Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, September 6
Outlook Summary
Widely scattered large hail occurrences with hailstones up to two inches are expected over portions of western and central Montana this evening into tonight. More sporadic occurrences of large hail and severe wind gusts appear possible over the northern and central High Plains, and across parts of the lower Missouri Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 070040
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 PM CDT Sun Sep 06 2026
Valid 070100Z - 071200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MONTANA AND OVER A SMALL PART OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Widely scattered large hail occurrences with hailstones up to two inches are expected over portions of western and central Montana this evening into tonight. More sporadic occurrences of large hail and severe wind gusts appear possible over the northern and central High Plains, and across parts of the lower Missouri Valley.
Northern Rockies into the northern Plains
Separate vorticity lobes and associated wind maxima will progress into the northern Rockies and northern High Plains tonight with a resultant zone of height falls/forcing for ascent overspreading the region. In the lower levels, a surface cyclone will be maintained over southeast MT while a nocturnal jet develops over the northern and central High Plains.
Thunderstorms currently intensifying over western MT are expected to increase in coverage and intensity while spreading into north-central MT ahead of the western vorticity lobe rounding the base of the Pacific Northwest upper low. While the boundary layer is somewhat cool/stable, the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, MUCAPE up to 1000-1500 J/kg, and 40-45 kt of effective bulk shear will be supportive of supercells with the primary hazard being large hail up to two inches.
Farther east, isolated to widely scattered storms have developed along and ahead of a lee trough and the MT surface low from western ND into northeast CO within a steep lapse rate and moderately unstable environment (see the 00Z UNR and LBF soundings). Veering winds with height with up to 35-40 kt of deep-layer shear are sufficient to support an observed supercell storm mode with the primary hazards being large hail potentially in excess of two inches and locally severe wind gusts. A tornado was recently reported with a slow-moving supercell over McKenzie County, ND. However, sizable temperature-dewpoint spreads within the inflow air mass, and the tendency for increasing convective inhibition in the coming hours are likely to limit a continuing tornado threat despite increasing low-level shear.
Storm coverage is expected to remain limited through the remainder of the evening with a potential increase later tonight with the arrival of the eastern vorticity lobe and strengthening low-level jet. As such, the threat for sporadic large hail and severe wind gust occurrences may linger into the overnight hours from eastern MT into the western parts of the Dakotas and NE.
For additional information, see recently issued mesoscale discussion #2259.
### Lower Missouri Valley
Widely scattered strong to severe storms are ongoing this evening over parts of southeast NE, northeast KS, and northwest MO with activity focused along outflow boundaries and a synoptic front in the area. The inflow air mass remains hot and relatively moist as of 00Z with observed soundings indicating steep low-level lapse rates with MLCAPE up to 1500-3000 J/kg. The 00Z TOP sounding sampled around 30 kt of deep-layer shear, which will remain supportive of episodic supercell structures for the next couple of hours with an associated risk for large hail and locally damaging wind gusts.
For additional information, see recently issued mesoscale discussion #2258.
..Mead.. 09/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Monday, September 7
Outlook Summary
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern and central Plains into Minnesota on Monday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 061716
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 PM CDT Sun Sep 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES
### SUMMARY
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern and central Plains into Minnesota on Monday.
Synopsis
A mid-level shortwave trough will take on increasingly negative tilt on Monday as it lifts north-northeast along the northwest periphery of a central CONUS ridge. At the same time, a subtle, low-amplitude short-wave trough currently over the Pacific Ocean off the coast of Southern California will quickly move northeast ahead of the main wave.
At the surface, an anticyclone over the Upper Great Lakes will maintain south-southeasterly flow across the Plains, sustaining mid-to-upper-60Fs dewpoints across the Missouri Valley into the Dakotas and western Minnesota. A weak low across eastern Montana will eventually redevelop northward into the Canadian Prairies overnight. As this happens, a cold front will move east across the Northern Plains.
### Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest
The lead short-wave trough will be approaching the north-central US at the start of the forecast period (Monday morning). As the associated mid-level jet approaches, the low-level jet will increase and spread northward across the Plains. On the nose of this jet, elevated convection is likely to be ongoing in response to the warm-air advection. Latest model guidance maintains the low-level jet through the day and subsequently the morning convection is likely to persist through the day as it moves northeast toward western Minnesota. Although widespread cloud cover and moist mid-level profiles will limit instability, the degree of the cloud-layer shear will support at least some potential for hail with these elevated storms.
To the southwest of the morning convection, clearing clouds will give way to robust heating allowing surface temperatures to climb into the upper-80Fs to mid-90Fs, with even hotter surface temperatures across western Nebraska. This will allow strong instability to develop by late afternoon ahead of the surface cold front/dry line.
Isolated to perhaps scattered thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon along the surface front/dryline. However, low-level convergence along this boundary will be somewhat weak, with southerly/southwesterly flow ahead of it. At the same time, large-scale subsidence will likely be occurring in the wake of the morning convection. This should limit storm coverage across western South Dakota and western Nebraska. Northwest North Dakota and eastern Montana will be closer to the main wave as its associated better large-scale ascent. Thus, storm coverage may be slightly higher here during the afternoon. Isolated large hail and strong wind gusts will be possible with any of these storms.
Overnight, the low-level jet increases in response to the main wave approaching the area. This should result in additional elevated thunderstorm development from northeast Nebraska into the eastern Dakotas. This activity should continue east across Minnesota through the overnight. Overall instability should be on the low side given the convection from the lead shortwave, but strong cloud-layer shear could support a hail and wind threat with the strongest elevated convection.
..Marsh.. 09/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Tuesday, September 8
Outlook Summary
Strong to severe storms are possible on Tuesday from Nebraska into the Upper Midwest.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 061926
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Sep 06 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
### SUMMARY
Strong to severe storms are possible on Tuesday from Nebraska into the Upper Midwest.
Central Plains to the Upper Midwest
Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across portions of the Upper Midwest at the start of the forecast period. These storms will be primarily driven by strong warm-air advection along and ahead of a surface cold front moving east across the region in association with a short-wave trough moving across the southern Canadian Prairies. These morning storms may pose a marginal risk for hail and wind before weakening during the day as the low-level jet veers and weakens.
In the wake of the morning convection, diurnal heating of a moist airmass south of the residual surface boundary will result an unstable airmass by late afternoon. Large scale forcing for ascent along the boundary will be nebulous so local-scale processes will likely govern if and where afternoon storms may develop. Vertical shear decreases with southward extent, but a threat of large hail and damaging winds will be possible with any afternoon thunderstorms.
By late evening into the overnight another short-wave trough will quickly race east into the Plains. In response to this feature, the low-level jet will once again increase, providing some forcing for ascent along isentropic surfaces along and north of the front. These storms should be able to tap into elevated instability and sufficient cloud-layer shear to support a threat for isolated wind and hail overnight.
..Marsh.. 09/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Wednesday, September 9
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, September 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, September 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, September 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, September 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060749 SPC AC 060749
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 AM CDT Sun Sep 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper shortwave trough will move from the Great Lakes and over the Northeast through Day 5/Thursday. As this occurs, a cold front will develop southeast and east across much of the Midwest and Northeast. Some strong to severe thunderstorm potential could develop near the front, especially on Wednesday across parts of the Midwest. However, deep-layer flow will largely remain parallel to the boundary and stronger flow aloft will remain displaced to the north of better instability.
Lower amplitude westerly upper-level flow is expected on Day 6/Friday before another upper trough digs southeast across the western U.S. and emerges into the Plains by Day 8/Sunday. Some severe potential could return to the Plains during the weekend as low-level moisture returns across the region and lee cyclogenesis occurs with the approach of the late-period upper trough. Trends will be monitored and probabilities may become necessary across parts of the central Plains vicinity if confidence in severe potential increase.
..Leitman.. 09/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, September 10
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, September 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, September 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, September 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, September 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060749 SPC AC 060749
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 AM CDT Sun Sep 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper shortwave trough will move from the Great Lakes and over the Northeast through Day 5/Thursday. As this occurs, a cold front will develop southeast and east across much of the Midwest and Northeast. Some strong to severe thunderstorm potential could develop near the front, especially on Wednesday across parts of the Midwest. However, deep-layer flow will largely remain parallel to the boundary and stronger flow aloft will remain displaced to the north of better instability.
Lower amplitude westerly upper-level flow is expected on Day 6/Friday before another upper trough digs southeast across the western U.S. and emerges into the Plains by Day 8/Sunday. Some severe potential could return to the Plains during the weekend as low-level moisture returns across the region and lee cyclogenesis occurs with the approach of the late-period upper trough. Trends will be monitored and probabilities may become necessary across parts of the central Plains vicinity if confidence in severe potential increase.
..Leitman.. 09/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, September 11
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, September 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, September 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, September 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, September 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060749 SPC AC 060749
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 AM CDT Sun Sep 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper shortwave trough will move from the Great Lakes and over the Northeast through Day 5/Thursday. As this occurs, a cold front will develop southeast and east across much of the Midwest and Northeast. Some strong to severe thunderstorm potential could develop near the front, especially on Wednesday across parts of the Midwest. However, deep-layer flow will largely remain parallel to the boundary and stronger flow aloft will remain displaced to the north of better instability.
Lower amplitude westerly upper-level flow is expected on Day 6/Friday before another upper trough digs southeast across the western U.S. and emerges into the Plains by Day 8/Sunday. Some severe potential could return to the Plains during the weekend as low-level moisture returns across the region and lee cyclogenesis occurs with the approach of the late-period upper trough. Trends will be monitored and probabilities may become necessary across parts of the central Plains vicinity if confidence in severe potential increase.
..Leitman.. 09/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, September 12
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, September 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, September 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, September 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, September 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060749 SPC AC 060749
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 AM CDT Sun Sep 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper shortwave trough will move from the Great Lakes and over the Northeast through Day 5/Thursday. As this occurs, a cold front will develop southeast and east across much of the Midwest and Northeast. Some strong to severe thunderstorm potential could develop near the front, especially on Wednesday across parts of the Midwest. However, deep-layer flow will largely remain parallel to the boundary and stronger flow aloft will remain displaced to the north of better instability.
Lower amplitude westerly upper-level flow is expected on Day 6/Friday before another upper trough digs southeast across the western U.S. and emerges into the Plains by Day 8/Sunday. Some severe potential could return to the Plains during the weekend as low-level moisture returns across the region and lee cyclogenesis occurs with the approach of the late-period upper trough. Trends will be monitored and probabilities may become necessary across parts of the central Plains vicinity if confidence in severe potential increase.
..Leitman.. 09/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, September 13
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, September 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, September 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, September 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, September 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060749 SPC AC 060749
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 AM CDT Sun Sep 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper shortwave trough will move from the Great Lakes and over the Northeast through Day 5/Thursday. As this occurs, a cold front will develop southeast and east across much of the Midwest and Northeast. Some strong to severe thunderstorm potential could develop near the front, especially on Wednesday across parts of the Midwest. However, deep-layer flow will largely remain parallel to the boundary and stronger flow aloft will remain displaced to the north of better instability.
Lower amplitude westerly upper-level flow is expected on Day 6/Friday before another upper trough digs southeast across the western U.S. and emerges into the Plains by Day 8/Sunday. Some severe potential could return to the Plains during the weekend as low-level moisture returns across the region and lee cyclogenesis occurs with the approach of the late-period upper trough. Trends will be monitored and probabilities may become necessary across parts of the central Plains vicinity if confidence in severe potential increase.
..Leitman.. 09/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, September 6
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Monday, September 7
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Tuesday, September 8
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Wednesday, September 9
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, September 10
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, September 11
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, September 12
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, September 13
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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