Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, August 17
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern Plains. Damaging gusts will also be possible in parts of the southern Appalachians into the North Carolina Piedmont, Oklahoma and Arkansas.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 171254
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026
Valid 171300Z - 181200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS…AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern Plains. Damaging gusts will also be possible in parts of the southern Appalachians into the North Carolina Piedmont, Oklahoma and Arkansas.
Northern/Central Plains
Modest height falls are expected across the northern Plains as troughing over central Canada deepens. As it does, an associated surface low will shift eastward and an attendant cold front will push southward/southeastward across eastern MT, ND, and northwest MN. The airmass preceding this front will be moist and strongly unstable, with dewpoints likely in the upper 60s and MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg. Several different areas of initial development appear possible, including along the front from eastern ND into northwestern MN, in the vicinity of the pre-frontal trough over the NE Panhandle vicinity, and south of the front across eastern MT.
Development across eastern ND/northwestern MN and the NE Panhandle should progress southeastward into the corridor of greater buoyancy. Even so, weak ascent and relatively warm mid-levels could limit both overall storm coverage and updraft longevity. That being said, vertical shear will be strong enough to support updraft organization and supercell structures with any deep updrafts. Steep low-level lapse rates and high cloud bases suggest strong gusts are the primary severe risk, but some isolated large hail is also possible. Widely scattered nature of the storms casts doubt regarding upscale growth into a coherent MCS, but several separate bowing clusters appear probable.
Thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain isolated from central into eastern MT as well, with modest ascent attendant to a shortwave trough progressing through the northern periphery of the western CONUS ridging acting as the primary impetus for initiation. Predominantly outflow-dominant storm structures are anticipated, with strong gusts as the primary severe risk through the evening. Convective evolution is uncertain, but these storms could continue eastward through SD and NE overnight, reintensifying as they interact with the stronger buoyancy expected to be in place. In addition to strong gusts, large hail would be possible with these storms if reintensification occurs.
Central/Southern Appalachians into the Piedmont
Early-morning satellite and regional radar imagery show a decaying MCS progressing across central KY, well ahead of weak cold front that extends from far northwest OH southwestward through far southeast MO and northern AR. This MCS is forecast to continue eastward throughout the day, moving through the central Appalachians and eventually central VA. The airmass over this region is very moist, with recent surface analysis sampling upper 60s dewpoints over the higher terrain and low to mid 70s farther east from central VA into the Carolina Piedmont.
General expectation is for renewed thunderstorm development along the southern flank of the MCS, likely from far southeast KY into Middle TN. Some reintensification is also possible farther north over WV and downstream in northern/central VA, but buoyancy will be lower than farther south, suggesting predominantly muted/transient updrafts. Currently, the highest storm coverage appears most likely across far western WV, eastern TN, and western NC. Vertical shear will be weak, but moderate/strong buoyancy and steep low-level lapse rates will still support the potential for damaging gusts. These strong outflows could promote the development of several forward-propagating line segments, where updrafts/downdrafts along the outflows could result in additional damaging gusts.
Oklahoma/Arkansas
An MCS continues to progress eastward into northeast OK this morning, with a well-defined MCV noted in radar imagery back across far northwest OK. An associated outflow boundary currently arcs from the leading edge of the MCS in Osage County back southwestward through southwest OK. This MCS is forecast to weaken as it progresses eastward this morning, with weakening outflow also moving southeastward. A composite outflow/cold front will likely extend from southern OK into central AR this afternoon. Low-level convergence near this boundary will likely result in widely scattered thunderstorms by the late afternoon. Vertical shear will be weak, limiting storm organization. However, moderate instability, high cloud bases, and steep low-level lapse rates will still support the potential for isolated severe downbursts.
..Mosier/Dean.. 08/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Tuesday, August 18
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected Tuesday afternoon/evening across parts of the central Plains and toward the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 170540
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA…PARTS OF NEBRASKA…NORTHERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI…AND IOWA
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected Tuesday afternoon/evening across parts of the central Plains and toward the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valley.
Central Plains to Mid/Upper MS Valley
The forecast for Tuesday has become less certain with time, with current CAMs guidance suggesting early convection across parts NE/IA/MO early in the period. This could have implication on boundary layer destabilization later in the afternoon/evening and how convection develops/evolves during that time.
Nevertheless, an otherwise favorable environment for severe storms could develop as an upper trough continues to dig over the Great Lakes, leading to modest height falls across the northern/central Plains to the Midwest. Northwesterly flow aloft will increase to around 40-50 kt in the midlevels, providing support for supercell wind profiles across the region. Meanwhile, a moist boundary layer will be in place ahead of a southeastward-advancing front. Morning convection could result in a convective enhance surface boundary and/or outflow across portions of the NE/KS/MO/IA. Where stronger heating can occur within the very moist warm sector, resulting in stronger differential heating, convection is expected to develop by late afternoon into the evening. This could be storms along one or more boundaries across the broader region. Large hail and strong gusts will be possible with initial storms. A low-level jet is expected to strengthen during the nighttime hours, and some potential for MCS development is apparent, but conditional. Should this occur, potential for damaging wind gusts would increase.
More isolated storms are expected across the High Plains from eastern WY/northeast CO into southwest SD/western NE/KS are expected, and into parts of MN/WI, posing a risk for strong gusts and/or hail.
Southeast
A surface low is forecast to move across NC and lift northward along the East Coast. This will bring a surface front across the Southeast, where a very moist and moderately unstable airmass will be in place beneath deep-layer northwesterly flow. Vertical shear will remain weak, but multi-cell clusters could produce sporadic wet downbursts within the high PW environment. Overall, severe potential is expected to remain limited, precluding severe probabilities at this time.
..Leitman.. 08/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Wednesday, August 19
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce large hail and strong wind gusts from eastern Colorado into parts of Nebraska Wednesday afternoon/evening.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 170644
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce large hail and strong wind gusts from eastern Colorado into parts of Nebraska Wednesday afternoon/evening.
Central Plains
Moderate northwesterly flow aloft will persist over the region on Wednesday. In the wake of a prior cold frontal passage, easterly low-level winds will maintain modest boundary layer moisture across the High Plains, with somewhat deeper moisture further east into central NE. A plume of steeper midlevel lapse rates will overspread the region, and a corridor of moderate to strong instability is forecast. Vertically veering wind profiles with 40+ kt effective shear magnitudes and elongated/straight hodographs are evident in forecast soundings. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within the low-level warm advection/upslope flow regime during the afternoon into the evening. Isolated large hail and strong outflow winds will be possible.
Mid-South vicinity
An MCV may be located over KS Wednesday morning. This feature will migrate eastward as a surface boundary sags southward across parts of the Ozark Plateau into the Lower OH Valley. A corridor of rich boundary layer moisture will be in place near the surface boundary, promoting a narrow corridor of moderate to strong instability. However, forecast soundings indicated capping may rapidly increase downstream of the Ozarks into southeast MO and western TN/KY. It is possible that a narrow corridor of severe potential could develop somewhere from the Ozarks into the Mid-South as the MCV and surface boundary impinge on the area. However, confidence is low, precluding severe probabilities at this time.
..Leitman.. 08/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Thursday, August 20
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, August 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, August 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, August 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, August 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, August 24 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170748 SPC AC 170748
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
An amplified upper pattern will persist during the Day 4-8/Thu-Mon period. An upper trough will remain over the eastern U.S. while strong upper ridging spreads from the western U.S. toward the Plains late in the period. This pattern will result in moderate northwestern flow aloft across portions of the Plains into the Midwest. Beneath northwesterly flow aloft and on the eastern periphery of upper ridging, a seasonally moist airmass will be in place from the Mid/Lower MO Valley into the Upper/Middle MS Valley. Some severe potential could develop over these areas through the period. However, capping may limit this potential, and with no notable features fostering focused large-scale ascent, uncertainty is too high to include 15 percent severe probabilities at this time.
..Leitman.. 08/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, August 21
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, August 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, August 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, August 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, August 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, August 24 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170748 SPC AC 170748
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
An amplified upper pattern will persist during the Day 4-8/Thu-Mon period. An upper trough will remain over the eastern U.S. while strong upper ridging spreads from the western U.S. toward the Plains late in the period. This pattern will result in moderate northwestern flow aloft across portions of the Plains into the Midwest. Beneath northwesterly flow aloft and on the eastern periphery of upper ridging, a seasonally moist airmass will be in place from the Mid/Lower MO Valley into the Upper/Middle MS Valley. Some severe potential could develop over these areas through the period. However, capping may limit this potential, and with no notable features fostering focused large-scale ascent, uncertainty is too high to include 15 percent severe probabilities at this time.
..Leitman.. 08/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, August 22
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, August 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, August 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, August 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, August 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, August 24 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170748 SPC AC 170748
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
An amplified upper pattern will persist during the Day 4-8/Thu-Mon period. An upper trough will remain over the eastern U.S. while strong upper ridging spreads from the western U.S. toward the Plains late in the period. This pattern will result in moderate northwestern flow aloft across portions of the Plains into the Midwest. Beneath northwesterly flow aloft and on the eastern periphery of upper ridging, a seasonally moist airmass will be in place from the Mid/Lower MO Valley into the Upper/Middle MS Valley. Some severe potential could develop over these areas through the period. However, capping may limit this potential, and with no notable features fostering focused large-scale ascent, uncertainty is too high to include 15 percent severe probabilities at this time.
..Leitman.. 08/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, August 23
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, August 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, August 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, August 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, August 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, August 24 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170748 SPC AC 170748
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
An amplified upper pattern will persist during the Day 4-8/Thu-Mon period. An upper trough will remain over the eastern U.S. while strong upper ridging spreads from the western U.S. toward the Plains late in the period. This pattern will result in moderate northwestern flow aloft across portions of the Plains into the Midwest. Beneath northwesterly flow aloft and on the eastern periphery of upper ridging, a seasonally moist airmass will be in place from the Mid/Lower MO Valley into the Upper/Middle MS Valley. Some severe potential could develop over these areas through the period. However, capping may limit this potential, and with no notable features fostering focused large-scale ascent, uncertainty is too high to include 15 percent severe probabilities at this time.
..Leitman.. 08/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, August 24
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, August 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, August 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, August 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, August 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, August 24 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170748 SPC AC 170748
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
An amplified upper pattern will persist during the Day 4-8/Thu-Mon period. An upper trough will remain over the eastern U.S. while strong upper ridging spreads from the western U.S. toward the Plains late in the period. This pattern will result in moderate northwestern flow aloft across portions of the Plains into the Midwest. Beneath northwesterly flow aloft and on the eastern periphery of upper ridging, a seasonally moist airmass will be in place from the Mid/Lower MO Valley into the Upper/Middle MS Valley. Some severe potential could develop over these areas through the period. However, capping may limit this potential, and with no notable features fostering focused large-scale ascent, uncertainty is too high to include 15 percent severe probabilities at this time.
..Leitman.. 08/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, August 17
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Tuesday, August 18
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Wednesday, August 19
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Thursday, August 20
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, August 21
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, August 22
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, August 23
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, August 24
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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