Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, October 20
Outlook Summary
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 201625
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026
Valid 201630Z - 211200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.
Southwest
Beneath a belt of 30-40-kt southwesterly flow aloft, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the higher terrain across parts of southeastern AZ into western NM this afternoon. Diurnal heating amid middle/upper 50s dewpoints will yield weak surface-based buoyancy, which combined with around 35 kt of effective shear, may promote transient storm organization. While an isolated instance of marginally severe hail (around 1 inch in diameter) and/or locally strong gusts cannot be ruled out, the overall severe threat is expected to remain isolated/limited today.
An increase in thunderstorm coverage is expected late in the period across central/northern AZ as forcing for ascent strengthens within the exit region of a robust midlevel jet. While deep-layer shear will be increasing, most of this activity should remain elevated amid weak buoyancy – limiting the overall severe risk.
..Weinman.. 10/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Wednesday, October 21
Outlook Summary
Severe hail/wind and perhaps a tornado may occur over portions of Arizona, southern Utah and western New Mexico on Wednesday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 200558
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN ARIZONA
### SUMMARY
Severe hail/wind and perhaps a tornado may occur over portions of Arizona, southern Utah and western New Mexico on Wednesday.
Synopsis
A mid-level trough will move ashore through the day Wednesday, promoting large-scale ascent of a moistening airmass across the Desert Southwest to the Four Corners region. Scattered thunderstorms are expected over these regions, and given the anticipated overlap of marginal to moderate buoyancy with a highly sheared airmass, a few severe thunderstorms are possible.
Desert Southwest to the Four Corners
Marginal instability should develop through the day, primarily driven by increasing low-level warm-air and moisture advection (given ample cloud cover expected). Surface dewpoints should increase into the 60s F, especially over central AZ, yielding over 1500 J/kg MLCAPE given 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates. A 50-70 kt southwesterly 500 mb jet will overspread the warm sector and accompanying southeasterly antecedent flow, yielding elongated hodographs with sizeable low-level curvature. Supercell thunderstorms are expected by late afternoon, accompanied by a severe wind and hail threat. Given the size of the low-level hodographs, a tornado or two may also occur.
Central to southern CA Shoreline
The core of an 80 kt 500 mb jet will overspread central and southern CA during the later half of the period (00-12Z Thursday), resulting in relatively straight but highly elongated hodographs. During this time frame, a moist marine airmass will advect to the CA shoreline while being overspread by 6.5-7 C/km mid-level lapse rates, yielding 250-500 J/kg of short and thin MLCAPE. Given the scant buoyancy, convection should be low-topped, with short line segments and supercell modes possible. A damaging gust or two is the main threat with any stronger storm that can reach the shore, as well as a landfalling waterspout.
..Squitieri.. 10/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Thursday, October 22
Outlook Summary
At least isolated severe wind/hail producing storms are possible across portions of the Great Basin into the Desert Southwest on Thursday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 200730
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN
### SUMMARY
At least isolated severe wind/hail producing storms are possible across portions of the Great Basin into the Desert Southwest on Thursday.
Synopsis
A mid-level longwave trough will overspread the CONUS west of the Rockies on Thursday, resulting in the continued northward advection of a moist, marginally unstable low-level airmass across the Desert Southwest into the Great Basin. A broad 50-70 kt mid-level jet will overspread these regions during the day, resulting in strong vertical wind shear, that coupled with the marginal instability will yield scattered strong to severe thunderstorms.
Desert Southwest into the Great Basin
The aforementioned 50-70 kt southwesterly 500 mb jet streak will overspread south-southeasterly low-level flow, resulting in elongated hodographs and over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. Though widespread clouds may inhibit surface heating to some degree, continued low-level moisture advection (e.g. 60+ F surface dewpoints) beneath 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates will yield up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Such conditions will favor multicells and supercells capable of producing at least isolated instances of severe hail and/or wind and perhaps a tornado. A marginal risk has been introduced to address the severe threat. However, if areas of locally greater surface heating (i.e. breaks in clouds) become evident, then higher severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks.
..Squitieri.. 10/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Friday, October 23
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, October 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, October 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200757 SPC AC 200757
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough will gradually de-amplify while ejecting into the central and northern Plains this weekend. Thunderstorms will be likely this weekend into early next week from the Desert Southwest into the Plains states. The best chance for isolated severe thunderstorms will be Days 4-5 (Friday-Saturday), when stronger forcing for ascent will coincide with better moisture/instability over the Desert Southwest. Thereafter, buoyancy and upper support will become increasingly decoupled with mid-level trough ejection into the Plains.
Through much of next week, increasingly positively tilted upper troughing over the eastern CONUS will yield a northwesterly upper flow regime across most of the CONUS east of the Rockies. A relatively cool and/or stable airmass will overspread most of the CONUS, with no clear signal of an organized severe threat, as also supported by ML/AI guidance consensus.
..Squitieri.. 10/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, October 24
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, October 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, October 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200757 SPC AC 200757
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough will gradually de-amplify while ejecting into the central and northern Plains this weekend. Thunderstorms will be likely this weekend into early next week from the Desert Southwest into the Plains states. The best chance for isolated severe thunderstorms will be Days 4-5 (Friday-Saturday), when stronger forcing for ascent will coincide with better moisture/instability over the Desert Southwest. Thereafter, buoyancy and upper support will become increasingly decoupled with mid-level trough ejection into the Plains.
Through much of next week, increasingly positively tilted upper troughing over the eastern CONUS will yield a northwesterly upper flow regime across most of the CONUS east of the Rockies. A relatively cool and/or stable airmass will overspread most of the CONUS, with no clear signal of an organized severe threat, as also supported by ML/AI guidance consensus.
..Squitieri.. 10/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, October 25
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, October 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, October 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200757 SPC AC 200757
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough will gradually de-amplify while ejecting into the central and northern Plains this weekend. Thunderstorms will be likely this weekend into early next week from the Desert Southwest into the Plains states. The best chance for isolated severe thunderstorms will be Days 4-5 (Friday-Saturday), when stronger forcing for ascent will coincide with better moisture/instability over the Desert Southwest. Thereafter, buoyancy and upper support will become increasingly decoupled with mid-level trough ejection into the Plains.
Through much of next week, increasingly positively tilted upper troughing over the eastern CONUS will yield a northwesterly upper flow regime across most of the CONUS east of the Rockies. A relatively cool and/or stable airmass will overspread most of the CONUS, with no clear signal of an organized severe threat, as also supported by ML/AI guidance consensus.
..Squitieri.. 10/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, October 26
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, October 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, October 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200757 SPC AC 200757
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough will gradually de-amplify while ejecting into the central and northern Plains this weekend. Thunderstorms will be likely this weekend into early next week from the Desert Southwest into the Plains states. The best chance for isolated severe thunderstorms will be Days 4-5 (Friday-Saturday), when stronger forcing for ascent will coincide with better moisture/instability over the Desert Southwest. Thereafter, buoyancy and upper support will become increasingly decoupled with mid-level trough ejection into the Plains.
Through much of next week, increasingly positively tilted upper troughing over the eastern CONUS will yield a northwesterly upper flow regime across most of the CONUS east of the Rockies. A relatively cool and/or stable airmass will overspread most of the CONUS, with no clear signal of an organized severe threat, as also supported by ML/AI guidance consensus.
..Squitieri.. 10/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, October 27
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, October 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, October 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200757 SPC AC 200757
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough will gradually de-amplify while ejecting into the central and northern Plains this weekend. Thunderstorms will be likely this weekend into early next week from the Desert Southwest into the Plains states. The best chance for isolated severe thunderstorms will be Days 4-5 (Friday-Saturday), when stronger forcing for ascent will coincide with better moisture/instability over the Desert Southwest. Thereafter, buoyancy and upper support will become increasingly decoupled with mid-level trough ejection into the Plains.
Through much of next week, increasingly positively tilted upper troughing over the eastern CONUS will yield a northwesterly upper flow regime across most of the CONUS east of the Rockies. A relatively cool and/or stable airmass will overspread most of the CONUS, with no clear signal of an organized severe threat, as also supported by ML/AI guidance consensus.
..Squitieri.. 10/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, October 20
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Wednesday, October 21
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Thursday, October 22
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Friday, October 23
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, October 24
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, October 25
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, October 26
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, October 27
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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