Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, May 9
Outlook Summary
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail, locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a few tornadoes are possible in parts of western into central Oklahoma Saturday afternoon and evening. Sparser large hail and damaging wind occurrences are possible across the Gulf Coast states, the northern and central High Plains, the Great Lakes, and possibly mid-Atlantic.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 090539
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Sat May 09 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS
### SUMMARY
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail, locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a few tornadoes are possible in parts of western into central Oklahoma Saturday afternoon and evening. Sparser large hail and damaging wind occurrences are possible across the Gulf Coast states, the northern and central High Plains, the Great Lakes, and possibly mid-Atlantic.
Synopsis
A broad, cyclonic flow regime is forecast across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies through the forecast period. A number of embedded vorticity maxima moving through that large-scale pattern will potentially aid in strong to severe storm development. The first of which will track from the northern Rockies into the central High Plains by Saturday evening. A stronger disturbance will be attended by mid/upper-level jet streaks while progressing through the Great Lakes region on Saturday. Additional, weaker disturbances will traverse the Gulf Coast states and mid-Atlantic region.
At the surface, a cold front associated with the Great Lakes disturbance will sweep east across that region during the day with the trailing extension of the front advancing south into central High Plains. An area of low pressure is forecast to develop along the front in northwest KS Saturday afternoon with a pre-frontal trough/dryline extending south from the low through the eastern OK/TX Panhandles into west-central TX. Elsewhere, a front stretching from south TX through the shelf waters of the northern Gulf into north FL as of late evening will attempt to lift north as a warm front. The advance of the boundary across the central and eastern Gulf Coast may be impeded by early-day thunderstorms moving through those areas.
### Western and Central Oklahoma into Northwest Texas
The cold front that has pushed into the southern Plains this evening is expected to wash out with initially modest moisture return expected ahead of the trough/dryline with dewpoints increasing through the 50s Saturday afternoon over the far eastern OK/TX Panhandles into western OK. The moisture increase combined with steep low/mid-level lapse rates will support an initially narrow axis of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE by mid/late afternoon.
While large-scale forcing for ascent will remain negligible through the peak of the diurnal heating cycle, strong heating west of the dryline and resultant deepening circulations along it are expected to yield isolated to widely scattered, high-based storms by late afternoon into early evening. 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear will support supercell storm modes with large to very large hail being the predominant hazard.
Considerable strengthening of the low-level jet is forecast across western and central OK Saturday evening, which will enhance low-level shear and the influx of greater, boundary-layer moisture content. There is some model variability in the degree of evening moistening that occurs, with the RAP remaining notably drier than the NAM. Should the NAM scenario be closer to correct, tornado potential would increase during the evening with any sustained supercells from western into central OK. An 5% unconditional probability and conditional-intensity group 1 have been added to account for that possibility.
### Gulf Coast
Clusters of thunderstorms or a quasi-linear MCS is expected to be ongoing at 12z Saturday over the lower MS Valley, aided by a low-level warm/moist advection regime. Forecast soundings suggest that activity may be slightly elevated atop a shallow, near-surface inversion and rooted within a moist environment with MUCAPE upwards of 1500 J/kg. The 00z convection-allowing models suggest that activity will continue south/southeast and potentially become more surface-based across the central and eastern Gulf Coast from late morning into afternoon. Generally weak low/mid-level lapse rates are expected to limit updraft intensity, despite the presence of 40-50 kt effective bulk shear. Nonetheless, the potential will exist for marginally severe hail and locally strong to severe wind gusts, especially if a cold pool can organize.
### Great Lakes
The pre-frontal air mass is not expected to be overly moist on Saturday with dewpoints largely in the upper 40s to low 50s. However, steepening low/mid-level lapse rates are expected to yield a modestly unstable air mass by afternoon with MLCAPE of around 500 J/kg. The destabilization process will coincide with gradually veering low-level winds, which will tend to limit the magnitude of low-level and deep-layer shear.
Forcing for ascent associated with the short-wave trough mentioned in the synopsis coupled with convergence/lift along the front are expected to foster a broken band of thunderstorms initially across eastern lower MI by early afternoon. Additional storms are expected to form farther south along the front in northern OH with the convective band rapidly moving east into portions of western NY and northwest PA by late afternoon or early evening. Cold temperatures aloft will favor isolated occurrences of marginally severe hail. Locally strong wind gusts will also be possible during the afternoon and early evening hours.
### Central Wyoming into southwest Nebraska and Northwest Kansas
Increasing height falls/forcing for ascent preceding the short-wave trough moving out of the northern Rockies will overspread a steep-lapse-rate, but limited-moisture environment Saturday afternoon, fostering the development of widely scattered, high-based storms. The presence of 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear will support some storm organization with the potential for isolated occurrences of large hail and locally damaging winds during the afternoon and evening hours.
### Mid-Atlantic States
A couple weak disturbances traversing the lower Great Lakes and central Appalachians are expected to contribute an area of showers across portions of PA and southern NY into New England Saturday morning into early afternoon. Weak destabilization on the southern fringe of that cloud canopy may support isolated thunderstorm development during the afternoon from the DE River Valley into parts of MD amidst a weakly unstable environment with MLCAPE of only a few hundred J/kg. Both low-level and deep-layer shear will be relatively strong, and the potential will exist for isolated severe weather, on the condition that sufficient instability develops to sustain surface-based thunderstorms.
..Mead/Weinman.. 05/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Sunday, May 10
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gust appear likely Sunday afternoon and evening from parts of west and central Texas east-northeastward into the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter and severe wind gusts above 70 mph will be possible across parts of west-central, central and north Texas.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 30%
hail 30%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 090600
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat May 09 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gust appear likely Sunday afternoon and evening from parts of west and central Texas east-northeastward into the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter and severe wind gusts above 70 mph will be possible across parts of west-central, central and north Texas.
Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex/Lower Mississippi Valley
A positively-tilted mid-level shortwave trough will move southeastward into the southern Plains on Sunday. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward across an area from west and north Texas into the Ark-La-Tex. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 65 to 70 F range, which will contribute to moderate destabilization by afternoon. Surface-based convective initiation is expected around midday, as surface warming takes place and low-level convergence increases near the front. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms appear likely to develop, with a large complex of storms moving southeastward across north and central Texas during the afternoon.
South of the front over much of the southern Plains, model forecasts increase MLCAPE into the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range by afternoon. Also, 850-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be between 7.5 and 8 C/km ahead of the front. This, combined with 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 40 knot range, will be favorable for semi-discrete supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible in areas that destabilize the most, particularly across parts of west-central and north-central Texas. In addition, 0-3 km lapse rates are forecast to become very steep, exceeding 9 C/km in some areas. As cells increase in coverage and merge during the mid to late afternoon, MCS development will be possible. The very steep low-level lapse rates will support a wind-damage threat. If a cold pool can organize, then the wind-damage threat would likely increase during the late afternoon, and wind gusts above 70 mph would be possible.
Further east-northeast into the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley, convective coverage is expected to be a bit more widely spaced. The environment will be characterized by moderate deep-layer shear and sufficient instability for a severe threat. Damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail will be the primary threats.
Southeast
A very moist airmass will be in place on Sunday from the central Gulf Coast states eastward to the Atlantic. Surface dewpoints will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s F, with moderate instability developing by afternoon. Although large-scale ascent will be limited, convergence boundaries appear likely to develop inland from the coastal areas during the afternoon. Storms that can form along these favored zones may have potential for isolated severe wind gusts, mainly due to precipitation loading.
..Broyles.. 05/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Monday, May 11
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe storms with locally damaging wind gusts are expected on Monday from parts of the central Gulf Coast states eastward to the southern Atlantic Seaboard.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 090714
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Sat May 09 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST STATES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe storms with locally damaging wind gusts are expected on Monday from parts of the central Gulf Coast states eastward to the southern Atlantic Seaboard.
Central and Eastern Gulf Coast States/Carolinas
At mid-levels, heights will fall across the Southeast on Monday, as a trough progresses eastward into the Atlantic coastal states. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the Southeast. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place inland across the central Gulf Coast and northeastward into much of Georgia, South Carolina and far southern North Carolina. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop around midday along and ahead of the front, and near coastal convergence zones. Steep low-level lapse rates and deep low-level moisture will be favorable for isolated severe gusts associated with multicells that develop in the afternoon.
..Broyles.. 05/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Tuesday, May 12
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, May 11 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, May 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, May 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, May 15 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080831 SPC AC 080831
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CDT Fri May 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6
Mid-level northwesterly flow is forecast to persist across much of the central and eastern U.S. during the period from Monday to Wednesday. A cold front is forecast to move through the Southeast on Monday and into the Gulf and Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday. Isolated severe thunderstorm development will be possible near and ahead of the front each day, with the greatest potential for severe Monday afternoon and evening in parts of southern Alabama, southern Georgia, northern Florida and the coastal Carolinas. Isolated severe wind gusts is expected to be the primary threat.
Further to the north on Tuesday, another cold front is forecast to move southward through the central Plains and mid Mississippi Valley. Although low-level moisture is forecast to remain somewhat limited, enough instability could develop for an isolated severe threat. The greatest potential would be in eastern Missouri and southern Illinois in conjunction with a mid-level jet moving southeastward through the region. Hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible. A marginal severe threat could again develop near the associated trough over the central Appalachians Wednesday afternoon.
Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8
A shortwave ridge is forecast to move eastward toward the Mississippi Valley on Thursday, as another shortwave ridge moves into the High Plains on Friday. In the wake of each ridge, model forecasts develop a north-to-south axis of instability in the Great Plains. Isolated severe storms will be possible within this unstable airmass on both Thursday and Friday. At this time, uncertainty is substantial late in the day 4 to 8 period.
..Broyles.. 05/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, May 13
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, May 11 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, May 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, May 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, May 15 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080831 SPC AC 080831
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CDT Fri May 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6
Mid-level northwesterly flow is forecast to persist across much of the central and eastern U.S. during the period from Monday to Wednesday. A cold front is forecast to move through the Southeast on Monday and into the Gulf and Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday. Isolated severe thunderstorm development will be possible near and ahead of the front each day, with the greatest potential for severe Monday afternoon and evening in parts of southern Alabama, southern Georgia, northern Florida and the coastal Carolinas. Isolated severe wind gusts is expected to be the primary threat.
Further to the north on Tuesday, another cold front is forecast to move southward through the central Plains and mid Mississippi Valley. Although low-level moisture is forecast to remain somewhat limited, enough instability could develop for an isolated severe threat. The greatest potential would be in eastern Missouri and southern Illinois in conjunction with a mid-level jet moving southeastward through the region. Hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible. A marginal severe threat could again develop near the associated trough over the central Appalachians Wednesday afternoon.
Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8
A shortwave ridge is forecast to move eastward toward the Mississippi Valley on Thursday, as another shortwave ridge moves into the High Plains on Friday. In the wake of each ridge, model forecasts develop a north-to-south axis of instability in the Great Plains. Isolated severe storms will be possible within this unstable airmass on both Thursday and Friday. At this time, uncertainty is substantial late in the day 4 to 8 period.
..Broyles.. 05/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, May 14
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, May 11 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, May 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, May 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, May 15 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080831 SPC AC 080831
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CDT Fri May 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6
Mid-level northwesterly flow is forecast to persist across much of the central and eastern U.S. during the period from Monday to Wednesday. A cold front is forecast to move through the Southeast on Monday and into the Gulf and Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday. Isolated severe thunderstorm development will be possible near and ahead of the front each day, with the greatest potential for severe Monday afternoon and evening in parts of southern Alabama, southern Georgia, northern Florida and the coastal Carolinas. Isolated severe wind gusts is expected to be the primary threat.
Further to the north on Tuesday, another cold front is forecast to move southward through the central Plains and mid Mississippi Valley. Although low-level moisture is forecast to remain somewhat limited, enough instability could develop for an isolated severe threat. The greatest potential would be in eastern Missouri and southern Illinois in conjunction with a mid-level jet moving southeastward through the region. Hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible. A marginal severe threat could again develop near the associated trough over the central Appalachians Wednesday afternoon.
Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8
A shortwave ridge is forecast to move eastward toward the Mississippi Valley on Thursday, as another shortwave ridge moves into the High Plains on Friday. In the wake of each ridge, model forecasts develop a north-to-south axis of instability in the Great Plains. Isolated severe storms will be possible within this unstable airmass on both Thursday and Friday. At this time, uncertainty is substantial late in the day 4 to 8 period.
..Broyles.. 05/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, May 15
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, May 11 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, May 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, May 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, May 15 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080831 SPC AC 080831
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CDT Fri May 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6
Mid-level northwesterly flow is forecast to persist across much of the central and eastern U.S. during the period from Monday to Wednesday. A cold front is forecast to move through the Southeast on Monday and into the Gulf and Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday. Isolated severe thunderstorm development will be possible near and ahead of the front each day, with the greatest potential for severe Monday afternoon and evening in parts of southern Alabama, southern Georgia, northern Florida and the coastal Carolinas. Isolated severe wind gusts is expected to be the primary threat.
Further to the north on Tuesday, another cold front is forecast to move southward through the central Plains and mid Mississippi Valley. Although low-level moisture is forecast to remain somewhat limited, enough instability could develop for an isolated severe threat. The greatest potential would be in eastern Missouri and southern Illinois in conjunction with a mid-level jet moving southeastward through the region. Hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible. A marginal severe threat could again develop near the associated trough over the central Appalachians Wednesday afternoon.
Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8
A shortwave ridge is forecast to move eastward toward the Mississippi Valley on Thursday, as another shortwave ridge moves into the High Plains on Friday. In the wake of each ridge, model forecasts develop a north-to-south axis of instability in the Great Plains. Isolated severe storms will be possible within this unstable airmass on both Thursday and Friday. At this time, uncertainty is substantial late in the day 4 to 8 period.
..Broyles.. 05/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, May 9
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Sunday, May 10
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 30%
- WIND: 30%
- Monday, May 11
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Tuesday, May 12
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, May 13
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, May 14
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, May 15
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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