Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Sunday, October 11

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts and a tornado or two will be possible today across parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Additional storms with isolated severe gusts will be possible in parts of the Desert Southwest and Four Corners region.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 111243

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Valid 111300Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts and a tornado or two will be possible today across parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Additional storms with isolated severe gusts will be possible in parts of the Desert Southwest and Four Corners region.

Mid-Atlantic

The remnants of Isaias are now a vertically stacked cyclone centered over Middle TN this morning. Warm sector associated with this cyclone is displaced east of the primary cyclone center, and is delineated well by the 64 deg F isodrosotherm. This isodrosotherm currently extends from the southern Delmarva Peninsula southwestward to a triple point low over the TN/NC border and then southward across central/south-central GA and the far eastern FL Panhandle. Moderate low to mid-level southerly/southwesterly flow currently extends throughout the eastern periphery of the cyclone over the warm sector.

Primary core of the cyclone is forecast to progress northeastward across the central Appalachians this afternoon/evening before continuing northeastward across VA to the Mid-Atlantic coast overnight into early tomorrow. The occluded surface and triple point lows associated with this system will shift northeastward as well. This progression will result in northward advection of the warm sector into more of eastern NC and southeast VA while the cold front pushes eastward/northeastward. Abundant cloud cover will limit heating and lapse rates will remain poor, but abundant low-level moisture will still support moderate buoyancy across the warm sector. This buoyancy will support thunderstorm development along and ahead of the cold front as it moves northeastward across the region. Moderate low to mid-level southerly/southwesterly flow will persist across the warm sector, supporting the potential for rotation/organization with any deep and persistent updrafts. As a result, isolated damaging gusts and a few brief tornadoes are possible across the region. The best overlap between buoyancy and shear is expected between 18Z and 00Z from north-central/northeast NC into central/southeast VA.

Desert Southwest/Eastern Great Basin… Remnants of tropical cyclone Rachel are currently centered in the CA/NV/AZ border vicinity, at the base of a broad upper trough covering much of the western CONUS. These remnants are forecast to progress northeastward today, moving quickly through the Great Basin and ending the period over central/eastern MT. At the same time, another cyclone will shift southward across the Pacific Northwest. Dynamic response to this evolution will support a belt of strong mid-level southwesterly flow from southern CA/AZ through WY into the northern High Plains. Low to mid-level moisture associated with the remnants of Rachel will spread northeastward as well.

Persistent large-scale forcing for ascent and the aforementioned moisture will support scattered thunderstorms. Strong low to mid-level southwesterly flow will result in occasionally intense bowing segments capable of strong gusts, particularly in any areas that can experience filtered daytime heating. A low-probability tornado risk will also exist from this morning into the early afternoon across near the surface low over the CA/NV/AZ border intersection vicinity. Here, moist low-level southerly will elongate hodographs (as shown in current ESX VAD), resulting in a kinematic environment supportive of tornadoes. Limited buoyancy should keep any tornado threat isolated and brief.

..Mosier/Wendt.. 10/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

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Outlook for Monday, October 12

Outlook Summary

No severe weather is expected Monday through Monday night.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 110455

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

No severe weather is expected Monday through Monday night.

Synopsis

An upper low initially over the Columbia Basin will develop south to the Sierra Nevada, while an embedded vorticity maximum progresses through the basal portion that feature from central/southern CA through the lower-CO Valley into the Great Basin. Downstream from those developments, a low-amplitude short-wave trough is forecast to translate from the northern or central High Plains into the upper Midwest and neighboring Upper Great Lakes regions by Monday night. At the surface, an area of low pressure initially over central NE will develop along a boundary into southern MN by late afternoon or early evening before reaching central WI Monday night.

### Upper Midwest

A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the region on Monday, atop a moistening boundary layer, yielding a moderately unstable but capped air mass by afternoon along and south of the surface boundary and approaching cyclone. Elevated thunderstorms are expected to develop to the north of the surface warm sector over the northern Plains Monday morning within a zone of forcing for ascent preceding the short-wave trough. That convective regime is expected to spread into portions of MN and WI late Monday afternoon into night, amidst a thermodynamic environment featuring MUCAPE generally less than 1000 J/kg. While a few instances of hail approaching one inch appear possible, larger sizes are expected to be limited by the marginal instability and generally less than 30-35 kt of effective bulk shear.

### Lower Colorado Valley into the Great Basin

Increased forcing for ascent ahead of the vorticity maximum is expected to foster an areal increase in low-topped thunderstorms Monday afternoon, which are likely to continue into Monday night. Generally weak instability should limit severe weather potential; however, in areas where low-level lapse rates can sufficiently steepen, the downward transfer of stronger winds aloft could yield a few gusts approaching 58 mph. Some small hail may also accompany the strongest updrafts.

..Mead.. 10/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, October 13

Outlook Summary

Widely scattered severe storms appear possible over portions of the central and southern High Plains Tuesday afternoon into night. More isolated severe weather may occur into the mid Mississippi Valley, and in parts of the lower Great Lakes.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 110701

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Widely scattered severe storms appear possible over portions of the central and southern High Plains Tuesday afternoon into night. More isolated severe weather may occur into the mid Mississippi Valley, and in parts of the lower Great Lakes.

Synopsis

A midlevel low will slowly progress through the Great Basin with a downstream belt of enhanced, mid/upper-level flow extending from the southern Rockies into the Great Lakes. Within that airstream, a short-wave trough will progress from the Great Lakes into the Northeast, while a more subtle disturbance advances from the central and southern High Plains into the Upper Midwest. At the surface, an area of low pressure associated with the former disturbance mentioned above is expected to develop from lower MI through the northern Mid-Atlantic into New England with a boundary trailing that feature from the southern Great Lakes into the central High Plains, where it will link with a deepening lee cyclone over southeast CO.

### Central and Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley

While midlevel lapse rates are not forecast to be particularly steep, daytime heating combined with boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s is expected to contribute to a moderately unstable warm sector by afternoon. The specific details regarding convective evolution remain uncertain; however, forcing for ascent associated with the midlevel disturbance and convergence in the vicinity of the synoptic front, dryline, and lee cyclone are likely to aid in diurnally enhanced thunderstorm development. Highest confidence in that occurrence remains over portions of southwest KS into the OK and TX Panhandles, where the low-level mass response to the deepening CO low will be the greatest from late afternoon into evening. Vertical shear will be sufficiently strong to support supercells capable of mainly large hail initially. Tornado potential may increase during the evening with any ongoing supercells as the low-level jet strengthens. Upscale growth into one or multiple storm complexes appears possible, at which point, the threat for damaging winds would correspondingly increase.

An areal expansion in level-2/Slight Risk probabilities may be required in later outlooks once finer-scale details become more clear.

### Lower Great Lakes

Showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing Monday morning within a zone of low-level warm advection and moisture transport preceding the surface low and short-wave trough. Clouds and precipitation may linger into afternoon, limiting the destabilization in those areas. However, where stronger heating can occur, the presence of boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s will support at least a marginally unstable environment by afternoon. Both low-level and deep-layer shear will be relatively strong, and on the condition that surface-based storms develop and are sustained, the threat for locally damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two would exist.

..Mead.. 10/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, October 14

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110816 SPC AC 110816

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

A mid/upper-level low is forecast to progress from the eastern Great Basin into the central Rockies on Day 4/Wednesday. By Day 5/Thursday, there is good model consensus in the break-up of the low, with much of it being enveloped by an amplifying polar-branch trough over the north-central CONUS. By Days 6 and 7/ Friday and Saturday, there is general model agreement that a broader-scale trough will spread from the MS Valley toward the Atlantic Coast.

### Day 4/Wednesday

At least isolated severe storms appear most probable over the southern Plains during the afternoon and evening, along and ahead of a surface front extending from the southern High Plains through the mid-MS Valley. The presence of a moist air mass will support moderate instability by afternoon in areas that experience greater daytime heating. Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Wednesday morning within the warm sector, leading to uncertainty in where the effective surface front will be located by afternoon to focus more robust storm development. While no 15% contour will be included in this forecast, at least level-1/Marginal Risk probabilities will likely be required in the subsequent Day 3 forecast for this time period.

Elsewhere, a few strong to severe storms appear possible along the remaining length of the front from the mid-MS Valley into the Mid-Atlantic.

### Day 5/Thursday

Some severe weather threat may materialize from the Ozark Plateau into the OH Valley in the vicinity of a surface low and attending frontal system. However, the potential for early-day storms and model variability in the particular details of the upper-air pattern evolution result in considerable uncertainty in the magnitude of the threat.

### Days 6 to 8/Friday to Sunday

A cold front on the leading edge of a prominent surface high will push through most locations east of the Rockies by Saturday morning. A strong storm or two appears possible along the front in the Mid-Atlantic on Friday. Otherwise, the influx of a drier, continental-polar air mass is expected to limit the threat for severe storms.

..Mead.. 10/11/2026

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Outlook for Thursday, October 15

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110816 SPC AC 110816

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

A mid/upper-level low is forecast to progress from the eastern Great Basin into the central Rockies on Day 4/Wednesday. By Day 5/Thursday, there is good model consensus in the break-up of the low, with much of it being enveloped by an amplifying polar-branch trough over the north-central CONUS. By Days 6 and 7/ Friday and Saturday, there is general model agreement that a broader-scale trough will spread from the MS Valley toward the Atlantic Coast.

### Day 4/Wednesday

At least isolated severe storms appear most probable over the southern Plains during the afternoon and evening, along and ahead of a surface front extending from the southern High Plains through the mid-MS Valley. The presence of a moist air mass will support moderate instability by afternoon in areas that experience greater daytime heating. Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Wednesday morning within the warm sector, leading to uncertainty in where the effective surface front will be located by afternoon to focus more robust storm development. While no 15% contour will be included in this forecast, at least level-1/Marginal Risk probabilities will likely be required in the subsequent Day 3 forecast for this time period.

Elsewhere, a few strong to severe storms appear possible along the remaining length of the front from the mid-MS Valley into the Mid-Atlantic.

### Day 5/Thursday

Some severe weather threat may materialize from the Ozark Plateau into the OH Valley in the vicinity of a surface low and attending frontal system. However, the potential for early-day storms and model variability in the particular details of the upper-air pattern evolution result in considerable uncertainty in the magnitude of the threat.

### Days 6 to 8/Friday to Sunday

A cold front on the leading edge of a prominent surface high will push through most locations east of the Rockies by Saturday morning. A strong storm or two appears possible along the front in the Mid-Atlantic on Friday. Otherwise, the influx of a drier, continental-polar air mass is expected to limit the threat for severe storms.

..Mead.. 10/11/2026

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Outlook for Friday, October 16

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110816 SPC AC 110816

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

A mid/upper-level low is forecast to progress from the eastern Great Basin into the central Rockies on Day 4/Wednesday. By Day 5/Thursday, there is good model consensus in the break-up of the low, with much of it being enveloped by an amplifying polar-branch trough over the north-central CONUS. By Days 6 and 7/ Friday and Saturday, there is general model agreement that a broader-scale trough will spread from the MS Valley toward the Atlantic Coast.

### Day 4/Wednesday

At least isolated severe storms appear most probable over the southern Plains during the afternoon and evening, along and ahead of a surface front extending from the southern High Plains through the mid-MS Valley. The presence of a moist air mass will support moderate instability by afternoon in areas that experience greater daytime heating. Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Wednesday morning within the warm sector, leading to uncertainty in where the effective surface front will be located by afternoon to focus more robust storm development. While no 15% contour will be included in this forecast, at least level-1/Marginal Risk probabilities will likely be required in the subsequent Day 3 forecast for this time period.

Elsewhere, a few strong to severe storms appear possible along the remaining length of the front from the mid-MS Valley into the Mid-Atlantic.

### Day 5/Thursday

Some severe weather threat may materialize from the Ozark Plateau into the OH Valley in the vicinity of a surface low and attending frontal system. However, the potential for early-day storms and model variability in the particular details of the upper-air pattern evolution result in considerable uncertainty in the magnitude of the threat.

### Days 6 to 8/Friday to Sunday

A cold front on the leading edge of a prominent surface high will push through most locations east of the Rockies by Saturday morning. A strong storm or two appears possible along the front in the Mid-Atlantic on Friday. Otherwise, the influx of a drier, continental-polar air mass is expected to limit the threat for severe storms.

..Mead.. 10/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, October 17

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110816 SPC AC 110816

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

A mid/upper-level low is forecast to progress from the eastern Great Basin into the central Rockies on Day 4/Wednesday. By Day 5/Thursday, there is good model consensus in the break-up of the low, with much of it being enveloped by an amplifying polar-branch trough over the north-central CONUS. By Days 6 and 7/ Friday and Saturday, there is general model agreement that a broader-scale trough will spread from the MS Valley toward the Atlantic Coast.

### Day 4/Wednesday

At least isolated severe storms appear most probable over the southern Plains during the afternoon and evening, along and ahead of a surface front extending from the southern High Plains through the mid-MS Valley. The presence of a moist air mass will support moderate instability by afternoon in areas that experience greater daytime heating. Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Wednesday morning within the warm sector, leading to uncertainty in where the effective surface front will be located by afternoon to focus more robust storm development. While no 15% contour will be included in this forecast, at least level-1/Marginal Risk probabilities will likely be required in the subsequent Day 3 forecast for this time period.

Elsewhere, a few strong to severe storms appear possible along the remaining length of the front from the mid-MS Valley into the Mid-Atlantic.

### Day 5/Thursday

Some severe weather threat may materialize from the Ozark Plateau into the OH Valley in the vicinity of a surface low and attending frontal system. However, the potential for early-day storms and model variability in the particular details of the upper-air pattern evolution result in considerable uncertainty in the magnitude of the threat.

### Days 6 to 8/Friday to Sunday

A cold front on the leading edge of a prominent surface high will push through most locations east of the Rockies by Saturday morning. A strong storm or two appears possible along the front in the Mid-Atlantic on Friday. Otherwise, the influx of a drier, continental-polar air mass is expected to limit the threat for severe storms.

..Mead.. 10/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, October 18

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110816 SPC AC 110816

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

A mid/upper-level low is forecast to progress from the eastern Great Basin into the central Rockies on Day 4/Wednesday. By Day 5/Thursday, there is good model consensus in the break-up of the low, with much of it being enveloped by an amplifying polar-branch trough over the north-central CONUS. By Days 6 and 7/ Friday and Saturday, there is general model agreement that a broader-scale trough will spread from the MS Valley toward the Atlantic Coast.

### Day 4/Wednesday

At least isolated severe storms appear most probable over the southern Plains during the afternoon and evening, along and ahead of a surface front extending from the southern High Plains through the mid-MS Valley. The presence of a moist air mass will support moderate instability by afternoon in areas that experience greater daytime heating. Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Wednesday morning within the warm sector, leading to uncertainty in where the effective surface front will be located by afternoon to focus more robust storm development. While no 15% contour will be included in this forecast, at least level-1/Marginal Risk probabilities will likely be required in the subsequent Day 3 forecast for this time period.

Elsewhere, a few strong to severe storms appear possible along the remaining length of the front from the mid-MS Valley into the Mid-Atlantic.

### Day 5/Thursday

Some severe weather threat may materialize from the Ozark Plateau into the OH Valley in the vicinity of a surface low and attending frontal system. However, the potential for early-day storms and model variability in the particular details of the upper-air pattern evolution result in considerable uncertainty in the magnitude of the threat.

### Days 6 to 8/Friday to Sunday

A cold front on the leading edge of a prominent surface high will push through most locations east of the Rockies by Saturday morning. A strong storm or two appears possible along the front in the Mid-Atlantic on Friday. Otherwise, the influx of a drier, continental-polar air mass is expected to limit the threat for severe storms.

..Mead.. 10/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Sunday, October 11

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: low

WIND: 5%

Monday, October 12

TORNADO: low

HAIL: low

WIND: low

Tuesday, October 13

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Wednesday, October 14

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Thursday, October 15

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, October 16

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Saturday, October 17

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Sunday, October 18

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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