Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, October 18
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 181940
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026
Valid 182000Z - 191200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
20z Updates
No changes are necessary for the Day 1 update. See previous discussion below.
..Leitman.. 10/18/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026/
Synopsis
Tranquil conditions will exist across much of the contiguous United States through tonight. Extensive surface high pressure influencing much of the central and eastern U.S. will favor offshore flow into the northern Gulf of America and feature a seasonably dry/stable airmass. A few weak thunderstorms are possible over south FL and the Keys to the north of a surface front undergoing frontolysis across the southern Gulf and FL Straits. Farther west, an upper trough migrating northeast across the Four Corners will be associated with isolated showers/thunderstorms across parts of the Southwest.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Monday, October 19
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 181658
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.
Synopsis
An upper low will linger off the East Coast while an upper trough amplifies just off the West Coast. Meanwhile, a leading wave will affect the area from Baja CA into the Four Corners states.
Instability will be minimal over most of the CONUS due to an area of high pressure, with the surface ridge extending from the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest to the Gulf Coast. The exceptions will be near the FL Keys where moist easterly winds will persist, supporting scattered showers and a few thunderstorms, and over AZ and NM, where midlevel moisture will support weak instability. In either case, severe weather is not anticipated due to weak instability.
..Jewell.. 10/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Tuesday, October 20
Outlook Summary
No severe thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 181907
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
No severe thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday.
Synopsis
A large upper trough is forecast to amplify just off the CA coast, with increasing south/southwest winds aloft, as well as cooling aloft near the coast overnight. To the east, minor height rises will occur over the Plains, while an upper low meanders off the Mid Atlantic coast.
At the surface, high pressure over the Upper Great Lakes and Ontario will shift eastward, though the surface ridge will remain entrenched into the Southern Plains. This will maintain stable conditions over the central and eastern states.
General thunderstorm chances will be limited to parts of the southwestern states in relation to the upper trough. Veering winds with height and moderate deep-layer shear will develop over AZ and NM as the upper trough amplified. However, forecast soundings show a subsidence inversion above 500 mb during the day, which will limit storm intensity. Overnight, elevated instability may increase as cooling aloft occurs, with isolated storms still possible. Potential should generally increase into Wednesday/D4 as the upper trough strengthens.
..Jewell.. 10/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Wednesday, October 21
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, October 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, October 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, October 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, October 24 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180755 SPC AC 180755
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the Interior West Wednesday-Friday, before ejecting into the central and northern Plains by the weekend. As the upper trough traverses the Interior West, modest low-level moisture will advect ahead of it across the Desert Southwest to the High Plains late next week into the weekend. Despite strong forcing accompanying the upper trough, deterministic guidance still shows relatively weak buoyancy across the warm sector over the Southwest to the High Plains, with only occasional favorable overlaps with stronger vertical wind shear. Such setups would typically favor strong to isolated severe storms, as also indicated by a consensus of available ML/AI calibrated guidance.
..Squitieri.. 10/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, October 22
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, October 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, October 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, October 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, October 24 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180755 SPC AC 180755
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the Interior West Wednesday-Friday, before ejecting into the central and northern Plains by the weekend. As the upper trough traverses the Interior West, modest low-level moisture will advect ahead of it across the Desert Southwest to the High Plains late next week into the weekend. Despite strong forcing accompanying the upper trough, deterministic guidance still shows relatively weak buoyancy across the warm sector over the Southwest to the High Plains, with only occasional favorable overlaps with stronger vertical wind shear. Such setups would typically favor strong to isolated severe storms, as also indicated by a consensus of available ML/AI calibrated guidance.
..Squitieri.. 10/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, October 23
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, October 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, October 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, October 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, October 24 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180755 SPC AC 180755
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the Interior West Wednesday-Friday, before ejecting into the central and northern Plains by the weekend. As the upper trough traverses the Interior West, modest low-level moisture will advect ahead of it across the Desert Southwest to the High Plains late next week into the weekend. Despite strong forcing accompanying the upper trough, deterministic guidance still shows relatively weak buoyancy across the warm sector over the Southwest to the High Plains, with only occasional favorable overlaps with stronger vertical wind shear. Such setups would typically favor strong to isolated severe storms, as also indicated by a consensus of available ML/AI calibrated guidance.
..Squitieri.. 10/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, October 24
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, October 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, October 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, October 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, October 24 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180755 SPC AC 180755
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the Interior West Wednesday-Friday, before ejecting into the central and northern Plains by the weekend. As the upper trough traverses the Interior West, modest low-level moisture will advect ahead of it across the Desert Southwest to the High Plains late next week into the weekend. Despite strong forcing accompanying the upper trough, deterministic guidance still shows relatively weak buoyancy across the warm sector over the Southwest to the High Plains, with only occasional favorable overlaps with stronger vertical wind shear. Such setups would typically favor strong to isolated severe storms, as also indicated by a consensus of available ML/AI calibrated guidance.
..Squitieri.. 10/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, October 25
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, October 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, October 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, October 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, October 24 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180755 SPC AC 180755
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the Interior West Wednesday-Friday, before ejecting into the central and northern Plains by the weekend. As the upper trough traverses the Interior West, modest low-level moisture will advect ahead of it across the Desert Southwest to the High Plains late next week into the weekend. Despite strong forcing accompanying the upper trough, deterministic guidance still shows relatively weak buoyancy across the warm sector over the Southwest to the High Plains, with only occasional favorable overlaps with stronger vertical wind shear. Such setups would typically favor strong to isolated severe storms, as also indicated by a consensus of available ML/AI calibrated guidance.
..Squitieri.. 10/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, October 18
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Monday, October 19
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, October 20
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Wednesday, October 21
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, October 22
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, October 23
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, October 24
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, October 25
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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