Severe Weather Outlook

show me my personal outlook →

National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Saturday, February 14

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms should develop and spread eastward late this afternoon into the evening and overnight from parts of central/east Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley. A few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated severe hail all appear possible.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 141630

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Valid 141630Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms should develop and spread eastward late this afternoon into the evening and overnight from parts of central/east Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley. A few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated severe hail all appear possible.

Central/East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley

A southern-stream mid/upper-level shortwave trough will continue to move quickly eastward across the southern Plains/northern Mexico today, eventually reaching the lower MS Valley tonight. At the surface, a weak low over northwest OK late this morning will develop towards the ArkLaTex by this evening while gradually deepening. An attendant cold front will sweep east-southeastward across central/east TX in tandem with the surface low, and will likely provide a focus for robust surface-based convection later this afternoon/evening. The northern extent of the surface warm sector is forecast to remain somewhat constrained by slowly eroding surface high pressure centered over the Carolinas, with a warm front expected to make only slow progress northward across LA and the central Gulf Coast States through the end of the period.

Ongoing, loosely organized convection extending from north-central to southwest TX may pose an isolated threat for hail and gusty winds through the rest of this morning into mid afternoon. With continued filtered daytime heating of a seasonably moist low-level airmass, it still appears likely that a gradual uptick in thunderstorm coverage and intensity will occur across parts of central/east TX by mid to late afternoon. Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings across this region indicate MLCAPE will likely be hindered to some extent due to saturated low-level profiles and modest mid-level lapse rates. Still, the risk for scattered severe/damaging winds should increase from late afternoon into the evening as convection gradually consolidates into a line amid strengthening low/mid-level south-southwesterly flow and related low-level/deep-layer shear. Some guidance suggests potential for a supercell or two with southward extent across central TX. If this occurs, than a locally greater threat for large hail may exist given somewhat more favorable mid-level lapse rates with southward extent amid the presence of strong deep-layer shear. However, confidence in this scenario occurring remains too limited for a Slight Risk expansion into central TX at this time.

Some risk for line-embedded tornadoes should also exist this evening into early Sunday morning from parts of east TX into LA with the bowing line, particularly as effective SRH becomes maximized with an increasing southerly low-level jet across the warm sector. The potential for pre-frontal supercells ahead of the line remains unclear. Instability is expected to become meager with eastward extent late tonight/Sunday morning along the central Gulf Coast, which should result in a gradual weakening of the line towards sunrise/the end of the period. Still, the threat for at least isolated damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two may persist given the ample low-level shear forecast.

Western North Texas into Western/Central Oklahoma

Cold mid-level temperatures (around -16 to -18C at 500 mb) will be present across parts of western north TX into OK this afternoon as the upper trough continues eastward over the southern Plains. While residual low-level moisture and weak MUCAPE will be present beneath the upper trough, relatively modest low/mid-level winds should generally temper the threat for large hail with any widely spaced cells that can develop this afternoon.

..Gleason/Wendt.. 02/14/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Sunday, February 15

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday across parts of northern Florida and adjacent southern Georgia, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts and a couple of tornadoes, including potential for a strong tornado or two.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 141724

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA.

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday across parts of northern Florida and adjacent southern Georgia, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts and a couple of tornadoes, including potential for a strong tornado or two.

Synopsis

On Sunday, a mid-level trough moving across the Southeast will merge with an additional trough moving from the Great Lakes to the Northeast. In the wake of this trough, mid-level ridging will build across the central CONUS. A surface low associated with the mid-level trough traversing the Southeast will gradually weaken through the day before deepening somewhat Sunday night in the western Atlantic as the larger-scale trough merges.

Southeast

A line of storms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across eastern Mississippi/western Alabama. Weak instability is forecast ahead of this line with low 60s dewpoints. Strong low-level shear may support embedded rotation/tornado potential where the greater (250 J/kg+) MLCAPE exists. 12Z CAM guidance shows varying storm mode solutions, with some indication of the line becoming more broken through the morning while other guidance keeps it more organized. Given the ascent ahead of the mid-level trough and a persistent 40-50 knot low-level jet, expect the line to remain more organized Sunday morning and through the afternoon. Damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes will be the primary threat along this line. A strong tornado is possible across southern Georgia and northern Florida Sunday afternoon where the greatest instability and strong low-level jet overlap.

12Z guidance shows some low 60s dewpoints into southern South Carolina. Therefore, given at least some weak instability in the forecast soundings, have expanded the marginal risk into southern North Carolina for the conditional tornado/damaging wind threat Sunday morning through the afternoon.

Additional thunderstorms may develop beneath the mid-level cold pool Sunday afternoon from eastern Alabama into central Georgia as MLCAPE around 500 to 750 J/kg develops. However, shear will be weak by this time. Therefore, some small hail may occur with this activity, but no severe weather is anticipated with these thunderstorms.

..Bentley.. 02/14/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Monday, February 16

Outlook Summary

Strong thunderstorms may impact southern California coastal areas south of Vandenberg AFB into the Los Angeles Basin Monday, accompanied by at least some risk for damaging wind gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 140824

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF SOUTHERN CA COASTAL AREAS

### SUMMARY

Strong thunderstorms may impact southern California coastal areas south of Vandenberg AFB into the Los Angeles Basin Monday, accompanied by at least some risk for damaging wind gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes.

Discussion

To the northeast of a blocking mid-level ridge centered over the southern mid-latitude Pacific (between 150-160W longitude), models indicate that a vigorous short wave perturbation will undergo further amplification while digging offshore of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast during this period. It appears that this will be accompanied by lower/mid-tropospheric cyclogenesis, and force an initially significant downstream trough inland across California and much of the Great Basin, into the northern Rockies Monday night. As this occurs, deep surface troughing is also forecast to develop inland, centered near the northern Rockies through the central and southern Great Plains by 12Z Tuesday.

Guidance indicates that the lead perturbation will be accompanied by an intense mid/upper jet (including a 100-110+ kt maximum around 500 mb) nosing inland across southern California through the Four Corners. Forcing associated with this feature may be supporting modest cyclogenesis offshore of the California coast by the beginning of the period. The low may deepen a bit further while occluding and migrating inland south of the San Francisco Bay vicinity during the day Monday.

Southern California coast

It appears that a corridor of low-level moistening, along and ahead of the front trailing the occluding surface low, will gradually contribute to sufficient destabilization to support deepening convective development while spreading inland across coastal areas south of Vandenberg AFB through the Los Angeles Basin, perhaps beginning as early as late Monday morning. Aided by mid/upper forcing for ascent and strong mid-level cooling, NAM forecast soundings suggest thermodynamic profiles may become supportive of thunderstorm development, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. Wind profiles may include 40-50 kt southerly flow around the 850 mb level, with sizable low-level hodographs developing, aided by orography, south of the western Transverse Ranges into the Los Angeles Basin, potentially contributing to an environment conducive to supercells capable of producing tornadoes, in addition to potentially damaging wind gusts.

..Kerr.. 02/14/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Tuesday, February 17

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 141000 SPC AC 141000

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range model output indicates generally low predictability concerning the evolution of the blocking pattern over the mid-latitude central into eastern Pacific, and downstream developments inland and across North America, through this period. Most certain, at this time, it appears that a fairly significant perturbation emerging from Intermountain West on Tuesday will be accompanied by deep surface troughing overspreading much of the mid/lower Missouri Valley through the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley, before weakening across the Great Lakes on Wednesday. This will be accompanied by strengthening deep-layer wind fields and shear, conditionally supportive of organized convective development given sufficient destabilization. However, there has been little change from prior model runs, which have indicated that, despite an initially seasonably warm environment across much of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley, the lack of appreciable Gulf moisture return will inhibit convective potential through at least the middle of next week.

Thereafter, in the mean, a broadly cyclonic to anticyclonic southwesterly regime may characterize the flow into next weekend across the southern Rockies and Great Plains through the Mid Atlantic, to the west-northwest through north of a fairly prominent subtropical high shifting from the Gulf Basin into Bahamas/Caribbean vicinity. It is possible that a short wave embedded within this regime may support significant lee cyclogenesis, as the Gulf boundary layer becomes supportive of a more substantive moist return flow. This, in turn, could become supportive of an increase in potential for severe thunderstorm development, but a clear and consistent signal has yet to emerge in the various medium range guidance.

..Kerr.. 02/14/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Wednesday, February 18

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 141000 SPC AC 141000

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range model output indicates generally low predictability concerning the evolution of the blocking pattern over the mid-latitude central into eastern Pacific, and downstream developments inland and across North America, through this period. Most certain, at this time, it appears that a fairly significant perturbation emerging from Intermountain West on Tuesday will be accompanied by deep surface troughing overspreading much of the mid/lower Missouri Valley through the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley, before weakening across the Great Lakes on Wednesday. This will be accompanied by strengthening deep-layer wind fields and shear, conditionally supportive of organized convective development given sufficient destabilization. However, there has been little change from prior model runs, which have indicated that, despite an initially seasonably warm environment across much of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley, the lack of appreciable Gulf moisture return will inhibit convective potential through at least the middle of next week.

Thereafter, in the mean, a broadly cyclonic to anticyclonic southwesterly regime may characterize the flow into next weekend across the southern Rockies and Great Plains through the Mid Atlantic, to the west-northwest through north of a fairly prominent subtropical high shifting from the Gulf Basin into Bahamas/Caribbean vicinity. It is possible that a short wave embedded within this regime may support significant lee cyclogenesis, as the Gulf boundary layer becomes supportive of a more substantive moist return flow. This, in turn, could become supportive of an increase in potential for severe thunderstorm development, but a clear and consistent signal has yet to emerge in the various medium range guidance.

..Kerr.. 02/14/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Thursday, February 19

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 141000 SPC AC 141000

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range model output indicates generally low predictability concerning the evolution of the blocking pattern over the mid-latitude central into eastern Pacific, and downstream developments inland and across North America, through this period. Most certain, at this time, it appears that a fairly significant perturbation emerging from Intermountain West on Tuesday will be accompanied by deep surface troughing overspreading much of the mid/lower Missouri Valley through the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley, before weakening across the Great Lakes on Wednesday. This will be accompanied by strengthening deep-layer wind fields and shear, conditionally supportive of organized convective development given sufficient destabilization. However, there has been little change from prior model runs, which have indicated that, despite an initially seasonably warm environment across much of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley, the lack of appreciable Gulf moisture return will inhibit convective potential through at least the middle of next week.

Thereafter, in the mean, a broadly cyclonic to anticyclonic southwesterly regime may characterize the flow into next weekend across the southern Rockies and Great Plains through the Mid Atlantic, to the west-northwest through north of a fairly prominent subtropical high shifting from the Gulf Basin into Bahamas/Caribbean vicinity. It is possible that a short wave embedded within this regime may support significant lee cyclogenesis, as the Gulf boundary layer becomes supportive of a more substantive moist return flow. This, in turn, could become supportive of an increase in potential for severe thunderstorm development, but a clear and consistent signal has yet to emerge in the various medium range guidance.

..Kerr.. 02/14/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Friday, February 20

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 141000 SPC AC 141000

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range model output indicates generally low predictability concerning the evolution of the blocking pattern over the mid-latitude central into eastern Pacific, and downstream developments inland and across North America, through this period. Most certain, at this time, it appears that a fairly significant perturbation emerging from Intermountain West on Tuesday will be accompanied by deep surface troughing overspreading much of the mid/lower Missouri Valley through the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley, before weakening across the Great Lakes on Wednesday. This will be accompanied by strengthening deep-layer wind fields and shear, conditionally supportive of organized convective development given sufficient destabilization. However, there has been little change from prior model runs, which have indicated that, despite an initially seasonably warm environment across much of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley, the lack of appreciable Gulf moisture return will inhibit convective potential through at least the middle of next week.

Thereafter, in the mean, a broadly cyclonic to anticyclonic southwesterly regime may characterize the flow into next weekend across the southern Rockies and Great Plains through the Mid Atlantic, to the west-northwest through north of a fairly prominent subtropical high shifting from the Gulf Basin into Bahamas/Caribbean vicinity. It is possible that a short wave embedded within this regime may support significant lee cyclogenesis, as the Gulf boundary layer becomes supportive of a more substantive moist return flow. This, in turn, could become supportive of an increase in potential for severe thunderstorm development, but a clear and consistent signal has yet to emerge in the various medium range guidance.

..Kerr.. 02/14/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Saturday, February 21

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 141000 SPC AC 141000

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range model output indicates generally low predictability concerning the evolution of the blocking pattern over the mid-latitude central into eastern Pacific, and downstream developments inland and across North America, through this period. Most certain, at this time, it appears that a fairly significant perturbation emerging from Intermountain West on Tuesday will be accompanied by deep surface troughing overspreading much of the mid/lower Missouri Valley through the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley, before weakening across the Great Lakes on Wednesday. This will be accompanied by strengthening deep-layer wind fields and shear, conditionally supportive of organized convective development given sufficient destabilization. However, there has been little change from prior model runs, which have indicated that, despite an initially seasonably warm environment across much of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley, the lack of appreciable Gulf moisture return will inhibit convective potential through at least the middle of next week.

Thereafter, in the mean, a broadly cyclonic to anticyclonic southwesterly regime may characterize the flow into next weekend across the southern Rockies and Great Plains through the Mid Atlantic, to the west-northwest through north of a fairly prominent subtropical high shifting from the Gulf Basin into Bahamas/Caribbean vicinity. It is possible that a short wave embedded within this regime may support significant lee cyclogenesis, as the Gulf boundary layer becomes supportive of a more substantive moist return flow. This, in turn, could become supportive of an increase in potential for severe thunderstorm development, but a clear and consistent signal has yet to emerge in the various medium range guidance.

..Kerr.. 02/14/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

National Risk Overview

Saturday, February 14

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 15%

Sunday, February 15

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 15%

Monday, February 16

ANY SEVERE: 5%

Tuesday, February 17

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Wednesday, February 18

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Thursday, February 19

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, February 20

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Saturday, February 21

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

---

Your Severe Outlook

---

---

About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.

• tornado hq - live severe weather warnings
• cyclocane - hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones
• tornado solitaire - play cards while you monitor the US severe weather threat
• tertremo - live view of earthquakes around the world
• earthquake solitaire - get live earthquake updates as you play your favorite card game