Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, December 22
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorm probabilities are low tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 230027
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0627 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025
Valid 230100Z - 231200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorm probabilities are low tonight.
01z Update
Water-vapor imagery depicts a notable short-wave trough advancing inland along the Pacific Northwest coast. A few flashes of lighting have been observed with deeper convection ahead of this feature, primarily across more buoyant regions offshore. While an isolated thunderstorm can not be ruled out for the next few hours, lightning probabilities appear too low to warrant a categorical risk of thunderstorms the rest of tonight.
Lighting has decreased notably across the western Gulf basin in association with a weak disturbance lifting north toward deep South TX. 00z sounding at BRO does exhibit uninhibited SBCAPE, but loss of daytime heating and weak forcing does not appear particularly favorable for more than a rogue flash of lightning, and that is primarily over the next few hours.
..Darrow.. 12/23/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Tuesday, December 23
Outlook Summary
Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast across the contiguous United States on Tuesday or Tuesday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 221712
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast across the contiguous United States on Tuesday or Tuesday night.
Synopsis
An expansive and unseasonably strong upper ridge will dominate the mid and upper-level flow pattern across the CONUS Day2/Tuesday. As the ridge intensifies, troughing on the flanks of the ridge will also strengthen. The western most trough, and a mid-level shortwave trough embedded within it will likely reach the central and northern CA coastal areas late Tuesday night. Strong ascent and flow aloft will support a deepening surface low which will support onshore flow and some thunderstorm potential over much of coastal CA/OR.
West Coast
As the upper trough deepens over the West Coast, strong onshore flow will develop and support inland transport of low-level moisture across much of coast and the CA central Valley. Cooling mid-level temperatures and strong ascent associated with the embedded shortwave will overspread this air mass contributing to weak destabilization late Tuesday through early Wednesday. Low-topped convection, capable of occasional lightning, is expected to increase in coverage overnight. While a stronger storm is possible, especially along and ahead of the surface cold front, the scant buoyancy and overnight timing suggest severe potential is very low.
Elsewhere, moisture advection is likely over parts of the southern Plains and far south TX beneath the upper ridge as the surface reflection shifts eastward. Despite persistent southerly flow and increasing surface dewpoints, little to no ascent and warm mid-level temperatures should preclude thunderstorm development outside of far south TX.
..Lyons.. 12/22/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Wednesday, December 24
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday and Wednesday night across portions of California.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 221927
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF COASTAL CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday and Wednesday night across portions of California.
Synopsis
A pronounced upper ridge will remain anchored over the central and eastern US while strong troughing persists over the West Coast. A series of embedded impulses will move onshore Wednesday and Wednesday night, coincident with their attendant deepening surface lows. A cold front and persistent southwesterly low-level flow should support isolated thunderstorms over much of the West Coast through early Thursday.
California
As troughing deepens over the eastern Pacific, several embedded disturbances will propagate eastward overspreading modest low-level moisture from the CA coast to the central valley. Robust forcing for ascent and cold temperatures aloft (-24 to -26 C) overspreading 50s F dewpoints will likely support weak buoyancy along the southern CA coast and central Valley. A prolonged period of scattered showers and episodic periods of isolated thunderstorms are possible Wednesday morning and afternoon. Of these storms, sufficient CAPE, strong flow aloft and locally enlarged hodographs may allow for a few semi-organized/weakly rotating storms to mature. Sporadic damaging gusts, small hail and a brief tornado would be possible with the strongest storms before convection weakens into the evening and first part of the overnight hours.
Additional low-topped linear storms/localized squalls are also possible ahead of the advancing cold front near the immediate coastal portions of central and northern CA primarily late Wednesday into Wednesday night. A few strong gusts are possible, though instability should quickly decrease inland.
Elsewhere across the US, the prominent ridging will favor dry and unseasonably warm conditions with little potential for thunderstorms.
..Lyons.. 12/22/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Thursday, December 25
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, December 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, December 26 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, December 27 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, December 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, December 29 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220925 SPC AC 220925
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper-air pattern featuring a ridge over the central states will quickly transition to a more progressive flow regime towards early this weekend. Model guidance implies a split-flow regime potentially evolving with troughing over the Great Lakes towards the Sunday-Monday timeframe (D7-D8). Overall limited potential for organized severe seemingly exists for much of the extended period. Some indication for a moist sector evolving ahead of the amplifying Great Lakes' trough could yield some severe risk, but predictability is low and highly uncertain given model spread at this point in time.
..Smith.. 12/22/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, December 26
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, December 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, December 26 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, December 27 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, December 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, December 29 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220925 SPC AC 220925
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper-air pattern featuring a ridge over the central states will quickly transition to a more progressive flow regime towards early this weekend. Model guidance implies a split-flow regime potentially evolving with troughing over the Great Lakes towards the Sunday-Monday timeframe (D7-D8). Overall limited potential for organized severe seemingly exists for much of the extended period. Some indication for a moist sector evolving ahead of the amplifying Great Lakes' trough could yield some severe risk, but predictability is low and highly uncertain given model spread at this point in time.
..Smith.. 12/22/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, December 27
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, December 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, December 26 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, December 27 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, December 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, December 29 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220925 SPC AC 220925
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper-air pattern featuring a ridge over the central states will quickly transition to a more progressive flow regime towards early this weekend. Model guidance implies a split-flow regime potentially evolving with troughing over the Great Lakes towards the Sunday-Monday timeframe (D7-D8). Overall limited potential for organized severe seemingly exists for much of the extended period. Some indication for a moist sector evolving ahead of the amplifying Great Lakes' trough could yield some severe risk, but predictability is low and highly uncertain given model spread at this point in time.
..Smith.. 12/22/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, December 28
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, December 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, December 26 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, December 27 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, December 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, December 29 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220925 SPC AC 220925
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper-air pattern featuring a ridge over the central states will quickly transition to a more progressive flow regime towards early this weekend. Model guidance implies a split-flow regime potentially evolving with troughing over the Great Lakes towards the Sunday-Monday timeframe (D7-D8). Overall limited potential for organized severe seemingly exists for much of the extended period. Some indication for a moist sector evolving ahead of the amplifying Great Lakes' trough could yield some severe risk, but predictability is low and highly uncertain given model spread at this point in time.
..Smith.. 12/22/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, December 29
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, December 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, December 26 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, December 27 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, December 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, December 29 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220925 SPC AC 220925
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper-air pattern featuring a ridge over the central states will quickly transition to a more progressive flow regime towards early this weekend. Model guidance implies a split-flow regime potentially evolving with troughing over the Great Lakes towards the Sunday-Monday timeframe (D7-D8). Overall limited potential for organized severe seemingly exists for much of the extended period. Some indication for a moist sector evolving ahead of the amplifying Great Lakes' trough could yield some severe risk, but predictability is low and highly uncertain given model spread at this point in time.
..Smith.. 12/22/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, December 22
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, December 23
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Wednesday, December 24
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Thursday, December 25
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, December 26
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, December 27
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, December 28
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, December 29
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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