Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, December 10
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 101621
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
Valid 101630Z - 111200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
Synopsis and Discussion
A shortwave trough, and accompanying intense jet streak with 500 mb winds over 100 kt, will continue eastward through the OH Valley today and off the Northeast coast by early tomorrow. Surface low associated with this wave will progress northeastward from its current position over southeastern Lower MI/southwestern Ontario along the St. Lawrence Valley today, continuing through ME and into the Canadian Maritimes by early tomorrow. An extensive cold front extending southeastward from this low will push quickly eastward/southeastward through the southern Plains and much of the eastern CONUS, ending the period well off the East Coast.
Passage of this cold front will reinforce the dry and stable conditions across the majority of the CONUS, precluding thunderstorms. Modest low-level moisture will remain over central/southern FL throughout the day, but warm low to mid-level temperatures will prohibit deep convection, limiting the thunderstorm potential.
..Mosier/Moore.. 12/10/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Thursday, December 11
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 101652
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.
Synopsis
A broad expanse of northwesterly flow aloft will stretch from the Pacific Northwest to the Southeast on Thursday as an upper ridge builds over the eastern Pacific and an upper trough moves offshore the Atlantic coast. Prior surface cold frontal intrusions into the Gulf will leave a dearth of boundary layer moisture east of the Rockies. With a dry and stable boundary layer in place, thunderstorms are not expected.
..Leitman.. 12/10/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Friday, December 12
Outlook Summary
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S. Friday through Friday night, aside from some possible weak thunderstorm activity near Texas coastal areas prior to daybreak Saturday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 100726
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S. Friday through Friday night, aside from some possible weak thunderstorm activity near Texas coastal areas prior to daybreak Saturday.
Discussion
Downstream of a blocking mid-level high, maintaining near/north of the Aleutians, it appears that the evolving flow may include a short wave ridge building inland across British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest during this period. As this occurs, digging short wave troughs farther downstream may reinforce larger-scale mid-level troughing across parts of the northern Great Plains through Great Lakes vicinity. However, in general, models indicate that the persistent cyclonic regime to the east of the Rockies will continue to lose amplitude, with the stronger mid-level height gradient tending to recede northward through the middle Mississippi/Ohio Valleys and Mid Atlantic. In lower levels, a leading surge of colder air to the lee of the Rockies may stall and weaken across the Mid South through south central Great Plains vicinity by late Friday night.
In lower latitudes, mid-level heights may rise on the northwestern periphery of Atlantic subtropical ridging, as far north as southern Florida, downstream of weak mid/upper trough progressing across the northern Mexican Plateau through northwestern Gulf Basin. Beneath this regime, it appears that gradual Gulf boundary-layer moistening will continue. In the vicinity of a weak surface trough forecast to develop near Texas coastal areas by late Friday night, it is possible that destabilization and forcing for ascent may become conducive to weak thunderstorm activity.
..Kerr.. 12/10/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Saturday, December 13
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, December 13 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, December 14 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, December 15 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, December 16 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, December 17 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100914 SPC AC 100914
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Based on the latest medium-range model output, a vigorous digging short wave trough is likely to contribute to substantive mid-level trough amplification once again across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, into and across the Mid Atlantic Seaboard this coming weekend. It appears that this may provide support for significant cyclogenesis along a frontal zone across the northwestern Atlantic, while a strongly confluent mid-level regime in its wake supports the southeastward development of a large cold surface ridge across most areas east of the Rockies, including the offshore Atlantic and Gulf Basin by early next week.
Thereafter, into the middle of next week, mid-level flow may trend a bit more zonal, at least across the northern mid-latitudes of North America. However, there is notable spread evident within and among the various model output concerning short waves emerging from the upstream blocking pattern, before progressing inland within splitting branches of westerlies across and east of the Rockies. After an initial suppression of Gulf boundary-layer moistening early next week, a developing southerly return flow with moistening that may lead to increasing convective potential appears possible across and northeast of the northwestern Gulf coast/lower Mississippi Valley vicinity. The extent to which this could include a risk for severe storms remains unclear, but currently still appears generally low through at least this period.
..Kerr.. 12/10/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, December 14
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, December 13 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, December 14 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, December 15 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, December 16 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, December 17 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100914 SPC AC 100914
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Based on the latest medium-range model output, a vigorous digging short wave trough is likely to contribute to substantive mid-level trough amplification once again across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, into and across the Mid Atlantic Seaboard this coming weekend. It appears that this may provide support for significant cyclogenesis along a frontal zone across the northwestern Atlantic, while a strongly confluent mid-level regime in its wake supports the southeastward development of a large cold surface ridge across most areas east of the Rockies, including the offshore Atlantic and Gulf Basin by early next week.
Thereafter, into the middle of next week, mid-level flow may trend a bit more zonal, at least across the northern mid-latitudes of North America. However, there is notable spread evident within and among the various model output concerning short waves emerging from the upstream blocking pattern, before progressing inland within splitting branches of westerlies across and east of the Rockies. After an initial suppression of Gulf boundary-layer moistening early next week, a developing southerly return flow with moistening that may lead to increasing convective potential appears possible across and northeast of the northwestern Gulf coast/lower Mississippi Valley vicinity. The extent to which this could include a risk for severe storms remains unclear, but currently still appears generally low through at least this period.
..Kerr.. 12/10/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, December 15
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, December 13 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, December 14 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, December 15 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, December 16 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, December 17 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100914 SPC AC 100914
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Based on the latest medium-range model output, a vigorous digging short wave trough is likely to contribute to substantive mid-level trough amplification once again across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, into and across the Mid Atlantic Seaboard this coming weekend. It appears that this may provide support for significant cyclogenesis along a frontal zone across the northwestern Atlantic, while a strongly confluent mid-level regime in its wake supports the southeastward development of a large cold surface ridge across most areas east of the Rockies, including the offshore Atlantic and Gulf Basin by early next week.
Thereafter, into the middle of next week, mid-level flow may trend a bit more zonal, at least across the northern mid-latitudes of North America. However, there is notable spread evident within and among the various model output concerning short waves emerging from the upstream blocking pattern, before progressing inland within splitting branches of westerlies across and east of the Rockies. After an initial suppression of Gulf boundary-layer moistening early next week, a developing southerly return flow with moistening that may lead to increasing convective potential appears possible across and northeast of the northwestern Gulf coast/lower Mississippi Valley vicinity. The extent to which this could include a risk for severe storms remains unclear, but currently still appears generally low through at least this period.
..Kerr.. 12/10/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, December 16
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, December 13 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, December 14 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, December 15 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, December 16 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, December 17 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100914 SPC AC 100914
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Based on the latest medium-range model output, a vigorous digging short wave trough is likely to contribute to substantive mid-level trough amplification once again across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, into and across the Mid Atlantic Seaboard this coming weekend. It appears that this may provide support for significant cyclogenesis along a frontal zone across the northwestern Atlantic, while a strongly confluent mid-level regime in its wake supports the southeastward development of a large cold surface ridge across most areas east of the Rockies, including the offshore Atlantic and Gulf Basin by early next week.
Thereafter, into the middle of next week, mid-level flow may trend a bit more zonal, at least across the northern mid-latitudes of North America. However, there is notable spread evident within and among the various model output concerning short waves emerging from the upstream blocking pattern, before progressing inland within splitting branches of westerlies across and east of the Rockies. After an initial suppression of Gulf boundary-layer moistening early next week, a developing southerly return flow with moistening that may lead to increasing convective potential appears possible across and northeast of the northwestern Gulf coast/lower Mississippi Valley vicinity. The extent to which this could include a risk for severe storms remains unclear, but currently still appears generally low through at least this period.
..Kerr.. 12/10/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, December 17
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, December 13 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, December 14 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, December 15 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, December 16 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, December 17 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100914 SPC AC 100914
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Based on the latest medium-range model output, a vigorous digging short wave trough is likely to contribute to substantive mid-level trough amplification once again across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, into and across the Mid Atlantic Seaboard this coming weekend. It appears that this may provide support for significant cyclogenesis along a frontal zone across the northwestern Atlantic, while a strongly confluent mid-level regime in its wake supports the southeastward development of a large cold surface ridge across most areas east of the Rockies, including the offshore Atlantic and Gulf Basin by early next week.
Thereafter, into the middle of next week, mid-level flow may trend a bit more zonal, at least across the northern mid-latitudes of North America. However, there is notable spread evident within and among the various model output concerning short waves emerging from the upstream blocking pattern, before progressing inland within splitting branches of westerlies across and east of the Rockies. After an initial suppression of Gulf boundary-layer moistening early next week, a developing southerly return flow with moistening that may lead to increasing convective potential appears possible across and northeast of the northwestern Gulf coast/lower Mississippi Valley vicinity. The extent to which this could include a risk for severe storms remains unclear, but currently still appears generally low through at least this period.
..Kerr.. 12/10/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, December 10
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Thursday, December 11
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Friday, December 12
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Saturday, December 13
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, December 14
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, December 15
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, December 16
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, December 17
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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