Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, June 30
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms will be possible from parts of the central High Plains into the Upper Midwest, and across parts of the Northeast on today.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 300555
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026
Valid 301200Z - 011200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN…PARTS OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT…AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS…
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms will be possible from parts of the central High Plains into the Upper Midwest, and across parts of the Northeast on today.
Synopsis
An upper-level low will move into Saskatchewan/Manitoba today, with west southwesterly flow aloft overspreading portions of northern Minnesota into northern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. A frontal boundary will extend from a surface low across Manitoba southward across the Upper Midwest into the Central Plains, with a dryline extending southward into the Southern Plains. Across the Northeast, enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will impinge upon the northeastern periphery of a high amplitude ridge across the eastern US.
Upper Midwest/Great Lakes
A southwesterly low-level jet is set to increase across central/northern Wisconsin by late afternoon. This in combination with forcing for ascent from the upper-level trough should support convection developing near the surface boundary across northern Wisconsin into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. To the south/east of the boundary, a very moist air mass with 70s dewpoints is forecast. Strong to extreme instability is forecast across this region amid strong deep layer shear profiles, supporting initial supercells capable of large hail, damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado. With time, clustering may support potential for an increase in damaging wind potential.
Guidance also suggests further development may occur by late evening across portions of Nebraska into northern Iowa as the surface boundary begins to shift northward with a short-wave impulse rotating through the upper trough. This will pose some potential for damaging wind and hail through the late evening/overnight period. Forecast soundings suggests this activity may remain elevated, leading to lower confidence in higher probabilities.
Northeast
A belt of 45 kt northwesterly flow aloft will overspread portions of the Northeast this afternoon. Guidance suggests that thunderstorms will develop across the region by the afternoon. Deep layer shear around 35-40 kts and moderate instability thunderstorm development is forecast across the region. This will support transient supercells before one or more clusters/bowing segments develop and spread south and eastward with damaging wind potential. A stronger supercell or two may be capable of a tornado or two.
Southern/Central High Plains
A mid-level shortwave will eject across the central Plains this afternoon, with widely scattered thunderstorm development expected near the surface trough/dryline in the afternoon/evening. A southerly low-level jet is progged to increase across the area through the evening. Moderate to strong instability is progged amid steep low to mid-level lapse rates. Initial high-based convection will pose potential for large hail and damaging wind. With clustering/consolidation along outflows, the damaging wind threat will increase with potential for instances of significant winds 70-80 mph.
Southeastern US
Forecast guidance depicts 25-35 kt mid-level northeasterly flow on the southern periphery of an upper high centered over the OH/TN Valley. A very moist air mass will be present across much of the region and strong destabilization is forecast amid strong daytime heating. Forecast soundings depict around 20-30 kt effective shear magnitudes, supporting some risk of organized cells/clusters. Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible as activity develops west/southwest through early evening.
..Thornton/Chalmers.. 06/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Wednesday, July 1
Outlook Summary
Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms will again be possible from the central Plains into the Upper Midwest as well the Northeast on Wednesday. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main concerns.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 300607
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN
### SUMMARY
Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms will again be possible from the central Plains into the Upper Midwest as well the Northeast on Wednesday. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main concerns.
Mid-Missouri Valley into central Wisconsin
Models are in general agreement that a cluster/MCS will be ongoing in the eastern South Dakota/southern Minnesota vicinity early Wednesday morning. There is at least some potential for damaging surface gusts with this activity. Further intensification could also occur as the airmass destabilizes in parts of Wisconsin into the afternoon. However the early day activity evolves, an outflow boundary from this activity will serve as a focus for additional afternoon thunderstorms. 70+ F dewpoints to the south of the boundary will again promote strong to locally extreme buoyancy. Moderate to strong mid-level winds on the southern flank of the upper trough in Canada will allow for 40-55 kt of effective shear near the surface boundary. Initial supercells will be capable of large to isolated very large (around 2-2.5 in.) hail and perhaps a tornado or two. Given the instability, strong downdrafts will likely lead to upscale growth relatively quickly. The risk for severe/damaging winds will become the primary hazard with time, particularly if an MCS can develop. A Slight Risk has been added to cover both potential scenarios.
Northeast
The forecast continues to be uncertain given the nebulous forcing for ascent. Nonetheless, substantial buoyancy will be in place across the region (3000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE). Effective shear of 35-40 kt will promote some storm organization. Model guidance shows variable solutions from more isolated cellular activity to a cluster moving southeastward out of Canada. Given the low confidence in placing more organized activity, a Marginal Risk will be maintained for now. Damaging winds and isolated large hail will be possible.
Central High Plains
Thunderstorm development is expected within the lee trough during the afternoon. A deeply-mixed boundary layer will promote potential for severe winds especially if any clustering can occur. Shear will be modest and severe coverage is expected to be isolated.
Southeast
Strong buoyancy will be in place during the afternoon given rich moisture (70+ F dewpoints). Shear will be quite weak with some minor enhancement in the lower Mississippi Valley. Models do show some potential for clustering, but the location is quite variable. Lack of even subtle features to focus convection keeps confidence in a more organized damaging wind threat low.
..Wendt.. 06/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Thursday, July 2
Outlook Summary
Strong to severe storms will be possible from the northern Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes regions on Thursday. Isolated strong to severe storms may also occur in the Tennessee Valley/Southeast as well as parts of the Northeast.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 300734
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE BLACK HILLS VICINITY INTO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST
### SUMMARY
Strong to severe storms will be possible from the northern Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes regions on Thursday. Isolated strong to severe storms may also occur in the Tennessee Valley/Southeast as well as parts of the Northeast.
Synopsis
Upper ridging will continue in the East with broad cyclonic flow in the West. Embedded shortwave troughs will likely impact the northern Plains. Another shortwave trough embedded within northwesterly flow aloft will move into parts of the Northeast. A stalled surface boundary will be present from the northern High Plains into the Upper Midwest with a lee trough/weak surface low developing in the High Plains.
Black Hills into Iowa/Minnesota
A subtle shortwave trough is evident in model guidance. This feature will move into Wyoming/Montana and eventually the western Dakotas. Convection appears likely to develop within the higher terrain (Big Horns/Black Hills) and move into an airmass with increasingly rich low-level moisture to the east. Convection should be able to organize along the surface boundary with around 40 kt of effective shear parallel to the boundary itself. Additional convection is also possible along the stationary front as low-level warm advection increases. Though there is some variability in where any eventual MCS will propagate, there is enough confidence to include a 15% severe probability area that encompasses the envelope of potential tracks. The environment would support significant hail with supercells and significant winds with an organized MCS.
Northeast
Ahead of a cold front attendant from a surface low in Quebec, convection will be possible during the afternoon. The timing of the convection, and thus the available buoyancy, is not entirely certain. Damaging wind gusts and large hail would be possible.
Tennessee Valley into Southeast
A subtle easterly wave rotating around the upper anticyclone will promote afternoon convection within a very moist and unstable airmass. Given the mid-level lapse rates will fairly steep, storms will likely be capable of damaging downburst winds despite weak shear.
..Wendt.. 06/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Friday, July 3
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, July 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, July 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, July 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, July 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, July 7 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300838 SPC AC 300838
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper-level flow is expected to become more zonal across the CONUS this Friday. The upper ridge within the East will lose amplitude and develop westward and amplify once again into early next week. The exact structure of the upper ridge does vary within model guidance. At the surface, a mostly stationary boundary will continue to be modified/reinforced by convection occurring along/near it on preceding days. As the upper ridge builds in the West, this boundary will likely get pushed farther south within the areas east of the Mississippi by the developing surface high in the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. Moisture will then be transported farther north/west in the Plains/High Plains beginning sometime this weekend. The general theme for the extended forecast will be where subtle shortwaves/MCVs will propagate and spur convection along the boundary.
For Friday, another MCS is possible along the surface boundary similar to D3/Thursday. Uncertainty in how Thursday's convection will impact the location of the boundary and most favorable environment reduces confidence on where the greatest severe threat will be. Into the weekend and early next week, some severe threat is possible in parts of the eastern CONUS in association with MCV from convection in the Plains/Midwest. Additional severe storms could occur as northwesterly flow aloft develops in the High Plains. There are still enough differences in the upper-level pattern between medium range guidance that predictability of any higher threat corridors is low.
..Wendt.. 06/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, July 4
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, July 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, July 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, July 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, July 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, July 7 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300838 SPC AC 300838
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper-level flow is expected to become more zonal across the CONUS this Friday. The upper ridge within the East will lose amplitude and develop westward and amplify once again into early next week. The exact structure of the upper ridge does vary within model guidance. At the surface, a mostly stationary boundary will continue to be modified/reinforced by convection occurring along/near it on preceding days. As the upper ridge builds in the West, this boundary will likely get pushed farther south within the areas east of the Mississippi by the developing surface high in the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. Moisture will then be transported farther north/west in the Plains/High Plains beginning sometime this weekend. The general theme for the extended forecast will be where subtle shortwaves/MCVs will propagate and spur convection along the boundary.
For Friday, another MCS is possible along the surface boundary similar to D3/Thursday. Uncertainty in how Thursday's convection will impact the location of the boundary and most favorable environment reduces confidence on where the greatest severe threat will be. Into the weekend and early next week, some severe threat is possible in parts of the eastern CONUS in association with MCV from convection in the Plains/Midwest. Additional severe storms could occur as northwesterly flow aloft develops in the High Plains. There are still enough differences in the upper-level pattern between medium range guidance that predictability of any higher threat corridors is low.
..Wendt.. 06/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, July 5
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, July 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, July 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, July 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, July 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, July 7 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300838 SPC AC 300838
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper-level flow is expected to become more zonal across the CONUS this Friday. The upper ridge within the East will lose amplitude and develop westward and amplify once again into early next week. The exact structure of the upper ridge does vary within model guidance. At the surface, a mostly stationary boundary will continue to be modified/reinforced by convection occurring along/near it on preceding days. As the upper ridge builds in the West, this boundary will likely get pushed farther south within the areas east of the Mississippi by the developing surface high in the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. Moisture will then be transported farther north/west in the Plains/High Plains beginning sometime this weekend. The general theme for the extended forecast will be where subtle shortwaves/MCVs will propagate and spur convection along the boundary.
For Friday, another MCS is possible along the surface boundary similar to D3/Thursday. Uncertainty in how Thursday's convection will impact the location of the boundary and most favorable environment reduces confidence on where the greatest severe threat will be. Into the weekend and early next week, some severe threat is possible in parts of the eastern CONUS in association with MCV from convection in the Plains/Midwest. Additional severe storms could occur as northwesterly flow aloft develops in the High Plains. There are still enough differences in the upper-level pattern between medium range guidance that predictability of any higher threat corridors is low.
..Wendt.. 06/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, July 6
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, July 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, July 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, July 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, July 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, July 7 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300838 SPC AC 300838
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper-level flow is expected to become more zonal across the CONUS this Friday. The upper ridge within the East will lose amplitude and develop westward and amplify once again into early next week. The exact structure of the upper ridge does vary within model guidance. At the surface, a mostly stationary boundary will continue to be modified/reinforced by convection occurring along/near it on preceding days. As the upper ridge builds in the West, this boundary will likely get pushed farther south within the areas east of the Mississippi by the developing surface high in the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. Moisture will then be transported farther north/west in the Plains/High Plains beginning sometime this weekend. The general theme for the extended forecast will be where subtle shortwaves/MCVs will propagate and spur convection along the boundary.
For Friday, another MCS is possible along the surface boundary similar to D3/Thursday. Uncertainty in how Thursday's convection will impact the location of the boundary and most favorable environment reduces confidence on where the greatest severe threat will be. Into the weekend and early next week, some severe threat is possible in parts of the eastern CONUS in association with MCV from convection in the Plains/Midwest. Additional severe storms could occur as northwesterly flow aloft develops in the High Plains. There are still enough differences in the upper-level pattern between medium range guidance that predictability of any higher threat corridors is low.
..Wendt.. 06/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, July 7
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, July 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, July 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, July 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, July 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, July 7 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300838 SPC AC 300838
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper-level flow is expected to become more zonal across the CONUS this Friday. The upper ridge within the East will lose amplitude and develop westward and amplify once again into early next week. The exact structure of the upper ridge does vary within model guidance. At the surface, a mostly stationary boundary will continue to be modified/reinforced by convection occurring along/near it on preceding days. As the upper ridge builds in the West, this boundary will likely get pushed farther south within the areas east of the Mississippi by the developing surface high in the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. Moisture will then be transported farther north/west in the Plains/High Plains beginning sometime this weekend. The general theme for the extended forecast will be where subtle shortwaves/MCVs will propagate and spur convection along the boundary.
For Friday, another MCS is possible along the surface boundary similar to D3/Thursday. Uncertainty in how Thursday's convection will impact the location of the boundary and most favorable environment reduces confidence on where the greatest severe threat will be. Into the weekend and early next week, some severe threat is possible in parts of the eastern CONUS in association with MCV from convection in the Plains/Midwest. Additional severe storms could occur as northwesterly flow aloft develops in the High Plains. There are still enough differences in the upper-level pattern between medium range guidance that predictability of any higher threat corridors is low.
..Wendt.. 06/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, June 30
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Wednesday, July 1
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Thursday, July 2
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Friday, July 3
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, July 4
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, July 5
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, July 6
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, July 7
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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