Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, July 27
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail are expected this evening across parts of the Ohio Valley. Additional storms with severe wind gusts are also expected from Lower Michigan southward into Ohio. A few strong gusts will also be possible in parts of the central Plains and in south-central Arizona.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 30%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 280100
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026
Valid 280100Z - 281200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail are expected this evening across parts of the Ohio Valley. Additional storms with severe wind gusts are also expected from Lower Michigan southward into Ohio. A few strong gusts will also be possible in parts of the central Plains and in south-central Arizona.
Ohio Valley/Great Lakes
On water vapor imagery, a mid-level shortwave trough is moving southward through the Ohio Valley. Ahead of this feature, a moist and unstable airmass is in place with surface dewpoints in the 70s and low 80s F. The RAP has a pocket of strong instability located from western Kentucky into southern Indiana, where MLCAPE is estimated in the 3500 to 4500 J/kg range. Scattered strong to severe storms are ongoing along the northern edge of the stronger instability, and the storms are being supported by large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave trough. In addition, the WSR-88D VWP at Louisville has 0-6 km shear of 30 to 35 knots suggesting a potential for organized severe storms will continue this evening. Severe wind gusts will be possible with supercells and short bowing line segments. The greatest coverage of severe is expected to be over southern Indiana and far northern Kentucky…see MCD 1774.
Further north into Lower Michigan, scattered strong thunderstorms are ongoing ahead a subtle shortwave trough evident on water vapor imagery. Short-term model forecasts suggest these storms will expand in coverage and move southward across Lower Michigan into Ohio during the late evening and early overnight period. Along this corridor, the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range with 40 to 50 knot of deep-layer shear. This should support a wind-damage threat with organized short line segments.
Central Plains
At mid-levels, a subtle shortwave trough is currently moving over the top of a ridge in the central High Plains. Ahead of the shortwave trough, scattered strong thunderstorms are ongoing along the western edge of a pocket of strong instability. The RAP currently shows MLCAPE over central Nebraska in the 4000 to 5500 range. Even though forecast soundings near the instability maximum have low to mid-level wind speeds generally less than 20 knots, the instability combined with very steep low-level lapse rates may be enough for isolated severe wind gusts for a few more hours this evening.
Arizona
The latest surface analysis shows a sufficiently moist airmass in place over the southern half of Arizona, where dewpoints are mostly in the mid to upper 50s F. Within the moist air, the RAP has a pocket of moderate instability with MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. Thunderstorm have developed along the northern edge of the stronger instability. These storms will move westward across south-central Arizona this evening, and may pose a threat for severe wind gusts due to very steep low to mid-level lapse rates…MCD 1772.
..Broyles.. 07/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Tuesday, July 28
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and isolated hail are possible from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas and parts of the Appalachians Tuesday into Tuesday evening. A tornado threat may develop from southeast Virginia into eastern North Carolina. Isolated severe wind gusts and large hail may occur in the central High Plains.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 30%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 271734
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS AND PARTS OF THE APPALACHIANS
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and isolated hail are possible from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas and parts of the Appalachians Tuesday into Tuesday evening. A tornado threat may develop from southeast Virginia into eastern North Carolina. Isolated severe wind gusts and large hail may occur in the central High Plains.
Southern Mid Atlantic / Appalachians / Carolinas
An upper trough will gradually deepen and move southeastward across the Mid Atlantic, with the left-front quadrant of the upper jet moving across VA and NC. At the surface, low pressure will deepen ahead of a cold front, with wind shift roughly from eastern PA into central VA and NC during the afternoon.
A moist and unstable air mass will develop across the region, and shear profiles will become increasingly favorable for supercells. The most favorable combination of shear and instability looks to be from parts of eastern VA into east-central/northeast NC. Here, 850 mb winds will increase out of the southwest to around 30 kt, with effective SRH possibly into the 200-300 m2/s2 range. A tornado or two is possible, with perhaps a transition to bows producing damaging winds. This area will be watched closely into the Day 1 period.
Farther north and also within the surface trough, shear will be weaker aloft. However, favorable low-level shear may yield a brief tornado as well into eastern PA/NJ.
Otherwise, additional storms are likely across the Appalachians as surface heating occurs beneath the relatively cool temperatures aloft. Low-level winds will be more veered in these areas, but long hodographs and substantial instability will still favor hail and locally damaging winds.
Central High Plains
Strong heating will occur under the upper ridge, with a weak lee trough developing. Surface winds will back to easterly late in the day and evening, which will increase upslope-flow and yield a moderately unstable environment by afternoon with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. This will support scattered thunderstorm development along the high terrain within a kinematic environment featuring 30-35 kt westerly deep-layer shear. Transient supercell structures appear possible, which suggest some marginally severe hail potential despite the warm mid-level temperatures. Generally mixed-modes should persist into the evening into eastern CO and far western NE with locally strong gusts.
..Jewell.. 07/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Wednesday, July 29
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe storms capable of mainly damaging winds appear possible Wednesday over parts of southern Georgia and Alabama, and over much of northern Florida. A few severe storms are also possible over the central High Plains late in the day.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 271920
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND ALABAMA INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe storms capable of mainly damaging winds appear possible Wednesday over parts of southern Georgia and Alabama, and over much of northern Florida. A few severe storms are also possible over the central High Plains late in the day.
Southeast
The upper trough over the eastern states will generally weaken as the low occludes over the Northeast. A surface low will redevelop over the Atlantic, with drier air spreading southeast across much of the eastern seaboard behind a cold front.
Southern portions of the cold front will proceed southward across GA, AL, and into FL, and the corridor immediately ahead of this front will have severe wind potential. Strong heating will occur while a ribbon of 70s F dewpoints are maintained. Tall instability profiles per forecast soundings and MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg will favor high echo tops and possible water-loaded severe downbursts. Shear will be weak, but the general northwest flow regime on the far southern periphery of the upper trough will aid southeastward storm motion and locally severe wind gusts during the afternoon.
Northern/Central High Plains
A lee trough will develop over eastern MT/WY into the western Dakotas as a minor disturbance rounds the upper ridge and enhances deep-layer shear late in the day. Mid 50s to near 60 F dewpoints will contribute to up to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, and lapse rates will be relatively steep through a deep layer. Storms are likely to form along the length of the surface trough across eastern MT and WY, with activity spreading eastward into the western Dakotas during the evening. The deeply mixed boundary layer should support strong outflow, which may be locally damaging. Sporadic marginal hail cannot be ruled out as well.
..Jewell.. 07/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Thursday, July 30
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, July 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, July 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, August 1 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, August 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, August 3 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270826 SPC AC 270826
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Thursday
A short-wave trough is forecast to move through the northern Plains and upper MS Valley, within the northeast periphery of an upper high centered over the southern Rockies. At the surface, a weak cold front is expected to follow the track of the upper-air system with moderate to strong instability expected by afternoon ahead of the boundary. Various deterministic and ensemble guidance indicates thunderstorms developing over the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley with subsequent movement into the mid MO Valley and perhaps upper Midwest Thursday night. Forecast vertical shear is on the margins of that which supports organized storm modes and an associated greater severe weather threat. Nonetheless, isolated severe weather appears likely, requiring at least low probabilities in the Day 3 time frame.
### Day 5/Friday
The Day 4 short-wave trough is expected to continue southeast through the Midwest with an associated surface low developing into the mid MS Valley. A trailing cool front will extend through the Ozark Plateau into the Southern Plains. Persistent low-level ridging from the lower Great Lakes into the TN Valley will limit the eastward extent of more robust air mass destabilization ahead of the surface low and along the track of the short-wave trough. It does appear that a corridor of stronger instability and modest vertical shear will develop from the mid MS Valley into the Ozark Plateau, where a few severe storms appear possible.
### Day 6-8/Saturday through Monday
The 00Z ensemble means remain in good agreement in depicting a stronger short-wave trough and attending belt of mid-level flow progressing along the international border from the Pacific northwest to the northern Plains. Some severe weather threat could materialize along an associated cold front over the northern Plains on Sunday and the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley on Monday.
..Mead.. 07/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, July 31
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, July 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, July 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, August 1 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, August 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, August 3 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270826 SPC AC 270826
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Thursday
A short-wave trough is forecast to move through the northern Plains and upper MS Valley, within the northeast periphery of an upper high centered over the southern Rockies. At the surface, a weak cold front is expected to follow the track of the upper-air system with moderate to strong instability expected by afternoon ahead of the boundary. Various deterministic and ensemble guidance indicates thunderstorms developing over the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley with subsequent movement into the mid MO Valley and perhaps upper Midwest Thursday night. Forecast vertical shear is on the margins of that which supports organized storm modes and an associated greater severe weather threat. Nonetheless, isolated severe weather appears likely, requiring at least low probabilities in the Day 3 time frame.
### Day 5/Friday
The Day 4 short-wave trough is expected to continue southeast through the Midwest with an associated surface low developing into the mid MS Valley. A trailing cool front will extend through the Ozark Plateau into the Southern Plains. Persistent low-level ridging from the lower Great Lakes into the TN Valley will limit the eastward extent of more robust air mass destabilization ahead of the surface low and along the track of the short-wave trough. It does appear that a corridor of stronger instability and modest vertical shear will develop from the mid MS Valley into the Ozark Plateau, where a few severe storms appear possible.
### Day 6-8/Saturday through Monday
The 00Z ensemble means remain in good agreement in depicting a stronger short-wave trough and attending belt of mid-level flow progressing along the international border from the Pacific northwest to the northern Plains. Some severe weather threat could materialize along an associated cold front over the northern Plains on Sunday and the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley on Monday.
..Mead.. 07/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, August 1
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, July 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, July 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, August 1 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, August 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, August 3 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270826 SPC AC 270826
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Thursday
A short-wave trough is forecast to move through the northern Plains and upper MS Valley, within the northeast periphery of an upper high centered over the southern Rockies. At the surface, a weak cold front is expected to follow the track of the upper-air system with moderate to strong instability expected by afternoon ahead of the boundary. Various deterministic and ensemble guidance indicates thunderstorms developing over the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley with subsequent movement into the mid MO Valley and perhaps upper Midwest Thursday night. Forecast vertical shear is on the margins of that which supports organized storm modes and an associated greater severe weather threat. Nonetheless, isolated severe weather appears likely, requiring at least low probabilities in the Day 3 time frame.
### Day 5/Friday
The Day 4 short-wave trough is expected to continue southeast through the Midwest with an associated surface low developing into the mid MS Valley. A trailing cool front will extend through the Ozark Plateau into the Southern Plains. Persistent low-level ridging from the lower Great Lakes into the TN Valley will limit the eastward extent of more robust air mass destabilization ahead of the surface low and along the track of the short-wave trough. It does appear that a corridor of stronger instability and modest vertical shear will develop from the mid MS Valley into the Ozark Plateau, where a few severe storms appear possible.
### Day 6-8/Saturday through Monday
The 00Z ensemble means remain in good agreement in depicting a stronger short-wave trough and attending belt of mid-level flow progressing along the international border from the Pacific northwest to the northern Plains. Some severe weather threat could materialize along an associated cold front over the northern Plains on Sunday and the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley on Monday.
..Mead.. 07/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, August 2
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, July 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, July 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, August 1 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, August 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, August 3 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270826 SPC AC 270826
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Thursday
A short-wave trough is forecast to move through the northern Plains and upper MS Valley, within the northeast periphery of an upper high centered over the southern Rockies. At the surface, a weak cold front is expected to follow the track of the upper-air system with moderate to strong instability expected by afternoon ahead of the boundary. Various deterministic and ensemble guidance indicates thunderstorms developing over the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley with subsequent movement into the mid MO Valley and perhaps upper Midwest Thursday night. Forecast vertical shear is on the margins of that which supports organized storm modes and an associated greater severe weather threat. Nonetheless, isolated severe weather appears likely, requiring at least low probabilities in the Day 3 time frame.
### Day 5/Friday
The Day 4 short-wave trough is expected to continue southeast through the Midwest with an associated surface low developing into the mid MS Valley. A trailing cool front will extend through the Ozark Plateau into the Southern Plains. Persistent low-level ridging from the lower Great Lakes into the TN Valley will limit the eastward extent of more robust air mass destabilization ahead of the surface low and along the track of the short-wave trough. It does appear that a corridor of stronger instability and modest vertical shear will develop from the mid MS Valley into the Ozark Plateau, where a few severe storms appear possible.
### Day 6-8/Saturday through Monday
The 00Z ensemble means remain in good agreement in depicting a stronger short-wave trough and attending belt of mid-level flow progressing along the international border from the Pacific northwest to the northern Plains. Some severe weather threat could materialize along an associated cold front over the northern Plains on Sunday and the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley on Monday.
..Mead.. 07/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, August 3
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, July 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, July 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, August 1 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, August 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, August 3 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270826 SPC AC 270826
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Thursday
A short-wave trough is forecast to move through the northern Plains and upper MS Valley, within the northeast periphery of an upper high centered over the southern Rockies. At the surface, a weak cold front is expected to follow the track of the upper-air system with moderate to strong instability expected by afternoon ahead of the boundary. Various deterministic and ensemble guidance indicates thunderstorms developing over the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley with subsequent movement into the mid MO Valley and perhaps upper Midwest Thursday night. Forecast vertical shear is on the margins of that which supports organized storm modes and an associated greater severe weather threat. Nonetheless, isolated severe weather appears likely, requiring at least low probabilities in the Day 3 time frame.
### Day 5/Friday
The Day 4 short-wave trough is expected to continue southeast through the Midwest with an associated surface low developing into the mid MS Valley. A trailing cool front will extend through the Ozark Plateau into the Southern Plains. Persistent low-level ridging from the lower Great Lakes into the TN Valley will limit the eastward extent of more robust air mass destabilization ahead of the surface low and along the track of the short-wave trough. It does appear that a corridor of stronger instability and modest vertical shear will develop from the mid MS Valley into the Ozark Plateau, where a few severe storms appear possible.
### Day 6-8/Saturday through Monday
The 00Z ensemble means remain in good agreement in depicting a stronger short-wave trough and attending belt of mid-level flow progressing along the international border from the Pacific northwest to the northern Plains. Some severe weather threat could materialize along an associated cold front over the northern Plains on Sunday and the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley on Monday.
..Mead.. 07/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, July 27
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 30%
- Tuesday, July 28
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 30%
- Wednesday, July 29
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Thursday, July 30
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, July 31
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, August 1
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, August 2
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, August 3
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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