Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, September 28
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorm probability remains low on Monday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 280451
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorm probability remains low on Monday.
Synopsis
A broad mid/upper-level trough will move inland over California and begin to close off over the lower Colorado River Valley, while a weaker shortwave trough moves through the northern Rockies. Large-scale flow around the Southwest US trough will draw deep tropical moisture tied to Hurricane Polo and remnants of Odalys northward into the Southwest. Downstream of this, a weaker mid-level short-wave trough will move across the northern Rockies, mid-level ridging will persist across the central US and a weakening vertically stacked cyclone will begin to move northeast along the southern New England coast.
At the surface, a weak trough will sharpen along the lee of the northern Rockies ahead of a surface cold front that will move southeast into the northern and central Dakotas overnight.
### Northern High Plains
Persistent southerly low-level flow will keep modest moisture over the northern High Plains. Warm-advection showers and thunderstorms along the low-level jet axis Monday morning, followed by thickening mid/high-level clouds, will likely limit destabilization. Where filtered sunshine is able to promote stronger surface heating, a corridor of MUCAPE between 500-1500 J/kg (per mean HREF values) may develop by late afternoon near the surface trough from northeast Wyoming, western South Dakota, and southwest/south-central North Dakota.
Isolated storms may form near the trough in the late afternoon or early evening. Increasing mid-level flow ahead of the northern Rockies short-wave trough will provide sufficient vertical shear for a few thunderstorms capable of producing small to marginally severe hail. Additionally, locally strong thunderstorm wind gusts will be possible where the boundary layer becomes well mixed. However, modest mid-level warming, weak large-scale ascent, and uncertainty about whether intense storms form at all should keep any potential severe window narrow in space and time.
More elevated storms are possible Monday night as the low-level jet strengthens and the cold front moves into the northern and central Dakotas. Buoyancy will weaken overnight and become increasingly elevated, which should limit any severe wind threat after dark.
### Southwest
Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected as an anomalously moist airmass spreads north ahead of the western trough. Widespread clouds and weak midlevel lapse rates should keep instability generally weak and storm organization limited. An isolated wet downburst is possible from heavier cores in any pockets of strong heating, but the severe threat appears too low to warrant unconditional probabilities.
### Northeast
Showers and occasional embedded thunder – mainly near the coast – may continue with the slowly weakening cyclone. Instability will be weak, so severe thunderstorm potential is extremely low. However, strong onshore gradient winds may cause isolated/sporadic damage.
..Marsh/Weinman.. 09/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Tuesday, September 29
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 280552
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. Tuesday and Tuesday night.
DISCUSSION
An upper-level low will move across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday, as flow aloft remains southwesterly over much of the central U.S. Ahead of the system, weak instability will develop during the day from eastern Arizona and New Mexico northeastward into the central Plains. Thunderstorm development will be most concentrated over the southern Rockies where large-scale ascent will be stronger, but isolated storms could form as far northeast as the upper Mississippi Valley. Instability will remain too weak for a severe threat across the continental U.S. Tuesday and Tuesday night.
..Broyles.. 09/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Wednesday, September 30
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with large hail, wind damage and perhaps a tornado or two will be possible on Wednesday afternoon and evening in parts of west-central and northwest Texas into western and central Oklahoma. Isolated severe storms will also be possible in parts of western and central Kansas into far southern Nebraska.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 280730
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026
Valid 301200Z - 011200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with large hail, wind damage and perhaps a tornado or two will be possible on Wednesday afternoon and evening in parts of west-central and northwest Texas into western and central Oklahoma. Isolated severe storms will also be possible in parts of western and central Kansas into far southern Nebraska.
Southern Plains
An upper-level low and an associated 50 to 70 knot mid-level jet will move from the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains on Wednesday. A surface low will move eastward into western Kansas during the day, as a dryline sharpens from the far eastern Texas Panhandle southward into west Texas. To the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s F, which will contribute to a pocket of moderate instability from west Texas into southwest Oklahoma by afternoon. As large-scale ascent associated with the approaching system overspreads the dryline, thunderstorms will develop and increase in coverage in the mid to late afternoon. A line of storms is expected to organize and move eastward across the southern Plains during the late afternoon and evening.
Model forecasts vary concerning the exact position of the strongest instability on Wednesday. The latest ECMWF seems to be close to consensus, with MLCAPE increasing into the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range from east of Lubbock to near Lawton. This location will be just to the east of the mid-level jet, which will provide deep-layer shear favorable for severe thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings at 21Z near the forecast instability axis have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, which will support supercells with a threat of wind damage and hail. Although storm development may initially be discrete, a line is expected to form as convective coverage fills the east of the dryline. This line will be capable of wind damage. During the early evening, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to increase into the 200 to 250 m2/s2 range, suggesting that a tornado threat will also develop with embedded rotating storms in the line. Any severe threat should persist into the mid to late evening as the line moves eastward across central Oklahoma and central to southwest Texas.
Central Plains
At mid-levels, divergent southwesterly flow will be in place across the central Plains on Wednesday. At the surface, a low will move eastward into western Kansas with a dryline extending southward from the low. Surface heating and increasing low-level convergence near the dryline should result in thunderstorm development during the late afternoon. As the exit region of a mid-level jet overspreads western Kansas during the day, deep-layer shear will become strong enough to support organized convection. Storms are expected to increase in coverage and move eastward into central Kansas during the late afternoon and early evening. Although low-level lapse rates are forecast to be poor, MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg with 50 kts of 0-6 km shear should support an isolated severe threat. Severe wind gusts and hail will be possible with supercells or multicells, especially as low-level flow increases during the early evening.
..Broyles.. 09/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Thursday, October 1
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 30 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Thursday, October 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, October 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, October 3 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, October 4 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270914 SPC AC 270914
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0414 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6
During the mid-week, an upper-level low is forecast to move slowly eastward from the southern Rockies into the southern Plains. As the system approaches, low-level moisture will advect northward into the southern and central Plains. A pocket of moderate instability may develop over the southern High Plains by Wednesday afternoon. As surface heating is maximized Wednesday afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to form along and near the instability axis. A mid-level jet, associated with the approaching system, is forecast to move into the southern High Plains in the afternoon. This feature will increase deep-layer shear. The timing of the mid-level jet is still in question, but if the mid-level jet can move into the southern Plains soon enough, then a severe threat could develop. Under this scenario, isolated supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible.
From Thursday into Friday, the upper-level trough is forecast to remain over the southern High Plains. Ahead of the slow-moving system, a moist and somewhat unstable airmass is forecast to be in place both Thursday and Friday over parts of east-central Texas. On these two days, deep-layer shear may be strong enough for an isolated severe threat, mainly with storms that form near the instability axis.
Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8
Over the weekend, an upper-level trough is forecast to move across the central U.S. Ahead of the trough, a moist and somewhat unstable airmass is forecast to be in place over much of the Southeast, where scattered to numerous thunderstorms will be possible each day. Of the two days, the strongest instability is forecast to be on Sunday, when an isolated severe threat will be possible. Uncertainty regarding the spatial extent and magnitude is substantial at this range.
..Broyles.. 09/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, October 2
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 30 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Thursday, October 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, October 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, October 3 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, October 4 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270914 SPC AC 270914
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0414 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6
During the mid-week, an upper-level low is forecast to move slowly eastward from the southern Rockies into the southern Plains. As the system approaches, low-level moisture will advect northward into the southern and central Plains. A pocket of moderate instability may develop over the southern High Plains by Wednesday afternoon. As surface heating is maximized Wednesday afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to form along and near the instability axis. A mid-level jet, associated with the approaching system, is forecast to move into the southern High Plains in the afternoon. This feature will increase deep-layer shear. The timing of the mid-level jet is still in question, but if the mid-level jet can move into the southern Plains soon enough, then a severe threat could develop. Under this scenario, isolated supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible.
From Thursday into Friday, the upper-level trough is forecast to remain over the southern High Plains. Ahead of the slow-moving system, a moist and somewhat unstable airmass is forecast to be in place both Thursday and Friday over parts of east-central Texas. On these two days, deep-layer shear may be strong enough for an isolated severe threat, mainly with storms that form near the instability axis.
Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8
Over the weekend, an upper-level trough is forecast to move across the central U.S. Ahead of the trough, a moist and somewhat unstable airmass is forecast to be in place over much of the Southeast, where scattered to numerous thunderstorms will be possible each day. Of the two days, the strongest instability is forecast to be on Sunday, when an isolated severe threat will be possible. Uncertainty regarding the spatial extent and magnitude is substantial at this range.
..Broyles.. 09/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, October 3
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 30 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Thursday, October 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, October 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, October 3 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, October 4 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270914 SPC AC 270914
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0414 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6
During the mid-week, an upper-level low is forecast to move slowly eastward from the southern Rockies into the southern Plains. As the system approaches, low-level moisture will advect northward into the southern and central Plains. A pocket of moderate instability may develop over the southern High Plains by Wednesday afternoon. As surface heating is maximized Wednesday afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to form along and near the instability axis. A mid-level jet, associated with the approaching system, is forecast to move into the southern High Plains in the afternoon. This feature will increase deep-layer shear. The timing of the mid-level jet is still in question, but if the mid-level jet can move into the southern Plains soon enough, then a severe threat could develop. Under this scenario, isolated supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible.
From Thursday into Friday, the upper-level trough is forecast to remain over the southern High Plains. Ahead of the slow-moving system, a moist and somewhat unstable airmass is forecast to be in place both Thursday and Friday over parts of east-central Texas. On these two days, deep-layer shear may be strong enough for an isolated severe threat, mainly with storms that form near the instability axis.
Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8
Over the weekend, an upper-level trough is forecast to move across the central U.S. Ahead of the trough, a moist and somewhat unstable airmass is forecast to be in place over much of the Southeast, where scattered to numerous thunderstorms will be possible each day. Of the two days, the strongest instability is forecast to be on Sunday, when an isolated severe threat will be possible. Uncertainty regarding the spatial extent and magnitude is substantial at this range.
..Broyles.. 09/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, October 4
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 30 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Thursday, October 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, October 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, October 3 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, October 4 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270914 SPC AC 270914
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0414 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6
During the mid-week, an upper-level low is forecast to move slowly eastward from the southern Rockies into the southern Plains. As the system approaches, low-level moisture will advect northward into the southern and central Plains. A pocket of moderate instability may develop over the southern High Plains by Wednesday afternoon. As surface heating is maximized Wednesday afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to form along and near the instability axis. A mid-level jet, associated with the approaching system, is forecast to move into the southern High Plains in the afternoon. This feature will increase deep-layer shear. The timing of the mid-level jet is still in question, but if the mid-level jet can move into the southern Plains soon enough, then a severe threat could develop. Under this scenario, isolated supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible.
From Thursday into Friday, the upper-level trough is forecast to remain over the southern High Plains. Ahead of the slow-moving system, a moist and somewhat unstable airmass is forecast to be in place both Thursday and Friday over parts of east-central Texas. On these two days, deep-layer shear may be strong enough for an isolated severe threat, mainly with storms that form near the instability axis.
Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8
Over the weekend, an upper-level trough is forecast to move across the central U.S. Ahead of the trough, a moist and somewhat unstable airmass is forecast to be in place over much of the Southeast, where scattered to numerous thunderstorms will be possible each day. Of the two days, the strongest instability is forecast to be on Sunday, when an isolated severe threat will be possible. Uncertainty regarding the spatial extent and magnitude is substantial at this range.
..Broyles.. 09/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, September 28
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, September 29
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Wednesday, September 30
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Thursday, October 1
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, October 2
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, October 3
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, October 4
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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