Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, November 8
Outlook Summary
Severe storms appear unlikely across the U.S. Sunday through Sunday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 080533
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 PM CST Sat Nov 07 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe storms appear unlikely across the U.S. Sunday through Sunday night.
South Texas
An upper low over Sonora, Mexico, late this evening is forecast to move/develop toward the TX Big Bend with an attending belt of enhanced mid/upper-level flow present over central and southern TX. The 00Z Brownsville and Corpus Christi, TX, soundings sampled a seasonably moist air mass (e.g., PW of 1.7”) advancing inland ahead of the upper-air system with boundary-layer dewpoints expected to rise into the low to mid 70s across Deep South TX on Sunday. That moisture will contribute to at least marginal instability, which, coupled with persistent low/midlevel warm advection downstream from the upper low, will foster multiple waves of thunderstorms during the forecast period.
A vertically veering wind profile with up to 35-40 kt of deep-layer shear is forecast across the region on Sunday, which would conditionally support supercell storm modes and an associated severe weather threat. However, considerable uncertainty exists in the extent to which the air mass can destabilize due to the deleterious effects of convective outflow and cloud cover arising from early-day storms. As such, no severe weather probabilities will be included in this forecast.
### Washington
While the strongest forcing for ascent will shift away from the region Sunday morning, steep lapse rates in the 0-3 km layer may support a few sufficiently deep convective updrafts for lightning generation into afternoon.
### Lower Great Lakes and Maine
Isolated lightning occurrences appear possible over ME Sunday morning in association with an upper low moving through the area. Sporadic lightning activity may also occur in the lee of the lower Great Lakes Sunday night within a zone of strong dynamic ascent/midlevel cooling present on the cyclonic side of mid/upper-level wind maxima progressing into the region. In both areas, areal lightning coverage is expected to be less than 10%.
..Mead.. 11/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Monday, November 9
Outlook Summary
There appears little risk for severe thunderstorms across the U.S. Monday through Monday night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 071920
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Sat Nov 07 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
There appears little risk for severe thunderstorms across the U.S. Monday through Monday night.
Discussion
An initially strong, zonal mid/upper jet across the mid-latitude Pacific is forecast to trend more amplified Monday through Monday night, with split downstream flow inland across the Pacific coast trending more confluent east of the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard. Within an evolving branch across the subtropical latitudes, it appears that a remnant cyclonic mid-level circulation will continue to become increasingly sheared across and east-northeast of the Texas Big Bend vicinity. Upstream, models suggest that one or two perturbations emerging from the mid- and subtropical eastern Pacific also will undergo considerable deformation, while progressing inland within building larger-scale ridging.
Southern Texas
Potential for scattered thunderstorm activity, largely supported by forcing for ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection downstream of the weakening mid-level perturbation, may continue into the day Monday, before tending to diminish Monday afternoon into evening.
Pacific Northwest
REFS calibrated thunderstorm guidance suggests potential for scattered thunderstorm development inland of at least the Oregon coast into Cascades by late Monday afternoon. This would likely accompany destabilization beneath a relatively modest inland progressing thermal trough (including 500 mb temperatures of around -18 to -20C). RRFS forecast soundings do indicate the development of weak CAPE, but the extent to which thermodynamic profiles become supportive of lightning discharge remains unclear. At this time, probabilities for thunderstorm initiation still appear negligible (i.e., less than 10 percent).
..Kerr.. 11/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Tuesday, November 10
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, November 10 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, November 11 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, November 13 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, November 14 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070938 SPC AC 070938
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CST Sat Nov 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
During the mid-week, a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the western and central Gulf Coast, where a moist airmass will likely be in place. Thunderstorm development will be possible near the coasts of Texas and Louisiana from Tuesday into Wednesday. On Thursday, thunderstorm development will be possible in parts of the eastern U.S, ahead of a deepening upper-level trough. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. from Tuesday to Thursday.
On Friday and Saturday, dry and cool air associated with high pressure is forecast to dominate the central and eastern U.S., which will likely limit thunderstorm potential over most of the U.S.
..Broyles.. 11/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, November 11
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, November 10 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, November 11 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, November 13 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, November 14 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070938 SPC AC 070938
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CST Sat Nov 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
During the mid-week, a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the western and central Gulf Coast, where a moist airmass will likely be in place. Thunderstorm development will be possible near the coasts of Texas and Louisiana from Tuesday into Wednesday. On Thursday, thunderstorm development will be possible in parts of the eastern U.S, ahead of a deepening upper-level trough. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. from Tuesday to Thursday.
On Friday and Saturday, dry and cool air associated with high pressure is forecast to dominate the central and eastern U.S., which will likely limit thunderstorm potential over most of the U.S.
..Broyles.. 11/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, November 12
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, November 10 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, November 11 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, November 13 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, November 14 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070938 SPC AC 070938
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CST Sat Nov 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
During the mid-week, a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the western and central Gulf Coast, where a moist airmass will likely be in place. Thunderstorm development will be possible near the coasts of Texas and Louisiana from Tuesday into Wednesday. On Thursday, thunderstorm development will be possible in parts of the eastern U.S, ahead of a deepening upper-level trough. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. from Tuesday to Thursday.
On Friday and Saturday, dry and cool air associated with high pressure is forecast to dominate the central and eastern U.S., which will likely limit thunderstorm potential over most of the U.S.
..Broyles.. 11/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, November 13
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, November 10 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, November 11 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, November 13 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, November 14 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070938 SPC AC 070938
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CST Sat Nov 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
During the mid-week, a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the western and central Gulf Coast, where a moist airmass will likely be in place. Thunderstorm development will be possible near the coasts of Texas and Louisiana from Tuesday into Wednesday. On Thursday, thunderstorm development will be possible in parts of the eastern U.S, ahead of a deepening upper-level trough. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. from Tuesday to Thursday.
On Friday and Saturday, dry and cool air associated with high pressure is forecast to dominate the central and eastern U.S., which will likely limit thunderstorm potential over most of the U.S.
..Broyles.. 11/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, November 14
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, November 10 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, November 11 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, November 13 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, November 14 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070938 SPC AC 070938
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CST Sat Nov 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
During the mid-week, a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the western and central Gulf Coast, where a moist airmass will likely be in place. Thunderstorm development will be possible near the coasts of Texas and Louisiana from Tuesday into Wednesday. On Thursday, thunderstorm development will be possible in parts of the eastern U.S, ahead of a deepening upper-level trough. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. from Tuesday to Thursday.
On Friday and Saturday, dry and cool air associated with high pressure is forecast to dominate the central and eastern U.S., which will likely limit thunderstorm potential over most of the U.S.
..Broyles.. 11/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, November 8
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Monday, November 9
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Tuesday, November 10
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, November 11
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, November 12
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, November 13
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, November 14
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Your Severe Outlook
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