Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, September 28
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening across parts of western/northern South Dakota and vicinity.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 281958
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026
Valid 282000Z - 291200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening across parts of western/northern South Dakota and vicinity.
20z Update
Latest observations depict a corridor of stronger surface heating and less prevalent cloud cover in the vicinity of northwestern South Dakota, with surface temperatures noted to have warmed into the low/mid 70s F downstream of developing convection near the WY/SD border. Thus, the existing Level 1/Marginal risk was expanded slightly to the northwest with this outlook update. See recently issued MCD #2330 and the text below for additional information.
Elsewhere, the forecast remains generally on track, with only minor adjustments made to the general thunder area based on latest observational trends.
..Chalmers/Lyons.. 09/28/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026/
Northern Plains
Clouds and elevated thunderstorms remain prevalent late this morning across parts of the Dakotas. A narrow window for strong to locally severe thunderstorms may exist this afternoon/evening across parts of western/northern SD and vicinity as convection develops along/east of a weak surface trough. While lapse rates aloft should remain modest, filtered daytime heating with surface temperatures reaching the mid/upper 70s will probably be sufficient for robust thunderstorm development. A belt of modestly enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow will extend across the northern Rockies/Plains today, and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear should support updraft organization. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to initially form near the Black Hills by 20-22Z, and then spread east-northeastward along/near a surface front through the evening. The stronger cells may be capable of producing isolated hail and gusty winds, before convection tends to become elevated with eastward extent across northern SD/southern ND by late evening.
Lower Colorado River Valley
Showers and thunderstorms should develop this afternoon as an anomalously moist low-level airmass spreads northward ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough forecast to move from CA/NV to the lower CO River Valley through the period. Cloudiness and weak mid-level lapse rates should limit instability through early afternoon, before cloud cover gradually diminishes through early evening. A stronger thunderstorm or two may occur parts of interior southern CA/northwest AZ/southern NV, but the overall risk for severe hail/wind appears too limited to include any probabilities for this region at this time.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Tuesday, September 29
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe thunderstorm gusts and a couple of tornadoes will be possible Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday from southeast New Mexico into west Texas.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 281715
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY FROM SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe thunderstorm gusts and a couple of tornadoes will be possible Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday from southeast New Mexico into west Texas.
Southeast NM/west TX Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday
A midlevel low will move eastward over AZ/NM while the remnants of Hurricane Polo eject northeastward toward far west TX and southeast NM. An influx of midlevel moisture with the tropical system from the Pacific and low-level moisture from TX into NM will support increasing convection Tuesday afternoon into the overnight hours across NM and west TX. Lapse rates aloft will remain poor with the approach of the remnant tropical/warm core low, but moist profiles and substantial vertical shear with curved hodographs suggest the potential for at least isolated wind damage and possibly a couple of tornadoes with embedded supercells. The severe threat is expected to begin Tuesday afternoon across far west TX and southern NM and continue into Tuesday night/Wednesday morning across the southern High Plains.
..Thompson.. 09/28/2026
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Wednesday, September 30
Outlook Summary
A few damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across parts of the southern Great Plains.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 281925
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026
Valid 301200Z - 011200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA
### SUMMARY
A few damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across parts of the southern Great Plains.
Southern Plains
A midlevel closed low will move slowly eastward from NM to west TX with slow weakening by late Wednesday, while the prior remnants of Hurricane Polo will have ejected northeastward over the southern High Plains and dissipated by Wednesday morning. An associated lee cyclone will be maintained through the day, but also begin to fill by Wednesday night. This all suggests a slow downtrend in the mass response and associated wind profiles. Midlevel lapse rates will also remain modest given prior days clouds/rainfall muting surface heating across the southern Rockies.
In the wake of morning clouds/convection, there is the potential for a narrow zone of surface heating and destabilization along and east of the lee trough which could support additional thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening. Will maintain 5-15% severe probabilities though the overall synoptic evolution casts some doubt on both the coverage and magnitude of the wind/tornado threat.
..Thompson.. 09/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Thursday, October 1
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, October 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, October 2 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, October 3 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, October 4 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, October 5 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280856 SPC AC 280856
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Thursday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 5
On Thursday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move through the southern Plains. Ahead of the trough, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to be in place Thursday afternoon from central Texas north-northeastward into southwest Missouri. Thunderstorm development is expected along and near parts of the instability axis during the afternoon and evening. The area with the greatest potential for severe storms appears to be across central Texas, where current model forecast have moderate instability and moderate deep-layer juxtaposed. However, the favored corridor is forecast to be narrow, and there is some uncertainty concerning the placement of the instability axis. Severe wind gusts and hail will be possible with storms that form near the instability axis Thursday afternoon and evening.
Thunderstorms will again be possible ahead of the trough on Friday, from parts of the mid Mississippi Valley southwestward into the Ark-La-Tex. Along this corridor, an isolated severe threat will be possible with storms that develop near localized maximums of instability. However, deep-layer shear is forecast to be relatively weak, suggesting that any severe threat will remain marginal.
Saturday/Day 6 and Monday/Day 8
From Saturday to Monday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move from the northern Plains into the Northeast. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance southward from the Mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys to near the Gulf Coast. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible each day ahead of the front, with the greatest convective coverage in the Southeast. Deep-layer shear is expected to remain relatively weak across the moist sector, which should minimize the potential for severe storms.
..Broyles.. 09/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, October 2
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, October 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, October 2 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, October 3 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, October 4 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, October 5 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280856 SPC AC 280856
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Thursday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 5
On Thursday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move through the southern Plains. Ahead of the trough, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to be in place Thursday afternoon from central Texas north-northeastward into southwest Missouri. Thunderstorm development is expected along and near parts of the instability axis during the afternoon and evening. The area with the greatest potential for severe storms appears to be across central Texas, where current model forecast have moderate instability and moderate deep-layer juxtaposed. However, the favored corridor is forecast to be narrow, and there is some uncertainty concerning the placement of the instability axis. Severe wind gusts and hail will be possible with storms that form near the instability axis Thursday afternoon and evening.
Thunderstorms will again be possible ahead of the trough on Friday, from parts of the mid Mississippi Valley southwestward into the Ark-La-Tex. Along this corridor, an isolated severe threat will be possible with storms that develop near localized maximums of instability. However, deep-layer shear is forecast to be relatively weak, suggesting that any severe threat will remain marginal.
Saturday/Day 6 and Monday/Day 8
From Saturday to Monday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move from the northern Plains into the Northeast. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance southward from the Mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys to near the Gulf Coast. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible each day ahead of the front, with the greatest convective coverage in the Southeast. Deep-layer shear is expected to remain relatively weak across the moist sector, which should minimize the potential for severe storms.
..Broyles.. 09/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, October 3
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, October 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, October 2 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, October 3 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, October 4 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, October 5 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280856 SPC AC 280856
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Thursday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 5
On Thursday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move through the southern Plains. Ahead of the trough, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to be in place Thursday afternoon from central Texas north-northeastward into southwest Missouri. Thunderstorm development is expected along and near parts of the instability axis during the afternoon and evening. The area with the greatest potential for severe storms appears to be across central Texas, where current model forecast have moderate instability and moderate deep-layer juxtaposed. However, the favored corridor is forecast to be narrow, and there is some uncertainty concerning the placement of the instability axis. Severe wind gusts and hail will be possible with storms that form near the instability axis Thursday afternoon and evening.
Thunderstorms will again be possible ahead of the trough on Friday, from parts of the mid Mississippi Valley southwestward into the Ark-La-Tex. Along this corridor, an isolated severe threat will be possible with storms that develop near localized maximums of instability. However, deep-layer shear is forecast to be relatively weak, suggesting that any severe threat will remain marginal.
Saturday/Day 6 and Monday/Day 8
From Saturday to Monday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move from the northern Plains into the Northeast. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance southward from the Mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys to near the Gulf Coast. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible each day ahead of the front, with the greatest convective coverage in the Southeast. Deep-layer shear is expected to remain relatively weak across the moist sector, which should minimize the potential for severe storms.
..Broyles.. 09/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, October 4
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, October 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, October 2 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, October 3 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, October 4 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, October 5 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280856 SPC AC 280856
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Thursday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 5
On Thursday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move through the southern Plains. Ahead of the trough, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to be in place Thursday afternoon from central Texas north-northeastward into southwest Missouri. Thunderstorm development is expected along and near parts of the instability axis during the afternoon and evening. The area with the greatest potential for severe storms appears to be across central Texas, where current model forecast have moderate instability and moderate deep-layer juxtaposed. However, the favored corridor is forecast to be narrow, and there is some uncertainty concerning the placement of the instability axis. Severe wind gusts and hail will be possible with storms that form near the instability axis Thursday afternoon and evening.
Thunderstorms will again be possible ahead of the trough on Friday, from parts of the mid Mississippi Valley southwestward into the Ark-La-Tex. Along this corridor, an isolated severe threat will be possible with storms that develop near localized maximums of instability. However, deep-layer shear is forecast to be relatively weak, suggesting that any severe threat will remain marginal.
Saturday/Day 6 and Monday/Day 8
From Saturday to Monday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move from the northern Plains into the Northeast. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance southward from the Mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys to near the Gulf Coast. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible each day ahead of the front, with the greatest convective coverage in the Southeast. Deep-layer shear is expected to remain relatively weak across the moist sector, which should minimize the potential for severe storms.
..Broyles.. 09/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, October 5
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, October 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, October 2 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, October 3 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, October 4 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, October 5 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280856 SPC AC 280856
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Thursday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 5
On Thursday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move through the southern Plains. Ahead of the trough, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to be in place Thursday afternoon from central Texas north-northeastward into southwest Missouri. Thunderstorm development is expected along and near parts of the instability axis during the afternoon and evening. The area with the greatest potential for severe storms appears to be across central Texas, where current model forecast have moderate instability and moderate deep-layer juxtaposed. However, the favored corridor is forecast to be narrow, and there is some uncertainty concerning the placement of the instability axis. Severe wind gusts and hail will be possible with storms that form near the instability axis Thursday afternoon and evening.
Thunderstorms will again be possible ahead of the trough on Friday, from parts of the mid Mississippi Valley southwestward into the Ark-La-Tex. Along this corridor, an isolated severe threat will be possible with storms that develop near localized maximums of instability. However, deep-layer shear is forecast to be relatively weak, suggesting that any severe threat will remain marginal.
Saturday/Day 6 and Monday/Day 8
From Saturday to Monday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move from the northern Plains into the Northeast. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance southward from the Mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys to near the Gulf Coast. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible each day ahead of the front, with the greatest convective coverage in the Southeast. Deep-layer shear is expected to remain relatively weak across the moist sector, which should minimize the potential for severe storms.
..Broyles.. 09/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, September 28
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Tuesday, September 29
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Wednesday, September 30
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Thursday, October 1
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, October 2
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, October 3
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, October 4
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, October 5
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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