Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, March 11
Outlook Summary
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected today from the ArkLaTex and Lower Mississippi Valley northeastward through the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 30%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 111241
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026
Valid 111300Z - 121200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
### SUMMARY
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected today from the ArkLaTex and Lower Mississippi Valley northeastward through the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic.
Synopsis
Split-flow upper pattern persists across the CONUS this morning, with an upper low moving through TX in the southern stream and a shortwave trough moving through the northern and central Plains within the northern stream. Both of these systems are forecast to progress quickly eastward amid modest phasing and trend towards a more confluent, single-stream pattern by early tomorrow morning.
Currently a broad region of moderate to strong low/mid-level flow extends from TX northeastward into eastern Ontario/southern Quebec. The strongest low-level flow with this broad region is over the Lower/Middle Ohio Valley, where 850 mb flow is around 50 to 60 kt. Thunderstorms are currently clustered over two areas within this broader region, IL and OH, and farther south from east TX into the Arklatex. The greatest severe thunderstorm potential is expected to concentrate downstream of the areas today, with damaging gusts as the primary severe hazards.
Ohio Valley through the Mid-Atlantic
Regional radar imagery shows a convective line extending from west-central IN southwestward into southern IL. This line is progressing quickly east-northeastward and has produced several strong gusts (i.e. 40-45 kt) thus far. Regional radar imagery also depicts a MCV moving into southern IL. Mesoscale ascent attendant to this MCV could be aiding in the development of the convective line as well as the more cellular storms to its south. General expectation is for this convective line to continue quickly northeastward across the Ohio Valley, with the robust low-level flow support in the potential strong to severe gusts as well as a few line-embedded tornadoes. This activity will spread east toward the Middle Atlantic by late afternoon.
This ongoing line is well ahead of a shortwave trough moving through the northern/central Plains, and strong low-level moisture advection will likely result in airmass recovery in its wake ahead of the shortwave. As a result, a second round of thunderstorms is anticipated as the shortwave and its associated cold front moves through the Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening. Despite airmass recovery, the overall buoyancy will likely be tempered by widespread clouds and muted diurnal heating. Even so, the combination of modest buoyancy with robust shear will still support another round of strong to severe thunderstorms. Strong gusts are the primary risk, but line-embedded tornadoes are possible as well. Any mature discrete development ahead of the front would likely be supercellular and capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes.
East Texas through the Southeast
A few strong to severe thunderstorms are currently ongoing within a broad area of precipitation from east TX into southern AR, supported by modest buoyancy and strong vertical shear downstream of a shortwave moving through west TX. As mentioned in recently issued MCD 211, some weakening and veering of low-level flow has been noted in regional VWPs, but deep-layer shear remains favorable, and seasonably rich low-level moisture will continue to support moderate buoyancy. The severe threat may tend to remain rather isolated in the short term, though the strongest cells/clusters will be capable of producing locally damaging wind and perhaps a tornado.
A more substantial increase in the coverage of the severe threat is expected later this afternoon, in response to increased ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough. This additional development will likely begin in a more cellular mode over east TX before progressing eastward and becoming more linear with time. All hazards are possible with this more cellular activity, including tornadoes. Southwesterly flow aloft should strengthen ahead of the shortwave throughout the evening and overnight, leading to increased organization and strength of the convective line. As such, the threat for damaging gusts and line-embedded tornadoes will persist throughout the night across the Gulf Coast states.
..Mosier/Dean.. 03/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Thursday, March 12
Outlook Summary
A couple of strong thunderstorms producing gusty winds are possible across parts of the Southeast on Thursday morning into early afternoon. However, severe thunderstorm potential appears low.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 110531
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
A couple of strong thunderstorms producing gusty winds are possible across parts of the Southeast on Thursday morning into early afternoon. However, severe thunderstorm potential appears low.
Southeast
An upper trough from the Great Lakes to the central Gulf Coast will pivot east, moving offshore the Atlantic Seaboard by late Thursday/early Friday. Thursday morning, a cold front will extend south/southwest from the Mid-Atlantic coast to southern AL. Scattered thunderstorms will be ongoing ahead of the front within a moist warm sector, mainly from the central portions of the Carolinas into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle. Mid and low-level lapse rates are forecast to remain modest (6-6.5 C/km), and limited heating downstream of the front through midday/early afternoon will be stunted by cloudiness. As a result, instability is expected to remain modest (500-750 J/kg MLCAPE). Deep-layer westerly flow parallel to the front will remain fairly robust, with 30-50 kt from 850-500 mb. Coupled with weak instability, a few stronger storms producing mainly gusty winds will be possible across portions of northern FL into southeast GA, and perhaps portions of coastal SC. The front should move offshore by mid-afternoon (arcing southwestward across north FL and the eastern Gulf). Overall, severe thunderstorm potential appears limited.
..Leitman.. 03/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Friday, March 13
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 110644
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.
Synopsis
Broad upper troughing will persist over much of the U.S. on Friday. At the surface, a cold frontal intrusion into the Gulf of America will leave a dearth of boundary layer moisture east of the Rockies, and a cool/dry/stable airmass will be in place. The exception will be across south FL where a seasonally moist boundary layer will persist south of the diffuse surface boundary. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across the southern Peninsula. However, modest vertical shear, poor lapse rates, and a lack of large-scale ascent will preclude severe thunderstorm potential.
..Leitman.. 03/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Saturday, March 14
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, March 14 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, March 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, March 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, March 17 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, March 18 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110752 SPC AC 110752
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-6/Sat-Mon
An upper trough will begin to deepen as it moves over the northern Rockies and into the northern/central High Plains on Saturday/Saturday night. As this occurs, a lee cyclone will deepen as it shifts east across the central Plains toward the MO Valley by early Sunday. Modified Gulf moisture will return northward in response to increasing southerly low-level flow ahead of the surface cyclone and attendant cold front. Medium range guidance is in fairly good agreement that any deeper/higher quality moisture will remain confined to east TX and the immediate Gulf coast on Sunday. With northward extent into the Mid-South, Mid-MS and Lower OH, and TN Valleys, 50s F dewpoints appear more likely. The upper trough will intensify and shift east across the Midwest and south-central U.S. on Sunday, but stronger flow aloft will remain displaced from better quality moisture return. While some severe potential could develop from east TX into the Lower OH/TN Valleys as a strong cold front tracks east across the central U.S. on Sunday, probabilities appear less than 15 percent at this time.
This system will shift east across the eastern U.S. on Monday, though any severe potential along the East Coast appears low at this time as the primary forcing for ascent lags behind the surface front.
Days 7-8/Tue-Wed
An amplified upper ridge will build across the western U.S. during the end of Tuesday and Wednesday while upper troughing persists across the East. Surface high pressure and the prior cold frontal passage into the Gulf will leave a stable and dry airmass in place, precluding severe potential.
..Leitman.. 03/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, March 15
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, March 14 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, March 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, March 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, March 17 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, March 18 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110752 SPC AC 110752
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-6/Sat-Mon
An upper trough will begin to deepen as it moves over the northern Rockies and into the northern/central High Plains on Saturday/Saturday night. As this occurs, a lee cyclone will deepen as it shifts east across the central Plains toward the MO Valley by early Sunday. Modified Gulf moisture will return northward in response to increasing southerly low-level flow ahead of the surface cyclone and attendant cold front. Medium range guidance is in fairly good agreement that any deeper/higher quality moisture will remain confined to east TX and the immediate Gulf coast on Sunday. With northward extent into the Mid-South, Mid-MS and Lower OH, and TN Valleys, 50s F dewpoints appear more likely. The upper trough will intensify and shift east across the Midwest and south-central U.S. on Sunday, but stronger flow aloft will remain displaced from better quality moisture return. While some severe potential could develop from east TX into the Lower OH/TN Valleys as a strong cold front tracks east across the central U.S. on Sunday, probabilities appear less than 15 percent at this time.
This system will shift east across the eastern U.S. on Monday, though any severe potential along the East Coast appears low at this time as the primary forcing for ascent lags behind the surface front.
Days 7-8/Tue-Wed
An amplified upper ridge will build across the western U.S. during the end of Tuesday and Wednesday while upper troughing persists across the East. Surface high pressure and the prior cold frontal passage into the Gulf will leave a stable and dry airmass in place, precluding severe potential.
..Leitman.. 03/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, March 16
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, March 14 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, March 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, March 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, March 17 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, March 18 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110752 SPC AC 110752
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-6/Sat-Mon
An upper trough will begin to deepen as it moves over the northern Rockies and into the northern/central High Plains on Saturday/Saturday night. As this occurs, a lee cyclone will deepen as it shifts east across the central Plains toward the MO Valley by early Sunday. Modified Gulf moisture will return northward in response to increasing southerly low-level flow ahead of the surface cyclone and attendant cold front. Medium range guidance is in fairly good agreement that any deeper/higher quality moisture will remain confined to east TX and the immediate Gulf coast on Sunday. With northward extent into the Mid-South, Mid-MS and Lower OH, and TN Valleys, 50s F dewpoints appear more likely. The upper trough will intensify and shift east across the Midwest and south-central U.S. on Sunday, but stronger flow aloft will remain displaced from better quality moisture return. While some severe potential could develop from east TX into the Lower OH/TN Valleys as a strong cold front tracks east across the central U.S. on Sunday, probabilities appear less than 15 percent at this time.
This system will shift east across the eastern U.S. on Monday, though any severe potential along the East Coast appears low at this time as the primary forcing for ascent lags behind the surface front.
Days 7-8/Tue-Wed
An amplified upper ridge will build across the western U.S. during the end of Tuesday and Wednesday while upper troughing persists across the East. Surface high pressure and the prior cold frontal passage into the Gulf will leave a stable and dry airmass in place, precluding severe potential.
..Leitman.. 03/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, March 17
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, March 14 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, March 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, March 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, March 17 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, March 18 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110752 SPC AC 110752
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-6/Sat-Mon
An upper trough will begin to deepen as it moves over the northern Rockies and into the northern/central High Plains on Saturday/Saturday night. As this occurs, a lee cyclone will deepen as it shifts east across the central Plains toward the MO Valley by early Sunday. Modified Gulf moisture will return northward in response to increasing southerly low-level flow ahead of the surface cyclone and attendant cold front. Medium range guidance is in fairly good agreement that any deeper/higher quality moisture will remain confined to east TX and the immediate Gulf coast on Sunday. With northward extent into the Mid-South, Mid-MS and Lower OH, and TN Valleys, 50s F dewpoints appear more likely. The upper trough will intensify and shift east across the Midwest and south-central U.S. on Sunday, but stronger flow aloft will remain displaced from better quality moisture return. While some severe potential could develop from east TX into the Lower OH/TN Valleys as a strong cold front tracks east across the central U.S. on Sunday, probabilities appear less than 15 percent at this time.
This system will shift east across the eastern U.S. on Monday, though any severe potential along the East Coast appears low at this time as the primary forcing for ascent lags behind the surface front.
Days 7-8/Tue-Wed
An amplified upper ridge will build across the western U.S. during the end of Tuesday and Wednesday while upper troughing persists across the East. Surface high pressure and the prior cold frontal passage into the Gulf will leave a stable and dry airmass in place, precluding severe potential.
..Leitman.. 03/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, March 18
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, March 14 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, March 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, March 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, March 17 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, March 18 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110752 SPC AC 110752
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-6/Sat-Mon
An upper trough will begin to deepen as it moves over the northern Rockies and into the northern/central High Plains on Saturday/Saturday night. As this occurs, a lee cyclone will deepen as it shifts east across the central Plains toward the MO Valley by early Sunday. Modified Gulf moisture will return northward in response to increasing southerly low-level flow ahead of the surface cyclone and attendant cold front. Medium range guidance is in fairly good agreement that any deeper/higher quality moisture will remain confined to east TX and the immediate Gulf coast on Sunday. With northward extent into the Mid-South, Mid-MS and Lower OH, and TN Valleys, 50s F dewpoints appear more likely. The upper trough will intensify and shift east across the Midwest and south-central U.S. on Sunday, but stronger flow aloft will remain displaced from better quality moisture return. While some severe potential could develop from east TX into the Lower OH/TN Valleys as a strong cold front tracks east across the central U.S. on Sunday, probabilities appear less than 15 percent at this time.
This system will shift east across the eastern U.S. on Monday, though any severe potential along the East Coast appears low at this time as the primary forcing for ascent lags behind the surface front.
Days 7-8/Tue-Wed
An amplified upper ridge will build across the western U.S. during the end of Tuesday and Wednesday while upper troughing persists across the East. Surface high pressure and the prior cold frontal passage into the Gulf will leave a stable and dry airmass in place, precluding severe potential.
..Leitman.. 03/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, March 11
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 30%
- Thursday, March 12
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Friday, March 13
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Saturday, March 14
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, March 15
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, March 16
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, March 17
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, March 18
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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