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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Friday, January 2
Saturday, January 3
Sunday, January 4
Monday, January 5
Tuesday, January 6
Wednesday, January 7
Thursday, January 8
Friday, January 9

Outlook for Friday, January 2

Outlook Summary

No severe threat is expected across the U.S. through tonight.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 030056

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Fri Jan 02 2026

Valid 030100Z - 031200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

No severe threat is expected across the U.S. through tonight.

DISCUSSION

A shortwave trough will move through the Southeast tonight. Ahead of this feature, isolated thunderstorms may occur across parts of Alabama, Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. Further west, a shortwave trough will move southeastward across the southern Plains this evening. A small cluster of thunderstorms near the trough will likely persist for a couple more hours in the central and eastern Texas Panhandle. In the western U.S., a few thunderstorms may develop in California tonight ahead of a mid-level trough moving through the eastern Pacific. No severe threat is expected across the U.S. through daybreak on Saturday.

..Broyles.. 01/03/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Saturday, January 3

Outlook Summary

Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast on Saturday, and the Sacramento/northern San Joaquin Valleys to coastal northern California-southwest Oregon in the afternoon/early evening.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 5%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 021725

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND PARTS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE OREGON COAST

### SUMMARY

Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast on Saturday, and the Sacramento/northern San Joaquin Valleys to coastal northern California-southwest Oregon in the afternoon/early evening.

Southeast

Late-morning surface observations across the TX/LA/MS region show the early stages of moisture return ahead of a gradually deepening surface low to the west across the southern Plains. The ejection of a low-amplitude mid-level perturbation (noted in water-vapor imagery over the Four Corners region as of 17 UTC) will lead to modest strengthening and an eastward progression of the surface low into the Southeast states through Saturday evening.

Thunderstorms will likely develop within the warm/moist advection regime and along a weak surface trough/cold front by mid/late afternoon across portions of AL, GA, and northern FL. A plume of low to mid-60s dewpoints will likely become established by late afternoon across the FL Panhandle into southern GA, and should support MLCAPE values upwards of 1000 J/kg, though ongoing showers/thunderstorms may modulate overall destabilization to some degree. 50-knot mid-level flow will support adequate deep-layer shear for organized convection, including the potential for semi-discrete supercells before gradual upscale growth occurs through late afternoon/evening. Some severe wind/hail and tornado threat is expected to materialize, but uncertainty regarding the degree of destabilization within the warm sector and storm mode limits confidence for higher risk probabilities. This uncertainty is reflected in 12z CAM/HREF guidance, which depicts only modest signals for intense convection. That said, a more focused corridor of severe risk may emerge along the FL/GA line where the convective environment should be relatively most favorable for supercells.

Central Valley into the CA/OR Coasts

A strong upper trough off the West Coast is expected to move inland over the next 24 hours. Multiple bands of showers and thunderstorms will likely spread across northern CA and OR through peak heating when modest low-level moisture (low 50s dewpoints) will likely support a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE. Southerly low-level flow through the Central Valley will maintain some low-level hodograph curvature that may be favorable for a brief tornado or two. Additionally, 40-45 flow between the 1-3 km layer may augment downdraft winds and support sporadic wind damage and perhaps a few severe gusts.

..Moore.. 01/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z

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Outlook for Sunday, January 4

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 021924

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 PM CST Fri Jan 02 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night.

Synopsis

A mid-level wave traversing the eastern CONUS at the beginning of the period will continue to shift off the East Coast through the day Sunday. A trailing cold front pushing southward along the FL Peninsula will likely support shallow convective showers along the coasts, but warm mid-level temperatures coincident with dry air will limit the potential for deep convection and lightning production. Across the West, broad southwesterly flow will persist along the coast and into the Great Basin. Thunderstorm potential will most likely be confined to central CA and perhaps along the northern CA and OR/WA coasts where cool mid-level temperatures will overspread modest low-level moisture. Weaker low-level wind profiles compared to D2/Saturday should limit the potential for organized convection. Sporadic lightning flashes appear possible further inland across the northern Great Basin given broad-scale ascent and some degree of mid-level cooling, but the signal for appreciable MUCAPE among all guidance is too limited to introduce additional thunder areas.

..Moore.. 01/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z

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Outlook for Monday, January 5

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Monday, January 5 potential too low
Day 5 Tuesday, January 6 potential too low
Day 6 Wednesday, January 7 predictability too low
Day 7 Thursday, January 8 predictability too low
Day 8 Friday, January 9 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020939 SPC AC 020939

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

DISCUSSION

Convective potential appears likely to increase across at least the South-Central States, centered on eastern TX to the Lower MS Valley mid to late week. While day-to-day predictability is low, the broader signal hints at potentially multiple days of at least low-probability severe during D6-9/Wednesday-Saturday.

Initial concern is with the downstream evolution of a lower-latitude shortwave trough across Baja CA and northwest Mexico early in the week. Guidance continues to struggle with spatiotemporal aspects of this wave by mid-week. But potential exists for this wave to interact with a modifying warm-moist sector from the western Gulf into the South-Central States. Faster guidance indicates severe-storm potential may commence by late Wednesday.

In the wake of the initial shortwave trough, guidance consensus suggests that a broad upper trough should evolve across the West late week. This may yield an expansive swath of fast mid-level southwesterlies from the southern High Plains to the Northeast. Given a lack of frontal intrusion into the northwest Gulf with the lead wave, seasonably rich low-level moisture may overlap a portion of this fast flow regime around Friday-Saturday. Latest NSSL GEFS ML V1.2 probs appear reasonable with depictions of 5 percent peak probs on D6-7, followed by 10 percent areas on D8-9.

..Grams.. 01/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, January 6

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Monday, January 5 potential too low
Day 5 Tuesday, January 6 potential too low
Day 6 Wednesday, January 7 predictability too low
Day 7 Thursday, January 8 predictability too low
Day 8 Friday, January 9 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020939 SPC AC 020939

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

DISCUSSION

Convective potential appears likely to increase across at least the South-Central States, centered on eastern TX to the Lower MS Valley mid to late week. While day-to-day predictability is low, the broader signal hints at potentially multiple days of at least low-probability severe during D6-9/Wednesday-Saturday.

Initial concern is with the downstream evolution of a lower-latitude shortwave trough across Baja CA and northwest Mexico early in the week. Guidance continues to struggle with spatiotemporal aspects of this wave by mid-week. But potential exists for this wave to interact with a modifying warm-moist sector from the western Gulf into the South-Central States. Faster guidance indicates severe-storm potential may commence by late Wednesday.

In the wake of the initial shortwave trough, guidance consensus suggests that a broad upper trough should evolve across the West late week. This may yield an expansive swath of fast mid-level southwesterlies from the southern High Plains to the Northeast. Given a lack of frontal intrusion into the northwest Gulf with the lead wave, seasonably rich low-level moisture may overlap a portion of this fast flow regime around Friday-Saturday. Latest NSSL GEFS ML V1.2 probs appear reasonable with depictions of 5 percent peak probs on D6-7, followed by 10 percent areas on D8-9.

..Grams.. 01/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Wednesday, January 7

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Monday, January 5 potential too low
Day 5 Tuesday, January 6 potential too low
Day 6 Wednesday, January 7 predictability too low
Day 7 Thursday, January 8 predictability too low
Day 8 Friday, January 9 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020939 SPC AC 020939

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

DISCUSSION

Convective potential appears likely to increase across at least the South-Central States, centered on eastern TX to the Lower MS Valley mid to late week. While day-to-day predictability is low, the broader signal hints at potentially multiple days of at least low-probability severe during D6-9/Wednesday-Saturday.

Initial concern is with the downstream evolution of a lower-latitude shortwave trough across Baja CA and northwest Mexico early in the week. Guidance continues to struggle with spatiotemporal aspects of this wave by mid-week. But potential exists for this wave to interact with a modifying warm-moist sector from the western Gulf into the South-Central States. Faster guidance indicates severe-storm potential may commence by late Wednesday.

In the wake of the initial shortwave trough, guidance consensus suggests that a broad upper trough should evolve across the West late week. This may yield an expansive swath of fast mid-level southwesterlies from the southern High Plains to the Northeast. Given a lack of frontal intrusion into the northwest Gulf with the lead wave, seasonably rich low-level moisture may overlap a portion of this fast flow regime around Friday-Saturday. Latest NSSL GEFS ML V1.2 probs appear reasonable with depictions of 5 percent peak probs on D6-7, followed by 10 percent areas on D8-9.

..Grams.. 01/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Thursday, January 8

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Monday, January 5 potential too low
Day 5 Tuesday, January 6 potential too low
Day 6 Wednesday, January 7 predictability too low
Day 7 Thursday, January 8 predictability too low
Day 8 Friday, January 9 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020939 SPC AC 020939

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

DISCUSSION

Convective potential appears likely to increase across at least the South-Central States, centered on eastern TX to the Lower MS Valley mid to late week. While day-to-day predictability is low, the broader signal hints at potentially multiple days of at least low-probability severe during D6-9/Wednesday-Saturday.

Initial concern is with the downstream evolution of a lower-latitude shortwave trough across Baja CA and northwest Mexico early in the week. Guidance continues to struggle with spatiotemporal aspects of this wave by mid-week. But potential exists for this wave to interact with a modifying warm-moist sector from the western Gulf into the South-Central States. Faster guidance indicates severe-storm potential may commence by late Wednesday.

In the wake of the initial shortwave trough, guidance consensus suggests that a broad upper trough should evolve across the West late week. This may yield an expansive swath of fast mid-level southwesterlies from the southern High Plains to the Northeast. Given a lack of frontal intrusion into the northwest Gulf with the lead wave, seasonably rich low-level moisture may overlap a portion of this fast flow regime around Friday-Saturday. Latest NSSL GEFS ML V1.2 probs appear reasonable with depictions of 5 percent peak probs on D6-7, followed by 10 percent areas on D8-9.

..Grams.. 01/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Friday, January 9

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Monday, January 5 potential too low
Day 5 Tuesday, January 6 potential too low
Day 6 Wednesday, January 7 predictability too low
Day 7 Thursday, January 8 predictability too low
Day 8 Friday, January 9 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020939 SPC AC 020939

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

DISCUSSION

Convective potential appears likely to increase across at least the South-Central States, centered on eastern TX to the Lower MS Valley mid to late week. While day-to-day predictability is low, the broader signal hints at potentially multiple days of at least low-probability severe during D6-9/Wednesday-Saturday.

Initial concern is with the downstream evolution of a lower-latitude shortwave trough across Baja CA and northwest Mexico early in the week. Guidance continues to struggle with spatiotemporal aspects of this wave by mid-week. But potential exists for this wave to interact with a modifying warm-moist sector from the western Gulf into the South-Central States. Faster guidance indicates severe-storm potential may commence by late Wednesday.

In the wake of the initial shortwave trough, guidance consensus suggests that a broad upper trough should evolve across the West late week. This may yield an expansive swath of fast mid-level southwesterlies from the southern High Plains to the Northeast. Given a lack of frontal intrusion into the northwest Gulf with the lead wave, seasonably rich low-level moisture may overlap a portion of this fast flow regime around Friday-Saturday. Latest NSSL GEFS ML V1.2 probs appear reasonable with depictions of 5 percent peak probs on D6-7, followed by 10 percent areas on D8-9.

..Grams.. 01/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

National Risk Overview

Friday, January 2
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: low
Saturday, January 3
TORNADO: 2%
HAIL: 5%
WIND: 5%
Sunday, January 4
ANY SEVERE: low
Monday, January 5
ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, January 6
ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, January 7
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, January 8
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, January 9
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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