Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Wednesday, July 22

Thursday, July 23

Friday, July 24

Saturday, July 25

Sunday, July 26

Monday, July 27

Tuesday, July 28

Wednesday, July 29

Outlook for Wednesday, July 22

Outlook Summary

Isolated to widely scattered storms remain possible across the Carolinas and southern Mid-Atlantic, as well as New England this afternoon and early evening, with damaging winds as the primary concern. Isolated strong to severe wind gusts are also possible in the central High Plains, southeast Texas and central Oregon, where isolated large hail will also be possible.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 5%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 222000

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Valid 222000Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND…SOUTHEAST TEXAS…THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL OREGON.

### SUMMARY

Isolated to widely scattered storms remain possible across the Carolinas and southern Mid-Atlantic, as well as New England this afternoon and early evening, with damaging winds as the primary concern. Isolated strong to severe wind gusts are also possible in the central High Plains, southeast Texas and central Oregon, where isolated large hail will also be possible.

20z Update New England

A broken band of strong to occasionally severe convection remains ongoing ahead of a progressive cold front over northern and eastern New England this afternoon. Weak buoyancy, but fairly strong deep-layer shear (35-45 kt) should support isolated hail, and damaging winds with stronger clusters or supercell structures this afternoon. A brief tornado also remains possible across northern ME where low-level shear is locally stronger. The primary change this outlook cycle was to lower overall severe probabilities and remove them behind the front where the air mass has stabilized.

Mid Atlantic and Carolinas

Farther south, the cold front has become increasingly zonally oriented and slowed as the upper trough has lifted away to the northeast. A warm and very moist environment remains in place across southeastern VA into northern NC. However, poor mid-level lapse rates and decreasing vertical shear have limited convective organization and intensity. Some renewed intensity is possible along the convectively modified boundary/differential heating axis along the NC/VA border this afternoon and evening. However, the severe threat (predominately damaging gusts) is expected to remain isolated into this evening. Severe probabilities have been lowered and adjusted to better match the main focal area for severe storms near the VA/NC border through this evening.

Elsewhere, isolated severe gusts/hail remain possible over parts of the central High Plains and the southeast TX. Isolated hail is also possible over parts of central OR. Scattered storms are expected late this afternoon through the evening. No changes were made to theses areas, see the previous discussion for more information.

..Lyons.. 07/22/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026/

Northern New England this afternoon

Per water vapor imagery and morning upper air observations, a pronounced midlevel trough will progress east-northeastward from PA/NY/Saint Lawrence Valley toward New England through this afternoon. An associated surface cold front will likewise move eastward and provide a focus for thunderstorm development by early afternoon into Maine. A few cloud breaks developing from west-to-east through the afternoon will allow surface temperatures to warm into the 70s with boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s, resulting in MLCAPE in the 1000-1500 J/kg range. Deep-layer, south-southwesterly shear will be sufficient for a mix of clusters and supercells with a primary threat for occasional wind damage.

Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening

A pre-frontal band of convection is ongoing across southern VA, with a narrow zone of stronger surface heating/destabilization to the north of the thicker clouds from northern VA into MD/DE in advance of a cold front moving across PA. The southern fringe of the stronger (35-50 kt) midlevel flow extends to near the VA/NC border on the south side of the thicker cloud band. The ongoing convection is likely persist through the afternoon while spreading slowly southward. Midlevel lapse rates will remain poor, but deep-layer vertical shear will be sufficient for embedded/organized storms with occasional wind damage. Low-level shear will be marginally favorable for rotating storms and perhaps an isolated tornado.

Southeast TX late this afternoon through late evening

Strong surface heating is underway with a general confluence zone near the TX/LA border well to the west of highly-sheared Tropical Storm Bertha. As Bertha continues westward, this confluence zone should support thunderstorm development into southeast TX late this afternoon. Steering flow from the northeast at ~35 kt will favor storm clusters moving southwestward into a hot, deeply mixed boundary layer where buoyancy will be sufficient to maintain the storm clusters into late evening. A few strong-severe outflow gusts will be the main threats.

Northeast CO and vicinity this afternoon/evening

Low-level upslope flow on the cool side of a surface front, combined with weak perturbations rotating around the northwest periphery of the southern Plains midlevel high, will support afternoon thunderstorm development over the foothills. The storms will spread east-southeastward onto the plains, with a tendency for clustering with the potential for isolated severe outflow gusts.

OR this afternoon/evening

Along the northwest edge of the monsoonal moisture plume, a midlevel shortwave trough will move northward from northern CA into OR. Weak forcing for ascent combined with daytime heating over the higher terrain will support scattered thunderstorms later this afternoon/evening from the Cascades into central OR. An environment with MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, steepening low-level lapse rates and effective bulk shear near 25 kt will support isolated strong outflow gusts and marginally severe hail.

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

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Outlook for Thursday, July 23

Outlook Summary

Isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind will be possible the central High Plains on Thursday.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind 5%

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 221720

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind will be possible the central High Plains on Thursday.

Synopsis

A weak mid-level shortwave trough will move through the flow across the central High Plains within the region between the amplified western ridge and eastern trough Thursday afternoon. At the surface, weak low pressure will develop across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles with a stationary front/boundary in place from eastern Colorado into the southern Plains. Thunderstorm development is likely across the Front Range in Colorado, with an increase in coverage spreading into the lower plains with the influence of the passing shortwave.

Central High Plains

Southerly to southeasterly flow across the southern/central High Plains will bring moisture northward into portions of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles and into western Kansas/eastern Colorado. This in combination with steep mid-level lapse rates and heating will yield a moderately unstable air mass from eastern Colorado into western Kansas by the afternoon. Initially, storms are expected to develop along the Front Range before moving into the lower plains and western Kansas by the evening. Shear profiles across Colorado will be fairly weak tempering severe potential. Nonetheless, deeply mixed profiles may support some strong to severe outflow gusts. As the shortwave shifts southward through the period, mid-level flow will increase across western Kansas with resulting modest deep layer shear increase. As storms/clusters move east through the late afternoon/evening an organized cluster or two will have the potential to produce damaging wind.

..Thornton.. 07/22/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Friday, July 24

Outlook Summary

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday across portions of the Dakotas into northern Minnesota.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 221924

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA

### SUMMARY

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday across portions of the Dakotas into northern Minnesota.

Discussion

A trough will move southeastward across the Canadian Prairies toward the Great Lakes, with enhanced mid-level flow overspreading the Dakotas into the Upper Midwest. A surface low will move across northern Manitoba into Quebec as a trailing cold front moves across the northern Plains. Dew points in the mid 60s to 70s will be common ahead of the front across the eastern Dakotas into northern Minnesota. A plume of steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread the region from the north and west, with moderate instability expected by the afternoon. Thunderstorms should develop along the cold front, spreading east through the afternoon and evening. Guidance suggests that MLCIN may hold across much of the region ahead of the front, which would support elevated storms struggling to become surface based. Strong deep layer shear would support supercells, capable of large hail. Should a supercell be able to root at the surface, damaging wind and tornado potential would increase. Should trends favor this outcome, higher probabilities may be needed with subsequent outlooks.

..Thornton.. 07/22/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Saturday, July 25

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, July 25	predictability too low
Day 5	Sunday, July 26	predictability too low
Day 6	Monday, July 27	predictability too low
Day 7	Tuesday, July 28	predictability too low
Day 8	Wednesday, July 29	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220726 SPC AC 220726

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

DISCUSSION

Upper Midwest to Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic

An upper ridge centered over the High Plains will persist through the middle of next week. Meanwhile, upper troughing will be maintained over the eastern U.S. Periods of enhanced northwesterly flow aloft are expected across parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes into parts of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic on the eastern periphery of the Plains upper ridge. Several shortwave impulses are forecast to develop southeast from Canada within this northwest flow regime. This could support daily severe thunderstorm chances from the Upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley, and possibly the Mid-Atlantic. However, the timing of these features is uncertain, and midlevel capping could limit the spatial extent of severe potential. It is likely that portions of the Upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley will need severe probabilities in later outlooks, particularly for Day 4-6/Sat-Mon, and possibly the mid-Atlantic by Day 7/Tue. However, confidence in where this risk will develop each day is too low for 15 percent delineation at this time.

..Leitman.. 07/22/2026

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Outlook for Sunday, July 26

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, July 25	predictability too low
Day 5	Sunday, July 26	predictability too low
Day 6	Monday, July 27	predictability too low
Day 7	Tuesday, July 28	predictability too low
Day 8	Wednesday, July 29	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220726 SPC AC 220726

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

DISCUSSION

Upper Midwest to Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic

An upper ridge centered over the High Plains will persist through the middle of next week. Meanwhile, upper troughing will be maintained over the eastern U.S. Periods of enhanced northwesterly flow aloft are expected across parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes into parts of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic on the eastern periphery of the Plains upper ridge. Several shortwave impulses are forecast to develop southeast from Canada within this northwest flow regime. This could support daily severe thunderstorm chances from the Upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley, and possibly the Mid-Atlantic. However, the timing of these features is uncertain, and midlevel capping could limit the spatial extent of severe potential. It is likely that portions of the Upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley will need severe probabilities in later outlooks, particularly for Day 4-6/Sat-Mon, and possibly the mid-Atlantic by Day 7/Tue. However, confidence in where this risk will develop each day is too low for 15 percent delineation at this time.

..Leitman.. 07/22/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, July 27

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, July 25	predictability too low
Day 5	Sunday, July 26	predictability too low
Day 6	Monday, July 27	predictability too low
Day 7	Tuesday, July 28	predictability too low
Day 8	Wednesday, July 29	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220726 SPC AC 220726

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

DISCUSSION

Upper Midwest to Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic

An upper ridge centered over the High Plains will persist through the middle of next week. Meanwhile, upper troughing will be maintained over the eastern U.S. Periods of enhanced northwesterly flow aloft are expected across parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes into parts of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic on the eastern periphery of the Plains upper ridge. Several shortwave impulses are forecast to develop southeast from Canada within this northwest flow regime. This could support daily severe thunderstorm chances from the Upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley, and possibly the Mid-Atlantic. However, the timing of these features is uncertain, and midlevel capping could limit the spatial extent of severe potential. It is likely that portions of the Upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley will need severe probabilities in later outlooks, particularly for Day 4-6/Sat-Mon, and possibly the mid-Atlantic by Day 7/Tue. However, confidence in where this risk will develop each day is too low for 15 percent delineation at this time.

..Leitman.. 07/22/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Tuesday, July 28

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, July 25	predictability too low
Day 5	Sunday, July 26	predictability too low
Day 6	Monday, July 27	predictability too low
Day 7	Tuesday, July 28	predictability too low
Day 8	Wednesday, July 29	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220726 SPC AC 220726

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

DISCUSSION

Upper Midwest to Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic

An upper ridge centered over the High Plains will persist through the middle of next week. Meanwhile, upper troughing will be maintained over the eastern U.S. Periods of enhanced northwesterly flow aloft are expected across parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes into parts of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic on the eastern periphery of the Plains upper ridge. Several shortwave impulses are forecast to develop southeast from Canada within this northwest flow regime. This could support daily severe thunderstorm chances from the Upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley, and possibly the Mid-Atlantic. However, the timing of these features is uncertain, and midlevel capping could limit the spatial extent of severe potential. It is likely that portions of the Upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley will need severe probabilities in later outlooks, particularly for Day 4-6/Sat-Mon, and possibly the mid-Atlantic by Day 7/Tue. However, confidence in where this risk will develop each day is too low for 15 percent delineation at this time.

..Leitman.. 07/22/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Wednesday, July 29

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, July 25	predictability too low
Day 5	Sunday, July 26	predictability too low
Day 6	Monday, July 27	predictability too low
Day 7	Tuesday, July 28	predictability too low
Day 8	Wednesday, July 29	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220726 SPC AC 220726

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

DISCUSSION

Upper Midwest to Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic

An upper ridge centered over the High Plains will persist through the middle of next week. Meanwhile, upper troughing will be maintained over the eastern U.S. Periods of enhanced northwesterly flow aloft are expected across parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes into parts of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic on the eastern periphery of the Plains upper ridge. Several shortwave impulses are forecast to develop southeast from Canada within this northwest flow regime. This could support daily severe thunderstorm chances from the Upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley, and possibly the Mid-Atlantic. However, the timing of these features is uncertain, and midlevel capping could limit the spatial extent of severe potential. It is likely that portions of the Upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley will need severe probabilities in later outlooks, particularly for Day 4-6/Sat-Mon, and possibly the mid-Atlantic by Day 7/Tue. However, confidence in where this risk will develop each day is too low for 15 percent delineation at this time.

..Leitman.. 07/22/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, July 22: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Thursday, July 23: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: 5%
Friday, July 24: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Saturday, July 25: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, July 26: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, July 27: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, July 28: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, July 29: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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