Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, November 30
Outlook Summary
A few thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast, southern Florida, and central Utah. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 301231
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
Valid 301300Z - 011200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
A few thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast, southern Florida, and central Utah. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
Synopsis
A pair of shortwave troughs, one currently moving through the Upper Great Lakes region and the other moving into the Upper Midwest, will pivot eastward/northeastward today, with the second shortwave ending the period extended from eastern Quebec through New England. Farther west, another shortwave trough will drop southeastward through the Great Basin. Evolution of these waves will promote continued upper troughing across the western and central CONUS while the eastern CONUS trends more zonal.
At the surface, a low associated with the Upper Great Lakes shortwave is currently centered over Lower MI. An extensive cold front extends southward from this low into northern KY before shifting more southwestward and continuing to another surface low just off the South TX Coast. The primary surface low is forecast to progress northeastward across southeastern Ontario and eastern Quebec while occluding throughout the day. As it does, northern and central portions of the cold front will make steady eastward/southeastward progress throughout the day, likely extending from southern New England through the Carolina Piedmont by 00Z. Southern portion of the front will also move eastward, but more slowly, as a weak frontal low moves eastward along the immediate central Gulf Coast.
Dry and stable conditions associated with a cold continental airmass will preclude thunderstorms across the majority of the CONUS. A few isolated thunderstorms are possible across the immediate western/central Gulf Coast, where moderate low-level moisture remains in place ahead of the cold front and/or surface low. A few isolated thunderstorms are also possible across the southern/eastern FL Peninsula amid moderate low-level moisture and weakly convergent low-level easterly flow. Lastly, a few flashes could occur within any deeper convection over central UT as the Great Basin shortwave trough progresses across the region.
..Mosier/Dean.. 11/30/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Monday, December 1
Outlook Summary
Scattered thunderstorms will develop along the Gulf Coast tomorrow (Monday) into early Tuesday morning. Severe thunderstorms are not currently expected.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 300651
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Scattered thunderstorms will develop along the Gulf Coast tomorrow (Monday) into early Tuesday morning. Severe thunderstorms are not currently expected.
Synopsis
A mid-level trough will intensify while traversing the central CONUS tomorrow (Monday), resulting in surface low development along the Gulf Coast late in the period. As this occurs, a broad warm-air advection regime will become established across the Southeast, resulting in mainly elevated buoyancy (e.g. a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE) ushering inland. A broad shield of rain with embedded thunderstorms should become established across the Sabine River Valley into MS by 00Z, progressing eastward toward the eastern Gulf Coast by 12Z Tuesday morning. Most guidance indicates the warm front and associated surface-based buoyancy remaining just offshore, along with the anticipated surface low. However, some guidance (e.g. the 00Z NAM) hints at some surface based buoyancy reaching the shoreline in the 00-12Z period. Should this occur, a sparse severe threat cannot be ruled out. However, given that the guidance consensus strays from this scenario, severe probabilities have not been introduced at this time.
..Squitieri.. 11/30/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Tuesday, December 2
Outlook Summary
Scattered thunderstorms are expected through Tuesday across the Southeast to the Atlantic Coastline. The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears very low.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 300828
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Scattered thunderstorms are expected through Tuesday across the Southeast to the Atlantic Coastline. The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears very low.
Synopsis
A mid-level trough will rapidly traverse the eastern U.S. as another upper trough develops across the Interior West on Day 3/ Tuesday. A surface low, positioned across the southeast U.S., is poised to quickly deepen while ejecting into the Atlantic through the Day 3 period. Strong warm-air advection along the eastern Seaboard will promote a continuous flux of moisture and associated buoyancy ahead of the upper trough. A broad rain shield with embedded thunderstorms will be ongoing across the Southeast on Tuesday morning, and this band will progress eastward to the Atlantic Coast through the day.
Some guidance hints at a brief overlap of surface based instability and strong vertical wind shear from a departing low-level jet across south-central/southeastern GA and immediate surrounding areas. If such a high shear/low CAPE corridor can develop, and a stronger thunderstorm tracks through this corridor, large, curved hodographs may support strong low-level rotation. Nonetheless, confidence in this scenario is too low for the delineation of severe probabilities at this time.
..Squitieri.. 11/30/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Wednesday, December 3
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, December 3 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, December 4 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, December 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, December 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, December 7 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300932 SPC AC 300932
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
A series of mid-level troughs will progress across the central and eastern CONUS this week, which will usher in surface high pressure and associated cold, stable air for much of the northern, central and eastern CONUS to the end of this week. By around Days 6-8 (Friday-Sunday), the passage of a mid-level trough across the central Plains into the TN Valley may encourage surface low development along the Gulf Coast. Here, enough moisture return is anticipated for a chance of scattered thunderstorms. Medium-range guidance hints at the possibility of a high shear/low CAPE parameter space shaping up along the Gulf Coast during this time frame. However, details on the exact placement of features, such as the surface low or warm front, differ too much among medium-range guidance members for the introduction of severe probabilities for now.
..Squitieri.. 11/30/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, December 4
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, December 3 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, December 4 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, December 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, December 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, December 7 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300932 SPC AC 300932
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
A series of mid-level troughs will progress across the central and eastern CONUS this week, which will usher in surface high pressure and associated cold, stable air for much of the northern, central and eastern CONUS to the end of this week. By around Days 6-8 (Friday-Sunday), the passage of a mid-level trough across the central Plains into the TN Valley may encourage surface low development along the Gulf Coast. Here, enough moisture return is anticipated for a chance of scattered thunderstorms. Medium-range guidance hints at the possibility of a high shear/low CAPE parameter space shaping up along the Gulf Coast during this time frame. However, details on the exact placement of features, such as the surface low or warm front, differ too much among medium-range guidance members for the introduction of severe probabilities for now.
..Squitieri.. 11/30/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, December 5
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, December 3 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, December 4 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, December 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, December 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, December 7 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300932 SPC AC 300932
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
A series of mid-level troughs will progress across the central and eastern CONUS this week, which will usher in surface high pressure and associated cold, stable air for much of the northern, central and eastern CONUS to the end of this week. By around Days 6-8 (Friday-Sunday), the passage of a mid-level trough across the central Plains into the TN Valley may encourage surface low development along the Gulf Coast. Here, enough moisture return is anticipated for a chance of scattered thunderstorms. Medium-range guidance hints at the possibility of a high shear/low CAPE parameter space shaping up along the Gulf Coast during this time frame. However, details on the exact placement of features, such as the surface low or warm front, differ too much among medium-range guidance members for the introduction of severe probabilities for now.
..Squitieri.. 11/30/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, December 6
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, December 3 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, December 4 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, December 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, December 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, December 7 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300932 SPC AC 300932
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
A series of mid-level troughs will progress across the central and eastern CONUS this week, which will usher in surface high pressure and associated cold, stable air for much of the northern, central and eastern CONUS to the end of this week. By around Days 6-8 (Friday-Sunday), the passage of a mid-level trough across the central Plains into the TN Valley may encourage surface low development along the Gulf Coast. Here, enough moisture return is anticipated for a chance of scattered thunderstorms. Medium-range guidance hints at the possibility of a high shear/low CAPE parameter space shaping up along the Gulf Coast during this time frame. However, details on the exact placement of features, such as the surface low or warm front, differ too much among medium-range guidance members for the introduction of severe probabilities for now.
..Squitieri.. 11/30/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, December 7
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, December 3 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, December 4 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, December 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, December 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, December 7 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300932 SPC AC 300932
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
A series of mid-level troughs will progress across the central and eastern CONUS this week, which will usher in surface high pressure and associated cold, stable air for much of the northern, central and eastern CONUS to the end of this week. By around Days 6-8 (Friday-Sunday), the passage of a mid-level trough across the central Plains into the TN Valley may encourage surface low development along the Gulf Coast. Here, enough moisture return is anticipated for a chance of scattered thunderstorms. Medium-range guidance hints at the possibility of a high shear/low CAPE parameter space shaping up along the Gulf Coast during this time frame. However, details on the exact placement of features, such as the surface low or warm front, differ too much among medium-range guidance members for the introduction of severe probabilities for now.
..Squitieri.. 11/30/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, November 30
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Monday, December 1
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, December 2
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Wednesday, December 3
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, December 4
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, December 5
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, December 6
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, December 7
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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