Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, July 2
Outlook Summary
Strong to severe storms will be possible from the northern Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes regions, as well as across the southern Appalachians on Thursday. Isolated strong to severe storms may also occur in the Tennessee Valley, central High Plains, and parts of the Northeast.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 30%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 020555
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
### THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST AND OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
### SUMMARY
Strong to severe storms will be possible from the northern Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes regions, as well as across the southern Appalachians on Thursday. Isolated strong to severe storms may also occur in the Tennessee Valley, central High Plains, and parts of the Northeast.
Synopsis
The upper level pattern across the US will be characterized by troughing across the western US with a high amplitude ridge across the eastern US. Between these features, several shortwave troughs will rotate through the flow across the central/northern Plains into the Midwest. A surface low will be located across eastern Montana into the western Dakotas, with a surface boundary extending from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest.
Northern High Plains into the Great Lakes and Midwest
Early morning convection is likely across some portion of North Dakota in association with a vort max moving out of Montana. The evolution of this activity will likely have implications on the exact placement of the surface boundary by this afternoon across the Dakotas. Afternoon thunderstorm development is expected near the surface low and in the vicinity of the surface boundary/residual outflow across the Dakotas by the afternoon. Coverage should increase as a shortwave moves out of Montana into the afternoon/evening with increasing forcing for ascent. Across the northern High Plains, strong daytime heating amid steep low to mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to strong instability. This in combination with deep-layer shear around 40-45 kts will support initial supercells capable of large to very large hail and damaging wind. Through time, boundary parallel shear and large dew point spreads promoting outflow dominate storms will likely support one or more clusters/bowing segments moving south and east with time, resulting in an increase in the damaging wind threat and potential for a few significant gust 75+ mph.
Southern Appalachians into the Tennessee Valley
A very moist and unstable air mass is expected to be in place across the Southern Appalachians into the Tennessee Valley this afternoon. Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across the high terrain, with tendency to cluster along outflows. Consensus is highest across the Appalachians into the Tennessee Valley for a more focused corridor of damaging wind potential.
Central High Plains
Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop within the lee trough across the central High Plains this afternoon. Moderate instability overlapping with around 25-30 kts of deep-layer shear will support potential for a mix of supercells and multi-cell clusters. Steep low- to mid-level lapse rates and large temperature/dew point spreads will support potential for severe gusts. Initial supercells will pose potential for large hail.
Northeast… Northeasterly flow within the northern periphery of the eastern ridge will allow for thunderstorm activity to track southward out of Quebec/Ontario across portions of the Northeast this afternoon. The presence of moderate to strong instability and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear will be supportive of organized storm modes with the predominant hazard being damaging winds. Higher wind probabilities and a level 2/Slight Risk may be needed with additional outlook updates if a more favorable corridor of wind potential become clearer.
..Thornton/Chalmers.. 07/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Friday, July 3
Outlook Summary
Isolated to scattered severe storms are possible from the northern/central Plains into the Midwest, Tennessee Valley, and Mid-Atlantic on Friday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 020600
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE BLACK HILLS VICINITY INTO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND LOWER GREAT LAKES
### SUMMARY
Isolated to scattered severe storms are possible from the northern/central Plains into the Midwest, Tennessee Valley, and Mid-Atlantic on Friday.
Synopsis
Upper-level ridging will begin to flatten and spread westward on Friday. Modest southwesterly flow aloft will continue across much of the Rockies. In the East, stronger cyclonic flow aloft will continue in New England and the northern Mid-Atlantic. A surface low will deepen in parts of the central High Plains. A quasi-stationary/outflow composite boundary will be situated within the central/northern Plains into the Lower Great Lakes region.
Black Hills vicinity into Mid-Missouri/Mississippi Valleys
Forecast uncertainty remains with respect to how convection evolves Thursday night into early Friday morning. Some convection could linger in parts of South Dakota and possibly Nebraska. At the very least, portions of the central/northern Plains will be impacted by outflow from earlier convection. The position of the outflow will determine where the greater severe threat develops during the afternoon. Modest southwesterly flow aloft will drive the development of the lee trough that will advect upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints into the High Plains. A subtle shortwave trough depicted in most guidance will initiate convection within the higher terrain of eastern Montana/Wyoming and the Black Hills. Initial supercells will be capable of large to very large hail and severe winds. Additional convection is also possible farther southeast along the outflow boundary where a weak surface low may enhance low-level lift of a weakly capped airmass. A similar threat for large/very large hail and severe winds would accompany this activity. Should the activity farther east remain discrete into early evening, a marginally greater tornado risk would exist. Between these two zones of convection, upscale growth will allow one or more MCS to develop and track along the boundary. The lead MCS would have greater potential for severe winds (some 75+ mph). The low-level jet response during the evening will not be overly strong, but it should be enough to help convection to continue into parts of Iowa later in the evening.
Northern Illinois into northwest Ohio
With an MCV and related convection likely moving through the Great Lakes region to the north, an outflow/theta-e boundary will settle somewhere within these areas. Model guidance suggests that heating along this boundary will promote scattered storm development. Modest enhancement to deep-layer shear due to the MCV may allow for modest organization of a cluster/linear segment that travels east along the boundary. Wind probabilities have been increased to account for this potential.
Mid-Atlantic
Model spread still exists as to where the greatest storm coverage will exist during the afternoon. Temperatures nearing 100 F and 60s F dewpoints will support strong destabilization across the region. The degree of temperature-dewpoint spreads will promote efficient downdraft production. Effective shear will be greatest in the northern Mid-Atlantic where around 30 kt of flow at 500 mb will exist. This should promote clusters/linear segments capable of wind damage. Towards the Blue Ridge, storm coverage is much less certain given the very weak forcing. Damaging downbursts are still possible with storms that can develop. Model trends will continue to be monitored for any increase in expected storm coverage.
Tennessee Valley into Ohio Valley
Strong heating of a mid/upper 60s F dewpoint airmass will promote 4000+ J/kg MLCAPE by the afternoon. Weak shear will limit storm organization, but subtle shortwave troughs moving around the upper anticyclone could allow for locally greater storm coverage/clustering. Damaging downburst winds are the expected hazard.
Northern Plains into Upper Midwest
Forecast uncertainty remains medium to high in terms of how much destabilization will occur within these areas. Guidance generally suggests convection/cloud cover will exist during the morning and potentially parts of the afternoon. A broad marginal remains in place for damaging winds and isolated large hail potential should enough destabilization occur.
..Wendt.. 07/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Saturday, July 4
Outlook Summary
Isolated to scattered storms will be possible from the central Plains into the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic this Fourth of July (Saturday). The greatest concentration of strong to severe storms will be within portions of the Mid-Atlantic.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 020729
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
### SUMMARY
Isolated to scattered storms will be possible from the central Plains into the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic this Fourth of July (Saturday). The greatest concentration of strong to severe storms will be within portions of the Mid-Atlantic.
Mid-Atlantic
Strong heating of a very moist airmass will again support 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE by the afternoon. Despite weak shear, inverted-v low-level profiles will support strong to severe downburst winds that could produce wind damage. Given the presence of a cold front and surface trough as well as marginally greater forcing for ascent than Friday, storm coverage will be greater. A Slight Risk has been added where a few organizing clusters of storms may occur.
Lower Great Lakes Vicinity
While there is still uncertainty, a shortwave trough/MCV is expected to move through Wisconsin/Minnesota. Convection may be ongoing in the morning, but some clearing/destabilization will be possible by the afternoon. Should this occur, a few strong to severe storms could produce wind damage and perhaps marginal hail. A tornado would also be possible given the backed surface winds in the vicinity of a weak surface low.
Central High Plains
Moist air will remain behind an outflow/front composite boundary in the central Plains. This should promote around 40-45 kts of effective shear across the Front Range. Large hail and severe winds would be possible with supercells that develop.
Central Plains into Ohio Valley
A broad area of 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE will develop south of the quasi-stationary boundary. Damaging wind gusts would be the likely concern with storms that develop. A greater wind threat could materialize if any clusters/MCS can develop.
..Wendt.. 07/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Sunday, July 5
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, July 5 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Monday, July 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, July 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, July 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, July 9 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020855 SPC AC 020855
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
DISCUSSION
Model trends have been for the upper ridge to amplify less in the West than in previous cycles. This will allow southwesterly mid-level winds to persist longer in the Intermountain region. In the East, a shortwave trough will approach the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Sunday before cyclonic flow remains in the regions through the middle of the following week. Upper ridging will stay within the central CONUS before flattening as a couple of shortwave troughs move over the northern tier states. Moderate to strong buoyancy is expected to remain south a stalled surface boundary in the Southeast. The cyclonic flow in the West will eventually bring moisture farther northwest into the High Plains. While predictability is generally low, at least localized severe potential will exist near the surface boundaries and any MCVs that may be present. High Plains thunderstorms are also possible. Where greater shear/lift exists with the western shortwave troughs, severe potential could increase.
Mid-Atlantic
With the approach of modest mid-level height falls on Sunday, storm coverage will likely increase from Saturday both along the stalled surface front and within the Blue Ridge. Given a similar environment to Saturday, a 15% severe risk was added. Damaging wind gusts are likely the primary hazard.
..Wendt.. 07/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, July 6
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, July 5 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Monday, July 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, July 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, July 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, July 9 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020855 SPC AC 020855
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
DISCUSSION
Model trends have been for the upper ridge to amplify less in the West than in previous cycles. This will allow southwesterly mid-level winds to persist longer in the Intermountain region. In the East, a shortwave trough will approach the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Sunday before cyclonic flow remains in the regions through the middle of the following week. Upper ridging will stay within the central CONUS before flattening as a couple of shortwave troughs move over the northern tier states. Moderate to strong buoyancy is expected to remain south a stalled surface boundary in the Southeast. The cyclonic flow in the West will eventually bring moisture farther northwest into the High Plains. While predictability is generally low, at least localized severe potential will exist near the surface boundaries and any MCVs that may be present. High Plains thunderstorms are also possible. Where greater shear/lift exists with the western shortwave troughs, severe potential could increase.
Mid-Atlantic
With the approach of modest mid-level height falls on Sunday, storm coverage will likely increase from Saturday both along the stalled surface front and within the Blue Ridge. Given a similar environment to Saturday, a 15% severe risk was added. Damaging wind gusts are likely the primary hazard.
..Wendt.. 07/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, July 7
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, July 5 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Monday, July 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, July 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, July 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, July 9 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020855 SPC AC 020855
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
DISCUSSION
Model trends have been for the upper ridge to amplify less in the West than in previous cycles. This will allow southwesterly mid-level winds to persist longer in the Intermountain region. In the East, a shortwave trough will approach the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Sunday before cyclonic flow remains in the regions through the middle of the following week. Upper ridging will stay within the central CONUS before flattening as a couple of shortwave troughs move over the northern tier states. Moderate to strong buoyancy is expected to remain south a stalled surface boundary in the Southeast. The cyclonic flow in the West will eventually bring moisture farther northwest into the High Plains. While predictability is generally low, at least localized severe potential will exist near the surface boundaries and any MCVs that may be present. High Plains thunderstorms are also possible. Where greater shear/lift exists with the western shortwave troughs, severe potential could increase.
Mid-Atlantic
With the approach of modest mid-level height falls on Sunday, storm coverage will likely increase from Saturday both along the stalled surface front and within the Blue Ridge. Given a similar environment to Saturday, a 15% severe risk was added. Damaging wind gusts are likely the primary hazard.
..Wendt.. 07/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, July 8
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, July 5 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Monday, July 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, July 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, July 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, July 9 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020855 SPC AC 020855
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
DISCUSSION
Model trends have been for the upper ridge to amplify less in the West than in previous cycles. This will allow southwesterly mid-level winds to persist longer in the Intermountain region. In the East, a shortwave trough will approach the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Sunday before cyclonic flow remains in the regions through the middle of the following week. Upper ridging will stay within the central CONUS before flattening as a couple of shortwave troughs move over the northern tier states. Moderate to strong buoyancy is expected to remain south a stalled surface boundary in the Southeast. The cyclonic flow in the West will eventually bring moisture farther northwest into the High Plains. While predictability is generally low, at least localized severe potential will exist near the surface boundaries and any MCVs that may be present. High Plains thunderstorms are also possible. Where greater shear/lift exists with the western shortwave troughs, severe potential could increase.
Mid-Atlantic
With the approach of modest mid-level height falls on Sunday, storm coverage will likely increase from Saturday both along the stalled surface front and within the Blue Ridge. Given a similar environment to Saturday, a 15% severe risk was added. Damaging wind gusts are likely the primary hazard.
..Wendt.. 07/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, July 9
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, July 5 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Monday, July 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, July 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, July 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, July 9 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020855 SPC AC 020855
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
DISCUSSION
Model trends have been for the upper ridge to amplify less in the West than in previous cycles. This will allow southwesterly mid-level winds to persist longer in the Intermountain region. In the East, a shortwave trough will approach the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Sunday before cyclonic flow remains in the regions through the middle of the following week. Upper ridging will stay within the central CONUS before flattening as a couple of shortwave troughs move over the northern tier states. Moderate to strong buoyancy is expected to remain south a stalled surface boundary in the Southeast. The cyclonic flow in the West will eventually bring moisture farther northwest into the High Plains. While predictability is generally low, at least localized severe potential will exist near the surface boundaries and any MCVs that may be present. High Plains thunderstorms are also possible. Where greater shear/lift exists with the western shortwave troughs, severe potential could increase.
Mid-Atlantic
With the approach of modest mid-level height falls on Sunday, storm coverage will likely increase from Saturday both along the stalled surface front and within the Blue Ridge. Given a similar environment to Saturday, a 15% severe risk was added. Damaging wind gusts are likely the primary hazard.
..Wendt.. 07/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, July 2
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 30%
- Friday, July 3
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Saturday, July 4
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Sunday, July 5
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Monday, July 6
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, July 7
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, July 8
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, July 9
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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