Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, July 6
Outlook Summary
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts appear possible across the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota this afternoon and evening. Isolated to scattered damaging wind gusts will also be possible with the strongest storms in the southern Mid-Atlantic, Carolinas, and ArkLaTex regions.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 061628
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Valid 061630Z - 071200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC…NORTHERN PLAINS…AND THE ARKLATEX REGION
### SUMMARY
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts appear possible across the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota this afternoon and evening. Isolated to scattered damaging wind gusts will also be possible with the strongest storms in the southern Mid-Atlantic, Carolinas, and ArkLaTex regions.
MN/ND
Morning water vapory imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough over southern Manitoba, with its associated surface cold front sagging southward across ND. This front will serve as the focus for scattered thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon from northern MN into eastern ND. Strong heating ahead of the front and dewpoints near 70F will yield MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg. Forecast soundings show relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable deep-layer shear for supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. These storms may persist through the evening, spreading southward into central MN and eastern SD.
Mid Atlantic/Carolinas
Another day of scattered afternoon thunderstorms will affect much of the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas region today. Vertical shear and steering flow is rather weak, suggesting storms will be poorly organized. However, strong heating and steep low-level lapse rates, combined with substantial CAPE in forecast soundings, suggest that the strongest cells will pose the risk of damaging wind gusts over a relatively broad area again today.
AR/LA/OK/TX
Strong heating and ample low-level moisture will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms again today over much of AR, southeast OK, northeast TX, and northern LA. This is near a mid-level trough where lapse rates and mid-level temperatures are more favorable for robust up/downdrafts capable of damaging wind gusts. Have opted for a small SLGT risk for parts of this area where convective coverage appears highest.
Northern UT into WY
Scattered high-based fast-moving thunderstorms are expected this afternoon over northern UT, moving northeastward into western and northern WY. The strongest of these cells will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts.
..Hart/Weinman.. 07/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Tuesday, July 7
Outlook Summary
Severe storms producing damaging winds are most likely over parts of the Dakotas into Minnesota from Tuesday afternoon into the overnight, with other isolated storms producing hail or wind over the northern High Plain. Daytime storms may produce isolated wind damage over northeast Texas and over Virginia and North Carolina.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 061707
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Severe storms producing damaging winds are most likely over parts of the Dakotas into Minnesota from Tuesday afternoon into the overnight, with other isolated storms producing hail or wind over the northern High Plain. Daytime storms may produce isolated wind damage over northeast Texas and over Virginia and North Carolina.
Dakotas into Minnesota
A low-amplitude shortwave trough will move eastward across the northern Plains Tuesday, with increasing mid and high level winds aloft enhancing shear. Low pressure will develop over western SD and NE, with a quasi-stationary front extending eastward across SD into central MN. Southerly winds will aid boundary layer mixing with strong heating from the central High Plains into central SD, while upper 60s to near 70 F dewpoints persist near the stationary front with easterly surface winds.
Areas of thunderstorms may occur early in the day from MT into ND where elevated instability will exist. Some of this activity may transition to surface based by afternoon, with a probable MCS developing into northern SD and moving into western MN overnight. MLCAPE of 2000-3000 along with a nocturnal low-level jet will support corridors of wind damage. Other storms are likely during the late afternoon near the low and extending southwestward within the surface trough. Some of these cells may produce large hail along with locally damaging gusts.
Northeast Texas into western Louisiana
A weak midlevel trough will remain from the lower to mid MS Valley into eastern TX, with cooler temperatures aloft. Daytime heating and 70s F dewpoints may yield strong instability across the northeast TX area, where clusters of storms appear likely after 20Z. Modest lapse rates aloft and weak shear will favor robust but short duration storms with locally damaging downbursts.
..Virginia and North Carolina
Strong heating and weak westerlies aloft will induce a surface trough across central VA into the Carolinas, with MUCAPE over 1500 J/kg likely developing. Storms may develop within this trough by peak heating, and also over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Locally damaging gusts may occur, especially with any congealing clusters.
..Jewell.. 07/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Wednesday, July 8
Outlook Summary
Clusters of strong thunderstorms with potential to produce severe hail and wind may evolve across parts of the Upper Midwest into central Great Plains Wednesday through Wednesday night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 060731
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO UPPER MIDWEST
### SUMMARY
Clusters of strong thunderstorms with potential to produce severe hail and wind may evolve across parts of the Upper Midwest into central Great Plains Wednesday through Wednesday night.
Discussion
It appears that notable remnant mid-level troughing will begin to dig southeast of the Hudson Bay vicinity Wednesday through Wednesday night, while an upstream short wave trough pivots northeast then north of the Canadian Rockies toward the Northwest Territories. Within the westerlies to the south of this regime, subtle mid-level ridging may overspread the northern Rockies, with similar amplitude downstream troughing digging across the northern Great Plains, Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region.
Beneath this regime, a weak cold front, perhaps reinforced by convective outflow in some locations, is forecast to overspread much of the remainder of the Upper Midwest/adjacent Great Lakes and middle Missouri Valley vicinity by late Wednesday night. This may be preceded across parts of the central Great Plains by conglomerate convective outflow emanating from considerable thunderstorm development spreading off the Laramie Range/Front Range vicinity, within steering flow trending northwesterly through the period.
Great Plains/Upper Midwest
Steeper mid-level lapse rates associated with a remnant plume of elevated mixed-layer air may become increasingly confined to the higher plains during this period. However, seasonably high moisture content along/ahead of the southward advancing cold front may still become supportive of mixed-layer CAPE of 1500-2000+ J/kg with daytime heating.
It remains uncertain whether an evolving cluster of storms, and/or a possible significant MCV emerging from it, will support continuing or renewed organized thunderstorm development posing a risk for severe wind gusts into and through the Upper Midwest during the day Wednesday. However, it is possible that destabilization in its wake could become sufficient to support strong thunderstorm development posing a risk for severe hail and wind, ahead of the southward advancing cold front later Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Otherwise, guidance suggests considerable thunderstorm activity, initiating off the higher terrain of southeastern Wyoming through central Colorado by late Wednesday, may gradually intensify and consolidate within a more unstable environment near a broad/weak surface cyclone developing across the high plains. Aided by a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet, there appears at least potential for this activity to organize with potential to swaths of strong to severe surface gusts Wednesday evening, after initially posing a risk for severe hail and localized downbursts.
..Kerr.. 07/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Thursday, July 9
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, July 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, July 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, July 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, July 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, July 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060900 SPC AC 060900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range model output continues to indicate the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid/upper high across the lower Colorado Valley and Plateau late this week into next weekend, which may continue expanding and encompassing a significant portion of the interior U.S. by early next week. How far north and northeast this builds remains unclear; however, a plume of very warm elevated mixed layer air advecting on strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of this anticyclonic regime will contribute to an environment conditionally conducive to organized severe thunderstorm development.
It appears that this could focus anywhere from the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity through the Great Lakes into the Northeast. By early next week (the Day 8-9 time frame), in particular, at least some output suggests that a vigorous short wave trough rounding the ridge may be accompanied by strong cyclogenesis, which could promote widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of New England into northern Mid Atlantic. Given the uncertainties associated with the extended time frame and model spread/discrepancies, severe weather probabilities remain less than 15 percent for this period, but it is possible that this could change sometime in later outlook updates for this period.
..Kerr.. 07/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, July 10
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, July 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, July 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, July 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, July 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, July 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060900 SPC AC 060900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range model output continues to indicate the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid/upper high across the lower Colorado Valley and Plateau late this week into next weekend, which may continue expanding and encompassing a significant portion of the interior U.S. by early next week. How far north and northeast this builds remains unclear; however, a plume of very warm elevated mixed layer air advecting on strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of this anticyclonic regime will contribute to an environment conditionally conducive to organized severe thunderstorm development.
It appears that this could focus anywhere from the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity through the Great Lakes into the Northeast. By early next week (the Day 8-9 time frame), in particular, at least some output suggests that a vigorous short wave trough rounding the ridge may be accompanied by strong cyclogenesis, which could promote widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of New England into northern Mid Atlantic. Given the uncertainties associated with the extended time frame and model spread/discrepancies, severe weather probabilities remain less than 15 percent for this period, but it is possible that this could change sometime in later outlook updates for this period.
..Kerr.. 07/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, July 11
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, July 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, July 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, July 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, July 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, July 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060900 SPC AC 060900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range model output continues to indicate the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid/upper high across the lower Colorado Valley and Plateau late this week into next weekend, which may continue expanding and encompassing a significant portion of the interior U.S. by early next week. How far north and northeast this builds remains unclear; however, a plume of very warm elevated mixed layer air advecting on strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of this anticyclonic regime will contribute to an environment conditionally conducive to organized severe thunderstorm development.
It appears that this could focus anywhere from the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity through the Great Lakes into the Northeast. By early next week (the Day 8-9 time frame), in particular, at least some output suggests that a vigorous short wave trough rounding the ridge may be accompanied by strong cyclogenesis, which could promote widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of New England into northern Mid Atlantic. Given the uncertainties associated with the extended time frame and model spread/discrepancies, severe weather probabilities remain less than 15 percent for this period, but it is possible that this could change sometime in later outlook updates for this period.
..Kerr.. 07/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, July 12
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, July 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, July 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, July 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, July 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, July 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060900 SPC AC 060900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range model output continues to indicate the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid/upper high across the lower Colorado Valley and Plateau late this week into next weekend, which may continue expanding and encompassing a significant portion of the interior U.S. by early next week. How far north and northeast this builds remains unclear; however, a plume of very warm elevated mixed layer air advecting on strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of this anticyclonic regime will contribute to an environment conditionally conducive to organized severe thunderstorm development.
It appears that this could focus anywhere from the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity through the Great Lakes into the Northeast. By early next week (the Day 8-9 time frame), in particular, at least some output suggests that a vigorous short wave trough rounding the ridge may be accompanied by strong cyclogenesis, which could promote widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of New England into northern Mid Atlantic. Given the uncertainties associated with the extended time frame and model spread/discrepancies, severe weather probabilities remain less than 15 percent for this period, but it is possible that this could change sometime in later outlook updates for this period.
..Kerr.. 07/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, July 13
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, July 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, July 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, July 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, July 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, July 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060900 SPC AC 060900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range model output continues to indicate the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid/upper high across the lower Colorado Valley and Plateau late this week into next weekend, which may continue expanding and encompassing a significant portion of the interior U.S. by early next week. How far north and northeast this builds remains unclear; however, a plume of very warm elevated mixed layer air advecting on strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of this anticyclonic regime will contribute to an environment conditionally conducive to organized severe thunderstorm development.
It appears that this could focus anywhere from the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity through the Great Lakes into the Northeast. By early next week (the Day 8-9 time frame), in particular, at least some output suggests that a vigorous short wave trough rounding the ridge may be accompanied by strong cyclogenesis, which could promote widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of New England into northern Mid Atlantic. Given the uncertainties associated with the extended time frame and model spread/discrepancies, severe weather probabilities remain less than 15 percent for this period, but it is possible that this could change sometime in later outlook updates for this period.
..Kerr.. 07/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, July 6
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Tuesday, July 7
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Wednesday, July 8
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Thursday, July 9
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, July 10
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, July 11
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, July 12
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, July 13
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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