Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, December 28
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over Illinois and Indiana this afternoon through the evening. Severe wind gusts capable of wind damage and a couple of tornadoes are the primary threats.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 281300
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025
Valid 281300Z - 291200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN ILLINOIS TO INDIANA
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over Illinois and Indiana this afternoon through the evening. Severe wind gusts capable of wind damage and a couple of tornadoes are the primary threats.
Mid MS Valley east through IN-OH-western PA
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level low near the MT/ND border with a trough into the central Rockies/Sangre de Cristos. This mid-level low will move into the central Great Lakes by early Monday morning. Strong southwesterly 500-mb flow (80 kt) extending from the base of the trough through the lower MO Valley and OH Valley will feature an intensifying 110-kt jet reaching the MO-IL border this evening before further strengthening to 130 kt over OH by the end of the period.
A surface low over eastern KS will deepen rapidly through tonight as it moves to Lake Huron. A frontal zone extending east-northeast through the southern Great Lakes this morning will serve as the northern edge of the moist sector. A cold front initially over KS-OK will surge south-east. Southerly low-level flow across the moist sector will maintain a fetch of seasonably high 58-62 deg F dewpoints immediately ahead of the front/low.
A rain shield with embedded thunderstorms this morning from northern MO into the southern Great Lakes could feature a stronger storm or two through midday, but the primary severe risk will likely focus this afternoon through tonight. Model guidance indicates the cap will erode near the evolving triple point and cold front by mid-late afternoon. Upwards of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE is possible across parts of central into eastern IL with buoyancy tapering with east extent across the OH Valley. A southward-developing convective band is forecast to evolve late this afternoon through the early evening. Long hodographs and strong 2-3 km flow will favor a risk for severe gusts with the more intense storms and surges with the maturing band. Models indicate the wind-damage threat may persist across the OH Valley/southern Great Lakes tonight despite meager instability. The tornado risk appears highest with cells that can develop near the instability axis and mature before either destructive interference of the larger-scale cold pool overwhelms cellular mode, and/or this activity moves farther east into lessening instability.
..Smith/Weinman.. 12/28/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Monday, December 29
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday or Monday Night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 280543
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday or Monday Night.
Discussion
A deep surface cyclone near Lake Huron at 12Z Monday will occlude as it tracks into QC. A full-latitude occluded/cold front will arc across NY to the FL Panhandle and western Gulf on Monday morning, before clearing the entire Atlantic Seaboard by Monday night.
Scant elevated buoyancy may be present in two regimes on Monday morning. One within the low-level warm conveyor ahead of the occluded portion of the front across parts of eastern NY into New England. The second immediately behind the cold front along the Rio Grande in Deep South TX. Thunderstorm probabilities, while nonzero, still appear to be below 10 percent in both areas. In between, weak mid-level lapse rates should support only shallow convection across the Southeast as the front moves east.
..Grams.. 12/28/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Tuesday, December 30
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms will not occur on Tuesday or Tuesday night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 280642
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms will not occur on Tuesday or Tuesday night.
Discussion
Conditions will be too dry/stable for lightning-producing convection across the CONUS through the period.
..Grams.. 12/28/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Wednesday, December 31
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, December 31 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, January 1 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, January 2 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, January 3 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, January 4 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280838 SPC AC 280838
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
Return flow will ensue along the western Gulf Coast mid-week, yielding air mass modification from the prior continental intrusion. Bulk of deterministic guidance has trended toward earlier EC-AIFS signals of a low-amplitude shortwave trough progressing east across the southern states through late week. While run-to-run predictability and spread across models remains subpar, convective potential should increase by D6-7/Friday-Saturday across parts of the Gulf Coast States. At this point, with only modest cyclogenesis consistently progged, overall severe potential still appears marginal. Latest ML guidance from SPC-CSU and NSSL for the GEFS, and yesterday's NCAR for the ECENS, support this notion with individual day probabilities holding at 5 percent or less.
..Grams.. 12/28/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, January 1
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, December 31 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, January 1 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, January 2 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, January 3 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, January 4 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280838 SPC AC 280838
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
Return flow will ensue along the western Gulf Coast mid-week, yielding air mass modification from the prior continental intrusion. Bulk of deterministic guidance has trended toward earlier EC-AIFS signals of a low-amplitude shortwave trough progressing east across the southern states through late week. While run-to-run predictability and spread across models remains subpar, convective potential should increase by D6-7/Friday-Saturday across parts of the Gulf Coast States. At this point, with only modest cyclogenesis consistently progged, overall severe potential still appears marginal. Latest ML guidance from SPC-CSU and NSSL for the GEFS, and yesterday's NCAR for the ECENS, support this notion with individual day probabilities holding at 5 percent or less.
..Grams.. 12/28/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, January 2
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, December 31 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, January 1 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, January 2 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, January 3 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, January 4 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280838 SPC AC 280838
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
Return flow will ensue along the western Gulf Coast mid-week, yielding air mass modification from the prior continental intrusion. Bulk of deterministic guidance has trended toward earlier EC-AIFS signals of a low-amplitude shortwave trough progressing east across the southern states through late week. While run-to-run predictability and spread across models remains subpar, convective potential should increase by D6-7/Friday-Saturday across parts of the Gulf Coast States. At this point, with only modest cyclogenesis consistently progged, overall severe potential still appears marginal. Latest ML guidance from SPC-CSU and NSSL for the GEFS, and yesterday's NCAR for the ECENS, support this notion with individual day probabilities holding at 5 percent or less.
..Grams.. 12/28/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, January 3
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, December 31 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, January 1 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, January 2 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, January 3 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, January 4 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280838 SPC AC 280838
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
Return flow will ensue along the western Gulf Coast mid-week, yielding air mass modification from the prior continental intrusion. Bulk of deterministic guidance has trended toward earlier EC-AIFS signals of a low-amplitude shortwave trough progressing east across the southern states through late week. While run-to-run predictability and spread across models remains subpar, convective potential should increase by D6-7/Friday-Saturday across parts of the Gulf Coast States. At this point, with only modest cyclogenesis consistently progged, overall severe potential still appears marginal. Latest ML guidance from SPC-CSU and NSSL for the GEFS, and yesterday's NCAR for the ECENS, support this notion with individual day probabilities holding at 5 percent or less.
..Grams.. 12/28/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, January 4
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, December 31 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, January 1 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, January 2 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, January 3 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, January 4 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280838 SPC AC 280838
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
Return flow will ensue along the western Gulf Coast mid-week, yielding air mass modification from the prior continental intrusion. Bulk of deterministic guidance has trended toward earlier EC-AIFS signals of a low-amplitude shortwave trough progressing east across the southern states through late week. While run-to-run predictability and spread across models remains subpar, convective potential should increase by D6-7/Friday-Saturday across parts of the Gulf Coast States. At this point, with only modest cyclogenesis consistently progged, overall severe potential still appears marginal. Latest ML guidance from SPC-CSU and NSSL for the GEFS, and yesterday's NCAR for the ECENS, support this notion with individual day probabilities holding at 5 percent or less.
..Grams.. 12/28/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, December 28
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 15%
- Monday, December 29
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, December 30
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Wednesday, December 31
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, January 1
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, January 2
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, January 3
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, January 4
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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