Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, September 20
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and large hail remain possible this afternoon and evening across parts of Oklahoma and from eastern Colorado into far western Kansas. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible in parts of the southern Plains and from the Ozarks eastward into the Ohio Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 201944
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026
Valid 202000Z - 211200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and large hail remain possible this afternoon and evening across parts of Oklahoma and from eastern Colorado into far western Kansas. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible in parts of the southern Plains and from the Ozarks eastward into the Ohio Valley.
20z Update
The forecast remains generally on track, with only minor adjustments made to the existing outlook. See the discussion below for additional information.
..Chalmers/Wendt.. 09/20/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026/
Central/North TX into central/eastern OK
Surface analysis places a low over central OK, along a cold front that arcs from northeast OK into southwest OK and then back up through the central TX Panhandle. This low also precedes a shortwave trough moving into western OK. The cold front is forecast to shift southward/southeastward today as the shortwave continues eastward. The airmass ahead of this front will be warm, moist, and moderately buoyant, and thunderstorm development is expected from central/eastern OK into central TX. Mid-level flow is slightly stronger across OK, supporting a greater potential for strong to severe storms. A more isolated severe risk exists across TX where a more disorganized storm mode is likely. Primary threat is damaging gusts from 55 to 65 mph.
Central High Plains… An easterly component to low-level flow north of the surface front will maintain a fetch of moisture (50s deg F surface dewpoints) across eastern CO this afternoon. This moisture, combined with heating and cool temperatures aloft, will enable moderate destabilization by afternoon. Thunderstorm development is expected as ascent attendant to the mid-level cyclone over WY persists across the region. Moderate mid-level westerly flow will also persist throughout the base of this cyclone, resulting in moderate to strong vertical shear across the region this afternoon and evening. Storm coverage is expected to remain isolated to widely scattered (largely due to cooler surface temperatures and some lingering convective inhibition), but any storms that do form and mature will likely be supercellular. Primary severe hazard is large hail (1 to 2.5 inches in diameter), but isolated severe gusts are possible as well. Some lingering severe risk may eventually develop over southeast CO late this evening and spread into the OK Panhandle overnight.
Ozarks into the Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys
Recent surface analysis places lows over central PA, central IL, central MO, and central OK. An arcing stationary boundary extends between these features, with this boundary largely demarcated by a subtle wind shift. Current water vapor satellite imagery shows several convectively augmented vorticity maxima within this corridor as well. These vorticity maxima are forecast to progress eastward/northeastward along the northern periphery of a weakened mid-level anticyclone centered over the northwest Gulf Coast, augmenting low-level convergence and helping to support afternoon/evening thunderstorms from the OH Valley into central/southern MO.
Despite ample low-level moisture, relatively warm temperatures aloft will likely mitigate the overall buoyancy. Even so, steep low-level lapse rates and moderate mid-level flow could still support some bowing line segments capable of damaging gusts. Highest thunderstorm coverage this afternoon and evening is expected from central/southern IN into southern OH, with another corridor of relatively higher coverage developing across central MO later this evening as well. Both of these corridors are downstream of a previously mentioned vorticity max, and represent areas of greater severe potential.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Monday, September 21
Outlook Summary
A few instances of damaging gusts are possible across the central and southern Appalachians to northern and central Mississippi on Monday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 201637
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MISSISSIPPI TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
### SUMMARY
A few instances of damaging gusts are possible across the central and southern Appalachians to northern and central Mississippi on Monday.
Central Appalachians to MS
Modest westerly deep-layer flow will overspread the Ohio Valley to central Appalachians ahead of a weak mid/upper shortwave trough shifting east from the central/southern Plains to the MS Valley. At the surface, a cold front will extend from the Mid-South through the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic early in the forecast period. This front will sag southward through the period, becoming oriented from the TN Valley to the Carolinas by early Tuesday. Ahead of the boundary, a moist airmass characterized by mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints will be in place. Where stronger heating occurs, moderate destabilization is expected. Vertical shear is expected to be weak, with effective shear magnitudes generally less than 15 kt. This should limit organized convection, with mainly pulse thunderstorm activity anticipated. PW values around 1.5-1.75 inches could support sporadic strong gusts. Storm coverage is expected to be isolated to widely scattered and overall risk limited by marginal environmental parameters.
Far eastern NM into central TX
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within an easterly/low-level upslope flow regime along a south/southwest moving surface cold front. Vertically veering wind profiles will result in modest effective shear, but deep-layer flow will be very weak. Additionally, weak capping between 850-700 mb in evident in forecast soundings. A narrow corridor of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast, though midlevel lapse rates will remain modest. Any storms that develop could also quickly become undercut by the surface cold front. Where stronger heating occurs, occasional gusty winds are possible, but overall severe risk appears too limited to include unconditional probabilities at this time.
..Leitman.. 09/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Tuesday, September 22
Outlook Summary
Isolated wind damage may occur with stronger storms from far east-central Mississippi into portions of the southern Appalachians on Tuesday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 201816
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EAST-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
### SUMMARY
Isolated wind damage may occur with stronger storms from far east-central Mississippi into portions of the southern Appalachians on Tuesday.
Far east-central MS into parts of the southern Appalachians
A surface cold front will be in place across the TN to Lower MS Valleys Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, the CAD/wedge front will develop south across the Carolinas through Tuesday evening. Ahead of the surface boundaries, upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will be in place beneath weak midlevel lapse rates. Abundant low-level moisture and stronger heating will support a corridor of moderate destabilization from far east-central MS toward far western NC. Deep-layer westerly flow will remain weak, and effective shear magnitudes less than 20 kt. However, steepened low-level lapse rates and PW values near 1.75-2 inches could support sporadic strong gusts from wet microbursts within thunderstorm clusters during the afternoon and early evening. The CAD/wedge front across the Carolinas will limit northeast extent of the severe risk, and probabilities have been removed from that area with the Day 3 update.
..Leitman.. 09/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Wednesday, September 23
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 23 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, September 24 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, September 25 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, September 26 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, September 27 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200823 SPC AC 200823
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper ridging will persist over the central U.S. through the forecast period, with a meandering upper trough evolving into a cut-off upper low off of the Mid-Atlantic Coast and an upper trough amplifying over the Interior West late this week into next weekend. Through the week, a relatively dry low-level airmass will settle east of the MS River and west of the Rockies, limiting the severe threat over the western and eastern third of the U.S. Some modest moisture return is likely across the Plains given lee troughing. However, upper support will be weak, which should limit the severe threat across the central U.S. as well. As such, no organized severe threats seem apparent for the CONUS Days 4-8 (Wednesday-Sunday).
..Squitieri.. 09/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, September 24
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 23 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, September 24 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, September 25 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, September 26 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, September 27 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200823 SPC AC 200823
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper ridging will persist over the central U.S. through the forecast period, with a meandering upper trough evolving into a cut-off upper low off of the Mid-Atlantic Coast and an upper trough amplifying over the Interior West late this week into next weekend. Through the week, a relatively dry low-level airmass will settle east of the MS River and west of the Rockies, limiting the severe threat over the western and eastern third of the U.S. Some modest moisture return is likely across the Plains given lee troughing. However, upper support will be weak, which should limit the severe threat across the central U.S. as well. As such, no organized severe threats seem apparent for the CONUS Days 4-8 (Wednesday-Sunday).
..Squitieri.. 09/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, September 25
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 23 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, September 24 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, September 25 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, September 26 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, September 27 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200823 SPC AC 200823
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper ridging will persist over the central U.S. through the forecast period, with a meandering upper trough evolving into a cut-off upper low off of the Mid-Atlantic Coast and an upper trough amplifying over the Interior West late this week into next weekend. Through the week, a relatively dry low-level airmass will settle east of the MS River and west of the Rockies, limiting the severe threat over the western and eastern third of the U.S. Some modest moisture return is likely across the Plains given lee troughing. However, upper support will be weak, which should limit the severe threat across the central U.S. as well. As such, no organized severe threats seem apparent for the CONUS Days 4-8 (Wednesday-Sunday).
..Squitieri.. 09/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, September 26
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 23 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, September 24 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, September 25 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, September 26 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, September 27 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200823 SPC AC 200823
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper ridging will persist over the central U.S. through the forecast period, with a meandering upper trough evolving into a cut-off upper low off of the Mid-Atlantic Coast and an upper trough amplifying over the Interior West late this week into next weekend. Through the week, a relatively dry low-level airmass will settle east of the MS River and west of the Rockies, limiting the severe threat over the western and eastern third of the U.S. Some modest moisture return is likely across the Plains given lee troughing. However, upper support will be weak, which should limit the severe threat across the central U.S. as well. As such, no organized severe threats seem apparent for the CONUS Days 4-8 (Wednesday-Sunday).
..Squitieri.. 09/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, September 27
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 23 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, September 24 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, September 25 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, September 26 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, September 27 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200823 SPC AC 200823
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper ridging will persist over the central U.S. through the forecast period, with a meandering upper trough evolving into a cut-off upper low off of the Mid-Atlantic Coast and an upper trough amplifying over the Interior West late this week into next weekend. Through the week, a relatively dry low-level airmass will settle east of the MS River and west of the Rockies, limiting the severe threat over the western and eastern third of the U.S. Some modest moisture return is likely across the Plains given lee troughing. However, upper support will be weak, which should limit the severe threat across the central U.S. as well. As such, no organized severe threats seem apparent for the CONUS Days 4-8 (Wednesday-Sunday).
..Squitieri.. 09/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, September 20
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Monday, September 21
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Tuesday, September 22
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Wednesday, September 23
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, September 24
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, September 25
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, September 26
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, September 27
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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