16 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090727 SPC AC 090727
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Wed Sep 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Sat - Central Plains
A cold front will stall across the central Plains on Saturday. Low-level east/southeasterly flow will maintain rich boundary layer moisture across KS and into eastern CO. Early day convection may be ongoing in the vicinity of the stalled boundary within the low-level warm advection regime. It is uncertain if airmass recovery and renewed thunderstorm development will occur within the unstable warm sector given nebulous large-scale ascent and modest vertical shear. While low severe potential may eventually evolve, probability appears less than 15 percent at this time.
Days 5-6/Sun-Mon – Central Plains to the Great Lakes
An upper trough is forecast to move from the northern Rockies to the Great Lakes through early Day 7/Tuesday. This will bring enhanced southwesterly flow to portions of the northern/central Plains into the Great Lakes, particularly on Monday. With the approach of the trough, lee low development is forecast across the northern/central High Plains on Sunday. Increasing southerly low-level flow will transport moisture northward to NE/SD ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front. This could support some severe risk across parts of the northern/central Plains and Mid-MO Valley vicinity on Sunday. However, large spread exists among forecast guidance with regards to the surface low placement, northward extent of moisture return, and frontal position. As a result, corridors of greater severe potential are uncertain on Sunday.
As the upper trough continues to lift east/northeast through the Great Lakes on Monday, severe potential could develop eastward into parts of the Mid/Upper MS Valley and upper Great Lakes vicinity. Stronger deep-layer flow may become displaced to the north of better instability, and similarly large model spread continues into this time frame. Depending on trends, severe probabilities could eventually be needed for Sunday and/or Monday.
Days 7-8/Tue-Wed
Lower amplitude, quasi-zonal flow is expected to develop by the end of the forecast period as the early-week uppers shortwave trough lifts into eastern Canada and the sub-tropical high begins to rebuild over the southern U.S. This should largely limit severe potential, though abundant moisture will reside from the southern Plains into the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic and daily sporadic strong storms could still occur.
..Leitman.. 09/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, September 16
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, September 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, September 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, September 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, September 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, September 16 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090727 SPC AC 090727
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Wed Sep 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Sat - Central Plains
A cold front will stall across the central Plains on Saturday. Low-level east/southeasterly flow will maintain rich boundary layer moisture across KS and into eastern CO. Early day convection may be ongoing in the vicinity of the stalled boundary within the low-level warm advection regime. It is uncertain if airmass recovery and renewed thunderstorm development will occur within the unstable warm sector given nebulous large-scale ascent and modest vertical shear. While low severe potential may eventually evolve, probability appears less than 15 percent at this time.
Days 5-6/Sun-Mon – Central Plains to the Great Lakes
An upper trough is forecast to move from the northern Rockies to the Great Lakes through early Day 7/Tuesday. This will bring enhanced southwesterly flow to portions of the northern/central Plains into the Great Lakes, particularly on Monday. With the approach of the trough, lee low development is forecast across the northern/central High Plains on Sunday. Increasing southerly low-level flow will transport moisture northward to NE/SD ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front. This could support some severe risk across parts of the northern/central Plains and Mid-MO Valley vicinity on Sunday. However, large spread exists among forecast guidance with regards to the surface low placement, northward extent of moisture return, and frontal position. As a result, corridors of greater severe potential are uncertain on Sunday.
As the upper trough continues to lift east/northeast through the Great Lakes on Monday, severe potential could develop eastward into parts of the Mid/Upper MS Valley and upper Great Lakes vicinity. Stronger deep-layer flow may become displaced to the north of better instability, and similarly large model spread continues into this time frame. Depending on trends, severe probabilities could eventually be needed for Sunday and/or Monday.
Days 7-8/Tue-Wed
Lower amplitude, quasi-zonal flow is expected to develop by the end of the forecast period as the early-week uppers shortwave trough lifts into eastern Canada and the sub-tropical high begins to rebuild over the southern U.S. This should largely limit severe potential, though abundant moisture will reside from the southern Plains into the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic and daily sporadic strong storms could still occur.
..Leitman.. 09/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, September 9
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 15%
- Thursday, September 10
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Friday, September 11
- ANY SEVERE: 30%
- Saturday, September 12
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, September 13
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, September 14
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, September 15
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, September 16
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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