Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, September 10
Outlook Summary
Sporadic damaging wind gusts appear possible from the southern Plains to the southern Mid-Atlantic coast this afternoon and evening. Isolated occurrences of large hail may occur over portions of south-central Colorado into northeast New Mexico and perhaps portions of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles this afternoon and evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 101940
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 0240 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026
Valid 102000Z - 111200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
### SUMMARY
Sporadic damaging wind gusts appear possible from the southern Plains to the southern Mid-Atlantic coast this afternoon and evening. Isolated occurrences of large hail may occur over portions of south-central Colorado into northeast New Mexico and perhaps portions of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles this afternoon and evening.
Southern Plains to the southern Mid-Atlantic coast
Recent surface analysis places the primary cold front from the St. Lawrence Valley west-southwestward through Lower MI, northern IL, and southern IA. The front then shifts more southwestward through central KS through the central OK and northwest TX Panhandles into far northeast NM. A broad area of showers and thunderstorms extends from southwest KS and the eastern TX/OK Panhandles through the Lower MO Valley and into the middle OH Valley. Much of this activity precedes the cold front and is supported by either modest low-level warm-air advection and/or convergence along southward/southeastward-progressing outflows.
Strong heating is anticipated south of residual cloudiness and lingering showers/thunderstorms, with temperatures well into the 90s to around 100 F over the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley, and upper 80s to mid 90s from the TN Valley to Mid-Atlantic. This heating coupled with dewpoints in the 60s to low/mid 70s will yield a moderately unstable air mass by afternoon with MLCAPE ranging from 1000 J/kg across the Mid-Atlantic vicinity to 2000-2500 J/kg across the southern Plains. This increased buoyancy coupled with convergence along the synoptic front (and any existing outflow boundaries) and modest large-scale ascent should result in thunderstorm activity persisting throughout the afternoon and evening. Some increase in intensity is possible too, particularly from north-central TX in the Mid-South vicinity where buoyancy will be highest. The presence of a relatively deep, well-mixed boundary layer will be supportive of sporadic damaging winds with isolated severe gusts in these areas. Buoyancy will be more limited farther east, but vertical shear will be stronger, and some more organized bowing segments are possible. Damaging gusts will be the primary severe risk over this region as well.
Raton Mesa Vicinity
Upslope flow of a moist boundary layer beneath mid-level lapse rates of 7-8 C/km will yield moderate afternoon instability with MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated by mid afternoon along the high terrain amidst a vertically veering wind profile with up to 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear. A few stronger storms are possible in this environment, with isolated hail as the primary hazard. Increasing low-level stability away from the terrain should keep the threat relatively confined and short lived.
..15_ows.. 09/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Friday, September 11
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of Nebraska to the Upper Midwest late Friday afternoon into Friday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 30%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 101715
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 1215 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of Nebraska to the Upper Midwest late Friday afternoon into Friday night.
Nebraska/Iowa/eastern Dakotas/Minnesota/Wisconsin
An upper shortwave trough will move across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced southwesterly flow will overspread the region, particularly from the Dakotas into MN/WI. Cooling aloft will also support steepening midlevel lapse rates atop a moistening boundary layer in which increasing southerly low-level flow will transport 60s dewpoints northward across the region. A surface low is forecast to develop and shift east across SD, with a surface cold front shifting southeast through period. This front will be oriented from northeast to southwest from northwest MN/eastern ND into central SD near the surface low by mid to late afternoon. A dryline will extend southward from the surface low over central SD through central NE. Corridors of moderate instability are forecast along/ahead of the front, and thunderstorm development is expected by late afternoon/early evening across northern MN.
Vertically veering wind profiles will support initial supercell storms capable of all hazards, including damaging wind, large hail, and a couple of tornadoes. Some hail greater than 2 inch diameter is possible if supercell mode can be maintained. Given strong linear ascent along the surface boundary, and an increasing southwesterly low-level jet during the evening, initial supercells are likely to cluster and/or grow upscale into line of convection spreading east/northeast through the nighttime hours.
Convective coverage is a bit more uncertain, and overall severe potential more conditional, with southward extent into eastern SD/IA and central NE. Large-scale ascent will be weaker further south, and this could be problematic for overcoming inhibition from warmer 850-700 mb temperatures, especially through early evening. As the surface cold front overtakes the dryline in NE overnight, elevated convection could develop within a low-level warm advection regime. Whether storms develop during the early evening or overnight, some severe risk from damaging gusts and hail will be possible.
..15_ows.. 09/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Saturday, September 12
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across parts of Kansas into southern Iowa and northern Missouri.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 101903
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM KANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across parts of Kansas into southern Iowa and northern Missouri.
Discussion
A large upper low/trough will progress eastward across northern Manitoba and Ontario, with stronger flow aloft over the Northern Plains and Upper Great Lakes. Much of that area will become stable due to high pressure building southward into NE/IA.
The wind shift with the associated cold front will push into KS and northern MO, beneath the southern fringe of the 30 kt midlevel westerlies. At the surface, strong heating will occur south of the cold front, with gradual height rises.
While predictability is low, isolated strong to perhaps severe storms cannot be ruled out near the cold front where mid 60s F dewpoints will persist, and CIN should be minimal at peak heating. MUCAPE of 2000+ J/kg seems reasonable, and the steep lapse rate profiles along with winds lightly veering with height should support locally strong to severe gusts with multicellular storm mode. It is uncertain how many storms may form due to the upper ridging.
..Jewell.. 09/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Sunday, September 13
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, September 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, September 14 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, September 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, September 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, September 17 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100744 SPC AC 100744
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-5/Sun-Mon – Central Plains to the Mid-MS Valley
A progressive upper pattern is expected early in the week. An initial upper trough over the Great Lakes will spread east as upper ridging builds across the Plains. Meanwhile, another upper trough over the Northwest will shift east, moving across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Monday, breaking down the upper ridge. Surface high pressure over the Great Lakes on Sunday will suppress low-level moisture southward across the central/southern Plains and the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys. A very moist airmass will be in place to the south of a stalled frontal boundary across the region. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will be possible near the surface boundary within low-level warm advection over the Middle to Lower MO Valley. Vertical shear will be weak, but strong instability could some strong gust potential, though convection may stay mainly to the cool side of the surface boundary. Overall, severe potential appears less than 15 percent on Sunday.
Severe potential will likely increase on Monday as the upper ridge breaks down and stronger southwesterly flow overspread the northern/central Plains to the Mid/Upper MS Valleys. Rich boundary layer moisture will be in place ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front. Convection may be ongoing from the northern Plains into IA/IL Monday morning. This results in some uncertainty in position of best severe potential. Currently, the best overlap of rich boundary layer moisture, strong instability and favorable shear near the advancing cold front appears to be from eastern NE into IA and vicinity. A 40+ kt southwesterly low-level jet is expected to develop during the nighttime hours across KS/NE into IA, oriented along the surface front, supporting an organized line of storms tracking southeast ahead of the front, and promoting damaging wind potential. Overall, the pattern appears favorable for at least isolated severe storms on Monday, and a 15 percent delineation has been included.
Days 6-8/Tue-Thu
The early week surface front will stall from the southern Plains to Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley through mid-week. A very moist airmass will persist south of the boundary, and persistent low-level warm advection could favor bouts of heavy rain. While some low-level severe potential could develop where pockets of strong destabilization occurs, weak vertical shear should largely limit more widespread potential, precluding probabilities.
..Leitman.. 09/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, September 14
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, September 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, September 14 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, September 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, September 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, September 17 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100744 SPC AC 100744
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-5/Sun-Mon – Central Plains to the Mid-MS Valley
A progressive upper pattern is expected early in the week. An initial upper trough over the Great Lakes will spread east as upper ridging builds across the Plains. Meanwhile, another upper trough over the Northwest will shift east, moving across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Monday, breaking down the upper ridge. Surface high pressure over the Great Lakes on Sunday will suppress low-level moisture southward across the central/southern Plains and the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys. A very moist airmass will be in place to the south of a stalled frontal boundary across the region. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will be possible near the surface boundary within low-level warm advection over the Middle to Lower MO Valley. Vertical shear will be weak, but strong instability could some strong gust potential, though convection may stay mainly to the cool side of the surface boundary. Overall, severe potential appears less than 15 percent on Sunday.
Severe potential will likely increase on Monday as the upper ridge breaks down and stronger southwesterly flow overspread the northern/central Plains to the Mid/Upper MS Valleys. Rich boundary layer moisture will be in place ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front. Convection may be ongoing from the northern Plains into IA/IL Monday morning. This results in some uncertainty in position of best severe potential. Currently, the best overlap of rich boundary layer moisture, strong instability and favorable shear near the advancing cold front appears to be from eastern NE into IA and vicinity. A 40+ kt southwesterly low-level jet is expected to develop during the nighttime hours across KS/NE into IA, oriented along the surface front, supporting an organized line of storms tracking southeast ahead of the front, and promoting damaging wind potential. Overall, the pattern appears favorable for at least isolated severe storms on Monday, and a 15 percent delineation has been included.
Days 6-8/Tue-Thu
The early week surface front will stall from the southern Plains to Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley through mid-week. A very moist airmass will persist south of the boundary, and persistent low-level warm advection could favor bouts of heavy rain. While some low-level severe potential could develop where pockets of strong destabilization occurs, weak vertical shear should largely limit more widespread potential, precluding probabilities.
..Leitman.. 09/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, September 15
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, September 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, September 14 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, September 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, September 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, September 17 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100744 SPC AC 100744
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-5/Sun-Mon – Central Plains to the Mid-MS Valley
A progressive upper pattern is expected early in the week. An initial upper trough over the Great Lakes will spread east as upper ridging builds across the Plains. Meanwhile, another upper trough over the Northwest will shift east, moving across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Monday, breaking down the upper ridge. Surface high pressure over the Great Lakes on Sunday will suppress low-level moisture southward across the central/southern Plains and the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys. A very moist airmass will be in place to the south of a stalled frontal boundary across the region. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will be possible near the surface boundary within low-level warm advection over the Middle to Lower MO Valley. Vertical shear will be weak, but strong instability could some strong gust potential, though convection may stay mainly to the cool side of the surface boundary. Overall, severe potential appears less than 15 percent on Sunday.
Severe potential will likely increase on Monday as the upper ridge breaks down and stronger southwesterly flow overspread the northern/central Plains to the Mid/Upper MS Valleys. Rich boundary layer moisture will be in place ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front. Convection may be ongoing from the northern Plains into IA/IL Monday morning. This results in some uncertainty in position of best severe potential. Currently, the best overlap of rich boundary layer moisture, strong instability and favorable shear near the advancing cold front appears to be from eastern NE into IA and vicinity. A 40+ kt southwesterly low-level jet is expected to develop during the nighttime hours across KS/NE into IA, oriented along the surface front, supporting an organized line of storms tracking southeast ahead of the front, and promoting damaging wind potential. Overall, the pattern appears favorable for at least isolated severe storms on Monday, and a 15 percent delineation has been included.
Days 6-8/Tue-Thu
The early week surface front will stall from the southern Plains to Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley through mid-week. A very moist airmass will persist south of the boundary, and persistent low-level warm advection could favor bouts of heavy rain. While some low-level severe potential could develop where pockets of strong destabilization occurs, weak vertical shear should largely limit more widespread potential, precluding probabilities.
..Leitman.. 09/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, September 16
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, September 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, September 14 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, September 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, September 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, September 17 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100744 SPC AC 100744
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-5/Sun-Mon – Central Plains to the Mid-MS Valley
A progressive upper pattern is expected early in the week. An initial upper trough over the Great Lakes will spread east as upper ridging builds across the Plains. Meanwhile, another upper trough over the Northwest will shift east, moving across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Monday, breaking down the upper ridge. Surface high pressure over the Great Lakes on Sunday will suppress low-level moisture southward across the central/southern Plains and the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys. A very moist airmass will be in place to the south of a stalled frontal boundary across the region. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will be possible near the surface boundary within low-level warm advection over the Middle to Lower MO Valley. Vertical shear will be weak, but strong instability could some strong gust potential, though convection may stay mainly to the cool side of the surface boundary. Overall, severe potential appears less than 15 percent on Sunday.
Severe potential will likely increase on Monday as the upper ridge breaks down and stronger southwesterly flow overspread the northern/central Plains to the Mid/Upper MS Valleys. Rich boundary layer moisture will be in place ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front. Convection may be ongoing from the northern Plains into IA/IL Monday morning. This results in some uncertainty in position of best severe potential. Currently, the best overlap of rich boundary layer moisture, strong instability and favorable shear near the advancing cold front appears to be from eastern NE into IA and vicinity. A 40+ kt southwesterly low-level jet is expected to develop during the nighttime hours across KS/NE into IA, oriented along the surface front, supporting an organized line of storms tracking southeast ahead of the front, and promoting damaging wind potential. Overall, the pattern appears favorable for at least isolated severe storms on Monday, and a 15 percent delineation has been included.
Days 6-8/Tue-Thu
The early week surface front will stall from the southern Plains to Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley through mid-week. A very moist airmass will persist south of the boundary, and persistent low-level warm advection could favor bouts of heavy rain. While some low-level severe potential could develop where pockets of strong destabilization occurs, weak vertical shear should largely limit more widespread potential, precluding probabilities.
..Leitman.. 09/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, September 17
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, September 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, September 14 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, September 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, September 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, September 17 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100744 SPC AC 100744
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-5/Sun-Mon – Central Plains to the Mid-MS Valley
A progressive upper pattern is expected early in the week. An initial upper trough over the Great Lakes will spread east as upper ridging builds across the Plains. Meanwhile, another upper trough over the Northwest will shift east, moving across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Monday, breaking down the upper ridge. Surface high pressure over the Great Lakes on Sunday will suppress low-level moisture southward across the central/southern Plains and the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys. A very moist airmass will be in place to the south of a stalled frontal boundary across the region. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will be possible near the surface boundary within low-level warm advection over the Middle to Lower MO Valley. Vertical shear will be weak, but strong instability could some strong gust potential, though convection may stay mainly to the cool side of the surface boundary. Overall, severe potential appears less than 15 percent on Sunday.
Severe potential will likely increase on Monday as the upper ridge breaks down and stronger southwesterly flow overspread the northern/central Plains to the Mid/Upper MS Valleys. Rich boundary layer moisture will be in place ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front. Convection may be ongoing from the northern Plains into IA/IL Monday morning. This results in some uncertainty in position of best severe potential. Currently, the best overlap of rich boundary layer moisture, strong instability and favorable shear near the advancing cold front appears to be from eastern NE into IA and vicinity. A 40+ kt southwesterly low-level jet is expected to develop during the nighttime hours across KS/NE into IA, oriented along the surface front, supporting an organized line of storms tracking southeast ahead of the front, and promoting damaging wind potential. Overall, the pattern appears favorable for at least isolated severe storms on Monday, and a 15 percent delineation has been included.
Days 6-8/Tue-Thu
The early week surface front will stall from the southern Plains to Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley through mid-week. A very moist airmass will persist south of the boundary, and persistent low-level warm advection could favor bouts of heavy rain. While some low-level severe potential could develop where pockets of strong destabilization occurs, weak vertical shear should largely limit more widespread potential, precluding probabilities.
..Leitman.. 09/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, September 10
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Friday, September 11
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 30%
- Saturday, September 12
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Sunday, September 13
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, September 14
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Tuesday, September 15
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, September 16
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, September 17
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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