Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, March 19
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 192000
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026
Valid 192000Z - 201200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight.
20Z Update
The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged.
..Squitieri.. 03/19/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1049 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026/
Synopsis
Surface high pressure over the Southeast and a dry airmass over the Gulf Basin will result in a persistent stable environment east of the Rockies, precluding thunderstorm activity. A drier airmass is also expected across south FL compared to previous days. Offshore thunderstorms may approach the east-central FL coast tonight. However, meager instability and nebulous forcing will likely limit any thunderstorm coverage on land to less than 10 percent.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Friday, March 20
Outlook Summary
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Upper Ohio Valley, mainly late Friday afternoon into Friday evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 191730
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ON THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Upper Ohio Valley, mainly late Friday afternoon into Friday evening.
Synopsis
An upper ridge will remain in place over the Southwest on Friday, while a large-scale upper trough will cover much of the eastern CONUS. Within the large-scale trough, an embedded shortwave will move from the Upper Great Lakes towards the northern Mid Atlantic and New England. A surface low will move from parts of lower MI toward New England through the period, as trailing cold front moves across the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic.
Parts of the mid/upper Ohio Valley
Modest low-level moisture will return through the day along/ahead of the approaching cold front across parts of the Ohio Valley/Allegheny Plateau region. Regarding prefrontal dewpoints, guidance generally ranges from the low 50s F (HRRR/WRF-ARW) to mid/upper 50s F (NAM and other HREF members). In the presence of strong deep-layer flow/shear, the magnitude of moisture return will determine the level and areal extent of any organized severe potential.
If moisture return becomes sufficient to support MLCAPE of around 500 J/kg or greater, then a few stronger updrafts and perhaps marginal supercell structures could develop by late afternoon or early evening, as convective temperatures are approached or breached and glancing large-scale ascent impinges upon the region. Despite the generally weak instability, any robust storms could pose a threat of marginally severe hail and perhaps locally gusty/damaging winds, given the presence of favorable shear and rather cold temperatures aloft. A brief tornado also cannot be ruled out, though this will be more conditional on richer low-level moisture return and maintenance of surface-based convection.
With generally low-quality moisture noted in Thursday morning observations, sufficient moisture return for an organized severe threat on Friday remains quite uncertain. However, given the presence of very favorable wind profiles and at least some signal for near-surface-based storm development during the late afternoon and evening, a conditional Marginal Risk has been added for Friday across parts of the Upper Ohio Valley. A conditionally favorable environment will extend outside of the Marginal Risk into parts of the mid/lower Ohio Valley, but the signal for storm development currently decreases substantially with southwestward extent.
..Dean.. 03/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Saturday, March 21
Outlook Summary
Isolated general thunderstorms are possible Saturday over the Tennessee Valley to southern Appalachians, and also across parts of the Upper Midwest.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 191929
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated general thunderstorms are possible Saturday over the Tennessee Valley to southern Appalachians, and also across parts of the Upper Midwest.
Synopsis
Some deamplification of the upper-level pattern is expected on Saturday, with a transition to more zonal flow across much of the western and central CONUS. A large-scale upper trough will remain in place across much of the East, with a weak embedded shortwave expected to move from the Mid MS Valley toward the Southeast.
TN Valley into parts of GA and the Carolinas
A weak front that moves into the region late D2/Friday is forecast to stall and potentially become rather ill-defined with time, as a surface low deepens well to the northwest across the north-central Plains. A remnant moisture/instability gradient is still depicted by guidance to be draped from TN into the southern Appalachians and SC by Saturday afternoon. Modest destabilization (with MLCAPE potentially approaching 1000 J/kg) will be possible along/south of the remnant boundary, and isolated storm development may occur as the weakening shortwave trough moves across the region.
Deep-layer shear will generally remain rather modest within the weak northwest-flow regime, and storm coverage may tend to remain limited due to weak large-scale ascent. As a result, confidence in an organized-severe threat is currently too low for probabilities, though isolated strong storms with localized hail and/or wind-damage potential cannot be ruled out, and a Marginal Risk may eventually be needed for parts of the region.
..Dean.. 03/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Sunday, March 22
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, March 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, March 23 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, March 24 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, March 25 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, March 26 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190859 SPC AC 190859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
On Sunday/D4, thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the OH Valley into the Appalachians, and perhaps as far south as the TN Valley, as an upper trough amplifies across the upper MS Valley and into the Great Lakes. A cold front is forecast to extend southwestward from a low over NY/PA, with perhaps lower 60s F dewpoints and MUCAPE on the order of 500-1500 J/kg possible. Models appear to have a wide range of instability values for Sunday, and as such predictability is low. However, there is at least some potential for strong to perhaps a few severe storms over the mid to upper OH Valley. The most likely scenario is for a marginal setup given the northwest flow pattern and modest-moisture-content warm sector.
This front will push south toward the Gulf Coast on Monday/D5, with high pressure building in to the north. The upper trough will move across the Northeast on Monday, with another possibly amplifying across the Great Lakes/Northeast Tuesday/D6 into Wednesday/D7. As this occurs, an upper ridge is likely to exist across the Southwest, with little overall severe potential for those days.
..Jewell.. 03/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, March 23
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, March 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, March 23 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, March 24 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, March 25 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, March 26 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190859 SPC AC 190859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
On Sunday/D4, thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the OH Valley into the Appalachians, and perhaps as far south as the TN Valley, as an upper trough amplifies across the upper MS Valley and into the Great Lakes. A cold front is forecast to extend southwestward from a low over NY/PA, with perhaps lower 60s F dewpoints and MUCAPE on the order of 500-1500 J/kg possible. Models appear to have a wide range of instability values for Sunday, and as such predictability is low. However, there is at least some potential for strong to perhaps a few severe storms over the mid to upper OH Valley. The most likely scenario is for a marginal setup given the northwest flow pattern and modest-moisture-content warm sector.
This front will push south toward the Gulf Coast on Monday/D5, with high pressure building in to the north. The upper trough will move across the Northeast on Monday, with another possibly amplifying across the Great Lakes/Northeast Tuesday/D6 into Wednesday/D7. As this occurs, an upper ridge is likely to exist across the Southwest, with little overall severe potential for those days.
..Jewell.. 03/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, March 24
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, March 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, March 23 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, March 24 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, March 25 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, March 26 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190859 SPC AC 190859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
On Sunday/D4, thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the OH Valley into the Appalachians, and perhaps as far south as the TN Valley, as an upper trough amplifies across the upper MS Valley and into the Great Lakes. A cold front is forecast to extend southwestward from a low over NY/PA, with perhaps lower 60s F dewpoints and MUCAPE on the order of 500-1500 J/kg possible. Models appear to have a wide range of instability values for Sunday, and as such predictability is low. However, there is at least some potential for strong to perhaps a few severe storms over the mid to upper OH Valley. The most likely scenario is for a marginal setup given the northwest flow pattern and modest-moisture-content warm sector.
This front will push south toward the Gulf Coast on Monday/D5, with high pressure building in to the north. The upper trough will move across the Northeast on Monday, with another possibly amplifying across the Great Lakes/Northeast Tuesday/D6 into Wednesday/D7. As this occurs, an upper ridge is likely to exist across the Southwest, with little overall severe potential for those days.
..Jewell.. 03/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, March 25
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, March 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, March 23 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, March 24 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, March 25 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, March 26 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190859 SPC AC 190859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
On Sunday/D4, thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the OH Valley into the Appalachians, and perhaps as far south as the TN Valley, as an upper trough amplifies across the upper MS Valley and into the Great Lakes. A cold front is forecast to extend southwestward from a low over NY/PA, with perhaps lower 60s F dewpoints and MUCAPE on the order of 500-1500 J/kg possible. Models appear to have a wide range of instability values for Sunday, and as such predictability is low. However, there is at least some potential for strong to perhaps a few severe storms over the mid to upper OH Valley. The most likely scenario is for a marginal setup given the northwest flow pattern and modest-moisture-content warm sector.
This front will push south toward the Gulf Coast on Monday/D5, with high pressure building in to the north. The upper trough will move across the Northeast on Monday, with another possibly amplifying across the Great Lakes/Northeast Tuesday/D6 into Wednesday/D7. As this occurs, an upper ridge is likely to exist across the Southwest, with little overall severe potential for those days.
..Jewell.. 03/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, March 26
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, March 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, March 23 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, March 24 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, March 25 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, March 26 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190859 SPC AC 190859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
On Sunday/D4, thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the OH Valley into the Appalachians, and perhaps as far south as the TN Valley, as an upper trough amplifies across the upper MS Valley and into the Great Lakes. A cold front is forecast to extend southwestward from a low over NY/PA, with perhaps lower 60s F dewpoints and MUCAPE on the order of 500-1500 J/kg possible. Models appear to have a wide range of instability values for Sunday, and as such predictability is low. However, there is at least some potential for strong to perhaps a few severe storms over the mid to upper OH Valley. The most likely scenario is for a marginal setup given the northwest flow pattern and modest-moisture-content warm sector.
This front will push south toward the Gulf Coast on Monday/D5, with high pressure building in to the north. The upper trough will move across the Northeast on Monday, with another possibly amplifying across the Great Lakes/Northeast Tuesday/D6 into Wednesday/D7. As this occurs, an upper ridge is likely to exist across the Southwest, with little overall severe potential for those days.
..Jewell.. 03/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, March 19
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Friday, March 20
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Saturday, March 21
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Sunday, March 22
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, March 23
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, March 24
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, March 25
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, March 26
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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