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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Friday, June 26

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe thunderstorm development is expected today, particularly this afternoon into tonight across parts of the southern Plains to Lower Ohio Valley and across parts of the northern and central High Plains to the Black Hills vicinity. Other severe storms are expected across portions of New England.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 262000

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Valid 262000Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS…SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY…AND PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe thunderstorm development is expected today, particularly this afternoon into tonight across parts of the southern Plains to Lower Ohio Valley and across parts of the northern and central High Plains to the Black Hills vicinity. Other severe storms are expected across portions of New England.

20Z Update

The forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made with this update.

The SLGT risk in the central High Plains was expanded southeastward from southeast CO into southwest KS and parts of the OK/TX Panhandles. Guidance is in relatively good agreement, depicting thunderstorms evolving off the Raton Mesa and tracking east-southeastward along a gradient of rich boundary-layer moisture/moderate surface-based buoyancy this evening/tonight. Aided by 40 kt of effective shear and increasing low-level hodograph curvature amid a strengthening nocturnal LLJ, supercell clusters will pose a risk for severe gusts, large hail, and possibly a tornado.

Farther east, a minor westward expansion of the SLGT risk was made into north-central OK. Ample diurnal heating/destabilization of a very moist air mas (middle/upper 70s dewpoints) is yielding strong surface-based buoyancy along an east/west-oriented surface boundary. Current thinking is that a few organized clusters/supercells developing along the boundary will be capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail later this afternoon/evening.

..Weinman.. 06/26/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1147 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026/

Ozarks and Lower Ohio Valley

Multiple eastward-moving MCVs remain evident regionally in observational data at midday, probably strongest across southeast Missouri, but also the Oklahoma/Arkansas border vicinity and northern Kentucky. A related observed enhancement to the low/mid-level flow will persists from the Ozarks/Bootheel east-northeastward parallel to the Ohio River, but cloud cover/scattered precipitation remains fairly prevalent regionally as well. Peripheral cloud breaks and insolation should allow for gradual destabilization, particularly on the south/southwest fringes of this early day activity. This should lead to severe storm development into mid/late afternoon through the evening, potentially including supercells given the flow enhancement. A couple of tornadoes could occur aside from wind damage.

High Plains

A seasonably anomalous upper trough will continue to amplify and spread eastward over the Pacific Northwest toward the Great Basin and Intermountain West, with a lead disturbance ejecting northeastward toward the northern High Plains. Pronounced lee troughing is forecast with a surface low expected to evolve over central and southeast Montana through tonight. A corridor of at least weak to moderate boundary-layer destabilization is expected across the High Plains. Strengthening large-scale ascent and ample vertical shear downstream of the digging large-scale troughing will favor organized severe thunderstorm development late this afternoon through evening. Supercells and evolving organized clusters will pose a risk for large hail and severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado. Across the central into southern High Plains, isolated to widely scattered storms will likely develop/mature and propagate east during the evening. Hail and wind are the primary hazards with this activity and this severe risk will probably linger into the late evening.

New England

Have introduced a Slight Risk for portions of the region, primarily focused near the advancing surface low/warm front. A shortwave trough over Ontario/Lower Great Lakes will move east across New England by this evening. Cloud cover, albeit abating this afternoon, will limit the overall magnitude of destabilization, but upwards of 1000-1500 J/kg SBCAPE are forecast to develop along/south of a warm front. Elongated hodographs beneath a 100+ kt 250-mb speed max will aid in storm organization in the form of possibly a couple of supercells and organized multicells. Isolated coverage of large hail and damaging gusts are the primary risks with the stronger thunderstorms, but the moist environment and low-level shear/SRH could yield a tornado threat.

Mid-Atlantic States to Carolinas

The southern periphery of stronger mid to high-level westerly flow is forecast across the region, atop northward-shifting low-level moisture that is richest across the Carolinas into southern Virginia, where near/above 70 F surface dewpoints are prevalent. The overlap of moderate westerly flow and weak destabilization is expected to support scattered thunderstorms capable of strong to locally severe/damaging gusts (50-60 mph). Additional sea-breeze influenced locally severe storms may occur across the coastal plain of the Carolinas.

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Outlook for Saturday, June 27

Outlook Summary

Severe storms are likely across portions of eastern Montana and western/central North Dakota on Saturday. Severe storms will also be possible from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to Virginia and the Carolinas, as well as portions of the southern High Plains.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 261742

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS

### THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST VA AND EASTERN NC

### SUMMARY

Severe storms are likely across portions of eastern Montana and western/central North Dakota on Saturday. Severe storms will also be possible from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to Virginia and the Carolinas, as well as portions of the southern High Plains.

Synopsis

An upper low and attendant large-scale upper trough will persist across the western U.S. on Saturday. Further east, upper ridging over the Plains is forecast to shift east toward the Upper Midwest and Mid-MS Valley by Sunday morning. Quasi-zonal/weak upper troughing is expected to persist across the eastern U.S. Within this large-scale regime, several shortwave impulses and embedded MCVs are expected to drive severe thunderstorm potential across multiple areas on Saturday. A lead upper shortwave trough is expected to eject from the eastern Great Basin through the northern High Plains. A series of MCVs will move from the Ozark Plateau to the OH/TN Valleys, while another MCV and/or surface trough impacts thunderstorm potential across the Mid-Atlantic/Piedmont. Finally, another upper shortwave impulse could emerge across the central Plains into the Mid-MO/Mid-MS Valleys.

Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains

A midlevel jet streak will overspread parts of the Great Basin into the northern Plains, characterized by 50-60 kt southwesterly 500 mb flow. Cooling aloft is also forecast and will result in a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates. Surface low pressure is forecast to deepen across northeast WY/western SD through evening. This will support northward transport of low to mid 60s F dewpoints into eastern MT/ND/SD. This will result in a narrow corridor of moderate to strong instability. Capping will increase with eastward extent as a result of midlevel height rises/warming aloft, which should confine the eastward extent of severe potential.

As large-scale ascent increasing during the afternoon, convection is expected to develop across the higher terrain of northern UT/ID into WY. This initial activity will pose a risk for strong wind gusts and isolated hail given strong deep-layer flow, steep midlevel lapse rates, and a well mixed boundary layer. Additional convection is expected to develop near the Big Horns and Beartooth/Absaroka ranges. As this activity develops northeast into better low-level moisture and strong instability, large to very large hail potential will increase. With time during the evening, a southerly low-level jet will increase across the Dakotas. Upscale growth is possible as convection moves toward the terminus of the low-level jet and as sufficient clustering/cold pool development occurs. If this convective evolution unfolds, a swath of damaging wind gusts will be possible, mainly across eastern MT into western ND.

Mid-Atlantic

Ongoing convection and cloudiness will likely hinder daytime destabilization. Nevertheless, several shortwave impulses will move across the region along with 25-30 kt westerly midlevel flow. Isolated strong storms may produce gusty winds. The Slight risk (level 2 of 5) has been confined to areas nearer the coast where instability will be greatest.

Southern High Plains

A surface trough/dryline will extend south/southwest from western KS to southwest TX. A moist airmass will exist east of this boundary with hot temperatures forecast along and just behind the boundary. Moderate to strong destabilization will occur near the boundary in a narrow corridor, confined by stronger capping to the east across much of OK/KS/central TX. However, isolated to widely scattered storms are expected to develop during peak heating to early evening. Vertically veering wind profiles with up to 25 kt effective shear magnitudes suggest organized updrafts and high-based transient supercell structures are possible. Given a deeply mixed boundary layer, strong gusts will be possible. Organized updrafts that can be maintained also will pose a risk of large hail given very steep midlevel lapse rates and somewhat elongated hodographs.

Ozarks to TN Valley vicinity

Storms are forecast to be ongoing Saturday morning across southwest MO. This activity could pose a marginal wind/hail risk initially. Additional development is expected from southern IL/southeast MO into KY/TN by late morning and spread east through the afternoon as an MCV moves across the region. While deep layer flow will not be impressive, the MCV could locally enhanced vertical shear. Thunderstorm clusters will mainly pose a risk for damaging winds as they track across moisture-rich and moderately unstable airmass.

Northeast CO/Western NE into central SD

Convection may develop during the late afternoon along the surface trough/dryline. Rich boundary layer moisture beneath steep lapse rates will support strong destabilization. This corridor will remain rather confined given rising midlevel heights and capping to the east. Any storms that develop will have potential for strong outflow gusts and large hail.

Mid-MO Valley vicinity

It is uncertain if convection will develop across this area, or if it does - will it be surface-based, resulting in a rather conditional severe risk. If storms can develop, an all-hazards severe risk would be possible given a surface warm front lifting north across the region amid ample moisture/instability and supercell wind profiles. Given the conditional nature of the risk, particularly due to capping, will maintain low severe probabilities.

..Leitman.. 06/26/2026

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Outlook for Sunday, June 28

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern Plains into parts of the Upper Midwest on Sunday. Large hail and severe winds are the primary hazards.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 261916

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND THE UPPER MIDWEST

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern Plains into parts of the Upper Midwest on Sunday. Large hail and severe winds are the primary hazards.

Synopsis

The western U.S. upper trough will deepen and persist over that region on Sunday. Meanwhile, upper ridging will intensify over the Midwest into the South, while a shortwave upper trough moves from the Ohio Valley to the southern Mid-Atlantic region. At the surface, some uncertainty persists with regards to the location of lee surface low development in the central or northern Plains. The NAM appears to be an outlier compared to the ECMWF/GFS and the AI versions thereof. This will be important for where the best corridor of severe thunderstorm potential develops on Sunday afternoon/evening. Further east, a surface front will sag southward across the Upper OH Valley and portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Between these surface boundaries, a seasonally very moist airmass will exist across at least eastern portions of the Plains to the MS Valley and the southern Mid-Atlantic.

Northern Plains/Upper Midwest vicinity

The forecast for Sunday is highly uncertain. Forecast guidance suggests a shortwave impulse and/or MCV will move across northern MN during the afternoon/evening. This area will be beneath the upper ridge axis and could be capped. However, a very moist airmass will be in place beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. Furthermore, a strong southerly low-level jet is expected to focus from the central Plains to the Upper MS Valley during the evening/nighttime hours. If storms can develop and become near-surface based, potential for damaging wind gusts and large hail will be possible. This scenario is generally supported by the RRFS and GSL MPAS, though location/timing varies.

Forecast guidance develops additional areas of convection across portions of western NE/central SD into ND on the western periphery of stronger capping and near the surface trough/dryline within the gradient of stronger instability. This scenario is uncertain, both regarding storm development, and if storms occur, whether or not they will be surface-based. However, if storms do develop, an intense low-level jet within the strongly unstable airmass during the evening/overnight hours could support damaging wind potential. The Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been adjusted to reflect this conditional risk.

Southern Mid-Atlantic

Forecast guidance suggests an MCV will move across the central Appalachians into parts of VA/NC on Sunday. Deep-layer flow is not expected to be particularly strong, but this feature could locally enhanced vertical shear, with some guidance showing effective shear magnitudes up to 25 kt are possible. A seasonally very moist airmass will reside east of the higher terrain across southeast VA into the eastern Carolinas, supporting moderate destabilization as strong daytime heating occurs. Thunderstorms will pose an isolated damaging wind risk into early evening.

..Leitman.. 06/26/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Monday, June 29

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260857 SPC AC 260857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Valid 291200Z - 041200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper-level trough centered within the Intermountain West will continue pivoting northeast through the northern Plains on Monday. This feature will be fairly meridional in character. The strongest height falls are likely to occur after 00Z within North Dakota. To the east, an amplified upper ridge will be in place. Moisture advection will continue in the upper Mississippi Valley given the southerly low levels winds. Strong to extreme buoyancy is expected to develop as a result. While this pattern does suggest potential for severe weather, there is still uncertainty as to where the most favorable environment will be given the influence of convection that could occur late on Sunday night into early Monday morning. The 15% area has been maintained this cycle given the potential for a an MCS to develop, but modification seems likely in the coming days given the mesoscale details that will play a large role in where severe weather ultimately occurs.

From Tuesday onward, the strongest mid-level flow will shift into Canada as the western upper trough becomes more broad. A large reservoir of strong to extreme buoyancy is still forecast to be in place underneath the ridge. While areas of severe weather are possible, they will be highly tied to mesoscale features as larger scale features will become more nebulous and deep-layer shear will weaken through the remainder of the period. As a result, predictability is reduced.

..Wendt.. 06/26/2026

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Outlook for Tuesday, June 30

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260857 SPC AC 260857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Valid 291200Z - 041200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper-level trough centered within the Intermountain West will continue pivoting northeast through the northern Plains on Monday. This feature will be fairly meridional in character. The strongest height falls are likely to occur after 00Z within North Dakota. To the east, an amplified upper ridge will be in place. Moisture advection will continue in the upper Mississippi Valley given the southerly low levels winds. Strong to extreme buoyancy is expected to develop as a result. While this pattern does suggest potential for severe weather, there is still uncertainty as to where the most favorable environment will be given the influence of convection that could occur late on Sunday night into early Monday morning. The 15% area has been maintained this cycle given the potential for a an MCS to develop, but modification seems likely in the coming days given the mesoscale details that will play a large role in where severe weather ultimately occurs.

From Tuesday onward, the strongest mid-level flow will shift into Canada as the western upper trough becomes more broad. A large reservoir of strong to extreme buoyancy is still forecast to be in place underneath the ridge. While areas of severe weather are possible, they will be highly tied to mesoscale features as larger scale features will become more nebulous and deep-layer shear will weaken through the remainder of the period. As a result, predictability is reduced.

..Wendt.. 06/26/2026

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Outlook for Wednesday, July 1

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260857 SPC AC 260857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Valid 291200Z - 041200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper-level trough centered within the Intermountain West will continue pivoting northeast through the northern Plains on Monday. This feature will be fairly meridional in character. The strongest height falls are likely to occur after 00Z within North Dakota. To the east, an amplified upper ridge will be in place. Moisture advection will continue in the upper Mississippi Valley given the southerly low levels winds. Strong to extreme buoyancy is expected to develop as a result. While this pattern does suggest potential for severe weather, there is still uncertainty as to where the most favorable environment will be given the influence of convection that could occur late on Sunday night into early Monday morning. The 15% area has been maintained this cycle given the potential for a an MCS to develop, but modification seems likely in the coming days given the mesoscale details that will play a large role in where severe weather ultimately occurs.

From Tuesday onward, the strongest mid-level flow will shift into Canada as the western upper trough becomes more broad. A large reservoir of strong to extreme buoyancy is still forecast to be in place underneath the ridge. While areas of severe weather are possible, they will be highly tied to mesoscale features as larger scale features will become more nebulous and deep-layer shear will weaken through the remainder of the period. As a result, predictability is reduced.

..Wendt.. 06/26/2026

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Outlook for Thursday, July 2

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260857 SPC AC 260857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Valid 291200Z - 041200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper-level trough centered within the Intermountain West will continue pivoting northeast through the northern Plains on Monday. This feature will be fairly meridional in character. The strongest height falls are likely to occur after 00Z within North Dakota. To the east, an amplified upper ridge will be in place. Moisture advection will continue in the upper Mississippi Valley given the southerly low levels winds. Strong to extreme buoyancy is expected to develop as a result. While this pattern does suggest potential for severe weather, there is still uncertainty as to where the most favorable environment will be given the influence of convection that could occur late on Sunday night into early Monday morning. The 15% area has been maintained this cycle given the potential for a an MCS to develop, but modification seems likely in the coming days given the mesoscale details that will play a large role in where severe weather ultimately occurs.

From Tuesday onward, the strongest mid-level flow will shift into Canada as the western upper trough becomes more broad. A large reservoir of strong to extreme buoyancy is still forecast to be in place underneath the ridge. While areas of severe weather are possible, they will be highly tied to mesoscale features as larger scale features will become more nebulous and deep-layer shear will weaken through the remainder of the period. As a result, predictability is reduced.

..Wendt.. 06/26/2026

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Outlook for Friday, July 3

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260857 SPC AC 260857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Valid 291200Z - 041200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper-level trough centered within the Intermountain West will continue pivoting northeast through the northern Plains on Monday. This feature will be fairly meridional in character. The strongest height falls are likely to occur after 00Z within North Dakota. To the east, an amplified upper ridge will be in place. Moisture advection will continue in the upper Mississippi Valley given the southerly low levels winds. Strong to extreme buoyancy is expected to develop as a result. While this pattern does suggest potential for severe weather, there is still uncertainty as to where the most favorable environment will be given the influence of convection that could occur late on Sunday night into early Monday morning. The 15% area has been maintained this cycle given the potential for a an MCS to develop, but modification seems likely in the coming days given the mesoscale details that will play a large role in where severe weather ultimately occurs.

From Tuesday onward, the strongest mid-level flow will shift into Canada as the western upper trough becomes more broad. A large reservoir of strong to extreme buoyancy is still forecast to be in place underneath the ridge. While areas of severe weather are possible, they will be highly tied to mesoscale features as larger scale features will become more nebulous and deep-layer shear will weaken through the remainder of the period. As a result, predictability is reduced.

..Wendt.. 06/26/2026

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National Risk Overview

Friday, June 26

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Saturday, June 27

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 30%

WIND: 30%

Sunday, June 28

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Monday, June 29

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Tuesday, June 30

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Wednesday, July 1

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Thursday, July 2

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, July 3

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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