Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, August 16
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible from this afternoon into early evening over parts of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Large hail and isolated severe wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the central High Plains.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 160556
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY…CENTRAL APPALACHIANS…MID-ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible from this afternoon into early evening over parts of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Large hail and isolated severe wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the central High Plains.
Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic
A mid-level shortwave trough, embedded in west-northwesterly flow, will move through the Ohio Valley today. Ahead of the shortwave trough, a moist airmass will be in place from the Ohio Valley southeastward to the Mid-Atlantic Coast. Surface dewpoints along this west-northwest to east-southeast corridor will be in the 70s F, which will contribute to the development of moderate instability by midday. At the surface, a cold front will advance eastward into the Ohio Valley, as a pre-frontal trough moves into the central Appalachians. These two features will focus convective development during the day. A complex of storms appears likely to form over the higher terrain in West Virginia, and move east-southeastward into the lower elevations of Virginia and Maryland during the mid to late afternoon.
RAP forecast soundings from West Virginia into the Virginia in the late afternoon have 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 30 knot range. Some directional shear is present in the low-levels and 0-3 km lapse rates are steep approaching 7 C/km. This environment will support a wind-damage threat with organized multicells. Isolated supercells with severe gusts will also be possible. The threat may continue into the early evening across parts of the Mid-Atlantic.
Further west into parts of the lower Ohio Valley, a very moist airmass will also be in place. Surface dewpoints in the 70s F will contribute to the development of moderate instability. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along zones of low-level convergence during the afternoon. Although large-scale ascent will be weaker further west, the thermodynamic environment will be sufficient for isolated severe gusts.
Central High Plains
At mid-levels, a ridge will move through the Intermountain West today as flow remains westerly over much of the central U.S. As surface temperatures warm, scattered thunderstorms will develop in the foothills of the central Rockies. These storms will move eastward into the lower elevations of eastern Colorado and western Nebraska. RAP forecast soundings across the central High Plains by late afternoon have moderate instability (MLCAPE around 2500 J/kg), 0-6 km shear near 35 knots and 700 to 500 mb lapse rates in the 7 to 7.5 C/km range. This should support a threat for large hail and isolated severe gusts with rotating storms and organized line segments. The threat will likely persist into the evening across parts of the central High Plains.
..Broyles/Lyons.. 08/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Monday, August 17
Outlook Summary
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon and evening across portions of the northern and central Plains, and parts of the southern Appalachians/Carolinas.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 160526
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY…AND ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
### SUMMARY
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon and evening across portions of the northern and central Plains, and parts of the southern Appalachians/Carolinas.
Northern/Central Plains
An upper shortwave trough will deepen as it develop east/southeast across Ontario and the Upper Midwest, resulting in broader height falls from the northern/central Plains to Great Lakes. As this occurs, 40-50 kt northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the region. At the surface, a cold front will extend from northwest MN into western NE by 00z. Ahead of the front, a corridor of 60s F dewpoints are expected across central/eastern NE into IA/southeast SD and MN. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely to develop by late afternoon ahead of the surface boundary. Modestly steep lapse rates and strong heating of the moist boundary layer will result in 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE amid 35+ kt effective shear magnitudes. This should result in organized supercells structures capable of large hail and damaging gusts. There is some potential upscale growth could occur during the evening across NE as a modest low-level jet develops. If this occurs, the damaging wind risk could increase.
South-central Appalachians
A vorticity max located over the Lower OH Valley will develop east/southeast through 30-40 kt west/northwesterly flow aloft Monday afternoon and evening. A very moist and unstable airmass will be in place amid strong daytime heating. Large-scale ascent will increase as the vorticity maxima approaches during the afternoon, and a surface boundary begins to sag south/southeast over the region. Steep low-level lapse rates, high PW values, and 25-30 kt effective shear magnitudes could result in organized clusters producing damaging gusts through evening.
..Leitman.. 08/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Tuesday, August 18
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected on Tuesday afternoon/evening across parts of the central Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 160719
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
CORRECTED FOR MISSPELLING
SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected on Tuesday afternoon/evening across parts of the central Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley.
Central Plains to Mid-MS Valley vicinity
Height falls are expected across the region during the afternoon into Tuesday night as an upper trough continues to dig across the Great Lakes. This will result in increasing northwesterly flow aloft, and a deepening surface low over KS. Rich boundary layer moisture will be in place ahead of a south/southeast-advancing cold front. Moderate to strong instability is expected to develop by afternoon. Forecast soundings show steep midlevel lapse rates, with vertically veering wind profiles supporting 40+ kt effective shear. Elongated/straight hodographs are also present in forecast soundings. Initial supercells could pose a risk for large hail and severe gusts. With time, sufficient clustering could occur ahead of the front as a low-level jet increases during the evening, and MCS development may occur.
..Leitman.. 08/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Wednesday, August 19
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, August 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, August 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, August 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, August 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, August 23 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160752 SPC AC 160752
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-5/Wed-Thu – Mid-South to Mid-Atlantic
An amplifying upper pattern is expected mid-week into the weekend, with troughing developing across the eastern half of the CONUS and an upper riding across the western half. As the upper trough digs across the eastern U.S., some severe potential could develop across the Mid-South into the southern Mid-Atlantic on Days 4-5/Wed-Thu. Building surface high pressure across the Great Lakes and stalled upper troughing will result in a slowly sagging surface front arcing across the region. With a very moist airmass in place, thunderstorms are possible, and at least isolated damaging winds could accompany this activity. However, potential appears too limited at this time for 15 percent probabilities at the time scale.
Days 7-8/Sat-Sun – Northern/Central Plains
Some severe potential could develop across the Plains during the weekend on the eastern periphery of the amplified upper ridge. Northwesterly flow aloft will remain enhanced across the region as southerly low-level flow on the back side of the Great Lakes surface high transports rich boundary layer moisture across the region. It is uncertain if capping will preclude thunderstorm development, but if any shortwave impulses migrate through northwesterly flow aloft, some severe risk could develop.
..Leitman.. 08/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, August 20
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, August 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, August 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, August 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, August 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, August 23 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160752 SPC AC 160752
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-5/Wed-Thu – Mid-South to Mid-Atlantic
An amplifying upper pattern is expected mid-week into the weekend, with troughing developing across the eastern half of the CONUS and an upper riding across the western half. As the upper trough digs across the eastern U.S., some severe potential could develop across the Mid-South into the southern Mid-Atlantic on Days 4-5/Wed-Thu. Building surface high pressure across the Great Lakes and stalled upper troughing will result in a slowly sagging surface front arcing across the region. With a very moist airmass in place, thunderstorms are possible, and at least isolated damaging winds could accompany this activity. However, potential appears too limited at this time for 15 percent probabilities at the time scale.
Days 7-8/Sat-Sun – Northern/Central Plains
Some severe potential could develop across the Plains during the weekend on the eastern periphery of the amplified upper ridge. Northwesterly flow aloft will remain enhanced across the region as southerly low-level flow on the back side of the Great Lakes surface high transports rich boundary layer moisture across the region. It is uncertain if capping will preclude thunderstorm development, but if any shortwave impulses migrate through northwesterly flow aloft, some severe risk could develop.
..Leitman.. 08/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, August 21
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, August 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, August 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, August 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, August 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, August 23 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160752 SPC AC 160752
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-5/Wed-Thu – Mid-South to Mid-Atlantic
An amplifying upper pattern is expected mid-week into the weekend, with troughing developing across the eastern half of the CONUS and an upper riding across the western half. As the upper trough digs across the eastern U.S., some severe potential could develop across the Mid-South into the southern Mid-Atlantic on Days 4-5/Wed-Thu. Building surface high pressure across the Great Lakes and stalled upper troughing will result in a slowly sagging surface front arcing across the region. With a very moist airmass in place, thunderstorms are possible, and at least isolated damaging winds could accompany this activity. However, potential appears too limited at this time for 15 percent probabilities at the time scale.
Days 7-8/Sat-Sun – Northern/Central Plains
Some severe potential could develop across the Plains during the weekend on the eastern periphery of the amplified upper ridge. Northwesterly flow aloft will remain enhanced across the region as southerly low-level flow on the back side of the Great Lakes surface high transports rich boundary layer moisture across the region. It is uncertain if capping will preclude thunderstorm development, but if any shortwave impulses migrate through northwesterly flow aloft, some severe risk could develop.
..Leitman.. 08/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, August 22
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, August 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, August 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, August 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, August 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, August 23 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160752 SPC AC 160752
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-5/Wed-Thu – Mid-South to Mid-Atlantic
An amplifying upper pattern is expected mid-week into the weekend, with troughing developing across the eastern half of the CONUS and an upper riding across the western half. As the upper trough digs across the eastern U.S., some severe potential could develop across the Mid-South into the southern Mid-Atlantic on Days 4-5/Wed-Thu. Building surface high pressure across the Great Lakes and stalled upper troughing will result in a slowly sagging surface front arcing across the region. With a very moist airmass in place, thunderstorms are possible, and at least isolated damaging winds could accompany this activity. However, potential appears too limited at this time for 15 percent probabilities at the time scale.
Days 7-8/Sat-Sun – Northern/Central Plains
Some severe potential could develop across the Plains during the weekend on the eastern periphery of the amplified upper ridge. Northwesterly flow aloft will remain enhanced across the region as southerly low-level flow on the back side of the Great Lakes surface high transports rich boundary layer moisture across the region. It is uncertain if capping will preclude thunderstorm development, but if any shortwave impulses migrate through northwesterly flow aloft, some severe risk could develop.
..Leitman.. 08/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, August 23
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, August 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, August 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, August 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, August 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, August 23 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160752 SPC AC 160752
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-5/Wed-Thu – Mid-South to Mid-Atlantic
An amplifying upper pattern is expected mid-week into the weekend, with troughing developing across the eastern half of the CONUS and an upper riding across the western half. As the upper trough digs across the eastern U.S., some severe potential could develop across the Mid-South into the southern Mid-Atlantic on Days 4-5/Wed-Thu. Building surface high pressure across the Great Lakes and stalled upper troughing will result in a slowly sagging surface front arcing across the region. With a very moist airmass in place, thunderstorms are possible, and at least isolated damaging winds could accompany this activity. However, potential appears too limited at this time for 15 percent probabilities at the time scale.
Days 7-8/Sat-Sun – Northern/Central Plains
Some severe potential could develop across the Plains during the weekend on the eastern periphery of the amplified upper ridge. Northwesterly flow aloft will remain enhanced across the region as southerly low-level flow on the back side of the Great Lakes surface high transports rich boundary layer moisture across the region. It is uncertain if capping will preclude thunderstorm development, but if any shortwave impulses migrate through northwesterly flow aloft, some severe risk could develop.
..Leitman.. 08/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, August 16
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Monday, August 17
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Tuesday, August 18
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Wednesday, August 19
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, August 20
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, August 21
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, August 22
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, August 23
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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