Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, June 20
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the central Plains mainly this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, severe winds (some 75+ mph), and a few tornadoes are possible.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 30%
hail 30%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 201609
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026
Valid 201630Z - 211200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the central Plains mainly this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, severe winds (some 75+ mph), and a few tornadoes are possible.
Central Plains
Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over ID/UT tracking eastward toward the central High Plains. Southerly/southeasterly low-level winds ahead of this feature over parts of eastern CO/western NE/KS will help to maintain a moist and moderately unstable air mass across the region, especially as low clouds continue to burn off and afternoon heating commences. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by mid-afternoon over central WY down into central CO in favored terrain/convergence areas. This activity will spread eastward into a progressively more moist/unstable air mass and intensify into supercells. A corridor of favorable vertical shear will develop later today from northeast CO into southwest NE/northwest KS for isolated tornadoes. Otherwise, very large hail and damaging winds will be the main concerns. Activity is likely to organize upscale during the evening and spread across KS with a damaging wind risk persisting much of the night.
Southeast
A very moist and moderately unstable air mass is present again today over much of the southeast US. Most CAM solutions suggest scattered afternoon thunderstorms across this area, including along the FL east coast. Dewpoints in the 70s and PWAT values around 2 inches, coupled with strong daytime heating and steep low-level lapse rates suggest a risk of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts in the most intense cores.
..Hart/Moore.. 06/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Sunday, June 21
Outlook Summary
Severe storms are possible along a frontal zone from the Ohio Valley to the central High Plains from Sunday afternoon into night. Large to very large hail, severe winds, and tornadoes (some of which could be strong) will be possible.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 201723
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Severe storms are possible along a frontal zone from the Ohio Valley to the central High Plains from Sunday afternoon into night. Large to very large hail, severe winds, and tornadoes (some of which could be strong) will be possible.
Synopsis
A series of vorticity maxima, some with convective origins, will translate east through the central Plains and OH Valley, along with a belt of 40-50+ kt winds at 500 mb. In the lower levels, a southwesterly low-level jet (LLJ) initially from the southern Plains into the mid MO Valley Sunday morning is forecast to migrate east into the mid MS and OH Valleys, immediately ahead of a surface low tracking through the lower MO Valley into IL/IN. A cold front will trail the surface low, likely extending southwest through the lower MO Valley into southern KS or northern OK and the TX Panhandle by mid to late afternoon.
### Missouri into the OH Valley
Latest models remain consistent with previous runs in depicting one or multiple MCSs ongoing at 12Z Sunday along the LLJ axis from eastern KS into parts of northern and central MO. While the models signal a general decrease in storm coverage through the morning, the presence of modestly strong vertical shear suggests the potential for isolated occurrences of damaging winds and perhaps some hail across MO into western IL.
Renewed storm development is anticipated by afternoon from IL/IN in the vicinity of a remnant MCV west/southwest along the trailing outflow/warm frontal boundary to the primary surface low over the lower MO Valley. Enhanced warm thermal and moisture fluxes occurring along the LLJ are expected to support air mass recovery in the wake of the early-day storms with moderate to potentially strong instability forecast from the lower OH Valley into the Ozarks, south of the composite boundary.
Forecast soundings and plan-view kinematic fields indicate relatively strong low-level and deep-layer shear in the vicinity of the composite boundary across portions of MO/IL/IN Sunday afternoon into evening, where the highest probability of supercells and/or bowing structures capable of all hazards (including strong tornadoes) is expected to exist. However, as was alluded to in the initial Day 2 discussion, and is still the case, there is considerable latitudinal variability in the composite boundary location. As such, uncertainty remains too high to delineate higher severe-weather probabilities for this region.
### Central High Plains
A trailing vorticity lobe and western extension of a 40-50 kt mid-level jet maximum are expected to support weak cyclogenesis along a front or trough pushing into the region from the west. Ahead of that boundary, steep low/mid-level lapse rates and modest boundary-layer moisture content are expected to yield moderate afternoon instability amidst sufficiently strong deep-layer shear to support supercell storm modes capable of large to very large hail. Most recent model guidance has shifted the corridor of preferred storm development and residence slightly east across portions of western and central NE into northwest KS, and the severe-weather probabilities have been adjusted accordingly. Storms may congeal into clusters Sunday evening with the severe-weather threat transitioning more to damaging winds.
### Southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma into the Ozark Plateau
High-resolution model guidance suggests that a sub-synoptic-scale surface low/frontal wave may evolve Sunday afternoon along the trailing front. Enhanced convergence near and east of that feature should be sufficient to overcome the cap and allow for isolated to widely scattered storm development. The combination of moderate to strong instability and around 40 kt of deep-layer shear will support supercells as the initial storm mode with a risk for large to very large hail. A largely parallel orientation of the deep shear vector to the surface front suggests the potential for merging storms within a few hours after initiation, with damaging wind potential increasing at that time. Storms are expected to grow upscale into one or multiple MCSs with at least an isolated damaging-wind threat spreading south through the Ozark Plateau region Sunday night.
..Mead.. 06/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Monday, June 22
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe storms are expected along a frontal zone that extends from the mid-Atlantic to the Mid-South and southern Plains and into the central High Plains on Monday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 200738
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID-SOUTH AND INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC.
CORRECTED FOR CAPITALIZATION IN THE SUMMARY
SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe storms are expected along a frontal zone that extends from the mid-Atlantic to the Mid-South and southern Plains and into the central High Plains on Monday.
Synopsis
A flat ridge is forecast across the western CONUS with broad cyclonic flow from the southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic. Within this zone, several embedded mid-level shortwave troughs are expected, the strongest of which will move from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic during the day Monday. A weak surface low will likely be associated with this lead shortwave trough with an additional lee trough, likely across the southern High Plains. A frontal zone will extend between these 2 features and act as the primary focus for storm development through the period on Monday.
Central/southern Plains
A MCS should be ongoing at the beginning of the period across parts of Oklahoma on the nose of the low-level jet. An outflow boundary will likely extend westward from this MCS into parts of Northwest Texas and into the Texas Panhandle.
Very strong to extreme instability is forecast across the southern Plains on Monday with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s and steep lapse rates. Model guidance is consistent showing a weak mid-level shortwave trough emerging across the southern Plains by 00Z Tuesday with 30 to 35 knots of mid-level flow. The combination of this shortwave trough and the potential for an outflow boundary intersecting the dryline may result in a more focused area of severe potential Monday afternoon/evening. However, due to the mesoscale nature of this potential, confidence is not high enough to add a Slight Risk at this time.
Mid South
Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop ahead of the MCS across Oklahoma and Arkansas Monday morning. Given the very moist airmass, inhibition should be eroded by mid-day. Therefore, reintensification of the morning MCS or additional development to the east along the front (likely a combination of both) is expected from near the Red River to northern Mississippi. This strong instability, combined with modest shear, will support some damaging wind threat with a southeastward moving cluster of storms Monday afternoon/evening.
Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic
A moist airmass will move into the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic on Monday ahead of an eastward moving cold front. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak which will limit overall instability, but moderate shear and sufficient instability, combined with steep low-level lapse rates will support some damaging wind threat Monday afternoon/evening. In addition, a smaller area of greater low-level shear may exist closer to the surface low across northern Virginia and vicinity, which could have a localized region of greater tornado threat.
..Bentley.. 06/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Tuesday, June 23
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, June 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, June 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, June 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, June 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, June 27 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 201605 SPC AC 201605
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
CORRECTED FOR TYPO
DISCUSSION
An extended period of moderate northwesterly flow across the High Plains will lead to severe weather potential across the central High Plains. Upslope flow amid 30 to 50 knots mid-level winds should result in a severe weather environment, potentially on Tuesday, and particularly Wednesday and Thursday. The front will shift based on small-scale embedded shortwave disturbances and the prior day's convection, which will shift the location of the unstable warm sector. This results in uncertainty regarding the location of the threat for each day. This will continue to be monitored for potential areas to be added later.
Ridging will slide east across the Rockies and into the Plains by next weekend. Some severe weather threat may exist through this time as multiple embedded shortwave troughs will be within this region as instability increases across the Plains.
While it is mostly beyond Day 8, it is worth noting that deterministic, ensemble, and AI guidance all indicate a strong jet streak and mid-level trough traversing the Rockies toward the end of next weekend and into early next week. A strong lee cyclone would accompany this with strong instability across the Plains. There is still uncertainty with the timing and location of the trough, but given the agreement in this general pattern change, a substantial severe weather threat seems possible by the end of next weekend and early into the following week across portions of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest.
..Bentley.. 06/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, June 24
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, June 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, June 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, June 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, June 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, June 27 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 201605 SPC AC 201605
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
CORRECTED FOR TYPO
DISCUSSION
An extended period of moderate northwesterly flow across the High Plains will lead to severe weather potential across the central High Plains. Upslope flow amid 30 to 50 knots mid-level winds should result in a severe weather environment, potentially on Tuesday, and particularly Wednesday and Thursday. The front will shift based on small-scale embedded shortwave disturbances and the prior day's convection, which will shift the location of the unstable warm sector. This results in uncertainty regarding the location of the threat for each day. This will continue to be monitored for potential areas to be added later.
Ridging will slide east across the Rockies and into the Plains by next weekend. Some severe weather threat may exist through this time as multiple embedded shortwave troughs will be within this region as instability increases across the Plains.
While it is mostly beyond Day 8, it is worth noting that deterministic, ensemble, and AI guidance all indicate a strong jet streak and mid-level trough traversing the Rockies toward the end of next weekend and into early next week. A strong lee cyclone would accompany this with strong instability across the Plains. There is still uncertainty with the timing and location of the trough, but given the agreement in this general pattern change, a substantial severe weather threat seems possible by the end of next weekend and early into the following week across portions of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest.
..Bentley.. 06/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, June 25
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, June 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, June 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, June 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, June 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, June 27 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 201605 SPC AC 201605
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
CORRECTED FOR TYPO
DISCUSSION
An extended period of moderate northwesterly flow across the High Plains will lead to severe weather potential across the central High Plains. Upslope flow amid 30 to 50 knots mid-level winds should result in a severe weather environment, potentially on Tuesday, and particularly Wednesday and Thursday. The front will shift based on small-scale embedded shortwave disturbances and the prior day's convection, which will shift the location of the unstable warm sector. This results in uncertainty regarding the location of the threat for each day. This will continue to be monitored for potential areas to be added later.
Ridging will slide east across the Rockies and into the Plains by next weekend. Some severe weather threat may exist through this time as multiple embedded shortwave troughs will be within this region as instability increases across the Plains.
While it is mostly beyond Day 8, it is worth noting that deterministic, ensemble, and AI guidance all indicate a strong jet streak and mid-level trough traversing the Rockies toward the end of next weekend and into early next week. A strong lee cyclone would accompany this with strong instability across the Plains. There is still uncertainty with the timing and location of the trough, but given the agreement in this general pattern change, a substantial severe weather threat seems possible by the end of next weekend and early into the following week across portions of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest.
..Bentley.. 06/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, June 26
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, June 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, June 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, June 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, June 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, June 27 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 201605 SPC AC 201605
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
CORRECTED FOR TYPO
DISCUSSION
An extended period of moderate northwesterly flow across the High Plains will lead to severe weather potential across the central High Plains. Upslope flow amid 30 to 50 knots mid-level winds should result in a severe weather environment, potentially on Tuesday, and particularly Wednesday and Thursday. The front will shift based on small-scale embedded shortwave disturbances and the prior day's convection, which will shift the location of the unstable warm sector. This results in uncertainty regarding the location of the threat for each day. This will continue to be monitored for potential areas to be added later.
Ridging will slide east across the Rockies and into the Plains by next weekend. Some severe weather threat may exist through this time as multiple embedded shortwave troughs will be within this region as instability increases across the Plains.
While it is mostly beyond Day 8, it is worth noting that deterministic, ensemble, and AI guidance all indicate a strong jet streak and mid-level trough traversing the Rockies toward the end of next weekend and into early next week. A strong lee cyclone would accompany this with strong instability across the Plains. There is still uncertainty with the timing and location of the trough, but given the agreement in this general pattern change, a substantial severe weather threat seems possible by the end of next weekend and early into the following week across portions of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest.
..Bentley.. 06/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, June 27
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, June 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, June 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, June 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, June 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, June 27 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 201605 SPC AC 201605
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
CORRECTED FOR TYPO
DISCUSSION
An extended period of moderate northwesterly flow across the High Plains will lead to severe weather potential across the central High Plains. Upslope flow amid 30 to 50 knots mid-level winds should result in a severe weather environment, potentially on Tuesday, and particularly Wednesday and Thursday. The front will shift based on small-scale embedded shortwave disturbances and the prior day's convection, which will shift the location of the unstable warm sector. This results in uncertainty regarding the location of the threat for each day. This will continue to be monitored for potential areas to be added later.
Ridging will slide east across the Rockies and into the Plains by next weekend. Some severe weather threat may exist through this time as multiple embedded shortwave troughs will be within this region as instability increases across the Plains.
While it is mostly beyond Day 8, it is worth noting that deterministic, ensemble, and AI guidance all indicate a strong jet streak and mid-level trough traversing the Rockies toward the end of next weekend and into early next week. A strong lee cyclone would accompany this with strong instability across the Plains. There is still uncertainty with the timing and location of the trough, but given the agreement in this general pattern change, a substantial severe weather threat seems possible by the end of next weekend and early into the following week across portions of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest.
..Bentley.. 06/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, June 20
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 30%
- WIND: 30%
- Sunday, June 21
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Monday, June 22
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Tuesday, June 23
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, June 24
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, June 25
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, June 26
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, June 27
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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