Severe Weather Outlook
Hayley here - Do you want to see severe weather in your calendar?
* it's like an add-on for your digital calendar NOT a paper calendar
National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, November 6
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the central/eastern Carolinas and coastal southern Mid-Atlantic.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 061258
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2026
Valid 061300Z - 071200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CAROLINAS AND COASTAL SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the central/eastern Carolinas and coastal southern Mid-Atlantic.
Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England
An upper trough/low centered over the Great Lakes this morning will advance eastward over the Atlantic Coast states through the period. An associated 50-70 kt southwesterly mid-level jet will likewise translate eastward today across the Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic, and New England. A weak surface low analyzed over the southern Mid-Atlantic will develop northeastward towards southern New England along a front through the afternoon. A rather moist low-level airmass will remain in place ahead of the front, with surface dewpoints generally ranging in the mid to upper 60s.
12Z observed soundings from OKX/GSO show a nearly saturated boundary layer and rather poor low/mid level lapse rates (around 5.5-6.5 C/km in the 700-500 mb layer). Combined with widespread cloudiness evident on recent visible satellite imagery, these modest lapse rates will likely hinder the development of any more than weak instability and limit overall convective intensity. Still, ongoing convection this morning along/ahead of the front may pose some risk for isolated damaging winds given 30-40 kt of southwesterly deep-layer shear aiding updraft organization and potential for clustering. The threat for strong/gusty winds may extend into parts of southern New England, but latest RAP/HRRR forecast soundings suggest little potential for surface-based instability to develop across this region.
Somewhat better diurnal heating should occur with southward extent, and greater instability (MLCAPE up to 1000-1250 J/kg) is forecast to develop this afternoon across the central/eastern Carolinas and southeast VA. A lobe of mid-level vorticity and associated forcing for ascent embedded within the large-scale upper trough/low should overspread this region and support additional thunderstorm development by 16-18Z along/ahead of the eastward-moving cold front. A mix of loosely organized clusters and marginal supercell structures should pose a risk for occasional damaging winds, especially if low-level lapse rates can become steepened through filtered daytime heating. While low-level flow and related shear are not forecast to be overly strong, a brief tornado or two also appears possible. This activity should weaken and/or move offshore by early evening.
Southeast Arizona
Cold mid-level temperatures will accompany an upper trough progressing southeastward across the Southwest today, and weak instability should develop this afternoon over parts of southeast AZ. Deep-layer shear appears marginal for organized updrafts, but occasional small hail could occur with the strongest cores that develop.
..Gleason/Marsh.. 11/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Saturday, November 7
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. Saturday and Saturday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 060654
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. Saturday and Saturday night.
DISCUSSION
An upper-level low and an associated trough will move eastward across the Northeast on Saturday, reaching the western Atlantic Saturday night. Another upper-level low will move slowly across northern Mexico. In response to this second system, low-level moisture will return northward into southern and central Texas Saturday and Saturday night. As lift gradually increases due to the approach of the system, scattered thunderstorms will be possible from parts of south and central Texas westward into the Trans-Pecos from Saturday afternoon into the overnight period. Instability is expected to be too weak for a severe threat. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., thunderstorms are not forecast Saturday or Saturday night.
..Broyles.. 11/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Sunday, November 8
Outlook Summary
No severe threat is forecast across the continental U.S. Sunday and Sunday night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 060724
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
No severe threat is forecast across the continental U.S. Sunday and Sunday night.
DISCUSSION
Northwest flow at mid-levels is expected on Sunday from the north-central states to the Eastern Seaboard. Further southwest, an upper-level low is forecast to move toward the Rio Grande Valley of southwest Texas. A moist airmass will likely be located over south and central Texas, where scattered to numerous thunderstorms will be possible during the day. Thunderstorms may continue across parts of south Texas in the overnight period. Instability is forecast to be weak across south and central Texas, making severe thunderstorm development unlikely. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., thunderstorms are not expected Sunday and Sunday night.
..Broyles.. 11/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Monday, November 9
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, November 9 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, November 10 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, November 11 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, November 13 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060747 SPC AC 060747
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
Early next week, west-northwesterly flow is forecast over much of the northern U.S., while an upper-level trough is forecast to move across the south-central states. Thunderstorms will be possible ahead of this weakening trough along the western Gulf Coast on Monday and Tuesday. By Wednesday, thunderstorms will be possible along the coast of Louisiana. From Wednesday into Thursday, a large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to dig southeastward into the east-central U.S. This will help usher cool and dry air southward across the U.S, limiting moisture return from the Gulf. As a result, thunderstorm potential appears to be low late in the Day 4 to 8 period.
..Broyles.. 11/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, November 10
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, November 9 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, November 10 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, November 11 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, November 13 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060747 SPC AC 060747
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
Early next week, west-northwesterly flow is forecast over much of the northern U.S., while an upper-level trough is forecast to move across the south-central states. Thunderstorms will be possible ahead of this weakening trough along the western Gulf Coast on Monday and Tuesday. By Wednesday, thunderstorms will be possible along the coast of Louisiana. From Wednesday into Thursday, a large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to dig southeastward into the east-central U.S. This will help usher cool and dry air southward across the U.S, limiting moisture return from the Gulf. As a result, thunderstorm potential appears to be low late in the Day 4 to 8 period.
..Broyles.. 11/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, November 11
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, November 9 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, November 10 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, November 11 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, November 13 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060747 SPC AC 060747
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
Early next week, west-northwesterly flow is forecast over much of the northern U.S., while an upper-level trough is forecast to move across the south-central states. Thunderstorms will be possible ahead of this weakening trough along the western Gulf Coast on Monday and Tuesday. By Wednesday, thunderstorms will be possible along the coast of Louisiana. From Wednesday into Thursday, a large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to dig southeastward into the east-central U.S. This will help usher cool and dry air southward across the U.S, limiting moisture return from the Gulf. As a result, thunderstorm potential appears to be low late in the Day 4 to 8 period.
..Broyles.. 11/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, November 12
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, November 9 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, November 10 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, November 11 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, November 13 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060747 SPC AC 060747
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
Early next week, west-northwesterly flow is forecast over much of the northern U.S., while an upper-level trough is forecast to move across the south-central states. Thunderstorms will be possible ahead of this weakening trough along the western Gulf Coast on Monday and Tuesday. By Wednesday, thunderstorms will be possible along the coast of Louisiana. From Wednesday into Thursday, a large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to dig southeastward into the east-central U.S. This will help usher cool and dry air southward across the U.S, limiting moisture return from the Gulf. As a result, thunderstorm potential appears to be low late in the Day 4 to 8 period.
..Broyles.. 11/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, November 13
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, November 9 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, November 10 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, November 11 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, November 13 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060747 SPC AC 060747
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
Early next week, west-northwesterly flow is forecast over much of the northern U.S., while an upper-level trough is forecast to move across the south-central states. Thunderstorms will be possible ahead of this weakening trough along the western Gulf Coast on Monday and Tuesday. By Wednesday, thunderstorms will be possible along the coast of Louisiana. From Wednesday into Thursday, a large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to dig southeastward into the east-central U.S. This will help usher cool and dry air southward across the U.S, limiting moisture return from the Gulf. As a result, thunderstorm potential appears to be low late in the Day 4 to 8 period.
..Broyles.. 11/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, November 6
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Saturday, November 7
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Sunday, November 8
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Monday, November 9
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, November 10
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, November 11
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, November 12
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, November 13
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Your Severe Outlook
Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.
Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.
Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.
About Severe Weather Outlook . com
SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.
- tornado hq - live severe weather warnings
- cyclocane - hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones
- tornado solitaire - play cards while you monitor the US severe weather threat
- tertremo - live view of earthquakes around the world
- earthquake solitaire - get live earthquake updates as you play your favorite card game