Severe Weather Outlook
Hayley here
- Do you like
lofi music
whatever music Hayley put on
and terrifyingly loud computer voices? Then stop by the 24/7 ish severe weather live stream!
* stats delayed and were probably not accurate to begin with
National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, March 16
Outlook Summary
Multiple rounds of severe storms through this evening will yield potential for scattered to widespread damaging winds and a few strong tornadoes from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic States.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 10%
wind 60%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 161628
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
Valid 161630Z - 171200Z
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA…NORTH CAROLINA…VIRGINIA…WASHINGTON D.C. AND MARYLAND
### SUMMARY
Multiple rounds of severe storms through this evening will yield potential for scattered to widespread damaging winds and a few strong tornadoes from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic States.
Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast
Large-scale outflow from ongoing broken linear bands along with a separate swath of convection with the low-level warm conveyor have greatly hampered the amplitude of diurnal destabilization across the Carolinas to the DE Valley. Primary severe threat should remain with the pre-frontal linear bands as they spread east-northeast this afternoon. Some intensification may yet occur across eastern SC/southern NC within pockets of low 70s surface temperatures. See MCDs 272-273 for additional storm-term discussion.
Farther north, a pre-frontal low-topped convective line is evolving across central PA. This should be the primary driver of afternoon severe potential northeastward into parts of NY as mid 50s to low 60s surface dew points remain prevalent just ahead of this line. Within a deeply meridional wind profile, damaging winds and embedded tornadoes will be the main hazards. This activity should remain spatially confined by a lack of downstream boundary-layer destabilization over eastern NY into New England.
In the wake of this leading activity, a second round of low-topped convection will likely reform east of the Blue Ridge into the Piedmont towards late afternoon/early evening. Prior overturning and persistent cloud coverage should mitigate appreciable boundary-layer destabilization. However, robust large-scale ascent and intensifying lower-level winds will accompany the ejection of a 100+ kt 500-mb jetlet within the basal shortwave trough. This should yield a renewed threat for damaging winds accompanying the fast-moving line. Even with meager buoyancy, another round of sporadic severe gusts should occur from NC/VA to the Chesapeake Bay/DE Valley vicinity through this evening.
GA/FL
Moderate buoyancy characterized by MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg will persist through the afternoon ahead of southwest/northeast-oriented convection. With large-scale ascent, outside of low-level convergence, becoming more focused to the north of this region, there is uncertainty on how far south an organized line will persist in the FL Peninsula. Primary severe threat should remain through mid-afternoon, with a generalized waning in southern extent this evening.
..Grams/Lyons.. 03/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Tuesday, March 17
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorm potential appears negligible on Tuesday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 161729
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorm potential appears negligible on Tuesday.
Discussion
With the trailing portion of a cold front expected to have exited the Eastern Seaboard by 12Z Tuesday, any lingering deep convection near the front should be relegated to the FL Straits during the mid to late morning. An expansive surface anticyclone, initially centered over far southeast TX/Lower Sabine Valley vicinity, will maintain a pervasive continental air mass across the northern Gulf. Conditions will be too hostile for lightning-producing convection across the CONUS through the period.
..Grams.. 03/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Wednesday, March 18
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are not forecast for Wednesday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 160548
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not forecast for Wednesday.
Synopsis
On Wednesday, an upper ridge will build over the Southwest, with a large-scale trough across over the East. High pressure over the Southeast will maintain stable conditions, with generally offshore winds across the Gulf. Minimal instability may be present from the Bahamas into the FL Straits near a stalled front, with convective showers mainly offshore. Otherwise, lack of instability will preclude thunderstorms chances across the CONUS.
..Jewell.. 03/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Thursday, March 19
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, March 19 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, March 20 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, March 21 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, March 22 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, March 23 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160646 SPC AC 160646
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
A northwest flow regime will persist across the Plains through Saturday/D6 as an upper high holds over the southwestern states. The ridge is expected to break down late D6 through the remainder of the period into Monday/D8, as a strong wave moves southeastward into the Great Lakes, and a weaker wave potentially moves into the Great Basin/Four Corners states on Sunday/D7. This overall pattern will maintain relatively stable conditions over most of the CONUS, with high pressure over the southeastern states including the Gulf of America. Further, as the stronger wave potentially moves across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast, a reinforcing cold front is likely to plunge south over much of the central and eastern states into the D7/D8 time frame. While limited moisture may precede this cold front, overall potential for destabilization appears to be minimal.
..Jewell.. 03/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, March 20
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, March 19 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, March 20 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, March 21 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, March 22 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, March 23 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160646 SPC AC 160646
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
A northwest flow regime will persist across the Plains through Saturday/D6 as an upper high holds over the southwestern states. The ridge is expected to break down late D6 through the remainder of the period into Monday/D8, as a strong wave moves southeastward into the Great Lakes, and a weaker wave potentially moves into the Great Basin/Four Corners states on Sunday/D7. This overall pattern will maintain relatively stable conditions over most of the CONUS, with high pressure over the southeastern states including the Gulf of America. Further, as the stronger wave potentially moves across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast, a reinforcing cold front is likely to plunge south over much of the central and eastern states into the D7/D8 time frame. While limited moisture may precede this cold front, overall potential for destabilization appears to be minimal.
..Jewell.. 03/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, March 21
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, March 19 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, March 20 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, March 21 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, March 22 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, March 23 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160646 SPC AC 160646
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
A northwest flow regime will persist across the Plains through Saturday/D6 as an upper high holds over the southwestern states. The ridge is expected to break down late D6 through the remainder of the period into Monday/D8, as a strong wave moves southeastward into the Great Lakes, and a weaker wave potentially moves into the Great Basin/Four Corners states on Sunday/D7. This overall pattern will maintain relatively stable conditions over most of the CONUS, with high pressure over the southeastern states including the Gulf of America. Further, as the stronger wave potentially moves across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast, a reinforcing cold front is likely to plunge south over much of the central and eastern states into the D7/D8 time frame. While limited moisture may precede this cold front, overall potential for destabilization appears to be minimal.
..Jewell.. 03/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, March 22
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, March 19 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, March 20 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, March 21 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, March 22 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, March 23 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160646 SPC AC 160646
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
A northwest flow regime will persist across the Plains through Saturday/D6 as an upper high holds over the southwestern states. The ridge is expected to break down late D6 through the remainder of the period into Monday/D8, as a strong wave moves southeastward into the Great Lakes, and a weaker wave potentially moves into the Great Basin/Four Corners states on Sunday/D7. This overall pattern will maintain relatively stable conditions over most of the CONUS, with high pressure over the southeastern states including the Gulf of America. Further, as the stronger wave potentially moves across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast, a reinforcing cold front is likely to plunge south over much of the central and eastern states into the D7/D8 time frame. While limited moisture may precede this cold front, overall potential for destabilization appears to be minimal.
..Jewell.. 03/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, March 23
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, March 19 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, March 20 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, March 21 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, March 22 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, March 23 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160646 SPC AC 160646
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
A northwest flow regime will persist across the Plains through Saturday/D6 as an upper high holds over the southwestern states. The ridge is expected to break down late D6 through the remainder of the period into Monday/D8, as a strong wave moves southeastward into the Great Lakes, and a weaker wave potentially moves into the Great Basin/Four Corners states on Sunday/D7. This overall pattern will maintain relatively stable conditions over most of the CONUS, with high pressure over the southeastern states including the Gulf of America. Further, as the stronger wave potentially moves across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast, a reinforcing cold front is likely to plunge south over much of the central and eastern states into the D7/D8 time frame. While limited moisture may precede this cold front, overall potential for destabilization appears to be minimal.
..Jewell.. 03/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, March 16
- TORNADO: 10%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 60%
- Tuesday, March 17
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Wednesday, March 18
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Thursday, March 19
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, March 20
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, March 21
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, March 22
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, March 23
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Your Severe Outlook
Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.
Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.
Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.
About Severe Weather Outlook . com
SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.
- tornado hq - live severe weather warnings
- cyclocane - hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones
- tornado solitaire - play cards while you monitor the US severe weather threat
- tertremo - live view of earthquakes around the world
- earthquake solitaire - get live earthquake updates as you play your favorite card game