TORNADO HQ: waiting on update ...

Finding your location risk...

Severe Weather Outlook

show me my personal outlook →

Hayley here - Do you want to see severe weather in your calendar?


* it's like an add-on for your digital calendar NOT a paper calendar

National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Monday, September 14

Outlook Summary

Strong to severe storms remain possible tonight across parts of the central Plains and Midwest, with the greatest remaining threat expected from western into central Iowa.

Outlook Images

overview

overview severe weather outlook for Monday, September 14

tornado 5%

tornado severe weather outlook for Monday, September 14

wind 15%

wind severe weather outlook for Monday, September 14

hail 5%

hail severe weather outlook for Monday, September 14

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 150056

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Valid 150100Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL IA AND FAR NORTHWEST MO

### SUMMARY

Strong to severe storms remain possible tonight across parts of the central Plains and Midwest, with the greatest remaining threat expected from western into central Iowa.

Western/northern KS into southeastern NE/IA/northwest MO

A broken band of thunderstorms is ongoing this evening from western KS into eastern NE and western IA. The western portion of this band may pose a localized severe-wind threat through dusk across western/northern KS, in the presence of a remnant well-mixed boundary layer and moderate deep-layer flow.

Farther east, a narrow corridor of rich low-level moisture and moderate buoyancy resides from northeast KS/northwest MO into far southeast NE and southwest IA. Low-level shear/SRH remains locally enhanced across in the vicinity of the effective warm front, conditionally supporting tornadic supercell potential. However, ongoing convection has already become outflow dominant, and residual downstream MLCINH may continue to limit surface-based supercell potential this evening. Even if tornado potential does not evolve, the environment otherwise remains favorable for damaging winds and isolated hail as storms move eastward through the evening.

Convection will become increasingly elevated with eastward extent late tonight, though the strongest cells/clusters may remain capable of producing isolated hail and localized strong/damaging gusts into the early morning hours. Other bands or clusters of elevated storms will also be possible in the wake of earlier convection across the central Plains, with moderate elevated buoyancy potentially supporting a brief/localized severe threat overnight.

..Dean.. 09/15/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Tuesday, September 15

Outlook Summary

Scattered strong thunderstorms may occur from the Great Lakes southwestward through the lower Missouri Valley Tuesday afternoon and evening, with at least isolated damaging wind gusts possible.

Outlook Images

overview

overview severe weather outlook for Tuesday, September 15

tornado low

tornado severe weather outlook for Tuesday, September 15

wind 5%

wind severe weather outlook for Tuesday, September 15

hail low

hail severe weather outlook for Tuesday, September 15

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 141714

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM KANSAS INTO WESTERN OHIO

### SUMMARY

Scattered strong thunderstorms may occur from the Great Lakes southwestward through the lower Missouri Valley Tuesday afternoon and evening, with at least isolated damaging wind gusts possible.

Discussion

A potent upper trough will eject out of the Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes on Tuesday, with 20-30 kt midlevel winds trailing southwestward toward the Central Plains. High pressure will build into the Plains behind a cold front, which will extend roughly from Lower MI to central MO to the KS/OK border by 21Z.

Mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will be common ahead of the cold front, with areas of 70s F dewpoints from the Lower MO Valley into IL/IN. Strong heating will occur ahead of this boundary, contributing to 2000+ J/kg MUCAPE, though midlevel lapse rates will be poor.

Early day thunderstorms may be ongoing from northern KS into Lower MI, with weakening expected as the upper trough lifts out. However, redevelopment will be likely along the aggregate front/outflow as the air mass destabilizes. Storms are expected to be primarily short-lived as shear will be weak. However, a few clusters may develop near the front, with some eastward propagation and wind gust potential through early evening.

..Jewell.. 09/14/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Wednesday, September 16

Outlook Summary

The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. on Wednesday.

Outlook Images

overview

overview severe weather outlook for Wednesday, September 16

any severe low

any severe severe weather outlook for Wednesday, September 16

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 141916

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. on Wednesday.

Discussion

Stronger winds aloft will extend from the Northern Plains into the Upper Great Lakes on Wednesday as a large upper ridge expands across much of the central to southeastern states. A surface high will also exist over the Upper MS Valley and Great Lakes which will keep the more favorable instability well south of the stronger flow/shear. While a secondary shortwave trough will swing across central Canada and into the northern Plains late, instability should be minimal that far north.

The greatest chance of thunderstorms will be near a weak/stalled front from the Central Plains eastward across the Midwest and OH Valley, where dewpoints of 65-70 F will be common. Early day thunderstorms across this same zone will likely dissipate during the day, with scattered redevelopment near peak heating. Given the generally poor lapse rates aloft and weak shear, the severe storm threat appears low.

..Jewell.. 09/14/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Thursday, September 17

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Thursday, September 17

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Thursday, September 17 potential too low
Day 5 Friday, September 18 potential too low
Day 6 Saturday, September 19 potential too low
Day 7 Sunday, September 20 potential too low
Day 8 Monday, September 21 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140854 SPC AC 140854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

DISCUSSION

Latest medium-range model output continues to indicate that initially prominent Southeastern mid-level ridging will gradually become suppressed late this week into next weekend. However, short wave developments within the westerlies become more unclear by next weekend into early next week. In general, it appears that a modest to weak split flow will evolve across much of North America, as larger positive mid-level height anomalies tend to develop across interior Canada.

It is possible that diurnal destabilization will remain sufficient to support areas of stronger daily thunderstorm development across the U.S., supported by forcing for ascent associated with these evolving perturbations. However, any associated severe weather seems unlikely to become particularly well organized and probably will remain rather isolated and/or marginal in nature.

..Kerr.. 09/14/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Friday, September 18

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Friday, September 18

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Thursday, September 17 potential too low
Day 5 Friday, September 18 potential too low
Day 6 Saturday, September 19 potential too low
Day 7 Sunday, September 20 potential too low
Day 8 Monday, September 21 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140854 SPC AC 140854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

DISCUSSION

Latest medium-range model output continues to indicate that initially prominent Southeastern mid-level ridging will gradually become suppressed late this week into next weekend. However, short wave developments within the westerlies become more unclear by next weekend into early next week. In general, it appears that a modest to weak split flow will evolve across much of North America, as larger positive mid-level height anomalies tend to develop across interior Canada.

It is possible that diurnal destabilization will remain sufficient to support areas of stronger daily thunderstorm development across the U.S., supported by forcing for ascent associated with these evolving perturbations. However, any associated severe weather seems unlikely to become particularly well organized and probably will remain rather isolated and/or marginal in nature.

..Kerr.. 09/14/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Saturday, September 19

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Saturday, September 19

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Thursday, September 17 potential too low
Day 5 Friday, September 18 potential too low
Day 6 Saturday, September 19 potential too low
Day 7 Sunday, September 20 potential too low
Day 8 Monday, September 21 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140854 SPC AC 140854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

DISCUSSION

Latest medium-range model output continues to indicate that initially prominent Southeastern mid-level ridging will gradually become suppressed late this week into next weekend. However, short wave developments within the westerlies become more unclear by next weekend into early next week. In general, it appears that a modest to weak split flow will evolve across much of North America, as larger positive mid-level height anomalies tend to develop across interior Canada.

It is possible that diurnal destabilization will remain sufficient to support areas of stronger daily thunderstorm development across the U.S., supported by forcing for ascent associated with these evolving perturbations. However, any associated severe weather seems unlikely to become particularly well organized and probably will remain rather isolated and/or marginal in nature.

..Kerr.. 09/14/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Sunday, September 20

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Sunday, September 20

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Thursday, September 17 potential too low
Day 5 Friday, September 18 potential too low
Day 6 Saturday, September 19 potential too low
Day 7 Sunday, September 20 potential too low
Day 8 Monday, September 21 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140854 SPC AC 140854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

DISCUSSION

Latest medium-range model output continues to indicate that initially prominent Southeastern mid-level ridging will gradually become suppressed late this week into next weekend. However, short wave developments within the westerlies become more unclear by next weekend into early next week. In general, it appears that a modest to weak split flow will evolve across much of North America, as larger positive mid-level height anomalies tend to develop across interior Canada.

It is possible that diurnal destabilization will remain sufficient to support areas of stronger daily thunderstorm development across the U.S., supported by forcing for ascent associated with these evolving perturbations. However, any associated severe weather seems unlikely to become particularly well organized and probably will remain rather isolated and/or marginal in nature.

..Kerr.. 09/14/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Monday, September 21

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Monday, September 21

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Thursday, September 17 potential too low
Day 5 Friday, September 18 potential too low
Day 6 Saturday, September 19 potential too low
Day 7 Sunday, September 20 potential too low
Day 8 Monday, September 21 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140854 SPC AC 140854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

DISCUSSION

Latest medium-range model output continues to indicate that initially prominent Southeastern mid-level ridging will gradually become suppressed late this week into next weekend. However, short wave developments within the westerlies become more unclear by next weekend into early next week. In general, it appears that a modest to weak split flow will evolve across much of North America, as larger positive mid-level height anomalies tend to develop across interior Canada.

It is possible that diurnal destabilization will remain sufficient to support areas of stronger daily thunderstorm development across the U.S., supported by forcing for ascent associated with these evolving perturbations. However, any associated severe weather seems unlikely to become particularly well organized and probably will remain rather isolated and/or marginal in nature.

..Kerr.. 09/14/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

National Risk Overview

Monday, September 14
TORNADO: 5%
HAIL: 5%
WIND: 15%
Tuesday, September 15
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: 5%
Wednesday, September 16
ANY SEVERE: low
Thursday, September 17
ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, September 18
ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, September 19
ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, September 20
ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, September 21
ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Your Severe Outlook

Center after dragging
Map loads as you approach it.

Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.

Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.


Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.

 

Severe Weather Outlook Amazon link →


About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.