Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, October 13
Outlook Summary
Widely scattered severe storms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and possibly a tornado are expected over portions of the central and southern Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley this afternoon into tonight. More isolated severe weather may occur from southwest Texas into the mid Mississippi Valley, and in parts of New York.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 130522
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF KS/NORTHWEST MO INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Widely scattered severe storms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and possibly a tornado are expected over portions of the central and southern Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley this afternoon into tonight. More isolated severe weather may occur from southwest Texas into the mid Mississippi Valley, and in parts of New York.
Central/southern Plains into the Midwest
A deep mid/upper-level low is forecast to move slowly east-southeastward across the Great Basin and Desert Southwest through the period. Downstream of this low and attendant trough, a lee surface cyclone is forecast to meander across the south-central High Plains. A weak surface trough will extend southwest of the lee cyclone across the southern High Plains, while a nearly stationary front extends east-northeast across KS into northern MO through late afternoon.
Despite generally modest midlevel lapse rates, seasonably strong heating and rich low-level moisture will support moderate to locally strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg) this afternoon, along/east of the surface trough across the southern Plains and along/south of the front across KS/MO. Scattered storm development is expected near KS/MO front by late afternoon, with at least isolated storms possible farther south into the southern High Plains.
Moderate deep-layer shear downstream of the deep mid/upper-level low/trough will support organized storms, with initial supercell development possible. Strong to severe gusts and large hail are expected to be the primary hazards, though some increase in low-level shear/SRH by early evening could result in a tornado or two near the front and surface trough. Modest upscale growth will be possible later tonight across parts of KS/MO and western/southern IL, though longevity of the severe threat is uncertain due to increasing nocturnal stabilization with time.
Parts of western/central NY
A low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough will move quickly from the Great Lakes towards the Northeast later today. A surface low will move from northern MI into Ontario. Early-day clouds/precipitation will help to reinforce a nearly stationary front extending southeast of the low into parts of western/central NY. Relatively rich low-level moisture (with 60s F dewpoints) will be in place along and southwest of this front by afternoon, though modest heating and lapse rates will tend to limit destabilization.
Increasing deep-layer flow and some low-level hodograph curvature will provide a favorable wind profile for organized convection, though potential for warm-sector development remains uncertain, due to the modest instability. Some threat for localized wind damage and possibly a brief tornado could accompany any sustained surface-based storms, though confidence in the magnitude and coverage of the threat remains low at this time.
..Dean/Chalmers.. 10/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Wednesday, October 14
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of mainly damaging wind gusts are possible across portions of the southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau, and in the parts of the upper Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 130515
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU…AND IN PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of mainly damaging wind gusts are possible across portions of the southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau, and in the parts of the upper Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Synopsis
An upper low centered near the Four Corners Wednesday morning is forecast to gradually weaken while progressing into the central High Plains by early Thursday. Within the southeast periphery of the low, a vorticity maximum is expected to advance from the southern Rockies into the central High Plains in tandem with a 50-60 kt jet streak in the mid levels. Elsewhere, a series of vorticity maxima (some of convective origin) are forecast to translate from the mid-MS Valley to the southern Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front will move south through the Mid-Atlantic, OH and mid-MS Valleys, and into portions of the southern Plains. The western segment of the front over the southern Plains may eventually stall and perhaps retreat north Wednesday night in response to falling pressures over the central Plains.
### Southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at 12Z Wednesday, along and ahead of the cold front, aided by modest warm advection and moisture transport along a weakening nocturnal low-level jet. The presence of a seasonably moist (e.g., dewpoints in the mid 60s to mid 70s F) and at least marginally unstable air mass will likely support the continuation of showers and thunderstorms through the day in some areas. On the southern fringe of any more persistent clouds and precipitation, stronger heating may contribute to corridors of moderate instability by afternoon where MLCAPE may approach 1500-2000 J/kg. That destabilization process will coincide with strengthening vertical shear and forcing for ascent preceding the southern Rockies disturbance, yielding an environment supportive of isolated strong to severe storms during the afternoon and evening. Damaging wind gusts appear to be the primary hazard with the best potential for a few occurrences of severe hail being in southwest TX.
### Upper Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic
Daytime heating combined with boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s F is expected to contribute to pockets of moderate instability with MLCAPE approaching 1000-1250 J/kg by mid-late afternoon ahead of the cold front. Aided by forcing for ascent preceding the series of vorticity maxima approaching from the west, thunderstorms are expected to develop and subsequently increase in areal coverage along the front at that time. Steepening low-level lapse rates coupled with strengthening west-southwesterly winds with height (yielding up to 35-40 kt of deep-layer shear) appear supportive of isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts into evening.
..Mead.. 10/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Thursday, October 15
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe storms appear possible over portions of the mid- Mississippi and Ohio Valleys Thursday afternoon through night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 130708
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe storms appear possible over portions of the mid- Mississippi and Ohio Valleys Thursday afternoon through night.
Synopsis
A short-wave trough over SK/MB Thursday morning is forecast to undergo considerable amplification while translating into the Great Lakes late Thursday night/early Friday. Ahead of that feature, an upper low will weaken into an increasingly sheared open wave while accelerating from the central High Plains into the Midwest. At the surface, an area of low pressure is expected to develop along a poleward-advancing warm front from central or eastern KS through the mid-MS and OH Valleys to the lower Great Lakes. Meanwhile a trailing cold front will surge south through much of the southern Plains and into the lower-MS Valley.
### Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys
Showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing at 12Z Thursday from portions of the central Plains into the mid-MS Valley within a zone of warm-air and moisture advection preceding the surface low. A subset of the early-day storms may persist through the day with associated cloud cover limiting daytime heating and resultant air mass destabilization in those areas. Where cloud breaks can occur, stronger diabatic heating coupled with boundary-layer dewpoints in the low to mid 70s may contribute to a corridor of moderate instability by afternoon, which would become a preferred zone of diurnally enhanced thunderstorm development.
Both vertical shear and forcing for ascent are forecast to steadily strengthen from Thursday afternoon through night, leading to the potential for a fast-moving complex of storms to traverse the region with an associated risk for locally damaging wind gusts.
..Mead.. 10/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Friday, October 16
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, October 15 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Friday, October 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, October 17 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, October 18 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, October 19 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120825 SPC AC 120825
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
A short-wave trough over central Canada on Day 4/Thursday morning is forecast to undergo considerable amplification while progressing southeast through the Great Lakes to the Atlantic Coast by Day 5/Friday. That upper-air system will be attended by a surface low, which is expected to develop along a front from the mid-MS Valley through the OH Valley to off the New England coast. Meanwhile, a strong cold front will surge south, reaching the Gulf Coast by Friday night or early Saturday. In its wake, a drier, continental- polar airmass will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Rockies, limiting the threat for severe thunderstorms this weekend into early next week.
Day 4/Thursday and Thursday night
Despite the potential for early-day showers and thunderstorms, a seasonably moist boundary layer is forecast along and to the south of the front and surface low in the mid-MS and OH Valleys. The moisture combined with daytime heating will contribute to at least modest air mass destabilization by afternoon. Both vertical shear and forcing for ascent will strengthen through the period with the approach of the midlevel trough. As such, some severe weather appears possible on Thursday with the threat possibly continuing through Thursday night from the OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. At least level-1/Marginal Risk probabilities may be required in the subsequent Day 3 Outlook for this time period.
### Day 5/Friday
As mentioned above, some severe weather threat could develop over the Mid-Atlantic late Thursday night or Friday morning with additional strong to severe storms possible by afternoon along the front in the southern Mid-Atlantic or Carolinas.
### Days 6 to 8/Saturday to Monday
No severe weather is currently expected.
..Mead.. 10/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, October 17
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, October 15 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Friday, October 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, October 17 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, October 18 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, October 19 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120825 SPC AC 120825
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
A short-wave trough over central Canada on Day 4/Thursday morning is forecast to undergo considerable amplification while progressing southeast through the Great Lakes to the Atlantic Coast by Day 5/Friday. That upper-air system will be attended by a surface low, which is expected to develop along a front from the mid-MS Valley through the OH Valley to off the New England coast. Meanwhile, a strong cold front will surge south, reaching the Gulf Coast by Friday night or early Saturday. In its wake, a drier, continental- polar airmass will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Rockies, limiting the threat for severe thunderstorms this weekend into early next week.
Day 4/Thursday and Thursday night
Despite the potential for early-day showers and thunderstorms, a seasonably moist boundary layer is forecast along and to the south of the front and surface low in the mid-MS and OH Valleys. The moisture combined with daytime heating will contribute to at least modest air mass destabilization by afternoon. Both vertical shear and forcing for ascent will strengthen through the period with the approach of the midlevel trough. As such, some severe weather appears possible on Thursday with the threat possibly continuing through Thursday night from the OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. At least level-1/Marginal Risk probabilities may be required in the subsequent Day 3 Outlook for this time period.
### Day 5/Friday
As mentioned above, some severe weather threat could develop over the Mid-Atlantic late Thursday night or Friday morning with additional strong to severe storms possible by afternoon along the front in the southern Mid-Atlantic or Carolinas.
### Days 6 to 8/Saturday to Monday
No severe weather is currently expected.
..Mead.. 10/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, October 18
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, October 15 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Friday, October 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, October 17 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, October 18 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, October 19 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120825 SPC AC 120825
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
A short-wave trough over central Canada on Day 4/Thursday morning is forecast to undergo considerable amplification while progressing southeast through the Great Lakes to the Atlantic Coast by Day 5/Friday. That upper-air system will be attended by a surface low, which is expected to develop along a front from the mid-MS Valley through the OH Valley to off the New England coast. Meanwhile, a strong cold front will surge south, reaching the Gulf Coast by Friday night or early Saturday. In its wake, a drier, continental- polar airmass will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Rockies, limiting the threat for severe thunderstorms this weekend into early next week.
Day 4/Thursday and Thursday night
Despite the potential for early-day showers and thunderstorms, a seasonably moist boundary layer is forecast along and to the south of the front and surface low in the mid-MS and OH Valleys. The moisture combined with daytime heating will contribute to at least modest air mass destabilization by afternoon. Both vertical shear and forcing for ascent will strengthen through the period with the approach of the midlevel trough. As such, some severe weather appears possible on Thursday with the threat possibly continuing through Thursday night from the OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. At least level-1/Marginal Risk probabilities may be required in the subsequent Day 3 Outlook for this time period.
### Day 5/Friday
As mentioned above, some severe weather threat could develop over the Mid-Atlantic late Thursday night or Friday morning with additional strong to severe storms possible by afternoon along the front in the southern Mid-Atlantic or Carolinas.
### Days 6 to 8/Saturday to Monday
No severe weather is currently expected.
..Mead.. 10/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, October 19
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, October 15 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Friday, October 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, October 17 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, October 18 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, October 19 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120825 SPC AC 120825
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
A short-wave trough over central Canada on Day 4/Thursday morning is forecast to undergo considerable amplification while progressing southeast through the Great Lakes to the Atlantic Coast by Day 5/Friday. That upper-air system will be attended by a surface low, which is expected to develop along a front from the mid-MS Valley through the OH Valley to off the New England coast. Meanwhile, a strong cold front will surge south, reaching the Gulf Coast by Friday night or early Saturday. In its wake, a drier, continental- polar airmass will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Rockies, limiting the threat for severe thunderstorms this weekend into early next week.
Day 4/Thursday and Thursday night
Despite the potential for early-day showers and thunderstorms, a seasonably moist boundary layer is forecast along and to the south of the front and surface low in the mid-MS and OH Valleys. The moisture combined with daytime heating will contribute to at least modest air mass destabilization by afternoon. Both vertical shear and forcing for ascent will strengthen through the period with the approach of the midlevel trough. As such, some severe weather appears possible on Thursday with the threat possibly continuing through Thursday night from the OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. At least level-1/Marginal Risk probabilities may be required in the subsequent Day 3 Outlook for this time period.
### Day 5/Friday
As mentioned above, some severe weather threat could develop over the Mid-Atlantic late Thursday night or Friday morning with additional strong to severe storms possible by afternoon along the front in the southern Mid-Atlantic or Carolinas.
### Days 6 to 8/Saturday to Monday
No severe weather is currently expected.
..Mead.. 10/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, October 13
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Wednesday, October 14
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Thursday, October 15
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Friday, October 16
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, October 17
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, October 18
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, October 19
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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