Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, May 24
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from Kansas into Minnesota and across portions of the Southeast today into tonight, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 241241
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026
Valid 241300Z - 251200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM KANSAS INTO MINNESOTA
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from Kansas into Minnesota and across portions of the Southeast today into tonight, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather.
Central Great Plains into MN
An upper trough over the Upper Midwest will move east into the Great Lakes with zonal flow extending east from the northern Rockies into the north-central states. The 12 UTC raob at Norman, OK sampled only a modestly moist airmass (10.5 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio) with surface stations farther north in the central Plains observing lower surface dewpoints than in OK. The moisture quality and weak forcing regime will probably limit overall storm coverage/intensity. However, isolated to widely scattered storms are forecast near a weak surface trough later this afternoon and evening. Vertical wind shear will support organized storms including the possibility for a few supercells, mainly from NE into MN. Large hail appears to be the primary hazard but severe gusts are also possible. Farther south into KS where deep-layer shear is forecast to be weaker, steep lapse rates will yield potential for isolated severe gusts with the stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts.
Southeast
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows upper troughing extending from the Upper Midwest southward into the northwest Gulf Coast. Downstream of this eastward-migrating upper feature, an MCV over southern AL will move northeast into GA later today and serve as the primary impetus for severe-weather potential. The WSR-88D VAD in Mobile, AL (KMOB) this morning sampled a belt of stronger 3-6 km flow (30-40 kt) associated with the disturbance. Seasonably rich low-level moisture and heating ahead of the ongoing convective band/cloud shield will result in moderate buoyancy by midday. This buoyancy and forcing for ascent will promote scattered thunderstorms developing in the form of linear clusters. The stronger water-loaded downdrafts will be capable of localized 50-65 mph gusts and isolated wind damage through the early evening before this activity subsides.
..Smith/Weinman.. 05/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Monday, May 25
Outlook Summary
Organized severe-thunderstorm potential currently appears low for Monday. Isolated strong storms may develop across parts of the Great Plains, Upper Midwest, and Southeast.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 240546
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Organized severe-thunderstorm potential currently appears low for Monday. Isolated strong storms may develop across parts of the Great Plains, Upper Midwest, and Southeast.
Synopsis
A high amplitude ridge will build in from the west across the Plains on D2/Monday with height rises and weakening mid-level flow amid warming surface temperatures. An upper level low will begin to deepen and move inland across the Pacific Northwest. Widely scattered areas of thunderstorm development can be expected from the Southwest to the Central Plains/Upper Midwest and across the Southeast. A few strong storms will be possible across the Plains to the Midwest and in the Southeast.
Central Plains into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region
While moderate buoyancy will extend across much of the Plains into the Midwest Monday afternoon, generally weak flow should temper the more organized severe threat. Modest west-northwesterly flow will overspread portions of MN/WI and Upper MI with a quick weak mid-level wave moving through the Great Lakes trough. Generally, the best forcing for ascent will be early with height rises expected by the afternoon. This leads to low confidence in thunderstorm development, though the air mass could conditionally support severe potential.
Southern NM into west TX
An isolated strong storm or two could be possible from southern New Mexico into western Texas as an embedded shortwave moves across the Southwest. Deeply mixed profiles across New Mexico may support a strong to severe gust. However, the deeper moisture remains displaced to the east across western Texas.
Parts of the Gulf Coast/Southeast
Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected overnight D1/Sunday into D2/Monday across the Gulf coast states. Depending on how this evolves and where resulting MCVs occur, a corridor of severe wind potential may be possible. For now confidence in the placement of mesoscale features remains too low.
..Thornton.. 05/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Tuesday, May 26
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe storms will be possible across western Texas into southeastern New Mexico Tuesday afternoon. Across this region, possible hazards will include large to very large hail, severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 240755
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN TEXAS
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe storms will be possible across western Texas into southeastern New Mexico Tuesday afternoon. Across this region, possible hazards will include large to very large hail, severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado.
Synopsis
An upper low will deepen across the Pacific Northwest on D3/Tuesday. The subtropical jet will increase across Baja California into Mexico, with modest westerly flow aloft extending across western Texas. Scattered severe storms will be possible across portions of western Texas and central Montana.
Western Texas into southeastern New Mexico
Modest westerly flow aloft will extend into western Texas Tuesday afternoon. Easterly upslope flow across the high terrain of the Davis Mountains and Stockton/Edwards Plateau and subtle mid-level forcing for ascent will aid in widely scattered thunderstorm activity by the afternoon. Daytime heating will allow for temperatures to climb into the mid to upper 80s in combination with mid 50s to 60s dew points yielding an axis of moderate to strong instability from just east of Big Bend and north to the southern Permian Basin. In addition, a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates will overspread the region by the afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest around 40 kts of 0-6 km shear, which will support supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe gusts. Initially, hodographs will be generally straight but increasing southeasterly flow by the evening may support potential for increasing low-level shear and perhaps a tornado.
Montana
Increasing mid-level flow and forcing for ascent will overspread portions of central Montana Tuesday afternoon, supporting scattered thunderstorms by the afternoon. Steep low to mid-level lapse rates and modest instability/shear will support potential for a few instances of large hail and severe gusts.
..Thornton.. 05/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Wednesday, May 27
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, May 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, May 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, May 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, May 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, May 31 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240900 SPC AC 240900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
The western US trough will shift southward into the Great Basin on D4/Wednesday with strengthening westerly flow overspreading the southwestern US. The axis of the central US ridge will shift eastward, with heights continuing to rise across portions of the central/northern Plains. A few stronger storms may be possible across portions of central/eastern Montana. Overall, confidence is low in any areas of organized severe potential. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible from the Southern/Central Plains to the southeastern US. Generally weak flow should keep organized severe potential low. The exception may be across far western Texas where modest mid-level flow will continue, though large scale forcing for ascent will decrease from D3/Tuesday.
For the D5/Thursday through D6/Friday period, ensemble guidance suggests the western low will shift northward again and phase with the northern jet stream. There is low confidence in chances for strong to severe storms, pending details on moisture, across the northern Rockies into the central/northern high Plains as lee troughing strengthens. Some severe potential may also extend into the eastern and southeastern US as a cold front shifts southward as flow enhances in the trough across Quebec from D6/Friday to D7/Saturday.
..Thornton.. 05/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, May 28
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, May 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, May 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, May 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, May 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, May 31 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240900 SPC AC 240900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
The western US trough will shift southward into the Great Basin on D4/Wednesday with strengthening westerly flow overspreading the southwestern US. The axis of the central US ridge will shift eastward, with heights continuing to rise across portions of the central/northern Plains. A few stronger storms may be possible across portions of central/eastern Montana. Overall, confidence is low in any areas of organized severe potential. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible from the Southern/Central Plains to the southeastern US. Generally weak flow should keep organized severe potential low. The exception may be across far western Texas where modest mid-level flow will continue, though large scale forcing for ascent will decrease from D3/Tuesday.
For the D5/Thursday through D6/Friday period, ensemble guidance suggests the western low will shift northward again and phase with the northern jet stream. There is low confidence in chances for strong to severe storms, pending details on moisture, across the northern Rockies into the central/northern high Plains as lee troughing strengthens. Some severe potential may also extend into the eastern and southeastern US as a cold front shifts southward as flow enhances in the trough across Quebec from D6/Friday to D7/Saturday.
..Thornton.. 05/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, May 29
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, May 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, May 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, May 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, May 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, May 31 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240900 SPC AC 240900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
The western US trough will shift southward into the Great Basin on D4/Wednesday with strengthening westerly flow overspreading the southwestern US. The axis of the central US ridge will shift eastward, with heights continuing to rise across portions of the central/northern Plains. A few stronger storms may be possible across portions of central/eastern Montana. Overall, confidence is low in any areas of organized severe potential. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible from the Southern/Central Plains to the southeastern US. Generally weak flow should keep organized severe potential low. The exception may be across far western Texas where modest mid-level flow will continue, though large scale forcing for ascent will decrease from D3/Tuesday.
For the D5/Thursday through D6/Friday period, ensemble guidance suggests the western low will shift northward again and phase with the northern jet stream. There is low confidence in chances for strong to severe storms, pending details on moisture, across the northern Rockies into the central/northern high Plains as lee troughing strengthens. Some severe potential may also extend into the eastern and southeastern US as a cold front shifts southward as flow enhances in the trough across Quebec from D6/Friday to D7/Saturday.
..Thornton.. 05/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, May 30
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, May 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, May 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, May 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, May 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, May 31 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240900 SPC AC 240900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
The western US trough will shift southward into the Great Basin on D4/Wednesday with strengthening westerly flow overspreading the southwestern US. The axis of the central US ridge will shift eastward, with heights continuing to rise across portions of the central/northern Plains. A few stronger storms may be possible across portions of central/eastern Montana. Overall, confidence is low in any areas of organized severe potential. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible from the Southern/Central Plains to the southeastern US. Generally weak flow should keep organized severe potential low. The exception may be across far western Texas where modest mid-level flow will continue, though large scale forcing for ascent will decrease from D3/Tuesday.
For the D5/Thursday through D6/Friday period, ensemble guidance suggests the western low will shift northward again and phase with the northern jet stream. There is low confidence in chances for strong to severe storms, pending details on moisture, across the northern Rockies into the central/northern high Plains as lee troughing strengthens. Some severe potential may also extend into the eastern and southeastern US as a cold front shifts southward as flow enhances in the trough across Quebec from D6/Friday to D7/Saturday.
..Thornton.. 05/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, May 31
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, May 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, May 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, May 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, May 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, May 31 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240900 SPC AC 240900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
The western US trough will shift southward into the Great Basin on D4/Wednesday with strengthening westerly flow overspreading the southwestern US. The axis of the central US ridge will shift eastward, with heights continuing to rise across portions of the central/northern Plains. A few stronger storms may be possible across portions of central/eastern Montana. Overall, confidence is low in any areas of organized severe potential. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible from the Southern/Central Plains to the southeastern US. Generally weak flow should keep organized severe potential low. The exception may be across far western Texas where modest mid-level flow will continue, though large scale forcing for ascent will decrease from D3/Tuesday.
For the D5/Thursday through D6/Friday period, ensemble guidance suggests the western low will shift northward again and phase with the northern jet stream. There is low confidence in chances for strong to severe storms, pending details on moisture, across the northern Rockies into the central/northern high Plains as lee troughing strengthens. Some severe potential may also extend into the eastern and southeastern US as a cold front shifts southward as flow enhances in the trough across Quebec from D6/Friday to D7/Saturday.
..Thornton.. 05/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, May 24
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Monday, May 25
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, May 26
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Wednesday, May 27
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, May 28
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, May 29
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, May 30
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, May 31
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Your Severe Outlook
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