Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, May 8
Outlook Summary
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms with severe gusts and large hail are expected today over parts of the southern Appalachians, Tennessee Valley and Southeast. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. Severe gusts and large hail will also be possible in parts of the Rio Grande Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 080554
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS…TENNESSEE VALLEY…SOUTHEAST AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms with severe gusts and large hail are expected today over parts of the southern Appalachians, Tennessee Valley and Southeast. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. Severe gusts and large hail will also be possible in parts of the Rio Grande Valley.
Southern Appalachians/Tennessee Valley/Southeast
A positively-tilted mid-level trough, and an associated cold front, will move through the Ohio and mid Mississippi Valleys today. Surface dewpoints to the south of the front will range from the mid 50s to the mid 60s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, moderate instability is expected to develop across much of the moist airmass. A cluster of organized thunderstorms is forecast to develop in the afternoon from western and central Kentucky into middle Tennessee, and eastward into the southern Appalachians. This large cluster will move southeastward into northern Alabama, northern Georgia and the western Carolinas by late afternoon. RAP forecast soundings along the zone of maximum instability have 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 45 knot range, with 850 to 500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km. This environment will support the development of supercells with large hail, in areas where the storms can remain semi-discrete. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense supercells. In addition, forecast soundings show very steep low-level lapse exceeding 8 C/km, which will be supportive of damaging wind gusts.
Further to the south from parts of the Southeast into northern Florida, moderate instability is expected to develop during the afternoon in an airmass with surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F. In spite of weaker large-scale ascent, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in areas that heat up the most. 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 35 knot range and steep low-level lapse rates could support a marginal threat for severe gusts and hail during the mid to late afternoon.
Rio Grande Valley
A mid-level trough will move through northern Mexico today, as flow remains from the west across the southern Plains. Ahead of the trough, an axis of moderate instability will be in place across the Rio Grande Valley. As surface temperatures warm today, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain of northern Mexico, with convection spreading eastward into the Rio Grande Valley. Along much of the instability axis, forecast soundings by afternoon have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range, with 0-3 km lapse rates near or above 8 C/km. In addition, lapse rates are steep in the mid-levels. This environment should enable supercells to develop with a potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. The severe threat is expected to first develop in parts of west and southwest Texas in the early afternoon, gradually spreading southeastward into south-central and south Texas by late afternoon.
..Broyles/Moore.. 05/08/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Friday, May 9
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe thunderstorms, capable of damaging winds along with some hail, are possible across the Southeast States and southern Mid-Atlantic, mainly on Friday afternoon to early evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 080549
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe thunderstorms, capable of damaging winds along with some hail, are possible across the Southeast States and southern Mid-Atlantic, mainly on Friday afternoon to early evening.
Synopsis
A stronger upper-level trough in the Northeast will shear apart the elongated trough structure that has been present for the last few days in the East. A cutoff low will develop in the lower Mississippi Valley region. A diffuse surface cold front will be the primary focus for convection along with additional potential along the Gulf/Atlantic sea breeze boundaries in Florida. A belt of stronger mid-level winds near the Gulf/Atlantic coasts will promote modest storm organization.
Southeast Virginia into North Carolina
Mid-level ascent will be greater in these areas. With a weak surface low and front moving through, there could be a greater concentration of storms than farther south. Models are consistent with at least modest early day precipitation occurring along with lingering cloud cover. Depending on afternoon destabilization, there could be a locally greater corridor of wind/hail potential.
Southeast into eastern Florida Peninsula
Surface heating near a diffuse surface boundary (Atlantic sea breeze in Florida) will promote 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE by the afternoon. A belt of stronger mid-level winds across these areas will support at least isolated organized storms. Damaging winds will be possible and modest mid-level lapse rates will support some threat for large hail as well.
Florida Panhandle
Depending on the track of an MCV within the Gulf, surface heating and the Gulf breeze boundary will be potential triggers for convection during the afternoon. Shear will be modest (25-30 kts), but a few stronger storms may produce damaging winds or marginally severe hail. Should the MCV track closer to the shore, surface heating would be more limited, but isolated wind damage could occur with any linear segments associated with the MCV.
..Wendt.. 05/08/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Saturday, May 10
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible in parts of northern Florida and southern Georgia on Saturday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 080733
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE…NORTH FLORIDA…FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible in parts of northern Florida and southern Georgia on Saturday.
Synopsis
The cutoff upper low in the lower Mississippi Valley is forecast to retrograde westward on Saturday. A warm front will be roughly parallel to the Gulf Coast. Warm air advection across the warm front and subtle shortwave perturbations around the upper low will promote widespread precipitation in the central/eastern Gulf Coast regions. A trough will push into the Northwest and northern Rockies with strong mid-level winds moving into western Montana towards Sunday morning.
Florida Panhandle…North Florida…southern Georgia
Moderate southwesterly flow aloft will persist through the day. There will be concern for cloud cover from the convection to the west and within the Gulf itself. However, a plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates will extent into parts of central/northeast Florida. Where surface heating can occur, a few strong to severe storms are possible. Large hail and damaging winds would be the primary threats, but a tornado could occur near the warm front. Upper level winds will not be overly strong and shear will be focused from low to mid-levels. This will potentially lead to rain negatively impacting inflow of storms.
Southwest Montana
With the approach of mid-level shortwave trough, isolated convection will likely develop within the higher terrain. Moisture will be limited, but cold temperatures aloft will promote weak MLCAPE in some areas. A few strong to near-severe gusts could occur, but storm coverage/intensity does not currently warrant probabilities.
..Wendt.. 05/08/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Sunday, May 11
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, May 10 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Sunday, May 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, May 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, May 14 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070813 SPC AC 070813
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0313 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
From this weekend through early next week, an upper-level low will be situated in the lower Mississippi Valley into the northern Gulf. This feature will drive repeated days of convection within parts of the Southeast into the Florida Peninsula. Lower-end severe potential may occur with this activity, but how organized/intense it will be is not certain. The upper-level low will become more progressive and lift northeastward by the middle of next week. Shortwave ridging aloft will move through the Plains into the Southeast in advance of a western trough. With the presence of the upper low over the Gulf Coast region, there will be offshore flow in the western Gulf for a few days before moisture returns northward again in response to the mid-week trough.
The largest uncertainty with this system will be the moisture quality. Secondly, models currently project the strongest forcing to be within the central/northern Plains, farther away from the moisture plume moving north. At least as currently forecast, strong southwesterly/westerly winds aloft should overspread the southern/central Plains by late next week. This particular trend in guidance is recent and confidence is accordingly low, but model trends will continue to be monitored in the coming days.
..Wendt.. 05/07/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, May 12
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, May 10 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Sunday, May 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, May 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, May 14 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070813 SPC AC 070813
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0313 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
From this weekend through early next week, an upper-level low will be situated in the lower Mississippi Valley into the northern Gulf. This feature will drive repeated days of convection within parts of the Southeast into the Florida Peninsula. Lower-end severe potential may occur with this activity, but how organized/intense it will be is not certain. The upper-level low will become more progressive and lift northeastward by the middle of next week. Shortwave ridging aloft will move through the Plains into the Southeast in advance of a western trough. With the presence of the upper low over the Gulf Coast region, there will be offshore flow in the western Gulf for a few days before moisture returns northward again in response to the mid-week trough.
The largest uncertainty with this system will be the moisture quality. Secondly, models currently project the strongest forcing to be within the central/northern Plains, farther away from the moisture plume moving north. At least as currently forecast, strong southwesterly/westerly winds aloft should overspread the southern/central Plains by late next week. This particular trend in guidance is recent and confidence is accordingly low, but model trends will continue to be monitored in the coming days.
..Wendt.. 05/07/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, May 13
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, May 10 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Sunday, May 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, May 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, May 14 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070813 SPC AC 070813
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0313 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
From this weekend through early next week, an upper-level low will be situated in the lower Mississippi Valley into the northern Gulf. This feature will drive repeated days of convection within parts of the Southeast into the Florida Peninsula. Lower-end severe potential may occur with this activity, but how organized/intense it will be is not certain. The upper-level low will become more progressive and lift northeastward by the middle of next week. Shortwave ridging aloft will move through the Plains into the Southeast in advance of a western trough. With the presence of the upper low over the Gulf Coast region, there will be offshore flow in the western Gulf for a few days before moisture returns northward again in response to the mid-week trough.
The largest uncertainty with this system will be the moisture quality. Secondly, models currently project the strongest forcing to be within the central/northern Plains, farther away from the moisture plume moving north. At least as currently forecast, strong southwesterly/westerly winds aloft should overspread the southern/central Plains by late next week. This particular trend in guidance is recent and confidence is accordingly low, but model trends will continue to be monitored in the coming days.
..Wendt.. 05/07/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, May 14
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, May 10 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Sunday, May 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, May 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, May 14 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070813 SPC AC 070813
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0313 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
From this weekend through early next week, an upper-level low will be situated in the lower Mississippi Valley into the northern Gulf. This feature will drive repeated days of convection within parts of the Southeast into the Florida Peninsula. Lower-end severe potential may occur with this activity, but how organized/intense it will be is not certain. The upper-level low will become more progressive and lift northeastward by the middle of next week. Shortwave ridging aloft will move through the Plains into the Southeast in advance of a western trough. With the presence of the upper low over the Gulf Coast region, there will be offshore flow in the western Gulf for a few days before moisture returns northward again in response to the mid-week trough.
The largest uncertainty with this system will be the moisture quality. Secondly, models currently project the strongest forcing to be within the central/northern Plains, farther away from the moisture plume moving north. At least as currently forecast, strong southwesterly/westerly winds aloft should overspread the southern/central Plains by late next week. This particular trend in guidance is recent and confidence is accordingly low, but model trends will continue to be monitored in the coming days.
..Wendt.. 05/07/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, May 8
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Friday, May 9
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Saturday, May 10
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Sunday, May 11
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, May 12
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, May 13
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, May 14
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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