Severe Weather Outlook
Hayley here - Do you want to see severe weather in your calendar?
* it's like an add-on for your digital calendar NOT a paper calendar
National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, October 17
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 170514
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.
Synopsis
In the wake of a cold frontal passage, much of the CONUS will be too dry and stable for thunderstorm development today. The front will continue moving southward along the central/southern FL Peninsula, where scattered storm development will be possible within a very moist environment. Poor lapse rates and weak deep-layer shear should limit organized severe potential, though localized strong gusts may occur. Across the Southwest, sporadic lightning flashes may accompany weak convection associated with a slow-moving mid/upper low centered offshore of Baja California.
..Dean/Chalmers.. 10/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Sunday, October 18
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected tomorrow (Sunday).
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 170545
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected tomorrow (Sunday).
Synopsis
A mid-level ridge will remain over the central U.S. while a 500 mb cut-off low meanders off of the Atlantic Coast and broad upper troughing dominates the western CONUS tomorrow (Sunday). A relatively cool and stable low-level airmass will overspread much of the CONUS, inhibiting thunderstorm development. A few thunderstorms may occur over the southern FL Peninsula, where the heating of remnant low-level moisture will promote localized lift and buoyancy. A couple of lightning flashes may also occur over portions of the Desert Southwest, where cooler temperatures aloft and modest ascent will accompany a weak mid-level impulse.
..Squitieri.. 10/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Monday, October 19
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 170716
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.
Synopsis
A mid-level cut-off low will continue to meander off of the Atlantic Coast while an upper trough deepens over the Interior West and an upper ridge remains in place over the central U.S. on Monday. A cool and/or stable low-level airmass will remain in place over most of the U.S., limiting thunderstorm development. However, the amplification of the western upper trough will promote low-level moisture return beneath cooling temperatures aloft over the Desert Southwest, increasing the chance for thunderstorms in this area. A thunderstorm or two may also occur over the far southern FL Peninsula, in tandem with the heating of some residual low-level moisture.
..Squitieri.. 10/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Tuesday, October 20
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, October 20 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, October 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, October 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, October 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, October 24 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170747 SPC AC 170747
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper trough will gradually approach the Rockies into the middle of next week, encouraging surface lee troughing and accompanying modest low-level moisture return. As this occurs, cooler temperatures and stronger flow aloft will overspread this low-level moisture, resulting in increased potential for thunderstorm development. There are some indications of enough buoyancy/shear overlap in the Desert Southwest to Great Plains states during the Days 5-7 (Wednesday-Friday) time frame to support an isolated severe threat. Calibrated AI/ML guidance supports this potential, with guidance trends showing gradually increasing probabilities. However, given anticipated low buoyancy, the severe threat still appears quite isolated and localized.
..Squitieri.. 10/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, October 21
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, October 20 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, October 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, October 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, October 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, October 24 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170747 SPC AC 170747
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper trough will gradually approach the Rockies into the middle of next week, encouraging surface lee troughing and accompanying modest low-level moisture return. As this occurs, cooler temperatures and stronger flow aloft will overspread this low-level moisture, resulting in increased potential for thunderstorm development. There are some indications of enough buoyancy/shear overlap in the Desert Southwest to Great Plains states during the Days 5-7 (Wednesday-Friday) time frame to support an isolated severe threat. Calibrated AI/ML guidance supports this potential, with guidance trends showing gradually increasing probabilities. However, given anticipated low buoyancy, the severe threat still appears quite isolated and localized.
..Squitieri.. 10/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, October 22
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, October 20 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, October 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, October 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, October 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, October 24 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170747 SPC AC 170747
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper trough will gradually approach the Rockies into the middle of next week, encouraging surface lee troughing and accompanying modest low-level moisture return. As this occurs, cooler temperatures and stronger flow aloft will overspread this low-level moisture, resulting in increased potential for thunderstorm development. There are some indications of enough buoyancy/shear overlap in the Desert Southwest to Great Plains states during the Days 5-7 (Wednesday-Friday) time frame to support an isolated severe threat. Calibrated AI/ML guidance supports this potential, with guidance trends showing gradually increasing probabilities. However, given anticipated low buoyancy, the severe threat still appears quite isolated and localized.
..Squitieri.. 10/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, October 23
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, October 20 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, October 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, October 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, October 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, October 24 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170747 SPC AC 170747
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper trough will gradually approach the Rockies into the middle of next week, encouraging surface lee troughing and accompanying modest low-level moisture return. As this occurs, cooler temperatures and stronger flow aloft will overspread this low-level moisture, resulting in increased potential for thunderstorm development. There are some indications of enough buoyancy/shear overlap in the Desert Southwest to Great Plains states during the Days 5-7 (Wednesday-Friday) time frame to support an isolated severe threat. Calibrated AI/ML guidance supports this potential, with guidance trends showing gradually increasing probabilities. However, given anticipated low buoyancy, the severe threat still appears quite isolated and localized.
..Squitieri.. 10/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, October 24
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, October 20 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, October 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, October 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, October 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, October 24 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170747 SPC AC 170747
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper trough will gradually approach the Rockies into the middle of next week, encouraging surface lee troughing and accompanying modest low-level moisture return. As this occurs, cooler temperatures and stronger flow aloft will overspread this low-level moisture, resulting in increased potential for thunderstorm development. There are some indications of enough buoyancy/shear overlap in the Desert Southwest to Great Plains states during the Days 5-7 (Wednesday-Friday) time frame to support an isolated severe threat. Calibrated AI/ML guidance supports this potential, with guidance trends showing gradually increasing probabilities. However, given anticipated low buoyancy, the severe threat still appears quite isolated and localized.
..Squitieri.. 10/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, October 17
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Sunday, October 18
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Monday, October 19
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Tuesday, October 20
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, October 21
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, October 22
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, October 23
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, October 24
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Your Severe Outlook
Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.
Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.
Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.
About Severe Weather Outlook . com
SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.
- tornado hq - live severe weather warnings
- cyclocane - hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones
- tornado solitaire - play cards while you monitor the US severe weather threat
- tertremo - live view of earthquakes around the world
- earthquake solitaire - get live earthquake updates as you play your favorite card game