Severe Weather Outlook

show me my personal outlook →

Hayley here - Do you want to see severe weather in your calendar?

* it's like an add-on for your digital calendar NOT a paper calendar

National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Friday, July 3

Saturday, July 4

Sunday, July 5

Monday, July 6

Tuesday, July 7

Wednesday, July 8

Thursday, July 9

Outlook for Friday, July 3

Outlook Summary

Scattered wind damage and large hail are expected from parts of Nebraska into Iowa Friday. Isolated to scattered severe storms are also possible extending eastward from the northern/central Plains into the Midwest, Tennessee Valley, and Mid-Atlantic.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 30%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 030553

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA

### SUMMARY

Scattered wind damage and large hail are expected from parts of Nebraska into Iowa Friday. Isolated to scattered severe storms are also possible extending eastward from the northern/central Plains into the Midwest, Tennessee Valley, and Mid-Atlantic.

Synopsis

The flow across the central US will modify today, becoming more zonal as height rises begin across the southern Rockies. Upper-level ridging will continue across the eastern US. A surface front will extend across the northern High Plains into the Midwest and Upper Great Lakes. Several clusters of thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of this boundary. Additional scattered thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Northeast to the Mid-Atlantic and across the Tennessee Valley and northern Georgia.

Northern/Central Plains

Modest westerly flow will remain across the northern/central Plains this afternoon, with a shortwave trough rotating through the flow across the Dakotas into Minnesota by the evening. Scattered thunderstorm activity is expected along and near a surface boundary extending from the western Dakotas into the Upper Midwest. A reservoir of moderate to strong instability will remain amid a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates. Initially, a few supercells are likely, particularly near the Black Hills in South Dakota and across the central Dakotas. Deep layer shear around 30-40 kts and aforementioned steep lapse rates will support potential for large to very large hail. Eventual upscale growth into one or more bowing clusters is expected towards the evening, especially as forcing for ascent increases with the shortwave and increasing low-level jet in the evening. Potential will also increase for a few significant gusts 75+ mph, particularly across northeastern Nebraska into western Iowa.

Additional isolated supercell development will be possible near the surface trough and dry line from western Kansas into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle. Forcing will be weaker in this region, but a few instances of large hail and severe wind will be possible.

Midwest to the Lower Great Lakes and portions of the Northeast/Mid Atlantic

Widely scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible across the Midwest into the Great Lakes/Upper Ohio Valley in the vicinity of residual outflow from overnight activity. Deep layer shear/flow will be relatively weak but a moderately unstable and moist air mass will support potential for a few clusters which produce swaths of damaging wind.

A corridor of more favorable mid-level flow around 40-50 kts will exist along the periphery of the ridge across the Northeast to the northern Mid-Atlantic. Deep layer shear around 30-40 kts may support one or more organized clusters with damaging wind potential into the afternoon/early evening.

TN Valley and northern GA

Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected across portions of the Tennessee Valley into northern Georgia this afternoon. Flow across the region will be negligible but a very moist and unstable air mass amid steep low to mid-level lapse rates will support potential for wet downbursts.

..Thornton/Moore.. 07/03/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

← back to overview

Outlook for Saturday, July 4

Outlook Summary

Clusters of storms may evolve across parts of the Allegheny Plateau into Mid Atlantic and across the central Great Plains Saturday afternoon and evening, posing a risk for damaging wind gusts. Large hail is also possible across the Great Plains

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 15%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 030533

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO MID ATLANTIC AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Clusters of storms may evolve across parts of the Allegheny Plateau into Mid Atlantic and across the central Great Plains Saturday afternoon and evening, posing a risk for damaging wind gusts. Large hail is also possible across the Great Plains

Discussion

Models indicate that a remnant mid-level high, now centered near or just east the southern Appalachians, will become suppressed by the beginning of this period. A new high may become a bit more prominent upstream, near and to the lee of the southern Rockies, with ridging also building to its northwest, from portions of the eastern Great Basin through portions of the mid Missouri Valley. To the east of this ridging, weak initially zonal flow may transition to a broadly cyclonic regime across the Upper Midwest and lower Missouri into Ohio Valleys. Stronger westerlies are likely to remain confined to higher latitudes, but one embedded larger-scale trough is forecast to dig across the Canadian Maritimes and New England Saturday through Saturday night.

In lower levels, more substantive cooling/drying may overspread much of northern New England during the day, and perhaps the Adirondacks vicinity and portions of the upper Great Lakes by late Saturday night. However, this may be preceded by a diffuse/weak front, perhaps augmented by convective outflow is some locations, advancing southward across the Mid Atlantic, Ohio and lower Missouri Valleys and central Great Plains through the period.

Along and south of the lead front/convective outflow, a boundary-layer characterized by seasonably high moisture content may again become characterized by large potential instability with daytime heating. This will probably become supportive of widely scattered to scattered strong thunderstorm development posing at least some severe weather risk. The magnitude/areal coverage of this potential remains uncertain, and will largely be influenced by sub-synoptic developments that are of low predictability at this extended time frame, as evidenced by sizable model spread still apparent in latest model output, including convection-allowing guidance.

Allegheny Plateau into Mid Atlantic

Potential convective evolution remains uncertain, with forcing for ascent to support thunderstorm development unclear. However, there appears some general consensus in model output that at least scattered thunderstorm development will initiate in response to daytime boundary-layer destabilization across the Allegheny Plateau, as mid-level heights subtly begin to fall. This is forecast to develop eastward across the Mid Atlantic by early evening.

Given the degree of instability forecast, and possibly a belt of convectively augmented flow (including 30-40 kt in the 850-500 mb layer) spreading east-southeast of the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley vicinity, there appears potential for one or two organizing clusters capable of producing damaging wind gusts to evolve.

Central Great Plains

Given the possible general tendency for larger-scale mid-level height rises across the Rockies and adjacent Great Plains, and spread evident in model output, convective potential for this period remains uncertain. However, lingering convectively generated or augmented perturbations within evolving northwesterly mid-level flow could support widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development, including a few supercells by early Saturday evening. This may be focused in moistening southeasterly low-level flow across parts of northeastern Colorado and western Nebraska, and near a zone of strengthening differential heating on the southwestern flank of a stalled outflow boundary across western into central Kansas.

Warm advection and convergence near the nose of a nocturnally strengthening southerly low-level jet, with boundary-layer decoupling across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle vicinity into southwestern Kansas, seems to offer the best support for a possible upscale growing cluster, which could maintain a risk for large hail and strong to severe surface gusts into Saturday night.

..Kerr.. 07/03/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

← back to overview

Outlook for Sunday, July 5

Outlook Summary

Developing thunderstorm clusters may pose a risk for damaging wind gusts across parts of the Mid Atlantic, and perhaps parts of the southern Great Plains, Sunday afternoon and evening.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 030732

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC

### SUMMARY

Developing thunderstorm clusters may pose a risk for damaging wind gusts across parts of the Mid Atlantic, and perhaps parts of the southern Great Plains, Sunday afternoon and evening.

Discussion

The stronger mid-latitude westerlies likely will remain confined to the higher latitudes through this period. Within this regime, one initially notable short wave trough is forecast to gradually merge into a significant mid-level low digging through the Labrador Sea, as it accelerates away from the Canadian Maritimes and northern New England. Upstream, mid-level troughing may gradually consolidate across and east of the Canadian Prairies, and support modest surface cyclogenesis across northern Saskatchewan and Manitoba. However, it currently appears that stronger forcing for ascent, and potential for severe thunderstorm development, will remain focused to the north of the international border.

To the south of this perturbation, models suggest that mid-level ridging, across the eastern Great Basin into north central Great Plains at the outset of the period, will expand eastward across the middle Missouri Valley toward upper Mississippi Valley Sunday through Sunday night. Downstream, weak troughing, with embedded convectively generated perturbations, will probably continue to overspread the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.

The focus for renewed thunderstorm development east of the southern Great Plains into the Ohio Valley, Cumberland and Allegheny Plateau remains unclear and will be considerably influenced by mesoscale/sub-synoptic developments with low predictability at this time frame. In general though, while at least pockets of large potential instability may conditionally support some risk for storms with potential to produce localized strong downbursts and gusty winds along outflows, weak shear will probably limit the potential for sustained organizing clusters. As such, the risk for severe winds may not be completely negligible, but it is not clear that it will reach the 5 percent threshold for an areal outlook.

Mid Atlantic

There does appear a general consensus in model output that a low-level baroclinic zone may remain fairly well defined to the north through northeast of a surface low developing to the lee of the Blue Ridge by late Sunday afternoon. Near or just south of a residual belt of convectively augmented westerly lower/mid-tropospheric flow, the environment could become conducive to organizing thunderstorm development with potential to produce damaging wind gusts into Sunday evening.

Raton Mesa/ridge into Texas South Plains

A bit less certain, guidance suggests that it is possible that a mid-level perturbation crossing the southern Rockies by Sunday evening could provide a support for another developing cluster of storms along a zone of differential surface heating. Moisture within the strengthening baroclinic zone may provide support for sizable mixed-layer CAPE, in the presence of modest shear due to veering of wind fields with height, to support organization accompanied by a period of strong to severe wind gusts into/through Sunday evening.

..Kerr.. 07/03/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

← back to overview

Outlook for Monday, July 6

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, July 5	low / uncertain
Day 5	Monday, July 6	predictability too low
Day 6	Tuesday, July 7	predictability too low
Day 7	Wednesday, July 8	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, July 9	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020855 SPC AC 020855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

DISCUSSION

Model trends have been for the upper ridge to amplify less in the West than in previous cycles. This will allow southwesterly mid-level winds to persist longer in the Intermountain region. In the East, a shortwave trough will approach the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Sunday before cyclonic flow remains in the regions through the middle of the following week. Upper ridging will stay within the central CONUS before flattening as a couple of shortwave troughs move over the northern tier states. Moderate to strong buoyancy is expected to remain south a stalled surface boundary in the Southeast. The cyclonic flow in the West will eventually bring moisture farther northwest into the High Plains. While predictability is generally low, at least localized severe potential will exist near the surface boundaries and any MCVs that may be present. High Plains thunderstorms are also possible. Where greater shear/lift exists with the western shortwave troughs, severe potential could increase.

Mid-Atlantic

With the approach of modest mid-level height falls on Sunday, storm coverage will likely increase from Saturday both along the stalled surface front and within the Blue Ridge. Given a similar environment to Saturday, a 15% severe risk was added. Damaging wind gusts are likely the primary hazard.

..Wendt.. 07/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Tuesday, July 7

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, July 5	low / uncertain
Day 5	Monday, July 6	predictability too low
Day 6	Tuesday, July 7	predictability too low
Day 7	Wednesday, July 8	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, July 9	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020855 SPC AC 020855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

DISCUSSION

Model trends have been for the upper ridge to amplify less in the West than in previous cycles. This will allow southwesterly mid-level winds to persist longer in the Intermountain region. In the East, a shortwave trough will approach the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Sunday before cyclonic flow remains in the regions through the middle of the following week. Upper ridging will stay within the central CONUS before flattening as a couple of shortwave troughs move over the northern tier states. Moderate to strong buoyancy is expected to remain south a stalled surface boundary in the Southeast. The cyclonic flow in the West will eventually bring moisture farther northwest into the High Plains. While predictability is generally low, at least localized severe potential will exist near the surface boundaries and any MCVs that may be present. High Plains thunderstorms are also possible. Where greater shear/lift exists with the western shortwave troughs, severe potential could increase.

Mid-Atlantic

With the approach of modest mid-level height falls on Sunday, storm coverage will likely increase from Saturday both along the stalled surface front and within the Blue Ridge. Given a similar environment to Saturday, a 15% severe risk was added. Damaging wind gusts are likely the primary hazard.

..Wendt.. 07/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Wednesday, July 8

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, July 5	low / uncertain
Day 5	Monday, July 6	predictability too low
Day 6	Tuesday, July 7	predictability too low
Day 7	Wednesday, July 8	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, July 9	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020855 SPC AC 020855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

DISCUSSION

Model trends have been for the upper ridge to amplify less in the West than in previous cycles. This will allow southwesterly mid-level winds to persist longer in the Intermountain region. In the East, a shortwave trough will approach the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Sunday before cyclonic flow remains in the regions through the middle of the following week. Upper ridging will stay within the central CONUS before flattening as a couple of shortwave troughs move over the northern tier states. Moderate to strong buoyancy is expected to remain south a stalled surface boundary in the Southeast. The cyclonic flow in the West will eventually bring moisture farther northwest into the High Plains. While predictability is generally low, at least localized severe potential will exist near the surface boundaries and any MCVs that may be present. High Plains thunderstorms are also possible. Where greater shear/lift exists with the western shortwave troughs, severe potential could increase.

Mid-Atlantic

With the approach of modest mid-level height falls on Sunday, storm coverage will likely increase from Saturday both along the stalled surface front and within the Blue Ridge. Given a similar environment to Saturday, a 15% severe risk was added. Damaging wind gusts are likely the primary hazard.

..Wendt.. 07/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Thursday, July 9

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, July 5	low / uncertain
Day 5	Monday, July 6	predictability too low
Day 6	Tuesday, July 7	predictability too low
Day 7	Wednesday, July 8	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, July 9	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020855 SPC AC 020855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

DISCUSSION

Model trends have been for the upper ridge to amplify less in the West than in previous cycles. This will allow southwesterly mid-level winds to persist longer in the Intermountain region. In the East, a shortwave trough will approach the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Sunday before cyclonic flow remains in the regions through the middle of the following week. Upper ridging will stay within the central CONUS before flattening as a couple of shortwave troughs move over the northern tier states. Moderate to strong buoyancy is expected to remain south a stalled surface boundary in the Southeast. The cyclonic flow in the West will eventually bring moisture farther northwest into the High Plains. While predictability is generally low, at least localized severe potential will exist near the surface boundaries and any MCVs that may be present. High Plains thunderstorms are also possible. Where greater shear/lift exists with the western shortwave troughs, severe potential could increase.

Mid-Atlantic

With the approach of modest mid-level height falls on Sunday, storm coverage will likely increase from Saturday both along the stalled surface front and within the Blue Ridge. Given a similar environment to Saturday, a 15% severe risk was added. Damaging wind gusts are likely the primary hazard.

..Wendt.. 07/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

National Risk Overview

Friday, July 3: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 30%
Saturday, July 4: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Sunday, July 5: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Monday, July 6: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, July 7: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, July 8: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, July 9: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Your Severe Outlook

Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.

Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.

Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.

Severe Weather Outlook Amazon link →

About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.