Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, October 25
Outlook Summary
Isolated large hail, and a tornado or two will be possible this afternoon/evening across central/eastern New Mexico and Far West Texas. Isolated damaging wind gusts will also be possible across Far West Texas.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 251218
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0718 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026
Valid 251300Z - 261200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS AND THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
### SUMMARY
Isolated large hail, and a tornado or two will be possible this afternoon/evening across central/eastern New Mexico and Far West Texas. Isolated damaging wind gusts will also be possible across Far West Texas.
NM/Far West TX
A large upper trough remains over AZ, with deep southwesterly flow across much of NM and west TX. Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough moving into northern Mexico, which will move into eastern NM by early evening, providing support for a few strong/severe storms - mainly over three small areas.
The first area of concern will be over central NM as a mid-level cold pocket interacts with the western edge of residual low-level moisture. Forecast soundings in this area appear favorable for hail in the strongest cells late this afternoon, although the risk of severe hail is less certain.
Another area of risk is in southeast NM and far west TX where strong daytime heating will yield MUCAPE values around 2000 J/kg and slightly steeper low-level lapse rates. Any persistent cells in this area will pose a risk of hail and gusty winds. Limited coverage precludes an upgrade to SLGT at this time.
And finally, a surface baroclinic zone is expected to lie from east-central NM into west TX (roughly east of ABQ to near DHT) early this evening. Multiple CAMs suggest a strong cell or two will track along this boundary, with supercell structures possible. Steep lapse rates and favorable hodographs support a risk of hail and perhaps a tornado along this corridor.
..Hart/Dean.. 10/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Monday, October 26
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to be low on Monday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 250502
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to be low on Monday.
Synopsis
An upper shortwave trough initially over the southern/central High Plains, will lift northeast to the Upper Midwest on Monday into early Tuesday. Large-scale upper troughing will persist across the western U.S. as a deepening cyclone and attendant shortwave trough deepen and spread southeast over the Great Basin and Intermountain West. Southerly low-level flow will maintain modest boundary layer moisture across the southern Plains vicinity ahead of a cold front progressing south/southeast across the central Plains and Mid-MO Valley.
Modest destabilization is forecast from southwest TX, southern/eastern NM, portions of the OK/TX Panhandles, and far southwest KS. Isolated thunderstorms may develop toward late afternoon through evening. Effective shear around 25-30 kt could support transient storm organization, but southwest flow below 500 mb is forecast to remain fairly weak. Furthermore, warmer midlevel temperatures may hinder stronger updrafts despite modest instability. While the strongest storms could produce small hail, overall severe potential appears limited, precluding Level 1/Marginal risk probabilities.
..Leitman.. 10/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Tuesday, October 27
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 250639
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.
Synopsis
A series of upper troughs will migrate across the north-central U.S. on Tuesday while upper ridging amplifies over the East. Southerly low-level flow will maintain modest boundary layer moisture (mainly 50s F dewpoints) from OK/KS into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes, with 60s F dewpoints possible further south across TX. A surface front initially over KS to central IA will lift northward through the period in response to increasing low-level warm advection ahead of a shortwave trough traversing the northern Plains. Isolated thunderstorms are possible within the broader warm advection regime across parts of the Plains from South TX into the Mid-MO Valley. Modest instability and generally weak vertical shear will preclude severe potential.
..Leitman.. 10/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Wednesday, October 28
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, October 30 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, November 1 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250717 SPC AC 250717
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
Generally broad, modest southwesterly mid/upper flow within a lower amplitude upper pattern will overspread much of the central/eastern CONUS through Day 6 or 7/Fri or Sat. Southerly low-level flow will be maintained across the Plains to the MS Valley during this time, supporting increasing boundary layer moisture. Periods of showers and thunderstorms will be possible, but modest instability and weak vertical shear will preclude severe potential.
..Leitman.. 10/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, October 29
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, October 30 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, November 1 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250717 SPC AC 250717
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
Generally broad, modest southwesterly mid/upper flow within a lower amplitude upper pattern will overspread much of the central/eastern CONUS through Day 6 or 7/Fri or Sat. Southerly low-level flow will be maintained across the Plains to the MS Valley during this time, supporting increasing boundary layer moisture. Periods of showers and thunderstorms will be possible, but modest instability and weak vertical shear will preclude severe potential.
..Leitman.. 10/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, October 30
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, October 30 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, November 1 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250717 SPC AC 250717
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
Generally broad, modest southwesterly mid/upper flow within a lower amplitude upper pattern will overspread much of the central/eastern CONUS through Day 6 or 7/Fri or Sat. Southerly low-level flow will be maintained across the Plains to the MS Valley during this time, supporting increasing boundary layer moisture. Periods of showers and thunderstorms will be possible, but modest instability and weak vertical shear will preclude severe potential.
..Leitman.. 10/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, October 31
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, October 30 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, November 1 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250717 SPC AC 250717
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
Generally broad, modest southwesterly mid/upper flow within a lower amplitude upper pattern will overspread much of the central/eastern CONUS through Day 6 or 7/Fri or Sat. Southerly low-level flow will be maintained across the Plains to the MS Valley during this time, supporting increasing boundary layer moisture. Periods of showers and thunderstorms will be possible, but modest instability and weak vertical shear will preclude severe potential.
..Leitman.. 10/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, November 1
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, October 30 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, November 1 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250717 SPC AC 250717
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
Generally broad, modest southwesterly mid/upper flow within a lower amplitude upper pattern will overspread much of the central/eastern CONUS through Day 6 or 7/Fri or Sat. Southerly low-level flow will be maintained across the Plains to the MS Valley during this time, supporting increasing boundary layer moisture. Periods of showers and thunderstorms will be possible, but modest instability and weak vertical shear will preclude severe potential.
..Leitman.. 10/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, October 25
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Monday, October 26
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, October 27
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Wednesday, October 28
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, October 29
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, October 30
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, October 31
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, November 1
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Your Severe Outlook
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