Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, November 12
Outlook Summary
A couple of strong thunderstorms, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather, may impact parts of the northern Mid Atlantic this afternoon.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 120521
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA…MUCH OF DELAWARE…ADJACENT EASTERN MARYLAND AND SOUTHERN THROUGH CENTRAL NEW JERSEY
### SUMMARY
A couple of strong thunderstorms, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather, may impact parts of the northern Mid Atlantic this afternoon.
Discussion
Downstream of amplified mid-level ridging, which may have reached peak amplitude across the U.S. Intermountain West and Rockies through much of the Canadian Prairies, a number of digging short wave perturbations are forecast to contribute to the evolution of a more prominent, positively tilted mid-level trough. This may encompass most areas near and east of the Mississippi River through the Atlantic Seaboard by 12Z Friday.
One leading short wave trough is generally forecast to turn east and northeast of the Allegheny/Cumberland Plateau through the northern Mid Atlantic by late this afternoon, before undergoing considerable deformation as it progresses farther to the northeast. It appears that this may be accompanied by an initially modest surface cyclone, which may undergo notable deepening during the day while redeveloping to the east-northeast of the Blue Ridge, before occluding across the northern Mid Atlantic this evening.
Northern Mid Atlantic
Low-level moisture return inland of the coast appears likely to be rather limited. However, boundary-layer dew points increasing through the lower/mid 50s F, within a corridor along a warm frontal zone to the east of the surface low, may be sufficient to yield mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 500 J/kg when coupled with mid-level cooling (including 500 mb temperatures of -20 to -22 C). Based on forecast soundings, this may include buoyancy rooted near and just off the surface, as low-level lapse rates steepen beneath the cold air and boundary-layer humidity remains relatively high along the frontal zone. Although low-level hodographs might not become more than modestly large, in the presence of moderate deep-layer shear, it appears at least possible that the environment could become conducive to the evolution of one or two supercell structures posing some risk for a tornado. Otherwise, stronger cells this afternoon may be accompanied by small to perhaps marginally severe hail and locally strong surface gusts, before weakening by evening.
..Kerr/Chalmers.. 11/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Friday, November 13
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected Friday into early Saturday morning.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 111923
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected Friday into early Saturday morning.
Synopsis
A broad upper trough will prevail over the eastern CONUS while a broad, negatively tilted upper trough deepens west of the Rockies on Friday. Surface high pressure will reinforce a stable airmass east of the Rockies, limiting thunderstorm development over most of the CONUS. A few lightning flashes are possible across portions of the Desert Southwest into the southern High Plains in association with a warm-air advection regime preceding the upper trough. A couple of lightning flashes may also occur along the Pacific coastline closer to the upper trough in association with a plume of cooler temperatures aloft.
..Squitieri.. 11/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Saturday, November 14
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, November 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, November 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, November 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, November 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, November 18 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 111000 SPC AC 111000
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
Over the coming weekend, a mid-level shortwave trough will move from the Desert Southwest into the southern Plains. Ahead of the trough, moisture advection is forecast across much of Texas and Oklahoma, where surface dewpoints could increase into the 50s and 60s F. This would contribute to weak instability over parts of the southern Plains Sunday afternoon. Uncertainty exists on where the northern extent of the instability will be but it seems likely that enough instability will be in place by late Sunday afternoon for an isolated severe threat in parts of central and north Texas. As the system moves eastward across the Southeast from Monday to Wednesday, thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the trough each day from the central Gulf Coast to the Florida Peninsula. The best chance for an isolated severe threat would be on Wednesday over the Florida Peninsula where an unstable airmass is forecast as the trough passes.
..Broyles.. 11/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, November 15
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, November 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, November 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, November 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, November 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, November 18 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 111000 SPC AC 111000
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
Over the coming weekend, a mid-level shortwave trough will move from the Desert Southwest into the southern Plains. Ahead of the trough, moisture advection is forecast across much of Texas and Oklahoma, where surface dewpoints could increase into the 50s and 60s F. This would contribute to weak instability over parts of the southern Plains Sunday afternoon. Uncertainty exists on where the northern extent of the instability will be but it seems likely that enough instability will be in place by late Sunday afternoon for an isolated severe threat in parts of central and north Texas. As the system moves eastward across the Southeast from Monday to Wednesday, thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the trough each day from the central Gulf Coast to the Florida Peninsula. The best chance for an isolated severe threat would be on Wednesday over the Florida Peninsula where an unstable airmass is forecast as the trough passes.
..Broyles.. 11/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, November 16
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, November 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, November 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, November 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, November 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, November 18 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 111000 SPC AC 111000
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
Over the coming weekend, a mid-level shortwave trough will move from the Desert Southwest into the southern Plains. Ahead of the trough, moisture advection is forecast across much of Texas and Oklahoma, where surface dewpoints could increase into the 50s and 60s F. This would contribute to weak instability over parts of the southern Plains Sunday afternoon. Uncertainty exists on where the northern extent of the instability will be but it seems likely that enough instability will be in place by late Sunday afternoon for an isolated severe threat in parts of central and north Texas. As the system moves eastward across the Southeast from Monday to Wednesday, thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the trough each day from the central Gulf Coast to the Florida Peninsula. The best chance for an isolated severe threat would be on Wednesday over the Florida Peninsula where an unstable airmass is forecast as the trough passes.
..Broyles.. 11/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, November 17
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, November 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, November 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, November 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, November 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, November 18 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 111000 SPC AC 111000
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
Over the coming weekend, a mid-level shortwave trough will move from the Desert Southwest into the southern Plains. Ahead of the trough, moisture advection is forecast across much of Texas and Oklahoma, where surface dewpoints could increase into the 50s and 60s F. This would contribute to weak instability over parts of the southern Plains Sunday afternoon. Uncertainty exists on where the northern extent of the instability will be but it seems likely that enough instability will be in place by late Sunday afternoon for an isolated severe threat in parts of central and north Texas. As the system moves eastward across the Southeast from Monday to Wednesday, thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the trough each day from the central Gulf Coast to the Florida Peninsula. The best chance for an isolated severe threat would be on Wednesday over the Florida Peninsula where an unstable airmass is forecast as the trough passes.
..Broyles.. 11/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, November 18
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, November 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, November 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, November 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, November 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, November 18 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 111000 SPC AC 111000
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
Over the coming weekend, a mid-level shortwave trough will move from the Desert Southwest into the southern Plains. Ahead of the trough, moisture advection is forecast across much of Texas and Oklahoma, where surface dewpoints could increase into the 50s and 60s F. This would contribute to weak instability over parts of the southern Plains Sunday afternoon. Uncertainty exists on where the northern extent of the instability will be but it seems likely that enough instability will be in place by late Sunday afternoon for an isolated severe threat in parts of central and north Texas. As the system moves eastward across the Southeast from Monday to Wednesday, thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the trough each day from the central Gulf Coast to the Florida Peninsula. The best chance for an isolated severe threat would be on Wednesday over the Florida Peninsula where an unstable airmass is forecast as the trough passes.
..Broyles.. 11/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, November 12
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Friday, November 13
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Saturday, November 14
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, November 15
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, November 16
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, November 17
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, November 18
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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