Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, October 21
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging winds remain possible today and tonight across parts of Arizona and vicinity. Isolated severe gusts and perhaps a tornado may also occur along the central/southern California Coast.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 30%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 211953
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026
Valid 212000Z - 221200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL ARIZONA
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging winds remain possible today and tonight across parts of Arizona and vicinity. Isolated severe gusts and perhaps a tornado may also occur along the central/southern California Coast.
20z Update
No changes were made to the existing outlook with this update as the forecast remains generally on track. Convective activity/severe potential is generally expected to peak this afternoon/early evening coincident with peak diurnal heating/destabilization. However, additional rounds of thunderstorm development and the potential for supercells capable of primarily large hail are likely to continue into the late evening/overnight hours, especially across central/northern Arizona, amid a continuing southerly, warm-air advection regime. See MCDs #2387 and #2388 along with the discussion below for additional short-term details.
..Chalmers.. 10/21/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026/
Southwest
Recent satellite imagery continues to show deep southwesterly flow aloft from the central Baja Peninsula through AZ and the Four Corners region. Warm-air advection associated with this southwesterly flow aloft has contributed to showers and thunderstorms across central/northern AZ this morning. The low-level airmass here is still relatively cool and stable, but strong vertical shear has still resulted in several supercells. As mentioned in MCD #2385, additional/isolated thunderstorms are possible within this low-midlevel moisture plume, potentially aided by embedded speed maxima moving north-northeastward. Strong vertical shear will persist as well, suggesting several of these storms could become supercellular. Large hail will remain the primary risk until the low levels destabilize.
Deep cyclone off the central/southern CA coast is forecast to gradually shift east-southeastward today. As it does, southwesterly flow aloft within its eastern periphery will strengthen, with deep-layer vertical shear across AZ also strengthening in response. Low-level moisture will advect northward as well. Even with widespread cloudiness, this increased moisture combined with filtered daytime heating will support gradual airmass destabilization and the development of up to 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE across this region. Strongest buoyancy is anticipated in south-central AZ.
Forcing for ascent will increase in tandem with airmass destabilization and the general expectation is for increasing thunderstorm coverage along and just south/west of the Mogollon Rim this afternoon. Supercell wind profiles are in place, and large to isolated very large hail (i.e. 2”+ in diameter) is expected to be the primary hazard. However, storm motion will take these storms north-northeastward, potentially interacting with the more southeasterly low-level flow along/near the Rim. Resulting increase in low-level shear will support an increased tornado potential. This potential will be maximized from northwest into central AZ this afternoon and early evening, but low-probability tornado potential will extend to the southern AZ/NM border. Strong wind gusts are possible as well, particularly from central into southeast AZ where relatively stronger heating/mixing is possible.
Tornado threat is expected to diminish gradually with the loss of daytime heating, but thunderstorms will likely persist throughout the evening and overnight. Large hail will remain possible with this overnight activity.
Coastal Central/Southern California
The large cyclone over the eastern Pacific will approach the central CA Coast through the period, with a belt of strong southerly flow at mid levels expected to overspread coastal central/southern CA through the day. A low-topped line of convection may develop in response and impact this region during the afternoon/evening. Limited instability is forecast, and updrafts may struggle to reach sufficient depth for charge separation and lightning production. Even so, given modestly enhanced flow and low-level shear, an isolated risk for severe gusts and perhaps a tornado may exist as this convection moves onshore.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Thursday, October 22
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Southwest and Four Corners area on Thursday, with the greatest risk across parts of Arizona. All severe hazards will be possible.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 211729
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Southwest and Four Corners area on Thursday, with the greatest risk across parts of Arizona. All severe hazards will be possible.
Synopsis
An broad upper trough with an embedded upper low off the southern California coast will move eastward on Thursday. This feature will become more of an open wave with a modest negative tilt with time. Above normal low-level moisture will be in place within the Southwest. Widely scattered to scattered storms are expected, some of which may be strong to severe.
Southwest into parts of the Great Basin
Strong meridional flow associated with the approaching upper-trough will overspread parts of the Great Basin and Southwest through the day. Moisture/destabilization will be more limited with northward/eastward extent. Some convection will be possible early in the period across much of the region. Depending on where pockets of greater heating can occur, widely scattered to scattered storms are expected to develop during the afternoon both within the terrain and along a surface trough within the central Great Basin. Isolated marginally severe hail and severe winds will be the primary concerns. The potential for a tornado will increase within southern Utah into Arizona where surface flow will be more backed greater destabilization is more probable.
With the upper-trough becoming more of an open wave with time, the most favorable overlap of mid-level ascent, surface heating, and steeper mid-level lapse rates will be across parts of southeast Arizona. Storms will likely be supercellular initially. Large hail (perhaps to around 2 inches) and a couple of tornadoes will be the main concern. With time, storm interactions and an increasing linear mode will mean a transition to more a wind threat by later in the afternoon. Destabilization from the Mogollon Rim northward becomes more uncertain given the signal for early clouds/precipitation.
Coastal Southern California
As the upper-level low moves overhead during the afternoon, temperatures aloft will become quite cold (around -20C at 500 mb). Modest surface heating will lead to around 500-750 J/kg MLCAPE, potentially. Low-topped convection near the coast is possible during the morning into the early afternoon before mid-level ascent begins to decrease. Given the ambient vorticity with the upper-low and local terrain effects, a brief tornado is possible with the strongest storms along with isolated wind damage potential.
..Wendt.. 10/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Friday, October 23
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of central into southern New Mexico on Friday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 211913
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of central into southern New Mexico on Friday.
New Mexico
Steady mid-level height falls are expected across the Southwest in the wake of a departing shortwave trough. Low-level moisture will be maintained on the western edge of an expansive eastern surface ridge. Sufficient surface heating will allow 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE to develop during the afternoon (greater values with southward extent). Cooling aloft, modest mid-level lapse rates, and moderate deep-layer shear will support a mix of multicells and supercells. Large hail and isolated severe gusts will be the main concerns within parts of central New Mexico.
..Wendt.. 10/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Saturday, October 24
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, October 28 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210800 SPC AC 210800
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough gradually progressing across the Rockies this weekend will eject into the Plains, with the prevailing mid-level flow pattern becoming more zonal and progressive through next week. Surface high pressure and attendant subsidence will overspread most of the CONUS east of the Rockies, limiting thunderstorm development through at least early next week. The best chance for any severe weather (albeit sparse) would be across the southern Rockies Day 4 (Saturday), where a buoyant airmass will reside ahead of the upper trough prior to ejection.
Medium range guidance depicts the eastward progression and amplification of another upper trough toward the middle of next week, which should encourage strong surface troughing and the progression of a cold front across the central U.S. The southern extent of the front may interact with a potentially buoyant airmass over the southern Plains, most likely around Day 8 (Wednesday) or beyond. While at least isolated severe storms are possible, questions regarding the placement and timing of the front, and lack of consistency among guidance precludes severe probabilities this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 10/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, October 25
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, October 28 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210800 SPC AC 210800
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough gradually progressing across the Rockies this weekend will eject into the Plains, with the prevailing mid-level flow pattern becoming more zonal and progressive through next week. Surface high pressure and attendant subsidence will overspread most of the CONUS east of the Rockies, limiting thunderstorm development through at least early next week. The best chance for any severe weather (albeit sparse) would be across the southern Rockies Day 4 (Saturday), where a buoyant airmass will reside ahead of the upper trough prior to ejection.
Medium range guidance depicts the eastward progression and amplification of another upper trough toward the middle of next week, which should encourage strong surface troughing and the progression of a cold front across the central U.S. The southern extent of the front may interact with a potentially buoyant airmass over the southern Plains, most likely around Day 8 (Wednesday) or beyond. While at least isolated severe storms are possible, questions regarding the placement and timing of the front, and lack of consistency among guidance precludes severe probabilities this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 10/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, October 26
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, October 28 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210800 SPC AC 210800
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough gradually progressing across the Rockies this weekend will eject into the Plains, with the prevailing mid-level flow pattern becoming more zonal and progressive through next week. Surface high pressure and attendant subsidence will overspread most of the CONUS east of the Rockies, limiting thunderstorm development through at least early next week. The best chance for any severe weather (albeit sparse) would be across the southern Rockies Day 4 (Saturday), where a buoyant airmass will reside ahead of the upper trough prior to ejection.
Medium range guidance depicts the eastward progression and amplification of another upper trough toward the middle of next week, which should encourage strong surface troughing and the progression of a cold front across the central U.S. The southern extent of the front may interact with a potentially buoyant airmass over the southern Plains, most likely around Day 8 (Wednesday) or beyond. While at least isolated severe storms are possible, questions regarding the placement and timing of the front, and lack of consistency among guidance precludes severe probabilities this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 10/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, October 27
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, October 28 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210800 SPC AC 210800
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough gradually progressing across the Rockies this weekend will eject into the Plains, with the prevailing mid-level flow pattern becoming more zonal and progressive through next week. Surface high pressure and attendant subsidence will overspread most of the CONUS east of the Rockies, limiting thunderstorm development through at least early next week. The best chance for any severe weather (albeit sparse) would be across the southern Rockies Day 4 (Saturday), where a buoyant airmass will reside ahead of the upper trough prior to ejection.
Medium range guidance depicts the eastward progression and amplification of another upper trough toward the middle of next week, which should encourage strong surface troughing and the progression of a cold front across the central U.S. The southern extent of the front may interact with a potentially buoyant airmass over the southern Plains, most likely around Day 8 (Wednesday) or beyond. While at least isolated severe storms are possible, questions regarding the placement and timing of the front, and lack of consistency among guidance precludes severe probabilities this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 10/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, October 28
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, October 28 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210800 SPC AC 210800
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough gradually progressing across the Rockies this weekend will eject into the Plains, with the prevailing mid-level flow pattern becoming more zonal and progressive through next week. Surface high pressure and attendant subsidence will overspread most of the CONUS east of the Rockies, limiting thunderstorm development through at least early next week. The best chance for any severe weather (albeit sparse) would be across the southern Rockies Day 4 (Saturday), where a buoyant airmass will reside ahead of the upper trough prior to ejection.
Medium range guidance depicts the eastward progression and amplification of another upper trough toward the middle of next week, which should encourage strong surface troughing and the progression of a cold front across the central U.S. The southern extent of the front may interact with a potentially buoyant airmass over the southern Plains, most likely around Day 8 (Wednesday) or beyond. While at least isolated severe storms are possible, questions regarding the placement and timing of the front, and lack of consistency among guidance precludes severe probabilities this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 10/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, October 21
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 30%
- WIND: 15%
- Thursday, October 22
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Friday, October 23
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Saturday, October 24
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, October 25
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, October 26
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, October 27
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, October 28
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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