Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, October 7
Outlook Summary
Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely across the U.S. today and tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 071243
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026
Valid 071300Z - 081200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely across the U.S. today and tonight.
West-central Florida Peninsula
A generally similar meteorological setup as yesterday is expected, with any strong/severe storm risk focused near/east of a weak surface wave, and along a front that extends from the northeast Gulf east-northeastward across the middle part of the Peninsula. Scattered showers with some thunderstorms are occurring early this morning either side of the front, and cloud cover is prevalent, although scattered cloud breaks are noted offshore over the eastern Gulf. A moist environment resides near/south of the front, with prevalent 70s F surface dewpoints and a 2.53 inch Precipitable Water value as sampled per the 12z observed Tampa Bay sounding. However, given cloud cover and ongoing precipitation, lapse rates will remain poor with limited overall instability and thin buoyancy profiles, which will tend to limit storm vigor.
Vertical wind shear will also be modest (effective shear generally 25 kt or less), and while 1-3 km AGL flow will remain weak, some low-level veering will yield some hodograph curvature that could support transient supercell potential. While waterspout potential will exist offshore, it is unclear if tornadic waterspout-producing storms will reach the west-central Florida Peninsula and/or if supercells will develop inland. Current thinking is that today’s severe risk will remain low, but any need for severe probabilities will continue to be re-evaluated in subsequent outlooks.
Northern New York
Isolated low-topped thunderstorms will be possible late today and more so into tonight, influenced by an amplifying upstream upper-level trough and approaching cold front. Overall buoyancy will be limited, but still sufficient for the possibility of thunderstorms. Furthermore, some convective enhancement/gusty winds are plausible tonight given the increasing magnitude of the low/mid-tropospheric flow and steepening lapse rates atop the boundary layer.
..Guyer/Dean.. 10/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Thursday, October 8
Outlook Summary
Severe storms are not expected on Thursday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 070428
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 PM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe storms are not expected on Thursday.
Synopsis
An upper low will move east out of James Bay and into Quebec on Thursday, with a broad upper trough from the Great Lakes into the Northeast. A leading midlevel speed max is forecast to move across southern New England during the day, with cold temperatures aloft to the north. This may favor isolated low-topped thunderstorms from the Upper Hudson Valley into Maine as surface heating occurs and a wind shift/trough sweeps across the region. Very small hail cannot be ruled out with 500 mb temperatures near -25 C.
To the south, strong low-level easterlies will develop over the northern Gulf of America as the tropical cyclone strengthens over the central Gulf, possibly into a hurricane by Thursday evening per NHC. This flow regime will maintain 70s F dewpoints over FL, with scattered afternoon thunderstorms possible. Severe storms are not expected due to weak shear and poor lapse rates.
To the west, cool midlevel temperatures to -12 C will exist over the Great Basin, with sparse weak thunderstorms over parts of the Four Corners states during the afternoon.
Elsewhere, a few thunderstorms may occur from eastern NE into IA late in the day and overnight as southwesterly 850 mb winds increase to 30 kt, with sufficient elevated instability present in the warm advection/height rise regime.
..Jewell.. 10/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Friday, October 9
Outlook Summary
An increasing tornado risk may develop into early Saturday morning along the north-central Gulf Coast in association with the developing tropical cyclone.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 070734
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST
### SUMMARY
An increasing tornado risk may develop into early Saturday morning along the north-central Gulf Coast in association with the developing tropical cyclone.
Discussion
Severe storm chances will be low across most of the CONUS on Friday, the exception being over the northern Gulf Coast late Friday night into Saturday morning.
NHC currently forecasts Tropical Depression 9 to become a hurricane late Thursday, strengthening further into Friday over the Gulf of America. Some uncertainty exists as to the timing of an eventual forward acceleration northward. In any case, the system is forecast to affect the northern Gulf Coast late in the Day 3 period (which ends at 12Z Saturday morning), and as such, low probabilities for tornado risk have been added.
Low-level shear/SRH will be very strong east of the storm center. The surface air mass may remain stable over the mainland until very close to 12Z Saturday, with a greater chance of larger SBCAPE over extreme southeast LA prior to 12Z. Once the coastal boundary moves inland, a surge of mid 70s F dewpoints and southerly winds will lead to overly enlarged hodographs, supporting rotation in the stronger cells with tornado potential.
..Jewell.. 10/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Saturday, October 10
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 10 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Sunday, October 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, October 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, October 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, October 14 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070826 SPC AC 070826
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
For Sat/D4, the latest NHC guidance (as of this writing) has brought the center track of the developing hurricane farther east toward southern AL and the western FL Panhandle, and thus the Slight Risk for tornado potential has been shunted east. Further, given the likelihood of a stronger cyclone and faster forward motion, the Slight Risk has also been expanded farther north/inland, as it appears the mid 70s F dewpoints may expand across much of southern AL. The strong low-level shear east of the center, and increasing midlevel winds (as a shortwave trough deepens over the Lower MS Valley) should support a few supercells with tornado potential. It should be noted that the Slight Risk area may shift in subsequent outlooks if the center track shifts.
For Sun/D5, the shortwave trough and remnants of the tropical cyclone will generally move northeastward toward the Appalachians and toward the Carolinas and southern Mid Atlantic. It is possible that the upper system outruns the unstable warm sector, but at least a low end chance of severe is not out of the question.
For the remainder of the period, there may be a chance of severe storms over parts of the Southern Plains into Wed/D8 as a developing western trough eventually moves across the Rockies, and low-level moisture returns in earnest. However, the evolution of this trough and date of wave ejection is low predictability.
..Jewell.. 10/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, October 11
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 10 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Sunday, October 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, October 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, October 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, October 14 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070826 SPC AC 070826
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
For Sat/D4, the latest NHC guidance (as of this writing) has brought the center track of the developing hurricane farther east toward southern AL and the western FL Panhandle, and thus the Slight Risk for tornado potential has been shunted east. Further, given the likelihood of a stronger cyclone and faster forward motion, the Slight Risk has also been expanded farther north/inland, as it appears the mid 70s F dewpoints may expand across much of southern AL. The strong low-level shear east of the center, and increasing midlevel winds (as a shortwave trough deepens over the Lower MS Valley) should support a few supercells with tornado potential. It should be noted that the Slight Risk area may shift in subsequent outlooks if the center track shifts.
For Sun/D5, the shortwave trough and remnants of the tropical cyclone will generally move northeastward toward the Appalachians and toward the Carolinas and southern Mid Atlantic. It is possible that the upper system outruns the unstable warm sector, but at least a low end chance of severe is not out of the question.
For the remainder of the period, there may be a chance of severe storms over parts of the Southern Plains into Wed/D8 as a developing western trough eventually moves across the Rockies, and low-level moisture returns in earnest. However, the evolution of this trough and date of wave ejection is low predictability.
..Jewell.. 10/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, October 12
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 10 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Sunday, October 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, October 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, October 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, October 14 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070826 SPC AC 070826
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
For Sat/D4, the latest NHC guidance (as of this writing) has brought the center track of the developing hurricane farther east toward southern AL and the western FL Panhandle, and thus the Slight Risk for tornado potential has been shunted east. Further, given the likelihood of a stronger cyclone and faster forward motion, the Slight Risk has also been expanded farther north/inland, as it appears the mid 70s F dewpoints may expand across much of southern AL. The strong low-level shear east of the center, and increasing midlevel winds (as a shortwave trough deepens over the Lower MS Valley) should support a few supercells with tornado potential. It should be noted that the Slight Risk area may shift in subsequent outlooks if the center track shifts.
For Sun/D5, the shortwave trough and remnants of the tropical cyclone will generally move northeastward toward the Appalachians and toward the Carolinas and southern Mid Atlantic. It is possible that the upper system outruns the unstable warm sector, but at least a low end chance of severe is not out of the question.
For the remainder of the period, there may be a chance of severe storms over parts of the Southern Plains into Wed/D8 as a developing western trough eventually moves across the Rockies, and low-level moisture returns in earnest. However, the evolution of this trough and date of wave ejection is low predictability.
..Jewell.. 10/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, October 13
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 10 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Sunday, October 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, October 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, October 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, October 14 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070826 SPC AC 070826
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
For Sat/D4, the latest NHC guidance (as of this writing) has brought the center track of the developing hurricane farther east toward southern AL and the western FL Panhandle, and thus the Slight Risk for tornado potential has been shunted east. Further, given the likelihood of a stronger cyclone and faster forward motion, the Slight Risk has also been expanded farther north/inland, as it appears the mid 70s F dewpoints may expand across much of southern AL. The strong low-level shear east of the center, and increasing midlevel winds (as a shortwave trough deepens over the Lower MS Valley) should support a few supercells with tornado potential. It should be noted that the Slight Risk area may shift in subsequent outlooks if the center track shifts.
For Sun/D5, the shortwave trough and remnants of the tropical cyclone will generally move northeastward toward the Appalachians and toward the Carolinas and southern Mid Atlantic. It is possible that the upper system outruns the unstable warm sector, but at least a low end chance of severe is not out of the question.
For the remainder of the period, there may be a chance of severe storms over parts of the Southern Plains into Wed/D8 as a developing western trough eventually moves across the Rockies, and low-level moisture returns in earnest. However, the evolution of this trough and date of wave ejection is low predictability.
..Jewell.. 10/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, October 14
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 10 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Sunday, October 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, October 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, October 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, October 14 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070826 SPC AC 070826
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
For Sat/D4, the latest NHC guidance (as of this writing) has brought the center track of the developing hurricane farther east toward southern AL and the western FL Panhandle, and thus the Slight Risk for tornado potential has been shunted east. Further, given the likelihood of a stronger cyclone and faster forward motion, the Slight Risk has also been expanded farther north/inland, as it appears the mid 70s F dewpoints may expand across much of southern AL. The strong low-level shear east of the center, and increasing midlevel winds (as a shortwave trough deepens over the Lower MS Valley) should support a few supercells with tornado potential. It should be noted that the Slight Risk area may shift in subsequent outlooks if the center track shifts.
For Sun/D5, the shortwave trough and remnants of the tropical cyclone will generally move northeastward toward the Appalachians and toward the Carolinas and southern Mid Atlantic. It is possible that the upper system outruns the unstable warm sector, but at least a low end chance of severe is not out of the question.
For the remainder of the period, there may be a chance of severe storms over parts of the Southern Plains into Wed/D8 as a developing western trough eventually moves across the Rockies, and low-level moisture returns in earnest. However, the evolution of this trough and date of wave ejection is low predictability.
..Jewell.. 10/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, October 7
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Thursday, October 8
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Friday, October 9
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Saturday, October 10
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Sunday, October 11
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, October 12
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, October 13
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, October 14
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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