Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, May 7
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe storms will remain possible across portions of northern Florida into Georgia and parts of the Carolinas.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 071948
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Thu May 07 2026
Valid 072000Z - 081200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe storms will remain possible across portions of northern Florida into Georgia and parts of the Carolinas.
20z Update
MRMS VIL has depicted a weakening trend in convection across the FL Panhandle and northern FL over the past 1-2 hours as convection migrates east into a more deeply mixed/drier air mass. A downstream 18 UTC sounding from JAX sampled diminished mid-level lapse rates and increased inhibition as well, casting doubt on the potential for re-intensification across north FL through the afternoon. For this reason, 15% wind and 5% tornado risk probabilities were removed, though recent high-res guidance suggests that a strong storm or two will remain possible as the surface cold front continues to push southeast through early evening. Further northeast into GA and the Carolinas, gradual clearing has allowed temperatures to warm into the low to mid 70s amid low/mid 60s dewpoints. This is supporting modest MLCAPE values (500 J/kg or less) within an otherwise strongly sheared environment. Given these trends, opted to maintain low-end wind probabilities to account for isolated strong convection capable of damaging winds.
Across southern/central TX, elevated convection has shown a similar weakening trend over the past few hours. While transient stronger updrafts will remain possible given residual MUCAPE sampled by regional ACARS soundings, the recent convective trends coupled with nebulous forcing for ascent and minimal updraft/UH signal in recent CAM guidance lends enough confidence to remove 5% hail probabilities.
..Moore.. 05/07/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026/
FL Panhandle into north FL and far southern GA
A mid-level vorticity lobe over the Mid South is forecast to rapidly move east and reach the NC Outer Banks by mid evening. Late morning satellite/radar imagery shows a broken band of strong to severe thunderstorms ahead of a cold front and draped west-southwest to east-northeast. A moist and fully modified boundary layer extends from the northeast Gulf into the FL Panhandle and Big Bend with notably drier air over interior north FL. Convergence along the front is forecast to weaken late today into tonight as a weak low over the Carolinas shifts offshore. However, the prefrontal airmass will remain moist, moderately unstable, and strongly sheared (50+ kt effective shear) across the FL Panhandle vicinity through the mid afternoon. Embedded cells within the bands will potentially be capable of wind damage and perhaps a brief tornado before this activity gradually weakens as it moves into a less-buoyant regime farther east of north FL.
Carolinas… Some thinning of cloud cover and modest heating ahead of the cold front will yield weak buoyancy prior to the front clearing the coast later today. Weak low-level lapse rates will tend to limit the overall severe risk (i.e., localized wind damage potential). However, will maintain low wind probabilities this outlook update due to the possibility for a couple of deeper updrafts to organize within a region with strong deep-layer wind fields.
Edwards Plateau into the Lower Rio Grande Valley
Elevated buoyancy will likely persist throughout the day with a few stronger updrafts intermittently developing over the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau. Strong deep-layer vertical shear (i.e. effective bulk shear from 50 to 60 kt) and 1000+ J/kg MUCAPE may support the potential for an isolated risk for marginally severe hail. Farther south and displaced away from the higher terrain, very low thunderstorm coverage is expected despite a modifying and more moist airmass. Have trimmed hail probabilities over this region due to the lack of storm coverage in the latest model guidance.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Friday, May 8
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Friday through Friday night from parts of Oklahoma/Texas into the Ozarks, lower Mississippi Valley, and Gulf Coast states. Occasional large hail and damaging gusts should be the main threats.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 071725
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Thu May 07 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS…LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY…AND GULF COAST STATES
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Friday through Friday night from parts of Oklahoma/Texas into the Ozarks, lower Mississippi Valley, and Gulf Coast states. Occasional large hail and damaging gusts should be the main threats.
Synopsis
With an upper low forecast to remain over Hudson Bay, a mid/upper-level shortwave trough should develop southeastward Friday across much of the northern/central Plains into the upper/mid MS Valley. Shallow/limited low-level moisture will advance northward across the southern Plains into the Ozarks ahead of a southeastward-moving surface cold front. An initially separate mid-level low over northern Mexico Friday morning should devlove into an open wave through the day as it slowly shifts eastward into TX through Friday evening. Greater low-level moisture (mid 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints) should spread northward through the period across TX into the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast states along an effective warm front, with a weak surface low forecast to develop over northwest TX by early Friday evening. A surface dryline extending south-southwestward from this low across west TX towards the Big Bend is forecast to gradually sharpen through the day.
Oklahoma/Southeast Kansas into Missouri/Arkansas
Even with the somewhat limited low-level moisture expected ahead of the cold front by Friday afternoon, the presence of modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates and daytime heating should contribute to around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE in a narrow corridor along/near the front. Large-scale ascent associated with the mid/upper-level shortwave trough should aid in the development of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across northern OK into the MO Ozarks by late Friday afternoon. With moderate to locally strong deep-layer shear aiding updraft organization, the strongest cores could produce occasional severe hail and/or damaging winds through Friday evening as they track east-southeastward before eventually weakening with the loss of daytime heating. Confidence in a more focused severe corridor across this region remains too low for a categorical upgrade with this update, mainly due to the limited moisture/instability forecast.
Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast
Thunderstorms should form by late Friday afternoon/early evening across the higher terrain of north-central/northeast Mexico, as large-scale ascent preceding the southern-stream upper low/trough overspreads this area. A rather moist low-level airmass will be in place across south-central TX along/south of a warm front. While some MLCIN will likely persist through peak heating, it appears that moderate to locally strong MUCAPE coupled with around 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear will support organized convection, including the potential for supercells. While some uncertainty remains regarding how may supercells may develop eastward from Mexico into south-central TX, the favorable environment supports inclusion of 5% hail/wind probabilities and a Marginal Risk.
Large-scale forcing appears more nebulous/weak across north/central TX in between the surface cold front in OK and the upper low/trough in northern Mexico. Daytime heating should help erode MLCIN along/near the dryline in northwest/north-central to west-central TX, and the cap does not appear overly strong across these areas. Still, considerable uncertainty remains whether sustained surface-based convection will occur Friday afternoon/evening along/east of the dryline in TX. Even so, have expanded the Marginal Risk southward to account for a conditional hail/wind threat if convection initiates.
Farther east into the lower MS Valley and Gulf Coast states, some guidance suggests robust thunderstorms may form through the day mainly along/north of the remnant front. This activity will likely be related to small-scale mid-level perturbations and weak low-level warm advection. Sufficient MUCAPE amid strong deep-layer shear may support organized cells/clusters capable of producing both isolated severe hail and occasional damaging winds. Other strong to severe convection may form Friday afternoon along the Atlantic Coast sea breeze in northeast/east-central FL. The potential for additional robust convection Friday night into early Saturday morning across the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley remains unclear. But, some chance for persistent convection amid a gradually destabilizing airmass and strengthening low-level warm/moist advection suggests at least an isolated severe hail/wind risk may linger through the overnight hours.
..Gleason.. 05/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Saturday, May 9
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across parts of the southern/central Plains, and from east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 071922
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Thu May 07 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS…AND FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across parts of the southern/central Plains, and from east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast.
Southern/Central Plains
Within large-scale upper troughing encompassing much of the central/eastern CONUS and Canada, a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to develop southeastward from the northern Rockies/High Plains towards the central High Plains by Saturday evening. Weak lee cyclogenesis should occur over the southern/central High Plains, with modest low-level moisture forecast to return northward across north TX into OK to the east of a surface dryline. High-based convection should develop Saturday afternoon across eastern CO into western KS, with locally gusty winds possible.
A somewhat greater severe wind and hail risk should exist late Saturday afternoon and evening across the eastern TX Panhandle, southwest KS, and into OK where weak to locally moderate instability should be in place. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty how far north greater low-level moisture and related instability will advance, but any cells that can form could pose an isolated threat for large hail and damaging winds given sufficient deep-layer shear for modest updraft organization. Have expanded the Marginal Risk a bit in OK and the eastern TX Panhandle to account for potential surface-based development along the dryline, and for a possible cluster/MCS Saturday evening.
East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast
Thunderstorms should be ongoing at the start of the period Saturday morning across parts of the lower MS Valley/Southeast. This activity may tend to remain elevated to the north of a surface front through Saturday morning. But, increasing potential for surface-based thunderstorms should exist as daytime heating along/south of the front occurs, and as a weak mid-level shortwave trough advances eastward from east TX into the northern Gulf and vicinity. One or more clusters may eventually evolve and pose some risk for damaging winds as they spread east-southeastward across parts of the lower MS Valley/Southeast through the afternoon and early evening. Isolated severe hail may also occur with somewhat more discrete convection across portions of east TX into LA, where steeper mid-level lapse rates and greater instability are forecast to exist.
..Gleason.. 05/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Sunday, May 10
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, May 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, May 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, May 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, May 14 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070728 SPC AC 070728
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper-level pattern is forecast during the Day 4-8/Sun-Thu period. Early in the period, an upper trough will move from the Plains to the eastern U.S. through Day 5/Mon. Stronger northwesterly flow will overspread the Plains during this time, while a cold front will sag southward across TX and Gulf Coast states. This will suppress boundary layer moisture across much of the CONUS, but could bring some potential for strong thunderstorms to parts of TX and the Southeast, though severe thunderstorm potential appears marginal.
By Day 6/Tue, a deepening surface low is forecast across the central Plains as a weak shortwave impulse migrating through northwesterly flow aloft glaces the region. Increasing southerly low-level flow will begin to transport Gulf moisture northward across portions of the central U.S. through Day 7/Wed, and some increase in thunderstorm potential is expected. At the same time an upper ridge will begin to emerge over the Plains, which could lead to capping. Additionally, quality of moisture return is uncertain with northward extent. Overall, severe potential appears marginal throughout the Day 4-8/Sun-Thu period.
..Leitman.. 05/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, May 11
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, May 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, May 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, May 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, May 14 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070728 SPC AC 070728
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper-level pattern is forecast during the Day 4-8/Sun-Thu period. Early in the period, an upper trough will move from the Plains to the eastern U.S. through Day 5/Mon. Stronger northwesterly flow will overspread the Plains during this time, while a cold front will sag southward across TX and Gulf Coast states. This will suppress boundary layer moisture across much of the CONUS, but could bring some potential for strong thunderstorms to parts of TX and the Southeast, though severe thunderstorm potential appears marginal.
By Day 6/Tue, a deepening surface low is forecast across the central Plains as a weak shortwave impulse migrating through northwesterly flow aloft glaces the region. Increasing southerly low-level flow will begin to transport Gulf moisture northward across portions of the central U.S. through Day 7/Wed, and some increase in thunderstorm potential is expected. At the same time an upper ridge will begin to emerge over the Plains, which could lead to capping. Additionally, quality of moisture return is uncertain with northward extent. Overall, severe potential appears marginal throughout the Day 4-8/Sun-Thu period.
..Leitman.. 05/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, May 12
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, May 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, May 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, May 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, May 14 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070728 SPC AC 070728
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper-level pattern is forecast during the Day 4-8/Sun-Thu period. Early in the period, an upper trough will move from the Plains to the eastern U.S. through Day 5/Mon. Stronger northwesterly flow will overspread the Plains during this time, while a cold front will sag southward across TX and Gulf Coast states. This will suppress boundary layer moisture across much of the CONUS, but could bring some potential for strong thunderstorms to parts of TX and the Southeast, though severe thunderstorm potential appears marginal.
By Day 6/Tue, a deepening surface low is forecast across the central Plains as a weak shortwave impulse migrating through northwesterly flow aloft glaces the region. Increasing southerly low-level flow will begin to transport Gulf moisture northward across portions of the central U.S. through Day 7/Wed, and some increase in thunderstorm potential is expected. At the same time an upper ridge will begin to emerge over the Plains, which could lead to capping. Additionally, quality of moisture return is uncertain with northward extent. Overall, severe potential appears marginal throughout the Day 4-8/Sun-Thu period.
..Leitman.. 05/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, May 13
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, May 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, May 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, May 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, May 14 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070728 SPC AC 070728
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper-level pattern is forecast during the Day 4-8/Sun-Thu period. Early in the period, an upper trough will move from the Plains to the eastern U.S. through Day 5/Mon. Stronger northwesterly flow will overspread the Plains during this time, while a cold front will sag southward across TX and Gulf Coast states. This will suppress boundary layer moisture across much of the CONUS, but could bring some potential for strong thunderstorms to parts of TX and the Southeast, though severe thunderstorm potential appears marginal.
By Day 6/Tue, a deepening surface low is forecast across the central Plains as a weak shortwave impulse migrating through northwesterly flow aloft glaces the region. Increasing southerly low-level flow will begin to transport Gulf moisture northward across portions of the central U.S. through Day 7/Wed, and some increase in thunderstorm potential is expected. At the same time an upper ridge will begin to emerge over the Plains, which could lead to capping. Additionally, quality of moisture return is uncertain with northward extent. Overall, severe potential appears marginal throughout the Day 4-8/Sun-Thu period.
..Leitman.. 05/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, May 14
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, May 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, May 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, May 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, May 14 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070728 SPC AC 070728
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper-level pattern is forecast during the Day 4-8/Sun-Thu period. Early in the period, an upper trough will move from the Plains to the eastern U.S. through Day 5/Mon. Stronger northwesterly flow will overspread the Plains during this time, while a cold front will sag southward across TX and Gulf Coast states. This will suppress boundary layer moisture across much of the CONUS, but could bring some potential for strong thunderstorms to parts of TX and the Southeast, though severe thunderstorm potential appears marginal.
By Day 6/Tue, a deepening surface low is forecast across the central Plains as a weak shortwave impulse migrating through northwesterly flow aloft glaces the region. Increasing southerly low-level flow will begin to transport Gulf moisture northward across portions of the central U.S. through Day 7/Wed, and some increase in thunderstorm potential is expected. At the same time an upper ridge will begin to emerge over the Plains, which could lead to capping. Additionally, quality of moisture return is uncertain with northward extent. Overall, severe potential appears marginal throughout the Day 4-8/Sun-Thu period.
..Leitman.. 05/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, May 7
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Friday, May 8
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Saturday, May 9
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Sunday, May 10
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, May 11
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, May 12
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, May 13
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, May 14
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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