Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, June 21
Outlook Summary
Severe storms are possible from the central High Plains into the Ohio Valley, mainly this afternoon into tonight. Large to very large hail, severe winds, and tornadoes will be possible. Some strong-tornado potential could develop across parts of Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana during the afternoon and early evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 210554
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS AND OHIO VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Severe storms are possible from the central High Plains into the Ohio Valley, mainly this afternoon into tonight. Large to very large hail, severe winds, and tornadoes will be possible. Some strong-tornado potential could develop across parts of Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana during the afternoon and early evening.
Parts of MO into the Ohio Valley
An all-hazards severe threat, including some conditional strong-tornado potential, is still evident from parts of MO into the Ohio Valley later today, though uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude and most favored corridor of the greatest threat. No upgrade was made with this outlook, though greater tornado and/or wind probabilities may eventually be needed, depending on how the uncertainties are resolved.
Guidance generally suggests that an MCV currently evolving across KS will move across central/northern MO through the morning, before moving into parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley through the afternoon. In association with the MCV, a surface low may deepen along a front and move across parts of central MO/IL. Guidance varies regarding the strength of the surface low, enhancement to low-level shear/SRH, and magnitude of destabilization in advance of the MCV. However, in general, rich moisture and enlarged low-level hodographs will support development of a storm cluster with embedded supercells and/or mesovortices, if sufficient diurnal destabilization occurs. Tornadoes and damaging winds could accompany any organized cells/clusters. Strong-tornado potential could evolve if any supercells can be sustained within this regime.
In the wake of the MCV, relatively strong heating will support at least moderate destabilization along the trailing front across parts of central/southern MO. While some weakening/veering of low-level flow is expected after the passage of the MCV, deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for organized development along the boundary, which could pose an all-hazards severe threat from late afternoon into the evening from south-central MO into the lower OH Valley.
Central High Plains into the Ozarks
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough initially over WY will move toward KS/NE later today. A 35-50 kt midlevel jet maximum attendant to this shortwave will impinge upon parts of the central and southern High Plains. An outflow-influenced front will likely extend across parts of southern KS, with moist easterly flow expected north of this boundary by late afternoon, while strong heating will occur south of the boundary. Scattered afternoon storm development is expected within the post-frontal regime from southeast WY/northeast CO into western NE/KS. Moderate buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear will support supercell development, with a threat of large to very large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado.
Widely scattered afternoon storm development will also be possible in the vicinity of the surface front, from northwest OK into southeast KS/southwest MO. Moderate to strong buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear will support supercell development with initial storms along the front, with some clustering possible later in the convective evolution. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and some tornado potential could accompany the strongest afternoon/evening storms.
Late tonight into early Monday morning, guidance generally suggests development of one or more upscale growing clusters, evolving from either diurnal convection, or nocturnal elevated redevelopment. Swaths of strong to severe gusts could accompany any upscale growth, though guidance varies considerably regarding the most favorable corridors late in the forecast period.
..Dean/Squitieri.. 06/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Monday, June 22
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe storms appear possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic Monday afternoon and evening. More isolated severe weather is expected along a frontal zone that will extend from the southern Appalachians to the Mid-South and southern Plains. Additionally, a widely scattered severe weather threat is expected across the central and northern High Plains Monday afternoon and evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 210559
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND FOR THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe storms appear possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic Monday afternoon and evening. More isolated severe weather is expected along a frontal zone that will extend from the southern Appalachians to the Mid-South and southern Plains. Additionally, a widely scattered severe weather threat is expected across the central and northern High Plains Monday afternoon and evening.
Synopsis
Mostly zonal flow is expected across the CONUS on Monday with multiple embedded shortwave troughs within the flow pattern from the central Plains to the Mid-Atlantic. A weak surface low is expected to movefrom the Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic, associated with the strongest of the mid-level jet streaks within the broader flow. An additional lee cyclone is expected to develop along the southern High Plains during the period with a surface front connecting these two features.
Mid-Atlantic
Moderate instability is forecast to develop east of the Appalachians from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic on Monday beneath up to 50 knots of mid-level flow. This combination of shear and instability will support storm organization, including the potential for some supercells. Neutral to potentially weak height rises may limit storm coverage across the region, which may preclude a more widespread severe wind threat. However, given the steep low-level lapse rates where temperatures are forecast to warm into the mid 90s, damaging winds will be likely from any storms that develop.
A narrow zone near the warm front will have a greater tornado threat given the enhanced shear from a compact, but strong, low-level jet across northern Virginia into the DelMarVa. A 5% tornado contour may eventually be needed within this zone, but given the relatively narrow zone of threat and some uncertainty where this front will be by Monday afternoon/evening, higher probabilities will not be added at this time.
Central/Northern High Plains
Weak lee cyclogenesis is forecast across eastern Wyoming during the day Monday. This will strengthen upslope flow across the central/northern Plains. Moderate instability and strengthening west-northwesterly flow aloft of 40 to 45 knots will result in an environment that supports widely scattered supercells with the potential for large to very large hail and perhaps some isolated wind gusts.
Northwest Texas and Vicinity
A more conditional severe weather threat will exist across northwest Texas and vicinity where there is potential for an outflow boundary from the morning MCS across Oklahoma to intersect the dryline. Height rises aloft and strong inhibition should mostly suppress convection. However, mesoscale convergence at the intersection of these boundaries could result in one or two supercells capable of all severe hazards. However, given the conditionality of this mesoscale threat, higher probabilities have not been added at this time.
Mid-Mississippi Valley
Moderate to strong destabilization is forecast ahead of and south of a morning MCS that should be in the Oklahoma/Arkansas region on Monday morning. Reinvigoration of the ongoing MCS or additional development may result in some isolated damaging wind threat. However, overall very weak mid-level lapse rates and weaker shear where the greatest instability is forecast, should keep the threat mostly marginal/isolated.
..Bentley.. 06/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Tuesday, June 23
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe storms are expected across the central High Plains on Tuesday with isolated severe storms possible into the Upper Midwest. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 210723
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe storms are expected across the central High Plains on Tuesday with isolated severe storms possible into the Upper Midwest. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats.
Synopsis
A low-amplitude ridge across the western CONUS will build slowly northward as a trough moves south from Alberta into the northern Plains. As this pattern continues to evolve, mid-level flow will strengthen across the Rockies and into the Plains. This will result in strengthening lee cyclogenesis across the southern High Plains. Farther east, a cold front will move off of the East Coast during the day Tuesday.
Central High Plains into the central Plains
Strengthening upslope flow to the north of the developing lee cyclone should result in storm development by mid-afternoon across eastern Colorado on Tuesday. As mid-level flow strengthens to near 50 knots, this strong shear combined with moderate to strong instability will support supercells capable of large to very large hail and some severe winds. Expect these supercells to eventually congeal into one or more clusters as they move east during the evening, with an increasing severe wind threat.
Upper Midwest
A weak surface low associated with the mid-level trough moving south out of Canada will settle into the Upper Midwest on Tuesday. A cold front will extend southwestward from this feature with dewpoints into the low 60s ahead of it. This should produce sufficient instability for scattered storm development. Some damaging wind gusts may be possible with the strongest storms.
Southeast
A cold front will move off the East Coast during the day on Tuesday. Most guidance shows the front offshore before sufficient instability develops for a severe storm threat along the Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina coasts. Therefore, have not added probabilities at this time. However, if the cold front slows or if greater instability develops than currently forecast, a Marginal Risk may be needed in later outlooks.
..Bentley.. 06/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Wednesday, June 24
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, June 24 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Thursday, June 25 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Friday, June 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, June 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, June 28 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210811 SPC AC 210811
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday - Central High Plains
As high pressure builds into the central/northern Plains on Wednesday and Thursday, upslope flow will remain persistent across eastern Colorado and eastern Wyoming. Moderate to strong instability is expected in this area with 40 to 50 knots of west-northwesterly flow aloft. This should result in a favorable upslope regime capable of supercells. A relatively narrow unstable corridor should keep the most favorable severe threat somewhat confined to the higher elevation prairies where instability and upslope flow will be maximized.
Friday and Saturday, ridging is forecast to translate east across the Plains, which may lead to a relative lull in severe weather threat. However, by Sunday and into early next week, there is a strong signal for troughing and moderate to strong mid-level flow across the northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest. Several days of substantial severe weather are possible during this period. However, at this time, the timing and amplitude of these features make it challenging to highlight specific areas. As the evolution of this mid-level pattern becomes more clear, severe weather probabilities may be added in later outlooks.
..Bentley.. 06/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, June 25
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, June 24 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Thursday, June 25 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Friday, June 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, June 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, June 28 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210811 SPC AC 210811
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday - Central High Plains
As high pressure builds into the central/northern Plains on Wednesday and Thursday, upslope flow will remain persistent across eastern Colorado and eastern Wyoming. Moderate to strong instability is expected in this area with 40 to 50 knots of west-northwesterly flow aloft. This should result in a favorable upslope regime capable of supercells. A relatively narrow unstable corridor should keep the most favorable severe threat somewhat confined to the higher elevation prairies where instability and upslope flow will be maximized.
Friday and Saturday, ridging is forecast to translate east across the Plains, which may lead to a relative lull in severe weather threat. However, by Sunday and into early next week, there is a strong signal for troughing and moderate to strong mid-level flow across the northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest. Several days of substantial severe weather are possible during this period. However, at this time, the timing and amplitude of these features make it challenging to highlight specific areas. As the evolution of this mid-level pattern becomes more clear, severe weather probabilities may be added in later outlooks.
..Bentley.. 06/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, June 26
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, June 24 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Thursday, June 25 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Friday, June 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, June 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, June 28 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210811 SPC AC 210811
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday - Central High Plains
As high pressure builds into the central/northern Plains on Wednesday and Thursday, upslope flow will remain persistent across eastern Colorado and eastern Wyoming. Moderate to strong instability is expected in this area with 40 to 50 knots of west-northwesterly flow aloft. This should result in a favorable upslope regime capable of supercells. A relatively narrow unstable corridor should keep the most favorable severe threat somewhat confined to the higher elevation prairies where instability and upslope flow will be maximized.
Friday and Saturday, ridging is forecast to translate east across the Plains, which may lead to a relative lull in severe weather threat. However, by Sunday and into early next week, there is a strong signal for troughing and moderate to strong mid-level flow across the northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest. Several days of substantial severe weather are possible during this period. However, at this time, the timing and amplitude of these features make it challenging to highlight specific areas. As the evolution of this mid-level pattern becomes more clear, severe weather probabilities may be added in later outlooks.
..Bentley.. 06/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, June 27
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, June 24 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Thursday, June 25 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Friday, June 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, June 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, June 28 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210811 SPC AC 210811
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday - Central High Plains
As high pressure builds into the central/northern Plains on Wednesday and Thursday, upslope flow will remain persistent across eastern Colorado and eastern Wyoming. Moderate to strong instability is expected in this area with 40 to 50 knots of west-northwesterly flow aloft. This should result in a favorable upslope regime capable of supercells. A relatively narrow unstable corridor should keep the most favorable severe threat somewhat confined to the higher elevation prairies where instability and upslope flow will be maximized.
Friday and Saturday, ridging is forecast to translate east across the Plains, which may lead to a relative lull in severe weather threat. However, by Sunday and into early next week, there is a strong signal for troughing and moderate to strong mid-level flow across the northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest. Several days of substantial severe weather are possible during this period. However, at this time, the timing and amplitude of these features make it challenging to highlight specific areas. As the evolution of this mid-level pattern becomes more clear, severe weather probabilities may be added in later outlooks.
..Bentley.. 06/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, June 28
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, June 24 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Thursday, June 25 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Friday, June 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, June 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, June 28 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210811 SPC AC 210811
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday - Central High Plains
As high pressure builds into the central/northern Plains on Wednesday and Thursday, upslope flow will remain persistent across eastern Colorado and eastern Wyoming. Moderate to strong instability is expected in this area with 40 to 50 knots of west-northwesterly flow aloft. This should result in a favorable upslope regime capable of supercells. A relatively narrow unstable corridor should keep the most favorable severe threat somewhat confined to the higher elevation prairies where instability and upslope flow will be maximized.
Friday and Saturday, ridging is forecast to translate east across the Plains, which may lead to a relative lull in severe weather threat. However, by Sunday and into early next week, there is a strong signal for troughing and moderate to strong mid-level flow across the northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest. Several days of substantial severe weather are possible during this period. However, at this time, the timing and amplitude of these features make it challenging to highlight specific areas. As the evolution of this mid-level pattern becomes more clear, severe weather probabilities may be added in later outlooks.
..Bentley.. 06/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, June 21
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Monday, June 22
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Tuesday, June 23
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Wednesday, June 24
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Thursday, June 25
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Friday, June 26
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, June 27
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, June 28
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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