Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, September 14
Outlook Summary
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of eastern Nebraska into western Iowa late this afternoon and evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 140542
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NE AND WESTERN IA
### SUMMARY
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of eastern Nebraska into western Iowa late this afternoon and evening.
Eastern NE/western IA
A strong mid/upper-level trough will move eastward from the northern Plains into the Upper Great Lakes through tonight. A deepening surface low will move across the Canadian Prairies, while a secondary low may develop along a trailing cold front/surface trough across the central High Plains. This system will be accompanied by strengthening deep-layer flow from the central Plains into the Upper Midwest.
Extensive elevated convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the period from the mid Missouri Valley northward into the Dakotas and western MN. In the wake of this early-day convection, rich low-level moisture (with dewpoints in the 70s F) is forecast to stream northward into eastern NE and western IA. This moistening combined with relatively steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong destabilization by late afternoon, while low-level and deep-layer shear will become increasingly favorable with time. The resulting environment will become conditionally favorable for supercells capable of all severe hazards.
The strongest large-scale ascent will become focused north of the region by afternoon, and it remains uncertain if heating in the wake of morning convection will be sufficient to remove CINH within the most favorable environment. If a supercell can become established and move through this environment during the late afternoon/early evening, then large to very large hail, localized damaging gusts, and tornadoes will all be possible. While most guidance depicts storm development by early evening, 00Z CAM guidance continues to vary regarding the potential for sustained supercells, with relatively quick clustering possible. Even in the absence of sustained supercell development, the environment will be favorable for severe hail and damaging wind with any persistent clusters into the evening.
Western/north-central KS
Strong heating is expected near/south of a surface trough across parts of western/central KS this afternoon. Scattered storm development is expected by late afternoon from western into north-central KS. Deep-layer shear will be weaker with southwest extent, but steep low-level lapse rates and 25-35 kt of flow in the 850-500 mb layer will support potential for one or more loosely organized clusters with at least localized severe-wind potential.
Four Corners region into AZ
Scattered storm development is expected later today from western CO and southeast UT into parts of AZ/NM, within an anomalously moist environment. The strongest mid/upper-level flow and deep-layer shear within this region is expected over parts of UT/CO, though it is uncertain if diurnal heating/destabilization will be sufficient for an organized severe threat in this area. Some threat for strong gusts and small to near-severe hail could evolve with the strongest storms.
Farther south, flow will be weaker across AZ, resulting in generally disorganized storms. Localized strong gusts will be possible, especially in areas where stronger pre-storm heating occurs during the afternoon.
Coastal NC
A cold front will move southward across NC through the day today. Large-scale ascent will generally be weak, though isolated storm development will be possible as the front encounters richer moisture and any sea breeze boundaries near the coast. Deep-layer shear within a northwesterly flow regime will be sufficient for organized convection, but poor midlevel lapse rates may limit updraft intensity and potential for an organized severe threat. Any sustained storms within this regime could produce locally gusty winds and small hail.
..Dean/Halbert.. 09/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Tuesday, September 15
Outlook Summary
Scattered strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor south to southwest of the Great Lakes through the lower Missouri Valley Tuesday afternoon and evening, accompanied by at least some risk for locally damaging wind gusts.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 140456
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN A CORRIDOR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Scattered strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor south to southwest of the Great Lakes through the lower Missouri Valley Tuesday afternoon and evening, accompanied by at least some risk for locally damaging wind gusts.
Discussion
Latest model output appears in better agreement concerning digging mid-level troughing along the Pacific coast through this period, downstream of a still notable mid-level high centered across the northern mid-latitude eastern Pacific. Coincident with this upstream amplification, initially prominent mid-level ridging centered over the Southeast is forecast to build northwestward across much of the northern Great Plains through Great Lakes region. As this occurs, a deamplifying short wave trough and associated surface cyclone are forecast to continue an east-northeastward migration across the remainder of northwestern Ontario through much of northern Quebec by late Tuesday night.
It appears that a cold front trailing the cyclone will gradually overtake a preceding low-level baroclinic zone, reinforced by considerable ongoing convection and initially slowly advancing across and southeast of the southern Lower Michigan through southern Iowa and northern Kansas vicinity at 12Z Tuesday. A gradual southward progression into the Ohio Valley and across the lower Missouri Valley may proceed Tuesday into Tuesday night, beneath the building mid-level ridge.
Southern Great Lakes through central Great Plains
Particularly from portions of the southern Great Lakes region into the lower Missouri Valley, it appears that the southward progression of the convective outflow reinforced boundary will be initially slow enough to allow for substantive destabilization in close proximity to the modest southern fringe of the westerlies. With surface dew points increasing to near 70 F, steepening low-level lapse rates with insolation may support the development of moderate mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg. Although mid/upper heights may be tending to slowly rise, it appears that mid-level inhibition may remain weak enough to allow for the initiation of increasing, scattered thunderstorm development through the mid to late afternoon. Warm profiles, in general (if not a developing warm layer aloft), may tend to suppress large hail, but thermodynamic profiles characterized by steep lapse rates of potential wet-bulb temperature in lower/mid-levels could contribute to a few downbursts and developing cold pools with a few strong gusts into Tuesday evening.
..Kerr.. 09/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Wednesday, September 16
Outlook Summary
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible (i.e, less than 5 percent probabilities) across the U.S. Wednesday through Wednesday night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 140725
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible (i.e, less than 5 percent probabilities) across the U.S. Wednesday through Wednesday night.
Discussion
It appears that an initially digging short wave trough along the Pacific coast will contribute to the evolution of a mid/upper low centered across northern California by or shortly after the beginning of this period. There it is forecast to generally remain, cut off from the stronger westerlies confined to the northern mid-latitudes.
A couple of notable short wave perturbations will remain progressive within a stronger confluent mid/upper regime across the eastern Canadian Provinces through northern mid-latitude Atlantic, including one forecast to translate east of Newfoundland and Labrador and another digging through northern Manitoba and northwestern Ontario.
In lower latitudes, mid-level ridging likely will remain prominent across much of the central and southern Great Plains through northern Mid Atlantic. More uncertainty exists concerning an easterly wave approaching the Florida Peninsula and a possible mid-level perturbation suppressing the ridging across parts of the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley vicinity.
Based on current model output, a remnant surface frontal zone across the Ohio into lower Missouri Valleys will remain a focus for higher boundary layer moisture content and the development of moderate CAPE with insolation. However, there is spread concerning the degree to which this front remains quasi-stationary, or begins to return northward toward at least a bit more of a favorably sheared regime for organized convection. Given this uncertainty, and the otherwise marginal/isolated nature of the anticipated severe weather potential, severe probabilities for Wednesday through Wednesday night appear less than 5 percent at this time.
..Kerr.. 09/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Thursday, September 17
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 16 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Thursday, September 17 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, September 18 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, September 19 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, September 20 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130820 SPC AC 130820
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range model output indicates that the initially prominent Southeastern mid-level ridge will slowly retrograde west-southwestward and become increasingly suppressed across the lower latitudes late this coming work week into next weekend. However, it appears that the evolving westerlies across the U.S. will remain modest to weak, with little potential for appreciable surface cyclogenesis. While guidance suggests some continuing potential for widely scattered strong thunderstorm development near a lingering frontal zone across the Ohio into lower Missouri Valley on Wednesday, it appears that this will diminish thereafter, with generally negligible risk for organized severe thunderstorm potential into and through next weekend.
..Kerr.. 09/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, September 18
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 16 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Thursday, September 17 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, September 18 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, September 19 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, September 20 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130820 SPC AC 130820
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range model output indicates that the initially prominent Southeastern mid-level ridge will slowly retrograde west-southwestward and become increasingly suppressed across the lower latitudes late this coming work week into next weekend. However, it appears that the evolving westerlies across the U.S. will remain modest to weak, with little potential for appreciable surface cyclogenesis. While guidance suggests some continuing potential for widely scattered strong thunderstorm development near a lingering frontal zone across the Ohio into lower Missouri Valley on Wednesday, it appears that this will diminish thereafter, with generally negligible risk for organized severe thunderstorm potential into and through next weekend.
..Kerr.. 09/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, September 19
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 16 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Thursday, September 17 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, September 18 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, September 19 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, September 20 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130820 SPC AC 130820
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range model output indicates that the initially prominent Southeastern mid-level ridge will slowly retrograde west-southwestward and become increasingly suppressed across the lower latitudes late this coming work week into next weekend. However, it appears that the evolving westerlies across the U.S. will remain modest to weak, with little potential for appreciable surface cyclogenesis. While guidance suggests some continuing potential for widely scattered strong thunderstorm development near a lingering frontal zone across the Ohio into lower Missouri Valley on Wednesday, it appears that this will diminish thereafter, with generally negligible risk for organized severe thunderstorm potential into and through next weekend.
..Kerr.. 09/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, September 20
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 16 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Thursday, September 17 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, September 18 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, September 19 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, September 20 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130820 SPC AC 130820
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range model output indicates that the initially prominent Southeastern mid-level ridge will slowly retrograde west-southwestward and become increasingly suppressed across the lower latitudes late this coming work week into next weekend. However, it appears that the evolving westerlies across the U.S. will remain modest to weak, with little potential for appreciable surface cyclogenesis. While guidance suggests some continuing potential for widely scattered strong thunderstorm development near a lingering frontal zone across the Ohio into lower Missouri Valley on Wednesday, it appears that this will diminish thereafter, with generally negligible risk for organized severe thunderstorm potential into and through next weekend.
..Kerr.. 09/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, September 14
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Tuesday, September 15
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Wednesday, September 16
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Thursday, September 17
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, September 18
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, September 19
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, September 20
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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