Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Monday, March 9

Tuesday, March 10

Wednesday, March 11

Thursday, March 12

Friday, March 13

Saturday, March 14

Sunday, March 15

Monday, March 16

Outlook for Monday, March 9

Outlook Summary

Large hail, damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes are possible this afternoon/evening from the Mid-South into northwest Georgia.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 5%

wind 15%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 091939

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026

Valid 092000Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF ARKANSAS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA

### SUMMARY

Large hail, damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes are possible this afternoon/evening from the Mid-South into northwest Georgia.

20Z Update

Two changes have been made to the outlook for this issuance. The first change is to trim southeast Oklahoma mostly out of thunder, and completely out of the hail and wind probabilities. The second change is to add thunder across parts of South Carolina and Georgia.

..Broyles.. 03/09/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026/

AR to north GA this afternoon/evening

A weak mid-upper speed max is cresting the larger-scale ridge and will move from AR to the TN Valley this afternoon/evening. Associated/ongoing convection across AR will likely persist through the afternoon with some tendency for upscale growth, while spreading eastward along the northern gradient of boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 60s. Surface heating in cloud breaks, beneath the eastern extent of 7-8 C/km midlevel lapse rates, will contribute to moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) along this corridor with minimal convective inhibition.

Deep-layer vertical shear will be sufficient for a somewhat organized/bowing storm cluster to evolve from the ongoing AR storms as they spread across the TN Valley this afternoon, potentially reaching northwest GA by late evening. The initial storms in the cluster will pose a threat for large hail (1-2"diameter), with some increase in the threat for wind damage from northern MS across northern AL/northwest GA. More discrete storms will be possible immediately south of the MCS path this afternoon/evening as a maritime tropical air mass (68-72 F dewpoints) spreads inland. Wind profiles will support supercells capable of producing large hail (some could exceed 2 inches in diameter). A modest increase in low-level shear this afternoon, combined with rich low-level moisture and the possibility of lingering convective outflow from the ongoing storms in AR will also support the potential for a couple of tornadoes.

Isolated thunderstorm development may also occur farther southwest along the marine warm front into southeast TX, where there is a conditional threat for large hail.

Southern AZ this afternoon/evening

High-based, low-topped convection is expected in the band of ascent immediately north-northeast of the closed low near northern Baja. Low-level moisture will be somewhat limited, but steep low-midlevel lapse rates and substantial south-southeasterly deep-layer shear will support a few storms/clusters capable of marginally severe hail and gusts approaching 60 mph.

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, March 10

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast on Tuesday from the southern Plains into the southern Great Lakes vicinity. All severe hazards are possible.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 10%

wind 30%

hail 30%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 091727

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA AND ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO CENTRAL TEXAS

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast on Tuesday from the southern Plains into the southern Great Lakes vicinity. All severe hazards are possible.

Synopsis

A bi-modal severe weather event is expected Tuesday afternoon and evening across the Mid-West and portions of central Texas. Mid-morning surface observations/analyses reveal a surface low migrating eastward across the upper Great Lakes with a trailing cold front draped southwestward into the central Plains. Weakening winds behind the front suggest that this boundary will begin to stall later today across the Midwest/central Plains. Meanwhile, returning moisture is forecast to spread north over the next 24 hours as surface pressure falls and southerly winds increase across the Plains with the approach of the upper trough currently meandering over Baja California and a slight amplification of the upper wave over the north-central CONUS. This will help establish an expansive warm sector from southern Texas northward into the central Plains and Great Lakes region, bounded to the north by the stalled frontal boundary and to the west by a weak dryline/Pacific front. Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected within this warm sector as ascent along the Midwest frontal zone and across the southern Plains increases with the ejection of the upper trough late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night.

Midwest

The greatest regional severe threat will likely be focused along the frontal boundary Tuesday afternoon and evening. Most guidance suggests the stalled cold front will advance northward as a warm front as low-level southerly flow increases within the warm conveyor belt of a developing cyclone over IA/northern MO, but the exact placement and orientation of the boundary, and any potential influence by cool lake-breezes off lower Lake Michigan, remain uncertain given spread between 12z CAM and global guidance.

Regardless, strong isentropic ascent over the frontal zone coupled with ample low-level moistening and steepening mid-level lapse rates will support a convective environment favorable for well-organized convection along both the warm front and southwestward along the cold front across northern MO and KS. Effective SRH on the order of 200-300 m2/s2 coupled with MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg along/just south of the boundary will support the potential for tornadoes - including strong tornadoes - with any discrete supercell that can become established. Convection developing north of the surface fronts will still reside in a very favorable environment for elevated supercells capable producing large/very large hail (possibly in excess of 2 inches). Upscale growth/clustering is expected through the evening hours, which should support an increase in severe winds. It remains somewhat unclear how quickly upscale growth will occur given along-boundary flow through a deep layer, and this may curtail the supercellular tornado threat if clustering occurs too quickly. However, based on latest forecast soundings and CAM guidance, the tornado potential will likely be greatest along the warm front across central IL between 21-02 UTC where low-level SRH and surface pressure falls/ascent will be maximized.

Southern Plains

12 UTC soundings across the southern Plains sampled steep mid-level lapse rates already in place across the region. The onset of deep moisture return is noted along the TX Coastal Plain, which should spread north across central TX into OK by Tuesday morning. Isentropic ascent within the warm sector may support isolated thunderstorm development by late morning across north TX into the Texarkana region where capping should be weaker. By late afternoon/early evening, more widespread thunderstorm development is expected across central TX as strong height falls associated with the ejecting upper wave overspread the region. Initially discrete supercells will be capable of all hazards, through very large (2+ inch) hail appears to be the most probable threat. Strong forcing for ascent will promote upscale growth through the evening with one or more bowing segments possible. Enlarging low-level hodographs associated with an increasing nocturnal jet may support embedded circulations within the developing squall line. 30% hail/wind probabilities were introduced to highlight the corridor of higher hail/wind threat from the Edwards Plateau into central TX.

..Moore.. 03/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, March 11

Outlook Summary

Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday from the ArkLaTex and Lower Mississippi Valley northeastward through the Ohio Valley vicinity.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 091925

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday from the ArkLaTex and Lower Mississippi Valley northeastward through the Ohio Valley vicinity.

Synopsis

Strong to severe thunderstorms are probable across an expansive warm sector stretching from the Gulf Coast northward into the upper Ohio Valley region. The amplification of an upper wave over the northern CONUS will support steady intensification of a surface cyclone as it migrates from the Great Lakes region into southeast Quebec by 12 UTC Thursday. An attendant cold front will push across the MS Valley into the upper OH Valley and Southeast states during the forecast period, and will act as the primary foci for thunderstorm development.

East Texas into the Lower MS Valley

Thunderstorm clusters and/or convective bands will likely be ongoing, albeit weakening, across the eastern TX/OK at the start of the forecast period. A combination of daytime heating, ascent ahead of a southern-stream upper trough, and forcing along the approaching cold front should promote an uptick in convective intensity and coverage by late morning/early afternoon across LA and MS. Storm-motion vectors largely along the front will maintain a linear storm mode and support primarily a severe wind threat. The severe threat may be maximized during the late morning/early afternoon hours as buoyancy increases but before low to mid-level flow decreases as the synoptic low accelerates away to the northeast.

OH Valley

Low-level moisture and a remnant EML will continue to spread north/northeast in tandem with the translation of the surface low. This should support adequate buoyancy within a narrow, but migratory, warm sector for surface-based convection. Strong flow in proximity to the surface low/upper jet will promote organized convection along the front, most likely organized clusters and lines capable of severe gusts and perhaps embedded circulations. Recent extended-range RRFS solutions hint at the development of pre-frontal supercells within a diffuse plume of low-level theta-e advection across the upper OH Valley. Forecast soundings from this region suggest that tornadic supercells are possible. Other guidance also depicts this plume of theta-e advection, which lends some credence to this scenario. However, the RRFS is typically overly aggressive with convective intensity, and recent MPAS solutions are less bullish on deep convection ahead of the front where mostly cloudy skies should limit diurnal insolation to some degree. This uncertainty precludes the introduction of higher risk probabilities, but trends will be monitored for a more robust severe threat within this regime.

..Moore.. 03/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Thursday, March 12

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, March 12	predictability too low
Day 5	Friday, March 13	potential too low
Day 6	Saturday, March 14	potential too low
Day 7	Sunday, March 15	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, March 16	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090831 SPC AC 090831

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Thu

Some low-end severe thunderstorm risk could persist into Day 4/Thu across portions of the Southeast as an upper trough pivots toward the Atlantic coast in tandem with an eastward-advancing surface cold front. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place from GA/FL northeast toward southeast VA. Convection will likely be ongoing Thursday morning, and persistent warm advection will result in widespread cloudiness. This will limit destabilization and lapse rates are expected to remain modest. Overall, severe potential appears less than 15 percent.

Days 5-8/Fri-Mon

Severe thunderstorm potential appears low Friday and Saturday as a prior cold frontal passage into the Gulf leaves a dearth of boundary layer moisture in its wake. Another upper trough is expected to deepen over the Plains and the eastern U.S. late in the period. Some moisture return may occur ahead of this feature before another cold front develops southeast across the eastern half of the CONUS. This could bring some increasing thunderstorm potential to parts of the south-central or southeast U.S., however, at this time any better moisture return looks displaced to the south of stronger flow aloft.

..Leitman.. 03/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Friday, March 13

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, March 12	predictability too low
Day 5	Friday, March 13	potential too low
Day 6	Saturday, March 14	potential too low
Day 7	Sunday, March 15	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, March 16	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090831 SPC AC 090831

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Thu

Some low-end severe thunderstorm risk could persist into Day 4/Thu across portions of the Southeast as an upper trough pivots toward the Atlantic coast in tandem with an eastward-advancing surface cold front. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place from GA/FL northeast toward southeast VA. Convection will likely be ongoing Thursday morning, and persistent warm advection will result in widespread cloudiness. This will limit destabilization and lapse rates are expected to remain modest. Overall, severe potential appears less than 15 percent.

Days 5-8/Fri-Mon

Severe thunderstorm potential appears low Friday and Saturday as a prior cold frontal passage into the Gulf leaves a dearth of boundary layer moisture in its wake. Another upper trough is expected to deepen over the Plains and the eastern U.S. late in the period. Some moisture return may occur ahead of this feature before another cold front develops southeast across the eastern half of the CONUS. This could bring some increasing thunderstorm potential to parts of the south-central or southeast U.S., however, at this time any better moisture return looks displaced to the south of stronger flow aloft.

..Leitman.. 03/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, March 14

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, March 12	predictability too low
Day 5	Friday, March 13	potential too low
Day 6	Saturday, March 14	potential too low
Day 7	Sunday, March 15	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, March 16	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090831 SPC AC 090831

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Thu

Some low-end severe thunderstorm risk could persist into Day 4/Thu across portions of the Southeast as an upper trough pivots toward the Atlantic coast in tandem with an eastward-advancing surface cold front. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place from GA/FL northeast toward southeast VA. Convection will likely be ongoing Thursday morning, and persistent warm advection will result in widespread cloudiness. This will limit destabilization and lapse rates are expected to remain modest. Overall, severe potential appears less than 15 percent.

Days 5-8/Fri-Mon

Severe thunderstorm potential appears low Friday and Saturday as a prior cold frontal passage into the Gulf leaves a dearth of boundary layer moisture in its wake. Another upper trough is expected to deepen over the Plains and the eastern U.S. late in the period. Some moisture return may occur ahead of this feature before another cold front develops southeast across the eastern half of the CONUS. This could bring some increasing thunderstorm potential to parts of the south-central or southeast U.S., however, at this time any better moisture return looks displaced to the south of stronger flow aloft.

..Leitman.. 03/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Sunday, March 15

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, March 12	predictability too low
Day 5	Friday, March 13	potential too low
Day 6	Saturday, March 14	potential too low
Day 7	Sunday, March 15	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, March 16	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090831 SPC AC 090831

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Thu

Some low-end severe thunderstorm risk could persist into Day 4/Thu across portions of the Southeast as an upper trough pivots toward the Atlantic coast in tandem with an eastward-advancing surface cold front. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place from GA/FL northeast toward southeast VA. Convection will likely be ongoing Thursday morning, and persistent warm advection will result in widespread cloudiness. This will limit destabilization and lapse rates are expected to remain modest. Overall, severe potential appears less than 15 percent.

Days 5-8/Fri-Mon

Severe thunderstorm potential appears low Friday and Saturday as a prior cold frontal passage into the Gulf leaves a dearth of boundary layer moisture in its wake. Another upper trough is expected to deepen over the Plains and the eastern U.S. late in the period. Some moisture return may occur ahead of this feature before another cold front develops southeast across the eastern half of the CONUS. This could bring some increasing thunderstorm potential to parts of the south-central or southeast U.S., however, at this time any better moisture return looks displaced to the south of stronger flow aloft.

..Leitman.. 03/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Monday, March 16

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, March 12	predictability too low
Day 5	Friday, March 13	potential too low
Day 6	Saturday, March 14	potential too low
Day 7	Sunday, March 15	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, March 16	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090831 SPC AC 090831

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Thu

Some low-end severe thunderstorm risk could persist into Day 4/Thu across portions of the Southeast as an upper trough pivots toward the Atlantic coast in tandem with an eastward-advancing surface cold front. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place from GA/FL northeast toward southeast VA. Convection will likely be ongoing Thursday morning, and persistent warm advection will result in widespread cloudiness. This will limit destabilization and lapse rates are expected to remain modest. Overall, severe potential appears less than 15 percent.

Days 5-8/Fri-Mon

Severe thunderstorm potential appears low Friday and Saturday as a prior cold frontal passage into the Gulf leaves a dearth of boundary layer moisture in its wake. Another upper trough is expected to deepen over the Plains and the eastern U.S. late in the period. Some moisture return may occur ahead of this feature before another cold front develops southeast across the eastern half of the CONUS. This could bring some increasing thunderstorm potential to parts of the south-central or southeast U.S., however, at this time any better moisture return looks displaced to the south of stronger flow aloft.

..Leitman.. 03/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

National Risk Overview

Monday, March 9: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Tuesday, March 10: TORNADO: 10%; HAIL: 30%; WIND: 30%
Wednesday, March 11: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Thursday, March 12: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, March 13: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, March 14: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, March 15: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, March 16: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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