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Evolving clusters of storms may still pose a risk for producing strong to severe wind gusts across parts of the south central Great Plains tonight.
← back to overviewSPC AC 260043
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026
Valid 260100Z - 261200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN/WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
### SUMMARY
Evolving clusters of storms may still pose a risk for producing strong to severe wind gusts across parts of the south central Great Plains tonight.
01Z Update.. A weak lee surface cyclone centered across the northern Texas Panhandle and remnant surface boundary, reinforced by convective outflow and differential afternoon surface heating, appear likely to provide the primary focus for strongest thunderstorm development into the overnight hours. Forcing for ascent associated with low-level convergence and warm advection to the east of the low has supported an evolving cluster of storms now propagating east-southeastward into western Oklahoma, in the presence of 20 kt westerly deep-layer mean flow. Due to veering of wind fields with height in lower to mid-levels, deep-layer shear is strong, and further intensification still appears possible as the surface cold pool continues to strengthen, and updraft inflow increasingly emanates from a boundary layer over west central Oklahoma characterized by seasonably high moisture content with sizable potential instability.
Upstream, forcing for ascent associated with a weak mid-level perturbation appears to be contributing to increasing thunderstorm development across parts of southwestern Kansas into the Texas Panhandle. This activity may continue to grow upscale this evening, with stronger convective development perhaps becoming focused along outflow trailing the preceding cluster by late this evening, while developing southeastward.
Some risk for a couple of tornadoes continues, but the risk for strong, damaging wind gusts will increasingly become the primary potential severe hazard through mid to late evening.
Otherwise, though it is appearing more uncertain, the remnant baroclinic zone to the east of the surface low could still become a focus for another evolving cluster of storms later tonight, as it remains quasi-stationary or shifts slowly northward across parts of northern Oklahoma/southern Kansas.
..Kerr.. 06/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Isolated severe storms will be possible across the High Plains, southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma, and into the Ohio Valley on Friday. Additional severe storms capable of damaging wind and isolated large hail will also be possible across portions of the Northeast.
← back to overviewSPC AC 251729
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN MISSOURI…SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA…AND NORTHWESTERN KENTUCKY
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe storms will be possible across the High Plains, southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma, and into the Ohio Valley on Friday. Additional severe storms capable of damaging wind and isolated large hail will also be possible across portions of the Northeast.
Synopsis
A mid-level trough across the northern Pacific will deepen and begin to shift inland across the western US on Friday. Height rises will begin as ridging builds in across the central/northern Plains. Between these features, strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the northern Rockies, with resulting lee cyclogenesis occurring across Montana/northern Wyoming. Further east, a shortwave trough will move across the Middle Mississippi Valley/Ohio Valley, with a surface low possibly deepening and moving northeast from Texas into the Middle Mississippi/Ohio Valley. Across the northeastern US, a belt of strengthening mid-level flow will shift through the broader mid-level trough as a surface low shifts into Quebec. A broad cold front will extend from the northeastern surface low back into the Mississippi Valley and Central/Southern Plains.
High Plains
Increasing mid-level ascent and surface low development will support scattered thunderstorm development across the high terrain from eastern Montana south into Wyoming and Colorado. Height rises across the central/northern Plains may inhibit coverage a bit with eastward extent. Weak to moderate instability is progged by the afternoon along with steep low to mid-level lapse rates. Deep layer shear will be strongest across eastern Montana, weakening into Wyoming/Colorado. Given modest shear, potential for a mixed mode of supercells and multi-cell clusters capable of damaging winds and large hail.
Central/southern Plains to the Ohio Valley
A broad area of showers/thunderstorm activity is likely to be ongoing near the start of the period from the Mid Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes region. The focus for afternoon redevelopment across portions of eastern Missouri into southern Illinois/Indiana will likely be where the residual outflow/differential heating boundary intersects the surface cold front by the afternoon. Guidance suggests that though cloud cover may linger, air mass recovery through filtered heating will lead to moderate instability by the afternoon. Recent trends in 06z ECMWF guidance has come into somewhat better agreement with the NAM, which was an outlier in the 00z guidance, suggesting that a surface low may deepen across southern Illinois/Indiana by the afternoon. This would result in much stronger low-level jet response across the region and potential for an increase in tornado potential. Some limiting factors may be the relatively weak mid-level flow and storm mode. Nonetheless, tornado probabilities were increased to 5% to account for some potential for a tornado or two. The main threats will likely be damaging wind and hail with supercells and multi-cell clusters developing near and ahead of the front by the afternoon.
Additional thunderstorm development is likely along the front south and westward into portions of the Southern Plains. Forcing for ascent will be weaker to the west, but sufficient deep layer shear for a few organized storms will be in place near the frontal zone amid moderate to strong instability. These storms will pose potential for damaging wind and hail also.
Northeast
A belt of strong mid-level westerly flow will overspread the Northeast in the wake of morning convection. While it remains uncertain how much destabilization can occur behind the morning activity, it does appear that additional thunderstorms are likely to develop by the afternoon. Given strong deep layer shear profiles amid strengthening upper-level flow, these storms will pose some potential for damaging wind and few instances of large hail.
..Thornton.. 06/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Severe storms are likely across portions of eastern Montana and western North Dakota on Saturday. Severe storms will also be possible from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to Virginia and the Carolinas.
← back to overviewSPC AC 251926
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
### SUMMARY
Severe storms are likely across portions of eastern Montana and western North Dakota on Saturday. Severe storms will also be possible from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to Virginia and the Carolinas.
Synopsis
A mid-level trough across the western US will ejected across the northern Rockies, with strong mid-level flow overspreading the High Plains on D3/Saturday. In response, a surface low across eastern Montana will deepen with strengthening southerly flow into the High Plains. A secondary surface low will move eastward across the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic through the period.
Northern Plains
As southerly flow increases with the deepening surface cyclone across eastern Montana, mid 60s dew points will surge northward into portions of the northern High Plains. Guidance suggests that a narrow corridor of moderate to strong instability will be in place ahead of the surface low across portions of eastern Montana into the western/central Dakotas. Additionally, a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates will push northward through morning/afternoon. Thunderstorm activity is expected first across the high terrain in eastern Montana/northern Wyoming. It is likely that as this moves into the lower elevations, it will cluster and grow upscale into one or more clusters/MCS moving north and east into the Dakotas through the afternoon/evening. These may be further supported by the increasing low-level jet into the evening, with potential to produce damaging wind (perhaps some significant 70+ mph). Higher probabilities may be warranted with additional information/higher confidence in corridors of damaging wind potential.
Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Carolinas and Virginia
Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected to develop along a front extending from the Mid-Atlantic back into the southern Ohio Valley. Flow is expected to be generally weak with modest shear. Guidance suggests that moderate to strong buoyancy will develop across the region amid steep low to mid-level lapse rates. Despite weaker shear profiles, this may support a few organized clusters capable of damaging winds/wet downbursts.
A more favorable corridor for wind will exist from North Carolina into Virginia. Here a shortwave trough will move eastward with a modest increase in mid-level flow and deep layer shear. This may support potential for a more organized line of thunderstorms to shift eastward to the coastline. Forecast soundings indicate steep low-level lapse rates will be in place across this region, further supporting potential for downward momentum transport. A Slight Risk was added across this area to cover this potential.
..Thornton.. 06/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
| Day 4 | Sunday, June 28 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Monday, June 29 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, June 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, July 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, July 2 | predictability too low |
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250809 SPC AC 250809
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Sun - Northern Plains
A strong mid-level jet streak is expected to round the base of the western CONUS trough on Sunday and emerge across the northern Plains. As this occurs, the lee cyclone across eastern Colorado will deepen further and move northward into the northern Plains by 12Z Monday. Continued northward moisture transport will result in strong to very strong instability ahead of the surface low across the northern Plains. Forecast soundings show a very favorable environment and an uncapped airmass by evening. Forecast specifics remain nebulous as individual shortwave troughs will impact the timing and coverage of storms, but severe storms are possible at some point Sunday afternoon to Sunday night across eastern North Dakota and into northwest Minnesota.
D5/Mon - Upper Midwest
The primary shortwave trough and associated mid-level jet streak is forecast to shift northeastward across the northern Plains and toward the Upper Midwest on Monday. This will occur atop a very unstable airmass across a broad area of the Upper Midwest. Severe storms are possible, but the exact magnitude and extent of the threat will become more clear once individual shortwave troughs associated with this upper trough become better sampled.
Beyond Day 5, the upper-level pattern becomes a bit more uncertain. Overall, a general pattern with a trough persisting over the Northwest or northern Rockies and a ridge over the Plains or Midwest seems most likely. However, the differences in amplitude and location of these features limit predictability. Within this broader pattern, severe weather will be most likely from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains and also potentially on the eastern periphery of the upper ridge across the Northeast. At this time, predictability is too low to add any probability areas.
..Bentley.. 06/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
| Day 4 | Sunday, June 28 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Monday, June 29 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, June 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, July 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, July 2 | predictability too low |
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250809 SPC AC 250809
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Sun - Northern Plains
A strong mid-level jet streak is expected to round the base of the western CONUS trough on Sunday and emerge across the northern Plains. As this occurs, the lee cyclone across eastern Colorado will deepen further and move northward into the northern Plains by 12Z Monday. Continued northward moisture transport will result in strong to very strong instability ahead of the surface low across the northern Plains. Forecast soundings show a very favorable environment and an uncapped airmass by evening. Forecast specifics remain nebulous as individual shortwave troughs will impact the timing and coverage of storms, but severe storms are possible at some point Sunday afternoon to Sunday night across eastern North Dakota and into northwest Minnesota.
D5/Mon - Upper Midwest
The primary shortwave trough and associated mid-level jet streak is forecast to shift northeastward across the northern Plains and toward the Upper Midwest on Monday. This will occur atop a very unstable airmass across a broad area of the Upper Midwest. Severe storms are possible, but the exact magnitude and extent of the threat will become more clear once individual shortwave troughs associated with this upper trough become better sampled.
Beyond Day 5, the upper-level pattern becomes a bit more uncertain. Overall, a general pattern with a trough persisting over the Northwest or northern Rockies and a ridge over the Plains or Midwest seems most likely. However, the differences in amplitude and location of these features limit predictability. Within this broader pattern, severe weather will be most likely from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains and also potentially on the eastern periphery of the upper ridge across the Northeast. At this time, predictability is too low to add any probability areas.
..Bentley.. 06/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
| Day 4 | Sunday, June 28 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Monday, June 29 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, June 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, July 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, July 2 | predictability too low |
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250809 SPC AC 250809
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Sun - Northern Plains
A strong mid-level jet streak is expected to round the base of the western CONUS trough on Sunday and emerge across the northern Plains. As this occurs, the lee cyclone across eastern Colorado will deepen further and move northward into the northern Plains by 12Z Monday. Continued northward moisture transport will result in strong to very strong instability ahead of the surface low across the northern Plains. Forecast soundings show a very favorable environment and an uncapped airmass by evening. Forecast specifics remain nebulous as individual shortwave troughs will impact the timing and coverage of storms, but severe storms are possible at some point Sunday afternoon to Sunday night across eastern North Dakota and into northwest Minnesota.
D5/Mon - Upper Midwest
The primary shortwave trough and associated mid-level jet streak is forecast to shift northeastward across the northern Plains and toward the Upper Midwest on Monday. This will occur atop a very unstable airmass across a broad area of the Upper Midwest. Severe storms are possible, but the exact magnitude and extent of the threat will become more clear once individual shortwave troughs associated with this upper trough become better sampled.
Beyond Day 5, the upper-level pattern becomes a bit more uncertain. Overall, a general pattern with a trough persisting over the Northwest or northern Rockies and a ridge over the Plains or Midwest seems most likely. However, the differences in amplitude and location of these features limit predictability. Within this broader pattern, severe weather will be most likely from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains and also potentially on the eastern periphery of the upper ridge across the Northeast. At this time, predictability is too low to add any probability areas.
..Bentley.. 06/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
| Day 4 | Sunday, June 28 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Monday, June 29 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, June 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, July 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, July 2 | predictability too low |
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250809 SPC AC 250809
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Sun - Northern Plains
A strong mid-level jet streak is expected to round the base of the western CONUS trough on Sunday and emerge across the northern Plains. As this occurs, the lee cyclone across eastern Colorado will deepen further and move northward into the northern Plains by 12Z Monday. Continued northward moisture transport will result in strong to very strong instability ahead of the surface low across the northern Plains. Forecast soundings show a very favorable environment and an uncapped airmass by evening. Forecast specifics remain nebulous as individual shortwave troughs will impact the timing and coverage of storms, but severe storms are possible at some point Sunday afternoon to Sunday night across eastern North Dakota and into northwest Minnesota.
D5/Mon - Upper Midwest
The primary shortwave trough and associated mid-level jet streak is forecast to shift northeastward across the northern Plains and toward the Upper Midwest on Monday. This will occur atop a very unstable airmass across a broad area of the Upper Midwest. Severe storms are possible, but the exact magnitude and extent of the threat will become more clear once individual shortwave troughs associated with this upper trough become better sampled.
Beyond Day 5, the upper-level pattern becomes a bit more uncertain. Overall, a general pattern with a trough persisting over the Northwest or northern Rockies and a ridge over the Plains or Midwest seems most likely. However, the differences in amplitude and location of these features limit predictability. Within this broader pattern, severe weather will be most likely from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains and also potentially on the eastern periphery of the upper ridge across the Northeast. At this time, predictability is too low to add any probability areas.
..Bentley.. 06/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
| Day 4 | Sunday, June 28 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Monday, June 29 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, June 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, July 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, July 2 | predictability too low |
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250809 SPC AC 250809
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Sun - Northern Plains
A strong mid-level jet streak is expected to round the base of the western CONUS trough on Sunday and emerge across the northern Plains. As this occurs, the lee cyclone across eastern Colorado will deepen further and move northward into the northern Plains by 12Z Monday. Continued northward moisture transport will result in strong to very strong instability ahead of the surface low across the northern Plains. Forecast soundings show a very favorable environment and an uncapped airmass by evening. Forecast specifics remain nebulous as individual shortwave troughs will impact the timing and coverage of storms, but severe storms are possible at some point Sunday afternoon to Sunday night across eastern North Dakota and into northwest Minnesota.
D5/Mon - Upper Midwest
The primary shortwave trough and associated mid-level jet streak is forecast to shift northeastward across the northern Plains and toward the Upper Midwest on Monday. This will occur atop a very unstable airmass across a broad area of the Upper Midwest. Severe storms are possible, but the exact magnitude and extent of the threat will become more clear once individual shortwave troughs associated with this upper trough become better sampled.
Beyond Day 5, the upper-level pattern becomes a bit more uncertain. Overall, a general pattern with a trough persisting over the Northwest or northern Rockies and a ridge over the Plains or Midwest seems most likely. However, the differences in amplitude and location of these features limit predictability. Within this broader pattern, severe weather will be most likely from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains and also potentially on the eastern periphery of the upper ridge across the Northeast. At this time, predictability is too low to add any probability areas.
..Bentley.. 06/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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