Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, December 30
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 301923
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025
Valid 302000Z - 311200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
Synopsis
No changes are needed with the 20z Day 1 Update. Thunderstorm activity is not expected through tonight/early Wednesday.
..Leitman.. 12/30/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025/
Synopsis and Discussion
With cool/stable conditions prevalent behind a cold front across a large portion of the CONUS, thunderstorms are not forecast today.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Wednesday, December 31
Outlook Summary
Isolated thunderstorms are possible during the early morning of New Year's Day along coastal southern California.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 301723
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated thunderstorms are possible during the early morning of New Year's Day along coastal southern California.
Coastal southern CA
An initially slow-moving upper low is forecast to eject northeastward as a shortwave trough and approach coastal southern CA by the end of the period. The primary midlevel cold core is forecast to still be offshore at the end of the period (12Z Thursday). However, some moistening beneath modest cooling aloft could support isolated thunderstorm potential late in the period across the Channel Islands and eventually coastal areas of southern CA. Some enlargement of low-level hodographs is expected as this system approaches, but with scant buoyancy and only modest effective shear, organized severe potential appears low.
..Dean.. 12/30/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Thursday, January 1
Outlook Summary
Isolated thunderstorms are possible on New Year's Day across parts of southern California and Arizona.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 301929
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated thunderstorms are possible on New Year's Day across parts of southern California and Arizona.
Southern CA to AZ
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across parts of southern CA Thursday morning, before dampening as it shifts eastward across parts of the Desert Southwest and Four Corners region later in the period. Cooling aloft atop modestly increasing low-level moisture will support some early-day thunderstorm potential across coastal southern CA.
Guidance continues to vary regarding the strength, trajectory, and magnitude of attendant flow fields of this system as it approaches the coast. The somewhat stronger and farther south solutions (such as the 12Z NAM/RRFS) depict potential for strong storm development offshore, which could affect near-coastal areas of southern CA during the morning before weakening. Other guidance (such as the 12Z ECMWF) has trended northward, bringing stronger midlevel flow across southern CA, but also greater displacement between substantial cooling aloft and the more favorable low-level moisture. In general, confidence in sufficient strengthening of flow within this weak buoyancy regime remains too low to include severe probabilities.
Uncertainty regarding the evolution of the shortwave extends downstream into parts of the Desert Southwest, but an area of modestly enhanced low-level moisture across southwest AZ could support isolated storm development later in the day into the evening, as some cooling aloft overspreads the region.
..Dean.. 12/30/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Friday, January 2
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, January 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, January 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, January 4 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, January 5 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, January 6 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300847 SPC AC 300847
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
A return of deep convection remains likely on D4-5/Friday-Saturday across the Gulf Coast States from LA to north FL, and into the Deep South. A low-amplitude shortwave impulse should emanate out of the Southwest and may briefly amplify on D4/Friday over TX, as it becomes absorbed within the broader cyclonic flow regime across eastern North America. Latest guidance has decidedly trended towards dampening this impulse and attendant surface cyclone reflection as they progress across the Gulf Coast States/northern Gulf Friday night into Saturday. This combined with predominately westerly low-level wind profiles may support only a marginal severe threat. After this minor wave, severe potential appears negligible in the D6-8 time frame.
..Grams.. 12/30/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, January 3
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, January 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, January 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, January 4 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, January 5 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, January 6 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300847 SPC AC 300847
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
A return of deep convection remains likely on D4-5/Friday-Saturday across the Gulf Coast States from LA to north FL, and into the Deep South. A low-amplitude shortwave impulse should emanate out of the Southwest and may briefly amplify on D4/Friday over TX, as it becomes absorbed within the broader cyclonic flow regime across eastern North America. Latest guidance has decidedly trended towards dampening this impulse and attendant surface cyclone reflection as they progress across the Gulf Coast States/northern Gulf Friday night into Saturday. This combined with predominately westerly low-level wind profiles may support only a marginal severe threat. After this minor wave, severe potential appears negligible in the D6-8 time frame.
..Grams.. 12/30/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, January 4
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, January 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, January 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, January 4 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, January 5 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, January 6 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300847 SPC AC 300847
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
A return of deep convection remains likely on D4-5/Friday-Saturday across the Gulf Coast States from LA to north FL, and into the Deep South. A low-amplitude shortwave impulse should emanate out of the Southwest and may briefly amplify on D4/Friday over TX, as it becomes absorbed within the broader cyclonic flow regime across eastern North America. Latest guidance has decidedly trended towards dampening this impulse and attendant surface cyclone reflection as they progress across the Gulf Coast States/northern Gulf Friday night into Saturday. This combined with predominately westerly low-level wind profiles may support only a marginal severe threat. After this minor wave, severe potential appears negligible in the D6-8 time frame.
..Grams.. 12/30/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, January 5
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, January 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, January 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, January 4 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, January 5 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, January 6 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300847 SPC AC 300847
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
A return of deep convection remains likely on D4-5/Friday-Saturday across the Gulf Coast States from LA to north FL, and into the Deep South. A low-amplitude shortwave impulse should emanate out of the Southwest and may briefly amplify on D4/Friday over TX, as it becomes absorbed within the broader cyclonic flow regime across eastern North America. Latest guidance has decidedly trended towards dampening this impulse and attendant surface cyclone reflection as they progress across the Gulf Coast States/northern Gulf Friday night into Saturday. This combined with predominately westerly low-level wind profiles may support only a marginal severe threat. After this minor wave, severe potential appears negligible in the D6-8 time frame.
..Grams.. 12/30/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, January 6
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, January 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, January 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, January 4 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, January 5 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, January 6 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300847 SPC AC 300847
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
A return of deep convection remains likely on D4-5/Friday-Saturday across the Gulf Coast States from LA to north FL, and into the Deep South. A low-amplitude shortwave impulse should emanate out of the Southwest and may briefly amplify on D4/Friday over TX, as it becomes absorbed within the broader cyclonic flow regime across eastern North America. Latest guidance has decidedly trended towards dampening this impulse and attendant surface cyclone reflection as they progress across the Gulf Coast States/northern Gulf Friday night into Saturday. This combined with predominately westerly low-level wind profiles may support only a marginal severe threat. After this minor wave, severe potential appears negligible in the D6-8 time frame.
..Grams.. 12/30/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, December 30
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Wednesday, December 31
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Thursday, January 1
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Friday, January 2
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, January 3
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, January 4
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, January 5
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, January 6
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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