Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, December 18
Outlook Summary
While organized severe potential may be limited today, isolated strong wind gusts may occur across portions of the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys this afternoon and evening and/or across the Carolinas late tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 181300
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
Valid 181300Z - 191200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA
### SUMMARY
While organized severe potential may be limited today, isolated strong wind gusts may occur across portions of the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys this afternoon and evening and/or across the Carolinas late tonight.
Tennessee Valley/Lower Ohio Valley
A prominent upper-level trough centered over the northern Plains/Upper Midwest early this morning will continue to amplify and spread east-southeastward, taking on a more negative tilt tonight over the Midwest/Cumberland Plateau with intense 12-hr height falls on the order of 210m. A robust low/mid-level wind field will accompany this trough, especially into tonight with 60-80 kt winds within the lowest 1-3km AGL coincident with the modifying warm sector. But, only limited destabilization is expected ahead of the front, with forecast soundings generally exhibiting meager instability. While buoyancy will be weak, a strongly forced band of frontal convection is expected to develop and spread eastward later this afternoon into evening. Current thinking is a stable boundary layer will minimize the risk of severe wind gusts near the surface, but somewhat taller/more sustained storms could occur across the Tennessee Valley including Middle/eastern Tennessee and much of Alabama into parts of Georgia, with at least some convectively enhanced wind gust potential, possibly to near-severe levels.
Carolinas
Some strong/locally severe storms could occur late tonight through the predawn/early morning hours of Friday, attributable to an increasingly negative-tilt upper-level trough and a related robust strengthening of the deep-layer wind field. The abatement and modification of continental/cold air inland is a key uncertainty, and some guidance such as 00z/06z NAM, may be a bit too aggressive, albeit modest/weak overall, regarding late-night near-surface-based destabilization. Primary concern is for the immediate coastal areas/Outer Banks where somewhat greater airmass modification/low-level moistening is more plausible. But it is also possible that convectively enhanced wind gusts materialize inland (including Piedmont areas) in the predawn hours..
..Guyer/Lyons.. 12/18/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Friday, December 19
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms may occur over the Mid Atlantic and Northeast early Friday, and in the Pacific Northwest Friday afternoon through Friday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 180655
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms may occur over the Mid Atlantic and Northeast early Friday, and in the Pacific Northwest Friday afternoon through Friday night.
Discussion
A line of thunderstorms is expected along a strong cold front extending from eastern New York to eastern North Carolina Friday morning. This line of storms is expected to be mostly elevated from Pennsylvania northward. From northern Virginia southward, some weak instability is possible ahead of the front as upper 50s to near 60s dewpoints advect northward. Forcing will be weaker farther south, and 00Z CAM guidance supports this with a more broken line of storms that far south. If a more consolidated, strong frontal band can continue where the near 60s dewpoints are present, a few isolated strong wind gusts may occur for a few hours in the morning before the front moves offshore.
In the wake of this front, benign conditions are expected across most of the CONUS on Friday. Scattered thunderstorms are possible across western Washington and far northwest Oregon, but this thunderstorm activity should remain weak.
..Bentley.. 12/18/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Saturday, December 20
Outlook Summary
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across western Washington and far northwest Oregon on Saturday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 180827
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across western Washington and far northwest Oregon on Saturday.
Synopsis
A strong mid-level jet streak over the northern Plains Saturday morning will move east as a mid-level trough amplifies across the Great Lakes. As this occurs, a surface cold front will move from the Plains Saturday morning to near the Appalachians and extending back into East Texas by early Sunday morning.
East Texas into Louisiana
Low-level moisture return will bring low to mid 60s dewpoints northward across East Texas and Louisiana on Saturday and Saturday evening. Weak to potentially moderate instability is forecast to develop. However forcing will be minimal with rising heights aloft and a weakening low-level jet. In addition, forecast soundings show warm mid-level temperatures which will likely keep the airmass capped. Therefore, thunderstorms are not expected across East Texas and Louisiana on Saturday night/early Sunday.
Pacific Northwest.. Persistent onshore flow with cool temperatures aloft will result in persistent convective activity across western Washington and northwest Oregon on Saturday. Forecast soundings show weak instability and equilibrium levels near or slightly above -20C which may support some isolated thunderstorms.
..Bentley.. 12/18/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Sunday, December 21
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, December 21 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, December 22 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, December 23 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, December 24 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, December 25 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180903 SPC AC 180903
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
An expansive area of high pressure will build across the eastern CONUS on D4/Sunday and push a frontal zone near the Gulf Coast. After this, ridging will build across the central CONUS and allow rich moisture to advance well inland from the southern Plains to the Midwest by D7/Wednesday. However, building heights aloft will result in minimal if any forcing for thunderstorm development during this period. Even beyond day 7, model guidance shows decent agreement in a modest ridge breakdown without much severe weather concern.
..Bentley.. 12/18/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, December 22
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, December 21 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, December 22 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, December 23 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, December 24 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, December 25 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180903 SPC AC 180903
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
An expansive area of high pressure will build across the eastern CONUS on D4/Sunday and push a frontal zone near the Gulf Coast. After this, ridging will build across the central CONUS and allow rich moisture to advance well inland from the southern Plains to the Midwest by D7/Wednesday. However, building heights aloft will result in minimal if any forcing for thunderstorm development during this period. Even beyond day 7, model guidance shows decent agreement in a modest ridge breakdown without much severe weather concern.
..Bentley.. 12/18/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, December 23
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, December 21 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, December 22 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, December 23 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, December 24 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, December 25 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180903 SPC AC 180903
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
An expansive area of high pressure will build across the eastern CONUS on D4/Sunday and push a frontal zone near the Gulf Coast. After this, ridging will build across the central CONUS and allow rich moisture to advance well inland from the southern Plains to the Midwest by D7/Wednesday. However, building heights aloft will result in minimal if any forcing for thunderstorm development during this period. Even beyond day 7, model guidance shows decent agreement in a modest ridge breakdown without much severe weather concern.
..Bentley.. 12/18/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, December 24
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, December 21 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, December 22 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, December 23 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, December 24 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, December 25 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180903 SPC AC 180903
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
An expansive area of high pressure will build across the eastern CONUS on D4/Sunday and push a frontal zone near the Gulf Coast. After this, ridging will build across the central CONUS and allow rich moisture to advance well inland from the southern Plains to the Midwest by D7/Wednesday. However, building heights aloft will result in minimal if any forcing for thunderstorm development during this period. Even beyond day 7, model guidance shows decent agreement in a modest ridge breakdown without much severe weather concern.
..Bentley.. 12/18/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, December 25
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, December 21 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, December 22 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, December 23 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, December 24 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, December 25 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180903 SPC AC 180903
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
An expansive area of high pressure will build across the eastern CONUS on D4/Sunday and push a frontal zone near the Gulf Coast. After this, ridging will build across the central CONUS and allow rich moisture to advance well inland from the southern Plains to the Midwest by D7/Wednesday. However, building heights aloft will result in minimal if any forcing for thunderstorm development during this period. Even beyond day 7, model guidance shows decent agreement in a modest ridge breakdown without much severe weather concern.
..Bentley.. 12/18/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, December 18
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Friday, December 19
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Saturday, December 20
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Sunday, December 21
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, December 22
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, December 23
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, December 24
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, December 25
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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