Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, June 22
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe storms appear possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast, mainly this afternoon and evening. Widely scattered severe storms are expected across the northern and central High Plains, with more isolated severe weather possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 220558
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC…THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS…AND ARKLATEX
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe storms appear possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast, mainly this afternoon and evening. Widely scattered severe storms are expected across the northern and central High Plains, with more isolated severe weather possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley.
Mid Atlantic into the Mid-South
A midlevel shortwave trough, including the remnant of a prominent MCV, is forecast to move from parts of the Upper OH Valley toward the Northeast and Mid Atlantic later today. While most guidance suggests some dampening of this shortwave trough with time, some flow enhancement will persist within the 850-500 mb layer in the wake of this shortwave across parts of the Mid Atlantic and central/southern Appalachians. Scattered storm development is expected by early/mid afternoon within a moist and moderately unstable environment. Initial development is expected to evolve into forward propagating storm clusters with a threat of damaging winds through the afternoon into the early evening. As convection intercepts a northward-moving warm front across the Mid Atlantic, locally backed flow may support development of at least transient supercells, with some tornado potential.
Farther southwest, an MCV is expected to emerge from a morning MCS over the southern Plains and move eastward toward the Mid-South region through the afternoon. As this MCV moves through a very warm/moist and moderately buoyant environment, storm development is expected both along the MCV track, and also in the wake of the MCV along a trailing cold front. Damaging winds will be possible with the strongest cells/clusters. Guidance varies somewhat regarding the strength of low-level shear/SRH enhancement associated with the MCV, but some tornado potential could also evolve through the afternoon into early evening.
Central/northern High Plains
Scattered storm development is expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern High Plains, within a relatively moist and moderately unstable environment. Steep midlevel lapse rates and sufficient deep-layer shear will support potential for supercells with large to very large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado or two. Modest upscale growth cannot be ruled out during the evening, though most guidance does not depict organized MCS development at this time.
Southern Plains/ArkLaTex region
The remnant of a vigorous MCS will likely be ongoing at the start of the period from north TX into the ArkLaTex region. Some severe threat could accompany this system at the beginning of the period, though a general weakening trend is expected through the morning. Isolated redevelopment will be possible along the remnant outflow into early evening, with an increase in storm coverage expected late tonight. Localized wind damage could accompany any of this redevelopment, though generally modest deep-layer shear will tend to limit a more organized severe threat.
..Dean/Squitieri.. 06/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Tuesday, June 23
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe storms are expected across the central High Plains on Tuesday with isolated severe storms possible into the Upper Mississippi Valley. Large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 220558
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe storms are expected across the central High Plains on Tuesday with isolated severe storms possible into the Upper Mississippi Valley. Large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats.
Synopsis
An upper low initially over southern Canada will shift into the northern Plains with a belt of 40-50+ kt mid-level flow forecast across the northern and central Plains into the upper Midwest. In the low levels, an area of low pressure is forecast to develop from the northern Plains into upper MS Valley with a trailing boundary extending southwest into the central High Plains. Elsewhere, a cold front will move off the Mid-Atlantic Coast with the trailing extension of the boundary moving into the Southeast.
Central High Plains into the Central/Southern Plains
As mid-level flow strengthens across the Rockies, a lee cyclone will develop across eastern Colorado and result in strengthening upslope flow. Moderate to strong instability is expected within this zone. This instability, combined with nearly 50 knots of mid-level flow, will result in a supercell environment. Large to very large hail will be the primary threat from this activity. Eventual upscale growth into a cluster is expected, and a potential bowing MCS across western Kansas and potentially northern Oklahoma should result in an increasing severe wind threat during the evening and into the early overnight hours.
Portions of the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest
Some elevated storms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period from northern Nebraska into southeast South Dakota on the nose of a modest low-level jet. These storms could pose some large hail threat. Additional storms may develop along the front during the afternoon. Strong mid-level flow will result in adequate shear for storm organization, but instability may be the primary limiting factor. Extensive cloud cover may limit heating, but at least some pockets of greater destabilization are possible. Within these areas, a threat for isolated large hail may exist.
Southeast
A few strong storms capable of gusty winds appear possible Tuesday afternoon along and ahead of the synoptic front from the Gulf Coast to the eastern Carolinas. Poor lapse rates will be the primary limiting factor for damaging wind gusts. However, as the event gets closer and details regarding instability and frontal position become more clear, wind probabilities may be warranted.
..Bentley.. 06/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Wednesday, June 24
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe storms are likely across the central High Plains on Wednesday with a threat for large to very large hail.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 220729
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe storms are likely across the central High Plains on Wednesday with a threat for large to very large hail.
Synopsis
Persistent moderate to strong mid-level west-northwesterly mid-level flow is forecast across the central High Plains on Wednesday. The surface pattern will be rather nebulous with a weak surface low in the Midwest and high pressure in its wake across the Plains.
Central High Plains to the Ozarks
An ongoing MCS at the beginning of the period may have some severe risk through the morning hours across Oklahoma/southern Kansas and into the Ozarks. Expect this MCS to weaken by mid-day as the low-level jet weakens and it outruns the stronger mid-level flow.
High pressure across the Plains will result in strengthening upslope flow across the central High Plains. Strong instability is forecast from northeast New Mexico to southeast Wyoming beneath the moderate to strong mid-level flow. This environment will support supercells capable of large to very large hail. For now have kept the threat mostly confined to the High Plains where the supercell threat is most likely. The low-level jet response across the Plains is not that strong Wednesday night and thus, upscale growth into an MCS is unclear. If a MCS becomes more likely, the Slight Risk would need to be expanded eastward in later outlooks.
..Bentley.. 06/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Thursday, June 25
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, June 24 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Thursday, June 25 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Friday, June 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, June 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, June 28 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210811 SPC AC 210811
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday - Central High Plains
As high pressure builds into the central/northern Plains on Wednesday and Thursday, upslope flow will remain persistent across eastern Colorado and eastern Wyoming. Moderate to strong instability is expected in this area with 40 to 50 knots of west-northwesterly flow aloft. This should result in a favorable upslope regime capable of supercells. A relatively narrow unstable corridor should keep the most favorable severe threat somewhat confined to the higher elevation prairies where instability and upslope flow will be maximized.
Friday and Saturday, ridging is forecast to translate east across the Plains, which may lead to a relative lull in severe weather threat. However, by Sunday and into early next week, there is a strong signal for troughing and moderate to strong mid-level flow across the northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest. Several days of substantial severe weather are possible during this period. However, at this time, the timing and amplitude of these features make it challenging to highlight specific areas. As the evolution of this mid-level pattern becomes more clear, severe weather probabilities may be added in later outlooks.
..Bentley.. 06/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, June 26
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, June 24 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Thursday, June 25 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Friday, June 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, June 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, June 28 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210811 SPC AC 210811
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday - Central High Plains
As high pressure builds into the central/northern Plains on Wednesday and Thursday, upslope flow will remain persistent across eastern Colorado and eastern Wyoming. Moderate to strong instability is expected in this area with 40 to 50 knots of west-northwesterly flow aloft. This should result in a favorable upslope regime capable of supercells. A relatively narrow unstable corridor should keep the most favorable severe threat somewhat confined to the higher elevation prairies where instability and upslope flow will be maximized.
Friday and Saturday, ridging is forecast to translate east across the Plains, which may lead to a relative lull in severe weather threat. However, by Sunday and into early next week, there is a strong signal for troughing and moderate to strong mid-level flow across the northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest. Several days of substantial severe weather are possible during this period. However, at this time, the timing and amplitude of these features make it challenging to highlight specific areas. As the evolution of this mid-level pattern becomes more clear, severe weather probabilities may be added in later outlooks.
..Bentley.. 06/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, June 27
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, June 24 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Thursday, June 25 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Friday, June 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, June 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, June 28 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210811 SPC AC 210811
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday - Central High Plains
As high pressure builds into the central/northern Plains on Wednesday and Thursday, upslope flow will remain persistent across eastern Colorado and eastern Wyoming. Moderate to strong instability is expected in this area with 40 to 50 knots of west-northwesterly flow aloft. This should result in a favorable upslope regime capable of supercells. A relatively narrow unstable corridor should keep the most favorable severe threat somewhat confined to the higher elevation prairies where instability and upslope flow will be maximized.
Friday and Saturday, ridging is forecast to translate east across the Plains, which may lead to a relative lull in severe weather threat. However, by Sunday and into early next week, there is a strong signal for troughing and moderate to strong mid-level flow across the northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest. Several days of substantial severe weather are possible during this period. However, at this time, the timing and amplitude of these features make it challenging to highlight specific areas. As the evolution of this mid-level pattern becomes more clear, severe weather probabilities may be added in later outlooks.
..Bentley.. 06/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, June 28
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, June 24 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Thursday, June 25 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Friday, June 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, June 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, June 28 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210811 SPC AC 210811
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday - Central High Plains
As high pressure builds into the central/northern Plains on Wednesday and Thursday, upslope flow will remain persistent across eastern Colorado and eastern Wyoming. Moderate to strong instability is expected in this area with 40 to 50 knots of west-northwesterly flow aloft. This should result in a favorable upslope regime capable of supercells. A relatively narrow unstable corridor should keep the most favorable severe threat somewhat confined to the higher elevation prairies where instability and upslope flow will be maximized.
Friday and Saturday, ridging is forecast to translate east across the Plains, which may lead to a relative lull in severe weather threat. However, by Sunday and into early next week, there is a strong signal for troughing and moderate to strong mid-level flow across the northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest. Several days of substantial severe weather are possible during this period. However, at this time, the timing and amplitude of these features make it challenging to highlight specific areas. As the evolution of this mid-level pattern becomes more clear, severe weather probabilities may be added in later outlooks.
..Bentley.. 06/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, June 22
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Tuesday, June 23
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Wednesday, June 24
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Thursday, June 25
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Friday, June 26
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, June 27
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, June 28
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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