Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, July 8
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this evening from parts of the central Plains into the mid Missouri and upper Mississippi Valleys. Isolated severe gusts may also occur in parts of the northern High Plains, in eastern North Carolina, and in southeast Arizona.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 30%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 090100
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026
Valid 090100Z - 091200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this evening from parts of the central Plains into the mid Missouri and upper Mississippi Valleys. Isolated severe gusts may also occur in parts of the northern High Plains, in eastern North Carolina, and in southeast Arizona.
Central Plains/Mid Missouri and Upper Mississippi Valleys
At mid-levels, a subtle shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over the central High Plains. Ahead of this feature, a moist airmass is located from the central Plains into upper Mississippi Valley, where surface dewpoints range from the 60s F west to the lower to mid 70s F east. A front is located from southern Nebraska east-northeastward into central and northeast Iowa, where low-level convergence is maximized and scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are ongoing. Ahead of the front, the RAP has an axis of moderate instability with MLCAPE from 2000 to 3500 J/kg. The instability, combined with moderate deep-layer shear and steep low to mid-level lapse rates, will support a threat for severe wind gusts and hail. The threat will be concentrated along and just ahead of the more intense short line segments.
Further west into the central High Plains, a surface trough is located from western Kansas extending northwestward into southwest Nebraska. Low-level convergence is maximized further west into eastern Colorado and southeast Wyoming, where an outflow boundary is located and a broken line segment is ongoing. Ahead of the storms, winds are backed to the east and surface dewpoints are in the mid to upper 50s F. This is contributing to moderate instability. In addition, the WSR-88D VWP at Denver has 40 knots of 0-6 km shear, suggesting that supercells and organized line segments will be possible. The RAP also shows 0-3 km lapse rates exceeding 7.5 C/km. This environment will support a potential for severe wind gusts this evening. A swath of wind damage will be possible across eastern Colorado, northwest Kansas and southern Nebraska, once a more sustained cold pool becomes established.
Northern High Plains/Intermountain West
A mid-level shortwave ridge will move through the northern High Plains this evening. Beneath the ridge, a pocket of moderate instability is located across central and northeast Montana where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3500 J/kg range. To the southwest of the instability max, thunderstorms are developing in the higher terrain of central Montana. These storms will move eastward into the stronger instability. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates will support an isolated threat for severe wind gusts.
Eastern North Carolina
A very moist airmass is located over eastern North Carolina, where surface dewpoints are in the lower to mid 70s F, and the RAP has a pocket of moderate instability (MLCAPE of 2000 to 3000 J/kg). Scattered thunderstorms have developed near this pocket of instability. Low-level lapse rates will remain steep for a couple more hours suggesting potential for isolated severe gusts.
Southeast Arizona
The latest RAP has an south-to-north axis of instability analyzed across southeast Arizona. Near this axis, low-level convergence is maximized and 0-3 km lapse rates are very steep. Thunderstorms that develop near this axis of instability may produce a few severe wind gusts early this evening.
..Broyles.. 07/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Thursday, July 9
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for strong gusts and/or large hail are possible across portions of the northern and central Plains, the Lower Missouri to Lower Ohio Valleys, and across the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday afternoon and evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 081701
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS…THE LOWER MO AND OH VALLEYS…AND THE MID-ATLANTIC
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for strong gusts and/or large hail are possible across portions of the northern and central Plains, the Lower Missouri to Lower Ohio Valleys, and across the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday afternoon and evening.
Lower MO to Lower OH Valleys
One or more MCVs are forecast to be located over the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley vicinity Thursday morning. As these features migrate eastward through the day, locally enhanced vertical shear will combine with a very moist and strongly unstable airmass to provide support for widely scattered organized severe convection. Thunderstorm clusters will mainly pose a risk for damaging winds and isolated hail. An initial cluster may develop across eastern MO/southern IL and shift east along the Lower OH Valley. Some guidance suggests a second cluster may develop across southern MO and move east/southeast across the Mid-South vicinity and eventually into TN overnight. An increasing southerly low-level jet during the evening could maintain some severe risk even into the nighttime hours across the Mid-South into TN and severe probabilities have been expanded some across this area to reflect this potential. Otherwise, the forecast remains largely similar to the previous Day 2 outlook.
Northern/Central Plains
Several shortwave impulses are forecast to migrate across the region within northwesterly flow aloft. At the surface, a pocket of richer boundary layer moisture is forecast across the central Plains, with more modest moisture expected northward into the Dakotas. Strong heating along a surface trough and steep midlevel lapse rates will support pockets of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Initial supercell structures are possible across the High Plains and will pose a risk of large hail and damaging gusts. With time, sufficient clustering/outflow consolidation is expected and one or more linear segments will evolve into portions of western KS/NE. Severe gust potential will increase as this occurs during the evening hours.
Further north into North Dakota, a separate area of supercell potential is expected as a weak surface low moves east along the international border near eastern MT/western ND. Isolated supercells developing ahead of an approaching surface front will pose a risk for mainly large hail and strong gusts during the evening.
Mid-Atlantic
Strong daytime heating of a very moist airmass will result in 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. While deep-layer flow will remain modest, forecast soundings do indicate around 25-30 kt effective shear magnitudes. This may allow for some organization of thunderstorm clusters by late afternoon. Most CAMs guidance indicate a forward-propagating cluster moving across the DelMarVa area and offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast by evening. Sufficient coverage of storms and expected damaging gust potential appears high enough to upgrade to a Slight (level 2 of 5) risk.
AZ
Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the higher terrain of southeast AZ/southwest NM Thursday afternoon. Steep lapse rates will support around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. This activity may pose a risk for isolated severe gusts as convection shifts southwest across lower elevated through evening.
Lower Great Lakes vicinity
Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop within modest instability ahead of a southward-sagging surface boundary on Thursday. Gusty winds may accompany this activity, but severe potential will likely be limited by poor lapse rates and modest instability.
..Leitman.. 07/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Friday, July 10
Outlook Summary
Clusters of thunderstorms accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts may evolve in a corridor across parts of the central and southern Great Plains into the Tennessee Valley Friday afternoon and evening.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 081901
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Clusters of thunderstorms accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts may evolve in a corridor across parts of the central and southern Great Plains into the Tennessee Valley Friday afternoon and evening.
Central/Southern Plains to OH/TN Valleys
Weak upper troughing will shift east from the Midwest to the Atlantic coast on Friday. Meanwhile, a convectively enhanced midlevel disturbance within larger-scale upper ridging over the Plains may move across portions of the central/southern Plains to the Mid-MS Valley. Additionally, it is possible an MCV may be located in the vicinity of the Lower OH Valley, related to remnant convection from the Day 2/Thursday period. Within this corridor from eastern CO through portions of TN/KY, a seasonally moist and unstable airmass will be in place. One or more outflow boundaries are also likely to overlap this zone. Modestly enhanced westerly flow atop this moist/unstable corridor may promote several thunderstorm clusters capable of producing mainly strong to severe wind gusts. Where these clusters develop will largely be driven by mesoscale processes and convective evolution in the Day 2/Thursday period. Given uncertainty in location of various surface features at this time frame, will maintain a broad Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk area for Friday afternoon/evening from the central High Plains to the Lower OH and TN Valleys.
..Leitman.. 07/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Saturday, July 11
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, July 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, July 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, July 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, July 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, July 15 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080848 SPC AC 080848
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
There remains a general consensus in medium-range guidance that a prominent mid-level high will build further while developing across and northeast of the Colorado Plateau through the middle Missouri Valley this coming weekend into early next week, within elongating larger scale ridging. A bit more uncertainty lingers concerning the evolution of larger-scale troughing and embedded short wavelength developments to the northeast and east of this feature into the early to middle portion of next week, but it still appears that this ridging may eventually become suppressed across the Great Lakes region.
As a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air advects along the southern fringe of strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of the mid/upper ridge, it may contribute to an environment conducive to the initiation and evolution of organizing thunderstorm clusters with potential to produce swaths of damaging surface gusts. Based on latest guidance, this may tend to initially remain north of the international border from the Great Plains through the upper Great Lakes. However, due to spread within and among the various model output, it remains unclear whether this activity will pose a greater potential impact to portions of New England or the lower Great Lakes into northern Mid Atlantic by next Tuesday or Wednesday.
..Kerr.. 07/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, July 12
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, July 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, July 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, July 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, July 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, July 15 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080848 SPC AC 080848
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
There remains a general consensus in medium-range guidance that a prominent mid-level high will build further while developing across and northeast of the Colorado Plateau through the middle Missouri Valley this coming weekend into early next week, within elongating larger scale ridging. A bit more uncertainty lingers concerning the evolution of larger-scale troughing and embedded short wavelength developments to the northeast and east of this feature into the early to middle portion of next week, but it still appears that this ridging may eventually become suppressed across the Great Lakes region.
As a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air advects along the southern fringe of strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of the mid/upper ridge, it may contribute to an environment conducive to the initiation and evolution of organizing thunderstorm clusters with potential to produce swaths of damaging surface gusts. Based on latest guidance, this may tend to initially remain north of the international border from the Great Plains through the upper Great Lakes. However, due to spread within and among the various model output, it remains unclear whether this activity will pose a greater potential impact to portions of New England or the lower Great Lakes into northern Mid Atlantic by next Tuesday or Wednesday.
..Kerr.. 07/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, July 13
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, July 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, July 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, July 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, July 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, July 15 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080848 SPC AC 080848
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
There remains a general consensus in medium-range guidance that a prominent mid-level high will build further while developing across and northeast of the Colorado Plateau through the middle Missouri Valley this coming weekend into early next week, within elongating larger scale ridging. A bit more uncertainty lingers concerning the evolution of larger-scale troughing and embedded short wavelength developments to the northeast and east of this feature into the early to middle portion of next week, but it still appears that this ridging may eventually become suppressed across the Great Lakes region.
As a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air advects along the southern fringe of strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of the mid/upper ridge, it may contribute to an environment conducive to the initiation and evolution of organizing thunderstorm clusters with potential to produce swaths of damaging surface gusts. Based on latest guidance, this may tend to initially remain north of the international border from the Great Plains through the upper Great Lakes. However, due to spread within and among the various model output, it remains unclear whether this activity will pose a greater potential impact to portions of New England or the lower Great Lakes into northern Mid Atlantic by next Tuesday or Wednesday.
..Kerr.. 07/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, July 14
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, July 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, July 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, July 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, July 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, July 15 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080848 SPC AC 080848
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
There remains a general consensus in medium-range guidance that a prominent mid-level high will build further while developing across and northeast of the Colorado Plateau through the middle Missouri Valley this coming weekend into early next week, within elongating larger scale ridging. A bit more uncertainty lingers concerning the evolution of larger-scale troughing and embedded short wavelength developments to the northeast and east of this feature into the early to middle portion of next week, but it still appears that this ridging may eventually become suppressed across the Great Lakes region.
As a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air advects along the southern fringe of strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of the mid/upper ridge, it may contribute to an environment conducive to the initiation and evolution of organizing thunderstorm clusters with potential to produce swaths of damaging surface gusts. Based on latest guidance, this may tend to initially remain north of the international border from the Great Plains through the upper Great Lakes. However, due to spread within and among the various model output, it remains unclear whether this activity will pose a greater potential impact to portions of New England or the lower Great Lakes into northern Mid Atlantic by next Tuesday or Wednesday.
..Kerr.. 07/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, July 15
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, July 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, July 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, July 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, July 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, July 15 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080848 SPC AC 080848
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
There remains a general consensus in medium-range guidance that a prominent mid-level high will build further while developing across and northeast of the Colorado Plateau through the middle Missouri Valley this coming weekend into early next week, within elongating larger scale ridging. A bit more uncertainty lingers concerning the evolution of larger-scale troughing and embedded short wavelength developments to the northeast and east of this feature into the early to middle portion of next week, but it still appears that this ridging may eventually become suppressed across the Great Lakes region.
As a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air advects along the southern fringe of strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of the mid/upper ridge, it may contribute to an environment conducive to the initiation and evolution of organizing thunderstorm clusters with potential to produce swaths of damaging surface gusts. Based on latest guidance, this may tend to initially remain north of the international border from the Great Plains through the upper Great Lakes. However, due to spread within and among the various model output, it remains unclear whether this activity will pose a greater potential impact to portions of New England or the lower Great Lakes into northern Mid Atlantic by next Tuesday or Wednesday.
..Kerr.. 07/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, July 8
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 30%
- Thursday, July 9
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Friday, July 10
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Saturday, July 11
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, July 12
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, July 13
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, July 14
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, July 15
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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