Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, July 5
Outlook Summary
Scattered wind damage remains possible with thunderstorms across the Mid-Atlantic and west-central Texas through the remainder of the evening. Large hail and damaging gusts may still occur with thunderstorms in North Dakota and Montana.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 30%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 060100
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026
Valid 060100Z - 061200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS…WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA…AND PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
### SUMMARY
Scattered wind damage remains possible with thunderstorms across the Mid-Atlantic and west-central Texas through the remainder of the evening. Large hail and damaging gusts may still occur with thunderstorms in North Dakota and Montana.
West-Central Texas
A forward-propagating MCS has evolved this evening across the TX Big Country into the Low Rolling Plains with gusts of 62 and 75 mph reported with the system over the past hour. The inflow air mass remains hot and relatively moist with latest objective analysis indicating MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. The KFDR VWP indicates a belt of 30-40 kt northerly winds in the 4-6 km AGL layer, which is likely enhancing vertical shear. This, when coupled with the presence of a relatively deep and well-mixed PBL, will continue to support severe wind gusts and sporadic hail occurrences for the next few hours as the MCS continues south into the Concho Valley.
For additional near-term details, see MCD 1517.
### Mid-Atlantic
Earlier, more discrete storms have gradually evolved into a larger-scale complex over southeast PA with that system tracking east along a subtle boundary that extends into central NJ. Additional storm clustering is noted farther south, near Baltimore, with latest model guidance suggesting additional consolidation of storms over the next hour or two across the Delmarva into the DE River Valley. The 00Z IAD sampled a moist and moderately unstable air mass, which featured steep lapse rates in the lowest 1-1.5 km AGL. While vertical shear is relatively weak, the steep lapse rates will support episodic cold-pool organization with an attendant risk for damaging winds for the next 1-3 hours.
For additional near-term information, see MCD 1518.
### Montana and North Dakota
Mesoanalysis places a surface front from western ND into south-central MT, with steep lapse rates and locally higher boundary-layer moisture contributing to a corridor of moderate to strong instability in the vicinity of the boundary over northwest ND into northeast MT. Widely scattered thunderstorms are ongoing this evening to the east of the boundary in western ND amidst a warmer and slightly drier boundary layer as sampled by the 00Z BIS sounding. The development of a nocturnal low-level jet may support some moistening late this evening into tonight; however, increasing convective inhibition may become more prohibitive to surface-based storm sustenance upon nightfall. Nonetheless, isolated occurrences of large hail and severe wind gusts remain possible with the ongoing storms for the next 1-3 hours.
Farther west, a separate thunderstorm regime is ongoing to the north of the surface front in central MT. The short-term models suggest a few of those storms could persist through the remainder of the evening with isolated occurrences of large hail and severe wind gusts possible.
..Mead.. 07/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Monday, July 6
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and severe gusts are possible across parts of the northern Plains into the Midwest. Damaging thunderstorm wind gusts are also possible across the Mid-Atlantic and lower Mississippi Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 051730
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST…THE MID-ATLANTIC…AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and severe gusts are possible across parts of the northern Plains into the Midwest. Damaging thunderstorm wind gusts are also possible across the Mid-Atlantic and lower Mississippi Valley.
Northern Plains into the Midwest
Within the base of a midlevel trough moving eastward across SK/MB, modest midlevel height falls and a belt of 40-kt midlevel flow will overspread the northern Plains and upper Midwest. This will promote scattered thunderstorms along a southeastward-moving cold front during the afternoon into the nighttime hours. Rich boundary-layer moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will yield strong buoyancy along/ahead of the front. This, combined with around 40 kt of effective shear, will promote a few organized clusters and possibly supercell structures capable of large hail and severe wind gusts.
Mid-Atlantic
In the vicinity of a surface trough in the lee of the Blue Ridge, bands and clusters of storms will overspread a moist and strongly unstable air mass during the afternoon. Despite limited deep-layer shear and related storm organization, the environment will be conducive for damaging wind gusts with the stronger cores.
Lower Mississippi Valley
An embedded midlevel impulse in the base of a broad, positive-tilt large-scale trough will provide a focus for scattered afternoon thunderstorm development across the lower MS Valley. Generally weak deep-layer shear will limit overall thunderstorm organization/longevity, though strong surface-based buoyancy and the potential for small bands/clusters of storms will favor damaging wind gusts.
..Weinman.. 07/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Tuesday, July 7
Outlook Summary
Strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk for scattered damaging wind gusts and large hail on Tuesday across parts of the middle Missouri Valley toward the Upper Midwest.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 051929
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA
### SUMMARY
Strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk for scattered damaging wind gusts and large hail on Tuesday across parts of the middle Missouri Valley toward the Upper Midwest.
Northern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest
Along the northern periphery of an expansive upper ridge centered over the Southwest, a low-amplitude midlevel impulse will advance eastward across the northern Plains into the Midwest through the period. Related forcing for ascent will support multiple rounds of thunderstorms, generally focused along an ENE/WSW-oriented surface boundary extending from the Upper Midwest into SD and NE.
While the details regarding convective evolution are unclear and will be largely influenced by mesoscale factors, a corridor of moderate-strong surface based buoyancy and elongated hodographs (40-50 kt of effective shear) will support the potential for eastward-spreading clusters and supercell structures capable of damaging winds and large hail through the afternoon/evening. The greatest potential for an upscale-growing cluster of storms capable of producing scattered damaging gusts is expected across parts of SD into southwestern MN – potentially aided by an eastward-moving surface wave and gradually strengthening nocturnal LLJ.
Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas
Diurnal heating of a very moist air mass (2+ inch PW) may promote wet microbursts and the potential for localized wind damage with the stronger thunderstorms that evolve during the afternoon. However, weak deep-layer flow/shear and nebulous forcing for ascent cast uncertainty on the overall severe risk, and severe-wind probabilities have been withheld at this time.
..Weinman.. 07/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Wednesday, July 8
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, July 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, July 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, July 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, July 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, July 12 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050851 SPC AC 050851
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
In the wake of a short wave trough pivoting inland of the British Columbia coast by mid week, medium-range guidance continues to indicate the gradual development of large-scale ridging across the much of the Intermountain West through Great Plains and Mississippi Valley late this week through next weekend. It appears that a center of seasonably high mid-level heights will evolve and develop northeastward, west through north of the Four Corners, into northern Colorado by the end of the period. Prior to and as this occurs, this may be preceded by the transition of a generally zonal to broadly cyclonic regime across and east of the northern Great Plains through northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard, but embedded short wave developments remain rather unclear.
Regardless, it still appears that substantive potential for organized severe thunderstorm development, if any, will largely remain influenced by sub-synoptic developments yet to evolve, and of particularly low predictability at this extended time frame.
..Kerr.. 07/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, July 9
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, July 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, July 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, July 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, July 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, July 12 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050851 SPC AC 050851
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
In the wake of a short wave trough pivoting inland of the British Columbia coast by mid week, medium-range guidance continues to indicate the gradual development of large-scale ridging across the much of the Intermountain West through Great Plains and Mississippi Valley late this week through next weekend. It appears that a center of seasonably high mid-level heights will evolve and develop northeastward, west through north of the Four Corners, into northern Colorado by the end of the period. Prior to and as this occurs, this may be preceded by the transition of a generally zonal to broadly cyclonic regime across and east of the northern Great Plains through northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard, but embedded short wave developments remain rather unclear.
Regardless, it still appears that substantive potential for organized severe thunderstorm development, if any, will largely remain influenced by sub-synoptic developments yet to evolve, and of particularly low predictability at this extended time frame.
..Kerr.. 07/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, July 10
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, July 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, July 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, July 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, July 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, July 12 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050851 SPC AC 050851
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
In the wake of a short wave trough pivoting inland of the British Columbia coast by mid week, medium-range guidance continues to indicate the gradual development of large-scale ridging across the much of the Intermountain West through Great Plains and Mississippi Valley late this week through next weekend. It appears that a center of seasonably high mid-level heights will evolve and develop northeastward, west through north of the Four Corners, into northern Colorado by the end of the period. Prior to and as this occurs, this may be preceded by the transition of a generally zonal to broadly cyclonic regime across and east of the northern Great Plains through northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard, but embedded short wave developments remain rather unclear.
Regardless, it still appears that substantive potential for organized severe thunderstorm development, if any, will largely remain influenced by sub-synoptic developments yet to evolve, and of particularly low predictability at this extended time frame.
..Kerr.. 07/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, July 11
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, July 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, July 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, July 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, July 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, July 12 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050851 SPC AC 050851
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
In the wake of a short wave trough pivoting inland of the British Columbia coast by mid week, medium-range guidance continues to indicate the gradual development of large-scale ridging across the much of the Intermountain West through Great Plains and Mississippi Valley late this week through next weekend. It appears that a center of seasonably high mid-level heights will evolve and develop northeastward, west through north of the Four Corners, into northern Colorado by the end of the period. Prior to and as this occurs, this may be preceded by the transition of a generally zonal to broadly cyclonic regime across and east of the northern Great Plains through northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard, but embedded short wave developments remain rather unclear.
Regardless, it still appears that substantive potential for organized severe thunderstorm development, if any, will largely remain influenced by sub-synoptic developments yet to evolve, and of particularly low predictability at this extended time frame.
..Kerr.. 07/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, July 12
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, July 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, July 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, July 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, July 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, July 12 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050851 SPC AC 050851
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
In the wake of a short wave trough pivoting inland of the British Columbia coast by mid week, medium-range guidance continues to indicate the gradual development of large-scale ridging across the much of the Intermountain West through Great Plains and Mississippi Valley late this week through next weekend. It appears that a center of seasonably high mid-level heights will evolve and develop northeastward, west through north of the Four Corners, into northern Colorado by the end of the period. Prior to and as this occurs, this may be preceded by the transition of a generally zonal to broadly cyclonic regime across and east of the northern Great Plains through northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard, but embedded short wave developments remain rather unclear.
Regardless, it still appears that substantive potential for organized severe thunderstorm development, if any, will largely remain influenced by sub-synoptic developments yet to evolve, and of particularly low predictability at this extended time frame.
..Kerr.. 07/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, July 5
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 30%
- Monday, July 6
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Tuesday, July 7
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Wednesday, July 8
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, July 9
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, July 10
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, July 11
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, July 12
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Your Severe Outlook
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