Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, February 16
Outlook Summary
Severe storm are not forecast through Tuesday morning. Scattered storms are still expected tonight from southwest Oregon into northern California late tonight, with isolated activity into southern California.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 170039
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026
Valid 170100Z - 171200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe storm are not forecast through Tuesday morning. Scattered storms are still expected tonight from southwest Oregon into northern California late tonight, with isolated activity into southern California.
West Coast
A shortwave trough and cold front will continue moving out of southern CA and into parts of AZ and UT and western CO through the night. Isolated convective showers and a few lightning flashes will remain possible over southern CA through tonight due to cold temperatures aloft and as secondary disturbance rotates through the base of the trough.
To the north, another large upper trough with very cold temperatures aloft will dive southeastward off the WA/OR coasts, with increasing shoreline convergence with an attendant cold front. The 00Z UIL sounding shows the very cold temperatures and steep lapse rates through a deep layer, despite cool surface temperatures, with isolated lightning offshore at this time. Later tonight, showers and a few thunderstorms may impact parts of western OR and northern CA, but severe weather is not expected.
..Jewell.. 02/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Tuesday, February 17
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are possible across Pacific coastal areas and the Central Valley of California Tuesday into Tuesday night, as well as across parts of the mid Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest Tuesday night. However, the risk for severe storms currently appears low.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 161730
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are possible across Pacific coastal areas and the Central Valley of California Tuesday into Tuesday night, as well as across parts of the mid Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest Tuesday night. However, the risk for severe storms currently appears low.
California
In the wake of a mid/upper-level shortwave trough ejecting across the Great Basin/Four Corners region, another strong trough will dig southeastward along the Pacific Coast on Tuesday, as a powerful mid/upper-level jet begins to impinge upon the California coast. Ascent attendant to the trough/jet and cold temperatures aloft will support low-topped convection along much of the California coast, and also within parts of the interior valleys. The strongest low/midlevel flow will move over the central/northern CA coast and valleys during the day and evening, and over the southern CA coastal region later Tuesday night. Gusty winds and small hail will be possible with low-topped convection across these regions. At this time, it appears that convection will be quite shallow, which is expected to limit the organized severe threat. However, trends will continue to be monitored regarding potential for a low-probability wind and brief-tornado threat associated with this strong system.
Missouri Valley/Midwest
The mid/upper-level shortwave trough initially near the eastern Great Basin and Four Corners region will eject rapidly northeastward and take on a negative tilt on Tuesday, reaching the central/northern Plains by late afternoon into the evening, and the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes by early Wednesday morning. In response to this shortwave trough, a deep surface low will consolidate across the northern High Plains, and then move across the Dakotas. A trailing cold front will move across parts of the Great Plains.
Low-level moisture return along/ahead of the front is expected to remain quite limited, but strong ascent and modest moistening above the surface could support elevated convection from very late afternoon into Tuesday night across parts of the MO Valley and Upper Midwest. The signal for robust convection is currently muted, with the general thunderstorm area reflecting a broad region of low but nonzero potential. With strong low/midlevel flow and robust diurnal heating/mixing expected across the warm sector, the environment will be conditionally favorable for strong to locally severe gusts, if deep convection can be sustained.
..Dean.. 02/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Wednesday, February 18
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Wednesday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 161930
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Wednesday.
Synopsis
A deep mid/upper-level trough is expected to persist over the western CONUS on Wednesday, as multiple embedded shortwaves move through the large-scale trough through the period. Low-topped convection will be possible across southern CA early in the period, with multiple rounds of weak convection possible farther north from the Pacific Northwest to central CA coast. Farther east, a negative-tilt shortwave trough will move across parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes, as multiple low-amplitude vorticity maxima eject eastward toward the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast.
MI into the Lower Great Lakes region
Generally weak elevated convection may spread from lower MI into parts of the Lower Great Lakes through the day, in association with an ejecting midlevel vorticity maximum. Some guidance (such as the ECMWF/GFS) depicts modest surface-based destabilization in the wake of this elevated convection, within a favorably sheared environment. However, this occurs within an otherwise drying environment (with PW falling near/below 0.5 inches), with generally limited low-level ascent. The signal for robust deeper convection is currently very limited, but trends will continue to be monitored regarding the potential for any vigorous surface-based development.
Northern Mid-South region into the Ohio Valley
In response to a mid/upper-level shortwave ejecting from the western trough, a surface cyclone is forecast to deepen across the central High Plains during the day, before moving eastward across KS Wednesday night. Guidance varies regarding the magnitude of low-level moisture return within the warm-sector of this cyclone prior to the end of the period. However, MUCAPE may become sufficient for development of elevated thunderstorms late in the period from parts of northern AR/southern MO into much of KY/TN and adjacent Ohio Valley. Strong deep-layer flow would conditionally support some storm organization, but development of sufficient elevated buoyancy for an organized-severe threat remains uncertain.
..Dean.. 02/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Thursday, February 19
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, February 19 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Friday, February 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, February 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, February 22 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, February 23 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 161000 SPC AC 161000
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range guidance indicates that a sub-1000 mb surface cyclone, centered across the central Great Plains at the outset of the period, may undergo a period of further deepening as it migrates across and northeast of the lower Missouri Valley, toward the Great Lakes, late Thursday afternoon or evening. Perhaps most notable, latest model output appears a bit more aggressive than last night concerning a corridor of warm sector moisture return into the vicinity of the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers. It now appears that this may include surface dew points increasing as high as the upper 50s to lower 60s F by around 20/00Z, which may advect at least a bit further east-northeastward through the lower Ohio Valley, before being cut off later Thursday evening. Though still somewhat modest, and perhaps only supportive of CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg, this probably will be conducive to severe thunderstorm development, in the presence of more than sufficient deep-layer shear and large-scale ascent to support organized convection. This may include supercells with potential to produce tornadoes, and perhaps an upscale growing cluster with strong to severe gusts for a period Thursday evening.
It appears that this cyclone will weaken substantively across the Great Lakes region on Friday, with renewed cyclogenesis possible to the east of the Blue Ridge, or perhaps primarily offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast. So, while increasing low-level moisture return may continue into the warm sector across parts of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic, the extent to which mid/upper support remains conducive to severe weather potential remains unclear.
By late this coming weekend into at least next Monday, convective potential appears likely to diminish as large-scale mid/upper ridging expands across and east of the Rockies toward the Atlantic Seaboard.
..Kerr.. 02/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, February 20
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, February 19 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Friday, February 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, February 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, February 22 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, February 23 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 161000 SPC AC 161000
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range guidance indicates that a sub-1000 mb surface cyclone, centered across the central Great Plains at the outset of the period, may undergo a period of further deepening as it migrates across and northeast of the lower Missouri Valley, toward the Great Lakes, late Thursday afternoon or evening. Perhaps most notable, latest model output appears a bit more aggressive than last night concerning a corridor of warm sector moisture return into the vicinity of the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers. It now appears that this may include surface dew points increasing as high as the upper 50s to lower 60s F by around 20/00Z, which may advect at least a bit further east-northeastward through the lower Ohio Valley, before being cut off later Thursday evening. Though still somewhat modest, and perhaps only supportive of CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg, this probably will be conducive to severe thunderstorm development, in the presence of more than sufficient deep-layer shear and large-scale ascent to support organized convection. This may include supercells with potential to produce tornadoes, and perhaps an upscale growing cluster with strong to severe gusts for a period Thursday evening.
It appears that this cyclone will weaken substantively across the Great Lakes region on Friday, with renewed cyclogenesis possible to the east of the Blue Ridge, or perhaps primarily offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast. So, while increasing low-level moisture return may continue into the warm sector across parts of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic, the extent to which mid/upper support remains conducive to severe weather potential remains unclear.
By late this coming weekend into at least next Monday, convective potential appears likely to diminish as large-scale mid/upper ridging expands across and east of the Rockies toward the Atlantic Seaboard.
..Kerr.. 02/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, February 21
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, February 19 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Friday, February 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, February 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, February 22 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, February 23 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 161000 SPC AC 161000
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range guidance indicates that a sub-1000 mb surface cyclone, centered across the central Great Plains at the outset of the period, may undergo a period of further deepening as it migrates across and northeast of the lower Missouri Valley, toward the Great Lakes, late Thursday afternoon or evening. Perhaps most notable, latest model output appears a bit more aggressive than last night concerning a corridor of warm sector moisture return into the vicinity of the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers. It now appears that this may include surface dew points increasing as high as the upper 50s to lower 60s F by around 20/00Z, which may advect at least a bit further east-northeastward through the lower Ohio Valley, before being cut off later Thursday evening. Though still somewhat modest, and perhaps only supportive of CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg, this probably will be conducive to severe thunderstorm development, in the presence of more than sufficient deep-layer shear and large-scale ascent to support organized convection. This may include supercells with potential to produce tornadoes, and perhaps an upscale growing cluster with strong to severe gusts for a period Thursday evening.
It appears that this cyclone will weaken substantively across the Great Lakes region on Friday, with renewed cyclogenesis possible to the east of the Blue Ridge, or perhaps primarily offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast. So, while increasing low-level moisture return may continue into the warm sector across parts of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic, the extent to which mid/upper support remains conducive to severe weather potential remains unclear.
By late this coming weekend into at least next Monday, convective potential appears likely to diminish as large-scale mid/upper ridging expands across and east of the Rockies toward the Atlantic Seaboard.
..Kerr.. 02/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, February 22
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, February 19 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Friday, February 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, February 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, February 22 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, February 23 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 161000 SPC AC 161000
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range guidance indicates that a sub-1000 mb surface cyclone, centered across the central Great Plains at the outset of the period, may undergo a period of further deepening as it migrates across and northeast of the lower Missouri Valley, toward the Great Lakes, late Thursday afternoon or evening. Perhaps most notable, latest model output appears a bit more aggressive than last night concerning a corridor of warm sector moisture return into the vicinity of the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers. It now appears that this may include surface dew points increasing as high as the upper 50s to lower 60s F by around 20/00Z, which may advect at least a bit further east-northeastward through the lower Ohio Valley, before being cut off later Thursday evening. Though still somewhat modest, and perhaps only supportive of CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg, this probably will be conducive to severe thunderstorm development, in the presence of more than sufficient deep-layer shear and large-scale ascent to support organized convection. This may include supercells with potential to produce tornadoes, and perhaps an upscale growing cluster with strong to severe gusts for a period Thursday evening.
It appears that this cyclone will weaken substantively across the Great Lakes region on Friday, with renewed cyclogenesis possible to the east of the Blue Ridge, or perhaps primarily offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast. So, while increasing low-level moisture return may continue into the warm sector across parts of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic, the extent to which mid/upper support remains conducive to severe weather potential remains unclear.
By late this coming weekend into at least next Monday, convective potential appears likely to diminish as large-scale mid/upper ridging expands across and east of the Rockies toward the Atlantic Seaboard.
..Kerr.. 02/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, February 23
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, February 19 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Friday, February 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, February 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, February 22 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, February 23 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 161000 SPC AC 161000
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range guidance indicates that a sub-1000 mb surface cyclone, centered across the central Great Plains at the outset of the period, may undergo a period of further deepening as it migrates across and northeast of the lower Missouri Valley, toward the Great Lakes, late Thursday afternoon or evening. Perhaps most notable, latest model output appears a bit more aggressive than last night concerning a corridor of warm sector moisture return into the vicinity of the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers. It now appears that this may include surface dew points increasing as high as the upper 50s to lower 60s F by around 20/00Z, which may advect at least a bit further east-northeastward through the lower Ohio Valley, before being cut off later Thursday evening. Though still somewhat modest, and perhaps only supportive of CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg, this probably will be conducive to severe thunderstorm development, in the presence of more than sufficient deep-layer shear and large-scale ascent to support organized convection. This may include supercells with potential to produce tornadoes, and perhaps an upscale growing cluster with strong to severe gusts for a period Thursday evening.
It appears that this cyclone will weaken substantively across the Great Lakes region on Friday, with renewed cyclogenesis possible to the east of the Blue Ridge, or perhaps primarily offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast. So, while increasing low-level moisture return may continue into the warm sector across parts of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic, the extent to which mid/upper support remains conducive to severe weather potential remains unclear.
By late this coming weekend into at least next Monday, convective potential appears likely to diminish as large-scale mid/upper ridging expands across and east of the Rockies toward the Atlantic Seaboard.
..Kerr.. 02/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, February 16
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, February 17
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Wednesday, February 18
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Thursday, February 19
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Friday, February 20
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, February 21
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, February 22
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, February 23
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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