Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, September 14
Outlook Summary
Strong to severe storms remain possible tonight across parts of the central Plains and Midwest, with the greatest remaining threat expected from western into central Iowa.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 150056
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
Valid 150100Z - 151200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL IA AND FAR NORTHWEST MO
### SUMMARY
Strong to severe storms remain possible tonight across parts of the central Plains and Midwest, with the greatest remaining threat expected from western into central Iowa.
Western/northern KS into southeastern NE/IA/northwest MO
A broken band of thunderstorms is ongoing this evening from western KS into eastern NE and western IA. The western portion of this band may pose a localized severe-wind threat through dusk across western/northern KS, in the presence of a remnant well-mixed boundary layer and moderate deep-layer flow.
Farther east, a narrow corridor of rich low-level moisture and moderate buoyancy resides from northeast KS/northwest MO into far southeast NE and southwest IA. Low-level shear/SRH remains locally enhanced across in the vicinity of the effective warm front, conditionally supporting tornadic supercell potential. However, ongoing convection has already become outflow dominant, and residual downstream MLCINH may continue to limit surface-based supercell potential this evening. Even if tornado potential does not evolve, the environment otherwise remains favorable for damaging winds and isolated hail as storms move eastward through the evening.
Convection will become increasingly elevated with eastward extent late tonight, though the strongest cells/clusters may remain capable of producing isolated hail and localized strong/damaging gusts into the early morning hours. Other bands or clusters of elevated storms will also be possible in the wake of earlier convection across the central Plains, with moderate elevated buoyancy potentially supporting a brief/localized severe threat overnight.
..Dean.. 09/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Tuesday, September 15
Outlook Summary
Scattered strong thunderstorms may occur from the Great Lakes southwestward through the lower Missouri Valley Tuesday afternoon and evening, with at least isolated damaging wind gusts possible.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 141714
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM KANSAS INTO WESTERN OHIO
### SUMMARY
Scattered strong thunderstorms may occur from the Great Lakes southwestward through the lower Missouri Valley Tuesday afternoon and evening, with at least isolated damaging wind gusts possible.
Discussion
A potent upper trough will eject out of the Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes on Tuesday, with 20-30 kt midlevel winds trailing southwestward toward the Central Plains. High pressure will build into the Plains behind a cold front, which will extend roughly from Lower MI to central MO to the KS/OK border by 21Z.
Mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will be common ahead of the cold front, with areas of 70s F dewpoints from the Lower MO Valley into IL/IN. Strong heating will occur ahead of this boundary, contributing to 2000+ J/kg MUCAPE, though midlevel lapse rates will be poor.
Early day thunderstorms may be ongoing from northern KS into Lower MI, with weakening expected as the upper trough lifts out. However, redevelopment will be likely along the aggregate front/outflow as the air mass destabilizes. Storms are expected to be primarily short-lived as shear will be weak. However, a few clusters may develop near the front, with some eastward propagation and wind gust potential through early evening.
..Jewell.. 09/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Wednesday, September 16
Outlook Summary
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. on Wednesday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 141916
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. on Wednesday.
Discussion
Stronger winds aloft will extend from the Northern Plains into the Upper Great Lakes on Wednesday as a large upper ridge expands across much of the central to southeastern states. A surface high will also exist over the Upper MS Valley and Great Lakes which will keep the more favorable instability well south of the stronger flow/shear. While a secondary shortwave trough will swing across central Canada and into the northern Plains late, instability should be minimal that far north.
The greatest chance of thunderstorms will be near a weak/stalled front from the Central Plains eastward across the Midwest and OH Valley, where dewpoints of 65-70 F will be common. Early day thunderstorms across this same zone will likely dissipate during the day, with scattered redevelopment near peak heating. Given the generally poor lapse rates aloft and weak shear, the severe storm threat appears low.
..Jewell.. 09/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Thursday, September 17
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, September 17 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, September 18 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, September 19 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, September 20 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, September 21 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140854 SPC AC 140854
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range model output continues to indicate that initially prominent Southeastern mid-level ridging will gradually become suppressed late this week into next weekend. However, short wave developments within the westerlies become more unclear by next weekend into early next week. In general, it appears that a modest to weak split flow will evolve across much of North America, as larger positive mid-level height anomalies tend to develop across interior Canada.
It is possible that diurnal destabilization will remain sufficient to support areas of stronger daily thunderstorm development across the U.S., supported by forcing for ascent associated with these evolving perturbations. However, any associated severe weather seems unlikely to become particularly well organized and probably will remain rather isolated and/or marginal in nature.
..Kerr.. 09/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, September 18
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, September 17 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, September 18 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, September 19 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, September 20 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, September 21 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140854 SPC AC 140854
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range model output continues to indicate that initially prominent Southeastern mid-level ridging will gradually become suppressed late this week into next weekend. However, short wave developments within the westerlies become more unclear by next weekend into early next week. In general, it appears that a modest to weak split flow will evolve across much of North America, as larger positive mid-level height anomalies tend to develop across interior Canada.
It is possible that diurnal destabilization will remain sufficient to support areas of stronger daily thunderstorm development across the U.S., supported by forcing for ascent associated with these evolving perturbations. However, any associated severe weather seems unlikely to become particularly well organized and probably will remain rather isolated and/or marginal in nature.
..Kerr.. 09/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, September 19
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, September 17 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, September 18 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, September 19 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, September 20 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, September 21 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140854 SPC AC 140854
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range model output continues to indicate that initially prominent Southeastern mid-level ridging will gradually become suppressed late this week into next weekend. However, short wave developments within the westerlies become more unclear by next weekend into early next week. In general, it appears that a modest to weak split flow will evolve across much of North America, as larger positive mid-level height anomalies tend to develop across interior Canada.
It is possible that diurnal destabilization will remain sufficient to support areas of stronger daily thunderstorm development across the U.S., supported by forcing for ascent associated with these evolving perturbations. However, any associated severe weather seems unlikely to become particularly well organized and probably will remain rather isolated and/or marginal in nature.
..Kerr.. 09/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, September 20
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, September 17 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, September 18 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, September 19 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, September 20 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, September 21 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140854 SPC AC 140854
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range model output continues to indicate that initially prominent Southeastern mid-level ridging will gradually become suppressed late this week into next weekend. However, short wave developments within the westerlies become more unclear by next weekend into early next week. In general, it appears that a modest to weak split flow will evolve across much of North America, as larger positive mid-level height anomalies tend to develop across interior Canada.
It is possible that diurnal destabilization will remain sufficient to support areas of stronger daily thunderstorm development across the U.S., supported by forcing for ascent associated with these evolving perturbations. However, any associated severe weather seems unlikely to become particularly well organized and probably will remain rather isolated and/or marginal in nature.
..Kerr.. 09/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, September 21
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, September 17 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, September 18 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, September 19 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, September 20 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, September 21 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140854 SPC AC 140854
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range model output continues to indicate that initially prominent Southeastern mid-level ridging will gradually become suppressed late this week into next weekend. However, short wave developments within the westerlies become more unclear by next weekend into early next week. In general, it appears that a modest to weak split flow will evolve across much of North America, as larger positive mid-level height anomalies tend to develop across interior Canada.
It is possible that diurnal destabilization will remain sufficient to support areas of stronger daily thunderstorm development across the U.S., supported by forcing for ascent associated with these evolving perturbations. However, any associated severe weather seems unlikely to become particularly well organized and probably will remain rather isolated and/or marginal in nature.
..Kerr.. 09/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, September 14
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Tuesday, September 15
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Wednesday, September 16
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Thursday, September 17
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, September 18
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, September 19
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, September 20
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, September 21
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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