Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Monday, July 13

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms with isolated strong to severe winds are still possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the Southeast, southern into central Arizona, and Montana.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 131933

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Valid 132000Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL MONTANA…SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA…AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms with isolated strong to severe winds are still possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the Southeast, southern into central Arizona, and Montana.

20Z Update

The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged, with only minor changes made to the thunder/severe probabilities to reflect the latest observations and guidance consensus.

..Squitieri.. 07/13/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026/

An expansive upper ridge over the northern Plains will dominate the weather across the US today, with only small areas of risk of severe storms.

FL/GA

A hot and humid air mass is present today over the FL Peninsula into parts of southeast GA/SC. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected to form in this regime, with the strongest cells capable of gusty/damaging winds.

AZ

Widespread convection yesterday has resulted in a moist boundary layer across southern AZ, where strong heating will occur again today. This will lead to another round of scattered storms moving off the higher terrain of eastern AZ and speading westward into the Deserts. A few of the storms may produce gusty/damaging winds.

MT

Morning CAM solutions are consistent on the forecast of a cluster of high-based thunderstorms forming over the mountains of southern MT and tracking north-northeastward during the evening. Forecast soundings would support some risk of a gusty/damaging winds in these storms.

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, July 14

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and evening across portions of New England on Tuesday. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of western and central Montana.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 131731

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and evening across portions of New England on Tuesday. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of western and central Montana.

Synopsis

Upper-level ridging will continue across much of the CONUS on Tuesday. A strong upper trough will move into New England during the evening/overnight along with a surface cold front. Additional moderate mid-level flow will be present over the northern Rockies along with weaker shortwave troughs moving through the region.

New England

Strong northwesterly flow aloft will be present at the start of the forecast period. Models suggest that a subtle perturbation may be moving through the region early in the day. Some convection may be associated with this feature, though the expectation is that this activity will be weakening with time. Any cloud cover from this activity would delay surface heating in some areas. Nevertheless, heating/moistening ahead of the cold front appears more than sufficient for severe storm development by late afternoon into the evening. Initial development will likely occur in southern Quebec along the front and move into New England. The strongest forcing for ascent within the region will also be after 03Z. 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE near the Canadian border during the late afternoon with around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE persisting into early evening across parts of New England. Linear forcing along the cold front will not be overly strong and large component of the 50+ kt of effective shear will be perpendicular to this boundary. Supercell structures will be favored, though bowing structures may also develop due to storm interactions or locally greater linear forcing. Large hail, including potential for 2+ in. with supercells, is possible. Severe/damaging winds are also expected. Bowing segments that develop will have potential for significant wind gusts. Low-level hodographs will also support a threat for a few tornadoes. A strong tornado is possible, but will be conditional on a discrete supercell persisting into the early evening.

Montana

Development of a surface low in parts of eastern Montana/Wyoming will draw low-level moisture westward along a stalled surface boundary. Additionally, mid-level moisture will increase from the southwest around the western edge of the upper-level ridge. This, coupled with a shortwave trough during the late afternoon, will promote widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms within the higher terrain of southwest/central Montana. Around 30-35 kt of effective shear will promote a mix of marginal supercells and linear segments. Moisture will be more modest with western extent and outflow production will be more efficient. This should generally lead to more linear modes quickly. Buoyancy will also be modest (750-1250 J/kg MUCAPE) given 50s F dewpoints into western Montana. North of the surface low there will likely be a belt of greater surface moisture (low 60s F, potentially) that advects into the higher terrain of central Montana. Here, a couple of supercells could develop and be surface based. This could also be an area where linear structures could better organize due to more moist inflow. At present time, this more favorable environment appears too spatially limited for an increase in wind/hail probabilities.

..Wendt.. 07/13/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, July 15

Outlook Summary

The potential for organized severe storms continues to appear low on Wednesday.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 131929

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

The potential for organized severe storms continues to appear low on Wednesday.

Synopsis

An expansive ridge will be present across the CONUS on Wednesday. Upper-level troughs will be present near the Northwest coast and in the Northeast, however. A few stronger storms will be possible within western and central Montana, though repeated convection on previous days will likely lead to cooler temperatures and uncertain storm intensity. While there still is some uncertainty to the track of the upper trough off the Northwest coast, some potential exists for gusty outflow wind in central/eastern Oregon. Across parts of the Mid-Atlantic, a moist and unstable airmass will be present south of a surface boundary. Subtle mid-level height falls may be enough to initiate isolated thunderstorms. However, there is also potential for the environment to stay capped. The environment would support damaging winds if storms can form.

..Wendt.. 07/13/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Thursday, July 16

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130905 SPC AC 130905

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0405 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

DISCUSSION

All ensemble guidance suites are in broad agreement that the central US ridge will once again build westward in response to the development of a eastern North America long-wave trough during the forecast period. However, significant differences exist within and between ensembles regarding the timing and exact nature of this transition.

At the start of the forecast period, a frontal boundary will be pushing south and west in the wake of a strong short-wave trough that moved across New England in the prior days. The trend over the past 48 hours is for this front to push farther south and west, bringing a continental dry airmass into New England and portions of the Mid-Atlantic. For example, several days ago ensemble guidance was in good agreement that the front would be draped across the Mid-Atlantic on Friday. Many, but not all, of the recent runs now push the front south into southern Virginia and northern North Carolina. This results in significant uncertainty regarding the potential severe weather environment on Friday (Day 5) across the Mid-Atlantic. For example, the GEFS mean temperature for Washington D.C. is 93F on Friday afternoon, while the EPS mean temperature is 102F. However, both ensembles have dewpoint temperatures in the 50Fs.

Given the increasing uncertainty as to the location of the surface boundary on Friday and the overall quality of the severe weather environment, unconditional 15% severe probabilities for Friday are removed with this forecast. It is possible that severe probabilities may be reintroduced in later outlooks should it become apparent that the surface boundary washes out earlier than expected and quality low-level moisture is able to return sooner.

That said, the front should begin to dissipate by Saturday in response to a mid-level trough digging southeast across the Great Lakes. This will allow rich boundary-layer moisture to advect northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. This increase in boundary-layer moisture and strong diurnal heating will allow for afternoon MUCAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg, perhaps locally higher on Saturday and into Sunday.

This unstable and vertically sheared environment will be ripe for thunderstorm/severe thunderstorm development ahead of any digging mid-level trough. However, as alluded to previously, the timing, magnitude, and number of these troughs is highly variable within the ensemble guidance, leading to too little confidence to pinpoint where and when unconditional severe probabilities should be added. As confidence in the timing, track, and strength of these embedded troughs becomes clear, severe probabilities will likely be needed somewhere across the region stretching from the Upper Midwest southeast into the Mid-Atlantic for one or more days.

..Marsh.. 07/13/2026

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Outlook for Friday, July 17

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130905 SPC AC 130905

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0405 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

DISCUSSION

All ensemble guidance suites are in broad agreement that the central US ridge will once again build westward in response to the development of a eastern North America long-wave trough during the forecast period. However, significant differences exist within and between ensembles regarding the timing and exact nature of this transition.

At the start of the forecast period, a frontal boundary will be pushing south and west in the wake of a strong short-wave trough that moved across New England in the prior days. The trend over the past 48 hours is for this front to push farther south and west, bringing a continental dry airmass into New England and portions of the Mid-Atlantic. For example, several days ago ensemble guidance was in good agreement that the front would be draped across the Mid-Atlantic on Friday. Many, but not all, of the recent runs now push the front south into southern Virginia and northern North Carolina. This results in significant uncertainty regarding the potential severe weather environment on Friday (Day 5) across the Mid-Atlantic. For example, the GEFS mean temperature for Washington D.C. is 93F on Friday afternoon, while the EPS mean temperature is 102F. However, both ensembles have dewpoint temperatures in the 50Fs.

Given the increasing uncertainty as to the location of the surface boundary on Friday and the overall quality of the severe weather environment, unconditional 15% severe probabilities for Friday are removed with this forecast. It is possible that severe probabilities may be reintroduced in later outlooks should it become apparent that the surface boundary washes out earlier than expected and quality low-level moisture is able to return sooner.

That said, the front should begin to dissipate by Saturday in response to a mid-level trough digging southeast across the Great Lakes. This will allow rich boundary-layer moisture to advect northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. This increase in boundary-layer moisture and strong diurnal heating will allow for afternoon MUCAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg, perhaps locally higher on Saturday and into Sunday.

This unstable and vertically sheared environment will be ripe for thunderstorm/severe thunderstorm development ahead of any digging mid-level trough. However, as alluded to previously, the timing, magnitude, and number of these troughs is highly variable within the ensemble guidance, leading to too little confidence to pinpoint where and when unconditional severe probabilities should be added. As confidence in the timing, track, and strength of these embedded troughs becomes clear, severe probabilities will likely be needed somewhere across the region stretching from the Upper Midwest southeast into the Mid-Atlantic for one or more days.

..Marsh.. 07/13/2026

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Outlook for Saturday, July 18

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130905 SPC AC 130905

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0405 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

DISCUSSION

All ensemble guidance suites are in broad agreement that the central US ridge will once again build westward in response to the development of a eastern North America long-wave trough during the forecast period. However, significant differences exist within and between ensembles regarding the timing and exact nature of this transition.

At the start of the forecast period, a frontal boundary will be pushing south and west in the wake of a strong short-wave trough that moved across New England in the prior days. The trend over the past 48 hours is for this front to push farther south and west, bringing a continental dry airmass into New England and portions of the Mid-Atlantic. For example, several days ago ensemble guidance was in good agreement that the front would be draped across the Mid-Atlantic on Friday. Many, but not all, of the recent runs now push the front south into southern Virginia and northern North Carolina. This results in significant uncertainty regarding the potential severe weather environment on Friday (Day 5) across the Mid-Atlantic. For example, the GEFS mean temperature for Washington D.C. is 93F on Friday afternoon, while the EPS mean temperature is 102F. However, both ensembles have dewpoint temperatures in the 50Fs.

Given the increasing uncertainty as to the location of the surface boundary on Friday and the overall quality of the severe weather environment, unconditional 15% severe probabilities for Friday are removed with this forecast. It is possible that severe probabilities may be reintroduced in later outlooks should it become apparent that the surface boundary washes out earlier than expected and quality low-level moisture is able to return sooner.

That said, the front should begin to dissipate by Saturday in response to a mid-level trough digging southeast across the Great Lakes. This will allow rich boundary-layer moisture to advect northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. This increase in boundary-layer moisture and strong diurnal heating will allow for afternoon MUCAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg, perhaps locally higher on Saturday and into Sunday.

This unstable and vertically sheared environment will be ripe for thunderstorm/severe thunderstorm development ahead of any digging mid-level trough. However, as alluded to previously, the timing, magnitude, and number of these troughs is highly variable within the ensemble guidance, leading to too little confidence to pinpoint where and when unconditional severe probabilities should be added. As confidence in the timing, track, and strength of these embedded troughs becomes clear, severe probabilities will likely be needed somewhere across the region stretching from the Upper Midwest southeast into the Mid-Atlantic for one or more days.

..Marsh.. 07/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, July 19

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130905 SPC AC 130905

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0405 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

DISCUSSION

All ensemble guidance suites are in broad agreement that the central US ridge will once again build westward in response to the development of a eastern North America long-wave trough during the forecast period. However, significant differences exist within and between ensembles regarding the timing and exact nature of this transition.

At the start of the forecast period, a frontal boundary will be pushing south and west in the wake of a strong short-wave trough that moved across New England in the prior days. The trend over the past 48 hours is for this front to push farther south and west, bringing a continental dry airmass into New England and portions of the Mid-Atlantic. For example, several days ago ensemble guidance was in good agreement that the front would be draped across the Mid-Atlantic on Friday. Many, but not all, of the recent runs now push the front south into southern Virginia and northern North Carolina. This results in significant uncertainty regarding the potential severe weather environment on Friday (Day 5) across the Mid-Atlantic. For example, the GEFS mean temperature for Washington D.C. is 93F on Friday afternoon, while the EPS mean temperature is 102F. However, both ensembles have dewpoint temperatures in the 50Fs.

Given the increasing uncertainty as to the location of the surface boundary on Friday and the overall quality of the severe weather environment, unconditional 15% severe probabilities for Friday are removed with this forecast. It is possible that severe probabilities may be reintroduced in later outlooks should it become apparent that the surface boundary washes out earlier than expected and quality low-level moisture is able to return sooner.

That said, the front should begin to dissipate by Saturday in response to a mid-level trough digging southeast across the Great Lakes. This will allow rich boundary-layer moisture to advect northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. This increase in boundary-layer moisture and strong diurnal heating will allow for afternoon MUCAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg, perhaps locally higher on Saturday and into Sunday.

This unstable and vertically sheared environment will be ripe for thunderstorm/severe thunderstorm development ahead of any digging mid-level trough. However, as alluded to previously, the timing, magnitude, and number of these troughs is highly variable within the ensemble guidance, leading to too little confidence to pinpoint where and when unconditional severe probabilities should be added. As confidence in the timing, track, and strength of these embedded troughs becomes clear, severe probabilities will likely be needed somewhere across the region stretching from the Upper Midwest southeast into the Mid-Atlantic for one or more days.

..Marsh.. 07/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, July 20

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130905 SPC AC 130905

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0405 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

DISCUSSION

All ensemble guidance suites are in broad agreement that the central US ridge will once again build westward in response to the development of a eastern North America long-wave trough during the forecast period. However, significant differences exist within and between ensembles regarding the timing and exact nature of this transition.

At the start of the forecast period, a frontal boundary will be pushing south and west in the wake of a strong short-wave trough that moved across New England in the prior days. The trend over the past 48 hours is for this front to push farther south and west, bringing a continental dry airmass into New England and portions of the Mid-Atlantic. For example, several days ago ensemble guidance was in good agreement that the front would be draped across the Mid-Atlantic on Friday. Many, but not all, of the recent runs now push the front south into southern Virginia and northern North Carolina. This results in significant uncertainty regarding the potential severe weather environment on Friday (Day 5) across the Mid-Atlantic. For example, the GEFS mean temperature for Washington D.C. is 93F on Friday afternoon, while the EPS mean temperature is 102F. However, both ensembles have dewpoint temperatures in the 50Fs.

Given the increasing uncertainty as to the location of the surface boundary on Friday and the overall quality of the severe weather environment, unconditional 15% severe probabilities for Friday are removed with this forecast. It is possible that severe probabilities may be reintroduced in later outlooks should it become apparent that the surface boundary washes out earlier than expected and quality low-level moisture is able to return sooner.

That said, the front should begin to dissipate by Saturday in response to a mid-level trough digging southeast across the Great Lakes. This will allow rich boundary-layer moisture to advect northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. This increase in boundary-layer moisture and strong diurnal heating will allow for afternoon MUCAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg, perhaps locally higher on Saturday and into Sunday.

This unstable and vertically sheared environment will be ripe for thunderstorm/severe thunderstorm development ahead of any digging mid-level trough. However, as alluded to previously, the timing, magnitude, and number of these troughs is highly variable within the ensemble guidance, leading to too little confidence to pinpoint where and when unconditional severe probabilities should be added. As confidence in the timing, track, and strength of these embedded troughs becomes clear, severe probabilities will likely be needed somewhere across the region stretching from the Upper Midwest southeast into the Mid-Atlantic for one or more days.

..Marsh.. 07/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Monday, July 13

TORNADO: low

HAIL: low

WIND: 5%

Tuesday, July 14

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 30%

Wednesday, July 15

ANY SEVERE: low

Thursday, July 16

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, July 17

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Saturday, July 18

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Sunday, July 19

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Monday, July 20

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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