Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Friday, August 14

Saturday, August 15

Sunday, August 16

Monday, August 17

Tuesday, August 18

Wednesday, August 19

Thursday, August 20

Friday, August 21

Outlook for Friday, August 14

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys, as well as southeast Virginia. Isolated severe wind gusts may also still occur in parts of the central Plains and from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic, as well as parts of the Northeast and Southwest.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 5%

wind 15%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 142232

Day 1 Convective Outlook AMEND 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0532 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Valid 142000Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA

AMENDED FOR INCREASED SEVERE PROBABILITIES IN SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA

SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys, as well as southeast Virginia. Isolated severe wind gusts may also still occur in parts of the central Plains and from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic, as well as parts of the Northeast and Southwest.

Southeast Virginia

Supercells which have developed across parts of southeast VA appear to be anchored to a surface boundary, and they should continue to pose some threat for large hail this evening as they track southeastward. Although low-level flow remains modest, locally greater effective SRH is present near this boundary, and a brief tornado appears possible. Otherwise, scattered damaging winds may also occur across parts of southeast VA with a loosely organized cluster moving east-southeastward over the next few hours. See Mesoscale Discussion 1982 for more details on the near-term severe threat across this region.

..Gleason/Squitieri.. 08/14/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1143 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026/

Mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys

Thunderstorms have largely weakened through the early morning across the middle Missouri Valley, with more of a lingering persistence across Illinois/Indiana. Scattered showers remain rather common, however, regionally with semi-prevalent cloud cover. Multiple MCVs persist regionally at midday, including across central Iowa, and more prominently near the Nebraska/Iowa border. Regional WSR-88D data from Omaha/Des Moines/Davenport continue to sample enhanced westerlies (35-50 kt) between 4-8 km AGL in association with these MCVs.

Primary severe risk across this region today will be linked to the amount of air mass recovery and associated destabilization that occurs along the southern periphery of the residual convection and ahead of the aforementioned slow-moving MCVs. Ample low-level moisture is in place, and differential heating between the residual cloud debris may yield an effective warm-front-like zone across southern Iowa or near the Iowa/Missouri border. The airmass along and south of this is forecast to destabilize and become moderately to strongly unstable by the late afternoon. This should result in renewed thunderstorm development by late afternoon into evening, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support organized updrafts and potentially some initial supercells. Modestly enhanced low-level winds/SRH could yield a tornado risk. Strong wind gusts will otherwise be possible with water-loaded downdrafts, as well as with any bowing segments through this evening.

Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic

Outflows/differential heating across the lower Ohio Valley will influenced thunderstorm redevelopment this afternoon, while storms are starting to develop/increase across the Appalachians vicinity. Vertical shear will generally be weak, but strong updrafts and ample moisture will yield the potential for wet microbursts regionally.

Central High Plains

A shortwave trough currently moving through the Lower Colorado River Valley is forecast to continue northeastward through the Four Corners. Ascent associated with this wave will combine with orographic lift in the foothills of the Rockies to support scattered convective initiation by early afternoon. Thunderstorms will then move northeastward into the moderately buoyant airmass over the central High Plains. Deep-layer shear will be modest but sufficient for a few organized updrafts capable of hail and damaging gusts.

Northeast States

Influenced by strong northwesterly flow aloft, a few stronger to locally severe relatively low-topped storms may occur this afternoon across northern/upstate New York into southern New England, with strong/gusty winds as the primary hazard as convection progresses southeastward.

Lower Colorado River

With a moist air mass across the region, strong heating will support afternoon airmass destabilization, yielding moderate buoyancy this afternoon. Slightly stronger mid-level flow is anticipated over the southern Nevada vicinity, supporting the potential for isolated strong wind gusts.

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

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Outlook for Saturday, August 15

Outlook Summary

Strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the central High Plains eastward into parts of the Midwest, Ohio Valley, southern/central Appalachians, and Carolinas.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 15%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 141725

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS…AND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS

### SUMMARY

Strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the central High Plains eastward into parts of the Midwest, Ohio Valley, southern/central Appalachians, and Carolinas.

Synopsis

The upper ridge is expected to broaden and expand westward on Saturday. Modest to regionally moderate flow aloft will be confined to the northern half of the CONUS. A convectively modified surface boundary from the Mid-Atlantic westward into the Midwest and central Plains will be the general focus for convection outside of MCV features moving around the upper ridge.

Midwest/Ohio Valley

An MCV is forecast to be in northern Illinois/southern Wisconsin Saturday morning. This feature will track eastward during the day. Scattered storms are expected near the MCV and along a surface boundary from the southern Great Lakes region into the central Appalachians. Early morning precipitation and cloud cover associated with the MCV is may limit surface heating, but the very moist airmass will not need much heating to destabilize. Damaging winds will be the main threat with a tornado or two possible, particularly near the MCV. Storms may only be organized for short periods given weak lapse rates and shear concentrated in the lower half of the troposphere.

Central High Plains into the Missouri Valley

Another MCV is expected to track eastward through the central Plains into Iowa/Missouri. Given the impacts of the preceding MCV on Friday, it is not clear how much destabilization, and therefore storm coverage will occur. Should afternoon storms develop, the strongest activity will likely be on the southern flank of the MCV from northeast Kansas into northern Missouri. Later in the evening, additional storms are possible along the cold front.

Farther west, flow aloft in the central Rockies will become more westerly. At the surface, continued moist upslope flow will promote scattered to numerous storms by afternoon. Cloud cover may keep temperatures somewhat cool, but steep lapse rates aloft and around 35-40 kt of effective shear near the terrain will support transient supercell structures capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. Storm/outflow interaction is likely with a few clusters propagating eastward with time.

Southern Appalachians into the Piedmont

Strong heating of at least low 70s F dewpoints will promote strong instability by the afternoon. Flow aloft will be weak to modest from the northwest. Though storms may not be very organized, scattered convection within the terrain may move east/southeast with time. One or more clusters may develop leading to localized corridors of wind damage potential.

Central/Northern Minnesota

A cold front will be the focus for potential isolated storm development. Mid-level forcing for ascent will be quite weak and thermodynamic profiles will be marginal. Should storms develop, isolated strong outflow winds would be possible. Severe potential remains too limited for probabilities.

Northeast Oregon into central Idaho

With a subtle shortwave trough moving through during the afternoon, thunderstorms are likely to develop within the Blue Mountains and move northeastward. Modest buoyancy and effective shear will promote a couple of stronger storms. Small hail and gusty outflow winds may occur, but severe potential appears limited.

..Wendt.. 08/14/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Sunday, August 16

Outlook Summary

Severe storms are possible within the Mid-Atlantic and in parts of the central High Plains Sunday afternoon and evening.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 141938

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC…AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Severe storms are possible within the Mid-Atlantic and in parts of the central High Plains Sunday afternoon and evening.

Mid-Atlantic

Embedded within broad northwesterly flow aloft, a mid-level shortwave trough will promote the development of a surface trough/modest low within the upper Ohio Valley vicinity. This trough is expected to extend southward into the Blue Ridge during the afternoon. Some convection will be possible in the northern Mid-Atlantic on Sunday morning. Outflow/differential heating from this activity will combine with the surface trough to promote scattered storm development during the afternoon. Mid 70s dewpoints and temperatures reaching the 90s F in some locations will lead to moderate/strong destabilization during the afternoon. Moderate mid-level flow should support at least modestly organized storms which could eventually evolve into one or more clusters. Wind damage will be possible with this activity.

Central High Plains

A surface high behind a cold front will keep easterly surface winds into the higher terrain of the central Rockies. Low-level moisture may be a touch higher than previous days (perhaps low 60s F) along with warmer surface temperatures. Effective shear from the Front Range into southeast Wyoming will be 35-40 kt with long hodographs. Given the potential for a few supercells during the afternoon, severe probabilities have been increased in the area with greatest confidence for large hail/severe winds.

Midwest/Ohio Valley

Thunderstorm development is probable along parts of southward-moving cold front during the afternoon/early evening. Even with only weak/modest shear parallel to the front, a southward propagating cluster or two may develop given the frontal motion. The primary uncertainty is where this will occur given lack of stronger convergence along much of the boundary. With steep low-level lapse rates south of the front along with moderate to strong instability, damaging winds would be possible with these storms.

..Wendt.. 08/14/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Monday, August 17

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, August 17	predictability too low
Day 5	Tuesday, August 18	predictability too low
Day 6	Wednesday, August 19	predictability too low
Day 7	Thursday, August 20	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, August 21	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140754 SPC AC 140754

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Mon

A cold front is forecast to extend from the Lower OH/TN Valleys toward the southern Mid-Atlantic Monday morning. Some severe risk could develop ahead of the boundary as it impinges on a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. However, vertical shear is expected to remain modest (20-30 kt 0-6 km shear). Thunderstorm clusters could pose a risk for locally damaging wind gusts, especially if sufficient clustering occurs given moderate to strong downstream instability. Severe probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if a more organized severe risk appears more likely.

Days 5-8/Tue-Fri

Low-amplitude westerly flow aloft will strengthen some around Day 5 or 6/Tue or Wed as a series of upper shortwave troughs move across the northern Plains to the Great Lakes and Northeast through Day 7/Thu. This could result in increase severe potential across portions of the Plains, Midwest, and perhaps the Northeast as the upper troughs pivot eastward. Given a prior cold frontal passage and surface high pressure across the Midwest through at least parts of Tuesday, it is uncertain how low-level moisture/thermodynamic recovery will evolve ahead of the upper feature. Depending on trends, severe probabilities may become necessary in later outlooks.

..Leitman.. 08/14/2026

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Outlook for Tuesday, August 18

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, August 17	predictability too low
Day 5	Tuesday, August 18	predictability too low
Day 6	Wednesday, August 19	predictability too low
Day 7	Thursday, August 20	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, August 21	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140754 SPC AC 140754

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Mon

A cold front is forecast to extend from the Lower OH/TN Valleys toward the southern Mid-Atlantic Monday morning. Some severe risk could develop ahead of the boundary as it impinges on a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. However, vertical shear is expected to remain modest (20-30 kt 0-6 km shear). Thunderstorm clusters could pose a risk for locally damaging wind gusts, especially if sufficient clustering occurs given moderate to strong downstream instability. Severe probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if a more organized severe risk appears more likely.

Days 5-8/Tue-Fri

Low-amplitude westerly flow aloft will strengthen some around Day 5 or 6/Tue or Wed as a series of upper shortwave troughs move across the northern Plains to the Great Lakes and Northeast through Day 7/Thu. This could result in increase severe potential across portions of the Plains, Midwest, and perhaps the Northeast as the upper troughs pivot eastward. Given a prior cold frontal passage and surface high pressure across the Midwest through at least parts of Tuesday, it is uncertain how low-level moisture/thermodynamic recovery will evolve ahead of the upper feature. Depending on trends, severe probabilities may become necessary in later outlooks.

..Leitman.. 08/14/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, August 19

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, August 17	predictability too low
Day 5	Tuesday, August 18	predictability too low
Day 6	Wednesday, August 19	predictability too low
Day 7	Thursday, August 20	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, August 21	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140754 SPC AC 140754

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Mon

A cold front is forecast to extend from the Lower OH/TN Valleys toward the southern Mid-Atlantic Monday morning. Some severe risk could develop ahead of the boundary as it impinges on a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. However, vertical shear is expected to remain modest (20-30 kt 0-6 km shear). Thunderstorm clusters could pose a risk for locally damaging wind gusts, especially if sufficient clustering occurs given moderate to strong downstream instability. Severe probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if a more organized severe risk appears more likely.

Days 5-8/Tue-Fri

Low-amplitude westerly flow aloft will strengthen some around Day 5 or 6/Tue or Wed as a series of upper shortwave troughs move across the northern Plains to the Great Lakes and Northeast through Day 7/Thu. This could result in increase severe potential across portions of the Plains, Midwest, and perhaps the Northeast as the upper troughs pivot eastward. Given a prior cold frontal passage and surface high pressure across the Midwest through at least parts of Tuesday, it is uncertain how low-level moisture/thermodynamic recovery will evolve ahead of the upper feature. Depending on trends, severe probabilities may become necessary in later outlooks.

..Leitman.. 08/14/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Thursday, August 20

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, August 17	predictability too low
Day 5	Tuesday, August 18	predictability too low
Day 6	Wednesday, August 19	predictability too low
Day 7	Thursday, August 20	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, August 21	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140754 SPC AC 140754

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Mon

A cold front is forecast to extend from the Lower OH/TN Valleys toward the southern Mid-Atlantic Monday morning. Some severe risk could develop ahead of the boundary as it impinges on a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. However, vertical shear is expected to remain modest (20-30 kt 0-6 km shear). Thunderstorm clusters could pose a risk for locally damaging wind gusts, especially if sufficient clustering occurs given moderate to strong downstream instability. Severe probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if a more organized severe risk appears more likely.

Days 5-8/Tue-Fri

Low-amplitude westerly flow aloft will strengthen some around Day 5 or 6/Tue or Wed as a series of upper shortwave troughs move across the northern Plains to the Great Lakes and Northeast through Day 7/Thu. This could result in increase severe potential across portions of the Plains, Midwest, and perhaps the Northeast as the upper troughs pivot eastward. Given a prior cold frontal passage and surface high pressure across the Midwest through at least parts of Tuesday, it is uncertain how low-level moisture/thermodynamic recovery will evolve ahead of the upper feature. Depending on trends, severe probabilities may become necessary in later outlooks.

..Leitman.. 08/14/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Friday, August 21

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, August 17	predictability too low
Day 5	Tuesday, August 18	predictability too low
Day 6	Wednesday, August 19	predictability too low
Day 7	Thursday, August 20	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, August 21	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140754 SPC AC 140754

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Mon

A cold front is forecast to extend from the Lower OH/TN Valleys toward the southern Mid-Atlantic Monday morning. Some severe risk could develop ahead of the boundary as it impinges on a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. However, vertical shear is expected to remain modest (20-30 kt 0-6 km shear). Thunderstorm clusters could pose a risk for locally damaging wind gusts, especially if sufficient clustering occurs given moderate to strong downstream instability. Severe probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if a more organized severe risk appears more likely.

Days 5-8/Tue-Fri

Low-amplitude westerly flow aloft will strengthen some around Day 5 or 6/Tue or Wed as a series of upper shortwave troughs move across the northern Plains to the Great Lakes and Northeast through Day 7/Thu. This could result in increase severe potential across portions of the Plains, Midwest, and perhaps the Northeast as the upper troughs pivot eastward. Given a prior cold frontal passage and surface high pressure across the Midwest through at least parts of Tuesday, it is uncertain how low-level moisture/thermodynamic recovery will evolve ahead of the upper feature. Depending on trends, severe probabilities may become necessary in later outlooks.

..Leitman.. 08/14/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

National Risk Overview

Friday, August 14: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Saturday, August 15: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Sunday, August 16: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Monday, August 17: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, August 18: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, August 19: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, August 20: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, August 21: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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