Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, October 31
Outlook Summary
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 311953
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026
Valid 312000Z - 011200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
20z Update
Broad/diffluent southwesterly flow aloft continues to overspread the Southwest. Visible satellite shows high clouds entering the region, with filtered insolation resulting in some destabilization (200-300 J/kg MLCAPE) and cumulus development amid a moist boundary layer across portions of southern AZ and across southern NV. Despite ample shear that will increase throughout the remainder of the day, the notably weak instability (perhaps peaking near 500 J/kg) will limit the severe potential with any thunderstorm activity. Nonetheless, general thunderstorm potential has been extended into parts of southern NV.
Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details.
..Karstens.. 10/31/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026/
Synopsis and Discussion
Downstream of weak mid-level troughing, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible through tonight across parts of the lower MS Valley into the FL Panhandle and Peninsula as low-level moisture gradually advances northward across these regions. Limited overlap of sufficient instability and deep-layer shear to support organized updrafts should preclude severe thunderstorms across these areas.
Across the western CONUS, isolated convection appears possible through the period across parts of central CA into the northern Great Basin, and portions of southern/central AZ. Southwesterly mid-level flow is forecast to strengthen across both of these regions as upper troughing amplifies over the West Coast and as a mid/upper-level subtropical jet overspreads the Southwest. However, weak instability and modest mid-level lapse rates will likely hinder severe thunderstorm potential through early Sunday morning.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Sunday, November 1
Outlook Summary
A few severe storms are anticipated from parts of southern Arizona into New Mexico and the western Texas Panhandle Sunday into Sunday night, with at least isolated damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes possible.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 311730
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA ACROSS NEW MEXICO TO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
### SUMMARY
A few severe storms are anticipated from parts of southern Arizona into New Mexico and the western Texas Panhandle Sunday into Sunday night, with at least isolated damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes possible.
Southern Rockies to southern High Plains
A midlevel trough just off the northern CA coast will progress inland to the Four Corners by early Monday. This will be preceded by the rapid northeastward ejection of a subtropical speed max now near 27 N and 128 W. A surface cyclone is expected to consolidate in the lee of the CO Rockies by Sunday night with increasing low-level mass response and northward advection of low-level moisture from TX to KS.
The lead speed max will cross southern AZ Sunday afternoon and NM Sunday night. Cloud cover and precipitation the past few days, plus an expansive swath of midlevel moisture in advance of the subtropical wave, will tend to limit lapse rates across the elevated mixed layer source region. However, unusually moist profiles will also contribute to at least weak buoyancy into the higher terrain from southern AZ into NM, and the buoyancy is unlikely to be tied very strongly to the diurnal heating cycle. As such, there will be the potential for bands of convection to accompany the ejecting speed max Sunday into Sunday night, both across AZ and especially NM. Wind profiles will be quite strong with long hodographs and weakly buoyant, moist profiles, similar to cool season severe events in the Southeast. Will expand the MRGL risk for embedded supercells and/or bowing segments capable of producing occasional severe outflow gusts and a couple of tornadoes, and a SLGT risk upgrade is a possibility in later updates across NM.
..Thompson.. 10/31/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Monday, November 2
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe storms may develop across parts of the central to southern Plains Monday from late afternoon into the evening, with damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes the main threats.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 311929
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS ACROSS OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe storms may develop across parts of the central to southern Plains Monday from late afternoon into the evening, with damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes the main threats.
Central/southern Plains
A lead speed max is expected to eject quickly northeastward from the central Plains to the upper MS Valley as an initial lee cyclone likewise moves northeastward from northeast CO to southwest MN and weakens gradually. Secondary cyclogenesis is then expected across KS in advance of the primary shortwave trough progressing eastward from the southern Rockies to the southern/central Plains. The secondary cyclone in KS will help maintain a 40-50 kt southerly low-level jet through Monday afternoon/evening from eastern KS into eastern OK, with associated northward advection of mid 60s boundary-layer dewpoints in the warm sector.
Midlevel lapse rates will be limited by prior days clouds/precipitation across the upstream source region, but convective inhibition will also be weak. The aforementioned low-level moisture, in combination with daytime heating in cloud breaks associated with the midlevel dry slot, will support MLCAPE in the 1000-1500 J/kg range. Scattered thunderstorm development appears probable by mid-late afternoon from just east of the KS triple point southward along the dry line/Pacific cold front into western OK. Deep-layer vertical shear and forcing for ascent will favor a mix of supercells and line segments capable of producing severe outflow gusts and a few tornadoes, as well as isolated large hail initially. Storms should tend to evolve into more linear structures into Monday night with a continued threat for occasional wind damage and/or a couple of tornadoes with embedded circulations.
..Thompson.. 10/31/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Tuesday, November 3
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, November 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, November 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, November 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, November 6 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, November 7 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 310807 SPC AC 310807
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
An amplified upper trough over the Plains will move toward the MS Valley on Tue/D4, with moderate southerly winds aloft from LA to the Upper Great Lakes. A moist air mass will exist ahead of a cold front which will move toward the lower to middle MS Valley, supporting rain and storms from the Sabine Valley during the afternoon, and into the TN Valley by Wed/D5 morning. This setup could favor isolated strong to severe storms, with locally strong wind gusts.
For Wed/D5 into Thu/D6, the system may take on more of a negative tilt, and moisture return will result in expanding precipitation across the Southeast as interacts with an antecedent surface ridge, which should minimize instability. Shear also looks to be marginal with mainly unidirectional out of the south aloft.
..Jewell.. 10/31/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, November 4
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, November 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, November 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, November 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, November 6 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, November 7 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 310807 SPC AC 310807
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
An amplified upper trough over the Plains will move toward the MS Valley on Tue/D4, with moderate southerly winds aloft from LA to the Upper Great Lakes. A moist air mass will exist ahead of a cold front which will move toward the lower to middle MS Valley, supporting rain and storms from the Sabine Valley during the afternoon, and into the TN Valley by Wed/D5 morning. This setup could favor isolated strong to severe storms, with locally strong wind gusts.
For Wed/D5 into Thu/D6, the system may take on more of a negative tilt, and moisture return will result in expanding precipitation across the Southeast as interacts with an antecedent surface ridge, which should minimize instability. Shear also looks to be marginal with mainly unidirectional out of the south aloft.
..Jewell.. 10/31/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, November 5
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, November 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, November 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, November 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, November 6 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, November 7 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 310807 SPC AC 310807
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
An amplified upper trough over the Plains will move toward the MS Valley on Tue/D4, with moderate southerly winds aloft from LA to the Upper Great Lakes. A moist air mass will exist ahead of a cold front which will move toward the lower to middle MS Valley, supporting rain and storms from the Sabine Valley during the afternoon, and into the TN Valley by Wed/D5 morning. This setup could favor isolated strong to severe storms, with locally strong wind gusts.
For Wed/D5 into Thu/D6, the system may take on more of a negative tilt, and moisture return will result in expanding precipitation across the Southeast as interacts with an antecedent surface ridge, which should minimize instability. Shear also looks to be marginal with mainly unidirectional out of the south aloft.
..Jewell.. 10/31/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, November 6
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, November 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, November 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, November 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, November 6 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, November 7 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 310807 SPC AC 310807
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
An amplified upper trough over the Plains will move toward the MS Valley on Tue/D4, with moderate southerly winds aloft from LA to the Upper Great Lakes. A moist air mass will exist ahead of a cold front which will move toward the lower to middle MS Valley, supporting rain and storms from the Sabine Valley during the afternoon, and into the TN Valley by Wed/D5 morning. This setup could favor isolated strong to severe storms, with locally strong wind gusts.
For Wed/D5 into Thu/D6, the system may take on more of a negative tilt, and moisture return will result in expanding precipitation across the Southeast as interacts with an antecedent surface ridge, which should minimize instability. Shear also looks to be marginal with mainly unidirectional out of the south aloft.
..Jewell.. 10/31/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, November 7
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, November 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, November 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, November 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, November 6 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, November 7 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 310807 SPC AC 310807
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
An amplified upper trough over the Plains will move toward the MS Valley on Tue/D4, with moderate southerly winds aloft from LA to the Upper Great Lakes. A moist air mass will exist ahead of a cold front which will move toward the lower to middle MS Valley, supporting rain and storms from the Sabine Valley during the afternoon, and into the TN Valley by Wed/D5 morning. This setup could favor isolated strong to severe storms, with locally strong wind gusts.
For Wed/D5 into Thu/D6, the system may take on more of a negative tilt, and moisture return will result in expanding precipitation across the Southeast as interacts with an antecedent surface ridge, which should minimize instability. Shear also looks to be marginal with mainly unidirectional out of the south aloft.
..Jewell.. 10/31/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, October 31
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Sunday, November 1
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Monday, November 2
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Tuesday, November 3
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, November 4
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, November 5
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, November 6
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, November 7
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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