Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Wednesday, June 24

Outlook Summary

Widely scattered but intense severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central High Plains, with a threat for large to very large hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. Other severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Midwest and Great Basin.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 241649

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Valid 241630Z - 251200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS

### THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN…HIGH PLAINS AND MIDWEST

### SUMMARY

Widely scattered but intense severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central High Plains, with a threat for large to very large hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. Other severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Midwest and Great Basin.

Central/Southern High Plains

Post-frontal low-level moisture will remain over the central High Plains today via low-level upslope flow, which should be most focused/strongest across southeast Wyoming/northeast Colorado, and to a lesser extent, the Raton Mesa vicinity. As daytime heating occurs and low-level clouds present this morning gradually erode, 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE should develop by mid to late afternoon in a narrow corridor across northeast Colorado into southeast Wyoming. This instability will also be aided by the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates.

Thunderstorms should develop this afternoon across much the region as strong mid-level west-northwesterly flow associated with a shortwave trough over the northern Plains overspreads the central Rockies/High Plains. Accordingly, the highest convective coverage is anticipated from east-central/southeast Wyoming into northeast/east-central CO, where buoyancy should be maximized. Deep-layer shear will be rather strong, with values up to 50-60 kt. These conditions will support the potential for intense supercells capable of large to very large hail (isolated 2-4 inches in diameter possible). Notable low-level curvature of the hodograph could support a couple of tornadoes in this region as well. Eventual upscale growth into a southeastward-moving MCS capable of producing severe winds is probable into eastern Colorado/western Kansas this evening, with some 75+ mph gusts possible.

Lower thunderstorm coverage is anticipated farther south into the southern High Plains, with warmer temperatures and higher cloud bases suggesting a predominantly outflow-dominant mode. Strong to severe gusts will be the primary risk, although isolated hail may also occur.

Midwest including portions of Wisconsin/northern Illinois

A belt of 40-50 kt westerly mid-level flow will overspread Wisconsin and northern Illinois today as a weak shortwave trough moves across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes through the period. Seasonably cool temperatures aloft will aid up to around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE through peak afternoon heating along/ahead of a weak cold front. Current expectations are for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop this afternoon with moderate to locally strong deep-layer shear providing support for updraft organization. A mix of multicells and supercells should pose a threat for severe hail and damaging winds, and possibly some tornado risk, as they spread east-southeastward through the afternoon and evening before eventually weakening.

Great Basin/Four Corners

Current surface observations indicate rather dry conditions across the Great Basin/Four Corners regions this morning. Still, greater low/mid-level moisture is forecast to advect northeastward through the day as a weak mid-level shortwave trough advances east-northeastward from the lower Colorado River Valley across the Great Basin. The boundary layer is expected to become very well mixed with strong daytime heating that will occur this afternoon, with weak instability present. Modestly enhanced mid-level flow will aid in northeastward thunderstorm motions, and some potential exists for strong/gusty outflow winds across a large area this afternoon and early evening.

Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley

Thunderstorms should increase/re-intensify regionally this afternoon, aided by multiple MCVs interacting with a convectively augmented front that extends northwest-southeastward regionally. Deep-layer flow and related shear should remain rather modest. Isolated hail and damaging winds may occur with the strongest cores that form, but the potential for more organized clusters is uncertain. Influenced by prior/modifying outflow, at least a conditional-type risk for supercell redevelopment later today is most probable across portions of southern/eastern Oklahoma toward the ArkLaTex.

Florida

After mostly clear skies this morning, cumulus field continues to increase within a very moist air mass to the south of a front across the northern Florida Peninsula, with low to mid 70s F warm-sector surface dewpoints. While low/mid-level winds will remain weak today, cool mid-level temperatures and ample daytime heating will support the development of moderate to locally strong instability this afternoon. Scattered to numerous pulse-type thunderstorms are expected to develop across the interior Florida Peninsula and Atlantic Coast sea breeze, with occasional damaging winds possible given steepened low-level lapse rates.

..Guyer/Moore.. 06/24/2026

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Outlook for Thursday, June 25

Outlook Summary

Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across portions of the High Plains with a threat for large hail and severe wind. Storms are also expected across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma into the Ozarks where large hail, severe winds, and a few tornadoes are all possible.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 241735

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO THE OZARKS

### SUMMARY

Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across portions of the High Plains with a threat for large hail and severe wind. Storms are also expected across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma into the Ozarks where large hail, severe winds, and a few tornadoes are all possible.

Synopsis

Zonal flow will bring broad westerly flow aloft across much of the central Rockies into the central/southern Plains D2/Thursday. Within the broad upper-level flow, several perturbations will rotate across the central/southern Plains. Further east, a more potent shortwave trough with a band of enhanced westerly flow will move across the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front will extend from Wisconsin south and west into the central Plains shifting south and eastward into the Ohio Valley through the afternoon. A surface low will deepen across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles through the evening.

High Plains

A shortwave trough moving out of Montana will bring forcing for ascent and thunderstorm development by the afternoon across portions of the High Plains. Guidance suggests that ahead of this feature, widespread cloud cover will be in place across much of the central/northern Rockies Thursday morning/early afternoon. This may inhibit destabilization, especially with northern extent into portions of eastern Montana/northern Colorado. Nonetheless, it appears at least marginal instability will be achieved by late afternoon through filtered daytime heating along and east of the Rockies. This in combination with deep layer shear around 30-40 kts will support organized clusters capable of damaging wind. Somewhat better heating is expected across southeastern Colorado, where less cloud cover is expected. Across this region, supercells will be possible with potential for large hail and damaging wind.

Northern Oklahoma/southern Kansas into the Ozarks

A quick moving shortwave trough will likely support potential for an MCS/cluster of thunderstorms to be ongoing Thursday morning into portions of northern Oklahoma/southern Kansas. The exact location of this and resulting remnant outflow boundary placement will have a large impact on afternoon severe potential. Model trends in the 12z guidance have been to push this boundary further south into portions of northern Oklahoma, with the best instability also being shunted further south. Afternoon thunderstorm development should be centered along the intersection of the remnant outflow/cold front from southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma. Moderate instability and deep layer shear around 30-45 kts will support supercells, with storm motions likely to be along-boundary. There remains strong signal that a 40-50 kt southwesterly low-level jet will increase into the evening across Oklahoma into southern Kansas. This in combination with favorable along boundary storm motions will support potential for tornadoes, a few of which could be strong. The main uncertainty remains in the exact placement of the boundary relative to the more favorable corridor of instability/low-level jet axis. The 5% tornado area was shifted southward with this update to account for recent trends. It is possible that if more confidence in the placement of these features occurs, higher probabilities may be needed. For now, confidence remains moderate in supercells developing with potential for large to very large hail and damaging wind.

Portions of the Ohio Valley into southern New York

Development is expected along the cold front from southern New York into the Ohio Valley Thursday afternoon as a jet streak moves across the region with increasing forcing for ascent. Moderate instability and strong deep layer shear ahead of this will support organized storms and perhaps a few transient supercells with potential for damaging wind and large hail. The Marginal Risk was expanded along the front into portions of Indiana/southern Ohio/northern Kentucky to account for this potential extending along the entirety of the cold front.

Northern Utah

Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected across portions of Utah Thursday afternoon. Steep low to mid-level lapse rates are expected with very dry near-surface conditions. Modest instability will overlap with strong deep layer shear across northern Utah by the afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate large inverted-v profiles and potential for severe winds. A Marginal Risk was added to the area to account for this potential.

..Thornton.. 06/24/2026

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Outlook for Friday, June 26

Outlook Summary

Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible across the High Plains and across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma into southern Missouri and northern Arkansas on Friday.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 240721

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE OZARKS.

### SUMMARY

Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible across the High Plains and across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma into southern Missouri and northern Arkansas on Friday.

Synopsis

A strong mid-level shortwave trough will move from the eastern Pacific into the Northwest CONUS on Friday with the trough continuing to deepen through the period. An elongated mid-level jet streak will stretch from the California coast to the northern Plains by 12Z Saturday. Surface low pressure will exist across the Inter-Mountain West as this trough amplifies and will eventually consolidate as a lee cyclone across the northern Plains by the end of the period.

High Plains

Moderate to strong instability is forecast across the High Plains on Friday as a dryline develops along the lee trough. Ridging should limit overall convective coverage, but with 30 to 35 knots of mid-level flow, isolated supercells are possible with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts.

Southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma into the Ozarks

Strong instability is forecast along a frontal boundary that will exist from the OK/KS border into southern Missouri where dewpoints will be in the low to mid 70s. Upper-level forcing will be weak, with neutral to perhaps slightly rising heights. Therefore, the strong instability and forecast soundings showing an uncapped airmass near a frontal zone will support the potential for strong to severe storms Friday afternoon/evening. In addition, the low-level jet is forecast to strengthen Friday evening which may provide additional support for storm development, even if it doesn't occur during daytime heating.

..Bentley.. 06/24/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Saturday, June 27

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Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240842 SPC AC 240842

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Valid 271200Z - 021200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Saturday - Northern Plains

A strong trough will advance into the Northwest CONUS on Saturday with a strong mid-level jet extending from the Great Basin to the northern Plains. A lee cyclone will develop across eastern Wyoming into western South Dakota. Southerly flow will strengthen and advect low to mid 60s dewpoints northward. This will lead to strong instability by the late afternoon across the western Dakotas. There is still some uncertainty with the evolution of the upper-level trough which will have some impact in the timing and location of the severe weather threat on Saturday. At this time, have confined the 15% area to where the greatest severe weather threat appears likely Saturday afternoon/evening, but this area may need to be refined in future outlooks.

Day 5 and Beyond

Severe weather will be possible across portions of the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest Sunday and into next week. However, predictability remains too low to highlight areas in this timeframe. The presence of strong to very strong instability across a large region with multiple shortwave troughs emerging from the primary trough centered over the West will surely support severe weather potential most days. However, probabilities for specific areas cannot be added until the upper-level pattern becomes more clear.

..Bentley.. 06/24/2026

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Outlook for Sunday, June 28

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Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240842 SPC AC 240842

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Valid 271200Z - 021200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Saturday - Northern Plains

A strong trough will advance into the Northwest CONUS on Saturday with a strong mid-level jet extending from the Great Basin to the northern Plains. A lee cyclone will develop across eastern Wyoming into western South Dakota. Southerly flow will strengthen and advect low to mid 60s dewpoints northward. This will lead to strong instability by the late afternoon across the western Dakotas. There is still some uncertainty with the evolution of the upper-level trough which will have some impact in the timing and location of the severe weather threat on Saturday. At this time, have confined the 15% area to where the greatest severe weather threat appears likely Saturday afternoon/evening, but this area may need to be refined in future outlooks.

Day 5 and Beyond

Severe weather will be possible across portions of the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest Sunday and into next week. However, predictability remains too low to highlight areas in this timeframe. The presence of strong to very strong instability across a large region with multiple shortwave troughs emerging from the primary trough centered over the West will surely support severe weather potential most days. However, probabilities for specific areas cannot be added until the upper-level pattern becomes more clear.

..Bentley.. 06/24/2026

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Outlook for Monday, June 29

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Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240842 SPC AC 240842

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Valid 271200Z - 021200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Saturday - Northern Plains

A strong trough will advance into the Northwest CONUS on Saturday with a strong mid-level jet extending from the Great Basin to the northern Plains. A lee cyclone will develop across eastern Wyoming into western South Dakota. Southerly flow will strengthen and advect low to mid 60s dewpoints northward. This will lead to strong instability by the late afternoon across the western Dakotas. There is still some uncertainty with the evolution of the upper-level trough which will have some impact in the timing and location of the severe weather threat on Saturday. At this time, have confined the 15% area to where the greatest severe weather threat appears likely Saturday afternoon/evening, but this area may need to be refined in future outlooks.

Day 5 and Beyond

Severe weather will be possible across portions of the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest Sunday and into next week. However, predictability remains too low to highlight areas in this timeframe. The presence of strong to very strong instability across a large region with multiple shortwave troughs emerging from the primary trough centered over the West will surely support severe weather potential most days. However, probabilities for specific areas cannot be added until the upper-level pattern becomes more clear.

..Bentley.. 06/24/2026

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Outlook for Tuesday, June 30

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240842 SPC AC 240842

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Valid 271200Z - 021200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Saturday - Northern Plains

A strong trough will advance into the Northwest CONUS on Saturday with a strong mid-level jet extending from the Great Basin to the northern Plains. A lee cyclone will develop across eastern Wyoming into western South Dakota. Southerly flow will strengthen and advect low to mid 60s dewpoints northward. This will lead to strong instability by the late afternoon across the western Dakotas. There is still some uncertainty with the evolution of the upper-level trough which will have some impact in the timing and location of the severe weather threat on Saturday. At this time, have confined the 15% area to where the greatest severe weather threat appears likely Saturday afternoon/evening, but this area may need to be refined in future outlooks.

Day 5 and Beyond

Severe weather will be possible across portions of the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest Sunday and into next week. However, predictability remains too low to highlight areas in this timeframe. The presence of strong to very strong instability across a large region with multiple shortwave troughs emerging from the primary trough centered over the West will surely support severe weather potential most days. However, probabilities for specific areas cannot be added until the upper-level pattern becomes more clear.

..Bentley.. 06/24/2026

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Outlook for Wednesday, July 1

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240842 SPC AC 240842

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Valid 271200Z - 021200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Saturday - Northern Plains

A strong trough will advance into the Northwest CONUS on Saturday with a strong mid-level jet extending from the Great Basin to the northern Plains. A lee cyclone will develop across eastern Wyoming into western South Dakota. Southerly flow will strengthen and advect low to mid 60s dewpoints northward. This will lead to strong instability by the late afternoon across the western Dakotas. There is still some uncertainty with the evolution of the upper-level trough which will have some impact in the timing and location of the severe weather threat on Saturday. At this time, have confined the 15% area to where the greatest severe weather threat appears likely Saturday afternoon/evening, but this area may need to be refined in future outlooks.

Day 5 and Beyond

Severe weather will be possible across portions of the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest Sunday and into next week. However, predictability remains too low to highlight areas in this timeframe. The presence of strong to very strong instability across a large region with multiple shortwave troughs emerging from the primary trough centered over the West will surely support severe weather potential most days. However, probabilities for specific areas cannot be added until the upper-level pattern becomes more clear.

..Bentley.. 06/24/2026

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National Risk Overview

Wednesday, June 24

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 30%

WIND: 15%

Thursday, June 25

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Friday, June 26

ANY SEVERE: 5%

Saturday, June 27

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Sunday, June 28

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Monday, June 29

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Tuesday, June 30

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Wednesday, July 1

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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