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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Thursday, February 19

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms, with potential for a couple tornadoes, large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible across parts of the middle Mississippi to lower Ohio Valleys today. Storms may produce strong gusts over parts of coastal central California this morning.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 190534

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN MISSOURI ACROSS MUCH OF ILLINOIS…INDIANA…KENTUCKY…OHIO

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms, with potential for a couple tornadoes, large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible across parts of the middle Mississippi to lower Ohio Valleys today. Storms may produce strong gusts over parts of coastal central California this morning.

Mid MS Valley / Midwest / OH Valley

Strong southwest flow aloft will stretch from AZ/NM across OK/TX and into the mid MS Valley and OH Valleys. As a trough begins to amplify across the central Plains, significant warming aloft will occur in the midlevels, which may impact quality of instability over the Midwest. However, low-level moisture will already be in place with 50s F dewpoints common and perhaps lower 60s F toward the lower OH Valley, which will initially support favorable instability profiles between 12-18Z today, before the stronger warming aloft occurs.

Low pressure will deepen into MO during the day and move into lower MI by 12Z Friday. A 40 kt low-level jet beneath strong midlevel winds will result in long hodographs, and, 200-300 m2/s2 SRH over much of the warm sector including eastern MO, IL, IN, KY, and OH. Strong heating over MO will result in steep lapse rates and storms are likely to form there near 12-15Z. This activity should generally spread northeastward during the day across IL and IN, perhaps extending into western KY. A couple supercells appear likely, with tornado/hail/wind potential. Behind this initial/midday activity, the rapid warming aloft may reduce potential for additional storms. However, elevated instability should support storms producing hail farther northeast in the warm advection regime across the upper OH Valley and perhaps approaching Lake Erie.

Central CA Coast

A line of shallow convection is forecast to be ongoing close to Monterey County at 12Z this morning, and this activity will translate southward along the coast through 15-18Z. Forecast soundings indicate shallow SBCAPE of 100-200 J/kg, along with moderate mean boundary-layer winds just off the surface. As such, locally strong to damaging gusts cannot be ruled out as the front pushes south.

..Jewell/Squitieri.. 02/19/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Friday, February 20

Outlook Summary

Widely scattered, but generally weak, thunderstorm activity is possible Friday east of the lower Great Lakes into Mid Atlantic and Southeast. A more substantive increase and clustering of thunderstorms appears possible across parts of the northern Gulf Coast states late Friday evening into early Saturday, which may pose at least some risk for severe hail and localized strong, but generally sub-severe wind gusts.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 190600

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI…ALABAMA…GEORGIA AND PERHAPS ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TENNESSEE

### SUMMARY

Widely scattered, but generally weak, thunderstorm activity is possible Friday east of the lower Great Lakes into Mid Atlantic and Southeast. A more substantive increase and clustering of thunderstorms appears possible across parts of the northern Gulf Coast states late Friday evening into early Saturday, which may pose at least some risk for severe hail and localized strong, but generally sub-severe wind gusts.

Discussion

Models continue to indicate that mid/upper flow will undergo renewed amplification across the central into eastern mid-latitude Pacific through this period. This is likely to include a significant short wave trough digging south-southeast of the Gulf of Alaska (roughly along 140W longitude), to the east of building ridging across and north-northwest of the Aleutians. Farther east, mid-level ridging is forecast to build inland of the Pacific coast, with remnant larger-scale downstream troughing developing eastward across the Rockies through Mississippi Valley.

There remains spread among model output concerning the continuing strength of a short wave perturbation, which earlier emerged from this troughing, after it reaches southwestern portions of the Great Lakes region by the beginning of the period. It is generally forecast to become sheared and weaken as it progresses to the south of a blocking mid-level high centered near southern Hudson Bay, and downstream troughing digging into the Canadian Maritimes and northern New England. However, it appears possible that it may maintain considerable strength east-northeastward across the lower Great Lakes region through the day Friday, while its associated occluding surface cyclone weakens across Michigan.

It continues to appear that secondary surface cyclogenesis will be slow/subdued from the lee of the Blue Ridge across and east-northeast of the northern Mid Atlantic, before perhaps undergoing more substantive deepening offshore Friday night. The trailing surface frontal zone probably will tend to stall across the Carolinas, while retreating northward near the southern edge of the strong westerlies across the Gulf Coast states by 12Z Saturday, in advance of a short wave perturbation emerging from the Southwest.

Further low-level moistening associated with return flow off the Gulf is probable along and south of the front. However, warm layers aloft, near the northwestern periphery of mid/upper subtropical ridging centered across the Bahamas/Caribbean, may tend inhibit destabilization and thunderstorm development through much of Friday into Friday evening.

Gulf Coast States

While mid/upper forcing for ascent associated with the short wave trough emerging from the Southwest may remain well to the cool side of the surface frontal zone, it appears that strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection will support potential for increasing thunderstorm development by late Friday evening and continue overnight. There appears a consensus among latest model output that this will focus across parts of northern Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia by 12Z Saturday. While this is likely to become rooted above a cool, stable near-surface layer, forecast soundings indicate that an initially warm/dry capping layer above the moist layer will contribute to convectively unstable thermodynamic profiles, which may become conducive to severe hail, in the presence of strong cloud bearing layer shear. Potential for severe gusts appears low, but as activity strengthens and perhaps organizes overnight, gusty surface winds may accompany activity.

..Kerr.. 02/19/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Saturday, February 21

Outlook Summary

Strong thunderstorms may overspread parts of the eastern Gulf and south Atlantic coast states Saturday, accompanied by at least some risk for damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 190830

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA…CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA…SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI

### SUMMARY

Strong thunderstorms may overspread parts of the eastern Gulf and south Atlantic coast states Saturday, accompanied by at least some risk for damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail.

Discussion

Latest model output continues to indicate the evolution of a broad mid-level cyclonic circulation across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific by early Saturday, with a number of vigorous short wave perturbations pivoting around its center, generally settling near 44N/140W. At least a couple of these may already be providing support for surface cyclogenesis, including one cyclone which may occlude while migrating around its northeastern through northern periphery during the day Saturday. It appears that a trailing cyclone may undergo substantive strengthening before occluding, while migrating around the eastern through northeastern periphery of the mid-level low Saturday through Saturday night.

Downstream, as amplification of large-scale mid-level ridging proceeds Saturday across the Rockies, digging short wave perturbations to its east are forecast to contribute to the amplification of larger-scale troughing east of the middle and lower Mississippi Valley. This may be accompanied by further development of a frontal wave offshore of the Carolina coast by 12Z Sunday, while cold surface ridging builds southward through much of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley.

Northern Pacific coast

The offshore cyclogenesis may be accompanied by intensifying southerly lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields near northern Pacific coastal areas by late Saturday night, as a frontal precipitation band approaches or progresses a bit inland of coastal areas. However, with the mid-level cold core supportive of thermodynamic profiles conducive to thunderstorm activity likely to remain well offshore through this period, the potential for severe storms appears negligible.

Southeast

Aided by forcing for ascent associated with low-level warm advection, vigorous organizing convection may be ongoing at 12Z Saturday, mainly near or to the cool side of the initially quasi-stationary frontal zone across parts of central Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia. As this forcing develops eastward, and daytime heating contributes to modest boundary-layer destabilization to the south/southeast of the front, there appears potential for convection to develop and intensify to the warm side of the front, in the presence of strong and sheared westerly mean flow, including 30-60+ kt in the 850-500 mb layer. This may be accompanied by further organization and increasing potential for strong to severe surface gusts while spreading toward the Carolina/Georgia coast and northern Florida through early Saturday evening. It is possible that severe probabilities could be increased further in later outlook updates for this period.

..Kerr.. 02/19/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Sunday, February 22

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190954 SPC AC 190954

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

DISCUSSION

Downstream of initially amplified mid/upper ridging forecast to expand east of the Rockies through the Mississippi Valley, models indicate that troughing will amplify further, into and across the southern Atlantic Seaboard late this coming weekend into early next week. As it does, much more substantive cyclogenesis appears likely to ensue offshore of the southern Mid Atlantic coast, toward the western north Atlantic, while cold surface ridging builds southward through much of the Gulf Basin before gradually weakening.

Around the same time, and thereafter, guidance indicates that the blocked regime across the central into eastern mid-latitude Pacific will become suppressed. It appears that the initially broad offshore cyclonic mid-level circulation will become more compact, and remain offshore, while flow inland of the Pacific coast through the Atlantic Seaboard trends less amplified and generally west-northwesterly through the middle to latter portion of next week.

Beneath this regime, surface troughing may initially deepen across the Great Plains, before a cold front, associated with a short wave perturbation digging from the higher latitudes, advances south of the Canadian/U.S. border through much of the central and eastern U.S. by the end of the period. However, even by that time, it appears that Gulf boundary-layer moistening and inland return flow will be too limited to support an appreciable risk for severe storms.

..Kerr.. 02/19/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, February 23

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190954 SPC AC 190954

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

DISCUSSION

Downstream of initially amplified mid/upper ridging forecast to expand east of the Rockies through the Mississippi Valley, models indicate that troughing will amplify further, into and across the southern Atlantic Seaboard late this coming weekend into early next week. As it does, much more substantive cyclogenesis appears likely to ensue offshore of the southern Mid Atlantic coast, toward the western north Atlantic, while cold surface ridging builds southward through much of the Gulf Basin before gradually weakening.

Around the same time, and thereafter, guidance indicates that the blocked regime across the central into eastern mid-latitude Pacific will become suppressed. It appears that the initially broad offshore cyclonic mid-level circulation will become more compact, and remain offshore, while flow inland of the Pacific coast through the Atlantic Seaboard trends less amplified and generally west-northwesterly through the middle to latter portion of next week.

Beneath this regime, surface troughing may initially deepen across the Great Plains, before a cold front, associated with a short wave perturbation digging from the higher latitudes, advances south of the Canadian/U.S. border through much of the central and eastern U.S. by the end of the period. However, even by that time, it appears that Gulf boundary-layer moistening and inland return flow will be too limited to support an appreciable risk for severe storms.

..Kerr.. 02/19/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

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Outlook for Tuesday, February 24

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190954 SPC AC 190954

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

DISCUSSION

Downstream of initially amplified mid/upper ridging forecast to expand east of the Rockies through the Mississippi Valley, models indicate that troughing will amplify further, into and across the southern Atlantic Seaboard late this coming weekend into early next week. As it does, much more substantive cyclogenesis appears likely to ensue offshore of the southern Mid Atlantic coast, toward the western north Atlantic, while cold surface ridging builds southward through much of the Gulf Basin before gradually weakening.

Around the same time, and thereafter, guidance indicates that the blocked regime across the central into eastern mid-latitude Pacific will become suppressed. It appears that the initially broad offshore cyclonic mid-level circulation will become more compact, and remain offshore, while flow inland of the Pacific coast through the Atlantic Seaboard trends less amplified and generally west-northwesterly through the middle to latter portion of next week.

Beneath this regime, surface troughing may initially deepen across the Great Plains, before a cold front, associated with a short wave perturbation digging from the higher latitudes, advances south of the Canadian/U.S. border through much of the central and eastern U.S. by the end of the period. However, even by that time, it appears that Gulf boundary-layer moistening and inland return flow will be too limited to support an appreciable risk for severe storms.

..Kerr.. 02/19/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

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Outlook for Wednesday, February 25

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190954 SPC AC 190954

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

DISCUSSION

Downstream of initially amplified mid/upper ridging forecast to expand east of the Rockies through the Mississippi Valley, models indicate that troughing will amplify further, into and across the southern Atlantic Seaboard late this coming weekend into early next week. As it does, much more substantive cyclogenesis appears likely to ensue offshore of the southern Mid Atlantic coast, toward the western north Atlantic, while cold surface ridging builds southward through much of the Gulf Basin before gradually weakening.

Around the same time, and thereafter, guidance indicates that the blocked regime across the central into eastern mid-latitude Pacific will become suppressed. It appears that the initially broad offshore cyclonic mid-level circulation will become more compact, and remain offshore, while flow inland of the Pacific coast through the Atlantic Seaboard trends less amplified and generally west-northwesterly through the middle to latter portion of next week.

Beneath this regime, surface troughing may initially deepen across the Great Plains, before a cold front, associated with a short wave perturbation digging from the higher latitudes, advances south of the Canadian/U.S. border through much of the central and eastern U.S. by the end of the period. However, even by that time, it appears that Gulf boundary-layer moistening and inland return flow will be too limited to support an appreciable risk for severe storms.

..Kerr.. 02/19/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

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Outlook for Thursday, February 26

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190954 SPC AC 190954

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

DISCUSSION

Downstream of initially amplified mid/upper ridging forecast to expand east of the Rockies through the Mississippi Valley, models indicate that troughing will amplify further, into and across the southern Atlantic Seaboard late this coming weekend into early next week. As it does, much more substantive cyclogenesis appears likely to ensue offshore of the southern Mid Atlantic coast, toward the western north Atlantic, while cold surface ridging builds southward through much of the Gulf Basin before gradually weakening.

Around the same time, and thereafter, guidance indicates that the blocked regime across the central into eastern mid-latitude Pacific will become suppressed. It appears that the initially broad offshore cyclonic mid-level circulation will become more compact, and remain offshore, while flow inland of the Pacific coast through the Atlantic Seaboard trends less amplified and generally west-northwesterly through the middle to latter portion of next week.

Beneath this regime, surface troughing may initially deepen across the Great Plains, before a cold front, associated with a short wave perturbation digging from the higher latitudes, advances south of the Canadian/U.S. border through much of the central and eastern U.S. by the end of the period. However, even by that time, it appears that Gulf boundary-layer moistening and inland return flow will be too limited to support an appreciable risk for severe storms.

..Kerr.. 02/19/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

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National Risk Overview

Thursday, February 19

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Friday, February 20

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 5%

WIND: low

Saturday, February 21

ANY SEVERE: 5%

Sunday, February 22

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Monday, February 23

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Tuesday, February 24

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Wednesday, February 25

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Thursday, February 26

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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