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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Sunday, August 9

Outlook Summary

Scattered damaging winds are possible today into this evening from southern Wisconsin eastward across parts of northern Illinois, southern Lower Michigan, northwest Ohio, and northern Indiana. Damaging wind and hail may also occur across portions of the Dakotas tonight.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 091556

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1056 AM CDT Sun Aug 09 2026

Valid 091630Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF THE MIDWEST…AND TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS.

### SUMMARY

Scattered damaging winds are possible today into this evening from southern Wisconsin eastward across parts of northern Illinois, southern Lower Michigan, northwest Ohio, and northern Indiana. Damaging wind and hail may also occur across portions of the Dakotas tonight.

Midwest

A persistent cluster of thunderstorms over southern WI appears likely to continue southeastward through much of the day into parts of IL/MI/IN and eventually OH. This activity will track near a NW-SE oriented baroclinic zone, with dewpoints in the lower 70s to the south. Eventually, low-level lapse rates will become sufficiently steep to support damaging wind gusts along the leading edge of the storms. Later tonight, strengthening southwesterly low-level winds will enhance warm advection and lift over parts of IL/IN, potentially leading to another round of strong/severe storms capable of damaging winds and hail after 06z.

Dakotas

12z model guidance continues to decrease the confidence in overnight severe storms, with some CAM solutions showing no thunderstorms. Therefore have made the SLGT area smaller and focused where there is highest confidence in isolated storms. Forecast soundings continue to indicate steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep shear, providing a conditional risk of supercells if convection can be sustained.

AZ

Thunderstorms are once again predicted to form along the Rim and track westward toward the PHX metro area this evening. The strength of the steering flow, instability, and mid-level moisture all appear favorable for a severe risk. However, mesoscale details of the evolution of the storms over high terrain will dictate the eventual risk.

..Hart/Weinman.. 08/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

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Outlook for Monday, August 10

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible Monday afternoon and evening from northern Illinois eastward into western Pennsylvania. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible from parts of the central and northern Plains into the Midwest, with scattered strong storms over southern Arizona.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 091737

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sun Aug 09 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ROUGHLY FROM ILLINOIS EASTWARD INTO PENNSYLVANIA

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible Monday afternoon and evening from northern Illinois eastward into western Pennsylvania. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible from parts of the central and northern Plains into the Midwest, with scattered strong storms over southern Arizona.

From northern IL eastward into PA

A leading shortwave trough may support early day thunderstorms over portions of NY and PA, though probably not immediately severe. Some chance exists for re-development from southern New England into NJ during the afternoon as a surface trough develops, and at least isolated severe activity is possible. Additional afternoon storms may develop across the remainder of NY and PA as instability develops behind the initial wave with areas of strong gusts and marginal hail.

While isolated wind/hail may occur during the early to mid afternoon as the air mass becomes uncapped, a greater coverage of severe storms is expected during the late afternoon and into the evening from southern WI/IL into IN and OH. Here, a large area of strong instability will develop, with a persistent/deepening boundary layer theta-e plume out of the southwest. The high PWAT, relatively steep midlevel lapse rates, and deep layer shear of 40-50 kt will support supercell development, with possible bowing structures with time. Large hail, perhaps an isolated tornado, and damaging winds will be possible.

Northern Plains

Southeast surface winds will maintain 60s F dewpoints into NE and SD during the afternoon as strong heating occurs near a surface trough over the High Plains/Black Hills. This will occur beneath moderate westerly flow aloft, which will elongate hodographs and produce favorable deep-layer shear for long-lived cells or bows. Storm coverage is uncertain, but the conditional risk for large damaging hail and wind is high. At least isolated cells are expected to form near the Black Hills and into western NE where heating will be strong, with perhaps greater storm chances increasing after 00Z into the central Dakotas with the aid of a modest nocturnal low-level jet.

Southern AZ

Substantial moisture will remain over the area Monday, with PWAT over 1.25" and areas of 60s F dewpoints. Westerly surface winds are forecast to develop during the afternoon over southern AZ, which when combined with the deep easterlies aloft, will support westward-propagating cells. Storms should form near the Rim and over the higher terrain of southeast AZ, with locally severe gusts as activity moves across the lowlands. A storm or two could potentially produce small hail as well as deep-layer effective shear will be over 30 kt.

..Jewell.. 08/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, August 11

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible on Tuesday over parts of the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible from parts of the central and northern Plains into the Midwest.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 091933

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sun Aug 09 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM ILLINOIS TO THE APPALACHIANS

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible on Tuesday over parts of the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible from parts of the central and northern Plains into the Midwest.

From IL into western VA/NC

Bouts of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Tuesday, though timing and position of the greatest threat corridor is uncertain. Areas of thunderstorms may be ongoing early on Tuesday across parts of the OH Valley region, and strong gusts cannot be ruled out at that time. Daytime heating and a weak surface trough may aid re-development across the Appalachians and into VA/NC, with deep-layer mean winds supporting mobile clusters of storms producing damaging gusts.

Late afternoon and evening development should occur farther west as west/southwest boundary layer winds maintain a warm and unstable air mass into IL/IN/OH. The greatest threat of a damaging wind corridor appears to be in these areas, with MUCAPE over 3000 J/kg, and potentially 40-50 kt deep-layer shear. Depending on how mesoscale factors resolve, supercells will be possible, but the primary risk is expected to be potentially widespread damaging winds. Predictability is currently low, but categorical risk upgrades cannot be ruled out in later outlooks.

Northern Plains

Storms are expected to develop late in the day over the western Dakotas near a surface trough over the High Plains. Southeasterly surface winds and 60s F dewpoints will yield moderate instability, and favorable 40-50 kt deep layer shear. The elongated mid to upper hodographs should aid supercell and hail potential, with bowing structures producing damaging wind during the evening.

AZ

An easterly flow regime will persist on Tuesday, with scattered afternoon storms over the higher terrain moving generally westward. Locally damaging gusts may occur with the stronger outflows.

..Jewell.. 08/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, August 12

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090858 SPC AC 090858

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sun Aug 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6

From Wednesday to Friday, a broad mid-level cyclonic flow pattern is forecast to remain in place across the Great Lakes and the Northeast, as a ridge moves eastward from the northern Rockies into the upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to become quasi-stationary from the central and northern Plains into the mid Missouri and Ohio Valleys. Low-level convergence near this front will be a focus for convective development each day.

On Wednesday, model forecasts suggest that scattered thunderstorms will most likely develop Wednesday afternoon along an axis of moderate instability from western Nebraska into southwestern South Dakota. The storms will be supported by a mid-level shortwave trough moving across the north-central U.S. Moderate deep-layer shear near the instability axis should support a severe threat during the afternoon and evening. The models also suggest that a convective cluster will form within a very moist and unstable airmass in the central Appalachians Wednesday afternoon, where a wind-damage threat will be possible.

On Thursday, the most favored corridor for convective development is forecast from eastern Nebraska into central Illinois. However, the models suggest that scattered convective coverage could be concentrated overnight as low-level flow increases across the region. A severe threat could develop during the day but would remain relatively isolated due to a lack of storm coverage. An isolated severe threat could also develop across parts of the central and northern High Plains during the afternoon. However, storms there will also likely be isolated due to a shortwave ridge aloft.

On Friday, thunderstorm swill also be possible from the central Plains eastward into the Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening. However, the most favored locations are likely to be determined by outflow boundaries associated with the previous day's convection. For this reason, uncertainty is substantial on Friday.

Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8

Over the weekend, a mid-level shortwave ridge is forecast to move across the north-central U.S., as west-northwesterly flow remains in the Northeast. An axis of instability is forecast from the central Plains into the Ohio Valley, which will be a focus for thunderstorm development. It appears that an isolated severe threat could develop along and near the instability axis each afternoon and evening. However, uncertainty is considerable concerning the details of any potential scenario.

..Broyles.. 08/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Thursday, August 13

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090858 SPC AC 090858

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sun Aug 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6

From Wednesday to Friday, a broad mid-level cyclonic flow pattern is forecast to remain in place across the Great Lakes and the Northeast, as a ridge moves eastward from the northern Rockies into the upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to become quasi-stationary from the central and northern Plains into the mid Missouri and Ohio Valleys. Low-level convergence near this front will be a focus for convective development each day.

On Wednesday, model forecasts suggest that scattered thunderstorms will most likely develop Wednesday afternoon along an axis of moderate instability from western Nebraska into southwestern South Dakota. The storms will be supported by a mid-level shortwave trough moving across the north-central U.S. Moderate deep-layer shear near the instability axis should support a severe threat during the afternoon and evening. The models also suggest that a convective cluster will form within a very moist and unstable airmass in the central Appalachians Wednesday afternoon, where a wind-damage threat will be possible.

On Thursday, the most favored corridor for convective development is forecast from eastern Nebraska into central Illinois. However, the models suggest that scattered convective coverage could be concentrated overnight as low-level flow increases across the region. A severe threat could develop during the day but would remain relatively isolated due to a lack of storm coverage. An isolated severe threat could also develop across parts of the central and northern High Plains during the afternoon. However, storms there will also likely be isolated due to a shortwave ridge aloft.

On Friday, thunderstorm swill also be possible from the central Plains eastward into the Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening. However, the most favored locations are likely to be determined by outflow boundaries associated with the previous day's convection. For this reason, uncertainty is substantial on Friday.

Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8

Over the weekend, a mid-level shortwave ridge is forecast to move across the north-central U.S., as west-northwesterly flow remains in the Northeast. An axis of instability is forecast from the central Plains into the Ohio Valley, which will be a focus for thunderstorm development. It appears that an isolated severe threat could develop along and near the instability axis each afternoon and evening. However, uncertainty is considerable concerning the details of any potential scenario.

..Broyles.. 08/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Friday, August 14

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090858 SPC AC 090858

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sun Aug 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6

From Wednesday to Friday, a broad mid-level cyclonic flow pattern is forecast to remain in place across the Great Lakes and the Northeast, as a ridge moves eastward from the northern Rockies into the upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to become quasi-stationary from the central and northern Plains into the mid Missouri and Ohio Valleys. Low-level convergence near this front will be a focus for convective development each day.

On Wednesday, model forecasts suggest that scattered thunderstorms will most likely develop Wednesday afternoon along an axis of moderate instability from western Nebraska into southwestern South Dakota. The storms will be supported by a mid-level shortwave trough moving across the north-central U.S. Moderate deep-layer shear near the instability axis should support a severe threat during the afternoon and evening. The models also suggest that a convective cluster will form within a very moist and unstable airmass in the central Appalachians Wednesday afternoon, where a wind-damage threat will be possible.

On Thursday, the most favored corridor for convective development is forecast from eastern Nebraska into central Illinois. However, the models suggest that scattered convective coverage could be concentrated overnight as low-level flow increases across the region. A severe threat could develop during the day but would remain relatively isolated due to a lack of storm coverage. An isolated severe threat could also develop across parts of the central and northern High Plains during the afternoon. However, storms there will also likely be isolated due to a shortwave ridge aloft.

On Friday, thunderstorm swill also be possible from the central Plains eastward into the Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening. However, the most favored locations are likely to be determined by outflow boundaries associated with the previous day's convection. For this reason, uncertainty is substantial on Friday.

Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8

Over the weekend, a mid-level shortwave ridge is forecast to move across the north-central U.S., as west-northwesterly flow remains in the Northeast. An axis of instability is forecast from the central Plains into the Ohio Valley, which will be a focus for thunderstorm development. It appears that an isolated severe threat could develop along and near the instability axis each afternoon and evening. However, uncertainty is considerable concerning the details of any potential scenario.

..Broyles.. 08/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, August 15

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090858 SPC AC 090858

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sun Aug 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6

From Wednesday to Friday, a broad mid-level cyclonic flow pattern is forecast to remain in place across the Great Lakes and the Northeast, as a ridge moves eastward from the northern Rockies into the upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to become quasi-stationary from the central and northern Plains into the mid Missouri and Ohio Valleys. Low-level convergence near this front will be a focus for convective development each day.

On Wednesday, model forecasts suggest that scattered thunderstorms will most likely develop Wednesday afternoon along an axis of moderate instability from western Nebraska into southwestern South Dakota. The storms will be supported by a mid-level shortwave trough moving across the north-central U.S. Moderate deep-layer shear near the instability axis should support a severe threat during the afternoon and evening. The models also suggest that a convective cluster will form within a very moist and unstable airmass in the central Appalachians Wednesday afternoon, where a wind-damage threat will be possible.

On Thursday, the most favored corridor for convective development is forecast from eastern Nebraska into central Illinois. However, the models suggest that scattered convective coverage could be concentrated overnight as low-level flow increases across the region. A severe threat could develop during the day but would remain relatively isolated due to a lack of storm coverage. An isolated severe threat could also develop across parts of the central and northern High Plains during the afternoon. However, storms there will also likely be isolated due to a shortwave ridge aloft.

On Friday, thunderstorm swill also be possible from the central Plains eastward into the Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening. However, the most favored locations are likely to be determined by outflow boundaries associated with the previous day's convection. For this reason, uncertainty is substantial on Friday.

Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8

Over the weekend, a mid-level shortwave ridge is forecast to move across the north-central U.S., as west-northwesterly flow remains in the Northeast. An axis of instability is forecast from the central Plains into the Ohio Valley, which will be a focus for thunderstorm development. It appears that an isolated severe threat could develop along and near the instability axis each afternoon and evening. However, uncertainty is considerable concerning the details of any potential scenario.

..Broyles.. 08/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, August 16

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090858 SPC AC 090858

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sun Aug 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6

From Wednesday to Friday, a broad mid-level cyclonic flow pattern is forecast to remain in place across the Great Lakes and the Northeast, as a ridge moves eastward from the northern Rockies into the upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to become quasi-stationary from the central and northern Plains into the mid Missouri and Ohio Valleys. Low-level convergence near this front will be a focus for convective development each day.

On Wednesday, model forecasts suggest that scattered thunderstorms will most likely develop Wednesday afternoon along an axis of moderate instability from western Nebraska into southwestern South Dakota. The storms will be supported by a mid-level shortwave trough moving across the north-central U.S. Moderate deep-layer shear near the instability axis should support a severe threat during the afternoon and evening. The models also suggest that a convective cluster will form within a very moist and unstable airmass in the central Appalachians Wednesday afternoon, where a wind-damage threat will be possible.

On Thursday, the most favored corridor for convective development is forecast from eastern Nebraska into central Illinois. However, the models suggest that scattered convective coverage could be concentrated overnight as low-level flow increases across the region. A severe threat could develop during the day but would remain relatively isolated due to a lack of storm coverage. An isolated severe threat could also develop across parts of the central and northern High Plains during the afternoon. However, storms there will also likely be isolated due to a shortwave ridge aloft.

On Friday, thunderstorm swill also be possible from the central Plains eastward into the Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening. However, the most favored locations are likely to be determined by outflow boundaries associated with the previous day's convection. For this reason, uncertainty is substantial on Friday.

Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8

Over the weekend, a mid-level shortwave ridge is forecast to move across the north-central U.S., as west-northwesterly flow remains in the Northeast. An axis of instability is forecast from the central Plains into the Ohio Valley, which will be a focus for thunderstorm development. It appears that an isolated severe threat could develop along and near the instability axis each afternoon and evening. However, uncertainty is considerable concerning the details of any potential scenario.

..Broyles.. 08/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

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National Risk Overview

Sunday, August 9

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Monday, August 10

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 15%

Tuesday, August 11

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Wednesday, August 12

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Thursday, August 13

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, August 14

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Saturday, August 15

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Sunday, August 16

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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