Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, June 22
Outlook Summary
Supercells and multicell clusters will continue to produce significant-severe wind/hail across the central High Plains this evening. Severe gusts and widn damage may accompany storms near the Mid-Atlantic coast through late evening. Tonight, isolated severe storms may occur across the southern Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 230100
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026
Valid 230100Z - 231200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC
### SUMMARY
Supercells and multicell clusters will continue to produce significant-severe wind/hail across the central High Plains this evening. Severe gusts and widn damage may accompany storms near the Mid-Atlantic coast through late evening. Tonight, isolated severe storms may occur across the southern Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley.
Synopsis
A mid-level trough will advance toward the Mid-Atlantic Seaboard while a pronounced mid-level impulse ejects into the central/northern High Plains. At the surface, a trough will impinge on the East Coast while ongoing/developing storms continue to progress along a baroclinic boundary, from the Mid-MS Valley northwestward along the High Plains. Strong shear and buoyancy in both of these regimes will continue to foster severe potential into the evening hours.
Mid Atlantic into the Southeast
A well defined QLCS is tracking across the Mid-Atlantic, with more sporadic pulse-cellular/multicellular storms progressing over the Southeast. The QLCS will move offshore over the next hour, accompanied by a damaging gust threat. Across the Southeast, multicellular storms supported by the remnants of daytime heating or localized lift along MCVs appear to be on the wane. Nonetheless, 1000-2000 J/kg remnant MLCAPE will support localized wet downburst potential with some of the stronger storms over the next couple of hours. A brief tornado also cannot be ruled out with MCV storms across the TN Valley.
High Plains
Supercells remain in progress across the central to northern High Plains, where 2-3 inch in diameter hail and gusts well exceeding 75 mph have occurred. 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE, driven by 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates, precede many of these supercells, so a severe wind/hail threat will continue with these storms for at least a few more hours. A tornado is also possible for supercells that remain inflow dominant. There is some chance that supercells could grow upscale into an MCS, which would traverse a surface boundary across the southern High Plains into the Southern Plains. Confidence in this scenario is quite low. However, should this evolution occur, severe gusts would be possible.
Southern Plains into the Middle MS Valley
Thunderstorms are initiating along a surface boundary, draped from the TX Panhandle into central MS. 2000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE and 30-50 kts of effective bulk shear overspreads this boundary, which would promote multicells and supercells with a severe wind/hail threat wherever storms mature. Nonetheless, forcing along this boundary is weak, so the severe threat should remain isolated through tonight.
..Squitieri.. 06/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Tuesday, June 23
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe storms capable of hail in excess of two inches and wind gusts greater than 75 mph are expected from the central High Plains into parts of the central and southern Plains Tuesday and Tuesday night. Isolated severe storms capable of mainly hail are possible across the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated severe storms capable of damaging winds also appear possible from the Delmarva into eastern North Carolina.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 221722
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe storms capable of hail in excess of two inches and wind gusts greater than 75 mph are expected from the central High Plains into parts of the central and southern Plains Tuesday and Tuesday night. Isolated severe storms capable of mainly hail are possible across the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated severe storms capable of damaging winds also appear possible from the Delmarva into eastern North Carolina.
Synopsis
Within the base of an upper low centered over Saskatchewan and Manitoba, a vorticity lobe will progress through the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley. That disturbance will be attended by a belt of 40-50 kt flow in the mid levels, which will overspread the northern and central Plains. Elsewhere, an apparent MCV initially over western parts of VA and NC at 12Z Tuesday will progress through the Piedmont and Coastal Plain over the course of the day.
At the surface, an area of low pressure is expected to slowly move east along the southern Manitoba, northeast ND, northwest MN border region with an associated cold front trailing southwest into the central High Plains. Along the East Coast, an area of low pressure is forecast to track through VA into the Tidewater region with a trailing cold front moving through the Southeast.
### Central High Plains into the Central and Southern Plains
The 12Z parameterized and convection-allowing models offer various scenarios in regard to the location of ongoing storms Tuesday morning, which in turn affects the evolution of diurnally enhanced storm development by afternoon, and the subsequent track of a severe MCS Tuesday night. Despite these differences, an EML will remain intact across the High Plains, which coupled with a moist, upslope regime in the low levels, will support a moderately unstable air mass by afternoon. Isolated to widely scattered storms appear possible from the vicinity of the Cheyenne Ridge south along the CO Front Range with 40-50+ kt of effective bulk shear favoring supercells capable of large to very large hail. Additional severe storms appear possible during the afternoon across lower elevations of the central and southern Plains, the details of which remain highly uncertain.
As mentioned above, the models are in generally good agreement in depicting the upscale growth of the afternoon storms into a southeastward-moving MCS capable of damaging wind swaths and significant gusts in excess of 75 mph. However, uncertainty in the specific track of the MCS precludes the introduction of higher wind probabilities and a categorical upgrade to a level 3/Enhanced Risk.
### Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest
Multiple clusters of mainly elevated thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Tuesday morning from the eastern Dakotas into northern NE, within a zone of forcing for ascent preceding the disturbance mentioned in the synopsis. Modest instability coupled with 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear may support some transient supercell structures capable of large hail.
Additional surface-based storms appear possible by afternoon in the vicinity of the surface front over the Red River Valley. Some uncertainty still exists in the degree of air mass destabilization owing to the potential for lingering clouds in the wake of the early-day storms. Where greater destabilization can occur, the environment will support mainly a large hail threat. Should stronger heating and resultant steep, low-level lapse rates develop in the vicinity of the front, a brief tornado or two will be possible owing to a local maximum in vertical vorticity. Confidence in that scenario is currently too low to include a 2% probability in this forecast.
### Delmarva into eastern North Carolina
A narrow corridor of severe-weather potential may materialize Tuesday afternoon ahead of the surface low and surface front moving through the area. A slight enhancement of mid-level flow (and resultant vertical shear) will coincide with a moist and moderately unstable air mass to support some organization with the primary hazard being locally damaging wind gusts. Some tornado threat may materialize ahead of the surface low, where backed near-surface winds enhance low-level shear. A 2% tornado probability may need to be included in subsequent Day 1 outlooks should the current model signal persist.
..Mead.. 06/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Wednesday, June 24
Outlook Summary
Widely scattered severe storms are possible across the central High Plains on Wednesday with a threat for large to very large hail. More isolated severe storms are possible across portions of the upper Midwest.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 221930
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Widely scattered severe storms are possible across the central High Plains on Wednesday with a threat for large to very large hail. More isolated severe storms are possible across portions of the upper Midwest.
Synopsis
A short-wave trough is forecast to move from the upper MS Valley into the upper Great Lakes ahead of a sheared vorticity maximum translating from the northern Rockies into the northern and central Plains. Those features will be associated with a belt of enhanced mid-level flow extending from the northern and central High Plains into the Great Lakes. At the surface, an area of low pressure is forecast to weaken over the upper Midwest, along a cold front advancing through that area. The western extension of that boundary will become increasingly less defined with southwestward extent into the central and southern Plains.
### Central and Southern High Plains to the lower Mississippi Valley
As was the case for the Day 2 (Tuesday and Tuesday night) forecast period, there is considerable spread in 12Z model guidance in the location of any ongoing MCS(s) at 12Z Wednesday. The location of those features will dictate the specific location of any more concentrated damaging-wind risk later Wednesday, especially from the Ozark Plateau into lower MS Valley. There is higher confidence in widely scattered afternoon storm development across the central and perhaps southern High Plains within a low-level, upslope regime. The combination of moderate instability and 35-50 kt of deep-layer shear will support supercells capable of large to very large hail as the primary hazard.
There is some model signal that the afternoon High Plains storms will grow upscale into an MCS across lower elevations of the central Plains Wednesday night with an associated damaging-wind risk. Confidence in that scenario is currently too low to extend the 15% probability contour farther east at this time.
### Upper Midwest
Lingering clouds associated with early-day storms may limit air mass destabilization into afternoon. However, where cloud breaks can occur, the combination of cooling temperatures aloft and modest boundary-layer moisture content will support moderate afternoon instability. Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon in the vicinity of the surface low and frontal boundary, and within the belt of stronger mid-level flow, suggesting some potential for large hail with the strongest updrafts.
..Mead.. 06/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Thursday, June 25
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, June 25 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Friday, June 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, June 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, June 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, June 29 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220855 SPC AC 220855
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Thursday - Central/Northern High Plains
Upslope flow will strengthen across the central/northern High Plains on Thursday as a surface low deepens across the southern High Plains. This, combined with a passing mid-level jet streak and shortwave trough, should result in scattered storm development across the High Plains. The most likely corridor will exist from northern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and far southwestern South Dakota where the stronger mid-level flow/forcing overspreads the unstable warm sector.
Beyond Day 4 there will likely be multiple days with eventual severe weather probabilities given the amplifying trough across the Northwest and moderate mid-level flow overspreading the northern Plains where instability will also be quite strong. However, at this time, there is considerable uncertainty with the timing/location of each of the mid-level shortwave troughs, and for when the core of the jet streak associated with the Northwest CONUS low ejects into the Plains.
Due to these uncertainties, no probabilities have been added beyond Day 4, but eventual probabilities are anticipated in later outlooks.
..Bentley.. 06/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, June 26
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, June 25 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Friday, June 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, June 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, June 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, June 29 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220855 SPC AC 220855
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Thursday - Central/Northern High Plains
Upslope flow will strengthen across the central/northern High Plains on Thursday as a surface low deepens across the southern High Plains. This, combined with a passing mid-level jet streak and shortwave trough, should result in scattered storm development across the High Plains. The most likely corridor will exist from northern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and far southwestern South Dakota where the stronger mid-level flow/forcing overspreads the unstable warm sector.
Beyond Day 4 there will likely be multiple days with eventual severe weather probabilities given the amplifying trough across the Northwest and moderate mid-level flow overspreading the northern Plains where instability will also be quite strong. However, at this time, there is considerable uncertainty with the timing/location of each of the mid-level shortwave troughs, and for when the core of the jet streak associated with the Northwest CONUS low ejects into the Plains.
Due to these uncertainties, no probabilities have been added beyond Day 4, but eventual probabilities are anticipated in later outlooks.
..Bentley.. 06/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, June 27
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, June 25 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Friday, June 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, June 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, June 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, June 29 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220855 SPC AC 220855
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Thursday - Central/Northern High Plains
Upslope flow will strengthen across the central/northern High Plains on Thursday as a surface low deepens across the southern High Plains. This, combined with a passing mid-level jet streak and shortwave trough, should result in scattered storm development across the High Plains. The most likely corridor will exist from northern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and far southwestern South Dakota where the stronger mid-level flow/forcing overspreads the unstable warm sector.
Beyond Day 4 there will likely be multiple days with eventual severe weather probabilities given the amplifying trough across the Northwest and moderate mid-level flow overspreading the northern Plains where instability will also be quite strong. However, at this time, there is considerable uncertainty with the timing/location of each of the mid-level shortwave troughs, and for when the core of the jet streak associated with the Northwest CONUS low ejects into the Plains.
Due to these uncertainties, no probabilities have been added beyond Day 4, but eventual probabilities are anticipated in later outlooks.
..Bentley.. 06/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, June 28
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, June 25 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Friday, June 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, June 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, June 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, June 29 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220855 SPC AC 220855
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Thursday - Central/Northern High Plains
Upslope flow will strengthen across the central/northern High Plains on Thursday as a surface low deepens across the southern High Plains. This, combined with a passing mid-level jet streak and shortwave trough, should result in scattered storm development across the High Plains. The most likely corridor will exist from northern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and far southwestern South Dakota where the stronger mid-level flow/forcing overspreads the unstable warm sector.
Beyond Day 4 there will likely be multiple days with eventual severe weather probabilities given the amplifying trough across the Northwest and moderate mid-level flow overspreading the northern Plains where instability will also be quite strong. However, at this time, there is considerable uncertainty with the timing/location of each of the mid-level shortwave troughs, and for when the core of the jet streak associated with the Northwest CONUS low ejects into the Plains.
Due to these uncertainties, no probabilities have been added beyond Day 4, but eventual probabilities are anticipated in later outlooks.
..Bentley.. 06/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, June 29
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, June 25 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Friday, June 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, June 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, June 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, June 29 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220855 SPC AC 220855
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Thursday - Central/Northern High Plains
Upslope flow will strengthen across the central/northern High Plains on Thursday as a surface low deepens across the southern High Plains. This, combined with a passing mid-level jet streak and shortwave trough, should result in scattered storm development across the High Plains. The most likely corridor will exist from northern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and far southwestern South Dakota where the stronger mid-level flow/forcing overspreads the unstable warm sector.
Beyond Day 4 there will likely be multiple days with eventual severe weather probabilities given the amplifying trough across the Northwest and moderate mid-level flow overspreading the northern Plains where instability will also be quite strong. However, at this time, there is considerable uncertainty with the timing/location of each of the mid-level shortwave troughs, and for when the core of the jet streak associated with the Northwest CONUS low ejects into the Plains.
Due to these uncertainties, no probabilities have been added beyond Day 4, but eventual probabilities are anticipated in later outlooks.
..Bentley.. 06/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, June 22
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Tuesday, June 23
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Wednesday, June 24
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Thursday, June 25
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Friday, June 26
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, June 27
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, June 28
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, June 29
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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