Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, October 12
Outlook Summary
Organized severe weather is not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 121948
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026
Valid 122000Z - 131200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Organized severe weather is not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight.
20Z Update
The forecast remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. In central KS, a couple of strong storms capable of producing strong wind gusts and small hail will be possible along/immediately ahead of a cold front early tonight, given an elongated hodograph (around 40 kt of effective shear) and weak buoyancy. However, the expected late timing of convective initiation and dry air/subsidence aloft should tend to limit updraft strength and the severe risk.
..Weinman.. 10/12/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026/
Synopsis
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a large-scale trough over the West. A lead shortwave disturbance over the Dakotas will move east into the Upper Great Lakes by late tonight. Strengthening low-level warm-air advection immediately ahead of a surface low will favor scattered thunderstorms developing this evening over parts of the Upper Great Lakes and moving into northern MI overnight. Although cloud-bearing shear will be strong, limited elevated buoyancy will likely limit updraft strength and a corresponding small hail risk with the strongest storms.
Moist and moderately strong southwesterly flow aloft will persist throughout the eastern periphery of the western CONUS troughing, aiding in the development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Weak buoyancy should temper overall storm strength, although a strong gust or two is possible.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Tuesday, October 13
Outlook Summary
Widely scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds appear possible over portions of the central and southern Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley Tuesday afternoon into night. More isolated severe weather may occur from southwest Texas into the mid Mississippi Valley, and in parts of New York.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 121658
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Widely scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds appear possible over portions of the central and southern Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley Tuesday afternoon into night. More isolated severe weather may occur from southwest Texas into the mid Mississippi Valley, and in parts of New York.
Central/Southern Plains to Mid-MS Valley
An upper low and attendant trough will migrate east across the Southwest on Tuesday, allowing a band of enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow to overspread the region. At the surface, a weak lee low and surface trough will develop from western KS through far west TX. Meanwhile, a surface cold front will extend from the Upper Midwest southwestward through northern KS. This boundary will sag south and east through the period. Southerly low-level flow across the warm sector between these features will maintain mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints across much of the southern Plains into KS and the Lower MO Valley. While midlevel lapse rates are expected to remain modest across the Plains, heating into the mid 80s to low 90s will support moderate destabilization of the very moist airmass, with MLCAPE of 1250-2000 J/kg common from parts of northwest TX into the Lower MO Valley.
Capping is expected to erode by mid to late afternoon, and isolated to scattered convection is expected by 00z near the triple point and northeast along the cold front into the Lower MO Valley. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop near the surface trough across portions of western TX during the evening as a southwesterly low-level jet strengthens. Vertically veering wind profiles and 40+ kt effective shear magnitudes will support initial supercells capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts. Where low-level SRH is maximized near the triple point and surface front, a tornado or two also could occur. As the low-level jet increases and expands northward overnight, additional thunderstorm development is expected along and north of the surface front from the Lower MO Valley into northern IL. This activity may tend to be elevated on the cool side of the surface boundary and pose a risk for marginal hail and gusty winds. If convection along the surface can maintain near-surface based character, damaging wind potential could be greater across parts of MO/IL, but this scenario is uncertain.
Western NY
An upper shortwave trough will shift east from the Upper Great Lakes to the Northeast on Tuesday. Deep-layer westerly flow will increase across the Lower Great Lakes vicinity as this occurs, and a surface low will spread eastward across the region. Ahead of an eastward-developing cold front, low to mid 60s F surface dewpoints are forecast. While a moist airmass will reside across the region, early day clouds and showers/thunderstorms will result in questionable destabilization during the afternoon. If sufficient destabilization can occur, a few strong thunderstorms could develop within the moist and strongly sheared environment, posing a risk of locally gusty winds.
..Leitman.. 10/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Wednesday, October 14
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 121904
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OZARKS
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Southern Plains to the Ozark Plateau
Enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will persist across the region as an upper low develops east/northeast from the Southwest to the central High Plains on Wednesday. Surface high pressure is forecast to build eastward from the northern Plains to the Great Lakes as a surface cold front sags southward from the Ohio Valley into the southern Plains. Ahead of this boundary, rich boundary layer moisture will be in place, characterized by surface dewpoint in the mid 60s to mid 70s F. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning in the vicinity of the surface front, and some downstream cloudiness will likely limit stronger heating across portions of the warm sector. Nevertheless, pockets of moderate instability are expected to develop from west TX toward the Ozark Plateau. As vertical shear and large-scale ascent increase during the afternoon, isolated strong to severe storms may develop within these pockets of stronger heating and destabilization as the surface front sags southward.
Ohio Valley
A moist airmass will be in place ahead of a southward-sagging cold front. Stronger vertical shear and any appreciable large-scale forcing will remain displaced from the warm sector across the Lower OH Valley. Modest destabilization will support widely scattered thunderstorm develop from the Mid-South into southern OH and parts of KY through early evening. However, severe potential is more uncertain, compared to portions of the Plains/Ozarks, with northeast extent along the surface boundary given poor lapse rates, weaker vertical shear and nebulous large-scale ascent.
..Leitman.. 10/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Thursday, October 15
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, October 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, October 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, October 17 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, October 18 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, October 19 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120825 SPC AC 120825
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
A short-wave trough over central Canada on Day 4/Thursday morning is forecast to undergo considerable amplification while progressing southeast through the Great Lakes to the Atlantic Coast by Day 5/Friday. That upper-air system will be attended by a surface low, which is expected to develop along a front from the mid-MS Valley through the OH Valley to off the New England coast. Meanwhile, a strong cold front will surge south, reaching the Gulf Coast by Friday night or early Saturday. In its wake, a drier, continental- polar airmass will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Rockies, limiting the threat for severe thunderstorms this weekend into early next week.
Day 4/Thursday and Thursday night
Despite the potential for early-day showers and thunderstorms, a seasonably moist boundary layer is forecast along and to the south of the front and surface low in the mid-MS and OH Valleys. The moisture combined with daytime heating will contribute to at least modest air mass destabilization by afternoon. Both vertical shear and forcing for ascent will strengthen through the period with the approach of the midlevel trough. As such, some severe weather appears possible on Thursday with the threat possibly continuing through Thursday night from the OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. At least level-1/Marginal Risk probabilities may be required in the subsequent Day 3 Outlook for this time period.
### Day 5/Friday
As mentioned above, some severe weather threat could develop over the Mid-Atlantic late Thursday night or Friday morning with additional strong to severe storms possible by afternoon along the front in the southern Mid-Atlantic or Carolinas.
### Days 6 to 8/Saturday to Monday
No severe weather is currently expected.
..Mead.. 10/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, October 16
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, October 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, October 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, October 17 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, October 18 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, October 19 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120825 SPC AC 120825
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
A short-wave trough over central Canada on Day 4/Thursday morning is forecast to undergo considerable amplification while progressing southeast through the Great Lakes to the Atlantic Coast by Day 5/Friday. That upper-air system will be attended by a surface low, which is expected to develop along a front from the mid-MS Valley through the OH Valley to off the New England coast. Meanwhile, a strong cold front will surge south, reaching the Gulf Coast by Friday night or early Saturday. In its wake, a drier, continental- polar airmass will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Rockies, limiting the threat for severe thunderstorms this weekend into early next week.
Day 4/Thursday and Thursday night
Despite the potential for early-day showers and thunderstorms, a seasonably moist boundary layer is forecast along and to the south of the front and surface low in the mid-MS and OH Valleys. The moisture combined with daytime heating will contribute to at least modest air mass destabilization by afternoon. Both vertical shear and forcing for ascent will strengthen through the period with the approach of the midlevel trough. As such, some severe weather appears possible on Thursday with the threat possibly continuing through Thursday night from the OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. At least level-1/Marginal Risk probabilities may be required in the subsequent Day 3 Outlook for this time period.
### Day 5/Friday
As mentioned above, some severe weather threat could develop over the Mid-Atlantic late Thursday night or Friday morning with additional strong to severe storms possible by afternoon along the front in the southern Mid-Atlantic or Carolinas.
### Days 6 to 8/Saturday to Monday
No severe weather is currently expected.
..Mead.. 10/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, October 17
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, October 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, October 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, October 17 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, October 18 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, October 19 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120825 SPC AC 120825
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
A short-wave trough over central Canada on Day 4/Thursday morning is forecast to undergo considerable amplification while progressing southeast through the Great Lakes to the Atlantic Coast by Day 5/Friday. That upper-air system will be attended by a surface low, which is expected to develop along a front from the mid-MS Valley through the OH Valley to off the New England coast. Meanwhile, a strong cold front will surge south, reaching the Gulf Coast by Friday night or early Saturday. In its wake, a drier, continental- polar airmass will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Rockies, limiting the threat for severe thunderstorms this weekend into early next week.
Day 4/Thursday and Thursday night
Despite the potential for early-day showers and thunderstorms, a seasonably moist boundary layer is forecast along and to the south of the front and surface low in the mid-MS and OH Valleys. The moisture combined with daytime heating will contribute to at least modest air mass destabilization by afternoon. Both vertical shear and forcing for ascent will strengthen through the period with the approach of the midlevel trough. As such, some severe weather appears possible on Thursday with the threat possibly continuing through Thursday night from the OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. At least level-1/Marginal Risk probabilities may be required in the subsequent Day 3 Outlook for this time period.
### Day 5/Friday
As mentioned above, some severe weather threat could develop over the Mid-Atlantic late Thursday night or Friday morning with additional strong to severe storms possible by afternoon along the front in the southern Mid-Atlantic or Carolinas.
### Days 6 to 8/Saturday to Monday
No severe weather is currently expected.
..Mead.. 10/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, October 18
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, October 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, October 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, October 17 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, October 18 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, October 19 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120825 SPC AC 120825
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
A short-wave trough over central Canada on Day 4/Thursday morning is forecast to undergo considerable amplification while progressing southeast through the Great Lakes to the Atlantic Coast by Day 5/Friday. That upper-air system will be attended by a surface low, which is expected to develop along a front from the mid-MS Valley through the OH Valley to off the New England coast. Meanwhile, a strong cold front will surge south, reaching the Gulf Coast by Friday night or early Saturday. In its wake, a drier, continental- polar airmass will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Rockies, limiting the threat for severe thunderstorms this weekend into early next week.
Day 4/Thursday and Thursday night
Despite the potential for early-day showers and thunderstorms, a seasonably moist boundary layer is forecast along and to the south of the front and surface low in the mid-MS and OH Valleys. The moisture combined with daytime heating will contribute to at least modest air mass destabilization by afternoon. Both vertical shear and forcing for ascent will strengthen through the period with the approach of the midlevel trough. As such, some severe weather appears possible on Thursday with the threat possibly continuing through Thursday night from the OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. At least level-1/Marginal Risk probabilities may be required in the subsequent Day 3 Outlook for this time period.
### Day 5/Friday
As mentioned above, some severe weather threat could develop over the Mid-Atlantic late Thursday night or Friday morning with additional strong to severe storms possible by afternoon along the front in the southern Mid-Atlantic or Carolinas.
### Days 6 to 8/Saturday to Monday
No severe weather is currently expected.
..Mead.. 10/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, October 19
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, October 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, October 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, October 17 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, October 18 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, October 19 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120825 SPC AC 120825
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
A short-wave trough over central Canada on Day 4/Thursday morning is forecast to undergo considerable amplification while progressing southeast through the Great Lakes to the Atlantic Coast by Day 5/Friday. That upper-air system will be attended by a surface low, which is expected to develop along a front from the mid-MS Valley through the OH Valley to off the New England coast. Meanwhile, a strong cold front will surge south, reaching the Gulf Coast by Friday night or early Saturday. In its wake, a drier, continental- polar airmass will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Rockies, limiting the threat for severe thunderstorms this weekend into early next week.
Day 4/Thursday and Thursday night
Despite the potential for early-day showers and thunderstorms, a seasonably moist boundary layer is forecast along and to the south of the front and surface low in the mid-MS and OH Valleys. The moisture combined with daytime heating will contribute to at least modest air mass destabilization by afternoon. Both vertical shear and forcing for ascent will strengthen through the period with the approach of the midlevel trough. As such, some severe weather appears possible on Thursday with the threat possibly continuing through Thursday night from the OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. At least level-1/Marginal Risk probabilities may be required in the subsequent Day 3 Outlook for this time period.
### Day 5/Friday
As mentioned above, some severe weather threat could develop over the Mid-Atlantic late Thursday night or Friday morning with additional strong to severe storms possible by afternoon along the front in the southern Mid-Atlantic or Carolinas.
### Days 6 to 8/Saturday to Monday
No severe weather is currently expected.
..Mead.. 10/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, October 12
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, October 13
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Wednesday, October 14
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Thursday, October 15
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, October 16
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, October 17
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, October 18
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, October 19
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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