Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, January 3
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast today. A few marginally severe storms will also be possible from the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys to coastal areas of northern California and southwest Oregon.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 031240
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026
Valid 031300Z - 041200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL GULF COAST…AND FROM NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast today. A few marginally severe storms will also be possible from the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys to coastal areas of northern California and southwest Oregon.
Southeast/Central Gulf Coast
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough progressing southeastward across northeast TX towards the Lower MS Valley. Expectation is for this wave to continue southeastward through the Lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast before eventually moving off the Southeast coast late tonight/early tomorrow. Surface analysis places a low associated with this wave over east TX, with another low farther east over central AL. A modest stationary front currently extends between these lows. This front will transition to a cold front this morning, progressing southeastward as the surface lows also move southeastward ahead of the approaching shortwave. Mid 60s dewpoints are in place ahead of this front from the Upper TX Coast through southern LA into southern MS/AL. Given the presence of the stationary front, this is likely near the northern extent of this greater low-level moisture.
Diurnal heating will be limited by cloud cover, but the general expectation is for modest buoyancy ahead of the approaching cold front. This buoyancy will support scattered thunderstorm development along the front as it moves through the region. Low-level flow will likely veer ahead of the front, limiting low-level curvature. Even so, strong mid-level westerly/southwesterly flow will extend across the region, resulting in long hodographs that could support occasional organized updrafts. Primary severe risk will be isolated damaging gusts, although a low-probability risk for a brief tornado exists as well. Some isolated hail could also occur, particularly with any storms near the surface low over southern AL and the western FL Panhandle during the late afternoon/early evening when colder mid-level temperatures are in place.
Northern/Central California into Southwest Oregon
Another shortwave trough is forecast to quickly rotate through the base of the cyclone off the Northwest coast, reaching the northern CA/southern OR coast this afternoon. Deep and robust southwesterly flow is currently in place across much of the region. Some weakening is possible throughout the day, but deep-layer vertical shear should remain more than sufficient for rotating storms. However, very limited buoyancy will temper updraft strength and duration, keeping the overall severe potential low. Greatest chance for damaging gusts is expected with any deeper convection that develops as the primary forcing for ascent spreads into the northern CA and southwest OR coasts this afternoon. Additionally, southerly low-level flow up the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys, could result in enough low-level curvature for an isolated low-topped supercell capable of a brief tornado.
..Mosier/Bentley.. 01/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Sunday, January 4
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 030644
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night.
Discussion
Low-probability thunder potential exists across a broad portion of the West Coast and CA Central Valley, as well as in southeast FL.
Across the West, the next in a series of shortwave troughs will approach the Pacific Northwest coast by late afternoon-early evening Sunday. Farther south, low-amplitude shortwave impulses should gradually move east across central/southern CA to the eastern Great Basin. Minimal buoyancy will remain a limiting factor to greater than very isolated thunder coverage. But cold mid-level temperatures will favor potential for sporadic lightning flashes that diurnally peak during the afternoon to early evening.
Over southeast FL, a minority of guidance indicates potential for convection to briefly develop along a weak cold front sinking south. Gradual mid-level warming is expected through the afternoon, as a lingering trough shifts towards the Bahamas, limiting the temporal window for deep convection to form. Thunderstorm probabilities appear to be around 10 percent.
..Grams.. 01/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Monday, January 5
Outlook Summary
Thunder potential appears negligible on Monday and Monday night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 030751
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunder potential appears negligible on Monday and Monday night.
Discussion
A positive-tilt shortwave trough will progress east across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, while a separate shortwave impulse shifts south off the central to southern CA coast. Buoyancy will be minimal in the West, generally confined to coastal CA and parts of the Great Basin. A few lightning flashes are possible in both regions. But with weaker large-scale ascent compared to D2/Sunday, thunder probabilities appear to be less than 10 percent.
Elsewhere, conditions will be too dry/stable for lightning-producing convection through the period.
..Grams.. 01/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Tuesday, January 6
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, January 6 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, January 7 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, January 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, January 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, January 10 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030931 SPC AC 030931
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
Convective potential appears likely to increase across at least the South-Central States by late week. Guidance spread remains large with the handling of a lower-latitude shortwave trough that will initially be off the southern CA/Baja CA coast on D4/Tuesday. Non-ECMWF deterministic guidance largely eject this wave quickly east-northeastward into the southern Great Plains by late D5/Wednesday night. The ECMWF, EC-AIFS, and AIGFS maintain a slower and more reasonable scenario of progression through D6/Thursday. This will probably interact with a modifying warm-moist sector from the western Gulf, with some severe potential in a portion of the South-Central States. Spatiotemporal detail differences exist even among the preferred slower guidance and the majority of GEFS/ECENS ML probs remain below 15 percent for Thursday.
For the broad upper trough over the West, latest EC-AIFS and the ECMWF now depict potential of a negative-tilt evolution compared to prior runs and other guidance. Spread is quite large within the ECENS for both the AI/non-AI, indicative of a poorly predictable pattern for shortwave impulses embedded within the broader trough. But with potential for fast mid-level southwesterlies overlapping seasonably rich low-level moisture emanating north from the western Gulf, and some scenarios indicative of cyclogenesis over the central states, a severe area highlight may eventually be warranted on D7/Friday.
..Grams.. 01/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, January 7
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, January 6 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, January 7 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, January 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, January 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, January 10 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030931 SPC AC 030931
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
Convective potential appears likely to increase across at least the South-Central States by late week. Guidance spread remains large with the handling of a lower-latitude shortwave trough that will initially be off the southern CA/Baja CA coast on D4/Tuesday. Non-ECMWF deterministic guidance largely eject this wave quickly east-northeastward into the southern Great Plains by late D5/Wednesday night. The ECMWF, EC-AIFS, and AIGFS maintain a slower and more reasonable scenario of progression through D6/Thursday. This will probably interact with a modifying warm-moist sector from the western Gulf, with some severe potential in a portion of the South-Central States. Spatiotemporal detail differences exist even among the preferred slower guidance and the majority of GEFS/ECENS ML probs remain below 15 percent for Thursday.
For the broad upper trough over the West, latest EC-AIFS and the ECMWF now depict potential of a negative-tilt evolution compared to prior runs and other guidance. Spread is quite large within the ECENS for both the AI/non-AI, indicative of a poorly predictable pattern for shortwave impulses embedded within the broader trough. But with potential for fast mid-level southwesterlies overlapping seasonably rich low-level moisture emanating north from the western Gulf, and some scenarios indicative of cyclogenesis over the central states, a severe area highlight may eventually be warranted on D7/Friday.
..Grams.. 01/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, January 8
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, January 6 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, January 7 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, January 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, January 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, January 10 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030931 SPC AC 030931
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
Convective potential appears likely to increase across at least the South-Central States by late week. Guidance spread remains large with the handling of a lower-latitude shortwave trough that will initially be off the southern CA/Baja CA coast on D4/Tuesday. Non-ECMWF deterministic guidance largely eject this wave quickly east-northeastward into the southern Great Plains by late D5/Wednesday night. The ECMWF, EC-AIFS, and AIGFS maintain a slower and more reasonable scenario of progression through D6/Thursday. This will probably interact with a modifying warm-moist sector from the western Gulf, with some severe potential in a portion of the South-Central States. Spatiotemporal detail differences exist even among the preferred slower guidance and the majority of GEFS/ECENS ML probs remain below 15 percent for Thursday.
For the broad upper trough over the West, latest EC-AIFS and the ECMWF now depict potential of a negative-tilt evolution compared to prior runs and other guidance. Spread is quite large within the ECENS for both the AI/non-AI, indicative of a poorly predictable pattern for shortwave impulses embedded within the broader trough. But with potential for fast mid-level southwesterlies overlapping seasonably rich low-level moisture emanating north from the western Gulf, and some scenarios indicative of cyclogenesis over the central states, a severe area highlight may eventually be warranted on D7/Friday.
..Grams.. 01/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, January 9
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, January 6 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, January 7 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, January 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, January 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, January 10 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030931 SPC AC 030931
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
Convective potential appears likely to increase across at least the South-Central States by late week. Guidance spread remains large with the handling of a lower-latitude shortwave trough that will initially be off the southern CA/Baja CA coast on D4/Tuesday. Non-ECMWF deterministic guidance largely eject this wave quickly east-northeastward into the southern Great Plains by late D5/Wednesday night. The ECMWF, EC-AIFS, and AIGFS maintain a slower and more reasonable scenario of progression through D6/Thursday. This will probably interact with a modifying warm-moist sector from the western Gulf, with some severe potential in a portion of the South-Central States. Spatiotemporal detail differences exist even among the preferred slower guidance and the majority of GEFS/ECENS ML probs remain below 15 percent for Thursday.
For the broad upper trough over the West, latest EC-AIFS and the ECMWF now depict potential of a negative-tilt evolution compared to prior runs and other guidance. Spread is quite large within the ECENS for both the AI/non-AI, indicative of a poorly predictable pattern for shortwave impulses embedded within the broader trough. But with potential for fast mid-level southwesterlies overlapping seasonably rich low-level moisture emanating north from the western Gulf, and some scenarios indicative of cyclogenesis over the central states, a severe area highlight may eventually be warranted on D7/Friday.
..Grams.. 01/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, January 10
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, January 6 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, January 7 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, January 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, January 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, January 10 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030931 SPC AC 030931
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
Convective potential appears likely to increase across at least the South-Central States by late week. Guidance spread remains large with the handling of a lower-latitude shortwave trough that will initially be off the southern CA/Baja CA coast on D4/Tuesday. Non-ECMWF deterministic guidance largely eject this wave quickly east-northeastward into the southern Great Plains by late D5/Wednesday night. The ECMWF, EC-AIFS, and AIGFS maintain a slower and more reasonable scenario of progression through D6/Thursday. This will probably interact with a modifying warm-moist sector from the western Gulf, with some severe potential in a portion of the South-Central States. Spatiotemporal detail differences exist even among the preferred slower guidance and the majority of GEFS/ECENS ML probs remain below 15 percent for Thursday.
For the broad upper trough over the West, latest EC-AIFS and the ECMWF now depict potential of a negative-tilt evolution compared to prior runs and other guidance. Spread is quite large within the ECENS for both the AI/non-AI, indicative of a poorly predictable pattern for shortwave impulses embedded within the broader trough. But with potential for fast mid-level southwesterlies overlapping seasonably rich low-level moisture emanating north from the western Gulf, and some scenarios indicative of cyclogenesis over the central states, a severe area highlight may eventually be warranted on D7/Friday.
..Grams.. 01/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, January 3
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Sunday, January 4
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Monday, January 5
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Tuesday, January 6
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, January 7
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, January 8
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, January 9
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, January 10
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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