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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Thursday, July 16

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and gusty winds will be possible across parts of the northern Rockies this afternoon and evening. Isolated to scattered damaging winds may also occur over portions of northern New England, the Upper Midwest, and Mid-Atlantic. A brief tornado could occur across a small part of south-central/southwest Texas later today or tonight.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 161634

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Valid 161630Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and gusty winds will be possible across parts of the northern Rockies this afternoon and evening. Isolated to scattered damaging winds may also occur over portions of northern New England, the Upper Midwest, and Mid-Atlantic. A brief tornado could occur across a small part of south-central/southwest Texas later today or tonight.

Northern Rockies

A closed upper low will move slowly northward along the coastal Pacific Northwest through tonight. Upper ridging will persist across much of the Rockies to the Plains. Between these features, a belt of modestly enhanced south/southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the northern Rockies. Modest easterly low-level winds will transport generally 50s to low 60s F surface dewpoints across this region beneath steep mid-level lapse rates. As daytime heating occurs, moderate instability should develop. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to initially form over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Veering wind profiles with height through mid/upper levels and gradually strengthening flow aloft will support around 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear. Organized cells will pose a risk for gusty winds and severe hail across much of the region. The greatest risk for 1+ inch hail appears to be across parts of western Montana.

Northern New England

A vigorous mid-level shortwave trough will move quickly southeastward from southern Ontario/Quebec across New England today with strong west/northwest deep-layer flow. Boundary layer moisture will be somewhat limited compared to prior days, with surface dewpoints generally in the 50s F. Still, somewhat greater daytime heating is expected to the north of the more prominent smoke plume across southern New England, which should help steepening low-level lapse rates by late morning/early afternoon. While MLCAPE will remain modest (around 250-500 J/kg), the strong low/mid-level westerly flow and steepened low-level lapse rates should support scattered damaging winds as low-topped convection spreads southeast from Quebec and across portions of northern New England through the afternoon near a secondary/weak front.

Mid-Atlantic

Enhanced west-northwesterly mid/upper-level winds will overspread the Mid-Atlantic today on the southern periphery of the mid-level shortwave trough moving across New England. A surface front is expected to sag southward through the day, approaching the Pennsylvania/Maryland border vicinity by late afternoon. Rich low-level moisture will be in place ahead of the surface front and beneath steepening mid-level lapse rates spreading in from the Ohio Valley. This, along with diurnal heating, will foster a corridor of moderate to locally strong instability this afternoon. Furthermore, various NAM/RAP forecast soundings show 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear and steep low-level lapse rates present south of the front. This environment would generally support organized cells/line segments. However, overall thunderstorm coverage remains uncertain given that stronger forcing for ascent should remain mostly north of the warm sector. Additionally, it is uncertain to what extent that smoke may continue to have a negative impact on an otherwise favorable environment for severe thunderstorms.

Northeast North Dakota/Northern Minnesota

A series of convectively enhanced vorticity maxima will migrate across the Canadian Prairies north of the prominent upper ridge over the Plains/Rockies, and through northwesterly flow aloft into parts of North Dakota and northern Minnesota this afternoon into tonight. At the surface, a weak low and surface front will move across North Dakota into northern Minnesota during the evening and overnight hours. South/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain a moisture-rich boundary layer, supporting a narrow corridor of instability. NAM/RAP forecast soundings show supercell wind profiles, but also increasing capping through the late afternoon/evening. Even so, most high-resolution guidance develops convection across southern Manitoba into northern North Dakota during the evening, spreading east/southeast across northern Minnesota overnight. Isolated severe hail and damaging winds may occur with this activity, and a tornado risk cannot be ruled out.

South-Central Texas

While low-level shear/SRH has weakened since last night, and ongoing convection remains extensive/repetitive, a northward drift of the MCV and potential re-establishment of stronger low-level winds later today into tonight could account for non-zero/brief tornado potential.

Arizona

Thunderstorms will develop over the higher terrain of the Mogollon Rim and southeast Arizona this afternoon/evening, and subsequently spread westward across portions of central/southern Arizona. Modest instability and steep lapse rates amid strong heating could support sporadic strong gusts.

..Guyer/Squitieri.. 07/16/2026

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Outlook for Friday, July 17

Outlook Summary

Strong to potentially severe storms are possible on Friday across parts of western Montana and northern Idaho, and also across parts of the northern Great Lakes region.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 161726

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WESTERN MT/NORTHERN ID…AND ALSO FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES

### SUMMARY

Strong to potentially severe storms are possible on Friday across parts of western Montana and northern Idaho, and also across parts of the northern Great Lakes region.

Parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes

A mid/upper-level shortwave trough initially over central SK/AB is forecast to move southeastward toward the Upper Great Lakes by the end of the period. Multiple low-amplitude vorticity maxima may precede this shortwave within west-northwesterly flow aloft. A surface low is forecast to move east-southeastward through the day near Lake Superior, as a trailing cold front moves through the Dakotas and MN. A remnant surface front initially draped from northern IL/IN into central WI is forecast to move northeastward as an effective warm front.

Details of convective evolution remain uncertain through the period across the region. An elevated storm cluster and possible MCS may be ongoing at the start of the period near northeast MN and adjacent portions of Ontario, with other convection possible to the cool side of the effective warm front across WI. In the wake of morning convection, at least isolated diurnal storm development will be possible along the cold front, and also near its intersection with the effective warm front. Within the warm sector, moderate buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear will conditionally support a threat for organized cells/clusters, with a threat of hail and damaging winds. Any persistent supercell could also pose at least a brief tornado threat, especially in closer proximity to the surface low and warm front. One or more storm clusters may evolve Friday night and move east-southeastward across the northern Great Lakes region, potentially posing an isolated severe threat.

No upgrade in probabilities has been at this time, due to uncertainties regarding recovery in the wake of morning convection across northern WI and Upper MI, and also regarding storm coverage along the cold front into eastern MN. However, Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) equivalent probabilities may eventually be needed for some part of the region.

Western MT/northern ID

A favorable thermodynamic profile is again expected across parts of western MT and vicinity on Friday, with steep lapse rates and MLCAPE potentially in the 1000-1500 J/kg range. Deep-layer flow may be somewhat weaker (compared to D1/Thursday) as a mid/upper-low moves well to the northwest, but backed surface winds and modest veering with height will still provide sufficient effective shear for occasional storm organization. Isolated hail and severe gusts could accompany the strongest storms. Some guidance suggests potential for outflow-driven storm clustering, which may result in a corridor of locally greater wind potential, though this scenario remains uncertain at this time.

Parts of the Ohio Valley into the Southeast

A broad area of nebulous damaging-wind potential is expected to evolve from parts of the Ohio Valley into the Southeast, mainly during the afternoon. Across the Ohio Valley vicinity, rich moisture and moderate buoyancy within a weakly capped environment will result in development of scattered to numerous thunderstorms. Deep-layer flow/shear will remain quite weak, which should limit storm organization.

A similar thermodynamic environment will extend into parts of the Mid-South and Southeast. Weak northwesterly low/midlevel flow may allow for development of small southeastward moving clusters across parts of TN/MS/AL, though weak deep-layer shear should temper storm organization.

Due to the disorganized nature of any damaging-wind threat, wind probabilities have been withheld, though addition of probabilities across parts of the region is possible, if trends support any mesoscale corridors of greater threat.

Florida

Most CAM guidance suggests vigorous storm development just offshore of the FL Gulf Coast Friday morning, in association with a weak midlevel trough/low. The morning convection may tend to remain just offshore, but additional storm development is expected by afternoon across much of the peninsula. Weak deep-layer shear and uncertainty regarding mesoscale details precludes the introduction of wind probabilities, though localized strong to severe gusts cannot be ruled out.

..Dean.. 07/16/2026

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Outlook for Saturday, July 18

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Ohio Valley during the late afternoon and evening hours before moving southeast toward the Mid-Atlantic overnight. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon across portions of the Mid-Atlantic.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 160734

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Ohio Valley during the late afternoon and evening hours before moving southeast toward the Mid-Atlantic overnight. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon across portions of the Mid-Atlantic.

Synopsis

The CONUS-wide mid-level ridge centered over the north-central Plains for much of the past week will have retrograded west by Saturday and be located across the US and Canadian Rockies. Strong mid-level westerlies will persist on the ridge's northwest, north, and northeast periphery. Embedded within the westerlies, a series of short-wave troughs and smaller-scale vorticity/speed maxima will move across the Great Lakes and Northeast.

At the start of the forecast period, the main short-wave trough will be located across central Ontario, with its associated jet streak located across the Upper Midwest. This feature will dig southeast on Saturday, ending up in the vicinity of northern New England by Sunday morning. Ahead of this main wave, the 20260716/00 UTC guidance suite shows multiple speed/vorticity maxima moving through the west-northwesterly flow, each of which will be capable of aiding the development of scattered elevated thunderstorms.

At the surface, a weak surface low should develop Saturday morning across southern Ontario/the northern Great Lakes. This low will slowly deepen during the day as it digs southeast, reaching upstate New York by evening. Ahead of the surface low, southwesterly low-level flow will transport a very moist airmass northeast into the Lower Great lakes, with 70F surface dewpoints possible as far northeast as western New York.

To the southwest of the surface low, a surface cold front will serve as an initiating boundary for thunderstorms during the afternoon. An unstable and strongly sheared airmass will be in place by later afternoon across Ohio northeast into western New York. As thunderstorms initiate along the front, large hail will be possible before thunderstorm outflows eventually congeal into one or more linear clusters posing a threat for damaging winds. This line of storms will push south and east during the evening and overnight with a continued threat of strong, damaging thunderstorm winds.

Farther southeast across the Mid-Atlantic, most model guidance indicates the development of a surface trough to the east of the Appalachians during the late afternoon. To the east of this trough axis, temperatures will warm into the 90Fs, although there is some uncertainty how far north the hot boundary layer will extend. Given the presence of this surface trough and strong diurnal heating, several clusters of thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon, especially if any of the previously discussed vorticity/speed maxima can interact with the low-level trough. Strong, damaging winds will be possible with any thunderstorm complex during the afternoon. Additional severe potential will also exist overnight as the remnants of the convection along the cold front approaches the region. Gusty thunderstorm winds will be the likely threat with these storms.

..Marsh.. 07/16/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Sunday, July 19

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160902 SPC AC 160902

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

DISCUSSION

The mid-level pattern across the US will continue to be characterized by a West Coast trough, Intermountain West ridge, and Great Lakes/East Coast trough through the extended period. The main belt of westerlies will be found along the northern periphery of the Intermountain West ridge.

A couple of short-wave troughs will feature prominently during the forecast period. The first of these will be moving off the East Coast on Sunday (Day 4). The second will be the closed low located across the Pacific Northwest on Sunday. This low will open into a mid-level short-wave trough as it crests the Intermountain West ridge, before diving southeast across the Great Lakes early next week.

Sunday's East Coast departing mid-level wave will leave behind a surface boundary arced from Virginia west-northwest into the Upper Midwest. To the south of this boundary, a warm, moist airmass will support afternoon MUCAPE values in the 1500-2500 J/kg range, locally higher. This boundary will slowly push southward into the Carolinas during the afternoon.

Modest height falls will overspread this boundary across the Carolinas during the afternoon as a the region remains on the southern fringes of the departing wave's basal region. Additionally, a weak mid-/upper-level level low across Florida/the eastern Gulf will lift northward as it rejoins the westerlies. The combination of modest height falls, strong instability, and the presence of a surface boundary will result in scattered thunderstorm development capable of producing strong thunderstorm outflows and wind damage. A 15% area has been introduced across the Carolinas for Sunday/Day-4 to account for this potential.

The next time/area of potential concern will be across portions of the Upper Midwest/western Great Lakes on Monday/Day-5. Here, both the physics-based GEFS and EC ensemble guidance and the GFS and EC-based AI emulators are in good agreement that height falls will overspread the region ahead of the next short-wave trough. However, the GFS-based ensemble means are considerably weaker with the strength of the trough, partially owing to differences in timing of the main wave. The background environment will likely be favorable for severe thunderstorms, with MUCAPE values in the 2000-3000 J/kg range and strong vertical shear, the magnitude of which will be largely influenced by the strength of the mid-level wave. That said, west/southwesterly flow in the 925-700 millibar layer should support a strong EML given the antecedent hot and dry airmass upstream of this flow. This leads to concerns regarding convective initiation within the favorable severe background environment. These concerns are supported by the ensemble guidance with varying degrees of QPF shown within the ensemble members. Given this is still 5 days away, will hold off on introducing unconditional severe probabilities with this forecast.

..Marsh.. 07/16/2026

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Outlook for Monday, July 20

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160902 SPC AC 160902

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

DISCUSSION

The mid-level pattern across the US will continue to be characterized by a West Coast trough, Intermountain West ridge, and Great Lakes/East Coast trough through the extended period. The main belt of westerlies will be found along the northern periphery of the Intermountain West ridge.

A couple of short-wave troughs will feature prominently during the forecast period. The first of these will be moving off the East Coast on Sunday (Day 4). The second will be the closed low located across the Pacific Northwest on Sunday. This low will open into a mid-level short-wave trough as it crests the Intermountain West ridge, before diving southeast across the Great Lakes early next week.

Sunday's East Coast departing mid-level wave will leave behind a surface boundary arced from Virginia west-northwest into the Upper Midwest. To the south of this boundary, a warm, moist airmass will support afternoon MUCAPE values in the 1500-2500 J/kg range, locally higher. This boundary will slowly push southward into the Carolinas during the afternoon.

Modest height falls will overspread this boundary across the Carolinas during the afternoon as a the region remains on the southern fringes of the departing wave's basal region. Additionally, a weak mid-/upper-level level low across Florida/the eastern Gulf will lift northward as it rejoins the westerlies. The combination of modest height falls, strong instability, and the presence of a surface boundary will result in scattered thunderstorm development capable of producing strong thunderstorm outflows and wind damage. A 15% area has been introduced across the Carolinas for Sunday/Day-4 to account for this potential.

The next time/area of potential concern will be across portions of the Upper Midwest/western Great Lakes on Monday/Day-5. Here, both the physics-based GEFS and EC ensemble guidance and the GFS and EC-based AI emulators are in good agreement that height falls will overspread the region ahead of the next short-wave trough. However, the GFS-based ensemble means are considerably weaker with the strength of the trough, partially owing to differences in timing of the main wave. The background environment will likely be favorable for severe thunderstorms, with MUCAPE values in the 2000-3000 J/kg range and strong vertical shear, the magnitude of which will be largely influenced by the strength of the mid-level wave. That said, west/southwesterly flow in the 925-700 millibar layer should support a strong EML given the antecedent hot and dry airmass upstream of this flow. This leads to concerns regarding convective initiation within the favorable severe background environment. These concerns are supported by the ensemble guidance with varying degrees of QPF shown within the ensemble members. Given this is still 5 days away, will hold off on introducing unconditional severe probabilities with this forecast.

..Marsh.. 07/16/2026

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Outlook for Tuesday, July 21

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160902 SPC AC 160902

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

DISCUSSION

The mid-level pattern across the US will continue to be characterized by a West Coast trough, Intermountain West ridge, and Great Lakes/East Coast trough through the extended period. The main belt of westerlies will be found along the northern periphery of the Intermountain West ridge.

A couple of short-wave troughs will feature prominently during the forecast period. The first of these will be moving off the East Coast on Sunday (Day 4). The second will be the closed low located across the Pacific Northwest on Sunday. This low will open into a mid-level short-wave trough as it crests the Intermountain West ridge, before diving southeast across the Great Lakes early next week.

Sunday's East Coast departing mid-level wave will leave behind a surface boundary arced from Virginia west-northwest into the Upper Midwest. To the south of this boundary, a warm, moist airmass will support afternoon MUCAPE values in the 1500-2500 J/kg range, locally higher. This boundary will slowly push southward into the Carolinas during the afternoon.

Modest height falls will overspread this boundary across the Carolinas during the afternoon as a the region remains on the southern fringes of the departing wave's basal region. Additionally, a weak mid-/upper-level level low across Florida/the eastern Gulf will lift northward as it rejoins the westerlies. The combination of modest height falls, strong instability, and the presence of a surface boundary will result in scattered thunderstorm development capable of producing strong thunderstorm outflows and wind damage. A 15% area has been introduced across the Carolinas for Sunday/Day-4 to account for this potential.

The next time/area of potential concern will be across portions of the Upper Midwest/western Great Lakes on Monday/Day-5. Here, both the physics-based GEFS and EC ensemble guidance and the GFS and EC-based AI emulators are in good agreement that height falls will overspread the region ahead of the next short-wave trough. However, the GFS-based ensemble means are considerably weaker with the strength of the trough, partially owing to differences in timing of the main wave. The background environment will likely be favorable for severe thunderstorms, with MUCAPE values in the 2000-3000 J/kg range and strong vertical shear, the magnitude of which will be largely influenced by the strength of the mid-level wave. That said, west/southwesterly flow in the 925-700 millibar layer should support a strong EML given the antecedent hot and dry airmass upstream of this flow. This leads to concerns regarding convective initiation within the favorable severe background environment. These concerns are supported by the ensemble guidance with varying degrees of QPF shown within the ensemble members. Given this is still 5 days away, will hold off on introducing unconditional severe probabilities with this forecast.

..Marsh.. 07/16/2026

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Outlook for Wednesday, July 22

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160902 SPC AC 160902

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

DISCUSSION

The mid-level pattern across the US will continue to be characterized by a West Coast trough, Intermountain West ridge, and Great Lakes/East Coast trough through the extended period. The main belt of westerlies will be found along the northern periphery of the Intermountain West ridge.

A couple of short-wave troughs will feature prominently during the forecast period. The first of these will be moving off the East Coast on Sunday (Day 4). The second will be the closed low located across the Pacific Northwest on Sunday. This low will open into a mid-level short-wave trough as it crests the Intermountain West ridge, before diving southeast across the Great Lakes early next week.

Sunday's East Coast departing mid-level wave will leave behind a surface boundary arced from Virginia west-northwest into the Upper Midwest. To the south of this boundary, a warm, moist airmass will support afternoon MUCAPE values in the 1500-2500 J/kg range, locally higher. This boundary will slowly push southward into the Carolinas during the afternoon.

Modest height falls will overspread this boundary across the Carolinas during the afternoon as a the region remains on the southern fringes of the departing wave's basal region. Additionally, a weak mid-/upper-level level low across Florida/the eastern Gulf will lift northward as it rejoins the westerlies. The combination of modest height falls, strong instability, and the presence of a surface boundary will result in scattered thunderstorm development capable of producing strong thunderstorm outflows and wind damage. A 15% area has been introduced across the Carolinas for Sunday/Day-4 to account for this potential.

The next time/area of potential concern will be across portions of the Upper Midwest/western Great Lakes on Monday/Day-5. Here, both the physics-based GEFS and EC ensemble guidance and the GFS and EC-based AI emulators are in good agreement that height falls will overspread the region ahead of the next short-wave trough. However, the GFS-based ensemble means are considerably weaker with the strength of the trough, partially owing to differences in timing of the main wave. The background environment will likely be favorable for severe thunderstorms, with MUCAPE values in the 2000-3000 J/kg range and strong vertical shear, the magnitude of which will be largely influenced by the strength of the mid-level wave. That said, west/southwesterly flow in the 925-700 millibar layer should support a strong EML given the antecedent hot and dry airmass upstream of this flow. This leads to concerns regarding convective initiation within the favorable severe background environment. These concerns are supported by the ensemble guidance with varying degrees of QPF shown within the ensemble members. Given this is still 5 days away, will hold off on introducing unconditional severe probabilities with this forecast.

..Marsh.. 07/16/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Thursday, July 23

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160902 SPC AC 160902

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

DISCUSSION

The mid-level pattern across the US will continue to be characterized by a West Coast trough, Intermountain West ridge, and Great Lakes/East Coast trough through the extended period. The main belt of westerlies will be found along the northern periphery of the Intermountain West ridge.

A couple of short-wave troughs will feature prominently during the forecast period. The first of these will be moving off the East Coast on Sunday (Day 4). The second will be the closed low located across the Pacific Northwest on Sunday. This low will open into a mid-level short-wave trough as it crests the Intermountain West ridge, before diving southeast across the Great Lakes early next week.

Sunday's East Coast departing mid-level wave will leave behind a surface boundary arced from Virginia west-northwest into the Upper Midwest. To the south of this boundary, a warm, moist airmass will support afternoon MUCAPE values in the 1500-2500 J/kg range, locally higher. This boundary will slowly push southward into the Carolinas during the afternoon.

Modest height falls will overspread this boundary across the Carolinas during the afternoon as a the region remains on the southern fringes of the departing wave's basal region. Additionally, a weak mid-/upper-level level low across Florida/the eastern Gulf will lift northward as it rejoins the westerlies. The combination of modest height falls, strong instability, and the presence of a surface boundary will result in scattered thunderstorm development capable of producing strong thunderstorm outflows and wind damage. A 15% area has been introduced across the Carolinas for Sunday/Day-4 to account for this potential.

The next time/area of potential concern will be across portions of the Upper Midwest/western Great Lakes on Monday/Day-5. Here, both the physics-based GEFS and EC ensemble guidance and the GFS and EC-based AI emulators are in good agreement that height falls will overspread the region ahead of the next short-wave trough. However, the GFS-based ensemble means are considerably weaker with the strength of the trough, partially owing to differences in timing of the main wave. The background environment will likely be favorable for severe thunderstorms, with MUCAPE values in the 2000-3000 J/kg range and strong vertical shear, the magnitude of which will be largely influenced by the strength of the mid-level wave. That said, west/southwesterly flow in the 925-700 millibar layer should support a strong EML given the antecedent hot and dry airmass upstream of this flow. This leads to concerns regarding convective initiation within the favorable severe background environment. These concerns are supported by the ensemble guidance with varying degrees of QPF shown within the ensemble members. Given this is still 5 days away, will hold off on introducing unconditional severe probabilities with this forecast.

..Marsh.. 07/16/2026

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National Risk Overview

Thursday, July 16

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Friday, July 17

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 5%

Saturday, July 18

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Sunday, July 19

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Monday, July 20

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Tuesday, July 21

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Wednesday, July 22

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Thursday, July 23

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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