Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, October 3
Outlook Summary
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 031946
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Sat Oct 03 2026
Valid 032000Z - 041200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
20z Update
Only minor adjustments were made to thunder to account for recent trends. Please see previous discussion below.
..Thornton.. 10/03/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2026/
Synopsis and Discussion
A shortwave trough embedded within the mid-level westerlies across the northern CONUS will continue to track quickly eastward across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. Showers and low-topped thunderstorms ongoing over parts of the Dakotas will spread into MN this afternoon. Low-level moisture will remain quite limited (surface dewpoints generally in the 40s), but a pocket of weak instability should support occasional lightning flashes with this activity. Convectively enhanced wind gusts may occur as low-level lapse rates gradually steepen this afternoon, but the overall risk for severe winds is expected to remain low owing to the minimal instability forecast.
A nearly stationary surface front extending from south/coastal TX into the Southeast and Carolinas will once again serve as a focus for thunderstorms this afternoon as diurnal heating of a moist airmass occurs across these regions. Generally poor lapse rates aloft and weak deep-layer shear should limit the threat for organized severe thunderstorms through tonight. A greater concentration of convection may focus along/near the central Gulf Coast, as a weak mid/upper-level wave centered over the Bay of Campeche aids northward low-level moisture transport across this region through the period. Still, low-level winds should remain weak, and current expectations are for this convection to be disorganized.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Sunday, October 4
Outlook Summary
Severe storms are not forecast for Sunday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 031716
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 PM CDT Sat Oct 03 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe storms are not forecast for Sunday.
Synopsis
An upper low over southern Canada is forecast to intensify as it traverses the northern and eastern Great Lakes. A leading shortwave trough will quickly move from the eastern Lakes into the Northeast, with an attendant portion of the surface cold front moving quickly offshore. The remainder of the front will gradually move southward with cooler temperatures and high pressure developing in its wake over the central US.
Ahead of the front from east TX, to the Gulf Coast States and far eastern Atlantic shores, a seasonably warm and very moist air mass will support modest diurnal destabilization with MLCAPE generally less than 1000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are expected through the day ahead of the front and along typical sea-breeze boundaries. However, very weak mid-level lapse rates and little deep-layer shear suggests storm organization will be minimal. While a sporadic wet microburst is possible with the stronger forecast storm clusters (near and just offshore southern AL/FL Coasts), severe potential is expected to remain low.
To the west, shortwave ridging will persist, forcing northwesterly flow aloft and stable conditions over much of the CONUS. Isolated thunderstorms may occur over a small part of central/southwest CO where cooler mid-level temperatures are expected near the higher terrain. However, minimal instability will limit storm intensity.
..Lyons.. 10/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Monday, October 5
Outlook Summary
Severe storms are unlikely across the USA on Monday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 031920
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Sat Oct 03 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe storms are unlikely across the USA on Monday.
Synopsis
An upper low will continue to intensify as it moves quickly eastward over the Northeast States and eventually offshore on Monday. In the wake of the wave, northwesterly flow aloft will intensify as expansive ridging develops across the central US. A surface cold front near the Gulf Coast will continue to meander southward, with high pressure and subsequent northeasterly low-level winds behind it. Robust moisture will remain confined to the Gulf Coast states, but with only weak instability and vertical shear overlap. Thus, scatted thunderstorms are likely, but with little to no severe potential.
Elsewhere, cool mid-level temperatures and steep mid-level lapse rates (8-8.5 C/km) beneath an upper-level shortwave trough may support isolated thunderstorms across portions of the northern Great Basin late Monday into early Tuesday. However, limited moisture and buoyancy suggest overall coverage/intensity will remain limited.
..Lyons.. 10/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Tuesday, October 6
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, October 6 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, October 7 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, October 8 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, October 9 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, October 10 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030740 SPC AC 030740
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2026
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe weather potential is forecast to be low across the CONUS through the period.
Northwest flow aloft is forecast to persist from the northern Rockies & Plains eastward into the northeastern states. Periodic embedded waves and associated frontal intrusions will maintain a relatively stable air mass across the same areas, while the more substantial low-level moisture and instability remain largely over the Gulf of America and western Atlantic Ocean.
Some low-end thunderstorm potential will be possible late Thur/D6 into Fri/D7 over the Upper Midwest, with primarily late day/evening elevated thunderstorms possible as the large-scale trough over eastern Canada starts to lift, and low-level warm advection occurs over the northern Plains.
..Jewell.. 10/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, October 7
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, October 6 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, October 7 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, October 8 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, October 9 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, October 10 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030740 SPC AC 030740
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2026
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe weather potential is forecast to be low across the CONUS through the period.
Northwest flow aloft is forecast to persist from the northern Rockies & Plains eastward into the northeastern states. Periodic embedded waves and associated frontal intrusions will maintain a relatively stable air mass across the same areas, while the more substantial low-level moisture and instability remain largely over the Gulf of America and western Atlantic Ocean.
Some low-end thunderstorm potential will be possible late Thur/D6 into Fri/D7 over the Upper Midwest, with primarily late day/evening elevated thunderstorms possible as the large-scale trough over eastern Canada starts to lift, and low-level warm advection occurs over the northern Plains.
..Jewell.. 10/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, October 8
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, October 6 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, October 7 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, October 8 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, October 9 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, October 10 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030740 SPC AC 030740
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2026
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe weather potential is forecast to be low across the CONUS through the period.
Northwest flow aloft is forecast to persist from the northern Rockies & Plains eastward into the northeastern states. Periodic embedded waves and associated frontal intrusions will maintain a relatively stable air mass across the same areas, while the more substantial low-level moisture and instability remain largely over the Gulf of America and western Atlantic Ocean.
Some low-end thunderstorm potential will be possible late Thur/D6 into Fri/D7 over the Upper Midwest, with primarily late day/evening elevated thunderstorms possible as the large-scale trough over eastern Canada starts to lift, and low-level warm advection occurs over the northern Plains.
..Jewell.. 10/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, October 9
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, October 6 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, October 7 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, October 8 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, October 9 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, October 10 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030740 SPC AC 030740
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2026
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe weather potential is forecast to be low across the CONUS through the period.
Northwest flow aloft is forecast to persist from the northern Rockies & Plains eastward into the northeastern states. Periodic embedded waves and associated frontal intrusions will maintain a relatively stable air mass across the same areas, while the more substantial low-level moisture and instability remain largely over the Gulf of America and western Atlantic Ocean.
Some low-end thunderstorm potential will be possible late Thur/D6 into Fri/D7 over the Upper Midwest, with primarily late day/evening elevated thunderstorms possible as the large-scale trough over eastern Canada starts to lift, and low-level warm advection occurs over the northern Plains.
..Jewell.. 10/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, October 10
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, October 6 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, October 7 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, October 8 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, October 9 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, October 10 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030740 SPC AC 030740
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2026
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe weather potential is forecast to be low across the CONUS through the period.
Northwest flow aloft is forecast to persist from the northern Rockies & Plains eastward into the northeastern states. Periodic embedded waves and associated frontal intrusions will maintain a relatively stable air mass across the same areas, while the more substantial low-level moisture and instability remain largely over the Gulf of America and western Atlantic Ocean.
Some low-end thunderstorm potential will be possible late Thur/D6 into Fri/D7 over the Upper Midwest, with primarily late day/evening elevated thunderstorms possible as the large-scale trough over eastern Canada starts to lift, and low-level warm advection occurs over the northern Plains.
..Jewell.. 10/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, October 3
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Sunday, October 4
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Monday, October 5
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Tuesday, October 6
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, October 7
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, October 8
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, October 9
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, October 10
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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