Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, January 12
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 121937
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026
Valid 122000Z - 131200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight.
Synopsis
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made.
..Squitieri.. 01/12/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026/
Synopsis and Discussion
Largely cyclonic flow aloft is anticipated over much of the central and eastern CONUS today, while a modifying Rex block configuration evolves over the western CONUS. Stable conditions are forecast across the majority of the CONUS, with offshore trajectories persisting across the Southeast and a reinforcing surge of cold air across the northern and central Plains as shortwave trough drops southeastward out the Canadian Prairies into the Upper Midwest this evening.
A few lightning flashes could occur with the elevated convection expected tonight from TX Rio Grande Valley into the TX Hill Country as the upper low associated with the modifying Rex Block progresses across central Mexico. A flash or two could also occur along the southeast FL Coast after 04Z, where low-level convergence and moderate low-level moisture may result in sporadic deep convection. However, overall thunderstorm coverage is currently forecast to be less than 10% in both of these areas.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Tuesday, January 13
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 121651
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.
Synopsis
A large-scale upper trough is forecast to amplify across the central/eastern CONUS on Tuesday. Within the large-scale trough, multiple embedded shortwaves will move across parts of the northern Plains and Midwest/Great Lakes, while a weak upper low initially over southwest TX will eject eastward as a shortwave trough. A surface low is forecast to move across parts of Ontario and southern Quebec. A weak cold front will move across parts of the central Plains into the Ohio Valley, while a stronger reinforcing front will move across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes late in the period.
Moisture return within the warm sector of the primary cyclone is expected to remain too meager for any appreciable destabilization and thunderstorm threat. One area where thunderstorm development cannot be ruled out is across far southeast FL and the Keys, where some low-level moistening beneath cooling midlevel temperatures may support MUCAPE of around 500-1000 J/kg. Generally weak large-scale ascent and a warm layer around 700 mb are expected to limit thunderstorm coverage, but a storm or two may develop, especially near or just offshore of the southeast FL coast, within a low-level convergence zone.
..Dean.. 01/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Wednesday, January 14
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorm potential appears low on Wednesday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 121910
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorm potential appears low on Wednesday.
Synopsis
A deep upper trough will remain in place across the central/eastern CONUS on Wednesday. Within the large-scale trough, embedded shortwave troughs will move through parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes, central Gulf Coast/Southeast, and the Florida Peninsula. A surface low initially over Quebec will move quickly northeastward, with new surface low development expected near southern New England later in the period, and frontal wave development possible offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard. A reinforcing cold front will move through much of the central/eastern CONUS through the period.
With the exception of south FL, prefrontal moisture return is expected to be too meager for appreciable destabilization. Across south FL, weak buoyancy may be in place Wednesday morning, but most guidance suggests that thunderstorm potential will largely be offshore by the start of the period (12Z Wednesday morning). Late in the period, weak convection associated with the approaching shortwave trough and cold front may affect parts of the FL Peninsula, but forecast buoyancy by late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning appears too weak/shallow for appreciable thunderstorm potential.
..Dean.. 01/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Thursday, January 15
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, January 15 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, January 16 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, January 17 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, January 18 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, January 19 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120954 SPC AC 120954
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
A persistent large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to remain over the east-central U.S. during the Day 4 to 8 period. This pattern will be favorable for repeated cold air intrusions into the continental U.S late this week into early next week. As a result, cool and dry conditions are expected to remain in place over much of the nation, making thunderstorm development unlikely in most areas. No severe threat is forecast to develop over the continental U.S. through early next week.
..Broyles.. 01/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, January 16
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, January 15 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, January 16 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, January 17 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, January 18 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, January 19 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120954 SPC AC 120954
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
A persistent large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to remain over the east-central U.S. during the Day 4 to 8 period. This pattern will be favorable for repeated cold air intrusions into the continental U.S late this week into early next week. As a result, cool and dry conditions are expected to remain in place over much of the nation, making thunderstorm development unlikely in most areas. No severe threat is forecast to develop over the continental U.S. through early next week.
..Broyles.. 01/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, January 17
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, January 15 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, January 16 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, January 17 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, January 18 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, January 19 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120954 SPC AC 120954
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
A persistent large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to remain over the east-central U.S. during the Day 4 to 8 period. This pattern will be favorable for repeated cold air intrusions into the continental U.S late this week into early next week. As a result, cool and dry conditions are expected to remain in place over much of the nation, making thunderstorm development unlikely in most areas. No severe threat is forecast to develop over the continental U.S. through early next week.
..Broyles.. 01/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, January 18
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, January 15 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, January 16 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, January 17 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, January 18 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, January 19 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120954 SPC AC 120954
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
A persistent large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to remain over the east-central U.S. during the Day 4 to 8 period. This pattern will be favorable for repeated cold air intrusions into the continental U.S late this week into early next week. As a result, cool and dry conditions are expected to remain in place over much of the nation, making thunderstorm development unlikely in most areas. No severe threat is forecast to develop over the continental U.S. through early next week.
..Broyles.. 01/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, January 19
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, January 15 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, January 16 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, January 17 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, January 18 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, January 19 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120954 SPC AC 120954
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
A persistent large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to remain over the east-central U.S. during the Day 4 to 8 period. This pattern will be favorable for repeated cold air intrusions into the continental U.S late this week into early next week. As a result, cool and dry conditions are expected to remain in place over much of the nation, making thunderstorm development unlikely in most areas. No severe threat is forecast to develop over the continental U.S. through early next week.
..Broyles.. 01/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, January 12
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, January 13
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Wednesday, January 14
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Thursday, January 15
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, January 16
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, January 17
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, January 18
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, January 19
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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