Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, July 29
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this afternoon and evening in the northern High Plains. Severe wind gusts will also be possible today across southern Georgia and northern Florida.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 290513
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OFTHE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS…AND FROM SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA.
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this afternoon and evening in the northern High Plains. Severe wind gusts will also be possible today across southern Georgia and northern Florida.
Northern High Plains
At mid-levels, a ridge will move eastward into the northern Plains today. In the wake of the ridge, heights will begin to fall over the northern High Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward into northwestern North Dakota and eastern Montana this afternoon. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s F will contribute to moderate instability as surface temperatures warm. Low-level convergence along the front will aid convective initiation, with scattered thunderstorms moving eastward across the western Dakotas during the late afternoon and early evening.
RAP forecast soundings near the instability axis at 00Z have MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range. 0-3 km lapse rates are forecast to be near 9 C/km with surface temperature-dewpoint spreads exceeding 40 degrees F. This should support a threat for severe wind gusts with high-based storms that form ahead of the front. The potential for severe gusts should be greatest in the early evening, especially if a cold pool can organize across the northern High Plains. Hail may also develop within the stronger cores.
Southeast
A mid-level trough will remain in place along the Eastern Seaboard today, as a cold front advances southward into southern Georgia and southern Alabama. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints in the 70s F will contribute to an axis of strong instability by afternoon, with MLCAPE likely peaking in the 3000 to 4500 J/kg range. This, combined with 0-3 km lapse rates near 8 C/km, will be favorable for damaging wind gusts. The greatest potential for severe gusts will occur near the strongest instability, which is forecast to be from southern Georgia into northern Florida.
..Broyles/Squitieri.. 07/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Thursday, July 30
Outlook Summary
Sporadic occurrences of mainly damaging wind appear possible Thursday afternoon and night across parts of the northern and central Plains.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 281930
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Sporadic occurrences of mainly damaging wind appear possible Thursday afternoon and night across parts of the northern and central Plains.
Discussion
On Thursday, the pattern will feature an upper trough over the East with filling low over the Northeast, and an upper high from the Southwest into the Four Corners states. In between, a modest northwest flow regime will exist over much of the Plains, with embedded disturbances forecast over the northern and central Plains.
During the afternoon, a surface trough will develop from eastern MT into the OK/TX Panhandles, where strong heating will occur. A pre-frontal trough will also develop from SD into MN ahead of a cold front trailing southwestward out of Ontario. This area may be favorable timed with a weak wave moving around the upper ridge, and storms that form within the surface trough will be capable of sporadic severe hail or wind given 2000+ MUCAPE and deep-layer shear around 30 kt. Possible early day thunderstorms complicate the forecast setup, but a Slight Risk may eventually be added over the northern Plains as predictability increases.
..Jewell.. 07/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Friday, July 31
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, July 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, August 1 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, August 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, August 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, August 4 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280814 SPC AC 280814
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Friday
The 00Z models have trended toward a more intense short-wave trough over the Midwest, which in turn leads to a deeper surface low tracking toward the mid MS Valley. However, the progression of those features will be toward an area of more persistent surface ridging with only an axis of modest instability forecast ahead of the surface low. Stronger instability is expected to reside farther southwest from the lower MO Valley into the Ozark Plateau, ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front. A few severe storms appear possible from the vicinity of the surface low southwest along the cold front. But, given the northward displacement of the stronger forcing for ascent and vertical shear from the stronger instability, the degree of organized severe weather potential remains uncertain.
Elsewhere, an isolated severe weather threat could materialize over the northern and central High Plains within a moist, low-level upslope regime.
### Day 5/Saturday
The Day 4 short-wave trough is forecast to develop through the mid MS into lower OH Valley along with the surface low. Meanwhile, the trailing cold front will advance southeast into the lower MS Valley, where moderate to strong instability is forecast by afternoon. A few severe storms appear possible along and ahead of the front; however, generally weak vertical shear is expected to limit the potential for a more organized event.
Day 6-8/Sunday through Tuesday
Both the ensemble means and deterministic models remain in relatively good agreement in depicting a stronger short-wave trough and attending belt of mid-level flow progressing along the international border from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains in the Sunday-Monday time frame. Some severe weather threat could materialize along an associated cold front over ND on Sunday and the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley on Monday as strengthening vertical shear overspreads an unstable warm sector. By Tuesday, the front is expected to stall over the central High Plains with some severe weather threat possible within the post-frontal upslope regime.
..Mead.. 07/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, August 1
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, July 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, August 1 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, August 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, August 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, August 4 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280814 SPC AC 280814
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Friday
The 00Z models have trended toward a more intense short-wave trough over the Midwest, which in turn leads to a deeper surface low tracking toward the mid MS Valley. However, the progression of those features will be toward an area of more persistent surface ridging with only an axis of modest instability forecast ahead of the surface low. Stronger instability is expected to reside farther southwest from the lower MO Valley into the Ozark Plateau, ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front. A few severe storms appear possible from the vicinity of the surface low southwest along the cold front. But, given the northward displacement of the stronger forcing for ascent and vertical shear from the stronger instability, the degree of organized severe weather potential remains uncertain.
Elsewhere, an isolated severe weather threat could materialize over the northern and central High Plains within a moist, low-level upslope regime.
### Day 5/Saturday
The Day 4 short-wave trough is forecast to develop through the mid MS into lower OH Valley along with the surface low. Meanwhile, the trailing cold front will advance southeast into the lower MS Valley, where moderate to strong instability is forecast by afternoon. A few severe storms appear possible along and ahead of the front; however, generally weak vertical shear is expected to limit the potential for a more organized event.
Day 6-8/Sunday through Tuesday
Both the ensemble means and deterministic models remain in relatively good agreement in depicting a stronger short-wave trough and attending belt of mid-level flow progressing along the international border from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains in the Sunday-Monday time frame. Some severe weather threat could materialize along an associated cold front over ND on Sunday and the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley on Monday as strengthening vertical shear overspreads an unstable warm sector. By Tuesday, the front is expected to stall over the central High Plains with some severe weather threat possible within the post-frontal upslope regime.
..Mead.. 07/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, August 2
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, July 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, August 1 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, August 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, August 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, August 4 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280814 SPC AC 280814
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Friday
The 00Z models have trended toward a more intense short-wave trough over the Midwest, which in turn leads to a deeper surface low tracking toward the mid MS Valley. However, the progression of those features will be toward an area of more persistent surface ridging with only an axis of modest instability forecast ahead of the surface low. Stronger instability is expected to reside farther southwest from the lower MO Valley into the Ozark Plateau, ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front. A few severe storms appear possible from the vicinity of the surface low southwest along the cold front. But, given the northward displacement of the stronger forcing for ascent and vertical shear from the stronger instability, the degree of organized severe weather potential remains uncertain.
Elsewhere, an isolated severe weather threat could materialize over the northern and central High Plains within a moist, low-level upslope regime.
### Day 5/Saturday
The Day 4 short-wave trough is forecast to develop through the mid MS into lower OH Valley along with the surface low. Meanwhile, the trailing cold front will advance southeast into the lower MS Valley, where moderate to strong instability is forecast by afternoon. A few severe storms appear possible along and ahead of the front; however, generally weak vertical shear is expected to limit the potential for a more organized event.
Day 6-8/Sunday through Tuesday
Both the ensemble means and deterministic models remain in relatively good agreement in depicting a stronger short-wave trough and attending belt of mid-level flow progressing along the international border from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains in the Sunday-Monday time frame. Some severe weather threat could materialize along an associated cold front over ND on Sunday and the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley on Monday as strengthening vertical shear overspreads an unstable warm sector. By Tuesday, the front is expected to stall over the central High Plains with some severe weather threat possible within the post-frontal upslope regime.
..Mead.. 07/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, August 3
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, July 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, August 1 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, August 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, August 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, August 4 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280814 SPC AC 280814
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Friday
The 00Z models have trended toward a more intense short-wave trough over the Midwest, which in turn leads to a deeper surface low tracking toward the mid MS Valley. However, the progression of those features will be toward an area of more persistent surface ridging with only an axis of modest instability forecast ahead of the surface low. Stronger instability is expected to reside farther southwest from the lower MO Valley into the Ozark Plateau, ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front. A few severe storms appear possible from the vicinity of the surface low southwest along the cold front. But, given the northward displacement of the stronger forcing for ascent and vertical shear from the stronger instability, the degree of organized severe weather potential remains uncertain.
Elsewhere, an isolated severe weather threat could materialize over the northern and central High Plains within a moist, low-level upslope regime.
### Day 5/Saturday
The Day 4 short-wave trough is forecast to develop through the mid MS into lower OH Valley along with the surface low. Meanwhile, the trailing cold front will advance southeast into the lower MS Valley, where moderate to strong instability is forecast by afternoon. A few severe storms appear possible along and ahead of the front; however, generally weak vertical shear is expected to limit the potential for a more organized event.
Day 6-8/Sunday through Tuesday
Both the ensemble means and deterministic models remain in relatively good agreement in depicting a stronger short-wave trough and attending belt of mid-level flow progressing along the international border from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains in the Sunday-Monday time frame. Some severe weather threat could materialize along an associated cold front over ND on Sunday and the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley on Monday as strengthening vertical shear overspreads an unstable warm sector. By Tuesday, the front is expected to stall over the central High Plains with some severe weather threat possible within the post-frontal upslope regime.
..Mead.. 07/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, August 4
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, July 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, August 1 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, August 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, August 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, August 4 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280814 SPC AC 280814
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Friday
The 00Z models have trended toward a more intense short-wave trough over the Midwest, which in turn leads to a deeper surface low tracking toward the mid MS Valley. However, the progression of those features will be toward an area of more persistent surface ridging with only an axis of modest instability forecast ahead of the surface low. Stronger instability is expected to reside farther southwest from the lower MO Valley into the Ozark Plateau, ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front. A few severe storms appear possible from the vicinity of the surface low southwest along the cold front. But, given the northward displacement of the stronger forcing for ascent and vertical shear from the stronger instability, the degree of organized severe weather potential remains uncertain.
Elsewhere, an isolated severe weather threat could materialize over the northern and central High Plains within a moist, low-level upslope regime.
### Day 5/Saturday
The Day 4 short-wave trough is forecast to develop through the mid MS into lower OH Valley along with the surface low. Meanwhile, the trailing cold front will advance southeast into the lower MS Valley, where moderate to strong instability is forecast by afternoon. A few severe storms appear possible along and ahead of the front; however, generally weak vertical shear is expected to limit the potential for a more organized event.
Day 6-8/Sunday through Tuesday
Both the ensemble means and deterministic models remain in relatively good agreement in depicting a stronger short-wave trough and attending belt of mid-level flow progressing along the international border from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains in the Sunday-Monday time frame. Some severe weather threat could materialize along an associated cold front over ND on Sunday and the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley on Monday as strengthening vertical shear overspreads an unstable warm sector. By Tuesday, the front is expected to stall over the central High Plains with some severe weather threat possible within the post-frontal upslope regime.
..Mead.. 07/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, July 29
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Thursday, July 30
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Friday, July 31
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, August 1
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, August 2
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, August 3
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, August 4
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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