Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Saturday, May 2

Outlook Summary

Strong to severe storms are possible across southern Georgia into northern/central Florida this morning into the early evening.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 020527

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN GEORGIA…EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA

### SUMMARY

Strong to severe storms are possible across southern Georgia into northern/central Florida this morning into the early evening.

Synopsis

An upper-level trough will bring enhanced west-southwesterly flow aloft across the southeast into the Gulf Coast Saturday. A cold front extending across the northern Florida Peninsula into the Gulf will shift south and east through the afternoon, as a focus of severe thunderstorm development. Thunderstorm activity is expected at the beginning of the period, some of which perhaps may be strong.

Southern Georgia into central Florida

Thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing at the start of the period early Saturday morning across the Gulf into the Florida Panhandle and southern Georgia. A few stronger transient supercells will be possible, mainly offshore south of the Florida coast where better instability will overlap increasing upper-level flow.

Thunderstorm activity will increase in coverage inland and across southern Georgia into the eastern Florida Panhandle and northern Florida Peninsula through the morning into the afternoon. Moderately unstable and strongly sheared profiles across the region will support potential for damaging winds and large hail, especially with embedded supercells. Given storm motions parallel to the southwest to northeast oriented cold front, supercells will likely struggle to remain discrete. As the low-level jet becomes displaced to the north by late morning into the afternoon, mode may becoming increasingly more clustered/linear. This may reduce the hail potential through time.

Before the low-level jet shifts northward, risk for a tornado will be possible across the northern peninsula near the front. There is a narrow zone in north Florida where marginally stronger low-level shear and boundary-layer destabilization may favorably align mid/late morning for a higher tornado risk. Overall, confidence is low in favorable overlap, with potential largely occurring outside of peak daytime heating and with the low-level jet beginning to shift northward. As mentioned, there is also concern about storm motions and lack of more discrete supercells. This leads to too much uncertainty in introducing higher tornado probabilities at this time.

A Slight Risk was maintained across southern Georgia into the eastern Florida Panhandle and northern/central Florida for the main threats of damaging wind and large hail.

..Thornton/Lyons.. 05/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Sunday, May 3

Outlook Summary

A few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of northern/central Missouri and central Illinois on Sunday.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 020501

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS

### SUMMARY

A few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of northern/central Missouri and central Illinois on Sunday.

Lower MO/Mid-MS Valleys

Moderate deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the region as a series of shortwave impulses migrate through an upper trough oriented over the Midwest and eastern U.S. Temperatures aloft will be quite cold (around -20 C at 500 mb), resulting in steep midlevel lapse rates across the Mid-MS Valley region. At the surface, boundary layer moisture will remain limited in the wake of a prior cold frontal passage, resulting in Gulf moisture remaining well offshore. Most guidance suggests dewpoints in the 50s are possible along a corridor ahead of a weak surface front. While low-level moisture will be limited, steep midlevel lapse rates will foster 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Model guidance remains unclear with regard to convective initiation, but heating into the 70s will allow for an uncapped environment. While deep-layer flow will mostly remain unidirectional, speed shear will support supercell wind profiles with 35+ effective shear magnitudes and elongated hodographs.

While overall storm coverage may remain low, and the risk is conditional, if storms develop, isolated large hail and locally strong gusts will be possible during the afternoon and evening.

..Leitman.. 05/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Monday, May 4

Outlook Summary

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Midwest late Monday afternoon into Monday night.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 020626

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST

### SUMMARY

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Midwest late Monday afternoon into Monday night.

Eastern KS to OH

A deepening upper trough will develop southward into the Upper Midwest on Monday/Monday night. Stronger height falls will remain confined to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity, with more modest height falls into the Mid-MS Valley near/after 00z. At the surface, low pressure is forecast to move across Ontario and Quebec, while a trailing cold front develops southward across the Upper MS Valley during the day, and becomes oriented from southern Lower MI to eastern KS by early Tuesday. Gulf moisture return will remain limited, with generally 50s to near 60 F dewpoints expected in a narrow corridor ahead of the cold front. Cool temperatures aloft will support steep lapse rates across the region and MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg is forecast during the afternoon into the nighttime hours from KS into portions of the Mid-MS Valley and eastward into IN/OH/extreme southern Lower MI.

Capping and weak forcing for ascent may limit thunderstorm development across the warm sector through peak heating. However, as a southwesterly low-level jet increases around/after 00z, modest height falls overspread the region, and the surface cold front develops southward toward the corridor of modest boundary layer moisture, isolated to scattered thunderstorms may initiate. Effective shear around 35+ kt will aid in organized storm structures, and isolated large hail and locally strong gusts are possible.

..Leitman.. 05/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, May 5

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020755 SPC AC 020755

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-5/Tue-Wed – Southeast OK/ArkLaTex to Lower MS/TN Valleys

Southwesterly deep-layer flow will increase from the southern Rockies to the Mid-South on Day 4/Tuesday as a southern stream shortwave trough over the Southwest merges with an upper trough over the Plains/Upper Midwest. At the surface, low pressure will develop over the southern Plains and slowly progress east in AR as a cold front develops southeast across OK/AR and the Lower OH Valley. Ahead of the front, rich Gulf moisture will return northward, and 60s to near 70 F dewpoints are forecast by Tuesday afternoon/evening across southeast OK and the ArkLaTex. Timing of thunderstorm development is a bit uncertain as shortwave ridging may overspread the southern Plains vicinity through afternoon. However, forcing for ascent should increase with the approach of the surface front and as a low-level jet increasing Tuesday evening. Moderate instability and strong vertical shear should support severe thunderstorm activity near the cold front from late afternoon into Tuesday night.

On Day 5/Wednesday, the Plains upper trough will migrate east, extending from the Upper Great Lakes to the Lower MS Valley by early Thursday. The surface cold front will extend from the OH Valley into north/central TX Wednesday morning and slowly progress southeast through the period. Gulf moisture will return north and east across the southern U.S. ahead of the front. While deep-layer flow will largely be parallel to the surface front, moist and unstable airmass ahead of the front should support some risk for severe thunderstorms.

Days 6-8/Thu-Sat

A deepening surface low will develop northward across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Thursday as a surface cold front continues to shift east across much of the eastern U.S. While a moist airmass will be in place across parts of the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic, it is uncertain how much destabilization will occur due to possibly widespread thunderstorm activity and cloud cover (particularly from the Mid-Atlantic northward). Large-scale ascent will become increasingly displaced to the north across the Southeast, and convection may tend to be anafrontal. Trends will be monitored and severe probabilities could become necessary for parts of the eastern U.S. on Thursday in later outlooks.

Severe potential will be limited on Friday as the prior cold frontal passages clears out Gulf moisture and surface high pressure envelops much of the eastern half of the U.S. Weak upper troughing could overspread the Rockies and High Plains by the end of the period, allowing for Gulf moisture return across the Plains and an increase in thunderstorm potential.

..Leitman.. 05/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, May 6

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020755 SPC AC 020755

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-5/Tue-Wed – Southeast OK/ArkLaTex to Lower MS/TN Valleys

Southwesterly deep-layer flow will increase from the southern Rockies to the Mid-South on Day 4/Tuesday as a southern stream shortwave trough over the Southwest merges with an upper trough over the Plains/Upper Midwest. At the surface, low pressure will develop over the southern Plains and slowly progress east in AR as a cold front develops southeast across OK/AR and the Lower OH Valley. Ahead of the front, rich Gulf moisture will return northward, and 60s to near 70 F dewpoints are forecast by Tuesday afternoon/evening across southeast OK and the ArkLaTex. Timing of thunderstorm development is a bit uncertain as shortwave ridging may overspread the southern Plains vicinity through afternoon. However, forcing for ascent should increase with the approach of the surface front and as a low-level jet increasing Tuesday evening. Moderate instability and strong vertical shear should support severe thunderstorm activity near the cold front from late afternoon into Tuesday night.

On Day 5/Wednesday, the Plains upper trough will migrate east, extending from the Upper Great Lakes to the Lower MS Valley by early Thursday. The surface cold front will extend from the OH Valley into north/central TX Wednesday morning and slowly progress southeast through the period. Gulf moisture will return north and east across the southern U.S. ahead of the front. While deep-layer flow will largely be parallel to the surface front, moist and unstable airmass ahead of the front should support some risk for severe thunderstorms.

Days 6-8/Thu-Sat

A deepening surface low will develop northward across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Thursday as a surface cold front continues to shift east across much of the eastern U.S. While a moist airmass will be in place across parts of the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic, it is uncertain how much destabilization will occur due to possibly widespread thunderstorm activity and cloud cover (particularly from the Mid-Atlantic northward). Large-scale ascent will become increasingly displaced to the north across the Southeast, and convection may tend to be anafrontal. Trends will be monitored and severe probabilities could become necessary for parts of the eastern U.S. on Thursday in later outlooks.

Severe potential will be limited on Friday as the prior cold frontal passages clears out Gulf moisture and surface high pressure envelops much of the eastern half of the U.S. Weak upper troughing could overspread the Rockies and High Plains by the end of the period, allowing for Gulf moisture return across the Plains and an increase in thunderstorm potential.

..Leitman.. 05/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Thursday, May 7

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020755 SPC AC 020755

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-5/Tue-Wed – Southeast OK/ArkLaTex to Lower MS/TN Valleys

Southwesterly deep-layer flow will increase from the southern Rockies to the Mid-South on Day 4/Tuesday as a southern stream shortwave trough over the Southwest merges with an upper trough over the Plains/Upper Midwest. At the surface, low pressure will develop over the southern Plains and slowly progress east in AR as a cold front develops southeast across OK/AR and the Lower OH Valley. Ahead of the front, rich Gulf moisture will return northward, and 60s to near 70 F dewpoints are forecast by Tuesday afternoon/evening across southeast OK and the ArkLaTex. Timing of thunderstorm development is a bit uncertain as shortwave ridging may overspread the southern Plains vicinity through afternoon. However, forcing for ascent should increase with the approach of the surface front and as a low-level jet increasing Tuesday evening. Moderate instability and strong vertical shear should support severe thunderstorm activity near the cold front from late afternoon into Tuesday night.

On Day 5/Wednesday, the Plains upper trough will migrate east, extending from the Upper Great Lakes to the Lower MS Valley by early Thursday. The surface cold front will extend from the OH Valley into north/central TX Wednesday morning and slowly progress southeast through the period. Gulf moisture will return north and east across the southern U.S. ahead of the front. While deep-layer flow will largely be parallel to the surface front, moist and unstable airmass ahead of the front should support some risk for severe thunderstorms.

Days 6-8/Thu-Sat

A deepening surface low will develop northward across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Thursday as a surface cold front continues to shift east across much of the eastern U.S. While a moist airmass will be in place across parts of the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic, it is uncertain how much destabilization will occur due to possibly widespread thunderstorm activity and cloud cover (particularly from the Mid-Atlantic northward). Large-scale ascent will become increasingly displaced to the north across the Southeast, and convection may tend to be anafrontal. Trends will be monitored and severe probabilities could become necessary for parts of the eastern U.S. on Thursday in later outlooks.

Severe potential will be limited on Friday as the prior cold frontal passages clears out Gulf moisture and surface high pressure envelops much of the eastern half of the U.S. Weak upper troughing could overspread the Rockies and High Plains by the end of the period, allowing for Gulf moisture return across the Plains and an increase in thunderstorm potential.

..Leitman.. 05/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Friday, May 8

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020755 SPC AC 020755

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-5/Tue-Wed – Southeast OK/ArkLaTex to Lower MS/TN Valleys

Southwesterly deep-layer flow will increase from the southern Rockies to the Mid-South on Day 4/Tuesday as a southern stream shortwave trough over the Southwest merges with an upper trough over the Plains/Upper Midwest. At the surface, low pressure will develop over the southern Plains and slowly progress east in AR as a cold front develops southeast across OK/AR and the Lower OH Valley. Ahead of the front, rich Gulf moisture will return northward, and 60s to near 70 F dewpoints are forecast by Tuesday afternoon/evening across southeast OK and the ArkLaTex. Timing of thunderstorm development is a bit uncertain as shortwave ridging may overspread the southern Plains vicinity through afternoon. However, forcing for ascent should increase with the approach of the surface front and as a low-level jet increasing Tuesday evening. Moderate instability and strong vertical shear should support severe thunderstorm activity near the cold front from late afternoon into Tuesday night.

On Day 5/Wednesday, the Plains upper trough will migrate east, extending from the Upper Great Lakes to the Lower MS Valley by early Thursday. The surface cold front will extend from the OH Valley into north/central TX Wednesday morning and slowly progress southeast through the period. Gulf moisture will return north and east across the southern U.S. ahead of the front. While deep-layer flow will largely be parallel to the surface front, moist and unstable airmass ahead of the front should support some risk for severe thunderstorms.

Days 6-8/Thu-Sat

A deepening surface low will develop northward across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Thursday as a surface cold front continues to shift east across much of the eastern U.S. While a moist airmass will be in place across parts of the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic, it is uncertain how much destabilization will occur due to possibly widespread thunderstorm activity and cloud cover (particularly from the Mid-Atlantic northward). Large-scale ascent will become increasingly displaced to the north across the Southeast, and convection may tend to be anafrontal. Trends will be monitored and severe probabilities could become necessary for parts of the eastern U.S. on Thursday in later outlooks.

Severe potential will be limited on Friday as the prior cold frontal passages clears out Gulf moisture and surface high pressure envelops much of the eastern half of the U.S. Weak upper troughing could overspread the Rockies and High Plains by the end of the period, allowing for Gulf moisture return across the Plains and an increase in thunderstorm potential.

..Leitman.. 05/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, May 9

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020755 SPC AC 020755

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-5/Tue-Wed – Southeast OK/ArkLaTex to Lower MS/TN Valleys

Southwesterly deep-layer flow will increase from the southern Rockies to the Mid-South on Day 4/Tuesday as a southern stream shortwave trough over the Southwest merges with an upper trough over the Plains/Upper Midwest. At the surface, low pressure will develop over the southern Plains and slowly progress east in AR as a cold front develops southeast across OK/AR and the Lower OH Valley. Ahead of the front, rich Gulf moisture will return northward, and 60s to near 70 F dewpoints are forecast by Tuesday afternoon/evening across southeast OK and the ArkLaTex. Timing of thunderstorm development is a bit uncertain as shortwave ridging may overspread the southern Plains vicinity through afternoon. However, forcing for ascent should increase with the approach of the surface front and as a low-level jet increasing Tuesday evening. Moderate instability and strong vertical shear should support severe thunderstorm activity near the cold front from late afternoon into Tuesday night.

On Day 5/Wednesday, the Plains upper trough will migrate east, extending from the Upper Great Lakes to the Lower MS Valley by early Thursday. The surface cold front will extend from the OH Valley into north/central TX Wednesday morning and slowly progress southeast through the period. Gulf moisture will return north and east across the southern U.S. ahead of the front. While deep-layer flow will largely be parallel to the surface front, moist and unstable airmass ahead of the front should support some risk for severe thunderstorms.

Days 6-8/Thu-Sat

A deepening surface low will develop northward across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Thursday as a surface cold front continues to shift east across much of the eastern U.S. While a moist airmass will be in place across parts of the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic, it is uncertain how much destabilization will occur due to possibly widespread thunderstorm activity and cloud cover (particularly from the Mid-Atlantic northward). Large-scale ascent will become increasingly displaced to the north across the Southeast, and convection may tend to be anafrontal. Trends will be monitored and severe probabilities could become necessary for parts of the eastern U.S. on Thursday in later outlooks.

Severe potential will be limited on Friday as the prior cold frontal passages clears out Gulf moisture and surface high pressure envelops much of the eastern half of the U.S. Weak upper troughing could overspread the Rockies and High Plains by the end of the period, allowing for Gulf moisture return across the Plains and an increase in thunderstorm potential.

..Leitman.. 05/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Saturday, May 2

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 15%

Sunday, May 3

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 5%

Monday, May 4

ANY SEVERE: 5%

Tuesday, May 5

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Wednesday, May 6

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Thursday, May 7

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, May 8

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Saturday, May 9

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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