Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Monday, February 16

Tuesday, February 17

Wednesday, February 18

Thursday, February 19

Friday, February 20

Saturday, February 21

Sunday, February 22

Outlook for Monday, February 16

Outlook Summary

Strong thunderstorms may impact the coastal areas of central and southern California this afternoon and evening. These storms may produce locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 5%

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 160551

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL COUNTIES

### SUMMARY

Strong thunderstorms may impact the coastal areas of central and southern California this afternoon and evening. These storms may produce locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado.

Coastal central into southern CA

A potent upper trough will move across CA during the afternoon and evening, with a 100+ kt midlevel jet nosing across southern CA. At the surface, low pressure will deepen as it moves into central CA, with a cold front affecting much of the coastline after 18Z. Strong wind convergence along the front will result in a line of shallow convection, with embedded thunderstorms possible. This line is likely to affect the central coastline by around 18Z, and through the remainder of southern CA by 00Z. Strong wind gusts will be likely, with a few locations possibly reaching over 50 kt. Weak instability and cool surface temperatures will be mitigating factors to tornado risk, however, embedded circulations within the line cannot be ruled out.

Interior Valleys

It appears substantial precipitation will hamper heating/destabilization for much of the day, with very little SBCAPE evident on various model forecast soundings. As such, despite model low-level warm advection with veering winds with height, it appears lapses rates may not quite favor severe convection, and the low probabilities have been removed.

Coastal southwest OR and northern CA…Late

Overnight, an upper trough will dive southward just off the Pacific Northwest, with the left-exit region of the upper jet pushing into northern CA early Tuesday morning. While surface temperatures will be cool and in the 40s F in the wake of the earlier wave, this secondary trough will bring cold temperatures aloft with and 500 mb temperatures to around -35 C. As such, SBCAPE of a few hundred J/kg will exist as the cold front moves across the coastal counties. Low-topped convection may produce graupel, along with locally strong wind gusts.

..Jewell/Squitieri.. 02/16/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, February 17

Outlook Summary

Scattered thunderstorm activity is possible across Pacific coastal areas and the Central Valley of California Tuesday into Tuesday night, as well as across parts of the mid Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest Tuesday night. However, the risk for severe storms appears low.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 160554

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Scattered thunderstorm activity is possible across Pacific coastal areas and the Central Valley of California Tuesday into Tuesday night, as well as across parts of the mid Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest Tuesday night. However, the risk for severe storms appears low.

Discussion

Models continue to indicate that a lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone will weaken while migrating inland of the Pacific Northwest coast Tuesday. However, an initially intense offshore jet is forecast to continue digging south-southeastward across California coastal areas to the south of San Francisco Bay, toward the lower Colorado Valley through late Tuesday night, contributing to the maintenance of amplified larger-scale troughing across and inland of the U.S. Pacific Coast.

Downstream, a broad swath of seasonably strong west-southwesterly mid/upper flow is forecast to continue developing east of the southern Rockies, across the south central Great Plains and Ohio Valley, as the remnants of preceding inland migrating troughing pivot across the northern Rockies and much of the middle/lower Missouri Valley into the Upper Midwest by late Tuesday night. Models continue to indicate that initially deep surface troughing accompanying this perturbation will begin to slowly weaken, but a broad belt of strong southwesterly low-level flow (including 40-50 kt around 850 mb) may be maintained while spreading from the central/southern Great Plains into the Ohio Valley by 12Z Wednesday.

To the west/northwest of the low-level jet axis, a plume of rather modest low-level moisture, including surface dew points in the mid 40s to lower/mid 50s F, may advect from parts of the central Great Plains across and northeast of the lower/mid Missouri Valley, beneath a warm/dry elevated mixed-layer initially overspreading much of the central and southern Great Plains through middle and lower Mississippi Valley. However, substantive Gulf boundary-layer modification and inland return flow still appears unlikely through this period and beyond.

Pacific Coast

Low probabilities for thunderstorm activity may linger into early Tuesday nearly southern California coastal areas. However, the primary convective potential, including scattered thunderstorm development, seems likely to become focused across northern and central California coastal areas into the Central Valley Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. This will accompany strong mid-level cooling and forcing for ascent associated with the digging mid/upper jet, which may provide support for stronger cells becoming capable of producing gusty winds and small hail, particularly near coastal areas around San Francisco Bay as early as midday Tuesday. It still appears that the lack of steeper lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, and more substantive CAPE, may minimize the potential for storms to reach severe criteria, but this will continue to be monitored in later outlooks for this period.

Mid Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest

Given at least limited low-level moisture return, it still appears that forcing for ascent may contribute to a corridor of thunderstorm development as strong mid-level height falls overspread the region late Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. Based on the latest forecast soundings and other model output, the potential for severe hail and strong surface gusts still appears rather low, but perhaps not entirely out of the question. This will continue to be monitored in later outlook updates for this period.

..Kerr.. 02/16/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, February 18

Outlook Summary

The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Wednesday through Wednesday night, with probabilities for thunderstorm development generally low.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 160811

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Wednesday through Wednesday night, with probabilities for thunderstorm development generally low.

Discussion

An initial mid-level perturbation and associated surface troughing pivoting through the Upper Midwest and adjacent Great Lakes region by the beginning of this period are forecast to undergo substantive weakening Wednesday through Wednesday night. It is possible that a residual area of lower/mid-tropospheric forcing for ascent, coupled with limited moisture return, may maintain sufficient strength to support continuing convective development capable of producing lightning while spreading through the lower Great Lakes vicinity into the day Wednesday. However, this potential is not readily evident in available NAM forecast soundings, and thunderstorm probabilities are probably near the minimum 10 percent threshold for a categorical thunder area.

Upstream, substantive spread is evident in the latest model output concerning short wave developments within amplified mid/upper troughing near the Pacific coast. It does appear that one emerging perturbation may support notable cyclogenesis from the lee of the Colorado Rockies into the central Great Plains late Wednesday through Wednesday night. However, modest inland moisture return off a gradually modifying Gulf boundary layer is generally forecast to be focused east of the lower Mississippi Valley, into the Southeast, within a broad belt of south to southwesterly flow around low-level ridging centered over the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes of the western Atlantic.

..Kerr.. 02/16/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Thursday, February 19

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, February 18	low / uncertain
Day 5	Thursday, February 19	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, February 20	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, February 21	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, February 22	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 151000 SPC AC 151000

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range model output suggests that amplified large-scale troughing, initially centered near the Pacific coast at the outset of the period, will gradually develop eastward, across and east of the Rockies during the latter half of the week into next weekend. It appears that this will occur in generally piecemeal fashion, as a series of smaller-scale/lower amplitude perturbations. However, given the presence of an initially seasonably warm environment to the lee of the Rockies, potential exists for periodic lee surface cyclogenesis, possible strong.

To this point, guidance has exhibited rather poor predictability with these features, but there does appear at least somewhat greater certainty in potential for substantive surface cyclogenesis by Thursday, across the central Great Plains toward the Great Lakes region. Even so, it still appears that preceding Gulf boundary-layer moistening and inland return flow will only support limited moistening within the developing warm sector across the middle Mississippi Valley through much of the day Thursday. By Thursday night, there are indications that a modest late moisture surge into the lower Ohio Valley could contribute to increasing convective potential, but the extent of the severe threat remains unclear at this time.

Guidance still indicates that better low-level moisture return may commence ahead of the cold front trailing the cyclone, across parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys through Ark-La-Tex and southern Great Plains Friday into Saturday, as upstream perturbations begin to emerge from the West. However, current model output suggests that renewed cyclogenesis may be more subdued, and it is possible that convection may tend to develop and train along and to the cool side of the front and/or outflow, with uncertain severe weather potential.

..Kerr.. 02/15/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Friday, February 20

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, February 18	low / uncertain
Day 5	Thursday, February 19	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, February 20	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, February 21	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, February 22	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 151000 SPC AC 151000

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range model output suggests that amplified large-scale troughing, initially centered near the Pacific coast at the outset of the period, will gradually develop eastward, across and east of the Rockies during the latter half of the week into next weekend. It appears that this will occur in generally piecemeal fashion, as a series of smaller-scale/lower amplitude perturbations. However, given the presence of an initially seasonably warm environment to the lee of the Rockies, potential exists for periodic lee surface cyclogenesis, possible strong.

To this point, guidance has exhibited rather poor predictability with these features, but there does appear at least somewhat greater certainty in potential for substantive surface cyclogenesis by Thursday, across the central Great Plains toward the Great Lakes region. Even so, it still appears that preceding Gulf boundary-layer moistening and inland return flow will only support limited moistening within the developing warm sector across the middle Mississippi Valley through much of the day Thursday. By Thursday night, there are indications that a modest late moisture surge into the lower Ohio Valley could contribute to increasing convective potential, but the extent of the severe threat remains unclear at this time.

Guidance still indicates that better low-level moisture return may commence ahead of the cold front trailing the cyclone, across parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys through Ark-La-Tex and southern Great Plains Friday into Saturday, as upstream perturbations begin to emerge from the West. However, current model output suggests that renewed cyclogenesis may be more subdued, and it is possible that convection may tend to develop and train along and to the cool side of the front and/or outflow, with uncertain severe weather potential.

..Kerr.. 02/15/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Saturday, February 21

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, February 18	low / uncertain
Day 5	Thursday, February 19	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, February 20	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, February 21	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, February 22	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 151000 SPC AC 151000

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range model output suggests that amplified large-scale troughing, initially centered near the Pacific coast at the outset of the period, will gradually develop eastward, across and east of the Rockies during the latter half of the week into next weekend. It appears that this will occur in generally piecemeal fashion, as a series of smaller-scale/lower amplitude perturbations. However, given the presence of an initially seasonably warm environment to the lee of the Rockies, potential exists for periodic lee surface cyclogenesis, possible strong.

To this point, guidance has exhibited rather poor predictability with these features, but there does appear at least somewhat greater certainty in potential for substantive surface cyclogenesis by Thursday, across the central Great Plains toward the Great Lakes region. Even so, it still appears that preceding Gulf boundary-layer moistening and inland return flow will only support limited moistening within the developing warm sector across the middle Mississippi Valley through much of the day Thursday. By Thursday night, there are indications that a modest late moisture surge into the lower Ohio Valley could contribute to increasing convective potential, but the extent of the severe threat remains unclear at this time.

Guidance still indicates that better low-level moisture return may commence ahead of the cold front trailing the cyclone, across parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys through Ark-La-Tex and southern Great Plains Friday into Saturday, as upstream perturbations begin to emerge from the West. However, current model output suggests that renewed cyclogenesis may be more subdued, and it is possible that convection may tend to develop and train along and to the cool side of the front and/or outflow, with uncertain severe weather potential.

..Kerr.. 02/15/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Sunday, February 22

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, February 18	low / uncertain
Day 5	Thursday, February 19	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, February 20	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, February 21	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, February 22	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 151000 SPC AC 151000

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range model output suggests that amplified large-scale troughing, initially centered near the Pacific coast at the outset of the period, will gradually develop eastward, across and east of the Rockies during the latter half of the week into next weekend. It appears that this will occur in generally piecemeal fashion, as a series of smaller-scale/lower amplitude perturbations. However, given the presence of an initially seasonably warm environment to the lee of the Rockies, potential exists for periodic lee surface cyclogenesis, possible strong.

To this point, guidance has exhibited rather poor predictability with these features, but there does appear at least somewhat greater certainty in potential for substantive surface cyclogenesis by Thursday, across the central Great Plains toward the Great Lakes region. Even so, it still appears that preceding Gulf boundary-layer moistening and inland return flow will only support limited moistening within the developing warm sector across the middle Mississippi Valley through much of the day Thursday. By Thursday night, there are indications that a modest late moisture surge into the lower Ohio Valley could contribute to increasing convective potential, but the extent of the severe threat remains unclear at this time.

Guidance still indicates that better low-level moisture return may commence ahead of the cold front trailing the cyclone, across parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys through Ark-La-Tex and southern Great Plains Friday into Saturday, as upstream perturbations begin to emerge from the West. However, current model output suggests that renewed cyclogenesis may be more subdued, and it is possible that convection may tend to develop and train along and to the cool side of the front and/or outflow, with uncertain severe weather potential.

..Kerr.. 02/15/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

National Risk Overview

Monday, February 16: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: low; WIND: 5%
Tuesday, February 17: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Wednesday, February 18: ANY SEVERE: low
Thursday, February 19: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, February 20: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, February 21: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, February 22: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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