An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is expected today, with primary threat centered over Illinois and Indiana. Several intense tornadoes, swaths of damaging gusts over 75 mph and damaging wind-driven hail will all be possible.

Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Wednesday, June 17

Thursday, June 18

Friday, June 19

Saturday, June 20

Sunday, June 21

Monday, June 22

Tuesday, June 23

Wednesday, June 24

Outlook for Wednesday, June 17

Outlook Summary

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 15%

wind 30%

hail 30%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 170556

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER ILLINOIS AND INDIANA

### SUMMARY

An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is expected today, with primary threat centered over Illinois and Indiana. Several intense tornadoes, swaths of damaging gusts over 75 mph and damaging wind-driven hail will all be possible.

IL…IN…MO…OH

An intense mid and upper level jet will nose southeastward across the Midwest today, with a prominent leading disturbance moving out of IA and into IL through midday. Severe storms are likely to be associated with this early wave as a southwesterly low-level jet increases to 60 kt and rapidly bring instability into the area. This initial activity will bring damaging winds to eastern IA and northern/central IL. This system is expected to weaken later in the afternoon, but some remnants will move across IN.

Ahead of this early activity, a warm front will push north across IN and OH. New severe storm development, perhaps transitioning out of the remnant activity and/or forming near the warm front, is possible across northern IN into northwest OH. Shear profiles will be excessive, with tornado risk only conditional on minimal instability being present. The result may be a isolated tornadic supercells.

To the west, the air mass across northern MO, IL, and into central IN will easily recover and rapidly destabilize due to strong southwest winds. A 60+ kt low-level jet is forecast, with notably strong winds around 700 mb as well (surface to 3 km shear values may exceed 60 kt). A plume of 65-70 F dewpoints will likely extend from central MO into IL and western IN in the 21-00Z time frame, contributing to 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE.

A broken line of supercells is likely to develop and mature roughly from northern IN into central IL and MO around 21Z and spreading east/southeast through early evening. Given the clearly supercellular shear profiles, linear storm mode is unlikely for most of the event. Long-tracked supercells producing tornadoes and damaging hail are likely.

Finally, the warm frontal position will need to be monitored near the IN/MI border. Even if instability is elevated into MI, extreme shear and lift may still yield damaging winds and even a tornado risk. As such, probabilities have been increased into far southern Lower MI.

Upper TX Coast into the northern Gulf Coast

The NHC forecast shows Potential TC One moving into southwest LA by 00Z. Wind fields associated with this system will strengthen out of the south ahead of it, resulting in areas of strong low-level shear from TX into southern LA, and possibly into MS. Mid to upper 70 F dewpoints will contribute to modest CAPE values, supporting embedded stronger cells with tornado potential.

..Jewell/Weinman.. 06/17/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Thursday, June 18

Outlook Summary

Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible from Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic, and across parts of the Northeast. Damaging wind gusts will be the main hazard with this activity.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 15%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 170525

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM KENTUCKY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST

### SUMMARY

Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible from Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic, and across parts of the Northeast. Damaging wind gusts will be the main hazard with this activity.

Synopsis

An upper shortwave trough over the Lower Great Lakes/Upper Ohio Valley Thursday morning will pivot northeast across the Northeast through evening. Strong deep layer southwesterly flow associated with this feature will already be in place at the beginning of the period, with 500 mb flow from 60-80 kt stretching across portions of the Northeast. Meanwhile, an intense 850 mb low-level jet will lift northeast across the central Appalachians, the Mid-Atlantic, and the Northeast. A surface low over southern Ontario will pivot northeast into Quebec, while a trailing cold front stretches from the Lower Great Lakes west/southwest toward the Mid-MS Valley and the OK/TX Panhandles Thursday morning. The northern extent of this boundary will spread east across the Northeast while the western extent across the Ohio Valley into the Plains slowly sags southward.

Across the Gulf Coast states, the remnants of current Potential Tropical Cyclone One will migrate eastward across the region. This feature could locally enhance deep layer shear amid a very moist and modestly airmass.

Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast Vicinity

Convection will be ongoing Thursday morning in the vicinity of the surface cold front. Ahead of the front, a seasonally moist airmass will be in place. Instability will likely be muted from PA/NY into New England due to cloud cover, poor lapse rates and a narrow/modest warm sector. Nevertheless, intense deep-layer flow will overspread the Northeast and fast moving storms could produce damaging wind gusts.

Stronger instability is expected in a corridor from KY into the Mid-Atlantic where richer boundary layer moisture will be in place. This corridor also may see stronger heating. The strong 850 mb low-level jet will gradually weaken through the day as it lifts northeast, but strong deep-layer flow will persist atop this moist/unstable airmass. Scattered storms are expected during the afternoon into evening, posing mainly a risk of damaging gusts.

Gulf Coast/Southeast

The remnants of current Potential Tropical Cyclone One will migrate east/northeast across the region on Thursday. A very moist airmass will be in place, and where stronger heating can occur, moderate destabilization is expected. Furthermore, the remnant low will locally enhance vertical shear. Isolated strong storms capable of producing gusty winds and a tornado or two will be possible.

Southern Plains to Mid-South

Severe thunderstorm potential is a bit more uncertain from OK/northwest TX into the Ozarks vicinity. A very moist and unstable airmass will be in place ahead of the southward sagging cold front. However, large-scale ascent will be weak and capping could limit storm coverage. If storms can develop ahead of the front, some risk for strong wind and hail will be possible.

..Leitman.. 06/17/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Friday, June 19

Outlook Summary

Isolated strong thunderstorms may produce damaging wind gusts across portions of the Gulf Coast states/Southeast on Friday.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 170639

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST

### SUMMARY

Isolated strong thunderstorms may produce damaging wind gusts across portions of the Gulf Coast states/Southeast on Friday.

Southeast

A series of mid/upper shortwave impulses will migrate across the Gulf Coast states/Southeast on Friday. Forecast guidance depicts fairly strong 850 mb flow across the region early in the day, and lifting shifting offshore from the Carolinas by late afternoon. While 850-700 mb flow will be enhanced, vertical shear will be modest. Nevertheless, convection will develop within a very moist airmass amid moderate to strong instability ahead of a southward sagging front. Isolated strong/damaging gusts will be possible with this activity.

..Leitman.. 06/17/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Saturday, June 20

Outlook Images

any severe 15%

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, June 20	15%
Day 5	Sunday, June 21	predictability too low
Day 6	Monday, June 22	predictability too low
Day 7	Tuesday, June 23	predictability too low
Day 8	Wednesday, June 24	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170721 SPC AC 170721

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Saturday - Central Plains

A mid/upper trough ejecting across the central Rockies into the Plains will break down the upper ridge centered over the Plains on Saturday. This will result in some enhancement of mid/upper level west/northwesterly flow. Surface lee troughing will extend from eastern WY through eastern CO, and increasing south/southeasterly low-level flow will transport 60s F dewpoints northward into NE and far southwest SD. Increasing boundary layer moisture and steepening midlevel lapse rates will support moderate destabilization by late afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms are expected to develop by 21-00z and migrate southeast, posing a severe risk across portions of the central Plains.

Day 5/Sunday - OK/KS into the Mid-MS Valley

Medium range guidance varies considerably regarding evolution of a modest midlevel shortwave trough and associated surface low and cold front on Sunday. It is possible that an MCS related to Day 4/Saturday convection could be ongoing Sunday morning somewhere near the Mid-MO Valley. Depending on how surface feature evolve, a severe risk could develop across parts of eastern OK/KS into the Mid-MS Valley given a seasonally moist/unstable airmass and at least some enhancement of deep-layer flow from the mid/upper shortwave trough. However, placement of the surface low Sunday morning varies by a few hundred miles between the ECMWF and GFS deterministic members. The AIGFS is more similar to the ECMWF, but details remain quite different. This precludes a 15 percent delineation at this time, but probabilities may be needed at some point somewhere from OK/KS into the Mid-MS Valley/Mid-South regions.

Days 6-8/Monday-Wednesday

A more June-like pattern appears to evolve through mid-week with weaker deep-layer flow expected amid weak troughing in the East and upper ridging across the West. Some severe thunderstorm potential could develop across the Plains as low-level moisture spreads northward beneath modest northwesterly flow aloft. However, predictability is low given a lack of stronger large-scale ascent. Daily thunderstorm chances will be driven by mesoscale processes not well resolved at longer time scale.

..Leitman.. 06/17/2026

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Outlook for Sunday, June 21

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, June 20	15%
Day 5	Sunday, June 21	predictability too low
Day 6	Monday, June 22	predictability too low
Day 7	Tuesday, June 23	predictability too low
Day 8	Wednesday, June 24	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170721 SPC AC 170721

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Saturday - Central Plains

A mid/upper trough ejecting across the central Rockies into the Plains will break down the upper ridge centered over the Plains on Saturday. This will result in some enhancement of mid/upper level west/northwesterly flow. Surface lee troughing will extend from eastern WY through eastern CO, and increasing south/southeasterly low-level flow will transport 60s F dewpoints northward into NE and far southwest SD. Increasing boundary layer moisture and steepening midlevel lapse rates will support moderate destabilization by late afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms are expected to develop by 21-00z and migrate southeast, posing a severe risk across portions of the central Plains.

Day 5/Sunday - OK/KS into the Mid-MS Valley

Medium range guidance varies considerably regarding evolution of a modest midlevel shortwave trough and associated surface low and cold front on Sunday. It is possible that an MCS related to Day 4/Saturday convection could be ongoing Sunday morning somewhere near the Mid-MO Valley. Depending on how surface feature evolve, a severe risk could develop across parts of eastern OK/KS into the Mid-MS Valley given a seasonally moist/unstable airmass and at least some enhancement of deep-layer flow from the mid/upper shortwave trough. However, placement of the surface low Sunday morning varies by a few hundred miles between the ECMWF and GFS deterministic members. The AIGFS is more similar to the ECMWF, but details remain quite different. This precludes a 15 percent delineation at this time, but probabilities may be needed at some point somewhere from OK/KS into the Mid-MS Valley/Mid-South regions.

Days 6-8/Monday-Wednesday

A more June-like pattern appears to evolve through mid-week with weaker deep-layer flow expected amid weak troughing in the East and upper ridging across the West. Some severe thunderstorm potential could develop across the Plains as low-level moisture spreads northward beneath modest northwesterly flow aloft. However, predictability is low given a lack of stronger large-scale ascent. Daily thunderstorm chances will be driven by mesoscale processes not well resolved at longer time scale.

..Leitman.. 06/17/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, June 22

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, June 20	15%
Day 5	Sunday, June 21	predictability too low
Day 6	Monday, June 22	predictability too low
Day 7	Tuesday, June 23	predictability too low
Day 8	Wednesday, June 24	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170721 SPC AC 170721

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Saturday - Central Plains

A mid/upper trough ejecting across the central Rockies into the Plains will break down the upper ridge centered over the Plains on Saturday. This will result in some enhancement of mid/upper level west/northwesterly flow. Surface lee troughing will extend from eastern WY through eastern CO, and increasing south/southeasterly low-level flow will transport 60s F dewpoints northward into NE and far southwest SD. Increasing boundary layer moisture and steepening midlevel lapse rates will support moderate destabilization by late afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms are expected to develop by 21-00z and migrate southeast, posing a severe risk across portions of the central Plains.

Day 5/Sunday - OK/KS into the Mid-MS Valley

Medium range guidance varies considerably regarding evolution of a modest midlevel shortwave trough and associated surface low and cold front on Sunday. It is possible that an MCS related to Day 4/Saturday convection could be ongoing Sunday morning somewhere near the Mid-MO Valley. Depending on how surface feature evolve, a severe risk could develop across parts of eastern OK/KS into the Mid-MS Valley given a seasonally moist/unstable airmass and at least some enhancement of deep-layer flow from the mid/upper shortwave trough. However, placement of the surface low Sunday morning varies by a few hundred miles between the ECMWF and GFS deterministic members. The AIGFS is more similar to the ECMWF, but details remain quite different. This precludes a 15 percent delineation at this time, but probabilities may be needed at some point somewhere from OK/KS into the Mid-MS Valley/Mid-South regions.

Days 6-8/Monday-Wednesday

A more June-like pattern appears to evolve through mid-week with weaker deep-layer flow expected amid weak troughing in the East and upper ridging across the West. Some severe thunderstorm potential could develop across the Plains as low-level moisture spreads northward beneath modest northwesterly flow aloft. However, predictability is low given a lack of stronger large-scale ascent. Daily thunderstorm chances will be driven by mesoscale processes not well resolved at longer time scale.

..Leitman.. 06/17/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, June 23

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, June 20	15%
Day 5	Sunday, June 21	predictability too low
Day 6	Monday, June 22	predictability too low
Day 7	Tuesday, June 23	predictability too low
Day 8	Wednesday, June 24	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170721 SPC AC 170721

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Saturday - Central Plains

A mid/upper trough ejecting across the central Rockies into the Plains will break down the upper ridge centered over the Plains on Saturday. This will result in some enhancement of mid/upper level west/northwesterly flow. Surface lee troughing will extend from eastern WY through eastern CO, and increasing south/southeasterly low-level flow will transport 60s F dewpoints northward into NE and far southwest SD. Increasing boundary layer moisture and steepening midlevel lapse rates will support moderate destabilization by late afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms are expected to develop by 21-00z and migrate southeast, posing a severe risk across portions of the central Plains.

Day 5/Sunday - OK/KS into the Mid-MS Valley

Medium range guidance varies considerably regarding evolution of a modest midlevel shortwave trough and associated surface low and cold front on Sunday. It is possible that an MCS related to Day 4/Saturday convection could be ongoing Sunday morning somewhere near the Mid-MO Valley. Depending on how surface feature evolve, a severe risk could develop across parts of eastern OK/KS into the Mid-MS Valley given a seasonally moist/unstable airmass and at least some enhancement of deep-layer flow from the mid/upper shortwave trough. However, placement of the surface low Sunday morning varies by a few hundred miles between the ECMWF and GFS deterministic members. The AIGFS is more similar to the ECMWF, but details remain quite different. This precludes a 15 percent delineation at this time, but probabilities may be needed at some point somewhere from OK/KS into the Mid-MS Valley/Mid-South regions.

Days 6-8/Monday-Wednesday

A more June-like pattern appears to evolve through mid-week with weaker deep-layer flow expected amid weak troughing in the East and upper ridging across the West. Some severe thunderstorm potential could develop across the Plains as low-level moisture spreads northward beneath modest northwesterly flow aloft. However, predictability is low given a lack of stronger large-scale ascent. Daily thunderstorm chances will be driven by mesoscale processes not well resolved at longer time scale.

..Leitman.. 06/17/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Wednesday, June 24

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, June 20	15%
Day 5	Sunday, June 21	predictability too low
Day 6	Monday, June 22	predictability too low
Day 7	Tuesday, June 23	predictability too low
Day 8	Wednesday, June 24	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170721 SPC AC 170721

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Saturday - Central Plains

A mid/upper trough ejecting across the central Rockies into the Plains will break down the upper ridge centered over the Plains on Saturday. This will result in some enhancement of mid/upper level west/northwesterly flow. Surface lee troughing will extend from eastern WY through eastern CO, and increasing south/southeasterly low-level flow will transport 60s F dewpoints northward into NE and far southwest SD. Increasing boundary layer moisture and steepening midlevel lapse rates will support moderate destabilization by late afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms are expected to develop by 21-00z and migrate southeast, posing a severe risk across portions of the central Plains.

Day 5/Sunday - OK/KS into the Mid-MS Valley

Medium range guidance varies considerably regarding evolution of a modest midlevel shortwave trough and associated surface low and cold front on Sunday. It is possible that an MCS related to Day 4/Saturday convection could be ongoing Sunday morning somewhere near the Mid-MO Valley. Depending on how surface feature evolve, a severe risk could develop across parts of eastern OK/KS into the Mid-MS Valley given a seasonally moist/unstable airmass and at least some enhancement of deep-layer flow from the mid/upper shortwave trough. However, placement of the surface low Sunday morning varies by a few hundred miles between the ECMWF and GFS deterministic members. The AIGFS is more similar to the ECMWF, but details remain quite different. This precludes a 15 percent delineation at this time, but probabilities may be needed at some point somewhere from OK/KS into the Mid-MS Valley/Mid-South regions.

Days 6-8/Monday-Wednesday

A more June-like pattern appears to evolve through mid-week with weaker deep-layer flow expected amid weak troughing in the East and upper ridging across the West. Some severe thunderstorm potential could develop across the Plains as low-level moisture spreads northward beneath modest northwesterly flow aloft. However, predictability is low given a lack of stronger large-scale ascent. Daily thunderstorm chances will be driven by mesoscale processes not well resolved at longer time scale.

..Leitman.. 06/17/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, June 17: TORNADO: 15%; HAIL: 30%; WIND: 30%
Thursday, June 18: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Friday, June 19: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Saturday, June 20: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Sunday, June 21: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, June 22: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, June 23: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, June 24: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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