Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, October 7
Outlook Summary
Severe storms are not expected across the U.S. today.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 070445
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe storms are not expected across the U.S. today.
Synopsis
A mid-level trough will amplify over the Northeast while broad upper ridging overspreads much of the western and central CONUS today. This upper-air pattern will support surface troughing over the Northeast, and encourage surface high pressure to overspread the remainder of the U.S. With the upper trough over the northern Great Lakes/Northeast, and with a subtle impulse over the Four Corners to the central Plains, a few thunderstorms are possible given colder temperatures aloft with these aforementioned features. The best chance for thunderstorms will be along a moistened baroclinic zone ahead of a weak surface low over central FL.
Western FL Peninsula Coastline
Similar to yesterday, a weak surface low will remain in place over the eastern Gulf, amid a moist low-level airmass, characterized by 70s F surface dewpoints and minimal MLCINH. With afternoon heating, thunderstorm development should occur. As in previous days, lapse rates will be poor, with buoyancy driven by the rich low-level moisture, contributing to thin (500-1000 J/kg) MLCAPE profiles. Vertical wind shear will also be modest, though low-level veering may yield some low-level hodograph curvature and associated transient supercell potential. While waterspout potential will exist offshore, it is unclear if tornadic waterspout-producing storms will reach the western FL Peninsula coast, so severe probabilities will be withheld for now. However, severe probabilities may need to be added in later outlooks when meso-beta scale details regarding onshore severe potential become clearer.
..Squitieri/Wendt.. 10/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Thursday, October 8
Outlook Summary
Severe storms are not expected on Thursday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 070428
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 PM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe storms are not expected on Thursday.
Synopsis
An upper low will move east out of James Bay and into Quebec on Thursday, with a broad upper trough from the Great Lakes into the Northeast. A leading midlevel speed max is forecast to move across southern New England during the day, with cold temperatures aloft to the north. This may favor isolated low-topped thunderstorms from the Upper Hudson Valley into Maine as surface heating occurs and a wind shift/trough sweeps across the region. Very small hail cannot be ruled out with 500 mb temperatures near -25 C.
To the south, strong low-level easterlies will develop over the northern Gulf of America as the tropical cyclone strengthens over the central Gulf, possibly into a hurricane by Thursday evening per NHC. This flow regime will maintain 70s F dewpoints over FL, with scattered afternoon thunderstorms possible. Severe storms are not expected due to weak shear and poor lapse rates.
To the west, cool midlevel temperatures to -12 C will exist over the Great Basin, with sparse weak thunderstorms over parts of the Four Corners states during the afternoon.
Elsewhere, a few thunderstorms may occur from eastern NE into IA late in the day and overnight as southwesterly 850 mb winds increase to 30 kt, with sufficient elevated instability present in the warm advection/height rise regime.
..Jewell.. 10/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Friday, October 9
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, October 9 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, October 10 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Sunday, October 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, October 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, October 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060829 SPC AC 060829
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
A surface high will move from the OH Valley into the Northeast on Fri/D4 as an upper trough lifts out of the region and temporary upper ridging occurs. A stationary boundary is still forecast to be along the northern Gulf Coast at this time, and a weak midlevel wave will begin to form over TX. Meanwhile, a potential tropical cyclone may develop toward the central Gulf of America.
Low-level winds will begin to veer to a southeasterly direction along the Gulf Coast late Fri/D4 into Sat/D5, as the potential tropical cyclone evolves. NHC currently gives a high probability of this occurring. As such, an influx of rich moisture will develop out of the south, with a substantial rain shield and embedded thunderstorms likely along the northern Gulf Coast beginning Fri/D4 night. Initially, surface temperatures over land will remain cool due to precipitation and initial modification of the surface ridge air mass.
At this time, it appears Sat/D5 is the most likely time for the more substantial low-level warming to occur, with tropical yet sufficiently unstable profiles. Of particular note is how the developing shortwave trough over TX interacts with the tropical low. Some models indicate 40-45 kt midlevel winds, which would complement the strong low-level shear and favor low-topped supercells with tornado potential. The greatest threat area should be along the coastal counties given expected poor low-level lapse rates farther inland. Initial elevated convection may give way to an east-west zone of supercells as the coastal baroclinic zone moves inland. Some additional threat into Sun/D6 may exist as well.
For the period Mon/D7 into Tue/D8, models are now developing an amplified upper trough over the western CONUS. Low-level moistening will be most prominent later in the period, and could eventually result in a zone of strong to severe storm potential, however, predictability is quite low at this time.
..Jewell.. 10/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, October 10
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, October 9 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, October 10 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Sunday, October 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, October 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, October 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060829 SPC AC 060829
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
A surface high will move from the OH Valley into the Northeast on Fri/D4 as an upper trough lifts out of the region and temporary upper ridging occurs. A stationary boundary is still forecast to be along the northern Gulf Coast at this time, and a weak midlevel wave will begin to form over TX. Meanwhile, a potential tropical cyclone may develop toward the central Gulf of America.
Low-level winds will begin to veer to a southeasterly direction along the Gulf Coast late Fri/D4 into Sat/D5, as the potential tropical cyclone evolves. NHC currently gives a high probability of this occurring. As such, an influx of rich moisture will develop out of the south, with a substantial rain shield and embedded thunderstorms likely along the northern Gulf Coast beginning Fri/D4 night. Initially, surface temperatures over land will remain cool due to precipitation and initial modification of the surface ridge air mass.
At this time, it appears Sat/D5 is the most likely time for the more substantial low-level warming to occur, with tropical yet sufficiently unstable profiles. Of particular note is how the developing shortwave trough over TX interacts with the tropical low. Some models indicate 40-45 kt midlevel winds, which would complement the strong low-level shear and favor low-topped supercells with tornado potential. The greatest threat area should be along the coastal counties given expected poor low-level lapse rates farther inland. Initial elevated convection may give way to an east-west zone of supercells as the coastal baroclinic zone moves inland. Some additional threat into Sun/D6 may exist as well.
For the period Mon/D7 into Tue/D8, models are now developing an amplified upper trough over the western CONUS. Low-level moistening will be most prominent later in the period, and could eventually result in a zone of strong to severe storm potential, however, predictability is quite low at this time.
..Jewell.. 10/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, October 11
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, October 9 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, October 10 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Sunday, October 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, October 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, October 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060829 SPC AC 060829
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
A surface high will move from the OH Valley into the Northeast on Fri/D4 as an upper trough lifts out of the region and temporary upper ridging occurs. A stationary boundary is still forecast to be along the northern Gulf Coast at this time, and a weak midlevel wave will begin to form over TX. Meanwhile, a potential tropical cyclone may develop toward the central Gulf of America.
Low-level winds will begin to veer to a southeasterly direction along the Gulf Coast late Fri/D4 into Sat/D5, as the potential tropical cyclone evolves. NHC currently gives a high probability of this occurring. As such, an influx of rich moisture will develop out of the south, with a substantial rain shield and embedded thunderstorms likely along the northern Gulf Coast beginning Fri/D4 night. Initially, surface temperatures over land will remain cool due to precipitation and initial modification of the surface ridge air mass.
At this time, it appears Sat/D5 is the most likely time for the more substantial low-level warming to occur, with tropical yet sufficiently unstable profiles. Of particular note is how the developing shortwave trough over TX interacts with the tropical low. Some models indicate 40-45 kt midlevel winds, which would complement the strong low-level shear and favor low-topped supercells with tornado potential. The greatest threat area should be along the coastal counties given expected poor low-level lapse rates farther inland. Initial elevated convection may give way to an east-west zone of supercells as the coastal baroclinic zone moves inland. Some additional threat into Sun/D6 may exist as well.
For the period Mon/D7 into Tue/D8, models are now developing an amplified upper trough over the western CONUS. Low-level moistening will be most prominent later in the period, and could eventually result in a zone of strong to severe storm potential, however, predictability is quite low at this time.
..Jewell.. 10/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, October 12
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, October 9 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, October 10 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Sunday, October 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, October 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, October 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060829 SPC AC 060829
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
A surface high will move from the OH Valley into the Northeast on Fri/D4 as an upper trough lifts out of the region and temporary upper ridging occurs. A stationary boundary is still forecast to be along the northern Gulf Coast at this time, and a weak midlevel wave will begin to form over TX. Meanwhile, a potential tropical cyclone may develop toward the central Gulf of America.
Low-level winds will begin to veer to a southeasterly direction along the Gulf Coast late Fri/D4 into Sat/D5, as the potential tropical cyclone evolves. NHC currently gives a high probability of this occurring. As such, an influx of rich moisture will develop out of the south, with a substantial rain shield and embedded thunderstorms likely along the northern Gulf Coast beginning Fri/D4 night. Initially, surface temperatures over land will remain cool due to precipitation and initial modification of the surface ridge air mass.
At this time, it appears Sat/D5 is the most likely time for the more substantial low-level warming to occur, with tropical yet sufficiently unstable profiles. Of particular note is how the developing shortwave trough over TX interacts with the tropical low. Some models indicate 40-45 kt midlevel winds, which would complement the strong low-level shear and favor low-topped supercells with tornado potential. The greatest threat area should be along the coastal counties given expected poor low-level lapse rates farther inland. Initial elevated convection may give way to an east-west zone of supercells as the coastal baroclinic zone moves inland. Some additional threat into Sun/D6 may exist as well.
For the period Mon/D7 into Tue/D8, models are now developing an amplified upper trough over the western CONUS. Low-level moistening will be most prominent later in the period, and could eventually result in a zone of strong to severe storm potential, however, predictability is quite low at this time.
..Jewell.. 10/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, October 13
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, October 9 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, October 10 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Sunday, October 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, October 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, October 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060829 SPC AC 060829
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
A surface high will move from the OH Valley into the Northeast on Fri/D4 as an upper trough lifts out of the region and temporary upper ridging occurs. A stationary boundary is still forecast to be along the northern Gulf Coast at this time, and a weak midlevel wave will begin to form over TX. Meanwhile, a potential tropical cyclone may develop toward the central Gulf of America.
Low-level winds will begin to veer to a southeasterly direction along the Gulf Coast late Fri/D4 into Sat/D5, as the potential tropical cyclone evolves. NHC currently gives a high probability of this occurring. As such, an influx of rich moisture will develop out of the south, with a substantial rain shield and embedded thunderstorms likely along the northern Gulf Coast beginning Fri/D4 night. Initially, surface temperatures over land will remain cool due to precipitation and initial modification of the surface ridge air mass.
At this time, it appears Sat/D5 is the most likely time for the more substantial low-level warming to occur, with tropical yet sufficiently unstable profiles. Of particular note is how the developing shortwave trough over TX interacts with the tropical low. Some models indicate 40-45 kt midlevel winds, which would complement the strong low-level shear and favor low-topped supercells with tornado potential. The greatest threat area should be along the coastal counties given expected poor low-level lapse rates farther inland. Initial elevated convection may give way to an east-west zone of supercells as the coastal baroclinic zone moves inland. Some additional threat into Sun/D6 may exist as well.
For the period Mon/D7 into Tue/D8, models are now developing an amplified upper trough over the western CONUS. Low-level moistening will be most prominent later in the period, and could eventually result in a zone of strong to severe storm potential, however, predictability is quite low at this time.
..Jewell.. 10/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, October 7
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Thursday, October 8
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Friday, October 9
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, October 10
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Sunday, October 11
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, October 12
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, October 13
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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