Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, November 29
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible across portions of east and southeast Texas into western Louisiana tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 300045
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025
Valid 300100Z - 301200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible across portions of east and southeast Texas into western Louisiana tonight.
Southeast TX and western LA
Water vapor imagery shows an upper trough over the Plains lifting into the Midwest and western Great Lakes this evening. Ascent attendant to the trough was passing over parts of southeast TX and western LA. A surface low over KS will continue to deepen as it lifts northward into the Midwest this evening. Southerly low-level flow along the TX coast will continue transporting a partially modified Gulf air mass northward ahead of a strong cold front trailing the low. This front will surge south, gradually shrinking the already confined warm sector over the southeastern TX Coastal Plain tonight.
Within the shrinking warm sector, scattered showers and a few weak thunderstorms may slowly intensify with continued low-level warm advection over east/southeast TX and far western LA. Around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE will support occasional stronger updrafts despite only modest mid-level lapse rates and nebulous ascent. Veering low-level hodographs could support weak updraft rotation with the strongest cells. A brief tornado, marginal hail and occasional strong gusts are possible, especially near a diffuse warm front across east TX and far western LA. These storms will persist tonight and eventually merge with the cold front moving south.
Isolated thunderstorms along the front over north TX should continue to increase in coverage as the front surges south into more robust surface moisture. Current guidance shows these storms eventually merging with the warm sector convection and moving offshore between 10-12z Sunday. While surface temperatures should gradually cool this evening, sufficient moisture and weak buoyancy will maintain a risk for damaging gusts and perhaps some hail with the stronger cores. This appears most likely near the coast where the front will be less likely to undercut ongoing convection. The severe risk will quickly decrease into early Sunday as the front and remaining warm sector are pushed offshore.
..Lyons.. 11/30/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Sunday, November 30
Outlook Summary
A few thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 291645
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025
Valid 301200Z - 011200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
A few thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
Gulf Coast vicinity
Broad upper troughing will envelop much of the CONUS on Sunday, with one embedded shortwave traversing the Midwest to Northeast, while a second shortwave deepens as it moves from the Northwest into the Plains. At the surface, high pressure will build over the Plains early in the day and overspread much of the country by early Monday.
Early Sunday on the southern/eastern periphery of the surface high, a cold front will extend from VA/NC southwestward across the Deep South and northwest Gulf into South Texas. The front will progress south and east through the period, eventually moving offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts and into central FL. Modest instability is expected to develop mainly offshore over the Gulf and perhaps the FL Peninsula ahead of the cold front. Isolated thunderstorms may develop near the coast within a band of moist/warm advection aided by modest midlevel southwesterly flow atop the surface frontal zone. Severe storms are not expected.
..Leitman.. 11/29/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Monday, December 1
Outlook Summary
Scattered thunderstorms may develop along the Gulf Coast Monday into early Tuesday morning. Severe thunderstorms are not currently expected.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 291800
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Scattered thunderstorms may develop along the Gulf Coast Monday into early Tuesday morning. Severe thunderstorms are not currently expected.
Gulf Coast/Southeast
An upper trough oriented from the northern Plains to southern Rockies will develop eastward to the Great Lakes and Lower MS Valley on Monday. Strengthening midlevel southwesterly flow ahead of this feature will overspread the Southeast. A prior cold frontal passage into the Gulf on Day 2/Sunday and surface high pressure persisting across the Midwest and eastern states will limit northward transport of richer Gulf moisture, keeping any quality moisture very near the coast. Nevertheless, increasing midlevel moisture and steepening lapse rates aloft, and another approaching cold front could support isolated thunderstorms across the Gulf Coast/Southeast vicinity once again on Monday. Severe storms are not expected as destabilization will remain meager.
..Leitman.. 11/29/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Tuesday, December 2
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, December 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, December 3 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, December 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, December 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, December 6 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290930 SPC AC 290930
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
A broad mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic while another mid-level trough gradually progresses across the CONUS this upcoming week into next weekend. A surface low will rapidly track from the southeast Gulf Coast, northeastward along the Eastern Seaboard Day 4/Tuesday, supporting thunderstorm development along the Southeast Coast and the FL Peninsula. Thereafter, surface high pressure and associated static stability should limit thunderstorm development over most locales until late in the week into the weekend. By this point, moisture return across the western Gulf Coast region may foster enough buoyancy to support thunderstorm potential. It is plausible that strong to perhaps isolated severe thunderstorms may develop over the TX Coastal Plain in the Days 6-7 (Thursday-Friday) time frame if the moisture can become rich/deep enough to support greater buoyancy. However, the lack in medium-range guidance agreement lends too little confidence in this scenario for the introduction of severe probabilities this far in advance.
..Squitieri.. 11/29/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, December 3
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, December 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, December 3 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, December 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, December 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, December 6 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290930 SPC AC 290930
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
A broad mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic while another mid-level trough gradually progresses across the CONUS this upcoming week into next weekend. A surface low will rapidly track from the southeast Gulf Coast, northeastward along the Eastern Seaboard Day 4/Tuesday, supporting thunderstorm development along the Southeast Coast and the FL Peninsula. Thereafter, surface high pressure and associated static stability should limit thunderstorm development over most locales until late in the week into the weekend. By this point, moisture return across the western Gulf Coast region may foster enough buoyancy to support thunderstorm potential. It is plausible that strong to perhaps isolated severe thunderstorms may develop over the TX Coastal Plain in the Days 6-7 (Thursday-Friday) time frame if the moisture can become rich/deep enough to support greater buoyancy. However, the lack in medium-range guidance agreement lends too little confidence in this scenario for the introduction of severe probabilities this far in advance.
..Squitieri.. 11/29/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, December 4
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, December 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, December 3 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, December 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, December 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, December 6 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290930 SPC AC 290930
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
A broad mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic while another mid-level trough gradually progresses across the CONUS this upcoming week into next weekend. A surface low will rapidly track from the southeast Gulf Coast, northeastward along the Eastern Seaboard Day 4/Tuesday, supporting thunderstorm development along the Southeast Coast and the FL Peninsula. Thereafter, surface high pressure and associated static stability should limit thunderstorm development over most locales until late in the week into the weekend. By this point, moisture return across the western Gulf Coast region may foster enough buoyancy to support thunderstorm potential. It is plausible that strong to perhaps isolated severe thunderstorms may develop over the TX Coastal Plain in the Days 6-7 (Thursday-Friday) time frame if the moisture can become rich/deep enough to support greater buoyancy. However, the lack in medium-range guidance agreement lends too little confidence in this scenario for the introduction of severe probabilities this far in advance.
..Squitieri.. 11/29/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, December 5
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, December 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, December 3 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, December 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, December 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, December 6 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290930 SPC AC 290930
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
A broad mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic while another mid-level trough gradually progresses across the CONUS this upcoming week into next weekend. A surface low will rapidly track from the southeast Gulf Coast, northeastward along the Eastern Seaboard Day 4/Tuesday, supporting thunderstorm development along the Southeast Coast and the FL Peninsula. Thereafter, surface high pressure and associated static stability should limit thunderstorm development over most locales until late in the week into the weekend. By this point, moisture return across the western Gulf Coast region may foster enough buoyancy to support thunderstorm potential. It is plausible that strong to perhaps isolated severe thunderstorms may develop over the TX Coastal Plain in the Days 6-7 (Thursday-Friday) time frame if the moisture can become rich/deep enough to support greater buoyancy. However, the lack in medium-range guidance agreement lends too little confidence in this scenario for the introduction of severe probabilities this far in advance.
..Squitieri.. 11/29/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, December 6
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, December 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, December 3 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, December 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, December 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, December 6 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290930 SPC AC 290930
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
A broad mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic while another mid-level trough gradually progresses across the CONUS this upcoming week into next weekend. A surface low will rapidly track from the southeast Gulf Coast, northeastward along the Eastern Seaboard Day 4/Tuesday, supporting thunderstorm development along the Southeast Coast and the FL Peninsula. Thereafter, surface high pressure and associated static stability should limit thunderstorm development over most locales until late in the week into the weekend. By this point, moisture return across the western Gulf Coast region may foster enough buoyancy to support thunderstorm potential. It is plausible that strong to perhaps isolated severe thunderstorms may develop over the TX Coastal Plain in the Days 6-7 (Thursday-Friday) time frame if the moisture can become rich/deep enough to support greater buoyancy. However, the lack in medium-range guidance agreement lends too little confidence in this scenario for the introduction of severe probabilities this far in advance.
..Squitieri.. 11/29/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, November 29
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Sunday, November 30
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Monday, December 1
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Tuesday, December 2
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, December 3
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, December 4
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, December 5
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, December 6
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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