Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Tuesday, February 17

Outlook Summary

Isolated strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the West today through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are also anticipated across the Upper Midwest late this afternoon and tonight.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 172013

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Valid 172000Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND IOWA

CORRECTED FOR NDFD COLOR FILL ISSUE

SUMMARY

Isolated strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the West today through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are also anticipated across the Upper Midwest late this afternoon and tonight.

Eastern Nebraska and southwestern Iowa

Near the base of a negative-tilt shortwave trough and a pronounced 100+ kt mid-level jet, strong ascent is expected to develop late this afternoon amid a mixed and modestly moist air mass. Cool mid-level temperatures and surface dewpoints in the 40s and 50s F may allow a few hundred J/kg of buoyancy to develop. This destabilization and strong ascent may support a fast-moving arc of high-based showers/thunderstorms, particularly where surface temperatures reach into the 60s and dewpoints hold above 40 F. While buoyancy will be weak, dry low-levels and strong dynamics/background flow could support efficient downward mixing of momentum to the surface. Isolated severe/damaging gusts are possible this afternoon and evening from parts of eastern NE into west-central IA. Convection should weaken rapidly with eastward extent

Elsewhere, isolated strong storms remain possible across portions of the CA coast ahead of a strong secondary upper trough. This is most likely overnight with a few damaging gusts or a brief tornado the primary risks owing to very strong flow and modest inland moisture advection. No changes were made to the outlook here, see the prior discussion for more info.

..Lyons.. 02/17/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1031 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026/

Synopsis

Recent satellite imagery shows several disturbances across the western CONUS, including a pair of low-amplitude shortwave troughs within the belt of strong southwesterly flow extending from the central Pacific into the central Plains and a deepening upper low off the Pacific Northwest coast. Intense surface cyclogenesis is anticipated ahead of the lead shortwave as it moves quickly northeastward, with the resulting surface low forecast to move across SD/NE, ending the period over southern MN. Evolution of this surface low and parent shortwave, which will become increasingly negatively tilted throughout the day and overnight, will result in strong forcing for ascent from the Mid MO Valley into the Upper Midwest this evening and overnight.

Farther west, the previously mentioned upper low is expected to drop slowly southward as a strong jet (i.e. 100 kt at 500 mb) pivots around its western and southern periphery. Very cold mid-level temperatures and strong/persistent forcing for ascent will support isolated thunderstorms along across much of the West coast throughout the day and tonight.

Coastal California

Limited buoyancy is expected to develop along the near coastal areas of CA as very cold mid-level temperatures (i.e. -25 to -30 deg C at 500 mb) associated with the upper low continue to advect into the region. This buoyancy coupled with the strong forcing for ascent could result in some deeper, more persistent updrafts across the region today, both within the primary frontal band and any more bowing line segments that may follow it. Given the robust deep layer flow across the region, any deeper, more persistent updrafts could result in some stronger, convectively augmented gusts. Additionally, there appears to be enough low-level curvature to support a brief tornado or two within the immediate coastal regions. Highest potential for either hazards currently appears to be after 00Z in the San Luis Obispo/Santa Barbara county areas.

Upper Midwest

Some low-level moisture return is anticipated across the region ahead of the previously mentioned shortwave trough and associated forcing for ascent. Even so, low-level moisture will still be limited, with dewpoints likely remaining in the upper 40s to perhaps low 50s. This is not expected to be enough moisture for surface destabilization across most of the region, despite strong surface heating/boundary-layer mixing and steepening low-level lapse rates in vicinity of the surface low/front. The only exception is across far southeast SD and far northeast NE where a high-based storm or two cannot be completely ruled out. Any that does develop could produce an strong gust or two, although coverage will likely remain less than 10%.

Across the Upper Midwest, capping may tend to largely prevail during the day, with elevated thunderstorms becoming more probable east-northeastward of IA into the MN/WI throughout the evening and overnight. Instability does not appear strong enough to support severe hail with this elevated activity.

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, February 18

Outlook Summary

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible along parts of the West Coast, lower Ohio/mid-Mississippi Valley, and lower Great Lakes regions. Severe weather is not anticipated.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 171708

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible along parts of the West Coast, lower Ohio/mid-Mississippi Valley, and lower Great Lakes regions. Severe weather is not anticipated.

Synopsis

A pair of successive shortwave troughs are expected to progress north-northeastward on Wednesday into Thursday morning. The initial, weaker perturbation will move from the mid-Mississippi Valley into the upper Ohio Valley. Some thunderstorm potential will exist ahead of this feature within a warm advection regime in lower Michigan into northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

Farther west, a more potent shortwave will move from the lower Colorado Valley/western Great Basin into the central Plains by Thursday morning. In its wake, general troughing will in the West. Cold temperatures aloft will foster potential for isolated thunderstorms along much of the West Coast. A few lightning flashes may also occur ahead of the progressing shortwave trough in the eastern Great Basin. However, ample cloud cover and cool/cold temperatures will keep such activity quite sparse.

A surface low will develop late in the period in the central High Plains and shift into eastern Kansas/western Missouri by Thursday morning. Mid-level ascent and warm/moist advection will gradually increase from the Mississippi/Ohio confluence into parts of the lower Ohio Valley. There is some signal from both global and regional CAM guidance for development very late in the period near the Mississippi/Ohio confluence. Farther north and east, capping may prevail given more nebulous forcing. Severe weather is not anticipated with any of the activity in these regions.

..Wendt.. 02/17/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z

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Outlook for Thursday, February 19

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms with potential to produce a few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts are possible across parts of the middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys Thursday afternoon into early evening.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 171927

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms with potential to produce a few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts are possible across parts of the middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys Thursday afternoon into early evening.

Synopsis

Two shortwave troughs are expected to quickly lift north-northeastward through the central Plains and into the Ohio Valley region on Thursday. The initial perturbation will reach Illinois/Indiana by early afternoon. The intensity of this feature will remain modest with perhaps some gradual weakening in time. The second trough will evolve in the lower Missouri Valley during the evening and intensify as it approaches the lower Ohio Valley by Friday morning. At the surface, a cyclone will deepen as it lifts northeastward from eastern Kansas into the Great Lakes region. At least partially modified Gulf moisture will advect northward ahead of the surface cold front from the Upper Midwest into the southern Plains.

Lower/middle Ohio Valley

Ahead of the cold front, a prefrontal trough/pseudo dryline is expected to be the focus for convective development during the afternoon. The degree/quality of moisture return ahead of this feature will be key in terms of the overall magnitude of the severe threat. Current observations (Tuesday) from soundings depict a very modest moist layer along the Gulf coast. A modest shortwave trough on Tuesday night into Wednesday will lift northward too quickly for more substantial moisture return. The surface pattern on Thursday will be more robust, but deeper moisture may still not reach far enough north given that mid 60s F dewpoints are only as far north as the central Gulf currently. Guidance suggests mid to upper 50s F dewpoints are most probable, which does seem reasonable. That said, temperatures aloft will not be overly cold and lapse rates will not be overly steep. This will lead to convection that may remain somewhat low topped in nature. Despite limiting factors within the environment, 40-50 kts of effective shear roughly perpendicular to the boundary will favor discrete storms. Low-level flow will be increasing with time as well. Supercells capable of few tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated large hail are possible during the afternoon/evening.

..Wendt.. 02/17/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z

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Outlook for Friday, February 20

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170950 SPC AC 170950

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

In general, the latest medium-range guidance indicates that an initially notable surface cyclone over the upper Great Lakes region at the outset of the period will undergo substantive weakening, as a supporting short wave impulse becomes sheared and weakens to the south of a blocking mid-level ridge centered over southern Hudson Bay. It appears that secondary cyclogenesis across and offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast Friday through Friday night will be subdued, with a trailing cold front stalling across the southern Atlantic through Gulf coast vicinity into Saturday, near the southern periphery of the seasonably strong westerlies.

Forcing for ascent associated with trailing short wave perturbations, emerging from larger-scale mid-level troughing progressing out of the West, may remain largely to the cool side of the surface frontal zone. However, further moistening along it could support sufficient destabilization for vigorous, perhaps upscale growing and training, thunderstorm development, which could pose at least some risk for producing severe hail and wind. While severe thunderstorm probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent in this outlook, it is still possible that this could change in later outlook updates for the Friday/Saturday time period.

Thereafter, amplifying mid/upper flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific into North America through early next week appears likely to include building large-scale ridging inland of the Pacific coast through the Mississippi Valley. Beneath the confluent regime in the wake of digging downstream troughing, cold surface ridging is forecast to build southward to the lee of the Rockies, through much of the Gulf Basin. Associated low-level drying and stabilization probably will tend to limit convective potential through the remainder of the period.

..Kerr.. 02/17/2026

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Outlook for Saturday, February 21

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170950 SPC AC 170950

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

In general, the latest medium-range guidance indicates that an initially notable surface cyclone over the upper Great Lakes region at the outset of the period will undergo substantive weakening, as a supporting short wave impulse becomes sheared and weakens to the south of a blocking mid-level ridge centered over southern Hudson Bay. It appears that secondary cyclogenesis across and offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast Friday through Friday night will be subdued, with a trailing cold front stalling across the southern Atlantic through Gulf coast vicinity into Saturday, near the southern periphery of the seasonably strong westerlies.

Forcing for ascent associated with trailing short wave perturbations, emerging from larger-scale mid-level troughing progressing out of the West, may remain largely to the cool side of the surface frontal zone. However, further moistening along it could support sufficient destabilization for vigorous, perhaps upscale growing and training, thunderstorm development, which could pose at least some risk for producing severe hail and wind. While severe thunderstorm probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent in this outlook, it is still possible that this could change in later outlook updates for the Friday/Saturday time period.

Thereafter, amplifying mid/upper flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific into North America through early next week appears likely to include building large-scale ridging inland of the Pacific coast through the Mississippi Valley. Beneath the confluent regime in the wake of digging downstream troughing, cold surface ridging is forecast to build southward to the lee of the Rockies, through much of the Gulf Basin. Associated low-level drying and stabilization probably will tend to limit convective potential through the remainder of the period.

..Kerr.. 02/17/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, February 22

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170950 SPC AC 170950

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

In general, the latest medium-range guidance indicates that an initially notable surface cyclone over the upper Great Lakes region at the outset of the period will undergo substantive weakening, as a supporting short wave impulse becomes sheared and weakens to the south of a blocking mid-level ridge centered over southern Hudson Bay. It appears that secondary cyclogenesis across and offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast Friday through Friday night will be subdued, with a trailing cold front stalling across the southern Atlantic through Gulf coast vicinity into Saturday, near the southern periphery of the seasonably strong westerlies.

Forcing for ascent associated with trailing short wave perturbations, emerging from larger-scale mid-level troughing progressing out of the West, may remain largely to the cool side of the surface frontal zone. However, further moistening along it could support sufficient destabilization for vigorous, perhaps upscale growing and training, thunderstorm development, which could pose at least some risk for producing severe hail and wind. While severe thunderstorm probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent in this outlook, it is still possible that this could change in later outlook updates for the Friday/Saturday time period.

Thereafter, amplifying mid/upper flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific into North America through early next week appears likely to include building large-scale ridging inland of the Pacific coast through the Mississippi Valley. Beneath the confluent regime in the wake of digging downstream troughing, cold surface ridging is forecast to build southward to the lee of the Rockies, through much of the Gulf Basin. Associated low-level drying and stabilization probably will tend to limit convective potential through the remainder of the period.

..Kerr.. 02/17/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, February 23

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170950 SPC AC 170950

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

In general, the latest medium-range guidance indicates that an initially notable surface cyclone over the upper Great Lakes region at the outset of the period will undergo substantive weakening, as a supporting short wave impulse becomes sheared and weakens to the south of a blocking mid-level ridge centered over southern Hudson Bay. It appears that secondary cyclogenesis across and offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast Friday through Friday night will be subdued, with a trailing cold front stalling across the southern Atlantic through Gulf coast vicinity into Saturday, near the southern periphery of the seasonably strong westerlies.

Forcing for ascent associated with trailing short wave perturbations, emerging from larger-scale mid-level troughing progressing out of the West, may remain largely to the cool side of the surface frontal zone. However, further moistening along it could support sufficient destabilization for vigorous, perhaps upscale growing and training, thunderstorm development, which could pose at least some risk for producing severe hail and wind. While severe thunderstorm probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent in this outlook, it is still possible that this could change in later outlook updates for the Friday/Saturday time period.

Thereafter, amplifying mid/upper flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific into North America through early next week appears likely to include building large-scale ridging inland of the Pacific coast through the Mississippi Valley. Beneath the confluent regime in the wake of digging downstream troughing, cold surface ridging is forecast to build southward to the lee of the Rockies, through much of the Gulf Basin. Associated low-level drying and stabilization probably will tend to limit convective potential through the remainder of the period.

..Kerr.. 02/17/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, February 24

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170950 SPC AC 170950

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

In general, the latest medium-range guidance indicates that an initially notable surface cyclone over the upper Great Lakes region at the outset of the period will undergo substantive weakening, as a supporting short wave impulse becomes sheared and weakens to the south of a blocking mid-level ridge centered over southern Hudson Bay. It appears that secondary cyclogenesis across and offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast Friday through Friday night will be subdued, with a trailing cold front stalling across the southern Atlantic through Gulf coast vicinity into Saturday, near the southern periphery of the seasonably strong westerlies.

Forcing for ascent associated with trailing short wave perturbations, emerging from larger-scale mid-level troughing progressing out of the West, may remain largely to the cool side of the surface frontal zone. However, further moistening along it could support sufficient destabilization for vigorous, perhaps upscale growing and training, thunderstorm development, which could pose at least some risk for producing severe hail and wind. While severe thunderstorm probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent in this outlook, it is still possible that this could change in later outlook updates for the Friday/Saturday time period.

Thereafter, amplifying mid/upper flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific into North America through early next week appears likely to include building large-scale ridging inland of the Pacific coast through the Mississippi Valley. Beneath the confluent regime in the wake of digging downstream troughing, cold surface ridging is forecast to build southward to the lee of the Rockies, through much of the Gulf Basin. Associated low-level drying and stabilization probably will tend to limit convective potential through the remainder of the period.

..Kerr.. 02/17/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Tuesday, February 17

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: low

WIND: 5%

Wednesday, February 18

TORNADO: low

HAIL: low

WIND: low

Thursday, February 19

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Friday, February 20

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Saturday, February 21

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Sunday, February 22

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Monday, February 23

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Tuesday, February 24

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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