Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, September 11
Outlook Summary
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail up to two inches, damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes will continue through the remainder of the evening into tonight from far eastern South Dakota into portions of Minnesota. Isolated occurrences of severe wind gusts and large hail remain possible over parts of the central Plains tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 120028
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0728 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026
Valid 120100Z - 121200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA
### SUMMARY
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail up to two inches, damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes will continue through the remainder of the evening into tonight from far eastern South Dakota into portions of Minnesota. Isolated occurrences of severe wind gusts and large hail remain possible over parts of the central Plains tonight.
Upper Mississippi Valley into the central Plains
A broken band of thunderstorms has recently developed from far eastern SD into north-central MN within a relatively narrow instability axis preceding a surface cold front and dryline. The presence of steep mid-level lapse rates (per 00Z ABR sounding) atop boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F is resulting in MLCAPE up to 1500-2000 J/kg. As mentioned above, the corridor of stronger instability and minimal capping is rather narrow longitudinally, which suggests the severe weather threat may remain somewhat limited spatially into tonight.
The KFSD VWP is likely indicative of the ambient kinematic environment, which features 35-40 kt of deep-layer shear and relatively strong low-level shear, supportive of a supercell storm mode with the primary hazard being large hail up to two inches. Tornado potential will be conditional on the maintenance of semi-discrete supercells residing within the narrow axis of minimal convective inhibition. Damaging wind potential may tend to increase by late evening as thunderstorms evolve into line segments.
Additional storms appear possible late this evening into tonight ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front over portions of eastern and central NE. Similar to locations to the north, a relatively narrow zone of minimal convective inhibition and moderate instability exists ahead of the front, which leads to uncertainty in the areal coverage and duration of the threat. Severe wind gusts will be the primary hazard with any surface-based storms that can become established, though isolated occurrences of large hail are also possible.
..Mead.. 09/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Saturday, September 12
Outlook Summary
Widely scattered strong to severe storms may develop Saturday afternoon and evening over parts of the Central Plains. Isolated activity may also affect parts of the Upper Ohio Valley into western Pennsylvania.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 111726
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS…AND FROM OHIO/WEST VIRGINIA INTO PARTS OF WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
### SUMMARY
Widely scattered strong to severe storms may develop Saturday afternoon and evening over parts of the Central Plains. Isolated activity may also affect parts of the Upper Ohio Valley into western Pennsylvania.
Central Plains
Substantial forecast uncertainty exists on Saturday given the subtle forcing mechanisms at play. In general, sporadic severe storms appear will be possible as instability becomes strong south of a cold front from eastern KS into northwest OK where temperatures will become hot with minimal CIN. Even near/north of the cold front (into southeast NE, southern IA, northern MO), elevated instability may favor large hail. Overall lapse rate profiles will be steep, favoring both hail and wind, with sufficient mid to high level winds and deep-layer shear. Low-level winds will remain weak, and may favor highly deviant storm/cluster motions through the evening.
Eastern OH/WV into western PA
A weak midlevel wave is forecast to move across the region, with around 35 kt winds at 500 mb. Dry air will exist northeast of the region, but surface pressures will drop with increasing low-level moisture out of the south and mid to upper 60s F dewpoints developing. Storms are generally forecast to develop over OH and northeast KY, spread east across WV and western PA. Given the increasing wind speeds and somewhat favorable low-level shear, some of the storms could eventually produce damaging gusts, most likely as peak instability is achieved.
..Jewell.. 09/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Sunday, September 13
Outlook Summary
Strong storms accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather may occur across parts of the Northeast, and across parts of the north central Great Plains Sunday into Sunday night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 111921
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEASTERN STATES…AND NORTHERN PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Strong storms accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather may occur across parts of the Northeast, and across parts of the north central Great Plains Sunday into Sunday night.
Ohio into the Northeast
A large upper low/trough will push across eastern Canada on Sunday, with a strong speed max aloft spreading across the Great Lakes late in the day. A cold front will push toward the OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes late in the day, with a moist and marginally unstable air mass ahead of it. Areas of heating and lift near the boundary should support scattered afternoon/evening storms, and deep-layer shear of 30 to perhaps 40 kt could support a degree of organization. Lapse rates aloft appear to be poor overall, suggesting only a Marginal Risk of damaging gusts or hail will exist.
Northern Plains
High pressure will move from the northern Plains to the Upper Great Lakes as shortwave ridging occurs over the Plains during the day. A compact yet deep upper low is then forecast to move into the northern Rockies, with height falls increasing over the northern High Plains Sunday night.
The steeper low-level lapse rates will be confined to the higher terrain from east-central WY to the Front Range in CO, with generally stable low levels to the east due to high pressure. After a days worth of heating, isolated surface-based storms may occur late over eastern WY, with additional activity developing within the warm advection regime as the low-level jet increases over the central Plains. The overall threat appear minimal, and likely in the form of marginal hail.
..Jewell.. 09/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Monday, September 14
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, September 14 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, September 15 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, September 16 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, September 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, September 18 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110859 SPC AC 110859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range guidance indicates that a remnant cyclonic circulation and associated mid-level troughing, likely accelerating across the northern U.S. Rockies and adjacent international border vicinity by early Monday, may be accompanied by substantive surface cyclogenesis across southern Manitoba through northwestern Ontario Monday through Monday night, before continuing east-northeastward into the higher latitudes. It appears that this will occur coincident with the transition to a more progressive regime across the northern mid-latitude Pacific, including the gradual suppression of a blocking high initially to the southeast of the Aleutians. It also appears likely to coincide with the redevelopment of rather prominent mid/upper ridging becoming centered across the Tennessee Valley/southern Appalachians vicinity, and increasingly influential across much of the central and eastern U.S. into the middle to latter portions of next week, before becoming suppressed and retrograding west-southwestward.
In association with this regime, although there is some uncertainty concerning low-level moisture return and destabilization, it still appears that an evolving warm frontal zone could become a focus for organized strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of the middle Missouri Valley toward Upper Midwest late Monday afternoon into Monday night. Thereafter, the potential for organized severe thunderstorm development appears generally low, though there may still be areas of strong storm development with rather isolated or marginal severe weather potential.
..Kerr.. 09/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, September 15
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, September 14 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, September 15 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, September 16 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, September 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, September 18 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110859 SPC AC 110859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range guidance indicates that a remnant cyclonic circulation and associated mid-level troughing, likely accelerating across the northern U.S. Rockies and adjacent international border vicinity by early Monday, may be accompanied by substantive surface cyclogenesis across southern Manitoba through northwestern Ontario Monday through Monday night, before continuing east-northeastward into the higher latitudes. It appears that this will occur coincident with the transition to a more progressive regime across the northern mid-latitude Pacific, including the gradual suppression of a blocking high initially to the southeast of the Aleutians. It also appears likely to coincide with the redevelopment of rather prominent mid/upper ridging becoming centered across the Tennessee Valley/southern Appalachians vicinity, and increasingly influential across much of the central and eastern U.S. into the middle to latter portions of next week, before becoming suppressed and retrograding west-southwestward.
In association with this regime, although there is some uncertainty concerning low-level moisture return and destabilization, it still appears that an evolving warm frontal zone could become a focus for organized strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of the middle Missouri Valley toward Upper Midwest late Monday afternoon into Monday night. Thereafter, the potential for organized severe thunderstorm development appears generally low, though there may still be areas of strong storm development with rather isolated or marginal severe weather potential.
..Kerr.. 09/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, September 16
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, September 14 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, September 15 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, September 16 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, September 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, September 18 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110859 SPC AC 110859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range guidance indicates that a remnant cyclonic circulation and associated mid-level troughing, likely accelerating across the northern U.S. Rockies and adjacent international border vicinity by early Monday, may be accompanied by substantive surface cyclogenesis across southern Manitoba through northwestern Ontario Monday through Monday night, before continuing east-northeastward into the higher latitudes. It appears that this will occur coincident with the transition to a more progressive regime across the northern mid-latitude Pacific, including the gradual suppression of a blocking high initially to the southeast of the Aleutians. It also appears likely to coincide with the redevelopment of rather prominent mid/upper ridging becoming centered across the Tennessee Valley/southern Appalachians vicinity, and increasingly influential across much of the central and eastern U.S. into the middle to latter portions of next week, before becoming suppressed and retrograding west-southwestward.
In association with this regime, although there is some uncertainty concerning low-level moisture return and destabilization, it still appears that an evolving warm frontal zone could become a focus for organized strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of the middle Missouri Valley toward Upper Midwest late Monday afternoon into Monday night. Thereafter, the potential for organized severe thunderstorm development appears generally low, though there may still be areas of strong storm development with rather isolated or marginal severe weather potential.
..Kerr.. 09/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, September 17
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, September 14 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, September 15 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, September 16 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, September 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, September 18 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110859 SPC AC 110859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range guidance indicates that a remnant cyclonic circulation and associated mid-level troughing, likely accelerating across the northern U.S. Rockies and adjacent international border vicinity by early Monday, may be accompanied by substantive surface cyclogenesis across southern Manitoba through northwestern Ontario Monday through Monday night, before continuing east-northeastward into the higher latitudes. It appears that this will occur coincident with the transition to a more progressive regime across the northern mid-latitude Pacific, including the gradual suppression of a blocking high initially to the southeast of the Aleutians. It also appears likely to coincide with the redevelopment of rather prominent mid/upper ridging becoming centered across the Tennessee Valley/southern Appalachians vicinity, and increasingly influential across much of the central and eastern U.S. into the middle to latter portions of next week, before becoming suppressed and retrograding west-southwestward.
In association with this regime, although there is some uncertainty concerning low-level moisture return and destabilization, it still appears that an evolving warm frontal zone could become a focus for organized strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of the middle Missouri Valley toward Upper Midwest late Monday afternoon into Monday night. Thereafter, the potential for organized severe thunderstorm development appears generally low, though there may still be areas of strong storm development with rather isolated or marginal severe weather potential.
..Kerr.. 09/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, September 18
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, September 14 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, September 15 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, September 16 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, September 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, September 18 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110859 SPC AC 110859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range guidance indicates that a remnant cyclonic circulation and associated mid-level troughing, likely accelerating across the northern U.S. Rockies and adjacent international border vicinity by early Monday, may be accompanied by substantive surface cyclogenesis across southern Manitoba through northwestern Ontario Monday through Monday night, before continuing east-northeastward into the higher latitudes. It appears that this will occur coincident with the transition to a more progressive regime across the northern mid-latitude Pacific, including the gradual suppression of a blocking high initially to the southeast of the Aleutians. It also appears likely to coincide with the redevelopment of rather prominent mid/upper ridging becoming centered across the Tennessee Valley/southern Appalachians vicinity, and increasingly influential across much of the central and eastern U.S. into the middle to latter portions of next week, before becoming suppressed and retrograding west-southwestward.
In association with this regime, although there is some uncertainty concerning low-level moisture return and destabilization, it still appears that an evolving warm frontal zone could become a focus for organized strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of the middle Missouri Valley toward Upper Midwest late Monday afternoon into Monday night. Thereafter, the potential for organized severe thunderstorm development appears generally low, though there may still be areas of strong storm development with rather isolated or marginal severe weather potential.
..Kerr.. 09/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, September 11
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Saturday, September 12
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Sunday, September 13
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Monday, September 14
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Tuesday, September 15
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, September 16
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, September 17
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, September 18
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Your Severe Outlook
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