Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, September 22
Outlook Summary
An isolated threat for severe wind gusts is expected today in Utah into southwest Wyoming and western Colorado. Thunderstorms capable of strong to locally severe damaging gusts are also possible across parts of the Southeast.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 221624
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026
Valid 221630Z - 231200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF UTAH INTO ADJACENT PARTS OF WYOMING AND COLORADO…AND ACROSS A PORTION OF THE SOUTHEAST
### SUMMARY
An isolated threat for severe wind gusts is expected today in Utah into southwest Wyoming and western Colorado. Thunderstorms capable of strong to locally severe damaging gusts are also possible across parts of the Southeast.
Utah into southwest Wyoming and western Colorado
Recent water-vapor imagery shows a potent shortwave trough over the western Great Basin. Recent mesoanalysis estimates a belt of stronger mid-level flow extends throughout the eastern periphery of this wave from northern AZ into central UT. This shortwave is forecast to continue slowly northeastward today, with the accompanying belt of stronger flow extending through northern UT into western WY. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across the region as lift attendant to this wave interacts with the modestly moist and buoyant airmass across the region. Buoyancy will likely remain modest (i.e. MLCAPE less than 1000 J/kg. Even so, moderate to strong vertical shear associated with the stronger mid-level flow will support organized storm structures. This shear combined with cold mid-level temperatures will support the potential for large hail. Additionally, high cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates suggest strong gusts are possible with any of the more robust storms. This activity will eventually move into western CO and southwest WY towards the late afternoon/early evening with isolated severe gusts and/or large hail remaining possible within the stronger cores and associated outflows.
Southeast
Recent surface analysis places a diffuse cold front from the Arklatex northeast into far western VA where it intersects the wedge front over the Mid-Atlantic. This front is expected to gradually shift southward today, interacting with the moist airmass across the Southeast to support thunderstorm development. The strongest buoyancy (i.e. 1500 to 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE) is expected from western/central SC into central AL, where afternoon temperatures will likely reach the 90s amid low 70s dewpoints. Weak low to mid tropospheric flow was sampled by regional soundings, with the very weak vertical shear limiting the overall storm strength and persistence. Some of the stronger water-loaded downdrafts could produce strong gusts with pockets of wind damage into the early evening. Low wind probabilities were trimmed out of southwest VA and adjacent western NC/northeast TN where temperatures will remain cool, limiting buoyancy. Low wind probabilities were also trimmed across central MS where only isolated storm coverage is anticipated.
..Mosier/Wendt.. 09/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Wednesday, September 23
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected tomorrow (Wednesday).
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 220537
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected tomorrow (Wednesday).
Synopsis
An upper low will meander over the eastern U.S. while an upper ridge builds over the Plains states, and an upper trough gradually amplifies over the Pacific Northwest tomorrow (Wednesday). Surface high pressure will build over the northeastern U.S. and Interior West, limiting severe thunderstorm potential. One small exception may be along the windward side of the southern Appalachians, particularly over eastern TN. Here, a surface inverted trough will allow low-level moisture to advect northward, with mid 60s F dewpoints boosting MLCAPE to near 1000 J/kg (albeit tall and thin profiles). A mid-level impulse and accompanying 30+ kt 500 mb jet will yield modestly elongated hodographs and 30 kts of effective bulk shear. CAM guidance consensus depicts pulse cellular and multicellular development by afternoon. An instance of hail approaching 1 inch in diameter or a strong gust causing tree/wire damage cannot be ruled out.
..Squitieri.. 09/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Thursday, September 24
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 220718
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.
Synopsis
Upper troughing will prevail over the East and West Coasts while upper ridging continues over the Plains states. West of the Rockies, an embedded mid-level impulse will track northeastward across the Southwest, bringing widespread showers and widely scattered thunderstorms. However, buoyancy and shear should be too meager to support an organized severe threat.
..Squitieri.. 09/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Friday, September 25
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, September 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, September 26 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, September 27 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, September 28 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, September 29 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220755 SPC AC 220755
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper ridging across the Plains and upper troughing over the western and eastern U.S. will persevere through the weekend, before a more progressive pattern takes shape and an upper trough ejects into the Plains states early next week. Through the weekend, thunderstorm chances should remain confined to the High Plains and points westward, with little indication of an organized severe threat. By early next week, there is some consensus among medium-range deterministic guidance of a surface low developing over the central Plains, encouraging low-level moisture advection beneath cooling temperatures and increasing west-southwesterly flow aloft. However, guidance does not show a favorable overlap of instability or vertical wind shear, with AI/ML calibrated guidance also not depicting a signal for severe, so probabilities have been withheld this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 09/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, September 26
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, September 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, September 26 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, September 27 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, September 28 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, September 29 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220755 SPC AC 220755
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper ridging across the Plains and upper troughing over the western and eastern U.S. will persevere through the weekend, before a more progressive pattern takes shape and an upper trough ejects into the Plains states early next week. Through the weekend, thunderstorm chances should remain confined to the High Plains and points westward, with little indication of an organized severe threat. By early next week, there is some consensus among medium-range deterministic guidance of a surface low developing over the central Plains, encouraging low-level moisture advection beneath cooling temperatures and increasing west-southwesterly flow aloft. However, guidance does not show a favorable overlap of instability or vertical wind shear, with AI/ML calibrated guidance also not depicting a signal for severe, so probabilities have been withheld this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 09/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, September 27
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, September 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, September 26 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, September 27 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, September 28 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, September 29 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220755 SPC AC 220755
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper ridging across the Plains and upper troughing over the western and eastern U.S. will persevere through the weekend, before a more progressive pattern takes shape and an upper trough ejects into the Plains states early next week. Through the weekend, thunderstorm chances should remain confined to the High Plains and points westward, with little indication of an organized severe threat. By early next week, there is some consensus among medium-range deterministic guidance of a surface low developing over the central Plains, encouraging low-level moisture advection beneath cooling temperatures and increasing west-southwesterly flow aloft. However, guidance does not show a favorable overlap of instability or vertical wind shear, with AI/ML calibrated guidance also not depicting a signal for severe, so probabilities have been withheld this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 09/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, September 28
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, September 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, September 26 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, September 27 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, September 28 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, September 29 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220755 SPC AC 220755
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper ridging across the Plains and upper troughing over the western and eastern U.S. will persevere through the weekend, before a more progressive pattern takes shape and an upper trough ejects into the Plains states early next week. Through the weekend, thunderstorm chances should remain confined to the High Plains and points westward, with little indication of an organized severe threat. By early next week, there is some consensus among medium-range deterministic guidance of a surface low developing over the central Plains, encouraging low-level moisture advection beneath cooling temperatures and increasing west-southwesterly flow aloft. However, guidance does not show a favorable overlap of instability or vertical wind shear, with AI/ML calibrated guidance also not depicting a signal for severe, so probabilities have been withheld this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 09/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, September 29
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, September 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, September 26 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, September 27 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, September 28 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, September 29 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220755 SPC AC 220755
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper ridging across the Plains and upper troughing over the western and eastern U.S. will persevere through the weekend, before a more progressive pattern takes shape and an upper trough ejects into the Plains states early next week. Through the weekend, thunderstorm chances should remain confined to the High Plains and points westward, with little indication of an organized severe threat. By early next week, there is some consensus among medium-range deterministic guidance of a surface low developing over the central Plains, encouraging low-level moisture advection beneath cooling temperatures and increasing west-southwesterly flow aloft. However, guidance does not show a favorable overlap of instability or vertical wind shear, with AI/ML calibrated guidance also not depicting a signal for severe, so probabilities have been withheld this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 09/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, September 22
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Wednesday, September 23
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Thursday, September 24
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Friday, September 25
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, September 26
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, September 27
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, September 28
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, September 29
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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