Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Sunday, August 23

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe/damaging winds are forecast across parts of the northern Rockies/Plains this afternoon and evening. Other thunderstorms with mainly a severe wind threat may occur over portions of the northern Great Basin.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 231252

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Valid 231300Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS AND GREAT BASIN

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe/damaging winds are forecast across parts of the northern Rockies/Plains this afternoon and evening. Other thunderstorms with mainly a severe wind threat may occur over portions of the northern Great Basin.

Great Basin into the Northern Rockies/High Plains

A mid-level shortwave trough evident on water vapor satellite imagery this morning across the Pacific Northwest will move east-northeastward today across the northern Rockies and western Canada. 40-50 kt of west-southwesterly mid-level winds will overspread the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains of central/eastern MT by this afternoon. As large-scale ascent preceding the mid-level trough spreads eastward, thunderstorms should initially form over the higher terrain of western MT. Downstream destabilization of a sufficiently moist low-level airmass will support the development of weak instability (MLCAPE generally 500-1000 J/kg) into central/eastern MT and vicinity. 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear will support a mix of multicells and supercells initially moving off the higher terrain, with both severe hail and wind gusts possible. With time, upscale growth into bowing clusters seems probable with eastward extent in MT, and an increasing risk for severe/damaging winds. Given the very well-mixed boundary layer and enhanced mid-level flow expected, some of these gusts could exceed 75 mph on an isolated basis.

A somewhat separate area of convection should develop this afternoon across parts of the northern Great Basin. While mid-level flow will be somewhat weaker across this region compared to locations farther north, the presence of generally 50s surface dewpoints across northern UT and vicinity suggests that sufficient low-level moisture exists to support robust updrafts. As daytime heating occurs and low-level lapse rates steepen, loosely organized cells/clusters should form and subsequently spread northeastward while posing a threat for scattered severe gusts.

Northern/Central Plains

A band of elevated thunderstorms is ongoing this morning from southern SD into NE, aided by modest low-level warm/moist advection. This activity should gradually weaken through the morning as the low-level jet subsides, but an isolated threat for severe hail may continue in the short term given sufficient MUCAPE and deep-layer shear to support supercells. A narrow corridor of moderate to locally strong instability is forecast to develop this afternoon across the western Dakotas/NE along/east of a lee surface trough where greater low-level moisture will reside. At least isolated thunderstorms should develop by peak afternoon heating across these areas, with west-northwesterly flow strengthening with height through mid/upper levels. Around 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear will support supercells and associated threat for large hail with any sustained surface-based convection.

Overall coverage remains uncertain given weak/nebulous large-scale ascent, but some guidance shows these cells growing upscale into a cluster or two this evening with some severe wind risk. Regardless, severe hail should be the main concern with supercells initially, and the Slight Risk has been nudged westward a little to account for the probable zone of initiation. Weaker mid-level flow is expected with southward extent into the central High Plains, but occasional hail and gusty winds could still occur with any high-based convection that develops and spreads eastward through the early evening.

Northeast Oklahoma/Southeast Kansas into the Ozarks

A weak mid-level disturbance aiding convection this morning over SD/NE will move southeastward today on the eastern periphery of upper ridging centered over the southern High Plains/Southwest. This feature, in tandem with increasing isentropic ascent associated with a modest south-southwesterly low-level jet, may aid thunderstorm development late tonight into early Monday morning across parts of northeast OK/southeast KS into the Ozarks. Instability is forecast to remain fairly weak (MUCAPE generally less than 1000 J/kg), but some clustering may occur with a low chance for gusty/locally damaging winds. No changes have been made to the Marginal Risk across this area, as confidence remains limited in both overall convective intensity and evolution.

Northeast

An upper trough/low centered over Ontario and the Great Lakes this morning will translate slowly eastward across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through the period. A corresponding weak/occluding surface low will make only modest eastward progress into Quebec through the day, with a cold front forecast to move eastward across parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast by this evening. Cloud cover is prevalent across these regions per latest visible satellite imagery. This, coupled with poor lapse rates aloft (reference 12Z observed soundings from ALB/OKX), will limit the amount of destabilization that can occur through this afternoon with filtered daytime heating. Still, enhanced south-southwesterly mid-level flow will be present today across parts of NY into New England, with around 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear supporting some updraft organization. Current expectations are for cells and clusters that develop along/ahead of this front this afternoon to pose a threat for mainly isolated damaging winds as they spread east-northeastward through this evening before eventually weakening. Marginally severe hail may also occur with the strongest cores. But, the weak instability and poor lapse rates aloft should generally limit the overall severe threat.

Southeast

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop later today along/south of a weak front draped across the lower MS Valley into the Gulf Coast states, and continuing northeastward into the Carolinas. With the exception of the Carolinas, low/mid-level flow will remain quite weak for much of the Southeast. Still, any cells which can develop may pose an isolated threat for damaging winds, as moderate to strong MLCAPE coupled with steep low-level lapse rates through daytime heating support the potential for wet microbursts. On the southern periphery of mid/upper troughing over the Great Lakes/Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, stronger flow aloft will exist across the Carolinas. This may foster some updraft organization given sufficient deep-layer shear. But, most guidance continues to show any convection that forms this afternoon across the eastern Carolinas will move quickly offshore.

Arizona

To the west of a mid/upper-level anticyclone centered over the southern Rockies/High Plains, weak southeasterly mid-level flow will exist today across southern/central AZ. Instability across this region is forecast to remain rather muted/weak owing to shallow low-level moisture. A deeply mixed boundary layer is forecast to develop with robust daytime heating, but confidence in thunderstorms developing over the higher terrain of southeast AZ and subsequent clustering into the lower deserts remains low. Even so, have maintained the Marginal Risk for severe gusts with no changes.

..Gleason/Broyles.. 08/23/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

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Outlook for Monday, August 24

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms with at least isolated severe gusts/hail are possible across the northern Great Basin to the High Plains and northern Plains Monday afternoon and evening. A couple of damaging gusts may also occur with storms in Maine and along parts of the Gulf Coast to the eastern Carolinas.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 230551

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS…THE SOUTHEAST…AND NORTHERN MAINE

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms with at least isolated severe gusts/hail are possible across the northern Great Basin to the High Plains and northern Plains Monday afternoon and evening. A couple of damaging gusts may also occur with storms in Maine and along parts of the Gulf Coast to the eastern Carolinas.

Northern Plains

A mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the Canadian prairies on Monday with some weak height falls overspreading North Dakota and northern South Dakota. A weak surface low will accompany this trough with a cold front extending into the Dakotas. Moderate to potentially strong instability is forecast ahead of this cold front. Subtle forcing from the height falls and weak convergence along the front may support isolated storms during the afternoon/evening. Long/straight hodographs would support supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. Steep lapse rates will support some potential for 75+ mph wind gusts. In addition, if any longer lived supercells can develop, 2+ inch hail is also possible. Stronger forcing, hinted at by the more amplified mid-level trough on the 00Z NAM, would support greater storm coverage and potentially greater hail/wind probabilities in later outlooks.

Northern Great Basin into the central High Plains

Widely scattered storms are forecast to develop over the higher terrain from the northern Great Basin to the central Rockies. As storms move into the adjacent Plains, where strong heating and steep lapse rates are forecast, severe wind gusts are possible. Storm mode will be single cell to multicell, with only 15 to 25 knots of shear across the region. However, the thermodynamic profile will support an isolated severe wind threat.

Southeast

Temperatures in the mid to upper 80s amid mid 70s F dewpoints will yield MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg from Louisiana to the North Carolina coast. Despite weak tropospheric flow, enough moisture-fueled buoyancy will support the potential for wet downbursts capable of damaging gusts during the afternoon.

Maine

Deep-layer ascent ahead of an ejecting mid-level shortwave trough will support scattered thunderstorm development during the late morning into the afternoon hours across central and northern Maine. A belt of 60 kt 500 mb southwesterly flow will pivot around the upper trough and overspread Maine during the afternoon, when buoyancy will be maximized. MLCAPE may exceed 750 J/kg with over 50 kts of effective bulk/speed shear. Therefore, any storms that develop may become multicellular or transient supercellular in nature, posting an isolated damaging gust/hail threat through the afternoon.

..Bentley.. 08/23/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, August 25

Outlook Summary

Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible across portions of the central Plains, the Southeast, and the Upper Midwest on Tuesday. A more focused region of severe wind gusts is possible across portions of the central High Plains.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 230728

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHWESTERN KANSAS AND VICINITY.

### SUMMARY

Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible across portions of the central Plains, the Southeast, and the Upper Midwest on Tuesday. A more focused region of severe wind gusts is possible across portions of the central High Plains.

Upper Midwest

A mid-level shortwave trough will move southeastward from the Canadian Prairies into the Upper Midwest on Tuesday. A surface low, and associated cold front, will move relatively quickly southeastward through the day. Mid 60s dewpoints are forecast ahead of this front which will result in moderate instability. Moderate flow associated with the mid-level jet streak will provide ample shear for storm organization. Storms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period near the Canadian border which may result in a somewhat messy storm mode through the day. However, farther south, more isolated storm development is possible. Given storm motion normal to the front and moderate mid-level flow, supercells will be possible. Relatively weak mid-level lapse rates and warmer temperatures aloft may limit the large hail threat somewhat.

Central Plains

A reservoir of strong instability is forecast across the central Plains where low 70s dewpoints are expected on Tuesday afternoon/evening. A weak mid-level shortwave trough (perhaps enhanced by Day 2 convection) is consistently shown among guidance which should move across this region during the afternoon/evening. The combination of a strongly unstable warm sector and forcing from this mid-level shortwave trough should result in scattered to widespread storm development Tuesday afternoon/evening. Effective shear around 30 to 35 knots should result in a combination of multicells and supercells initially with one or more clusters developing by evening as storms grow upscale. The most favorable region for a greater coverage of severe wind gusts will likely exist across northwest Kansas and vicinity where diurnal timing is favored and storm mode transition is expected.

Southeast

Strong heating is expected along the Gulf Coast south of a frontal zone. Shear will be very weak, but PWAT in excess of 2 inches and the hot air mass should support water-loaded downdrafts capable of isolated damaging wind gusts during the afternoon and early evening hours. A slightly greater coverage of storms and severe potential may exist across MS/AL downstream of early morning elevated convection forecast to develop across the Mid-Mississippi Valley.

..Bentley.. 08/23/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, August 26

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230838 SPC AC 230838

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Wednesday to D6/Friday

A mid-level trough will amplify across the Great Lakes region while the mid-level ridge maintains its amplitude across the Rockies. Within this pattern, some severe weather potential may exist as a cold front moves from the Great Lakes to the Northeast. However, the signal is not that strong and thus, it is unclear if more than an isolated threat will exist; but the evolution of this front and the instability associated with it will be monitored.

D7/Saturday to D8/Sunday

There is still a fair amount of uncertainty with the evolution of the pattern by next weekend, but a general trend toward flattening of the upper-level ridge is apparent in the deterministic, AI, and ensemble guidance next weekend. This includes moderate flow within the zonal region across the central/northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest. This period will need to be watched closely as strong instability and moderate shear appear to overlap across a relatively broad region, which should support diurnal thunderstorm activity given the flattening of the ridge. The specific timing/location of these threats will depend on evolution of the pattern and the embedded shortwave troughs within the flow. However, it is worth noting that the EC-AIFS and the AIGFS both have a signal for a more consolidated mid-level shortwave trough moving across the northern Plains on Sunday/D8, which has also been consistently shown by the EC-AIFS for the past 4 runs. If this trend continues, there may be opportunities for probabilities to be added in later outlooks.

..Bentley.. 08/23/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Thursday, August 27

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230838 SPC AC 230838

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Wednesday to D6/Friday

A mid-level trough will amplify across the Great Lakes region while the mid-level ridge maintains its amplitude across the Rockies. Within this pattern, some severe weather potential may exist as a cold front moves from the Great Lakes to the Northeast. However, the signal is not that strong and thus, it is unclear if more than an isolated threat will exist; but the evolution of this front and the instability associated with it will be monitored.

D7/Saturday to D8/Sunday

There is still a fair amount of uncertainty with the evolution of the pattern by next weekend, but a general trend toward flattening of the upper-level ridge is apparent in the deterministic, AI, and ensemble guidance next weekend. This includes moderate flow within the zonal region across the central/northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest. This period will need to be watched closely as strong instability and moderate shear appear to overlap across a relatively broad region, which should support diurnal thunderstorm activity given the flattening of the ridge. The specific timing/location of these threats will depend on evolution of the pattern and the embedded shortwave troughs within the flow. However, it is worth noting that the EC-AIFS and the AIGFS both have a signal for a more consolidated mid-level shortwave trough moving across the northern Plains on Sunday/D8, which has also been consistently shown by the EC-AIFS for the past 4 runs. If this trend continues, there may be opportunities for probabilities to be added in later outlooks.

..Bentley.. 08/23/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Friday, August 28

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230838 SPC AC 230838

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Wednesday to D6/Friday

A mid-level trough will amplify across the Great Lakes region while the mid-level ridge maintains its amplitude across the Rockies. Within this pattern, some severe weather potential may exist as a cold front moves from the Great Lakes to the Northeast. However, the signal is not that strong and thus, it is unclear if more than an isolated threat will exist; but the evolution of this front and the instability associated with it will be monitored.

D7/Saturday to D8/Sunday

There is still a fair amount of uncertainty with the evolution of the pattern by next weekend, but a general trend toward flattening of the upper-level ridge is apparent in the deterministic, AI, and ensemble guidance next weekend. This includes moderate flow within the zonal region across the central/northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest. This period will need to be watched closely as strong instability and moderate shear appear to overlap across a relatively broad region, which should support diurnal thunderstorm activity given the flattening of the ridge. The specific timing/location of these threats will depend on evolution of the pattern and the embedded shortwave troughs within the flow. However, it is worth noting that the EC-AIFS and the AIGFS both have a signal for a more consolidated mid-level shortwave trough moving across the northern Plains on Sunday/D8, which has also been consistently shown by the EC-AIFS for the past 4 runs. If this trend continues, there may be opportunities for probabilities to be added in later outlooks.

..Bentley.. 08/23/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, August 29

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230838 SPC AC 230838

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Wednesday to D6/Friday

A mid-level trough will amplify across the Great Lakes region while the mid-level ridge maintains its amplitude across the Rockies. Within this pattern, some severe weather potential may exist as a cold front moves from the Great Lakes to the Northeast. However, the signal is not that strong and thus, it is unclear if more than an isolated threat will exist; but the evolution of this front and the instability associated with it will be monitored.

D7/Saturday to D8/Sunday

There is still a fair amount of uncertainty with the evolution of the pattern by next weekend, but a general trend toward flattening of the upper-level ridge is apparent in the deterministic, AI, and ensemble guidance next weekend. This includes moderate flow within the zonal region across the central/northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest. This period will need to be watched closely as strong instability and moderate shear appear to overlap across a relatively broad region, which should support diurnal thunderstorm activity given the flattening of the ridge. The specific timing/location of these threats will depend on evolution of the pattern and the embedded shortwave troughs within the flow. However, it is worth noting that the EC-AIFS and the AIGFS both have a signal for a more consolidated mid-level shortwave trough moving across the northern Plains on Sunday/D8, which has also been consistently shown by the EC-AIFS for the past 4 runs. If this trend continues, there may be opportunities for probabilities to be added in later outlooks.

..Bentley.. 08/23/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, August 30

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230838 SPC AC 230838

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Wednesday to D6/Friday

A mid-level trough will amplify across the Great Lakes region while the mid-level ridge maintains its amplitude across the Rockies. Within this pattern, some severe weather potential may exist as a cold front moves from the Great Lakes to the Northeast. However, the signal is not that strong and thus, it is unclear if more than an isolated threat will exist; but the evolution of this front and the instability associated with it will be monitored.

D7/Saturday to D8/Sunday

There is still a fair amount of uncertainty with the evolution of the pattern by next weekend, but a general trend toward flattening of the upper-level ridge is apparent in the deterministic, AI, and ensemble guidance next weekend. This includes moderate flow within the zonal region across the central/northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest. This period will need to be watched closely as strong instability and moderate shear appear to overlap across a relatively broad region, which should support diurnal thunderstorm activity given the flattening of the ridge. The specific timing/location of these threats will depend on evolution of the pattern and the embedded shortwave troughs within the flow. However, it is worth noting that the EC-AIFS and the AIGFS both have a signal for a more consolidated mid-level shortwave trough moving across the northern Plains on Sunday/D8, which has also been consistently shown by the EC-AIFS for the past 4 runs. If this trend continues, there may be opportunities for probabilities to be added in later outlooks.

..Bentley.. 08/23/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Sunday, August 23

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Monday, August 24

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 5%

Tuesday, August 25

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Wednesday, August 26

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Thursday, August 27

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, August 28

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Saturday, August 29

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Sunday, August 30

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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