Severe Weather Outlook
Hayley here - Do you want to see severe weather in your calendar?
* it's like an add-on for your digital calendar NOT a paper calendar
National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, July 1
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes today and tonight. Damaging wind gusts (some to 80 mph) are the main concern, in addition to isolated large to very large hail and a few tornadoes. Additional severe storms are possible across parts of the the central High Plains and Northeast.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 30%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 010600
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
### THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE NORTHEAST
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes today and tonight. Damaging wind gusts (some to 80 mph) are the main concern, in addition to isolated large to very large hail and a few tornadoes. Additional severe storms are possible across parts of the the central High Plains and Northeast.
Midwest and Upper Great Lakes
Within a belt of strong midlevel southwesterly flow extending from the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes, a convectively augmented midlevel impulse should be the focus for ongoing/morning strong-severe storms over parts of southern MN and vicinity. This activity will mainly pose a risk for damaging gusts and possibly large hail. These storms should continue developing/spreading east-northeastward into the Upper Midwest along a stationary boundary, where diurnal heating of a moist air mass and steep lapse rates will lead to strong surface-based buoyancy. This, combined with around 40 kt of effective shear, will favor a mix of supercells and organized clusters. Scattered damaging wind gusts, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes will all be possible. Thereafter, high-resolution guidance is in general agreement, depicting a second round of upstream thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening in the vicinity of southern MN – likely in response to a strengthening low-level jet and related isentropic lift. Similarly, these storms should spread east-northeastward through a strongly unstable air mass and 40-50 kt of effective shear (with increasing clockwise-curved hodographs). Swaths of damaging winds (some gusts near 80 mph possible), large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes will be possible.
Central High Plains
High-based thunderstorm development is expected along a north/south-oriented lee trough/dryline during the afternoon and evening. Despite modest deep-layer shear (around 25-30 kt), steep low/mid-level lapse rates will contribute to a strongly unstable air mass. A mix of loosely organized clusters and possibly some supercell structures will be capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail.
Northeast
Enhanced west-northwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the Northeast, where a warm/moist air mass will contribute to around 3000 J/kg MLCAPE. While nebulous mesoscale forcing for ascent casts uncertainty on overall convective coverage and evolution, the strong buoyancy and a veering wind profile (albeit modest deep-layer shear) will favor east-southeastward-spreading convection capable of damaging wind gusts and isolated hail during the afternoon and again during the evening/nighttime hours.
Southeast
Along the southern periphery of a midlevel anticyclone centered over the central Appalachians, a belt of 20-30-kt east-southeasterly flow in the 700-500-mb layer will overspread a hot/moist air mass with 4500 J/kg MLCAPE during the afternoon. Despite limited deep-layer shear, the extreme buoyancy and well-mixed boundary layer will be favorable for wet microbursts with the stronger convective clusters that evolve.
Northern Rockies/High Plains
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of a slow-moving midlevel trough moving across the Northwest. Preceding the trough, around 40 kt of midlevel southwesterly flow and a weakly unstable air mass will support a couple loosely organized clusters capable of producing severe wind gusts during the afternoon and evening.
..Weinman/Chalmers.. 07/01/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Thursday, July 2
Outlook Summary
Strong to severe storms will be possible from the northern Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes regions on Thursday. Isolated strong to severe storms may also occur in the Tennessee Valley/Southeast as well as parts of the Northeast.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 010601
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
### SUMMARY
Strong to severe storms will be possible from the northern Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes regions on Thursday. Isolated strong to severe storms may also occur in the Tennessee Valley/Southeast as well as parts of the Northeast.
Northern Plains into Mid-Missouri Valley
Broad cyclonic flow aloft across the Rockies will promote a lee trough and a modest surface low in the vicinity of the Black Hills. A surface boundary will arc from eastern Montana into northern South Dakota and southern Minnesota. Moisture advection into the High Plains will couple with higher terrain of MT/WY/SD as well as the surface boundary to initiate convection during the afternoon. Supercells will be likely initially with an attendant risk of large to very-large hail, severe winds, and a tornado or two. Mid-level lapse rates of 8-9 C/km will promote rapid intensification and strong downdrafts. Couple this with modest effective shear of 40-45 kt and upscale growth will be likely with time. An MCS is possible and would likely track along the surface boundary. Wind gusts of 75+ mph would be possible with this activity.
While most guidance does not show development along the surface boundary towards the mid-Missouri Valley, there will be weak warm advection ongoing through the day that will increase by late afternoon. Should storms develop here, they would likely be more isolated/cellular. A similar threat for large/very-large hail and severe gusts would exist along with a locally greater tornado threat. This would especially be the case if storms can remain discrete into the evening when low-level shear increases. Depending on whether this activity develops/evolves, this will have an impact on the spatial extent of a greater threat for severe winds into the evening and beyond. Given that uncertainty, the Slight Risk will be maintained with potential increases in wind probabilities in subsequent outlooks as confidence increases.
Midwest
Convection is expected to be ongoing in parts of the region. At least an isolated threat for damaging winds and large hail would exist with this activity. There remain some potential for intensification to occur as storms move east during the day. The Slight Risk remains in place into far western Lower Michigan to account for this potential. Later in the afternoon, redevelopment is possible along the outflow from earlier activity. The most robust model signals are in Iowa and parts of Wisconsin. Large hail would be possible especially in Iowa where mid-level lapse rates would be steeper. Otherwise damaging winds would be the main threat. A tornado or two could occur, but low-level shear will be rather weak.
Northeast
Strong buoyancy and modest shear will again be in place across the region. At least isolated storms are possible during the afternoon. Damaging winds should be the main threat with this activity. Isolated large hail may occur with the strongest storms, but modest mid-level lapse rates will limit this threat. Some guidance does show more organized activity moving into the region from Ontario/Quebec, but this may not occur until late afternoon. Confidence in that scenario occurring is too low for an increase in wind probabilities.
Tennessee Valley/Southeast
Strong heating of a very moist airmass will promote scattered to numerous storms during the afternoon. Congealing outflows will help to organize activity even with very weak shear. Given mid-level lapse rates of 7-7.5 C/km, at least marginally severe storms will be possible. Damaging winds are the expected hazard.
..Wendt.. 07/01/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Friday, July 3
Outlook Summary
Isolated to scattered severe storms are possible from the northern/central Plains into the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic on Friday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 010733
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA
### SUMMARY
Isolated to scattered severe storms are possible from the northern/central Plains into the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic on Friday.
Synopsis
A complex forecast is evident on Friday. The upper-level trough in the West will lose some amplitude, though modest flow will remain across portions of the central/northern High Plains along with embedded shortwave troughs. The most complicating piece of the forecast will be the convection that is expected to be ongoing within the Midwest during the morning. The NAM/GFS is decidedly farther north than the ECMWF with this activity. The NAM has a strong enough MCS/MCV that it pushes the moist, unstable airmass farther south through the day whereas the ECMWF keeps a favorable airmass into the northern Plains. Given the large spatial extent of strong to severe storm potential, a broad marginal is in place from the northern Plains into the Midwest/Mid-Atlantic. Shear and mid-level lapse rates will be more favorable within the High Plains. A more targeted Slight Risk was added for southern South Dakota into Nebraska. Here, there will be potential for severe storms along the outflow from the expected MCS on Thursday. This area has been biased southward given the potential for storms being elevated atop outflow farther north. Some northward adjustment is possible if greater airmass recovery occurs. Another area where greater probabilities may be needed is in the Great Lakes region depending on the track/intensity of the MCV that moves eastward out of the Missouri Valley vicinity. Into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic, storm coverage will be more isolated and deep-layer shear much weaker. That said, a very unstable airmass could promote isolated damaging downburst winds.
..Wendt.. 07/01/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Saturday, July 4
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, July 3 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Saturday, July 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, July 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, July 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, July 7 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300838 SPC AC 300838
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper-level flow is expected to become more zonal across the CONUS this Friday. The upper ridge within the East will lose amplitude and develop westward and amplify once again into early next week. The exact structure of the upper ridge does vary within model guidance. At the surface, a mostly stationary boundary will continue to be modified/reinforced by convection occurring along/near it on preceding days. As the upper ridge builds in the West, this boundary will likely get pushed farther south within the areas east of the Mississippi by the developing surface high in the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. Moisture will then be transported farther north/west in the Plains/High Plains beginning sometime this weekend. The general theme for the extended forecast will be where subtle shortwaves/MCVs will propagate and spur convection along the boundary.
For Friday, another MCS is possible along the surface boundary similar to D3/Thursday. Uncertainty in how Thursday's convection will impact the location of the boundary and most favorable environment reduces confidence on where the greatest severe threat will be. Into the weekend and early next week, some severe threat is possible in parts of the eastern CONUS in association with MCV from convection in the Plains/Midwest. Additional severe storms could occur as northwesterly flow aloft develops in the High Plains. There are still enough differences in the upper-level pattern between medium range guidance that predictability of any higher threat corridors is low.
..Wendt.. 06/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, July 5
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, July 3 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Saturday, July 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, July 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, July 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, July 7 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300838 SPC AC 300838
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper-level flow is expected to become more zonal across the CONUS this Friday. The upper ridge within the East will lose amplitude and develop westward and amplify once again into early next week. The exact structure of the upper ridge does vary within model guidance. At the surface, a mostly stationary boundary will continue to be modified/reinforced by convection occurring along/near it on preceding days. As the upper ridge builds in the West, this boundary will likely get pushed farther south within the areas east of the Mississippi by the developing surface high in the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. Moisture will then be transported farther north/west in the Plains/High Plains beginning sometime this weekend. The general theme for the extended forecast will be where subtle shortwaves/MCVs will propagate and spur convection along the boundary.
For Friday, another MCS is possible along the surface boundary similar to D3/Thursday. Uncertainty in how Thursday's convection will impact the location of the boundary and most favorable environment reduces confidence on where the greatest severe threat will be. Into the weekend and early next week, some severe threat is possible in parts of the eastern CONUS in association with MCV from convection in the Plains/Midwest. Additional severe storms could occur as northwesterly flow aloft develops in the High Plains. There are still enough differences in the upper-level pattern between medium range guidance that predictability of any higher threat corridors is low.
..Wendt.. 06/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, July 6
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, July 3 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Saturday, July 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, July 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, July 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, July 7 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300838 SPC AC 300838
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper-level flow is expected to become more zonal across the CONUS this Friday. The upper ridge within the East will lose amplitude and develop westward and amplify once again into early next week. The exact structure of the upper ridge does vary within model guidance. At the surface, a mostly stationary boundary will continue to be modified/reinforced by convection occurring along/near it on preceding days. As the upper ridge builds in the West, this boundary will likely get pushed farther south within the areas east of the Mississippi by the developing surface high in the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. Moisture will then be transported farther north/west in the Plains/High Plains beginning sometime this weekend. The general theme for the extended forecast will be where subtle shortwaves/MCVs will propagate and spur convection along the boundary.
For Friday, another MCS is possible along the surface boundary similar to D3/Thursday. Uncertainty in how Thursday's convection will impact the location of the boundary and most favorable environment reduces confidence on where the greatest severe threat will be. Into the weekend and early next week, some severe threat is possible in parts of the eastern CONUS in association with MCV from convection in the Plains/Midwest. Additional severe storms could occur as northwesterly flow aloft develops in the High Plains. There are still enough differences in the upper-level pattern between medium range guidance that predictability of any higher threat corridors is low.
..Wendt.. 06/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, July 7
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, July 3 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Saturday, July 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, July 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, July 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, July 7 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300838 SPC AC 300838
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper-level flow is expected to become more zonal across the CONUS this Friday. The upper ridge within the East will lose amplitude and develop westward and amplify once again into early next week. The exact structure of the upper ridge does vary within model guidance. At the surface, a mostly stationary boundary will continue to be modified/reinforced by convection occurring along/near it on preceding days. As the upper ridge builds in the West, this boundary will likely get pushed farther south within the areas east of the Mississippi by the developing surface high in the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. Moisture will then be transported farther north/west in the Plains/High Plains beginning sometime this weekend. The general theme for the extended forecast will be where subtle shortwaves/MCVs will propagate and spur convection along the boundary.
For Friday, another MCS is possible along the surface boundary similar to D3/Thursday. Uncertainty in how Thursday's convection will impact the location of the boundary and most favorable environment reduces confidence on where the greatest severe threat will be. Into the weekend and early next week, some severe threat is possible in parts of the eastern CONUS in association with MCV from convection in the Plains/Midwest. Additional severe storms could occur as northwesterly flow aloft develops in the High Plains. There are still enough differences in the upper-level pattern between medium range guidance that predictability of any higher threat corridors is low.
..Wendt.. 06/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, July 1
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 30%
- Thursday, July 2
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Friday, July 3
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Saturday, July 4
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, July 5
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, July 6
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, July 7
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Your Severe Outlook
Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.
Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.
Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.
About Severe Weather Outlook . com
SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.
- tornado hq - live severe weather warnings
- cyclocane - hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones
- tornado solitaire - play cards while you monitor the US severe weather threat
- tertremo - live view of earthquakes around the world
- earthquake solitaire - get live earthquake updates as you play your favorite card game