Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Friday, March 13

Saturday, March 14

Sunday, March 15

Monday, March 16

Tuesday, March 17

Wednesday, March 18

Thursday, March 19

Friday, March 20

Outlook for Friday, March 13

Outlook Summary

Strong/gusty winds may occur with low-topped convection across parts of western/central Pennsylvania and vicinity this afternoon, but organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 131942

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Valid 132000Z - 141200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Strong/gusty winds may occur with low-topped convection across parts of western/central Pennsylvania and vicinity this afternoon, but organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast.

20Z Update

No changes are necessary to the ongoing forecast. See the previous discussion for additional details.

..Wendt.. 03/13/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026/

Western/Central Pennsylvania

An upper trough with associated 100-125 kt mid-level jet will move eastward today from the Great Lakes/OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Rather strong low/mid-level flow will overspread the upper OH Valley into western/central PA and vicinity by this afternoon ahead of a surface cold front. Low-level moisture is expected to remain very limited, with surface dewpoints in the teens and 20s across this area as of late morning/early afternoon. Some modest increase in boundary-layer moisture and cold temperatures aloft attendant to the upper trough may support weak MUCAPE with modest daytime heating. One or more bands of low-topped convection may develop and pose some threat for strong/gusty winds beyond the already enhanced background gradient wind field. However, the meager moisture and instability forecast this afternoon suggest that any severe risk will likely be very isolated, so low wind probabilities have not been included with this update.

Central/Southern Florida Peninsula

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon across parts of the central/southern FL Peninsula along and south of a remnant front. This convection may preferentially form along the Atlantic Coast sea breeze in a weakly unstable environment. Poor lapse rates aloft (reference 12Z KEY and 00Z MFL observed soundings) and weak low/mid-level winds noted on recent KAMX/KBYX VWPs will likely limit overall updraft strength and organization. While small hail and/or gusty winds could occur with the stronger cores that develop, the overall severe threat should remain low.

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

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Outlook for Saturday, March 14

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 131728

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.

Discussion

A generally zonal pattern across the CONUS will become more amplified on Saturday with a trough developing across the Plains by the end of the period. A lack of moisture will limit severe weather concerns Saturday and Saturday night.

Where greater moisture is present across Florida, isolated storms are expected on Saturday amid moderate instability and weak height falls. Shear will be on the weaker side (~25 knots) and mid-level lapse rates will remain weak. Therefore, an isolated stronger storm is possible, but more organized severe storms are not expected.

Isolated thunderstorms may be possible north of the warm front from northern Iowa/southern Minnesota into southwest Wisconsin early Sunday morning given the strong isentropic ascent, but forecast soundings show relatively meager moisture/instability at this time, which may preclude more widespread thunderstorm development.

..Bentley.. 03/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Sunday, March 15

Outlook Summary

A widespread damaging wind event with some tornado threat is likely on late Sunday afternoon through Sunday night from northeast Texas to southwest Lower Michigan. The greatest wind threat appears to be from northeast Arkansas/western Tennessee to southern Indiana during the evening and overnight hours.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 45%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 131932

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY.

### SUMMARY

A widespread damaging wind event with some tornado threat is likely on late Sunday afternoon through Sunday night from northeast Texas to southwest Lower Michigan. The greatest wind threat appears to be from northeast Arkansas/western Tennessee to southern Indiana during the evening and overnight hours.

Synopsis

A 100+ knot mid-level jet will lead to rapid amplification as it rounds the base of the mid-level trough across the Central Plains on Sunday. As the associated surface cyclone moves northeastward through the day, strong low-level moisture transport will occur across the warm sector. This will result in weak to potentially moderate instability ahead of the cold front Sunday afternoon. This cold front will accelerate east-southeastward from the Midwest to the Mid-Mississippi Valley during the afternoon and from Ohio to western Georgia/eastern Alabama by Monday morning.

.Ohio Valley

Despite dewpoints only increasing to the mid to upper 50s, a very favorable kinematic environment will be in place with a 70 knot low-level jet and nearly 125 knot mid-level jet by Monday morning. Given this wind field, any instability, combined with the strong frontal forcing, will be sufficient for a powerful QLCS during the evening and overnight hours. This squall line will likely have widespread 60+ mph wind gusts with some stronger 75+ mph wind gusts possible.

In addition, very long hodographs with 200+ m2/s2 0-500m SRH will support a threat for line-embedded tornadoes, some of which could be strong. Additionally, the strong shear may also allow for some embedded supercells, also depicted by the 12Z RRFS, which also may lead to a locally greater tornado threat. Pre-frontal development cannot be ruled out, especially from northeast Arkansas to southern Illinois at the nose of the 500mb jet and the northern extent of the richer low-level moisture. This scenario is more uncertain, but could pose a greater tornado threat if it were to materialize.

Lower Mississippi Valley to the Southeast

The squall line will form during the afternoon, perhaps with some initial supercell/hail threat across Arkansas and northeast Texas and then move northeastward through the overnight period. The strongest low-mid level wind field will remain north of this region, however, greater instability will compensate and should maintain the damaging squall line through the overnight hours. The greatest STP values within the entire risk area are forecast (by the 12Z NAM) between 03Z and 12Z from western Tennessee to central Mississippi and northwest Alabama. Therefore, expect a QLCS tornado threat to accompany the damaging wind threat through the overnight and early morning period.

FL/AL Coast

Toward the end of the period, richer low-level moisture will begin to move inland across the FL Panhandle into southern Alabama. Within this zone, discrete convection may develop after 08Z. If this were to occur, strong shear would support supercells capable of tornadoes.

..Bentley.. 03/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Monday, March 16

Outlook Images

any severe 30%

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, March 16	30%
Day 5	Tuesday, March 17	potential too low
Day 6	Wednesday, March 18	potential too low
Day 7	Thursday, March 19	potential too low
Day 8	Friday, March 20	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 132004 SPC AC 132004

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook AMEND 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

AMENDED TO EXPAND D4/MONDAY THREAT AREAS

DISCUSSION

Updated discussion for D4

The majority of deterministic and ensemble model guidance agree on a deep midlevel trough and associated cold front that will move eastward across the Appalachians and to the Atlantic coast by Tuesday morning. Severe storms could be ongoing at the beginning of the period along the northeast Gulf coast into GA. The warm sector, characterized by boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s, will expand northward (generally east of the Appalachians) through the day as far north as PA. Though clouds could limit downstream surface heating somewhat, very strong wind profiles and focused forcing for ascent will favor a continuation of convection along the front, as well as pre-frontal convection, with the potential to produce relatively widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes.

Previous discussion below

Significant severe winds and the potential for a few tornadoes will develop on Monday over parts of the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic.

Models are in good agreement with the large scale pattern on Monday/D4, depicting a deep upper trough moving out of the Mississippi Valley and ejecting in negative-tilt fashion across the Mid Atlantic and into to the Northeast.

Given the antecedent upper ridging on the previous day, low-level southerly winds will help to moisten the air mass well ahead of an approaching cold front. By 12Z Monday, 60s F dewpoints will already extend from northern GA across the Piedmont and into southeast VA, and this plume of moisture will rapidly spread north with near 60 F dewpoints into southeast PA by 00Z.

There appears to be two regimes for severe potential on Monday. First, up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE may develop well ahead of the approaching cold front, and there is some indication that scattered convection may occur across the warm sector from mid to late afternoon. If this occurs, supercells would be most likely, with potential for a few tornadoes from the Carolinas into eastern VA.

Models also indicate an elongated pressure fall/rise couplet, which when combined with 50-70 kt 850 mb winds and extreme low-level shear, could easily result in a QLCS along the cold front with corridors of significant damaging winds and embedded tornado risk.

Beyond Monday/D4, stable air behind this system will likely preclude any severe threat through Friday/D8.

..Thompson.. 03/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Tuesday, March 17

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, March 16	30%
Day 5	Tuesday, March 17	potential too low
Day 6	Wednesday, March 18	potential too low
Day 7	Thursday, March 19	potential too low
Day 8	Friday, March 20	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 132004 SPC AC 132004

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook AMEND 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

AMENDED TO EXPAND D4/MONDAY THREAT AREAS

DISCUSSION

Updated discussion for D4

The majority of deterministic and ensemble model guidance agree on a deep midlevel trough and associated cold front that will move eastward across the Appalachians and to the Atlantic coast by Tuesday morning. Severe storms could be ongoing at the beginning of the period along the northeast Gulf coast into GA. The warm sector, characterized by boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s, will expand northward (generally east of the Appalachians) through the day as far north as PA. Though clouds could limit downstream surface heating somewhat, very strong wind profiles and focused forcing for ascent will favor a continuation of convection along the front, as well as pre-frontal convection, with the potential to produce relatively widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes.

Previous discussion below

Significant severe winds and the potential for a few tornadoes will develop on Monday over parts of the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic.

Models are in good agreement with the large scale pattern on Monday/D4, depicting a deep upper trough moving out of the Mississippi Valley and ejecting in negative-tilt fashion across the Mid Atlantic and into to the Northeast.

Given the antecedent upper ridging on the previous day, low-level southerly winds will help to moisten the air mass well ahead of an approaching cold front. By 12Z Monday, 60s F dewpoints will already extend from northern GA across the Piedmont and into southeast VA, and this plume of moisture will rapidly spread north with near 60 F dewpoints into southeast PA by 00Z.

There appears to be two regimes for severe potential on Monday. First, up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE may develop well ahead of the approaching cold front, and there is some indication that scattered convection may occur across the warm sector from mid to late afternoon. If this occurs, supercells would be most likely, with potential for a few tornadoes from the Carolinas into eastern VA.

Models also indicate an elongated pressure fall/rise couplet, which when combined with 50-70 kt 850 mb winds and extreme low-level shear, could easily result in a QLCS along the cold front with corridors of significant damaging winds and embedded tornado risk.

Beyond Monday/D4, stable air behind this system will likely preclude any severe threat through Friday/D8.

..Thompson.. 03/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Wednesday, March 18

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, March 16	30%
Day 5	Tuesday, March 17	potential too low
Day 6	Wednesday, March 18	potential too low
Day 7	Thursday, March 19	potential too low
Day 8	Friday, March 20	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 132004 SPC AC 132004

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook AMEND 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

AMENDED TO EXPAND D4/MONDAY THREAT AREAS

DISCUSSION

Updated discussion for D4

The majority of deterministic and ensemble model guidance agree on a deep midlevel trough and associated cold front that will move eastward across the Appalachians and to the Atlantic coast by Tuesday morning. Severe storms could be ongoing at the beginning of the period along the northeast Gulf coast into GA. The warm sector, characterized by boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s, will expand northward (generally east of the Appalachians) through the day as far north as PA. Though clouds could limit downstream surface heating somewhat, very strong wind profiles and focused forcing for ascent will favor a continuation of convection along the front, as well as pre-frontal convection, with the potential to produce relatively widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes.

Previous discussion below

Significant severe winds and the potential for a few tornadoes will develop on Monday over parts of the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic.

Models are in good agreement with the large scale pattern on Monday/D4, depicting a deep upper trough moving out of the Mississippi Valley and ejecting in negative-tilt fashion across the Mid Atlantic and into to the Northeast.

Given the antecedent upper ridging on the previous day, low-level southerly winds will help to moisten the air mass well ahead of an approaching cold front. By 12Z Monday, 60s F dewpoints will already extend from northern GA across the Piedmont and into southeast VA, and this plume of moisture will rapidly spread north with near 60 F dewpoints into southeast PA by 00Z.

There appears to be two regimes for severe potential on Monday. First, up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE may develop well ahead of the approaching cold front, and there is some indication that scattered convection may occur across the warm sector from mid to late afternoon. If this occurs, supercells would be most likely, with potential for a few tornadoes from the Carolinas into eastern VA.

Models also indicate an elongated pressure fall/rise couplet, which when combined with 50-70 kt 850 mb winds and extreme low-level shear, could easily result in a QLCS along the cold front with corridors of significant damaging winds and embedded tornado risk.

Beyond Monday/D4, stable air behind this system will likely preclude any severe threat through Friday/D8.

..Thompson.. 03/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Thursday, March 19

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, March 16	30%
Day 5	Tuesday, March 17	potential too low
Day 6	Wednesday, March 18	potential too low
Day 7	Thursday, March 19	potential too low
Day 8	Friday, March 20	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 132004 SPC AC 132004

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook AMEND 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

AMENDED TO EXPAND D4/MONDAY THREAT AREAS

DISCUSSION

Updated discussion for D4

The majority of deterministic and ensemble model guidance agree on a deep midlevel trough and associated cold front that will move eastward across the Appalachians and to the Atlantic coast by Tuesday morning. Severe storms could be ongoing at the beginning of the period along the northeast Gulf coast into GA. The warm sector, characterized by boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s, will expand northward (generally east of the Appalachians) through the day as far north as PA. Though clouds could limit downstream surface heating somewhat, very strong wind profiles and focused forcing for ascent will favor a continuation of convection along the front, as well as pre-frontal convection, with the potential to produce relatively widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes.

Previous discussion below

Significant severe winds and the potential for a few tornadoes will develop on Monday over parts of the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic.

Models are in good agreement with the large scale pattern on Monday/D4, depicting a deep upper trough moving out of the Mississippi Valley and ejecting in negative-tilt fashion across the Mid Atlantic and into to the Northeast.

Given the antecedent upper ridging on the previous day, low-level southerly winds will help to moisten the air mass well ahead of an approaching cold front. By 12Z Monday, 60s F dewpoints will already extend from northern GA across the Piedmont and into southeast VA, and this plume of moisture will rapidly spread north with near 60 F dewpoints into southeast PA by 00Z.

There appears to be two regimes for severe potential on Monday. First, up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE may develop well ahead of the approaching cold front, and there is some indication that scattered convection may occur across the warm sector from mid to late afternoon. If this occurs, supercells would be most likely, with potential for a few tornadoes from the Carolinas into eastern VA.

Models also indicate an elongated pressure fall/rise couplet, which when combined with 50-70 kt 850 mb winds and extreme low-level shear, could easily result in a QLCS along the cold front with corridors of significant damaging winds and embedded tornado risk.

Beyond Monday/D4, stable air behind this system will likely preclude any severe threat through Friday/D8.

..Thompson.. 03/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Friday, March 20

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, March 16	30%
Day 5	Tuesday, March 17	potential too low
Day 6	Wednesday, March 18	potential too low
Day 7	Thursday, March 19	potential too low
Day 8	Friday, March 20	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 132004 SPC AC 132004

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook AMEND 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

AMENDED TO EXPAND D4/MONDAY THREAT AREAS

DISCUSSION

Updated discussion for D4

The majority of deterministic and ensemble model guidance agree on a deep midlevel trough and associated cold front that will move eastward across the Appalachians and to the Atlantic coast by Tuesday morning. Severe storms could be ongoing at the beginning of the period along the northeast Gulf coast into GA. The warm sector, characterized by boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s, will expand northward (generally east of the Appalachians) through the day as far north as PA. Though clouds could limit downstream surface heating somewhat, very strong wind profiles and focused forcing for ascent will favor a continuation of convection along the front, as well as pre-frontal convection, with the potential to produce relatively widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes.

Previous discussion below

Significant severe winds and the potential for a few tornadoes will develop on Monday over parts of the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic.

Models are in good agreement with the large scale pattern on Monday/D4, depicting a deep upper trough moving out of the Mississippi Valley and ejecting in negative-tilt fashion across the Mid Atlantic and into to the Northeast.

Given the antecedent upper ridging on the previous day, low-level southerly winds will help to moisten the air mass well ahead of an approaching cold front. By 12Z Monday, 60s F dewpoints will already extend from northern GA across the Piedmont and into southeast VA, and this plume of moisture will rapidly spread north with near 60 F dewpoints into southeast PA by 00Z.

There appears to be two regimes for severe potential on Monday. First, up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE may develop well ahead of the approaching cold front, and there is some indication that scattered convection may occur across the warm sector from mid to late afternoon. If this occurs, supercells would be most likely, with potential for a few tornadoes from the Carolinas into eastern VA.

Models also indicate an elongated pressure fall/rise couplet, which when combined with 50-70 kt 850 mb winds and extreme low-level shear, could easily result in a QLCS along the cold front with corridors of significant damaging winds and embedded tornado risk.

Beyond Monday/D4, stable air behind this system will likely preclude any severe threat through Friday/D8.

..Thompson.. 03/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

National Risk Overview

Friday, March 13: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Saturday, March 14: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Sunday, March 15: ANY SEVERE: 45%
Monday, March 16: ANY SEVERE: 30%
Tuesday, March 17: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, March 18: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, March 19: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, March 20: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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