Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, October 27
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible later today over a small part of southeast New Mexico and far west Texas.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 271628
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
Valid 271630Z - 281200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER A SMALL PART OF SOUTHEAST NM AND FAR WEST TX
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible later today over a small part of southeast New Mexico and far west Texas.
Southeast NM/Far West TX
Water-vapor imagery late this morning indicates broad cyclonic flow over the western half of the Lower 48 states, with west-southwesterly flow across the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A lee trough over the High Plains will yield favorable low-level trajectories for maintaining moisture in Far West TX and southeast NM. The 12 UTC Midland, TX observed sounding showed moderately steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7 deg C/km) with shear primarily relegated in the 500 to 200 mb layer. As the boundary layer heats and destabilizes through mid afternoon, moderate buoyancy will likely develop and lead to isolated thunderstorms. Forecast soundings imply a couple of supercells potentially capable of large hail (1 to 1.75 inches in diameter) will be possible.
..Smith/Halbert.. 10/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Wednesday, October 28
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over the Upper Mississippi Valley on Wednesday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 271730
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over the Upper Mississippi Valley on Wednesday.
Synopsis
Broad mid-level troughing will encompass the upper air pattern over much of the CONUS on Wednesday, with a pronounced embedded impulse poised to traverse the northern Plains and impinge on the Upper MS Valley by late afternoon into early evening. The approach of this mid-level impulse will support rapid surface troughing over the Upper MS Valley, with some low-level moisture return expected. While buoyancy will be relatively weak, strong tropospheric flow accompanying the passing mid-level and surface troughs, along with adequate deep-layer ascent, will promote thunderstorm development over the Upper MS Valley by evening. There is some potential (albeit conditional) that a couple of these thunderstorms may become severe.
Upper MS Valley
As the surface trough intensifies through the day, a narrow ribbon of 60+ F surface dewpoints will advect northward ahead of the trough, beneath 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates, contributing to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Furthermore, the strengthening of the surface trough will also encourage the development of a 40+ kt south-southwesterly low-level jet just before sunset, when buoyancy should be relatively maximized. Considerable veering and strengthening flow fields with height will support enlarged and curved low-level hodographs, especially closer to a warm front along the MN/WI border.
The vertical shear profile and expected MLCAPE magnitudes would certainly support supercells capable of producing all severe hazards. However, potential cloud cover may inhibit robust boundary-layer heating, and some MLCINH may linger just above the boundary layer as well. Therefore, any surface-based severe potential that can materialize will be highly dependent on stronger surface heating and subsequent CIN erosion. Still, at least some elevated buoyancy may be realized in the absence of stronger surface heating, so thunderstorms forced along the lee trough/cold front may still be accompanied by a hail threat.
..Squitieri.. 10/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Thursday, October 29
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 271911
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.
Synopsis
An upper ridge will build over the CONUS east of the Rockies while a mid-level trough amplifies over the Pacific Northwest on Thursday. Surface high pressure and accompanying subsidence will limit thunderstorm development over most places east of the MS River and over the Intermountain West. However, weak surface troughing and subsequent low-level moisture return will promote some thunderstorm potential over the central and southern Plains within a warm-air advection regime. A couple of thunderstorms are also possible over portions of the FL Peninsula given the presence of a warm, moist boundary layer. Lastly, a couple of lightning flashes are possible along the shoreline of the Pacific Northwest late Thursday night into early Friday morning. However, buoyancy appears too scant to support enough lightning coverage for the introduction of a General Risk area.
..Squitieri.. 10/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Friday, October 30
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, October 30 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, November 1 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, November 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, November 3 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270743 SPC AC 270743
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe potential appears low through Day 6/Sunday. Periods of thunderstorms are possible from the southern/central Plains to the Lower OH and TN Valleys during this time as a weak midlevel shortwave trough slowly migrates east within a modest deep-layer flow regime.
Medium-range forecast guidance suggests a deepening upper cyclone and attendant trough will emerge from the western U.S. into the Plains and Mid/Lower MS Valley vicinity Days 7-8/Monday-Tuesday. Increasing southerly low-level flow via deepening surface cyclogenesis will foster northward transport of rich Gulf moisture ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. Despite increasing moisture, current forecast guidance maintains only modest instability due to weak lapse rates and possible inhibition around 850-700 mb. This general pattern could support severe thunderstorms depending on the evolution of the warm sector. However, uncertainty is high due to large spread among forecast guidance in the placement and timing of the upper trough. Trends will be monitored for increasing severe potential across the south-central U.S. early next week.
..Leitman.. 10/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, October 31
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, October 30 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, November 1 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, November 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, November 3 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270743 SPC AC 270743
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe potential appears low through Day 6/Sunday. Periods of thunderstorms are possible from the southern/central Plains to the Lower OH and TN Valleys during this time as a weak midlevel shortwave trough slowly migrates east within a modest deep-layer flow regime.
Medium-range forecast guidance suggests a deepening upper cyclone and attendant trough will emerge from the western U.S. into the Plains and Mid/Lower MS Valley vicinity Days 7-8/Monday-Tuesday. Increasing southerly low-level flow via deepening surface cyclogenesis will foster northward transport of rich Gulf moisture ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. Despite increasing moisture, current forecast guidance maintains only modest instability due to weak lapse rates and possible inhibition around 850-700 mb. This general pattern could support severe thunderstorms depending on the evolution of the warm sector. However, uncertainty is high due to large spread among forecast guidance in the placement and timing of the upper trough. Trends will be monitored for increasing severe potential across the south-central U.S. early next week.
..Leitman.. 10/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, November 1
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, October 30 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, November 1 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, November 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, November 3 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270743 SPC AC 270743
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe potential appears low through Day 6/Sunday. Periods of thunderstorms are possible from the southern/central Plains to the Lower OH and TN Valleys during this time as a weak midlevel shortwave trough slowly migrates east within a modest deep-layer flow regime.
Medium-range forecast guidance suggests a deepening upper cyclone and attendant trough will emerge from the western U.S. into the Plains and Mid/Lower MS Valley vicinity Days 7-8/Monday-Tuesday. Increasing southerly low-level flow via deepening surface cyclogenesis will foster northward transport of rich Gulf moisture ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. Despite increasing moisture, current forecast guidance maintains only modest instability due to weak lapse rates and possible inhibition around 850-700 mb. This general pattern could support severe thunderstorms depending on the evolution of the warm sector. However, uncertainty is high due to large spread among forecast guidance in the placement and timing of the upper trough. Trends will be monitored for increasing severe potential across the south-central U.S. early next week.
..Leitman.. 10/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, November 2
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, October 30 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, November 1 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, November 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, November 3 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270743 SPC AC 270743
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe potential appears low through Day 6/Sunday. Periods of thunderstorms are possible from the southern/central Plains to the Lower OH and TN Valleys during this time as a weak midlevel shortwave trough slowly migrates east within a modest deep-layer flow regime.
Medium-range forecast guidance suggests a deepening upper cyclone and attendant trough will emerge from the western U.S. into the Plains and Mid/Lower MS Valley vicinity Days 7-8/Monday-Tuesday. Increasing southerly low-level flow via deepening surface cyclogenesis will foster northward transport of rich Gulf moisture ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. Despite increasing moisture, current forecast guidance maintains only modest instability due to weak lapse rates and possible inhibition around 850-700 mb. This general pattern could support severe thunderstorms depending on the evolution of the warm sector. However, uncertainty is high due to large spread among forecast guidance in the placement and timing of the upper trough. Trends will be monitored for increasing severe potential across the south-central U.S. early next week.
..Leitman.. 10/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, November 3
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, October 30 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, November 1 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, November 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, November 3 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270743 SPC AC 270743
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe potential appears low through Day 6/Sunday. Periods of thunderstorms are possible from the southern/central Plains to the Lower OH and TN Valleys during this time as a weak midlevel shortwave trough slowly migrates east within a modest deep-layer flow regime.
Medium-range forecast guidance suggests a deepening upper cyclone and attendant trough will emerge from the western U.S. into the Plains and Mid/Lower MS Valley vicinity Days 7-8/Monday-Tuesday. Increasing southerly low-level flow via deepening surface cyclogenesis will foster northward transport of rich Gulf moisture ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. Despite increasing moisture, current forecast guidance maintains only modest instability due to weak lapse rates and possible inhibition around 850-700 mb. This general pattern could support severe thunderstorms depending on the evolution of the warm sector. However, uncertainty is high due to large spread among forecast guidance in the placement and timing of the upper trough. Trends will be monitored for increasing severe potential across the south-central U.S. early next week.
..Leitman.. 10/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, October 27
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: low
- Wednesday, October 28
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Thursday, October 29
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Friday, October 30
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, October 31
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, November 1
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, November 2
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, November 3
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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