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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Wednesday, March 18
Thursday, March 19
Friday, March 20
Saturday, March 21
Sunday, March 22
Monday, March 23
Tuesday, March 24
Wednesday, March 25

Outlook for Wednesday, March 18

Outlook Summary

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible today across far south Florida.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 181947

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Valid 182000Z - 191200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible today across far south Florida.

Synopsis

The previous forecast remains on track with no adjustments required. Latest GOES imagery shows shallow convection developing immediately north of the current thunder line and south of Lake Okeechobee. While a lightning flash or two is possible with this activity, the lack of vertical development/limited cloud phase change (per Day Cloud Phase imagery) limits confidence in lightning potential. Latest guidance continues to suggest the greatest lightning threat will remain along the southeast FL coast through evening.

..Moore.. 03/18/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1044 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026/

Synopsis

A substantial upper high and attendant ridge is apparent in morning water vapor imagery over the western U.S. Further east, a stalled front is noted across the Bahamas and Florida Straits. Surface high pressure in the wake of the frontal boundary across the Southeast will maintain offshore trajectories and a dearth of boundary layer moisture. This will preclude thunderstorm activity across most of the CONUS.

Some lingering low-level moisture and weak elevated instability may support a couple of thunderstorms over far south FL and portions of the Keys today, though most activity will remain offshore.

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

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Outlook for Thursday, March 19

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 181715

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

Synopsis

Little change to the large-scale pattern is expected on Thursday, with an upper ridge remaining in place over the western CONUS, and a deep upper trough over the East. A general dearth of moisture and instability will continue to limit thunderstorm potential over most of the CONUS.

Near and offshore of the southeast FL Peninsula, modest moisture and instability may support weak convection as a midlevel shortwave moves through the large-scale trough. This convection may pose a low (around 10 percent) thunderstorm threat, mainly during the latter half of the forecast period.

..Dean.. 03/18/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Friday, March 20

Outlook Summary

A low chance of a few thunderstorms may develop on Friday near the Upper Ohio Valley and vicinity, and also near the southeast Florida coast.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 181855

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

A low chance of a few thunderstorms may develop on Friday near the Upper Ohio Valley and vicinity, and also near the southeast Florida coast.

Synopsis

An expansive upper ridge will remain in place over most of the western CONUS on Friday. A downstream large-scale upper trough will persist over the East. Within the large-scale trough, one shortwave will move offshore of Florida early in the period, while an upstream shortwave moves across the Great Lakes. A surface low will accompany the Great Lakes shortwave trough as it moves southeastward, as a trailing cold front moves through the Ohio Valley.

A low probability (around 10 percent) thunderstorm threat may continue from late D2/Thursday into early D3/Friday near the southeast FL coast. Farther north, modest low-level moistening (with dewpoints increasing to near/above 50 F) may support isolated thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening near the Upper Ohio Valley, in the vicinity of the advancing cold front. Weak instability is currently expected to limit organized severe-thunderstorm potential.

..Dean.. 03/18/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Saturday, March 21

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Saturday, March 21 potential too low
Day 5 Sunday, March 22 potential too low
Day 6 Monday, March 23 potential too low
Day 7 Tuesday, March 24 potential too low
Day 8 Wednesday, March 25 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180717 SPC AC 180717

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper ridge is forecast to break down across the Southwest late Saturday/D4 into Sunday/D5, with a weak wave embedded in the northwesterly flow regime aloft. During the same time, a stronger but low-amplitude feature will move rapidly east/southeast along the Canadian border, across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast.

In association with the northern/Great Lakes disturbance, a cold front is forecast to push south into the Plains on Sunday/D5, extending into the OH Valley by late in the day. This front will interact with marginal moisture return across the Mid MS/OH Valleys, and continue into the Southeast on Monday/D6. This front is forecast to be roughly parallel to the upper flow, and would likely undercut thunderstorms that develop along it. MUCAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg seems reasonable, which will support marginal severe at best.

For the latter days of the period, the forecast becomes less predictable, however, models on a run to run basis appear to be trending toward higher heights/possible ridging over the Southwest, with little to no threat of severe storms.

..Jewell.. 03/18/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, March 22

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Saturday, March 21 potential too low
Day 5 Sunday, March 22 potential too low
Day 6 Monday, March 23 potential too low
Day 7 Tuesday, March 24 potential too low
Day 8 Wednesday, March 25 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180717 SPC AC 180717

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper ridge is forecast to break down across the Southwest late Saturday/D4 into Sunday/D5, with a weak wave embedded in the northwesterly flow regime aloft. During the same time, a stronger but low-amplitude feature will move rapidly east/southeast along the Canadian border, across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast.

In association with the northern/Great Lakes disturbance, a cold front is forecast to push south into the Plains on Sunday/D5, extending into the OH Valley by late in the day. This front will interact with marginal moisture return across the Mid MS/OH Valleys, and continue into the Southeast on Monday/D6. This front is forecast to be roughly parallel to the upper flow, and would likely undercut thunderstorms that develop along it. MUCAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg seems reasonable, which will support marginal severe at best.

For the latter days of the period, the forecast becomes less predictable, however, models on a run to run basis appear to be trending toward higher heights/possible ridging over the Southwest, with little to no threat of severe storms.

..Jewell.. 03/18/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, March 23

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Saturday, March 21 potential too low
Day 5 Sunday, March 22 potential too low
Day 6 Monday, March 23 potential too low
Day 7 Tuesday, March 24 potential too low
Day 8 Wednesday, March 25 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180717 SPC AC 180717

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper ridge is forecast to break down across the Southwest late Saturday/D4 into Sunday/D5, with a weak wave embedded in the northwesterly flow regime aloft. During the same time, a stronger but low-amplitude feature will move rapidly east/southeast along the Canadian border, across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast.

In association with the northern/Great Lakes disturbance, a cold front is forecast to push south into the Plains on Sunday/D5, extending into the OH Valley by late in the day. This front will interact with marginal moisture return across the Mid MS/OH Valleys, and continue into the Southeast on Monday/D6. This front is forecast to be roughly parallel to the upper flow, and would likely undercut thunderstorms that develop along it. MUCAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg seems reasonable, which will support marginal severe at best.

For the latter days of the period, the forecast becomes less predictable, however, models on a run to run basis appear to be trending toward higher heights/possible ridging over the Southwest, with little to no threat of severe storms.

..Jewell.. 03/18/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Tuesday, March 24

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Saturday, March 21 potential too low
Day 5 Sunday, March 22 potential too low
Day 6 Monday, March 23 potential too low
Day 7 Tuesday, March 24 potential too low
Day 8 Wednesday, March 25 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180717 SPC AC 180717

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper ridge is forecast to break down across the Southwest late Saturday/D4 into Sunday/D5, with a weak wave embedded in the northwesterly flow regime aloft. During the same time, a stronger but low-amplitude feature will move rapidly east/southeast along the Canadian border, across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast.

In association with the northern/Great Lakes disturbance, a cold front is forecast to push south into the Plains on Sunday/D5, extending into the OH Valley by late in the day. This front will interact with marginal moisture return across the Mid MS/OH Valleys, and continue into the Southeast on Monday/D6. This front is forecast to be roughly parallel to the upper flow, and would likely undercut thunderstorms that develop along it. MUCAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg seems reasonable, which will support marginal severe at best.

For the latter days of the period, the forecast becomes less predictable, however, models on a run to run basis appear to be trending toward higher heights/possible ridging over the Southwest, with little to no threat of severe storms.

..Jewell.. 03/18/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Wednesday, March 25

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Saturday, March 21 potential too low
Day 5 Sunday, March 22 potential too low
Day 6 Monday, March 23 potential too low
Day 7 Tuesday, March 24 potential too low
Day 8 Wednesday, March 25 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180717 SPC AC 180717

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper ridge is forecast to break down across the Southwest late Saturday/D4 into Sunday/D5, with a weak wave embedded in the northwesterly flow regime aloft. During the same time, a stronger but low-amplitude feature will move rapidly east/southeast along the Canadian border, across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast.

In association with the northern/Great Lakes disturbance, a cold front is forecast to push south into the Plains on Sunday/D5, extending into the OH Valley by late in the day. This front will interact with marginal moisture return across the Mid MS/OH Valleys, and continue into the Southeast on Monday/D6. This front is forecast to be roughly parallel to the upper flow, and would likely undercut thunderstorms that develop along it. MUCAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg seems reasonable, which will support marginal severe at best.

For the latter days of the period, the forecast becomes less predictable, however, models on a run to run basis appear to be trending toward higher heights/possible ridging over the Southwest, with little to no threat of severe storms.

..Jewell.. 03/18/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, March 18
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: low
Thursday, March 19
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: low
Friday, March 20
ANY SEVERE: low
Saturday, March 21
ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, March 22
ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, March 23
ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, March 24
ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, March 25
ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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