Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, September 3
Outlook Summary
Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight, including a few organizing clusters, posing a risk for severe wind and hail across parts of the southern Great Lakes into Mid Atlantic and portions of the northern Great Plains to the Upper Midwest.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 30%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 031955
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Thu Sep 03 2026
Valid 032000Z - 041200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
### THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES TO MID-ATLANTIC
### SUMMARY
Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight, including a few organizing clusters, posing a risk for severe wind and hail across parts of the southern Great Lakes into Mid Atlantic and portions of the northern Great Plains to the Upper Midwest.
20Z Update
Minor adjustments have been made to the outlook to account for recent convective trends and the latest high-resolution forecast guidance. Portions of the Slight Risk in North Dakota have been trimmed behind the ongoing convective complex that has since moved into northern Minnesota, given the trailing airmass has stabilized and is less likely to see additional convective development. Additionally, the Marginal Risk was expanded northward from Wisconsin into portions of Upper Michigan to account for recent guidance trending northward with the overnight convective complex and its associated damaging-wind threat. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains unchanged and on-track for this evening.
..Halbert/Weinman.. 09/03/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1140 AM CDT Thu Sep 03 2026/
Lake Michigan/upper Ohio River Valley/Northeast
Several clusters of storms are ongoing at midday across the Lake Michigan vicinity and lower Michigan, including a smaller lead cluster entering Ontario, while other convection farther east-southeast has weakened/diminished across southern Pennsylvania/Maryland. Regarding the easternmost activity, steady air mass recovery/diminishing cloud cover appears likely, with ample insolation across the Northeast along/south of the primary synoptic front including much of Pennsylvania.
Available regional 12z observed soundings/RAOBs sampled a belt of moderately strong northwesterly flow aloft that overlies the primary frontal zone, with moderate to locally strong destabilization expected outside of the ongoing convection. Some initial supercells are possible, but more prevalent will be the possibility of upscale-growing linear bands/clusters, potentially with multiple rounds of strong/severe convection this afternoon into tonight with wind damage. This currently appears most probable across northern Ohio into Pennsylvania.
Upper Midwest - eastern North Dakota/northern Minnesota
A slow-moving linear cluster of occasionally severe storms may persist and gradually accelerate east and maybe eventually east-southeastward today, potentially becoming more surface based by later in the afternoon as it parallels the immediate north side of a surface frontal zone. This development is being influenced by a northeastward-transitioning shortwave trough along the international border, with a belt of strong mid/high-level winds extending eastward across the northern half of Minnesota toward the Lake Superior vicinity.
A mixed convective mode seems probable, with a prominent quasi-linear mode but also the possibility of south-end semi-discrete development including supercells. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary hazards, but some tornado risk may exist as well. One or more clusters may persist east-southeastward across the region this evening.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Friday, September 4
Outlook Summary
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms, mainly producing damaging gusts, are expected across portions of the upper Ohio Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic on Friday. More isolated severe storms capable of severe winds and large hail may occur over parts of the Midwest Friday afternoon into night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 031655
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Thu Sep 03 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
### SUMMARY
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms, mainly producing damaging gusts, are expected across portions of the upper Ohio Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic on Friday. More isolated severe storms capable of severe winds and large hail may occur over parts of the Midwest Friday afternoon into night.
Synopsis
A mid-level ridge over central North America will undergo considerable amplification between troughs located over the western CONUS and eastern Canada into the Northeast. Subtle disturbances embedded within the broader-scale flow regime will focus thunderstorm development, one of which will progress from the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic on Friday.
At the surface, a lee cyclone will develop over the northern High Plains with an associated surface front stretching from the northern Plains through the upper Midwest and Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic coast. The specific location of that boundary by afternoon may be affected by convective outflow associated with thunderstorm activity tonight into Friday morning.
### Upper Ohio Valley to southern Mid-Atlantic
There is good agreement across 12Z model guidance that thunderstorms will be ongoing at 12Z Friday over portions of the Great Lakes ahead of the mid-level disturbance mentioned above. A subset of those storms may linger through the morning over the upper OH Valley with an associated risk for damaging wind gusts.
By afternoon, daytime heating across the downstream air mass over the southern Mid-Atlantic will combine with boundary-layer dewpoints in the low/mid 70s to yield moderate instability with MLCAPE up to 2000-2500 J/kg. That destabilization process, in conjunction with increased forcing for ascent associated with the approaching mid-level disturbance, will support intensification of any lingering storms moving into the region from the northwest. Additional storms are also possible along the effective surface front and lee trough. The presence of 25-35 kt of west-northwest deep-layer shear will be sufficient for episodic supercell and bowing structures with the predominant hazard being damaging wind gusts into evening.
A modest areal expansion of the Slight Risk wind probabilities has been applied to portions of the upper OH Valley given the scenario described above.
### Midwest
Owing to the proximity of the building mid-level ridge and resultant capping for surface-based parcels, convective evolution remains highly uncertain. The eastern extension of a steep mid-level lapse rate plume will overlie lower/mid 70s dewpoints in the vicinity of the surface front, supporting moderate to strong instability by afternoon with MLCAPE of 3000-4000+ J/kg. The 12Z convection-allowing and parameterized model guidance offers varying scenarios with respect to the timing and location of storm development from Friday afternoon through night. Deep-layer shear will be weaker than previous days; however, the magnitude of instability will be supportive of a conditional risk for large hail and damaging winds with any surface-based storms that can develop.
Marginal Risk wind and hail probabilities will be maintained in this forecast update due to the uncertainties mentioned above.
..Mead.. 09/03/2026
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Saturday, September 5
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts are possible across portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas on Saturday afternoon and evening. Isolated occurrences of large hail and severe wind gusts also appear possible over parts of the northern Plains and vicinity Saturday afternoon into night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 031918
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Thu Sep 03 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA…THE CAROLINAS…NORTHEAST TENNESSEE…AND FAR SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts are possible across portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas on Saturday afternoon and evening. Isolated occurrences of large hail and severe wind gusts also appear possible over parts of the northern Plains and vicinity Saturday afternoon into night.
Synopsis
A prominent, mid-level ridge will persist over the central U.S. with troughs on either side, over the western CONUS and in the Northeast. Similar to previous days, thunderstorm development will largely be associated with subtle mid-level disturbances embedded within the broader-scale pattern. One more notable perturbation is expected to progress from the OH Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas on Saturday. At the surface, an area of low pressure is forecast over the northern Plains with an attending boundary extending through the Midwest to the southern Mid-Atlantic or Carolinas.
### Ohio Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas
Latest model guidance is in good agreement in depicting a cluster of thunderstorms over portions of the Great Lakes into the OH Valley at 12Z Saturday, likely associated with the mid-level disturbance mentioned above. It remains unclear whether any of the early-day storms will persist into the afternoon. Those that do are likely to intensify as they encounter a hot, moist, and moderately unstable air mass present across portions of VA into the Carolinas. Additional, in-situ storm development appears possible along the primary front and lee trough. An increase in mid-level flow and resultant deep-layer shear (up to 30-35 kt) is expected with the arrival of the mid-level disturbance, suggesting the potential for organized storm modes, with the primary hazard being damaging wind gusts Saturday afternoon and evening.
### Northern Plains
Moderate to strong instability is forecast Saturday afternoon in the vicinity of the surface low and attending front. The close proximity to the mid-level ridge leads to uncertainty in convective evolution through the forecast period. However, a number of models, both ensemble and deterministic, indicate storm development during the peak of the diurnal heating cycle. Given the degree of instability and ample deep-layer shear, a few severe storms appear possible with the primary hazards being large hail and severe wind gusts.
..Mead.. 09/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Sunday, September 6
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, September 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, September 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, September 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, September 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, September 10 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030738 SPC AC 030738
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 AM CDT Thu Sep 03 2026
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough will persist across the central CONUS through early next week, before gradually weakening in favor of more amplified, progressive upper troughs. Through the beginning of next week, a few impulses ejecting into the northern Plains may be accompanied by enough buoyancy and vertical wind shear to support an isolated severe threat. However, confidence is too low to delineate a more focused severe threat at this time. Likewise, there is a lack of consensus among medium-range deterministic and ML/AI guidance regarding the track and timing of any particular shortwave upper trough later next week, precluding the introduction of any severe probabilities this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 09/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, September 7
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, September 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, September 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, September 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, September 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, September 10 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030738 SPC AC 030738
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 AM CDT Thu Sep 03 2026
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough will persist across the central CONUS through early next week, before gradually weakening in favor of more amplified, progressive upper troughs. Through the beginning of next week, a few impulses ejecting into the northern Plains may be accompanied by enough buoyancy and vertical wind shear to support an isolated severe threat. However, confidence is too low to delineate a more focused severe threat at this time. Likewise, there is a lack of consensus among medium-range deterministic and ML/AI guidance regarding the track and timing of any particular shortwave upper trough later next week, precluding the introduction of any severe probabilities this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 09/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, September 8
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, September 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, September 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, September 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, September 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, September 10 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030738 SPC AC 030738
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 AM CDT Thu Sep 03 2026
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough will persist across the central CONUS through early next week, before gradually weakening in favor of more amplified, progressive upper troughs. Through the beginning of next week, a few impulses ejecting into the northern Plains may be accompanied by enough buoyancy and vertical wind shear to support an isolated severe threat. However, confidence is too low to delineate a more focused severe threat at this time. Likewise, there is a lack of consensus among medium-range deterministic and ML/AI guidance regarding the track and timing of any particular shortwave upper trough later next week, precluding the introduction of any severe probabilities this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 09/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, September 9
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, September 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, September 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, September 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, September 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, September 10 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030738 SPC AC 030738
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 AM CDT Thu Sep 03 2026
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough will persist across the central CONUS through early next week, before gradually weakening in favor of more amplified, progressive upper troughs. Through the beginning of next week, a few impulses ejecting into the northern Plains may be accompanied by enough buoyancy and vertical wind shear to support an isolated severe threat. However, confidence is too low to delineate a more focused severe threat at this time. Likewise, there is a lack of consensus among medium-range deterministic and ML/AI guidance regarding the track and timing of any particular shortwave upper trough later next week, precluding the introduction of any severe probabilities this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 09/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, September 10
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, September 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, September 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, September 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, September 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, September 10 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030738 SPC AC 030738
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 AM CDT Thu Sep 03 2026
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough will persist across the central CONUS through early next week, before gradually weakening in favor of more amplified, progressive upper troughs. Through the beginning of next week, a few impulses ejecting into the northern Plains may be accompanied by enough buoyancy and vertical wind shear to support an isolated severe threat. However, confidence is too low to delineate a more focused severe threat at this time. Likewise, there is a lack of consensus among medium-range deterministic and ML/AI guidance regarding the track and timing of any particular shortwave upper trough later next week, precluding the introduction of any severe probabilities this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 09/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, September 3
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 30%
- Friday, September 4
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Saturday, September 5
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Sunday, September 6
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, September 7
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, September 8
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, September 9
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, September 10
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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