Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, January 25
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the eastern Gulf Coast states this morning and afternoon. Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are the main concerns.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 250618
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST STATES
CORRECTED FOR SUBSECTION HEADLINE
SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the eastern Gulf Coast states this morning and afternoon. Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are the main concerns.
Gulf Coast States
Southern Plains short-wave trough is forecast to eject across the Arklatex early in the period as a 100+kt 500mb speed max translates across northern MS, then increases to near 130kt over WV by 26/00z. Modest midlevel height falls will spread across the Gulf states and a strong LLJ will respond just downstream from northern AL into the Middle Atlantic. Associated polar front will surge into MS/southern LA by sunrise then shift into AL by 18z. Latest model guidance suggests modified Gulf air mass will advance inland ahead of the surging boundary such that weak buoyancy will develop within roughly 100mi of the Gulf coast. Forecast soundings suggest SBCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg could be noted prior to frontal passage where surface dew points rise into the mid-upper 60s. Given the deep layer shear, convection that develops within this environment would have some potential to organize with some supercell risk. For these reasons have maintained SLGT risk near the Gulf coast to account for morning-afternoon thunderstorms ahead of the cold front. Damaging winds and perhaps a few tornadoes are the primary concerns.
..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Monday, January 26
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms appear unlikely Monday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 250650
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms appear unlikely Monday.
Synopsis
A strong upper trough initially centered across the Plains and Great Lakes will move off the East Coast by early Tuesday. A second upper trough over the Canadian Prairies will subsequently move southward and intensify over the northern US as ridging builds over the West. At the surface, a strong cold front will sweep across the central and southern FL Peninsula Monday morning and afternoon. While a thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out across the FL Atlantic coast, deep-layer ascent will diminish as the primary ascent departs with the offshore trough. This will limit thunderstorm development inland as the expansive Arctic air mass forces the remaining instability offshore.
..Lyons.. 01/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Tuesday, January 27
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, January 27 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, January 28 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, January 29 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, January 30 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, January 31 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240956 SPC AC 240956
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
Amplified mid-level flow will persist over the US through the remainder of the extended forecast period. Continued troughing in the eastern US will be supported by the arrival of multiple perturbations from southern Canada over the next week. At the same time, strong ridging developing over the West will favor northwesterly flow aloft over the central States. This will allow for multiple reinforcing surges of cold air to replenish a cold, dry and stable air mass. Thus, severe thunderstorms are unlikely through day 8.
..Lyons.. 01/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, January 28
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, January 27 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, January 28 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, January 29 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, January 30 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, January 31 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240956 SPC AC 240956
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
Amplified mid-level flow will persist over the US through the remainder of the extended forecast period. Continued troughing in the eastern US will be supported by the arrival of multiple perturbations from southern Canada over the next week. At the same time, strong ridging developing over the West will favor northwesterly flow aloft over the central States. This will allow for multiple reinforcing surges of cold air to replenish a cold, dry and stable air mass. Thus, severe thunderstorms are unlikely through day 8.
..Lyons.. 01/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, January 29
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, January 27 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, January 28 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, January 29 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, January 30 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, January 31 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240956 SPC AC 240956
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
Amplified mid-level flow will persist over the US through the remainder of the extended forecast period. Continued troughing in the eastern US will be supported by the arrival of multiple perturbations from southern Canada over the next week. At the same time, strong ridging developing over the West will favor northwesterly flow aloft over the central States. This will allow for multiple reinforcing surges of cold air to replenish a cold, dry and stable air mass. Thus, severe thunderstorms are unlikely through day 8.
..Lyons.. 01/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, January 30
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, January 27 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, January 28 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, January 29 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, January 30 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, January 31 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240956 SPC AC 240956
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
Amplified mid-level flow will persist over the US through the remainder of the extended forecast period. Continued troughing in the eastern US will be supported by the arrival of multiple perturbations from southern Canada over the next week. At the same time, strong ridging developing over the West will favor northwesterly flow aloft over the central States. This will allow for multiple reinforcing surges of cold air to replenish a cold, dry and stable air mass. Thus, severe thunderstorms are unlikely through day 8.
..Lyons.. 01/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, January 31
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, January 27 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, January 28 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, January 29 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, January 30 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, January 31 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240956 SPC AC 240956
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
Amplified mid-level flow will persist over the US through the remainder of the extended forecast period. Continued troughing in the eastern US will be supported by the arrival of multiple perturbations from southern Canada over the next week. At the same time, strong ridging developing over the West will favor northwesterly flow aloft over the central States. This will allow for multiple reinforcing surges of cold air to replenish a cold, dry and stable air mass. Thus, severe thunderstorms are unlikely through day 8.
..Lyons.. 01/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, January 25
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 15%
- Monday, January 26
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, January 27
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, January 28
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, January 29
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, January 30
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, January 31
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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