Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, January 6
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 061617
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Tue Jan 06 2026
Valid 061630Z - 071200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.
Discussion
A progressive upper-flow pattern will continue over the CONUS with some amplification occurring through tonight within split flow over the West. Convective potential will be essentially nil over the CONUS.
A southern-stream shortwave trough off the coast of California will spread southeastward toward Baja, with any related thunderstorm-conducive environment expected to remain well offshore. Multiple shortwave troughs will cross or approach the Pacific Northwest tonight. Cooling mid-level temperatures may contribute to weak buoyancy and some potential for a few lightning flashes, but such potential is likely to remain below 10 percent.
..Guyer/Moore.. 01/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Wednesday, January 7
Outlook Summary
Strong to locally severe storms are possible Wednesday night into Thursday morning from west-central Texas into parts of Oklahoma.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 061716
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CST Tue Jan 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Strong to locally severe storms are possible Wednesday night into Thursday morning from west-central Texas into parts of Oklahoma.
Southern Plains
A low-latitude shortwave trough will advance east-northeastward across the Southwest through the day, reaching the southern High Plains late in the period. Related lee cyclogenesis will favor a strengthening nocturnal low-level jet and the northward return of weakly modified Gulf moisture into a cool/statically stable boundary layer over the southern Plains overnight. This, combined with modestly steepened midlevel lapse rates preceding the trough, will yield around 500 J/kg MUCAPE across the developing warm sector.
A band of warm-advection-driven showers and widely scattered thunderstorms will develop from west-central TX into OK during the 06-12Z time frame. Despite limited buoyancy, 50-60 kt of effective shear may promote a couple loosely organized cells and small line segments, though most of this activity is expected to remain slightly elevated. Marginally severe hail and locally damaging gusts will be possible with the more organized storms that evolve.
Pacific Northwest
In the left-exit region of a robust midlevel jet impinging on the Pacific Northwest Coast, a strongly forced, low-topped convective band is expected along a cold front overspreading the region. While locally strong gusts will be possible, the combination of weak buoyancy and lack of stronger low-level flow limits confidence in severe-gust potential.
..Weinman.. 01/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Thursday, January 8
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday from eastern Texas and Oklahoma into parts of the Ozarks and lower/mid Mississippi Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 060826
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CST Tue Jan 06 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OK/TX INTO THE OZARKS AND LOWER/MID MS VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday from eastern Texas and Oklahoma into parts of the Ozarks and lower/mid Mississippi Valley.
Eastern TX/OK into the Lower/Mid MS Valley and lower OH Valley
Guidance still varies somewhat regarding the timing and strength of the primary synoptic features across the CONUS on Thursday. In general, a mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to eject quickly northeastward from the southern Plains towards the Great Lakes on Thursday, as an upstream shortwave trough moves from the Southwest toward the southern Rockies. In conjunction with the lead shortwave trough, a surface low is forecast to move from the south-central Plains northeastward toward the lower Great Lakes by the end of the period.
Elevated convection will likely be ongoing Thursday morning across parts of OK/KS into the Ozarks, in association with the ejecting shortwave. Despite the meager instability, some organized convection may be ongoing Thursday morning, given the strength of the forcing and deep-layer flow/shear. Gusty and locally damaging winds could accompany any organized line segments as they approach parts of the OH Valley, though lingering low-level stability will tend to limit the magnitude of the threat, especially with northeast extent.
In the wake of the ejecting shortwave and early-day convection, a relatively large and strongly sheared warm sector will extend from the Gulf Coast into the lower/mid MS Valley and lower OH Valley. However, with generally poor lapse rates, weak to modest buoyancy, and a tendency for the strongest ascent to lift away from the warm sector with time, organized-severe potential during the afternoon and evening is uncertain.
There is a modest signal in ECMWF/GFS and related ensemble guidance for storm development Thursday evening/night from near the ArkLaTex into the lower OH Valley, with the deterministic ECMWF also depicting robust elevated convection into parts of central TX late in the period. If storms can mature within the favorably sheared environment, then some threat for locally damaging wind, isolated hail, and/or a tornado could evolve later in the period. A rather conditional Marginal Risk has been included where ensemble and calibrated guidance depicts at least a low-probability severe threat through the period.
..Dean.. 01/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Friday, January 9
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, January 9 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Saturday, January 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, January 11 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, January 12 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, January 13 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 061000 SPC AC 061000
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Tue Jan 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Friday: Lower MS Valley vicinity
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough initially over the southern Rockies is forecast to take on a positive tilt as it moves eastward on Friday, as a northern-stream shortwave trough digs from the Canadian Prairies toward the Upper Great Lakes. Some guidance has trended weaker and farther south with a surface low developing near the lower MS Valley by Friday evening, though a relatively large warm sector is still expected to be in place through most of the period. Scattered to widespread storm development is expected from parts of east TX into the lower MS Valley, with sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection and some attendant severe threat. Some adjustments to the 15% area have been made, based on guidance trends regarding surface low placement and the northward extent of the favorable warm sector.
D5/Saturday: Parts of the East
Uncertainty regarding the synoptic pattern increases by D5/Saturday, with varying solutions regarding the extent of mid/upper-level trough amplification across the eastern CONUS, and the strength of the related surface low. Guidance generally agrees that buoyancy will be limited across much of the warm sector on Saturday. However, any organized convection that develops Friday night may persist into Saturday morning across parts of the Southeast, with some potential for an isolated severe threat. Farther north, the strongest solutions (such as the 00Z deterministic ECMWF) depict notable intensification of low/midlevel flow from the Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic, which could result in some damaging-wind potential with any low-topped convection along or ahead of an advancing cold front.
..Dean.. 01/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, January 10
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, January 9 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Saturday, January 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, January 11 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, January 12 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, January 13 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 061000 SPC AC 061000
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Tue Jan 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Friday: Lower MS Valley vicinity
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough initially over the southern Rockies is forecast to take on a positive tilt as it moves eastward on Friday, as a northern-stream shortwave trough digs from the Canadian Prairies toward the Upper Great Lakes. Some guidance has trended weaker and farther south with a surface low developing near the lower MS Valley by Friday evening, though a relatively large warm sector is still expected to be in place through most of the period. Scattered to widespread storm development is expected from parts of east TX into the lower MS Valley, with sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection and some attendant severe threat. Some adjustments to the 15% area have been made, based on guidance trends regarding surface low placement and the northward extent of the favorable warm sector.
D5/Saturday: Parts of the East
Uncertainty regarding the synoptic pattern increases by D5/Saturday, with varying solutions regarding the extent of mid/upper-level trough amplification across the eastern CONUS, and the strength of the related surface low. Guidance generally agrees that buoyancy will be limited across much of the warm sector on Saturday. However, any organized convection that develops Friday night may persist into Saturday morning across parts of the Southeast, with some potential for an isolated severe threat. Farther north, the strongest solutions (such as the 00Z deterministic ECMWF) depict notable intensification of low/midlevel flow from the Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic, which could result in some damaging-wind potential with any low-topped convection along or ahead of an advancing cold front.
..Dean.. 01/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, January 11
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, January 9 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Saturday, January 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, January 11 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, January 12 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, January 13 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 061000 SPC AC 061000
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Tue Jan 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Friday: Lower MS Valley vicinity
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough initially over the southern Rockies is forecast to take on a positive tilt as it moves eastward on Friday, as a northern-stream shortwave trough digs from the Canadian Prairies toward the Upper Great Lakes. Some guidance has trended weaker and farther south with a surface low developing near the lower MS Valley by Friday evening, though a relatively large warm sector is still expected to be in place through most of the period. Scattered to widespread storm development is expected from parts of east TX into the lower MS Valley, with sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection and some attendant severe threat. Some adjustments to the 15% area have been made, based on guidance trends regarding surface low placement and the northward extent of the favorable warm sector.
D5/Saturday: Parts of the East
Uncertainty regarding the synoptic pattern increases by D5/Saturday, with varying solutions regarding the extent of mid/upper-level trough amplification across the eastern CONUS, and the strength of the related surface low. Guidance generally agrees that buoyancy will be limited across much of the warm sector on Saturday. However, any organized convection that develops Friday night may persist into Saturday morning across parts of the Southeast, with some potential for an isolated severe threat. Farther north, the strongest solutions (such as the 00Z deterministic ECMWF) depict notable intensification of low/midlevel flow from the Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic, which could result in some damaging-wind potential with any low-topped convection along or ahead of an advancing cold front.
..Dean.. 01/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, January 12
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, January 9 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Saturday, January 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, January 11 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, January 12 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, January 13 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 061000 SPC AC 061000
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Tue Jan 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Friday: Lower MS Valley vicinity
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough initially over the southern Rockies is forecast to take on a positive tilt as it moves eastward on Friday, as a northern-stream shortwave trough digs from the Canadian Prairies toward the Upper Great Lakes. Some guidance has trended weaker and farther south with a surface low developing near the lower MS Valley by Friday evening, though a relatively large warm sector is still expected to be in place through most of the period. Scattered to widespread storm development is expected from parts of east TX into the lower MS Valley, with sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection and some attendant severe threat. Some adjustments to the 15% area have been made, based on guidance trends regarding surface low placement and the northward extent of the favorable warm sector.
D5/Saturday: Parts of the East
Uncertainty regarding the synoptic pattern increases by D5/Saturday, with varying solutions regarding the extent of mid/upper-level trough amplification across the eastern CONUS, and the strength of the related surface low. Guidance generally agrees that buoyancy will be limited across much of the warm sector on Saturday. However, any organized convection that develops Friday night may persist into Saturday morning across parts of the Southeast, with some potential for an isolated severe threat. Farther north, the strongest solutions (such as the 00Z deterministic ECMWF) depict notable intensification of low/midlevel flow from the Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic, which could result in some damaging-wind potential with any low-topped convection along or ahead of an advancing cold front.
..Dean.. 01/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, January 13
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, January 9 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Saturday, January 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, January 11 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, January 12 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, January 13 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 061000 SPC AC 061000
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Tue Jan 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Friday: Lower MS Valley vicinity
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough initially over the southern Rockies is forecast to take on a positive tilt as it moves eastward on Friday, as a northern-stream shortwave trough digs from the Canadian Prairies toward the Upper Great Lakes. Some guidance has trended weaker and farther south with a surface low developing near the lower MS Valley by Friday evening, though a relatively large warm sector is still expected to be in place through most of the period. Scattered to widespread storm development is expected from parts of east TX into the lower MS Valley, with sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection and some attendant severe threat. Some adjustments to the 15% area have been made, based on guidance trends regarding surface low placement and the northward extent of the favorable warm sector.
D5/Saturday: Parts of the East
Uncertainty regarding the synoptic pattern increases by D5/Saturday, with varying solutions regarding the extent of mid/upper-level trough amplification across the eastern CONUS, and the strength of the related surface low. Guidance generally agrees that buoyancy will be limited across much of the warm sector on Saturday. However, any organized convection that develops Friday night may persist into Saturday morning across parts of the Southeast, with some potential for an isolated severe threat. Farther north, the strongest solutions (such as the 00Z deterministic ECMWF) depict notable intensification of low/midlevel flow from the Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic, which could result in some damaging-wind potential with any low-topped convection along or ahead of an advancing cold front.
..Dean.. 01/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, January 6
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Wednesday, January 7
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Thursday, January 8
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Friday, January 9
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Saturday, January 10
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, January 11
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, January 12
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, January 13
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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