Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Sunday, July 12

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated to scattered severe/damaging winds may occur this afternoon/evening across parts of the Carolinas/Southeast into the southern Plains, and separately over southern/central Arizona. Large hail and severe winds also appear possible over portions of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 121634

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Valid 121630Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS…SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ARIZONA…AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated to scattered severe/damaging winds may occur this afternoon/evening across parts of the Carolinas/Southeast into the southern Plains, and separately over southern/central Arizona. Large hail and severe winds also appear possible over portions of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.

Carolinas/Southeast into the Southern Plains

Midday visible-satellite imagery shows an agitated cumulus field over north-central GA to the south of a differential heating zone/weak front draped across the southern Appalachians and west to east across the Carolinas. Surface temperatures will continue to warm into the 90s F south of the more prevalent cloud cover over the Upstate of SC and western/central NC. Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop in several clusters across the Southeast with strong to locally severe gusts capable of wind damage being the primary hazard. Farther west, more widely spaced clusters will likely develop over the central Gulf Coast states into the Ark-La-Tex region. Locally damaging gusts will be possible with the stronger thunderstorms.

Into parts of the southern High Plains, a seasonably moist boundary layer will become moderately unstable by mid afternoon. Steep 0-3 km lapse rates will favor isolated severe gusts with the stronger downdrafts. Considered a small Slight Risk over the TX South Plains but some uncertainty regarding storm coverage precluded higher severe probabilities this outlook update.

Upper Midwest/Great Lakes

Northwest-flow regime will maintain a plume of elevated mixed layer air atop a moist low-level airmass. It is uncertain whether additional storm development will occur this afternoon in association with a morning cluster of strong to severe storms over parts of the U.P. Nonetheless, sufficient shear/buoyancy for supercells and organized storms structures lends a continued conditional risk for severe storms into this evening/tonight. Some guidance shows an eventual outflow-dominant cluster moving into parts of the region tonight, with some potential for damaging gusts. ### Arizona

Very strong heating will again yield a hot and well-mixed boundary layer by mid afternoon. Isolated to scattered storms are forecast to develop on the Rim and gradually propagate into the lower desert, aided by moderate easterly mid-level flow (30-kt at 500 mb sampled by the 12 UTC Phoenix raob). Strong evaporative cooling of the more water-laden downdrafts will be capable of severe gusts (60-75 mph).

Montana

A weak front along with very strong heating may suffice for a few high-based thunderstorms to develop late this afternoon across north-central MT. Very steep low to mid-level lapse rates and deep inverted-V profiles imply some potential for severe gusts with the stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts.

..Smith/Chalmers.. 07/12/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

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Outlook for Monday, July 13

Outlook Summary

A few strong-to-severe storms will be possible from South Carolina into central Georgia and far North Florida on Monday.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 120559

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH FLORIDA INTO MUCH OF SOUTH CAROLINA

### SUMMARY

A few strong-to-severe storms will be possible from South Carolina into central Georgia and far North Florida on Monday.

Synopsis

A large mid-level ridge, centered over the upper-Mississippi Valley, will encompass much of the US on Monday. To the south of the ridge center, broad northeast-to-easterly mid-level flow will prevail. A weak mid-level trough over the Tennessee Valley will continue to slowly weaken as the mid-level ridge expands eastward to its north. On the southwest side of the ridge, easterly-to-southeasterly mid-level flow will persist across the Southwest.

At the surface, a high-pressure area will be centered over the Corn Belt, with a weak low-pressure area continuing to meander over the Southeast along a stalled boundary across Georgia into South Carolina.

### North Florida into South Carolina

To the south of the previously mentioned stalled boundary, surface dewpoints should be in the upper-60Fs to low-70Fs. Scattered thunderstorms should develop during the afternoon with peak heating. Guidance is trending cooler with afternoon temperatures as compared to previous days (mid-80Fs versus mid-90Fs), which should preclude widespread low-level lapse rates typically needed for strong, damaging thunderstorm outflows. However, given the presence of a weak surface low and a stalled outflow boundary that may focus thunderstorm development, the 5% wind probabilities have been maintained, although the resulting coverage of wind reports should be less than in preceding days.

### Arizona

A conditional severe threat exists across southern Arizona on Monday. The background environment of seasonably moist low levels and modest easterly mid-level flow would seem to support some potential for one or more westward moving thunderstorm clusters. These clusters would be capable of strong thunderstorm outflow winds given very steep low-level lapse rates. However, significant convection is expected across the region on Sunday, which may scour out the better low-level moisture or leave behind sufficient convective cloud cover that modulates diurnal heating. Given this uncertainty, and the marginal nature of the assessed severe threat at this time, will hold off on adding unconditional severe wind probabilities.

### Western Montana

Thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon across the higher terrain of western Montana, particularly southwestern areas. Modest surface dewpoints and expected cloud cover should limit buoyancy and overall updraft intensity. However, should a stronger storm develop, strong mid-level flow would support thunderstorms capable of strong, gusty outflows.

..Marsh.. 07/12/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, July 14

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and evening across portions of New England on Tuesday. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of western and central Montana.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 120730

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and evening across portions of New England on Tuesday. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of western and central Montana.

Synopsis

An expansive mid-level ridge centered over the north-central US will begin to retrograde on Tuesday as a strong short-wave trough digs southeast out of Canada toward New England. As the ridge builds west, the mid-level height gradient will increase across the northwestern US as a seasonably strong mid-level trough/closed low remains anchored off the Washington/Oregon coasts.

New England

Thunderstorms are expected to develop across portions of Quebec on Tuesday afternoon as a strong mid-level trough and attendant surface cold front move across the region. Ahead of this cold front, southwesterly surface winds will transport in rich boundary layer moisture, which will combine with diurnal heating to support MUCAPE in the 1500-2500 J/kg range. Strong vertical shear (on the order of 50-60 knots) will overspread the region during the afternoon and evening, which will support one or more clusters of severe thunderstorms moving from Quebec into and across portions of New England during the late afternoon, evening, and early morning hours. All severe hazards will be possible with any sustained thunderstorm.

One mitigating factor for a more significant severe weather event will be the timing of the storms. At this time, it appears thunderstorms will be moving across New England well after peak heating and into the overnight. Should the timing of storms be earlier than currently expected, greater coverage of thunderstorms may result and higher severe probabilities would be warranted.

### Portions of Western and Central Montana

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across the higher terrain of southwest Montana during the afternoon on Tuesday. Surface moisture will be better (surface dewpoints in the 50Fs) than in previous days, which should support greater afternoon buoyancy and in turn stronger thunderstorm updrafts. Strong south-southwesterly mid-level flow in between the trough to the west and ridge to the east will support thunderstorm organization and some severe potential as some of the storms move northeast off the higher terrain.

..Marsh.. 07/12/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, July 15

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120900 SPC AC 120900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

An expansive mid-level ridge centered over the north-central US will continue to retrograde during the early part of the forecast period, before becoming centered over the Rockies toward the end of the upcoming week. A seasonably strong mid-level trough will be positioned over northern Quebec, positioning strong northwesterly flow from the Upper Midwest southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and areas to the northeast. A combination of deterministic and ensemble forecast solutions, including AI emulators, show one or more short-wave troughs or jet streaks moving through this enhanced flow field.

The position of these mid-level features will help drive a surface front southward across the eastern US that will stretch from somewhere in the central/north-central US into the Mid-Atlantic. To the north of this boundary, a seasonably cool, dry airmass should be found. Along and south of this surface boundary, a very warm, moist, and unstable airmass will be found.

As the aforementioned short-wave troughs move through the enhanced mid-level flow, one or more rounds of thunderstorms/mesoscale convective systems are likely to develop and move east/southeast. Ensemble guidance continues to show a very unstable airmass (MUCAPE in excess of 2000-3000 J/kg) along and south of where the surface boundary resides, with strong vertical shear. The overall pattern would seem to suggest multiple rounds/days of severe potential, with prior days' convection likely modulating the where and intensity of subsequent days' convection.

Given these sensitivities to prior days' convection, there will likely be run-to-run variability within the deterministic guidance suite as we approach the latter half of next week. Thus, while confidence is high in severe potential during the Day 4-8 period (and perhaps beyond), highlighting specific locations and days of severe potential will prove challenging, with likely areas changing from model run-to-run.

### Friday/Day 6 – Mid-Atlantic Region

This evening's deterministic guidance suite (20260712 00 UTC), along with yesterday morning's deterministic guidance suite (20260711 12 UTC), is faster moving the surface boundary south than last night's guidance suite (20260711 00 UTC). However, the overall ensemble guidance continues to suggest severe potential across the region, owing to differences in the position of the surface boundary and the timing of mid-level vorticity maxima. Severe probabilities (15%) have been retained with this forecast in a nod to the ensemble guidance suite, but if the current trend of pushing the surface boundary farther south on Thursday (Day 5) continues, severe weather probabilities may need to be removed as the surface boundary will push south of the better deep-layer shear.

..Marsh.. 07/12/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Thursday, July 16

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120900 SPC AC 120900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

An expansive mid-level ridge centered over the north-central US will continue to retrograde during the early part of the forecast period, before becoming centered over the Rockies toward the end of the upcoming week. A seasonably strong mid-level trough will be positioned over northern Quebec, positioning strong northwesterly flow from the Upper Midwest southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and areas to the northeast. A combination of deterministic and ensemble forecast solutions, including AI emulators, show one or more short-wave troughs or jet streaks moving through this enhanced flow field.

The position of these mid-level features will help drive a surface front southward across the eastern US that will stretch from somewhere in the central/north-central US into the Mid-Atlantic. To the north of this boundary, a seasonably cool, dry airmass should be found. Along and south of this surface boundary, a very warm, moist, and unstable airmass will be found.

As the aforementioned short-wave troughs move through the enhanced mid-level flow, one or more rounds of thunderstorms/mesoscale convective systems are likely to develop and move east/southeast. Ensemble guidance continues to show a very unstable airmass (MUCAPE in excess of 2000-3000 J/kg) along and south of where the surface boundary resides, with strong vertical shear. The overall pattern would seem to suggest multiple rounds/days of severe potential, with prior days' convection likely modulating the where and intensity of subsequent days' convection.

Given these sensitivities to prior days' convection, there will likely be run-to-run variability within the deterministic guidance suite as we approach the latter half of next week. Thus, while confidence is high in severe potential during the Day 4-8 period (and perhaps beyond), highlighting specific locations and days of severe potential will prove challenging, with likely areas changing from model run-to-run.

### Friday/Day 6 – Mid-Atlantic Region

This evening's deterministic guidance suite (20260712 00 UTC), along with yesterday morning's deterministic guidance suite (20260711 12 UTC), is faster moving the surface boundary south than last night's guidance suite (20260711 00 UTC). However, the overall ensemble guidance continues to suggest severe potential across the region, owing to differences in the position of the surface boundary and the timing of mid-level vorticity maxima. Severe probabilities (15%) have been retained with this forecast in a nod to the ensemble guidance suite, but if the current trend of pushing the surface boundary farther south on Thursday (Day 5) continues, severe weather probabilities may need to be removed as the surface boundary will push south of the better deep-layer shear.

..Marsh.. 07/12/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Friday, July 17

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120900 SPC AC 120900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

An expansive mid-level ridge centered over the north-central US will continue to retrograde during the early part of the forecast period, before becoming centered over the Rockies toward the end of the upcoming week. A seasonably strong mid-level trough will be positioned over northern Quebec, positioning strong northwesterly flow from the Upper Midwest southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and areas to the northeast. A combination of deterministic and ensemble forecast solutions, including AI emulators, show one or more short-wave troughs or jet streaks moving through this enhanced flow field.

The position of these mid-level features will help drive a surface front southward across the eastern US that will stretch from somewhere in the central/north-central US into the Mid-Atlantic. To the north of this boundary, a seasonably cool, dry airmass should be found. Along and south of this surface boundary, a very warm, moist, and unstable airmass will be found.

As the aforementioned short-wave troughs move through the enhanced mid-level flow, one or more rounds of thunderstorms/mesoscale convective systems are likely to develop and move east/southeast. Ensemble guidance continues to show a very unstable airmass (MUCAPE in excess of 2000-3000 J/kg) along and south of where the surface boundary resides, with strong vertical shear. The overall pattern would seem to suggest multiple rounds/days of severe potential, with prior days' convection likely modulating the where and intensity of subsequent days' convection.

Given these sensitivities to prior days' convection, there will likely be run-to-run variability within the deterministic guidance suite as we approach the latter half of next week. Thus, while confidence is high in severe potential during the Day 4-8 period (and perhaps beyond), highlighting specific locations and days of severe potential will prove challenging, with likely areas changing from model run-to-run.

### Friday/Day 6 – Mid-Atlantic Region

This evening's deterministic guidance suite (20260712 00 UTC), along with yesterday morning's deterministic guidance suite (20260711 12 UTC), is faster moving the surface boundary south than last night's guidance suite (20260711 00 UTC). However, the overall ensemble guidance continues to suggest severe potential across the region, owing to differences in the position of the surface boundary and the timing of mid-level vorticity maxima. Severe probabilities (15%) have been retained with this forecast in a nod to the ensemble guidance suite, but if the current trend of pushing the surface boundary farther south on Thursday (Day 5) continues, severe weather probabilities may need to be removed as the surface boundary will push south of the better deep-layer shear.

..Marsh.. 07/12/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, July 18

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120900 SPC AC 120900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

An expansive mid-level ridge centered over the north-central US will continue to retrograde during the early part of the forecast period, before becoming centered over the Rockies toward the end of the upcoming week. A seasonably strong mid-level trough will be positioned over northern Quebec, positioning strong northwesterly flow from the Upper Midwest southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and areas to the northeast. A combination of deterministic and ensemble forecast solutions, including AI emulators, show one or more short-wave troughs or jet streaks moving through this enhanced flow field.

The position of these mid-level features will help drive a surface front southward across the eastern US that will stretch from somewhere in the central/north-central US into the Mid-Atlantic. To the north of this boundary, a seasonably cool, dry airmass should be found. Along and south of this surface boundary, a very warm, moist, and unstable airmass will be found.

As the aforementioned short-wave troughs move through the enhanced mid-level flow, one or more rounds of thunderstorms/mesoscale convective systems are likely to develop and move east/southeast. Ensemble guidance continues to show a very unstable airmass (MUCAPE in excess of 2000-3000 J/kg) along and south of where the surface boundary resides, with strong vertical shear. The overall pattern would seem to suggest multiple rounds/days of severe potential, with prior days' convection likely modulating the where and intensity of subsequent days' convection.

Given these sensitivities to prior days' convection, there will likely be run-to-run variability within the deterministic guidance suite as we approach the latter half of next week. Thus, while confidence is high in severe potential during the Day 4-8 period (and perhaps beyond), highlighting specific locations and days of severe potential will prove challenging, with likely areas changing from model run-to-run.

### Friday/Day 6 – Mid-Atlantic Region

This evening's deterministic guidance suite (20260712 00 UTC), along with yesterday morning's deterministic guidance suite (20260711 12 UTC), is faster moving the surface boundary south than last night's guidance suite (20260711 00 UTC). However, the overall ensemble guidance continues to suggest severe potential across the region, owing to differences in the position of the surface boundary and the timing of mid-level vorticity maxima. Severe probabilities (15%) have been retained with this forecast in a nod to the ensemble guidance suite, but if the current trend of pushing the surface boundary farther south on Thursday (Day 5) continues, severe weather probabilities may need to be removed as the surface boundary will push south of the better deep-layer shear.

..Marsh.. 07/12/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, July 19

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120900 SPC AC 120900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

An expansive mid-level ridge centered over the north-central US will continue to retrograde during the early part of the forecast period, before becoming centered over the Rockies toward the end of the upcoming week. A seasonably strong mid-level trough will be positioned over northern Quebec, positioning strong northwesterly flow from the Upper Midwest southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and areas to the northeast. A combination of deterministic and ensemble forecast solutions, including AI emulators, show one or more short-wave troughs or jet streaks moving through this enhanced flow field.

The position of these mid-level features will help drive a surface front southward across the eastern US that will stretch from somewhere in the central/north-central US into the Mid-Atlantic. To the north of this boundary, a seasonably cool, dry airmass should be found. Along and south of this surface boundary, a very warm, moist, and unstable airmass will be found.

As the aforementioned short-wave troughs move through the enhanced mid-level flow, one or more rounds of thunderstorms/mesoscale convective systems are likely to develop and move east/southeast. Ensemble guidance continues to show a very unstable airmass (MUCAPE in excess of 2000-3000 J/kg) along and south of where the surface boundary resides, with strong vertical shear. The overall pattern would seem to suggest multiple rounds/days of severe potential, with prior days' convection likely modulating the where and intensity of subsequent days' convection.

Given these sensitivities to prior days' convection, there will likely be run-to-run variability within the deterministic guidance suite as we approach the latter half of next week. Thus, while confidence is high in severe potential during the Day 4-8 period (and perhaps beyond), highlighting specific locations and days of severe potential will prove challenging, with likely areas changing from model run-to-run.

### Friday/Day 6 – Mid-Atlantic Region

This evening's deterministic guidance suite (20260712 00 UTC), along with yesterday morning's deterministic guidance suite (20260711 12 UTC), is faster moving the surface boundary south than last night's guidance suite (20260711 00 UTC). However, the overall ensemble guidance continues to suggest severe potential across the region, owing to differences in the position of the surface boundary and the timing of mid-level vorticity maxima. Severe probabilities (15%) have been retained with this forecast in a nod to the ensemble guidance suite, but if the current trend of pushing the surface boundary farther south on Thursday (Day 5) continues, severe weather probabilities may need to be removed as the surface boundary will push south of the better deep-layer shear.

..Marsh.. 07/12/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Sunday, July 12

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Monday, July 13

TORNADO: low

HAIL: low

WIND: 5%

Tuesday, July 14

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Wednesday, July 15

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Thursday, July 16

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, July 17

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Saturday, July 18

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Sunday, July 19

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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