Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, November 9
Outlook Summary
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 091954
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Mon Nov 09 2026
Valid 092000Z - 101200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
20z Update
No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information.
..Halbert-E.. 11/09/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1009 AM CST Mon Nov 09 2026/
Synopsis and Discussion
Recent satellite imagery shows an elongated upper low centered over the TX Big Bend vicinity. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing within the broad warm-air advection regime downstream of this low from central and south TX across much of the TX Coastal Plains into southeast TX. 12Z BRO and CRP soundings sampled a seasonally moist airmass characterized by PW values over 1.8” and poor lapse rates. General expectation is for showers and elevated thunderstorms to continue throughout the day while diminishing in strength and intensity as an embedded shortwave trough continues northeastward. The warm sector, which is characterized by upper 60s dewpoints, is forecast to remain largely offshore as the associated surface low drifts very slowly eastward. These factors should all act to keep the overall severe weather threat very low.
Guidance also suggests a fast-moving shortwave trough will progress through the Pacific Northwest this afternoon/evening, with the primary frontal band arriving close to 00Z. Occasional lightning flashes may occur with this activity, as mid-level temperatures will be fairly cold, but most of the convection should be shallow. Enhanced southwesterly flow will exist across the region, but the limited instability and shallow storm depth should limit the risk for severe gusts.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Tuesday, November 10
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected Tuesday into early Wednesday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 091641
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Mon Nov 09 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected Tuesday into early Wednesday.
Synopsis
Mid-level impulses will traverse the northern CONUS and the Gulf Coast on Tuesday, reinforcing surface high pressure and an accompanying stable airmass across most of the CONUS, limiting thunderstorm development. A couple of thunderstorms may develop along the TX coastline as the Gulf Coast mid-level impulse overspreads seasonal moisture. A lightning flash or two may accompany impulses across the northwest Washington coastline and northern New England. A thunderstorm or two may also develop over the central FL Peninsula within a weak warm-air advection regime. However, the very sparse thunder coverage precludes general thunder highlights over these areas.
..Squitieri.. 11/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Wednesday, November 11
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over the Mid-Mississippi Valley late Wednesday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 092056
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CST Mon Nov 09 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
CORRECTED FOR WORDING IN SUMMARY
SUMMARY
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over the Mid-Mississippi Valley late Wednesday.
Synopsis
An upper trough will amplify across the eastern half of the CONUS as an upper ridge overspreads the U.S. west of the Rockies. Ahead of the amplifying upper trough, a surface low will rapidly deepen while traversing the OH river through the period, accompanied by a surface cold front that will sweep across the Mid-MS Valley. A marginally moist airmass will advect northward ahead of the approaching cold front, resulting in enough buoyancy (albeit scant), amid strong tropospheric flow fields and deep-layer ascent, to support isolated strong to potentially severe thunderstorms.
Mid-MS Valley
By late afternoon into early evening, upper 50s F surface dewpoints will advect ahead of the surface cold front, amid 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates and minimal MLCINH (per RRFS forecast soundings), yielding over 500 J/kg MLCAPE. Given strong forcing for ascent, scattered thunderstorms should develop amid a strong unidirectional tropospheric wind field by late afternoon into early evening over the mid MS Valley. Appreciable strengthening of this flow with height should support 50+ kts of effective bulk (speed) shear and elongated hodographs. As such, any stronger storm cores that develop and become sustained may produce a few damaging gusts, hence the introduction of Category 1/Marginal risk probabilities, which is also supported by the ML guidance consensus.
..Squitieri.. 11/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Thursday, November 12
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, November 13 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, November 14 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, November 15 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, November 16 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090737 SPC AC 090737
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CST Mon Nov 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
On Thursday/Day 4, an upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., as an associated cold front advances southeastward to near the Atlantic coasts of the Carolinas and Georgia. Thunderstorm development will be possible along the front and ahead of the trough in the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated strong wind gusts will be possible, but any potential for severe gusts should be minimal due to weak instability. From the weekend into early next week, a large area of high pressure is forecast to move across the central and eastern U.S. In response, a cold and dry airmass is expected to settle in over much of the continental U.S., which will be unfavorable for thunderstorm development in most areas.
..Broyles.. 11/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, November 13
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, November 13 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, November 14 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, November 15 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, November 16 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090737 SPC AC 090737
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CST Mon Nov 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
On Thursday/Day 4, an upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., as an associated cold front advances southeastward to near the Atlantic coasts of the Carolinas and Georgia. Thunderstorm development will be possible along the front and ahead of the trough in the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated strong wind gusts will be possible, but any potential for severe gusts should be minimal due to weak instability. From the weekend into early next week, a large area of high pressure is forecast to move across the central and eastern U.S. In response, a cold and dry airmass is expected to settle in over much of the continental U.S., which will be unfavorable for thunderstorm development in most areas.
..Broyles.. 11/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, November 14
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, November 13 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, November 14 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, November 15 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, November 16 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090737 SPC AC 090737
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CST Mon Nov 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
On Thursday/Day 4, an upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., as an associated cold front advances southeastward to near the Atlantic coasts of the Carolinas and Georgia. Thunderstorm development will be possible along the front and ahead of the trough in the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated strong wind gusts will be possible, but any potential for severe gusts should be minimal due to weak instability. From the weekend into early next week, a large area of high pressure is forecast to move across the central and eastern U.S. In response, a cold and dry airmass is expected to settle in over much of the continental U.S., which will be unfavorable for thunderstorm development in most areas.
..Broyles.. 11/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, November 15
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, November 13 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, November 14 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, November 15 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, November 16 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090737 SPC AC 090737
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CST Mon Nov 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
On Thursday/Day 4, an upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., as an associated cold front advances southeastward to near the Atlantic coasts of the Carolinas and Georgia. Thunderstorm development will be possible along the front and ahead of the trough in the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated strong wind gusts will be possible, but any potential for severe gusts should be minimal due to weak instability. From the weekend into early next week, a large area of high pressure is forecast to move across the central and eastern U.S. In response, a cold and dry airmass is expected to settle in over much of the continental U.S., which will be unfavorable for thunderstorm development in most areas.
..Broyles.. 11/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, November 16
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, November 13 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, November 14 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, November 15 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, November 16 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090737 SPC AC 090737
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CST Mon Nov 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
On Thursday/Day 4, an upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., as an associated cold front advances southeastward to near the Atlantic coasts of the Carolinas and Georgia. Thunderstorm development will be possible along the front and ahead of the trough in the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated strong wind gusts will be possible, but any potential for severe gusts should be minimal due to weak instability. From the weekend into early next week, a large area of high pressure is forecast to move across the central and eastern U.S. In response, a cold and dry airmass is expected to settle in over much of the continental U.S., which will be unfavorable for thunderstorm development in most areas.
..Broyles.. 11/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, November 9
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, November 10
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Wednesday, November 11
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Thursday, November 12
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, November 13
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, November 14
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, November 15
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, November 16
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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