Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, November 2
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes are expected across parts of the southern and central Plains this evening into tonight. Severe storms will also affect western Missouri and northwest Arkansas overnight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 030100
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 PM CST Mon Nov 02 2026
Valid 030100Z - 031200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes are expected across parts of the southern and central Plains this evening into tonight. Severe storms will also affect western Missouri and northwest Arkansas overnight.
Southern and Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley
On water vapor imagery, an upper-level trough is evident in the southern High Plains with cyclonically curved southwest flow in place over the southern and central Plains. Within this flow, a 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet is analyzed from southern New Mexico extending northeastward into western Oklahoma. A line of strong to severe storms is ongoing to the east of the mid-level jet in an area with strong large-scale ascent from far southern Kansas into southwest Oklahoma. Ahead of this line, surface dewpoints are mostly in the lower to mid 60s F and the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. In addition, the WSR-88D VWP at Oklahoma City has 0-6 km shear of 65 to 70 knots with some directional shear in the low-levels, and backing in the mid-levels. The strong deep-layer shear will continue to be favorable for severe storms this evening, as a line segment gradually organizes and moves eastward across the moist sector.
So far across Oklahoma, the dominant storm mode has been linear, and discrete supercell development has failed to materialize. This will likely continue to be a problem this evening concerning the potential for a greater severe and tornado threat. Within the ongoing line, tornado potential will be maximized with embedded rotating elements. A few QLCS-type tornadoes still appear possible as this line moves eastward across central/northern Oklahoma and southeast Kansas this evening. A wind-damage threat will accompany the line, and a few gusts above 70 mph will be possible, mainly with the segments of the line that exhibit bowing structure…see MCD 2435 and 2437. The severe threat should impact western Missouri and northwest Arkansas during the overnight period.
Further south into southwest Oklahoma and northwest Texas, the cells have been more discrete early this evening. A couple of supercells are ongoing near the Red River. These storms are located along the far southern edge of the low-level jet. As the low-level jet continues to ramp up this evening, low-level shear will be favorable for continued severe thunderstorm development. Severe wind gusts, hail and potentially a few tornadoes will be possible…see MCD 2436.
West-central and North-central Texas
The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level trough in the southern High Plains. The southeastern edge of the system is located across west-central Teas, where a band of strong thunderstorms is currently developing. These storms are located near a surface trough along the northwestern edge of a moist airmass with surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F. Near the surface trough, the RAP has MLCAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range. In addition, the VAD wind profilers near San Angelo and Abilene have 40 to 50 knots of west-southwesterly flow in the mid-levels, which should support supercell development this evening. The primary threats are expected to be severe wind gusts and hail.
..Broyles.. 11/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Tuesday, November 3
Outlook Summary
Scattered storms will occur from the Sabine and Lower Mississippi Valleys northward into the Mid Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. A few thunderstorms may produce damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 021727
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CST Mon Nov 02 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS AND THE ARK-LA-MISS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Scattered storms will occur from the Sabine and Lower Mississippi Valleys northward into the Mid Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. A few thunderstorms may produce damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes.
MS Valley area
The primary surface cyclone is expected to develop north-northeastward from eastern KS Tuesday morning to the upper MS Valley by Wednesday morning, as the associated midlevel trough progresses eastward and northeastward across the MS Valley well in advance of an upstream trough approaching northern CA. An associated surface cold front will likewise move eastward through the day across MO/AR. Clouds and convection will be relatively widespread along the front at the beginning of the period, and a messy/QLCS convective mode will likely persist through the day.
The primary cyclone developing away from the moisture source region, the widespread clouds/rain, and poor midlevel lapse all suggest that warm sector buoyancy will also remain limited through the period. The richer low-level moisture and slightly larger buoyancy will likely remain confined to the Ark-La-Miss, where low-level shear/hodograph curvature is forecast to be sufficient for embedded rotating storms capable of producing a tornado or two and isolated wind damage. The isolated severe threat could persist into Tuesday night across northern MS and vicinity on the east edge of the returning low-level moisture and near the southern extent of the stronger low-level flow/shear. Farther north into the mid MS Valley, the severe threat farther north will be confined to the strongest embedded line segments during the day. There is a small chance for low-topped supercells near the surface cyclone Tuesday afternoon.
..Thompson.. 11/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Wednesday, November 4
Outlook Summary
Severe storms are unlikely on Wednesday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 021927
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Mon Nov 02 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe storms are unlikely on Wednesday.
Synopsis
A cyclone is forecast to occlude in the vicinity of WI as a cold front slows its eastward movement late in the period across the upper OH Valley, and stalls across the TN/lower MS Valley region. The southern extent of an associated midlevel trough will brush the northern edge of a weakly unstable warm sector early in the period. Forcing for ascent and low-level flow/shear will tend to weaken within the warm sector by afternoon, so any threat for severe storms in the vicinity of northern AL appears too marginal for an outlook area. Otherwise, isolated lightning flashes will be possible into parts of the Great Lakes with marginal buoyancy.
Farther west, a shortwave trough will progress quickly eastward over the Four Corners to the southern High Plains late in the period. Ascent in the left-exit region of the mid-upper jet streak, in combination with sufficient moisture and steep lapse rates, will support the potential for lightning flashes with low-topped convection.
..Thompson.. 11/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Thursday, November 5
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, November 5 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, November 6 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, November 7 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, November 8 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, November 9 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020844 SPC AC 020844
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CST Mon Nov 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
DISCUSSION
On Thur/D4, the upper low over the Great Lakes will weak as the larger-scale upper trough moves into the eastern USA. An associated cold front will also push toward the eastern seaboard late Thur into Fri/D5. A marginally unstable air mass may support thunderstorms along the front over parts of the Mid Atlantic and Southeast, but this along with weak low-level winds are unlikely to support severe storms.
From Sat/D6 to Mon/D8, an upper ridge may develop over the West, with possible trough amplifications into the Plains as upper waves round the ridge and dig southeastward. This will support additional reinforcements of high pressure into the central and eastern states, with minimal chance of thunderstorms.
..Jewell.. 11/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, November 6
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, November 5 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, November 6 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, November 7 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, November 8 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, November 9 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020844 SPC AC 020844
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CST Mon Nov 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
DISCUSSION
On Thur/D4, the upper low over the Great Lakes will weak as the larger-scale upper trough moves into the eastern USA. An associated cold front will also push toward the eastern seaboard late Thur into Fri/D5. A marginally unstable air mass may support thunderstorms along the front over parts of the Mid Atlantic and Southeast, but this along with weak low-level winds are unlikely to support severe storms.
From Sat/D6 to Mon/D8, an upper ridge may develop over the West, with possible trough amplifications into the Plains as upper waves round the ridge and dig southeastward. This will support additional reinforcements of high pressure into the central and eastern states, with minimal chance of thunderstorms.
..Jewell.. 11/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, November 7
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, November 5 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, November 6 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, November 7 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, November 8 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, November 9 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020844 SPC AC 020844
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CST Mon Nov 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
DISCUSSION
On Thur/D4, the upper low over the Great Lakes will weak as the larger-scale upper trough moves into the eastern USA. An associated cold front will also push toward the eastern seaboard late Thur into Fri/D5. A marginally unstable air mass may support thunderstorms along the front over parts of the Mid Atlantic and Southeast, but this along with weak low-level winds are unlikely to support severe storms.
From Sat/D6 to Mon/D8, an upper ridge may develop over the West, with possible trough amplifications into the Plains as upper waves round the ridge and dig southeastward. This will support additional reinforcements of high pressure into the central and eastern states, with minimal chance of thunderstorms.
..Jewell.. 11/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, November 8
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, November 5 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, November 6 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, November 7 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, November 8 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, November 9 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020844 SPC AC 020844
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CST Mon Nov 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
DISCUSSION
On Thur/D4, the upper low over the Great Lakes will weak as the larger-scale upper trough moves into the eastern USA. An associated cold front will also push toward the eastern seaboard late Thur into Fri/D5. A marginally unstable air mass may support thunderstorms along the front over parts of the Mid Atlantic and Southeast, but this along with weak low-level winds are unlikely to support severe storms.
From Sat/D6 to Mon/D8, an upper ridge may develop over the West, with possible trough amplifications into the Plains as upper waves round the ridge and dig southeastward. This will support additional reinforcements of high pressure into the central and eastern states, with minimal chance of thunderstorms.
..Jewell.. 11/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, November 9
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, November 5 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, November 6 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, November 7 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, November 8 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, November 9 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020844 SPC AC 020844
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CST Mon Nov 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
DISCUSSION
On Thur/D4, the upper low over the Great Lakes will weak as the larger-scale upper trough moves into the eastern USA. An associated cold front will also push toward the eastern seaboard late Thur into Fri/D5. A marginally unstable air mass may support thunderstorms along the front over parts of the Mid Atlantic and Southeast, but this along with weak low-level winds are unlikely to support severe storms.
From Sat/D6 to Mon/D8, an upper ridge may develop over the West, with possible trough amplifications into the Plains as upper waves round the ridge and dig southeastward. This will support additional reinforcements of high pressure into the central and eastern states, with minimal chance of thunderstorms.
..Jewell.. 11/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, November 2
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Tuesday, November 3
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Wednesday, November 4
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Thursday, November 5
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, November 6
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, November 7
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, November 8
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, November 9
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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