Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, May 4
Outlook Summary
Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging wind are possible across portions of the Midwest late Monday afternoon into Monday night. A conditional threat for severe storms with large to very large hail extends into portions of the central/southern Plains.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 040558
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging wind are possible across portions of the Midwest late Monday afternoon into Monday night. A conditional threat for severe storms with large to very large hail extends into portions of the central/southern Plains.
Synopsis
Strengthening mid-level flow will move out of Canada today, deepening the Eastern US trough, with a surface low developing across Ontario and a cold front shifting south across the northern Plains into the central Plains and Midwest. Across the west, flow will strengthen in within a cutoff low just off the shore of California before overspreading portions of the Southwest into the Southern Plains. A surface low is expected to develop across Kansas, with a dryline extending south into Oklahoma/north Texas. Areas of strong to severe storms will be possible from the Midwest into portions of eastern Kansas and south into Oklahoma/northern Texas.
Eastern Kansas into Mid-Mississippi Valley
Thunderstorm development will likely be delayed until the late afternoon/evening across eastern Kansas into Missouri owing to strong MLCIN and generally weak forcing. Daytime heating and dew points in the mid 50s to 60s should yield moderate MLCAPE across a region from eastern Kansas northward into Missouri and western Illinois. As the low-level jet increases into the evening with the cold front shifting south, scattered thunderstorm development is expected. Initially, strongly sheared profiles and steep lapse rates will support supercells capable of large hail and damaging wind, primarily across eastern Kansas. Through time as additional storms develop and cluster along the front, the risk for damaging wind may increase. A few CAM members suggest a few clusters/bowing segments may move across northern Missouri and west-central Illinois, though there is disagreement in location/timing. A corridor of higher wind probabilities and upgrade to Slight may be warranted as details become clearer.
Lower Great Lakes Vicinity
Scattered thunderstorm development will continue further north into the Great Lakes region along the cold front. Moisture becomes more limited with northern extent which may limit the severe threat. However, strong flow aloft and steep lapse rates may still support downward mixing and swaths of strong to severe wind.
South-central Kansas into Oklahoma and northern Texas
A more conditional threat for storms will exist along the dryline across southern Kansas into central Oklahoma and northern Texas. Strong daytime heating is expected across this region along and behind the dryline. Forecast sounding comparison indicates the dryline circulation will be strong and deep through the afternoon. Mid-level capping will likely inhibit convection until stronger flow aloft overspreads the region by the late afternoon/evening. The low-level jet will also strengthen at this time, with MLCIN eroding. It is possible that an isolated supercell or two could develop and produce large to very large hail (some 2+ inches). The best signal for this is near the Red River in southern Oklahoma/northern Texas. However, a few members do have development further north across northern Oklahoma and into southeastern Kansas.
..Thornton/Lyons.. 05/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Tuesday, May 5
Outlook Summary
Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening across portions of eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas into the Mid-South. Additional strong storms are possible across parts of the Northeast.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 040533
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS…SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA…ARKANSAS…AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
### SUMMARY
Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening across portions of eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas into the Mid-South. Additional strong storms are possible across parts of the Northeast.
Synopsis
Upper troughing centered on the north-central U.S. will phase with an upper shortwave trough over the Southwest on Tuesday. As this occurs, strong deep-layer west/southwesterly flow will develop across the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to extend from southern Lower MI to a surface low over central OK. A dryline will extend southwestward from the central OK low into central/southwest TX. The cold front is expected to develop east/southeast through the period, becoming oriented from the Northeast to southern AR and northern TX by Wednesday morning. Two areas of severe potential are expected to be focused ahead of the surface cold front, one across parts of the southern Plains to the Mid-South and the second across the Northeast.
Southern Plains to the Mid-South
Southerly low-level flow will transport 60s F dewpoints northward to the east of the surface dryline and as far north as the MO Bootheel vicinity. Some morning convection or cloud cover is expected across parts of southern MO toward the MO/OH River confluence. Persistent warm advection may result in scattered cloudiness across much of the ArkLaTex and Ozarks vicinity as well. Nevertheless, modest cooling aloft by late afternoon will aid in steepening midlevel lapse rates atop the moist boundary layer, supporting MLCAPE in the 1000-2000 J/kg range. Instability will decrease with northeast extent into the Mid-South. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by late afternoon ahead of the surface cold front. Convection may tend to become linear more quickly across the Mid-South where shear vectors are parallel to the surface boundary. Further south across parts of AR into northeast TX closer to the surface triple point, low-level flow may be less veered and shear vectors supporting initially discrete cells. Any convection that can remain semi-discrete/cellular will pose a risk for large hail, strong wind gusts, and a tornado or two. With time, convection will evolve into linear segments as a low-level jet increases and the front begins to develop southeastward.
The risk is more conditional along the dryline with southwestward extent across TX. Forcing for ascent will be weaker across this area and the main initiation mechanism will be mixing/dryline circulations. If storms can develop, hail and strong gusts will be possible.
Northeast
A shortwave upper trough over the Great Lakes will develop east/northeast across Ontario and Quebec through the evening. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the Northeast as this occurs. Boundary layer moisture will be modest, with dewpoints generally in the 40s to low 50s. However, cold temperatures aloft will foster steep midlevel lapse rates, supporting modest destabilization during the afternoon/evening (generally less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE). Increasing large-scale ascent and the approach of the surface boundary will result in isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. Strong gusts will be the main risk with storms given the strength of deep-layer flow and a well mixed boundary layer. However, isolated hail also will be possible given 35+ kt effective shear and 500 mb temperatures near -18 C.
..Leitman.. 05/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Wednesday, May 6
Outlook Summary
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Wednesday afternoon and evening across portions of Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Damaging winds, large hail, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 040619
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS INTO PARTS OF ALABAMA
### SUMMARY
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Wednesday afternoon and evening across portions of Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Damaging winds, large hail, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible.
Texas to the Lower MS and TN Valleys
A midlevel shortwave trough will migrate from the central/southern Rockies to the southern Plains on Wednesday. Strong southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the southern Plains into much of the southern and eastern U.S. ahead of this feature. At the surface, a cold front will extend from the upper OH Valley southwestward to southern AR Wednesday morning, with the western extent of the front sloped across northeast to southwest TX. Ahead of the front, rich Gulf moisture will be in place with dewpoints generally in the mid 60s to near 70 across TX into the Lower MS Valley, decreasing with northeast extent. This will support a corridor of moderate destabilization ahead of the front from parts of TX into MS where MLCAPE around 1500-2500 J/kg is possible. Instability will be somewhat less with northeast extent across the TN Valley.
Storm mode is somewhat uncertain Wednesday afternoon. If discrete cells can develop, steep lapse rates, favorable thermodynamic, elongated/straight hodographs and 45+ kt effective shear magnitudes suggest supercells with an all-hazards risk will be possible. However, given deep layer flow parallel to the surface front and a southward progressing front, convection may tend to become linear quickly. This would increase damaging wind potential. Given uncertainty in storm mode, declined introducing a CIG 1 area for hail. In general, convection should develop during the afternoon and spread east/southeast with time through the overnight hours, with an accompany severe risk.
..Leitman.. 05/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Thursday, May 7
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, May 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, May 8 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, May 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, May 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, May 11 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040730 SPC AC 040730
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
Large-scale upper troughing is expected to envelop much of the eastern half of the CONUS for most of the forecast period. On Day 4/Thu, a surface cold front is expected to extend from the southern Mid-Atlantic to the central Gulf coast and southern TX. The front should largely move offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts and over northern FL by early Day 5/Fri. A moist airmass will be in place ahead of the front and some severe thunderstorm potential could develop. However, 15 percent or greater coverage is uncertain given deep-layer flow parallel to the boundary, cloud cover and areas of showers/thunderstorms early Thursday, and large-scale ascent lifting northeast away from better low-level moisture.
Severe potential appears low Days 5-6/Fri-Sat. Boundary layer moisture will be limited due to the prior cold frontal passage and surface high pressure in its wake. Some guidance suggests a weak shortwave trough will migrate across the southern Rockies and southern Plains on Friday, resulting in lee troughing and some Gulf moisture return across TX Friday night into Saturday. This could bring an increasing chance for thunderstorms across portions for TX and perhaps the Lower MS Valley on Saturday, though severe potential is uncertain given large model spread. By early next week, another period of moisture return ahead of a shortwave trough ejecting from the Rockies into the Plains/Midwest could bring another bout of severe potential ahead of a cold front from the southern Plains to the Southeast. However, timing and intensity of these features varies across control, AI, and ensemble guidance, resulting in low predictability.
..Leitman.. 05/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, May 8
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, May 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, May 8 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, May 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, May 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, May 11 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040730 SPC AC 040730
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
Large-scale upper troughing is expected to envelop much of the eastern half of the CONUS for most of the forecast period. On Day 4/Thu, a surface cold front is expected to extend from the southern Mid-Atlantic to the central Gulf coast and southern TX. The front should largely move offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts and over northern FL by early Day 5/Fri. A moist airmass will be in place ahead of the front and some severe thunderstorm potential could develop. However, 15 percent or greater coverage is uncertain given deep-layer flow parallel to the boundary, cloud cover and areas of showers/thunderstorms early Thursday, and large-scale ascent lifting northeast away from better low-level moisture.
Severe potential appears low Days 5-6/Fri-Sat. Boundary layer moisture will be limited due to the prior cold frontal passage and surface high pressure in its wake. Some guidance suggests a weak shortwave trough will migrate across the southern Rockies and southern Plains on Friday, resulting in lee troughing and some Gulf moisture return across TX Friday night into Saturday. This could bring an increasing chance for thunderstorms across portions for TX and perhaps the Lower MS Valley on Saturday, though severe potential is uncertain given large model spread. By early next week, another period of moisture return ahead of a shortwave trough ejecting from the Rockies into the Plains/Midwest could bring another bout of severe potential ahead of a cold front from the southern Plains to the Southeast. However, timing and intensity of these features varies across control, AI, and ensemble guidance, resulting in low predictability.
..Leitman.. 05/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, May 9
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, May 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, May 8 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, May 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, May 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, May 11 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040730 SPC AC 040730
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
Large-scale upper troughing is expected to envelop much of the eastern half of the CONUS for most of the forecast period. On Day 4/Thu, a surface cold front is expected to extend from the southern Mid-Atlantic to the central Gulf coast and southern TX. The front should largely move offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts and over northern FL by early Day 5/Fri. A moist airmass will be in place ahead of the front and some severe thunderstorm potential could develop. However, 15 percent or greater coverage is uncertain given deep-layer flow parallel to the boundary, cloud cover and areas of showers/thunderstorms early Thursday, and large-scale ascent lifting northeast away from better low-level moisture.
Severe potential appears low Days 5-6/Fri-Sat. Boundary layer moisture will be limited due to the prior cold frontal passage and surface high pressure in its wake. Some guidance suggests a weak shortwave trough will migrate across the southern Rockies and southern Plains on Friday, resulting in lee troughing and some Gulf moisture return across TX Friday night into Saturday. This could bring an increasing chance for thunderstorms across portions for TX and perhaps the Lower MS Valley on Saturday, though severe potential is uncertain given large model spread. By early next week, another period of moisture return ahead of a shortwave trough ejecting from the Rockies into the Plains/Midwest could bring another bout of severe potential ahead of a cold front from the southern Plains to the Southeast. However, timing and intensity of these features varies across control, AI, and ensemble guidance, resulting in low predictability.
..Leitman.. 05/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, May 10
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, May 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, May 8 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, May 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, May 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, May 11 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040730 SPC AC 040730
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
Large-scale upper troughing is expected to envelop much of the eastern half of the CONUS for most of the forecast period. On Day 4/Thu, a surface cold front is expected to extend from the southern Mid-Atlantic to the central Gulf coast and southern TX. The front should largely move offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts and over northern FL by early Day 5/Fri. A moist airmass will be in place ahead of the front and some severe thunderstorm potential could develop. However, 15 percent or greater coverage is uncertain given deep-layer flow parallel to the boundary, cloud cover and areas of showers/thunderstorms early Thursday, and large-scale ascent lifting northeast away from better low-level moisture.
Severe potential appears low Days 5-6/Fri-Sat. Boundary layer moisture will be limited due to the prior cold frontal passage and surface high pressure in its wake. Some guidance suggests a weak shortwave trough will migrate across the southern Rockies and southern Plains on Friday, resulting in lee troughing and some Gulf moisture return across TX Friday night into Saturday. This could bring an increasing chance for thunderstorms across portions for TX and perhaps the Lower MS Valley on Saturday, though severe potential is uncertain given large model spread. By early next week, another period of moisture return ahead of a shortwave trough ejecting from the Rockies into the Plains/Midwest could bring another bout of severe potential ahead of a cold front from the southern Plains to the Southeast. However, timing and intensity of these features varies across control, AI, and ensemble guidance, resulting in low predictability.
..Leitman.. 05/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, May 11
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, May 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, May 8 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, May 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, May 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, May 11 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040730 SPC AC 040730
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
Large-scale upper troughing is expected to envelop much of the eastern half of the CONUS for most of the forecast period. On Day 4/Thu, a surface cold front is expected to extend from the southern Mid-Atlantic to the central Gulf coast and southern TX. The front should largely move offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts and over northern FL by early Day 5/Fri. A moist airmass will be in place ahead of the front and some severe thunderstorm potential could develop. However, 15 percent or greater coverage is uncertain given deep-layer flow parallel to the boundary, cloud cover and areas of showers/thunderstorms early Thursday, and large-scale ascent lifting northeast away from better low-level moisture.
Severe potential appears low Days 5-6/Fri-Sat. Boundary layer moisture will be limited due to the prior cold frontal passage and surface high pressure in its wake. Some guidance suggests a weak shortwave trough will migrate across the southern Rockies and southern Plains on Friday, resulting in lee troughing and some Gulf moisture return across TX Friday night into Saturday. This could bring an increasing chance for thunderstorms across portions for TX and perhaps the Lower MS Valley on Saturday, though severe potential is uncertain given large model spread. By early next week, another period of moisture return ahead of a shortwave trough ejecting from the Rockies into the Plains/Midwest could bring another bout of severe potential ahead of a cold front from the southern Plains to the Southeast. However, timing and intensity of these features varies across control, AI, and ensemble guidance, resulting in low predictability.
..Leitman.. 05/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, May 4
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Tuesday, May 5
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Wednesday, May 6
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Thursday, May 7
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, May 8
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, May 9
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, May 10
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, May 11
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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