Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, October 25
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will remain possible this evening and into the night from New Mexico into Far West Texas and the western Texas Panhandle. Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts as well as a tornado or two are possible in these areas.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 260044
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026
Valid 260100Z - 261200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will remain possible this evening and into the night from New Mexico into Far West Texas and the western Texas Panhandle. Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts as well as a tornado or two are possible in these areas.
01Z Update
Isolated strong thunderstorms continue this evening across portions of southeast New Mexico into portions of Texas Panhandle. Rain-cooled air to the north has reinforced a modest baroclinic zone along and south of Santa Rosa to Tucumcari, NM northeast toward Guymon. Along and south of this boundary, MUCAPE values have risen into in excess of 2000 J/kg, with 35-50 knots of bulk shear analyzed within SPC’s objective analysis routines. A quick examination of a time-lagged HRRR/RRFS ensemble indicates this zone may yet serve as a focus for renewed thunderstorm intensity, particularly across New Mexico, over the next several hours. As such, an isolated tornado or large hail threat will remain with any isolated/discrete thunderstorm along and south of this boundary. Additionally, a few strong wind gusts and perhaps isolated wind damage will be possible with any intense thunderstorm that can develop farther south where low-level lapse rates will remain somewhat steeper for a few more hours as compared to areas farther north.
Elsewhere, a couple of lightning strikes will remain possible along the Pacific Northwest coast, along the east coast of Florida, and the Florida Keys.
..Marsh.. 10/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Monday, October 26
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorm are not expected Monday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 251732
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorm are not expected Monday.
Synopsis
Broad troughing over the western half of the CONUS will continue Monday as the primary shortwave trough, initially over the southern/central High Plains lifts northeast to the Upper Midwest. An intensifying upper-level cyclone and attendant shortwave trough will deepen and spread southeast over the Great Basin and Intermountain West as several weaker perturbations move through the Southwest and southern Plains. A weak surface low will develop and track northeastward into the Midwest with the primary shortwave. A weak lee trough will support modest southerly low-level flow maintaining boundary layer moisture ahead of a slow-moving cold front across the central and southern Plains.
Rio Grande Valley
Modest destabilization is forecast ahead of the weak surface trough/cold front from southwest TX and southern/eastern NM, into portions of the OK/TX Panhandles, and far southwest KS. Surface dewpoints in the mid 50s to near 60 F amid diurnal heating ahead of the front should allow for modest destabilization Monday afternoon. The front and lee trough should serve a focus for convective development, with isolated thunderstorms forecast to toward late afternoon into the evening, with additional warm advection storms possible over the Midwest overnight. Buoyancy should be generally weak (MLCAPE ~500 J/kg) amidst modest mid-level flow and bulk shear (20-25 kt). Locally greater buoyancy and storm coverage across Southwest TX and southern NM could support a stronger storm or two during the afternoon with sporadic damaging gusts or isolated hail not entirely impossible. However, the weak buoyancy along with poor mid-level lapse rates should limit overall storm intensity.
Northern Rockies
The upper cyclone, initially over eastern WA/OR will move into the northern Rockies accompanied by strong westerly flow aloft. Low and mid-level lapse rates should steepen in response to the strong ascent and cooling mid-level temperatures (-20 to -25 C). Despite meager moisture, weak instability may develop across parts of ID in the afternoon supporting isolated thunderstorms. While a stray strong gust or small hail cannot be ruled out owing to the increasingly strong upper-level wind fields, cool surface temperatures and weak buoyancy should preclude any organized severe risk.
..Lyons.. 10/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Tuesday, October 27
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely Tuesday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 251929
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely Tuesday.
Synopsis
An upper-level cyclone over the northern Rockies will gradually weaken as it transitions to an open wave over the northern Plains and southern Canada Tuesday. Broad and weak southwest flow aloft will continue over the Southwest and Plains as ridging builds over the Southeast. A weak surface low and trailing front initially over the central Plains will lift northward slowly with the upper cyclone through the period. Modest southerly low-level flow will support 50s to low 60s F surface dewpoints, sufficient for modest destabilization ahead of the front. Isolated thunderstorms are possible within the broader warm advection regime across parts of the Plains from South TX into the Mid-MO Valley. However, weak instability and vertical shear suggests little, if any, convective organization is likely. This should preclude more than sporadic severe potential.
..Lyons.. 10/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Wednesday, October 28
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, October 30 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, November 1 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250717 SPC AC 250717
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
Generally broad, modest southwesterly mid/upper flow within a lower amplitude upper pattern will overspread much of the central/eastern CONUS through Day 6 or 7/Fri or Sat. Southerly low-level flow will be maintained across the Plains to the MS Valley during this time, supporting increasing boundary layer moisture. Periods of showers and thunderstorms will be possible, but modest instability and weak vertical shear will preclude severe potential.
..Leitman.. 10/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, October 29
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, October 30 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, November 1 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250717 SPC AC 250717
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
Generally broad, modest southwesterly mid/upper flow within a lower amplitude upper pattern will overspread much of the central/eastern CONUS through Day 6 or 7/Fri or Sat. Southerly low-level flow will be maintained across the Plains to the MS Valley during this time, supporting increasing boundary layer moisture. Periods of showers and thunderstorms will be possible, but modest instability and weak vertical shear will preclude severe potential.
..Leitman.. 10/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, October 30
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, October 30 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, November 1 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250717 SPC AC 250717
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
Generally broad, modest southwesterly mid/upper flow within a lower amplitude upper pattern will overspread much of the central/eastern CONUS through Day 6 or 7/Fri or Sat. Southerly low-level flow will be maintained across the Plains to the MS Valley during this time, supporting increasing boundary layer moisture. Periods of showers and thunderstorms will be possible, but modest instability and weak vertical shear will preclude severe potential.
..Leitman.. 10/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, October 31
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, October 30 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, November 1 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250717 SPC AC 250717
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
Generally broad, modest southwesterly mid/upper flow within a lower amplitude upper pattern will overspread much of the central/eastern CONUS through Day 6 or 7/Fri or Sat. Southerly low-level flow will be maintained across the Plains to the MS Valley during this time, supporting increasing boundary layer moisture. Periods of showers and thunderstorms will be possible, but modest instability and weak vertical shear will preclude severe potential.
..Leitman.. 10/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, November 1
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, October 30 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, November 1 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250717 SPC AC 250717
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
Generally broad, modest southwesterly mid/upper flow within a lower amplitude upper pattern will overspread much of the central/eastern CONUS through Day 6 or 7/Fri or Sat. Southerly low-level flow will be maintained across the Plains to the MS Valley during this time, supporting increasing boundary layer moisture. Periods of showers and thunderstorms will be possible, but modest instability and weak vertical shear will preclude severe potential.
..Leitman.. 10/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, October 25
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Monday, October 26
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, October 27
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Wednesday, October 28
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, October 29
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, October 30
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, October 31
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, November 1
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Your Severe Outlook
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