Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, October 16
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two are expected across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England this afternoon and early evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 30%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 161956
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Valid 162000Z - 171200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two are expected across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England this afternoon and early evening.
20Z Update
Only two changes are made to the outlook for this issuance. The first change is to trim the western edge of the slight risk and associated wind and tornado probabilities, to account for the eastward progression of a cold front. The second change is to trim the western edge of the thunder line from much of the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians Mountains.
..Broyles.. 10/16/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026/
Mid-Atlantic States/southern New England
A large-scale positive-tilt upper-level trough will approach the region, with a modest buoyancy/high-vertical shear scenario expected to be favorable for low-topped/fast-moving storms capable of wind damage near/ahead of a cold front. Such severe potential is expected to maximize across the Delmarva and eastern Pennsylvania into New Jersey and southern New York.
Stratus remains very prevalent across much of the region late this morning, although visible satellite imagery reflects a rather quick erosion south to north across southern Virginia, and this same trend should continue for east of the Blue Ridge/Appalachians spine especially across Virginia into eastern Pennsylvania and perhaps nearby parts of New Jersey/Delmarva.
A related surface low over southern Ontario will develop east-northeastward today into southern Quebec, as a trailing cold front sweeps east-southeastward across the eastern states. Low-level moisture is forecast to gradually increase ahead of the front through the afternoon, and MLCAPE should gradually increase into the 500-1000 J/kg range, particularly where more cloud breaks occur. But, lapse rates through low/mid levels are likely to remain quite poor (reference BUF/PIT/IAD 12Z observed soundings). This should temper overall updraft strength to some extent, and low-topped convection which develops along/near the front may produce little lightning, especially with northward extent into southern New England.
Even with the potential thermodynamic limitations, favorable deep-layer shear will support some updraft organization. Given the strength of the low/mid-level flow, isolated strong/gusty winds may occur. A low-topped convective line will further develop across central into eastern Pennsylvania and southern New York this afternoon. Convectively augmented wind gusts capable of producing scattered damaging winds will likely be the main severe risk as this activity spreads quickly eastward across the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England through early evening. A few line-embedded mesocirculations could also occur, which could yield a brief tornado.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Saturday, October 17
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected Saturday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 161724
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected Saturday.
Synopsis
The majority of the CONUS will be dominated by a cool/dry air mass with no potential for deep convection in the wake of a cold frontal passage off the southeast Atlantic coast. One exception will be across central/south FL where moist profiles (PW greater than 2 inches) and ascent along the cold front will support scattered thunderstorms. A second possible exception will be across the Desert Southwest as midlevel moisture and ascent increase gradually near and east of a weak closed low over northern Baja. Buoyancy rooted in the midlevels will be weak but could become sufficiently deep for charge separation and isolated lightning flashes the latter half of the period.
..Thompson.. 10/16/2026
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Sunday, October 18
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected Sunday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 161922
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected Sunday.
Synopsis
A front will stall in the vicinity of south FL and provide a focus for thunderstorm development in a moist environment with PW values in excess of 2 inches. Across AZ/NM, a midlevel trough will eject northeastward in advance of height falls over the Pacific Northwest coast late in the period. Midlevel lapse rates, moisture and ascent could be sufficiently deep for charge separation and isolated lightning flashes with weak midlevel convection.
..Thompson.. 10/16/2026
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Monday, October 19
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, October 19 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, October 20 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, October 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, October 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, October 23 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160752 SPC AC 160752
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
A rather stagnant upper-air pattern will be in place across the CONUS into early next week, with an upper ridge continuing over the central U.S. as a mid-level cut-off low meanders along the Atlantic coastline and an upper trough gradually amplifies along the West Coast. By the middle to end of next week, the West Coast upper trough will advance eastward toward the Rockies, encouraging surface lee troughing and subsequent low-level moisture return (albeit modest) across the Great Plains states. Thunderstorm development is possible, especially across portions of the southern High Plains Days 6-7 (next Wednesday-Thursday). However, deterministic guidance suggests that little overlap of meaningful buoyancy and vertical wind shear will take place over the southern High Plains next Wednesday-Thursday, with calibrated ML/AI guidance only hinting at a severe threat that will be isolated at best. Therefore, severe probabilities have been withheld this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 10/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, October 20
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, October 19 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, October 20 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, October 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, October 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, October 23 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160752 SPC AC 160752
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
A rather stagnant upper-air pattern will be in place across the CONUS into early next week, with an upper ridge continuing over the central U.S. as a mid-level cut-off low meanders along the Atlantic coastline and an upper trough gradually amplifies along the West Coast. By the middle to end of next week, the West Coast upper trough will advance eastward toward the Rockies, encouraging surface lee troughing and subsequent low-level moisture return (albeit modest) across the Great Plains states. Thunderstorm development is possible, especially across portions of the southern High Plains Days 6-7 (next Wednesday-Thursday). However, deterministic guidance suggests that little overlap of meaningful buoyancy and vertical wind shear will take place over the southern High Plains next Wednesday-Thursday, with calibrated ML/AI guidance only hinting at a severe threat that will be isolated at best. Therefore, severe probabilities have been withheld this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 10/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, October 21
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, October 19 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, October 20 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, October 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, October 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, October 23 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160752 SPC AC 160752
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
A rather stagnant upper-air pattern will be in place across the CONUS into early next week, with an upper ridge continuing over the central U.S. as a mid-level cut-off low meanders along the Atlantic coastline and an upper trough gradually amplifies along the West Coast. By the middle to end of next week, the West Coast upper trough will advance eastward toward the Rockies, encouraging surface lee troughing and subsequent low-level moisture return (albeit modest) across the Great Plains states. Thunderstorm development is possible, especially across portions of the southern High Plains Days 6-7 (next Wednesday-Thursday). However, deterministic guidance suggests that little overlap of meaningful buoyancy and vertical wind shear will take place over the southern High Plains next Wednesday-Thursday, with calibrated ML/AI guidance only hinting at a severe threat that will be isolated at best. Therefore, severe probabilities have been withheld this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 10/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, October 22
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, October 19 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, October 20 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, October 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, October 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, October 23 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160752 SPC AC 160752
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
A rather stagnant upper-air pattern will be in place across the CONUS into early next week, with an upper ridge continuing over the central U.S. as a mid-level cut-off low meanders along the Atlantic coastline and an upper trough gradually amplifies along the West Coast. By the middle to end of next week, the West Coast upper trough will advance eastward toward the Rockies, encouraging surface lee troughing and subsequent low-level moisture return (albeit modest) across the Great Plains states. Thunderstorm development is possible, especially across portions of the southern High Plains Days 6-7 (next Wednesday-Thursday). However, deterministic guidance suggests that little overlap of meaningful buoyancy and vertical wind shear will take place over the southern High Plains next Wednesday-Thursday, with calibrated ML/AI guidance only hinting at a severe threat that will be isolated at best. Therefore, severe probabilities have been withheld this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 10/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, October 23
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, October 19 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, October 20 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, October 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, October 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, October 23 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160752 SPC AC 160752
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
A rather stagnant upper-air pattern will be in place across the CONUS into early next week, with an upper ridge continuing over the central U.S. as a mid-level cut-off low meanders along the Atlantic coastline and an upper trough gradually amplifies along the West Coast. By the middle to end of next week, the West Coast upper trough will advance eastward toward the Rockies, encouraging surface lee troughing and subsequent low-level moisture return (albeit modest) across the Great Plains states. Thunderstorm development is possible, especially across portions of the southern High Plains Days 6-7 (next Wednesday-Thursday). However, deterministic guidance suggests that little overlap of meaningful buoyancy and vertical wind shear will take place over the southern High Plains next Wednesday-Thursday, with calibrated ML/AI guidance only hinting at a severe threat that will be isolated at best. Therefore, severe probabilities have been withheld this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 10/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, October 16
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 30%
- Saturday, October 17
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Sunday, October 18
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Monday, October 19
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, October 20
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, October 21
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, October 22
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, October 23
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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