Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, August 7
Outlook Summary
Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds are expected across portions of the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon. More isolated severe thunderstorms are expected from the mid-Missouri Valley into the Lake Superior region as well as across parts of the southern High Plains and central Plains.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 070551
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Fri Aug 07 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
### SUMMARY
Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds are expected across portions of the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon. More isolated severe thunderstorms are expected from the mid-Missouri Valley into the Lake Superior region as well as across parts of the southern High Plains and central Plains.
Synopsis
00 UTC upper-air analyses and latest GOES water-vapor imagery depict several perturbations within a low-amplitude upper trough in place over the central CONUS. The first of these perturbations is analyzed over the mid-MS Valley and is expected to migrate east towards the Mid-Atlantic region by mid-afternoon. A more pronounced shortwave trough is evident over central Canada into the northern Plains. This feature, along with an attendant surface low and trailing cold front, will move eastward through the day, reaching the Great Lakes region by tonight. Strong to severe thunderstorm chances will primarily be associated with these synoptic features, though more localized corridors of strong/severe thunderstorms may emerge across the southern High Plains and parts of the Ozarks associated with outflow boundaries from ongoing convection.
Mid-Atlantic
The weak upper perturbation currently over the MS Valley is forecast to reach the central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic region by mid-afternoon. Strong heating of an seasonally moist air mass (dewpoints in the low to mid 70s) will compensate for otherwise meager mid-level lapse rates and support MLCAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg with minimal capping by early afternoon. A combination of weak synoptic lift aided by localized orographic ascent should promote isolated to scattered thunderstorm development during the 18-20 UTC period. Most CAM guidance depicts a reasonably strong signal for thunderstorm clustering and upscale growth as storms spread northeast towards the I-95 corridor around peak heating. Although winds through the lowest 2-3 km will remain fairly modest, steep low-level lapse rates and around 25 knots of effective bulk shear should promote loosely organized clusters/lines with embedded swaths of damaging winds. ### Mid-Missouri Valley into the Lake Superior region
Thunderstorm development along the cold front is expected early this morning, possibly as early as 12-14 UTC across portions of eastern MN. This early activity will likely be elevated in nature, but 30-35 knot mid-level flow should support adequate hodograph elongation for a few organized cells capable of severe hail. With time, diurnal heating/destabilization downstream and persistent forcing along the front should promote steady intensification and upscale growth of convection with a transition to primarily a wind risk across WI and the Upper Peninsula of MI. Further south, more isolated thunderstorm coverage across southern MN, IA, and eastern NE may support a supercell or two with an attendant threat for large hail as well as severe wind.
Southern High Plains into the Ozarks
Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop across northeast NM into the TX Panhandle this afternoon - driven by either orographic ascent along the Sange de Cristo mountains and/or the Raton Mesa or lift along a residual outflow boundary associated with an ongoing, but fairly confined, MCS across the northern TX Panhandle (as of 06 UTC). Regardless of the forcing mechanism, convection developing across this region will mature in an environment featuring fairly weak wind shear, but a deeply-mixed boundary layer conducive for severe downbursts. Despite considerable variance in storm placement and coverage in latest CAM ensembles, the consistent signal for severe downbursts warrants low-end severe wind probabilities.
Further east into eastern OK and the Ozarks, a focused corridor of thunderstorms will likely emerge on the outflow boundary of a convective cluster developing across eastern KS (as of 06 UTC). Some CAM solutions hint that sporadic large hail and/or damaging downbursts will be possible with this activity, but considerable uncertainty on where and how intense this activity will be limits confidence on introducing additional risk areas.
Nebraska/South Dakota
Elevated convection is expected to develop across portions of northern NE and southern SD during the overnight hours tonight as isentropic ascent increases in tandem with a modest intensification of a low-level jet. Low-level moistening through 850 mb under a plume of 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates should promote a adequate buoyancy few robust updrafts (though confidence in storm coverage is limited due to the weak nature of the forcing for ascent). However, strong shear across the region will likely promote organized convection, including a supercell or two, capable of producing large hail.
..Moore/Marsh.. 08/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Saturday, August 8
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern Plains southeastward into the lower to mid Missouri Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 070557
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Fri Aug 07 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern Plains southeastward into the lower to mid Missouri Valley.
Central and Northern Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley
At mid-levels, northwesterly flow will be in place on Saturday over much of the north-central U.S. as the southern edge of a jet streak moves across the northern Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward through the Dakotas. To the south of the front, a moist axis is forecast to be in place from central South Dakota southward into southern Nebraska and eastward into north-central Missouri. Moderate to strong instability appears likely to develop along the moist axis by afternoon. Large-scale ascent will be relatively weak throughout the region which will keep convection isolated. The most favorable areas for isolated thunderstorm development could be over central and eastern Nebraska, where some models focus low-level convergence near a low-level jet in the evening. Additional storms could develop along a moisture gradient in northern Missouri. NAM forecast soundings from Nebraska into southern South Dakota in the late afternoon have 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 45 knot range with steep low-level lapse rates. This could support supercells and organized multicells capable of severe wind gusts and hail. Isolated severe gusts could also occur southeastward along and near the instability gradient in northern Missouri.
..Broyles.. 08/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Sunday, August 9
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, August 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, August 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, August 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, August 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, August 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060800 SPC AC 060800
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 AM CDT Thu Aug 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
For the Sunday/D4 through Thursday/D8 period, an elongated zone of thunderstorm/wind potential will exist from the northern Plains across parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes, and possibly extending into parts of the Northeast. Predictability is low for this pattern given the likelihood of ongoing corridors of storms early each day, and variability with the position of the elongated west to east front. However, the presence of a very moist air mass, with possibly strong instability to the south, combined with possible waves rotating around the large-scale upper trough over Canada, may yield storm corridors with damaging wind potential. One or more areas may be denoted in later outlooks as the events near in time.
At this time, rough areas of interest include the northern Plains to Upper Midwest on Sunday/D4, and portions of the Great Lakes/Midwest on Monday/D5.
..Jewell.. 08/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, August 10
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, August 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, August 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, August 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, August 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, August 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060800 SPC AC 060800
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 AM CDT Thu Aug 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
For the Sunday/D4 through Thursday/D8 period, an elongated zone of thunderstorm/wind potential will exist from the northern Plains across parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes, and possibly extending into parts of the Northeast. Predictability is low for this pattern given the likelihood of ongoing corridors of storms early each day, and variability with the position of the elongated west to east front. However, the presence of a very moist air mass, with possibly strong instability to the south, combined with possible waves rotating around the large-scale upper trough over Canada, may yield storm corridors with damaging wind potential. One or more areas may be denoted in later outlooks as the events near in time.
At this time, rough areas of interest include the northern Plains to Upper Midwest on Sunday/D4, and portions of the Great Lakes/Midwest on Monday/D5.
..Jewell.. 08/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, August 11
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, August 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, August 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, August 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, August 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, August 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060800 SPC AC 060800
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 AM CDT Thu Aug 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
For the Sunday/D4 through Thursday/D8 period, an elongated zone of thunderstorm/wind potential will exist from the northern Plains across parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes, and possibly extending into parts of the Northeast. Predictability is low for this pattern given the likelihood of ongoing corridors of storms early each day, and variability with the position of the elongated west to east front. However, the presence of a very moist air mass, with possibly strong instability to the south, combined with possible waves rotating around the large-scale upper trough over Canada, may yield storm corridors with damaging wind potential. One or more areas may be denoted in later outlooks as the events near in time.
At this time, rough areas of interest include the northern Plains to Upper Midwest on Sunday/D4, and portions of the Great Lakes/Midwest on Monday/D5.
..Jewell.. 08/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, August 12
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, August 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, August 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, August 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, August 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, August 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060800 SPC AC 060800
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 AM CDT Thu Aug 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
For the Sunday/D4 through Thursday/D8 period, an elongated zone of thunderstorm/wind potential will exist from the northern Plains across parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes, and possibly extending into parts of the Northeast. Predictability is low for this pattern given the likelihood of ongoing corridors of storms early each day, and variability with the position of the elongated west to east front. However, the presence of a very moist air mass, with possibly strong instability to the south, combined with possible waves rotating around the large-scale upper trough over Canada, may yield storm corridors with damaging wind potential. One or more areas may be denoted in later outlooks as the events near in time.
At this time, rough areas of interest include the northern Plains to Upper Midwest on Sunday/D4, and portions of the Great Lakes/Midwest on Monday/D5.
..Jewell.. 08/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, August 13
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, August 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, August 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, August 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, August 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, August 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060800 SPC AC 060800
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 AM CDT Thu Aug 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
For the Sunday/D4 through Thursday/D8 period, an elongated zone of thunderstorm/wind potential will exist from the northern Plains across parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes, and possibly extending into parts of the Northeast. Predictability is low for this pattern given the likelihood of ongoing corridors of storms early each day, and variability with the position of the elongated west to east front. However, the presence of a very moist air mass, with possibly strong instability to the south, combined with possible waves rotating around the large-scale upper trough over Canada, may yield storm corridors with damaging wind potential. One or more areas may be denoted in later outlooks as the events near in time.
At this time, rough areas of interest include the northern Plains to Upper Midwest on Sunday/D4, and portions of the Great Lakes/Midwest on Monday/D5.
..Jewell.. 08/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, August 7
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Saturday, August 8
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Sunday, August 9
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, August 10
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, August 11
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, August 12
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, August 13
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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