Severe Weather Outlook
Hayley here - Do you want to see severe weather in your calendar?
* it's like an add-on for your digital calendar NOT a paper calendar
National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, May 22
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible from late this afternoon into the evening in parts of the southern High Plains. Isolated severe gusts and hail may occur in parts of the mid Missouri Valley. A few severe gusts and a marginal tornado threat will also be possible from the central Gulf Coast States into the Tennessee and southern Ohio Valleys.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 220559
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible from late this afternoon into the evening in parts of the southern High Plains. Isolated severe gusts and hail may occur in parts of the mid Missouri Valley. A few severe gusts and a marginal tornado threat will also be possible from the central Gulf Coast States into the Tennessee and southern Ohio Valleys.
Southern High Plains
A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward into the southern High Plains today. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass will be located across most of Texas and Oklahoma. Thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon on the moisture gradient from the western Texas Panhandle southward into west Texas. These storms will move eastward across the southern High Plains during the late afternoon and evening.
The strongest instability is forecast to develop this afternoon over the low Rolling Plains of northwest Texas, where model forecasts have MLCAPE peaking in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Late afternoon forecast soundings in northwest Texas have 0-6 km shear around 30 knots with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This environment will support the development of supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with supercells that become dominant. The greatest severe threat is expected to be in the evening as a broken line of storms moves into the stronger instability from the eastern Texas Panhandle southward into northwest Texas.
Mid Missouri Valley
An upper-level trough and an associated mid-level jet streak will move northeastward today across the north-central U.S. At the surface, an axis of low-level moisture will be in place from eastern Kansas northward into eastern Nebraska. Ahead of the trough, scattered thunderstorms will develop in the afternoon along and near the moist axis. Surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F will contribute to weak instability with MLCAPE likely peaking in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range across eastern Nebraska. RAP forecast soundings near Omaha suggest that 0-6 km shear will reach 35 knots as the trough approaches this afternoon, which would support the development of low-topped supercells capable of isolated severe wind gusts and hail. The severe threat is expected to persist into the early evening.
Central Gulf Coast States/Ohio and Tennessee Valleys
A negatively-tilted mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward today across the east-central U.S. Ahead of the trough, low-level moisture advection will take place. By early afternoon, surface dewpoints will be from the mid 60s to lower 70s F from the central Gulf Coast states northward into the southern Ohio Valley. Moderate instability is expected by afternoon across much of the region with MLCAPE peaking between 1500 and 2500 J/kg. Locally stronger instability is expected across central Mississippi, east-central Kentucky, eastern Tennessee and northeast Georgia. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms will develop and move northeastward across the moist airmass. Steepening low-level lapse rates will support a potential for isolated severe wind gusts. In addition, hodographs across this unstable airmass are forecast to be somewhat curved, which should also support a marginal tornado threat.
..Broyles/Chalmers.. 05/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Saturday, May 23
Outlook Summary
Scattered strong to potentially severe storms appear possible from the Raton Mesa vicinity into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles and southward near the middle Texas Coast. Additional severe thunderstorms will be possible in portions of central Georgia.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 220558
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST
### SUMMARY
Scattered strong to potentially severe storms appear possible from the Raton Mesa vicinity into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles and southward near the middle Texas Coast. Additional severe thunderstorms will be possible in portions of central Georgia.
Synopsis
A weak impulse will rotate across the central Plains on D2/Saturday as a surface low moves northward across the Ohio Valley. A trailing cold front will extend from the surface low back into the southern Plains. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible from the central/southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and across the Southeast. A few stronger storms may be possible across portions of the southern Plains and the southeastern US.
TX/OK Panhandles
Weak forcing for ascent and easterly upslope flow across the Caprock and into the higher terrain in eastern New Mexico will produce scattered thunderstorm activity Saturday afternoon. These are progged to move eastward downstream across the Panhandles into portions of western Oklahoma. Forecast soundings suggest a plume of steep to low mid-level lapse rates will still reside across the OK/TX Panhandles with mid 50s to 60s dew points and moderate instability. Shear profiles will be marginal, with deep layer shear around 25-30 kts. Nonetheless, a few more organized storms may produce strong to severe wind and instances of severe hail.
Middle Texas Coast
Thunderstorm activity is expected to form near the Edwards Plateau on Saturday afternoon and move south and east towards the middle Texas coast. Ahead of this, moderate to strong afternoon instability and steep low to mid-level lapse rates will be in place across portions of southern Texas. Some enhancement of deep-layer shear is forecast across south TX, which will may provide opportunity for cold pool organization and damaging wind.
Central/Southern Georgia
A weak shortwave will move across Georgia Saturday afternoon as widely scattered thunderstorm development occurs. Most guidance suggests deep layer shear around 30-40 kts which may allow for a few more organized cells. These may produce a few instances of strong to severe wind.
..Thornton.. 05/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Sunday, May 24
Outlook Summary
Widely scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible from the southern/central Plains to the southeastern US into the lower Ohio Valley. A few stronger storms may be possible across portions of the Nebraska and Iowa.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 220726
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN IOWA
### SUMMARY
Widely scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible from the southern/central Plains to the southeastern US into the lower Ohio Valley. A few stronger storms may be possible across portions of the Nebraska and Iowa.
Synopsis
Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are likely south of a stationary front extending from the southern Plains into the lower Ohio Valley. A few additional thunderstorms will be possible across the southern High Plains within the easterly upslope regime. A shortwave trough will move across the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest on D3/Sunday, which may be a focus of thunderstorm development across portions of Nebraska and Iowa. A few stronger thunderstorms may be possible in these regions.
Eastern Nebraska, southeastern South Dakota, western Iowa
As the shortwave moves through the central Plains, guidance has trended northward with moisture return into the central Plains by D3/Sunday. Some deterministic guidance (NAM, ECMWF, GFS) suggest that a plume of mid 50 to 60s dew points may advect up into eastern Nebraska near a northward moving pseudo warm frontal boundary. A narrow corridor of moderate instability may develop and overlap around 40-45 kts of deep layer shear across this region by Sunday afternoon. Forecast soundings depict supercells profiles, with steep low to mid-level lapse rates. While there remains some low confidence in moisture availability, trends in 00z guidance suggest adding in low end severe probabilities.
Southeast
A few stronger thunderstorms may develop across portions of the southeastern US Sunday afternoon. Though shear profiles are generally weak, moderate instability will be in place with strong daytime heating and potential for water laden down bursts and a few instances of strong to locally severe wind.
..Thornton.. 05/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Monday, May 25
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, May 24 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Monday, May 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, May 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, May 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, May 28 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210847 SPC AC 210847
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe potential will remain low through the beginning of the extended period. Weak troughing will continue across the central Plains D4/Sunday before height rises begin across the central US with a high amplitude ridge settling in from the west D5/Monday. This pattern will remain in place through early next week. Slow moisture return will be ongoing across much of the Plains into the Midwest with occasional rounds of widespread rainfall and thunderstorms, but generally weak flow and subsidence will keep organized storm potential low.
By the midweek, a trough is progged to begin deepening across the Pacific Northwest. As the upper low slowly shifts eastward, stronger flow will overspread the Intermountain West into the Northern Rockies, resulting in strengthening lee troughing across the central/northern Plains D6/Tuesday and D7/Wednesday. Moisture advection will spread northward amid strengthening southerly flow across the central/northern Plains. While there are some differences in the placement of upper-level and surface features, it is possible that severe chances will return across portions of northern High Plains. For now, confidence in exact corridors remains low given model guidance differences.
..Thornton.. 05/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, May 26
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, May 24 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Monday, May 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, May 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, May 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, May 28 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210847 SPC AC 210847
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe potential will remain low through the beginning of the extended period. Weak troughing will continue across the central Plains D4/Sunday before height rises begin across the central US with a high amplitude ridge settling in from the west D5/Monday. This pattern will remain in place through early next week. Slow moisture return will be ongoing across much of the Plains into the Midwest with occasional rounds of widespread rainfall and thunderstorms, but generally weak flow and subsidence will keep organized storm potential low.
By the midweek, a trough is progged to begin deepening across the Pacific Northwest. As the upper low slowly shifts eastward, stronger flow will overspread the Intermountain West into the Northern Rockies, resulting in strengthening lee troughing across the central/northern Plains D6/Tuesday and D7/Wednesday. Moisture advection will spread northward amid strengthening southerly flow across the central/northern Plains. While there are some differences in the placement of upper-level and surface features, it is possible that severe chances will return across portions of northern High Plains. For now, confidence in exact corridors remains low given model guidance differences.
..Thornton.. 05/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, May 27
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, May 24 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Monday, May 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, May 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, May 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, May 28 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210847 SPC AC 210847
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe potential will remain low through the beginning of the extended period. Weak troughing will continue across the central Plains D4/Sunday before height rises begin across the central US with a high amplitude ridge settling in from the west D5/Monday. This pattern will remain in place through early next week. Slow moisture return will be ongoing across much of the Plains into the Midwest with occasional rounds of widespread rainfall and thunderstorms, but generally weak flow and subsidence will keep organized storm potential low.
By the midweek, a trough is progged to begin deepening across the Pacific Northwest. As the upper low slowly shifts eastward, stronger flow will overspread the Intermountain West into the Northern Rockies, resulting in strengthening lee troughing across the central/northern Plains D6/Tuesday and D7/Wednesday. Moisture advection will spread northward amid strengthening southerly flow across the central/northern Plains. While there are some differences in the placement of upper-level and surface features, it is possible that severe chances will return across portions of northern High Plains. For now, confidence in exact corridors remains low given model guidance differences.
..Thornton.. 05/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, May 28
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, May 24 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Monday, May 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, May 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, May 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, May 28 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210847 SPC AC 210847
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe potential will remain low through the beginning of the extended period. Weak troughing will continue across the central Plains D4/Sunday before height rises begin across the central US with a high amplitude ridge settling in from the west D5/Monday. This pattern will remain in place through early next week. Slow moisture return will be ongoing across much of the Plains into the Midwest with occasional rounds of widespread rainfall and thunderstorms, but generally weak flow and subsidence will keep organized storm potential low.
By the midweek, a trough is progged to begin deepening across the Pacific Northwest. As the upper low slowly shifts eastward, stronger flow will overspread the Intermountain West into the Northern Rockies, resulting in strengthening lee troughing across the central/northern Plains D6/Tuesday and D7/Wednesday. Moisture advection will spread northward amid strengthening southerly flow across the central/northern Plains. While there are some differences in the placement of upper-level and surface features, it is possible that severe chances will return across portions of northern High Plains. For now, confidence in exact corridors remains low given model guidance differences.
..Thornton.. 05/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, May 22
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Saturday, May 23
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Sunday, May 24
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Monday, May 25
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, May 26
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, May 27
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, May 28
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Your Severe Outlook
Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.
Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.
Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.
About Severe Weather Outlook . com
SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.
- tornado hq - live severe weather warnings
- cyclocane - hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones
- tornado solitaire - play cards while you monitor the US severe weather threat
- tertremo - live view of earthquakes around the world
- earthquake solitaire - get live earthquake updates as you play your favorite card game