Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, August 7
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms capable of scattered damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon and early evening over parts of the Mid-Atlantic states. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across portions of the central U.S. and Arizona.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 071234
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 AM CDT Fri Aug 07 2026
Valid 071300Z - 081200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms capable of scattered damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon and early evening over parts of the Mid-Atlantic states. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across portions of the central U.S. and Arizona.
Mid-Atlantic
A relatively nondescript pattern is located over the region between a Bermuda high and troughing over the Upper Midwest. Seasonably strong heating of a moist airmass (12 UTC Dulles, VA raob sampled a 14 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio) will support a destabilizing boundary layer and scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon. A few thunderstorm clusters will probably evolve through the late afternoon into the early evening as this activity moves through the I-95 corridor. Isolated strong to locally severe gusts (i.e., 50-60 mph) capable of scattered wind damage will be the primary threat with the stronger cores. ### Mid-Missouri Valley into the Lake Superior region
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough moving southeastward over the Red River Valley towards the Upper Great Lakes later today. In response to forcing for ascent associated with the disturbance, a couple of ongoing thunderstorm clusters will probably continue this morning. There is low confidence in the evolution of these clusters and an associated severe risk. Nonetheless, as a cold front continues to push southeast across the Upper Midwest later today, additional storm development is likely but details are nebulous at this time. Model guidance indicates a greater overlap of CAPE/shear may focus across western IA later this afternoon. Will re-evaluate in subsequent outlook updates for whether a mesoscale corridor can be identified with a locally greater severe risk within the larger Marginal Risk denoting isolated hail/wind potential.
Southern High Plains into the Ozarks
Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop across northeast NM into the TX Panhandle this afternoon. Relatively high uncertainty remains regarding storm placement removed from the higher terrain of northeast NM. Regardless, ample heating of an adequately moist but deepening boundary layer will support a thermodynamic profile favoring severe gusts with the stronger cores and associated outflow.
Further east into OK, KS, and the Ozarks, ongoing elevated storms from northern OK into eastern KS are likely rooted near the base of the EML. This activity will probably diminish in spatial extent through midday, but it is possible additional storms will develop along the outflow and could yield localized strong/severe storm potential. Will defer severe highlights at this time due to low predictability.
Arizona
Latest convection-allowing model ensembles and MPAS guidance imply some risk for widely scattered storms to develop over the Mogollon Rim and the higher terrain in southeast AZ and gradually spread into the lower deserts this evening. Given the steep lapse rates preceding this potential convection and possible scenario, have introduced low-severe wind probabilities.
Nebraska/South Dakota
Elevated convection is expected to develop across portions of northern NE and southern SD during the overnight hours tonight as isentropic ascent increases in tandem with a modest intensification of a low-level jet. Low-level moistening through 850 mb under a plume of 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates should promote adequate buoyancy for a few robust updrafts (though confidence in storm coverage is limited due to the weak nature of the forcing for ascent). However, strong shear across the region will likely promote organized convection, including a supercell or two, capable of producing large hail.
..Smith/Kerr.. 08/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Saturday, August 8
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern Plains southeastward into the lower to mid Missouri Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 070557
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Fri Aug 07 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern Plains southeastward into the lower to mid Missouri Valley.
Central and Northern Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley
At mid-levels, northwesterly flow will be in place on Saturday over much of the north-central U.S. as the southern edge of a jet streak moves across the northern Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward through the Dakotas. To the south of the front, a moist axis is forecast to be in place from central South Dakota southward into southern Nebraska and eastward into north-central Missouri. Moderate to strong instability appears likely to develop along the moist axis by afternoon. Large-scale ascent will be relatively weak throughout the region which will keep convection isolated. The most favorable areas for isolated thunderstorm development could be over central and eastern Nebraska, where some models focus low-level convergence near a low-level jet in the evening. Additional storms could develop along a moisture gradient in northern Missouri. NAM forecast soundings from Nebraska into southern South Dakota in the late afternoon have 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 45 knot range with steep low-level lapse rates. This could support supercells and organized multicells capable of severe wind gusts and hail. Isolated severe gusts could also occur southeastward along and near the instability gradient in northern Missouri.
..Broyles.. 08/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Sunday, August 9
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening from parts of the central and northern Plains east-southeastward into the southern Great Lakes region.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 070723
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Fri Aug 07 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening from parts of the central and northern Plains east-southeastward into the southern Great Lakes region.
Central and Northern Plains/Mid Missouri Valley/Southern Great Lakes
At the surface, a cold front will advance southward into the north-central states on Sunday, being positioned from South Dakota eastward into Wisconsin by afternoon. Surface dewpoints near and to the south of the front will be in the 60s and 70s F, which will contribute to the development of moderate instability. Large-scale ascent over this unstable airmass will remain relatively weak. In spite of this, isolated thunderstorms are expected to form in areas where low-level convergence becomes maximized. Model forecasts suggest that the most favorable locations could be near the front in South Dakota and from northeastern Nebraska into southern Iowa along the northern edge of the stronger low-level flow. In both of these locations, moderate to strong instability coupled with moderate deep-layer shear should be sufficient for a severe threat. Severe wind gusts will be the most likely hazard during the late afternoon and early evening with cell clusters or short line segments that move southeastward along and near the instability axis. Hail could also occur mainly in the central and northern Plains, where mid-level lapse rates will be steepest.
..Broyles.. 08/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Monday, August 10
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, August 10 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, August 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, August 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, August 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, August 14 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070859 SPC AC 070859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri Aug 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6
A broad cyclonic flow pattern is forecast to remain in place from the north-central U.S. to the Northeast during the early to mid-week. On the southern edge of the stronger flow, it appears that an east-to-west corridor of moisture and instability will remain in place from the central Plains eastward into the Midwest. On Monday, isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible during the afternoon and evening along and near the northern edge of the stronger instability, from eastern Nebraska eastward into the southern Great Lakes. The greatest convective coverage is expected to be from northern Illinois eastward into western Pennsylvania, where low-level flow is forecast to be maximized. Moderate deep-layer shear along this zone is forecast to be favorable for a severe threat Monday afternoon and evening. Supercells and multicell line segments will have potential to produce severe wind gusts.
On Tuesday and Wednesday, model forecasts suggest that a front will move southward into northern sections of the Ohio Valley, while the instability axis remains in a similar position further west near the Omaha area. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will again be possible in the afternoon and evening, near and to the north of the instability axis. An isolated severe threat could develop with storms that form within or near the strongest instability. However, predictability is low concerning where the greatest potential for severe storms will be.
Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8
On Thursday and Friday, west to northwesterly mid-level flow is forecast over much of the eastern half of the nation. A moist and unstable airmass should be in place from the central and northern Plains southeastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Although large-scale ascent may be relatively weak over much of this area, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible across parts of this airmass during the afternoon and evening. Due to the extended time range, predictability remains low concerning the finer-scale details of any scenario from Thursday into Friday.
..Broyles.. 08/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, August 11
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, August 10 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, August 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, August 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, August 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, August 14 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070859 SPC AC 070859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri Aug 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6
A broad cyclonic flow pattern is forecast to remain in place from the north-central U.S. to the Northeast during the early to mid-week. On the southern edge of the stronger flow, it appears that an east-to-west corridor of moisture and instability will remain in place from the central Plains eastward into the Midwest. On Monday, isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible during the afternoon and evening along and near the northern edge of the stronger instability, from eastern Nebraska eastward into the southern Great Lakes. The greatest convective coverage is expected to be from northern Illinois eastward into western Pennsylvania, where low-level flow is forecast to be maximized. Moderate deep-layer shear along this zone is forecast to be favorable for a severe threat Monday afternoon and evening. Supercells and multicell line segments will have potential to produce severe wind gusts.
On Tuesday and Wednesday, model forecasts suggest that a front will move southward into northern sections of the Ohio Valley, while the instability axis remains in a similar position further west near the Omaha area. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will again be possible in the afternoon and evening, near and to the north of the instability axis. An isolated severe threat could develop with storms that form within or near the strongest instability. However, predictability is low concerning where the greatest potential for severe storms will be.
Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8
On Thursday and Friday, west to northwesterly mid-level flow is forecast over much of the eastern half of the nation. A moist and unstable airmass should be in place from the central and northern Plains southeastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Although large-scale ascent may be relatively weak over much of this area, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible across parts of this airmass during the afternoon and evening. Due to the extended time range, predictability remains low concerning the finer-scale details of any scenario from Thursday into Friday.
..Broyles.. 08/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, August 12
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, August 10 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, August 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, August 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, August 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, August 14 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070859 SPC AC 070859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri Aug 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6
A broad cyclonic flow pattern is forecast to remain in place from the north-central U.S. to the Northeast during the early to mid-week. On the southern edge of the stronger flow, it appears that an east-to-west corridor of moisture and instability will remain in place from the central Plains eastward into the Midwest. On Monday, isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible during the afternoon and evening along and near the northern edge of the stronger instability, from eastern Nebraska eastward into the southern Great Lakes. The greatest convective coverage is expected to be from northern Illinois eastward into western Pennsylvania, where low-level flow is forecast to be maximized. Moderate deep-layer shear along this zone is forecast to be favorable for a severe threat Monday afternoon and evening. Supercells and multicell line segments will have potential to produce severe wind gusts.
On Tuesday and Wednesday, model forecasts suggest that a front will move southward into northern sections of the Ohio Valley, while the instability axis remains in a similar position further west near the Omaha area. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will again be possible in the afternoon and evening, near and to the north of the instability axis. An isolated severe threat could develop with storms that form within or near the strongest instability. However, predictability is low concerning where the greatest potential for severe storms will be.
Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8
On Thursday and Friday, west to northwesterly mid-level flow is forecast over much of the eastern half of the nation. A moist and unstable airmass should be in place from the central and northern Plains southeastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Although large-scale ascent may be relatively weak over much of this area, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible across parts of this airmass during the afternoon and evening. Due to the extended time range, predictability remains low concerning the finer-scale details of any scenario from Thursday into Friday.
..Broyles.. 08/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, August 13
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, August 10 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, August 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, August 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, August 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, August 14 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070859 SPC AC 070859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri Aug 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6
A broad cyclonic flow pattern is forecast to remain in place from the north-central U.S. to the Northeast during the early to mid-week. On the southern edge of the stronger flow, it appears that an east-to-west corridor of moisture and instability will remain in place from the central Plains eastward into the Midwest. On Monday, isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible during the afternoon and evening along and near the northern edge of the stronger instability, from eastern Nebraska eastward into the southern Great Lakes. The greatest convective coverage is expected to be from northern Illinois eastward into western Pennsylvania, where low-level flow is forecast to be maximized. Moderate deep-layer shear along this zone is forecast to be favorable for a severe threat Monday afternoon and evening. Supercells and multicell line segments will have potential to produce severe wind gusts.
On Tuesday and Wednesday, model forecasts suggest that a front will move southward into northern sections of the Ohio Valley, while the instability axis remains in a similar position further west near the Omaha area. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will again be possible in the afternoon and evening, near and to the north of the instability axis. An isolated severe threat could develop with storms that form within or near the strongest instability. However, predictability is low concerning where the greatest potential for severe storms will be.
Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8
On Thursday and Friday, west to northwesterly mid-level flow is forecast over much of the eastern half of the nation. A moist and unstable airmass should be in place from the central and northern Plains southeastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Although large-scale ascent may be relatively weak over much of this area, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible across parts of this airmass during the afternoon and evening. Due to the extended time range, predictability remains low concerning the finer-scale details of any scenario from Thursday into Friday.
..Broyles.. 08/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, August 14
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, August 10 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, August 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, August 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, August 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, August 14 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070859 SPC AC 070859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri Aug 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6
A broad cyclonic flow pattern is forecast to remain in place from the north-central U.S. to the Northeast during the early to mid-week. On the southern edge of the stronger flow, it appears that an east-to-west corridor of moisture and instability will remain in place from the central Plains eastward into the Midwest. On Monday, isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible during the afternoon and evening along and near the northern edge of the stronger instability, from eastern Nebraska eastward into the southern Great Lakes. The greatest convective coverage is expected to be from northern Illinois eastward into western Pennsylvania, where low-level flow is forecast to be maximized. Moderate deep-layer shear along this zone is forecast to be favorable for a severe threat Monday afternoon and evening. Supercells and multicell line segments will have potential to produce severe wind gusts.
On Tuesday and Wednesday, model forecasts suggest that a front will move southward into northern sections of the Ohio Valley, while the instability axis remains in a similar position further west near the Omaha area. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will again be possible in the afternoon and evening, near and to the north of the instability axis. An isolated severe threat could develop with storms that form within or near the strongest instability. However, predictability is low concerning where the greatest potential for severe storms will be.
Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8
On Thursday and Friday, west to northwesterly mid-level flow is forecast over much of the eastern half of the nation. A moist and unstable airmass should be in place from the central and northern Plains southeastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Although large-scale ascent may be relatively weak over much of this area, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible across parts of this airmass during the afternoon and evening. Due to the extended time range, predictability remains low concerning the finer-scale details of any scenario from Thursday into Friday.
..Broyles.. 08/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, August 7
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Saturday, August 8
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Sunday, August 9
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Monday, August 10
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Tuesday, August 11
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, August 12
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, August 13
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, August 14
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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