Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, September 18
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts may develop late this afternoon and early this evening from the Carolinas into northern Georgia, and in the mid Missouri Valley. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible in parts of the Intermountain West.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 180555
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO NORTHERN GEORGIA…IN THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY AND IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts may develop late this afternoon and early this evening from the Carolinas into northern Georgia, and in the mid Missouri Valley. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible in parts of the Intermountain West.
Carolinas/Northern Georgia
At the surface, a cold front will move southward into the Mid-Atlantic today. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place over much of the Carolinas extending southwestward into northern Georgia. Surface dewpoints within this airmass will be in the 60s to near 70 F. As surface temperatures warm today, an axis of moderate instability will develop along the moist axis. In response to surface heating, scattered thunderstorms will form in the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians and move southward into the southern Appalachian foothills. The thermodynamic environment may be enough to support an isolated wind-damage threat, mainly in the late afternoon and early evening when low-level lapse rates become steepest.
Eastern Nebraska/Iowa
Mid-level heights will gradually fall today over much of the north-central U.S., as a ridge pattern breaks down. At the surface, a well-defined moist axis will be in place from the mid Mississippi Valley northwestward into the mid Missouri Valley. Surface dewpoints along and near this axis will be in the lower to mid 70s F. In response to surface heating, a reservoir of moderate instability will be in place by afternoon over much of Iowa. Low-level convergence is forecast to become maximized during the afternoon along the instability axis, and further west to near a surface low over the mid Missouri Valley. Thunderstorm development will be most likely this afternoon on the northern end of the stronger instability from far southeast Minnesota into northern Iowa. Enough instability and deep-layer shear should be in place for isolated severe wind gusts. Although conditional, the threat could develop southwestward over the remainder of Iowa during the early evening, as a low-level jet strengthens across the region.
Intermountain West
A mid-level trough will move eastward across the Intermountain West today. Southwest flow aloft will be in place ahead of the trough over much of the region. At the surface, dewpoints in the 50s F are expected from northern Utah into valleys of western Wyoming, where the RAP is forecasting MLCAPE to peak in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range. In addition to the instability, forecast soundings show moderate deep-layer shear in response to the approaching mid-level trough. As low to mid-level lapse rates become steep in the late afternoon and early evening, isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible.
..Broyles/Thornton.. 09/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Saturday, September 19
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe wind and hail producing storms are likely across portions of the central Plains, with more isolated severe storms possible across the central High Plains, central Rockies, and the Midwest to Southeast states tomorrow (Saturday).
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 180550
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe wind and hail producing storms are likely across portions of the central Plains, with more isolated severe storms possible across the central High Plains, central Rockies, and the Midwest to Southeast states tomorrow (Saturday).
Synopsis
Upper ridging over the central and eastern CONUS will begin to de-amplify to a degree, allowing for multiple pronounced mid-level impulses to traverse the central CONUS through the day tomorrow (Saturday). The passage of these upper-level impulses will encourage the southward shunting of a surface cold front across the central Plains into the Midwest/OH Valley regions. Low-level convergence and moisture advection along this front will encourage at least scattered thunderstorm development during the day, from the High Plains to the OH Valley. In addition to moisture-induced buoyancy, the development of a low-level jet bisecting this front, especially in the Plains states, will introduce vertical wind shear, encouraging the development of a few severe storms as well.
Central Plains to the southern High Plains
As the surface cold front drifts southward through the day, surface heating of the preceding airmass will boost surface temperatures into at least the mid 80s F, amid 70 F dewpoints, yielding 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE, despite mid-level lapse rates only reaching 6.5-7 C/km. Thunderstorms should develop across the cold front, from southeastern IA to the southern High Plains by afternoon peak heating. Low-level moisture and vertical wind shear will be most favorable for severe storms over the central Plains. 30 kts of effective bulk shear will encourage the development of multicells and supercells along the front. The stronger storm cores may support some severe hail production, while merging storms will have the highest potential for producing severe wind gusts. At least isolated severe gusts are also possible with high-based storms over a deeper boundary layer across the southern High Plains, where some forecast soundings show mixing up to 600 mb.
Midwest to Southeast States
Appreciably rich low-level moisture should encompass the periphery of the upper ridge across the Midwest toward the Gulf Coast. Despite mediocre lapse rates, flow, and forcing aloft, low to mid 70s F surface dewpoints amid minimal MLCINH will encourage at least widely scattered thunderstorm development through the afternoon. The 70s F surface dewpoints will contribute to 1500+ J/kg of tall and thin MLCAPE. A few water loaded downbursts may accompany some of the stronger storms, where isolated damaging gusts will be a concern. ### Central High Plains
Upslope low-level flow and accompanying low-level moisture advection will serve as the impetus for convective initiation across the central High Plains on Saturday. 7.5+ C/km mid-level lapse rates will overspread 60s F surface dewpoints, boosting MLCAPE to over 1500 J/kg. Furthermore, the upslope flow beneath mid-level westerlies will yield over 30 kts of effective bulk shear, favoring multicell and perhaps transient supercell development, accompanied by a risk of at least isolated severe wind or hail.
Portions of the central Rockies
By Saturday afternoon, a low-amplitude mid-level trough will overspread the central Rockies, accompanied by cooler mid-level temperatures and westerly flow. The vertical wind field should be unidirectional, but increasing flow aloft will yield over 30 kts of effective speed shear. When also considering 7.5+ C/km mid-level lapse rates, any storm that develops and becomes sustained may become supercellular, with a few instances of severe wind or hail possible.
..Squitieri.. 09/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Sunday, September 20
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe thunderstorms, accompanied by mainly a wind and hail threat, are possible across portions of the central High Plains, the southern Plains, and the Midwest to Ohio Valley on Sunday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 180706
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS…SOUTHERN PLAINS…AND MIDWEST TO THE OHIO VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe thunderstorms, accompanied by mainly a wind and hail threat, are possible across portions of the central High Plains, the southern Plains, and the Midwest to Ohio Valley on Sunday.
Synopsis
A relatively zonal upper-air pattern will become established across the CONUS on Sunday, with a mid-level low-amplitude shortwave trough expected to eject into the central Plains while a more amplified upper trough impinges on the California Coastline. As the Plains low-amplitude upper trough progresses eastward, a surface cold front will continue to sag southward across the southern Plains to the TN Valley region. Thunderstorms should develop along or ahead of the cold front. Relatively rich low-level moisture preceding the front, along with modestly cooler temperatures aloft, may yield enough buoyancy to support an isolated severe threat, mainly across the southern Plains and the Midwest to OH Valley.
Southern Plains
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm initiation should take place ahead of the surface cold front by afternoon peak heating, especially over northern to central OK. Here, surface temperatures climbing through the 80s F, amid upper 60s F dewpoints, will support 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Up to 40 kts of effective bulk shear, amid 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates, may encourage multicellular organization, accompanied by mainly a severe wind/hail threat. Given modest forcing for ascent, storm coverage is uncertain, so the severe threat is currently anticipated to remain isolated.
Central High Plains
Upslope flow along the central High Plains will encourage enough orographic lift for the development of a few thunderstorms by late Sunday afternoon or evening. 7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates and elongated, straight hodographs with 50 kts of effective bulk shear will favor stronger updrafts to organize into supercells. Severe hail and wind will be the main threats.
Midwest to OH Valley
Surface dewpoints over 70 F will precede the cold front over the Midwest to OH Valley corridor as it progresses southward. Both pre-frontal and ana-frontal storm development is possible Sunday afternoon. Over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE will exist ahead of the front, though vertical wind shear should be modest (i.e. 25-35 kts of effective bulk shear). A mix of multicells, short line segments, and perhaps a supercell are likely. However, the severe threat is currently anticipated to be relatively isolated in nature, with mainly a few instances of severe wind or hail likely.
..Squitieri.. 09/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Monday, September 21
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, September 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, September 22 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, September 23 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, September 24 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, September 25 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180820 SPC AC 180820
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
Initially zonal mid-level flow, with embedded low-amplitude impulses traversing the central CONUS early next week, will give way to gradual amplification of an upper ridge over the central U.S. The best chance for any severe thunderstorms will be on Day 4/Monday across the TN Valley, where a surface cold front, preceded by rich low-level moisture, will be slow to clear the region. Thereafter, drier low-level conditions will prevail across much of the central and eastern CONUS, with surface high pressure poised to settle over much of the U.S. between the MS River and the Appalachians, limiting the severe threat.
..Squitieri.. 09/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, September 22
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, September 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, September 22 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, September 23 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, September 24 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, September 25 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180820 SPC AC 180820
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
Initially zonal mid-level flow, with embedded low-amplitude impulses traversing the central CONUS early next week, will give way to gradual amplification of an upper ridge over the central U.S. The best chance for any severe thunderstorms will be on Day 4/Monday across the TN Valley, where a surface cold front, preceded by rich low-level moisture, will be slow to clear the region. Thereafter, drier low-level conditions will prevail across much of the central and eastern CONUS, with surface high pressure poised to settle over much of the U.S. between the MS River and the Appalachians, limiting the severe threat.
..Squitieri.. 09/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, September 23
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, September 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, September 22 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, September 23 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, September 24 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, September 25 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180820 SPC AC 180820
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
Initially zonal mid-level flow, with embedded low-amplitude impulses traversing the central CONUS early next week, will give way to gradual amplification of an upper ridge over the central U.S. The best chance for any severe thunderstorms will be on Day 4/Monday across the TN Valley, where a surface cold front, preceded by rich low-level moisture, will be slow to clear the region. Thereafter, drier low-level conditions will prevail across much of the central and eastern CONUS, with surface high pressure poised to settle over much of the U.S. between the MS River and the Appalachians, limiting the severe threat.
..Squitieri.. 09/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, September 24
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, September 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, September 22 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, September 23 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, September 24 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, September 25 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180820 SPC AC 180820
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
Initially zonal mid-level flow, with embedded low-amplitude impulses traversing the central CONUS early next week, will give way to gradual amplification of an upper ridge over the central U.S. The best chance for any severe thunderstorms will be on Day 4/Monday across the TN Valley, where a surface cold front, preceded by rich low-level moisture, will be slow to clear the region. Thereafter, drier low-level conditions will prevail across much of the central and eastern CONUS, with surface high pressure poised to settle over much of the U.S. between the MS River and the Appalachians, limiting the severe threat.
..Squitieri.. 09/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, September 25
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, September 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, September 22 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, September 23 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, September 24 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, September 25 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180820 SPC AC 180820
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
Initially zonal mid-level flow, with embedded low-amplitude impulses traversing the central CONUS early next week, will give way to gradual amplification of an upper ridge over the central U.S. The best chance for any severe thunderstorms will be on Day 4/Monday across the TN Valley, where a surface cold front, preceded by rich low-level moisture, will be slow to clear the region. Thereafter, drier low-level conditions will prevail across much of the central and eastern CONUS, with surface high pressure poised to settle over much of the U.S. between the MS River and the Appalachians, limiting the severe threat.
..Squitieri.. 09/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, September 18
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Saturday, September 19
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Sunday, September 20
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Monday, September 21
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, September 22
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, September 23
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, September 24
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, September 25
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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