Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, May 7
Outlook Summary
Severe storms are not expected through tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 080035
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 PM CDT Thu May 07 2026
Valid 080100Z - 081200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe storms are not expected through tonight.
MT/WY
Forcing for ascent attendant to a short-wave trough moving southeast through the region has fostered widely scattered thunderstorms from portions of northwest MT into central WY as of 00z. Moisture is limited, but the presence of steep lapse rates (ref. 00z RIW sounding) may be sufficient to support briefly strong storms capable of gusty winds and/or small hail for the next couple of hours.
Carolinas
A small cluster of showers and thunderstorms is ongoing across parts of southern and central NC along a cold front settling south through the area. Weakening, low-level lapse rates and resultant instability should limit any severe-weather threat as the convection continues east tonight.
LA
A few thunderstorms have recently developed in the vicinity of the surface front in far southeast LA amidst a moist low-level air mass. The 00z LIX sounding located to the immediate north of the front sampled MUCAPE of around 1500 J/kg for parcels lifted from around 1 KM. Moreover, deep-layer shear remains strong (effective bulk shear of 60 kt), which would conditionally support some storm organization. Current thinking is that nebulous forcing for ascent and poor low/mid-level lapse rates will tend to limit updraft vigor in an otherwise seemingly favorable, severe-storm environment. As such, no severe-weather probabilities will be included for this forecast.
Southern AZ/NM into TX
Isolated thunderstorms remain possible overnight from southern parts of AZ and NM into western and southern TX, near and ahead of a mid-level low drifting east across Sonora and Chihuahua, Mexico.
..Mead.. 05/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Friday, May 8
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Friday through Friday night from parts of Oklahoma/Texas into the Ozarks, lower Mississippi Valley, and Gulf Coast states. Occasional large hail and damaging gusts should be the main threats.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 071725
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Thu May 07 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS…LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY…AND GULF COAST STATES
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Friday through Friday night from parts of Oklahoma/Texas into the Ozarks, lower Mississippi Valley, and Gulf Coast states. Occasional large hail and damaging gusts should be the main threats.
Synopsis
With an upper low forecast to remain over Hudson Bay, a mid/upper-level shortwave trough should develop southeastward Friday across much of the northern/central Plains into the upper/mid MS Valley. Shallow/limited low-level moisture will advance northward across the southern Plains into the Ozarks ahead of a southeastward-moving surface cold front. An initially separate mid-level low over northern Mexico Friday morning should devlove into an open wave through the day as it slowly shifts eastward into TX through Friday evening. Greater low-level moisture (mid 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints) should spread northward through the period across TX into the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast states along an effective warm front, with a weak surface low forecast to develop over northwest TX by early Friday evening. A surface dryline extending south-southwestward from this low across west TX towards the Big Bend is forecast to gradually sharpen through the day.
Oklahoma/Southeast Kansas into Missouri/Arkansas
Even with the somewhat limited low-level moisture expected ahead of the cold front by Friday afternoon, the presence of modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates and daytime heating should contribute to around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE in a narrow corridor along/near the front. Large-scale ascent associated with the mid/upper-level shortwave trough should aid in the development of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across northern OK into the MO Ozarks by late Friday afternoon. With moderate to locally strong deep-layer shear aiding updraft organization, the strongest cores could produce occasional severe hail and/or damaging winds through Friday evening as they track east-southeastward before eventually weakening with the loss of daytime heating. Confidence in a more focused severe corridor across this region remains too low for a categorical upgrade with this update, mainly due to the limited moisture/instability forecast.
Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast
Thunderstorms should form by late Friday afternoon/early evening across the higher terrain of north-central/northeast Mexico, as large-scale ascent preceding the southern-stream upper low/trough overspreads this area. A rather moist low-level airmass will be in place across south-central TX along/south of a warm front. While some MLCIN will likely persist through peak heating, it appears that moderate to locally strong MUCAPE coupled with around 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear will support organized convection, including the potential for supercells. While some uncertainty remains regarding how may supercells may develop eastward from Mexico into south-central TX, the favorable environment supports inclusion of 5% hail/wind probabilities and a Marginal Risk.
Large-scale forcing appears more nebulous/weak across north/central TX in between the surface cold front in OK and the upper low/trough in northern Mexico. Daytime heating should help erode MLCIN along/near the dryline in northwest/north-central to west-central TX, and the cap does not appear overly strong across these areas. Still, considerable uncertainty remains whether sustained surface-based convection will occur Friday afternoon/evening along/east of the dryline in TX. Even so, have expanded the Marginal Risk southward to account for a conditional hail/wind threat if convection initiates.
Farther east into the lower MS Valley and Gulf Coast states, some guidance suggests robust thunderstorms may form through the day mainly along/north of the remnant front. This activity will likely be related to small-scale mid-level perturbations and weak low-level warm advection. Sufficient MUCAPE amid strong deep-layer shear may support organized cells/clusters capable of producing both isolated severe hail and occasional damaging winds. Other strong to severe convection may form Friday afternoon along the Atlantic Coast sea breeze in northeast/east-central FL. The potential for additional robust convection Friday night into early Saturday morning across the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley remains unclear. But, some chance for persistent convection amid a gradually destabilizing airmass and strengthening low-level warm/moist advection suggests at least an isolated severe hail/wind risk may linger through the overnight hours.
..Gleason.. 05/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Saturday, May 9
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across parts of the southern/central Plains, and from east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 071922
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Thu May 07 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS…AND FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across parts of the southern/central Plains, and from east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast.
Southern/Central Plains
Within large-scale upper troughing encompassing much of the central/eastern CONUS and Canada, a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to develop southeastward from the northern Rockies/High Plains towards the central High Plains by Saturday evening. Weak lee cyclogenesis should occur over the southern/central High Plains, with modest low-level moisture forecast to return northward across north TX into OK to the east of a surface dryline. High-based convection should develop Saturday afternoon across eastern CO into western KS, with locally gusty winds possible.
A somewhat greater severe wind and hail risk should exist late Saturday afternoon and evening across the eastern TX Panhandle, southwest KS, and into OK where weak to locally moderate instability should be in place. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty how far north greater low-level moisture and related instability will advance, but any cells that can form could pose an isolated threat for large hail and damaging winds given sufficient deep-layer shear for modest updraft organization. Have expanded the Marginal Risk a bit in OK and the eastern TX Panhandle to account for potential surface-based development along the dryline, and for a possible cluster/MCS Saturday evening.
East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast
Thunderstorms should be ongoing at the start of the period Saturday morning across parts of the lower MS Valley/Southeast. This activity may tend to remain elevated to the north of a surface front through Saturday morning. But, increasing potential for surface-based thunderstorms should exist as daytime heating along/south of the front occurs, and as a weak mid-level shortwave trough advances eastward from east TX into the northern Gulf and vicinity. One or more clusters may eventually evolve and pose some risk for damaging winds as they spread east-southeastward across parts of the lower MS Valley/Southeast through the afternoon and early evening. Isolated severe hail may also occur with somewhat more discrete convection across portions of east TX into LA, where steeper mid-level lapse rates and greater instability are forecast to exist.
..Gleason.. 05/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Sunday, May 10
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, May 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, May 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, May 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, May 14 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070728 SPC AC 070728
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper-level pattern is forecast during the Day 4-8/Sun-Thu period. Early in the period, an upper trough will move from the Plains to the eastern U.S. through Day 5/Mon. Stronger northwesterly flow will overspread the Plains during this time, while a cold front will sag southward across TX and Gulf Coast states. This will suppress boundary layer moisture across much of the CONUS, but could bring some potential for strong thunderstorms to parts of TX and the Southeast, though severe thunderstorm potential appears marginal.
By Day 6/Tue, a deepening surface low is forecast across the central Plains as a weak shortwave impulse migrating through northwesterly flow aloft glaces the region. Increasing southerly low-level flow will begin to transport Gulf moisture northward across portions of the central U.S. through Day 7/Wed, and some increase in thunderstorm potential is expected. At the same time an upper ridge will begin to emerge over the Plains, which could lead to capping. Additionally, quality of moisture return is uncertain with northward extent. Overall, severe potential appears marginal throughout the Day 4-8/Sun-Thu period.
..Leitman.. 05/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, May 11
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, May 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, May 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, May 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, May 14 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070728 SPC AC 070728
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper-level pattern is forecast during the Day 4-8/Sun-Thu period. Early in the period, an upper trough will move from the Plains to the eastern U.S. through Day 5/Mon. Stronger northwesterly flow will overspread the Plains during this time, while a cold front will sag southward across TX and Gulf Coast states. This will suppress boundary layer moisture across much of the CONUS, but could bring some potential for strong thunderstorms to parts of TX and the Southeast, though severe thunderstorm potential appears marginal.
By Day 6/Tue, a deepening surface low is forecast across the central Plains as a weak shortwave impulse migrating through northwesterly flow aloft glaces the region. Increasing southerly low-level flow will begin to transport Gulf moisture northward across portions of the central U.S. through Day 7/Wed, and some increase in thunderstorm potential is expected. At the same time an upper ridge will begin to emerge over the Plains, which could lead to capping. Additionally, quality of moisture return is uncertain with northward extent. Overall, severe potential appears marginal throughout the Day 4-8/Sun-Thu period.
..Leitman.. 05/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, May 12
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, May 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, May 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, May 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, May 14 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070728 SPC AC 070728
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper-level pattern is forecast during the Day 4-8/Sun-Thu period. Early in the period, an upper trough will move from the Plains to the eastern U.S. through Day 5/Mon. Stronger northwesterly flow will overspread the Plains during this time, while a cold front will sag southward across TX and Gulf Coast states. This will suppress boundary layer moisture across much of the CONUS, but could bring some potential for strong thunderstorms to parts of TX and the Southeast, though severe thunderstorm potential appears marginal.
By Day 6/Tue, a deepening surface low is forecast across the central Plains as a weak shortwave impulse migrating through northwesterly flow aloft glaces the region. Increasing southerly low-level flow will begin to transport Gulf moisture northward across portions of the central U.S. through Day 7/Wed, and some increase in thunderstorm potential is expected. At the same time an upper ridge will begin to emerge over the Plains, which could lead to capping. Additionally, quality of moisture return is uncertain with northward extent. Overall, severe potential appears marginal throughout the Day 4-8/Sun-Thu period.
..Leitman.. 05/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, May 13
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, May 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, May 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, May 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, May 14 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070728 SPC AC 070728
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper-level pattern is forecast during the Day 4-8/Sun-Thu period. Early in the period, an upper trough will move from the Plains to the eastern U.S. through Day 5/Mon. Stronger northwesterly flow will overspread the Plains during this time, while a cold front will sag southward across TX and Gulf Coast states. This will suppress boundary layer moisture across much of the CONUS, but could bring some potential for strong thunderstorms to parts of TX and the Southeast, though severe thunderstorm potential appears marginal.
By Day 6/Tue, a deepening surface low is forecast across the central Plains as a weak shortwave impulse migrating through northwesterly flow aloft glaces the region. Increasing southerly low-level flow will begin to transport Gulf moisture northward across portions of the central U.S. through Day 7/Wed, and some increase in thunderstorm potential is expected. At the same time an upper ridge will begin to emerge over the Plains, which could lead to capping. Additionally, quality of moisture return is uncertain with northward extent. Overall, severe potential appears marginal throughout the Day 4-8/Sun-Thu period.
..Leitman.. 05/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, May 14
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, May 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, May 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, May 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, May 14 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070728 SPC AC 070728
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper-level pattern is forecast during the Day 4-8/Sun-Thu period. Early in the period, an upper trough will move from the Plains to the eastern U.S. through Day 5/Mon. Stronger northwesterly flow will overspread the Plains during this time, while a cold front will sag southward across TX and Gulf Coast states. This will suppress boundary layer moisture across much of the CONUS, but could bring some potential for strong thunderstorms to parts of TX and the Southeast, though severe thunderstorm potential appears marginal.
By Day 6/Tue, a deepening surface low is forecast across the central Plains as a weak shortwave impulse migrating through northwesterly flow aloft glaces the region. Increasing southerly low-level flow will begin to transport Gulf moisture northward across portions of the central U.S. through Day 7/Wed, and some increase in thunderstorm potential is expected. At the same time an upper ridge will begin to emerge over the Plains, which could lead to capping. Additionally, quality of moisture return is uncertain with northward extent. Overall, severe potential appears marginal throughout the Day 4-8/Sun-Thu period.
..Leitman.. 05/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, May 7
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Friday, May 8
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Saturday, May 9
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Sunday, May 10
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, May 11
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, May 12
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, May 13
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, May 14
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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