Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, June 19
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong storms may produce gusty winds and hail across the Upper Midwest and parts of the central Plains. Additional strong thunderstorms may produce damaging wind gusts from north Texas/southern Oklahoma through portions of the Gulf Coast states and into the coastal Carolinas.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 190453
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS…AND OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong storms may produce gusty winds and hail across the Upper Midwest and parts of the central Plains. Additional strong thunderstorms may produce damaging wind gusts from north Texas/southern Oklahoma through portions of the Gulf Coast states and into the coastal Carolinas.
MN into WI
An upper low will be situated over northern Manitoba, with a broad fetch of moderate northwest flow aloft across the northern Rockies and Plains. A progressive embedded wave is forecast to move across the Dakotas and toward the upper MS Valley through 00Z, with weak low pressure into northern MN. Strong surface heating along with 50s F dewpoints and convergence near a cold front will lead to scattered storms across much of MN and northern WI. Forecast soundings show cold profiles aloft over northern areas, though shear will be weaker. Shear will be stronger over southern MN, but instability will not be as favorable. Either way, cells capable of hail appear most likely given the cool profiles aloft. A few cells may become severe with hail over 1.00".
From eastern TX into the Southeast
Early day rain and storms may be ongoing over northern TX into OK, with possible outflow into central TX. A potential midlevel wave associated with the OK/TX storms may provide a focus for additional development as it proceeds east/southeast, interacting with a very moist air mass with mid to upper 70s F dewpoints. Shear will be weak, but ample PWAT and CAPE may result in locally damaging winds.
Farther east into the Carolinas, a leading wave will move across that area early in the day as well. Shear profiles may be enhanced ahead of this feature, with a low probability of a brief tornado and damaging gusts before the system moves offshore.
Strong instability will also develop over the FL Peninsula, with numerous storms expected over central and eastern portions. Midlevel lapse rates of 6.5 to 7.0 C/km, PWAT over 2.00" and daytime heating will lead to robust storms capable of locally damaging downbursts.
Central Plains
Beneath modest northwest flow aloft, low pressure will develop over southeast CO, with southeasterly surface winds across the central Plains. This will aid moisture advection with 50s to perhaps near 60 F dewpoints across KS, eastern CO and into NE. It is questionable if any storms develop during the day as the boundary layer may be cool, but the influence of the upper trough over the northern Plains may yield a few elevated storms. Then overnight, additional warm advection above the surface may support isolated development. Hail would be the primary risk.
..Jewell/Squitieri.. 06/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Saturday, June 20
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the central Plains vicinity from Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. Large to very-large hail, severe winds (some 75+ mph), and tornadoes are possible.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 30%
hail 30%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 190547
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the central Plains vicinity from Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. Large to very-large hail, severe winds (some 75+ mph), and tornadoes are possible.
Synopsis
A mid-level ridge will de-amplify as it emerges from the Rockies to the central Plains on Saturday. As this occurs, mid-level flow will strengthen across the Rockies with strong lee cyclogenesis across eastern Colorado. A frontal zone will extend eastward from the surface low somewhere near southern Nebraska with a dryline extending southward into the southern Plains.
Central Plains
Low-level flow will strengthen across the Plains during the day Saturday as the lee cyclone deepens across eastern Colorado. This will result in northward moisture transport and destabilization across Kansas, northeast Colorado, and southwest Nebraska. By mid-afternoon, expect storms to develop within the upslope flow regime across eastern Wyoming, southwest South Dakota, and the Nebraska Panhandle. Forecast soundings show cool temperatures aloft, steep lapse rates, and strong shear which will support supercells capable of large to very large hail in this area.
By later in the afternoon, expect storm development along the uncapped dryline across eastern Colorado and western Kansas, and along the frontal zone in central/southern Nebraska. Moderate mid-level flow across the warm sector within this zone will support a supercell storm mode. These initial supercells will pose a threat for large to very large hail. In addition, some tornado threat will exist with this activity, particularly along the front and as the low-level jet strengthens during the evening. Expect these supercells to congeal into one or more MCSs during the evening and track southeastward into central and eastern Kansas, with an increasing wind threat (with some 75+ mph gust potential), and perhaps a QLCS/embedded supercell tornado threat.
..Bentley.. 06/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Sunday, June 21
Outlook Summary
Severe storms are possible along a frontal zone from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the central High Plains on Sunday. Large hail, severe winds, and tornadoes will be possible.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 190716
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO PARTS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
### SUMMARY
Severe storms are possible along a frontal zone from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the central High Plains on Sunday. Large hail, severe winds, and tornadoes will be possible.
Synopsis
A mostly zonal pattern will exist across the CONUS on Sunday with multiple embedded shortwave troughs. The primary surface low is forecast to remain near the Texas Panhandle during the day Sunday, with a stationary front extending northeastward through southern Kansas, central Missouri, and into Illinois. An additional, perhaps convectively enhanced, surface low may be present across northern Missouri and Illinois during the afternoon/evening.
Central Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley
A MCS will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across portions of Kansas/western Missouri near the nose of the low-level jet. As this moves east through the day, areas southwest of this cluster, and perhaps immediately in its wake, are expected to destabilize substantially. This will represent a zone where storms are expected to develop along the front amid moderate instability and shear, most likely from northeast Oklahoma to near St. Louis. These storms would pose a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts.
A lower probability, but higher potential impact scenario could develop across parts of eastern Missouri into central/southern Illinois Sunday afternoon if a better defined, surface low develops along the front and deepens through the day. This is most notably shown by the NAM, but is also shown to a lesser extent by the ECMWF. This could result in a localized corridor of greater tornado threat on Sunday due to increased low-level shear. However, this scenario will be conditional on both the development of this surface low and the location of the morning MCS. Therefore, greater probabilities have not been added, but this potential scenario will continue to be monitored.
Central High Plains
Scattered storms are likely to develop in the post-frontal airmass across western Kansas, eastern Colorado, and southwest Nebraska on Sunday afternoon/evening, triggered by a shortwave trough overspreading the region. Strengthening mid-level flow (near 50 knots based on much of the 00Z guidance) atop moderate instability will support supercells with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts.
..Bentley.. 06/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Monday, June 22
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, June 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, June 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, June 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, June 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, June 26 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190815 SPC AC 190815
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe weather is possible along a frontal zone from the Mid-Atlantic to the southern Plains on Monday. The specific areas of threat will be defined by the locations of individual shortwave troughs embedded within the broader cyclonic flow. These small-scale features lack consensus at the Day 4 timeframe which precludes 15% severe weather probabilities at this time.
By Day 5/Tuesday, some severe weather threat is possible across portions of the central High Plains. There is decent model agreement showing moderate northwest flow aloft across eastern Colorado and vicinity on the eastern periphery of a western CONUS ridge. However, there is considerable spread in moisture return among the guidance. Should adequate moisture advect into the region, a northwest flow severe weather event is possible in the eastern Colorado vicinity. This will need to be monitored.
Day 6 and beyond, model spread increases which limits predictability. Most guidance shows moderate northwesterly flow across portions of the Plains, which would suggest continued severe weather episodes during the extended period. However, specific days and locations cannot be highlighted at this time due to aforementioned predictability challenges.
..Bentley.. 06/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, June 23
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, June 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, June 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, June 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, June 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, June 26 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190815 SPC AC 190815
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe weather is possible along a frontal zone from the Mid-Atlantic to the southern Plains on Monday. The specific areas of threat will be defined by the locations of individual shortwave troughs embedded within the broader cyclonic flow. These small-scale features lack consensus at the Day 4 timeframe which precludes 15% severe weather probabilities at this time.
By Day 5/Tuesday, some severe weather threat is possible across portions of the central High Plains. There is decent model agreement showing moderate northwest flow aloft across eastern Colorado and vicinity on the eastern periphery of a western CONUS ridge. However, there is considerable spread in moisture return among the guidance. Should adequate moisture advect into the region, a northwest flow severe weather event is possible in the eastern Colorado vicinity. This will need to be monitored.
Day 6 and beyond, model spread increases which limits predictability. Most guidance shows moderate northwesterly flow across portions of the Plains, which would suggest continued severe weather episodes during the extended period. However, specific days and locations cannot be highlighted at this time due to aforementioned predictability challenges.
..Bentley.. 06/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, June 24
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, June 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, June 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, June 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, June 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, June 26 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190815 SPC AC 190815
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe weather is possible along a frontal zone from the Mid-Atlantic to the southern Plains on Monday. The specific areas of threat will be defined by the locations of individual shortwave troughs embedded within the broader cyclonic flow. These small-scale features lack consensus at the Day 4 timeframe which precludes 15% severe weather probabilities at this time.
By Day 5/Tuesday, some severe weather threat is possible across portions of the central High Plains. There is decent model agreement showing moderate northwest flow aloft across eastern Colorado and vicinity on the eastern periphery of a western CONUS ridge. However, there is considerable spread in moisture return among the guidance. Should adequate moisture advect into the region, a northwest flow severe weather event is possible in the eastern Colorado vicinity. This will need to be monitored.
Day 6 and beyond, model spread increases which limits predictability. Most guidance shows moderate northwesterly flow across portions of the Plains, which would suggest continued severe weather episodes during the extended period. However, specific days and locations cannot be highlighted at this time due to aforementioned predictability challenges.
..Bentley.. 06/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, June 25
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, June 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, June 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, June 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, June 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, June 26 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190815 SPC AC 190815
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe weather is possible along a frontal zone from the Mid-Atlantic to the southern Plains on Monday. The specific areas of threat will be defined by the locations of individual shortwave troughs embedded within the broader cyclonic flow. These small-scale features lack consensus at the Day 4 timeframe which precludes 15% severe weather probabilities at this time.
By Day 5/Tuesday, some severe weather threat is possible across portions of the central High Plains. There is decent model agreement showing moderate northwest flow aloft across eastern Colorado and vicinity on the eastern periphery of a western CONUS ridge. However, there is considerable spread in moisture return among the guidance. Should adequate moisture advect into the region, a northwest flow severe weather event is possible in the eastern Colorado vicinity. This will need to be monitored.
Day 6 and beyond, model spread increases which limits predictability. Most guidance shows moderate northwesterly flow across portions of the Plains, which would suggest continued severe weather episodes during the extended period. However, specific days and locations cannot be highlighted at this time due to aforementioned predictability challenges.
..Bentley.. 06/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, June 26
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, June 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, June 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, June 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, June 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, June 26 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190815 SPC AC 190815
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe weather is possible along a frontal zone from the Mid-Atlantic to the southern Plains on Monday. The specific areas of threat will be defined by the locations of individual shortwave troughs embedded within the broader cyclonic flow. These small-scale features lack consensus at the Day 4 timeframe which precludes 15% severe weather probabilities at this time.
By Day 5/Tuesday, some severe weather threat is possible across portions of the central High Plains. There is decent model agreement showing moderate northwest flow aloft across eastern Colorado and vicinity on the eastern periphery of a western CONUS ridge. However, there is considerable spread in moisture return among the guidance. Should adequate moisture advect into the region, a northwest flow severe weather event is possible in the eastern Colorado vicinity. This will need to be monitored.
Day 6 and beyond, model spread increases which limits predictability. Most guidance shows moderate northwesterly flow across portions of the Plains, which would suggest continued severe weather episodes during the extended period. However, specific days and locations cannot be highlighted at this time due to aforementioned predictability challenges.
..Bentley.. 06/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, June 19
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Saturday, June 20
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 30%
- WIND: 30%
- Sunday, June 21
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Monday, June 22
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, June 23
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, June 24
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, June 25
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, June 26
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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