Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Wednesday, July 1

Outlook Summary

Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are still expected across the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes into tonight. A couple of tornadoes are possible but damaging wind gusts are expected to be the more widespread hazard, in addition to isolated large to very large hail. Severe storms also remain a concern across parts of the central High Plains, Northeast, and Southeast/Tennessee Valley.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 012006

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 PM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026

Valid 012000Z - 021200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES

### THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST…CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS…AND GULF COAST STATES

### SUMMARY

Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are still expected across the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes into tonight. A couple of tornadoes are possible but damaging wind gusts are expected to be the more widespread hazard, in addition to isolated large to very large hail. Severe storms also remain a concern across parts of the central High Plains, Northeast, and Southeast/Tennessee Valley.

20Z Update

The main change made to this outlook was to expand the wind-driven severe probabilities southward across portions of the Upper Midwest based on observational trends. A belt of relatively thick cloud cover exists across portions of the Midwest. However, considerable clearing and a CU field, along with isolated thunderstorms, has developed across eastern IA into southern WI, where appreciable buoyancy (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) and up to 40 kts of effective bulk shear reside. Furthermore, a few of the latest WoFS runs also depict some higher thunderstorm coverage across eastern IA into southern WI. As such, the thinking is that organized severe potential, mainly in the form of severe gusts, should exist across this region through the evening.

Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track, with relatively minor changes made to the thunder and severe probabilities to reflect the latest observations and guidance consensus.

..Squitieri.. 07/01/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1156 AM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026/

Midwest and Upper Great Lakes

An active multi-round day of severe weather is expected across the region through tonight. Early this afternoon, ongoing severe risks will continue to focus across northern Michigan as well as eastern Wisconsin, with a secondary round of severe storms potentially spreading into Lower Michigan later this afternoon. See existing Mesoscale Discussions/Watches for short-term details.

Severe potential later today will focus on a convectively reinforced boundary, with a very moist and potentially unstable environment along and south of it. Renewed deep convective development is expected later this afternoon into tonight across northern Iowa and southern Minnesota, and again into Wisconsin. A ribbon of moderately strong mid-level westerlies, some of it MCV-enhanced, will support organized storm modes including supercells and fast-moving line segments and potential upscale-MCS development. Large to very large hail will be possible with the more intense storms in addition to wind, which may become more prevalent of a hazard (60-80+ mph) as storm mergers lead to a couple of strong to severe clusters developing. Some tornado potential may exist as well, particularly along the effective boundary and/or increasing this evening as a southwesterly low-level reinvigorates.

Central and southern High Plains

High-based thunderstorm development is expected along a north/south-oriented lee trough/dryline during the afternoon and evening. Despite modest deep-layer shear (around 25-30 kt), steep low/mid-level lapse rates will contribute to a strongly unstable airmass. A mix of loosely organized clusters and possibly some supercell structures will be capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail. Farther south into the southern High Plains, weaker flow will limit overall storm organization, but steep lapse rates will support severe gusts with the more intense downdrafts.

Northeast

Enhanced west-northwesterly mid-level flow will persist across the Northeast, where a warm/moist air mass will contribute to around 3000 J/kg MLCAPE, especially across much of New York and Pennsylvania. While nebulous mesoscale forcing for ascent casts uncertainty on overall convective coverage and evolution, the strong buoyancy and a veering wind profile (albeit modest deep-layer shear quantitatively) will favor east-southeastward-spreading convection capable of damaging wind gusts and isolated hail during the afternoon, and again during the evening/nighttime hours.

Southeast/Tennessee Valley

Along the southern periphery of a mid-level anticyclone centered over the central Appalachians, easterly flow through much of the troposphere resides atop a hot/moist air mass with 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE this afternoon. 12z observed soundings from Atlanta, Birmingham, and Jackson MS notably sampled 25-35 kt winds between 3-6km AGL, which could aid in storm organization this afternoon. A somewhat cooler thermal profile aloft was also noted with the 12z Atlanta sounding with a relatively steep mid-level lapse rate profile. Strong to severe pulse thunderstorms are expected regionally, and seemingly with a somewhat greater coverage and likelihood than a typical pulse-type scenario. The stronger water-loaded wet microbursts will yield localized gusts of 50-65 mph and be capable of wind damage.

Montana and northern Great Basin

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of a slow-moving mid-level trough moving across the Northwest. Preceding the trough, around 40 kt of mid-level southwesterly flow and a weakly unstable air mass will support a couple loosely organized clusters capable of producing severe wind gusts during the afternoon and evening.

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

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Outlook for Thursday, July 2

Outlook Summary

Strong to severe storms will be possible from the northern Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes regions, as well as across the southern Appalachians on Thursday. Isolated strong to severe storms may also occur in the Tennessee Valley, central High Plains, and parts of the Northeast.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 011727

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST AND OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS

### SUMMARY

Strong to severe storms will be possible from the northern Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes regions, as well as across the southern Appalachians on Thursday. Isolated strong to severe storms may also occur in the Tennessee Valley, central High Plains, and parts of the Northeast.

Synopsis

Within the periphery of an upper high centered over the TN Valley and Cumberland Plateau, a number of weak mid-level perturbations (some of convective origin) will progress through the northern and central Plains, Great Lakes, and Northeast. At the surface, a lee cyclone will persist over eastern MT or the western Dakotas with an associated stationary or warm front extending east through central MN into northern or central WI. The specific location of that boundary across MN and WI will be dictated by the extent of convective outflow generated by storms occurring tonight.

### Northern High Plains into the Great Lakes and Midwest

There is considerable spread in 12Z guidance with respect to fine-scale details of storm evolution during the forecast period. However, those data indicate a couple potential scenarios that may unfold. The first one appears to be associated with an MCV originating from central High Plains convection this afternoon into tonight, which will move through the mid MO Valley Thursday morning. Forecast soundings suggest initial storms may be slightly elevated and rooted within a moderate to strongly unstable environment, which will coincide with a zone of enhanced mid-level flow accompanying the MCV. As such, the early-day storms may pose a large hail and damaging wind risk with the potential for that activity to grow upscale into a severe-wind-producing MCS that tracks through IA into southern MN, WI, and perhaps northern IL during the day. Additional afternoon and evening storms capable of large hail and damaging winds are possible downstream from the potential MCS, along the outflow-modulated stationary front in MN and WI.

A second, higher-confidence scenario is for diurnally enhanced thunderstorms to develop in the vicinity of the lee cyclone and surface front across the western Dakotas, in advance of a short-wave trough moving through eastern MT. Forecast soundings indicate the presence of steep lapse rates and resultant moderate instability, which will coincide with a vertically veering wind profile with 40-45 kt of deep-layer shear. That environment will support supercells as the initial storm mode with the primary hazard being large to very large hail. The tornado threat is expected to be limited by relatively large temperature-dewpoint spreads, which will support stronger cold pool development.

The models indicate the initial storms growing upscale into one or multiple forward-propagating MCSs across the central and eastern Dakotas into eastern parts of the Midwest Thursday evening into night with the potential for corridors of damaging winds with significant gusts in excess of 75 mph. Uncertainty in the specific track of the MCS(s) precludes the inclusion of higher wind probabilities and a related level 3/Enhanced Risk.

### Southern Appalachians into the Tennessee Valley

Moderate to strong instability is forecast in the vicinity of the upper high Thursday afternoon. There is a relatively consistent signal in 12Z guidance that storms will form along the high terrain of east TN, the western Carolinas, and north GA with a subsequent west to southwest motion/propagation during the afternoon and early evening hours. Similar to the 12Z observed soundings this morning, the forecast environment indicates a belt of enhanced easterly winds in the 2-4 km AGL layer, which may support cold pool organization and the potential for a more concentrated damaging wind threat.

### Central High Plains

Isolated high-based thunderstorms are possible along a lee trough over far eastern CO into western KS Thursday afternoon and evening. Steep low/mid-level lapse rates and up to 30 kt of deep-layer shear may contribute to episodic supercell structures with an attendant risk for large hail and severe wind gusts.

### Northeast…

In the absence of a discernible surface boundary, the timing and extent of any thunderstorm development remains uncertain. The most likely scenario will be for thunderstorms to move into the region from southern Quebec or southeast Ontario Thursday afternoon into night. The presence of moderate to strong instability and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear will be supportive of organized storm modes with the predominant hazard being damaging winds. Higher wind probabilities and a level 2/Slight Risk may become necessary in later outlooks once convective details become more certain.

..Mead.. 07/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Friday, July 3

Outlook Summary

Isolated to scattered severe storms are possible from the northern/central Plains into the Midwest, Tennessee Valley, and Mid-Atlantic on Friday.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 011931

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MIDWEST

### SUMMARY

Isolated to scattered severe storms are possible from the northern/central Plains into the Midwest, Tennessee Valley, and Mid-Atlantic on Friday.

Synopsis

One or multiple mid-level disturbances over the northern and central High Plains Friday morning are forecast to progress into the upper Midwest by Friday night. Meanwhile, a downstream belt of west to west-northwest flow will prevail in the mid levels from the Great Lakes into Northeast. At the surface, a lee cyclone and attending trough will exist over the northern High Plains with a secondary low pressure center over the central Plains. An outflow-modulated warm or stationary front is expected to extend from the northern Plains low into the upper Midwest. Elsewhere, there is some model signal for the development of a surface trough from southern New England into the Delmarva Friday afternoon.

### Northern and Central Plains into the Midwest and Upper Great Lakes

The potential for early-day storms introduces forecast uncertainty in subsequent afternoon/evening severe weather potential due to the location of relevant surface boundaries and extent of convective overturning. However, by afternoon, the models indicate the development of a broad corridor of moderate to strong instability across the northern and central Plains into the southern Great Lakes and OH Valley. Diurnally enhanced thunderstorm development is most probable from the vicinity of the northern Plains lee cyclone and trough east along the outflow-modulated front within a zone of forcing for ascent preceding the disturbances mentioned in the synopsis. The instability combined with modestly strong deep-layer shear will be supportive of organized storm modes capable of large to very large hail and damaging winds with the potential for significant gusts Friday afternoon into night.

### Mid-Atlantic

Increasing height falls are forecast Friday afternoon into night downstream from a more prominent short-wave trough progressing into eastern Ontario and southwest Quebec. The various 12Z models offer different scenarios in the preferred location of diurnally enhanced storms with the best overlap extending from portions of southern NY and northern PA to the Mid-Atlantic Coast. The colocation of moderate instability and modest deep-layer shear in that area may support some storm organization with the primary hazards being damaging winds and large hail.

A similar environment is forecast across the region on Saturday, July 4th, potentially warranting the inclusion of higher severe weather probabilities.

### Ohio and Tennessee Valleys

A number of models indicate the potential for one or multiple MCSs to progress through the region during the forecast period. Vertical shear is expected to be relatively weak. However, the presence of moderate to strong instability may promote periods of cold-pool organization with a related damaging wind threat.

..Mead.. 07/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Saturday, July 4

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Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010900 SPC AC 010900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

Flow aloft will become more zonal by this weekend as the upper-level ridge flattens and begins to shift/build westward. The strongest mid-level winds will be present across the northern tier of the CONUS. An upper-level low in the vicinity of the Canadian Maritimes will bring a belt of stronger mid-level winds across the Northeast. Some southward movement of a surface boundary can be expected within the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic this weekend into early next week. At the same time, northwesterly flow aloft will develop over the High Plains along with moisture pushing farther northwest into the region.

Severe potential will largely be driven by mesoscale features such as localized convergence along stalled/weak boundaries as well as MCVs from prior convection. The airmass across much of the Plains into the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic will be quite unstable and strong heating will occur underneath the increasingly muted upper ridge. Subtle lift from shortwave troughs may promote greater convective coverage in parts of the Mid-Atlantic early next week. However, the stronger, but still modest, shear will be displaced from the most buoyant airmass. Additional convection will be possible along the surface boundary within the Midwest/Ohio Valley, but shear will generally be weak. More organized convection may also develop within the northwest flow pattern in the High Plains, but predictability remains low as to where this will eventually occur.

..Wendt.. 07/01/2026

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Outlook for Sunday, July 5

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Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010900 SPC AC 010900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

Flow aloft will become more zonal by this weekend as the upper-level ridge flattens and begins to shift/build westward. The strongest mid-level winds will be present across the northern tier of the CONUS. An upper-level low in the vicinity of the Canadian Maritimes will bring a belt of stronger mid-level winds across the Northeast. Some southward movement of a surface boundary can be expected within the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic this weekend into early next week. At the same time, northwesterly flow aloft will develop over the High Plains along with moisture pushing farther northwest into the region.

Severe potential will largely be driven by mesoscale features such as localized convergence along stalled/weak boundaries as well as MCVs from prior convection. The airmass across much of the Plains into the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic will be quite unstable and strong heating will occur underneath the increasingly muted upper ridge. Subtle lift from shortwave troughs may promote greater convective coverage in parts of the Mid-Atlantic early next week. However, the stronger, but still modest, shear will be displaced from the most buoyant airmass. Additional convection will be possible along the surface boundary within the Midwest/Ohio Valley, but shear will generally be weak. More organized convection may also develop within the northwest flow pattern in the High Plains, but predictability remains low as to where this will eventually occur.

..Wendt.. 07/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, July 6

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010900 SPC AC 010900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

Flow aloft will become more zonal by this weekend as the upper-level ridge flattens and begins to shift/build westward. The strongest mid-level winds will be present across the northern tier of the CONUS. An upper-level low in the vicinity of the Canadian Maritimes will bring a belt of stronger mid-level winds across the Northeast. Some southward movement of a surface boundary can be expected within the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic this weekend into early next week. At the same time, northwesterly flow aloft will develop over the High Plains along with moisture pushing farther northwest into the region.

Severe potential will largely be driven by mesoscale features such as localized convergence along stalled/weak boundaries as well as MCVs from prior convection. The airmass across much of the Plains into the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic will be quite unstable and strong heating will occur underneath the increasingly muted upper ridge. Subtle lift from shortwave troughs may promote greater convective coverage in parts of the Mid-Atlantic early next week. However, the stronger, but still modest, shear will be displaced from the most buoyant airmass. Additional convection will be possible along the surface boundary within the Midwest/Ohio Valley, but shear will generally be weak. More organized convection may also develop within the northwest flow pattern in the High Plains, but predictability remains low as to where this will eventually occur.

..Wendt.. 07/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, July 7

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010900 SPC AC 010900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

Flow aloft will become more zonal by this weekend as the upper-level ridge flattens and begins to shift/build westward. The strongest mid-level winds will be present across the northern tier of the CONUS. An upper-level low in the vicinity of the Canadian Maritimes will bring a belt of stronger mid-level winds across the Northeast. Some southward movement of a surface boundary can be expected within the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic this weekend into early next week. At the same time, northwesterly flow aloft will develop over the High Plains along with moisture pushing farther northwest into the region.

Severe potential will largely be driven by mesoscale features such as localized convergence along stalled/weak boundaries as well as MCVs from prior convection. The airmass across much of the Plains into the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic will be quite unstable and strong heating will occur underneath the increasingly muted upper ridge. Subtle lift from shortwave troughs may promote greater convective coverage in parts of the Mid-Atlantic early next week. However, the stronger, but still modest, shear will be displaced from the most buoyant airmass. Additional convection will be possible along the surface boundary within the Midwest/Ohio Valley, but shear will generally be weak. More organized convection may also develop within the northwest flow pattern in the High Plains, but predictability remains low as to where this will eventually occur.

..Wendt.. 07/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, July 8

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010900 SPC AC 010900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

Flow aloft will become more zonal by this weekend as the upper-level ridge flattens and begins to shift/build westward. The strongest mid-level winds will be present across the northern tier of the CONUS. An upper-level low in the vicinity of the Canadian Maritimes will bring a belt of stronger mid-level winds across the Northeast. Some southward movement of a surface boundary can be expected within the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic this weekend into early next week. At the same time, northwesterly flow aloft will develop over the High Plains along with moisture pushing farther northwest into the region.

Severe potential will largely be driven by mesoscale features such as localized convergence along stalled/weak boundaries as well as MCVs from prior convection. The airmass across much of the Plains into the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic will be quite unstable and strong heating will occur underneath the increasingly muted upper ridge. Subtle lift from shortwave troughs may promote greater convective coverage in parts of the Mid-Atlantic early next week. However, the stronger, but still modest, shear will be displaced from the most buoyant airmass. Additional convection will be possible along the surface boundary within the Midwest/Ohio Valley, but shear will generally be weak. More organized convection may also develop within the northwest flow pattern in the High Plains, but predictability remains low as to where this will eventually occur.

..Wendt.. 07/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Wednesday, July 1

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 30%

Thursday, July 2

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Friday, July 3

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Saturday, July 4

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Sunday, July 5

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Monday, July 6

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Tuesday, July 7

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Wednesday, July 8

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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