Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, August 5
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible from this afternoon into the overnight across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley. Isolated severe gusts may also occur in parts of the southern High Plains, and in southeastern Arizona.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 050531
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 AM CDT Wed Aug 05 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY…SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS…AND SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible from this afternoon into the overnight across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley. Isolated severe gusts may also occur in parts of the southern High Plains, and in southeastern Arizona.
Mid Mississippi Valley
An upper-level trough will move eastward today across the north-central U.S. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front will be located from the central Plains northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Along and to the south of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the lower to mid 70s F. As surface temperatures warm today, moderate instability will develop to the south of the front. Large-scale ascent associated with the trough will support scattered to numerous thunderstorm development from this afternoon into tonight across much of Missouri and Illinois.
RAP forecast soundings late this afternoon near the instability axis in northeast Missouri have MLCAPE near 2000 j/kg, with 0-6 km shear around 35 knots. This may support supercell development with storms that remain discrete. However, high-resolution models suggest that storm mode could be more favorable for multicells due to widespread convective coverage. Although low-level lapse rates will be poor, the instability and moderate deep-layer shear could be enough for isolated severe wind gusts and hail.
Southern High Plains
West-northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place today across much of the central U.S. A small pocket of moderate instability is forecast to develop over southeast Colorado this afternoon. This will aid convective initiation in the foothills of the southern Rockies. During the late afternoon and early evening, storms are expected to move east-southeastward into the lower elevations of the northwestern Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma Panhandle. The instability and steep low to mid-level lapse rates may support an isolated threat for severe wind gusts.
Southeastern Arizona
A sufficiently moist airmass will be in place today across southern Arizona. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability will develop over much of southeast Arizona by afternoon. Convection is expected to form in the higher terrain of southwest New Mexico, with storms moving west-southwestward across southeast Arizona from late afternoon into the early evening. Very steep low-level lapse rates and large temperature-dewpoint spreads will contribute to a potential for isolated severe wind gusts.
..Broyles/Supinie.. 08/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Thursday, August 6
Outlook Summary
A few strong storms may occur over small parts of the Great Plains, and over the Northeast on Thursday with locally strong wind gusts. Isolated hail may occur with the Northern Plains activity.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 050548
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Wed Aug 05 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST…FROM CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA…AND FROM SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
### SUMMARY
A few strong storms may occur over small parts of the Great Plains, and over the Northeast on Thursday with locally strong wind gusts. Isolated hail may occur with the Northern Plains activity.
Central SD into northwest NE
A shortwave trough will move southeastward across SK/MB, with at least some influence extending southward across the northern Plains. A surface trough will develop southward into central SD and western NE, where strong heating will occur. A narrow band of uncapped instability is forecast, with several models indicating scattered storms late in the day. Southerly 850 mb winds over 20 kt will aid/maintain moisture into the area, and forecast soundings show marginally favorable hodographs for supercells. Localized hail may occur initially, with some clustering and wind potential into the early evening.
Southern KS into northwest OK
A surface trough/wind shift is forecast to exist from southern KS into northern OK, with southerly winds and strong heating to the south. Near/north of the boundary, winds will remain southeasterly with higher dewpoints. General model consensus is for the deeply mixed boundary layer to support an uncapped air mass, with a zone of storms developing. These will likely produce strong outflow, and a few severe gusts may occur.
Northeast
Southwest winds aloft will persist over the region as an upper high remains over the Atlantic and a shortwave trough approaches the Lower Great Lakes by late afternoon. Height tendencies will remain neutral from NY into WV/VA during the day, but strong heating, PWAT near 2.00" and sufficient MUCAPE should aid scattered storm development near a weak surface trough after 19Z. This would include from south-central NY into central PA and across the higher terrain of western VA. A few strong gusts cannot be ruled out.
..Jewell.. 08/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Friday, August 7
Outlook Summary
A few strong storms may occur over parts of the Northeast and Upper Mississippi Valley region on Friday. Locally strong wind gusts appear most likely.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 050734
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CDT Wed Aug 05 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
A few strong storms may occur over parts of the Northeast and Upper Mississippi Valley region on Friday. Locally strong wind gusts appear most likely.
Northeast
Beneath modest southwest winds aloft, a large area of thunderstorms is likely Friday afternoon from the TN Valley/Appalachians into the Northeast, as daytime heating combines with a moist air mass and marginal instability. General thunderstorm activity appears most likely across these areas given weak winds at or below 20 kt below 700 mb. However, increasing daytime storm coverage could produce locally gusty winds/outflows, especially where pockets of greater instability develop with the higher dewpoints over eastern areas.
WI/MN/IA
A northwest flow regime over the northern Plains will gradually move toward the Upper Great Lakes Friday into Saturday, with cooling temperatures aloft and 500 mb winds on the order of 30-35 kt. A weak surface trough may develop from Lake Superior southwestward into IA during the day, with eventual destabilization as southwest winds at 850 mb increase to around 20 kt. Shear will not be particularly strong, but storms are likely late in the day into the overnight from WI into IA. While isolated severe gusts or hail cannot be ruled out, predictability issues preclude adding a risk area at this time.
..Jewell.. 08/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Saturday, August 8
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, August 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, August 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, August 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, August 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, August 12 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050900 SPC AC 050900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Aug 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
Saturday/D4
Southwest midlevel winds of only 25 kt will exist across the Northeast, while low-level moisture remains in place supporting up to 2000 J/kg MUCAPE with poor lapse rates aloft. This will support daytime thunderstorms over a large area from the Appalachians into the Northeast, and a few severe gusts cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, normal gusty outflow winds are to be expected.
To the west, an area of stronger instability is forecast across the Mid MO Valley, where northwesterly midlevel winds of 35 kt will exist along the southern periphery of a trough sweeping across the Upper Great Lakes. Evening/overnight storms may occur across parts of eastern NE, IA, and MO, and instability may be large enough to warrant at least low severe probabilities as the event nears in time.
Sunday/D5
Drying will occur aloft over parts of the Northeast as a wave moves into Quebec, but substantial low-level moisture will still support scattered thunderstorms ahead of a cold front across the Mid Atlantic. Shear will again be weak, but perhaps enough mean wind speeds will exist for storms to be mobile/produce areas of strong gusts.
To the west, low-level moisture is forecast to shift a bit farther north into the Dakotas, and this will occur beneath stronger northwest flow aloft. This area bears watching in later outlooks, as wind profiles may somewhat favor supercells. Predictability is currently low.
Mon/D6 to Wed/D8
While predictability decreases further during this time frame, moderate west to northwest flow aloft will remain from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes, which will spread into the Northeast D7/D8. If a wave does amplify within this flow regime, a corridor of damaging winds could develop given upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints along/south of the mean frontal zone (roughly IA to NY/PA by end of the period). Model variation is currently too great to depict an precise corridor.
..Jewell.. 08/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, August 9
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, August 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, August 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, August 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, August 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, August 12 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050900 SPC AC 050900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Aug 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
Saturday/D4
Southwest midlevel winds of only 25 kt will exist across the Northeast, while low-level moisture remains in place supporting up to 2000 J/kg MUCAPE with poor lapse rates aloft. This will support daytime thunderstorms over a large area from the Appalachians into the Northeast, and a few severe gusts cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, normal gusty outflow winds are to be expected.
To the west, an area of stronger instability is forecast across the Mid MO Valley, where northwesterly midlevel winds of 35 kt will exist along the southern periphery of a trough sweeping across the Upper Great Lakes. Evening/overnight storms may occur across parts of eastern NE, IA, and MO, and instability may be large enough to warrant at least low severe probabilities as the event nears in time.
Sunday/D5
Drying will occur aloft over parts of the Northeast as a wave moves into Quebec, but substantial low-level moisture will still support scattered thunderstorms ahead of a cold front across the Mid Atlantic. Shear will again be weak, but perhaps enough mean wind speeds will exist for storms to be mobile/produce areas of strong gusts.
To the west, low-level moisture is forecast to shift a bit farther north into the Dakotas, and this will occur beneath stronger northwest flow aloft. This area bears watching in later outlooks, as wind profiles may somewhat favor supercells. Predictability is currently low.
Mon/D6 to Wed/D8
While predictability decreases further during this time frame, moderate west to northwest flow aloft will remain from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes, which will spread into the Northeast D7/D8. If a wave does amplify within this flow regime, a corridor of damaging winds could develop given upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints along/south of the mean frontal zone (roughly IA to NY/PA by end of the period). Model variation is currently too great to depict an precise corridor.
..Jewell.. 08/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, August 10
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, August 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, August 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, August 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, August 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, August 12 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050900 SPC AC 050900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Aug 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
Saturday/D4
Southwest midlevel winds of only 25 kt will exist across the Northeast, while low-level moisture remains in place supporting up to 2000 J/kg MUCAPE with poor lapse rates aloft. This will support daytime thunderstorms over a large area from the Appalachians into the Northeast, and a few severe gusts cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, normal gusty outflow winds are to be expected.
To the west, an area of stronger instability is forecast across the Mid MO Valley, where northwesterly midlevel winds of 35 kt will exist along the southern periphery of a trough sweeping across the Upper Great Lakes. Evening/overnight storms may occur across parts of eastern NE, IA, and MO, and instability may be large enough to warrant at least low severe probabilities as the event nears in time.
Sunday/D5
Drying will occur aloft over parts of the Northeast as a wave moves into Quebec, but substantial low-level moisture will still support scattered thunderstorms ahead of a cold front across the Mid Atlantic. Shear will again be weak, but perhaps enough mean wind speeds will exist for storms to be mobile/produce areas of strong gusts.
To the west, low-level moisture is forecast to shift a bit farther north into the Dakotas, and this will occur beneath stronger northwest flow aloft. This area bears watching in later outlooks, as wind profiles may somewhat favor supercells. Predictability is currently low.
Mon/D6 to Wed/D8
While predictability decreases further during this time frame, moderate west to northwest flow aloft will remain from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes, which will spread into the Northeast D7/D8. If a wave does amplify within this flow regime, a corridor of damaging winds could develop given upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints along/south of the mean frontal zone (roughly IA to NY/PA by end of the period). Model variation is currently too great to depict an precise corridor.
..Jewell.. 08/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, August 11
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, August 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, August 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, August 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, August 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, August 12 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050900 SPC AC 050900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Aug 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
Saturday/D4
Southwest midlevel winds of only 25 kt will exist across the Northeast, while low-level moisture remains in place supporting up to 2000 J/kg MUCAPE with poor lapse rates aloft. This will support daytime thunderstorms over a large area from the Appalachians into the Northeast, and a few severe gusts cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, normal gusty outflow winds are to be expected.
To the west, an area of stronger instability is forecast across the Mid MO Valley, where northwesterly midlevel winds of 35 kt will exist along the southern periphery of a trough sweeping across the Upper Great Lakes. Evening/overnight storms may occur across parts of eastern NE, IA, and MO, and instability may be large enough to warrant at least low severe probabilities as the event nears in time.
Sunday/D5
Drying will occur aloft over parts of the Northeast as a wave moves into Quebec, but substantial low-level moisture will still support scattered thunderstorms ahead of a cold front across the Mid Atlantic. Shear will again be weak, but perhaps enough mean wind speeds will exist for storms to be mobile/produce areas of strong gusts.
To the west, low-level moisture is forecast to shift a bit farther north into the Dakotas, and this will occur beneath stronger northwest flow aloft. This area bears watching in later outlooks, as wind profiles may somewhat favor supercells. Predictability is currently low.
Mon/D6 to Wed/D8
While predictability decreases further during this time frame, moderate west to northwest flow aloft will remain from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes, which will spread into the Northeast D7/D8. If a wave does amplify within this flow regime, a corridor of damaging winds could develop given upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints along/south of the mean frontal zone (roughly IA to NY/PA by end of the period). Model variation is currently too great to depict an precise corridor.
..Jewell.. 08/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, August 12
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, August 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, August 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, August 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, August 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, August 12 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050900 SPC AC 050900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Aug 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
Saturday/D4
Southwest midlevel winds of only 25 kt will exist across the Northeast, while low-level moisture remains in place supporting up to 2000 J/kg MUCAPE with poor lapse rates aloft. This will support daytime thunderstorms over a large area from the Appalachians into the Northeast, and a few severe gusts cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, normal gusty outflow winds are to be expected.
To the west, an area of stronger instability is forecast across the Mid MO Valley, where northwesterly midlevel winds of 35 kt will exist along the southern periphery of a trough sweeping across the Upper Great Lakes. Evening/overnight storms may occur across parts of eastern NE, IA, and MO, and instability may be large enough to warrant at least low severe probabilities as the event nears in time.
Sunday/D5
Drying will occur aloft over parts of the Northeast as a wave moves into Quebec, but substantial low-level moisture will still support scattered thunderstorms ahead of a cold front across the Mid Atlantic. Shear will again be weak, but perhaps enough mean wind speeds will exist for storms to be mobile/produce areas of strong gusts.
To the west, low-level moisture is forecast to shift a bit farther north into the Dakotas, and this will occur beneath stronger northwest flow aloft. This area bears watching in later outlooks, as wind profiles may somewhat favor supercells. Predictability is currently low.
Mon/D6 to Wed/D8
While predictability decreases further during this time frame, moderate west to northwest flow aloft will remain from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes, which will spread into the Northeast D7/D8. If a wave does amplify within this flow regime, a corridor of damaging winds could develop given upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints along/south of the mean frontal zone (roughly IA to NY/PA by end of the period). Model variation is currently too great to depict an precise corridor.
..Jewell.. 08/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, August 5
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Thursday, August 6
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Friday, August 7
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Saturday, August 8
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, August 9
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, August 10
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, August 11
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, August 12
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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