Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, January 29
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 290541
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.
Synopsis/Discussion
A convectively inactive scenario will persist across the CONUS with virtually nil thunderstorm potential. Longwave trough will persist east of the Rockies with associated cold/continental trajectories prevalent, with upper ridging over the Rockies and Intermountain West. Multiple shortwave troughs will influence the Pacific Northwest, but the potential for lighting-producing convection is likely to remain low even in near-coastal areas given the forecast thermodynamic profiles.
..Guyer/Thornton.. 01/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Friday, January 30
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms appear unlikely Friday through Friday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 290652
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms appear unlikely Friday through Friday night.
Synopsis
Large-scale ridging will generally be maintained across the western US as a broad, multi-component upper trough over the eastern half of the US is forecast to rapidly consolidate and strengthen Friday into early Saturday. A prominent shortwave impulse emanating from southern Canada will merge with several smaller perturbations over the southern MS Valley and Gulf Coast vicinity. The net result will be a large and intense positive tilt upper trough over the southeastern CONUS. This strong trough and 100+ kt mid-level flow will aide the development of an initially weak surface cyclone over the eastern Gulf and FL Peninsula. The low will rapidly deepen late Friday into early Saturday off the Atlantic coast as a cold front moves offshore. Ahead of the front, modest low-level moistening/destabilization is possible over parts of southern FL and the keys. However, this appears short lived and without more substantial ascent/destabilization, thunderstorms are unlikely.
..Lyons.. 01/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Saturday, January 31
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are unlikely Saturday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 290828
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are unlikely Saturday.
Synopsis
A highly amplified flow pattern will persist across the CONUS Saturday with a strong upper trough intensifying over the Southeast and western Atlantic. As the trough matures, a deep surface low will develop and lift northeastward along the Atlantic seaboard. An associated cold front will move out to sea with offshore flow in its wake as ridging and high pressure build across the western and central US. This will suppress substantial inland moisture return and reinforce a cold Arctic air mass over much of the continent. In turn, thunderstorms are unlikely over the CONUS, outside of the offshore waters of far south FL and the Carolina Outer Banks.
..Lyons.. 01/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Sunday, February 1
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, February 1 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, February 2 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, February 3 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, February 4 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, February 5 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290942 SPC AC 290942
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe weather potential is low through the extended forecast period. A strong upper low embedded within persistent broad-scale troughing over the East will move offshore this weekend with several other perturbations behind it. Continued northwesterly flow aloft and the passage of several cold fronts early next week will reinforce a cool air mass over the central US. This will largely suppress substantial inland moisture return for the foreseeable future. While some thunderstorm potential may exist along the Gulf Coast with a more substantial trough passage later next week, overall thunderstorm/severe potential is very low through the extended forecast period.
..Lyons.. 01/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, February 2
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, February 1 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, February 2 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, February 3 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, February 4 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, February 5 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290942 SPC AC 290942
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe weather potential is low through the extended forecast period. A strong upper low embedded within persistent broad-scale troughing over the East will move offshore this weekend with several other perturbations behind it. Continued northwesterly flow aloft and the passage of several cold fronts early next week will reinforce a cool air mass over the central US. This will largely suppress substantial inland moisture return for the foreseeable future. While some thunderstorm potential may exist along the Gulf Coast with a more substantial trough passage later next week, overall thunderstorm/severe potential is very low through the extended forecast period.
..Lyons.. 01/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, February 3
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, February 1 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, February 2 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, February 3 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, February 4 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, February 5 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290942 SPC AC 290942
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe weather potential is low through the extended forecast period. A strong upper low embedded within persistent broad-scale troughing over the East will move offshore this weekend with several other perturbations behind it. Continued northwesterly flow aloft and the passage of several cold fronts early next week will reinforce a cool air mass over the central US. This will largely suppress substantial inland moisture return for the foreseeable future. While some thunderstorm potential may exist along the Gulf Coast with a more substantial trough passage later next week, overall thunderstorm/severe potential is very low through the extended forecast period.
..Lyons.. 01/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, February 4
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, February 1 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, February 2 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, February 3 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, February 4 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, February 5 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290942 SPC AC 290942
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe weather potential is low through the extended forecast period. A strong upper low embedded within persistent broad-scale troughing over the East will move offshore this weekend with several other perturbations behind it. Continued northwesterly flow aloft and the passage of several cold fronts early next week will reinforce a cool air mass over the central US. This will largely suppress substantial inland moisture return for the foreseeable future. While some thunderstorm potential may exist along the Gulf Coast with a more substantial trough passage later next week, overall thunderstorm/severe potential is very low through the extended forecast period.
..Lyons.. 01/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, February 5
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, February 1 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, February 2 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, February 3 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, February 4 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, February 5 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290942 SPC AC 290942
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe weather potential is low through the extended forecast period. A strong upper low embedded within persistent broad-scale troughing over the East will move offshore this weekend with several other perturbations behind it. Continued northwesterly flow aloft and the passage of several cold fronts early next week will reinforce a cool air mass over the central US. This will largely suppress substantial inland moisture return for the foreseeable future. While some thunderstorm potential may exist along the Gulf Coast with a more substantial trough passage later next week, overall thunderstorm/severe potential is very low through the extended forecast period.
..Lyons.. 01/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, January 29
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Friday, January 30
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Saturday, January 31
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Sunday, February 1
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, February 2
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, February 3
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, February 4
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, February 5
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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