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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Tuesday, June 9

Outlook Summary

Numerous severe thunderstorms with a potential for 60 to 80 mph winds with locally higher gusts, along with tornadoes (some potentially strong), and large to very large hail are expected to develop in parts of the central and northern Plains from this afternoon into tonight. Severe wind gusts and hail will also be possible from north-central and west-central Kansas southwestward into the Texas Panhandle.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 090554

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Numerous severe thunderstorms with a potential for 60 to 80 mph winds with locally higher gusts, along with tornadoes (some potentially strong), and large to very large hail are expected to develop in parts of the central and northern Plains from this afternoon into tonight. Severe wind gusts and hail will also be possible from north-central and west-central Kansas southwestward into the Texas Panhandle.

Central and Northern Plains

An upper-level trough will move eastward across the western U.S. today. Ahead of the system, mid-level heights will fall over the central and northern Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place over the Great Plains, with a dryline located from far western North Dakota southward into western Nebraska. To the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s F. As surface temperatures warm today, an axis of moderate instability is expected to develop over the central Dakotas. Thunderstorms will form near and to the east of the dryline in the mid afternoon. Strong low-level convergence near the instability axis will result in a relatively rapid transition to linear mode with a large MCS expected to develop during the late afternoon and early evening. The severe MCS will move eastward across the central and eastern Dakotas, with the southern part of the line located in central Nebraska.

Late afternoon RAP forecast soundings in the central Dakotas near the instability axis have MLCAPE in the 4000 to 5000 J/kg range with 0-6 km shear between 30 to 40 knots. Low to mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be in the 7 to 8 C/km range. This will be very favorable for large hail and severe wind gusts. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter and wind gusts above 80 mph will be possible with supercells early, and along the more intense parts of the line as it develops.

Concerning the tornado threat, a mid-level jet will become juxtaposed with a low-level jet in the late afternoon across central and northern North Dakota. Storms that can remain discrete for a few hours after initiation will have potential to become supercells and produce tornadoes. The strongest low-level shear is forecast in northeastern North Dakota, where RAP forecast soundings increase 0-3 km storm-relative helicity into the 250 to 300 m2/s2 range by early evening. This will be favorable for a few strong tornadoes. Further south from central South Dakota into Nebraska, there will be potential for supercells with tornadoes near gaps in the line. The threat for strong tornadoes may be greatest in the early to mid evening as the line interacts with a 45 to 55 knot low-level jet from far southeastern South Dakota southward into eastern Nebraska.

From late evening into the early overnight period, the severe threat associated with the severe MCS is expected to gradually downtrend as it moves into the upper Mississippi Valley.

North-central and Western Kansas/Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles

At mid-levels today, heights will fall within southwesterly flow over the southern and central High Plains. At the surface, a moist and unstable airmass will be located over much of the region. By afternoon, a focused zone of maximized low-level convergence is forecast to develop. This axis will move eastward toward the western edge of the stronger instability, with thunderstorms forming in the mid to late afternoon. Near the axis, MLCAPE is forecast to be around 2000 J/kg with 0-3 km lapse rates near 8 C/km. In addition, surface temperature-dewpoint spreads will be large, which will be favorable for severe wind gusts in the late afternoon and early evening.

Upper Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys

A mid-level ridge will move eastward toward the upper Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys today. Ahead of the ridge, moderate instability will be in place by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms that form within this moist and unstable airmass will have potential for isolated severe gusts, mainly as low-level lapse rates become steep in the afternoon.

..Broyles/Thornton.. 06/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, June 10

Outlook Summary

Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms capable of large hail in excess of two inches in diameter, a few strong tornadoes, and damaging winds with gusts in excess of 75 mph appear likely across portions of the upper Mississippi Valley and Midwest Wednesday afternoon into night. More sporadic occurrences of large hail and damaging winds are possible into the central and southern Plains, and from the lower Great Lakes toward the Mid-Atlantic coast.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 090540

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN MINNESOTA…MUCH OF WISCONSIN…CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA…AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS

### SUMMARY

Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms capable of large hail in excess of two inches in diameter, a few strong tornadoes, and damaging winds with gusts in excess of 75 mph appear likely across portions of the upper Mississippi Valley and Midwest Wednesday afternoon into night. More sporadic occurrences of large hail and damaging winds are possible into the central and southern Plains, and from the lower Great Lakes toward the Mid-Atlantic coast.

Synopsis

An upper low along the MT-SK border Wednesday morning is forecast to deepen while redeveloping to along the ND-MB border Wednesday night. That intensification process will be driven by mid/upper-level jet streaks moving through the base of broader-scale trough, in tandem with an amplifying short-wave trough. A lead disturbance initially over the northern High Plains Wednesday morning will accelerate northeast into the Upper MS Valley by evening, along with the leading edge of stronger mid/upper-level jet streak winds.

At the surface, an area of low pressure over eastern SD Wednesday morning will develop north-northeast into southeast MB by evening, while a trailing cold front advances through the upper MS Valley into the upper Great Lakes. The trailing extension of the boundary from the mid MO Valley into KS will move more slowly through the day before stalling and then lifting north Wednesday night in response to cyclogenesis over the central Plains. A dryline will intersect the front over southwest KS Wednesday afternoon, with that feature extending southwest into western TX.

### Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes into the Central and Southern Plains

Areas of thunderstorms may be ongoing Wednesday morning across portions of MN and WI, aided by warm advection along a nocturnal low-level jet. Residual convective outflow boundaries from the early-day storms and the approaching cold front are expected to focus the most intense thunderstorm development, which may occur by early afternoon across northern and central parts of MN. Subsequent south/southwestward storm development is expected by mid/late afternoon along and ahead of the front from southern MN and western WI through central/eastern IA, northern MO, into eastern/southern KS, and perhaps into western OK and northwest TX.

Rich boundary-layer moisture, characterized by dewpoints in the upper 60s to low/mid 70s will coincide with a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates to yield moderate to strong afternoon instability with MLCAPE increasing to 2000-4000+ J/kg across the warm sector. Deep-layer shear will strengthen through the afternoon into evening with the arrival of the jet streaks, especially across the upper MS Valley into upper Great Lakes where effective bulk shear magnitudes of 50-60 kt are forecast.

The expected CAPE-shear combination will support numerous severe storms that begin as supercells capable of large to very large hail and some tornado threat, with an eventual transition to a more of a cold-pool-driven convective system with embedded bowing structures by evening across portions of the Upper Midwest, potentially into Great Lakes. Damaging wind potential, including the possibility for 75+ mph wind gusts would likewise increase with that mode transition, as would a continued tornado threat with line-embedded meso-vortices. The greatest potential for a few strong tornadoes is expected to develop with any sustained supercells across portions of eastern MN, WI, eastern IA, and northwest IL in the proximity of a strengthening low-level jet, which will enhance near-ground shear.

Storms are expected to be increasingly more isolated in nature with southwestward extent along the front and dryline from eastern KS into western OK and northwest TX. Nonetheless, the degree of instability coupled with around 30 kt of deep-layer shear will favor organized multicell and/or supercell structures capable of large hail during the afternoon and evening hours.

A separate large-hail threat is expected to develop Wednesday night into Thursday morning over the mid MO Valley within a zone of strong warm advection and moisture flux occurring within the terminus of a 50+ kt low-level jet.

### Lower Great Lakes to Mid-Atlantic Coast

Forcing for ascent associated with a weak mid-level disturbance moving through the region is expected to foster widely scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon amidst a moist and moderately unstable air mass. Model soundings indicate some enhancement of the mid-level wind field, with deep-layer shear increasing to around 30 kt in some areas. As such, a few severe storms appear possible with an associated risk for damaging wind gusts and large hail.

..Mead.. 06/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Thursday, June 11

Outlook Summary

Scattered to numerous severe storms capable of potentially strong tornadoes, large hail, and destructive winds appear likely from portions of the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys into the upper Great Lakes. More sporadic occurrences of damaging wind and large hail are possible across the southern Plains, upper Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes toward the Mid-Atlantic Coast.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 090726

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST MISSOURI THROUGH EASTERN IOWA…NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN

### SUMMARY

Scattered to numerous severe storms capable of potentially strong tornadoes, large hail, and destructive winds appear likely from portions of the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys into the upper Great Lakes. More sporadic occurrences of damaging wind and large hail are possible across the southern Plains, upper Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes toward the Mid-Atlantic Coast.

Synopsis

A potent short-wave trough initially over the central High Plains Thursday morning is forecast to accelerate through the upper Great Lakes with a trailing perturbation moving through the central Plains into mid MS Valley Thursday night. Both disturbances will be located on the cyclonic aside of an unseasonably strong mid-level jet with 500-mb wind speeds approaching 70-80 kt. The 00z models have slowed the progression of the mid-level wave, as well as the associated surface low, which is forecast to develop from northeast KS along the synoptic front or remnant outflow from overnight storms into southern WI by afternoon and northern lower MI or the UP by Thursday night.

### Lower Missouri Valley/Mid Mississippi Valley into the Upper Great Lakes

A very moist boundary layer will combine with steep mid-level lapse rates to yield a moderate to strongly unstable air mass by afternoon to the south of the composite surface boundary. A cluster of mainly elevated thunderstorms is expected to be ongoing Thursday morning across portions of the mid MO Valley, to the northeast of the surface low. Those storms are expected to become progressively more surface-based and intense by mid to late morning into afternoon while rapidly moving northeast, coincident with the surface low. Forecast sounding within the inflow environment of those storms indicate strong low-level and deep-layer shear, supportive of supercells and bowing segments capable of potentially strong tornadoes, in addition to large hail and damaging winds.

Additional severe storms are expected to develop along the trailing front from the lower MO and mid MS Valleys southwest through the Ozarks into southern Plains. The progressive nature of the mid-level system suggests the potential for long-tracked supercells and bowing structures capable of tornadoes and swaths of destructive winds.

### Upper Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic Coast

While large-scale forcing for ascent is expected to remain relatively weak, model guidance indicates scattered, afternoon storm development from the lee of the lower Great Lakes through the central Appalachians to the vicinity of a lee trough in the Mid-Atlantic. Vertical shear is expected to remain relatively weak; however, the presence of a moist and moderately unstable air mass will support wet microburst activity and an associated risk for sporadic damaging winds.

..Mead.. 06/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Friday, June 12

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090838 SPC AC 090838

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Friday

The last several deterministic model runs have consistently shown the progression of a short-wave trough and associated 50 kt jet streak from the OH Valley into the St. Lawrence Valley, with meaningful height falls as far south as the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, the northern portion of a cold front initially from southwest Ontario to near the confluence of the MS and OH Rivers and into the southern Plains will progress southeast and eventually merge with a trough stretching from southern New England to the Carolina Piedmont. Ahead of the front, boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s to low/mid 70s will combine with modestly steep mid-level lapse rates, especially across the lower Great lakes, to yield a moderately unstable air mass by afternoon. Initial storms are anticipated across the lower Great Lakes into upper OH Valley by early afternoon, with activity advancing east toward the Hudson Valley, and southeast into the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic through the remainder of the afternoon into evening. The strongest vertical shear is forecast from the lower OH Valley to the lee of the lower Great Lakes, where organized storm modes capable of damaging winds and large hail appear most probable.

Elsewhere, a more isolated severe-weather threat may materialize within a low-level upslope regime in eastern NM.

### Day 5/Saturday

The models are in generally good agreement in depicting a mid/upper-level low over Ontario, and a positively tilted trough from the northern Plains into the northern Rockies. A belt of enhanced, westerly winds in the mid levels will reside to the south of those features, from the northern and central Plains through the Great Lakes. At the surface, the various ensemble members consistently show the clustering of low centers over the central High Plains with an associated surface front extending into the upper Great Lakes.

Moderate to strong instability is forecast ahead of the surface front from the central Plains into upper Great Lakes with more than sufficient deep-layer to support higher-order storm modes. Highest confidence in storm development Saturday afternoon and evening is across the central Plains into mid/lower MO Valley from the vicinity of the surface low northeast along the surface front.

Other more isolated severe storms appear possible along a weakening front in the Carolinas.

### Day 6/Sunday

The ensemble mean solutions depict lowering mid-level heights from the central Plains into Great Lakes and OH Valley, in conjunction with the gradual amplification of a long-wave trough located east of the North American Rockies. More specifically, a number of the deterministic models suggest a short-wave trough moving from the northern into central Rockies, with another potentially more intense mid-level system moving through the Northeast. An associated surface front preceding both features may serve as the focus for some severe-weather threat from the Northeast through the OH Valley into the Southern Plains. However, there is considerable uncertainty in finer-scale details, so no area will be highlighted.

### Days 7-8/Monday and Tuesday

Further amplification of the long-wave trough is forecast with an associated belt of mid-level flow extending from the central Plains through the mid MS Valley into New England and the Mid-Atlantic. Despite growing spread across the deterministic models, there is a modest signal that the Day 6/Sunday central Rockies short-wave trough will progress through the central Plains into mid MS Valley. Some severe-weather threat could develop ahead of that disturbance in the vicinity of the surface frontal system, should that scenario unfold as advertised.

..Mead.. 06/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, June 13

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090838 SPC AC 090838

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Friday

The last several deterministic model runs have consistently shown the progression of a short-wave trough and associated 50 kt jet streak from the OH Valley into the St. Lawrence Valley, with meaningful height falls as far south as the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, the northern portion of a cold front initially from southwest Ontario to near the confluence of the MS and OH Rivers and into the southern Plains will progress southeast and eventually merge with a trough stretching from southern New England to the Carolina Piedmont. Ahead of the front, boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s to low/mid 70s will combine with modestly steep mid-level lapse rates, especially across the lower Great lakes, to yield a moderately unstable air mass by afternoon. Initial storms are anticipated across the lower Great Lakes into upper OH Valley by early afternoon, with activity advancing east toward the Hudson Valley, and southeast into the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic through the remainder of the afternoon into evening. The strongest vertical shear is forecast from the lower OH Valley to the lee of the lower Great Lakes, where organized storm modes capable of damaging winds and large hail appear most probable.

Elsewhere, a more isolated severe-weather threat may materialize within a low-level upslope regime in eastern NM.

### Day 5/Saturday

The models are in generally good agreement in depicting a mid/upper-level low over Ontario, and a positively tilted trough from the northern Plains into the northern Rockies. A belt of enhanced, westerly winds in the mid levels will reside to the south of those features, from the northern and central Plains through the Great Lakes. At the surface, the various ensemble members consistently show the clustering of low centers over the central High Plains with an associated surface front extending into the upper Great Lakes.

Moderate to strong instability is forecast ahead of the surface front from the central Plains into upper Great Lakes with more than sufficient deep-layer to support higher-order storm modes. Highest confidence in storm development Saturday afternoon and evening is across the central Plains into mid/lower MO Valley from the vicinity of the surface low northeast along the surface front.

Other more isolated severe storms appear possible along a weakening front in the Carolinas.

### Day 6/Sunday

The ensemble mean solutions depict lowering mid-level heights from the central Plains into Great Lakes and OH Valley, in conjunction with the gradual amplification of a long-wave trough located east of the North American Rockies. More specifically, a number of the deterministic models suggest a short-wave trough moving from the northern into central Rockies, with another potentially more intense mid-level system moving through the Northeast. An associated surface front preceding both features may serve as the focus for some severe-weather threat from the Northeast through the OH Valley into the Southern Plains. However, there is considerable uncertainty in finer-scale details, so no area will be highlighted.

### Days 7-8/Monday and Tuesday

Further amplification of the long-wave trough is forecast with an associated belt of mid-level flow extending from the central Plains through the mid MS Valley into New England and the Mid-Atlantic. Despite growing spread across the deterministic models, there is a modest signal that the Day 6/Sunday central Rockies short-wave trough will progress through the central Plains into mid MS Valley. Some severe-weather threat could develop ahead of that disturbance in the vicinity of the surface frontal system, should that scenario unfold as advertised.

..Mead.. 06/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, June 14

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090838 SPC AC 090838

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Friday

The last several deterministic model runs have consistently shown the progression of a short-wave trough and associated 50 kt jet streak from the OH Valley into the St. Lawrence Valley, with meaningful height falls as far south as the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, the northern portion of a cold front initially from southwest Ontario to near the confluence of the MS and OH Rivers and into the southern Plains will progress southeast and eventually merge with a trough stretching from southern New England to the Carolina Piedmont. Ahead of the front, boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s to low/mid 70s will combine with modestly steep mid-level lapse rates, especially across the lower Great lakes, to yield a moderately unstable air mass by afternoon. Initial storms are anticipated across the lower Great Lakes into upper OH Valley by early afternoon, with activity advancing east toward the Hudson Valley, and southeast into the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic through the remainder of the afternoon into evening. The strongest vertical shear is forecast from the lower OH Valley to the lee of the lower Great Lakes, where organized storm modes capable of damaging winds and large hail appear most probable.

Elsewhere, a more isolated severe-weather threat may materialize within a low-level upslope regime in eastern NM.

### Day 5/Saturday

The models are in generally good agreement in depicting a mid/upper-level low over Ontario, and a positively tilted trough from the northern Plains into the northern Rockies. A belt of enhanced, westerly winds in the mid levels will reside to the south of those features, from the northern and central Plains through the Great Lakes. At the surface, the various ensemble members consistently show the clustering of low centers over the central High Plains with an associated surface front extending into the upper Great Lakes.

Moderate to strong instability is forecast ahead of the surface front from the central Plains into upper Great Lakes with more than sufficient deep-layer to support higher-order storm modes. Highest confidence in storm development Saturday afternoon and evening is across the central Plains into mid/lower MO Valley from the vicinity of the surface low northeast along the surface front.

Other more isolated severe storms appear possible along a weakening front in the Carolinas.

### Day 6/Sunday

The ensemble mean solutions depict lowering mid-level heights from the central Plains into Great Lakes and OH Valley, in conjunction with the gradual amplification of a long-wave trough located east of the North American Rockies. More specifically, a number of the deterministic models suggest a short-wave trough moving from the northern into central Rockies, with another potentially more intense mid-level system moving through the Northeast. An associated surface front preceding both features may serve as the focus for some severe-weather threat from the Northeast through the OH Valley into the Southern Plains. However, there is considerable uncertainty in finer-scale details, so no area will be highlighted.

### Days 7-8/Monday and Tuesday

Further amplification of the long-wave trough is forecast with an associated belt of mid-level flow extending from the central Plains through the mid MS Valley into New England and the Mid-Atlantic. Despite growing spread across the deterministic models, there is a modest signal that the Day 6/Sunday central Rockies short-wave trough will progress through the central Plains into mid MS Valley. Some severe-weather threat could develop ahead of that disturbance in the vicinity of the surface frontal system, should that scenario unfold as advertised.

..Mead.. 06/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, June 15

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090838 SPC AC 090838

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Friday

The last several deterministic model runs have consistently shown the progression of a short-wave trough and associated 50 kt jet streak from the OH Valley into the St. Lawrence Valley, with meaningful height falls as far south as the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, the northern portion of a cold front initially from southwest Ontario to near the confluence of the MS and OH Rivers and into the southern Plains will progress southeast and eventually merge with a trough stretching from southern New England to the Carolina Piedmont. Ahead of the front, boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s to low/mid 70s will combine with modestly steep mid-level lapse rates, especially across the lower Great lakes, to yield a moderately unstable air mass by afternoon. Initial storms are anticipated across the lower Great Lakes into upper OH Valley by early afternoon, with activity advancing east toward the Hudson Valley, and southeast into the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic through the remainder of the afternoon into evening. The strongest vertical shear is forecast from the lower OH Valley to the lee of the lower Great Lakes, where organized storm modes capable of damaging winds and large hail appear most probable.

Elsewhere, a more isolated severe-weather threat may materialize within a low-level upslope regime in eastern NM.

### Day 5/Saturday

The models are in generally good agreement in depicting a mid/upper-level low over Ontario, and a positively tilted trough from the northern Plains into the northern Rockies. A belt of enhanced, westerly winds in the mid levels will reside to the south of those features, from the northern and central Plains through the Great Lakes. At the surface, the various ensemble members consistently show the clustering of low centers over the central High Plains with an associated surface front extending into the upper Great Lakes.

Moderate to strong instability is forecast ahead of the surface front from the central Plains into upper Great Lakes with more than sufficient deep-layer to support higher-order storm modes. Highest confidence in storm development Saturday afternoon and evening is across the central Plains into mid/lower MO Valley from the vicinity of the surface low northeast along the surface front.

Other more isolated severe storms appear possible along a weakening front in the Carolinas.

### Day 6/Sunday

The ensemble mean solutions depict lowering mid-level heights from the central Plains into Great Lakes and OH Valley, in conjunction with the gradual amplification of a long-wave trough located east of the North American Rockies. More specifically, a number of the deterministic models suggest a short-wave trough moving from the northern into central Rockies, with another potentially more intense mid-level system moving through the Northeast. An associated surface front preceding both features may serve as the focus for some severe-weather threat from the Northeast through the OH Valley into the Southern Plains. However, there is considerable uncertainty in finer-scale details, so no area will be highlighted.

### Days 7-8/Monday and Tuesday

Further amplification of the long-wave trough is forecast with an associated belt of mid-level flow extending from the central Plains through the mid MS Valley into New England and the Mid-Atlantic. Despite growing spread across the deterministic models, there is a modest signal that the Day 6/Sunday central Rockies short-wave trough will progress through the central Plains into mid MS Valley. Some severe-weather threat could develop ahead of that disturbance in the vicinity of the surface frontal system, should that scenario unfold as advertised.

..Mead.. 06/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, June 16

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090838 SPC AC 090838

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Friday

The last several deterministic model runs have consistently shown the progression of a short-wave trough and associated 50 kt jet streak from the OH Valley into the St. Lawrence Valley, with meaningful height falls as far south as the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, the northern portion of a cold front initially from southwest Ontario to near the confluence of the MS and OH Rivers and into the southern Plains will progress southeast and eventually merge with a trough stretching from southern New England to the Carolina Piedmont. Ahead of the front, boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s to low/mid 70s will combine with modestly steep mid-level lapse rates, especially across the lower Great lakes, to yield a moderately unstable air mass by afternoon. Initial storms are anticipated across the lower Great Lakes into upper OH Valley by early afternoon, with activity advancing east toward the Hudson Valley, and southeast into the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic through the remainder of the afternoon into evening. The strongest vertical shear is forecast from the lower OH Valley to the lee of the lower Great Lakes, where organized storm modes capable of damaging winds and large hail appear most probable.

Elsewhere, a more isolated severe-weather threat may materialize within a low-level upslope regime in eastern NM.

### Day 5/Saturday

The models are in generally good agreement in depicting a mid/upper-level low over Ontario, and a positively tilted trough from the northern Plains into the northern Rockies. A belt of enhanced, westerly winds in the mid levels will reside to the south of those features, from the northern and central Plains through the Great Lakes. At the surface, the various ensemble members consistently show the clustering of low centers over the central High Plains with an associated surface front extending into the upper Great Lakes.

Moderate to strong instability is forecast ahead of the surface front from the central Plains into upper Great Lakes with more than sufficient deep-layer to support higher-order storm modes. Highest confidence in storm development Saturday afternoon and evening is across the central Plains into mid/lower MO Valley from the vicinity of the surface low northeast along the surface front.

Other more isolated severe storms appear possible along a weakening front in the Carolinas.

### Day 6/Sunday

The ensemble mean solutions depict lowering mid-level heights from the central Plains into Great Lakes and OH Valley, in conjunction with the gradual amplification of a long-wave trough located east of the North American Rockies. More specifically, a number of the deterministic models suggest a short-wave trough moving from the northern into central Rockies, with another potentially more intense mid-level system moving through the Northeast. An associated surface front preceding both features may serve as the focus for some severe-weather threat from the Northeast through the OH Valley into the Southern Plains. However, there is considerable uncertainty in finer-scale details, so no area will be highlighted.

### Days 7-8/Monday and Tuesday

Further amplification of the long-wave trough is forecast with an associated belt of mid-level flow extending from the central Plains through the mid MS Valley into New England and the Mid-Atlantic. Despite growing spread across the deterministic models, there is a modest signal that the Day 6/Sunday central Rockies short-wave trough will progress through the central Plains into mid MS Valley. Some severe-weather threat could develop ahead of that disturbance in the vicinity of the surface frontal system, should that scenario unfold as advertised.

..Mead.. 06/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Tuesday, June 9

TORNADO: 10%

HAIL: 30%

WIND: 45%

Wednesday, June 10

TORNADO: 10%

HAIL: 30%

WIND: 30%

Thursday, June 11

ANY SEVERE: 30%

Friday, June 12

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Saturday, June 13

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Sunday, June 14

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Monday, June 15

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Tuesday, June 16

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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