Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, October 11
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with and isolated tornado threat will be possible this evening near the Mid-Atlantic coast. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible across parts of the Desert Southwest.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 120047
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026
Valid 120100Z - 121200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND DESERT SOUTHWEST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with and isolated tornado threat will be possible this evening near the Mid-Atlantic coast. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible across parts of the Desert Southwest.
Mid Atlantic
Water vapor imagery currently shows a mid-level shortwave trough over the southern Appalachians. The eastern periphery of the system is located from the Mid-Atlantic extending offshore into the western Atlantic. At the surface, an axis of low-level moisture is located from far eastern North Carolina into southeast Virginia, along which the RAP has MLCAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. Isolated thunderstorm development will continue to be possible near the instability axis this evening. Strong low-level shear associated with a speed max along the Mid-Atlantic coast will continue an isolated tornado threat for a few more hours the evening.
Desert Southwest
Southwesterly mid-level flow is in place over the Desert Southwest this evening. At the surface, a moist axis is located across western Arizona, where dewpoints are in the 50s and 60s F. Along and near the moist axis, the RAP shows weak instability in place with SBCAPE around 500 J/kg. Over the top of this airmass, strong flow is present in the mid-levels according to RAP forecast soundings, which is creating 0-6 km shear around 50 knots over much western and central Arizona into southern Utah. This may be enough for an isolated potential for severe wind gusts this evening.
..Broyles.. 10/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Monday, October 12
Outlook Summary
No severe weather is expected Monday through Monday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 111703
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
No severe weather is expected Monday through Monday night.
Upper Midwest/Great Lakes
An upper shortwave trough will develop northeast from the central High Plains to the Great Lakes on Monday. This will bring a belt of mildly enhanced westerly mid/upper flow across the region, with an increasing southwesterly low-level jet expected by Monday evening from the Mid-MS Valley into MI. At the surface, low pressure will shift east across MN/WI/MI, with a trailing cold front surging east/southeast across the central Plains and Upper Midwest. A warm front will be oriented west to east across northern WI to northern Lower MI. Elevated thunderstorms may develop by 00z near and north of this boundary on the edge of the increasing low-level jet and stronger warm advection ahead of the surface low/cold front. Cooling aloft will result in a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates supporting modest elevated instability. Small hail may occur with stronger updrafts within the modestly sheared environment across northern WI/the U.P. of MI and portions of northern Lower MI during the evening and overnight hours. Overall severe potential is expected to remain limited by modest instability and capping across the warm sector, precluding severe probabilities.
Southwest/Great Basin
Lingering moisture across the Southwest and Great Basin will support scattered showers and thunderstorms within enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching upper low and attendant trough. Meager destabilization will limit severe potential, though some gusty winds are possible given stronger synoptic flow.
Southern High Plains
A few thunderstorms will be possible along a surface trough/dryline across western TX/eastern NM as low-level moisture returns north and west across the southern Plains. Modest vertical shear and weak instability should limit severe potential, though some locally gusty outflow winds are possible given steepened low-level lapse rates due to daytime heating into the upper 80s/low 90s.
..Leitman.. 10/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Tuesday, October 13
Outlook Summary
Widely scattered severe storms appear possible over portions of the central and southern High Plains Tuesday afternoon into night. More isolated severe weather may occur into the mid Mississippi Valley, and in parts of the Lower Great Lakes.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 111909
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Widely scattered severe storms appear possible over portions of the central and southern High Plains Tuesday afternoon into night. More isolated severe weather may occur into the mid Mississippi Valley, and in parts of the Lower Great Lakes.
Central/Southern Plains to Mid-MS Valley
Enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow will reside across the region on Tuesday in advance of an eastward-propagating upper low over the Great Basin to central Rockies vicinity. At the surface, weak lee low development is forecast across southeast CO/southwest KS, with surface troughing extending southward across the southern High Plains. Meanwhile, a surface front will extend from the High Plains low east/northeast across northern KS toward northern IL during the evening. Southerly low-level flow and a strengthening low-level jet will support mid 60s to near 70 F dewpoints across the warm sector from portions of western TX into OK/KS and the Mid-MS Valley. While midlevel lapse rates are not forecast to be particularly strong, rich boundary layer moisture will foster 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE.
Where stronger heating occurs in closer proximity to the surface trough and triple point from northwest TX into central KS, supercells will be possible amid vertically veering wind profiles. Damaging winds and a tornado or two appear possible within this zone of better instability and shear. Convection is likely to increase along the breadth of the surface front into the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley as warm advection increases during the evening and overnight hours. This convection may tend to be elevated within isentropic ascent atop the surface front, further supported by boundary-parallel wind profiles. Midlevel temperatures are forecast to be cooler, and MUCAPE could approach 1000-1500 J/kg. Marginal hail and gusty winds may accompany this activity into the nighttime hours.
Lower Great Lakes
Showers and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing Tuesday morning ahead of an approaching midlevel shortwave impulse over the Great Lakes. Deep-layer westerlies will increase through the day as this disturbance approaches, resulting in a moderately to strongly sheared environment. If sufficient heating can occur, surface dewpoints near 60 F will aid in modest destabilization, resulting in a conditionally favorable environment for localized strong wind gusts and perhaps a tornado.
..Leitman.. 10/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Wednesday, October 14
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, October 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, October 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, October 16 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, October 17 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, October 18 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110816 SPC AC 110816
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid/upper-level low is forecast to progress from the eastern Great Basin into the central Rockies on Day 4/Wednesday. By Day 5/Thursday, there is good model consensus in the break-up of the low, with much of it being enveloped by an amplifying polar-branch trough over the north-central CONUS. By Days 6 and 7/ Friday and Saturday, there is general model agreement that a broader-scale trough will spread from the MS Valley toward the Atlantic Coast.
### Day 4/Wednesday
At least isolated severe storms appear most probable over the southern Plains during the afternoon and evening, along and ahead of a surface front extending from the southern High Plains through the mid-MS Valley. The presence of a moist air mass will support moderate instability by afternoon in areas that experience greater daytime heating. Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Wednesday morning within the warm sector, leading to uncertainty in where the effective surface front will be located by afternoon to focus more robust storm development. While no 15% contour will be included in this forecast, at least level-1/Marginal Risk probabilities will likely be required in the subsequent Day 3 forecast for this time period.
Elsewhere, a few strong to severe storms appear possible along the remaining length of the front from the mid-MS Valley into the Mid-Atlantic.
### Day 5/Thursday
Some severe weather threat may materialize from the Ozark Plateau into the OH Valley in the vicinity of a surface low and attending frontal system. However, the potential for early-day storms and model variability in the particular details of the upper-air pattern evolution result in considerable uncertainty in the magnitude of the threat.
### Days 6 to 8/Friday to Sunday
A cold front on the leading edge of a prominent surface high will push through most locations east of the Rockies by Saturday morning. A strong storm or two appears possible along the front in the Mid-Atlantic on Friday. Otherwise, the influx of a drier, continental-polar air mass is expected to limit the threat for severe storms.
..Mead.. 10/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, October 15
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, October 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, October 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, October 16 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, October 17 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, October 18 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110816 SPC AC 110816
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid/upper-level low is forecast to progress from the eastern Great Basin into the central Rockies on Day 4/Wednesday. By Day 5/Thursday, there is good model consensus in the break-up of the low, with much of it being enveloped by an amplifying polar-branch trough over the north-central CONUS. By Days 6 and 7/ Friday and Saturday, there is general model agreement that a broader-scale trough will spread from the MS Valley toward the Atlantic Coast.
### Day 4/Wednesday
At least isolated severe storms appear most probable over the southern Plains during the afternoon and evening, along and ahead of a surface front extending from the southern High Plains through the mid-MS Valley. The presence of a moist air mass will support moderate instability by afternoon in areas that experience greater daytime heating. Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Wednesday morning within the warm sector, leading to uncertainty in where the effective surface front will be located by afternoon to focus more robust storm development. While no 15% contour will be included in this forecast, at least level-1/Marginal Risk probabilities will likely be required in the subsequent Day 3 forecast for this time period.
Elsewhere, a few strong to severe storms appear possible along the remaining length of the front from the mid-MS Valley into the Mid-Atlantic.
### Day 5/Thursday
Some severe weather threat may materialize from the Ozark Plateau into the OH Valley in the vicinity of a surface low and attending frontal system. However, the potential for early-day storms and model variability in the particular details of the upper-air pattern evolution result in considerable uncertainty in the magnitude of the threat.
### Days 6 to 8/Friday to Sunday
A cold front on the leading edge of a prominent surface high will push through most locations east of the Rockies by Saturday morning. A strong storm or two appears possible along the front in the Mid-Atlantic on Friday. Otherwise, the influx of a drier, continental-polar air mass is expected to limit the threat for severe storms.
..Mead.. 10/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, October 16
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, October 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, October 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, October 16 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, October 17 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, October 18 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110816 SPC AC 110816
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid/upper-level low is forecast to progress from the eastern Great Basin into the central Rockies on Day 4/Wednesday. By Day 5/Thursday, there is good model consensus in the break-up of the low, with much of it being enveloped by an amplifying polar-branch trough over the north-central CONUS. By Days 6 and 7/ Friday and Saturday, there is general model agreement that a broader-scale trough will spread from the MS Valley toward the Atlantic Coast.
### Day 4/Wednesday
At least isolated severe storms appear most probable over the southern Plains during the afternoon and evening, along and ahead of a surface front extending from the southern High Plains through the mid-MS Valley. The presence of a moist air mass will support moderate instability by afternoon in areas that experience greater daytime heating. Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Wednesday morning within the warm sector, leading to uncertainty in where the effective surface front will be located by afternoon to focus more robust storm development. While no 15% contour will be included in this forecast, at least level-1/Marginal Risk probabilities will likely be required in the subsequent Day 3 forecast for this time period.
Elsewhere, a few strong to severe storms appear possible along the remaining length of the front from the mid-MS Valley into the Mid-Atlantic.
### Day 5/Thursday
Some severe weather threat may materialize from the Ozark Plateau into the OH Valley in the vicinity of a surface low and attending frontal system. However, the potential for early-day storms and model variability in the particular details of the upper-air pattern evolution result in considerable uncertainty in the magnitude of the threat.
### Days 6 to 8/Friday to Sunday
A cold front on the leading edge of a prominent surface high will push through most locations east of the Rockies by Saturday morning. A strong storm or two appears possible along the front in the Mid-Atlantic on Friday. Otherwise, the influx of a drier, continental-polar air mass is expected to limit the threat for severe storms.
..Mead.. 10/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, October 17
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, October 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, October 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, October 16 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, October 17 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, October 18 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110816 SPC AC 110816
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid/upper-level low is forecast to progress from the eastern Great Basin into the central Rockies on Day 4/Wednesday. By Day 5/Thursday, there is good model consensus in the break-up of the low, with much of it being enveloped by an amplifying polar-branch trough over the north-central CONUS. By Days 6 and 7/ Friday and Saturday, there is general model agreement that a broader-scale trough will spread from the MS Valley toward the Atlantic Coast.
### Day 4/Wednesday
At least isolated severe storms appear most probable over the southern Plains during the afternoon and evening, along and ahead of a surface front extending from the southern High Plains through the mid-MS Valley. The presence of a moist air mass will support moderate instability by afternoon in areas that experience greater daytime heating. Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Wednesday morning within the warm sector, leading to uncertainty in where the effective surface front will be located by afternoon to focus more robust storm development. While no 15% contour will be included in this forecast, at least level-1/Marginal Risk probabilities will likely be required in the subsequent Day 3 forecast for this time period.
Elsewhere, a few strong to severe storms appear possible along the remaining length of the front from the mid-MS Valley into the Mid-Atlantic.
### Day 5/Thursday
Some severe weather threat may materialize from the Ozark Plateau into the OH Valley in the vicinity of a surface low and attending frontal system. However, the potential for early-day storms and model variability in the particular details of the upper-air pattern evolution result in considerable uncertainty in the magnitude of the threat.
### Days 6 to 8/Friday to Sunday
A cold front on the leading edge of a prominent surface high will push through most locations east of the Rockies by Saturday morning. A strong storm or two appears possible along the front in the Mid-Atlantic on Friday. Otherwise, the influx of a drier, continental-polar air mass is expected to limit the threat for severe storms.
..Mead.. 10/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, October 18
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, October 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, October 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, October 16 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, October 17 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, October 18 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110816 SPC AC 110816
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid/upper-level low is forecast to progress from the eastern Great Basin into the central Rockies on Day 4/Wednesday. By Day 5/Thursday, there is good model consensus in the break-up of the low, with much of it being enveloped by an amplifying polar-branch trough over the north-central CONUS. By Days 6 and 7/ Friday and Saturday, there is general model agreement that a broader-scale trough will spread from the MS Valley toward the Atlantic Coast.
### Day 4/Wednesday
At least isolated severe storms appear most probable over the southern Plains during the afternoon and evening, along and ahead of a surface front extending from the southern High Plains through the mid-MS Valley. The presence of a moist air mass will support moderate instability by afternoon in areas that experience greater daytime heating. Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Wednesday morning within the warm sector, leading to uncertainty in where the effective surface front will be located by afternoon to focus more robust storm development. While no 15% contour will be included in this forecast, at least level-1/Marginal Risk probabilities will likely be required in the subsequent Day 3 forecast for this time period.
Elsewhere, a few strong to severe storms appear possible along the remaining length of the front from the mid-MS Valley into the Mid-Atlantic.
### Day 5/Thursday
Some severe weather threat may materialize from the Ozark Plateau into the OH Valley in the vicinity of a surface low and attending frontal system. However, the potential for early-day storms and model variability in the particular details of the upper-air pattern evolution result in considerable uncertainty in the magnitude of the threat.
### Days 6 to 8/Friday to Sunday
A cold front on the leading edge of a prominent surface high will push through most locations east of the Rockies by Saturday morning. A strong storm or two appears possible along the front in the Mid-Atlantic on Friday. Otherwise, the influx of a drier, continental-polar air mass is expected to limit the threat for severe storms.
..Mead.. 10/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, October 11
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Monday, October 12
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, October 13
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Wednesday, October 14
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, October 15
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, October 16
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, October 17
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, October 18
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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