Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Monday, July 20

Tuesday, July 21

Wednesday, July 22

Thursday, July 23

Friday, July 24

Saturday, July 25

Sunday, July 26

Monday, July 27

Outlook for Monday, July 20

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes vicinity, especially late this afternoon and tonight. Swaths of damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes will all be possible. Isolated damaging wind gusts may also occur over parts of the Carolinas and southern Virginia.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 5%

wind 30%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 200602

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES

### THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AND FAR SOUTHERN VIRGINIA

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes vicinity, especially late this afternoon and tonight. Swaths of damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes will all be possible. Isolated damaging wind gusts may also occur over parts of the Carolinas and southern Virginia.

Upper Midwest/Great Lakes

A potentially active severe-weather scenario is expected later today into tonight, although some key uncertainties persist related to the potential impacts of early day convection and associated cloud debris.

A substantial shortwave trough over southern Manitoba will continue to gradually amplify and spread southeastward to the Lake Superior vicinity through tonight, with a strengthening belt of mid/high-level west-northwesterly flow overspreading the Upper Midwest toward the Lake Michigan vicinity, highlighted by 50-70 kt mid-level winds and 100 kt winds in the upper levels across Minnesota/Wisconsin. An east/southeastward-advecting plume of steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread a warm sector with upper 60s to lower/middle 70s F dewpoints.

Initially, a few early day storms could produce hail and perhaps some strong wind gusts across east/southeast Minnesota into western Wisconsin and eastern Iowa, amidst ample elevated instability and effective shear over 50 kt. This activity may continue to spread southeastward this morning but tend to wane during the day, leading to a potential regional break prior to additional/more vigorous development by late afternoon along the cold front as it progresses east-southeastward toward Wisconsin/Upper Michigan and northern/eastern Iowa.

The initial storms should primarily be supercells given such strong deep-layer shear. A corridor of large hail and tornado risk is evident east of the instability axis from Iowa across Wisconsin into Upper MI. Even while near-surface winds may tend to veer with time, effective SRH may exceed 300 m2/s2, especially across Wisconsin toward Upper Michigan as supported by the seasonally very-strong 2-3 km AGL winds (700 mb winds in excess of 50 kt). The degree of SRH could support a couple strong tornadoes (EF2+), and somewhat higher tornado probabilities could be warranted in subsequent outlooks as early day convection details are resolved. While supercells will persist for a time, several storm clusters will evolve this evening, with a continued damaging wind and some tornado risk persisting southeastward this evening prior to storm intensity eventually waning overnight.

Carolinas and southern Virginia

Convection and related cloud debris may persist early today, but a moist air mass will again diurnally destabilize this afternoon along and south of a roughly west/east-oriented front. Daytime heating, 70s F dewpoints and surface convergence will aid storm formation and intensification this afternoon. MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg, PWAT over 2.00", and mid-level westerly flow aloft of 15-20 kt will lead to multicellular storm mode with isolated damaging wind gusts during the afternoon until around sunset.

Florida

Tropical Depression Two may gradually strengthen across the northeast Gulf of America today and tonight. Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest development/forecast details. While various global models support the notion of a strengthening of southerly winds in the lowest 2-3km AGL, especially across the western Florida Peninsula, it currently appears that supercell-related tornado potential should remain low, largely attributable to the overall weakness of the Depression and weak wind aloft.

..Guyer/Weinman.. 07/20/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, July 21

Outlook Summary

Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across a broad region from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Tuesday. All severe hazards are possible, but swaths of damaging wind gusts should be the primary severe risk Tuesday afternoon into the nighttime hours.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 5%

wind 45%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 200539

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN INDIANA…NORTHEAST KENTUCKY…SOUTHERN/EASTERN OHIO…WEST VIRGINIA…NORTHERN VIRGINIA…MARYLAND…AND PENNSYLVANIA

### SUMMARY

Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across a broad region from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Tuesday. All severe hazards are possible, but swaths of damaging wind gusts should be the primary severe risk Tuesday afternoon into the nighttime hours.

Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast

An upper trough will be oriented over the region on Tuesday, with several shortwave impulses migrating through the larger-scale system. At the surface, low pressure will move across southern Ontario into Quebec. A trailing cold front will move across much of the Midwest through the period, becoming positioned from western PA to TN and northern AR/OK by Wednesday morning. Ahead of the main surface front, surface prefrontal troughing is expected to develop across western/central NY into the Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Rich boundary-layer moisture will overspread much of the area, with dewpoints from the mid-60s to low 70s F commonplace. This will aid in development of moderate to strong instability.

Deep-layer flow will be strong for this time of year, with 40-60 kt flow at 500 mb, and 30-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer. Forecast soundings indicate supercell wind profiles with favorably curved low-level hodographs becoming elongated above 2-3 km across much of the region. Convective evolution remains a bit uncertain, but a mix of supercells and one or more bowing linear segments are expected across the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Significant severe (2+ inch hail, 65+ kt winds, etc) potential is unclear, and will largely depend on storm mode and mesoscale evolution of convection. Temperatures aloft are relatively warm, around -5 to -7 C at 500 mb, and this may inhibit sig hail potential. Meanwhile, 65+ kt gusts could occur if a well-organized bowing structure and stronger cold pool can develop. Given warm/moist low-levels and limited low-level lapse rates, confidence in this scenario is low. As a result, the CIG 1 area from the prior Day 3 outlook has been removed for now. Where supercells can be maintained, a risk for a few tornadoes also is possible.

While details regarding storm mode and evolution remain somewhat uncertain, the overall environment will support a severe risk across a broad region on Tuesday/Tuesday evening. Swaths of damaging winds still appear to be the greatest risk, though all hazards are possible.

..Leitman.. 07/20/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, July 22

Outlook Summary

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts across parts of southeast Virginia and North Carolina.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 200721

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA

### SUMMARY

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts across parts of southeast Virginia and North Carolina.

Mid-Atlantic to New England

Several shortwave impulses will migrate through persistent upper troughing over the East on Wednesday. At the surface, low pressure will lift northeast across Quebec. A trailing cold front will move east/southeast across portions of the region, become positioned from the Mid-Atlantic coast into central NC by Thursday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will maintain a seasonally moist airmass. Moderate destabilization is expected across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into NC where boundary-layer moisture is greater and stronger heating may occur. Weak instability will be located over New England. Around 30-40 kt southwesterly flow from 850-500 mb will provide sufficient vertical shear for some organized cells/clusters. Isolated strong to severe storms producing damaging winds are expected across portions of the Mid-Atlantic into New England, with the greatest risk across parts of VA/NC and vicinity.

..Leitman.. 07/20/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Thursday, July 23

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, July 23	predictability too low
Day 5	Friday, July 24	predictability too low
Day 6	Saturday, July 25	predictability too low
Day 7	Sunday, July 26	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, July 27	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200802 SPC AC 200802

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

DISCUSSION

Upper troughing will persist across the eastern U.S. through early next week. Meanwhile, a strong, amplified upper ridge will envelop the western half of the CONUS. This should largely limit greater severe potential beneath the upper ridge, though some daily mesoscale-driven strong thunderstorm risk could develop over parts of the Plains as moist southerly low-level flow maintains moisture across the central portions of the country. While any stronger flow aloft will mostly remain north of the international border, some model guidance trends over the last 24 hours indicate strengthening northwesterly flow aloft is possible as a shortwave impulse or two migrates atop the upper ridge and over parts of the northern Plains and Great Lakes. This could support an increasing severe risk across these areas over the weekend, though confidence is too low for any 15 percent probability areas at this time.

..Leitman.. 07/20/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Friday, July 24

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, July 23	predictability too low
Day 5	Friday, July 24	predictability too low
Day 6	Saturday, July 25	predictability too low
Day 7	Sunday, July 26	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, July 27	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200802 SPC AC 200802

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

DISCUSSION

Upper troughing will persist across the eastern U.S. through early next week. Meanwhile, a strong, amplified upper ridge will envelop the western half of the CONUS. This should largely limit greater severe potential beneath the upper ridge, though some daily mesoscale-driven strong thunderstorm risk could develop over parts of the Plains as moist southerly low-level flow maintains moisture across the central portions of the country. While any stronger flow aloft will mostly remain north of the international border, some model guidance trends over the last 24 hours indicate strengthening northwesterly flow aloft is possible as a shortwave impulse or two migrates atop the upper ridge and over parts of the northern Plains and Great Lakes. This could support an increasing severe risk across these areas over the weekend, though confidence is too low for any 15 percent probability areas at this time.

..Leitman.. 07/20/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Saturday, July 25

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, July 23	predictability too low
Day 5	Friday, July 24	predictability too low
Day 6	Saturday, July 25	predictability too low
Day 7	Sunday, July 26	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, July 27	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200802 SPC AC 200802

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

DISCUSSION

Upper troughing will persist across the eastern U.S. through early next week. Meanwhile, a strong, amplified upper ridge will envelop the western half of the CONUS. This should largely limit greater severe potential beneath the upper ridge, though some daily mesoscale-driven strong thunderstorm risk could develop over parts of the Plains as moist southerly low-level flow maintains moisture across the central portions of the country. While any stronger flow aloft will mostly remain north of the international border, some model guidance trends over the last 24 hours indicate strengthening northwesterly flow aloft is possible as a shortwave impulse or two migrates atop the upper ridge and over parts of the northern Plains and Great Lakes. This could support an increasing severe risk across these areas over the weekend, though confidence is too low for any 15 percent probability areas at this time.

..Leitman.. 07/20/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Sunday, July 26

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, July 23	predictability too low
Day 5	Friday, July 24	predictability too low
Day 6	Saturday, July 25	predictability too low
Day 7	Sunday, July 26	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, July 27	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200802 SPC AC 200802

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

DISCUSSION

Upper troughing will persist across the eastern U.S. through early next week. Meanwhile, a strong, amplified upper ridge will envelop the western half of the CONUS. This should largely limit greater severe potential beneath the upper ridge, though some daily mesoscale-driven strong thunderstorm risk could develop over parts of the Plains as moist southerly low-level flow maintains moisture across the central portions of the country. While any stronger flow aloft will mostly remain north of the international border, some model guidance trends over the last 24 hours indicate strengthening northwesterly flow aloft is possible as a shortwave impulse or two migrates atop the upper ridge and over parts of the northern Plains and Great Lakes. This could support an increasing severe risk across these areas over the weekend, though confidence is too low for any 15 percent probability areas at this time.

..Leitman.. 07/20/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Monday, July 27

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, July 23	predictability too low
Day 5	Friday, July 24	predictability too low
Day 6	Saturday, July 25	predictability too low
Day 7	Sunday, July 26	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, July 27	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200802 SPC AC 200802

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

DISCUSSION

Upper troughing will persist across the eastern U.S. through early next week. Meanwhile, a strong, amplified upper ridge will envelop the western half of the CONUS. This should largely limit greater severe potential beneath the upper ridge, though some daily mesoscale-driven strong thunderstorm risk could develop over parts of the Plains as moist southerly low-level flow maintains moisture across the central portions of the country. While any stronger flow aloft will mostly remain north of the international border, some model guidance trends over the last 24 hours indicate strengthening northwesterly flow aloft is possible as a shortwave impulse or two migrates atop the upper ridge and over parts of the northern Plains and Great Lakes. This could support an increasing severe risk across these areas over the weekend, though confidence is too low for any 15 percent probability areas at this time.

..Leitman.. 07/20/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

National Risk Overview

Monday, July 20: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 30%
Tuesday, July 21: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 45%
Wednesday, July 22: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Thursday, July 23: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, July 24: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, July 25: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, July 26: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, July 27: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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