Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, May 8
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and severe gusts are expected to continue this evening into tonight across southern and eastern Oklahoma into north Texas. Isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging winds are possible across the Ozarks, south Texas, and the ArkLaTex across the Gulf Coast states.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 090053
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 PM CDT Fri May 08 2026
Valid 090100Z - 091200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN OK INTO NORTH TEXAS
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and severe gusts are expected to continue this evening into tonight across southern and eastern Oklahoma into north Texas. Isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging winds are possible across the Ozarks, south Texas, and the ArkLaTex across the Gulf Coast states.
OK into north TX
As of 0030z, three distinct clusters of severe storms (with embedded supercell structures) are ongoing near and to the south of I-44 in OK, with recent reports of hail up to 2.50-2.75". The 00z OUN sounding sampled the inflow air mass to the ongoing storms with steep low/mid-level lapse rates supporting moderate instability with around 50 kt of deep-layer shear. The ongoing storms are expected to continue southeast, with a sub-set of the current activity potentially moving into north TX by 03z. Large hail will remain the predominant hazard, with the damaging wind threat being more conditional on the development of an organized cold pool. For additional, short-term guidance, see the recently issued MCD 675.
### ArkLaTex to north Florida
As of 00z, widely scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across far south GA and north FL in the vicinity of a stalled front. The air mass to the south of the front remains moderately unstable with estimated MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. The current KJAX VWP is sampling around 50 kt of effective bulk shear, which coupled with the instability will remain supportive of locally strong wind gusts and perhaps some marginally severe hail for the next couple of hours.
Elsewhere, isolated storms are ongoing across parts of the Sabine River Valley, aided by a low-level warm advection regime, per regional VWPs. Short-term model guidance suggests that storms will increase in areal coverage over the next several hours in the ArkLaTex vicinity as the region is glanced by a short-wave trough passing to the immediate north. Gradual upscale growth into a forward-propagating QLCS appears possible, with the system moving into central and southern parts of LA and MS by 12z Saturday. Initial storms are likely to be somewhat elevated. However, with time the storms may become more progressively rooted within a moistening boundary layer returning north through the region. Generally weak lapse rates are expected to limit severe-weather coverage and intensity, with isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging winds appearing possible.
### South TX
A short-wave trough over southwest TX into Chihuahua, Mexico this evening will continue east tonight with downstream height falls/forcing for ascent progressively overspreading south TX. Visible satellite and mosaic radar data indicate gradually increasing convection across the high terrain of northeast Mexico, and there is some signal in model guidance that isolated storms could cross the Rio Grande into south TX overnight. The 00z DRT sounding sampled a fairly strong cap centered around 1.5 km AGL, which may initially prohibit storm development. With time, dynamic cooling aloft may be sufficient for isolated storms to move into the region with an attendant large hail and damaging wind threat.
..Mead.. 05/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Saturday, May 9
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging winds may develop across parts of the southern/central Plains Saturday afternoon and evening. An isolated severe threat is also forecast along much of the Gulf Coast, portions of the Great Lakes, and Mid-Atlantic.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 081730
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri May 08 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging winds may develop across parts of the southern/central Plains Saturday afternoon and evening. An isolated severe threat is also forecast along much of the Gulf Coast, portions of the Great Lakes, and Mid-Atlantic.
Southern/Central Plains
Within large-scale upper troughing encompassing much of the central/eastern states, a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to develop southeastward from the northern Rockies/High Plains into the central High Plains by Saturday evening. Modest/shallow low-level moisture should advance northward from TX/OK into the central High Plains ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front. Initially high-based convection should form across southeast WY/northeast CO Saturday afternoon, and subsequently spread east-southeastward in a weakly unstable but well-mixed boundary layer. Isolated severe gusts should be the main threat with this activity, but some hail could also occur with the stronger cores given cold mid-level temperatures and strong deep-layer shear.
Weak lee cyclogenesis should occur across the eastern TX Panhandle through the day, with a surface dryline extending southward from this low across west TX. Most guidance suggests moderate to locally strong instability will develop to the east of the dryline across western OK and vicinity through peak heating, with minimal MLCIN present. However, overall large-scale forcing will remain weak/nebulous, with the primary mid-level shortwave trough across the central High Plains through Saturday evening. Still, at least isolated convective initiation appears plausible along/near the dryline and surface triple point. Any convection which forms and can be sustained through the evening would tend to become supercellular and pose a threat for large hail and occasional damaging winds.
There is also some signal for a convective cluster to spread southeastward from KS into OK late Saturday evening through early Sunday morning. If this occurs, then a continued threat for isolated severe/damaging winds and hail may persist through the end of the period. Accordingly, the Marginal/Slight Risks across the southern Plains have been adjusted based on these latest guidance trends.
Coastal/South Texas into the Southeast
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of the lower MS Valley and Central Gulf Coast states along/near a stalled surface front. Given sufficiently strong westerly mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear to support updraft organization, this convection may pose an isolated hail/damaging wind threat as it moves generally east-southeastward through Saturday afternoon into a gradually destabilizing airmass.
Farther west, a southern-stream mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across coastal/south TX through the day. The presence of a rich/moist low-level airmass beneath steep mid-level lapse rates amid strong deep-layer shear will conditionally support a severe threat with any cells that can persist/develop. This potential remains somewhat unclear, as better forcing aloft associated with the mid-level shortwave trough will tend to shift eastward over the western Gulf through the day. Still, at least isolated large hail and damaging winds could occur, which supports expanding the Marginal Risk into parts of south TX.
Great Lakes
A strong mid/upper-level jet embedded within the larger-scale upper troughing centered over eastern Canada will overspread the southern Great Lakes on Saturday. Although low-level moisture will remain limited ahead of a cold front, daytime heating should aid in steepening low-level lapse rates by early Saturday afternoon, with weak MLCAPE forecast to develop. A broken band of thunderstorms should form and pose some risk for damaging winds, and perhaps hail given 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear. This convection will likely weaken through the evening as it encounters a less unstable airmass with eastward extent into the upper OH Valley and Appalachians.
Mid-Atlantic
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop Saturday afternoon across parts of southeast PA into MD/DE/NJ, where a weakly unstable but strongly sheared environment should support some updraft organization. Overall instability appears marginal to support supercells, but hail and damaging winds could occur with the strongest cores as they move quickly eastward and off the Atlantic Coast by Saturday evening.
..Gleason.. 05/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Sunday, May 10
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe/damaging winds appear likely Sunday afternoon and evening from parts of Texas into the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 30%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 081926
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri May 08 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe/damaging winds appear likely Sunday afternoon and evening from parts of Texas into the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley.
Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley
A mid-level shortwave trough will continue advancing southeastward Sunday from the central Plains into the southern Plains and lower MS Valley. While west-northwesterly mid-level flow is not forecast to be overly strong with this feature (around 30-45 kt), there should be sufficient effective bulk shear to support organized convection. At the surface, a cold front is expected to shift southeastward across these regions through the day, with a seasonably moist low-level airmass in place ahead of it. Daytime heating of this airmass and the presence of at least modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates (particularly across TX) should support the development of moderate to strong instability along/ahead of the front by early Sunday afternoon.
Thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of central/eastern OK at the start of the period, with an isolated severe threat possible. Current expectations are for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop along much of the length of the cold front from west TX northeastward into southeast OK and the ArkLaTex by mid afternoon as large-scale ascent attendant to the mid-level shortwave trough overspreads the destabilizing warm sector. While somewhat stronger mid-level winds and related deep-layer shear may tend to remain mostly displaced to the north of the cold front, initial multicell clusters and embedded supercells will likely pose a threat for both large hail and severe/damaging winds. With time, a consolidation into one or more bowing clusters should occur, with a greater risk for damaging winds, particularly across parts of central into northeast TX. The Slight Risk has been expanded to account for where confidence is greatest in scattered to potentially numerous severe/damaging winds being realized with convection Sunday afternoon and evening.
Farther east into the lower MS Valley/Southeast, confidence in organized severe convection remains somewhat lower, mainly due to uncertainty regarding sufficient instability/destabilization ahead of the front. Any cells/clusters that can form and spread east-southeastward could pose an isolated threat for hail and damaging winds. The Marginal Risk has been expanded eastward and combined with the previously separate risk area across the Gulf Coast, where isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may also occur along various sea breezes.
..Gleason.. 05/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Monday, May 11
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, May 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, May 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, May 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, May 15 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080831 SPC AC 080831
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CDT Fri May 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6
Mid-level northwesterly flow is forecast to persist across much of the central and eastern U.S. during the period from Monday to Wednesday. A cold front is forecast to move through the Southeast on Monday and into the Gulf and Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday. Isolated severe thunderstorm development will be possible near and ahead of the front each day, with the greatest potential for severe Monday afternoon and evening in parts of southern Alabama, southern Georgia, northern Florida and the coastal Carolinas. Isolated severe wind gusts is expected to be the primary threat.
Further to the north on Tuesday, another cold front is forecast to move southward through the central Plains and mid Mississippi Valley. Although low-level moisture is forecast to remain somewhat limited, enough instability could develop for an isolated severe threat. The greatest potential would be in eastern Missouri and southern Illinois in conjunction with a mid-level jet moving southeastward through the region. Hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible. A marginal severe threat could again develop near the associated trough over the central Appalachians Wednesday afternoon.
Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8
A shortwave ridge is forecast to move eastward toward the Mississippi Valley on Thursday, as another shortwave ridge moves into the High Plains on Friday. In the wake of each ridge, model forecasts develop a north-to-south axis of instability in the Great Plains. Isolated severe storms will be possible within this unstable airmass on both Thursday and Friday. At this time, uncertainty is substantial late in the day 4 to 8 period.
..Broyles.. 05/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, May 12
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, May 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, May 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, May 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, May 15 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080831 SPC AC 080831
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CDT Fri May 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6
Mid-level northwesterly flow is forecast to persist across much of the central and eastern U.S. during the period from Monday to Wednesday. A cold front is forecast to move through the Southeast on Monday and into the Gulf and Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday. Isolated severe thunderstorm development will be possible near and ahead of the front each day, with the greatest potential for severe Monday afternoon and evening in parts of southern Alabama, southern Georgia, northern Florida and the coastal Carolinas. Isolated severe wind gusts is expected to be the primary threat.
Further to the north on Tuesday, another cold front is forecast to move southward through the central Plains and mid Mississippi Valley. Although low-level moisture is forecast to remain somewhat limited, enough instability could develop for an isolated severe threat. The greatest potential would be in eastern Missouri and southern Illinois in conjunction with a mid-level jet moving southeastward through the region. Hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible. A marginal severe threat could again develop near the associated trough over the central Appalachians Wednesday afternoon.
Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8
A shortwave ridge is forecast to move eastward toward the Mississippi Valley on Thursday, as another shortwave ridge moves into the High Plains on Friday. In the wake of each ridge, model forecasts develop a north-to-south axis of instability in the Great Plains. Isolated severe storms will be possible within this unstable airmass on both Thursday and Friday. At this time, uncertainty is substantial late in the day 4 to 8 period.
..Broyles.. 05/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, May 13
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, May 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, May 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, May 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, May 15 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080831 SPC AC 080831
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CDT Fri May 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6
Mid-level northwesterly flow is forecast to persist across much of the central and eastern U.S. during the period from Monday to Wednesday. A cold front is forecast to move through the Southeast on Monday and into the Gulf and Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday. Isolated severe thunderstorm development will be possible near and ahead of the front each day, with the greatest potential for severe Monday afternoon and evening in parts of southern Alabama, southern Georgia, northern Florida and the coastal Carolinas. Isolated severe wind gusts is expected to be the primary threat.
Further to the north on Tuesday, another cold front is forecast to move southward through the central Plains and mid Mississippi Valley. Although low-level moisture is forecast to remain somewhat limited, enough instability could develop for an isolated severe threat. The greatest potential would be in eastern Missouri and southern Illinois in conjunction with a mid-level jet moving southeastward through the region. Hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible. A marginal severe threat could again develop near the associated trough over the central Appalachians Wednesday afternoon.
Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8
A shortwave ridge is forecast to move eastward toward the Mississippi Valley on Thursday, as another shortwave ridge moves into the High Plains on Friday. In the wake of each ridge, model forecasts develop a north-to-south axis of instability in the Great Plains. Isolated severe storms will be possible within this unstable airmass on both Thursday and Friday. At this time, uncertainty is substantial late in the day 4 to 8 period.
..Broyles.. 05/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, May 14
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, May 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, May 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, May 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, May 15 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080831 SPC AC 080831
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CDT Fri May 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6
Mid-level northwesterly flow is forecast to persist across much of the central and eastern U.S. during the period from Monday to Wednesday. A cold front is forecast to move through the Southeast on Monday and into the Gulf and Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday. Isolated severe thunderstorm development will be possible near and ahead of the front each day, with the greatest potential for severe Monday afternoon and evening in parts of southern Alabama, southern Georgia, northern Florida and the coastal Carolinas. Isolated severe wind gusts is expected to be the primary threat.
Further to the north on Tuesday, another cold front is forecast to move southward through the central Plains and mid Mississippi Valley. Although low-level moisture is forecast to remain somewhat limited, enough instability could develop for an isolated severe threat. The greatest potential would be in eastern Missouri and southern Illinois in conjunction with a mid-level jet moving southeastward through the region. Hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible. A marginal severe threat could again develop near the associated trough over the central Appalachians Wednesday afternoon.
Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8
A shortwave ridge is forecast to move eastward toward the Mississippi Valley on Thursday, as another shortwave ridge moves into the High Plains on Friday. In the wake of each ridge, model forecasts develop a north-to-south axis of instability in the Great Plains. Isolated severe storms will be possible within this unstable airmass on both Thursday and Friday. At this time, uncertainty is substantial late in the day 4 to 8 period.
..Broyles.. 05/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, May 15
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, May 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, May 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, May 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, May 15 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080831 SPC AC 080831
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CDT Fri May 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6
Mid-level northwesterly flow is forecast to persist across much of the central and eastern U.S. during the period from Monday to Wednesday. A cold front is forecast to move through the Southeast on Monday and into the Gulf and Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday. Isolated severe thunderstorm development will be possible near and ahead of the front each day, with the greatest potential for severe Monday afternoon and evening in parts of southern Alabama, southern Georgia, northern Florida and the coastal Carolinas. Isolated severe wind gusts is expected to be the primary threat.
Further to the north on Tuesday, another cold front is forecast to move southward through the central Plains and mid Mississippi Valley. Although low-level moisture is forecast to remain somewhat limited, enough instability could develop for an isolated severe threat. The greatest potential would be in eastern Missouri and southern Illinois in conjunction with a mid-level jet moving southeastward through the region. Hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible. A marginal severe threat could again develop near the associated trough over the central Appalachians Wednesday afternoon.
Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8
A shortwave ridge is forecast to move eastward toward the Mississippi Valley on Thursday, as another shortwave ridge moves into the High Plains on Friday. In the wake of each ridge, model forecasts develop a north-to-south axis of instability in the Great Plains. Isolated severe storms will be possible within this unstable airmass on both Thursday and Friday. At this time, uncertainty is substantial late in the day 4 to 8 period.
..Broyles.. 05/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, May 8
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Saturday, May 9
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 5%
- Sunday, May 10
- ANY SEVERE: 30%
- Monday, May 11
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, May 12
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, May 13
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, May 14
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, May 15
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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