Severe Weather Outlook
Hayley here
- Do you like
lofi music
whatever music Hayley put on
and terrifyingly loud computer voices? Then stop by the 24/7 ish severe weather live stream!
* stats delayed and were probably not accurate to begin with
National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, January 23
Outlook Summary
Scattered weak thunderstorm activity is likely today into tonight across the Texas Big Bend region into central Texas.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 230539
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Scattered weak thunderstorm activity is likely today into tonight across the Texas Big Bend region into central Texas.
Synopsis
Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts increasing ascent across northern Mexico into the Southwest/Big Bend region of TX as an upper low off the southern CA coast begins to slowly shift east. At the surface, a cold front continues to push south across the Plains with modest moisture return ongoing along the TX Coastal Plain. Precipitation is expected to slowly increase from the Big Bend region northeastward into the southern Plains/Ozark Plateau through the day as isentropic ascent strengthens across central TX. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated along and north of the cold front as it impinges on a plume of returning moisture.
Big Bend Region to Central Texas
Moisture return of mid 50s to low 60s dewpoints along and south of the I-10 corridor and into the Big Bend region is expected by evening and should support a swath of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the front across the Edwards Plateau by early evening, spreading east as the front pushes further into the unstable air mass. While a few storms may initially be surface-based, northeastward storm motions will quickly displace any deep convection onto the cool side of the boundary. Wind profiles are expected to strengthen through the day in response to the approaching upper wave, and could support effective shear values on the order of 40 knots. Despite this, a combination of modest buoyancy profiles (lifted indices generally -2 to -3 C), rapid undercutting by the front, and a propensity for storm interactions/upscale growth should largely mitigate the potential for severe convection.
A few CAM solutions, notably the 00z HRRR, hint at the potential for upscale growth of a surface-based convective cluster as it propagates eastward along the front with an attendant threat for damaging winds. While plausible given the aforementioned CAPE/shear parameter space, the lack of supporting signal in other CAM solutions and ensemble/calibrated guidance, along with unfavorable phasing with the diurnal cycle, suggest that this is a relatively low probability scenario.
..Moore/Thornton.. 01/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Saturday, January 24
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated across the U.S. Saturday through Saturday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 230636
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated across the U.S. Saturday through Saturday night.
Synopsis
The mid-level pattern over the CONUS is forecast to amplify significantly this weekend as initially split flow consolidates behind a departing East Coast upper trough. Several short wave perturbations (over the Southwest, northern Mexico, and southern Canada) will gradually consolidate into larger-scale mid-level troughing across the Rockies and Great Plains by late Saturday night.
As upper troughing becomes established, a strong Arctic cold front will rapidly move south with high pressure (1045+ mb) building in its wake. An extensive cold intrusion will occur with significant latitudinal suppression of lee cyclogenesis to far northern Mex and the southern Gulf Coast. This will greatly limit inland moisture return. Still, strong lift in the form of isentropic ascent over top the front will support widespread winter precipitation (some possibly with isolated lightning) over the Plains and south-central US much of Saturday.
South Texas Coast
As the strong Arctic high pressure building over the southern Plains forces the cold front to surge south, the Arctic air mass will rapidly undercut the a remnant warm sector over parts of Far South TX. Strong isentropic ascent over the shallow surface front will allow for modest elevated destabilization. However, poor mid-level lapse rates (6-6.5 C/km) and the overnight arrival of the more consolidated upper ascent should preclude the development of larger buoyancy. Thus, while a stronger storm is briefly possible along the immediate coast or elevated behind the front, the overall severe risk appears quite limited.
..Lyons.. 01/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Sunday, January 25
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible over portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast Sunday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 230830
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible over portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast Sunday.
Synopsis
Intensifying mid-level troughing over the central US will continue to amplify as it moves eastward Sunday. Strong cyclonic flow aloft will overspread portions of the southern US as a second embedded perturbation skirts the central and eastern Gulf Coast before being consolidated into the broader upper trough. Ascent from this shortwave will allow a weak surface low to develop and shift east/northeastward over the Tennessee Valley before moving offshore of the Carolina coast early Monday. Attendant to the low, a strong arctic cold front will sweep eastward across the southern CONUS. Modified Gulf moisture will be in place, supporting weak instability and some potential for strong to severe storms.
Gulf Coast
As the surface low moves onshore and deepens ahead of the advancing shortwave early Sunday, inland moisture advection (60s F surface dewpoints) is expected to increase over southeastern LA into southern MS/AL and the western FL Panhandle in the wake of a surface warm front lifting northward. Ongoing elevated convection near the advancing cold front will likely encounter a warming/moistening boundary layer sufficient for some intensification through the day across south-central AL into the FL panhandle and southwestern GA.
Increasing southwesterly flow aloft (EBWD of 50-60 kt) will be favorable for some storm organization amidst weak buoyancy (MLCAPE ~ 500 J/kg). A broken band of storms along the cold front may pose a risk for isolated damaging gusts and brief tornado where the boundary layer can destabilize sufficiently inland south of the prominent cold air intrusion/damming and ongoing winter weather. The cold front will then continue offshore overnight with the severe risk diminishing as a much colder air mass envelops the eastern CONUS.
..Lyons.. 01/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Monday, January 26
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, January 26 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, January 27 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, January 28 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, January 29 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, January 30 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230953 SPC AC 230953
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 311200Z
DISCUSSION
Amplified mid-level flow will persist over the US through next week with troughing generally over the East and a building ridge to the West. This will favor continued northwesterly flow aloft and reinforcement of an extensive cold air outbreak and Arctic high pressure over the lower 48. With little to no inland moisture transport expected over the next week, severe weather is unlikely.
..Lyons.. 01/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, January 27
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, January 26 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, January 27 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, January 28 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, January 29 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, January 30 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230953 SPC AC 230953
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 311200Z
DISCUSSION
Amplified mid-level flow will persist over the US through next week with troughing generally over the East and a building ridge to the West. This will favor continued northwesterly flow aloft and reinforcement of an extensive cold air outbreak and Arctic high pressure over the lower 48. With little to no inland moisture transport expected over the next week, severe weather is unlikely.
..Lyons.. 01/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, January 28
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, January 26 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, January 27 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, January 28 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, January 29 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, January 30 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230953 SPC AC 230953
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 311200Z
DISCUSSION
Amplified mid-level flow will persist over the US through next week with troughing generally over the East and a building ridge to the West. This will favor continued northwesterly flow aloft and reinforcement of an extensive cold air outbreak and Arctic high pressure over the lower 48. With little to no inland moisture transport expected over the next week, severe weather is unlikely.
..Lyons.. 01/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, January 29
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, January 26 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, January 27 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, January 28 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, January 29 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, January 30 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230953 SPC AC 230953
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 311200Z
DISCUSSION
Amplified mid-level flow will persist over the US through next week with troughing generally over the East and a building ridge to the West. This will favor continued northwesterly flow aloft and reinforcement of an extensive cold air outbreak and Arctic high pressure over the lower 48. With little to no inland moisture transport expected over the next week, severe weather is unlikely.
..Lyons.. 01/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, January 30
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, January 26 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, January 27 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, January 28 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, January 29 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, January 30 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230953 SPC AC 230953
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 311200Z
DISCUSSION
Amplified mid-level flow will persist over the US through next week with troughing generally over the East and a building ridge to the West. This will favor continued northwesterly flow aloft and reinforcement of an extensive cold air outbreak and Arctic high pressure over the lower 48. With little to no inland moisture transport expected over the next week, severe weather is unlikely.
..Lyons.. 01/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, January 23
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Saturday, January 24
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Sunday, January 25
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Monday, January 26
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, January 27
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, January 28
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, January 29
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, January 30
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Your Severe Outlook
Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.
Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.
Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.
About Severe Weather Outlook . com
SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.
- tornado hq - live severe weather warnings
- cyclocane - hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones
- tornado solitaire - play cards while you monitor the US severe weather threat
- tertremo - live view of earthquakes around the world
- earthquake solitaire - get live earthquake updates as you play your favorite card game