Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Wednesday, August 26

Outlook Summary

Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast today across parts of the southern Great Lakes into the Midwest, central/southern High Plains, and the Ozarks into the Mid-South and Lower Mississippi Valley. Severe/damaging winds should be the main threat across these regions, though large hail is also possible, particularly across the central High Plains.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 261959

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Valid 262000Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST…CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS…AND OZARKS/MID SOUTH INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast today across parts of the southern Great Lakes into the Midwest, central/southern High Plains, and the Ozarks into the Mid-South and Lower Mississippi Valley. Severe/damaging winds should be the main threat across these regions, though large hail is also possible, particularly across the central High Plains.

20z Update

### Central Great Plains

Visible satellite imagery depicts an area of agitated cumulus developing in close proximity to a weak surface boundary across eastern Colorado. Recent HRRR/RRFS runs are split on the evolution of this convection, with the HRRR suggesting minimal thunderstorm development and the RRFS depicting the development of a southeastward-propagating cluster. This scenario remains uncertain; however, the 5% wind probabilities have been expanded southeastward to account for the potential for a cluster of thunderstorms to evolve from this region. See MCD 2139 for additional short-term information.

Mid-South and Lower Great Lakes

Severe probabilities were trimmed slightly across portions of northeastern IL, northwestern IN, and southwestern MI in the wake of ongoing convection and the passage of a surface cold front. Severe probabilities were also trimmed across portions of the Mid South where increased low-level static stability owing to outflow from prior convection casts uncertainty on additional convective development this afternoon/evening.

Elsewhere, the forecast remains largely on track with only minor changes made to the existing outlook. See the text below for additional information.

..Chalmers/Thornton.. 08/26/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026/

Mid-South/TN Valley

An MCS continues to push gradually southward/southeastward across western and middle TN. The downstream airmass is heating and destabilizing, but vertical shear remains weak and the overall system has not strengthened notably in the past hour. Destabilization across the region is strongest from the Mid-South into the Lower MS Valley, where dewpoints are largely in the mid 70s. Less low-level moisture is noted from middle TN into northern AL, but airmass destabilization is still anticipated amid modest heating. The general expectation is for the MCS to continue, but with new and/or stronger updrafts likely trending towards the western flank where the buoyancy is greatest. Even then, the lack of stronger vertical shear suggests an outflow-dominant mode with minimal organization. As such, sporadic damaging gusts are possible, particularly via updraft augmentation via storm interactions, but the current magnitude and orientation of the wind probability seems sufficient.

Arklatex across much of AR into the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley

A somewhat separate area of thunderstorm development is anticipated this afternoon west of what was discussed in the previous paragraph, although some interaction between these two regimes may occur over the Mid-South vicinity. Recent surface observations depict a surface low along the central TX/OK border (in the GYI/DUA vicinity). This low is forecast to progress gradually eastward into a moist and diurnally destabilized airmass from the Arklatex across much of AR and northern LA. A weak MCV, noted in visible satellite imagery, lags behind this surface low, and could augment ascent as it too moves eastward. Low-level convergence on a stalled frontal boundary that extends across central AR as well as along a front approaching northern AR this evening could act as additional mechanisms for thunderstorm initiation. All of these factors will likely result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the region.

Modest deep-layer shear should support some updraft organization, with multicell clusters likely the dominant mode. High total precipitable water values and large buoyancy will support robust downbursts capable of damaging wind gusts. Strong buoyancy could support occasional hail as well. Clustering may eventually result in several bowing segments this evening. As such, there is potential for at least isolated damaging winds to persist across parts of southern LA/MS.

Southern Great Lakes into the Midwest

Satellite imagery continues to show a well-defined shortwave trough moving across the Upper Great Lakes. Primary surface low associated with this system is occluded over northwest Ontario, but a secondary triple point low is moving across Upper MI. This system is forecast to move eastward today, with the attendant cold front progressing southeastward. Modest low-level moisture advection and heating ahead of this front will result in a corridor of moderate to strong buoyancy from central IL northeastward into southern Lower MI. Thunderstorm development is anticipated within this corridor this afternoon.

Low/mid-level winds will tend to remain fairly modest and veered, but 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear should foster some updraft organization. A mix of multicell clusters and marginal supercells should pose a threat for both hail and damaging winds, with the wind threat potentially becoming the primary risk with eastward extent into the Midwest as thunderstorms grow upscale. Veered low-level flow should keep the tornado potential low. The overall severe threat will likely diminish quickly this evening as convection outpaces the low-level moisture/instability, and nocturnal cooling stabilizes the boundary layer.

Central High Plains

Low levels across the central High Plains are currently characterized by dewpoints in the upper 50s and low 60s. Modest low-level upslope flow will help maintain this low-level moisture through the afternoon. This moisture combined with diurnal heating and steep mid-level lapse rates will result in airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy by the late afternoon. Additionally, southern periphery of the enhanced northwesterly flow extending from the northern Plains into the Mid MS Valley will be over the central High Plains, resulting in 25 to 35 kt of effective bulk shear. Late afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated within this environment, with some isolated supercells possible. Hail will be the primary risk initially, particularly across the CO Foothills. A trend towards clustering and more damaging wind potential is expected as this activity spreads east-southeastward through the evening.

Southern High Plains

Mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear should be somewhat weaker than areas farther north. Still, convection that develops across central into eastern NM may become loosely organized while posing an isolated threat for severe gusts given the presence of a very well-mixed boundary layer. This threat may continue into parts of the OK/TX Panhandles and west TX through the evening before eventually weakening.

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Outlook for Thursday, August 27

Outlook Summary

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Northeast on Thursday. Damaging wind, hail and a tornado or two may accompany these storms. Strong wind gusts and hail also may occur over parts of the central Plains, and the Northern Rockies vicinity.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 261713

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST

### SUMMARY

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Northeast on Thursday. Damaging wind, hail and a tornado or two may accompany these storms. Strong wind gusts and hail also may occur over parts of the central Plains, and the Northern Rockies vicinity.

Mid-Atlantic/Northeast

Upper troughing will persist over the eastern U.S., with the trough axis remaining roughly oriented from the Lower Great Lakes toward the central/southern Appalachians. This will result in modest southwesterly deep-layer flow across region, with somewhat strong vertical wind profiles expected across the Northeast (and decreasing with southward extent across central/southern Appalachians). A surface trough/weak front will extend from the Upper OH Valley southward toward northern GA Thursday morning, with this feature drifting eastward through early Friday. Southerly low-level flow east of the surface trough/boundary, will maintain a seasonally moist boundary layer (60s F dewpoints). This will support moderate destabilization across the region, with pockets of strong instability possible near/west of the I-95 corridor from northern VA into southern/central NY.

Vertically veering wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings, with around 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes suggesting organized storms structures and possible transient supercells. Damaging winds and occasional hail will be the main hazards with storms through Thursday evening. Low-level hodographs are somewhat small, but favorably curved, with 0-1 km SRH approaching 100 m2/s2 where backed low-level winds persist. Given the moist boundary layer and sufficient steep low-level lapse rates, a tornado or two also will be possible.

Vertical shear decreases with southward extent across the Appalachians. However, high PW and sufficient instability will exist that thunderstorm clusters could produce wet microbursts and sporadic wind damage of marginal hail as far south as northeast TN/northwest NC.

Central Plains

Northwesterly flow aloft will persist over the region on Thursday as the western upper ridging begins to shift east over the High Plains. This will likely suppress convective coverage somewhat. However, modest vorticity maxima rotating through northwesterly flow aloft and stronger heating across the modestly moist airmass, along with possible outflow from prior convection will support isolated thunderstorm development from the Black Hills southeast into Nebraska. Elongated hodographs and effective shear around 35+ kt amid steep midlevel lapse rates suggest large hail will be possible, with some potential for hail greater than 2 inch diameter. Overall storm coverage is expected to remain low, precluding higher severe probabilities.

Additional thunderstorms are possible with upslope flow along the CO foothills vicinity. Weaker vertical shear is expected compared to further north, but the environment will still support marginal hail with stronger updrafts.

Northern Rockies

Southwesterly flow aloft will increase as an upper shortwave trough moves eastward from the Pacific Northwest into MT and Alberta. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support modest destabilization by early afternoon and isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop over higher terrain. Strong heating will result in deep boundary layer mixing and steep low-level lapse rates. Given stronger flow aloft, isolated strong to severe wind gusts will be possible as convection develops east/northeast through early evening.

..Leitman.. 08/26/2026

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Outlook for Friday, August 28

Outlook Summary

Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across northern Georgia into the Carolinas and the northern/central Plains.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 261907

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS…AND FROM NORTH GA INTO SOUTHEAST VA

### SUMMARY

Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across northern Georgia into the Carolinas and the northern/central Plains.

Northern/Central Plains

An upper ridge, centered from the southern Rockies to the western Dakotas will persist on Friday. Some enhancement to west/northwesterly flow aloft is forecast, and a surface trough will develop across the northern and central High Plains. Southerly low-level flow to the east of the surface trough will transport 60s F dewpoints northward from the central into the northern Plains. As a low-level jet strengthens during the evening, thunderstorm development is possible. Capping may limit surface-based convection. However, forecast soundings indicate supercell wind profiles amid moderate instability and steep midlevel lapse rates. If storms develop, large hail will be possible.

North GA into southeast VA

Upper troughing will persist across the eastern U.S. on Friday. Surface high pressure will build over the Midwest while a surface trough extends from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the southern Appalachians. East of the trough, a very moist airmass will be in place. Daytime heating of this very moist/high PW airmass will support moderate destabilization, and thunderstorm clusters are expected to develop over higher terrain. Vertical shear will be weak, limiting organized convection. Nevertheless, wet microbursts could produce sporadic strong/locally damaging wind gusts.

..Leitman.. 08/26/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Saturday, August 29

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260842 SPC AC 260842

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Saturday - Northern Plains to Upper Midwest

A mid-level ridge will move slowly east across the Plains with slight suppression through the day. A lee trough will consolidate into a surface low across the northern Plains through the day Saturday. Ahead of this surface low, strong instability is forecast across South Dakota and vicinity. Despite the favorable environment across this region, primary forcing will be focused on the nose of the low-level jet across Iowa and into Wisconsin, well east of the greatest instability and near the Canadian border. Therefore, limited storm coverage precludes severe weather probabilities at this time, but given the favorable environment, it will need to be monitored closely.

D5/Sunday - North Dakota and Vicinity

A mid-level shortwave trough will move from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Plains Saturday/D4 and Sunday/D5. 00Z guidance has come into fairly consistent agreement with the location and amplitude of this trough across eastern Montana at 00Z Sunday evening. However, there is considerable disagreement with the degree of destabilization across North Dakota, where forcing will be greatest. The GFS dry bias across most of the Plains has severely lessened the instability. However, despite this challenge, it is apparent that most of the instability significantly southeast of the upper-level forcing. The GFS-Para seems to have a more realistic handle on low-level moisture/instability magnitude but it also shows a significant disconnect between where this instability is located and the deeper forcing.

The deterministic ECMWF forecast shows a potentially significant severe weather event across North Dakota with strong instability and shear ahead of a robust convective QPF signal. This is supported by the AI-ECMWF which shows a similar evolution. However, the EC-ensemble mean of instability shows at least some trend toward the GEFS with primary instability southeast of the best forcing.

It is also worth noting that the wave is forecast to eject across North Dakota relatively late (~06Z) which may be a somewhat limiting factor to a greater threat. This potential timing disconnect, combined with some hint of limited overlap between the greatest instability and the primary upper forcing, cast enough uncertainty to preclude severe weather probabilities at this time. However, it is worth noting that if a solution similar to the ECMWF materializes, a significant severe weather event is possible.

D6 and Beyond

By early next week, the primary mid-level ridge appears to center around the southern Appalachians with broad southwesterly flow from the Southwest to the Great Lakes. Within this area of southwesterly flow, multiple embedded mid-level shortwave troughs are forecast. Predictability of these smaller scale features is relatively low at this range, but some continued severe weather threat will likely persist around the periphery of the ridge from the Plains to the Great Lakes and potentially into the Northeast.

..Bentley.. 08/26/2026

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Outlook for Sunday, August 30

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260842 SPC AC 260842

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Saturday - Northern Plains to Upper Midwest

A mid-level ridge will move slowly east across the Plains with slight suppression through the day. A lee trough will consolidate into a surface low across the northern Plains through the day Saturday. Ahead of this surface low, strong instability is forecast across South Dakota and vicinity. Despite the favorable environment across this region, primary forcing will be focused on the nose of the low-level jet across Iowa and into Wisconsin, well east of the greatest instability and near the Canadian border. Therefore, limited storm coverage precludes severe weather probabilities at this time, but given the favorable environment, it will need to be monitored closely.

D5/Sunday - North Dakota and Vicinity

A mid-level shortwave trough will move from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Plains Saturday/D4 and Sunday/D5. 00Z guidance has come into fairly consistent agreement with the location and amplitude of this trough across eastern Montana at 00Z Sunday evening. However, there is considerable disagreement with the degree of destabilization across North Dakota, where forcing will be greatest. The GFS dry bias across most of the Plains has severely lessened the instability. However, despite this challenge, it is apparent that most of the instability significantly southeast of the upper-level forcing. The GFS-Para seems to have a more realistic handle on low-level moisture/instability magnitude but it also shows a significant disconnect between where this instability is located and the deeper forcing.

The deterministic ECMWF forecast shows a potentially significant severe weather event across North Dakota with strong instability and shear ahead of a robust convective QPF signal. This is supported by the AI-ECMWF which shows a similar evolution. However, the EC-ensemble mean of instability shows at least some trend toward the GEFS with primary instability southeast of the best forcing.

It is also worth noting that the wave is forecast to eject across North Dakota relatively late (~06Z) which may be a somewhat limiting factor to a greater threat. This potential timing disconnect, combined with some hint of limited overlap between the greatest instability and the primary upper forcing, cast enough uncertainty to preclude severe weather probabilities at this time. However, it is worth noting that if a solution similar to the ECMWF materializes, a significant severe weather event is possible.

D6 and Beyond

By early next week, the primary mid-level ridge appears to center around the southern Appalachians with broad southwesterly flow from the Southwest to the Great Lakes. Within this area of southwesterly flow, multiple embedded mid-level shortwave troughs are forecast. Predictability of these smaller scale features is relatively low at this range, but some continued severe weather threat will likely persist around the periphery of the ridge from the Plains to the Great Lakes and potentially into the Northeast.

..Bentley.. 08/26/2026

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Outlook for Monday, August 31

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260842 SPC AC 260842

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Saturday - Northern Plains to Upper Midwest

A mid-level ridge will move slowly east across the Plains with slight suppression through the day. A lee trough will consolidate into a surface low across the northern Plains through the day Saturday. Ahead of this surface low, strong instability is forecast across South Dakota and vicinity. Despite the favorable environment across this region, primary forcing will be focused on the nose of the low-level jet across Iowa and into Wisconsin, well east of the greatest instability and near the Canadian border. Therefore, limited storm coverage precludes severe weather probabilities at this time, but given the favorable environment, it will need to be monitored closely.

D5/Sunday - North Dakota and Vicinity

A mid-level shortwave trough will move from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Plains Saturday/D4 and Sunday/D5. 00Z guidance has come into fairly consistent agreement with the location and amplitude of this trough across eastern Montana at 00Z Sunday evening. However, there is considerable disagreement with the degree of destabilization across North Dakota, where forcing will be greatest. The GFS dry bias across most of the Plains has severely lessened the instability. However, despite this challenge, it is apparent that most of the instability significantly southeast of the upper-level forcing. The GFS-Para seems to have a more realistic handle on low-level moisture/instability magnitude but it also shows a significant disconnect between where this instability is located and the deeper forcing.

The deterministic ECMWF forecast shows a potentially significant severe weather event across North Dakota with strong instability and shear ahead of a robust convective QPF signal. This is supported by the AI-ECMWF which shows a similar evolution. However, the EC-ensemble mean of instability shows at least some trend toward the GEFS with primary instability southeast of the best forcing.

It is also worth noting that the wave is forecast to eject across North Dakota relatively late (~06Z) which may be a somewhat limiting factor to a greater threat. This potential timing disconnect, combined with some hint of limited overlap between the greatest instability and the primary upper forcing, cast enough uncertainty to preclude severe weather probabilities at this time. However, it is worth noting that if a solution similar to the ECMWF materializes, a significant severe weather event is possible.

D6 and Beyond

By early next week, the primary mid-level ridge appears to center around the southern Appalachians with broad southwesterly flow from the Southwest to the Great Lakes. Within this area of southwesterly flow, multiple embedded mid-level shortwave troughs are forecast. Predictability of these smaller scale features is relatively low at this range, but some continued severe weather threat will likely persist around the periphery of the ridge from the Plains to the Great Lakes and potentially into the Northeast.

..Bentley.. 08/26/2026

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Outlook for Tuesday, September 1

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260842 SPC AC 260842

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Saturday - Northern Plains to Upper Midwest

A mid-level ridge will move slowly east across the Plains with slight suppression through the day. A lee trough will consolidate into a surface low across the northern Plains through the day Saturday. Ahead of this surface low, strong instability is forecast across South Dakota and vicinity. Despite the favorable environment across this region, primary forcing will be focused on the nose of the low-level jet across Iowa and into Wisconsin, well east of the greatest instability and near the Canadian border. Therefore, limited storm coverage precludes severe weather probabilities at this time, but given the favorable environment, it will need to be monitored closely.

D5/Sunday - North Dakota and Vicinity

A mid-level shortwave trough will move from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Plains Saturday/D4 and Sunday/D5. 00Z guidance has come into fairly consistent agreement with the location and amplitude of this trough across eastern Montana at 00Z Sunday evening. However, there is considerable disagreement with the degree of destabilization across North Dakota, where forcing will be greatest. The GFS dry bias across most of the Plains has severely lessened the instability. However, despite this challenge, it is apparent that most of the instability significantly southeast of the upper-level forcing. The GFS-Para seems to have a more realistic handle on low-level moisture/instability magnitude but it also shows a significant disconnect between where this instability is located and the deeper forcing.

The deterministic ECMWF forecast shows a potentially significant severe weather event across North Dakota with strong instability and shear ahead of a robust convective QPF signal. This is supported by the AI-ECMWF which shows a similar evolution. However, the EC-ensemble mean of instability shows at least some trend toward the GEFS with primary instability southeast of the best forcing.

It is also worth noting that the wave is forecast to eject across North Dakota relatively late (~06Z) which may be a somewhat limiting factor to a greater threat. This potential timing disconnect, combined with some hint of limited overlap between the greatest instability and the primary upper forcing, cast enough uncertainty to preclude severe weather probabilities at this time. However, it is worth noting that if a solution similar to the ECMWF materializes, a significant severe weather event is possible.

D6 and Beyond

By early next week, the primary mid-level ridge appears to center around the southern Appalachians with broad southwesterly flow from the Southwest to the Great Lakes. Within this area of southwesterly flow, multiple embedded mid-level shortwave troughs are forecast. Predictability of these smaller scale features is relatively low at this range, but some continued severe weather threat will likely persist around the periphery of the ridge from the Plains to the Great Lakes and potentially into the Northeast.

..Bentley.. 08/26/2026

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Outlook for Wednesday, September 2

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260842 SPC AC 260842

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Saturday - Northern Plains to Upper Midwest

A mid-level ridge will move slowly east across the Plains with slight suppression through the day. A lee trough will consolidate into a surface low across the northern Plains through the day Saturday. Ahead of this surface low, strong instability is forecast across South Dakota and vicinity. Despite the favorable environment across this region, primary forcing will be focused on the nose of the low-level jet across Iowa and into Wisconsin, well east of the greatest instability and near the Canadian border. Therefore, limited storm coverage precludes severe weather probabilities at this time, but given the favorable environment, it will need to be monitored closely.

D5/Sunday - North Dakota and Vicinity

A mid-level shortwave trough will move from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Plains Saturday/D4 and Sunday/D5. 00Z guidance has come into fairly consistent agreement with the location and amplitude of this trough across eastern Montana at 00Z Sunday evening. However, there is considerable disagreement with the degree of destabilization across North Dakota, where forcing will be greatest. The GFS dry bias across most of the Plains has severely lessened the instability. However, despite this challenge, it is apparent that most of the instability significantly southeast of the upper-level forcing. The GFS-Para seems to have a more realistic handle on low-level moisture/instability magnitude but it also shows a significant disconnect between where this instability is located and the deeper forcing.

The deterministic ECMWF forecast shows a potentially significant severe weather event across North Dakota with strong instability and shear ahead of a robust convective QPF signal. This is supported by the AI-ECMWF which shows a similar evolution. However, the EC-ensemble mean of instability shows at least some trend toward the GEFS with primary instability southeast of the best forcing.

It is also worth noting that the wave is forecast to eject across North Dakota relatively late (~06Z) which may be a somewhat limiting factor to a greater threat. This potential timing disconnect, combined with some hint of limited overlap between the greatest instability and the primary upper forcing, cast enough uncertainty to preclude severe weather probabilities at this time. However, it is worth noting that if a solution similar to the ECMWF materializes, a significant severe weather event is possible.

D6 and Beyond

By early next week, the primary mid-level ridge appears to center around the southern Appalachians with broad southwesterly flow from the Southwest to the Great Lakes. Within this area of southwesterly flow, multiple embedded mid-level shortwave troughs are forecast. Predictability of these smaller scale features is relatively low at this range, but some continued severe weather threat will likely persist around the periphery of the ridge from the Plains to the Great Lakes and potentially into the Northeast.

..Bentley.. 08/26/2026

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National Risk Overview

Wednesday, August 26

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Thursday, August 27

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 15%

Friday, August 28

ANY SEVERE: 5%

Saturday, August 29

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Sunday, August 30

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Monday, August 31

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Tuesday, September 1

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Wednesday, September 2

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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