Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Friday, May 1

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible today across parts of south-central and southeast Texas, and this evening into tonight along the central Gulf Coast.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 011231

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0731 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026

Valid 011300Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST…AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible today across parts of south-central and southeast Texas, and this evening into tonight along the central Gulf Coast.

Synopsis and Discussion

Early morning satellite imagery shows several shortwave troughs, including one within the southern stream over northern Mexico and another moving into Ohio Valley within the base of a large cyclone centered over the northern Ontario/Quebec border vicinity. Recent surface analysis places a weak front from Deep South Texas northeastward through the western Gulf and central Plaquemines Parish, continuing through the north-central Gulf and across northern Florida. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing north of the front and downstream of the northern Mexico shortwave from the Texas Hill County eastward to the Upper Texas Coast.

Thermodynamic conditions across these region are expected to remain largely unchanged throughout much of the day, with modest elevated instability persisting amid the moist southwesterly mid-level flow. Some modest increase in the mid-level flow is anticipated as the shortwave trough continues eastward through TX and into the Lower Mississippi Valley. An attendant increase in large-scale ascent is expected as well. Resulting increase in the deep-layer shear could result in slightly more organized storm structures and greater overall storm intensity this afternoon despite numerous preceding showers and thunderstorms, and little change in the overall thermodynamics. Large hail and damaging gusts are the primary risks with the strongest storms.

A surface low is expected to develop ahead of the shortwave trough over the western Gulf, before then tracking quickly northeastward as the shortwave continues eastward. This low will likely be just off the Deep South Texas Coast by 00Z Saturday, and off of southern Plaquemines Parish by 06Z. Elevated thunderstorms are expected across the Lower MS Valley amid a combination of warm-air advection and large-scale ascent ahead of the shortwave. The strongest storms may be capable of producing small hail. The surface low may also track far enough north for the warm sector to advect into the near-coastal regions of southeast Louisiana, far southern Mississippi, southern Alabama and the western/central Florida Panhandle. If this occurs, surface-based storms could develop, enhancing the potential for damaging gusts as well as introducing a low-probability tornado risk.

..Mosier/Dean.. 05/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

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Outlook for Saturday, May 2

Outlook Summary

Strong to severe storms are possible across southern Georgia into northern/central Florida Saturday morning into early evening.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 010500

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA

### SUMMARY

Strong to severe storms are possible across southern Georgia into northern/central Florida Saturday morning into early evening.

FL vicinity

An upper trough over the MS Valley vicinity will pivot east across the Southeast on Saturday. Strong deep-layer west/southwesterly flow associated with this system will overspread the region. Deep-layer flow will weaken with southward extent across the FL Peninsula during the afternoon, but 850-500 mb southwesterly flow is forecast to remain robust across southern GA into northern/central FL for much of the day. At the surface, a cold front will be oriented across the NC/SC coastal plain, extending southwestward to near the FL/GA line and offshore across the north-central Gulf. Ahead of the front, a seasonally moist airmass will be in place.

Convection will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the cold front Saturday morning. Current CAMs guidance varies with regard to storm mode and intensity early in the period, with the 00z HRRR being a notable outlier showing a small but well organized bowing MCS across the eastern FL Panhandle and southwest GA. Most of the rest of the CAMs guidance trends toward thunderstorm clusters. The low-level jet will be favorable for organized convection, and an organized linear system is possible, but uncertain. Downstream from early-period convection, upper 60s to near 70 F dewpoints will aid in modest destabilization. Where stronger heating can occur MLCAPE may increase to around 1000-1500 J/kg. Deep-layer flow will remain parallel to the surface boundary, so some potential for undercutting convection by the front is possible. Nevertheless, given the strength of deep layer flow and strong vertical shear amid sufficient instability, severe storms posing a risk for damaging wind gusts is possible. If any more discrete convection can develop, isolated hail is also possible. The tornado risk is less certain given a weakening low-level jet with time, questions regarding storm mode, and overall uncertainty in low-level destabilization.

..Leitman.. 05/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Sunday, May 3

Outlook Summary

A few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of northern Missouri, southeast Iowa and central Illinois on Sunday.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 010617

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY

### SUMMARY

A few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of northern Missouri, southeast Iowa and central Illinois on Sunday.

Mid-MS Valley

Northwesterly flow aloft will persist across the region on the back side of an eastern U.S. upper trough. Cold temperatures aloft (near -20 C at 500 mb) will foster steep midlevel lapse rates and support moderate MLCAPE values around 1000-2000 J/kg. However, boundary layer moisture is expected to be limited by a prior cold front passage as modified Gulf moisture remains well offshore. Surface dewpoints are generally forecast to be in the 50s as temperatures warm into the 70s. Isolated thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon within the unstable airmass amid strong west/northwesterly deep-layer flow. Some forecast guidance depicts modest capping across the region while large-scale ascent remains nebulous. If storms can develop and be maintained, a risk for strong wind gusts and hail will be possible.

..Leitman.. 05/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Monday, May 4

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010734 SPC AC 010734

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-6/Mon-Wed – Southern Plains…Mid/Lower MS Valley…Southeast

An upper trough will develop southward across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Monday. At the same time, another upper trough will be oriented over southern CA and offshore over the Pacific. In response to modest height falls and increasing westerly flow across the Rockies, a lee low will develop over the central/southern High Plains. Increasing southerly low-level flow will allow modified Gulf moisture to return northward ahead of a dryline across the southern Plains, and to the south of a cold front developing southward across the central Plains and Upper MS Valley. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible within the narrow moist/warm sector ahead of these surface boundaries, particularly the cold front across parts of the MO/Mid-MS Valley, as capping may persist further south across the Southern Plains. Given modest boundary moisture with north and east extent across the Midwest, it is uncertain how robust convection may be and where the most favorable area for severe storms may develop, precluding 15 percent probabilities at this time for Day 4/Mon.

By Day 5/Tue, the jet associated with the eastward advancing Southwest U.S. trough will being to phase with the upper trough over the north-central U.S. This will bring strengthening southwesterly flow to portions of the southern Plains and Mid-South vicinity while southwesterly low-level flow continues to transport Gulf moisture north/northeast ahead of a southeastward-advancing surface cold front. The warm sector will become increasingly narrow toward the Lower Ohio Valley, and any strong to severe thunderstorm potential would likely focus from parts of Texas into Arkansas/far western TN/KY. However, model guidance varies with regard to placement and extent of potential convection ongoing Tuesday morning, which will have implications for severe potential through the rest of the day. Differences in the location of the surface front also add uncertainty, precluding a 15 percent delineation.

Some strong to severe thunderstorm potential could persist into Day 6/Wed across parts of the Lower MS Valley and southeastern U.S. This remains uncertain and will be influenced by convective evolution in the days prior.

Days 7-8/Thu-Fri

The surface cold front is expected to move offshore the East Coast on Day 7/Thu. Thunderstorm potential will continue ahead of the front across the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic, but severe potential is uncertain as destabilization may be limited by widespread rainfall and cloud cover. On Day 8/Fri, most of the CONUS will be stable/dry behind the cold frontal passage. However, guidance suggests a shortwave upper trough will approach the southern Rockies/northern Mexico and surface cyclogenesis will maintain a moist airmass across TX. If this occurs, some severe potential could develop across parts of TX.

..Leitman.. 05/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, May 5

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010734 SPC AC 010734

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-6/Mon-Wed – Southern Plains…Mid/Lower MS Valley…Southeast

An upper trough will develop southward across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Monday. At the same time, another upper trough will be oriented over southern CA and offshore over the Pacific. In response to modest height falls and increasing westerly flow across the Rockies, a lee low will develop over the central/southern High Plains. Increasing southerly low-level flow will allow modified Gulf moisture to return northward ahead of a dryline across the southern Plains, and to the south of a cold front developing southward across the central Plains and Upper MS Valley. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible within the narrow moist/warm sector ahead of these surface boundaries, particularly the cold front across parts of the MO/Mid-MS Valley, as capping may persist further south across the Southern Plains. Given modest boundary moisture with north and east extent across the Midwest, it is uncertain how robust convection may be and where the most favorable area for severe storms may develop, precluding 15 percent probabilities at this time for Day 4/Mon.

By Day 5/Tue, the jet associated with the eastward advancing Southwest U.S. trough will being to phase with the upper trough over the north-central U.S. This will bring strengthening southwesterly flow to portions of the southern Plains and Mid-South vicinity while southwesterly low-level flow continues to transport Gulf moisture north/northeast ahead of a southeastward-advancing surface cold front. The warm sector will become increasingly narrow toward the Lower Ohio Valley, and any strong to severe thunderstorm potential would likely focus from parts of Texas into Arkansas/far western TN/KY. However, model guidance varies with regard to placement and extent of potential convection ongoing Tuesday morning, which will have implications for severe potential through the rest of the day. Differences in the location of the surface front also add uncertainty, precluding a 15 percent delineation.

Some strong to severe thunderstorm potential could persist into Day 6/Wed across parts of the Lower MS Valley and southeastern U.S. This remains uncertain and will be influenced by convective evolution in the days prior.

Days 7-8/Thu-Fri

The surface cold front is expected to move offshore the East Coast on Day 7/Thu. Thunderstorm potential will continue ahead of the front across the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic, but severe potential is uncertain as destabilization may be limited by widespread rainfall and cloud cover. On Day 8/Fri, most of the CONUS will be stable/dry behind the cold frontal passage. However, guidance suggests a shortwave upper trough will approach the southern Rockies/northern Mexico and surface cyclogenesis will maintain a moist airmass across TX. If this occurs, some severe potential could develop across parts of TX.

..Leitman.. 05/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, May 6

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010734 SPC AC 010734

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-6/Mon-Wed – Southern Plains…Mid/Lower MS Valley…Southeast

An upper trough will develop southward across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Monday. At the same time, another upper trough will be oriented over southern CA and offshore over the Pacific. In response to modest height falls and increasing westerly flow across the Rockies, a lee low will develop over the central/southern High Plains. Increasing southerly low-level flow will allow modified Gulf moisture to return northward ahead of a dryline across the southern Plains, and to the south of a cold front developing southward across the central Plains and Upper MS Valley. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible within the narrow moist/warm sector ahead of these surface boundaries, particularly the cold front across parts of the MO/Mid-MS Valley, as capping may persist further south across the Southern Plains. Given modest boundary moisture with north and east extent across the Midwest, it is uncertain how robust convection may be and where the most favorable area for severe storms may develop, precluding 15 percent probabilities at this time for Day 4/Mon.

By Day 5/Tue, the jet associated with the eastward advancing Southwest U.S. trough will being to phase with the upper trough over the north-central U.S. This will bring strengthening southwesterly flow to portions of the southern Plains and Mid-South vicinity while southwesterly low-level flow continues to transport Gulf moisture north/northeast ahead of a southeastward-advancing surface cold front. The warm sector will become increasingly narrow toward the Lower Ohio Valley, and any strong to severe thunderstorm potential would likely focus from parts of Texas into Arkansas/far western TN/KY. However, model guidance varies with regard to placement and extent of potential convection ongoing Tuesday morning, which will have implications for severe potential through the rest of the day. Differences in the location of the surface front also add uncertainty, precluding a 15 percent delineation.

Some strong to severe thunderstorm potential could persist into Day 6/Wed across parts of the Lower MS Valley and southeastern U.S. This remains uncertain and will be influenced by convective evolution in the days prior.

Days 7-8/Thu-Fri

The surface cold front is expected to move offshore the East Coast on Day 7/Thu. Thunderstorm potential will continue ahead of the front across the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic, but severe potential is uncertain as destabilization may be limited by widespread rainfall and cloud cover. On Day 8/Fri, most of the CONUS will be stable/dry behind the cold frontal passage. However, guidance suggests a shortwave upper trough will approach the southern Rockies/northern Mexico and surface cyclogenesis will maintain a moist airmass across TX. If this occurs, some severe potential could develop across parts of TX.

..Leitman.. 05/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Thursday, May 7

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010734 SPC AC 010734

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-6/Mon-Wed – Southern Plains…Mid/Lower MS Valley…Southeast

An upper trough will develop southward across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Monday. At the same time, another upper trough will be oriented over southern CA and offshore over the Pacific. In response to modest height falls and increasing westerly flow across the Rockies, a lee low will develop over the central/southern High Plains. Increasing southerly low-level flow will allow modified Gulf moisture to return northward ahead of a dryline across the southern Plains, and to the south of a cold front developing southward across the central Plains and Upper MS Valley. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible within the narrow moist/warm sector ahead of these surface boundaries, particularly the cold front across parts of the MO/Mid-MS Valley, as capping may persist further south across the Southern Plains. Given modest boundary moisture with north and east extent across the Midwest, it is uncertain how robust convection may be and where the most favorable area for severe storms may develop, precluding 15 percent probabilities at this time for Day 4/Mon.

By Day 5/Tue, the jet associated with the eastward advancing Southwest U.S. trough will being to phase with the upper trough over the north-central U.S. This will bring strengthening southwesterly flow to portions of the southern Plains and Mid-South vicinity while southwesterly low-level flow continues to transport Gulf moisture north/northeast ahead of a southeastward-advancing surface cold front. The warm sector will become increasingly narrow toward the Lower Ohio Valley, and any strong to severe thunderstorm potential would likely focus from parts of Texas into Arkansas/far western TN/KY. However, model guidance varies with regard to placement and extent of potential convection ongoing Tuesday morning, which will have implications for severe potential through the rest of the day. Differences in the location of the surface front also add uncertainty, precluding a 15 percent delineation.

Some strong to severe thunderstorm potential could persist into Day 6/Wed across parts of the Lower MS Valley and southeastern U.S. This remains uncertain and will be influenced by convective evolution in the days prior.

Days 7-8/Thu-Fri

The surface cold front is expected to move offshore the East Coast on Day 7/Thu. Thunderstorm potential will continue ahead of the front across the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic, but severe potential is uncertain as destabilization may be limited by widespread rainfall and cloud cover. On Day 8/Fri, most of the CONUS will be stable/dry behind the cold frontal passage. However, guidance suggests a shortwave upper trough will approach the southern Rockies/northern Mexico and surface cyclogenesis will maintain a moist airmass across TX. If this occurs, some severe potential could develop across parts of TX.

..Leitman.. 05/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Friday, May 8

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010734 SPC AC 010734

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-6/Mon-Wed – Southern Plains…Mid/Lower MS Valley…Southeast

An upper trough will develop southward across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Monday. At the same time, another upper trough will be oriented over southern CA and offshore over the Pacific. In response to modest height falls and increasing westerly flow across the Rockies, a lee low will develop over the central/southern High Plains. Increasing southerly low-level flow will allow modified Gulf moisture to return northward ahead of a dryline across the southern Plains, and to the south of a cold front developing southward across the central Plains and Upper MS Valley. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible within the narrow moist/warm sector ahead of these surface boundaries, particularly the cold front across parts of the MO/Mid-MS Valley, as capping may persist further south across the Southern Plains. Given modest boundary moisture with north and east extent across the Midwest, it is uncertain how robust convection may be and where the most favorable area for severe storms may develop, precluding 15 percent probabilities at this time for Day 4/Mon.

By Day 5/Tue, the jet associated with the eastward advancing Southwest U.S. trough will being to phase with the upper trough over the north-central U.S. This will bring strengthening southwesterly flow to portions of the southern Plains and Mid-South vicinity while southwesterly low-level flow continues to transport Gulf moisture north/northeast ahead of a southeastward-advancing surface cold front. The warm sector will become increasingly narrow toward the Lower Ohio Valley, and any strong to severe thunderstorm potential would likely focus from parts of Texas into Arkansas/far western TN/KY. However, model guidance varies with regard to placement and extent of potential convection ongoing Tuesday morning, which will have implications for severe potential through the rest of the day. Differences in the location of the surface front also add uncertainty, precluding a 15 percent delineation.

Some strong to severe thunderstorm potential could persist into Day 6/Wed across parts of the Lower MS Valley and southeastern U.S. This remains uncertain and will be influenced by convective evolution in the days prior.

Days 7-8/Thu-Fri

The surface cold front is expected to move offshore the East Coast on Day 7/Thu. Thunderstorm potential will continue ahead of the front across the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic, but severe potential is uncertain as destabilization may be limited by widespread rainfall and cloud cover. On Day 8/Fri, most of the CONUS will be stable/dry behind the cold frontal passage. However, guidance suggests a shortwave upper trough will approach the southern Rockies/northern Mexico and surface cyclogenesis will maintain a moist airmass across TX. If this occurs, some severe potential could develop across parts of TX.

..Leitman.. 05/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Friday, May 1

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 5%

Saturday, May 2

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 15%

Sunday, May 3

ANY SEVERE: 5%

Monday, May 4

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Tuesday, May 5

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Wednesday, May 6

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Thursday, May 7

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, May 8

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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