Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, November 14
Outlook Summary
Isolated thunderstorms may impact parts of southern California late tonight into early Saturday morning, but organized severe thunderstorms are not expected.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 141610
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025
Valid 141630Z - 151200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated thunderstorms may impact parts of southern California late tonight into early Saturday morning, but organized severe thunderstorms are not expected.
Discussion
Within prevalent split upper flow over western North America, a southern-stream closed low off the coast of California will slowly approach with the parent trough taking on a more neutral/slight negative tilt over time. Showers/some thunderstorms will increase toward the coast late tonight through early Saturday with the approach of a frontal band. Instability is forecast to remain very weak, with poor lapse rates aloft. Nevertheless, low-topped convection may occasionally reach levels sufficient for charge separation and lightning flashes as it approaches the coast and moves onshore across parts of southern California late tonight and early Saturday. Low-level winds are expected to remain modest, but south-southwesterly flow will strengthen with height through mid/upper levels. While strong/gusty winds may occur in the higher terrain, the overall severe threat should be limited by minimal instability and weak low-level shear.
..Guyer/Smith.. 11/14/2025
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Saturday, November 15
Outlook Summary
Showers and a few thunderstorms may be accompanied by strong wind gusts across parts of the upper Ohio Valley late Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 141710
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OHIO…WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
### SUMMARY
Showers and a few thunderstorms may be accompanied by strong wind gusts across parts of the upper Ohio Valley late Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening.
Discussion
Although smaller-scale developments remain uncertain, latest model output offers little change to prior runs concerning the large-scale pattern evolution Saturday through Saturday night. It still appears that a more progressive flow emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific, including a prominent cyclone on its leading edge, will begin to impinge on a blocked regime which has evolved across parts of eastern North America into the Atlantic. The cyclone is likely to undergo considerable deformation and weaken, but an emerging mid-level perturbation is forecast to dig across the upper through lower Great Lakes region, accompanied by secondary surface cyclogenesis.
Upstream, the westerlies may undergo notable amplification, including building ridging across and east of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies, as well as across parts of the central into eastern northern mid-latitude Pacific. In between the ridge axes, models indicate that splitting troughing will progress across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific. With the approach of the digging southern portion of this trough, an initially cut-off low offshore of the southern California/northern Baja coast is forecast to accelerate into the Southwest late Saturday through Saturday night.
Upper Ohio Valley
Within the warm sector of the developing surface low, modest low-level moisture return is forecast. Both NAM and Rapid Refresh forecast soundings indicate that this will contribute to the development of thermodynamic profiles characterized by at least weak conditional and convective instability in the lowest 5-6 km AGL, becoming focused ahead of a southward advancing cold front, across parts of the mid into upper Ohio Valley/Allegheny Plateau vicinity by late Saturday afternoon.
Where the weak boundary-layer destabilization occurs, it appears that a warm layer aloft may tend to suppress thunderstorm development, and mid/upper forcing for ascent to overcome the inhibition remains unclear due to model spread. However, there does appear a general consensus for a pocket of modest mid-level cooling across eastern Ohio into the western slopes of the Allegheny Mountains late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. This may be accompanied by the development of a relatively compact band of stronger showers and thunderstorms, in the presence of strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields (including 40-50 kt mean west-northwesterly flow). Perhaps aided by latent cooling in downdrafts associated with melting small hail, this activity may contribute to the downward transfer of stronger winds to the surface, before weakening will crossing the Allegheny Mountains Saturday evening.
Southwest
It still appears that a pocket of colder mid-level air, characterized by 500 mb temperatures as cold as near or just below -20 C, will finally spread inland late Saturday through Saturday night. These temperatures are generally on the warmer side compared to cool season environments typically conducive to low-topped convective capable of producing lightning across and inland of Pacific coastal areas. However, it is possible that low-level moisture return emanating from the lower latitude eastern Pacific and Gulf of California may compensate and contribute to thermodynamic profiles at least minimally sufficient for thunderstorms. Even if this occurs, particularly near southern California coastal areas, generally saturated profiles with very weak CAPE, and low-level hodographs becoming modest to weak, seem likely to minimize the risk for severe weather.
Otherwise, it might not be out of the question that preceding elevated moisture return contributes to layers of weak conditional instability minimally supportive of convection capable of producing lightning across parts of the Mojave Desert/lower Colorado Valley vicinity.
..Kerr.. 11/14/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Sunday, November 16
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorm potential is not expected on Sunday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 140644
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorm potential is not expected on Sunday.
Synopsis
An upper low and attendant shortwave trough will pivot northeast across the Southwest and Great Basin toward the central/southern Rockies on Sunday. Moderate to strong deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of this feature, coupled with moistening midlevels and cooling aloft, should be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms across parts of the Southwest into the Great Basin vicinity through the afternoon/early evening. Weak instability and a cool boundary layer will preclude severe thunderstorm potential.
Southerly low-level flow will increase across the southern/central Plains in response to height falls over the Rockies/adjacent High Plains late in the period. Some guidance suggests an elevated thunderstorm or two may develop somewhere from the ArkLaTex into KS within this warm advection regime/increasing low-level jet, though confidence in 10 percent coverage before 12z Monday is low.
..Leitman.. 11/14/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Monday, November 17
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, November 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, November 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, November 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, November 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, November 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140807 SPC AC 140807
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
A midlevel shortwave trough will dampen as it shifts east from the central Plains toward the Mid-South in the Day 4-5/Mon-Tue time period. Some enhanced westerly flow will overspread the region nonetheless, and a weak surface low is forecast to track from KS/OK toward the central or southern Appalachians through Tuesday night. Ahead of the surface low and an attending cold front, modest Gulf moisture return is forecast across the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley. Some strong to isolated severe thunderstorms could develop across the Ozarks to the Mid-South vicinity Monday and Tuesday, through confidence in 15 percent coverage is low given the weakening midlevel trough and lack of a deepening surface cyclone.
During the Day 6-8 period, forecast model spread increases considerably. However, a general trend indicating a deepening trough across the West ejecting across the Plains toward the central U.S. Thursday and Friday is apparent. Depending on the evolution of this feature and any developing surface cyclone and attendant Gulf return flow across the south-central U.S., an increase in severe thunderstorm potential could develop. Large spread and poor run-to-run consistency among various guidance precludes probabilities at this time.
..Leitman.. 11/14/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, November 18
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, November 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, November 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, November 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, November 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, November 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140807 SPC AC 140807
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
A midlevel shortwave trough will dampen as it shifts east from the central Plains toward the Mid-South in the Day 4-5/Mon-Tue time period. Some enhanced westerly flow will overspread the region nonetheless, and a weak surface low is forecast to track from KS/OK toward the central or southern Appalachians through Tuesday night. Ahead of the surface low and an attending cold front, modest Gulf moisture return is forecast across the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley. Some strong to isolated severe thunderstorms could develop across the Ozarks to the Mid-South vicinity Monday and Tuesday, through confidence in 15 percent coverage is low given the weakening midlevel trough and lack of a deepening surface cyclone.
During the Day 6-8 period, forecast model spread increases considerably. However, a general trend indicating a deepening trough across the West ejecting across the Plains toward the central U.S. Thursday and Friday is apparent. Depending on the evolution of this feature and any developing surface cyclone and attendant Gulf return flow across the south-central U.S., an increase in severe thunderstorm potential could develop. Large spread and poor run-to-run consistency among various guidance precludes probabilities at this time.
..Leitman.. 11/14/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, November 19
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, November 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, November 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, November 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, November 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, November 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140807 SPC AC 140807
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
A midlevel shortwave trough will dampen as it shifts east from the central Plains toward the Mid-South in the Day 4-5/Mon-Tue time period. Some enhanced westerly flow will overspread the region nonetheless, and a weak surface low is forecast to track from KS/OK toward the central or southern Appalachians through Tuesday night. Ahead of the surface low and an attending cold front, modest Gulf moisture return is forecast across the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley. Some strong to isolated severe thunderstorms could develop across the Ozarks to the Mid-South vicinity Monday and Tuesday, through confidence in 15 percent coverage is low given the weakening midlevel trough and lack of a deepening surface cyclone.
During the Day 6-8 period, forecast model spread increases considerably. However, a general trend indicating a deepening trough across the West ejecting across the Plains toward the central U.S. Thursday and Friday is apparent. Depending on the evolution of this feature and any developing surface cyclone and attendant Gulf return flow across the south-central U.S., an increase in severe thunderstorm potential could develop. Large spread and poor run-to-run consistency among various guidance precludes probabilities at this time.
..Leitman.. 11/14/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, November 20
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, November 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, November 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, November 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, November 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, November 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140807 SPC AC 140807
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
A midlevel shortwave trough will dampen as it shifts east from the central Plains toward the Mid-South in the Day 4-5/Mon-Tue time period. Some enhanced westerly flow will overspread the region nonetheless, and a weak surface low is forecast to track from KS/OK toward the central or southern Appalachians through Tuesday night. Ahead of the surface low and an attending cold front, modest Gulf moisture return is forecast across the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley. Some strong to isolated severe thunderstorms could develop across the Ozarks to the Mid-South vicinity Monday and Tuesday, through confidence in 15 percent coverage is low given the weakening midlevel trough and lack of a deepening surface cyclone.
During the Day 6-8 period, forecast model spread increases considerably. However, a general trend indicating a deepening trough across the West ejecting across the Plains toward the central U.S. Thursday and Friday is apparent. Depending on the evolution of this feature and any developing surface cyclone and attendant Gulf return flow across the south-central U.S., an increase in severe thunderstorm potential could develop. Large spread and poor run-to-run consistency among various guidance precludes probabilities at this time.
..Leitman.. 11/14/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, November 21
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, November 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, November 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, November 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, November 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, November 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140807 SPC AC 140807
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
A midlevel shortwave trough will dampen as it shifts east from the central Plains toward the Mid-South in the Day 4-5/Mon-Tue time period. Some enhanced westerly flow will overspread the region nonetheless, and a weak surface low is forecast to track from KS/OK toward the central or southern Appalachians through Tuesday night. Ahead of the surface low and an attending cold front, modest Gulf moisture return is forecast across the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley. Some strong to isolated severe thunderstorms could develop across the Ozarks to the Mid-South vicinity Monday and Tuesday, through confidence in 15 percent coverage is low given the weakening midlevel trough and lack of a deepening surface cyclone.
During the Day 6-8 period, forecast model spread increases considerably. However, a general trend indicating a deepening trough across the West ejecting across the Plains toward the central U.S. Thursday and Friday is apparent. Depending on the evolution of this feature and any developing surface cyclone and attendant Gulf return flow across the south-central U.S., an increase in severe thunderstorm potential could develop. Large spread and poor run-to-run consistency among various guidance precludes probabilities at this time.
..Leitman.. 11/14/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, November 14
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Saturday, November 15
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Sunday, November 16
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Monday, November 17
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, November 18
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, November 19
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, November 20
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, November 21
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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