Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, September 3
Outlook Summary
Scattered strong thunderstorm development is likely today through tonight, perhaps including a few organizing clusters, posing a risk for severe wind and hail across parts of the southern Great Lakes into Mid Atlantic and portions of the northern Great Plains into Upper Midwest.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 030553
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Thu Sep 03 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO MID ATLANTIC AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Scattered strong thunderstorm development is likely today through tonight, perhaps including a few organizing clusters, posing a risk for severe wind and hail across parts of the southern Great Lakes into Mid Atlantic and portions of the northern Great Plains into Upper Midwest.
Discussion
Large-scale mid-level troughing has overspread much of the Pacific coast through the Rockies. However, models indicate that further eastward progress will slow, as at least one significant embedded short wave trough digs offshore and contributes to amplification of the larger-scale trough near and offshore of the Pacific coast. As this occurs, downstream ridging is forecast to build across the northern Great Plains/middle Missouri Valley vicinity by late tonight, in the wake of a short wave trough now emerging from the Great Basin and forecast to progress north-northeast of the northern Rockies through the eastern Canadian Prairies and northwestern Ontario. Farther east, it appears that mid-level troughing and an embedded remnant low will slowly dig southeast of western Quebec/southern Ontario through the northern Atlantic Seaboard.
A surface cold front accompanying the eastern Canadian perturbation is preceded by considerable ongoing thunderstorm activity overspreading the northern Mid Atlantic through Lake Erie vicinity. It appears that an outflow boundary associated with this convection may become quasi-stationary across parts of southeastern Pennsylvania/New Jersey, before the initially stalled upstream front, across southern portions of the Great Lakes vicinity into Upper Midwest, advances southeast of the lower Great Lakes through much of the northern Mid Atlantic and upper Ohio Valley by late tonight.
Southern Great Lakes into northern Mid Atlantic
The initially stalled composite outflow boundary and surface front appear likely to provide the focus for renewed thunderstorm development later today through tonight. Across the southeastern Wisconsin through southern Lower Michigan/northern Indiana and Ohio vicinity, it appears that the corridor of stronger destabilization along this boundary will remain in relatively close proximity to the southern fringe of the westerlies. East-southeastward into the northern Mid Atlantic this remains more unclear.
Regardless, where the seasonably moist boundary layer becomes strongly heated, thermodynamic profiles a bit further aloft into mid-levels, aided by elevated mixed-layer air, will remain characterized by steep lapse rates of temperature and potential wet-bulb temperature. This will promote the risk for strong downbursts and evolving cold pools capable of producing strong to severe wind gusts in developing thunderstorm activity.
There appears potential for one or two organizing clusters across and east-southeast of the southern Great Lakes region this afternoon into tonight. It is possible that severe wind probabilities could still be increased further, once forcing for convection and the potential negative impacts of early day convection become clearer.
Northern Great Plains into Upper Midwest
Forcing for ascent, near and downstream of the short wave emerging from the Great Basin, appears likely to overspread northern/eastern North Dakota into northwestern Minnesota during peak boundary-layer instability this afternoon and evening. Latest convection-allowing guidance suggests that this will provide support for intensifying thunderstorm development, which may include a few supercells in the leading warm advection regime, ahead of a possible upscale growing cluster near the crest of the building larger-scale mid-level ridging. Aided by pronounced veering of lower through mid-level wind fields, deep-layer shear appears conducive to the risk for large hail, in the presence of thermodynamic profiles with steep mid-level lapse rates and large CAPE in mid/upper levels. A few strong downbursts also appear possible.
..Kerr/Wendt.. 09/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Friday, September 4
Outlook Summary
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms, mainly producing damaging gusts, are expected across portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic on Friday. More isolated severe storms capable of severe winds and large hail may occur over parts of the Midwest Friday afternoon into night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 030542
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Thu Sep 03 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC
### SUMMARY
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms, mainly producing damaging gusts, are expected across portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic on Friday. More isolated severe storms capable of severe winds and large hail may occur over parts of the Midwest Friday afternoon into night.
Synopsis
Upper ridging will amplify over the Plains states, with upper troughs meandering over the Interior West and along the East Coast. East of the ridge crest, multiple impulses will track southeastward across the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic, atop a surface warm frontal boundary, serving as the impetus for thunderstorm initiation in these areas. Given modestly stronger flow and cooler temperatures aloft overspreading this moisture-rich surface boundary, a few storms may become severe.
Portions of the Mid-Atlantic
At least one or more subtle mid-level impulses will pivot around the broader East Coast trough, supporting scattered thunderstorm initiation by afternoon. By this time, surface temperatures should reach 90 F, amid 70 F dewpoints, yielding around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE given 6.5-7 C/km mid-level lapse rates. Deep-layer northwesterly flow will be in place, supporting 20-40 kts of effective bulk (speed shear), favoring multicells and perhaps a transient supercell, the strongest of which may produce damaging gusts or an instance of hail.
Portions of the Midwest to Ohio Valley… Upper support for convective initiation will be even weaker across the Midwest/OH Valley compared to the areas closer to the East Coast. Nonetheless, 70s F surface dewpoints beneath 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates will contribute to 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE along a surface warm front, where subtle convergence will reside. Thunderstorm coverage should be quite isolated. However, any storms that manage to mature may become multicellular or supercellular given 30+ kts of effective bulk shear in place. An instance or two of severe wind or hail are possible.
..Squitieri.. 09/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Saturday, September 5
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms producing scattered damaging gusts are possible across portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic on Saturday. A couple instances of severe wind/hail with isolated thunderstorms may also occur across portions of the Ohio Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 030718
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Thu Sep 03 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH CAROLINA INTO NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND EXTREME EASTERN TENNESSEE
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms producing scattered damaging gusts are possible across portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic on Saturday. A couple instances of severe wind/hail with isolated thunderstorms may also occur across portions of the Ohio Valley.
Synopsis
An upper ridge will persevere across the Plains states, with upper troughs remaining in place across the Interior West and East Coast. Similar to Day 2, the best chance for severe thunderstorms will be primarily constrained to the eastern CONUS, where subtle mid-level impulses will overspread rich low-level moisture, contributing to enough buoyancy and vertical wind shear to encourage damaging wind production with the stronger storms.
OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic Coastline
At least one mid-level impulse will traverse the OH Valley to NC corridor on Saturday, perhaps accompanied by a morning cluster of thunderstorms. Regardless, the impulse is poised to reach the lee of the Appalachians by Saturday afternoon, where upper 60s to lower 70s F surface dewpoints await. By this time, boundary layer mixing will encourage either the intensification of ongoing storms with the approaching impulse, the development of new storms, or both, all along a differential heating zone left behind by previous day's storms. 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE will be in place, along with 30+ kts of effective bulk shear driven by modest northwesterly flow aloft. Multicells are the expected storm mode, with severe gusts and perhaps an instance or two of hail.
Farther to the northwest, strong surface heating along an effective warm front, characterized by mid 70s F surface dewpoints beneath 6.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates (hence 2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) will encourage isolated thunderstorm development across portions of the OH Valley. Vertical shear and ascent should be relatively weak, so the severe threat should be sparse. Nonetheless, any storms that mature and sustain themselves may pose a severe wind/hail threat.
..Squitieri.. 09/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Sunday, September 6
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, September 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, September 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, September 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, September 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, September 10 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030738 SPC AC 030738
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 AM CDT Thu Sep 03 2026
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough will persist across the central CONUS through early next week, before gradually weakening in favor of more amplified, progressive upper troughs. Through the beginning of next week, a few impulses ejecting into the northern Plains may be accompanied by enough buoyancy and vertical wind shear to support an isolated severe threat. However, confidence is too low to delineate a more focused severe threat at this time. Likewise, there is a lack of consensus among medium-range deterministic and ML/AI guidance regarding the track and timing of any particular shortwave upper trough later next week, precluding the introduction of any severe probabilities this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 09/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, September 7
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, September 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, September 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, September 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, September 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, September 10 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030738 SPC AC 030738
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 AM CDT Thu Sep 03 2026
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough will persist across the central CONUS through early next week, before gradually weakening in favor of more amplified, progressive upper troughs. Through the beginning of next week, a few impulses ejecting into the northern Plains may be accompanied by enough buoyancy and vertical wind shear to support an isolated severe threat. However, confidence is too low to delineate a more focused severe threat at this time. Likewise, there is a lack of consensus among medium-range deterministic and ML/AI guidance regarding the track and timing of any particular shortwave upper trough later next week, precluding the introduction of any severe probabilities this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 09/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, September 8
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, September 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, September 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, September 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, September 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, September 10 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030738 SPC AC 030738
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 AM CDT Thu Sep 03 2026
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough will persist across the central CONUS through early next week, before gradually weakening in favor of more amplified, progressive upper troughs. Through the beginning of next week, a few impulses ejecting into the northern Plains may be accompanied by enough buoyancy and vertical wind shear to support an isolated severe threat. However, confidence is too low to delineate a more focused severe threat at this time. Likewise, there is a lack of consensus among medium-range deterministic and ML/AI guidance regarding the track and timing of any particular shortwave upper trough later next week, precluding the introduction of any severe probabilities this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 09/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, September 9
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, September 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, September 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, September 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, September 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, September 10 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030738 SPC AC 030738
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 AM CDT Thu Sep 03 2026
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough will persist across the central CONUS through early next week, before gradually weakening in favor of more amplified, progressive upper troughs. Through the beginning of next week, a few impulses ejecting into the northern Plains may be accompanied by enough buoyancy and vertical wind shear to support an isolated severe threat. However, confidence is too low to delineate a more focused severe threat at this time. Likewise, there is a lack of consensus among medium-range deterministic and ML/AI guidance regarding the track and timing of any particular shortwave upper trough later next week, precluding the introduction of any severe probabilities this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 09/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, September 10
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, September 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, September 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, September 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, September 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, September 10 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030738 SPC AC 030738
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 AM CDT Thu Sep 03 2026
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough will persist across the central CONUS through early next week, before gradually weakening in favor of more amplified, progressive upper troughs. Through the beginning of next week, a few impulses ejecting into the northern Plains may be accompanied by enough buoyancy and vertical wind shear to support an isolated severe threat. However, confidence is too low to delineate a more focused severe threat at this time. Likewise, there is a lack of consensus among medium-range deterministic and ML/AI guidance regarding the track and timing of any particular shortwave upper trough later next week, precluding the introduction of any severe probabilities this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 09/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, September 3
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Friday, September 4
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Saturday, September 5
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Sunday, September 6
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, September 7
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, September 8
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, September 9
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, September 10
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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