Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, September 16
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible today across parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley and Utah/far northwest Colorado.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 161612
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026
Valid 161630Z - 171200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN UTAH…AND PARTS OF OHIO AND VICINITY.
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible today across parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley and Utah/far northwest Colorado.
OH and Vicinity
Morning visible satellite imagery shows broken cloud cover across much of OH, which will allow pockets of heating/destabilization and lead to moderate CAPE values by mid-afternoon. Widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected, in a regime of relatively weak westerly flow aloft and poor lapse rates. PWAT values approaching 2 inches and rather steep low-level lapse rates could result in precip-loaded downdrafts capable of strong or occasionally damaging winds.
UT
Moisture has increased across UT over the past 24 hours, with dewpoints now in the low-mid 50s and PWAT values over 1 inch. This along with ample heating will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. A band of 35-45 knot southwesterly mid-level winds across this area will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for a few rotating storms capable of hail and gusty winds.
..Hart/Chalmers.. 09/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Thursday, September 17
Outlook Summary
Low-end probabilities of wind damage could be included in later outlook updates in the vicinity of the Appalachians/Ohio Valley, but the overall severe-storm threat still appears too marginal for an outlook area.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 161729
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Low-end probabilities of wind damage could be included in later outlook updates in the vicinity of the Appalachians/Ohio Valley, but the overall severe-storm threat still appears too marginal for an outlook area.
Synopsis
A subtropical high aloft will persist over the southern Plains and lower MS Valley through tomorrow. Around the periphery of the high and in response to a shortwave trough crossing ON/QC, a surface cold front will move slowly southeastward Thursday evening/overnight across the upper OH Valley and northern Mid-Atlantic. This baroclinic zone will focus a few thunderstorm clusters during the forecast period, with minor enhancement of midlevel flow (20+ kt) and steepening of low-level lapse rates to support an isolated/low-end threat for wind damage during the afternoon. Given the relatively poor midlevel lapse rates and offset of somewhat stronger midlevel flow and the larger buoyancy, the threat for severe storms appears low enough to not introduce probabilities in this update. Additional convection is expected farther west along the front into the Midwest/Plains, though much of that convection will likely be tied to low-level warm advection immediately north of the front Thursday night.
Scattered thunderstorms are also probable across the southern/central Rockies within the monsoonal moisture plume between the southern Plains ridge and a closed low over northeast CA, as well as the zone of weak ascent north-northeast of the midlevel low. Very isolated strong outflow gusts will be possible, but the overall threat appears too limited to warrant the addition of an outlook area.
..Thompson.. 09/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Friday, September 18
Outlook Summary
Strong thunderstorms may impact portions of the central Great Plains through southern portions of the middle Missouri Valley late Friday afternoon and evening, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 160730
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN KANSAS…SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA…ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ### WESTERN AND CENTRAL IOWA
### SUMMARY
Strong thunderstorms may impact portions of the central Great Plains through southern portions of the middle Missouri Valley late Friday afternoon and evening, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather.
Discussion
A vigorous short wave trough in the westerlies is forecast to dig across the northern Atlantic Seaboard accompanied by significant surface cyclogenesis near and east of the Canadian Maritimes. In the wake of the cyclone, it appears that a cold front will continue advancing offshore and through the southern Mid Atlantic Seaboard. A trailing low-level baroclinic zone may remain more or less quasi-stationary across the lower Ohio and lower/mid Missouri Valleys into northern high plains, beneath a weaker belt of westerlies in the southern mid-latitudes.
Within this regime, a mid-level trough and embedded low are forecast to slowly progress across the Intermountain West through Rockies vicinity, preceded by a more subtle perturbation crossing the middle Missouri Valley. The latter impulse, and another westward migrating wave across the Florida Peninsula vicinity may contribute to further suppression of persistent mid-level ridging, which may otherwise maintain a considerable influence across a shrinking corridor centered across the southern Great Plains through Tennessee Valley.
Central Great Plains through southern Mid Missouri Valley
Convective potential remains uncertain for Friday through Friday night. However, latest model output suggests that the mid-level perturbation overspreading the middle Missouri Valley will be accompanied by a moderate jet including 30-40 kt southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer overspreading the central Great Plains through upper Mississippi Valley.
As insolation contributes to a more strongly heated and deeply mixed boundary layer along modestly deepening surface troughing coincident with the low-level jet axis, there may be sufficient moisture to support scattered thunderstorm development capable of producing a few strong downbursts across parts of northwestern Kansas through south central Nebraska late Friday afternoon and evening.
Closer to a weak developing frontal wave near the Missouri River, roughly between Omaha and Sioux City, seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content along a warm frontal zone to its south may support a corridor of sizable CAPE and potential for much more vigorous thunderstorm development. Lower/mid-tropospheric inhibition might remain an issue concerning boundary-layer based thunderstorm development, but a late afternoon/early evening supercell and small upscale growing cluster do not appear out of the question, before storms become elevated while spreading southeastward through portions of central Iowa during the evening.
..Kerr.. 09/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Saturday, September 19
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, September 19 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, September 20 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, September 21 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, September 22 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, September 23 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160856 SPC AC 160856
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range model output suggests that modest pre-frontal surface troughing across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity through south central/eastern Kansas, and perhaps the slow moving frontal zone across northeastern Kansas through northern Missouri/southeastern Iowa, may provide focus for scattered strong thunderstorm development late Saturday afternoon into evening. This may be supported by forcing for ascent downstream of weak larger-scale mid-level troughing slowly progressing across the Rockies into Great Plains, with deep boundary-layer mixing along the surface trough and higher boundary-layer moisture content along the frontal zone contributing to thermodynamic profiles potentially conducive to severe weather. However, with the belt of stronger lower/mid-tropospheric flow associated with a preceding impulse tending to weaken and/or shift eastward near or to the south of the Great Lakes region, it still appears that this potential will remain relatively isolated in coverage and/or marginal in nature.
Thereafter, late this weekend through early next week, the spread among model output concerning the mid/upper flow evolution increases. However, even among the differing solutions, there is little readily apparent that indicates an increase in organized severe thunderstorm potential.
..Kerr.. 09/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, September 20
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, September 19 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, September 20 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, September 21 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, September 22 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, September 23 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160856 SPC AC 160856
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range model output suggests that modest pre-frontal surface troughing across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity through south central/eastern Kansas, and perhaps the slow moving frontal zone across northeastern Kansas through northern Missouri/southeastern Iowa, may provide focus for scattered strong thunderstorm development late Saturday afternoon into evening. This may be supported by forcing for ascent downstream of weak larger-scale mid-level troughing slowly progressing across the Rockies into Great Plains, with deep boundary-layer mixing along the surface trough and higher boundary-layer moisture content along the frontal zone contributing to thermodynamic profiles potentially conducive to severe weather. However, with the belt of stronger lower/mid-tropospheric flow associated with a preceding impulse tending to weaken and/or shift eastward near or to the south of the Great Lakes region, it still appears that this potential will remain relatively isolated in coverage and/or marginal in nature.
Thereafter, late this weekend through early next week, the spread among model output concerning the mid/upper flow evolution increases. However, even among the differing solutions, there is little readily apparent that indicates an increase in organized severe thunderstorm potential.
..Kerr.. 09/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, September 21
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, September 19 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, September 20 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, September 21 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, September 22 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, September 23 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160856 SPC AC 160856
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range model output suggests that modest pre-frontal surface troughing across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity through south central/eastern Kansas, and perhaps the slow moving frontal zone across northeastern Kansas through northern Missouri/southeastern Iowa, may provide focus for scattered strong thunderstorm development late Saturday afternoon into evening. This may be supported by forcing for ascent downstream of weak larger-scale mid-level troughing slowly progressing across the Rockies into Great Plains, with deep boundary-layer mixing along the surface trough and higher boundary-layer moisture content along the frontal zone contributing to thermodynamic profiles potentially conducive to severe weather. However, with the belt of stronger lower/mid-tropospheric flow associated with a preceding impulse tending to weaken and/or shift eastward near or to the south of the Great Lakes region, it still appears that this potential will remain relatively isolated in coverage and/or marginal in nature.
Thereafter, late this weekend through early next week, the spread among model output concerning the mid/upper flow evolution increases. However, even among the differing solutions, there is little readily apparent that indicates an increase in organized severe thunderstorm potential.
..Kerr.. 09/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, September 22
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, September 19 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, September 20 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, September 21 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, September 22 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, September 23 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160856 SPC AC 160856
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range model output suggests that modest pre-frontal surface troughing across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity through south central/eastern Kansas, and perhaps the slow moving frontal zone across northeastern Kansas through northern Missouri/southeastern Iowa, may provide focus for scattered strong thunderstorm development late Saturday afternoon into evening. This may be supported by forcing for ascent downstream of weak larger-scale mid-level troughing slowly progressing across the Rockies into Great Plains, with deep boundary-layer mixing along the surface trough and higher boundary-layer moisture content along the frontal zone contributing to thermodynamic profiles potentially conducive to severe weather. However, with the belt of stronger lower/mid-tropospheric flow associated with a preceding impulse tending to weaken and/or shift eastward near or to the south of the Great Lakes region, it still appears that this potential will remain relatively isolated in coverage and/or marginal in nature.
Thereafter, late this weekend through early next week, the spread among model output concerning the mid/upper flow evolution increases. However, even among the differing solutions, there is little readily apparent that indicates an increase in organized severe thunderstorm potential.
..Kerr.. 09/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, September 23
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, September 19 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, September 20 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, September 21 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, September 22 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, September 23 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160856 SPC AC 160856
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range model output suggests that modest pre-frontal surface troughing across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity through south central/eastern Kansas, and perhaps the slow moving frontal zone across northeastern Kansas through northern Missouri/southeastern Iowa, may provide focus for scattered strong thunderstorm development late Saturday afternoon into evening. This may be supported by forcing for ascent downstream of weak larger-scale mid-level troughing slowly progressing across the Rockies into Great Plains, with deep boundary-layer mixing along the surface trough and higher boundary-layer moisture content along the frontal zone contributing to thermodynamic profiles potentially conducive to severe weather. However, with the belt of stronger lower/mid-tropospheric flow associated with a preceding impulse tending to weaken and/or shift eastward near or to the south of the Great Lakes region, it still appears that this potential will remain relatively isolated in coverage and/or marginal in nature.
Thereafter, late this weekend through early next week, the spread among model output concerning the mid/upper flow evolution increases. However, even among the differing solutions, there is little readily apparent that indicates an increase in organized severe thunderstorm potential.
..Kerr.. 09/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, September 16
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Thursday, September 17
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Friday, September 18
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Saturday, September 19
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, September 20
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, September 21
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, September 22
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, September 23
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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