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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Wednesday, April 22

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms with hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible across parts of the High Plains this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible in parts of northeast Indiana and Ohio.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 220554

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND FROM NORTHEAST INDIANA INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OHIO

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms with hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible across parts of the High Plains this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible in parts of northeast Indiana and Ohio.

High Plains

At mid-levels today, heights will fall across much of the High Plains, as a ridge moves toward the Mississippi Valley and a trough moves through the Intermountain West. In response, a lee trough will sharpen across the High Plains. To the east of the surface trough, moisture advection will take place. Surface dewpoints will increase into the 55 to 60 F range to the east of a well-developed dryline extending from west Texas northward into southwest Nebraska. Although large-scale ascent will be weak along the dryline, low-level convergence will aid isolated convective initiation during the mid to late afternoon. The most favorable location for storm development will be from northwest Kansas into west-central Nebraska and southern South Dakota, as the low-level jet strengthens in the late afternoon and early evening. In addition to moderate instability, 0-6 km shear is forecast to increase into the 35 to 40 knot range by early evening. This, combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 8.5 to 9 C/km range should be favorable for supercells with isolated large hail, with the greatest potential from northwest Kansas into west-central Nebraska. A few severe wind gusts may also occur from western Kansas into South Dakota.

Further south into west Texas and the Oklahoma Panhandle, the lift supportive of convective development will be confined to weak low-level convergence along the dryline. If a storm can initiate, then a supercell could develop with potential for large hail.

Northeast Indiana/Central and Northern Ohio

A mid-level ridge will move into the upper Mississippi Valley today, as northwesterly mid-level flow persists over the Great Lakes region. At the surface, a slow-moving front will remain in place from southern Wisconsin eastward into southern Michigan. Scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon along and to the south of the front as surface temperatures warm and low-level convergence increases. Model forecasts in the mid to late afternoon from northeast Indiana into central and northern Ohio have MLCAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range, with 0-3 km lapse rates near 8.5 C/km. In addition, 0-6 km shear is forecast to approach 30 knots, which could be enough for a marginal severe threat. Isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible with the stronger multicells in areas that destabilize the most.

..Broyles/Chalmers.. 04/22/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Thursday, April 23

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms will be possible from southern Kansas into southern Minnesota on Thursday. Large hail to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 220600

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms will be possible from southern Kansas into southern Minnesota on Thursday. Large hail to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible.

Synopsis

A shortwave trough will move northeast along the eastern periphery of a western US longwave trough. This shortwave will help maintain a surface cyclone in southern Canada, while a secondary surface low may develop across southern Minnesota late in the period. A secondary shortwave will approach the southern Plains late in the forecast period.

As the shortwave trough lifts northeast, a cold front will accelerate east across the central and northern Plains. Ahead of the surface front southerly winds will support mid 50F dewpoints as far north as northern Minnesota and pockets of 60F dewpoints perhaps as far north as southern-to-central Minnesota.

Central and Northern Plains

Diurnal heating of the moist airmass ahead of the advancing surface front will yield an increasingly unstable atmosphere during the afternoon with the 20260422/00Z HREF showing ensemble mean SBCAPE values approaching 2000 J/kg as far north as the greater Omaha, NE, vicinity by 20Z. Interrogation of forecast soundings ahead of the frontal boundary shows a strong cap stretching from Oklahoma northward into Nebraska and Iowa. This cap does lift during the day in response to increasing large-scale ascent from the approaching trough, but thunderstorm initiation will likely require convergence along the surface front.

This should occur by mid-afternoon anywhere from northeast Kansas into southern Minnesota. Initially, deep-layer shear is not particularly strong across the warm sector, but would still support a combination of multi-cells and supercells. Given the degree of instability and steep midlevel lapse rates, large-to-very-large hail would be possible with any of these initial storms. A tornado or two would also be possible given some low-level curvature in the forecast hodographs associated with at least a modest low-level jet.

As the cold front continues to move east into the moist and unstable airmass, additional thunderstorms should develop along the front, eventually growing upscale into one or more linear systems and a transition to a damaging wind threat. Vertical shear should improve during the late afternoon and evening as the mid-to-upper-level winds respond to the approach trough, yielding a continued tornado threat with any persistent discrete cell.

Oklahoma and Northwest Texas

A very unstable airmass will develop across the region to the east of a dryline across western Oklahoma during the afternoon. Forecast soundings show varying degrees of a cap across Oklahoma and Northwest Texas. With the strongest large-scale ascent remaining largely to the north of the area, forcing for ascent will likely require strong dryline circulations. Given afternoon temperatures in the 90Fs to the west of the dryline, there is at least some potential for dryline circulations to break the cap and initiate at least a couple of storms. Vertical shear profiles will support supercells capable of very large hail. A highly conditional tornado threat could develop with any discrete storm that is able to move off the dryline and into the increasingly moist and unstable environment to the east.

..Marsh.. 04/22/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Friday, April 24

Outlook Summary

A few severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday. Large hail and damaging wind gusts should be the primary threats.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 220721

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY

### SUMMARY

A few severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday. Large hail and damaging wind gusts should be the primary threats.

Synopsis

A persistent longwave trough will remain situated across the northern US on Friday, maintaining a broad regime of cyclonic midlevel flow over the western two-thirds of the country. Within this broad flow, neutral to modest midlevel height rises are likely across the Southern Plains. This evolution suggests a lack of robust large-scale forcing for ascent, with subtle subsidence potentially acting as a limiting factor for widespread convective coverage.

Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley

At the start of the forecast period, convective activity may be ongoing across portions of northeast Oklahoma, southeast Kansas, southern Missouri, or northern Arkansas along a consolidated outflow boundary/cold front. These storms should slowly weaken during the morning with the loss of large-scale ascent and a weakening low-level jet. The outflow boundary/cold front should slowly sag south through the morning before stalling somewhere in the vicinity of the I40 corridor. This feature will serve as the primary focus for subsequent development later in the afternoon, with residual outflow or differential heating boundaries being a secondary source of initiation.

South of the frontal boundary, a highly unstable airmass will remain in place across the warm sector. Strong diabatic heating of a moist boundary layer will yield pockets of moderate-to-strong instability, with MUCAPE values potentially in the 2000-3000 J/kg range. While deep-layer shear is forecast to remain relatively modest (30-35 knots), the degree of instability will be sufficient to support robust updrafts.

Given the modest shear and lack of stronger synoptic support, storm modes will likely be multicell clusters or transient supercells. Any persistent cell will be capable of producing large hail and localized damaging wind gusts

Lower Mississippi Valley

Convection that develops across Oklahoma and Arkansas during the afternoon is expected to persist into the evening as it moves slowly east-southeast toward Mississippi and Tennessee. Although instability is not as great with eastward extent, it should remain sufficient enough to support some potential for sporadic wind and hail through the overnight hours.

..Marsh.. 04/22/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Saturday, April 25

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210859 SPC AC 210859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

DISCUSSION

An active severe weather pattern is expected through much of the forecast period …

Broadly cyclonic midlevel flow will persist through much of the forecast period to the south of a closed upper low over south-central Canada. This will place much of the Southern Plains in westerly or southwesterly mid- and upper-level flow each day. At the same time low-level pattern will support southerly flow from the surface up through 850 mb across the same region. The result will be an increasingly moist airmass to the east of a north-south dryline across western Oklahoma and Kansas, and to the south of a remnant west-to-east frontal boundary.

Diurnal heating of this moist airmass will result in afternoon MUCAPE values around 2000-3000 J/kg Friday and Saturday beneath 30-40 knots of vertical shear. Model guidance continues to show several perturbations within the midlevel flow traversing the Southern Plains on Friday into Sunday morning. The result will be multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms. The exact location and dimensions of these daily severe threats will likely be augmented by the prior days' convection, but the overall pattern supports near daily severe potential across much of the Southern Plains.

On Sunday (Day 6) a stronger, yet compact, midlevel wave is forecast to move northeast across Oklahoma. This wave is forecast to induce cyclogenesis across western Oklahoma, which should act to sharpen a dryline. To the east of the dryline, strong southerly winds will support surface dewpoints increasing into the upper 60Fs to perhaps low 70Fs. Diurnal heating of this airmass will result in MUCAPE values nearing 4000 J/kg across central Oklahoma. Deep-layer shear approaching 50 knots will overspread the region during the afternoon as the main wave approaches. Although global models are struggling to initiate convection along the dryline, pattern recognition would support a significant severe weather threat Sunday evening. The lack of model convective initiation results in enough uncertainty to preclude the introduction of 30% unconditional severe probabilities. All severe hazards will be possible on Sunday.

The severe threat will continue into Monday/Day-7 as the midlevel low and surface cyclone translate east into the lower Mississippi Valley. The severe threat may continue into Tuesday/Day-8 across portions of the Southeast US, although numerous days of preceding convection should use up the steep lapse rate reservoir to the west resulting in too much uncertainty to introduce unconditional severe probabilities at this time.

..Marsh.. 04/21/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, April 26

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Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210859 SPC AC 210859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

DISCUSSION

An active severe weather pattern is expected through much of the forecast period …

Broadly cyclonic midlevel flow will persist through much of the forecast period to the south of a closed upper low over south-central Canada. This will place much of the Southern Plains in westerly or southwesterly mid- and upper-level flow each day. At the same time low-level pattern will support southerly flow from the surface up through 850 mb across the same region. The result will be an increasingly moist airmass to the east of a north-south dryline across western Oklahoma and Kansas, and to the south of a remnant west-to-east frontal boundary.

Diurnal heating of this moist airmass will result in afternoon MUCAPE values around 2000-3000 J/kg Friday and Saturday beneath 30-40 knots of vertical shear. Model guidance continues to show several perturbations within the midlevel flow traversing the Southern Plains on Friday into Sunday morning. The result will be multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms. The exact location and dimensions of these daily severe threats will likely be augmented by the prior days' convection, but the overall pattern supports near daily severe potential across much of the Southern Plains.

On Sunday (Day 6) a stronger, yet compact, midlevel wave is forecast to move northeast across Oklahoma. This wave is forecast to induce cyclogenesis across western Oklahoma, which should act to sharpen a dryline. To the east of the dryline, strong southerly winds will support surface dewpoints increasing into the upper 60Fs to perhaps low 70Fs. Diurnal heating of this airmass will result in MUCAPE values nearing 4000 J/kg across central Oklahoma. Deep-layer shear approaching 50 knots will overspread the region during the afternoon as the main wave approaches. Although global models are struggling to initiate convection along the dryline, pattern recognition would support a significant severe weather threat Sunday evening. The lack of model convective initiation results in enough uncertainty to preclude the introduction of 30% unconditional severe probabilities. All severe hazards will be possible on Sunday.

The severe threat will continue into Monday/Day-7 as the midlevel low and surface cyclone translate east into the lower Mississippi Valley. The severe threat may continue into Tuesday/Day-8 across portions of the Southeast US, although numerous days of preceding convection should use up the steep lapse rate reservoir to the west resulting in too much uncertainty to introduce unconditional severe probabilities at this time.

..Marsh.. 04/21/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, April 27

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210859 SPC AC 210859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

DISCUSSION

An active severe weather pattern is expected through much of the forecast period …

Broadly cyclonic midlevel flow will persist through much of the forecast period to the south of a closed upper low over south-central Canada. This will place much of the Southern Plains in westerly or southwesterly mid- and upper-level flow each day. At the same time low-level pattern will support southerly flow from the surface up through 850 mb across the same region. The result will be an increasingly moist airmass to the east of a north-south dryline across western Oklahoma and Kansas, and to the south of a remnant west-to-east frontal boundary.

Diurnal heating of this moist airmass will result in afternoon MUCAPE values around 2000-3000 J/kg Friday and Saturday beneath 30-40 knots of vertical shear. Model guidance continues to show several perturbations within the midlevel flow traversing the Southern Plains on Friday into Sunday morning. The result will be multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms. The exact location and dimensions of these daily severe threats will likely be augmented by the prior days' convection, but the overall pattern supports near daily severe potential across much of the Southern Plains.

On Sunday (Day 6) a stronger, yet compact, midlevel wave is forecast to move northeast across Oklahoma. This wave is forecast to induce cyclogenesis across western Oklahoma, which should act to sharpen a dryline. To the east of the dryline, strong southerly winds will support surface dewpoints increasing into the upper 60Fs to perhaps low 70Fs. Diurnal heating of this airmass will result in MUCAPE values nearing 4000 J/kg across central Oklahoma. Deep-layer shear approaching 50 knots will overspread the region during the afternoon as the main wave approaches. Although global models are struggling to initiate convection along the dryline, pattern recognition would support a significant severe weather threat Sunday evening. The lack of model convective initiation results in enough uncertainty to preclude the introduction of 30% unconditional severe probabilities. All severe hazards will be possible on Sunday.

The severe threat will continue into Monday/Day-7 as the midlevel low and surface cyclone translate east into the lower Mississippi Valley. The severe threat may continue into Tuesday/Day-8 across portions of the Southeast US, although numerous days of preceding convection should use up the steep lapse rate reservoir to the west resulting in too much uncertainty to introduce unconditional severe probabilities at this time.

..Marsh.. 04/21/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, April 28

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210859 SPC AC 210859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

DISCUSSION

An active severe weather pattern is expected through much of the forecast period …

Broadly cyclonic midlevel flow will persist through much of the forecast period to the south of a closed upper low over south-central Canada. This will place much of the Southern Plains in westerly or southwesterly mid- and upper-level flow each day. At the same time low-level pattern will support southerly flow from the surface up through 850 mb across the same region. The result will be an increasingly moist airmass to the east of a north-south dryline across western Oklahoma and Kansas, and to the south of a remnant west-to-east frontal boundary.

Diurnal heating of this moist airmass will result in afternoon MUCAPE values around 2000-3000 J/kg Friday and Saturday beneath 30-40 knots of vertical shear. Model guidance continues to show several perturbations within the midlevel flow traversing the Southern Plains on Friday into Sunday morning. The result will be multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms. The exact location and dimensions of these daily severe threats will likely be augmented by the prior days' convection, but the overall pattern supports near daily severe potential across much of the Southern Plains.

On Sunday (Day 6) a stronger, yet compact, midlevel wave is forecast to move northeast across Oklahoma. This wave is forecast to induce cyclogenesis across western Oklahoma, which should act to sharpen a dryline. To the east of the dryline, strong southerly winds will support surface dewpoints increasing into the upper 60Fs to perhaps low 70Fs. Diurnal heating of this airmass will result in MUCAPE values nearing 4000 J/kg across central Oklahoma. Deep-layer shear approaching 50 knots will overspread the region during the afternoon as the main wave approaches. Although global models are struggling to initiate convection along the dryline, pattern recognition would support a significant severe weather threat Sunday evening. The lack of model convective initiation results in enough uncertainty to preclude the introduction of 30% unconditional severe probabilities. All severe hazards will be possible on Sunday.

The severe threat will continue into Monday/Day-7 as the midlevel low and surface cyclone translate east into the lower Mississippi Valley. The severe threat may continue into Tuesday/Day-8 across portions of the Southeast US, although numerous days of preceding convection should use up the steep lapse rate reservoir to the west resulting in too much uncertainty to introduce unconditional severe probabilities at this time.

..Marsh.. 04/21/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Wednesday, April 22

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 5%

Thursday, April 23

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Friday, April 24

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Saturday, April 25

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Sunday, April 26

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Monday, April 27

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Tuesday, April 28

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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