Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, May 26
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with large hail, severe wind gusts and a couple tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of west and southwest Texas. Isolated severe gusts and a marginal tornado threat will be possible in parts of Kentucky. Isolated severe gusts and hail may also occur in parts of the Upper Midwest and northern Rockies.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 260600
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with large hail, severe wind gusts and a couple tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of west and southwest Texas. Isolated severe gusts and a marginal tornado threat will be possible in parts of Kentucky. Isolated severe gusts and hail may also occur in parts of the Upper Midwest and northern Rockies.
West and Southwest Texas
A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward today across far west Texas. At the surface, a low will deepen near Big Bend as an axis of low-level moisture sharpens from the Rio Grande Valley northward into west Texas. Along this axis, surface dewpoints will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s F, which will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon. Near the moist axis, a north-to-south corridor of low-level convergence is forecast, along which thunderstorm development is expected by late morning. Storm coverage is forecast to expand and move eastward from west Texas into southwest Texas this afternoon.
Along the instability axis, MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range during the mid to late afternoon. RAP forecast soundings near the instability axis at 21Z have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7.5 C/km. This will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense storms. In addition, forecast hodographs are curved and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to increase to above 200 m2/s2, which will support a tornado threat. Cells are expected to merge into a line during the late afternoon, potentially increasing the threat for severe gusts. This line is forecast to move across southwest Texas during the early evening.
Kentucky
South-southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today. At the surface, a mesolow is forecast to develop over far western Kentucky this afternoon. To the east of the low, moisture advection will increase surface dewpoints to near 70 F across much of Kentucky, where MLCAPE is forecast to peak around 1000 J/kg. Within this unstable airmass, low-level flow over southern and central Kentucky will be backed to the south-southeast. This, combined with increasing low-level flow, will create curved hodographs. Forecast soundings at 21Z south of Lexington have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity increasing to 150 m2/s2 by mid afternoon, which should support a marginal tornado threat. Isolated severe wind gusts will also be possible.
Upper Midwest
Mid-level flow will be westerly today across much of the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a quasi-stationary frontal boundary will be in place from eastern North Dakota to northern Wisconsin. South of this front, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to pockets of moderate instability by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms will develop across this unstable airmass and move east-southeastward during the afternoon. MLCAPE in some areas are forecast to peak in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range, with low-level lapse rates becoming steep. This will be sufficient for isolated severe gusts. Hail will also be possible, mainly from southeast Minnesota into Wisconsin, where some models suggest instability will be stronger.
Northern Rockies
A mid-level low will move southward across northern California today. To the northwest of the low across the northern U.S., flow will be from the south-southeast. At the surface, a low will deepen across western Montana with upslope easterly flow located over much of western Montana. As surface heating takes place today, an axis of instability is forecast from northwest Montana extending southeastward into far northwest Wyoming. Scattered thunderstorms will develop in the higher terrain and move northward along and near this axis of instability. Low-level lapse rates will be very steep, which will contribute to a potential for severe wind gusts. Hail will also be possible, mainly over western Montana where instability is forecast to be the strongest.
..Broyles/Chalmers.. 05/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Wednesday, May 27
Outlook Summary
Scattered strong storms are expected primarily over parts of Virginia and Maryland Wednesday afternoon and early evening. A few damaging gusts will be possible.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 260544
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA…SOUTHERN MARYLAND…AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
### SUMMARY
Scattered strong storms are expected primarily over parts of Virginia and Maryland Wednesday afternoon and early evening. A few damaging gusts will be possible.
Synopsis
Height falls will occur over the northeastern states on Wednesday as a positive-tilt upper trough moves across the Great Lakes and toward the Mid Atlantic. This will flatten the upper ridge over the Southeast, with increasing westerlies aloft. At the surface, a trough will develop from southern New England into eastern VA, with strong daytime heating. Dewpoints in the upper 60s F will be common, aiding instability.
Elsewhere, a deep upper low will be nearly stationary from central CA into western NV, with a surface trough developing during the afternoon from UT into southern ID and eastern OR. Strong heating within this trough may yield scattered thunderstorms moving northwestward across parts of ID into OR, with locally gusty winds.
Farther north, instability may develop over WI and vicinity, near a southwestward-moving cold front and on the back side of the upper trough. Isolated strong cells cannot be ruled out with gusty winds.
Mid Atlantic Region
Scattered thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of IN/OH/PA within a warm advection zone with westerly 850 mb winds. This activity will generally shift east/southeast during the day, as the air mass ahead of it destabilizes. Possible outflow from this activity, as well as surface convergence within the heating air mass should yield additional cells/clusters during the afternoon, moving east/southeast across VA, MD, and northern NC. Though lapse rates aloft will not be particularly steep, high PWAT along with peak heating and increasing winds aloft will support storm longevity, with possible forward-propagating clusters. Increasing deep-layer shear may also support cellular storm mode. A few strong to severe wind gusts appear most likely during the late afternoon and early evening.
..Jewell.. 05/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Thursday, May 28
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, May 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, May 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, May 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, May 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, June 1 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250843 SPC AC 250843
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Thursday through D5/Friday
The western low is expected to shift northward again and phase with the northern jet stream D4/Thursday - D5/Friday. There is low confidence in chances for strong to severe storms, pending details on moisture, across the Intermountain West and northern Rockies.
Guidance suggests that as the western trough shifts northward and weak disturbances rotate across the Rockies, lee troughing across the Plains may strengthen D5/Friday, bringing a potential for low end severe risk into the central/northern High Plains. For now confidence in any corridors of organized severe risk remain too low.
A cold front will sag southward across the east coast D4/Thursday through D5/Friday as enhanced flow digs an upper level trough across Quebec southward into the eastern Great Lakes. Some low end severe potential may accompany this frontal passage each day, but uncertainty remains high in overlap of deep layer shear with better moisture/instability.
D6/Saturday through D8/Monday
Toward the end of next weekend D7/Sunday through D8/Monday, ensemble guidance is increasing in confidence for a large scale ridge to build in across the central/western US with rising heights and warming temperatures. Building surface high pressure across the Midwest/Great Lakes may shunt moisture southward to the Gulf states. Should this pattern continue to hold, severe potential will remain low through much of the CONUS.
..Thornton.. 05/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, May 29
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, May 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, May 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, May 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, May 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, June 1 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250843 SPC AC 250843
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Thursday through D5/Friday
The western low is expected to shift northward again and phase with the northern jet stream D4/Thursday - D5/Friday. There is low confidence in chances for strong to severe storms, pending details on moisture, across the Intermountain West and northern Rockies.
Guidance suggests that as the western trough shifts northward and weak disturbances rotate across the Rockies, lee troughing across the Plains may strengthen D5/Friday, bringing a potential for low end severe risk into the central/northern High Plains. For now confidence in any corridors of organized severe risk remain too low.
A cold front will sag southward across the east coast D4/Thursday through D5/Friday as enhanced flow digs an upper level trough across Quebec southward into the eastern Great Lakes. Some low end severe potential may accompany this frontal passage each day, but uncertainty remains high in overlap of deep layer shear with better moisture/instability.
D6/Saturday through D8/Monday
Toward the end of next weekend D7/Sunday through D8/Monday, ensemble guidance is increasing in confidence for a large scale ridge to build in across the central/western US with rising heights and warming temperatures. Building surface high pressure across the Midwest/Great Lakes may shunt moisture southward to the Gulf states. Should this pattern continue to hold, severe potential will remain low through much of the CONUS.
..Thornton.. 05/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, May 30
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, May 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, May 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, May 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, May 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, June 1 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250843 SPC AC 250843
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Thursday through D5/Friday
The western low is expected to shift northward again and phase with the northern jet stream D4/Thursday - D5/Friday. There is low confidence in chances for strong to severe storms, pending details on moisture, across the Intermountain West and northern Rockies.
Guidance suggests that as the western trough shifts northward and weak disturbances rotate across the Rockies, lee troughing across the Plains may strengthen D5/Friday, bringing a potential for low end severe risk into the central/northern High Plains. For now confidence in any corridors of organized severe risk remain too low.
A cold front will sag southward across the east coast D4/Thursday through D5/Friday as enhanced flow digs an upper level trough across Quebec southward into the eastern Great Lakes. Some low end severe potential may accompany this frontal passage each day, but uncertainty remains high in overlap of deep layer shear with better moisture/instability.
D6/Saturday through D8/Monday
Toward the end of next weekend D7/Sunday through D8/Monday, ensemble guidance is increasing in confidence for a large scale ridge to build in across the central/western US with rising heights and warming temperatures. Building surface high pressure across the Midwest/Great Lakes may shunt moisture southward to the Gulf states. Should this pattern continue to hold, severe potential will remain low through much of the CONUS.
..Thornton.. 05/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, May 31
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, May 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, May 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, May 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, May 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, June 1 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250843 SPC AC 250843
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Thursday through D5/Friday
The western low is expected to shift northward again and phase with the northern jet stream D4/Thursday - D5/Friday. There is low confidence in chances for strong to severe storms, pending details on moisture, across the Intermountain West and northern Rockies.
Guidance suggests that as the western trough shifts northward and weak disturbances rotate across the Rockies, lee troughing across the Plains may strengthen D5/Friday, bringing a potential for low end severe risk into the central/northern High Plains. For now confidence in any corridors of organized severe risk remain too low.
A cold front will sag southward across the east coast D4/Thursday through D5/Friday as enhanced flow digs an upper level trough across Quebec southward into the eastern Great Lakes. Some low end severe potential may accompany this frontal passage each day, but uncertainty remains high in overlap of deep layer shear with better moisture/instability.
D6/Saturday through D8/Monday
Toward the end of next weekend D7/Sunday through D8/Monday, ensemble guidance is increasing in confidence for a large scale ridge to build in across the central/western US with rising heights and warming temperatures. Building surface high pressure across the Midwest/Great Lakes may shunt moisture southward to the Gulf states. Should this pattern continue to hold, severe potential will remain low through much of the CONUS.
..Thornton.. 05/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, June 1
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, May 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, May 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, May 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, May 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, June 1 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250843 SPC AC 250843
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Thursday through D5/Friday
The western low is expected to shift northward again and phase with the northern jet stream D4/Thursday - D5/Friday. There is low confidence in chances for strong to severe storms, pending details on moisture, across the Intermountain West and northern Rockies.
Guidance suggests that as the western trough shifts northward and weak disturbances rotate across the Rockies, lee troughing across the Plains may strengthen D5/Friday, bringing a potential for low end severe risk into the central/northern High Plains. For now confidence in any corridors of organized severe risk remain too low.
A cold front will sag southward across the east coast D4/Thursday through D5/Friday as enhanced flow digs an upper level trough across Quebec southward into the eastern Great Lakes. Some low end severe potential may accompany this frontal passage each day, but uncertainty remains high in overlap of deep layer shear with better moisture/instability.
D6/Saturday through D8/Monday
Toward the end of next weekend D7/Sunday through D8/Monday, ensemble guidance is increasing in confidence for a large scale ridge to build in across the central/western US with rising heights and warming temperatures. Building surface high pressure across the Midwest/Great Lakes may shunt moisture southward to the Gulf states. Should this pattern continue to hold, severe potential will remain low through much of the CONUS.
..Thornton.. 05/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, May 26
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Wednesday, May 27
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Thursday, May 28
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, May 29
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, May 30
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, May 31
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, June 1
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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