Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, March 21
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce marginally severe hail and damaging winds this afternoon and evening across parts of the southern Appalachians/Southeast.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 211230
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026
Valid 211300Z - 221200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/SOUTHEAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce marginally severe hail and damaging winds this afternoon and evening across parts of the southern Appalachians/Southeast.
Southern Appalachians/Southeast
With upper ridging persisting over the Southwest and northern Mexico today, a subtle mid-level shortwave trough will move southeastward from the mid MS Valley/Mid-South this morning towards the southern Appalachians vicinity by this evening. At the surface, a weak front draped generally east-west across the OH Valley should lift northward as a warm front through the afternoon, with modest low-level moisture advancing northward across parts of the lower MS Valley, TN Valley, and Southeast.
Large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave trough should remain rather weak, but daytime heating and orographic circulations over the southern Appalachians may aid isolated thunderstorm development by mid to late afternoon (around 20-22Z). Most guidance, with the exception of the NAM, suggests that boundary-layer moisture will remain quite limited this afternoon, with surface dewpoints generally in the 40s to low 50s. Even so, weak instability/steepened low-level lapse rates may support occasional strong to damaging downdraft winds with any thunderstorms that can develop from eastern TN into parts of the Carolinas. Around 25-30 kt of effective bulk shear may also aid modest updraft organization and marginally severe hail with the strongest cores. The isolated severe threat should wane through the evening with the loss of daytime heating.
..Gleason/Kerr.. 03/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Sunday, March 22
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected on Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of the Ohio Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 210601
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected on Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of the Ohio Valley.
Ohio Valley/Mid Mississippi Valley
At mid-levels on Sunday, an amplifying trough will move quickly east-southeastward across the north-central U.S, as an associated jet streak translates eastward into the southern Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward into the Ohio Valley. South of the front, moderate instability will develop across a moist airmass by early afternoon, with surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F. Warming surface temperatures and increasing low-level convergence will result in convective initiation along parts of the front during the mid to late afternoon. Storm coverage is forecast to gradually increase as several clusters or line segments with a severe threat move southeastward across the Ohio Valley during the late afternoon and early evening.
During the afternoon from Cincinnati to Pittsburgh, forecast soundings gradually increase MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range. Forecasts just ahead of the front suggest that winds will be veered to the southwest near the surface, but that strong speed shear will exist in the lower to mid-levels. 0-6 km shear is forecast to range from 40 to 50 knots, which should be favorable for severe thunderstorm development. 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7.0 to 7.5 C/km range should support supercells with large hail. The supercell threat is expected to be greatest early in the event, when cells are more likely to be discrete. A threat for severe wind gusts is also expected. The wind-damage threat should be concentrated along short line segments that form in the late afternoon and early evening. A marginal tornado threat will also be possible.
Further west-southwest into the lower Ohio Valley and mid Mississippi Valley, the models are forecasting a stout capping inversion to the south of the front over much of the warm sector. Near the front in the early evening, the cap is forecast to weaken. This combined with increasing low-level convergence near the front should be enough for isolated convective initiation. A marginal threat for hail and severe wind gusts would be possible with the stronger cells that can initiate and persist.
..Broyles.. 03/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Monday, March 23
Outlook Summary
An isolated severe threat is expected on Monday across parts of the Carolinas and Georgia.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 210711
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA
### SUMMARY
An isolated severe threat is expected on Monday across parts of the Carolinas and Georgia.
Carolinas/Georgia
An upper-level trough will move eastward to near the Eastern Seaboard on Monday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move through the Carolinas, and should be positioned from central Georgia into central South Carolina by Monday afternoon. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s F will contribute to weak destabilization. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop near the front and move east-southeastward toward the Atlantic coast during the mid to late afternoon. 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range, along with steep low-level lapse rates may be enough for a marginal wind-damage threat.
..Broyles.. 03/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Tuesday, March 24
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, March 24 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, March 25 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, March 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, March 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, March 28 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210829 SPC AC 210829
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6
An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the western Atlantic from Tuesday into Wednesday, as a surface high moves eastward across the eastern U.S. A dry airmass is forecast across most of the U.S., which should be unfavorable for thunderstorms in most areas.
On Thursday, a low is forecast to develop in the northern U.S., as low-level moisture returns quickly northward into the parts of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms will be possible across this unstable airmass, mainly Thursday night, along the southern edge of a passing mid-level jet streak. The greatest potential for severe thunderstorms is expected from the mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley along and near a cold front. At this time, the amount of spread concerning potential outcomes is substantial. An area may need to be added once model solutions begin to agree more, and confidence increases concerning where the greatest severe threat will be.
Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8
On Friday, the front is forecast to move southward across the Tennessee Valley, where isolated to scattered strong thunderstorms will be possible during the day. The front is forecast to move southward to near the Gulf Coast by Saturday. Isolated storms would again be possible near the front. Although the current thinking is that any severe threat will be marginal on Friday and Saturday, uncertainty is substantial due to the extended range in the forecast period.
..Broyles.. 03/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, March 25
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, March 24 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, March 25 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, March 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, March 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, March 28 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210829 SPC AC 210829
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6
An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the western Atlantic from Tuesday into Wednesday, as a surface high moves eastward across the eastern U.S. A dry airmass is forecast across most of the U.S., which should be unfavorable for thunderstorms in most areas.
On Thursday, a low is forecast to develop in the northern U.S., as low-level moisture returns quickly northward into the parts of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms will be possible across this unstable airmass, mainly Thursday night, along the southern edge of a passing mid-level jet streak. The greatest potential for severe thunderstorms is expected from the mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley along and near a cold front. At this time, the amount of spread concerning potential outcomes is substantial. An area may need to be added once model solutions begin to agree more, and confidence increases concerning where the greatest severe threat will be.
Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8
On Friday, the front is forecast to move southward across the Tennessee Valley, where isolated to scattered strong thunderstorms will be possible during the day. The front is forecast to move southward to near the Gulf Coast by Saturday. Isolated storms would again be possible near the front. Although the current thinking is that any severe threat will be marginal on Friday and Saturday, uncertainty is substantial due to the extended range in the forecast period.
..Broyles.. 03/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, March 26
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, March 24 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, March 25 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, March 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, March 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, March 28 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210829 SPC AC 210829
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6
An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the western Atlantic from Tuesday into Wednesday, as a surface high moves eastward across the eastern U.S. A dry airmass is forecast across most of the U.S., which should be unfavorable for thunderstorms in most areas.
On Thursday, a low is forecast to develop in the northern U.S., as low-level moisture returns quickly northward into the parts of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms will be possible across this unstable airmass, mainly Thursday night, along the southern edge of a passing mid-level jet streak. The greatest potential for severe thunderstorms is expected from the mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley along and near a cold front. At this time, the amount of spread concerning potential outcomes is substantial. An area may need to be added once model solutions begin to agree more, and confidence increases concerning where the greatest severe threat will be.
Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8
On Friday, the front is forecast to move southward across the Tennessee Valley, where isolated to scattered strong thunderstorms will be possible during the day. The front is forecast to move southward to near the Gulf Coast by Saturday. Isolated storms would again be possible near the front. Although the current thinking is that any severe threat will be marginal on Friday and Saturday, uncertainty is substantial due to the extended range in the forecast period.
..Broyles.. 03/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, March 27
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, March 24 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, March 25 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, March 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, March 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, March 28 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210829 SPC AC 210829
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6
An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the western Atlantic from Tuesday into Wednesday, as a surface high moves eastward across the eastern U.S. A dry airmass is forecast across most of the U.S., which should be unfavorable for thunderstorms in most areas.
On Thursday, a low is forecast to develop in the northern U.S., as low-level moisture returns quickly northward into the parts of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms will be possible across this unstable airmass, mainly Thursday night, along the southern edge of a passing mid-level jet streak. The greatest potential for severe thunderstorms is expected from the mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley along and near a cold front. At this time, the amount of spread concerning potential outcomes is substantial. An area may need to be added once model solutions begin to agree more, and confidence increases concerning where the greatest severe threat will be.
Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8
On Friday, the front is forecast to move southward across the Tennessee Valley, where isolated to scattered strong thunderstorms will be possible during the day. The front is forecast to move southward to near the Gulf Coast by Saturday. Isolated storms would again be possible near the front. Although the current thinking is that any severe threat will be marginal on Friday and Saturday, uncertainty is substantial due to the extended range in the forecast period.
..Broyles.. 03/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, March 28
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, March 24 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, March 25 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, March 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, March 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, March 28 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210829 SPC AC 210829
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6
An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the western Atlantic from Tuesday into Wednesday, as a surface high moves eastward across the eastern U.S. A dry airmass is forecast across most of the U.S., which should be unfavorable for thunderstorms in most areas.
On Thursday, a low is forecast to develop in the northern U.S., as low-level moisture returns quickly northward into the parts of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms will be possible across this unstable airmass, mainly Thursday night, along the southern edge of a passing mid-level jet streak. The greatest potential for severe thunderstorms is expected from the mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley along and near a cold front. At this time, the amount of spread concerning potential outcomes is substantial. An area may need to be added once model solutions begin to agree more, and confidence increases concerning where the greatest severe threat will be.
Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8
On Friday, the front is forecast to move southward across the Tennessee Valley, where isolated to scattered strong thunderstorms will be possible during the day. The front is forecast to move southward to near the Gulf Coast by Saturday. Isolated storms would again be possible near the front. Although the current thinking is that any severe threat will be marginal on Friday and Saturday, uncertainty is substantial due to the extended range in the forecast period.
..Broyles.. 03/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, March 21
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Sunday, March 22
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Monday, March 23
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Tuesday, March 24
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, March 25
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, March 26
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, March 27
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, March 28
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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