Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Monday, July 20

Tuesday, July 21

Wednesday, July 22

Thursday, July 23

Friday, July 24

Saturday, July 25

Sunday, July 26

Monday, July 27

Outlook for Monday, July 20

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes vicinity, especially late this afternoon into late evening. A few strong-intense tornadoes, swaths of damaging winds, and isolated very large hail will all be possible. Isolated damaging gusts may also occur over parts North Carolina this afternoon.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 10%

wind 30%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 201630

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Valid 201630Z - 211200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS ACROSS WISCONSIN INTO WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN

### THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes vicinity, especially late this afternoon into late evening. A few strong-intense tornadoes, swaths of damaging winds, and isolated very large hail will all be possible. Isolated damaging gusts may also occur over parts North Carolina this afternoon.

Upper Midwest through tonight

A midlevel shortwave trough is cresting the ridge and will turn southeastward today while moving over the upper MS Valley, as an associated cold front likewise moves southeastward into Upper MI, WI and IA. Earlier storms in Upper MI have weakened, while a cluster is ongoing in eastern IA. Destabilization will occur in the wake of the eastern IA storms as a reservoir of low-mid 70s boundary-layer dewpoints spreads northeastward from IA/southern MN into WI and western Upper MI. The low-level moistening will occur beneath a plume of midlevel lapse rates greater than 8 C/km and in tandem with surface heating in cloud breaks, all of which will drive MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg. As is typical with lingering morning convection, there is some uncertainty regarding the specific locations of afternoon storm development in its wake. Wind profiles will favor supercells as the initial storm mode this afternoon along and just ahead of the cold front, given very long hodographs oriented largely orthogonal to the front. Low-level shear/hodograph curvature will also be substantial, which combined with the moist boundary layer, steep lapse rates and large buoyancy will support the potential for a few strong-intense tornadoes. Very large hail will be possible with the more discrete supercells, while significant severe outflow gusts will be possible with any clustering of storms later this afternoon/evening.

Initial supercells will likely evolve into a cluster or two by early tonight while spreading southeastward across eastern IA, northern IL, northwest IN and Lower MI with a continued threat for occasional wind damage and isolated large hail.

Central NC area this afternoon/evening

Thunderstorm development is expected again this afternoon along a stalled front/differential heating zone across NC, to the west of the more persistent cloud cover in far eastern NC. NC remains near the south edge of the midlevel westerlies, with mid 70s boundary-layer dewpoints coincident with temperatures at or above 90 F contributing to MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg. A few damaging downbursts will be possible with precipitation-loaded downdrafts in an environment with steepening low-level lapse rates.

FL Big Bend today

Tropical Depression #2 is forecast to drift slowly westward across the northeast Gulf through tomorrow and become a tropical storm. Though deep-layer wind profiles are not particularly favorable in the northeast quadrant of the cyclone, where winds aloft are from the northeast, there is just enough low-level shear to support weakly rotating storms in the outer convective bands. An isolated tornado/waterspout or two may occur today in coastal areas of the FL Big Bend.

..Thompson/Chalmers.. 07/20/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, July 21

Outlook Summary

Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across a broad region from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Tuesday. All severe hazards are possible, but swaths of damaging wind gusts should be the primary severe risk Tuesday afternoon into the nighttime hours.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 5%

wind 45%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 201730

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC

### SUMMARY

Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across a broad region from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Tuesday. All severe hazards are possible, but swaths of damaging wind gusts should be the primary severe risk Tuesday afternoon into the nighttime hours.

Synopsis

High amplitude ridging will build across the western US with continued progressive troughing across the east on Tuesday. Multiple short-wave impulses will rotate through the eastern US trough, with a belt of enhanced northwesterly flow traversing the Midwest into the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front will shift south and east through the period, with a surface low across southern Ontario/Quebec. A pre-frontal surface trough will also be in place across western/central NY into the Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected through the period.

Mid-Atlantic and Northeast

Thunderstorm activity is expected to increase along the pre-frontal trough from western/central New York into the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic late Tuesday morning into the afternoon. Though there may be potential for early morning cloud cover, it does appear that sufficient heating/moistening will occur for at least moderate instability to develop across the region through the afternoon. Mid-level flow will increase through the day along with forcing for ascent. It appears widely scattered thunderstorm activity with several clusters/embedded supercells will be ongoing by the afternoon. Highest confidence in transient embedded supercell modes would be closer to the surface low and near the front across western NY into eastern PA. Here, there may be potential for both damaging wind, large hail, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. Guidance suggests the best signal for damaging wind will be across the Mid-Atlantic, where several damaging clusters could occur. As such, the Enhanced was expanded eastward into portions of the Mid-Atlantic.

Ohio Valley

Evolution of overnight convection will play a large role in development/maintenance of thunderstorm activity across the Ohio Valley Tuesday. It appears that remnant convection will be ongoing at the start of the period near/just ahead of the surface front across northern Kentucky/southern Indiana/Ohio. This will likely re-intensify and continue to expand south and east during the morning as daytime heating begins. Strong daytime heating and moist profiles should support moderate to strong instability developing though the afternoon. Storm mode appears to be generally linear, with the greatest threat being for damaging wind given more linear forcing/initially boundary parallel shear along residual southward moving outflow. As such, the primary hazard will be damaging wind.

Additional thunderstorm development is likely along and ahead of the front through the afternoon with increasing forcing for ascent with approaching shortwaves. Strong deep layer shear may become more boundary perpendicular supporting a supercell or two as the front sags south, with potential for large hail and perhaps a tornado. Confidence in this scenario is on the lower end and the primary hazard is expected to be a secondary wave of damaging wind potential. Should storms be able to cluster and establish a more organized cold pool, potential for some corridor of significant wind may be possible. Overall, no significant wind areas were included given low confidence in exact morning storm evolution and concerns over generally poor lapse rates.

..Thornton.. 07/20/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, July 22

Outlook Summary

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts across parts of southeast Virginia and North Carolina.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 200721

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA

### SUMMARY

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts across parts of southeast Virginia and North Carolina.

Mid-Atlantic to New England

Several shortwave impulses will migrate through persistent upper troughing over the East on Wednesday. At the surface, low pressure will lift northeast across Quebec. A trailing cold front will move east/southeast across portions of the region, become positioned from the Mid-Atlantic coast into central NC by Thursday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will maintain a seasonally moist airmass. Moderate destabilization is expected across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into NC where boundary-layer moisture is greater and stronger heating may occur. Weak instability will be located over New England. Around 30-40 kt southwesterly flow from 850-500 mb will provide sufficient vertical shear for some organized cells/clusters. Isolated strong to severe storms producing damaging winds are expected across portions of the Mid-Atlantic into New England, with the greatest risk across parts of VA/NC and vicinity.

..Leitman.. 07/20/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Thursday, July 23

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, July 23	predictability too low
Day 5	Friday, July 24	predictability too low
Day 6	Saturday, July 25	predictability too low
Day 7	Sunday, July 26	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, July 27	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200802 SPC AC 200802

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

DISCUSSION

Upper troughing will persist across the eastern U.S. through early next week. Meanwhile, a strong, amplified upper ridge will envelop the western half of the CONUS. This should largely limit greater severe potential beneath the upper ridge, though some daily mesoscale-driven strong thunderstorm risk could develop over parts of the Plains as moist southerly low-level flow maintains moisture across the central portions of the country. While any stronger flow aloft will mostly remain north of the international border, some model guidance trends over the last 24 hours indicate strengthening northwesterly flow aloft is possible as a shortwave impulse or two migrates atop the upper ridge and over parts of the northern Plains and Great Lakes. This could support an increasing severe risk across these areas over the weekend, though confidence is too low for any 15 percent probability areas at this time.

..Leitman.. 07/20/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Friday, July 24

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, July 23	predictability too low
Day 5	Friday, July 24	predictability too low
Day 6	Saturday, July 25	predictability too low
Day 7	Sunday, July 26	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, July 27	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200802 SPC AC 200802

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

DISCUSSION

Upper troughing will persist across the eastern U.S. through early next week. Meanwhile, a strong, amplified upper ridge will envelop the western half of the CONUS. This should largely limit greater severe potential beneath the upper ridge, though some daily mesoscale-driven strong thunderstorm risk could develop over parts of the Plains as moist southerly low-level flow maintains moisture across the central portions of the country. While any stronger flow aloft will mostly remain north of the international border, some model guidance trends over the last 24 hours indicate strengthening northwesterly flow aloft is possible as a shortwave impulse or two migrates atop the upper ridge and over parts of the northern Plains and Great Lakes. This could support an increasing severe risk across these areas over the weekend, though confidence is too low for any 15 percent probability areas at this time.

..Leitman.. 07/20/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Saturday, July 25

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, July 23	predictability too low
Day 5	Friday, July 24	predictability too low
Day 6	Saturday, July 25	predictability too low
Day 7	Sunday, July 26	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, July 27	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200802 SPC AC 200802

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

DISCUSSION

Upper troughing will persist across the eastern U.S. through early next week. Meanwhile, a strong, amplified upper ridge will envelop the western half of the CONUS. This should largely limit greater severe potential beneath the upper ridge, though some daily mesoscale-driven strong thunderstorm risk could develop over parts of the Plains as moist southerly low-level flow maintains moisture across the central portions of the country. While any stronger flow aloft will mostly remain north of the international border, some model guidance trends over the last 24 hours indicate strengthening northwesterly flow aloft is possible as a shortwave impulse or two migrates atop the upper ridge and over parts of the northern Plains and Great Lakes. This could support an increasing severe risk across these areas over the weekend, though confidence is too low for any 15 percent probability areas at this time.

..Leitman.. 07/20/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Sunday, July 26

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, July 23	predictability too low
Day 5	Friday, July 24	predictability too low
Day 6	Saturday, July 25	predictability too low
Day 7	Sunday, July 26	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, July 27	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200802 SPC AC 200802

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

DISCUSSION

Upper troughing will persist across the eastern U.S. through early next week. Meanwhile, a strong, amplified upper ridge will envelop the western half of the CONUS. This should largely limit greater severe potential beneath the upper ridge, though some daily mesoscale-driven strong thunderstorm risk could develop over parts of the Plains as moist southerly low-level flow maintains moisture across the central portions of the country. While any stronger flow aloft will mostly remain north of the international border, some model guidance trends over the last 24 hours indicate strengthening northwesterly flow aloft is possible as a shortwave impulse or two migrates atop the upper ridge and over parts of the northern Plains and Great Lakes. This could support an increasing severe risk across these areas over the weekend, though confidence is too low for any 15 percent probability areas at this time.

..Leitman.. 07/20/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Monday, July 27

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, July 23	predictability too low
Day 5	Friday, July 24	predictability too low
Day 6	Saturday, July 25	predictability too low
Day 7	Sunday, July 26	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, July 27	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200802 SPC AC 200802

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

DISCUSSION

Upper troughing will persist across the eastern U.S. through early next week. Meanwhile, a strong, amplified upper ridge will envelop the western half of the CONUS. This should largely limit greater severe potential beneath the upper ridge, though some daily mesoscale-driven strong thunderstorm risk could develop over parts of the Plains as moist southerly low-level flow maintains moisture across the central portions of the country. While any stronger flow aloft will mostly remain north of the international border, some model guidance trends over the last 24 hours indicate strengthening northwesterly flow aloft is possible as a shortwave impulse or two migrates atop the upper ridge and over parts of the northern Plains and Great Lakes. This could support an increasing severe risk across these areas over the weekend, though confidence is too low for any 15 percent probability areas at this time.

..Leitman.. 07/20/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

National Risk Overview

Monday, July 20: TORNADO: 10%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 30%
Tuesday, July 21: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 45%
Wednesday, July 22: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Thursday, July 23: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, July 24: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, July 25: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, July 26: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, July 27: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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