Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Wednesday, April 22

Outlook Summary

Isolated strong-severe thunderstorms with strong gusts and hail will be possible across parts of the High Plains this afternoon and evening, as well as from northeast Indiana into northern Ohio.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 221628

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Valid 221630Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS/NORTHERN PLAINS…AND ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN…NORTHEAST INDIANA INTO NORTHERN OHIO

### SUMMARY

Isolated strong-severe thunderstorms with strong gusts and hail will be possible across parts of the High Plains this afternoon and evening, as well as from northeast Indiana into northern Ohio.

Synopsis

Recent surface analysis shows an airmass modifying under low-level moisture advection across the southern and central Plains, with mid 50s dewpoints reaching through central KS and into eastern NE/western IA. This moderate low-level moisture also extends eastward from IA into northern IL and IN, just south of a stationary boundary that demarcates a drier, more stable airmass across much of the Great Lakes from the modifying airmass farther south/southwest.

This analysis also reveals a pair of surface lows, one over north-central MT and the other over far northeast WY/far southeast MT, linked by modest surface troughing. A wavy surface trough also extends southward to another low over southeast CO. Thunderstorm development is anticipated today/tonight near these lows and their related surface boundaries. In particular, strong to isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible near the northeast WY/far southeast MT low as it moves eastward across SD, as well as in the vicinity of the stationary boundary across northern IN and OH.

IN/OH

Weak surface low over southern Lower MI has already contributed to thunderstorm development. The airmass downstream of this low, and south of the stationary boundary that extends east-to-west near the MI and IN/OH border vicinity, will likely destabilize throughout the day amid continued low-level moisture advection and strong diurnal heating. This destabilization coupled with low-level convergence near the low and boundary will support increasing thunderstorm coverage. Deep-layer wind profiles will be modest, but cool mid-level temperatures and weak-moderate buoyancy could support isolated severe hail and gusty outflow winds with the strongest storms.

High Plains

Primary surface low over central MT is forecast to deepen today as a closed upper low currently over the Great Basin ejects northeastward while evolving towards a more open wave. At the same time, a secondary surface low (currently over far northeast WY/far southeast MT) is forecast to move eastward across SD, interacting with the modifying airmass across the northern/central Plains. Expectation is for this airmass to be deeply mixed, with perhaps some minimal buoyancy atop the well-mixed boundary layer. Development of a few high-based thunderstorms is possible this afternoon/evening from NE into SD, as well as northeast MT, along the trough where deep mixing and inverted-v profiles will favor strong outflow gusts.

Farther south, an even more conditional risk is anticipated along a sharpening dryline from southwest NE and western KS into west TX. Given the limited large-scale forcing and only weak low-level convergence, warm mid-level temperatures and related capping associated with a notable elevated mixed layer will likely suppress thunderstorm development. Here, deep-layer vertical shear will be sufficient for supercells, and a conditional risk for large hail and strong gusts exists with any updrafts that are able to persist and mature.

Western/Central NE into the Dakotas

Additional thunderstorms are possible tonight from western/central NE into the Dakotas as an eastward-progressing cold front interacts with low-level moisture continuing to advect northward across the Plains and a strengthening low-level jet. These storms will likely be elevated behind the front, with some isolated hail possible early in the convective cycle. Additionally, mid-level dry air will likely remain across the region, supporting the potential for strong outflow gusts despite the storms elevated character.

..Mosier/Lyons.. 04/22/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

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Outlook for Thursday, April 23

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms will be possible from southern Kansas into southern Minnesota on Thursday. Large hail to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 220600

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms will be possible from southern Kansas into southern Minnesota on Thursday. Large hail to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible.

Synopsis

A shortwave trough will move northeast along the eastern periphery of a western US longwave trough. This shortwave will help maintain a surface cyclone in southern Canada, while a secondary surface low may develop across southern Minnesota late in the period. A secondary shortwave will approach the southern Plains late in the forecast period.

As the shortwave trough lifts northeast, a cold front will accelerate east across the central and northern Plains. Ahead of the surface front southerly winds will support mid 50F dewpoints as far north as northern Minnesota and pockets of 60F dewpoints perhaps as far north as southern-to-central Minnesota.

Central and Northern Plains

Diurnal heating of the moist airmass ahead of the advancing surface front will yield an increasingly unstable atmosphere during the afternoon with the 20260422/00Z HREF showing ensemble mean SBCAPE values approaching 2000 J/kg as far north as the greater Omaha, NE, vicinity by 20Z. Interrogation of forecast soundings ahead of the frontal boundary shows a strong cap stretching from Oklahoma northward into Nebraska and Iowa. This cap does lift during the day in response to increasing large-scale ascent from the approaching trough, but thunderstorm initiation will likely require convergence along the surface front.

This should occur by mid-afternoon anywhere from northeast Kansas into southern Minnesota. Initially, deep-layer shear is not particularly strong across the warm sector, but would still support a combination of multi-cells and supercells. Given the degree of instability and steep midlevel lapse rates, large-to-very-large hail would be possible with any of these initial storms. A tornado or two would also be possible given some low-level curvature in the forecast hodographs associated with at least a modest low-level jet.

As the cold front continues to move east into the moist and unstable airmass, additional thunderstorms should develop along the front, eventually growing upscale into one or more linear systems and a transition to a damaging wind threat. Vertical shear should improve during the late afternoon and evening as the mid-to-upper-level winds respond to the approach trough, yielding a continued tornado threat with any persistent discrete cell.

Oklahoma and Northwest Texas

A very unstable airmass will develop across the region to the east of a dryline across western Oklahoma during the afternoon. Forecast soundings show varying degrees of a cap across Oklahoma and Northwest Texas. With the strongest large-scale ascent remaining largely to the north of the area, forcing for ascent will likely require strong dryline circulations. Given afternoon temperatures in the 90Fs to the west of the dryline, there is at least some potential for dryline circulations to break the cap and initiate at least a couple of storms. Vertical shear profiles will support supercells capable of very large hail. A highly conditional tornado threat could develop with any discrete storm that is able to move off the dryline and into the increasingly moist and unstable environment to the east.

..Marsh.. 04/22/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Friday, April 24

Outlook Summary

A few severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday. Large hail and damaging wind gusts should be the primary threats.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 220721

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY

### SUMMARY

A few severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday. Large hail and damaging wind gusts should be the primary threats.

Synopsis

A persistent longwave trough will remain situated across the northern US on Friday, maintaining a broad regime of cyclonic midlevel flow over the western two-thirds of the country. Within this broad flow, neutral to modest midlevel height rises are likely across the Southern Plains. This evolution suggests a lack of robust large-scale forcing for ascent, with subtle subsidence potentially acting as a limiting factor for widespread convective coverage.

Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley

At the start of the forecast period, convective activity may be ongoing across portions of northeast Oklahoma, southeast Kansas, southern Missouri, or northern Arkansas along a consolidated outflow boundary/cold front. These storms should slowly weaken during the morning with the loss of large-scale ascent and a weakening low-level jet. The outflow boundary/cold front should slowly sag south through the morning before stalling somewhere in the vicinity of the I40 corridor. This feature will serve as the primary focus for subsequent development later in the afternoon, with residual outflow or differential heating boundaries being a secondary source of initiation.

South of the frontal boundary, a highly unstable airmass will remain in place across the warm sector. Strong diabatic heating of a moist boundary layer will yield pockets of moderate-to-strong instability, with MUCAPE values potentially in the 2000-3000 J/kg range. While deep-layer shear is forecast to remain relatively modest (30-35 knots), the degree of instability will be sufficient to support robust updrafts.

Given the modest shear and lack of stronger synoptic support, storm modes will likely be multicell clusters or transient supercells. Any persistent cell will be capable of producing large hail and localized damaging wind gusts

Lower Mississippi Valley

Convection that develops across Oklahoma and Arkansas during the afternoon is expected to persist into the evening as it moves slowly east-southeast toward Mississippi and Tennessee. Although instability is not as great with eastward extent, it should remain sufficient enough to support some potential for sporadic wind and hail through the overnight hours.

..Marsh.. 04/22/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Saturday, April 25

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220900 SPC AC 220900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

DISCUSSION

An active severe weather pattern will continue through early next week.

On Saturday/Day-4, model guidance continues to show thunderstorms developing during the late afternoon and early evening hours along a lifting warm front across the Southern Plains. Along and south of this boundary, the environment will be strongly unstable with MUCAPE values between 2000-3000 J/kg as a low-level jet continually advects mid 60Fs dewpoints north across the boundary. Effective layer shear around 40 knots would support an initial supercell threat that should grow upscale into bowing segments overnight. A 30% area is introduced across southwest Kansas into east-central Oklahoma for the expectation is for strong bowing segments to move east-southeast overnight into a strong low-level jet. These storms will be capable of producing strong winds, large hail, and QLCS tornadoes.

On Sunday/Day-5, ongoing convection across southeast Kansas and western Missouri at the start of the period may pose a continued risk of hail and damaging winds, and this convection may persist into mid morning. To the west, continued moist low-level advection will allow for surface dewpoints to rise into the upper 60Fs to low 70Fs across central Oklahoma to the east of a sharp dryline. At the same time, a low-amplitude shortwave should approach the Southern Plains during the late afternoon and evening hours, with a mid-990-millibar surface low developing across northwest Oklahoma along the dryline. The result of this setup will be a volatile atmosphere where MLCAPE values around 4000 J/kg exist within a strongly shear environment (vertical shear nearly 50 knots). Should thunderstorms initiate, a high-end severe weather threat could materialize during the late afternoon and evening hours across central and eastern Oklahoma and southern Kansas. However, global models continue to struggle to develop convection within this environment despite model guidance having modest upward vertical velocities overspreading the dryline. Pattern recognition suggests the need for a 30% severe area for this potential despite the lack of a QPF signal in the global models, and have opted to add one with this forecast. The location of this 30% will likely need to be refined in subsequent outlooks.

The severe threat should continue into Monday/Day-6 across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley. Strong storms should develop along and ahead of an eastward moving cold front. MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and 40-knots of deep-layer shear will support supercell thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards. The location, number, and intensity of these supercells will likely be modulated by the events of Sunday. Specifically, if widespread convection does not occur Sunday across the Southern Plains, a more robust reservoir of CAPE/lapse-rates will be available to thunderstorms across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Monday and a higher-end severe potential may develop. This will be monitored in subsequent forecasts.

By Tuesday/Day-7 into Wednesday/Day-8, uncertainty in the severe potential across the southeast increases too much to have confidence in identifying specific locations. Although, as the mesoscale details become cleared in the preceding days, areas may need to be added in subsequent forecasts.

..Marsh.. 04/22/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, April 26

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220900 SPC AC 220900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

DISCUSSION

An active severe weather pattern will continue through early next week.

On Saturday/Day-4, model guidance continues to show thunderstorms developing during the late afternoon and early evening hours along a lifting warm front across the Southern Plains. Along and south of this boundary, the environment will be strongly unstable with MUCAPE values between 2000-3000 J/kg as a low-level jet continually advects mid 60Fs dewpoints north across the boundary. Effective layer shear around 40 knots would support an initial supercell threat that should grow upscale into bowing segments overnight. A 30% area is introduced across southwest Kansas into east-central Oklahoma for the expectation is for strong bowing segments to move east-southeast overnight into a strong low-level jet. These storms will be capable of producing strong winds, large hail, and QLCS tornadoes.

On Sunday/Day-5, ongoing convection across southeast Kansas and western Missouri at the start of the period may pose a continued risk of hail and damaging winds, and this convection may persist into mid morning. To the west, continued moist low-level advection will allow for surface dewpoints to rise into the upper 60Fs to low 70Fs across central Oklahoma to the east of a sharp dryline. At the same time, a low-amplitude shortwave should approach the Southern Plains during the late afternoon and evening hours, with a mid-990-millibar surface low developing across northwest Oklahoma along the dryline. The result of this setup will be a volatile atmosphere where MLCAPE values around 4000 J/kg exist within a strongly shear environment (vertical shear nearly 50 knots). Should thunderstorms initiate, a high-end severe weather threat could materialize during the late afternoon and evening hours across central and eastern Oklahoma and southern Kansas. However, global models continue to struggle to develop convection within this environment despite model guidance having modest upward vertical velocities overspreading the dryline. Pattern recognition suggests the need for a 30% severe area for this potential despite the lack of a QPF signal in the global models, and have opted to add one with this forecast. The location of this 30% will likely need to be refined in subsequent outlooks.

The severe threat should continue into Monday/Day-6 across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley. Strong storms should develop along and ahead of an eastward moving cold front. MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and 40-knots of deep-layer shear will support supercell thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards. The location, number, and intensity of these supercells will likely be modulated by the events of Sunday. Specifically, if widespread convection does not occur Sunday across the Southern Plains, a more robust reservoir of CAPE/lapse-rates will be available to thunderstorms across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Monday and a higher-end severe potential may develop. This will be monitored in subsequent forecasts.

By Tuesday/Day-7 into Wednesday/Day-8, uncertainty in the severe potential across the southeast increases too much to have confidence in identifying specific locations. Although, as the mesoscale details become cleared in the preceding days, areas may need to be added in subsequent forecasts.

..Marsh.. 04/22/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, April 27

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220900 SPC AC 220900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

DISCUSSION

An active severe weather pattern will continue through early next week.

On Saturday/Day-4, model guidance continues to show thunderstorms developing during the late afternoon and early evening hours along a lifting warm front across the Southern Plains. Along and south of this boundary, the environment will be strongly unstable with MUCAPE values between 2000-3000 J/kg as a low-level jet continually advects mid 60Fs dewpoints north across the boundary. Effective layer shear around 40 knots would support an initial supercell threat that should grow upscale into bowing segments overnight. A 30% area is introduced across southwest Kansas into east-central Oklahoma for the expectation is for strong bowing segments to move east-southeast overnight into a strong low-level jet. These storms will be capable of producing strong winds, large hail, and QLCS tornadoes.

On Sunday/Day-5, ongoing convection across southeast Kansas and western Missouri at the start of the period may pose a continued risk of hail and damaging winds, and this convection may persist into mid morning. To the west, continued moist low-level advection will allow for surface dewpoints to rise into the upper 60Fs to low 70Fs across central Oklahoma to the east of a sharp dryline. At the same time, a low-amplitude shortwave should approach the Southern Plains during the late afternoon and evening hours, with a mid-990-millibar surface low developing across northwest Oklahoma along the dryline. The result of this setup will be a volatile atmosphere where MLCAPE values around 4000 J/kg exist within a strongly shear environment (vertical shear nearly 50 knots). Should thunderstorms initiate, a high-end severe weather threat could materialize during the late afternoon and evening hours across central and eastern Oklahoma and southern Kansas. However, global models continue to struggle to develop convection within this environment despite model guidance having modest upward vertical velocities overspreading the dryline. Pattern recognition suggests the need for a 30% severe area for this potential despite the lack of a QPF signal in the global models, and have opted to add one with this forecast. The location of this 30% will likely need to be refined in subsequent outlooks.

The severe threat should continue into Monday/Day-6 across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley. Strong storms should develop along and ahead of an eastward moving cold front. MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and 40-knots of deep-layer shear will support supercell thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards. The location, number, and intensity of these supercells will likely be modulated by the events of Sunday. Specifically, if widespread convection does not occur Sunday across the Southern Plains, a more robust reservoir of CAPE/lapse-rates will be available to thunderstorms across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Monday and a higher-end severe potential may develop. This will be monitored in subsequent forecasts.

By Tuesday/Day-7 into Wednesday/Day-8, uncertainty in the severe potential across the southeast increases too much to have confidence in identifying specific locations. Although, as the mesoscale details become cleared in the preceding days, areas may need to be added in subsequent forecasts.

..Marsh.. 04/22/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, April 28

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220900 SPC AC 220900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

DISCUSSION

An active severe weather pattern will continue through early next week.

On Saturday/Day-4, model guidance continues to show thunderstorms developing during the late afternoon and early evening hours along a lifting warm front across the Southern Plains. Along and south of this boundary, the environment will be strongly unstable with MUCAPE values between 2000-3000 J/kg as a low-level jet continually advects mid 60Fs dewpoints north across the boundary. Effective layer shear around 40 knots would support an initial supercell threat that should grow upscale into bowing segments overnight. A 30% area is introduced across southwest Kansas into east-central Oklahoma for the expectation is for strong bowing segments to move east-southeast overnight into a strong low-level jet. These storms will be capable of producing strong winds, large hail, and QLCS tornadoes.

On Sunday/Day-5, ongoing convection across southeast Kansas and western Missouri at the start of the period may pose a continued risk of hail and damaging winds, and this convection may persist into mid morning. To the west, continued moist low-level advection will allow for surface dewpoints to rise into the upper 60Fs to low 70Fs across central Oklahoma to the east of a sharp dryline. At the same time, a low-amplitude shortwave should approach the Southern Plains during the late afternoon and evening hours, with a mid-990-millibar surface low developing across northwest Oklahoma along the dryline. The result of this setup will be a volatile atmosphere where MLCAPE values around 4000 J/kg exist within a strongly shear environment (vertical shear nearly 50 knots). Should thunderstorms initiate, a high-end severe weather threat could materialize during the late afternoon and evening hours across central and eastern Oklahoma and southern Kansas. However, global models continue to struggle to develop convection within this environment despite model guidance having modest upward vertical velocities overspreading the dryline. Pattern recognition suggests the need for a 30% severe area for this potential despite the lack of a QPF signal in the global models, and have opted to add one with this forecast. The location of this 30% will likely need to be refined in subsequent outlooks.

The severe threat should continue into Monday/Day-6 across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley. Strong storms should develop along and ahead of an eastward moving cold front. MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and 40-knots of deep-layer shear will support supercell thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards. The location, number, and intensity of these supercells will likely be modulated by the events of Sunday. Specifically, if widespread convection does not occur Sunday across the Southern Plains, a more robust reservoir of CAPE/lapse-rates will be available to thunderstorms across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Monday and a higher-end severe potential may develop. This will be monitored in subsequent forecasts.

By Tuesday/Day-7 into Wednesday/Day-8, uncertainty in the severe potential across the southeast increases too much to have confidence in identifying specific locations. Although, as the mesoscale details become cleared in the preceding days, areas may need to be added in subsequent forecasts.

..Marsh.. 04/22/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, April 29

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220900 SPC AC 220900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

DISCUSSION

An active severe weather pattern will continue through early next week.

On Saturday/Day-4, model guidance continues to show thunderstorms developing during the late afternoon and early evening hours along a lifting warm front across the Southern Plains. Along and south of this boundary, the environment will be strongly unstable with MUCAPE values between 2000-3000 J/kg as a low-level jet continually advects mid 60Fs dewpoints north across the boundary. Effective layer shear around 40 knots would support an initial supercell threat that should grow upscale into bowing segments overnight. A 30% area is introduced across southwest Kansas into east-central Oklahoma for the expectation is for strong bowing segments to move east-southeast overnight into a strong low-level jet. These storms will be capable of producing strong winds, large hail, and QLCS tornadoes.

On Sunday/Day-5, ongoing convection across southeast Kansas and western Missouri at the start of the period may pose a continued risk of hail and damaging winds, and this convection may persist into mid morning. To the west, continued moist low-level advection will allow for surface dewpoints to rise into the upper 60Fs to low 70Fs across central Oklahoma to the east of a sharp dryline. At the same time, a low-amplitude shortwave should approach the Southern Plains during the late afternoon and evening hours, with a mid-990-millibar surface low developing across northwest Oklahoma along the dryline. The result of this setup will be a volatile atmosphere where MLCAPE values around 4000 J/kg exist within a strongly shear environment (vertical shear nearly 50 knots). Should thunderstorms initiate, a high-end severe weather threat could materialize during the late afternoon and evening hours across central and eastern Oklahoma and southern Kansas. However, global models continue to struggle to develop convection within this environment despite model guidance having modest upward vertical velocities overspreading the dryline. Pattern recognition suggests the need for a 30% severe area for this potential despite the lack of a QPF signal in the global models, and have opted to add one with this forecast. The location of this 30% will likely need to be refined in subsequent outlooks.

The severe threat should continue into Monday/Day-6 across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley. Strong storms should develop along and ahead of an eastward moving cold front. MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and 40-knots of deep-layer shear will support supercell thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards. The location, number, and intensity of these supercells will likely be modulated by the events of Sunday. Specifically, if widespread convection does not occur Sunday across the Southern Plains, a more robust reservoir of CAPE/lapse-rates will be available to thunderstorms across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Monday and a higher-end severe potential may develop. This will be monitored in subsequent forecasts.

By Tuesday/Day-7 into Wednesday/Day-8, uncertainty in the severe potential across the southeast increases too much to have confidence in identifying specific locations. Although, as the mesoscale details become cleared in the preceding days, areas may need to be added in subsequent forecasts.

..Marsh.. 04/22/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Wednesday, April 22

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 5%

Thursday, April 23

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Friday, April 24

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Saturday, April 25

ANY SEVERE: 30%

Sunday, April 26

ANY SEVERE: 30%

Monday, April 27

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Tuesday, April 28

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Wednesday, April 29

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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