Severe Weather Outlook
Hayley here - Do you want to see severe weather in your calendar?
* it's like an add-on for your digital calendar NOT a paper calendar
National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, May 24
Outlook Summary
Isolated supercell development may persist in a narrow corridor across northeastern Nebraska into southwestern Minnesota through mid to late evening before diminishing.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 250052
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026
Valid 250100Z - 251200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA…SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA…NORTHWESTERN IOWA…SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA
### SUMMARY
Isolated supercell development may persist in a narrow corridor across northeastern Nebraska into southwestern Minnesota through mid to late evening before diminishing.
01Z Update
### Mid Missouri Valley
Mid-level heights continue to build across much of the northern Rockies and Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest. Primary forcing for ongoing convective development appears to lift associated with weak lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, along and east of weak northern Great Plains surface troughing. Low-level moisture return has remained rather modest (with maximum surface dew points still in the mid/upper 50s F) and confined to a narrow corridor, but this appears to be contributing to CAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg. The onset of radiational surface cooling, coupled with warming aloft, probably will result in rapidly increasing inhibition within the next couple of hours. This should be accompanied by diminishing convective trends, but it is possible that this could be slowed somewhat by forcing on the nose of a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet.
Southern Appalachians
As a remnant lower/mid-tropospheric mesoscale convective vortex migrates north-northeastward across northwestern Georgia into the southern Appalachians, modest clockwise-curved low-level hodographs are developing across the Piedmont of eastern Georgia into South Carolina. This is where a recent increase in thunderstorm development is ongoing in the presence of a seasonably moist boundary-layer characterized by sizable CAPE. With the surface dew points in the lower 70s enhancing low-level buoyancy and potential near surface upward accelerations, an isolated tornado may not be out of the question, before forcing spreads into cooler/more stable air.
..Kerr.. 05/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Monday, May 25
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible across parts of the Minnesota Arrowhead region, central Plains and Midwest, Southeast, and New Mexico/Far West Texas on Monday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 241732
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MN ARROWHEAD REGION…PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST…PARTS OF NM/FAR WEST TX…AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible across parts of the Minnesota Arrowhead region, central Plains and Midwest, Southeast, and New Mexico/Far West Texas on Monday.
MN Arrowhead region
While large-scale ascent will be nebulous at best amidst modest midlevel height rises, most guidance depicts strong heating and potential for at least isolated storm development in the vicinity of a cold front across parts of MN Arrowhead region during the afternoon. Deep-layer flow will be modest, but southwesterly surface winds veering to west-northwesterly aloft will result in 30-35 kt of effective shear, sufficient for storm organization. Relatively steep lapse rates and moderate buoyancy will support isolated hail and localized strong/damaging gusts, if storms can mature across this region.
Central Plains into southwest MN/northwest IA
While forcing will generally be weak, strong diurnal heating may support isolated storm development in the vicinity of a weak surface trough/confluence zone from northern NE/southern SD into northwest IA/southwest MN. Deep-layer flow will be weak, but modest midlevel west-northwesterlies may provide sufficient deep-layer shear for some storm organization. Favorable lapse rates and buoyancy will support potential for isolated hail and localized damaging gusts.
NM into Far West Texas
Relatively widespread convection is expected on Monday across parts of NM into Far West TX, in association with mid/upper-level trough over the Southwest. Buoyancy is expected to remain relatively modest across NM, but generally unidirectional southerly flow within a relatively well-mixed environment will support outflow-driven clusters capable of localized severe gusts. Strong storms may spread into parts of Far West TX Monday night, with a continued threat of strong to localized severe gusts.
Southeast
A similar regime to previous days is expected across the Gulf Coast/Southeast, with widespread convection expected to the east of a persistent mid/upper-level trough over east TX. Water-loaded downdrafts will again be capable producing localized wind damage, with any more organized potential tied to uncertain MCV development. A Marginal Risk has been included from the FL Panhandle into GA, where there appears to be the greatest potential for preconvective heating/destabilization. If organized MCV development occurs, then there may be some severe potential to the west and north of this Marginal Risk area.
Interior Northwest/Northern Rockies
Thunderstorm development is expected by afternoon from far eastern OR/WA into ID/western MT/northwest WY, in advance of a vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough moving into the Pacific Northwest. Much of this activity may be relatively high-based and disorganized, with strong outflow gusts possible. The most aggressive guidance regarding moistening and destabilization suggests some marginal supercell potential across northern ID and far western MT. Severe probabilities may eventually be needed across parts of the region, if guidance consensus trends towards a greater potential for organized convection.
..Dean.. 05/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Tuesday, May 26
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe storms will be possible across western Texas into southeastern New Mexico Tuesday afternoon and evening. Across this region, large hail, severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado will be possible.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 241922
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe storms will be possible across western Texas into southeastern New Mexico Tuesday afternoon and evening. Across this region, large hail, severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado will be possible.
Parts of west TX and southeast NM
No major changes have been made to the Slight Risk area. A broad negative-tilt mid/upper trough with multiple embedded vorticity maxima will impinge upon relatively rich moisture and moderate to locally strong buoyancy across parts of west TX and southeast NM on Tuesday. Weak capping and increasingly difluent flow aloft will likely lead to multiple rounds of thunderstorms through the day and into Tuesday night. Low-level southeasterly flow veering to modest southwesterlies aloft will result in 30-40 kt of effective shear, supporting potential for organized clusters and a few supercells. Large hail and localized severe gusts could accompany the strongest storms. Gradually increasing low-level shear/SRH could also support some tornado threat from afternoon into the evening.
Convection could spread into a larger portion of south-central TX by Tuesday night, though decreasing shear and increasing low-level stability with eastward extent should lead to an eventual weakening trend. The Marginal Risk was expanded eastward somewhat to account for isolated severe potential into late evening.
Central/western MT and adjacent parts of northern ID
Scattered thunderstorms are expected during the day/evening from parts of northern ID into western/central MT, in association with a mid/upper-level low/trough over the Pacific Northwest. Moisture and instability will likely remain modest at best, but increasing deep-layer shear could support a few strong storms, with a threat of localized severe gusts and marginally severe hail.
..Dean.. 05/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Wednesday, May 27
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, May 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, May 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, May 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, May 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, May 31 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240900 SPC AC 240900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
The western US trough will shift southward into the Great Basin on D4/Wednesday with strengthening westerly flow overspreading the southwestern US. The axis of the central US ridge will shift eastward, with heights continuing to rise across portions of the central/northern Plains. A few stronger storms may be possible across portions of central/eastern Montana. Overall, confidence is low in any areas of organized severe potential. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible from the Southern/Central Plains to the southeastern US. Generally weak flow should keep organized severe potential low. The exception may be across far western Texas where modest mid-level flow will continue, though large scale forcing for ascent will decrease from D3/Tuesday.
For the D5/Thursday through D6/Friday period, ensemble guidance suggests the western low will shift northward again and phase with the northern jet stream. There is low confidence in chances for strong to severe storms, pending details on moisture, across the northern Rockies into the central/northern high Plains as lee troughing strengthens. Some severe potential may also extend into the eastern and southeastern US as a cold front shifts southward as flow enhances in the trough across Quebec from D6/Friday to D7/Saturday.
..Thornton.. 05/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, May 28
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, May 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, May 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, May 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, May 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, May 31 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240900 SPC AC 240900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
The western US trough will shift southward into the Great Basin on D4/Wednesday with strengthening westerly flow overspreading the southwestern US. The axis of the central US ridge will shift eastward, with heights continuing to rise across portions of the central/northern Plains. A few stronger storms may be possible across portions of central/eastern Montana. Overall, confidence is low in any areas of organized severe potential. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible from the Southern/Central Plains to the southeastern US. Generally weak flow should keep organized severe potential low. The exception may be across far western Texas where modest mid-level flow will continue, though large scale forcing for ascent will decrease from D3/Tuesday.
For the D5/Thursday through D6/Friday period, ensemble guidance suggests the western low will shift northward again and phase with the northern jet stream. There is low confidence in chances for strong to severe storms, pending details on moisture, across the northern Rockies into the central/northern high Plains as lee troughing strengthens. Some severe potential may also extend into the eastern and southeastern US as a cold front shifts southward as flow enhances in the trough across Quebec from D6/Friday to D7/Saturday.
..Thornton.. 05/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, May 29
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, May 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, May 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, May 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, May 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, May 31 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240900 SPC AC 240900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
The western US trough will shift southward into the Great Basin on D4/Wednesday with strengthening westerly flow overspreading the southwestern US. The axis of the central US ridge will shift eastward, with heights continuing to rise across portions of the central/northern Plains. A few stronger storms may be possible across portions of central/eastern Montana. Overall, confidence is low in any areas of organized severe potential. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible from the Southern/Central Plains to the southeastern US. Generally weak flow should keep organized severe potential low. The exception may be across far western Texas where modest mid-level flow will continue, though large scale forcing for ascent will decrease from D3/Tuesday.
For the D5/Thursday through D6/Friday period, ensemble guidance suggests the western low will shift northward again and phase with the northern jet stream. There is low confidence in chances for strong to severe storms, pending details on moisture, across the northern Rockies into the central/northern high Plains as lee troughing strengthens. Some severe potential may also extend into the eastern and southeastern US as a cold front shifts southward as flow enhances in the trough across Quebec from D6/Friday to D7/Saturday.
..Thornton.. 05/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, May 30
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, May 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, May 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, May 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, May 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, May 31 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240900 SPC AC 240900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
The western US trough will shift southward into the Great Basin on D4/Wednesday with strengthening westerly flow overspreading the southwestern US. The axis of the central US ridge will shift eastward, with heights continuing to rise across portions of the central/northern Plains. A few stronger storms may be possible across portions of central/eastern Montana. Overall, confidence is low in any areas of organized severe potential. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible from the Southern/Central Plains to the southeastern US. Generally weak flow should keep organized severe potential low. The exception may be across far western Texas where modest mid-level flow will continue, though large scale forcing for ascent will decrease from D3/Tuesday.
For the D5/Thursday through D6/Friday period, ensemble guidance suggests the western low will shift northward again and phase with the northern jet stream. There is low confidence in chances for strong to severe storms, pending details on moisture, across the northern Rockies into the central/northern high Plains as lee troughing strengthens. Some severe potential may also extend into the eastern and southeastern US as a cold front shifts southward as flow enhances in the trough across Quebec from D6/Friday to D7/Saturday.
..Thornton.. 05/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, May 31
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, May 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, May 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, May 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, May 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, May 31 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240900 SPC AC 240900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
The western US trough will shift southward into the Great Basin on D4/Wednesday with strengthening westerly flow overspreading the southwestern US. The axis of the central US ridge will shift eastward, with heights continuing to rise across portions of the central/northern Plains. A few stronger storms may be possible across portions of central/eastern Montana. Overall, confidence is low in any areas of organized severe potential. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible from the Southern/Central Plains to the southeastern US. Generally weak flow should keep organized severe potential low. The exception may be across far western Texas where modest mid-level flow will continue, though large scale forcing for ascent will decrease from D3/Tuesday.
For the D5/Thursday through D6/Friday period, ensemble guidance suggests the western low will shift northward again and phase with the northern jet stream. There is low confidence in chances for strong to severe storms, pending details on moisture, across the northern Rockies into the central/northern high Plains as lee troughing strengthens. Some severe potential may also extend into the eastern and southeastern US as a cold front shifts southward as flow enhances in the trough across Quebec from D6/Friday to D7/Saturday.
..Thornton.. 05/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, May 24
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 5%
- Monday, May 25
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Tuesday, May 26
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Wednesday, May 27
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, May 28
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, May 29
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, May 30
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, May 31
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Your Severe Outlook
Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.
Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.
Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.
About Severe Weather Outlook . com
SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.
- tornado hq - live severe weather warnings
- cyclocane - hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones
- tornado solitaire - play cards while you monitor the US severe weather threat
- tertremo - live view of earthquakes around the world
- earthquake solitaire - get live earthquake updates as you play your favorite card game