Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, March 15
Outlook Summary
A squall line may continue to pose a risk for widespread strong to severe wind gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes through late evening as it progresses east of the middle Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley. The severe threat may continue into and through the overnight hours as it advances east of the lower Mississippi Valley toward the eastern Gulf Coast states.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 10%
wind 45%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 160043
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Valid 160100Z - 161200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO MID SOUTH AND EASTERN GULF COAST STATES
### SUMMARY
A squall line may continue to pose a risk for widespread strong to severe wind gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes through late evening as it progresses east of the middle Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley. The severe threat may continue into and through the overnight hours as it advances east of the lower Mississippi Valley toward the eastern Gulf Coast states.
01Z Update
The northern flank of the ongoing squall line, and closely trailing cold front, just south of the center of the deep cyclone migrating toward Lower Michigan, is beginning to undercut a narrow pre-frontal plume of mid 50s F surface dew points advecting north-northeastward through the lower Ohio Valley. As this continues through the next few hours, it appears that inflow may become characterized by steadily decreasing CAPE, emanating from downstream a boundary layer with dew points still in the upper 40s F from Lexington and Louisville KY northward. While this is likely to result in weakening thunderstorm activity, it is possible that widespread gusts generally approaching to exceeding 50 kt may be a bit slower to diminish.
Farther south, although an initial plume of better pre-frontal moisture return into the Mid South (characterized by lower 60s F dew points) may be overtaken by the squall line shortly, another plume of better boundary-layer moistening appears underway across eastern Mississippi and western Alabama. As this continues to develop northward this evening, beneath 40 kt southerly 850 mb flow, unstable inflow and strong shear may maintain or support re-intensification of storms across the Tennessee Valley into central and eastern Gulf States. Although model output has been varied, there remains at least some signal in potential for more discrete downstream supercell development within strengthening low-level warm advection late tonight across southeastern Alabama and adjacent portions of the Gulf Coast states. If this occurs, forecast low-level hodographs could support a strong tornado or two.
..Kerr.. 03/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Monday, March 16
Outlook Summary
Widespread severe storms are anticipated on Monday across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic States. Tornadoes, some strong, and particularly damaging winds are most likely from parts of South Carolina to Maryland during the afternoon.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 15%
wind 60%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 151730
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA…NORTH CAROLINA…VIRGINIA…MARYLAND…AND WASHINGTON D.C
### SUMMARY
Widespread severe storms are anticipated on Monday across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic States. Tornadoes, some strong, and particularly damaging winds are most likely from parts of South Carolina to Maryland during the afternoon.
Synopsis
An expansive upper trough from WI to the Ark-La-Tex will further amplify as the basal portion pivots rapidly northeastward towards the Appalachians. A deep surface cyclone over Lower MI will progress into QC, with an occluded front arcing southward to a minor low over western to central NY by Monday afternoon. A sharp cold front will extend south of this low across the Southeast into the northeast Gulf, sweeping east across the entire Atlantic Seaboard by 12Z Tuesday.
East
No change has been made to the ongoing level 4-MDT risk, with some expansion of the 3-ENH in GA, as well as expansions of 1-2/MRGL-SLGT across NY and FL. The highly meridional deep-layer flow regime suggests that surface-based instability appears more likely to develop into NY on Monday afternoon. This type of flow regime, along with substantial early-day convection south, both render some uncertainty on intensity amplitudes for wind/tornado across much of the ENH-MDT risk areas.
A broken band of pre-frontal convection should be ongoing at 12Z Monday from the lee of the southern Appalachians to the FL Panhandle. The downstream environment will already be favorable for supercells including strong tornado potential. With mid to upper 60s surface dew points and initially modestly steep mid-level lapse rates, a plume of moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg should diurnally expand from north FL through at least SC. Any semi-discrete supercells in this environment will have the potential to produce a strong tornado and large hail through early afternoon before large-scale outflow likely shifts offshore of the GA/north FL coast.
Destabilization farther north from NC to the DE Valley appears more uncertain, with potential for near-coastal convection within the low-level warm conveyor limiting more expansive/robust boundary-layer heating. A plume of weak MLCAPE up to 1000 J/kg should still develop across the Piedmont into parts of the coastal plain. Although flow fields will be highly meridional, they will be quite strong with an intense 700-mb jet strengthening across the Southeast behind the surface cold front. This will yield enlarged low-level hodograph curvature across much of the pre-frontal warm-moist sector.
Even weak boundary-layer heating will be sufficient for intensification of an extensive QLCS from western to central portions of NY/PA southward through VA/NC towards midday/early afternoon. Embedded supercell structures should be most pronounced south, where breaks in the QLCS are more probable. Some of these could be long-track with sporadic strong tornadoes, in addition to the background widespread damaging winds anticipated with the QLCS. This activity will eventually interact with cool trajectories near the coastal Atlantic and should result in waning of severe potential in the Northeast near sunset.
..Grams.. 03/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Tuesday, March 17
Outlook Summary
Thunder potential appears negligible on Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 151854
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunder potential appears negligible on Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Discussion
With a continental air mass enveloping the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts by Tuesday morning, thunder potential will become negligible. Isolated convection might linger near the extreme southern FL Peninsula and Keys just beyond 12Z Tuesday as the front reaches the Straits. Thunder probabilities over land appear to be around 10 percent through 15Z.
Elsewhere, conditions will be too dry/stable for lightning-producing convection through the period.
..Grams.. 03/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Wednesday, March 18
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, March 18 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, March 19 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, March 20 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, March 21 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, March 22 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150850 SPC AC 150850
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe storms appear unlikely across the CONUS for the D4-8 period, as an upper ridge holds over the Southwest with a mean upper trough over the East. This pattern will keep a surface high over much of the east/southeast CONUS, with northerly winds over the Gulf Of America for much of the period.
Models do indicate the upper ridge over the Southwest may weaken into the Sat/D7 and Sun/D8 time frame, with perhaps the pattern trending toward zonal. Even so, potential for any significant instability to develop over land remains minimal.
..Jewell.. 03/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, March 19
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, March 18 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, March 19 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, March 20 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, March 21 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, March 22 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150850 SPC AC 150850
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe storms appear unlikely across the CONUS for the D4-8 period, as an upper ridge holds over the Southwest with a mean upper trough over the East. This pattern will keep a surface high over much of the east/southeast CONUS, with northerly winds over the Gulf Of America for much of the period.
Models do indicate the upper ridge over the Southwest may weaken into the Sat/D7 and Sun/D8 time frame, with perhaps the pattern trending toward zonal. Even so, potential for any significant instability to develop over land remains minimal.
..Jewell.. 03/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, March 20
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, March 18 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, March 19 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, March 20 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, March 21 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, March 22 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150850 SPC AC 150850
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe storms appear unlikely across the CONUS for the D4-8 period, as an upper ridge holds over the Southwest with a mean upper trough over the East. This pattern will keep a surface high over much of the east/southeast CONUS, with northerly winds over the Gulf Of America for much of the period.
Models do indicate the upper ridge over the Southwest may weaken into the Sat/D7 and Sun/D8 time frame, with perhaps the pattern trending toward zonal. Even so, potential for any significant instability to develop over land remains minimal.
..Jewell.. 03/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, March 21
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, March 18 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, March 19 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, March 20 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, March 21 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, March 22 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150850 SPC AC 150850
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe storms appear unlikely across the CONUS for the D4-8 period, as an upper ridge holds over the Southwest with a mean upper trough over the East. This pattern will keep a surface high over much of the east/southeast CONUS, with northerly winds over the Gulf Of America for much of the period.
Models do indicate the upper ridge over the Southwest may weaken into the Sat/D7 and Sun/D8 time frame, with perhaps the pattern trending toward zonal. Even so, potential for any significant instability to develop over land remains minimal.
..Jewell.. 03/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, March 22
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, March 18 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, March 19 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, March 20 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, March 21 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, March 22 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150850 SPC AC 150850
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe storms appear unlikely across the CONUS for the D4-8 period, as an upper ridge holds over the Southwest with a mean upper trough over the East. This pattern will keep a surface high over much of the east/southeast CONUS, with northerly winds over the Gulf Of America for much of the period.
Models do indicate the upper ridge over the Southwest may weaken into the Sat/D7 and Sun/D8 time frame, with perhaps the pattern trending toward zonal. Even so, potential for any significant instability to develop over land remains minimal.
..Jewell.. 03/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, March 15
- TORNADO: 10%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 45%
- Monday, March 16
- TORNADO: 15%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 60%
- Tuesday, March 17
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Wednesday, March 18
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, March 19
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, March 20
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, March 21
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, March 22
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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