Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, January 1
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 011619
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 AM CST Thu Jan 01 2026
Valid 011630Z - 021200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.
California
A shortwave trough will continue to move inland along coastal north-central California early today, and toward the Sierra and other parts of Nevada late this afternoon into tonight. With minimal buoyancy noted in 12z observed soundings, convective potential will further diminish across far southern California coastal areas today via frontal passage. More immediately preceding the aforementioned shortwave trough, potential for a few low-topped thunderstorms will exist through the afternoon across the central Valley.
..Guyer/Wendt.. 01/01/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Friday, January 2
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Friday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 011712
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CST Thu Jan 01 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Friday.
Central Gulf Coast and Deep South
A low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough will move from the south-central Plains toward the TN Valley through the period, while a somewhat more vigorous shortwave progresses east-southeastward from the Four Corners region toward the lower MS Valley. The combination of these features will result in an elongated surface low that will extend from northern MS/AL toward southern LA by Friday evening.
Returning low-level moisture will result in a somewhat conditionally favorable environment Friday afternoon from parts of LA into southern MS, as MLCAPE increases to around 500 J/kg amid strengthening deep-layer shear. However, poor midlevel lapse rates and generally weak ascent across the warm sector may tend to limit surface-based storm potential, with most guidance showing no diurnal development across this area. A strengthening low-level jet will aid in the development of elevated convection Friday evening, mainly across parts of central/northern MS/AL/GA. Weak buoyancy should tend to limit the organized severe threat with any elevated storms. Convection may also tend to increase along the immediate central Gulf Coast near the end of the period, but warm midlevel temperatures are expected to limit storm depth and intensity in this area through 12Z Saturday morning.
Northern CA into southwest OR
A deep mid/upper-level trough and embedded deep-layer cyclone will gradually approach the central and northern Pacific Coast through the period. Within the large-scale trough, an embedded vorticity maximum is forecast to approach northern CA and southwest OR by mid to late evening. Colder temperatures aloft and some steepening of midlevel lapse rates will overspread the region as this vorticity maximum moves through, which will increase the threat for sporadic lightning flashes with any stronger convective elements.
Most CAM guidance depicts development of a narrow rain band in association with the lead vorticity maximum, which moves over immediate coastal regions between 03-06Z. This band may be coincident with gusty/locally damaging winds, given the strengthening background wind field (50+ kt at 850 mb). However, with stronger cooling aloft and steepening of low-level lapse rates generally only expected in the wake of this band, the extent to which any deeper convective processes contribute to wind-damage potential is uncertain and may remain limited.
..Dean.. 01/01/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Saturday, January 3
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast on Saturday, and the Sacramento Valley to coastal northern California-southwest Oregon during the late afternoon to evening.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 010828
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Thu Jan 01 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHERN CA TO COASTAL SOUTHWEST OR
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast on Saturday, and the Sacramento Valley to coastal northern California-southwest Oregon during the late afternoon to evening.
Southeast
A lower-amplitude shortwave trough should progress east across the Lower MS Valley on Saturday morning and off the South Atlantic Coast by Saturday night. Attendant surface cyclone should remain weak and track from central AL to off coastal SC by evening. Timing of large-scale ascent with the trough should yield increasing convective coverage by late morning to midday, focused along the northeast Gulf Coast to the Savannah Valley. Much of the region should remain within the MLCAPE gradient as a plume of moderate buoyancy becomes established over the northwest Gulf to central Gulf Coast. Guidance consensus suggests that low-level winds may gradually dampen through the day and become displaced east of richer boundary-layer moisture as the surface low moves towards the coast. With a predominately west-southwesterly wind profile, deep-layer speed shear should be the primary driver of organized convection. A mix of all hazards appears plausible, although a corridor of greater damaging wind potential may be evident in later outlooks.
Northern CA to coastal southwest OR
Guidance appears to be converging towards multiple shortwave impulses ejecting northeast from a large-scale trough off the West Coast. The more vigorous impulse should impinge on coastal OR around Saturday evening, while a separate impulse dampens from the Bay Area to the Sierra NV Mountains on Saturday afternoon. The southern impulse should be favorably timed with afternoon boundary-layer heating over the Sacramento Valley, where meager MLCAPE of 250-500 J/kg may develop. Amid a swath of strong mid-level south-southwesterlies, an elongated hodograph could favor splitting weak supercell structures that pose a risk for a brief tornado and small hail. The northern impulse should be accompanied by very strong low-level southerlies from 60-70 kts at 850 mb. While buoyancy will remain scant, low-topped convection along the northern CA to southwest OR coast could pose a threat for severe gusts.
..Grams.. 01/01/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Sunday, January 4
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, January 4 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, January 5 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, January 6 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, January 7 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, January 8 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010933 SPC AC 010933
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CST Thu Jan 01 2026
Valid 041200Z - 091200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe potential appears low through much of the period, with an increase possible late next week. While run-to-run predictability has been poor, latest guidance appears to be trending somewhat more consistently with the evolution of an upper trough off the West Coast. This feature may evolve as a lower-latitude wave across Baja CA and northern Mexico, or along the international border in the Southwest States, before eventually emerging near TX. While predictability is low for spatiotemporal aspects of this wave, it may eventually interact with a modifying warm-moist sector from the western Gulf into the South-Central States. SPC-CSU GEFS ML probs highlight a 5 percent on D8/Thursday (although seemingly biased too far north). Meanwhile, NSSL GEFS ML V1.2 probs highlight only a 2 percent on D8, but have a 10 percent on D9/Friday.
..Grams.. 01/01/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, January 5
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, January 4 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, January 5 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, January 6 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, January 7 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, January 8 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010933 SPC AC 010933
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CST Thu Jan 01 2026
Valid 041200Z - 091200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe potential appears low through much of the period, with an increase possible late next week. While run-to-run predictability has been poor, latest guidance appears to be trending somewhat more consistently with the evolution of an upper trough off the West Coast. This feature may evolve as a lower-latitude wave across Baja CA and northern Mexico, or along the international border in the Southwest States, before eventually emerging near TX. While predictability is low for spatiotemporal aspects of this wave, it may eventually interact with a modifying warm-moist sector from the western Gulf into the South-Central States. SPC-CSU GEFS ML probs highlight a 5 percent on D8/Thursday (although seemingly biased too far north). Meanwhile, NSSL GEFS ML V1.2 probs highlight only a 2 percent on D8, but have a 10 percent on D9/Friday.
..Grams.. 01/01/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, January 6
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, January 4 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, January 5 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, January 6 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, January 7 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, January 8 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010933 SPC AC 010933
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CST Thu Jan 01 2026
Valid 041200Z - 091200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe potential appears low through much of the period, with an increase possible late next week. While run-to-run predictability has been poor, latest guidance appears to be trending somewhat more consistently with the evolution of an upper trough off the West Coast. This feature may evolve as a lower-latitude wave across Baja CA and northern Mexico, or along the international border in the Southwest States, before eventually emerging near TX. While predictability is low for spatiotemporal aspects of this wave, it may eventually interact with a modifying warm-moist sector from the western Gulf into the South-Central States. SPC-CSU GEFS ML probs highlight a 5 percent on D8/Thursday (although seemingly biased too far north). Meanwhile, NSSL GEFS ML V1.2 probs highlight only a 2 percent on D8, but have a 10 percent on D9/Friday.
..Grams.. 01/01/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, January 7
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, January 4 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, January 5 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, January 6 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, January 7 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, January 8 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010933 SPC AC 010933
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CST Thu Jan 01 2026
Valid 041200Z - 091200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe potential appears low through much of the period, with an increase possible late next week. While run-to-run predictability has been poor, latest guidance appears to be trending somewhat more consistently with the evolution of an upper trough off the West Coast. This feature may evolve as a lower-latitude wave across Baja CA and northern Mexico, or along the international border in the Southwest States, before eventually emerging near TX. While predictability is low for spatiotemporal aspects of this wave, it may eventually interact with a modifying warm-moist sector from the western Gulf into the South-Central States. SPC-CSU GEFS ML probs highlight a 5 percent on D8/Thursday (although seemingly biased too far north). Meanwhile, NSSL GEFS ML V1.2 probs highlight only a 2 percent on D8, but have a 10 percent on D9/Friday.
..Grams.. 01/01/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, January 8
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, January 4 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, January 5 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, January 6 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, January 7 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, January 8 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010933 SPC AC 010933
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CST Thu Jan 01 2026
Valid 041200Z - 091200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe potential appears low through much of the period, with an increase possible late next week. While run-to-run predictability has been poor, latest guidance appears to be trending somewhat more consistently with the evolution of an upper trough off the West Coast. This feature may evolve as a lower-latitude wave across Baja CA and northern Mexico, or along the international border in the Southwest States, before eventually emerging near TX. While predictability is low for spatiotemporal aspects of this wave, it may eventually interact with a modifying warm-moist sector from the western Gulf into the South-Central States. SPC-CSU GEFS ML probs highlight a 5 percent on D8/Thursday (although seemingly biased too far north). Meanwhile, NSSL GEFS ML V1.2 probs highlight only a 2 percent on D8, but have a 10 percent on D9/Friday.
..Grams.. 01/01/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, January 1
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Friday, January 2
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Saturday, January 3
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Sunday, January 4
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, January 5
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, January 6
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, January 7
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, January 8
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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