Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, May 20
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe/damaging winds and isolated hail will be possible with thunderstorms from the central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England this afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorms with large hail and isolated severe gusts may also occur today across parts of west/south-central Texas.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 201601
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026
Valid 201630Z - 211200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST VIRGINIA INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND…AND OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS.
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe/damaging winds and isolated hail will be possible with thunderstorms from the central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England this afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorms with large hail and isolated severe gusts may also occur today across parts of west/south-central Texas.
WV to Southern New England
A broad upper ridge is present today over the southeastern U.S., with the southern fringe of stronger westerlies extending from the OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic region. Visible satellite imagery shows a zone of relatively clear skies from KY/WV into southeast PA/NJ and southern New England. Strong heating in this corridor will lead to moderate CAPE by mid-afternoon. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected, with steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient westerly flow above the boundary-layer supporting a risk of damaging wind gusts and some hail in the strongest cores/clusters.
Southwest TX
Water vapor imagery shows a southern stream shortwave trough moving into northwest Mexico, with large scale ascent approaching west TX. Considerable cloud cover will persist in this region today, limiting heating/destabilization. Easterly low-level upslope flow will aid in the development of afternoon thunderstorms over the Davis mountains, with storms spreading slowly eastward through the evening. A few severe storms are possible, capable of large hail and gusty/damaging winds.
..Hart/Dean.. 05/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Thursday, May 21
Outlook Summary
Widely scattered severe storms are expected to develop across eastern Colorado Thursday afternoon and evening. Large hail will be the predominant hazard, with locally severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or two also possible.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 201724
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
### SUMMARY
Widely scattered severe storms are expected to develop across eastern Colorado Thursday afternoon and evening. Large hail will be the predominant hazard, with locally severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or two also possible.
Synopsis
A short-wave trough and associated jet streak initially over the northern Rockies Thursday morning will progress southeast into the central Rockies by Thursday night. Farther to the south, a short-wave trough will translate from the southern Plains into lower MS Valley.
At the surface, a weak surface low is expected to develop from southeast WY into western SD by Thursday evening, along a front advancing through the northern High Plains. A lee trough will deepen from the vicinity of low south through eastern parts of CO and NM. Elsewhere, a cold front will push south from VA into the Carolinas with the western extension of that boundary lifting north through the lower MS Valley Thursday night in response to weak cyclogenesis in that area.
### Central High Plains
While low-level moisture will remain somewhat limited, the presence of steep low/mid-level lapse rates will contribute to MLCAPE of 750-1000+ J/kg during the peak of the diurnal heating cycle. Low-level upslope flow will be augmented by increased forcing for ascent downstream from the approaching short-wave trough to foster widely scattered thunderstorm development along favored terrain by mid to late afternoon.
Strengthening mid-level flow coupled with the southeasterly low-level wind component will yield effective bulk shear of 40-50 kt, supportive of supercell storm modes with the predominant hazard being large hail. A brief tornado or two is possible, owing to strengthening low-level shear by early evening. however, the marginal moisture content is expected to limit a more robust threat.
### Western Dakotas
At least a marginally unstable air mass is expected to develop ahead of the front, supporting widely scattered thunderstorm development by afternoon. Stronger vertical shear is expected to reside to the south of the area, limiting the potential for organized storm modes. Nonetheless, locally strong wind gusts and sub-severe hail appear possible with the strongest storms.
### West Texas
There is some model signal that a broken band of thunderstorms may evolve near the NM/TX state line by late afternoon or evening, amidst a steep lapse rate environment. Some potential will exist for locally strong wind gusts and/or hail with that activity.
### Eastern Oklahoma into Northeast Texas
The 12z convection-allowing models indicate a broader-scale complex of storms evolving across the area Thursday. Weak vertical shear and poor lapses are expected to limit the potential for storm organization. However, the presence of a moist and moderately unstable air mass will support briefly vigorous up/downdrafts capable of locally strong wind gusts.
### Deep South Texas
Remnants of overnight storms may be ongoing Thursday morning with another round of thunderstorms potentially moving through the area late Thursday night into Friday morning. Some potential will exist for a few strong storms capable of gusty winds and hail.
### Lower MS Valley
The models suggest that low-level shear will strengthen late Thursday night into Friday morning in response to weak cyclogenesis over the area. Lapse rates will be poor, limiting instability. However, given the presence of a moist/low-lcl boundary layer, some potential for low-level updraft rotation will exist with any deeper convective elements, with a non-zero risk for a brief tornado.
### Southern VA into the Carolinas.
A hot, well-mixed boundary layer is forecast ahead of the front Thursday afternoon. However, forecast soundings indicate warm mid-level temperatures (500 mb and above), which are expected to limit overall parcel buoyancy. Nonetheless, a few locally strong wind gusts appear possible with storms developing along and ahead of the boundary.
..Mead.. 05/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Friday, May 22
Outlook Summary
Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible across portions of the southern Plains with potential for large hail and damaging wind.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 200722
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
### SUMMARY
Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible across portions of the southern Plains with potential for large hail and damaging wind.
Synopsis
A mid-level wave will move across the central Plains on D3/Friday. A weak lee low will develop across northeastern New Mexico/southeastern Colorado, with a dryline extending from the OK/TX Panhandles into southwestern Texas. Scattered thunderstorms are expected along and east of the dryline by Friday afternoon, with potential for large hail and damaging wind.
Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles into portions of southwestern Kansas, western Oklahoma, and northwestern Texas
While there remains some uncertainty in the exact eastward placement of the dryline Friday afternoon, guidance continues to suggest eroding MLCIN and potential for convective development by the afternoon as weak ascent spreads across KS into northern OK. Ahead of the dryline, the environment will be characterized by steep low to mid-level lapse rates and moderate to strong instability. Deep layer shear around 30-35 kts would support potential for initial supercells capable of large hail and damaging wind. Clustering and more multi-cell mixed mode thunderstorms may evolve into a damaging wind threat through time.
Lower Mississippi Valley into Southeast
Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected south of a stationary boundary extending from the lower Mississippi Valley into Tennessee and south into northern Georgia. Though weak to moderate instability will be in place, weak flow aloft and weak deep layer shear will likely keep storms sub-severe.
..Thornton.. 05/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Saturday, May 23
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, May 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, May 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, May 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, May 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, May 27 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200856 SPC AC 200856
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe potential will remain low through the extended period. Weak troughing will continue across the central Plains through the weekend before height rises begin across the central US with a high amplitude ridge settling in from the west. This pattern will remain in place through early to middle of next week. Slow moisture return will be ongoing across much of the Plains into the Midwest with occasional rounds of widespread rainfall and thunderstorms, but generally weak flow and subsidence will keep organized storm potential low through D8/Wednesday.
..Thornton.. 05/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, May 24
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, May 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, May 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, May 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, May 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, May 27 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200856 SPC AC 200856
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe potential will remain low through the extended period. Weak troughing will continue across the central Plains through the weekend before height rises begin across the central US with a high amplitude ridge settling in from the west. This pattern will remain in place through early to middle of next week. Slow moisture return will be ongoing across much of the Plains into the Midwest with occasional rounds of widespread rainfall and thunderstorms, but generally weak flow and subsidence will keep organized storm potential low through D8/Wednesday.
..Thornton.. 05/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, May 25
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, May 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, May 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, May 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, May 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, May 27 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200856 SPC AC 200856
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe potential will remain low through the extended period. Weak troughing will continue across the central Plains through the weekend before height rises begin across the central US with a high amplitude ridge settling in from the west. This pattern will remain in place through early to middle of next week. Slow moisture return will be ongoing across much of the Plains into the Midwest with occasional rounds of widespread rainfall and thunderstorms, but generally weak flow and subsidence will keep organized storm potential low through D8/Wednesday.
..Thornton.. 05/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, May 26
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, May 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, May 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, May 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, May 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, May 27 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200856 SPC AC 200856
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe potential will remain low through the extended period. Weak troughing will continue across the central Plains through the weekend before height rises begin across the central US with a high amplitude ridge settling in from the west. This pattern will remain in place through early to middle of next week. Slow moisture return will be ongoing across much of the Plains into the Midwest with occasional rounds of widespread rainfall and thunderstorms, but generally weak flow and subsidence will keep organized storm potential low through D8/Wednesday.
..Thornton.. 05/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, May 27
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, May 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, May 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, May 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, May 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, May 27 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200856 SPC AC 200856
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe potential will remain low through the extended period. Weak troughing will continue across the central Plains through the weekend before height rises begin across the central US with a high amplitude ridge settling in from the west. This pattern will remain in place through early to middle of next week. Slow moisture return will be ongoing across much of the Plains into the Midwest with occasional rounds of widespread rainfall and thunderstorms, but generally weak flow and subsidence will keep organized storm potential low through D8/Wednesday.
..Thornton.. 05/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, May 20
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Thursday, May 21
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 5%
- Friday, May 22
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Saturday, May 23
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, May 24
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, May 25
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, May 26
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, May 27
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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