Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, November 12
Outlook Summary
Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing isolated severe hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado may impact parts of the coastal Mid-Atlantic this afternoon.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 121248
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026
Valid 121300Z - 131200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC
### SUMMARY
Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing isolated severe hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado may impact parts of the coastal Mid-Atlantic this afternoon.
Coastal Mid-Atlantic
Within large-scale upper troughing encompassing much of the central/eastern CONUS, an embedded mid-level shortwave trough over the OH Valley will move eastward across the Mid-Atlantic today. A related weak surface low is also expected to develop eastward across MD/DE/southern NJ this afternoon. While low-level moisture ahead of these features should remain modest over land (generally low to mid 50s surface dewpoints), an effective warm front is forecast to extend from the surface low across eastern PA into NJ. Thunderstorms may initiate along/near this boundary by 16-18Z, with weak instability expected to develop as filtered daytime heating occurs. Stronger flow associated with a mid-level jet will tend to remain displaced to the south of the coastal Mid-Atlantic through the day, but veering winds with height through mid-levels will still support around 25-40 kt of deep-layer shear.
Given cold mid-level temperatures (around -20 to -22 C at 500 mb) and modestly steepened lapse rates aloft, any of the stronger cells that develop could produce severe hail. Isolated damaging winds also appear possible as this convection spreads from eastern PA into NJ and vicinity before moving offshore. Low-level winds and related shear should remain fairly modest, but a somewhat more favorable zone for a tornado may exist if a persistent supercell can interact with/cross the surface warm front this afternoon across eastern PA into NJ. The northern extent of the severe risk will likely remain constrained by the warm front, and it still appears likely that appreciable severe risk will tend to remain offshore/south of Long Island and southern New England.
..Gleason/Wendt.. 11/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Friday, November 13
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. Friday and Friday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 120643
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. Friday and Friday night.
DISCUSSION
A large-scale upper-level trough will remain over the eastern U.S. on Friday, as another upper-level trough moves into the western U.S. Ahead of this second trough, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible within very weak instability in parts of the Desert Southwest and southern High Plains. Additional storms will be possible along and just inland from the northern California and Oregon coasts. A few strong wind gusts will be possible, but no appreciable severe threat is expected due to the limited instability. Elsewhere across the continental U.S. thunderstorms are not forecast Friday and Friday night.
..Broyles.. 11/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Saturday, November 14
Outlook Summary
No severe thunderstorms are forecast across the U.S. Saturday and Saturday night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 120743
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
No severe thunderstorms are forecast across the U.S. Saturday and Saturday night.
DISCUSSION
A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Desert Southwest on Saturday and into the southern Plains Saturday night. Thunderstorms will be possible near the trough during the day from the Four Corners southeastward into the southern Rockies. As the trough moves into the southern Plains Saturday night, thunderstorm development will be possible across parts of west and central Texas. If the ECMWF solution pans out, which is much faster and further south, increasing low-level moisture and instability during the overnight period could be enough for a few strong storms in the Texas Hill Country. If later models runs validate the ECMWF solution, a Marginal may need to be considered for parts of west-central and central Texas, mainly for Saturday night.
..Broyles.. 11/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Sunday, November 15
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, November 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, November 16 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, November 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, November 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, November 19 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120800 SPC AC 120800
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains on Sunday/Day 4. Ahead of this feature, a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place across parts of south and central Texas eastward to the lower to middle Texas Coast. Thunderstorms that develop within areas of stronger instability, could have potential for isolated severe wind gusts. The trough is forecast to move eastward across the Gulf and through the Southeast from Monday into Tuesday. On those days, thunderstorms are expected to remain mostly offshore from the central Gulf Coast.
Further west on Tuesday/Day 6, an upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the Desert Southwest. Ahead of this trough, thunderstorms will be possible across parts of southern California and Arizona during the day, and in the southern Rockies Tuesday night. Uncertainty increases on Wednesday and Thursday, but it appears the trough in the Desert Southwest could move into the Great Plains. If this were to occur, thunderstorms would be possible in parts of the southern Plains on Thursday as the trough passes.
In spite of the chances for storms across parts of the southern U.S. during the Day 4 to 8 period, predictability concerning severe potential is low at this time.
..Broyles.. 11/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, November 16
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, November 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, November 16 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, November 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, November 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, November 19 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120800 SPC AC 120800
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains on Sunday/Day 4. Ahead of this feature, a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place across parts of south and central Texas eastward to the lower to middle Texas Coast. Thunderstorms that develop within areas of stronger instability, could have potential for isolated severe wind gusts. The trough is forecast to move eastward across the Gulf and through the Southeast from Monday into Tuesday. On those days, thunderstorms are expected to remain mostly offshore from the central Gulf Coast.
Further west on Tuesday/Day 6, an upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the Desert Southwest. Ahead of this trough, thunderstorms will be possible across parts of southern California and Arizona during the day, and in the southern Rockies Tuesday night. Uncertainty increases on Wednesday and Thursday, but it appears the trough in the Desert Southwest could move into the Great Plains. If this were to occur, thunderstorms would be possible in parts of the southern Plains on Thursday as the trough passes.
In spite of the chances for storms across parts of the southern U.S. during the Day 4 to 8 period, predictability concerning severe potential is low at this time.
..Broyles.. 11/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, November 17
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, November 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, November 16 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, November 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, November 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, November 19 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120800 SPC AC 120800
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains on Sunday/Day 4. Ahead of this feature, a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place across parts of south and central Texas eastward to the lower to middle Texas Coast. Thunderstorms that develop within areas of stronger instability, could have potential for isolated severe wind gusts. The trough is forecast to move eastward across the Gulf and through the Southeast from Monday into Tuesday. On those days, thunderstorms are expected to remain mostly offshore from the central Gulf Coast.
Further west on Tuesday/Day 6, an upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the Desert Southwest. Ahead of this trough, thunderstorms will be possible across parts of southern California and Arizona during the day, and in the southern Rockies Tuesday night. Uncertainty increases on Wednesday and Thursday, but it appears the trough in the Desert Southwest could move into the Great Plains. If this were to occur, thunderstorms would be possible in parts of the southern Plains on Thursday as the trough passes.
In spite of the chances for storms across parts of the southern U.S. during the Day 4 to 8 period, predictability concerning severe potential is low at this time.
..Broyles.. 11/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, November 18
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, November 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, November 16 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, November 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, November 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, November 19 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120800 SPC AC 120800
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains on Sunday/Day 4. Ahead of this feature, a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place across parts of south and central Texas eastward to the lower to middle Texas Coast. Thunderstorms that develop within areas of stronger instability, could have potential for isolated severe wind gusts. The trough is forecast to move eastward across the Gulf and through the Southeast from Monday into Tuesday. On those days, thunderstorms are expected to remain mostly offshore from the central Gulf Coast.
Further west on Tuesday/Day 6, an upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the Desert Southwest. Ahead of this trough, thunderstorms will be possible across parts of southern California and Arizona during the day, and in the southern Rockies Tuesday night. Uncertainty increases on Wednesday and Thursday, but it appears the trough in the Desert Southwest could move into the Great Plains. If this were to occur, thunderstorms would be possible in parts of the southern Plains on Thursday as the trough passes.
In spite of the chances for storms across parts of the southern U.S. during the Day 4 to 8 period, predictability concerning severe potential is low at this time.
..Broyles.. 11/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, November 19
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, November 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, November 16 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, November 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, November 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, November 19 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120800 SPC AC 120800
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains on Sunday/Day 4. Ahead of this feature, a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place across parts of south and central Texas eastward to the lower to middle Texas Coast. Thunderstorms that develop within areas of stronger instability, could have potential for isolated severe wind gusts. The trough is forecast to move eastward across the Gulf and through the Southeast from Monday into Tuesday. On those days, thunderstorms are expected to remain mostly offshore from the central Gulf Coast.
Further west on Tuesday/Day 6, an upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the Desert Southwest. Ahead of this trough, thunderstorms will be possible across parts of southern California and Arizona during the day, and in the southern Rockies Tuesday night. Uncertainty increases on Wednesday and Thursday, but it appears the trough in the Desert Southwest could move into the Great Plains. If this were to occur, thunderstorms would be possible in parts of the southern Plains on Thursday as the trough passes.
In spite of the chances for storms across parts of the southern U.S. during the Day 4 to 8 period, predictability concerning severe potential is low at this time.
..Broyles.. 11/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, November 12
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Friday, November 13
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Saturday, November 14
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Sunday, November 15
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, November 16
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, November 17
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, November 18
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, November 19
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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