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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Tuesday, September 1

Outlook Summary

Scattered strong to severe storms are possible over the central Plains and Midwest, as well as parts of New York, Pennsylvania and New Jersey.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 010603

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Tue Sep 01 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST INTO PARTS OF PENNSYLVANIA NEW YORK AND NEW JERSEY.

### SUMMARY

Scattered strong to severe storms are possible over the central Plains and Midwest, as well as parts of New York, Pennsylvania and New Jersey.

Eastern Great Lakes, OH valley and NY/NJ

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing early in the period across parts of NY associated with a lead shortwave trough and warm advection. Remnant clouds, showers and storms should persist trough the day along a northwest to southeast warm front across northern/eastern NY into NJ. A second shortwave trough and mid-level jet will approach during the afternoon providing ascent across the upper OH Valley and NY.

Despite modest mid-level lapse rates, 70s F surface dewpoints and strong heating will support a very unstable air mass with MLCAPE of 3000+ J/kg south of the warm front. Increasing vertical shear ahead of the mid-level speed max will favor a mix of supercells and line segments across southern NY, PA and NJ through the afternoon. Scattered damaging gusts and isolated hail are the most likely hazards. Low-level shear will be greatest near the southern Hudson Valley and the instability gradient into northeast PA/northern NJ. Enhanced ESRH could support a couple of tornadoes with the stronger supercells or QLCS segments.

Some guidance shows additional thunderstorms developing over southern lower MI and ON early Wed, associated with another mid-level wave speed max across the eastern Great Lakes. Sufficient elevated buoyancy (2000 J/kg MUCAPE) and vertical shear will exist for some damaging wind threat should this occur. This scenario remains uncertain, but these storms could potentially track southeast and organize, approaching northeast OH and western NY/PA by 12z Wed morning.

Central/northern Plains

A stalled front will lift northward across parts of NE/SD as several low-amplitude shortwave troughs move out of the Rockies and onto the Plains. Weak ascent from these features will modestly deepen a surface low across NE and SD. In response, strengthening southerly flow/moisture should result in moderate to strong destabilization by early afternoon.

Convection lingering from overnight may begin to rejuvenate along and north of the front across SD as heating increases through the afternoon. Meanwhile, inhibition owing to warm mid-level temperatures will likely remain in place most of the day south of the front. Weak ascent and strong heating should be sufficient to support isolated storm development by late afternoon. A belt of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft would favor organization with supercell or strong clusters likely. Hail (some 2+ inch) is possible along with damaging gusts given a supercell mode. A tornado or two is also possible given the potential for supercells to reside along the boundary where low-level flow will be substantially backed and hodographs expanded.

Eventually, one or more clusters may merge into an MCS and track eastward along the front into eastern SD and southern MN through the evening. Damaging gusts will be possible if this convection can organize through the late evening/overnight hours. Model guidance varies on the intensity and organization of the system. However, confidence has increased enough that 15% CIG1 wind probabilities have been added along the front.

High Plains

To the southwest along the surface lee trough, high-based convection is likely to develop around peak heating across southwestern NE into eastern Co and western KS. Despite more limited surface moisture, very warm temperatures and steep lapse rates in the lower/middle troposphere will promote strong multicell clusters. These storms could produce severe gusts as they move east/northwest eventually moving into more unstable air.

Upper TX Coast

TS Eduardo located near 28.6N 91.8W as of 10 pm CDT is forecast to move toward the southwest LA/southeast TX coast and make landfall tonight. Wind fields are forecast to remain relatively confined given its small size and fast westward motion. This should limit stronger low-level shear favorable for supercells and tornadoes.

..Lyons/Wendt.. 09/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, September 2

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the eastern Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic through the day Wednesday. Severe gusts are the main threat, though some hail or a tornado or two could occur. A few severe gusts are also possible over northern Montana Wednesday afternoon.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 010558

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Tue Sep 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the eastern Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic through the day Wednesday. Severe gusts are the main threat, though some hail or a tornado or two could occur. A few severe gusts are also possible over northern Montana Wednesday afternoon.

Synopsis

An upper ridge will stall over the TN Valley, with a low-amplitude mid-level trough poised to traverse the ridge and overspread portions of the Northeast tomorrow (Wednesday). Meanwhile, an upper trough will amplify across the Interior West. At the surface, a trough will become established across the Hudson Valley area, promoting enough lift for ascent amid a moist and unstable low-level airmass, supporting strong to severe thunderstorm development. Likewise, deep-layer forcing for ascent and colder temperatures aloft will accompany a pronounced mid-level impulse rotating around the Interior West upper trough, promoting isolated severe potential across portions of northern MT.

Eastern Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic

A complex severe weather setup will exist across the eastern Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic through the entire period (12Z Wednesday morning to 12Z Thursday morning). Guidance consensus continues to depict a primary mid-level impulse and accompanying 50+ kt 500 mb jet max overspreading the Hudson Valley during the day. 70+ F surface dewpoints beneath 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates will yield 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE from eastern Lower Michigan to at least as far east as central PA by afternoon peak heating. The overspreading mid-level jet max will also encourage 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear and modestly curved, elongated hodographs. Such conditions will foster the potential for supercells and bowing segments accompanied by a severe gust threat, along with isolated instances of large hail and perhaps a tornado or two.

The primary concern with this meteorological setup will be the timing and placement of thunderstorm clusters, which will ultimately determine the severity and coverage of convective hazards. CAMs widely vary in their solutions regarding the outcome of this event, with some models showing early day bow echo potential and others holding off on the main round of storms until after dark. Given the ambient supporting environment, there may be a need for introducing higher severe probabilities with CIG1. However, this scenario is highly dependent on the timing of organized storms relative to the diurnal cycle, a detail better resolved with a full suite of convection-allowing guidance. If storms are poorly timed with the diurnal cycle (including an overturning of the warm sector during early afternoon), severe probabilities may even need to be reduced in places. Given the inherent lack of predictability that often accompanies subtly forced ridging environments, prudence was exercised in withholding higher severe probabilities this outlook.

Portions of northern Montana

A surface trough will deepen across central and northern MT with the south-southwestward approach of the mid-level impulse embedded within broader upper troughing. As this occurs, a band of showers and thunderstorms will develop along an arcing cold front poised to sweep across the region. Ahead of the storms/front, surface temperatures will warm into the 80s F, amid dewpoints at or below 40 F, resulting in a well-mixed boundary layer extending to the 600-500 mb layer. Furthermore, strong unidirectional (southwesterly) flow through a deep layer will promote 20-30 kts of effective bulk/speed shear, with multicells the main storm mode expected. Efficient evaporative cooling (given the deep and dry boundary layer) will promote the potential for widely scattered severe gusts with the stronger storms.

..Squitieri.. 09/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Thursday, September 3

Outlook Summary

At least widely scattered severe storms, accompanied by damaging gusts and perhaps some hail, appear likely across portions of the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic coast on Thursday.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 010720

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CDT Tue Sep 01 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC

### SUMMARY

At least widely scattered severe storms, accompanied by damaging gusts and perhaps some hail, appear likely across portions of the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic coast on Thursday.

Synopsis

Upper ridging will persist across the Mid-MS Valley and points east, with multiple mid-level perturbations expected to crest the upper ridge from the Upper MS Valley to the Mid-Atlantic through the day Thursday. Currently, the best chance for severe storms will be with the primary impulse over the Mid-Atlantic, as stronger flow aloft overspreads a moist boundary layer. A couple of severe thunderstorms also cannot be ruled out farther northwest across the Upper MS Valley, where rich low-level moisture will be coincident with a diffuse warm frontal boundary.

OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic Coastline

Medium-range guidance is in general agreement that a modest mid-level impulse will overspread the Mid-Atlantic, contributing to some forcing for ascent and 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear. Despite only 6 C/km mid-level lapse rates, surface dewpoints exceeding 70 F will yield over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE from the eastern OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic coastline on a widespread basis. While upper support may be weaker compared to the previous day, multiple days of preceding storms should leave behind a lingering baroclinic boundary somewhere around the Mid-Atlantic, which may act as a forcing mechanism for convective initiation. Given the aforementioned CAPE/shear parameter space, supercells and bowing segments may occur, capable of producing mainly a severe gust threat, though a couple instances of severe hail may occur.

Some guidance suggests that the best buoyancy/shear parameter space for severe may situate over eastern PA into NJ. However, it is unclear how previous day's storms will impact the boundary layer over this region by Day 3/Thursday, so Slight Risk probabilities were introduced conservatively, with some latitude given to the northern extent of the Marginal Risk probabilities. If the more aggressive guidance holds true and convective overturning does not dominate this region, higher severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks.

Portions of the Upper MS Valley to the Midwest

Convective initiation is more uncertain across portions of the Midwest to the Upper MS Valley, where a northwestward arching warm front will be located. Here, surface dewpoints should reach the mid 70s F beneath 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates, yielding 3500-4500 J/kg MLCAPE. While several calibrated ML/AI guidance members depict higher severe probabilities across this region, only Marginal risk probabilities have been introduced since the mid-level impulses poised to track along this boundary are quite small and subtle, rendering storm coverage highly questionable. Nonetheless, if a storm can mature and become sustained, 40+ kts of effective bulk shear with the strong instability may support a supercell or two capable of mainly severe wind and hail.

..Squitieri.. 09/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Friday, September 4

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010828 SPC AC 010828

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CDT Tue Sep 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper ridge will meander from the Mid-MS and TN Valleys toward the Plains through the extended period, with upper troughs poised to amplify along the East Coast and over the Interior West. Multiple mid-level impulses will traverse this flow pattern, translating from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Plains and Upper MS Valley, then the Mid-Atlantic. It is in this elongated, roughly zonal corridor that thunderstorm potential will be highest.

The severe threat with the relatively highest degree of predictability will be across the Mid-Atlantic Days 4-5 (Friday and Saturday). On Friday, a diffuse differential heating boundary, generated by thunderstorm clusters from previous days, will likely become established somewhere across the southern Mid-Atlantic. As an upper trough amplifies over this differential heating boundary, thunderstorms should develop amid rich low-level moisture beneath stronger flow aloft. The more organized storms may produce damaging wind gusts (hence the maintenance of 15 percent severe probabilities). Calibrated ML/AI guidance suggests that the severe threat may persist into Saturday across the Carolina Piedmont. However, deterministic guidance shows the upper trough advancing further into the Atlantic this weekend, along with upper support. As such, storm coverage and initiation mechanisms for Saturday remain too unclear this far in advance for the introduction of severe probabilities at this time.

Amplification of the Interior West upper trough will support surface lee troughing and accompanying low-level moisture advection across the Plains states. While at least isolated severe thunderstorms may occur any where from the northern/central High Plains toward the Upper MS Valley, predictability of any severe potential is too low this far out.

..Squitieri.. 09/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, September 5

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010828 SPC AC 010828

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CDT Tue Sep 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper ridge will meander from the Mid-MS and TN Valleys toward the Plains through the extended period, with upper troughs poised to amplify along the East Coast and over the Interior West. Multiple mid-level impulses will traverse this flow pattern, translating from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Plains and Upper MS Valley, then the Mid-Atlantic. It is in this elongated, roughly zonal corridor that thunderstorm potential will be highest.

The severe threat with the relatively highest degree of predictability will be across the Mid-Atlantic Days 4-5 (Friday and Saturday). On Friday, a diffuse differential heating boundary, generated by thunderstorm clusters from previous days, will likely become established somewhere across the southern Mid-Atlantic. As an upper trough amplifies over this differential heating boundary, thunderstorms should develop amid rich low-level moisture beneath stronger flow aloft. The more organized storms may produce damaging wind gusts (hence the maintenance of 15 percent severe probabilities). Calibrated ML/AI guidance suggests that the severe threat may persist into Saturday across the Carolina Piedmont. However, deterministic guidance shows the upper trough advancing further into the Atlantic this weekend, along with upper support. As such, storm coverage and initiation mechanisms for Saturday remain too unclear this far in advance for the introduction of severe probabilities at this time.

Amplification of the Interior West upper trough will support surface lee troughing and accompanying low-level moisture advection across the Plains states. While at least isolated severe thunderstorms may occur any where from the northern/central High Plains toward the Upper MS Valley, predictability of any severe potential is too low this far out.

..Squitieri.. 09/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, September 6

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010828 SPC AC 010828

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CDT Tue Sep 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper ridge will meander from the Mid-MS and TN Valleys toward the Plains through the extended period, with upper troughs poised to amplify along the East Coast and over the Interior West. Multiple mid-level impulses will traverse this flow pattern, translating from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Plains and Upper MS Valley, then the Mid-Atlantic. It is in this elongated, roughly zonal corridor that thunderstorm potential will be highest.

The severe threat with the relatively highest degree of predictability will be across the Mid-Atlantic Days 4-5 (Friday and Saturday). On Friday, a diffuse differential heating boundary, generated by thunderstorm clusters from previous days, will likely become established somewhere across the southern Mid-Atlantic. As an upper trough amplifies over this differential heating boundary, thunderstorms should develop amid rich low-level moisture beneath stronger flow aloft. The more organized storms may produce damaging wind gusts (hence the maintenance of 15 percent severe probabilities). Calibrated ML/AI guidance suggests that the severe threat may persist into Saturday across the Carolina Piedmont. However, deterministic guidance shows the upper trough advancing further into the Atlantic this weekend, along with upper support. As such, storm coverage and initiation mechanisms for Saturday remain too unclear this far in advance for the introduction of severe probabilities at this time.

Amplification of the Interior West upper trough will support surface lee troughing and accompanying low-level moisture advection across the Plains states. While at least isolated severe thunderstorms may occur any where from the northern/central High Plains toward the Upper MS Valley, predictability of any severe potential is too low this far out.

..Squitieri.. 09/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, September 7

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010828 SPC AC 010828

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CDT Tue Sep 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper ridge will meander from the Mid-MS and TN Valleys toward the Plains through the extended period, with upper troughs poised to amplify along the East Coast and over the Interior West. Multiple mid-level impulses will traverse this flow pattern, translating from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Plains and Upper MS Valley, then the Mid-Atlantic. It is in this elongated, roughly zonal corridor that thunderstorm potential will be highest.

The severe threat with the relatively highest degree of predictability will be across the Mid-Atlantic Days 4-5 (Friday and Saturday). On Friday, a diffuse differential heating boundary, generated by thunderstorm clusters from previous days, will likely become established somewhere across the southern Mid-Atlantic. As an upper trough amplifies over this differential heating boundary, thunderstorms should develop amid rich low-level moisture beneath stronger flow aloft. The more organized storms may produce damaging wind gusts (hence the maintenance of 15 percent severe probabilities). Calibrated ML/AI guidance suggests that the severe threat may persist into Saturday across the Carolina Piedmont. However, deterministic guidance shows the upper trough advancing further into the Atlantic this weekend, along with upper support. As such, storm coverage and initiation mechanisms for Saturday remain too unclear this far in advance for the introduction of severe probabilities at this time.

Amplification of the Interior West upper trough will support surface lee troughing and accompanying low-level moisture advection across the Plains states. While at least isolated severe thunderstorms may occur any where from the northern/central High Plains toward the Upper MS Valley, predictability of any severe potential is too low this far out.

..Squitieri.. 09/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, September 8

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010828 SPC AC 010828

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CDT Tue Sep 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper ridge will meander from the Mid-MS and TN Valleys toward the Plains through the extended period, with upper troughs poised to amplify along the East Coast and over the Interior West. Multiple mid-level impulses will traverse this flow pattern, translating from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Plains and Upper MS Valley, then the Mid-Atlantic. It is in this elongated, roughly zonal corridor that thunderstorm potential will be highest.

The severe threat with the relatively highest degree of predictability will be across the Mid-Atlantic Days 4-5 (Friday and Saturday). On Friday, a diffuse differential heating boundary, generated by thunderstorm clusters from previous days, will likely become established somewhere across the southern Mid-Atlantic. As an upper trough amplifies over this differential heating boundary, thunderstorms should develop amid rich low-level moisture beneath stronger flow aloft. The more organized storms may produce damaging wind gusts (hence the maintenance of 15 percent severe probabilities). Calibrated ML/AI guidance suggests that the severe threat may persist into Saturday across the Carolina Piedmont. However, deterministic guidance shows the upper trough advancing further into the Atlantic this weekend, along with upper support. As such, storm coverage and initiation mechanisms for Saturday remain too unclear this far in advance for the introduction of severe probabilities at this time.

Amplification of the Interior West upper trough will support surface lee troughing and accompanying low-level moisture advection across the Plains states. While at least isolated severe thunderstorms may occur any where from the northern/central High Plains toward the Upper MS Valley, predictability of any severe potential is too low this far out.

..Squitieri.. 09/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Tuesday, September 1

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Wednesday, September 2

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Thursday, September 3

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Friday, September 4

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Saturday, September 5

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Sunday, September 6

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Monday, September 7

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Tuesday, September 8

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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