Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Monday, June 8

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms potentially capable of large to giant hail and a couple of tornadoes are still possible over the plains of eastern Colorado. Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are expected farther east over northern Kansas late this afternoon through the late evening. Very large to giant hail and severe gusts ranging from 60-100 mph are possible along with a risk for a couple of tornadoes.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 081957

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026

Valid 082000Z - 091200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms potentially capable of large to giant hail and a couple of tornadoes are still possible over the plains of eastern Colorado. Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are expected farther east over northern Kansas late this afternoon through the late evening. Very large to giant hail and severe gusts ranging from 60-100 mph are possible along with a risk for a couple of tornadoes.

20Z Update

Hail conditional intensity level 2, and tornado conditional intensity level 1 were added to portions of northern into central KS. Some of the latest high-resolution guidance depicts supercells potentially remaining discrete or semi-discrete for a couple more hours longer compared to earlier CAM runs. Given anticipated strong low-level shear along the terminus of the low-level jet/baroclinic boundary intersection, and over 40 kts of effective bulk shear likely, any supercells that remain discrete could become quite intense given strong to locally extreme buoyancy. Very large hail approaching 4 inches in diameter may occur with longer-lived supercells. Furthermore, RAP forecast soundings show appreciably large and curved low-level hodographs this evening (given low-level jet intensification). As such, a strong tornado cannot be ruled out, either with discrete supercells or with a well-defined mesovortex as storms merge into an intense cold-pool-driven bow echo MCS later this evening.

A Category 4/Moderate risk was considered for this outlook. However, it remains unclear whether supercells will rapidly grow upscale into a bow echo, or maintain discrete structures for a longer period of time. It therefore remains questionable whether significant-severe hail or wind will dominate long enough to warrant Moderate risk coverage of a specific hazard. Nonetheless, very intense and damaging storms capable of a combination of all significant-severe hazards are expected across portions of northern into eastern KS this afternoon into the evening hours.

Otherwise, the rest of the previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only minor changes made to thunder and severe probabilities to reflect the latest observations and guidance consensus.

..Squitieri.. 06/08/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1152 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026/

Eastern CO into Western NE/KS

A belt of moderate southwesterly mid-level flow will be maintained over the central High Plains to the downstream of a western U.S. upper trough. A surface low near Dodge City, KS and moist easterly low-level flow to its north, will contribute to upslope flow into eastern CO and the CO Front Range. Strong heating and 50s to lower 60s deg F dewpoints and steep 700-500 mb lapse rates will result in moderate to large buoyancy by mid afternoon. Elongated hodographs will favor supercells with the more intense updrafts. Some increase in low-level hodographs towards early evening coupled with a moist boundary layer may aid in the risk for supercell tornadoes, in addition to the risk for hail. Some of the latest model forecast soundings suggest giant hail (3.0-4.5 inches in diameter) with the more intense supercells over eastern CO late this afternoon into the early evening. Severe gusts will also be possible with the stronger storms with this activity diminishing by late evening.

KS vicinity

A very moist surface was analyzed this morning across the central Great Plains to the south of a front across central and northern KS to the east of a triple point. Model guidance shows lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratios of 16-18 g/kg later this afternoon. This very rich moisture coupled with heating to the south of the front and early day outflow from storm activity over southwest NE, will result in a very unstable airmass by late afternoon. Model guidance has trended towards a severe MCS developing across northern KS and moving east-southeastward into the lower MO Valley by late evening. Although it remains unclear exactly how this will evolve, confidence has increased with regard to a storm cluster and upscale growth occurring on the northern rim of very rich moisture and a modest southerly LLJ. Some indication exists for a couple of supercells to develop ahead of the evolving cluster and eventual squall line. Large hail and perhaps a tornado risk could accompany this activity. Have increased severe-wind probabilities and intensity levels, with the most intense phase of the squall line likely where the overlap of greater effective shear (30-35 kt) and the large buoyancy resides. A bow potentially capable of a swath of 60-80 mph gusts (locally peaking 80-100 mph) is forecast, along with the possibility for a couple of mesovortices capable of these locally higher gusts and/or tornadoes. A gradual weakening is expected as this MCS moves into western parts of MO late.

Southern KS/Northwest OK

A dryline will become established this afternoon from the eastern TX Panhandle into south-central KS. Hot conditions along/west of the dryline will help to initiate isolated thunderstorms. These high-based supercells could pose an occasional threat of hail and damaging winds for a few hours.

Southern IL/Western KY

An upper trough continues to lift northeastward across the mid MS valley today, with a moist/moderately unstable air mass present from southern IL southward. Mid-level lapse rates are marginal for severe storms, and winds aloft are modest. Nevertheless, veering winds-with-height and sufficient CAPE will pose an occasional risk of strong storms capable of gusty winds or a tornado today.

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Outlook for Tuesday, June 9

Outlook Summary

Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely to develop across parts of the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley Tuesday afternoon into night. Very large hail, tornadoes, a few of which could be strong, and damaging winds with significant gusts appear likely.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 081736

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA

### SUMMARY

Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely to develop across parts of the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley Tuesday afternoon into night. Very large hail, tornadoes, a few of which could be strong, and damaging winds with significant gusts appear likely.

Synopsis

A negatively tilted upper trough will be oriented from the Pacific Northwest to the southern Great Basin Tuesday morning. This feature will pivot east through the period, become positioned from southwest Saskatchewan to the central High Plains. A belt of enhanced southwesterly 500 mb flow will overspread portions of the northern/central Plains ahead of the aforementioned trough. Meanwhile, an intensifying low-level jet will develop during the evening/overnight hours across much of the Plains toward the Upper Midwest.

At the surface, low pressure over eastern MT will gradually deepen and shift east/northeast across the northern Plains and adjacent Canadian Prairies. A Pacific front/dryline feature will extend southward from the low across the western Dakotas and NE. A secondary surface low may develop in the vicinity of eastern CO/western KS/southwest NE, where a dryline will extend from western KS southward into northwest OK and the TX Panhandle. Further east, a quasi-warm front feature is expected to extend northwest to southeast from MN to the Mid-MS Valley. This boundary may gradually lift northward through the evening/overnight in response to the low/midlevel mass response/increasing low-level jet.

These boundaries will be a focus for severe storm development during the afternoon into the overnight hours.

Northern Plains vicinity

Convection is expected to develop near the ND/MT border vicinity by mid/late afternoon along the surface boundary. A warm front should be well north of the Dakotas over the southern Canadian Prairies, and increasing southerly low-level flow will transport low to mid 60s F dewpoints northward into the region. Cooling aloft will result in steepening midlevel lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer moisture, supporting MLCAPE increasing to 3000-4000 J/kg. South/southwesterly low-level winds will become southwesterly in the mid/upper levels, resulting in supercell wind profiles and 40+ kt effective shear magnitudes. Initial supercell storms are expected, though these storms may be somewhat higher-based within the more modest boundary layer moisture across the western Dakotas/far eastern MT. Large hail and damaging gusts are possible with these storms initially.

As convection develops eastward into the axis of greater low-level moisture and strong instability, severe potential will increase, particularly with respect to swaths of damaging winds and tornadoes. As the low-level jet increases during the evening, and given mid/upper flow oriented parallel to the surface boundary, upscale growth into one or more linear segments is expected. As cold pool consolidation occurs, potential for significant wind gusts (greater than 65 kt) is expected to increase across parts of central ND. Low-level shear will also support tornado potential, whether semi-discrete supercells can be maintained, or with mesovortex generation within linear bands. As such, have left tornado probabilities similar to the prior forecast. Given the expectation that storm mode will become more linear with time, hail probabilities have been lowered (removed 45 percent). Nevertheless, large to very large hail will be possible with any discrete supercells that can be maintained or are embedded within linear segments.

NE/SD/Mid-MO Valley vicinity

Convection emanating northeast from NE may eventually grow upscale into an MCS during the nighttime hours and spread into eastern SD and the Mid-MO Valley area. This scenario is uncertain. However, given ample deep-layer flow, extreme instability and at least subtle large-scale ascent over the region as the low-level jet overspreads this area overnight, this scenario seems plausible. If this occurs, damaging wind potential will be possible, and severe probabilities have been expanded eastward across portions of the region.

KS into the OK/TX Panhandles and northeast NM

High-based convection is expected to develop along the surface dryline during the late afternoon. Deep boundary layer mixing will support steep low-level lapse rates. 500 mb temperatures around -10 C also will support steep midlevel lapse rates near 8-8.5 C/km per regional forecast soundings. Deep layer shear will not be as strong as further north, but strong instability and inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles will support severe wind gusts. There is some potential that if storms can be maintained further east toward better low-level moisture as the low-level jet increases during the evening, a swath of significant wind gusts could occur across the southwest KS vicinity. Severe probabilities have been increased across portions of the area given a favorable environment and strong signal within most forecast guidance.

Mid-MS Valley into Lower OH Valley

A quasi-warm front/moisture boundary will overlap the region from northwest to southeast, and is likely to lift northward toward Lake MI overnight. Large-scale ascent will remain weak until late in the period. Nevertheless, strong instability within a very moist and unstable airmass will support isolated severe wind gusts potential through peak heating with any storms that develop. Additional storms may develop overnight from WI into northern IL as the low-level jet noses into the region resulting in strong warm advection atop the surface boundary. While this activity may remain elevated above the nocturnal stable layer, some potential for strong gusts or marginal hail is possible.

..Leitman.. 06/08/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, June 10

Outlook Summary

Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail, tornadoes, and damaging winds with significant gusts appear likely across portions of the upper Mississippi Valley and Midwest Wednesday afternoon into night. More sporadic occurrences of large hail and damaging winds are possible into the central Plains.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 081921

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN MINNESOTA…WISCONSIN…EASTERN IOWA…AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS

### SUMMARY

Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail, tornadoes, and damaging winds with significant gusts appear likely across portions of the upper Mississippi Valley and Midwest Wednesday afternoon into night. More sporadic occurrences of large hail and damaging winds are possible into the central Plains.

Synopsis

An upper low is forecast over southern Alberta/Saskatchewan and northern MT Wednesday morning. One upper shortwave trough associated with this system will be oriented over the northern High Plains Wednesday morning, and will spread eastward through the period into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity. A second upper shortwave trough will deepen and develop southeast from the northern Rockies to the central High Plains by Thursday morning.

At the surface, a cold front will initially be located from eastern ND toward the central High Plains. The northern portion of this front will develop east across the Upper Midwest, while the southwestern extension of the front stalls from the Mid-MO Valley into the southern High Plains as a surface low deepens over NE/KS overnight.

Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes toward the Mid/Lower MO Valley vicinity

Remnant convection from the Day 2/Tuesday period may be ongoing/decaying across parts of the region Wednesday morning. Furthermore, convective outflow could be positioned somewhere across the Upper Midwest. As a result, evolution of convection from the Day 2 period will likely have some impact on where corridors of greater severe potential develop on Wednesday. Regardless, rich boundary layer moisture will spread across parts of MN/WI/IA/IL as a warm front retreats northward across the Great Lakes and ahead of the advancing surface cold front. This will foster strong destabilization across the region as vertical shear increases with time. Numerous organized severe thunderstorms, possibly both supercells and bowing segments, are expected with an accompany all-hazards severe risk, particularly across parts of MN/WI and possibly IA into northern IL.

With southwest extent into the Mid/Lower MO Valley, effective shear magnitudes will decrease. However, a very moist and strongly unstable airmass will be in place ahead of the stalled surface boundary across KS to western IA. A dryline will also extend into the southern High Plains, though boundary layer moisture will also become more modest with southwest extent. Both of these boundaries will serve as a focus for a second area of severe thunderstorm potential during the late afternoon/evening, with both large hail and damaging gusts possible. Additional severe thunderstorms may develop overnight as a low-level jet strengthens and overspreads the stalled surface boundary across KS. Large hail could accompany this activity later in the forecast period.

..Leitman.. 06/08/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Thursday, June 11

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080845 SPC AC 080845

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Thursday

An active period of severe weather is expected from the upper Great Lakes into Ozark Plateau, with the most concentrated and potentially most significant severe storms affecting parts of the Midwest.

Within the base of an upper low centered over Manitoba and northwest Ontario, the models are in good agreement in depicting the progression of a potent short-wave trough and attending mid/upper-level jet streaks through the upper Midwest and upper Great Lakes. There is some model signal that a trailing perturbation on the immediate cyclonic side of the mid-level jet will overspread the mid MS Valley Thursday night.

At the surface, a deepening surface low/frontal wave is expected to develop from central IA into the southern UP of MI during the day, along a cold front advancing through the upper Midwest and into the upper Great Lakes. The southwest extension of that boundary will progress southeast through the lower MO and Mid MS Valleys, while becoming quasi-stationary across the southern Plains. The specific boundary location across the Midwest may be modified to some extent from a thunderstorm complex moving through the area Wednesday night/early Thursday.

A very moist air mass is expected to reside to the south of the surface front, which coupled with modestly steep mid-level lapse rates is expected to yield moderate to strong instability. The presence of a 50-70 kt mid-level jet streak attending the short-wave trough will result in relatively strong deep-layer shear along the frontal zone, with vector orientation becoming increasingly parallel to the boundary with southward extent. The overall pattern appears supportive of an organized severe-weather episode from the upper Great Lakes into mid MS Valley. There is some model signal that a corridor of enhanced tornado potential could develop along and south of the surface low track from eastern IA and northern IL into central and southern WI. That potential scenario will be dictated by the location of the effective surface boundary.

Additional, more isolated severe storms appear possible across parts of the Northeast.

Day 5/Friday

A number of the 00z models progress a lower-latitude short-wave trough through the upper OH Valley and lower Great Lakes, which is a departure from previous model runs. That scenario would increase severe-weather potential across those areas into New England, and perhaps the Mid-Atlantic, given the potential for a moderately unstable air mass across the pre-frontal warm sector. Should subsequent model runs remain consistent with this recent trend, an unconditional 15% probability contour may be needed in the next forecast update.

Elsewhere, Isolated severe storms appear possible across portions of the southern High Plains.

### Day 6/Saturday

The ensemble mean solutions are in good agreement in depicting a mid/upper-level low over Hudson Bay with a belt of strong mid-level flow extending from slight troughing over the northern High Plains into the Great Lakes and Northeast. There is more spread across the deterministic models with respect to the longitudinal position of that trough, and the position of the associated frontal system. In general, it appears some severe weather threat could materialize across the central Plains. However, confidence in that scenario is low.

### Days 7 and 8/Sunday and Monday

The ensembles indicate a gradual amplification of the large-scale pattern, featuring troughing from Hudson Bay into the MS Valley, and upstream ridging across western Canada and the Pacific Northwest. The location of any relevant surface frontal systems remains highly uncertain, as does the location(s) of any severe-weather threat.

..Mead.. 06/08/2026

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Outlook for Friday, June 12

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080845 SPC AC 080845

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Thursday

An active period of severe weather is expected from the upper Great Lakes into Ozark Plateau, with the most concentrated and potentially most significant severe storms affecting parts of the Midwest.

Within the base of an upper low centered over Manitoba and northwest Ontario, the models are in good agreement in depicting the progression of a potent short-wave trough and attending mid/upper-level jet streaks through the upper Midwest and upper Great Lakes. There is some model signal that a trailing perturbation on the immediate cyclonic side of the mid-level jet will overspread the mid MS Valley Thursday night.

At the surface, a deepening surface low/frontal wave is expected to develop from central IA into the southern UP of MI during the day, along a cold front advancing through the upper Midwest and into the upper Great Lakes. The southwest extension of that boundary will progress southeast through the lower MO and Mid MS Valleys, while becoming quasi-stationary across the southern Plains. The specific boundary location across the Midwest may be modified to some extent from a thunderstorm complex moving through the area Wednesday night/early Thursday.

A very moist air mass is expected to reside to the south of the surface front, which coupled with modestly steep mid-level lapse rates is expected to yield moderate to strong instability. The presence of a 50-70 kt mid-level jet streak attending the short-wave trough will result in relatively strong deep-layer shear along the frontal zone, with vector orientation becoming increasingly parallel to the boundary with southward extent. The overall pattern appears supportive of an organized severe-weather episode from the upper Great Lakes into mid MS Valley. There is some model signal that a corridor of enhanced tornado potential could develop along and south of the surface low track from eastern IA and northern IL into central and southern WI. That potential scenario will be dictated by the location of the effective surface boundary.

Additional, more isolated severe storms appear possible across parts of the Northeast.

Day 5/Friday

A number of the 00z models progress a lower-latitude short-wave trough through the upper OH Valley and lower Great Lakes, which is a departure from previous model runs. That scenario would increase severe-weather potential across those areas into New England, and perhaps the Mid-Atlantic, given the potential for a moderately unstable air mass across the pre-frontal warm sector. Should subsequent model runs remain consistent with this recent trend, an unconditional 15% probability contour may be needed in the next forecast update.

Elsewhere, Isolated severe storms appear possible across portions of the southern High Plains.

### Day 6/Saturday

The ensemble mean solutions are in good agreement in depicting a mid/upper-level low over Hudson Bay with a belt of strong mid-level flow extending from slight troughing over the northern High Plains into the Great Lakes and Northeast. There is more spread across the deterministic models with respect to the longitudinal position of that trough, and the position of the associated frontal system. In general, it appears some severe weather threat could materialize across the central Plains. However, confidence in that scenario is low.

### Days 7 and 8/Sunday and Monday

The ensembles indicate a gradual amplification of the large-scale pattern, featuring troughing from Hudson Bay into the MS Valley, and upstream ridging across western Canada and the Pacific Northwest. The location of any relevant surface frontal systems remains highly uncertain, as does the location(s) of any severe-weather threat.

..Mead.. 06/08/2026

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Outlook for Saturday, June 13

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080845 SPC AC 080845

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Thursday

An active period of severe weather is expected from the upper Great Lakes into Ozark Plateau, with the most concentrated and potentially most significant severe storms affecting parts of the Midwest.

Within the base of an upper low centered over Manitoba and northwest Ontario, the models are in good agreement in depicting the progression of a potent short-wave trough and attending mid/upper-level jet streaks through the upper Midwest and upper Great Lakes. There is some model signal that a trailing perturbation on the immediate cyclonic side of the mid-level jet will overspread the mid MS Valley Thursday night.

At the surface, a deepening surface low/frontal wave is expected to develop from central IA into the southern UP of MI during the day, along a cold front advancing through the upper Midwest and into the upper Great Lakes. The southwest extension of that boundary will progress southeast through the lower MO and Mid MS Valleys, while becoming quasi-stationary across the southern Plains. The specific boundary location across the Midwest may be modified to some extent from a thunderstorm complex moving through the area Wednesday night/early Thursday.

A very moist air mass is expected to reside to the south of the surface front, which coupled with modestly steep mid-level lapse rates is expected to yield moderate to strong instability. The presence of a 50-70 kt mid-level jet streak attending the short-wave trough will result in relatively strong deep-layer shear along the frontal zone, with vector orientation becoming increasingly parallel to the boundary with southward extent. The overall pattern appears supportive of an organized severe-weather episode from the upper Great Lakes into mid MS Valley. There is some model signal that a corridor of enhanced tornado potential could develop along and south of the surface low track from eastern IA and northern IL into central and southern WI. That potential scenario will be dictated by the location of the effective surface boundary.

Additional, more isolated severe storms appear possible across parts of the Northeast.

Day 5/Friday

A number of the 00z models progress a lower-latitude short-wave trough through the upper OH Valley and lower Great Lakes, which is a departure from previous model runs. That scenario would increase severe-weather potential across those areas into New England, and perhaps the Mid-Atlantic, given the potential for a moderately unstable air mass across the pre-frontal warm sector. Should subsequent model runs remain consistent with this recent trend, an unconditional 15% probability contour may be needed in the next forecast update.

Elsewhere, Isolated severe storms appear possible across portions of the southern High Plains.

### Day 6/Saturday

The ensemble mean solutions are in good agreement in depicting a mid/upper-level low over Hudson Bay with a belt of strong mid-level flow extending from slight troughing over the northern High Plains into the Great Lakes and Northeast. There is more spread across the deterministic models with respect to the longitudinal position of that trough, and the position of the associated frontal system. In general, it appears some severe weather threat could materialize across the central Plains. However, confidence in that scenario is low.

### Days 7 and 8/Sunday and Monday

The ensembles indicate a gradual amplification of the large-scale pattern, featuring troughing from Hudson Bay into the MS Valley, and upstream ridging across western Canada and the Pacific Northwest. The location of any relevant surface frontal systems remains highly uncertain, as does the location(s) of any severe-weather threat.

..Mead.. 06/08/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, June 14

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080845 SPC AC 080845

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Thursday

An active period of severe weather is expected from the upper Great Lakes into Ozark Plateau, with the most concentrated and potentially most significant severe storms affecting parts of the Midwest.

Within the base of an upper low centered over Manitoba and northwest Ontario, the models are in good agreement in depicting the progression of a potent short-wave trough and attending mid/upper-level jet streaks through the upper Midwest and upper Great Lakes. There is some model signal that a trailing perturbation on the immediate cyclonic side of the mid-level jet will overspread the mid MS Valley Thursday night.

At the surface, a deepening surface low/frontal wave is expected to develop from central IA into the southern UP of MI during the day, along a cold front advancing through the upper Midwest and into the upper Great Lakes. The southwest extension of that boundary will progress southeast through the lower MO and Mid MS Valleys, while becoming quasi-stationary across the southern Plains. The specific boundary location across the Midwest may be modified to some extent from a thunderstorm complex moving through the area Wednesday night/early Thursday.

A very moist air mass is expected to reside to the south of the surface front, which coupled with modestly steep mid-level lapse rates is expected to yield moderate to strong instability. The presence of a 50-70 kt mid-level jet streak attending the short-wave trough will result in relatively strong deep-layer shear along the frontal zone, with vector orientation becoming increasingly parallel to the boundary with southward extent. The overall pattern appears supportive of an organized severe-weather episode from the upper Great Lakes into mid MS Valley. There is some model signal that a corridor of enhanced tornado potential could develop along and south of the surface low track from eastern IA and northern IL into central and southern WI. That potential scenario will be dictated by the location of the effective surface boundary.

Additional, more isolated severe storms appear possible across parts of the Northeast.

Day 5/Friday

A number of the 00z models progress a lower-latitude short-wave trough through the upper OH Valley and lower Great Lakes, which is a departure from previous model runs. That scenario would increase severe-weather potential across those areas into New England, and perhaps the Mid-Atlantic, given the potential for a moderately unstable air mass across the pre-frontal warm sector. Should subsequent model runs remain consistent with this recent trend, an unconditional 15% probability contour may be needed in the next forecast update.

Elsewhere, Isolated severe storms appear possible across portions of the southern High Plains.

### Day 6/Saturday

The ensemble mean solutions are in good agreement in depicting a mid/upper-level low over Hudson Bay with a belt of strong mid-level flow extending from slight troughing over the northern High Plains into the Great Lakes and Northeast. There is more spread across the deterministic models with respect to the longitudinal position of that trough, and the position of the associated frontal system. In general, it appears some severe weather threat could materialize across the central Plains. However, confidence in that scenario is low.

### Days 7 and 8/Sunday and Monday

The ensembles indicate a gradual amplification of the large-scale pattern, featuring troughing from Hudson Bay into the MS Valley, and upstream ridging across western Canada and the Pacific Northwest. The location of any relevant surface frontal systems remains highly uncertain, as does the location(s) of any severe-weather threat.

..Mead.. 06/08/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, June 15

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080845 SPC AC 080845

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Thursday

An active period of severe weather is expected from the upper Great Lakes into Ozark Plateau, with the most concentrated and potentially most significant severe storms affecting parts of the Midwest.

Within the base of an upper low centered over Manitoba and northwest Ontario, the models are in good agreement in depicting the progression of a potent short-wave trough and attending mid/upper-level jet streaks through the upper Midwest and upper Great Lakes. There is some model signal that a trailing perturbation on the immediate cyclonic side of the mid-level jet will overspread the mid MS Valley Thursday night.

At the surface, a deepening surface low/frontal wave is expected to develop from central IA into the southern UP of MI during the day, along a cold front advancing through the upper Midwest and into the upper Great Lakes. The southwest extension of that boundary will progress southeast through the lower MO and Mid MS Valleys, while becoming quasi-stationary across the southern Plains. The specific boundary location across the Midwest may be modified to some extent from a thunderstorm complex moving through the area Wednesday night/early Thursday.

A very moist air mass is expected to reside to the south of the surface front, which coupled with modestly steep mid-level lapse rates is expected to yield moderate to strong instability. The presence of a 50-70 kt mid-level jet streak attending the short-wave trough will result in relatively strong deep-layer shear along the frontal zone, with vector orientation becoming increasingly parallel to the boundary with southward extent. The overall pattern appears supportive of an organized severe-weather episode from the upper Great Lakes into mid MS Valley. There is some model signal that a corridor of enhanced tornado potential could develop along and south of the surface low track from eastern IA and northern IL into central and southern WI. That potential scenario will be dictated by the location of the effective surface boundary.

Additional, more isolated severe storms appear possible across parts of the Northeast.

Day 5/Friday

A number of the 00z models progress a lower-latitude short-wave trough through the upper OH Valley and lower Great Lakes, which is a departure from previous model runs. That scenario would increase severe-weather potential across those areas into New England, and perhaps the Mid-Atlantic, given the potential for a moderately unstable air mass across the pre-frontal warm sector. Should subsequent model runs remain consistent with this recent trend, an unconditional 15% probability contour may be needed in the next forecast update.

Elsewhere, Isolated severe storms appear possible across portions of the southern High Plains.

### Day 6/Saturday

The ensemble mean solutions are in good agreement in depicting a mid/upper-level low over Hudson Bay with a belt of strong mid-level flow extending from slight troughing over the northern High Plains into the Great Lakes and Northeast. There is more spread across the deterministic models with respect to the longitudinal position of that trough, and the position of the associated frontal system. In general, it appears some severe weather threat could materialize across the central Plains. However, confidence in that scenario is low.

### Days 7 and 8/Sunday and Monday

The ensembles indicate a gradual amplification of the large-scale pattern, featuring troughing from Hudson Bay into the MS Valley, and upstream ridging across western Canada and the Pacific Northwest. The location of any relevant surface frontal systems remains highly uncertain, as does the location(s) of any severe-weather threat.

..Mead.. 06/08/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Monday, June 8

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 30%

Tuesday, June 9

TORNADO: 10%

HAIL: 30%

WIND: 45%

Wednesday, June 10

ANY SEVERE: 30%

Thursday, June 11

ANY SEVERE: 30%

Friday, June 12

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Saturday, June 13

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Sunday, June 14

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Monday, June 15

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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