Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, February 8
Outlook Summary
A few thunderstorms are possible along a portion of the coastal Pacific Northwest tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 081619
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026
Valid 081630Z - 091200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
A few thunderstorms are possible along a portion of the coastal Pacific Northwest tonight.
Synopsis
Recent satellite imagery reveals a pair of shortwave troughs moving across the central CONUS amid modest upper troughing anchored by an upper low just off the central Baja California coast. Southwesterly flow extends from the eastern periphery of the upper low through OK, which is just downstream of the southernmost shortwave trough. Some showers are currently ongoing within this region, and the general expectation is for them to continue throughout the period while gradually shifting eastward with time. Forecast soundings in the Arklatex vicinity shows scant buoyancy from 600 to 500 mb, which could result in a few deeper convective elements. However, this buoyancy is expected to be too shallow and weak for lightning production.
Farther west, strong westerly/southwesterly flow aloft extends through the Pacific Northwest, preceding ahead of shortwave trough currently progressing through the northwest Pacific Ocean. This shortwave is forecast to continue eastward, moving through the Pacific Northwest this evening and overnight. Some modest buoyancy may develop along the coast as cold mid-level temperatures associated with this system spread eastward, supporting a line of deeper convection along the axis of the upper trough. Occasional lightning flashes are possible along the coast within the deepest cores.
..Mosier/Halbert.. 02/08/2026
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Monday, February 9
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 081728
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.
Discussion
Cool air aloft will remain across the Pacific Northwest, but shortwave ridging aloft should limit overall thunderstorm potential. An upper-level low across northern Mexico will drift slowly east beneath a developing zonal pattern across the CONUS. Temperatures aloft will start to warm across southern Arizona and New Mexico. Therefore, expect the majority of the thunderstorm activity with this upper low to remain south of the border, across northern Mexico.
Gulf moisture will start to expand northward across Texas on Monday as southerly flow returns across the southern Plains. Moisture will remain shallow and keep instability limited.
Therefore, no thunderstorm activity is expected across the CONUS on Monday.
..Bentley.. 02/08/2026
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Tuesday, February 10
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 081842
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 PM CST Sun Feb 08 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.
Discussion
The mid-level pattern across the CONUS will feature 3 mid-level troughs on Wednesday, one over the Great Lakes, another near far West Texas and another approaching the California coast. Within this pattern, a broad region of southerly flow across the southern CONUS will lead to surface warming/moistening.
Cooling temperatures aloft combined with low-level moistening will lead to weak instability across parts of West Texas on Tuesday. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible as the mid-level trough accelerates and moves northeast.
On the northern periphery of low-level moisture return, likely somewhere near Tennessee on Tuesday evening, a warm front will become better defined. Along and north of this front, some elevated convection may develop within a region of weak isentropic ascent. Forecast soundings suggest limited lighting potential at this time.
Cooling temperatures aloft and northward transport of central Pacific surface moisture may lead to some weak instability along the central California coast Tuesday afternoon and into Tuesday night. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible, particularly as the primary trough and cool air aloft moves overhead around 00Z Wednesday.
..Bentley.. 02/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Wednesday, February 11
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, February 11 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, February 12 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, February 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, February 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, February 15 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080751 SPC AC 080751
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
Some thunderstorm potential is possible on Day 4/Wed across parts of the Gulf Coast states as a weakening upper shortwave trough moves across the Gulf and FL. A cold front will develop southward across the region, and warm advection atop the front, combined with cooling aloft may support isolated thunderstorms. However, instability is expected to remain weak and severe storms are not expected.
Spread among forecast guidance increases heading into the weekend. However, the general pattern suggests upper ridging will move across the Plains and Southeast through Day 6/Fri. Meanwhile, another upper trough will develop over the western U.S., and approach the southern Plains by late Friday. As surface low pressure develops over the southern Plains ahead of the upper trough, southerly low-level flow over the western Gulf will support modest northward transport of at least shallow Gulf moisture into TX and the Gulf Coast states. As the upper trough shifts east across the southern Plains and into the Southeast around Day 7/Sat, some potential for increasing thunderstorm activity is expected. Given a couple days of increasing boundary layer moisture, some low severe risk could accompany the upper trough passage. However, large spread in the timing of this system, and uncertainty regarding quality of moisture return and ensuing destabilization preclude a 15 percent severe delineation.
..Leitman.. 02/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, February 12
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, February 11 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, February 12 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, February 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, February 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, February 15 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080751 SPC AC 080751
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
Some thunderstorm potential is possible on Day 4/Wed across parts of the Gulf Coast states as a weakening upper shortwave trough moves across the Gulf and FL. A cold front will develop southward across the region, and warm advection atop the front, combined with cooling aloft may support isolated thunderstorms. However, instability is expected to remain weak and severe storms are not expected.
Spread among forecast guidance increases heading into the weekend. However, the general pattern suggests upper ridging will move across the Plains and Southeast through Day 6/Fri. Meanwhile, another upper trough will develop over the western U.S., and approach the southern Plains by late Friday. As surface low pressure develops over the southern Plains ahead of the upper trough, southerly low-level flow over the western Gulf will support modest northward transport of at least shallow Gulf moisture into TX and the Gulf Coast states. As the upper trough shifts east across the southern Plains and into the Southeast around Day 7/Sat, some potential for increasing thunderstorm activity is expected. Given a couple days of increasing boundary layer moisture, some low severe risk could accompany the upper trough passage. However, large spread in the timing of this system, and uncertainty regarding quality of moisture return and ensuing destabilization preclude a 15 percent severe delineation.
..Leitman.. 02/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, February 13
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, February 11 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, February 12 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, February 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, February 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, February 15 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080751 SPC AC 080751
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
Some thunderstorm potential is possible on Day 4/Wed across parts of the Gulf Coast states as a weakening upper shortwave trough moves across the Gulf and FL. A cold front will develop southward across the region, and warm advection atop the front, combined with cooling aloft may support isolated thunderstorms. However, instability is expected to remain weak and severe storms are not expected.
Spread among forecast guidance increases heading into the weekend. However, the general pattern suggests upper ridging will move across the Plains and Southeast through Day 6/Fri. Meanwhile, another upper trough will develop over the western U.S., and approach the southern Plains by late Friday. As surface low pressure develops over the southern Plains ahead of the upper trough, southerly low-level flow over the western Gulf will support modest northward transport of at least shallow Gulf moisture into TX and the Gulf Coast states. As the upper trough shifts east across the southern Plains and into the Southeast around Day 7/Sat, some potential for increasing thunderstorm activity is expected. Given a couple days of increasing boundary layer moisture, some low severe risk could accompany the upper trough passage. However, large spread in the timing of this system, and uncertainty regarding quality of moisture return and ensuing destabilization preclude a 15 percent severe delineation.
..Leitman.. 02/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, February 14
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, February 11 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, February 12 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, February 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, February 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, February 15 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080751 SPC AC 080751
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
Some thunderstorm potential is possible on Day 4/Wed across parts of the Gulf Coast states as a weakening upper shortwave trough moves across the Gulf and FL. A cold front will develop southward across the region, and warm advection atop the front, combined with cooling aloft may support isolated thunderstorms. However, instability is expected to remain weak and severe storms are not expected.
Spread among forecast guidance increases heading into the weekend. However, the general pattern suggests upper ridging will move across the Plains and Southeast through Day 6/Fri. Meanwhile, another upper trough will develop over the western U.S., and approach the southern Plains by late Friday. As surface low pressure develops over the southern Plains ahead of the upper trough, southerly low-level flow over the western Gulf will support modest northward transport of at least shallow Gulf moisture into TX and the Gulf Coast states. As the upper trough shifts east across the southern Plains and into the Southeast around Day 7/Sat, some potential for increasing thunderstorm activity is expected. Given a couple days of increasing boundary layer moisture, some low severe risk could accompany the upper trough passage. However, large spread in the timing of this system, and uncertainty regarding quality of moisture return and ensuing destabilization preclude a 15 percent severe delineation.
..Leitman.. 02/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, February 15
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, February 11 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, February 12 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, February 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, February 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, February 15 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080751 SPC AC 080751
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
Some thunderstorm potential is possible on Day 4/Wed across parts of the Gulf Coast states as a weakening upper shortwave trough moves across the Gulf and FL. A cold front will develop southward across the region, and warm advection atop the front, combined with cooling aloft may support isolated thunderstorms. However, instability is expected to remain weak and severe storms are not expected.
Spread among forecast guidance increases heading into the weekend. However, the general pattern suggests upper ridging will move across the Plains and Southeast through Day 6/Fri. Meanwhile, another upper trough will develop over the western U.S., and approach the southern Plains by late Friday. As surface low pressure develops over the southern Plains ahead of the upper trough, southerly low-level flow over the western Gulf will support modest northward transport of at least shallow Gulf moisture into TX and the Gulf Coast states. As the upper trough shifts east across the southern Plains and into the Southeast around Day 7/Sat, some potential for increasing thunderstorm activity is expected. Given a couple days of increasing boundary layer moisture, some low severe risk could accompany the upper trough passage. However, large spread in the timing of this system, and uncertainty regarding quality of moisture return and ensuing destabilization preclude a 15 percent severe delineation.
..Leitman.. 02/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, February 8
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Monday, February 9
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, February 10
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Wednesday, February 11
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, February 12
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, February 13
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, February 14
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, February 15
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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