Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, March 8
Outlook Summary
Isolated, marginally severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and early evening across parts of the Carolinas to southeast Virginia. A few strong storms may linger over southern Texas.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 080501
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 PM CST Sat Mar 07 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF NORTH CAROLINA…NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA…AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA
### SUMMARY
Isolated, marginally severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and early evening across parts of the Carolinas to southeast Virginia. A few strong storms may linger over southern Texas.
Carolinas into southeast Virginia
A positive-tilt upper trough will move across the Northeast today, with tail end sweeping across the Mid Atlantic and Southeast. A surface trough / front will extend roughly from NJ/DelMarva into the Piedmont, with 60s F dewpoints ahead of the wind shift. Daytime heating will result in 500-1000 J/kg with generally poor lapse rates aloft. However, peak heating will steepen low-level lapse rates, and perhaps support locally strong outflow winds as storms develop on the boundary after 18Z. Forecast wind profiles suggest mixed-mode storms with both cells and small bows will be possible, and marginal hail cannot be ruled out as effective shear tops 35 kt.
Southern TX
Shortwave ridging will occur over TX today, which may induce weak warm advection atop the surface front. Despite northerly winds at the surface, a band of midlevel moisture may remain aloft, supporting scattered thunderstorms at various times of the day. The weak synoptic ascent will probably result in minimal severe (hail) chances today.
..Jewell/Moore.. 03/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Monday, March 9
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday from the Arklatex into the lower Mississippi Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 071931
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CST Sat Mar 07 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday from the Arklatex into the lower Mississippi Valley.
Arklatex into the lower Mississippi Valley
To the south of the primary belt of midlevel westerlies extending across the northern CONUS, a low-amplitude impulse and accompanying speed max will overspread the lower MS Valley during the afternoon. Here, steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread deep/rich boundary-layer moisture (middle/upper 60s dewpoints). This should yield weak to moderate surface-based buoyancy by the afternoon. Given the low-amplitude nature of the midlevel wave and lack of any substantial low-level fronts, thunderstorm coverage remains uncertain. However, around 50 kt of deep-layer shear and sufficient surface-based buoyancy will favor organized storms to include the potential for supercells. The primary concern with any stronger storms that can develop will be large hail and damaging gusts, though some tornado risk is also possible. A corridor of greater severe potential is possible (depending on the degree of diurnal heating and mesoscale ascent), though confidence for an upgrade is too low at this time.
..Weinman.. 03/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Tuesday, March 10
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, March 10 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, March 11 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Thursday, March 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, March 13 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, March 14 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070834 SPC AC 070834
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-5/Tue-Wed
An active pattern with severe thunderstorm potential is expected Tuesday and Wednesday from the southern Plains to the Mid/Lower MS and OH Valleys. Medium range guidance is in fairly good agreement during this time. Starting on Tuesday, an upper low over northern Mexico will shift east/northeast, becoming an open wave as it begins to merge with a northern stream upper trough developing southeast across the northern/central Plains through early Wednesday. A belt of strong southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread a large warm sector on Tuesday. Lee cyclogenesis is forecast across the central/southern High Plains, along with a second surface low developing over IA as the northern stream upper trough approaches. This setup will allow for a sharpening dryline/Pacific front across the southern Plains, while a cold front develops southeast into the MO/Mid-MS Valley overnight. Strong ascent should focus thunderstorm development across the warm sector ahead of these surface boundaries within a strongly sheared environment, and potentially widespread severe thunderstorm activity is possible.
The large-scale upper trough and attendant surface cold front will continue to progress eastward on Wednesday. Uncertainty does increase, especially with north and east extent of severe potential. How far east convection develops on Tuesday and how much downstream destabilization occurs is somewhat unclear. Nevertheless, a deepening surface cyclone is forecast to develop northeast from the Great Lakes into Ontario and Quebec, while strong deep layer southwesterly flow overspreads a moist warm sector ahead of the surface front. This should set the stage for at least isolated to scattered severe thunderstorm potential along the length of the cold front through Wednesday evening.
Given uncertainties mentioned above, these areas are likely to be adjusted in coming days as details become better resolved, but the overall pattern should support a couple of active severe weather days over a broad area.
Day 6/Thu
Uncertainty increases by Thursday as spread among medium range guidance increases quite a bit with respect to the evolution/timing of the upper trough. Some severe potential could persist/develop across the Mid-Atlantic region, but predictability is too low to include a 15 percent delineation at this time.
Beyond Thursday, severe thunderstorm potential will likely be low as the upper pattern become lower amplitude and stronger westerly flow remains confined to the northern tier of the U.S., along with Gulf moisture largely remaining offshore behind the cold frontal passage.
..Leitman.. 03/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, March 11
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, March 10 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, March 11 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Thursday, March 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, March 13 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, March 14 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070834 SPC AC 070834
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-5/Tue-Wed
An active pattern with severe thunderstorm potential is expected Tuesday and Wednesday from the southern Plains to the Mid/Lower MS and OH Valleys. Medium range guidance is in fairly good agreement during this time. Starting on Tuesday, an upper low over northern Mexico will shift east/northeast, becoming an open wave as it begins to merge with a northern stream upper trough developing southeast across the northern/central Plains through early Wednesday. A belt of strong southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread a large warm sector on Tuesday. Lee cyclogenesis is forecast across the central/southern High Plains, along with a second surface low developing over IA as the northern stream upper trough approaches. This setup will allow for a sharpening dryline/Pacific front across the southern Plains, while a cold front develops southeast into the MO/Mid-MS Valley overnight. Strong ascent should focus thunderstorm development across the warm sector ahead of these surface boundaries within a strongly sheared environment, and potentially widespread severe thunderstorm activity is possible.
The large-scale upper trough and attendant surface cold front will continue to progress eastward on Wednesday. Uncertainty does increase, especially with north and east extent of severe potential. How far east convection develops on Tuesday and how much downstream destabilization occurs is somewhat unclear. Nevertheless, a deepening surface cyclone is forecast to develop northeast from the Great Lakes into Ontario and Quebec, while strong deep layer southwesterly flow overspreads a moist warm sector ahead of the surface front. This should set the stage for at least isolated to scattered severe thunderstorm potential along the length of the cold front through Wednesday evening.
Given uncertainties mentioned above, these areas are likely to be adjusted in coming days as details become better resolved, but the overall pattern should support a couple of active severe weather days over a broad area.
Day 6/Thu
Uncertainty increases by Thursday as spread among medium range guidance increases quite a bit with respect to the evolution/timing of the upper trough. Some severe potential could persist/develop across the Mid-Atlantic region, but predictability is too low to include a 15 percent delineation at this time.
Beyond Thursday, severe thunderstorm potential will likely be low as the upper pattern become lower amplitude and stronger westerly flow remains confined to the northern tier of the U.S., along with Gulf moisture largely remaining offshore behind the cold frontal passage.
..Leitman.. 03/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, March 12
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, March 10 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, March 11 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Thursday, March 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, March 13 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, March 14 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070834 SPC AC 070834
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-5/Tue-Wed
An active pattern with severe thunderstorm potential is expected Tuesday and Wednesday from the southern Plains to the Mid/Lower MS and OH Valleys. Medium range guidance is in fairly good agreement during this time. Starting on Tuesday, an upper low over northern Mexico will shift east/northeast, becoming an open wave as it begins to merge with a northern stream upper trough developing southeast across the northern/central Plains through early Wednesday. A belt of strong southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread a large warm sector on Tuesday. Lee cyclogenesis is forecast across the central/southern High Plains, along with a second surface low developing over IA as the northern stream upper trough approaches. This setup will allow for a sharpening dryline/Pacific front across the southern Plains, while a cold front develops southeast into the MO/Mid-MS Valley overnight. Strong ascent should focus thunderstorm development across the warm sector ahead of these surface boundaries within a strongly sheared environment, and potentially widespread severe thunderstorm activity is possible.
The large-scale upper trough and attendant surface cold front will continue to progress eastward on Wednesday. Uncertainty does increase, especially with north and east extent of severe potential. How far east convection develops on Tuesday and how much downstream destabilization occurs is somewhat unclear. Nevertheless, a deepening surface cyclone is forecast to develop northeast from the Great Lakes into Ontario and Quebec, while strong deep layer southwesterly flow overspreads a moist warm sector ahead of the surface front. This should set the stage for at least isolated to scattered severe thunderstorm potential along the length of the cold front through Wednesday evening.
Given uncertainties mentioned above, these areas are likely to be adjusted in coming days as details become better resolved, but the overall pattern should support a couple of active severe weather days over a broad area.
Day 6/Thu
Uncertainty increases by Thursday as spread among medium range guidance increases quite a bit with respect to the evolution/timing of the upper trough. Some severe potential could persist/develop across the Mid-Atlantic region, but predictability is too low to include a 15 percent delineation at this time.
Beyond Thursday, severe thunderstorm potential will likely be low as the upper pattern become lower amplitude and stronger westerly flow remains confined to the northern tier of the U.S., along with Gulf moisture largely remaining offshore behind the cold frontal passage.
..Leitman.. 03/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, March 13
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, March 10 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, March 11 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Thursday, March 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, March 13 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, March 14 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070834 SPC AC 070834
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-5/Tue-Wed
An active pattern with severe thunderstorm potential is expected Tuesday and Wednesday from the southern Plains to the Mid/Lower MS and OH Valleys. Medium range guidance is in fairly good agreement during this time. Starting on Tuesday, an upper low over northern Mexico will shift east/northeast, becoming an open wave as it begins to merge with a northern stream upper trough developing southeast across the northern/central Plains through early Wednesday. A belt of strong southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread a large warm sector on Tuesday. Lee cyclogenesis is forecast across the central/southern High Plains, along with a second surface low developing over IA as the northern stream upper trough approaches. This setup will allow for a sharpening dryline/Pacific front across the southern Plains, while a cold front develops southeast into the MO/Mid-MS Valley overnight. Strong ascent should focus thunderstorm development across the warm sector ahead of these surface boundaries within a strongly sheared environment, and potentially widespread severe thunderstorm activity is possible.
The large-scale upper trough and attendant surface cold front will continue to progress eastward on Wednesday. Uncertainty does increase, especially with north and east extent of severe potential. How far east convection develops on Tuesday and how much downstream destabilization occurs is somewhat unclear. Nevertheless, a deepening surface cyclone is forecast to develop northeast from the Great Lakes into Ontario and Quebec, while strong deep layer southwesterly flow overspreads a moist warm sector ahead of the surface front. This should set the stage for at least isolated to scattered severe thunderstorm potential along the length of the cold front through Wednesday evening.
Given uncertainties mentioned above, these areas are likely to be adjusted in coming days as details become better resolved, but the overall pattern should support a couple of active severe weather days over a broad area.
Day 6/Thu
Uncertainty increases by Thursday as spread among medium range guidance increases quite a bit with respect to the evolution/timing of the upper trough. Some severe potential could persist/develop across the Mid-Atlantic region, but predictability is too low to include a 15 percent delineation at this time.
Beyond Thursday, severe thunderstorm potential will likely be low as the upper pattern become lower amplitude and stronger westerly flow remains confined to the northern tier of the U.S., along with Gulf moisture largely remaining offshore behind the cold frontal passage.
..Leitman.. 03/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, March 14
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, March 10 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, March 11 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Thursday, March 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, March 13 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, March 14 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070834 SPC AC 070834
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-5/Tue-Wed
An active pattern with severe thunderstorm potential is expected Tuesday and Wednesday from the southern Plains to the Mid/Lower MS and OH Valleys. Medium range guidance is in fairly good agreement during this time. Starting on Tuesday, an upper low over northern Mexico will shift east/northeast, becoming an open wave as it begins to merge with a northern stream upper trough developing southeast across the northern/central Plains through early Wednesday. A belt of strong southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread a large warm sector on Tuesday. Lee cyclogenesis is forecast across the central/southern High Plains, along with a second surface low developing over IA as the northern stream upper trough approaches. This setup will allow for a sharpening dryline/Pacific front across the southern Plains, while a cold front develops southeast into the MO/Mid-MS Valley overnight. Strong ascent should focus thunderstorm development across the warm sector ahead of these surface boundaries within a strongly sheared environment, and potentially widespread severe thunderstorm activity is possible.
The large-scale upper trough and attendant surface cold front will continue to progress eastward on Wednesday. Uncertainty does increase, especially with north and east extent of severe potential. How far east convection develops on Tuesday and how much downstream destabilization occurs is somewhat unclear. Nevertheless, a deepening surface cyclone is forecast to develop northeast from the Great Lakes into Ontario and Quebec, while strong deep layer southwesterly flow overspreads a moist warm sector ahead of the surface front. This should set the stage for at least isolated to scattered severe thunderstorm potential along the length of the cold front through Wednesday evening.
Given uncertainties mentioned above, these areas are likely to be adjusted in coming days as details become better resolved, but the overall pattern should support a couple of active severe weather days over a broad area.
Day 6/Thu
Uncertainty increases by Thursday as spread among medium range guidance increases quite a bit with respect to the evolution/timing of the upper trough. Some severe potential could persist/develop across the Mid-Atlantic region, but predictability is too low to include a 15 percent delineation at this time.
Beyond Thursday, severe thunderstorm potential will likely be low as the upper pattern become lower amplitude and stronger westerly flow remains confined to the northern tier of the U.S., along with Gulf moisture largely remaining offshore behind the cold frontal passage.
..Leitman.. 03/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, March 8
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Monday, March 9
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Tuesday, March 10
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Wednesday, March 11
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Thursday, March 12
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, March 13
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, March 14
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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