Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, April 7
Outlook Summary
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected today across parts of the Florida Peninsula, the southern Rockies, and northern High Plains. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 070454
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected today across parts of the Florida Peninsula, the southern Rockies, and northern High Plains. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
Synopsis
A mid-level trough will eject over the Atlantic while another pronounced mid-level trough rapidly traverses the northern Rockies today. Meanwhile, multiple low-amplitude impulses traversing relatively zonal upper flow will overspread the Southwest and the FL Peninsula. Across the Southern Rockies, enough lift amid cool air aloft (and thus scant buoyancy) should accompany the aforementioned low-amplitude mid-level impulse to support isolated to potentially scattered thunderstorm development. Scattered thunderstorms may also develop across the FL Peninsula along sea-breeze boundaries given a moist, heated low-level airmass. Scattered high-based/low-topped storms are likely across the northern High Plains with the approach of the upper trough. Storms will develop atop a deep and dry boundary layer, but with scant buoyancy. Given the dry boundary layer, gusty conditions may accompany the stronger storms. However, the severe wind threat currently appears too low for the introduction of a Category 1/Marginal risk at this time.
..Squitieri/Chalmers.. 04/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Wednesday, April 8
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail will be possible in parts of western and central Kansas late Wednesday afternoon into the evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 070600
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail will be possible in parts of western and central Kansas late Wednesday afternoon into the evening.
Western and Central Kansas
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the north-central U.S. on Wednesday. Ahead of the system, a broad low-level jet will move through the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the central Plains on Wednesday, with moisture advection occurring to the south of the front over much of the region. By early evening, the front is forecast to be located across northern Kansas. As low-level convergence increases along the front during the late afternoon, convective initiation will become likely. A broken line of thunderstorms is expected to develop in northern and western Kansas, moving southeastward into south-central Kansas during the evening. The NAM forecast sounding at Garden City, Kansas late Wednesday afternoon has MUCAPE near 750 J/kg with about 35 knots of effective shear and 850-500 mb lapse rates greater 8 C/km. This should be enough for isolated large hail with the stronger cells. The hail threat should continue into the early to mid evening, as a low-level jet ramps up across over the central Plains.
..Broyles.. 04/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Thursday, April 9
Outlook Summary
An isolated threat for large hail and severe wind gusts is expected to develop on Thursday in parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley westward into the central Plains. Isolated severe storms with hail may also develop in the southern High Plains.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 070726
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
### SUMMARY
An isolated threat for large hail and severe wind gusts is expected to develop on Thursday in parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley westward into the central Plains. Isolated severe storms with hail may also develop in the southern High Plains.
Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley
A mid-levels, a broad cyclonic flow pattern will be in place on Thursday over much of the northern U.S., with westerly flow in the central states. At the surface, a slow moving front is forecast to remain over western and northern Kansas extending eastward into northern Missouri. The front will be a focus for convection during the afternoon and evening, with scattered thunderstorms becoming likely. NAM forecast soundings near the front by early evening have MUCAPE ranging from around 2500 J/kg in north-central Kansas to around 1200 J/kg in northern Missouri. Effective shear along much of this east-to-west corridor is forecast to be from 35 to 45 knots, with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7 to 8 C/km. This should support a marginal severe threat. Supercells with isolated large hail and strong wind gusts will be possible.
Southern High Plains
An upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the Intermountain West on Thursday, as westerly mid-level flow remains in place over the south-central U.S. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located across the southern Plains. A dryline is forecast to develop over west Texas by Thursday afternoon. Although large-scale ascent will remain weak, low-level convergence near the dryline may be enough for isolated convective initiation. Model forecasts suggest that an axis of moderate instability will be in place to the east of the dryline by afternoon, with MLCAPE in the 1200 to 1500 J/kg range. In addition, steep mid-level lapse rates will be in place. This should support an isolated large hail threat with any cells that can initiate, in spite of the limited forcing.
..Broyles.. 04/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Friday, April 10
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, April 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, April 11 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Sunday, April 12 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Monday, April 13 | 15% |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, April 14 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070856 SPC AC 070856
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6
An upper-level trough will move eastward from the eastern Pacific on Friday into the western U.S. on Saturday, as southwest mid-level flow gradually strengthens over the south-central states. In response, low-level moisture advection will continue over the Great Plains. Ahead of the western U.S. trough, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move into the southern High Plains Saturday afternoon. A severe threat will be possible ahead of and near the trough during the afternoon and evening.
On Sunday, the western U.S. upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly east-northeastward into the southern Rockies. Ahead of the trough, a moist and moderately unstable airmass is forecast over much of the southern and central Plains by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop over much of this airmass during the afternoon and evening. Moderate to strong deep-layer shear appear likely to be in place, which will be favorable for severe storms. Supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts and a tornado threat will be possible. An isolated severe threat may also develop in parts of the north-central U.S.
Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8
A secondary upper-level trough is forecast to move into the Desert Southwest on Monday. Ahead of this system, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to remain in place from the southern Plains north-northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Although a severe threat will be possible along much of the instability corridor, the greatest threat is expected to develop in the southern Plains, where model forecasts show the most favorable environment.
On Tuesday, model forecasts have some agreement concerning the timing of the trough, which is forecast to eject northeastward across the southern and central Plains. Ahead of the trough, there is large variance among the models concerning the distribution of instability. If a moderately unstable airmass is in place by Tuesday afternoon ahead of the ejecting system, a severe threat will be likely from the southern Plains into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. However, the system will probably be slower than forecast, which adds considerable uncertainty this late in the period.
..Broyles.. 04/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, April 11
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, April 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, April 11 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Sunday, April 12 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Monday, April 13 | 15% |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, April 14 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070856 SPC AC 070856
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6
An upper-level trough will move eastward from the eastern Pacific on Friday into the western U.S. on Saturday, as southwest mid-level flow gradually strengthens over the south-central states. In response, low-level moisture advection will continue over the Great Plains. Ahead of the western U.S. trough, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move into the southern High Plains Saturday afternoon. A severe threat will be possible ahead of and near the trough during the afternoon and evening.
On Sunday, the western U.S. upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly east-northeastward into the southern Rockies. Ahead of the trough, a moist and moderately unstable airmass is forecast over much of the southern and central Plains by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop over much of this airmass during the afternoon and evening. Moderate to strong deep-layer shear appear likely to be in place, which will be favorable for severe storms. Supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts and a tornado threat will be possible. An isolated severe threat may also develop in parts of the north-central U.S.
Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8
A secondary upper-level trough is forecast to move into the Desert Southwest on Monday. Ahead of this system, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to remain in place from the southern Plains north-northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Although a severe threat will be possible along much of the instability corridor, the greatest threat is expected to develop in the southern Plains, where model forecasts show the most favorable environment.
On Tuesday, model forecasts have some agreement concerning the timing of the trough, which is forecast to eject northeastward across the southern and central Plains. Ahead of the trough, there is large variance among the models concerning the distribution of instability. If a moderately unstable airmass is in place by Tuesday afternoon ahead of the ejecting system, a severe threat will be likely from the southern Plains into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. However, the system will probably be slower than forecast, which adds considerable uncertainty this late in the period.
..Broyles.. 04/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, April 12
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, April 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, April 11 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Sunday, April 12 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Monday, April 13 | 15% |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, April 14 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070856 SPC AC 070856
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6
An upper-level trough will move eastward from the eastern Pacific on Friday into the western U.S. on Saturday, as southwest mid-level flow gradually strengthens over the south-central states. In response, low-level moisture advection will continue over the Great Plains. Ahead of the western U.S. trough, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move into the southern High Plains Saturday afternoon. A severe threat will be possible ahead of and near the trough during the afternoon and evening.
On Sunday, the western U.S. upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly east-northeastward into the southern Rockies. Ahead of the trough, a moist and moderately unstable airmass is forecast over much of the southern and central Plains by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop over much of this airmass during the afternoon and evening. Moderate to strong deep-layer shear appear likely to be in place, which will be favorable for severe storms. Supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts and a tornado threat will be possible. An isolated severe threat may also develop in parts of the north-central U.S.
Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8
A secondary upper-level trough is forecast to move into the Desert Southwest on Monday. Ahead of this system, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to remain in place from the southern Plains north-northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Although a severe threat will be possible along much of the instability corridor, the greatest threat is expected to develop in the southern Plains, where model forecasts show the most favorable environment.
On Tuesday, model forecasts have some agreement concerning the timing of the trough, which is forecast to eject northeastward across the southern and central Plains. Ahead of the trough, there is large variance among the models concerning the distribution of instability. If a moderately unstable airmass is in place by Tuesday afternoon ahead of the ejecting system, a severe threat will be likely from the southern Plains into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. However, the system will probably be slower than forecast, which adds considerable uncertainty this late in the period.
..Broyles.. 04/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, April 13
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, April 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, April 11 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Sunday, April 12 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Monday, April 13 | 15% |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, April 14 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070856 SPC AC 070856
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6
An upper-level trough will move eastward from the eastern Pacific on Friday into the western U.S. on Saturday, as southwest mid-level flow gradually strengthens over the south-central states. In response, low-level moisture advection will continue over the Great Plains. Ahead of the western U.S. trough, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move into the southern High Plains Saturday afternoon. A severe threat will be possible ahead of and near the trough during the afternoon and evening.
On Sunday, the western U.S. upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly east-northeastward into the southern Rockies. Ahead of the trough, a moist and moderately unstable airmass is forecast over much of the southern and central Plains by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop over much of this airmass during the afternoon and evening. Moderate to strong deep-layer shear appear likely to be in place, which will be favorable for severe storms. Supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts and a tornado threat will be possible. An isolated severe threat may also develop in parts of the north-central U.S.
Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8
A secondary upper-level trough is forecast to move into the Desert Southwest on Monday. Ahead of this system, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to remain in place from the southern Plains north-northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Although a severe threat will be possible along much of the instability corridor, the greatest threat is expected to develop in the southern Plains, where model forecasts show the most favorable environment.
On Tuesday, model forecasts have some agreement concerning the timing of the trough, which is forecast to eject northeastward across the southern and central Plains. Ahead of the trough, there is large variance among the models concerning the distribution of instability. If a moderately unstable airmass is in place by Tuesday afternoon ahead of the ejecting system, a severe threat will be likely from the southern Plains into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. However, the system will probably be slower than forecast, which adds considerable uncertainty this late in the period.
..Broyles.. 04/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, April 14
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, April 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, April 11 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Sunday, April 12 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Monday, April 13 | 15% |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, April 14 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070856 SPC AC 070856
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6
An upper-level trough will move eastward from the eastern Pacific on Friday into the western U.S. on Saturday, as southwest mid-level flow gradually strengthens over the south-central states. In response, low-level moisture advection will continue over the Great Plains. Ahead of the western U.S. trough, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move into the southern High Plains Saturday afternoon. A severe threat will be possible ahead of and near the trough during the afternoon and evening.
On Sunday, the western U.S. upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly east-northeastward into the southern Rockies. Ahead of the trough, a moist and moderately unstable airmass is forecast over much of the southern and central Plains by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop over much of this airmass during the afternoon and evening. Moderate to strong deep-layer shear appear likely to be in place, which will be favorable for severe storms. Supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts and a tornado threat will be possible. An isolated severe threat may also develop in parts of the north-central U.S.
Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8
A secondary upper-level trough is forecast to move into the Desert Southwest on Monday. Ahead of this system, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to remain in place from the southern Plains north-northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Although a severe threat will be possible along much of the instability corridor, the greatest threat is expected to develop in the southern Plains, where model forecasts show the most favorable environment.
On Tuesday, model forecasts have some agreement concerning the timing of the trough, which is forecast to eject northeastward across the southern and central Plains. Ahead of the trough, there is large variance among the models concerning the distribution of instability. If a moderately unstable airmass is in place by Tuesday afternoon ahead of the ejecting system, a severe threat will be likely from the southern Plains into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. However, the system will probably be slower than forecast, which adds considerable uncertainty this late in the period.
..Broyles.. 04/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, April 7
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Wednesday, April 8
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: low
- Thursday, April 9
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Friday, April 10
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, April 11
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Sunday, April 12
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Monday, April 13
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Tuesday, April 14
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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