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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Tuesday, May 12

Outlook Summary

Severe storms will be possible at least on an isolated basis across parts of the Florida Peninsula today, and potentially from southeast Kansas into parts of the Great Lakes late this afternoon and early evening.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 121627

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Valid 121630Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF FLORIDA…PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST…AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI

### SUMMARY

Severe storms will be possible at least on an isolated basis across parts of the Florida Peninsula today, and potentially from southeast Kansas into parts of the Great Lakes late this afternoon and early evening.

Florida

A very moist airmass is in place across the FL Peninsula today, with surface observations showing dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. Mesoanalysis estimates MLCAPE is at or above 1500 J/kg for much of the peninsula already. A shortwave trough is currently moving into the central Gulf Coast vicinity, with continued eastward/southeastward progress expected throughout the day. The prevailing buoyancy coupled with ascent attendant to this wave will result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms. Low-level flow is generally weak, but the shift from low-level easterly winds to moderate southwesterly aloft is supporting moderate deep-layer vertical shear. Some increased shear is possible in the vicinity of the east-coast sea-breeze, with the strongest storms anticipated near this boundary as a result. The overall expectation is for some organized multicells and a few supercells, posing a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail, particularly across the east-central portions of the peninsula.

Upper Midwest through the Mid MO Valley into southeast KS/northeast OK

Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through the Upper Midwest towards the Upper Great Lakes. Surface analysis places the low associated with this shortwave over the northern MN/WI border vicinity, with an attendant cold front extending back southwestward through northwest IA, southeast/south-central NE, and far northwest KS. A modest pre-frontal trough is in place just ahead of this cold front. The shortwave trough is forecast to continue eastward, while the cold front progresses eastward/southeastward. Northern portion of this front (closer to the surface low and parent shortwave) will make notably more eastward/southeastward progress than the southern/western portion, which will move more gradually southeastward.

Low-level moisture advection is anticipated ahead of the front, but with mid 50s dewpoints currently in central OK, the extent and quality of this moisture will likely be somewhat limited. Filtered heating and mixing could also reduce dewpoints. Even so, dewpoints will likely still reach at least the mid 40s across southern WI, gradually increasing into the mid 50s across southeast KS/southwest MO/northeast OK. This is expected to be enough moisture to support a narrow corridor of modest buoyancy. Strongest ascent will be near the surface low and shortwave trough across the Upper/Mid MS Valley, supporting higher storm coverage than areas farther southwest. A few high-based storms capable of wind damage and isolated hail are possible.

Farther southwest, lower storm coverage is expected, particularly from west-central IL into southeast KS. Thunderstorm chances across much of this area appear low enough to remove severe probabilities. The only exception is over the southeast KS/southwest MO vicinity. Here, greater low to mid-level moisture could still support a storm or two. Shear is strong enough to support hail with any storms that mature.

..Mosier/Chalmers.. 05/12/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, May 13

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern High Plains Wednesday afternoon and evening. Severe wind gusts are the primary hazard.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 121733

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern High Plains Wednesday afternoon and evening. Severe wind gusts are the primary hazard.

Northern Rockies and High Plains into northern Utah

A potent mid-level shortwave trough over western OR/WA will move east across the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains as a downstream ridge shifts east into the Upper Midwest by early Thursday morning. An attendant 80-90 kt 500 mb speed max will overspread ID/MT by peak heating as a cold front sweeps east across portions of the northern Rockies into the northern parts of the Great Basin. Forcing for ascent and diurnal destabilization will lead to scattered thunderstorms developing by mid afternoon. Forecast soundings show large surface temperature-dewpoint depressions and inverted-V thermodynamic profiles. Increasing flow through the cloud-bearing layer will result in relatively swift storm motions within pre-conditioned, dry-adiabatic 0-3 km lapse rates. Isolated to scattered storms developing over the higher terrain will move into the lower elevations and increase in coverage as a couple of linear clusters evolve towards early evening across central MT, and to a lesser degree, across eastern ID. The primary risk will be severe gusts (60-80 mph) accompanying the stronger cores and outflow. Farther south, very deeply mixed boundary layers evident in forecast soundings across northern UT into southern ID will favor severe gusts with the stronger cores.

Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians

An upper-level trough initially over the central Great Lakes will move east-southeastward to the Lower Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic states vicinity during the period. Strong cyclonically curved, 500-mb flow (50+ kt) will move through the base of the trough. A surface low will move eastward across southwestern Ontario as a cold front advances east-southeastward into the central Appalachians. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 50s F will contribute to weak instability as surface temperatures warm during the day. Increasing low-level convergence near the front will lead to scattered thunderstorm development, with additional storms forming due to topographic forcing in the central Appalachians. Ahead of the front, low to mid-level lapse rates are forecast to steepen by midday/early afternoon, lending the potential for several stronger thunderstorms capable of an isolated risk for wind damage and localized severe gusts.

TX Panhandle

Despite a 500-mb ridge overhead, very strong boundary layer heating may sufficiently erode convective inhibition and yield a couple of thunderstorms developing near the Caprock (22-00 UTC). Very steep lapse rates will support an isolated risk for hail/wind if sustained storms develop. This activity will likely dissipate by mid evening.

..Smith.. 05/12/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Thursday, May 14

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible on Thursday from parts of north-central Oklahoma into central Kansas and far southern Nebraska.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 120700

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA…CENTRAL KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible on Thursday from parts of north-central Oklahoma into central Kansas and far southern Nebraska.

North-central Oklahoma/Central Kansas/Far Southern Nebraska

At mid-levels, a shortwave ridge will move eastward into the Ozarks and mid to upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday, as a shortwave trough passes through the Great Plains. Ahead of the trough over the southern and central Plains, low-level moisture advection will take place. Surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the 60s F over much of Oklahoma northward into central and northern Kansas. Along this corridor, moderate instability is expected to develop by afternoon with MLCAPE peaking in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. In addition to the instability, forecast soundings have a capping inversion in the 850 and 700 mb layer. In the early evening, large-scale ascent will move across the central Plains, helping to weaken the cap for a few hours. If convective initiation can take place, an isolated severe storm would be possible. 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range along with steep mid-level lapse rates could be enough for hail and isolated severe wind gusts.

..Broyles.. 05/12/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Friday, May 15

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120857 SPC AC 120857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6

Over the weekend, mid-level flow is forecast to gradually become southwesterly across the central U.S. In response, low-level moisture advection will occur in the Great Plains. By Friday afternoon, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be in place from north Texas into Oklahoma, eastern Kansas and central to northern Missouri. Isolated severe storms will be possible within this airmass Friday afternoon and evening.

On Saturday, a dryline is forecast to develop from the far eastern Texas Panhandle northward into west-central Kansas. To the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon. As a mid-level shortwave trough approaches in the afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form to the east of the dryline from western Oklahoma into central and eastern Kansas. Supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts, and a tornado threat could develop.

A surge of deeper low-level moisture is expected across the southern and central Plains on Sunday, as an upper-level trough moves through the western U.S. In response, a north-to-south corridor of strong instability is forecast by afternoon from western Oklahoma north and northeastward into central and eastern Kansas. Scattered thunderstorms are expected within this unstable airmass during the afternoon and evening. MCS development may occur in the evening as a complex moves northeastward from the central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley. Supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts and a tornado threat will be possible.

Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8

An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the north-central U.S. on Monday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley, Ozarks and southern Plains. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to form ahead of the front in the afternoon. At this time, model forecasts suggest that instability and deep-layer shear will be strong enough for severe storms across a broad area. However, uncertainty exists concerning the location of the front Monday afternoon. A severe threat area may be needed in later Outlooks, once confidence increases concerning the timing of the front.

On Tuesday, the cold front is forecast to move southward into north Texas and the southern Ozarks. An isolated severe threat could develop ahead of the front in the afternoon and evening. However, uncertainty is substantial at this extended range.

..Broyles.. 05/12/2026

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Outlook for Saturday, May 16

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120857 SPC AC 120857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6

Over the weekend, mid-level flow is forecast to gradually become southwesterly across the central U.S. In response, low-level moisture advection will occur in the Great Plains. By Friday afternoon, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be in place from north Texas into Oklahoma, eastern Kansas and central to northern Missouri. Isolated severe storms will be possible within this airmass Friday afternoon and evening.

On Saturday, a dryline is forecast to develop from the far eastern Texas Panhandle northward into west-central Kansas. To the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon. As a mid-level shortwave trough approaches in the afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form to the east of the dryline from western Oklahoma into central and eastern Kansas. Supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts, and a tornado threat could develop.

A surge of deeper low-level moisture is expected across the southern and central Plains on Sunday, as an upper-level trough moves through the western U.S. In response, a north-to-south corridor of strong instability is forecast by afternoon from western Oklahoma north and northeastward into central and eastern Kansas. Scattered thunderstorms are expected within this unstable airmass during the afternoon and evening. MCS development may occur in the evening as a complex moves northeastward from the central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley. Supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts and a tornado threat will be possible.

Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8

An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the north-central U.S. on Monday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley, Ozarks and southern Plains. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to form ahead of the front in the afternoon. At this time, model forecasts suggest that instability and deep-layer shear will be strong enough for severe storms across a broad area. However, uncertainty exists concerning the location of the front Monday afternoon. A severe threat area may be needed in later Outlooks, once confidence increases concerning the timing of the front.

On Tuesday, the cold front is forecast to move southward into north Texas and the southern Ozarks. An isolated severe threat could develop ahead of the front in the afternoon and evening. However, uncertainty is substantial at this extended range.

..Broyles.. 05/12/2026

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Outlook for Sunday, May 17

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120857 SPC AC 120857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6

Over the weekend, mid-level flow is forecast to gradually become southwesterly across the central U.S. In response, low-level moisture advection will occur in the Great Plains. By Friday afternoon, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be in place from north Texas into Oklahoma, eastern Kansas and central to northern Missouri. Isolated severe storms will be possible within this airmass Friday afternoon and evening.

On Saturday, a dryline is forecast to develop from the far eastern Texas Panhandle northward into west-central Kansas. To the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon. As a mid-level shortwave trough approaches in the afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form to the east of the dryline from western Oklahoma into central and eastern Kansas. Supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts, and a tornado threat could develop.

A surge of deeper low-level moisture is expected across the southern and central Plains on Sunday, as an upper-level trough moves through the western U.S. In response, a north-to-south corridor of strong instability is forecast by afternoon from western Oklahoma north and northeastward into central and eastern Kansas. Scattered thunderstorms are expected within this unstable airmass during the afternoon and evening. MCS development may occur in the evening as a complex moves northeastward from the central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley. Supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts and a tornado threat will be possible.

Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8

An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the north-central U.S. on Monday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley, Ozarks and southern Plains. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to form ahead of the front in the afternoon. At this time, model forecasts suggest that instability and deep-layer shear will be strong enough for severe storms across a broad area. However, uncertainty exists concerning the location of the front Monday afternoon. A severe threat area may be needed in later Outlooks, once confidence increases concerning the timing of the front.

On Tuesday, the cold front is forecast to move southward into north Texas and the southern Ozarks. An isolated severe threat could develop ahead of the front in the afternoon and evening. However, uncertainty is substantial at this extended range.

..Broyles.. 05/12/2026

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Outlook for Monday, May 18

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120857 SPC AC 120857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6

Over the weekend, mid-level flow is forecast to gradually become southwesterly across the central U.S. In response, low-level moisture advection will occur in the Great Plains. By Friday afternoon, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be in place from north Texas into Oklahoma, eastern Kansas and central to northern Missouri. Isolated severe storms will be possible within this airmass Friday afternoon and evening.

On Saturday, a dryline is forecast to develop from the far eastern Texas Panhandle northward into west-central Kansas. To the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon. As a mid-level shortwave trough approaches in the afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form to the east of the dryline from western Oklahoma into central and eastern Kansas. Supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts, and a tornado threat could develop.

A surge of deeper low-level moisture is expected across the southern and central Plains on Sunday, as an upper-level trough moves through the western U.S. In response, a north-to-south corridor of strong instability is forecast by afternoon from western Oklahoma north and northeastward into central and eastern Kansas. Scattered thunderstorms are expected within this unstable airmass during the afternoon and evening. MCS development may occur in the evening as a complex moves northeastward from the central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley. Supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts and a tornado threat will be possible.

Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8

An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the north-central U.S. on Monday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley, Ozarks and southern Plains. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to form ahead of the front in the afternoon. At this time, model forecasts suggest that instability and deep-layer shear will be strong enough for severe storms across a broad area. However, uncertainty exists concerning the location of the front Monday afternoon. A severe threat area may be needed in later Outlooks, once confidence increases concerning the timing of the front.

On Tuesday, the cold front is forecast to move southward into north Texas and the southern Ozarks. An isolated severe threat could develop ahead of the front in the afternoon and evening. However, uncertainty is substantial at this extended range.

..Broyles.. 05/12/2026

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Outlook for Tuesday, May 19

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120857 SPC AC 120857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6

Over the weekend, mid-level flow is forecast to gradually become southwesterly across the central U.S. In response, low-level moisture advection will occur in the Great Plains. By Friday afternoon, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be in place from north Texas into Oklahoma, eastern Kansas and central to northern Missouri. Isolated severe storms will be possible within this airmass Friday afternoon and evening.

On Saturday, a dryline is forecast to develop from the far eastern Texas Panhandle northward into west-central Kansas. To the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon. As a mid-level shortwave trough approaches in the afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form to the east of the dryline from western Oklahoma into central and eastern Kansas. Supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts, and a tornado threat could develop.

A surge of deeper low-level moisture is expected across the southern and central Plains on Sunday, as an upper-level trough moves through the western U.S. In response, a north-to-south corridor of strong instability is forecast by afternoon from western Oklahoma north and northeastward into central and eastern Kansas. Scattered thunderstorms are expected within this unstable airmass during the afternoon and evening. MCS development may occur in the evening as a complex moves northeastward from the central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley. Supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts and a tornado threat will be possible.

Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8

An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the north-central U.S. on Monday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley, Ozarks and southern Plains. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to form ahead of the front in the afternoon. At this time, model forecasts suggest that instability and deep-layer shear will be strong enough for severe storms across a broad area. However, uncertainty exists concerning the location of the front Monday afternoon. A severe threat area may be needed in later Outlooks, once confidence increases concerning the timing of the front.

On Tuesday, the cold front is forecast to move southward into north Texas and the southern Ozarks. An isolated severe threat could develop ahead of the front in the afternoon and evening. However, uncertainty is substantial at this extended range.

..Broyles.. 05/12/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Tuesday, May 12

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 5%

Wednesday, May 13

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 15%

Thursday, May 14

ANY SEVERE: 5%

Friday, May 15

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Saturday, May 16

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Sunday, May 17

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Monday, May 18

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Tuesday, May 19

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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