Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, September 25
Outlook Summary
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 251951
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026
Valid 252000Z - 261200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today.
20z Update
No changes were made to the existing outlook with this update as the forecast remains largely on track. Isolated thunderstorm development is noted across portions of western Oklahoma as of 1945 UTC, but cloud cover continues to generally temper surface heating ahead of this activity. While a stronger gust or two may still be possible (particularly where any developing convection can interact with pockets of stronger heating/greater low-level lapse rates), the overall severe risk continues to appear limited owing to the marginal thermodynamic/kinematic environment.
While the overall environment is marginally more favorable farther southwest across portions of southeast NM/West TX, relatively poor mid-level lapse rates and the displacement of better synoptic-scale forcing for ascent farther to the northwest suggest that convection will largely be tied to terrain influences. Coupled with a relatively narrow zone of greater buoyancy (as depicted by 19z objective analysis), this suggests that the overall severe risk should remain limited.
See the discussion below for additional details.
..Chalmers/Dean.. 09/25/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026/
Synopsis
An MCS is decaying across the TX Panhandle/South Plains late this morning. Outflow associated with this area of convection is spreading south and east, while areas of rain and cloud cover slowly develop northeastward toward western OK. In the wake of this early day convection, some airmass recovery and modest destabilization is possible across southeast NM into far southwest TX where stronger heating is occurring amid more scattered cloudiness. Likewise, across western OK ahead of the TX Panhandle convection and outflow, more isolated cloud cover is allowing for stronger heating of a moist boundary layer.
Southeast NM/Southwest TX
Midlevel lapse rates are expected to remain modest and MLCAPE will range from 500-1000 J/kg by mid/late afternoon. Isolated convection may develop near higher terrain initially across southeast NM/southwest TX. A storm or two could briefly become strong and produce marginal hail, but the severe risk is expected to be tempered by the marginal thermodynamic/kinematic parameter space in the wake of the early day MCS.
Western OK
While currently mostly sunny across western OK, afternoon heating could become muted by cloud cover as showers associated with the ongoing TX Panhandle activity spread east/northeast the next few hours. This could limit stronger destabilization/steepening of low-level lapse rates within a modestly sheared environment. A strong gust or two could occur if sufficient heating/steepening of low-level lapse rates unfolds. However, given modest vertical shear, weak midlevel lapse rates, and marginal instability, the overall severe risk appears limited.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Saturday, September 26
Outlook Summary
Isolated hail and strong outflow winds may accompany thunderstorms across portions of the central and southern Plains Saturday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 251726
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
### SUMMARY
Isolated hail and strong outflow winds may accompany thunderstorms across portions of the central and southern Plains Saturday.
Synopsis
A persistent moisture plume and associated midlevel trough will be shunted eastward into the southern/central Plains as upstream heights rise over the southern Rockies, east of another weak trough just off the northern CA coast. A deep occluding cyclone will remain just off the northern Mid-Atlantic coast. In a warm advection regime near the southeast New England coast, midlevel buoyancy/depth could be sufficient for a few lightning flashes with elevated convection. A trailing cold front will drift southward into the FL Straits. Some air mass modification is expected along the southeast FL coast, where a confluence zone could support low-topped, warm process convection. However, a pronounced midlevel inversion will likely preclude sufficiently deep convection for charge separation.
Southern/central Plains late Saturday afternoon/evening
Surface-based thunderstorm development will be possible late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening within the lingering moisture plume and along a surface trough from northwest TX into central KS. A deep, surface mixed layer in areas with less cloud debris will favor isolated strong outflow gusts. The larger-scale mass response will remain weak, though vertical shear will be marginally favorable for some storm organization and an associated threat for isolated large hail.
..Thompson.. 09/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Sunday, September 27
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 251926
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.
Synopsis
Changes to the large-scale pattern will be slow Sunday into early Monday with an occluded cyclone expected to remain near the northern Mid-Atlantic coast. A midlevel shortwave trough will progress inland to CA/NV, with downstream ridging from the southern High Plains to the upper MS Valley. A weakening surface front will stall near the I-44 corridor from MO into OK, and a warm advection regime will develop late in the period across the Dakotas.
Isolated lightning flashes still may occur with elevated convection near the southeast New England coast in association with warm advection. A few thunderstorms will be possible through the day Sunday from MO into OK and north TX along the weakening front. Elevated thunderstorms will be possible Sunday night into the Dakotas where sufficient moistening occurs with strengthening warm advection. A few diurnal thunderstorms will be possible from southeast AZ into NM and far west TX within the lingering monsoonal moisture plume. The threat for isolated thunderstorms may persist through late Sunday/early Monday into more of the Rockies as moisture and ascent increase gradually downstream from the CA/NV midlevel trough. Severe thunderstorms are not expected as a result of consistently weak buoyancy and vertical shear in all of the aforementioned areas.
..Thompson.. 09/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Monday, September 28
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, September 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, September 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, September 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, October 1 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, October 2 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250824 SPC AC 250824
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper troughing over the Interior West, containing multiple smaller impulses, will gradually progress eastward to the Plains states through the middle of the week (Days 5-7/Tuesday-Thursday) before another mid-level trough approaches the central U.S. by next weekend. Deterministic medium-range guidance consensus depicts the development of a surface low over the southern Plains around Day 6/Wednesday, accompanied by seasonal low-level moisture return. However, guidance also depicts a poor overlap of vertical wind shear with the moist axis, likely inhibiting greater severe potential, in agreement with calibrated ML/AI guidance consensus. As such, no probabilities were introduced this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 09/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, September 29
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, September 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, September 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, September 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, October 1 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, October 2 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250824 SPC AC 250824
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper troughing over the Interior West, containing multiple smaller impulses, will gradually progress eastward to the Plains states through the middle of the week (Days 5-7/Tuesday-Thursday) before another mid-level trough approaches the central U.S. by next weekend. Deterministic medium-range guidance consensus depicts the development of a surface low over the southern Plains around Day 6/Wednesday, accompanied by seasonal low-level moisture return. However, guidance also depicts a poor overlap of vertical wind shear with the moist axis, likely inhibiting greater severe potential, in agreement with calibrated ML/AI guidance consensus. As such, no probabilities were introduced this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 09/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, September 30
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, September 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, September 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, September 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, October 1 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, October 2 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250824 SPC AC 250824
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper troughing over the Interior West, containing multiple smaller impulses, will gradually progress eastward to the Plains states through the middle of the week (Days 5-7/Tuesday-Thursday) before another mid-level trough approaches the central U.S. by next weekend. Deterministic medium-range guidance consensus depicts the development of a surface low over the southern Plains around Day 6/Wednesday, accompanied by seasonal low-level moisture return. However, guidance also depicts a poor overlap of vertical wind shear with the moist axis, likely inhibiting greater severe potential, in agreement with calibrated ML/AI guidance consensus. As such, no probabilities were introduced this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 09/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, October 1
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, September 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, September 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, September 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, October 1 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, October 2 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250824 SPC AC 250824
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper troughing over the Interior West, containing multiple smaller impulses, will gradually progress eastward to the Plains states through the middle of the week (Days 5-7/Tuesday-Thursday) before another mid-level trough approaches the central U.S. by next weekend. Deterministic medium-range guidance consensus depicts the development of a surface low over the southern Plains around Day 6/Wednesday, accompanied by seasonal low-level moisture return. However, guidance also depicts a poor overlap of vertical wind shear with the moist axis, likely inhibiting greater severe potential, in agreement with calibrated ML/AI guidance consensus. As such, no probabilities were introduced this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 09/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, October 2
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, September 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, September 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, September 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, October 1 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, October 2 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250824 SPC AC 250824
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper troughing over the Interior West, containing multiple smaller impulses, will gradually progress eastward to the Plains states through the middle of the week (Days 5-7/Tuesday-Thursday) before another mid-level trough approaches the central U.S. by next weekend. Deterministic medium-range guidance consensus depicts the development of a surface low over the southern Plains around Day 6/Wednesday, accompanied by seasonal low-level moisture return. However, guidance also depicts a poor overlap of vertical wind shear with the moist axis, likely inhibiting greater severe potential, in agreement with calibrated ML/AI guidance consensus. As such, no probabilities were introduced this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 09/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, September 25
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Saturday, September 26
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Sunday, September 27
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Monday, September 28
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, September 29
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, September 30
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, October 1
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, October 2
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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