Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, February 17
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are possible across Pacific coastal areas much of California Tuesday, and across parts of the mid Missouri Valley into the Upper Midwest late. The risk for severe storms appears low.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 170534
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are possible across Pacific coastal areas much of California Tuesday, and across parts of the mid Missouri Valley into the Upper Midwest late. The risk for severe storms appears low.
Pacific Coastal States
An upper low will drop south toward the coastal Pacific Northwest today as a strong upper speed max noses into central CA by 00Z. This feature will translate southward overnight and into southern CA by 12Z Wed. North of the upper jet, very cold temperatures aloft will exist which will result in a few hundred J/kg SBCAPE despite cool surface conditions. While favorable shear profiles will develop southward through the central valleys, surface temperatures will largely be in the 40s to perhaps lower 50s F, with generally limited heating. Very small hail cannot be ruled out in the strongest convection given long hodographs and such cold temperatures aloft, but severe storms are not currently forecast.
Mid MO Valley / Upper Midwest
A leading shortwave trough will move into the Plains today, with a strong speed max aloft from NM into KS by 00Z. The strongest cooling aloft and lift will occur from NE into the Dakotas, and into western MN/IA be evening. Low pressure will develop into SD during the afternoon, with a cold front pushing toward the mid MO Valley. While surface heating as well as boundary-layer mixing will steepen low-level lapse rates in the veered flow, it appears capping may hold atop the plume of 40s F dewpoints ahead of the wind shift. An isolated thunderstorm cannot totally be ruled out through 00Z, but a greater chance will exist as minimal elevated instability develops near the nose of the 850 mb jet with lift focused across MN and WI. Instability does not appear strong enough to support severe hail with this elevated activity.
..Jewell/Squitieri.. 02/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Wednesday, February 18
Outlook Summary
Widely scattered areas of low probabilistic potential for thunderstorm development may evolve across the U.S. Wednesday through Wednesday night, but any storms that do form are expected to remain generally weak.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 170549
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Widely scattered areas of low probabilistic potential for thunderstorm development may evolve across the U.S. Wednesday through Wednesday night, but any storms that do form are expected to remain generally weak.
Discussion
Notable spread persists within the latest model output concerning short wave (and related lower-level) developments within a cyclonic regime evolving inland of the Pacific coast through the Mississippi Valley by Wednesday.
In general, one initial perturbation and associated surface troughing, pivoting through the Upper Midwest and adjacent Great Lakes region by the beginning of this period, are still forecast to undergo substantive weakening Wednesday through Wednesday night. It is possible that a residual area of lower/mid-tropospheric forcing for ascent, coupled with limited moisture return, may maintain sufficient strength to support continuing convective development capable of producing lightning while spreading through the lower Great Lakes vicinity into the day Wednesday. This seems likely to remain rooted above an initially stable boundary layer, with little risk for severe weather before diminishing.
Upstream, another fairly significant short wave perturbation is forecast to accelerate east-northeast of the southern Sierra Nevada, as another digs toward the Oregon/northern California coast. Beneath strong mid-level cooling, models indicate that boundary-layer warming will probably contribute to weak destabilization supportive of convective development across the eastern Great Basin through the mountains of Colorado and Wyoming during the day. It doesn't seem entirely out of the question that some of this activity may become capable of producing lightning, particularly where surface temperatures are able to warm above freezing. However, this probably will remain very sparse in coverage. Otherwise, thunderstorm probabilities marginally sufficient for a categorical thunderstorm area are likely to linger near Pacific coastal areas, mainly from Oregon into and just south of San Francisco Bay.
It does still appear that the short wave trough emerging from the West will support notable cyclogenesis from the lee of the Colorado Rockies into the central Great Plains late Wednesday through Wednesday night. However, low-level flow, above the boundary-layer, across and east of the southern Great Plains is forecast to maintain a pronounced westerly component through the period. Modest inland moisture return off a gradually modifying Gulf boundary layer appears likely to remain focused east of the lower Mississippi Valley, into the Southeast, around the western periphery of low-level ridging centered over the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes of the western Atlantic. It is possible that a weak mid/upper impulse rapidly progressing eastward across parts of the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians, and/or low-level warm advection farther west into the vicinity of the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers, could support weak thunderstorm development Wednesday night. But, probabilities appear near or below the minimum threshold for a categorical thunder area at the present time.
..Kerr.. 02/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Thursday, February 19
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms with potential to produce a few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts are possible across parts of the middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys Thursday afternoon into early evening.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 170831
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS…SOUTHERN INDIANA…WESTERN/NORTHERN KENTUCKY…AND SOUTHWESTERN OHIO
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms with potential to produce a few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts are possible across parts of the middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys Thursday afternoon into early evening.
Discussion
Considerable spread persists within latest model output concerning short wave developments within the evolving pattern across North America through this period. In general, though, guidance indicates that larger-scale mid-level troughing will slowly begin to shift inland of the Pacific coast Thursday through Thursday night, while being maintained downstream across the Rockies, Great Plains and Mississippi Valley, and slowly developing toward the lower Great Lakes and Appalachians vicinity. The center of a subtropical high is likely to shift from the Gulf Basin into the Bahamas/Caribbean, with its northern periphery maintaining an influence across parts of the Southeast.
One or two short wave perturbations emerging from the Intermountain West may be in the process of progressing into and across the central Great Plains and lower Missouri Valley vicinity at the outset of the period. The lower amplitude lead perturbation may continue into and across the Ohio Valley during the day, as the stronger upstream perturbation pivots across the mid to lower Missouri Valley toward the Great Lakes region. This appears a bit to the north, and at somewhat lower amplitudes, than what prior runs of at least some model output has been indicating. However, this is still likely to be accompanied by a sub-1000 mb surface cyclone, which may undergo one or two periods of additional deepening while migrating northeast of the lower Missouri Valley toward the Great Lakes region Thursday through Thursday night.
Middle Mississippi/Lower Ohio Valley
Latest model output continues to indicate better low-level moisture return (but still marginal for severe convective development) to portions of the warm sector of the developing cyclone as it migrates across and northeast of the lower Missouri Valley Thursday afternoon. It appears that this may include a corridor of mid 50s to near 60F surface dew points advecting northeast and east of the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers. However, it now appears that much of this moistening may occur beneath relatively warm mid/upper levels, associated with subsidence to the south of the upper jet axis.
This is not reflected in the latest RRFS forecast soundings, which indicate rather potent thermodynamic profiles evolving by Thursday afternoon across the lower Ohio Valley vicinity, in terms of both conditional and convective instability. A general consensus of other model output suggests the development of much more modest CAPE. This includes NAM forecast soundings, which depict CAPE at or below 500 J/kg where the low-level moistening occurs, mostly due to low equilibrium levels below the 500 mb level. It remains unclear if this environment will become supportive of convection capable of producing lightning.
Even so, NAM forecast soundings still depict boundary-layer based CAPE supportive of low-topped convection which could acquire supercellular structure in the presence of strong cloud bearing shear. Aided by the evolution of sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs beneath 30-50 kt southerly 850 mb flow, and a relatively moist boundary-layer with steep lapse rates, a few tornadoes appear possible, in addition to small to marginally severe hail. The evolution of a small organizing cluster may still not be out of the question, which probably would be accompanied by better potential for damaging surface gusts.
..Kerr.. 02/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Friday, February 20
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, February 19 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Friday, February 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, February 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, February 22 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, February 23 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 161000 SPC AC 161000
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range guidance indicates that a sub-1000 mb surface cyclone, centered across the central Great Plains at the outset of the period, may undergo a period of further deepening as it migrates across and northeast of the lower Missouri Valley, toward the Great Lakes, late Thursday afternoon or evening. Perhaps most notable, latest model output appears a bit more aggressive than last night concerning a corridor of warm sector moisture return into the vicinity of the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers. It now appears that this may include surface dew points increasing as high as the upper 50s to lower 60s F by around 20/00Z, which may advect at least a bit further east-northeastward through the lower Ohio Valley, before being cut off later Thursday evening. Though still somewhat modest, and perhaps only supportive of CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg, this probably will be conducive to severe thunderstorm development, in the presence of more than sufficient deep-layer shear and large-scale ascent to support organized convection. This may include supercells with potential to produce tornadoes, and perhaps an upscale growing cluster with strong to severe gusts for a period Thursday evening.
It appears that this cyclone will weaken substantively across the Great Lakes region on Friday, with renewed cyclogenesis possible to the east of the Blue Ridge, or perhaps primarily offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast. So, while increasing low-level moisture return may continue into the warm sector across parts of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic, the extent to which mid/upper support remains conducive to severe weather potential remains unclear.
By late this coming weekend into at least next Monday, convective potential appears likely to diminish as large-scale mid/upper ridging expands across and east of the Rockies toward the Atlantic Seaboard.
..Kerr.. 02/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, February 21
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, February 19 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Friday, February 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, February 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, February 22 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, February 23 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 161000 SPC AC 161000
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range guidance indicates that a sub-1000 mb surface cyclone, centered across the central Great Plains at the outset of the period, may undergo a period of further deepening as it migrates across and northeast of the lower Missouri Valley, toward the Great Lakes, late Thursday afternoon or evening. Perhaps most notable, latest model output appears a bit more aggressive than last night concerning a corridor of warm sector moisture return into the vicinity of the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers. It now appears that this may include surface dew points increasing as high as the upper 50s to lower 60s F by around 20/00Z, which may advect at least a bit further east-northeastward through the lower Ohio Valley, before being cut off later Thursday evening. Though still somewhat modest, and perhaps only supportive of CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg, this probably will be conducive to severe thunderstorm development, in the presence of more than sufficient deep-layer shear and large-scale ascent to support organized convection. This may include supercells with potential to produce tornadoes, and perhaps an upscale growing cluster with strong to severe gusts for a period Thursday evening.
It appears that this cyclone will weaken substantively across the Great Lakes region on Friday, with renewed cyclogenesis possible to the east of the Blue Ridge, or perhaps primarily offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast. So, while increasing low-level moisture return may continue into the warm sector across parts of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic, the extent to which mid/upper support remains conducive to severe weather potential remains unclear.
By late this coming weekend into at least next Monday, convective potential appears likely to diminish as large-scale mid/upper ridging expands across and east of the Rockies toward the Atlantic Seaboard.
..Kerr.. 02/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, February 22
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, February 19 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Friday, February 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, February 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, February 22 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, February 23 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 161000 SPC AC 161000
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range guidance indicates that a sub-1000 mb surface cyclone, centered across the central Great Plains at the outset of the period, may undergo a period of further deepening as it migrates across and northeast of the lower Missouri Valley, toward the Great Lakes, late Thursday afternoon or evening. Perhaps most notable, latest model output appears a bit more aggressive than last night concerning a corridor of warm sector moisture return into the vicinity of the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers. It now appears that this may include surface dew points increasing as high as the upper 50s to lower 60s F by around 20/00Z, which may advect at least a bit further east-northeastward through the lower Ohio Valley, before being cut off later Thursday evening. Though still somewhat modest, and perhaps only supportive of CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg, this probably will be conducive to severe thunderstorm development, in the presence of more than sufficient deep-layer shear and large-scale ascent to support organized convection. This may include supercells with potential to produce tornadoes, and perhaps an upscale growing cluster with strong to severe gusts for a period Thursday evening.
It appears that this cyclone will weaken substantively across the Great Lakes region on Friday, with renewed cyclogenesis possible to the east of the Blue Ridge, or perhaps primarily offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast. So, while increasing low-level moisture return may continue into the warm sector across parts of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic, the extent to which mid/upper support remains conducive to severe weather potential remains unclear.
By late this coming weekend into at least next Monday, convective potential appears likely to diminish as large-scale mid/upper ridging expands across and east of the Rockies toward the Atlantic Seaboard.
..Kerr.. 02/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, February 23
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, February 19 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Friday, February 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, February 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, February 22 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, February 23 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 161000 SPC AC 161000
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range guidance indicates that a sub-1000 mb surface cyclone, centered across the central Great Plains at the outset of the period, may undergo a period of further deepening as it migrates across and northeast of the lower Missouri Valley, toward the Great Lakes, late Thursday afternoon or evening. Perhaps most notable, latest model output appears a bit more aggressive than last night concerning a corridor of warm sector moisture return into the vicinity of the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers. It now appears that this may include surface dew points increasing as high as the upper 50s to lower 60s F by around 20/00Z, which may advect at least a bit further east-northeastward through the lower Ohio Valley, before being cut off later Thursday evening. Though still somewhat modest, and perhaps only supportive of CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg, this probably will be conducive to severe thunderstorm development, in the presence of more than sufficient deep-layer shear and large-scale ascent to support organized convection. This may include supercells with potential to produce tornadoes, and perhaps an upscale growing cluster with strong to severe gusts for a period Thursday evening.
It appears that this cyclone will weaken substantively across the Great Lakes region on Friday, with renewed cyclogenesis possible to the east of the Blue Ridge, or perhaps primarily offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast. So, while increasing low-level moisture return may continue into the warm sector across parts of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic, the extent to which mid/upper support remains conducive to severe weather potential remains unclear.
By late this coming weekend into at least next Monday, convective potential appears likely to diminish as large-scale mid/upper ridging expands across and east of the Rockies toward the Atlantic Seaboard.
..Kerr.. 02/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, February 17
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Wednesday, February 18
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Thursday, February 19
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Friday, February 20
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, February 21
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, February 22
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, February 23
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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