Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, October 2
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorm potential is low today and tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 020448
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CDT Thu Oct 01 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorm potential is low today and tonight.
Mid-Atlantic vicinity
An upper trough will develop eastward across the Northeast today, bringing some modestly enhanced midlevel southwesterly flow across the region ahead of a surface cold front. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing along the length of the front this morning from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-South. Low-level warm advection ahead of the eastward advancing font and band of convection will result in persistent cloudiness across the warm sector. Additionally, midlevel lapse rates are forecast to remain poor. As a result, instability is expected to remain modest (500-750 MLCAPE) despite 60s F dewpoints. Deep-layer flow will largely remain parallel to the surface boundary, and stronger flow will lift northeast with time. If pockets of stronger heating can occur, a few strong wind gusts are possible during the afternoon from northern VA into southern New England. However, overall severe potential appears limited.
..Leitman/Halbert.. 10/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Saturday, October 3
Outlook Summary
No severe thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. on Saturday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 020358
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 PM CDT Thu Oct 01 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
No severe thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. on Saturday.
Synopsis
On Saturday, a broad upper trough will develop into Ontario, with a leading speed max moving from the northern Plains across the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, an upper high will be centered over the Great Basin, with relatively high midlevel heights extending into the Southeast.
At the surface, a high pressure center will move from MI into the Northeast, with the surface ridge extending southwestward into the southern High Plains. Northeasterly surface winds will thus relegate the more robust moisture/dewpoints to the Gulf Coast states.
Isolated thunderstorms may develop during the day over the Upper Midwest in association with the shortwave trough, as temperatures aloft cool. Moisture and instability will be minimal, but weak elevated instability should support at least isolated lightning flashes.
Otherwise, scattered thunderstorms will affect much of the Gulf Coast and extending into the Carolinas as the air mass will become marginally unstable with heating. Weak shear will further preclude severe possibilities.
..Jewell.. 10/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Sunday, October 4
Outlook Summary
Severe storms are not forecast for Sunday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 020551
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Fri Oct 02 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe storms are not forecast for Sunday.
Synopsis
A large-scale upper trough will continue to deepen Sunday as the parent low moves out of Ontario and into western Quebec. A leading shortwave trough will quickly move from the Great Lakes into the Northeast, with an attendant cold front. However, little if any instability will be present to support thunderstorms.
Behind the leading wave, a secondary and stronger backside speed max will nose into the Upper Great Lakes late in the day, with another surface high building across much of the Midwest.
Scattered thunderstorms will remain possible from the TX Coast to FL, where low-level moisture and instability (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) will exist. Weak shear and warm temperatures aloft will not favor severe storms.
..Jewell.. 10/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Monday, October 5
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, October 4 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Monday, October 5 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, October 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, October 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, October 8 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010900 SPC AC 010900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Oct 01 2026
Valid 041200Z - 091200Z
DISCUSSION
Early next week, a large-scale upper-level trough will move from the Great Lakes region into the western Atlantic, as mid-level flow become west-northwesterly over much of the nation. At the surface, a large surface high will be dominant on Sunday and Monday from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast.
Further west into the Great Plains, a cold front is forecast to advance southeastward through the Dakotas on Tuesday. Ahead of the front, moisture advection is expected over the Great Plains. By Tuesday afternoon, an axis of instability should be in place from western Kansas into north-central Nebraska. Along and near the instability axis, an isolated severe threat will be possible from late afternoon into the evening. On Wednesday, the axis of instability is forecast to shift southeastward into the mid Missouri Valley. An isolated severe threat will again be possible near and ahead of the front from late afternoon into the evening.
By Thursday, model forecasts move an upper-level trough into the Great Lakes, as a subtle shortwave ridge moves through the central U.S. A relatively dry and cool airmass over much of the U.S. is expected to make thunderstorm development unlikely in most areas.
..Broyles.. 10/01/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, October 6
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, October 4 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Monday, October 5 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, October 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, October 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, October 8 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010900 SPC AC 010900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Oct 01 2026
Valid 041200Z - 091200Z
DISCUSSION
Early next week, a large-scale upper-level trough will move from the Great Lakes region into the western Atlantic, as mid-level flow become west-northwesterly over much of the nation. At the surface, a large surface high will be dominant on Sunday and Monday from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast.
Further west into the Great Plains, a cold front is forecast to advance southeastward through the Dakotas on Tuesday. Ahead of the front, moisture advection is expected over the Great Plains. By Tuesday afternoon, an axis of instability should be in place from western Kansas into north-central Nebraska. Along and near the instability axis, an isolated severe threat will be possible from late afternoon into the evening. On Wednesday, the axis of instability is forecast to shift southeastward into the mid Missouri Valley. An isolated severe threat will again be possible near and ahead of the front from late afternoon into the evening.
By Thursday, model forecasts move an upper-level trough into the Great Lakes, as a subtle shortwave ridge moves through the central U.S. A relatively dry and cool airmass over much of the U.S. is expected to make thunderstorm development unlikely in most areas.
..Broyles.. 10/01/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, October 7
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, October 4 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Monday, October 5 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, October 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, October 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, October 8 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010900 SPC AC 010900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Oct 01 2026
Valid 041200Z - 091200Z
DISCUSSION
Early next week, a large-scale upper-level trough will move from the Great Lakes region into the western Atlantic, as mid-level flow become west-northwesterly over much of the nation. At the surface, a large surface high will be dominant on Sunday and Monday from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast.
Further west into the Great Plains, a cold front is forecast to advance southeastward through the Dakotas on Tuesday. Ahead of the front, moisture advection is expected over the Great Plains. By Tuesday afternoon, an axis of instability should be in place from western Kansas into north-central Nebraska. Along and near the instability axis, an isolated severe threat will be possible from late afternoon into the evening. On Wednesday, the axis of instability is forecast to shift southeastward into the mid Missouri Valley. An isolated severe threat will again be possible near and ahead of the front from late afternoon into the evening.
By Thursday, model forecasts move an upper-level trough into the Great Lakes, as a subtle shortwave ridge moves through the central U.S. A relatively dry and cool airmass over much of the U.S. is expected to make thunderstorm development unlikely in most areas.
..Broyles.. 10/01/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, October 8
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, October 4 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Monday, October 5 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, October 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, October 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, October 8 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010900 SPC AC 010900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Oct 01 2026
Valid 041200Z - 091200Z
DISCUSSION
Early next week, a large-scale upper-level trough will move from the Great Lakes region into the western Atlantic, as mid-level flow become west-northwesterly over much of the nation. At the surface, a large surface high will be dominant on Sunday and Monday from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast.
Further west into the Great Plains, a cold front is forecast to advance southeastward through the Dakotas on Tuesday. Ahead of the front, moisture advection is expected over the Great Plains. By Tuesday afternoon, an axis of instability should be in place from western Kansas into north-central Nebraska. Along and near the instability axis, an isolated severe threat will be possible from late afternoon into the evening. On Wednesday, the axis of instability is forecast to shift southeastward into the mid Missouri Valley. An isolated severe threat will again be possible near and ahead of the front from late afternoon into the evening.
By Thursday, model forecasts move an upper-level trough into the Great Lakes, as a subtle shortwave ridge moves through the central U.S. A relatively dry and cool airmass over much of the U.S. is expected to make thunderstorm development unlikely in most areas.
..Broyles.. 10/01/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, October 2
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Saturday, October 3
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Sunday, October 4
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Monday, October 5
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, October 6
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, October 7
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, October 8
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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