Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, April 10
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the south-central Plains into the Ozarks. Strong to locally severe storms may also occur from northern Nevada into southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho, and also across parts of central California.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 100553
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS…NORTHERN NV INTO SOUTHEAST OR/SOUTHWEST ID…AND PARTS OF CENTRAL CA
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the south-central Plains into the Ozarks. Strong to locally severe storms may also occur from northern Nevada into southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho, and also across parts of central California.
Synopsis
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move from the Great Lakes region toward New England through the period. Upstream, a mid/upper low initially offshore of California will move inland toward the Great Basin as a shortwave trough, as another mid/upper shortwave/low approaches the Pacific Coast.
Parts of the south-central Plains into the Ozarks
In the wake of morning elevated convection, an outflow-reinforced cold front is expected to become nearly stationary this afternoon and early evening. Steep midlevel lapse rates and rather cool temperatures aloft will support MLCAPE of near/above 1500 J/kg along/south of the front, with minimal MLCINH by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by late afternoon in the vicinity of the boundary across parts of southern KS/northern OK into the Ozarks, with additional development possible near the front and within a post-frontal regime across the south-central High Plains vicinity.
With rather modest large-scale ascent and weak deep-layer flow forecast across the region, storm organization and duration may generally remain somewhat limited. However, more organized cells may briefly develop on an isolated basis near the boundary, where some enhancement to effective shear/SRH will be possible. Isolated large hail appears to be the most likely hazard, though localized strong/damaging gusts also cannot be ruled out with the strongest storms.
Northern NV into southeast OR/southwest ID and central/northern CA
In response to the approaching mid/upper low and shortwave trough, scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across parts of central/northern CA into the northern Great Basin and interior Northwest. Cold temperatures aloft and rather strong diurnal heating will result in steep low/midlevel lapse rates and MUCAPE increasing to near/above 500 J/kg, despite limited low-level moisture.
Midlevel flow and deep-layer shear will gradually increase with time, with the most favorable overlap of shear and instability currently expected from northern NV into southeast OR/southwest ID. Modestly organized cells/clusters and perhaps a couple of supercells may develop in this area, with an attendant threat of hail and localized severe gusts.
A few strong storms may also develop across parts of the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys in California. While deep-layer shear will be somewhat less favorable compared to the northern Great Basin area, cold temperatures aloft (near/below -20C at 500 mb) may support potential for marginally severe hail with the strongest storms. Local terrain influences could also support transient cell organization/rotation and possibly a brief tornado, though this potential remains very uncertain at this time.
..Dean/Chalmers.. 04/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Saturday, April 11
Outlook Summary
Scattered thunderstorms producing hail and strong wind gusts will be possible across portions of the central and southern Plains on Saturday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 100521
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS
### SUMMARY
Scattered thunderstorms producing hail and strong wind gusts will be possible across portions of the central and southern Plains on Saturday.
Southern/Central Plains
Upper ridging will be in place over the central U.S. early Saturday. A weak upper shortwave trough over the Great Basin will migrate northeast through the period, along with several other lead shortwave impulses ahead of a larger-scale western trough/upper low near the Pacific coast. This will result in deamplification of the upper ridge. Modest deep-layer southwesterly flow around 20-40 kt will overspread much of the Plains. At the surface, low pressure will deepen over Montana and eventually develop east across the northern Plains late in the period, while lee troughing extends southward across the High Plains. Increasing south/southeasterly low-level flow will transport 50s and low 60s F dewpoints northward toward the Mid-MO Valley, and westward toward western KS/OK/TX.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of the surface trough across eastern NM/western TX during the afternoon as modest large-scale ascent overspreads the region. Cloud cover will limit daytime heating, but steepening lapse rates and modestly increasing boundary-layer moisture will support MLCAPE to around 1000-1500 J/kg. Vertical shear will be weak but sufficient for at least transient organized cells capable of producing large hail. As a low-level jet increases during the evening, some consolidation of updrafts could occur and linear segments/small bows could produce locally strong wind gusts.
Further north, a more conditional risk is expected across the central Plains. A warm front will lift northward across KS/NE during the afternoon and into early evening. Forecast soundings indicate capping will likely preclude much convective development within the warm sector. However, if any cells are able to develop and become sustained near the warm front, a severe risk will be possible. This scenario is uncertain, and will maintain Level 1 of 5/Marginal risk. Additionally cells are possible during the evening across parts of eastern CO/western KS/western NE near the surface trough. Locally strong gusts and hail will be possible with these storms.
Central CA
Low-topped thunderstorms are possible in the north-central Valley vicinity during the afternoon/evening as cooling aloft and increasing ascent overspread the region ahead of an upper low over the eastern Pacific. Instability is expected to remain weak (less than 400 J/kg MLCAPE), but small hail and gusty winds may briefly occur with stronger cells. As the upper low and a surface cold front approach the central coast overnight, a line of low-topped convection could bring gusty winds as well. Severe storms are not expected at this time.
Great Basin vicinity
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and evening as a compact upper shortwave trough moves over the region. Cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and MLCAPE generally less than 500 J/kg. However, a well mixed boundary layer with inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles and around 30 kt southwesterly flow through 600 mb could support locally gusty winds. Overall, severe potential appears limited.
..Leitman.. 04/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Sunday, April 12
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern and central Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 100711
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANSAS…OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern and central Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday.
Central/Southern Plains to the Upper Midwest
An upper trough will slowly pivot east across the western U.S. on Sunday. Low-amplitude, broad southwesterly flow will persist downstream of the western trough across much of the rest of the U.S. A weak upper shortwave trough is forecast to move across the Upper Midwest through midday before weakening over the Great Lakes during the afternoon. At the surface, weak troughing will extend from MN into NE and southward across western KS/OK/TX. Low 60s F dewpoints will be in place east of the surface trough from TX into IA/IL/WI.
Quite a bit of uncertainty exists for the Day 3 period and forecast confidence is fairly low. Precipitation will likely be ongoing across portions of OK/TX, and possibly northward into KS and the Upper Midwest as a continuation of Day 2 overnight storms and persistent warm advection. A weak shortwave impulse over the southern Plains Sunday morning will quickly shift northeast through midday. It is unclear how this may impact destabilization later in the day. In the wake of the morning shortwave, large-scale ascent will remain nebulous. Furthermore, the upper shortwave trough moving across the northern Plains to the Upper Midwest may be ill-timed with peak heating, and may lead to subsidence across the region during the afternoon in the wake of this feature.
Nevertheless, some severe risk, albeit conditional, will be possible across portions of the central/southern Plains, likely focused along the surface trough/dryline from central KS into western OK and portions of western/north TX. Supercell vertical wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings, with weak capping noted just above 850 mb. Steep lapse rates above this layer will be supported by cool temperatures aloft, and MLCAPE values could climb to near 2000 J/kg. Storm coverage is uncertain, but if storms can develop and become sustained, all severe hazards will be possible.
A conditional supercell environment will also exist across the Upper Midwest ahead of a surface low, though severe risk will depend on timing of the aforementioned upper shortwave trough. Given uncertainty, will introduce low severe probabilities (level 1 of 5) and trends will be monitored.
..Leitman.. 04/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Monday, April 13
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, April 13 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, April 14 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, April 15 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Thursday, April 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, April 17 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100828 SPC AC 100828
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-6/Mon-Wed – Central/Southern Plains to the Midwest
There is quite a bit of uncertainty regarding severe potential/evolution during the Monday-Wednesday period. An upper trough will slowly pivot across the West on Monday, and emerge over the central/southern Rockies by early Wednesday before finally ejecting across the Plains and toward the Mid/Upper MS Valley on Wednesday. During this time, broad southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley.
On Monday, a surface low will develop over the northern/central Plains, with a dryline extending southward across KS/OK/TX and a warm front extending across southern MN/WI. Several lead shortwave impulses will move across the Plains, though height tendencies will remain mostly neutral. Nevertheless, cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and increasing boundary layer moisture (surface dewpoints in the low/mid 60s F) will support moderate to strong destabilization. During the evening, a southwesterly low-level jet will increase across the Plains, overspreading the surface dryline. Vertically veering wind profiles and 30-40 kt effective shear magnitudes would support supercells capable of all hazards, though storm coverage remains uncertain.
By Tuesday, the GFS becomes more progressive with the western trough, ejecting it into the Plains by early Wednesday, whereas the ECMWF hangs the trough back west and is slower. Nevertheless, a similar airmass will be in place across the warm sector east of a dryline across the Plains and to the south of a warm front draped across the Great Lakes. Isolated convection may develop along the dryline across the Plains, posing a supercell/all-hazards risk. Higher storm coverage appears more likely across portions of the Mid/Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes vicinity closer to a surface low.
On Wednesday, the upper trough should progress from the Plains to the Great Lakes while weakening some. A surface cold front will develop southeast across portions of the central U.S. and some severe risk should persist along/ahead of this boundary. How convection evolves on Tuesday into Wednesday will impact where the greatest severe risk will develop, but at least some risk should exist from portions of the southern Plains to the Mid-MS Valley.
Days 7-8/Thu-Fri
Predictability is low heading into the end of the forecast period on Thursday and Friday as large spread exists among medium range guidance. However, western U.S. upper troughing may persist, suggesting some severe thunderstorm potential could persist for parts of the Plains late in the work week.
..Leitman.. 04/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, April 14
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, April 13 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, April 14 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, April 15 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Thursday, April 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, April 17 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100828 SPC AC 100828
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-6/Mon-Wed – Central/Southern Plains to the Midwest
There is quite a bit of uncertainty regarding severe potential/evolution during the Monday-Wednesday period. An upper trough will slowly pivot across the West on Monday, and emerge over the central/southern Rockies by early Wednesday before finally ejecting across the Plains and toward the Mid/Upper MS Valley on Wednesday. During this time, broad southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley.
On Monday, a surface low will develop over the northern/central Plains, with a dryline extending southward across KS/OK/TX and a warm front extending across southern MN/WI. Several lead shortwave impulses will move across the Plains, though height tendencies will remain mostly neutral. Nevertheless, cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and increasing boundary layer moisture (surface dewpoints in the low/mid 60s F) will support moderate to strong destabilization. During the evening, a southwesterly low-level jet will increase across the Plains, overspreading the surface dryline. Vertically veering wind profiles and 30-40 kt effective shear magnitudes would support supercells capable of all hazards, though storm coverage remains uncertain.
By Tuesday, the GFS becomes more progressive with the western trough, ejecting it into the Plains by early Wednesday, whereas the ECMWF hangs the trough back west and is slower. Nevertheless, a similar airmass will be in place across the warm sector east of a dryline across the Plains and to the south of a warm front draped across the Great Lakes. Isolated convection may develop along the dryline across the Plains, posing a supercell/all-hazards risk. Higher storm coverage appears more likely across portions of the Mid/Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes vicinity closer to a surface low.
On Wednesday, the upper trough should progress from the Plains to the Great Lakes while weakening some. A surface cold front will develop southeast across portions of the central U.S. and some severe risk should persist along/ahead of this boundary. How convection evolves on Tuesday into Wednesday will impact where the greatest severe risk will develop, but at least some risk should exist from portions of the southern Plains to the Mid-MS Valley.
Days 7-8/Thu-Fri
Predictability is low heading into the end of the forecast period on Thursday and Friday as large spread exists among medium range guidance. However, western U.S. upper troughing may persist, suggesting some severe thunderstorm potential could persist for parts of the Plains late in the work week.
..Leitman.. 04/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, April 15
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, April 13 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, April 14 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, April 15 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Thursday, April 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, April 17 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100828 SPC AC 100828
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-6/Mon-Wed – Central/Southern Plains to the Midwest
There is quite a bit of uncertainty regarding severe potential/evolution during the Monday-Wednesday period. An upper trough will slowly pivot across the West on Monday, and emerge over the central/southern Rockies by early Wednesday before finally ejecting across the Plains and toward the Mid/Upper MS Valley on Wednesday. During this time, broad southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley.
On Monday, a surface low will develop over the northern/central Plains, with a dryline extending southward across KS/OK/TX and a warm front extending across southern MN/WI. Several lead shortwave impulses will move across the Plains, though height tendencies will remain mostly neutral. Nevertheless, cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and increasing boundary layer moisture (surface dewpoints in the low/mid 60s F) will support moderate to strong destabilization. During the evening, a southwesterly low-level jet will increase across the Plains, overspreading the surface dryline. Vertically veering wind profiles and 30-40 kt effective shear magnitudes would support supercells capable of all hazards, though storm coverage remains uncertain.
By Tuesday, the GFS becomes more progressive with the western trough, ejecting it into the Plains by early Wednesday, whereas the ECMWF hangs the trough back west and is slower. Nevertheless, a similar airmass will be in place across the warm sector east of a dryline across the Plains and to the south of a warm front draped across the Great Lakes. Isolated convection may develop along the dryline across the Plains, posing a supercell/all-hazards risk. Higher storm coverage appears more likely across portions of the Mid/Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes vicinity closer to a surface low.
On Wednesday, the upper trough should progress from the Plains to the Great Lakes while weakening some. A surface cold front will develop southeast across portions of the central U.S. and some severe risk should persist along/ahead of this boundary. How convection evolves on Tuesday into Wednesday will impact where the greatest severe risk will develop, but at least some risk should exist from portions of the southern Plains to the Mid-MS Valley.
Days 7-8/Thu-Fri
Predictability is low heading into the end of the forecast period on Thursday and Friday as large spread exists among medium range guidance. However, western U.S. upper troughing may persist, suggesting some severe thunderstorm potential could persist for parts of the Plains late in the work week.
..Leitman.. 04/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, April 16
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, April 13 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, April 14 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, April 15 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Thursday, April 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, April 17 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100828 SPC AC 100828
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-6/Mon-Wed – Central/Southern Plains to the Midwest
There is quite a bit of uncertainty regarding severe potential/evolution during the Monday-Wednesday period. An upper trough will slowly pivot across the West on Monday, and emerge over the central/southern Rockies by early Wednesday before finally ejecting across the Plains and toward the Mid/Upper MS Valley on Wednesday. During this time, broad southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley.
On Monday, a surface low will develop over the northern/central Plains, with a dryline extending southward across KS/OK/TX and a warm front extending across southern MN/WI. Several lead shortwave impulses will move across the Plains, though height tendencies will remain mostly neutral. Nevertheless, cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and increasing boundary layer moisture (surface dewpoints in the low/mid 60s F) will support moderate to strong destabilization. During the evening, a southwesterly low-level jet will increase across the Plains, overspreading the surface dryline. Vertically veering wind profiles and 30-40 kt effective shear magnitudes would support supercells capable of all hazards, though storm coverage remains uncertain.
By Tuesday, the GFS becomes more progressive with the western trough, ejecting it into the Plains by early Wednesday, whereas the ECMWF hangs the trough back west and is slower. Nevertheless, a similar airmass will be in place across the warm sector east of a dryline across the Plains and to the south of a warm front draped across the Great Lakes. Isolated convection may develop along the dryline across the Plains, posing a supercell/all-hazards risk. Higher storm coverage appears more likely across portions of the Mid/Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes vicinity closer to a surface low.
On Wednesday, the upper trough should progress from the Plains to the Great Lakes while weakening some. A surface cold front will develop southeast across portions of the central U.S. and some severe risk should persist along/ahead of this boundary. How convection evolves on Tuesday into Wednesday will impact where the greatest severe risk will develop, but at least some risk should exist from portions of the southern Plains to the Mid-MS Valley.
Days 7-8/Thu-Fri
Predictability is low heading into the end of the forecast period on Thursday and Friday as large spread exists among medium range guidance. However, western U.S. upper troughing may persist, suggesting some severe thunderstorm potential could persist for parts of the Plains late in the work week.
..Leitman.. 04/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, April 17
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, April 13 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, April 14 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, April 15 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Thursday, April 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, April 17 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100828 SPC AC 100828
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-6/Mon-Wed – Central/Southern Plains to the Midwest
There is quite a bit of uncertainty regarding severe potential/evolution during the Monday-Wednesday period. An upper trough will slowly pivot across the West on Monday, and emerge over the central/southern Rockies by early Wednesday before finally ejecting across the Plains and toward the Mid/Upper MS Valley on Wednesday. During this time, broad southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley.
On Monday, a surface low will develop over the northern/central Plains, with a dryline extending southward across KS/OK/TX and a warm front extending across southern MN/WI. Several lead shortwave impulses will move across the Plains, though height tendencies will remain mostly neutral. Nevertheless, cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and increasing boundary layer moisture (surface dewpoints in the low/mid 60s F) will support moderate to strong destabilization. During the evening, a southwesterly low-level jet will increase across the Plains, overspreading the surface dryline. Vertically veering wind profiles and 30-40 kt effective shear magnitudes would support supercells capable of all hazards, though storm coverage remains uncertain.
By Tuesday, the GFS becomes more progressive with the western trough, ejecting it into the Plains by early Wednesday, whereas the ECMWF hangs the trough back west and is slower. Nevertheless, a similar airmass will be in place across the warm sector east of a dryline across the Plains and to the south of a warm front draped across the Great Lakes. Isolated convection may develop along the dryline across the Plains, posing a supercell/all-hazards risk. Higher storm coverage appears more likely across portions of the Mid/Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes vicinity closer to a surface low.
On Wednesday, the upper trough should progress from the Plains to the Great Lakes while weakening some. A surface cold front will develop southeast across portions of the central U.S. and some severe risk should persist along/ahead of this boundary. How convection evolves on Tuesday into Wednesday will impact where the greatest severe risk will develop, but at least some risk should exist from portions of the southern Plains to the Mid-MS Valley.
Days 7-8/Thu-Fri
Predictability is low heading into the end of the forecast period on Thursday and Friday as large spread exists among medium range guidance. However, western U.S. upper troughing may persist, suggesting some severe thunderstorm potential could persist for parts of the Plains late in the work week.
..Leitman.. 04/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, April 10
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Saturday, April 11
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Sunday, April 12
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Monday, April 13
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Tuesday, April 14
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Wednesday, April 15
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Thursday, April 16
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, April 17
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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