Severe Weather Outlook
Hayley here - Do you want to see severe weather in your calendar?
* it's like an add-on for your digital calendar NOT a paper calendar
National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, June 19
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce gusty winds and hail today across parts of the the Upper Midwest and central Plains. Other strong thunderstorms may produce occasional damaging winds from north Texas/southern Oklahoma into portions of the Southeast, and separately across parts of the Sierra into the northern Great Basin.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 191244
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026
Valid 191300Z - 201200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHEAST…CENTRAL PLAINS…UPPER MIDWEST…AND SIERRA INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce gusty winds and hail today across parts of the the Upper Midwest and central Plains. Other strong thunderstorms may produce occasional damaging winds from north Texas/southern Oklahoma into portions of the Southeast, and separately across parts of the Sierra into the northern Great Basin.
Texas into the Southeast/Carolinas
An expansive area of convection has developed this morning across north-central TX/southern OK, aided by modest low-level warm advection and a weak mid-level disturbance. Both low-level and deep-layer shear remain weak across this region (generally less than 20-25 kt), which should tend to limit updraft organization and overall thunderstorm severity through the rest of the morning. But, a very moist airmass and substantial reservoir of instability are present ahead of this ongoing convection and south of a surface cold front extending across TX into the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley.
Current expectations are for an isolated severe/damaging wind threat to persist downstream into the afternoon across these areas as the moist airmass undergoes additional destabilization with daytime heating. Considered including higher wind probabilities, but confidence in a more organized/severe MCS remains low owing to the weak deep-layer shear. Additional thunderstorms have also formed south into central/south-central TX this morning. This activity may also pose some risk for severe winds with the stronger cores as it develops east-southeastward through the day, even though shear and overall updraft organization will remain modest.
The Marginal Risk extending into the Southeast/eastern Carolinas has been generally adjusted southward to account for the position of the cold front, and expectations that the isolated damaging wind risk will likely remain confined along/south of this boundary. Stronger low/mid-level flow associated with the remnants of Arthur over the eastern Carolinas this morning is forecast to quickly shift offshore through the day. An isolated severe wind and brief tornado threat may exist along/ahead of ongoing precipitation across this region, although instability will remain limited.
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will likely develop this afternoon across parts of the FL Peninsula, with a preferential focus along the Atlantic Coast sea breeze given modest westerly flow aloft. While low/mid-level winds and related shear are expected to remain weak, the strongest cores could still become capable of producing occasional damaging winds as low-level lapse rates steepen with daytime heating.
Upper Midwest
An upper low will remain over northern Manitoba/Ontario today, with a broad fetch of moderate northwest flow aloft across the northern Rockies/Plains. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the Dakotas and toward the upper MS Valley by this evening, with weak surface low pressure into northern MN. Strong surface heating along with generally 50s surface dewpoints and convergence near a cold front will lead to scattered storms across much of MN and western WI. Forecast soundings show cold profiles aloft over northern areas, though effective bulk shear will be somewhat weaker with northward extent. Deep-layer shear will be stronger over southern MN, but instability will not be as favorable farther south. Even so, cells that develop this afternoon and evening and track southeastward may be capable of producing severe hail given the cool mid-level temperatures. Occasional severe/damaging winds may also occur.
Central Plains
Beneath modest northwest flow aloft, surface low pressure will develop over southeast CO today, with southeasterly low-level winds across the central Plains. This will aid modest low-level warm/moist advection, with 50s to perhaps low 60s surface dewpoints across KS, eastern CO, and southern NE. It remains uncertain if any thunderstorms will develop later today across this region, but the influence of the upper trough over the northern Plains may yield a few elevated cells. Additional warm/moist advection this evening/overnight may also support isolated convective development. Hail appears to be the primary risk, with moderate instability/deep-layer shear and somewhat steepened mid-level lapse rates potentially supporting supercells. However, confidence in sustained convection remains too low to include greater severe probabilities.
Sierra/Northern Great Basin
As a weak mid-level shortwave trough advances inland from the eastern Pacific, isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms should develop later today across parts of the northern Sierra Mountains into adjacent portions of the Great Basin. While low-level moisture will remain limited, a very deeply mixed boundary layer and some mid-level moisture/cooling aloft ahead of the shortwave trough should support weak instability and thunderstorm potential. This activity could become strong given some deep-layer shear, with isolated severe gusts/outflow possible.
..Gleason/Broyles.. 06/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Saturday, June 20
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the central Plains vicinity from Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. Large to very-large hail, severe winds (some 75+ mph), and tornadoes are possible.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 30%
hail 30%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 190547
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the central Plains vicinity from Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. Large to very-large hail, severe winds (some 75+ mph), and tornadoes are possible.
Synopsis
A mid-level ridge will de-amplify as it emerges from the Rockies to the central Plains on Saturday. As this occurs, mid-level flow will strengthen across the Rockies with strong lee cyclogenesis across eastern Colorado. A frontal zone will extend eastward from the surface low somewhere near southern Nebraska with a dryline extending southward into the southern Plains.
Central Plains
Low-level flow will strengthen across the Plains during the day Saturday as the lee cyclone deepens across eastern Colorado. This will result in northward moisture transport and destabilization across Kansas, northeast Colorado, and southwest Nebraska. By mid-afternoon, expect storms to develop within the upslope flow regime across eastern Wyoming, southwest South Dakota, and the Nebraska Panhandle. Forecast soundings show cool temperatures aloft, steep lapse rates, and strong shear which will support supercells capable of large to very large hail in this area.
By later in the afternoon, expect storm development along the uncapped dryline across eastern Colorado and western Kansas, and along the frontal zone in central/southern Nebraska. Moderate mid-level flow across the warm sector within this zone will support a supercell storm mode. These initial supercells will pose a threat for large to very large hail. In addition, some tornado threat will exist with this activity, particularly along the front and as the low-level jet strengthens during the evening. Expect these supercells to congeal into one or more MCSs during the evening and track southeastward into central and eastern Kansas, with an increasing wind threat (with some 75+ mph gust potential), and perhaps a QLCS/embedded supercell tornado threat.
..Bentley.. 06/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Sunday, June 21
Outlook Summary
Severe storms are possible along a frontal zone from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the central High Plains on Sunday. Large hail, severe winds, and tornadoes will be possible.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 190716
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO PARTS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
### SUMMARY
Severe storms are possible along a frontal zone from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the central High Plains on Sunday. Large hail, severe winds, and tornadoes will be possible.
Synopsis
A mostly zonal pattern will exist across the CONUS on Sunday with multiple embedded shortwave troughs. The primary surface low is forecast to remain near the Texas Panhandle during the day Sunday, with a stationary front extending northeastward through southern Kansas, central Missouri, and into Illinois. An additional, perhaps convectively enhanced, surface low may be present across northern Missouri and Illinois during the afternoon/evening.
Central Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley
A MCS will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across portions of Kansas/western Missouri near the nose of the low-level jet. As this moves east through the day, areas southwest of this cluster, and perhaps immediately in its wake, are expected to destabilize substantially. This will represent a zone where storms are expected to develop along the front amid moderate instability and shear, most likely from northeast Oklahoma to near St. Louis. These storms would pose a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts.
A lower probability, but higher potential impact scenario could develop across parts of eastern Missouri into central/southern Illinois Sunday afternoon if a better defined, surface low develops along the front and deepens through the day. This is most notably shown by the NAM, but is also shown to a lesser extent by the ECMWF. This could result in a localized corridor of greater tornado threat on Sunday due to increased low-level shear. However, this scenario will be conditional on both the development of this surface low and the location of the morning MCS. Therefore, greater probabilities have not been added, but this potential scenario will continue to be monitored.
Central High Plains
Scattered storms are likely to develop in the post-frontal airmass across western Kansas, eastern Colorado, and southwest Nebraska on Sunday afternoon/evening, triggered by a shortwave trough overspreading the region. Strengthening mid-level flow (near 50 knots based on much of the 00Z guidance) atop moderate instability will support supercells with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts.
..Bentley.. 06/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Monday, June 22
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, June 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, June 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, June 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, June 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, June 26 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190815 SPC AC 190815
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe weather is possible along a frontal zone from the Mid-Atlantic to the southern Plains on Monday. The specific areas of threat will be defined by the locations of individual shortwave troughs embedded within the broader cyclonic flow. These small-scale features lack consensus at the Day 4 timeframe which precludes 15% severe weather probabilities at this time.
By Day 5/Tuesday, some severe weather threat is possible across portions of the central High Plains. There is decent model agreement showing moderate northwest flow aloft across eastern Colorado and vicinity on the eastern periphery of a western CONUS ridge. However, there is considerable spread in moisture return among the guidance. Should adequate moisture advect into the region, a northwest flow severe weather event is possible in the eastern Colorado vicinity. This will need to be monitored.
Day 6 and beyond, model spread increases which limits predictability. Most guidance shows moderate northwesterly flow across portions of the Plains, which would suggest continued severe weather episodes during the extended period. However, specific days and locations cannot be highlighted at this time due to aforementioned predictability challenges.
..Bentley.. 06/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, June 23
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, June 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, June 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, June 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, June 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, June 26 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190815 SPC AC 190815
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe weather is possible along a frontal zone from the Mid-Atlantic to the southern Plains on Monday. The specific areas of threat will be defined by the locations of individual shortwave troughs embedded within the broader cyclonic flow. These small-scale features lack consensus at the Day 4 timeframe which precludes 15% severe weather probabilities at this time.
By Day 5/Tuesday, some severe weather threat is possible across portions of the central High Plains. There is decent model agreement showing moderate northwest flow aloft across eastern Colorado and vicinity on the eastern periphery of a western CONUS ridge. However, there is considerable spread in moisture return among the guidance. Should adequate moisture advect into the region, a northwest flow severe weather event is possible in the eastern Colorado vicinity. This will need to be monitored.
Day 6 and beyond, model spread increases which limits predictability. Most guidance shows moderate northwesterly flow across portions of the Plains, which would suggest continued severe weather episodes during the extended period. However, specific days and locations cannot be highlighted at this time due to aforementioned predictability challenges.
..Bentley.. 06/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, June 24
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, June 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, June 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, June 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, June 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, June 26 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190815 SPC AC 190815
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe weather is possible along a frontal zone from the Mid-Atlantic to the southern Plains on Monday. The specific areas of threat will be defined by the locations of individual shortwave troughs embedded within the broader cyclonic flow. These small-scale features lack consensus at the Day 4 timeframe which precludes 15% severe weather probabilities at this time.
By Day 5/Tuesday, some severe weather threat is possible across portions of the central High Plains. There is decent model agreement showing moderate northwest flow aloft across eastern Colorado and vicinity on the eastern periphery of a western CONUS ridge. However, there is considerable spread in moisture return among the guidance. Should adequate moisture advect into the region, a northwest flow severe weather event is possible in the eastern Colorado vicinity. This will need to be monitored.
Day 6 and beyond, model spread increases which limits predictability. Most guidance shows moderate northwesterly flow across portions of the Plains, which would suggest continued severe weather episodes during the extended period. However, specific days and locations cannot be highlighted at this time due to aforementioned predictability challenges.
..Bentley.. 06/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, June 25
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, June 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, June 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, June 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, June 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, June 26 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190815 SPC AC 190815
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe weather is possible along a frontal zone from the Mid-Atlantic to the southern Plains on Monday. The specific areas of threat will be defined by the locations of individual shortwave troughs embedded within the broader cyclonic flow. These small-scale features lack consensus at the Day 4 timeframe which precludes 15% severe weather probabilities at this time.
By Day 5/Tuesday, some severe weather threat is possible across portions of the central High Plains. There is decent model agreement showing moderate northwest flow aloft across eastern Colorado and vicinity on the eastern periphery of a western CONUS ridge. However, there is considerable spread in moisture return among the guidance. Should adequate moisture advect into the region, a northwest flow severe weather event is possible in the eastern Colorado vicinity. This will need to be monitored.
Day 6 and beyond, model spread increases which limits predictability. Most guidance shows moderate northwesterly flow across portions of the Plains, which would suggest continued severe weather episodes during the extended period. However, specific days and locations cannot be highlighted at this time due to aforementioned predictability challenges.
..Bentley.. 06/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, June 26
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, June 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, June 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, June 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, June 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, June 26 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190815 SPC AC 190815
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe weather is possible along a frontal zone from the Mid-Atlantic to the southern Plains on Monday. The specific areas of threat will be defined by the locations of individual shortwave troughs embedded within the broader cyclonic flow. These small-scale features lack consensus at the Day 4 timeframe which precludes 15% severe weather probabilities at this time.
By Day 5/Tuesday, some severe weather threat is possible across portions of the central High Plains. There is decent model agreement showing moderate northwest flow aloft across eastern Colorado and vicinity on the eastern periphery of a western CONUS ridge. However, there is considerable spread in moisture return among the guidance. Should adequate moisture advect into the region, a northwest flow severe weather event is possible in the eastern Colorado vicinity. This will need to be monitored.
Day 6 and beyond, model spread increases which limits predictability. Most guidance shows moderate northwesterly flow across portions of the Plains, which would suggest continued severe weather episodes during the extended period. However, specific days and locations cannot be highlighted at this time due to aforementioned predictability challenges.
..Bentley.. 06/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, June 19
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Saturday, June 20
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 30%
- WIND: 30%
- Sunday, June 21
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Monday, June 22
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, June 23
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, June 24
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, June 25
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, June 26
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Your Severe Outlook
Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.
Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.
Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.
About Severe Weather Outlook . com
SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.
- tornado hq - live severe weather warnings
- cyclocane - hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones
- tornado solitaire - play cards while you monitor the US severe weather threat
- tertremo - live view of earthquakes around the world
- earthquake solitaire - get live earthquake updates as you play your favorite card game