Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, February 10
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 100533
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 PM CST Mon Feb 09 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
Discussion
Late-evening model guidance continues to suggest a pronounced short-wave trough will approach the CA coast during the latter half of the period as a 500mb speed max translates inland across southern CA. Cooling profiles north of this jet favor steepening lapse rates and weak destabilization such that isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop. Forecast soundings suggest deeper convective updrafts may generate lightning, primarily after 11/00z as weak destabilization is maximized immediately ahead of the short wave/cold front.
Downstream, water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low over the southern Baja Peninsula. This feature is beginning to eject northeast and should advance into the Big Bend/northeast Mexico by late afternoon. Lapse rates will steepen across far west TX ahead of this feature, and high-level diffluent flow aloft will prove favorable for weak convection across this region. Isolated lightning is expected with some of this activity.
..Darrow/Squitieri.. 02/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Wednesday, February 11
Outlook Summary
No severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 100549
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CST Mon Feb 09 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
No severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday.
Synopsis
Upper ridging will build across much of the central CONUS on Wednesday, limiting thunderstorm potential. Further west, an upper trough/low will develop east/southeast across CA into the Great Basin vicinity. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible beneath upper low, particularly across portions of central CA. Thunderstorm potential should decrease during the nighttime hours with eastward extent as thermodynamic profiles become less favorable.
..Leitman.. 02/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Thursday, February 12
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 100734
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.
Synopsis
Upper level ridging will persist across central portions of the CONUS on Thursday. Meanwhile, northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the eastern states and an upper trough will move across CA toward northwest Mexico. Lee low development is forecast across the central/southern High Plains, supporting southerly low-level flow across the western Gulf. Modest moisture will spread across parts of the south-central U.S. in response, mainly after 00z. However, upper ridging and surface high pressure across most of the rest of the CONUS will preclude thunderstorm activity as stable conditions prevail.
..Leitman.. 02/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Friday, February 13
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, February 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, February 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, February 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, February 16 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, February 17 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100901 SPC AC 100901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-6/Fri-Sun – TX into the Southeast
An upper trough is forecast to spread eastward from the Southwest into the Southeast Days 4-6/Fri-Sun. Beginning on Day 4/Friday, southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Plains ahead of the trough and surface low pressure is expected to develop over western TX. As the system spreads east through the weekend, Gulf moisture (upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints) will overspread much of central to eastern TX toward the Lower MS Valley and Deep South. Some model spread persists with regards to the timing of eastward progression of the upper trough, and exact latitude of the surface low (some guidance clustering further south, other guidance a bit further north), which will impact quality of moisture return. Regardless, at least weak destabilization should accompany boundary layer moistening and cooling aloft amid strengthening deep-layer southwesterly flow.
Some low-end severe potential is possible from Friday evening through Saturday across portions of TX, and into the Lower MS Valley/Deep South Saturday night through Sunday. However, overall severe potential will likely be limited by weak destabilization, a somewhat cool boundary layer, and questionable moisture return this early in the season, precluding 15 percent severe delineation.
..Leitman.. 02/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, February 14
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, February 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, February 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, February 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, February 16 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, February 17 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100901 SPC AC 100901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-6/Fri-Sun – TX into the Southeast
An upper trough is forecast to spread eastward from the Southwest into the Southeast Days 4-6/Fri-Sun. Beginning on Day 4/Friday, southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Plains ahead of the trough and surface low pressure is expected to develop over western TX. As the system spreads east through the weekend, Gulf moisture (upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints) will overspread much of central to eastern TX toward the Lower MS Valley and Deep South. Some model spread persists with regards to the timing of eastward progression of the upper trough, and exact latitude of the surface low (some guidance clustering further south, other guidance a bit further north), which will impact quality of moisture return. Regardless, at least weak destabilization should accompany boundary layer moistening and cooling aloft amid strengthening deep-layer southwesterly flow.
Some low-end severe potential is possible from Friday evening through Saturday across portions of TX, and into the Lower MS Valley/Deep South Saturday night through Sunday. However, overall severe potential will likely be limited by weak destabilization, a somewhat cool boundary layer, and questionable moisture return this early in the season, precluding 15 percent severe delineation.
..Leitman.. 02/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, February 15
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, February 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, February 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, February 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, February 16 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, February 17 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100901 SPC AC 100901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-6/Fri-Sun – TX into the Southeast
An upper trough is forecast to spread eastward from the Southwest into the Southeast Days 4-6/Fri-Sun. Beginning on Day 4/Friday, southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Plains ahead of the trough and surface low pressure is expected to develop over western TX. As the system spreads east through the weekend, Gulf moisture (upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints) will overspread much of central to eastern TX toward the Lower MS Valley and Deep South. Some model spread persists with regards to the timing of eastward progression of the upper trough, and exact latitude of the surface low (some guidance clustering further south, other guidance a bit further north), which will impact quality of moisture return. Regardless, at least weak destabilization should accompany boundary layer moistening and cooling aloft amid strengthening deep-layer southwesterly flow.
Some low-end severe potential is possible from Friday evening through Saturday across portions of TX, and into the Lower MS Valley/Deep South Saturday night through Sunday. However, overall severe potential will likely be limited by weak destabilization, a somewhat cool boundary layer, and questionable moisture return this early in the season, precluding 15 percent severe delineation.
..Leitman.. 02/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, February 16
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, February 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, February 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, February 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, February 16 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, February 17 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100901 SPC AC 100901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-6/Fri-Sun – TX into the Southeast
An upper trough is forecast to spread eastward from the Southwest into the Southeast Days 4-6/Fri-Sun. Beginning on Day 4/Friday, southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Plains ahead of the trough and surface low pressure is expected to develop over western TX. As the system spreads east through the weekend, Gulf moisture (upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints) will overspread much of central to eastern TX toward the Lower MS Valley and Deep South. Some model spread persists with regards to the timing of eastward progression of the upper trough, and exact latitude of the surface low (some guidance clustering further south, other guidance a bit further north), which will impact quality of moisture return. Regardless, at least weak destabilization should accompany boundary layer moistening and cooling aloft amid strengthening deep-layer southwesterly flow.
Some low-end severe potential is possible from Friday evening through Saturday across portions of TX, and into the Lower MS Valley/Deep South Saturday night through Sunday. However, overall severe potential will likely be limited by weak destabilization, a somewhat cool boundary layer, and questionable moisture return this early in the season, precluding 15 percent severe delineation.
..Leitman.. 02/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, February 17
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, February 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, February 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, February 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, February 16 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, February 17 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100901 SPC AC 100901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-6/Fri-Sun – TX into the Southeast
An upper trough is forecast to spread eastward from the Southwest into the Southeast Days 4-6/Fri-Sun. Beginning on Day 4/Friday, southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Plains ahead of the trough and surface low pressure is expected to develop over western TX. As the system spreads east through the weekend, Gulf moisture (upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints) will overspread much of central to eastern TX toward the Lower MS Valley and Deep South. Some model spread persists with regards to the timing of eastward progression of the upper trough, and exact latitude of the surface low (some guidance clustering further south, other guidance a bit further north), which will impact quality of moisture return. Regardless, at least weak destabilization should accompany boundary layer moistening and cooling aloft amid strengthening deep-layer southwesterly flow.
Some low-end severe potential is possible from Friday evening through Saturday across portions of TX, and into the Lower MS Valley/Deep South Saturday night through Sunday. However, overall severe potential will likely be limited by weak destabilization, a somewhat cool boundary layer, and questionable moisture return this early in the season, precluding 15 percent severe delineation.
..Leitman.. 02/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, February 10
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Wednesday, February 11
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Thursday, February 12
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Friday, February 13
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, February 14
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, February 15
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, February 16
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, February 17
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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