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Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.
← back to overviewSPC AC 131933
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026
Valid 132000Z - 141200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.
20z Update
No changes are needed for the Day 1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion for more information.
..Thornton.. 01/13/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026/
Synopsis
Upper pattern is expected to undergo significant amplification today as a series of shortwave troughs act to deepen the upper troughing across the central and eastern CONUS, and the upper ridging over the western CONUS remains in place. Primary amplification will be associated with a pair of phased shortwave troughs moving through the western periphery of the upper troughing over the Plains and Upper Midwest.
Continental airmass associated with these shortwaves will also act to reinforce the dry and stable conditions already in place across the majority of the central and eastern CONUS. The only exception currently is across far south FL and the FL Keys, where remaining low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the upper 60s) is supporting modest buoyancy. This buoyancy coupled with low-level convergence in the vicinity of the southeast FL coast and the Keys is fostering some deeper convective cores. A few lightning flashes have recently been observed near the middle Keys, and the expectation is for occasional flashes to persist from the Keys into the far southeast FL Coast throughout the day.
Lastly, broad ascent is anticipated across the Southeast tonight/early tomorrow, resulting from a combination of lift associated with the southernmost shortwave moving through upper trough and lift attendant to another shortwave moving from TX into the Lower MS Valley. Dry and stable low-levels will keep the region free of sustained deep convection, but some forecast soundings do show limited and shallow buoyancy above 700 mb. As such, there is low potential for a flash or two across this region.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across southeast Florida and the Keys on Wednesday.
← back to overviewSPC AC 131716
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across southeast Florida and the Keys on Wednesday.
Southeast FL and the Keys
Within the base of an amplified large-scale trough encompassing the eastern half of the CONUS, a midlevel shortwave trough will advance eastward across the Gulf of America toward the FL Peninsula. In response, an initially stalled front will move eastward across Southeast FL and the Keys during the afternoon. Most guidance (with the exception of the RAP) depicts marginally sufficient buoyancy for isolated thunderstorms along the eastward-moving front during the day. A secondary/stronger cold front will approach western FL late in the period, though thunderstorms are not currently expected owing to limited buoyancy.
..Weinman.. 01/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across far southern Florida and the Keys on Thursday.
← back to overviewSPC AC 131904
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across far southern Florida and the Keys on Thursday.
Southern FL and the Keys
A robust midlevel trough will advance eastward across the Southeast into the western Atlantic during the day, while a related cold front moves southeastward across far southern FL and the Keys. While buoyancy will be limited, frontal convergence and at least modest midlevel height falls should support isolated thunderstorms during the morning and afternoon. Despite ample deep-layer shear, the weak buoyancy should tend to limit updraft strength and related severe potential.
..Weinman.. 01/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
| Day 4 | Friday, January 16 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, January 17 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, January 18 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, January 19 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, January 20 | potential too low |
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130935 SPC AC 130935
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
A persistent eastern U.S large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to remain in place through the Day 4 to 8 period. As a result, northwesterly mid-level flow is forecast over much of the continental U.S. In response, multiple cold air intrusions are expected to take place across the central and eastern U.S. This will keep a relatively dry and cold airmass over much of the nation through early next week. For this reason, conditions will be unfavorable for thunderstorms in most areas, and a severe threat is not forecast in the Day 4 to 8 period.
..Broyles.. 01/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
| Day 4 | Friday, January 16 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, January 17 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, January 18 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, January 19 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, January 20 | potential too low |
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130935 SPC AC 130935
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
A persistent eastern U.S large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to remain in place through the Day 4 to 8 period. As a result, northwesterly mid-level flow is forecast over much of the continental U.S. In response, multiple cold air intrusions are expected to take place across the central and eastern U.S. This will keep a relatively dry and cold airmass over much of the nation through early next week. For this reason, conditions will be unfavorable for thunderstorms in most areas, and a severe threat is not forecast in the Day 4 to 8 period.
..Broyles.. 01/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
| Day 4 | Friday, January 16 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, January 17 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, January 18 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, January 19 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, January 20 | potential too low |
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130935 SPC AC 130935
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
A persistent eastern U.S large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to remain in place through the Day 4 to 8 period. As a result, northwesterly mid-level flow is forecast over much of the continental U.S. In response, multiple cold air intrusions are expected to take place across the central and eastern U.S. This will keep a relatively dry and cold airmass over much of the nation through early next week. For this reason, conditions will be unfavorable for thunderstorms in most areas, and a severe threat is not forecast in the Day 4 to 8 period.
..Broyles.. 01/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
| Day 4 | Friday, January 16 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, January 17 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, January 18 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, January 19 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, January 20 | potential too low |
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130935 SPC AC 130935
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
A persistent eastern U.S large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to remain in place through the Day 4 to 8 period. As a result, northwesterly mid-level flow is forecast over much of the continental U.S. In response, multiple cold air intrusions are expected to take place across the central and eastern U.S. This will keep a relatively dry and cold airmass over much of the nation through early next week. For this reason, conditions will be unfavorable for thunderstorms in most areas, and a severe threat is not forecast in the Day 4 to 8 period.
..Broyles.. 01/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
| Day 4 | Friday, January 16 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, January 17 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, January 18 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, January 19 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, January 20 | potential too low |
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130935 SPC AC 130935
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
A persistent eastern U.S large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to remain in place through the Day 4 to 8 period. As a result, northwesterly mid-level flow is forecast over much of the continental U.S. In response, multiple cold air intrusions are expected to take place across the central and eastern U.S. This will keep a relatively dry and cold airmass over much of the nation through early next week. For this reason, conditions will be unfavorable for thunderstorms in most areas, and a severe threat is not forecast in the Day 4 to 8 period.
..Broyles.. 01/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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