Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, November 13
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today and tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 130510
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today and tonight.
Synopsis
An upper shortwave trough near the California coast this morning will shift east toward the southern Rockies by Saturday morning. Cooling aloft will support weak instability across portions of southern AZ/NM to Far West TX. Boundary layer moisture is expected to remain modest, with the dewpoints generally in the 40s and 50s F. This will support scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon across southern AZ/NM, spreading eastward toward southwest TX by late afternoon/early evening. Southerly deep-layer flow is forecast, with effective shear magnitudes generally around 20-25 kt. Modest shear and instability will likely limit severe potential, though gusty winds and small hail could occur with the strongest storms.
Additional thunderstorms are possible across portions of coastal OR into northern/central CA as a second upper shortwave trough moves inland across the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin. A lightning flash or two is possible during the nighttime hours from central CA into the Great Basin, but overall coverage is expected to remain less than 10 percent.
..Leitman/Chalmers.. 11/13/2026
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Saturday, November 14
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely across the U.S. Saturday and Saturday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 130657
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely across the U.S. Saturday and Saturday night.
Southern Plains
A mid-level trough over the western US is forecast to deamplify, as the primary shortwave continues southeastward across the southern Rockies/Plains. To the west, another trough will deepen across the Pacific coast while surface high pressure with cool and relatively dry conditions dominates the East. As the upper trough migrates across the Rockies and into the Plains Saturday/Saturday night, strong mid-level ascent will deepen a lee cyclone from southeastern CO into NM and West TX. Southerly flow will increase and modest surface moisture return (40s to near 50 F dewpoints) will occur beneath cooling mid-level temperatures over the southern High Plains. Weak destabilization is expected with model profiles showing perhaps up to 500 J/kg of elevated MUCAPE available.
Ascent from the upper trough and increasing low-level warm air advection will likely support scattered thunderstorms from the Four Corners to OK/TX from Saturday afternoon/evening. A 30-40 kt southerly low-level jet over parts of western OK/TX may also aide in additional convection overnight. Some potential for a few stronger storms may exist if sufficient buoyancy and around 30-40 kts of effective shear develop. Likely elevated, marginally severe hail would be the primary hazard with any stronger storms able to persist. However the scant destabilization casts significant uncertainty on severe potential, as such, probabilities will be withheld for now.
Elsewhere, occasional lightning flashes will be possible along the Pacific Northwest coast ahead of the aforementioned upper trough. Additional storms are also possible along the lower TX Gulf coast within the southerly return flow and warm advection regime. Very weak buoyancy is expected and coverage, as well as any severe potential will remain low in both locales.
..Lyons.. 11/13/2026
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Sunday, November 15
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across central and the south Texas to the Gulf Coast.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 130828
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across central and the south Texas to the Gulf Coast.
Synopsis
A shortwave trough and mid-level jet will move from the southern High Plains into central TX beneath a building ridge over the Midwest Sunday. An associated surface low will aid southerly flow drawing a modified Gulf air mass northward across south-central TX. However, the expansive surface high to the northeast will likely stall the northward advance of the more robust surface moisture farther south. Elevated buoyancy and thunderstorms are likely across the Red River Vicinity with additional thunderstorm development possible farther south through Sunday and into early Monday.
South-central TX to the Gulf Coast
Showers and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing at the start of the period near the center of the upper trough and surface low associated with low-level warm air advection. Multiple rounds of showers and storms, in combination with the increasingly strong northerly surface gradient, should gradually focus the effective warm sector farther south into TX. Elevated buoyancy of a few hundred J/kg may persist across the Red River vicinity through Sunday afternoon, with low-end potential for sporadic hail with any stronger elevated storms.
Farther south, more robust inland moisture return is expected with mid to upper 60s F surface dewpoints. As the upper trough approaches, low-level warm air advection and diurnal destabilization should support an increase in thunderstorm activity across parts of south and central Texas eastward to the lower to middle Texas Coast. Gradually strengthening veering wind profiles (EBWD 30-40 kt) may favor storm organization into clusters or transient supercells. Damaging gusts, some hail and perhaps a brief tornado are possible into early Monday.
..Lyons.. 11/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Monday, November 16
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, November 15 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Monday, November 16 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, November 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, November 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, November 19 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120800 SPC AC 120800
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains on Sunday/Day 4. Ahead of this feature, a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place across parts of south and central Texas eastward to the lower to middle Texas Coast. Thunderstorms that develop within areas of stronger instability, could have potential for isolated severe wind gusts. The trough is forecast to move eastward across the Gulf and through the Southeast from Monday into Tuesday. On those days, thunderstorms are expected to remain mostly offshore from the central Gulf Coast.
Further west on Tuesday/Day 6, an upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the Desert Southwest. Ahead of this trough, thunderstorms will be possible across parts of southern California and Arizona during the day, and in the southern Rockies Tuesday night. Uncertainty increases on Wednesday and Thursday, but it appears the trough in the Desert Southwest could move into the Great Plains. If this were to occur, thunderstorms would be possible in parts of the southern Plains on Thursday as the trough passes.
In spite of the chances for storms across parts of the southern U.S. during the Day 4 to 8 period, predictability concerning severe potential is low at this time.
..Broyles.. 11/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, November 17
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, November 15 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Monday, November 16 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, November 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, November 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, November 19 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120800 SPC AC 120800
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains on Sunday/Day 4. Ahead of this feature, a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place across parts of south and central Texas eastward to the lower to middle Texas Coast. Thunderstorms that develop within areas of stronger instability, could have potential for isolated severe wind gusts. The trough is forecast to move eastward across the Gulf and through the Southeast from Monday into Tuesday. On those days, thunderstorms are expected to remain mostly offshore from the central Gulf Coast.
Further west on Tuesday/Day 6, an upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the Desert Southwest. Ahead of this trough, thunderstorms will be possible across parts of southern California and Arizona during the day, and in the southern Rockies Tuesday night. Uncertainty increases on Wednesday and Thursday, but it appears the trough in the Desert Southwest could move into the Great Plains. If this were to occur, thunderstorms would be possible in parts of the southern Plains on Thursday as the trough passes.
In spite of the chances for storms across parts of the southern U.S. during the Day 4 to 8 period, predictability concerning severe potential is low at this time.
..Broyles.. 11/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, November 18
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, November 15 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Monday, November 16 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, November 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, November 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, November 19 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120800 SPC AC 120800
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains on Sunday/Day 4. Ahead of this feature, a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place across parts of south and central Texas eastward to the lower to middle Texas Coast. Thunderstorms that develop within areas of stronger instability, could have potential for isolated severe wind gusts. The trough is forecast to move eastward across the Gulf and through the Southeast from Monday into Tuesday. On those days, thunderstorms are expected to remain mostly offshore from the central Gulf Coast.
Further west on Tuesday/Day 6, an upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the Desert Southwest. Ahead of this trough, thunderstorms will be possible across parts of southern California and Arizona during the day, and in the southern Rockies Tuesday night. Uncertainty increases on Wednesday and Thursday, but it appears the trough in the Desert Southwest could move into the Great Plains. If this were to occur, thunderstorms would be possible in parts of the southern Plains on Thursday as the trough passes.
In spite of the chances for storms across parts of the southern U.S. during the Day 4 to 8 period, predictability concerning severe potential is low at this time.
..Broyles.. 11/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, November 19
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, November 15 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Monday, November 16 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, November 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, November 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, November 19 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120800 SPC AC 120800
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains on Sunday/Day 4. Ahead of this feature, a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place across parts of south and central Texas eastward to the lower to middle Texas Coast. Thunderstorms that develop within areas of stronger instability, could have potential for isolated severe wind gusts. The trough is forecast to move eastward across the Gulf and through the Southeast from Monday into Tuesday. On those days, thunderstorms are expected to remain mostly offshore from the central Gulf Coast.
Further west on Tuesday/Day 6, an upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the Desert Southwest. Ahead of this trough, thunderstorms will be possible across parts of southern California and Arizona during the day, and in the southern Rockies Tuesday night. Uncertainty increases on Wednesday and Thursday, but it appears the trough in the Desert Southwest could move into the Great Plains. If this were to occur, thunderstorms would be possible in parts of the southern Plains on Thursday as the trough passes.
In spite of the chances for storms across parts of the southern U.S. during the Day 4 to 8 period, predictability concerning severe potential is low at this time.
..Broyles.. 11/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, November 13
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Saturday, November 14
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Sunday, November 15
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Monday, November 16
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, November 17
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, November 18
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, November 19
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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