Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Thursday, February 26

Friday, February 27

Saturday, February 28

Sunday, March 1

Monday, March 2

Tuesday, March 3

Wednesday, March 4

Thursday, March 5

Outlook for Thursday, February 26

Outlook Summary

Isolated severe storms capable of hail will be possible from the ArkLaMiss into north-central Alabama, mostly from mid-afternoon through early/mid-evening.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 261255

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Valid 261300Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLAMISS TO NORTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA

### SUMMARY

Isolated severe storms capable of hail will be possible from the ArkLaMiss into north-central Alabama, mostly from mid-afternoon through early/mid-evening.

Deep South including ArkLaMiss to north-central Alabama

Increasingly cyclonic flow aloft is expected as trough amplification occurs with a shortwave trough spreading southeastward across the south-central Plains, toward the Ozarks/ArkLaTex this evening, and the lower Mississippi Valley late tonight. A plume of relatively steep mid-level lapse rates will similarly advect southeastward atop a modestly moist air mass to the south of a southward-spreading front regionally. While southwesterly winds in the lowest 2-3 km AGL will be modest-strength and tend to weaken over time, strong mid/high-level winds will yield 40+ kt effective shear, supporting the potential for severe storms including some supercells as storms develop and intensify through mid/late afternoon. Severe hail is expected to be the primary hazard.

..Guyer/Grams.. 02/26/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

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Outlook for Friday, February 27

Outlook Summary

General thunderstorms are likely over parts of the Southeast on Friday. Severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 260650

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

General thunderstorms are likely over parts of the Southeast on Friday. Severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast.

Discussion

A deamplifying shortwave tough is forecast to move across the Southeast through the period, embedded within a broader regime of mid-level toughing across the eastern US. This large-scale setup will maintain modest ascent across the Gulf States and South Atlantic coast. At the surface, a weak cold front will continue to sag slowly south toward the Gulf Coast and northern Florida Peninsula.

Ongoing precipitation and cloud cover at the start of the period across central Alabama and Georgia are expected to persist, gradually shifting south and east through the period. While thermodynamic conditions support thunderstorms, the overall severe threat should remain low due to weak low-level convergence and limited instability.

Southern Alabama/Georgia and the Florida Panhandle

Seasonably rich low-level moisture characterized by dewpoints in the low 60Fs will be in place ahead of the sagging surface boundary. Despite surface temperatures warming into the low 70Fs, widespread cloud cover and ongoing precipitation will likely limit overall diurnal heating.

Modified soundings suggest a marginally unstable environments with MLCAPE ranging from 500-1000 J/kg. These buoyancy profiles appear tall and skinny, which, combined with the lack of stronger forcing, will limit the potential for robust updrafts. While hodographs are notably elongated, suggesting deep-layer shear should be sufficient for some storm organization, weak low-level kinematic fields and poor low-level convergence should preclude a sustained, organized severe threat.

Florida Peninsula

South of the primary frontal zone, additional thunderstorm development appears possible during the day on Friday across the Florida peninsula. Forecast soundings across the peninsula indicate the presence of a CAPE robbing capping inversion around 700 mb, although this inversion lifts during the day in response to subtle height falls associated with the synoptic trough. The associated warmer mid-level temperatures associated with the capping inversion will limit MLCAPE to between 500-1000 J/kg. Additionally, hodograph lengths decrease with southward extent, indicative of weakening deep-layer shear. Given this type of environment and the lack of focused forcing, any thunderstorm should remain disorganized and below severe limits.

..Marsh.. 02/26/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Saturday, February 28

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms will be possible across the Florida Peninsula and across northern California and southern Oregon on Saturday. Additional thunderstorms may be possible across the Southern Plains early Sunday morning.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 260830

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Valid 281200Z - 011200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms will be possible across the Florida Peninsula and across northern California and southern Oregon on Saturday. Additional thunderstorms may be possible across the Southern Plains early Sunday morning.

Discussion

A low-amplitude ridge across the Great Basin/Southwest and broad troughing across the eastern US will result in a continuation of the persistent northwest flow regime across the central US. To the west, moist southwesterly flow across northern California and southern Oregon will slowly shift south as a Pacific low approaches the coast.

At the surface, a weak front will sag south across the Florida peninsula, while a return to southerly winds across the southern Plains will initiate low-level moisture return into Oklahoma. Coincident, an arctic front will push south through the central Plains into the southern Plains as an arctic high builds into the upper Midwest.

Florida Peninsula

A remnant frontal boundary will linger across the central Florida peninsula, where conditions will remain favorable for at least isolated thunderstorms. To the south of the front, surface temperatures should warm into the upper-60Fs to low-70Fs with surface dewpoints in the low-to-mid-60Fs. This should yield MUCAPE between 1000-1500 J/kg.

While forecast hodographs are expected to lengthen as compared to the prior day, supporting some storm organization, several limiting factors exist. Weak mid-level lapse rates and poor low-level convergence cast doubt on the overall coverage of thunderstorm development. Additionally, forecast soundings suggest subsidence across portions of the peninsula during peak heating, which would further limit convective development.

Northern California and Southern Oregon

Moist southwesterly advection will increase/persist ahead of an approaching Pacific trough. Although instability is rather limited, it does appear to be non-zero. The combination of a moistening troposphere, increased ascent with the approaching trough, and non-zero instability may support a couple of thunderstorms.

Southern Plains

Moist warm-air advection is anticipated to become established Saturday night as a southerly low-level jet develops across the Plains. Increasing moisture return will drive surface dewpoints perhaps as high as the upper-50Fs or even low-60Fs. As the arctic front slows and encounters this moistening airmass, elevated thunderstorms are expected to develop within the warm-air advection regime.

Kinematic profiles will feature very long hodographs and would support updraft organization with potential for at least marginally severe hail. However, this threat is highly conditioned on the quality and magnitude of the moisture return. At this time will defer the introduction of hail probabilities to subsequent outlooks. However, if upper-50F dewpoints are realized, enough elevated instability may develop to support the introduction of hail probabilities at a later time.

..Marsh.. 02/26/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

← back to overview

Outlook for Sunday, March 1

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, March 1	potential too low
Day 5	Monday, March 2	potential too low
Day 6	Tuesday, March 3	potential too low
Day 7	Wednesday, March 4	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, March 5	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260956 SPC AC 260956

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

DISCUSSION

Early in the forecast period a transition across the western US will take place as the low-amplitude ridge over the Great Basin/Southwest shifts eastward, giving way to an amplifying trough over the West. Several speed maxima are forecast to traverse the flow while it remains primarily northwesterly over the central US early in the period. At the surface, uncertainty remains regarding the southern extent of the arctic front pushing into the Plains on Day 3. Uncertainties in the position of this front will cause low confidence in the projected quality of the low-level moisture recovery across the southern Plains through Tuesday. As the upper-air pattern across the central US transitions from northwesterly to southwesterly, and return flow commenses, the shallow nature of the modified arctic airmass may initially limit the northward penetration of the richest theta-e air.

As the period progresses into Wednesday and Thursday, ensemble guidance remains in general agreement regarding the transition to an amplified western trough and central-to-eastern ridge. However, the timing and phasing of individual shortwaves moving into the Plains remains a source of forecast uncertainty.

The first meaningful shortwave is forecast to eject into the Plains early Wednesday, inducing surface cyclogenesis that should support a northward advancement of the warm sector. Any severe risk with this trough on Wednesday (Day 7) will be predicated on the evolution of the moisture return on prior days.

On Thursday, a second, more potent trough is forecast to approach the Plains. Current ensemble guidance shows quite a bit more variance with the timing, amplitude, and evolution of this second trough. Some guidance brings this wave out as single, potent trough, with other guidance suggesting a series of more subtle shortwave troughs ejecting into the Plains from Thursday into Saturday. These discrepancies will have an impact on the location, timing, and magnitude of any potential severe weather threat.

Despite these timing differences, the synoptic setup (increasing low-level moisture, strengthening southwest flow aloft, repeated cyclogenesis) is favorable for organized severe weather over the Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. While the severe weather threat should increase by Wednesday and Thursday (Days 7 and 8), the specific orientation of frontal boundaries and the northward extent of the moisture return will be highly dependent on the evolution of the upper-lows. Given that models tend to struggle with handling the details of pattern changes, will hold off on trying to highlight any specific corridor for severe probabilities for Wednesday and Thursday at this time.

..Marsh.. 02/26/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Monday, March 2

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, March 1	potential too low
Day 5	Monday, March 2	potential too low
Day 6	Tuesday, March 3	potential too low
Day 7	Wednesday, March 4	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, March 5	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260956 SPC AC 260956

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

DISCUSSION

Early in the forecast period a transition across the western US will take place as the low-amplitude ridge over the Great Basin/Southwest shifts eastward, giving way to an amplifying trough over the West. Several speed maxima are forecast to traverse the flow while it remains primarily northwesterly over the central US early in the period. At the surface, uncertainty remains regarding the southern extent of the arctic front pushing into the Plains on Day 3. Uncertainties in the position of this front will cause low confidence in the projected quality of the low-level moisture recovery across the southern Plains through Tuesday. As the upper-air pattern across the central US transitions from northwesterly to southwesterly, and return flow commenses, the shallow nature of the modified arctic airmass may initially limit the northward penetration of the richest theta-e air.

As the period progresses into Wednesday and Thursday, ensemble guidance remains in general agreement regarding the transition to an amplified western trough and central-to-eastern ridge. However, the timing and phasing of individual shortwaves moving into the Plains remains a source of forecast uncertainty.

The first meaningful shortwave is forecast to eject into the Plains early Wednesday, inducing surface cyclogenesis that should support a northward advancement of the warm sector. Any severe risk with this trough on Wednesday (Day 7) will be predicated on the evolution of the moisture return on prior days.

On Thursday, a second, more potent trough is forecast to approach the Plains. Current ensemble guidance shows quite a bit more variance with the timing, amplitude, and evolution of this second trough. Some guidance brings this wave out as single, potent trough, with other guidance suggesting a series of more subtle shortwave troughs ejecting into the Plains from Thursday into Saturday. These discrepancies will have an impact on the location, timing, and magnitude of any potential severe weather threat.

Despite these timing differences, the synoptic setup (increasing low-level moisture, strengthening southwest flow aloft, repeated cyclogenesis) is favorable for organized severe weather over the Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. While the severe weather threat should increase by Wednesday and Thursday (Days 7 and 8), the specific orientation of frontal boundaries and the northward extent of the moisture return will be highly dependent on the evolution of the upper-lows. Given that models tend to struggle with handling the details of pattern changes, will hold off on trying to highlight any specific corridor for severe probabilities for Wednesday and Thursday at this time.

..Marsh.. 02/26/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Tuesday, March 3

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, March 1	potential too low
Day 5	Monday, March 2	potential too low
Day 6	Tuesday, March 3	potential too low
Day 7	Wednesday, March 4	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, March 5	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260956 SPC AC 260956

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

DISCUSSION

Early in the forecast period a transition across the western US will take place as the low-amplitude ridge over the Great Basin/Southwest shifts eastward, giving way to an amplifying trough over the West. Several speed maxima are forecast to traverse the flow while it remains primarily northwesterly over the central US early in the period. At the surface, uncertainty remains regarding the southern extent of the arctic front pushing into the Plains on Day 3. Uncertainties in the position of this front will cause low confidence in the projected quality of the low-level moisture recovery across the southern Plains through Tuesday. As the upper-air pattern across the central US transitions from northwesterly to southwesterly, and return flow commenses, the shallow nature of the modified arctic airmass may initially limit the northward penetration of the richest theta-e air.

As the period progresses into Wednesday and Thursday, ensemble guidance remains in general agreement regarding the transition to an amplified western trough and central-to-eastern ridge. However, the timing and phasing of individual shortwaves moving into the Plains remains a source of forecast uncertainty.

The first meaningful shortwave is forecast to eject into the Plains early Wednesday, inducing surface cyclogenesis that should support a northward advancement of the warm sector. Any severe risk with this trough on Wednesday (Day 7) will be predicated on the evolution of the moisture return on prior days.

On Thursday, a second, more potent trough is forecast to approach the Plains. Current ensemble guidance shows quite a bit more variance with the timing, amplitude, and evolution of this second trough. Some guidance brings this wave out as single, potent trough, with other guidance suggesting a series of more subtle shortwave troughs ejecting into the Plains from Thursday into Saturday. These discrepancies will have an impact on the location, timing, and magnitude of any potential severe weather threat.

Despite these timing differences, the synoptic setup (increasing low-level moisture, strengthening southwest flow aloft, repeated cyclogenesis) is favorable for organized severe weather over the Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. While the severe weather threat should increase by Wednesday and Thursday (Days 7 and 8), the specific orientation of frontal boundaries and the northward extent of the moisture return will be highly dependent on the evolution of the upper-lows. Given that models tend to struggle with handling the details of pattern changes, will hold off on trying to highlight any specific corridor for severe probabilities for Wednesday and Thursday at this time.

..Marsh.. 02/26/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Wednesday, March 4

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, March 1	potential too low
Day 5	Monday, March 2	potential too low
Day 6	Tuesday, March 3	potential too low
Day 7	Wednesday, March 4	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, March 5	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260956 SPC AC 260956

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

DISCUSSION

Early in the forecast period a transition across the western US will take place as the low-amplitude ridge over the Great Basin/Southwest shifts eastward, giving way to an amplifying trough over the West. Several speed maxima are forecast to traverse the flow while it remains primarily northwesterly over the central US early in the period. At the surface, uncertainty remains regarding the southern extent of the arctic front pushing into the Plains on Day 3. Uncertainties in the position of this front will cause low confidence in the projected quality of the low-level moisture recovery across the southern Plains through Tuesday. As the upper-air pattern across the central US transitions from northwesterly to southwesterly, and return flow commenses, the shallow nature of the modified arctic airmass may initially limit the northward penetration of the richest theta-e air.

As the period progresses into Wednesday and Thursday, ensemble guidance remains in general agreement regarding the transition to an amplified western trough and central-to-eastern ridge. However, the timing and phasing of individual shortwaves moving into the Plains remains a source of forecast uncertainty.

The first meaningful shortwave is forecast to eject into the Plains early Wednesday, inducing surface cyclogenesis that should support a northward advancement of the warm sector. Any severe risk with this trough on Wednesday (Day 7) will be predicated on the evolution of the moisture return on prior days.

On Thursday, a second, more potent trough is forecast to approach the Plains. Current ensemble guidance shows quite a bit more variance with the timing, amplitude, and evolution of this second trough. Some guidance brings this wave out as single, potent trough, with other guidance suggesting a series of more subtle shortwave troughs ejecting into the Plains from Thursday into Saturday. These discrepancies will have an impact on the location, timing, and magnitude of any potential severe weather threat.

Despite these timing differences, the synoptic setup (increasing low-level moisture, strengthening southwest flow aloft, repeated cyclogenesis) is favorable for organized severe weather over the Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. While the severe weather threat should increase by Wednesday and Thursday (Days 7 and 8), the specific orientation of frontal boundaries and the northward extent of the moisture return will be highly dependent on the evolution of the upper-lows. Given that models tend to struggle with handling the details of pattern changes, will hold off on trying to highlight any specific corridor for severe probabilities for Wednesday and Thursday at this time.

..Marsh.. 02/26/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Thursday, March 5

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, March 1	potential too low
Day 5	Monday, March 2	potential too low
Day 6	Tuesday, March 3	potential too low
Day 7	Wednesday, March 4	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, March 5	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260956 SPC AC 260956

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

DISCUSSION

Early in the forecast period a transition across the western US will take place as the low-amplitude ridge over the Great Basin/Southwest shifts eastward, giving way to an amplifying trough over the West. Several speed maxima are forecast to traverse the flow while it remains primarily northwesterly over the central US early in the period. At the surface, uncertainty remains regarding the southern extent of the arctic front pushing into the Plains on Day 3. Uncertainties in the position of this front will cause low confidence in the projected quality of the low-level moisture recovery across the southern Plains through Tuesday. As the upper-air pattern across the central US transitions from northwesterly to southwesterly, and return flow commenses, the shallow nature of the modified arctic airmass may initially limit the northward penetration of the richest theta-e air.

As the period progresses into Wednesday and Thursday, ensemble guidance remains in general agreement regarding the transition to an amplified western trough and central-to-eastern ridge. However, the timing and phasing of individual shortwaves moving into the Plains remains a source of forecast uncertainty.

The first meaningful shortwave is forecast to eject into the Plains early Wednesday, inducing surface cyclogenesis that should support a northward advancement of the warm sector. Any severe risk with this trough on Wednesday (Day 7) will be predicated on the evolution of the moisture return on prior days.

On Thursday, a second, more potent trough is forecast to approach the Plains. Current ensemble guidance shows quite a bit more variance with the timing, amplitude, and evolution of this second trough. Some guidance brings this wave out as single, potent trough, with other guidance suggesting a series of more subtle shortwave troughs ejecting into the Plains from Thursday into Saturday. These discrepancies will have an impact on the location, timing, and magnitude of any potential severe weather threat.

Despite these timing differences, the synoptic setup (increasing low-level moisture, strengthening southwest flow aloft, repeated cyclogenesis) is favorable for organized severe weather over the Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. While the severe weather threat should increase by Wednesday and Thursday (Days 7 and 8), the specific orientation of frontal boundaries and the northward extent of the moisture return will be highly dependent on the evolution of the upper-lows. Given that models tend to struggle with handling the details of pattern changes, will hold off on trying to highlight any specific corridor for severe probabilities for Wednesday and Thursday at this time.

..Marsh.. 02/26/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

National Risk Overview

Thursday, February 26: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: low
Friday, February 27: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Saturday, February 28: ANY SEVERE: low
Sunday, March 1: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, March 2: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, March 3: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, March 4: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, March 5: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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