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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Friday, June 5

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected to develop late this afternoon and evening from parts of the central Plains into the mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. Strong to severe wind gusts and hail will also be possible in parts of the upper Mississippi Valley.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 051629

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026

Valid 051630Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NEBRASKA/KANSAS INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS…AND FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected to develop late this afternoon and evening from parts of the central Plains into the mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. Strong to severe wind gusts and hail will also be possible in parts of the upper Mississippi Valley.

Central Plains into the Mid MS Valley

Morning surface analysis places a low over northwest KS, near the intersection of weak lee troughing and the western edge of a remnant outflow boundary extending across southern NE. Upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints are already in place east/southeast of this surface low and outflow boundary. Southerly/southeasterly flow will persist throughout the day, maintaining a large fetch of low-level moisture advection from the southern Plains into the Mid MS Valley. Steeper mid-level lapse rates are also emerging out of the central High Plains, spreading gradually eastward over these moist low-levels throughout the day. As a result, a corridor of strong to very strong buoyancy is anticipated from south-central NE/north-central KS along the IA/MO border into far west-central IL by the late afternoon.

Expectation is that the outflow boundary will gradually retreat northward while the cold front progresses slowly southeastward across SD and NE. Convective initiation is anticipated along both of these boundaries, beginning over north-central KS/south-central NE near the surface low at the outflow boundary/cold front intersection. Most guidance indicates this initiation will occur after 00Z, but earlier initiation appears possible given moist low-levels, robust heating, and mesoscale convergence. Recent RAP soundings indicate minimal convective initiation by 21Z.

Once initiation occurs, strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg) will support intense updrafts capable of large to isolated very large hail. Modest deep-layer shear (i.e. effective bulk shear less than 30 kt) could limit storm organization, with a trend towards a more outflow-dominant mode. The generally modest mid-level flow also suggests upscale growth into an organized convective line is low. Even so, a combination of convergence along the outflow and/or cold front, as well as modest warm-air advection, will contribute to additional storm development eastward into the Mid MS Valley.

Upper Midwest

Recent surface analysis shows a cold front extending from north-central WI southwestward through central SD. A low exists along this boundary near the ND/SD/WI border intersection. This low is forecast to track eastward along the front as it gradually shifts southeastward, moving in tandem with a shortwave trough moving through the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Buoyancy will be more limited here than areas farther south, but still sufficient for a few stronger, more organized storms, particularly since the deep-layer vertical shear will be stronger. Discrete storms with large hail as the primary risk are possible early in the convective cycle. Thereafter, a trend towards more bowing segments with damaging gusts is expected. Multiple rounds of storms are possible, and the overall coverage is expected to be high enough to merit introducing 15% hail and wind probabilities.

Lower MI

An MCV (associated with an overnight MCS) is moving across northern IL/far southern WI this morning. Activity associated with this MCV is currently weak and non-severe, but potential for re-intensification exists this afternoon as activity moves into northern IN and southern lower MI. Cloud cover introduces some uncertainty regarding daytime heating and resultant buoyancy. However, if sufficient daytime heating can occur, steep lapse rates and mesoscale organization of the MCS could result in sporadic damaging winds.

..Mosier/Chalmers.. 06/05/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

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Outlook for Saturday, June 6

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds are possible from portions of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into the Northeast, and over the northern High Plains. More isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging winds are possible across parts of the southern Plains and the lower Missouri Valley into Mid Mississippi Valley.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 051729

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds are possible from portions of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into the Northeast, and over the northern High Plains. More isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging winds are possible across parts of the southern Plains and the lower Missouri Valley into Mid Mississippi Valley.

Synopsis

The mid-level pattern will amplify on Saturday with a ridge building across the Upper Midwest into central Canada with an amplifying trough across the Northeast and another trough across the Northwest. A surface low will deepen across southern Quebec during the day with a cold front extending into the Ohio Valley. A lee cyclone will also develop across eastern Montana as the mid-level trough advances eastward.

Ohio Valley to the Northeast

A cluster of storms will likely be ongoing Saturday morning across parts of the Ohio Valley. These storms should gradually weaken through the morning as they move east. West-southwesterly low-level flow will strengthen through the morning as the surface low deepens and the pressure gradient tightens. This will result in moisture advection ahead of the cold front from Ohio into Pennsylvania and New York. Clouds from morning convection will limit destabilization initially, however, once these clouds clear, an uncapped environment with moderate instability is expected to develop rather quickly along the cold front. Continued mid-level ascent and convergence along the front should support thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Moderate (40 knot) flow aloft should support storm organization including the potential for supercells and linear clusters. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats. More widespread wind damage may occur from far eastern Ohio across Pennsylvania and into southeast New York and northern New Jersey where the strongest instability and shear will be present and a broken line of storms appears likely.

Northeast Montana and northwest North Dakota

Destabilization will occur during the day across eastern Montana and western North Dakota as southeasterly surface winds strengthen ahead of the deepening lee cyclone and advect low 60s dewpoints into the region. As height falls overspread this area, storms are expected to develop by mid afternoon across central and southeast Montana. As these storms move into the greater instability to the east/northeast, the large hail/severe wind threat is expected to increase. The strong surface heating and steep low-mid level lapse rates across the northern Plains, combined with the increasing shear, will provide an environment supporting 70-80 mph wind gusts. In fact some guidance, such as the 12Z NSSL WRF, show an MCS with a 80+ knot rear-inflow jet which could support 80+ mph wind gusts if it were to materialize.

Southern Plains

A moist environment with 70+F dewpoints will be present across the southern Plains on Saturday. Moderate instability is forecast as temperatures cool aloft with a weak mid-level shortwave trough overspreading the area. This moist, unstable airmass and 30 to 35 knots of shear will support organized storms including a few supercells capable of isolated large hail and/or water-loaded downbursts.

..Bentley.. 06/05/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Sunday, June 7

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe storms capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are possible across the northern Plains. More isolated severe storms capable locally damaging wind gusts may occur across portions of the Mid-Atlantic.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 051922

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe storms capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are possible across the northern Plains. More isolated severe storms capable locally damaging wind gusts may occur across portions of the Mid-Atlantic.

Synopsis

On Sunday, a mid-level trough will move from the East Coast to the Atlantic with a strong ridge across the Great Lakes. A large scale trough will be in place across the western CONUS with an embedded shortwave trough moving from the Northwest to the northern Rockies through the day. At the surface, a lee trough will extend along the High Plains from eastern Montana to West Texas.

Northern Plains and Vicinity

Moderate to strong instability will develop across the northern Plains with mid to upper 60s dewpoints. Farther west, wrap-around moisture will result in modest destabilization into northeast Wyoming and eastern Montana. Storms will first develop in this area. While instability will be less within this zone, stronger mid-level flow will support storm organization including the potential for supercells. Large hail and severe wind gusts will be the primary threat. In addition to this activity, additional storms are expected along the dryline/front in central North Dakota where instability will be greatest and temperatures are expected to warm into the upper 80s to low 90s.

Portions of the Mid-Atlantic

Diurnal heating and upper 60s dewpoints will support modest destabilization ahead of the surface front across eastern Virginia and vicinity on Sunday. Mid-level forcing associated with the southeastward moving trough will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening. Damaging winds will be the primary threat from these storms with the threat expected to wane after sunset.

..Bentley.. 06/05/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Monday, June 8

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050852 SPC AC 050852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

DISCUSSION

Day4/Monday

Ensemble mean and deterministic model solutions are in generally good agreement in the progression of a lead short-wave trough into central Canada, ahead of an upstream trough evolving along the West Coast. That pattern evolution will result in rising mid-level heights across the northern and central High Plains. At the surface, a cold front initially from the ND-MN Red River Valley into central High Plains will weaken through the day in response to falling pressures over the Rockies.

A reservoir of strong instability is forecast to the south of the decaying front across lower elevations of KS and OK into western MO. There is some model signal for early-day storms over NE to grow upscale into an MCS while moving through the Ozarks. Additional diurnally enhanced storms also appear possible across the central High Plains. The MCS scenario will be contingent on mesoscale processes not readily evident at this time, while the High Plains storms may be fairly isolated. As such, no area will be delineated.

### Day5/Tuesday

The ensemble mean solutions are in relatively good agreement in the continued amplification of the mid-level trough over the western U.S., with strengthening southwest flow aloft overspreading the northern High Plains. The deterministic models indicate a short-wave trough and associated mid-level jet streak moving from the trough base into the northern and central High Plains Tuesday night. At the surface, there is good ensemble clustering in a deepening lee cyclone over the northern High Plains, with that feature moving into the Dakotas by Wednesday morning. That cyclone will be attended by a cold or Pacific front moving out of the northern Rockies. The models suggest that ample instability will reside ahead of the surface low and frontal system, with the strengthening vertical shear contributing to the potential for an organized severe-weather episode over parts of the northern Plains Tuesday afternoon into night.

Day6/Wednesday

The ensembles indicate the primary trough axis across the northern Intermountain Region into the Sierra Nevada or Great Basin with some indication at a lower amplitude disturbance moving through the northern Plains. That notion is generally supported by the deterministic models, which indicate a vorticity maximum and associated jet streak translating through the northern and central Plains, downstream from the primary trough axis. At the surface, ensemble member low pressure plots indicate the northern Plains surface low developing northeast into Manitoba with a trailing cold front pushing east through the northern and central Plains toward the upper MS Valley.

Model guidance is suggestive that strong instability will coincide with more than sufficient vertical shear for supercells, with the overall pattern indicative of a regional severe-weather event across the eastern Dakotas into MN, and potentially into the mid MO Valley.

Day 7/Thursday

The ensemble mean solutions indicate broad troughing from the Interior West into northern Plains. The deterministic solutions begin to vary more significantly in the trough configuration; however, all maintain strong mid-level flow from the central High Plains into upper MS Valley. At the surface, there is larger ensemble member spread in surface low position, though the general consensus suggests one cyclone in southern Manitoba or northwest Ontario and a secondary low over the central High Plains. Both lows would be connected by a southwest-to-northeast oriented boundary.

There is some model indication that the strongest mid-level flow and forcing for ascent will remain displaced to the west/northwest of the effective warm sector. Given that uncertainty, no area will be included.

### Day8/Friday

The ensembles suggest that a low-amplitude disturbance will traverse the north-central U.S., with upstream troughing lingering across the Interior West. In contrast, a number of the deterministic models indicate a relatively deep, closed low moving through the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. In the low levels, there is considerable spread in the position of any surface lows and associated frontal systems, limiting confidence in the location of any severe-weather threat.

..Mead.. 06/05/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, June 9

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050852 SPC AC 050852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

DISCUSSION

Day4/Monday

Ensemble mean and deterministic model solutions are in generally good agreement in the progression of a lead short-wave trough into central Canada, ahead of an upstream trough evolving along the West Coast. That pattern evolution will result in rising mid-level heights across the northern and central High Plains. At the surface, a cold front initially from the ND-MN Red River Valley into central High Plains will weaken through the day in response to falling pressures over the Rockies.

A reservoir of strong instability is forecast to the south of the decaying front across lower elevations of KS and OK into western MO. There is some model signal for early-day storms over NE to grow upscale into an MCS while moving through the Ozarks. Additional diurnally enhanced storms also appear possible across the central High Plains. The MCS scenario will be contingent on mesoscale processes not readily evident at this time, while the High Plains storms may be fairly isolated. As such, no area will be delineated.

### Day5/Tuesday

The ensemble mean solutions are in relatively good agreement in the continued amplification of the mid-level trough over the western U.S., with strengthening southwest flow aloft overspreading the northern High Plains. The deterministic models indicate a short-wave trough and associated mid-level jet streak moving from the trough base into the northern and central High Plains Tuesday night. At the surface, there is good ensemble clustering in a deepening lee cyclone over the northern High Plains, with that feature moving into the Dakotas by Wednesday morning. That cyclone will be attended by a cold or Pacific front moving out of the northern Rockies. The models suggest that ample instability will reside ahead of the surface low and frontal system, with the strengthening vertical shear contributing to the potential for an organized severe-weather episode over parts of the northern Plains Tuesday afternoon into night.

Day6/Wednesday

The ensembles indicate the primary trough axis across the northern Intermountain Region into the Sierra Nevada or Great Basin with some indication at a lower amplitude disturbance moving through the northern Plains. That notion is generally supported by the deterministic models, which indicate a vorticity maximum and associated jet streak translating through the northern and central Plains, downstream from the primary trough axis. At the surface, ensemble member low pressure plots indicate the northern Plains surface low developing northeast into Manitoba with a trailing cold front pushing east through the northern and central Plains toward the upper MS Valley.

Model guidance is suggestive that strong instability will coincide with more than sufficient vertical shear for supercells, with the overall pattern indicative of a regional severe-weather event across the eastern Dakotas into MN, and potentially into the mid MO Valley.

Day 7/Thursday

The ensemble mean solutions indicate broad troughing from the Interior West into northern Plains. The deterministic solutions begin to vary more significantly in the trough configuration; however, all maintain strong mid-level flow from the central High Plains into upper MS Valley. At the surface, there is larger ensemble member spread in surface low position, though the general consensus suggests one cyclone in southern Manitoba or northwest Ontario and a secondary low over the central High Plains. Both lows would be connected by a southwest-to-northeast oriented boundary.

There is some model indication that the strongest mid-level flow and forcing for ascent will remain displaced to the west/northwest of the effective warm sector. Given that uncertainty, no area will be included.

### Day8/Friday

The ensembles suggest that a low-amplitude disturbance will traverse the north-central U.S., with upstream troughing lingering across the Interior West. In contrast, a number of the deterministic models indicate a relatively deep, closed low moving through the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. In the low levels, there is considerable spread in the position of any surface lows and associated frontal systems, limiting confidence in the location of any severe-weather threat.

..Mead.. 06/05/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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---

 

Outlook for Wednesday, June 10

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050852 SPC AC 050852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

DISCUSSION

Day4/Monday

Ensemble mean and deterministic model solutions are in generally good agreement in the progression of a lead short-wave trough into central Canada, ahead of an upstream trough evolving along the West Coast. That pattern evolution will result in rising mid-level heights across the northern and central High Plains. At the surface, a cold front initially from the ND-MN Red River Valley into central High Plains will weaken through the day in response to falling pressures over the Rockies.

A reservoir of strong instability is forecast to the south of the decaying front across lower elevations of KS and OK into western MO. There is some model signal for early-day storms over NE to grow upscale into an MCS while moving through the Ozarks. Additional diurnally enhanced storms also appear possible across the central High Plains. The MCS scenario will be contingent on mesoscale processes not readily evident at this time, while the High Plains storms may be fairly isolated. As such, no area will be delineated.

### Day5/Tuesday

The ensemble mean solutions are in relatively good agreement in the continued amplification of the mid-level trough over the western U.S., with strengthening southwest flow aloft overspreading the northern High Plains. The deterministic models indicate a short-wave trough and associated mid-level jet streak moving from the trough base into the northern and central High Plains Tuesday night. At the surface, there is good ensemble clustering in a deepening lee cyclone over the northern High Plains, with that feature moving into the Dakotas by Wednesday morning. That cyclone will be attended by a cold or Pacific front moving out of the northern Rockies. The models suggest that ample instability will reside ahead of the surface low and frontal system, with the strengthening vertical shear contributing to the potential for an organized severe-weather episode over parts of the northern Plains Tuesday afternoon into night.

Day6/Wednesday

The ensembles indicate the primary trough axis across the northern Intermountain Region into the Sierra Nevada or Great Basin with some indication at a lower amplitude disturbance moving through the northern Plains. That notion is generally supported by the deterministic models, which indicate a vorticity maximum and associated jet streak translating through the northern and central Plains, downstream from the primary trough axis. At the surface, ensemble member low pressure plots indicate the northern Plains surface low developing northeast into Manitoba with a trailing cold front pushing east through the northern and central Plains toward the upper MS Valley.

Model guidance is suggestive that strong instability will coincide with more than sufficient vertical shear for supercells, with the overall pattern indicative of a regional severe-weather event across the eastern Dakotas into MN, and potentially into the mid MO Valley.

Day 7/Thursday

The ensemble mean solutions indicate broad troughing from the Interior West into northern Plains. The deterministic solutions begin to vary more significantly in the trough configuration; however, all maintain strong mid-level flow from the central High Plains into upper MS Valley. At the surface, there is larger ensemble member spread in surface low position, though the general consensus suggests one cyclone in southern Manitoba or northwest Ontario and a secondary low over the central High Plains. Both lows would be connected by a southwest-to-northeast oriented boundary.

There is some model indication that the strongest mid-level flow and forcing for ascent will remain displaced to the west/northwest of the effective warm sector. Given that uncertainty, no area will be included.

### Day8/Friday

The ensembles suggest that a low-amplitude disturbance will traverse the north-central U.S., with upstream troughing lingering across the Interior West. In contrast, a number of the deterministic models indicate a relatively deep, closed low moving through the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. In the low levels, there is considerable spread in the position of any surface lows and associated frontal systems, limiting confidence in the location of any severe-weather threat.

..Mead.. 06/05/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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---

 

Outlook for Thursday, June 11

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050852 SPC AC 050852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

DISCUSSION

Day4/Monday

Ensemble mean and deterministic model solutions are in generally good agreement in the progression of a lead short-wave trough into central Canada, ahead of an upstream trough evolving along the West Coast. That pattern evolution will result in rising mid-level heights across the northern and central High Plains. At the surface, a cold front initially from the ND-MN Red River Valley into central High Plains will weaken through the day in response to falling pressures over the Rockies.

A reservoir of strong instability is forecast to the south of the decaying front across lower elevations of KS and OK into western MO. There is some model signal for early-day storms over NE to grow upscale into an MCS while moving through the Ozarks. Additional diurnally enhanced storms also appear possible across the central High Plains. The MCS scenario will be contingent on mesoscale processes not readily evident at this time, while the High Plains storms may be fairly isolated. As such, no area will be delineated.

### Day5/Tuesday

The ensemble mean solutions are in relatively good agreement in the continued amplification of the mid-level trough over the western U.S., with strengthening southwest flow aloft overspreading the northern High Plains. The deterministic models indicate a short-wave trough and associated mid-level jet streak moving from the trough base into the northern and central High Plains Tuesday night. At the surface, there is good ensemble clustering in a deepening lee cyclone over the northern High Plains, with that feature moving into the Dakotas by Wednesday morning. That cyclone will be attended by a cold or Pacific front moving out of the northern Rockies. The models suggest that ample instability will reside ahead of the surface low and frontal system, with the strengthening vertical shear contributing to the potential for an organized severe-weather episode over parts of the northern Plains Tuesday afternoon into night.

Day6/Wednesday

The ensembles indicate the primary trough axis across the northern Intermountain Region into the Sierra Nevada or Great Basin with some indication at a lower amplitude disturbance moving through the northern Plains. That notion is generally supported by the deterministic models, which indicate a vorticity maximum and associated jet streak translating through the northern and central Plains, downstream from the primary trough axis. At the surface, ensemble member low pressure plots indicate the northern Plains surface low developing northeast into Manitoba with a trailing cold front pushing east through the northern and central Plains toward the upper MS Valley.

Model guidance is suggestive that strong instability will coincide with more than sufficient vertical shear for supercells, with the overall pattern indicative of a regional severe-weather event across the eastern Dakotas into MN, and potentially into the mid MO Valley.

Day 7/Thursday

The ensemble mean solutions indicate broad troughing from the Interior West into northern Plains. The deterministic solutions begin to vary more significantly in the trough configuration; however, all maintain strong mid-level flow from the central High Plains into upper MS Valley. At the surface, there is larger ensemble member spread in surface low position, though the general consensus suggests one cyclone in southern Manitoba or northwest Ontario and a secondary low over the central High Plains. Both lows would be connected by a southwest-to-northeast oriented boundary.

There is some model indication that the strongest mid-level flow and forcing for ascent will remain displaced to the west/northwest of the effective warm sector. Given that uncertainty, no area will be included.

### Day8/Friday

The ensembles suggest that a low-amplitude disturbance will traverse the north-central U.S., with upstream troughing lingering across the Interior West. In contrast, a number of the deterministic models indicate a relatively deep, closed low moving through the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. In the low levels, there is considerable spread in the position of any surface lows and associated frontal systems, limiting confidence in the location of any severe-weather threat.

..Mead.. 06/05/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Friday, June 12

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050852 SPC AC 050852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

DISCUSSION

Day4/Monday

Ensemble mean and deterministic model solutions are in generally good agreement in the progression of a lead short-wave trough into central Canada, ahead of an upstream trough evolving along the West Coast. That pattern evolution will result in rising mid-level heights across the northern and central High Plains. At the surface, a cold front initially from the ND-MN Red River Valley into central High Plains will weaken through the day in response to falling pressures over the Rockies.

A reservoir of strong instability is forecast to the south of the decaying front across lower elevations of KS and OK into western MO. There is some model signal for early-day storms over NE to grow upscale into an MCS while moving through the Ozarks. Additional diurnally enhanced storms also appear possible across the central High Plains. The MCS scenario will be contingent on mesoscale processes not readily evident at this time, while the High Plains storms may be fairly isolated. As such, no area will be delineated.

### Day5/Tuesday

The ensemble mean solutions are in relatively good agreement in the continued amplification of the mid-level trough over the western U.S., with strengthening southwest flow aloft overspreading the northern High Plains. The deterministic models indicate a short-wave trough and associated mid-level jet streak moving from the trough base into the northern and central High Plains Tuesday night. At the surface, there is good ensemble clustering in a deepening lee cyclone over the northern High Plains, with that feature moving into the Dakotas by Wednesday morning. That cyclone will be attended by a cold or Pacific front moving out of the northern Rockies. The models suggest that ample instability will reside ahead of the surface low and frontal system, with the strengthening vertical shear contributing to the potential for an organized severe-weather episode over parts of the northern Plains Tuesday afternoon into night.

Day6/Wednesday

The ensembles indicate the primary trough axis across the northern Intermountain Region into the Sierra Nevada or Great Basin with some indication at a lower amplitude disturbance moving through the northern Plains. That notion is generally supported by the deterministic models, which indicate a vorticity maximum and associated jet streak translating through the northern and central Plains, downstream from the primary trough axis. At the surface, ensemble member low pressure plots indicate the northern Plains surface low developing northeast into Manitoba with a trailing cold front pushing east through the northern and central Plains toward the upper MS Valley.

Model guidance is suggestive that strong instability will coincide with more than sufficient vertical shear for supercells, with the overall pattern indicative of a regional severe-weather event across the eastern Dakotas into MN, and potentially into the mid MO Valley.

Day 7/Thursday

The ensemble mean solutions indicate broad troughing from the Interior West into northern Plains. The deterministic solutions begin to vary more significantly in the trough configuration; however, all maintain strong mid-level flow from the central High Plains into upper MS Valley. At the surface, there is larger ensemble member spread in surface low position, though the general consensus suggests one cyclone in southern Manitoba or northwest Ontario and a secondary low over the central High Plains. Both lows would be connected by a southwest-to-northeast oriented boundary.

There is some model indication that the strongest mid-level flow and forcing for ascent will remain displaced to the west/northwest of the effective warm sector. Given that uncertainty, no area will be included.

### Day8/Friday

The ensembles suggest that a low-amplitude disturbance will traverse the north-central U.S., with upstream troughing lingering across the Interior West. In contrast, a number of the deterministic models indicate a relatively deep, closed low moving through the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. In the low levels, there is considerable spread in the position of any surface lows and associated frontal systems, limiting confidence in the location of any severe-weather threat.

..Mead.. 06/05/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

National Risk Overview

Friday, June 5

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Saturday, June 6

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 30%

Sunday, June 7

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Monday, June 8

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Tuesday, June 9

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Wednesday, June 10

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Thursday, June 11

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, June 12

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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