Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, March 6
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe storms remain possible primarily from northeast Oklahoma into Kansas, Missouri and Iowa, with isolated severe storms extending from central Texas to Lower Michigan. Scattered hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes remain possible.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 10%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 070106
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0706 PM CST Fri Mar 06 2026
Valid 070100Z - 071200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe storms remain possible primarily from northeast Oklahoma into Kansas, Missouri and Iowa, with isolated severe storms extending from central Texas to Lower Michigan. Scattered hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes remain possible.
Discussion
The most active area of tornado threat is currently with a cluster of storms over northeast OK. This activity may continue to evolve this evening as the low-level jet increases, and shear remains favorable into eastern KS and southwest MO. The TOP and SGF 00Z soundings continue to show wind profiles favorable for tornadic cells.
To the north along the cold front, an unstable air mass remains ahead of it, although the front will quickly undercut much of the area as it continues south. However, brief supercells may occur along the boundary, with wind and tornado threat, and, elevated hail will remain possible well behind the front.
For more information about KS into IA, see mesoscale discussion 0152.
For information on northeast OK, see mesoscale discussion 0153.
For information on northern IN into southern Lower MI, see mesoscale discussion 0154.
..Jewell.. 03/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Saturday, March 7
Outlook Summary
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are likely from Saturday morning into the evening across a broad swath of the southern Great Plains to the Lower Great Lakes. Isolated very large hail should occur over parts of Texas, centered on the south-central vicinity.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 061726
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Fri Mar 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN TX TO MS AND THE UPPER OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES
### SUMMARY
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are likely from Saturday morning into the evening across a broad swath of the southern Great Plains to the Lower Great Lakes. Isolated very large hail should occur over parts of Texas, centered on the south-central vicinity.
Synopsis
An upper shortwave trough, with multiple embedded shortwave impulses, will move east from the Upper Midwest to the Great Lakes regions on Saturday. Meanwhile, an upper low over the Lower CO Valley will continue to retrograde, becoming positioned offshore from Baja CA by Sunday morning. At the surface, a cyclone over the Upper Great Lakes will deepen as it quickly moves to QC. A trailing cold front will extend southwest from the low across the Lower MO Valley to central TX at 12Z Saturday. This front will sweep east/southeast across the Midwest, while the TX portion slows its southern progression through early Sunday.
OH Valley/Lower Great Lakes
At least scattered convection will be ongoing in a broad swath along/ahead of the aforementioned front from the Mid-South to the central Great Lakes. Southwesterly low-level flow and the deepening surface cyclone into ON/QC will support upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints advecting towards western PA/southwest NY. Cloudiness in vicinity of the ongoing convection will limit heating immediately downstream, but a corridor of moderate insolation should develop from the Cumberland Plateau into a portion of the Upper OH Valley. This should support weak to modest MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg during the afternoon. Most guidance signals an uptick in convective intensity should occur as the large-scale outflow impinges on the stronger instability by early afternoon. Sufficient low-level speed shear will be present to moderately enlarge hodographs, however linear convection is expected to be the main storm mode given nearly parallel to the boundary deep-layer southwesterly flow. Scattered damaging winds from strong to isolated severe gusts should be the main hazard. A tornado or two and isolated marginally severe hail may occur in deeper updrafts.
TX to the Deep South
Extensive convection is expected to be ongoing near the surface front at 12Z Saturday from the Mid-South to the TX Big Country. The western portion of this activity should be elevated with continuous undercutting by the south/southeastward-moving cold front, posing an initial severe hail threat. Linear convection will be most predominant from the Ark-La-Tex/Mid-South, sagging east-southeast across the Lower MS to TN Valleys, as it expands in coverage with downstream diurnal destabilization. Low-level shear will be strongest in the morning, before weakening through the afternoon. A brief tornado or two is possible early, but sporadic bursts of damaging winds should be the primary hazard, along with isolated severe hail. Linear clusters will probably persist into the evening, but shrink in areal extent on Saturday night, with a diminishing severe threat towards the central Gulf Coast.
Over central to southern TX, steep mid-level lapse rates and greater boundary-layer heating, particularly closer to the Rio Grande, should support a plume of MLCAPE from 1500-2000 J/kg. Low-level flow will remain weak and slightly diffluent in the open warm-moist sector. Transient supercells are expected as the composite front/outflow ripples southeastward across the state through the evening. Large hail and isolated severe gusts should be the primary hazards. A more intense supercell or two remains plausible in a meso-beta corridor of south TX/Brush Country vicinity, capable of very large hail. This may warrant a level 3-ENH with a CIG2 delineation in later outlooks.
..Grams.. 03/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Sunday, March 8
Outlook Summary
Isolated, marginally severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday afternoon to early evening across parts of the Carolinas to southeast Virginia.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 061914
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 PM CST Fri Mar 06 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CAROLINAS TO SOUTHEAST VA
### SUMMARY
Isolated, marginally severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday afternoon to early evening across parts of the Carolinas to southeast Virginia.
Synopsis
A lead shortwave impulse will quickly progress east from the Saint Lawrence Valley, as a backside shortwave trough rapidly moves from the Upper Great Lakes across New England by Sunday night. Surface front trailing southwest from the lead impulse will push off the coastal Mid-Atlantic by Sunday afternoon, with frontolysis occurring over the Southeast during the evening/night.
Carolinas and southeast VA
The northern extent of the surface-based warm sector should overlap the southern extent of strong mid-level westerlies atop the trailing cold front. Guidance consensus suggests weak buoyancy should develop by midday/early afternoon across the Southeast Atlantic Coastal Plain and adjacent Piedmont. Both the 12Z NAM and ECMWF depict modestly steep mid-level lapse rates may be present near the mid-level jetlet across VA. Bulk of guidance indicates isolated to scattered storm development off the Piedmont to coastal plain through the afternoon into early evening, before convergence along the front wanes. While low-level shear should be weak, favorable mid to upper-level speed shear could support a few cells with transient mid-level rotation. Isolated severe storms with marginal hail/wind magnitudes seem plausible. This scenario is supported by at least 5 percent total severe probs in the 12Z SPC-GEFS, along with the 00Z NSSL-GEFS and both NCAR-ECENS ML products.
..Grams.. 03/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Monday, March 9
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, March 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, March 10 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, March 11 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Thursday, March 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, March 13 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 061046 SPC AC 061046
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 AM CST Fri Mar 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
CORRECTED FOR TEXT
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Monday
A weak upper shortwave impulse is expected to migrate across the Ozarks/Lower MS Valley on Monday. This will support a narrow corridor of enhanced westerly flow aloft atop a moistening boundary layer. Isolated thunderstorms may develop across the ArkLaTex to Lower MS Valley vicinity within the warm advection regime, and a few storms could become strong to locally severe. However, modest forcing and otherwise lack of low-level focus precludes a 15 percent delineation.
Day 5/Tuesday into Day 6/Wednesday
An upper low and attendant shortwave trough over northwest Mexico is forecast to eject eastward toward the southern High Plains on Tuesday. At the same time, a broad upper trough within northern stream flow will develop east from the northern Plains to the Upper Midwest. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will overspread a large warm/moist sector from the southern Plains to the Mid/Lower MS and Ohio Valleys. A complex surface pattern is expected to emerge, influenced by the split-flow upper troughing pattern. A baroclinic zone extending from OK to the Mid-MS Valley area will be one focus for severe thunderstorm potential. Meanwhile, lee surface troughing across west TX and a developing dryline will be another focus for severe storm development. While details remain uncertain, these surface features, combined with strengthening southwesterly flow overspreading a warm and unstable airmass, will likely foster a broad area of severe thunderstorm potential from the southern Plains into the Midwest.
As the upper troughs from Day 5/Tuesday continue east across the southern Plains and Great Lakes on Day 6/Wednesday, a cold front is expected to develop southeast across the Ohio Valley into east Texas. Spread among forecast guidance increases during this time, leading to more uncertainty. However, most guidance has some overlap of favorable low-level moisture and instability with stronger mid/upper level flow across portions of east TX into the Lower MS Valley. As a result, a 15 percent area has been delineated. This area may need to shift/expand northeast with time depending on trends in model guidance, but currently, it is uncertain if sufficient destabilization will occur further northeast, precluding severe probabilities into the TN/OH Valleys vicinity.
Days 7-8/Thursday-Friday
Predictability is low toward the end of the forecast period as forecast model spread continues to increase. While it is plausible some severe risk could persist into the Southeast on Day 7/Thursday as the upper trough over the Lower MS Valley continues to migrate east, uncertainty is too high to include probabilities at this time.
..Leitman.. 03/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, March 10
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, March 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, March 10 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, March 11 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Thursday, March 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, March 13 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 061046 SPC AC 061046
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 AM CST Fri Mar 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
CORRECTED FOR TEXT
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Monday
A weak upper shortwave impulse is expected to migrate across the Ozarks/Lower MS Valley on Monday. This will support a narrow corridor of enhanced westerly flow aloft atop a moistening boundary layer. Isolated thunderstorms may develop across the ArkLaTex to Lower MS Valley vicinity within the warm advection regime, and a few storms could become strong to locally severe. However, modest forcing and otherwise lack of low-level focus precludes a 15 percent delineation.
Day 5/Tuesday into Day 6/Wednesday
An upper low and attendant shortwave trough over northwest Mexico is forecast to eject eastward toward the southern High Plains on Tuesday. At the same time, a broad upper trough within northern stream flow will develop east from the northern Plains to the Upper Midwest. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will overspread a large warm/moist sector from the southern Plains to the Mid/Lower MS and Ohio Valleys. A complex surface pattern is expected to emerge, influenced by the split-flow upper troughing pattern. A baroclinic zone extending from OK to the Mid-MS Valley area will be one focus for severe thunderstorm potential. Meanwhile, lee surface troughing across west TX and a developing dryline will be another focus for severe storm development. While details remain uncertain, these surface features, combined with strengthening southwesterly flow overspreading a warm and unstable airmass, will likely foster a broad area of severe thunderstorm potential from the southern Plains into the Midwest.
As the upper troughs from Day 5/Tuesday continue east across the southern Plains and Great Lakes on Day 6/Wednesday, a cold front is expected to develop southeast across the Ohio Valley into east Texas. Spread among forecast guidance increases during this time, leading to more uncertainty. However, most guidance has some overlap of favorable low-level moisture and instability with stronger mid/upper level flow across portions of east TX into the Lower MS Valley. As a result, a 15 percent area has been delineated. This area may need to shift/expand northeast with time depending on trends in model guidance, but currently, it is uncertain if sufficient destabilization will occur further northeast, precluding severe probabilities into the TN/OH Valleys vicinity.
Days 7-8/Thursday-Friday
Predictability is low toward the end of the forecast period as forecast model spread continues to increase. While it is plausible some severe risk could persist into the Southeast on Day 7/Thursday as the upper trough over the Lower MS Valley continues to migrate east, uncertainty is too high to include probabilities at this time.
..Leitman.. 03/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, March 11
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, March 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, March 10 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, March 11 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Thursday, March 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, March 13 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 061046 SPC AC 061046
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 AM CST Fri Mar 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
CORRECTED FOR TEXT
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Monday
A weak upper shortwave impulse is expected to migrate across the Ozarks/Lower MS Valley on Monday. This will support a narrow corridor of enhanced westerly flow aloft atop a moistening boundary layer. Isolated thunderstorms may develop across the ArkLaTex to Lower MS Valley vicinity within the warm advection regime, and a few storms could become strong to locally severe. However, modest forcing and otherwise lack of low-level focus precludes a 15 percent delineation.
Day 5/Tuesday into Day 6/Wednesday
An upper low and attendant shortwave trough over northwest Mexico is forecast to eject eastward toward the southern High Plains on Tuesday. At the same time, a broad upper trough within northern stream flow will develop east from the northern Plains to the Upper Midwest. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will overspread a large warm/moist sector from the southern Plains to the Mid/Lower MS and Ohio Valleys. A complex surface pattern is expected to emerge, influenced by the split-flow upper troughing pattern. A baroclinic zone extending from OK to the Mid-MS Valley area will be one focus for severe thunderstorm potential. Meanwhile, lee surface troughing across west TX and a developing dryline will be another focus for severe storm development. While details remain uncertain, these surface features, combined with strengthening southwesterly flow overspreading a warm and unstable airmass, will likely foster a broad area of severe thunderstorm potential from the southern Plains into the Midwest.
As the upper troughs from Day 5/Tuesday continue east across the southern Plains and Great Lakes on Day 6/Wednesday, a cold front is expected to develop southeast across the Ohio Valley into east Texas. Spread among forecast guidance increases during this time, leading to more uncertainty. However, most guidance has some overlap of favorable low-level moisture and instability with stronger mid/upper level flow across portions of east TX into the Lower MS Valley. As a result, a 15 percent area has been delineated. This area may need to shift/expand northeast with time depending on trends in model guidance, but currently, it is uncertain if sufficient destabilization will occur further northeast, precluding severe probabilities into the TN/OH Valleys vicinity.
Days 7-8/Thursday-Friday
Predictability is low toward the end of the forecast period as forecast model spread continues to increase. While it is plausible some severe risk could persist into the Southeast on Day 7/Thursday as the upper trough over the Lower MS Valley continues to migrate east, uncertainty is too high to include probabilities at this time.
..Leitman.. 03/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, March 12
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, March 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, March 10 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, March 11 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Thursday, March 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, March 13 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 061046 SPC AC 061046
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 AM CST Fri Mar 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
CORRECTED FOR TEXT
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Monday
A weak upper shortwave impulse is expected to migrate across the Ozarks/Lower MS Valley on Monday. This will support a narrow corridor of enhanced westerly flow aloft atop a moistening boundary layer. Isolated thunderstorms may develop across the ArkLaTex to Lower MS Valley vicinity within the warm advection regime, and a few storms could become strong to locally severe. However, modest forcing and otherwise lack of low-level focus precludes a 15 percent delineation.
Day 5/Tuesday into Day 6/Wednesday
An upper low and attendant shortwave trough over northwest Mexico is forecast to eject eastward toward the southern High Plains on Tuesday. At the same time, a broad upper trough within northern stream flow will develop east from the northern Plains to the Upper Midwest. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will overspread a large warm/moist sector from the southern Plains to the Mid/Lower MS and Ohio Valleys. A complex surface pattern is expected to emerge, influenced by the split-flow upper troughing pattern. A baroclinic zone extending from OK to the Mid-MS Valley area will be one focus for severe thunderstorm potential. Meanwhile, lee surface troughing across west TX and a developing dryline will be another focus for severe storm development. While details remain uncertain, these surface features, combined with strengthening southwesterly flow overspreading a warm and unstable airmass, will likely foster a broad area of severe thunderstorm potential from the southern Plains into the Midwest.
As the upper troughs from Day 5/Tuesday continue east across the southern Plains and Great Lakes on Day 6/Wednesday, a cold front is expected to develop southeast across the Ohio Valley into east Texas. Spread among forecast guidance increases during this time, leading to more uncertainty. However, most guidance has some overlap of favorable low-level moisture and instability with stronger mid/upper level flow across portions of east TX into the Lower MS Valley. As a result, a 15 percent area has been delineated. This area may need to shift/expand northeast with time depending on trends in model guidance, but currently, it is uncertain if sufficient destabilization will occur further northeast, precluding severe probabilities into the TN/OH Valleys vicinity.
Days 7-8/Thursday-Friday
Predictability is low toward the end of the forecast period as forecast model spread continues to increase. While it is plausible some severe risk could persist into the Southeast on Day 7/Thursday as the upper trough over the Lower MS Valley continues to migrate east, uncertainty is too high to include probabilities at this time.
..Leitman.. 03/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, March 13
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, March 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, March 10 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, March 11 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Thursday, March 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, March 13 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 061046 SPC AC 061046
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 AM CST Fri Mar 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
CORRECTED FOR TEXT
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Monday
A weak upper shortwave impulse is expected to migrate across the Ozarks/Lower MS Valley on Monday. This will support a narrow corridor of enhanced westerly flow aloft atop a moistening boundary layer. Isolated thunderstorms may develop across the ArkLaTex to Lower MS Valley vicinity within the warm advection regime, and a few storms could become strong to locally severe. However, modest forcing and otherwise lack of low-level focus precludes a 15 percent delineation.
Day 5/Tuesday into Day 6/Wednesday
An upper low and attendant shortwave trough over northwest Mexico is forecast to eject eastward toward the southern High Plains on Tuesday. At the same time, a broad upper trough within northern stream flow will develop east from the northern Plains to the Upper Midwest. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will overspread a large warm/moist sector from the southern Plains to the Mid/Lower MS and Ohio Valleys. A complex surface pattern is expected to emerge, influenced by the split-flow upper troughing pattern. A baroclinic zone extending from OK to the Mid-MS Valley area will be one focus for severe thunderstorm potential. Meanwhile, lee surface troughing across west TX and a developing dryline will be another focus for severe storm development. While details remain uncertain, these surface features, combined with strengthening southwesterly flow overspreading a warm and unstable airmass, will likely foster a broad area of severe thunderstorm potential from the southern Plains into the Midwest.
As the upper troughs from Day 5/Tuesday continue east across the southern Plains and Great Lakes on Day 6/Wednesday, a cold front is expected to develop southeast across the Ohio Valley into east Texas. Spread among forecast guidance increases during this time, leading to more uncertainty. However, most guidance has some overlap of favorable low-level moisture and instability with stronger mid/upper level flow across portions of east TX into the Lower MS Valley. As a result, a 15 percent area has been delineated. This area may need to shift/expand northeast with time depending on trends in model guidance, but currently, it is uncertain if sufficient destabilization will occur further northeast, precluding severe probabilities into the TN/OH Valleys vicinity.
Days 7-8/Thursday-Friday
Predictability is low toward the end of the forecast period as forecast model spread continues to increase. While it is plausible some severe risk could persist into the Southeast on Day 7/Thursday as the upper trough over the Lower MS Valley continues to migrate east, uncertainty is too high to include probabilities at this time.
..Leitman.. 03/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, March 6
- TORNADO: 10%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Saturday, March 7
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Sunday, March 8
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Monday, March 9
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, March 10
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Wednesday, March 11
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Thursday, March 12
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, March 13
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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