Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, May 6
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys/southern Appalachians. Supercells capable of all hazards will be possible across portions of central/southern Mississippi and central Alabama before a shift to a more of a damaging wind risk into the late evening/overnight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 10%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 061948
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Wed May 06 2026
Valid 062000Z - 071200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys/southern Appalachians. Supercells capable of all hazards will be possible across portions of central/southern Mississippi and central Alabama before a shift to a more of a damaging wind risk into the late evening/overnight.
20z Update
The primary forecast update was a reduction in severe probabilities across portions of central/eastern TX and across the Mid-South in the wake of the surface cold front. Latest regional radar mosaic shows the early stages of deepening convection across far eastern TX into central LA as low-level moisture continues to deepen (per 18z RAOBs). This activity is expected to gradually intensify through late afternoon amid filtered diurnal heating that should continue to erode lingering MLCIN. Strong deep-layer wind shear (sampled in regional VWPs and 18 UTC RAOBs) should maintain the severe threat through the evening hours. Confidence severe thunderstorms remains highest across southern MS where convection originating in central LA will likely track and intensify within a favorable environment (where STP values will increase to 2-3 by late afternoon) prior to undercutting by the cold front later this evening.
..Moore.. 05/06/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026/
TX/Lower MS Valley into the Southeast
A corridor of strong mid to high-level west-southwesterly flow extends from TX into the central and southern Appalachians to the southeast of a larger-scale positively tilted trough with embedded shortwaves. Morning surface mesoanalysis depicted a cold front slowly moving southward across south-central TX through northern MS and into the southern Appalachians. South of the boundary, a quasi-zonal flow regime with little mid-level height change is expected through tonight. A moist airmass maintained by southerly flow will yield surface dewpoints ranging from the mid-upper 60s to lower to mid 70s deg F south of the front. Despite extensive cloud cover owing to the moist boundary layer (reference the 16 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratios from the 12 UTC Lake Charles and Slidell, LA raobs), heating and persistent weak low-level warm advection will combine to erode convective inhibition and yield scattered storms developing later this afternoon. Moderately steep mid-level lapse rates and seasonably rich moisture/PW will support strong buoyancy ahead of the front (i.e. 2500 J/kg of MLCAPE) over LA/MS. Gradual intensification of storms in the moist environment will likely result in several strong supercells eventually developing late this afternoon through the evening. Large to very large hail, damaging gusts, and tornadoes will be possible with the stronger storms. The tornado risk is forecast to peak late this afternoon through the evening as southwesterly 850-mb flow strengthens from 25 kt to 35-40 kt. Environmental conditions support the potential for a strong tornado during this timeframe. Whether or not storms can realize this increasing low-level shear will largely be a function of storm mode. Storms should eventually begin to cluster and to grow upscale, with an increasing damaging wind threat continuing downstream into Alabama and Georgia.
The front will continue slowly southward, and the very moist environment could support additional warm sector storms throughout much of the evening and overnight, supporting a continued risk for all severe hazards, perhaps extending into northern GA and Upstate SC late tonight.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Thursday, May 7
Outlook Summary
A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday across portions of the central Gulf coast into South Carolina. Isolated large hail is possible over a small part of Texas near the middle Rio Grand Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 061713
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 PM CDT Wed May 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST…AND IN TEXAS NEAR THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
### SUMMARY
A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday across portions of the central Gulf coast into South Carolina. Isolated large hail is possible over a small part of Texas near the middle Rio Grand Valley.
Synopsis
An upper trough will move from the Great Lakes into the Northeast on Thursday, with leading speed max aloft sweeping across the TN Valley and toward the Mid Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front will push south across the Carolinas, with western portions of the front stalling near the central Gulf Coast.
To the west, strong southwest winds aloft will persist from northern Mexico into TX as an upper low drifts east, with high pressure at the surface but elevated instability in place.
Southeast
Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near the cold front Thursday morning, from southeast LA across GA and into the Carolinas. A few storms could still be severe from southeast AL into central GA as the previous nights activity persists. Strong wind gusts or even a brief tornado cannot be ruled out at that time as SRH will be maximized above 200 m2/s2. Given the veering low-level winds with time and associated midlevel drying/subsidence later in the day, the severe risk may diminish by afternoon.
Middle Rio Grande Vicinity
While lift will be weak, it appears enough lift via warm advection above the stable surface layer may support isolated storm development early on Thursday. Winds around 850 mb will be out of the southeast at 10-15 kt, with indications by some models of hail potential. Uncertainty exists regarding degree of elevated instability, but effective shear in the cloud-bearing layer conditionally favor hail.
..Jewell.. 05/06/2026
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Friday, May 8
Outlook Summary
A few severe storms are possible on Friday from parts of Oklahoma into Missouri. Scattered storms are also likely over much of Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 061931
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Wed May 06 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF MISSOURI INTO OKLAHOMA
### SUMMARY
A few severe storms are possible on Friday from parts of Oklahoma into Missouri. Scattered storms are also likely over much of Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley.
Synopsis
A northwest flow regime will exist from the Plains into the MS Valley on Friday as an embedded shortwave moves across the central Plains and rapidly moves toward the TN Valley into Saturday morning. Meanwhile, a compact upper low is forecast to move across the Rio Grande Valley and into TX, providing cool temperatures aloft.
At the surface, a cold front will move into MO/KS and OK, which will be situated below the cool temperature aloft. Heating/steep lapse rates near this boundary as well as southerly winds bringing 50s and 60s F dewpoints northward will support scattered strong to severe storms along this portion of the front. The long hodographs and northwest flow regime suggest cells capable of hail are most likely.
To the south, bouts of thunderstorms will develop from TX eastward toward the lower MS Valley. First, early in the day within the moisture return/warm advection regime, then later in the day as the upper low approaches from the west. There is a heavy convective signal from late afternoon into the overnight across much of TX, however, shear will be weak across most areas. At least low severe probabilities may be added in later outlooks as predictability increases and more targeted areas can be discerned.
..Jewell.. 05/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Saturday, May 9
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, May 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, May 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, May 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, May 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060742 SPC AC 060742
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper shortwave trough will be located over TX on Day 4/Saturday. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough will migrate from the central Rockies into the into the central Plains on Saturday. These features will result in modestly increasing mid/upper level northwesterly flow across the Plains. At the surface, modest southerly low-level flow will continue to transport Gulf moisture northward across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley. Weak surface cyclogenesis is possible across the central/southern Plains and a dryline will extend across western KS/OK/TX. This could be a focus for thunderstorm development on Saturday. However, how far north quality moisture return will occur (especially before Saturday night/early Sunday) is uncertain. Additionally, deep-layer flow is not forecast to be very strong. While some strong to severe thunderstorms could develop, confidence is too low to include severe probabilities.
By Day 5/Sunday, a large scale upper trough over the Plains will shift east, extending from the lower Great Lakes to the eastern Gulf by Monday morning. A surface low will move from the Midwest to the eastern U.S. while a trailing cold front develops southeast across the southern Plains and the Mid/Lower MS and OH Valleys. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place across the south-central to Southeast U.S. However, it is uncertain how much destabilization will occur as widespread precipitation and cloud cover are possible. Some strong to severe thunderstorm potential could develop, but predictability is low at this time.
Heading into Days 6-8/Mon-Wed, mean troughing is likely to continue across the East with broad northwesterly flow across the Plains. The cold frontal passage on Sunday will likely suppress Gulf moisture on Monday. Another cold front is forecast to move across portions of the Plains and Midwest on Tuesday and any severe potential will depend on timing and quality of moisture return into the central U.S., which is uncertain. Overall, predictability is low late in the forecast period.
..Leitman.. 05/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, May 10
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, May 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, May 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, May 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, May 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060742 SPC AC 060742
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper shortwave trough will be located over TX on Day 4/Saturday. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough will migrate from the central Rockies into the into the central Plains on Saturday. These features will result in modestly increasing mid/upper level northwesterly flow across the Plains. At the surface, modest southerly low-level flow will continue to transport Gulf moisture northward across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley. Weak surface cyclogenesis is possible across the central/southern Plains and a dryline will extend across western KS/OK/TX. This could be a focus for thunderstorm development on Saturday. However, how far north quality moisture return will occur (especially before Saturday night/early Sunday) is uncertain. Additionally, deep-layer flow is not forecast to be very strong. While some strong to severe thunderstorms could develop, confidence is too low to include severe probabilities.
By Day 5/Sunday, a large scale upper trough over the Plains will shift east, extending from the lower Great Lakes to the eastern Gulf by Monday morning. A surface low will move from the Midwest to the eastern U.S. while a trailing cold front develops southeast across the southern Plains and the Mid/Lower MS and OH Valleys. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place across the south-central to Southeast U.S. However, it is uncertain how much destabilization will occur as widespread precipitation and cloud cover are possible. Some strong to severe thunderstorm potential could develop, but predictability is low at this time.
Heading into Days 6-8/Mon-Wed, mean troughing is likely to continue across the East with broad northwesterly flow across the Plains. The cold frontal passage on Sunday will likely suppress Gulf moisture on Monday. Another cold front is forecast to move across portions of the Plains and Midwest on Tuesday and any severe potential will depend on timing and quality of moisture return into the central U.S., which is uncertain. Overall, predictability is low late in the forecast period.
..Leitman.. 05/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, May 11
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, May 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, May 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, May 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, May 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060742 SPC AC 060742
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper shortwave trough will be located over TX on Day 4/Saturday. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough will migrate from the central Rockies into the into the central Plains on Saturday. These features will result in modestly increasing mid/upper level northwesterly flow across the Plains. At the surface, modest southerly low-level flow will continue to transport Gulf moisture northward across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley. Weak surface cyclogenesis is possible across the central/southern Plains and a dryline will extend across western KS/OK/TX. This could be a focus for thunderstorm development on Saturday. However, how far north quality moisture return will occur (especially before Saturday night/early Sunday) is uncertain. Additionally, deep-layer flow is not forecast to be very strong. While some strong to severe thunderstorms could develop, confidence is too low to include severe probabilities.
By Day 5/Sunday, a large scale upper trough over the Plains will shift east, extending from the lower Great Lakes to the eastern Gulf by Monday morning. A surface low will move from the Midwest to the eastern U.S. while a trailing cold front develops southeast across the southern Plains and the Mid/Lower MS and OH Valleys. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place across the south-central to Southeast U.S. However, it is uncertain how much destabilization will occur as widespread precipitation and cloud cover are possible. Some strong to severe thunderstorm potential could develop, but predictability is low at this time.
Heading into Days 6-8/Mon-Wed, mean troughing is likely to continue across the East with broad northwesterly flow across the Plains. The cold frontal passage on Sunday will likely suppress Gulf moisture on Monday. Another cold front is forecast to move across portions of the Plains and Midwest on Tuesday and any severe potential will depend on timing and quality of moisture return into the central U.S., which is uncertain. Overall, predictability is low late in the forecast period.
..Leitman.. 05/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, May 12
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, May 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, May 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, May 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, May 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060742 SPC AC 060742
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper shortwave trough will be located over TX on Day 4/Saturday. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough will migrate from the central Rockies into the into the central Plains on Saturday. These features will result in modestly increasing mid/upper level northwesterly flow across the Plains. At the surface, modest southerly low-level flow will continue to transport Gulf moisture northward across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley. Weak surface cyclogenesis is possible across the central/southern Plains and a dryline will extend across western KS/OK/TX. This could be a focus for thunderstorm development on Saturday. However, how far north quality moisture return will occur (especially before Saturday night/early Sunday) is uncertain. Additionally, deep-layer flow is not forecast to be very strong. While some strong to severe thunderstorms could develop, confidence is too low to include severe probabilities.
By Day 5/Sunday, a large scale upper trough over the Plains will shift east, extending from the lower Great Lakes to the eastern Gulf by Monday morning. A surface low will move from the Midwest to the eastern U.S. while a trailing cold front develops southeast across the southern Plains and the Mid/Lower MS and OH Valleys. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place across the south-central to Southeast U.S. However, it is uncertain how much destabilization will occur as widespread precipitation and cloud cover are possible. Some strong to severe thunderstorm potential could develop, but predictability is low at this time.
Heading into Days 6-8/Mon-Wed, mean troughing is likely to continue across the East with broad northwesterly flow across the Plains. The cold frontal passage on Sunday will likely suppress Gulf moisture on Monday. Another cold front is forecast to move across portions of the Plains and Midwest on Tuesday and any severe potential will depend on timing and quality of moisture return into the central U.S., which is uncertain. Overall, predictability is low late in the forecast period.
..Leitman.. 05/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, May 13
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, May 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, May 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, May 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, May 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060742 SPC AC 060742
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper shortwave trough will be located over TX on Day 4/Saturday. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough will migrate from the central Rockies into the into the central Plains on Saturday. These features will result in modestly increasing mid/upper level northwesterly flow across the Plains. At the surface, modest southerly low-level flow will continue to transport Gulf moisture northward across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley. Weak surface cyclogenesis is possible across the central/southern Plains and a dryline will extend across western KS/OK/TX. This could be a focus for thunderstorm development on Saturday. However, how far north quality moisture return will occur (especially before Saturday night/early Sunday) is uncertain. Additionally, deep-layer flow is not forecast to be very strong. While some strong to severe thunderstorms could develop, confidence is too low to include severe probabilities.
By Day 5/Sunday, a large scale upper trough over the Plains will shift east, extending from the lower Great Lakes to the eastern Gulf by Monday morning. A surface low will move from the Midwest to the eastern U.S. while a trailing cold front develops southeast across the southern Plains and the Mid/Lower MS and OH Valleys. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place across the south-central to Southeast U.S. However, it is uncertain how much destabilization will occur as widespread precipitation and cloud cover are possible. Some strong to severe thunderstorm potential could develop, but predictability is low at this time.
Heading into Days 6-8/Mon-Wed, mean troughing is likely to continue across the East with broad northwesterly flow across the Plains. The cold frontal passage on Sunday will likely suppress Gulf moisture on Monday. Another cold front is forecast to move across portions of the Plains and Midwest on Tuesday and any severe potential will depend on timing and quality of moisture return into the central U.S., which is uncertain. Overall, predictability is low late in the forecast period.
..Leitman.. 05/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, May 6
- TORNADO: 10%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Thursday, May 7
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Friday, May 8
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Saturday, May 9
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, May 10
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, May 11
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, May 12
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, May 13
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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