Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, April 30
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail will be possible this evening into tonight across parts of southwest and south-central Texas.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 300533
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026
Valid 301200Z - 011200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail will be possible this evening into tonight across parts of southwest and south-central Texas.
Southwest and South-central Texas
At mid-levels, a low will move across northern Mexico this afternoon into tonight, as a 60 to 70 knot mid-level jet ejects eastward across the southern Plains. In response, large-scale ascent will increase over parts of southwest Texas this evening, supporting scattered thunderstorm development. Thunderstorm coverage will increase overnight as a cluster of convection moves eastward into south-central Texas. These storms will be located to the north of a quasi-stationary front, and will be elevated in nature. Late evening forecast soundings in southwest Texas have steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (exceeding 7.5 C/km), with effective shear in the 50 to 60 knot range. This environment will likely support an isolated large hail threat, mainly if a supercell can develop.
..Broyles/Moore.. 04/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Friday, May 1
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe thunderstorm development is possible across middle Texas coastal areas, parts of southeastern Louisiana and the western Florida Panhandle Friday afternoon through Friday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 300454
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL AREAS…SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA…THE FLORIDA
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe thunderstorm development is possible across middle Texas coastal areas, parts of southeastern Louisiana and the western Florida Panhandle Friday afternoon through Friday night.
Discussion
Latest model output offers little change concerning the forecast evolution of the large-scale pattern through this period. Substantive amplification within the split westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific still appears probable Friday through Friday night, including building ridging at mid-levels along an axis west of 140W longitude into northwestern British Columbia, and on a larger-scale eastward across the Canadian Prairies and northern U.S. Rockies. Within the larger-scale ridging, a modest mid-level trough and developing embedded low are forecast to slowly dig to the west of the U.S. Pacific coast. At the same time, broad upper ridging may gradually build across the subtropical eastern Pacific toward Baja California.
Downstream, a confluent regime will be maintained across and east of the Rockies, and likely become enhanced at mid-levels across the southern Great Plains through lower Mississippi Valley, as short wave troughing digs to the southwest of an elongated area of lower heights slowly shifting eastward through the Ontario/Quebec/Great Lakes and Northeast vicinity.
A short wave perturbation reaching the Texas Big Bend vicinity by 12Z Friday probably will undergo shearing as it progresses through the confluence to the south of the digging trough. However, as a reinforcing cool surge noses southward to the lee of the southern Rockies, across and south/southeast of the Texas Big Bend, guidance suggests that forcing for ascent may remain sufficient to support a developing wave along a stalled frontal zone, across middle Texas coastal areas through the eastern Gulf coast vicinity Friday afternoon through Friday night.
Middle Texas coastal plain through western Florida Panhandle
Large-scale forcing for ascent, aided by warm advection along and to
the cool side of the surface front, may support a swath of mostly weak thunderstorm activity across much of the Gulf into southern Atlantic coast Friday through Friday night. Forecast soundings continue to indicate thermodynamic profiles with little potential to support severe hail and wind, except perhaps in immediate proximity to the surface front. Warm elevated mixed-layer air, particularly across parts of Deep South Texas, may tend to inhibit thunderstorm initiation to the south of the front.
Based on latest model output, severe weather potential for this period appears a bit more conditional, dependent upon both the evolution of the surface wave and the degree of destabilization along the frontal zone, which remain uncertain. However, it still appears possible that strengthening deep-layer shear and forcing for ascent near the frontal wave could support isolated supercell development across the middle Texas coastal plain by Friday afternoon, across southeastern Louisiana parishes by late Friday evening, and into the western Florida Panhandle toward 12Z Saturday.
..Kerr.. 04/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Saturday, May 2
Outlook Summary
Strong storms may impact parts of northern Florida and southern Georgia Saturday with potential for some of this activity to become severe.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 300728
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN GEORGIA.
### SUMMARY
Strong storms may impact parts of northern Florida and southern Georgia Saturday with potential for some of this activity to become severe.
Discussion
Within amplified ridging across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific by the outset of the period, models indicate that a mid-level high may begin to form over the northeastern Pacific, roughly near 50N/140W, while an evolving low to its south digs offshore of the California coast. Downstream flow is forecast to remain broadly confluent across and east of the Rockies, with one notable short wave perturbation pivoting east of the Ozark Plateau through the Mid Atlantic coast by 12Z Sunday. This likely will be preceded by a shearing impulse, emerging from the subtropical eastern Pacific today, across the eastern Gulf Coast states through southern Mid Atlantic by late Saturday afternoon.
In lower-levels, models indicate that these developments will be accompanied significant surface cyclogenesis offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard. It remains a bit unclear whether this will initiate from a developing frontal wave initially offshore of the Carolina coast, before migrating northeastward, or in association with continuing development of a wave initially forming Friday near/offshore of the lower to middle Texas coast.
Regardless, in association with the wave approaching from the Gulf, a corridor of pre-frontal boundary-layer destabilization appears possible across the Florida Big Bend vicinity through southern Georgia/northern Florida Atlantic coastal areas by mid to late Saturday afternoon. Coinciding with strengthening southwesterly to westerly wind fields, including 30-70+ kts in the 850-500 mb layer, if this occurs, it is possible that the environment could become conducive to severe thunderstorm development. This may include evolving supercell structures, and perhaps a small organizing convective system.
..Kerr.. 04/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Sunday, May 3
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, May 2 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Sunday, May 3 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, May 4 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, May 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, May 6 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290858 SPC AC 290858
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range guidance, in particular the ECENS and GEFS, generally maintains forecast trends of prior runs concerning the evolution of the large-scale features within the prevailing split flow through this weekend into early next week. It appears that at least a transient blocking high may evolve within amplified ridging offshore of the British Columbia and adjacent Pacific Northwest coast. To its south-southeast a notable mid-level low is forecast to evolve within initial troughing slowly digging toward the U.S. Pacific coast, with the low bottoming out offshore of the central/ southern California coast by early next week.
Downstream, it appears that a broad area of lower mid-level heights will be maintained, with lowest heights perhaps reforming west-northwestward from southwestern Quebec toward southern Hudson Bay/northwestern Ontario, contributing to the maintenance of a confluent regime across and east of the Rockies.
Shorter wavelength developments within this pattern remain more uncertain, particularly by the early to middle portion of next week, when it appears that the offshore low will begin to progress inland across California and the southern Sierra Nevada. Depending on the timing of the inland progressing mid-level cold core with respect to diurnal heating, this could be accompanied by relatively minor severe weather potential across parts of the San Joaquin Valley next Monday or Tuesday.
Downstream, southerly moist return flow into at least the southern through central Great Plains, associated with deepening lee surface troughing, may contribute to destabilization beneath building mid-level ridging across and east of the southern Rockies. This might be accompanied by increasing potential for at least widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development on Tuesday.
Guidance suggests potential for more widespread organized severe thunderstorm development could increase by Wednesday, but much will depend on short wave developments which become rather uncertain by this time.
..Kerr.. 04/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, May 4
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, May 2 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Sunday, May 3 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, May 4 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, May 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, May 6 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290858 SPC AC 290858
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range guidance, in particular the ECENS and GEFS, generally maintains forecast trends of prior runs concerning the evolution of the large-scale features within the prevailing split flow through this weekend into early next week. It appears that at least a transient blocking high may evolve within amplified ridging offshore of the British Columbia and adjacent Pacific Northwest coast. To its south-southeast a notable mid-level low is forecast to evolve within initial troughing slowly digging toward the U.S. Pacific coast, with the low bottoming out offshore of the central/ southern California coast by early next week.
Downstream, it appears that a broad area of lower mid-level heights will be maintained, with lowest heights perhaps reforming west-northwestward from southwestern Quebec toward southern Hudson Bay/northwestern Ontario, contributing to the maintenance of a confluent regime across and east of the Rockies.
Shorter wavelength developments within this pattern remain more uncertain, particularly by the early to middle portion of next week, when it appears that the offshore low will begin to progress inland across California and the southern Sierra Nevada. Depending on the timing of the inland progressing mid-level cold core with respect to diurnal heating, this could be accompanied by relatively minor severe weather potential across parts of the San Joaquin Valley next Monday or Tuesday.
Downstream, southerly moist return flow into at least the southern through central Great Plains, associated with deepening lee surface troughing, may contribute to destabilization beneath building mid-level ridging across and east of the southern Rockies. This might be accompanied by increasing potential for at least widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development on Tuesday.
Guidance suggests potential for more widespread organized severe thunderstorm development could increase by Wednesday, but much will depend on short wave developments which become rather uncertain by this time.
..Kerr.. 04/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, May 5
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, May 2 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Sunday, May 3 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, May 4 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, May 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, May 6 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290858 SPC AC 290858
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range guidance, in particular the ECENS and GEFS, generally maintains forecast trends of prior runs concerning the evolution of the large-scale features within the prevailing split flow through this weekend into early next week. It appears that at least a transient blocking high may evolve within amplified ridging offshore of the British Columbia and adjacent Pacific Northwest coast. To its south-southeast a notable mid-level low is forecast to evolve within initial troughing slowly digging toward the U.S. Pacific coast, with the low bottoming out offshore of the central/ southern California coast by early next week.
Downstream, it appears that a broad area of lower mid-level heights will be maintained, with lowest heights perhaps reforming west-northwestward from southwestern Quebec toward southern Hudson Bay/northwestern Ontario, contributing to the maintenance of a confluent regime across and east of the Rockies.
Shorter wavelength developments within this pattern remain more uncertain, particularly by the early to middle portion of next week, when it appears that the offshore low will begin to progress inland across California and the southern Sierra Nevada. Depending on the timing of the inland progressing mid-level cold core with respect to diurnal heating, this could be accompanied by relatively minor severe weather potential across parts of the San Joaquin Valley next Monday or Tuesday.
Downstream, southerly moist return flow into at least the southern through central Great Plains, associated with deepening lee surface troughing, may contribute to destabilization beneath building mid-level ridging across and east of the southern Rockies. This might be accompanied by increasing potential for at least widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development on Tuesday.
Guidance suggests potential for more widespread organized severe thunderstorm development could increase by Wednesday, but much will depend on short wave developments which become rather uncertain by this time.
..Kerr.. 04/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, May 6
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, May 2 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Sunday, May 3 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, May 4 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, May 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, May 6 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290858 SPC AC 290858
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range guidance, in particular the ECENS and GEFS, generally maintains forecast trends of prior runs concerning the evolution of the large-scale features within the prevailing split flow through this weekend into early next week. It appears that at least a transient blocking high may evolve within amplified ridging offshore of the British Columbia and adjacent Pacific Northwest coast. To its south-southeast a notable mid-level low is forecast to evolve within initial troughing slowly digging toward the U.S. Pacific coast, with the low bottoming out offshore of the central/ southern California coast by early next week.
Downstream, it appears that a broad area of lower mid-level heights will be maintained, with lowest heights perhaps reforming west-northwestward from southwestern Quebec toward southern Hudson Bay/northwestern Ontario, contributing to the maintenance of a confluent regime across and east of the Rockies.
Shorter wavelength developments within this pattern remain more uncertain, particularly by the early to middle portion of next week, when it appears that the offshore low will begin to progress inland across California and the southern Sierra Nevada. Depending on the timing of the inland progressing mid-level cold core with respect to diurnal heating, this could be accompanied by relatively minor severe weather potential across parts of the San Joaquin Valley next Monday or Tuesday.
Downstream, southerly moist return flow into at least the southern through central Great Plains, associated with deepening lee surface troughing, may contribute to destabilization beneath building mid-level ridging across and east of the southern Rockies. This might be accompanied by increasing potential for at least widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development on Tuesday.
Guidance suggests potential for more widespread organized severe thunderstorm development could increase by Wednesday, but much will depend on short wave developments which become rather uncertain by this time.
..Kerr.. 04/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, April 30
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: low
- Friday, May 1
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Saturday, May 2
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Sunday, May 3
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, May 4
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, May 5
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, May 6
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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