Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, September 29
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe thunderstorm wind gusts and possibly a tornado or two could occur this afternoon into tonight from southeast Arizona across southern and eastern New Mexico into west Texas.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 291945
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026
Valid 292000Z - 301200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe thunderstorm wind gusts and possibly a tornado or two could occur this afternoon into tonight from southeast Arizona across southern and eastern New Mexico into west Texas.
20z Update
No changes were made to the existing severe probabilities with this update as the forecast remains generally on track. An increase in thunderstorm coverage (likely in the form of a complex/linear storm mode) is expected this afternoon/evening as the remnant core of Polo progresses northeastward into the southern High Plains. As this occurs, isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two may occur, with locally greater potential possible from southeastern New Mexico into West Texas where less prevalent cloud cover has allowed for stronger diurnal heating through mid afternoon. See the discussion below for additional details.
..Chalmers/Thornton.. 09/29/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026/
Synopsis
Fairly complex synoptic evolution is anticipated today through tonight as a remnants of what is currently Hurricane Polo become absorbed within the circulation of the deepening mid-latitude cyclone currently centered over the Lower CO River Valley. In general, the Lower CO River Valley cyclone is forecast to deepen as it gradually shifts eastward. In response, Hurricane Polo is forecast to move quickly northeastward across Sonora and into New Mexico. Polo is forecast to weaken over the mountainous terrain of northern Mexico, but will likely maintain some of its warm-core characteristics through at least tomorrow morning. Additionally, mass response across the southern High Plains will result in increasing low-level moisture advection across the southern Plains while also aiding in surface cyclogenesis across central and eastern NM late tonight/early tomorrow.
Southern Arizona… Recent surface analysis reveals a very moist airmass over southern AZ, with a corridor of mid to upper 60s dewpoints extending from the central southern border into the Phoenix vicinity. Surface analysis also places a weak low over south-central AZ. VAD profiles from IWA and EMX both show fairly long hodographs, supported by 30 to 40 kt of low/mid-level southwesterly flow. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will likely continue throughout the day, with limited diurnal heating and weak tropical lapse rates keeping buoyancy modest. Even so, the strong nature of the wind profiles could support a few at least weak/transient supercells, and potentially more organized convective bands later today, with at least some potential for strong thunderstorm wind gusts.
Southern High Plains
Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase notably this afternoon/evening as the core of Polo progresses into the region. Tropical character of the airmass will keep lapse rates poor while cloud cover also limits heating, limiting the overall buoyancy. Nonetheless, buoyant thermodynamic profiles are still expected to result in updrafts deep enough for lightning production. Additionally, low-level wind profiles are expected to lengthen significantly after 00Z as the remnants of Polo interact with a dynamically strengthening low-level jet. The widespread storm coverage will result in a tendency toward complex or linear storm modes with time, though a few/episodic supercells will also be possible. A brief tornado and/or strong wind gusts could accompany any organized, more persistent storm structures.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Wednesday, September 30
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of mainly severe wind gusts appear possible across portions of the southern Plains Wednesday afternoon into night. A conditional risk for isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps a couple tornadoes exists over parts of Kansas and southern Nebraska Wednesday afternoon into night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 291716
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026
Valid 301200Z - 011200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of mainly severe wind gusts appear possible across portions of the southern Plains Wednesday afternoon into night. A conditional risk for isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps a couple tornadoes exists over parts of Kansas and southern Nebraska Wednesday afternoon into night.
Synopsis
An upper low over the southern Rockies Wednesday morning will progress into the central and southern High Plains by late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Associated mid/upper-level wind maxima will precede the low, overspreading the central and southern High Plains on Wednesday in conjunction with a corridor of modest height falls. At the surface, an area of low pressure is expected to deepen slightly during the day over southeast CO or southwest KS before weakening Wednesday night over western KS. A Pacific front or dryline will extend south from the low into western TX by late afternoon, while a precipitation-reinforced, quasi-stationary boundary is maintained across northern KS into the mid or lower MO Valley.
### Central and Southern Plains
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at 12Z Wednesday over portions of the central and southern High Plains, aided by forcing attendant to a lead mid-level disturbance, and more so by warm advection and moisture transport occurring along a dynamically induced low-level jet (LLJ). A subset of the early-day storms is likely to be maintained through the day within the eastward-migrating warm-conveyor airstream, which will limit air mass destabilization in those areas. To the west and south of that convective regime, a mid-level dry slot coincident with the wind maxima highlighted in the synopsis will overspread a moist boundary layer ahead of the Pacific front/dryline, which will contribute to an axis of moderate instability (i.e., MLCAPE of 1000-1500+ J/kg) by mid to late afternoon.
Latest model guidance indicates a gradual increase in thunderstorm coverage and intensity through the afternoon from portions of western and central OK into west-central and southwest TX as height falls/forcing for ascent overspread the destabilizing air mass. While the strongest deep-layer shear associated with the mid/upper-level wind maxima is expected to lag the warm sector to the west, up to 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear is forecast across the instability axis. Vector orientation may largely parallel the surface front, which would favor a quick evolution of an incipient, semi-discrete storm mode to that of a line, as suggested by a number of the 12Z CAMs. Generally poor mid-level lapse rates will tend to limit large-hail production with severe wind gusts being the primary hazard Wednesday afternoon into night.
Farther north across KS into southern NE, a secondary severe weather threat may materialize Wednesday afternoon into night from the vicinity of the surface triple point over western KS northeast along the quasi-stationary front in northern KS and far southern NE. The degree of air mass destabilization remains uncertain due to the potential for areas of clouds and precipitation to linger through the day. However, should sufficient instability develop to support surface-based storms, backed surface winds and the presence of the LLJ in the area will yield sufficient low-level shear for some supercell tornado and/or locally damaging wind threat.
..Mead.. 09/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Thursday, October 1
Outlook Summary
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon and evening across parts of the southern Plains.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 291929
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon and evening across parts of the southern Plains.
Synopsis
An upper low over the southern High Plains Thursday morning is expected to transition to a weakening trough extending from the mid/lower MO Valley into the southern Plains by Thursday night. During that break-down process, a series of vorticity maxima and an associated belt of 40-50 kt mid-level flow will spread from the southern Plains into the OH Valley. At the surface, an area of low pressure will likewise weaken over south-central KS or north-central OK ahead of a cold front settling south through the central Plains and upper Midwest. The cold front will gradually overtake a north-south-oriented Pacific front, which is forecast to stall over the southern Plains.
### Southern Plains
Spread exists across 12Z model guidance in the track of the upper low, which will transition to an open wave on Thursday. The ECMWF in particular has trended farther south with the primary vorticity lobe emerging from the opening mid-level wave across OK. That scenario leads to stronger forcing for ascent and vertical shear centered over the Red River Valley, compared to prior model runs. However, the potential for early-day storms leads to uncertainty in the degree of air mass destabilization by afternoon within that region. Confidence in more robust air mass destabilization increases with southward extent, especially from portions of central TX into the lower Rio Grande Valley, where vertical shear will be weaker. Given these considerations, the Marginal-Risk probabilities have been broadened over the Red River Valley to account for the conditional risk for organized severe weather Thursday afternoon and evening. A slight expansion of the Marginal-Risk probabilities was made over the lower Rio Grande Valley to accommodate the potential for a southeast-moving cluster of storms capable of sporadic damaging winds Thursday afternoon and evening.
### Ozark Plateau into the OH Valley
Both vertical shear and forcing for ascent are expected to increase through the day, as highlighted in the synopsis. Considerable shower and thunderstorm activity is anticipated along and ahead of the front, which is expected to limit the degree of air mass destabilization. However, where pockets of stronger heating can occur, a strong to severe storm or two appears possible with the primary hazard being damaging wind gusts. Confidence in where any greater destabilization might occur currently remains too low to include a Marginal-Risk probability contour.
### Central Kansas into northern Oklahoma
As mentioned above, there is model variability in the track of the mid-level wave and, by extension, the location of the surface low. Nonetheless, a strong storm or two could develop Thursday afternoon in the vicinity of the surface triple point, given sufficient air mass destabilization.
..Mead.. 09/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Friday, October 2
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, October 2 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, October 3 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, October 4 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, October 5 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, October 6 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290845 SPC AC 290845
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
Over the weekend, the pattern will consist of a large-scale trough over the northeastern U.S.. Multiple shortwave troughs are forecast to move eastward through the flow. A cold front appears likely to move from the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys southward to near the Gulf Coast. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon ahead of the front. Deep-layer shear is expected to be too weak for a severe threat.
Early next week, mid-level flow is forecast to be west-northwesterly over much of the nation. A relatively cool and dry airmass will be in place over most of the continental U.S. The exception could be along parts of the immediate Gulf Coast, where moisture and instability may be sufficient for thunderstorm development. The severe threat is expected to be minimal.
..Broyles.. 09/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, October 3
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, October 2 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, October 3 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, October 4 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, October 5 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, October 6 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290845 SPC AC 290845
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
Over the weekend, the pattern will consist of a large-scale trough over the northeastern U.S.. Multiple shortwave troughs are forecast to move eastward through the flow. A cold front appears likely to move from the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys southward to near the Gulf Coast. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon ahead of the front. Deep-layer shear is expected to be too weak for a severe threat.
Early next week, mid-level flow is forecast to be west-northwesterly over much of the nation. A relatively cool and dry airmass will be in place over most of the continental U.S. The exception could be along parts of the immediate Gulf Coast, where moisture and instability may be sufficient for thunderstorm development. The severe threat is expected to be minimal.
..Broyles.. 09/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, October 4
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, October 2 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, October 3 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, October 4 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, October 5 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, October 6 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290845 SPC AC 290845
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
Over the weekend, the pattern will consist of a large-scale trough over the northeastern U.S.. Multiple shortwave troughs are forecast to move eastward through the flow. A cold front appears likely to move from the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys southward to near the Gulf Coast. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon ahead of the front. Deep-layer shear is expected to be too weak for a severe threat.
Early next week, mid-level flow is forecast to be west-northwesterly over much of the nation. A relatively cool and dry airmass will be in place over most of the continental U.S. The exception could be along parts of the immediate Gulf Coast, where moisture and instability may be sufficient for thunderstorm development. The severe threat is expected to be minimal.
..Broyles.. 09/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, October 5
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, October 2 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, October 3 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, October 4 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, October 5 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, October 6 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290845 SPC AC 290845
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
Over the weekend, the pattern will consist of a large-scale trough over the northeastern U.S.. Multiple shortwave troughs are forecast to move eastward through the flow. A cold front appears likely to move from the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys southward to near the Gulf Coast. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon ahead of the front. Deep-layer shear is expected to be too weak for a severe threat.
Early next week, mid-level flow is forecast to be west-northwesterly over much of the nation. A relatively cool and dry airmass will be in place over most of the continental U.S. The exception could be along parts of the immediate Gulf Coast, where moisture and instability may be sufficient for thunderstorm development. The severe threat is expected to be minimal.
..Broyles.. 09/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, October 6
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, October 2 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, October 3 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, October 4 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, October 5 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, October 6 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290845 SPC AC 290845
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
Over the weekend, the pattern will consist of a large-scale trough over the northeastern U.S.. Multiple shortwave troughs are forecast to move eastward through the flow. A cold front appears likely to move from the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys southward to near the Gulf Coast. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon ahead of the front. Deep-layer shear is expected to be too weak for a severe threat.
Early next week, mid-level flow is forecast to be west-northwesterly over much of the nation. A relatively cool and dry airmass will be in place over most of the continental U.S. The exception could be along parts of the immediate Gulf Coast, where moisture and instability may be sufficient for thunderstorm development. The severe threat is expected to be minimal.
..Broyles.. 09/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, September 29
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Wednesday, September 30
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Thursday, October 1
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Friday, October 2
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, October 3
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, October 4
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, October 5
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, October 6
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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