Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, December 29
Outlook Summary
A few thunderstorms may be noted across the lower Rio Grande Valley very early in the period.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 290521
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
A few thunderstorms may be noted across the lower Rio Grande Valley very early in the period.
Lower Rio Grande Valley
Surface front is surging south across south central TX late this evening as pressures build over the central/southern Plains. Latest model guidance suggests the wind shift will reach the international border around 12z, then quickly advance deep into northeast Mexico. A narrow band of shallow convection is currently noted along the front as far west as Wilson county TX. Forecast soundings for deep South TX at the start of the period suggest both pre frontal and post frontal parcels will exhibit sufficient buoyancy for the strongest updrafts to possibly penetrate levels necessary for lightning discharge. Any post frontal lightning threat should be over by 15z.
..Darrow/Squitieri.. 12/29/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Tuesday, December 30
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms will not occur on Tuesday or Tuesday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 290532
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms will not occur on Tuesday or Tuesday night.
Discussion
Conditions will be too dry/stable for lightning-producing convection across the CONUS through the period.
..Grams.. 12/29/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Wednesday, December 31
Outlook Summary
Isolated thunderstorms are possible late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning along coastal southern California.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 290634
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated thunderstorms are possible late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning along coastal southern California.
Southern CA
A retrograding cutoff low currently near the central/southern CA coast is consistently progged to eject back northeastward as a shortwave trough towards the southern CA coast on Wednesday night. Ahead of this trough, sufficient 850-700 mb moisture within the modest warm conveyor combined with weak mid-level cooling may yield scant elevated buoyancy by the 06-12Z period. This could support a threat of isolated thunderstorms, mainly early morning Thursday.
..Grams.. 12/29/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Thursday, January 1
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, December 31 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Thursday, January 1 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, January 2 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, January 3 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, January 4 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280838 SPC AC 280838
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
Return flow will ensue along the western Gulf Coast mid-week, yielding air mass modification from the prior continental intrusion. Bulk of deterministic guidance has trended toward earlier EC-AIFS signals of a low-amplitude shortwave trough progressing east across the southern states through late week. While run-to-run predictability and spread across models remains subpar, convective potential should increase by D6-7/Friday-Saturday across parts of the Gulf Coast States. At this point, with only modest cyclogenesis consistently progged, overall severe potential still appears marginal. Latest ML guidance from SPC-CSU and NSSL for the GEFS, and yesterday's NCAR for the ECENS, support this notion with individual day probabilities holding at 5 percent or less.
..Grams.. 12/28/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, January 2
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, December 31 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Thursday, January 1 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, January 2 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, January 3 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, January 4 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280838 SPC AC 280838
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
Return flow will ensue along the western Gulf Coast mid-week, yielding air mass modification from the prior continental intrusion. Bulk of deterministic guidance has trended toward earlier EC-AIFS signals of a low-amplitude shortwave trough progressing east across the southern states through late week. While run-to-run predictability and spread across models remains subpar, convective potential should increase by D6-7/Friday-Saturday across parts of the Gulf Coast States. At this point, with only modest cyclogenesis consistently progged, overall severe potential still appears marginal. Latest ML guidance from SPC-CSU and NSSL for the GEFS, and yesterday's NCAR for the ECENS, support this notion with individual day probabilities holding at 5 percent or less.
..Grams.. 12/28/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, January 3
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, December 31 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Thursday, January 1 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, January 2 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, January 3 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, January 4 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280838 SPC AC 280838
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
Return flow will ensue along the western Gulf Coast mid-week, yielding air mass modification from the prior continental intrusion. Bulk of deterministic guidance has trended toward earlier EC-AIFS signals of a low-amplitude shortwave trough progressing east across the southern states through late week. While run-to-run predictability and spread across models remains subpar, convective potential should increase by D6-7/Friday-Saturday across parts of the Gulf Coast States. At this point, with only modest cyclogenesis consistently progged, overall severe potential still appears marginal. Latest ML guidance from SPC-CSU and NSSL for the GEFS, and yesterday's NCAR for the ECENS, support this notion with individual day probabilities holding at 5 percent or less.
..Grams.. 12/28/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, January 4
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, December 31 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Thursday, January 1 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, January 2 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, January 3 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, January 4 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280838 SPC AC 280838
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
Return flow will ensue along the western Gulf Coast mid-week, yielding air mass modification from the prior continental intrusion. Bulk of deterministic guidance has trended toward earlier EC-AIFS signals of a low-amplitude shortwave trough progressing east across the southern states through late week. While run-to-run predictability and spread across models remains subpar, convective potential should increase by D6-7/Friday-Saturday across parts of the Gulf Coast States. At this point, with only modest cyclogenesis consistently progged, overall severe potential still appears marginal. Latest ML guidance from SPC-CSU and NSSL for the GEFS, and yesterday's NCAR for the ECENS, support this notion with individual day probabilities holding at 5 percent or less.
..Grams.. 12/28/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, December 29
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, December 30
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Wednesday, December 31
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Thursday, January 1
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, January 2
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, January 3
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, January 4
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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