Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Friday, July 10

Saturday, July 11

Sunday, July 12

Monday, July 13

Tuesday, July 14

Wednesday, July 15

Thursday, July 16

Outlook for Friday, July 10

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the southern and central High Plains. Severe gusts will also be possible from the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley eastward into the southern and central Appalachians, and over the western Florida Peninsula.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind 15%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 100548

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS…AND FROM THE OZARKS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the southern and central High Plains. Severe gusts will also be possible from the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley eastward into the southern and central Appalachians, and over the western Florida Peninsula.

Southern and Central High Plains

At mid-levels, a shortwave ridge will be build northeastward into the north-central U.S. today as a trough moves through the central Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place over the central Plains. Low-level convergence will become maximized this afternoon from eastern Colorado southward into northeast New Mexico. As surface heating takes place, thunderstorms will form in the higher terrain near this convergence axis, and move eastward into the central and southern High Plains. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep low to mid-level lapse rates will support a threat for severe wind gusts and isolated large hail. The threat may be greatest near the southern edge of the moist airmass from far southeast Colorado and southwest Kansas into the northern Texas Panhandle, where strong moisture convergence is forecast during the early to mid evening.

Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley

A very moist airmass will be in place today across the central U.S., where surface dewpoints will be mostly 70s F. As surface temperatures warm, moderate to strong instability will develop near a moist axis extending west-to-east from the Ozarks into the mid Mississippi Valley. Low-level convergence is expected to become maximized this afternoon along and south of the moist axis. MLCAPE in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range combined with steep low-level lapse rates will support a potential for severe wind gusts with any short line segment that can become organized. The severe threat is expected to be greatest during the late afternoon and early evening, coincident with the maximum in instability.

Southern and Central Appalachians

A subtle mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward into the southern and central Appalachians today. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability will develop over much of the region by afternoon. Topographic forcing and subtle large-scale ascent near the shortwave trough will support isolated to scattered convective development. Thunderstorms will form in the higher terrain and move eastward into the lower elevations during the afternoon. The instability and steep low-level lapse rates will support isolated severe gusts with the stronger multicells.

Western Florida Peninsula

Very moist air will be in place over the Gulf today, where surface dewpoints will be in the 70s F. As temperatures warm, a sea breeze boundary is expected to form near the coast of western Florida around midday. Thunderstorms will develop along this boundary as the it moves inland during the afternoon. Moderate instability and steep low-level lapse rates will support a few severe gusts.

Eastern South Dakota/Southwest Minnesota

An axis of low-level moisture will be in place today from Iowa north-northwestward into southwest Minnesota and eastern South Dakota, where surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability will develop along the moist axis. Although low-level convergence is expected to remain weak, a storm or two associated with a marginal hail threat could develop and move southeastward along the instability axis in the late afternoon and early evening.

..Broyles/Halbert.. 07/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Saturday, July 11

Outlook Summary

Severe storms capable of damaging winds will be possible from the Ozark Plateau east into the Tennessee Valley. Surrounding this area, strong to severe storms capable of sporadic occurrences of damaging wind will be possible from the southern High Plains east toward to the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas Saturday afternoon and evening. Isolated severe storms are also possible in southern Arizona.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind 15%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 100558

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Severe storms capable of damaging winds will be possible from the Ozark Plateau east into the Tennessee Valley. Surrounding this area, strong to severe storms capable of sporadic occurrences of damaging wind will be possible from the southern High Plains east toward to the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas Saturday afternoon and evening. Isolated severe storms are also possible in southern Arizona.

Synopsis

A strong midlevel ridge is expected to continue to build northward across the West on Saturday. Downstream of this ridge, a convectively augmented vorticity maximum is expected to be moving east-southeast across the Mid-Mississippi Valley and into the Tennessee Valley. Farther east, a mid-level short-wave trough will be moving across New England and out over the Atlantic Ocean.

At the surface, a weakening cold front will stretch from far southern New England west into the central US at the start of the period. This front will slowly move south during the day, across the Mid Atlantic and into the Tennessee Valley and Southern Plains. As the aforementioned convectively augmented vorticity maximum across the central US interacts with the residual surface front, weak cyclogenesis may occur across the Mid-Mississippi Valley.

### Ozark Plateau into the Tennessee Valley

By afternoon, temperatures are expected to warm into the mid-90Fs with dewpoints ranging from the mid 60Fs into the low 70Fs. This should yield an unstable environment, with MUCAPE values between 1500-3000 J/kg. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the surface boundary during the afternoon. Deep layer shear is generally expected to be on the order of 20-25 knots across the area, which should support multicell clusters growing upscale into southward moving bowing segments capable of producing damaging winds. Given precipitable water values around 2 inches and mean sub-cloud layer relative humidity around 40-50 percent, there is some potential for a couple of significant wind gusts associated with strong cold pool generation.

### Central and Southern Plains

Similar to areas farther east, temperatures will warm into the mid-to-upper 90Fs with dewpoints in the mid-60Fs to low-70Fs yielding MUCAPE values in the 1500-3000 J/kg range. Thunderstorms should develop during the late afternoon along the surface boundary. High precipitable water values (generally around 1.75 to 2 inches), DCAPE values between 1000-1500 J/kg, and sub-cloud layer mean relative humidity between 30-40 percent will support the potential for strong, damaging outflow winds – some potentially significant. A few occurrences of large hail will also be possible given the degree of instability and modest mid-level lapse rates.

Confidence in the location of where the surface boundary will initiate is lower than areas farther east, which yields lower confidence in adding higher wind probabilities. A Level 2/Slight Risk may be needed in later outlooks if confidence in the number and location of storms increases.

### Mid-Atlantic into northern Florida

Convergence along the southward moving front and the preceding lee trough should allow for scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Although vertical shear is expected to remain generally less than 25 knots, a moderately unstable environment coupled with high precipitable water values (around 2 inches) should support strong to potentially damaging downbursts.

### Southern Arizona

East/northeast mid-level flow is forecast to strengthen slightly on Saturday to the south of the upper high, resulting in a belt of deep-layer shear on the order of 30 knots. A moist and unstable airmass across southern Arizona will support scattered thunderstorm development. As these storms move west, the strengthening flow/shear will support a few strong to briefly severe storms capable of locally damaging wind gusts.

..Marsh.. 07/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Sunday, July 12

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, July 12	potential too low
Day 5	Monday, July 13	predictability too low
Day 6	Tuesday, July 14	predictability too low
Day 7	Wednesday, July 15	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, July 16	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090900 SPC AC 090900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range models continue to indicate that the center of strong mid-level ridging building northeast of the Four Corners states will shift across the middle Missouri Valley early next week, where it may reach peak intensity by about Tuesday, before becoming suppressed. Even as this commences, mid-level ridging in the westerlies may be maintained near and north/northeast of the international border, from the Great Plains through the Great Lakes, while large-scale downstream troughing amplifies southeastward across the Northeast.

Associated with this evolution, a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air still appears likely to advect on the southern fringe of a belt of strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of this ridging. As the nose of the warmer air overspreads the Great Lakes region early next week, forcing for ascent associated with warm advection could begin supporting organizing thunderstorm clusters potentially impacting portions of New England, and/or the lower Great Lakes through Mid Atlantic.

As guidance suggests that the westerlies will initially remain split downstream of the ridge, and a potentially notable short wave trough (and associated cold front) migrating around its periphery and eventually suppressing it, it remains unclear how potential frontal and pre-frontal convection will pan out on any particular day. Due to both synoptic and sub-synoptic predictability issues, severe probabilities remain at less than 15 percent in the day 6-8 time frame. However, this probably will change in later outlooks closer to this time period, when the potential for introducing unduly large forecast false alarm decreases.

..Kerr.. 07/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, July 13

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, July 12	potential too low
Day 5	Monday, July 13	predictability too low
Day 6	Tuesday, July 14	predictability too low
Day 7	Wednesday, July 15	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, July 16	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090900 SPC AC 090900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range models continue to indicate that the center of strong mid-level ridging building northeast of the Four Corners states will shift across the middle Missouri Valley early next week, where it may reach peak intensity by about Tuesday, before becoming suppressed. Even as this commences, mid-level ridging in the westerlies may be maintained near and north/northeast of the international border, from the Great Plains through the Great Lakes, while large-scale downstream troughing amplifies southeastward across the Northeast.

Associated with this evolution, a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air still appears likely to advect on the southern fringe of a belt of strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of this ridging. As the nose of the warmer air overspreads the Great Lakes region early next week, forcing for ascent associated with warm advection could begin supporting organizing thunderstorm clusters potentially impacting portions of New England, and/or the lower Great Lakes through Mid Atlantic.

As guidance suggests that the westerlies will initially remain split downstream of the ridge, and a potentially notable short wave trough (and associated cold front) migrating around its periphery and eventually suppressing it, it remains unclear how potential frontal and pre-frontal convection will pan out on any particular day. Due to both synoptic and sub-synoptic predictability issues, severe probabilities remain at less than 15 percent in the day 6-8 time frame. However, this probably will change in later outlooks closer to this time period, when the potential for introducing unduly large forecast false alarm decreases.

..Kerr.. 07/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Tuesday, July 14

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, July 12	potential too low
Day 5	Monday, July 13	predictability too low
Day 6	Tuesday, July 14	predictability too low
Day 7	Wednesday, July 15	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, July 16	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090900 SPC AC 090900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range models continue to indicate that the center of strong mid-level ridging building northeast of the Four Corners states will shift across the middle Missouri Valley early next week, where it may reach peak intensity by about Tuesday, before becoming suppressed. Even as this commences, mid-level ridging in the westerlies may be maintained near and north/northeast of the international border, from the Great Plains through the Great Lakes, while large-scale downstream troughing amplifies southeastward across the Northeast.

Associated with this evolution, a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air still appears likely to advect on the southern fringe of a belt of strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of this ridging. As the nose of the warmer air overspreads the Great Lakes region early next week, forcing for ascent associated with warm advection could begin supporting organizing thunderstorm clusters potentially impacting portions of New England, and/or the lower Great Lakes through Mid Atlantic.

As guidance suggests that the westerlies will initially remain split downstream of the ridge, and a potentially notable short wave trough (and associated cold front) migrating around its periphery and eventually suppressing it, it remains unclear how potential frontal and pre-frontal convection will pan out on any particular day. Due to both synoptic and sub-synoptic predictability issues, severe probabilities remain at less than 15 percent in the day 6-8 time frame. However, this probably will change in later outlooks closer to this time period, when the potential for introducing unduly large forecast false alarm decreases.

..Kerr.. 07/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Wednesday, July 15

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, July 12	potential too low
Day 5	Monday, July 13	predictability too low
Day 6	Tuesday, July 14	predictability too low
Day 7	Wednesday, July 15	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, July 16	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090900 SPC AC 090900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range models continue to indicate that the center of strong mid-level ridging building northeast of the Four Corners states will shift across the middle Missouri Valley early next week, where it may reach peak intensity by about Tuesday, before becoming suppressed. Even as this commences, mid-level ridging in the westerlies may be maintained near and north/northeast of the international border, from the Great Plains through the Great Lakes, while large-scale downstream troughing amplifies southeastward across the Northeast.

Associated with this evolution, a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air still appears likely to advect on the southern fringe of a belt of strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of this ridging. As the nose of the warmer air overspreads the Great Lakes region early next week, forcing for ascent associated with warm advection could begin supporting organizing thunderstorm clusters potentially impacting portions of New England, and/or the lower Great Lakes through Mid Atlantic.

As guidance suggests that the westerlies will initially remain split downstream of the ridge, and a potentially notable short wave trough (and associated cold front) migrating around its periphery and eventually suppressing it, it remains unclear how potential frontal and pre-frontal convection will pan out on any particular day. Due to both synoptic and sub-synoptic predictability issues, severe probabilities remain at less than 15 percent in the day 6-8 time frame. However, this probably will change in later outlooks closer to this time period, when the potential for introducing unduly large forecast false alarm decreases.

..Kerr.. 07/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Thursday, July 16

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, July 12	potential too low
Day 5	Monday, July 13	predictability too low
Day 6	Tuesday, July 14	predictability too low
Day 7	Wednesday, July 15	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, July 16	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090900 SPC AC 090900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range models continue to indicate that the center of strong mid-level ridging building northeast of the Four Corners states will shift across the middle Missouri Valley early next week, where it may reach peak intensity by about Tuesday, before becoming suppressed. Even as this commences, mid-level ridging in the westerlies may be maintained near and north/northeast of the international border, from the Great Plains through the Great Lakes, while large-scale downstream troughing amplifies southeastward across the Northeast.

Associated with this evolution, a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air still appears likely to advect on the southern fringe of a belt of strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of this ridging. As the nose of the warmer air overspreads the Great Lakes region early next week, forcing for ascent associated with warm advection could begin supporting organizing thunderstorm clusters potentially impacting portions of New England, and/or the lower Great Lakes through Mid Atlantic.

As guidance suggests that the westerlies will initially remain split downstream of the ridge, and a potentially notable short wave trough (and associated cold front) migrating around its periphery and eventually suppressing it, it remains unclear how potential frontal and pre-frontal convection will pan out on any particular day. Due to both synoptic and sub-synoptic predictability issues, severe probabilities remain at less than 15 percent in the day 6-8 time frame. However, this probably will change in later outlooks closer to this time period, when the potential for introducing unduly large forecast false alarm decreases.

..Kerr.. 07/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

National Risk Overview

Friday, July 10: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Saturday, July 11: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Sunday, July 12: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, July 13: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, July 14: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, July 15: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, July 16: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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