Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, July 18
Outlook Summary
Storms capable of wind damage may continue for another hour or so across central Pennsylvania before dissipating. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and hail will be likely across portions western Montana
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 190109
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0809 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026
Valid 190100Z - 191200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT CATEGORICAL LINES
SUMMARY
Storms capable of wind damage may continue for another hour or so across central Pennsylvania before dissipating. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and hail will be likely across portions western Montana
01Z Update
Overall thunderstorm intensity continues to wane across much of the northeast with the loss of daytime heating and multiple rounds of thunderstorms acting to stabilize the airmass. However, a few damaging thunderstorm wind gusts will be possible from far eastern Ohio into southern New England for perhaps another hour or two. The most likely area for wind damage is across central Pennsylvania where the most intense thunderstorms are currently found. These storms should weaken further in the next couple of hours, bringing an end to the organized severe threat.
Across western Montana, sufficient buoyancy is in place to support ongoing convection, some of which has produced severe wind gusts this afternoon. Steep lapse rates coupled with gradually strengthening mid-level flow will support an ongoing severe threat, including a couple of outflow-driven convective clusters. Please see MCD #1656 for more details.
..Marsh.. 07/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Sunday, July 19
Outlook Summary
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may pose a risk for damaging wind gusts over the Carolinas and southeast Virginia, and over the Tennessee Valley Sunday afternoon. Strong to severe storms may also develop across parts of eastern Montana into North Dakota and Minnesota from late afternoon into the overnight period.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 181730
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA INTO NORTH CAROLINA…AND OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may pose a risk for damaging wind gusts over the Carolinas and southeast Virginia, and over the Tennessee Valley Sunday afternoon. Strong to severe storms may also develop across parts of eastern Montana into North Dakota and Minnesota from late afternoon into the overnight period.
VA/Carolinas into the TN Valley
An upper trough will lift out of the Northeast on Sunday, with a trailing cold front extending from southern VA westward toward the KY/TN border during the afternoon. Ahead of the front, low 70s F dewpoints and heating will lead to 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE despite warmer air aloft. Modest west to northwest flow aloft will persist, with 500 mb speeds around 20 kt near the VA/NC portion of the front. Farther west into TN and AL, winds will be weaker but more northerly at 10-15 kt.
Storms are likely to develop along the length of the front by early afternoon, moving in a southeasterly direction. The most favorable combination of mean wind speeds and deep-layer shear will be from VA into NC, and corridors of damaging wind gusts may occur as various clusters form along the front.
Farther west, the very moist and uncapped air mass should lead to southward-moving storm clusters developing from TN into northern GA and AL through the afternoon. At least isolated damaging gusts appear likely.
Northern Plains
An upper ridge over the area will break down as a shortwave trough moves across MT and into the northern Plains late. Deep-layer shear will increase through the period with 40-50 kt. Storms should develop near the surface trough coincident with peak heating from ND into southeast MT, and forecast soundings show elongated hodographs and steep lapse rates favorable for a few supercells producing large hail and locally severe gusts. The severe risk will continue east/southeastward into SD and MN through the evening and overnight, as storm coverage increases with a southwesterly low-level jet and height falls. Damaging winds should be the main concern, though a large hail threat may persist if cellular modes should persist.
..Jewell.. 07/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Monday, July 20
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are probable across portions of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes vicinity on Monday. Swaths of damaging winds will be the most likely hazard, with isolated large hail as well. Isolated strong to damaging gusts may occur over parts of the Carolinas.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 30%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 181934
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are probable across portions of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes vicinity on Monday. Swaths of damaging winds will be the most likely hazard, with isolated large hail as well. Isolated strong to damaging gusts may occur over parts of the Carolinas.
From Lake Superior to Iowa
A strong shortwave trough will move southeastward across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley on Monday, with 50-60 kt 500 mb winds across MN/IA/WI enhancing deep-layer shear. Early day storms may occur within the warm advection regime, with at least some threat of severe wind or hail. This activity may weaken during the day and give way to diurnal destabilization, with areas of strong instability developing. Notably, mid to high level winds will be quite strong, with highly elongated hodographs favoring both supercells and severe bows. Corridors of significant wind will be possible, with some models indicating a bimodal distribution (northern WI, and IA). However, the environment across the entire area ahead of cold front will conditionally support severe storms. Despite some uncertainties, the synoptically evident upper wave and ample instability support an upgrade to Enhanced Risk.
North Carolina
A weak surface low will develop over NC with strong daytime heating beneath modest northwest flow aloft. Mid 70s F dewpoints will contribute to MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg, with clusters of storms developing during the afternoon. Multicellular clusters appear likely, moving generally eastward with potential for locally damaging outflow winds.
..Jewell.. 07/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Tuesday, July 21
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, July 21 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, July 22 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Thursday, July 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, July 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, July 25 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180757 SPC AC 180757
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4-5/Tue-Wed – Ohio Valley to Mid-Atlantic Vicinity
An upper trough will pivot across the region on Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing enhanced southerly flow aloft as a surface cold front sweeps east/southeast through Wednesday night. Ahead of the surface front, rich boundary layer moisture will be in place, and at least moderate destabilization should occur. Convection could be ongoing Tuesday morning across parts of IL/IN/Lower MI/western OH. The extent of this activity is unclear and will depend on the evolution of any potential MCS in the Day 3 period. Nevertheless, the downstream airmass across parts of the Ohio Valley will become favorable for scattered severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening, likely in the form of one or more line segments organizing ahead of the advancing cold front. An additional area of severe storms will be possible on Tuesday across the Mid-Atlantic within a warm advection regime ahead of the approaching system over the Ohio Valley. Some areas could see more than one round of severe thunderstorms on Tuesday/Tuesday night.
By Wednesday, the severe risk should spread east from the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas as the upper trough and surface cold front continue to shift east. It is uncertain how far north the severe risk may extend and probabilities may eventually need to be included across parts of the Northeast/New England. Where storms do form, damaging winds will be possible until the cold front moves offshore Wednesday evening/night.
Days 6-8/Thu-Sat
Upper troughing will persist across the eastern U.S. through the end of the forecast period, but deep-layer flow will weaken. High pressure in the wake of the cold frontal passage will preclude severe potential across the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Thursday through Saturday.
Across the Plains and western U.S., a strong upper anticyclone will park over the southern Plains, with an amplified upper ridge building into the northern Rockies. Some thunderstorm potential could develop across parts of the Plains as low-level moisture increases beneath the ridge. However, severe potential is uncertain as any potential would be driven by mesoscale features not well defined at this time frame, and as the upper ridge suppresses any large-scale support for organized severe thunderstorms.
..Leitman.. 07/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, July 22
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, July 21 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, July 22 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Thursday, July 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, July 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, July 25 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180757 SPC AC 180757
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4-5/Tue-Wed – Ohio Valley to Mid-Atlantic Vicinity
An upper trough will pivot across the region on Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing enhanced southerly flow aloft as a surface cold front sweeps east/southeast through Wednesday night. Ahead of the surface front, rich boundary layer moisture will be in place, and at least moderate destabilization should occur. Convection could be ongoing Tuesday morning across parts of IL/IN/Lower MI/western OH. The extent of this activity is unclear and will depend on the evolution of any potential MCS in the Day 3 period. Nevertheless, the downstream airmass across parts of the Ohio Valley will become favorable for scattered severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening, likely in the form of one or more line segments organizing ahead of the advancing cold front. An additional area of severe storms will be possible on Tuesday across the Mid-Atlantic within a warm advection regime ahead of the approaching system over the Ohio Valley. Some areas could see more than one round of severe thunderstorms on Tuesday/Tuesday night.
By Wednesday, the severe risk should spread east from the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas as the upper trough and surface cold front continue to shift east. It is uncertain how far north the severe risk may extend and probabilities may eventually need to be included across parts of the Northeast/New England. Where storms do form, damaging winds will be possible until the cold front moves offshore Wednesday evening/night.
Days 6-8/Thu-Sat
Upper troughing will persist across the eastern U.S. through the end of the forecast period, but deep-layer flow will weaken. High pressure in the wake of the cold frontal passage will preclude severe potential across the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Thursday through Saturday.
Across the Plains and western U.S., a strong upper anticyclone will park over the southern Plains, with an amplified upper ridge building into the northern Rockies. Some thunderstorm potential could develop across parts of the Plains as low-level moisture increases beneath the ridge. However, severe potential is uncertain as any potential would be driven by mesoscale features not well defined at this time frame, and as the upper ridge suppresses any large-scale support for organized severe thunderstorms.
..Leitman.. 07/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, July 23
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, July 21 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, July 22 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Thursday, July 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, July 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, July 25 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180757 SPC AC 180757
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4-5/Tue-Wed – Ohio Valley to Mid-Atlantic Vicinity
An upper trough will pivot across the region on Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing enhanced southerly flow aloft as a surface cold front sweeps east/southeast through Wednesday night. Ahead of the surface front, rich boundary layer moisture will be in place, and at least moderate destabilization should occur. Convection could be ongoing Tuesday morning across parts of IL/IN/Lower MI/western OH. The extent of this activity is unclear and will depend on the evolution of any potential MCS in the Day 3 period. Nevertheless, the downstream airmass across parts of the Ohio Valley will become favorable for scattered severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening, likely in the form of one or more line segments organizing ahead of the advancing cold front. An additional area of severe storms will be possible on Tuesday across the Mid-Atlantic within a warm advection regime ahead of the approaching system over the Ohio Valley. Some areas could see more than one round of severe thunderstorms on Tuesday/Tuesday night.
By Wednesday, the severe risk should spread east from the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas as the upper trough and surface cold front continue to shift east. It is uncertain how far north the severe risk may extend and probabilities may eventually need to be included across parts of the Northeast/New England. Where storms do form, damaging winds will be possible until the cold front moves offshore Wednesday evening/night.
Days 6-8/Thu-Sat
Upper troughing will persist across the eastern U.S. through the end of the forecast period, but deep-layer flow will weaken. High pressure in the wake of the cold frontal passage will preclude severe potential across the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Thursday through Saturday.
Across the Plains and western U.S., a strong upper anticyclone will park over the southern Plains, with an amplified upper ridge building into the northern Rockies. Some thunderstorm potential could develop across parts of the Plains as low-level moisture increases beneath the ridge. However, severe potential is uncertain as any potential would be driven by mesoscale features not well defined at this time frame, and as the upper ridge suppresses any large-scale support for organized severe thunderstorms.
..Leitman.. 07/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, July 24
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, July 21 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, July 22 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Thursday, July 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, July 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, July 25 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180757 SPC AC 180757
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4-5/Tue-Wed – Ohio Valley to Mid-Atlantic Vicinity
An upper trough will pivot across the region on Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing enhanced southerly flow aloft as a surface cold front sweeps east/southeast through Wednesday night. Ahead of the surface front, rich boundary layer moisture will be in place, and at least moderate destabilization should occur. Convection could be ongoing Tuesday morning across parts of IL/IN/Lower MI/western OH. The extent of this activity is unclear and will depend on the evolution of any potential MCS in the Day 3 period. Nevertheless, the downstream airmass across parts of the Ohio Valley will become favorable for scattered severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening, likely in the form of one or more line segments organizing ahead of the advancing cold front. An additional area of severe storms will be possible on Tuesday across the Mid-Atlantic within a warm advection regime ahead of the approaching system over the Ohio Valley. Some areas could see more than one round of severe thunderstorms on Tuesday/Tuesday night.
By Wednesday, the severe risk should spread east from the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas as the upper trough and surface cold front continue to shift east. It is uncertain how far north the severe risk may extend and probabilities may eventually need to be included across parts of the Northeast/New England. Where storms do form, damaging winds will be possible until the cold front moves offshore Wednesday evening/night.
Days 6-8/Thu-Sat
Upper troughing will persist across the eastern U.S. through the end of the forecast period, but deep-layer flow will weaken. High pressure in the wake of the cold frontal passage will preclude severe potential across the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Thursday through Saturday.
Across the Plains and western U.S., a strong upper anticyclone will park over the southern Plains, with an amplified upper ridge building into the northern Rockies. Some thunderstorm potential could develop across parts of the Plains as low-level moisture increases beneath the ridge. However, severe potential is uncertain as any potential would be driven by mesoscale features not well defined at this time frame, and as the upper ridge suppresses any large-scale support for organized severe thunderstorms.
..Leitman.. 07/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, July 25
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, July 21 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, July 22 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Thursday, July 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, July 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, July 25 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180757 SPC AC 180757
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4-5/Tue-Wed – Ohio Valley to Mid-Atlantic Vicinity
An upper trough will pivot across the region on Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing enhanced southerly flow aloft as a surface cold front sweeps east/southeast through Wednesday night. Ahead of the surface front, rich boundary layer moisture will be in place, and at least moderate destabilization should occur. Convection could be ongoing Tuesday morning across parts of IL/IN/Lower MI/western OH. The extent of this activity is unclear and will depend on the evolution of any potential MCS in the Day 3 period. Nevertheless, the downstream airmass across parts of the Ohio Valley will become favorable for scattered severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening, likely in the form of one or more line segments organizing ahead of the advancing cold front. An additional area of severe storms will be possible on Tuesday across the Mid-Atlantic within a warm advection regime ahead of the approaching system over the Ohio Valley. Some areas could see more than one round of severe thunderstorms on Tuesday/Tuesday night.
By Wednesday, the severe risk should spread east from the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas as the upper trough and surface cold front continue to shift east. It is uncertain how far north the severe risk may extend and probabilities may eventually need to be included across parts of the Northeast/New England. Where storms do form, damaging winds will be possible until the cold front moves offshore Wednesday evening/night.
Days 6-8/Thu-Sat
Upper troughing will persist across the eastern U.S. through the end of the forecast period, but deep-layer flow will weaken. High pressure in the wake of the cold frontal passage will preclude severe potential across the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Thursday through Saturday.
Across the Plains and western U.S., a strong upper anticyclone will park over the southern Plains, with an amplified upper ridge building into the northern Rockies. Some thunderstorm potential could develop across parts of the Plains as low-level moisture increases beneath the ridge. However, severe potential is uncertain as any potential would be driven by mesoscale features not well defined at this time frame, and as the upper ridge suppresses any large-scale support for organized severe thunderstorms.
..Leitman.. 07/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, July 18
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Sunday, July 19
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Monday, July 20
- ANY SEVERE: 30%
- Tuesday, July 21
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Wednesday, July 22
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Thursday, July 23
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, July 24
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, July 25
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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