Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, July 5
Outlook Summary
Scattered wind damage remains possible with thunderstorms across the Mid-Atlantic through the remainder of the afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging gusts may still occur with thunderstorms in North Dakota and west/northwest Texas.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 30%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 051957
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026
Valid 052000Z - 061200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC…NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA…AND WESTERN INTO NORTHERN TEXAS
### SUMMARY
Scattered wind damage remains possible with thunderstorms across the Mid-Atlantic through the remainder of the afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging gusts may still occur with thunderstorms in North Dakota and west/northwest Texas.
20Z Update
The previous forecast (see below) remains generally on track. A mesovortex embedded within a multicellular complex developed a few hours ago and produced a localized swath of intense winds along the OH/PA border. A repeat of such activity cannot be ruled out across western into central PA given the presence of a broad baroclinic boundary for ongoing storms to traverse. However, confidence in the development of another mesovortex is too low for an appreciable modification of severe probabilities at this time.
..Squitieri.. 07/05/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026/
Mid Atlantic
Scattered thunderstorms are expected once again today from parts of eastern OH/WV into PA and the Mid-Atlantic region. The overall thermodynamic environment has weakened considerably compared to yesterday, with CAPE, low-level lapse rates, and heating showing parameters only marginally favorable for damaging winds. Nevertheless, parts of northern VA into eastern PA and NJ will see strong heating all day with storms moving in during the early evening. This will help to maximize low-level conditions favorable for gusty/damaging winds later today. Therefore will maintain ongoing SLGT risk area.
Gulf coast states to Carolinas
Hot and humid conditions will prevail over much of the southeast today, with dewpoints in the 70s and pockets of moderate CAPE. Scattered slow-moving thunderstorms will occur across this region with locally damaging winds possible in the strongest storms.
TX
Full sunshine is noted over TX today, with dewpoints near 70F and the potential for afternoon MLCAPE exceeding 3000 J/kg. All CAM solutions indicate thunderstorm development this afternoon along the remnant outflow from overnight convection, extending from the southern TX Panhandle into north-central TX. Initial storms may be supercellular with large hail and damaging winds possible. Storms are expected to congeal through the evening and sag southward, with a continued risk of damaging winds.
Northern ND
A cold front will move across northeast MT today, with a diffuse surface dryline along the MT/ND border. Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the late afternoon. Shear profiles will be sufficient for supercell structures capable of large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out.
MT
Scattered afternoon high-based thunderstorms are expected to develop over the mountains of southwest MT and spread east-northeastward. Inverted-v profiles and moderately strong winds aloft will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts in a few of these storms.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Monday, July 6
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and severe gusts are possible across parts of the northern Plains into the Midwest. Damaging thunderstorm wind gusts are also possible across the Mid-Atlantic and lower Mississippi Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 051730
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST…THE MID-ATLANTIC…AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and severe gusts are possible across parts of the northern Plains into the Midwest. Damaging thunderstorm wind gusts are also possible across the Mid-Atlantic and lower Mississippi Valley.
Northern Plains into the Midwest
Within the base of a midlevel trough moving eastward across SK/MB, modest midlevel height falls and a belt of 40-kt midlevel flow will overspread the northern Plains and upper Midwest. This will promote scattered thunderstorms along a southeastward-moving cold front during the afternoon into the nighttime hours. Rich boundary-layer moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will yield strong buoyancy along/ahead of the front. This, combined with around 40 kt of effective shear, will promote a few organized clusters and possibly supercell structures capable of large hail and severe wind gusts.
Mid-Atlantic
In the vicinity of a surface trough in the lee of the Blue Ridge, bands and clusters of storms will overspread a moist and strongly unstable air mass during the afternoon. Despite limited deep-layer shear and related storm organization, the environment will be conducive for damaging wind gusts with the stronger cores.
Lower Mississippi Valley
An embedded midlevel impulse in the base of a broad, positive-tilt large-scale trough will provide a focus for scattered afternoon thunderstorm development across the lower MS Valley. Generally weak deep-layer shear will limit overall thunderstorm organization/longevity, though strong surface-based buoyancy and the potential for small bands/clusters of storms will favor damaging wind gusts.
..Weinman.. 07/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Tuesday, July 7
Outlook Summary
Strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk for scattered damaging wind gusts and large hail on Tuesday across parts of the middle Missouri Valley toward the Upper Midwest.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 051929
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA
### SUMMARY
Strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk for scattered damaging wind gusts and large hail on Tuesday across parts of the middle Missouri Valley toward the Upper Midwest.
Northern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest
Along the northern periphery of an expansive upper ridge centered over the Southwest, a low-amplitude midlevel impulse will advance eastward across the northern Plains into the Midwest through the period. Related forcing for ascent will support multiple rounds of thunderstorms, generally focused along an ENE/WSW-oriented surface boundary extending from the Upper Midwest into SD and NE.
While the details regarding convective evolution are unclear and will be largely influenced by mesoscale factors, a corridor of moderate-strong surface based buoyancy and elongated hodographs (40-50 kt of effective shear) will support the potential for eastward-spreading clusters and supercell structures capable of damaging winds and large hail through the afternoon/evening. The greatest potential for an upscale-growing cluster of storms capable of producing scattered damaging gusts is expected across parts of SD into southwestern MN – potentially aided by an eastward-moving surface wave and gradually strengthening nocturnal LLJ.
Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas
Diurnal heating of a very moist air mass (2+ inch PW) may promote wet microbursts and the potential for localized wind damage with the stronger thunderstorms that evolve during the afternoon. However, weak deep-layer flow/shear and nebulous forcing for ascent cast uncertainty on the overall severe risk, and severe-wind probabilities have been withheld at this time.
..Weinman.. 07/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Wednesday, July 8
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, July 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, July 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, July 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, July 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, July 12 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050851 SPC AC 050851
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
In the wake of a short wave trough pivoting inland of the British Columbia coast by mid week, medium-range guidance continues to indicate the gradual development of large-scale ridging across the much of the Intermountain West through Great Plains and Mississippi Valley late this week through next weekend. It appears that a center of seasonably high mid-level heights will evolve and develop northeastward, west through north of the Four Corners, into northern Colorado by the end of the period. Prior to and as this occurs, this may be preceded by the transition of a generally zonal to broadly cyclonic regime across and east of the northern Great Plains through northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard, but embedded short wave developments remain rather unclear.
Regardless, it still appears that substantive potential for organized severe thunderstorm development, if any, will largely remain influenced by sub-synoptic developments yet to evolve, and of particularly low predictability at this extended time frame.
..Kerr.. 07/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, July 9
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, July 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, July 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, July 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, July 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, July 12 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050851 SPC AC 050851
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
In the wake of a short wave trough pivoting inland of the British Columbia coast by mid week, medium-range guidance continues to indicate the gradual development of large-scale ridging across the much of the Intermountain West through Great Plains and Mississippi Valley late this week through next weekend. It appears that a center of seasonably high mid-level heights will evolve and develop northeastward, west through north of the Four Corners, into northern Colorado by the end of the period. Prior to and as this occurs, this may be preceded by the transition of a generally zonal to broadly cyclonic regime across and east of the northern Great Plains through northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard, but embedded short wave developments remain rather unclear.
Regardless, it still appears that substantive potential for organized severe thunderstorm development, if any, will largely remain influenced by sub-synoptic developments yet to evolve, and of particularly low predictability at this extended time frame.
..Kerr.. 07/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, July 10
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, July 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, July 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, July 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, July 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, July 12 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050851 SPC AC 050851
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
In the wake of a short wave trough pivoting inland of the British Columbia coast by mid week, medium-range guidance continues to indicate the gradual development of large-scale ridging across the much of the Intermountain West through Great Plains and Mississippi Valley late this week through next weekend. It appears that a center of seasonably high mid-level heights will evolve and develop northeastward, west through north of the Four Corners, into northern Colorado by the end of the period. Prior to and as this occurs, this may be preceded by the transition of a generally zonal to broadly cyclonic regime across and east of the northern Great Plains through northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard, but embedded short wave developments remain rather unclear.
Regardless, it still appears that substantive potential for organized severe thunderstorm development, if any, will largely remain influenced by sub-synoptic developments yet to evolve, and of particularly low predictability at this extended time frame.
..Kerr.. 07/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, July 11
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, July 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, July 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, July 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, July 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, July 12 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050851 SPC AC 050851
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
In the wake of a short wave trough pivoting inland of the British Columbia coast by mid week, medium-range guidance continues to indicate the gradual development of large-scale ridging across the much of the Intermountain West through Great Plains and Mississippi Valley late this week through next weekend. It appears that a center of seasonably high mid-level heights will evolve and develop northeastward, west through north of the Four Corners, into northern Colorado by the end of the period. Prior to and as this occurs, this may be preceded by the transition of a generally zonal to broadly cyclonic regime across and east of the northern Great Plains through northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard, but embedded short wave developments remain rather unclear.
Regardless, it still appears that substantive potential for organized severe thunderstorm development, if any, will largely remain influenced by sub-synoptic developments yet to evolve, and of particularly low predictability at this extended time frame.
..Kerr.. 07/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, July 12
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, July 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, July 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, July 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, July 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, July 12 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050851 SPC AC 050851
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
In the wake of a short wave trough pivoting inland of the British Columbia coast by mid week, medium-range guidance continues to indicate the gradual development of large-scale ridging across the much of the Intermountain West through Great Plains and Mississippi Valley late this week through next weekend. It appears that a center of seasonably high mid-level heights will evolve and develop northeastward, west through north of the Four Corners, into northern Colorado by the end of the period. Prior to and as this occurs, this may be preceded by the transition of a generally zonal to broadly cyclonic regime across and east of the northern Great Plains through northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard, but embedded short wave developments remain rather unclear.
Regardless, it still appears that substantive potential for organized severe thunderstorm development, if any, will largely remain influenced by sub-synoptic developments yet to evolve, and of particularly low predictability at this extended time frame.
..Kerr.. 07/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, July 5
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 30%
- Monday, July 6
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Tuesday, July 7
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Wednesday, July 8
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, July 9
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, July 10
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, July 11
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, July 12
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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