Severe Weather Outlook
Hayley here - Do you want to see severe weather in your calendar?
* it's like an add-on for your digital calendar NOT a paper calendar
National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, August 30
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe storms, accompanied by mainly a severe wind and hail threat, are possible across portions of the northern and central Plains, as well as the eastern Great Basin today and tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 300553
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS…PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe storms, accompanied by mainly a severe wind and hail threat, are possible across portions of the northern and central Plains, as well as the eastern Great Basin today and tonight.
Northern Plains
An upper low over SK is forecast to eject eastward as it is entrained in the stronger westerlies associated with a low-amplitude shortwave trough crossing the northern Rockies. A belt of enhanced mid-level flow will extend westward over the Intermountain West and northern Great Basin, coincident with a plume of mid-level monsoon moisture. A surface low will develop during the afternoon from near the MT/ND border with a trailing cold front forecast to move across the Dakotas overnight. A weaker low/surface trough will develop across the central High Plains as a warm front extends eastward from SD into southern MN, WI and Lower MI.
Morning storms along the warm front from the eastern Dakotas to western MN could persist and pose a risk for isolated hail. The primary low-level jet will remain displaced to the south which should allow these storms to weaken through the remainder of the day.
More robust convection is expected to develop ahead of the cold front from eastern MT/WY into the western and central Dakotas. Weak low-level easterly flow will help transport mid 60s dewpoints westward aiding in moderate destabilization. Flow aloft will increase through the day, though the strongest deep-layer shear should lag behind the front. Nevertheless, a band of storms, likely a mix of line segments and some supercell structures, should develop and intensify along the cold front spreading eastward. Some severe gusts, hail above 1.00" and perhaps a tornado near the warm front are possible. The severe risk may persist through the night as activity pushes across ND/SD and into MN.
..Front Range to the High Plains
As the trough moves overhead through the day, high based convection is forecast to develop and move off the higher terrain of CO/WY, aided by 30-40 kt mid-level westerlies. Steep low-level lapse rates and high cloud bases may support localized damaging wind potential across CO/NE/KS. Some organization into a cluster is possible as the storms move eastward into the Plains through the evening. However, modest buoyancy may inhibit broader intensification/organization.
Great Basin/Western Slope
An unseasonably moist air mass (dewpoints in the 50s to near 60 F) will be in place beneath the stronger mid-level flow from eastern UT into western CO. Showers and storms are likely to be ongoing at the start of the period and should increase in coverage trough the day aided by filtered diurnal heating and the passage of the shortwave trough crossing the Rockies. While destabilization will be contingent on cloud breaks, pockets of moderate buoyancy amid the strong unidirectional westerly flow may support a few organized storm clusters or supercells capable of isolated severe gusts and hail.
AZ/CA
Scattered thunderstorms are again expected to develop within a hot and moderately unstable air mass this afternoon. Stronger mid-level flow should be well to the north supporting little if any storm organization. Still, steep low-level lapse rates could support sporadic downbursts with occasional severe gusts. Severe coverage is expected to remain below 5%.
..Lyons/Wendt.. 08/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Monday, August 31
Outlook Summary
Sparse severe thunderstorms, accompanied by wind and hail, are possible tomorrow (Monday) from the central Plains toward parts of the Midwest.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 300553
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST
### SUMMARY
Sparse severe thunderstorms, accompanied by wind and hail, are possible tomorrow (Monday) from the central Plains toward parts of the Midwest.
Synopsis
An upper ridge will remain in place over the central and eastern CONUS tomorrow (Sunday), with at least one low-amplitude mid-level trough and several other smaller-scale impulses poised to pivot around the upper ridge, overspreading the central High Plains to the Northeast in the process. Given the presence of these impulses atop a moist boundary layer, at least isolated thunderstorms are expected all along the northern periphery of the ridge. While thunderstorms will be more sparse over parts of the central Plains to the Midwest, cooler temperatures and stronger flow aloft overspreading the aforementioned moist boundary layer will foster enough buoyancy and shear to support a conditional severe threat.
Central Plains to the Midwest
A low-amplitude mid-level trough will traverse the Upper MS Valley while a smaller mid-level impulse impinges on the central High Plains after dark. As such, upper support will be limited along an effective warm frontal boundary extending from central NE to far western WI during the day. Along this boundary, surface dewpoints should exceed 70 F as 7.5-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates are advected overhead from the west, yielding 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Furthermore, modest westerly mid-level flow will also contribute to 35-40 kts of effective bulk shear, which is more than adequate for multicells and supercells should a storm develop and mature. Severe wind and hail would be the main threats with such a storm. Despite the favorable kinematic and thermodynamic parameter space, the severe threat remains quite conditional given the lack of upper support, as suggested by CAMS, which show little in the way of storm coverage. Given doubts on more than sparse storm coverage, only Marginal Risk probabilities remain in place.
..Squitieri.. 08/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Tuesday, September 1
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, September 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, September 2 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Thursday, September 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, September 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, September 5 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290855 SPC AC 290855
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium range guidance consensus depicts a persistent ridge fortified across the central CONUS through the Days 4-8 (Tuesday-Saturday) period. Multiple mid-level shortwave troughs and smaller scale impulses will pivot around the broader upper ridge and traverse the Pacific Northwest to northern Plains, Great Lakes, and Northeast through the week. The best chance for rounds of organized strong to severe thunderstorms will be with impulses overspreading a moist boundary layer from the Upper MS Valley to the southern New England/Mid-Atlantic regions. Details regarding the timing and placement of some of these impulses varies among medium-range guidance, rendering predictability too low for several potential severe scenarios.
Days 4-7 (Tuesday-Friday) - Northeast/Mid-Atlantic
The Northeast to Mid-Atlantic will experience the east-northeast periphery of the aforementioned upper ridge, with multiple impulses expected to overspread the region through the middle of the week. At least isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected each day Tuesday-Friday. At the moment, medium range guidance consensus shows the strongest signal in a mid-level impulse impinging on southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic on Day 5/Wednesday, where severe probabilities have been maintained.
Guidance also depicts these same regions to have adequate vertical wind shear and instability Tuesday and Thursday, perhaps even extending into Day 7/Friday. Like Wednesday, several members of medium range ML/AI generated guidance also has severe probabilities over these regions Days 4-7. Unlike Wednesday though, deterministic medium range guidance varies in place and time of the more subtle impulses expected to support severe weather over the Northeast. It is acknowledged that severe probabilities will likely be needed in the future. However, probabilities have been withheld outside of Wednesday out of prudence given the degree of changes in forecast details expected in the coming days.
..Squitieri.. 08/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, September 2
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, September 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, September 2 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Thursday, September 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, September 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, September 5 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290855 SPC AC 290855
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium range guidance consensus depicts a persistent ridge fortified across the central CONUS through the Days 4-8 (Tuesday-Saturday) period. Multiple mid-level shortwave troughs and smaller scale impulses will pivot around the broader upper ridge and traverse the Pacific Northwest to northern Plains, Great Lakes, and Northeast through the week. The best chance for rounds of organized strong to severe thunderstorms will be with impulses overspreading a moist boundary layer from the Upper MS Valley to the southern New England/Mid-Atlantic regions. Details regarding the timing and placement of some of these impulses varies among medium-range guidance, rendering predictability too low for several potential severe scenarios.
Days 4-7 (Tuesday-Friday) - Northeast/Mid-Atlantic
The Northeast to Mid-Atlantic will experience the east-northeast periphery of the aforementioned upper ridge, with multiple impulses expected to overspread the region through the middle of the week. At least isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected each day Tuesday-Friday. At the moment, medium range guidance consensus shows the strongest signal in a mid-level impulse impinging on southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic on Day 5/Wednesday, where severe probabilities have been maintained.
Guidance also depicts these same regions to have adequate vertical wind shear and instability Tuesday and Thursday, perhaps even extending into Day 7/Friday. Like Wednesday, several members of medium range ML/AI generated guidance also has severe probabilities over these regions Days 4-7. Unlike Wednesday though, deterministic medium range guidance varies in place and time of the more subtle impulses expected to support severe weather over the Northeast. It is acknowledged that severe probabilities will likely be needed in the future. However, probabilities have been withheld outside of Wednesday out of prudence given the degree of changes in forecast details expected in the coming days.
..Squitieri.. 08/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, September 3
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, September 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, September 2 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Thursday, September 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, September 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, September 5 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290855 SPC AC 290855
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium range guidance consensus depicts a persistent ridge fortified across the central CONUS through the Days 4-8 (Tuesday-Saturday) period. Multiple mid-level shortwave troughs and smaller scale impulses will pivot around the broader upper ridge and traverse the Pacific Northwest to northern Plains, Great Lakes, and Northeast through the week. The best chance for rounds of organized strong to severe thunderstorms will be with impulses overspreading a moist boundary layer from the Upper MS Valley to the southern New England/Mid-Atlantic regions. Details regarding the timing and placement of some of these impulses varies among medium-range guidance, rendering predictability too low for several potential severe scenarios.
Days 4-7 (Tuesday-Friday) - Northeast/Mid-Atlantic
The Northeast to Mid-Atlantic will experience the east-northeast periphery of the aforementioned upper ridge, with multiple impulses expected to overspread the region through the middle of the week. At least isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected each day Tuesday-Friday. At the moment, medium range guidance consensus shows the strongest signal in a mid-level impulse impinging on southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic on Day 5/Wednesday, where severe probabilities have been maintained.
Guidance also depicts these same regions to have adequate vertical wind shear and instability Tuesday and Thursday, perhaps even extending into Day 7/Friday. Like Wednesday, several members of medium range ML/AI generated guidance also has severe probabilities over these regions Days 4-7. Unlike Wednesday though, deterministic medium range guidance varies in place and time of the more subtle impulses expected to support severe weather over the Northeast. It is acknowledged that severe probabilities will likely be needed in the future. However, probabilities have been withheld outside of Wednesday out of prudence given the degree of changes in forecast details expected in the coming days.
..Squitieri.. 08/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, September 4
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, September 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, September 2 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Thursday, September 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, September 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, September 5 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290855 SPC AC 290855
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium range guidance consensus depicts a persistent ridge fortified across the central CONUS through the Days 4-8 (Tuesday-Saturday) period. Multiple mid-level shortwave troughs and smaller scale impulses will pivot around the broader upper ridge and traverse the Pacific Northwest to northern Plains, Great Lakes, and Northeast through the week. The best chance for rounds of organized strong to severe thunderstorms will be with impulses overspreading a moist boundary layer from the Upper MS Valley to the southern New England/Mid-Atlantic regions. Details regarding the timing and placement of some of these impulses varies among medium-range guidance, rendering predictability too low for several potential severe scenarios.
Days 4-7 (Tuesday-Friday) - Northeast/Mid-Atlantic
The Northeast to Mid-Atlantic will experience the east-northeast periphery of the aforementioned upper ridge, with multiple impulses expected to overspread the region through the middle of the week. At least isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected each day Tuesday-Friday. At the moment, medium range guidance consensus shows the strongest signal in a mid-level impulse impinging on southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic on Day 5/Wednesday, where severe probabilities have been maintained.
Guidance also depicts these same regions to have adequate vertical wind shear and instability Tuesday and Thursday, perhaps even extending into Day 7/Friday. Like Wednesday, several members of medium range ML/AI generated guidance also has severe probabilities over these regions Days 4-7. Unlike Wednesday though, deterministic medium range guidance varies in place and time of the more subtle impulses expected to support severe weather over the Northeast. It is acknowledged that severe probabilities will likely be needed in the future. However, probabilities have been withheld outside of Wednesday out of prudence given the degree of changes in forecast details expected in the coming days.
..Squitieri.. 08/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, September 5
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, September 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, September 2 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Thursday, September 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, September 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, September 5 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290855 SPC AC 290855
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium range guidance consensus depicts a persistent ridge fortified across the central CONUS through the Days 4-8 (Tuesday-Saturday) period. Multiple mid-level shortwave troughs and smaller scale impulses will pivot around the broader upper ridge and traverse the Pacific Northwest to northern Plains, Great Lakes, and Northeast through the week. The best chance for rounds of organized strong to severe thunderstorms will be with impulses overspreading a moist boundary layer from the Upper MS Valley to the southern New England/Mid-Atlantic regions. Details regarding the timing and placement of some of these impulses varies among medium-range guidance, rendering predictability too low for several potential severe scenarios.
Days 4-7 (Tuesday-Friday) - Northeast/Mid-Atlantic
The Northeast to Mid-Atlantic will experience the east-northeast periphery of the aforementioned upper ridge, with multiple impulses expected to overspread the region through the middle of the week. At least isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected each day Tuesday-Friday. At the moment, medium range guidance consensus shows the strongest signal in a mid-level impulse impinging on southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic on Day 5/Wednesday, where severe probabilities have been maintained.
Guidance also depicts these same regions to have adequate vertical wind shear and instability Tuesday and Thursday, perhaps even extending into Day 7/Friday. Like Wednesday, several members of medium range ML/AI generated guidance also has severe probabilities over these regions Days 4-7. Unlike Wednesday though, deterministic medium range guidance varies in place and time of the more subtle impulses expected to support severe weather over the Northeast. It is acknowledged that severe probabilities will likely be needed in the future. However, probabilities have been withheld outside of Wednesday out of prudence given the degree of changes in forecast details expected in the coming days.
..Squitieri.. 08/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, August 30
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Monday, August 31
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Tuesday, September 1
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, September 2
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Thursday, September 3
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, September 4
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, September 5
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Your Severe Outlook
Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.
Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.
Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.
About Severe Weather Outlook . com
SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.
- tornado hq - live severe weather warnings
- cyclocane - hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones
- tornado solitaire - play cards while you monitor the US severe weather threat
- tertremo - live view of earthquakes around the world
- earthquake solitaire - get live earthquake updates as you play your favorite card game