Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, December 31
Outlook Summary
Isolated thunderstorms may occur across parts of southern California late tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 010052
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025
Valid 010100Z - 011200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated thunderstorms may occur across parts of southern California late tonight.
01z Update
Well-defined upper low is lifting northeast toward the southern CA coast as a 500mb speed max translates into the base of the trough, but remaining offshore. Left exit region of this jet will encourage convection along the weak front as it surges toward the coast late tonight. Primary concern for lightning will be after 09z, but this activity will be elevated and within a poor instability environment. Severe risk appears minimal tonight.
..Darrow.. 01/01/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Thursday, January 1
Outlook Summary
Locally damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible along a portion of coastal southern California on New Year's Day morning.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 311724
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR COASTAL SOUTHERN CA
### SUMMARY
Locally damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible along a portion of coastal southern California on New Year's Day morning.
Southern CA
A compact midlevel shortwave trough is forecast to move across parts of southern CA toward the San Joaquin Valley through the day, before dampening somewhat as it approaches the Great Basin during the evening. The strongest DCVA and cooling aloft will generally be displaced north of the most favorable low-level moisture, but some thunderstorm potential will continue to accompany this system for at least the first part of the day.
The greatest relative potential for surface-based convection appears to be across immediate coastal areas of southern CA and adjacent offshore regions, where surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the low 60s F. Deep-layer shear will not be particularly strong, but 30-40 kt of 700 mb flow and modest enlargement of low-level hodographs could support potential for weakly rotating storms. While confidence in sufficiently robust convection is not high, locally damaging wind and/or a brief tornado cannot be ruled out with any stronger cells near the coast, primarily during the morning.
..Dean.. 12/31/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Friday, January 2
Outlook Summary
General thunderstorms are forecast, mainly Friday night into early morning Saturday, across the central Gulf Coast and Deep South, as well as along coastal areas of central and northern California and southwest Orgeon.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 311930
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
General thunderstorms are forecast, mainly Friday night into early morning Saturday, across the central Gulf Coast and Deep South, as well as along coastal areas of central and northern California and southwest Orgeon.
LA/MS/AL vicinity
A low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough is forecast to move from the south-central Plains towards the TN Valley on Friday. A somewhat stronger upstream shortwave trough will move quickly east-southeastward from the Great Basin toward parts of north/east TX. A surface low initially over north TX is expected to move eastward toward northern MS/AL by Friday night. Increasing low-level moisture within the warm sector of this low will allow for modest diurnal destabilization, with MLCAPE potentially increasing to near/above 500 J/kg across parts of LA/MS, in advance of a trailing cold front.
Strengthening deep-layer shear will become conditionally favorable for organized convection, but potential for robust surface-based development may be limited by poor midlevel lapse rates and relatively modest large-scale ascent within the warm sector. It still appears that the bulk of any thunderstorm development will be somewhat elevated and occur near and north of the surface warm front across northern MS/AL/GA and southern TN, primarily during the evening and overnight. At this time, elevated buoyancy appears insufficient to support an organized severe threat with this activity. However, if confidence increases regarding development of near-surface-based storms within the warm sector of the eastward-moving low, then severe probabilities may eventually be needed.
Coastal northern CA/southwest OR
A deep mid/upper-level trough will gradually move eastward and approach the Pacific Coast by Friday night, as a strong jet begins to impinge upon areas of central/northern CA and the Pacific Northwest. A deepening surface low associated with this trough is expected to remain offshore through Saturday morning. The strongest low-level flow (50+ kt at 850 mb) will occur within the warm conveyor of this cyclone, where instability is expected to remain negligible.
Late in the period, some cooling aloft and steepening lapse rates may approach coastal areas of central/northern CA and southwest OR. This may allow for development of generally weak convection with sproadic lightning flashes. Low-level flow is forecast to remain rather strong (35-45 kt at 850 mb) as midlevel lapse rates begin to steepen, and any lightning-producing convection could be coincident with gusty winds. However, any convective contribution to damaging-wind potential may be limited by very meager surface-based buoyancy through the end of the period.
..Dean.. 12/31/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Saturday, January 3
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, January 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, January 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, January 5 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, January 6 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, January 7 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 310951 SPC AC 310951
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
Primary severe concern will be across the northeast Gulf Coast States, during the morning to afternoon on D4/Saturday. A lower-amplitude shortwave trough remains consistently progged to dampen as it progresses quickly across the Southeast and northeast Gulf. With a weak surface cyclone, low-level winds should remain veered. But this should be adequate for weak buoyancy to spread east, emanating from the northwest Gulf and LA. With a more robust convective signal closer to the coast compared to D3/Friday, at least a level 1-MRGL risk should be warranted. This is supported by latest SPC-CSU and NSSL GEFS-based ML guidance with overlapping 5 percent probability areas.
Along coastal CA, while run-to-run predictability is poor, latest guidance has some signal for low-topped supercell potential this weekend, downstream of a large-scale trough off the Pacific Coast. This appears generally focused across northern CA on D4/Saturday, shifting to southern CA on D5/Sunday. Spatiotemporal aspects of individual shortwave impulses and attendant mid-level jetlets relative to probable scant/meager buoyancy profiles will be crucial for delineating areal highlights in shorter-term outlooks.
Otherwise, a combination of low potential/predictability remains evident early next week.
..Grams.. 12/31/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, January 4
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, January 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, January 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, January 5 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, January 6 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, January 7 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 310951 SPC AC 310951
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
Primary severe concern will be across the northeast Gulf Coast States, during the morning to afternoon on D4/Saturday. A lower-amplitude shortwave trough remains consistently progged to dampen as it progresses quickly across the Southeast and northeast Gulf. With a weak surface cyclone, low-level winds should remain veered. But this should be adequate for weak buoyancy to spread east, emanating from the northwest Gulf and LA. With a more robust convective signal closer to the coast compared to D3/Friday, at least a level 1-MRGL risk should be warranted. This is supported by latest SPC-CSU and NSSL GEFS-based ML guidance with overlapping 5 percent probability areas.
Along coastal CA, while run-to-run predictability is poor, latest guidance has some signal for low-topped supercell potential this weekend, downstream of a large-scale trough off the Pacific Coast. This appears generally focused across northern CA on D4/Saturday, shifting to southern CA on D5/Sunday. Spatiotemporal aspects of individual shortwave impulses and attendant mid-level jetlets relative to probable scant/meager buoyancy profiles will be crucial for delineating areal highlights in shorter-term outlooks.
Otherwise, a combination of low potential/predictability remains evident early next week.
..Grams.. 12/31/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, January 5
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, January 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, January 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, January 5 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, January 6 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, January 7 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 310951 SPC AC 310951
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
Primary severe concern will be across the northeast Gulf Coast States, during the morning to afternoon on D4/Saturday. A lower-amplitude shortwave trough remains consistently progged to dampen as it progresses quickly across the Southeast and northeast Gulf. With a weak surface cyclone, low-level winds should remain veered. But this should be adequate for weak buoyancy to spread east, emanating from the northwest Gulf and LA. With a more robust convective signal closer to the coast compared to D3/Friday, at least a level 1-MRGL risk should be warranted. This is supported by latest SPC-CSU and NSSL GEFS-based ML guidance with overlapping 5 percent probability areas.
Along coastal CA, while run-to-run predictability is poor, latest guidance has some signal for low-topped supercell potential this weekend, downstream of a large-scale trough off the Pacific Coast. This appears generally focused across northern CA on D4/Saturday, shifting to southern CA on D5/Sunday. Spatiotemporal aspects of individual shortwave impulses and attendant mid-level jetlets relative to probable scant/meager buoyancy profiles will be crucial for delineating areal highlights in shorter-term outlooks.
Otherwise, a combination of low potential/predictability remains evident early next week.
..Grams.. 12/31/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, January 6
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, January 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, January 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, January 5 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, January 6 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, January 7 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 310951 SPC AC 310951
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
Primary severe concern will be across the northeast Gulf Coast States, during the morning to afternoon on D4/Saturday. A lower-amplitude shortwave trough remains consistently progged to dampen as it progresses quickly across the Southeast and northeast Gulf. With a weak surface cyclone, low-level winds should remain veered. But this should be adequate for weak buoyancy to spread east, emanating from the northwest Gulf and LA. With a more robust convective signal closer to the coast compared to D3/Friday, at least a level 1-MRGL risk should be warranted. This is supported by latest SPC-CSU and NSSL GEFS-based ML guidance with overlapping 5 percent probability areas.
Along coastal CA, while run-to-run predictability is poor, latest guidance has some signal for low-topped supercell potential this weekend, downstream of a large-scale trough off the Pacific Coast. This appears generally focused across northern CA on D4/Saturday, shifting to southern CA on D5/Sunday. Spatiotemporal aspects of individual shortwave impulses and attendant mid-level jetlets relative to probable scant/meager buoyancy profiles will be crucial for delineating areal highlights in shorter-term outlooks.
Otherwise, a combination of low potential/predictability remains evident early next week.
..Grams.. 12/31/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, January 7
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, January 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, January 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, January 5 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, January 6 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, January 7 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 310951 SPC AC 310951
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
Primary severe concern will be across the northeast Gulf Coast States, during the morning to afternoon on D4/Saturday. A lower-amplitude shortwave trough remains consistently progged to dampen as it progresses quickly across the Southeast and northeast Gulf. With a weak surface cyclone, low-level winds should remain veered. But this should be adequate for weak buoyancy to spread east, emanating from the northwest Gulf and LA. With a more robust convective signal closer to the coast compared to D3/Friday, at least a level 1-MRGL risk should be warranted. This is supported by latest SPC-CSU and NSSL GEFS-based ML guidance with overlapping 5 percent probability areas.
Along coastal CA, while run-to-run predictability is poor, latest guidance has some signal for low-topped supercell potential this weekend, downstream of a large-scale trough off the Pacific Coast. This appears generally focused across northern CA on D4/Saturday, shifting to southern CA on D5/Sunday. Spatiotemporal aspects of individual shortwave impulses and attendant mid-level jetlets relative to probable scant/meager buoyancy profiles will be crucial for delineating areal highlights in shorter-term outlooks.
Otherwise, a combination of low potential/predictability remains evident early next week.
..Grams.. 12/31/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, December 31
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Thursday, January 1
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Friday, January 2
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Saturday, January 3
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, January 4
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, January 5
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, January 6
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, January 7
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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