Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, September 25
Outlook Summary
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 251609
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026
Valid 251630Z - 261200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today.
Synopsis
An MCS is decaying across the TX Panhandle/South Plains late this morning. Outflow associated with this area of convection is spreading south and east, while areas of rain and cloud cover slowly develop northeastward toward western OK. In the wake of this early day convection, some airmass recovery and modest destabilization is possible across southeast NM into far southwest TX where stronger heating is occurring amid more scattered cloudiness. Likewise, across western OK ahead of the TX Panhandle convection and outflow, more isolated cloud cover is allowing for stronger heating of a moist boundary layer.
Southeast NM/Southwest TX
Midlevel lapse rates are expected to remain modest and MLCAPE will range from 500-1000 J/kg by mid/late afternoon. Isolated convection may develop near higher terrain initially across southeast NM/southwest TX. A storm or two could briefly become strong and produce marginal hail, but the severe risk is expected to be tempered by the marginal thermodynamic/kinematic parameter space in the wake of the early day MCS.
Western OK
While currently mostly sunny across western OK, afternoon heating could become muted by cloud cover as showers associated with the ongoing TX Panhandle activity spread east/northeast the next few hours. This could limit stronger destabilization/steepening of low-level lapse rates within a modestly sheared environment. A strong gust or two could occur if sufficient heating/steepening of low-level lapse rates unfolds. However, given modest vertical shear, weak midlevel lapse rates, and marginal instability, the overall severe risk appears limited.
..Leitman/Chalmers.. 09/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Saturday, September 26
Outlook Summary
Isolated hail and damaging winds may accompany a few strong to severe thunderstorms across portions of the central and southern Plains Saturday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 250545
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Isolated hail and damaging winds may accompany a few strong to severe thunderstorms across portions of the central and southern Plains Saturday.
Synopsis
An upper trough and mid-level cutoff low will meander along the West and East Coasts, respectively, while an upper ridge begins to build over the Plains tomorrow (Saturday). A mid-level impulse will traverse the upper ridge and eject from the Rockies, encouraging weak surface low development over the southern Plains. Modest low-level warm-air/moisture advection with a strengthening low-level jet, along with the approach of the aforementioned impulse, will foster enough overlapping vertical wind shear and buoyancy to support an isolated severe threat across the southern Plains.
Central and Southern Plains
By afternoon, surface temperatures should warm into the 80s F, amid 60s F dewpoints, beneath 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates, resulting in 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE across much of central and eastern KS into western TX. As the mid-level impulse approaches and low-level warm-air advection intensifies, thunderstorms should initiate amid a vertical wind profile characterized by some veering and strengthening with height. Given 25-35 kts of effective bulk shear expected, multicells and a couple of transient supercells will be the primary storm modes, capable of isolated severe wind and hail.
..Squitieri.. 09/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Sunday, September 27
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 250723
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.
Synopsis
A mid-level cut-off low will meander just off of the Mid-Atlantic coastline while upper ridging persists over the central U.S. and an upper trough amplifies west of the Rockies on Sunday. Thunderstorms will be possible across the central and northern Rockies ahead of an embedded mid-level impulse, which will be accompanied by cooler temperatures aloft and deep-layer ascent. Thunderstorms will also be possible in the Plains states in association with low-level moisture advection accompanying surface lee troughing. Across the northern High Plains, strong vertical wind shear will accompany the approaching mid-level impulse, which may ultimately support an instance or two of marginally severe wind or hail. However, buoyancy will be negligible to poor, so organized severe potential is unlikely at this time, precluding the need for probabilities this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 09/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Monday, September 28
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, September 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, September 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, September 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, October 1 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, October 2 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250824 SPC AC 250824
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper troughing over the Interior West, containing multiple smaller impulses, will gradually progress eastward to the Plains states through the middle of the week (Days 5-7/Tuesday-Thursday) before another mid-level trough approaches the central U.S. by next weekend. Deterministic medium-range guidance consensus depicts the development of a surface low over the southern Plains around Day 6/Wednesday, accompanied by seasonal low-level moisture return. However, guidance also depicts a poor overlap of vertical wind shear with the moist axis, likely inhibiting greater severe potential, in agreement with calibrated ML/AI guidance consensus. As such, no probabilities were introduced this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 09/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, September 29
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, September 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, September 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, September 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, October 1 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, October 2 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250824 SPC AC 250824
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper troughing over the Interior West, containing multiple smaller impulses, will gradually progress eastward to the Plains states through the middle of the week (Days 5-7/Tuesday-Thursday) before another mid-level trough approaches the central U.S. by next weekend. Deterministic medium-range guidance consensus depicts the development of a surface low over the southern Plains around Day 6/Wednesday, accompanied by seasonal low-level moisture return. However, guidance also depicts a poor overlap of vertical wind shear with the moist axis, likely inhibiting greater severe potential, in agreement with calibrated ML/AI guidance consensus. As such, no probabilities were introduced this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 09/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, September 30
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, September 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, September 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, September 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, October 1 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, October 2 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250824 SPC AC 250824
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper troughing over the Interior West, containing multiple smaller impulses, will gradually progress eastward to the Plains states through the middle of the week (Days 5-7/Tuesday-Thursday) before another mid-level trough approaches the central U.S. by next weekend. Deterministic medium-range guidance consensus depicts the development of a surface low over the southern Plains around Day 6/Wednesday, accompanied by seasonal low-level moisture return. However, guidance also depicts a poor overlap of vertical wind shear with the moist axis, likely inhibiting greater severe potential, in agreement with calibrated ML/AI guidance consensus. As such, no probabilities were introduced this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 09/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, October 1
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, September 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, September 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, September 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, October 1 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, October 2 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250824 SPC AC 250824
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper troughing over the Interior West, containing multiple smaller impulses, will gradually progress eastward to the Plains states through the middle of the week (Days 5-7/Tuesday-Thursday) before another mid-level trough approaches the central U.S. by next weekend. Deterministic medium-range guidance consensus depicts the development of a surface low over the southern Plains around Day 6/Wednesday, accompanied by seasonal low-level moisture return. However, guidance also depicts a poor overlap of vertical wind shear with the moist axis, likely inhibiting greater severe potential, in agreement with calibrated ML/AI guidance consensus. As such, no probabilities were introduced this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 09/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, October 2
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, September 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, September 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, September 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, October 1 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, October 2 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250824 SPC AC 250824
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper troughing over the Interior West, containing multiple smaller impulses, will gradually progress eastward to the Plains states through the middle of the week (Days 5-7/Tuesday-Thursday) before another mid-level trough approaches the central U.S. by next weekend. Deterministic medium-range guidance consensus depicts the development of a surface low over the southern Plains around Day 6/Wednesday, accompanied by seasonal low-level moisture return. However, guidance also depicts a poor overlap of vertical wind shear with the moist axis, likely inhibiting greater severe potential, in agreement with calibrated ML/AI guidance consensus. As such, no probabilities were introduced this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 09/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, September 25
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Saturday, September 26
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Sunday, September 27
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Monday, September 28
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, September 29
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, September 30
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, October 1
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, October 2
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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