Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Monday, November 2

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are expected across parts of the southern and central Plains from this afternoon into tonight.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 020559

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 PM CST Sun Nov 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are expected across parts of the southern and central Plains from this afternoon into tonight.

Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks/Lower Missouri Valley

An upper-level trough will move across the southern Rockies today and into the southern High Plains. Ahead of the system, the exit region of a mid-level jet will overspread the southern and central Plains this afternoon and evening. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the central High Plains as a pre-frontal trough moves into the southern and central Plains. Ahead of this feature, moisture advection will take place with surface dewpoints gradually increasing into the mid to upper 60s F over much of Texas, Oklahoma and the eastern half of Kansas. Across the moist sector, RAP forecast soundings suggest that MLCAPE will only peak in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. As surface temperatures warm and low-level convergence becomes maximized near the pre-frontal trough in the afternoon, convective development will take place. Thunderstorms are expected to gradually increase in coverage from the afternoon into the early evening, as several line segments organize and move east-northeastward across the moist sector.

The convective mode is the main question for this event. It seems possible that the convection will line out quickly during the afternoon, and that discrete cell formation will be minimized. Even so, widespread large-scale ascent and strong deep-layer shear will likely support severe thunderstorm development with vigorous updrafts associated with organized lines and potentially semi-discrete supercells. The latest RAP forecast soundings from central Oklahoma north-northeastward into eastern Kansas suggest that 0-6 km shear will be around 50 knots. Although some directional shear is present, the stronger component will be speed increases with height in the low-levels. Near the axis of the low-level jet, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to peak in the 250 to 300 m2/s2 range. This will support a tornado threat with supercells and with rotating elements embedded in organized line segments. Severe wind gusts will also be possible with the more intense line segments, especially with bowing structures. A greater tornado threat could materialize across Oklahoma or southeast Kansas, if a cluster of discrete cells can persist into the late afternoon or early evening. A severe threat will continue throughout the evening as a larger-scale line segment moves eastward across the moist sector, reaching western Missouri and far eastern Oklahoma around midnight. Severe wind gusts and perhaps a QLCS tornado threat will be possible with this line.

Texas

Southwesterly cyclonic mid-level flow will be in place today across much of Texas, as an upper-level trough approaches. Ahead of the system, an axis of moderate instability will develop as surface temperatures warm. A capping inversion will be in place over much of Texas into afternoon. This cap will likely weaken during the mid afternoon, allowing for convective initiation over parts of west-central and northwest Texas. A convective band, with a mixed mode, is expected to form and move eastward into north-central Texas by early evening. Ahead of this forecast band by 00Z, surface dewpoints are expected to peak in the upper 60s F, with MLCAPE reaching the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range. This will be favorable for strong updrafts and scattered severe storms. The southeastern edge of the mid-level jet will create moderate deep-layer shear along the axis of instability. This will support supercell development with cells that can remain discrete. Intense line segments are also expected with cells that congeal. Severe wind gusts and a couple tornadoes will be possible during the late afternoon and early to mid evening. The greatest tornado threat should be concentrated in north-central Texas where low-level shear is maximized on the southern edge of the low-level jet.

..Broyles/Weinman.. 11/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, November 3

Outlook Summary

Scattered storms will occur from the Sabine and Lower Mississippi Valleys northward into the Mid Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. A few thunderstorms may produce damaging gusts, and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 020655

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CST Mon Nov 02 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EASTERN TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS

### SUMMARY

Scattered storms will occur from the Sabine and Lower Mississippi Valleys northward into the Mid Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. A few thunderstorms may produce damaging gusts, and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out.

Discussion

A highly amplified upper trough will move out of the Plains and toward the MS Valley on Tuesday, with moderate southerly winds aloft. Height falls will occur over MO and AR during the day, and into IL and western KY and TN overnight.

At the surface, low pressure will be located over southern MN, nearly stationary, with a front extending south across IA, MO, and into the Sabine Valley during the afternoon.

Southerly low-level winds with 30-40 kt at 850 mb will aid moisture transport, with mid 60s F dewpoints as far north as the Missouri Bootheel. Rain and thunderstorms will be ongoing along the front early, though a diurnal uptick in intensity is expected from the Sabine River into southern MO.

The primary mitigating factor on Tuesday will be widespread clouds, rain, and weak lapse rates ahead of the front. Still, at least isolated severe gusts, or a brief tornado or two may occur as shear profiles overall will favor rotation with storms along the front, or possible cells ahead of the front from LA into AR.

..Jewell.. 11/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, November 4

Outlook Summary

Severe storms are unlikely on Wednesday.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 020815

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CST Mon Nov 02 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Severe storms are unlikely on Wednesday.

Synopsis

An upper low will move from the Upper MS Valley to the Upper Great Lakes on Wednesday, with glancing height falls toward the Appalachians as a leading speed max aloft ejects northeastward out of the OH Valley. A surface low is forecast to move northward out of WI and toward Lake Superior, with a weak surface trough/winds shift pushing across the Upper OH and TN Valleys during the day.

While lift/upper support will be minimal over the Southeast, mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will support weak instability from AL into GA and eastern TN. Given the antecedent surface high over the Mid Atlantic, and departure of the upper system, waning large-scale support would suggest little severe weather risk. However, scattered general thunderstorms are likely near the front as it moves across KY/TN/AL/GA.

..Jewell.. 11/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Thursday, November 5

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010931 SPC AC 010931

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CST Sun Nov 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper trough will move from the MS Valley toward the OH Valley and Great Lakes on Wed/D4, with a secondary trough moving across the Four Corners and into the Southern Plains. An occluded surface low will also move across the upper Great Lakes, with a cold front moving across the OH/TN Valleys and toward the Appalachians. While low-level moisture will support rain and thunderstorms along this front, the lifting of the upper system and weak instability will result in decreasing severe risk. This weakening trend should continue into Thu/D5 as the front moves across the Mid Atlantic and off the East Coast. Behind these systems, the pattern will favor high pressure and minimal chances of thunderstorms.

..Jewell.. 11/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Friday, November 6

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010931 SPC AC 010931

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CST Sun Nov 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper trough will move from the MS Valley toward the OH Valley and Great Lakes on Wed/D4, with a secondary trough moving across the Four Corners and into the Southern Plains. An occluded surface low will also move across the upper Great Lakes, with a cold front moving across the OH/TN Valleys and toward the Appalachians. While low-level moisture will support rain and thunderstorms along this front, the lifting of the upper system and weak instability will result in decreasing severe risk. This weakening trend should continue into Thu/D5 as the front moves across the Mid Atlantic and off the East Coast. Behind these systems, the pattern will favor high pressure and minimal chances of thunderstorms.

..Jewell.. 11/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, November 7

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010931 SPC AC 010931

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CST Sun Nov 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper trough will move from the MS Valley toward the OH Valley and Great Lakes on Wed/D4, with a secondary trough moving across the Four Corners and into the Southern Plains. An occluded surface low will also move across the upper Great Lakes, with a cold front moving across the OH/TN Valleys and toward the Appalachians. While low-level moisture will support rain and thunderstorms along this front, the lifting of the upper system and weak instability will result in decreasing severe risk. This weakening trend should continue into Thu/D5 as the front moves across the Mid Atlantic and off the East Coast. Behind these systems, the pattern will favor high pressure and minimal chances of thunderstorms.

..Jewell.. 11/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, November 8

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010931 SPC AC 010931

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CST Sun Nov 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper trough will move from the MS Valley toward the OH Valley and Great Lakes on Wed/D4, with a secondary trough moving across the Four Corners and into the Southern Plains. An occluded surface low will also move across the upper Great Lakes, with a cold front moving across the OH/TN Valleys and toward the Appalachians. While low-level moisture will support rain and thunderstorms along this front, the lifting of the upper system and weak instability will result in decreasing severe risk. This weakening trend should continue into Thu/D5 as the front moves across the Mid Atlantic and off the East Coast. Behind these systems, the pattern will favor high pressure and minimal chances of thunderstorms.

..Jewell.. 11/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Monday, November 2

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 15%

Tuesday, November 3

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: low

WIND: 5%

Wednesday, November 4

ANY SEVERE: low

Thursday, November 5

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Friday, November 6

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Saturday, November 7

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Sunday, November 8

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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