Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, November 3
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with potential for isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado will be possible this evening and tonight across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 040037
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0637 PM CST Tue Nov 03 2026
Valid 040100Z - 041200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with potential for isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado will be possible this evening and tonight across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley.
Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley
The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level low in the mid Missouri Valley with a trough extending southward into the eastern part of the southern Plains. Cyclonic mid-level southwesterly flow is located ahead of the trough in the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Within this flow, a broad band of precipitation is ongoing from central Illinois southward to Louisiana. Scattered thunderstorms are occurring on the southern end of the band. Ahead of this band, instability is generally weak except in the lower Mississippi Valley, where surface dewpoints in the 70s F are contributing to moderate instability. Although moderate deep-layer shear is present across much of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley, low-level lapse rates are very poor. In spite of this, strong low-level shear coupled with the instability could be enough for an isolated potential for severe wind gusts and perhaps a tornado. However, any severe threat will remain marginal this evening and tonight.
..Broyles.. 11/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Wednesday, November 4
Outlook Summary
Severe storms are unlikely on Wednesday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 031716
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CST Tue Nov 03 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe storms are unlikely on Wednesday.
Southeast States
A broad upper trough will continue to move slowly eastward across the central/eastern states on Wednesday, with a potent shortwave trough affecting the southern Appalachians. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at 12z Wednesday morning over middle TN and northern AL, with activity persisting and moving eastward into parts of east TN/GA/western Carolinas through the afternoon. Strong flow aloft may result in localized damaging wind gusts, but instability will be very weak. A small 5% wind area was considered for northeast AL/northwest GA, but given the weak CAPE fields will defer to later updates.
..Hart.. 11/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Thursday, November 5
Outlook Summary
Severe storms are unlikely on Thursday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 031838
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CST Tue Nov 03 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe storms are unlikely on Thursday.
Southeast States
A series of shortwave troughs will track eastward across the central and eastern US on Thursday, with a moist and marginally unstable air mass remaining over the southeast states. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will be possible from FL northward into NV/VA. Low-level winds are forecast to weaken through the period over this area, and given the weak CAPE values, no organized severe storms are anticipated.
KS/OK
An upper trough and associated cold pool aloft will track from the central Rockies into parts of KS/OK on Thursday. This will result in a pocket of steep mid level lapse rates and marginal CAPE. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will be possible in this area.
..Hart.. 11/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Friday, November 6
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, November 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, November 7 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, November 8 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, November 9 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, November 10 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030910 SPC AC 030910
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0310 AM CST Tue Nov 03 2026
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
On Fri/D4, a positive-tilt upper trough is forecast to move across the Appalachians, with a 50+ kt midlevel speed max moving into the Mid Atlantic. At least mid 60s F dewpoints will already be in place from GA into the Carolinas and eastern VA ahead of a developing cold front, which will likely lead to weak destabilization. Indications are that scattered rain and thunderstorms may be ongoing early in the day from the Savannah River to the DelMarVa, which will limit further destabilization. Moderate deep-layer shear along with sufficient instability could aid at least a low-end wind potential.
From Sat/D5 through Tue/D8, high pressure is forecast to spread across most of the CONUS, shunting any appreciable moisture and instability offshore.
..Jewell.. 11/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, November 7
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, November 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, November 7 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, November 8 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, November 9 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, November 10 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030910 SPC AC 030910
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0310 AM CST Tue Nov 03 2026
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
On Fri/D4, a positive-tilt upper trough is forecast to move across the Appalachians, with a 50+ kt midlevel speed max moving into the Mid Atlantic. At least mid 60s F dewpoints will already be in place from GA into the Carolinas and eastern VA ahead of a developing cold front, which will likely lead to weak destabilization. Indications are that scattered rain and thunderstorms may be ongoing early in the day from the Savannah River to the DelMarVa, which will limit further destabilization. Moderate deep-layer shear along with sufficient instability could aid at least a low-end wind potential.
From Sat/D5 through Tue/D8, high pressure is forecast to spread across most of the CONUS, shunting any appreciable moisture and instability offshore.
..Jewell.. 11/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, November 8
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, November 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, November 7 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, November 8 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, November 9 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, November 10 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030910 SPC AC 030910
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0310 AM CST Tue Nov 03 2026
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
On Fri/D4, a positive-tilt upper trough is forecast to move across the Appalachians, with a 50+ kt midlevel speed max moving into the Mid Atlantic. At least mid 60s F dewpoints will already be in place from GA into the Carolinas and eastern VA ahead of a developing cold front, which will likely lead to weak destabilization. Indications are that scattered rain and thunderstorms may be ongoing early in the day from the Savannah River to the DelMarVa, which will limit further destabilization. Moderate deep-layer shear along with sufficient instability could aid at least a low-end wind potential.
From Sat/D5 through Tue/D8, high pressure is forecast to spread across most of the CONUS, shunting any appreciable moisture and instability offshore.
..Jewell.. 11/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, November 9
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, November 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, November 7 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, November 8 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, November 9 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, November 10 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030910 SPC AC 030910
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0310 AM CST Tue Nov 03 2026
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
On Fri/D4, a positive-tilt upper trough is forecast to move across the Appalachians, with a 50+ kt midlevel speed max moving into the Mid Atlantic. At least mid 60s F dewpoints will already be in place from GA into the Carolinas and eastern VA ahead of a developing cold front, which will likely lead to weak destabilization. Indications are that scattered rain and thunderstorms may be ongoing early in the day from the Savannah River to the DelMarVa, which will limit further destabilization. Moderate deep-layer shear along with sufficient instability could aid at least a low-end wind potential.
From Sat/D5 through Tue/D8, high pressure is forecast to spread across most of the CONUS, shunting any appreciable moisture and instability offshore.
..Jewell.. 11/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, November 10
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, November 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, November 7 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, November 8 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, November 9 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, November 10 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030910 SPC AC 030910
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0310 AM CST Tue Nov 03 2026
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
On Fri/D4, a positive-tilt upper trough is forecast to move across the Appalachians, with a 50+ kt midlevel speed max moving into the Mid Atlantic. At least mid 60s F dewpoints will already be in place from GA into the Carolinas and eastern VA ahead of a developing cold front, which will likely lead to weak destabilization. Indications are that scattered rain and thunderstorms may be ongoing early in the day from the Savannah River to the DelMarVa, which will limit further destabilization. Moderate deep-layer shear along with sufficient instability could aid at least a low-end wind potential.
From Sat/D5 through Tue/D8, high pressure is forecast to spread across most of the CONUS, shunting any appreciable moisture and instability offshore.
..Jewell.. 11/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, November 3
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Wednesday, November 4
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Thursday, November 5
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Friday, November 6
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, November 7
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, November 8
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, November 9
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, November 10
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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