Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Sunday, July 12

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated to scattered severe/damaging winds may still occur this afternoon/evening across parts of the Carolinas/Southeast into the southern Plains, and separately over southern/central Arizona. Large hail and severe winds also remain possible over portions of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 122000

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Valid 122000Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN GEORGIA INTO SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA…SOUTHERN ARIZONA…AND PARTS OF UPPER MICHIGAN

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated to scattered severe/damaging winds may still occur this afternoon/evening across parts of the Carolinas/Southeast into the southern Plains, and separately over southern/central Arizona. Large hail and severe winds also remain possible over portions of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.

20Z Update

The previous forecast (see below) remains primarily on track. The Slight risk wind probabilities were extended southwestward into GA to account for loosely organized bands of convection approaching a boundary layer supportive of efficient evaporative cooling and subsequent damaging gust potential from downbursts. Across the Upper Great Lakes, some westward trimming of thunder/severe probabilities was done since better forcing for ascent (e.g. WAA) is expected to remain placed north and east over Ontario. Lastly, conditional intensity level 1 (CIG1) was introduced across southern AZ, where confidence is relatively higher in one of the stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts potentially producing a severe gust in the 75-85 mph range. Otherwise, only minor adjustments were made to thunder and severe probabilities to reflect the latest observations and guidance consensus.

..Squitieri.. 07/12/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026/

Carolinas/Southeast into the Southern Plains

Midday visible-satellite imagery shows an agitated cumulus field over north-central GA to the south of a differential heating zone/weak front draped across the southern Appalachians and west to east across the Carolinas. Surface temperatures will continue to warm into the 90s F south of the more prevalent cloud cover over the Upstate of SC and western/central NC. Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop in several clusters across the Southeast with strong to locally severe gusts capable of wind damage being the primary hazard. Farther west, more widely spaced clusters will likely develop over the central Gulf Coast states into the Ark-La-Tex region. Locally damaging gusts will be possible with the stronger thunderstorms.

Into parts of the southern High Plains, a seasonably moist boundary layer will become moderately unstable by mid afternoon. Steep 0-3 km lapse rates will favor isolated severe gusts with the stronger downdrafts. Considered a small Slight Risk over the TX South Plains but some uncertainty regarding storm coverage precluded higher severe probabilities this outlook update.

Upper Midwest/Great Lakes

Northwest-flow regime will maintain a plume of elevated mixed layer air atop a moist low-level airmass. It is uncertain whether additional storm development will occur this afternoon in association with a morning cluster of strong to severe storms over parts of the U.P. Nonetheless, sufficient shear/buoyancy for supercells and organized storms structures lends a continued conditional risk for severe storms into this evening/tonight. Some guidance shows an eventual outflow-dominant cluster moving into parts of the region tonight, with some potential for damaging gusts. ### Arizona

Very strong heating will again yield a hot and well-mixed boundary layer by mid afternoon. Isolated to scattered storms are forecast to develop on the Rim and gradually propagate into the lower desert, aided by moderate easterly mid-level flow (30-kt at 500 mb sampled by the 12 UTC Phoenix raob). Strong evaporative cooling of the more water-laden downdrafts will be capable of severe gusts (60-75 mph).

Montana

A weak front along with very strong heating may suffice for a few high-based thunderstorms to develop late this afternoon across north-central MT. Very steep low to mid-level lapse rates and deep inverted-V profiles imply some potential for severe gusts with the stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts.

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

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Outlook for Monday, July 13

Outlook Summary

A few strong-to-severe storms will be possible from South Carolina into central Georgia and far North Florida on Monday. Additional isolated severe storms are possible in southwestern Montana.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 121717

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN PARTS OF EASTERN GEORGIA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA…AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA

### SUMMARY

A few strong-to-severe storms will be possible from South Carolina into central Georgia and far North Florida on Monday. Additional isolated severe storms are possible in southwestern Montana.

Synopsis

Upper-level ridging will continue to build across the CONUS on Monday. Strong cyclonic flow will exist across the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. A weak upper-level low will be present in the Tennessee Valley/southern Appalachians. A stalled surface boundary will be draped across the southern Plains into the Carolinas.

Georgia/South Carolina

A stalled surface boundary will continue to be the focus for convection on Monday. Surface heating is expected to be less than previous days. Even so, a weak upper low will bring subtle lift/flow enhancement near the surface boundary. Overall storm organization will be low. That said, around 20 kt of shear near the boundary, large PWAT values, and scattered/numerous storms will promote a risk of water-loaded downdrafts capable of isolated wind damage.

Southwest Montana

Model trends have suggested that sufficient moisture/destabilization will be in place by late afternoon into the evening. Isolated to widely scattered storms are expected to develop within the higher terrain and move quickly northeastward. Temperatures in the upper 80s/low 90s F and inverted-v thermodynamic profiles will support a risk for severe winds.

Arizona

Temperatures are expected to be cooler on Monday on account of the impacts of weekend convection. Coupled with weaker and slightly more southwesterly mid-level winds, it is not clear how much strong to potentially severe activity will be able to move off of the Mogollon Rim during the afternoon/evening. A stronger storm or two could produce gusty outflow winds where greater heating can occur, but this activity should be much more spatially limited than previous days.

..Wendt.. 07/12/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, July 14

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and evening across portions of New England on Tuesday. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of western and central Montana.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 121934

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and evening across portions of New England on Tuesday. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of western and central Montana.

New England

A strong shortwave trough is expected to move into the region during the evening. The strongest forcing for ascent will likely arrive after dark. Still, low-level moistening will promote moderate to strong buoyancy even into the evening (1500-2500 J/kg MUCAPE). 50-60 kt of 0-6 km shear will promote organized convection capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. A conditional tornado threat will also exist with any supercell structures that can remain surface based.

Montana

Moderate to strong mid-level cyclonic flow will continue within the northern Rockies. An increase in low/mid-level moisture is expected as compared to previous days. A shortwave trough coupled with at least modest heating within the higher terrain will promote widely scattered to scattered storms. With an increase in cloud cover expected, it is not clear whether storms will be surface based. Severe wind gusts and marginally severe hail are possible with the strongest storms.

..Wendt.. 07/12/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, July 15

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120900 SPC AC 120900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

An expansive mid-level ridge centered over the north-central US will continue to retrograde during the early part of the forecast period, before becoming centered over the Rockies toward the end of the upcoming week. A seasonably strong mid-level trough will be positioned over northern Quebec, positioning strong northwesterly flow from the Upper Midwest southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and areas to the northeast. A combination of deterministic and ensemble forecast solutions, including AI emulators, show one or more short-wave troughs or jet streaks moving through this enhanced flow field.

The position of these mid-level features will help drive a surface front southward across the eastern US that will stretch from somewhere in the central/north-central US into the Mid-Atlantic. To the north of this boundary, a seasonably cool, dry airmass should be found. Along and south of this surface boundary, a very warm, moist, and unstable airmass will be found.

As the aforementioned short-wave troughs move through the enhanced mid-level flow, one or more rounds of thunderstorms/mesoscale convective systems are likely to develop and move east/southeast. Ensemble guidance continues to show a very unstable airmass (MUCAPE in excess of 2000-3000 J/kg) along and south of where the surface boundary resides, with strong vertical shear. The overall pattern would seem to suggest multiple rounds/days of severe potential, with prior days' convection likely modulating the where and intensity of subsequent days' convection.

Given these sensitivities to prior days' convection, there will likely be run-to-run variability within the deterministic guidance suite as we approach the latter half of next week. Thus, while confidence is high in severe potential during the Day 4-8 period (and perhaps beyond), highlighting specific locations and days of severe potential will prove challenging, with likely areas changing from model run-to-run.

### Friday/Day 6 – Mid-Atlantic Region

This evening's deterministic guidance suite (20260712 00 UTC), along with yesterday morning's deterministic guidance suite (20260711 12 UTC), is faster moving the surface boundary south than last night's guidance suite (20260711 00 UTC). However, the overall ensemble guidance continues to suggest severe potential across the region, owing to differences in the position of the surface boundary and the timing of mid-level vorticity maxima. Severe probabilities (15%) have been retained with this forecast in a nod to the ensemble guidance suite, but if the current trend of pushing the surface boundary farther south on Thursday (Day 5) continues, severe weather probabilities may need to be removed as the surface boundary will push south of the better deep-layer shear.

..Marsh.. 07/12/2026

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Outlook for Thursday, July 16

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120900 SPC AC 120900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

An expansive mid-level ridge centered over the north-central US will continue to retrograde during the early part of the forecast period, before becoming centered over the Rockies toward the end of the upcoming week. A seasonably strong mid-level trough will be positioned over northern Quebec, positioning strong northwesterly flow from the Upper Midwest southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and areas to the northeast. A combination of deterministic and ensemble forecast solutions, including AI emulators, show one or more short-wave troughs or jet streaks moving through this enhanced flow field.

The position of these mid-level features will help drive a surface front southward across the eastern US that will stretch from somewhere in the central/north-central US into the Mid-Atlantic. To the north of this boundary, a seasonably cool, dry airmass should be found. Along and south of this surface boundary, a very warm, moist, and unstable airmass will be found.

As the aforementioned short-wave troughs move through the enhanced mid-level flow, one or more rounds of thunderstorms/mesoscale convective systems are likely to develop and move east/southeast. Ensemble guidance continues to show a very unstable airmass (MUCAPE in excess of 2000-3000 J/kg) along and south of where the surface boundary resides, with strong vertical shear. The overall pattern would seem to suggest multiple rounds/days of severe potential, with prior days' convection likely modulating the where and intensity of subsequent days' convection.

Given these sensitivities to prior days' convection, there will likely be run-to-run variability within the deterministic guidance suite as we approach the latter half of next week. Thus, while confidence is high in severe potential during the Day 4-8 period (and perhaps beyond), highlighting specific locations and days of severe potential will prove challenging, with likely areas changing from model run-to-run.

### Friday/Day 6 – Mid-Atlantic Region

This evening's deterministic guidance suite (20260712 00 UTC), along with yesterday morning's deterministic guidance suite (20260711 12 UTC), is faster moving the surface boundary south than last night's guidance suite (20260711 00 UTC). However, the overall ensemble guidance continues to suggest severe potential across the region, owing to differences in the position of the surface boundary and the timing of mid-level vorticity maxima. Severe probabilities (15%) have been retained with this forecast in a nod to the ensemble guidance suite, but if the current trend of pushing the surface boundary farther south on Thursday (Day 5) continues, severe weather probabilities may need to be removed as the surface boundary will push south of the better deep-layer shear.

..Marsh.. 07/12/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Friday, July 17

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120900 SPC AC 120900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

An expansive mid-level ridge centered over the north-central US will continue to retrograde during the early part of the forecast period, before becoming centered over the Rockies toward the end of the upcoming week. A seasonably strong mid-level trough will be positioned over northern Quebec, positioning strong northwesterly flow from the Upper Midwest southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and areas to the northeast. A combination of deterministic and ensemble forecast solutions, including AI emulators, show one or more short-wave troughs or jet streaks moving through this enhanced flow field.

The position of these mid-level features will help drive a surface front southward across the eastern US that will stretch from somewhere in the central/north-central US into the Mid-Atlantic. To the north of this boundary, a seasonably cool, dry airmass should be found. Along and south of this surface boundary, a very warm, moist, and unstable airmass will be found.

As the aforementioned short-wave troughs move through the enhanced mid-level flow, one or more rounds of thunderstorms/mesoscale convective systems are likely to develop and move east/southeast. Ensemble guidance continues to show a very unstable airmass (MUCAPE in excess of 2000-3000 J/kg) along and south of where the surface boundary resides, with strong vertical shear. The overall pattern would seem to suggest multiple rounds/days of severe potential, with prior days' convection likely modulating the where and intensity of subsequent days' convection.

Given these sensitivities to prior days' convection, there will likely be run-to-run variability within the deterministic guidance suite as we approach the latter half of next week. Thus, while confidence is high in severe potential during the Day 4-8 period (and perhaps beyond), highlighting specific locations and days of severe potential will prove challenging, with likely areas changing from model run-to-run.

### Friday/Day 6 – Mid-Atlantic Region

This evening's deterministic guidance suite (20260712 00 UTC), along with yesterday morning's deterministic guidance suite (20260711 12 UTC), is faster moving the surface boundary south than last night's guidance suite (20260711 00 UTC). However, the overall ensemble guidance continues to suggest severe potential across the region, owing to differences in the position of the surface boundary and the timing of mid-level vorticity maxima. Severe probabilities (15%) have been retained with this forecast in a nod to the ensemble guidance suite, but if the current trend of pushing the surface boundary farther south on Thursday (Day 5) continues, severe weather probabilities may need to be removed as the surface boundary will push south of the better deep-layer shear.

..Marsh.. 07/12/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, July 18

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120900 SPC AC 120900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

An expansive mid-level ridge centered over the north-central US will continue to retrograde during the early part of the forecast period, before becoming centered over the Rockies toward the end of the upcoming week. A seasonably strong mid-level trough will be positioned over northern Quebec, positioning strong northwesterly flow from the Upper Midwest southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and areas to the northeast. A combination of deterministic and ensemble forecast solutions, including AI emulators, show one or more short-wave troughs or jet streaks moving through this enhanced flow field.

The position of these mid-level features will help drive a surface front southward across the eastern US that will stretch from somewhere in the central/north-central US into the Mid-Atlantic. To the north of this boundary, a seasonably cool, dry airmass should be found. Along and south of this surface boundary, a very warm, moist, and unstable airmass will be found.

As the aforementioned short-wave troughs move through the enhanced mid-level flow, one or more rounds of thunderstorms/mesoscale convective systems are likely to develop and move east/southeast. Ensemble guidance continues to show a very unstable airmass (MUCAPE in excess of 2000-3000 J/kg) along and south of where the surface boundary resides, with strong vertical shear. The overall pattern would seem to suggest multiple rounds/days of severe potential, with prior days' convection likely modulating the where and intensity of subsequent days' convection.

Given these sensitivities to prior days' convection, there will likely be run-to-run variability within the deterministic guidance suite as we approach the latter half of next week. Thus, while confidence is high in severe potential during the Day 4-8 period (and perhaps beyond), highlighting specific locations and days of severe potential will prove challenging, with likely areas changing from model run-to-run.

### Friday/Day 6 – Mid-Atlantic Region

This evening's deterministic guidance suite (20260712 00 UTC), along with yesterday morning's deterministic guidance suite (20260711 12 UTC), is faster moving the surface boundary south than last night's guidance suite (20260711 00 UTC). However, the overall ensemble guidance continues to suggest severe potential across the region, owing to differences in the position of the surface boundary and the timing of mid-level vorticity maxima. Severe probabilities (15%) have been retained with this forecast in a nod to the ensemble guidance suite, but if the current trend of pushing the surface boundary farther south on Thursday (Day 5) continues, severe weather probabilities may need to be removed as the surface boundary will push south of the better deep-layer shear.

..Marsh.. 07/12/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, July 19

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120900 SPC AC 120900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

An expansive mid-level ridge centered over the north-central US will continue to retrograde during the early part of the forecast period, before becoming centered over the Rockies toward the end of the upcoming week. A seasonably strong mid-level trough will be positioned over northern Quebec, positioning strong northwesterly flow from the Upper Midwest southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and areas to the northeast. A combination of deterministic and ensemble forecast solutions, including AI emulators, show one or more short-wave troughs or jet streaks moving through this enhanced flow field.

The position of these mid-level features will help drive a surface front southward across the eastern US that will stretch from somewhere in the central/north-central US into the Mid-Atlantic. To the north of this boundary, a seasonably cool, dry airmass should be found. Along and south of this surface boundary, a very warm, moist, and unstable airmass will be found.

As the aforementioned short-wave troughs move through the enhanced mid-level flow, one or more rounds of thunderstorms/mesoscale convective systems are likely to develop and move east/southeast. Ensemble guidance continues to show a very unstable airmass (MUCAPE in excess of 2000-3000 J/kg) along and south of where the surface boundary resides, with strong vertical shear. The overall pattern would seem to suggest multiple rounds/days of severe potential, with prior days' convection likely modulating the where and intensity of subsequent days' convection.

Given these sensitivities to prior days' convection, there will likely be run-to-run variability within the deterministic guidance suite as we approach the latter half of next week. Thus, while confidence is high in severe potential during the Day 4-8 period (and perhaps beyond), highlighting specific locations and days of severe potential will prove challenging, with likely areas changing from model run-to-run.

### Friday/Day 6 – Mid-Atlantic Region

This evening's deterministic guidance suite (20260712 00 UTC), along with yesterday morning's deterministic guidance suite (20260711 12 UTC), is faster moving the surface boundary south than last night's guidance suite (20260711 00 UTC). However, the overall ensemble guidance continues to suggest severe potential across the region, owing to differences in the position of the surface boundary and the timing of mid-level vorticity maxima. Severe probabilities (15%) have been retained with this forecast in a nod to the ensemble guidance suite, but if the current trend of pushing the surface boundary farther south on Thursday (Day 5) continues, severe weather probabilities may need to be removed as the surface boundary will push south of the better deep-layer shear.

..Marsh.. 07/12/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Sunday, July 12

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Monday, July 13

TORNADO: low

HAIL: low

WIND: 5%

Tuesday, July 14

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Wednesday, July 15

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Thursday, July 16

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, July 17

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Saturday, July 18

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Sunday, July 19

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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