Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, April 28
Outlook Summary
Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms will occur across parts of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and Southeast through this evening. Very large to giant hail (2-4+ inches), swaths of severe/damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are all possible.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 30%
hail 30%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 281200
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
Valid 281300Z - 291200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH
### SUMMARY
Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms will occur across parts of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and Southeast through this evening. Very large to giant hail (2-4+ inches), swaths of severe/damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are all possible.
Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast
With large-scale upper troughing anchored over the Plains and central Canada, an embedded mid-level shortwave trough will eject eastward across the southern/central Plains to the lower/mid MS Valleys by this evening. Rich low-level moisture continues to spread northward from TX into southern OK this morning in tandem with a low-level jet, and this trend should continue downstream into the lower MS Valley through the day as a warm front lifts northward to a weak surface low across the Ozarks. Another surface low will remain over northwest TX, with a dryline extending southwestward to the Big Bend region.
A strongly unstable airmass exists across the southern Plains to the ArkLaTex, along and near a slowly retreating/northward-returning warm front. Elevated supercells are ongoing across western north TX. This activity is being aided by lift and strong deep-layer shear associated with the ejecting mid-level shortwave trough, and low-level warm/moist advection. Current expectations are for these supercells to continue posing a threat for mainly large to very large hail through the rest of the morning as they spread east-northeastward across north TX/southern OK. But, eventual clustering and a greater damaging wind threat may materialize into the afternoon as this convection crosses the front and accesses greater instability across AR and the Ozarks.
Additional surface-based convective development is forecast near the triple point in north-central TX towards the ArkLaTex this afternoon, where extreme instability (4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) and very strong deep-layer shear (50-60+ kt) will support the potential for multiple intense supercells. Very large to giant hail (2-4+ inches) may occur with the strongest supercells given the overall very favorable environment and presence of steep mid-level lapse rates. Some tornado threat may also exist with these supercells, even though low-level shear is not forecast to be overly strong.
Numerous to widespread convection across the Mid-South to southern Appalachians has generally diminished in intensity this morning. In its wake, airmass recovery is anticipated today across the lower MS Valley and Mid-South. A convectively reinforced front/outflow boundary from the morning thunderstorms should attempt to lift northward some through the day, with the greater instability forecast across the lower MS Valley where steep mid-level lapse rates are in place. Convective evolution across these areas through the evening remains unclear, but multiple rounds of supercells and multicell clusters capable of producing large hail, scattered to numerous damaging winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes appear likely. Less instability is forecast to the north of the ongoing convection across the TN Valley, but some airmass recovery and severe threat still appears possible by late afternoon/early evening.
..Gleason/Jewell.. 04/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Wednesday, April 29
Outlook Summary
Widely scattered strong to severe storms may impact a corridor from south of the Texas Big Bend through the north central Gulf Coast vicinity Wednesday afternoon into evening, with additional strong storms posing at least some risk for severe weather across the Allegheny Plateau into Mid Atlantic.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 280527
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN A CORRIDOR ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST…AND ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU INTO MID ATLANTIC
### SUMMARY
Widely scattered strong to severe storms may impact a corridor from south of the Texas Big Bend through the north central Gulf Coast vicinity Wednesday afternoon into evening, with additional strong storms posing at least some risk for severe weather across the Allegheny Plateau into Mid Atlantic.
Discussion
Models still indicate that mid-level ridging will build inland across the Canadian Rockies/Pacific Northwest through this period, but it appears that attempts at a developing embedded high near the Pacific Northwest coast will become suppressed by a short wave impulse within the westerlies approaching the British Columbia coast. Farther south, a mid-level low merging into a belt of westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific may accelerate toward southern California/northern Baja coastal areas, but models continue to substantively vary concerning this motion.
A downstream subtropical high, initially centered over southern Mexico, may undergo at least some further southwestward suppression, but it still may maintain considerable influence as far north as southern Texas through Texas Gulf coast Wednesday through Wednesday night. At the same time, in higher latitudes, large-scale troughing encompassing much of north central and northeastern North America is forecast to continue slowly digging toward the northern/mid Atlantic Seaboard. A broad embedded cyclonic mid-level circulation may begin to form near/north of the Great Lakes region.
The confluent mid-level regime across and east of the Rockies will likely support southeastward development of cool surface ridging across much of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley, in the wake of a southeastward advancing cold front. Models generally suggest that a modest surface low evolving along this front may migrate from the lower Ohio Valley northeastward through the lower Great Lakes region, with a modest secondary surface low forming along a developing warm front to the east of the Blue Ridge by late Wednesday afternoon into evening, but there is notable spread within the guidance concerning this evolution.
Lower Rio Grande Valley into north central Gulf Coast
Uncertainties abound concerning the convective potential for this period. The continuing presence of mid-level ridging and warm elevated mixed-layer air may be inhibitive to more than isolated sustained thunderstorm development east of the Rio Grande River, to the south of Del Rio, through much of Deep South Texas. Across the upper Texas coastal plain through much of the Gulf Coast states, conglomerate convective outflow from thunderstorm activity today through tonight may slow destabilization ahead of the southward advancing cold front, and there is spread concerning where this outflow may end up by 12Z Wednesday.
Still, subtle short wave perturbations within moderate to strong west-northwesterly mid/upper flow, near/north of the periphery of the subtropical ridging, may provide support for thunderstorm initiation with boundary-layer destabilization. Guidance suggests that this may include at least pockets of moderate CAPE, sufficient for isolated to widely scattered intense convection which could evolve into supercells and/or small organized clusters with potential to produce severe hail and wind.
Allegheny Plateau into Mid Atlantic
Given the spread among the latest model output concerning the initial surface frontal low migrating through the Ohio Valley, and the developing surface troughing/warm front to the east of the Blue Ridge, substantial uncertainty remains concerning the convective potential for this period. Remnant convective cloud cover and rain overspreading the region early in the day may also impede destabilization. However, with at least weak to moderate boundary-layer destabilization, strengthening wind fields and forcing for ascent associated with an approaching mid-level jet could become conducive to organized severe storm development. This may initiate west of the Allegheny Mountains, and include potential for evolving supercell structures, before developing to the east of the Blue Ridge by late Wednesday afternoon into evening.
..Kerr.. 04/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Thursday, April 30
Outlook Summary
Probabilities for severe storms Thursday through Thursday night appear less than 5 percent.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 280727
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
Valid 301200Z - 011200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Probabilities for severe storms Thursday through Thursday night appear less than 5 percent.
Discussion
Models suggest that an elongated area of lower mid-level heights will continue a slow east-southeastward progression across much of the upper Mississippi Valley through northern Atlantic Seaboard, with an embedded cyclonic circulation redeveloping southeastward through the Great Lakes region. In its wake split westerlies will remain broadly confluent across and east of the Rockies, as a short wave perturbation emerges from the subtropical eastern Pacific. Further suppression of subtropical ridging centered across southern Mexico appears probable Thursday through Thursday night, but short wave ridging may persist to the east of the southern Rockies, downstream of the subtropical perturbation.
Model spread remains sizable concerning the evolution and motion of the subtropical perturbation, as well as developments within a branch of westerlies to the north, emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific. However, to the east of the Rockies, cool surface ridging is likely to be maintained across much of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley into Southeast. While the frontal zone on the leading edge of this air mass advances away from much of the Atlantic Seaboard, it is generally forecast to stall across northern Florida through the northern Gulf or Gulf coast vicinity. More uncertainty exists, due to model spread, whether it will make further progress southward through the Texas Big Bend vicinity and coastal plain, or redevelop northward a bit, north of the coastal plain and Pecos Valley.
Forcing for ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, downstream of the approaching subtropical perturbation, may contribute to a corridor of increasing thunderstorm development above the stable surface-based air across parts of the Permian Basin and Texas South Plains through much of central Texas by late Thursday night. However, it remains unclear if elevated destabilization will become supportive of a risk for severe hail, before convection becomes increasingly widespread.
Otherwise, the front might provide a general focus for widely scattered thunderstorm activity near the Gulf coast vicinity, while destabilization beneath cool mid-level air across the Great Basin into southern Rockies supports scattered, mostly diurnal thunderstorm activity.
..Kerr.. 04/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Friday, May 1
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, May 1 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, May 2 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, May 3 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, May 4 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, May 5 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280923 SPC AC 280923
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0423 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range guidance indicates that the evolving split flow may maintain a broadly confluent mid-level regime across and east of the Rockies through this period. While a broad area of lower mid-level heights remains centered across the Ontario/Quebec and Upper Midwest through Northeast, it appears that a more prominent blocking ridge/high may evolve upstream near the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast by late this coming weekend into early next week. A developing low to its southeast may slowly progress inland across California into the Southwest, with downstream mid-level ridging building across the Rockies.
There is considerable model spread concerning embedded short wave developments, but it appears that potential for stronger convection will remain generally low for the time of year and confined to parts of the southern tier of the U.S., perhaps including parts of the San Joaquin Valley, as well as along a lingering frontal zone near or just south of the Gulf into southern Atlantic coastal plain. Due to a combination of low predictability and low severe weather potential, severe weather probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent through this period.
..Kerr.. 04/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, May 2
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, May 1 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, May 2 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, May 3 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, May 4 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, May 5 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280923 SPC AC 280923
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0423 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range guidance indicates that the evolving split flow may maintain a broadly confluent mid-level regime across and east of the Rockies through this period. While a broad area of lower mid-level heights remains centered across the Ontario/Quebec and Upper Midwest through Northeast, it appears that a more prominent blocking ridge/high may evolve upstream near the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast by late this coming weekend into early next week. A developing low to its southeast may slowly progress inland across California into the Southwest, with downstream mid-level ridging building across the Rockies.
There is considerable model spread concerning embedded short wave developments, but it appears that potential for stronger convection will remain generally low for the time of year and confined to parts of the southern tier of the U.S., perhaps including parts of the San Joaquin Valley, as well as along a lingering frontal zone near or just south of the Gulf into southern Atlantic coastal plain. Due to a combination of low predictability and low severe weather potential, severe weather probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent through this period.
..Kerr.. 04/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, May 3
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, May 1 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, May 2 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, May 3 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, May 4 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, May 5 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280923 SPC AC 280923
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0423 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range guidance indicates that the evolving split flow may maintain a broadly confluent mid-level regime across and east of the Rockies through this period. While a broad area of lower mid-level heights remains centered across the Ontario/Quebec and Upper Midwest through Northeast, it appears that a more prominent blocking ridge/high may evolve upstream near the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast by late this coming weekend into early next week. A developing low to its southeast may slowly progress inland across California into the Southwest, with downstream mid-level ridging building across the Rockies.
There is considerable model spread concerning embedded short wave developments, but it appears that potential for stronger convection will remain generally low for the time of year and confined to parts of the southern tier of the U.S., perhaps including parts of the San Joaquin Valley, as well as along a lingering frontal zone near or just south of the Gulf into southern Atlantic coastal plain. Due to a combination of low predictability and low severe weather potential, severe weather probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent through this period.
..Kerr.. 04/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, May 4
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, May 1 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, May 2 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, May 3 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, May 4 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, May 5 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280923 SPC AC 280923
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0423 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range guidance indicates that the evolving split flow may maintain a broadly confluent mid-level regime across and east of the Rockies through this period. While a broad area of lower mid-level heights remains centered across the Ontario/Quebec and Upper Midwest through Northeast, it appears that a more prominent blocking ridge/high may evolve upstream near the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast by late this coming weekend into early next week. A developing low to its southeast may slowly progress inland across California into the Southwest, with downstream mid-level ridging building across the Rockies.
There is considerable model spread concerning embedded short wave developments, but it appears that potential for stronger convection will remain generally low for the time of year and confined to parts of the southern tier of the U.S., perhaps including parts of the San Joaquin Valley, as well as along a lingering frontal zone near or just south of the Gulf into southern Atlantic coastal plain. Due to a combination of low predictability and low severe weather potential, severe weather probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent through this period.
..Kerr.. 04/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, May 5
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, May 1 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, May 2 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, May 3 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, May 4 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, May 5 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280923 SPC AC 280923
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0423 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range guidance indicates that the evolving split flow may maintain a broadly confluent mid-level regime across and east of the Rockies through this period. While a broad area of lower mid-level heights remains centered across the Ontario/Quebec and Upper Midwest through Northeast, it appears that a more prominent blocking ridge/high may evolve upstream near the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast by late this coming weekend into early next week. A developing low to its southeast may slowly progress inland across California into the Southwest, with downstream mid-level ridging building across the Rockies.
There is considerable model spread concerning embedded short wave developments, but it appears that potential for stronger convection will remain generally low for the time of year and confined to parts of the southern tier of the U.S., perhaps including parts of the San Joaquin Valley, as well as along a lingering frontal zone near or just south of the Gulf into southern Atlantic coastal plain. Due to a combination of low predictability and low severe weather potential, severe weather probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent through this period.
..Kerr.. 04/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, April 28
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 30%
- WIND: 30%
- Wednesday, April 29
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Thursday, April 30
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Friday, May 1
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, May 2
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, May 3
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, May 4
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, May 5
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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