Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, August 19
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this afternoon across the mid Mississippi Valley. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible from the lower to mid Missouri Valley westward into the Great Plains. A few severe gusts could also occur in southern Arizona and in the Southeast.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 190557
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this afternoon across the mid Mississippi Valley. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible from the lower to mid Missouri Valley westward into the Great Plains. A few severe gusts could also occur in southern Arizona and in the Southeast.
Mid Mississippi Valley
At mid-levels, a shortwave trough and an associated speed max will move southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley today. At the surface, an outflow boundary associated with morning convection will move southward into southern Missouri by midday. To the north of the boundary, surface dewpoints will be in the 70s F. Moderate instability is expected to develop in areas that are not impacted by morning outflow. As low-level convergence becomes focused near the boundary during the late afternoon and early evening, isolated to scattered convective initiation is expected. From this convection, thunderstorms will likely develop and move eastward across the mid Mississippi. One or two organized line segments will be possible during the evening.
Early evening RAP forecast soundings in south-central Missouri, where the strongest instability is expected, have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots with precipitable water near 2 inches. MLCAPE is expected to peak in the 2500 to 3000 J/kg range with 0-3 km lapse rates around 7.5 C/km. This environment will support a severe threat with supercells and multicell line segments. Severe wind gusts and hail will be the primary hazards. The severe threat could persist into the mid to late evening, with storms that are maintained by a low-level jet that is forecast to strengthen in southeast Missouri.
Great Plains
Mid-level northwesterly flow will be in place across the Great Plains today. At the surface, dewpoints in the 60s and 70s F will contribute to moderate destabilization over much of the region. During the afternoon, isolated storm development will be possible within the unstable airmass from the lower to mid Missouri Valley southwestward into the central Plains. A few severe gusts and hail will be possible but the storms will remain isolated due to limited large-scale ascent. The greater convective coverage is expected further south in the higher terrain of eastern Colorado and northeast New Mexico. Thunderstorms will likely form due to topographic forcing during the mid to late afternoon and move east-southeastward into the lower elevations. Ahead of these storms, RAP forecast soundings at 00Z in the northern Texas Panhandle and southwest Kansas have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots with 0-3 km lapse rates near 8 C/km, and surface-temperature dewpoint spreads exceeding 30 degrees. This environment will support an isolated potential for severe gusts.
Southern Arizona
Low-level moisture will be in place today across southern Arizona, where surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 50s F. As surface temperature warm, isolated to scattered convective initiation will occur in the higher terrain of southeastern Arizona. These storms will move west-southwestward toward an axis of instability. Steep low to mid-level lapse rates and large temperature-dewpoint spreads will support and isolated potential for severe gusts late this afternoon into early evening.
Southeast
A very moist airmass will be in place today across the Southeast, where surface dewpoints will be in the 70s F. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability will develop over much of the region. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and move southward across parts of Mississippi and western Alabama. The deep low-level moisture combined with steep low-level lapse rates will support an isolated wind-damage threat during the mid to late afternoon.
..Broyles/Thornton.. 08/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Thursday, August 20
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe storms are possible Thursday across parts of the Mid Atlantic, from Nebraska into Wisconsin, and over parts of the Mid South.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 190544
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS…THE MID SOUTH…AND THE MID ATLANTIC
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe storms are possible Thursday across parts of the Mid Atlantic, from Nebraska into Wisconsin, and over parts of the Mid South.
From NE into northwest WI
Mid to upper level northwest winds will increase across the region, with 30-40 kt at 500 mb common. At the surface, low pressure will develop into northern MN with a cold front extending southwestward across eastern SD and into northern NE by 00Z.
Although high pressure will exist east of this area, pockets of 60s dewpoints will still exist ahead of the front, and, temperatures aloft will be cool. Daytime heating will thus support destabilization along the front, with scattered storms from northeast MN/northern WI into NE. Favorable deep-layer shear around 40 kt along with the cool air aloft will support cells capable of hail. Isolated hail near 2.00" cannot be ruled out over NE, but this will depend on actual moisture return and potential for stronger than forecast instability.
Mid Atlantic
Weak low pressure is forecast to translate eastward along a front which will move into southern PA/central NJ, while another surface low develops into eastern VA/northeast NC with a increasing convergence there. Across this small warm sector, upper 60s to 70s F dewpoints will lead to a zone of moderate instability, and scattered storms should develop from southeast PA/NJ into MD, DE, and eastern VA. Additional activity may develop southwestward into northern NC. 20-30 kt mean winds above 700 mb will support clusters of cells moving southeastward during the late afternoon, with strong to locally severe wind gusts possible. Isolated marginal hail cannot be ruled out as upper level temperatures will be cool.
Mid South
A surface trough will develop from the Red River eastward across AR and into northern MS, with a weak wind shift providing a focus for storm development. CAM guidance continues to show a cluster of storms developing after 21Z over northern MS into southwest TN. The environment will be very warm and moist, with temperatures near 100 F and precipitable water values near 2.00". Shear will be weak, and storms are likely to produce strong outflow winds, possibly severe downbursts. Isolated marginal hail cannot be ruled out as temperatures aloft will be relatively cool.
..Jewell.. 08/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Friday, August 21
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, August 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, August 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, August 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, August 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, August 25 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180824 SPC AC 180824
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
For the Fri/D4 to Tue/D8 period, an upper ridge is forecast to expand from the Four Corners states into the Southern Plains, with northwest flow aloft over the Northern Plains shifting east across Midwest and into the Northeast.
On Fri/D4, scattered storms may occur across the Central Plains and Cornbelt, with areas of moisture and instability beneath the 30-40 kt northwest flow regime favor scattered hail or strong wind gusts. Predictability is low due to the likelihood of ongoing storms or convective systems early in the day, which may affect air mass quality and effective boundary positioning. However, the NE/KS/IA/MO region appears to be the most likely area for an eventual risk area.
Also on Fri/D4, storms are again expected over parts of the Mid Atlantic to Carolinas, where 25 kt southwest flow in the midlevels and a surface trough will support scattered storm clusters producing locally damaging gusts. Areas of ongoing storms or outflows from the previous day's convection may have an impact here as well as far as the most favorable zones for additional severe storms.
There may also be some potential on Sat/D5 to Sun/D6 over parts of the Mid Atlantic as cooling aloft with an upper trough moves across the area. Timing of this trough will be critical, as will the movement of the associated cold front.
..Jewell.. 08/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, August 22
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, August 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, August 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, August 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, August 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, August 25 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180824 SPC AC 180824
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
For the Fri/D4 to Tue/D8 period, an upper ridge is forecast to expand from the Four Corners states into the Southern Plains, with northwest flow aloft over the Northern Plains shifting east across Midwest and into the Northeast.
On Fri/D4, scattered storms may occur across the Central Plains and Cornbelt, with areas of moisture and instability beneath the 30-40 kt northwest flow regime favor scattered hail or strong wind gusts. Predictability is low due to the likelihood of ongoing storms or convective systems early in the day, which may affect air mass quality and effective boundary positioning. However, the NE/KS/IA/MO region appears to be the most likely area for an eventual risk area.
Also on Fri/D4, storms are again expected over parts of the Mid Atlantic to Carolinas, where 25 kt southwest flow in the midlevels and a surface trough will support scattered storm clusters producing locally damaging gusts. Areas of ongoing storms or outflows from the previous day's convection may have an impact here as well as far as the most favorable zones for additional severe storms.
There may also be some potential on Sat/D5 to Sun/D6 over parts of the Mid Atlantic as cooling aloft with an upper trough moves across the area. Timing of this trough will be critical, as will the movement of the associated cold front.
..Jewell.. 08/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, August 23
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, August 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, August 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, August 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, August 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, August 25 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180824 SPC AC 180824
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
For the Fri/D4 to Tue/D8 period, an upper ridge is forecast to expand from the Four Corners states into the Southern Plains, with northwest flow aloft over the Northern Plains shifting east across Midwest and into the Northeast.
On Fri/D4, scattered storms may occur across the Central Plains and Cornbelt, with areas of moisture and instability beneath the 30-40 kt northwest flow regime favor scattered hail or strong wind gusts. Predictability is low due to the likelihood of ongoing storms or convective systems early in the day, which may affect air mass quality and effective boundary positioning. However, the NE/KS/IA/MO region appears to be the most likely area for an eventual risk area.
Also on Fri/D4, storms are again expected over parts of the Mid Atlantic to Carolinas, where 25 kt southwest flow in the midlevels and a surface trough will support scattered storm clusters producing locally damaging gusts. Areas of ongoing storms or outflows from the previous day's convection may have an impact here as well as far as the most favorable zones for additional severe storms.
There may also be some potential on Sat/D5 to Sun/D6 over parts of the Mid Atlantic as cooling aloft with an upper trough moves across the area. Timing of this trough will be critical, as will the movement of the associated cold front.
..Jewell.. 08/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, August 24
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, August 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, August 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, August 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, August 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, August 25 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180824 SPC AC 180824
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
For the Fri/D4 to Tue/D8 period, an upper ridge is forecast to expand from the Four Corners states into the Southern Plains, with northwest flow aloft over the Northern Plains shifting east across Midwest and into the Northeast.
On Fri/D4, scattered storms may occur across the Central Plains and Cornbelt, with areas of moisture and instability beneath the 30-40 kt northwest flow regime favor scattered hail or strong wind gusts. Predictability is low due to the likelihood of ongoing storms or convective systems early in the day, which may affect air mass quality and effective boundary positioning. However, the NE/KS/IA/MO region appears to be the most likely area for an eventual risk area.
Also on Fri/D4, storms are again expected over parts of the Mid Atlantic to Carolinas, where 25 kt southwest flow in the midlevels and a surface trough will support scattered storm clusters producing locally damaging gusts. Areas of ongoing storms or outflows from the previous day's convection may have an impact here as well as far as the most favorable zones for additional severe storms.
There may also be some potential on Sat/D5 to Sun/D6 over parts of the Mid Atlantic as cooling aloft with an upper trough moves across the area. Timing of this trough will be critical, as will the movement of the associated cold front.
..Jewell.. 08/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, August 25
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, August 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, August 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, August 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, August 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, August 25 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180824 SPC AC 180824
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
For the Fri/D4 to Tue/D8 period, an upper ridge is forecast to expand from the Four Corners states into the Southern Plains, with northwest flow aloft over the Northern Plains shifting east across Midwest and into the Northeast.
On Fri/D4, scattered storms may occur across the Central Plains and Cornbelt, with areas of moisture and instability beneath the 30-40 kt northwest flow regime favor scattered hail or strong wind gusts. Predictability is low due to the likelihood of ongoing storms or convective systems early in the day, which may affect air mass quality and effective boundary positioning. However, the NE/KS/IA/MO region appears to be the most likely area for an eventual risk area.
Also on Fri/D4, storms are again expected over parts of the Mid Atlantic to Carolinas, where 25 kt southwest flow in the midlevels and a surface trough will support scattered storm clusters producing locally damaging gusts. Areas of ongoing storms or outflows from the previous day's convection may have an impact here as well as far as the most favorable zones for additional severe storms.
There may also be some potential on Sat/D5 to Sun/D6 over parts of the Mid Atlantic as cooling aloft with an upper trough moves across the area. Timing of this trough will be critical, as will the movement of the associated cold front.
..Jewell.. 08/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, August 19
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Thursday, August 20
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Friday, August 21
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, August 22
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, August 23
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, August 24
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, August 25
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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