Severe Weather Outlook

show me my personal outlook →

National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Wednesday, June 24

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central High Plains, with a threat for large to very large hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. Other severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Midwest and Great Basin.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 241959

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Valid 242000Z - 251200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS

### THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN…HIGH PLAINS AND MIDWEST

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central High Plains, with a threat for large to very large hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. Other severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Midwest and Great Basin.

20Z Update

The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made with this update. The ENH risk was expanded slightly southeastward in southwestern NE. Here, diurnal heating amid lower 60s dewpoints will yield a corridor of moderate surface-based buoyancy, which combined with 50-60 kt of effective shear, will support the potential for a couple intense supercells capable of producing very large hail and severe gusts. The adjacent SLGT risk was also expanded southeastward into south-central NE and north-central KS, where upscale-growing clusters will pose a risk for severe wind gusts with time.

The SLGT risk in eastern NM was expanded westward toward the higher terrain, given the potential for initially discrete supercell structures capable of producing large hail.

Finally, a CIG1 wind area was added over portions of the Great Basin, where a deeply mixed boundary layer and increasing buoyancy may support some gusts upwards of 75 mph.

..Weinman.. 06/24/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1149 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026/

Central/Southern High Plains

Post-frontal low-level moisture will remain over the central High Plains today via low-level upslope flow, which should be most focused/strongest across southeast Wyoming/northeast Colorado, and to a lesser extent, the Raton Mesa vicinity. As daytime heating occurs and low-level clouds present this morning gradually erode, 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE should develop by mid to late afternoon in a narrow corridor across northeast Colorado into southeast Wyoming. This instability will also be aided by the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates.

Thunderstorms should develop this afternoon across much the region as strong mid-level west-northwesterly flow associated with a shortwave trough over the northern Plains overspreads the central Rockies/High Plains. Accordingly, the highest convective coverage is anticipated from east-central/southeast Wyoming into northeast/east-central CO, where buoyancy should be maximized. Deep-layer shear will be rather strong, with values up to 50-60 kt. These conditions will support the potential for intense supercells capable of large to very large hail (isolated 2-4 inches in diameter possible). Notable low-level curvature of the hodograph could support a couple of tornadoes in this region as well. Eventual upscale growth into a southeastward-moving MCS capable of producing severe winds is probable into eastern Colorado/western Kansas this evening, with some 75+ mph gusts possible.

Lower thunderstorm coverage is anticipated farther south into the southern High Plains, with warmer temperatures and higher cloud bases suggesting a predominantly outflow-dominant mode. Strong to severe gusts will be the primary risk, although isolated hail may also occur.

Midwest including portions of Wisconsin/northern Illinois

A belt of 40-50 kt westerly mid-level flow will overspread Wisconsin and northern Illinois today as a weak shortwave trough moves across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes through the period. Seasonably cool temperatures aloft will aid up to around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE through peak afternoon heating along/ahead of a weak cold front. Current expectations are for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop this afternoon with moderate to locally strong deep-layer shear providing support for updraft organization. A mix of multicells and supercells should pose a threat for severe hail and damaging winds, and possibly some tornado risk, as they spread east-southeastward through the afternoon and evening before eventually weakening.

Great Basin/Four Corners

Current surface observations indicate rather dry conditions across the Great Basin/Four Corners regions this morning. Still, greater low/mid-level moisture is forecast to advect northeastward through the day as a weak mid-level shortwave trough advances east-northeastward from the lower Colorado River Valley across the Great Basin. The boundary layer is expected to become very well mixed with strong daytime heating that will occur this afternoon, with weak instability present. Modestly enhanced mid-level flow will aid in northeastward thunderstorm motions, and some potential exists for strong/gusty outflow winds across a large area this afternoon and early evening.

Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley

Thunderstorms should increase/re-intensify regionally this afternoon, aided by multiple MCVs interacting with a convectively augmented front that extends northwest-southeastward regionally. Deep-layer flow and related shear should remain rather modest. Isolated hail and damaging winds may occur with the strongest cores that form, but the potential for more organized clusters is uncertain. Influenced by prior/modifying outflow, at least a conditional-type risk for supercell redevelopment later today is most probable across portions of southern/eastern Oklahoma toward the ArkLaTex.

Florida

After mostly clear skies this morning, cumulus field continues to increase within a very moist air mass to the south of a front across the northern Florida Peninsula, with low to mid 70s F warm-sector surface dewpoints. While low/mid-level winds will remain weak today, cool mid-level temperatures and ample daytime heating will support the development of moderate to locally strong instability this afternoon. Scattered to numerous pulse-type thunderstorms are expected to develop across the interior Florida Peninsula and Atlantic Coast sea breeze, with occasional damaging winds possible given steepened low-level lapse rates.

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Thursday, June 25

Outlook Summary

Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across portions of the High Plains with a threat for large hail and severe wind. Storms are also expected across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma into the Ozarks where large hail, severe winds, and a few tornadoes are all possible.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 241735

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO THE OZARKS

### SUMMARY

Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across portions of the High Plains with a threat for large hail and severe wind. Storms are also expected across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma into the Ozarks where large hail, severe winds, and a few tornadoes are all possible.

Synopsis

Zonal flow will bring broad westerly flow aloft across much of the central Rockies into the central/southern Plains D2/Thursday. Within the broad upper-level flow, several perturbations will rotate across the central/southern Plains. Further east, a more potent shortwave trough with a band of enhanced westerly flow will move across the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front will extend from Wisconsin south and west into the central Plains shifting south and eastward into the Ohio Valley through the afternoon. A surface low will deepen across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles through the evening.

High Plains

A shortwave trough moving out of Montana will bring forcing for ascent and thunderstorm development by the afternoon across portions of the High Plains. Guidance suggests that ahead of this feature, widespread cloud cover will be in place across much of the central/northern Rockies Thursday morning/early afternoon. This may inhibit destabilization, especially with northern extent into portions of eastern Montana/northern Colorado. Nonetheless, it appears at least marginal instability will be achieved by late afternoon through filtered daytime heating along and east of the Rockies. This in combination with deep layer shear around 30-40 kts will support organized clusters capable of damaging wind. Somewhat better heating is expected across southeastern Colorado, where less cloud cover is expected. Across this region, supercells will be possible with potential for large hail and damaging wind.

Northern Oklahoma/southern Kansas into the Ozarks

A quick moving shortwave trough will likely support potential for an MCS/cluster of thunderstorms to be ongoing Thursday morning into portions of northern Oklahoma/southern Kansas. The exact location of this and resulting remnant outflow boundary placement will have a large impact on afternoon severe potential. Model trends in the 12z guidance have been to push this boundary further south into portions of northern Oklahoma, with the best instability also being shunted further south. Afternoon thunderstorm development should be centered along the intersection of the remnant outflow/cold front from southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma. Moderate instability and deep layer shear around 30-45 kts will support supercells, with storm motions likely to be along-boundary. There remains strong signal that a 40-50 kt southwesterly low-level jet will increase into the evening across Oklahoma into southern Kansas. This in combination with favorable along boundary storm motions will support potential for tornadoes, a few of which could be strong. The main uncertainty remains in the exact placement of the boundary relative to the more favorable corridor of instability/low-level jet axis. The 5% tornado area was shifted southward with this update to account for recent trends. It is possible that if more confidence in the placement of these features occurs, higher probabilities may be needed. For now, confidence remains moderate in supercells developing with potential for large to very large hail and damaging wind.

Portions of the Ohio Valley into southern New York

Development is expected along the cold front from southern New York into the Ohio Valley Thursday afternoon as a jet streak moves across the region with increasing forcing for ascent. Moderate instability and strong deep layer shear ahead of this will support organized storms and perhaps a few transient supercells with potential for damaging wind and large hail. The Marginal Risk was expanded along the front into portions of Indiana/southern Ohio/northern Kentucky to account for this potential extending along the entirety of the cold front.

Northern Utah

Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected across portions of Utah Thursday afternoon. Steep low to mid-level lapse rates are expected with very dry near-surface conditions. Modest instability will overlap with strong deep layer shear across northern Utah by the afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate large inverted-v profiles and potential for severe winds. A Marginal Risk was added to the area to account for this potential.

..Thornton.. 06/24/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Friday, June 26

Outlook Summary

Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible across the High Plains, southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma, and southern Missouri into northern Arkansas/western Kentucky on Friday. Additional severe storms capable of damaging wind will also be possible across portions of the Northeastern US.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 241929

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS…SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA…THE OZARKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY…AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST

### SUMMARY

Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible across the High Plains, southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma, and southern Missouri into northern Arkansas/western Kentucky on Friday. Additional severe storms capable of damaging wind will also be possible across portions of the Northeastern US.

Synopsis

A strengthening mid-level trough will move inland across portions of the Pacific Northwest on D3/Friday, with enhanced mid-level flow spreading into the northern Rockies and northern Plains. Height rises will occur across the High/central High Plains. A shortwave trough will move across portions of the Northeast. A surface low will move northward into Quebec with a trailing cold front extending from the Northeastern US into the Ohio Valley and south and west into the Southern Plains to a surface low across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. Lee cyclogenesis is expected across the northern Plains late in the period.

High Plains

Height rises are expecting amid building mid-level ridging across the High Plains. As the trough deepens to the west across the Pacific Northwest, strong southwesterly mid-level flow will overspread the western portion of the ridge. Despite height rises, a few isolated supercells may develop across portions of eastern Montana into eastern Wyoming/Colorado, given moderate instability and deep layer shear around 30-40 kts progged by late afternoon.

Southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma into the Ozarks and western Ohio Valley

Strong instability is forecast near the frontal boundary across northern Oklahoma into southern Kansas Friday afternoon. Forcing for ascent will remain somewhat weak, with some mid-level height rises expected. However, it appears that thunderstorm activity will develop along the front from southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma spreading eastward into the Ozarks and perhaps the Ohio Valley by late afternoon/evening. Guidance suggests that MLCIN will strengthen south of the front across central Oklahoma into Arkansas, which will likely limit convection to near and just south of the boundary. Along the front, deep layer shear around 30-40 kts will support organized storms and perhaps a few supercells capable of large hail and damaging wind. As the low-level jet increases through the afternoon/evening, thunderstorm coverage will likely increase with some increase in potential for a tornado.

Northeast

As a surface low moves northward into Quebec Friday, a cold front will shift south and eastward across the Northeastern US. Strong upper-level westerly flow with thunderstorms developing along and ahead of the cold front by the afternoon. A pocket of moderate instability overlapping strong deep layer shear around 50 kts will support a few organized severe storms capable of damaging wind.

..Thornton.. 06/24/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Saturday, June 27

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240842 SPC AC 240842

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Valid 271200Z - 021200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Saturday - Northern Plains

A strong trough will advance into the Northwest CONUS on Saturday with a strong mid-level jet extending from the Great Basin to the northern Plains. A lee cyclone will develop across eastern Wyoming into western South Dakota. Southerly flow will strengthen and advect low to mid 60s dewpoints northward. This will lead to strong instability by the late afternoon across the western Dakotas. There is still some uncertainty with the evolution of the upper-level trough which will have some impact in the timing and location of the severe weather threat on Saturday. At this time, have confined the 15% area to where the greatest severe weather threat appears likely Saturday afternoon/evening, but this area may need to be refined in future outlooks.

Day 5 and Beyond

Severe weather will be possible across portions of the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest Sunday and into next week. However, predictability remains too low to highlight areas in this timeframe. The presence of strong to very strong instability across a large region with multiple shortwave troughs emerging from the primary trough centered over the West will surely support severe weather potential most days. However, probabilities for specific areas cannot be added until the upper-level pattern becomes more clear.

..Bentley.. 06/24/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Sunday, June 28

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240842 SPC AC 240842

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Valid 271200Z - 021200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Saturday - Northern Plains

A strong trough will advance into the Northwest CONUS on Saturday with a strong mid-level jet extending from the Great Basin to the northern Plains. A lee cyclone will develop across eastern Wyoming into western South Dakota. Southerly flow will strengthen and advect low to mid 60s dewpoints northward. This will lead to strong instability by the late afternoon across the western Dakotas. There is still some uncertainty with the evolution of the upper-level trough which will have some impact in the timing and location of the severe weather threat on Saturday. At this time, have confined the 15% area to where the greatest severe weather threat appears likely Saturday afternoon/evening, but this area may need to be refined in future outlooks.

Day 5 and Beyond

Severe weather will be possible across portions of the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest Sunday and into next week. However, predictability remains too low to highlight areas in this timeframe. The presence of strong to very strong instability across a large region with multiple shortwave troughs emerging from the primary trough centered over the West will surely support severe weather potential most days. However, probabilities for specific areas cannot be added until the upper-level pattern becomes more clear.

..Bentley.. 06/24/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Monday, June 29

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240842 SPC AC 240842

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Valid 271200Z - 021200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Saturday - Northern Plains

A strong trough will advance into the Northwest CONUS on Saturday with a strong mid-level jet extending from the Great Basin to the northern Plains. A lee cyclone will develop across eastern Wyoming into western South Dakota. Southerly flow will strengthen and advect low to mid 60s dewpoints northward. This will lead to strong instability by the late afternoon across the western Dakotas. There is still some uncertainty with the evolution of the upper-level trough which will have some impact in the timing and location of the severe weather threat on Saturday. At this time, have confined the 15% area to where the greatest severe weather threat appears likely Saturday afternoon/evening, but this area may need to be refined in future outlooks.

Day 5 and Beyond

Severe weather will be possible across portions of the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest Sunday and into next week. However, predictability remains too low to highlight areas in this timeframe. The presence of strong to very strong instability across a large region with multiple shortwave troughs emerging from the primary trough centered over the West will surely support severe weather potential most days. However, probabilities for specific areas cannot be added until the upper-level pattern becomes more clear.

..Bentley.. 06/24/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Tuesday, June 30

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240842 SPC AC 240842

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Valid 271200Z - 021200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Saturday - Northern Plains

A strong trough will advance into the Northwest CONUS on Saturday with a strong mid-level jet extending from the Great Basin to the northern Plains. A lee cyclone will develop across eastern Wyoming into western South Dakota. Southerly flow will strengthen and advect low to mid 60s dewpoints northward. This will lead to strong instability by the late afternoon across the western Dakotas. There is still some uncertainty with the evolution of the upper-level trough which will have some impact in the timing and location of the severe weather threat on Saturday. At this time, have confined the 15% area to where the greatest severe weather threat appears likely Saturday afternoon/evening, but this area may need to be refined in future outlooks.

Day 5 and Beyond

Severe weather will be possible across portions of the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest Sunday and into next week. However, predictability remains too low to highlight areas in this timeframe. The presence of strong to very strong instability across a large region with multiple shortwave troughs emerging from the primary trough centered over the West will surely support severe weather potential most days. However, probabilities for specific areas cannot be added until the upper-level pattern becomes more clear.

..Bentley.. 06/24/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Wednesday, July 1

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240842 SPC AC 240842

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Valid 271200Z - 021200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Saturday - Northern Plains

A strong trough will advance into the Northwest CONUS on Saturday with a strong mid-level jet extending from the Great Basin to the northern Plains. A lee cyclone will develop across eastern Wyoming into western South Dakota. Southerly flow will strengthen and advect low to mid 60s dewpoints northward. This will lead to strong instability by the late afternoon across the western Dakotas. There is still some uncertainty with the evolution of the upper-level trough which will have some impact in the timing and location of the severe weather threat on Saturday. At this time, have confined the 15% area to where the greatest severe weather threat appears likely Saturday afternoon/evening, but this area may need to be refined in future outlooks.

Day 5 and Beyond

Severe weather will be possible across portions of the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest Sunday and into next week. However, predictability remains too low to highlight areas in this timeframe. The presence of strong to very strong instability across a large region with multiple shortwave troughs emerging from the primary trough centered over the West will surely support severe weather potential most days. However, probabilities for specific areas cannot be added until the upper-level pattern becomes more clear.

..Bentley.. 06/24/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, June 24

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 30%

WIND: 15%

Thursday, June 25

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Friday, June 26

ANY SEVERE: 5%

Saturday, June 27

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Sunday, June 28

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Monday, June 29

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Tuesday, June 30

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Wednesday, July 1

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

---

Your Severe Outlook

---

---

About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.

• tornado hq - live severe weather warnings
• cyclocane - hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones
• tornado solitaire - play cards while you monitor the US severe weather threat
• tertremo - live view of earthquakes around the world
• earthquake solitaire - get live earthquake updates as you play your favorite card game