Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, January 7
Outlook Summary
A few marginally severe storms may occur late tonight into Thursday morning mainly from northwest Texas into western Oklahoma.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 071927
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Wed Jan 07 2026
Valid 072000Z - 081200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA
### SUMMARY
A few marginally severe storms may occur late tonight into Thursday morning mainly from northwest Texas into western Oklahoma.
Discussion
Little change from the previous outlook thinking, as instability and lift are expected to develop late tonight toward the end of the period.
A shortwave trough is currently over northern Baja CA, and this will move quickly eastward tonight, arriving into western TX by Thursday morning. Persistent southerly low-level flow will eventually bring 60s F dewpoints into northern TX and OK, ahead of a developing cold front, with ascent increasing early Thursday morning after about 09Z.
Isolated elevated thunderstorms may develop ahead of the cold front into part of OK into far southern KS after 09Z, though this will depend on boundary layer moisture quality. Conditionally, a storm or two may produce hail as effective shear will be supportive.
..Jewell.. 01/07/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026/
Southwest TX into Central OK
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough immediately west of Baja California while a progressive flow regime prevails across the northern half of the Lower 48. The aforementioned upper disturbance is forecast to quickly move east across the Sonoran and Chihuahuan deserts and into west/northwest TX by early Thursday morning.
A reservoir of partially modified Gulf moisture (60s deg F surface dewpoints) resides over the coastal plain of TX this morning. As the upper trough approaches the southern Great Plains tonight, strengthening low-level flow will advect this moisture northwestward into parts of northwest TX into central OK during the 08-12 UTC period. Although the primary cyclone will remain near the CO-NM-OK-KS-TX border region while deepening considerably, the attendant warm front will serve as the main low-level feature of interest. Warm advection/isentropic lift will favor isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms developing late tonight over west into northwest TX and eventually into central OK. Model-based soundings imply elevated parcels and MUCAPE ranging from 500-1000 J/kg amidst strong deep-layer shear. An isolated risk for large hail may accompany the stronger storms along with the possibility of localized severe gusts.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Thursday, January 8
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday from Oklahoma into parts of the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 071723
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday from Oklahoma into parts of the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley.
Southern Plains into the Lower/Mid MS Valley
Within a belt of broad/enhanced midlevel southwesterly flow, a negative-tilt shortwave trough and accompanying surface low will track northeastward from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes through the period.
Strongly forced thunderstorms will be ongoing/spreading east-northeastward across OK at the start of the period. While poor midlevel lapse rates and only partially modified Gulf moisture will limit buoyancy for these storms, 50-60 kt of effective shear will support a few organized clusters/line segments and perhaps transient supercell structures. Isolated large hail will be the primary concern, though locally damaging gusts and a brief tornado will be possible with any surface-based storms that can evolve.
This activity will spread/develop northeastward into the Ozarks and eventually the Lower OH Valley vicinity through the afternoon/evening, in tandem with the midlevel trough and surface low. Here, boundary-layer moisture and related buoyancy will become more limited with northward extent, though strengthening deep-layer flow/shear (to include a 50-kt low-level jet) will continue to support a risk of severe storms capable of damaging winds and possibly a brief tornado. Multiple rounds of storms will be possible through this corridor into the overnight hours ahead of an approaching front. Farther southeast, recent high-resolution guidance depicts a band of storms developing within broad/moist confluent low-level flow over the Lower MS Valley late in the period. While these storms will be on the eastern edge of the warm sector, strong low/deep-layer shear will yield a conditional severe risk.
Arizona
Thunderstorm potential is expected to increase through the day across parts of AZ, as a midlevel shortwave trough moves east-southeastward across the region. Gusty winds and/or small hail could occur with the strongest convection, though buoyancy is currently expected to remain too meager for an organized severe threat.
..Weinman.. 01/07/2026
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Friday, January 9
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday from the lower Mississippi Valley into parts of the Mid-South and Southeast.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 071913
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 PM CST Wed Jan 07 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday from the lower Mississippi Valley into parts of the Mid-South and Southeast.
Lower MS Valley into parts of the Southeast and TN/OH Valleys
In the wake of a negative-tilt shortwave trough and related surface low departing the Great Lakes region, a front will extend from the surface low southwestward along the lower/middle OH Valley into the Arklatex through the first half of the period. During this time, broad low-level warm advection amid a relatively moist air mass ahead of the front will support training thunderstorms beneath a belt of strong, front-parallel midlevel southwesterly flow. Despite poor deep-layer lapse rates and limited buoyancy, around 50 kt of effective shear may promote a couple strong to severe storms capable of damaging winds, isolated severe hail, and possibly a brief tornado into the afternoon hours.
In the 21-03Z time frame, midlevel height falls accompanying a broad upstream trough will impinge on the frontal zone over the Mid-South vicinity. In response, a frontal wave will evolve into a surface low while tracking east-northeastward across the TN Valley during the overnight hours. Strengthening low-level warm-advection amid a plume of moist/uncapped air (middle/upper 60s dewpoints) will yield a quick uptick in thunderstorm coverage across the lower MS and TN Valleys. Around 50-60 kt of effective shear and enlarging low-level hodographs ahead of the low will conditionally favor a mix of organized clusters and semi-discrete supercell structures – posing a risk of damaging winds and possibly a couple tornadoes. However, weak buoyancy and the potential for many storm interactions increase the overall conditionality of the tornado risk.
..Weinman.. 01/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Saturday, January 10
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, January 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, January 11 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, January 12 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, January 13 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, January 14 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070915 SPC AC 070915
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Saturday
Some severe potential remains evident from parts of the Southeast into the Carolinas, Mid Atlantic, and possibly Ohio Valley on D4/Saturday, but details remain uncertain.
Guidance generally depicts continued amplification of a deep and progressive shortwave trough on Saturday across the eastern CONUS. A deepening surface low is forecast to move from the Ohio Valley toward the Lower Great Lakes, as a trailing cold front sweeps through much of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic. Strongly sheared convection with some severe potential may be ongoing Saturday morning along/ahead of the cold front, from parts of MS/AL into the southern Appalachians. Strong deep-layer flow/shear will eventually overspread parts of the Ohio Valley, Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. However, longevity and magnitude of the severe threat in these regions is uncertain, as instability weakens with northeastward extent, and stronger ascent becomes increasingly displaced north of the warm sector with time.
D5/Sunday - D8/Wednesday
The cold front is forecast to move through coastal NC and the FL Peninsula on Sunday, but weak ascent and buoyancy are expected to limit organized storm potential. Dry and stable conditions in the wake of this cold frontal passage are expected to minimize severe-storm potential across the CONUS into early next week.
..Dean.. 01/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, January 11
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, January 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, January 11 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, January 12 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, January 13 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, January 14 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070915 SPC AC 070915
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Saturday
Some severe potential remains evident from parts of the Southeast into the Carolinas, Mid Atlantic, and possibly Ohio Valley on D4/Saturday, but details remain uncertain.
Guidance generally depicts continued amplification of a deep and progressive shortwave trough on Saturday across the eastern CONUS. A deepening surface low is forecast to move from the Ohio Valley toward the Lower Great Lakes, as a trailing cold front sweeps through much of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic. Strongly sheared convection with some severe potential may be ongoing Saturday morning along/ahead of the cold front, from parts of MS/AL into the southern Appalachians. Strong deep-layer flow/shear will eventually overspread parts of the Ohio Valley, Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. However, longevity and magnitude of the severe threat in these regions is uncertain, as instability weakens with northeastward extent, and stronger ascent becomes increasingly displaced north of the warm sector with time.
D5/Sunday - D8/Wednesday
The cold front is forecast to move through coastal NC and the FL Peninsula on Sunday, but weak ascent and buoyancy are expected to limit organized storm potential. Dry and stable conditions in the wake of this cold frontal passage are expected to minimize severe-storm potential across the CONUS into early next week.
..Dean.. 01/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, January 12
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, January 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, January 11 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, January 12 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, January 13 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, January 14 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070915 SPC AC 070915
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Saturday
Some severe potential remains evident from parts of the Southeast into the Carolinas, Mid Atlantic, and possibly Ohio Valley on D4/Saturday, but details remain uncertain.
Guidance generally depicts continued amplification of a deep and progressive shortwave trough on Saturday across the eastern CONUS. A deepening surface low is forecast to move from the Ohio Valley toward the Lower Great Lakes, as a trailing cold front sweeps through much of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic. Strongly sheared convection with some severe potential may be ongoing Saturday morning along/ahead of the cold front, from parts of MS/AL into the southern Appalachians. Strong deep-layer flow/shear will eventually overspread parts of the Ohio Valley, Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. However, longevity and magnitude of the severe threat in these regions is uncertain, as instability weakens with northeastward extent, and stronger ascent becomes increasingly displaced north of the warm sector with time.
D5/Sunday - D8/Wednesday
The cold front is forecast to move through coastal NC and the FL Peninsula on Sunday, but weak ascent and buoyancy are expected to limit organized storm potential. Dry and stable conditions in the wake of this cold frontal passage are expected to minimize severe-storm potential across the CONUS into early next week.
..Dean.. 01/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, January 13
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, January 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, January 11 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, January 12 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, January 13 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, January 14 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070915 SPC AC 070915
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Saturday
Some severe potential remains evident from parts of the Southeast into the Carolinas, Mid Atlantic, and possibly Ohio Valley on D4/Saturday, but details remain uncertain.
Guidance generally depicts continued amplification of a deep and progressive shortwave trough on Saturday across the eastern CONUS. A deepening surface low is forecast to move from the Ohio Valley toward the Lower Great Lakes, as a trailing cold front sweeps through much of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic. Strongly sheared convection with some severe potential may be ongoing Saturday morning along/ahead of the cold front, from parts of MS/AL into the southern Appalachians. Strong deep-layer flow/shear will eventually overspread parts of the Ohio Valley, Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. However, longevity and magnitude of the severe threat in these regions is uncertain, as instability weakens with northeastward extent, and stronger ascent becomes increasingly displaced north of the warm sector with time.
D5/Sunday - D8/Wednesday
The cold front is forecast to move through coastal NC and the FL Peninsula on Sunday, but weak ascent and buoyancy are expected to limit organized storm potential. Dry and stable conditions in the wake of this cold frontal passage are expected to minimize severe-storm potential across the CONUS into early next week.
..Dean.. 01/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, January 14
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, January 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, January 11 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, January 12 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, January 13 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, January 14 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070915 SPC AC 070915
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Saturday
Some severe potential remains evident from parts of the Southeast into the Carolinas, Mid Atlantic, and possibly Ohio Valley on D4/Saturday, but details remain uncertain.
Guidance generally depicts continued amplification of a deep and progressive shortwave trough on Saturday across the eastern CONUS. A deepening surface low is forecast to move from the Ohio Valley toward the Lower Great Lakes, as a trailing cold front sweeps through much of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic. Strongly sheared convection with some severe potential may be ongoing Saturday morning along/ahead of the cold front, from parts of MS/AL into the southern Appalachians. Strong deep-layer flow/shear will eventually overspread parts of the Ohio Valley, Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. However, longevity and magnitude of the severe threat in these regions is uncertain, as instability weakens with northeastward extent, and stronger ascent becomes increasingly displaced north of the warm sector with time.
D5/Sunday - D8/Wednesday
The cold front is forecast to move through coastal NC and the FL Peninsula on Sunday, but weak ascent and buoyancy are expected to limit organized storm potential. Dry and stable conditions in the wake of this cold frontal passage are expected to minimize severe-storm potential across the CONUS into early next week.
..Dean.. 01/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, January 7
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Thursday, January 8
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Friday, January 9
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Saturday, January 10
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, January 11
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, January 12
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, January 13
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, January 14
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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