Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, December 14
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 141942
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025
Valid 142000Z - 151200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.
20z Update
The 10 percent thunder area was removed from South TX as the surface front has surged south of the area into northeast Mexico. A minor southward adjustment was also made across South Florida based on latest surface observations and radar trends. Isolated weak thunderstorms may persist the remainder of the afternoon from South FL into the Keys.
..Leitman.. 12/14/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 0954 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025/
Dry and stable conditions will prevail over most of the CONUS today, with a few small exceptions. A strong cold front sagging southward across TX might result in isolated afternoon thunderstorms over south TX. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms could affect south FL this afternoon as the same front weakens and approaches the area. And finally, a few lightning strikes could occur inland across western WA late tonight as a strong shortwave trough approaches. No severe storms are anticipated in any of these areas.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Monday, December 15
Outlook Summary
A few lightning flashes may occur in western Oregon and Washington tomorrow (Monday).
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 141705
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
A few lightning flashes may occur in western Oregon and Washington tomorrow (Monday).
Synopsis
A broad but low-amplitude upper ridge will become established east of the Rockies while a de-amplifying upper trough overspreads the northwestern U.S. tomorrow (Monday). Surface high pressure/colder air will prevail east of the MS River, while dry, statically stable air becomes predominant across the Plains into portions of the Interior West. Thunderstorm potential will therefore be limited across most of the U.S. One exception will be portions of the Pacific Northwest, where colder temperatures aloft will accompany the aforementioned de-amplifying upper trough. This will yield scant buoyancy, amid appreciable forcing for ascent, to support a few lightning flashes wherever deep-moist convection can develop. Furthermore, 50+ kt flow, within a few hundred m above ground level, will develop with the passage of the upper trough. If a stronger storm core can materialize, enough downward momentum transport may take place to support a few damaging gusts. However, confidence in this scenario is too low for the introduction of severe probabilities at this time.
..Squitieri.. 12/14/2025
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Tuesday, December 16
Outlook Summary
A few lightning flashes may occur over parts of the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday/Tuesday evening, with isolated thunderstorms also possible over the Texas Coast Plain early Wednesday morning.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 141907
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
A few lightning flashes may occur over parts of the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday/Tuesday evening, with isolated thunderstorms also possible over the Texas Coast Plain early Wednesday morning.
Synopsis
A series of mid-level troughs will progress across the northern CONUS on Tuesday, resulting in pronounced surface troughs becoming established across the Pacific Northwest and the central CONUS. Cooler temperatures aloft will overspread the northern OR and WA coastline, resulting in scant buoyancy amid deep-layer ascent to support a few lightning flashes during the day Tuesday. A warm-air advection regime should develop along the western Gulf Coast in response to the glancing mid-level trough to the north, resulting in the onset of moisture return. Elevated buoyancy should develop within the warm-air advection regime after 06Z Wednesday morning, which may support isolated thunderstorm development across the TX Coastal Plain.
..Squitieri.. 12/14/2025
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Wednesday, December 17
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, December 17 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, December 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, December 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, December 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, December 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140956 SPC AC 140956
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Northward moisture return is expected to persist through the period on D4/Wednesday as a strong surface low moves across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest and strong southerly flow expands across much of the warm sector. Despite the moisture advancing well inland, warm air aloft should limit strong thunderstorm potential on D4/Wednesday.
By D5/Thursday, weak to moderate instability is expected from East Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Strong shear will be present north of I-20 as a mid-level trough amplifies and a strong mid-level jet overspreads the warm sector. Despite the presence of strong shear and weak to moderate instability, updraft intensity may still struggle due to weak lapse rates/warm air aloft. Only weak height falls/cooling temperatures aloft are forecast south of the MO Bootheel. Thunderstorms are likely from the Mid-Mississippi Valley northward, where forcing will be stronger, but these regions will remain well north of the more favorable instability. Therefore, any severe weather threat would likely be marginal.
The cold front, associated with the storm system on D5/Thursday, will move off the East Coast early on D6/Friday. Some marginal severe weather may be possible Friday morning, but otherwise, severe weather potential will be low as high pressure builds east of the MS River in its wake.
By this weekend, return flow is anticipated across portions of the southern Plains, but destabilization remains uncertain. A zonal mid-level pattern with multiple embedded shortwave troughs is currently forecast during that timeframe which commonly results in considerably low predictability. Regardless of the exact outcome over the weekend, there is general consensus for zonal flow and a ridge building across the western CONUS and into the Plains. In general, this will likely not support a significant severe weather threat.
..Bentley.. 12/14/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, December 18
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, December 17 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, December 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, December 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, December 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, December 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140956 SPC AC 140956
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Northward moisture return is expected to persist through the period on D4/Wednesday as a strong surface low moves across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest and strong southerly flow expands across much of the warm sector. Despite the moisture advancing well inland, warm air aloft should limit strong thunderstorm potential on D4/Wednesday.
By D5/Thursday, weak to moderate instability is expected from East Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Strong shear will be present north of I-20 as a mid-level trough amplifies and a strong mid-level jet overspreads the warm sector. Despite the presence of strong shear and weak to moderate instability, updraft intensity may still struggle due to weak lapse rates/warm air aloft. Only weak height falls/cooling temperatures aloft are forecast south of the MO Bootheel. Thunderstorms are likely from the Mid-Mississippi Valley northward, where forcing will be stronger, but these regions will remain well north of the more favorable instability. Therefore, any severe weather threat would likely be marginal.
The cold front, associated with the storm system on D5/Thursday, will move off the East Coast early on D6/Friday. Some marginal severe weather may be possible Friday morning, but otherwise, severe weather potential will be low as high pressure builds east of the MS River in its wake.
By this weekend, return flow is anticipated across portions of the southern Plains, but destabilization remains uncertain. A zonal mid-level pattern with multiple embedded shortwave troughs is currently forecast during that timeframe which commonly results in considerably low predictability. Regardless of the exact outcome over the weekend, there is general consensus for zonal flow and a ridge building across the western CONUS and into the Plains. In general, this will likely not support a significant severe weather threat.
..Bentley.. 12/14/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, December 19
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, December 17 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, December 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, December 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, December 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, December 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140956 SPC AC 140956
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Northward moisture return is expected to persist through the period on D4/Wednesday as a strong surface low moves across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest and strong southerly flow expands across much of the warm sector. Despite the moisture advancing well inland, warm air aloft should limit strong thunderstorm potential on D4/Wednesday.
By D5/Thursday, weak to moderate instability is expected from East Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Strong shear will be present north of I-20 as a mid-level trough amplifies and a strong mid-level jet overspreads the warm sector. Despite the presence of strong shear and weak to moderate instability, updraft intensity may still struggle due to weak lapse rates/warm air aloft. Only weak height falls/cooling temperatures aloft are forecast south of the MO Bootheel. Thunderstorms are likely from the Mid-Mississippi Valley northward, where forcing will be stronger, but these regions will remain well north of the more favorable instability. Therefore, any severe weather threat would likely be marginal.
The cold front, associated with the storm system on D5/Thursday, will move off the East Coast early on D6/Friday. Some marginal severe weather may be possible Friday morning, but otherwise, severe weather potential will be low as high pressure builds east of the MS River in its wake.
By this weekend, return flow is anticipated across portions of the southern Plains, but destabilization remains uncertain. A zonal mid-level pattern with multiple embedded shortwave troughs is currently forecast during that timeframe which commonly results in considerably low predictability. Regardless of the exact outcome over the weekend, there is general consensus for zonal flow and a ridge building across the western CONUS and into the Plains. In general, this will likely not support a significant severe weather threat.
..Bentley.. 12/14/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, December 20
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, December 17 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, December 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, December 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, December 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, December 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140956 SPC AC 140956
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Northward moisture return is expected to persist through the period on D4/Wednesday as a strong surface low moves across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest and strong southerly flow expands across much of the warm sector. Despite the moisture advancing well inland, warm air aloft should limit strong thunderstorm potential on D4/Wednesday.
By D5/Thursday, weak to moderate instability is expected from East Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Strong shear will be present north of I-20 as a mid-level trough amplifies and a strong mid-level jet overspreads the warm sector. Despite the presence of strong shear and weak to moderate instability, updraft intensity may still struggle due to weak lapse rates/warm air aloft. Only weak height falls/cooling temperatures aloft are forecast south of the MO Bootheel. Thunderstorms are likely from the Mid-Mississippi Valley northward, where forcing will be stronger, but these regions will remain well north of the more favorable instability. Therefore, any severe weather threat would likely be marginal.
The cold front, associated with the storm system on D5/Thursday, will move off the East Coast early on D6/Friday. Some marginal severe weather may be possible Friday morning, but otherwise, severe weather potential will be low as high pressure builds east of the MS River in its wake.
By this weekend, return flow is anticipated across portions of the southern Plains, but destabilization remains uncertain. A zonal mid-level pattern with multiple embedded shortwave troughs is currently forecast during that timeframe which commonly results in considerably low predictability. Regardless of the exact outcome over the weekend, there is general consensus for zonal flow and a ridge building across the western CONUS and into the Plains. In general, this will likely not support a significant severe weather threat.
..Bentley.. 12/14/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, December 21
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, December 17 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, December 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, December 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, December 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, December 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140956 SPC AC 140956
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Northward moisture return is expected to persist through the period on D4/Wednesday as a strong surface low moves across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest and strong southerly flow expands across much of the warm sector. Despite the moisture advancing well inland, warm air aloft should limit strong thunderstorm potential on D4/Wednesday.
By D5/Thursday, weak to moderate instability is expected from East Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Strong shear will be present north of I-20 as a mid-level trough amplifies and a strong mid-level jet overspreads the warm sector. Despite the presence of strong shear and weak to moderate instability, updraft intensity may still struggle due to weak lapse rates/warm air aloft. Only weak height falls/cooling temperatures aloft are forecast south of the MO Bootheel. Thunderstorms are likely from the Mid-Mississippi Valley northward, where forcing will be stronger, but these regions will remain well north of the more favorable instability. Therefore, any severe weather threat would likely be marginal.
The cold front, associated with the storm system on D5/Thursday, will move off the East Coast early on D6/Friday. Some marginal severe weather may be possible Friday morning, but otherwise, severe weather potential will be low as high pressure builds east of the MS River in its wake.
By this weekend, return flow is anticipated across portions of the southern Plains, but destabilization remains uncertain. A zonal mid-level pattern with multiple embedded shortwave troughs is currently forecast during that timeframe which commonly results in considerably low predictability. Regardless of the exact outcome over the weekend, there is general consensus for zonal flow and a ridge building across the western CONUS and into the Plains. In general, this will likely not support a significant severe weather threat.
..Bentley.. 12/14/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, December 14
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Monday, December 15
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, December 16
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Wednesday, December 17
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, December 18
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, December 19
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, December 20
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, December 21
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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