Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, May 23
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are possible through evening, mainly across the Lower Mississippi Valley and parts of West Texas. Other more isolated severe storms are possible in portions of the Southeast, Ohio, and the central High Plains.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 231928
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Valid 232000Z - 241200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are possible through evening, mainly across the Lower Mississippi Valley and parts of West Texas. Other more isolated severe storms are possible in portions of the Southeast, Ohio, and the central High Plains.
20z Update
The only changes to the 20z Day 1 Outlook are to remove probabilities across parts of TX/LA/MS in the wake of an northeastward-advancing MCS. Otherwise, forecast reasoning remains similar to the previous outlook, detailed below. For more detailed information on short term severe potential along the TX Coast and the central High Plains, reference MCDs 838 and 839.
..Leitman.. 05/23/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026/
Lower Mississippi Valley
An ongoing semi-well-organized cluster of storms appears to be aided by an MCV, and will likely continue east-northeastward today across the ArkLaMiss and broader parts of Mississippi, to the north of more extensive weaker convection closer to the coast in southern Louisiana. Ample heating ahead of the cluster and steepening low-level lapse rates will support wind potential aside from a modest MCV-related flow enhancement. A brief tornado could also occur, although thunderstorm wind damage is most probable.
West Texas/Southern High Plains
Relatively weak mid-level flow and an ill-defined surface pattern aptly characterize the severe-potential setup for later today into the evening across this region. Residual low-level moisture and steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (reference the 12 UTC Midland, TX raob; 8.7 deg C/km) in combination with strong heating will result in moderate instability developing by mid-late afternoon, stronger with southward extent across the Texas South Plains into southwest Texas. At least widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop from near the Colorado/Panhandles border region southward into the Edwards Plateau. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be the primary severe hazards. A gradual clustering is expected during the evening before this activity diminishes by late evening.
Georgia/South Carolina
A weak mid-level disturbance will move east-northeastward today. Ahead of it, adequate heating of a moist boundary layer will yield 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE by early afternoon and scattered showers/thunderstorms are forecast. Deep-layer shear will support some multicellular organization in the form of a few thunderstorm clusters. The stronger water-loaded downdrafts will potentially yield a localized wind-damage risk during the afternoon before this threat wanes by early evening.
Central High Plains
Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon within a belt of stronger cyclonic mid-level flow associated with a north-central U.S. larger-scale mid-level trough. The 30-40 kt 500-mb flow and steepened surface to 400-mb lapse rates may support a couple of locally stronger thunderstorms late this afternoon through early evening. Locally severe hail/wind will be the threats with these storms.
Ohio
A couple of rotating storms could develop regionally this afternoon within a belt of residually strong low-level flow. A brief/low-end tornado threat may exist.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Sunday, May 24
Outlook Summary
Strong to locally severe storms are possible from parts of the central Plains into the Upper Midwest, mainly Sunday afternoon and evening. Isolated large to very large hail and localized severe gusts will be possible.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 231725
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN KS INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN NE…SOUTHEAST SD…SOUTHWEST MN…NORTHWEST IA
### SUMMARY
Strong to locally severe storms are possible from parts of the central Plains into the Upper Midwest, mainly Sunday afternoon and evening. Isolated large to very large hail and localized severe gusts will be possible.
Central Plains into the Upper Midwest
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough initially over the Upper Midwest will move over the Great Lakes region on Sunday. Broad southerly flow between a surface ridge near the mid MS Valley and a lee trough over the High Plains will result in some moisture return into parts of the central Plains and Upper Midwest, though the magnitude of this moisture return remains somewhat uncertain. Steep midlevel lapse rates and relatively cool midlevel temperatures atop the returning moisture will result in moderate to locally strong destabilization by late afternoon.
Broad midlevel height rises are expected across the region, in the wake of the departing shortwave trough. However, guidance suggests that one or more weak midlevel vorticity maxima may aid in at least isolated diurnal thunderstorm development near a weak surface trough/dryline from central NE into southeast SD/southwest MN. Deep-layer flow will remain generally modest, but veering wind profiles and 30-40 kt of effective shear will conditionally support supercells, if surface-based development can be sustained. Large to very large hail and localized severe gusts could accompany any supercell development during the afternoon and evening.
A Level 2/Slight Risk upgrade was considered for parts of the region, but due to uncertainties regarding low-level moisture and storm coverage, have opted to maintain a Level 1/Marginal Risk, with a conditional area highlighting very large hail potential, should any sustained supercells develop.
Southeast/southern Appalachians
Scattered thunderstorm development is again expected across the region, within a moist and uncapped environment. A belt of 20-30 kt midlevel flow to the east of the mid/upper trough across TX will provide modest deep-layer shear, but weak midlevel lapse rates will tend to limit updraft intensity. Locally damaging wind cannot be ruled out with convection across the region, but the organized-severe threat currently appears too limited and nebulous to include probabilities at this time. If a robust MCV emerges from extensive convection near the Gulf Coast, then somewhat more organized severe potential could evolve through the day.
LA Gulf Coast/Lower MS Valley vicinity
Widespread convection is expected to persist from D1/Saturday into D2/Sunday across parts of the LA Gulf Coast and lower MS Valley, as the nearly stationary mid/upper trough over TX interacts with rich moisture. Generally weak flow and lapse rates are currently expected to limit the organized-severe threat. Any more organized potential for a brief tornado or locally damaging wind would likely be contingent on MCV development, but this scenario remains highly uncertain at this time.
Lower OH Valley/Allegheny Plateau
Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Ohio Valley and Allegheny Plateau during the afternoon, in association with the mid/upper trough moving across the Great Lakes region. Modest midlevel flow will overspread the region and isolated strong storms will be possible, but weak lapse rates and modest buoyancy are expected to limit severe potential.
..Dean.. 05/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Monday, May 25
Outlook Summary
Organized severe-thunderstorm potential currently appears low for Monday. Isolated strong storms may develop across parts of the Great Plains, Upper Midwest, and Southeast.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 231926
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Organized severe-thunderstorm potential currently appears low for Monday. Isolated strong storms may develop across parts of the Great Plains, Upper Midwest, and Southeast.
Synopsis
Little change to the overall pattern expected across the CONUS on Monday. A very slow-moving mid/upper low/trough is expected to remain in the vicinity of east TX/western LA, which will maintain potential for scattered to widespread thunderstorms across parts of the Gulf Coast and Southeast. Another slow-moving mid/upper trough will support thunderstorm potential across parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies. A vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move into the Pacific Northwest during the afternoon and evening.
Central Plains into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region
Moderate to locally strong buoyancy may develop Monday afternoon from parts of the central Plains into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes, though some uncertainty remains regarding the quality of low-level moisture across this region.
Modest west-northwesterly midlevel flow will result in 30-40 kt of effective shear across parts of MN/WI and Upper MI, but confidence in storm development within this conditionally favorable environment is low, with midlevel height rises and generally minimal large-scale ascent expected across the region.
Forcing will also be weak into parts of the central Plains, but strong heating and presence of a remnant surface boundary may support isolated storm development from late afternoon into the evening. A threat for localized hail and strong to severe gusts could accompany the strongest storms, but weak deep-layer shear and uncertainty regarding storm coverage limit confidence in organized severe potential at this time.
Southern NM into west TX
Isolated strong storms could develop on Monday from parts of southern NM into west TX, in advance of the mid/upper trough over the Southwest. At this time, it appears that the stronger forcing associated with the upper trough will remain displaced from the richer moisture across parts of central/southwest TX through most of the period. However, a faster trough ejection and/or more substantial moisture return could result in an isolated severe threat during the late afternoon and evening.
Parts of the Gulf Coast/Southeast
Modest enhancement to midlevel flow may continue across parts of the Gulf Coast and Southeast, to the east of the persistent mid/upper low/trough over east TX. Depending on the evolution of D1/D2 convection and any MCV development, a low-probability severe threat could evolve over some part of this region, but confidence is much too low to include probabilities at this time.
..Dean.. 05/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Tuesday, May 26
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, May 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, May 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, May 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, May 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, May 30 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230853 SPC AC 230853
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 311200Z
DISCUSSION
A trough will deepen and shift eastward across the Pacific Northwest D4/Tuesday-D5/Wednesday. As the upper low slowly shifts eastward, stronger flow will overspread the Intermountain West into the Northern Rockies which will result in strengthening lee troughing across the central/northern Plains. Moisture advection will spread northward with the strengthening southerly flow across the central/northern Plains. Severe storms may occur each day across some portion of the northern and northern/central High Plains. In addition, strengthening southern stream flow may bring stronger storms across the Sierra Madre which may bring severe potential into portions of far southern Texas. For now, confidence in exact corridors of greater severe potential remains low.
By D6/Thursday-D8/Saturday, guidance suggests the western low becomes cut off and slowly wobbles towards the Great Basin before becoming absorbed back into the northern stream, likely due to the high amplitude ridging across the central. Some severe potential may extend into the eastern US as a cold front shifts southward as flow enhances in the trough across Quebec in the D6-D7 period.
..Thornton.. 05/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, May 27
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, May 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, May 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, May 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, May 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, May 30 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230853 SPC AC 230853
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 311200Z
DISCUSSION
A trough will deepen and shift eastward across the Pacific Northwest D4/Tuesday-D5/Wednesday. As the upper low slowly shifts eastward, stronger flow will overspread the Intermountain West into the Northern Rockies which will result in strengthening lee troughing across the central/northern Plains. Moisture advection will spread northward with the strengthening southerly flow across the central/northern Plains. Severe storms may occur each day across some portion of the northern and northern/central High Plains. In addition, strengthening southern stream flow may bring stronger storms across the Sierra Madre which may bring severe potential into portions of far southern Texas. For now, confidence in exact corridors of greater severe potential remains low.
By D6/Thursday-D8/Saturday, guidance suggests the western low becomes cut off and slowly wobbles towards the Great Basin before becoming absorbed back into the northern stream, likely due to the high amplitude ridging across the central. Some severe potential may extend into the eastern US as a cold front shifts southward as flow enhances in the trough across Quebec in the D6-D7 period.
..Thornton.. 05/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, May 28
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, May 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, May 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, May 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, May 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, May 30 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230853 SPC AC 230853
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 311200Z
DISCUSSION
A trough will deepen and shift eastward across the Pacific Northwest D4/Tuesday-D5/Wednesday. As the upper low slowly shifts eastward, stronger flow will overspread the Intermountain West into the Northern Rockies which will result in strengthening lee troughing across the central/northern Plains. Moisture advection will spread northward with the strengthening southerly flow across the central/northern Plains. Severe storms may occur each day across some portion of the northern and northern/central High Plains. In addition, strengthening southern stream flow may bring stronger storms across the Sierra Madre which may bring severe potential into portions of far southern Texas. For now, confidence in exact corridors of greater severe potential remains low.
By D6/Thursday-D8/Saturday, guidance suggests the western low becomes cut off and slowly wobbles towards the Great Basin before becoming absorbed back into the northern stream, likely due to the high amplitude ridging across the central. Some severe potential may extend into the eastern US as a cold front shifts southward as flow enhances in the trough across Quebec in the D6-D7 period.
..Thornton.. 05/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, May 29
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, May 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, May 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, May 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, May 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, May 30 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230853 SPC AC 230853
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 311200Z
DISCUSSION
A trough will deepen and shift eastward across the Pacific Northwest D4/Tuesday-D5/Wednesday. As the upper low slowly shifts eastward, stronger flow will overspread the Intermountain West into the Northern Rockies which will result in strengthening lee troughing across the central/northern Plains. Moisture advection will spread northward with the strengthening southerly flow across the central/northern Plains. Severe storms may occur each day across some portion of the northern and northern/central High Plains. In addition, strengthening southern stream flow may bring stronger storms across the Sierra Madre which may bring severe potential into portions of far southern Texas. For now, confidence in exact corridors of greater severe potential remains low.
By D6/Thursday-D8/Saturday, guidance suggests the western low becomes cut off and slowly wobbles towards the Great Basin before becoming absorbed back into the northern stream, likely due to the high amplitude ridging across the central. Some severe potential may extend into the eastern US as a cold front shifts southward as flow enhances in the trough across Quebec in the D6-D7 period.
..Thornton.. 05/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, May 30
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, May 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, May 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, May 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, May 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, May 30 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230853 SPC AC 230853
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 311200Z
DISCUSSION
A trough will deepen and shift eastward across the Pacific Northwest D4/Tuesday-D5/Wednesday. As the upper low slowly shifts eastward, stronger flow will overspread the Intermountain West into the Northern Rockies which will result in strengthening lee troughing across the central/northern Plains. Moisture advection will spread northward with the strengthening southerly flow across the central/northern Plains. Severe storms may occur each day across some portion of the northern and northern/central High Plains. In addition, strengthening southern stream flow may bring stronger storms across the Sierra Madre which may bring severe potential into portions of far southern Texas. For now, confidence in exact corridors of greater severe potential remains low.
By D6/Thursday-D8/Saturday, guidance suggests the western low becomes cut off and slowly wobbles towards the Great Basin before becoming absorbed back into the northern stream, likely due to the high amplitude ridging across the central. Some severe potential may extend into the eastern US as a cold front shifts southward as flow enhances in the trough across Quebec in the D6-D7 period.
..Thornton.. 05/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, May 23
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Sunday, May 24
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Monday, May 25
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Tuesday, May 26
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, May 27
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, May 28
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, May 29
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, May 30
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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