Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, June 23
Outlook Summary
Severe storms capable of 2+ inch diameter hail, 75+ mph gusts, and isolated tornadoes are expected from the central High Plains into parts of the central and southern Plains today into tonight. Damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado may occur with storms along the Mid-Atlantic. Scattered storms capable of isolated severe wind/hail are possible across the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 30%
hail 30%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 230856
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
### THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC
CORRECTED FOR TEXT
SUMMARY
Severe storms capable of 2+ inch diameter hail, 75+ mph gusts, and isolated tornadoes are expected from the central High Plains into parts of the central and southern Plains today into tonight. Damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado may occur with storms along the Mid-Atlantic. Scattered storms capable of isolated severe wind/hail are possible across the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley.
Synopsis
A mid-level trough will impinge on the Eastern Seaboard while upper ridging builds over the western into central CONUS today. Multiple mid-level impulses are poised to traverse the upper ridge, supporting at least scattered thunderstorm development in multiple rounds across the Plains. These rounds of storms will encompass the entire period (12Z Tuesday morning through 12Z Wednesday morning), resulting in a complex forecast. Nonetheless, stronger flow aloft associated with the ridge will advect an EML atop seasonal low-level moisture, resulting in enough buoyancy and vertical wind shear to support an appreciable severe threat, especially over the central High Plains. Otherwise, a cold front approaching the East Coast will support a line of severe thunderstorms over the Mid-Atlantic.
Portions of the central High Plains
By afternoon peak heating, upslope flow beneath a glancing mid-level impulse will support the initiation of at least isolated storms. These storms will develop atop a relatively mixed boundary layer and surface dewpoints approaching 60 F, overspread by 9 C/km mid-level lapse rates, resulting in moderate to locally strong buoyancy (i.e. 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE). Strong vertical wind shear will also be in place, with 50 kts of effective bulk shear driven by elongated hodographs with modest low-level curvature. Supercells will be the primary storm mode, accompanied by a threat for all hazards. Given the potential for a mixed boundary layer, intense gusts well exceeding 75 mph will be possible, in addition to hailstones potentially reaching the 2-3.5 inch range. Any supercells that can ingest terrain-induced low-level vertical vorticity may be accompanied by a landspout/hybrid tornado threat.
Portions of the central and southern Plains
A surface boundary currently resides along the Red River, with thunderstorms developing all along this boundary from the TX Panhandle to central MS. At the start of the forecast period (12Z Tuesday), an established low-level jet will be in the process of transporting a moist low-level airmass northward, perhaps encouraging northward movement of the surface boundary as well. However, an MCS may develop somewhere along the KS/OK border at the start of the period along an elevated boundary, which will drift southeastward through the late morning/early afternoon hours. The evolution of this MCS and interacting convection with the aforementioned surface boundary introduces considerable uncertainty to the forecast, especially for late afternoon/early evening storms.
If the MCS and merging surface boundary convection linger over the southern Plains through the day, later severe potential may be reduced. However, if convection can exit the Plains or somehow dissipate by late morning/early afternoon, enough destabilization may take place for an evening severe threat. Should the later scenario unfold, convective initiation over the southern High Plains may result in severe hail/wind producing supercells merging into a cold-pool driven MCS, which in turn may produce a severe wind swath with 75+ mph gusts. Given so much uncertainty with the details of this forecast, a broad area of 15 percent/CIG1 probabilities were introduced for portions of the central and southern Plains. Considerable adjustments to this forecast (upgrades or probabilities removal) may be needed depending on convective and subsequent modified environmental evolution through the first half of the period.
Parts of the Northern Plains
Cold temperatures aloft and 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates will accompany the passage of an upper low over parts of the northern Plains into the Upper MS Valley. By afternoon peak heating, thunderstorms initiating along the periphery of the upper low, amid a belt of stronger flow aloft (driving elongated hodographs) will support multicells and perhaps transient supercells capable of isolated severe wind and hail.
Mid-Atlantic
By late morning into early afternoon, surface temperatures warming into the 80s F amid 70+ F dewpoints will yield over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, but distributed through tall/thin profiles given poor (5-6 C/km) mid-level lapse rates. Nearly unidirectional tropospheric wind profiles will yield nearly 40 kts of effective (speed) shear, which will favor multicellular development and ultimately a squall line along/ahead of the cold front. Damaging gusts are expected to be the main threat, though a brief tornado may also occur wherever locally backed near-surface winds may be realized.
..Squitieri/Halbert.. 06/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Wednesday, June 24
Outlook Summary
Widely scattered severe storms are possible across the central High Plains on Wednesday with a threat for large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. More isolated severe storms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest, Ozarks to Mississippi, and across northern Utah.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 230609
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
### SUMMARY
Widely scattered severe storms are possible across the central High Plains on Wednesday with a threat for large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. More isolated severe storms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest, Ozarks to Mississippi, and across northern Utah.
Synopsis
Moderate northwesterly mid-level flow will be present from the northern Rockies to the Midwest between a ridge across the Southwest and a trough moving across southern Canada into the Upper Midwest. A weak mid-level shortwave trough will likely be in the Arkansas region at the beginning of the period and weaken with a secondary mid-level shortwave trough moving across the central Rockies and deamplifying the ridge. At the surface, a weak surface low will move from northern Minnesota into Wisconsin. A secondary lee cyclone will develop across eastern Colorado in response to the approaching mid-level shortwave trough and strengthening mid-level flow.
Central/southern High Plains
Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop within upslope flow across eastern Colorado and southeast Wyoming on Wednesday afternoon. As 40 to 50 knots of mid-level flow advects over the region, a favorable supercell environment will be in place. Supercells are likely to develop by mid afternoon with an initial threat of large to very large hail and severe winds. The more organized supercell threat is forecast from east-central Colorado northward where the 15% hail probabilities are confined. 15% wind probabilities continue farther south as forecast soundings suggest severe winds (perhaps 75+ mph) are likely, even if storms are less organized.
KS/OK into the Ozarks
Day 1 convection will have a considerable impact on the coverage and severity of severe storms on Wednesday. Some guidance shows morning storms along a frontal zone in Oklahoma and persisting into the afternoon which will stabilize most of the region into the afternoon and evening. However, if these storms do not form, a very favorable airmass will remain in place and a MCS could develop across the High Plains and move into this region Tuesday night. This could bring some severe weather threat and it would have implications for where destabilization would be on Day 2/Wednesday. Therefore, a broad 5% driven by severe winds seems appropriate at this time and additional refinement can be made once the impact of prior day convection becomes more clear.
Western Great Lakes
Lingering clouds associated with early-day storms may limit air mass destabilization into afternoon. However, where cloud breaks can occur, the combination of cooling temperatures aloft and modest boundary-layer moisture content will support moderate afternoon instability. Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon in the vicinity of the surface low and frontal boundary, and within the belt of stronger mid-level flow, suggesting some potential for large hail with the strongest updrafts.
Eastern Arkansas into Mississippi
There is considerable uncertainty regarding the coverage of storms across Arkansas at 12Z Wednesday, but given forcing from a mid-level trough and moderate to strong instability across the region, either re-intensification of morning convection or additional afternoon convection is possible within this zone. Damaging winds will be the primary threat.
Northern Utah
A weak mid-level shortwave trough will move across northern Utah during the day on Monday with weak to moderate instability. Forecast soundings show a deeply-mixed sub-cloud layer which may result in severe winds. Some consideration was given to a CIG1 area given the potential for organized storms in the steep lapse rate environment, but did not have the confidence for 75+ mph wind gusts to add it at this time.
..Bentley.. 06/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Thursday, June 25
Outlook Summary
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across portions of the central/northern High Plains with a threat for large to very large hail and severe wind, and across portions of northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas into the Ozarks on Thursday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 230730
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA/SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO THE OZARKS.
### SUMMARY
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across portions of the central/northern High Plains with a threat for large to very large hail and severe wind, and across portions of northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas into the Ozarks on Thursday.
Synopsis
A mostly zonal pattern is forecast across the CONUS on Thursday with multiple embedded shortwave troughs. The two features of interest will move from the northern Great Basin to Wyoming with the second shortwave trough moving from the Four Corners into the central/southern Plains. At the surface, a lee cyclone is expected to develop in the Texas Panhandle vicinity with a frontal zone extending eastward toward the Ozarks.
Central/Northern High Plains
Moderate instability will develop across eastern Wyoming and northeast Colorado amid persistent upslope flow. As mid-level flow strengthens to 35 to 40 knots and mid-level forcing overspreads the Plains, expect supercells to develop across eastern Wyoming and northeast Colorado. These storms will have a threat for large to very large hail and severe wind gusts.
Northern Oklahoma/southern Kansas into the Ozarks
A mid-level shortwave trough should result in sufficient upper-level support for storm development along the frontal zone. Moderate to strong instability is expected to overlap the same region with 40 to 50 knots of mid-level flow and a moderate low-level jet. Some storm activity may be ongoing with this shortwave trough on Thursday morning. Therefore, the greatest storm threat should be on the south/southwest extent of this morning activity. The environment will support supercells capable of large hail, severe winds, and perhaps even some tornadoes. The extent of the tornado threat will depend on how strong the surface reflection associated with this feature may be. A solution such as the NAM has a much stronger surface low and low-level jet response, which would enhance the tornado threat along this frontal zone.
..Bentley.. 06/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Friday, June 26
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, June 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, June 27 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Sunday, June 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, June 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, June 30 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230847 SPC AC 230847
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
D5/Saturday - Northern Plains
A strong mid-level trough will move into the Northwest on Saturday with strong mid-level flow extending around the base of this trough. The leading edge of this stronger mid-level flow will emerge over the northern Plains on Saturday with a lee cyclone forecast near the MT/SD/WY border. Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop as mid to upper 60s dewpoints advect northward. Strong to severe storms appear likely during the afternoon and evening as the lead shortwave trough emerges and the low-level jet strengthens. There is still some uncertainty with the location/timing of the lead shortwave trough which may require some shifting of the probabilities at a later time. However, confidence in severe weather in the general region is high enough to add 15 percent probabilities.
D6/Sunday - Northern Plains Vicinity
On Sunday, as the primary jet streak emerges across the northern Plains, severe weather will also be possible across North Dakota and vicinity. However, the evolution of the upper trough/jet streak is a bit more uncertain and therefore, the area with this greater concern is less clear. Eventual severe weather probabilities seem likely, but will not be added until guidance comes into better agreement regarding the upper-level pattern.
D7/Monday - Upper Midwest
As the mid-level trough shifts east on Monday, the stronger mid-level flow may overspread an unstable warm sector across parts of the Upper Midwest. Considerable uncertainty regarding the upper trough evolution and position of the surface features preclude inclusion of probabilities at this time.
..Bentley.. 06/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, June 27
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, June 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, June 27 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Sunday, June 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, June 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, June 30 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230847 SPC AC 230847
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
D5/Saturday - Northern Plains
A strong mid-level trough will move into the Northwest on Saturday with strong mid-level flow extending around the base of this trough. The leading edge of this stronger mid-level flow will emerge over the northern Plains on Saturday with a lee cyclone forecast near the MT/SD/WY border. Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop as mid to upper 60s dewpoints advect northward. Strong to severe storms appear likely during the afternoon and evening as the lead shortwave trough emerges and the low-level jet strengthens. There is still some uncertainty with the location/timing of the lead shortwave trough which may require some shifting of the probabilities at a later time. However, confidence in severe weather in the general region is high enough to add 15 percent probabilities.
D6/Sunday - Northern Plains Vicinity
On Sunday, as the primary jet streak emerges across the northern Plains, severe weather will also be possible across North Dakota and vicinity. However, the evolution of the upper trough/jet streak is a bit more uncertain and therefore, the area with this greater concern is less clear. Eventual severe weather probabilities seem likely, but will not be added until guidance comes into better agreement regarding the upper-level pattern.
D7/Monday - Upper Midwest
As the mid-level trough shifts east on Monday, the stronger mid-level flow may overspread an unstable warm sector across parts of the Upper Midwest. Considerable uncertainty regarding the upper trough evolution and position of the surface features preclude inclusion of probabilities at this time.
..Bentley.. 06/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, June 28
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, June 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, June 27 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Sunday, June 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, June 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, June 30 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230847 SPC AC 230847
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
D5/Saturday - Northern Plains
A strong mid-level trough will move into the Northwest on Saturday with strong mid-level flow extending around the base of this trough. The leading edge of this stronger mid-level flow will emerge over the northern Plains on Saturday with a lee cyclone forecast near the MT/SD/WY border. Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop as mid to upper 60s dewpoints advect northward. Strong to severe storms appear likely during the afternoon and evening as the lead shortwave trough emerges and the low-level jet strengthens. There is still some uncertainty with the location/timing of the lead shortwave trough which may require some shifting of the probabilities at a later time. However, confidence in severe weather in the general region is high enough to add 15 percent probabilities.
D6/Sunday - Northern Plains Vicinity
On Sunday, as the primary jet streak emerges across the northern Plains, severe weather will also be possible across North Dakota and vicinity. However, the evolution of the upper trough/jet streak is a bit more uncertain and therefore, the area with this greater concern is less clear. Eventual severe weather probabilities seem likely, but will not be added until guidance comes into better agreement regarding the upper-level pattern.
D7/Monday - Upper Midwest
As the mid-level trough shifts east on Monday, the stronger mid-level flow may overspread an unstable warm sector across parts of the Upper Midwest. Considerable uncertainty regarding the upper trough evolution and position of the surface features preclude inclusion of probabilities at this time.
..Bentley.. 06/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, June 29
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, June 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, June 27 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Sunday, June 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, June 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, June 30 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230847 SPC AC 230847
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
D5/Saturday - Northern Plains
A strong mid-level trough will move into the Northwest on Saturday with strong mid-level flow extending around the base of this trough. The leading edge of this stronger mid-level flow will emerge over the northern Plains on Saturday with a lee cyclone forecast near the MT/SD/WY border. Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop as mid to upper 60s dewpoints advect northward. Strong to severe storms appear likely during the afternoon and evening as the lead shortwave trough emerges and the low-level jet strengthens. There is still some uncertainty with the location/timing of the lead shortwave trough which may require some shifting of the probabilities at a later time. However, confidence in severe weather in the general region is high enough to add 15 percent probabilities.
D6/Sunday - Northern Plains Vicinity
On Sunday, as the primary jet streak emerges across the northern Plains, severe weather will also be possible across North Dakota and vicinity. However, the evolution of the upper trough/jet streak is a bit more uncertain and therefore, the area with this greater concern is less clear. Eventual severe weather probabilities seem likely, but will not be added until guidance comes into better agreement regarding the upper-level pattern.
D7/Monday - Upper Midwest
As the mid-level trough shifts east on Monday, the stronger mid-level flow may overspread an unstable warm sector across parts of the Upper Midwest. Considerable uncertainty regarding the upper trough evolution and position of the surface features preclude inclusion of probabilities at this time.
..Bentley.. 06/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, June 30
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, June 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, June 27 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Sunday, June 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, June 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, June 30 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230847 SPC AC 230847
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
D5/Saturday - Northern Plains
A strong mid-level trough will move into the Northwest on Saturday with strong mid-level flow extending around the base of this trough. The leading edge of this stronger mid-level flow will emerge over the northern Plains on Saturday with a lee cyclone forecast near the MT/SD/WY border. Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop as mid to upper 60s dewpoints advect northward. Strong to severe storms appear likely during the afternoon and evening as the lead shortwave trough emerges and the low-level jet strengthens. There is still some uncertainty with the location/timing of the lead shortwave trough which may require some shifting of the probabilities at a later time. However, confidence in severe weather in the general region is high enough to add 15 percent probabilities.
D6/Sunday - Northern Plains Vicinity
On Sunday, as the primary jet streak emerges across the northern Plains, severe weather will also be possible across North Dakota and vicinity. However, the evolution of the upper trough/jet streak is a bit more uncertain and therefore, the area with this greater concern is less clear. Eventual severe weather probabilities seem likely, but will not be added until guidance comes into better agreement regarding the upper-level pattern.
D7/Monday - Upper Midwest
As the mid-level trough shifts east on Monday, the stronger mid-level flow may overspread an unstable warm sector across parts of the Upper Midwest. Considerable uncertainty regarding the upper trough evolution and position of the surface features preclude inclusion of probabilities at this time.
..Bentley.. 06/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, June 23
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 30%
- WIND: 30%
- Wednesday, June 24
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Thursday, June 25
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Friday, June 26
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, June 27
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Sunday, June 28
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, June 29
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, June 30
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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