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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Wednesday, June 10

Outlook Summary

Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms with potential for large hail in excess of two inches in diameter, a few strong tornadoes and damaging winds with gusts over 75 mph are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and Midwest.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 101959

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Valid 102000Z - 111200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms with potential for large hail in excess of two inches in diameter, a few strong tornadoes and damaging winds with gusts over 75 mph are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and Midwest.

20z Update

Only minor adjustments were made to the ongoing forecast based on recent convective trends and recent high-res guidance.

Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes

As of 20 UTC, regional radar mosaics depict a mature MCS ongoing across northern IL into northern WI with multiple severe gusts reported over the past few hours (see MCD #1066 for additional short-term details). Behind the MCS, a stout cold pool is in place from northeast MO into eastern IA and southeast MN featuring temperatures in the low 70s under a cirrus canopy. This cold pool casts some uncertainty on the degree of air mass recovery, and recent high-res guidance suggests that the primary severe threat may have passed for portions of the region. 30% wind probabilities were reduced to reflect this trend; however, southwesterly flow from the surface through 500 mb is advecting higher theta-e air in the low levels and steeper mid-level lapse rates east/northeastward into the cold pool. This will support re-development of strong to severe thunderstorms later this evening with primarily a risk for very large hail, so maintained Enhanced-caliber hail probabilities to reflect this potential.

Central Kansas/northwest Missouri

A volatile environment is emerging from central KS to northwest MO where MLCAPE is increasing to 3000-3500 J/kg per an 18 UTC TOP RAOB and recent mesoanalysis estimates. Additionally, the 18 UTC RAOB sampled effective bulk shear on the order of 50 knots as well as strong veering through the lowest kilometer. This environment is highly favorable for intense supercells, which appear likely in the coming hours based on recent GOES visible imagery (see MCD #1067 for additional short-term details). Recent HRRR/RRFS time-lagged ensemble guidance and WoFS solutions all suggest the highest hail and tornado threat will likely emerge from the Salina, KS area northeastward into northwest MO through the evening. Storm mode remains a modulating factor with upscale growth likely, but a window exists for very strong discrete/semi-discrete supercells. Both tornado and hail risk contours were adjusted west/southwestward to reflect these recent trends.

Eastern Nebraska/far western Iowa

Latest forecast guidance continues to show a signal for elevated convection near the terminus of a low-level jet across eastern NE/western IA late tonight/early Thursday morning. Forecast soundings from these solutions, most notably recent RAP runs and the 12z NAM, hint that low-level moisture advection may be sufficient to support parcels rooted near the surface. While the potential is fairly low, there is some potential for a tornado threat if low-level moistening is sufficient given an otherwise favorable near-surface wind profile, warranting the introduction of 2% tornado probabilities.

..Moore.. 06/10/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1256 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026/

Mid/Upper MS Valley into the central Plains

Regional radar imagery shows an ongoing cluster of strong thunderstorms across southern IA and northern MO, supported by a residual low-level jet that currently extends from KS/northern OK into the region. Heating of the very moist airmass downstream will result in limited convective inhibition and strong to very strong buoyancy by the early afternoon. Reintensification of the ongoing cluster is anticipated as it moves within this destabilizing airmass. Deep-layer shear will be modest but still sufficient for some organization, and the development of a strong to occasionally severe bowing line segment appears probable, particularly from northeast IA into southern WI and northern IL. New updrafts ahead of the line could also produce hail early in the convective cycle, while also potentially contributing to updraft augmentation as they merge into the line. Some isolated hail could result from this augmentation as well.

Farther north, recent surface analysis placed a triple point low over northeast SD. An occluded front extends north-northwestward from this low across eastern ND into central Manitoba, while cold front extends southward to another low over northeast NE and then back southwestward across the central Plains. The frontal zone and triple point low are forecast to progress eastward into the Upper Midwest, interacting with a diurnally destabilizing airmass to support thunderstorm development. Ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s) will support strong buoyancy, despite modest lapse rates, and moderate deep-layer vertical shear should be sufficient for updraft organization. As a result, strong to severe thunderstorms are expected along and just ahead the front, with large hail as the primary threat. Isolated very large hail to 2" in diameter could occur. Some damaging gusts are possible as storms transition into bowing line segments over time. There is also a low-probability for a few brief tornadoes, particularly with any more cellular development from central into eastern WI from 21 to 00Z.

An additional severe threat will likely materialize this evening in the wake of the afternoon MCS within the recovered airmass from the Mid MS Valley westward through the Mid MO Valley into the central Plains. The impetus for this redevelopment will likely be a complex combination of low-level convergence along the approaching front, low-level convergence and warm-air advection along remnant outflow, and modest large-scale ascent. Development along the front appears most likely from central IA southwestward into northeast KS, while development along the outflow appears most likely northwest IL across southern IA. The airmass in all of these areas will likely feature ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the low to mid 70s), warm surface temperatures (highs in the low 90s), and at least modestly steep mid-level lapse rates. This will result in strong to extreme buoyancy, with MLCAPE values exceeding 3000 J/kg from northeast KS into southern IA, northern MO, and west-central IL.

Complex surface pattern will likely yield limited predictability for the primary severe hazard this evening. Given the extreme buoyancy and moderate mid-level flow, any more cellular development that is able to mature should become supercellular, with all severe hazards possible, including very large hail and tornadoes. Storm interaction and strong downdrafts will likely make maintaining a discrete mode difficult, but low-level hodographs support the potential for a strong tornado, particularly from 00 to 03Z amid a strengthening low-level jet.

Lastly, early morning strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across central/eastern NE as a secondary branch of the low-level jet develops in response to another shortwave trough moving into the central High Plains.

Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic States

A moist and unstable airmass will be in place today across much of the region, with surface dewpoints generally in the lower 70s F. While some thunderstorms are ongoing early today, additional and more potent thunderstorm development is expected into the afternoon as the boundary layer destabilizes. These storms will be further influenced by a pair of weak eastward-moving MCVs, one over the upper Ohio River Valley and the other over the central Appalachians. Damaging winds, associated with water-loaded downbursts, will be the primary hazard regionally.

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Outlook for Thursday, June 11

Outlook Summary

Strong to severe thunderstorm development, including one or two organizing clusters, will probably be accompanied by the potential for large hail, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a couple of strong tornadoes in a corridor across the Midwest into Great Lakes region Thursday through Thursday night.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 101750

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AMD EASTERN IOWAS….NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI….NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS…SOUTHERN WISCONSIN…NORTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN

### THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS THROUGH NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC VICINITY

CORRECTED FOR A FEW TYPOS/WORDING

SUMMARY

Strong to severe thunderstorm development, including one or two organizing clusters, will probably be accompanied by the potential for large hail, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a couple of strong tornadoes in a corridor across the Midwest into Great Lakes region Thursday through Thursday night.

Discussion

Models indicate that mid-level subtropical ridging will be maintained across much of the southern tier of the U.S. through this period, while the westerlies begin to trend a bit more zonal across the northern tier, in the wake of a broad, deep occluding cyclone slowly migrating northeastward toward southwestern Hudson Bay. A significant short wave trough turning to the east of the northern Rockies, to the south of the cyclone, at the outset of the period, is still forecast to pivot across southern portions of the mid Missouri Valley through the upper Great Lakes Thursday through Thursday night. This is likely to be accompanied by the northeastward migration of an associated secondary surface frontal low, from the central Great Plains across and northeast of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region by 12Z Friday.

Downstream, mid-level ridging appears likely to build through the day across the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley vicinity, with one or two perturbations digging within weak northwesterly flow further downstream, across the Allegheny Mountains and northern Mid Atlantic vicinity.

A seasonably moist air mass, supportive of moderate to large potential instability, is likely to be maintained within the warm sector of the cyclone, to the north of the subtropical ridge. However, it appears that this may be substantively modified, at least initially, by outflow from thunderstorm development today across a large portion of the Upper Midwest into Great Lakes region. There have been some adjustments of categorical and probabilistic thunder/severe lines to account for associated uncertainties, and also attempt to better account for consensus of varying model output.

Upper Midwest/Great Lakes into southern Great Plains

Downstream of the approaching short wave impulse and secondary low, low-level warm advection on the nose of a 40-50 kt southerly 850 mb jet may be providing support for an evolving convective cluster along/north of an outflow boundary across southwestern Iowa at the outset of the period. This may include storms with potential to produce severe hail, before perhaps becoming rooted in a destabilizing boundary layer while spreading with forcing across Iowa through southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois through Thursday afternoon. This could include increasing potential for convection capable of producing damaging wind gust and perhaps a few tornadoes.

Thereafter, the primary forcing for stronger destabilization and lift to support strong/severe thunderstorm development seems likely to shift to the intersection of the trailing outflow/secondary surface low/cold front across southeastern Iowa by late afternoon. This may include supercell development initially, before convection grows upscale and organizes in the presence of strong low-level and deep-layer shear, then propagates into and across the lower Lake Michigan/Michigan vicinities through Thursday evening, with potential for strong, damaging wind gusts and tornadoes.

Scattered additional strong/severe storm development is possible in the corridor of stronger pre-frontal instability, but weaker mid/upper support and shear, southwestward through portions of the southern Great Plains.

Alleghenies/northern Mid Atlantic

Moderate to locally strong potentially instability probably will become sufficient to support widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development with potential to produce damaging wind gusts Thursday afternoon and evening.

..Kerr.. 06/10/2026

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Outlook for Friday, June 12

Outlook Summary

Evolving clusters of storms may spread from the Allegheny Mountains, and perhaps Poconos and Catskills, into northern Mid Atlantic coast Friday afternoon and evening, accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 101930

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS VICINITY THROUGH MUCH OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND

### SUMMARY

Evolving clusters of storms may spread from the Allegheny Mountains, and perhaps Poconos and Catskills, into northern Mid Atlantic coast Friday afternoon and evening, accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts.

Discussion

Models indicate that subtropical ridging will be maintained across much of the southern tier of the U.S. through this period. Mid-level ridging may also build within the mid-latitudes, offshore of the Pacific coast, but a largely zonal regime appears likely to be maintained from the northern Rockies through the lower Great Lakes and northern Mid Atlantic.

While a secondary surface frontal low, shifting northeast of the Great Lakes region by 12z Friday, turns north/northwestward and occludes across the Hudson Bay vicinity by Friday night, the associated mid-level cyclone may only slowly shift eastward to the south-southwest of Hudson Bay. An increasingly convectively augmented trailing surface cold front appears likely to advance southeast of the lower Great Lakes through much of the Mid Atlantic by 12Z Saturday.

Allegheny Mountains into western New England/Mid Atlantic

Models suggest that westerly deep-layer mean wind fields are likely to remain rather modest through this period, and forcing for ascent associated with one or two short wave perturbations pivoting around the periphery of the mid-level low may be glancing with respect to the evolving surface warm sector. However, guidance generally suggests that a seasonably moist pre-frontal boundary-layer (surface dew points near 70F) across the Allegheny Plateau/Mountains into the Adirondacks and Champlain/Hudson Valley vicinity may become characterized by sizable CAPE on the order of 2000+ J/kg with insolation. Preceding at least weak mid-level height falls, this environment is expected to become supportive increasing vigorous thunderstorm through early/mid Friday afternoon.

Strengthening surface cold pools, perhaps aided by lower/mid-tropospheric flow on the order of 20-30+ kt, may contribute to modestly organizing clusters with potential to produce damaging wind gusts while propagating east of the higher terrain, toward the northern Mid Atlantic coast, through early Friday evening.

..Kerr.. 06/10/2026

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Outlook for Saturday, June 13

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100826 SPC AC 100826

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Saturday

The models are in generally good agreement in depicting a prominent, mid/upper-level low over Ontario with a secondary, weaker low or short-wave trough across the northern Rockies. A belt of enhanced, westerly winds in the mid levels will reside to the south of those features from the northern Plains through the Great Lakes. At the surface, an area of low pressure is forecast across the central Plains with an associated front extending northeast into the upper Great Lakes.

A strongly unstable air mass is forecast ahead of the front across portions of the mid/lower MO Valley into Ozark Plateau with instability decreasing with northeastward extent into the upper Great Lakes. The models indicate sufficiently strong deep-layer shear across the frontal zone to support organized storm modes, including supercells. Highest confidence in greater storm coverage and an associated severe-weather threat remains centered on the mid/lower MO Valleys. Severe-weather probabilities may need to be extended into the upper Great Lakes in subsequent outlooks.

### Day 5/Sunday

A number of the deterministic models indicate a short-wave trough and associated jet streak moving through the Great Lakes into Northeast, within the base of the Ontario upper low. Farther west, the northern Rockies short-wave trough will advance toward the central Rockies. At the surface, a cold front associated with the former disturbance mentioned above will progress through the Northeast and OH Valley, with the western extension of the boundary stalling across the southern Plains.

The models indicate a narrow axis of modest instability developing by afternoon ahead of the front from the northern New England to the upper OH Valley, where the strongest vertical shear is forecast. Some severe weather appears possible in those areas; however, the limited extent of the warm sector leads to uncertainty in the coverage and duration of any threat.

Greater instability and a wider warm sector are forecast with southwestward extent from the OH River and TN Valley into southern Plains. Generally weak vertical shear is forecast across the frontal zone, which should limit the degree of storm organization. A possible exception is across the southern and central High Plains, where an easterly low-level wind component will boost deep-layer shear to some extent. Model trends will be monitored for the possible inclusion of severe-weather probabilities in that area.

### Day 6/Monday

The deterministic models are in reasonably good agreement in amplifying the aforementioned short-wave trough over the central Plains with an associated belt of enhanced mid-level flow extending through the OH Valley into Northeast. At the surface, there is some signal that an area of low pressure could develop along a front across the southern Plains into Ozark Plateau. Some severe-weather threat appears possible in that area, as well as along the front that is expected to stretch east through the TN Valley into the Carolinas. Predictability in the specific details are too low to include an area.

### Days 7-8/Tuesday and Wednesday

The ensemble mean solutions are in relatively good agreement in suggesting the central Plains short-wave trough will become absorbed into broader-scale trough amplification east of the MS Valley. At the surface, it appears that a frontal wave will move from the TN Valley toward the Mid-Atlantic coast, while a trailing cold front advances into the Gulf Coast states. While areas of severe weather are possible during this time frame, predictability in their location is low.

..Mead.. 06/10/2026

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Outlook for Sunday, June 14

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100826 SPC AC 100826

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Saturday

The models are in generally good agreement in depicting a prominent, mid/upper-level low over Ontario with a secondary, weaker low or short-wave trough across the northern Rockies. A belt of enhanced, westerly winds in the mid levels will reside to the south of those features from the northern Plains through the Great Lakes. At the surface, an area of low pressure is forecast across the central Plains with an associated front extending northeast into the upper Great Lakes.

A strongly unstable air mass is forecast ahead of the front across portions of the mid/lower MO Valley into Ozark Plateau with instability decreasing with northeastward extent into the upper Great Lakes. The models indicate sufficiently strong deep-layer shear across the frontal zone to support organized storm modes, including supercells. Highest confidence in greater storm coverage and an associated severe-weather threat remains centered on the mid/lower MO Valleys. Severe-weather probabilities may need to be extended into the upper Great Lakes in subsequent outlooks.

### Day 5/Sunday

A number of the deterministic models indicate a short-wave trough and associated jet streak moving through the Great Lakes into Northeast, within the base of the Ontario upper low. Farther west, the northern Rockies short-wave trough will advance toward the central Rockies. At the surface, a cold front associated with the former disturbance mentioned above will progress through the Northeast and OH Valley, with the western extension of the boundary stalling across the southern Plains.

The models indicate a narrow axis of modest instability developing by afternoon ahead of the front from the northern New England to the upper OH Valley, where the strongest vertical shear is forecast. Some severe weather appears possible in those areas; however, the limited extent of the warm sector leads to uncertainty in the coverage and duration of any threat.

Greater instability and a wider warm sector are forecast with southwestward extent from the OH River and TN Valley into southern Plains. Generally weak vertical shear is forecast across the frontal zone, which should limit the degree of storm organization. A possible exception is across the southern and central High Plains, where an easterly low-level wind component will boost deep-layer shear to some extent. Model trends will be monitored for the possible inclusion of severe-weather probabilities in that area.

### Day 6/Monday

The deterministic models are in reasonably good agreement in amplifying the aforementioned short-wave trough over the central Plains with an associated belt of enhanced mid-level flow extending through the OH Valley into Northeast. At the surface, there is some signal that an area of low pressure could develop along a front across the southern Plains into Ozark Plateau. Some severe-weather threat appears possible in that area, as well as along the front that is expected to stretch east through the TN Valley into the Carolinas. Predictability in the specific details are too low to include an area.

### Days 7-8/Tuesday and Wednesday

The ensemble mean solutions are in relatively good agreement in suggesting the central Plains short-wave trough will become absorbed into broader-scale trough amplification east of the MS Valley. At the surface, it appears that a frontal wave will move from the TN Valley toward the Mid-Atlantic coast, while a trailing cold front advances into the Gulf Coast states. While areas of severe weather are possible during this time frame, predictability in their location is low.

..Mead.. 06/10/2026

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Outlook for Monday, June 15

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100826 SPC AC 100826

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Saturday

The models are in generally good agreement in depicting a prominent, mid/upper-level low over Ontario with a secondary, weaker low or short-wave trough across the northern Rockies. A belt of enhanced, westerly winds in the mid levels will reside to the south of those features from the northern Plains through the Great Lakes. At the surface, an area of low pressure is forecast across the central Plains with an associated front extending northeast into the upper Great Lakes.

A strongly unstable air mass is forecast ahead of the front across portions of the mid/lower MO Valley into Ozark Plateau with instability decreasing with northeastward extent into the upper Great Lakes. The models indicate sufficiently strong deep-layer shear across the frontal zone to support organized storm modes, including supercells. Highest confidence in greater storm coverage and an associated severe-weather threat remains centered on the mid/lower MO Valleys. Severe-weather probabilities may need to be extended into the upper Great Lakes in subsequent outlooks.

### Day 5/Sunday

A number of the deterministic models indicate a short-wave trough and associated jet streak moving through the Great Lakes into Northeast, within the base of the Ontario upper low. Farther west, the northern Rockies short-wave trough will advance toward the central Rockies. At the surface, a cold front associated with the former disturbance mentioned above will progress through the Northeast and OH Valley, with the western extension of the boundary stalling across the southern Plains.

The models indicate a narrow axis of modest instability developing by afternoon ahead of the front from the northern New England to the upper OH Valley, where the strongest vertical shear is forecast. Some severe weather appears possible in those areas; however, the limited extent of the warm sector leads to uncertainty in the coverage and duration of any threat.

Greater instability and a wider warm sector are forecast with southwestward extent from the OH River and TN Valley into southern Plains. Generally weak vertical shear is forecast across the frontal zone, which should limit the degree of storm organization. A possible exception is across the southern and central High Plains, where an easterly low-level wind component will boost deep-layer shear to some extent. Model trends will be monitored for the possible inclusion of severe-weather probabilities in that area.

### Day 6/Monday

The deterministic models are in reasonably good agreement in amplifying the aforementioned short-wave trough over the central Plains with an associated belt of enhanced mid-level flow extending through the OH Valley into Northeast. At the surface, there is some signal that an area of low pressure could develop along a front across the southern Plains into Ozark Plateau. Some severe-weather threat appears possible in that area, as well as along the front that is expected to stretch east through the TN Valley into the Carolinas. Predictability in the specific details are too low to include an area.

### Days 7-8/Tuesday and Wednesday

The ensemble mean solutions are in relatively good agreement in suggesting the central Plains short-wave trough will become absorbed into broader-scale trough amplification east of the MS Valley. At the surface, it appears that a frontal wave will move from the TN Valley toward the Mid-Atlantic coast, while a trailing cold front advances into the Gulf Coast states. While areas of severe weather are possible during this time frame, predictability in their location is low.

..Mead.. 06/10/2026

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Outlook for Tuesday, June 16

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100826 SPC AC 100826

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Saturday

The models are in generally good agreement in depicting a prominent, mid/upper-level low over Ontario with a secondary, weaker low or short-wave trough across the northern Rockies. A belt of enhanced, westerly winds in the mid levels will reside to the south of those features from the northern Plains through the Great Lakes. At the surface, an area of low pressure is forecast across the central Plains with an associated front extending northeast into the upper Great Lakes.

A strongly unstable air mass is forecast ahead of the front across portions of the mid/lower MO Valley into Ozark Plateau with instability decreasing with northeastward extent into the upper Great Lakes. The models indicate sufficiently strong deep-layer shear across the frontal zone to support organized storm modes, including supercells. Highest confidence in greater storm coverage and an associated severe-weather threat remains centered on the mid/lower MO Valleys. Severe-weather probabilities may need to be extended into the upper Great Lakes in subsequent outlooks.

### Day 5/Sunday

A number of the deterministic models indicate a short-wave trough and associated jet streak moving through the Great Lakes into Northeast, within the base of the Ontario upper low. Farther west, the northern Rockies short-wave trough will advance toward the central Rockies. At the surface, a cold front associated with the former disturbance mentioned above will progress through the Northeast and OH Valley, with the western extension of the boundary stalling across the southern Plains.

The models indicate a narrow axis of modest instability developing by afternoon ahead of the front from the northern New England to the upper OH Valley, where the strongest vertical shear is forecast. Some severe weather appears possible in those areas; however, the limited extent of the warm sector leads to uncertainty in the coverage and duration of any threat.

Greater instability and a wider warm sector are forecast with southwestward extent from the OH River and TN Valley into southern Plains. Generally weak vertical shear is forecast across the frontal zone, which should limit the degree of storm organization. A possible exception is across the southern and central High Plains, where an easterly low-level wind component will boost deep-layer shear to some extent. Model trends will be monitored for the possible inclusion of severe-weather probabilities in that area.

### Day 6/Monday

The deterministic models are in reasonably good agreement in amplifying the aforementioned short-wave trough over the central Plains with an associated belt of enhanced mid-level flow extending through the OH Valley into Northeast. At the surface, there is some signal that an area of low pressure could develop along a front across the southern Plains into Ozark Plateau. Some severe-weather threat appears possible in that area, as well as along the front that is expected to stretch east through the TN Valley into the Carolinas. Predictability in the specific details are too low to include an area.

### Days 7-8/Tuesday and Wednesday

The ensemble mean solutions are in relatively good agreement in suggesting the central Plains short-wave trough will become absorbed into broader-scale trough amplification east of the MS Valley. At the surface, it appears that a frontal wave will move from the TN Valley toward the Mid-Atlantic coast, while a trailing cold front advances into the Gulf Coast states. While areas of severe weather are possible during this time frame, predictability in their location is low.

..Mead.. 06/10/2026

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Outlook for Wednesday, June 17

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100826 SPC AC 100826

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Saturday

The models are in generally good agreement in depicting a prominent, mid/upper-level low over Ontario with a secondary, weaker low or short-wave trough across the northern Rockies. A belt of enhanced, westerly winds in the mid levels will reside to the south of those features from the northern Plains through the Great Lakes. At the surface, an area of low pressure is forecast across the central Plains with an associated front extending northeast into the upper Great Lakes.

A strongly unstable air mass is forecast ahead of the front across portions of the mid/lower MO Valley into Ozark Plateau with instability decreasing with northeastward extent into the upper Great Lakes. The models indicate sufficiently strong deep-layer shear across the frontal zone to support organized storm modes, including supercells. Highest confidence in greater storm coverage and an associated severe-weather threat remains centered on the mid/lower MO Valleys. Severe-weather probabilities may need to be extended into the upper Great Lakes in subsequent outlooks.

### Day 5/Sunday

A number of the deterministic models indicate a short-wave trough and associated jet streak moving through the Great Lakes into Northeast, within the base of the Ontario upper low. Farther west, the northern Rockies short-wave trough will advance toward the central Rockies. At the surface, a cold front associated with the former disturbance mentioned above will progress through the Northeast and OH Valley, with the western extension of the boundary stalling across the southern Plains.

The models indicate a narrow axis of modest instability developing by afternoon ahead of the front from the northern New England to the upper OH Valley, where the strongest vertical shear is forecast. Some severe weather appears possible in those areas; however, the limited extent of the warm sector leads to uncertainty in the coverage and duration of any threat.

Greater instability and a wider warm sector are forecast with southwestward extent from the OH River and TN Valley into southern Plains. Generally weak vertical shear is forecast across the frontal zone, which should limit the degree of storm organization. A possible exception is across the southern and central High Plains, where an easterly low-level wind component will boost deep-layer shear to some extent. Model trends will be monitored for the possible inclusion of severe-weather probabilities in that area.

### Day 6/Monday

The deterministic models are in reasonably good agreement in amplifying the aforementioned short-wave trough over the central Plains with an associated belt of enhanced mid-level flow extending through the OH Valley into Northeast. At the surface, there is some signal that an area of low pressure could develop along a front across the southern Plains into Ozark Plateau. Some severe-weather threat appears possible in that area, as well as along the front that is expected to stretch east through the TN Valley into the Carolinas. Predictability in the specific details are too low to include an area.

### Days 7-8/Tuesday and Wednesday

The ensemble mean solutions are in relatively good agreement in suggesting the central Plains short-wave trough will become absorbed into broader-scale trough amplification east of the MS Valley. At the surface, it appears that a frontal wave will move from the TN Valley toward the Mid-Atlantic coast, while a trailing cold front advances into the Gulf Coast states. While areas of severe weather are possible during this time frame, predictability in their location is low.

..Mead.. 06/10/2026

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National Risk Overview

Wednesday, June 10

TORNADO: 10%

HAIL: 30%

WIND: 30%

Thursday, June 11

TORNADO: 10%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 30%

Friday, June 12

ANY SEVERE: 30%

Saturday, June 13

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Sunday, June 14

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Monday, June 15

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Tuesday, June 16

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Wednesday, June 17

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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