Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, July 21
Outlook Summary
Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across a broad region from the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast States today into tonight. Swaths of damaging wind gusts are expected to be the most common impact, but some tornadoes are possible as well.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 45%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 211618
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026
Valid 211630Z - 221200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID-ATLANTIC STATES
### SUMMARY
Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across a broad region from the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast States today into tonight. Swaths of damaging wind gusts are expected to be the most common impact, but some tornadoes are possible as well.
Tennessee/Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast
Recent satellite imagery reveals a shortwave trough moving quickly southeastward across the Upper Great Lakes region, embedded within the upper troughing that covers much of eastern Canada and extends down into the Ohio Valley. Moderate mid-level flow accompanies this shortwave, with wind speeds greater than 50 kt sampled around 500 mb on the 12Z ILX, DTX, ILN, and PIT soundings. The strongest flow was sampled at ILX and DTX, and the expectation is for this stronger flow to spread eastward today, moving in tandem with the progressive shortwave.
Showers and thunderstorms are already ongoing downstream of this shortwave, with the highest coverage along and near the pre-frontal trough in Ohio. Recent surface analysis reveals a somewhat complex boundary structure, with a wavy warm front, a diffuse pre-frontal trough, and a cold front. Primary warm front appears to extend west-to-east from southeast Ohio across southern Pennsylvania and into northern New Jersey, far southern New York, and extreme southwest Connecticut. The cold front arcs southwestward from northern Lower Michigan through central Illinois and central Michigan.
Highest overall coverage is anticipated along and ahead of the cold front this afternoon through this evening, with additional development expected farther east (from central Pennsylvania into central Virginia) along the lee trough as well. Highest buoyancy is expected along the western periphery of the cold front from central into western Kentucky, where mid to upper 70s dewpoints are anticipated amid temperatures in the upper 80s/low 90s. Strong buoyancy is still anticipated across Ohio as well. Robust thunderstorm development is expected along the front. Vertical shear is robust enough for supercells, but linear forcing along the front and strong downdraft production will likely lead to quick upscale growth. In either convective mode, damaging gusts (with speeds from 55 to 70 mph) will be the primary risk, with brief tornadoes as a secondary threat, and large hail tertiary.
Farther east, a similar convective environment exists, although with slightly less buoyancy and deep-layer vertical shear. A more outflow-dominant multicell mode is anticipated across the central Virginia vicinity, with a trend towards a more organized mode possible with northern extent. Primary risk will be damaging gusts, including a few around 65 to 70 mph. A somewhat confined corridor of greater tornado potential exists from the Hudson Valley vicinity into western Massachusetts/Connecticut as the warm front lifts northward. Here, enhanced vorticity along the boundary coupled with stronger low-level southerly flow could support a few brief tornadoes.
Great Basin
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across the Great Basin today, supported by strong diurnal heating/mixing and moderate mid-level moisture along the western periphery of the upper ridging centered over the central Rockies. A few strong updrafts/downdrafts are possible, with an attendant risk for strong to severe (i.e. 50 to 65 mph) wind gusts.
Gulf Coast
Tropical Storm Bertha is expected to continue to drift west-northwestward over the northern Gulf tonight from off the coast of the Florida Panhandle toward the southern Mississippi/southern Alabama coast. Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest details.
A strong low-level wind field will approach these coastal areas later today and tonight. However, as is typical for a westward moving tropical cyclone, forecast SRH should remain relatively modest inland. Given the marginal thermodynamic profiles (aside from the rich boundary layer moisture) and limited SRH over land, any Bertha-related mini-supercell potential is expected remain offshore.
..Mosier/Chalmers.. 07/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Wednesday, July 22
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe thunderstorms will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts across parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic. Additional thunderstorms are expected northward across New England, some of which could produce locally strong wind gusts.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 210515
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe thunderstorms will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts across parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic. Additional thunderstorms are expected northward across New England, some of which could produce locally strong wind gusts.
Mid-Atlantic into New England
Several shortwave impulses are forecast to move through large-scale upper troughing across the Northeast on Wednesday. Relatively strong deep-layer winds for mid/late July are forecast, characterized by 500 mb southerly flow around 45-60 kt, 35-55 kt at 700 mb, and 25-35 kt at 850 mb. At the surface, low pressure will lift northeast across Quebec, with a surface trough extending southward into the Mid-Atlantic. A cold front is forecast to be located from eastern NY to the central Appalachians and the TN Valley Wednesday morning. The northern extent of the front will be rather progressive as it moves across New England and the northern Mid-Atlantic through the afternoon and evening. The southern extent of the front will more slowly sag south/southeast across VA/NC. Ahead of the front, southerly low-level flow will maintain a seasonally moist airmass beneath the moderately strong deep-layer wind fields.
While the boundary layer will be moist, strong heating will be limited due to cloud cover and poor lapse rates. This will limit instability, especially with northward extent into New England. Nevertheless, sufficient instability coupled with the stronger deep-layer flow will support organized clusters capable of wind damage. The greatest risk will be focused across the southern Mid-Atlantic where instability will be greatest (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE).
..Leitman.. 07/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Thursday, July 23
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Thursday. However, locally gusty winds could occur with thunderstorms across the central High Plains into the northern Rockies.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 210626
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Thursday. However, locally gusty winds could occur with thunderstorms across the central High Plains into the northern Rockies.
Central High Plains
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop over higher terrain in the central Rockies during the afternoon. Easterly low-level flow across the adjacent High Plains will transport modest boundary layer moisture westward across western KS and eastern CO. Meanwhile, a weak surface boundary may develop south across the central High Plains as convection moves off higher terrain into the High Plains. Forecast soundings indicate generally weak midlevel lapse rates, but steep low-level lapse rates within modest instability (MLCAPE up to 1000 J/kg). This could support gusty outflow winds with storms across the Plains. However, effective shear values in the 20-25 kt range and very weak flow below 500 mb suggests organized severe convection is unlikely amid the weakly unstable airmass.
Northern Rockies
Some enhancement to upper flow is forecast as a shortwave upper trough moves across Alberta and Saskatchewan, and an upper low persists off the Pacific Northwest coast. Forecast soundings show a deeply-mixed boundary layer with steep 0-3 km lapse rates. Steep midlevel lapse rates will be sufficient for weak destabilization, and isolated thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon/evening. Given weak vertical shear and limited instability, organized severe potential is low, though gusty outflow winds could occur.
..Leitman.. 07/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Friday, July 24
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, July 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, July 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, July 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, July 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, July 28 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210718 SPC AC 210718
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
Great Lakes/Midwest
An amplified upper ridge will persist across the Plains and Rockies through early next week. Periods of strengthening northwesterly mid/upper flow are expected on the eastern periphery of the upper ridge as a series of upper shortwave troughs move across the Canadian Prairies and glance the Great Lakes vicinity, mainly Day 5-7/Sat-Mon. This could support areas of severe thunderstorm potential across parts of the Upper Midwest to the Ohio Valley vicinity during this time as stronger northwesterly flow overspreads a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. However, both traditional physics-based NWP and ML/AI NWP are inconsistent and/or show relatively low/broad probability areas – increasing uncertainty in timing and spatial delineation of severe potential. Given the proximity to the upper ridge, capping may be a concern. Trends will be monitored and severe probabilities may become necessary is confidence increases in subsequent outlooks.
..Leitman.. 07/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, July 25
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, July 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, July 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, July 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, July 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, July 28 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210718 SPC AC 210718
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
Great Lakes/Midwest
An amplified upper ridge will persist across the Plains and Rockies through early next week. Periods of strengthening northwesterly mid/upper flow are expected on the eastern periphery of the upper ridge as a series of upper shortwave troughs move across the Canadian Prairies and glance the Great Lakes vicinity, mainly Day 5-7/Sat-Mon. This could support areas of severe thunderstorm potential across parts of the Upper Midwest to the Ohio Valley vicinity during this time as stronger northwesterly flow overspreads a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. However, both traditional physics-based NWP and ML/AI NWP are inconsistent and/or show relatively low/broad probability areas – increasing uncertainty in timing and spatial delineation of severe potential. Given the proximity to the upper ridge, capping may be a concern. Trends will be monitored and severe probabilities may become necessary is confidence increases in subsequent outlooks.
..Leitman.. 07/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, July 26
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, July 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, July 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, July 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, July 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, July 28 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210718 SPC AC 210718
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
Great Lakes/Midwest
An amplified upper ridge will persist across the Plains and Rockies through early next week. Periods of strengthening northwesterly mid/upper flow are expected on the eastern periphery of the upper ridge as a series of upper shortwave troughs move across the Canadian Prairies and glance the Great Lakes vicinity, mainly Day 5-7/Sat-Mon. This could support areas of severe thunderstorm potential across parts of the Upper Midwest to the Ohio Valley vicinity during this time as stronger northwesterly flow overspreads a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. However, both traditional physics-based NWP and ML/AI NWP are inconsistent and/or show relatively low/broad probability areas – increasing uncertainty in timing and spatial delineation of severe potential. Given the proximity to the upper ridge, capping may be a concern. Trends will be monitored and severe probabilities may become necessary is confidence increases in subsequent outlooks.
..Leitman.. 07/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, July 27
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, July 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, July 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, July 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, July 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, July 28 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210718 SPC AC 210718
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
Great Lakes/Midwest
An amplified upper ridge will persist across the Plains and Rockies through early next week. Periods of strengthening northwesterly mid/upper flow are expected on the eastern periphery of the upper ridge as a series of upper shortwave troughs move across the Canadian Prairies and glance the Great Lakes vicinity, mainly Day 5-7/Sat-Mon. This could support areas of severe thunderstorm potential across parts of the Upper Midwest to the Ohio Valley vicinity during this time as stronger northwesterly flow overspreads a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. However, both traditional physics-based NWP and ML/AI NWP are inconsistent and/or show relatively low/broad probability areas – increasing uncertainty in timing and spatial delineation of severe potential. Given the proximity to the upper ridge, capping may be a concern. Trends will be monitored and severe probabilities may become necessary is confidence increases in subsequent outlooks.
..Leitman.. 07/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, July 28
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, July 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, July 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, July 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, July 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, July 28 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210718 SPC AC 210718
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
Great Lakes/Midwest
An amplified upper ridge will persist across the Plains and Rockies through early next week. Periods of strengthening northwesterly mid/upper flow are expected on the eastern periphery of the upper ridge as a series of upper shortwave troughs move across the Canadian Prairies and glance the Great Lakes vicinity, mainly Day 5-7/Sat-Mon. This could support areas of severe thunderstorm potential across parts of the Upper Midwest to the Ohio Valley vicinity during this time as stronger northwesterly flow overspreads a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. However, both traditional physics-based NWP and ML/AI NWP are inconsistent and/or show relatively low/broad probability areas – increasing uncertainty in timing and spatial delineation of severe potential. Given the proximity to the upper ridge, capping may be a concern. Trends will be monitored and severe probabilities may become necessary is confidence increases in subsequent outlooks.
..Leitman.. 07/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, July 21
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 45%
- Wednesday, July 22
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 15%
- Thursday, July 23
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Friday, July 24
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, July 25
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, July 26
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, July 27
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, July 28
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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