Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, February 3
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 040045
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 PM CST Tue Feb 03 2026
Valid 040100Z - 041200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States.
Synopsis
A surface cold front is evident in 00 UTC surface observations extending from Middle TN southwestward to the TX Coastal Plain with thunderstorms ongoing across portions of southeast TX into western LA. This activity is expected to spread southeastward into the northwestern Gulf through 12 UTC in tandem with the surface front. A recent 00 UTC sounding from CRP sampled around 500 J/kg SBCAPE, but the onset of nocturnal cooling should begin to modulate buoyancy heading into the late evening/overnight hours. While forcing along the front will continue to support convection, thunderstorm intensity will likely continue to wane and limit the potential for organized convection given the deteriorating thermodynamic conditions.
..Moore.. 02/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Wednesday, February 4
Outlook Summary
Severe storms are not expected on Wednesday or Wednesday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 031631
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CST Tue Feb 03 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe storms are not expected on Wednesday or Wednesday night.
Discussion
A highly amplified upper pattern is anticipated Wednesday with a longwave trough over the East and an anticyclone/ridge in the West. A positive-tilt shortwave impulse digging through the basal portion of the trough will yield weak cyclogenesis over the Southeast. A surface cold front will trail southwestward from this cyclone into the northwest Gulf on Wednesday morning. A combination of 50s boundary-layer dew points and weak mid-level lapse rates should support only scant surface to slightly elevated buoyancy near the front. Low thunder probabilities are apparent during the morning to afternoon, along a portion of the Gulf Coast from far southeast LA to the FL Panhandle. The paucity of instability and modest lower-level shear should minimize severe-storm potential.
..Grams.. 02/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Thursday, February 5
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday or Thursday night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 031850
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 PM CST Tue Feb 03 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday or Thursday night.
Discussion
Conditions will be too dry/stable for lightning-producing convection across the CONUS through the period. Low-topped convection may accompany the trailing portion of a cold front pushing through central to south FL on Thursday morning into early afternoon. A dearth of instability is expected to preclude thunder potential over the peninsula, with any thunderstorm development limited to the Gulf Stream east of the Southeast Atlantic Coast.
..Grams.. 02/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Friday, February 6
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, February 6 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, February 7 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, February 8 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, February 9 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, February 10 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030939 SPC AC 030939
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CST Tue Feb 03 2026
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
On the backside of a broad large-scale trough over the East, dry, offshore flow will persist across much of the CONUS through at least Days 5-6/Saturday-Sunday. As a result, thunderstorm potential will be low during this time frame. Thereafter, medium-range guidance depicts a low-latitude midlevel trough/low moving eastward across the Southwest/northern Mexico and eventually into the southern Plains by Days 7-8/Monday-Tuesday. However, current indications are that surface high pressure encompassing the eastern half of the CONUS will limit boundary-layer moisture return and overall severe potential.
..Weinman.. 02/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, February 7
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, February 6 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, February 7 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, February 8 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, February 9 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, February 10 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030939 SPC AC 030939
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CST Tue Feb 03 2026
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
On the backside of a broad large-scale trough over the East, dry, offshore flow will persist across much of the CONUS through at least Days 5-6/Saturday-Sunday. As a result, thunderstorm potential will be low during this time frame. Thereafter, medium-range guidance depicts a low-latitude midlevel trough/low moving eastward across the Southwest/northern Mexico and eventually into the southern Plains by Days 7-8/Monday-Tuesday. However, current indications are that surface high pressure encompassing the eastern half of the CONUS will limit boundary-layer moisture return and overall severe potential.
..Weinman.. 02/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, February 8
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, February 6 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, February 7 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, February 8 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, February 9 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, February 10 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030939 SPC AC 030939
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CST Tue Feb 03 2026
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
On the backside of a broad large-scale trough over the East, dry, offshore flow will persist across much of the CONUS through at least Days 5-6/Saturday-Sunday. As a result, thunderstorm potential will be low during this time frame. Thereafter, medium-range guidance depicts a low-latitude midlevel trough/low moving eastward across the Southwest/northern Mexico and eventually into the southern Plains by Days 7-8/Monday-Tuesday. However, current indications are that surface high pressure encompassing the eastern half of the CONUS will limit boundary-layer moisture return and overall severe potential.
..Weinman.. 02/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, February 9
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, February 6 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, February 7 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, February 8 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, February 9 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, February 10 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030939 SPC AC 030939
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CST Tue Feb 03 2026
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
On the backside of a broad large-scale trough over the East, dry, offshore flow will persist across much of the CONUS through at least Days 5-6/Saturday-Sunday. As a result, thunderstorm potential will be low during this time frame. Thereafter, medium-range guidance depicts a low-latitude midlevel trough/low moving eastward across the Southwest/northern Mexico and eventually into the southern Plains by Days 7-8/Monday-Tuesday. However, current indications are that surface high pressure encompassing the eastern half of the CONUS will limit boundary-layer moisture return and overall severe potential.
..Weinman.. 02/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, February 10
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, February 6 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, February 7 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, February 8 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, February 9 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, February 10 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030939 SPC AC 030939
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CST Tue Feb 03 2026
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
On the backside of a broad large-scale trough over the East, dry, offshore flow will persist across much of the CONUS through at least Days 5-6/Saturday-Sunday. As a result, thunderstorm potential will be low during this time frame. Thereafter, medium-range guidance depicts a low-latitude midlevel trough/low moving eastward across the Southwest/northern Mexico and eventually into the southern Plains by Days 7-8/Monday-Tuesday. However, current indications are that surface high pressure encompassing the eastern half of the CONUS will limit boundary-layer moisture return and overall severe potential.
..Weinman.. 02/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, February 3
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Wednesday, February 4
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Thursday, February 5
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Friday, February 6
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, February 7
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, February 8
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, February 9
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, February 10
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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