Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, January 22
Outlook Summary
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Florida today, but severe thunderstorms are not expected.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 221230
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026
Valid 221300Z - 231200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Florida today, but severe thunderstorms are not expected.
Synopsis and Discussion
Surface high pressure will remain dominant today across much of the Plains into the MS/OH Valleys amid persistent upper troughing over the central/eastern CONUS. As such, overall thunderstorm potential should remain generally low, with perhaps a couple exceptions. Isolated thunderstorms appear possible across parts of coastal/southeast FL along/near a weak inverted surface trough amid greater low-level moisture and modest buoyancy.
An upper low over the eastern Pacific should develop south-southeastward through the period off the coast of southern CA/northern Baja. Cool temperatures aloft may support weak MUCAPE and very isolated lightning flashes with convection that should remain mostly offshore this afternoon. Overall coverage of thunderstorms appears less than 10% across coastal southern CA.
..Gleason/Dean.. 01/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Friday, January 23
Outlook Summary
Isolated weak thunderstorm activity is possible Friday afternoon into Friday night across parts of central Texas.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 220605
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated weak thunderstorm activity is possible Friday afternoon into Friday night across parts of central Texas.
Synopsis
An upper low and attendant shortwave trough off the southern CA/northern Baja coasts Friday morning will develop east toward northwest Mexico and lower CO Valley by Saturday morning. As this occurs, increasing midlevel moisture will spread northeast across the southern Plains as an arctic cold front dives southward across OK/TX. As forcing for ascent increases Friday afternoon into the overnight hours, mainly wintry precipitation is expected across OK and the northern half of TX. Near and to the south of the arctic cold front, sufficient low-level moisture will be in place to support modest instability, especially as midlevel temperatures cool. This could result in isolated thunderstorms near the southward-surging cold front, or within the transition zone just to the cool side of the boundary where sleet and freezing rain are possible.
..Leitman.. 01/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Saturday, January 24
Outlook Summary
Isolated weak thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday and Saturday night across portions of eastern Texas into Louisiana and southern Mississippi.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 220722
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated weak thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday and Saturday night across portions of eastern Texas into Louisiana and southern Mississippi.
Synopsis
An arctic cold front will continue to develop southeast across the western and central Gulf Coast vicinity on Saturday. Warm advection atop the boundary and cooling aloft will support modest instability. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible in the vicinity of the front from the Upper Texas Coast into southern LA. Some thunderstorm potential may even accompany convective elements within wintry precipitation to the cold side of the surface front. Severe storms are not expected.
..Leitman.. 01/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Sunday, January 25
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, January 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, January 26 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, January 27 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, January 28 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, January 29 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220855 SPC AC 220855
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
A surface low over the Deep South on Day 4/Sunday morning will develop east/northeast through early Monday, moving offshore the Carolinas coast. As this occurs, an arctic cold front will continue to push southeast across the Southeast U.S. Ahead of the front, modified Gulf moisture will be in place, supporting weak instability. As an upper trough approaches, large-scale ascent and warm advection atop the surface front will support isolated thunderstorms across southern MS/AL into northern FL and southern GA. Modest instability and poor lapse rates should limit severe potential within the warm sector.
By Day 5/Monday, the cold front will have moved well offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts and an arctic airmass will envelop much of the CONUS. Mean troughing is forecast to persist, allowing reinforcing shots of colder air to filter southward east of the Rockies and preclude any return flow across the Gulf basin.
..Leitman.. 01/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, January 26
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, January 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, January 26 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, January 27 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, January 28 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, January 29 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220855 SPC AC 220855
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
A surface low over the Deep South on Day 4/Sunday morning will develop east/northeast through early Monday, moving offshore the Carolinas coast. As this occurs, an arctic cold front will continue to push southeast across the Southeast U.S. Ahead of the front, modified Gulf moisture will be in place, supporting weak instability. As an upper trough approaches, large-scale ascent and warm advection atop the surface front will support isolated thunderstorms across southern MS/AL into northern FL and southern GA. Modest instability and poor lapse rates should limit severe potential within the warm sector.
By Day 5/Monday, the cold front will have moved well offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts and an arctic airmass will envelop much of the CONUS. Mean troughing is forecast to persist, allowing reinforcing shots of colder air to filter southward east of the Rockies and preclude any return flow across the Gulf basin.
..Leitman.. 01/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, January 27
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, January 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, January 26 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, January 27 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, January 28 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, January 29 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220855 SPC AC 220855
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
A surface low over the Deep South on Day 4/Sunday morning will develop east/northeast through early Monday, moving offshore the Carolinas coast. As this occurs, an arctic cold front will continue to push southeast across the Southeast U.S. Ahead of the front, modified Gulf moisture will be in place, supporting weak instability. As an upper trough approaches, large-scale ascent and warm advection atop the surface front will support isolated thunderstorms across southern MS/AL into northern FL and southern GA. Modest instability and poor lapse rates should limit severe potential within the warm sector.
By Day 5/Monday, the cold front will have moved well offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts and an arctic airmass will envelop much of the CONUS. Mean troughing is forecast to persist, allowing reinforcing shots of colder air to filter southward east of the Rockies and preclude any return flow across the Gulf basin.
..Leitman.. 01/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, January 28
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, January 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, January 26 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, January 27 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, January 28 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, January 29 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220855 SPC AC 220855
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
A surface low over the Deep South on Day 4/Sunday morning will develop east/northeast through early Monday, moving offshore the Carolinas coast. As this occurs, an arctic cold front will continue to push southeast across the Southeast U.S. Ahead of the front, modified Gulf moisture will be in place, supporting weak instability. As an upper trough approaches, large-scale ascent and warm advection atop the surface front will support isolated thunderstorms across southern MS/AL into northern FL and southern GA. Modest instability and poor lapse rates should limit severe potential within the warm sector.
By Day 5/Monday, the cold front will have moved well offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts and an arctic airmass will envelop much of the CONUS. Mean troughing is forecast to persist, allowing reinforcing shots of colder air to filter southward east of the Rockies and preclude any return flow across the Gulf basin.
..Leitman.. 01/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, January 29
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, January 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, January 26 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, January 27 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, January 28 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, January 29 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220855 SPC AC 220855
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
A surface low over the Deep South on Day 4/Sunday morning will develop east/northeast through early Monday, moving offshore the Carolinas coast. As this occurs, an arctic cold front will continue to push southeast across the Southeast U.S. Ahead of the front, modified Gulf moisture will be in place, supporting weak instability. As an upper trough approaches, large-scale ascent and warm advection atop the surface front will support isolated thunderstorms across southern MS/AL into northern FL and southern GA. Modest instability and poor lapse rates should limit severe potential within the warm sector.
By Day 5/Monday, the cold front will have moved well offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts and an arctic airmass will envelop much of the CONUS. Mean troughing is forecast to persist, allowing reinforcing shots of colder air to filter southward east of the Rockies and preclude any return flow across the Gulf basin.
..Leitman.. 01/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, January 22
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Friday, January 23
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Saturday, January 24
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Sunday, January 25
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, January 26
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, January 27
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, January 28
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, January 29
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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