Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, July 7
Outlook Summary
Widely scattered to scattered severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are possible from the northern High Plains into parts of the Upper Midwest Tuesday into Tuesday night. Isolated severe storms capable of mainly damaging wind gusts are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas, the Sabine River Valley, and parts of the Great Basin.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 070546
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
### SUMMARY
Widely scattered to scattered severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are possible from the northern High Plains into parts of the Upper Midwest Tuesday into Tuesday night. Isolated severe storms capable of mainly damaging wind gusts are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas, the Sabine River Valley, and parts of the Great Basin.
Synopsis
Ahead of a shortwave trough moving from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains, the models indicate a lead disturbance (possible MCV) and associated belt of enhanced mid-level flow progressing through ND into northern MN on Tuesday. Elsewhere, a shortwave trough will move through the Northeast, while a mid-level low lingers over the Mid South/lower MS Valley.
At the surface, the primary feature of interest is a front that is expected to become quasi-stationary from western SD through central or southern MN and northern WI by afternoon. A surface low is projected to develop along the boundary in western SD with a lee trough trailing south from that feature into the central High Plains.
### Northern High Plains into the Upper Midwest
Clusters of elevated thunderstorms tied to the lead disturbance may be ongoing at 12Z Tuesday across portions of eastern MT and western ND, to the north of the surface front. Modest instability and some vertical-shear enhancement may support an isolated large hail threat through the morning, mainly in southern ND.
In the wake of the early-day storms, low-level, upslope flow will strengthen across the northern High Plains in response to the approach of a shortwave trough from the west. The associated increase in low-level moisture will coincide with a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates to yield MLCAPE up to 1000-2000 J/kg from central MT into western SD with upwards of 2000-3500 J/kg farther east along the front in SD and MN.
Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid to late afternoon within the upslope regime from central into eastern MT and along the front across SD and perhaps MN. Sufficiently strong vertical shear is forecast from MT east along the front in SD to support supercell storm modes with an associated risk for large hail and damaging winds. The 00Z CAMs indicate the initial discrete storms merging into clusters or one or more MCSs Tuesday evening into night along a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. Severe wind gusts will become the predominant hazard with that mode transition.
Additional storms are possible near and west of the lee trough in southeast WY, northeast CO, and the NE Panhandle during the afternoon into evening. The local environment will feature a deep and well-mixed boundary layer, which will support the potential for a few severe wind gusts and perhaps some hail.
### Southern Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas
A moist and moderately unstable air mass is expected to support scattered thunderstorm development by early to mid afternoon from the Blue Ridge Mountains east to the lee trough and Carolina sea breeze. Vertical shear will remain weak, which will limit the potential for storm organization. Nonetheless, the presence of steep low-level lapse rates will enhance downdraft potential, leading to the risk for sporadic damaging wind occurrences, especially with any storm clusters.
### East Texas into the Sabine River Valley
A weak vorticity lobe is forecast to pivot south through the Ozark Plateau into the ArkLaTex on Tuesday with a preceding zone of forcing for ascent acting on a very moist and moderately unstable air mass. A resultant increase in storm coverage is expected through the afternoon with some CAM signal for a loosely organized cold pool to evolve, which will support the potential for sporadic damaging wind gusts.
### Great Basin
The 00Z models suggest that a weak mid-level disturbance will move through northeast NV and northern UT Tuesday afternoon into the evening, enhancing lift and vertical shear to some extent. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of that feature by mid to late afternoon atop a deep and well-mixed boundary layer, which will be supportive of locally severe wind gusts.
..Mead/Moore.. 07/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Wednesday, July 8
Outlook Summary
Clusters of strong thunderstorms with potential to produce severe hail and wind may evolve across parts of the Upper Midwest into central Great Plains Wednesday through Wednesday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 070530
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST
### SUMMARY
Clusters of strong thunderstorms with potential to produce severe hail and wind may evolve across parts of the Upper Midwest into central Great Plains Wednesday through Wednesday night.
Discussion
While a blocking, but perhaps weakening, mid-level high lingers in the north central Canadian Arctic latitudes, it appears that one still fairly vigorous short wave trough and embedded low will begin to dig southeast of the Hudson Bay vicinity Wednesday through Wednesday night, while an upstream short wave trough pivots across the Canadian Rockies, then northward toward the Northwest Territories. In association with these developments, within a belt of modest westerlies closer to and south of the international border, subtle mid-level ridging may overspread the northern Rockies, with similar amplitude downstream troughing digging across the northern Great Plains, Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region.
Beneath this regime, a weak cold front, perhaps reinforced by convective outflow in some locations, is forecast to overspread much of the remainder of the Upper Midwest/adjacent Great Lakes and middle Missouri Valley vicinity by late Wednesday night. This may be preceded across parts of the central Great Plains by conglomerate convective outflow emanating from considerable thunderstorm development spreading off the Laramie Range/Front Range vicinity, within weak west-northwesterly steering flow.
In the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes, modest mid-level ridging is forecast to generally prevail, but weak remnant troughing may slowly migrate from the Mid South toward the southern Appalachians, along its northern periphery.
Upper Midwest
Steeper mid-level lapse rates associated with a remnant plume of elevated mixed-layer air may become increasingly confined to the higher plains during this period. However, seasonably high moisture content along/ahead of the southward advancing cold front may still become supportive of mixed-layer CAPE of 1500-2000+ J/kg with daytime heating.
Based on latest guidance, it is appearing less probable that a cluster of strong continuing thunderstorm development, with a possible MCV, will be substantively maintained into this period across parts of the Upper Midwest into adjacent Great Lakes region. But, this remains uncertain.
There appears a stronger signal for renewed thunderstorm development within the corridor of pre-frontal destabilization trailing to the southwest, across central into southern Wisconsin, southeastern Minnesota and northeastern Iowa by late Wednesday afternoon, aided by forcing for ascent with the digging mid-level troughing.
It is possible that a belt of convectively augmented westerly mid-level flow, including 30+ kt around 700 mb, contributes to sufficient shear for evolving supercell structures. These may pose a risk for severe hail, and perhaps some potential for a tornado or two, before damaging wind gusts become more prominent prior to storm weakening Wednesday evening.
Central Great Plains
By late Wednesday afternoon or early evening, it appears that boundary-layer destabilization associated with moistening easterly low-level flow may support intensification of initially scattered thunderstorm development off the Laramie Mountains through Colorado Front Range. Pronounced veering of wind fields with height may yield sufficient shear for supercells posing a risk for severe hail and wind.
There remains a fairly notable signal that forcing associated with a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet, and perhaps a subtle digging mid-level perturbation, may contribute to an upscale growing and organizing cluster with potential to produce more widespread strong to severe wind gusts Wednesday evening into Wednesday night.
Parts of the southern Mid Atlantic
Thermodynamic profiles may again become conducive to locally strong downbursts in convection likely to develop off the Blue Ridge Mountains, and within surface troughing to the north and northeast of a weak developing lee surface low. Aided by forcing for ascent associated with weak low-level warm advection and convergence, an upscale growing cluster, with potential to produce potentially damaging wind gusts along the leading edge of consolidating outflow, could overspread the North Carolina Piedmont by Wednesday evening.
..Kerr.. 07/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Thursday, July 9
Outlook Summary
Scattered strong thunderstorm development, potentially including a few evolving clusters, may impact portions of the central Great Plains through middle Mississippi Valley and parts of the Mid Atlantic Thursday through Thursday night. Much more isolated strong storms may impact parts of central North Dakota late Thursday afternoon into evening.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 070733
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS THROUGH MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY…PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC
### SUMMARY
Scattered strong thunderstorm development, potentially including a few evolving clusters, may impact portions of the central Great Plains through middle Mississippi Valley and parts of the Mid Atlantic Thursday through Thursday night. Much more isolated strong storms may impact parts of central North Dakota late Thursday afternoon into evening.
Discussion
Modest mid-latitude westerlies are forecast to remain centered near the Canadian/U.S border through this period. In the wake of one short wave trough slowly continuing to pivot northward into the Northwest Territories, and ahead of another digging near the British Columbia coast, broad mid-level ridging is forecast to build along the central Canadian/U.S. border Thursday through Thursday night. Downstream, to the south of a perturbation digging southeast of the Hudson/James Bays, broad mid-level troughing is forecast to overspread the lower Great Lakes through northern Atlantic Seaboard.
In lower latitudes, models suggest that a number of more subtle perturbations, a couple of which may generated or strengthened by convection, will progress through otherwise weak, zonal flow around the northern periphery of mid-level ridging centered in the subtropics. It appears that the most substantive thunderstorm development through this period will focus along this corridor, roughly east of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains into portions of the middle Mississippi Valley, and across portions of the Mid Atlantic.
Front Range through middle Mississippi Valley
The 07/00Z NAM is most prominent in generating a notable MCV by 12Z Thursday, associated with thunderstorm development across the central Great Plains Wednesday night. And it substantively intensifies this feature as it migrates across the lower Missouri/middle Mississippi Valleys Thursday through Thursday night. This includes a strengthening jet to 50-70 kt around 700 mb, suggesting the existence of intensifying organized convective system with the potential to produce swaths of damaging surface gusts. This is much stronger than what is generated by the ECMWF, with the GFS indicating a perturbation between these extremes.
Given the potential for a moist boundary layer with seasonably high moisture content, including lower/mid 70s F, it does appear that there may be sufficient CAPE to support the evolution of a significant severe convective system. However, the predictability of this type of feature in this type of regime at this extended range is relatively low, and reflected in the guidance. At this point severe probabilities will be introduced at 5 percent, but this will change if the consensus of guidance trends in the current direction of the NAM.
Otherwise, destabilization to the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains will probably depend on the extent of stabilizing outflow left across the central Great Plains at the outset of the period. However, at least the eastern slopes into adjacent high plans may become a focus for scattered strong thunderstorm development posing a risk for severe hail and wind by late afternoon. A remnant baroclinic zone associated with the convective outflow across Missouri into Kansas may provide another focus for strong to severe thunderstorm development late Thursday evening into Thursday night, near the nose of a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet.
Mid Atlantic
Destabilization to the lee of the Blue Ridge Mountains (centered across Virginia Thursday) may again become sufficient to support convection with potential to produce strong wind gusts and grow upscale, aided by forcing for ascent associated with a remnant short wave impulse emerging from the Tennessee Valley.
..Kerr.. 07/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Friday, July 10
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, July 9 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Friday, July 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, July 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, July 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, July 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060900 SPC AC 060900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range model output continues to indicate the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid/upper high across the lower Colorado Valley and Plateau late this week into next weekend, which may continue expanding and encompassing a significant portion of the interior U.S. by early next week. How far north and northeast this builds remains unclear; however, a plume of very warm elevated mixed layer air advecting on strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of this anticyclonic regime will contribute to an environment conditionally conducive to organized severe thunderstorm development.
It appears that this could focus anywhere from the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity through the Great Lakes into the Northeast. By early next week (the Day 8-9 time frame), in particular, at least some output suggests that a vigorous short wave trough rounding the ridge may be accompanied by strong cyclogenesis, which could promote widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of New England into northern Mid Atlantic. Given the uncertainties associated with the extended time frame and model spread/discrepancies, severe weather probabilities remain less than 15 percent for this period, but it is possible that this could change sometime in later outlook updates for this period.
..Kerr.. 07/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, July 11
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, July 9 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Friday, July 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, July 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, July 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, July 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060900 SPC AC 060900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range model output continues to indicate the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid/upper high across the lower Colorado Valley and Plateau late this week into next weekend, which may continue expanding and encompassing a significant portion of the interior U.S. by early next week. How far north and northeast this builds remains unclear; however, a plume of very warm elevated mixed layer air advecting on strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of this anticyclonic regime will contribute to an environment conditionally conducive to organized severe thunderstorm development.
It appears that this could focus anywhere from the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity through the Great Lakes into the Northeast. By early next week (the Day 8-9 time frame), in particular, at least some output suggests that a vigorous short wave trough rounding the ridge may be accompanied by strong cyclogenesis, which could promote widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of New England into northern Mid Atlantic. Given the uncertainties associated with the extended time frame and model spread/discrepancies, severe weather probabilities remain less than 15 percent for this period, but it is possible that this could change sometime in later outlook updates for this period.
..Kerr.. 07/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, July 12
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, July 9 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Friday, July 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, July 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, July 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, July 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060900 SPC AC 060900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range model output continues to indicate the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid/upper high across the lower Colorado Valley and Plateau late this week into next weekend, which may continue expanding and encompassing a significant portion of the interior U.S. by early next week. How far north and northeast this builds remains unclear; however, a plume of very warm elevated mixed layer air advecting on strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of this anticyclonic regime will contribute to an environment conditionally conducive to organized severe thunderstorm development.
It appears that this could focus anywhere from the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity through the Great Lakes into the Northeast. By early next week (the Day 8-9 time frame), in particular, at least some output suggests that a vigorous short wave trough rounding the ridge may be accompanied by strong cyclogenesis, which could promote widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of New England into northern Mid Atlantic. Given the uncertainties associated with the extended time frame and model spread/discrepancies, severe weather probabilities remain less than 15 percent for this period, but it is possible that this could change sometime in later outlook updates for this period.
..Kerr.. 07/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, July 13
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, July 9 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Friday, July 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, July 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, July 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, July 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060900 SPC AC 060900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range model output continues to indicate the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid/upper high across the lower Colorado Valley and Plateau late this week into next weekend, which may continue expanding and encompassing a significant portion of the interior U.S. by early next week. How far north and northeast this builds remains unclear; however, a plume of very warm elevated mixed layer air advecting on strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of this anticyclonic regime will contribute to an environment conditionally conducive to organized severe thunderstorm development.
It appears that this could focus anywhere from the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity through the Great Lakes into the Northeast. By early next week (the Day 8-9 time frame), in particular, at least some output suggests that a vigorous short wave trough rounding the ridge may be accompanied by strong cyclogenesis, which could promote widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of New England into northern Mid Atlantic. Given the uncertainties associated with the extended time frame and model spread/discrepancies, severe weather probabilities remain less than 15 percent for this period, but it is possible that this could change sometime in later outlook updates for this period.
..Kerr.. 07/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, July 7
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Wednesday, July 8
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Thursday, July 9
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Friday, July 10
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, July 11
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, July 12
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, July 13
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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