Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, March 26
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this evening across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley. Large to very large hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging winds will all be possible.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 30%
hail 30%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 270047
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026
Valid 270100Z - 271200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this evening across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley. Large to very large hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging winds will all be possible.
Midwest/Ohio Valley
The latest water vapor imagery shows west-northwesterly mid-level flow over the southern Great Lakes, Midwest and Ohio Valley, with a subtle shortwave trough evident within the flow over far northwest Illinois. At the surface, a cold front is located from central Illinois east-northeastward into north-central Ohio. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are ongoing near the front, extending northward into the cooler air about 150 statute miles. The best environment currently appears to be located from far eastern Indiana eastward to east of Columbus, Ohio, where RAP analysis shows a west-to-east axis of MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. RAP forecast soundings near this axis of instability have 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km. Cells are currently discrete within this environment, which will continue to favor supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter appear likely with the more intense supercells. In addition, low-level lapse rates are also steep, which will support a wind-damage threat. A few gusts above 70 knots will be possible. Also, forecast soundings within this unstable airmass have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 400 to 450 m2/s2 range, suggesting that a tornado threat will continue with the more intense supercells. The severe threat will likely be maximized within this corridor over the next few hours…see MCD 293. The severe threat should expand eastward across far eastern Ohio and into western Pennsylvania.
Further west into parts of Indiana and Illinois, the strongest storms are currently located near and to the east of Indianapolis. Although the storms are not as strong westward into central and northern Illinois, convective intensity is expected to increase as the shortwave trough moves eastward across the state, along with the exit region of a mid-level jet. Scattered severe storms are expected to develop over the next couple of hours, and a cluster or line could become organized…see MCD 294. Isolated severe storms will also be possible further west into parts of Missouri and far eastern Kansas later this evening.
..Broyles.. 03/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Friday, March 27
Outlook Summary
Isolated thunderstorms are expected from the Ohio Valley into the Carolinas Friday morning into the afternoon, but severe thunderstorm potential appears limited.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 261626
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated thunderstorms are expected from the Ohio Valley into the Carolinas Friday morning into the afternoon, but severe thunderstorm potential appears limited.
Synopsis
An upper trough will pivot across the eastern U.S. on Friday. Stronger deep-layer west/southwesterly flow will remain focused across portions of the Midwest/Great Lakes into the Northeast. Meanwhile, at the surface a cold front extending from the Mid-Atlantic to the southern Plains will develop south/southeast through the period, moving offshore by early Saturday. Ahead of the front, modest boundary-layer moisture (upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints) will be in place across the VA Piedmont into the Carolinas. Steep midlevel lapse rates around 6.5-7 C/km are expected across the region, and will aid in weak destabilization near the front. NAM and RAP forecast soundings maintain capping across VA before the front moves through around midday. Further south across portions of NC, stronger heating may allow for sufficient mixing and erosion of weak midlevel capping. A couple of surface-based thunderstorms could develop near the front and produce gusty winds. However, overall severe potential is expected to be limited by weak instability and mostly anafrontal convective processes.
Further west, isolated thunderstorms will be ongoing Friday morning near/just behind the cold front into the Ohio Valley. This activity should diminish with time and southward extent through the day.
..Leitman.. 03/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Saturday, March 28
Outlook Summary
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Saturday afternoon across portions of the Florida peninsula, but the potential for severe thunderstorms is low.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 261844
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Saturday afternoon across portions of the Florida peninsula, but the potential for severe thunderstorms is low.
Synopsis
Northwesterly flow aloft will deamplify as an upper trough moves offshore the eastern U.S. on Saturday. At the surface, a cold front will extend across the northern Gulf into the FL Peninsula Saturday morning. As the front develops southward through the day, isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central/southern FL Peninsula. Modest instability and weak vertical shear will preclude severe thunderstorm potential. Elsewhere, a dry and stable airmass will reside across much of the CONUS in the wake of the prior cold frontal passage.
..Leitman.. 03/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Sunday, March 29
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, March 29 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, March 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, March 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, April 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, April 2 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260848 SPC AC 260848
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026
Valid 291200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe weather potential will remain low through the end of the upcoming weekend, and while a gradual increase in severe weather potential is anticipated through next week, predictability remains limited. Extended-range deterministic and ensemble solutions continue to generally show good agreement in the eastward translation of the upper ridge currently over the Southwest towards the East Coast through the middle of next week. This will not only result in increasing southwesterly flow over the central CONUS, but will also promote lee troughing/cyclogenesis with an attendant uptick in moisture return into the Plains/MS Valley.
Recent GEFS forecasts show high confidence in a return of slightly above seasonal moisture into the eastern Plains and Midwest by the D5/Monday to D6/Tuesday time frame. Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to generally increase during this period as weak impulses embedded within the broader southwest flow regime overspread the returning moisture. Based on more bullish deterministic solutions, some severe risk may materialize across the Midwest late D5/Monday into D6/Tuesday within a warm frontal zone, and potentially across the central Plains on D7/Wednesday or D8/Thursday as a cold front pushes southeast in tandem with the intensification of a surface low.
While these signals are noted, run-to-run variability among deterministic guidance remains fairly high regarding the evolution/placement of surface features and convective environments beyond D6/Tuesday. Latest GEFS and ECENS guidance, as well as long-range ensemble clustering and extended calibrated guidance, show a substantial increase in variance by mid-week, which implies limited confidence in any particular solution. While not surprising at this range and with an upper-level regime shift yet to occur, it remains unclear when predictability of any mid-week severe threat will substantially improve.
..Moore.. 03/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, March 30
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, March 29 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, March 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, March 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, April 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, April 2 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260848 SPC AC 260848
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026
Valid 291200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe weather potential will remain low through the end of the upcoming weekend, and while a gradual increase in severe weather potential is anticipated through next week, predictability remains limited. Extended-range deterministic and ensemble solutions continue to generally show good agreement in the eastward translation of the upper ridge currently over the Southwest towards the East Coast through the middle of next week. This will not only result in increasing southwesterly flow over the central CONUS, but will also promote lee troughing/cyclogenesis with an attendant uptick in moisture return into the Plains/MS Valley.
Recent GEFS forecasts show high confidence in a return of slightly above seasonal moisture into the eastern Plains and Midwest by the D5/Monday to D6/Tuesday time frame. Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to generally increase during this period as weak impulses embedded within the broader southwest flow regime overspread the returning moisture. Based on more bullish deterministic solutions, some severe risk may materialize across the Midwest late D5/Monday into D6/Tuesday within a warm frontal zone, and potentially across the central Plains on D7/Wednesday or D8/Thursday as a cold front pushes southeast in tandem with the intensification of a surface low.
While these signals are noted, run-to-run variability among deterministic guidance remains fairly high regarding the evolution/placement of surface features and convective environments beyond D6/Tuesday. Latest GEFS and ECENS guidance, as well as long-range ensemble clustering and extended calibrated guidance, show a substantial increase in variance by mid-week, which implies limited confidence in any particular solution. While not surprising at this range and with an upper-level regime shift yet to occur, it remains unclear when predictability of any mid-week severe threat will substantially improve.
..Moore.. 03/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, March 31
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, March 29 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, March 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, March 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, April 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, April 2 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260848 SPC AC 260848
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026
Valid 291200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe weather potential will remain low through the end of the upcoming weekend, and while a gradual increase in severe weather potential is anticipated through next week, predictability remains limited. Extended-range deterministic and ensemble solutions continue to generally show good agreement in the eastward translation of the upper ridge currently over the Southwest towards the East Coast through the middle of next week. This will not only result in increasing southwesterly flow over the central CONUS, but will also promote lee troughing/cyclogenesis with an attendant uptick in moisture return into the Plains/MS Valley.
Recent GEFS forecasts show high confidence in a return of slightly above seasonal moisture into the eastern Plains and Midwest by the D5/Monday to D6/Tuesday time frame. Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to generally increase during this period as weak impulses embedded within the broader southwest flow regime overspread the returning moisture. Based on more bullish deterministic solutions, some severe risk may materialize across the Midwest late D5/Monday into D6/Tuesday within a warm frontal zone, and potentially across the central Plains on D7/Wednesday or D8/Thursday as a cold front pushes southeast in tandem with the intensification of a surface low.
While these signals are noted, run-to-run variability among deterministic guidance remains fairly high regarding the evolution/placement of surface features and convective environments beyond D6/Tuesday. Latest GEFS and ECENS guidance, as well as long-range ensemble clustering and extended calibrated guidance, show a substantial increase in variance by mid-week, which implies limited confidence in any particular solution. While not surprising at this range and with an upper-level regime shift yet to occur, it remains unclear when predictability of any mid-week severe threat will substantially improve.
..Moore.. 03/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, April 1
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, March 29 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, March 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, March 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, April 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, April 2 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260848 SPC AC 260848
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026
Valid 291200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe weather potential will remain low through the end of the upcoming weekend, and while a gradual increase in severe weather potential is anticipated through next week, predictability remains limited. Extended-range deterministic and ensemble solutions continue to generally show good agreement in the eastward translation of the upper ridge currently over the Southwest towards the East Coast through the middle of next week. This will not only result in increasing southwesterly flow over the central CONUS, but will also promote lee troughing/cyclogenesis with an attendant uptick in moisture return into the Plains/MS Valley.
Recent GEFS forecasts show high confidence in a return of slightly above seasonal moisture into the eastern Plains and Midwest by the D5/Monday to D6/Tuesday time frame. Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to generally increase during this period as weak impulses embedded within the broader southwest flow regime overspread the returning moisture. Based on more bullish deterministic solutions, some severe risk may materialize across the Midwest late D5/Monday into D6/Tuesday within a warm frontal zone, and potentially across the central Plains on D7/Wednesday or D8/Thursday as a cold front pushes southeast in tandem with the intensification of a surface low.
While these signals are noted, run-to-run variability among deterministic guidance remains fairly high regarding the evolution/placement of surface features and convective environments beyond D6/Tuesday. Latest GEFS and ECENS guidance, as well as long-range ensemble clustering and extended calibrated guidance, show a substantial increase in variance by mid-week, which implies limited confidence in any particular solution. While not surprising at this range and with an upper-level regime shift yet to occur, it remains unclear when predictability of any mid-week severe threat will substantially improve.
..Moore.. 03/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, April 2
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, March 29 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, March 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, March 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, April 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, April 2 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260848 SPC AC 260848
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026
Valid 291200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe weather potential will remain low through the end of the upcoming weekend, and while a gradual increase in severe weather potential is anticipated through next week, predictability remains limited. Extended-range deterministic and ensemble solutions continue to generally show good agreement in the eastward translation of the upper ridge currently over the Southwest towards the East Coast through the middle of next week. This will not only result in increasing southwesterly flow over the central CONUS, but will also promote lee troughing/cyclogenesis with an attendant uptick in moisture return into the Plains/MS Valley.
Recent GEFS forecasts show high confidence in a return of slightly above seasonal moisture into the eastern Plains and Midwest by the D5/Monday to D6/Tuesday time frame. Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to generally increase during this period as weak impulses embedded within the broader southwest flow regime overspread the returning moisture. Based on more bullish deterministic solutions, some severe risk may materialize across the Midwest late D5/Monday into D6/Tuesday within a warm frontal zone, and potentially across the central Plains on D7/Wednesday or D8/Thursday as a cold front pushes southeast in tandem with the intensification of a surface low.
While these signals are noted, run-to-run variability among deterministic guidance remains fairly high regarding the evolution/placement of surface features and convective environments beyond D6/Tuesday. Latest GEFS and ECENS guidance, as well as long-range ensemble clustering and extended calibrated guidance, show a substantial increase in variance by mid-week, which implies limited confidence in any particular solution. While not surprising at this range and with an upper-level regime shift yet to occur, it remains unclear when predictability of any mid-week severe threat will substantially improve.
..Moore.. 03/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, March 26
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 30%
- WIND: 30%
- Friday, March 27
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Saturday, March 28
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Sunday, March 29
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, March 30
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, March 31
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, April 1
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, April 2
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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