Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, April 20
Outlook Summary
Severe storms are not expected today.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 200418
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe storms are not expected today.
Synopsis
An upper trough will exit the northeastern states today, with northwest flow aloft extending from the northern Plains to the East Coast. Upper ridging will occur over the Rockies, while a large upper trough slowly approaches the West Coast.
At the surface, high pressure will result in relatively stable conditions for much of the central and eastern CONUS, with centers over the Mid Atlantic and near the northern Gulf Coast.
In the wake of the eastern trough, winds just off the surface will maintain a zone of elevated moisture and instability over much of TX, where scattered showers and storms will be most likely. Weak instability will preclude any severe storm chances there.
To the west, cooling aloft with the approaching upper trough will support weak instability into parts of OR and WA, with isolated late day thunderstorms possible over portions of the Cascades. Small/non-severe hail cannot be ruled out, along with locally gusty winds mainly in the 00-03Z time frame.
..Jewell/Chalmers.. 04/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Tuesday, April 21
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms will be possible across the western CONUS, the south-central CONUS, and the southern Great Lakes on Tuesday. Potential for severe weather appears low.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 200547
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms will be possible across the western CONUS, the south-central CONUS, and the southern Great Lakes on Tuesday. Potential for severe weather appears low.
Synopsis
Midlevel ridging will be in place from the eastern Great Basin into the Plains at the start of the forecast period, while persistent northwesterly flow aloft continues across the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley. Farther west, an upper trough will gradually advanced inland across California into the Great Basin by the end of the period.
At the surface, a broad area of high pressure centered over the Southeast and adjacent Atlantic will maintain southerly flow across the central US. This will promote a gradual moisture recovery across the central Plains into the southern Great Lakes. A weak frontal boundary pushing south through portions of the central Plains and Great Lakes will denote the northern edge of the moisture return.
Lower Great Lakes
Thunderstorm development along the frontal zone may be delayed until later in the day or evening as moisture slowly returns northward. While relatively cold temperatures aloft should support steep lapse rates, the quality and depth of the boundary-layer moisture is expected to be the biggest unknown. The NAM is the most aggressive with the depth and quality of the moisture return, and if moisture quality is close to what is shown in the NAM, enough instability should materialize to take advantage of the stronger vertical shear to support a few organized cells capable of gusty winds or small hail. However, most model guidance is less aggressive with the quality of the moisture return so no probabilities have been added at this time.
South-central US
Convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the forecast period. Modest vertical shear and elevated instability may support a couple strong thunderstorms capable of hail and gusty winds. However, overall thunderstorm intensity should wane through much of the period as upper ridging overspreads the region.
Western US
As the upper trough moves inland, ascent will increase across the Pacific Northwest, northern California, and portions of the Great Basin. Within the Central Valley and nearby terrain, pockets of diurnal heating, combined with cool midlevel temperatures may support isolated thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Despite this modest instability, weak vertical shear should limit any organized severe potential.
..Marsh.. 04/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Wednesday, April 22
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms capable of hail and gusty winds may develop during the late afternoon and evening across portions of the High Plains. Elsewhere, thunderstorms will be possible across the northern Gulf Coast and portions of the Ohio Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 200727
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS OF NEBRASKA SOUTH INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms capable of hail and gusty winds may develop during the late afternoon and evening across portions of the High Plains. Elsewhere, thunderstorms will be possible across the northern Gulf Coast and portions of the Ohio Valley.
Synopsis
A shortwave trough will eject northeast out of the basal region of the western CONUS trough and into the northern Plains on Wednesday. As this happens, strengthening southerly/southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread much of the High Plains. A surface cyclone over eastern Montana will gradually deepen as it slowly moves east.
Central High Plains south into the southern High Plains
As the Montana surface cyclone gradually deepens on Wednesday, Gulf moisture will be drawn northward into the central and northern Plains. As the upper trough approaches the region during the late afternoon/evening, modest height falls are expected to overspread a sharpening dryline across far eastern Colorado or western Nebraska south into the Texas Panhandle. Kinematic profiles up and down the dryline show ample vertical shear for supercells capable of producing hail and gusty winds. However, considerable uncertainty remains regarding thunderstorm coverage owing to the significant differences in the depth and quality of the boundary layer moisture return noted in the 20260420/00Z guidance suite. For example, the NAM is nearly 5F more moist along the dryline across portions of Nebraska than global models.
That said, pattern recognition and 00Z RRFS suggest that at least a couple of storms should develop along the dryline from Nebraska south into the eastern Texas Panhandle. Deep-layer flow will largely parallel the dryline during the afternoon which should preclude much eastward advancement. A 5% unconditional risk area has been added to account for this potential.
Elsewhere Across the CONUS
Thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the forecast period and persist into the early afternoon across portions of the northern Gulf Coast. The thunderstorm potential should wane with time as increasing midlevel heights suppress large-scale ascent.
Additionally, modest low-level moisture and weak instability may support a few lightning strikes within a weak surface boundary across the Ohio Valley.
..Marsh.. 04/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Thursday, April 23
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, April 23 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Friday, April 24 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Saturday, April 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, April 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, April 27 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200858 SPC AC 200858
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
In the days preceding this forecast period, a long-wave trough will develop across the western US. This feature will persist across the western and central US through the forecast period supporting a multi-day severe weather threat across portions of the central US.
On Thursday/Day-4, a lobe of vorticity will rotate around the closed midlevel low across the northern Rockies. This will reinforce a surface cyclone as it moves north into Canada. As this low moves north, a combined dryline/cold front will move east into an increasingly moist environment across the central Plains. The airmass ahead of the front should destabilize during the day Thursday, with MUCAPE values over 1000 J/kg possible into portions of Minnesota.
Thunderstorms should develop across portions of northeast Kansas into Iowa during the late afternoon as height falls overspread the surface front. These storms should quickly build southward along the front into portions of Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Kinematic fields initially should support supercells, but midlevel flow will increasingly become parallel to the front suggesting that storms will grow upscale into one or more linear segments.
The surface front, augmented by convective outflows, will continue to push south and east into the Southern Plains and the greater ArkLaTex region overnight Thursday into Friday/Day-5 before stalling out. Forecast soundings along and ahead of the frontal boundary indicate an unstable, uncapped environment with vertical shear between 30-40 knots should support additional severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon into the evening/overnight across portions of eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas.
By Saturday/Day-6, the larger-scale flow across the southern Plains will begin to respond to a low-latitude trough moving into southern California by once again becoming increasingly southwesterly. Embedded perturbations within this southwest flow ahead of the main trough will support an ongoing severe threat across the southern Plains. However, the location of various surface boundaries (dryline, outflow, frontal) will be predicated on the evolution of prior days of convection and the timing of the aforementioned perturbations in the midlevel flow. Thus, while pattern recognition suggests severe weather will be possible on Days 6,7, and 8, certainty as to the location of greatest severe potential on any given day remains too low to highlight with unconditional probabilities at this time.
..Marsh.. 04/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, April 24
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, April 23 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Friday, April 24 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Saturday, April 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, April 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, April 27 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200858 SPC AC 200858
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
In the days preceding this forecast period, a long-wave trough will develop across the western US. This feature will persist across the western and central US through the forecast period supporting a multi-day severe weather threat across portions of the central US.
On Thursday/Day-4, a lobe of vorticity will rotate around the closed midlevel low across the northern Rockies. This will reinforce a surface cyclone as it moves north into Canada. As this low moves north, a combined dryline/cold front will move east into an increasingly moist environment across the central Plains. The airmass ahead of the front should destabilize during the day Thursday, with MUCAPE values over 1000 J/kg possible into portions of Minnesota.
Thunderstorms should develop across portions of northeast Kansas into Iowa during the late afternoon as height falls overspread the surface front. These storms should quickly build southward along the front into portions of Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Kinematic fields initially should support supercells, but midlevel flow will increasingly become parallel to the front suggesting that storms will grow upscale into one or more linear segments.
The surface front, augmented by convective outflows, will continue to push south and east into the Southern Plains and the greater ArkLaTex region overnight Thursday into Friday/Day-5 before stalling out. Forecast soundings along and ahead of the frontal boundary indicate an unstable, uncapped environment with vertical shear between 30-40 knots should support additional severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon into the evening/overnight across portions of eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas.
By Saturday/Day-6, the larger-scale flow across the southern Plains will begin to respond to a low-latitude trough moving into southern California by once again becoming increasingly southwesterly. Embedded perturbations within this southwest flow ahead of the main trough will support an ongoing severe threat across the southern Plains. However, the location of various surface boundaries (dryline, outflow, frontal) will be predicated on the evolution of prior days of convection and the timing of the aforementioned perturbations in the midlevel flow. Thus, while pattern recognition suggests severe weather will be possible on Days 6,7, and 8, certainty as to the location of greatest severe potential on any given day remains too low to highlight with unconditional probabilities at this time.
..Marsh.. 04/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, April 25
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, April 23 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Friday, April 24 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Saturday, April 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, April 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, April 27 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200858 SPC AC 200858
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
In the days preceding this forecast period, a long-wave trough will develop across the western US. This feature will persist across the western and central US through the forecast period supporting a multi-day severe weather threat across portions of the central US.
On Thursday/Day-4, a lobe of vorticity will rotate around the closed midlevel low across the northern Rockies. This will reinforce a surface cyclone as it moves north into Canada. As this low moves north, a combined dryline/cold front will move east into an increasingly moist environment across the central Plains. The airmass ahead of the front should destabilize during the day Thursday, with MUCAPE values over 1000 J/kg possible into portions of Minnesota.
Thunderstorms should develop across portions of northeast Kansas into Iowa during the late afternoon as height falls overspread the surface front. These storms should quickly build southward along the front into portions of Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Kinematic fields initially should support supercells, but midlevel flow will increasingly become parallel to the front suggesting that storms will grow upscale into one or more linear segments.
The surface front, augmented by convective outflows, will continue to push south and east into the Southern Plains and the greater ArkLaTex region overnight Thursday into Friday/Day-5 before stalling out. Forecast soundings along and ahead of the frontal boundary indicate an unstable, uncapped environment with vertical shear between 30-40 knots should support additional severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon into the evening/overnight across portions of eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas.
By Saturday/Day-6, the larger-scale flow across the southern Plains will begin to respond to a low-latitude trough moving into southern California by once again becoming increasingly southwesterly. Embedded perturbations within this southwest flow ahead of the main trough will support an ongoing severe threat across the southern Plains. However, the location of various surface boundaries (dryline, outflow, frontal) will be predicated on the evolution of prior days of convection and the timing of the aforementioned perturbations in the midlevel flow. Thus, while pattern recognition suggests severe weather will be possible on Days 6,7, and 8, certainty as to the location of greatest severe potential on any given day remains too low to highlight with unconditional probabilities at this time.
..Marsh.. 04/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, April 26
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, April 23 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Friday, April 24 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Saturday, April 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, April 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, April 27 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200858 SPC AC 200858
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
In the days preceding this forecast period, a long-wave trough will develop across the western US. This feature will persist across the western and central US through the forecast period supporting a multi-day severe weather threat across portions of the central US.
On Thursday/Day-4, a lobe of vorticity will rotate around the closed midlevel low across the northern Rockies. This will reinforce a surface cyclone as it moves north into Canada. As this low moves north, a combined dryline/cold front will move east into an increasingly moist environment across the central Plains. The airmass ahead of the front should destabilize during the day Thursday, with MUCAPE values over 1000 J/kg possible into portions of Minnesota.
Thunderstorms should develop across portions of northeast Kansas into Iowa during the late afternoon as height falls overspread the surface front. These storms should quickly build southward along the front into portions of Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Kinematic fields initially should support supercells, but midlevel flow will increasingly become parallel to the front suggesting that storms will grow upscale into one or more linear segments.
The surface front, augmented by convective outflows, will continue to push south and east into the Southern Plains and the greater ArkLaTex region overnight Thursday into Friday/Day-5 before stalling out. Forecast soundings along and ahead of the frontal boundary indicate an unstable, uncapped environment with vertical shear between 30-40 knots should support additional severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon into the evening/overnight across portions of eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas.
By Saturday/Day-6, the larger-scale flow across the southern Plains will begin to respond to a low-latitude trough moving into southern California by once again becoming increasingly southwesterly. Embedded perturbations within this southwest flow ahead of the main trough will support an ongoing severe threat across the southern Plains. However, the location of various surface boundaries (dryline, outflow, frontal) will be predicated on the evolution of prior days of convection and the timing of the aforementioned perturbations in the midlevel flow. Thus, while pattern recognition suggests severe weather will be possible on Days 6,7, and 8, certainty as to the location of greatest severe potential on any given day remains too low to highlight with unconditional probabilities at this time.
..Marsh.. 04/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, April 27
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, April 23 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Friday, April 24 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Saturday, April 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, April 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, April 27 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200858 SPC AC 200858
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
In the days preceding this forecast period, a long-wave trough will develop across the western US. This feature will persist across the western and central US through the forecast period supporting a multi-day severe weather threat across portions of the central US.
On Thursday/Day-4, a lobe of vorticity will rotate around the closed midlevel low across the northern Rockies. This will reinforce a surface cyclone as it moves north into Canada. As this low moves north, a combined dryline/cold front will move east into an increasingly moist environment across the central Plains. The airmass ahead of the front should destabilize during the day Thursday, with MUCAPE values over 1000 J/kg possible into portions of Minnesota.
Thunderstorms should develop across portions of northeast Kansas into Iowa during the late afternoon as height falls overspread the surface front. These storms should quickly build southward along the front into portions of Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Kinematic fields initially should support supercells, but midlevel flow will increasingly become parallel to the front suggesting that storms will grow upscale into one or more linear segments.
The surface front, augmented by convective outflows, will continue to push south and east into the Southern Plains and the greater ArkLaTex region overnight Thursday into Friday/Day-5 before stalling out. Forecast soundings along and ahead of the frontal boundary indicate an unstable, uncapped environment with vertical shear between 30-40 knots should support additional severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon into the evening/overnight across portions of eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas.
By Saturday/Day-6, the larger-scale flow across the southern Plains will begin to respond to a low-latitude trough moving into southern California by once again becoming increasingly southwesterly. Embedded perturbations within this southwest flow ahead of the main trough will support an ongoing severe threat across the southern Plains. However, the location of various surface boundaries (dryline, outflow, frontal) will be predicated on the evolution of prior days of convection and the timing of the aforementioned perturbations in the midlevel flow. Thus, while pattern recognition suggests severe weather will be possible on Days 6,7, and 8, certainty as to the location of greatest severe potential on any given day remains too low to highlight with unconditional probabilities at this time.
..Marsh.. 04/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, April 20
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, April 21
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Wednesday, April 22
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Thursday, April 23
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Friday, April 24
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Saturday, April 25
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, April 26
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, April 27
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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