Severe Weather Outlook
Hayley here - Do you want to see severe weather in your calendar?
* it's like an add-on for your digital calendar NOT a paper calendar
National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, October 4
Outlook Summary
A few rotating thunderstorms are possible today across the coastal Florida Panhandle.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 041243
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2026
Valid 041300Z - 051200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
### SUMMARY
A few rotating thunderstorms are possible today across the coastal Florida Panhandle.
Florida Panhandle
A stalled/slow-southeastward-moving surface front will reside across the Southeast and Deep South today, with a very moist airmass persisting along and to its south, featuring Precipitable Water values in excess of 2 inches. Scattered showers/thunderstorms are common early today south of the front, including across the northern half of the Gulf. There are some guidance indications, most notably recent NAM runs, that weak offshore surface low development may occur today, with a related developing enhancement to the low-level flow/SRH. Should this trend materialize, showers/thunderstorms will have the potential to exhibit brief, transient low-level circulations, mainly near the coast, with a related waterspout/brief tornado potential.
..Guyer/Dean.. 10/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Monday, October 5
Outlook Summary
Severe storms are unlikely across the USA on Monday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 040521
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe storms are unlikely across the USA on Monday.
Synopsis
An upper low will continue to deepen as it moves eastward across Quebec on Monday, with the speed max at the base of the trough sweeping across the Northeast. Behind this trough, northwest flow will persist from the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes, with a weak midlevel trough moving across the Great Basin.
At the surface, a large area of high pressure will provide stable conditions to much of the central and eastern States, with the more substantial low-level moisture and instability relegated to the Gulf Coast area. Scattered thunderstorms will thus be possible along the northern Gulf Coast, and across much of Florida, though severe storms are unlikely.
Elsewhere, sporadic lightning flashes may occur over parts of southern CO, and into parts of NV where cool air aloft will steepen lapse rates. Instability will be weak, as will low-level wind fields. A few strong gusts cannot be ruled out due to the deeply mixed boundary layer.
..Jewell.. 10/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Tuesday, October 6
Outlook Summary
Severe storms are unlikely on Tuesday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 040649
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe storms are unlikely on Tuesday.
Synopsis
A deep upper trough will quickly move out of eastern Quebec and New England on Tuesday, with a secondary lower-amplitude trough diving southeast across Ontario and Upper Great Lakes. This northwest flow regime will generally maintain high pressure over much of the central and eastern CONUS, with northeast surface winds near the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts. As such, available moisture and instability will remain largely offshore, except over FL where afternoon thunderstorms are possible. Severe storms are unlikely due to the weak shear/lapse rate environment.
Elsewhere, scattered showers and thunderstorms may affect the eastern Great Basin into western CO, as a weak midlevel wave moves over the area with cool temperatures aloft. Severe storms are unlikely given weak instability and shear.
..Jewell.. 10/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Wednesday, October 7
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, October 7 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, October 8 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, October 9 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, October 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, October 11 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040900 SPC AC 040900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
For Wed/D4 through about Fri/D6, severe chances will be minimal across the CONUS as a broad upper trough affects the Great Lakes into the Northeast, with high pressure keeping the higher dewpoints primarily offshore over the Gulf of America.
For late Fri/D6 into Sun/D8, predictability becomes low as models indicate a possible tropical cyclone over parts of the southwestern Gulf of America (NHC 30% change of cyclone formation). This, along with a possible weak shortwave trough developing over TX/northern Gulf Coast, could result in a rapid northward surge of tropical moisture and enhanced shear. This area will be monitored in upcoming outlooks as the situation evolves.
..Jewell.. 10/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, October 8
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, October 7 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, October 8 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, October 9 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, October 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, October 11 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040900 SPC AC 040900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
For Wed/D4 through about Fri/D6, severe chances will be minimal across the CONUS as a broad upper trough affects the Great Lakes into the Northeast, with high pressure keeping the higher dewpoints primarily offshore over the Gulf of America.
For late Fri/D6 into Sun/D8, predictability becomes low as models indicate a possible tropical cyclone over parts of the southwestern Gulf of America (NHC 30% change of cyclone formation). This, along with a possible weak shortwave trough developing over TX/northern Gulf Coast, could result in a rapid northward surge of tropical moisture and enhanced shear. This area will be monitored in upcoming outlooks as the situation evolves.
..Jewell.. 10/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, October 9
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, October 7 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, October 8 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, October 9 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, October 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, October 11 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040900 SPC AC 040900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
For Wed/D4 through about Fri/D6, severe chances will be minimal across the CONUS as a broad upper trough affects the Great Lakes into the Northeast, with high pressure keeping the higher dewpoints primarily offshore over the Gulf of America.
For late Fri/D6 into Sun/D8, predictability becomes low as models indicate a possible tropical cyclone over parts of the southwestern Gulf of America (NHC 30% change of cyclone formation). This, along with a possible weak shortwave trough developing over TX/northern Gulf Coast, could result in a rapid northward surge of tropical moisture and enhanced shear. This area will be monitored in upcoming outlooks as the situation evolves.
..Jewell.. 10/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, October 10
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, October 7 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, October 8 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, October 9 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, October 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, October 11 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040900 SPC AC 040900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
For Wed/D4 through about Fri/D6, severe chances will be minimal across the CONUS as a broad upper trough affects the Great Lakes into the Northeast, with high pressure keeping the higher dewpoints primarily offshore over the Gulf of America.
For late Fri/D6 into Sun/D8, predictability becomes low as models indicate a possible tropical cyclone over parts of the southwestern Gulf of America (NHC 30% change of cyclone formation). This, along with a possible weak shortwave trough developing over TX/northern Gulf Coast, could result in a rapid northward surge of tropical moisture and enhanced shear. This area will be monitored in upcoming outlooks as the situation evolves.
..Jewell.. 10/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, October 11
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, October 7 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, October 8 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, October 9 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, October 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, October 11 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040900 SPC AC 040900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
For Wed/D4 through about Fri/D6, severe chances will be minimal across the CONUS as a broad upper trough affects the Great Lakes into the Northeast, with high pressure keeping the higher dewpoints primarily offshore over the Gulf of America.
For late Fri/D6 into Sun/D8, predictability becomes low as models indicate a possible tropical cyclone over parts of the southwestern Gulf of America (NHC 30% change of cyclone formation). This, along with a possible weak shortwave trough developing over TX/northern Gulf Coast, could result in a rapid northward surge of tropical moisture and enhanced shear. This area will be monitored in upcoming outlooks as the situation evolves.
..Jewell.. 10/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, October 4
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Monday, October 5
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, October 6
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Wednesday, October 7
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, October 8
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, October 9
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, October 10
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, October 11
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Your Severe Outlook
Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.
Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.
Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.
About Severe Weather Outlook . com
SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.
- tornado hq - live severe weather warnings
- cyclocane - hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones
- tornado solitaire - play cards while you monitor the US severe weather threat
- tertremo - live view of earthquakes around the world
- earthquake solitaire - get live earthquake updates as you play your favorite card game