Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, March 17
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 171953
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026
Valid 172000Z - 181200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States.
20Z Update
The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged.
..Squitieri.. 03/17/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026/
Synopsis
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a large-scale upper trough over the East with a ridge over the West. Drier and stable conditions have encompassed much of the CONUS in wake of a cold front that continues to push eastward into the western Atlantic.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Wednesday, March 18
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 171636
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday.
Synopsis
An amplified upper pattern characterized by a trough in the East and a ridge/upper high in the West will persist on Wednesday. Surface high pressure across the East/Southeast will foster offshore flow and a dry and stable airmass will prevail across most of the CONUS. Modest boundary layer moisture will exist across far South FL and the Keys, with a stalled front offshore across the FL Straits. A few thunderstorms are possible near this boundary, but are expected to mainly remain offshore.
..Leitman.. 03/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Thursday, March 19
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are unlikely on Thursday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 171851
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are unlikely on Thursday.
Synopsis
The overall pattern will not change much from Wednesday into Thursday. A large upper cyclone and attendant ridge will encompass the western U.S., while an upper trough persists near the Eastern Seaboard. Surface high pressure across the East and Southeast and a prior cold frontal passage deep into the Gulf will result in a dearth of boundary layer moisture, maintaining a dry/stable airmass across most of the CONUS, precluding thunderstorm activity.
..Leitman.. 03/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Friday, March 20
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, March 20 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, March 21 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, March 22 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, March 23 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, March 24 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170612 SPC AC 170612
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper ridge will hold over the Southwest from Fri/D4 into Sat/D5, but will begin to flatten as a progressive, low-amplitude wave moves into the far northern Rockies and Plains. This feature is then forecast to amplify across the Great Lakes and Northeast during the Sun/D6 to Tue/D8 period, while an upper ridge possibly re-builds over the Southwest. However, predictability becomes low for that pattern change.
In association with the northern wave, low pressure with a trailing cold front may develop from the Plains to the Mid Atlantic from Sun/D6 into Mon/D7. Given the antecedent dry conditions, only marginal moisture return and destabilization are expected. While this may support scattered thunderstorms across the Ohio Valley region on Sunday/D6, substantial severe weather is not anticipated.
Behind that system, a reinforcing high will likely spread south across the Plains and much of the East, resulting in stable conditions.
..Jewell.. 03/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, March 21
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, March 20 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, March 21 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, March 22 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, March 23 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, March 24 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170612 SPC AC 170612
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper ridge will hold over the Southwest from Fri/D4 into Sat/D5, but will begin to flatten as a progressive, low-amplitude wave moves into the far northern Rockies and Plains. This feature is then forecast to amplify across the Great Lakes and Northeast during the Sun/D6 to Tue/D8 period, while an upper ridge possibly re-builds over the Southwest. However, predictability becomes low for that pattern change.
In association with the northern wave, low pressure with a trailing cold front may develop from the Plains to the Mid Atlantic from Sun/D6 into Mon/D7. Given the antecedent dry conditions, only marginal moisture return and destabilization are expected. While this may support scattered thunderstorms across the Ohio Valley region on Sunday/D6, substantial severe weather is not anticipated.
Behind that system, a reinforcing high will likely spread south across the Plains and much of the East, resulting in stable conditions.
..Jewell.. 03/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, March 22
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, March 20 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, March 21 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, March 22 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, March 23 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, March 24 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170612 SPC AC 170612
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper ridge will hold over the Southwest from Fri/D4 into Sat/D5, but will begin to flatten as a progressive, low-amplitude wave moves into the far northern Rockies and Plains. This feature is then forecast to amplify across the Great Lakes and Northeast during the Sun/D6 to Tue/D8 period, while an upper ridge possibly re-builds over the Southwest. However, predictability becomes low for that pattern change.
In association with the northern wave, low pressure with a trailing cold front may develop from the Plains to the Mid Atlantic from Sun/D6 into Mon/D7. Given the antecedent dry conditions, only marginal moisture return and destabilization are expected. While this may support scattered thunderstorms across the Ohio Valley region on Sunday/D6, substantial severe weather is not anticipated.
Behind that system, a reinforcing high will likely spread south across the Plains and much of the East, resulting in stable conditions.
..Jewell.. 03/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, March 23
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, March 20 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, March 21 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, March 22 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, March 23 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, March 24 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170612 SPC AC 170612
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper ridge will hold over the Southwest from Fri/D4 into Sat/D5, but will begin to flatten as a progressive, low-amplitude wave moves into the far northern Rockies and Plains. This feature is then forecast to amplify across the Great Lakes and Northeast during the Sun/D6 to Tue/D8 period, while an upper ridge possibly re-builds over the Southwest. However, predictability becomes low for that pattern change.
In association with the northern wave, low pressure with a trailing cold front may develop from the Plains to the Mid Atlantic from Sun/D6 into Mon/D7. Given the antecedent dry conditions, only marginal moisture return and destabilization are expected. While this may support scattered thunderstorms across the Ohio Valley region on Sunday/D6, substantial severe weather is not anticipated.
Behind that system, a reinforcing high will likely spread south across the Plains and much of the East, resulting in stable conditions.
..Jewell.. 03/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, March 24
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, March 20 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, March 21 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, March 22 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, March 23 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, March 24 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170612 SPC AC 170612
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper ridge will hold over the Southwest from Fri/D4 into Sat/D5, but will begin to flatten as a progressive, low-amplitude wave moves into the far northern Rockies and Plains. This feature is then forecast to amplify across the Great Lakes and Northeast during the Sun/D6 to Tue/D8 period, while an upper ridge possibly re-builds over the Southwest. However, predictability becomes low for that pattern change.
In association with the northern wave, low pressure with a trailing cold front may develop from the Plains to the Mid Atlantic from Sun/D6 into Mon/D7. Given the antecedent dry conditions, only marginal moisture return and destabilization are expected. While this may support scattered thunderstorms across the Ohio Valley region on Sunday/D6, substantial severe weather is not anticipated.
Behind that system, a reinforcing high will likely spread south across the Plains and much of the East, resulting in stable conditions.
..Jewell.. 03/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, March 17
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Wednesday, March 18
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Thursday, March 19
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Friday, March 20
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, March 21
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, March 22
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, March 23
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, March 24
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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