Severe Weather Outlook
Hayley here - Do you want to see severe weather in your calendar?
* it's like an add-on for your digital calendar NOT a paper calendar
National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, May 9
Outlook Summary
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail, locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a few tornadoes are possible in parts of western into central Oklahoma Saturday afternoon and evening. Sparser large hail and damaging wind occurrences are possible across the Gulf Coast states, the northern and central High Plains, the Great Lakes, and possibly mid-Atlantic.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 091203
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0703 AM CDT Sat May 09 2026
Valid 091300Z - 101200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
### SUMMARY
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail, locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a few tornadoes are possible in parts of western into central Oklahoma Saturday afternoon and evening. Sparser large hail and damaging wind occurrences are possible across the Gulf Coast states, the northern and central High Plains, the Great Lakes, and possibly mid-Atlantic.
Plains
A flat upper ridge will be present today over the southwest states and southern Rockies, while stronger flow aloft extends from the northern Rockies into the mid MS Valley and eastern states. The cold front that triggered convection over OK on Friday has stalled over north TX and will slowly return northward through the day today. Despite relatively weak low-level winds, dewpoints will climb through the 50s across western OK leading to an axis of moderate CAPE by late afternoon. Strong heating along/behind a diffuse dryline will likely lead to isolated thunderstorm development. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail. Given the weak forcing aloft, storm coverage is likely to be rather sparse through the evening. But those storms that can persist will be in a progressively more moist and sheared environment that could support the risk of a tornado or two.
Elsewhere farther north, steep low and mid-level lapse rates will promote a risk of scattered high-based afternoon thunderstorms capable of gusty winds and hail from eastern WY/CO into western NE/KS.
Gulf Coast
Clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning over parts of LA/MS/AL. This activity will persist through the day and spread eastward. Limited heating and rather weak shear profiles will limit the overall severe threat. But nevertheless a few storms may occasionally become intense - capable of gusty/damaging winds and hail.
Lower Great Lakes and Mid Atlantic
A large upper trough will track from Ontario into Quebec today, while the associated cold front sweeps southeastward across the lower Great Lakes region. Sufficient instability is forecast to support a line of thunderstorms forming over Lakes Erie/Ontario and spreading into parts of OH/PA/NY this evening. Gusty winds and small hail are expected, with a few reports of severe wind/hail possible.
A corridor of moderate surface heating will extend from central VA into NJ today, helping to destabilize this region and lead to widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms. CAM solutions suggest the storms that form will struggle to organize/intensify, but there will be sufficient CAPE/shear to support some risk of a damaging wind gust or two through early evening.
..Hart/Wendt.. 05/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Sunday, May 10
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gust appear likely Sunday afternoon and evening from parts of west and central Texas east-northeastward into the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter and severe wind gusts above 70 mph will be possible across parts of west-central, central and north Texas.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 30%
hail 30%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 090600
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat May 09 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gust appear likely Sunday afternoon and evening from parts of west and central Texas east-northeastward into the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter and severe wind gusts above 70 mph will be possible across parts of west-central, central and north Texas.
Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex/Lower Mississippi Valley
A positively-tilted mid-level shortwave trough will move southeastward into the southern Plains on Sunday. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward across an area from west and north Texas into the Ark-La-Tex. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 65 to 70 F range, which will contribute to moderate destabilization by afternoon. Surface-based convective initiation is expected around midday, as surface warming takes place and low-level convergence increases near the front. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms appear likely to develop, with a large complex of storms moving southeastward across north and central Texas during the afternoon.
South of the front over much of the southern Plains, model forecasts increase MLCAPE into the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range by afternoon. Also, 850-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be between 7.5 and 8 C/km ahead of the front. This, combined with 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 40 knot range, will be favorable for semi-discrete supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible in areas that destabilize the most, particularly across parts of west-central and north-central Texas. In addition, 0-3 km lapse rates are forecast to become very steep, exceeding 9 C/km in some areas. As cells increase in coverage and merge during the mid to late afternoon, MCS development will be possible. The very steep low-level lapse rates will support a wind-damage threat. If a cold pool can organize, then the wind-damage threat would likely increase during the late afternoon, and wind gusts above 70 mph would be possible.
Further east-northeast into the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley, convective coverage is expected to be a bit more widely spaced. The environment will be characterized by moderate deep-layer shear and sufficient instability for a severe threat. Damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail will be the primary threats.
Southeast
A very moist airmass will be in place on Sunday from the central Gulf Coast states eastward to the Atlantic. Surface dewpoints will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s F, with moderate instability developing by afternoon. Although large-scale ascent will be limited, convergence boundaries appear likely to develop inland from the coastal areas during the afternoon. Storms that can form along these favored zones may have potential for isolated severe wind gusts, mainly due to precipitation loading.
..Broyles.. 05/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Monday, May 11
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe storms with locally damaging wind gusts are expected on Monday from parts of the central Gulf Coast states eastward to the southern Atlantic Seaboard.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 090714
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Sat May 09 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST STATES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe storms with locally damaging wind gusts are expected on Monday from parts of the central Gulf Coast states eastward to the southern Atlantic Seaboard.
Central and Eastern Gulf Coast States/Carolinas
At mid-levels, heights will fall across the Southeast on Monday, as a trough progresses eastward into the Atlantic coastal states. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the Southeast. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place inland across the central Gulf Coast and northeastward into much of Georgia, South Carolina and far southern North Carolina. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop around midday along and ahead of the front, and near coastal convergence zones. Steep low-level lapse rates and deep low-level moisture will be favorable for isolated severe gusts associated with multicells that develop in the afternoon.
..Broyles.. 05/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Tuesday, May 12
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, May 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, May 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, May 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, May 16 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090843 SPC AC 090843
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sat May 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5.
On Tuesday and Wednesday, northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place over the central U.S. A shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, and into the central Appalachians on Wednesday. Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the trough each day, but weak instability should keep any severe threat marginal.
Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8
On Thursday, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. A north-to-south axis of instability is forecast to develop in the wake of the ridge across the Great Plains. Isolated severe storms will be possible along parts of this corridor Thursday afternoon and evening.
On Friday, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast to be in place over a moist and unstable airmass from eastern Kansas southward into Oklahoma, where isolated severe storms may develop during the afternoon and evening.
On Saturday, strong low-level moisture advection is forecast to develop over the south-central U.S., as a mid-level shortwave trough moves into the southern Plains. Near this trough, scattered thunderstorm development will be possible. Moderate deep-layer shear and instability should be favorable for an isolated severe threat during the afternoon and evening, mainly from Oklahoma southward into west-central Texas.
Considering the last few days of the Day 4 to 8 period, recent models have shown substantial variability from run to run. Scenarios have been outlined based on model consensus. However, confidence is low concerning potential outcomes, especially this upcoming weekend.
..Broyles.. 05/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, May 13
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, May 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, May 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, May 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, May 16 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090843 SPC AC 090843
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sat May 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5.
On Tuesday and Wednesday, northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place over the central U.S. A shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, and into the central Appalachians on Wednesday. Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the trough each day, but weak instability should keep any severe threat marginal.
Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8
On Thursday, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. A north-to-south axis of instability is forecast to develop in the wake of the ridge across the Great Plains. Isolated severe storms will be possible along parts of this corridor Thursday afternoon and evening.
On Friday, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast to be in place over a moist and unstable airmass from eastern Kansas southward into Oklahoma, where isolated severe storms may develop during the afternoon and evening.
On Saturday, strong low-level moisture advection is forecast to develop over the south-central U.S., as a mid-level shortwave trough moves into the southern Plains. Near this trough, scattered thunderstorm development will be possible. Moderate deep-layer shear and instability should be favorable for an isolated severe threat during the afternoon and evening, mainly from Oklahoma southward into west-central Texas.
Considering the last few days of the Day 4 to 8 period, recent models have shown substantial variability from run to run. Scenarios have been outlined based on model consensus. However, confidence is low concerning potential outcomes, especially this upcoming weekend.
..Broyles.. 05/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, May 14
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, May 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, May 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, May 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, May 16 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090843 SPC AC 090843
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sat May 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5.
On Tuesday and Wednesday, northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place over the central U.S. A shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, and into the central Appalachians on Wednesday. Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the trough each day, but weak instability should keep any severe threat marginal.
Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8
On Thursday, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. A north-to-south axis of instability is forecast to develop in the wake of the ridge across the Great Plains. Isolated severe storms will be possible along parts of this corridor Thursday afternoon and evening.
On Friday, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast to be in place over a moist and unstable airmass from eastern Kansas southward into Oklahoma, where isolated severe storms may develop during the afternoon and evening.
On Saturday, strong low-level moisture advection is forecast to develop over the south-central U.S., as a mid-level shortwave trough moves into the southern Plains. Near this trough, scattered thunderstorm development will be possible. Moderate deep-layer shear and instability should be favorable for an isolated severe threat during the afternoon and evening, mainly from Oklahoma southward into west-central Texas.
Considering the last few days of the Day 4 to 8 period, recent models have shown substantial variability from run to run. Scenarios have been outlined based on model consensus. However, confidence is low concerning potential outcomes, especially this upcoming weekend.
..Broyles.. 05/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, May 15
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, May 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, May 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, May 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, May 16 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090843 SPC AC 090843
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sat May 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5.
On Tuesday and Wednesday, northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place over the central U.S. A shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, and into the central Appalachians on Wednesday. Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the trough each day, but weak instability should keep any severe threat marginal.
Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8
On Thursday, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. A north-to-south axis of instability is forecast to develop in the wake of the ridge across the Great Plains. Isolated severe storms will be possible along parts of this corridor Thursday afternoon and evening.
On Friday, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast to be in place over a moist and unstable airmass from eastern Kansas southward into Oklahoma, where isolated severe storms may develop during the afternoon and evening.
On Saturday, strong low-level moisture advection is forecast to develop over the south-central U.S., as a mid-level shortwave trough moves into the southern Plains. Near this trough, scattered thunderstorm development will be possible. Moderate deep-layer shear and instability should be favorable for an isolated severe threat during the afternoon and evening, mainly from Oklahoma southward into west-central Texas.
Considering the last few days of the Day 4 to 8 period, recent models have shown substantial variability from run to run. Scenarios have been outlined based on model consensus. However, confidence is low concerning potential outcomes, especially this upcoming weekend.
..Broyles.. 05/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, May 16
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, May 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, May 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, May 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, May 16 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090843 SPC AC 090843
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sat May 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5.
On Tuesday and Wednesday, northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place over the central U.S. A shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, and into the central Appalachians on Wednesday. Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the trough each day, but weak instability should keep any severe threat marginal.
Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8
On Thursday, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. A north-to-south axis of instability is forecast to develop in the wake of the ridge across the Great Plains. Isolated severe storms will be possible along parts of this corridor Thursday afternoon and evening.
On Friday, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast to be in place over a moist and unstable airmass from eastern Kansas southward into Oklahoma, where isolated severe storms may develop during the afternoon and evening.
On Saturday, strong low-level moisture advection is forecast to develop over the south-central U.S., as a mid-level shortwave trough moves into the southern Plains. Near this trough, scattered thunderstorm development will be possible. Moderate deep-layer shear and instability should be favorable for an isolated severe threat during the afternoon and evening, mainly from Oklahoma southward into west-central Texas.
Considering the last few days of the Day 4 to 8 period, recent models have shown substantial variability from run to run. Scenarios have been outlined based on model consensus. However, confidence is low concerning potential outcomes, especially this upcoming weekend.
..Broyles.. 05/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, May 9
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Sunday, May 10
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 30%
- WIND: 30%
- Monday, May 11
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Tuesday, May 12
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, May 13
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, May 14
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, May 15
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, May 16
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Your Severe Outlook
Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.
Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.
Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.
About Severe Weather Outlook . com
SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.
- tornado hq - live severe weather warnings
- cyclocane - hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones
- tornado solitaire - play cards while you monitor the US severe weather threat
- tertremo - live view of earthquakes around the world
- earthquake solitaire - get live earthquake updates as you play your favorite card game