Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, October 8
Outlook Summary
Localized severe thunderstorms may occur across the central portion of the Florida Peninsula and/or across Iowa tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind low
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 081932
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026
Valid 082000Z - 091200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND IOWA
### SUMMARY
Localized severe thunderstorms may occur across the central portion of the Florida Peninsula and/or across Iowa tonight.
20Z Update
The forecast remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. See the previous discussion below for details.
..Weinman.. 10/08/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026/
Florida Peninsula
Visible-satellite imagery shows a cloud shield generally near and north of a residual frontal zone draped across the central portion of the FL Peninsula. Filtered sunshine generally south of the I-4 corridor will contribute to weak destabilization in the presence of a tropical airmass characterized by mid-upper 70s deg F surface dewpoints. Model forecast soundings show moderate effective shear (25-30 kt) and a veering wind profile through a deep layer. Given the very moist boundary layer coupled with proximity to the frontal zone and shear supporting potentially transient weak rotation, a brief tornado or waterspout is possible.
Iowa
Isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms are forecast tonight in tandem with around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE developing as warm advection and isentropic ascent increase to the northeast of a northeastward-advancing warm front. With effective shear in the cloud-bearing layer expected to increase to 40+ kt, the possibility exists for a few elevated supercells late this evening into the overnight, with a few instances of marginally severe hail possible.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Friday, October 9
Outlook Summary
A risk for tornadoes may develop across northeastern Gulf coastal areas late Friday into early Saturday ahead of Isaias.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 081725
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/BIG BEND VICINITY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA/SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA
### SUMMARY
A risk for tornadoes may develop across northeastern Gulf coastal areas late Friday into early Saturday ahead of Isaias.
Discussion
Models continue to indicate substantive amplification of mid/upper troughing within the mid-latitude westerlies, across British Columbia through the Pacific Northwest Friday through Friday night. As this occurs, downstream ridging is forecast to build a bit further while translating east of the Canadian Prairies/northern U.S. Great Plains through northwestern Ontario and the upper Great Lakes by early Saturday. Farther east, large-scale mid-level troughing likely will continue slowly across and east of the New England/Canadian Maritimes vicinity. In lower latitudes, mid/upper troughing forced southeastward within a weaker branch of westerlies may contribute to a northeastward acceleration of Tropical Storm Rachel across the lower latitude eastern Pacific. An upper-level trough farther downstream is forecast to accelerate northeast of the Texas coastal plain and contribute to the evolution of a mid-level low across or just east of the lower Mississippi Valley, as it interacts with Hurricane Isaias.
The spread concerning the evolution of the increasingly sheared hurricane remains sizable, particularly as it progresses across and inland of northeastern Gulf coastal areas. In general, it still appears most probable that it will take a north to northwestward turn after migrating inland near/east of Mobile Bay. This has been preceded by an influx of dry/potentially cool boundary-layer air across much of the northeastern Gulf Coast states through Carolinas, which may be reinforced later today through Friday on the southwestern flank of building surface ridging becoming centered across the northern Mid Atlantic states.
Northeastern Gulf Coast region
The risk for tornadoes in association with Isaias remains unclear for Friday through Friday night. Based on the forecast storm track and speed, it appears possible, if not probable, that the favorable right front quadrant (with respect to storm motion) forcing for ascent and vertical shear will spread north-northwestward inland of coastal areas before near-surface thermodynamic profiles destabilize. As this approaches southwestern Alabama and western Florida coastal areas prior to 10/00Z, supercell structures with potential to produce waterspouts may impact offshore waters. However, it is not clear that near-surface destabilization will maintain intensity across the coastal waters and inland, prior to the onset of mid-level warming and subsidence. Barring a substantive change to the forecast track, it is possible that severe probabilities could be reduced across this area in later outlooks for this period.
Closer to the Tallahassee and Apalachicola vicinities, and eastward across the Florida Big Bend, a gradual inland boundary-layer moistening and destabilization appears possible later Friday evening into early Saturday, to the east and southeast of the center of Isaias. Coincident with the continuing presence of at least sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs, forcing ascent to the east of the developing dry slot may be sufficient to maintain a band or bands of convective development, with transient embedded supercell structures posing a risk for tornadoes.
..Kerr.. 10/08/2026
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Saturday, October 10
Outlook Summary
A corridor of tornado risk may develop out of the Florida Panhandle and into parts of eastern Alabama and Georgia Saturday through Saturday night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 081930
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND/PANHANDLE AND EASTERN ALABAMA INTO GEORGIA
### SUMMARY
A corridor of tornado risk may develop out of the Florida Panhandle and into parts of eastern Alabama and Georgia Saturday through Saturday night.
Discussion
Models indicate considerable further amplification of large-scale mid/upper troughing along much of the U.S. Pacific coast Saturday through Saturday night. It appears that this may include the east-northeastward acceleration of a short wave trough into/across southern California and northern Baja coastal areas, preceded by the inland acceleration of remnants of Rachel into the lower Colorado Valley by 12Z Sunday.
Downstream, broad mid/upper ridging is forecast to build within the stronger mid-latitude westerlies, east of the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard. However, within a lingering weaker branch of westerlies, a developing mid-level low, including remnants of Isaias, is forecast to begin gradually turning northward and northeastward, around the northwestern periphery of westward building mid/upper ridging across the subtropical western Atlantic through the northern Caribbean and southeastern Gulf Basin.
Southeast
The weakening low-level circulation center of Isaias is forecast to continue accelerating northward, across western Alabama during the day Saturday, before slowing across the lower Tennessee Valley Saturday night. As it progresses away from the Gulf coast, and increasingly displaced from the better low-level moisture return off the Gulf, the associated risk for severe weather seems likely to diminish.
Guidance suggests that the return of higher low-level moisture content will remain focused along/east of weak surface troughing, developing along the southwestern flank of a surface ridge slowly shifting across and offshore of middle/northern Atlantic coastal areas. It appears that this will generally set up across Georgia into parts of the Carolinas, where boundary-layer dew points increasing into the 70s F probably will contribute to at least modest CAPE on the order of 1000+ J/kg, despite weak lapse rates. Coupled with the maintenance of at least moderate southerly 850 flow, and enlarged low-level hodographs, forcing for ascent downstream of the approaching mid-level low/trough may support continuing convective development, including supercell structures, Saturday into Saturday night. Some of this activity may pose a risk for tornadoes and/or locally damaging wind gusts.
Due to lingering forecast uncertainties, including those associated with the extended time frame involved, the Slight Risk area has not been changed at the present time. However, this may need to be adjusted in later outlooks for this period.
..Kerr.. 10/08/2026
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Sunday, October 11
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, October 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, October 12 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, October 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, October 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, October 15 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080821 SPC AC 080821
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0321 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
On Sun/D4, a shortwave trough and surface low (previously associated with the tropical cyclone) will move east across the TN/OH Valleys, and toward the Mid Atlantic Sunday night. A warm front and northward surge of moisture will occur from GA/Carolinas into VA/DelMarVa, resulting in at least a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE. Substantial rain and thunderstorms are likely to exist over the region, and therefore boundary layer warming/destabilization is in question. Most models show little if any daytime heating. As such, predictability is low at this time, but at least low severe probabilities could be added in later outlooks as the scenario evolves.
To the west, a shortwave trough with tropical remnants will affect southern CA and AZ, with strong southwest winds aloft. Substantial model differences exist regarding destabilization due to increasing clouds and rain, though some severe wind and even hail potential cannot be ruled out where instability is locally higher. This area too may see at least low severe probabilities in later outlooks as predictability increases.
For the remainder of the period through Thu/D8, a potential western trough ejection may occur into the Plains, with the strongest instability on or after Wed/D7 as moisture return becomes more established with upper 60s F dewpoints possible from TX into OK and KS. As such, this area will also be monitored as the event nears, and as trough timing becomes more predictable.
..Jewell.. 10/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, October 12
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, October 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, October 12 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, October 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, October 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, October 15 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080821 SPC AC 080821
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0321 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
On Sun/D4, a shortwave trough and surface low (previously associated with the tropical cyclone) will move east across the TN/OH Valleys, and toward the Mid Atlantic Sunday night. A warm front and northward surge of moisture will occur from GA/Carolinas into VA/DelMarVa, resulting in at least a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE. Substantial rain and thunderstorms are likely to exist over the region, and therefore boundary layer warming/destabilization is in question. Most models show little if any daytime heating. As such, predictability is low at this time, but at least low severe probabilities could be added in later outlooks as the scenario evolves.
To the west, a shortwave trough with tropical remnants will affect southern CA and AZ, with strong southwest winds aloft. Substantial model differences exist regarding destabilization due to increasing clouds and rain, though some severe wind and even hail potential cannot be ruled out where instability is locally higher. This area too may see at least low severe probabilities in later outlooks as predictability increases.
For the remainder of the period through Thu/D8, a potential western trough ejection may occur into the Plains, with the strongest instability on or after Wed/D7 as moisture return becomes more established with upper 60s F dewpoints possible from TX into OK and KS. As such, this area will also be monitored as the event nears, and as trough timing becomes more predictable.
..Jewell.. 10/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, October 13
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, October 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, October 12 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, October 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, October 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, October 15 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080821 SPC AC 080821
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0321 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
On Sun/D4, a shortwave trough and surface low (previously associated with the tropical cyclone) will move east across the TN/OH Valleys, and toward the Mid Atlantic Sunday night. A warm front and northward surge of moisture will occur from GA/Carolinas into VA/DelMarVa, resulting in at least a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE. Substantial rain and thunderstorms are likely to exist over the region, and therefore boundary layer warming/destabilization is in question. Most models show little if any daytime heating. As such, predictability is low at this time, but at least low severe probabilities could be added in later outlooks as the scenario evolves.
To the west, a shortwave trough with tropical remnants will affect southern CA and AZ, with strong southwest winds aloft. Substantial model differences exist regarding destabilization due to increasing clouds and rain, though some severe wind and even hail potential cannot be ruled out where instability is locally higher. This area too may see at least low severe probabilities in later outlooks as predictability increases.
For the remainder of the period through Thu/D8, a potential western trough ejection may occur into the Plains, with the strongest instability on or after Wed/D7 as moisture return becomes more established with upper 60s F dewpoints possible from TX into OK and KS. As such, this area will also be monitored as the event nears, and as trough timing becomes more predictable.
..Jewell.. 10/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, October 14
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, October 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, October 12 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, October 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, October 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, October 15 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080821 SPC AC 080821
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0321 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
On Sun/D4, a shortwave trough and surface low (previously associated with the tropical cyclone) will move east across the TN/OH Valleys, and toward the Mid Atlantic Sunday night. A warm front and northward surge of moisture will occur from GA/Carolinas into VA/DelMarVa, resulting in at least a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE. Substantial rain and thunderstorms are likely to exist over the region, and therefore boundary layer warming/destabilization is in question. Most models show little if any daytime heating. As such, predictability is low at this time, but at least low severe probabilities could be added in later outlooks as the scenario evolves.
To the west, a shortwave trough with tropical remnants will affect southern CA and AZ, with strong southwest winds aloft. Substantial model differences exist regarding destabilization due to increasing clouds and rain, though some severe wind and even hail potential cannot be ruled out where instability is locally higher. This area too may see at least low severe probabilities in later outlooks as predictability increases.
For the remainder of the period through Thu/D8, a potential western trough ejection may occur into the Plains, with the strongest instability on or after Wed/D7 as moisture return becomes more established with upper 60s F dewpoints possible from TX into OK and KS. As such, this area will also be monitored as the event nears, and as trough timing becomes more predictable.
..Jewell.. 10/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, October 15
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, October 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, October 12 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, October 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, October 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, October 15 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080821 SPC AC 080821
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0321 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
On Sun/D4, a shortwave trough and surface low (previously associated with the tropical cyclone) will move east across the TN/OH Valleys, and toward the Mid Atlantic Sunday night. A warm front and northward surge of moisture will occur from GA/Carolinas into VA/DelMarVa, resulting in at least a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE. Substantial rain and thunderstorms are likely to exist over the region, and therefore boundary layer warming/destabilization is in question. Most models show little if any daytime heating. As such, predictability is low at this time, but at least low severe probabilities could be added in later outlooks as the scenario evolves.
To the west, a shortwave trough with tropical remnants will affect southern CA and AZ, with strong southwest winds aloft. Substantial model differences exist regarding destabilization due to increasing clouds and rain, though some severe wind and even hail potential cannot be ruled out where instability is locally higher. This area too may see at least low severe probabilities in later outlooks as predictability increases.
For the remainder of the period through Thu/D8, a potential western trough ejection may occur into the Plains, with the strongest instability on or after Wed/D7 as moisture return becomes more established with upper 60s F dewpoints possible from TX into OK and KS. As such, this area will also be monitored as the event nears, and as trough timing becomes more predictable.
..Jewell.. 10/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, October 8
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: low
- Friday, October 9
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Saturday, October 10
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Sunday, October 11
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, October 12
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, October 13
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, October 14
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, October 15
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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