Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, January 13
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 130520
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.
Synopsis
Dry and stable conditions will persist across most of the CONUS today. However, some modest moisture return is forecast across far southern FL as a lobe of low surface pressure extends southward along the Atlantic Seaboard. Generally warm temperatures through the midlevels will limit instability and result in poor lapse rates. Nevertheless, increasing moisture and modest forcing along a developing sea breeze during the afternoon/evening could support a couple of lightning flashes near the immediate coast or just offshore the southeast FL Peninsula and portions of the Keys. Severe storms are not expected.
..Leitman.. 01/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Wednesday, January 14
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. on Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 130657
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. on Wednesday and Wednesday night.
DISCUSSION
A large-scale upper-level trough will dig southeastward into the east-central U.S. on Wednesday, as a cold front moves quickly across the southeastern U.S. In its wake, a large area of high pressure will settle in across the central states. This will reinforce dry and cool conditions over much of the nation. In response, thunderstorms will be unlikely over the continental U.S. Wednesday and Wednesday night.
..Broyles.. 01/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Thursday, January 15
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. on Thursday and Thursday night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 130826
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. on Thursday and Thursday night.
DISCUSSION
A large-scale upper-level trough will move eastward to the southern Atlantic Seaboard on Thursday, as northwest flow remains in place over much of the nation. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will remain over the east-central U.S. As a result, dry and cool conditions will be unfavorable for thunderstorms over the continental U.S. Thursday and Thursday night.
..Broyles.. 01/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Friday, January 16
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, January 15 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Friday, January 16 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, January 17 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, January 18 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, January 19 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120954 SPC AC 120954
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
A persistent large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to remain over the east-central U.S. during the Day 4 to 8 period. This pattern will be favorable for repeated cold air intrusions into the continental U.S late this week into early next week. As a result, cool and dry conditions are expected to remain in place over much of the nation, making thunderstorm development unlikely in most areas. No severe threat is forecast to develop over the continental U.S. through early next week.
..Broyles.. 01/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, January 17
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, January 15 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Friday, January 16 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, January 17 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, January 18 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, January 19 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120954 SPC AC 120954
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
A persistent large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to remain over the east-central U.S. during the Day 4 to 8 period. This pattern will be favorable for repeated cold air intrusions into the continental U.S late this week into early next week. As a result, cool and dry conditions are expected to remain in place over much of the nation, making thunderstorm development unlikely in most areas. No severe threat is forecast to develop over the continental U.S. through early next week.
..Broyles.. 01/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, January 18
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, January 15 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Friday, January 16 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, January 17 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, January 18 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, January 19 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120954 SPC AC 120954
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
A persistent large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to remain over the east-central U.S. during the Day 4 to 8 period. This pattern will be favorable for repeated cold air intrusions into the continental U.S late this week into early next week. As a result, cool and dry conditions are expected to remain in place over much of the nation, making thunderstorm development unlikely in most areas. No severe threat is forecast to develop over the continental U.S. through early next week.
..Broyles.. 01/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, January 19
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, January 15 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Friday, January 16 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, January 17 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, January 18 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, January 19 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120954 SPC AC 120954
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
A persistent large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to remain over the east-central U.S. during the Day 4 to 8 period. This pattern will be favorable for repeated cold air intrusions into the continental U.S late this week into early next week. As a result, cool and dry conditions are expected to remain in place over much of the nation, making thunderstorm development unlikely in most areas. No severe threat is forecast to develop over the continental U.S. through early next week.
..Broyles.. 01/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, January 13
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Wednesday, January 14
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Thursday, January 15
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Friday, January 16
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, January 17
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, January 18
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, January 19
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Your Severe Outlook
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