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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Friday, March 6

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from mid afternoon through tonight from parts of the southern/central Plains to the Ozarks and Midwest. The greatest potential for a few strong tornadoes and very large hail should exist across eastern portions of Oklahoma/Kansas/Nebraska into western Arkansas/Missouri and southern Iowa.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 061258

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Fri Mar 06 2026

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS/MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from mid afternoon through tonight from parts of the southern/central Plains to the Ozarks and Midwest. The greatest potential for a few strong tornadoes and very large hail should exist across eastern portions of Oklahoma/Kansas/Nebraska into western Arkansas/Missouri and southern Iowa.

Synopsis

Upper troughing over the western CONUS this morning will evolve into more of a split flow pattern through the period, as a lead mid-level shortwave trough ejects northeastward across the central Plains/Upper Midwest, and a closed low develops over the southern CA vicinity. A surface lee cyclone has moved into northwest KS early this morning, and is forecast to develop towards IA by this evening, while a secondary low shifts eastward along the KS/OK border. A cold front attendant to the primary surface low will surge east-southeastward across the southern/central Plains and adjacent portions of the Midwest through the period, and will likely provide a focus for organized severe convection later today. A warm front will develop northward through tonight across parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. This boundary should serve as a northern limit to the severe threat from surface-based convection. A dryline will also extend southward from the secondary surface low across western/central OK into TX by late afternoon.

Central Plains into the Midwest/Great Lakes

Strong low-level warm/moist advection ahead of the lead mid-level shortwave trough will continue to support scattered to numerous thunderstorms this morning across eastern KS/NE into northern MO and IA/IL. This activity will tend to remain elevated, but could pose an isolated hail threat. In the wake of this convection, low-level moisture is expected to continue streaming northward today ahead of the cold front, with upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints common by mid afternoon. Cold temperatures aloft and steepened mid-level lapse rates will support the development of at least 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE with daytime heating. More instability should exist farther south into KS where greater low-level moisture will be in place.

Current expectations are for scattered robust thunderstorms to develop around mid afternoon (20-22Z) across southeast NE/northern KS and vicinity, in close proximity to the surface low and ejecting shortwave trough. Additional convection may also form farther south into central/eastern KS. Strong deep-layer shear associated with a 50-70+ kt mid-level jet will easily support organized updrafts, including multiple supercells initially. This activity will pose a risk for large to very large hail, but fairly quick upscale growth into one or more bowing clusters with a wind damage threat seems probable along/ahead of the cold front as convection spreads into IA/MO through the evening. Some risk for at least isolated severe/damaging winds may persist late tonight into early Saturday morning across WI/IL and perhaps even Lower MI if one of these clusters can maintain intensity, although instability is forecast to become more limited with eastward extent across these areas.

A few tornadoes may occur with sustained supercells or embedded QLCS circulations across the central Plains/Midwest along/south of the warm front given favorable low-level shear and enlarged/curved hodographs. A strong tornado appears possible with any supercells this evening as low-level shear strengthens in tandem with a south-southwesterly low-level jet. The Enhanced Risk has been expanded a little north/westward in northeast KS, southeast NE, and southwest IA to account for the very large hail potential with initial supercell development. Some consideration was also given to greater severe wind probabilities in IA, but confidence in a more concentrated corridor of damaging winds is low given the weaker instability forecast with eastward extent across the Midwest.

Southern Plains into the Ozarks

Convective initiation along the length of the dryline in OK/TX remains highly uncertain this afternoon/evening, as low-level convergence will be weak and stronger large-scale ascent associated with the ejecting shortwave trough will remain mostly displaced to the north of these areas. Still, recent HRRR/RAP/NAM guidance suggests that MLCIN will be minimal by peak afternoon heating, with moderate instability in place along/east of the dryline. If any cells can form and be sustained, they would likely become severe and pose a threat for very large hail given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates noted on the 12Z OUN observed sounding, along with around 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear aiding updraft organization. The tornado threat would also increase this evening with any persistent supercells as low-level shear gradually strengthens. Regardless, the chance for convective initiation still appears highly uncertain/conditional this afternoon. A better chance for robust thunderstorm development remains apparent later this evening/tonight as the cold front advances southward. Both large hail and damaging winds may occur with this overnight activity through the end of the period.

Most guidance also continues to show a somewhat separate area of thunderstorms developing farther east across eastern OK/western AR and vicinity this afternoon into early evening. This activity might be aided by a very weak mid-level perturbation moving northeastward today across central/northeast TX. If this convection develops, then it would pose a threat for all hazards, including large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes (some of which could be strong). No changes have been made to the Enhanced Risk across the southern Plains/Ozarks with this update.

..Gleason/Dean.. 03/06/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

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Outlook for Saturday, March 7

Outlook Summary

Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from Saturday morning into the evening across a broad swath of the southern Great Plains to the Lower Great Lakes. Isolated very large hail may occur in parts of Texas.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 060653

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Fri Mar 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO LOWER GREAT LAKES

### SUMMARY

Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from Saturday morning into the evening across a broad swath of the southern Great Plains to the Lower Great Lakes. Isolated very large hail may occur in parts of Texas.

Synopsis

An upper shortwave trough, with multiple embedded shortwave impulses, will migrate east across the Midwest and Great Lakes regions on Saturday. Meanwhile, an upper low over the Southwest/Lower CO Valley will continue to retrograde, becoming positioned offshore from Baja CA by Sunday morning. At the surface, low pressure over the Upper Great Lakes will deepen as it shifts northeast across Ontario and Quebec. A trailing cold front will extend south/southwest from the low toward the Lower MO Valley and into north and central TX at the beginning of the period. This front will sweep east/southeast across the Midwest and Mid-South/TN Valley vicinity, while the Plains portion of the front develops southward across TX.

Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes vicinity

Convection will be ongoing across portions of the region Saturday morning along outflow positioned well ahead of the synoptic cold front. Southwesterly low-level flow and the deepening surface cyclone over the Great Lakes will maintain upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints across the region. Cloudiness and ongoing convection will limit surface heating. However, strong deep-layer southwesterly flow and modest destabilization (MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg) will support sustained thunderstorm development into the afternoon/evening.

The greatest risk for severe appears to be across the Upper Ohio Valley where some stronger heating is possible. Sufficient low-level speed shear will be present to enlarge low-level hodographs. Furthermore, 0-1 km SRH values near 150 m2/s2 are noted in some forecast soundings. However, linear convection is expected to be the main storm mode given boundary-parallel deep-layer southwesterly flow, promoting mainly a damaging wind risk. However, if any cellular convection develops, an isolated risk for marginally severe hail and a tornado or two also will be possible.

TX into the Mid-South and Lower MS/TN Valleys

Convection is expected to be ongoing near the surface front Saturday morning. Some of this convection may be elevated as it quickly becomes undercut by the cold front, especially near the Red River into portions of AR. This activity may pose a risk for severe hail early in the period across north TX into southeast OK and parts of AR. Convection is expected to develop south and east along the front through the day. The downstream warm sector will be characterized by low to mid 60s F dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates, supporting MLCAPE in the 500-1500 J/kg range. Linear convection will be most predominant across the Mid-South into the TN valley where a risk for isolated to scattered wind damage and marginal hail will exist through the afternoon before a weakening trend ensues after sunset across the Deep South.

Across TX, steeper midlevel lapse rates are forecast. Low level flow is expected to remain modest further removed from the upper shortwave trough and surface cyclone across the Midwest/Great Lakes. However, stronger heating, steeper low and midlevel lapse rates, and favorable wind profiles for organized supercells will support a corridor of severe hail potential from central TX toward southwest AR/northwest LA near the undercutting cold front. The strongest storms could produce hail in the 1.5-2 inch range.

..Leitman.. 03/06/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Sunday, March 8

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms potential is low on Sunday.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 060800

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Fri Mar 06 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms potential is low on Sunday.

Synopsis

A lower-amplitude upper-level pattern defined by westerly flow aloft east of the Rockies will overspread the central and eastern U.S. on Sunday. Meanwhile, an upper low will persist offshore from Baja CA. At the surface, a cold front will move offshore the Northeast coast by late afternoon. The southern extension of this boundary will stall from the Mid-Atlantic into the TN Valley. Meanwhile, the western portion of the boundary across eastern and southern TX will lift northward late in the period. Gulf moisture will remain in place across the southeast U.S. into TX, but limited large-scale ascent and lack of height falls within the quasi-zonal regime will limit severe potential. Nevertheless, isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of the Lower MS Valley along remnant outflow from the Day 2/Sat period. The warm advection regime across TX also may support isolated thunderstorms through the period. Overall, severe thunderstorm potential appears low.

..Leitman.. 03/06/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Monday, March 9

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 061046 SPC AC 061046

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 AM CST Fri Mar 06 2026

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

CORRECTED FOR TEXT

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Monday

A weak upper shortwave impulse is expected to migrate across the Ozarks/Lower MS Valley on Monday. This will support a narrow corridor of enhanced westerly flow aloft atop a moistening boundary layer. Isolated thunderstorms may develop across the ArkLaTex to Lower MS Valley vicinity within the warm advection regime, and a few storms could become strong to locally severe. However, modest forcing and otherwise lack of low-level focus precludes a 15 percent delineation.

Day 5/Tuesday into Day 6/Wednesday

An upper low and attendant shortwave trough over northwest Mexico is forecast to eject eastward toward the southern High Plains on Tuesday. At the same time, a broad upper trough within northern stream flow will develop east from the northern Plains to the Upper Midwest. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will overspread a large warm/moist sector from the southern Plains to the Mid/Lower MS and Ohio Valleys. A complex surface pattern is expected to emerge, influenced by the split-flow upper troughing pattern. A baroclinic zone extending from OK to the Mid-MS Valley area will be one focus for severe thunderstorm potential. Meanwhile, lee surface troughing across west TX and a developing dryline will be another focus for severe storm development. While details remain uncertain, these surface features, combined with strengthening southwesterly flow overspreading a warm and unstable airmass, will likely foster a broad area of severe thunderstorm potential from the southern Plains into the Midwest.

As the upper troughs from Day 5/Tuesday continue east across the southern Plains and Great Lakes on Day 6/Wednesday, a cold front is expected to develop southeast across the Ohio Valley into east Texas. Spread among forecast guidance increases during this time, leading to more uncertainty. However, most guidance has some overlap of favorable low-level moisture and instability with stronger mid/upper level flow across portions of east TX into the Lower MS Valley. As a result, a 15 percent area has been delineated. This area may need to shift/expand northeast with time depending on trends in model guidance, but currently, it is uncertain if sufficient destabilization will occur further northeast, precluding severe probabilities into the TN/OH Valleys vicinity.

Days 7-8/Thursday-Friday

Predictability is low toward the end of the forecast period as forecast model spread continues to increase. While it is plausible some severe risk could persist into the Southeast on Day 7/Thursday as the upper trough over the Lower MS Valley continues to migrate east, uncertainty is too high to include probabilities at this time.

..Leitman.. 03/06/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, March 10

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 061046 SPC AC 061046

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 AM CST Fri Mar 06 2026

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

CORRECTED FOR TEXT

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Monday

A weak upper shortwave impulse is expected to migrate across the Ozarks/Lower MS Valley on Monday. This will support a narrow corridor of enhanced westerly flow aloft atop a moistening boundary layer. Isolated thunderstorms may develop across the ArkLaTex to Lower MS Valley vicinity within the warm advection regime, and a few storms could become strong to locally severe. However, modest forcing and otherwise lack of low-level focus precludes a 15 percent delineation.

Day 5/Tuesday into Day 6/Wednesday

An upper low and attendant shortwave trough over northwest Mexico is forecast to eject eastward toward the southern High Plains on Tuesday. At the same time, a broad upper trough within northern stream flow will develop east from the northern Plains to the Upper Midwest. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will overspread a large warm/moist sector from the southern Plains to the Mid/Lower MS and Ohio Valleys. A complex surface pattern is expected to emerge, influenced by the split-flow upper troughing pattern. A baroclinic zone extending from OK to the Mid-MS Valley area will be one focus for severe thunderstorm potential. Meanwhile, lee surface troughing across west TX and a developing dryline will be another focus for severe storm development. While details remain uncertain, these surface features, combined with strengthening southwesterly flow overspreading a warm and unstable airmass, will likely foster a broad area of severe thunderstorm potential from the southern Plains into the Midwest.

As the upper troughs from Day 5/Tuesday continue east across the southern Plains and Great Lakes on Day 6/Wednesday, a cold front is expected to develop southeast across the Ohio Valley into east Texas. Spread among forecast guidance increases during this time, leading to more uncertainty. However, most guidance has some overlap of favorable low-level moisture and instability with stronger mid/upper level flow across portions of east TX into the Lower MS Valley. As a result, a 15 percent area has been delineated. This area may need to shift/expand northeast with time depending on trends in model guidance, but currently, it is uncertain if sufficient destabilization will occur further northeast, precluding severe probabilities into the TN/OH Valleys vicinity.

Days 7-8/Thursday-Friday

Predictability is low toward the end of the forecast period as forecast model spread continues to increase. While it is plausible some severe risk could persist into the Southeast on Day 7/Thursday as the upper trough over the Lower MS Valley continues to migrate east, uncertainty is too high to include probabilities at this time.

..Leitman.. 03/06/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, March 11

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 061046 SPC AC 061046

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 AM CST Fri Mar 06 2026

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

CORRECTED FOR TEXT

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Monday

A weak upper shortwave impulse is expected to migrate across the Ozarks/Lower MS Valley on Monday. This will support a narrow corridor of enhanced westerly flow aloft atop a moistening boundary layer. Isolated thunderstorms may develop across the ArkLaTex to Lower MS Valley vicinity within the warm advection regime, and a few storms could become strong to locally severe. However, modest forcing and otherwise lack of low-level focus precludes a 15 percent delineation.

Day 5/Tuesday into Day 6/Wednesday

An upper low and attendant shortwave trough over northwest Mexico is forecast to eject eastward toward the southern High Plains on Tuesday. At the same time, a broad upper trough within northern stream flow will develop east from the northern Plains to the Upper Midwest. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will overspread a large warm/moist sector from the southern Plains to the Mid/Lower MS and Ohio Valleys. A complex surface pattern is expected to emerge, influenced by the split-flow upper troughing pattern. A baroclinic zone extending from OK to the Mid-MS Valley area will be one focus for severe thunderstorm potential. Meanwhile, lee surface troughing across west TX and a developing dryline will be another focus for severe storm development. While details remain uncertain, these surface features, combined with strengthening southwesterly flow overspreading a warm and unstable airmass, will likely foster a broad area of severe thunderstorm potential from the southern Plains into the Midwest.

As the upper troughs from Day 5/Tuesday continue east across the southern Plains and Great Lakes on Day 6/Wednesday, a cold front is expected to develop southeast across the Ohio Valley into east Texas. Spread among forecast guidance increases during this time, leading to more uncertainty. However, most guidance has some overlap of favorable low-level moisture and instability with stronger mid/upper level flow across portions of east TX into the Lower MS Valley. As a result, a 15 percent area has been delineated. This area may need to shift/expand northeast with time depending on trends in model guidance, but currently, it is uncertain if sufficient destabilization will occur further northeast, precluding severe probabilities into the TN/OH Valleys vicinity.

Days 7-8/Thursday-Friday

Predictability is low toward the end of the forecast period as forecast model spread continues to increase. While it is plausible some severe risk could persist into the Southeast on Day 7/Thursday as the upper trough over the Lower MS Valley continues to migrate east, uncertainty is too high to include probabilities at this time.

..Leitman.. 03/06/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Thursday, March 12

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 061046 SPC AC 061046

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 AM CST Fri Mar 06 2026

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

CORRECTED FOR TEXT

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Monday

A weak upper shortwave impulse is expected to migrate across the Ozarks/Lower MS Valley on Monday. This will support a narrow corridor of enhanced westerly flow aloft atop a moistening boundary layer. Isolated thunderstorms may develop across the ArkLaTex to Lower MS Valley vicinity within the warm advection regime, and a few storms could become strong to locally severe. However, modest forcing and otherwise lack of low-level focus precludes a 15 percent delineation.

Day 5/Tuesday into Day 6/Wednesday

An upper low and attendant shortwave trough over northwest Mexico is forecast to eject eastward toward the southern High Plains on Tuesday. At the same time, a broad upper trough within northern stream flow will develop east from the northern Plains to the Upper Midwest. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will overspread a large warm/moist sector from the southern Plains to the Mid/Lower MS and Ohio Valleys. A complex surface pattern is expected to emerge, influenced by the split-flow upper troughing pattern. A baroclinic zone extending from OK to the Mid-MS Valley area will be one focus for severe thunderstorm potential. Meanwhile, lee surface troughing across west TX and a developing dryline will be another focus for severe storm development. While details remain uncertain, these surface features, combined with strengthening southwesterly flow overspreading a warm and unstable airmass, will likely foster a broad area of severe thunderstorm potential from the southern Plains into the Midwest.

As the upper troughs from Day 5/Tuesday continue east across the southern Plains and Great Lakes on Day 6/Wednesday, a cold front is expected to develop southeast across the Ohio Valley into east Texas. Spread among forecast guidance increases during this time, leading to more uncertainty. However, most guidance has some overlap of favorable low-level moisture and instability with stronger mid/upper level flow across portions of east TX into the Lower MS Valley. As a result, a 15 percent area has been delineated. This area may need to shift/expand northeast with time depending on trends in model guidance, but currently, it is uncertain if sufficient destabilization will occur further northeast, precluding severe probabilities into the TN/OH Valleys vicinity.

Days 7-8/Thursday-Friday

Predictability is low toward the end of the forecast period as forecast model spread continues to increase. While it is plausible some severe risk could persist into the Southeast on Day 7/Thursday as the upper trough over the Lower MS Valley continues to migrate east, uncertainty is too high to include probabilities at this time.

..Leitman.. 03/06/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Friday, March 13

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 061046 SPC AC 061046

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 AM CST Fri Mar 06 2026

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

CORRECTED FOR TEXT

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Monday

A weak upper shortwave impulse is expected to migrate across the Ozarks/Lower MS Valley on Monday. This will support a narrow corridor of enhanced westerly flow aloft atop a moistening boundary layer. Isolated thunderstorms may develop across the ArkLaTex to Lower MS Valley vicinity within the warm advection regime, and a few storms could become strong to locally severe. However, modest forcing and otherwise lack of low-level focus precludes a 15 percent delineation.

Day 5/Tuesday into Day 6/Wednesday

An upper low and attendant shortwave trough over northwest Mexico is forecast to eject eastward toward the southern High Plains on Tuesday. At the same time, a broad upper trough within northern stream flow will develop east from the northern Plains to the Upper Midwest. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will overspread a large warm/moist sector from the southern Plains to the Mid/Lower MS and Ohio Valleys. A complex surface pattern is expected to emerge, influenced by the split-flow upper troughing pattern. A baroclinic zone extending from OK to the Mid-MS Valley area will be one focus for severe thunderstorm potential. Meanwhile, lee surface troughing across west TX and a developing dryline will be another focus for severe storm development. While details remain uncertain, these surface features, combined with strengthening southwesterly flow overspreading a warm and unstable airmass, will likely foster a broad area of severe thunderstorm potential from the southern Plains into the Midwest.

As the upper troughs from Day 5/Tuesday continue east across the southern Plains and Great Lakes on Day 6/Wednesday, a cold front is expected to develop southeast across the Ohio Valley into east Texas. Spread among forecast guidance increases during this time, leading to more uncertainty. However, most guidance has some overlap of favorable low-level moisture and instability with stronger mid/upper level flow across portions of east TX into the Lower MS Valley. As a result, a 15 percent area has been delineated. This area may need to shift/expand northeast with time depending on trends in model guidance, but currently, it is uncertain if sufficient destabilization will occur further northeast, precluding severe probabilities into the TN/OH Valleys vicinity.

Days 7-8/Thursday-Friday

Predictability is low toward the end of the forecast period as forecast model spread continues to increase. While it is plausible some severe risk could persist into the Southeast on Day 7/Thursday as the upper trough over the Lower MS Valley continues to migrate east, uncertainty is too high to include probabilities at this time.

..Leitman.. 03/06/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Friday, March 6

TORNADO: 10%

HAIL: 30%

WIND: 15%

Saturday, March 7

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Sunday, March 8

ANY SEVERE: low

Monday, March 9

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Tuesday, March 10

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Wednesday, March 11

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Thursday, March 12

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, March 13

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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