Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Wednesday, August 26

Outlook Summary

Isolated to widely scattered severe storms are expected across parts of the central and southern High Plains, Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley, and parts of the Ozarks to Lower Mississippi Valley. Damaging/severe gusts are the main threat across these regions, though large hail is also possible, particularly across the High Plains.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 260534

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS…OZARKS/MID-SOUTH…AND MIDWEST

### SUMMARY

Isolated to widely scattered severe storms are expected across parts of the central and southern High Plains, Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley, and parts of the Ozarks to Lower Mississippi Valley. Damaging/severe gusts are the main threat across these regions, though large hail is also possible, particularly across the High Plains.

Lower MI into parts of northwest OH…IN/IL…Eastern MO

A mid/upper trough will move from the Upper Great Lakes/Midwest toward the Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley through the period. A surface low will move across Ontario, as a trailing cold front moves across parts of the Great Lakes and Ohio/mid MS Valleys. Moderate to locally strong destabilization is generally expected along/ahead of the front from parts of MO/IL/IN into lower MI, though early-day convection and cloudiness could limit heating/destabilization with northward extent. Scattered storm development is expected along the front during the afternoon, which will spread east-southeastward into the early evening.

Effective shear of generally 30-40 kt will support some storm organization, with a few supercells and/or organized line segments possible. Damaging winds and large hail could accompany the strongest storms. If any supercells can be sustained, then some tornado potential cannot be ruled out, especially from northern IN into parts of lower MI, where some enhancement to low-level shear/SRH is currently forecast.

Parts of the Ozarks into the Lower MS Valley

Guidance varies regarding potential for morning convection across southeast MO. If substantial early-day convection does develop, then a loosely organized cluster could evolve and move southeastward into parts of western TN and northern MS/AL, with wind-damage potential. Otherwise, scattered storm development is expected from southern MO into AR and eastern OK by late afternoon, potentially aided by an MCV that may emerge from parts of the southern Plains. Deep-layer shear will be marginally supportive of storm organization, and relatively large PW and buoyancy will support potential for downbursts and loosely organized clusters with a wind-damage threat. Isolated hail also cannot be ruled out with the strongest updrafts. Some guidance depicts maintenance of a southward-moving storm cluster into late tonight, resulting in some wind-damage potential spreading into parts of southern LA/MS before the end of the period.

Central/southern High Plains

Across the central High Plains, relatively moist low-level easterly flow and diurnal heating will result in moderate destabilization this afternoon. Scattered storm development is expected by late afternoon, with sufficient effective shear within the northwesterly flow regime for organized multicells and possibly a few supercells. Large hail (potentially approaching 2 inches in diameter) and localized severe gusts will be the primary threats. Some clustering/upscale growth is possible during the evening, which could result in maintenance of a severe-wind threat into parts of western KS.

For the southern High Plains, deep-layer shear will generally be weaker compared to areas farther north, with relatively disorganized convection expected. However, storm development within a very warm and well-mixed environment will support potential for at least localized severe gusts as convection spreads from eastern NM into the TX/OK Panhandles. Depending on trends regarding storm coverage and clustering within this regime, greater wind probabilities may eventually be needed.

..Dean/Weinman.. 08/26/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Thursday, August 27

Outlook Summary

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Northeast on Thursday. Damaging wind, hail and a tornado or two may accompany these storms.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 260557

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST

### SUMMARY

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Northeast on Thursday. Damaging wind, hail and a tornado or two may accompany these storms.

Mid Atlantic to the Northeast

An embedded mid-level trough will rotate around a broader trough across the Great Lakes. This embedded shortwave trough will advance from near Lake Erie to the VT/NH region during the day Thursday. A surface cold front will move from northern Ontario into Quebec with a trailing cold front extending southward into the Great Lakes. Moderate to potentially strong instability is forecast ahead of this front as mid to upper 60s dewpoints advect northward. Mid-level flow is not exceptionally strong, however, some stronger flow is evident above 7km on forecast soundings. This wind profile will support a predominantly multicellular storm mode. However, a few supercells may also be possible. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat, but a tornado or two may also occur farther north across eastern New York and vicinity where forecast soundings exhibit some modest low-level veering.

Central High Plains

An amplified mid-level ridge will shift east toward the Plains on Thursday. Low-level southerly flow will advect low 60s dewpoints northward into western Nebraska and far southwest South Dakota. This should result in moderate instability across the region. Forecast soundings show a favorable environment for supercells with 40+ knots of effective shear and 1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, rising heights associated with the eastward shifting ridge may keep convection mostly suppressed. Nonetheless, isolated storms are possible within this favorable environment which would support a conditional 2+ inch hail and 75+ mph wind gust threat.

..Bentley.. 08/26/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Friday, August 28

Outlook Summary

Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across northern Georgia into the Carolinas and the northern Plains.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 260720

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

### SUMMARY

Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across northern Georgia into the Carolinas and the northern Plains.

Central Plains

The upper-level ridge across the Plains will start to deamplify on Friday. Simultaneously, a lee trough will develop across the northern Plains and into the central High Plains. Strengthening low-level flow will lead to a moistening/destabilizing airmass east of the lee trough. In addition, the low-level jet will strengthen to near 40 knots across the Plains. Increasing isentropic ascent associated with this strengthening low-level jet will be the primary forcing mechanism for storms across the region. 00Z guidance focuses this low-level jet east of the primary instability which creates considerable uncertainty for storm coverage and intensity. Given the environment for severe weather across the region, have highlighted the most favorable area with a 5% severe weather probability.

North Georgia into the Carolinas

A very moist airmass will be present across the Carolinas on Friday with dewpoints in the 70s. Around 20 to 25 knots of mid-level flow may result in occasional storm organization, but weak lapse rates may limit storm intensity. Nonetheless, numerous storms in a very moist, moderate to strongly unstable environment will support some damaging wind potential. Therefore, a Marginal Risk has been added for this threat.

..Bentley.. 08/26/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Saturday, August 29

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260842 SPC AC 260842

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Saturday - Northern Plains to Upper Midwest

A mid-level ridge will move slowly east across the Plains with slight suppression through the day. A lee trough will consolidate into a surface low across the northern Plains through the day Saturday. Ahead of this surface low, strong instability is forecast across South Dakota and vicinity. Despite the favorable environment across this region, primary forcing will be focused on the nose of the low-level jet across Iowa and into Wisconsin, well east of the greatest instability and near the Canadian border. Therefore, limited storm coverage precludes severe weather probabilities at this time, but given the favorable environment, it will need to be monitored closely.

D5/Sunday - North Dakota and Vicinity

A mid-level shortwave trough will move from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Plains Saturday/D4 and Sunday/D5. 00Z guidance has come into fairly consistent agreement with the location and amplitude of this trough across eastern Montana at 00Z Sunday evening. However, there is considerable disagreement with the degree of destabilization across North Dakota, where forcing will be greatest. The GFS dry bias across most of the Plains has severely lessened the instability. However, despite this challenge, it is apparent that most of the instability significantly southeast of the upper-level forcing. The GFS-Para seems to have a more realistic handle on low-level moisture/instability magnitude but it also shows a significant disconnect between where this instability is located and the deeper forcing.

The deterministic ECMWF forecast shows a potentially significant severe weather event across North Dakota with strong instability and shear ahead of a robust convective QPF signal. This is supported by the AI-ECMWF which shows a similar evolution. However, the EC-ensemble mean of instability shows at least some trend toward the GEFS with primary instability southeast of the best forcing.

It is also worth noting that the wave is forecast to eject across North Dakota relatively late (~06Z) which may be a somewhat limiting factor to a greater threat. This potential timing disconnect, combined with some hint of limited overlap between the greatest instability and the primary upper forcing, cast enough uncertainty to preclude severe weather probabilities at this time. However, it is worth noting that if a solution similar to the ECMWF materializes, a significant severe weather event is possible.

D6 and Beyond

By early next week, the primary mid-level ridge appears to center around the southern Appalachians with broad southwesterly flow from the Southwest to the Great Lakes. Within this area of southwesterly flow, multiple embedded mid-level shortwave troughs are forecast. Predictability of these smaller scale features is relatively low at this range, but some continued severe weather threat will likely persist around the periphery of the ridge from the Plains to the Great Lakes and potentially into the Northeast.

..Bentley.. 08/26/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, August 30

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260842 SPC AC 260842

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Saturday - Northern Plains to Upper Midwest

A mid-level ridge will move slowly east across the Plains with slight suppression through the day. A lee trough will consolidate into a surface low across the northern Plains through the day Saturday. Ahead of this surface low, strong instability is forecast across South Dakota and vicinity. Despite the favorable environment across this region, primary forcing will be focused on the nose of the low-level jet across Iowa and into Wisconsin, well east of the greatest instability and near the Canadian border. Therefore, limited storm coverage precludes severe weather probabilities at this time, but given the favorable environment, it will need to be monitored closely.

D5/Sunday - North Dakota and Vicinity

A mid-level shortwave trough will move from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Plains Saturday/D4 and Sunday/D5. 00Z guidance has come into fairly consistent agreement with the location and amplitude of this trough across eastern Montana at 00Z Sunday evening. However, there is considerable disagreement with the degree of destabilization across North Dakota, where forcing will be greatest. The GFS dry bias across most of the Plains has severely lessened the instability. However, despite this challenge, it is apparent that most of the instability significantly southeast of the upper-level forcing. The GFS-Para seems to have a more realistic handle on low-level moisture/instability magnitude but it also shows a significant disconnect between where this instability is located and the deeper forcing.

The deterministic ECMWF forecast shows a potentially significant severe weather event across North Dakota with strong instability and shear ahead of a robust convective QPF signal. This is supported by the AI-ECMWF which shows a similar evolution. However, the EC-ensemble mean of instability shows at least some trend toward the GEFS with primary instability southeast of the best forcing.

It is also worth noting that the wave is forecast to eject across North Dakota relatively late (~06Z) which may be a somewhat limiting factor to a greater threat. This potential timing disconnect, combined with some hint of limited overlap between the greatest instability and the primary upper forcing, cast enough uncertainty to preclude severe weather probabilities at this time. However, it is worth noting that if a solution similar to the ECMWF materializes, a significant severe weather event is possible.

D6 and Beyond

By early next week, the primary mid-level ridge appears to center around the southern Appalachians with broad southwesterly flow from the Southwest to the Great Lakes. Within this area of southwesterly flow, multiple embedded mid-level shortwave troughs are forecast. Predictability of these smaller scale features is relatively low at this range, but some continued severe weather threat will likely persist around the periphery of the ridge from the Plains to the Great Lakes and potentially into the Northeast.

..Bentley.. 08/26/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, August 31

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260842 SPC AC 260842

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Saturday - Northern Plains to Upper Midwest

A mid-level ridge will move slowly east across the Plains with slight suppression through the day. A lee trough will consolidate into a surface low across the northern Plains through the day Saturday. Ahead of this surface low, strong instability is forecast across South Dakota and vicinity. Despite the favorable environment across this region, primary forcing will be focused on the nose of the low-level jet across Iowa and into Wisconsin, well east of the greatest instability and near the Canadian border. Therefore, limited storm coverage precludes severe weather probabilities at this time, but given the favorable environment, it will need to be monitored closely.

D5/Sunday - North Dakota and Vicinity

A mid-level shortwave trough will move from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Plains Saturday/D4 and Sunday/D5. 00Z guidance has come into fairly consistent agreement with the location and amplitude of this trough across eastern Montana at 00Z Sunday evening. However, there is considerable disagreement with the degree of destabilization across North Dakota, where forcing will be greatest. The GFS dry bias across most of the Plains has severely lessened the instability. However, despite this challenge, it is apparent that most of the instability significantly southeast of the upper-level forcing. The GFS-Para seems to have a more realistic handle on low-level moisture/instability magnitude but it also shows a significant disconnect between where this instability is located and the deeper forcing.

The deterministic ECMWF forecast shows a potentially significant severe weather event across North Dakota with strong instability and shear ahead of a robust convective QPF signal. This is supported by the AI-ECMWF which shows a similar evolution. However, the EC-ensemble mean of instability shows at least some trend toward the GEFS with primary instability southeast of the best forcing.

It is also worth noting that the wave is forecast to eject across North Dakota relatively late (~06Z) which may be a somewhat limiting factor to a greater threat. This potential timing disconnect, combined with some hint of limited overlap between the greatest instability and the primary upper forcing, cast enough uncertainty to preclude severe weather probabilities at this time. However, it is worth noting that if a solution similar to the ECMWF materializes, a significant severe weather event is possible.

D6 and Beyond

By early next week, the primary mid-level ridge appears to center around the southern Appalachians with broad southwesterly flow from the Southwest to the Great Lakes. Within this area of southwesterly flow, multiple embedded mid-level shortwave troughs are forecast. Predictability of these smaller scale features is relatively low at this range, but some continued severe weather threat will likely persist around the periphery of the ridge from the Plains to the Great Lakes and potentially into the Northeast.

..Bentley.. 08/26/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, September 1

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260842 SPC AC 260842

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Saturday - Northern Plains to Upper Midwest

A mid-level ridge will move slowly east across the Plains with slight suppression through the day. A lee trough will consolidate into a surface low across the northern Plains through the day Saturday. Ahead of this surface low, strong instability is forecast across South Dakota and vicinity. Despite the favorable environment across this region, primary forcing will be focused on the nose of the low-level jet across Iowa and into Wisconsin, well east of the greatest instability and near the Canadian border. Therefore, limited storm coverage precludes severe weather probabilities at this time, but given the favorable environment, it will need to be monitored closely.

D5/Sunday - North Dakota and Vicinity

A mid-level shortwave trough will move from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Plains Saturday/D4 and Sunday/D5. 00Z guidance has come into fairly consistent agreement with the location and amplitude of this trough across eastern Montana at 00Z Sunday evening. However, there is considerable disagreement with the degree of destabilization across North Dakota, where forcing will be greatest. The GFS dry bias across most of the Plains has severely lessened the instability. However, despite this challenge, it is apparent that most of the instability significantly southeast of the upper-level forcing. The GFS-Para seems to have a more realistic handle on low-level moisture/instability magnitude but it also shows a significant disconnect between where this instability is located and the deeper forcing.

The deterministic ECMWF forecast shows a potentially significant severe weather event across North Dakota with strong instability and shear ahead of a robust convective QPF signal. This is supported by the AI-ECMWF which shows a similar evolution. However, the EC-ensemble mean of instability shows at least some trend toward the GEFS with primary instability southeast of the best forcing.

It is also worth noting that the wave is forecast to eject across North Dakota relatively late (~06Z) which may be a somewhat limiting factor to a greater threat. This potential timing disconnect, combined with some hint of limited overlap between the greatest instability and the primary upper forcing, cast enough uncertainty to preclude severe weather probabilities at this time. However, it is worth noting that if a solution similar to the ECMWF materializes, a significant severe weather event is possible.

D6 and Beyond

By early next week, the primary mid-level ridge appears to center around the southern Appalachians with broad southwesterly flow from the Southwest to the Great Lakes. Within this area of southwesterly flow, multiple embedded mid-level shortwave troughs are forecast. Predictability of these smaller scale features is relatively low at this range, but some continued severe weather threat will likely persist around the periphery of the ridge from the Plains to the Great Lakes and potentially into the Northeast.

..Bentley.. 08/26/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

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Outlook for Wednesday, September 2

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260842 SPC AC 260842

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Saturday - Northern Plains to Upper Midwest

A mid-level ridge will move slowly east across the Plains with slight suppression through the day. A lee trough will consolidate into a surface low across the northern Plains through the day Saturday. Ahead of this surface low, strong instability is forecast across South Dakota and vicinity. Despite the favorable environment across this region, primary forcing will be focused on the nose of the low-level jet across Iowa and into Wisconsin, well east of the greatest instability and near the Canadian border. Therefore, limited storm coverage precludes severe weather probabilities at this time, but given the favorable environment, it will need to be monitored closely.

D5/Sunday - North Dakota and Vicinity

A mid-level shortwave trough will move from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Plains Saturday/D4 and Sunday/D5. 00Z guidance has come into fairly consistent agreement with the location and amplitude of this trough across eastern Montana at 00Z Sunday evening. However, there is considerable disagreement with the degree of destabilization across North Dakota, where forcing will be greatest. The GFS dry bias across most of the Plains has severely lessened the instability. However, despite this challenge, it is apparent that most of the instability significantly southeast of the upper-level forcing. The GFS-Para seems to have a more realistic handle on low-level moisture/instability magnitude but it also shows a significant disconnect between where this instability is located and the deeper forcing.

The deterministic ECMWF forecast shows a potentially significant severe weather event across North Dakota with strong instability and shear ahead of a robust convective QPF signal. This is supported by the AI-ECMWF which shows a similar evolution. However, the EC-ensemble mean of instability shows at least some trend toward the GEFS with primary instability southeast of the best forcing.

It is also worth noting that the wave is forecast to eject across North Dakota relatively late (~06Z) which may be a somewhat limiting factor to a greater threat. This potential timing disconnect, combined with some hint of limited overlap between the greatest instability and the primary upper forcing, cast enough uncertainty to preclude severe weather probabilities at this time. However, it is worth noting that if a solution similar to the ECMWF materializes, a significant severe weather event is possible.

D6 and Beyond

By early next week, the primary mid-level ridge appears to center around the southern Appalachians with broad southwesterly flow from the Southwest to the Great Lakes. Within this area of southwesterly flow, multiple embedded mid-level shortwave troughs are forecast. Predictability of these smaller scale features is relatively low at this range, but some continued severe weather threat will likely persist around the periphery of the ridge from the Plains to the Great Lakes and potentially into the Northeast.

..Bentley.. 08/26/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

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National Risk Overview

Wednesday, August 26

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Thursday, August 27

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 15%

Friday, August 28

ANY SEVERE: 5%

Saturday, August 29

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Sunday, August 30

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Monday, August 31

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Tuesday, September 1

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Wednesday, September 2

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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