Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Monday, April 27

Outlook Summary

Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected from the mid Mississippi/lower Ohio Valleys into the Mid-South through this evening, with a threat for multiple strong to intense tornadoes (EF-3+), widespread severe/damaging wind gusts, and scattered large to very large hail.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 271245

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Valid 271300Z - 281200Z

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MISSOURI INTO ILLINOIS

### SUMMARY

Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected from the mid Mississippi/lower Ohio Valleys into the Mid-South through this evening, with a threat for multiple strong to intense tornadoes (EF-3+), widespread severe/damaging wind gusts, and scattered large to very large hail.

Mid Mississippi Valley/Midwest into the Mid-South/Lower Mississippi Valley

An active severe weather day is forecast for much of the mid MS Valley/lower OH Valleys into the Mid-South. Ongoing thunderstorms this morning complicate the overall scenario to some extent, but a very favorable corridor for intense supercells and strong tornadoes is apparent this afternoon/evening across parts of MO into IL, where a Moderate Risk (Level 4 of 5) has been introduced.

Elevated supercells with mainly a hail threat should persist for at least a couple more hours this morning across the mid MS Valley as strong low-level warm advection aids in continued influx of sufficient MUCAPE amid strong deep-layer shear. Multiple clusters/embedded supercells are also ongoing this morning across western into northern MO. This activity should pose a greater threat for scattered severe/damaging winds, along with some hail risk. The tornado threat in the short term (this morning) remains unclear, but it should eventually increase as the boundary-layer across central MO continues to gradually destabilize/moisten. See Mesoscale Discussion 565 for more details on the near-term severe risk with these ongoing thunderstorms.

Current expectations are for the greatest severe risk to focus south of these morning thunderstorms. A mid/upper-level trough will eject northeastward from the northern/central Plains into the Midwest and mid MS Valley through the period. Low-level mass response will encourage the primary surface low to consolidate across MN/WI by this evening, with an effective warm front delineated by the morning convection. Aided by daytime heating and steep mid-level lapse rates, a moderately to strongly unstable airmass is expected to be in place by early to mid afternoon across much of central MO/southern IL southward into the Mid-South and lower MS Valley.

Strengthening west-southwesterly flow aloft associated with a 50-70 kt mid-level jet will overspread much of the warm sector by peak heating, and a 35-45 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet will both provide ample low-level and deep-layer shear to support supercells. Initially discrete surface-based development appears likely to occur by 19-21Z across the mid MS Valley/Mid-South ahead of the surface cold front, and perhaps along weak low-level confluence zones in the open warm sector.

These supercells will exist in a very favorable environment for tornadoes through the afternoon and evening, and multiple strong to intense tornadoes (EF-2/3+) appear likely, especially from parts of MO into IL along/near the effective front. This strong tornado threat may also extend farther south into AR/TN, but confidence is somewhat lower with southward extent due to weaker large-scale forcing. Large to very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) may also occur with any sustained supercells.

By early evening, convection will probably tend to consolidate into clusters capable of producing numerous to widespread damaging winds from the mid MS Valley eastward into the lower OH Valley, before eventually weakening tonight as instability gradually decreases. A threat for QLCS and embedded supercell tornadoes will persist through much of the evening and early overnight hours as well given strong low-level shear forecast.

To the north of the ongoing morning convection across IA/northern IL/WI, a lesser (but non-zero) severe risk is forecast. This region will have less instability this afternoon, but strong shear. Have maintained the Marginal/Slight Risks for the possibility of isolated to locally scattered hail/damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes.

ArkLaTex into Texas

Confidence in sustained convection occurring from the ArkLaTex southward into TX is lower compared to locations farther north. But, strong heating ahead of a surface dryline could support isolated to scattered supercells capable of producing large to very large hail and occasional damaging winds. Increasing low-level warm/moist advection tonight could foster additional robust thunderstorms along the retreating dryline and eventually the southward-moving cold front. Severe probabilities have been expanded across these regions to account for this potential.

..Gleason/Thornton.. 04/27/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, April 28

Outlook Summary

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development is probable across parts of the southeastern Great Plains through the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys Tuesday afternoon and evening. The evolution of a long-lived organized cluster accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts appears possible.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 270531

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN A CORRIDOR ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GREAT PLAINS THROUGH LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS

### SUMMARY

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development is probable across parts of the southeastern Great Plains through the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys Tuesday afternoon and evening. The evolution of a long-lived organized cluster accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts appears possible.

Discussion

Latest model output still indicates that the center of a fairly broad surface cyclone may undergo further deepening while migrating northeast of the upper Great Lakes region during this period, particularly as it reaches the southeastern Hudson Bay vicinity, near the southeastern periphery of an evolving mid-level low. Surrounding this low, it appears that larger-scale mid-level troughing, encompassing much of interior North America to the east of the northern Rockies, may make slow further progress toward the northern/mid Atlantic Seaboard, while perhaps undergoing some amplification along an axis southward through the upper and middle Mississippi Valley by late Tuesday night. This may support modest surface wave development along a stalling cold front across the southeastern Great Plains through lower Ohio Valley, and contribute to suppression of mid-level ridging across northern portions of the eastern Gulf Coast states.

Otherwise, mid-level ridging to the north of a prominent subtropical high, still centered over southern Mexico, is likely to build across the southern Rockies and adjacent Great Plains, downstream of a low over the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific. Only a slow eastward progression of this low is forecast, to the south of mid/upper ridging building northeastward into British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest.

Southeastern Great Plains into Tennessee Valley

There is continuing spread within the latest model output, but a consensus of guidance suggests that pre-cold frontal outflow, generated by convection today through tonight, will remain a notable feature into and through this period. It appears that the leading edge of this air mass may curve from parts of the southern Appalachians/Tennessee Valley toward the Ark-La-Tex at 12Z Tuesday. The extent to which this advances southward through the eastern Gulf Coast states on its eastern flank, while retreating northeastward through the lower Mississippi Valley on its western flank, remains unclear. However, it seems probable that it will become a focus for intensifying thunderstorm development by late Tuesday afternoon in response to boundary-layer destabilization along and to its south, and forcing for ascent aided by low-level warm advection.

At the same time, a corridor of stronger pre-frontal surface heating across parts of northeastern Texas through north central Arkansas may become the focus for stronger convective development, in the presence of larger CAPE supported by steeper mid-level lapse rates. More strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air may continue to inhibit more than isolated thunderstorm initiation farther to southwest, along the dryline across central Texas into areas near/south of Del Rio TX.

Strengthening shear with the approach of digging mid-level troughing on the southern fringe of the westerlies is likely provide support for a few supercells across the southeastern Great Plains, and upscale growing and organizing clusters propagating into the lower Mississippi Valley. There appears a consensus within the model output that the intersection of this activity with the preceding outflow boundary may ultimately provide the focus for the most prominent evolving cluster, which may pose a risk for widespread strong to severe gusts across parts of Arkansas through the lower Mississippi Valley by late Tuesday evening.

Too many uncertainties exist to upgrade the categorical severe threat at this time, but this remains possible in later outlooks for this period.

..Kerr.. 04/27/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, April 29

Outlook Summary

Strong storms could impact parts of the Allegheny Plateau into Mid Atlantic, as well as portions of the northwestern through north central Gulf Coast, Wednesday afternoon and evening, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 270730

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU INTO MID ATLANTIC AND ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST

### SUMMARY

Strong storms could impact parts of the Allegheny Plateau into Mid Atlantic, as well as portions of the northwestern through north central Gulf Coast, Wednesday afternoon and evening, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather.

Discussion

Models indicate that mid-level ridging will continue to build inland across the Canadian Rockies/Pacific Northwest through this period, but it appears that attempts at a developing embedded high near the Pacific Northwest coast will become suppressed by a short wave impulse within the westerlies approaching the British Columbia coast. Farther south, a mid-level low merging into a belt of westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific may accelerate toward southern California/northern Baja coastal areas, but models vary concerning whether this will accelerate inland prior to 12Z Thursday.

A downstream subtropical high, initially centered over southern Mexico, may undergo at least some further southwestward suppression, but it still may maintain considerable influence as far north as the northwestern Gulf coast Wednesday through Wednesday night. At the same time, in higher latitudes, large-scale troughing encompassing much of north central and northeastern North America is forecast to continue slowly digging toward the northern/mid Atlantic Seaboard. A broad embedded cyclonic mid-level circulation may begin to form near/north of the Great Lakes region.

The confluent mid-level regime across and east of the Rockies will likely support southeastward development of cool surface ridging across much of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley, in the wake of a southeastward advancing cold front. Models generally suggest that a modest surface low evolving along this front will migrate from the lower Ohio Valley northeastward through the lower Great Lakes region, with a modest secondary surface low forming along a developing warm front to the east of the Blue Ridge by late Wednesday afternoon into evening.

Gulf Coast vicinity

It remains uncertain the extent to which pre-frontal convective outflow may impact subsequent destabilization across the north central Gulf Coast region, and perhaps beneath the stronger mid-level ridging into the Texas coastal plain and Rio Grande Valley. However, guidance suggests that a seasonably moist boundary-layer may contribute to moderately large CAPE with sufficient insolation, beneath at least modest west-northwesterly mid-level flow. This environment might become conducive to at least widely scattered storms with potential to produce severe hail and wind. It is still possible that categorical and severe probabilties could be increased further in later outlooks for this period.

Allegheny Plateau into Mid Atlantic

The influence of potentially widespread remnant early period convective precipitation on subsequent destabilization through the day Wednesday remain unclear. However, as a fairly significant short wave perturbation overspreads the region late Wednesday afternoon and evening, the cold front approaching the Allegheny Mountains, surface troughing and the developing low/warm front to the east of the Blue Ridge could become the focus for strong to severe thunderstorm with sufficient destabilization in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. It is still possible that categorical and severe probabilities could be increased further in later outlooks for this period.

..Kerr.. 04/27/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Thursday, April 30

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270843 SPC AC 270843

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Valid 301200Z - 051200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range guidance continues to indicate that the prevailing split flow will evolve in a manner that maintains a broadly confluent regime across and east of the Rockies through this period. Within the northern branch, it appears that a fairly significant low will form within broad troughing overspreading the Northeast by early next weekend, perhaps trailed by another developing low across parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes by early next week. At the same time, an initially prominent subtropical high centered over southern Mexico is forecast to become suppressed, as a mid/upper low emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific is forced eastward into and through the confluent regime across the southern tier of the United States.

It still appears that the shearing subtropical impulse, and perhaps a trailing perturbation, will be preceded by broad cool surface ridging overspreading much of the central and eastern U.S., as far south as the Gulf Coast region by Thursday. The frontal zone on the leading edge of this air mass is generally forecast to progress into the Gulf Basin and Florida Peninsula, where it is likely to linger through early next week. While forcing for ascent and destabilization might support increasing thunderstorm development across parts of central and southern Texas late this work week (mostly above/to the cool side of the stalling frontal zone) into Florida and adjacent portions of the Southeast by late next weekend, the risk for severe weather still appears relatively minor at this time.

..Kerr.. 04/27/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Friday, May 1

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270843 SPC AC 270843

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Valid 301200Z - 051200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range guidance continues to indicate that the prevailing split flow will evolve in a manner that maintains a broadly confluent regime across and east of the Rockies through this period. Within the northern branch, it appears that a fairly significant low will form within broad troughing overspreading the Northeast by early next weekend, perhaps trailed by another developing low across parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes by early next week. At the same time, an initially prominent subtropical high centered over southern Mexico is forecast to become suppressed, as a mid/upper low emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific is forced eastward into and through the confluent regime across the southern tier of the United States.

It still appears that the shearing subtropical impulse, and perhaps a trailing perturbation, will be preceded by broad cool surface ridging overspreading much of the central and eastern U.S., as far south as the Gulf Coast region by Thursday. The frontal zone on the leading edge of this air mass is generally forecast to progress into the Gulf Basin and Florida Peninsula, where it is likely to linger through early next week. While forcing for ascent and destabilization might support increasing thunderstorm development across parts of central and southern Texas late this work week (mostly above/to the cool side of the stalling frontal zone) into Florida and adjacent portions of the Southeast by late next weekend, the risk for severe weather still appears relatively minor at this time.

..Kerr.. 04/27/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, May 2

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270843 SPC AC 270843

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Valid 301200Z - 051200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range guidance continues to indicate that the prevailing split flow will evolve in a manner that maintains a broadly confluent regime across and east of the Rockies through this period. Within the northern branch, it appears that a fairly significant low will form within broad troughing overspreading the Northeast by early next weekend, perhaps trailed by another developing low across parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes by early next week. At the same time, an initially prominent subtropical high centered over southern Mexico is forecast to become suppressed, as a mid/upper low emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific is forced eastward into and through the confluent regime across the southern tier of the United States.

It still appears that the shearing subtropical impulse, and perhaps a trailing perturbation, will be preceded by broad cool surface ridging overspreading much of the central and eastern U.S., as far south as the Gulf Coast region by Thursday. The frontal zone on the leading edge of this air mass is generally forecast to progress into the Gulf Basin and Florida Peninsula, where it is likely to linger through early next week. While forcing for ascent and destabilization might support increasing thunderstorm development across parts of central and southern Texas late this work week (mostly above/to the cool side of the stalling frontal zone) into Florida and adjacent portions of the Southeast by late next weekend, the risk for severe weather still appears relatively minor at this time.

..Kerr.. 04/27/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, May 3

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270843 SPC AC 270843

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Valid 301200Z - 051200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range guidance continues to indicate that the prevailing split flow will evolve in a manner that maintains a broadly confluent regime across and east of the Rockies through this period. Within the northern branch, it appears that a fairly significant low will form within broad troughing overspreading the Northeast by early next weekend, perhaps trailed by another developing low across parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes by early next week. At the same time, an initially prominent subtropical high centered over southern Mexico is forecast to become suppressed, as a mid/upper low emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific is forced eastward into and through the confluent regime across the southern tier of the United States.

It still appears that the shearing subtropical impulse, and perhaps a trailing perturbation, will be preceded by broad cool surface ridging overspreading much of the central and eastern U.S., as far south as the Gulf Coast region by Thursday. The frontal zone on the leading edge of this air mass is generally forecast to progress into the Gulf Basin and Florida Peninsula, where it is likely to linger through early next week. While forcing for ascent and destabilization might support increasing thunderstorm development across parts of central and southern Texas late this work week (mostly above/to the cool side of the stalling frontal zone) into Florida and adjacent portions of the Southeast by late next weekend, the risk for severe weather still appears relatively minor at this time.

..Kerr.. 04/27/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, May 4

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270843 SPC AC 270843

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Valid 301200Z - 051200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range guidance continues to indicate that the prevailing split flow will evolve in a manner that maintains a broadly confluent regime across and east of the Rockies through this period. Within the northern branch, it appears that a fairly significant low will form within broad troughing overspreading the Northeast by early next weekend, perhaps trailed by another developing low across parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes by early next week. At the same time, an initially prominent subtropical high centered over southern Mexico is forecast to become suppressed, as a mid/upper low emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific is forced eastward into and through the confluent regime across the southern tier of the United States.

It still appears that the shearing subtropical impulse, and perhaps a trailing perturbation, will be preceded by broad cool surface ridging overspreading much of the central and eastern U.S., as far south as the Gulf Coast region by Thursday. The frontal zone on the leading edge of this air mass is generally forecast to progress into the Gulf Basin and Florida Peninsula, where it is likely to linger through early next week. While forcing for ascent and destabilization might support increasing thunderstorm development across parts of central and southern Texas late this work week (mostly above/to the cool side of the stalling frontal zone) into Florida and adjacent portions of the Southeast by late next weekend, the risk for severe weather still appears relatively minor at this time.

..Kerr.. 04/27/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Monday, April 27

TORNADO: 15%

HAIL: 30%

WIND: 45%

Tuesday, April 28

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 30%

Wednesday, April 29

ANY SEVERE: 5%

Thursday, April 30

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Friday, May 1

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Saturday, May 2

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Sunday, May 3

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Monday, May 4

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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