Severe Weather Outlook
Hayley here - Do you want to see severe weather in your calendar?
* it's like an add-on for your digital calendar NOT a paper calendar
National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, September 25
Outlook Summary
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected this evening and overnight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 260045
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026
Valid 260100Z - 261200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected this evening and overnight.
Synopsis
Scattered thunderstorms continue this afternoon/evening across portions of the central and southern Rockies and Plains as shortwave trough moves northeast. Additional thunderstorms may occur across portions of far south Florida and across portions of the Pacific Northwest/Northern Rockies. Although an occasional strong wind gust or small hail may occur with the most intense thunderstorms, organized severe thunderstorm hazards are not expected.
..Marsh.. 09/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Saturday, September 26
Outlook Summary
Isolated hail and strong outflow winds may accompany thunderstorms across portions of the central and southern Plains Saturday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 251726
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
### SUMMARY
Isolated hail and strong outflow winds may accompany thunderstorms across portions of the central and southern Plains Saturday.
Synopsis
A persistent moisture plume and associated midlevel trough will be shunted eastward into the southern/central Plains as upstream heights rise over the southern Rockies, east of another weak trough just off the northern CA coast. A deep occluding cyclone will remain just off the northern Mid-Atlantic coast. In a warm advection regime near the southeast New England coast, midlevel buoyancy/depth could be sufficient for a few lightning flashes with elevated convection. A trailing cold front will drift southward into the FL Straits. Some air mass modification is expected along the southeast FL coast, where a confluence zone could support low-topped, warm process convection. However, a pronounced midlevel inversion will likely preclude sufficiently deep convection for charge separation.
Southern/central Plains late Saturday afternoon/evening
Surface-based thunderstorm development will be possible late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening within the lingering moisture plume and along a surface trough from northwest TX into central KS. A deep, surface mixed layer in areas with less cloud debris will favor isolated strong outflow gusts. The larger-scale mass response will remain weak, though vertical shear will be marginally favorable for some storm organization and an associated threat for isolated large hail.
..Thompson.. 09/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Sunday, September 27
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 251926
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.
Synopsis
Changes to the large-scale pattern will be slow Sunday into early Monday with an occluded cyclone expected to remain near the northern Mid-Atlantic coast. A midlevel shortwave trough will progress inland to CA/NV, with downstream ridging from the southern High Plains to the upper MS Valley. A weakening surface front will stall near the I-44 corridor from MO into OK, and a warm advection regime will develop late in the period across the Dakotas.
Isolated lightning flashes still may occur with elevated convection near the southeast New England coast in association with warm advection. A few thunderstorms will be possible through the day Sunday from MO into OK and north TX along the weakening front. Elevated thunderstorms will be possible Sunday night into the Dakotas where sufficient moistening occurs with strengthening warm advection. A few diurnal thunderstorms will be possible from southeast AZ into NM and far west TX within the lingering monsoonal moisture plume. The threat for isolated thunderstorms may persist through late Sunday/early Monday into more of the Rockies as moisture and ascent increase gradually downstream from the CA/NV midlevel trough. Severe thunderstorms are not expected as a result of consistently weak buoyancy and vertical shear in all of the aforementioned areas.
..Thompson.. 09/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Monday, September 28
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, September 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, September 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, September 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, October 1 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, October 2 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250824 SPC AC 250824
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper troughing over the Interior West, containing multiple smaller impulses, will gradually progress eastward to the Plains states through the middle of the week (Days 5-7/Tuesday-Thursday) before another mid-level trough approaches the central U.S. by next weekend. Deterministic medium-range guidance consensus depicts the development of a surface low over the southern Plains around Day 6/Wednesday, accompanied by seasonal low-level moisture return. However, guidance also depicts a poor overlap of vertical wind shear with the moist axis, likely inhibiting greater severe potential, in agreement with calibrated ML/AI guidance consensus. As such, no probabilities were introduced this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 09/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, September 29
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, September 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, September 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, September 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, October 1 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, October 2 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250824 SPC AC 250824
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper troughing over the Interior West, containing multiple smaller impulses, will gradually progress eastward to the Plains states through the middle of the week (Days 5-7/Tuesday-Thursday) before another mid-level trough approaches the central U.S. by next weekend. Deterministic medium-range guidance consensus depicts the development of a surface low over the southern Plains around Day 6/Wednesday, accompanied by seasonal low-level moisture return. However, guidance also depicts a poor overlap of vertical wind shear with the moist axis, likely inhibiting greater severe potential, in agreement with calibrated ML/AI guidance consensus. As such, no probabilities were introduced this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 09/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, September 30
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, September 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, September 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, September 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, October 1 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, October 2 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250824 SPC AC 250824
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper troughing over the Interior West, containing multiple smaller impulses, will gradually progress eastward to the Plains states through the middle of the week (Days 5-7/Tuesday-Thursday) before another mid-level trough approaches the central U.S. by next weekend. Deterministic medium-range guidance consensus depicts the development of a surface low over the southern Plains around Day 6/Wednesday, accompanied by seasonal low-level moisture return. However, guidance also depicts a poor overlap of vertical wind shear with the moist axis, likely inhibiting greater severe potential, in agreement with calibrated ML/AI guidance consensus. As such, no probabilities were introduced this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 09/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, October 1
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, September 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, September 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, September 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, October 1 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, October 2 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250824 SPC AC 250824
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper troughing over the Interior West, containing multiple smaller impulses, will gradually progress eastward to the Plains states through the middle of the week (Days 5-7/Tuesday-Thursday) before another mid-level trough approaches the central U.S. by next weekend. Deterministic medium-range guidance consensus depicts the development of a surface low over the southern Plains around Day 6/Wednesday, accompanied by seasonal low-level moisture return. However, guidance also depicts a poor overlap of vertical wind shear with the moist axis, likely inhibiting greater severe potential, in agreement with calibrated ML/AI guidance consensus. As such, no probabilities were introduced this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 09/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, October 2
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, September 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, September 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, September 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, October 1 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, October 2 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250824 SPC AC 250824
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper troughing over the Interior West, containing multiple smaller impulses, will gradually progress eastward to the Plains states through the middle of the week (Days 5-7/Tuesday-Thursday) before another mid-level trough approaches the central U.S. by next weekend. Deterministic medium-range guidance consensus depicts the development of a surface low over the southern Plains around Day 6/Wednesday, accompanied by seasonal low-level moisture return. However, guidance also depicts a poor overlap of vertical wind shear with the moist axis, likely inhibiting greater severe potential, in agreement with calibrated ML/AI guidance consensus. As such, no probabilities were introduced this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 09/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, September 25
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Saturday, September 26
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Sunday, September 27
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Monday, September 28
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, September 29
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, September 30
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, October 1
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, October 2
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Your Severe Outlook
Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.
Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.
Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.
About Severe Weather Outlook . com
SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.
- tornado hq - live severe weather warnings
- cyclocane - hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones
- tornado solitaire - play cards while you monitor the US severe weather threat
- tertremo - live view of earthquakes around the world
- earthquake solitaire - get live earthquake updates as you play your favorite card game