Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, August 19
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and hail remain possible this evening across the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys and southern Arizona. More isolated strong storms are possible through the evening across parts of the central/southern High Plains and parts of the Southeast.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 200100
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026
Valid 200100Z - 201200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and hail remain possible this evening across the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys and southern Arizona. More isolated strong storms are possible through the evening across parts of the central/southern High Plains and parts of the Southeast.
Mid MS Valley to the lower OH Valley. Evening water vapor imagery showed a broad trough and enhanced northwesterly mid-level flow stretching from the southern Dakotas into the mid MS Valley. Downstream of a flattened upper ridge over the Southwest, this trough and stronger flow aloft should continue eastward this evening aiding in thunderstorm development across parts of the Mid MS and lower OH valleys this evening.
Several clusters of storms are already ongoing this evening near a diffuse frontal zone across MO and into southern IL and western KY. As the upper trough approaches, ascent form a 30+ kt southwesterly low-level jet may support an increase in storm coverage, possibly along the flank of the exist cluster in MO and farther south along the frontal zone later this evening. Moderate, and likely somewhat elevated buoyancy (2000-3000 J/kg MUCAPE), and 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear will favor organized clusters or supercell structures. Hail is possible, along with some damaging winds and perhaps a tornado, especially if storms can develop into a more coherent MCS. These storms should spread eastward overnight into the lower OH Valley with a continued severe risk.
Central and southern High Plains
Scattered thunderstorms, including a few supercells are ongoing across the central and southern High Plains within a broad upslope flow regime. Aided by an upper trough with moderate northwesterly flow aloft, organized storms structures capable of large hail should continue along the Foothills and adjacent high plains this evening. Steep lapse rates and large temperature-dew point depressions may also favor a few severe gusts with the more intense cores/clusters that can develop.
AZ
Scattered storms across the higher terrain of southern AZ should continue to move toward the southwest into the Lower Deserts this evening. Adequate monsoon moisture amid very hot temperatures (100 F+) and steep low-level lapse rates will support strong downdrafts with severe gusts of 60-75 mph possible.
Southeast
Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing early this evening from MS into western/southern AL and across the FL Panhandle in association with a weak MCV. A warm boundary layer and seasonably high moisture content should continue to support scattered strong storms through this evening. PWATs over 2 inches will favor strong water-loaded downdrafts with isolated damaging gusts potential. Storms should gradually diminish in coverage and intensity tonight as the boundary layer stabilizes.
..Lyons.. 08/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Thursday, August 20
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe storms are possible Thursday across parts of the Mid Atlantic, posing a risk for damaging wind gusts. Large hail and isolated wind damage will be possible with severe storms from Nebraska into northwest Wisconsin.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 191712
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC…AND PARTS OF NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe storms are possible Thursday across parts of the Mid Atlantic, posing a risk for damaging wind gusts. Large hail and isolated wind damage will be possible with severe storms from Nebraska into northwest Wisconsin.
Mid-Atlantic
A midlevel shortwave impulse is forecast to spread eastward from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic through Thursday evening. This will result in enhanced southwesterly flow atop a very moist boundary layer. Strong heating along/east of a surface trough oriented from northern MD through central VA/NC will support a corridor of moderate destabilization. Thunderstorms are expected to develop near a warm front across southern/central NJ south/southwest along the surface trough into central/eastern VA/NC during the afternoon. Effective shear magnitudes around 40 kt will support organized cells, perhaps becoming linear segments with time. Damaging wind gusts will be possible, supported further by steep low-level lapse rates and high PW values. The strongest cells could also produce hail.
TN Valley/Southeast
A surface tough will extend southwestward from the NC Piedmont into northern MS/central AR Thursday afternoon. A seasonally moist and hot airmass will be in place, fostering moderate to strong instability. Weak convergence along the surface boundary will promote scattered thunderstorm development. Vertical shear will be weak, but thunderstorm clusters could produce damaging outflow gusts with the steep lapse rates/high PW environment. Forecast soundings also show so cooler temperature aloft, and isolated hail could accompany strong storms across parts of northern MS and the TN Valley.
Further south into central/southern AL, southwest GA and the FL Panhandle vicinity, isolated cells are expected within a similar environment, but even weaker deep-layer flow is forecast. Nevertheless, sporadic wet microbursts will be possible, posing a risk for locally damaging gusts.
Central Plains to MN/WI
Northwesterly flow aloft will increase Thursday afternoon into evening. At the surface, weak low pressure will migrate east across northern MN toward the U.P. of MI. As this occurs, a weak surface front will develop southeast across the region. Ahead of this boundary, modest boundary layer moisture will remain in place (generally low to maybe mid-60s F dewpoints). Supercell wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings, with elongated/straight hodographs noted above 2-3 km. Isolated to widely scattered storms will develop by late afternoon/early evening, posing a risk for large hail and locally damaging winds. With southward extent into NE, a narrow corridor may exist for significant hail (greater than 2 inch diameter) given steep midlevel lapse rates/cool temperatures aloft and somewhat higher boundary layer moisture compared to further north.
AZ
Easterly midlevel flow on the southern periphery of an upper anticyclone over the Four Corners will remain in place on Thursday. Modest boundary layer moisture will persist over lower elevations amid the steep lapse rate environment. This will promote MLCAPE around 1000-1250 J/kg. Thunderstorms will develop over higher terrain during the late afternoon. Damaging wind potential will increase as storms consolidate and propagate westward over the lower elevations of central/southern AZ during the evening.
..Leitman.. 08/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Friday, August 21
Outlook Summary
Isolated to scattered damaging hail (some greater than 2 inch diamter) and severe wind gusts may occur over parts of the central Plains late Friday afternoon and evening. Scattered storms, some with severe wind gusts, are possible Friday afternoon over parts of the Carolinas.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 191908
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Isolated to scattered damaging hail (some greater than 2 inch diamter) and severe wind gusts may occur over parts of the central Plains late Friday afternoon and evening. Scattered storms, some with severe wind gusts, are possible Friday afternoon over parts of the Carolinas.
Central Plains
Northwest flow aloft will strengthen further on Friday, with 40-60 kt at 500 mb common across the Mid-MO Valley. At the surface, low pressure will develop along surface troughing across western NE/KS. Rich boundary-layer moisture will be in place across eastern NE/IA and southward across the Lower MO Valley. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will reside across the High Plains and spread eastward toward the MO River during the evening. These steep lapse rates atop the moist boundary layer will support a corridor of strong instability (3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE). Meanwhile, forecast soundings indicate supercell wind profiles with nearly 50 kt effective shear magnitudes and elongated/straight hodographs.
Initial supercells should develop near the surface trough over southwest SD/northwest NE, and shift southeast through evening, posing a risk for large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts. Forecast guidance depicts a 40 kt southwesterly low-level jet developing across KS overnight. This may maintain clusters/promote upscale growth into an MCS during the nighttime hours, spreading southeast toward northwest MO by Saturday morning. If this occurs, damaging wind potential could increase/become the predominant severe hazard overnight.
Additional more isolated storms could develop ahead of a southward-advancing cold front across Iowa overnight. Any storms that develop will likely be elevated, but will form in an environment supporting severe hail.
Southeast
Scattered to numerous storms are forecast within a very moist and unstable environment along a surface trough extending northeast to southwest from NC into GA/southeast AL. Vertical shear is expected to remain very weak. Nevertheless, a mix of single and multi-cell convection will pose a risk for wet microbursts during the afternoon and early evening.
..Leitman.. 08/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Saturday, August 22
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, August 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, August 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, August 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, August 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, August 26 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190828 SPC AC 190828
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
For the Sat/D4 to Wed/D8 period, an upper ridge will persist from the Southern Plains into the Southwest, while various shortwave troughs affect the northern Plains, Great Lakes, and Northeast. The primary trough amplification will occur from the Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes on Sat/D4 into the Northeast through Mon/D6, with moisture and instability supportive of strong storms generally persisting over parts of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic. Shear will remain weak over the East on Sat/D4, with areas of storms producing strong gusts, perhaps marginal/isolated severe. By Sun/D5, strong winds and cooling aloft will move across the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, though antecedent precipitation will affect the warm sector, as will veering low-level winds. Frontal timing will depend on the upper trough speed, and overall predictability is low for Sun/D5.
To the west, daily corridors of thunderstorms are also likely over parts of the central to northern Plains, with northwest flow strongest on Sat/D4 and weakening into D5/D6. At least marginal risk/low probabilities are likely in later outlooks for isolated wind/hail.
..Jewell.. 08/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, August 23
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, August 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, August 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, August 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, August 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, August 26 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190828 SPC AC 190828
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
For the Sat/D4 to Wed/D8 period, an upper ridge will persist from the Southern Plains into the Southwest, while various shortwave troughs affect the northern Plains, Great Lakes, and Northeast. The primary trough amplification will occur from the Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes on Sat/D4 into the Northeast through Mon/D6, with moisture and instability supportive of strong storms generally persisting over parts of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic. Shear will remain weak over the East on Sat/D4, with areas of storms producing strong gusts, perhaps marginal/isolated severe. By Sun/D5, strong winds and cooling aloft will move across the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, though antecedent precipitation will affect the warm sector, as will veering low-level winds. Frontal timing will depend on the upper trough speed, and overall predictability is low for Sun/D5.
To the west, daily corridors of thunderstorms are also likely over parts of the central to northern Plains, with northwest flow strongest on Sat/D4 and weakening into D5/D6. At least marginal risk/low probabilities are likely in later outlooks for isolated wind/hail.
..Jewell.. 08/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, August 24
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, August 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, August 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, August 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, August 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, August 26 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190828 SPC AC 190828
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
For the Sat/D4 to Wed/D8 period, an upper ridge will persist from the Southern Plains into the Southwest, while various shortwave troughs affect the northern Plains, Great Lakes, and Northeast. The primary trough amplification will occur from the Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes on Sat/D4 into the Northeast through Mon/D6, with moisture and instability supportive of strong storms generally persisting over parts of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic. Shear will remain weak over the East on Sat/D4, with areas of storms producing strong gusts, perhaps marginal/isolated severe. By Sun/D5, strong winds and cooling aloft will move across the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, though antecedent precipitation will affect the warm sector, as will veering low-level winds. Frontal timing will depend on the upper trough speed, and overall predictability is low for Sun/D5.
To the west, daily corridors of thunderstorms are also likely over parts of the central to northern Plains, with northwest flow strongest on Sat/D4 and weakening into D5/D6. At least marginal risk/low probabilities are likely in later outlooks for isolated wind/hail.
..Jewell.. 08/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, August 25
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, August 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, August 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, August 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, August 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, August 26 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190828 SPC AC 190828
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
For the Sat/D4 to Wed/D8 period, an upper ridge will persist from the Southern Plains into the Southwest, while various shortwave troughs affect the northern Plains, Great Lakes, and Northeast. The primary trough amplification will occur from the Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes on Sat/D4 into the Northeast through Mon/D6, with moisture and instability supportive of strong storms generally persisting over parts of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic. Shear will remain weak over the East on Sat/D4, with areas of storms producing strong gusts, perhaps marginal/isolated severe. By Sun/D5, strong winds and cooling aloft will move across the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, though antecedent precipitation will affect the warm sector, as will veering low-level winds. Frontal timing will depend on the upper trough speed, and overall predictability is low for Sun/D5.
To the west, daily corridors of thunderstorms are also likely over parts of the central to northern Plains, with northwest flow strongest on Sat/D4 and weakening into D5/D6. At least marginal risk/low probabilities are likely in later outlooks for isolated wind/hail.
..Jewell.. 08/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, August 26
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, August 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, August 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, August 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, August 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, August 26 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190828 SPC AC 190828
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
For the Sat/D4 to Wed/D8 period, an upper ridge will persist from the Southern Plains into the Southwest, while various shortwave troughs affect the northern Plains, Great Lakes, and Northeast. The primary trough amplification will occur from the Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes on Sat/D4 into the Northeast through Mon/D6, with moisture and instability supportive of strong storms generally persisting over parts of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic. Shear will remain weak over the East on Sat/D4, with areas of storms producing strong gusts, perhaps marginal/isolated severe. By Sun/D5, strong winds and cooling aloft will move across the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, though antecedent precipitation will affect the warm sector, as will veering low-level winds. Frontal timing will depend on the upper trough speed, and overall predictability is low for Sun/D5.
To the west, daily corridors of thunderstorms are also likely over parts of the central to northern Plains, with northwest flow strongest on Sat/D4 and weakening into D5/D6. At least marginal risk/low probabilities are likely in later outlooks for isolated wind/hail.
..Jewell.. 08/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, August 19
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Thursday, August 20
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Friday, August 21
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Saturday, August 22
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, August 23
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, August 24
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, August 25
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, August 26
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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