Hayley here
- Do you like
lofi music
whatever music Hayley put on
and terrifyingly loud computer voices? Then stop by the 24/7 ish severe weather live stream!
* stats delayed and were probably not accurate to begin with
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
← back to overviewSPC AC 091614
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1014 AM CST Tue Dec 09 2025
Valid 091630Z - 101200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
Synopsis and Discussion
Upper pattern will remain active today/tonight as a low-amplitude shortwave trough progresses quickly eastward through the OH Valley ahead of a more substantial shortwave trough moving southeastward out of the Canadian Prairies and through the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. By 12Z Wednesday, this second shortwave will likely extend from the Lake Michigan vicinity southwestward into northeast KS/northwest MO.
Progression of this second shortwave will reinforce the already dry and stable airmass in place across much of CONUS, precluding thunderstorms. Some modest moisture return is anticipated late tonight/early tomorrow across the western Gulf, but much of this moisture will remain offshore. Some low-level moisture also remains in place across south FL, even in the wake of the cold front now settled across the Florida Straits. Even with this low-level moisture still in place, modest and shallow buoyancy, and limited forcing for ascent should preclude thunderstorms across south FL today.
..Mosier/Moore.. 12/09/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible on Wednesday.
← back to overviewSPC AC 091646
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1046 AM CST Tue Dec 09 2025
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible on Wednesday.
Synopsis
Despite the presence of a deep cyclone moving across the Northeast on Wednesday, low-level moisture return will continue to be suppressed in the wake of an earlier frontal passage, resulting in negligible thunderstorm potential across the CONUS. Weak buoyancy may develop across parts of far south FL and the Keys, but with generally weak ascent and dry air aloft across this region, any deep convection is expected to remain offshore.
..Dean.. 12/09/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Thursday through Thursday night.
← back to overviewSPC AC 090742
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Tue Dec 09 2025
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Thursday through Thursday night.
Discussion
Downstream of an increasingly prominent, blocking high building near and to the north of the Aleutians during this period, models indicate that strong flow will take on an increasing northwesterly component across southern British Columbia and adjacent portions of the Pacific Northwest into portions of the Canadian Prairies and northern U.S. Great Plains. It appears that a significant short wave trough near the leading edge of this regime will begin to reinforce broad mid-level troughing extending downstream into the western Atlantic.
While mid-level flow is likely to remain cyclonic as far south as the Gulf Coast states into the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes of the western Atlantic, heights across the south are forecast to begin to rise, as a prominent perturbation accelerates rapidly east-northeast of the lower Great Lakes region through the Canadian Maritimes.
The primary surface front, trailing an evolving cyclone across the Canadian Maritimes, may stall across the southern Atlantic coast through Tennessee Valley, while progressing slowly southward through the lower Missouri Valley and central Great Plains by late Thursday night, in advance of much colder air beginning to nose southward to the lee of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies.
As a remnant preceding front becomes more diffuse across the central through northwestern Gulf Basin, Gulf boundary-layer modification may gradually continue, as a weak southerly return flow begins to develop across the Texas coast. However, beneath relatively warm and dry lower/mid-levels, it does not appears that this will contribute to appreciable destabilization during this period.
..Kerr.. 12/09/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
| Day 4 | Friday, December 12 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, December 13 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, December 14 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, December 15 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, December 16 | potential too low |
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090927 SPC AC 090927
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 AM CST Tue Dec 09 2025
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range models indicate that at least a couple of short wave troughs, digging within an initially strong northwesterly regime across and to the east-southeast of the Canadian Rockies, will contribute to reinforcement of large-scale troughing farther downstream late this work week into next weekend. As this occurs, cold surface ridging building to the lee of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies is forecast to eventually overspread much of the central and eastern U.S., offshore Atlantic and northwestern Gulf Basin by the beginning of next week.
Based on the past few model runs, it appears that an initial southeastward surge of cold air may weaken before reaching the Gulf coast, allowing for a gradual boundary-layer modification over the northwestern Gulf Basin to continue, before the more substantive surge of cold air reaches the northern Gulf by late this weekend. Particularly in association with the stronger front, if not also the weaker initial one, a moistening elevated and perhaps boundary-layer based return flow may contribute to sufficient destabilization to support a risk for thunderstorms, anywhere in a corridor from southeastern Texas toward the Mid South and Tennessee Valley. However, with any surface frontal wave development forecast to remain weak, the risk for severe weather is likely to remain low.
Into early next week, model output becomes more varied, but it appears that flow may trend more zonal across the northern mid-latitudes of North America. In lower latitudes, another developing moist southerly return flow, in advance of troughing digging across the southern Rockies and Great Plains, may contribute to renewed thunderstorm development across the northwestern Gulf coast vicinity. However, the potential for severe weather still seems limited at this time.
..Kerr.. 12/09/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
| Day 4 | Friday, December 12 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, December 13 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, December 14 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, December 15 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, December 16 | potential too low |
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090927 SPC AC 090927
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 AM CST Tue Dec 09 2025
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range models indicate that at least a couple of short wave troughs, digging within an initially strong northwesterly regime across and to the east-southeast of the Canadian Rockies, will contribute to reinforcement of large-scale troughing farther downstream late this work week into next weekend. As this occurs, cold surface ridging building to the lee of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies is forecast to eventually overspread much of the central and eastern U.S., offshore Atlantic and northwestern Gulf Basin by the beginning of next week.
Based on the past few model runs, it appears that an initial southeastward surge of cold air may weaken before reaching the Gulf coast, allowing for a gradual boundary-layer modification over the northwestern Gulf Basin to continue, before the more substantive surge of cold air reaches the northern Gulf by late this weekend. Particularly in association with the stronger front, if not also the weaker initial one, a moistening elevated and perhaps boundary-layer based return flow may contribute to sufficient destabilization to support a risk for thunderstorms, anywhere in a corridor from southeastern Texas toward the Mid South and Tennessee Valley. However, with any surface frontal wave development forecast to remain weak, the risk for severe weather is likely to remain low.
Into early next week, model output becomes more varied, but it appears that flow may trend more zonal across the northern mid-latitudes of North America. In lower latitudes, another developing moist southerly return flow, in advance of troughing digging across the southern Rockies and Great Plains, may contribute to renewed thunderstorm development across the northwestern Gulf coast vicinity. However, the potential for severe weather still seems limited at this time.
..Kerr.. 12/09/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
| Day 4 | Friday, December 12 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, December 13 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, December 14 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, December 15 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, December 16 | potential too low |
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090927 SPC AC 090927
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 AM CST Tue Dec 09 2025
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range models indicate that at least a couple of short wave troughs, digging within an initially strong northwesterly regime across and to the east-southeast of the Canadian Rockies, will contribute to reinforcement of large-scale troughing farther downstream late this work week into next weekend. As this occurs, cold surface ridging building to the lee of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies is forecast to eventually overspread much of the central and eastern U.S., offshore Atlantic and northwestern Gulf Basin by the beginning of next week.
Based on the past few model runs, it appears that an initial southeastward surge of cold air may weaken before reaching the Gulf coast, allowing for a gradual boundary-layer modification over the northwestern Gulf Basin to continue, before the more substantive surge of cold air reaches the northern Gulf by late this weekend. Particularly in association with the stronger front, if not also the weaker initial one, a moistening elevated and perhaps boundary-layer based return flow may contribute to sufficient destabilization to support a risk for thunderstorms, anywhere in a corridor from southeastern Texas toward the Mid South and Tennessee Valley. However, with any surface frontal wave development forecast to remain weak, the risk for severe weather is likely to remain low.
Into early next week, model output becomes more varied, but it appears that flow may trend more zonal across the northern mid-latitudes of North America. In lower latitudes, another developing moist southerly return flow, in advance of troughing digging across the southern Rockies and Great Plains, may contribute to renewed thunderstorm development across the northwestern Gulf coast vicinity. However, the potential for severe weather still seems limited at this time.
..Kerr.. 12/09/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
| Day 4 | Friday, December 12 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, December 13 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, December 14 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, December 15 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, December 16 | potential too low |
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090927 SPC AC 090927
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 AM CST Tue Dec 09 2025
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range models indicate that at least a couple of short wave troughs, digging within an initially strong northwesterly regime across and to the east-southeast of the Canadian Rockies, will contribute to reinforcement of large-scale troughing farther downstream late this work week into next weekend. As this occurs, cold surface ridging building to the lee of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies is forecast to eventually overspread much of the central and eastern U.S., offshore Atlantic and northwestern Gulf Basin by the beginning of next week.
Based on the past few model runs, it appears that an initial southeastward surge of cold air may weaken before reaching the Gulf coast, allowing for a gradual boundary-layer modification over the northwestern Gulf Basin to continue, before the more substantive surge of cold air reaches the northern Gulf by late this weekend. Particularly in association with the stronger front, if not also the weaker initial one, a moistening elevated and perhaps boundary-layer based return flow may contribute to sufficient destabilization to support a risk for thunderstorms, anywhere in a corridor from southeastern Texas toward the Mid South and Tennessee Valley. However, with any surface frontal wave development forecast to remain weak, the risk for severe weather is likely to remain low.
Into early next week, model output becomes more varied, but it appears that flow may trend more zonal across the northern mid-latitudes of North America. In lower latitudes, another developing moist southerly return flow, in advance of troughing digging across the southern Rockies and Great Plains, may contribute to renewed thunderstorm development across the northwestern Gulf coast vicinity. However, the potential for severe weather still seems limited at this time.
..Kerr.. 12/09/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
| Day 4 | Friday, December 12 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, December 13 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, December 14 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, December 15 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, December 16 | potential too low |
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090927 SPC AC 090927
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 AM CST Tue Dec 09 2025
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range models indicate that at least a couple of short wave troughs, digging within an initially strong northwesterly regime across and to the east-southeast of the Canadian Rockies, will contribute to reinforcement of large-scale troughing farther downstream late this work week into next weekend. As this occurs, cold surface ridging building to the lee of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies is forecast to eventually overspread much of the central and eastern U.S., offshore Atlantic and northwestern Gulf Basin by the beginning of next week.
Based on the past few model runs, it appears that an initial southeastward surge of cold air may weaken before reaching the Gulf coast, allowing for a gradual boundary-layer modification over the northwestern Gulf Basin to continue, before the more substantive surge of cold air reaches the northern Gulf by late this weekend. Particularly in association with the stronger front, if not also the weaker initial one, a moistening elevated and perhaps boundary-layer based return flow may contribute to sufficient destabilization to support a risk for thunderstorms, anywhere in a corridor from southeastern Texas toward the Mid South and Tennessee Valley. However, with any surface frontal wave development forecast to remain weak, the risk for severe weather is likely to remain low.
Into early next week, model output becomes more varied, but it appears that flow may trend more zonal across the northern mid-latitudes of North America. In lower latitudes, another developing moist southerly return flow, in advance of troughing digging across the southern Rockies and Great Plains, may contribute to renewed thunderstorm development across the northwestern Gulf coast vicinity. However, the potential for severe weather still seems limited at this time.
..Kerr.. 12/09/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.
Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.
SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.