Severe Weather Outlook
Hayley here - Do you want to see severe weather in your calendar?
* it's like an add-on for your digital calendar NOT a paper calendar
National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, August 14
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible in parts of the central Plains and from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 140557
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible in parts of the central Plains and from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic.
Mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys
A broad anticyclonic flow pattern will be in place over much of the central U.S. today, as a subtle embedded shortwave trough moves through the mid Missouri Valley. Ahead of this feature, a quasi-stationary front will be in place from southern Iowa east-southeastward into north-central Illinois. This boundary will be the focus for convective development this afternoon. Surface dewpoints along the boundary will be in the 70s F, which will result in strong destabilization by afternoon. Surface-based convective initiation is expected along the instability gradient during the late afternoon to the south of Omaha. From these initial storms, a line is expected to organize and move eastward across south-central Iowa and far northern Missouri during the late afternoon and early evening.
RAP forecast soundings ahead of the line at 00Z from Des Moines southward into far northern Missouri have MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3500 J/kg range. Some directional shear is present in the low-levels, and 0-6 km shear is in the 30 to 35 knot range. This environment will be favorable for bowing line segments capable of severe wind gusts. An embedded supercell with a hail threat will also be possible. The severe threat is expected to move eastward into northwest and north-central Illinois during the evening.
Central Plains
Southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place today over much of the western and central U.S. A subtle shortwave trough will move northeastward into the central High Plains. Large-scale ascent associated with the trough and topographic lift in the foothills of the Rockies will be favorable for scattered convective initiation by early afternoon. Thunderstorms will move northeastward into the central High Plains and into a moderately unstable airmass. Some RAP forecast soundings in east-central Colorado during the late afternoon have 0-6 km shear around 25 knots with low to mid-level lapse rates exceeding 7 C/km. This will likely support isolated severe wind gusts and hail.
Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic
West-northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place today over much of the northeastern U.S. At the surface, an axis of moderate instability will develop by afternoon from the Ohio Valley east-southeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. Along and near the instability axis, low-level convergence will be the primary focus for convective initiation. Near and downstream of these pockets of convergence, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop. The moderate instability with precipitable water values in the 2 to 2.2 inch range should support a threat for isolated severe wet downbursts.
..Broyles/Lyons.. 08/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Saturday, August 15
Outlook Summary
Strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the central High Plains eastward into parts of the Midwest, Ohio Valley, southern/central Appalachians, and Carolinas.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 140551
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS…AND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS
### SUMMARY
Strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the central High Plains eastward into parts of the Midwest, Ohio Valley, southern/central Appalachians, and Carolinas.
Ohio Valley
An MCV is forecast to be located in the vicinity of eastern IA/northern IL Saturday morning. A surface boundary will be draped northwest to southeast across lower MI toward WV while the surface low/MCV shifts east across southern Lake MI toward the Lower Great Lakes through the evening. A very moist airmass will be in place, and at least a narrow corridor of strong instability may develop. Spread among forecast guidance remains fairly large regarding these surface features and corridors of greater destabilization. Nevertheless, stronger vertical shear in the vicinity of the surface low/MCV will support organized severe convection. Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two will be possible as convection develops near the MCV and southeastward along the surface boundary toward WV/eastern KY.
VA/Carolinas into the Southeast
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop over higher terrain within a very moist and moderately unstable airmass Saturday afternoon. Vertical shear will remain modest, especially with southward extent into GA/FL, but strong heating could support sporadic downbursts within the high-PW environment. If sufficient clustering occurs over higher terrain, a forward-propagating cluster could move across portions of the Carolinas, producing greater risk for damaging gusts.
Central High Plains to the MO Valley
Another MCV is forecast to be located over KS/NE, moving toward the Mid-MO Valley. Downstream destabilization is uncertain as this airmass will have been modified by the downstream MCV moving into the Midwest. Meanwhile, a moist airmass will be in place westward into the central High Plains. Upslope flow will support scattered thunderstorm development over higher terrain by early/mid afternoon. As convection spreads eastward into eastern CO and vicinity, steep lapse rates and modest but favorable shear profiles will support at least transient organized cells capable of producing large hail and damaging gusts. Additional convection may develop eastward across NE ahead of a surface cold front, mainly posing a risk for isolated damaging gusts.
..Leitman.. 08/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Sunday, August 16
Outlook Summary
Strong to severe storms are possible from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Mid-Atlantic, and across the High Plains Sunday afternoon and evening.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 140637
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC…AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Strong to severe storms are possible from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Mid-Atlantic, and across the High Plains Sunday afternoon and evening.
Mid-MS Valley to Mid-Atlantic
An upper trough will modestly deepen over the Great Lakes and Northeast on Sunday, resulting in weak mid/upper height falls. Moderate westerly flow aloft will overspread a seasonally moist airmass as a surface front sags southward across the Midwest and the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic regions through the period. At least a couple MCVs may be located within this broader region of enhanced westerly flow from the Mid-MS Valley to the Northeast. These features, along with the southward-moving surface front will be a focus for scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening. While details remain uncertain, the overall kinematic and thermodynamic parameter space will support strong to severe storms, mainly capable of damaging wind gusts.
..High Plains
Moist upslope flow will once again support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across the High Plains on Sunday. Upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints will result in moderate destabilization. Flow through around 500 mb will remain weak, but vertically veering wind profiles, and westerlies increasing with height above 500 mb will support effective shear magnitudes greater than 30 kt and elongated/straight hodographs are evident in forecast soundings. Isolated strong to severe storms mainly capable of producing large hail will be possible.
..Leitman.. 08/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Monday, August 17
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, August 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, August 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, August 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, August 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, August 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140754 SPC AC 140754
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Mon
A cold front is forecast to extend from the Lower OH/TN Valleys toward the southern Mid-Atlantic Monday morning. Some severe risk could develop ahead of the boundary as it impinges on a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. However, vertical shear is expected to remain modest (20-30 kt 0-6 km shear). Thunderstorm clusters could pose a risk for locally damaging wind gusts, especially if sufficient clustering occurs given moderate to strong downstream instability. Severe probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if a more organized severe risk appears more likely.
Days 5-8/Tue-Fri
Low-amplitude westerly flow aloft will strengthen some around Day 5 or 6/Tue or Wed as a series of upper shortwave troughs move across the northern Plains to the Great Lakes and Northeast through Day 7/Thu. This could result in increase severe potential across portions of the Plains, Midwest, and perhaps the Northeast as the upper troughs pivot eastward. Given a prior cold frontal passage and surface high pressure across the Midwest through at least parts of Tuesday, it is uncertain how low-level moisture/thermodynamic recovery will evolve ahead of the upper feature. Depending on trends, severe probabilities may become necessary in later outlooks.
..Leitman.. 08/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, August 18
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, August 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, August 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, August 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, August 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, August 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140754 SPC AC 140754
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Mon
A cold front is forecast to extend from the Lower OH/TN Valleys toward the southern Mid-Atlantic Monday morning. Some severe risk could develop ahead of the boundary as it impinges on a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. However, vertical shear is expected to remain modest (20-30 kt 0-6 km shear). Thunderstorm clusters could pose a risk for locally damaging wind gusts, especially if sufficient clustering occurs given moderate to strong downstream instability. Severe probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if a more organized severe risk appears more likely.
Days 5-8/Tue-Fri
Low-amplitude westerly flow aloft will strengthen some around Day 5 or 6/Tue or Wed as a series of upper shortwave troughs move across the northern Plains to the Great Lakes and Northeast through Day 7/Thu. This could result in increase severe potential across portions of the Plains, Midwest, and perhaps the Northeast as the upper troughs pivot eastward. Given a prior cold frontal passage and surface high pressure across the Midwest through at least parts of Tuesday, it is uncertain how low-level moisture/thermodynamic recovery will evolve ahead of the upper feature. Depending on trends, severe probabilities may become necessary in later outlooks.
..Leitman.. 08/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, August 19
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, August 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, August 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, August 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, August 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, August 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140754 SPC AC 140754
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Mon
A cold front is forecast to extend from the Lower OH/TN Valleys toward the southern Mid-Atlantic Monday morning. Some severe risk could develop ahead of the boundary as it impinges on a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. However, vertical shear is expected to remain modest (20-30 kt 0-6 km shear). Thunderstorm clusters could pose a risk for locally damaging wind gusts, especially if sufficient clustering occurs given moderate to strong downstream instability. Severe probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if a more organized severe risk appears more likely.
Days 5-8/Tue-Fri
Low-amplitude westerly flow aloft will strengthen some around Day 5 or 6/Tue or Wed as a series of upper shortwave troughs move across the northern Plains to the Great Lakes and Northeast through Day 7/Thu. This could result in increase severe potential across portions of the Plains, Midwest, and perhaps the Northeast as the upper troughs pivot eastward. Given a prior cold frontal passage and surface high pressure across the Midwest through at least parts of Tuesday, it is uncertain how low-level moisture/thermodynamic recovery will evolve ahead of the upper feature. Depending on trends, severe probabilities may become necessary in later outlooks.
..Leitman.. 08/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, August 20
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, August 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, August 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, August 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, August 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, August 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140754 SPC AC 140754
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Mon
A cold front is forecast to extend from the Lower OH/TN Valleys toward the southern Mid-Atlantic Monday morning. Some severe risk could develop ahead of the boundary as it impinges on a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. However, vertical shear is expected to remain modest (20-30 kt 0-6 km shear). Thunderstorm clusters could pose a risk for locally damaging wind gusts, especially if sufficient clustering occurs given moderate to strong downstream instability. Severe probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if a more organized severe risk appears more likely.
Days 5-8/Tue-Fri
Low-amplitude westerly flow aloft will strengthen some around Day 5 or 6/Tue or Wed as a series of upper shortwave troughs move across the northern Plains to the Great Lakes and Northeast through Day 7/Thu. This could result in increase severe potential across portions of the Plains, Midwest, and perhaps the Northeast as the upper troughs pivot eastward. Given a prior cold frontal passage and surface high pressure across the Midwest through at least parts of Tuesday, it is uncertain how low-level moisture/thermodynamic recovery will evolve ahead of the upper feature. Depending on trends, severe probabilities may become necessary in later outlooks.
..Leitman.. 08/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, August 21
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, August 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, August 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, August 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, August 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, August 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140754 SPC AC 140754
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Mon
A cold front is forecast to extend from the Lower OH/TN Valleys toward the southern Mid-Atlantic Monday morning. Some severe risk could develop ahead of the boundary as it impinges on a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. However, vertical shear is expected to remain modest (20-30 kt 0-6 km shear). Thunderstorm clusters could pose a risk for locally damaging wind gusts, especially if sufficient clustering occurs given moderate to strong downstream instability. Severe probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if a more organized severe risk appears more likely.
Days 5-8/Tue-Fri
Low-amplitude westerly flow aloft will strengthen some around Day 5 or 6/Tue or Wed as a series of upper shortwave troughs move across the northern Plains to the Great Lakes and Northeast through Day 7/Thu. This could result in increase severe potential across portions of the Plains, Midwest, and perhaps the Northeast as the upper troughs pivot eastward. Given a prior cold frontal passage and surface high pressure across the Midwest through at least parts of Tuesday, it is uncertain how low-level moisture/thermodynamic recovery will evolve ahead of the upper feature. Depending on trends, severe probabilities may become necessary in later outlooks.
..Leitman.. 08/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, August 14
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Saturday, August 15
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Sunday, August 16
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Monday, August 17
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, August 18
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, August 19
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, August 20
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, August 21
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Your Severe Outlook
Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.
Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.
Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.
About Severe Weather Outlook . com
SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.
- tornado hq - live severe weather warnings
- cyclocane - hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones
- tornado solitaire - play cards while you monitor the US severe weather threat
- tertremo - live view of earthquakes around the world
- earthquake solitaire - get live earthquake updates as you play your favorite card game