Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, October 23
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms with hail, damaging gusts and a tornado or two are possible across portions of New Mexico and southern Colorado today into tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 230601
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms with hail, damaging gusts and a tornado or two are possible across portions of New Mexico and southern Colorado today into tonight.
An elongated western US trough will drift eastward today as the primary vort max is forecast to lift northeastward across the Great Basin into the northern Rockies through tonight. A secondary shortwave perturbation will round the base of the trough and approach coastal southern CA. Despite the fragmented nature of the upper trough, mid-level meridional flow will remain fairly strong from portions of northern Mexico to the Canadian border. Ascent associated with both perturbations and the strong flow crossing the higher terrain will aid in developing a lee cyclone across eastern MT. A trailing lee trough will connect to a second, much weaker, cyclone over southern NM and northern Senora. This will support modest northward return of unseasonably robust moisture, and subsequent destabilization across NM and the southern High Plains favorable for strong to severe storms.
New Mexico and southern Colorado
Remnant showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing early this morning across the higher terrain of northern NM and southern CO. The impact this convection and cloud debris will have on later convective development is somewhat uncertain. Regardless, mid-level ascent, persistent upslope flow and continued advection of 50-60 F surface dewpoints should result in adequate destabilization (MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg) by early afternoon across southern CO and northern NM. Subsequent development and intensification of multiple rounds of thunderstorms are likely, with organization into supercells and clusters expected, owing to elongated and fairly straight hodographs. Hail will be the primary risk, with isolated strong gusts possible as well. However, some veering in the low-levels, aided by terrain-induced backing of the flow and moist low-levels could support a low-probability tornado risk with the strongest supercells.
Farther south more robust diurnal heating is expected to develop where clearing should be more prominent. Afternoon MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg is likely to exist amidst the strong wind fields. While low-level flow is expected to remain more veered with the weaker surface pressure response, straight hodographs and effective shear greater than 40 kt will still favor splitting supercells. Large hail (some 2+ inch) is possible. The deeper mixing, especially with eastward extent in southern NM and far west TX, may also support some damaging/severe gust potential if storms remain higher based.
High Plains
A more isolated severe risk could develop within the foothills and adjacent high Plains of southeastern CO where modest buoyancy, increasingly strong flow aloft, and steeper low-level lapse rates will exist. Convection emanating from the higher terrain could persist into the drier and more deeply mixed air mass beginning mid to late afternoon, enhancing downdrafts and damaging gust potential. The degree of organization/intensity of these storms is uncertain, but 5% wind probabilities have been added.
..Lyons/Thornton.. 10/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Saturday, October 24
Outlook Summary
Severe wind/hail and a tornado are possible across portions of central New Mexico into Far West Texas on Saturday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 230533
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WESTERN TEXAS
### SUMMARY
Severe wind/hail and a tornado are possible across portions of central New Mexico into Far West Texas on Saturday.
NM into southwest TX vicinity
Strong upper ridging across the MS Valley will prevent much eastward-advancement of the upper cyclone over AZ. As a result, a belt of enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow will persist from eastern AZ into NM. At the surface, lower pressure will be oriented across southern AZ and southwest NM while surface high pressure builds across the northern/central Plains in the wake of a surface cold front. As a result of the increased surface pressure gradient across the southern Rockies, southeasterly low-level winds will transport/maintain modest boundary layer moisture across central/eastern NM and western TX. Modest destabilization, and large scale ascent overspreading the region ahead of the upper cyclone, will support thunderstorm development by early to mid-afternoon.
Vertically veering wind profiles, increasing in speed with height, will result in supercell wind profiles and elongated hodographs. Midlevel lapse rates will remain modest (to around 7 C/km), with cool 500 mb temperatures around -10 to -13 C noted in regional forecast soundings. This will result in mainly a large hail risk. However, given stronger midlevel flow and somewhat fast storm motion (40 kt or so), some risk for strong gusts also will be possible where stronger heating occurs. While boundary layer moisture will remain modest (generally 50s F dewpoints max), some risk for a tornado is possible given favorable low-level shear. This risk will likely be focused further south across south-central NM into Far West TX where instability and surface heating may be maximized.
..Leitman.. 10/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Sunday, October 25
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220755 SPC AC 220755
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper-air pattern is expected through much of next week, with multiple mid-level troughs expected to traverse the central and northern CONUS through the extended period. Surface troughing will accompany several of these passing upper waves, encouraging the development of at least scattered showers and thunderstorms. However, deterministic medium-range guidance shows minimal convective instability associated with these surface troughs, which should limit the potential for severe thunderstorms into next week.
..Squitieri.. 10/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, October 26
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220755 SPC AC 220755
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper-air pattern is expected through much of next week, with multiple mid-level troughs expected to traverse the central and northern CONUS through the extended period. Surface troughing will accompany several of these passing upper waves, encouraging the development of at least scattered showers and thunderstorms. However, deterministic medium-range guidance shows minimal convective instability associated with these surface troughs, which should limit the potential for severe thunderstorms into next week.
..Squitieri.. 10/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, October 27
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220755 SPC AC 220755
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper-air pattern is expected through much of next week, with multiple mid-level troughs expected to traverse the central and northern CONUS through the extended period. Surface troughing will accompany several of these passing upper waves, encouraging the development of at least scattered showers and thunderstorms. However, deterministic medium-range guidance shows minimal convective instability associated with these surface troughs, which should limit the potential for severe thunderstorms into next week.
..Squitieri.. 10/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, October 28
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220755 SPC AC 220755
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper-air pattern is expected through much of next week, with multiple mid-level troughs expected to traverse the central and northern CONUS through the extended period. Surface troughing will accompany several of these passing upper waves, encouraging the development of at least scattered showers and thunderstorms. However, deterministic medium-range guidance shows minimal convective instability associated with these surface troughs, which should limit the potential for severe thunderstorms into next week.
..Squitieri.. 10/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, October 29
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220755 SPC AC 220755
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper-air pattern is expected through much of next week, with multiple mid-level troughs expected to traverse the central and northern CONUS through the extended period. Surface troughing will accompany several of these passing upper waves, encouraging the development of at least scattered showers and thunderstorms. However, deterministic medium-range guidance shows minimal convective instability associated with these surface troughs, which should limit the potential for severe thunderstorms into next week.
..Squitieri.. 10/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, October 23
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 5%
- Saturday, October 24
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 5%
- Sunday, October 25
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, October 26
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, October 27
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, October 28
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, October 29
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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