Severe Weather Outlook

show me my personal outlook →

National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Wednesday, April 15

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for large to very large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes will be possible across parts of the southern/central Plains into the Midwest/Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes this afternoon and evening.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 151955

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Valid 152000Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for large to very large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes will be possible across parts of the southern/central Plains into the Midwest/Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes this afternoon and evening.

20Z Update

### Mid MS Valley through the Ozarks into the Southern Plains

Recent surface analysis places a low in the NE/IA/MO border intersection vicinity, with a dry line extending southwestward from this low through eastern KS, western OK, and northwest TX. As mentioned in MCD #448, the elevated supercell ongoing across central IA could begin to interact with an environment more supportive of surface-based storms. If a transition to surface-based is realized, an increased potential for damaging gusts and a tornado will exist. New development is also beginning across central IA, along the outflow extending southwestward for this supercell. Hail remains the primary risk across the region, both with the ongoing supercell and any new development along its outflow.

Increasing thunderstorm coverage is still expected tonight along the dryline as it shifts eastward, beginning across northwest TX and central OK now before expanding northward into MO, and potentially southwestward into more of southwest TX later. Large hail remains the primary threat with this initially more cellular activity. Some very large hail (i.e. 2"+ in diameter) is possible. Over time, storm interactions and/or upscale growth is anticipated, with a trend towards a threat for more damaging gusts. Tornado threat remains low, largely due weakness in the low to mid-level flow and convective mode issues. However, some modest strengthening of the low-level flow should exist this afternoon and evening from eastern OK into the mid MS Valley, supporting a threat for a few tornadoes with both supercells and embedded within clusters.

OH Valley

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #120 is currently ongoing from far southeast Lower MI across northern OH into far northwest PA. Here, a mix of clusters and supercells pose a threat for scattered damaging winds and large hail as they spread quickly east-northeastward this afternoon and evening. A tornado or two is also possible.

..Mosier.. 04/15/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026/

Synopsis

Severe potential across the broad warm sector will be complicated by ongoing thunderstorms/MCVs and associated cloud cover. A neutral to positively tilted upper trough will eject northeastward across the southern/central Plains today, with a broad zone of enhanced mid-level southwesterly winds extending over much of TX/OK into the Midwest/OH Valley and Great Lakes. At the surface, a weak low over southeast NE late this morning is forecast to develop slowly northeastward across IA through the afternoon and evening, with a quasi-stationary front extending northeastward from this low towards southern WI/Lower MI. A dryline extends southward across KS/OK into west TX. Multiple MCVs related to ongoing/earlier convection are also noted in recent visible satellite/radar imagery, and these features may aid additional convective development this afternoon.

Iowa into Missouri

Forcing for ascent associated with the ejecting upper trough will overspread the front draped across IA this afternoon. Ongoing supercell in western IA and cloudiness near the front late this morning cast some uncertainty on the degree of destabilization that will occur this afternoon, and the overall intensity of convection. Still, expectations are for additional robust thunderstorms to eventually develop by 19-21Z along/near the front in IA, with steep mid-level lapse rates noted on the observed 12Z TOP sounding supporting moderate to locally strong MLCAPE even if clouds/precipitation hinder daytime heating to some extent. Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings show elongated/nearly straight hodographs at mid/upper levels and 50+ kt of deep-layer shear, which will be favorable for upper-level/anvil venting and hail production with any supercells that form. Large to very large hail will be a concern with initially discrete convection. But, some tendency for clustering and movement north of the surface front casts considerable uncertainty on the wind/tornado potential. Even so, some chance for a few tornadoes and scattered damaging winds may exist along/south of the front across IA into MO with any convection that can develop east of the dryline.

Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid Mississippi Valley

A seasonably moist low-level airmass remains in place across the southern Plains into the Ozarks and mid MS Valley, with observed 12Z soundings from FWD/OUN/SGF indicating mean mixing ratios ranging 12-13.6 g/kg. However, even with steep mid-level lapse rates noted across TX/OK, profiles are fairly saturated at mid/upper levels, and plentiful cloud cover is present in recent visible satellite imagery across these regions. It still appears likely that surface-based thunderstorms will develop this afternoon (around 19-21Z) along/east of the dryline as MLCIN gradually erodes ahead of the ejecting upper trough. But, overall evolution remains somewhat unclear, with potential for messy storm modes/interactions fairly early in the convective life cycle given a large degree of boundary-parallel flow in low/mid levels. Initial supercells should pose a threat for mainly large to very large hail (isolated 2+ inches in diameter), before clustering and an increase in damaging wind potential occurs. The tornado threat is less clear, as stronger low-level flow will tend to remain focused farther north into the Midwest. Still, sufficient low-level shear should exist this afternoon and evening to support a threat for a few tornadoes with both supercells and embedded within clusters.

Midwest/Ohio Valley into Western Pennsylvania

An MCV evident over eastern IL/western IN will continue to track eastward into northern IN and eventually OH this afternoon and evening. Ongoing thunderstorms associated with this MCV have remained sub-severe through much of the morning. But, gradual destabilization of the already moist low-level airmass downstream should support some uptick in convective coverage and intensity across the OH Valley by mid to late afternoon. Localized enhancement to the west-southwesterly low-level winds should focus across parts of northern OH and vicinity, where somewhat greater low-level shear and tornado potential may exist. Strong deep-layer shear will easily support organized convection, including the potential for supercells with a threat for large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. Additional thunderstorms may eventually develop eastward from the mid MS Valley into IL/IN in association with another MCV. Large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two may also occur with this activity, if it develops.

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Thursday, April 16

Outlook Summary

A corridor of strong to severe storms is possible Thursday over much of central New York into southern Vermont. Isolated strong storms may extend southwestward into parts of Arkansas and Tennessee.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 151658

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF UPSTATE NEW YORK AND INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT

### SUMMARY

A corridor of strong to severe storms is possible Thursday over much of central New York into southern Vermont. Isolated strong storms may extend southwestward into parts of Arkansas and Tennessee.

Synopsis

A fast-moving shortwave trough will move from the OH Valley/Great Lakes into NY and PA on Thursday, providing increasing large-scale ascent and wind fields. Southwest of this area, a secondary wave is forecast to move across MO/AR and to the lower OH Valley by 00Z, with cooling aloft.

At the surface, low pressure will develop east out of lower MI and into upstate NY during the afternoon, with strengthening west/southwest winds maintaining 50s to near 60 F dewpoints across NY and southwest New England. Farther south, a most air mass will remain over the lower MS Valley, with 60s F dewpoints from AR into southeast MO and western TN.

Northeast

Storms are likely to form ahead of the upper wave during the early afternoon across western NY and northwest PA, and perhaps beneath the upper low over lower MI. The MI activity may contain hail, while the NY storms develop into a multifaceted threat.

Lengthening hodographs across NY and into southwest New England will favor cellular storm mode, with a few supercells expected. Hail appears probable. A few damaging gusts may develop late in the day if activity can produce outflow and become more linear. A tornado will be possible as well, especially as cells interact with the warm advection zone/warm front where low-level shear will be bit stronger, from the Hudson Valley across VT and perhaps into southwest NH.

AR/MO/KY/TN

Models insist that early day storms will occur from eastern AR into western TN, but with little severe potential. In the wake of this activity, lapse rates will steepen as cooling aloft overspreads the area and surface heating occurs. Ascent will be minimal but warm advection from the southwest and a possible residual outflow boundary may instigate additional storms from northern AR into TN and perhaps far northern MS/AL. A few reports of hail or wind would be possible.

..Jewell.. 04/15/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Friday, April 17

Outlook Summary

Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of the southern Plains to the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley vicinity Friday into Friday night. A few tornadoes, possibly strong, very large hail, and damaging winds will be possible.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 151932

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM OKLAHOMA NORTHEASTWARD INTO IOWA AND ILLINOIS

### SUMMARY

Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of the southern Plains to the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley vicinity Friday into Friday night. A few tornadoes, possibly strong, very large hail, and damaging winds will be possible.

Synopsis

An upper trough will move out of the Rockies and into the Plains on Friday, with primary midlevel speed max intensifying from the central Plains into the upper MS Valley. A southern stream system will also intensify the upper-wind pattern from northern Mexico into the southern Plains.

At the surface, a cold front is forecast to extend from MN into KS Friday morning, progressing roughly to a WI to central MO to northern OK line by 00Z. Meanwhile, a warm front will push north into WI, extending southeastward near Chicago.

Of particular note for this setup are model trends, which have consistently shown the cold front pushing farther east and south than the previous model runs. This results in a lower confidence forecast in terms of the precise area of greatest threat and degree of tornado potential.

Despite these uncertainties, the environment ahead of the cold front will be quite favorable for supercells, with steep midlevel lapse rates, ample shear, and strong instability. These factors will clearly favor very large damaging hail, a risk of tornadoes, and eventually damaging winds. A broad 40-50 kt low-level jet will contribute to favorable low-level shear for tornadoes, and a couple strong tornadoes will be possible prior to the cold front and aggregate outflows undercutting the initial activity. Favored areas for tornadoes will be southern KS into western/northern OK in proximity to the dryline, and farther north into eastern IA and southern WI where SRH will be stronger near the low.

Even if the cold front surges faster than currently indicated, a widespread damaging wind threat could occur. Trends will continue to be monitored as the event nears.

..Jewell.. 04/15/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Saturday, April 18

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150753 SPC AC 150753

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Sat - Ohio Valley

An upper trough will overspread the Great Lakes and Midwest on Saturday. At the surface, a cold front will sweep east across the region during the day. Destabilization will likely be limited by downstream cloud cover within a strong low-level warm advection regime ahead of the front. Additionally, convection will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the front from Lower MI into IN/IL. Nevertheless, strong mid/upper flow (40-60 kt in the 850-700 mb layer) will support strong to severe convection even amid weak instability. As such, a damaging wind gust risk will accompany linear convection moving across the region during the day into evening.

Days 5-6/Sun-Mon

Strong high pressure in the wake of the cold front from the Day 4 period will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Rockies early next week. A dry/stable airmass will preclude thunderstorm potential.

Days 7-8/Tue-Wed

An upper trough is forecast to develop across the western U.S. Tuesday/Wednesday. This will result in lee trough development across the High Plains, and strengthening south/southeasterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward across the southern Plains. Medium range guidance varies on whether or not this western trough will eject into the Plains during this time, or if upper ridging will be maintained. If the trough ejects, severe potential could develop across portions of the southern/central Plains Tuesday/Wednesday, though predictability is too low at this time to introduce severe probabilities.

..Leitman.. 04/15/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Sunday, April 19

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150753 SPC AC 150753

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Sat - Ohio Valley

An upper trough will overspread the Great Lakes and Midwest on Saturday. At the surface, a cold front will sweep east across the region during the day. Destabilization will likely be limited by downstream cloud cover within a strong low-level warm advection regime ahead of the front. Additionally, convection will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the front from Lower MI into IN/IL. Nevertheless, strong mid/upper flow (40-60 kt in the 850-700 mb layer) will support strong to severe convection even amid weak instability. As such, a damaging wind gust risk will accompany linear convection moving across the region during the day into evening.

Days 5-6/Sun-Mon

Strong high pressure in the wake of the cold front from the Day 4 period will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Rockies early next week. A dry/stable airmass will preclude thunderstorm potential.

Days 7-8/Tue-Wed

An upper trough is forecast to develop across the western U.S. Tuesday/Wednesday. This will result in lee trough development across the High Plains, and strengthening south/southeasterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward across the southern Plains. Medium range guidance varies on whether or not this western trough will eject into the Plains during this time, or if upper ridging will be maintained. If the trough ejects, severe potential could develop across portions of the southern/central Plains Tuesday/Wednesday, though predictability is too low at this time to introduce severe probabilities.

..Leitman.. 04/15/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Monday, April 20

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150753 SPC AC 150753

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Sat - Ohio Valley

An upper trough will overspread the Great Lakes and Midwest on Saturday. At the surface, a cold front will sweep east across the region during the day. Destabilization will likely be limited by downstream cloud cover within a strong low-level warm advection regime ahead of the front. Additionally, convection will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the front from Lower MI into IN/IL. Nevertheless, strong mid/upper flow (40-60 kt in the 850-700 mb layer) will support strong to severe convection even amid weak instability. As such, a damaging wind gust risk will accompany linear convection moving across the region during the day into evening.

Days 5-6/Sun-Mon

Strong high pressure in the wake of the cold front from the Day 4 period will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Rockies early next week. A dry/stable airmass will preclude thunderstorm potential.

Days 7-8/Tue-Wed

An upper trough is forecast to develop across the western U.S. Tuesday/Wednesday. This will result in lee trough development across the High Plains, and strengthening south/southeasterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward across the southern Plains. Medium range guidance varies on whether or not this western trough will eject into the Plains during this time, or if upper ridging will be maintained. If the trough ejects, severe potential could develop across portions of the southern/central Plains Tuesday/Wednesday, though predictability is too low at this time to introduce severe probabilities.

..Leitman.. 04/15/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Tuesday, April 21

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150753 SPC AC 150753

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Sat - Ohio Valley

An upper trough will overspread the Great Lakes and Midwest on Saturday. At the surface, a cold front will sweep east across the region during the day. Destabilization will likely be limited by downstream cloud cover within a strong low-level warm advection regime ahead of the front. Additionally, convection will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the front from Lower MI into IN/IL. Nevertheless, strong mid/upper flow (40-60 kt in the 850-700 mb layer) will support strong to severe convection even amid weak instability. As such, a damaging wind gust risk will accompany linear convection moving across the region during the day into evening.

Days 5-6/Sun-Mon

Strong high pressure in the wake of the cold front from the Day 4 period will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Rockies early next week. A dry/stable airmass will preclude thunderstorm potential.

Days 7-8/Tue-Wed

An upper trough is forecast to develop across the western U.S. Tuesday/Wednesday. This will result in lee trough development across the High Plains, and strengthening south/southeasterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward across the southern Plains. Medium range guidance varies on whether or not this western trough will eject into the Plains during this time, or if upper ridging will be maintained. If the trough ejects, severe potential could develop across portions of the southern/central Plains Tuesday/Wednesday, though predictability is too low at this time to introduce severe probabilities.

..Leitman.. 04/15/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Wednesday, April 22

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150753 SPC AC 150753

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Sat - Ohio Valley

An upper trough will overspread the Great Lakes and Midwest on Saturday. At the surface, a cold front will sweep east across the region during the day. Destabilization will likely be limited by downstream cloud cover within a strong low-level warm advection regime ahead of the front. Additionally, convection will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the front from Lower MI into IN/IL. Nevertheless, strong mid/upper flow (40-60 kt in the 850-700 mb layer) will support strong to severe convection even amid weak instability. As such, a damaging wind gust risk will accompany linear convection moving across the region during the day into evening.

Days 5-6/Sun-Mon

Strong high pressure in the wake of the cold front from the Day 4 period will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Rockies early next week. A dry/stable airmass will preclude thunderstorm potential.

Days 7-8/Tue-Wed

An upper trough is forecast to develop across the western U.S. Tuesday/Wednesday. This will result in lee trough development across the High Plains, and strengthening south/southeasterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward across the southern Plains. Medium range guidance varies on whether or not this western trough will eject into the Plains during this time, or if upper ridging will be maintained. If the trough ejects, severe potential could develop across portions of the southern/central Plains Tuesday/Wednesday, though predictability is too low at this time to introduce severe probabilities.

..Leitman.. 04/15/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, April 15

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Thursday, April 16

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Friday, April 17

ANY SEVERE: 30%

Saturday, April 18

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Sunday, April 19

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Monday, April 20

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Tuesday, April 21

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Wednesday, April 22

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

---

Your Severe Outlook

---

---

About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.

• tornado hq - live severe weather warnings
• cyclocane - hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones
• tornado solitaire - play cards while you monitor the US severe weather threat
• tertremo - live view of earthquakes around the world
• earthquake solitaire - get live earthquake updates as you play your favorite card game