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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Friday, September 25

Outlook Summary

Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

Outlook Images

overview

overview severe weather outlook for Friday, September 25

tornado low

tornado severe weather outlook for Friday, September 25

wind low

wind severe weather outlook for Friday, September 25

hail low

hail severe weather outlook for Friday, September 25

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 251951

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Valid 252000Z - 261200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

20z Update

No changes were made to the existing outlook with this update as the forecast remains largely on track. Isolated thunderstorm development is noted across portions of western Oklahoma as of 1945 UTC, but cloud cover continues to generally temper surface heating ahead of this activity. While a stronger gust or two may still be possible (particularly where any developing convection can interact with pockets of stronger heating/greater low-level lapse rates), the overall severe risk continues to appear limited owing to the marginal thermodynamic/kinematic environment.

While the overall environment is marginally more favorable farther southwest across portions of southeast NM/West TX, relatively poor mid-level lapse rates and the displacement of better synoptic-scale forcing for ascent farther to the northwest suggest that convection will largely be tied to terrain influences. Coupled with a relatively narrow zone of greater buoyancy (as depicted by 19z objective analysis), this suggests that the overall severe risk should remain limited.

See the discussion below for additional details.

..Chalmers/Dean.. 09/25/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026/

Synopsis

An MCS is decaying across the TX Panhandle/South Plains late this morning. Outflow associated with this area of convection is spreading south and east, while areas of rain and cloud cover slowly develop northeastward toward western OK. In the wake of this early day convection, some airmass recovery and modest destabilization is possible across southeast NM into far southwest TX where stronger heating is occurring amid more scattered cloudiness. Likewise, across western OK ahead of the TX Panhandle convection and outflow, more isolated cloud cover is allowing for stronger heating of a moist boundary layer.

Southeast NM/Southwest TX

Midlevel lapse rates are expected to remain modest and MLCAPE will range from 500-1000 J/kg by mid/late afternoon. Isolated convection may develop near higher terrain initially across southeast NM/southwest TX. A storm or two could briefly become strong and produce marginal hail, but the severe risk is expected to be tempered by the marginal thermodynamic/kinematic parameter space in the wake of the early day MCS.

Western OK

While currently mostly sunny across western OK, afternoon heating could become muted by cloud cover as showers associated with the ongoing TX Panhandle activity spread east/northeast the next few hours. This could limit stronger destabilization/steepening of low-level lapse rates within a modestly sheared environment. A strong gust or two could occur if sufficient heating/steepening of low-level lapse rates unfolds. However, given modest vertical shear, weak midlevel lapse rates, and marginal instability, the overall severe risk appears limited.

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

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Outlook for Saturday, September 26

Outlook Summary

Isolated hail and strong outflow winds may accompany thunderstorms across portions of the central and southern Plains Saturday.

Outlook Images

overview

overview severe weather outlook for Saturday, September 26

tornado low

tornado severe weather outlook for Saturday, September 26

wind 5%

wind severe weather outlook for Saturday, September 26

hail 5%

hail severe weather outlook for Saturday, September 26

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 251726

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL KANSAS

### SUMMARY

Isolated hail and strong outflow winds may accompany thunderstorms across portions of the central and southern Plains Saturday.

Synopsis

A persistent moisture plume and associated midlevel trough will be shunted eastward into the southern/central Plains as upstream heights rise over the southern Rockies, east of another weak trough just off the northern CA coast. A deep occluding cyclone will remain just off the northern Mid-Atlantic coast. In a warm advection regime near the southeast New England coast, midlevel buoyancy/depth could be sufficient for a few lightning flashes with elevated convection. A trailing cold front will drift southward into the FL Straits. Some air mass modification is expected along the southeast FL coast, where a confluence zone could support low-topped, warm process convection. However, a pronounced midlevel inversion will likely preclude sufficiently deep convection for charge separation.

Southern/central Plains late Saturday afternoon/evening

Surface-based thunderstorm development will be possible late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening within the lingering moisture plume and along a surface trough from northwest TX into central KS. A deep, surface mixed layer in areas with less cloud debris will favor isolated strong outflow gusts. The larger-scale mass response will remain weak, though vertical shear will be marginally favorable for some storm organization and an associated threat for isolated large hail.

..Thompson.. 09/25/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Sunday, September 27

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

Outlook Images

overview

overview severe weather outlook for Sunday, September 27

any severe low

any severe severe weather outlook for Sunday, September 27

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 251926

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

Synopsis

Changes to the large-scale pattern will be slow Sunday into early Monday with an occluded cyclone expected to remain near the northern Mid-Atlantic coast. A midlevel shortwave trough will progress inland to CA/NV, with downstream ridging from the southern High Plains to the upper MS Valley. A weakening surface front will stall near the I-44 corridor from MO into OK, and a warm advection regime will develop late in the period across the Dakotas.

Isolated lightning flashes still may occur with elevated convection near the southeast New England coast in association with warm advection. A few thunderstorms will be possible through the day Sunday from MO into OK and north TX along the weakening front. Elevated thunderstorms will be possible Sunday night into the Dakotas where sufficient moistening occurs with strengthening warm advection. A few diurnal thunderstorms will be possible from southeast AZ into NM and far west TX within the lingering monsoonal moisture plume. The threat for isolated thunderstorms may persist through late Sunday/early Monday into more of the Rockies as moisture and ascent increase gradually downstream from the CA/NV midlevel trough. Severe thunderstorms are not expected as a result of consistently weak buoyancy and vertical shear in all of the aforementioned areas.

..Thompson.. 09/25/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Monday, September 28

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Monday, September 28

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Monday, September 28 predictability too low
Day 5 Tuesday, September 29 predictability too low
Day 6 Wednesday, September 30 predictability too low
Day 7 Thursday, October 1 potential too low
Day 8 Friday, October 2 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250824 SPC AC 250824

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Valid 281200Z - 031200Z

DISCUSSION

Upper troughing over the Interior West, containing multiple smaller impulses, will gradually progress eastward to the Plains states through the middle of the week (Days 5-7/Tuesday-Thursday) before another mid-level trough approaches the central U.S. by next weekend. Deterministic medium-range guidance consensus depicts the development of a surface low over the southern Plains around Day 6/Wednesday, accompanied by seasonal low-level moisture return. However, guidance also depicts a poor overlap of vertical wind shear with the moist axis, likely inhibiting greater severe potential, in agreement with calibrated ML/AI guidance consensus. As such, no probabilities were introduced this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 09/25/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, September 29

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Tuesday, September 29

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Monday, September 28 predictability too low
Day 5 Tuesday, September 29 predictability too low
Day 6 Wednesday, September 30 predictability too low
Day 7 Thursday, October 1 potential too low
Day 8 Friday, October 2 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250824 SPC AC 250824

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Valid 281200Z - 031200Z

DISCUSSION

Upper troughing over the Interior West, containing multiple smaller impulses, will gradually progress eastward to the Plains states through the middle of the week (Days 5-7/Tuesday-Thursday) before another mid-level trough approaches the central U.S. by next weekend. Deterministic medium-range guidance consensus depicts the development of a surface low over the southern Plains around Day 6/Wednesday, accompanied by seasonal low-level moisture return. However, guidance also depicts a poor overlap of vertical wind shear with the moist axis, likely inhibiting greater severe potential, in agreement with calibrated ML/AI guidance consensus. As such, no probabilities were introduced this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 09/25/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, September 30

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Wednesday, September 30

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Monday, September 28 predictability too low
Day 5 Tuesday, September 29 predictability too low
Day 6 Wednesday, September 30 predictability too low
Day 7 Thursday, October 1 potential too low
Day 8 Friday, October 2 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250824 SPC AC 250824

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Valid 281200Z - 031200Z

DISCUSSION

Upper troughing over the Interior West, containing multiple smaller impulses, will gradually progress eastward to the Plains states through the middle of the week (Days 5-7/Tuesday-Thursday) before another mid-level trough approaches the central U.S. by next weekend. Deterministic medium-range guidance consensus depicts the development of a surface low over the southern Plains around Day 6/Wednesday, accompanied by seasonal low-level moisture return. However, guidance also depicts a poor overlap of vertical wind shear with the moist axis, likely inhibiting greater severe potential, in agreement with calibrated ML/AI guidance consensus. As such, no probabilities were introduced this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 09/25/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Thursday, October 1

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Thursday, October  1

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Monday, September 28 predictability too low
Day 5 Tuesday, September 29 predictability too low
Day 6 Wednesday, September 30 predictability too low
Day 7 Thursday, October 1 potential too low
Day 8 Friday, October 2 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250824 SPC AC 250824

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Valid 281200Z - 031200Z

DISCUSSION

Upper troughing over the Interior West, containing multiple smaller impulses, will gradually progress eastward to the Plains states through the middle of the week (Days 5-7/Tuesday-Thursday) before another mid-level trough approaches the central U.S. by next weekend. Deterministic medium-range guidance consensus depicts the development of a surface low over the southern Plains around Day 6/Wednesday, accompanied by seasonal low-level moisture return. However, guidance also depicts a poor overlap of vertical wind shear with the moist axis, likely inhibiting greater severe potential, in agreement with calibrated ML/AI guidance consensus. As such, no probabilities were introduced this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 09/25/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Friday, October 2

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Friday, October  2

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Monday, September 28 predictability too low
Day 5 Tuesday, September 29 predictability too low
Day 6 Wednesday, September 30 predictability too low
Day 7 Thursday, October 1 potential too low
Day 8 Friday, October 2 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250824 SPC AC 250824

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Valid 281200Z - 031200Z

DISCUSSION

Upper troughing over the Interior West, containing multiple smaller impulses, will gradually progress eastward to the Plains states through the middle of the week (Days 5-7/Tuesday-Thursday) before another mid-level trough approaches the central U.S. by next weekend. Deterministic medium-range guidance consensus depicts the development of a surface low over the southern Plains around Day 6/Wednesday, accompanied by seasonal low-level moisture return. However, guidance also depicts a poor overlap of vertical wind shear with the moist axis, likely inhibiting greater severe potential, in agreement with calibrated ML/AI guidance consensus. As such, no probabilities were introduced this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 09/25/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

National Risk Overview

Friday, September 25
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: low
Saturday, September 26
TORNADO: low
HAIL: 5%
WIND: 5%
Sunday, September 27
ANY SEVERE: low
Monday, September 28
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, September 29
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, September 30
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, October 1
ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, October 2
ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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