Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Monday, April 13

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms will continue across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes region with potential for large to very large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes, through the overnight hours. A more focused risk for severe storms will continue through late evening across the southern to central Plains.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 140054

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Valid 140100Z - 141200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY

### THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR EASTERN KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms will continue across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes region with potential for large to very large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes, through the overnight hours. A more focused risk for severe storms will continue through late evening across the southern to central Plains.

Synopsis

Late-evening surface analysis reveals a slow-moving surface low over eastern NE with a warm frontal zone draped eastward into southern MN and central WI. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are ongoing along the frontal zone as of 01 UTC and will likely continue through much of the overnight hours across the upper MS Valley and the Midwest. Further south, several attempts at convective initiation have been noted along a dryline draped from eastern NE southward into KS, OK, and TX. Although additional attempts at thunderstorm development are possible over the next few hours, the primary severe risk will be focused across the Kansas City metro area where a cluster of supercells has emerged.

.Upper MS Valley/Midwest

Scattered supercells are ongoing across southern MN and into central WI along and north of the surface warm front. A tornado and significant (2+ inch) hail threat will likely persist for the next couple of hours, but the expectation is for increased storm clustering and upscale growth through the overnight hours. The developing MCS will likely spread east/southeast into southern WI and possibly northern IL prior to 12 UTC Tuesday with an attendant risk for severe winds.

Eastern Kansas/western Missouri

A cluster of supercells has emerged across eastern KS over the past few hours and will likely continue to spread east into western MO through late evening. Given very favorable thermodynamic and kinematics noted in the 00z TOP sounding, this activity will likely continue to pose a threat for very large hail and tornadoes. 15% hail and 5% tornado probabilities have been introduced to account for this localized threat.

Southern Plains

GOES imagery over the past few hours has shown several attempts at convective initiation across OK and TX; however, most of these attempts have failed due to very meager/localized ascent along the dryline. While one strong storm is noted across northwest TX, the potential for new storm development should wane through the evening given residual inhibition noted in 00z soundings and as nocturnal cooling begins to diminish the dryline circulation. Because of this, opted to remove 15% risk probabilities, but maintain some risk probabilities given the ongoing convection and otherwise very favorable convective environment.

..Moore.. 04/14/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, April 14

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday and Tuesday night from the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes. Large to very large hail, a few tornadoes (some strong), and damaging wind gusts will be possible, particularly across parts of eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and southern Wisconsin. Additional strong storms, mainly producing strong wind gusts, will be possible across parts of the Northeast.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 131729

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday and Tuesday night from the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes. Large to very large hail, a few tornadoes (some strong), and damaging wind gusts will be possible, particularly across parts of eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and southern Wisconsin. Additional strong storms, mainly producing strong wind gusts, will be possible across parts of the Northeast.

Synopsis

The western US trough will eject across the Four Corners region into the Intermountain West, with strong southwesterly flow overspreading the Rockies into the central/southern Plains and Upper Midwest. A shortwave trough will pivot through this flow across the Upper Midwest through the period. A surface low will be centered over the Mid-MO Valley for much of the period, with a warm front extending east/northeast from north-central IA into southern WI and central Lower MI. Meanwhile, a dryline will extend southwest across eastern KS into western TX. These features will be the focus of scattered thunderstorm development through the afternoon and evening.

Mid-Missouri Valley and Great Lakes Region

Strong daytime heating is expected along and south of the warm from north-central IA into southern WI and lower MI Tuesday afternoon. This in combination with dew points in the low to mid 60s will yield moderate to strong instability (with MLCAPE around 1500-2500 J/kg). Scattered thunderstorms are likely to develop around 20z. Given deep layer shear around 40 kts, storm mode will be supercellular. Initially, low-level shear will be marginal, with generally straight and elongated hodographs. In addition, northeasterly storm motions will favor crossing the warm front to the cool side of the boundary. This will make the primary threat large to very large hail (some 2-3+ inches in diameter). With time, and as the low-level jet increases during the evening, convection may consolidate/grow upscale into one or more bowing segments and progress eastward into Lower MI/IN/OH, posing a continued risk for hail and an increasing risk for damaging wind gusts.

As the strengthening 850-700 mb low-level jet axis will nudge into central IA/northern MO/northern IL, it will usher in a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates and enlarge low-level hodographs, increasing tornado potential. While there remains some uncertainty, there is signal within hi-res guidance from the HREF for sustained UH tracks south of the warm front. CAM guidance varies on how the scenario will play out. As mentioned above, a few CAM solutions favor clustering/linear development by the evening. Should a more discrete supercell or two be able to root along or south of the boundary, a few tornadoes will be possible (some strong EF2+). Nonetheless, even with a more linear mode increasing low-level shear will favor and increasing chance for line embedded tornadoes.

Southern Plains into eastern Kansas/western Missouri

Thunderstorm development is likely along the dryline across the southern Plains Tuesday afternoon. Strong capping with remain through most of the morning, but strong heating and convergence along the dryline favor at least isolated thunderstorm development by around 19-20z. The environment ahead of the dryline will be characterized by moderate to strong instability, steep lapse rates, and favorable deep layer shear profiles to support supercells. Large to very large hail (1-2+ inches in diameter), damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado.

Northeast

Rounds of thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and evening within a warm advection regime. MLCAPE should increase to around 1000 J/kg within a moistening low-level air mass. Strong deep-layer westerly flow and steepening low-level lapse rates will support isolated strong wind gusts across the region.

..Thornton.. 04/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, April 15

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for large hail and strong wind gusts will be possible across portions of the southern Plains toward the Great Lakes on Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 131921

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for large hail and strong wind gusts will be possible across portions of the southern Plains toward the Great Lakes on Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Synopsis

The upper-level trough will move eastward from the Plains into the Upper Midwest on Wednesday, with continued enhanced west to southwesterly flow across the southern Plains into the Great Lakes Region. The surface dryline will remain in a similar location from Tuesday, extending across western Oklahoma into southwestern and western Texas. A surface low will shift eastward across IA into WI, with a cold front shifting south and east through the period. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected from the Southern Plains into the Upper Midwest along the aforementioned boundaries Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Southern Plains to Great Lakes

Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing at the start of the period at 12z Wednesday across much of the Slight Risk region. A secondary round of thunderstorm development is likely to occur near and ahead of the dryline extending from west Texas into western Oklahoma Wednesday afternoon. It remains somewhat uncertain how morning convection will evolve and what the resulting effect on the thermodynamic environment will be. Most guidance suggests that in the area ahead of the dryline across central OK to the Red River in northern Texas will develop at least moderate instability (1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE). Deep layer shear profiles will remain strong favoring supercells as the primary mode. The main threat will be for large to very large hail and damaging wind, given linearly elongated hodographs and weaker low-level shear.

Thunderstorms are also expected to re-develop further north across the central Plains into the Great Lakes region along the dryline/cold front intersection. A messy mode with mix of supercells and multi-cell clusters is likely given the eventual southward moving cold front. Similarly, the main risks will be for damaging wind and large hail across these regions.

Northeast

Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to develop along and south of a diffuse frontal boundary across the Great Lakes into southern NY/northern PA. Modestly unstable profiles, steepening lapse rates, and strong deep layer shear will allow for some isolated severe storm risk. Primary risk would be for damaging wind and small hail, though, a tornado could be possible near the boundary.

..Thornton.. 04/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Thursday, April 16

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130844 SPC AC 130844

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Thu - Mid-South vicinity

An upper shortwave trough will develop northeast from eastern OK/TX to the central/southern Appalachians on Thursday. Convection is likely to be ongoing from the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley to the ArkLaTex region Thursday morning. This will likely temper downstream destabilization (and overall severe risk), but a few strong storms are possible across the Mid-South vicinity.

Day 5/Fri - Southern Plains to Iowa

Medium range guidance has been consistently showing an upper trough over the western U.S. developing eastward toward the High Plains Friday/Friday night. As this occurs, increasing deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. A lee low will deepen over the central/southern High Plains, with a dryline extending across western OK/TX during the afternoon. By evening and into the overnight hours, a cold front will spread southeast across the central/southern Plains and Lower MO Valley. This pattern will support a risk of severe storms across the warm sector from OK to IA.

Days 6-8/Sat-Mon

Some severe risk may persist into Saturday as a surface low deepens over the Great Lakes and the cold front from the Day 5/Friday period continues to sweep east across the Midwest to the Lower MS Valley, becoming oriented across the Appalachians by Sunday morning. Severe potential may depend on how convection on Friday evolves and impacts the downstream airmass heading into Saturday morning, resulting in low predictability at this time. Strong surface high pressure will build across the Plains in the wake of the cold front, and Gulf moisture will become cut-off as the front pushes well south into the Gulf Basin. This should bring a reprieve from severe thunderstorm potential Sunday into Monday as surface high pressure envelops much of the CONUS east of the Rockies by the end of the period.

..Leitman.. 04/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Friday, April 17

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130844 SPC AC 130844

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Thu - Mid-South vicinity

An upper shortwave trough will develop northeast from eastern OK/TX to the central/southern Appalachians on Thursday. Convection is likely to be ongoing from the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley to the ArkLaTex region Thursday morning. This will likely temper downstream destabilization (and overall severe risk), but a few strong storms are possible across the Mid-South vicinity.

Day 5/Fri - Southern Plains to Iowa

Medium range guidance has been consistently showing an upper trough over the western U.S. developing eastward toward the High Plains Friday/Friday night. As this occurs, increasing deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. A lee low will deepen over the central/southern High Plains, with a dryline extending across western OK/TX during the afternoon. By evening and into the overnight hours, a cold front will spread southeast across the central/southern Plains and Lower MO Valley. This pattern will support a risk of severe storms across the warm sector from OK to IA.

Days 6-8/Sat-Mon

Some severe risk may persist into Saturday as a surface low deepens over the Great Lakes and the cold front from the Day 5/Friday period continues to sweep east across the Midwest to the Lower MS Valley, becoming oriented across the Appalachians by Sunday morning. Severe potential may depend on how convection on Friday evolves and impacts the downstream airmass heading into Saturday morning, resulting in low predictability at this time. Strong surface high pressure will build across the Plains in the wake of the cold front, and Gulf moisture will become cut-off as the front pushes well south into the Gulf Basin. This should bring a reprieve from severe thunderstorm potential Sunday into Monday as surface high pressure envelops much of the CONUS east of the Rockies by the end of the period.

..Leitman.. 04/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, April 18

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130844 SPC AC 130844

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Thu - Mid-South vicinity

An upper shortwave trough will develop northeast from eastern OK/TX to the central/southern Appalachians on Thursday. Convection is likely to be ongoing from the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley to the ArkLaTex region Thursday morning. This will likely temper downstream destabilization (and overall severe risk), but a few strong storms are possible across the Mid-South vicinity.

Day 5/Fri - Southern Plains to Iowa

Medium range guidance has been consistently showing an upper trough over the western U.S. developing eastward toward the High Plains Friday/Friday night. As this occurs, increasing deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. A lee low will deepen over the central/southern High Plains, with a dryline extending across western OK/TX during the afternoon. By evening and into the overnight hours, a cold front will spread southeast across the central/southern Plains and Lower MO Valley. This pattern will support a risk of severe storms across the warm sector from OK to IA.

Days 6-8/Sat-Mon

Some severe risk may persist into Saturday as a surface low deepens over the Great Lakes and the cold front from the Day 5/Friday period continues to sweep east across the Midwest to the Lower MS Valley, becoming oriented across the Appalachians by Sunday morning. Severe potential may depend on how convection on Friday evolves and impacts the downstream airmass heading into Saturday morning, resulting in low predictability at this time. Strong surface high pressure will build across the Plains in the wake of the cold front, and Gulf moisture will become cut-off as the front pushes well south into the Gulf Basin. This should bring a reprieve from severe thunderstorm potential Sunday into Monday as surface high pressure envelops much of the CONUS east of the Rockies by the end of the period.

..Leitman.. 04/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, April 19

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130844 SPC AC 130844

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Thu - Mid-South vicinity

An upper shortwave trough will develop northeast from eastern OK/TX to the central/southern Appalachians on Thursday. Convection is likely to be ongoing from the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley to the ArkLaTex region Thursday morning. This will likely temper downstream destabilization (and overall severe risk), but a few strong storms are possible across the Mid-South vicinity.

Day 5/Fri - Southern Plains to Iowa

Medium range guidance has been consistently showing an upper trough over the western U.S. developing eastward toward the High Plains Friday/Friday night. As this occurs, increasing deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. A lee low will deepen over the central/southern High Plains, with a dryline extending across western OK/TX during the afternoon. By evening and into the overnight hours, a cold front will spread southeast across the central/southern Plains and Lower MO Valley. This pattern will support a risk of severe storms across the warm sector from OK to IA.

Days 6-8/Sat-Mon

Some severe risk may persist into Saturday as a surface low deepens over the Great Lakes and the cold front from the Day 5/Friday period continues to sweep east across the Midwest to the Lower MS Valley, becoming oriented across the Appalachians by Sunday morning. Severe potential may depend on how convection on Friday evolves and impacts the downstream airmass heading into Saturday morning, resulting in low predictability at this time. Strong surface high pressure will build across the Plains in the wake of the cold front, and Gulf moisture will become cut-off as the front pushes well south into the Gulf Basin. This should bring a reprieve from severe thunderstorm potential Sunday into Monday as surface high pressure envelops much of the CONUS east of the Rockies by the end of the period.

..Leitman.. 04/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, April 20

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130844 SPC AC 130844

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Thu - Mid-South vicinity

An upper shortwave trough will develop northeast from eastern OK/TX to the central/southern Appalachians on Thursday. Convection is likely to be ongoing from the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley to the ArkLaTex region Thursday morning. This will likely temper downstream destabilization (and overall severe risk), but a few strong storms are possible across the Mid-South vicinity.

Day 5/Fri - Southern Plains to Iowa

Medium range guidance has been consistently showing an upper trough over the western U.S. developing eastward toward the High Plains Friday/Friday night. As this occurs, increasing deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. A lee low will deepen over the central/southern High Plains, with a dryline extending across western OK/TX during the afternoon. By evening and into the overnight hours, a cold front will spread southeast across the central/southern Plains and Lower MO Valley. This pattern will support a risk of severe storms across the warm sector from OK to IA.

Days 6-8/Sat-Mon

Some severe risk may persist into Saturday as a surface low deepens over the Great Lakes and the cold front from the Day 5/Friday period continues to sweep east across the Midwest to the Lower MS Valley, becoming oriented across the Appalachians by Sunday morning. Severe potential may depend on how convection on Friday evolves and impacts the downstream airmass heading into Saturday morning, resulting in low predictability at this time. Strong surface high pressure will build across the Plains in the wake of the cold front, and Gulf moisture will become cut-off as the front pushes well south into the Gulf Basin. This should bring a reprieve from severe thunderstorm potential Sunday into Monday as surface high pressure envelops much of the CONUS east of the Rockies by the end of the period.

..Leitman.. 04/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Monday, April 13

TORNADO: 10%

HAIL: 30%

WIND: 15%

Tuesday, April 14

TORNADO: 10%

HAIL: 30%

WIND: 15%

Wednesday, April 15

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Thursday, April 16

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, April 17

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Saturday, April 18

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Sunday, April 19

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Monday, April 20

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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