Severe Weather Outlook
Hayley here - Do you want to see severe weather in your calendar?
* it's like an add-on for your digital calendar NOT a paper calendar
National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, October 14
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and potentially a tornado threat will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the southern Plains. A marginal wind-damage threat will also be possible from parts of the Ozarks into the central Appalachians.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 140550
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and potentially a tornado threat will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the southern Plains. A marginal wind-damage threat will also be possible from parts of the Ozarks into the central Appalachians.
Southern Plains
At mid-levels, southwesterly flow will be in place across much of the south-central U.S. today, as a large-scale trough and low move through the Desert Southwest. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward this morning across northern Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Numerous thunderstorms will be likely this morning near the front. The effective boundary is expected to be further south, which will shift the effective destabilization further south as well. By early afternoon, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to be located from west Texas northeastward into southwestern and south-central Oklahoma, where MLCAPE will likely range from 1500 to 2000 J/kg. Areas that destabilize significantly will have potential for severe storms.
RAP forecast soundings near the instability axis by mid to late afternoon have supercell wind profiles, with gradually veering winds with height in the low-levels and about 50 knots of southwesterly flow in the mid-levels. This will support supercell development with storms that form in the stronger instability and remain discrete. Supercells will be capable of severe wind gusts, hail and perhaps a tornado or two. During the evening, a transition to linear mode is expected, but a threat for embedded supercells will continue. The more intense line segments could produce severe wind gusts, potentially above 70 mph.
Ozarks/Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians
An anticyclonic flow pattern will be in place over the eastern half of the nation today. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward into the Ozarks and Ohio Valley today. To the south of the boundary, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s F will likely result in pockets of moderate instability by afternoon. In spite of limited large-scale ascent, increasing low-level convergence near the boundary will result in scattered convective initiation. Deep-layer shear near the front may be strong enough for a few isolated severe storms in areas that destabilize the most. The primary threat will be damaging wind gusts.
..Broyles/Chalmers.. 10/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Thursday, October 15
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or two are possible over portions of the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys Thursday afternoon and evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 140521
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or two are possible over portions of the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys Thursday afternoon and evening.
Synopsis
A short-wave trough over central Canada Thursday morning is forecast to undergo considerable amplification while translating into the Great Lakes late Thursday night/early Friday. Ahead of that feature, an upper low will weaken into an increasingly sheared open wave while accelerating from the central High Plains into the Midwest. That pattern evolution will yield a steadily strengthening deep-layer wind field over the mid-MS and OH Valleys through the forecast period. At the surface, an area of low pressure is expected to develop along a warm front from central or eastern KS through the mid-MS and OH Valleys to the lower Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will surge south through much of the southern Plains, Ozark Plateau, and mid-MS Valley.
### Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Thursday morning from the central Plains into the mid-MS Valley ahead of the surface low and within a zone of low-level warm advection and the possible influence of a lead disturbance moving through the region. A subset of the morning storms is likely to continue through the remainder of the day with convective outflow and clouds limiting air mass destabilization in those areas.
A relatively narrow plume of upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints will be advected into the northern extension of the system warm sector, contributing to MLCAPE up to 500-1000 J/kg by mid to late afternoon in areas peripheral to active convection. A subsequent increase in surface-based storm coverage and intensity is expected at that time from east-central MO into central and southern IL. The presence of 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear will be supportive of transient supercell and bowing structures capable of isolated damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or two through the evening.
The duration and eastward extent of the damaging wind threat remain in question Thursday night in the mid to upper-OH Valley. Model soundings indicate a shallow, near-ground inversion developing within the warm sector as the surface low outpaces better low-level moisture return. However, widely spaced damaging wind gusts may still remain possible given the presence of 40-50 kt winds within the lowest km above ground.
### Southern Plains/Ozark Plateau
A few strong storms capable of gusty winds and/or small hail appear possible Thursday afternoon and evening along the cold front progressing through the region. Poor midlevel lapse rates, weak low-level winds, and deep-layer shear vectors oriented parallel to the progressive/undercutting front are likely to lead to outflow-dominant, disorganized convective modes, limiting severe weather potential.
..Mead.. 10/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Friday, October 16
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe storms are possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic Friday afternoon and evening.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 140718
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe storms are possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic Friday afternoon and evening.
Synopsis
An intense trough and associated 90-100 kt midlevel jet are expected to progress from the Great Lakes and mid-MS Valley Friday morning to the Appalachians by late Friday night/early Saturday. At the surface, an area of low pressure will develop from the lower Great Lakes to the Gulf of St. Lawrence while a trailing cold front advances through New England, the Mid-Atlantic, and the Southeast, excluding central/south FL.
### Mid-Atlantic
Early-day showers and thunderstorms appear probable across portions of the region, especially north of the Mason-Dixon line. Clouds and areas of precipitation may linger into the afternoon at some locations, but where stronger heating can occur, the presence of boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s to around 70 F is expected to yield at least marginal instability within the warm sector. That air mass destabilization will coincide with increasing height falls aloft, likely yielding an uptick in storm coverage and intensity through the afternoon along and ahead of the cold front. The presence of a strongly sheared environment will be supportive of organized storm modes with an associated risk for isolated damaging wind gusts into the evening.
..Mead.. 10/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Saturday, October 17
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 17 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, October 18 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, October 19 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, October 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, October 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140825 SPC AC 140825
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4 through 6/Saturday through Monday
An intense midlevel trough will move off the Atlantic Coast early on Day 4/Saturday in response to strong zonal flow developing along the U.S./Canadian border. Elsewhere, an upper low off the Baja Coast will weaken while accelerating through the Southwest into the Great Plains. In the low levels, a drier and more stable air mass is expected to limit severe weather potential through at least Monday.
### Days 7 and 8/Tuesday and Wednesday
There is good model agreement that a midlevel trough will move inland from the Pacific Coast. Meanwhile, an associated deepening of a lee surface trough is expected over the High Plains, which in turn will promote the poleward flux of an increasingly moist air mass from the Gulf into the Great Plains. An isolated severe weather threat could materialize by as early as Tuesday in the lower-Colorado Valley, where strengthening vertical shear and forcing for ascent overspread a marginally unstable environment. Uncertainty remains in how quickly the midlevel trough will move through the Interior West; however, it does appear that severe weather potential may increase over the central U.S. by Wednesday or Thursday of next week.
..Mead.. 10/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, October 18
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 17 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, October 18 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, October 19 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, October 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, October 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140825 SPC AC 140825
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4 through 6/Saturday through Monday
An intense midlevel trough will move off the Atlantic Coast early on Day 4/Saturday in response to strong zonal flow developing along the U.S./Canadian border. Elsewhere, an upper low off the Baja Coast will weaken while accelerating through the Southwest into the Great Plains. In the low levels, a drier and more stable air mass is expected to limit severe weather potential through at least Monday.
### Days 7 and 8/Tuesday and Wednesday
There is good model agreement that a midlevel trough will move inland from the Pacific Coast. Meanwhile, an associated deepening of a lee surface trough is expected over the High Plains, which in turn will promote the poleward flux of an increasingly moist air mass from the Gulf into the Great Plains. An isolated severe weather threat could materialize by as early as Tuesday in the lower-Colorado Valley, where strengthening vertical shear and forcing for ascent overspread a marginally unstable environment. Uncertainty remains in how quickly the midlevel trough will move through the Interior West; however, it does appear that severe weather potential may increase over the central U.S. by Wednesday or Thursday of next week.
..Mead.. 10/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, October 19
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 17 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, October 18 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, October 19 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, October 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, October 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140825 SPC AC 140825
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4 through 6/Saturday through Monday
An intense midlevel trough will move off the Atlantic Coast early on Day 4/Saturday in response to strong zonal flow developing along the U.S./Canadian border. Elsewhere, an upper low off the Baja Coast will weaken while accelerating through the Southwest into the Great Plains. In the low levels, a drier and more stable air mass is expected to limit severe weather potential through at least Monday.
### Days 7 and 8/Tuesday and Wednesday
There is good model agreement that a midlevel trough will move inland from the Pacific Coast. Meanwhile, an associated deepening of a lee surface trough is expected over the High Plains, which in turn will promote the poleward flux of an increasingly moist air mass from the Gulf into the Great Plains. An isolated severe weather threat could materialize by as early as Tuesday in the lower-Colorado Valley, where strengthening vertical shear and forcing for ascent overspread a marginally unstable environment. Uncertainty remains in how quickly the midlevel trough will move through the Interior West; however, it does appear that severe weather potential may increase over the central U.S. by Wednesday or Thursday of next week.
..Mead.. 10/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, October 20
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 17 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, October 18 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, October 19 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, October 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, October 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140825 SPC AC 140825
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4 through 6/Saturday through Monday
An intense midlevel trough will move off the Atlantic Coast early on Day 4/Saturday in response to strong zonal flow developing along the U.S./Canadian border. Elsewhere, an upper low off the Baja Coast will weaken while accelerating through the Southwest into the Great Plains. In the low levels, a drier and more stable air mass is expected to limit severe weather potential through at least Monday.
### Days 7 and 8/Tuesday and Wednesday
There is good model agreement that a midlevel trough will move inland from the Pacific Coast. Meanwhile, an associated deepening of a lee surface trough is expected over the High Plains, which in turn will promote the poleward flux of an increasingly moist air mass from the Gulf into the Great Plains. An isolated severe weather threat could materialize by as early as Tuesday in the lower-Colorado Valley, where strengthening vertical shear and forcing for ascent overspread a marginally unstable environment. Uncertainty remains in how quickly the midlevel trough will move through the Interior West; however, it does appear that severe weather potential may increase over the central U.S. by Wednesday or Thursday of next week.
..Mead.. 10/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, October 21
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 17 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, October 18 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, October 19 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, October 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, October 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140825 SPC AC 140825
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4 through 6/Saturday through Monday
An intense midlevel trough will move off the Atlantic Coast early on Day 4/Saturday in response to strong zonal flow developing along the U.S./Canadian border. Elsewhere, an upper low off the Baja Coast will weaken while accelerating through the Southwest into the Great Plains. In the low levels, a drier and more stable air mass is expected to limit severe weather potential through at least Monday.
### Days 7 and 8/Tuesday and Wednesday
There is good model agreement that a midlevel trough will move inland from the Pacific Coast. Meanwhile, an associated deepening of a lee surface trough is expected over the High Plains, which in turn will promote the poleward flux of an increasingly moist air mass from the Gulf into the Great Plains. An isolated severe weather threat could materialize by as early as Tuesday in the lower-Colorado Valley, where strengthening vertical shear and forcing for ascent overspread a marginally unstable environment. Uncertainty remains in how quickly the midlevel trough will move through the Interior West; however, it does appear that severe weather potential may increase over the central U.S. by Wednesday or Thursday of next week.
..Mead.. 10/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, October 14
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Thursday, October 15
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Friday, October 16
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Saturday, October 17
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, October 18
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, October 19
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, October 20
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, October 21
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Your Severe Outlook
Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.
Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.
Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.
About Severe Weather Outlook . com
SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.
- tornado hq - live severe weather warnings
- cyclocane - hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones
- tornado solitaire - play cards while you monitor the US severe weather threat
- tertremo - live view of earthquakes around the world
- earthquake solitaire - get live earthquake updates as you play your favorite card game