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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Thursday, April 9

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts are expected late this afternoon and evening across parts of Kansas, southeast Nebraska, and northwest Missouri. Isolated severe thunderstorms may also occur across portions of the south-central High Plains and northern California/southwest Oregon.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 091943

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026

Valid 092000Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts are expected late this afternoon and evening across parts of Kansas, southeast Nebraska, and northwest Missouri. Isolated severe thunderstorms may also occur across portions of the south-central High Plains and northern California/southwest Oregon.

20z Update central and southern Plains

Thunderstorm development remains likely late this afternoon and this evening along the frontal zone from southern NE into northeast KS. While remnant cloud cover has slowed destabilization, sufficient buoyancy and supercell wind profiles will likely support a risk for hail, damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two this afternoon/evening. See MCD #367 for specific short-term information.

Farther south along the trailing surface trough/dryline, more isolated thunderstorm development is expected across the TX Panhandle and far eastern NM. High cloud bases with deep inverted-v structures could support isolated severe wind gusts with the heavier cores. Storm coverage is likely to decrease farther south where weaker forcing and overall more limited buoyancy is present. Still, isolated storms are possible, and the 5% wind area was expanded southward slightly for the latest hi-res guidance.

CA and OR

East of an upper low, broad-scale ascent over a modestly warm/moist air mass was supporting widely scattered thunderstorms over portions of northern CA and southern OR. While overall buoyancy is weak (generally below 500 J/kg of MLCAPE), strengthening southerly flow aloft could support a few organized clusters or transient supercells capable of producing isolated strong to severe gusts and some hail.

..Lyons.. 04/09/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026/

Southern High Plains into the Central Plains and Lower/Mid Missouri Valley

Ongoing precipitation/thunderstorms and related cloud cover across north-central/northeast KS into southeast NE/southwest IA is being aided by modest low-level warm/moist advection in the vicinity of a surface front. Current expectations are for this activity to gradually diminish in coverage as it shifts eastward into the northwest MO/southern IA. In its wake, daytime heating may be hampered a bit by residual cloudiness across much of north-central/northeast KS. Even so, continued northward low-level moisture advection is anticipated across the southern/central Plains through the afternoon, with surface dewpoints generally in the upper 40s to low/mid 50s. This, coupled with steep mid-level lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft, will aid in the development of moderate instability (MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg) along/south of a front draped generally west to east across northern KS/MO.

Stronger ascent aloft and enhanced westerly flow at mid/upper levels will remain mostly displaced to the north of the central Plains today, as multiple mid-level perturbations rotate through mean mid/upper-level troughing over central/eastern Canada. Still, most guidance continues to suggest that minimal MLCIN will exist in the vicinity of the front in north-central/northeast KS and southeast NE by 22-23Z as surface temperatures warm into the 70s/low 80s. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across this area by late afternoon/early evening, with modest south-southwesterly low-level winds veering to west-northwesterly at mid/upper levels supporting 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear.

Initial convective development will likely be supercellular and pose a threat for mainly large hail (isolated 2+ inches in diameter possible). Fairly large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads with a well-mixed boundary layer and related high cloud bases render considerable uncertainty regarding tornado potential. But, some risk for a tornado or two may focus along/near the front through early evening as effective SRH gradually increases in tandem with a strengthening south-southwesterly low-level jet. Otherwise, the risk for severe/damaging winds may gradually increase through mid evening as thunderstorms tend to cluster/grow modestly upscale. But, the severe wind risk will likely become more limited by late evening with the loss of daytime heating and increasing MLCIN with southward/eastward extent.

Isolated thunderstorms may also develop this afternoon farther southwest across the central/southern High Plains along and east of a sharpening surface dryline/lee trough. Overall convective coverage remains highly uncertain given nebulous/weak large-scale ascent this far south. Still, some risk for occasional hail and severe gusts should exist with any sustained cells or clusters that can develop and spread east-southeastward through the late afternoon/early evening.

Northern California/Southwest Oregon

As an upper-level low over the eastern Pacific approaches the West Coast today, large-scale ascent will overspread portions of northern CA into southern OR with scattered thunderstorm development expected into afternoon. Sufficient moisture and instability should exist inland beneath strengthening deep-layer southwesterly winds ahead of the trough to support semi-organized convection. As low-level lapse rates gradually steepen and flow aloft increases, this activity may be capable of producing isolated strong to severe gusts and possibly some hail.

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

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Outlook for Friday, April 10

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible on Friday over parts of the southern and central Plains eastward into the Ozarks. A couple strong storms may occur late from northern Nevada into southwest Idaho.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 091722

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO EASTWARD TOWARD THE OZARKS

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible on Friday over parts of the southern and central Plains eastward into the Ozarks. A couple strong storms may occur late from northern Nevada into southwest Idaho.

Synopsis

An upper trough will progress from the Great Lakes region into the Northeast, with temporary ridging across the Plains. To the west, a large-scale upper trough will develop, with a lead wave moving into the Great Basin overnight while a deeper upper low drops south off the West Coast. Despite the ridging over the Plains, midlevel temperatures will remain seasonably cool with around -14 C over KS.

At the surface, high pressure will move from the northern Plains toward the Great Lakes, with a cold front moving across the Northeast and into the OH Valley. Farther west, this front will decelerate from southern MO into northern OK, and become a warm front overnight into southern KS. Elsewhere, a surface trough will develop from ID into NV as height falls occur late.

From northeast NM eastward across southern KS and northern OK

Showers and storms may be ongoing Friday morning from southeast KS into northern OK, southwest MO and into northwest AR, with perhaps some strong gust potential. This activity may weaken during the day. To the west, strong heating will occur south of the main boundary, with 50 F to near 60 F dewpoints resulting in 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE. Backed surface winds near the boundary will likely aid storm development into northeast NM late in the afternoon, with activity moving into the OK/TX Panhandles during the evening. Activity will be slow moving, with localized hail or wind potential.

Northwest NV into southwest ID

Strong heating beneath cool midlevel temperatures will result in steep lapse rates across the region as the upper trough gradually approaches. Deep-layer shear will be weak during the day but will increase to 35-40 kt by evening as height falls arrive. Given the later influence of the upper trough and marginal combination of shear and instability, will maintain no severe probabilities at this time. However, a cell or two could produce locally strong gusts or small/marginal hail into the evening.

..Jewell.. 04/09/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Saturday, April 11

Outlook Summary

Scattered thunderstorms, some producing hail and strong gusts, will be possible on Saturday across parts of west Texas and eastern New Mexico. Isolated strong storms cannot be ruled out affecting parts of central California.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 091933

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF WEST TEXAS AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO

### SUMMARY

Scattered thunderstorms, some producing hail and strong gusts, will be possible on Saturday across parts of west Texas and eastern New Mexico. Isolated strong storms cannot be ruled out affecting parts of central California.

Synopsis

An upper low will swing southeastward into central/northern CA late on Saturday, providing lift and widespread precipitation. To the east, an upper ridge will be located over the MS Valley during the day, and this will shift east toward the Appalachians by 12Z Sunday. In between these features, a broad zone of modest southwest flow aloft will encompass the Rockies and Plains states.

At the surface, a large area of high pressure will exist over the eastern states, with gusty south winds helping to bring 50s to 60s F dewpoints across TX and OK. A lee trough over the High Plains will be a focus for afternoon storm development, where shear may support areas of severe storms. Elsewhere, low pressure will also affect parts of central CA, moving ashore late in the day. This may also focus a few strong storms.

Southern Plains

Low pressure will deepen over the northern and central High Plains, with gusty south winds bringing 50s F dewpoints as far north as NE by 00Z. Southeasterly surface winds will also bring moisture westward across west TX and into eastern NM. Here, strong heating and a lack of cap will result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms during the afternoon. Shear will not be strong, with only 25-35 kt southwest winds at 500 mb. Some storms may produce hail, and several storms or clusters may propagate eastward through the night with areas of strong to severe gusts possible.

A separate area from northeast CO into KS and western NE may support a few severe cells producing hail as well, as this area will experience stronger heating near the deepening surface trough, and with locally backed surface winds.

Central CA

Strong cooling aloft will occur during the afternoon and evening as the upper low moves toward the area. Weak instability will develop as lapse rates aloft steepen, though just a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE is currently forecast. Isolated cells may occur in the central valley late in the afternoon, and, along a cold front as it approaches the central coast. Gusty winds and perhaps small hail will be possible. Severe potential is more uncertain three days out, but the setup will continue to be monitored in later outlooks.

..Jewell.. 04/09/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Sunday, April 12

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090858 SPC AC 090858

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Sunday/Day 4 to Tuesday/Day 6

On Sunday, southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the nation. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located from the southern Plains north-northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Much of this corridor is forecast to become moderately unstable by afternoon. The greatest potential for severe storms will likely be in the southern and central Plains, where some solutions have a subtle shortwave trough. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will be favorable for supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts.

Mid-level flow is forecast to gradually strengthen across the central U.S. on Monday. In response moisture advection will continue in the Great Plains. By Monday afternoon, moderate instability should be in place from north Texas northward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across this airmass Monday afternoon and evening. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will again be favorable for severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. A tornado threat may also develop.

On Tuesday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the southern Rockies, as an associated mid-level jet streak ejects northeastward across the southern High Plains. A moderately unstable airmass will likely be in place by afternoon from the southern Plains northeastward into mid to upper Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes. Strong deep-layer shear is forecast over the southern and central Plains, where a substantial severe threat will be possible. Supercells with large hail, wind damage and tornadoes are expected Tuesday afternoon and evening. An upgrade will be possible across parts of the threat area, once confidence increases on the timing of the ejecting trough.

Wednesday/Day 7 and Thursday/Day 8

The upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. on Wednesday, as a cold front advances southeastward through the Great Plains and Upper Midwest. Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of much of the front. Thunderstorms that form in areas that destabilize sufficiently could have a severe threat. The severe potential will likely continue into Thursday, as the front advances southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. However, model spread concerning the position of the front and timing of the trough increases substantially toward mid week, suggesting a lot of uncertainty exists at this extended range in the period.

..Broyles.. 04/09/2026

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Outlook for Monday, April 13

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090858 SPC AC 090858

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Sunday/Day 4 to Tuesday/Day 6

On Sunday, southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the nation. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located from the southern Plains north-northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Much of this corridor is forecast to become moderately unstable by afternoon. The greatest potential for severe storms will likely be in the southern and central Plains, where some solutions have a subtle shortwave trough. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will be favorable for supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts.

Mid-level flow is forecast to gradually strengthen across the central U.S. on Monday. In response moisture advection will continue in the Great Plains. By Monday afternoon, moderate instability should be in place from north Texas northward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across this airmass Monday afternoon and evening. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will again be favorable for severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. A tornado threat may also develop.

On Tuesday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the southern Rockies, as an associated mid-level jet streak ejects northeastward across the southern High Plains. A moderately unstable airmass will likely be in place by afternoon from the southern Plains northeastward into mid to upper Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes. Strong deep-layer shear is forecast over the southern and central Plains, where a substantial severe threat will be possible. Supercells with large hail, wind damage and tornadoes are expected Tuesday afternoon and evening. An upgrade will be possible across parts of the threat area, once confidence increases on the timing of the ejecting trough.

Wednesday/Day 7 and Thursday/Day 8

The upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. on Wednesday, as a cold front advances southeastward through the Great Plains and Upper Midwest. Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of much of the front. Thunderstorms that form in areas that destabilize sufficiently could have a severe threat. The severe potential will likely continue into Thursday, as the front advances southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. However, model spread concerning the position of the front and timing of the trough increases substantially toward mid week, suggesting a lot of uncertainty exists at this extended range in the period.

..Broyles.. 04/09/2026

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Outlook for Tuesday, April 14

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090858 SPC AC 090858

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Sunday/Day 4 to Tuesday/Day 6

On Sunday, southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the nation. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located from the southern Plains north-northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Much of this corridor is forecast to become moderately unstable by afternoon. The greatest potential for severe storms will likely be in the southern and central Plains, where some solutions have a subtle shortwave trough. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will be favorable for supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts.

Mid-level flow is forecast to gradually strengthen across the central U.S. on Monday. In response moisture advection will continue in the Great Plains. By Monday afternoon, moderate instability should be in place from north Texas northward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across this airmass Monday afternoon and evening. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will again be favorable for severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. A tornado threat may also develop.

On Tuesday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the southern Rockies, as an associated mid-level jet streak ejects northeastward across the southern High Plains. A moderately unstable airmass will likely be in place by afternoon from the southern Plains northeastward into mid to upper Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes. Strong deep-layer shear is forecast over the southern and central Plains, where a substantial severe threat will be possible. Supercells with large hail, wind damage and tornadoes are expected Tuesday afternoon and evening. An upgrade will be possible across parts of the threat area, once confidence increases on the timing of the ejecting trough.

Wednesday/Day 7 and Thursday/Day 8

The upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. on Wednesday, as a cold front advances southeastward through the Great Plains and Upper Midwest. Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of much of the front. Thunderstorms that form in areas that destabilize sufficiently could have a severe threat. The severe potential will likely continue into Thursday, as the front advances southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. However, model spread concerning the position of the front and timing of the trough increases substantially toward mid week, suggesting a lot of uncertainty exists at this extended range in the period.

..Broyles.. 04/09/2026

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Outlook for Wednesday, April 15

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090858 SPC AC 090858

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Sunday/Day 4 to Tuesday/Day 6

On Sunday, southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the nation. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located from the southern Plains north-northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Much of this corridor is forecast to become moderately unstable by afternoon. The greatest potential for severe storms will likely be in the southern and central Plains, where some solutions have a subtle shortwave trough. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will be favorable for supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts.

Mid-level flow is forecast to gradually strengthen across the central U.S. on Monday. In response moisture advection will continue in the Great Plains. By Monday afternoon, moderate instability should be in place from north Texas northward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across this airmass Monday afternoon and evening. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will again be favorable for severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. A tornado threat may also develop.

On Tuesday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the southern Rockies, as an associated mid-level jet streak ejects northeastward across the southern High Plains. A moderately unstable airmass will likely be in place by afternoon from the southern Plains northeastward into mid to upper Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes. Strong deep-layer shear is forecast over the southern and central Plains, where a substantial severe threat will be possible. Supercells with large hail, wind damage and tornadoes are expected Tuesday afternoon and evening. An upgrade will be possible across parts of the threat area, once confidence increases on the timing of the ejecting trough.

Wednesday/Day 7 and Thursday/Day 8

The upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. on Wednesday, as a cold front advances southeastward through the Great Plains and Upper Midwest. Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of much of the front. Thunderstorms that form in areas that destabilize sufficiently could have a severe threat. The severe potential will likely continue into Thursday, as the front advances southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. However, model spread concerning the position of the front and timing of the trough increases substantially toward mid week, suggesting a lot of uncertainty exists at this extended range in the period.

..Broyles.. 04/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Thursday, April 16

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090858 SPC AC 090858

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Sunday/Day 4 to Tuesday/Day 6

On Sunday, southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the nation. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located from the southern Plains north-northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Much of this corridor is forecast to become moderately unstable by afternoon. The greatest potential for severe storms will likely be in the southern and central Plains, where some solutions have a subtle shortwave trough. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will be favorable for supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts.

Mid-level flow is forecast to gradually strengthen across the central U.S. on Monday. In response moisture advection will continue in the Great Plains. By Monday afternoon, moderate instability should be in place from north Texas northward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across this airmass Monday afternoon and evening. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will again be favorable for severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. A tornado threat may also develop.

On Tuesday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the southern Rockies, as an associated mid-level jet streak ejects northeastward across the southern High Plains. A moderately unstable airmass will likely be in place by afternoon from the southern Plains northeastward into mid to upper Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes. Strong deep-layer shear is forecast over the southern and central Plains, where a substantial severe threat will be possible. Supercells with large hail, wind damage and tornadoes are expected Tuesday afternoon and evening. An upgrade will be possible across parts of the threat area, once confidence increases on the timing of the ejecting trough.

Wednesday/Day 7 and Thursday/Day 8

The upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. on Wednesday, as a cold front advances southeastward through the Great Plains and Upper Midwest. Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of much of the front. Thunderstorms that form in areas that destabilize sufficiently could have a severe threat. The severe potential will likely continue into Thursday, as the front advances southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. However, model spread concerning the position of the front and timing of the trough increases substantially toward mid week, suggesting a lot of uncertainty exists at this extended range in the period.

..Broyles.. 04/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Thursday, April 9

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Friday, April 10

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 5%

Saturday, April 11

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Sunday, April 12

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Monday, April 13

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Tuesday, April 14

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Wednesday, April 15

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Thursday, April 16

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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