Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Sunday, July 12

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible this evening across parts of the southern Atlantic Seaboard and in southern Arizona. Severe gusts and hail may also occur in parts of the western Great Lakes. A few strong gusts will also be possible in northeast Montana, and from the southern Plains into the Southeast.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 130101

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Valid 130100Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD…AND IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible this evening across parts of the southern Atlantic Seaboard and in southern Arizona. Severe gusts and hail may also occur in parts of the western Great Lakes. A few strong gusts will also be possible in northeast Montana, and from the southern Plains into the Southeast.

Southern North Carolina/South Carolina/Far Eastern Georgia

A mid-level shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery from the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas. At the surface, a cold front is located over southern North Carolina. To the south of the front, a very moist air is in place with dewpoints in the 70s F, which is contributing to moderate instability. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across much of this airmass from southern North Carolina into eastern Georgia. The latest WSR-88D VWPs at Wilmington, North Carolina and Colubmia, South Carolina have 0-6 km shear in the 20 to 30 knot range. This environment may support a threat for severe wind gusts for another hour early this evening.

Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast

A very moist airmass is in place from the southern Plains eastward into the Southeast. Over much of the region, the RAP has moderate instability, with surface dewpoints in the 70s F. Numerous thunderstorms are ongoing from north-central Texas eastward into southern Alabama. Along this corridor, the instability combined with steep low-level lapse rates will support a threat for isolated severe gusts for another hour or two.

Southern Arizona

At the surface, a sufficiently moist airmass is in place over southern and central Arizona. In this area, the RAP has an axis of moderate instability analyzed with SBCAPE estimated in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. Thunderstorms are ongoing just to the west of the instability axis, and these storms will continue to move westward across southern and western Arizona this evening. Large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads and steep low-level lapse rate will continue to support a potential for severe wind gusts…see MCD 1609.

Western Great Lakes

North-northwesterly mid-level flow is located over the western Great Lakes, where a moist airmass is present. Surface dewpoints are in the 60s and lower 70s F, and the RAP has an axis of moderate instability from northern Wisconsin into Upper Michigan. Scattered strong to severe storms are ongoing further north over southern Ontario. One of these cells could remain intact and move southward across Lake Superior into Upper Michigan this evening. In that case, the instability combined with moderate deep-layer shear would support an isolated threat for severe wind gusts and hail.

Northern Montana

Southwest mid-level flow is in place over the northwestern U.S. At the surface, a cold front is located over central and northeast Montana, where isolated thunderstorms are ongoing. Near and ahead of the front in northeast Montana, the RAP is analyzing moderate instability. Thunderstorms that move in and toward the stronger instability over the next couple of hours, may produce isolated severe wind gusts…see MCD 1610.

..Broyles.. 07/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Monday, July 13

Outlook Summary

A few strong-to-severe storms will be possible from South Carolina into central Georgia and far North Florida on Monday. Additional isolated severe storms are possible in southwestern Montana.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 121717

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN PARTS OF EASTERN GEORGIA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA…AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA

### SUMMARY

A few strong-to-severe storms will be possible from South Carolina into central Georgia and far North Florida on Monday. Additional isolated severe storms are possible in southwestern Montana.

Synopsis

Upper-level ridging will continue to build across the CONUS on Monday. Strong cyclonic flow will exist across the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. A weak upper-level low will be present in the Tennessee Valley/southern Appalachians. A stalled surface boundary will be draped across the southern Plains into the Carolinas.

Georgia/South Carolina

A stalled surface boundary will continue to be the focus for convection on Monday. Surface heating is expected to be less than previous days. Even so, a weak upper low will bring subtle lift/flow enhancement near the surface boundary. Overall storm organization will be low. That said, around 20 kt of shear near the boundary, large PWAT values, and scattered/numerous storms will promote a risk of water-loaded downdrafts capable of isolated wind damage.

Southwest Montana

Model trends have suggested that sufficient moisture/destabilization will be in place by late afternoon into the evening. Isolated to widely scattered storms are expected to develop within the higher terrain and move quickly northeastward. Temperatures in the upper 80s/low 90s F and inverted-v thermodynamic profiles will support a risk for severe winds.

Arizona

Temperatures are expected to be cooler on Monday on account of the impacts of weekend convection. Coupled with weaker and slightly more southwesterly mid-level winds, it is not clear how much strong to potentially severe activity will be able to move off of the Mogollon Rim during the afternoon/evening. A stronger storm or two could produce gusty outflow winds where greater heating can occur, but this activity should be much more spatially limited than previous days.

..Wendt.. 07/12/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, July 14

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and evening across portions of New England on Tuesday. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of western and central Montana.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 121934

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and evening across portions of New England on Tuesday. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of western and central Montana.

New England

A strong shortwave trough is expected to move into the region during the evening. The strongest forcing for ascent will likely arrive after dark. Still, low-level moistening will promote moderate to strong buoyancy even into the evening (1500-2500 J/kg MUCAPE). 50-60 kt of 0-6 km shear will promote organized convection capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. A conditional tornado threat will also exist with any supercell structures that can remain surface based.

Montana

Moderate to strong mid-level cyclonic flow will continue within the northern Rockies. An increase in low/mid-level moisture is expected as compared to previous days. A shortwave trough coupled with at least modest heating within the higher terrain will promote widely scattered to scattered storms. With an increase in cloud cover expected, it is not clear whether storms will be surface based. Severe wind gusts and marginally severe hail are possible with the strongest storms.

..Wendt.. 07/12/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, July 15

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120900 SPC AC 120900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

An expansive mid-level ridge centered over the north-central US will continue to retrograde during the early part of the forecast period, before becoming centered over the Rockies toward the end of the upcoming week. A seasonably strong mid-level trough will be positioned over northern Quebec, positioning strong northwesterly flow from the Upper Midwest southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and areas to the northeast. A combination of deterministic and ensemble forecast solutions, including AI emulators, show one or more short-wave troughs or jet streaks moving through this enhanced flow field.

The position of these mid-level features will help drive a surface front southward across the eastern US that will stretch from somewhere in the central/north-central US into the Mid-Atlantic. To the north of this boundary, a seasonably cool, dry airmass should be found. Along and south of this surface boundary, a very warm, moist, and unstable airmass will be found.

As the aforementioned short-wave troughs move through the enhanced mid-level flow, one or more rounds of thunderstorms/mesoscale convective systems are likely to develop and move east/southeast. Ensemble guidance continues to show a very unstable airmass (MUCAPE in excess of 2000-3000 J/kg) along and south of where the surface boundary resides, with strong vertical shear. The overall pattern would seem to suggest multiple rounds/days of severe potential, with prior days' convection likely modulating the where and intensity of subsequent days' convection.

Given these sensitivities to prior days' convection, there will likely be run-to-run variability within the deterministic guidance suite as we approach the latter half of next week. Thus, while confidence is high in severe potential during the Day 4-8 period (and perhaps beyond), highlighting specific locations and days of severe potential will prove challenging, with likely areas changing from model run-to-run.

### Friday/Day 6 – Mid-Atlantic Region

This evening's deterministic guidance suite (20260712 00 UTC), along with yesterday morning's deterministic guidance suite (20260711 12 UTC), is faster moving the surface boundary south than last night's guidance suite (20260711 00 UTC). However, the overall ensemble guidance continues to suggest severe potential across the region, owing to differences in the position of the surface boundary and the timing of mid-level vorticity maxima. Severe probabilities (15%) have been retained with this forecast in a nod to the ensemble guidance suite, but if the current trend of pushing the surface boundary farther south on Thursday (Day 5) continues, severe weather probabilities may need to be removed as the surface boundary will push south of the better deep-layer shear.

..Marsh.. 07/12/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Thursday, July 16

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120900 SPC AC 120900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

An expansive mid-level ridge centered over the north-central US will continue to retrograde during the early part of the forecast period, before becoming centered over the Rockies toward the end of the upcoming week. A seasonably strong mid-level trough will be positioned over northern Quebec, positioning strong northwesterly flow from the Upper Midwest southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and areas to the northeast. A combination of deterministic and ensemble forecast solutions, including AI emulators, show one or more short-wave troughs or jet streaks moving through this enhanced flow field.

The position of these mid-level features will help drive a surface front southward across the eastern US that will stretch from somewhere in the central/north-central US into the Mid-Atlantic. To the north of this boundary, a seasonably cool, dry airmass should be found. Along and south of this surface boundary, a very warm, moist, and unstable airmass will be found.

As the aforementioned short-wave troughs move through the enhanced mid-level flow, one or more rounds of thunderstorms/mesoscale convective systems are likely to develop and move east/southeast. Ensemble guidance continues to show a very unstable airmass (MUCAPE in excess of 2000-3000 J/kg) along and south of where the surface boundary resides, with strong vertical shear. The overall pattern would seem to suggest multiple rounds/days of severe potential, with prior days' convection likely modulating the where and intensity of subsequent days' convection.

Given these sensitivities to prior days' convection, there will likely be run-to-run variability within the deterministic guidance suite as we approach the latter half of next week. Thus, while confidence is high in severe potential during the Day 4-8 period (and perhaps beyond), highlighting specific locations and days of severe potential will prove challenging, with likely areas changing from model run-to-run.

### Friday/Day 6 – Mid-Atlantic Region

This evening's deterministic guidance suite (20260712 00 UTC), along with yesterday morning's deterministic guidance suite (20260711 12 UTC), is faster moving the surface boundary south than last night's guidance suite (20260711 00 UTC). However, the overall ensemble guidance continues to suggest severe potential across the region, owing to differences in the position of the surface boundary and the timing of mid-level vorticity maxima. Severe probabilities (15%) have been retained with this forecast in a nod to the ensemble guidance suite, but if the current trend of pushing the surface boundary farther south on Thursday (Day 5) continues, severe weather probabilities may need to be removed as the surface boundary will push south of the better deep-layer shear.

..Marsh.. 07/12/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

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Outlook for Friday, July 17

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120900 SPC AC 120900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

An expansive mid-level ridge centered over the north-central US will continue to retrograde during the early part of the forecast period, before becoming centered over the Rockies toward the end of the upcoming week. A seasonably strong mid-level trough will be positioned over northern Quebec, positioning strong northwesterly flow from the Upper Midwest southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and areas to the northeast. A combination of deterministic and ensemble forecast solutions, including AI emulators, show one or more short-wave troughs or jet streaks moving through this enhanced flow field.

The position of these mid-level features will help drive a surface front southward across the eastern US that will stretch from somewhere in the central/north-central US into the Mid-Atlantic. To the north of this boundary, a seasonably cool, dry airmass should be found. Along and south of this surface boundary, a very warm, moist, and unstable airmass will be found.

As the aforementioned short-wave troughs move through the enhanced mid-level flow, one or more rounds of thunderstorms/mesoscale convective systems are likely to develop and move east/southeast. Ensemble guidance continues to show a very unstable airmass (MUCAPE in excess of 2000-3000 J/kg) along and south of where the surface boundary resides, with strong vertical shear. The overall pattern would seem to suggest multiple rounds/days of severe potential, with prior days' convection likely modulating the where and intensity of subsequent days' convection.

Given these sensitivities to prior days' convection, there will likely be run-to-run variability within the deterministic guidance suite as we approach the latter half of next week. Thus, while confidence is high in severe potential during the Day 4-8 period (and perhaps beyond), highlighting specific locations and days of severe potential will prove challenging, with likely areas changing from model run-to-run.

### Friday/Day 6 – Mid-Atlantic Region

This evening's deterministic guidance suite (20260712 00 UTC), along with yesterday morning's deterministic guidance suite (20260711 12 UTC), is faster moving the surface boundary south than last night's guidance suite (20260711 00 UTC). However, the overall ensemble guidance continues to suggest severe potential across the region, owing to differences in the position of the surface boundary and the timing of mid-level vorticity maxima. Severe probabilities (15%) have been retained with this forecast in a nod to the ensemble guidance suite, but if the current trend of pushing the surface boundary farther south on Thursday (Day 5) continues, severe weather probabilities may need to be removed as the surface boundary will push south of the better deep-layer shear.

..Marsh.. 07/12/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

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Outlook for Saturday, July 18

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120900 SPC AC 120900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

An expansive mid-level ridge centered over the north-central US will continue to retrograde during the early part of the forecast period, before becoming centered over the Rockies toward the end of the upcoming week. A seasonably strong mid-level trough will be positioned over northern Quebec, positioning strong northwesterly flow from the Upper Midwest southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and areas to the northeast. A combination of deterministic and ensemble forecast solutions, including AI emulators, show one or more short-wave troughs or jet streaks moving through this enhanced flow field.

The position of these mid-level features will help drive a surface front southward across the eastern US that will stretch from somewhere in the central/north-central US into the Mid-Atlantic. To the north of this boundary, a seasonably cool, dry airmass should be found. Along and south of this surface boundary, a very warm, moist, and unstable airmass will be found.

As the aforementioned short-wave troughs move through the enhanced mid-level flow, one or more rounds of thunderstorms/mesoscale convective systems are likely to develop and move east/southeast. Ensemble guidance continues to show a very unstable airmass (MUCAPE in excess of 2000-3000 J/kg) along and south of where the surface boundary resides, with strong vertical shear. The overall pattern would seem to suggest multiple rounds/days of severe potential, with prior days' convection likely modulating the where and intensity of subsequent days' convection.

Given these sensitivities to prior days' convection, there will likely be run-to-run variability within the deterministic guidance suite as we approach the latter half of next week. Thus, while confidence is high in severe potential during the Day 4-8 period (and perhaps beyond), highlighting specific locations and days of severe potential will prove challenging, with likely areas changing from model run-to-run.

### Friday/Day 6 – Mid-Atlantic Region

This evening's deterministic guidance suite (20260712 00 UTC), along with yesterday morning's deterministic guidance suite (20260711 12 UTC), is faster moving the surface boundary south than last night's guidance suite (20260711 00 UTC). However, the overall ensemble guidance continues to suggest severe potential across the region, owing to differences in the position of the surface boundary and the timing of mid-level vorticity maxima. Severe probabilities (15%) have been retained with this forecast in a nod to the ensemble guidance suite, but if the current trend of pushing the surface boundary farther south on Thursday (Day 5) continues, severe weather probabilities may need to be removed as the surface boundary will push south of the better deep-layer shear.

..Marsh.. 07/12/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

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Outlook for Sunday, July 19

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120900 SPC AC 120900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

An expansive mid-level ridge centered over the north-central US will continue to retrograde during the early part of the forecast period, before becoming centered over the Rockies toward the end of the upcoming week. A seasonably strong mid-level trough will be positioned over northern Quebec, positioning strong northwesterly flow from the Upper Midwest southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and areas to the northeast. A combination of deterministic and ensemble forecast solutions, including AI emulators, show one or more short-wave troughs or jet streaks moving through this enhanced flow field.

The position of these mid-level features will help drive a surface front southward across the eastern US that will stretch from somewhere in the central/north-central US into the Mid-Atlantic. To the north of this boundary, a seasonably cool, dry airmass should be found. Along and south of this surface boundary, a very warm, moist, and unstable airmass will be found.

As the aforementioned short-wave troughs move through the enhanced mid-level flow, one or more rounds of thunderstorms/mesoscale convective systems are likely to develop and move east/southeast. Ensemble guidance continues to show a very unstable airmass (MUCAPE in excess of 2000-3000 J/kg) along and south of where the surface boundary resides, with strong vertical shear. The overall pattern would seem to suggest multiple rounds/days of severe potential, with prior days' convection likely modulating the where and intensity of subsequent days' convection.

Given these sensitivities to prior days' convection, there will likely be run-to-run variability within the deterministic guidance suite as we approach the latter half of next week. Thus, while confidence is high in severe potential during the Day 4-8 period (and perhaps beyond), highlighting specific locations and days of severe potential will prove challenging, with likely areas changing from model run-to-run.

### Friday/Day 6 – Mid-Atlantic Region

This evening's deterministic guidance suite (20260712 00 UTC), along with yesterday morning's deterministic guidance suite (20260711 12 UTC), is faster moving the surface boundary south than last night's guidance suite (20260711 00 UTC). However, the overall ensemble guidance continues to suggest severe potential across the region, owing to differences in the position of the surface boundary and the timing of mid-level vorticity maxima. Severe probabilities (15%) have been retained with this forecast in a nod to the ensemble guidance suite, but if the current trend of pushing the surface boundary farther south on Thursday (Day 5) continues, severe weather probabilities may need to be removed as the surface boundary will push south of the better deep-layer shear.

..Marsh.. 07/12/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

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National Risk Overview

Sunday, July 12

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 15%

Monday, July 13

TORNADO: low

HAIL: low

WIND: 5%

Tuesday, July 14

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Wednesday, July 15

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Thursday, July 16

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, July 17

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Saturday, July 18

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Sunday, July 19

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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