Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, March 26
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon and evening across parts of the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Very large hail, a few tornadoes, and severe wind gusts will be possible.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 30%
hail 30%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 260534
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon and evening across parts of the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Very large hail, a few tornadoes, and severe wind gusts will be possible.
Mid-Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley
Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a weak short-wave trough topping the dominant southwestern anticyclone over southern WY. Latest lightning data supports this with isolated thunderstorms currently noted from southern WY into the NE Panhandle. 00z model guidance suggests this feature will advance into the Mid-MO Valley by 18z, then progress into the Mid-MS Valley by 27/00z. As this short wave advances east, surface ridging will build south across the Plains and force a pronounced cold front across much of IA by early afternoon with the sharp boundary settling south across northern IL as a weak surface wave tracks toward southern Lower MI.
Deep westerly flow should allow surface temperatures to warm quickly into the lower-mid 80s south of the front over IL/western IN. Even so, convective temperatures may struggle to be breached until late afternoon. Current thinking is upper 50s to near 60 F dew points should return to this region prior to frontal passage, thus modest MLCAPE is expected to develop. Forecast soundings suggest weak capping may hold across the warm sector so it's not entirely clear how much activity will develop well ahead of the front. However, strong frontal forcing will easily encourage thunderstorm development and convection will evolve within a strongly sheared environment. Profiles favor organized rotating updrafts and supercells are expected, especially early in the convective cycle. Given the strength of the front there is an expectation for storm mergers and line segments to evolve. Very large hail is possible, especially with early supercell development. As a frontal MCS evolves, damaging winds are expected to be more common with the LLJ strengthening into the evening hours across the OH Valley. Some tornado threat also exists with storms that are not undercut by the surging cold front, both with supercells and within the extensive frontal squall line. This activity will spread toward the Ohio River where gradual weakening is expected during the late-night hours.
..Darrow/Chalmers.. 03/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Friday, March 27
Outlook Summary
Isolated thunderstorms are expected from the Ohio Valley into the Carolinas Friday morning into the afternoon, but severe thunderstorm potential appears limited.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 260545
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated thunderstorms are expected from the Ohio Valley into the Carolinas Friday morning into the afternoon, but severe thunderstorm potential appears limited.
Synopsis
A cold front noted in 05 UTC surface observations across the northern Plains is forecast to push southeast over the next 48 hours. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along the front across the OH Valley around 12 UTC Friday, but should gradually wane in coverage from west to east through late morning as frontal ascent shifts south into an air mass with poor mid-level lapse rates. Heating of a seasonally moist air mass across the Carolinas and southern Virginia (mid 50s dewpoints) will likely yield a pocket of MLCAPE values between 100-300 J/kg ahead of the front. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected as the front pushes through during the mid to late afternoon hours. While 30-40 knot mid-level flow will overspread the region through peak heating, the general consensus among guidance, including the typically aggressive RRFS, is that buoyancy profiles will remain too marginal to support intense updrafts and a more appreciable severe threat.
..Moore.. 03/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Saturday, March 28
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, March 28 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, March 29 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, March 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, March 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, April 1 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250844 SPC AC 250844
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe thunderstorm potential remains limited for this weekend, though a gradual increase in some severe threat is anticipated by the middle of next week. In the wake of a cold frontal passage on D3/Friday into D4/Saturday, surface high pressure building over the eastern Plains and OH Valley will maintain dry and stable conditions for most regions east of the Rockies. Concurrently, a slight re-amplification of an upper-level ridge this weekend over the Southwest/West Coast will maintain warm and dry conditions for the southwestern CONUS. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a reasonably consistent signal in the slow eastward migration of the upper ridge through early next week. As this occurs, surface high pressure will gradually shift off the East Coast and promote moisture return into the Plains and MS Valley. Tight clustering of GEFS members lends high confidence in the potential for a return of slightly above seasonal moisture by the D6/Monday to D7/Tuesday time frame. Thunderstorm chances should steadily increase through mid-week as southwesterly flow aloft becomes increasingly predominant and promotes ascent/lapse-rate advection over the northwestern fringe of the returning moisture. Extended-range guidance hints at severe thunderstorm potential through the D6/Monday to D8/Wednesday time frame - mainly across the upper MS Valley/Midwest within the warm conveyor region of an organizing cyclone. While confidence in the overall synoptic evolution through next week is high, notable run-to-run variability in the convective environment forecast beyond D6 suggests predictability remains too limited to warrant highlights at this time.
..Moore.. 03/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, March 29
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, March 28 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, March 29 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, March 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, March 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, April 1 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250844 SPC AC 250844
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe thunderstorm potential remains limited for this weekend, though a gradual increase in some severe threat is anticipated by the middle of next week. In the wake of a cold frontal passage on D3/Friday into D4/Saturday, surface high pressure building over the eastern Plains and OH Valley will maintain dry and stable conditions for most regions east of the Rockies. Concurrently, a slight re-amplification of an upper-level ridge this weekend over the Southwest/West Coast will maintain warm and dry conditions for the southwestern CONUS. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a reasonably consistent signal in the slow eastward migration of the upper ridge through early next week. As this occurs, surface high pressure will gradually shift off the East Coast and promote moisture return into the Plains and MS Valley. Tight clustering of GEFS members lends high confidence in the potential for a return of slightly above seasonal moisture by the D6/Monday to D7/Tuesday time frame. Thunderstorm chances should steadily increase through mid-week as southwesterly flow aloft becomes increasingly predominant and promotes ascent/lapse-rate advection over the northwestern fringe of the returning moisture. Extended-range guidance hints at severe thunderstorm potential through the D6/Monday to D8/Wednesday time frame - mainly across the upper MS Valley/Midwest within the warm conveyor region of an organizing cyclone. While confidence in the overall synoptic evolution through next week is high, notable run-to-run variability in the convective environment forecast beyond D6 suggests predictability remains too limited to warrant highlights at this time.
..Moore.. 03/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, March 30
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, March 28 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, March 29 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, March 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, March 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, April 1 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250844 SPC AC 250844
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe thunderstorm potential remains limited for this weekend, though a gradual increase in some severe threat is anticipated by the middle of next week. In the wake of a cold frontal passage on D3/Friday into D4/Saturday, surface high pressure building over the eastern Plains and OH Valley will maintain dry and stable conditions for most regions east of the Rockies. Concurrently, a slight re-amplification of an upper-level ridge this weekend over the Southwest/West Coast will maintain warm and dry conditions for the southwestern CONUS. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a reasonably consistent signal in the slow eastward migration of the upper ridge through early next week. As this occurs, surface high pressure will gradually shift off the East Coast and promote moisture return into the Plains and MS Valley. Tight clustering of GEFS members lends high confidence in the potential for a return of slightly above seasonal moisture by the D6/Monday to D7/Tuesday time frame. Thunderstorm chances should steadily increase through mid-week as southwesterly flow aloft becomes increasingly predominant and promotes ascent/lapse-rate advection over the northwestern fringe of the returning moisture. Extended-range guidance hints at severe thunderstorm potential through the D6/Monday to D8/Wednesday time frame - mainly across the upper MS Valley/Midwest within the warm conveyor region of an organizing cyclone. While confidence in the overall synoptic evolution through next week is high, notable run-to-run variability in the convective environment forecast beyond D6 suggests predictability remains too limited to warrant highlights at this time.
..Moore.. 03/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, March 31
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, March 28 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, March 29 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, March 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, March 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, April 1 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250844 SPC AC 250844
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe thunderstorm potential remains limited for this weekend, though a gradual increase in some severe threat is anticipated by the middle of next week. In the wake of a cold frontal passage on D3/Friday into D4/Saturday, surface high pressure building over the eastern Plains and OH Valley will maintain dry and stable conditions for most regions east of the Rockies. Concurrently, a slight re-amplification of an upper-level ridge this weekend over the Southwest/West Coast will maintain warm and dry conditions for the southwestern CONUS. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a reasonably consistent signal in the slow eastward migration of the upper ridge through early next week. As this occurs, surface high pressure will gradually shift off the East Coast and promote moisture return into the Plains and MS Valley. Tight clustering of GEFS members lends high confidence in the potential for a return of slightly above seasonal moisture by the D6/Monday to D7/Tuesday time frame. Thunderstorm chances should steadily increase through mid-week as southwesterly flow aloft becomes increasingly predominant and promotes ascent/lapse-rate advection over the northwestern fringe of the returning moisture. Extended-range guidance hints at severe thunderstorm potential through the D6/Monday to D8/Wednesday time frame - mainly across the upper MS Valley/Midwest within the warm conveyor region of an organizing cyclone. While confidence in the overall synoptic evolution through next week is high, notable run-to-run variability in the convective environment forecast beyond D6 suggests predictability remains too limited to warrant highlights at this time.
..Moore.. 03/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, April 1
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, March 28 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, March 29 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, March 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, March 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, April 1 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250844 SPC AC 250844
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe thunderstorm potential remains limited for this weekend, though a gradual increase in some severe threat is anticipated by the middle of next week. In the wake of a cold frontal passage on D3/Friday into D4/Saturday, surface high pressure building over the eastern Plains and OH Valley will maintain dry and stable conditions for most regions east of the Rockies. Concurrently, a slight re-amplification of an upper-level ridge this weekend over the Southwest/West Coast will maintain warm and dry conditions for the southwestern CONUS. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a reasonably consistent signal in the slow eastward migration of the upper ridge through early next week. As this occurs, surface high pressure will gradually shift off the East Coast and promote moisture return into the Plains and MS Valley. Tight clustering of GEFS members lends high confidence in the potential for a return of slightly above seasonal moisture by the D6/Monday to D7/Tuesday time frame. Thunderstorm chances should steadily increase through mid-week as southwesterly flow aloft becomes increasingly predominant and promotes ascent/lapse-rate advection over the northwestern fringe of the returning moisture. Extended-range guidance hints at severe thunderstorm potential through the D6/Monday to D8/Wednesday time frame - mainly across the upper MS Valley/Midwest within the warm conveyor region of an organizing cyclone. While confidence in the overall synoptic evolution through next week is high, notable run-to-run variability in the convective environment forecast beyond D6 suggests predictability remains too limited to warrant highlights at this time.
..Moore.. 03/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, March 26
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 30%
- WIND: 30%
- Friday, March 27
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Saturday, March 28
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, March 29
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, March 30
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, March 31
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, April 1
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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