Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, May 19
Outlook Summary
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible today from the southern Plains northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley and lower Great Lakes. Damaging winds and hail will be the primary threats. A greater threat for large hail is expected in the southern High Plains.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 190543
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY…AND LOWER GREAT LAKES
### SUMMARY
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible today from the southern Plains northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley and lower Great Lakes. Damaging winds and hail will be the primary threats. A greater threat for large hail is expected in the southern High Plains.
Ozarks/Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys/Lower Great Lakes
At mid-levels today, a shortwave trough and an associated 75 to 90 knot jet streak will move northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward through the lower Missouri Valley and Great Lakes. Along and ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will mostly be in the mid to upper 60s F. This will contribute to the development of moderate instability over much of the pre-frontal airmass. Increasing low-level convergence near the front and warming surface temperatures will support scattered thunderstorm development by afternoon. Along much of the front, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be between 25 to 35 knots, suggesting that enough shear will be present for organized storms. The potential for severe wind gusts will be greatest along the leading edge of line segments that form in areas that heat up the most. The severe threat is expected to persist into the evening.
Southern Plains
A mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward into the southern High Plains today. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass will be located over much of the southern Plains with surface dewpoints the upper 60s and lower 70s F. In response to surface heating, moderate instability will develop over much of the moist sector, with MLCAPE likely peaking in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range in many areas. Increasing low-level convergence near the front will lead to thunderstorm development during the afternoon. The greatest convective coverage is forecast across west-central and north-central Texas, where low-level flow will be maximized. Ahead of the developing storms, forecast soundings by late afternoon show moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates. This environment will support a potential for supercells with large hail, mainly with cells in the stronger instability that can remain discrete. A threat for severe wind gusts is also expected, with this threat increasing if a cold pool can organize during the late afternoon or evening. The severe threat could impact parts of the Texas Hill Country and east Texas later in the evening, before the threat becomes more isolated.
..Broyles/Squitieri.. 05/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Wednesday, May 20
Outlook Summary
Scattered thunderstorm activity across the Mid-Atlantic region Wednesday may pose a risk for severe wind and hail. Large hail will be possible with isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms developing over the southern High Plains into southwest Texas.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 190548
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS
### SUMMARY
Scattered thunderstorm activity across the Mid-Atlantic region Wednesday may pose a risk for severe wind and hail. Large hail will be possible with isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms developing over the southern High Plains into southwest Texas.
Synopsis
A trough will continue to lift northward into Canada D2/Wednesday, with a cold front extending from the Northeast southward across the southern Ohio Valley into the lower Mississippi Valley and westward into southwestern Texas and eastern New Mexico. Scattered strong to severe storms are expected near the front in the mid Atlantic and near the high terrain of western Texas.
Mid-Atlantic
Scattered showers and storms are expected along the cold front Wednesday afternoon across portions of the Mid-Atlantic. The downstream air mass will include a narrow plume of weak to moderate instability. Though deep layer shear and mid-level lapse rates will be marginal, steep low level lapse rates will support a few instances of strong to severe winds.
Southwest Texas and eastern New Mexico
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop near the high terrain within the upslope flow regime across western Texas and eastern New Mexico Wednesday afternoon. Forecast soundings depict sufficient deep layer shear to support supercells. Moderate to strong instability and steep low to mid-level lapse rates will support potential for large hail and a few occurrences of severe winds.
..Thornton.. 05/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Thursday, May 21
Outlook Summary
Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected across the northern Rockies, portions of the southern Florida peninsula, and from the southern Plains to portions of the Southeast on Thursday. Severe storms are not expected.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 190723
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected across the northern Rockies, portions of the southern Florida peninsula, and from the southern Plains to portions of the Southeast on Thursday. Severe storms are not expected.
Discussion
A few thunderstorms will be possible near the upper low across Montana. Limited moisture and weak instability will limit the severe risk in this region.
A stationary front will extend from far southern Texas into the Mississippi Valley and northward to the Carolinas. Scattered thunderstorms are expected along and south of the front across the Southeast and mid Atlantic. Additional afternoon thunderstorms will develop across the southern Florida peninsula with the sea breeze circulation. Storms will likely be sub severe, given weak flow/shear for organization across these regions.
Across the southern High Plains, widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected near the front and across portions of the high terrain from western Texas into eastern New Mexico/southeastern Colorado. Moisture will become more limited with northern extent in New Mexico and Colorado, with dew points in the low 50s. A few stronger storms may produce instances of strong winds and small hail. Overall, the stronger mid-level flow should remain displaced from the better moisture leading to low confidence in a more organized severe threat.
..Thornton.. 05/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Friday, May 22
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, May 21 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Friday, May 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, May 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, May 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, May 25 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 181358 SPC AC 181358
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0858 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Thursday - D5/Friday
On D4/Thursday, a stationary front will extend across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley and east to the Carolinas. A few stronger thunderstorms may develop south of this boundary, however, the strongest upper-level flow will be displaced to the north, limiting confidence in a more organized severe threat.
Moist southerly return flow will begin across the southern/central Plains into the weekend. Modest westerly flow across the dryline on D5/Friday may support some potential for severe storms. Overall, forcing for ascent will remain limited and there is low confidence in including a severe risk area at this time.
D6/Saturday-D8/Monday
Through the end of the extended period, height rises are expected across the central US as a high amplitude ridge settles in from the west. While moisture will continue to move northward into the central/northern Plains, generally weak flow and subsidence will keep severe potential low.
..Thornton.. 05/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, May 23
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, May 21 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Friday, May 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, May 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, May 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, May 25 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 181358 SPC AC 181358
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0858 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Thursday - D5/Friday
On D4/Thursday, a stationary front will extend across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley and east to the Carolinas. A few stronger thunderstorms may develop south of this boundary, however, the strongest upper-level flow will be displaced to the north, limiting confidence in a more organized severe threat.
Moist southerly return flow will begin across the southern/central Plains into the weekend. Modest westerly flow across the dryline on D5/Friday may support some potential for severe storms. Overall, forcing for ascent will remain limited and there is low confidence in including a severe risk area at this time.
D6/Saturday-D8/Monday
Through the end of the extended period, height rises are expected across the central US as a high amplitude ridge settles in from the west. While moisture will continue to move northward into the central/northern Plains, generally weak flow and subsidence will keep severe potential low.
..Thornton.. 05/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, May 24
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, May 21 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Friday, May 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, May 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, May 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, May 25 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 181358 SPC AC 181358
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0858 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Thursday - D5/Friday
On D4/Thursday, a stationary front will extend across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley and east to the Carolinas. A few stronger thunderstorms may develop south of this boundary, however, the strongest upper-level flow will be displaced to the north, limiting confidence in a more organized severe threat.
Moist southerly return flow will begin across the southern/central Plains into the weekend. Modest westerly flow across the dryline on D5/Friday may support some potential for severe storms. Overall, forcing for ascent will remain limited and there is low confidence in including a severe risk area at this time.
D6/Saturday-D8/Monday
Through the end of the extended period, height rises are expected across the central US as a high amplitude ridge settles in from the west. While moisture will continue to move northward into the central/northern Plains, generally weak flow and subsidence will keep severe potential low.
..Thornton.. 05/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, May 25
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, May 21 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Friday, May 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, May 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, May 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, May 25 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 181358 SPC AC 181358
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0858 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Thursday - D5/Friday
On D4/Thursday, a stationary front will extend across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley and east to the Carolinas. A few stronger thunderstorms may develop south of this boundary, however, the strongest upper-level flow will be displaced to the north, limiting confidence in a more organized severe threat.
Moist southerly return flow will begin across the southern/central Plains into the weekend. Modest westerly flow across the dryline on D5/Friday may support some potential for severe storms. Overall, forcing for ascent will remain limited and there is low confidence in including a severe risk area at this time.
D6/Saturday-D8/Monday
Through the end of the extended period, height rises are expected across the central US as a high amplitude ridge settles in from the west. While moisture will continue to move northward into the central/northern Plains, generally weak flow and subsidence will keep severe potential low.
..Thornton.. 05/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, May 19
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Wednesday, May 20
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Thursday, May 21
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Friday, May 22
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, May 23
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, May 24
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, May 25
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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