Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, December 20
Outlook Summary
A few lightning flashes may occur today near coastal Washington, and tonight over southern Louisiana.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 201553
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0953 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025
Valid 201630Z - 211200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
A few lightning flashes may occur today near coastal Washington, and tonight over southern Louisiana.
Dry and stable conditions will prevail over most of the CONUS today, precluding thunderstorms. One exception will be over western WA west of the Cascades, where fast onshore flow, orographic lift, and 100-200 J/kg of CAPE will be present. The other area of some risk of lightning will be over southern LA tonight in a weak low-level warm advection regime. In both areas, thunderstorm coverage is anticipated to be sparse and severe risk negligible.
..Hart/Karstens.. 12/20/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Sunday, December 21
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected Sunday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 201704
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1104 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected Sunday.
Synopsis
Zonal flow aloft will become modestly more amplified on Sunday. Upper-level ridging will become more prominent in the central U.S. A low-amplitude shortwave trough will move into the Northwest during the evening. Isolated low-topped thunderstorms may impact coastal areas of Washington and far northwest Oregon. Along the central Gulf coast, a cold front will slow and become nearly stationary inland. A weak warm/moist advection regime could lead to development of showers. Given the slight rise in mid-level heights, residual capping, and lack of greater low-level forcing, potential for thunderstorm development within this regime still appears low.
..Wendt.. 12/20/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Monday, December 22
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 200726
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.
Discussion
The large-scale pattern will undergo modest amplification on Monday via additional upper ridging over the south-central CONUS and northern Mexico. As a surface high continues to transition east-southeastward along the Eastern Seaboard/Southeast, moderate low-level moistening will occur north-northeastward across Louisiana/eastern half of Texas toward the ArkLaTex. A few thunderstorms could occur within this warm/moist advection regime, but it currently appears that upper ridging and related mid-level capping should considerably limit thunderstorm potential. In the Pacific Northwest, a few lightning flashes could occur near coastal Washington, but this potential should remain limited/isolated while also trending less thermodynamically favorable by late in the day.
..Guyer.. 12/20/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Tuesday, December 23
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, December 23 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, December 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, December 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, December 26 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, December 27 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200836 SPC AC 200836
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
The large-scale pattern next week will be highlighted by prominent upper ridging and anomalously high 500-mb heights over much of the central to eastern CONUS, with upper troughing developing toward the West Coast by mid/late week. This pattern should considerably limit deep convective potential over much of the CONUS, even while a relatively warm/moist airmass will exist across the Plains and Midwest.
With the approach of a low-latitude upper trough and increasing moisture, thunderstorm potential, potentially including some strong/locally severe storms with gusty winds, could occur across coastal portions of central and southern California during the last half of Wednesday/Day 5 into Thursday/Day 6 Christmas. However, the degree of destabilization and some synoptic-related forecast details remain uncertain.
..Guyer.. 12/20/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, December 24
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, December 23 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, December 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, December 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, December 26 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, December 27 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200836 SPC AC 200836
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
The large-scale pattern next week will be highlighted by prominent upper ridging and anomalously high 500-mb heights over much of the central to eastern CONUS, with upper troughing developing toward the West Coast by mid/late week. This pattern should considerably limit deep convective potential over much of the CONUS, even while a relatively warm/moist airmass will exist across the Plains and Midwest.
With the approach of a low-latitude upper trough and increasing moisture, thunderstorm potential, potentially including some strong/locally severe storms with gusty winds, could occur across coastal portions of central and southern California during the last half of Wednesday/Day 5 into Thursday/Day 6 Christmas. However, the degree of destabilization and some synoptic-related forecast details remain uncertain.
..Guyer.. 12/20/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, December 25
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, December 23 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, December 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, December 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, December 26 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, December 27 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200836 SPC AC 200836
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
The large-scale pattern next week will be highlighted by prominent upper ridging and anomalously high 500-mb heights over much of the central to eastern CONUS, with upper troughing developing toward the West Coast by mid/late week. This pattern should considerably limit deep convective potential over much of the CONUS, even while a relatively warm/moist airmass will exist across the Plains and Midwest.
With the approach of a low-latitude upper trough and increasing moisture, thunderstorm potential, potentially including some strong/locally severe storms with gusty winds, could occur across coastal portions of central and southern California during the last half of Wednesday/Day 5 into Thursday/Day 6 Christmas. However, the degree of destabilization and some synoptic-related forecast details remain uncertain.
..Guyer.. 12/20/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, December 26
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, December 23 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, December 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, December 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, December 26 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, December 27 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200836 SPC AC 200836
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
The large-scale pattern next week will be highlighted by prominent upper ridging and anomalously high 500-mb heights over much of the central to eastern CONUS, with upper troughing developing toward the West Coast by mid/late week. This pattern should considerably limit deep convective potential over much of the CONUS, even while a relatively warm/moist airmass will exist across the Plains and Midwest.
With the approach of a low-latitude upper trough and increasing moisture, thunderstorm potential, potentially including some strong/locally severe storms with gusty winds, could occur across coastal portions of central and southern California during the last half of Wednesday/Day 5 into Thursday/Day 6 Christmas. However, the degree of destabilization and some synoptic-related forecast details remain uncertain.
..Guyer.. 12/20/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, December 27
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, December 23 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, December 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, December 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, December 26 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, December 27 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200836 SPC AC 200836
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
The large-scale pattern next week will be highlighted by prominent upper ridging and anomalously high 500-mb heights over much of the central to eastern CONUS, with upper troughing developing toward the West Coast by mid/late week. This pattern should considerably limit deep convective potential over much of the CONUS, even while a relatively warm/moist airmass will exist across the Plains and Midwest.
With the approach of a low-latitude upper trough and increasing moisture, thunderstorm potential, potentially including some strong/locally severe storms with gusty winds, could occur across coastal portions of central and southern California during the last half of Wednesday/Day 5 into Thursday/Day 6 Christmas. However, the degree of destabilization and some synoptic-related forecast details remain uncertain.
..Guyer.. 12/20/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, December 20
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Sunday, December 21
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Monday, December 22
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Tuesday, December 23
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, December 24
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, December 25
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, December 26
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, December 27
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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