Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, August 15
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail remain possible from late afternoon into the evening across the central High Plains. Severe wind gusts may also still occur this afternoon through early evening across parts of the Ohio Valley and Southeast.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 151941
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
Valid 152000Z - 161200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail remain possible from late afternoon into the evening across the central High Plains. Severe wind gusts may also still occur this afternoon through early evening across parts of the Ohio Valley and Southeast.
20Z Update
The previous forecast (see below) remains generally on track, with only minor changes made to the 20Z Day 1 Convective Outlook Update to reflect the latest observations and latest guidance consensus. There were considerations to add a Category 1/Marginal Risk for severe wind/hail over portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies given appreciable cool temperatures aloft overspreading a heated boundary layer. Nonetheless, vertical wind shear should remain quite weak. Therefore, while a 50+ kt gust or instance of 1+ inch hail may occur with any of the stronger storms, the severe threat should be very sparse, precluding severe probabilities this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 08/15/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1135 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026/
Front Range/Central High Plains
Modestly strong southwesterly flow aloft coupled with strong daytime heating, low-level upslope flow, and orographic lift will support another day of thunderstorms regionally. These thunderstorms should gradually move off the higher terrain into the central High Plains later this afternoon, where a moderately buoyant airmass will be in place. Around 30-35 kt of effective bulk shear is expected over the region, which will support a mixed mode with supercells and multicell line segments. Isolated large hail is possible with any supercells, while severe wind gusts will be possible with both supercells and line segments. The severe threat should persist into the evening as this complex of storms moves eastward through the central High Plains including west/southwest Kansas.
Midwest/Middle Ohio Valley
Thunderstorms have generally weakened since the overnight, although scattered showers/some thunderstorms and plentiful cloud cover continue in areas progressively north of the Ohio River. An MCV is readily apparent in observational data as it continues to move into northwest Indiana, with an enhanced belt (40+ kt) of westerly winds associated with the MCV per regional WSR-88D VWP data.
As clouds thin/abate, a gradual increase in renewed thunderstorm coverage and intensity is expected later this afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates will be poor, but dewpoints in the 70s F will support moderate buoyancy, particularly in areas where cloud cover does not overly inhibit diurnal heating, which will tend to generally be southward toward the Ohio River. Strong updrafts and high precipitable water will support the potential for wet microbursts capable of producing damaging gusts, and some enhancement to the low-level winds could also yield a brief tornado.
Central Appalachians/Carolinas/Georgia
A very moist airmass, characterized by dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, is in place regionally. Strong heating will destabilize the airmass by the early afternoon, resulting in a large reservoir of moderate buoyancy. Thunderstorm development is anticipated within this destabilized airmass across the higher terrain of the central Appalachians as well as any area of low-level convergence across the remainder of the region. Vertical shear will be weak, and limited storm organization is anticipated. Even so, the moderate buoyancy could still support updrafts/downdrafts strong enough to produce occasional damaging gusts.
Central Plains/Mid Missouri Valley to Mid Mississippi Valley
Elevated thunderstorms are expected again tonight, initiated by both an approaching cold front and warm-air advection. Ample low-level moisture and moderate buoyancy will be in place, but vertical shear will be marginal. Isolated strong to severe storms are expected, but a predominantly elevated and clustered storm mode should limit the overall severe potential.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Sunday, August 16
Outlook Summary
Severe storms are possible across parts of the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic, and in parts of the central High Plains Sunday afternoon and evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 151729
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC…AND OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Severe storms are possible across parts of the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic, and in parts of the central High Plains Sunday afternoon and evening.
OH Valley eastward into VA
A weak shortwave trough associated with ongoing convection is forecast to move across the OH Valley and into VA late. Low pressure is forecast to develop near the Lower Great Lakes, with a trough sweeping across OH, western PA and WV. In the wake of early activity, strong heating near the surface trough along with 70s F dewpoints will yield moderate instability, with scattered storms developing during the afternoon and spreading rapidly east/southeast.
Shear profiles appear sufficient for a few supercells, but midlevel lapse rates will be poor which will limit hail potential. Veering winds with height and effective SRH over 200 m2/s2 may support a brief tornado, but damaging wind gusts appear most likely as the air mass will be very moist and 850 mb winds increase out of the southwest at over 30 kt resulting in progressive outflows.
High Plains
Midlevel northwest winds will range from 15 kt over northeast NM to 25-30 kt from CO northward, while surface winds remain weak and out of the southeast. This will maintain the moist air mass over the region as strong heating leads to 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE from NM northward to the Black Hills. Scattered afternoon storms are likely to initiate in the uncapped air mass near the higher elevations, with perhaps a greater storm concentration over CO and NM. Sufficient deep-shear will favor cells capable of hail over 1.00". Some clusters is likely especially over southern areas, with additional strong gusts possible into the TX/OK Panhandles where a weak wind shift will exist.
..Jewell.. 08/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Monday, August 17
Outlook Summary
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon and evening across portions of the northern and central Plains, and parts of the southern Appalachians/Carolinas.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 151930
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon and evening across portions of the northern and central Plains, and parts of the southern Appalachians/Carolinas.
Central to Northern Plains
As an upper low moves into northern Ontario, gradual height falls will occur into the northern Plains on Monday. Midlevel northwesterlies of 40-50 kt will be common over the Dakotas and MN, with 30 kt flow southward toward I-80. A cold front will move across the Dakotas and into MN, with the front stalling over NE. Dewpoints in the 60s, strong heating and steep lapse rates will favor areas of moderate instability ahead of the front, with storms developing late afternoon. Scattered cells may produce large hail along this boundary, with an additional threat of damaging winds and possibly evening MCS over NE.
Southern Appalachians into the Carolinas
Mid to high level winds of 20-30 kt will remain over the region on Monday, with relatively warm temperatures aloft. Still, substantial moisture will remain in place, with areas of moderate instability developing as the surface trough deepens. An uncapped air mass and convergence along the wind shift will support scattered afternoon storms, and some may produce locally damaging gusts as they travel southeastward through the evening.
..Jewell.. 08/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Tuesday, August 18
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, August 18 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, August 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, August 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, August 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, August 22 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150752 SPC AC 150752
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Tue - NE/IA and vicinity
An upper trough over the Great Lakes/Midwest will deepen on Tuesday, with increasing northwesterly flow aloft overspreading portions of the northern/central Plains to the Mid/Upper MS Valley. Rich boundary layer moisture will be in place ahead of a south/southeastward-developing surface front. There is some uncertainty regarding possible early-day convection of cloud debris across parts of the region. However, most guidance suggests a corridor of strong instability will develop by afternoon. Supercell wind profiles will support organized cells, possibly growing upscale with time along the surface front. Initially, a large hail risk could transition toward more of a damaging wind risk, particularly if upscale growth does occur as storms develop southeast through the evening.
Days 5-8
Upper trough will deepen across the eastern U.S. and persist into the weekend. Meanwhile, an amplified upper ridge will remain in place across the western U.S. A surface front will sag south and east on Wednesday and Thursday as upper trough deepens and surface high pressure builds over the Great Lakes. Some isolated severe risk could emerge over the Mid-South/TN valley toward the Eastern Seaboard in response, but deep-layer flow will remain weak and low-level winds mostly parallel to the surface front, limiting a more substantial/organized risk.
..Leitman.. 08/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, August 19
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, August 18 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, August 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, August 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, August 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, August 22 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150752 SPC AC 150752
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Tue - NE/IA and vicinity
An upper trough over the Great Lakes/Midwest will deepen on Tuesday, with increasing northwesterly flow aloft overspreading portions of the northern/central Plains to the Mid/Upper MS Valley. Rich boundary layer moisture will be in place ahead of a south/southeastward-developing surface front. There is some uncertainty regarding possible early-day convection of cloud debris across parts of the region. However, most guidance suggests a corridor of strong instability will develop by afternoon. Supercell wind profiles will support organized cells, possibly growing upscale with time along the surface front. Initially, a large hail risk could transition toward more of a damaging wind risk, particularly if upscale growth does occur as storms develop southeast through the evening.
Days 5-8
Upper trough will deepen across the eastern U.S. and persist into the weekend. Meanwhile, an amplified upper ridge will remain in place across the western U.S. A surface front will sag south and east on Wednesday and Thursday as upper trough deepens and surface high pressure builds over the Great Lakes. Some isolated severe risk could emerge over the Mid-South/TN valley toward the Eastern Seaboard in response, but deep-layer flow will remain weak and low-level winds mostly parallel to the surface front, limiting a more substantial/organized risk.
..Leitman.. 08/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, August 20
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, August 18 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, August 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, August 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, August 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, August 22 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150752 SPC AC 150752
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Tue - NE/IA and vicinity
An upper trough over the Great Lakes/Midwest will deepen on Tuesday, with increasing northwesterly flow aloft overspreading portions of the northern/central Plains to the Mid/Upper MS Valley. Rich boundary layer moisture will be in place ahead of a south/southeastward-developing surface front. There is some uncertainty regarding possible early-day convection of cloud debris across parts of the region. However, most guidance suggests a corridor of strong instability will develop by afternoon. Supercell wind profiles will support organized cells, possibly growing upscale with time along the surface front. Initially, a large hail risk could transition toward more of a damaging wind risk, particularly if upscale growth does occur as storms develop southeast through the evening.
Days 5-8
Upper trough will deepen across the eastern U.S. and persist into the weekend. Meanwhile, an amplified upper ridge will remain in place across the western U.S. A surface front will sag south and east on Wednesday and Thursday as upper trough deepens and surface high pressure builds over the Great Lakes. Some isolated severe risk could emerge over the Mid-South/TN valley toward the Eastern Seaboard in response, but deep-layer flow will remain weak and low-level winds mostly parallel to the surface front, limiting a more substantial/organized risk.
..Leitman.. 08/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, August 21
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, August 18 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, August 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, August 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, August 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, August 22 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150752 SPC AC 150752
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Tue - NE/IA and vicinity
An upper trough over the Great Lakes/Midwest will deepen on Tuesday, with increasing northwesterly flow aloft overspreading portions of the northern/central Plains to the Mid/Upper MS Valley. Rich boundary layer moisture will be in place ahead of a south/southeastward-developing surface front. There is some uncertainty regarding possible early-day convection of cloud debris across parts of the region. However, most guidance suggests a corridor of strong instability will develop by afternoon. Supercell wind profiles will support organized cells, possibly growing upscale with time along the surface front. Initially, a large hail risk could transition toward more of a damaging wind risk, particularly if upscale growth does occur as storms develop southeast through the evening.
Days 5-8
Upper trough will deepen across the eastern U.S. and persist into the weekend. Meanwhile, an amplified upper ridge will remain in place across the western U.S. A surface front will sag south and east on Wednesday and Thursday as upper trough deepens and surface high pressure builds over the Great Lakes. Some isolated severe risk could emerge over the Mid-South/TN valley toward the Eastern Seaboard in response, but deep-layer flow will remain weak and low-level winds mostly parallel to the surface front, limiting a more substantial/organized risk.
..Leitman.. 08/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, August 22
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, August 18 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, August 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, August 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, August 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, August 22 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150752 SPC AC 150752
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Tue - NE/IA and vicinity
An upper trough over the Great Lakes/Midwest will deepen on Tuesday, with increasing northwesterly flow aloft overspreading portions of the northern/central Plains to the Mid/Upper MS Valley. Rich boundary layer moisture will be in place ahead of a south/southeastward-developing surface front. There is some uncertainty regarding possible early-day convection of cloud debris across parts of the region. However, most guidance suggests a corridor of strong instability will develop by afternoon. Supercell wind profiles will support organized cells, possibly growing upscale with time along the surface front. Initially, a large hail risk could transition toward more of a damaging wind risk, particularly if upscale growth does occur as storms develop southeast through the evening.
Days 5-8
Upper trough will deepen across the eastern U.S. and persist into the weekend. Meanwhile, an amplified upper ridge will remain in place across the western U.S. A surface front will sag south and east on Wednesday and Thursday as upper trough deepens and surface high pressure builds over the Great Lakes. Some isolated severe risk could emerge over the Mid-South/TN valley toward the Eastern Seaboard in response, but deep-layer flow will remain weak and low-level winds mostly parallel to the surface front, limiting a more substantial/organized risk.
..Leitman.. 08/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, August 15
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Sunday, August 16
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Monday, August 17
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Tuesday, August 18
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Wednesday, August 19
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, August 20
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, August 21
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, August 22
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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