Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, November 29
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of east and southeast Texas into western Louisiana today and tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 290548
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of east and southeast Texas into western Louisiana today and tonight.
Synopsis
A broad upper trough and increasingly strong westerly flow over the central US are forecast to quickly intensify today, moving into the Ohio Valley by tonight. Accompanying the strengthening trough, a surface low over OK will deepen and shift toward the mid MS valley. Trailing the low, a strong cold front will sweep southeastward with increasing moisture ahead of it over the far southern Plains. Ahead of the front, isolated strong to severe storms are possible over parts of East TX and western LA this afternoon into early Sunday morning.
Eastern Texas into western LA
South of the surface low across parts of central and southeast TX, low-level warm air advection is expected much of the day associated with a weakening 850 mb low-level jet. Persistent southerly flow will help transport low to mid 60s F dewpoints northward across the TX coastal plain into portions of central TX and far western LA. Filtered diurnal heating should allow for some warming of the relatively cool boundary layer. This warming, along with the increase in low-level moisture, should support at least weak destabilization by peak heating as cold mid-level temperatures from the approaching trough move overhead. While overall forcing and flow aloft should be modest south of the primary upper trough, isolated thunderstorms are possible within the warm advection regime through the afternoon and into the evening/overnight hours.
Veering hodographs and a subtle increase in deep-layer shear should favor some storm organization with convection across southeast TX into far western LA. Wind fields will be weak, but slightly enlarged low-level hodographs (ESRH 100-200 m2/s2) and a cellular storm mode could favor transient supercell structures along with occasionally organized multicells. A brief tornado and marginally severe hail are possible with the stronger updrafts. While any sustained severe risk is likely to be contingent upon sufficient warming for surface-base buoyancy, at least a low-end risk is possible from late afternoon through much of the overnight hours ahead of the cold front.
As the cold front moves south from the Red River into central TX this afternoon and into the evening, additional storms are likely to form along and behind it as the front encounters the northern fringes of the moisture plume. Despite sufficient buoyancy (MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg), the undercutting nature of the surging front should tend to limit storm intensity. Still, sufficient deep-layer shear (35-45 kt) could support a few stronger clusters as a broken line develops and surges south. Isolated hail, and perhaps some strong gusts are possible as the front is expected to quickly move toward the coast and reach the Gulf early Sunday morning.
..Lyons/Weinman.. 11/29/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Sunday, November 30
Outlook Summary
A few thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 290628
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025
Valid 301200Z - 011200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
A few thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
Synopsis
A broad mid-level trough will traverse the Northeast as a second mid-level trough to the west impinges on the Plains states tomorrow (Saturday). This upper-air pattern will support surface high pressure overspreading much of the CONUS, from the northern Rockies to the Atlantic Coastline. However, on the southern periphery of surface high pressure, a cold front will approach the Gulf Coast and FL Peninsula through the first half of the period. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the mid 60s F will support enough buoyancy for scattered thunderstorm development, given sufficient lift due to low-level convergence along the cold front. A couple of lightning flashes are possible over the central Rockies as a pocked of cooler air aloft overspreads the region in tandem with the passing mid-level trough. However, any scant buoyancy that develops may only be adequate enough for lightning flashes that are too sparse for the inclusion of thunder probabilities at this time.
..Squitieri.. 11/29/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Monday, December 1
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, December 1 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, December 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, December 3 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, December 4 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, December 5 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280849 SPC AC 280849
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper-air pattern will prevail over the CONUS through next week, supporting multiple rounds of surface high pressure overspreading the Interior West, Great Plains, OH Valley, and much of the Northeast. Static stability will limit thunderstorm development over most locales. However, a couple instances of surface low development are possible along the Gulf Coast this upcoming week, which may support thunderstorm development as seasonably rich low-level moisture returns inland, beneath deep-layer ascent.
A surface low may first traverse the Gulf Coast on Day 5/Tuesday, with a few strong thunderstorms possible along the warm front (assuming adequate buoyancy can materialize). A similar pattern of surface low development and progression along the Gulf Coast may also occur on Day 8/Friday, with thunderstorms also possible. Nonetheless, questions about the timing and track of the surface lows, and the degree of instability preceding them, warrant the withholding of severe probabilities for this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 11/28/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, December 2
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, December 1 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, December 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, December 3 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, December 4 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, December 5 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280849 SPC AC 280849
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper-air pattern will prevail over the CONUS through next week, supporting multiple rounds of surface high pressure overspreading the Interior West, Great Plains, OH Valley, and much of the Northeast. Static stability will limit thunderstorm development over most locales. However, a couple instances of surface low development are possible along the Gulf Coast this upcoming week, which may support thunderstorm development as seasonably rich low-level moisture returns inland, beneath deep-layer ascent.
A surface low may first traverse the Gulf Coast on Day 5/Tuesday, with a few strong thunderstorms possible along the warm front (assuming adequate buoyancy can materialize). A similar pattern of surface low development and progression along the Gulf Coast may also occur on Day 8/Friday, with thunderstorms also possible. Nonetheless, questions about the timing and track of the surface lows, and the degree of instability preceding them, warrant the withholding of severe probabilities for this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 11/28/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, December 3
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, December 1 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, December 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, December 3 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, December 4 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, December 5 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280849 SPC AC 280849
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper-air pattern will prevail over the CONUS through next week, supporting multiple rounds of surface high pressure overspreading the Interior West, Great Plains, OH Valley, and much of the Northeast. Static stability will limit thunderstorm development over most locales. However, a couple instances of surface low development are possible along the Gulf Coast this upcoming week, which may support thunderstorm development as seasonably rich low-level moisture returns inland, beneath deep-layer ascent.
A surface low may first traverse the Gulf Coast on Day 5/Tuesday, with a few strong thunderstorms possible along the warm front (assuming adequate buoyancy can materialize). A similar pattern of surface low development and progression along the Gulf Coast may also occur on Day 8/Friday, with thunderstorms also possible. Nonetheless, questions about the timing and track of the surface lows, and the degree of instability preceding them, warrant the withholding of severe probabilities for this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 11/28/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, December 4
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, December 1 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, December 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, December 3 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, December 4 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, December 5 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280849 SPC AC 280849
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper-air pattern will prevail over the CONUS through next week, supporting multiple rounds of surface high pressure overspreading the Interior West, Great Plains, OH Valley, and much of the Northeast. Static stability will limit thunderstorm development over most locales. However, a couple instances of surface low development are possible along the Gulf Coast this upcoming week, which may support thunderstorm development as seasonably rich low-level moisture returns inland, beneath deep-layer ascent.
A surface low may first traverse the Gulf Coast on Day 5/Tuesday, with a few strong thunderstorms possible along the warm front (assuming adequate buoyancy can materialize). A similar pattern of surface low development and progression along the Gulf Coast may also occur on Day 8/Friday, with thunderstorms also possible. Nonetheless, questions about the timing and track of the surface lows, and the degree of instability preceding them, warrant the withholding of severe probabilities for this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 11/28/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, December 5
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, December 1 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, December 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, December 3 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, December 4 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, December 5 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280849 SPC AC 280849
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper-air pattern will prevail over the CONUS through next week, supporting multiple rounds of surface high pressure overspreading the Interior West, Great Plains, OH Valley, and much of the Northeast. Static stability will limit thunderstorm development over most locales. However, a couple instances of surface low development are possible along the Gulf Coast this upcoming week, which may support thunderstorm development as seasonably rich low-level moisture returns inland, beneath deep-layer ascent.
A surface low may first traverse the Gulf Coast on Day 5/Tuesday, with a few strong thunderstorms possible along the warm front (assuming adequate buoyancy can materialize). A similar pattern of surface low development and progression along the Gulf Coast may also occur on Day 8/Friday, with thunderstorms also possible. Nonetheless, questions about the timing and track of the surface lows, and the degree of instability preceding them, warrant the withholding of severe probabilities for this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 11/28/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, November 29
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Sunday, November 30
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Monday, December 1
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, December 2
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, December 3
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, December 4
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, December 5
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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