Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, October 11
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts and a tornado or two will be possible today across parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Additional storms with isolated severe gusts will be possible in parts of the Desert Southwest and Four Corners region.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 110550
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts and a tornado or two will be possible today across parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Additional storms with isolated severe gusts will be possible in parts of the Desert Southwest and Four Corners region.
Mid-Atlantic
The remnants of Isaias will move through the southern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic today. At the surface, a moist airmass will advect northeastward across North Carolina and eastern Virginia, where dewpoints will increase into the 70s F. MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range over parts of the Mid-Atlantic by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms will develop in the Carolina Piedmont this morning and move northeastward into the lower elevations of eastern North Carolina and south-central Virginia early this afternoon. RAP forecast soundings from near Raleigh northward to west of Richmond around midday have long curved hodographs, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 200 to 225 m2/s2 range. This will support a tornado threat with supercells that remain discrete. The tornado threat should persist into the evening as the stronger storms move toward the Mid-Atlantic coast.
Desert Southwest/Four Corners
A mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward today from the Desert Southwest into the Four Corners region. At the surface, an axis of low-level moisture will be in place from southwestern Arizona extending northeastward toward the Four Corners. Weak instability will develop along this southwest-to-northeast corridor as surface temperature warm. Large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave trough will support scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon. Forecast soundings from western Arizona into southeast Utah this afternoon have strong unidirectional winds from the south-southwest in the low to mid-levels. The resultant strong deep-layer shear could support a marginal wind-damage threat.
..Broyles/Chalmers.. 10/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Monday, October 12
Outlook Summary
No severe weather is expected Monday through Monday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 110455
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
No severe weather is expected Monday through Monday night.
Synopsis
An upper low initially over the Columbia Basin will develop south to the Sierra Nevada, while an embedded vorticity maximum progresses through the basal portion that feature from central/southern CA through the lower-CO Valley into the Great Basin. Downstream from those developments, a low-amplitude short-wave trough is forecast to translate from the northern or central High Plains into the upper Midwest and neighboring Upper Great Lakes regions by Monday night. At the surface, an area of low pressure initially over central NE will develop along a boundary into southern MN by late afternoon or early evening before reaching central WI Monday night.
### Upper Midwest
A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the region on Monday, atop a moistening boundary layer, yielding a moderately unstable but capped air mass by afternoon along and south of the surface boundary and approaching cyclone. Elevated thunderstorms are expected to develop to the north of the surface warm sector over the northern Plains Monday morning within a zone of forcing for ascent preceding the short-wave trough. That convective regime is expected to spread into portions of MN and WI late Monday afternoon into night, amidst a thermodynamic environment featuring MUCAPE generally less than 1000 J/kg. While a few instances of hail approaching one inch appear possible, larger sizes are expected to be limited by the marginal instability and generally less than 30-35 kt of effective bulk shear.
### Lower Colorado Valley into the Great Basin
Increased forcing for ascent ahead of the vorticity maximum is expected to foster an areal increase in low-topped thunderstorms Monday afternoon, which are likely to continue into Monday night. Generally weak instability should limit severe weather potential; however, in areas where low-level lapse rates can sufficiently steepen, the downward transfer of stronger winds aloft could yield a few gusts approaching 58 mph. Some small hail may also accompany the strongest updrafts.
..Mead.. 10/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Tuesday, October 13
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, October 13 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, October 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, October 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, October 16 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, October 17 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100820 SPC AC 100820
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
The 00Z models have slowed the progression of an upper low and associated trough from the Great Basin into the central Rockies on Days 4 and 5/Tuesday and Wednesday. By Day 6/Thursday and beyond, model spread increases in the handling of that midlevel system, leading to greater uncertainty in the evolution of the large-scale pattern.
Day 4/Tuesday
There is some model signal that a subtle disturbance embedded within a belt of enhanced mid/upper-level flow will progress from the southern Rockies into the central High Plains, aiding in the deepening of a lee cyclone over southeast CO. Elsewhere, a low-amplitude disturbance is forecast to advance from the Great Lakes into the Northeast, in tandem with another surface low. A frontal system will connect the two lows, stretching from the lower Great Lakes through the OH Valley into the central Plains. A dryline will extend south from the lee cyclone to along the TX-NM border. A moist and unstable air mass will reside south of the front, especially over the central and southern Plains, where richer boundary-layer moisture is expected to reside.
Isolated severe storms appear possible along the front Tuesday afternoon and evening, especially in the Northeast, and from the lower-MO Valley into the central and southern Plains. The most probable location for organized severe storm potential is over the southern High Plains in the vicinity of the lee cyclone and strengthening low-level jet where stronger forcing for ascent and vertical shear will coincide with a moderately unstable air mass.
### Day 5/Wednesday
The slowing of the upper-air system and the potential for thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday morning lead to greater uncertainty in where the strongest instability will develop by afternoon. Isolated severe storms appear possible along and south of a surface front from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the central and southern Plains. However, confidence in delineating an area of more concentrated severe weather potential has diminished. And as such, the previously included 15% contour will be removed for this forecast update.
### Days 6 through 8/Thursday through Saturday
As alluded to above, spread increases across the models (especially the deterministic solutions) in the handling of the central Rockies low/trough. However, the general signal is for a trend toward a less-favorable synoptic pattern for severe storms by next weekend.
..Mead.. 10/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, October 14
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, October 13 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, October 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, October 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, October 16 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, October 17 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100820 SPC AC 100820
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
The 00Z models have slowed the progression of an upper low and associated trough from the Great Basin into the central Rockies on Days 4 and 5/Tuesday and Wednesday. By Day 6/Thursday and beyond, model spread increases in the handling of that midlevel system, leading to greater uncertainty in the evolution of the large-scale pattern.
Day 4/Tuesday
There is some model signal that a subtle disturbance embedded within a belt of enhanced mid/upper-level flow will progress from the southern Rockies into the central High Plains, aiding in the deepening of a lee cyclone over southeast CO. Elsewhere, a low-amplitude disturbance is forecast to advance from the Great Lakes into the Northeast, in tandem with another surface low. A frontal system will connect the two lows, stretching from the lower Great Lakes through the OH Valley into the central Plains. A dryline will extend south from the lee cyclone to along the TX-NM border. A moist and unstable air mass will reside south of the front, especially over the central and southern Plains, where richer boundary-layer moisture is expected to reside.
Isolated severe storms appear possible along the front Tuesday afternoon and evening, especially in the Northeast, and from the lower-MO Valley into the central and southern Plains. The most probable location for organized severe storm potential is over the southern High Plains in the vicinity of the lee cyclone and strengthening low-level jet where stronger forcing for ascent and vertical shear will coincide with a moderately unstable air mass.
### Day 5/Wednesday
The slowing of the upper-air system and the potential for thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday morning lead to greater uncertainty in where the strongest instability will develop by afternoon. Isolated severe storms appear possible along and south of a surface front from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the central and southern Plains. However, confidence in delineating an area of more concentrated severe weather potential has diminished. And as such, the previously included 15% contour will be removed for this forecast update.
### Days 6 through 8/Thursday through Saturday
As alluded to above, spread increases across the models (especially the deterministic solutions) in the handling of the central Rockies low/trough. However, the general signal is for a trend toward a less-favorable synoptic pattern for severe storms by next weekend.
..Mead.. 10/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, October 15
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, October 13 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, October 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, October 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, October 16 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, October 17 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100820 SPC AC 100820
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
The 00Z models have slowed the progression of an upper low and associated trough from the Great Basin into the central Rockies on Days 4 and 5/Tuesday and Wednesday. By Day 6/Thursday and beyond, model spread increases in the handling of that midlevel system, leading to greater uncertainty in the evolution of the large-scale pattern.
Day 4/Tuesday
There is some model signal that a subtle disturbance embedded within a belt of enhanced mid/upper-level flow will progress from the southern Rockies into the central High Plains, aiding in the deepening of a lee cyclone over southeast CO. Elsewhere, a low-amplitude disturbance is forecast to advance from the Great Lakes into the Northeast, in tandem with another surface low. A frontal system will connect the two lows, stretching from the lower Great Lakes through the OH Valley into the central Plains. A dryline will extend south from the lee cyclone to along the TX-NM border. A moist and unstable air mass will reside south of the front, especially over the central and southern Plains, where richer boundary-layer moisture is expected to reside.
Isolated severe storms appear possible along the front Tuesday afternoon and evening, especially in the Northeast, and from the lower-MO Valley into the central and southern Plains. The most probable location for organized severe storm potential is over the southern High Plains in the vicinity of the lee cyclone and strengthening low-level jet where stronger forcing for ascent and vertical shear will coincide with a moderately unstable air mass.
### Day 5/Wednesday
The slowing of the upper-air system and the potential for thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday morning lead to greater uncertainty in where the strongest instability will develop by afternoon. Isolated severe storms appear possible along and south of a surface front from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the central and southern Plains. However, confidence in delineating an area of more concentrated severe weather potential has diminished. And as such, the previously included 15% contour will be removed for this forecast update.
### Days 6 through 8/Thursday through Saturday
As alluded to above, spread increases across the models (especially the deterministic solutions) in the handling of the central Rockies low/trough. However, the general signal is for a trend toward a less-favorable synoptic pattern for severe storms by next weekend.
..Mead.. 10/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, October 16
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, October 13 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, October 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, October 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, October 16 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, October 17 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100820 SPC AC 100820
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
The 00Z models have slowed the progression of an upper low and associated trough from the Great Basin into the central Rockies on Days 4 and 5/Tuesday and Wednesday. By Day 6/Thursday and beyond, model spread increases in the handling of that midlevel system, leading to greater uncertainty in the evolution of the large-scale pattern.
Day 4/Tuesday
There is some model signal that a subtle disturbance embedded within a belt of enhanced mid/upper-level flow will progress from the southern Rockies into the central High Plains, aiding in the deepening of a lee cyclone over southeast CO. Elsewhere, a low-amplitude disturbance is forecast to advance from the Great Lakes into the Northeast, in tandem with another surface low. A frontal system will connect the two lows, stretching from the lower Great Lakes through the OH Valley into the central Plains. A dryline will extend south from the lee cyclone to along the TX-NM border. A moist and unstable air mass will reside south of the front, especially over the central and southern Plains, where richer boundary-layer moisture is expected to reside.
Isolated severe storms appear possible along the front Tuesday afternoon and evening, especially in the Northeast, and from the lower-MO Valley into the central and southern Plains. The most probable location for organized severe storm potential is over the southern High Plains in the vicinity of the lee cyclone and strengthening low-level jet where stronger forcing for ascent and vertical shear will coincide with a moderately unstable air mass.
### Day 5/Wednesday
The slowing of the upper-air system and the potential for thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday morning lead to greater uncertainty in where the strongest instability will develop by afternoon. Isolated severe storms appear possible along and south of a surface front from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the central and southern Plains. However, confidence in delineating an area of more concentrated severe weather potential has diminished. And as such, the previously included 15% contour will be removed for this forecast update.
### Days 6 through 8/Thursday through Saturday
As alluded to above, spread increases across the models (especially the deterministic solutions) in the handling of the central Rockies low/trough. However, the general signal is for a trend toward a less-favorable synoptic pattern for severe storms by next weekend.
..Mead.. 10/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, October 17
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, October 13 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, October 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, October 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, October 16 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, October 17 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100820 SPC AC 100820
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
The 00Z models have slowed the progression of an upper low and associated trough from the Great Basin into the central Rockies on Days 4 and 5/Tuesday and Wednesday. By Day 6/Thursday and beyond, model spread increases in the handling of that midlevel system, leading to greater uncertainty in the evolution of the large-scale pattern.
Day 4/Tuesday
There is some model signal that a subtle disturbance embedded within a belt of enhanced mid/upper-level flow will progress from the southern Rockies into the central High Plains, aiding in the deepening of a lee cyclone over southeast CO. Elsewhere, a low-amplitude disturbance is forecast to advance from the Great Lakes into the Northeast, in tandem with another surface low. A frontal system will connect the two lows, stretching from the lower Great Lakes through the OH Valley into the central Plains. A dryline will extend south from the lee cyclone to along the TX-NM border. A moist and unstable air mass will reside south of the front, especially over the central and southern Plains, where richer boundary-layer moisture is expected to reside.
Isolated severe storms appear possible along the front Tuesday afternoon and evening, especially in the Northeast, and from the lower-MO Valley into the central and southern Plains. The most probable location for organized severe storm potential is over the southern High Plains in the vicinity of the lee cyclone and strengthening low-level jet where stronger forcing for ascent and vertical shear will coincide with a moderately unstable air mass.
### Day 5/Wednesday
The slowing of the upper-air system and the potential for thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday morning lead to greater uncertainty in where the strongest instability will develop by afternoon. Isolated severe storms appear possible along and south of a surface front from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the central and southern Plains. However, confidence in delineating an area of more concentrated severe weather potential has diminished. And as such, the previously included 15% contour will be removed for this forecast update.
### Days 6 through 8/Thursday through Saturday
As alluded to above, spread increases across the models (especially the deterministic solutions) in the handling of the central Rockies low/trough. However, the general signal is for a trend toward a less-favorable synoptic pattern for severe storms by next weekend.
..Mead.. 10/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, October 11
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 15%
- Monday, October 12
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, October 13
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Wednesday, October 14
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, October 15
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, October 16
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, October 17
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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