Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, January 11
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 111558
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0958 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026
Valid 111630Z - 121200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States.
Synopsis
Water-vapor imagery shows a large-scale trough over the East and split flow over the West featuring a low over the Gulf of California and zonal flow over the northwest CONUS. Cool/stable conditions will influence weather conditions east of the Rockies, and as a result, prove hostile to thunderstorm development.
..Smith/Wendt.. 01/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Monday, January 12
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 111648
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday.
Synopsis
A mid/upper shortwave trough and attendant strong jet will move southeastward from the Canadian Prairies towards the northern Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. This system will be accompanied by cooling aloft and steepening midlevel lapse rates, but available moisture appears insufficient for appreciable buoyancy, resulting in limited thunderstorm potential.
An upper low is forecast to move across northern Mexico and approach southwest TX. Limited moisture is expected to result in negligible to only very weak elevated buoyancy, and thunderstorm potential appears low at this time.
Some low-level moistening and weak destabilization will be possible across far south FL and the Keys, but poor lapse rates and weak forcing are expected to hamper development of deep convection.
..Dean.. 01/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Tuesday, January 13
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorm potential appears low on Tuesday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 111851
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorm potential appears low on Tuesday.
Synopsis
Generally dry and stable conditions are expected to limit thunderstorm potential across the CONUS on Tuesday. A large-scale upper trough is forecast to amplify across the central/eastern CONUS. An embedded shortwave trough and attendant surface low are forecast to move across the Great Lakes vicinity, while a weak upper low initially near southwest TX is expected to evolve into a low-amplitude shortwave trough and move eastward across the Gulf Coast region.
A persistent surface ridge over the Gulf will inhibit moisture return and destabilization within the warm sector of the surface low moving across the Great Lakes. Modest low-level moisture and weak buoyancy may reside across parts of south FL and the Keys for much of the period. However, weak forcing and poor lapse rates will tend to inhibit deep convection, with any appreciable thunderstorm potential currently expected to remain offshore.
..Dean.. 01/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Wednesday, January 14
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, January 14 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, January 15 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, January 16 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, January 17 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, January 18 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110946 SPC AC 110946
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
A persistent large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to remain in the eastern U.S. during the Day 4 to 8 period. This pattern will be favorable for repeated cold air intrusions into the lower forty-eight states from mid to late week. Cold and dry surface high pressure will dominate across much of the nation, making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorm development.
..Broyles.. 01/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, January 15
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, January 14 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, January 15 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, January 16 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, January 17 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, January 18 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110946 SPC AC 110946
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
A persistent large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to remain in the eastern U.S. during the Day 4 to 8 period. This pattern will be favorable for repeated cold air intrusions into the lower forty-eight states from mid to late week. Cold and dry surface high pressure will dominate across much of the nation, making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorm development.
..Broyles.. 01/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, January 16
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, January 14 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, January 15 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, January 16 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, January 17 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, January 18 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110946 SPC AC 110946
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
A persistent large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to remain in the eastern U.S. during the Day 4 to 8 period. This pattern will be favorable for repeated cold air intrusions into the lower forty-eight states from mid to late week. Cold and dry surface high pressure will dominate across much of the nation, making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorm development.
..Broyles.. 01/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, January 17
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, January 14 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, January 15 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, January 16 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, January 17 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, January 18 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110946 SPC AC 110946
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
A persistent large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to remain in the eastern U.S. during the Day 4 to 8 period. This pattern will be favorable for repeated cold air intrusions into the lower forty-eight states from mid to late week. Cold and dry surface high pressure will dominate across much of the nation, making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorm development.
..Broyles.. 01/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, January 18
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, January 14 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, January 15 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, January 16 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, January 17 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, January 18 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110946 SPC AC 110946
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
A persistent large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to remain in the eastern U.S. during the Day 4 to 8 period. This pattern will be favorable for repeated cold air intrusions into the lower forty-eight states from mid to late week. Cold and dry surface high pressure will dominate across much of the nation, making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorm development.
..Broyles.. 01/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, January 11
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Monday, January 12
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, January 13
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Wednesday, January 14
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, January 15
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, January 16
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, January 17
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, January 18
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Your Severe Outlook
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