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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Sunday, December 14
Monday, December 15
Tuesday, December 16
Wednesday, December 17
Thursday, December 18
Friday, December 19
Saturday, December 20
Sunday, December 21

Outlook for Sunday, December 14

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 141942

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

Valid 142000Z - 151200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

20z Update

The 10 percent thunder area was removed from South TX as the surface front has surged south of the area into northeast Mexico. A minor southward adjustment was also made across South Florida based on latest surface observations and radar trends. Isolated weak thunderstorms may persist the remainder of the afternoon from South FL into the Keys.

..Leitman.. 12/14/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 0954 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025/

Dry and stable conditions will prevail over most of the CONUS today, with a few small exceptions. A strong cold front sagging southward across TX might result in isolated afternoon thunderstorms over south TX. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms could affect south FL this afternoon as the same front weakens and approaches the area. And finally, a few lightning strikes could occur inland across western WA late tonight as a strong shortwave trough approaches. No severe storms are anticipated in any of these areas.

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

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Outlook for Monday, December 15

Outlook Summary

A few lightning flashes may occur in western Oregon and Washington tomorrow (Monday).

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 141705

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

A few lightning flashes may occur in western Oregon and Washington tomorrow (Monday).

Synopsis

A broad but low-amplitude upper ridge will become established east of the Rockies while a de-amplifying upper trough overspreads the northwestern U.S. tomorrow (Monday). Surface high pressure/colder air will prevail east of the MS River, while dry, statically stable air becomes predominant across the Plains into portions of the Interior West. Thunderstorm potential will therefore be limited across most of the U.S. One exception will be portions of the Pacific Northwest, where colder temperatures aloft will accompany the aforementioned de-amplifying upper trough. This will yield scant buoyancy, amid appreciable forcing for ascent, to support a few lightning flashes wherever deep-moist convection can develop. Furthermore, 50+ kt flow, within a few hundred m above ground level, will develop with the passage of the upper trough. If a stronger storm core can materialize, enough downward momentum transport may take place to support a few damaging gusts. However, confidence in this scenario is too low for the introduction of severe probabilities at this time.

..Squitieri.. 12/14/2025

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, December 16

Outlook Summary

A few lightning flashes may occur over parts of the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday/Tuesday evening, with isolated thunderstorms also possible over the Texas Coast Plain early Wednesday morning.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 141907

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

A few lightning flashes may occur over parts of the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday/Tuesday evening, with isolated thunderstorms also possible over the Texas Coast Plain early Wednesday morning.

Synopsis

A series of mid-level troughs will progress across the northern CONUS on Tuesday, resulting in pronounced surface troughs becoming established across the Pacific Northwest and the central CONUS. Cooler temperatures aloft will overspread the northern OR and WA coastline, resulting in scant buoyancy amid deep-layer ascent to support a few lightning flashes during the day Tuesday. A warm-air advection regime should develop along the western Gulf Coast in response to the glancing mid-level trough to the north, resulting in the onset of moisture return. Elevated buoyancy should develop within the warm-air advection regime after 06Z Wednesday morning, which may support isolated thunderstorm development across the TX Coastal Plain.

..Squitieri.. 12/14/2025

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, December 17

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Wednesday, December 17 potential too low
Day 5 Thursday, December 18 predictability too low
Day 6 Friday, December 19 predictability too low
Day 7 Saturday, December 20 predictability too low
Day 8 Sunday, December 21 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140956 SPC AC 140956

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

DISCUSSION

Northward moisture return is expected to persist through the period on D4/Wednesday as a strong surface low moves across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest and strong southerly flow expands across much of the warm sector. Despite the moisture advancing well inland, warm air aloft should limit strong thunderstorm potential on D4/Wednesday.

By D5/Thursday, weak to moderate instability is expected from East Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Strong shear will be present north of I-20 as a mid-level trough amplifies and a strong mid-level jet overspreads the warm sector. Despite the presence of strong shear and weak to moderate instability, updraft intensity may still struggle due to weak lapse rates/warm air aloft. Only weak height falls/cooling temperatures aloft are forecast south of the MO Bootheel. Thunderstorms are likely from the Mid-Mississippi Valley northward, where forcing will be stronger, but these regions will remain well north of the more favorable instability. Therefore, any severe weather threat would likely be marginal.

The cold front, associated with the storm system on D5/Thursday, will move off the East Coast early on D6/Friday. Some marginal severe weather may be possible Friday morning, but otherwise, severe weather potential will be low as high pressure builds east of the MS River in its wake.

By this weekend, return flow is anticipated across portions of the southern Plains, but destabilization remains uncertain. A zonal mid-level pattern with multiple embedded shortwave troughs is currently forecast during that timeframe which commonly results in considerably low predictability. Regardless of the exact outcome over the weekend, there is general consensus for zonal flow and a ridge building across the western CONUS and into the Plains. In general, this will likely not support a significant severe weather threat.

..Bentley.. 12/14/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Thursday, December 18

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Wednesday, December 17 potential too low
Day 5 Thursday, December 18 predictability too low
Day 6 Friday, December 19 predictability too low
Day 7 Saturday, December 20 predictability too low
Day 8 Sunday, December 21 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140956 SPC AC 140956

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

DISCUSSION

Northward moisture return is expected to persist through the period on D4/Wednesday as a strong surface low moves across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest and strong southerly flow expands across much of the warm sector. Despite the moisture advancing well inland, warm air aloft should limit strong thunderstorm potential on D4/Wednesday.

By D5/Thursday, weak to moderate instability is expected from East Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Strong shear will be present north of I-20 as a mid-level trough amplifies and a strong mid-level jet overspreads the warm sector. Despite the presence of strong shear and weak to moderate instability, updraft intensity may still struggle due to weak lapse rates/warm air aloft. Only weak height falls/cooling temperatures aloft are forecast south of the MO Bootheel. Thunderstorms are likely from the Mid-Mississippi Valley northward, where forcing will be stronger, but these regions will remain well north of the more favorable instability. Therefore, any severe weather threat would likely be marginal.

The cold front, associated with the storm system on D5/Thursday, will move off the East Coast early on D6/Friday. Some marginal severe weather may be possible Friday morning, but otherwise, severe weather potential will be low as high pressure builds east of the MS River in its wake.

By this weekend, return flow is anticipated across portions of the southern Plains, but destabilization remains uncertain. A zonal mid-level pattern with multiple embedded shortwave troughs is currently forecast during that timeframe which commonly results in considerably low predictability. Regardless of the exact outcome over the weekend, there is general consensus for zonal flow and a ridge building across the western CONUS and into the Plains. In general, this will likely not support a significant severe weather threat.

..Bentley.. 12/14/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Friday, December 19

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Wednesday, December 17 potential too low
Day 5 Thursday, December 18 predictability too low
Day 6 Friday, December 19 predictability too low
Day 7 Saturday, December 20 predictability too low
Day 8 Sunday, December 21 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140956 SPC AC 140956

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

DISCUSSION

Northward moisture return is expected to persist through the period on D4/Wednesday as a strong surface low moves across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest and strong southerly flow expands across much of the warm sector. Despite the moisture advancing well inland, warm air aloft should limit strong thunderstorm potential on D4/Wednesday.

By D5/Thursday, weak to moderate instability is expected from East Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Strong shear will be present north of I-20 as a mid-level trough amplifies and a strong mid-level jet overspreads the warm sector. Despite the presence of strong shear and weak to moderate instability, updraft intensity may still struggle due to weak lapse rates/warm air aloft. Only weak height falls/cooling temperatures aloft are forecast south of the MO Bootheel. Thunderstorms are likely from the Mid-Mississippi Valley northward, where forcing will be stronger, but these regions will remain well north of the more favorable instability. Therefore, any severe weather threat would likely be marginal.

The cold front, associated with the storm system on D5/Thursday, will move off the East Coast early on D6/Friday. Some marginal severe weather may be possible Friday morning, but otherwise, severe weather potential will be low as high pressure builds east of the MS River in its wake.

By this weekend, return flow is anticipated across portions of the southern Plains, but destabilization remains uncertain. A zonal mid-level pattern with multiple embedded shortwave troughs is currently forecast during that timeframe which commonly results in considerably low predictability. Regardless of the exact outcome over the weekend, there is general consensus for zonal flow and a ridge building across the western CONUS and into the Plains. In general, this will likely not support a significant severe weather threat.

..Bentley.. 12/14/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Saturday, December 20

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Wednesday, December 17 potential too low
Day 5 Thursday, December 18 predictability too low
Day 6 Friday, December 19 predictability too low
Day 7 Saturday, December 20 predictability too low
Day 8 Sunday, December 21 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140956 SPC AC 140956

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

DISCUSSION

Northward moisture return is expected to persist through the period on D4/Wednesday as a strong surface low moves across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest and strong southerly flow expands across much of the warm sector. Despite the moisture advancing well inland, warm air aloft should limit strong thunderstorm potential on D4/Wednesday.

By D5/Thursday, weak to moderate instability is expected from East Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Strong shear will be present north of I-20 as a mid-level trough amplifies and a strong mid-level jet overspreads the warm sector. Despite the presence of strong shear and weak to moderate instability, updraft intensity may still struggle due to weak lapse rates/warm air aloft. Only weak height falls/cooling temperatures aloft are forecast south of the MO Bootheel. Thunderstorms are likely from the Mid-Mississippi Valley northward, where forcing will be stronger, but these regions will remain well north of the more favorable instability. Therefore, any severe weather threat would likely be marginal.

The cold front, associated with the storm system on D5/Thursday, will move off the East Coast early on D6/Friday. Some marginal severe weather may be possible Friday morning, but otherwise, severe weather potential will be low as high pressure builds east of the MS River in its wake.

By this weekend, return flow is anticipated across portions of the southern Plains, but destabilization remains uncertain. A zonal mid-level pattern with multiple embedded shortwave troughs is currently forecast during that timeframe which commonly results in considerably low predictability. Regardless of the exact outcome over the weekend, there is general consensus for zonal flow and a ridge building across the western CONUS and into the Plains. In general, this will likely not support a significant severe weather threat.

..Bentley.. 12/14/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Sunday, December 21

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Wednesday, December 17 potential too low
Day 5 Thursday, December 18 predictability too low
Day 6 Friday, December 19 predictability too low
Day 7 Saturday, December 20 predictability too low
Day 8 Sunday, December 21 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140956 SPC AC 140956

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

DISCUSSION

Northward moisture return is expected to persist through the period on D4/Wednesday as a strong surface low moves across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest and strong southerly flow expands across much of the warm sector. Despite the moisture advancing well inland, warm air aloft should limit strong thunderstorm potential on D4/Wednesday.

By D5/Thursday, weak to moderate instability is expected from East Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Strong shear will be present north of I-20 as a mid-level trough amplifies and a strong mid-level jet overspreads the warm sector. Despite the presence of strong shear and weak to moderate instability, updraft intensity may still struggle due to weak lapse rates/warm air aloft. Only weak height falls/cooling temperatures aloft are forecast south of the MO Bootheel. Thunderstorms are likely from the Mid-Mississippi Valley northward, where forcing will be stronger, but these regions will remain well north of the more favorable instability. Therefore, any severe weather threat would likely be marginal.

The cold front, associated with the storm system on D5/Thursday, will move off the East Coast early on D6/Friday. Some marginal severe weather may be possible Friday morning, but otherwise, severe weather potential will be low as high pressure builds east of the MS River in its wake.

By this weekend, return flow is anticipated across portions of the southern Plains, but destabilization remains uncertain. A zonal mid-level pattern with multiple embedded shortwave troughs is currently forecast during that timeframe which commonly results in considerably low predictability. Regardless of the exact outcome over the weekend, there is general consensus for zonal flow and a ridge building across the western CONUS and into the Plains. In general, this will likely not support a significant severe weather threat.

..Bentley.. 12/14/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

National Risk Overview

Sunday, December 14
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: low
Monday, December 15
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: low
Tuesday, December 16
ANY SEVERE: low
Wednesday, December 17
ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, December 18
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, December 19
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, December 20
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, December 21
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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