Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, January 21
Outlook Summary
Isolated thunderstorms may occur across parts of far east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley today and tonight. Additionally, a few lightning strikes may be possible late tonight across southeast Florida.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 220048
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026
Valid 220100Z - 221200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated thunderstorms may occur across parts of far east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley today and tonight. Additionally, a few lightning strikes may be possible late tonight across southeast Florida.
01Z Update
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the United States this evening and tonight. A few lightning strikes may be possible across a couple different areas.
Far East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley
A mid-level short-wave trough continues to through the larger-scale eastern US trough. Modest low-level warm advection associated with this short-wave trough will continue to support showers and a lightning strike or two across the area tonight.
Southeast Florida
A subtle short-wave trough and associated mid-level speed maximum will move northeast from the Gulf across northern Florida within the subtropical jet. Modest large-scale ascent associated with the right entrance region of this speed max may support showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two very late tonight.
..Marsh.. 01/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Thursday, January 22
Outlook Summary
Aside from the risk for a few weak thunderstorms near southeastern Florida coastal areas, potential for thunderstorm development appears low across the U.S. Thursday through Thursday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 211702
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Aside from the risk for a few weak thunderstorms near southeastern Florida coastal areas, potential for thunderstorm development appears low across the U.S. Thursday through Thursday night.
Discussion
A vigorous short wave trough emanating from the Canadian Arctic latitudes is forecast to dig southeast of the international border, across parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region, and contribute to the maintenance of larger-scale mid-level troughing across the northern U.S. Great Plains through northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard. Beneath an increasingly confluent regime in its wake, models continue to indicate that a rather prominent, cold surface ridge will build southeastward along an axis across the middle/lower Missouri Valley into lower Ohio Valley by late Thursday night.
It appears that a preceding surface frontal zone will stall and perhaps strengthen across the Carolinas through northern portions of the Gulf Coast states into southern Great Plains. Another is expected to slowly weaken across the Florida Peninsula and northern Gulf Basin, as much of the southern tier of the U.S. continues to come under the increasing influence of westerlies emanating from the mid- to subtropical eastern Pacific.
Downstream of fairly sharp building mid-level ridging across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific, models have come in better agreement concerning a digging mid-level trough and embedded low offshore of the southern California/northern Baja Pacific coast. It is becoming more certain that the cyclonic circulation and colder temperatures associated with an elongating mid-level cold core will generally remain offshore of the southern California, before turning inland across northern Baja after 12Z Friday.
Southern California
Models continue to indicate coldest offshore mid-level temperatures at a somewhat modest -22 to -24C around 500 mb. However, based on the latest Rapid Refresh and NAM forecast soundings, weak destabilization supportive of short-lived weak thunderstorm development may not be entirely out of the question near coastal areas, particularly where forcing for ascent is aided by orography near the Transverse and perhaps Peninsular Ranges. Certainty does not yet appear high enough for the minimum 10 percent threshold, but this will continue to be monitored.
Gulf Coast States
Given the general tendency for warming mid-levels, and the lack of both more substantive further low-level moistening off a slowly modifying Gulf boundary layer and mid/upper support for ascent, the risk for thunderstorm activity still appears minimal Thursday through Thursday night. The primary exception still appears near southeastern Florida coastal areas, in response to increasing boundary-layer destabilization and convergence, near developing surface troughing and the remnant surface front, perhaps aided by forcing associated with weak perturbations within the subtropical westerlies.
..Kerr.. 01/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Friday, January 23
Outlook Summary
Widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible Friday through Friday night across parts of central Texas into the southern Great Plains Red River Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 211927
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible Friday through Friday night across parts of central Texas into the southern Great Plains Red River Valley.
Discussion
Models indicate that a confluent mid-level regime will be maintained across and east of the Rockies, downstream of amplified split flow across the central/eastern Pacific into far western North America. Although the center of initially prominent, cold surface ridging may begin to weaken some while slowly shifting east of the Missouri Valley through the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, the leading edge of the Arctic air is forecast to surge southward across the southern Great Plains, through much of central and southwestern Texas by late Friday night.
The front is also forecast to advance further offshore of the southern Mid Atlantic, but slower southward through the eastern Gulf Coast states and lower Mississippi Valley, beneath a broad building mid-level ridge across much of the south central and southeastern U.S., downstream of mid-level troughing digging across the international border into the northern U.S. Rockies/Great Plains and a short wave trough emerging from the southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific.
There remains notable spread concerning the eastward acceleration of the latter perturbation, generally toward Baja, during this period. However, guidance continues to generally indicate increasing low-level moistening within strengthening southerly downstream flow, across and north of the lower Rio Grande Valley and Texas coastal areas.
Southern Great Plains/Red River Valley
Although mid-level lapse rates are not likely to steepen appreciably, forecast soundings suggest that lower/mid-tropospheric thermal and moisture advection may lead to weak destabilization by late Friday into Friday night, mostly above the southward advancing cold air. It appears that this will become increasingly sufficient for widely scattered to scattered convective development capable of producing lightning, perhaps as far north as portions of southern Oklahoma by 12Z Saturday.
..Kerr.. 01/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Saturday, January 24
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, January 24 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, January 25 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, January 26 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, January 27 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, January 28 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210835 SPC AC 210835
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
A large-scale upper trough will shift from the Rockies through the central and eastern CONUS Days 4-6/Sat-Mon. As this occurs, a very cold airmass will overspread much of the country, with a swath of winter precipitation expected to spread from the southern Plains through the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, model guidance varies, but a deepening low is expected to develop over the central Gulf Coast vicinity on Saturday night/early Sunday. The low and trailing cold front will move offshore the Atlantic coast by early Monday. Depending how far north the surface low develops, some thunderstorm potential could increase across parts of the central Gulf Coast and the FL Panhandle on Sunday. However, severe storms appear unlikely. The very cold airmass settling over much of the country during the weekend is likely to persist into early next week, precluding thunderstorm potential through the end of the period.
..Leitman.. 01/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, January 25
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, January 24 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, January 25 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, January 26 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, January 27 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, January 28 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210835 SPC AC 210835
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
A large-scale upper trough will shift from the Rockies through the central and eastern CONUS Days 4-6/Sat-Mon. As this occurs, a very cold airmass will overspread much of the country, with a swath of winter precipitation expected to spread from the southern Plains through the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, model guidance varies, but a deepening low is expected to develop over the central Gulf Coast vicinity on Saturday night/early Sunday. The low and trailing cold front will move offshore the Atlantic coast by early Monday. Depending how far north the surface low develops, some thunderstorm potential could increase across parts of the central Gulf Coast and the FL Panhandle on Sunday. However, severe storms appear unlikely. The very cold airmass settling over much of the country during the weekend is likely to persist into early next week, precluding thunderstorm potential through the end of the period.
..Leitman.. 01/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, January 26
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, January 24 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, January 25 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, January 26 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, January 27 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, January 28 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210835 SPC AC 210835
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
A large-scale upper trough will shift from the Rockies through the central and eastern CONUS Days 4-6/Sat-Mon. As this occurs, a very cold airmass will overspread much of the country, with a swath of winter precipitation expected to spread from the southern Plains through the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, model guidance varies, but a deepening low is expected to develop over the central Gulf Coast vicinity on Saturday night/early Sunday. The low and trailing cold front will move offshore the Atlantic coast by early Monday. Depending how far north the surface low develops, some thunderstorm potential could increase across parts of the central Gulf Coast and the FL Panhandle on Sunday. However, severe storms appear unlikely. The very cold airmass settling over much of the country during the weekend is likely to persist into early next week, precluding thunderstorm potential through the end of the period.
..Leitman.. 01/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, January 27
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, January 24 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, January 25 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, January 26 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, January 27 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, January 28 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210835 SPC AC 210835
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
A large-scale upper trough will shift from the Rockies through the central and eastern CONUS Days 4-6/Sat-Mon. As this occurs, a very cold airmass will overspread much of the country, with a swath of winter precipitation expected to spread from the southern Plains through the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, model guidance varies, but a deepening low is expected to develop over the central Gulf Coast vicinity on Saturday night/early Sunday. The low and trailing cold front will move offshore the Atlantic coast by early Monday. Depending how far north the surface low develops, some thunderstorm potential could increase across parts of the central Gulf Coast and the FL Panhandle on Sunday. However, severe storms appear unlikely. The very cold airmass settling over much of the country during the weekend is likely to persist into early next week, precluding thunderstorm potential through the end of the period.
..Leitman.. 01/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, January 28
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, January 24 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, January 25 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, January 26 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, January 27 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, January 28 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210835 SPC AC 210835
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
A large-scale upper trough will shift from the Rockies through the central and eastern CONUS Days 4-6/Sat-Mon. As this occurs, a very cold airmass will overspread much of the country, with a swath of winter precipitation expected to spread from the southern Plains through the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, model guidance varies, but a deepening low is expected to develop over the central Gulf Coast vicinity on Saturday night/early Sunday. The low and trailing cold front will move offshore the Atlantic coast by early Monday. Depending how far north the surface low develops, some thunderstorm potential could increase across parts of the central Gulf Coast and the FL Panhandle on Sunday. However, severe storms appear unlikely. The very cold airmass settling over much of the country during the weekend is likely to persist into early next week, precluding thunderstorm potential through the end of the period.
..Leitman.. 01/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, January 21
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Thursday, January 22
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Friday, January 23
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Saturday, January 24
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, January 25
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, January 26
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, January 27
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, January 28
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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