Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Monday, June 22

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and perhaps a couple of tornadoes should occur this afternoon and evening across portions of the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also expected across the northern/central High Plains, with large to very large hail and a tornado or two.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 221957

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Valid 222000Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and perhaps a couple of tornadoes should occur this afternoon and evening across portions of the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also expected across the northern/central High Plains, with large to very large hail and a tornado or two.

20z Update Central High Plains

Minimal changes were made to the prior outlook. Strong to severe storms, including supercells, are developing across parts of WY and CO and should spread east/southeastward this afternoon and evening. Steep mid-level lapse rates and the discrete mode should favor significant severe hail with these storms into this evening. A tornado or two is also possible, focused mostly along the Cheyenne Ridge where stronger low-level shear is being observed.

Mid Atlantic

Several rounds of storms remain likely this afternoon and evening beneath the strong mid-level zonal flow aloft. Damaging winds appear to be the most likely threat with scattered but mostly cellular storms through this evening. A tornado or two remains possible. This is most likely near the warm front across northern NJ and southern Long Island where stronger and backed low-level flow is supporting 100-150 0-1km SRH.

Some guidance shows an increase in storm clustering and stronger outflow gusts from northern VA into northern MD/DE and southern PA/NJ this evening. Should this occur, a locally more favorable corridor of damaging winds could develop. However, this remains very uncertain given the more scattered and cellular convection observed so far.

TX/OK

Some mode signal exists for isolated convective development this afternoon along the trailing outflow boundary across north TX from the morning MCS. Very large buoyancy and steep mid-level lapse rates could support hail with these storms. However, the lack of broader large-scale ascent suggests more isolated coverage through this evening.

..Lyons.. 06/22/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026/

Mid Atlantic

Relatively fast zonal flow is present today from the OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US, with a shortwave trough evident over OH/MI. As this feature tracks eastward, it will push a surface cold front southward across the central Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic region. Considerable clouds are present ahead of the front from KY/WV into VA/PA/NJ, limiting destabilization and confidence in the details of where clusters of storms may form later today. However, given the relatively strong winds aloft and dewpoints in the 60s, it would seem likely that scattered strong to severe storms will occur, capable of locally damaging winds and perhaps a tornado.

TN/MS/AL/GA

The remnants of a severe overnight MCS are over AR/west TN/northern MS. This system has considerable mesoscale organization with an MCV noted over eastern AR. A very moist and unstable air mass is in place ahead of this system over northern MS/AL, where heating into the mid 80s will foster thunderstorm intensification this afternoon. Damaging winds are the main concern with these storms, but a low-level jet feature associated with the MCV could result in a few supercell structures and the risk of a tornado or two. Activity will track into north GA this evening. Refer to MD #1252 for further details.

Central High Plains

Similar to yesterday, low-clouds are slowly burning off across the High Plains of eastern CO and western SD/NE/KS, where moderate CAPE values will develop by mid-afternoon. Easterly/upslope flow will contribute to scattered thunderstorm development over eastern WY and southward along the DCVZ in CO. These storms will track into the CAPE axis, where favorable deep-layer shear will promote supercells capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes.

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, June 23

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe storms capable of hail in excess of two inches and wind gusts greater than 75 mph are expected from the central High Plains into parts of the central and southern Plains Tuesday and Tuesday night. Isolated severe storms capable of mainly hail are possible across the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated severe storms capable of damaging winds also appear possible from the Delmarva into eastern North Carolina.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 221722

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe storms capable of hail in excess of two inches and wind gusts greater than 75 mph are expected from the central High Plains into parts of the central and southern Plains Tuesday and Tuesday night. Isolated severe storms capable of mainly hail are possible across the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated severe storms capable of damaging winds also appear possible from the Delmarva into eastern North Carolina.

Synopsis

Within the base of an upper low centered over Saskatchewan and Manitoba, a vorticity lobe will progress through the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley. That disturbance will be attended by a belt of 40-50 kt flow in the mid levels, which will overspread the northern and central Plains. Elsewhere, an apparent MCV initially over western parts of VA and NC at 12Z Tuesday will progress through the Piedmont and Coastal Plain over the course of the day.

At the surface, an area of low pressure is expected to slowly move east along the southern Manitoba, northeast ND, northwest MN border region with an associated cold front trailing southwest into the central High Plains. Along the East Coast, an area of low pressure is forecast to track through VA into the Tidewater region with a trailing cold front moving through the Southeast.

### Central High Plains into the Central and Southern Plains

The 12Z parameterized and convection-allowing models offer various scenarios in regard to the location of ongoing storms Tuesday morning, which in turn affects the evolution of diurnally enhanced storm development by afternoon, and the subsequent track of a severe MCS Tuesday night. Despite these differences, an EML will remain intact across the High Plains, which coupled with a moist, upslope regime in the low levels, will support a moderately unstable air mass by afternoon. Isolated to widely scattered storms appear possible from the vicinity of the Cheyenne Ridge south along the CO Front Range with 40-50+ kt of effective bulk shear favoring supercells capable of large to very large hail. Additional severe storms appear possible during the afternoon across lower elevations of the central and southern Plains, the details of which remain highly uncertain.

As mentioned above, the models are in generally good agreement in depicting the upscale growth of the afternoon storms into a southeastward-moving MCS capable of damaging wind swaths and significant gusts in excess of 75 mph. However, uncertainty in the specific track of the MCS precludes the introduction of higher wind probabilities and a categorical upgrade to a level 3/Enhanced Risk.

### Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest

Multiple clusters of mainly elevated thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Tuesday morning from the eastern Dakotas into northern NE, within a zone of forcing for ascent preceding the disturbance mentioned in the synopsis. Modest instability coupled with 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear may support some transient supercell structures capable of large hail.

Additional surface-based storms appear possible by afternoon in the vicinity of the surface front over the Red River Valley. Some uncertainty still exists in the degree of air mass destabilization owing to the potential for lingering clouds in the wake of the early-day storms. Where greater destabilization can occur, the environment will support mainly a large hail threat. Should stronger heating and resultant steep, low-level lapse rates develop in the vicinity of the front, a brief tornado or two will be possible owing to a local maximum in vertical vorticity. Confidence in that scenario is currently too low to include a 2% probability in this forecast.

### Delmarva into eastern North Carolina

A narrow corridor of severe-weather potential may materialize Tuesday afternoon ahead of the surface low and surface front moving through the area. A slight enhancement of mid-level flow (and resultant vertical shear) will coincide with a moist and moderately unstable air mass to support some organization with the primary hazard being locally damaging wind gusts. Some tornado threat may materialize ahead of the surface low, where backed near-surface winds enhance low-level shear. A 2% tornado probability may need to be included in subsequent Day 1 outlooks should the current model signal persist.

..Mead.. 06/22/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, June 24

Outlook Summary

Widely scattered severe storms are possible across the central High Plains on Wednesday with a threat for large to very large hail. More isolated severe storms are possible across portions of the upper Midwest.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 221930

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Widely scattered severe storms are possible across the central High Plains on Wednesday with a threat for large to very large hail. More isolated severe storms are possible across portions of the upper Midwest.

Synopsis

A short-wave trough is forecast to move from the upper MS Valley into the upper Great Lakes ahead of a sheared vorticity maximum translating from the northern Rockies into the northern and central Plains. Those features will be associated with a belt of enhanced mid-level flow extending from the northern and central High Plains into the Great Lakes. At the surface, an area of low pressure is forecast to weaken over the upper Midwest, along a cold front advancing through that area. The western extension of that boundary will become increasingly less defined with southwestward extent into the central and southern Plains.

### Central and Southern High Plains to the lower Mississippi Valley

As was the case for the Day 2 (Tuesday and Tuesday night) forecast period, there is considerable spread in 12Z model guidance in the location of any ongoing MCS(s) at 12Z Wednesday. The location of those features will dictate the specific location of any more concentrated damaging-wind risk later Wednesday, especially from the Ozark Plateau into lower MS Valley. There is higher confidence in widely scattered afternoon storm development across the central and perhaps southern High Plains within a low-level, upslope regime. The combination of moderate instability and 35-50 kt of deep-layer shear will support supercells capable of large to very large hail as the primary hazard.

There is some model signal that the afternoon High Plains storms will grow upscale into an MCS across lower elevations of the central Plains Wednesday night with an associated damaging-wind risk. Confidence in that scenario is currently too low to extend the 15% probability contour farther east at this time.

### Upper Midwest

Lingering clouds associated with early-day storms may limit air mass destabilization into afternoon. However, where cloud breaks can occur, the combination of cooling temperatures aloft and modest boundary-layer moisture content will support moderate afternoon instability. Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon in the vicinity of the surface low and frontal boundary, and within the belt of stronger mid-level flow, suggesting some potential for large hail with the strongest updrafts.

..Mead.. 06/22/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Thursday, June 25

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220855 SPC AC 220855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Thursday - Central/Northern High Plains

Upslope flow will strengthen across the central/northern High Plains on Thursday as a surface low deepens across the southern High Plains. This, combined with a passing mid-level jet streak and shortwave trough, should result in scattered storm development across the High Plains. The most likely corridor will exist from northern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and far southwestern South Dakota where the stronger mid-level flow/forcing overspreads the unstable warm sector.

Beyond Day 4 there will likely be multiple days with eventual severe weather probabilities given the amplifying trough across the Northwest and moderate mid-level flow overspreading the northern Plains where instability will also be quite strong. However, at this time, there is considerable uncertainty with the timing/location of each of the mid-level shortwave troughs, and for when the core of the jet streak associated with the Northwest CONUS low ejects into the Plains.

Due to these uncertainties, no probabilities have been added beyond Day 4, but eventual probabilities are anticipated in later outlooks.

..Bentley.. 06/22/2026

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Outlook for Friday, June 26

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220855 SPC AC 220855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Thursday - Central/Northern High Plains

Upslope flow will strengthen across the central/northern High Plains on Thursday as a surface low deepens across the southern High Plains. This, combined with a passing mid-level jet streak and shortwave trough, should result in scattered storm development across the High Plains. The most likely corridor will exist from northern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and far southwestern South Dakota where the stronger mid-level flow/forcing overspreads the unstable warm sector.

Beyond Day 4 there will likely be multiple days with eventual severe weather probabilities given the amplifying trough across the Northwest and moderate mid-level flow overspreading the northern Plains where instability will also be quite strong. However, at this time, there is considerable uncertainty with the timing/location of each of the mid-level shortwave troughs, and for when the core of the jet streak associated with the Northwest CONUS low ejects into the Plains.

Due to these uncertainties, no probabilities have been added beyond Day 4, but eventual probabilities are anticipated in later outlooks.

..Bentley.. 06/22/2026

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Outlook for Saturday, June 27

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220855 SPC AC 220855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Thursday - Central/Northern High Plains

Upslope flow will strengthen across the central/northern High Plains on Thursday as a surface low deepens across the southern High Plains. This, combined with a passing mid-level jet streak and shortwave trough, should result in scattered storm development across the High Plains. The most likely corridor will exist from northern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and far southwestern South Dakota where the stronger mid-level flow/forcing overspreads the unstable warm sector.

Beyond Day 4 there will likely be multiple days with eventual severe weather probabilities given the amplifying trough across the Northwest and moderate mid-level flow overspreading the northern Plains where instability will also be quite strong. However, at this time, there is considerable uncertainty with the timing/location of each of the mid-level shortwave troughs, and for when the core of the jet streak associated with the Northwest CONUS low ejects into the Plains.

Due to these uncertainties, no probabilities have been added beyond Day 4, but eventual probabilities are anticipated in later outlooks.

..Bentley.. 06/22/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, June 28

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220855 SPC AC 220855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Thursday - Central/Northern High Plains

Upslope flow will strengthen across the central/northern High Plains on Thursday as a surface low deepens across the southern High Plains. This, combined with a passing mid-level jet streak and shortwave trough, should result in scattered storm development across the High Plains. The most likely corridor will exist from northern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and far southwestern South Dakota where the stronger mid-level flow/forcing overspreads the unstable warm sector.

Beyond Day 4 there will likely be multiple days with eventual severe weather probabilities given the amplifying trough across the Northwest and moderate mid-level flow overspreading the northern Plains where instability will also be quite strong. However, at this time, there is considerable uncertainty with the timing/location of each of the mid-level shortwave troughs, and for when the core of the jet streak associated with the Northwest CONUS low ejects into the Plains.

Due to these uncertainties, no probabilities have been added beyond Day 4, but eventual probabilities are anticipated in later outlooks.

..Bentley.. 06/22/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, June 29

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220855 SPC AC 220855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Thursday - Central/Northern High Plains

Upslope flow will strengthen across the central/northern High Plains on Thursday as a surface low deepens across the southern High Plains. This, combined with a passing mid-level jet streak and shortwave trough, should result in scattered storm development across the High Plains. The most likely corridor will exist from northern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and far southwestern South Dakota where the stronger mid-level flow/forcing overspreads the unstable warm sector.

Beyond Day 4 there will likely be multiple days with eventual severe weather probabilities given the amplifying trough across the Northwest and moderate mid-level flow overspreading the northern Plains where instability will also be quite strong. However, at this time, there is considerable uncertainty with the timing/location of each of the mid-level shortwave troughs, and for when the core of the jet streak associated with the Northwest CONUS low ejects into the Plains.

Due to these uncertainties, no probabilities have been added beyond Day 4, but eventual probabilities are anticipated in later outlooks.

..Bentley.. 06/22/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Monday, June 22

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Tuesday, June 23

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Wednesday, June 24

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Thursday, June 25

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Friday, June 26

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Saturday, June 27

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Sunday, June 28

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Monday, June 29

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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