Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Sunday, July 26

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail, damaging winds (possibly 75+ mph), and tornado risk remain likely from the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes southwestward into Nebraska, mainly late this afternoon and tonight.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 262004

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Valid 262000Z - 271200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail, damaging winds (possibly 75+ mph), and tornado risk remain likely from the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes southwestward into Nebraska, mainly late this afternoon and tonight.

20Z Update Upper Midwest

No changes were made to the prior outlook. Severe storm development remains likely this afternoon and evening as a very warm air mass continues to destabilize. Weak, but sufficient, synoptic ascent (evident in visible imagery) should aid in removing inhibition by late this afternoon. Initial supercells developing over northeastern MN and far northern WI will pose an all-hazards risk, including locally severe wind gusts, very large hail, and a couple of tornadoes. An MCS should eventually develop and track south/southeast across WI and MI with a risk for damaging gusts and a brief tornado or two through tonight.

NE

More isolated higher-based convection remains possible from central and eastern NE, into western IA, and southeast SD late this afternoon and evening. Very hot surface temperatures and moderate buoyancy will support a few stronger storms with damaging wind and isolated hail potential. Convective development appears most probable along a thermally induced surface pressure trough, from central NE northeastward late this afternoon.

Mid MS Valley

A very unstable and weakly capped air mass is present along a diffuse differential heating zone from northwest IL, into northern TN. Current expectations are for one or more clusters of thunderstorms to develop along the boundary and ahead of a weak mid-level wave/MCV across IA/IL, before spreading south/southeastward into this evening. The extreme instability (4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) and 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear should support organized clusters, and eventually an MCS, with damaging winds likely. A tornado or two is also possible with initial convection along the boundary owing to extreme buoyancy, or any embedded QLCS circulations with the expected MCS. See MCD#1742 for short-term information.

Elsewhere, isolated damaging gusts remain possible with scattered thunderstorms over the northern Rockies and across the Mid Atlantic/Southeast. Weaker buoyancy/shear overlap suggests these occurrences will be more sporadic, with limited storm organization/longevity. See the prior discussion for additional information.

..Lyons.. 07/26/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026/

Upper Midwest/Great Lakes

Initial supercell storms are expected to develop across northern MN/WI later this afternoon, aided by a favorably timed shortwave impulse rounding the Plains upper ridge. Another MCV/shortwave impulse located over the Dakotas at midday will also spread east/southeast across southern/central MN this afternoon. These features will provide support for one or more focused areas of thunderstorm development. Initial supercells will pose an all-hazards risk, including locally severe wind gusts, very large hail, and a couple of tornadoes. With time into the evening, initial supercells may grow into one or two small bowing MCSs. This storm mode transition will support an increased risk for intense damaging wind swaths this evening into tonight as convection spreads southeast along a strong instability/moisture gradient across WI and the Lake Michigan vicinity.

Mid-Mississippi/Lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys

Multiple areas of strong to severe storms will be possible this afternoon into tonight from near the MS River into IL/IN/KY/TN. Thunderstorm development may be aided by a weak shortwave impulse/MCV migrating southeast from IA at midday and into the Lower OH Valley this evening. Storms are expected to develop along a corridor of differential heating near/just east of the MS River where mostly clear skies this morning have already resulted in temperatures approaching 85-90 F, while scattered clouds further east will maintain somewhat lower high temperatures. Thunderstorm clusters this afternoon will pose a risk for severe/damaging wind gusts. Sufficient clustering may occur and some upscale development into a forward propagating bow may occur across the Lower Ohio Valley vicinity this evening, and wind probabilities have been increased to 30 percent for parts of southern IL/IN and western KY.

This activity could be maintained southward during the overnight hours as far south as northern AL/GA given favorable instability and sufficiently strong northwesterly flow aloft. Damaging wind gusts could persist with this activity as it spreads south/southeast across TN into AL/GA toward early Monday morning.

NE/SD/IA

A deeply mixed and hot boundary layer will develop this afternoon/early evening in the vicinity of a weak surface trough from NE into southeast SD/northwest IA. Very steep lapse rates aloft will foster 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Vertically veering wind profiles and increasing northwesterly flow aloft will provide 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes and a few organized cells/clusters may develop by late afternoon. Damaging wind gusts of 60-80 mph would be the main hazard with this activity. While temperatures are somewhat warm aloft, the strongest storms could produce sporadic large hail.

Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas/Southeast GA/Northern FL

Upper troughing will persist today across the East, though some enhancement to northwesterly flow aloft is expected. Relatively cool conditions, weak lapse rates, and the potential influence of smoke will temper destabilization across the Mid-Atlantic. Nevertheless, MLCAPE 1000 J/kg amid 25-35 kt of effective shear may support occasional organized storms capable of producing locally damaging gusts.

Stronger heating/destabilization is expected farther south across the Carolinas into GA/FL. Deep-layer flow/shear will be somewhat weaker compared to farther north, but may still be sufficient for transient storm organization with sporadic locally damaging winds possible.

Southeast MT/northern WY/Black Hills vicinity

High-based convection is expected to develop this afternoon along the northern periphery of the upper ridge, with the greatest storm coverage expected across parts of northern Wyoming and southern Montana. Overall buoyancy is expected to remain weak, but inverted-v profiles will support a threat of strong to localized severe gusts as storms spread eastward toward the Black Hills before weakening into mid/late evening.

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

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Outlook for Monday, July 27

Outlook Summary

Severe storms capable of damaging winds and large hail are possible across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley Monday into Monday night. More sporadic occurrences of damaging wind appear possible in the Mid-Atlantic, Tennessee Valley, central High Plains, and southeast Arizona.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 261713

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Severe storms capable of damaging winds and large hail are possible across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley Monday into Monday night. More sporadic occurrences of damaging wind appear possible in the Mid-Atlantic, Tennessee Valley, central High Plains, and southeast Arizona.

Great Lakes southward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys

Early day storms are possible from southern WI into northern IL Monday, associated with a warm advection regime at 850 mb with modest westerly winds at that level. The overall severe risk is expected to be marginal for hail or wind with any such activity.

Later in the day, a surface trough is forecast to develop roughly from Lake Huron southwestward into southern WI/northern IL, and southwesterly low-level winds will continue to spread moisture eastward into Lower MI, IN and OH. Scattered cells are forecast to develop near this surface trough/wind shift, aided by the late upper trough amplification. Storms are expected from eastern WI across Lake MI and into Lower MI by late afternoon, and supercell mode appears most likely given up to 50 kt deep-layer shear. A low-level jet out of the west at over 30 kt is expected over IL, with increasing speeds into IN and OH into the evening as the upper trough amplifies and convection possibly merges into clusters or an MCS. Models vary on how much storm coverage will extend into IL, with the most likely areas from southeast WI across southern Lake MI and into southern Lower MI, northern IN and OH.

Despite relatively warm conditions aloft, the elongated hodographs from mid to upper levels, and substantial boundary-layer moisture suggest cells may produce large hail. A tornado or two may occur as well late afternoon through early evening, with storm mergers overnight aiding outflow/severe gust potential. A categorical upgrade is possible for parts of the risk area in later outlooks as predictability increases.

Central High Plains

Weak high pressure will exist over the northern Plains with a front pushing south across I-80. Surface winds will back to eastern late in the day, with corridor of higher dewpoints over southern NE and northern KS, extending into northeast CO.

Strong heating will occur beneath the upper ridge, and an uncapped and unstable air mass will develop. Apart from the monsoonal regime over the Rockies, additional multicellular storms are expected after 21Z from northeast CO into southwest NE and northwest KS. The hot temperatures near the moist plume and weak flow aloft will support locally severe outflow winds.

Southeast Arizona

Isolated severe gusts cannot be ruled out over far southeast AZ as midlevel moisture and daytime heating leads to scattered storms over the higher terrain. Cells are expected to move northwestward, with PWAT over 1.25" and steep low-level lapse rates supporting strong outflows.

..Jewell.. 07/26/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, July 28

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and isolated hail are possible from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas and central and southern Appalachians Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Isolated severe wind gusts may occur in the central High Plains.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 261919

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC INTO NORTH CAROLINA AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and isolated hail are possible from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas and central and southern Appalachians Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Isolated severe wind gusts may occur in the central High Plains.

Southern Mid Atlantic into North Carolina and southern Appalachians

An upper trough with a 40-50 kt midlevel speed max will push southeastward across the Appalachians and into parts of the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas during the day, supporting thunderstorms through much of the period.

Storms are expected to be ongoing early Tuesday from PA and WV into eastern KY, near a cold front. This activity should persist as it moves into MD/VA/NC, where a surface trough will deepen. Daytime heating along with ample low-level moisture will support 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, and winds will be veering with height, supporting a few supercells. Despite warm temperatures aloft, the 40-50 kt deep-layer shear may support hail in the strongest cells. In addition, southwesterly 850 mb winds up to 40 kt late in the day may yield an isolated tornado risk from southeast VA into NC. Moderately high PWAT along with steep low-level lapse rates during the peak heating hours will also support locally damaging wind gusts.

Northern High Plains

Instability will increase over eastern WY, western SD/NE and northeast CO during the afternoon as a weak surface trough develops. Southeast surface winds will maintain 50s to lower 60s F dewpoints, with storms forming after 21Z near the higher terrain in WY/CO. South to southeast storm motions may bring multicellular storms across western NE and northeast CO during the evening with a few severe gusts possible.

..Jewell.. 07/26/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, July 29

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260832 SPC AC 260832

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Wednesday

The large-scale pattern will feature an upper high over the southern High Plains with ridging extending into the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. Meanwhile, broader-scale troughing will persist across the eastern CONUS, anchored by an upper low over the Mid-Atlantic.

A very moist air mass is expected to contribute to moderate to strong instability by afternoon along a cold front over the Southeast. While vertical shear will remain rather weak, the strong buoyancy will be supportive of locally intense downdrafts capable of damaging winds. Elsewhere, a few strong to severe storms appear possible within a moist upslope regime over the central High Plains, as well as along a cold front moving into the northern High Plains.

### Days 5 and 6/Thursday and Friday

The southwestern U.S. ridge/eastern U.S. trough configuration will be maintained this period. Between those features, a notable short-wave trough is forecast to track from the northern Plains into the mid MS Valley along with a surface frontal system. Persistent low-level ridging from the Great Lakes into the Gulf Coast states will limit the breadth of an unstable warm sector to the northern and central Plains on Thursday, where thunderstorms are expected. Vertical shear is not forecast to be particularly strong; however, some potential exists for an organized severe weather episode. Additional strong to severe storms appear possible along the front in the Ozarks on Friday. Both days will continue to be monitored for the possible inclusion of severe weather probabilities in subsequent forecasts.

### Days 7 and 8/Saturday and Sunday

There is good agreement across the ensemble means in the progression of a more significant short-wave trough from western into central Canada with the southern fringe of more substantial height falls overspreading the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains on Sunday. That upper-air system will be attended by a cold front that could be the source of severe storm development in those areas Sunday afternoon into night.

..Mead.. 07/26/2026

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Outlook for Thursday, July 30

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260832 SPC AC 260832

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Wednesday

The large-scale pattern will feature an upper high over the southern High Plains with ridging extending into the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. Meanwhile, broader-scale troughing will persist across the eastern CONUS, anchored by an upper low over the Mid-Atlantic.

A very moist air mass is expected to contribute to moderate to strong instability by afternoon along a cold front over the Southeast. While vertical shear will remain rather weak, the strong buoyancy will be supportive of locally intense downdrafts capable of damaging winds. Elsewhere, a few strong to severe storms appear possible within a moist upslope regime over the central High Plains, as well as along a cold front moving into the northern High Plains.

### Days 5 and 6/Thursday and Friday

The southwestern U.S. ridge/eastern U.S. trough configuration will be maintained this period. Between those features, a notable short-wave trough is forecast to track from the northern Plains into the mid MS Valley along with a surface frontal system. Persistent low-level ridging from the Great Lakes into the Gulf Coast states will limit the breadth of an unstable warm sector to the northern and central Plains on Thursday, where thunderstorms are expected. Vertical shear is not forecast to be particularly strong; however, some potential exists for an organized severe weather episode. Additional strong to severe storms appear possible along the front in the Ozarks on Friday. Both days will continue to be monitored for the possible inclusion of severe weather probabilities in subsequent forecasts.

### Days 7 and 8/Saturday and Sunday

There is good agreement across the ensemble means in the progression of a more significant short-wave trough from western into central Canada with the southern fringe of more substantial height falls overspreading the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains on Sunday. That upper-air system will be attended by a cold front that could be the source of severe storm development in those areas Sunday afternoon into night.

..Mead.. 07/26/2026

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Outlook for Friday, July 31

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260832 SPC AC 260832

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Wednesday

The large-scale pattern will feature an upper high over the southern High Plains with ridging extending into the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. Meanwhile, broader-scale troughing will persist across the eastern CONUS, anchored by an upper low over the Mid-Atlantic.

A very moist air mass is expected to contribute to moderate to strong instability by afternoon along a cold front over the Southeast. While vertical shear will remain rather weak, the strong buoyancy will be supportive of locally intense downdrafts capable of damaging winds. Elsewhere, a few strong to severe storms appear possible within a moist upslope regime over the central High Plains, as well as along a cold front moving into the northern High Plains.

### Days 5 and 6/Thursday and Friday

The southwestern U.S. ridge/eastern U.S. trough configuration will be maintained this period. Between those features, a notable short-wave trough is forecast to track from the northern Plains into the mid MS Valley along with a surface frontal system. Persistent low-level ridging from the Great Lakes into the Gulf Coast states will limit the breadth of an unstable warm sector to the northern and central Plains on Thursday, where thunderstorms are expected. Vertical shear is not forecast to be particularly strong; however, some potential exists for an organized severe weather episode. Additional strong to severe storms appear possible along the front in the Ozarks on Friday. Both days will continue to be monitored for the possible inclusion of severe weather probabilities in subsequent forecasts.

### Days 7 and 8/Saturday and Sunday

There is good agreement across the ensemble means in the progression of a more significant short-wave trough from western into central Canada with the southern fringe of more substantial height falls overspreading the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains on Sunday. That upper-air system will be attended by a cold front that could be the source of severe storm development in those areas Sunday afternoon into night.

..Mead.. 07/26/2026

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Outlook for Saturday, August 1

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260832 SPC AC 260832

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Wednesday

The large-scale pattern will feature an upper high over the southern High Plains with ridging extending into the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. Meanwhile, broader-scale troughing will persist across the eastern CONUS, anchored by an upper low over the Mid-Atlantic.

A very moist air mass is expected to contribute to moderate to strong instability by afternoon along a cold front over the Southeast. While vertical shear will remain rather weak, the strong buoyancy will be supportive of locally intense downdrafts capable of damaging winds. Elsewhere, a few strong to severe storms appear possible within a moist upslope regime over the central High Plains, as well as along a cold front moving into the northern High Plains.

### Days 5 and 6/Thursday and Friday

The southwestern U.S. ridge/eastern U.S. trough configuration will be maintained this period. Between those features, a notable short-wave trough is forecast to track from the northern Plains into the mid MS Valley along with a surface frontal system. Persistent low-level ridging from the Great Lakes into the Gulf Coast states will limit the breadth of an unstable warm sector to the northern and central Plains on Thursday, where thunderstorms are expected. Vertical shear is not forecast to be particularly strong; however, some potential exists for an organized severe weather episode. Additional strong to severe storms appear possible along the front in the Ozarks on Friday. Both days will continue to be monitored for the possible inclusion of severe weather probabilities in subsequent forecasts.

### Days 7 and 8/Saturday and Sunday

There is good agreement across the ensemble means in the progression of a more significant short-wave trough from western into central Canada with the southern fringe of more substantial height falls overspreading the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains on Sunday. That upper-air system will be attended by a cold front that could be the source of severe storm development in those areas Sunday afternoon into night.

..Mead.. 07/26/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, August 2

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260832 SPC AC 260832

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Wednesday

The large-scale pattern will feature an upper high over the southern High Plains with ridging extending into the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. Meanwhile, broader-scale troughing will persist across the eastern CONUS, anchored by an upper low over the Mid-Atlantic.

A very moist air mass is expected to contribute to moderate to strong instability by afternoon along a cold front over the Southeast. While vertical shear will remain rather weak, the strong buoyancy will be supportive of locally intense downdrafts capable of damaging winds. Elsewhere, a few strong to severe storms appear possible within a moist upslope regime over the central High Plains, as well as along a cold front moving into the northern High Plains.

### Days 5 and 6/Thursday and Friday

The southwestern U.S. ridge/eastern U.S. trough configuration will be maintained this period. Between those features, a notable short-wave trough is forecast to track from the northern Plains into the mid MS Valley along with a surface frontal system. Persistent low-level ridging from the Great Lakes into the Gulf Coast states will limit the breadth of an unstable warm sector to the northern and central Plains on Thursday, where thunderstorms are expected. Vertical shear is not forecast to be particularly strong; however, some potential exists for an organized severe weather episode. Additional strong to severe storms appear possible along the front in the Ozarks on Friday. Both days will continue to be monitored for the possible inclusion of severe weather probabilities in subsequent forecasts.

### Days 7 and 8/Saturday and Sunday

There is good agreement across the ensemble means in the progression of a more significant short-wave trough from western into central Canada with the southern fringe of more substantial height falls overspreading the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains on Sunday. That upper-air system will be attended by a cold front that could be the source of severe storm development in those areas Sunday afternoon into night.

..Mead.. 07/26/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Sunday, July 26

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 30%

WIND: 30%

Monday, July 27

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 30%

Tuesday, July 28

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Wednesday, July 29

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Thursday, July 30

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, July 31

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Saturday, August 1

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Sunday, August 2

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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