Severe Weather Outlook
Hayley here - Do you want to see severe weather in your calendar?
* it's like an add-on for your digital calendar NOT a paper calendar
National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, May 7
Outlook Summary
Widely scattered severe storms capable of damaging winds and a couple tornadoes are possible Thursday across southeast Alabama, and portions of south Georgia and north Florida, including the Panhandle. Isolated strong to severe storms are also possible in parts of the Carolinas, as well as the lower Rio Grande Valley and deep South Texas.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 070532
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH GEORGIA AND NORTH FLORIDA…INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE
### SUMMARY
Widely scattered severe storms capable of damaging winds and a couple tornadoes are possible Thursday across southeast Alabama, and portions of south Georgia and north Florida, including the Panhandle. Isolated strong to severe storms are also possible in parts of the Carolinas, as well as the lower Rio Grande Valley and deep South Texas.
Synopsis
Separate vorticity maxima over the northern Plains and Raton Mesa vicinity this evening are forecast to phase while progressing through the southern periphery of broader-scale troughing present across eastern Canada into the OH Valley and Northeast. That pattern evolution will contribute to more substantial height falls from the mid-Atlantic into the southern Appalachians and Southeast on Thursday. Strong, mid/upper-level flow will be maintained within the base of the deepening trough from the lower-MS Valley into the Southeast and mid-Atlantic region.
At the surface, a cold front is expected to initially stretch from the Tidewater region to diffuse low pressure over the western Carolinas into northeast GA, and then southwest to the central Gulf Coast. That boundary will slowly advance southeast through the day, with that feature along with any convective outflow boundaries serving as the foci for strong to severe storm development.
Carolinas to northeast Gulf Coast
Convection-allowing model guidance suggests that a west-to-east-oriented, pre-frontal band of thunderstorms will be ongoing at the start of the forecast period (07/12z) across southern AL and the FL Panhandle into southern GA, rooted within a warm-advection regime along a 40-50 kt low-level jet. The low-level jet will aid in the northeastward advection of an increasingly moist boundary layer from off the northeast Gulf with dewpoints increasing into the low 70s within the inflow region of the early-day storms. That moisture will largely contribute to MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, despite poor mid-level lapse rates.
The presence of the low-level jet will support initially strong near-ground shear (i.e., effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2) within the instability axis preceding the storms. However, that feature is forecast to gradually weaken while migrating east through the morning, with seemingly the best tornado potential existing during the first few hours of the forecast period. Otherwise, damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazard as storms progress southeast through the level 2/Slight Risk area.
Farther to the northeast across the NC/SC Piedmont and Coastal Plain, poor lapse rates are expected to limit instability to generally less than 500 j/kg. However, deep-layer wind fields will be strong, suggesting the potential for locally strong wind gusts with any deeper convective elements forming along and ahead of the cold front from late morning into afternoon.
### Lower Rio Grande Valley/deep South Texas
There is a model signal for at least isolated thunderstorm development at the start of the forecast period (07/12z) with the location of the storms varying from model to model. RAP-based soundings suggest that the storms would be slightly elevated above a stable, near-surface layer within a moderately unstable environment with MUCAPE up to 1000-1500 J/kg. While mid-level lapse rates aren't expected to be particularly steep, the presence of 50-60+ kt effective bulk shear magnitudes would support the potential for supercell structures capable of isolated occurrences of large hail and locally damaging wind gusts. The severe-weather threat is expect to remain confined to the morning hours.
..Mead/Lyons.. 05/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Friday, May 8
Outlook Summary
A few severe storms are possible on Friday from parts of Oklahoma into Missouri. Scattered storms are also likely over much of Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 070518
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KS…CENTRAL/EASTERN OK…NORTHWEST AR…AND SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL MO
### SUMMARY
A few severe storms are possible on Friday from parts of Oklahoma into Missouri. Scattered storms are also likely over much of Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley.
Synopsis
Northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Plains as a shortwave upper trough develops east across the Mid-MS, OH and TN Valleys through early Saturday. A surface front will extend along the TX coast northeastward through the northern Gulf. This boundary will lift northward through the period, allowing for moisture return across TX, the Lower MS Valley and parts of the Southeast. Meanwhile, a surface cold front is forecast to develop southeast across parts of the Plains and Midwest, becoming oriented from the OH Valley to southern AR and north TX by Saturday morning.
KS/OK/MO/AR
Moisture return will be limited ahead of the aforementioned cold front, with surface dewpoints generally expected to be in the 50s. Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates are noted in forecast soundings, aided by cool temperatures aloft. This will support MLCAPE to around 1000-1500 J/kg within a narrow corridor ahead of the front. Effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt will support organized updrafts. Given the cool temperatures aloft/steep midlevel lapse rates and elongated/straight forecast hodographs, isolated large hail is possible. Furthermore, where there is stronger heating, deep boundary layer mixing and steepening low-level lapse rates will be possible, and isolated strong/severe wind gusts may occur. Instability will diminish with time and eastward extent into the evening as storms move across parts of MO/AR.
TX to the Lower MS Valley
Model guidance remains somewhat uncertain with regards to severe potential across TX. Early day thunderstorms, showers, and cloudiness are possible as Gulf moisture returns northward across portions of the state. Capping and initially weak forcing and modest shear will likely preclude severe potential through much of the day. Isolated thunderstorms will likely also develop along the retreating warm front across the Lower MS Valley vicinity, but severe storms are not expected.
It is possible that by evening into the nighttime hours some severe potential could develop across portions of TX as the upper shortwave trough overspreads the region, resulting in increasing forcing within the warm advection regime. Some storms developing over the higher terrain in Mexico could approach the middle/lower Rio Grande in TX, and if they can be maintained, pose a risk for large hail. However, confidence is too low to include severe probabilities at this time.
..Leitman.. 05/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Saturday, May 9
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, May 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, May 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, May 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, May 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060742 SPC AC 060742
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper shortwave trough will be located over TX on Day 4/Saturday. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough will migrate from the central Rockies into the into the central Plains on Saturday. These features will result in modestly increasing mid/upper level northwesterly flow across the Plains. At the surface, modest southerly low-level flow will continue to transport Gulf moisture northward across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley. Weak surface cyclogenesis is possible across the central/southern Plains and a dryline will extend across western KS/OK/TX. This could be a focus for thunderstorm development on Saturday. However, how far north quality moisture return will occur (especially before Saturday night/early Sunday) is uncertain. Additionally, deep-layer flow is not forecast to be very strong. While some strong to severe thunderstorms could develop, confidence is too low to include severe probabilities.
By Day 5/Sunday, a large scale upper trough over the Plains will shift east, extending from the lower Great Lakes to the eastern Gulf by Monday morning. A surface low will move from the Midwest to the eastern U.S. while a trailing cold front develops southeast across the southern Plains and the Mid/Lower MS and OH Valleys. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place across the south-central to Southeast U.S. However, it is uncertain how much destabilization will occur as widespread precipitation and cloud cover are possible. Some strong to severe thunderstorm potential could develop, but predictability is low at this time.
Heading into Days 6-8/Mon-Wed, mean troughing is likely to continue across the East with broad northwesterly flow across the Plains. The cold frontal passage on Sunday will likely suppress Gulf moisture on Monday. Another cold front is forecast to move across portions of the Plains and Midwest on Tuesday and any severe potential will depend on timing and quality of moisture return into the central U.S., which is uncertain. Overall, predictability is low late in the forecast period.
..Leitman.. 05/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, May 10
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, May 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, May 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, May 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, May 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060742 SPC AC 060742
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper shortwave trough will be located over TX on Day 4/Saturday. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough will migrate from the central Rockies into the into the central Plains on Saturday. These features will result in modestly increasing mid/upper level northwesterly flow across the Plains. At the surface, modest southerly low-level flow will continue to transport Gulf moisture northward across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley. Weak surface cyclogenesis is possible across the central/southern Plains and a dryline will extend across western KS/OK/TX. This could be a focus for thunderstorm development on Saturday. However, how far north quality moisture return will occur (especially before Saturday night/early Sunday) is uncertain. Additionally, deep-layer flow is not forecast to be very strong. While some strong to severe thunderstorms could develop, confidence is too low to include severe probabilities.
By Day 5/Sunday, a large scale upper trough over the Plains will shift east, extending from the lower Great Lakes to the eastern Gulf by Monday morning. A surface low will move from the Midwest to the eastern U.S. while a trailing cold front develops southeast across the southern Plains and the Mid/Lower MS and OH Valleys. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place across the south-central to Southeast U.S. However, it is uncertain how much destabilization will occur as widespread precipitation and cloud cover are possible. Some strong to severe thunderstorm potential could develop, but predictability is low at this time.
Heading into Days 6-8/Mon-Wed, mean troughing is likely to continue across the East with broad northwesterly flow across the Plains. The cold frontal passage on Sunday will likely suppress Gulf moisture on Monday. Another cold front is forecast to move across portions of the Plains and Midwest on Tuesday and any severe potential will depend on timing and quality of moisture return into the central U.S., which is uncertain. Overall, predictability is low late in the forecast period.
..Leitman.. 05/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, May 11
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, May 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, May 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, May 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, May 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060742 SPC AC 060742
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper shortwave trough will be located over TX on Day 4/Saturday. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough will migrate from the central Rockies into the into the central Plains on Saturday. These features will result in modestly increasing mid/upper level northwesterly flow across the Plains. At the surface, modest southerly low-level flow will continue to transport Gulf moisture northward across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley. Weak surface cyclogenesis is possible across the central/southern Plains and a dryline will extend across western KS/OK/TX. This could be a focus for thunderstorm development on Saturday. However, how far north quality moisture return will occur (especially before Saturday night/early Sunday) is uncertain. Additionally, deep-layer flow is not forecast to be very strong. While some strong to severe thunderstorms could develop, confidence is too low to include severe probabilities.
By Day 5/Sunday, a large scale upper trough over the Plains will shift east, extending from the lower Great Lakes to the eastern Gulf by Monday morning. A surface low will move from the Midwest to the eastern U.S. while a trailing cold front develops southeast across the southern Plains and the Mid/Lower MS and OH Valleys. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place across the south-central to Southeast U.S. However, it is uncertain how much destabilization will occur as widespread precipitation and cloud cover are possible. Some strong to severe thunderstorm potential could develop, but predictability is low at this time.
Heading into Days 6-8/Mon-Wed, mean troughing is likely to continue across the East with broad northwesterly flow across the Plains. The cold frontal passage on Sunday will likely suppress Gulf moisture on Monday. Another cold front is forecast to move across portions of the Plains and Midwest on Tuesday and any severe potential will depend on timing and quality of moisture return into the central U.S., which is uncertain. Overall, predictability is low late in the forecast period.
..Leitman.. 05/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, May 12
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, May 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, May 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, May 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, May 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060742 SPC AC 060742
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper shortwave trough will be located over TX on Day 4/Saturday. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough will migrate from the central Rockies into the into the central Plains on Saturday. These features will result in modestly increasing mid/upper level northwesterly flow across the Plains. At the surface, modest southerly low-level flow will continue to transport Gulf moisture northward across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley. Weak surface cyclogenesis is possible across the central/southern Plains and a dryline will extend across western KS/OK/TX. This could be a focus for thunderstorm development on Saturday. However, how far north quality moisture return will occur (especially before Saturday night/early Sunday) is uncertain. Additionally, deep-layer flow is not forecast to be very strong. While some strong to severe thunderstorms could develop, confidence is too low to include severe probabilities.
By Day 5/Sunday, a large scale upper trough over the Plains will shift east, extending from the lower Great Lakes to the eastern Gulf by Monday morning. A surface low will move from the Midwest to the eastern U.S. while a trailing cold front develops southeast across the southern Plains and the Mid/Lower MS and OH Valleys. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place across the south-central to Southeast U.S. However, it is uncertain how much destabilization will occur as widespread precipitation and cloud cover are possible. Some strong to severe thunderstorm potential could develop, but predictability is low at this time.
Heading into Days 6-8/Mon-Wed, mean troughing is likely to continue across the East with broad northwesterly flow across the Plains. The cold frontal passage on Sunday will likely suppress Gulf moisture on Monday. Another cold front is forecast to move across portions of the Plains and Midwest on Tuesday and any severe potential will depend on timing and quality of moisture return into the central U.S., which is uncertain. Overall, predictability is low late in the forecast period.
..Leitman.. 05/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, May 13
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, May 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, May 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, May 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, May 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060742 SPC AC 060742
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper shortwave trough will be located over TX on Day 4/Saturday. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough will migrate from the central Rockies into the into the central Plains on Saturday. These features will result in modestly increasing mid/upper level northwesterly flow across the Plains. At the surface, modest southerly low-level flow will continue to transport Gulf moisture northward across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley. Weak surface cyclogenesis is possible across the central/southern Plains and a dryline will extend across western KS/OK/TX. This could be a focus for thunderstorm development on Saturday. However, how far north quality moisture return will occur (especially before Saturday night/early Sunday) is uncertain. Additionally, deep-layer flow is not forecast to be very strong. While some strong to severe thunderstorms could develop, confidence is too low to include severe probabilities.
By Day 5/Sunday, a large scale upper trough over the Plains will shift east, extending from the lower Great Lakes to the eastern Gulf by Monday morning. A surface low will move from the Midwest to the eastern U.S. while a trailing cold front develops southeast across the southern Plains and the Mid/Lower MS and OH Valleys. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place across the south-central to Southeast U.S. However, it is uncertain how much destabilization will occur as widespread precipitation and cloud cover are possible. Some strong to severe thunderstorm potential could develop, but predictability is low at this time.
Heading into Days 6-8/Mon-Wed, mean troughing is likely to continue across the East with broad northwesterly flow across the Plains. The cold frontal passage on Sunday will likely suppress Gulf moisture on Monday. Another cold front is forecast to move across portions of the Plains and Midwest on Tuesday and any severe potential will depend on timing and quality of moisture return into the central U.S., which is uncertain. Overall, predictability is low late in the forecast period.
..Leitman.. 05/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, May 7
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Friday, May 8
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Saturday, May 9
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, May 10
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, May 11
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, May 12
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, May 13
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Your Severe Outlook
Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.
Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.
Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.
About Severe Weather Outlook . com
SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.
- tornado hq - live severe weather warnings
- cyclocane - hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones
- tornado solitaire - play cards while you monitor the US severe weather threat
- tertremo - live view of earthquakes around the world
- earthquake solitaire - get live earthquake updates as you play your favorite card game