Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Tuesday, May 5

Outlook Summary

Widely scattered severe storms are possible Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night from northeast Texas into western Tennessee, with the main threat centered over Arkansas. The strongest storms will be capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. More isolated, strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Northeast.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 050536

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS AND EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE

### SUMMARY

Widely scattered severe storms are possible Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night from northeast Texas into western Tennessee, with the main threat centered over Arkansas. The strongest storms will be capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. More isolated, strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Northeast.

Synopsis

A vigorous, mid-level low over Ontario this evening is forecast to evolve into an open wave while translating east into Quebec on Tuesday. An accompanying belt of strong, mid/upper-level winds will overspread the lower Great Lakes and northern New England in tandem with modest height falls related to a vorticity maximum pivoting through the base of the parent system. Elsewhere, a mid-level low currently along the CA coast is expected to weaken while shifting through the lower-CO Valley to the vicinity of the Four Corners region. A belt of 50-70 kt winds at 500 mb are forecast downstream from that feature, extending from the southern Plains into the Mid South on Tuesday afternoon into evening.

In the low levels, a cold front is expected to extend from southeast Quebec through the OH and mid-MS Valleys to low pressure over OK Tuesday morning. The northern extension of the boundary will move into the lower Great Lakes and northern New England during the peak of the diurnal heating cycle. The segment of the front across the Ozarks and Ozark Plateau may be temporarily displaced to the south Tuesday morning due to overnight thunderstorm activity. However by afternoon, the front is expected to refocus in the vicinity of the MO-AR border, ahead of a weakening surface low moving through eastern OK into western AR. The western extension of the cold front trailing the surface low is expected to advance southeast through the Red River Valley.

Northeast Texas into the southern Missouri and western Tennessee

As mentioned in the synopsis, a complex of thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the forecast period across portions of MO into northern AR. That activity is expected to shift east of the area by late morning or early afternoon, with some lingering shower and thunderstorm development occurring to the north of the front in central MO. In the wake of the early-day convection, HREF cloud forecasts indicate the potential for considerable high-level clouds and pockets of thicker low-cloudiness, which could limit the potential for stronger diabatic warming within the pre-frontal air mass. Nonetheless, the presence of boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s in conjunction with an elevated-mixed layer (EML) plume will support a moderately unstable air mass by afternoon with MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg.

Neutral to slight height rises are forecast in the mid levels during the peak of the diurnal heating cycle with model forecast soundings indicating considerable capping at the base of the EML. As such, eventual storm coverage remains uncertain. The 00z high-resolution models suggest that isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will become increasingly likely by late afternoon or early evening along the frontal segment along the MO-AR border, immediately east/northeast of the surface low. Additional, isolated storm development also appears possible from the vicinity of the surface low southwest along the cold front into northeast TX, mainly during the evening hours.

The favorable overlap of moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear will favor supercell storm modes, especially given the anticipated weak forcing for ascent. Large hail will be the predominant severe-weather hazard initially. A few tornadoes appear possible across portions of northern AR, potentially into western TN from late afternoon through the evening association with any sustained supercells. Here, the presence of a 35-40 kt low-level jet will yield effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2 amidst a moist/low-LCL environment. Storms may eventually grow upscale into clusters, at which point damaging winds would become a growing concern.

Lower Great Lakes into northern New England

Moisture advection occurring along a southwesterly low-level jet will allow dewpoints to rise into the 50s within the pre-frontal warm sector on Tuesday. And while mid-level lapse rates are not expected to be particularly steep, the moisture increase combined with daytime heating and the resultant steepening of low-level lapse rates will result in MLCAPE of 500 to perhaps 1000 J/kg. Increasing height falls aloft and convergence/lift along the cold front are expected to support surface-based storm development by early afternoon within the destabilizing air mass across portions of upstate NY. The storms will quickly overspread northern portions of VT, NH, and ME during the afternoon into early evening.

The 00z high-resolution models indicate the potential for transient supercell and bowing structures, which appears reasonable given the presence of a relatively strong, deep-layer wind field. In that scenario, isolated occurrences of damaging winds and perhaps some marginally severe hail appear possible. The tornado threat will be conditional on sufficient instability to support more sustained supercell structures. A level 1/Marginal Risk will be maintained; however, if it becomes apparent that stronger instability will develop than is currently anticipated, an upgraded to level 2/Slight Risk may become necessary.

..Mead/Lyons.. 05/05/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, May 6

Outlook Summary

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Wednesday afternoon and evening across portions of Texas into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys/southern Appalachians. Damaging winds, large hail, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 050507

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TX TO THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS

### SUMMARY

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Wednesday afternoon and evening across portions of Texas into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys/southern Appalachians. Damaging winds, large hail, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible.

Synopsis

A positive-tilt large-scale upper trough will extend from the Upper Great Lakes to the Southwest early Wednesday. The southern extent of the trough will develop east toward the southern High Plains to northwest Mexico by Thursday morning. Strong mid/upper southwesterly flow ahead of the trough will overspread much of the southern and eastern U.S. At the surface, a cold front will extend from the upper Ohio Valley to central TX during the morning. The front is expected to develop south/southeast through the period, becoming oriented from the southern Mid-Atlantic to South TX by Thursday morning. Ahead of the front, rich Gulf moisture will be in place across TX into the Lower MS and TN Valleys, decreasing with northeast extent into parts of the southern Appalachians.

Northern TN Valley and southern Appalachians

Forecast guidance varies, but some showers/thunderstorms may be ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of AR into northern parts of the TN Valley within a warm advection regime on the nose a gradually weakening low-level jet. This activity will likely play some role in destabilization later in the day across parts of the TN Valley into the southern Appalachians vicinity. Nevertheless, strong deep-layer shear and a moist boundary layer will be sufficient for at least some severe risk, including damaging wind gusts and perhaps hail. Some tornado risk could also materialize given favorable low-level shear and 0-1 km SRH increasing to greater than 250 m2/s2 during the afternoon/evening. However, this is less certain given aforementioned instability issues and later storm timing into the southern Appalachians.

TX to MS/AL

Further south from northeast TX into MS/AL, strong destabilization is forecast where deep boundary layer moisture and stronger daytime heating occurs. MLCAPE in the 2000-3000 J/kg range appear possible in particular across northern LA into MS. Midlevel southwesterly flow is expected to increase by late afternoon into the evening as early capping will be overcome as the surface front begins to develop south/southeast. Convection along the cold front may quickly transition to linear/bowing segments given deep shear parallel to the surface boundary. However, low-level flow in latest model guidance does not appear to be overly veered, especially near northern LA into MS. Forecast hodographs indicate enlarged, favorably curved hodographs across this area. If open warm sector supercells develop, a risk for tornadoes (perhaps a couple strong tornadoes) will be possible. Furthermore, steepening midlevel lapse rates are evident in forecast soundings, along with elongated/straight hodographs and 45+ kt effective shear magnitudes. This indicates any semi-discrete supercells could pose a risk for large to very large hail. With time during the evening/nighttime hours, convection should generally congeal into a line or bowing MCS and spread eastward across the TN Valley toward the southern Appalachians, posing a risk for damaging gusts. Higher tornado and hail probabilities were considered across parts of the Lower MS Valley, however, given uncertainty in storm mode and coverage of discrete supercells, will hold at level 2 (Slight) risk for now.

Across portions of central TX overnight, some guidance suggests convection may develop within low-level warm advection as the western extent of the surface cold front dives southward across the Edward Plateau vicinity. If storms develop, they would likely be elevated. Nevertheless, a hail risk could materialize within the conditional scenario late in the forecast period.

..Leitman.. 05/05/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Thursday, May 7

Outlook Summary

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across portions of the central Gulf coast into South Carolina.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 050640

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO SOUTH CAROLINA

### SUMMARY

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across portions of the central Gulf coast into South Carolina.

Gulf coast to SC

A large upper trough will pivot over the eastern U.S. on Thursday. Strong west/southwesterly deep-layer flow will be in place across the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front will develop south/southeast across portions of south TX, the central Gulf coast states and the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic vicinity. A seasonally moist airmass will be in place ahead of the boundary, and some risk for strong to severe storms will exist near the progressing cold front from southern MS/AL into SC.

There is some uncertainty regarding the position of the cold front Thursday morning. The NAM is faster compared to the GFS and ECMWF. Nevertheless, rich Gulf moisture ahead of the boundary will support at least modest destabilization. Convection will likely be ongoing near the front Thursday morning. Redevelopment or intensification into midday and through the afternoon appears plausible given strong deep-layer flow within the modestly unstable airmass. Clusters and linear convection appear most likely, with an attendant risk of damaging wind.

South TX

Severe potential across south TX is uncertain and will depend on cold frontal position Thursday morning. If southward progress of the front is slowly, some risk of severe could develop across south TX where 70s dewpoints and daytime heating could support strong instability. If storms develop, a risk for hail appears possible. However, some forecast guidance surges the cold front southward across the region during the morning and maintains capping through the day. Low confidence precludes severe probabilities at this time.

..Leitman.. 05/05/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Friday, May 8

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050732 SPC AC 050732

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

DISCUSSION

Mean upper troughing will persist east of the Rockies for the Day 4-8 period. This will largely suppress northward transport of Gulf moisture, except periodically across the southern Plains and Southeast/Gulf coast states. Severe potential is expected to be low on Day 4/Fri as surface high pressure dominates in the wake of a prior cold frontal passage offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts. On Day 5/Sat, lee troughing will allow for increasing south/southeasterly low-level flow across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley, aiding in moisture return across these areas. This could result in thunderstorm potential across the south-central U.S., but severe potential is limited given a lack of stronger forcing for ascent. By Days 6-7/Sun-Mon, another cold front is forecast to move east/southeast across much of the U.S. east of the Rockies. As the front impinges on a moist airmass across the southern Plains to the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, some severe potential could develop. However, mid to upper-level flow is not forecast to be overly strong and medium range guidance varies quite a bit with respect to moisture and cold front timing, resulting in low predictability.

..Leitman.. 05/05/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, May 9

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Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050732 SPC AC 050732

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

DISCUSSION

Mean upper troughing will persist east of the Rockies for the Day 4-8 period. This will largely suppress northward transport of Gulf moisture, except periodically across the southern Plains and Southeast/Gulf coast states. Severe potential is expected to be low on Day 4/Fri as surface high pressure dominates in the wake of a prior cold frontal passage offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts. On Day 5/Sat, lee troughing will allow for increasing south/southeasterly low-level flow across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley, aiding in moisture return across these areas. This could result in thunderstorm potential across the south-central U.S., but severe potential is limited given a lack of stronger forcing for ascent. By Days 6-7/Sun-Mon, another cold front is forecast to move east/southeast across much of the U.S. east of the Rockies. As the front impinges on a moist airmass across the southern Plains to the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, some severe potential could develop. However, mid to upper-level flow is not forecast to be overly strong and medium range guidance varies quite a bit with respect to moisture and cold front timing, resulting in low predictability.

..Leitman.. 05/05/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, May 10

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050732 SPC AC 050732

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

DISCUSSION

Mean upper troughing will persist east of the Rockies for the Day 4-8 period. This will largely suppress northward transport of Gulf moisture, except periodically across the southern Plains and Southeast/Gulf coast states. Severe potential is expected to be low on Day 4/Fri as surface high pressure dominates in the wake of a prior cold frontal passage offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts. On Day 5/Sat, lee troughing will allow for increasing south/southeasterly low-level flow across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley, aiding in moisture return across these areas. This could result in thunderstorm potential across the south-central U.S., but severe potential is limited given a lack of stronger forcing for ascent. By Days 6-7/Sun-Mon, another cold front is forecast to move east/southeast across much of the U.S. east of the Rockies. As the front impinges on a moist airmass across the southern Plains to the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, some severe potential could develop. However, mid to upper-level flow is not forecast to be overly strong and medium range guidance varies quite a bit with respect to moisture and cold front timing, resulting in low predictability.

..Leitman.. 05/05/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, May 11

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050732 SPC AC 050732

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

DISCUSSION

Mean upper troughing will persist east of the Rockies for the Day 4-8 period. This will largely suppress northward transport of Gulf moisture, except periodically across the southern Plains and Southeast/Gulf coast states. Severe potential is expected to be low on Day 4/Fri as surface high pressure dominates in the wake of a prior cold frontal passage offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts. On Day 5/Sat, lee troughing will allow for increasing south/southeasterly low-level flow across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley, aiding in moisture return across these areas. This could result in thunderstorm potential across the south-central U.S., but severe potential is limited given a lack of stronger forcing for ascent. By Days 6-7/Sun-Mon, another cold front is forecast to move east/southeast across much of the U.S. east of the Rockies. As the front impinges on a moist airmass across the southern Plains to the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, some severe potential could develop. However, mid to upper-level flow is not forecast to be overly strong and medium range guidance varies quite a bit with respect to moisture and cold front timing, resulting in low predictability.

..Leitman.. 05/05/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, May 12

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050732 SPC AC 050732

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

DISCUSSION

Mean upper troughing will persist east of the Rockies for the Day 4-8 period. This will largely suppress northward transport of Gulf moisture, except periodically across the southern Plains and Southeast/Gulf coast states. Severe potential is expected to be low on Day 4/Fri as surface high pressure dominates in the wake of a prior cold frontal passage offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts. On Day 5/Sat, lee troughing will allow for increasing south/southeasterly low-level flow across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley, aiding in moisture return across these areas. This could result in thunderstorm potential across the south-central U.S., but severe potential is limited given a lack of stronger forcing for ascent. By Days 6-7/Sun-Mon, another cold front is forecast to move east/southeast across much of the U.S. east of the Rockies. As the front impinges on a moist airmass across the southern Plains to the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, some severe potential could develop. However, mid to upper-level flow is not forecast to be overly strong and medium range guidance varies quite a bit with respect to moisture and cold front timing, resulting in low predictability.

..Leitman.. 05/05/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Tuesday, May 5

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Wednesday, May 6

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Thursday, May 7

ANY SEVERE: 5%

Friday, May 8

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Saturday, May 9

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Sunday, May 10

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Monday, May 11

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Tuesday, May 12

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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