Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Sunday, February 15

Monday, February 16

Tuesday, February 17

Wednesday, February 18

Thursday, February 19

Friday, February 20

Saturday, February 21

Sunday, February 22

Outlook for Sunday, February 15

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and evening across parts of southern Georgia into north and west-central Florida. Both damaging winds and a few tornadoes may occur.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 5%

wind 15%

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 151951

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Valid 152000Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA INTO NORTH AND WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and evening across parts of southern Georgia into north and west-central Florida. Both damaging winds and a few tornadoes may occur.

20z Update

A line of thunderstorms continues eastward into the eastern FL Panhandle/northern FL Peninsula. Ahead of this line, dew points are in the mid to upper 50s. MLCAPE remains somewhat weak inland, though some slow increase is noted ahead of the line amid south-westerly warm air advection and filtered daytime heating. Regardless of weaker thermal profiles, strong upper level flow persists with deep layer shear for organization remaining strong across the eastern FL Panhandle into the northern FL Peninsula. The threat for strong convection with potential for damaging wind and a tornado will continue inland for the next few hours.

A Marginal Risk was maintained across portions of southern/central Georgia where some redevelopment of thunderstorms is noted over the last hour. The modestly unstable air mass ahead of this activity may support potential for isolated damaging gusts through the afternoon.

..Thornton.. 02/15/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026/

Southeast

A mature mid-level cyclone evident in water vapor and visible satellite imagery late this morning over MS/AL will continue to move quickly eastward across the central Gulf Coast States this afternoon, eventually reaching the Atlantic Coast later this evening. Latest surface analysis shows a weak low over northern MS and greater dewpoints present over the northeast Gulf, as strong low-level warm advection contributes to moisture transport ahead of an ongoing line of thunderstorms across the FL Panhandle and southwest GA.

This pre-frontal band of convection is gradually strengthening late this morning, even with modest mid-level lapse rates and saturated profiles through much of the troposphere limiting updraft strength. Boundary-layer instability will gradually increase downstream across north FL/southern GA this afternoon as filtered daytime heating and some increase in low-level moisture occurs (surface dewpoints rising through the upper 50s to low/mid 60s). Peak MLCAPE may reach values of 500-1000 J/kg per consensus of 12Z guidance.

With ample low-level and deep-layer shear associated with the mid-level cyclone present over the developing warm sector, organized convection mainly in the form of an eastward-moving QLCS is expected to persist through the afternoon/evening as this activity moves across north FL/southern GA. The northern extent of the severe risk into southern/central GA/SC remains uncertain due to weak instability forecast across these areas, but some guidance suggests additional strong convection may develop across these areas in closer proximity to cooler temperatures aloft with the upper trough.

Given the expected strength of the low/mid-level flow and related shear, scattered damaging winds and a few embedded tornadoes are possible wherever this line can become/remain surface based. The Slight Risk has been expanded southward to include more of the west-central FL Peninsula based on expectations for the broken line to impact this region amid greater low-level moisture/instability and sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection. For more details on the near-term severe threat across parts of the FL Panhandle and southwest GA, reference Mesoscale Discussion 85.

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

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Outlook for Monday, February 16

Outlook Summary

Strong thunderstorms may impact southern California coastal areas and perhaps parts of the Central Valley on Monday. These storms will be accompanied by at least some risk for damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 5%

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 151713

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY.

### SUMMARY

Strong thunderstorms may impact southern California coastal areas and perhaps parts of the Central Valley on Monday. These storms will be accompanied by at least some risk for damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two.

Synopsis

A strong mid-level trough and associated mid-level jet streak will impact southern California on Monday with an amplifying ridge across the central CONUS. The southern stream trough across southern California will merge with a northern stream trough across the Northwest during the day Monday. Therefore, a surface low which will move onshore along the southern/central California coast on Monday morning/early afternoon will combine with the northern surface low and result in a very strong surface low centered over the northern Rockies by the end of the period.

Southern California

Low-level moisture advection will lead to weak destabilization off the southern California coast Monday morning and into the early afternoon. Most CAM guidance indicates strengthening convection along the front as it approaches the coast. A strong low-level jet and some low-level hodograph curvature may support some damaging winds and potential for a QLCS tornado or two. The primary limiting factor will be the relatively shallow nature of the instability. Some areas within the line may not even produce lightning, but given the convective nature of the line and the strong wind profile, a marginal risk is warranted.

Central California

In the wake of the initial precipitation surge, cooling temperatures aloft and perhaps some heating in the Central Valley may result in a brief window during the afternoon which may favor a few stronger storms. This threat would be confined to a narrow area, but HRRR forecast soundings between 21-22Z show some weak instability, moderately steep lapse rates, and around 200 m2/s2 0-1km SRH. The 2% tornado probabilities have been maintained for this limited duration threat.

..Bentley.. 02/15/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, February 17

Outlook Summary

Scattered thunderstorm activity is possible across Pacific coastal areas and the Central Valley of California Tuesday into Tuesday night, as well as across parts of the mid Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest Tuesday night. However, the risk for severe storms appears low.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 151924

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Scattered thunderstorm activity is possible across Pacific coastal areas and the Central Valley of California Tuesday into Tuesday night, as well as across parts of the mid Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest Tuesday night. However, the risk for severe storms appears low.

Discussion

Continued cold air advection aloft over the relatively warm waters of the eastern Pacific will continue to support thunderstorm activity along the coastal areas on Tuesday from Oregon to southern California. Thunderstorm activity may spread inland across central California where some warming may lead to a pocket of greater instability in the central Valley.

A large cyclone will emerge across the northern Plains on Tuesday. Moisture will be somewhat limited given the cold front currently scouring moisture across the Gulf. However, forecast guidance does show sufficient moistening around 850mb to support some elevated instability by Tuesday evening into early Wednesday. Given the strong isentropic ascent, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible across the Upper Midwest starting Tuesday evening. However, the limited moisture will keep instability weak.

..Bentley.. 02/15/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, February 18

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, February 18	potential too low
Day 5	Thursday, February 19	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, February 20	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, February 21	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, February 22	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 151000 SPC AC 151000

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range model output suggests that amplified large-scale troughing, initially centered near the Pacific coast at the outset of the period, will gradually develop eastward, across and east of the Rockies during the latter half of the week into next weekend. It appears that this will occur in generally piecemeal fashion, as a series of smaller-scale/lower amplitude perturbations. However, given the presence of an initially seasonably warm environment to the lee of the Rockies, potential exists for periodic lee surface cyclogenesis, possible strong.

To this point, guidance has exhibited rather poor predictability with these features, but there does appear at least somewhat greater certainty in potential for substantive surface cyclogenesis by Thursday, across the central Great Plains toward the Great Lakes region. Even so, it still appears that preceding Gulf boundary-layer moistening and inland return flow will only support limited moistening within the developing warm sector across the middle Mississippi Valley through much of the day Thursday. By Thursday night, there are indications that a modest late moisture surge into the lower Ohio Valley could contribute to increasing convective potential, but the extent of the severe threat remains unclear at this time.

Guidance still indicates that better low-level moisture return may commence ahead of the cold front trailing the cyclone, across parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys through Ark-La-Tex and southern Great Plains Friday into Saturday, as upstream perturbations begin to emerge from the West. However, current model output suggests that renewed cyclogenesis may be more subdued, and it is possible that convection may tend to develop and train along and to the cool side of the front and/or outflow, with uncertain severe weather potential.

..Kerr.. 02/15/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Thursday, February 19

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, February 18	potential too low
Day 5	Thursday, February 19	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, February 20	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, February 21	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, February 22	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 151000 SPC AC 151000

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range model output suggests that amplified large-scale troughing, initially centered near the Pacific coast at the outset of the period, will gradually develop eastward, across and east of the Rockies during the latter half of the week into next weekend. It appears that this will occur in generally piecemeal fashion, as a series of smaller-scale/lower amplitude perturbations. However, given the presence of an initially seasonably warm environment to the lee of the Rockies, potential exists for periodic lee surface cyclogenesis, possible strong.

To this point, guidance has exhibited rather poor predictability with these features, but there does appear at least somewhat greater certainty in potential for substantive surface cyclogenesis by Thursday, across the central Great Plains toward the Great Lakes region. Even so, it still appears that preceding Gulf boundary-layer moistening and inland return flow will only support limited moistening within the developing warm sector across the middle Mississippi Valley through much of the day Thursday. By Thursday night, there are indications that a modest late moisture surge into the lower Ohio Valley could contribute to increasing convective potential, but the extent of the severe threat remains unclear at this time.

Guidance still indicates that better low-level moisture return may commence ahead of the cold front trailing the cyclone, across parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys through Ark-La-Tex and southern Great Plains Friday into Saturday, as upstream perturbations begin to emerge from the West. However, current model output suggests that renewed cyclogenesis may be more subdued, and it is possible that convection may tend to develop and train along and to the cool side of the front and/or outflow, with uncertain severe weather potential.

..Kerr.. 02/15/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Friday, February 20

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, February 18	potential too low
Day 5	Thursday, February 19	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, February 20	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, February 21	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, February 22	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 151000 SPC AC 151000

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range model output suggests that amplified large-scale troughing, initially centered near the Pacific coast at the outset of the period, will gradually develop eastward, across and east of the Rockies during the latter half of the week into next weekend. It appears that this will occur in generally piecemeal fashion, as a series of smaller-scale/lower amplitude perturbations. However, given the presence of an initially seasonably warm environment to the lee of the Rockies, potential exists for periodic lee surface cyclogenesis, possible strong.

To this point, guidance has exhibited rather poor predictability with these features, but there does appear at least somewhat greater certainty in potential for substantive surface cyclogenesis by Thursday, across the central Great Plains toward the Great Lakes region. Even so, it still appears that preceding Gulf boundary-layer moistening and inland return flow will only support limited moistening within the developing warm sector across the middle Mississippi Valley through much of the day Thursday. By Thursday night, there are indications that a modest late moisture surge into the lower Ohio Valley could contribute to increasing convective potential, but the extent of the severe threat remains unclear at this time.

Guidance still indicates that better low-level moisture return may commence ahead of the cold front trailing the cyclone, across parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys through Ark-La-Tex and southern Great Plains Friday into Saturday, as upstream perturbations begin to emerge from the West. However, current model output suggests that renewed cyclogenesis may be more subdued, and it is possible that convection may tend to develop and train along and to the cool side of the front and/or outflow, with uncertain severe weather potential.

..Kerr.. 02/15/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Saturday, February 21

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, February 18	potential too low
Day 5	Thursday, February 19	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, February 20	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, February 21	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, February 22	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 151000 SPC AC 151000

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range model output suggests that amplified large-scale troughing, initially centered near the Pacific coast at the outset of the period, will gradually develop eastward, across and east of the Rockies during the latter half of the week into next weekend. It appears that this will occur in generally piecemeal fashion, as a series of smaller-scale/lower amplitude perturbations. However, given the presence of an initially seasonably warm environment to the lee of the Rockies, potential exists for periodic lee surface cyclogenesis, possible strong.

To this point, guidance has exhibited rather poor predictability with these features, but there does appear at least somewhat greater certainty in potential for substantive surface cyclogenesis by Thursday, across the central Great Plains toward the Great Lakes region. Even so, it still appears that preceding Gulf boundary-layer moistening and inland return flow will only support limited moistening within the developing warm sector across the middle Mississippi Valley through much of the day Thursday. By Thursday night, there are indications that a modest late moisture surge into the lower Ohio Valley could contribute to increasing convective potential, but the extent of the severe threat remains unclear at this time.

Guidance still indicates that better low-level moisture return may commence ahead of the cold front trailing the cyclone, across parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys through Ark-La-Tex and southern Great Plains Friday into Saturday, as upstream perturbations begin to emerge from the West. However, current model output suggests that renewed cyclogenesis may be more subdued, and it is possible that convection may tend to develop and train along and to the cool side of the front and/or outflow, with uncertain severe weather potential.

..Kerr.. 02/15/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Sunday, February 22

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, February 18	potential too low
Day 5	Thursday, February 19	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, February 20	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, February 21	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, February 22	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 151000 SPC AC 151000

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range model output suggests that amplified large-scale troughing, initially centered near the Pacific coast at the outset of the period, will gradually develop eastward, across and east of the Rockies during the latter half of the week into next weekend. It appears that this will occur in generally piecemeal fashion, as a series of smaller-scale/lower amplitude perturbations. However, given the presence of an initially seasonably warm environment to the lee of the Rockies, potential exists for periodic lee surface cyclogenesis, possible strong.

To this point, guidance has exhibited rather poor predictability with these features, but there does appear at least somewhat greater certainty in potential for substantive surface cyclogenesis by Thursday, across the central Great Plains toward the Great Lakes region. Even so, it still appears that preceding Gulf boundary-layer moistening and inland return flow will only support limited moistening within the developing warm sector across the middle Mississippi Valley through much of the day Thursday. By Thursday night, there are indications that a modest late moisture surge into the lower Ohio Valley could contribute to increasing convective potential, but the extent of the severe threat remains unclear at this time.

Guidance still indicates that better low-level moisture return may commence ahead of the cold front trailing the cyclone, across parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys through Ark-La-Tex and southern Great Plains Friday into Saturday, as upstream perturbations begin to emerge from the West. However, current model output suggests that renewed cyclogenesis may be more subdued, and it is possible that convection may tend to develop and train along and to the cool side of the front and/or outflow, with uncertain severe weather potential.

..Kerr.. 02/15/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

National Risk Overview

Sunday, February 15: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: low; WIND: 15%
Monday, February 16: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: low; WIND: 5%
Tuesday, February 17: ANY SEVERE: low
Wednesday, February 18: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, February 19: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, February 20: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, February 21: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, February 22: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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