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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Wednesday, February 11
Thursday, February 12
Friday, February 13
Saturday, February 14
Sunday, February 15
Monday, February 16
Tuesday, February 17

Outlook for Wednesday, February 11

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 110529

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

CA/Great Basin

Weak midlevel height falls are forecast to spread across CA into the Great Basin later this afternoon in response to an upper low that will advance slowly inland. Latest model guidance suggests this feature will contribute to destabilization across much of central CA into NV/UT as sub -24C at 500mb exists beneath the upper low. Associated surface low is forecast to struggle advancing inland so weak south-southeasterly boundary-layer flow is expected across the interior valleys. Forecast soundings exhibit weak vertical shear, but modest turning with height. While buoyancy will remain weak, a few low-topped storms could weakly rotate given the veering profiles. Aside from lightning, the greatest risk would be small hail, at best, with this diurnally enhanced convection.

Southeast

Westerly flow will gradually deepen across the Southeast later today in advance of a surface front that will advance toward the SC/GA coast by early evening. Some boundary-layer heating is expected ahead of the wind shift such that weak buoyancy is forecast ahead of the front. Latest forecast soundings suggest the most robust convection could attain heights necessary for lightning discharge, but this activity is expected to remain isolated.

..Darrow/Squitieri.. 02/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Thursday, February 12

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 110543

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

Synopsis

Overall thunderstorms potential appears low on Thursday, largely driven by upper level ridging over the central CONUS and a dry/stable airmass east of the Rockies. An upper trough is forecast to develop east across portions of the Great Basin into southern CA. Cooling aloft may support a brief period of weak instability and a lightning flash or two cannot be ruled out across the UT vicinity. However, chances for 10 percent or greater coverage appear low given midlevel drying after about 15z.

..Leitman.. 02/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Friday, February 13

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Friday, February 13 predictability too low
Day 5 Saturday, February 14 predictability too low
Day 6 Sunday, February 15 predictability too low
Day 7 Monday, February 16 potential too low
Day 8 Tuesday, February 17 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100901 SPC AC 100901

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-6/Fri-Sun – TX into the Southeast

An upper trough is forecast to spread eastward from the Southwest into the Southeast Days 4-6/Fri-Sun. Beginning on Day 4/Friday, southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Plains ahead of the trough and surface low pressure is expected to develop over western TX. As the system spreads east through the weekend, Gulf moisture (upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints) will overspread much of central to eastern TX toward the Lower MS Valley and Deep South. Some model spread persists with regards to the timing of eastward progression of the upper trough, and exact latitude of the surface low (some guidance clustering further south, other guidance a bit further north), which will impact quality of moisture return. Regardless, at least weak destabilization should accompany boundary layer moistening and cooling aloft amid strengthening deep-layer southwesterly flow.

Some low-end severe potential is possible from Friday evening through Saturday across portions of TX, and into the Lower MS Valley/Deep South Saturday night through Sunday. However, overall severe potential will likely be limited by weak destabilization, a somewhat cool boundary layer, and questionable moisture return this early in the season, precluding 15 percent severe delineation.

..Leitman.. 02/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, February 14

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Friday, February 13 predictability too low
Day 5 Saturday, February 14 predictability too low
Day 6 Sunday, February 15 predictability too low
Day 7 Monday, February 16 potential too low
Day 8 Tuesday, February 17 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100901 SPC AC 100901

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-6/Fri-Sun – TX into the Southeast

An upper trough is forecast to spread eastward from the Southwest into the Southeast Days 4-6/Fri-Sun. Beginning on Day 4/Friday, southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Plains ahead of the trough and surface low pressure is expected to develop over western TX. As the system spreads east through the weekend, Gulf moisture (upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints) will overspread much of central to eastern TX toward the Lower MS Valley and Deep South. Some model spread persists with regards to the timing of eastward progression of the upper trough, and exact latitude of the surface low (some guidance clustering further south, other guidance a bit further north), which will impact quality of moisture return. Regardless, at least weak destabilization should accompany boundary layer moistening and cooling aloft amid strengthening deep-layer southwesterly flow.

Some low-end severe potential is possible from Friday evening through Saturday across portions of TX, and into the Lower MS Valley/Deep South Saturday night through Sunday. However, overall severe potential will likely be limited by weak destabilization, a somewhat cool boundary layer, and questionable moisture return this early in the season, precluding 15 percent severe delineation.

..Leitman.. 02/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Sunday, February 15

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Friday, February 13 predictability too low
Day 5 Saturday, February 14 predictability too low
Day 6 Sunday, February 15 predictability too low
Day 7 Monday, February 16 potential too low
Day 8 Tuesday, February 17 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100901 SPC AC 100901

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-6/Fri-Sun – TX into the Southeast

An upper trough is forecast to spread eastward from the Southwest into the Southeast Days 4-6/Fri-Sun. Beginning on Day 4/Friday, southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Plains ahead of the trough and surface low pressure is expected to develop over western TX. As the system spreads east through the weekend, Gulf moisture (upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints) will overspread much of central to eastern TX toward the Lower MS Valley and Deep South. Some model spread persists with regards to the timing of eastward progression of the upper trough, and exact latitude of the surface low (some guidance clustering further south, other guidance a bit further north), which will impact quality of moisture return. Regardless, at least weak destabilization should accompany boundary layer moistening and cooling aloft amid strengthening deep-layer southwesterly flow.

Some low-end severe potential is possible from Friday evening through Saturday across portions of TX, and into the Lower MS Valley/Deep South Saturday night through Sunday. However, overall severe potential will likely be limited by weak destabilization, a somewhat cool boundary layer, and questionable moisture return this early in the season, precluding 15 percent severe delineation.

..Leitman.. 02/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Monday, February 16

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Friday, February 13 predictability too low
Day 5 Saturday, February 14 predictability too low
Day 6 Sunday, February 15 predictability too low
Day 7 Monday, February 16 potential too low
Day 8 Tuesday, February 17 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100901 SPC AC 100901

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-6/Fri-Sun – TX into the Southeast

An upper trough is forecast to spread eastward from the Southwest into the Southeast Days 4-6/Fri-Sun. Beginning on Day 4/Friday, southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Plains ahead of the trough and surface low pressure is expected to develop over western TX. As the system spreads east through the weekend, Gulf moisture (upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints) will overspread much of central to eastern TX toward the Lower MS Valley and Deep South. Some model spread persists with regards to the timing of eastward progression of the upper trough, and exact latitude of the surface low (some guidance clustering further south, other guidance a bit further north), which will impact quality of moisture return. Regardless, at least weak destabilization should accompany boundary layer moistening and cooling aloft amid strengthening deep-layer southwesterly flow.

Some low-end severe potential is possible from Friday evening through Saturday across portions of TX, and into the Lower MS Valley/Deep South Saturday night through Sunday. However, overall severe potential will likely be limited by weak destabilization, a somewhat cool boundary layer, and questionable moisture return this early in the season, precluding 15 percent severe delineation.

..Leitman.. 02/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Tuesday, February 17

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Friday, February 13 predictability too low
Day 5 Saturday, February 14 predictability too low
Day 6 Sunday, February 15 predictability too low
Day 7 Monday, February 16 potential too low
Day 8 Tuesday, February 17 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100901 SPC AC 100901

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-6/Fri-Sun – TX into the Southeast

An upper trough is forecast to spread eastward from the Southwest into the Southeast Days 4-6/Fri-Sun. Beginning on Day 4/Friday, southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Plains ahead of the trough and surface low pressure is expected to develop over western TX. As the system spreads east through the weekend, Gulf moisture (upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints) will overspread much of central to eastern TX toward the Lower MS Valley and Deep South. Some model spread persists with regards to the timing of eastward progression of the upper trough, and exact latitude of the surface low (some guidance clustering further south, other guidance a bit further north), which will impact quality of moisture return. Regardless, at least weak destabilization should accompany boundary layer moistening and cooling aloft amid strengthening deep-layer southwesterly flow.

Some low-end severe potential is possible from Friday evening through Saturday across portions of TX, and into the Lower MS Valley/Deep South Saturday night through Sunday. However, overall severe potential will likely be limited by weak destabilization, a somewhat cool boundary layer, and questionable moisture return this early in the season, precluding 15 percent severe delineation.

..Leitman.. 02/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, February 11
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: low
Thursday, February 12
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: low
Friday, February 13
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, February 14
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, February 15
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, February 16
ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, February 17
ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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