Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, May 19
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible today from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South, Ohio Valley, and lower Great Lakes. Damaging winds and hail will be the primary threats. A greater threat for large to very large hail should exist across parts of west-central Texas.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 191258
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026
Valid 191300Z - 201200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MID-SOUTH…OHIO VALLEY…AND LOWER GREAT LAKES
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible today from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South, Ohio Valley, and lower Great Lakes. Damaging winds and hail will be the primary threats. A greater threat for large to very large hail should exist across parts of west-central Texas.
Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley
Numerous thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across central/eastern OK into northwest AR and southern MO. Most of this activity is occurring along and north of a southward-moving cold front, and should therefore pose a limited severe risk in the short term. Eventual regeneration along the cold front and/or strengthening of ongoing activity should occur later today across TX into the lower MS Valley/Mid-South. Mid-level flow is forecast to remain fairly modest, and deep-layer shear for most areas will tend to be marginal. Still, filtered daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass will support moderate to strong instability along/ahead of the front by early afternoon. Scattered severe/damaging winds should be the main threat with loosely organized clusters and bowing line segments. This wind threat may continue to the TX/LA Coast this evening/overnight. Some potential for supercells should also exist across parts of west-central TX and vicinity, where steeper mid-level lapse rates and greater instability is forecast to be in place. Large hail appears possible with any supercells that can be sustained, and isolated 2+ inch diameter hail may occur. With time this evening, this convection may also grow upscale into a bowing cluster and pose a greater severe wind risk.
Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast
Modestly enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow will be present today over the OH Valley and lower Great Lakes regions, as a positively tilted mid/upper-level trough moves from the Upper Midwest into eastern Canada. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop along/ahead of a surface cold front this afternoon as the pre-frontal airmass gradually destabilizes. Stronger instability should be present this afternoon across the OH Valley, but greater deep-layer shear may tend to remain mostly displaced farther north. Even so, some thunderstorm organization should occur, with multicells and bowing line segments possible. Scattered severe/damaging winds should be the main threat, although isolated hail could occur with the strongest cores. This convection should spread into the lower Great Lakes by mid to late evening, before eventually weakening across the Northeast late tonight. A separate area of convection may develop this afternoon across parts of New England, and also pose a threat for mainly occasional damaging winds.
..Gleason/Marsh.. 05/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Wednesday, May 20
Outlook Summary
Scattered thunderstorm activity across the Mid-Atlantic region Wednesday may pose a risk for severe wind and hail. Large hail will be possible with isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms developing over the southern High Plains into southwest Texas.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 190548
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS
### SUMMARY
Scattered thunderstorm activity across the Mid-Atlantic region Wednesday may pose a risk for severe wind and hail. Large hail will be possible with isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms developing over the southern High Plains into southwest Texas.
Synopsis
A trough will continue to lift northward into Canada D2/Wednesday, with a cold front extending from the Northeast southward across the southern Ohio Valley into the lower Mississippi Valley and westward into southwestern Texas and eastern New Mexico. Scattered strong to severe storms are expected near the front in the mid Atlantic and near the high terrain of western Texas.
Mid-Atlantic
Scattered showers and storms are expected along the cold front Wednesday afternoon across portions of the Mid-Atlantic. The downstream air mass will include a narrow plume of weak to moderate instability. Though deep layer shear and mid-level lapse rates will be marginal, steep low level lapse rates will support a few instances of strong to severe winds.
Southwest Texas and eastern New Mexico
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop near the high terrain within the upslope flow regime across western Texas and eastern New Mexico Wednesday afternoon. Forecast soundings depict sufficient deep layer shear to support supercells. Moderate to strong instability and steep low to mid-level lapse rates will support potential for large hail and a few occurrences of severe winds.
..Thornton.. 05/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Thursday, May 21
Outlook Summary
Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected across the northern Rockies, portions of the southern Florida peninsula, and from the southern Plains to portions of the Southeast on Thursday. Severe storms are not expected.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 190723
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected across the northern Rockies, portions of the southern Florida peninsula, and from the southern Plains to portions of the Southeast on Thursday. Severe storms are not expected.
Discussion
A few thunderstorms will be possible near the upper low across Montana. Limited moisture and weak instability will limit the severe risk in this region.
A stationary front will extend from far southern Texas into the Mississippi Valley and northward to the Carolinas. Scattered thunderstorms are expected along and south of the front across the Southeast and mid Atlantic. Additional afternoon thunderstorms will develop across the southern Florida peninsula with the sea breeze circulation. Storms will likely be sub severe, given weak flow/shear for organization across these regions.
Across the southern High Plains, widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected near the front and across portions of the high terrain from western Texas into eastern New Mexico/southeastern Colorado. Moisture will become more limited with northern extent in New Mexico and Colorado, with dew points in the low 50s. A few stronger storms may produce instances of strong winds and small hail. Overall, the stronger mid-level flow should remain displaced from the better moisture leading to low confidence in a more organized severe threat.
..Thornton.. 05/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Friday, May 22
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, May 22 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Saturday, May 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, May 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, May 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, May 26 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190900 SPC AC 190900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Friday
Moist southerly return flow will begin across the southern/central Plains into the weekend. Modest westerly flow aloft across the dryline on D4/Friday may support potential for severe storms. Guidance shows disagreement in the location of the dryline, with some guidance depicting the dryline back in the OK/TX Panhandle and others with a further east dryline into western Oklahoma. Forecast soundings show limited inhibition by the afternoon, with strong daytime heating and temperatures warming into the mid to upper 80s. Steep low to mid-level lapse rates are also noted, with moderate to strong instability ahead of the dryline. Given weak inhibition and modest mid-level flow, convective initiation is possible by the afternoon. Shear profiles are marginally sufficient to support organized storms, with a mix of multi-cell and supercell modes. A 15% area was added with this outlook where confidence is greater in convection occurring.
D5/Saturday-D8/Tuesday
Through the end of the extended period, height rises are expected across the central US as a high amplitude ridge settles in from the west. While moisture will continue to move northward into the central/northern Plains, generally weak flow and subsidence will keep severe potential low.
..Thornton.. 05/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, May 23
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, May 22 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Saturday, May 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, May 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, May 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, May 26 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190900 SPC AC 190900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Friday
Moist southerly return flow will begin across the southern/central Plains into the weekend. Modest westerly flow aloft across the dryline on D4/Friday may support potential for severe storms. Guidance shows disagreement in the location of the dryline, with some guidance depicting the dryline back in the OK/TX Panhandle and others with a further east dryline into western Oklahoma. Forecast soundings show limited inhibition by the afternoon, with strong daytime heating and temperatures warming into the mid to upper 80s. Steep low to mid-level lapse rates are also noted, with moderate to strong instability ahead of the dryline. Given weak inhibition and modest mid-level flow, convective initiation is possible by the afternoon. Shear profiles are marginally sufficient to support organized storms, with a mix of multi-cell and supercell modes. A 15% area was added with this outlook where confidence is greater in convection occurring.
D5/Saturday-D8/Tuesday
Through the end of the extended period, height rises are expected across the central US as a high amplitude ridge settles in from the west. While moisture will continue to move northward into the central/northern Plains, generally weak flow and subsidence will keep severe potential low.
..Thornton.. 05/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, May 24
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, May 22 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Saturday, May 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, May 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, May 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, May 26 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190900 SPC AC 190900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Friday
Moist southerly return flow will begin across the southern/central Plains into the weekend. Modest westerly flow aloft across the dryline on D4/Friday may support potential for severe storms. Guidance shows disagreement in the location of the dryline, with some guidance depicting the dryline back in the OK/TX Panhandle and others with a further east dryline into western Oklahoma. Forecast soundings show limited inhibition by the afternoon, with strong daytime heating and temperatures warming into the mid to upper 80s. Steep low to mid-level lapse rates are also noted, with moderate to strong instability ahead of the dryline. Given weak inhibition and modest mid-level flow, convective initiation is possible by the afternoon. Shear profiles are marginally sufficient to support organized storms, with a mix of multi-cell and supercell modes. A 15% area was added with this outlook where confidence is greater in convection occurring.
D5/Saturday-D8/Tuesday
Through the end of the extended period, height rises are expected across the central US as a high amplitude ridge settles in from the west. While moisture will continue to move northward into the central/northern Plains, generally weak flow and subsidence will keep severe potential low.
..Thornton.. 05/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, May 25
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, May 22 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Saturday, May 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, May 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, May 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, May 26 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190900 SPC AC 190900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Friday
Moist southerly return flow will begin across the southern/central Plains into the weekend. Modest westerly flow aloft across the dryline on D4/Friday may support potential for severe storms. Guidance shows disagreement in the location of the dryline, with some guidance depicting the dryline back in the OK/TX Panhandle and others with a further east dryline into western Oklahoma. Forecast soundings show limited inhibition by the afternoon, with strong daytime heating and temperatures warming into the mid to upper 80s. Steep low to mid-level lapse rates are also noted, with moderate to strong instability ahead of the dryline. Given weak inhibition and modest mid-level flow, convective initiation is possible by the afternoon. Shear profiles are marginally sufficient to support organized storms, with a mix of multi-cell and supercell modes. A 15% area was added with this outlook where confidence is greater in convection occurring.
D5/Saturday-D8/Tuesday
Through the end of the extended period, height rises are expected across the central US as a high amplitude ridge settles in from the west. While moisture will continue to move northward into the central/northern Plains, generally weak flow and subsidence will keep severe potential low.
..Thornton.. 05/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, May 26
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, May 22 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Saturday, May 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, May 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, May 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, May 26 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190900 SPC AC 190900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Friday
Moist southerly return flow will begin across the southern/central Plains into the weekend. Modest westerly flow aloft across the dryline on D4/Friday may support potential for severe storms. Guidance shows disagreement in the location of the dryline, with some guidance depicting the dryline back in the OK/TX Panhandle and others with a further east dryline into western Oklahoma. Forecast soundings show limited inhibition by the afternoon, with strong daytime heating and temperatures warming into the mid to upper 80s. Steep low to mid-level lapse rates are also noted, with moderate to strong instability ahead of the dryline. Given weak inhibition and modest mid-level flow, convective initiation is possible by the afternoon. Shear profiles are marginally sufficient to support organized storms, with a mix of multi-cell and supercell modes. A 15% area was added with this outlook where confidence is greater in convection occurring.
D5/Saturday-D8/Tuesday
Through the end of the extended period, height rises are expected across the central US as a high amplitude ridge settles in from the west. While moisture will continue to move northward into the central/northern Plains, generally weak flow and subsidence will keep severe potential low.
..Thornton.. 05/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, May 19
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Wednesday, May 20
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Thursday, May 21
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Friday, May 22
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Saturday, May 23
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, May 24
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, May 25
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, May 26
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Your Severe Outlook
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