Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, November 26
Outlook Summary
Severe storms are not forecast today.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 261226
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0626 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025
Valid 261300Z - 271200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe storms are not forecast today.
Synopsis
A large upper trough continues to deepen across much of the eastern U.S. today, while a cold front pushes southward across south TX and the southeast coastal states. This process will stabilize the air mass across the nation, precluding organized severe storms.
Scattered thunderstorms have been occurring over southeast GA/northern FL, and should persist for a few more hours as they spread southward into the FL Peninsula. Weak forcing and limited vertical shear suggests severe storms are unlikely. Other scattered thunderstorms have been occurring this morning over Deep South TX in vicinity of the front. This activity will also build southward and out of the CONUS during the day with little risk of severe activity.
..Hart/Dean.. 11/26/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Thursday, November 27
Outlook Summary
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across southeast Florida on Thursday. Severe storms are not expected.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 260531
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across southeast Florida on Thursday. Severe storms are not expected.
Synopsis
A broad mid-level trough will deepen across the eastern CONUS, ushering in surface high pressure and associated cool and stable air across most of the CONUS, limiting thunderstorms over most locales tomorrow (Thursday). The one exception will be the southern FL Peninsula tomorrow afternoon and evening. Here, a surface cold front will sweep across the region, lifting a moist and buoyant low-level airmass before moving offshore. Isolated thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon hours, before the cold front clears moisture from the region.
..Squitieri.. 11/26/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Friday, November 28
Outlook Summary
A few thunderstorms are possible over the southern Plains Friday night into early Saturday morning. Severe thunderstorms are not currently expected.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 260720
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
A few thunderstorms are possible over the southern Plains Friday night into early Saturday morning. Severe thunderstorms are not currently expected.
Synopsis
A mid-level trough will amplify across the central U.S. as another upper trough ejects into the Atlantic on Day 3 (Friday). As this occurs, surface high pressure and an associated cool, statically stable airmass will overspread the U.S. east of the MS River, limiting thunderstorm potential. However, the approach of the central U.S. trough will encourage surface low development over the southern Plains on Friday, promoting moisture return from the Gulf. With the return of this moisture comes buoyancy (albeit marginal) across portions of the southern Plains. Thunderstorms will be possible Friday night into early Saturday morning across much of central TX into far southwestern OK as cooler temperatures aloft/steep mid-level lapse rates overspreads the moist axis ahead of the surface low.
Central TX into far southwestern OK
The latest guidance consensus depicts a 1008 mb surface low developing somewhere over western OK by Friday evening as a mid-level trough deepens over the central Rockies. Given a frontal intrusion over the Gulf in days prior, moisture return will be scant for Day 3/Friday. Nonetheless, the development of a strong (i.e. 40-50 kt) southerly low-level jet will aid in the northward advancement of enough moisture to support scattered thunderstorm development Friday night into early Saturday morning. Forecast soundings depict a stable nocturnal boundary layer over central TX to far southwestern OK, but with 7.5-8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreading this stable, moist layer, yielding 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE, generally above 850 mb. Given the strong low-level jet, and an approaching westerly 500 mb wind maximum rotating around the amplifying trough, strong deep-layer shear is expected. Forecast soundings show elongated hodographs, with approximately 50 kts of effective bulk shear noted. Elevated multicells are expected, likely accompanied by at least small hail. However, if trends in increasing buoyancy are noted in future guidance, severe hail probabilities may be needed in future outlooks.
..Squitieri.. 11/26/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Saturday, November 29
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, November 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, November 30 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, December 1 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, December 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, December 3 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260850 SPC AC 260850
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025
Valid 291200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper air pattern is expected through the remainder of this week into the middle of next week, with multiple mid-level troughs poised to develop and amplify while progressing across the CONUS. This pattern will support cooler temperatures across the northern half of the U.S. through the extended period, resulting stable low-level conditions and limited potential for thunderstorm development. However, the passage of multiple mid-level troughs will result in surface low development, accompanied by moisture return and at least some thunderstorm potential across the southern Plains into the Southeast on a few occasions.
First, a surface low will rapidly translate from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes on Day 4/Saturday, becoming displaced from the moisture axis with time. Before departing the southern Plains, an appreciable fetch of low-level moisture will become established over the Sabine River Valley ahead of a surface cold front. It is plausible that at least a few strong to potentially severe thunderstorms could develop. However, the rapid departure of the surface low will reduce deep-layer ascent, with storm coverage ultimately in question (hence no severe probabilities being introduced at this time).
Medium range guidance consensus has the next in a series of mid-level troughs amplifying over the southern Plains, which may support surface low development somewhere over the Lower MS Valley early next week. Should this occur, isolated strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out along the Gulf Coast. However, the development, track, or evolution of the surface low is currently unclear in the guidance, warranting the withholding of severe probabilities for now.
..Squitieri.. 11/26/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, November 30
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, November 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, November 30 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, December 1 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, December 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, December 3 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260850 SPC AC 260850
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025
Valid 291200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper air pattern is expected through the remainder of this week into the middle of next week, with multiple mid-level troughs poised to develop and amplify while progressing across the CONUS. This pattern will support cooler temperatures across the northern half of the U.S. through the extended period, resulting stable low-level conditions and limited potential for thunderstorm development. However, the passage of multiple mid-level troughs will result in surface low development, accompanied by moisture return and at least some thunderstorm potential across the southern Plains into the Southeast on a few occasions.
First, a surface low will rapidly translate from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes on Day 4/Saturday, becoming displaced from the moisture axis with time. Before departing the southern Plains, an appreciable fetch of low-level moisture will become established over the Sabine River Valley ahead of a surface cold front. It is plausible that at least a few strong to potentially severe thunderstorms could develop. However, the rapid departure of the surface low will reduce deep-layer ascent, with storm coverage ultimately in question (hence no severe probabilities being introduced at this time).
Medium range guidance consensus has the next in a series of mid-level troughs amplifying over the southern Plains, which may support surface low development somewhere over the Lower MS Valley early next week. Should this occur, isolated strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out along the Gulf Coast. However, the development, track, or evolution of the surface low is currently unclear in the guidance, warranting the withholding of severe probabilities for now.
..Squitieri.. 11/26/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, December 1
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, November 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, November 30 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, December 1 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, December 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, December 3 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260850 SPC AC 260850
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025
Valid 291200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper air pattern is expected through the remainder of this week into the middle of next week, with multiple mid-level troughs poised to develop and amplify while progressing across the CONUS. This pattern will support cooler temperatures across the northern half of the U.S. through the extended period, resulting stable low-level conditions and limited potential for thunderstorm development. However, the passage of multiple mid-level troughs will result in surface low development, accompanied by moisture return and at least some thunderstorm potential across the southern Plains into the Southeast on a few occasions.
First, a surface low will rapidly translate from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes on Day 4/Saturday, becoming displaced from the moisture axis with time. Before departing the southern Plains, an appreciable fetch of low-level moisture will become established over the Sabine River Valley ahead of a surface cold front. It is plausible that at least a few strong to potentially severe thunderstorms could develop. However, the rapid departure of the surface low will reduce deep-layer ascent, with storm coverage ultimately in question (hence no severe probabilities being introduced at this time).
Medium range guidance consensus has the next in a series of mid-level troughs amplifying over the southern Plains, which may support surface low development somewhere over the Lower MS Valley early next week. Should this occur, isolated strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out along the Gulf Coast. However, the development, track, or evolution of the surface low is currently unclear in the guidance, warranting the withholding of severe probabilities for now.
..Squitieri.. 11/26/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, December 2
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, November 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, November 30 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, December 1 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, December 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, December 3 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260850 SPC AC 260850
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025
Valid 291200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper air pattern is expected through the remainder of this week into the middle of next week, with multiple mid-level troughs poised to develop and amplify while progressing across the CONUS. This pattern will support cooler temperatures across the northern half of the U.S. through the extended period, resulting stable low-level conditions and limited potential for thunderstorm development. However, the passage of multiple mid-level troughs will result in surface low development, accompanied by moisture return and at least some thunderstorm potential across the southern Plains into the Southeast on a few occasions.
First, a surface low will rapidly translate from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes on Day 4/Saturday, becoming displaced from the moisture axis with time. Before departing the southern Plains, an appreciable fetch of low-level moisture will become established over the Sabine River Valley ahead of a surface cold front. It is plausible that at least a few strong to potentially severe thunderstorms could develop. However, the rapid departure of the surface low will reduce deep-layer ascent, with storm coverage ultimately in question (hence no severe probabilities being introduced at this time).
Medium range guidance consensus has the next in a series of mid-level troughs amplifying over the southern Plains, which may support surface low development somewhere over the Lower MS Valley early next week. Should this occur, isolated strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out along the Gulf Coast. However, the development, track, or evolution of the surface low is currently unclear in the guidance, warranting the withholding of severe probabilities for now.
..Squitieri.. 11/26/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, December 3
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, November 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, November 30 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, December 1 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, December 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, December 3 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260850 SPC AC 260850
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025
Valid 291200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper air pattern is expected through the remainder of this week into the middle of next week, with multiple mid-level troughs poised to develop and amplify while progressing across the CONUS. This pattern will support cooler temperatures across the northern half of the U.S. through the extended period, resulting stable low-level conditions and limited potential for thunderstorm development. However, the passage of multiple mid-level troughs will result in surface low development, accompanied by moisture return and at least some thunderstorm potential across the southern Plains into the Southeast on a few occasions.
First, a surface low will rapidly translate from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes on Day 4/Saturday, becoming displaced from the moisture axis with time. Before departing the southern Plains, an appreciable fetch of low-level moisture will become established over the Sabine River Valley ahead of a surface cold front. It is plausible that at least a few strong to potentially severe thunderstorms could develop. However, the rapid departure of the surface low will reduce deep-layer ascent, with storm coverage ultimately in question (hence no severe probabilities being introduced at this time).
Medium range guidance consensus has the next in a series of mid-level troughs amplifying over the southern Plains, which may support surface low development somewhere over the Lower MS Valley early next week. Should this occur, isolated strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out along the Gulf Coast. However, the development, track, or evolution of the surface low is currently unclear in the guidance, warranting the withholding of severe probabilities for now.
..Squitieri.. 11/26/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, November 26
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Thursday, November 27
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Friday, November 28
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Saturday, November 29
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, November 30
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, December 1
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, December 2
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, December 3
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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