Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, September 23
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this afternoon across parts of the southern Appalachians.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 230531
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this afternoon across parts of the southern Appalachians.
Southern Appalachians
At mid-levels, a low and an associated shortwave trough will move eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today. Ahead of the system, a surface trough will be in place from central Alabama northeastward into eastern Tennessee. Surface dewpoints near the trough will be in the mid to upper 60s F, which will help MLCAPE increase into the 1000 to 1500 J/kg by afternoon. As low-level convergence becomes focused this afternoon along and near the trough, scattered thunderstorms will form. RAP forecast soundings near the instability axis at 21Z have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range, with steep low-level lapse rates. This may support a potential for isolated severe gusts and hail with the stronger multicells. The severe threat should be concentrated around peak heating.
..Broyles/Thornton.. 09/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Thursday, September 24
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on tomorrow (Thursday).High
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 230544
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on tomorrow (Thursday).High
Synopsis
An upper trough will impinge on the Pacific Northwest while upper ridging persists over the Plains states and another upper trough meanders off of the Atlantic Coast tomorrow (Thursday). An embedded mid-level impulse will progress northeast from the Southwest to the central Rockies, promoting enough deep-layer ascent to support a wide swath of showers and scattered thunderstorms across portions of the Interior West to the central Plains. Seasonable low-level moisture with modestly cooler temperatures aloft may promote an instance of hail or strong wind gusts across the Southwest to the central and southern High Plains. However, an appreciable overlap of deep-layer shear and buoyancy will be lacking overall, precluding severe probabilities this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 09/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Friday, September 25
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 230709
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.
Synopsis
A mid-level ridge will flatten across the central U.S. as a mid-level trough progresses eastward across the northwestern CONUS, resulting in the ejection of multiple preceding mid-level impulses into the Plains states on Friday. One impulse will encourage surface lee trough strengthening over the southern High Plains, along with enough deep-layer ascent to encourage widespread shower and thunderstorm development. While a strong gust or sparse instance of hail cannot be ruled out, modest vertical wind shear and poor tropospheric lapse rates should limit the severe threat.
..Squitieri.. 09/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Saturday, September 26
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, September 26 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, September 27 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, September 28 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, September 29 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, September 30 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230824 SPC AC 230824
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper ridging over the Plains will continue to break down this weekend in favor of a more progressive upper-air pattern next week.At least one pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Plains and Mid- to Upper-MS Valley in the Days 6-8/Monday-Wednesday period.Deterministic medium-range guidance consensus depicts surface low development over the central and southern Plains in this time-frame, encouraging seasonable low-level moisture return in the process.
At the very least, moisture-driven buoyancy and subsequent scattered thunderstorm development should occur across the central and southern Plains into the Mid- to Upper MS Valley next Monday-Wednesday. However, vertical wind shear accompanying this pattern is still expected to be weak. While a localized severe threat may materialize at some point Monday-Wednesday, relevant details are too unclear to pinpoint with probabilities at this point, in agreement with the consensus of ML/AI calibrated guidance.
..Squitieri.. 09/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, September 27
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, September 26 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, September 27 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, September 28 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, September 29 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, September 30 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230824 SPC AC 230824
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper ridging over the Plains will continue to break down this weekend in favor of a more progressive upper-air pattern next week.At least one pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Plains and Mid- to Upper-MS Valley in the Days 6-8/Monday-Wednesday period.Deterministic medium-range guidance consensus depicts surface low development over the central and southern Plains in this time-frame, encouraging seasonable low-level moisture return in the process.
At the very least, moisture-driven buoyancy and subsequent scattered thunderstorm development should occur across the central and southern Plains into the Mid- to Upper MS Valley next Monday-Wednesday. However, vertical wind shear accompanying this pattern is still expected to be weak. While a localized severe threat may materialize at some point Monday-Wednesday, relevant details are too unclear to pinpoint with probabilities at this point, in agreement with the consensus of ML/AI calibrated guidance.
..Squitieri.. 09/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, September 28
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, September 26 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, September 27 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, September 28 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, September 29 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, September 30 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230824 SPC AC 230824
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper ridging over the Plains will continue to break down this weekend in favor of a more progressive upper-air pattern next week.At least one pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Plains and Mid- to Upper-MS Valley in the Days 6-8/Monday-Wednesday period.Deterministic medium-range guidance consensus depicts surface low development over the central and southern Plains in this time-frame, encouraging seasonable low-level moisture return in the process.
At the very least, moisture-driven buoyancy and subsequent scattered thunderstorm development should occur across the central and southern Plains into the Mid- to Upper MS Valley next Monday-Wednesday. However, vertical wind shear accompanying this pattern is still expected to be weak. While a localized severe threat may materialize at some point Monday-Wednesday, relevant details are too unclear to pinpoint with probabilities at this point, in agreement with the consensus of ML/AI calibrated guidance.
..Squitieri.. 09/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, September 29
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, September 26 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, September 27 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, September 28 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, September 29 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, September 30 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230824 SPC AC 230824
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper ridging over the Plains will continue to break down this weekend in favor of a more progressive upper-air pattern next week.At least one pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Plains and Mid- to Upper-MS Valley in the Days 6-8/Monday-Wednesday period.Deterministic medium-range guidance consensus depicts surface low development over the central and southern Plains in this time-frame, encouraging seasonable low-level moisture return in the process.
At the very least, moisture-driven buoyancy and subsequent scattered thunderstorm development should occur across the central and southern Plains into the Mid- to Upper MS Valley next Monday-Wednesday. However, vertical wind shear accompanying this pattern is still expected to be weak. While a localized severe threat may materialize at some point Monday-Wednesday, relevant details are too unclear to pinpoint with probabilities at this point, in agreement with the consensus of ML/AI calibrated guidance.
..Squitieri.. 09/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, September 30
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, September 26 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, September 27 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, September 28 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, September 29 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, September 30 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230824 SPC AC 230824
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper ridging over the Plains will continue to break down this weekend in favor of a more progressive upper-air pattern next week.At least one pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Plains and Mid- to Upper-MS Valley in the Days 6-8/Monday-Wednesday period.Deterministic medium-range guidance consensus depicts surface low development over the central and southern Plains in this time-frame, encouraging seasonable low-level moisture return in the process.
At the very least, moisture-driven buoyancy and subsequent scattered thunderstorm development should occur across the central and southern Plains into the Mid- to Upper MS Valley next Monday-Wednesday. However, vertical wind shear accompanying this pattern is still expected to be weak. While a localized severe threat may materialize at some point Monday-Wednesday, relevant details are too unclear to pinpoint with probabilities at this point, in agreement with the consensus of ML/AI calibrated guidance.
..Squitieri.. 09/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, September 23
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Thursday, September 24
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Friday, September 25
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Saturday, September 26
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, September 27
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, September 28
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, September 29
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, September 30
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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