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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Monday, July 6

Outlook Summary

Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts appear possible across the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota Monday afternoon and evening. More isolated occurrences of damaging wind and large hail are possible from the northern Rockies into northern High Plains and the lower Mississippi Valley. Isolated to widely scattered damaging wind gusts will be possible with the strongest storms in the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 060536

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA

### SUMMARY

Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts appear possible across the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota Monday afternoon and evening. More isolated occurrences of damaging wind and large hail are possible from the northern Rockies into northern High Plains and the lower Mississippi Valley. Isolated to widely scattered damaging wind gusts will be possible with the strongest storms in the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas.

Synopsis

A vigorous short-wave trough and associated 50-60 kt mid-level jet streak will progress from southern Saskatchewan into northwest Ontario with the southern fringe of modest height falls and stronger mid-level flow situated along the international border. Elsewhere, a vorticity maximum will move through AR within the base of a mid-level trough over the lower MS Valley, while a separate short-wave trough advances through OR into the northern Rockies.

At the surface, a cold front associated with the Canadian disturbance will move south into the Dakotas and upper MS Valley, while a backdoor-type cold front pushes south through parts of the Mid-Atlantic. A lee trough will extend south from the front through central VA into the Carolinas with some model signal for surface low development along the trough over central VA.

### Upper Mississippi Valley into north-central Nebraska

Boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s will coincide with the northeast extension of an EML plume to yield moderate to strong instability Monday afternoon ahead of the cold front with MLCAPE of 2500-3500+ J/kg. The modest height falls aloft will combine with frontal convergence to yield widely scattered thunderstorms by mid afternoon in the Red River Valley. Subsequent storm development is possible along the front as far south as northwest or north-central NE by late afternoon or early evening.

The strongest deep-layer shear of 30-40 kt is forecast across the Red River Valley with a vector orientation that is largely perpendicular to the surface front. As such, supercells appear possible initially with the primary hazard being large hail potentially in excess of two inches. Effective SRH of generally less than 100-150 m2/s2 is forecast into late afternoon, during the period of more discrete storm modes, which may tend to limit a more robust tornado threat. 00Z CAM guidance is in relatively good agreement in depicting the upscale growth of storms into a linear system by evening over eastern SD and western MN with an associated risk for severe wind gusts.

Weaker vertical shear with southward extent from central SD into northern NE is expected to limit the potential for organized storm modes, though isolated occurrences of hail and severe wind gusts appear possible with the strongest storms.

### Northeast Idaho through southern Montana and northern Wyoming

The short-wave trough moving into the northern Rockies will be attended by a belt of 35-40 kt winds at 500 mb, which will enhance vertical shear across the region. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid to late afternoon from the Bitterroot to Big Horn Mountains amidst a steep lapse rate and at least modestly unstable environment. There is some model signal that an MCS could evolve over northeast WY Monday evening. Sufficient deep-layer shear will exist to support at least episodic supercell and bowing structures capable of large hail and damaging winds. The expected areal coverage of the severe weather threat currently precludes higher wind and hail probabilities.

### Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas

A hot and very moist boundary layer is forecast in the vicinity of the lee trough and surface low Monday afternoon with MLCAPE as high as 2000-3000 J/kg. Forcing for ascent will be weak, as will vertical shear. Nonetheless, convergence along the lee trough and backdoor front is expected to foster scattered thunderstorms by early to mid afternoon with the potential for upscale growth into loosely organized clusters by late afternoon into evening. The presence of steep low-level lapse rates will enhance downdraft potential with a risk for damaging wind gusts with the strongest storms.

An upgrade to a level 2/Slight Risk is possible in later outlooks if a preferred corridor of damaging wind potential becomes apparent in future model data.

### Lower Mississippi Valley

Forcing for ascent preceding the vorticity maximum mentioned in the synopsis is expected to focus scattered afternoon thunderstorms from AR into the Sabine and lower MS Valleys. Vertical shear will remain relatively weak; however, the presence of a moist and moderately to strongly unstable air mass (i.e., MLCAPE up to 2000-3000 J/kg) will support vigorous up/downdrafts capable of isolated occurrences of damaging winds and marginally severe hail.

..Mead/Moore.. 07/06/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, July 7

Outlook Summary

Strong thunderstorms, which may evolve into an organized cluster with increasing potential to produce severe wind gusts by late Tuesday evening, are possible across parts of central and eastern South Dakota into southwestern Minnesota. Other thunderstorm clusters may form to the east of the Blue Ridge Mountains and southwest of the Ark-La-Tex vicinity and pose a risk for damaging wind gusts late Tuesday afternoon or evening.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 060510

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA

### SUMMARY

Strong thunderstorms, which may evolve into an organized cluster with increasing potential to produce severe wind gusts by late Tuesday evening, are possible across parts of central and eastern South Dakota into southwestern Minnesota. Other thunderstorm clusters may form to the east of the Blue Ridge Mountains and southwest of the Ark-La-Tex vicinity and pose a risk for damaging wind gusts late Tuesday afternoon or evening.

Discussion

It still appears that the westerlies may become a bit less progressive across the higher latitudes of North America by Tuesday. As a mid/upper high evolves in the northwestern Canadian Arctic latitudes, a deep remnant lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone may only slowly migrate east-northeastward across Hudson Bay, toward the northern Quebec shores, while a notable upstream trough slowly pivots inland of the British Columbia coast.

In advance of the trailing perturbation, low-amplitude troughing, comprised of at least a couple smaller-scale perturbations within the modest zonal westerlies across the northern tier of the U.S., is forecast to progress east of the northern Rockies. As it does, models suggest that it will gradually flatten initial mid-level ridging across the middle Missouri Valley Tuesday through Tuesday night.

Otherwise, mid-level ridging is forecast to remain prominent along an axis from the subtropical eastern Pacific through the central and southern Great Plains, while also developing northwestward from the subtropical western Atlantic into parts of the southeast. It appears that weak mid-level troughing will dig across the southern New England and northern Mid Atlantic coast, leaving a remnant shear axis between the ridging, roughly from the Ohio Valley into southeastern Great Plains, with perhaps a well-defined, quasi-stationary circulation along it across the Mid South vicinity.

Parts of the middle Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest

Beneath steep mid-level lapse rates, associated with a plume of elevated mixed-layer air slowly becoming suppressed southward across the middle Missouri Valley, it still appears that stronger boundary-layer heating may contribute to moderate to strong destabilization by late Tuesday afternoon. Guidance suggests that this will focus in a corridor along/south of a stalling surface cold front trailing the Hudson Bay cyclone, along which surface dew points increasing to near 70F may contribute to CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg.

Although timing of stronger thunderstorm initiation remains uncertain, this probably will be aided by forcing for ascent associated with the approaching mid-level perturbations. Once this occurs, deep-layer shear appears likely to become at least marginally supportive of supercell structures. Particularly by late Tuesday evening, near the nose of a nocturnally strengthening boundary-layer jet across central into eastern South Dakota, the evolution of an upscale growing and organizing cluster appears possible, accompanied by increasing potential to produce strong to severe wind gusts as it propagates eastward. ### Mid Atlantic

Both HREF and REFS calibrated thunderstorm guidance are similar with highest probabilities for thunderstorms becoming concentrated along and east of the Blue Ridge by late afternoon. Although embedded within deep-layer westerly mean flow on the order of 20 kt or less, thermodynamic profiles with high precipitable water content and modest CAPE may support locally strong downbursts in stronger storms.

There does appear at least some potential for weak low-level warm advection to provide support for an upscale growing cluster propagating southeastward toward coastal areas by Tuesday evening, with continuing risk for potentially damaging winds along a consolidating gust front.

Northeast Texas into northern Louisiana

Both HREF and REFS calibrated thunderstorm guidance currently focus higher thunderstorm probabilities by late Tuesday afternoon across the region, near the southwestern periphery of the broad, weak mid-level cyclonic circulation. Aided by inflow of moderate potential instability, within a corridor of stronger daytime heating, some clustering of storms appears possible, accompanied by potential for a few strong downbursts.

..Kerr.. 07/06/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, July 8

Outlook Summary

Clusters of strong thunderstorms with potential to produce severe hail and wind may evolve across parts of the Upper Midwest into central Great Plains Wednesday through Wednesday night.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 060731

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO UPPER MIDWEST

### SUMMARY

Clusters of strong thunderstorms with potential to produce severe hail and wind may evolve across parts of the Upper Midwest into central Great Plains Wednesday through Wednesday night.

Discussion

It appears that notable remnant mid-level troughing will begin to dig southeast of the Hudson Bay vicinity Wednesday through Wednesday night, while an upstream short wave trough pivots northeast then north of the Canadian Rockies toward the Northwest Territories. Within the westerlies to the south of this regime, subtle mid-level ridging may overspread the northern Rockies, with similar amplitude downstream troughing digging across the northern Great Plains, Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region.

Beneath this regime, a weak cold front, perhaps reinforced by convective outflow in some locations, is forecast to overspread much of the remainder of the Upper Midwest/adjacent Great Lakes and middle Missouri Valley vicinity by late Wednesday night. This may be preceded across parts of the central Great Plains by conglomerate convective outflow emanating from considerable thunderstorm development spreading off the Laramie Range/Front Range vicinity, within steering flow trending northwesterly through the period.

Great Plains/Upper Midwest

Steeper mid-level lapse rates associated with a remnant plume of elevated mixed-layer air may become increasingly confined to the higher plains during this period. However, seasonably high moisture content along/ahead of the southward advancing cold front may still become supportive of mixed-layer CAPE of 1500-2000+ J/kg with daytime heating.

It remains uncertain whether an evolving cluster of storms, and/or a possible significant MCV emerging from it, will support continuing or renewed organized thunderstorm development posing a risk for severe wind gusts into and through the Upper Midwest during the day Wednesday. However, it is possible that destabilization in its wake could become sufficient to support strong thunderstorm development posing a risk for severe hail and wind, ahead of the southward advancing cold front later Wednesday into Wednesday night.

Otherwise, guidance suggests considerable thunderstorm activity, initiating off the higher terrain of southeastern Wyoming through central Colorado by late Wednesday, may gradually intensify and consolidate within a more unstable environment near a broad/weak surface cyclone developing across the high plains. Aided by a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet, there appears at least potential for this activity to organize with potential to swaths of strong to severe surface gusts Wednesday evening, after initially posing a risk for severe hail and localized downbursts.

..Kerr.. 07/06/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Thursday, July 9

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Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060900 SPC AC 060900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range model output continues to indicate the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid/upper high across the lower Colorado Valley and Plateau late this week into next weekend, which may continue expanding and encompassing a significant portion of the interior U.S. by early next week. How far north and northeast this builds remains unclear; however, a plume of very warm elevated mixed layer air advecting on strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of this anticyclonic regime will contribute to an environment conditionally conducive to organized severe thunderstorm development.

It appears that this could focus anywhere from the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity through the Great Lakes into the Northeast. By early next week (the Day 8-9 time frame), in particular, at least some output suggests that a vigorous short wave trough rounding the ridge may be accompanied by strong cyclogenesis, which could promote widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of New England into northern Mid Atlantic. Given the uncertainties associated with the extended time frame and model spread/discrepancies, severe weather probabilities remain less than 15 percent for this period, but it is possible that this could change sometime in later outlook updates for this period.

..Kerr.. 07/06/2026

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Outlook for Friday, July 10

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ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060900 SPC AC 060900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range model output continues to indicate the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid/upper high across the lower Colorado Valley and Plateau late this week into next weekend, which may continue expanding and encompassing a significant portion of the interior U.S. by early next week. How far north and northeast this builds remains unclear; however, a plume of very warm elevated mixed layer air advecting on strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of this anticyclonic regime will contribute to an environment conditionally conducive to organized severe thunderstorm development.

It appears that this could focus anywhere from the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity through the Great Lakes into the Northeast. By early next week (the Day 8-9 time frame), in particular, at least some output suggests that a vigorous short wave trough rounding the ridge may be accompanied by strong cyclogenesis, which could promote widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of New England into northern Mid Atlantic. Given the uncertainties associated with the extended time frame and model spread/discrepancies, severe weather probabilities remain less than 15 percent for this period, but it is possible that this could change sometime in later outlook updates for this period.

..Kerr.. 07/06/2026

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Outlook for Saturday, July 11

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Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060900 SPC AC 060900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range model output continues to indicate the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid/upper high across the lower Colorado Valley and Plateau late this week into next weekend, which may continue expanding and encompassing a significant portion of the interior U.S. by early next week. How far north and northeast this builds remains unclear; however, a plume of very warm elevated mixed layer air advecting on strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of this anticyclonic regime will contribute to an environment conditionally conducive to organized severe thunderstorm development.

It appears that this could focus anywhere from the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity through the Great Lakes into the Northeast. By early next week (the Day 8-9 time frame), in particular, at least some output suggests that a vigorous short wave trough rounding the ridge may be accompanied by strong cyclogenesis, which could promote widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of New England into northern Mid Atlantic. Given the uncertainties associated with the extended time frame and model spread/discrepancies, severe weather probabilities remain less than 15 percent for this period, but it is possible that this could change sometime in later outlook updates for this period.

..Kerr.. 07/06/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, July 12

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Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060900 SPC AC 060900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range model output continues to indicate the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid/upper high across the lower Colorado Valley and Plateau late this week into next weekend, which may continue expanding and encompassing a significant portion of the interior U.S. by early next week. How far north and northeast this builds remains unclear; however, a plume of very warm elevated mixed layer air advecting on strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of this anticyclonic regime will contribute to an environment conditionally conducive to organized severe thunderstorm development.

It appears that this could focus anywhere from the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity through the Great Lakes into the Northeast. By early next week (the Day 8-9 time frame), in particular, at least some output suggests that a vigorous short wave trough rounding the ridge may be accompanied by strong cyclogenesis, which could promote widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of New England into northern Mid Atlantic. Given the uncertainties associated with the extended time frame and model spread/discrepancies, severe weather probabilities remain less than 15 percent for this period, but it is possible that this could change sometime in later outlook updates for this period.

..Kerr.. 07/06/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, July 13

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060900 SPC AC 060900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range model output continues to indicate the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid/upper high across the lower Colorado Valley and Plateau late this week into next weekend, which may continue expanding and encompassing a significant portion of the interior U.S. by early next week. How far north and northeast this builds remains unclear; however, a plume of very warm elevated mixed layer air advecting on strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of this anticyclonic regime will contribute to an environment conditionally conducive to organized severe thunderstorm development.

It appears that this could focus anywhere from the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity through the Great Lakes into the Northeast. By early next week (the Day 8-9 time frame), in particular, at least some output suggests that a vigorous short wave trough rounding the ridge may be accompanied by strong cyclogenesis, which could promote widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of New England into northern Mid Atlantic. Given the uncertainties associated with the extended time frame and model spread/discrepancies, severe weather probabilities remain less than 15 percent for this period, but it is possible that this could change sometime in later outlook updates for this period.

..Kerr.. 07/06/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Monday, July 6

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Tuesday, July 7

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Wednesday, July 8

ANY SEVERE: 5%

Thursday, July 9

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, July 10

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Saturday, July 11

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Sunday, July 12

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Monday, July 13

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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