Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Wednesday, May 27

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic this afternoon and evening. Strong to severe gusts capable of producing wind damage should be the primary hazard, but isolated hail may also occur.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 271951

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Valid 272000Z - 281200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic this afternoon and evening. Strong to severe gusts capable of producing wind damage should be the primary hazard, but isolated hail may also occur.

20Z Update

The previous forecast (see below) remains generally on track (please see MCD 876 for short-term severe trends in the Mid-Atlantic region). The primary change to the outlook was to drop severe wind and hail probabilities across the TX Panhandle. Here, convection has failed to deepen, with widespread cloud cover becoming more prevalent during the diurnal heating maximum. It is unclear if cells can congeal into larger storm cores capable of producing severe wind and hail. However, enough overlapping vertical oriented low-level vorticity and 0-3 km CAPE exists to support a landspout, so 2 percent tornado probabilities have been maintained given the presence of convective updrafts.

..Squitieri.. 05/27/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026/

Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic

30-40 kt of mid-level westerly flow will be present today across parts of the OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic, sandwiched between an upper trough over Ontario/Quebec and a mid-level anticyclone centered over the western Atlantic. A west-east oriented front, modulated by ongoing convection, will serve as a focus and northern limit for severe potential. Latest surface observations show a rather moist low-level airmass present along/south of this boundary (also reference the 12Z observed soundings from IAD/RNK), with surface dewpoints generally in the mid 60s to low 70s. Lapse rates aloft are expected to remain poor, and persistent cloud cover will slow daytime heating.

Still, weak to moderate instability (MLCAPE 500-1500 J/kg) coupled with 30-40 kt of westerly deep-layer shear will support organized thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening as a weak mid-level shortwave trough moves eastward across the OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic. A mix of multicells and marginal supercell structures is anticipated along/south of the front, with scattered damaging winds the main severe risk. Some hail could also occur with the strongest cores. The Slight Risk for severe/damaging winds has been expanded westward into parts of WV and vicinity, where a favorable environment/convective evolution should occur, similar to locations farther east in VA/MD along/south of ongoing precipitation.

Pacific Northwest/Northern Rockies

A closed mid/upper-level low is not expected to move much over CA/NV today. Enhanced east-southeasterly mid-level flow and modest large-scale ascent to the north of this cyclone will likely support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across parts of OR/ID and western MT. Cool temperatures aloft and adequate low-level moisture should support at least weak instability as filtered daytime heating occurs. As low-level lapse rates steepen with the well-mixed boundary layer, isolated severe gusts appear possible with the high-based convection that develops and spreads west-northwestward through the afternoon/evening. Some gusts may reach up to 70-75 mph on a localized basis, but confidence in a more focused corridor of severe winds remains too low to include greater probabilities at this time. Isolated hail may also occur.

Coastal Texas to the ArklaTex

An expansive MCS has moved offshore from coastal TX into the western Gulf late this morning. A leading MCS/outflow is also present across parts of southern/central LA. Current expectations are for limited redevelopment and severe risk through the period in the wake of this ongoing activity across coastal TX/southern LA. However, there may be an opportunity for modest destabilization near an MCV across the ArkLaTex vicinity this afternoon. Favorable/veering wind profiles with height through mid levels and related deep-layer shear (see recent VWPs from KSHV) would conditionally support organized thunderstorms this afternoon, assuming sufficient instability can develop amid widespread cloud cover. Have opted to add a focused Marginal Risk across portions of the ArkLaTex and vicinity for this potential, with both occasional damaging winds and a tornado or two possible with the stronger cells that develop.

Upper Midwest/Western Great Lakes

Modest north-northwesterly mid-level flow should exist today across the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes. With continued daytime heating, moderate instability should develop along/south of a weak surface front. Thunderstorms that initiate along/near the front this afternoon could pose an isolated threat for severe hail and damaging winds, particularly across parts of WI where the best convective signal exists in various short-term model guidance. However, overall convective coverage is uncertain, as large-scale ascent should remain fairly weak.

Southern High Plains

Cool temperatures aloft in association with a weak mid-level trough over the southern High Plains should aid at least weak destabilization this afternoon across parts of northwest TX into the TX Panhandle and far western OK. While low-level moisture will remain fairly muted and deep-layer shear rather modest, a few stronger thunderstorms capable of producing isolated hail/gusty winds and perhaps a landspout may occur.

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

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Outlook for Thursday, May 28

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe storms are possible on Thursday over portions of the Columbia Basin with more isolated storms across the broader Northwest region. Damaging winds will be the primary threat, with some threat for large hail.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 271730

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe storms are possible on Thursday over portions of the Columbia Basin with more isolated storms across the broader Northwest region. Damaging winds will be the primary threat, with some threat for large hail.

Synopsis

A mid-level shortwave trough currently on the western periphery of the broader mid-level low across California at mid-day Wednesday will move around the low-pressure center and emerge across the Northwest on Thursday. East of this low, a strong mid-level ridge will be maintained across the central CONUS with a mid-level trough in the east. This pattern will result in a mostly nebulous surface pattern other than a more defined area of high pressure across the Great Lakes.

Northwest

Low-level moisture will increase across the Columbia Basin Wednesday and Thursday, primarily from the northeasterly surface flow. This moisture, combined with cooling air aloft and robust surface heating, will result in abnormally large instability across the region. In fact, the GFS/NAM/RAP forecast soundings show record-high MLCAPE values at OTX tomorrow afternoon. Given the climatological extreme of these values, it seems unlikely to be as high as forecast (1500-2000 J/kg). However, even 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE would result in an environment favorable for severe storms, particularly across northern Oregon and south-central Washington where even the HRRR shows 1000 to 1200 J/kg MLCAPE. Very steep mid-level lapse rates (near 9 C/km) and moderate shear will also support organized severe storms.

The timing of the mid-level shortwave trough emerging across Oregon appears to be well-timed with afternoon peak heating. Therefore, expect storms to initially form across east-central Oregon and move north-northwestward through the evening. Most 12Z CAM guidance shows upscale growth into a linear segment which would likely support a damaging wind threat, particularly given the steep lapse rate environment. For these reasons, have upgraded to a Level 2 Slight Risk across portions of the Columbia Basin.

Expanded the wind probabilities across the Cascades slightly as the environment appears to be favorable to the west of the crests. However, it appears the marine layer should move into areas such as Portland prior to the arrival of the storms. Therefore, have kept severe probabilities east of this zone where the marine layer will likely have a stabilizing effect.

..Bentley.. 05/27/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Friday, May 29

Outlook Summary

Isolated to scattered storms may produce large hail from eastern New Mexico and western Texas into southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana on Friday. Strong to severe storms may also occur across western Montana with gusty winds and marginal hail. Damaging thunderstorm wind gusts are also possible across portions of the central High Plains.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 271930

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA…THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS…AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA.

### SUMMARY

Isolated to scattered storms may produce large hail from eastern New Mexico and western Texas into southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana on Friday. Strong to severe storms may also occur across western Montana with gusty winds and marginal hail. Damaging thunderstorm wind gusts are also possible across portions of the central High Plains.

Synopsis

A closed low across the Great Basin will become an open wave and start to advance northeast toward the central Rockies. As this occurs, lee troughing will begin across the southern and central High Plains and into eastern Montana. A strong mid-level trough will move southward across eastern Canada into the Northeast.

Western Montana

Weak to moderate instability will build across western Montana on Friday as dewpoints increase into the mid 50s and mid-level temperatures cool. Mid-level flow is forecast to increase to 30 to 40 knots across western Montana which will provide sufficient shear for storm organization. The Marginal Risk was expanded slightly to account for the likely extent of the threat given the 12Z guidance.

Central Plains

Surface moisture is forecast to back up near the terrain across northern Colorado and southeast Wyoming. This will lead to weak to moderate instability across the region. In addition to typical terrain circulations, guidance suggests a weak mid-level shortwave trough may emerge across the region and provide additional support for storm development. Shear is forecast to remain relatively weak, but weak to moderate instability, and steep lapse rates will support some threat for severe wind gusts.

Southern Plains into southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana

A southern stream mid-level jet streak is forecast to emerge from northern Mexico into the southern High Plains. This ~40 knot jet streak will overspread portions of the southern High Plains and the dryline. This should provide ample shear for storm organization during the afternoon/evening. Greater storm coverage and severe potential may exist between Midland and Lubbock at the nose of this stronger mid-level flow. However, there is still some uncertainty with the timing/location of this jet streak, so will not add higher probabilities at this time.

Added 5% probabilities farther east across Oklahoma and into southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana. Moderate instability is expected south of a frontal zone in this general area. This may be a focus for storm development Friday afternoon/evening. Shear may be somewhat weak, but the instability and frontal focus could support a few strong to severe storms.

..Bentley.. 05/27/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Saturday, May 30

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270746 SPC AC 270746

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Valid 301200Z - 041200Z

DISCUSSION

On Saturday/D4, an upper low will weaken as it moves from UT into WY, with midlevel wind speeds at or below 25 kt across the northern Rockies/Plains. This feature will persist into Sunday/D5 and Monday/D6 as it moves toward MT and eventually into Canada. Given the weak winds aloft, severe potential should be relatively low, but isolated strong storms may occur over parts of the northern Plains.

Farther south, stronger instability is forecast over the southern and central Plains, where 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints will exist. Although unstable, shear will be quite weak. Saturday/D4 may hold slightly greater severe potential compared to other days, as the southern lobe of the western trough lifts north out of the southern/central Plains. However, shear will still be marginal, and the likelihood antecedent precip/outflows lessens predictability in the weak forcing pattern. The stronger instability air mass appear most prominent through about Monday/D6. Thereafter, an upper trough may amplify over the eastern CONUS, driving high pressure south across the eastern CONUS/MS Valley.

..Jewell.. 05/27/2026

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Outlook for Sunday, May 31

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270746 SPC AC 270746

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Valid 301200Z - 041200Z

DISCUSSION

On Saturday/D4, an upper low will weaken as it moves from UT into WY, with midlevel wind speeds at or below 25 kt across the northern Rockies/Plains. This feature will persist into Sunday/D5 and Monday/D6 as it moves toward MT and eventually into Canada. Given the weak winds aloft, severe potential should be relatively low, but isolated strong storms may occur over parts of the northern Plains.

Farther south, stronger instability is forecast over the southern and central Plains, where 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints will exist. Although unstable, shear will be quite weak. Saturday/D4 may hold slightly greater severe potential compared to other days, as the southern lobe of the western trough lifts north out of the southern/central Plains. However, shear will still be marginal, and the likelihood antecedent precip/outflows lessens predictability in the weak forcing pattern. The stronger instability air mass appear most prominent through about Monday/D6. Thereafter, an upper trough may amplify over the eastern CONUS, driving high pressure south across the eastern CONUS/MS Valley.

..Jewell.. 05/27/2026

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Outlook for Monday, June 1

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270746 SPC AC 270746

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Valid 301200Z - 041200Z

DISCUSSION

On Saturday/D4, an upper low will weaken as it moves from UT into WY, with midlevel wind speeds at or below 25 kt across the northern Rockies/Plains. This feature will persist into Sunday/D5 and Monday/D6 as it moves toward MT and eventually into Canada. Given the weak winds aloft, severe potential should be relatively low, but isolated strong storms may occur over parts of the northern Plains.

Farther south, stronger instability is forecast over the southern and central Plains, where 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints will exist. Although unstable, shear will be quite weak. Saturday/D4 may hold slightly greater severe potential compared to other days, as the southern lobe of the western trough lifts north out of the southern/central Plains. However, shear will still be marginal, and the likelihood antecedent precip/outflows lessens predictability in the weak forcing pattern. The stronger instability air mass appear most prominent through about Monday/D6. Thereafter, an upper trough may amplify over the eastern CONUS, driving high pressure south across the eastern CONUS/MS Valley.

..Jewell.. 05/27/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, June 2

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270746 SPC AC 270746

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Valid 301200Z - 041200Z

DISCUSSION

On Saturday/D4, an upper low will weaken as it moves from UT into WY, with midlevel wind speeds at or below 25 kt across the northern Rockies/Plains. This feature will persist into Sunday/D5 and Monday/D6 as it moves toward MT and eventually into Canada. Given the weak winds aloft, severe potential should be relatively low, but isolated strong storms may occur over parts of the northern Plains.

Farther south, stronger instability is forecast over the southern and central Plains, where 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints will exist. Although unstable, shear will be quite weak. Saturday/D4 may hold slightly greater severe potential compared to other days, as the southern lobe of the western trough lifts north out of the southern/central Plains. However, shear will still be marginal, and the likelihood antecedent precip/outflows lessens predictability in the weak forcing pattern. The stronger instability air mass appear most prominent through about Monday/D6. Thereafter, an upper trough may amplify over the eastern CONUS, driving high pressure south across the eastern CONUS/MS Valley.

..Jewell.. 05/27/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, June 3

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270746 SPC AC 270746

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Valid 301200Z - 041200Z

DISCUSSION

On Saturday/D4, an upper low will weaken as it moves from UT into WY, with midlevel wind speeds at or below 25 kt across the northern Rockies/Plains. This feature will persist into Sunday/D5 and Monday/D6 as it moves toward MT and eventually into Canada. Given the weak winds aloft, severe potential should be relatively low, but isolated strong storms may occur over parts of the northern Plains.

Farther south, stronger instability is forecast over the southern and central Plains, where 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints will exist. Although unstable, shear will be quite weak. Saturday/D4 may hold slightly greater severe potential compared to other days, as the southern lobe of the western trough lifts north out of the southern/central Plains. However, shear will still be marginal, and the likelihood antecedent precip/outflows lessens predictability in the weak forcing pattern. The stronger instability air mass appear most prominent through about Monday/D6. Thereafter, an upper trough may amplify over the eastern CONUS, driving high pressure south across the eastern CONUS/MS Valley.

..Jewell.. 05/27/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Wednesday, May 27

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 15%

Thursday, May 28

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 15%

Friday, May 29

ANY SEVERE: 5%

Saturday, May 30

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Sunday, May 31

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Monday, June 1

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Tuesday, June 2

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Wednesday, June 3

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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