Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, May 29
Outlook Summary
Scattered strong to severe storms capable of sporadic large hail and scattered severe winds are expected this afternoon and evening across portions of western Texas. More isolated severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the central High Plains, southern Utah, and the northern Rockies.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 291241
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026
Valid 291300Z - 301200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEST TEXAS INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
### SUMMARY
Scattered strong to severe storms capable of sporadic large hail and scattered severe winds are expected this afternoon and evening across portions of western Texas. More isolated severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the central High Plains, southern Utah, and the northern Rockies.
Southern Plains and central High Plains
Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level low migrating eastward across the Mojave Desert towards the southern Great Basin. A 90-kt 250-mb sub-tropical jet over Baja and Sonora Mexico will progress eastward into the southern High Plains by this afternoon. The nose of this speed max will overspread a moist sector east of a dryline where severe thunderstorm development is forecast later this afternoon/evening. Farther north, a modestly deepening lee trough will focus storm initiation over the central High Plains.
Despite some mid and high-level clouds, model guidance shows strong heating this afternoon and erosion of appreciable convective inhibition by mid afternoon. A mid-level disturbance implied in satellite imagery this morning over central NM will move northeast into western KS and the TX Panhandle by early evening. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop near the dryline/lee trough. Forecast hodographs show some elongation across west TX due to the nose the upper speed max. Have included 15-percent hail probabilities where supercell development appears greatest [due in part to more favorable hodographs and within the northern rim of richer moisture sampled by the 12 UTC Del Rio, TX raob (17.3 g/kg mean mixing ratio)]. Large hail (1.5 to 2.5 inches in diameter) will be possible with the supercells. Severe gusts are forecast to become more prevalent during the evening as mergers and outflow consolidate into a few linear clusters. Severe gusts of 60-80 mph are possible as this activity shifts eastward into the Low Rolling Plains and southwest OK during the evening.
Through the late evening, isentropic ascent near the terminus of the nocturnal jet may support elevated, loosely organized convection across portions of northwest OK and western KS. Isolated hail/wind may accompany the stronger storms over the central High Plains into central OK where storm coverage will probably remain isolated.
Northern Rockies/Montana
Diurnally-driven orographic ascent within the terrain of northern ID and southwest MT will likely support isolated thunderstorm development by late afternoon given weak capping and northward advection of steep mid-level lapse rates. Residual low-level moisture across north-central MT (dewpoints in the upper 40s to low 50s) coupled with 30-35 knot southerly mid-level flow will likely promote intensification and some degree of organization (possibly into transient supercells and/or organized bands) through the early evening hours. Sporadic large hail and severe gusts appear possible with the most intense convection as it spreads north towards the Canadian border.
Southern Utah
A few high-based storms developing within a deeply mixed boundary layer (inverted-V profile) may yield an isolated risk for severe gusts (60-70 mph).
..Smith/Kerr.. 05/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Saturday, May 30
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected on Saturday from parts of western and central Nebraska into southern and western South Dakota. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible in the northern High Plains, and from parts of the central Plains into the southern High Plains.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 290557
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected on Saturday from parts of western and central Nebraska into southern and western South Dakota. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible in the northern High Plains, and from parts of the central Plains into the southern High Plains.
Western and Central Nebraska/Southern and Western South Dakota/Eastern Wyoming/Northeast Colorado/Southeast Montana
At mid-levels, a low will remain over southwestern Wyoming on Saturday, as a shortwave trough moves into the central High Plains. At the surface, a trough will deepen over the central and northern High Plains. Surface winds will be from a southeasterly direction over much of Nebraska and South Dakota, which will result in moisture advection throughout the day. By afternoon, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to moderate instability over much of the central Plains extending northwestward into the northern High Plains. Low-level convergence is forecast to become maximized near a well-developed dryline. In response, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop near the dryline in the afternoon and move north and northeastward across western and central Nebraska into southern South Dakota.
To the east of the dryline and near the moist axis, MLCAPE is forecast to increase into the 1500 to 3000 J/kg range by late afternoon. Forecast soundings at 00Z in west-central Nebraska suggest that 0-6 km shear will be in the 30 to 40 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates around 8 C/km. This will be favorable for supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts. The severe threat is expected to persist into the mid to late evening, as a cluster of strong to severe storms moves northeastward across central Nebraska and south-central South Dakota. Widely-spaced severe thunderstorms will also be possible across parts of southeast Montana, but instability is forecast to be weaker which will keep any severe threat more localized.
Kansas/Oklahoma/West Texas
West-southwesterly mid-level flow will be located over much of the south-central U.S. on Saturday. At the surface, a sharply defined dryline is forecast to be located from central Kansas south-southwestward into western Oklahoma and west-central Texas. To the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon. Along and to the east of much of the dryline, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 30 to 40 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This environment will support an isolated severe threat. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary hazards. Forcing is expected to be relatively weak which will keep storm coverage isolated.
..Broyles.. 05/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Sunday, May 31
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible on Sunday from parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley into the central and northern Plains.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 290724
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible on Sunday from parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley into the central and northern Plains.
Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/Central and Northern Plains
A mid-level shortwave trough will move northward across the north-central U.S. on Sunday, as flow in its wake remains from the west-southwest. At the surface, a mesolow is forecast to develop over southern South Dakota as a dryline sharpens over western Kansas and western Nebraska. A broad moist sector will be in place from the dryline eastward to near the Mississippi River. Across much of this moist airmass, moderate to strong instability is expected to develop by afternoon. Thunderstorms will be possible along low-level convergence zones that setup in the afternoon. However, convective coverage should remain isolated due to rising mid-level heights associated with a ridge aloft. In spite of the weak forcing, the environment will support an isolated severe threat with cells that can initiate and persist. A few severe wind gusts and hail will be the primary threats.
..Broyles.. 05/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Monday, June 1
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, June 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, June 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, June 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, June 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, June 5 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290826 SPC AC 290826
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6
At mid-levels, a ridge is forecast to move from the north-central U.S. on Monday into the Great Lakes by Wednesday, as a shortwave trough moves slowly eastward from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. In the vicinity of the ridge on Monday, an axis of moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop. In spite of limited forcing, isolated severe storms may form on Monday afternoon over parts of the north-central U.S., mainly in areas where low-level convergence becomes maximized. On Tuesday, isolated severe storms will be possible ahead of the approaching trough along a north-to-south corridor of instability in the Dakotas and Nebraska. Storms will again be possible ahead of the trough in the upper Mississippi and mid Missouri Valleys on Wednesday. The primary threats would be isolated severe gusts and hail.
Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8
The mid-level trough is forecast to move into the Great Lakes on Thursday and into the Northeast on Friday, as another trough moves into the central U.S. Ahead of this second trough, isolated severe storms will be possible on Thursday and Friday in parts of the central and northern Plains. A few of the stronger storms could be associated with severe wind gusts and hail.
..Broyles.. 05/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, June 2
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, June 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, June 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, June 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, June 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, June 5 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290826 SPC AC 290826
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6
At mid-levels, a ridge is forecast to move from the north-central U.S. on Monday into the Great Lakes by Wednesday, as a shortwave trough moves slowly eastward from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. In the vicinity of the ridge on Monday, an axis of moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop. In spite of limited forcing, isolated severe storms may form on Monday afternoon over parts of the north-central U.S., mainly in areas where low-level convergence becomes maximized. On Tuesday, isolated severe storms will be possible ahead of the approaching trough along a north-to-south corridor of instability in the Dakotas and Nebraska. Storms will again be possible ahead of the trough in the upper Mississippi and mid Missouri Valleys on Wednesday. The primary threats would be isolated severe gusts and hail.
Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8
The mid-level trough is forecast to move into the Great Lakes on Thursday and into the Northeast on Friday, as another trough moves into the central U.S. Ahead of this second trough, isolated severe storms will be possible on Thursday and Friday in parts of the central and northern Plains. A few of the stronger storms could be associated with severe wind gusts and hail.
..Broyles.. 05/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, June 3
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, June 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, June 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, June 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, June 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, June 5 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290826 SPC AC 290826
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6
At mid-levels, a ridge is forecast to move from the north-central U.S. on Monday into the Great Lakes by Wednesday, as a shortwave trough moves slowly eastward from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. In the vicinity of the ridge on Monday, an axis of moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop. In spite of limited forcing, isolated severe storms may form on Monday afternoon over parts of the north-central U.S., mainly in areas where low-level convergence becomes maximized. On Tuesday, isolated severe storms will be possible ahead of the approaching trough along a north-to-south corridor of instability in the Dakotas and Nebraska. Storms will again be possible ahead of the trough in the upper Mississippi and mid Missouri Valleys on Wednesday. The primary threats would be isolated severe gusts and hail.
Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8
The mid-level trough is forecast to move into the Great Lakes on Thursday and into the Northeast on Friday, as another trough moves into the central U.S. Ahead of this second trough, isolated severe storms will be possible on Thursday and Friday in parts of the central and northern Plains. A few of the stronger storms could be associated with severe wind gusts and hail.
..Broyles.. 05/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, June 4
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, June 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, June 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, June 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, June 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, June 5 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290826 SPC AC 290826
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6
At mid-levels, a ridge is forecast to move from the north-central U.S. on Monday into the Great Lakes by Wednesday, as a shortwave trough moves slowly eastward from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. In the vicinity of the ridge on Monday, an axis of moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop. In spite of limited forcing, isolated severe storms may form on Monday afternoon over parts of the north-central U.S., mainly in areas where low-level convergence becomes maximized. On Tuesday, isolated severe storms will be possible ahead of the approaching trough along a north-to-south corridor of instability in the Dakotas and Nebraska. Storms will again be possible ahead of the trough in the upper Mississippi and mid Missouri Valleys on Wednesday. The primary threats would be isolated severe gusts and hail.
Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8
The mid-level trough is forecast to move into the Great Lakes on Thursday and into the Northeast on Friday, as another trough moves into the central U.S. Ahead of this second trough, isolated severe storms will be possible on Thursday and Friday in parts of the central and northern Plains. A few of the stronger storms could be associated with severe wind gusts and hail.
..Broyles.. 05/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, June 5
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, June 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, June 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, June 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, June 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, June 5 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290826 SPC AC 290826
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6
At mid-levels, a ridge is forecast to move from the north-central U.S. on Monday into the Great Lakes by Wednesday, as a shortwave trough moves slowly eastward from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. In the vicinity of the ridge on Monday, an axis of moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop. In spite of limited forcing, isolated severe storms may form on Monday afternoon over parts of the north-central U.S., mainly in areas where low-level convergence becomes maximized. On Tuesday, isolated severe storms will be possible ahead of the approaching trough along a north-to-south corridor of instability in the Dakotas and Nebraska. Storms will again be possible ahead of the trough in the upper Mississippi and mid Missouri Valleys on Wednesday. The primary threats would be isolated severe gusts and hail.
Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8
The mid-level trough is forecast to move into the Great Lakes on Thursday and into the Northeast on Friday, as another trough moves into the central U.S. Ahead of this second trough, isolated severe storms will be possible on Thursday and Friday in parts of the central and northern Plains. A few of the stronger storms could be associated with severe wind gusts and hail.
..Broyles.. 05/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, May 29
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Saturday, May 30
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Sunday, May 31
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Monday, June 1
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, June 2
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, June 3
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, June 4
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, June 5
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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