Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, August 21
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail (some 2+ inches) and severe winds may occur over parts of the central Plains into the Midwest this afternoon and evening. Damaging winds will also be possible with scattered to numerous thunderstorms across portions of the Carolinas and northern Gulf Coast states.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 211624
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026
Valid 211630Z - 221200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS…MIDWEST…LOWER MS VALLEY…AND CAROLINAS
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail (some 2+ inches) and severe winds may occur over parts of the central Plains into the Midwest this afternoon and evening. Damaging winds will also be possible with scattered to numerous thunderstorms across portions of the Carolinas and northern Gulf Coast states.
Central Plains into the Midwest
A northwest flow regime will result in a weakly forced and in a limited confidence severe setup across the central Plains. Ongoing widely scattered storm activity may persist and reinvigorate during the afternoon, or new development occurs along residual outflow as the airmass becomes moderately to strongly unstable. Forecast sounding profiles show moist low levels beneath steep 700-500 mb lapse rates amid veering and strengthening flow with height. Large hail (some 2+ inches) would be a threat with any sustained supercells along with severe gusts (60-75 mph). If a small cluster can eventually develop, the severe-wind hazard would likely focus with these potential storms.
A small west to east oriented band of storms is moving south across southern WI to the east of a weak surface low and immediately downstream of an associated mid-level perturbation. While effective bulk shear is forecast to remain fairly modest (around 20-30 kt), a mix of multicells and marginal supercells is expected to develop later this afternoon across parts of southern WI into northern/central IL along and ahead of a weak front. Severe hail may occur with any persistent cells, while the threat for damaging winds should increase as small clusters form and spread east-southeastward through the early evening. While low-level flow is not forecast to become overly strong, sufficient veering with height through low/mid levels should exist to support modest low-level hodograph curvature and some risk for a brief tornado.
Carolinas
Weakened shower/thunderstorm activity associated with an MCV over the western Carolinas will likely dissipate during the early afternoon. However, renewed storm development is forecast in proximity to this upper disturbance, as well as near residual outflow from the earlier convection and a surface cool front draped from the GA/SC Piedmont northeastward into the coastal plain of eastern NC. Strong heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will result in strong instability by mid afternoon. Sufficient deep-layer shear for some organized multicell potential will be greatest near the upper-level feature. Farther southeast near the SC Low Country, weaker flow will result in a pulse thunderstorm mode. Scattered damaging gusts are possible with the stronger thunderstorms through the early evening before nocturnal stability weakens storms and ends the severe threat.
North TX east into northern Gulf Coast states
Antecedent outflow from overnight storm clusters over the lower MS Valley and AL will serve as a focus for storm development this afternoon. Farther west, a more pronounced decaying MCS and associated southward-moving MCV over east-central OK will also focus storm activity across east TX into western LA. The 12 UTC Little Rock raob showed a belt of enhanced flow around the 4-5 km layer (35-40 kt). Other than a localized corridor where moderate northerly flow will overspread a strongly destabilizing boundary layer, slightly weaker northerly to northeasterly flow will encompass this larger region from north TX to Mobile Bay. Nonetheless, the development of very steep 0-3 km lapse rates (9 deg C/km) by early to mid afternoon and high PW (1.75-2.0 inches) will support scattered wind damage with the more intense downdrafts (most likely and concentrated from east TX through southern MS).
Northern Great Basin into the Snake Valley
A mid-level vorticity max rotating northward around the western periphery of the Four Corners upper high, will move into northern NV/UT by late afternoon. Deep inverted-V profiles will develop by mid afternoon with a dry sub-cloud layer featuring large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads. A linear cluster of storms is expected to evolve and move north across the NV/UT/ID vicinity during the late afternoon and early evening. Evaporatively cooled downdrafts will be potentially capable of severe gusts 60-75 mph.
..Smith/Chalmers.. 08/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Saturday, August 22
Outlook Summary
Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of wind gusts and isolated large hail will be possible in the Ohio Valley and Arkansas vicinity. Severe gusts are possible across the central High Plains and northern Idaho into western Montana.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 210548
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHERN IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA…THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS…ARKANSAS AND VICINITY…AND THE OHIO VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of wind gusts and isolated large hail will be possible in the Ohio Valley and Arkansas vicinity. Severe gusts are possible across the central High Plains and northern Idaho into western Montana.
Northern Idaho and western Montana
A strong mid-level shortwave trough will move into the Northwest on Saturday with modest diffluence ahead of it during the day. Strong heating should result in steep lapse rates and weak instability across the region. Storms should develop over the mountains by midday and advance northeast. As 6km flow strengthens to ~40 knots by mid-afternoon, adequate shear should be in place for a few organized storms. The steep lapse rates and inverted-v thermodynamic profile will support severe wind gusts as the primary threat.
Central High Plains
Diurnal, terrain driven thunderstorms will develop by early afternoon and eventually move into the adjacent Plains by late afternoon/evening. Forecast soundings show moderate to potentially strong instability across the Plains with moderately steep lapse rates and dewpoints perhaps into the low 60s. The primary limiting factor will be shear with less than 30 knots of flow below 300mb. However, enough flow should be present, when combined with the moderate to strong instability, to support some storms capable of severe wind gusts.
Arkansas and Vicinity
The most favorable environment across the CONUS on Saturday appears to be from eastern Kansas to Arkansas beneath a belt of stronger mid-level flow where moderate to strong instability may also be in place. This environment would even support supercells. However, storm coverage remains uncertain. Added a small 5% in the Arkansas vicinity where at least isolated storms appear most likely. However, with relatively nebulous forcing, perhaps related to remaining convection from Friday, confidence is low where the strongest storms may occur.
Ohio Valley
A mid-level shortwave trough will amplify across the Great Lakes on Saturday and become negatively tilted toward the end of the period. As this occurs, a surface low will deepen somewhat across southern Ontario with a cold front sweeping across Ohio and northern Kentucky through the day. Despite relatively weak heating across the region due to extensive cloud cover, moderate instability is forecast to develop amid upper 60s dewpoints and cooling temperatures aloft. This, combined with 25 to 30 knots of shear, should be sufficient for multicells and occasional supercells capable of primarily damaging wind gusts.
..Bentley.. 08/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Sunday, August 23
Outlook Summary
Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and wind gusts are possible in portions of the Northeast and across parts of southwest and central Montana.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 210731
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL MONTANA AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST
### SUMMARY
Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and wind gusts are possible in portions of the Northeast and across parts of southwest and central Montana.
Southwest into central Montana
A mid-level shortwave trough will move across the Pacific Northwest and into eastern British Columbia. While the parent trough is forecast to deamplify through the period, moderate mid-level flow is forecast to remain across much of Montana. Weak to potentially moderate instability is forecast to develop across southwest into central Montana. The moderate mid-level flow should provide ample shear for storm organization including some supercell potential. Strong heating will support steep low-level lapse rates and some severe wind gust threat with the strongest storms.
Portions of the Northeast
A mid-level trough will become negatively tilted as it pivots from the Great Lakes to the Northeast on Sunday. A broad 1006-1010mb surface low is forecast somewhere in the vicinity of western New York, southeast Ontario and southern Quebec. Storms are forecast by mid-day along a cold front that should extend from New York into central Pennsylvania on Sunday morning and move eastward through the day. The environment ahead of this front is forecast to have moderate to strong shear and relatively weak instability. Forecast soundings show a lower storm top environment due to warmer temperatures aloft. However, despite the weak instability, the expectation for at least some supercell threat, combined with decent instability within the hail growth zone and strong shear may support some large hail and damaging wind gusts Sunday afternoon/evening.
..Bentley.. 08/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Monday, August 24
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, August 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, August 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, August 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, August 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, August 28 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210854 SPC AC 210854
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough will move across the Northeast on Monday and the surface front will be mostly offshore, reducing the severe weather threat. As this trough departs, ridging will build across the Rockies. This will eventually set up a pattern featuring individual mid-level shortwave troughs within northwesterly flow from the northern Plains to the Midwest. Some severe weather will likely occur with mid-level shortwave troughs within this flow, but these details likely will not become more clear until the short term.
Model consensus indicates a stronger mid-level shortwave trough traversing the Pacific Northwest on D7/Thursday. This pattern would be favorable for some severe weather threat across Montana, but at this time, it appears moisture will stay farther east. Therefore, no severe weather is anticipated.
..Bentley.. 08/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, August 25
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, August 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, August 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, August 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, August 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, August 28 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210854 SPC AC 210854
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough will move across the Northeast on Monday and the surface front will be mostly offshore, reducing the severe weather threat. As this trough departs, ridging will build across the Rockies. This will eventually set up a pattern featuring individual mid-level shortwave troughs within northwesterly flow from the northern Plains to the Midwest. Some severe weather will likely occur with mid-level shortwave troughs within this flow, but these details likely will not become more clear until the short term.
Model consensus indicates a stronger mid-level shortwave trough traversing the Pacific Northwest on D7/Thursday. This pattern would be favorable for some severe weather threat across Montana, but at this time, it appears moisture will stay farther east. Therefore, no severe weather is anticipated.
..Bentley.. 08/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, August 26
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, August 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, August 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, August 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, August 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, August 28 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210854 SPC AC 210854
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough will move across the Northeast on Monday and the surface front will be mostly offshore, reducing the severe weather threat. As this trough departs, ridging will build across the Rockies. This will eventually set up a pattern featuring individual mid-level shortwave troughs within northwesterly flow from the northern Plains to the Midwest. Some severe weather will likely occur with mid-level shortwave troughs within this flow, but these details likely will not become more clear until the short term.
Model consensus indicates a stronger mid-level shortwave trough traversing the Pacific Northwest on D7/Thursday. This pattern would be favorable for some severe weather threat across Montana, but at this time, it appears moisture will stay farther east. Therefore, no severe weather is anticipated.
..Bentley.. 08/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, August 27
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, August 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, August 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, August 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, August 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, August 28 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210854 SPC AC 210854
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough will move across the Northeast on Monday and the surface front will be mostly offshore, reducing the severe weather threat. As this trough departs, ridging will build across the Rockies. This will eventually set up a pattern featuring individual mid-level shortwave troughs within northwesterly flow from the northern Plains to the Midwest. Some severe weather will likely occur with mid-level shortwave troughs within this flow, but these details likely will not become more clear until the short term.
Model consensus indicates a stronger mid-level shortwave trough traversing the Pacific Northwest on D7/Thursday. This pattern would be favorable for some severe weather threat across Montana, but at this time, it appears moisture will stay farther east. Therefore, no severe weather is anticipated.
..Bentley.. 08/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, August 28
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, August 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, August 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, August 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, August 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, August 28 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210854 SPC AC 210854
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough will move across the Northeast on Monday and the surface front will be mostly offshore, reducing the severe weather threat. As this trough departs, ridging will build across the Rockies. This will eventually set up a pattern featuring individual mid-level shortwave troughs within northwesterly flow from the northern Plains to the Midwest. Some severe weather will likely occur with mid-level shortwave troughs within this flow, but these details likely will not become more clear until the short term.
Model consensus indicates a stronger mid-level shortwave trough traversing the Pacific Northwest on D7/Thursday. This pattern would be favorable for some severe weather threat across Montana, but at this time, it appears moisture will stay farther east. Therefore, no severe weather is anticipated.
..Bentley.. 08/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, August 21
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Saturday, August 22
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Sunday, August 23
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Monday, August 24
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, August 25
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, August 26
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, August 27
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, August 28
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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