Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, December 21
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 211923
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025
Valid 212000Z - 221200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.
20z Update
No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below.
..Thornton.. 12/21/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 0957 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025/
Thunderstorm potential will be limited across the CONUS. Strong onshore flow and cold temperatures aloft will pose a risk of a few lightning flashes today and tonight over portions of the WA/OR coast and parts of northern CA. Low-level warm advection and an approaching cold front could result in isolated thunderstorms this afternoon over parts of southern LA/MS, and late tonight over south TX. No severe storms are anticipated today.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Monday, December 22
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Monday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 211646
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1046 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Monday.
Synopsis and Discussion
Minimal thunderstorm potential remains evident across much of the CONUS on Monday, as upper-level ridging is maintained over the central U.S. One exception may be across parts of coastal WA/OR as a mid-level shortwave trough progresses eastward from the eastern Pacific into British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest through Monday afternoon/evening. Even though daytime heating and low-level moisture are forecast to remain limited, cool temperatures aloft and weak MUCAPE associated with the shortwave trough may support occasional lightning flashes with low-topped convection moving inland along the immediate WA/OR Coast.
A plume of mid-level moisture and associated precipitation will impact parts of northern/central CA through the period, although warmer mid-level temperatures compared to locations farther north and negligible forecast instability suggest little potential for lightning. Elsewhere, very weak forcing aloft should limit thunderstorm potential across coastal TX to the central Gulf Coast, even as low-level moisture gradually increases across these areas.
..Gleason.. 12/21/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Tuesday, December 23
Outlook Summary
Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast across the contiguous United States on Tuesday or Tuesday night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 211924
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast across the contiguous United States on Tuesday or Tuesday night.
California
Within large-scale upper troughing over the eastern Pacific, a mid-level shortwave trough and associated jet will overspread much of northern/central CA Tuesday through Tuesday night. An attendant surface low is forecast to develop northward along/near the coast of northern/central CA late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. Ample low-level and deep-layer shear will be present over this region owing to strengthening flow aloft with the approaching shortwave trough. However, considerable uncertainty still exists regarding the depth/quality of low-level moisture and whether enough instability will exist to support a meaningful change for surface-based thunderstorms given the unfavorable time of night and generally modest lapse rates.
Some of the more aggressive guidance (12Z RRFS) suggests that weak but sufficient MLCAPE may develop late Tuesday into early Wednesday to support some threat for strong/gusty winds with thunderstorms as mid-level temperatures gradually cool with the shortwave trough overspreading the CA Coast. Based on a consensus of other available guidance, this potential still appears a bit too uncertain/conditional to include low severe probabilities along the CA Coast at this time. Regardless, the chance for elevated convection remains apparent, and the general thunderstorm area has been expanded across more of CA with this update.
..Gleason.. 12/21/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Wednesday, December 24
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, December 24 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, December 25 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, December 26 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, December 27 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, December 28 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210920 SPC AC 210920
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range model guidance initially shows a pattern featuring an upper ridge over the central CONUS and trough along the West Coast, transitioning to a more progressive flow regime and lowering heights across the Great Plains during the Thursday-Saturday (D5-D7) period. The inland-moving West Coast trough will potentially yield isolated to scattered thunderstorms on Wednesday into early Thursday over portions of southern and central CA and perhaps a localized risk for a couple of stronger thunderstorms. Details concerning this convective scenario and overall magnitude of severe risk preclude severe highlights. Farther east, some moisture return northward into the southern Great Plains and MS Valley through Friday will likely be modulated by frontal advancements during the latter part of extended period.
..Smith.. 12/21/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, December 25
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, December 24 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, December 25 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, December 26 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, December 27 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, December 28 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210920 SPC AC 210920
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range model guidance initially shows a pattern featuring an upper ridge over the central CONUS and trough along the West Coast, transitioning to a more progressive flow regime and lowering heights across the Great Plains during the Thursday-Saturday (D5-D7) period. The inland-moving West Coast trough will potentially yield isolated to scattered thunderstorms on Wednesday into early Thursday over portions of southern and central CA and perhaps a localized risk for a couple of stronger thunderstorms. Details concerning this convective scenario and overall magnitude of severe risk preclude severe highlights. Farther east, some moisture return northward into the southern Great Plains and MS Valley through Friday will likely be modulated by frontal advancements during the latter part of extended period.
..Smith.. 12/21/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, December 26
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, December 24 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, December 25 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, December 26 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, December 27 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, December 28 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210920 SPC AC 210920
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range model guidance initially shows a pattern featuring an upper ridge over the central CONUS and trough along the West Coast, transitioning to a more progressive flow regime and lowering heights across the Great Plains during the Thursday-Saturday (D5-D7) period. The inland-moving West Coast trough will potentially yield isolated to scattered thunderstorms on Wednesday into early Thursday over portions of southern and central CA and perhaps a localized risk for a couple of stronger thunderstorms. Details concerning this convective scenario and overall magnitude of severe risk preclude severe highlights. Farther east, some moisture return northward into the southern Great Plains and MS Valley through Friday will likely be modulated by frontal advancements during the latter part of extended period.
..Smith.. 12/21/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, December 27
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, December 24 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, December 25 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, December 26 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, December 27 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, December 28 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210920 SPC AC 210920
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range model guidance initially shows a pattern featuring an upper ridge over the central CONUS and trough along the West Coast, transitioning to a more progressive flow regime and lowering heights across the Great Plains during the Thursday-Saturday (D5-D7) period. The inland-moving West Coast trough will potentially yield isolated to scattered thunderstorms on Wednesday into early Thursday over portions of southern and central CA and perhaps a localized risk for a couple of stronger thunderstorms. Details concerning this convective scenario and overall magnitude of severe risk preclude severe highlights. Farther east, some moisture return northward into the southern Great Plains and MS Valley through Friday will likely be modulated by frontal advancements during the latter part of extended period.
..Smith.. 12/21/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, December 28
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, December 24 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, December 25 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, December 26 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, December 27 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, December 28 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210920 SPC AC 210920
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range model guidance initially shows a pattern featuring an upper ridge over the central CONUS and trough along the West Coast, transitioning to a more progressive flow regime and lowering heights across the Great Plains during the Thursday-Saturday (D5-D7) period. The inland-moving West Coast trough will potentially yield isolated to scattered thunderstorms on Wednesday into early Thursday over portions of southern and central CA and perhaps a localized risk for a couple of stronger thunderstorms. Details concerning this convective scenario and overall magnitude of severe risk preclude severe highlights. Farther east, some moisture return northward into the southern Great Plains and MS Valley through Friday will likely be modulated by frontal advancements during the latter part of extended period.
..Smith.. 12/21/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, December 21
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Monday, December 22
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, December 23
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Wednesday, December 24
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, December 25
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, December 26
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, December 27
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, December 28
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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