TORNADO HQ: waiting on update ...

Finding your location risk...

Severe Weather Outlook

show me my personal outlook →

Hayley here - Do you want to see severe weather in your calendar?


* it's like an add-on for your digital calendar NOT a paper calendar

National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Saturday, May 2
Sunday, May 3
Monday, May 4
Tuesday, May 5
Wednesday, May 6
Thursday, May 7
Friday, May 8
Saturday, May 9

Outlook for Saturday, May 2

Outlook Summary

No severe thunderstorms are expected through the rest of the period.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 030025

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0725 PM CDT Sat May 02 2026

Valid 030100Z - 031200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

No severe thunderstorms are expected through the rest of the period.

Synopsis

The Marginal Risk across the Florida Peninsula has been removed with this outlook. Scattered thunderstorms will continue across the region but are expected to remain sub-severe with the loss of daytime heating and thunderstorm activity becoming mainly post-frontal.

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible this evening across portions of the Southwest into Great Basin and across the Northern Rockies. With weakly sheared profiles and marginal instability, no severe storms are forecast.

..Thornton.. 05/03/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Sunday, May 3

Outlook Summary

A few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of northern/central Missouri and central Illinois on Sunday.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind 5%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 021724

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Sat May 02 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS

### SUMMARY

A few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of northern/central Missouri and central Illinois on Sunday.

Synopsis

A broad cyclone across the Midwest/East will remain in the wake of a stronger upper trough departing the East Coast early Sunday. An embedded shortwave trough will move southeastward into the lower Missouri and mid-Missouri Valleys during the afternoon. At the surface, weak moisture return is expected on the western flank of the southeastern surface high. A weak cold front will move into central Missouri/Illinois and serve as a focus for possible convective development.

Northern/central Missouri into central Illinois

Moisture return continues to be the main point of uncertainty in the forecast. The typically moist NAM still suggests dewpoints in the low 50s F is possible. However, current surface/sounding observational data shows poor moisture quality as far south as central Texas. Moisture return is forecast to being overnight Saturday. With only weak low-level flow expected, the pattern simply does not suggest robust moisture return. It seems more probable that moisture that does advance northward will be shallow and have a tendency to mix out during the day. All that said, temperatures aloft will be rather cold (around -20 C at 500 mb). Even upper 40s F dewpoints will result in around 1000 to perhaps 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Modest convergence along the surface front and aid from a shortwave trough may promote isolated storm development by late afternoon/early evening. A potent mid-level jet will increase effective shear to 50-60 kt near the Mississippi River decreasing to near 40 kt in western Missouri. Large hail is possible with the strongest storms. Isolated strong/severe winds are also possible given the well-mixed boundary layer. Storms should weaken relatively quickly after sunset given the drier boundary layer.

Northern California/southwest Oregon

Convection is possible during the afternoon as mid-level temperatures cool in close proximity to the upper low off the coast. Filtered surface heating could allow for a few stronger storms to develop. Small hail and gusty winds are possible. Anvil-level flow will be quite weak which will likely lead to storms that are only strong briefly. The overall severe potential appears low.

..Wendt.. 05/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Monday, May 4

Outlook Summary

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Midwest late Monday afternoon into Monday night.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 021926

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sat May 02 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO CENTRAL OHIO

### SUMMARY

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Midwest late Monday afternoon into Monday night.

Synopsis

A split flow pattern aloft will evolve on Monday. Cyclonic flow will sag southward from the northern U.S. into the Upper Midwest and parts of the Midwest. On the West Coast, an upper low will become more of an open wave and move into the lower Colorado Valley. In response to the intensifying upper low near the Upper Great Lakes, a stronger cold front will move into the Lower Great Lakes, Midwest, and central Plains.

Eastern Kansas into central Ohio

With an additional day of return flow, low-level moisture should be increased from Sunday. Mid/upper 50s F dewpoints are most probable, but low 60s are not out of the question in eastern Kansas/western Missouri. Models differ in the intensity/placement of the subtropical jet stream leading to differences in where the surface cyclone/front will be positioned by late afternoon. Mid-level ascent along the boundary will be weak through most of the day with some increase noted mainly after 00Z. Even so, surface heating will be sufficient to reach convective temperatures in parts of Illinois/Indiana/Ohio. Farther west, mid/upper clouds may be more prevalent and afternoon development, uncertain as it is, will be tied to mesoscale features such as the triple point. During the evening, an intensifying low-level jet should promote greater storm development/coverage along the boundary. Storms would be capable of large hail and locally damaging wind gusts.

..Wendt.. 05/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Tuesday, May 5

Outlook Images

any severe 15%

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Tuesday, May 5 15%
Day 5 Wednesday, May 6 15%
Day 6 Thursday, May 7 predictability too low
Day 7 Friday, May 8 predictability too low
Day 8 Saturday, May 9 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020755 SPC AC 020755

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-5/Tue-Wed – Southeast OK/ArkLaTex to Lower MS/TN Valleys

Southwesterly deep-layer flow will increase from the southern Rockies to the Mid-South on Day 4/Tuesday as a southern stream shortwave trough over the Southwest merges with an upper trough over the Plains/Upper Midwest. At the surface, low pressure will develop over the southern Plains and slowly progress east in AR as a cold front develops southeast across OK/AR and the Lower OH Valley. Ahead of the front, rich Gulf moisture will return northward, and 60s to near 70 F dewpoints are forecast by Tuesday afternoon/evening across southeast OK and the ArkLaTex. Timing of thunderstorm development is a bit uncertain as shortwave ridging may overspread the southern Plains vicinity through afternoon. However, forcing for ascent should increase with the approach of the surface front and as a low-level jet increasing Tuesday evening. Moderate instability and strong vertical shear should support severe thunderstorm activity near the cold front from late afternoon into Tuesday night.

On Day 5/Wednesday, the Plains upper trough will migrate east, extending from the Upper Great Lakes to the Lower MS Valley by early Thursday. The surface cold front will extend from the OH Valley into north/central TX Wednesday morning and slowly progress southeast through the period. Gulf moisture will return north and east across the southern U.S. ahead of the front. While deep-layer flow will largely be parallel to the surface front, moist and unstable airmass ahead of the front should support some risk for severe thunderstorms.

Days 6-8/Thu-Sat

A deepening surface low will develop northward across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Thursday as a surface cold front continues to shift east across much of the eastern U.S. While a moist airmass will be in place across parts of the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic, it is uncertain how much destabilization will occur due to possibly widespread thunderstorm activity and cloud cover (particularly from the Mid-Atlantic northward). Large-scale ascent will become increasingly displaced to the north across the Southeast, and convection may tend to be anafrontal. Trends will be monitored and severe probabilities could become necessary for parts of the eastern U.S. on Thursday in later outlooks.

Severe potential will be limited on Friday as the prior cold frontal passages clears out Gulf moisture and surface high pressure envelops much of the eastern half of the U.S. Weak upper troughing could overspread the Rockies and High Plains by the end of the period, allowing for Gulf moisture return across the Plains and an increase in thunderstorm potential.

..Leitman.. 05/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Wednesday, May 6

Outlook Images

any severe 15%

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Tuesday, May 5 15%
Day 5 Wednesday, May 6 15%
Day 6 Thursday, May 7 predictability too low
Day 7 Friday, May 8 predictability too low
Day 8 Saturday, May 9 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020755 SPC AC 020755

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-5/Tue-Wed – Southeast OK/ArkLaTex to Lower MS/TN Valleys

Southwesterly deep-layer flow will increase from the southern Rockies to the Mid-South on Day 4/Tuesday as a southern stream shortwave trough over the Southwest merges with an upper trough over the Plains/Upper Midwest. At the surface, low pressure will develop over the southern Plains and slowly progress east in AR as a cold front develops southeast across OK/AR and the Lower OH Valley. Ahead of the front, rich Gulf moisture will return northward, and 60s to near 70 F dewpoints are forecast by Tuesday afternoon/evening across southeast OK and the ArkLaTex. Timing of thunderstorm development is a bit uncertain as shortwave ridging may overspread the southern Plains vicinity through afternoon. However, forcing for ascent should increase with the approach of the surface front and as a low-level jet increasing Tuesday evening. Moderate instability and strong vertical shear should support severe thunderstorm activity near the cold front from late afternoon into Tuesday night.

On Day 5/Wednesday, the Plains upper trough will migrate east, extending from the Upper Great Lakes to the Lower MS Valley by early Thursday. The surface cold front will extend from the OH Valley into north/central TX Wednesday morning and slowly progress southeast through the period. Gulf moisture will return north and east across the southern U.S. ahead of the front. While deep-layer flow will largely be parallel to the surface front, moist and unstable airmass ahead of the front should support some risk for severe thunderstorms.

Days 6-8/Thu-Sat

A deepening surface low will develop northward across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Thursday as a surface cold front continues to shift east across much of the eastern U.S. While a moist airmass will be in place across parts of the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic, it is uncertain how much destabilization will occur due to possibly widespread thunderstorm activity and cloud cover (particularly from the Mid-Atlantic northward). Large-scale ascent will become increasingly displaced to the north across the Southeast, and convection may tend to be anafrontal. Trends will be monitored and severe probabilities could become necessary for parts of the eastern U.S. on Thursday in later outlooks.

Severe potential will be limited on Friday as the prior cold frontal passages clears out Gulf moisture and surface high pressure envelops much of the eastern half of the U.S. Weak upper troughing could overspread the Rockies and High Plains by the end of the period, allowing for Gulf moisture return across the Plains and an increase in thunderstorm potential.

..Leitman.. 05/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Thursday, May 7

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Tuesday, May 5 15%
Day 5 Wednesday, May 6 15%
Day 6 Thursday, May 7 predictability too low
Day 7 Friday, May 8 predictability too low
Day 8 Saturday, May 9 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020755 SPC AC 020755

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-5/Tue-Wed – Southeast OK/ArkLaTex to Lower MS/TN Valleys

Southwesterly deep-layer flow will increase from the southern Rockies to the Mid-South on Day 4/Tuesday as a southern stream shortwave trough over the Southwest merges with an upper trough over the Plains/Upper Midwest. At the surface, low pressure will develop over the southern Plains and slowly progress east in AR as a cold front develops southeast across OK/AR and the Lower OH Valley. Ahead of the front, rich Gulf moisture will return northward, and 60s to near 70 F dewpoints are forecast by Tuesday afternoon/evening across southeast OK and the ArkLaTex. Timing of thunderstorm development is a bit uncertain as shortwave ridging may overspread the southern Plains vicinity through afternoon. However, forcing for ascent should increase with the approach of the surface front and as a low-level jet increasing Tuesday evening. Moderate instability and strong vertical shear should support severe thunderstorm activity near the cold front from late afternoon into Tuesday night.

On Day 5/Wednesday, the Plains upper trough will migrate east, extending from the Upper Great Lakes to the Lower MS Valley by early Thursday. The surface cold front will extend from the OH Valley into north/central TX Wednesday morning and slowly progress southeast through the period. Gulf moisture will return north and east across the southern U.S. ahead of the front. While deep-layer flow will largely be parallel to the surface front, moist and unstable airmass ahead of the front should support some risk for severe thunderstorms.

Days 6-8/Thu-Sat

A deepening surface low will develop northward across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Thursday as a surface cold front continues to shift east across much of the eastern U.S. While a moist airmass will be in place across parts of the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic, it is uncertain how much destabilization will occur due to possibly widespread thunderstorm activity and cloud cover (particularly from the Mid-Atlantic northward). Large-scale ascent will become increasingly displaced to the north across the Southeast, and convection may tend to be anafrontal. Trends will be monitored and severe probabilities could become necessary for parts of the eastern U.S. on Thursday in later outlooks.

Severe potential will be limited on Friday as the prior cold frontal passages clears out Gulf moisture and surface high pressure envelops much of the eastern half of the U.S. Weak upper troughing could overspread the Rockies and High Plains by the end of the period, allowing for Gulf moisture return across the Plains and an increase in thunderstorm potential.

..Leitman.. 05/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Friday, May 8

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Tuesday, May 5 15%
Day 5 Wednesday, May 6 15%
Day 6 Thursday, May 7 predictability too low
Day 7 Friday, May 8 predictability too low
Day 8 Saturday, May 9 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020755 SPC AC 020755

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-5/Tue-Wed – Southeast OK/ArkLaTex to Lower MS/TN Valleys

Southwesterly deep-layer flow will increase from the southern Rockies to the Mid-South on Day 4/Tuesday as a southern stream shortwave trough over the Southwest merges with an upper trough over the Plains/Upper Midwest. At the surface, low pressure will develop over the southern Plains and slowly progress east in AR as a cold front develops southeast across OK/AR and the Lower OH Valley. Ahead of the front, rich Gulf moisture will return northward, and 60s to near 70 F dewpoints are forecast by Tuesday afternoon/evening across southeast OK and the ArkLaTex. Timing of thunderstorm development is a bit uncertain as shortwave ridging may overspread the southern Plains vicinity through afternoon. However, forcing for ascent should increase with the approach of the surface front and as a low-level jet increasing Tuesday evening. Moderate instability and strong vertical shear should support severe thunderstorm activity near the cold front from late afternoon into Tuesday night.

On Day 5/Wednesday, the Plains upper trough will migrate east, extending from the Upper Great Lakes to the Lower MS Valley by early Thursday. The surface cold front will extend from the OH Valley into north/central TX Wednesday morning and slowly progress southeast through the period. Gulf moisture will return north and east across the southern U.S. ahead of the front. While deep-layer flow will largely be parallel to the surface front, moist and unstable airmass ahead of the front should support some risk for severe thunderstorms.

Days 6-8/Thu-Sat

A deepening surface low will develop northward across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Thursday as a surface cold front continues to shift east across much of the eastern U.S. While a moist airmass will be in place across parts of the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic, it is uncertain how much destabilization will occur due to possibly widespread thunderstorm activity and cloud cover (particularly from the Mid-Atlantic northward). Large-scale ascent will become increasingly displaced to the north across the Southeast, and convection may tend to be anafrontal. Trends will be monitored and severe probabilities could become necessary for parts of the eastern U.S. on Thursday in later outlooks.

Severe potential will be limited on Friday as the prior cold frontal passages clears out Gulf moisture and surface high pressure envelops much of the eastern half of the U.S. Weak upper troughing could overspread the Rockies and High Plains by the end of the period, allowing for Gulf moisture return across the Plains and an increase in thunderstorm potential.

..Leitman.. 05/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Saturday, May 9

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Tuesday, May 5 15%
Day 5 Wednesday, May 6 15%
Day 6 Thursday, May 7 predictability too low
Day 7 Friday, May 8 predictability too low
Day 8 Saturday, May 9 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020755 SPC AC 020755

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-5/Tue-Wed – Southeast OK/ArkLaTex to Lower MS/TN Valleys

Southwesterly deep-layer flow will increase from the southern Rockies to the Mid-South on Day 4/Tuesday as a southern stream shortwave trough over the Southwest merges with an upper trough over the Plains/Upper Midwest. At the surface, low pressure will develop over the southern Plains and slowly progress east in AR as a cold front develops southeast across OK/AR and the Lower OH Valley. Ahead of the front, rich Gulf moisture will return northward, and 60s to near 70 F dewpoints are forecast by Tuesday afternoon/evening across southeast OK and the ArkLaTex. Timing of thunderstorm development is a bit uncertain as shortwave ridging may overspread the southern Plains vicinity through afternoon. However, forcing for ascent should increase with the approach of the surface front and as a low-level jet increasing Tuesday evening. Moderate instability and strong vertical shear should support severe thunderstorm activity near the cold front from late afternoon into Tuesday night.

On Day 5/Wednesday, the Plains upper trough will migrate east, extending from the Upper Great Lakes to the Lower MS Valley by early Thursday. The surface cold front will extend from the OH Valley into north/central TX Wednesday morning and slowly progress southeast through the period. Gulf moisture will return north and east across the southern U.S. ahead of the front. While deep-layer flow will largely be parallel to the surface front, moist and unstable airmass ahead of the front should support some risk for severe thunderstorms.

Days 6-8/Thu-Sat

A deepening surface low will develop northward across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Thursday as a surface cold front continues to shift east across much of the eastern U.S. While a moist airmass will be in place across parts of the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic, it is uncertain how much destabilization will occur due to possibly widespread thunderstorm activity and cloud cover (particularly from the Mid-Atlantic northward). Large-scale ascent will become increasingly displaced to the north across the Southeast, and convection may tend to be anafrontal. Trends will be monitored and severe probabilities could become necessary for parts of the eastern U.S. on Thursday in later outlooks.

Severe potential will be limited on Friday as the prior cold frontal passages clears out Gulf moisture and surface high pressure envelops much of the eastern half of the U.S. Weak upper troughing could overspread the Rockies and High Plains by the end of the period, allowing for Gulf moisture return across the Plains and an increase in thunderstorm potential.

..Leitman.. 05/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

National Risk Overview

Saturday, May 2
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: low
Sunday, May 3
TORNADO: low
HAIL: 5%
WIND: 5%
Monday, May 4
ANY SEVERE: 5%
Tuesday, May 5
ANY SEVERE: 15%
Wednesday, May 6
ANY SEVERE: 15%
Thursday, May 7
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, May 8
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, May 9
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Your Severe Outlook

Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.

Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.


Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.

 

Severe Weather Outlook Amazon link →


About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.