Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, August 15
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be possible from late afternoon into the evening across the central High Plains. Severe wind gusts will also be possible this afternoon into the early evening from parts of the Ohio Valley southeastward into the Carolinas.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 150559
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS…AND IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be possible from late afternoon into the evening across the central High Plains. Severe wind gusts will also be possible this afternoon into the early evening from parts of the Ohio Valley southeastward into the Carolinas.
Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys/Central Appalachians/Carolinas
At mid-levels today, a broad anticyclonic flow pattern will be in place over the eastern U.S. Within the flow, a shortwave trough will move eastward into the lower Ohio Valley. Ahead of this feature, a moist and unstable airmass will be located from the mid Mississippi Valley east-southeastward into the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians. In the morning, a convective complex is forecast to move eastward into the southern Great Lakes, and will likely be associated with a potential for severe wind gusts. To the south of this complex, a quasi-stationary front and moist axis will be located from the lower Ohio Valley southeastward into the southern Appalachians, along which moderate instability will develop by afternoon. Low-level convergence near the front will be the focus for convective development. A new complex of surface-based thunderstorms appears likely to form near the front and move east-southeastward from western Ohio into the Virginias during the afternoon. Additional storms will develop along and near the instability axis over the western Carolinas due to topographical forcing.
Model forecasts in the moist air suggest that MLCAPE will peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range in most areas. Near the instability axis, precipitable water values in the 1.8 to 2 inch range and moderate deep-layer shear will likely support a threat for severe wet downbursts. This threat should persist into the early evening with any line segments that become sustained over the higher terrain of the southern and central Appalachians.
Central Plains
West-southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place over the southwestern and central U.S. today. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located from the foothills of the Rockies eastward into the central Plains. By afternoon, moderate instability will develop over much of the region. Scattered thunderstorms will form in the higher terrain and move eastward into the lower elevations during the mid to late afternoon. Some RAP forecast soundings at 21Z from eastern Colorado northward into western Nebraska have 0-6 km shear near 35 knots with steep low to mid-level lapse rates exceeding 7 C/km. This environment will support a mixed mode with supercells and multicell line segments possible. Supercells should be capable of isolated large hail, while severe wind gusts will be possible with supercells and organized multicells. The severe threat should persist into the early to mid evening as a complex of storms moves eastward through the central High Plains.
..Broyles/Lyons.. 08/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Sunday, August 16
Outlook Summary
Severe storms are possible across parts of the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic, and in parts of the central High Plains Sunday afternoon and evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 150510
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC…AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Severe storms are possible across parts of the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic, and in parts of the central High Plains Sunday afternoon and evening.
Midwest to Mid-Atlantic
A couple of shortwave impulses/MCVs are expected to move across the region on Sunday within broad, modestly enhanced deep-layer west/northwesterly flow. One of these shortwave impulses may be located over the Upper Ohio Valley Sunday morning, resulting in ongoing cloudiness and possible convection across parts of PA/NJ and the DelMarVa vicinity. This poses some uncertainty for severe potential during the afternoon with northward extent across the Mid-Atlantic. However, further south, stronger heating is anticipated along with modest destabilization. A second shortwave impulse/MCV will overspread the area by afternoon, supporting additional thunderstorm develop over the upper Ohio Valley toward the Blue Ridge. Sufficient clustering may occur as convection organizes and spreads southeast through early evening, posing a risk for damaging gusts.
Further north and west across the Lower Ohio Valley into the Mid-MS Valley, a very moist and strongly unstable airmass will be in place ahead of southeastward-advancing cold front. Vertical shear will generally be weak, but scattered storms developing along the front will be moving into a very unstable airmass with PW values near/greater than 2 inches. This could support isolated to widely scattered storms capable of wind damage.
High Plains
Easterly low-level flow will maintain a modestly moist boundary layer on Sunday. Strong heating and steep midlevel lapse rates will aid in moderate destabilization. Effective shear magnitudes around 30-40 kt will support organized cells moving east/southeast off higher terrain by late afternoon through early evening. Large hail and isolated strong wind gusts will be possible.
..Leitman.. 08/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Monday, August 17
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, August 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, August 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, August 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, August 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, August 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140754 SPC AC 140754
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Mon
A cold front is forecast to extend from the Lower OH/TN Valleys toward the southern Mid-Atlantic Monday morning. Some severe risk could develop ahead of the boundary as it impinges on a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. However, vertical shear is expected to remain modest (20-30 kt 0-6 km shear). Thunderstorm clusters could pose a risk for locally damaging wind gusts, especially if sufficient clustering occurs given moderate to strong downstream instability. Severe probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if a more organized severe risk appears more likely.
Days 5-8/Tue-Fri
Low-amplitude westerly flow aloft will strengthen some around Day 5 or 6/Tue or Wed as a series of upper shortwave troughs move across the northern Plains to the Great Lakes and Northeast through Day 7/Thu. This could result in increase severe potential across portions of the Plains, Midwest, and perhaps the Northeast as the upper troughs pivot eastward. Given a prior cold frontal passage and surface high pressure across the Midwest through at least parts of Tuesday, it is uncertain how low-level moisture/thermodynamic recovery will evolve ahead of the upper feature. Depending on trends, severe probabilities may become necessary in later outlooks.
..Leitman.. 08/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, August 18
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, August 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, August 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, August 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, August 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, August 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140754 SPC AC 140754
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Mon
A cold front is forecast to extend from the Lower OH/TN Valleys toward the southern Mid-Atlantic Monday morning. Some severe risk could develop ahead of the boundary as it impinges on a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. However, vertical shear is expected to remain modest (20-30 kt 0-6 km shear). Thunderstorm clusters could pose a risk for locally damaging wind gusts, especially if sufficient clustering occurs given moderate to strong downstream instability. Severe probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if a more organized severe risk appears more likely.
Days 5-8/Tue-Fri
Low-amplitude westerly flow aloft will strengthen some around Day 5 or 6/Tue or Wed as a series of upper shortwave troughs move across the northern Plains to the Great Lakes and Northeast through Day 7/Thu. This could result in increase severe potential across portions of the Plains, Midwest, and perhaps the Northeast as the upper troughs pivot eastward. Given a prior cold frontal passage and surface high pressure across the Midwest through at least parts of Tuesday, it is uncertain how low-level moisture/thermodynamic recovery will evolve ahead of the upper feature. Depending on trends, severe probabilities may become necessary in later outlooks.
..Leitman.. 08/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, August 19
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, August 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, August 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, August 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, August 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, August 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140754 SPC AC 140754
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Mon
A cold front is forecast to extend from the Lower OH/TN Valleys toward the southern Mid-Atlantic Monday morning. Some severe risk could develop ahead of the boundary as it impinges on a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. However, vertical shear is expected to remain modest (20-30 kt 0-6 km shear). Thunderstorm clusters could pose a risk for locally damaging wind gusts, especially if sufficient clustering occurs given moderate to strong downstream instability. Severe probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if a more organized severe risk appears more likely.
Days 5-8/Tue-Fri
Low-amplitude westerly flow aloft will strengthen some around Day 5 or 6/Tue or Wed as a series of upper shortwave troughs move across the northern Plains to the Great Lakes and Northeast through Day 7/Thu. This could result in increase severe potential across portions of the Plains, Midwest, and perhaps the Northeast as the upper troughs pivot eastward. Given a prior cold frontal passage and surface high pressure across the Midwest through at least parts of Tuesday, it is uncertain how low-level moisture/thermodynamic recovery will evolve ahead of the upper feature. Depending on trends, severe probabilities may become necessary in later outlooks.
..Leitman.. 08/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, August 20
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, August 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, August 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, August 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, August 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, August 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140754 SPC AC 140754
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Mon
A cold front is forecast to extend from the Lower OH/TN Valleys toward the southern Mid-Atlantic Monday morning. Some severe risk could develop ahead of the boundary as it impinges on a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. However, vertical shear is expected to remain modest (20-30 kt 0-6 km shear). Thunderstorm clusters could pose a risk for locally damaging wind gusts, especially if sufficient clustering occurs given moderate to strong downstream instability. Severe probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if a more organized severe risk appears more likely.
Days 5-8/Tue-Fri
Low-amplitude westerly flow aloft will strengthen some around Day 5 or 6/Tue or Wed as a series of upper shortwave troughs move across the northern Plains to the Great Lakes and Northeast through Day 7/Thu. This could result in increase severe potential across portions of the Plains, Midwest, and perhaps the Northeast as the upper troughs pivot eastward. Given a prior cold frontal passage and surface high pressure across the Midwest through at least parts of Tuesday, it is uncertain how low-level moisture/thermodynamic recovery will evolve ahead of the upper feature. Depending on trends, severe probabilities may become necessary in later outlooks.
..Leitman.. 08/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, August 21
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, August 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, August 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, August 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, August 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, August 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140754 SPC AC 140754
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Mon
A cold front is forecast to extend from the Lower OH/TN Valleys toward the southern Mid-Atlantic Monday morning. Some severe risk could develop ahead of the boundary as it impinges on a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. However, vertical shear is expected to remain modest (20-30 kt 0-6 km shear). Thunderstorm clusters could pose a risk for locally damaging wind gusts, especially if sufficient clustering occurs given moderate to strong downstream instability. Severe probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if a more organized severe risk appears more likely.
Days 5-8/Tue-Fri
Low-amplitude westerly flow aloft will strengthen some around Day 5 or 6/Tue or Wed as a series of upper shortwave troughs move across the northern Plains to the Great Lakes and Northeast through Day 7/Thu. This could result in increase severe potential across portions of the Plains, Midwest, and perhaps the Northeast as the upper troughs pivot eastward. Given a prior cold frontal passage and surface high pressure across the Midwest through at least parts of Tuesday, it is uncertain how low-level moisture/thermodynamic recovery will evolve ahead of the upper feature. Depending on trends, severe probabilities may become necessary in later outlooks.
..Leitman.. 08/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, August 15
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Sunday, August 16
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Monday, August 17
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, August 18
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, August 19
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, August 20
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, August 21
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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