Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, January 14
Outlook Summary
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across southeast Florida and the Keys today.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 140431
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across southeast Florida and the Keys today.
Synopsis
A large-scale upper trough will deepen and pivot eastward over the eastern half of the CONUS today. An embedded shortwave within the base of the large-scale trough will move across the eastern Gulf and FL today. This will provide large-scale ascent atop a stalled frontal boundary across the southern FL Peninsula. Adequate moisture will support modest buoyancy. However, lackluster lapse rates/warm temperatures through the midlevels will preclude strong-storm potential, though a few lightning flashes will be possible.
..Leitman/Lyons.. 01/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Thursday, January 15
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are not forecast.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 140504
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1104 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not forecast.
South Florida
Pronounced upper trough will dominate the eastern CONUS during the upcoming day2 period. Latest model guidance suggests a strong surface front will have advanced across all but the southern most part of the FL Peninsula by 15/12z, then quickly surge offshore around 18z. At this time it appears the prospect for deep convection, capable of generating lightning, will be minimal as poor lapse rates and westerly flow ahead of the front do not look favorable for thunderstorms. Forecast soundings depict weakly buoyant profiles that rapidly stabilize by mid morning across the southern Peninsula. Thunderstorm probabilities are less than 10 percent.
..Darrow.. 01/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Friday, January 16
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, January 16 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, January 17 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, January 18 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, January 19 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, January 20 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130935 SPC AC 130935
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
A persistent eastern U.S large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to remain in place through the Day 4 to 8 period. As a result, northwesterly mid-level flow is forecast over much of the continental U.S. In response, multiple cold air intrusions are expected to take place across the central and eastern U.S. This will keep a relatively dry and cold airmass over much of the nation through early next week. For this reason, conditions will be unfavorable for thunderstorms in most areas, and a severe threat is not forecast in the Day 4 to 8 period.
..Broyles.. 01/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, January 17
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, January 16 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, January 17 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, January 18 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, January 19 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, January 20 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130935 SPC AC 130935
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
A persistent eastern U.S large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to remain in place through the Day 4 to 8 period. As a result, northwesterly mid-level flow is forecast over much of the continental U.S. In response, multiple cold air intrusions are expected to take place across the central and eastern U.S. This will keep a relatively dry and cold airmass over much of the nation through early next week. For this reason, conditions will be unfavorable for thunderstorms in most areas, and a severe threat is not forecast in the Day 4 to 8 period.
..Broyles.. 01/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, January 18
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, January 16 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, January 17 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, January 18 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, January 19 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, January 20 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130935 SPC AC 130935
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
A persistent eastern U.S large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to remain in place through the Day 4 to 8 period. As a result, northwesterly mid-level flow is forecast over much of the continental U.S. In response, multiple cold air intrusions are expected to take place across the central and eastern U.S. This will keep a relatively dry and cold airmass over much of the nation through early next week. For this reason, conditions will be unfavorable for thunderstorms in most areas, and a severe threat is not forecast in the Day 4 to 8 period.
..Broyles.. 01/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, January 19
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, January 16 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, January 17 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, January 18 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, January 19 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, January 20 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130935 SPC AC 130935
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
A persistent eastern U.S large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to remain in place through the Day 4 to 8 period. As a result, northwesterly mid-level flow is forecast over much of the continental U.S. In response, multiple cold air intrusions are expected to take place across the central and eastern U.S. This will keep a relatively dry and cold airmass over much of the nation through early next week. For this reason, conditions will be unfavorable for thunderstorms in most areas, and a severe threat is not forecast in the Day 4 to 8 period.
..Broyles.. 01/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, January 20
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, January 16 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, January 17 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, January 18 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, January 19 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, January 20 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130935 SPC AC 130935
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
A persistent eastern U.S large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to remain in place through the Day 4 to 8 period. As a result, northwesterly mid-level flow is forecast over much of the continental U.S. In response, multiple cold air intrusions are expected to take place across the central and eastern U.S. This will keep a relatively dry and cold airmass over much of the nation through early next week. For this reason, conditions will be unfavorable for thunderstorms in most areas, and a severe threat is not forecast in the Day 4 to 8 period.
..Broyles.. 01/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, January 14
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Thursday, January 15
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Friday, January 16
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, January 17
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, January 18
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, January 19
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, January 20
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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