TORNADO HQ: waiting on update ...

Finding your location risk...

Severe Weather Outlook

show me my personal outlook →

Hayley here - Do you like lofi music whatever music Hayley put on and terrifyingly loud computer voices? Then stop by the 24/7 ish severe weather live stream!


* stats delayed and were probably not accurate to begin with

National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Friday, January 16
Saturday, January 17
Sunday, January 18
Monday, January 19
Tuesday, January 20
Wednesday, January 21
Thursday, January 22
Friday, January 23

Outlook for Friday, January 16

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 160558

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight.

DISCUSSION

A large-scale upper-level trough will dig southeastward into the central states today, as mid-level flow becomes west-southwesterly across the east-central U.S. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward into the western Gulf Coast states and Tennessee Valley. A large area of high pressure behind the front will reinforce a cold and dry airmass in place over much of the nation. In response, conditions will be unfavorable for thunderstorm development today and tonight across the continental U.S.

..Broyles/Halbert.. 01/16/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Saturday, January 17

Outlook Summary

No severe thunderstorms are expected on Saturday.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 160600

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

No severe thunderstorms are expected on Saturday.

Synopsis

A large-scale upper trough oriented from the Upper Midwest to the southern Rockies will pivot east on Saturday, becoming positioned from the Great Lakes to the western Gulf by Sunday morning. At the surface, a cold front will sweep east/southeast across the Midwest and southern Plains. Gulf moisture will remain cut-off, precluding thunderstorm activity for most of the CONUS. With the approach of the upper trough and stronger height falls, low pressure may develop near the FL Straits and toward the Bahamas late in the period. Sufficient boundary layer moisture will exist to support weak buoyancy amid increasing southwesterly flow above 700 mb. This could foster a couple of thunderstorms approaching the upper FL Keys to the southeast coastal FL Peninsula after 06z, though the bulk of any thunderstorm activity should mainly remain offshore. Severe storms are not expected.

..Leitman.. 01/16/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Sunday, January 18

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 160705

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

Synopsis

An upper trough will move across the eastern U.S. through Sunday evening. Thereafter, broad upper troughing will persist across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies. At the surface, a cold front will develop southeast across the FL Peninsula through afternoon. Sufficient boundary layer moisture will be present to support weak buoyancy. Large-scale ascent associated with the approaching upper trough, and along the surface front, may support isolated thunderstorm activity across portions of the Keys into the southeast FL Peninsula during the morning and afternoon before the cold front moves offshore. Severe storms are not expected.

..Leitman.. 01/16/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Monday, January 19

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Monday, January 19 potential too low
Day 5 Tuesday, January 20 potential too low
Day 6 Wednesday, January 21 potential too low
Day 7 Thursday, January 22 potential too low
Day 8 Friday, January 23 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160834 SPC AC 160834

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

DISCUSSION

Broad upper troughing will persist across much of the CONUS from the Rockies to the Eastern Seaboard during the Day 4-8 period. Surface high pressure will largely keep Gulf moisture well offshore, with cold air intrusions into the Plains and eastern U.S. precluding much in the way of thunderstorm potential.

The exception may be briefly on Day 6/Wednesday across portions of the Texas Coastal Plain vicinity. As a reinforcing shortwave upper trough ejects across the Rockies, lee surface low development over western TX will allow for very modest Gulf moisture to filter into south/southeast TX. A cold front will sweep south/southeast during the evening/overnight and isolated thunderstorms could develop. Severe potential appears low given modest moisture/limited destabilization.

..Leitman.. 01/16/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Tuesday, January 20

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Monday, January 19 potential too low
Day 5 Tuesday, January 20 potential too low
Day 6 Wednesday, January 21 potential too low
Day 7 Thursday, January 22 potential too low
Day 8 Friday, January 23 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160834 SPC AC 160834

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

DISCUSSION

Broad upper troughing will persist across much of the CONUS from the Rockies to the Eastern Seaboard during the Day 4-8 period. Surface high pressure will largely keep Gulf moisture well offshore, with cold air intrusions into the Plains and eastern U.S. precluding much in the way of thunderstorm potential.

The exception may be briefly on Day 6/Wednesday across portions of the Texas Coastal Plain vicinity. As a reinforcing shortwave upper trough ejects across the Rockies, lee surface low development over western TX will allow for very modest Gulf moisture to filter into south/southeast TX. A cold front will sweep south/southeast during the evening/overnight and isolated thunderstorms could develop. Severe potential appears low given modest moisture/limited destabilization.

..Leitman.. 01/16/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Wednesday, January 21

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Monday, January 19 potential too low
Day 5 Tuesday, January 20 potential too low
Day 6 Wednesday, January 21 potential too low
Day 7 Thursday, January 22 potential too low
Day 8 Friday, January 23 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160834 SPC AC 160834

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

DISCUSSION

Broad upper troughing will persist across much of the CONUS from the Rockies to the Eastern Seaboard during the Day 4-8 period. Surface high pressure will largely keep Gulf moisture well offshore, with cold air intrusions into the Plains and eastern U.S. precluding much in the way of thunderstorm potential.

The exception may be briefly on Day 6/Wednesday across portions of the Texas Coastal Plain vicinity. As a reinforcing shortwave upper trough ejects across the Rockies, lee surface low development over western TX will allow for very modest Gulf moisture to filter into south/southeast TX. A cold front will sweep south/southeast during the evening/overnight and isolated thunderstorms could develop. Severe potential appears low given modest moisture/limited destabilization.

..Leitman.. 01/16/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Thursday, January 22

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Monday, January 19 potential too low
Day 5 Tuesday, January 20 potential too low
Day 6 Wednesday, January 21 potential too low
Day 7 Thursday, January 22 potential too low
Day 8 Friday, January 23 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160834 SPC AC 160834

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

DISCUSSION

Broad upper troughing will persist across much of the CONUS from the Rockies to the Eastern Seaboard during the Day 4-8 period. Surface high pressure will largely keep Gulf moisture well offshore, with cold air intrusions into the Plains and eastern U.S. precluding much in the way of thunderstorm potential.

The exception may be briefly on Day 6/Wednesday across portions of the Texas Coastal Plain vicinity. As a reinforcing shortwave upper trough ejects across the Rockies, lee surface low development over western TX will allow for very modest Gulf moisture to filter into south/southeast TX. A cold front will sweep south/southeast during the evening/overnight and isolated thunderstorms could develop. Severe potential appears low given modest moisture/limited destabilization.

..Leitman.. 01/16/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Friday, January 23

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Monday, January 19 potential too low
Day 5 Tuesday, January 20 potential too low
Day 6 Wednesday, January 21 potential too low
Day 7 Thursday, January 22 potential too low
Day 8 Friday, January 23 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160834 SPC AC 160834

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

DISCUSSION

Broad upper troughing will persist across much of the CONUS from the Rockies to the Eastern Seaboard during the Day 4-8 period. Surface high pressure will largely keep Gulf moisture well offshore, with cold air intrusions into the Plains and eastern U.S. precluding much in the way of thunderstorm potential.

The exception may be briefly on Day 6/Wednesday across portions of the Texas Coastal Plain vicinity. As a reinforcing shortwave upper trough ejects across the Rockies, lee surface low development over western TX will allow for very modest Gulf moisture to filter into south/southeast TX. A cold front will sweep south/southeast during the evening/overnight and isolated thunderstorms could develop. Severe potential appears low given modest moisture/limited destabilization.

..Leitman.. 01/16/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

National Risk Overview

Friday, January 16
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: low
Saturday, January 17
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: low
Sunday, January 18
ANY SEVERE: low
Monday, January 19
ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, January 20
ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, January 21
ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, January 22
ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, January 23
ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Your Severe Outlook

Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.

Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.


Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.

 

Severe Weather Outlook Amazon link →


About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.