Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Friday, April 24

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected today from parts of the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex and lower Mississippi Valley. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes will be possible. The greatest threat for supercells with very large hail (2+ inches) should focus across parts of southeast Oklahoma to the ArkLaTex region.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 241956

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Valid 242000Z - 251200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE ARKLATEX

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected today from parts of the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex and lower Mississippi Valley. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes will be possible. The greatest threat for supercells with very large hail (2+ inches) should focus across parts of southeast Oklahoma to the ArkLaTex region.

20Z Update

Much of the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. The primary changes made to the current outlook were to trim severe probabilities across portions of the OH Valley/Great Lakes, and the Mid-MS Valley, where either the passage of a surface cold front, or robust convection, has promoted boundary layer stabilization. More minor changes involved small adjustments to current severe and thunder probabilities ahead of storms to account for observations and the latest guidance consensus.

..Squitieri.. 04/24/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026/

Oklahoma/North Texas to ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley

A persistent band of non-severe thunderstorms this morning, and its related outflow, continue to settle southward across southeast Oklahoma, south-central/southeast Arkansas into northwest Mississippi. The southeastern-most portion of the convective line may re-intensify across the ArkLaMiss today as the boundary layer warms, with some potential for a secondary round of upscale-growing storms into tonight across generally the same ArkLaMiss/Lower Mississippi Valley region. This includes damaging winds and some tornado potential, primarily QLCS-related, especially into this evening/tonight via a somewhat stronger wind field.

The western periphery of the ongoing complex and its outflow should continue to decelerate, stall, and modify through the afternoon, setting the stage for a semi-corridor of heightened severe potential via this modifying outflow in conjunction with the surface triple point to this west, with intensifying storm development anticipated toward the 4pm-6pm/21z-23z time frame across southeast Oklahoma and nearby ArkLaTex. This will be in the presence of ample buoyancy and steep mid-level lapse rates. Wind profiles will further support intense supercells capable of large to very large hail, along with a tornado risk, accentuated by backed low-level winds near the outflow boundary and east of the triple point. With time, some clustering may occur with an increased damaging wind threat as convection spreads east-southeastward.

Additionally, locally intense storms may also focus farther west across southern Oklahoma/Red River vicinity along/north of the southward-sagging front where relatively rich low-level moisture will persist in the presence of strong deep-layer shear.

Texas Dryline - North/Central TX to Hill Country/Rio Grande

A highly conditional scenario exists in vicinity of the south/southwestward-extending dryline late this afternoon/early evening, with a concerning (mostly hail) severe potential should storms develop. Short-term guidance varies on the aggressiveness of eastward-mixing/dryline through peak heating, although the 12z Fort Worth sounding sampled respectable warm-sector moisture content this morning (upper quartile climo; 14.4 g/kg mean mixing ratio). Regardless, a concerning high degree of instability (3000+ J/kg MLCAPE) will exist near/east of the dryline late this afternoon.

Short-term models remain rather sparse on explicit indications of near-dryline convective initiation. However, sufficient dry line convergence and post-dryline heating/mixing could plausibly lead to isolated but intense thunderstorm development in the presence of negligible capping/boundary-layer inhibition. And while mid-level capping will be more prevalent, especially with southward extent, upstream 12z soundings from Midland/El Paso (both around -14C 500mb) suggest that some additional mid-level cooling is probable. Notably stronger mid/high-level winds were also observed in these RAOBs with 50+ kt winds and 100+ kt winds at 500mb/250mb, respectively.

Several sub-regional zones of potential isolated deep convective development are at least plausible, including in closer proximity to the surface triple point across North Texas/Metroplex general vicinity, extending into parts of central Texas where low-level mixing may be less impactful, and lastly in the immediate vicinity of the Rio Grande, potentially influenced by possible storm development across the border. If/where storms do develop late this afternoon/early evening, very large hail could occur along with localized severe-caliber wind gusts.

Great Lakes/Ohio Valley

A weak/convectively influenced mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward across the Midwest and Upper Great Lakes today. Convection ahead of a cold front has generally weakened this morning across the mid Mississippi Valley, but multi-layer cloud cover remains prevalent. Modest-caliber low-level moisture will continue to advect north-northeastward through the day ahead of the front, supporting weak instability with filtered daytime heating. Loosely organized clusters/cells that develop/intensify this afternoon may pose an isolated threat for damaging winds as they move northeastward this afternoon and evening. The residual clouds and a weakening low-level wind field should curb the overall magnitude of the severe risk, hence maintenance of MRGL/Category 1 risk.

Western Nebraska

A couple of stronger storms may develop late this afternoon/early evening near a southeastward-moving front, further influenced by a mid-level impulse embedded within the base of the large-scale trough centered over the Canadian Prairies. In the presence of a strong deep-layer wind field, modest-caliber CAPE atop a well-mixed boundary layer could potentially yield an isolated severe gust/hail.

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

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Outlook for Saturday, April 25

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms, with a risk for large to very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes, are possible across parts of the southeastern Great Plains into the ArkLaTex, primarily Saturday afternoon and evening.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 241730

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH-CENTRAL INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN ARKANSAS

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms, with a risk for large to very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes, are possible across parts of the southeastern Great Plains into the ArkLaTex, primarily Saturday afternoon and evening.

Synopsis

A deep mid/upper-level low is forecast to remain nearly stationary over the Canadian Prairie region on Saturday. This low will continue to anchor a large-scale mid/upper trough covering much of the western and central CONUS through the period. A shortwave trough initially off of the southern CA coast will move east-northeastward toward the Southwest by Sunday morning. Downstream of this system, a low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough may emerge from the southern Rockies and begin to impinge upon a moist and unstable environment across the south-central Plains by afternoon.

At the surface, a surface low is forecast to gradually deepen across the TX Panhandle region through the day, with a dryline extending southward from this low into parts of west-central and southwest TX. An outflow-influenced surface boundary will initially extend east-southeast of the low into parts of the Southeast. This boundary is forecast to move northward as a warm front through the day across parts of OK/north TX into the ArkLaTex region.

Southern/central Plains into the ArkLaTex

Relatively steep lapse rates atop a richly moist boundary layer will result in moderate to strong destabilization along/east of the dryline and near/south of the effective warm front. Details of diurnal storm development and coverage remain unclear, but at least isolated storm development will be possible near or just to the cool side of the effective warm front by late afternoon, as the approaching low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough glances the stronger instability. Initial storms across eastern KS/OK may be somewhat elevated, but surface-based convection may eventually develop near the warm front/dryline intersection and expand in coverage into the evening.

Initial supercell development will pose a threat of large to very large hail and localized damaging gusts. Low-level flow/shear will generally remain modest, but large instability and enhanced SRH near the surface boundary could result in a localized region of greater tornado potential. With time, some upscale growth may result in an organized storm cluster moving southeastward to the ArkLaTex and potentially the lower MS Valley along the primary instability gradient. This evolution could be accompanied by increasing damaging-wind potential, though embedded supercells may continue to pose a localized hail and tornado threat well into the evening.

Development along the dryline across TX continues to be uncertain, since this area will be removed from stronger large-scale ascent. However, strong heating and removal of CINH could result in isolated supercell development, with an attendant threat of large to very large hail, and a nonzero tornado and wind risk.

Farther north, a separate area of storm development is possible from central/northern KS into southeast NE. While instability and deep-layer flow/shear will generally be weaker with northward extent, cool temperatures aloft and modest midlevel flow could support a threat for isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts with the strongest storms during the afternoon and early evening.

Parts of the Southeast into the Carolinas/Virginia

A broad area of weak to moderate instability may develop during the afternoon from parts of the Southeast into the Carolinas/Virginia, near and to the warm side of a weak surface front. Wind profiles will be relatively modest, but may support marginally organized storms. Guidance continues to vary regarding placement of the primary surface boundary and potential for any MCV development from late D1/Friday. Low severe probabilities may eventually need to expanded across parts of the Southeast, once details become better resolved.

..Dean.. 04/24/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Sunday, April 26

Outlook Summary

Widely scattered severe storms with potential to produce large hail and a couple of strong tornadoes are possible by early Sunday evening across parts of the central and southern Great Plains, before one or two organizing clusters of storms spread toward the middle/lower Missouri Valley with potentially damaging wind gusts.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 241930

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN MISSOURI

### SUMMARY

Widely scattered severe storms with potential to produce large hail and a couple of strong tornadoes are possible by early Sunday evening across parts of the central and southern Great Plains, before one or two organizing clusters of storms spread toward the middle/lower Missouri Valley with potentially damaging wind gusts.

Synopsis

A mid/upper-level shortwave and attendant jet maximum are forecast to emerge from the large-scale trough across the West, and begin to impinge upon a moist and potentially very unstable airmass across parts of the Great Plains on Sunday. A surface low is expected to consolidate and deepen across the south-central High Plains during the day, and then move toward the lower MO Valley by Monday morning. A surface front (whose initial position will be influenced by extensive Friday/Saturday convection) will move northward as a warm front across parts of the central Plains and Ozarks. A Pacific Front/dryline will extend southward from the surface low through late afternoon, with the northern portion of this boundary expected to push eastward across parts of KS/OK Sunday night.

Great Plains

A volatile environment is still expected to develop across parts of KS/OK/TX Sunday afternoon and evening, with moderate to strong buoyancy and increasing low-level and deep-layer shear. However, the signal for diurnal warm-sector development remains rather muted in most guidance, with the strongest large-scale ascent and midlevel height falls expected to be displaced north of the stronger instability.

Storm coverage through early evening may be maximized across parts of the central High Plains, in closer proximity to the ejecting shortwave trough. While low-level moisture will remain relatively modest in this area, backed low-level flow, steep midlevel lapse rates, and moderate buoyancy could support initial supercell development, with an attendant threat of all severe hazards. Storms in this area may consolidate into an MCS, resulting in an organized severe threat spreading toward the lower/mid MO Valley later Sunday night.

Farther south, development along the dryline into parts of southern KS, OK, and TX remains more uncertain. If isolated supercells can develop and be sustained within this regime, they would be accompanied by a threat for tornadoes (possibly strong), very large hail, and localized severe gusts.

A separate area of nocturnal storm development will be possible within a warm-advection regime from eastern KS into the Ozark region. Buoyancy and shear may be sufficient to support some severe threat with the strongest storms within this regime.

Lower MS Valley

Nocturnal storms from D2/Saturday may persist into Sunday morning across the lower MS Valley, with additional diurnal development possible along the remnant surface boundary. Moderate buoyancy could support a localized severe threat across the region, within a modest northwesterly flow regime.

..Dean.. 04/24/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Monday, April 27

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240901 SPC AC 240901

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Valid 271200Z - 021200Z

DISCUSSION

Latest medium-range model output suggests that a significant short wave perturbation emerging from the Southwest will pivot northeast of the middle/lower Missouri Valley, into the upper Great Lakes region, Monday through Monday night. It appears that the warm sector of an associated sub-1000 mb surface cyclone will become characterized by at least moderately large CAPE, ahead of the dryline/cold front overspreading much of the middle Mississippi Valley during the afternoon into evening. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, organized severe thunderstorm activity appears probable. It remains a bit unclear the extent to which sustained supercell development will be maintained, as opposed to convection quickly growing upscale into one or more clusters/lines, but there appears at least some potential for a few strong tornadoes, in addition to large hail and potentially widespread strong to severe wind gusts.

In the wake of this activity, into the middle to latter portion of next week, convective potential becomes more unclear as strong flow trends westerly, and broadly confluent across and east of the Rockies, between broad mid-level troughing overspreading the northern tier and broad mid-level ridging across the southern tier. Another, initially notable, short wave perturbation emerging from the southern mid-latitude/subtropical eastern Pacific is still forecast to progress into the Southwest. But latest model output suggests that it may become sheared while continuing across and east of the southern Rockies, with only modest to weak surface cyclogenesis currently forecast along a remnant frontal zone across the southern Great Plains through Southeast.

..Kerr.. 04/24/2026

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Outlook for Tuesday, April 28

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240901 SPC AC 240901

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Valid 271200Z - 021200Z

DISCUSSION

Latest medium-range model output suggests that a significant short wave perturbation emerging from the Southwest will pivot northeast of the middle/lower Missouri Valley, into the upper Great Lakes region, Monday through Monday night. It appears that the warm sector of an associated sub-1000 mb surface cyclone will become characterized by at least moderately large CAPE, ahead of the dryline/cold front overspreading much of the middle Mississippi Valley during the afternoon into evening. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, organized severe thunderstorm activity appears probable. It remains a bit unclear the extent to which sustained supercell development will be maintained, as opposed to convection quickly growing upscale into one or more clusters/lines, but there appears at least some potential for a few strong tornadoes, in addition to large hail and potentially widespread strong to severe wind gusts.

In the wake of this activity, into the middle to latter portion of next week, convective potential becomes more unclear as strong flow trends westerly, and broadly confluent across and east of the Rockies, between broad mid-level troughing overspreading the northern tier and broad mid-level ridging across the southern tier. Another, initially notable, short wave perturbation emerging from the southern mid-latitude/subtropical eastern Pacific is still forecast to progress into the Southwest. But latest model output suggests that it may become sheared while continuing across and east of the southern Rockies, with only modest to weak surface cyclogenesis currently forecast along a remnant frontal zone across the southern Great Plains through Southeast.

..Kerr.. 04/24/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, April 29

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240901 SPC AC 240901

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Valid 271200Z - 021200Z

DISCUSSION

Latest medium-range model output suggests that a significant short wave perturbation emerging from the Southwest will pivot northeast of the middle/lower Missouri Valley, into the upper Great Lakes region, Monday through Monday night. It appears that the warm sector of an associated sub-1000 mb surface cyclone will become characterized by at least moderately large CAPE, ahead of the dryline/cold front overspreading much of the middle Mississippi Valley during the afternoon into evening. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, organized severe thunderstorm activity appears probable. It remains a bit unclear the extent to which sustained supercell development will be maintained, as opposed to convection quickly growing upscale into one or more clusters/lines, but there appears at least some potential for a few strong tornadoes, in addition to large hail and potentially widespread strong to severe wind gusts.

In the wake of this activity, into the middle to latter portion of next week, convective potential becomes more unclear as strong flow trends westerly, and broadly confluent across and east of the Rockies, between broad mid-level troughing overspreading the northern tier and broad mid-level ridging across the southern tier. Another, initially notable, short wave perturbation emerging from the southern mid-latitude/subtropical eastern Pacific is still forecast to progress into the Southwest. But latest model output suggests that it may become sheared while continuing across and east of the southern Rockies, with only modest to weak surface cyclogenesis currently forecast along a remnant frontal zone across the southern Great Plains through Southeast.

..Kerr.. 04/24/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Thursday, April 30

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240901 SPC AC 240901

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Valid 271200Z - 021200Z

DISCUSSION

Latest medium-range model output suggests that a significant short wave perturbation emerging from the Southwest will pivot northeast of the middle/lower Missouri Valley, into the upper Great Lakes region, Monday through Monday night. It appears that the warm sector of an associated sub-1000 mb surface cyclone will become characterized by at least moderately large CAPE, ahead of the dryline/cold front overspreading much of the middle Mississippi Valley during the afternoon into evening. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, organized severe thunderstorm activity appears probable. It remains a bit unclear the extent to which sustained supercell development will be maintained, as opposed to convection quickly growing upscale into one or more clusters/lines, but there appears at least some potential for a few strong tornadoes, in addition to large hail and potentially widespread strong to severe wind gusts.

In the wake of this activity, into the middle to latter portion of next week, convective potential becomes more unclear as strong flow trends westerly, and broadly confluent across and east of the Rockies, between broad mid-level troughing overspreading the northern tier and broad mid-level ridging across the southern tier. Another, initially notable, short wave perturbation emerging from the southern mid-latitude/subtropical eastern Pacific is still forecast to progress into the Southwest. But latest model output suggests that it may become sheared while continuing across and east of the southern Rockies, with only modest to weak surface cyclogenesis currently forecast along a remnant frontal zone across the southern Great Plains through Southeast.

..Kerr.. 04/24/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Friday, May 1

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240901 SPC AC 240901

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Valid 271200Z - 021200Z

DISCUSSION

Latest medium-range model output suggests that a significant short wave perturbation emerging from the Southwest will pivot northeast of the middle/lower Missouri Valley, into the upper Great Lakes region, Monday through Monday night. It appears that the warm sector of an associated sub-1000 mb surface cyclone will become characterized by at least moderately large CAPE, ahead of the dryline/cold front overspreading much of the middle Mississippi Valley during the afternoon into evening. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, organized severe thunderstorm activity appears probable. It remains a bit unclear the extent to which sustained supercell development will be maintained, as opposed to convection quickly growing upscale into one or more clusters/lines, but there appears at least some potential for a few strong tornadoes, in addition to large hail and potentially widespread strong to severe wind gusts.

In the wake of this activity, into the middle to latter portion of next week, convective potential becomes more unclear as strong flow trends westerly, and broadly confluent across and east of the Rockies, between broad mid-level troughing overspreading the northern tier and broad mid-level ridging across the southern tier. Another, initially notable, short wave perturbation emerging from the southern mid-latitude/subtropical eastern Pacific is still forecast to progress into the Southwest. But latest model output suggests that it may become sheared while continuing across and east of the southern Rockies, with only modest to weak surface cyclogenesis currently forecast along a remnant frontal zone across the southern Great Plains through Southeast.

..Kerr.. 04/24/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Friday, April 24

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 45%

WIND: 15%

Saturday, April 25

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 30%

WIND: 30%

Sunday, April 26

ANY SEVERE: 30%

Monday, April 27

ANY SEVERE: 30%

Tuesday, April 28

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Wednesday, April 29

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Thursday, April 30

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, May 1

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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