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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Tuesday, September 8

Outlook Summary

A few severe storms capable of mainly severe wind gusts appear possible across portions of Iowa this evening.

Outlook Images

overview

overview severe weather outlook for Tuesday, September  8

tornado low

tornado severe weather outlook for Tuesday, September  8

wind 15%

wind severe weather outlook for Tuesday, September  8

hail low

hail severe weather outlook for Tuesday, September  8

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 090036

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Tue Sep 08 2026

Valid 090100Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF IOWA

### SUMMARY

A few severe storms capable of mainly severe wind gusts appear possible across portions of Iowa this evening.

Discussion

Widely scattered thunderstorm activity continues across the surface boundary extending from portions of central/southern Iowa into southern Nebraska and northern/western Kansas. A more organized cluster is ongoing across portions of south-central Iowa. This cluster will continue to pose a wind threat for the next couple of hours before eventually moving southeast into less favorable air across southeastern Iowa/western Illinois. Additional convection will evolve overnight with the increasing low-level jet across central Kansas into southeastern Nebraska and southern Iowa. This will pose at least some potential for small hail and strong to severe wind.

Across Colorado, scattered convection is ongoing near the foothills of the Front Range. Time lagged HRRR/RRFS guidance continues to suggest that this evolves into a cluster with potential for strong to severe wind to continue downstream this evening. Though moisture is limited, very warm surface temperatures and steep low to mid-level lapse rates are supporting at least marginally unstable conditions downstream.

..Thornton.. 09/09/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, September 9

Outlook Summary

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central Plains to the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. A more organized severe weather threat is expected from eastern Ohio to western New York.

Outlook Images

overview

overview severe weather outlook for Wednesday, September  9

tornado 2%

tornado severe weather outlook for Wednesday, September  9

wind 15%

wind severe weather outlook for Wednesday, September  9

hail 5%

hail severe weather outlook for Wednesday, September  9

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 081708

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 PM CDT Tue Sep 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN NEW YORK

### SUMMARY

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central Plains to the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. A more organized severe weather threat is expected from eastern Ohio to western New York.

Eastern Ohio into western New York

A mid-level trough will move from the Upper Midwest to the Northeast on Wednesday with moderate mid-level flow expanding along the southern periphery of this trough. A strong surface low associated with this trough will move across northern Ontario with a cold front extending into the Midwest. Ahead of this front, low 70s dewpoints are forecast to advect northward across Ohio, Pennsylvania, and western New York. Mid-level lapse rates will be relatively weak, but the moist environment will support moderate instability amid moderate effective shear. A line of storms is forecast to develop along the front from central Ohio into western New York. This environment should support damaging winds. Some tornado threat may exist as the low-level flow strengthens during the afternoon with clockwise curved low-level hodographs. However, a mostly linear storm mode should limit the overall tornado threat.

Ohio Valley to the central Plains

Moderate instability is forecast to develop from the central Plains to the Ohio Valley. Across the plains, instability will be driven by a hot, deeply mixed environment while instability farther east will be driven by 70s dewpoints. Within this entire zone, mid-level flow is expected to remain quite weak which will limit storm organization. Water-loaded downbursts farther east and drier microbursts in the mixed environment farther west will be the primary hazard within the Marginal Risk. A zone of greater instability from eastern Missouri into western Indiana could support an isolated hail threat, particularly if some of this greater instability can spread beneath stronger mid-level flow. However, morning convection/cloudcover may be present where this most favorable environment could develop.

..Bentley.. 09/08/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Thursday, September 10

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Thursday.

Outlook Images

overview

overview severe weather outlook for Thursday, September 10

any severe low

any severe severe weather outlook for Thursday, September 10

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 081849

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Tue Sep 08 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Thursday.

Discussion

As a mid-level trough moves into the western Atlantic on Thursday, surface high pressure will build into the Midwest/Great Lakes in its wake. South of this high pressure center a front will extend from Virginia to the central Plains. An expansive area of precipitation is expected along this front at the beginning of the period which should result in lesser instability, particularly east of the Appalachians. Farther west, moderate instability is expected near the front from the Lower Ohio Valley to the southern High Plains. Mid-level flow (and thus deep-layer shear) will be weak across much of this zone. Therefore, greater instability and storm clustering will likely be necessary for a marginal severe weather threat. This may occur across portions of the Ozarks or the southern High Plains, but the signal is weak at this time. Therefore, no severe weather probabilities are warranted.

A mid-level trough will translate quickly eastward across the Northwest on Thursday with ascent overspreading north-central Montana by Thursday night. A few fast-moving storms are expected across north-central Montana late Thursday night and early Friday morning amid weak instability. Despite the dynamic system, weak instability and unfavorable diurnal timing preclude severe weather probabilities at this time.

..Bentley.. 09/08/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Friday, September 11

Outlook Images

any severe 15%

any severe severe weather outlook for Friday, September 11

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Friday, September 11 15%
Day 5 Saturday, September 12 predictability too low
Day 6 Sunday, September 13 predictability too low
Day 7 Monday, September 14 predictability too low
Day 8 Tuesday, September 15 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080724 SPC AC 080724

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Tue Sep 08 2026

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-5/Fri-Sat – Plains to the Great Lakes vicinity

Severe potential could develop across portions of the Plains into the Upper Midwest on Day 4/Friday as boundary layer moisture spreads northward ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front. Moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the front, and enhanced vertical shear courtesy of a modest upper shortwave trough moving across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest vicinity, should be sufficient for organized convection mainly from Friday evening into early Saturday.

Some severe potential could persist into Day 5 Saturday as the surface front stalls over the central/southern Plains vicinity but continues eastward across the upper Great Lakes region. A moist boundary layer will be in place, but stronger flow aloft will become increasing displaced to the north of stronger instability, precluding 15 percent delineation at this time.

Days 6-8/Sun-Tue

An upper trough over the northwestern U.S. will develop eastward across the Plains and Great Lakes early next week. Another cold front will move across the area, and some severe potential could again sweep across the Plains to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity. Medium range forecast guidance generally maintains stronger instability offset from enhanced flow aloft, partly due to the early cold frontal passage in the Day 4-5/Friday-Saturday time frame and strong surface high pressure over the Great Lakes in the wake of that frontal passage. Trends will be monitored and probabilities could become necessary in later outlooks.

..Leitman.. 09/08/2026

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Outlook for Saturday, September 12

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Saturday, September 12

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Friday, September 11 15%
Day 5 Saturday, September 12 predictability too low
Day 6 Sunday, September 13 predictability too low
Day 7 Monday, September 14 predictability too low
Day 8 Tuesday, September 15 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080724 SPC AC 080724

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Tue Sep 08 2026

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-5/Fri-Sat – Plains to the Great Lakes vicinity

Severe potential could develop across portions of the Plains into the Upper Midwest on Day 4/Friday as boundary layer moisture spreads northward ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front. Moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the front, and enhanced vertical shear courtesy of a modest upper shortwave trough moving across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest vicinity, should be sufficient for organized convection mainly from Friday evening into early Saturday.

Some severe potential could persist into Day 5 Saturday as the surface front stalls over the central/southern Plains vicinity but continues eastward across the upper Great Lakes region. A moist boundary layer will be in place, but stronger flow aloft will become increasing displaced to the north of stronger instability, precluding 15 percent delineation at this time.

Days 6-8/Sun-Tue

An upper trough over the northwestern U.S. will develop eastward across the Plains and Great Lakes early next week. Another cold front will move across the area, and some severe potential could again sweep across the Plains to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity. Medium range forecast guidance generally maintains stronger instability offset from enhanced flow aloft, partly due to the early cold frontal passage in the Day 4-5/Friday-Saturday time frame and strong surface high pressure over the Great Lakes in the wake of that frontal passage. Trends will be monitored and probabilities could become necessary in later outlooks.

..Leitman.. 09/08/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, September 13

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Sunday, September 13

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Friday, September 11 15%
Day 5 Saturday, September 12 predictability too low
Day 6 Sunday, September 13 predictability too low
Day 7 Monday, September 14 predictability too low
Day 8 Tuesday, September 15 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080724 SPC AC 080724

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Tue Sep 08 2026

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-5/Fri-Sat – Plains to the Great Lakes vicinity

Severe potential could develop across portions of the Plains into the Upper Midwest on Day 4/Friday as boundary layer moisture spreads northward ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front. Moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the front, and enhanced vertical shear courtesy of a modest upper shortwave trough moving across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest vicinity, should be sufficient for organized convection mainly from Friday evening into early Saturday.

Some severe potential could persist into Day 5 Saturday as the surface front stalls over the central/southern Plains vicinity but continues eastward across the upper Great Lakes region. A moist boundary layer will be in place, but stronger flow aloft will become increasing displaced to the north of stronger instability, precluding 15 percent delineation at this time.

Days 6-8/Sun-Tue

An upper trough over the northwestern U.S. will develop eastward across the Plains and Great Lakes early next week. Another cold front will move across the area, and some severe potential could again sweep across the Plains to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity. Medium range forecast guidance generally maintains stronger instability offset from enhanced flow aloft, partly due to the early cold frontal passage in the Day 4-5/Friday-Saturday time frame and strong surface high pressure over the Great Lakes in the wake of that frontal passage. Trends will be monitored and probabilities could become necessary in later outlooks.

..Leitman.. 09/08/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Monday, September 14

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Monday, September 14

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Friday, September 11 15%
Day 5 Saturday, September 12 predictability too low
Day 6 Sunday, September 13 predictability too low
Day 7 Monday, September 14 predictability too low
Day 8 Tuesday, September 15 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080724 SPC AC 080724

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Tue Sep 08 2026

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-5/Fri-Sat – Plains to the Great Lakes vicinity

Severe potential could develop across portions of the Plains into the Upper Midwest on Day 4/Friday as boundary layer moisture spreads northward ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front. Moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the front, and enhanced vertical shear courtesy of a modest upper shortwave trough moving across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest vicinity, should be sufficient for organized convection mainly from Friday evening into early Saturday.

Some severe potential could persist into Day 5 Saturday as the surface front stalls over the central/southern Plains vicinity but continues eastward across the upper Great Lakes region. A moist boundary layer will be in place, but stronger flow aloft will become increasing displaced to the north of stronger instability, precluding 15 percent delineation at this time.

Days 6-8/Sun-Tue

An upper trough over the northwestern U.S. will develop eastward across the Plains and Great Lakes early next week. Another cold front will move across the area, and some severe potential could again sweep across the Plains to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity. Medium range forecast guidance generally maintains stronger instability offset from enhanced flow aloft, partly due to the early cold frontal passage in the Day 4-5/Friday-Saturday time frame and strong surface high pressure over the Great Lakes in the wake of that frontal passage. Trends will be monitored and probabilities could become necessary in later outlooks.

..Leitman.. 09/08/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Tuesday, September 15

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Tuesday, September 15

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Friday, September 11 15%
Day 5 Saturday, September 12 predictability too low
Day 6 Sunday, September 13 predictability too low
Day 7 Monday, September 14 predictability too low
Day 8 Tuesday, September 15 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080724 SPC AC 080724

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Tue Sep 08 2026

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-5/Fri-Sat – Plains to the Great Lakes vicinity

Severe potential could develop across portions of the Plains into the Upper Midwest on Day 4/Friday as boundary layer moisture spreads northward ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front. Moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the front, and enhanced vertical shear courtesy of a modest upper shortwave trough moving across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest vicinity, should be sufficient for organized convection mainly from Friday evening into early Saturday.

Some severe potential could persist into Day 5 Saturday as the surface front stalls over the central/southern Plains vicinity but continues eastward across the upper Great Lakes region. A moist boundary layer will be in place, but stronger flow aloft will become increasing displaced to the north of stronger instability, precluding 15 percent delineation at this time.

Days 6-8/Sun-Tue

An upper trough over the northwestern U.S. will develop eastward across the Plains and Great Lakes early next week. Another cold front will move across the area, and some severe potential could again sweep across the Plains to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity. Medium range forecast guidance generally maintains stronger instability offset from enhanced flow aloft, partly due to the early cold frontal passage in the Day 4-5/Friday-Saturday time frame and strong surface high pressure over the Great Lakes in the wake of that frontal passage. Trends will be monitored and probabilities could become necessary in later outlooks.

..Leitman.. 09/08/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, September 8
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: 15%
Wednesday, September 9
TORNADO: 2%
HAIL: 5%
WIND: 15%
Thursday, September 10
ANY SEVERE: low
Friday, September 11
ANY SEVERE: 15%
Saturday, September 12
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, September 13
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, September 14
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, September 15
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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