Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Friday, September 11

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, (some 2+ inches), damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes are expected late this afternoon and tonight across parts of the Upper Midwest. Thunderstorm development is more uncertain farther south into the central Plains, where a risk for large hail and severe gusts may exist late this afternoon into the evening.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 111627

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Valid 111630Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, (some 2+ inches), damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes are expected late this afternoon and tonight across parts of the Upper Midwest. Thunderstorm development is more uncertain farther south into the central Plains, where a risk for large hail and severe gusts may exist late this afternoon into the evening.

Upper Midwest/central Plains

An eastward-progressive belt of quasi-zonal westerlies exists over the northern half of the CONUS, to the south of upper troughing over the Canadian Prairies/central Canada, and the east of the amplifying upper trough off the coastal Pacific Northwest. Weak frontal wave development will occur from eastern South Dakota into Minnesota as a cold front spreads eastward, with the front eventually overtaking a pre-frontal trough/dryline across the central Plains.

A narrow corridor of 60s F surface dewpoints are in place ahead of the cold front/dryline, with diurnal heating aiding moderate destabilization along with steepened mid-level lapse rates. Minimal MLCIN is expected along/ahead of the front in far northeast South Dakota/western Minnesota into/just after peaking heating. Convective development appears likely in this time frame across this region, especially across Minnesota, owing to sufficient low-level convergence along the front coupled with forcing for ascent associated with the mid-level shortwave trough.

Strongly veering and gradually strengthening winds with height through low/mid-levels, and 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear will easily support organized convection. Initial supercells should pose a threat for large hail (isolated 2+ inches possible), but convective mode will probably trend towards clustering fairly quickly given the presence of the cold front and strengthening low-level jet this evening. Any supercells that can remain at least semi-discrete into the early evening may also have a tornado threat with greater low-level shear forecast in this time frame. Scattered severe/damaging winds should occur with any clusters or bowing line segments that can develop and spread eastward through the evening. However, the wind threat will likely wane with eastward extent across Minnesota into western Wisconsin by late this evening given the narrow zone of destabilization forecast.

Farther southwest, convective initiation and overall thunderstorm coverage from southeast South Dakota/southwest Minnesota southwestward into Nebraska and northern Kansas are more uncertain and probably more limited/conditional late this afternoon and evening, as the better forcing for ascent with the shortwave trough will remain regionally focused to the north. Still, a favorable thermodynamic environment and sufficient (25-35 kt) deep-layer shear would conditionally support severe hail/wind with any thunderstorms that can develop and be sustained.

Mid-South/Tennessee Valley/Carolinas and Virginia

Multiple convectively augmented mid-level perturbations remain evident at midday in satellite/radar imagery, including over the Ozarks as well as the middle Gulf Coast in vicinity of southern Alabama. A stalled surface front extending from the ArkLaTex east-northeastward into the Tennessee Valley and Virginia will provide a focus for thunderstorms. Generally speaking, expectations are for generally disorganized/pulse-type convection to pose a threat for occasional damaging winds as diurnal heating destabilizes the boundary layer and steepens low-level lapse rates. However, a modest enhancement to mid-level flow across parts of the Mid-South (25 kt mid-levels per Little Rock AR WSR-88D VWP), as well as Virginia, could promote a couple of loosely organized clusters with a bit more of a focused damaging wind threat.

..Guyer/Weinman.. 09/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

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Outlook for Saturday, September 12

Outlook Summary

Widely scattered strong to severe storms may develop Saturday afternoon and evening over parts of the Central Plains. Isolated activity may also affect parts of the Upper Ohio Valley into western Pennsylvania.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 111726

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS…AND FROM OHIO/WEST VIRGINIA INTO PARTS OF WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA

### SUMMARY

Widely scattered strong to severe storms may develop Saturday afternoon and evening over parts of the Central Plains. Isolated activity may also affect parts of the Upper Ohio Valley into western Pennsylvania.

Central Plains

Substantial forecast uncertainty exists on Saturday given the subtle forcing mechanisms at play. In general, sporadic severe storms appear will be possible as instability becomes strong south of a cold front from eastern KS into northwest OK where temperatures will become hot with minimal CIN. Even near/north of the cold front (into southeast NE, southern IA, northern MO), elevated instability may favor large hail. Overall lapse rate profiles will be steep, favoring both hail and wind, with sufficient mid to high level winds and deep-layer shear. Low-level winds will remain weak, and may favor highly deviant storm/cluster motions through the evening.

Eastern OH/WV into western PA

A weak midlevel wave is forecast to move across the region, with around 35 kt winds at 500 mb. Dry air will exist northeast of the region, but surface pressures will drop with increasing low-level moisture out of the south and mid to upper 60s F dewpoints developing. Storms are generally forecast to develop over OH and northeast KY, spread east across WV and western PA. Given the increasing wind speeds and somewhat favorable low-level shear, some of the storms could eventually produce damaging gusts, most likely as peak instability is achieved.

..Jewell.. 09/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Sunday, September 13

Outlook Summary

Strong storms accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather appears possible across parts of the Northeast into Ohio Valley, and across parts of the north central Great Plains, Sunday into Sunday night.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 110730

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS A CORRIDOR FROM WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND ANOTHER CORRIDOR FROM NEAR AND SOUTHWEST OF THE BLACK HILLS THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Strong storms accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather appears possible across parts of the Northeast into Ohio Valley, and across parts of the north central Great Plains, Sunday into Sunday night.

Discussion

An initially notable mid-level low inland of the Pacific Northwest coast by 12Z Sunday is forecast to remain progressive through this period, though it may slowly begin to devolve into an open trough while accelerating across the northern U.S. Rockies in response to a short wave digging into northwestern portions of the Canadian Prairies. Within the downstream westerlies, models indicate that short wave ridging will build across the northern U.S. Great Plains and adjacent Canadian Prairies through the Upper Midwest/adjacent northwestern Ontario, while downstream troughing digs across Quebec through the lower Great Lakes region.

The primary surface cyclone associated with eastern troughing is forecast to migrate from northern Quebec into the Labrador Sea by late Sunday night. As it does, the trailing cold front probably will advance southeast of the lower Great Lakes region by late Sunday afternoon, before overspreading the northern Atlantic Seaboard through upper Ohio Valley by the end of the period. Westward through the Ohio and middle Mississippi Valleys into the central Great Plains, it appears that this front may stall near or just south of the stronger westerlies.

Parts of western New England into the Ohio Valley

Models vary concerning the degree of pre-frontal destabilization and the extent to which this may coincide with strengthening of westerly flow in the 700-500 mb layer, downstream of the digging short wave trough. However, particularly to the lee of the lower Great Lakes toward the northern Mid Atlantic vicinity, it appears that forcing for ascent will become increasingly conducive to at least scattered thunderstorm development by or shortly after peak daytime heating. As this occurs, developing storms will probably be accompanied by at least some risk for damaging wind gusts before weakening Sunday evening.

North central Great Plains/Middle Missouri Valley vicinity

The degree to which cool/stable boundary-layer air remains entrenched across much of Nebraska into parts of northern Kansas, to the south of the westerlies and beneath a remnant plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air, remains unclear. Between the cool boundary layer, which may be relatively shallow, and the base of the capping elevated mixed layer, it does appear that a seasonably moist air mass retreating northward through the region will contribute to moderate to large CAPE.

Although notable spread exists within/among the various model output, there appears potential for at least isolated to widely scattered strong to severe storm development in moistening southeasterly low-level flow across and to the southwest of the Black Hills vicinity by late Sunday afternoon, with the approach of the short wave trough. Subsequent development eastward into the Great Plains remains more uncertain, but, by late Sunday night, stronger storm development seems most likely to focus on the nose of a strengthening southerly low-level jet, near the northeastern periphery of the plume of elevated mixed-layer air, across/northeast of the middle Missouri Valley. This may be accompanied by at least a risk for severe hail.

..Kerr.. 09/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Monday, September 14

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110859 SPC AC 110859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range guidance indicates that a remnant cyclonic circulation and associated mid-level troughing, likely accelerating across the northern U.S. Rockies and adjacent international border vicinity by early Monday, may be accompanied by substantive surface cyclogenesis across southern Manitoba through northwestern Ontario Monday through Monday night, before continuing east-northeastward into the higher latitudes. It appears that this will occur coincident with the transition to a more progressive regime across the northern mid-latitude Pacific, including the gradual suppression of a blocking high initially to the southeast of the Aleutians. It also appears likely to coincide with the redevelopment of rather prominent mid/upper ridging becoming centered across the Tennessee Valley/southern Appalachians vicinity, and increasingly influential across much of the central and eastern U.S. into the middle to latter portions of next week, before becoming suppressed and retrograding west-southwestward.

In association with this regime, although there is some uncertainty concerning low-level moisture return and destabilization, it still appears that an evolving warm frontal zone could become a focus for organized strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of the middle Missouri Valley toward Upper Midwest late Monday afternoon into Monday night. Thereafter, the potential for organized severe thunderstorm development appears generally low, though there may still be areas of strong storm development with rather isolated or marginal severe weather potential.

..Kerr.. 09/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, September 15

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110859 SPC AC 110859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range guidance indicates that a remnant cyclonic circulation and associated mid-level troughing, likely accelerating across the northern U.S. Rockies and adjacent international border vicinity by early Monday, may be accompanied by substantive surface cyclogenesis across southern Manitoba through northwestern Ontario Monday through Monday night, before continuing east-northeastward into the higher latitudes. It appears that this will occur coincident with the transition to a more progressive regime across the northern mid-latitude Pacific, including the gradual suppression of a blocking high initially to the southeast of the Aleutians. It also appears likely to coincide with the redevelopment of rather prominent mid/upper ridging becoming centered across the Tennessee Valley/southern Appalachians vicinity, and increasingly influential across much of the central and eastern U.S. into the middle to latter portions of next week, before becoming suppressed and retrograding west-southwestward.

In association with this regime, although there is some uncertainty concerning low-level moisture return and destabilization, it still appears that an evolving warm frontal zone could become a focus for organized strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of the middle Missouri Valley toward Upper Midwest late Monday afternoon into Monday night. Thereafter, the potential for organized severe thunderstorm development appears generally low, though there may still be areas of strong storm development with rather isolated or marginal severe weather potential.

..Kerr.. 09/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, September 16

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110859 SPC AC 110859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range guidance indicates that a remnant cyclonic circulation and associated mid-level troughing, likely accelerating across the northern U.S. Rockies and adjacent international border vicinity by early Monday, may be accompanied by substantive surface cyclogenesis across southern Manitoba through northwestern Ontario Monday through Monday night, before continuing east-northeastward into the higher latitudes. It appears that this will occur coincident with the transition to a more progressive regime across the northern mid-latitude Pacific, including the gradual suppression of a blocking high initially to the southeast of the Aleutians. It also appears likely to coincide with the redevelopment of rather prominent mid/upper ridging becoming centered across the Tennessee Valley/southern Appalachians vicinity, and increasingly influential across much of the central and eastern U.S. into the middle to latter portions of next week, before becoming suppressed and retrograding west-southwestward.

In association with this regime, although there is some uncertainty concerning low-level moisture return and destabilization, it still appears that an evolving warm frontal zone could become a focus for organized strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of the middle Missouri Valley toward Upper Midwest late Monday afternoon into Monday night. Thereafter, the potential for organized severe thunderstorm development appears generally low, though there may still be areas of strong storm development with rather isolated or marginal severe weather potential.

..Kerr.. 09/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Thursday, September 17

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110859 SPC AC 110859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range guidance indicates that a remnant cyclonic circulation and associated mid-level troughing, likely accelerating across the northern U.S. Rockies and adjacent international border vicinity by early Monday, may be accompanied by substantive surface cyclogenesis across southern Manitoba through northwestern Ontario Monday through Monday night, before continuing east-northeastward into the higher latitudes. It appears that this will occur coincident with the transition to a more progressive regime across the northern mid-latitude Pacific, including the gradual suppression of a blocking high initially to the southeast of the Aleutians. It also appears likely to coincide with the redevelopment of rather prominent mid/upper ridging becoming centered across the Tennessee Valley/southern Appalachians vicinity, and increasingly influential across much of the central and eastern U.S. into the middle to latter portions of next week, before becoming suppressed and retrograding west-southwestward.

In association with this regime, although there is some uncertainty concerning low-level moisture return and destabilization, it still appears that an evolving warm frontal zone could become a focus for organized strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of the middle Missouri Valley toward Upper Midwest late Monday afternoon into Monday night. Thereafter, the potential for organized severe thunderstorm development appears generally low, though there may still be areas of strong storm development with rather isolated or marginal severe weather potential.

..Kerr.. 09/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Friday, September 18

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110859 SPC AC 110859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range guidance indicates that a remnant cyclonic circulation and associated mid-level troughing, likely accelerating across the northern U.S. Rockies and adjacent international border vicinity by early Monday, may be accompanied by substantive surface cyclogenesis across southern Manitoba through northwestern Ontario Monday through Monday night, before continuing east-northeastward into the higher latitudes. It appears that this will occur coincident with the transition to a more progressive regime across the northern mid-latitude Pacific, including the gradual suppression of a blocking high initially to the southeast of the Aleutians. It also appears likely to coincide with the redevelopment of rather prominent mid/upper ridging becoming centered across the Tennessee Valley/southern Appalachians vicinity, and increasingly influential across much of the central and eastern U.S. into the middle to latter portions of next week, before becoming suppressed and retrograding west-southwestward.

In association with this regime, although there is some uncertainty concerning low-level moisture return and destabilization, it still appears that an evolving warm frontal zone could become a focus for organized strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of the middle Missouri Valley toward Upper Midwest late Monday afternoon into Monday night. Thereafter, the potential for organized severe thunderstorm development appears generally low, though there may still be areas of strong storm development with rather isolated or marginal severe weather potential.

..Kerr.. 09/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Friday, September 11

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Saturday, September 12

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 5%

Sunday, September 13

ANY SEVERE: 5%

Monday, September 14

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Tuesday, September 15

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Wednesday, September 16

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Thursday, September 17

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, September 18

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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