Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, July 3
Outlook Summary
Scattered damaging gusts will continue across portions of the Mid Atlantic and the central/northern Plains. More isolated to scattered severe storms will also continue across portions of the High Plains to the northern Rockies.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 30%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 040050
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026
Valid 040100Z - 041200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA
### SUMMARY
Scattered damaging gusts will continue across portions of the Mid Atlantic and the central/northern Plains. More isolated to scattered severe storms will also continue across portions of the High Plains to the northern Rockies.
Discussion
Several clusters of widely scattered thunderstorms in many different regimes are ongoing across portions of the central and northern Plains into the Midwest and across the Mid-Atlantic. The greatest threat through the remainder of the evening will be for damaging wind, with a few instances of large hail and perhaps a tornado from the Plains to the Midwest.
Across the central/northern Plains, activity is mainly tied to lee troughing and broad ascent from the mid-level shortwave trough. A few embedded supercells will pose potential for large hail through the evening but the main threat is shifting to become damaging wind, with several clusters attempting to grow upscale. The more focused corridor of severe wind threat through the evening will likely extend from southeastern Nebraska into northern Kansas, where a more robust line has developed amid a strongly unstable air mass. Deep layer shear decreases with southward extent into Kansas, however, storms may be driven by cold pool dynamics south and eastward through the evening.
Across portions of southern South Dakota, western Nebraska, and eastern Colorado, a few more discrete supercell clusters are ongoing. This region will be where the greatest short term risk will be for large to very large hail, particularly across western Nebraska into southwestern South Dakota.
Across portions of the Midwest into the Great Lakes, a cluster of storms is moving across northern Illinois towards the Chicago Metro. This line is tracking along a MLCAPE gradient that extends across northern Illinois into northern Indiana/southern Michigan. Storms will likely advance eastward along this gradient through the evening, with potential for damaging winds.
Another robust line is moving eastward through New York City and northern New Jersey. This has produced a swath of measured severe wind and continues eastward towards the coast.
..Thornton.. 07/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Saturday, July 4
Outlook Summary
Clusters of storms may evolve across parts of the Allegheny Plateau into Mid Atlantic, and across the central Great Plains Saturday afternoon and evening, posing a risk for damaging wind gusts. Large hail is also possible across the Great Plains.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 30%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 031732
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC…AND OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Clusters of storms may evolve across parts of the Allegheny Plateau into Mid Atlantic, and across the central Great Plains Saturday afternoon and evening, posing a risk for damaging wind gusts. Large hail is also possible across the Great Plains.
Synopsis
An upper trough will be located over eastern Canada, with southern periphery sweeping across the Northeast with 30 kt midlevel westerlies extending as far south as PA/NJ. To the west, a weak upper trough will move across the northern and central Plains, with embedded disturbances related to thunderstorms into parts of the Midwest. Relatively cool temperatures aloft will exist across the Plains region, aiding destabilization.
At the surface, a trough will extend from the TX Panhandle into MO, IL, and IN, with a moist and unstable air mass nearby. Easterly winds north of this trough will maintain moderate moisture levels into the central High Plains. A surface trough will also deepen over the Northeast and Mid Atlantic during the day, providing a focus for storms during the afternoon from VA into PA/NJ.
PA…VA…MD…DE…NJ
Substantial moisture and instability will exist across the region, with tall CAPE profiles and 3000-4000 J/kg MUCAPE common with 70s F dewpoints and daytime heating. Storms may develop in several areas, including southern NY into PA and OH, and, within the trough VA into PA/NJ.
CAMs generally suggest scattered cells developing by mid afternoon over much of VA and into PA, MD, DE and NJ. Scattered wind gusts of 40-50 kt appear likely, with isolated stronger gusts. Weak westerlies aloft may support slow east/southeastward moving cells.
CO…NE…KS
Scattered storms are forecast to develop from southeast WY into the Front Range, as well as western NE, during the afternoon beneath cool temperatures aloft and where low-level easterlies will aid moisture advection into the heated air mass. Directional shear may favor a few cells capable of severe hail, including near the Colorado Springs area. Addition cells or clusters may spread southeastward across western NE and northwest KS, with damaging gusts possible.
A more substantial severe risk may develop into south-central KS and perhaps far northern OK late in the day. Here, locally larger SRH will exist north of a weak surface low. Instability will be large as temperatures warm into the 90s F and dewpoints remain in the upper 60s F. Veering wind with height and effective shear near 40 kt suggest a few supercells initially, with large hail and locally damaging wind gusts. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out. During the evening, CAMs suggest an MCS may develop, dropping southeastward across southern KS, including the Wichita area, and into northern OK. Damaging wind gusts would be the main concern.
Parts of Central MO
CAM signals are mixed with timing of convective systems near the surface trough. However, strong instability will be present across the entire region. Depending on later model output, the Slight Risk may need to be extended farther into MO/I-70 corridor as predictability increases.
..Jewell.. 07/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Sunday, July 5
Outlook Summary
Developing thunderstorm clusters may pose a risk for damaging wind gusts across parts of the Mid Atlantic and parts of the southern Great Plains Sunday afternoon and evening. Isolated severe storms may affect northern North Dakota late.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 031927
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
### SUMMARY
Developing thunderstorm clusters may pose a risk for damaging wind gusts across parts of the Mid Atlantic and parts of the southern Great Plains Sunday afternoon and evening. Isolated severe storms may affect northern North Dakota late.
Mid Atlantic States
Although wind fields aloft will weaken compared to the previous day as the upper trough lifts out of the Northeast, upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints will remain over much of the region. Afternoon storms are likely to develop from PA southward across the Appalachians, and these will move eastward into a zone of strong heating/steep low-level lapse rates into MD/VA. Gusty winds are likely, some damaging through the evening.
Northeast NM into northwest TX
East to southeast surface winds will prevail across the southern Plains on Sunday, which will aid westward moisture advection into NM. Shear will be weak, but southeastward-propagating clusters of storms appear likely late in the day and into the night as storms move into TX. Sporadic severe gusts may occur.
Northern ND
A substantial upper trough will move into the Canadian Prairies late on Sunday, with the base of this trough sweeping across MT and ND overnight. A cold front will develop into far eastern MT and western ND late in the day, proceeding toward the Red River by Monday morning. Forecast soundings show moderate instability developing, with veering winds with height and hodographs favorable for slow-moving supercells. Aiding any such development into the night will be a nocturnal low-level jet. Isolated large hail appears most likely.
..Jewell.. 07/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Monday, July 6
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, July 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, July 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, July 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, July 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, July 10 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030902 SPC AC 030902
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range guidance suggests that a modest mid-level ridge, along an axis from the eastern Great Basin into the Upper Midwest by early next week, may gradually become suppressed by a low-amplitude short wave trough emerging from the Great Basin by the middle of next week. It appears that this will occur as a much more substantive trough and embedded low, within the stronger westerlies confined to the higher latitudes, progress inland across British Columbia and the Canadian Rockies. This could be accompanied by some potential for organized severe thunderstorm development across parts of eastern Montana into the Dakotas by next Tuesday and/or Wednesday, but enough spread persists within latest model output to preclude 15 percent or greater severe probabilities at this time.
A preceding trough within the stronger westerlies is forecast to slowly progress east of the Canadian Prairies through Hudson Bay, Ontario, Quebec and the remainder of the eastern Canadian Provinces by late next week. It is possible that a corridor of boundary-layer moistening and destabilization ahead of an associated cold front could support increasing risk for thunderstorms across parts of the lower Great Lakes through New England by next Thursday into Friday. However, the extent of this potential, and the degree to which it could pose a risk for damaging wind gusts remains uncertain at this time.
Otherwise, severe potential in lower-latitudes, if any, will likely generally be associated with sub-synoptic developments yet to evolve and of rather low predictability at this time range.
..Kerr.. 07/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, July 7
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, July 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, July 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, July 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, July 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, July 10 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030902 SPC AC 030902
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range guidance suggests that a modest mid-level ridge, along an axis from the eastern Great Basin into the Upper Midwest by early next week, may gradually become suppressed by a low-amplitude short wave trough emerging from the Great Basin by the middle of next week. It appears that this will occur as a much more substantive trough and embedded low, within the stronger westerlies confined to the higher latitudes, progress inland across British Columbia and the Canadian Rockies. This could be accompanied by some potential for organized severe thunderstorm development across parts of eastern Montana into the Dakotas by next Tuesday and/or Wednesday, but enough spread persists within latest model output to preclude 15 percent or greater severe probabilities at this time.
A preceding trough within the stronger westerlies is forecast to slowly progress east of the Canadian Prairies through Hudson Bay, Ontario, Quebec and the remainder of the eastern Canadian Provinces by late next week. It is possible that a corridor of boundary-layer moistening and destabilization ahead of an associated cold front could support increasing risk for thunderstorms across parts of the lower Great Lakes through New England by next Thursday into Friday. However, the extent of this potential, and the degree to which it could pose a risk for damaging wind gusts remains uncertain at this time.
Otherwise, severe potential in lower-latitudes, if any, will likely generally be associated with sub-synoptic developments yet to evolve and of rather low predictability at this time range.
..Kerr.. 07/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, July 8
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, July 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, July 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, July 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, July 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, July 10 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030902 SPC AC 030902
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range guidance suggests that a modest mid-level ridge, along an axis from the eastern Great Basin into the Upper Midwest by early next week, may gradually become suppressed by a low-amplitude short wave trough emerging from the Great Basin by the middle of next week. It appears that this will occur as a much more substantive trough and embedded low, within the stronger westerlies confined to the higher latitudes, progress inland across British Columbia and the Canadian Rockies. This could be accompanied by some potential for organized severe thunderstorm development across parts of eastern Montana into the Dakotas by next Tuesday and/or Wednesday, but enough spread persists within latest model output to preclude 15 percent or greater severe probabilities at this time.
A preceding trough within the stronger westerlies is forecast to slowly progress east of the Canadian Prairies through Hudson Bay, Ontario, Quebec and the remainder of the eastern Canadian Provinces by late next week. It is possible that a corridor of boundary-layer moistening and destabilization ahead of an associated cold front could support increasing risk for thunderstorms across parts of the lower Great Lakes through New England by next Thursday into Friday. However, the extent of this potential, and the degree to which it could pose a risk for damaging wind gusts remains uncertain at this time.
Otherwise, severe potential in lower-latitudes, if any, will likely generally be associated with sub-synoptic developments yet to evolve and of rather low predictability at this time range.
..Kerr.. 07/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, July 9
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, July 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, July 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, July 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, July 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, July 10 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030902 SPC AC 030902
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range guidance suggests that a modest mid-level ridge, along an axis from the eastern Great Basin into the Upper Midwest by early next week, may gradually become suppressed by a low-amplitude short wave trough emerging from the Great Basin by the middle of next week. It appears that this will occur as a much more substantive trough and embedded low, within the stronger westerlies confined to the higher latitudes, progress inland across British Columbia and the Canadian Rockies. This could be accompanied by some potential for organized severe thunderstorm development across parts of eastern Montana into the Dakotas by next Tuesday and/or Wednesday, but enough spread persists within latest model output to preclude 15 percent or greater severe probabilities at this time.
A preceding trough within the stronger westerlies is forecast to slowly progress east of the Canadian Prairies through Hudson Bay, Ontario, Quebec and the remainder of the eastern Canadian Provinces by late next week. It is possible that a corridor of boundary-layer moistening and destabilization ahead of an associated cold front could support increasing risk for thunderstorms across parts of the lower Great Lakes through New England by next Thursday into Friday. However, the extent of this potential, and the degree to which it could pose a risk for damaging wind gusts remains uncertain at this time.
Otherwise, severe potential in lower-latitudes, if any, will likely generally be associated with sub-synoptic developments yet to evolve and of rather low predictability at this time range.
..Kerr.. 07/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, July 10
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, July 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, July 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, July 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, July 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, July 10 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030902 SPC AC 030902
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range guidance suggests that a modest mid-level ridge, along an axis from the eastern Great Basin into the Upper Midwest by early next week, may gradually become suppressed by a low-amplitude short wave trough emerging from the Great Basin by the middle of next week. It appears that this will occur as a much more substantive trough and embedded low, within the stronger westerlies confined to the higher latitudes, progress inland across British Columbia and the Canadian Rockies. This could be accompanied by some potential for organized severe thunderstorm development across parts of eastern Montana into the Dakotas by next Tuesday and/or Wednesday, but enough spread persists within latest model output to preclude 15 percent or greater severe probabilities at this time.
A preceding trough within the stronger westerlies is forecast to slowly progress east of the Canadian Prairies through Hudson Bay, Ontario, Quebec and the remainder of the eastern Canadian Provinces by late next week. It is possible that a corridor of boundary-layer moistening and destabilization ahead of an associated cold front could support increasing risk for thunderstorms across parts of the lower Great Lakes through New England by next Thursday into Friday. However, the extent of this potential, and the degree to which it could pose a risk for damaging wind gusts remains uncertain at this time.
Otherwise, severe potential in lower-latitudes, if any, will likely generally be associated with sub-synoptic developments yet to evolve and of rather low predictability at this time range.
..Kerr.. 07/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, July 3
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 30%
- Saturday, July 4
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 30%
- Sunday, July 5
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Monday, July 6
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, July 7
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, July 8
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, July 9
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, July 10
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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