Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, November 9
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the U.S. Monday through Monday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 090532
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 PM CST Sun Nov 08 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the U.S. Monday through Monday night.
South Texas
An upper low initially near the Big Bend region at 12z Monday is forecast to weaken through the day while a series of embedded perturbations track from the lower Rio Grande Valley along the coast. Forcing for ascent associated with those features along with persistent low/mid-level warm advection is likely to sustain scattered thunderstorms through the morning with areal coverage gradually decreasing by mid to late afternoon.
Similar to Sunday, the kinematic environment will feature veering winds with height with around 40 kt of deep-layer shear, which would conditionally support supercell storm modes and some severe weather threat. While a strong storm or two is possible Monday morning, it appears that outflow associated with early-day convection is likely to limit more robust air mass destabilization and an associated severe weather threat.
### Pacific Northwest
A short-wave trough is forecast to move onshore Monday afternoon with associated height falls/midlevel cooling coinciding with moist, onshore flow in the low levels. Those processes will yield weak instability (MUCAPE of 100-200 J/kg) with forecast soundings indicating the potential for convective updrafts to reach sufficient depth for episodic lightning activity from the coast inland to at least the Cascades Monday afternoon and evening. Somewhat analogous to Saturday, strong low-level winds are forecast ahead of the surface front, suggesting some potential for a few strong wind gusts in association with any deeper convective elements moving onshore.
### South Florida
A few lightning strikes may occur with diurnally enhanced thunderstorms Monday afternoon amidst a moist and marginally unstable air mass. However, forecast soundings indicate a warm and dry nose centered in the 650-600 mb layer, which will likely inhibit the majority of convective updrafts from reaching sufficient depth for lightning discharge.
..Mead.. 11/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Tuesday, November 10
Outlook Summary
No severe threat is forecast across the U.S. Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 090636
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CST Mon Nov 09 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
No severe threat is forecast across the U.S. Tuesday and Tuesday night.
DISCUSSION
At mid-levels, west-northwesterly flow will remain in place on Tuesday across much of the U.S. Within the flow, a shortwave trough will move eastward across the southern Plains. Ahead of the trough, isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the Texas Gulf Coast from Tuesday into Tuesday night. No severe threat is expected, and no thunderstorms are forecast across the remainder of the continental U.S.
..Broyles.. 11/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Wednesday, November 11
Outlook Summary
No severe threat is forecast across the U.S. Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 090717
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 AM CST Mon Nov 09 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
No severe threat is forecast across the U.S. Wednesday and Wednesday night.
DISCUSSION
At upper-levels, a ridge will move eastward across the western U.S. on Wednesday, as a trough and an associated cold front move southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon from Illinois southward into western Tennessee. A strong wind gust are two will be possible along this narrow north-to-south corridor. However, no appreciable severe threat is expected. Elsewhere, thunderstorm development will be possible near the coasts of southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana. Scattered storms will also be possible over parts of the Florida Peninsula. No severe threat is expected.
..Broyles.. 11/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Thursday, November 12
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, November 13 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, November 14 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, November 15 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, November 16 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090737 SPC AC 090737
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CST Mon Nov 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
On Thursday/Day 4, an upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., as an associated cold front advances southeastward to near the Atlantic coasts of the Carolinas and Georgia. Thunderstorm development will be possible along the front and ahead of the trough in the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated strong wind gusts will be possible, but any potential for severe gusts should be minimal due to weak instability. From the weekend into early next week, a large area of high pressure is forecast to move across the central and eastern U.S. In response, a cold and dry airmass is expected to settle in over much of the continental U.S., which will be unfavorable for thunderstorm development in most areas.
..Broyles.. 11/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, November 13
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, November 13 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, November 14 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, November 15 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, November 16 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090737 SPC AC 090737
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CST Mon Nov 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
On Thursday/Day 4, an upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., as an associated cold front advances southeastward to near the Atlantic coasts of the Carolinas and Georgia. Thunderstorm development will be possible along the front and ahead of the trough in the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated strong wind gusts will be possible, but any potential for severe gusts should be minimal due to weak instability. From the weekend into early next week, a large area of high pressure is forecast to move across the central and eastern U.S. In response, a cold and dry airmass is expected to settle in over much of the continental U.S., which will be unfavorable for thunderstorm development in most areas.
..Broyles.. 11/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, November 14
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, November 13 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, November 14 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, November 15 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, November 16 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090737 SPC AC 090737
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CST Mon Nov 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
On Thursday/Day 4, an upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., as an associated cold front advances southeastward to near the Atlantic coasts of the Carolinas and Georgia. Thunderstorm development will be possible along the front and ahead of the trough in the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated strong wind gusts will be possible, but any potential for severe gusts should be minimal due to weak instability. From the weekend into early next week, a large area of high pressure is forecast to move across the central and eastern U.S. In response, a cold and dry airmass is expected to settle in over much of the continental U.S., which will be unfavorable for thunderstorm development in most areas.
..Broyles.. 11/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, November 15
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, November 13 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, November 14 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, November 15 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, November 16 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090737 SPC AC 090737
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CST Mon Nov 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
On Thursday/Day 4, an upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., as an associated cold front advances southeastward to near the Atlantic coasts of the Carolinas and Georgia. Thunderstorm development will be possible along the front and ahead of the trough in the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated strong wind gusts will be possible, but any potential for severe gusts should be minimal due to weak instability. From the weekend into early next week, a large area of high pressure is forecast to move across the central and eastern U.S. In response, a cold and dry airmass is expected to settle in over much of the continental U.S., which will be unfavorable for thunderstorm development in most areas.
..Broyles.. 11/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, November 16
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, November 13 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, November 14 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, November 15 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, November 16 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090737 SPC AC 090737
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CST Mon Nov 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
On Thursday/Day 4, an upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., as an associated cold front advances southeastward to near the Atlantic coasts of the Carolinas and Georgia. Thunderstorm development will be possible along the front and ahead of the trough in the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated strong wind gusts will be possible, but any potential for severe gusts should be minimal due to weak instability. From the weekend into early next week, a large area of high pressure is forecast to move across the central and eastern U.S. In response, a cold and dry airmass is expected to settle in over much of the continental U.S., which will be unfavorable for thunderstorm development in most areas.
..Broyles.. 11/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, November 9
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, November 10
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Wednesday, November 11
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Thursday, November 12
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, November 13
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, November 14
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, November 15
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, November 16
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Your Severe Outlook
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