Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, October 28
Outlook Summary
A few severe thunderstorms are possible over the Upper Mississippi Valley on Wednesday with some tornado potential. Isolated large hail and damaging winds will also be possible.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 280526
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
### SUMMARY
A few severe thunderstorms are possible over the Upper Mississippi Valley on Wednesday with some tornado potential. Isolated large hail and damaging winds will also be possible.
Synopsis
The overall mid-level pattern across the CONUS will become more zonal through the day today. Within this more zonal pattern, a mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the northern Plains. A weak surface low, associated with this mid-level trough, will deepen as it moves northeastward through the day. Elsewhere, high pressure will dominate through the day and evening.
Upper Mississippi Valley
Low-level moisture will advect northward today as a surface low, currently analyzed across southeast Colorado, deepens and moves northeastward to the Upper Midwest. This will result in weak instability into southern and central Minnesota with dewpoints in the upper 50s. During peak heating, storms are expected to develop near this surface low within the weakly unstable zone. Veered wind profiles and strong deep-layer shear will support a discrete mode including the potential for supercells. In fact, wind profiles are quite favorable within this zone with instability being the primary limiting factor. However, it would only take an increase of a few degrees in the dewpoint and/or temperature for greater instability and potentially a more impactful event. Therefore, while the forecast remains conditional, the ceiling could involve strong tornado potential. Therefore, added a Slight Risk, driven by tornado probabilities, for a small portion of eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin in the vicinity of the surface low near peak heating where a several hour window of severe weather potential may exist. Shear and storm mode will support some hail potential, but the overall weaker instability precludes higher probabilities. The greatest damaging wind potential will likely be along the warm front ahead of the surface low where the potential for upscale growth is the greatest. However, even within this zone, the wind threat should remain somewhat subdued given the weak instability along this zone.
..Bentley/Halbert-E.. 10/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Thursday, October 29
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 280518
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.
Southern Rockies to Southern Plains vicinity
Upper ridging will begin the period over the southern/central Plains to the Mid/Lower MS Valley vicinity. The ridge will weaken across the southern Plains as a shortwave impulse ejects from northern Mexico into TX/NM. Meanwhile, another shortwave upper trough will move east across the Great Lakes vicinity. At the surface, a cold front will extend from the upper Great Lakes to central KS Thursday morning. The northern extent of the front will continue to develop east/southeast across portions of the Midwest, while the western extent of the front advances northward across the central Plains within the low-level warm advection regime beneath the upper ridge.
Southerly low-level flow will transport modest boundary layer moisture northward across TX/OK/KS and the Lower MO Valley. This will support generally modest destabilization in the 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE range, though a few areas across OK/KS may see values approaching 1500 J/kg. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop within the broad warm advection regime, aided by modest large-scale ascent from the ejecting weak midlevel trough, from NM/TX into OK/KS from midday into the evening. Vertical shear is forecast to remain weak, limiting organized strong/severe thunderstorm potential despite modest instability.
..Leitman.. 10/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Friday, October 30
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Friday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 280644
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Friday.
Synopsis
Showers and thunderstorms will again be possible on Friday across portions of the south-central U.S. as a weak midlevel shortwave trough continues to slowly lift northeast across the southern/central Plains. Weak instability and limited vertical shear will preclude severe thunderstorm potential.
Further west, southerly low-level flow will maintain 50s to near 60 F surface dewpoints across southern AZ as a weak upper shortwave trough moves across the Lower CO Valley and Southwest. Cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates atop the relatively moist boundary layer, fostering areas of modest destabilization. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible, though deep-layer shear is expected to remain somewhat weak (15-25 kt effective shear). Currently, severe thunderstorm potential appears limited, but a stronger storm or two could produce small hail. Trends bear watching as any uptick in instability or strengthening shear could support a more isolated risk for severe thunderstorms across southern/central AZ.
..Leitman.. 10/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Saturday, October 31
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, November 1 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, November 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, November 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, November 4 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280743 SPC AC 280743
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 6-8/Mon-Wed – Central CONUS
A large-scale upper trough is forecast to deepen across the western U.S. on Days 4-5/Sat-Sun. Thereafter, an upper level cyclone is forecast to develop over the Four Corners or Great Basin region and slowly progress eastward across the southern/central Plains Days 6-8/Mon-Wed. As this occurs, deepening surface cyclogenesis is forecast across the Plains, and a cold front will shift slowly eastward through mid-week. Some low severe potential could develop across the central/southern Plains toward the Lower MS Valley given increasing low-level moisture ahead of the surface low/cold front, in conjunction with strengthening deep-layer flow. However, large spread exists among medium-ranging guidance with regards to the evolution of this system (ECMWF suite much less progressive compared to GFS suite). Furthermore, calibrated and ML/AI guidance does not show a robust signal for severe potential at Days 6-8. Still, trends bear watching over the coming days.
..Leitman.. 10/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, November 1
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, November 1 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, November 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, November 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, November 4 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280743 SPC AC 280743
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 6-8/Mon-Wed – Central CONUS
A large-scale upper trough is forecast to deepen across the western U.S. on Days 4-5/Sat-Sun. Thereafter, an upper level cyclone is forecast to develop over the Four Corners or Great Basin region and slowly progress eastward across the southern/central Plains Days 6-8/Mon-Wed. As this occurs, deepening surface cyclogenesis is forecast across the Plains, and a cold front will shift slowly eastward through mid-week. Some low severe potential could develop across the central/southern Plains toward the Lower MS Valley given increasing low-level moisture ahead of the surface low/cold front, in conjunction with strengthening deep-layer flow. However, large spread exists among medium-ranging guidance with regards to the evolution of this system (ECMWF suite much less progressive compared to GFS suite). Furthermore, calibrated and ML/AI guidance does not show a robust signal for severe potential at Days 6-8. Still, trends bear watching over the coming days.
..Leitman.. 10/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, November 2
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, November 1 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, November 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, November 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, November 4 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280743 SPC AC 280743
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 6-8/Mon-Wed – Central CONUS
A large-scale upper trough is forecast to deepen across the western U.S. on Days 4-5/Sat-Sun. Thereafter, an upper level cyclone is forecast to develop over the Four Corners or Great Basin region and slowly progress eastward across the southern/central Plains Days 6-8/Mon-Wed. As this occurs, deepening surface cyclogenesis is forecast across the Plains, and a cold front will shift slowly eastward through mid-week. Some low severe potential could develop across the central/southern Plains toward the Lower MS Valley given increasing low-level moisture ahead of the surface low/cold front, in conjunction with strengthening deep-layer flow. However, large spread exists among medium-ranging guidance with regards to the evolution of this system (ECMWF suite much less progressive compared to GFS suite). Furthermore, calibrated and ML/AI guidance does not show a robust signal for severe potential at Days 6-8. Still, trends bear watching over the coming days.
..Leitman.. 10/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, November 3
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, November 1 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, November 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, November 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, November 4 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280743 SPC AC 280743
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 6-8/Mon-Wed – Central CONUS
A large-scale upper trough is forecast to deepen across the western U.S. on Days 4-5/Sat-Sun. Thereafter, an upper level cyclone is forecast to develop over the Four Corners or Great Basin region and slowly progress eastward across the southern/central Plains Days 6-8/Mon-Wed. As this occurs, deepening surface cyclogenesis is forecast across the Plains, and a cold front will shift slowly eastward through mid-week. Some low severe potential could develop across the central/southern Plains toward the Lower MS Valley given increasing low-level moisture ahead of the surface low/cold front, in conjunction with strengthening deep-layer flow. However, large spread exists among medium-ranging guidance with regards to the evolution of this system (ECMWF suite much less progressive compared to GFS suite). Furthermore, calibrated and ML/AI guidance does not show a robust signal for severe potential at Days 6-8. Still, trends bear watching over the coming days.
..Leitman.. 10/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, November 4
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, November 1 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, November 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, November 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, November 4 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280743 SPC AC 280743
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 6-8/Mon-Wed – Central CONUS
A large-scale upper trough is forecast to deepen across the western U.S. on Days 4-5/Sat-Sun. Thereafter, an upper level cyclone is forecast to develop over the Four Corners or Great Basin region and slowly progress eastward across the southern/central Plains Days 6-8/Mon-Wed. As this occurs, deepening surface cyclogenesis is forecast across the Plains, and a cold front will shift slowly eastward through mid-week. Some low severe potential could develop across the central/southern Plains toward the Lower MS Valley given increasing low-level moisture ahead of the surface low/cold front, in conjunction with strengthening deep-layer flow. However, large spread exists among medium-ranging guidance with regards to the evolution of this system (ECMWF suite much less progressive compared to GFS suite). Furthermore, calibrated and ML/AI guidance does not show a robust signal for severe potential at Days 6-8. Still, trends bear watching over the coming days.
..Leitman.. 10/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, October 28
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Thursday, October 29
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Friday, October 30
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Saturday, October 31
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, November 1
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, November 2
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, November 3
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, November 4
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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