Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, June 27
Outlook Summary
The threat for isolated very large hail (2+ inches in diameter) and swaths of severe outflow gusts (potentially exceeding 80 mph) will persist through early tonight across the Dakotas and far eastern Montana. A couple of tornadoes will also be possible with lingering supercells this evening and embedded circulations within the larger clusters.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 30%
hail 30%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 280059
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026
Valid 280100Z - 281200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND VICINITY
### SUMMARY
The threat for isolated very large hail (2+ inches in diameter) and swaths of severe outflow gusts (potentially exceeding 80 mph) will persist through early tonight across the Dakotas and far eastern Montana. A couple of tornadoes will also be possible with lingering supercells this evening and embedded circulations within the larger clusters.
Northern Plains
Thunderstorms have been growing upscale into the primary cluster over southwest ND, with additional frontal convection into eastern MT and another cluster moving off the lee trough in southwest SD. Vertical shear and buoyancy remain favorable for supercells with isolated very large hail, though the clear trend to the expected cluster/linear mode suggests that severe outflow gusts of 60-85+ mph will be the main threat across the western Dakotas through early tonight. A few tornadoes are still possible late this evening with lingering supercells from west central ND to northwest NE per the 00z BIS and LBF soundings, though the threat will transition more to embedded circulations within line segments across SD/ND. The ND cluster is expected to weaken late tonight across central/eastern ND, while the SD cluster may persist longer in a strengthening warm advection regime, though the severe threat will slowly diminish with eastward extent as the convection becomes elevated.
Eastern MO to KY/TN
Multiple, remnant MCVs are moving eastward from eastern MO across KY to NC. Prior convection has overturned much of NC, where the threat for wind damage has diminished. There will still be a low-end wind damage threat where the MCVs move along the northern gradient of somewhat larger buoyancy from eastern MO to KY/TN. A brief tornado may also occur in the short term with supercell structures in the warm advection zone where low-level shear is slightly enhanced on the southwest flank of the primary MCV moving across KY.
West TX/southeast TX Panhandle in the short term
Only isolated deep convection has formed as of this evening across the Pecos Valley and near CDS. Lingering hot surface temperatures and inverted-V profiles could still support isolated severe outflow gusts through about 02-03z.
..Thompson.. 06/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Sunday, June 28
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern Plains into parts of the Upper Midwest on Sunday. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary hazards.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 271721
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern Plains into parts of the Upper Midwest on Sunday. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary hazards.
Northern Plains/Upper Midwest
A challenging forecast scenario is expected on Sunday across portions of the Dakotas into the Upper Midwest. Upper ridging is expected to amplify over the Mid/Upper MS Valley and western Great Lakes vicinity. This will result in capping concerns across the region owing to height rises and warming aloft, especially from the eastern Dakotas into the Upper Midwest. However, surface troughing will sharpen and extend southward across the central Dakotas into the central Plains. Meanwhile, a warm front/moisture gradient will extend southeastward from northern MN into WI and the southern Lake Michigan vicinity. Overnight, a surface low is forecast to mildly deepen somewhere from western NE into SD. Forecast guidance continues to show uncertainty in the evolution of this feature.
Southeasterly low-level flow will transport rich boundary layer moisture westward across the region, with dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70 F common. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the Red River and Upper MS Valley during the day, while lapse rates further west steepen during the evening/overnight. This will result in corridors of moderate to strong instability within the warm sector to the east of the surface trough and south of the warm front. However, given the building upper ridge, capping may persist across the region, limiting potential for surface-based convection.
Storms are expected to be ongoing Sunday morning across the eastern Dakotas and will spread east through the day. While this activity may be elevated, large hail is possible. A southerly low-level jet is expected to persist through the daytime, and if storms can become near-surface based, some damaging wind potential also would exist. It is unclear how far east this convection may persist as it crests the building upper ridge.
Overnight, convection is expected to develop near the surface low/trough on the leading edge of a strong southerly low-level jet across western or central SD. This activity may be elevated, but will likely initially be supercell mode with an attendant risk for large to very large hail. If convection grows upscale, some wind risk is also possible, but this is more uncertain given capping concerns.
Southern Mid-Atlantic
An MCV is expected to move across the NC vicinity on Sunday. Ahead of this feature, a seasonally very moist and moderately unstable airmass will be in place. Deep-layer flow will be modest, but the MCV may locally enhance vertical shear and provide support for a band of forward propagating convection moving off the higher terrain during the after and early evening. Sporadic strong/damaging wind gusts will be possible with these storms.
Southern Plains
A dryline will be oriented from western KS into southwest TX Sunday afternoon/evening. Strong heating is expected along the boundary along with sufficient dryline convergence. Deep boundary circulations and a narrow corridor of moderate instability will support isolated storm development. Strong downburst/outflow winds will be possible with these storms as generally weak vertical shear limits stronger updrafts longevity/organization.
..Leitman.. 06/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Monday, June 29
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest on Monday. Large hail and severe winds are the primary concerns.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 271917
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest on Monday. Large hail and severe winds are the primary concerns.
Central/Northern Plains to Upper Midwest
The forecast for Monday remains uncertain with forecast guidance depicting a wide envelop for severe potential across portions of the Missouri Valley into the Upper Midwest.
At the large scale, an upper ridge will persist from the central Gulf Coast northward to the Upper Great Lakes. Further west, a shortwave upper trough is forecast to eject from the central Rockies into Manitoba/western Ontario. This will bring a belt of enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow across the northern Plains and Upper MS Valley. At the surface, low pressure or an MCV over the Dakotas will lift generally northeast while a trough/surface front extends southward across the eastern Dakotas. The evolution of these features is uncertain, with some guidance lifting the low and any accompany severe risk quickly northward into Canada early in the day. Other guidance is slower and further south, favoring a corridor of severe potential across the eastern Dakotas and MN during the day. While these details remain a question mark, a very moist airmass will be in place with strong to extreme instability forecast. Depending on mesoscale details, an all-hazards severe risk could develop - though damaging wind and large hail appear most likely at this time. Given uncertainty, outlook changes are modest with this update.
..Leitman.. 06/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Tuesday, June 30
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, June 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, July 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, July 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, July 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, July 4 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270857 SPC AC 270857
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
The upper-level pattern from the middle of the new week onward will be relatively stagnant. The upper ridge in the East will remain entrenched while broad cyclonic flow will persist in the West before potentially breaking down by the weekend. This will drive a belt of weak to moderate mid-level southwesterlies across the central/northern Plains. Repeated lee trough development along with the surface high in the East will maintain rich moisture across parts of the Plains and especially the Midwest/Southeast. With large-scale features generally being weak, convective development will largely be reliant on terrain features, subtle shortwave troughs, or surface boundaries. With this pattern, at least low severe potential will exist within the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest into next weekend. Predictability will remain low, however, as large-scale features will be weaker and the influence of prior convection will increase with each successive day.
..Wendt.. 06/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, July 1
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, June 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, July 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, July 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, July 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, July 4 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270857 SPC AC 270857
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
The upper-level pattern from the middle of the new week onward will be relatively stagnant. The upper ridge in the East will remain entrenched while broad cyclonic flow will persist in the West before potentially breaking down by the weekend. This will drive a belt of weak to moderate mid-level southwesterlies across the central/northern Plains. Repeated lee trough development along with the surface high in the East will maintain rich moisture across parts of the Plains and especially the Midwest/Southeast. With large-scale features generally being weak, convective development will largely be reliant on terrain features, subtle shortwave troughs, or surface boundaries. With this pattern, at least low severe potential will exist within the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest into next weekend. Predictability will remain low, however, as large-scale features will be weaker and the influence of prior convection will increase with each successive day.
..Wendt.. 06/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, July 2
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, June 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, July 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, July 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, July 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, July 4 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270857 SPC AC 270857
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
The upper-level pattern from the middle of the new week onward will be relatively stagnant. The upper ridge in the East will remain entrenched while broad cyclonic flow will persist in the West before potentially breaking down by the weekend. This will drive a belt of weak to moderate mid-level southwesterlies across the central/northern Plains. Repeated lee trough development along with the surface high in the East will maintain rich moisture across parts of the Plains and especially the Midwest/Southeast. With large-scale features generally being weak, convective development will largely be reliant on terrain features, subtle shortwave troughs, or surface boundaries. With this pattern, at least low severe potential will exist within the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest into next weekend. Predictability will remain low, however, as large-scale features will be weaker and the influence of prior convection will increase with each successive day.
..Wendt.. 06/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, July 3
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, June 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, July 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, July 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, July 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, July 4 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270857 SPC AC 270857
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
The upper-level pattern from the middle of the new week onward will be relatively stagnant. The upper ridge in the East will remain entrenched while broad cyclonic flow will persist in the West before potentially breaking down by the weekend. This will drive a belt of weak to moderate mid-level southwesterlies across the central/northern Plains. Repeated lee trough development along with the surface high in the East will maintain rich moisture across parts of the Plains and especially the Midwest/Southeast. With large-scale features generally being weak, convective development will largely be reliant on terrain features, subtle shortwave troughs, or surface boundaries. With this pattern, at least low severe potential will exist within the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest into next weekend. Predictability will remain low, however, as large-scale features will be weaker and the influence of prior convection will increase with each successive day.
..Wendt.. 06/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, July 4
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, June 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, July 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, July 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, July 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, July 4 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270857 SPC AC 270857
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
The upper-level pattern from the middle of the new week onward will be relatively stagnant. The upper ridge in the East will remain entrenched while broad cyclonic flow will persist in the West before potentially breaking down by the weekend. This will drive a belt of weak to moderate mid-level southwesterlies across the central/northern Plains. Repeated lee trough development along with the surface high in the East will maintain rich moisture across parts of the Plains and especially the Midwest/Southeast. With large-scale features generally being weak, convective development will largely be reliant on terrain features, subtle shortwave troughs, or surface boundaries. With this pattern, at least low severe potential will exist within the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest into next weekend. Predictability will remain low, however, as large-scale features will be weaker and the influence of prior convection will increase with each successive day.
..Wendt.. 06/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, June 27
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 30%
- WIND: 30%
- Sunday, June 28
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Monday, June 29
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Tuesday, June 30
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, July 1
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, July 2
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, July 3
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, July 4
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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