Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, January 29
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 300043
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
Valid 300100Z - 301200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
Discussion
The general prevalence of cold/stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm development across the CONUS through tonight.
..Guyer.. 01/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Friday, January 30
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorm probabilities across the U.S. for Friday through Friday night appear less than 10 percent.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 291705
Day 2 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorm probabilities across the U.S. for Friday through Friday night appear less than 10 percent.
Discussion
There appears little change from prior model runs concerning the general mid/upper flow evolution through this period. A lower latitude blocking regime may become a bit more prominent near/offshore of southern California and the Baja California Peninsula, with larger-scale ridging being maintained within the primary belt of westerlies across the Pacific coast through Rockies. This is forecast to include short wave ridging building along the British Columbia coast, in the wake of a short wave trough progressing inland across the Canadian and adjacent northern U.S. Rockies, and downstream of a large upper trough and broad/deep cyclone migrating northeastward across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific.
Downstream, several short wave perturbations, including one vigorous digging impulse (emanating from the Hudson Bay vicinity), are forecast to consolidate into amplifying, positively tilted larger-scale troughing encompassing much of the lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf Basin through southern Atlantic Seaboard by late Friday night. It still appears that this will be accompanied by only weak surface frontal wave development along a strengthening low-level baroclinic zone across the northeastern Gulf Basin during the day Friday. There appears to be better consensus among the various models concerning modest cyclogenesis initiating along the same frontal zone offshore of the Carolina coast, and along a remnant surface frontal zone across and northeast of the Bahamas, by late Friday night.
Pacific Northwest
In the wake of a weak inland advancing frontal precipitation band, models indicate that a modest mid-level cold pool will overspread coastal areas during the day Friday. However, forecast soundings indicate that this will not lead to boundary-layer destabilization supportive of an appreciable risk for convection capable of producing lightning.
South Atlantic Seaboard
Both NAM and Rapid Refresh forecast soundings suggest that some further boundary-layer moistening is possible near southeastern Florida coastal areas and parts of the Keys, where near-surface flow may maintain an easterly component into the day Friday. It is possible that this may contribute conditionally unstable thermodynamic profiles in the lower- to mid-troposphere, which could become supportive of scattered showers. However, it still appears probable that a substantive warm/dry layer further aloft will suppress thunderstorm development, before the boundary-layer stabilizes in response to cooling/drying, as near-surface winds back to north/northwesterly.
Otherwise, through at least this period, it appears that destabilization supportive of thunderstorm development, associated with the developing low offshore of the Carolina coast, will remain focused near the Gulf Stream.
..Kerr.. 01/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Saturday, January 31
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorm probabilities across the U.S. for Saturday through Saturday night appear less than 10 percent.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 291902
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorm probabilities across the U.S. for Saturday through Saturday night appear less than 10 percent.
Discussion
Models suggest that short waves within split flow across the eastern Pacific into western North America will remain progressive Saturday through Saturday night. This includes a large and vigorous, but slowly weakening, mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone within the primary belt of westerlies, which are forecast to approach coastal areas from Alaska into the Pacific Northwest.
While colder mid-level temperatures, potentially supportive of weak boundary-layer destabilization, are forecast to remain offshore, the leading edge of stronger mid-level height falls may begin spreading inland of the Pacific coast during the latter half of the period. It appears an evolving mid-level high in the southern mid-latitudes will be forced inland across southern California into the southern Great Basin, with a trailing cyclonic circulation approaching northern Baja. However, models indicate that amplified downstream mid-level ridging will be maintained through at least this period across the Canadian Rockies and adjacent Prairies into the northern U.S. Intermountain Region and Rockies.
Digging short waves to the lee of this ridge will reinforce large-scale troughing east of the Rockies through the U.S. Atlantic Seaboard. However, the most prominent perturbation within this regime is forecast to pivot across and offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard. As it does, it appears that a broad offshore surface low will undergo notable deepening.
While considerable spread remains evident in association with developments across and offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard, it appears that this may include at least a couple of areas of significant embedded cyclogenesis by late Saturday night. One cyclone may continue to deepen along a frontal zone northeast of the Bahamas, across and north/northeast of the Bermuda vicinity, with higher moisture content generally confined to areas along and southeast of this track.
Along a stronger baroclinic zone closer to the Carolina coast, it appears that a much more rapidly deepening and stronger, but similarly compact, cyclone may develop to the east of the coastal waters. However, within a cooler/drier environment, models suggest that any destabilization potentially supportive of thunderstorm development may be confined to areas well offshore, near the Gulf Stream.
..Kerr.. 01/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Sunday, February 1
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, February 1 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, February 2 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, February 3 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, February 4 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, February 5 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290942 SPC AC 290942
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe weather potential is low through the extended forecast period. A strong upper low embedded within persistent broad-scale troughing over the East will move offshore this weekend with several other perturbations behind it. Continued northwesterly flow aloft and the passage of several cold fronts early next week will reinforce a cool air mass over the central US. This will largely suppress substantial inland moisture return for the foreseeable future. While some thunderstorm potential may exist along the Gulf Coast with a more substantial trough passage later next week, overall thunderstorm/severe potential is very low through the extended forecast period.
..Lyons.. 01/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, February 2
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, February 1 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, February 2 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, February 3 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, February 4 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, February 5 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290942 SPC AC 290942
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe weather potential is low through the extended forecast period. A strong upper low embedded within persistent broad-scale troughing over the East will move offshore this weekend with several other perturbations behind it. Continued northwesterly flow aloft and the passage of several cold fronts early next week will reinforce a cool air mass over the central US. This will largely suppress substantial inland moisture return for the foreseeable future. While some thunderstorm potential may exist along the Gulf Coast with a more substantial trough passage later next week, overall thunderstorm/severe potential is very low through the extended forecast period.
..Lyons.. 01/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, February 3
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, February 1 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, February 2 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, February 3 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, February 4 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, February 5 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290942 SPC AC 290942
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe weather potential is low through the extended forecast period. A strong upper low embedded within persistent broad-scale troughing over the East will move offshore this weekend with several other perturbations behind it. Continued northwesterly flow aloft and the passage of several cold fronts early next week will reinforce a cool air mass over the central US. This will largely suppress substantial inland moisture return for the foreseeable future. While some thunderstorm potential may exist along the Gulf Coast with a more substantial trough passage later next week, overall thunderstorm/severe potential is very low through the extended forecast period.
..Lyons.. 01/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, February 4
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, February 1 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, February 2 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, February 3 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, February 4 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, February 5 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290942 SPC AC 290942
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe weather potential is low through the extended forecast period. A strong upper low embedded within persistent broad-scale troughing over the East will move offshore this weekend with several other perturbations behind it. Continued northwesterly flow aloft and the passage of several cold fronts early next week will reinforce a cool air mass over the central US. This will largely suppress substantial inland moisture return for the foreseeable future. While some thunderstorm potential may exist along the Gulf Coast with a more substantial trough passage later next week, overall thunderstorm/severe potential is very low through the extended forecast period.
..Lyons.. 01/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, February 5
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, February 1 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, February 2 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, February 3 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, February 4 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, February 5 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290942 SPC AC 290942
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe weather potential is low through the extended forecast period. A strong upper low embedded within persistent broad-scale troughing over the East will move offshore this weekend with several other perturbations behind it. Continued northwesterly flow aloft and the passage of several cold fronts early next week will reinforce a cool air mass over the central US. This will largely suppress substantial inland moisture return for the foreseeable future. While some thunderstorm potential may exist along the Gulf Coast with a more substantial trough passage later next week, overall thunderstorm/severe potential is very low through the extended forecast period.
..Lyons.. 01/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, January 29
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Friday, January 30
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Saturday, January 31
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Sunday, February 1
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, February 2
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, February 3
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, February 4
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, February 5
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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