Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, November 11
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms capable of producing severe hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado are forecast this afternoon and evening across parts of eastern Illinois into Indiana, western/central Kentucky, and middle Tennessee. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across the east-central Florida Peninsula.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 112000
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026
Valid 112000Z - 121200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN INDIANA…WESTERN KENTUCKY…AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms capable of producing severe hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado are forecast this afternoon and evening across parts of eastern Illinois into Indiana, western/central Kentucky, and middle Tennessee. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across the east-central Florida Peninsula.
20Z Update
A Slight Risk was introduced for parts of central/southern IN, western KY, and far southeastern IL – driven by 15-percent hail and wind probabilities. As lower 50s dewpoints (along/ahead of the cold front) continue spreading eastward beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates, a corridor of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE should support a gradual increase in updraft intensity this afternoon into the evening. An elongated hodograph (around 30-40 kt of effective shear) along with increasing forcing for ascent should promote a mix of organized clusters and perhaps supercell structures capable of producing scattered severe hail (around 1-1.5 inches in diameter) and damaging wind gusts. See MCD #2449 for more details.
..Weinman.. 11/11/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026/
Midwest/Lower Ohio Valley into Middle Tennessee
Recent satellite imagery shows a lead shortwave trough moving into northern IL, with another shortwave trough farther back northwest moving into the Mid MO Valley. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing near the lead shortwave. Thunderstorm intensity has decreased over the last half hour or so as these storms move into an environment with less elevated buoyancy (as observed by the 12Z ILX sounding). The lead shortwave is forecast to continue eastward into the OH Valley while the second shortwave continues more southeastward into the Lower OH Valley vicinity. The surface low currently over the IA/IL border vicinity is forecast to progress eastward with the lead wave while an attendant cold front sweeps southeastward through the mid MS Valley/Mid-South, and lower OH Valley this afternoon and evening.
Increasing low-level moisture is anticipated ahead of this front, advecting northeastward into the region from the Ozarks/Mid-South region. Recent surface analysis shows the mid 50s dewpoints are still in northern AR, so there is some question as to how far northeastward the greater low-level moisture will reach before frontal passage. Current expectation is for the best overlap between low-level moisture (and associated buoyancy) with the stronger large-scale ascent will occur across southern IN and adjacent western KY. Here, the combination of weak buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around 500-800 J/kg) and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear oriented largely orthogonal to the surface cold front should support a mix of bowing clusters and supercells. Isolated hail and damaging gusts will be the primary risks. Hail is more likely with any more cellular activity and damaging gusts more likely with any fast-moving bowing segments. Modestly enhanced low-level shear may also support a low-probability tornado risk, but a tendency for low-level flow to veer to westerly should reduce effective SRH with time through the late afternoon/evening. The isolated severe risk should diminish with eastward extent this evening across the lower OH Valley as front outruns the low-level moisture and daytime heating wanes.
Central/Southern Florida Peninsula
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across the central/southern FL Peninsula this afternoon. Glancing large-scale ascent associated with a weak mid-level perturbation over the Southeast should aid this convective development. A warm layer around 700 mb could limit overall buoyancy, but 500 mb temperatures will be around -9 to -11 deg C and most forecast sounding still show 1500+ J/kg of uninhibited MLCAPE this afternoon. Moderate deep-layer shear will exists across the region as well. These conditions appear supportive of marginally severe hail and gusty winds within the stronger cores, which appear most probable along the east-central FL Coast.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Thursday, November 12
Outlook Summary
A couple of damaging gusts or marginally severe hail may accompany one of the stronger storms across the Mid-Atlantic tomorrow (Thursday) afternoon.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 111730
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC
### SUMMARY
A couple of damaging gusts or marginally severe hail may accompany one of the stronger storms across the Mid-Atlantic tomorrow (Thursday) afternoon.
Synopsis
A broad upper trough will overspread the eastern U.S. while an upper ridge builds over the Rockies and pronounced mid-level impulse impinges on the CA coastline tomorrow (Thursday). A surface low will accompany the East Coast upper trough and traverse the Mid-Atlantic during the day. A surface cold front will sweep across the Mid-Atlantic, resulting in enough deep-layer ascent amid a marginally buoyant airmass to support scattered thunderstorm development, one or two of which may be severe. Surface high pressure and a stable low-level airmass will usher in behind the cold front over the most of the CONUS, limiting thunderstorm development.
Portions of the Mid-Atlantic
A relatively cool low-level airmass (e.g. near 60 F surface temperatures) is expected across the Mid-Atlantic given scattered to widespread cloud cover and precipitation across the warm sector preceding the low. Nonetheless, 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates will overspread mid 50s F surface dewpoints, amid minimal MLCINH, yielding up to 500 J/kg MLCAPE. Though stronger 500 mb flow will overspread VA into the Carolinas, strong enough southwesterly mid-level wind fields will yield 40+ kts of effective bulk shear. This low CAPE/moderate shear profile may support sustained multicells and transient supercells capable of producing strong to potentially damaging wind gusts and perhaps an instance of marginally severe hail tomorrow afternoon.
..Squitieri.. 11/11/2026
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Friday, November 13
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected Friday into early Saturday morning.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 111923
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected Friday into early Saturday morning.
Synopsis
A broad upper trough will prevail over the eastern CONUS while a broad, negatively tilted upper trough deepens west of the Rockies on Friday. Surface high pressure will reinforce a stable airmass east of the Rockies, limiting thunderstorm development over most of the CONUS. A few lightning flashes are possible across portions of the Desert Southwest into the southern High Plains in association with a warm-air advection regime preceding the upper trough. A couple of lightning flashes may also occur along the Pacific coastline closer to the upper trough in association with a plume of cooler temperatures aloft.
..Squitieri.. 11/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Saturday, November 14
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, November 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, November 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, November 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, November 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, November 18 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 111000 SPC AC 111000
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
Over the coming weekend, a mid-level shortwave trough will move from the Desert Southwest into the southern Plains. Ahead of the trough, moisture advection is forecast across much of Texas and Oklahoma, where surface dewpoints could increase into the 50s and 60s F. This would contribute to weak instability over parts of the southern Plains Sunday afternoon. Uncertainty exists on where the northern extent of the instability will be but it seems likely that enough instability will be in place by late Sunday afternoon for an isolated severe threat in parts of central and north Texas. As the system moves eastward across the Southeast from Monday to Wednesday, thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the trough each day from the central Gulf Coast to the Florida Peninsula. The best chance for an isolated severe threat would be on Wednesday over the Florida Peninsula where an unstable airmass is forecast as the trough passes.
..Broyles.. 11/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, November 15
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, November 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, November 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, November 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, November 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, November 18 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 111000 SPC AC 111000
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
Over the coming weekend, a mid-level shortwave trough will move from the Desert Southwest into the southern Plains. Ahead of the trough, moisture advection is forecast across much of Texas and Oklahoma, where surface dewpoints could increase into the 50s and 60s F. This would contribute to weak instability over parts of the southern Plains Sunday afternoon. Uncertainty exists on where the northern extent of the instability will be but it seems likely that enough instability will be in place by late Sunday afternoon for an isolated severe threat in parts of central and north Texas. As the system moves eastward across the Southeast from Monday to Wednesday, thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the trough each day from the central Gulf Coast to the Florida Peninsula. The best chance for an isolated severe threat would be on Wednesday over the Florida Peninsula where an unstable airmass is forecast as the trough passes.
..Broyles.. 11/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, November 16
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, November 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, November 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, November 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, November 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, November 18 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 111000 SPC AC 111000
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
Over the coming weekend, a mid-level shortwave trough will move from the Desert Southwest into the southern Plains. Ahead of the trough, moisture advection is forecast across much of Texas and Oklahoma, where surface dewpoints could increase into the 50s and 60s F. This would contribute to weak instability over parts of the southern Plains Sunday afternoon. Uncertainty exists on where the northern extent of the instability will be but it seems likely that enough instability will be in place by late Sunday afternoon for an isolated severe threat in parts of central and north Texas. As the system moves eastward across the Southeast from Monday to Wednesday, thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the trough each day from the central Gulf Coast to the Florida Peninsula. The best chance for an isolated severe threat would be on Wednesday over the Florida Peninsula where an unstable airmass is forecast as the trough passes.
..Broyles.. 11/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, November 17
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, November 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, November 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, November 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, November 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, November 18 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 111000 SPC AC 111000
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
Over the coming weekend, a mid-level shortwave trough will move from the Desert Southwest into the southern Plains. Ahead of the trough, moisture advection is forecast across much of Texas and Oklahoma, where surface dewpoints could increase into the 50s and 60s F. This would contribute to weak instability over parts of the southern Plains Sunday afternoon. Uncertainty exists on where the northern extent of the instability will be but it seems likely that enough instability will be in place by late Sunday afternoon for an isolated severe threat in parts of central and north Texas. As the system moves eastward across the Southeast from Monday to Wednesday, thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the trough each day from the central Gulf Coast to the Florida Peninsula. The best chance for an isolated severe threat would be on Wednesday over the Florida Peninsula where an unstable airmass is forecast as the trough passes.
..Broyles.. 11/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, November 18
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, November 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, November 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, November 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, November 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, November 18 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 111000 SPC AC 111000
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
Over the coming weekend, a mid-level shortwave trough will move from the Desert Southwest into the southern Plains. Ahead of the trough, moisture advection is forecast across much of Texas and Oklahoma, where surface dewpoints could increase into the 50s and 60s F. This would contribute to weak instability over parts of the southern Plains Sunday afternoon. Uncertainty exists on where the northern extent of the instability will be but it seems likely that enough instability will be in place by late Sunday afternoon for an isolated severe threat in parts of central and north Texas. As the system moves eastward across the Southeast from Monday to Wednesday, thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the trough each day from the central Gulf Coast to the Florida Peninsula. The best chance for an isolated severe threat would be on Wednesday over the Florida Peninsula where an unstable airmass is forecast as the trough passes.
..Broyles.. 11/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, November 11
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Thursday, November 12
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Friday, November 13
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Saturday, November 14
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, November 15
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, November 16
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, November 17
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, November 18
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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