Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, July 7
Outlook Summary
Widely scattered to scattered severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are possible from the northern High Plains into parts of the Upper Midwest today into tonight. Isolated severe storms capable of mainly damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon and evening from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas, the Sabine River Valley, parts of the Great Basin, and southeast Arizona.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 071618
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026
Valid 071630Z - 081200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO MINNESOTA.
CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINES
SUMMARY
Widely scattered to scattered severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are possible from the northern High Plains into parts of the Upper Midwest today into tonight. Isolated severe storms capable of mainly damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon and evening from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas, the Sabine River Valley, parts of the Great Basin, and southeast Arizona.
Dakotas/MN
A broad upper ridge is present today over much of the Rockies and Plains states, with moderately strong winds aloft topping the ridge over the Dakotas. A surface boundary will lift slightly northward and extend from the Black Hills region into western MN by evening, with a very unstable air mass expected to the south. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across southeast MT/eastern WY by late afternoon ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. These storms will intensify as they build into the greater moisture/instability in place across SD. Sufficient deep-layer shear and convergence near the boundary will promote supercell storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. If sufficient organization can occur with these storms, there is some risk of a linear MCS tracking eastward through the evening across northern SD/southern ND into western MN with a risk of damaging winds.
Ongoing storms over northeast SD may also persist, along with new development this afternoon along the boundary. These storms could also pose a risk of damaging winds and hail.
VA/NC
Visible satellite imagery shows substantial cloud cover over northern/central VA, but mostly clear skies from southern VA into NC. Areas of strong heating will again be at risk of strong storms producing occasional damaging wind gusts this afternoon.
TX/LA
Strong afternoon thunderstorms are possible again this afternoon in vicinity of a weak upper trough over the ArkLaTex region. Locally damaging wind gusts are the main risk.
..Hart/Squitieri.. 07/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Wednesday, July 8
Outlook Summary
Clusters of strong thunderstorms with potential to produce severe hail and wind may evolve across parts of the Upper Midwest into central Great Plains Wednesday through Wednesday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 071636
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS…AND UPPER MIDWEST
### SUMMARY
Clusters of strong thunderstorms with potential to produce severe hail and wind may evolve across parts of the Upper Midwest into central Great Plains Wednesday through Wednesday night.
MN…WI…IA
As the tail end of a shortwave trough sweeps across the region, storms will likely be ongoing Wed morning near and north of a quasi-stationary front extending from southern MN into northern WI and MI, in an area of veered 850 mb winds providing a feed of elevated instability. This activity should transition to surface based during the day as heating occurs to the south of the boundary, with area of damaging wind potential.
Additional storms likely to develop during the afternoon farther southwest along the front, where moderate instability and marginal shear will exist. Some clusters of storms may produce damaging wind gusts, and isolated marginal hail may occur.
Central Plains
Weak height falls may occur late in the day into the northern and central Plains as a weak disturbance moves across the northern Rockies. Low pressure is likely to develop into western KS, with weak lee troughing into eastern WY. Relatively cool midlevel temperatures, sufficient moisture and east/northeast surface winds suggest a corridor of afternoon storms over the from eastern WY into CO, with 30 kt effective shear supporting areas of hail and locally damaging gusts. Some of this activity may cluster and move into NE and KS overnight, possibly linking with other storms as they propagate southwestward along the boundary in eastern to southern NE. Area of damaging wind gusts appear most likely.
..Jewell.. 07/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Thursday, July 9
Outlook Summary
Scattered strong thunderstorm development, potentially including a few evolving clusters, may impact portions of the central Great Plains through middle Mississippi Valley and parts of the Mid Atlantic Thursday through Thursday night. Much more isolated strong storms may impact parts of central North Dakota late Thursday afternoon into evening.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 070733
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS THROUGH MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY…PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC
### SUMMARY
Scattered strong thunderstorm development, potentially including a few evolving clusters, may impact portions of the central Great Plains through middle Mississippi Valley and parts of the Mid Atlantic Thursday through Thursday night. Much more isolated strong storms may impact parts of central North Dakota late Thursday afternoon into evening.
Discussion
Modest mid-latitude westerlies are forecast to remain centered near the Canadian/U.S border through this period. In the wake of one short wave trough slowly continuing to pivot northward into the Northwest Territories, and ahead of another digging near the British Columbia coast, broad mid-level ridging is forecast to build along the central Canadian/U.S. border Thursday through Thursday night. Downstream, to the south of a perturbation digging southeast of the Hudson/James Bays, broad mid-level troughing is forecast to overspread the lower Great Lakes through northern Atlantic Seaboard.
In lower latitudes, models suggest that a number of more subtle perturbations, a couple of which may generated or strengthened by convection, will progress through otherwise weak, zonal flow around the northern periphery of mid-level ridging centered in the subtropics. It appears that the most substantive thunderstorm development through this period will focus along this corridor, roughly east of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains into portions of the middle Mississippi Valley, and across portions of the Mid Atlantic.
Front Range through middle Mississippi Valley
The 07/00Z NAM is most prominent in generating a notable MCV by 12Z Thursday, associated with thunderstorm development across the central Great Plains Wednesday night. And it substantively intensifies this feature as it migrates across the lower Missouri/middle Mississippi Valleys Thursday through Thursday night. This includes a strengthening jet to 50-70 kt around 700 mb, suggesting the existence of intensifying organized convective system with the potential to produce swaths of damaging surface gusts. This is much stronger than what is generated by the ECMWF, with the GFS indicating a perturbation between these extremes.
Given the potential for a moist boundary layer with seasonably high moisture content, including lower/mid 70s F, it does appear that there may be sufficient CAPE to support the evolution of a significant severe convective system. However, the predictability of this type of feature in this type of regime at this extended range is relatively low, and reflected in the guidance. At this point severe probabilities will be introduced at 5 percent, but this will change if the consensus of guidance trends in the current direction of the NAM.
Otherwise, destabilization to the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains will probably depend on the extent of stabilizing outflow left across the central Great Plains at the outset of the period. However, at least the eastern slopes into adjacent high plans may become a focus for scattered strong thunderstorm development posing a risk for severe hail and wind by late afternoon. A remnant baroclinic zone associated with the convective outflow across Missouri into Kansas may provide another focus for strong to severe thunderstorm development late Thursday evening into Thursday night, near the nose of a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet.
Mid Atlantic
Destabilization to the lee of the Blue Ridge Mountains (centered across Virginia Thursday) may again become sufficient to support convection with potential to produce strong wind gusts and grow upscale, aided by forcing for ascent associated with a remnant short wave impulse emerging from the Tennessee Valley.
..Kerr.. 07/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Friday, July 10
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, July 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, July 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, July 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, July 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, July 14 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070906 SPC AC 070906
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
CORRECTED FOR SPELLING
DISCUSSION
Medium-range model output continues to indicate the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid/upper high across the lower Colorado Valley and Plateau late this week into next weekend. It appears likely that this will continue expanding and encompassing a significant portion of the interior U.S. by early next week, as an evolving larger-scale trough begins to dig across and southeast of Hudson Bay. While there appears relatively small spread within and among the various model output concerning this larger-scale evolution, there is considerable spread concerning the migration of one particularly notable short wave trough around the periphery of the ridge.
Of particular concern, it appears probable that a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air will advect along the southern fringe of a belt of intensifying flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of the mid/upper ridge. As it does, coupled with low-level moistening, this type of regime could support the periodic evolution of organizing clusters, potentially including one or two potentially long-lived, accompanied by swaths of damaging surface gusts.
It appears that this could focus anywhere from near and north of the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity through the Great Lakes into the Northeast by early next week. However, due to lingering uncertainty with the synoptic developments, and the generally low predictability of these mesoscale systems, in this type of regime at this extended range, severe probabilities still appear less than 15 percent. However, depending on model trends, this could change in later outlooks for this period.
..Kerr.. 07/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, July 11
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, July 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, July 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, July 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, July 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, July 14 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070906 SPC AC 070906
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
CORRECTED FOR SPELLING
DISCUSSION
Medium-range model output continues to indicate the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid/upper high across the lower Colorado Valley and Plateau late this week into next weekend. It appears likely that this will continue expanding and encompassing a significant portion of the interior U.S. by early next week, as an evolving larger-scale trough begins to dig across and southeast of Hudson Bay. While there appears relatively small spread within and among the various model output concerning this larger-scale evolution, there is considerable spread concerning the migration of one particularly notable short wave trough around the periphery of the ridge.
Of particular concern, it appears probable that a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air will advect along the southern fringe of a belt of intensifying flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of the mid/upper ridge. As it does, coupled with low-level moistening, this type of regime could support the periodic evolution of organizing clusters, potentially including one or two potentially long-lived, accompanied by swaths of damaging surface gusts.
It appears that this could focus anywhere from near and north of the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity through the Great Lakes into the Northeast by early next week. However, due to lingering uncertainty with the synoptic developments, and the generally low predictability of these mesoscale systems, in this type of regime at this extended range, severe probabilities still appear less than 15 percent. However, depending on model trends, this could change in later outlooks for this period.
..Kerr.. 07/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, July 12
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, July 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, July 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, July 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, July 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, July 14 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070906 SPC AC 070906
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
CORRECTED FOR SPELLING
DISCUSSION
Medium-range model output continues to indicate the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid/upper high across the lower Colorado Valley and Plateau late this week into next weekend. It appears likely that this will continue expanding and encompassing a significant portion of the interior U.S. by early next week, as an evolving larger-scale trough begins to dig across and southeast of Hudson Bay. While there appears relatively small spread within and among the various model output concerning this larger-scale evolution, there is considerable spread concerning the migration of one particularly notable short wave trough around the periphery of the ridge.
Of particular concern, it appears probable that a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air will advect along the southern fringe of a belt of intensifying flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of the mid/upper ridge. As it does, coupled with low-level moistening, this type of regime could support the periodic evolution of organizing clusters, potentially including one or two potentially long-lived, accompanied by swaths of damaging surface gusts.
It appears that this could focus anywhere from near and north of the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity through the Great Lakes into the Northeast by early next week. However, due to lingering uncertainty with the synoptic developments, and the generally low predictability of these mesoscale systems, in this type of regime at this extended range, severe probabilities still appear less than 15 percent. However, depending on model trends, this could change in later outlooks for this period.
..Kerr.. 07/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, July 13
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, July 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, July 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, July 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, July 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, July 14 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070906 SPC AC 070906
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
CORRECTED FOR SPELLING
DISCUSSION
Medium-range model output continues to indicate the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid/upper high across the lower Colorado Valley and Plateau late this week into next weekend. It appears likely that this will continue expanding and encompassing a significant portion of the interior U.S. by early next week, as an evolving larger-scale trough begins to dig across and southeast of Hudson Bay. While there appears relatively small spread within and among the various model output concerning this larger-scale evolution, there is considerable spread concerning the migration of one particularly notable short wave trough around the periphery of the ridge.
Of particular concern, it appears probable that a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air will advect along the southern fringe of a belt of intensifying flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of the mid/upper ridge. As it does, coupled with low-level moistening, this type of regime could support the periodic evolution of organizing clusters, potentially including one or two potentially long-lived, accompanied by swaths of damaging surface gusts.
It appears that this could focus anywhere from near and north of the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity through the Great Lakes into the Northeast by early next week. However, due to lingering uncertainty with the synoptic developments, and the generally low predictability of these mesoscale systems, in this type of regime at this extended range, severe probabilities still appear less than 15 percent. However, depending on model trends, this could change in later outlooks for this period.
..Kerr.. 07/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, July 14
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, July 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, July 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, July 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, July 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, July 14 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070906 SPC AC 070906
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
CORRECTED FOR SPELLING
DISCUSSION
Medium-range model output continues to indicate the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid/upper high across the lower Colorado Valley and Plateau late this week into next weekend. It appears likely that this will continue expanding and encompassing a significant portion of the interior U.S. by early next week, as an evolving larger-scale trough begins to dig across and southeast of Hudson Bay. While there appears relatively small spread within and among the various model output concerning this larger-scale evolution, there is considerable spread concerning the migration of one particularly notable short wave trough around the periphery of the ridge.
Of particular concern, it appears probable that a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air will advect along the southern fringe of a belt of intensifying flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of the mid/upper ridge. As it does, coupled with low-level moistening, this type of regime could support the periodic evolution of organizing clusters, potentially including one or two potentially long-lived, accompanied by swaths of damaging surface gusts.
It appears that this could focus anywhere from near and north of the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity through the Great Lakes into the Northeast by early next week. However, due to lingering uncertainty with the synoptic developments, and the generally low predictability of these mesoscale systems, in this type of regime at this extended range, severe probabilities still appear less than 15 percent. However, depending on model trends, this could change in later outlooks for this period.
..Kerr.. 07/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, July 7
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Wednesday, July 8
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Thursday, July 9
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Friday, July 10
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, July 11
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, July 12
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, July 13
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, July 14
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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