Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Thursday, April 9

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts are expected late this afternoon and evening across parts of Kansas, southeast Nebraska, and northwest Missouri. Isolated severe thunderstorms may also occur across portions of the south-central High Plains and northern California/southwest Oregon.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 091628

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026

Valid 091630Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts are expected late this afternoon and evening across parts of Kansas, southeast Nebraska, and northwest Missouri. Isolated severe thunderstorms may also occur across portions of the south-central High Plains and northern California/southwest Oregon.

Southern High Plains into the Central Plains and Lower/Mid Missouri Valley

Ongoing precipitation/thunderstorms and related cloud cover across north-central/northeast KS into southeast NE/southwest IA is being aided by modest low-level warm/moist advection in the vicinity of a surface front. Current expectations are for this activity to gradually diminish in coverage as it shifts eastward into the northwest MO/southern IA. In its wake, daytime heating may be hampered a bit by residual cloudiness across much of north-central/northeast KS. Even so, continued northward low-level moisture advection is anticipated across the southern/central Plains through the afternoon, with surface dewpoints generally in the upper 40s to low/mid 50s. This, coupled with steep mid-level lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft, will aid in the development of moderate instability (MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg) along/south of a front draped generally west to east across northern KS/MO.

Stronger ascent aloft and enhanced westerly flow at mid/upper levels will remain mostly displaced to the north of the central Plains today, as multiple mid-level perturbations rotate through mean mid/upper-level troughing over central/eastern Canada. Still, most guidance continues to suggest that minimal MLCIN will exist in the vicinity of the front in north-central/northeast KS and southeast NE by 22-23Z as surface temperatures warm into the 70s/low 80s. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across this area by late afternoon/early evening, with modest south-southwesterly low-level winds veering to west-northwesterly at mid/upper levels supporting 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear.

Initial convective development will likely be supercellular and pose a threat for mainly large hail (isolated 2+ inches in diameter possible). Fairly large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads with a well-mixed boundary layer and related high cloud bases render considerable uncertainty regarding tornado potential. But, some risk for a tornado or two may focus along/near the front through early evening as effective SRH gradually increases in tandem with a strengthening south-southwesterly low-level jet. Otherwise, the risk for severe/damaging winds may gradually increase through mid evening as thunderstorms tend to cluster/grow modestly upscale. But, the severe wind risk will likely become more limited by late evening with the loss of daytime heating and increasing MLCIN with southward/eastward extent.

Isolated thunderstorms may also develop this afternoon farther southwest across the central/southern High Plains along and east of a sharpening surface dryline/lee trough. Overall convective coverage remains highly uncertain given nebulous/weak large-scale ascent this far south. Still, some risk for occasional hail and severe gusts should exist with any sustained cells or clusters that can develop and spread east-southeastward through the late afternoon/early evening.

Northern California/Southwest Oregon

As an upper-level low over the eastern Pacific approaches the West Coast today, large-scale ascent will overspread portions of northern CA into southern OR with scattered thunderstorm development expected into afternoon. Sufficient moisture and instability should exist inland beneath strengthening deep-layer southwesterly winds ahead of the trough to support semi-organized convection. As low-level lapse rates gradually steepen and flow aloft increases, this activity may be capable of producing isolated strong to severe gusts and possibly some hail.

..Gleason/Wendt.. 04/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

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Outlook for Friday, April 10

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible on Friday over parts of the southern and central Plains eastward into the Ozarks. A couple strong storms may occur late from northern Nevada into southwest Idaho.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 091722

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO EASTWARD TOWARD THE OZARKS

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible on Friday over parts of the southern and central Plains eastward into the Ozarks. A couple strong storms may occur late from northern Nevada into southwest Idaho.

Synopsis

An upper trough will progress from the Great Lakes region into the Northeast, with temporary ridging across the Plains. To the west, a large-scale upper trough will develop, with a lead wave moving into the Great Basin overnight while a deeper upper low drops south off the West Coast. Despite the ridging over the Plains, midlevel temperatures will remain seasonably cool with around -14 C over KS.

At the surface, high pressure will move from the northern Plains toward the Great Lakes, with a cold front moving across the Northeast and into the OH Valley. Farther west, this front will decelerate from southern MO into northern OK, and become a warm front overnight into southern KS. Elsewhere, a surface trough will develop from ID into NV as height falls occur late.

From northeast NM eastward across southern KS and northern OK

Showers and storms may be ongoing Friday morning from southeast KS into northern OK, southwest MO and into northwest AR, with perhaps some strong gust potential. This activity may weaken during the day. To the west, strong heating will occur south of the main boundary, with 50 F to near 60 F dewpoints resulting in 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE. Backed surface winds near the boundary will likely aid storm development into northeast NM late in the afternoon, with activity moving into the OK/TX Panhandles during the evening. Activity will be slow moving, with localized hail or wind potential.

Northwest NV into southwest ID

Strong heating beneath cool midlevel temperatures will result in steep lapse rates across the region as the upper trough gradually approaches. Deep-layer shear will be weak during the day but will increase to 35-40 kt by evening as height falls arrive. Given the later influence of the upper trough and marginal combination of shear and instability, will maintain no severe probabilities at this time. However, a cell or two could produce locally strong gusts or small/marginal hail into the evening.

..Jewell.. 04/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Saturday, April 11

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible on Saturday across parts of west Texas and far eastern New Mexico. A marginal severe threat will also be possible across parts of the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 090714

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible on Saturday across parts of west Texas and far eastern New Mexico. A marginal severe threat will also be possible across parts of the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley.

Southern High Plains

Mid-level southwesterly flow will gradually strengthen across the south-central U.S. on Saturday, as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves northeastward into the southern High Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place over much of southern and central Plains, with surface dewpoints from the mid 50s to mid 60s F. A surface trough over far eastern New Mexico will be a focus for convective development as surface temperatures warm during the day. Large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave trough will support scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening over much of the southern High Plains. MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 1200 to 1500 J/kg range over west Texas, where 0-3 km lapse rates should reach 7.5 and 8 C/km in the late afternoon. This will be favorable for severe wind gusts. In addition, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be between 30 and 40 knots over much of the southern High Plains suggesting that supercells with large hail will be possible. Severe threat coverage may peak in the early to mid evening, especially if an MCS can organize over parts of west-central Texas.

Central Plains/Mid Missouri Valley

An upper-level ridge will move eastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley Saturday afternoon, as southwesterly mid-level flow becomes established over much of the north-central U.S. At the surface, a trough will deepen during the day across the central High Plains, with moisture advection continuing over the central Plains and Missouri Valley. Weak instability is expected to develop over much of this airmass by afternoon. Although large-scale ascent will remain limited, isolated thunderstorms will be possible in areas where low-level convergence and surface heating become maximized. Model forecasts suggest that enough deep-layer shear will be in place for a marginal severe threat, with hail and isolated severe gusts possible.

..Broyles.. 04/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Sunday, April 12

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Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090858 SPC AC 090858

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Sunday/Day 4 to Tuesday/Day 6

On Sunday, southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the nation. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located from the southern Plains north-northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Much of this corridor is forecast to become moderately unstable by afternoon. The greatest potential for severe storms will likely be in the southern and central Plains, where some solutions have a subtle shortwave trough. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will be favorable for supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts.

Mid-level flow is forecast to gradually strengthen across the central U.S. on Monday. In response moisture advection will continue in the Great Plains. By Monday afternoon, moderate instability should be in place from north Texas northward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across this airmass Monday afternoon and evening. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will again be favorable for severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. A tornado threat may also develop.

On Tuesday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the southern Rockies, as an associated mid-level jet streak ejects northeastward across the southern High Plains. A moderately unstable airmass will likely be in place by afternoon from the southern Plains northeastward into mid to upper Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes. Strong deep-layer shear is forecast over the southern and central Plains, where a substantial severe threat will be possible. Supercells with large hail, wind damage and tornadoes are expected Tuesday afternoon and evening. An upgrade will be possible across parts of the threat area, once confidence increases on the timing of the ejecting trough.

Wednesday/Day 7 and Thursday/Day 8

The upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. on Wednesday, as a cold front advances southeastward through the Great Plains and Upper Midwest. Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of much of the front. Thunderstorms that form in areas that destabilize sufficiently could have a severe threat. The severe potential will likely continue into Thursday, as the front advances southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. However, model spread concerning the position of the front and timing of the trough increases substantially toward mid week, suggesting a lot of uncertainty exists at this extended range in the period.

..Broyles.. 04/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, April 13

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Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090858 SPC AC 090858

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Sunday/Day 4 to Tuesday/Day 6

On Sunday, southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the nation. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located from the southern Plains north-northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Much of this corridor is forecast to become moderately unstable by afternoon. The greatest potential for severe storms will likely be in the southern and central Plains, where some solutions have a subtle shortwave trough. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will be favorable for supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts.

Mid-level flow is forecast to gradually strengthen across the central U.S. on Monday. In response moisture advection will continue in the Great Plains. By Monday afternoon, moderate instability should be in place from north Texas northward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across this airmass Monday afternoon and evening. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will again be favorable for severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. A tornado threat may also develop.

On Tuesday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the southern Rockies, as an associated mid-level jet streak ejects northeastward across the southern High Plains. A moderately unstable airmass will likely be in place by afternoon from the southern Plains northeastward into mid to upper Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes. Strong deep-layer shear is forecast over the southern and central Plains, where a substantial severe threat will be possible. Supercells with large hail, wind damage and tornadoes are expected Tuesday afternoon and evening. An upgrade will be possible across parts of the threat area, once confidence increases on the timing of the ejecting trough.

Wednesday/Day 7 and Thursday/Day 8

The upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. on Wednesday, as a cold front advances southeastward through the Great Plains and Upper Midwest. Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of much of the front. Thunderstorms that form in areas that destabilize sufficiently could have a severe threat. The severe potential will likely continue into Thursday, as the front advances southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. However, model spread concerning the position of the front and timing of the trough increases substantially toward mid week, suggesting a lot of uncertainty exists at this extended range in the period.

..Broyles.. 04/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, April 14

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Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090858 SPC AC 090858

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Sunday/Day 4 to Tuesday/Day 6

On Sunday, southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the nation. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located from the southern Plains north-northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Much of this corridor is forecast to become moderately unstable by afternoon. The greatest potential for severe storms will likely be in the southern and central Plains, where some solutions have a subtle shortwave trough. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will be favorable for supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts.

Mid-level flow is forecast to gradually strengthen across the central U.S. on Monday. In response moisture advection will continue in the Great Plains. By Monday afternoon, moderate instability should be in place from north Texas northward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across this airmass Monday afternoon and evening. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will again be favorable for severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. A tornado threat may also develop.

On Tuesday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the southern Rockies, as an associated mid-level jet streak ejects northeastward across the southern High Plains. A moderately unstable airmass will likely be in place by afternoon from the southern Plains northeastward into mid to upper Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes. Strong deep-layer shear is forecast over the southern and central Plains, where a substantial severe threat will be possible. Supercells with large hail, wind damage and tornadoes are expected Tuesday afternoon and evening. An upgrade will be possible across parts of the threat area, once confidence increases on the timing of the ejecting trough.

Wednesday/Day 7 and Thursday/Day 8

The upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. on Wednesday, as a cold front advances southeastward through the Great Plains and Upper Midwest. Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of much of the front. Thunderstorms that form in areas that destabilize sufficiently could have a severe threat. The severe potential will likely continue into Thursday, as the front advances southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. However, model spread concerning the position of the front and timing of the trough increases substantially toward mid week, suggesting a lot of uncertainty exists at this extended range in the period.

..Broyles.. 04/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, April 15

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090858 SPC AC 090858

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Sunday/Day 4 to Tuesday/Day 6

On Sunday, southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the nation. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located from the southern Plains north-northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Much of this corridor is forecast to become moderately unstable by afternoon. The greatest potential for severe storms will likely be in the southern and central Plains, where some solutions have a subtle shortwave trough. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will be favorable for supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts.

Mid-level flow is forecast to gradually strengthen across the central U.S. on Monday. In response moisture advection will continue in the Great Plains. By Monday afternoon, moderate instability should be in place from north Texas northward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across this airmass Monday afternoon and evening. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will again be favorable for severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. A tornado threat may also develop.

On Tuesday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the southern Rockies, as an associated mid-level jet streak ejects northeastward across the southern High Plains. A moderately unstable airmass will likely be in place by afternoon from the southern Plains northeastward into mid to upper Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes. Strong deep-layer shear is forecast over the southern and central Plains, where a substantial severe threat will be possible. Supercells with large hail, wind damage and tornadoes are expected Tuesday afternoon and evening. An upgrade will be possible across parts of the threat area, once confidence increases on the timing of the ejecting trough.

Wednesday/Day 7 and Thursday/Day 8

The upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. on Wednesday, as a cold front advances southeastward through the Great Plains and Upper Midwest. Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of much of the front. Thunderstorms that form in areas that destabilize sufficiently could have a severe threat. The severe potential will likely continue into Thursday, as the front advances southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. However, model spread concerning the position of the front and timing of the trough increases substantially toward mid week, suggesting a lot of uncertainty exists at this extended range in the period.

..Broyles.. 04/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Thursday, April 16

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090858 SPC AC 090858

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Sunday/Day 4 to Tuesday/Day 6

On Sunday, southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the nation. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located from the southern Plains north-northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Much of this corridor is forecast to become moderately unstable by afternoon. The greatest potential for severe storms will likely be in the southern and central Plains, where some solutions have a subtle shortwave trough. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will be favorable for supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts.

Mid-level flow is forecast to gradually strengthen across the central U.S. on Monday. In response moisture advection will continue in the Great Plains. By Monday afternoon, moderate instability should be in place from north Texas northward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across this airmass Monday afternoon and evening. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will again be favorable for severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. A tornado threat may also develop.

On Tuesday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the southern Rockies, as an associated mid-level jet streak ejects northeastward across the southern High Plains. A moderately unstable airmass will likely be in place by afternoon from the southern Plains northeastward into mid to upper Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes. Strong deep-layer shear is forecast over the southern and central Plains, where a substantial severe threat will be possible. Supercells with large hail, wind damage and tornadoes are expected Tuesday afternoon and evening. An upgrade will be possible across parts of the threat area, once confidence increases on the timing of the ejecting trough.

Wednesday/Day 7 and Thursday/Day 8

The upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. on Wednesday, as a cold front advances southeastward through the Great Plains and Upper Midwest. Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of much of the front. Thunderstorms that form in areas that destabilize sufficiently could have a severe threat. The severe potential will likely continue into Thursday, as the front advances southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. However, model spread concerning the position of the front and timing of the trough increases substantially toward mid week, suggesting a lot of uncertainty exists at this extended range in the period.

..Broyles.. 04/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Thursday, April 9

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Friday, April 10

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 5%

Saturday, April 11

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Sunday, April 12

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Monday, April 13

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Tuesday, April 14

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Wednesday, April 15

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Thursday, April 16

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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