Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, September 17
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly during late afternoon to mid-evening, across parts of the south-central High Plains. The most likely corridor is from the southern Colorado Front Range/Raton Mesa into the western Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, where large hail, severe gusts, and a brief tornado are possible.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 171946
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Valid 172000Z - 181200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE RATON MESA AND SOUTHERN COLORADO FRONT RANGE INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly during late afternoon to mid-evening, across parts of the south-central High Plains. The most likely corridor is from the southern Colorado Front Range/Raton Mesa into the western Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, where large hail, severe gusts, and a brief tornado are possible.
20z Update
The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor adjustments made to reflect recent convective trends. Latest GOES imagery and regional radar mosaics show convective initiation underway across the TX Panhandle into western OK along a diffuse frontal zone. This activity will likely pose some hail/wind threat as it spreads northeast into a well-mixed, but modestly sheared environment. Further west across the High Plains, low-level winds are becoming easterly as anticipated by morning guidance. This increasing upslope flow regime will promote thunderstorm development by early evening as well as aid in convective organization via elongation of low/mid-level hodographs. Recent CAM guidance continues to depict the best signal for robust convection across southeast CO into adjacent portions of NM/OK/TX within the Slight risk corridor. See the previous discussion below and MCD #2091 for additional details.
..Moore.. 09/17/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1140 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025/
Front Range/Raton Mesa and south-central High Plains… A prominent upper trough will continue to pivot over the northern High Plains with a base-embedded shortwave trough/speed max spreading southeastward over Colorado toward the south-central High Plains by tonight. A related front will continue to settle south-southeastward with moist low-level upslope flow in its wake across southeast Colorado/Raton Mesa vicinity and the nearby south-central High Plains. Buoyancy will be adequate for some supercells as flow aloft strengthens and low-level winds take on more of an easterly component. Bouts of large hail can be expected, with severe-caliber winds also possible, particularly with the southernmost development toward the Panhandles. A brief/low-end tornado risk may also exist near the boundary and within the immediate post-frontal environment.
South-central/eastern Kansas to Iowa/Missouri
MCV/modest-strength cyclonic flow aloft and zones of moderate destabilization to the east of the residual early day convection and cloud debris seems likely to influence a redevelopment and intensification of convection this afternoon. Even with some MCV-related flow enhancement, deep-layer shear will remain weak overall, but some episodic severe storms could occur with locally damaging winds and some hail.
Southern Louisiana
As a cumulus field continues to develop/expand late this morning per visible satellite imagery, scattered thunderstorm development is likely this afternoon. As the boundary layer warms and destabilizes, thermodynamic profiles will become favorable for the possibility of some localized downbursts.
Southern Minnesota/northern Wisconsin
A few strong storms and perhaps a locally severe storm or two could occur this afternoon into evening as the upper trough interfaces with the front and moderately unstable environment, especially with eastward extent away from residual early day cloud cover/scattered precipitation. However, very weak deep tropospheric winds should keep any pulse-type severe potential rather marginal/localized overall.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Thursday, September 18
Outlook Summary
Strong to locally severe storms are possible from parts of the Midwest into the east-central and southern Plains on Thursday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 171730
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL IA INTO WESTERN MO…EASTERN KS…NORTHWEST AR…OK…AND THE SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE
### SUMMARY
Strong to locally severe storms are possible from parts of the Midwest into the east-central and southern Plains on Thursday.
Synopsis
Little change to the overall pattern is expected on Thursday, with a mid/upper-level trough expected to persist over the northern/central Plains. Within the broader trough, distinct mid/upper-level lows initially over northeast MT and central SD may begin to consolidate by Thursday night, as a convectively enhanced midlevel shortwave moves through the base of the trough from the central Plains into the lower MO Valley vicinity. Farther west, a mid/upper-level trough related to the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Mario will move across parts of southern/central CA through the period.
Parts of the east-central and southern Plains into the Ozarks and Upper Midwest
A weak surface low is forecast to move eastward across eastern SD on Thursday. A weak surface front will extend southward from the low across western MN/IA into eastern KS, and then southwestward into parts of OK and the TX Panhandle. The south and east extent of this front will be influenced by rather extensive early-morning convection. To the east of any remnant morning convection and cloud debris, moderate destabilization and steepening of low-level lapse rates will be possible from northeast OK into parts of MO/IA. Scattered storm development is expected during the afternoon. Deep-layer shear will remain rather weak, but a few weakly organized cells or clusters could evolve and pose some threat of locally damaging wind.
Farther southwest along the trailing portion of the front, deep-layer shear will be somewhat stronger across parts of OK into the TX Panhandle, as midlevel winds veer to west-northwesterly. Storm coverage with southwest extent is rather uncertain, with the primary midlevel shortwave trough becoming increasingly removed from the region, but an isolated organized cell or two may evolve and pose some threat for hail and/or strong gusts.
Southwest
Increasing moisture and the approaching mid/upper-level trough will support at least scattered storms across parts of southern/central AZ into southeast CA and far southern NV. Some modest enhancement to midlevel flow may overspread this region during the afternoon, but deep-layer shear is currently expected to remain rather weak. As a result, storms may remain disorganized, but localized downbursts cannot be ruled out, especially where stronger pre-storm heating occurs.
..Dean.. 09/17/2025
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Friday, September 19
Outlook Summary
Organized severe storms are not currently expected on Friday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 171909
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Organized severe storms are not currently expected on Friday.
Synopsis
A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to remain in place across the central/northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday, as an embedded midlevel cyclone moves eastward across SD. Scattered diurnal storm development will be possible from the ArkLaTex into much of the MS Valley, within a relatively moist and moderately unstable environment. With weak deep-layer flow/shear expected across this region, the threat for organized severe storms currently appears low. Late in the period, elevated storms may develop within a low-level warm advection regime across parts of KS/OK.
Farther west, a midlevel shortwave trough is forecast to move from central CA toward the Great Basin, while a broader mid/upper-level trough remains offshore of southern CA. This pattern will favor potential for scattered storms across parts of the Southwest, with at least isolated storm development possible from central/northern CA into adjacent parts of NV.
..Dean.. 09/17/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Saturday, September 20
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, September 20 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, September 21 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, September 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, September 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, September 24 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170759 SPC AC 170759
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range guidance generally indicates low-amplitude/weak upper troughing will persist across portions of the central U.S. through the weekend. By early next week, large spread exists between the control members of the GFS and ECMWF and how these models handle the evolution of a deepening upper trough moving out of the Rockies and into the Plains/Midwest around Days 6-8/Mon-Wed. Ensemble mean 500 mb forecasts are in better alignment, indicating a stronger large-scale trough will emerge over the Plains and MS Valley late in the period, bringing a stronger autumn cold front south/southeast across much of the central U.S. This could bring some increasing severe potential to portions of the Plains MS Valley during the second half of the forecast period, but given aforementioned uncertainty/large spread, it is unclear which days/locations may experience any increasing risk.
..Leitman.. 09/17/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, September 21
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, September 20 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, September 21 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, September 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, September 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, September 24 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170759 SPC AC 170759
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range guidance generally indicates low-amplitude/weak upper troughing will persist across portions of the central U.S. through the weekend. By early next week, large spread exists between the control members of the GFS and ECMWF and how these models handle the evolution of a deepening upper trough moving out of the Rockies and into the Plains/Midwest around Days 6-8/Mon-Wed. Ensemble mean 500 mb forecasts are in better alignment, indicating a stronger large-scale trough will emerge over the Plains and MS Valley late in the period, bringing a stronger autumn cold front south/southeast across much of the central U.S. This could bring some increasing severe potential to portions of the Plains MS Valley during the second half of the forecast period, but given aforementioned uncertainty/large spread, it is unclear which days/locations may experience any increasing risk.
..Leitman.. 09/17/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, September 22
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, September 20 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, September 21 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, September 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, September 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, September 24 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170759 SPC AC 170759
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range guidance generally indicates low-amplitude/weak upper troughing will persist across portions of the central U.S. through the weekend. By early next week, large spread exists between the control members of the GFS and ECMWF and how these models handle the evolution of a deepening upper trough moving out of the Rockies and into the Plains/Midwest around Days 6-8/Mon-Wed. Ensemble mean 500 mb forecasts are in better alignment, indicating a stronger large-scale trough will emerge over the Plains and MS Valley late in the period, bringing a stronger autumn cold front south/southeast across much of the central U.S. This could bring some increasing severe potential to portions of the Plains MS Valley during the second half of the forecast period, but given aforementioned uncertainty/large spread, it is unclear which days/locations may experience any increasing risk.
..Leitman.. 09/17/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, September 23
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, September 20 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, September 21 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, September 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, September 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, September 24 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170759 SPC AC 170759
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range guidance generally indicates low-amplitude/weak upper troughing will persist across portions of the central U.S. through the weekend. By early next week, large spread exists between the control members of the GFS and ECMWF and how these models handle the evolution of a deepening upper trough moving out of the Rockies and into the Plains/Midwest around Days 6-8/Mon-Wed. Ensemble mean 500 mb forecasts are in better alignment, indicating a stronger large-scale trough will emerge over the Plains and MS Valley late in the period, bringing a stronger autumn cold front south/southeast across much of the central U.S. This could bring some increasing severe potential to portions of the Plains MS Valley during the second half of the forecast period, but given aforementioned uncertainty/large spread, it is unclear which days/locations may experience any increasing risk.
..Leitman.. 09/17/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, September 24
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, September 20 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, September 21 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, September 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, September 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, September 24 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170759 SPC AC 170759
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range guidance generally indicates low-amplitude/weak upper troughing will persist across portions of the central U.S. through the weekend. By early next week, large spread exists between the control members of the GFS and ECMWF and how these models handle the evolution of a deepening upper trough moving out of the Rockies and into the Plains/Midwest around Days 6-8/Mon-Wed. Ensemble mean 500 mb forecasts are in better alignment, indicating a stronger large-scale trough will emerge over the Plains and MS Valley late in the period, bringing a stronger autumn cold front south/southeast across much of the central U.S. This could bring some increasing severe potential to portions of the Plains MS Valley during the second half of the forecast period, but given aforementioned uncertainty/large spread, it is unclear which days/locations may experience any increasing risk.
..Leitman.. 09/17/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, September 17
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 5%
- Thursday, September 18
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Friday, September 19
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Saturday, September 20
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, September 21
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, September 22
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, September 23
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, September 24
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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