Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, October 21
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, a couple tornadoes, and damaging winds remain possible tonight across parts of Arizona and the Southwest. Isolated severe gusts and perhaps a tornado may also occur along the central/southern California Coast.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 220100
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026
Valid 220100Z - 221200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF ARIZONA INTO FAR SOUTHEAST NEVADA AND SOUTHWEST UTAH
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, a couple tornadoes, and damaging winds remain possible tonight across parts of Arizona and the Southwest. Isolated severe gusts and perhaps a tornado may also occur along the central/southern California Coast.
Southwest
Evening water-vapor imagery showed a deep upper low off the southwest CA coast, with a plume of mid-level Pacific moisture advecting into the Southwest and Four Corners. Several shortwave perturbations were evident within the broader cyclonic flow, with the most substantial of these moving northward from the coast of Baja California. As the upper low drifts eastward, strong mid-level flow will continue to overspread much of the Southwest through tonight.
At the surface, continued southerly flow has allowed surface dewpoints to remain quite moist from the lower deserts toward the Mogollon Rim. While surface temperatures are cooler, especially with northward extent where numerous storms have occurred, the very moist conditions and steepening mid-level lapse rates beneath the advancing cold core will continue to support weak to moderate buoyancy (MUCAPE 1000-1500 J/kg) through the overnight hours. Ongoing supercells will likely persist given increasingly strong southerly wind fields ahead of the upper low. Elongated and mostly straight hodographs will favor supercells with effective bulk shear values of 55-65 kt.
Additional storm development, focused mainly across south-central AZ, remains possible given the upslope flow and the approach of the shortwave trough from Mexico late tonight into early Thursday. With supercells expected to be the primary storm mode, large hail will be the primary risk. However, severe gusts and a couple tornadoes also remain possible given some low-level hodograph curvature and local terrain influences. The primary axis of convection should gradually shift eastward across AZ into southwest NM with the upper low into early Thursday morning.
..Coastal Central/Southern California
The prominent cyclone approaching the central CA Coast will continue eastward moving onshore tonight. Cool mid-level temperatures beneath the low and modestly moist surface conditions are supporting weak buoyancy. A low-topped line of convection along the primary cold front will approach the coast this evening/tonight. While updrafts may struggle to reach sufficient depth for charge separation and lightning production given weak buoyancy, enhanced flow and low-level shear may support an isolated risk for severe gusts and perhaps a tornado through the overnight hours along the CA coast.
..Lyons.. 10/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Thursday, October 22
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Southwest and Four Corners area on Thursday, with the greatest risk across parts of Arizona. All severe hazards will be possible.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 211729
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Southwest and Four Corners area on Thursday, with the greatest risk across parts of Arizona. All severe hazards will be possible.
Synopsis
An broad upper trough with an embedded upper low off the southern California coast will move eastward on Thursday. This feature will become more of an open wave with a modest negative tilt with time. Above normal low-level moisture will be in place within the Southwest. Widely scattered to scattered storms are expected, some of which may be strong to severe.
Southwest into parts of the Great Basin
Strong meridional flow associated with the approaching upper-trough will overspread parts of the Great Basin and Southwest through the day. Moisture/destabilization will be more limited with northward/eastward extent. Some convection will be possible early in the period across much of the region. Depending on where pockets of greater heating can occur, widely scattered to scattered storms are expected to develop during the afternoon both within the terrain and along a surface trough within the central Great Basin. Isolated marginally severe hail and severe winds will be the primary concerns. The potential for a tornado will increase within southern Utah into Arizona where surface flow will be more backed greater destabilization is more probable.
With the upper-trough becoming more of an open wave with time, the most favorable overlap of mid-level ascent, surface heating, and steeper mid-level lapse rates will be across parts of southeast Arizona. Storms will likely be supercellular initially. Large hail (perhaps to around 2 inches) and a couple of tornadoes will be the main concern. With time, storm interactions and an increasing linear mode will mean a transition to more a wind threat by later in the afternoon. Destabilization from the Mogollon Rim northward becomes more uncertain given the signal for early clouds/precipitation.
Coastal Southern California
As the upper-level low moves overhead during the afternoon, temperatures aloft will become quite cold (around -20C at 500 mb). Modest surface heating will lead to around 500-750 J/kg MLCAPE, potentially. Low-topped convection near the coast is possible during the morning into the early afternoon before mid-level ascent begins to decrease. Given the ambient vorticity with the upper-low and local terrain effects, a brief tornado is possible with the strongest storms along with isolated wind damage potential.
..Wendt.. 10/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Friday, October 23
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of central into southern New Mexico on Friday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 211913
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of central into southern New Mexico on Friday.
New Mexico
Steady mid-level height falls are expected across the Southwest in the wake of a departing shortwave trough. Low-level moisture will be maintained on the western edge of an expansive eastern surface ridge. Sufficient surface heating will allow 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE to develop during the afternoon (greater values with southward extent). Cooling aloft, modest mid-level lapse rates, and moderate deep-layer shear will support a mix of multicells and supercells. Large hail and isolated severe gusts will be the main concerns within parts of central New Mexico.
..Wendt.. 10/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Saturday, October 24
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, October 28 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210800 SPC AC 210800
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough gradually progressing across the Rockies this weekend will eject into the Plains, with the prevailing mid-level flow pattern becoming more zonal and progressive through next week. Surface high pressure and attendant subsidence will overspread most of the CONUS east of the Rockies, limiting thunderstorm development through at least early next week. The best chance for any severe weather (albeit sparse) would be across the southern Rockies Day 4 (Saturday), where a buoyant airmass will reside ahead of the upper trough prior to ejection.
Medium range guidance depicts the eastward progression and amplification of another upper trough toward the middle of next week, which should encourage strong surface troughing and the progression of a cold front across the central U.S. The southern extent of the front may interact with a potentially buoyant airmass over the southern Plains, most likely around Day 8 (Wednesday) or beyond. While at least isolated severe storms are possible, questions regarding the placement and timing of the front, and lack of consistency among guidance precludes severe probabilities this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 10/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, October 25
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, October 28 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210800 SPC AC 210800
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough gradually progressing across the Rockies this weekend will eject into the Plains, with the prevailing mid-level flow pattern becoming more zonal and progressive through next week. Surface high pressure and attendant subsidence will overspread most of the CONUS east of the Rockies, limiting thunderstorm development through at least early next week. The best chance for any severe weather (albeit sparse) would be across the southern Rockies Day 4 (Saturday), where a buoyant airmass will reside ahead of the upper trough prior to ejection.
Medium range guidance depicts the eastward progression and amplification of another upper trough toward the middle of next week, which should encourage strong surface troughing and the progression of a cold front across the central U.S. The southern extent of the front may interact with a potentially buoyant airmass over the southern Plains, most likely around Day 8 (Wednesday) or beyond. While at least isolated severe storms are possible, questions regarding the placement and timing of the front, and lack of consistency among guidance precludes severe probabilities this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 10/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, October 26
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, October 28 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210800 SPC AC 210800
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough gradually progressing across the Rockies this weekend will eject into the Plains, with the prevailing mid-level flow pattern becoming more zonal and progressive through next week. Surface high pressure and attendant subsidence will overspread most of the CONUS east of the Rockies, limiting thunderstorm development through at least early next week. The best chance for any severe weather (albeit sparse) would be across the southern Rockies Day 4 (Saturday), where a buoyant airmass will reside ahead of the upper trough prior to ejection.
Medium range guidance depicts the eastward progression and amplification of another upper trough toward the middle of next week, which should encourage strong surface troughing and the progression of a cold front across the central U.S. The southern extent of the front may interact with a potentially buoyant airmass over the southern Plains, most likely around Day 8 (Wednesday) or beyond. While at least isolated severe storms are possible, questions regarding the placement and timing of the front, and lack of consistency among guidance precludes severe probabilities this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 10/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, October 27
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, October 28 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210800 SPC AC 210800
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough gradually progressing across the Rockies this weekend will eject into the Plains, with the prevailing mid-level flow pattern becoming more zonal and progressive through next week. Surface high pressure and attendant subsidence will overspread most of the CONUS east of the Rockies, limiting thunderstorm development through at least early next week. The best chance for any severe weather (albeit sparse) would be across the southern Rockies Day 4 (Saturday), where a buoyant airmass will reside ahead of the upper trough prior to ejection.
Medium range guidance depicts the eastward progression and amplification of another upper trough toward the middle of next week, which should encourage strong surface troughing and the progression of a cold front across the central U.S. The southern extent of the front may interact with a potentially buoyant airmass over the southern Plains, most likely around Day 8 (Wednesday) or beyond. While at least isolated severe storms are possible, questions regarding the placement and timing of the front, and lack of consistency among guidance precludes severe probabilities this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 10/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, October 28
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, October 28 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210800 SPC AC 210800
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough gradually progressing across the Rockies this weekend will eject into the Plains, with the prevailing mid-level flow pattern becoming more zonal and progressive through next week. Surface high pressure and attendant subsidence will overspread most of the CONUS east of the Rockies, limiting thunderstorm development through at least early next week. The best chance for any severe weather (albeit sparse) would be across the southern Rockies Day 4 (Saturday), where a buoyant airmass will reside ahead of the upper trough prior to ejection.
Medium range guidance depicts the eastward progression and amplification of another upper trough toward the middle of next week, which should encourage strong surface troughing and the progression of a cold front across the central U.S. The southern extent of the front may interact with a potentially buoyant airmass over the southern Plains, most likely around Day 8 (Wednesday) or beyond. While at least isolated severe storms are possible, questions regarding the placement and timing of the front, and lack of consistency among guidance precludes severe probabilities this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 10/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, October 21
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Thursday, October 22
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Friday, October 23
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Saturday, October 24
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, October 25
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, October 26
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, October 27
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, October 28
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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