Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Thursday, March 5

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe storms are expected from northwest Texas and the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Large hail, a few tornadoes and damaging winds will all be possible within this corridor.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 050558

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CST Wed Mar 04 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe storms are expected from northwest Texas and the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Large hail, a few tornadoes and damaging winds will all be possible within this corridor.

Synopsis

An upper trough will move across the Great Basin and toward the Rockies, with increasing southwest flow aloft spreading over the Plains. At the surface, low pressure will develop over eastern CO during the day, and will move into KS through Friday morning. A stationary front extending from northwest TX into southern MO will become a warm front as southerly surface winds increase throughout the period. Low 60s F dewpoints will move across OK and into the eastern TX Panhandle during the day, and along I-35 into KS overnight. Moderate instability is expected to develop from western TX into OK and southern KS, with increasing shear profiles late in the day. This will likely lead to a compact area of severe storms, particularly from the TX Panhandle/South Plains into western OK late in the day and into the evening.

TX Panhandle/northwest TX into western OK and southern KS

Moisture and instability will gradually build during the day as the warm front pushes through during the afternoon. There is some concern about the degree of capping, especially across eastern areas. However, it appears heating will be sufficient to instigate a few supercells, developing by late afternoon across the eastern TX Panhandle and perhaps portions of the South Plains or northwest TX. Steep lapse rates aloft along with veering winds with height will clearly support supercell mode initially, with very large hail and tornado potential. These cells, or a developing cluster, will likely continue into the evening across much of western OK and perhaps toward southern KS by late evening. By that time, shear will be quite strong, and may support significant bowing structures.

Northern KS…NE…IA

After dry conditions for much of the day, thunderstorms will develop overnight as low-level theta-e rapidly spreads north due to a 60 kt low-level jet. Forecast soundings indicate substantial elevated CAPE developing after 03Z, north of a warm front. Deep-layer shear within the cloud-bearing layer also appears favorable for sustained cells, and a few storms could produce hail.

Western FL Peninsula

Beneath an upper high and within an easterly low-level flow regime, strong heating will occur, with dewpoints dropping into the mid 60s F. Despite the upper high, midlevel temperatures will be relatively cool. Scattered storms appear probable along the western Peninsula during the afternoon where convergence will be maximized. Locally strong wind gusts will be possible, though severe storms are not currently forecast.

..Jewell/Chalmers.. 03/05/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Friday, March 6

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from late afternoon Friday through Friday night across parts of the central and southern Plains northeastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. The greatest potential for tornadoes, large to very large hail, and damaging winds is across eastern parts of Kansas and Oklahoma into western Missouri.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 050713

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 2 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 AM CST Thu Mar 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY

CORRECTED FOR TEXT

SUMMARY

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from late afternoon Friday through Friday night across parts of the central and southern Plains northeastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. The greatest potential for tornadoes, large to very large hail, and damaging winds is across eastern parts of Kansas and Oklahoma into western Missouri.

Southern and Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley

A strong upper-level system over the Desert Southwest, and an associated jet streak will eject northeastward across the central U.S. on Friday. At the surface, a moist airmass with surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F will spread northward from the southern Plains into the eastern part of the central Plains and into the lower Missouri Valley. As surface temperatures warm on Friday, moderate instability will develop across most of the moist sector. During the day, a cold front will advance southeastward into central Kansas as a dryline sharpens over west-central Oklahoma. To the east of these surface features, convective initiation is expected along a north-to-south corridor from northeast Kansas south-southwestward along the I-35 corridor into south-central Oklahoma. A significant severe weather event appears likely across the southern and central Plains into the lower Missouri Valley Friday afternoon and evening. Additional more isolated storms are expected to form near the Red River southward across north-central Texas into the Texas Hill Country. These storms will move eastward toward the western Ozarks and Ark-La-Tex during the evening.

A 70 to 90 knot mid-level jet will eject northeastward into the central Plains on Friday. The latest forecasts from the ECMWF have the jet coming through west-central Kansas positioned a bit further southeast. This will be a favorable location for a severe weather event across Oklahoma, Kansas and Missouri. NAM forecast soundings from Wichita to Oklahoma City in the late afternoon have 40 to 50 knots of 0-6 km shear with 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 8 C/km. In addition, strong low-level shear is forecast with curved hodographs. This environment will be favorable for supercells with tornadoes, large hail and damaging wind gusts. The more dominant supercells should be capable of producing 2 inch diameter hailstones. Hailstones around 3 inches in diameter will be possible with the most intense supercells. In the early evening, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to increase into the 300 to 450 m2/s2 range, which will support a potential for strong tornadoes. As storm coverage expands in the mid to late evening, a severe line segment is expected to develop and move into the western Ozarks. Tornadoes and severe wind gusts will be possible with rotating cells embedded in the line and with bowing line segments.

Further south into north-central Texas and the Texas Hill Country, a severe threat is expected during the afternoon and evening. Large-scale forcing will be more limited which will keep the storms more widely spaced. Forecast soundings in the late afternoon from Dallas/Worth southward into the Texas Hill Country have MLCAPE generally from 1500 to 2000 J/kg with 0-6km shear around 35 knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be near 7.5 C/km. This should support supercells with potential for large to very large hail and isolated severe wind gusts. The potential for tornadoes should be greatest in north-central Texas, where low-level shear will be stronger.

Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Southwestern Great Lakes

An upper-level trough will eject northeastward across the central U.S. on Friday afternoon and evening. Strong moisture advection will take place ahead of the system from the mid to upper Mississippi Valley into the southwestern Great Lakes. Surface heating during the day will result in weak instability across much of the region with scattered thunderstorms developing. Some of the cells could be associated with an isolated severe threat. However, the greater severe threat is expected to develop in the mid to late evening, as an 70 to 90 knot mid-level jet moves into the region. With this feature, strong large-scale ascent will likely result in multiple organized line segments. The more intense components of these lines should have a potential for severe wind gusts. An isolated tornado threat will also be possible.

..Broyles.. 03/05/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Saturday, March 7

Outlook Summary

Severe storms will be possible on Saturday from the Texas Coastal Plain into western Louisiana, and in the Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes. Wind damage will be the primary threat, except in parts of Texas where isolated large hail could also occur. A marginal severe threat will also be possible across the Southeast and Tennessee Valley.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 050828

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Thu Mar 05 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN AND IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Severe storms will be possible on Saturday from the Texas Coastal Plain into western Louisiana, and in the Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes. Wind damage will be the primary threat, except in parts of Texas where isolated large hail could also occur. A marginal severe threat will also be possible across the Southeast and Tennessee Valley.

Texas Coastal Plain/Western Louisiana

Mid-level west-southwesterly flow will be in place from the south-central U.S. to the Eastern Seaboard on Saturday. At the surface, a cold front will move southeastward into the Texas Coastal Plains and Ark-La-Tex by afternoon. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front will be in the 60s F, contributing to moderate instability by midday. Thunderstorms are expected to form along the front early in the day and steadily increase in coverage. A large complex of storms is forecast to move southeastward across the Texas Coastal Plain and the Sabine River Valley during the afternoon and evening. Model forecasts suggest that 0-6 km shear will generally range from 30 to 35 knots, and that lapse rates will be steep in the low-levels. This should be favorable for a wind-damage threat with intense line segments that form ahead of the front. A few supercells with large hail and wind damage may also develop further southwest into the southern Texas Hill Country, where forecast soundings have stronger deep-layer shear. During the evening, the severe threat should move offshore from the middle and upper Texas into the Gulf.

Ohio and Tennessee Valleys/Southern and Central Appalachians

At mid-levels on Saturday, a shortwave trough will move eastward across the north-central U.S., as an associated jet streak translates through the Great Lakes. At the surface, a front will advance eastward across the mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will range from the 60s F in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, to the 50s F in the southern and central Appalachians. Weak instability is forecast to develop in most areas ahead of the front by afternoon. Forecast soundings in the upper Ohio Valley show very strong wind fields, with 30 to 40 knots of southwesterly flow just above the surface. This will contribute to a wind-damage threat with short line segments that form ahead of the front in the afternoon. The greatest wind-damage threat will likely be in the late afternoon as a low-level jet consolidates and strengthens across the upper Ohio Valley.

..Broyles.. 03/05/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Sunday, March 8

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040956 SPC AC 040956

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Wed Mar 04 2026

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

DISCUSSION

Saturday/Day 4 and Sunday/Day 5

On Saturday at mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the north-central U.S., as flow remains southwesterly from the southern Plains to the Eastern Seaboard. A cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the southern Plains, Ozarks, mid Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are forecast to be mostly in the 60s F with pockets of moderate instability developing in the afternoon. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop and move southeastward into the moist airmass. Although an isolated severe threat will be likely in some areas, uncertainty is considerable concerning the area with the greatest severe threat. The current thinking is that the severe threat will be concentrated in two areas, with one being from south-central Texas northeastward into northern Louisiana, and a second being located in the Ohio Valley. A 15 percent area may need to be added in either of these two areas in later outlooks.

On Sunday, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast along the western Gulf Coast. Isolated storms associated with a marginal severe threat could develop in the afternoon. Large-scale ascent will be limited which should keep any severe potential localized.

Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/Day 8

West-southwesterly mid-level flow is forecast to continue on Monday across much of the central and eastern U.S. Low-level moisture return is forecast to take place over the southern and central Plains, where the models suggest moderate instability will be possible by afternoon. As a low-level jet strengthens during the afternoon and evening, isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop in areas that heat up sufficiently. A severe threat would be possible. However, spatial uncertainty exists concerning where any severe threat will be the greatest.

On Tuesday, model forecasts are in general agreement, moving an upper-level trough northeastward into the southern High Plains. An associated mid-level jet is forecast to eject northeastward ahead of the system. Model forecasts suggest that the airmass ahead of the trough will become moderately unstable by Tuesday afternoon. This combined with strong large-scale ascent should support scattered severe storms in the afternoon and evening. The favored severe threat area is expected from parts of the southern and central Plains eastward into the Ozarks.

On Wednesday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move across the south-central U.S., as a cold front advances eastward into the Southeast. A severe threat may again develop Wednesday afternoon as the airmass ahead of the front becomes unstable. However, there is considerable model spread concerning the timing of features at this extended range.

..Broyles.. 03/04/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, March 9

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040956 SPC AC 040956

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Wed Mar 04 2026

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

DISCUSSION

Saturday/Day 4 and Sunday/Day 5

On Saturday at mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the north-central U.S., as flow remains southwesterly from the southern Plains to the Eastern Seaboard. A cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the southern Plains, Ozarks, mid Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are forecast to be mostly in the 60s F with pockets of moderate instability developing in the afternoon. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop and move southeastward into the moist airmass. Although an isolated severe threat will be likely in some areas, uncertainty is considerable concerning the area with the greatest severe threat. The current thinking is that the severe threat will be concentrated in two areas, with one being from south-central Texas northeastward into northern Louisiana, and a second being located in the Ohio Valley. A 15 percent area may need to be added in either of these two areas in later outlooks.

On Sunday, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast along the western Gulf Coast. Isolated storms associated with a marginal severe threat could develop in the afternoon. Large-scale ascent will be limited which should keep any severe potential localized.

Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/Day 8

West-southwesterly mid-level flow is forecast to continue on Monday across much of the central and eastern U.S. Low-level moisture return is forecast to take place over the southern and central Plains, where the models suggest moderate instability will be possible by afternoon. As a low-level jet strengthens during the afternoon and evening, isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop in areas that heat up sufficiently. A severe threat would be possible. However, spatial uncertainty exists concerning where any severe threat will be the greatest.

On Tuesday, model forecasts are in general agreement, moving an upper-level trough northeastward into the southern High Plains. An associated mid-level jet is forecast to eject northeastward ahead of the system. Model forecasts suggest that the airmass ahead of the trough will become moderately unstable by Tuesday afternoon. This combined with strong large-scale ascent should support scattered severe storms in the afternoon and evening. The favored severe threat area is expected from parts of the southern and central Plains eastward into the Ozarks.

On Wednesday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move across the south-central U.S., as a cold front advances eastward into the Southeast. A severe threat may again develop Wednesday afternoon as the airmass ahead of the front becomes unstable. However, there is considerable model spread concerning the timing of features at this extended range.

..Broyles.. 03/04/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, March 10

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040956 SPC AC 040956

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Wed Mar 04 2026

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

DISCUSSION

Saturday/Day 4 and Sunday/Day 5

On Saturday at mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the north-central U.S., as flow remains southwesterly from the southern Plains to the Eastern Seaboard. A cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the southern Plains, Ozarks, mid Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are forecast to be mostly in the 60s F with pockets of moderate instability developing in the afternoon. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop and move southeastward into the moist airmass. Although an isolated severe threat will be likely in some areas, uncertainty is considerable concerning the area with the greatest severe threat. The current thinking is that the severe threat will be concentrated in two areas, with one being from south-central Texas northeastward into northern Louisiana, and a second being located in the Ohio Valley. A 15 percent area may need to be added in either of these two areas in later outlooks.

On Sunday, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast along the western Gulf Coast. Isolated storms associated with a marginal severe threat could develop in the afternoon. Large-scale ascent will be limited which should keep any severe potential localized.

Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/Day 8

West-southwesterly mid-level flow is forecast to continue on Monday across much of the central and eastern U.S. Low-level moisture return is forecast to take place over the southern and central Plains, where the models suggest moderate instability will be possible by afternoon. As a low-level jet strengthens during the afternoon and evening, isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop in areas that heat up sufficiently. A severe threat would be possible. However, spatial uncertainty exists concerning where any severe threat will be the greatest.

On Tuesday, model forecasts are in general agreement, moving an upper-level trough northeastward into the southern High Plains. An associated mid-level jet is forecast to eject northeastward ahead of the system. Model forecasts suggest that the airmass ahead of the trough will become moderately unstable by Tuesday afternoon. This combined with strong large-scale ascent should support scattered severe storms in the afternoon and evening. The favored severe threat area is expected from parts of the southern and central Plains eastward into the Ozarks.

On Wednesday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move across the south-central U.S., as a cold front advances eastward into the Southeast. A severe threat may again develop Wednesday afternoon as the airmass ahead of the front becomes unstable. However, there is considerable model spread concerning the timing of features at this extended range.

..Broyles.. 03/04/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, March 11

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040956 SPC AC 040956

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Wed Mar 04 2026

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

DISCUSSION

Saturday/Day 4 and Sunday/Day 5

On Saturday at mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the north-central U.S., as flow remains southwesterly from the southern Plains to the Eastern Seaboard. A cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the southern Plains, Ozarks, mid Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are forecast to be mostly in the 60s F with pockets of moderate instability developing in the afternoon. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop and move southeastward into the moist airmass. Although an isolated severe threat will be likely in some areas, uncertainty is considerable concerning the area with the greatest severe threat. The current thinking is that the severe threat will be concentrated in two areas, with one being from south-central Texas northeastward into northern Louisiana, and a second being located in the Ohio Valley. A 15 percent area may need to be added in either of these two areas in later outlooks.

On Sunday, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast along the western Gulf Coast. Isolated storms associated with a marginal severe threat could develop in the afternoon. Large-scale ascent will be limited which should keep any severe potential localized.

Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/Day 8

West-southwesterly mid-level flow is forecast to continue on Monday across much of the central and eastern U.S. Low-level moisture return is forecast to take place over the southern and central Plains, where the models suggest moderate instability will be possible by afternoon. As a low-level jet strengthens during the afternoon and evening, isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop in areas that heat up sufficiently. A severe threat would be possible. However, spatial uncertainty exists concerning where any severe threat will be the greatest.

On Tuesday, model forecasts are in general agreement, moving an upper-level trough northeastward into the southern High Plains. An associated mid-level jet is forecast to eject northeastward ahead of the system. Model forecasts suggest that the airmass ahead of the trough will become moderately unstable by Tuesday afternoon. This combined with strong large-scale ascent should support scattered severe storms in the afternoon and evening. The favored severe threat area is expected from parts of the southern and central Plains eastward into the Ozarks.

On Wednesday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move across the south-central U.S., as a cold front advances eastward into the Southeast. A severe threat may again develop Wednesday afternoon as the airmass ahead of the front becomes unstable. However, there is considerable model spread concerning the timing of features at this extended range.

..Broyles.. 03/04/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Thursday, March 5

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 30%

WIND: 15%

Friday, March 6

TORNADO: 10%

HAIL: 30%

WIND: 30%

Saturday, March 7

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Sunday, March 8

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Monday, March 9

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Tuesday, March 10

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Wednesday, March 11

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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