Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Saturday, April 25

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms with very large to giant hail (2 to 4+ inches in diameter), tornadoes (some EF2+), and scattered damaging winds are expected late this afternoon through tonight across parts of the southern Plains and ArkLaTex.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 251948

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Valid 252000Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO FAR NORTHERN TEXAS

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms with very large to giant hail (2 to 4+ inches in diameter), tornadoes (some EF2+), and scattered damaging winds are expected late this afternoon through tonight across parts of the southern Plains and ArkLaTex.

20Z Update

The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. The main adjustments made to the outlook (albeit minor) were to slightly extend the moderate risk-driven hail probabilities to the southwest to align with the current position of the surface boundary. The latest high-resolution guidance consensus has consistently depicted some of the most robust storms to form and anchor along this boundary. With current mesoanalysis already showing 4000+ J/kg MLCAPE colocated across far south-central OK, the current thinking is that intense supercells traversing this boundary will produce severe hail in the 3-4 inch range, and a couple of stones above 4 inches in diameter cannot be completely ruled out. Tornadoes may also occur, with the best chance of a strong to intense tornado being with a boundary-anchoring supercell that can remain discrete and dominant.

..Squitieri.. 04/25/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026/

Southern Plains and ArkLaTex

While stratus remains semi-prevalent this morning along/north of the near-stationary front, strong to locally extreme instability (MLCAPE 2500-4000+ J/kg) is expected to develop along/east of the dryline in Texas and Red River-vicinity triple point, and to the south of slow-northward-shifting warm front in Oklahoma by peak afternoon heating. The presence of seasonably cool temperatures aloft and 7.5-8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates will also support this very unstable thermodynamic environment. While large-scale ascent associated with the ejecting mid-level shortwave trough is not expected to be overly robust, the arrival of a shortwave trough/mid-level speed max will be favorably timed atop the warm sector. At least widely scattered thunderstorm initiation is expected by mid/late afternoon to early evening (around 20-23Z), especially near the warm front/dryline intersection and a bit north across south-central/east-central Oklahoma.

40-50 kt of generally westerly effective bulk shear will support intense supercells, with multiple right/left splits expected. This activity will quickly intensify shortly after convective initiation, and very large to giant hail appears likely (2-4+ inches in diameter). The potential exists for multiple intense supercells to track east-southeastward along/near the warm front. A conditional risk for supercells remains apparent farther south along the length of the dryline in TX, although confidence in convective initiation remains low, but at least isolated but intense deep convective development is plausible, especially in closer proximity to the surface triple point across North Texas.

Modest southerly low-level winds (around 20-30 kt at 850 mb) will be present through this evening across the southern Plains. Locally enhanced 0-1 km SRH will exist near the warm front with backed near-surface winds. This will support a threat for tornadoes with any right-split supercells that remain surface based. A slight increase in the low-level jet this evening and presence of very strong to locally extreme buoyancy also suggests some threat for a few EF-2+ tornadoes. With time this evening, convection may grow upscale and pose a threat for scattered severe/damaging winds as storm clusters move southeastward across the Red River toward and across the ArkLaTex.

Central Plains including Kansas/Nebraska

Farther north, instability and low-level moisture is expected to remain weaker/more limited. But, some supercells/small clusters are expected to develop this afternoon and move east-northeastward given sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. Isolated to scattered severe hail and damaging winds should be the main threat with this activity through mid-evening before eventually weakening.

Lower Mississippi Valley/Middle Gulf Coast

Strong to locally severe storms may redevelop later today as outflow modifies in the wake of the early morning MCS, with the potential that additional storms, potentially in the form of another MCS, approach the region from the northwest late tonight.

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

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Outlook for Sunday, April 26

Outlook Summary

Isolated to widely scattered severe storms with potential to produce large/very-large hail severe/damaging winds and a couple of strong tornadoes are possible by early Sunday evening across parts of the central and southern Great Plains.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 251734

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS…WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI…SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA

### SUMMARY

Isolated to widely scattered severe storms with potential to produce large/very-large hail severe/damaging winds and a couple of strong tornadoes are possible by early Sunday evening across parts of the central and southern Great Plains.

Synopsis

A shortwave trough will eject into the central Plains late Saturday. A surface low develop in western/central Kansas. A dryline will drape south and westward into Oklahoma and Texas. A warm front will be situated within parts of the mid-Missouri/mid-Mississippi Valleys.

Central Plains into mid-Missouri Valley

Uncertainty remains in the exact evolution of convection across the central Plains and mid-Missouri Valley. While stronger mid-level ascent is expected this far north, the timing of the shortwave trough will likely be after 00Z. Outflow from convection on Saturday will play a role in where severe convection eventually develops. Two zones are currently evident in model guidance. One will be along potential outflow near the KS/MO border into southeast NE where a weak surface low could develop. The triple point and main surface low in western/central KS will be the other. Some guidance shows warm advection storms spreading northeastward early Sunday which would complicate the forecast for the mid-Missouri Valley. There is modestly higher confidence in storms developing near the main surface low/triple point. Effective shear will be greater than 50 kt, strong buoyancy of greater than 2500 J/kg MLCAPE, and steep mid-level lapse rates will promote a risk for large/very-large hail with initial supercells. The tornado risk will likely be maximized near the triple point, but how long the greater threat lasts depends on speed of upscale growth. With time, one or more clusters/linear segments are expected to move eastward and lead to a greater severe/damaging wind threat. The southern extent of this potential remains uncertain as most guidance has suggested this activity will be farther north, more closely tied to the ejecting shortwave trough.

Oklahoma

The level of severe risk will be highly dependent upon what occurs Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Outflow from this activity has the potential to limit destabilization across at least portions of central/eastern Oklahoma. This could potentially leave a fairly narrow corridor near the dryline where inhibition would be minimized. That said, the large-scale ascent will be nebulous at best and overcoming the cap will largely be dependent on strong heating along the dryline. The nose of the mid-level jet will move into the Texas Panhandle/western Oklahoma by late afternoon. Locally stronger convergence along the dryline may be enough to initiate an isolated storm or two. This scenario remains quite uncertain as guidance uniformly does not convect along the dryline. Given greater than 50 kt deep-layer shear perpendicular to the dryline, steep mid-level lapse rates, and strong low-level shear (especially during the evening), storms would be capable of all severe hazards – including very-large hail and a strong tornado – should they develop.

Lower Mississippi Valley

A remnant MCV from convection on Saturday in OK/northeast Texas will likely move southeastward during the day. Moderate mid, northwesterly mid-level winds will allow for some continued storm organization. The main question will be how much destabilization will occur ahead of this feature. Furthermore, weakening 850 mb winds will have to overcome by cold pool organization. At least isolated wind damage and large hail would be possible.

Northwest Texas into Edwards Plateau/Hill Country

Storm initiation along the dryline is not certain given the lack of forcing aloft. However, strong heating could promote isolated development. Shear would be sufficient for supercells and steep lapse rates through the middle troposphere would promote a threat for large/very-large hail as well as severe winds.

..Wendt.. 04/25/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Monday, April 27

Outlook Summary

Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears probable across the middle Mississippi into lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Monday afternoon and evening. At least initially, this may include several evolving supercells potentially capable of producing strong tornadoes across parts of southeastern Iowa into central through southern Illinois and adjacent east central and southeast Missouri.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 251930

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY…MID-SOUTH…AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears probable across the middle Mississippi into lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Monday afternoon and evening. At least initially, this may include several evolving supercells potentially capable of producing strong tornadoes across parts of southeastern Iowa into central through southern Illinois and adjacent east central and southeast Missouri.

Synopsis

A potent shortwave trough will move into the mid-Mississippi Valley on Monday. A deepening surface low in the upper Mississippi Valley will draw rich moisture northward into a very broad warm sector. Strong deep-layer shear will promote numerous organized storms capable of all severe hazards.

Mid-Mississippi Valley

A fairly well-timed shortwave trough will move into the region by mid-afternoon. A deepening surface low will lift northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Associated with the cyclone, a cold front/dryline composite will drape southwestward through central Iowa/western Missouri. Within the warm sector, rich moisture (dewpoints in the upper 60s F) and mid-level lapse rates around 8 C/km will promote MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg. 60+ kts of effective shear is expected as the mid-level jet overspreads the region. Supercells are possible along the warm front, pre-frontal trough, and even the open warm sector given the forcing for ascent. All severe hazards will be possible including very-large hail, significant winds, and strong tornadoes. Potential for longer track tornadoes is not out of the question. There remains some uncertainty as to how convection will ultimately evolve during the afternoon given the potential for early morning thunderstorms. The NAM would suggest this activity clears out relatively quickly and development on the pre-frontal trough or front in the afternoon is probable. The latest ECMWF depicts convection lingering into the later morning/early afternoon, particularly in northern and parts of central Illinois. This would act to shift the primary corridor of severe risk farther south and east. The main zone of concern, when taking all guidance into account, appears to be from far southeast Iowa into central Illinois. With time, one or more stronger linear segments are expected to evolve where damaging winds and QLCS tornadoes would be possible. A categorical upgrade to Level 4/Moderate was considered, but will await additional guidance which will hopefully clarify how early-day convection will evolve.

Mid-South

Though this area will be displaced from the strongest mid-level ascent, rich moisture (upper 60s F to potentially low 70s F dewpoints) will promote 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. A broad mid-level jet will nose into the region. Around 50 kts of effective shear can be expected. Supercells capable of all severe hazards will be possible.

..Wendt.. 04/25/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, April 28

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250855 SPC AC 250855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Valid 281200Z - 031200Z

DISCUSSION

In the wake of a significant surface cyclone, which may be in the process of migrating northeast of the upper Great Lakes region by 12Z Tuesday, it appears that a cold front will gradually advance across the Atlantic Seaboard and into the Gulf coast vicinity before stalling later this work week into next weekend. It appears that this will occur coincident with the southwestward suppression of subtropical ridging, initially centered over southern Mexico and influential as far north as the Gulf coast at the outset of this period.

Near the southern periphery of the westerlies/northern periphery of the subtropical ridging, there appears a similar signal in both ECENS and GEFS related medium-range guidance concerning potential for organized severe thunderstorm development by late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. An evolving pre-frontal corridor of moderate to strong potential instability across the Ark-La-Tex through Ark-La-Miss vicinity may provide a focus for an upscale growing thunderstorm cluster, aided by forcing for ascent and shear associated with a mid-level speed maximum progressing across the region.

Through the remainder of the week, into early next weekend, the lingering frontal zone across the Gulf coast region may provide a focus for occasional continuing thunderstorm development, particularly as an initially notable short wave perturbation, emerging from the southern mid-/subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific, progresses east of the southern Rockies. However, barring more substantive frontal wave development than currently forecast, potential for organized severe convection remains unclear.

..Kerr.. 04/25/2026

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Outlook for Wednesday, April 29

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250855 SPC AC 250855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Valid 281200Z - 031200Z

DISCUSSION

In the wake of a significant surface cyclone, which may be in the process of migrating northeast of the upper Great Lakes region by 12Z Tuesday, it appears that a cold front will gradually advance across the Atlantic Seaboard and into the Gulf coast vicinity before stalling later this work week into next weekend. It appears that this will occur coincident with the southwestward suppression of subtropical ridging, initially centered over southern Mexico and influential as far north as the Gulf coast at the outset of this period.

Near the southern periphery of the westerlies/northern periphery of the subtropical ridging, there appears a similar signal in both ECENS and GEFS related medium-range guidance concerning potential for organized severe thunderstorm development by late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. An evolving pre-frontal corridor of moderate to strong potential instability across the Ark-La-Tex through Ark-La-Miss vicinity may provide a focus for an upscale growing thunderstorm cluster, aided by forcing for ascent and shear associated with a mid-level speed maximum progressing across the region.

Through the remainder of the week, into early next weekend, the lingering frontal zone across the Gulf coast region may provide a focus for occasional continuing thunderstorm development, particularly as an initially notable short wave perturbation, emerging from the southern mid-/subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific, progresses east of the southern Rockies. However, barring more substantive frontal wave development than currently forecast, potential for organized severe convection remains unclear.

..Kerr.. 04/25/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Thursday, April 30

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250855 SPC AC 250855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Valid 281200Z - 031200Z

DISCUSSION

In the wake of a significant surface cyclone, which may be in the process of migrating northeast of the upper Great Lakes region by 12Z Tuesday, it appears that a cold front will gradually advance across the Atlantic Seaboard and into the Gulf coast vicinity before stalling later this work week into next weekend. It appears that this will occur coincident with the southwestward suppression of subtropical ridging, initially centered over southern Mexico and influential as far north as the Gulf coast at the outset of this period.

Near the southern periphery of the westerlies/northern periphery of the subtropical ridging, there appears a similar signal in both ECENS and GEFS related medium-range guidance concerning potential for organized severe thunderstorm development by late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. An evolving pre-frontal corridor of moderate to strong potential instability across the Ark-La-Tex through Ark-La-Miss vicinity may provide a focus for an upscale growing thunderstorm cluster, aided by forcing for ascent and shear associated with a mid-level speed maximum progressing across the region.

Through the remainder of the week, into early next weekend, the lingering frontal zone across the Gulf coast region may provide a focus for occasional continuing thunderstorm development, particularly as an initially notable short wave perturbation, emerging from the southern mid-/subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific, progresses east of the southern Rockies. However, barring more substantive frontal wave development than currently forecast, potential for organized severe convection remains unclear.

..Kerr.. 04/25/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Friday, May 1

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250855 SPC AC 250855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Valid 281200Z - 031200Z

DISCUSSION

In the wake of a significant surface cyclone, which may be in the process of migrating northeast of the upper Great Lakes region by 12Z Tuesday, it appears that a cold front will gradually advance across the Atlantic Seaboard and into the Gulf coast vicinity before stalling later this work week into next weekend. It appears that this will occur coincident with the southwestward suppression of subtropical ridging, initially centered over southern Mexico and influential as far north as the Gulf coast at the outset of this period.

Near the southern periphery of the westerlies/northern periphery of the subtropical ridging, there appears a similar signal in both ECENS and GEFS related medium-range guidance concerning potential for organized severe thunderstorm development by late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. An evolving pre-frontal corridor of moderate to strong potential instability across the Ark-La-Tex through Ark-La-Miss vicinity may provide a focus for an upscale growing thunderstorm cluster, aided by forcing for ascent and shear associated with a mid-level speed maximum progressing across the region.

Through the remainder of the week, into early next weekend, the lingering frontal zone across the Gulf coast region may provide a focus for occasional continuing thunderstorm development, particularly as an initially notable short wave perturbation, emerging from the southern mid-/subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific, progresses east of the southern Rockies. However, barring more substantive frontal wave development than currently forecast, potential for organized severe convection remains unclear.

..Kerr.. 04/25/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, May 2

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250855 SPC AC 250855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Valid 281200Z - 031200Z

DISCUSSION

In the wake of a significant surface cyclone, which may be in the process of migrating northeast of the upper Great Lakes region by 12Z Tuesday, it appears that a cold front will gradually advance across the Atlantic Seaboard and into the Gulf coast vicinity before stalling later this work week into next weekend. It appears that this will occur coincident with the southwestward suppression of subtropical ridging, initially centered over southern Mexico and influential as far north as the Gulf coast at the outset of this period.

Near the southern periphery of the westerlies/northern periphery of the subtropical ridging, there appears a similar signal in both ECENS and GEFS related medium-range guidance concerning potential for organized severe thunderstorm development by late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. An evolving pre-frontal corridor of moderate to strong potential instability across the Ark-La-Tex through Ark-La-Miss vicinity may provide a focus for an upscale growing thunderstorm cluster, aided by forcing for ascent and shear associated with a mid-level speed maximum progressing across the region.

Through the remainder of the week, into early next weekend, the lingering frontal zone across the Gulf coast region may provide a focus for occasional continuing thunderstorm development, particularly as an initially notable short wave perturbation, emerging from the southern mid-/subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific, progresses east of the southern Rockies. However, barring more substantive frontal wave development than currently forecast, potential for organized severe convection remains unclear.

..Kerr.. 04/25/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Saturday, April 25

TORNADO: 10%

HAIL: 45%

WIND: 30%

Sunday, April 26

TORNADO: 10%

HAIL: 30%

WIND: 30%

Monday, April 27

ANY SEVERE: 45%

Tuesday, April 28

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Wednesday, April 29

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Thursday, April 30

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, May 1

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Saturday, May 2

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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