Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Friday, May 1

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible today across parts of southeast Texas, and this evening into tonight along the central Gulf Coast.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 011949

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Fri May 01 2026

Valid 012000Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible today across parts of southeast Texas, and this evening into tonight along the central Gulf Coast.

20Z Update

The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Some trimming was done to thunder/severe probabilities in western into southern Texas, with 5 percent hail probabilities added in southern LA, to account for the latest storm trends and near-term guidance consensus.

..Squitieri.. 05/01/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026/

Synopsis

Late morning water-vapor imagery shows a potent mid-level shortwave trough moving east across Far West TX and Chihuahua. This upper feature will move quickly east and weaken while moving into increasingly confluent flow through the base of a larger-scale eastern U.S. trough. As a weak cyclone develops east along a west-east draped front from south TX northeastward to the mouth of the MS River, strengthening low to mid-level flow associated with warm advection will overspread the northern Gulf of America into the FL Panhandle tonight.

Strong to locally severe thunderstorm clusters have episodically developed and moved east across south-central TX this morning immediately downstream of the upper disturbance. Localized hail/wind may accompany the stronger storms through the mid-late afternoon. A shallow post-frontal stable layer near the surface and weak instability lended confidence in removing low tornado probabilities over TX this outlook update. See MCD #632 regarding short-term details.

Farther east, little in the way of destabilization is currently depicted by the latest model guidance to the north of the front, specifically from near Lake Pontchartrain eastward over the near shore waters to the south of Mobile Bay and the western FL Panhandle. North of the boundary, a low risk for large hail will be maintained as a couple of stronger elevated storms intensify later this evening into the overnight and traverse eastward in tandem with increasing large-scale ascent/strengthening flow fields. Near and immediately south of the front, have focused the tornado and wind probabilities this outlook update to the proximity of surface-based inflow parcels potentially being realized by organized storm modes.

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

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Outlook for Saturday, May 2

Outlook Summary

Strong to severe storms are possible across southern Georgia into northern/central Florida Saturday morning into early evening.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 011712

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Fri May 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA…EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA

### SUMMARY

Strong to severe storms are possible across southern Georgia into northern/central Florida Saturday morning into early evening.

Synopsis

A large upper trough will be present across much of the eastern U.S. on Saturday. The mid-level jet will be intensifying through the period, primarily north of a surface cold front. South of the cold front, upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints will be in place.

Southern Georgia into central Florida

Convection will be ongoing early Saturday morning. The intensity of this early activity is not certain, though thunderstorms will be in a highly sheared (55-65 kt effective) environment. An initial warm layer around 700 mb may limit overall intensity before modest cooling aloft occurs mid/late morning. At least filtered heating is expected to occur south of the cold front. MLCAPE by the afternoon of 1000-1500 J/kg is possible. With shear parallel to the cold front, there is potential for the front to undercut some of the convection. However, one or more organizing linear segments/clusters could still occur along/south of the boundary. Wind damage would likely be the primary hazard with this activity. Large hail is still a possibility, but would be somewhat conditional on a discrete storm mode. The tornado threat remains less certain. The low-level jet will be strongest in the morning before lifting north and east through the day. This would mean diurnal destabilization would be out of phase with the strongest low-level wind field. While the overall threat for a tornado or two appears low, there is a narrow zone in North Florida where marginally stronger low-level shear and boundary-layer destabilization may favorably align mid/late morning. Uncertainty in the position of the boundary/low-level thermodynamics is too high for an increase in tornado probabilities.

..Wendt.. 05/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Sunday, May 3

Outlook Summary

A few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of northern/central Missouri and central Illinois on Sunday.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 011925

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Fri May 01 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE MID-MISSOURI AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS

### SUMMARY

A few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of northern/central Missouri and central Illinois on Sunday.

Synopsis

Broad cyclonic flow aloft across much of the central/eastern CONUS will continue on Sunday. Within the broader cyclone, shortwave troughs will rotate into the northern Plains and lower Missouri/mid-Mississippi Valleys. A surface high will continue to shift southeastward allowing some southerly return flow into the southern Plains/Mid-South into parts of Missouri/Illinois. As the northern Plains trough intensifies, a weak surface boundary will move southeastward into the Midwest.

Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys

Moisture return ahead of the weak surface front is not expected to be significant. The initial return flow pattern may allow low 50s F dewpoints to reach parts of Missouri/Illinois. Despite the limited moisture, temperatures aloft will be quite cold (nearing -20 C at 500 mb). At least a narrow zone of 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE appears possible. Storm coverage may remain isolated, but there is reasonable confidence in development given surface convergence and aid from a passing shortwave trough by late afternoon. Where storms can develop, 40-50 kt of effective shear, a well-mixed boundary layer, and the steep mid-level lapse rates would support a risk for large hail and severe wind gusts. The most notable change with this outlook is to shift probabilities southward given the latest guidance trends.

..Wendt.. 05/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Monday, May 4

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010734 SPC AC 010734

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-6/Mon-Wed – Southern Plains…Mid/Lower MS Valley…Southeast

An upper trough will develop southward across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Monday. At the same time, another upper trough will be oriented over southern CA and offshore over the Pacific. In response to modest height falls and increasing westerly flow across the Rockies, a lee low will develop over the central/southern High Plains. Increasing southerly low-level flow will allow modified Gulf moisture to return northward ahead of a dryline across the southern Plains, and to the south of a cold front developing southward across the central Plains and Upper MS Valley. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible within the narrow moist/warm sector ahead of these surface boundaries, particularly the cold front across parts of the MO/Mid-MS Valley, as capping may persist further south across the Southern Plains. Given modest boundary moisture with north and east extent across the Midwest, it is uncertain how robust convection may be and where the most favorable area for severe storms may develop, precluding 15 percent probabilities at this time for Day 4/Mon.

By Day 5/Tue, the jet associated with the eastward advancing Southwest U.S. trough will being to phase with the upper trough over the north-central U.S. This will bring strengthening southwesterly flow to portions of the southern Plains and Mid-South vicinity while southwesterly low-level flow continues to transport Gulf moisture north/northeast ahead of a southeastward-advancing surface cold front. The warm sector will become increasingly narrow toward the Lower Ohio Valley, and any strong to severe thunderstorm potential would likely focus from parts of Texas into Arkansas/far western TN/KY. However, model guidance varies with regard to placement and extent of potential convection ongoing Tuesday morning, which will have implications for severe potential through the rest of the day. Differences in the location of the surface front also add uncertainty, precluding a 15 percent delineation.

Some strong to severe thunderstorm potential could persist into Day 6/Wed across parts of the Lower MS Valley and southeastern U.S. This remains uncertain and will be influenced by convective evolution in the days prior.

Days 7-8/Thu-Fri

The surface cold front is expected to move offshore the East Coast on Day 7/Thu. Thunderstorm potential will continue ahead of the front across the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic, but severe potential is uncertain as destabilization may be limited by widespread rainfall and cloud cover. On Day 8/Fri, most of the CONUS will be stable/dry behind the cold frontal passage. However, guidance suggests a shortwave upper trough will approach the southern Rockies/northern Mexico and surface cyclogenesis will maintain a moist airmass across TX. If this occurs, some severe potential could develop across parts of TX.

..Leitman.. 05/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, May 5

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010734 SPC AC 010734

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-6/Mon-Wed – Southern Plains…Mid/Lower MS Valley…Southeast

An upper trough will develop southward across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Monday. At the same time, another upper trough will be oriented over southern CA and offshore over the Pacific. In response to modest height falls and increasing westerly flow across the Rockies, a lee low will develop over the central/southern High Plains. Increasing southerly low-level flow will allow modified Gulf moisture to return northward ahead of a dryline across the southern Plains, and to the south of a cold front developing southward across the central Plains and Upper MS Valley. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible within the narrow moist/warm sector ahead of these surface boundaries, particularly the cold front across parts of the MO/Mid-MS Valley, as capping may persist further south across the Southern Plains. Given modest boundary moisture with north and east extent across the Midwest, it is uncertain how robust convection may be and where the most favorable area for severe storms may develop, precluding 15 percent probabilities at this time for Day 4/Mon.

By Day 5/Tue, the jet associated with the eastward advancing Southwest U.S. trough will being to phase with the upper trough over the north-central U.S. This will bring strengthening southwesterly flow to portions of the southern Plains and Mid-South vicinity while southwesterly low-level flow continues to transport Gulf moisture north/northeast ahead of a southeastward-advancing surface cold front. The warm sector will become increasingly narrow toward the Lower Ohio Valley, and any strong to severe thunderstorm potential would likely focus from parts of Texas into Arkansas/far western TN/KY. However, model guidance varies with regard to placement and extent of potential convection ongoing Tuesday morning, which will have implications for severe potential through the rest of the day. Differences in the location of the surface front also add uncertainty, precluding a 15 percent delineation.

Some strong to severe thunderstorm potential could persist into Day 6/Wed across parts of the Lower MS Valley and southeastern U.S. This remains uncertain and will be influenced by convective evolution in the days prior.

Days 7-8/Thu-Fri

The surface cold front is expected to move offshore the East Coast on Day 7/Thu. Thunderstorm potential will continue ahead of the front across the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic, but severe potential is uncertain as destabilization may be limited by widespread rainfall and cloud cover. On Day 8/Fri, most of the CONUS will be stable/dry behind the cold frontal passage. However, guidance suggests a shortwave upper trough will approach the southern Rockies/northern Mexico and surface cyclogenesis will maintain a moist airmass across TX. If this occurs, some severe potential could develop across parts of TX.

..Leitman.. 05/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, May 6

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010734 SPC AC 010734

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-6/Mon-Wed – Southern Plains…Mid/Lower MS Valley…Southeast

An upper trough will develop southward across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Monday. At the same time, another upper trough will be oriented over southern CA and offshore over the Pacific. In response to modest height falls and increasing westerly flow across the Rockies, a lee low will develop over the central/southern High Plains. Increasing southerly low-level flow will allow modified Gulf moisture to return northward ahead of a dryline across the southern Plains, and to the south of a cold front developing southward across the central Plains and Upper MS Valley. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible within the narrow moist/warm sector ahead of these surface boundaries, particularly the cold front across parts of the MO/Mid-MS Valley, as capping may persist further south across the Southern Plains. Given modest boundary moisture with north and east extent across the Midwest, it is uncertain how robust convection may be and where the most favorable area for severe storms may develop, precluding 15 percent probabilities at this time for Day 4/Mon.

By Day 5/Tue, the jet associated with the eastward advancing Southwest U.S. trough will being to phase with the upper trough over the north-central U.S. This will bring strengthening southwesterly flow to portions of the southern Plains and Mid-South vicinity while southwesterly low-level flow continues to transport Gulf moisture north/northeast ahead of a southeastward-advancing surface cold front. The warm sector will become increasingly narrow toward the Lower Ohio Valley, and any strong to severe thunderstorm potential would likely focus from parts of Texas into Arkansas/far western TN/KY. However, model guidance varies with regard to placement and extent of potential convection ongoing Tuesday morning, which will have implications for severe potential through the rest of the day. Differences in the location of the surface front also add uncertainty, precluding a 15 percent delineation.

Some strong to severe thunderstorm potential could persist into Day 6/Wed across parts of the Lower MS Valley and southeastern U.S. This remains uncertain and will be influenced by convective evolution in the days prior.

Days 7-8/Thu-Fri

The surface cold front is expected to move offshore the East Coast on Day 7/Thu. Thunderstorm potential will continue ahead of the front across the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic, but severe potential is uncertain as destabilization may be limited by widespread rainfall and cloud cover. On Day 8/Fri, most of the CONUS will be stable/dry behind the cold frontal passage. However, guidance suggests a shortwave upper trough will approach the southern Rockies/northern Mexico and surface cyclogenesis will maintain a moist airmass across TX. If this occurs, some severe potential could develop across parts of TX.

..Leitman.. 05/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Thursday, May 7

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010734 SPC AC 010734

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-6/Mon-Wed – Southern Plains…Mid/Lower MS Valley…Southeast

An upper trough will develop southward across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Monday. At the same time, another upper trough will be oriented over southern CA and offshore over the Pacific. In response to modest height falls and increasing westerly flow across the Rockies, a lee low will develop over the central/southern High Plains. Increasing southerly low-level flow will allow modified Gulf moisture to return northward ahead of a dryline across the southern Plains, and to the south of a cold front developing southward across the central Plains and Upper MS Valley. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible within the narrow moist/warm sector ahead of these surface boundaries, particularly the cold front across parts of the MO/Mid-MS Valley, as capping may persist further south across the Southern Plains. Given modest boundary moisture with north and east extent across the Midwest, it is uncertain how robust convection may be and where the most favorable area for severe storms may develop, precluding 15 percent probabilities at this time for Day 4/Mon.

By Day 5/Tue, the jet associated with the eastward advancing Southwest U.S. trough will being to phase with the upper trough over the north-central U.S. This will bring strengthening southwesterly flow to portions of the southern Plains and Mid-South vicinity while southwesterly low-level flow continues to transport Gulf moisture north/northeast ahead of a southeastward-advancing surface cold front. The warm sector will become increasingly narrow toward the Lower Ohio Valley, and any strong to severe thunderstorm potential would likely focus from parts of Texas into Arkansas/far western TN/KY. However, model guidance varies with regard to placement and extent of potential convection ongoing Tuesday morning, which will have implications for severe potential through the rest of the day. Differences in the location of the surface front also add uncertainty, precluding a 15 percent delineation.

Some strong to severe thunderstorm potential could persist into Day 6/Wed across parts of the Lower MS Valley and southeastern U.S. This remains uncertain and will be influenced by convective evolution in the days prior.

Days 7-8/Thu-Fri

The surface cold front is expected to move offshore the East Coast on Day 7/Thu. Thunderstorm potential will continue ahead of the front across the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic, but severe potential is uncertain as destabilization may be limited by widespread rainfall and cloud cover. On Day 8/Fri, most of the CONUS will be stable/dry behind the cold frontal passage. However, guidance suggests a shortwave upper trough will approach the southern Rockies/northern Mexico and surface cyclogenesis will maintain a moist airmass across TX. If this occurs, some severe potential could develop across parts of TX.

..Leitman.. 05/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Friday, May 8

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010734 SPC AC 010734

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-6/Mon-Wed – Southern Plains…Mid/Lower MS Valley…Southeast

An upper trough will develop southward across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Monday. At the same time, another upper trough will be oriented over southern CA and offshore over the Pacific. In response to modest height falls and increasing westerly flow across the Rockies, a lee low will develop over the central/southern High Plains. Increasing southerly low-level flow will allow modified Gulf moisture to return northward ahead of a dryline across the southern Plains, and to the south of a cold front developing southward across the central Plains and Upper MS Valley. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible within the narrow moist/warm sector ahead of these surface boundaries, particularly the cold front across parts of the MO/Mid-MS Valley, as capping may persist further south across the Southern Plains. Given modest boundary moisture with north and east extent across the Midwest, it is uncertain how robust convection may be and where the most favorable area for severe storms may develop, precluding 15 percent probabilities at this time for Day 4/Mon.

By Day 5/Tue, the jet associated with the eastward advancing Southwest U.S. trough will being to phase with the upper trough over the north-central U.S. This will bring strengthening southwesterly flow to portions of the southern Plains and Mid-South vicinity while southwesterly low-level flow continues to transport Gulf moisture north/northeast ahead of a southeastward-advancing surface cold front. The warm sector will become increasingly narrow toward the Lower Ohio Valley, and any strong to severe thunderstorm potential would likely focus from parts of Texas into Arkansas/far western TN/KY. However, model guidance varies with regard to placement and extent of potential convection ongoing Tuesday morning, which will have implications for severe potential through the rest of the day. Differences in the location of the surface front also add uncertainty, precluding a 15 percent delineation.

Some strong to severe thunderstorm potential could persist into Day 6/Wed across parts of the Lower MS Valley and southeastern U.S. This remains uncertain and will be influenced by convective evolution in the days prior.

Days 7-8/Thu-Fri

The surface cold front is expected to move offshore the East Coast on Day 7/Thu. Thunderstorm potential will continue ahead of the front across the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic, but severe potential is uncertain as destabilization may be limited by widespread rainfall and cloud cover. On Day 8/Fri, most of the CONUS will be stable/dry behind the cold frontal passage. However, guidance suggests a shortwave upper trough will approach the southern Rockies/northern Mexico and surface cyclogenesis will maintain a moist airmass across TX. If this occurs, some severe potential could develop across parts of TX.

..Leitman.. 05/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Friday, May 1

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 5%

Saturday, May 2

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 15%

Sunday, May 3

ANY SEVERE: 5%

Monday, May 4

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Tuesday, May 5

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Wednesday, May 6

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Thursday, May 7

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, May 8

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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