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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Tuesday, December 9
Wednesday, December 10
Thursday, December 11
Friday, December 12
Saturday, December 13
Sunday, December 14
Monday, December 15
Tuesday, December 16

Outlook for Tuesday, December 9

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorm potential appears negligible today through tonight.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 090502

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorm potential appears negligible today through tonight.

Discussion

Conditions will be too dry/stable for lightning-producing convection across the CONUS through the period. Isolated thunderstorms are possible today across the FL Straits near a quasi-stationary front that progressed offshore of the FL Peninsula/Keys on Monday.

..Grams/Jirak.. 12/09/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, December 10

Outlook Summary

The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Wednesday through Wednesday night.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 090504

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1104 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Wednesday through Wednesday night.

Discussion

Models continue to indicate that another mid-level high will begin to build near the Aleutians during this period, but little change is forecast to the general downstream flow, inland across the Pacific coast into portions of the Canadian Prairies and U.S. Great Plains, through at least Wednesday night. Farther downstream, it still appears that large-scale mid/upper troughing will be reinforced across and east of the Mississippi Valley by at least a few digging short wave perturbations. There remains notable spread concerning the smaller-scale developments, including at least one compact, but vigorous, perturbation digging toward the Great Lakes region, after emerging from the southern Hudson Bay vicinity, and a couple of others of northern mid-latitude Pacific origin progressing through the flow to its south through southeast. Regardless, related surface developments are not likely to promote a southerly return flow off the Gulf Basin, where boundary-layer modification in the wake of the prior front will only be gradually underway. Stable conditions will generally prevail across the U.S., with negligible risk for thunderstorm activity.

..Kerr.. 12/09/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Thursday, December 11

Outlook Summary

The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Thursday through Thursday night.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 090742

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Tue Dec 09 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Thursday through Thursday night.

Discussion

Downstream of an increasingly prominent, blocking high building near and to the north of the Aleutians during this period, models indicate that strong flow will take on an increasing northwesterly component across southern British Columbia and adjacent portions of the Pacific Northwest into portions of the Canadian Prairies and northern U.S. Great Plains. It appears that a significant short wave trough near the leading edge of this regime will begin to reinforce broad mid-level troughing extending downstream into the western Atlantic.

While mid-level flow is likely to remain cyclonic as far south as the Gulf Coast states into the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes of the western Atlantic, heights across the south are forecast to begin to rise, as a prominent perturbation accelerates rapidly east-northeast of the lower Great Lakes region through the Canadian Maritimes.

The primary surface front, trailing an evolving cyclone across the Canadian Maritimes, may stall across the southern Atlantic coast through Tennessee Valley, while progressing slowly southward through the lower Missouri Valley and central Great Plains by late Thursday night, in advance of much colder air beginning to nose southward to the lee of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies.

As a remnant preceding front becomes more diffuse across the central through northwestern Gulf Basin, Gulf boundary-layer modification may gradually continue, as a weak southerly return flow begins to develop across the Texas coast. However, beneath relatively warm and dry lower/mid-levels, it does not appears that this will contribute to appreciable destabilization during this period.

..Kerr.. 12/09/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Friday, December 12

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Friday, December 12 potential too low
Day 5 Saturday, December 13 potential too low
Day 6 Sunday, December 14 potential too low
Day 7 Monday, December 15 potential too low
Day 8 Tuesday, December 16 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090927 SPC AC 090927

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 AM CST Tue Dec 09 2025

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range models indicate that at least a couple of short wave troughs, digging within an initially strong northwesterly regime across and to the east-southeast of the Canadian Rockies, will contribute to reinforcement of large-scale troughing farther downstream late this work week into next weekend. As this occurs, cold surface ridging building to the lee of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies is forecast to eventually overspread much of the central and eastern U.S., offshore Atlantic and northwestern Gulf Basin by the beginning of next week.

Based on the past few model runs, it appears that an initial southeastward surge of cold air may weaken before reaching the Gulf coast, allowing for a gradual boundary-layer modification over the northwestern Gulf Basin to continue, before the more substantive surge of cold air reaches the northern Gulf by late this weekend. Particularly in association with the stronger front, if not also the weaker initial one, a moistening elevated and perhaps boundary-layer based return flow may contribute to sufficient destabilization to support a risk for thunderstorms, anywhere in a corridor from southeastern Texas toward the Mid South and Tennessee Valley. However, with any surface frontal wave development forecast to remain weak, the risk for severe weather is likely to remain low.

Into early next week, model output becomes more varied, but it appears that flow may trend more zonal across the northern mid-latitudes of North America. In lower latitudes, another developing moist southerly return flow, in advance of troughing digging across the southern Rockies and Great Plains, may contribute to renewed thunderstorm development across the northwestern Gulf coast vicinity. However, the potential for severe weather still seems limited at this time.

..Kerr.. 12/09/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Saturday, December 13

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Friday, December 12 potential too low
Day 5 Saturday, December 13 potential too low
Day 6 Sunday, December 14 potential too low
Day 7 Monday, December 15 potential too low
Day 8 Tuesday, December 16 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090927 SPC AC 090927

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 AM CST Tue Dec 09 2025

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range models indicate that at least a couple of short wave troughs, digging within an initially strong northwesterly regime across and to the east-southeast of the Canadian Rockies, will contribute to reinforcement of large-scale troughing farther downstream late this work week into next weekend. As this occurs, cold surface ridging building to the lee of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies is forecast to eventually overspread much of the central and eastern U.S., offshore Atlantic and northwestern Gulf Basin by the beginning of next week.

Based on the past few model runs, it appears that an initial southeastward surge of cold air may weaken before reaching the Gulf coast, allowing for a gradual boundary-layer modification over the northwestern Gulf Basin to continue, before the more substantive surge of cold air reaches the northern Gulf by late this weekend. Particularly in association with the stronger front, if not also the weaker initial one, a moistening elevated and perhaps boundary-layer based return flow may contribute to sufficient destabilization to support a risk for thunderstorms, anywhere in a corridor from southeastern Texas toward the Mid South and Tennessee Valley. However, with any surface frontal wave development forecast to remain weak, the risk for severe weather is likely to remain low.

Into early next week, model output becomes more varied, but it appears that flow may trend more zonal across the northern mid-latitudes of North America. In lower latitudes, another developing moist southerly return flow, in advance of troughing digging across the southern Rockies and Great Plains, may contribute to renewed thunderstorm development across the northwestern Gulf coast vicinity. However, the potential for severe weather still seems limited at this time.

..Kerr.. 12/09/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Sunday, December 14

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Friday, December 12 potential too low
Day 5 Saturday, December 13 potential too low
Day 6 Sunday, December 14 potential too low
Day 7 Monday, December 15 potential too low
Day 8 Tuesday, December 16 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090927 SPC AC 090927

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 AM CST Tue Dec 09 2025

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range models indicate that at least a couple of short wave troughs, digging within an initially strong northwesterly regime across and to the east-southeast of the Canadian Rockies, will contribute to reinforcement of large-scale troughing farther downstream late this work week into next weekend. As this occurs, cold surface ridging building to the lee of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies is forecast to eventually overspread much of the central and eastern U.S., offshore Atlantic and northwestern Gulf Basin by the beginning of next week.

Based on the past few model runs, it appears that an initial southeastward surge of cold air may weaken before reaching the Gulf coast, allowing for a gradual boundary-layer modification over the northwestern Gulf Basin to continue, before the more substantive surge of cold air reaches the northern Gulf by late this weekend. Particularly in association with the stronger front, if not also the weaker initial one, a moistening elevated and perhaps boundary-layer based return flow may contribute to sufficient destabilization to support a risk for thunderstorms, anywhere in a corridor from southeastern Texas toward the Mid South and Tennessee Valley. However, with any surface frontal wave development forecast to remain weak, the risk for severe weather is likely to remain low.

Into early next week, model output becomes more varied, but it appears that flow may trend more zonal across the northern mid-latitudes of North America. In lower latitudes, another developing moist southerly return flow, in advance of troughing digging across the southern Rockies and Great Plains, may contribute to renewed thunderstorm development across the northwestern Gulf coast vicinity. However, the potential for severe weather still seems limited at this time.

..Kerr.. 12/09/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Monday, December 15

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Friday, December 12 potential too low
Day 5 Saturday, December 13 potential too low
Day 6 Sunday, December 14 potential too low
Day 7 Monday, December 15 potential too low
Day 8 Tuesday, December 16 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090927 SPC AC 090927

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 AM CST Tue Dec 09 2025

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range models indicate that at least a couple of short wave troughs, digging within an initially strong northwesterly regime across and to the east-southeast of the Canadian Rockies, will contribute to reinforcement of large-scale troughing farther downstream late this work week into next weekend. As this occurs, cold surface ridging building to the lee of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies is forecast to eventually overspread much of the central and eastern U.S., offshore Atlantic and northwestern Gulf Basin by the beginning of next week.

Based on the past few model runs, it appears that an initial southeastward surge of cold air may weaken before reaching the Gulf coast, allowing for a gradual boundary-layer modification over the northwestern Gulf Basin to continue, before the more substantive surge of cold air reaches the northern Gulf by late this weekend. Particularly in association with the stronger front, if not also the weaker initial one, a moistening elevated and perhaps boundary-layer based return flow may contribute to sufficient destabilization to support a risk for thunderstorms, anywhere in a corridor from southeastern Texas toward the Mid South and Tennessee Valley. However, with any surface frontal wave development forecast to remain weak, the risk for severe weather is likely to remain low.

Into early next week, model output becomes more varied, but it appears that flow may trend more zonal across the northern mid-latitudes of North America. In lower latitudes, another developing moist southerly return flow, in advance of troughing digging across the southern Rockies and Great Plains, may contribute to renewed thunderstorm development across the northwestern Gulf coast vicinity. However, the potential for severe weather still seems limited at this time.

..Kerr.. 12/09/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Tuesday, December 16

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Friday, December 12 potential too low
Day 5 Saturday, December 13 potential too low
Day 6 Sunday, December 14 potential too low
Day 7 Monday, December 15 potential too low
Day 8 Tuesday, December 16 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090927 SPC AC 090927

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 AM CST Tue Dec 09 2025

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range models indicate that at least a couple of short wave troughs, digging within an initially strong northwesterly regime across and to the east-southeast of the Canadian Rockies, will contribute to reinforcement of large-scale troughing farther downstream late this work week into next weekend. As this occurs, cold surface ridging building to the lee of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies is forecast to eventually overspread much of the central and eastern U.S., offshore Atlantic and northwestern Gulf Basin by the beginning of next week.

Based on the past few model runs, it appears that an initial southeastward surge of cold air may weaken before reaching the Gulf coast, allowing for a gradual boundary-layer modification over the northwestern Gulf Basin to continue, before the more substantive surge of cold air reaches the northern Gulf by late this weekend. Particularly in association with the stronger front, if not also the weaker initial one, a moistening elevated and perhaps boundary-layer based return flow may contribute to sufficient destabilization to support a risk for thunderstorms, anywhere in a corridor from southeastern Texas toward the Mid South and Tennessee Valley. However, with any surface frontal wave development forecast to remain weak, the risk for severe weather is likely to remain low.

Into early next week, model output becomes more varied, but it appears that flow may trend more zonal across the northern mid-latitudes of North America. In lower latitudes, another developing moist southerly return flow, in advance of troughing digging across the southern Rockies and Great Plains, may contribute to renewed thunderstorm development across the northwestern Gulf coast vicinity. However, the potential for severe weather still seems limited at this time.

..Kerr.. 12/09/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, December 9
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: low
Wednesday, December 10
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: low
Thursday, December 11
ANY SEVERE: low
Friday, December 12
ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, December 13
ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, December 14
ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, December 15
ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, December 16
ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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