Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, November 5
Outlook Summary
Severe storms remain unlikely tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 060100
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 PM CST Thu Nov 05 2026
Valid 060100Z - 061200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe storms remain unlikely tonight.
Synopsis
Evening water-vapor imagery shows broad troughing with several embedded perturbations stretching from eastern Canada to the southern Plains. Several of the more prominent shortwave troughs are forecast to merge over the eastern Great Lakes and upper OH Valley later this evening. This will help intensify a belt of strong mid-level flow over the Appalachians and eastern Seaboard later this evening.
At the surface, a cold front was observed from New England, along the Appalachians to the Gulf Coast, with a second front moving across the Plains. As these fronts move eastward this evening, they should serve as the primary foci for shower and thunderstorms through the overnight hours.
Mid Atlantic to southern New England
A moist surface air mass in place along and east of the front slowly moving over the Appalachians. As the upper low approaches thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase later tonight especially from the Mid Atlantic region northward into southern New England. Strong winds aloft will result in fast-moving storms, but near-surface buoyancy is expected to remain fairly limited. As such, the surface-based convective threat and the overall risk of damaging winds is expected to remain low. Nevertheless, the strong flow aloft, and scattered thunderstorms would not rule out an occasional stronger wind gust overnight. This appears most likely across DelMarVa into southern NY/NJ where the highest storm coverage is expected through 6-12z.
..Lyons.. 11/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Friday, November 6
Outlook Summary
A few strong to severe storms are possible Friday over parts of the eastern Carolinas and southeast Virginia.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 051653
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1053 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS POTIONS OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA
### SUMMARY
A few strong to severe storms are possible Friday over parts of the eastern Carolinas and southeast Virginia.
Eastern Carolinas and southeast Virginia
A belt of enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow will be in place across much of the Eastern Seaboard on Friday as an upper trough pivots east toward the Atlantic coast. A surface front extending from southern New England south/southwest to central GA Friday morning will likewise shift eastward through the period. Ahead of the front, mid 60s F dewpoints will be in place as far north as southeast VA.
Within the warm advection regime ahead of the front, showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing across portions of the region. Coupled with associated cloud cover, daytime heating will be limited, suppressing stronger destabilization despite cooling aloft. Midlevel flow increasing to around 30-40 kt will support effective shear magnitudes around 35-45 kt as convection along the front moves into the moist downstream airmass across the eastern Carolinas and southeast Virginia. This may support organized cells/bows capable of producing damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado. However, the severe risk should remain fairly isolated given expected poor low-level lapse rates and modest instability.
..Leitman.. 11/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Saturday, November 7
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 051859
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 PM CST Thu Nov 05 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.
Synopsis
Surface high pressure will envelop much of the CONUS on Saturday, in the wake of a prior cold frontal passage. This will result in any appreciable boundary layer moisture being relegated to deep South TX and parts of the FL Peninsula. Thunderstorm chances will largely be negligible across most of the Lower 48 given scant boundary layer moisture and little instability. The exception may be across parts of southwest/central TX. Weak elevated instability due to cool temperatures aloft, and a warm advection regime within the 850-700 mb layer support isolated lightning flashes from elevated convection. Severe storms are not anticipated with this activity.
..Leitman.. 11/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Sunday, November 8
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, November 8 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, November 9 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, November 10 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, November 11 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050944 SPC AC 050944
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
Minimal thunderstorm potential is forecast across the CONUS through the period.
Scattered showers and few elevated thunderstorms may persist over far southern TX on Sun/D4 as a positive-tilt shortwave trough moves out of Mexico an into TX. Lapse rates will generally be poor, with marginal instability and moist profiles aided by east/southeast surface winds. Severe weather is not expected with this activity.
Otherwise, an active northern stream jet will bring progressive troughs east/southeastward across the northern Plains, Great Lakes and Northeast/Mid Atlantic, with reinforcing areas of high pressure maintaining stable conditions.
..Jewell.. 11/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, November 9
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, November 8 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, November 9 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, November 10 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, November 11 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050944 SPC AC 050944
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
Minimal thunderstorm potential is forecast across the CONUS through the period.
Scattered showers and few elevated thunderstorms may persist over far southern TX on Sun/D4 as a positive-tilt shortwave trough moves out of Mexico an into TX. Lapse rates will generally be poor, with marginal instability and moist profiles aided by east/southeast surface winds. Severe weather is not expected with this activity.
Otherwise, an active northern stream jet will bring progressive troughs east/southeastward across the northern Plains, Great Lakes and Northeast/Mid Atlantic, with reinforcing areas of high pressure maintaining stable conditions.
..Jewell.. 11/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, November 10
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, November 8 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, November 9 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, November 10 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, November 11 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050944 SPC AC 050944
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
Minimal thunderstorm potential is forecast across the CONUS through the period.
Scattered showers and few elevated thunderstorms may persist over far southern TX on Sun/D4 as a positive-tilt shortwave trough moves out of Mexico an into TX. Lapse rates will generally be poor, with marginal instability and moist profiles aided by east/southeast surface winds. Severe weather is not expected with this activity.
Otherwise, an active northern stream jet will bring progressive troughs east/southeastward across the northern Plains, Great Lakes and Northeast/Mid Atlantic, with reinforcing areas of high pressure maintaining stable conditions.
..Jewell.. 11/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, November 11
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, November 8 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, November 9 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, November 10 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, November 11 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050944 SPC AC 050944
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
Minimal thunderstorm potential is forecast across the CONUS through the period.
Scattered showers and few elevated thunderstorms may persist over far southern TX on Sun/D4 as a positive-tilt shortwave trough moves out of Mexico an into TX. Lapse rates will generally be poor, with marginal instability and moist profiles aided by east/southeast surface winds. Severe weather is not expected with this activity.
Otherwise, an active northern stream jet will bring progressive troughs east/southeastward across the northern Plains, Great Lakes and Northeast/Mid Atlantic, with reinforcing areas of high pressure maintaining stable conditions.
..Jewell.. 11/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, November 12
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, November 8 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, November 9 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, November 10 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, November 11 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050944 SPC AC 050944
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
Minimal thunderstorm potential is forecast across the CONUS through the period.
Scattered showers and few elevated thunderstorms may persist over far southern TX on Sun/D4 as a positive-tilt shortwave trough moves out of Mexico an into TX. Lapse rates will generally be poor, with marginal instability and moist profiles aided by east/southeast surface winds. Severe weather is not expected with this activity.
Otherwise, an active northern stream jet will bring progressive troughs east/southeastward across the northern Plains, Great Lakes and Northeast/Mid Atlantic, with reinforcing areas of high pressure maintaining stable conditions.
..Jewell.. 11/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, November 5
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Friday, November 6
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Saturday, November 7
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Sunday, November 8
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, November 9
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, November 10
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, November 11
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, November 12
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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