Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, December 4
Outlook Summary
Severe storms are not forecast in the U.S. today or tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 041248
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Thu Dec 04 2025
Valid 041300Z - 051200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe storms are not forecast in the U.S. today or tonight.
Synopsis and Discussion
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a southern-stream shortwave trough moving through NM, preceded by a extensive fetch of southwesterly flow aloft from the eastern Pacific across the southern Plains and Lower/Mid MS Valley. More confluent, single-stream, moderate to strong mid-level flow exists across the eastern CONUS. The NM shortwave is forecast to progress northeastward, loosing amplitude as it moves into the more confluent flow from the Plains eastward. This shortwave will be displaced well north of any notable low-level moisture.
Recent surface analysis places a low just off the southeast TX Coast, with a warm front extending eastward from this low along the LA coast before pivoting more southeastward into more of central Gulf. Warm-air advection amid this frontal zone is contributing to a broad precipitation shield, with a few deeper embedded updrafts producing lightning, from the Lower MS Valley into southern MS/AL and the FL Panhandle.
The surface low is forecast to progress eastward along the warm front throughout the day, with the warm-air advection showers and thunderstorms progressing eastward as well. The strongest updrafts are expected to remain within the southern periphery of this precipitation shield, largely over the coastal portions of LA, MS, and AL where modest elevated buoyancy is anticipated. Surface-based buoyancy, supported by mid/upper 60s dewpoints, may develop across far southeast LA, with an associated threat for a few stronger, more organized storms. However, localized and brief character of this threat precludes the need for any severe probabilities. Isolated thunderstorms could persist into the evening across southern LA as a cold front moves through, but buoyancy will remain limited with no severe thunderstorms expected.
..Mosier/Jewell.. 12/04/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Friday, December 5
Outlook Summary
Severe storms are not forecast tomorrow (Friday) or Friday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 040654
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Thu Dec 04 2025
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe storms are not forecast tomorrow (Friday) or Friday night.
Synopsis
Broad mid-level troughing will overspread much of the CONUS tomorrow (Friday), prompting a surface trough to impinge on the Great Lakes region while another surface low quickly develops along the northern High Plains. Regardless of the synoptic weather pattern in place, a relatively cool/dry, statically stable airmass will encompass much of the Interior West, to the Plains states, eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard. Therefore, thunderstorm development will be limited across much of the CONUS. The one exception will be along the Gulf Coast. Here, low-level moisture advection, prompted by an approaching upper trough, will supply enough deep-layer ascent amid scant buoyancy (e.g. a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE) for a few thunderstorms through Friday.
..Squitieri.. 12/04/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Saturday, December 6
Outlook Summary
Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast on Saturday. Severe storms are not currently in the forecast.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 040812
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CST Thu Dec 04 2025
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast on Saturday. Severe storms are not currently in the forecast.
Synopsis
A mid-level trough will traverse the Plains and impinge on the Midwest on Saturday, prompting a surface low over the central High Plains to translate southeastward toward the Gulf while weakening. The approach of the weakening low will spur some low-level warm-air advection and return flow along the Gulf shoreline. Buoyancy driven by this moisture however, is forecast to be scant, so mainly isolated thunderstorms are forecast, with severe thunderstorms currently not a concern.
..Squitieri.. 12/04/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Sunday, December 7
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, December 7 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, December 8 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, December 9 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, December 10 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, December 11 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040843 SPC AC 040843
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CST Thu Dec 04 2025
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
A series of mid-level troughs will progress across the CONUS within a broader west-northwesterly to east-southeasterly upper flow regime next week. The orientation of the upper flow will support multiple southeastward surges of cooler, statically stable air, and prevent appreciable moisture return from the Gulf to the CONUS. An overall quiescent severe weather pattern is predicted for the Days 4-8 period, though a few occasional rounds of isolated thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast, where at least scant moisture-driven buoyancy may reside.
..Squitieri.. 12/04/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, December 8
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, December 7 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, December 8 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, December 9 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, December 10 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, December 11 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040843 SPC AC 040843
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CST Thu Dec 04 2025
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
A series of mid-level troughs will progress across the CONUS within a broader west-northwesterly to east-southeasterly upper flow regime next week. The orientation of the upper flow will support multiple southeastward surges of cooler, statically stable air, and prevent appreciable moisture return from the Gulf to the CONUS. An overall quiescent severe weather pattern is predicted for the Days 4-8 period, though a few occasional rounds of isolated thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast, where at least scant moisture-driven buoyancy may reside.
..Squitieri.. 12/04/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, December 9
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, December 7 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, December 8 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, December 9 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, December 10 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, December 11 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040843 SPC AC 040843
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CST Thu Dec 04 2025
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
A series of mid-level troughs will progress across the CONUS within a broader west-northwesterly to east-southeasterly upper flow regime next week. The orientation of the upper flow will support multiple southeastward surges of cooler, statically stable air, and prevent appreciable moisture return from the Gulf to the CONUS. An overall quiescent severe weather pattern is predicted for the Days 4-8 period, though a few occasional rounds of isolated thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast, where at least scant moisture-driven buoyancy may reside.
..Squitieri.. 12/04/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, December 10
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, December 7 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, December 8 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, December 9 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, December 10 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, December 11 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040843 SPC AC 040843
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CST Thu Dec 04 2025
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
A series of mid-level troughs will progress across the CONUS within a broader west-northwesterly to east-southeasterly upper flow regime next week. The orientation of the upper flow will support multiple southeastward surges of cooler, statically stable air, and prevent appreciable moisture return from the Gulf to the CONUS. An overall quiescent severe weather pattern is predicted for the Days 4-8 period, though a few occasional rounds of isolated thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast, where at least scant moisture-driven buoyancy may reside.
..Squitieri.. 12/04/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, December 11
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, December 7 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, December 8 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, December 9 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, December 10 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, December 11 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040843 SPC AC 040843
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CST Thu Dec 04 2025
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
A series of mid-level troughs will progress across the CONUS within a broader west-northwesterly to east-southeasterly upper flow regime next week. The orientation of the upper flow will support multiple southeastward surges of cooler, statically stable air, and prevent appreciable moisture return from the Gulf to the CONUS. An overall quiescent severe weather pattern is predicted for the Days 4-8 period, though a few occasional rounds of isolated thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast, where at least scant moisture-driven buoyancy may reside.
..Squitieri.. 12/04/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, December 4
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Friday, December 5
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Saturday, December 6
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Sunday, December 7
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, December 8
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, December 9
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, December 10
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, December 11
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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