Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, July 9
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern Plains. Severe wind gusts may also occur in parts of the Ozarks, mid Mississippi Valley, lower Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and Arizona.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 091616
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026
Valid 091630Z - 101200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS…FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY…AND PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHEAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern Plains. Severe wind gusts may also occur in parts of the Ozarks, mid Mississippi Valley, lower Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and Arizona.
Mid Atlantic
Hot and humid condition are present once again today over parts of the Mid Atlantic region, with dewpoints in the mid 70s and temperatures rising through the 80s. A weak shortwave trough passing across the central Appalachians will aid in the development of scattered afternoon thunderstorms over eastern WV/western VA southern PA, with storms tracking eastward through early evening. Sufficient westerly flow aloft and moderate CAPE values will result in scattered damaging winds over this area. Cloud cover in southeast PA/NY/DE lends some uncertainty to severe threat that far east, but storms are not expected to arrive in that area for several hours, allowing time for the clouds to erode somewhat.
Central High Plains
Similar to yesterday, scattered high-based thunderstorms will form over the mountains/foothills of CO/WY and spread eastward through the afternoon/evening. Forecast soundings suggest parameters favorable of locally damaging wind gusts with this activity, with an increasing risk as storms build eastward into greater low-level moisture. Several 12z CAMS suggest a linear MCS maintaining strong intensity into the night into western KS, with a continuing risk of damaging winds.
ND/SD
A convectively aided shortwave trough is moving eastward across ND/southern Manitoba. Thunderstorms are expected to intensify by late afternoon ahead of this feature from eastern ND into western SD. Forecast soundings show steep mid-level lapse rates and ample CAPE, along with favorable deep-layer shear for supercells. Large hail and damaging winds will be possible.
MO/IL/KY/IN
The remnants of an overnight MCS over MO will continue tracking eastward today into a very moist and moderately unstable air mass over parts of IL/IN/KY. This feature is weakening with time, but some mesoscale organization persists with a weak MCV noted over east-central MO. This may be sufficient to promote re-development of storms later today. If this occurs, the strongest cells could pose a damaging wind threat.
Low-level warm advection on the western flank of this system will result in the development of thunderstorms over western/central MO by late afternoon or early evening. Forecast soundings in this corridor show CAPE and shear profiles that would be favorable for supercell structures capable of damaging winds and perhaps hail. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.
..Hart/Chalmers.. 07/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Friday, July 10
Outlook Summary
Clusters of thunderstorms, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts and some hail, may evolve in a corridor across parts of the south central Great Plains into the Tennessee Valley Friday afternoon and evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 090456
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO ADJACENT CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AND OZARK PLATEAU INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Clusters of thunderstorms, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts and some hail, may evolve in a corridor across parts of the south central Great Plains into the Tennessee Valley Friday afternoon and evening.
Discussion
Latest model output indicates little general change from prior runs. To the southeast of a vigorous short wave trough digging offshore of the southern British Columbia coast, it appears that an increasingly prominent mid/upper-level high will begin to form across portions of the Colorado Valley/Plateau through southern Rockies vicinity late Friday through Friday night. Ridging to the north of the high is also forecast to continue building along an axis across the northern U.S. Great Plains into eastern Canadian Prairies, while downstream positively tilted larger-scale troughing gradually shifts into and across the northern Atlantic Seaboard.
The evolution of remnant weak troughing across the central Great Plains into lower Missouri Valley remains much more unclear, based on continuing varied model solutions However, a belt of westerlies to its south may remain convectively augmented in lower/mid-levels, though perhaps weaker than Thursday.
The potential for at least moderate destabilization remains most certain along the southern periphery of this regime, aided by a corridor of steeper lower through mid-tropospheric lapse rates associated with elevated mixed-layer air (probably based closer to 850 mb than 700 mb), above a seasonably moist boundary-layer. The latitude at which this will become focused remains a bit uncertain, and by late Friday afternoon will largely depend on where outflow from prior convection ends up and the extent to which it modifies. However, corridors of stronger differential heating and developing low-level warm advection might contribute to an environment conducive to the evolution of at least small organizing clusters with potential to produce severe wind and hail across eastern portions of the central Great Plains into the Tennessee Valley through Friday evening.
In the wake of the eastward migrating weak mid-level trough, convection-allowing guidance suggests that easterly low-level flow into portions of the Front Range, Sangre de Cristo Mountains and Raton Mesa/ridge vicinity will be sufficiently moist and unstable, in the presence of steep lapse rates, to support scattered strong thunderstorm development. Some of these may become capable of producing severe hail and wind.
..Kerr.. 07/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Saturday, July 11
Outlook Summary
Strong thunderstorms with potential to produce a few damaging wind gusts are possible in a corridor across the south central Great Plains through Mid South and Tennessee Valley Saturday afternoon and evening.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 090715
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS THROUGH THE MID SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Strong thunderstorms with potential to produce a few damaging wind gusts are possible in a corridor across the south central Great Plains through Mid South and Tennessee Valley Saturday afternoon and evening.
Discussion
Large-scale mid/upper ridging is forecast to continue building across much of interior North America through this period, with the strong core of the ridge expanding northeastward and encompassing much of the Four Corners states through middle Missouri Valley by late Saturday night. While one notable short wave trough is forced inland across the British Columbia coast, increasingly split downstream troughing is forecast to progress toward the northwestern Atlantic, and offshore of the north Atlantic Seaboard. A lingering mid-level shear axis, trailing to the west of the latter troughing, may slowly continue to shift south of the Mid Atlantic and lower Ohio/Missouri Valleys through the period.
In general, the risk for organized severe convection appears low Saturday through Saturday night, or at least dependent on mesoscale perturbations with low predictability at this time frame. However, there does appear a general consensus among model output that lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates may remain steep enough, above a seasonably moist boundary layer, to contribute to moderate CAPE (on the order of 1500-2000+ J/kg) in advance of the southward advancing shear axis. By late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening, this may focus strong thunderstorm development in a corridor from the south central Great Plains into the Tennessee Valley. Some of this activity may evolve into small clusters with potential to produce strong to locally severe surface gusts.
..Kerr.. 07/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Sunday, July 12
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, July 12 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, July 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, July 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, July 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, July 16 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090900 SPC AC 090900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range models continue to indicate that the center of strong mid-level ridging building northeast of the Four Corners states will shift across the middle Missouri Valley early next week, where it may reach peak intensity by about Tuesday, before becoming suppressed. Even as this commences, mid-level ridging in the westerlies may be maintained near and north/northeast of the international border, from the Great Plains through the Great Lakes, while large-scale downstream troughing amplifies southeastward across the Northeast.
Associated with this evolution, a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air still appears likely to advect on the southern fringe of a belt of strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of this ridging. As the nose of the warmer air overspreads the Great Lakes region early next week, forcing for ascent associated with warm advection could begin supporting organizing thunderstorm clusters potentially impacting portions of New England, and/or the lower Great Lakes through Mid Atlantic.
As guidance suggests that the westerlies will initially remain split downstream of the ridge, and a potentially notable short wave trough (and associated cold front) migrating around its periphery and eventually suppressing it, it remains unclear how potential frontal and pre-frontal convection will pan out on any particular day. Due to both synoptic and sub-synoptic predictability issues, severe probabilities remain at less than 15 percent in the day 6-8 time frame. However, this probably will change in later outlooks closer to this time period, when the potential for introducing unduly large forecast false alarm decreases.
..Kerr.. 07/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, July 13
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, July 12 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, July 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, July 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, July 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, July 16 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090900 SPC AC 090900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range models continue to indicate that the center of strong mid-level ridging building northeast of the Four Corners states will shift across the middle Missouri Valley early next week, where it may reach peak intensity by about Tuesday, before becoming suppressed. Even as this commences, mid-level ridging in the westerlies may be maintained near and north/northeast of the international border, from the Great Plains through the Great Lakes, while large-scale downstream troughing amplifies southeastward across the Northeast.
Associated with this evolution, a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air still appears likely to advect on the southern fringe of a belt of strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of this ridging. As the nose of the warmer air overspreads the Great Lakes region early next week, forcing for ascent associated with warm advection could begin supporting organizing thunderstorm clusters potentially impacting portions of New England, and/or the lower Great Lakes through Mid Atlantic.
As guidance suggests that the westerlies will initially remain split downstream of the ridge, and a potentially notable short wave trough (and associated cold front) migrating around its periphery and eventually suppressing it, it remains unclear how potential frontal and pre-frontal convection will pan out on any particular day. Due to both synoptic and sub-synoptic predictability issues, severe probabilities remain at less than 15 percent in the day 6-8 time frame. However, this probably will change in later outlooks closer to this time period, when the potential for introducing unduly large forecast false alarm decreases.
..Kerr.. 07/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, July 14
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, July 12 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, July 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, July 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, July 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, July 16 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090900 SPC AC 090900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range models continue to indicate that the center of strong mid-level ridging building northeast of the Four Corners states will shift across the middle Missouri Valley early next week, where it may reach peak intensity by about Tuesday, before becoming suppressed. Even as this commences, mid-level ridging in the westerlies may be maintained near and north/northeast of the international border, from the Great Plains through the Great Lakes, while large-scale downstream troughing amplifies southeastward across the Northeast.
Associated with this evolution, a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air still appears likely to advect on the southern fringe of a belt of strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of this ridging. As the nose of the warmer air overspreads the Great Lakes region early next week, forcing for ascent associated with warm advection could begin supporting organizing thunderstorm clusters potentially impacting portions of New England, and/or the lower Great Lakes through Mid Atlantic.
As guidance suggests that the westerlies will initially remain split downstream of the ridge, and a potentially notable short wave trough (and associated cold front) migrating around its periphery and eventually suppressing it, it remains unclear how potential frontal and pre-frontal convection will pan out on any particular day. Due to both synoptic and sub-synoptic predictability issues, severe probabilities remain at less than 15 percent in the day 6-8 time frame. However, this probably will change in later outlooks closer to this time period, when the potential for introducing unduly large forecast false alarm decreases.
..Kerr.. 07/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, July 15
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, July 12 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, July 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, July 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, July 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, July 16 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090900 SPC AC 090900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range models continue to indicate that the center of strong mid-level ridging building northeast of the Four Corners states will shift across the middle Missouri Valley early next week, where it may reach peak intensity by about Tuesday, before becoming suppressed. Even as this commences, mid-level ridging in the westerlies may be maintained near and north/northeast of the international border, from the Great Plains through the Great Lakes, while large-scale downstream troughing amplifies southeastward across the Northeast.
Associated with this evolution, a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air still appears likely to advect on the southern fringe of a belt of strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of this ridging. As the nose of the warmer air overspreads the Great Lakes region early next week, forcing for ascent associated with warm advection could begin supporting organizing thunderstorm clusters potentially impacting portions of New England, and/or the lower Great Lakes through Mid Atlantic.
As guidance suggests that the westerlies will initially remain split downstream of the ridge, and a potentially notable short wave trough (and associated cold front) migrating around its periphery and eventually suppressing it, it remains unclear how potential frontal and pre-frontal convection will pan out on any particular day. Due to both synoptic and sub-synoptic predictability issues, severe probabilities remain at less than 15 percent in the day 6-8 time frame. However, this probably will change in later outlooks closer to this time period, when the potential for introducing unduly large forecast false alarm decreases.
..Kerr.. 07/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, July 16
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, July 12 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, July 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, July 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, July 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, July 16 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090900 SPC AC 090900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range models continue to indicate that the center of strong mid-level ridging building northeast of the Four Corners states will shift across the middle Missouri Valley early next week, where it may reach peak intensity by about Tuesday, before becoming suppressed. Even as this commences, mid-level ridging in the westerlies may be maintained near and north/northeast of the international border, from the Great Plains through the Great Lakes, while large-scale downstream troughing amplifies southeastward across the Northeast.
Associated with this evolution, a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air still appears likely to advect on the southern fringe of a belt of strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of this ridging. As the nose of the warmer air overspreads the Great Lakes region early next week, forcing for ascent associated with warm advection could begin supporting organizing thunderstorm clusters potentially impacting portions of New England, and/or the lower Great Lakes through Mid Atlantic.
As guidance suggests that the westerlies will initially remain split downstream of the ridge, and a potentially notable short wave trough (and associated cold front) migrating around its periphery and eventually suppressing it, it remains unclear how potential frontal and pre-frontal convection will pan out on any particular day. Due to both synoptic and sub-synoptic predictability issues, severe probabilities remain at less than 15 percent in the day 6-8 time frame. However, this probably will change in later outlooks closer to this time period, when the potential for introducing unduly large forecast false alarm decreases.
..Kerr.. 07/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, July 9
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Friday, July 10
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Saturday, July 11
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Sunday, July 12
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, July 13
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, July 14
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, July 15
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, July 16
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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