Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, March 12
Outlook Summary
Strong to severe thunderstorms may produce occasional damaging winds across parts of the eastern Carolinas through this afternoon. A brief tornado or two could also occur with this activity. Strong convective wind gusts are possible across the northern Plains this afternoon as well.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 121544
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
Valid 121630Z - 131200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
### SUMMARY
Strong to severe thunderstorms may produce occasional damaging winds across parts of the eastern Carolinas through this afternoon. A brief tornado or two could also occur with this activity. Strong convective wind gusts are possible across the northern Plains this afternoon as well.
Carolinas and North Florida
A broken line of low-topped thunderstorms will continue to move quickly northeastward this afternoon across parts of the Carolinas in tandem with a mid-level shortwave trough across the Southeast. Strong low to mid-level southwesterly flow should promote some threat for occasional severe/damaging winds with this line as filtered daytime heating fosters modest steepening of low-level lapse rates and weak destabilization. Even so, poor mid-level lapse rates will tend to limit the development of any more than modest instability overall. While low-level winds have generally veered to southwesterly per recent VWPs from LTX/MHX, there is still sufficient speed shear in the 0-1 km layer to support embedded circulations within the line, and perhaps a brief tornado or two. The Slight Risk has been adjusted for latest observational and guidance trends to reflect the mainly damaging wind threat with the line this afternoon, before it moves offshore into the western Atlantic. A small Marginal Risk area has also been maintained for parts of north FL where an isolated damaging wind threat should exist in the short term with the far southern portion of the line.
Northern Plains
Very strong mid-level winds (around 100-120 kt at 500 mb) will spread southeastward across the northern Plains this afternoon in tandem with a low-amplitude mid-level shortwave trough moving over the northern Plains. Latest NAM/RAP forecast soundings suggest very weak instability may develop south of a front across the northern Plains, such that shallow convection may develop with some threat of lightning. This convection could augment the already strong west-northwesterly low/mid-level flow, resulting in strong surface wind gusts. Isolated significant wind gusts (65+ kt) could occur with any sustained convection that develops, but confidence in this scenario remains low.
..Gleason/Chalmers.. 03/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Friday, March 13
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 120512
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.
Synopsis
A diffuse surface boundary will reside across central FL on Friday. To the south of the boundary, a seasonally warm and moist airmass will be in place. This will support modest destabilization during the afternoon, and isolated thunderstorms may develop, mainly across south FL. Poor lapse rates, weak vertical shear, and a lack of forcing for ascent will preclude severe thunderstorm potential.
..Leitman.. 03/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Saturday, March 14
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 120641
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.
Synopsis
A potent upper trough will dig southward across the Rockies on Saturday, emerging over the northern Plains to southern Rockies by Sunday morning. In response to sharp height falls, a deepening surface cyclone over the central High Plains will develop eastward through the period, becoming oriented over the Lower MO Valley Sunday morning. A prior cold frontal passage deep into the Gulf will result in only modest moisture return northward across the south-central U.S., with any deeper boundary-layer moisture remaining mostly offshore, and across south TX. Given this dry airmass ahead of the surface low and associated trailing cold front moving across the Plains, little instability is forecast and thunderstorms are unlikely through early Sunday across much of the warm sector over the south-central U.S.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across south FL where a seasonally warm/moist and unstable airmass will reside. Large-scale ascent will remain nebulous, but isolated thunderstorms could develop along the sea breeze across the southwest Peninsula. Weak vertical shear and poor lapse rates will preclude severe thunderstorm potential.
..Leitman.. 03/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Sunday, March 15
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, March 15 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Monday, March 16 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, March 17 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, March 18 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, March 19 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120815 SPC AC 120815
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Sunday - ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley into the Middle MS/Lower OH Valleys
An intense upper trough will deepen over the Plains and shift east to the MS Valley on Sunday. From late afternoon into the nighttime hours, an 80-100 kt jet streak will develop within the base of the trough and overspread portions of the region. At the surface, an already strong cyclone will deepen further as it moves from the Lower MO Valley to the Lower Great Lakes vicinity. As this occurs, a strong cold front will sweep eastward across the southern Plains and much of the Midwest and Southern U.S., becoming oriented from Ohio to the FL Panhandle by Monday morning.
While strengthening southerly low-level flow will develop ahead of the front, stronger Gulf moisture return will be confined to TX and the Lower MS Valley vicinity, with mainly 50s dewpoints expected with northward extent across the Middle MS and OH Valley regions. Furthermore, capping is expected ahead of the cold front, potentially limiting warm sector convection. Nevertheless, modest moisture and steepening midlevel lapse rates will support at least weak destabilization very near the cold front. A narrow line of strongly-forced convection is expected to develop along the cold front and move across portions of OK/TX into the Middle/Lower MS and Lower OH/TN Valley regions. Given intense deep-layer flow near and just behind the cold front, strong/damaging wind potential will exist within a modest instability/high shear environment. A 15 percent severe delineation has been included from the ArkLaTex into the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley vicinity. Depending on low-level moisture/instability trends, this area may need to be expanded north and east into a larger portion of the Middle MS/Lower OH/TN Valley vicinity in subsequent outlooks.
Day 5/Monday - Southeast to Mid-Atlantic
Severe thunderstorm potential will likely continue into Monday as the intense upper trough continues to migrate east from the MS Valley toward the Eastern Seaboard. Intense deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile, 60s F dewpoints will extend from southeast GA northward through the Mid-Atlantic ahead of a sharp cold front. Pre-frontal surface troughing across the VA/NC Piedmont also will support backing low-level winds, leading to enhanced low-level shear. Depending on how much cloud cover and warm advection precipitation occurs ahead of the cold front, stronger destabilization may be inhibited. Nevertheless, at least weak instability is forecast ahead of a strongly forced line of convection along the eastward-advancing cold front. This activity alone could produce a swath of strong to severe wind gusts. A more conditional risk of supercells across the warm sector exists across eastern VA/NC, but this is more uncertain. Given damaging wind potential with the strongly forced linear convection, a 15 percent severe delineation has been added for portions of the region.
Days 6-8/Tuesday-Thursday
Severe thunderstorm potential will be low Tuesday through Thursday as strong surface high pressure builds in the wake of the earlier cold frontal passage. A dry/stable airmass will prevail as Gulf moisture remains well offshore.
..Leitman.. 03/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, March 16
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, March 15 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Monday, March 16 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, March 17 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, March 18 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, March 19 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120815 SPC AC 120815
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Sunday - ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley into the Middle MS/Lower OH Valleys
An intense upper trough will deepen over the Plains and shift east to the MS Valley on Sunday. From late afternoon into the nighttime hours, an 80-100 kt jet streak will develop within the base of the trough and overspread portions of the region. At the surface, an already strong cyclone will deepen further as it moves from the Lower MO Valley to the Lower Great Lakes vicinity. As this occurs, a strong cold front will sweep eastward across the southern Plains and much of the Midwest and Southern U.S., becoming oriented from Ohio to the FL Panhandle by Monday morning.
While strengthening southerly low-level flow will develop ahead of the front, stronger Gulf moisture return will be confined to TX and the Lower MS Valley vicinity, with mainly 50s dewpoints expected with northward extent across the Middle MS and OH Valley regions. Furthermore, capping is expected ahead of the cold front, potentially limiting warm sector convection. Nevertheless, modest moisture and steepening midlevel lapse rates will support at least weak destabilization very near the cold front. A narrow line of strongly-forced convection is expected to develop along the cold front and move across portions of OK/TX into the Middle/Lower MS and Lower OH/TN Valley regions. Given intense deep-layer flow near and just behind the cold front, strong/damaging wind potential will exist within a modest instability/high shear environment. A 15 percent severe delineation has been included from the ArkLaTex into the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley vicinity. Depending on low-level moisture/instability trends, this area may need to be expanded north and east into a larger portion of the Middle MS/Lower OH/TN Valley vicinity in subsequent outlooks.
Day 5/Monday - Southeast to Mid-Atlantic
Severe thunderstorm potential will likely continue into Monday as the intense upper trough continues to migrate east from the MS Valley toward the Eastern Seaboard. Intense deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile, 60s F dewpoints will extend from southeast GA northward through the Mid-Atlantic ahead of a sharp cold front. Pre-frontal surface troughing across the VA/NC Piedmont also will support backing low-level winds, leading to enhanced low-level shear. Depending on how much cloud cover and warm advection precipitation occurs ahead of the cold front, stronger destabilization may be inhibited. Nevertheless, at least weak instability is forecast ahead of a strongly forced line of convection along the eastward-advancing cold front. This activity alone could produce a swath of strong to severe wind gusts. A more conditional risk of supercells across the warm sector exists across eastern VA/NC, but this is more uncertain. Given damaging wind potential with the strongly forced linear convection, a 15 percent severe delineation has been added for portions of the region.
Days 6-8/Tuesday-Thursday
Severe thunderstorm potential will be low Tuesday through Thursday as strong surface high pressure builds in the wake of the earlier cold frontal passage. A dry/stable airmass will prevail as Gulf moisture remains well offshore.
..Leitman.. 03/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, March 17
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, March 15 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Monday, March 16 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, March 17 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, March 18 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, March 19 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120815 SPC AC 120815
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Sunday - ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley into the Middle MS/Lower OH Valleys
An intense upper trough will deepen over the Plains and shift east to the MS Valley on Sunday. From late afternoon into the nighttime hours, an 80-100 kt jet streak will develop within the base of the trough and overspread portions of the region. At the surface, an already strong cyclone will deepen further as it moves from the Lower MO Valley to the Lower Great Lakes vicinity. As this occurs, a strong cold front will sweep eastward across the southern Plains and much of the Midwest and Southern U.S., becoming oriented from Ohio to the FL Panhandle by Monday morning.
While strengthening southerly low-level flow will develop ahead of the front, stronger Gulf moisture return will be confined to TX and the Lower MS Valley vicinity, with mainly 50s dewpoints expected with northward extent across the Middle MS and OH Valley regions. Furthermore, capping is expected ahead of the cold front, potentially limiting warm sector convection. Nevertheless, modest moisture and steepening midlevel lapse rates will support at least weak destabilization very near the cold front. A narrow line of strongly-forced convection is expected to develop along the cold front and move across portions of OK/TX into the Middle/Lower MS and Lower OH/TN Valley regions. Given intense deep-layer flow near and just behind the cold front, strong/damaging wind potential will exist within a modest instability/high shear environment. A 15 percent severe delineation has been included from the ArkLaTex into the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley vicinity. Depending on low-level moisture/instability trends, this area may need to be expanded north and east into a larger portion of the Middle MS/Lower OH/TN Valley vicinity in subsequent outlooks.
Day 5/Monday - Southeast to Mid-Atlantic
Severe thunderstorm potential will likely continue into Monday as the intense upper trough continues to migrate east from the MS Valley toward the Eastern Seaboard. Intense deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile, 60s F dewpoints will extend from southeast GA northward through the Mid-Atlantic ahead of a sharp cold front. Pre-frontal surface troughing across the VA/NC Piedmont also will support backing low-level winds, leading to enhanced low-level shear. Depending on how much cloud cover and warm advection precipitation occurs ahead of the cold front, stronger destabilization may be inhibited. Nevertheless, at least weak instability is forecast ahead of a strongly forced line of convection along the eastward-advancing cold front. This activity alone could produce a swath of strong to severe wind gusts. A more conditional risk of supercells across the warm sector exists across eastern VA/NC, but this is more uncertain. Given damaging wind potential with the strongly forced linear convection, a 15 percent severe delineation has been added for portions of the region.
Days 6-8/Tuesday-Thursday
Severe thunderstorm potential will be low Tuesday through Thursday as strong surface high pressure builds in the wake of the earlier cold frontal passage. A dry/stable airmass will prevail as Gulf moisture remains well offshore.
..Leitman.. 03/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, March 18
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, March 15 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Monday, March 16 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, March 17 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, March 18 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, March 19 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120815 SPC AC 120815
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Sunday - ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley into the Middle MS/Lower OH Valleys
An intense upper trough will deepen over the Plains and shift east to the MS Valley on Sunday. From late afternoon into the nighttime hours, an 80-100 kt jet streak will develop within the base of the trough and overspread portions of the region. At the surface, an already strong cyclone will deepen further as it moves from the Lower MO Valley to the Lower Great Lakes vicinity. As this occurs, a strong cold front will sweep eastward across the southern Plains and much of the Midwest and Southern U.S., becoming oriented from Ohio to the FL Panhandle by Monday morning.
While strengthening southerly low-level flow will develop ahead of the front, stronger Gulf moisture return will be confined to TX and the Lower MS Valley vicinity, with mainly 50s dewpoints expected with northward extent across the Middle MS and OH Valley regions. Furthermore, capping is expected ahead of the cold front, potentially limiting warm sector convection. Nevertheless, modest moisture and steepening midlevel lapse rates will support at least weak destabilization very near the cold front. A narrow line of strongly-forced convection is expected to develop along the cold front and move across portions of OK/TX into the Middle/Lower MS and Lower OH/TN Valley regions. Given intense deep-layer flow near and just behind the cold front, strong/damaging wind potential will exist within a modest instability/high shear environment. A 15 percent severe delineation has been included from the ArkLaTex into the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley vicinity. Depending on low-level moisture/instability trends, this area may need to be expanded north and east into a larger portion of the Middle MS/Lower OH/TN Valley vicinity in subsequent outlooks.
Day 5/Monday - Southeast to Mid-Atlantic
Severe thunderstorm potential will likely continue into Monday as the intense upper trough continues to migrate east from the MS Valley toward the Eastern Seaboard. Intense deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile, 60s F dewpoints will extend from southeast GA northward through the Mid-Atlantic ahead of a sharp cold front. Pre-frontal surface troughing across the VA/NC Piedmont also will support backing low-level winds, leading to enhanced low-level shear. Depending on how much cloud cover and warm advection precipitation occurs ahead of the cold front, stronger destabilization may be inhibited. Nevertheless, at least weak instability is forecast ahead of a strongly forced line of convection along the eastward-advancing cold front. This activity alone could produce a swath of strong to severe wind gusts. A more conditional risk of supercells across the warm sector exists across eastern VA/NC, but this is more uncertain. Given damaging wind potential with the strongly forced linear convection, a 15 percent severe delineation has been added for portions of the region.
Days 6-8/Tuesday-Thursday
Severe thunderstorm potential will be low Tuesday through Thursday as strong surface high pressure builds in the wake of the earlier cold frontal passage. A dry/stable airmass will prevail as Gulf moisture remains well offshore.
..Leitman.. 03/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, March 19
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, March 15 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Monday, March 16 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, March 17 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, March 18 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, March 19 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120815 SPC AC 120815
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Sunday - ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley into the Middle MS/Lower OH Valleys
An intense upper trough will deepen over the Plains and shift east to the MS Valley on Sunday. From late afternoon into the nighttime hours, an 80-100 kt jet streak will develop within the base of the trough and overspread portions of the region. At the surface, an already strong cyclone will deepen further as it moves from the Lower MO Valley to the Lower Great Lakes vicinity. As this occurs, a strong cold front will sweep eastward across the southern Plains and much of the Midwest and Southern U.S., becoming oriented from Ohio to the FL Panhandle by Monday morning.
While strengthening southerly low-level flow will develop ahead of the front, stronger Gulf moisture return will be confined to TX and the Lower MS Valley vicinity, with mainly 50s dewpoints expected with northward extent across the Middle MS and OH Valley regions. Furthermore, capping is expected ahead of the cold front, potentially limiting warm sector convection. Nevertheless, modest moisture and steepening midlevel lapse rates will support at least weak destabilization very near the cold front. A narrow line of strongly-forced convection is expected to develop along the cold front and move across portions of OK/TX into the Middle/Lower MS and Lower OH/TN Valley regions. Given intense deep-layer flow near and just behind the cold front, strong/damaging wind potential will exist within a modest instability/high shear environment. A 15 percent severe delineation has been included from the ArkLaTex into the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley vicinity. Depending on low-level moisture/instability trends, this area may need to be expanded north and east into a larger portion of the Middle MS/Lower OH/TN Valley vicinity in subsequent outlooks.
Day 5/Monday - Southeast to Mid-Atlantic
Severe thunderstorm potential will likely continue into Monday as the intense upper trough continues to migrate east from the MS Valley toward the Eastern Seaboard. Intense deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile, 60s F dewpoints will extend from southeast GA northward through the Mid-Atlantic ahead of a sharp cold front. Pre-frontal surface troughing across the VA/NC Piedmont also will support backing low-level winds, leading to enhanced low-level shear. Depending on how much cloud cover and warm advection precipitation occurs ahead of the cold front, stronger destabilization may be inhibited. Nevertheless, at least weak instability is forecast ahead of a strongly forced line of convection along the eastward-advancing cold front. This activity alone could produce a swath of strong to severe wind gusts. A more conditional risk of supercells across the warm sector exists across eastern VA/NC, but this is more uncertain. Given damaging wind potential with the strongly forced linear convection, a 15 percent severe delineation has been added for portions of the region.
Days 6-8/Tuesday-Thursday
Severe thunderstorm potential will be low Tuesday through Thursday as strong surface high pressure builds in the wake of the earlier cold frontal passage. A dry/stable airmass will prevail as Gulf moisture remains well offshore.
..Leitman.. 03/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, March 12
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 15%
- Friday, March 13
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Saturday, March 14
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Sunday, March 15
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Monday, March 16
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Tuesday, March 17
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, March 18
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, March 19
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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