Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, September 14
Outlook Summary
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms should occur across parts of eastern Nebraska into western/central Iowa this afternoon and evening. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and tornadoes all appear possible. Severe thunderstorm winds will also be possible across northern/western Kansas.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 141645
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
Valid 141630Z - 151200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL IOWA
### SUMMARY
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms should occur across parts of eastern Nebraska into western/central Iowa this afternoon and evening. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and tornadoes all appear possible. Severe thunderstorm winds will also be possible across northern/western Kansas.
Central Plains to Iowa
Well to the northeast of a warm front, semi-extensive elevated convection continues at midday across Iowa and the eastern Dakotas into western/southern Minnesota, although there has been a diminishing trend, and cloud cover otherwise remains semi-prevalent across Nebraska and western/northern Kansas.
A key forecast uncertainty remains the spatial location of primary late-day surface-based destabilization and uncertain likelihood of deep convective development toward/just after peak heating. The semi-persistent convection, residual cloud cover, and autumnal-approaching sun angle (and ramifications for air mass recovery) may be factors for confining the most-favorable environment/surface-based potential to eastern Nebraska and western Iowa.
This will be as a seasonably strong mid-level shortwave trough and 50-70+ kt mid-level jet spread quickly east-northeastward across the northern Plains and Canadian Prairies today. While the primary surface low will likely persist across western Kansas, a secondary surface wave may materialize across east-central/northeast Nebraska. Greater low-level moisture across Kansas and the lower Missouri Valley quickly spread north-northeastward in tandem with a warm front, although its exact late-day disposition/placement is a bit uncertain. This will precede a cold front that will sweep southeastward across the northern/central Plains through tonight. A narrow corridor of moderate to strong instability (MLCAPE 2000-3000+ J/kg) still appears plausible across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa into the 21-00Z time frame, coincident and roughly dependent upon surface temperatures warming into at least the low to mid 80s F.
Robust thunderstorms should develop along or just ahead of the cold front by late afternoon/early evening across eastern Nebraska, with strengthening/favorable deep-layer shear for supercells initially. Large hail may occur, but modest lapse rates aloft and a quick mode transition to mainly clusters/line segments will probably limit the spatial/temporal extent of the hail threat. Most guidance continues to show a favorable conditional environment for tornadoes across eastern Nebraska/western Iowa as the supercells/clusters spread quickly eastward this evening, with a 40-50 kt low-level jet aiding the development of ample effective SRH. But, various RAP forecast soundings across this region show lingering low-level inhibition, and it remains unclear whether convection will be able to fully take advantage of the strong low-level shear. Even with this uncertainty, a sustained surface-based supercell in this environment would conditionally be capable of producing a strong tornado.
Otherwise, severe/damaging winds should become an increasing concern as clusters develop and spread east-northeastward this evening, with other late-day high-based development also expected in vicinity of a pre-frontal boundary across southern Nebraska and northern/western Kansas. Regarding the eastern Nebraska/western Iowa regime, weak instability with eastward extent in eastern Iowa and vicinity should limit the severe risk deeper into the night. While deep-layer shear will be somewhat weaker with southward extent across the central Plains, at least isolated severe wind gusts may also occur with high-based/loosely organized convection that develops this afternoon from eastern Colorado into western/northern Kansas along a surface trough.
Southwest/Four Corners
Scattered thunderstorm development will occur later today from western Colorado and southeast Utah into parts of Arizona/New Mexico as a fairly moist low-level airmass gradually destabilizes. Modestly enhanced mid-level westerly flow should be present this afternoon over parts of Utah/Colorado, though it is uncertain if diurnal heating and related instability will be sufficient for an organized severe risk. Still, isolated gusty winds and small to perhaps near-severe hail could occur with the strongest thunderstorms. Farther south, flow will be weaker across Arizona, resulting in mostly disorganized convection. Even so, localized strong gusts appear possible, especially where stronger heating occurs and steeper low-level lapse rates develop during the afternoon. Overall, confidence in an organized severe risk is too low to include 5% hail/wind probabilities.
Eastern North Carolina
A cold front will move southward across North Carolina today. Large-scale ascent will generally be weak, though isolated convective development may occur as the front encounters greater low-level moisture and sea breeze boundaries over coastal/eastern North Carolina. Deep-layer shear within a northwesterly mid-level flow regime will be sufficient for organized thunderstorms, but poor mid-level lapse rates should tend to limit updraft intensity and the overall severe threat. Regardless, any thunderstorms that can develop and be sustained in this regime could produce locally gusty winds and small hail mainly across near-coastal far eastern North Carolina.
..Guyer/Weinman.. 09/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Tuesday, September 15
Outlook Summary
Scattered strong thunderstorms may occur from the Great Lakes southwestward through the lower Missouri Valley Tuesday afternoon and evening, with at least isolated damaging wind gusts possible.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 141714
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM KANSAS INTO WESTERN OHIO
### SUMMARY
Scattered strong thunderstorms may occur from the Great Lakes southwestward through the lower Missouri Valley Tuesday afternoon and evening, with at least isolated damaging wind gusts possible.
Discussion
A potent upper trough will eject out of the Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes on Tuesday, with 20-30 kt midlevel winds trailing southwestward toward the Central Plains. High pressure will build into the Plains behind a cold front, which will extend roughly from Lower MI to central MO to the KS/OK border by 21Z.
Mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will be common ahead of the cold front, with areas of 70s F dewpoints from the Lower MO Valley into IL/IN. Strong heating will occur ahead of this boundary, contributing to 2000+ J/kg MUCAPE, though midlevel lapse rates will be poor.
Early day thunderstorms may be ongoing from northern KS into Lower MI, with weakening expected as the upper trough lifts out. However, redevelopment will be likely along the aggregate front/outflow as the air mass destabilizes. Storms are expected to be primarily short-lived as shear will be weak. However, a few clusters may develop near the front, with some eastward propagation and wind gust potential through early evening.
..Jewell.. 09/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Wednesday, September 16
Outlook Summary
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. on Wednesday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 141916
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. on Wednesday.
Discussion
Stronger winds aloft will extend from the Northern Plains into the Upper Great Lakes on Wednesday as a large upper ridge expands across much of the central to southeastern states. A surface high will also exist over the Upper MS Valley and Great Lakes which will keep the more favorable instability well south of the stronger flow/shear. While a secondary shortwave trough will swing across central Canada and into the northern Plains late, instability should be minimal that far north.
The greatest chance of thunderstorms will be near a weak/stalled front from the Central Plains eastward across the Midwest and OH Valley, where dewpoints of 65-70 F will be common. Early day thunderstorms across this same zone will likely dissipate during the day, with scattered redevelopment near peak heating. Given the generally poor lapse rates aloft and weak shear, the severe storm threat appears low.
..Jewell.. 09/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Thursday, September 17
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, September 17 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, September 18 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, September 19 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, September 20 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, September 21 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140854 SPC AC 140854
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range model output continues to indicate that initially prominent Southeastern mid-level ridging will gradually become suppressed late this week into next weekend. However, short wave developments within the westerlies become more unclear by next weekend into early next week. In general, it appears that a modest to weak split flow will evolve across much of North America, as larger positive mid-level height anomalies tend to develop across interior Canada.
It is possible that diurnal destabilization will remain sufficient to support areas of stronger daily thunderstorm development across the U.S., supported by forcing for ascent associated with these evolving perturbations. However, any associated severe weather seems unlikely to become particularly well organized and probably will remain rather isolated and/or marginal in nature.
..Kerr.. 09/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, September 18
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, September 17 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, September 18 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, September 19 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, September 20 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, September 21 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140854 SPC AC 140854
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range model output continues to indicate that initially prominent Southeastern mid-level ridging will gradually become suppressed late this week into next weekend. However, short wave developments within the westerlies become more unclear by next weekend into early next week. In general, it appears that a modest to weak split flow will evolve across much of North America, as larger positive mid-level height anomalies tend to develop across interior Canada.
It is possible that diurnal destabilization will remain sufficient to support areas of stronger daily thunderstorm development across the U.S., supported by forcing for ascent associated with these evolving perturbations. However, any associated severe weather seems unlikely to become particularly well organized and probably will remain rather isolated and/or marginal in nature.
..Kerr.. 09/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, September 19
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, September 17 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, September 18 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, September 19 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, September 20 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, September 21 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140854 SPC AC 140854
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range model output continues to indicate that initially prominent Southeastern mid-level ridging will gradually become suppressed late this week into next weekend. However, short wave developments within the westerlies become more unclear by next weekend into early next week. In general, it appears that a modest to weak split flow will evolve across much of North America, as larger positive mid-level height anomalies tend to develop across interior Canada.
It is possible that diurnal destabilization will remain sufficient to support areas of stronger daily thunderstorm development across the U.S., supported by forcing for ascent associated with these evolving perturbations. However, any associated severe weather seems unlikely to become particularly well organized and probably will remain rather isolated and/or marginal in nature.
..Kerr.. 09/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, September 20
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, September 17 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, September 18 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, September 19 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, September 20 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, September 21 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140854 SPC AC 140854
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range model output continues to indicate that initially prominent Southeastern mid-level ridging will gradually become suppressed late this week into next weekend. However, short wave developments within the westerlies become more unclear by next weekend into early next week. In general, it appears that a modest to weak split flow will evolve across much of North America, as larger positive mid-level height anomalies tend to develop across interior Canada.
It is possible that diurnal destabilization will remain sufficient to support areas of stronger daily thunderstorm development across the U.S., supported by forcing for ascent associated with these evolving perturbations. However, any associated severe weather seems unlikely to become particularly well organized and probably will remain rather isolated and/or marginal in nature.
..Kerr.. 09/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, September 21
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, September 17 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, September 18 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, September 19 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, September 20 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, September 21 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140854 SPC AC 140854
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range model output continues to indicate that initially prominent Southeastern mid-level ridging will gradually become suppressed late this week into next weekend. However, short wave developments within the westerlies become more unclear by next weekend into early next week. In general, it appears that a modest to weak split flow will evolve across much of North America, as larger positive mid-level height anomalies tend to develop across interior Canada.
It is possible that diurnal destabilization will remain sufficient to support areas of stronger daily thunderstorm development across the U.S., supported by forcing for ascent associated with these evolving perturbations. However, any associated severe weather seems unlikely to become particularly well organized and probably will remain rather isolated and/or marginal in nature.
..Kerr.. 09/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, September 14
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Tuesday, September 15
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Wednesday, September 16
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Thursday, September 17
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, September 18
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, September 19
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, September 20
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, September 21
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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