Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, September 2
Outlook Summary
Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon through tonight. Damaging winds are the main threat, though some large hail and a few tornadoes may also occur. Scattered severe gusts and isolated large hail appear possible over the northern Rockies/High Plains this afternoon and evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 45%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 021628
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Wed Sep 02 2026
Valid 021630Z - 031200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN NEW YORK
### THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MONTANA
### SUMMARY
Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon through tonight. Damaging winds are the main threat, though some large hail and a few tornadoes may also occur. Scattered severe gusts and isolated large hail appear possible over the northern Rockies/High Plains this afternoon and evening.
Lower Michigan into the Mid-Atlantic
An ongoing cluster across south-central PA has a well established cold pool and a history of producing damaging winds across western/central PA. This convection is expected to continue moving quickly southeastward through the afternoon across parts of MD/DC/northern VA and vicinity. There is still some uncertainty on whether this cluster will be able to maintain intensity with southward extent into the Mid-Atlantic, as it becomes increasingly removed from the stronger forcing aloft/mid-level flow over the Great Lakes into NY. Still, a differential heating zone remains apparent along/near the Chesapeake Bay per recent visible satellite imagery and surface observations. The cluster should tend to remain on the warm side of this boundary, with steepening low-level lapse rates developing as daytime heating continues to destabilize the downstream airmass. Scattered damaging winds will likely remain a threat with these thunderstorms as they track across the southern Mid-Atlantic before eventually weakening.
In the wake of this late morning/early afternoon activity, it appears likely that robust destabilization will occur across parts of lower MI into western NY. 12Z observed soundings from APX/DTX/BUF showed moderate to very strong MUCAPE and modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates with an EML. This favorable airmass will spread eastward through the day in tandem with a mid-level shortwave trough and 50-60 kt mid-level jet also advancing eastward over the Great Lakes and ON. Even with some cloud cover present, moderate to strong instability will likely be in place across western NY by late afternoon, to the west of a differential heating zone/front. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of a cold front from parts of southeast Lower MI to the lower Great Lakes, with 50+ kt of deep-layer shear supporting organized updrafts. A mix of supercells and multicells will likely pose a threat for both severe hail and scattered to numerous damaging winds. Sufficient low-level shear should also be present to support a few tornadoes, with some chance for a strong tornado this evening if a supercell mode can be maintained across western NY and vicinity. Confidence has increased in a corridor of greater severe/damaging wind potential late this afternoon/evening across parts of western NY, where an Enhanced Risk has been introduced.
Northern Rockies/High Plains
High-based thunderstorms have already developed over the higher terrain of central ID this morning. Enhanced winds aloft associated with a northeastward-ejecting mid-level shortwave trough and steep low-level lapse rates will support a risk for scattered severe/damaging winds as this activity spreads northeastward across MT this afternoon and evening. Occasional 75+ mph gusts may occur, even though instability should remain weak. Isolated thunderstorms may also develop later this evening/tonight in a low-level warm advection regime across eastern MT into western ND, with some hail threat.
Eastern Utah into the Central Rockies/High Plains
Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage this afternoon over eastern UT into the higher terrain of northern/western CO and southern WY. This activity will spread northeastward into eastern WY/western NE where a very deep/well-mixed boundary layer should support locally severe gusts.
..Gleason/Moore.. 09/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Thursday, September 3
Outlook Summary
Severe storms, accompanied by predominantly severe wind gusts and hail (including 75+ mph gusts and hailstones greater than two inches), are possible from the North Dakota-Minnesota Red River Valley into the upper Midwest. At least widely scattered severe storms capable of mainly damaging wind gusts are also possible from the upper Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic coastline.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 021718
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Wed Sep 02 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH DAKOTA-MINNESOTA RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST…AND IN PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO MID-ATLANTIC COAST
### SUMMARY
Severe storms, accompanied by predominantly severe wind gusts and hail (including 75+ mph gusts and hailstones greater than two inches), are possible from the North Dakota-Minnesota Red River Valley into the upper Midwest. At least widely scattered severe storms capable of mainly damaging wind gusts are also possible from the upper Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic coastline.
Synopsis
A high-latitude omega block will persist through the forecast period, featuring upper lows along the Pacific Northwest coast and over QC, which bracket a mid-level ridge centered along the MS Valley. Several smaller-scale perturbations are expected to move through the broader-scale flow regime from the northern Plains and the upper MS Valley through the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic, aiding in thunderstorm development in those areas. At the surface, an area of low pressure is forecast to develop through the Dakotas into MN, while a preceding warm front lifts north through the upper MS Valley and upper Midwest. The boundary is expected to extend southeast through the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic, where its location may be modified from convective outflow stemming from thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
### Northern Plains into the upper Great Lakes
A plume of steep mid-level lapse rates associated with an elevated-mixed layer (EML) will reside atop a moist boundary layer in the vicinity of the surface low and warm front, yielding a strongly unstable air mass by afternoon with MLCAPE increasing to 3000-4000+ J/kg. Amidst a backdrop of general height rises, the progression of weak disturbances through the building ridge will promote periods of forcing for ascent. The first of these may occur Thursday morning when elevated thunderstorms appear possible from portions of the mid-MO Valley into upper Midwest. Given the presence of the EML and sufficient cloud-bearing shear, isolated occurrences of large hail may accompany the strongest storms as they spread east into the upper Great Lakes.
In the wake of the early-day storms, residual capping associated with the building ridge coupled with the subtle forcing for ascent results in considerable model variability in the location of subsequent, surface-based storm development Thursday afternoon into night. Nonetheless, the degree of instability and up to 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear will conditionally support higher-order storm modes including supercells and bowing structures, both of which are depicted by the suite of various 12Z CAMs. Hail in excess of two inches, severe wind gusts greater than 75 mph, and a couple of tornadoes appear possible with the most intense storms.
The 15% hail and accompanying CIG1 contours have been expanded into the ND-MN Red River Valley and in parts of WI to account for the large hail potential. Otherwise, the forecast will remain largely unchanged due to the spatial uncertainty in surface-based storm development. Once finer-scale details become more clear, an upgrade to a level 3/Enhanced Risk may become necessary, primarily for severe winds associated with a cold-pool-driven MCS.
### Upper Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic Coast
Similar to this morning, clusters of thunderstorms capable of isolated occurrences of damaging wind may be ongoing at 12Z Thursday over portions of the lower Great Lakes and upper OH Valley regions. A subset of the morning storms may intensify by afternoon over the Delmarva/southern Mid-Atlantic with additional storms forming during the peak of the diurnal heating cycle in the vicinity of the surface front and/or residual outflow boundaries over the upper OH Valley.
Despite weakening mid-level lapse rates with eastward extent, daytime heating combined with dewpoints largely in the low/mid 70s will contribute to moderate to strong instability by afternoon along and south of the effective surface front with MLCAPE approaching 2500-3500 J/kg. The frontal zone will coincide with a belt of 40-45 kt west-northwest mid-level flow, yielding sufficient vertical shear for supercells and organized line segments and/or bowing structures. The primary hazard will be damaging wind gusts, though isolated occurrences of large hail are possible with any supercells that may evolve.
A slight northward shift in the Marginal and Slight Risk probabilities has been made to account for stronger instability and an associated severe risk evident in various 12z models.
..Mead.. 09/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Friday, September 4
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe thunderstorms, mainly producing damaging gusts, are expected across portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic on Friday. More isolated severe storms (with wind and hail) may occur over parts of the Midwest.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 020728
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Wed Sep 02 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe thunderstorms, mainly producing damaging gusts, are expected across portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic on Friday. More isolated severe storms (with wind and hail) may occur over parts of the Midwest.
Synopsis
Upper ridging will continue over the central and eastern U.S., with upper troughs meandering over the Interior West and the Northeast. A broad warm frontal boundary will be draped from parts of the Midwest to the Atlantic coastline, overspread by deep-layer northwesterly flow. Multiple embedded impulses will traverse this northwest flow regime, promoting the development of thunderstorm clusters in the process.
Southern portions of the Mid-Atlantic
The best chance for scattered severe thunderstorms will be across portions of southern WV to the NC shoreline on Friday. By afternoon, boundary-layer destabilization along a differential heating zone, left behind by storms in preceding days, will promote renewed thunderstorm development. Despite meager mid-level lapse rates, 70+ F surface dewpoints and warm temperatures exceeding 90 F will yield widespread 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Given stronger northwesterly flow aloft, 30+ kts of effective bulk (speed) shear will support multicells and supercells capable of damaging gusts.
Portions of the Midwest and OH Valley
Rich low-level moisture along the warm front (i.e. 70s F dewpoints), beneath 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, will support 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE and minimal convective inhibition. While upper support will be quite subtle at best, strong heating and minimal capping may support isolated thunderstorm development along the front. Only Marginal Risk probabilities were introduced given the expected sparse and brief nature of the severe threat. However, any storms that mature and become sustained will be capable of producing severe wind or hail.
..Squitieri.. 09/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Saturday, September 5
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, September 5 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Sunday, September 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, September 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, September 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, September 9 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020844 SPC AC 020844
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Wed Sep 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper ridging will prevail over much of the central and eastern CONUS into the middle of next week. The upper trough meandering over the Interior West will eventually eject into the northern Plains and pivot around the upper ridge while another upper trough (currently along the East Coast) slowly drifts out to sea. As this occurs, surface high pressure and cooler air will overspread the northeastern quadrant of the U.S.
In the extended period, the best chance for some severe storms will be in and around the Carolinas on Day 4/Saturday. A diffuse differential heating zone will continue to drift south while being reinforced from storms on previous days. By Saturday afternoon, heating along this boundary, amid a very moist environment, will promote damaging gust potential, hence the introduction of 15 percent severe probabilities.
There is also some hint at an MCS propagating southward across eastern ND into northern and central MN along a moist and unstable surface warm front on Saturday as well. While ML/AI calibrated guidance consensus is beginning to elevate severe probabilities in this area, upper support for this feature is quite weak at best, limiting confidence for the introduction of severe probabilities this outlook.
Lastly, the ejection of an upper trough into the northern Plains early next week (i.e. next Monday or Tuesday) will support surface lee troughing and the northward advection of rich low-level moisture beneath cooler temperatures and stronger flow aloft. At least an isolated severe thunderstorm risk may materialize from this scenario, but details on timing and placement of key features are too nebulous for the confident introduction of severe probabilities this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 09/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, September 6
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, September 5 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Sunday, September 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, September 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, September 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, September 9 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020844 SPC AC 020844
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Wed Sep 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper ridging will prevail over much of the central and eastern CONUS into the middle of next week. The upper trough meandering over the Interior West will eventually eject into the northern Plains and pivot around the upper ridge while another upper trough (currently along the East Coast) slowly drifts out to sea. As this occurs, surface high pressure and cooler air will overspread the northeastern quadrant of the U.S.
In the extended period, the best chance for some severe storms will be in and around the Carolinas on Day 4/Saturday. A diffuse differential heating zone will continue to drift south while being reinforced from storms on previous days. By Saturday afternoon, heating along this boundary, amid a very moist environment, will promote damaging gust potential, hence the introduction of 15 percent severe probabilities.
There is also some hint at an MCS propagating southward across eastern ND into northern and central MN along a moist and unstable surface warm front on Saturday as well. While ML/AI calibrated guidance consensus is beginning to elevate severe probabilities in this area, upper support for this feature is quite weak at best, limiting confidence for the introduction of severe probabilities this outlook.
Lastly, the ejection of an upper trough into the northern Plains early next week (i.e. next Monday or Tuesday) will support surface lee troughing and the northward advection of rich low-level moisture beneath cooler temperatures and stronger flow aloft. At least an isolated severe thunderstorm risk may materialize from this scenario, but details on timing and placement of key features are too nebulous for the confident introduction of severe probabilities this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 09/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, September 7
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, September 5 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Sunday, September 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, September 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, September 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, September 9 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020844 SPC AC 020844
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Wed Sep 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper ridging will prevail over much of the central and eastern CONUS into the middle of next week. The upper trough meandering over the Interior West will eventually eject into the northern Plains and pivot around the upper ridge while another upper trough (currently along the East Coast) slowly drifts out to sea. As this occurs, surface high pressure and cooler air will overspread the northeastern quadrant of the U.S.
In the extended period, the best chance for some severe storms will be in and around the Carolinas on Day 4/Saturday. A diffuse differential heating zone will continue to drift south while being reinforced from storms on previous days. By Saturday afternoon, heating along this boundary, amid a very moist environment, will promote damaging gust potential, hence the introduction of 15 percent severe probabilities.
There is also some hint at an MCS propagating southward across eastern ND into northern and central MN along a moist and unstable surface warm front on Saturday as well. While ML/AI calibrated guidance consensus is beginning to elevate severe probabilities in this area, upper support for this feature is quite weak at best, limiting confidence for the introduction of severe probabilities this outlook.
Lastly, the ejection of an upper trough into the northern Plains early next week (i.e. next Monday or Tuesday) will support surface lee troughing and the northward advection of rich low-level moisture beneath cooler temperatures and stronger flow aloft. At least an isolated severe thunderstorm risk may materialize from this scenario, but details on timing and placement of key features are too nebulous for the confident introduction of severe probabilities this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 09/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, September 8
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, September 5 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Sunday, September 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, September 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, September 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, September 9 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020844 SPC AC 020844
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Wed Sep 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper ridging will prevail over much of the central and eastern CONUS into the middle of next week. The upper trough meandering over the Interior West will eventually eject into the northern Plains and pivot around the upper ridge while another upper trough (currently along the East Coast) slowly drifts out to sea. As this occurs, surface high pressure and cooler air will overspread the northeastern quadrant of the U.S.
In the extended period, the best chance for some severe storms will be in and around the Carolinas on Day 4/Saturday. A diffuse differential heating zone will continue to drift south while being reinforced from storms on previous days. By Saturday afternoon, heating along this boundary, amid a very moist environment, will promote damaging gust potential, hence the introduction of 15 percent severe probabilities.
There is also some hint at an MCS propagating southward across eastern ND into northern and central MN along a moist and unstable surface warm front on Saturday as well. While ML/AI calibrated guidance consensus is beginning to elevate severe probabilities in this area, upper support for this feature is quite weak at best, limiting confidence for the introduction of severe probabilities this outlook.
Lastly, the ejection of an upper trough into the northern Plains early next week (i.e. next Monday or Tuesday) will support surface lee troughing and the northward advection of rich low-level moisture beneath cooler temperatures and stronger flow aloft. At least an isolated severe thunderstorm risk may materialize from this scenario, but details on timing and placement of key features are too nebulous for the confident introduction of severe probabilities this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 09/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, September 9
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, September 5 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Sunday, September 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, September 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, September 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, September 9 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020844 SPC AC 020844
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Wed Sep 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper ridging will prevail over much of the central and eastern CONUS into the middle of next week. The upper trough meandering over the Interior West will eventually eject into the northern Plains and pivot around the upper ridge while another upper trough (currently along the East Coast) slowly drifts out to sea. As this occurs, surface high pressure and cooler air will overspread the northeastern quadrant of the U.S.
In the extended period, the best chance for some severe storms will be in and around the Carolinas on Day 4/Saturday. A diffuse differential heating zone will continue to drift south while being reinforced from storms on previous days. By Saturday afternoon, heating along this boundary, amid a very moist environment, will promote damaging gust potential, hence the introduction of 15 percent severe probabilities.
There is also some hint at an MCS propagating southward across eastern ND into northern and central MN along a moist and unstable surface warm front on Saturday as well. While ML/AI calibrated guidance consensus is beginning to elevate severe probabilities in this area, upper support for this feature is quite weak at best, limiting confidence for the introduction of severe probabilities this outlook.
Lastly, the ejection of an upper trough into the northern Plains early next week (i.e. next Monday or Tuesday) will support surface lee troughing and the northward advection of rich low-level moisture beneath cooler temperatures and stronger flow aloft. At least an isolated severe thunderstorm risk may materialize from this scenario, but details on timing and placement of key features are too nebulous for the confident introduction of severe probabilities this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 09/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, September 2
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 45%
- Thursday, September 3
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Friday, September 4
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Saturday, September 5
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Sunday, September 6
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, September 7
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, September 8
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, September 9
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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