Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, November 15
Outlook Summary
A strong thunderstorm or two may affect the middle Texas coast this afternoon and evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 151959
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Sun Nov 15 2026
Valid 152000Z - 161200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST
### SUMMARY
A strong thunderstorm or two may affect the middle Texas coast this afternoon and evening.
20Z Update
The only change with this update was trimming parts of the General Thunderstorm area in central/south TX. Any risk of strong thunderstorms will remain confined to the middle TX coastal areas, where upper 60s dewpoints along/south of the coastal front are contributing to weak surface-based buoyancy. Any isolated storms that ingest near-surface-based parcels could pose a risk for locally damaging gusts and possibly a brief tornado this afternoon and evening. Overall, the severe risk is expected to remain offshore.
..Weinman.. 11/15/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1007 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026/
Middle Texas Gulf Coast
Overall, the risk of severe storms appears to have diminished for later today. Scattered intense thunderstorms have been occurring offshore over the warm shelf waters, but that activity is not expected to build westward and inland. Other showers and thunderstorms associated with an approaching cold front over central TX will move into the CRP/HOU areas later today, but the air mass is only marginally unstable with dewpoints only in the 50s. A strong storm or two capable of gusty winds may occur around/after sunset as the front approaches the coast, but the overall threat appears rather low.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Monday, November 16
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 151642
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday.
Synopsis
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to amplify on Monday as it approaches the CA coast. Downstream of this trough, an upper ridge will continue to build across the central CONUS, while a positive-tilt upper trough remains in place over the East.
A modest increase in moisture is possible late in the period across southern CA/NV and western AZ, in advance of the approaching shortwave trough. Very isolated/sporadic lightning flashes cannot be ruled out with this system, but thunderstorm potential generally appears low due to very weak buoyancy. Otherwise, an expansive surface ridge over the central/eastern CONUS will limit moisture/instability and thunderstorm potential elsewhere through the period.
..Dean.. 11/15/2026
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Tuesday, November 17
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely Tuesday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 151841
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CST Sun Nov 15 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely Tuesday.
Parts of the Southwest/Four Corners region
A vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough initially over central/southern CA is forecast to move across the Southwest and southern/central Rockies through the period. In advance of this system, a modest increase in moisture and instability will support thunderstorm potential across parts of AZ/UT and southern NV into western CO/NM. Moderate to strong deep-layer flow will accompany this shortwave trough, but forecast buoyancy currently appears too limited for organized-severe potential. Small hail and locally gusty winds may occur with the strongest storms.
Northern CA/southern OR coasts
A strong offshore mid/upper=level low will begin to influence parts of the OR and northern CA coasts late in the period. A frontal rain band may move onshore late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, possibly accompanied by sporadic lightning flashes. Wind fields will be strong, but negligible inland surface-based instability is expected to limit organized-severe potential.
Elsewhere
East of the Rockies, an expansive surface ridge over the central/eastern CONUS will continue to limit moisture return and thunderstorm potential. One possible exception is across parts of the FL Peninsula and Keys, where a modest increase in moisture and the influence of a weak mid/upper-level trough could result in isolated thunderstorm development.
..Dean.. 11/15/2026
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Wednesday, November 18
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, November 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, November 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, November 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, November 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, November 22 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 151000 SPC AC 151000
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper ridging over the central US is forecast to weaken and shift toward the Southeast as stronger southwesterly flow aloft develops over the West. A surface low across the northern Plains will strengthen southerly low-level flow D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday. While initially moisture will be quite limited owing to the prior weekend frontal intrusion, the lead shortwave trough should allow a partially modified Gulf air mass to return across the central Plains ahead of another upper trough emerging from the Southwest by 12z D6/Friday.
Plains to the Midwest
Medium-range model guidance is in fairly good agreement that as the second trough crosses the Rockies, a relatively deep lee cyclone should develop over the central Plains D6/Friday. Southerly low-level flow with a corridor of 50-60 F surface dewpoints and steepening mid-level lapse rates will likely be sufficient for destabilization and scattered thunderstorms ahead of an associated cold front and lee trough. 60-70 kt mid-level winds overlapping with the aforementioned buoyancy suggests isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the central and southern Plains Friday afternoon and evening. However, model guidance is not clear on the extent and degree of the destabilization. Isolated severe potential may also continue as the upper-level system moves eastward D7/Saturday over the mid MS Valley and Midwest, but confidence remains too low for 15% probabilities at this time.
..Lyons.. 11/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, November 19
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, November 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, November 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, November 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, November 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, November 22 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 151000 SPC AC 151000
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper ridging over the central US is forecast to weaken and shift toward the Southeast as stronger southwesterly flow aloft develops over the West. A surface low across the northern Plains will strengthen southerly low-level flow D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday. While initially moisture will be quite limited owing to the prior weekend frontal intrusion, the lead shortwave trough should allow a partially modified Gulf air mass to return across the central Plains ahead of another upper trough emerging from the Southwest by 12z D6/Friday.
Plains to the Midwest
Medium-range model guidance is in fairly good agreement that as the second trough crosses the Rockies, a relatively deep lee cyclone should develop over the central Plains D6/Friday. Southerly low-level flow with a corridor of 50-60 F surface dewpoints and steepening mid-level lapse rates will likely be sufficient for destabilization and scattered thunderstorms ahead of an associated cold front and lee trough. 60-70 kt mid-level winds overlapping with the aforementioned buoyancy suggests isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the central and southern Plains Friday afternoon and evening. However, model guidance is not clear on the extent and degree of the destabilization. Isolated severe potential may also continue as the upper-level system moves eastward D7/Saturday over the mid MS Valley and Midwest, but confidence remains too low for 15% probabilities at this time.
..Lyons.. 11/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, November 20
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, November 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, November 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, November 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, November 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, November 22 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 151000 SPC AC 151000
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper ridging over the central US is forecast to weaken and shift toward the Southeast as stronger southwesterly flow aloft develops over the West. A surface low across the northern Plains will strengthen southerly low-level flow D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday. While initially moisture will be quite limited owing to the prior weekend frontal intrusion, the lead shortwave trough should allow a partially modified Gulf air mass to return across the central Plains ahead of another upper trough emerging from the Southwest by 12z D6/Friday.
Plains to the Midwest
Medium-range model guidance is in fairly good agreement that as the second trough crosses the Rockies, a relatively deep lee cyclone should develop over the central Plains D6/Friday. Southerly low-level flow with a corridor of 50-60 F surface dewpoints and steepening mid-level lapse rates will likely be sufficient for destabilization and scattered thunderstorms ahead of an associated cold front and lee trough. 60-70 kt mid-level winds overlapping with the aforementioned buoyancy suggests isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the central and southern Plains Friday afternoon and evening. However, model guidance is not clear on the extent and degree of the destabilization. Isolated severe potential may also continue as the upper-level system moves eastward D7/Saturday over the mid MS Valley and Midwest, but confidence remains too low for 15% probabilities at this time.
..Lyons.. 11/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, November 21
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, November 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, November 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, November 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, November 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, November 22 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 151000 SPC AC 151000
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper ridging over the central US is forecast to weaken and shift toward the Southeast as stronger southwesterly flow aloft develops over the West. A surface low across the northern Plains will strengthen southerly low-level flow D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday. While initially moisture will be quite limited owing to the prior weekend frontal intrusion, the lead shortwave trough should allow a partially modified Gulf air mass to return across the central Plains ahead of another upper trough emerging from the Southwest by 12z D6/Friday.
Plains to the Midwest
Medium-range model guidance is in fairly good agreement that as the second trough crosses the Rockies, a relatively deep lee cyclone should develop over the central Plains D6/Friday. Southerly low-level flow with a corridor of 50-60 F surface dewpoints and steepening mid-level lapse rates will likely be sufficient for destabilization and scattered thunderstorms ahead of an associated cold front and lee trough. 60-70 kt mid-level winds overlapping with the aforementioned buoyancy suggests isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the central and southern Plains Friday afternoon and evening. However, model guidance is not clear on the extent and degree of the destabilization. Isolated severe potential may also continue as the upper-level system moves eastward D7/Saturday over the mid MS Valley and Midwest, but confidence remains too low for 15% probabilities at this time.
..Lyons.. 11/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, November 22
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, November 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, November 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, November 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, November 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, November 22 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 151000 SPC AC 151000
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper ridging over the central US is forecast to weaken and shift toward the Southeast as stronger southwesterly flow aloft develops over the West. A surface low across the northern Plains will strengthen southerly low-level flow D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday. While initially moisture will be quite limited owing to the prior weekend frontal intrusion, the lead shortwave trough should allow a partially modified Gulf air mass to return across the central Plains ahead of another upper trough emerging from the Southwest by 12z D6/Friday.
Plains to the Midwest
Medium-range model guidance is in fairly good agreement that as the second trough crosses the Rockies, a relatively deep lee cyclone should develop over the central Plains D6/Friday. Southerly low-level flow with a corridor of 50-60 F surface dewpoints and steepening mid-level lapse rates will likely be sufficient for destabilization and scattered thunderstorms ahead of an associated cold front and lee trough. 60-70 kt mid-level winds overlapping with the aforementioned buoyancy suggests isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the central and southern Plains Friday afternoon and evening. However, model guidance is not clear on the extent and degree of the destabilization. Isolated severe potential may also continue as the upper-level system moves eastward D7/Saturday over the mid MS Valley and Midwest, but confidence remains too low for 15% probabilities at this time.
..Lyons.. 11/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, November 15
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Monday, November 16
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, November 17
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Wednesday, November 18
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, November 19
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, November 20
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, November 21
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, November 22
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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