Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, February 23
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are not expected.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 230518
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not expected.
Discussion
Large-scale pattern does not appear particularly favorable for deep convection capable of generating lightning during the day1 period. While very weak buoyancy may exist near the southern New England coast, as a deep cyclone ejects northeast toward Nova Scotia, the prospect for lightning appears too low to warrant 10 percent thunder today.
Another region where very weak elevated instability is expected to support shallow convection is across northwest WA early in the period. Short-wave ridging will quickly spread across this region and thunderstorms are not anticipated.
..Darrow/Wendt.. 02/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Tuesday, February 24
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are not expected across the US on Tuesday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 230621
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not expected across the US on Tuesday.
Discussion
Fast, broad northwest flow will be in place across much of the US upper-levels on Tuesday. Embedded within this flow, a strong shortwave trough will move from the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes. At the surface, a low will skirt the central US-Canada border, ending up north of the Great Lakes. Despite impressive kinematics associated with this trough/cyclone, limited moisture and instability should preclude thunderstorm development.
A secondary low will develop southward from eastern Colorado into Northwest Texas, within a broad lee trough stretching from north of Montana southward into central Texas. This low will begin drawing Gulf moisture northward into the central US. However, the lack of focused surface convergence/large-scale ascent should preclude precipitation/thunderstorms from developing on Tuesday.
Across the West, a strong atmospheric river will take aim across portions of the Pacific Northwest into northern California as an extremely positively tilted trough moves into the Pacific Northwest. Forecast soundings across the area denote nearly saturated, moist adiabatic temperature/dewpoint profiles, which should inhibit sufficient instability for thunderstorm development.
..Marsh.. 02/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Wednesday, February 25
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms will be possible late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning across portions of the Ozarks east into the Tennessee Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 230752
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms will be possible late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning across portions of the Ozarks east into the Tennessee Valley.
Discussion
A fast moving, positively tilted shortwave trough embedded in the broad northwest flow across the US will move from the Interior Pacific Northwest to Iowa/Missouri during the forecast period. At the surface, southerly winds to the east of a broad lee trough will begin drawing warm air and Gulf moisture northward through the day on Wednesday, ultimately aiding the development of a northwest-to-southeast oriented warm front stretching from Nebraska to Alabama/Georgia.
In response to the approaching shortwave trough, southwesterly low-level winds will strengthen across Texas into the Ohio Valley overnight Wednesday into Thursday. Precipitation will likely develop in response to this increasing moist isentropic ascent. Forecast soundings from the Ozarks into the Tennessee Valley indicate sufficient moistening just above the boundary layer to support up to 500 J/kg of elevated instability and the potential for a few thunderstorms. As of now, the weak instability should limit any severe threat with these elevated storms.
..Marsh.. 02/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Thursday, February 26
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, February 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, February 27 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, February 28 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, March 1 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, March 2 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230837 SPC AC 230837
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
The upper-air pattern across the US will remain characterized as broad, fast, northwest flow for most of the forecast period. Embedded within this flow, a series of shortwave troughs will move across the US. The first, and potentially most impactful of these troughs will move across the eastern US on Thursday and Friday (Days 4 and 5).
A surface low will develop across portions of the Tennessee Valley early in the day Thursday in response to increasing large-scale ascent associated with the aforementioned shortwave trough. This low will quickly move east then northeast, pushing a cold front through much of the Southeast US. A couple days of moisture return will result in surface dewpoints in the 50Fs to perhaps low 60Fs ahead of this cold front. Despite poor lapse rates and meager buoyancy profiles, strong convergence along the front should yield a narrow band of forced ascent/convection. A strong low-level jet and curved low-level hodographs indicated in forecast soundings may support a few isolated damaging wind gusts or perhaps a brief tornado or two with this convection, even absent widespread lightning. Although confidence is increasing that a band of strongly forced convection will occur along the cold front, confidence remains too low in where damaging wind gusts/brief tornado may occur to introduce unconditional 15% severe probabilities.
In the wake of this cold front, the severe potential looks to be rather limited as surface moisture is suppressed south into the northern Gulf until next weekend at the earliest, when southerly return flow should develop across Texas and Oklahoma.
..Marsh.. 02/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, February 27
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, February 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, February 27 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, February 28 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, March 1 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, March 2 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230837 SPC AC 230837
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
The upper-air pattern across the US will remain characterized as broad, fast, northwest flow for most of the forecast period. Embedded within this flow, a series of shortwave troughs will move across the US. The first, and potentially most impactful of these troughs will move across the eastern US on Thursday and Friday (Days 4 and 5).
A surface low will develop across portions of the Tennessee Valley early in the day Thursday in response to increasing large-scale ascent associated with the aforementioned shortwave trough. This low will quickly move east then northeast, pushing a cold front through much of the Southeast US. A couple days of moisture return will result in surface dewpoints in the 50Fs to perhaps low 60Fs ahead of this cold front. Despite poor lapse rates and meager buoyancy profiles, strong convergence along the front should yield a narrow band of forced ascent/convection. A strong low-level jet and curved low-level hodographs indicated in forecast soundings may support a few isolated damaging wind gusts or perhaps a brief tornado or two with this convection, even absent widespread lightning. Although confidence is increasing that a band of strongly forced convection will occur along the cold front, confidence remains too low in where damaging wind gusts/brief tornado may occur to introduce unconditional 15% severe probabilities.
In the wake of this cold front, the severe potential looks to be rather limited as surface moisture is suppressed south into the northern Gulf until next weekend at the earliest, when southerly return flow should develop across Texas and Oklahoma.
..Marsh.. 02/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, February 28
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, February 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, February 27 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, February 28 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, March 1 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, March 2 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230837 SPC AC 230837
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
The upper-air pattern across the US will remain characterized as broad, fast, northwest flow for most of the forecast period. Embedded within this flow, a series of shortwave troughs will move across the US. The first, and potentially most impactful of these troughs will move across the eastern US on Thursday and Friday (Days 4 and 5).
A surface low will develop across portions of the Tennessee Valley early in the day Thursday in response to increasing large-scale ascent associated with the aforementioned shortwave trough. This low will quickly move east then northeast, pushing a cold front through much of the Southeast US. A couple days of moisture return will result in surface dewpoints in the 50Fs to perhaps low 60Fs ahead of this cold front. Despite poor lapse rates and meager buoyancy profiles, strong convergence along the front should yield a narrow band of forced ascent/convection. A strong low-level jet and curved low-level hodographs indicated in forecast soundings may support a few isolated damaging wind gusts or perhaps a brief tornado or two with this convection, even absent widespread lightning. Although confidence is increasing that a band of strongly forced convection will occur along the cold front, confidence remains too low in where damaging wind gusts/brief tornado may occur to introduce unconditional 15% severe probabilities.
In the wake of this cold front, the severe potential looks to be rather limited as surface moisture is suppressed south into the northern Gulf until next weekend at the earliest, when southerly return flow should develop across Texas and Oklahoma.
..Marsh.. 02/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, March 1
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, February 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, February 27 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, February 28 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, March 1 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, March 2 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230837 SPC AC 230837
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
The upper-air pattern across the US will remain characterized as broad, fast, northwest flow for most of the forecast period. Embedded within this flow, a series of shortwave troughs will move across the US. The first, and potentially most impactful of these troughs will move across the eastern US on Thursday and Friday (Days 4 and 5).
A surface low will develop across portions of the Tennessee Valley early in the day Thursday in response to increasing large-scale ascent associated with the aforementioned shortwave trough. This low will quickly move east then northeast, pushing a cold front through much of the Southeast US. A couple days of moisture return will result in surface dewpoints in the 50Fs to perhaps low 60Fs ahead of this cold front. Despite poor lapse rates and meager buoyancy profiles, strong convergence along the front should yield a narrow band of forced ascent/convection. A strong low-level jet and curved low-level hodographs indicated in forecast soundings may support a few isolated damaging wind gusts or perhaps a brief tornado or two with this convection, even absent widespread lightning. Although confidence is increasing that a band of strongly forced convection will occur along the cold front, confidence remains too low in where damaging wind gusts/brief tornado may occur to introduce unconditional 15% severe probabilities.
In the wake of this cold front, the severe potential looks to be rather limited as surface moisture is suppressed south into the northern Gulf until next weekend at the earliest, when southerly return flow should develop across Texas and Oklahoma.
..Marsh.. 02/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, March 2
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, February 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, February 27 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, February 28 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, March 1 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, March 2 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230837 SPC AC 230837
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
The upper-air pattern across the US will remain characterized as broad, fast, northwest flow for most of the forecast period. Embedded within this flow, a series of shortwave troughs will move across the US. The first, and potentially most impactful of these troughs will move across the eastern US on Thursday and Friday (Days 4 and 5).
A surface low will develop across portions of the Tennessee Valley early in the day Thursday in response to increasing large-scale ascent associated with the aforementioned shortwave trough. This low will quickly move east then northeast, pushing a cold front through much of the Southeast US. A couple days of moisture return will result in surface dewpoints in the 50Fs to perhaps low 60Fs ahead of this cold front. Despite poor lapse rates and meager buoyancy profiles, strong convergence along the front should yield a narrow band of forced ascent/convection. A strong low-level jet and curved low-level hodographs indicated in forecast soundings may support a few isolated damaging wind gusts or perhaps a brief tornado or two with this convection, even absent widespread lightning. Although confidence is increasing that a band of strongly forced convection will occur along the cold front, confidence remains too low in where damaging wind gusts/brief tornado may occur to introduce unconditional 15% severe probabilities.
In the wake of this cold front, the severe potential looks to be rather limited as surface moisture is suppressed south into the northern Gulf until next weekend at the earliest, when southerly return flow should develop across Texas and Oklahoma.
..Marsh.. 02/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, February 23
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, February 24
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Wednesday, February 25
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Thursday, February 26
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, February 27
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, February 28
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, March 1
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, March 2
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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