Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, November 25
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe storms are possible from east central/southeast Mississippi across central Alabama into northwest Georgia through late evening. A couple of tornadoes, isolated wind damage and isolated large hail will all be possible.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 251915
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025
Valid 252000Z - 261200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE EVENING FROM EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe storms are possible from east central/southeast Mississippi across central Alabama into northwest Georgia through late evening. A couple of tornadoes, isolated wind damage and isolated large hail will all be possible.
20z Update.. Only minor adjustments were made to extend the Slight Risk further southeast across southern Alabama with this update in alignment with recent trends. Occasional rotating cells are noted on radar across central/southern Alabama over the last couple of hours. Daytime heating will continue across this region with occasional stronger cell development expected through the afternoon. VAD profiles from BMX, MXX continue to show favorable low-level curvature of hodographs, indicative of SRH rich environments supporting rotating cells. A couple of tornadoes, isolated wind damage, and isolated large hail remain possible. See previous discussion below for more information.
..Thornton.. 11/25/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025/
MS/AL/GA through late evening
A weakening midlevel trough will continue to eject east-northeastward from the TN Valley to the Appalachians, in advance of an amplifying trough from the northern Plains to the upper MS Valley. An associated/weak surface cold front will move southeastward across LA/MS/AL, though the majority of the convective threat today will be focused along a residual outflow boundary from east central MS into central AL. Low-level recovery into northeast AL/northwest GA will depend on some clearing of clouds/rain, which is uncertain. Along and south of this boundary, that is being loosely reinforced by ongoing convection, warming surface temperatures into the 70s with mid-upper 60s dewpoints will contribute to MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. Forcing for ascent will linger into the afternoon and support additional thunderstorm development, and there will be sufficient deep-layer vertical shear for a couple of supercells. Low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be greatest along the residual outflow (per the BMX VWP) through the afternoon, and then low-level flow will weaken by this evening. A couple of tornadoes and isolated wind damage/large hail will be possible this afternoon into this evening.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Wednesday, November 26
Outlook Summary
Severe storms are unlikely Wednesday or Wednesday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 251728
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe storms are unlikely Wednesday or Wednesday night.
Southeast
A shortwave trough over the southeastern US will move eastward quickly as a second, more intense perturbation, deepens and expands from the southern Great Lakes into the upper Ohio Valley. As the secondary shortwave intensifies, broad and strong southwesterly flow aloft will envelop much of the eastern US, as ridging builds over the West. While the upper-level system matures, a surface low should also deepen, moving from the western Great Lakes into southern Canada by 00z Thursday. A cold front associated with the low will sweep east/southeastward across the Southeast before moving offshore early Thursday.
Showers and a few thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing ahead of the front early Wednesday associated with the prior day's convective cycle. The impact of these storms on the increasingly narrow warm sector is uncertain, but may tend to limit destabilization in their wake. Some heating of a remnant moist (60s F dewpoints) air mass could support weak buoyancy and redevelopment of a few thunderstorms in the afternoon, mostly likely from southern GA and southwestern SC into northern FL. However, weak buoyancy and poor mid-level lapse rates south of the primary ascent tied to the upper trough should limit the severe threat. The cold front will then move offshore Wednesday evening into early Thursday, ushering in cooler and drier conditions.
Eastern Great Lakes into the Northeast/mid Atlantic Coasts
Closer to the cold core of the upper trough, isolated low-topped convection is possible along the cold front Wednesday afternoon. However, surface moisture and resulting buoyancy will be quite limited. This suggests only sporadic potential for lightning. Still, strong flow aloft (1-3km AGL 40-50 kt) could support a stray convectively augmented wind gust near the coast and in the lee of lakes Erie/Ontario, where weak elevated buoyancy will be present.
..Lyons.. 11/25/2025
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Thursday, November 27
Outlook Summary
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across southeast Florida on Thursday. Severe storms are not expected.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 251929
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across southeast Florida on Thursday. Severe storms are not expected.
Synopsis
An upper low over the northeastern US and southern Canada will further amplify Thursday as ridging builds to the west ahead of a weaker shortwave trough over the Pacific. Broad and strong cyclonic flow aloft will overspread the eastern half of the US extending northwestward over the northern Rockies. At the surface, a strong low will occlude over eastern Canada while a cold front moves offshore over the east coast. In the wake of the front, high pressure will intensify as it moves southward into the central US.
With surface high pressure and offshore flow expected in the wake of the departing cold front, thunderstorm potential over the US will be limited to far southern FL. Here, isolated thunderstorms are possible ahead of the front Thursday afternoon. However, weak lapse rates and buoyancy should limit the severe threat.
Occasional lightning is also possible over portions the eastern Great Lakes owing to warm water temps and cold air advection behind the upper low Thursday and Thursday evening. But, with cold thermodynamic profiles only modest supportive of mixed-phase precipitation, any lightning flashes should be sporadic and tied to deeper and more persistent lake-effect bands.
..Lyons.. 11/25/2025
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Friday, November 28
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, November 28 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, November 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, November 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, December 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, December 2 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250901 SPC AC 250901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025
Valid 281200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
Thunderstorm potential should be limited during the day on D4/Friday with high pressure and a dry, continental polar airmass across much of the country. By Friday night, return flow across Texas will strengthen as a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet develops. This may result in some weak elevated thunderstorms late Friday night and early Saturday.
D5/Sat to D8/Tue
Severe thunderstorms may be possible from the southern Plains to the Gulf Coast this weekend and into early next week. Mid to upper 60s dewpoints are expected either onshore or close to onshore by this weekend. However, evolution of the mid-level pattern remains quite uncertain. This mid-level pattern will largely dictate the timing and inland penetration of richer low-level moisture and instability. Therefore, broad severe weather potential exists Saturday to Tuesday, but more specific timing or intensity information is not available at his time due to the large uncertainties.
..Bentley.. 11/25/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, November 29
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, November 28 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, November 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, November 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, December 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, December 2 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250901 SPC AC 250901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025
Valid 281200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
Thunderstorm potential should be limited during the day on D4/Friday with high pressure and a dry, continental polar airmass across much of the country. By Friday night, return flow across Texas will strengthen as a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet develops. This may result in some weak elevated thunderstorms late Friday night and early Saturday.
D5/Sat to D8/Tue
Severe thunderstorms may be possible from the southern Plains to the Gulf Coast this weekend and into early next week. Mid to upper 60s dewpoints are expected either onshore or close to onshore by this weekend. However, evolution of the mid-level pattern remains quite uncertain. This mid-level pattern will largely dictate the timing and inland penetration of richer low-level moisture and instability. Therefore, broad severe weather potential exists Saturday to Tuesday, but more specific timing or intensity information is not available at his time due to the large uncertainties.
..Bentley.. 11/25/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, November 30
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, November 28 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, November 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, November 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, December 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, December 2 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250901 SPC AC 250901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025
Valid 281200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
Thunderstorm potential should be limited during the day on D4/Friday with high pressure and a dry, continental polar airmass across much of the country. By Friday night, return flow across Texas will strengthen as a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet develops. This may result in some weak elevated thunderstorms late Friday night and early Saturday.
D5/Sat to D8/Tue
Severe thunderstorms may be possible from the southern Plains to the Gulf Coast this weekend and into early next week. Mid to upper 60s dewpoints are expected either onshore or close to onshore by this weekend. However, evolution of the mid-level pattern remains quite uncertain. This mid-level pattern will largely dictate the timing and inland penetration of richer low-level moisture and instability. Therefore, broad severe weather potential exists Saturday to Tuesday, but more specific timing or intensity information is not available at his time due to the large uncertainties.
..Bentley.. 11/25/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, December 1
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, November 28 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, November 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, November 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, December 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, December 2 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250901 SPC AC 250901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025
Valid 281200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
Thunderstorm potential should be limited during the day on D4/Friday with high pressure and a dry, continental polar airmass across much of the country. By Friday night, return flow across Texas will strengthen as a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet develops. This may result in some weak elevated thunderstorms late Friday night and early Saturday.
D5/Sat to D8/Tue
Severe thunderstorms may be possible from the southern Plains to the Gulf Coast this weekend and into early next week. Mid to upper 60s dewpoints are expected either onshore or close to onshore by this weekend. However, evolution of the mid-level pattern remains quite uncertain. This mid-level pattern will largely dictate the timing and inland penetration of richer low-level moisture and instability. Therefore, broad severe weather potential exists Saturday to Tuesday, but more specific timing or intensity information is not available at his time due to the large uncertainties.
..Bentley.. 11/25/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, December 2
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, November 28 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, November 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, November 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, December 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, December 2 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250901 SPC AC 250901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025
Valid 281200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
Thunderstorm potential should be limited during the day on D4/Friday with high pressure and a dry, continental polar airmass across much of the country. By Friday night, return flow across Texas will strengthen as a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet develops. This may result in some weak elevated thunderstorms late Friday night and early Saturday.
D5/Sat to D8/Tue
Severe thunderstorms may be possible from the southern Plains to the Gulf Coast this weekend and into early next week. Mid to upper 60s dewpoints are expected either onshore or close to onshore by this weekend. However, evolution of the mid-level pattern remains quite uncertain. This mid-level pattern will largely dictate the timing and inland penetration of richer low-level moisture and instability. Therefore, broad severe weather potential exists Saturday to Tuesday, but more specific timing or intensity information is not available at his time due to the large uncertainties.
..Bentley.. 11/25/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, November 25
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Wednesday, November 26
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Thursday, November 27
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Friday, November 28
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, November 29
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, November 30
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, December 1
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, December 2
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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