Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, August 26
Outlook Summary
Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast today across parts of the southern Great Lakes into the Midwest, central/southern High Plains, and the Ozarks into the Mid-South and Lower Mississippi Valley. Severe/damaging winds should be the main threat across these regions, though large hail is also possible, particularly across the central High Plains.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 261627
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026
Valid 261630Z - 271200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST…CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS…AND OZARKS/MID-SOUTH INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast today across parts of the southern Great Lakes into the Midwest, central/southern High Plains, and the Ozarks into the Mid-South and Lower Mississippi Valley. Severe/damaging winds should be the main threat across these regions, though large hail is also possible, particularly across the central High Plains.
Mid-South/TN Valley
An MCS continues to push gradually southward/southeastward across western and middle TN. The downstream airmass is heating and destabilizing, but vertical shear remains weak and the overall system has not strengthened notably in the past hour. Destabilization across the region is strongest from the Mid-South into the Lower MS Valley, where dewpoints are largely in the mid 70s. Less low-level moisture is noted from middle TN into northern AL, but airmass destabilization is still anticipated amid modest heating. The general expectation is for the MCS to continue, but with new and/or stronger updrafts likely trending towards the western flank where the buoyancy is greatest. Even then, the lack of stronger vertical shear suggests an outflow-dominant mode with minimal organization. As such, sporadic damaging gusts are possible, particularly via updraft augmentation via storm interactions, but the current magnitude and orientation of the wind probability seems sufficient.
Arklatex across much of AR into the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley
A somewhat separate area of thunderstorm development is anticipated this afternoon west of what was discussed in the previous paragraph, although some interaction between these two regimes may occur over the Mid-South vicinity. Recent surface observations depict a surface low along the central TX/OK border (in the GYI/DUA vicinity). This low is forecast to progress gradually eastward into a moist and diurnally destabilized airmass from the Arklatex across much of AR and northern LA. A weak MCV, noted in visible satellite imagery, lags behind this surface low, and could augment ascent as it too moves eastward. Low-level convergence on a stalled frontal boundary that extends across central AR as well as along a front approaching northern AR this evening could act as additional mechanisms for thunderstorm initiation. All of these factors will likely result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the region.
Modest deep-layer shear should support some updraft organization, with multicell clusters likely the dominant mode. High total precipitable water values and large buoyancy will support robust downbursts capable of damaging wind gusts. Strong buoyancy could support occasional hail as well. Clustering may eventually result in several bowing segments this evening. As such, there is potential for at least isolated damaging winds to persist across parts of southern LA/MS.
Southern Great Lakes into the Midwest
Satellite imagery continues to show a well-defined shortwave trough moving across the Upper Great Lakes. Primary surface low associated with this system is occluded over northwest Ontario, but a secondary triple point low is moving across Upper MI. This system is forecast to move eastward today, with the attendant cold front progressing southeastward. Modest low-level moisture advection and heating ahead of this front will result in a corridor of moderate to strong buoyancy from central IL northeastward into southern Lower MI. Thunderstorm development is anticipated within this corridor this afternoon.
Low/mid-level winds will tend to remain fairly modest and veered, but 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear should foster some updraft organization. A mix of multicell clusters and marginal supercells should pose a threat for both hail and damaging winds, with the wind threat potentially becoming the primary risk with eastward extent into the Midwest as thunderstorms grow upscale. Veered low-level flow should keep the tornado potential low. The overall severe threat will likely diminish quickly this evening as convection outpaces the low-level moisture/instability, and nocturnal cooling stabilizes the boundary layer.
Central High Plains
Low levels across the central High Plains are currently characterized by dewpoints in the upper 50s and low 60s. Modest low-level upslope flow will help maintain this low-level moisture through the afternoon. This moisture combined with diurnal heating and steep mid-level lapse rates will result in airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy by the late afternoon. Additionally, southern periphery of the enhanced northwesterly flow extending from the northern Plains into the Mid MS Valley will be over the central High Plains, resulting in 25 to 35 kt of effective bulk shear. Late afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated within this environment, with some isolated supercells possible. Hail will be the primary risk initially, particularly across the CO Foothills. A trend towards clustering and more damaging wind potential is expected as this activity spreads east-southeastward through the evening.
Southern High Plains
Mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear should be somewhat weaker than areas farther north. Still, convection that develops across central into eastern NM may become loosely organized while posing an isolated threat for severe gusts given the presence of a very well-mixed boundary layer. This threat may continue into parts of the OK/TX Panhandles and west TX through the evening before eventually weakening.
..Mosier/Chalmers.. 08/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Thursday, August 27
Outlook Summary
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Northeast on Thursday. Damaging wind, hail and a tornado or two may accompany these storms.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 260557
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST
### SUMMARY
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Northeast on Thursday. Damaging wind, hail and a tornado or two may accompany these storms.
Mid Atlantic to the Northeast
An embedded mid-level trough will rotate around a broader trough across the Great Lakes. This embedded shortwave trough will advance from near Lake Erie to the VT/NH region during the day Thursday. A surface cold front will move from northern Ontario into Quebec with a trailing cold front extending southward into the Great Lakes. Moderate to potentially strong instability is forecast ahead of this front as mid to upper 60s dewpoints advect northward. Mid-level flow is not exceptionally strong, however, some stronger flow is evident above 7km on forecast soundings. This wind profile will support a predominantly multicellular storm mode. However, a few supercells may also be possible. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat, but a tornado or two may also occur farther north across eastern New York and vicinity where forecast soundings exhibit some modest low-level veering.
Central High Plains
An amplified mid-level ridge will shift east toward the Plains on Thursday. Low-level southerly flow will advect low 60s dewpoints northward into western Nebraska and far southwest South Dakota. This should result in moderate instability across the region. Forecast soundings show a favorable environment for supercells with 40+ knots of effective shear and 1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, rising heights associated with the eastward shifting ridge may keep convection mostly suppressed. Nonetheless, isolated storms are possible within this favorable environment which would support a conditional 2+ inch hail and 75+ mph wind gust threat.
..Bentley.. 08/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Friday, August 28
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across northern Georgia into the Carolinas and the northern Plains.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 260720
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across northern Georgia into the Carolinas and the northern Plains.
Central Plains
The upper-level ridge across the Plains will start to deamplify on Friday. Simultaneously, a lee trough will develop across the northern Plains and into the central High Plains. Strengthening low-level flow will lead to a moistening/destabilizing airmass east of the lee trough. In addition, the low-level jet will strengthen to near 40 knots across the Plains. Increasing isentropic ascent associated with this strengthening low-level jet will be the primary forcing mechanism for storms across the region. 00Z guidance focuses this low-level jet east of the primary instability which creates considerable uncertainty for storm coverage and intensity. Given the environment for severe weather across the region, have highlighted the most favorable area with a 5% severe weather probability.
North Georgia into the Carolinas
A very moist airmass will be present across the Carolinas on Friday with dewpoints in the 70s. Around 20 to 25 knots of mid-level flow may result in occasional storm organization, but weak lapse rates may limit storm intensity. Nonetheless, numerous storms in a very moist, moderate to strongly unstable environment will support some damaging wind potential. Therefore, a Marginal Risk has been added for this threat.
..Bentley.. 08/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Saturday, August 29
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, August 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, August 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, August 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, September 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, September 2 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260842 SPC AC 260842
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026
Valid 291200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Saturday - Northern Plains to Upper Midwest
A mid-level ridge will move slowly east across the Plains with slight suppression through the day. A lee trough will consolidate into a surface low across the northern Plains through the day Saturday. Ahead of this surface low, strong instability is forecast across South Dakota and vicinity. Despite the favorable environment across this region, primary forcing will be focused on the nose of the low-level jet across Iowa and into Wisconsin, well east of the greatest instability and near the Canadian border. Therefore, limited storm coverage precludes severe weather probabilities at this time, but given the favorable environment, it will need to be monitored closely.
D5/Sunday - North Dakota and Vicinity
A mid-level shortwave trough will move from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Plains Saturday/D4 and Sunday/D5. 00Z guidance has come into fairly consistent agreement with the location and amplitude of this trough across eastern Montana at 00Z Sunday evening. However, there is considerable disagreement with the degree of destabilization across North Dakota, where forcing will be greatest. The GFS dry bias across most of the Plains has severely lessened the instability. However, despite this challenge, it is apparent that most of the instability significantly southeast of the upper-level forcing. The GFS-Para seems to have a more realistic handle on low-level moisture/instability magnitude but it also shows a significant disconnect between where this instability is located and the deeper forcing.
The deterministic ECMWF forecast shows a potentially significant severe weather event across North Dakota with strong instability and shear ahead of a robust convective QPF signal. This is supported by the AI-ECMWF which shows a similar evolution. However, the EC-ensemble mean of instability shows at least some trend toward the GEFS with primary instability southeast of the best forcing.
It is also worth noting that the wave is forecast to eject across North Dakota relatively late (~06Z) which may be a somewhat limiting factor to a greater threat. This potential timing disconnect, combined with some hint of limited overlap between the greatest instability and the primary upper forcing, cast enough uncertainty to preclude severe weather probabilities at this time. However, it is worth noting that if a solution similar to the ECMWF materializes, a significant severe weather event is possible.
D6 and Beyond
By early next week, the primary mid-level ridge appears to center around the southern Appalachians with broad southwesterly flow from the Southwest to the Great Lakes. Within this area of southwesterly flow, multiple embedded mid-level shortwave troughs are forecast. Predictability of these smaller scale features is relatively low at this range, but some continued severe weather threat will likely persist around the periphery of the ridge from the Plains to the Great Lakes and potentially into the Northeast.
..Bentley.. 08/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, August 30
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, August 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, August 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, August 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, September 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, September 2 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260842 SPC AC 260842
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026
Valid 291200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Saturday - Northern Plains to Upper Midwest
A mid-level ridge will move slowly east across the Plains with slight suppression through the day. A lee trough will consolidate into a surface low across the northern Plains through the day Saturday. Ahead of this surface low, strong instability is forecast across South Dakota and vicinity. Despite the favorable environment across this region, primary forcing will be focused on the nose of the low-level jet across Iowa and into Wisconsin, well east of the greatest instability and near the Canadian border. Therefore, limited storm coverage precludes severe weather probabilities at this time, but given the favorable environment, it will need to be monitored closely.
D5/Sunday - North Dakota and Vicinity
A mid-level shortwave trough will move from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Plains Saturday/D4 and Sunday/D5. 00Z guidance has come into fairly consistent agreement with the location and amplitude of this trough across eastern Montana at 00Z Sunday evening. However, there is considerable disagreement with the degree of destabilization across North Dakota, where forcing will be greatest. The GFS dry bias across most of the Plains has severely lessened the instability. However, despite this challenge, it is apparent that most of the instability significantly southeast of the upper-level forcing. The GFS-Para seems to have a more realistic handle on low-level moisture/instability magnitude but it also shows a significant disconnect between where this instability is located and the deeper forcing.
The deterministic ECMWF forecast shows a potentially significant severe weather event across North Dakota with strong instability and shear ahead of a robust convective QPF signal. This is supported by the AI-ECMWF which shows a similar evolution. However, the EC-ensemble mean of instability shows at least some trend toward the GEFS with primary instability southeast of the best forcing.
It is also worth noting that the wave is forecast to eject across North Dakota relatively late (~06Z) which may be a somewhat limiting factor to a greater threat. This potential timing disconnect, combined with some hint of limited overlap between the greatest instability and the primary upper forcing, cast enough uncertainty to preclude severe weather probabilities at this time. However, it is worth noting that if a solution similar to the ECMWF materializes, a significant severe weather event is possible.
D6 and Beyond
By early next week, the primary mid-level ridge appears to center around the southern Appalachians with broad southwesterly flow from the Southwest to the Great Lakes. Within this area of southwesterly flow, multiple embedded mid-level shortwave troughs are forecast. Predictability of these smaller scale features is relatively low at this range, but some continued severe weather threat will likely persist around the periphery of the ridge from the Plains to the Great Lakes and potentially into the Northeast.
..Bentley.. 08/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, August 31
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, August 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, August 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, August 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, September 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, September 2 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260842 SPC AC 260842
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026
Valid 291200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Saturday - Northern Plains to Upper Midwest
A mid-level ridge will move slowly east across the Plains with slight suppression through the day. A lee trough will consolidate into a surface low across the northern Plains through the day Saturday. Ahead of this surface low, strong instability is forecast across South Dakota and vicinity. Despite the favorable environment across this region, primary forcing will be focused on the nose of the low-level jet across Iowa and into Wisconsin, well east of the greatest instability and near the Canadian border. Therefore, limited storm coverage precludes severe weather probabilities at this time, but given the favorable environment, it will need to be monitored closely.
D5/Sunday - North Dakota and Vicinity
A mid-level shortwave trough will move from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Plains Saturday/D4 and Sunday/D5. 00Z guidance has come into fairly consistent agreement with the location and amplitude of this trough across eastern Montana at 00Z Sunday evening. However, there is considerable disagreement with the degree of destabilization across North Dakota, where forcing will be greatest. The GFS dry bias across most of the Plains has severely lessened the instability. However, despite this challenge, it is apparent that most of the instability significantly southeast of the upper-level forcing. The GFS-Para seems to have a more realistic handle on low-level moisture/instability magnitude but it also shows a significant disconnect between where this instability is located and the deeper forcing.
The deterministic ECMWF forecast shows a potentially significant severe weather event across North Dakota with strong instability and shear ahead of a robust convective QPF signal. This is supported by the AI-ECMWF which shows a similar evolution. However, the EC-ensemble mean of instability shows at least some trend toward the GEFS with primary instability southeast of the best forcing.
It is also worth noting that the wave is forecast to eject across North Dakota relatively late (~06Z) which may be a somewhat limiting factor to a greater threat. This potential timing disconnect, combined with some hint of limited overlap between the greatest instability and the primary upper forcing, cast enough uncertainty to preclude severe weather probabilities at this time. However, it is worth noting that if a solution similar to the ECMWF materializes, a significant severe weather event is possible.
D6 and Beyond
By early next week, the primary mid-level ridge appears to center around the southern Appalachians with broad southwesterly flow from the Southwest to the Great Lakes. Within this area of southwesterly flow, multiple embedded mid-level shortwave troughs are forecast. Predictability of these smaller scale features is relatively low at this range, but some continued severe weather threat will likely persist around the periphery of the ridge from the Plains to the Great Lakes and potentially into the Northeast.
..Bentley.. 08/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, September 1
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, August 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, August 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, August 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, September 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, September 2 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260842 SPC AC 260842
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026
Valid 291200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Saturday - Northern Plains to Upper Midwest
A mid-level ridge will move slowly east across the Plains with slight suppression through the day. A lee trough will consolidate into a surface low across the northern Plains through the day Saturday. Ahead of this surface low, strong instability is forecast across South Dakota and vicinity. Despite the favorable environment across this region, primary forcing will be focused on the nose of the low-level jet across Iowa and into Wisconsin, well east of the greatest instability and near the Canadian border. Therefore, limited storm coverage precludes severe weather probabilities at this time, but given the favorable environment, it will need to be monitored closely.
D5/Sunday - North Dakota and Vicinity
A mid-level shortwave trough will move from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Plains Saturday/D4 and Sunday/D5. 00Z guidance has come into fairly consistent agreement with the location and amplitude of this trough across eastern Montana at 00Z Sunday evening. However, there is considerable disagreement with the degree of destabilization across North Dakota, where forcing will be greatest. The GFS dry bias across most of the Plains has severely lessened the instability. However, despite this challenge, it is apparent that most of the instability significantly southeast of the upper-level forcing. The GFS-Para seems to have a more realistic handle on low-level moisture/instability magnitude but it also shows a significant disconnect between where this instability is located and the deeper forcing.
The deterministic ECMWF forecast shows a potentially significant severe weather event across North Dakota with strong instability and shear ahead of a robust convective QPF signal. This is supported by the AI-ECMWF which shows a similar evolution. However, the EC-ensemble mean of instability shows at least some trend toward the GEFS with primary instability southeast of the best forcing.
It is also worth noting that the wave is forecast to eject across North Dakota relatively late (~06Z) which may be a somewhat limiting factor to a greater threat. This potential timing disconnect, combined with some hint of limited overlap between the greatest instability and the primary upper forcing, cast enough uncertainty to preclude severe weather probabilities at this time. However, it is worth noting that if a solution similar to the ECMWF materializes, a significant severe weather event is possible.
D6 and Beyond
By early next week, the primary mid-level ridge appears to center around the southern Appalachians with broad southwesterly flow from the Southwest to the Great Lakes. Within this area of southwesterly flow, multiple embedded mid-level shortwave troughs are forecast. Predictability of these smaller scale features is relatively low at this range, but some continued severe weather threat will likely persist around the periphery of the ridge from the Plains to the Great Lakes and potentially into the Northeast.
..Bentley.. 08/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, September 2
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, August 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, August 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, August 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, September 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, September 2 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260842 SPC AC 260842
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026
Valid 291200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Saturday - Northern Plains to Upper Midwest
A mid-level ridge will move slowly east across the Plains with slight suppression through the day. A lee trough will consolidate into a surface low across the northern Plains through the day Saturday. Ahead of this surface low, strong instability is forecast across South Dakota and vicinity. Despite the favorable environment across this region, primary forcing will be focused on the nose of the low-level jet across Iowa and into Wisconsin, well east of the greatest instability and near the Canadian border. Therefore, limited storm coverage precludes severe weather probabilities at this time, but given the favorable environment, it will need to be monitored closely.
D5/Sunday - North Dakota and Vicinity
A mid-level shortwave trough will move from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Plains Saturday/D4 and Sunday/D5. 00Z guidance has come into fairly consistent agreement with the location and amplitude of this trough across eastern Montana at 00Z Sunday evening. However, there is considerable disagreement with the degree of destabilization across North Dakota, where forcing will be greatest. The GFS dry bias across most of the Plains has severely lessened the instability. However, despite this challenge, it is apparent that most of the instability significantly southeast of the upper-level forcing. The GFS-Para seems to have a more realistic handle on low-level moisture/instability magnitude but it also shows a significant disconnect between where this instability is located and the deeper forcing.
The deterministic ECMWF forecast shows a potentially significant severe weather event across North Dakota with strong instability and shear ahead of a robust convective QPF signal. This is supported by the AI-ECMWF which shows a similar evolution. However, the EC-ensemble mean of instability shows at least some trend toward the GEFS with primary instability southeast of the best forcing.
It is also worth noting that the wave is forecast to eject across North Dakota relatively late (~06Z) which may be a somewhat limiting factor to a greater threat. This potential timing disconnect, combined with some hint of limited overlap between the greatest instability and the primary upper forcing, cast enough uncertainty to preclude severe weather probabilities at this time. However, it is worth noting that if a solution similar to the ECMWF materializes, a significant severe weather event is possible.
D6 and Beyond
By early next week, the primary mid-level ridge appears to center around the southern Appalachians with broad southwesterly flow from the Southwest to the Great Lakes. Within this area of southwesterly flow, multiple embedded mid-level shortwave troughs are forecast. Predictability of these smaller scale features is relatively low at this range, but some continued severe weather threat will likely persist around the periphery of the ridge from the Plains to the Great Lakes and potentially into the Northeast.
..Bentley.. 08/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, August 26
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Thursday, August 27
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Friday, August 28
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Saturday, August 29
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, August 30
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, August 31
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, September 1
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, September 2
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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