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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Wednesday, July 8
Thursday, July 9
Friday, July 10
Saturday, July 11
Sunday, July 12
Monday, July 13
Tuesday, July 14
Wednesday, July 15

Outlook for Wednesday, July 8

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains, and from the Missouri Valley into the upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated severe gusts may also occur from the northern Great Basin into the northern High Plains and from North Carolina into southern Virginia.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 30%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 081243

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO…FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA…AND NORTHWEST KANSAS

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains, and from the Missouri Valley into the upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated severe gusts may also occur from the northern Great Basin into the northern High Plains and from North Carolina into southern Virginia.

Central High Plains across the central Plains and Mid MO Valley into the Upper Midwest

Early-morning surface analysis reveals a cold front extending southwestward from north-central MN to a low southeast SD, where the front then becomes oriented more westerly across southern SD before arcing back northwestward across northeast WY and central MT. This front is expected to make gradual southward/southeastward progress today, before becoming more diffuse under the influence of storm outflow late in the period. Ample low-level moisture will be place ahead of this front by the late afternoon, with dewpoints likely ranging from the low/mid 60s across central NE into the upper 60s/low 70s across northern IA, southern MN, and northern WI. The strongest buoyancy is expected from eastern NE into western/northwestern IA, where the best overlap between the higher surface dewpoints and the eastern extent of the steep mid-level lapse rates exists.

Thunderstorm development is expected first from the eastern/northeastern IA into the Upper Midwest, where convergence along the front will be augmented by large-scale ascent attendant to an approaching low-amplitude shortwave trough. A few stronger updrafts are possible in this region, but more modest buoyancy should limit updraft persistence, with a quick trend towards a more outflow-dominant storm mode. Stronger buoyancy will support more robust updrafts from central IA western into central NE, although modest deep-layer vertical shear should limit organization in this area as well. Stronger updrafts could contribute to stronger downdrafts, as well as isolated hail, with a slightly higher overall severe potential here than areas farther northeast.

A somewhat separate regime is anticipated farther west across the central High Plains. Here, moist, post-frontal, upslope flow will result in moderate buoyancy across the NE Panhandle into eastern WY, supporting airmass destabilization and late afternoon thunderstorm development. Moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear, resulting from easterly low-level flow beneath moderate northwesterly flow aloft, is anticipated over this region as well. An initially cellular mode is likely, with some large hail possible, with fairly quick upscale growth likely. High cloud bases atop a warm and deeply mixed boundary layer will support strong outflow, which, when combined with the strong deep-layer shear, could result in one or more organized bowing segments.

These two regimes come together across south-central NE/north-central KS overnight, amid a strengthen low-level jet, but predictability on the overall convective evolution is limited. Seemingly some severe potential could linger across south-central/southeast NE into north-central/northeast KS overnight.

Northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies

A low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to progress through the northern periphery of the upper ridging in place over the Four Corners vicinity. Mid-level moisture associated with this wave coupled with strong heating will result in airmass destabilization and the development of widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms. High storm bases atop a deeply mixed boundary layer will support the potential for damaging gusts with the stronger storms.

North Carolina/Southern Virginia.. A very moist airmass will be in place today from the Mid-Atlantic southward into the Carolinas. Surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s F will contribute to an axis of moderate to strong instability across parts of North Carolina and southern Virginia. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop in the foothills of the Appalachians, with the storms moving eastward into the lower elevations during the afternoon. The instability combined with steep low-level lapse rates will support an isolated wind-damage threat.

Southern AZ

Increased mid-level moisture will support thunderstorm development across the higher terrain of eastern AZ during the afternoon. Westward drift of the upper ridge will result in modest easterly mid-level flow over the region, with some potential for the thunderstorms to progress westward into the lower elevations during the late afternoon. A few strong gusts are possible but uncertainty regarding coverage precludes introducing any probabilities with this outlook.

..Mosier/Thornton.. 07/08/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

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Outlook for Thursday, July 9

Outlook Summary

Scattered strong thunderstorm development, potentially including a few evolving clusters, may impact portions of the central Great Plains and lower Missouri Valley through lower Ohio Valley Thursday through Thursday night, posing a risk for severe wind gusts and some hail.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind 15%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 080527

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Scattered strong thunderstorm development, potentially including a few evolving clusters, may impact portions of the central Great Plains and lower Missouri Valley through lower Ohio Valley Thursday through Thursday night, posing a risk for severe wind gusts and some hail.

Discussion

Modest mid-latitude westerlies likely will remain centered near the Canadian/U.S border through this period. In the wake of one short wave trough slowly continuing to pivot northward into the Northwest Territories, and ahead of another digging near the British Columbia coast, broad mid-level ridging is forecast to build across the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity Thursday through Thursday night. Downstream, to the south of a perturbation digging southeast of Hudson/James Bays, broad mid-level troughing is forecast to overspread the lower Great Lakes through northern Atlantic Seaboard.

In lower latitudes, a number of more subtle perturbations are forecast to progress through generally weak zonal flow, around the northern periphery of mid-level ridging centered in the subtropics. However, there remains a notable signal within model output that at least a couple of these may be amplified by developing convection, accompanied by belts of strengthening flow which could promote organizing convection capable of producing swaths of strong to severe wind gusts.

While the most substantive thunderstorm development through this period appears likely to focus east of the Front Range into portions of the lower Missouri Valley through Ohio Valley, as well as across parts of the northern Mid Atlantic, more widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development appears possible closer to the mid-latitude westerlies. This may focus along a weak surface front advancing slowly southward across parts of the lower Great Lakes through northern New England, and within lee surface troughing across parts of the northern Great Plains.

Lower Missouri/Ohio Valleys

Most guidance continues to indicate the generation of one or two notable mesoscale convective vortices and associated jet streaks, at least initially emanating from convection developing across the central Great Plains Wednesday night. The NAM continues to forecast the strongest convective perturbation, though the 08/00Z run now suggests that this will occur with convection overspreading east central Missouri into southern Illinois late Thursday night. Otherwise, a consensus of guidance generally suggests the development of strengthening westerly mid-level flow (on the order of 30-50 kt around 700 mb) in a belt across the lower Missouri Valley during the day, before slowly shifting toward the lower Ohio Valley through Thursday night.

Based on latest model output, strongest renewed thunderstorm development seems most probable within forcing for ascent associated with strengthening low-level warm advection, along an outflow boundary trailing the initial MCV. Aided by inflow of seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content (including surface dew points in the 70s) supportive of CAPE on the order of 2000+ J/kg, vertical shear may become supportive of a sustained organized convective system with potential to produce strong to severe wind gusts by Thursday evening into Thursday night, if not earlier.

Front Range into central Great Plains

Latest model output continues to indicate that moistening southeasterly low-level flow across the high plains will destabilize sufficiently by late afternoon to support intensifying thunderstorm development off the Front Range. Aided by shear due to pronounced veering of winds with height from the surface to mid-levels, this may include widely scattered supercells initially.

Aided by forcing for ascent downstream of an approaching mid-level perturbation, convection-allowing guidance suggests that storms will subsequently increase in number across the high plains, with consolidating cold pools supporting further upscale growth and eastward propagation. Forcing for ascent near the nose of a strengthening nocturnal southerly low-level jet may contribute to maintenance of a cluster with potential to produce strong to severe gusts into late evening/overnight across the southwestern Kansas vicinity.

Mid Atlantic

Destabilization within lee surface troughing may become sufficient to support thunderstorm development with potential to produce strong wind gusts and grow upscale Thursday afternoon into evening, aided by forcing for ascent and modest strengthening of mid-level flow, associated with a remnant short wave impulse emerging from the Tennessee Valley.

Southeastern Arizona

Convection-allowing and related guidance suggests that thunderstorm development is probable Thursday afternoon across parts of the Mogollon Rim into higher terrain of southwestern New Mexico, and perhaps southeastern Arizona, around the eastern periphery of a weakening mid-level ridge. Aided by light northeasterly steering flow off the mountains, into a hot and deeply mixed boundary layer with at least weak CAPE, a few strong downbursts appear possible, with potential for upscale growth on consolidating cold pools to generate a broader strong to severe wind gust threat into Thursday evening.

..Kerr.. 07/08/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Friday, July 10

Outlook Summary

Clusters of thunderstorms accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts may evolve in a corridor across parts of the central Great Plains into Tennessee Valley Friday afternoon and evening.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 080712

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A CORRIDOR EAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS…OZARK PLATEAU…AND TENNESSEE VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Clusters of thunderstorms accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts may evolve in a corridor across parts of the central Great Plains into Tennessee Valley Friday afternoon and evening.

Discussion

To the southeast of a significant digging trough offshore of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast, models continue to indicate that an increasingly prominent mid/upper-level high may begin to form across portions of the Colorado Valley/Plateau through southern Rockies vicinity. Ridging is also forecast to continue building along an axis northward through the northern U.S. Great Plains and eastern Canadian Prairies Friday through Friday night, while positively tilted larger-scale downstream troughing gradually shifts into and across the northern Atlantic Seaboard.

The evolution of weak remnant troughing across the lower Missouri Valley and central Great Plains remains much more unclear. However, guidance generally suggests that a belt of convectively augmented mid-level flow will linger across southern portions of the central Great Plains through Tennessee Valley, and perhaps through southern Mid Atlantic coastal areas.

The potential for at least moderate destabilization appears most certain along the southern periphery of this regime, aided by a corridor of steeper lower through mid-tropospheric lapse rates associated with elevated mixed-layer air (probably based closer to 850 mb than 700 mb), above a seasonably moist boundary-layer. Focused in zones of strengthening differential heating across a remnant outflow boundary, or boundaries, the environment might become conducive to the evolution of at least small organizing clusters with potential to produce strong to severe surface gusts Friday afternoon and evening.

..Kerr.. 07/08/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Saturday, July 11

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Saturday, July 11 predictability too low
Day 5 Sunday, July 12 predictability too low
Day 6 Monday, July 13 predictability too low
Day 7 Tuesday, July 14 predictability too low
Day 8 Wednesday, July 15 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080848 SPC AC 080848

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

DISCUSSION

There remains a general consensus in medium-range guidance that a prominent mid-level high will build further while developing across and northeast of the Colorado Plateau through the middle Missouri Valley this coming weekend into early next week, within elongating larger scale ridging. A bit more uncertainty lingers concerning the evolution of larger-scale troughing and embedded short wavelength developments to the northeast and east of this feature into the early to middle portion of next week, but it still appears that this ridging may eventually become suppressed across the Great Lakes region.

As a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air advects along the southern fringe of strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of the mid/upper ridge, it may contribute to an environment conducive to the initiation and evolution of organizing thunderstorm clusters with potential to produce swaths of damaging surface gusts. Based on latest guidance, this may tend to initially remain north of the international border from the Great Plains through the upper Great Lakes. However, due to spread within and among the various model output, it remains unclear whether this activity will pose a greater potential impact to portions of New England or the lower Great Lakes into northern Mid Atlantic by next Tuesday or Wednesday.

..Kerr.. 07/08/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Sunday, July 12

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Saturday, July 11 predictability too low
Day 5 Sunday, July 12 predictability too low
Day 6 Monday, July 13 predictability too low
Day 7 Tuesday, July 14 predictability too low
Day 8 Wednesday, July 15 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080848 SPC AC 080848

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

DISCUSSION

There remains a general consensus in medium-range guidance that a prominent mid-level high will build further while developing across and northeast of the Colorado Plateau through the middle Missouri Valley this coming weekend into early next week, within elongating larger scale ridging. A bit more uncertainty lingers concerning the evolution of larger-scale troughing and embedded short wavelength developments to the northeast and east of this feature into the early to middle portion of next week, but it still appears that this ridging may eventually become suppressed across the Great Lakes region.

As a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air advects along the southern fringe of strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of the mid/upper ridge, it may contribute to an environment conducive to the initiation and evolution of organizing thunderstorm clusters with potential to produce swaths of damaging surface gusts. Based on latest guidance, this may tend to initially remain north of the international border from the Great Plains through the upper Great Lakes. However, due to spread within and among the various model output, it remains unclear whether this activity will pose a greater potential impact to portions of New England or the lower Great Lakes into northern Mid Atlantic by next Tuesday or Wednesday.

..Kerr.. 07/08/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Monday, July 13

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Saturday, July 11 predictability too low
Day 5 Sunday, July 12 predictability too low
Day 6 Monday, July 13 predictability too low
Day 7 Tuesday, July 14 predictability too low
Day 8 Wednesday, July 15 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080848 SPC AC 080848

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

DISCUSSION

There remains a general consensus in medium-range guidance that a prominent mid-level high will build further while developing across and northeast of the Colorado Plateau through the middle Missouri Valley this coming weekend into early next week, within elongating larger scale ridging. A bit more uncertainty lingers concerning the evolution of larger-scale troughing and embedded short wavelength developments to the northeast and east of this feature into the early to middle portion of next week, but it still appears that this ridging may eventually become suppressed across the Great Lakes region.

As a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air advects along the southern fringe of strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of the mid/upper ridge, it may contribute to an environment conducive to the initiation and evolution of organizing thunderstorm clusters with potential to produce swaths of damaging surface gusts. Based on latest guidance, this may tend to initially remain north of the international border from the Great Plains through the upper Great Lakes. However, due to spread within and among the various model output, it remains unclear whether this activity will pose a greater potential impact to portions of New England or the lower Great Lakes into northern Mid Atlantic by next Tuesday or Wednesday.

..Kerr.. 07/08/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Tuesday, July 14

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Saturday, July 11 predictability too low
Day 5 Sunday, July 12 predictability too low
Day 6 Monday, July 13 predictability too low
Day 7 Tuesday, July 14 predictability too low
Day 8 Wednesday, July 15 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080848 SPC AC 080848

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

DISCUSSION

There remains a general consensus in medium-range guidance that a prominent mid-level high will build further while developing across and northeast of the Colorado Plateau through the middle Missouri Valley this coming weekend into early next week, within elongating larger scale ridging. A bit more uncertainty lingers concerning the evolution of larger-scale troughing and embedded short wavelength developments to the northeast and east of this feature into the early to middle portion of next week, but it still appears that this ridging may eventually become suppressed across the Great Lakes region.

As a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air advects along the southern fringe of strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of the mid/upper ridge, it may contribute to an environment conducive to the initiation and evolution of organizing thunderstorm clusters with potential to produce swaths of damaging surface gusts. Based on latest guidance, this may tend to initially remain north of the international border from the Great Plains through the upper Great Lakes. However, due to spread within and among the various model output, it remains unclear whether this activity will pose a greater potential impact to portions of New England or the lower Great Lakes into northern Mid Atlantic by next Tuesday or Wednesday.

..Kerr.. 07/08/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Wednesday, July 15

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Saturday, July 11 predictability too low
Day 5 Sunday, July 12 predictability too low
Day 6 Monday, July 13 predictability too low
Day 7 Tuesday, July 14 predictability too low
Day 8 Wednesday, July 15 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080848 SPC AC 080848

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

DISCUSSION

There remains a general consensus in medium-range guidance that a prominent mid-level high will build further while developing across and northeast of the Colorado Plateau through the middle Missouri Valley this coming weekend into early next week, within elongating larger scale ridging. A bit more uncertainty lingers concerning the evolution of larger-scale troughing and embedded short wavelength developments to the northeast and east of this feature into the early to middle portion of next week, but it still appears that this ridging may eventually become suppressed across the Great Lakes region.

As a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air advects along the southern fringe of strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of the mid/upper ridge, it may contribute to an environment conducive to the initiation and evolution of organizing thunderstorm clusters with potential to produce swaths of damaging surface gusts. Based on latest guidance, this may tend to initially remain north of the international border from the Great Plains through the upper Great Lakes. However, due to spread within and among the various model output, it remains unclear whether this activity will pose a greater potential impact to portions of New England or the lower Great Lakes into northern Mid Atlantic by next Tuesday or Wednesday.

..Kerr.. 07/08/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, July 8
TORNADO: 2%
HAIL: 5%
WIND: 30%
Thursday, July 9
TORNADO: low
HAIL: 15%
WIND: 15%
Friday, July 10
ANY SEVERE: 5%
Saturday, July 11
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, July 12
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, July 13
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, July 14
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, July 15
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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