Severe Weather Outlook

show me my personal outlook →

Hayley here - Do you like ~~lofi music~~ whatever music Hayley put on and terrifyingly loud computer voices? Then stop by the 24/7 ish severe weather live stream!

* stats delayed and were probably not accurate to begin with

National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Wednesday, April 1

Thursday, April 2

Friday, April 3

Saturday, April 4

Sunday, April 5

Monday, April 6

Tuesday, April 7

Wednesday, April 8

Outlook for Wednesday, April 1

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts, large hail and a few tornadoes are likely across the southern and central Plains this afternoon and evening. Strong to severe storms are also possible from parts of the Ohio Valley, central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 5%

wind 30%

hail 30%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 011613

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026

Valid 011630Z - 021200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS…WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA…AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS

### THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts, large hail and a few tornadoes are likely across the southern and central Plains this afternoon and evening. Strong to severe storms are also possible from parts of the Ohio Valley, central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic.

OK/TX

Water vapor imagery shows a potent shortwave trough moving across northern AZ. This feature will approach the surface dryline over west TX late this afternoon and evening, resulting in rapid and widespread thunderstorm development from the eastern TX Panhandle into western OK. Activity will build eastward through the evening with a risk of very large hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes.

Northern OK/KS/Southwest MO

Latest surface analysis shows a weak boundary extending from southwest OK into southeast KS. This boundary will lift/mix northward today, resulting in rapid moistening/destabilization of the air mass. Most CAM solutions suggest the potential for the development of a few evening supercells in vicinity of this retreating boundary over north-central OK into southeast KS. Very large hail and a few tornadoes are possible.

OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic

A well-defined surface boundary currently extends from southern OH into southern PA, with widespread clouds to the north and strong heating to the south. This strengthening baroclinic zone will provide the focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon and early evening. A cluster of thunderstorms is forecast by several CAM solutions to form over northeast KY/southern OH and track eastward through the afternoon, posing a risk of damaging wind gusts. Other more isolated strong storms are possible from southeast PA into the warm/moist air mass over parts of MD/VA, with a similar risk of gusty/damaging winds in the strongest cells.

..Hart/Wendt.. 04/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

← back to overview

Outlook for Thursday, April 2

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Midwest and Great Lakes regions Thursday afternoon and evening/night. Damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes will all be possible.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 5%

wind 15%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 010559

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Midwest and Great Lakes regions Thursday afternoon and evening/night. Damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes will all be possible.

Synopsis

A surface cyclone is forecast to deepen as it lifts northeastward from the southern/central Plains into the upper MS Valley. This will help advect a plume of seasonally rich moisture (upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints) northward into the Midwest and Great Lakes regions through the day and into the overnight hours. Residual convection emanating out of the mid-MS Valley during the morning hours is forecast to re-intensify by mid to late afternoon. Concurrently, a second round of thunderstorms is anticipated along the synoptic cold front along the MS Valley by late afternoon. Both rounds of thunderstorms will pose a risk of severe winds, tornadoes, and sporadic large hail as the regional wind field intensifies through the day.

Midwest/Great Lakes

Latest guidance continues to depict broken convective bands (residual from overnight convection over the Plains) moving out of central and northern MO during the late morning/early afternoon hours. As the synoptic cyclone lift north, moisture advection will likely keep pace with the convection given 20-25 mph surface winds and 45-55 knot flow within the lowest kilometer. Diluted diurnal heating should support adequate (albeit very modest) destabilization for a re-intensification of convection by the mid-afternoon hours. Despite very limited buoyancy (MLCAPE values around 500 J/kg), the combination of very strong low-level flow and 250-300 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH will support organized lines with an attendant threat for severe winds and tornadoes. The northern and eastern extent of the wind/tornado threat remains somewhat nebulous and will be conditional on the quality of downstream destabilization.

Mid/Upper MS River Valley

Air mass recover appears likely in the wake of early-morning convection across northern MO into IA/western IL with most forecast guidance depicting MLCAPE values upwards of 1000 to perhaps 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Forcing along the cold front to the south of the surface low will likely support semi-discrete convection that should propagate east/northeast into northern IL by late afternoon and evening. A combination of regionally higher buoyancy and strong low-level flow (similar 0-1 km SRH values between 250-300 m2/s2 are expected) will support a threat for semi-discrete cells capable of large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes (including the potential for significant tornadoes).

Mid-South

A moist and weakly capped environment across the Mid-South/lower OH Valley will support convection through peak heating. However, increasing displacement from stronger synoptic ascent and a lack of more focused mesoscale ascent will likely result in more isolated thunderstorm coverage. Nonetheless, deep-layer wind shear will support organized convection, including the potential for a supercell or two through early evening.

..Moore.. 04/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

← back to overview

Outlook for Friday, April 3

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are expected Friday afternoon and into the evening hours across Iowa southward into the southern Plains. Very large hail, severe winds, and tornadoes will be possible.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 30%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 011136

Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 AM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI

CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT THUNDER LINE ORIENTATION

SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are expected Friday afternoon and into the evening hours across Iowa southward into the southern Plains. Very large hail, severe winds, and tornadoes will be possible.

Synopsis

Medium and long-range guidance continue to show reasonably good alignment in the progression of an upper wave into the central CONUS through the day Friday into early Saturday. Ahead of this wave, robust cyclogenesis is anticipated across the central Plains along a residual baroclinic zone that should be draped from the Plains eastward into the OH Valley in the wake of a leading system on Wed/Thu. Northward advection of seasonally rich low-level moisture (dewpoints in the low 60s) ahead of the intensifying low and attendant cold front will establish a fairly broad warm sector from the Midwest southward into the southern Plains. Strong to severe thunderstorms will likely develop along and ahead of the cold front through late afternoon and early evening with a threat for all convective hazards.

Iowa/northern Missouri

The most robust convective environment will likely emerge across northern MO into southern and central IA by late Friday afternoon. Here, strong moisture return behind a northward lifting warm front should support MLCAPE values upwards of 2000-2500 J/kg. Strong synoptic ascent ahead of the surface low and ejecting upper trough will erode warm sector inhibition, and closer proximity to the upper jet will allow for 35-45 knot effective bulk shear values nearly orthogonal to the approaching cold front. This should favor initially discrete cells capable of large hail as well as tornadoes given forecast effective SRH values on the order of 200-300 m2/s2. With time, strong frontal forcing should promote upscale growth with an increase in the severe wind threat, though some extended-range CAM guidance hints a line-preceding supercells within the weakly capped warm sector (though confidence in this scenario is low). Regardless, convection traversing the best CAPE/shear parameter space in the region should yield a higher potential for severe thunderstorms, warranting the introduction of 30% risk probabilities.

Kansas into Oklahoma

Further south/southwest, rapid upscale growth is anticipated along a southeastward pushing cold front by late afternoon from eastern KS into northern OK. Storm motions and deep-layer flow more parallel to the initiating boundary may result in initially slow southeastward propagation of the convective line, though more substantial progression of the line is likely by early evening as the nocturnal jet slowly strengthens. Regardless, a severe wind threat appears likely with this activity.

Southwest Oklahoma into Western Texas

A dryline will likely be draped from western OK southward into western TX. Although forcing for ascent will be weak with southward extent, weak capping and ample diurnal heating should support at least isolated thunderstorm development by late afternoon. While low-level wind shear may be somewhat marginal, forecast soundings depict elongated hodographs favorable for splitting supercells capable of producing large to very large hail.

..Moore.. 04/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

← back to overview

Outlook for Saturday, April 4

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, April 4	predictability too low
Day 5	Sunday, April 5	predictability too low
Day 6	Monday, April 6	predictability too low
Day 7	Tuesday, April 7	potential too low
Day 8	Wednesday, April 8	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010827 SPC AC 010827

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 AM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

Some degree of severe thunderstorm potential is expected to persist through the upcoming weekend across portions of the Great Lakes/OH Valley and possibly across the Mid-Atlantic. Heading into next week, a combination of building surface high pressure behind a synoptic cold front and the re-establishment of an upper ridge over the West will limit severe weather chances.

D4/Saturday - Great Lakes/OH Valley

An upper wave and attendant surface low are forecast to quickly translate from the Plains into the Great Lakes region late Friday through Saturday. Moisture return immediately ahead of a trailing cold front will likely support some degree of destabilization Saturday afternoon across the Great Lakes/OH Valley; however, long-range ensemble guidance does not show high probability in surface/mixed-layer buoyancy values exceeding 1000 J/kg. Nonetheless, strong flow within the lowest 1-2 km will likely support a severe wind threat with any convection that can become sufficiently intense. While some severe risk is anticipated, the combination of a modest thermodynamic environment and disagreement regarding the timing/progression of the front through peak heating precludes risk probabilities.

D5/Sunday - Mid-Atlantic

The synoptic cold front is forecast to push off the East Coast by late Sunday, though long-range guidance shows disagreement regarding the timing of the front. Slower solutions, such as the 00z ECMWF, suggest that the frontal passage may occur during the afternoon hours when diurnal destabilization will be greatest. Strong low-level flow coupled with robust broad-scale ascent ahead of the primary upper wave may support a band of strong to severe thunderstorms. However, the general consensus among guidance at this time is that this scenario is likely the outlier solution.

..Moore.. 04/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Sunday, April 5

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, April 4	predictability too low
Day 5	Sunday, April 5	predictability too low
Day 6	Monday, April 6	predictability too low
Day 7	Tuesday, April 7	potential too low
Day 8	Wednesday, April 8	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010827 SPC AC 010827

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 AM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

Some degree of severe thunderstorm potential is expected to persist through the upcoming weekend across portions of the Great Lakes/OH Valley and possibly across the Mid-Atlantic. Heading into next week, a combination of building surface high pressure behind a synoptic cold front and the re-establishment of an upper ridge over the West will limit severe weather chances.

D4/Saturday - Great Lakes/OH Valley

An upper wave and attendant surface low are forecast to quickly translate from the Plains into the Great Lakes region late Friday through Saturday. Moisture return immediately ahead of a trailing cold front will likely support some degree of destabilization Saturday afternoon across the Great Lakes/OH Valley; however, long-range ensemble guidance does not show high probability in surface/mixed-layer buoyancy values exceeding 1000 J/kg. Nonetheless, strong flow within the lowest 1-2 km will likely support a severe wind threat with any convection that can become sufficiently intense. While some severe risk is anticipated, the combination of a modest thermodynamic environment and disagreement regarding the timing/progression of the front through peak heating precludes risk probabilities.

D5/Sunday - Mid-Atlantic

The synoptic cold front is forecast to push off the East Coast by late Sunday, though long-range guidance shows disagreement regarding the timing of the front. Slower solutions, such as the 00z ECMWF, suggest that the frontal passage may occur during the afternoon hours when diurnal destabilization will be greatest. Strong low-level flow coupled with robust broad-scale ascent ahead of the primary upper wave may support a band of strong to severe thunderstorms. However, the general consensus among guidance at this time is that this scenario is likely the outlier solution.

..Moore.. 04/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Monday, April 6

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, April 4	predictability too low
Day 5	Sunday, April 5	predictability too low
Day 6	Monday, April 6	predictability too low
Day 7	Tuesday, April 7	potential too low
Day 8	Wednesday, April 8	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010827 SPC AC 010827

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 AM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

Some degree of severe thunderstorm potential is expected to persist through the upcoming weekend across portions of the Great Lakes/OH Valley and possibly across the Mid-Atlantic. Heading into next week, a combination of building surface high pressure behind a synoptic cold front and the re-establishment of an upper ridge over the West will limit severe weather chances.

D4/Saturday - Great Lakes/OH Valley

An upper wave and attendant surface low are forecast to quickly translate from the Plains into the Great Lakes region late Friday through Saturday. Moisture return immediately ahead of a trailing cold front will likely support some degree of destabilization Saturday afternoon across the Great Lakes/OH Valley; however, long-range ensemble guidance does not show high probability in surface/mixed-layer buoyancy values exceeding 1000 J/kg. Nonetheless, strong flow within the lowest 1-2 km will likely support a severe wind threat with any convection that can become sufficiently intense. While some severe risk is anticipated, the combination of a modest thermodynamic environment and disagreement regarding the timing/progression of the front through peak heating precludes risk probabilities.

D5/Sunday - Mid-Atlantic

The synoptic cold front is forecast to push off the East Coast by late Sunday, though long-range guidance shows disagreement regarding the timing of the front. Slower solutions, such as the 00z ECMWF, suggest that the frontal passage may occur during the afternoon hours when diurnal destabilization will be greatest. Strong low-level flow coupled with robust broad-scale ascent ahead of the primary upper wave may support a band of strong to severe thunderstorms. However, the general consensus among guidance at this time is that this scenario is likely the outlier solution.

..Moore.. 04/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Tuesday, April 7

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, April 4	predictability too low
Day 5	Sunday, April 5	predictability too low
Day 6	Monday, April 6	predictability too low
Day 7	Tuesday, April 7	potential too low
Day 8	Wednesday, April 8	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010827 SPC AC 010827

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 AM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

Some degree of severe thunderstorm potential is expected to persist through the upcoming weekend across portions of the Great Lakes/OH Valley and possibly across the Mid-Atlantic. Heading into next week, a combination of building surface high pressure behind a synoptic cold front and the re-establishment of an upper ridge over the West will limit severe weather chances.

D4/Saturday - Great Lakes/OH Valley

An upper wave and attendant surface low are forecast to quickly translate from the Plains into the Great Lakes region late Friday through Saturday. Moisture return immediately ahead of a trailing cold front will likely support some degree of destabilization Saturday afternoon across the Great Lakes/OH Valley; however, long-range ensemble guidance does not show high probability in surface/mixed-layer buoyancy values exceeding 1000 J/kg. Nonetheless, strong flow within the lowest 1-2 km will likely support a severe wind threat with any convection that can become sufficiently intense. While some severe risk is anticipated, the combination of a modest thermodynamic environment and disagreement regarding the timing/progression of the front through peak heating precludes risk probabilities.

D5/Sunday - Mid-Atlantic

The synoptic cold front is forecast to push off the East Coast by late Sunday, though long-range guidance shows disagreement regarding the timing of the front. Slower solutions, such as the 00z ECMWF, suggest that the frontal passage may occur during the afternoon hours when diurnal destabilization will be greatest. Strong low-level flow coupled with robust broad-scale ascent ahead of the primary upper wave may support a band of strong to severe thunderstorms. However, the general consensus among guidance at this time is that this scenario is likely the outlier solution.

..Moore.. 04/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Wednesday, April 8

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, April 4	predictability too low
Day 5	Sunday, April 5	predictability too low
Day 6	Monday, April 6	predictability too low
Day 7	Tuesday, April 7	potential too low
Day 8	Wednesday, April 8	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010827 SPC AC 010827

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 AM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

Some degree of severe thunderstorm potential is expected to persist through the upcoming weekend across portions of the Great Lakes/OH Valley and possibly across the Mid-Atlantic. Heading into next week, a combination of building surface high pressure behind a synoptic cold front and the re-establishment of an upper ridge over the West will limit severe weather chances.

D4/Saturday - Great Lakes/OH Valley

An upper wave and attendant surface low are forecast to quickly translate from the Plains into the Great Lakes region late Friday through Saturday. Moisture return immediately ahead of a trailing cold front will likely support some degree of destabilization Saturday afternoon across the Great Lakes/OH Valley; however, long-range ensemble guidance does not show high probability in surface/mixed-layer buoyancy values exceeding 1000 J/kg. Nonetheless, strong flow within the lowest 1-2 km will likely support a severe wind threat with any convection that can become sufficiently intense. While some severe risk is anticipated, the combination of a modest thermodynamic environment and disagreement regarding the timing/progression of the front through peak heating precludes risk probabilities.

D5/Sunday - Mid-Atlantic

The synoptic cold front is forecast to push off the East Coast by late Sunday, though long-range guidance shows disagreement regarding the timing of the front. Slower solutions, such as the 00z ECMWF, suggest that the frontal passage may occur during the afternoon hours when diurnal destabilization will be greatest. Strong low-level flow coupled with robust broad-scale ascent ahead of the primary upper wave may support a band of strong to severe thunderstorms. However, the general consensus among guidance at this time is that this scenario is likely the outlier solution.

..Moore.. 04/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, April 1: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 30%; WIND: 30%
Thursday, April 2: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Friday, April 3: ANY SEVERE: 30%
Saturday, April 4: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, April 5: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, April 6: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, April 7: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, April 8: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Your Severe Outlook

Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.

Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.

Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.

Severe Weather Outlook Amazon link →

About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.