Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, September 19
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with scattered severe wind gusts and large hail are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 191225
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0725 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026
Valid 191300Z - 201200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with scattered severe wind gusts and large hail are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains.
Central and Southern Plains/Lower Missouri Valley
Larger-scale mid-level troughing over the Great Basin and central Rockies will gradually shift eastward with falling heights spreading east across the central Great Plains and lower MO Valley through daybreak Sunday. A cold front draped in a general west-southwest to east-northeast orientation from central High Plains to the mid MS Valley will slowly push south. A seasonably moist airmass ahead of the boundary over KS/MO into northwestern OK will become moderately unstable by mid afternoon. Scattered storm development is eventually expected during the late afternoon and early evening as convective inhibition is locally eroded. Steep 0-3 km lapse rates (8.5-9.5 deg C/km) will aid in storm vigor and the potential for strong evaporative cooling with the more intense cores. Have introduced an intensity level 1 for the wind hazard (60-75 mph gusts) where a combination of HREF ensemble guidance and higher PW and lapse rates overlap. A few short-lived supercells are possible given the adequate speed and directional shear according to model forecast soundings across the KS vicinity. Large hail will be possible with the stronger updrafts. This threat will likely diminish during the evening.
Central High Plains
The airmass north of a cool front will heat/destabilize through mid-late afternoon ahead of the aforementioned upper-level trough impinging on the region from the west. Some easterly component to the low-level flow will aid in maintaining a fetch of sufficient moisture (mainly 50s deg F surface dewpoints) into much of the central High Plains. Models indicate scattered storms developing near/east of I-25 with increasing storm coverage expected through the early evening. With time, a loosely organized band of a storms (including some supercells) will probably grow upscale and transition to a linear cluster as it moves east across eastern CO into western KS. Have included 15-percent wind probabilities across eastern CO to account for this favorable storm mode evolution for severe gusts. There is some indication this activity may continue into western KS during the late evening and early overnight, prompting the inclusion of low severe-wind probabilities. Uncertainty remains regarding the character/intensity of this activity across western KS (e.g., 19/06z MPAS-HT), especially if the depth of post-frontal airmass and near-surface static stability are similar to the 19/06z NAM depiction.
Ohio Valley/Southern Appalachians/Southeast
West-northwesterly mid-level flow will be located over much of the northeastern third of the U.S. today. At the surface, an axis of low-level moisture will be oriented from the Ohio Valley southward into the southern Appalachians, along which moderate instability is expected to be in place by afternoon. Widely scattered to scattered storms are forecast during the afternoon. A few of the stronger downdrafts may be capable of a strong to locally severe wind-gust threat (50 to 60 mph) capable of wind damage.
..Smith/Mead.. 09/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Sunday, September 20
Outlook Summary
A few severe wind and hail producing thunderstorms are possible over eastern Colorado, with severe gusts also likely to accompany storms over portions of Oklahoma tomorrow (Sunday). Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible from the Ozark Valley to the central Appalachians.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 190546
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE
### SUMMARY
A few severe wind and hail producing thunderstorms are possible over eastern Colorado, with severe gusts also likely to accompany storms over portions of Oklahoma tomorrow (Sunday). Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible from the Ozark Valley to the central Appalachians.
Synopsis
Multiple mid-level impulses will pivot around a de-amplifying upper ridge and traverse the central CONUS tomorrow (Sunday). These impulses will encourage the gradual southward progression of a surface cold front, preceded by a seasonably moist and unstable boundary layer, to support thunderstorm development across much of the southern Plains to the OH Valley. Given stronger buoyancy in proximity to the cold front, severe thunderstorms are possible, especially over the southern Plains. Upslope flow along the western flank of the cold front into the central High Plains will encourage a severe threat in this region as well.
Southern Plains
Some cloud cover, along with widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, may be in place across portions of the southern Plains into the Ozarks by Sunday morning. As such, there are some uncertainties regarding how these initial conditions will impact downstream convective evolution. Nonetheless, guidance consensus suggests that surface temperatures will warm ahead of the front into the 90s F, with 70 F dewpoints, yielding 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE amid waning inhibition. This will support thunderstorm initiation by mid to late afternoon. Given mediocre vertical shear profiles, storms should quickly merge and become outflow dominant. However, given the potential for strong buoyancy, a short-lived cold-pool-driven MCS may develop, accompanied by a focused severe gust threat in central/eastern OK.
Portions of MO into the OH Valley and central Appalachians
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is likely all along the cold front and periphery of the decaying upper ridge, from the Ozarks to the central Appalachians, during the afternoon given boundary-layer destabilization. The convergence of upper 60s F dewpoints along the front will boost MLCAPE to over 2000 J/kg. A few of the stronger multicellular complexes may produce a couple instances of severe wind/hail, though the severe threat should be limited to some degree given mainly 6 C/km mid-level lapse rates and mediocre vertical wind shear.
Portions of eastern Colorado
Along the western flank of the cold front, upslope flow into eastern Colorado during the afternoon, will encourage scattered thunderstorm development. Notable veering flow above the boundary layer, along with increasing westerly flow through the remainder of the troposphere, will result in elongated hodographs and 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear. A few of the stronger storms should become supercellular. Given 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, supercells may be accompanied by both severe wind and hail.
..Squitieri.. 09/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Monday, September 21
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms over parts of the southern and central Appalachians on Monday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 190715
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms over parts of the southern and central Appalachians on Monday.
Synopsis
Mainly zonal mid-level flow, with embedded impulses, will characterize the upper air pattern east of the Rockies, with a mid-level trough slowly progressing across the Southwest on Monday. Eastern portions of a diffuse cold front will linger over portions of the eastern TN Valley into the central Appalachians Monday afternoon, supporting scattered thunderstorm development. Given upper 60s F dewpoints contributing to 1500+ J/kg of tall and thin MLCAPE, a few wet downbursts capable of producing damaging gusts may occur with the stronger storms.
..Squitieri.. 09/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Tuesday, September 22
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, September 22 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, September 23 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, September 24 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, September 25 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, September 26 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190824 SPC AC 190824
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
An initially zonal mid-level flow regime will gradually transition to a more amplified upper-air pattern, characterized by ridging over the Plains states through the week into next weekend. As this occurs, low-level moisture will continue to be shunted southward as cooler mid-level temperatures remain relatively confined west of the Rockies, and flow aloft remains modest at best. As a result, there are no clear signals for an organized threat of severe thunderstorms across the CONUS for Days 4-8 (Tuesday-Saturday).
..Squitieri.. 09/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, September 23
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, September 22 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, September 23 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, September 24 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, September 25 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, September 26 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190824 SPC AC 190824
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
An initially zonal mid-level flow regime will gradually transition to a more amplified upper-air pattern, characterized by ridging over the Plains states through the week into next weekend. As this occurs, low-level moisture will continue to be shunted southward as cooler mid-level temperatures remain relatively confined west of the Rockies, and flow aloft remains modest at best. As a result, there are no clear signals for an organized threat of severe thunderstorms across the CONUS for Days 4-8 (Tuesday-Saturday).
..Squitieri.. 09/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, September 24
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, September 22 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, September 23 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, September 24 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, September 25 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, September 26 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190824 SPC AC 190824
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
An initially zonal mid-level flow regime will gradually transition to a more amplified upper-air pattern, characterized by ridging over the Plains states through the week into next weekend. As this occurs, low-level moisture will continue to be shunted southward as cooler mid-level temperatures remain relatively confined west of the Rockies, and flow aloft remains modest at best. As a result, there are no clear signals for an organized threat of severe thunderstorms across the CONUS for Days 4-8 (Tuesday-Saturday).
..Squitieri.. 09/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, September 25
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, September 22 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, September 23 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, September 24 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, September 25 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, September 26 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190824 SPC AC 190824
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
An initially zonal mid-level flow regime will gradually transition to a more amplified upper-air pattern, characterized by ridging over the Plains states through the week into next weekend. As this occurs, low-level moisture will continue to be shunted southward as cooler mid-level temperatures remain relatively confined west of the Rockies, and flow aloft remains modest at best. As a result, there are no clear signals for an organized threat of severe thunderstorms across the CONUS for Days 4-8 (Tuesday-Saturday).
..Squitieri.. 09/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, September 26
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, September 22 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, September 23 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, September 24 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, September 25 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, September 26 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190824 SPC AC 190824
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
An initially zonal mid-level flow regime will gradually transition to a more amplified upper-air pattern, characterized by ridging over the Plains states through the week into next weekend. As this occurs, low-level moisture will continue to be shunted southward as cooler mid-level temperatures remain relatively confined west of the Rockies, and flow aloft remains modest at best. As a result, there are no clear signals for an organized threat of severe thunderstorms across the CONUS for Days 4-8 (Tuesday-Saturday).
..Squitieri.. 09/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, September 19
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Sunday, September 20
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Monday, September 21
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Tuesday, September 22
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, September 23
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, September 24
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, September 25
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, September 26
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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