Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Thursday, April 9

Outlook Summary

Areas of hail and strong wind gusts are expected this afternoon and evening in parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley westward into Kansas. Locally very large hail is possible.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 090557

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI

### SUMMARY

Areas of hail and strong wind gusts are expected this afternoon and evening in parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley westward into Kansas. Locally very large hail is possible.

Synopsis

The upper-level pattern across the US today will consist of a deepening trough across the Western US with enhanced westerly flow extending across the central/northern US within the base of a broader upper-low across portions of Canada. Within the broad area of westerly flow, several disturbances will rotate across the northern Plains into the Great Lakes Region.

At the surface, a warm front will lift northward through the day across the central Plains, extending as far north as southern NE/IA. As a surface high builds to the north across the Dakotas, this boundary will sag southward as a cold front through the late afternoon/evening. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected along this east/west oriented boundary and as well across the dryline further west into the OK/TX Panhandles. The primary threat will be for large to very large hail and damaging wind. A more isolated risk for large hail will extend southward across the dryline into western Kansas/OK/TX Panhandles.

Central Plains

South of the aforementioned boundary across central KS into southeastern NE, low to mid-50s dew points in combination with strong daytime heating will yield moderate MLCAPE values around 1000-1500 J/kg. Thunderstorm activity should develop along the warm front around 18z and increase with the incoming upper-level wave and cooling aloft. Forecast soundings along and south of the boundary in Kansas depict steep low to mid-level lapse rates (7-8 C/km) and deep layer shear around 40 kts, supportive of supercells capable of large to very large hail(some 2+ inches in diameter)and severe wind. The Slight was extended southward into central Kansas to account for potential for development into this region and continuation of the large to very large hail threat.

With west to northwest winds aloft, all these storms may eventually merge into the evening, propagating southeastward across much of eastern KS into northwest MO. The warm boundary layer, combined with cold downdraft material, will likely support scattered damaging gusts.

Northern California/Oregon Coasts

As the upper-level low approaches the West Coast, forcing for ascent will overspread portions of northern California into southern Oregon with scattered thunderstorm development expected by the late morning/afternoon. Sufficient moisture and MLCAPE will extend inland overlapping deep layer shear 20-25 kts and steep low to mid-level lapse rates to support potential for strong to severe wind gusts. As such, a 5% wind area was introduced with this outlook to cover this potential. Some instances of small hail will also be possible, owing to steep lapse rates and cooling temperatures aloft.

..Thornton/Chalmers.. 04/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Friday, April 10

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible on Friday over parts of the southern and central Plains eastward into the Ozarks.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 090551

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible on Friday over parts of the southern and central Plains eastward into the Ozarks.

Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks

An upper-level ridge will move through the Rockies on Friday, as mid-level flow remains westerly across much of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front will advance slowly southward to near the Kansas and Oklahoma state-line by midday. Warming surface temperatures and increasing low-level convergence near the front will result in isolated to scattered thunderstorm development in the afternoon and evening. Surface dewpoints in the lower 60s F will contribute to a pocket of instability near the front in the afternoon, with MLCAPE forecast to peak around 1500 J/kg. In addition, deep-layer shear is forecast to be around 30 knots near the front with low to mid-level lapse rates in the 7 to 8 C/km range. This environment should be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. Severe wind gusts and hail will be the primary threats.

..Broyles.. 04/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Saturday, April 11

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible on Saturday across parts of west Texas and far eastern New Mexico. A marginal severe threat will also be possible across parts of the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 090714

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible on Saturday across parts of west Texas and far eastern New Mexico. A marginal severe threat will also be possible across parts of the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley.

Southern High Plains

Mid-level southwesterly flow will gradually strengthen across the south-central U.S. on Saturday, as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves northeastward into the southern High Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place over much of southern and central Plains, with surface dewpoints from the mid 50s to mid 60s F. A surface trough over far eastern New Mexico will be a focus for convective development as surface temperatures warm during the day. Large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave trough will support scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening over much of the southern High Plains. MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 1200 to 1500 J/kg range over west Texas, where 0-3 km lapse rates should reach 7.5 and 8 C/km in the late afternoon. This will be favorable for severe wind gusts. In addition, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be between 30 and 40 knots over much of the southern High Plains suggesting that supercells with large hail will be possible. Severe threat coverage may peak in the early to mid evening, especially if an MCS can organize over parts of west-central Texas.

Central Plains/Mid Missouri Valley

An upper-level ridge will move eastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley Saturday afternoon, as southwesterly mid-level flow becomes established over much of the north-central U.S. At the surface, a trough will deepen during the day across the central High Plains, with moisture advection continuing over the central Plains and Missouri Valley. Weak instability is expected to develop over much of this airmass by afternoon. Although large-scale ascent will remain limited, isolated thunderstorms will be possible in areas where low-level convergence and surface heating become maximized. Model forecasts suggest that enough deep-layer shear will be in place for a marginal severe threat, with hail and isolated severe gusts possible.

..Broyles.. 04/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Sunday, April 12

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090858 SPC AC 090858

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Sunday/Day 4 to Tuesday/Day 6

On Sunday, southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the nation. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located from the southern Plains north-northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Much of this corridor is forecast to become moderately unstable by afternoon. The greatest potential for severe storms will likely be in the southern and central Plains, where some solutions have a subtle shortwave trough. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will be favorable for supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts.

Mid-level flow is forecast to gradually strengthen across the central U.S. on Monday. In response moisture advection will continue in the Great Plains. By Monday afternoon, moderate instability should be in place from north Texas northward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across this airmass Monday afternoon and evening. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will again be favorable for severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. A tornado threat may also develop.

On Tuesday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the southern Rockies, as an associated mid-level jet streak ejects northeastward across the southern High Plains. A moderately unstable airmass will likely be in place by afternoon from the southern Plains northeastward into mid to upper Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes. Strong deep-layer shear is forecast over the southern and central Plains, where a substantial severe threat will be possible. Supercells with large hail, wind damage and tornadoes are expected Tuesday afternoon and evening. An upgrade will be possible across parts of the threat area, once confidence increases on the timing of the ejecting trough.

Wednesday/Day 7 and Thursday/Day 8

The upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. on Wednesday, as a cold front advances southeastward through the Great Plains and Upper Midwest. Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of much of the front. Thunderstorms that form in areas that destabilize sufficiently could have a severe threat. The severe potential will likely continue into Thursday, as the front advances southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. However, model spread concerning the position of the front and timing of the trough increases substantially toward mid week, suggesting a lot of uncertainty exists at this extended range in the period.

..Broyles.. 04/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, April 13

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090858 SPC AC 090858

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Sunday/Day 4 to Tuesday/Day 6

On Sunday, southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the nation. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located from the southern Plains north-northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Much of this corridor is forecast to become moderately unstable by afternoon. The greatest potential for severe storms will likely be in the southern and central Plains, where some solutions have a subtle shortwave trough. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will be favorable for supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts.

Mid-level flow is forecast to gradually strengthen across the central U.S. on Monday. In response moisture advection will continue in the Great Plains. By Monday afternoon, moderate instability should be in place from north Texas northward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across this airmass Monday afternoon and evening. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will again be favorable for severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. A tornado threat may also develop.

On Tuesday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the southern Rockies, as an associated mid-level jet streak ejects northeastward across the southern High Plains. A moderately unstable airmass will likely be in place by afternoon from the southern Plains northeastward into mid to upper Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes. Strong deep-layer shear is forecast over the southern and central Plains, where a substantial severe threat will be possible. Supercells with large hail, wind damage and tornadoes are expected Tuesday afternoon and evening. An upgrade will be possible across parts of the threat area, once confidence increases on the timing of the ejecting trough.

Wednesday/Day 7 and Thursday/Day 8

The upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. on Wednesday, as a cold front advances southeastward through the Great Plains and Upper Midwest. Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of much of the front. Thunderstorms that form in areas that destabilize sufficiently could have a severe threat. The severe potential will likely continue into Thursday, as the front advances southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. However, model spread concerning the position of the front and timing of the trough increases substantially toward mid week, suggesting a lot of uncertainty exists at this extended range in the period.

..Broyles.. 04/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, April 14

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090858 SPC AC 090858

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Sunday/Day 4 to Tuesday/Day 6

On Sunday, southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the nation. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located from the southern Plains north-northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Much of this corridor is forecast to become moderately unstable by afternoon. The greatest potential for severe storms will likely be in the southern and central Plains, where some solutions have a subtle shortwave trough. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will be favorable for supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts.

Mid-level flow is forecast to gradually strengthen across the central U.S. on Monday. In response moisture advection will continue in the Great Plains. By Monday afternoon, moderate instability should be in place from north Texas northward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across this airmass Monday afternoon and evening. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will again be favorable for severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. A tornado threat may also develop.

On Tuesday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the southern Rockies, as an associated mid-level jet streak ejects northeastward across the southern High Plains. A moderately unstable airmass will likely be in place by afternoon from the southern Plains northeastward into mid to upper Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes. Strong deep-layer shear is forecast over the southern and central Plains, where a substantial severe threat will be possible. Supercells with large hail, wind damage and tornadoes are expected Tuesday afternoon and evening. An upgrade will be possible across parts of the threat area, once confidence increases on the timing of the ejecting trough.

Wednesday/Day 7 and Thursday/Day 8

The upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. on Wednesday, as a cold front advances southeastward through the Great Plains and Upper Midwest. Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of much of the front. Thunderstorms that form in areas that destabilize sufficiently could have a severe threat. The severe potential will likely continue into Thursday, as the front advances southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. However, model spread concerning the position of the front and timing of the trough increases substantially toward mid week, suggesting a lot of uncertainty exists at this extended range in the period.

..Broyles.. 04/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, April 15

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090858 SPC AC 090858

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Sunday/Day 4 to Tuesday/Day 6

On Sunday, southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the nation. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located from the southern Plains north-northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Much of this corridor is forecast to become moderately unstable by afternoon. The greatest potential for severe storms will likely be in the southern and central Plains, where some solutions have a subtle shortwave trough. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will be favorable for supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts.

Mid-level flow is forecast to gradually strengthen across the central U.S. on Monday. In response moisture advection will continue in the Great Plains. By Monday afternoon, moderate instability should be in place from north Texas northward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across this airmass Monday afternoon and evening. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will again be favorable for severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. A tornado threat may also develop.

On Tuesday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the southern Rockies, as an associated mid-level jet streak ejects northeastward across the southern High Plains. A moderately unstable airmass will likely be in place by afternoon from the southern Plains northeastward into mid to upper Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes. Strong deep-layer shear is forecast over the southern and central Plains, where a substantial severe threat will be possible. Supercells with large hail, wind damage and tornadoes are expected Tuesday afternoon and evening. An upgrade will be possible across parts of the threat area, once confidence increases on the timing of the ejecting trough.

Wednesday/Day 7 and Thursday/Day 8

The upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. on Wednesday, as a cold front advances southeastward through the Great Plains and Upper Midwest. Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of much of the front. Thunderstorms that form in areas that destabilize sufficiently could have a severe threat. The severe potential will likely continue into Thursday, as the front advances southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. However, model spread concerning the position of the front and timing of the trough increases substantially toward mid week, suggesting a lot of uncertainty exists at this extended range in the period.

..Broyles.. 04/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Thursday, April 16

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090858 SPC AC 090858

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Sunday/Day 4 to Tuesday/Day 6

On Sunday, southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the nation. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located from the southern Plains north-northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Much of this corridor is forecast to become moderately unstable by afternoon. The greatest potential for severe storms will likely be in the southern and central Plains, where some solutions have a subtle shortwave trough. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will be favorable for supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts.

Mid-level flow is forecast to gradually strengthen across the central U.S. on Monday. In response moisture advection will continue in the Great Plains. By Monday afternoon, moderate instability should be in place from north Texas northward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across this airmass Monday afternoon and evening. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will again be favorable for severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. A tornado threat may also develop.

On Tuesday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the southern Rockies, as an associated mid-level jet streak ejects northeastward across the southern High Plains. A moderately unstable airmass will likely be in place by afternoon from the southern Plains northeastward into mid to upper Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes. Strong deep-layer shear is forecast over the southern and central Plains, where a substantial severe threat will be possible. Supercells with large hail, wind damage and tornadoes are expected Tuesday afternoon and evening. An upgrade will be possible across parts of the threat area, once confidence increases on the timing of the ejecting trough.

Wednesday/Day 7 and Thursday/Day 8

The upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. on Wednesday, as a cold front advances southeastward through the Great Plains and Upper Midwest. Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of much of the front. Thunderstorms that form in areas that destabilize sufficiently could have a severe threat. The severe potential will likely continue into Thursday, as the front advances southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. However, model spread concerning the position of the front and timing of the trough increases substantially toward mid week, suggesting a lot of uncertainty exists at this extended range in the period.

..Broyles.. 04/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Thursday, April 9

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Friday, April 10

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 5%

Saturday, April 11

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Sunday, April 12

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Monday, April 13

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Tuesday, April 14

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Wednesday, April 15

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Thursday, April 16

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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