Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Tuesday, April 14

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through tonight from the southern Plains into the Midwest. Large to giant hail, several tornadoes (some strong), and swaths of severe/damaging gusts are all likely, particularly from Iowa into the southern Great Lakes.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 141630

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Valid 141630Z - 151200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS

### THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through tonight from the southern Plains into the Midwest. Large to giant hail, several tornadoes (some strong), and swaths of severe/damaging gusts are all likely, particularly from Iowa into the southern Great Lakes.

Synopsis

An active severe weather day is anticipated for much of the southern/central Plains into the Midwest/Great Lakes and parts of the Northeast. The primary upper trough centered over the Four Corners late this morning will eject east-northeastward towards the southern/central Plains by this evening, while a separate mid-level shortwave trough over the northern Plains/Upper Midwest will also move east-northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes into Ontario. Another convectively enhanced low-amplitude shortwave trough will also develop eastward across the Lower Great Lakes into the Northeast.

Recent surface analysis indicates multiple surface lows, with one over southern Ontario and another over southeast NE/northeast KS. A seasonably rich/moist low-level airmass exists to the south of a front extending between these two lows, with surface dewpoints already in the low to mid 60s across much of the southern/central Plains to the east of a dryline. Both the dryline in the southern/central Plains and developing warm front in the Midwest/southern Great Lakes will likely serve as foci for intense thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, including the potential for several supercells.

Midwest/Ohio Valley/Great Lakes

A complex scenario for severe thunderstorms remains apparent across the Midwest/OH Valley into the southern Great Lakes today, with multiple outflow boundaries from earlier convection rendering greater than usual uncertainty with the southward extent of possible thunderstorm development in IL/IN/OH. In general, continued low-level warm advection from the central Plains into the Midwest/OH Valley will support a moistening/destabilizing airmass through the afternoon as a northern-stream shortwave trough moves eastward across the Upper Midwest. A surface warm front will extend northeastward from a weak surface low in IA across southern WI and Lower MI. It still appears likely that multiple intense supercells will develop by 20-21Z along/near this boundary in IA/southern WI/northern IL in a very favorable airmass for significant severe hail given strong deep-layer shear and the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates. Low-level shear is expected to gradually strengthen through the evening in tandem with a modestly increasing south-southwesterly low-level jet.

Any supercells than can remain on the warm/south side of the front will be capable of producing tornadoes, a few of which could be strong (EF-2/3). Some consideration was given to including greater tornado probabilities and a Moderate Risk (level 4 of 5) focused across southern WI/far northern IL. But, convection may have a tendency to grow upscale fairly quickly this evening, so confidence was not high enough for a categorical upgrade at this time. Regardless, very large to giant hail (potentially up to 3-4 inches in diameter) will be a threat with sustained supercells, and a swath of severe/damaging winds appears likely with a convective cluster spreading eastward across southern Lower MI this evening into tonight.

A somewhat separate area of severe potential should also exist farther south across central IL into IN/OH this afternoon and evening. Greater low-level moisture and related instability are expected to exist across these areas compared to locations farther north. While large-scale forcing should remain fairly weak/nebulous across this region, a remnant outflow boundary may provide a focus for supercell development across central IL into IN by 20-21Z. Have expanded the Slight Risk for large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes southward across these areas to account for this still somewhat uncertain potential.

Southern/Central Plains

12Z observed soundings from DRT/MAF/FWD/OUN/TOP show the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates atop rich low-level moisture (generally 14-15 g/kg mean mixing ratios) along/east of the surface dryline. Southwesterly mid-level flow and modest ascent preceding the upper trough over the Southwest/southern Rockies will gradually overspread the warm sector by mid to late afternoon. Moderate to strong instability (MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg, locally stronger possible) and 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear will support multiple intense supercells. Explosive convective initiation across parts of western OK into south-central/southeast KS is expected by 20-21Z as lingering MLCIN erodes with filtered daytime heating and as convective temperatures are breached.

The overall thermodynamic and kinematic environment appears quite favorable for very large to potentially giant hail (up to 3-4 inches in diameter) with any supercells that spread east-northeastward through the afternoon/evening. A gradually strengthening low-level jet across OK/KS by 00Z will also support a threat for a few tornadoes, a couple of which could be strong as low-level hodographs become enlarged. Gradual upscale growth/clustering should occur with time through the evening, with some risk for severe/damaging winds. The Enhanced Risk has been expanded a bit northeastward into south-central/southeast KS for a focused severe wind corridor. Farther south along the length of the dryline in TX, isolated to scattered supercells may develop this afternoon and evening, with a risk for mainly large to very large hail and occasional severe gusts.

Northeast

Ongoing convection across southern Ontario and the Lower Great Lakes will continue to track eastward this afternoon into NY and parts of New England in tandem with a low-amplitude shortwave trough. Gradual clearing of low/mid-level clouds has already encouraged surface temperatures to warm into the 70s along/south of west-east oriented front. Thunderstorms are expected to gradually increase in coverage and intensity as weak to locally moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear support organized updrafts, including the potential for some supercells initially. The greatest severe risk will probably be scattered damaging winds given a tendency for convection to consolidate into one or more clusters. But, an isolated severe hail threat may exist with any sustained supercell, along with some chance for a tornado or two near the front where low-level shear will be locally enhanced.

..Gleason/Chalmers.. 04/14/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, April 15

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for large hail, strong wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across portions of the southern Plains toward the Great Lakes Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 141738

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN…AND FROM NORTHERN OHIO INTO PENNSYLVANIA

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for large hail, strong wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across portions of the southern Plains toward the Great Lakes Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Synopsis

A positive-tilt upper trough will be located over the central Plains on Wednesday and will move across the MS Valley and toward the Great Lakes late. Moderate to strong mid to high level southwesterlies will exist over much of the central and southern Plains, along with cool temperatures aloft. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will hold over the Southeast, with moderate winds aloft along the periphery of the upper ridge extending from the OH Valley into the Northeast.

At the surface, low pressure will develop into IA as the upper wave moves out of NE and KS. A front/dryline will extend south across eastern KS, western OK and west central TX during the day. Meanwhile, an elongated stationary front will extend from IA into southern WI/MI and into the lower Great Lakes, with more of a warm front into NY and southern New England. Mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will remain roughly from TX into IA, with lower 60s F dewpoints along the length of the stationary front.

TX/OK/KS/IA/MO/IL

A focused area of severe storm potential will develop south of the developing low and along the dryline during the afternoon. Although the wave will be moving away from OK/TX, the dryline should stall with strong instability developing and MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg. Minimal lift will be required near the dryline to initiate afternoon storms, possibly before 21Z. Cells should develop from northwest TX across OK and into southeast KS, and gain strength as 50-60 kt effective shear acts upon them. Both supercells and bowing structures will be possible, with areas of very large hail and damaging winds expected. A few tornadoes may occur given the strong instability and midlevel lapse rates, despite marginal low-level wind fields.

Farther north, another zone of supercell potential is evident from northern MO into IA and western IL late in the day ahead of the shortwave trough. Here, deep-layer shear vector orientation will be quite favorable for discrete cells, with hail likely. Any early day storms may affect warm sector quality, but conditionally, a tornado will be possible.

From WI/IL eastward into PA

Areas of heating and warm advection toward the frontal zone will result in widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms erupting over IL, IN, southern WI, northern OH and into western PA by 21Z. Favorable deep-layer shear averaging near 40 kt and at least 1500 J/kg MUCAPE along this zone will favor storms producing hail and locally damaging gusts. Storm modes may be mixed.

..Jewell.. 04/14/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Thursday, April 16

Outlook Summary

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday extending from southeast Missouri across the Ohio Valley and into parts of New York.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 141915

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION INTO PARTS OF NEW YORK

### SUMMARY

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday extending from southeast Missouri across the Ohio Valley and into parts of New York.

Synopsis

A progressive pattern will persist on Thursday, with a leading shortwave trough moving quickly across OH valley into the Northeast. This wave will breakdown the ridge along the East Coast, and provide a focus for scattered strong storms. Low-level warm advection out of the west/southwest will help destabilize the region with storms most likely during the afternoon from the Lower Great Lake across much of upstate NY and northern PA. Instability will be sufficient to support a few fast-moving cells capable of marginal hail and locally damaging gusts.

To the southeast, storm coverage is less certain, particularly from AR/MO into the lower OH Valley. Here, cool temperatures aloft will linger, aiding instability, though somewhat behind the upper trough affecting the northeastern states. Showers and storms are most likely in the morning in association with the main wave, but conditional severe probabilities will be higher during the afternoon when instability redevelops. Any storms that form will be capable of producing hail, from MO into AR, western TN/KY, IL and IN.

..Jewell.. 04/14/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Friday, April 17

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140846 SPC AC 140846

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

CORRECTED FOR DAY 5 GRAPHIC LABEL

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Friday - Southern Plains to Upper Midwest

A strong upper trough oriented from Montana to the Southwest will eject eastward to the Plains on Friday/Friday night. Southwesterly mid/upper flow will intensify ahead of this feature, with 40-60 kt 850-700 mb flow forecast by late afternoon into the nighttime hours. A somewhat complex surface pattern is forecast, with a lee low deepening over the central/southern High Plains to western OK, and a second surface low near the Mid-Missouri Valley developing northeast into Ontario. A surface dryline will extend from the High Plains low to near the western OK/TX panhandle border into central TX by midday. Meanwhile, a cold front will be oriented from eastern MN into central KS at midday.

Ahead of these surface features, a broad warm sector characterized by mid/upper 60s F dewpoints will be in place as temperatures warm into the 80s F. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the region, resulting in moderate to strong destabilization. Forecast soundings indicated impressive wind profiles supporting supercells. Initial supercell storms capable of all hazards (including very large hail and strong tornadoes) are expected. During the evening, convection may grow upscale into a squall line as storms near the Mississippi River, with an accompanying increase in damaging wind potential.

Day 5/Saturday - Ohio Valley/Great Lakes vicinity

A severe risk will likely continue into Saturday as the upper trough continues to strengthen and shift east from the Plains to the Great Lakes/Midwest. Strong deep-layer flow parallel to an eastward-advancing cold front will overspread a moist and at least weakly unstable downstream airmass through evening. This will favor a line of convection with damaging wind potential.

Days 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday

The surface cold front will continue east on Sunday, moving offshore the Atlantic and Gulf coasts during the afternoon. Severe potential appears limited by weak instability and mainly anafrontal precipitation across the Southeast to Eastern U.S. on Sunday. Surface high pressure and a dearth of boundary layer moisture in the wake of the cold front will preclude thunderstorm activity on Monday. By the end of the period, medium range guidance depicts another upper trough moving into the western U.S. and Gulf return flow will advect moisture back into the southern Plains. However, severe thunderstorm potential appears low at this time.

..Leitman.. 04/14/2026

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Outlook for Saturday, April 18

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140846 SPC AC 140846

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

CORRECTED FOR DAY 5 GRAPHIC LABEL

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Friday - Southern Plains to Upper Midwest

A strong upper trough oriented from Montana to the Southwest will eject eastward to the Plains on Friday/Friday night. Southwesterly mid/upper flow will intensify ahead of this feature, with 40-60 kt 850-700 mb flow forecast by late afternoon into the nighttime hours. A somewhat complex surface pattern is forecast, with a lee low deepening over the central/southern High Plains to western OK, and a second surface low near the Mid-Missouri Valley developing northeast into Ontario. A surface dryline will extend from the High Plains low to near the western OK/TX panhandle border into central TX by midday. Meanwhile, a cold front will be oriented from eastern MN into central KS at midday.

Ahead of these surface features, a broad warm sector characterized by mid/upper 60s F dewpoints will be in place as temperatures warm into the 80s F. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the region, resulting in moderate to strong destabilization. Forecast soundings indicated impressive wind profiles supporting supercells. Initial supercell storms capable of all hazards (including very large hail and strong tornadoes) are expected. During the evening, convection may grow upscale into a squall line as storms near the Mississippi River, with an accompanying increase in damaging wind potential.

Day 5/Saturday - Ohio Valley/Great Lakes vicinity

A severe risk will likely continue into Saturday as the upper trough continues to strengthen and shift east from the Plains to the Great Lakes/Midwest. Strong deep-layer flow parallel to an eastward-advancing cold front will overspread a moist and at least weakly unstable downstream airmass through evening. This will favor a line of convection with damaging wind potential.

Days 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday

The surface cold front will continue east on Sunday, moving offshore the Atlantic and Gulf coasts during the afternoon. Severe potential appears limited by weak instability and mainly anafrontal precipitation across the Southeast to Eastern U.S. on Sunday. Surface high pressure and a dearth of boundary layer moisture in the wake of the cold front will preclude thunderstorm activity on Monday. By the end of the period, medium range guidance depicts another upper trough moving into the western U.S. and Gulf return flow will advect moisture back into the southern Plains. However, severe thunderstorm potential appears low at this time.

..Leitman.. 04/14/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, April 19

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140846 SPC AC 140846

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

CORRECTED FOR DAY 5 GRAPHIC LABEL

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Friday - Southern Plains to Upper Midwest

A strong upper trough oriented from Montana to the Southwest will eject eastward to the Plains on Friday/Friday night. Southwesterly mid/upper flow will intensify ahead of this feature, with 40-60 kt 850-700 mb flow forecast by late afternoon into the nighttime hours. A somewhat complex surface pattern is forecast, with a lee low deepening over the central/southern High Plains to western OK, and a second surface low near the Mid-Missouri Valley developing northeast into Ontario. A surface dryline will extend from the High Plains low to near the western OK/TX panhandle border into central TX by midday. Meanwhile, a cold front will be oriented from eastern MN into central KS at midday.

Ahead of these surface features, a broad warm sector characterized by mid/upper 60s F dewpoints will be in place as temperatures warm into the 80s F. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the region, resulting in moderate to strong destabilization. Forecast soundings indicated impressive wind profiles supporting supercells. Initial supercell storms capable of all hazards (including very large hail and strong tornadoes) are expected. During the evening, convection may grow upscale into a squall line as storms near the Mississippi River, with an accompanying increase in damaging wind potential.

Day 5/Saturday - Ohio Valley/Great Lakes vicinity

A severe risk will likely continue into Saturday as the upper trough continues to strengthen and shift east from the Plains to the Great Lakes/Midwest. Strong deep-layer flow parallel to an eastward-advancing cold front will overspread a moist and at least weakly unstable downstream airmass through evening. This will favor a line of convection with damaging wind potential.

Days 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday

The surface cold front will continue east on Sunday, moving offshore the Atlantic and Gulf coasts during the afternoon. Severe potential appears limited by weak instability and mainly anafrontal precipitation across the Southeast to Eastern U.S. on Sunday. Surface high pressure and a dearth of boundary layer moisture in the wake of the cold front will preclude thunderstorm activity on Monday. By the end of the period, medium range guidance depicts another upper trough moving into the western U.S. and Gulf return flow will advect moisture back into the southern Plains. However, severe thunderstorm potential appears low at this time.

..Leitman.. 04/14/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, April 20

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140846 SPC AC 140846

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

CORRECTED FOR DAY 5 GRAPHIC LABEL

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Friday - Southern Plains to Upper Midwest

A strong upper trough oriented from Montana to the Southwest will eject eastward to the Plains on Friday/Friday night. Southwesterly mid/upper flow will intensify ahead of this feature, with 40-60 kt 850-700 mb flow forecast by late afternoon into the nighttime hours. A somewhat complex surface pattern is forecast, with a lee low deepening over the central/southern High Plains to western OK, and a second surface low near the Mid-Missouri Valley developing northeast into Ontario. A surface dryline will extend from the High Plains low to near the western OK/TX panhandle border into central TX by midday. Meanwhile, a cold front will be oriented from eastern MN into central KS at midday.

Ahead of these surface features, a broad warm sector characterized by mid/upper 60s F dewpoints will be in place as temperatures warm into the 80s F. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the region, resulting in moderate to strong destabilization. Forecast soundings indicated impressive wind profiles supporting supercells. Initial supercell storms capable of all hazards (including very large hail and strong tornadoes) are expected. During the evening, convection may grow upscale into a squall line as storms near the Mississippi River, with an accompanying increase in damaging wind potential.

Day 5/Saturday - Ohio Valley/Great Lakes vicinity

A severe risk will likely continue into Saturday as the upper trough continues to strengthen and shift east from the Plains to the Great Lakes/Midwest. Strong deep-layer flow parallel to an eastward-advancing cold front will overspread a moist and at least weakly unstable downstream airmass through evening. This will favor a line of convection with damaging wind potential.

Days 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday

The surface cold front will continue east on Sunday, moving offshore the Atlantic and Gulf coasts during the afternoon. Severe potential appears limited by weak instability and mainly anafrontal precipitation across the Southeast to Eastern U.S. on Sunday. Surface high pressure and a dearth of boundary layer moisture in the wake of the cold front will preclude thunderstorm activity on Monday. By the end of the period, medium range guidance depicts another upper trough moving into the western U.S. and Gulf return flow will advect moisture back into the southern Plains. However, severe thunderstorm potential appears low at this time.

..Leitman.. 04/14/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, April 21

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140846 SPC AC 140846

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

CORRECTED FOR DAY 5 GRAPHIC LABEL

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Friday - Southern Plains to Upper Midwest

A strong upper trough oriented from Montana to the Southwest will eject eastward to the Plains on Friday/Friday night. Southwesterly mid/upper flow will intensify ahead of this feature, with 40-60 kt 850-700 mb flow forecast by late afternoon into the nighttime hours. A somewhat complex surface pattern is forecast, with a lee low deepening over the central/southern High Plains to western OK, and a second surface low near the Mid-Missouri Valley developing northeast into Ontario. A surface dryline will extend from the High Plains low to near the western OK/TX panhandle border into central TX by midday. Meanwhile, a cold front will be oriented from eastern MN into central KS at midday.

Ahead of these surface features, a broad warm sector characterized by mid/upper 60s F dewpoints will be in place as temperatures warm into the 80s F. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the region, resulting in moderate to strong destabilization. Forecast soundings indicated impressive wind profiles supporting supercells. Initial supercell storms capable of all hazards (including very large hail and strong tornadoes) are expected. During the evening, convection may grow upscale into a squall line as storms near the Mississippi River, with an accompanying increase in damaging wind potential.

Day 5/Saturday - Ohio Valley/Great Lakes vicinity

A severe risk will likely continue into Saturday as the upper trough continues to strengthen and shift east from the Plains to the Great Lakes/Midwest. Strong deep-layer flow parallel to an eastward-advancing cold front will overspread a moist and at least weakly unstable downstream airmass through evening. This will favor a line of convection with damaging wind potential.

Days 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday

The surface cold front will continue east on Sunday, moving offshore the Atlantic and Gulf coasts during the afternoon. Severe potential appears limited by weak instability and mainly anafrontal precipitation across the Southeast to Eastern U.S. on Sunday. Surface high pressure and a dearth of boundary layer moisture in the wake of the cold front will preclude thunderstorm activity on Monday. By the end of the period, medium range guidance depicts another upper trough moving into the western U.S. and Gulf return flow will advect moisture back into the southern Plains. However, severe thunderstorm potential appears low at this time.

..Leitman.. 04/14/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Tuesday, April 14

TORNADO: 10%

HAIL: 30%

WIND: 30%

Wednesday, April 15

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Thursday, April 16

ANY SEVERE: 5%

Friday, April 17

ANY SEVERE: 30%

Saturday, April 18

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Sunday, April 19

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Monday, April 20

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Tuesday, April 21

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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