Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Monday, July 27

Outlook Summary

Severe storms capable of strong to severe wind gusts and large hail are possible across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley Monday into Monday night. More sporadic occurrences of damaging wind appear possible in the Mid-Atlantic, Tennessee Valley, central High Plains, and southeast Arizona.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 270552

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY

### THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA…WESTERN NEBRASKA…NORTHEAST COLORADO…AND FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS

### SUMMARY

Severe storms capable of strong to severe wind gusts and large hail are possible across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley Monday into Monday night. More sporadic occurrences of damaging wind appear possible in the Mid-Atlantic, Tennessee Valley, central High Plains, and southeast Arizona.

Upper Midwest/Great Lakes into the OH/TN Valleys

A very moist airmass is in place from the Upper Midwest into the OH and TN Valley. This airmass is exists south of a diffuse cold front that extends from a surface low over far southeast Manitoba southeastward to far eastern Upper MI. One thunderstorm is currently ongoing near this boundary over eastern Upper MI. Most of the thunderstorms are ongoing just northeast another surface boundary demarcating the very moist (i.e. 70+ dewpoints) to it southwest. How this warm-air advection activity evolves early this morning will have a large impact on the severe potential farther downstream from the Mid MS Valley into the OH and TN Valleys through the late morning into the afternoon and evening.

Much of the guidance is beginning to suggest the warm-air advection activity clusters early this morning over the MN Arrowhead vicinity before then tracking southeastward within the moisture/buoyancy gradient and organizing/intensifying significantly. Synoptically, the overall setup matches many characteristics of scenarios with strong, forward-propagating MCSs, including a surface boundary parallel to the deep-layer shear, at least modest mid-level warm advection, and very strong to extreme buoyancy. Given the trend within the guidance and favorable synoptics, confidence in the development of a strong forward-propagating MCS is high enough to adjust the 30% wind probabilities westward while also introducing a CIG1 area. There is a chance that both higher wind probabilities and a CIG2 may be needed, but predictability regarding convective evolution is too low at this time.

Central High Plains into western/central NE and SD

Moist, post-frontal surface flow is expected across much of NE and SD, shifting from northerly early in the day to more easterly by the afternoon. Dewpoints will initially be in the mid to upper 70s, although strong boundary-layer mixing will likely result in dewpoints ranging from the upper 50s/low 60s across the NE Panhandle to the low 70s across eastern NE. This reservoir of low-level moisture coupled with strong heating and steep mid-level lapse rates will result in a corridor of moderate to extreme buoyancy from eastern WY/northeast CO/southwest SD eastward across south-central SD and much of NE.

Most of the guidance indicates a subtle, convectively augmented vorticity maximum will progress eastward through the northern periphery of the Four Corner upper ridge. This should contribute to thunderstorm development across the high terrain, which would then progress downstream into a more moist and unstable airmass. One or more clusters could evolve, but the overall predictability of the convective evolution is low. That being said, environmental conditions support the potential for strong to severe gusts, including the potential for some over 75 mph. Eastern extent of the wind threat will likely be limited by building convective inhibition associated with nocturnal cool, unless a more coherent and organized MCS were to evolve. If that occurs, the wind threat could extend farther east into more of eastern NE and north-central KS, and 5% wind probabilities were expanded eastward/southeastward to account for this potential.

Depending on the strength of the MCS, the wind threat could extend eastward into more of OH and PA, and also farther southward into more of TN, during the late afternoon/evening.

Mid-Atlantic States

Some wind threat could exist during the afternoon/evening across the Mid-Atlantic, where marginal buoyancy and deep-layer shear could support a few stronger updrafts.

Southeast Arizona

Isolated severe gusts are possible over southeast AZ as mid-level moisture and daytime heating leads to scattered storms over the higher terrain, particularly far southeast AZ. Cells are expected to move westward into warmer temperatures and deeper boundary-layer mixing, with PWAT over 1.25" and steep low-level lapse rates supporting strong outflows.

..Mosier/Squitieri.. 07/27/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, July 28

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and isolated hail are possible from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas and central and southern Appalachians Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Isolated severe wind gusts and large hail may occur in the central High Plains.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 270520

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and isolated hail are possible from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas and central and southern Appalachians Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Isolated severe wind gusts and large hail may occur in the central High Plains.

Synopsis

Considerable trough amplification is forecast over the eastern CONUS this period, aided by the propagation of the mid/upper-level jet streaks from the Great Lakes and OH Valley through VA and NC. A series of vorticity maxima is forecast on the cyclonic side of the jet streaks, which will enhance forcing for ascent over the central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, the primary low pressure is expected to deepen over the Delmarva with a secondary cyclone over western NY. A lee trough will extend from the Delmarva low south-southwest along the Piedmont, ahead of a cold front moving through the TN Valley and central and southern Appalachians.

### Mid-Atlantic into the Southern Appalachians

Showers and thunderstorms (some potentially severe with damaging winds) are expected to be ongoing Tuesday morning from the lower Great Lakes into the central Appalachians. The longevity and areal extent of the early-day storms will be a determinant in where more robust air mass destabilization will take place during the afternoon. The 00Z HREF calibrated thunder probabilities suggest the most likely areas for persistent morning storms will be from NY and PA into the Delmarva and WV. To the south of those locations, stronger daytime heating appears more probable, which, combined with boundary-layer dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s, will yield moderate to potentially strong afternoon instability with MLCAPE of 1500-2500+ J/kg.

Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity during the afternoon along and ahead of the cold front and lee trough as background forcing for ascent strengthens in the left exit region of the approaching upper-level jet streak. The presence of the mid/upper-level wind maxima will yield long hodographs with sufficient vertical shear for supercells and bowing structures. The strengthening shear combined with cooling mid-level temperatures will be supportive of large-hail production with any supercells that form. Otherwise, damaging winds will be the primary hazard, especially with any storm clusters or bowing line segments. Some tornado threat could also materialize Tuesday afternoon into evening near and south of the Delmarva surface low where slightly stronger low-level shear is forecast.

### Central High Plains

Strong heating of a moist, upslope-flow air mass is expected to yield a moderately unstable environment by afternoon with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development appears possible by mid- to late afternoon along the high terrain within a kinematic environment featuring 30-35 kt westerly deep-layer shear. Transient supercell structures appear possible, which suggest some marginally severe hail potential, despite the warm mid-level temperatures. There is some model signal for storm clustering over the adjacent High Plains by evening, at which point the threat for isolated severe wind gusts would increase.

..Mead.. 07/27/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, July 29

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260832 SPC AC 260832

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Wednesday

The large-scale pattern will feature an upper high over the southern High Plains with ridging extending into the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. Meanwhile, broader-scale troughing will persist across the eastern CONUS, anchored by an upper low over the Mid-Atlantic.

A very moist air mass is expected to contribute to moderate to strong instability by afternoon along a cold front over the Southeast. While vertical shear will remain rather weak, the strong buoyancy will be supportive of locally intense downdrafts capable of damaging winds. Elsewhere, a few strong to severe storms appear possible within a moist upslope regime over the central High Plains, as well as along a cold front moving into the northern High Plains.

### Days 5 and 6/Thursday and Friday

The southwestern U.S. ridge/eastern U.S. trough configuration will be maintained this period. Between those features, a notable short-wave trough is forecast to track from the northern Plains into the mid MS Valley along with a surface frontal system. Persistent low-level ridging from the Great Lakes into the Gulf Coast states will limit the breadth of an unstable warm sector to the northern and central Plains on Thursday, where thunderstorms are expected. Vertical shear is not forecast to be particularly strong; however, some potential exists for an organized severe weather episode. Additional strong to severe storms appear possible along the front in the Ozarks on Friday. Both days will continue to be monitored for the possible inclusion of severe weather probabilities in subsequent forecasts.

### Days 7 and 8/Saturday and Sunday

There is good agreement across the ensemble means in the progression of a more significant short-wave trough from western into central Canada with the southern fringe of more substantial height falls overspreading the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains on Sunday. That upper-air system will be attended by a cold front that could be the source of severe storm development in those areas Sunday afternoon into night.

..Mead.. 07/26/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Thursday, July 30

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260832 SPC AC 260832

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Wednesday

The large-scale pattern will feature an upper high over the southern High Plains with ridging extending into the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. Meanwhile, broader-scale troughing will persist across the eastern CONUS, anchored by an upper low over the Mid-Atlantic.

A very moist air mass is expected to contribute to moderate to strong instability by afternoon along a cold front over the Southeast. While vertical shear will remain rather weak, the strong buoyancy will be supportive of locally intense downdrafts capable of damaging winds. Elsewhere, a few strong to severe storms appear possible within a moist upslope regime over the central High Plains, as well as along a cold front moving into the northern High Plains.

### Days 5 and 6/Thursday and Friday

The southwestern U.S. ridge/eastern U.S. trough configuration will be maintained this period. Between those features, a notable short-wave trough is forecast to track from the northern Plains into the mid MS Valley along with a surface frontal system. Persistent low-level ridging from the Great Lakes into the Gulf Coast states will limit the breadth of an unstable warm sector to the northern and central Plains on Thursday, where thunderstorms are expected. Vertical shear is not forecast to be particularly strong; however, some potential exists for an organized severe weather episode. Additional strong to severe storms appear possible along the front in the Ozarks on Friday. Both days will continue to be monitored for the possible inclusion of severe weather probabilities in subsequent forecasts.

### Days 7 and 8/Saturday and Sunday

There is good agreement across the ensemble means in the progression of a more significant short-wave trough from western into central Canada with the southern fringe of more substantial height falls overspreading the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains on Sunday. That upper-air system will be attended by a cold front that could be the source of severe storm development in those areas Sunday afternoon into night.

..Mead.. 07/26/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Friday, July 31

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260832 SPC AC 260832

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Wednesday

The large-scale pattern will feature an upper high over the southern High Plains with ridging extending into the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. Meanwhile, broader-scale troughing will persist across the eastern CONUS, anchored by an upper low over the Mid-Atlantic.

A very moist air mass is expected to contribute to moderate to strong instability by afternoon along a cold front over the Southeast. While vertical shear will remain rather weak, the strong buoyancy will be supportive of locally intense downdrafts capable of damaging winds. Elsewhere, a few strong to severe storms appear possible within a moist upslope regime over the central High Plains, as well as along a cold front moving into the northern High Plains.

### Days 5 and 6/Thursday and Friday

The southwestern U.S. ridge/eastern U.S. trough configuration will be maintained this period. Between those features, a notable short-wave trough is forecast to track from the northern Plains into the mid MS Valley along with a surface frontal system. Persistent low-level ridging from the Great Lakes into the Gulf Coast states will limit the breadth of an unstable warm sector to the northern and central Plains on Thursday, where thunderstorms are expected. Vertical shear is not forecast to be particularly strong; however, some potential exists for an organized severe weather episode. Additional strong to severe storms appear possible along the front in the Ozarks on Friday. Both days will continue to be monitored for the possible inclusion of severe weather probabilities in subsequent forecasts.

### Days 7 and 8/Saturday and Sunday

There is good agreement across the ensemble means in the progression of a more significant short-wave trough from western into central Canada with the southern fringe of more substantial height falls overspreading the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains on Sunday. That upper-air system will be attended by a cold front that could be the source of severe storm development in those areas Sunday afternoon into night.

..Mead.. 07/26/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, August 1

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260832 SPC AC 260832

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Wednesday

The large-scale pattern will feature an upper high over the southern High Plains with ridging extending into the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. Meanwhile, broader-scale troughing will persist across the eastern CONUS, anchored by an upper low over the Mid-Atlantic.

A very moist air mass is expected to contribute to moderate to strong instability by afternoon along a cold front over the Southeast. While vertical shear will remain rather weak, the strong buoyancy will be supportive of locally intense downdrafts capable of damaging winds. Elsewhere, a few strong to severe storms appear possible within a moist upslope regime over the central High Plains, as well as along a cold front moving into the northern High Plains.

### Days 5 and 6/Thursday and Friday

The southwestern U.S. ridge/eastern U.S. trough configuration will be maintained this period. Between those features, a notable short-wave trough is forecast to track from the northern Plains into the mid MS Valley along with a surface frontal system. Persistent low-level ridging from the Great Lakes into the Gulf Coast states will limit the breadth of an unstable warm sector to the northern and central Plains on Thursday, where thunderstorms are expected. Vertical shear is not forecast to be particularly strong; however, some potential exists for an organized severe weather episode. Additional strong to severe storms appear possible along the front in the Ozarks on Friday. Both days will continue to be monitored for the possible inclusion of severe weather probabilities in subsequent forecasts.

### Days 7 and 8/Saturday and Sunday

There is good agreement across the ensemble means in the progression of a more significant short-wave trough from western into central Canada with the southern fringe of more substantial height falls overspreading the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains on Sunday. That upper-air system will be attended by a cold front that could be the source of severe storm development in those areas Sunday afternoon into night.

..Mead.. 07/26/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, August 2

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260832 SPC AC 260832

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Wednesday

The large-scale pattern will feature an upper high over the southern High Plains with ridging extending into the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. Meanwhile, broader-scale troughing will persist across the eastern CONUS, anchored by an upper low over the Mid-Atlantic.

A very moist air mass is expected to contribute to moderate to strong instability by afternoon along a cold front over the Southeast. While vertical shear will remain rather weak, the strong buoyancy will be supportive of locally intense downdrafts capable of damaging winds. Elsewhere, a few strong to severe storms appear possible within a moist upslope regime over the central High Plains, as well as along a cold front moving into the northern High Plains.

### Days 5 and 6/Thursday and Friday

The southwestern U.S. ridge/eastern U.S. trough configuration will be maintained this period. Between those features, a notable short-wave trough is forecast to track from the northern Plains into the mid MS Valley along with a surface frontal system. Persistent low-level ridging from the Great Lakes into the Gulf Coast states will limit the breadth of an unstable warm sector to the northern and central Plains on Thursday, where thunderstorms are expected. Vertical shear is not forecast to be particularly strong; however, some potential exists for an organized severe weather episode. Additional strong to severe storms appear possible along the front in the Ozarks on Friday. Both days will continue to be monitored for the possible inclusion of severe weather probabilities in subsequent forecasts.

### Days 7 and 8/Saturday and Sunday

There is good agreement across the ensemble means in the progression of a more significant short-wave trough from western into central Canada with the southern fringe of more substantial height falls overspreading the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains on Sunday. That upper-air system will be attended by a cold front that could be the source of severe storm development in those areas Sunday afternoon into night.

..Mead.. 07/26/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

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National Risk Overview

Monday, July 27

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 30%

Tuesday, July 28

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 30%

Wednesday, July 29

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Thursday, July 30

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, July 31

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Saturday, August 1

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Sunday, August 2

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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