Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Sunday, July 26

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail, damaging winds (possibly 75+ mph), and tornado risk are expected from the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes southwestward into Nebraska, mainly this afternoon and tonight.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 261610

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Valid 261630Z - 271200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail, damaging winds (possibly 75+ mph), and tornado risk are expected from the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes southwestward into Nebraska, mainly this afternoon and tonight.

Upper Midwest/Great Lakes

Initial supercell storms are expected to develop across northern MN/WI later this afternoon, aided by a favorably timed shortwave impulse rounding the Plains upper ridge. Another MCV/shortwave impulse located over the Dakotas at midday will also spread east/southeast across southern/central MN this afternoon. These features will provide support for one or more focused areas of thunderstorm development. Initial supercells will pose an all-hazards risk, including locally severe wind gusts, very large hail, and a couple of tornadoes. With time into the evening, initial supercells may grow into one or two small bowing MCSs. This storm mode transition will support an increased risk for intense damaging wind swaths this evening into tonight as convection spreads southeast along a strong instability/moisture gradient across WI and the Lake Michigan vicinity.

Mid-Mississippi/Lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys

Multiple areas of strong to severe storms will be possible this afternoon into tonight from near the MS River into IL/IN/KY/TN. Thunderstorm development may be aided by a weak shortwave impulse/MCV migrating southeast from IA at midday and into the Lower OH Valley this evening. Storms are expected to develop along a corridor of differential heating near/just east of the MS River where mostly clear skies this morning have already resulted in temperatures approaching 85-90 F, while scattered clouds further east will maintain somewhat lower high temperatures. Thunderstorm clusters this afternoon will pose a risk for severe/damaging wind gusts. Sufficient clustering may occur and some upscale development into a forward propagating bow may occur across the Lower Ohio Valley vicinity this evening, and wind probabilities have been increased to 30 percent for parts of southern IL/IN and western KY.

This activity could be maintained southward during the overnight hours as far south as northern AL/GA given favorable instability and sufficiently strong northwesterly flow aloft. Damaging wind gusts could persist with this activity as it spreads south/southeast across TN into AL/GA toward early Monday morning.

NE/SD/IA

A deeply mixed and hot boundary layer will develop this afternoon/early evening in the vicinity of a weak surface trough from NE into southeast SD/northwest IA. Very steep lapse rates aloft will foster 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Vertically veering wind profiles and increasing northwesterly flow aloft will provide 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes and a few organized cells/clusters may develop by late afternoon. Damaging wind gusts of 60-80 mph would be the main hazard with this activity. While temperatures are somewhat warm aloft, the strongest storms could produce sporadic large hail.

Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas/Southeast GA/Northern FL

Upper troughing will persist today across the East, though some enhancement to northwesterly flow aloft is expected. Relatively cool conditions, weak lapse rates, and the potential influence of smoke will temper destabilization across the Mid-Atlantic. Nevertheless, MLCAPE 1000 J/kg amid 25-35 kt of effective shear may support occasional organized storms capable of producing locally damaging gusts.

Stronger heating/destabilization is expected farther south across the Carolinas into GA/FL. Deep-layer flow/shear will be somewhat weaker compared to farther north, but may still be sufficient for transient storm organization with sporadic locally damaging winds possible.

Southeast MT/northern WY/Black Hills vicinity

High-based convection is expected to develop this afternoon along the northern periphery of the upper ridge, with the greatest storm coverage expected across parts of northern Wyoming and southern Montana. Overall buoyancy is expected to remain weak, but inverted-v profiles will support a threat of strong to localized severe gusts as storms spread eastward toward the Black Hills before weakening into mid/late evening.

..Leitman.. 07/26/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

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Outlook for Monday, July 27

Outlook Summary

Severe storms capable of mainly damaging winds and large hail are possible across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley Monday into Monday night. More sporadic occurrences of damaging wind appear possible in the Mid-Atlantic, Tennessee Valley, central High Plains, and southeast Arizona.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 260540

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Severe storms capable of mainly damaging winds and large hail are possible across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley Monday into Monday night. More sporadic occurrences of damaging wind appear possible in the Mid-Atlantic, Tennessee Valley, central High Plains, and southeast Arizona.

Synopsis

Within the northeast periphery of an upper high centered over the southern High Plains, a low-amplitude short-wave trough and associated mid-level jet streak will move through the Great Lakes. At the surface, an area of low pressure over WI Monday morning is forecast to develop either south or southeast along a cold front advancing south through the Great Lakes. The western extension of that boundary is expected to stall over the mid MO Valley into central High Plains.

### Great Lakes into the Tennessee Valley and central Appalachians

Latest model data indicate the potential for multiple storm clusters to be ongoing at 12Z Monday from northern MN into the Midwest within a broad zone of warm advection and moisture transport centered around 850 mb. The duration and extent of any early-day storms will have implications on the subsequent air mass destabilization later in the day ahead of the synoptic cold front. Where stronger heating can occur, the presence of boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s to low/mid 70s beneath the eastern edge of an EML plume will yield MLCAPE as high as 2500-3500+ J/kg.

As alluded to above, there is considerable model spread in location of storm initiation and subsequent evolution Monday afternoon into night. That being said, storm development appears most probable along the cold front in WI and lower MI Monday afternoon or evening within a zone of strengthening forcing for ascent preceding the short-wave trough. The presence of 40-50+ kt effective bulk shear magnitudes will support organized storm modes, including supercells initially with an associated large hail threat. The extent of any tornado threat will be dependent on semi-discrete supercells being maintained within a zone of stronger low-level shear from southeast WI and southern lower MI into northern IL and IN, and perhaps western OH Monday afternoon and evening.

Damaging-wind potential is expected to increase Monday evening into night as storms coalesce into one or multiple cold-pool-driven MCSs. The preferred corridor for that occurrence still appears to be from lower MI into IN and OH, and perhaps KY, where an upgrade to a level-3/Enhanced Risk may become necessary in later outlooks. Storm clusters capable of damaging winds could reach as far south and east as the TN Valley through Cumberland Plateau and Allegheny Mountains Monday night, owing to modestly strong north/northwest steering winds.

### Mid-Atlantic

A southeastward extension of stronger, mid/upper-level winds is forecast to overspread the region Monday afternoon into night with effective bulk shear approaching 30 kt in some areas during the peak of the diurnal heating cycle. Scattered storms appear possible along a lee trough Monday afternoon within a moist and moderately unstable air mass with MLCAPE up to 1000-2000 J/kg. Steepening low-level lapse rates will enhance damaging wind potential, especially in areas of stronger shear where some cold-pool organization is possible.

### Central High Plains

Aided by a weak mid-level disturbance rotating around the upper high, widely scattered thunderstorms appear possible within a moist and moderately unstable upslope regime Monday afternoon into evening. Forecast soundings indicate a well-mixed boundary layer with sizable temperature-dewpoint spreads, suggesting the potential for a few severe wind gusts with the strongest storms.

### Southeast Arizona

Model soundings indicate some enhancement of easterly mid-level flow across the region Monday with effective bulk shear magnitudes up to 35 kt. The models indicate afternoon storm initiation along the higher terrain closer to the international border within a relatively deep and well-mixed boundary layer. Some cold-pool organization appears possible given the stronger vertical shear with an associated risk of severe wind gusts.

..Mead.. 07/26/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, July 28

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms capable of mainly damaging winds appear possible from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas and central and southern Appalachians Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Isolated severe wind gusts may occur in the central High Plains.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 260726

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms capable of mainly damaging winds appear possible from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas and central and southern Appalachians Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Isolated severe wind gusts may occur in the central High Plains.

Synopsis

A short-wave trough initially over the lower Great Lakes Tuesday morning is forecast to evolve into a closed low over the Mid-Atlantic. Within the base of that feature, a belt of enhanced mid-level flow will spread from the OH Valley into VA and NC by afternoon. At the surface, an area of low pressure over southwest ON Tuesday morning is expected to reform in the Delmarva by afternoon with a lee trough extending southwest along the Piedmont. Meanwhile, a cold front will advance southeast through the central and southern Appalachians, the southern Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas.

### Mid-Atlantic into Southern Appalachians

Showers and thunderstorms (some potentially strong) are expected to be ongoing Tuesday morning from the upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and central Appalachians within a zone of forcing for ascent preceding the short-wave trough. Various 00Z model data indicate deep convection lingering into afternoon from the central Appalachians into the Delmarva and points north, leading to uncertainty in the degree of air mass destabilization in those areas. Where stronger heating can occur, the presence of a moist air mass will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon within a kinematic environment featuring anywhere from 30 to 45 kt of deep-layer shear.

Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity during the afternoon preferentially along the cold front and lee trough where sufficient destabilization has occurred. Organized storm modes appear possible, including supercells and bowing structures, with the primary hazards being damaging wind gusts. Some tornado threat could materialize Tuesday afternoon in the Delmarva near the surface low. That threat is conditional on sufficient air mass destabilization and the presence of a supercell mode.

### Northern and Central High Plains

Between a deepening lee trough over the northern High Plains and a stalled surface front along the KS-OK border, a zone of moist and moderately unstable upslope flow is forecast. Thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon and evening along favored terrain with 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear supporting some level of organization. Severe wind gusts appear to be the primary hazard with the strongest storms.

..Mead.. 07/26/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, July 29

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260832 SPC AC 260832

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Wednesday

The large-scale pattern will feature an upper high over the southern High Plains with ridging extending into the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. Meanwhile, broader-scale troughing will persist across the eastern CONUS, anchored by an upper low over the Mid-Atlantic.

A very moist air mass is expected to contribute to moderate to strong instability by afternoon along a cold front over the Southeast. While vertical shear will remain rather weak, the strong buoyancy will be supportive of locally intense downdrafts capable of damaging winds. Elsewhere, a few strong to severe storms appear possible within a moist upslope regime over the central High Plains, as well as along a cold front moving into the northern High Plains.

### Days 5 and 6/Thursday and Friday

The southwestern U.S. ridge/eastern U.S. trough configuration will be maintained this period. Between those features, a notable short-wave trough is forecast to track from the northern Plains into the mid MS Valley along with a surface frontal system. Persistent low-level ridging from the Great Lakes into the Gulf Coast states will limit the breadth of an unstable warm sector to the northern and central Plains on Thursday, where thunderstorms are expected. Vertical shear is not forecast to be particularly strong; however, some potential exists for an organized severe weather episode. Additional strong to severe storms appear possible along the front in the Ozarks on Friday. Both days will continue to be monitored for the possible inclusion of severe weather probabilities in subsequent forecasts.

### Days 7 and 8/Saturday and Sunday

There is good agreement across the ensemble means in the progression of a more significant short-wave trough from western into central Canada with the southern fringe of more substantial height falls overspreading the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains on Sunday. That upper-air system will be attended by a cold front that could be the source of severe storm development in those areas Sunday afternoon into night.

..Mead.. 07/26/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Thursday, July 30

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260832 SPC AC 260832

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Wednesday

The large-scale pattern will feature an upper high over the southern High Plains with ridging extending into the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. Meanwhile, broader-scale troughing will persist across the eastern CONUS, anchored by an upper low over the Mid-Atlantic.

A very moist air mass is expected to contribute to moderate to strong instability by afternoon along a cold front over the Southeast. While vertical shear will remain rather weak, the strong buoyancy will be supportive of locally intense downdrafts capable of damaging winds. Elsewhere, a few strong to severe storms appear possible within a moist upslope regime over the central High Plains, as well as along a cold front moving into the northern High Plains.

### Days 5 and 6/Thursday and Friday

The southwestern U.S. ridge/eastern U.S. trough configuration will be maintained this period. Between those features, a notable short-wave trough is forecast to track from the northern Plains into the mid MS Valley along with a surface frontal system. Persistent low-level ridging from the Great Lakes into the Gulf Coast states will limit the breadth of an unstable warm sector to the northern and central Plains on Thursday, where thunderstorms are expected. Vertical shear is not forecast to be particularly strong; however, some potential exists for an organized severe weather episode. Additional strong to severe storms appear possible along the front in the Ozarks on Friday. Both days will continue to be monitored for the possible inclusion of severe weather probabilities in subsequent forecasts.

### Days 7 and 8/Saturday and Sunday

There is good agreement across the ensemble means in the progression of a more significant short-wave trough from western into central Canada with the southern fringe of more substantial height falls overspreading the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains on Sunday. That upper-air system will be attended by a cold front that could be the source of severe storm development in those areas Sunday afternoon into night.

..Mead.. 07/26/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Friday, July 31

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260832 SPC AC 260832

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Wednesday

The large-scale pattern will feature an upper high over the southern High Plains with ridging extending into the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. Meanwhile, broader-scale troughing will persist across the eastern CONUS, anchored by an upper low over the Mid-Atlantic.

A very moist air mass is expected to contribute to moderate to strong instability by afternoon along a cold front over the Southeast. While vertical shear will remain rather weak, the strong buoyancy will be supportive of locally intense downdrafts capable of damaging winds. Elsewhere, a few strong to severe storms appear possible within a moist upslope regime over the central High Plains, as well as along a cold front moving into the northern High Plains.

### Days 5 and 6/Thursday and Friday

The southwestern U.S. ridge/eastern U.S. trough configuration will be maintained this period. Between those features, a notable short-wave trough is forecast to track from the northern Plains into the mid MS Valley along with a surface frontal system. Persistent low-level ridging from the Great Lakes into the Gulf Coast states will limit the breadth of an unstable warm sector to the northern and central Plains on Thursday, where thunderstorms are expected. Vertical shear is not forecast to be particularly strong; however, some potential exists for an organized severe weather episode. Additional strong to severe storms appear possible along the front in the Ozarks on Friday. Both days will continue to be monitored for the possible inclusion of severe weather probabilities in subsequent forecasts.

### Days 7 and 8/Saturday and Sunday

There is good agreement across the ensemble means in the progression of a more significant short-wave trough from western into central Canada with the southern fringe of more substantial height falls overspreading the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains on Sunday. That upper-air system will be attended by a cold front that could be the source of severe storm development in those areas Sunday afternoon into night.

..Mead.. 07/26/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, August 1

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260832 SPC AC 260832

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Wednesday

The large-scale pattern will feature an upper high over the southern High Plains with ridging extending into the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. Meanwhile, broader-scale troughing will persist across the eastern CONUS, anchored by an upper low over the Mid-Atlantic.

A very moist air mass is expected to contribute to moderate to strong instability by afternoon along a cold front over the Southeast. While vertical shear will remain rather weak, the strong buoyancy will be supportive of locally intense downdrafts capable of damaging winds. Elsewhere, a few strong to severe storms appear possible within a moist upslope regime over the central High Plains, as well as along a cold front moving into the northern High Plains.

### Days 5 and 6/Thursday and Friday

The southwestern U.S. ridge/eastern U.S. trough configuration will be maintained this period. Between those features, a notable short-wave trough is forecast to track from the northern Plains into the mid MS Valley along with a surface frontal system. Persistent low-level ridging from the Great Lakes into the Gulf Coast states will limit the breadth of an unstable warm sector to the northern and central Plains on Thursday, where thunderstorms are expected. Vertical shear is not forecast to be particularly strong; however, some potential exists for an organized severe weather episode. Additional strong to severe storms appear possible along the front in the Ozarks on Friday. Both days will continue to be monitored for the possible inclusion of severe weather probabilities in subsequent forecasts.

### Days 7 and 8/Saturday and Sunday

There is good agreement across the ensemble means in the progression of a more significant short-wave trough from western into central Canada with the southern fringe of more substantial height falls overspreading the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains on Sunday. That upper-air system will be attended by a cold front that could be the source of severe storm development in those areas Sunday afternoon into night.

..Mead.. 07/26/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, August 2

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260832 SPC AC 260832

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Wednesday

The large-scale pattern will feature an upper high over the southern High Plains with ridging extending into the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. Meanwhile, broader-scale troughing will persist across the eastern CONUS, anchored by an upper low over the Mid-Atlantic.

A very moist air mass is expected to contribute to moderate to strong instability by afternoon along a cold front over the Southeast. While vertical shear will remain rather weak, the strong buoyancy will be supportive of locally intense downdrafts capable of damaging winds. Elsewhere, a few strong to severe storms appear possible within a moist upslope regime over the central High Plains, as well as along a cold front moving into the northern High Plains.

### Days 5 and 6/Thursday and Friday

The southwestern U.S. ridge/eastern U.S. trough configuration will be maintained this period. Between those features, a notable short-wave trough is forecast to track from the northern Plains into the mid MS Valley along with a surface frontal system. Persistent low-level ridging from the Great Lakes into the Gulf Coast states will limit the breadth of an unstable warm sector to the northern and central Plains on Thursday, where thunderstorms are expected. Vertical shear is not forecast to be particularly strong; however, some potential exists for an organized severe weather episode. Additional strong to severe storms appear possible along the front in the Ozarks on Friday. Both days will continue to be monitored for the possible inclusion of severe weather probabilities in subsequent forecasts.

### Days 7 and 8/Saturday and Sunday

There is good agreement across the ensemble means in the progression of a more significant short-wave trough from western into central Canada with the southern fringe of more substantial height falls overspreading the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains on Sunday. That upper-air system will be attended by a cold front that could be the source of severe storm development in those areas Sunday afternoon into night.

..Mead.. 07/26/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Sunday, July 26

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 30%

WIND: 30%

Monday, July 27

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 30%

Tuesday, July 28

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Wednesday, July 29

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Thursday, July 30

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, July 31

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Saturday, August 1

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Sunday, August 2

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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