Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Saturday, June 20

Sunday, June 21

Monday, June 22

Tuesday, June 23

Wednesday, June 24

Thursday, June 25

Friday, June 26

Saturday, June 27

Outlook for Saturday, June 20

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the central Plains vicinity this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, severe winds (some 75+ mph), and tornadoes are possible.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 5%

wind 30%

hail 30%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 200550

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the central Plains vicinity this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, severe winds (some 75+ mph), and tornadoes are possible.

Central Plains

A low-amplitude mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move from the Intermountain West toward the central/northern High Plains through the period. In response to this system, a lee cyclone is forecast to deepen across eastern CO. A surface front initially draped from eastern CO into KS will move northward through the day, with its northward extent influenced by morning elevated convection that may persist through much of the day across parts of central NE. Rich low-level moisture will return in tandem with the front, with low/mid 60s F dewpoints reaching into parts of southern NE and northeast CO, and upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints spreading into parts of central/southeast KS.

Relatively steep midlevel lapse rates spreading atop the returning moisture will result in moderate to strong destabilization, as MLCAPE increases to near/above 2000 J/kg across parts of the central High Plains. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by late afternoon from southeast WY and the NE Panhandle into eastern CO, with at least isolated storms possible farther east, along and just north of the surface front. Veering wind profiles and effective shear of 40+ kt will be favorable for organized storms, including supercells.

A threat for large to very large hail and localized severe gusts will accompany initial supercell development. Some tornado threat could also evolve, especially with any supercells near the front that move into an environment of richer moisture and stronger low-level shear (associated with a modest nocturnal low-level jet) during the evening. A tendency toward upscale growth is expected with time along and north of the surface front, resulting in an increasing severe-wind threat, with gusts above 75 mph possible. Some damaging-wind and brief-tornado threat could continue through the end of the period into east-central/southeast KS, where MLCINH will remain minimal due to very rich low-level moisture.

Only minor adjustments have been made to the Enhanced Risk, though more substantial changes may eventually be needed, depending on the influence of early-day convection across parts of the threat area.

Northern UT/southeast ID into western/central WY

As a mid/upper-level shortwave trough overspreads the region during the afternoon, scattered high-based thunderstorm development is expected from northeast UT/southeast ID into western WY. Isolated downbursts will be possible with initial development, and some outflow aggregation could result in localized strong to severe wind swaths from late afternoon into early evening, as convection spreads eastward.

Parts of TX into the Southeast and Florida

Scattered to widespread convection is again expected within a very moist (PW near/above 2 inches) environment from central/eastern TX into parts of the Southeast and Florida. Localized wet microbursts will again be possible, though deep-layer shear will generally be weak. Organized severe potential appears too nebulous to add wind probabilities at this time. A Level-1/Marginal Risk may eventually be needed for parts of the region, if trends support any mesoscale corridors of somewhat more organized threat.

Western PA

Relatively low-topped convection may develop across parts of western PA and vicinity this afternoon, within a broad west-northwesterly flow regime. Buoyancy will remain weak, but modestly enhanced flow and steep low-level lapse rates could support localized strong gusts. The magnitude of the threat appears too limited for wind probabilities at this time.

..Dean/Squitieri.. 06/20/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

← back to overview

Outlook for Sunday, June 21

Outlook Summary

Severe storms are possible along a frontal zone from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the central High Plains on Sunday. Large hail, severe winds, and tornadoes will be possible.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 5%

wind 15%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 200558

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO PARTS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

### SUMMARY

Severe storms are possible along a frontal zone from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the central High Plains on Sunday. Large hail, severe winds, and tornadoes will be possible.

Synopsis

A series of mid-level shortwave troughs will move through the central portion of the CONUS along a surface frontal zone. The primary surface low is expected to settle somewhere near the Texas Panhandle on Sunday with a weaker, perhaps convectively enhanced, surface low across the Midwest.

Ozarks into the Lower Ohio River Valley

An expansive MCS will likely be present across eastern Kansas and into Missouri on Sunday morning. This MCS will continue east through the day and eventually into the Ohio Valley by the afternoon. An outflow boundary will likely be left in the wake of this MCS across Missouri and southern Illinois during the afternoon. The degree of airmass recovery within this region remains uncertain. Some guidance shows a secondary MCS moving into northeast Oklahoma and northern Arkansas, which may have implications on the upstream EML and the potential for clearing/recovery in the wake of the morning MCS. However, other guidance shows an EML advecting into the region and aiding in recovery during the afternoon/evening. A localized corridor with greater tornado threat likely exists along this boundary from eastern Missouri into southern Illinois and perhaps southwest Indiana, but too much uncertainty from prior storms precludes any higher tornado probabilities at this time.

Central High Plains Vicinity

Storms are forecast to develop within the upslope flow across western Kansas by mid-afternoon. Easterly surface flow, combined with strengthening flow aloft (in excess of 50 knots above 400mb) will support supercell structures and the potential for large to very large hail. Storm motions will be relatively slow and thus, the storms likely won't make it that far east due to increasing inhibition with eastward extent. However, some guidance, most notably the 00Z HRW-NSSL WRF show some elevated supercells farther north into Nebraska toward the end of the period. If this persists in later guidance, an eventual eastward expansion of the Slight Risk may be needed.

Southern Kansas and Northern Oklahoma

Storms will continue to build westward during the day into eastern and perhaps central Kansas, and will congeal and shift southward through the evening. Overnight, as the low-level jet strengthens, expect storms to develop in an area with moderate to strong instability. These storms may pose some initial hail threat before growing upscale into an MCS with a wind threat across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma during the overnight hours.

..Bentley.. 06/20/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Monday, June 22

Outlook Summary

Isolated strong to severe storms are expected along a frontal zone that extends from the mid-Atlantic to the Mid-South and southern Plains and into the central High Plains on Monday.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 200738

Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID-SOUTH AND INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC.

CORRECTED FOR CAPITALIZATION IN THE SUMMARY

SUMMARY

Isolated strong to severe storms are expected along a frontal zone that extends from the mid-Atlantic to the Mid-South and southern Plains and into the central High Plains on Monday.

Synopsis

A flat ridge is forecast across the western CONUS with broad cyclonic flow from the southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic. Within this zone, several embedded mid-level shortwave troughs are expected, the strongest of which will move from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic during the day Monday. A weak surface low will likely be associated with this lead shortwave trough with an additional lee trough, likely across the southern High Plains. A frontal zone will extend between these 2 features and act as the primary focus for storm development through the period on Monday.

Central/southern Plains

A MCS should be ongoing at the beginning of the period across parts of Oklahoma on the nose of the low-level jet. An outflow boundary will likely extend westward from this MCS into parts of Northwest Texas and into the Texas Panhandle.

Very strong to extreme instability is forecast across the southern Plains on Monday with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s and steep lapse rates. Model guidance is consistent showing a weak mid-level shortwave trough emerging across the southern Plains by 00Z Tuesday with 30 to 35 knots of mid-level flow. The combination of this shortwave trough and the potential for an outflow boundary intersecting the dryline may result in a more focused area of severe potential Monday afternoon/evening. However, due to the mesoscale nature of this potential, confidence is not high enough to add a Slight Risk at this time.

Mid South

Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop ahead of the MCS across Oklahoma and Arkansas Monday morning. Given the very moist airmass, inhibition should be eroded by mid-day. Therefore, reintensification of the morning MCS or additional development to the east along the front (likely a combination of both) is expected from near the Red River to northern Mississippi. This strong instability, combined with modest shear, will support some damaging wind threat with a southeastward moving cluster of storms Monday afternoon/evening.

Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic

A moist airmass will move into the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic on Monday ahead of an eastward moving cold front. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak which will limit overall instability, but moderate shear and sufficient instability, combined with steep low-level lapse rates will support some damaging wind threat Monday afternoon/evening. In addition, a smaller area of greater low-level shear may exist closer to the surface low across northern Virginia and vicinity, which could have a localized region of greater tornado threat.

..Bentley.. 06/20/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

← back to overview

Outlook for Tuesday, June 23

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, June 23	predictability too low
Day 5	Wednesday, June 24	predictability too low
Day 6	Thursday, June 25	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, June 26	predictability too low
Day 8	Saturday, June 27	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200830 SPC AC 200830

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

DISCUSSION

An extended period of moderate northwesterly flow across the High Plains will lead to severe weather potential across the central High Plains. Upslope flow amid 30 to 50 knots mid-level winds should result in a severe weather environment, potentially on Tuesday, and particularly Wednesday and Thursday. The front will shift based on small-scale embedded shortwave disturbances and the prior day's convection, which will shift the location of the unstable warm sector. This results in uncertainty regarding the location of the threat for each day. This will continue to be monitored for potential areas to be added later.

Ridging will slide east across the Rockies and into the Plains by next weekend. Some severe weather threat may exist through this time as multiple embedded shortwave troughs will be within this region as instability increases across the Plains.

While it is mostly beyond Day 8, it is worth nothing that deterministic, ensemble, and AI guidance all indicate a strong jet streak and mid-level trough traversing the Rockies toward the end of next weekend and into early next week. A strong lee cyclone would accompany this with strong instability across the Plains. There is still uncertainty with the timing and location of the trough, but given the agreement in this general pattern change, a substantial severe weather threat seems possible by the end of next weekend and early into the following week across portions of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest.

..Bentley.. 06/20/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Wednesday, June 24

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, June 23	predictability too low
Day 5	Wednesday, June 24	predictability too low
Day 6	Thursday, June 25	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, June 26	predictability too low
Day 8	Saturday, June 27	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200830 SPC AC 200830

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

DISCUSSION

An extended period of moderate northwesterly flow across the High Plains will lead to severe weather potential across the central High Plains. Upslope flow amid 30 to 50 knots mid-level winds should result in a severe weather environment, potentially on Tuesday, and particularly Wednesday and Thursday. The front will shift based on small-scale embedded shortwave disturbances and the prior day's convection, which will shift the location of the unstable warm sector. This results in uncertainty regarding the location of the threat for each day. This will continue to be monitored for potential areas to be added later.

Ridging will slide east across the Rockies and into the Plains by next weekend. Some severe weather threat may exist through this time as multiple embedded shortwave troughs will be within this region as instability increases across the Plains.

While it is mostly beyond Day 8, it is worth nothing that deterministic, ensemble, and AI guidance all indicate a strong jet streak and mid-level trough traversing the Rockies toward the end of next weekend and into early next week. A strong lee cyclone would accompany this with strong instability across the Plains. There is still uncertainty with the timing and location of the trough, but given the agreement in this general pattern change, a substantial severe weather threat seems possible by the end of next weekend and early into the following week across portions of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest.

..Bentley.. 06/20/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Thursday, June 25

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, June 23	predictability too low
Day 5	Wednesday, June 24	predictability too low
Day 6	Thursday, June 25	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, June 26	predictability too low
Day 8	Saturday, June 27	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200830 SPC AC 200830

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

DISCUSSION

An extended period of moderate northwesterly flow across the High Plains will lead to severe weather potential across the central High Plains. Upslope flow amid 30 to 50 knots mid-level winds should result in a severe weather environment, potentially on Tuesday, and particularly Wednesday and Thursday. The front will shift based on small-scale embedded shortwave disturbances and the prior day's convection, which will shift the location of the unstable warm sector. This results in uncertainty regarding the location of the threat for each day. This will continue to be monitored for potential areas to be added later.

Ridging will slide east across the Rockies and into the Plains by next weekend. Some severe weather threat may exist through this time as multiple embedded shortwave troughs will be within this region as instability increases across the Plains.

While it is mostly beyond Day 8, it is worth nothing that deterministic, ensemble, and AI guidance all indicate a strong jet streak and mid-level trough traversing the Rockies toward the end of next weekend and into early next week. A strong lee cyclone would accompany this with strong instability across the Plains. There is still uncertainty with the timing and location of the trough, but given the agreement in this general pattern change, a substantial severe weather threat seems possible by the end of next weekend and early into the following week across portions of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest.

..Bentley.. 06/20/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Friday, June 26

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, June 23	predictability too low
Day 5	Wednesday, June 24	predictability too low
Day 6	Thursday, June 25	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, June 26	predictability too low
Day 8	Saturday, June 27	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200830 SPC AC 200830

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

DISCUSSION

An extended period of moderate northwesterly flow across the High Plains will lead to severe weather potential across the central High Plains. Upslope flow amid 30 to 50 knots mid-level winds should result in a severe weather environment, potentially on Tuesday, and particularly Wednesday and Thursday. The front will shift based on small-scale embedded shortwave disturbances and the prior day's convection, which will shift the location of the unstable warm sector. This results in uncertainty regarding the location of the threat for each day. This will continue to be monitored for potential areas to be added later.

Ridging will slide east across the Rockies and into the Plains by next weekend. Some severe weather threat may exist through this time as multiple embedded shortwave troughs will be within this region as instability increases across the Plains.

While it is mostly beyond Day 8, it is worth nothing that deterministic, ensemble, and AI guidance all indicate a strong jet streak and mid-level trough traversing the Rockies toward the end of next weekend and into early next week. A strong lee cyclone would accompany this with strong instability across the Plains. There is still uncertainty with the timing and location of the trough, but given the agreement in this general pattern change, a substantial severe weather threat seems possible by the end of next weekend and early into the following week across portions of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest.

..Bentley.. 06/20/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Saturday, June 27

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, June 23	predictability too low
Day 5	Wednesday, June 24	predictability too low
Day 6	Thursday, June 25	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, June 26	predictability too low
Day 8	Saturday, June 27	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200830 SPC AC 200830

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

DISCUSSION

An extended period of moderate northwesterly flow across the High Plains will lead to severe weather potential across the central High Plains. Upslope flow amid 30 to 50 knots mid-level winds should result in a severe weather environment, potentially on Tuesday, and particularly Wednesday and Thursday. The front will shift based on small-scale embedded shortwave disturbances and the prior day's convection, which will shift the location of the unstable warm sector. This results in uncertainty regarding the location of the threat for each day. This will continue to be monitored for potential areas to be added later.

Ridging will slide east across the Rockies and into the Plains by next weekend. Some severe weather threat may exist through this time as multiple embedded shortwave troughs will be within this region as instability increases across the Plains.

While it is mostly beyond Day 8, it is worth nothing that deterministic, ensemble, and AI guidance all indicate a strong jet streak and mid-level trough traversing the Rockies toward the end of next weekend and into early next week. A strong lee cyclone would accompany this with strong instability across the Plains. There is still uncertainty with the timing and location of the trough, but given the agreement in this general pattern change, a substantial severe weather threat seems possible by the end of next weekend and early into the following week across portions of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest.

..Bentley.. 06/20/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

National Risk Overview

Saturday, June 20: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 30%; WIND: 30%
Sunday, June 21: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Monday, June 22: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Tuesday, June 23: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, June 24: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, June 25: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, June 26: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, June 27: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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