Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Saturday, June 6

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms with severe wind swaths (some gusts possibly exceeding 75 mph) and isolated large hail are expected this afternoon/evening from the Ohio Valley to the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. Large hail and severe wind gusts (including gusts exceeding 75 mph) are also expected in the northern High Plains late this afternoon/evening.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 061952

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026

Valid 062000Z - 071200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS

### THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms with severe wind swaths (some gusts possibly exceeding 75 mph) and isolated large hail are expected this afternoon/evening from the Ohio Valley to the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. Large hail and severe wind gusts (including gusts exceeding 75 mph) are also expected in the northern High Plains late this afternoon/evening.

20Z Update

The primary changes to the outlook were to upgrade to Enhanced Risk across portions of the Mid Atlantic and the northern High Plains for the potential of severe wind swaths.

Across the Mid Atlantic, a cold-pool-driven bow echo MCS continues to rapidly track eastward with a history of both wind damage and measured severe gusts well exceeding 50 knots. To the north of this bow echo, more multicellular convection has oscillated in intensity, also with a history of occasional damaging gusts. The latest mesoanalysis depicts increasing buoyancy and eroding MLCINH ahead of the aforementioned ongoing storms, with surface temperatures exceeding 90 F, yielding over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. The strongly heated boundary layer will encourage efficient evaporative cooling and downward momentum transport to support damaging to severe gusts. Furthermore, appreciable westerly flow above 500 mb is encouraging 35+ kts of effective bulk shear oriented normal to the bow echo and surrounding storms. This shear may aid in continued or further development of organized storm modes capable of producing damaging wind swaths, perhaps with a few gusts exceeding 75 mph.

Across the northern High Plains, guidance consensus continues to depict multicellular modes of convection developing atop a well-mixed boundary layer, where 90+ F surface temperatures and 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE are already in place. The current thinking is that 40+ kts of effective bulk shear will be in place to support organized multicells and perhaps an MCS later this evening. As such, a damaging wind swath may occur, with a few 75+ mph gusts possible.

Across the remainder of the CONUS, the previous forecast remains on track.

..Squitieri.. 06/06/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026/

OH Valley into New England through late evening

A surface cyclone will move eastward across southern QC this afternoon and into northern New England tonight, in advance of a midlevel shortwave trough over the Great Lakes. An associated surface cold front will progress southward into the OH Valley and southeastward to near the southern New England and northern Mid-Atlantic coasts by early Sunday. A convective cluster is ongoing as of midday in OH to the south of the cold front, and it appears likely that these storms will be maintained through the afternoon as surface temperatures continue to warm and MLCAPE increases into the 1000-1500 J/kg range. Sufficient buoyancy, along with steepening low-level lapse rates and gradually strengthening midlevel flow, will result in the potential for downward momentum transfer and wind damage from eastern OH across PA through the afternoon (potentially reaching Philadelphia-New York City by this evening). Otherwise, additional storm development will be possible later this afternoon along the cold front from the OH Valley into NY, where a mix of supercells and multicell clusters will be capable of producing damaging winds, isolated large hail, and a tornado or two.

Northern High Plains late this afternoon through late evening

A midlevel trough will continue eastward from WA/OR to the northern Rockies, with downstream lee cyclogenesis expected across southeast MT. Forecast soundings suggest surface temperatures will need to reach ~90 F to weaken convective inhibition and support thunderstorm development along the stalled front across northeast MT/northwest ND late this afternoon/evening. Forecast wind profiles support both multicell clusters and supercells, and steep lapse rates through most of the column will favor both severe outflow gusts (up to 75 mph) and large hail (up to 2 inches in diameter) with a mix of high-based supercells and multicell clusters.

TX/OK this afternoon

Pockets of surface heating from central/northwest TX into southern OK, near and south of a weak surface low and MCV, will support additional thunderstorm development through the afternoon. Isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail will be the main concerns this afternoon.

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Outlook for Sunday, June 7

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe storms capable of damaging hail and wind (some significant), and perhaps a tornado or two are forecast across the northern High Plains. More isolated storms may produce locally damaging wind gusts centered over southeast Virginia, with a brief/weak tornado possible from eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 061734

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 PM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe storms capable of damaging hail and wind (some significant), and perhaps a tornado or two are forecast across the northern High Plains. More isolated storms may produce locally damaging wind gusts centered over southeast Virginia, with a brief/weak tornado possible from eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas.

Northern Plains

A strong shortwave trough will move out of the Pacific Northwest and across MT Sunday, continuing northeastward into SK overnight. The southern periphery of the stronger midlevel flow will extend across WY and into the western Dakotas, aiding deep-layer shear. At the surface, low pressure will deepen across the northern High Plains, ahead of a cold front which will surge into eastern MT and northern WY late in the day.

Storms are likely to form over southeast MT and northern WY during the late afternoon near the higher terrain, and within the surface trough from western ND to the Black Hills.

Supercells appear likely initially as deep-layer shear and lapse rates will be favorable. A tornado or two may occur with these initial supercells over MT/WY/Black Hills area, and, over northern ND where low-level SRH will be strongest. Locally significant hail may occur as well.

With time, one or more corridors of severe and possibly significant wind damage is expected, as storms produce outflow and propagate northeastward into the Dakotas. Several models indicate a strong rear-inflow signal with over 50 kt westerlies just off the surface behind the activity.

Eastern OK into AR and southwest MO

A weak midlevel wave will move northeastward across OK and toward MO, while southerly surface winds generally increase across the Plains. A broad area of upper 60s F to 70s F dewpoints will develop northward over the entire region, with areas of moderate instability and high PWAT developing. Some increase in diurnal convection is anticipated, related to the midlevel wave, which may enhance wind profiles somewhat. Forecast soundings indicate veering winds with height, and 200-300 m2/s2 SRH may develop late in the day and into the evening. In addition to heavy rain, any stronger cells that develop may acquire rotation, with a brief tornado or two possible.

Southeast VA into far northeast NC

A shortwave trough will exist over the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, with 30-40 kt midlevel northwesterlies into eastern VA. A surface trough will extend southwestward from the parent low over the Maritimes, into the DelMarVa, southeast VA and northeast NC during the afternoon. Strong heating will result in steep boundary layer lapse rates, while sufficient low-level moisture supports marginal instability. Given the favorable time of day and convergence near the trough, isolated cells are expected which may produce locally damaging gusts.

..Jewell.. 06/06/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Monday, June 8

Outlook Summary

Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts appear possible across the central High Plains Monday afternoon and evening. Isolated hail cannot be ruled out over the far northern Plains near the Canadian border into Tuesday morning.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 061929

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS…AND OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS LATE

### SUMMARY

Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts appear possible across the central High Plains Monday afternoon and evening. Isolated hail cannot be ruled out over the far northern Plains near the Canadian border into Tuesday morning.

Synopsis

On Monday, a shortwave trough will continue moving north across central Canada, with height rises across the Plains during the day. Scattered early day thunderstorms are expected to diminish across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley as subsidence occurs aloft.

During the afternoon, a lee trough is forecast to redevelop from eastern WY into CO and toward the OK/TX Panhandles, where strong heating will lead to steep low-level lapse rates and a deeply mixed boundary layer. Moisture will be more limited, but late-developing southeast surface winds will eventually bring higher dewpoints westward toward the surface trough.

Central Plains

Storms are expected to develop during the late afternoon and early evening over eastern CO, with more isolated activity along the dryline into the TX Panhandle. Deep-layer shear near 35 kt as well as increasing 850 mb winds may support a few clusters of storms persisting into western NE and KS through the evening as well. Locally damaging wind gusts appear most probable.

Far northeast MT…Northern ND…Northwest MN

A warm front will develop and surge northward late Monday night into Tuesday morning, close to the Canadian border by 12Z. This will occur ahead of a developing shortwave trough moving into the northern Rockies. Forecast soundings indicate substantial elevated CAPE will be possible, as a 40 kt southerly low-level jet brings moisture northward. Lapse rates aloft will be steep, and may favor isolated hail.

Mid MS/OH Valleys

A slow-moving midlevel wave is likely to be located over the Mid MS to OH Valley, where a very moist air mass will exist. Scattered thunderstorms are likely with this feature, which may also be accompanied by stronger low-level shear on the mesoscale. However, predictability for this feature is low this far out in time.

..Jewell.. 06/06/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, June 9

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060843 SPC AC 060843

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

DISCUSSION

Day4/Tuesday

Latest model guidance remains in good agreement in depicting the progression of a short-wave trough and associated mid/upper-level jet streaks into the northern High Plains Tuesday afternoon and evening, with downstream height falls overspreading the Dakotas. At the surface, a lee cyclone over eastern MT Tuesday afternoon is expected to develop north-northeast through western ND, while a trailing cold front edges east into the western Dakotas.

Steep low/mid-level lapse rates coupled with boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s are expected to contribute to moderate to strong instability across the warm sector, supporting vigorous thunderstorm development by late afternoon into evening as the mid-level height falls overspread the region. Strengthening vertical shear with the arrival of the jet streaks will favor supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. Some tornado threat could materialize across central ND during the evening hours as low-level shear strengths in response to an intensifying low-level jet.

### Day5/Wednesday

The ensembles depict the elongation of a prominent, western U.S. trough into the northern Plains, with an associated jet extension stretching into the upper MS Valley. That notion is confirmed by the majority of deterministic models, which indicate a significant short-wave trough and associated mid/upper-level jets moving through the northern and central Plains. At the surface, there is good agreement between the deterministic models and ensemble member clustering that the primary surface low initially over central SD Wednesday morning will develop north-northeast through the ND-MN Red River Valley into southeast Manitoba, while a trailing cold front advances through the eastern Dakotas into the upper MS Valley, mid MO Valley, and central High Plains.

Steep lapse rates and a very moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate to strong instability across the warm sector by mid afternoon, with initial thunderstorm development anticipated along the front from the eastern Dakotas into western MN. Subsequent storm initiation appears likely southwestward along the front through the mid MO Valley into the central Plains. While there is some model signal that the deep-layer shear vectors may only cross the surface frontal zone at a small angle, sufficient bulk shear magnitudes will exist to support supercells and bowing structures amidst potentially more complex/messy storm modes. All severe-weather hazards are possible, with that threat quickly spreading through the upper MS Valley into the upper Midwest Wednesday evening into night.

Should subsequent model runs remain consistent with current trends, a 30% unconditional probability contour may be included in the next forecast update.

### Day 6/Thursday

Both the ensemble mean and deterministic models indicate the development of a prominent mid-level low over Manitoba or northwest Ontario, with a belt of unseasonably strong mid-level flow stretching from the northern or central Plains into the Great Lakes. At the surface, ensemble member clustering and the deterministic models indicate the primary low pressure over northwest Ontario with a trailing cold front stretching from the upper Midwest through the mid MS Valley into southern Plains.

While mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be weaker than in previous days, the presence of a moist air mass will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon within the warm sector. Strong to potentially severe storms appear possible from the upper Midwest into Great Lakes southwest into the OH and mid MS Valleys during the afternoon and evening hours. The models suggest that the strongest deep-layer shear may lag the surface warm sector to the immediate west, which casts some uncertainty on the extent of the severe-weather threat. As such, no area will be delineated in this forecast.

### Days 7-8/Friday and Saturday

The ensemble mean solutions suggest a gradual deamplification of the north-central CONUS trough, with a belt of stronger mid-level flow stretching from the northern Plains through the Great Lakes. At the surface, there is considerable variability in the position of any relevant frontal systems that might focus strong to severe storm development.

..Mead.. 06/06/2026

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Outlook for Wednesday, June 10

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060843 SPC AC 060843

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

DISCUSSION

Day4/Tuesday

Latest model guidance remains in good agreement in depicting the progression of a short-wave trough and associated mid/upper-level jet streaks into the northern High Plains Tuesday afternoon and evening, with downstream height falls overspreading the Dakotas. At the surface, a lee cyclone over eastern MT Tuesday afternoon is expected to develop north-northeast through western ND, while a trailing cold front edges east into the western Dakotas.

Steep low/mid-level lapse rates coupled with boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s are expected to contribute to moderate to strong instability across the warm sector, supporting vigorous thunderstorm development by late afternoon into evening as the mid-level height falls overspread the region. Strengthening vertical shear with the arrival of the jet streaks will favor supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. Some tornado threat could materialize across central ND during the evening hours as low-level shear strengths in response to an intensifying low-level jet.

### Day5/Wednesday

The ensembles depict the elongation of a prominent, western U.S. trough into the northern Plains, with an associated jet extension stretching into the upper MS Valley. That notion is confirmed by the majority of deterministic models, which indicate a significant short-wave trough and associated mid/upper-level jets moving through the northern and central Plains. At the surface, there is good agreement between the deterministic models and ensemble member clustering that the primary surface low initially over central SD Wednesday morning will develop north-northeast through the ND-MN Red River Valley into southeast Manitoba, while a trailing cold front advances through the eastern Dakotas into the upper MS Valley, mid MO Valley, and central High Plains.

Steep lapse rates and a very moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate to strong instability across the warm sector by mid afternoon, with initial thunderstorm development anticipated along the front from the eastern Dakotas into western MN. Subsequent storm initiation appears likely southwestward along the front through the mid MO Valley into the central Plains. While there is some model signal that the deep-layer shear vectors may only cross the surface frontal zone at a small angle, sufficient bulk shear magnitudes will exist to support supercells and bowing structures amidst potentially more complex/messy storm modes. All severe-weather hazards are possible, with that threat quickly spreading through the upper MS Valley into the upper Midwest Wednesday evening into night.

Should subsequent model runs remain consistent with current trends, a 30% unconditional probability contour may be included in the next forecast update.

### Day 6/Thursday

Both the ensemble mean and deterministic models indicate the development of a prominent mid-level low over Manitoba or northwest Ontario, with a belt of unseasonably strong mid-level flow stretching from the northern or central Plains into the Great Lakes. At the surface, ensemble member clustering and the deterministic models indicate the primary low pressure over northwest Ontario with a trailing cold front stretching from the upper Midwest through the mid MS Valley into southern Plains.

While mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be weaker than in previous days, the presence of a moist air mass will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon within the warm sector. Strong to potentially severe storms appear possible from the upper Midwest into Great Lakes southwest into the OH and mid MS Valleys during the afternoon and evening hours. The models suggest that the strongest deep-layer shear may lag the surface warm sector to the immediate west, which casts some uncertainty on the extent of the severe-weather threat. As such, no area will be delineated in this forecast.

### Days 7-8/Friday and Saturday

The ensemble mean solutions suggest a gradual deamplification of the north-central CONUS trough, with a belt of stronger mid-level flow stretching from the northern Plains through the Great Lakes. At the surface, there is considerable variability in the position of any relevant frontal systems that might focus strong to severe storm development.

..Mead.. 06/06/2026

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Outlook for Thursday, June 11

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060843 SPC AC 060843

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

DISCUSSION

Day4/Tuesday

Latest model guidance remains in good agreement in depicting the progression of a short-wave trough and associated mid/upper-level jet streaks into the northern High Plains Tuesday afternoon and evening, with downstream height falls overspreading the Dakotas. At the surface, a lee cyclone over eastern MT Tuesday afternoon is expected to develop north-northeast through western ND, while a trailing cold front edges east into the western Dakotas.

Steep low/mid-level lapse rates coupled with boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s are expected to contribute to moderate to strong instability across the warm sector, supporting vigorous thunderstorm development by late afternoon into evening as the mid-level height falls overspread the region. Strengthening vertical shear with the arrival of the jet streaks will favor supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. Some tornado threat could materialize across central ND during the evening hours as low-level shear strengths in response to an intensifying low-level jet.

### Day5/Wednesday

The ensembles depict the elongation of a prominent, western U.S. trough into the northern Plains, with an associated jet extension stretching into the upper MS Valley. That notion is confirmed by the majority of deterministic models, which indicate a significant short-wave trough and associated mid/upper-level jets moving through the northern and central Plains. At the surface, there is good agreement between the deterministic models and ensemble member clustering that the primary surface low initially over central SD Wednesday morning will develop north-northeast through the ND-MN Red River Valley into southeast Manitoba, while a trailing cold front advances through the eastern Dakotas into the upper MS Valley, mid MO Valley, and central High Plains.

Steep lapse rates and a very moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate to strong instability across the warm sector by mid afternoon, with initial thunderstorm development anticipated along the front from the eastern Dakotas into western MN. Subsequent storm initiation appears likely southwestward along the front through the mid MO Valley into the central Plains. While there is some model signal that the deep-layer shear vectors may only cross the surface frontal zone at a small angle, sufficient bulk shear magnitudes will exist to support supercells and bowing structures amidst potentially more complex/messy storm modes. All severe-weather hazards are possible, with that threat quickly spreading through the upper MS Valley into the upper Midwest Wednesday evening into night.

Should subsequent model runs remain consistent with current trends, a 30% unconditional probability contour may be included in the next forecast update.

### Day 6/Thursday

Both the ensemble mean and deterministic models indicate the development of a prominent mid-level low over Manitoba or northwest Ontario, with a belt of unseasonably strong mid-level flow stretching from the northern or central Plains into the Great Lakes. At the surface, ensemble member clustering and the deterministic models indicate the primary low pressure over northwest Ontario with a trailing cold front stretching from the upper Midwest through the mid MS Valley into southern Plains.

While mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be weaker than in previous days, the presence of a moist air mass will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon within the warm sector. Strong to potentially severe storms appear possible from the upper Midwest into Great Lakes southwest into the OH and mid MS Valleys during the afternoon and evening hours. The models suggest that the strongest deep-layer shear may lag the surface warm sector to the immediate west, which casts some uncertainty on the extent of the severe-weather threat. As such, no area will be delineated in this forecast.

### Days 7-8/Friday and Saturday

The ensemble mean solutions suggest a gradual deamplification of the north-central CONUS trough, with a belt of stronger mid-level flow stretching from the northern Plains through the Great Lakes. At the surface, there is considerable variability in the position of any relevant frontal systems that might focus strong to severe storm development.

..Mead.. 06/06/2026

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Outlook for Friday, June 12

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060843 SPC AC 060843

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

DISCUSSION

Day4/Tuesday

Latest model guidance remains in good agreement in depicting the progression of a short-wave trough and associated mid/upper-level jet streaks into the northern High Plains Tuesday afternoon and evening, with downstream height falls overspreading the Dakotas. At the surface, a lee cyclone over eastern MT Tuesday afternoon is expected to develop north-northeast through western ND, while a trailing cold front edges east into the western Dakotas.

Steep low/mid-level lapse rates coupled with boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s are expected to contribute to moderate to strong instability across the warm sector, supporting vigorous thunderstorm development by late afternoon into evening as the mid-level height falls overspread the region. Strengthening vertical shear with the arrival of the jet streaks will favor supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. Some tornado threat could materialize across central ND during the evening hours as low-level shear strengths in response to an intensifying low-level jet.

### Day5/Wednesday

The ensembles depict the elongation of a prominent, western U.S. trough into the northern Plains, with an associated jet extension stretching into the upper MS Valley. That notion is confirmed by the majority of deterministic models, which indicate a significant short-wave trough and associated mid/upper-level jets moving through the northern and central Plains. At the surface, there is good agreement between the deterministic models and ensemble member clustering that the primary surface low initially over central SD Wednesday morning will develop north-northeast through the ND-MN Red River Valley into southeast Manitoba, while a trailing cold front advances through the eastern Dakotas into the upper MS Valley, mid MO Valley, and central High Plains.

Steep lapse rates and a very moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate to strong instability across the warm sector by mid afternoon, with initial thunderstorm development anticipated along the front from the eastern Dakotas into western MN. Subsequent storm initiation appears likely southwestward along the front through the mid MO Valley into the central Plains. While there is some model signal that the deep-layer shear vectors may only cross the surface frontal zone at a small angle, sufficient bulk shear magnitudes will exist to support supercells and bowing structures amidst potentially more complex/messy storm modes. All severe-weather hazards are possible, with that threat quickly spreading through the upper MS Valley into the upper Midwest Wednesday evening into night.

Should subsequent model runs remain consistent with current trends, a 30% unconditional probability contour may be included in the next forecast update.

### Day 6/Thursday

Both the ensemble mean and deterministic models indicate the development of a prominent mid-level low over Manitoba or northwest Ontario, with a belt of unseasonably strong mid-level flow stretching from the northern or central Plains into the Great Lakes. At the surface, ensemble member clustering and the deterministic models indicate the primary low pressure over northwest Ontario with a trailing cold front stretching from the upper Midwest through the mid MS Valley into southern Plains.

While mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be weaker than in previous days, the presence of a moist air mass will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon within the warm sector. Strong to potentially severe storms appear possible from the upper Midwest into Great Lakes southwest into the OH and mid MS Valleys during the afternoon and evening hours. The models suggest that the strongest deep-layer shear may lag the surface warm sector to the immediate west, which casts some uncertainty on the extent of the severe-weather threat. As such, no area will be delineated in this forecast.

### Days 7-8/Friday and Saturday

The ensemble mean solutions suggest a gradual deamplification of the north-central CONUS trough, with a belt of stronger mid-level flow stretching from the northern Plains through the Great Lakes. At the surface, there is considerable variability in the position of any relevant frontal systems that might focus strong to severe storm development.

..Mead.. 06/06/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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---

 

Outlook for Saturday, June 13

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060843 SPC AC 060843

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

DISCUSSION

Day4/Tuesday

Latest model guidance remains in good agreement in depicting the progression of a short-wave trough and associated mid/upper-level jet streaks into the northern High Plains Tuesday afternoon and evening, with downstream height falls overspreading the Dakotas. At the surface, a lee cyclone over eastern MT Tuesday afternoon is expected to develop north-northeast through western ND, while a trailing cold front edges east into the western Dakotas.

Steep low/mid-level lapse rates coupled with boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s are expected to contribute to moderate to strong instability across the warm sector, supporting vigorous thunderstorm development by late afternoon into evening as the mid-level height falls overspread the region. Strengthening vertical shear with the arrival of the jet streaks will favor supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. Some tornado threat could materialize across central ND during the evening hours as low-level shear strengths in response to an intensifying low-level jet.

### Day5/Wednesday

The ensembles depict the elongation of a prominent, western U.S. trough into the northern Plains, with an associated jet extension stretching into the upper MS Valley. That notion is confirmed by the majority of deterministic models, which indicate a significant short-wave trough and associated mid/upper-level jets moving through the northern and central Plains. At the surface, there is good agreement between the deterministic models and ensemble member clustering that the primary surface low initially over central SD Wednesday morning will develop north-northeast through the ND-MN Red River Valley into southeast Manitoba, while a trailing cold front advances through the eastern Dakotas into the upper MS Valley, mid MO Valley, and central High Plains.

Steep lapse rates and a very moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate to strong instability across the warm sector by mid afternoon, with initial thunderstorm development anticipated along the front from the eastern Dakotas into western MN. Subsequent storm initiation appears likely southwestward along the front through the mid MO Valley into the central Plains. While there is some model signal that the deep-layer shear vectors may only cross the surface frontal zone at a small angle, sufficient bulk shear magnitudes will exist to support supercells and bowing structures amidst potentially more complex/messy storm modes. All severe-weather hazards are possible, with that threat quickly spreading through the upper MS Valley into the upper Midwest Wednesday evening into night.

Should subsequent model runs remain consistent with current trends, a 30% unconditional probability contour may be included in the next forecast update.

### Day 6/Thursday

Both the ensemble mean and deterministic models indicate the development of a prominent mid-level low over Manitoba or northwest Ontario, with a belt of unseasonably strong mid-level flow stretching from the northern or central Plains into the Great Lakes. At the surface, ensemble member clustering and the deterministic models indicate the primary low pressure over northwest Ontario with a trailing cold front stretching from the upper Midwest through the mid MS Valley into southern Plains.

While mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be weaker than in previous days, the presence of a moist air mass will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon within the warm sector. Strong to potentially severe storms appear possible from the upper Midwest into Great Lakes southwest into the OH and mid MS Valleys during the afternoon and evening hours. The models suggest that the strongest deep-layer shear may lag the surface warm sector to the immediate west, which casts some uncertainty on the extent of the severe-weather threat. As such, no area will be delineated in this forecast.

### Days 7-8/Friday and Saturday

The ensemble mean solutions suggest a gradual deamplification of the north-central CONUS trough, with a belt of stronger mid-level flow stretching from the northern Plains through the Great Lakes. At the surface, there is considerable variability in the position of any relevant frontal systems that might focus strong to severe storm development.

..Mead.. 06/06/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Saturday, June 6

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 45%

Sunday, June 7

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 30%

Monday, June 8

ANY SEVERE: 5%

Tuesday, June 9

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Wednesday, June 10

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Thursday, June 11

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, June 12

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Saturday, June 13

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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