Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Saturday, July 18

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, this afternoon into the evening. Some threat may linger into late tonight.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 180557

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST…MID ATLANTIC AND LOWER GREAT LAKES.

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, this afternoon into the evening. Some threat may linger into late tonight.

OH valley and Great Lakes to the Mid Atlantic and Northeast

An unseasonably strong upper trough is forecast to move from southern ON into the northeast US through early Sunday. As the trough intensifies, a 60+ kt mid-level jet will overspread portions of eastern Canada and the Northeast, aiding in deepening a surface low across the eastern St Lawrence Valley. Strong surface mass response will lift a warm front northward across eastern NY and southern New England. South of the boundary, a very moist air mass will be in place ahead of a cold front over the OH Valley and Great Lakes. A rather broad area, is expected to be conducive for numerous strong to severe storms with the potential for widespread damaging winds over the Northeastern US today and tonight.

One or more clusters of showers/thunderstorms appears likely to be ongoing at the start of the period from central PA and southern NY into eastern ON as isentropic ascent increases along the advancing warm front. The impact of this overnight/early morning convection is somewhat uncertain, but most guidance shows substantial air mass recovery in its wake by midday with dewpoints in the mid 70s across much of the Mid Atlantic. Given the degree of moisture and minimal inhibition present, even modest diurnal heating should support rapid destabilization with MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg common by early afternoon.

Several different forcing regimes are expected to be active which makes the convective evolution highly uncertain. The early morning storms near the advancing warm front in PA could re-intensify as the air mass to their south and east gradually destabilizes. This would favor an increasing risk for damaging gusts. 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear could also support some supercell structures. A couple of tornadoes (some possibly strong) may occur, given favorable backed low-level flow and ESRH of 200-300 m2/s2 near the front from southeastern PA, into NJ and southern NY.

Additional storms are likely to develop along a pre-frontal confluence axis/lee trough east of the higher terrain from southern PA into eastern MD and northern VA to northern NC. Large buoyancy and deep-layer shear of 30-40 kt would favor a mixed mode of line segments and supercells. These storms should move eastward toward DelMarVa and the I-95 Corridor by early afternoon. RAP/HRRR soundings show 40-50 kt of flow aloft as the upper trough and jet streak move overhead. Regardless of storm mode, the high PWAT content (2-2.5 inches) should foster strong downdrafts and momentum transfer to the surface. Widespread damaging gusts are likely from northeast VA, eastern MD, into southeast PA and NJ. Higher wind probabilities (60%) may be needed if confidence in a more linear/cluster storm mode develops.

To the west, ahead of the cold front, a broken band of cells and clusters is likely from NY/VT to the Lower Great Lakes. The strongest vertical shear should reside across upstate NY into northwest PA and northeast OH, where a few supercells are possible. While farther west, strongly veered surface flow should result in more linear storm modes. Multiple wind-damage swaths may accompany these storms, along with some potential for isolated hail. 70s F surface dewpoints and enhanced low-level SRH could also support a tornado threat with any discrete or embedded supercells, especially closer to the surface low and near the effective warm frontal zone where low-level shear is more favorable.

Northern Rockies

The mid/upper-level low that has lingered over the Pacific Northwest this week is forecast to move northeastward and weaken to an open wave as it lifts across far northern ID/MT into southern Canada. While only glancing over the northern Rockies, modestly enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will be maintained across the region through the day/evening. Monsoon moisture and strong diurnal heating will support widely scattered storm development during the afternoon, with MLCAPE increasing to near 1000 J/kg and effective shear of 30+ kt. This could support a threat of isolated hail and localized strong to severe gusts with the more robust storms.

Gulf Coast

A remnant MCV may serve as a focus for diurnal thunderstorm development along the northern Gulf Coast today. While vertical shear is limited, locally moderate to strong buoyancy and very high PWAT values could support sporadic downbursts with damaging gusts. However, confidence in how widespread or sustained the severe threat is too low for wind probabilities.

..Lyons/Weinman.. 07/18/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Sunday, July 19

Outlook Summary

Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may pose a risk for damaging wind gusts across portions of the southern Appalachians to the coastal Carolinas/southeast Virginia vicinity on Sunday. Strong to severe storms may also develop across parts of eastern Montana into North Dakota and Minnesota.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 180505

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS…AND PARTS OF NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA

### SUMMARY

Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may pose a risk for damaging wind gusts across portions of the southern Appalachians to the coastal Carolinas/southeast Virginia vicinity on Sunday. Strong to severe storms may also develop across parts of eastern Montana into North Dakota and Minnesota.

Southern Appalachians to the Coastal Carolinas/Southern VA

An upper trough over the eastern U.S. will persist on Sunday. At the surface, a cold front will develop southward across VA toward the NC/VA border. Near and south of this front, a very moist airmass will be in place (70s F dewpoints), and strong heating will foster a corridor of moderate instability. Deep-layer flow will remain modest, with effective shear values typically only around 20-25 kt. However, steep low-level lapse rates and PW values near/above 2 inches are present in forecast soundings. Storms that develop will pose a risk for wet microbursts, and a greater wind risk may evolve closer to the cold front where sufficient clustering occurs.

Northern Plains into northern MN

A compact upper low/shortwave trough over Alberta will develop east/southeast on Sunday, emerging over the Canadian Prairies and northern Plains. As this occurs, a belt of strengthening west/northwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread the region. A surface cold front will develop southeast across eastern/southern MT during the afternoon, and the Dakotas during the evening/overnight hours. Southerly low-level flow ahead of this feature will transport modest moisture northward into the area. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE amid 40+ kt effective shear magnitudes. Initial convection may be cellular, posing a risk for isolated large hail. Given steep low-level lapse rates, strong outflow winds also will be possible, and some potential for a bowing cluster of storms is possible if sufficient storm coverage occurs ahead of the cold front from southern/eastern MT into the Dakotas through evening. Overnight storms may persist eastward into northern MN, though severe potential is less certain across this area given stronger capping.

..Leitman.. 07/18/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Monday, July 20

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes vicinity on Monday. Swaths of damaging winds will be the most likely hazard with this activity.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 180702

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes vicinity on Monday. Swaths of damaging winds will be the most likely hazard with this activity.

Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity

An upper shortwave trough initially over the northern Plains will deepen as it shifts east/southeast over the Great Lakes. Northwesterly flow aloft will increase over the region as this occurs. A surface low will deepen as it moves across southern Manitoba and western Ontario toward the northern Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will sweep across the Upper Midwest, becoming oriented from northern Lower MI southwestward toward the Lower MO Valley by Tuesday morning.

A very moist airmass (70s dewpoints) will be in place ahead of the cold front, fostering a corridor of strong to extreme instability across parts of southeast MN into WI and portions of the Mid-MS Valley. Supercell wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings, though linear forcing along the front, and the progressive nature of the upper trough, is likely to result in a bowing line of convection moving across the region. While all severe hazards will be possible given the favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment, storm mode will likely favor a predominant risk for swaths of damaging winds. Eastward extent of severe potential is a bit uncertain as some guidance maintains rather strong capping toward Lake MI. Forecast trends will be monitored, and higher probabilities may be needed in a subsequent outlook.

North Carolina

Broad upper troughing will persist across portions of the eastern U.S. on Monday, and modest west/northwest flow aloft will overspread the southern Mid-Atlantic vicinity. A stalled surface front across northeast NC will move north through the morning, and a very moist and unstable airmass will be in place. Convection developing within low-level confluence south of the surface boundary may pose a risk for wet microbursts given steep low-level lapse rates and high PW values.

..Leitman.. 07/18/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, July 21

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180757 SPC AC 180757

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4-5/Tue-Wed – Ohio Valley to Mid-Atlantic Vicinity

An upper trough will pivot across the region on Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing enhanced southerly flow aloft as a surface cold front sweeps east/southeast through Wednesday night. Ahead of the surface front, rich boundary layer moisture will be in place, and at least moderate destabilization should occur. Convection could be ongoing Tuesday morning across parts of IL/IN/Lower MI/western OH. The extent of this activity is unclear and will depend on the evolution of any potential MCS in the Day 3 period. Nevertheless, the downstream airmass across parts of the Ohio Valley will become favorable for scattered severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening, likely in the form of one or more line segments organizing ahead of the advancing cold front. An additional area of severe storms will be possible on Tuesday across the Mid-Atlantic within a warm advection regime ahead of the approaching system over the Ohio Valley. Some areas could see more than one round of severe thunderstorms on Tuesday/Tuesday night.

By Wednesday, the severe risk should spread east from the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas as the upper trough and surface cold front continue to shift east. It is uncertain how far north the severe risk may extend and probabilities may eventually need to be included across parts of the Northeast/New England. Where storms do form, damaging winds will be possible until the cold front moves offshore Wednesday evening/night.

Days 6-8/Thu-Sat

Upper troughing will persist across the eastern U.S. through the end of the forecast period, but deep-layer flow will weaken. High pressure in the wake of the cold frontal passage will preclude severe potential across the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Thursday through Saturday.

Across the Plains and western U.S., a strong upper anticyclone will park over the southern Plains, with an amplified upper ridge building into the northern Rockies. Some thunderstorm potential could develop across parts of the Plains as low-level moisture increases beneath the ridge. However, severe potential is uncertain as any potential would be driven by mesoscale features not well defined at this time frame, and as the upper ridge suppresses any large-scale support for organized severe thunderstorms.

..Leitman.. 07/18/2026

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Outlook for Wednesday, July 22

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180757 SPC AC 180757

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4-5/Tue-Wed – Ohio Valley to Mid-Atlantic Vicinity

An upper trough will pivot across the region on Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing enhanced southerly flow aloft as a surface cold front sweeps east/southeast through Wednesday night. Ahead of the surface front, rich boundary layer moisture will be in place, and at least moderate destabilization should occur. Convection could be ongoing Tuesday morning across parts of IL/IN/Lower MI/western OH. The extent of this activity is unclear and will depend on the evolution of any potential MCS in the Day 3 period. Nevertheless, the downstream airmass across parts of the Ohio Valley will become favorable for scattered severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening, likely in the form of one or more line segments organizing ahead of the advancing cold front. An additional area of severe storms will be possible on Tuesday across the Mid-Atlantic within a warm advection regime ahead of the approaching system over the Ohio Valley. Some areas could see more than one round of severe thunderstorms on Tuesday/Tuesday night.

By Wednesday, the severe risk should spread east from the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas as the upper trough and surface cold front continue to shift east. It is uncertain how far north the severe risk may extend and probabilities may eventually need to be included across parts of the Northeast/New England. Where storms do form, damaging winds will be possible until the cold front moves offshore Wednesday evening/night.

Days 6-8/Thu-Sat

Upper troughing will persist across the eastern U.S. through the end of the forecast period, but deep-layer flow will weaken. High pressure in the wake of the cold frontal passage will preclude severe potential across the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Thursday through Saturday.

Across the Plains and western U.S., a strong upper anticyclone will park over the southern Plains, with an amplified upper ridge building into the northern Rockies. Some thunderstorm potential could develop across parts of the Plains as low-level moisture increases beneath the ridge. However, severe potential is uncertain as any potential would be driven by mesoscale features not well defined at this time frame, and as the upper ridge suppresses any large-scale support for organized severe thunderstorms.

..Leitman.. 07/18/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Thursday, July 23

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180757 SPC AC 180757

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4-5/Tue-Wed – Ohio Valley to Mid-Atlantic Vicinity

An upper trough will pivot across the region on Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing enhanced southerly flow aloft as a surface cold front sweeps east/southeast through Wednesday night. Ahead of the surface front, rich boundary layer moisture will be in place, and at least moderate destabilization should occur. Convection could be ongoing Tuesday morning across parts of IL/IN/Lower MI/western OH. The extent of this activity is unclear and will depend on the evolution of any potential MCS in the Day 3 period. Nevertheless, the downstream airmass across parts of the Ohio Valley will become favorable for scattered severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening, likely in the form of one or more line segments organizing ahead of the advancing cold front. An additional area of severe storms will be possible on Tuesday across the Mid-Atlantic within a warm advection regime ahead of the approaching system over the Ohio Valley. Some areas could see more than one round of severe thunderstorms on Tuesday/Tuesday night.

By Wednesday, the severe risk should spread east from the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas as the upper trough and surface cold front continue to shift east. It is uncertain how far north the severe risk may extend and probabilities may eventually need to be included across parts of the Northeast/New England. Where storms do form, damaging winds will be possible until the cold front moves offshore Wednesday evening/night.

Days 6-8/Thu-Sat

Upper troughing will persist across the eastern U.S. through the end of the forecast period, but deep-layer flow will weaken. High pressure in the wake of the cold frontal passage will preclude severe potential across the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Thursday through Saturday.

Across the Plains and western U.S., a strong upper anticyclone will park over the southern Plains, with an amplified upper ridge building into the northern Rockies. Some thunderstorm potential could develop across parts of the Plains as low-level moisture increases beneath the ridge. However, severe potential is uncertain as any potential would be driven by mesoscale features not well defined at this time frame, and as the upper ridge suppresses any large-scale support for organized severe thunderstorms.

..Leitman.. 07/18/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Friday, July 24

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180757 SPC AC 180757

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4-5/Tue-Wed – Ohio Valley to Mid-Atlantic Vicinity

An upper trough will pivot across the region on Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing enhanced southerly flow aloft as a surface cold front sweeps east/southeast through Wednesday night. Ahead of the surface front, rich boundary layer moisture will be in place, and at least moderate destabilization should occur. Convection could be ongoing Tuesday morning across parts of IL/IN/Lower MI/western OH. The extent of this activity is unclear and will depend on the evolution of any potential MCS in the Day 3 period. Nevertheless, the downstream airmass across parts of the Ohio Valley will become favorable for scattered severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening, likely in the form of one or more line segments organizing ahead of the advancing cold front. An additional area of severe storms will be possible on Tuesday across the Mid-Atlantic within a warm advection regime ahead of the approaching system over the Ohio Valley. Some areas could see more than one round of severe thunderstorms on Tuesday/Tuesday night.

By Wednesday, the severe risk should spread east from the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas as the upper trough and surface cold front continue to shift east. It is uncertain how far north the severe risk may extend and probabilities may eventually need to be included across parts of the Northeast/New England. Where storms do form, damaging winds will be possible until the cold front moves offshore Wednesday evening/night.

Days 6-8/Thu-Sat

Upper troughing will persist across the eastern U.S. through the end of the forecast period, but deep-layer flow will weaken. High pressure in the wake of the cold frontal passage will preclude severe potential across the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Thursday through Saturday.

Across the Plains and western U.S., a strong upper anticyclone will park over the southern Plains, with an amplified upper ridge building into the northern Rockies. Some thunderstorm potential could develop across parts of the Plains as low-level moisture increases beneath the ridge. However, severe potential is uncertain as any potential would be driven by mesoscale features not well defined at this time frame, and as the upper ridge suppresses any large-scale support for organized severe thunderstorms.

..Leitman.. 07/18/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, July 25

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180757 SPC AC 180757

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4-5/Tue-Wed – Ohio Valley to Mid-Atlantic Vicinity

An upper trough will pivot across the region on Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing enhanced southerly flow aloft as a surface cold front sweeps east/southeast through Wednesday night. Ahead of the surface front, rich boundary layer moisture will be in place, and at least moderate destabilization should occur. Convection could be ongoing Tuesday morning across parts of IL/IN/Lower MI/western OH. The extent of this activity is unclear and will depend on the evolution of any potential MCS in the Day 3 period. Nevertheless, the downstream airmass across parts of the Ohio Valley will become favorable for scattered severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening, likely in the form of one or more line segments organizing ahead of the advancing cold front. An additional area of severe storms will be possible on Tuesday across the Mid-Atlantic within a warm advection regime ahead of the approaching system over the Ohio Valley. Some areas could see more than one round of severe thunderstorms on Tuesday/Tuesday night.

By Wednesday, the severe risk should spread east from the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas as the upper trough and surface cold front continue to shift east. It is uncertain how far north the severe risk may extend and probabilities may eventually need to be included across parts of the Northeast/New England. Where storms do form, damaging winds will be possible until the cold front moves offshore Wednesday evening/night.

Days 6-8/Thu-Sat

Upper troughing will persist across the eastern U.S. through the end of the forecast period, but deep-layer flow will weaken. High pressure in the wake of the cold frontal passage will preclude severe potential across the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Thursday through Saturday.

Across the Plains and western U.S., a strong upper anticyclone will park over the southern Plains, with an amplified upper ridge building into the northern Rockies. Some thunderstorm potential could develop across parts of the Plains as low-level moisture increases beneath the ridge. However, severe potential is uncertain as any potential would be driven by mesoscale features not well defined at this time frame, and as the upper ridge suppresses any large-scale support for organized severe thunderstorms.

..Leitman.. 07/18/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Saturday, July 18

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 45%

Sunday, July 19

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 15%

Monday, July 20

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Tuesday, July 21

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Wednesday, July 22

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Thursday, July 23

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, July 24

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Saturday, July 25

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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