Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, January 24
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 250049
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
Valid 250100Z - 251200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight.
01z Update
Southern-stream upper low is beginning to eject across northern Mexico. Latest water-vapor imagery depicts this feature well and scattered thunderstorms have developed ahead of the primary midlevel vort just south of the international border. Isolated thunderstorms are noted north of the border across southeast AZ, but this activity should gradually weaken over the next few hours. However, stronger forcing is expected to aid elevated convection that will spread across portions of far West TX this evening and thunderstorm probabilities will reflect this risk through at least 06z tonight. Downstream, warm advection will continue to be the primary mechanism for more sporadic thunderstorms atop the cooler polar air mass. Additionally, boundary layer destabilization will be retarded across the lower MS Valley through 12z, and for this reason robust thunderstorms are not forecast.
..Darrow.. 01/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Sunday, January 25
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the eastern Gulf Coast states Sunday morning and afternoon. Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are the main concerns.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 241720
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF FAR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA…SOUTHERN GEORGIA…AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the eastern Gulf Coast states Sunday morning and afternoon. Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are the main concerns.
Synopsis
A surface low will traverse the Gulf Coast states tomorrow (Sunday) morning and early afternoon, before ejecting northeast toward the Mid Atlantic as a mid-level trough deepens east of the MS River. A constrained warm sector will become established ahead of a progressive surface cold front and south of a warm front over southeast MS into southern AL/GA during the morning/early afternoon hours. Strong flow aloft will overspread this warm sector, resulting in enough overlapping buoyancy and vertical wind shear to support a severe threat along the Gulf Coast.
Southeast Gulf Coast States
Thunderstorms should be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z Sunday) across parts of LA/MS, and should begin focusing into a linear band along/immediately ahead of a cold front with the development of the surface low. A warm front will be positioned somewhere over the southern third of AL/MS Sunday morning, delineating the warm sector to the south, characterized by mid to upper 60s F surface temperatures and mid 60s F dewpoints. Tropospheric lapse rates should be meager though (i.e. 5.5-6 C/km), resulting in thin buoyancy profiles. However, nearly 100 kt west-southwesterly 500 mb flow atop a 60+ kt southwesterly low-level jet overspreading the warm front (with locally backed winds) will support large, elongated hodographs with at least modest low-level curvature. As such, a high shear/low-CAPE parameter space will precede an intensifying QLCS through Sunday morning/early afternoon across southeast MS into southern AL and GA, where and when the severe threat is expected to be greatest.
While strong linear forcing will support a QLCS, minimal MLCINH ahead of the front suggests that a couple of low-topped supercells cannot be ruled out. While MLCAPE may struggle to exceed 500 J/kg over most locales, widespread 60+ kts of effective bulk shear and 400+ m2/s2 0-3 km SRH should support some threat for damaging gusts and at least a few tornadoes. The best chance for tornadoes will be with storms interacting with the warm front, where low-level hodograph curvature will be maximized. If a sustained supercell manages to develop, a strong tornado cannot be ruled out as the storm crosses the warm front. Later Sunday afternoon, the surface low and forcing for ascent will drift away from the warm sector. With a wedge front also expected to stall warm sector recovery from central GA north/northeastward, the severe threat should wane through the day.
..Squitieri.. 01/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Monday, January 26
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms appear unlikely Monday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 241858
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms appear unlikely Monday.
Synopsis
A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic on Monday, resulting in widespread surface high pressure and an accompanying polar airmass to overspread the CONUS, diminishing thunderstorm potential. A surface cold front will sweep across the central and southern FL Peninsula Monday morning and afternoon. While a thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled, deep-layer ascent will remain primarily north of the state, which will limit thunderstorm development, warranting the withholding of thunderstorm probabilities this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 01/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Tuesday, January 27
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, January 27 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, January 28 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, January 29 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, January 30 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, January 31 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240956 SPC AC 240956
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
Amplified mid-level flow will persist over the US through the remainder of the extended forecast period. Continued troughing in the eastern US will be supported by the arrival of multiple perturbations from southern Canada over the next week. At the same time, strong ridging developing over the West will favor northwesterly flow aloft over the central States. This will allow for multiple reinforcing surges of cold air to replenish a cold, dry and stable air mass. Thus, severe thunderstorms are unlikely through day 8.
..Lyons.. 01/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, January 28
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, January 27 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, January 28 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, January 29 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, January 30 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, January 31 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240956 SPC AC 240956
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
Amplified mid-level flow will persist over the US through the remainder of the extended forecast period. Continued troughing in the eastern US will be supported by the arrival of multiple perturbations from southern Canada over the next week. At the same time, strong ridging developing over the West will favor northwesterly flow aloft over the central States. This will allow for multiple reinforcing surges of cold air to replenish a cold, dry and stable air mass. Thus, severe thunderstorms are unlikely through day 8.
..Lyons.. 01/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, January 29
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, January 27 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, January 28 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, January 29 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, January 30 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, January 31 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240956 SPC AC 240956
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
Amplified mid-level flow will persist over the US through the remainder of the extended forecast period. Continued troughing in the eastern US will be supported by the arrival of multiple perturbations from southern Canada over the next week. At the same time, strong ridging developing over the West will favor northwesterly flow aloft over the central States. This will allow for multiple reinforcing surges of cold air to replenish a cold, dry and stable air mass. Thus, severe thunderstorms are unlikely through day 8.
..Lyons.. 01/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, January 30
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, January 27 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, January 28 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, January 29 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, January 30 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, January 31 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240956 SPC AC 240956
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
Amplified mid-level flow will persist over the US through the remainder of the extended forecast period. Continued troughing in the eastern US will be supported by the arrival of multiple perturbations from southern Canada over the next week. At the same time, strong ridging developing over the West will favor northwesterly flow aloft over the central States. This will allow for multiple reinforcing surges of cold air to replenish a cold, dry and stable air mass. Thus, severe thunderstorms are unlikely through day 8.
..Lyons.. 01/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, January 31
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, January 27 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, January 28 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, January 29 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, January 30 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, January 31 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240956 SPC AC 240956
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
Amplified mid-level flow will persist over the US through the remainder of the extended forecast period. Continued troughing in the eastern US will be supported by the arrival of multiple perturbations from southern Canada over the next week. At the same time, strong ridging developing over the West will favor northwesterly flow aloft over the central States. This will allow for multiple reinforcing surges of cold air to replenish a cold, dry and stable air mass. Thus, severe thunderstorms are unlikely through day 8.
..Lyons.. 01/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, January 24
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Sunday, January 25
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 15%
- Monday, January 26
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Tuesday, January 27
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, January 28
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, January 29
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, January 30
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, January 31
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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