Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, March 18
Outlook Summary
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible today across far south Florida.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 181947
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026
Valid 182000Z - 191200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible today across far south Florida.
Synopsis
The previous forecast remains on track with no adjustments required. Latest GOES imagery shows shallow convection developing immediately north of the current thunder line and south of Lake Okeechobee. While a lightning flash or two is possible with this activity, the lack of vertical development/limited cloud phase change (per Day Cloud Phase imagery) limits confidence in lightning potential. Latest guidance continues to suggest the greatest lightning threat will remain along the southeast FL coast through evening.
..Moore.. 03/18/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1044 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026/
Synopsis
A substantial upper high and attendant ridge is apparent in morning water vapor imagery over the western U.S. Further east, a stalled front is noted across the Bahamas and Florida Straits. Surface high pressure in the wake of the frontal boundary across the Southeast will maintain offshore trajectories and a dearth of boundary layer moisture. This will preclude thunderstorm activity across most of the CONUS.
Some lingering low-level moisture and weak elevated instability may support a couple of thunderstorms over far south FL and portions of the Keys today, though most activity will remain offshore.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Thursday, March 19
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 181715
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.
Synopsis
Little change to the large-scale pattern is expected on Thursday, with an upper ridge remaining in place over the western CONUS, and a deep upper trough over the East. A general dearth of moisture and instability will continue to limit thunderstorm potential over most of the CONUS.
Near and offshore of the southeast FL Peninsula, modest moisture and instability may support weak convection as a midlevel shortwave moves through the large-scale trough. This convection may pose a low (around 10 percent) thunderstorm threat, mainly during the latter half of the forecast period.
..Dean.. 03/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Friday, March 20
Outlook Summary
A low chance of a few thunderstorms may develop on Friday near the Upper Ohio Valley and vicinity, and also near the southeast Florida coast.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 181855
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
A low chance of a few thunderstorms may develop on Friday near the Upper Ohio Valley and vicinity, and also near the southeast Florida coast.
Synopsis
An expansive upper ridge will remain in place over most of the western CONUS on Friday. A downstream large-scale upper trough will persist over the East. Within the large-scale trough, one shortwave will move offshore of Florida early in the period, while an upstream shortwave moves across the Great Lakes. A surface low will accompany the Great Lakes shortwave trough as it moves southeastward, as a trailing cold front moves through the Ohio Valley.
A low probability (around 10 percent) thunderstorm threat may continue from late D2/Thursday into early D3/Friday near the southeast FL coast. Farther north, modest low-level moistening (with dewpoints increasing to near/above 50 F) may support isolated thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening near the Upper Ohio Valley, in the vicinity of the advancing cold front. Weak instability is currently expected to limit organized severe-thunderstorm potential.
..Dean.. 03/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Saturday, March 21
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, March 21 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, March 22 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, March 23 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, March 24 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, March 25 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180717 SPC AC 180717
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper ridge is forecast to break down across the Southwest late Saturday/D4 into Sunday/D5, with a weak wave embedded in the northwesterly flow regime aloft. During the same time, a stronger but low-amplitude feature will move rapidly east/southeast along the Canadian border, across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast.
In association with the northern/Great Lakes disturbance, a cold front is forecast to push south into the Plains on Sunday/D5, extending into the OH Valley by late in the day. This front will interact with marginal moisture return across the Mid MS/OH Valleys, and continue into the Southeast on Monday/D6. This front is forecast to be roughly parallel to the upper flow, and would likely undercut thunderstorms that develop along it. MUCAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg seems reasonable, which will support marginal severe at best.
For the latter days of the period, the forecast becomes less predictable, however, models on a run to run basis appear to be trending toward higher heights/possible ridging over the Southwest, with little to no threat of severe storms.
..Jewell.. 03/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, March 22
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, March 21 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, March 22 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, March 23 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, March 24 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, March 25 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180717 SPC AC 180717
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper ridge is forecast to break down across the Southwest late Saturday/D4 into Sunday/D5, with a weak wave embedded in the northwesterly flow regime aloft. During the same time, a stronger but low-amplitude feature will move rapidly east/southeast along the Canadian border, across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast.
In association with the northern/Great Lakes disturbance, a cold front is forecast to push south into the Plains on Sunday/D5, extending into the OH Valley by late in the day. This front will interact with marginal moisture return across the Mid MS/OH Valleys, and continue into the Southeast on Monday/D6. This front is forecast to be roughly parallel to the upper flow, and would likely undercut thunderstorms that develop along it. MUCAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg seems reasonable, which will support marginal severe at best.
For the latter days of the period, the forecast becomes less predictable, however, models on a run to run basis appear to be trending toward higher heights/possible ridging over the Southwest, with little to no threat of severe storms.
..Jewell.. 03/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, March 23
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, March 21 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, March 22 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, March 23 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, March 24 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, March 25 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180717 SPC AC 180717
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper ridge is forecast to break down across the Southwest late Saturday/D4 into Sunday/D5, with a weak wave embedded in the northwesterly flow regime aloft. During the same time, a stronger but low-amplitude feature will move rapidly east/southeast along the Canadian border, across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast.
In association with the northern/Great Lakes disturbance, a cold front is forecast to push south into the Plains on Sunday/D5, extending into the OH Valley by late in the day. This front will interact with marginal moisture return across the Mid MS/OH Valleys, and continue into the Southeast on Monday/D6. This front is forecast to be roughly parallel to the upper flow, and would likely undercut thunderstorms that develop along it. MUCAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg seems reasonable, which will support marginal severe at best.
For the latter days of the period, the forecast becomes less predictable, however, models on a run to run basis appear to be trending toward higher heights/possible ridging over the Southwest, with little to no threat of severe storms.
..Jewell.. 03/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, March 24
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, March 21 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, March 22 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, March 23 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, March 24 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, March 25 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180717 SPC AC 180717
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper ridge is forecast to break down across the Southwest late Saturday/D4 into Sunday/D5, with a weak wave embedded in the northwesterly flow regime aloft. During the same time, a stronger but low-amplitude feature will move rapidly east/southeast along the Canadian border, across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast.
In association with the northern/Great Lakes disturbance, a cold front is forecast to push south into the Plains on Sunday/D5, extending into the OH Valley by late in the day. This front will interact with marginal moisture return across the Mid MS/OH Valleys, and continue into the Southeast on Monday/D6. This front is forecast to be roughly parallel to the upper flow, and would likely undercut thunderstorms that develop along it. MUCAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg seems reasonable, which will support marginal severe at best.
For the latter days of the period, the forecast becomes less predictable, however, models on a run to run basis appear to be trending toward higher heights/possible ridging over the Southwest, with little to no threat of severe storms.
..Jewell.. 03/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, March 25
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, March 21 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, March 22 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, March 23 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, March 24 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, March 25 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180717 SPC AC 180717
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper ridge is forecast to break down across the Southwest late Saturday/D4 into Sunday/D5, with a weak wave embedded in the northwesterly flow regime aloft. During the same time, a stronger but low-amplitude feature will move rapidly east/southeast along the Canadian border, across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast.
In association with the northern/Great Lakes disturbance, a cold front is forecast to push south into the Plains on Sunday/D5, extending into the OH Valley by late in the day. This front will interact with marginal moisture return across the Mid MS/OH Valleys, and continue into the Southeast on Monday/D6. This front is forecast to be roughly parallel to the upper flow, and would likely undercut thunderstorms that develop along it. MUCAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg seems reasonable, which will support marginal severe at best.
For the latter days of the period, the forecast becomes less predictable, however, models on a run to run basis appear to be trending toward higher heights/possible ridging over the Southwest, with little to no threat of severe storms.
..Jewell.. 03/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, March 18
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Thursday, March 19
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Friday, March 20
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Saturday, March 21
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, March 22
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, March 23
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, March 24
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, March 25
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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