Severe Weather Outlook

show me my personal outlook →

National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Wednesday, April 8

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 090056

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026

Valid 090100Z - 091200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

Discussion

The Marginal Risk across western/central Kansas was removed with this outlook update. A cluster of thunderstorm activity continues to shift south and east, but has largely remained below severe limits. This activity is expected to further weaken over the next couple of hours with the loss of daytime heating and gradually waning MLCAPE.

..Thornton.. 04/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Thursday, April 9

Outlook Summary

Areas of hail and strong wind gusts are expected Thursday afternoon and evening in parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley westward into Kansas. Locally very large hail is possible.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 081720

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI

### SUMMARY

Areas of hail and strong wind gusts are expected Thursday afternoon and evening in parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley westward into Kansas. Locally very large hail is possible.

Synopsis

An area of cyclonic flow aloft will exist from central into eastern Canada, with various waves rotating from the northern Plains across the Great Lakes. The southern periphery of the stronger winds aloft will extend across much of the northern Plains and the Midwest, with 30 kt 500 mb winds as far south as northern KS and MO.

At the surface, a warm front will lift north across northern KS and MO during the day, with 50s F dewpoints spreading north with gusty south winds. As a shortwave disturbance moves into the northern Plains late, a surge of high pressure will push this boundary south as a cold front after 00Z, extending from southwest KS into central MO and IL by 12Z Friday. Scattered strong to severe storms will be most likely along this east-west front, with more isolated activity from western KS into the TX Panhandle along a dryline.

..Central Plains

Storms are expected to develop relatively early, perhaps around 18Z over northeast KS into southeast NE as warm/moistening air from the south interacts with the warm front. Strong heating south of the boundary will result in steep low-level lapse rates, while the increasing theta-e rises near the boundary and beneath cold midlevel temperatures. The cold profiles aloft along with 40 kt effective deep-layer shear will favor hail production, with perhaps isolated very large hail.

As heating peaks during the later afternoon, additional cells are expected extending southwestward into north-central KS. Though dewpoints will only be in the 50s F, slow-moving supercells will be possible, again with very large hail.

With west to northwest winds aloft, all these storms may eventually merge into the evening, propagating southeastward across much of eastern KS into northwest MO. The warm boundary layer, combined with cold downdraft material, will likely support scattered damaging gusts.

..Jewell.. 04/08/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Friday, April 10

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible on Friday over parts of the southern and central Plains eastward into the Ozarks.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 081925

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS…NORTHERN OKLAHOMA…AND TOWARD THE OZARKS

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible on Friday over parts of the southern and central Plains eastward into the Ozarks.

Discussion

On Friday, an upper trough will move from the Great Lakes into the Northeast, with temporary upper ridging over the Plains in advance of a large upper trough moving across the West. At the surface, high pressure will exist over the northern Plains to upper MS Valley, with a cold front roughly from the KS/OK border into central MO, and extending northeastward toward the Lower Great Lakes. This front will become nearly stationary during the day over the Plains, and will return north overnight as warm front across KS/MO.

Beneath the upper ridge, potential will exist for scattered thunderstorms along the frontal zone at various times of the day. Early day storms will be possible from eastern KS into MO and possibly northern OK, as the Thursday night activity persists into Friday morning with the aid of a southwesterly low-level jet and outflows. This activity could pose strong gust potential before weakening midday.

Additional storms will be possible along the east-west front as heating occurs to the south of it (and any outflows). Though the large-scale pattern will not favor significant coverage of severe storms, isolated strong to severe storms may develop as the air mass becomes uncapped. Slow-moving severe storms producing large hail appear most likely across the northern TX to OK Panhandles into southern KS and northwest OK, in closer proximity to the steeper lapse rates aloft. Overall, shear will be marginal, but a stationary storm may briefly show supercell characteristics given the veering winds with height, producing large hail and isolated damaging gusts.

..Jewell.. 04/08/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Saturday, April 11

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080854 SPC AC 080854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

DISCUSSION

Saturday/Day 4 to Monday/Day 6

On Saturday, mid-level southwesterly flow will strengthen over the central U.S., as an upper-level system moves to near the West Coast. A moist airmass will be in place over the southern and central Plains, as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves across the region. Large-scale ascent along with warming surface temperatures will result in scattered thunderstorm development over much of west Texas Saturday afternoon. MLCAPE is expected to peak near 1000 J/kg in some areas, with 0-6 km shear being in the 30 to 40 knot range over much of the southern High Plains. This should be sufficient for a severe threat, with large hail and severe wind gusts possible.

From Saturday night into Sunday, strong moisture advection is forecast over the Great Plains. By Sunday afternoon, moderate instability is expected to be in place over much of this airmass. Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected throughout much of the moist sector during the afternoon and evening. Some model forecasts move a 50 to 60 knot mid-level jet through central and northeast Texas during the afternoon and evening. If this happens, then a substantial severe threat would be possible from parts of central and north Texas into Oklahoma. Severe storms, including supercells with large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat would be possible in areas that destabilize the most.

On Monday, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to remain from the southern Plains extending north-northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Strong to severe thunderstorm development will be possible over much of the instability corridor in the afternoon and evening. The greatest potential for severe storms is forecast from the southern Plains north-northeastward into the lower Missouri Valley and upper Mississippi Valley, where the models develop moderate instability and have 0-6 km shear mostly in the 30 to 40 knot range. Severe storms with large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat will be possible.

Tuesday/Day 7 and Wednesday/Day 8

The western U.S. trough is finally forecast to approach the southern Plains on Tuesday, where a moist and unstable airmass should be in place. Some solutions suggest that a mid-level jet will move into the southern Plains Tuesday afternoon. This would create strong deep-layer shear over parts of the moist sector, suggesting that a substantial severe threat will be possible. Although there is still spatial uncertainty regarding this scenario, current model forecasts would support supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts and some tornadoes.

On Wednesday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move through the central states, with a southwest-to-northeast corridor of moderate instability in place by afternoon from northeast Texas into western Ozarks. This would be favorable for severe storms. However, at this extended range, considerable uncertainty exists concerning severe threat magnitude and spacing.

..Broyles.. 04/08/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Sunday, April 12

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080854 SPC AC 080854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

DISCUSSION

Saturday/Day 4 to Monday/Day 6

On Saturday, mid-level southwesterly flow will strengthen over the central U.S., as an upper-level system moves to near the West Coast. A moist airmass will be in place over the southern and central Plains, as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves across the region. Large-scale ascent along with warming surface temperatures will result in scattered thunderstorm development over much of west Texas Saturday afternoon. MLCAPE is expected to peak near 1000 J/kg in some areas, with 0-6 km shear being in the 30 to 40 knot range over much of the southern High Plains. This should be sufficient for a severe threat, with large hail and severe wind gusts possible.

From Saturday night into Sunday, strong moisture advection is forecast over the Great Plains. By Sunday afternoon, moderate instability is expected to be in place over much of this airmass. Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected throughout much of the moist sector during the afternoon and evening. Some model forecasts move a 50 to 60 knot mid-level jet through central and northeast Texas during the afternoon and evening. If this happens, then a substantial severe threat would be possible from parts of central and north Texas into Oklahoma. Severe storms, including supercells with large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat would be possible in areas that destabilize the most.

On Monday, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to remain from the southern Plains extending north-northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Strong to severe thunderstorm development will be possible over much of the instability corridor in the afternoon and evening. The greatest potential for severe storms is forecast from the southern Plains north-northeastward into the lower Missouri Valley and upper Mississippi Valley, where the models develop moderate instability and have 0-6 km shear mostly in the 30 to 40 knot range. Severe storms with large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat will be possible.

Tuesday/Day 7 and Wednesday/Day 8

The western U.S. trough is finally forecast to approach the southern Plains on Tuesday, where a moist and unstable airmass should be in place. Some solutions suggest that a mid-level jet will move into the southern Plains Tuesday afternoon. This would create strong deep-layer shear over parts of the moist sector, suggesting that a substantial severe threat will be possible. Although there is still spatial uncertainty regarding this scenario, current model forecasts would support supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts and some tornadoes.

On Wednesday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move through the central states, with a southwest-to-northeast corridor of moderate instability in place by afternoon from northeast Texas into western Ozarks. This would be favorable for severe storms. However, at this extended range, considerable uncertainty exists concerning severe threat magnitude and spacing.

..Broyles.. 04/08/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Monday, April 13

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080854 SPC AC 080854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

DISCUSSION

Saturday/Day 4 to Monday/Day 6

On Saturday, mid-level southwesterly flow will strengthen over the central U.S., as an upper-level system moves to near the West Coast. A moist airmass will be in place over the southern and central Plains, as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves across the region. Large-scale ascent along with warming surface temperatures will result in scattered thunderstorm development over much of west Texas Saturday afternoon. MLCAPE is expected to peak near 1000 J/kg in some areas, with 0-6 km shear being in the 30 to 40 knot range over much of the southern High Plains. This should be sufficient for a severe threat, with large hail and severe wind gusts possible.

From Saturday night into Sunday, strong moisture advection is forecast over the Great Plains. By Sunday afternoon, moderate instability is expected to be in place over much of this airmass. Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected throughout much of the moist sector during the afternoon and evening. Some model forecasts move a 50 to 60 knot mid-level jet through central and northeast Texas during the afternoon and evening. If this happens, then a substantial severe threat would be possible from parts of central and north Texas into Oklahoma. Severe storms, including supercells with large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat would be possible in areas that destabilize the most.

On Monday, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to remain from the southern Plains extending north-northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Strong to severe thunderstorm development will be possible over much of the instability corridor in the afternoon and evening. The greatest potential for severe storms is forecast from the southern Plains north-northeastward into the lower Missouri Valley and upper Mississippi Valley, where the models develop moderate instability and have 0-6 km shear mostly in the 30 to 40 knot range. Severe storms with large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat will be possible.

Tuesday/Day 7 and Wednesday/Day 8

The western U.S. trough is finally forecast to approach the southern Plains on Tuesday, where a moist and unstable airmass should be in place. Some solutions suggest that a mid-level jet will move into the southern Plains Tuesday afternoon. This would create strong deep-layer shear over parts of the moist sector, suggesting that a substantial severe threat will be possible. Although there is still spatial uncertainty regarding this scenario, current model forecasts would support supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts and some tornadoes.

On Wednesday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move through the central states, with a southwest-to-northeast corridor of moderate instability in place by afternoon from northeast Texas into western Ozarks. This would be favorable for severe storms. However, at this extended range, considerable uncertainty exists concerning severe threat magnitude and spacing.

..Broyles.. 04/08/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Tuesday, April 14

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080854 SPC AC 080854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

DISCUSSION

Saturday/Day 4 to Monday/Day 6

On Saturday, mid-level southwesterly flow will strengthen over the central U.S., as an upper-level system moves to near the West Coast. A moist airmass will be in place over the southern and central Plains, as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves across the region. Large-scale ascent along with warming surface temperatures will result in scattered thunderstorm development over much of west Texas Saturday afternoon. MLCAPE is expected to peak near 1000 J/kg in some areas, with 0-6 km shear being in the 30 to 40 knot range over much of the southern High Plains. This should be sufficient for a severe threat, with large hail and severe wind gusts possible.

From Saturday night into Sunday, strong moisture advection is forecast over the Great Plains. By Sunday afternoon, moderate instability is expected to be in place over much of this airmass. Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected throughout much of the moist sector during the afternoon and evening. Some model forecasts move a 50 to 60 knot mid-level jet through central and northeast Texas during the afternoon and evening. If this happens, then a substantial severe threat would be possible from parts of central and north Texas into Oklahoma. Severe storms, including supercells with large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat would be possible in areas that destabilize the most.

On Monday, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to remain from the southern Plains extending north-northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Strong to severe thunderstorm development will be possible over much of the instability corridor in the afternoon and evening. The greatest potential for severe storms is forecast from the southern Plains north-northeastward into the lower Missouri Valley and upper Mississippi Valley, where the models develop moderate instability and have 0-6 km shear mostly in the 30 to 40 knot range. Severe storms with large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat will be possible.

Tuesday/Day 7 and Wednesday/Day 8

The western U.S. trough is finally forecast to approach the southern Plains on Tuesday, where a moist and unstable airmass should be in place. Some solutions suggest that a mid-level jet will move into the southern Plains Tuesday afternoon. This would create strong deep-layer shear over parts of the moist sector, suggesting that a substantial severe threat will be possible. Although there is still spatial uncertainty regarding this scenario, current model forecasts would support supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts and some tornadoes.

On Wednesday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move through the central states, with a southwest-to-northeast corridor of moderate instability in place by afternoon from northeast Texas into western Ozarks. This would be favorable for severe storms. However, at this extended range, considerable uncertainty exists concerning severe threat magnitude and spacing.

..Broyles.. 04/08/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Wednesday, April 15

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080854 SPC AC 080854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

DISCUSSION

Saturday/Day 4 to Monday/Day 6

On Saturday, mid-level southwesterly flow will strengthen over the central U.S., as an upper-level system moves to near the West Coast. A moist airmass will be in place over the southern and central Plains, as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves across the region. Large-scale ascent along with warming surface temperatures will result in scattered thunderstorm development over much of west Texas Saturday afternoon. MLCAPE is expected to peak near 1000 J/kg in some areas, with 0-6 km shear being in the 30 to 40 knot range over much of the southern High Plains. This should be sufficient for a severe threat, with large hail and severe wind gusts possible.

From Saturday night into Sunday, strong moisture advection is forecast over the Great Plains. By Sunday afternoon, moderate instability is expected to be in place over much of this airmass. Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected throughout much of the moist sector during the afternoon and evening. Some model forecasts move a 50 to 60 knot mid-level jet through central and northeast Texas during the afternoon and evening. If this happens, then a substantial severe threat would be possible from parts of central and north Texas into Oklahoma. Severe storms, including supercells with large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat would be possible in areas that destabilize the most.

On Monday, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to remain from the southern Plains extending north-northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Strong to severe thunderstorm development will be possible over much of the instability corridor in the afternoon and evening. The greatest potential for severe storms is forecast from the southern Plains north-northeastward into the lower Missouri Valley and upper Mississippi Valley, where the models develop moderate instability and have 0-6 km shear mostly in the 30 to 40 knot range. Severe storms with large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat will be possible.

Tuesday/Day 7 and Wednesday/Day 8

The western U.S. trough is finally forecast to approach the southern Plains on Tuesday, where a moist and unstable airmass should be in place. Some solutions suggest that a mid-level jet will move into the southern Plains Tuesday afternoon. This would create strong deep-layer shear over parts of the moist sector, suggesting that a substantial severe threat will be possible. Although there is still spatial uncertainty regarding this scenario, current model forecasts would support supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts and some tornadoes.

On Wednesday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move through the central states, with a southwest-to-northeast corridor of moderate instability in place by afternoon from northeast Texas into western Ozarks. This would be favorable for severe storms. However, at this extended range, considerable uncertainty exists concerning severe threat magnitude and spacing.

..Broyles.. 04/08/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, April 8

TORNADO: low

HAIL: low

WIND: low

Thursday, April 9

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Friday, April 10

ANY SEVERE: 5%

Saturday, April 11

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Sunday, April 12

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Monday, April 13

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Tuesday, April 14

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Wednesday, April 15

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

---

Your Severe Outlook

---

---

About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.

• tornado hq - live severe weather warnings
• cyclocane - hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones
• tornado solitaire - play cards while you monitor the US severe weather threat
• tertremo - live view of earthquakes around the world
• earthquake solitaire - get live earthquake updates as you play your favorite card game