Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, November 3
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with potential for isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or two will be possible today from the Sabine and Lower Mississippi Valleys northward into the Mid Mississippi Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 030534
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Mon Nov 02 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with potential for isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or two will be possible today from the Sabine and Lower Mississippi Valleys northward into the Mid Mississippi Valley.
Sabine River Valley/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley
An upper-level trough will move across the Great Plains today, as cyclonic south-southwesterly flow precedes the system over the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the system, a north-to-south corridor of low-level moisture will be in place along and ahead of a pre-frontal trough. Near the moist axis, a long broken line of thunderstorms will be ongoing at the start of the period from western Missouri southward into western Arkansas and east Texas. This line will progress eastward into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley during the day. As it does so, surface temperatures will warm ahead of the line allowing for weak destabilization. Any potential for moderate instability will be minimized by abundant cloud cover. Over the top of this airmass, moderate to strong deep-layer shear will be present, which will support an isolated severe threat during the afternoon and evening. Line segments that can become semi-organized will have potential for isolated severe wind gusts. In addition, a marginal tornado threat will be possible with any QLCS structures. The severe threat will be minimized by poor lapse rates. The threat could persist into the late evening or even into the overnight period as the line moves eastward across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley, toward a strengthening low-level jet.
..Broyles/Weinman.. 11/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Wednesday, November 4
Outlook Summary
Severe storms are unlikely on Wednesday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 030642
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CST Tue Nov 03 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe storms are unlikely on Wednesday.
Synopsis
A stacked low will move from IA into Upper MI on Wednesday, with a leading upper wave moving northeastward out of the OH Valley. Behind this system, another progressive shortwave trough will move across the Four Corners states.
As the surface low occludes and moves into the Upper Great Lakes, the southward-extending surface trough will weaken across the OH/TN Valleys. Mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will remain over much of the Southeast, with drier air farther north into the Mid Atlantic with high pressure. Scattered thunderstorms are likely during the day ahead of the boundary from KY southward into AL/GA, with poor lapse rates and the ejecting system to the north mitigating strong storm potential.
There is a low chance of a few strong storms near a warm front that will lift across eastern AL into western GA during the day. At this time, it appears the very poor low to midlevel lapse rates will mitigate storm severity.
..Jewell.. 11/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Thursday, November 5
Outlook Summary
Severe storms are unlikely on Thursday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 030810
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 AM CST Tue Nov 03 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe storms are unlikely on Thursday.
Synopsis
A shortwave trough will move across the central Plains and into the MS Valley where it will phase with the trough extending southward across the Great Lakes. This combined positive-tilt trough will then sweep eastward toward the OH and TN valleys overnight.
Well ahead of this trough, southerly winds will bring 60s F dewpoints northward across the Mid Atlantic, though instability will be relatively weak. Isolated daytime convection may occur from GA into the Carolinas, but lapse rates and shear will both be poor. Scattered showers may persist overnight as a weak surface trough develops and southwest low-level winds maintain a moist air mass.
..Jewell.. 11/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Friday, November 6
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, November 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, November 7 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, November 8 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, November 9 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, November 10 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030910 SPC AC 030910
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0310 AM CST Tue Nov 03 2026
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
On Fri/D4, a positive-tilt upper trough is forecast to move across the Appalachians, with a 50+ kt midlevel speed max moving into the Mid Atlantic. At least mid 60s F dewpoints will already be in place from GA into the Carolinas and eastern VA ahead of a developing cold front, which will likely lead to weak destabilization. Indications are that scattered rain and thunderstorms may be ongoing early in the day from the Savannah River to the DelMarVa, which will limit further destabilization. Moderate deep-layer shear along with sufficient instability could aid at least a low-end wind potential.
From Sat/D5 through Tue/D8, high pressure is forecast to spread across most of the CONUS, shunting any appreciable moisture and instability offshore.
..Jewell.. 11/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, November 7
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, November 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, November 7 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, November 8 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, November 9 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, November 10 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030910 SPC AC 030910
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0310 AM CST Tue Nov 03 2026
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
On Fri/D4, a positive-tilt upper trough is forecast to move across the Appalachians, with a 50+ kt midlevel speed max moving into the Mid Atlantic. At least mid 60s F dewpoints will already be in place from GA into the Carolinas and eastern VA ahead of a developing cold front, which will likely lead to weak destabilization. Indications are that scattered rain and thunderstorms may be ongoing early in the day from the Savannah River to the DelMarVa, which will limit further destabilization. Moderate deep-layer shear along with sufficient instability could aid at least a low-end wind potential.
From Sat/D5 through Tue/D8, high pressure is forecast to spread across most of the CONUS, shunting any appreciable moisture and instability offshore.
..Jewell.. 11/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, November 8
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, November 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, November 7 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, November 8 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, November 9 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, November 10 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030910 SPC AC 030910
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0310 AM CST Tue Nov 03 2026
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
On Fri/D4, a positive-tilt upper trough is forecast to move across the Appalachians, with a 50+ kt midlevel speed max moving into the Mid Atlantic. At least mid 60s F dewpoints will already be in place from GA into the Carolinas and eastern VA ahead of a developing cold front, which will likely lead to weak destabilization. Indications are that scattered rain and thunderstorms may be ongoing early in the day from the Savannah River to the DelMarVa, which will limit further destabilization. Moderate deep-layer shear along with sufficient instability could aid at least a low-end wind potential.
From Sat/D5 through Tue/D8, high pressure is forecast to spread across most of the CONUS, shunting any appreciable moisture and instability offshore.
..Jewell.. 11/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, November 9
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, November 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, November 7 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, November 8 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, November 9 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, November 10 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030910 SPC AC 030910
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0310 AM CST Tue Nov 03 2026
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
On Fri/D4, a positive-tilt upper trough is forecast to move across the Appalachians, with a 50+ kt midlevel speed max moving into the Mid Atlantic. At least mid 60s F dewpoints will already be in place from GA into the Carolinas and eastern VA ahead of a developing cold front, which will likely lead to weak destabilization. Indications are that scattered rain and thunderstorms may be ongoing early in the day from the Savannah River to the DelMarVa, which will limit further destabilization. Moderate deep-layer shear along with sufficient instability could aid at least a low-end wind potential.
From Sat/D5 through Tue/D8, high pressure is forecast to spread across most of the CONUS, shunting any appreciable moisture and instability offshore.
..Jewell.. 11/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, November 10
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, November 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, November 7 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, November 8 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, November 9 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, November 10 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030910 SPC AC 030910
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0310 AM CST Tue Nov 03 2026
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
On Fri/D4, a positive-tilt upper trough is forecast to move across the Appalachians, with a 50+ kt midlevel speed max moving into the Mid Atlantic. At least mid 60s F dewpoints will already be in place from GA into the Carolinas and eastern VA ahead of a developing cold front, which will likely lead to weak destabilization. Indications are that scattered rain and thunderstorms may be ongoing early in the day from the Savannah River to the DelMarVa, which will limit further destabilization. Moderate deep-layer shear along with sufficient instability could aid at least a low-end wind potential.
From Sat/D5 through Tue/D8, high pressure is forecast to spread across most of the CONUS, shunting any appreciable moisture and instability offshore.
..Jewell.. 11/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, November 3
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Wednesday, November 4
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Thursday, November 5
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Friday, November 6
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, November 7
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, November 8
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, November 9
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, November 10
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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