Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, March 14
Outlook Summary
No severe threat is forecast over the continental U.S. today or tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 140554
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
No severe threat is forecast over the continental U.S. today or tonight.
DISCUSSION
An upper-level trough will move from the Northeast offshore into the western Atlantic today. At mid-levels, westerly flow will prevail over much of the central U.S., as a trough amplifies in the northern Rockies. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the trough this afternoon. As the trough moves into the Great Plains tonight, thunderstorms will be possible near the edge of a low-level jet in parts of the upper Mississippi Valley. Scattered storms may also develop across the Florida Peninsula today. No severe threat is forecast today or tonight across the U.S.
..Broyles/Thornton.. 03/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Sunday, March 15
Outlook Summary
A widespread damaging wind event with some tornado threat is likely late Sunday afternoon through Sunday night from northeast Texas to southwest Lower Michigan. The greatest wind damage threat appears to be from northeast Arkansas/western Tennessee to southern Indiana during the evening and overnight hours.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 45%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 140558
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA
### SUMMARY
A widespread damaging wind event with some tornado threat is likely late Sunday afternoon through Sunday night from northeast Texas to southwest Lower Michigan. The greatest wind damage threat appears to be from northeast Arkansas/western Tennessee to southern Indiana during the evening and overnight hours.
Synopsis
A large upper trough will deepen on Sunday as it moves from the Plains toward the MS Valley, with an intensifying mid and upper level jet streak extending from Lake Michigan to northern MS into Monday morning. At the surface, low pressure will move from IA/MO into northern IL during the day, with further deepening overnight as it pivots into Lower MI. A strong cold front will extend south from the low, from IL into southeast MO and into eastern TX at 00Z. This front will accelerate across the OH, TN, and lower MS Valleys overnight, extending from OH to the FL Panhandle by 12Z Monday.
A broad zone of gusty southerly winds will exist well ahead of the cold front over much of the region, aided by a mixed boundary layer and 40-60 kt 850 mb winds through the peak heating hours. An initial low-level moist plume will develop from eastern TX across AR and toward the lower OH Valley during the day, with dewpoints above 60 F. Continued warm/moist advection will occur during the evening, as the low-level jet becomes very strong, ranging from 50-60 kt over the Gulf Coast states to 75 kt into IN, OH, KY. Dewpoints into the mid 50s F will likely reach across much of IL, IN, and far southern Lower MI.
As the cold front encounters the developing moisture/instability plume, storms will likely develop from western IL/MO southwestward toward the ArkLaTex by 21Z, with a rapid upscale growth into a squall line/QLCS, peaking in the 00 to 06Z time frame across the heart of the Enhanced Risk area.
Farther east, a secondary moisture plume will develop across GA and the Carolinas, possibly supporting isolated strong or severe storms across the Piedmont during the late afternoon and again overnight, and perhaps along parts of the coast.
Northeast TX across the MS and OH Valleys and up to IN/OH/Lower MI
While instability is likely to be a limiting factor late afternoon and evening, strong large-scale ascent coupled with developing extreme shear profiles will likely result in corridors of damaging winds, with a few tornadoes as well. Shallow convection is likely to develop along the cold front from MO into western AR by early afternoon, with gradual strengthening as the air mass destabilizes. Storms are also expected to develop ahead of the cold front late in the day and into the evening, from southern IL into southeast MO and eastern AR, with increasing wind and tornado risk from IL/IN into western KY, TN, and northeast AR. The front will continue to push rapidly east and southeast overnight, with continued wind and isolated tornado risk from OH to the southern Appalachians. A conditional tornado risk will also exist overnight ahead of the front into AL/GA if cells can develop across the warm sector early Monday.
..Jewell.. 03/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Monday, March 16
Outlook Summary
Widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes are forecast on Monday for parts of the Mid Atlantic and Southeast.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 30%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 140726
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE CAROLINAS…VIRGINIA…AND EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
### SUMMARY
Widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes are forecast on Monday for parts of the Mid Atlantic and Southeast.
Discussion
A large and deepening upper trough will eject east/northeastward out of the MS/OH/TN Valleys and across the Appalachians and into the Mid Atlantic/Northeast on Monday, with an expansive area of strong wind fields aloft. A surface low move from Lower MI into southern Quebec, with a deep pre-frontal trough extending southward across eastern PA, VA, and NC by around 21Z. Ahead of this trough/front, southerly winds will bring 60s F dewpoints as far north as southeast PA.
Storms will likely be ongoing along the length of the cold front, roughly from OH to the FL Panhandle Monday morning. Given the uncapped air mass over the Carolinas, a few storms, possibly supercells, may develop relatively early in the day as well, with tornado potential. The greatest threat however will be during the afternoon as cold front nears, and pressure falls are maximized along with daytime heating. A few supercells ahead of the line will be possible, along with embedded circulations and/significant damaging winds within the squall line.
There are model differences regarding the speed/position of the cold front, as well as the degree of instability. Regardless, damaging winds over a large area appear likely, along with at least a few tornadoes. Depending on the degree of destabilization, a strong tornado or two may occur especially over parts of the Carolinas and Virginia during the late afternoon. Many models forecast 300-500 m2/s2 SRH, along with pockets of SBCAPE over 1000 J/kg, which is clearly favorable for tornadic supercells.
..Jewell.. 03/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Tuesday, March 17
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, March 17 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, March 18 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, March 19 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, March 20 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, March 21 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140850 SPC AC 140850
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
On Tuesday/D4, a large upper trough will move across the Northeast, though the associated surface cold front will already be well offshore the East Coast with high pressure over land. Behind this upper trough, models indicate a large upper ridge will be situated over the Southwest for several days, with a northwest flow pattern across the Plains. Given this pattern, minimal appreciable moisture return is expected over the CONUS, and severe storms appear unlikely through Saturday/D8.
..Jewell.. 03/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, March 18
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, March 17 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, March 18 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, March 19 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, March 20 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, March 21 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140850 SPC AC 140850
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
On Tuesday/D4, a large upper trough will move across the Northeast, though the associated surface cold front will already be well offshore the East Coast with high pressure over land. Behind this upper trough, models indicate a large upper ridge will be situated over the Southwest for several days, with a northwest flow pattern across the Plains. Given this pattern, minimal appreciable moisture return is expected over the CONUS, and severe storms appear unlikely through Saturday/D8.
..Jewell.. 03/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, March 19
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, March 17 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, March 18 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, March 19 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, March 20 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, March 21 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140850 SPC AC 140850
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
On Tuesday/D4, a large upper trough will move across the Northeast, though the associated surface cold front will already be well offshore the East Coast with high pressure over land. Behind this upper trough, models indicate a large upper ridge will be situated over the Southwest for several days, with a northwest flow pattern across the Plains. Given this pattern, minimal appreciable moisture return is expected over the CONUS, and severe storms appear unlikely through Saturday/D8.
..Jewell.. 03/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, March 20
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, March 17 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, March 18 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, March 19 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, March 20 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, March 21 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140850 SPC AC 140850
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
On Tuesday/D4, a large upper trough will move across the Northeast, though the associated surface cold front will already be well offshore the East Coast with high pressure over land. Behind this upper trough, models indicate a large upper ridge will be situated over the Southwest for several days, with a northwest flow pattern across the Plains. Given this pattern, minimal appreciable moisture return is expected over the CONUS, and severe storms appear unlikely through Saturday/D8.
..Jewell.. 03/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, March 21
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, March 17 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, March 18 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, March 19 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, March 20 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, March 21 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140850 SPC AC 140850
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
On Tuesday/D4, a large upper trough will move across the Northeast, though the associated surface cold front will already be well offshore the East Coast with high pressure over land. Behind this upper trough, models indicate a large upper ridge will be situated over the Southwest for several days, with a northwest flow pattern across the Plains. Given this pattern, minimal appreciable moisture return is expected over the CONUS, and severe storms appear unlikely through Saturday/D8.
..Jewell.. 03/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, March 14
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Sunday, March 15
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 45%
- Monday, March 16
- ANY SEVERE: 30%
- Tuesday, March 17
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, March 18
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, March 19
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, March 20
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, March 21
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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