Severe Weather Outlook

show me my personal outlook →

National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Sunday, August 23

Outlook Summary

Strong-to-severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds will be possible across portions of the northern Rockies and northern Plains. Additional severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds will be possible across portions of northern Utah.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 230609

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS…MUCH OF CENTRAL MONTANA…AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN

### SUMMARY

Strong-to-severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds will be possible across portions of the northern Rockies and northern Plains. Additional severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds will be possible across portions of northern Utah.

Synopsis

A sub-tropical mid-level ridge will remain in place across much of the West on Sunday, with a large-scale trough taking shape across much of the East. A seasonably strong short-wave trough will crest the ridge over southern Canada, with an attendant jet streak in its basal region moving across Montana. Broadly northwest mid-level flow will exist from the northern Plains east toward the Appalachians, between the western ridge and eastern trough.

### Intermountain West

A well-mixed boundary layer will develop during the afternoon as cooler mid-level temperatures associated with the approaching short-wave trough overspread the northern Rockies. Scattered thunderstorms should develop during the early to mid-afternoon within an environment with steepening mid-level lapse rates. Effective shear on the order of 30-40 knots will support multicell clusters and transient supercell structures capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts.

Farther south, multicell clusters should develop across eastern Nevada and western Utah during the late afternoon. Modest mid-level flow on the north side of the subtropical ridge, coupled with steep low-level lapse rates (inverted-V profiles) should support efficient downward momentum transfer with any sustained thunderstorm updraft.

### Northern Plains south into the Central High Plains

A plume of steep mid-level lapse rates will advect out from the northern Rockies and overspread a moistening warm sector. The result will be afternoon MUCAPE values between 2000-3000 J/kg. Although vertical shear is not overly strong, forecast soundings/hodographs suggest enough shear to support multicells and transient supercell structures. Large hail will be possible with these initial thunderstorms. With time, congealing outflows should support some potential for upscale growth toward an MCS. Steep lapse rates will support severe winds (some significant) with any organized thunderstorm cluster.

### Northeast US

Early morning convection should dissipate enough to support at least filtered sunshine during the late morning and early afternoon. This will support temperatures warming into the 70Fs to perhaps low 80Fs. This, when combined with upper 50Fs to low 60Fs dewpoints will support between 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE during the afternoon. Vertical ascent downstream of the eastern trough will support clusters of thunderstorms across the region. Modest mid-level lapse rates should limit a more robust hail threat, but the degree of ascent and instability will support a marginal risk of severe hail and damaging wind.

### Northern Gulf Coast toward the Coastal Carolinas

Strong diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer (dewpoint temperatures in the 70Fs) should support MUCAPE values between 3000-4000 J/kg during the afternoon. High precipitable water values will support water-loaded updrafts capable of producing isolated damaging downbursts with the strongest cells.

### Southern Arizona

Seasonably strong southeasterly mid-level flow will develop along the periphery of the mid-upper-level ridge. This enhanced flow will overspread a deeply mixed boundary layer (inverted-V) during the afternoon. In spite of the deeply mixed boundary layer, precipitable water values in excess of 1" will exist across the area during the late afternoon. This will support at least isolated thunderstorm clusters capable of producing damaging wind gusts.

### Southeast Kansas, Northeast Oklahoma, Southwest Missouri, and Northwest Arkansas

A low amplitude mid-level trough will move southeast across the Central US on Sunday, within the broader northwest flow. Although an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out with this feature during the afternoon, the more likely scenario is the environment across Kansas and Missouri remains capped during the afternoon.

By late evening, the mid-level trough/jet streak should be across southern Missouri or northeast Arkansas, placing northeast Oklahoma and southeast Kansas in the right entrance region of the mid-level jet. Guidance is pretty confident in developing a strong low-level jet across the southern Plains in response to this mid-level jet. The result will be increasing warm-air advection/isentropic ascent during the overnight. This will lead to scattered thunderstorm development, with movement off to the east-southeast. Mid-level lapse rates should only be on the order of 6.5 C/km, but cloud-bearing shear around 30-40 knots should support strong updrafts. DCAPE values between 500-1000 J/kg will support at least marginally severe downbursts capable of wind damage.

..Marsh/Weinman.. 08/23/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Monday, August 24

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms with at least isolated severe gusts/hail are possible across the northern Great Basin to the High Plains and northern Plains Monday afternoon and evening. A couple of damaging gusts may also occur with storms in Maine and along parts of the Gulf Coast to the eastern Carolinas.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 230551

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS…THE SOUTHEAST…AND NORTHERN MAINE

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms with at least isolated severe gusts/hail are possible across the northern Great Basin to the High Plains and northern Plains Monday afternoon and evening. A couple of damaging gusts may also occur with storms in Maine and along parts of the Gulf Coast to the eastern Carolinas.

Northern Plains

A mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the Canadian prairies on Monday with some weak height falls overspreading North Dakota and northern South Dakota. A weak surface low will accompany this trough with a cold front extending into the Dakotas. Moderate to potentially strong instability is forecast ahead of this cold front. Subtle forcing from the height falls and weak convergence along the front may support isolated storms during the afternoon/evening. Long/straight hodographs would support supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. Steep lapse rates will support some potential for 75+ mph wind gusts. In addition, if any longer lived supercells can develop, 2+ inch hail is also possible. Stronger forcing, hinted at by the more amplified mid-level trough on the 00Z NAM, would support greater storm coverage and potentially greater hail/wind probabilities in later outlooks.

Northern Great Basin into the central High Plains

Widely scattered storms are forecast to develop over the higher terrain from the northern Great Basin to the central Rockies. As storms move into the adjacent Plains, where strong heating and steep lapse rates are forecast, severe wind gusts are possible. Storm mode will be single cell to multicell, with only 15 to 25 knots of shear across the region. However, the thermodynamic profile will support an isolated severe wind threat.

Southeast

Temperatures in the mid to upper 80s amid mid 70s F dewpoints will yield MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg from Louisiana to the North Carolina coast. Despite weak tropospheric flow, enough moisture-fueled buoyancy will support the potential for wet downbursts capable of damaging gusts during the afternoon.

Maine

Deep-layer ascent ahead of an ejecting mid-level shortwave trough will support scattered thunderstorm development during the late morning into the afternoon hours across central and northern Maine. A belt of 60 kt 500 mb southwesterly flow will pivot around the upper trough and overspread Maine during the afternoon, when buoyancy will be maximized. MLCAPE may exceed 750 J/kg with over 50 kts of effective bulk/speed shear. Therefore, any storms that develop may become multicellular or transient supercellular in nature, posting an isolated damaging gust/hail threat through the afternoon.

..Bentley.. 08/23/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Tuesday, August 25

Outlook Summary

Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible across portions of the central Plains, the Southeast, and the Upper Midwest on Tuesday. A more focused region of severe wind gusts is possible across portions of the central High Plains.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 230728

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHWESTERN KANSAS AND VICINITY.

### SUMMARY

Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible across portions of the central Plains, the Southeast, and the Upper Midwest on Tuesday. A more focused region of severe wind gusts is possible across portions of the central High Plains.

Upper Midwest

A mid-level shortwave trough will move southeastward from the Canadian Prairies into the Upper Midwest on Tuesday. A surface low, and associated cold front, will move relatively quickly southeastward through the day. Mid 60s dewpoints are forecast ahead of this front which will result in moderate instability. Moderate flow associated with the mid-level jet streak will provide ample shear for storm organization. Storms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period near the Canadian border which may result in a somewhat messy storm mode through the day. However, farther south, more isolated storm development is possible. Given storm motion normal to the front and moderate mid-level flow, supercells will be possible. Relatively weak mid-level lapse rates and warmer temperatures aloft may limit the large hail threat somewhat.

Central Plains

A reservoir of strong instability is forecast across the central Plains where low 70s dewpoints are expected on Tuesday afternoon/evening. A weak mid-level shortwave trough (perhaps enhanced by Day 2 convection) is consistently shown among guidance which should move across this region during the afternoon/evening. The combination of a strongly unstable warm sector and forcing from this mid-level shortwave trough should result in scattered to widespread storm development Tuesday afternoon/evening. Effective shear around 30 to 35 knots should result in a combination of multicells and supercells initially with one or more clusters developing by evening as storms grow upscale. The most favorable region for a greater coverage of severe wind gusts will likely exist across northwest Kansas and vicinity where diurnal timing is favored and storm mode transition is expected.

Southeast

Strong heating is expected along the Gulf Coast south of a frontal zone. Shear will be very weak, but PWAT in excess of 2 inches and the hot air mass should support water-loaded downdrafts capable of isolated damaging wind gusts during the afternoon and early evening hours. A slightly greater coverage of storms and severe potential may exist across MS/AL downstream of early morning elevated convection forecast to develop across the Mid-Mississippi Valley.

..Bentley.. 08/23/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Wednesday, August 26

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230838 SPC AC 230838

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Wednesday to D6/Friday

A mid-level trough will amplify across the Great Lakes region while the mid-level ridge maintains its amplitude across the Rockies. Within this pattern, some severe weather potential may exist as a cold front moves from the Great Lakes to the Northeast. However, the signal is not that strong and thus, it is unclear if more than an isolated threat will exist; but the evolution of this front and the instability associated with it will be monitored.

D7/Saturday to D8/Sunday

There is still a fair amount of uncertainty with the evolution of the pattern by next weekend, but a general trend toward flattening of the upper-level ridge is apparent in the deterministic, AI, and ensemble guidance next weekend. This includes moderate flow within the zonal region across the central/northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest. This period will need to be watched closely as strong instability and moderate shear appear to overlap across a relatively broad region, which should support diurnal thunderstorm activity given the flattening of the ridge. The specific timing/location of these threats will depend on evolution of the pattern and the embedded shortwave troughs within the flow. However, it is worth noting that the EC-AIFS and the AIGFS both have a signal for a more consolidated mid-level shortwave trough moving across the northern Plains on Sunday/D8, which has also been consistently shown by the EC-AIFS for the past 4 runs. If this trend continues, there may be opportunities for probabilities to be added in later outlooks.

..Bentley.. 08/23/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Thursday, August 27

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230838 SPC AC 230838

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Wednesday to D6/Friday

A mid-level trough will amplify across the Great Lakes region while the mid-level ridge maintains its amplitude across the Rockies. Within this pattern, some severe weather potential may exist as a cold front moves from the Great Lakes to the Northeast. However, the signal is not that strong and thus, it is unclear if more than an isolated threat will exist; but the evolution of this front and the instability associated with it will be monitored.

D7/Saturday to D8/Sunday

There is still a fair amount of uncertainty with the evolution of the pattern by next weekend, but a general trend toward flattening of the upper-level ridge is apparent in the deterministic, AI, and ensemble guidance next weekend. This includes moderate flow within the zonal region across the central/northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest. This period will need to be watched closely as strong instability and moderate shear appear to overlap across a relatively broad region, which should support diurnal thunderstorm activity given the flattening of the ridge. The specific timing/location of these threats will depend on evolution of the pattern and the embedded shortwave troughs within the flow. However, it is worth noting that the EC-AIFS and the AIGFS both have a signal for a more consolidated mid-level shortwave trough moving across the northern Plains on Sunday/D8, which has also been consistently shown by the EC-AIFS for the past 4 runs. If this trend continues, there may be opportunities for probabilities to be added in later outlooks.

..Bentley.. 08/23/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Friday, August 28

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230838 SPC AC 230838

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Wednesday to D6/Friday

A mid-level trough will amplify across the Great Lakes region while the mid-level ridge maintains its amplitude across the Rockies. Within this pattern, some severe weather potential may exist as a cold front moves from the Great Lakes to the Northeast. However, the signal is not that strong and thus, it is unclear if more than an isolated threat will exist; but the evolution of this front and the instability associated with it will be monitored.

D7/Saturday to D8/Sunday

There is still a fair amount of uncertainty with the evolution of the pattern by next weekend, but a general trend toward flattening of the upper-level ridge is apparent in the deterministic, AI, and ensemble guidance next weekend. This includes moderate flow within the zonal region across the central/northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest. This period will need to be watched closely as strong instability and moderate shear appear to overlap across a relatively broad region, which should support diurnal thunderstorm activity given the flattening of the ridge. The specific timing/location of these threats will depend on evolution of the pattern and the embedded shortwave troughs within the flow. However, it is worth noting that the EC-AIFS and the AIGFS both have a signal for a more consolidated mid-level shortwave trough moving across the northern Plains on Sunday/D8, which has also been consistently shown by the EC-AIFS for the past 4 runs. If this trend continues, there may be opportunities for probabilities to be added in later outlooks.

..Bentley.. 08/23/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Saturday, August 29

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230838 SPC AC 230838

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Wednesday to D6/Friday

A mid-level trough will amplify across the Great Lakes region while the mid-level ridge maintains its amplitude across the Rockies. Within this pattern, some severe weather potential may exist as a cold front moves from the Great Lakes to the Northeast. However, the signal is not that strong and thus, it is unclear if more than an isolated threat will exist; but the evolution of this front and the instability associated with it will be monitored.

D7/Saturday to D8/Sunday

There is still a fair amount of uncertainty with the evolution of the pattern by next weekend, but a general trend toward flattening of the upper-level ridge is apparent in the deterministic, AI, and ensemble guidance next weekend. This includes moderate flow within the zonal region across the central/northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest. This period will need to be watched closely as strong instability and moderate shear appear to overlap across a relatively broad region, which should support diurnal thunderstorm activity given the flattening of the ridge. The specific timing/location of these threats will depend on evolution of the pattern and the embedded shortwave troughs within the flow. However, it is worth noting that the EC-AIFS and the AIGFS both have a signal for a more consolidated mid-level shortwave trough moving across the northern Plains on Sunday/D8, which has also been consistently shown by the EC-AIFS for the past 4 runs. If this trend continues, there may be opportunities for probabilities to be added in later outlooks.

..Bentley.. 08/23/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Sunday, August 30

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230838 SPC AC 230838

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Wednesday to D6/Friday

A mid-level trough will amplify across the Great Lakes region while the mid-level ridge maintains its amplitude across the Rockies. Within this pattern, some severe weather potential may exist as a cold front moves from the Great Lakes to the Northeast. However, the signal is not that strong and thus, it is unclear if more than an isolated threat will exist; but the evolution of this front and the instability associated with it will be monitored.

D7/Saturday to D8/Sunday

There is still a fair amount of uncertainty with the evolution of the pattern by next weekend, but a general trend toward flattening of the upper-level ridge is apparent in the deterministic, AI, and ensemble guidance next weekend. This includes moderate flow within the zonal region across the central/northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest. This period will need to be watched closely as strong instability and moderate shear appear to overlap across a relatively broad region, which should support diurnal thunderstorm activity given the flattening of the ridge. The specific timing/location of these threats will depend on evolution of the pattern and the embedded shortwave troughs within the flow. However, it is worth noting that the EC-AIFS and the AIGFS both have a signal for a more consolidated mid-level shortwave trough moving across the northern Plains on Sunday/D8, which has also been consistently shown by the EC-AIFS for the past 4 runs. If this trend continues, there may be opportunities for probabilities to be added in later outlooks.

..Bentley.. 08/23/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

National Risk Overview

Sunday, August 23

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Monday, August 24

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 5%

Tuesday, August 25

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Wednesday, August 26

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Thursday, August 27

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, August 28

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Saturday, August 29

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Sunday, August 30

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

---

Your Severe Outlook

---

---

About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.

• tornado hq - live severe weather warnings
• cyclocane - hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones
• tornado solitaire - play cards while you monitor the US severe weather threat
• tertremo - live view of earthquakes around the world
• earthquake solitaire - get live earthquake updates as you play your favorite card game