Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, March 3
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe hail may occur this evening into the overnight hours across parts of the southern/central Plains into Missouri and western Illinois.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 031630
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Tue Mar 03 2026
Valid 031630Z - 041200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI AND WESTERN ILLINOIS
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe hail may occur this evening into the overnight hours across parts of the southern/central Plains into Missouri and western Illinois.
Southern/Central Plains into Missouri and Western Illinois
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough over the central Rockies and this feature will move into the central High Plains late tonight. A frontal zone this morning is draped from near the Raton Mesa into the TX Panhandle extends east-northeastward across northern OK into the Ozarks. A weak surface low over northeast NM and the OK/TX Panhandles this morning will gradually develop towards northwest TX by this evening. Southerly low-level flow will maintain a moist fetch into OK today and into the Ozarks and parts of the mid MS Valley. A dryline is forecast to mix eastward across the southern High Plains by late this afternoon, intersecting the surface front in the northwest TX/southwest OK vicinity.
Convection will likely be inhibited during the day across much of the MRGL Risk owing to both capping and weak mid-level shortwave ridging. The strongest heating and low-level convergence is forecast across parts of northwest TX/southwest OK where convective inhibition will become weakened by late afternoon. Have adjusted severe hail probabilities farther south into parts of northwest TX to account for the potential for a supercell or two this evening into the overnight hours. As large-scale forcing for ascent continues to strengthen through the evening into the overnight, expected widely scattered thunderstorms to eventually develop near the frontal zone (perhaps favoring a northwest OK/southern KS corridor). Large hail will be the hazard with the stronger storms. Around 1000-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE, steepened mid-level lapse rates, and strong effective bulk shear suggest that some of these cells may pose a threat for isolated severe hail as they spread from OK/KS into MO and western IL through early Wednesday morning.
..Smith/Wendt.. 03/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Wednesday, March 4
Outlook Summary
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and evening on Wednesday from north-central Texas and southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas, southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Large hail and occasional wind damage will be the primary threats.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 031726
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Tue Mar 03 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TEXAS TO THE SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS
### SUMMARY
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and evening on Wednesday from north-central Texas and southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas, southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Large hail and occasional wind damage will be the primary threats.
Southern Plains to lower OH Valley
A midlevel shortwave trough now over CO will progress eastward and reach the mid MS Valley by early Thursday, in response to an amplifying wave upstream over the Great Basin/CA. An associated weak surface wave will develop east-northeastward along a quasi-stationary baroclinic from the Ozarks to the lower OH Valley, and this baroclinic zone will serve as the primary focus for ascent and convection Wednesday into early Thursday. Boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s will be prevalent along and south of the front by tomorrow, given the returning moisture already present from southeast OK into MS. The low-level moistening will occur beneath the eastern extent of an elevated mixed layer with 7-8 C/km midlevel lapse rates, per 12z soundings across the southern Plains. Surface heating in cloud breaks will contribute to MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg with diminishing convective inhibition along the front through the afternoon.
Elevated convection could be ongoing at the start of the period across southeast KS/northeast OK in a zone of low-level warm advection. Storms will spread east-northeastward through the day toward southeast MO/southern IL and vicinity, while additional storms are probable along the front during the afternoon/evening from central/north TX into eastern OK/western AR. Deep-layer and low-level vertical shear will be sufficient for storm clusters and some supercell structures by late afternoon/evening closer to the path of the weak cyclone and midlevel trough across southern MO, where there will be the potential for large hail, damaging gusts, and a couple of tornadoes. Deep-layer shear will be weaker farther to the southwest toward TX where storms should be more isolated/discrete with an accompanying threat for large hail. Convection may persist through the overnight hours to the immediate cool side of the front.
..Thompson.. 03/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Thursday, March 5
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected Thursday afternoon and into Thursday night from west Texas into Kansas. Large hail appears to be the main threat, though a couple of tornadoes and isolated severe gusts will also be possible.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 031927
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Tue Mar 03 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL KANSAS
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected Thursday afternoon and into Thursday night from west Texas into Kansas. Large hail appears to be the main threat, though a couple of tornadoes and isolated severe gusts will also be possible.
Southern/central Plains Thursday afternoon/night
Amplification of a midlevel trough is expected near the Four Corners Thursday into Thursday night, as a downstream lee cyclone deepens across eastern CO. The deepening cyclone will draw moisture northward from TX across the southern/central Plains through early Friday in the developing warm sector. The lee trough/dryline will be located near or just west of the KS/CO and TX/NM borders by late afternoon as the cyclone deepens in place. Surface heating in cloud breaks could allow sufficient vertical mixing to weaken convective inhibition and allow isolated thunderstorm development along and just east of the dryline by late afternoon across the TX Panhandle/South Plains into southwest KS. The storm environment will conditionally favor supercells capable of producing large hail near or just in excess of 2 inches in diameter. The tornado threat will be a little greater by early evening as low-level shear increases and near 60 F dewpoints surge northward from OK into KS, though the tornado threat will depend on a supercell or two persisting into late evening.
Otherwise, elevated convection will spread northeastward Thursday night as the low-level jet and associated warm/moist advection increase. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support the potential for large hail with the overnight convection as far north as NE/IA.
..Thompson.. 03/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Friday, March 6
Outlook Images
any severe 30%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, March 6 | 30% |
| Day 5 | Saturday, March 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, March 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, March 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, March 10 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030952 SPC AC 030952
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CST Tue Mar 03 2026
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
Friday/Day 4 and Saturday/Day 5
A strong upper-level system is forecast to eject northeastward into the central High Plains on Friday, as an associated 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet translates northeastward ahead of the trough. At the surface, a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place from central and east Texas northward into the lower Missouri Valley. Warming surface temperatures and increasing low-level convergence will support scattered convective initiation to the west of the moist axis. Storms are expected to grow upscale in the mid to late afternoon, moving eastward toward an axis of strong low-level flow. Moderate instability, strong deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will be favorable for supercells. Supercells should be capable of producing tornadoes, large hail and severe wind gusts. The greatest potential is forecast from near the Red River in north Texas north-northeastward across eastern Oklahoma into eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri, where a 30 percent contour has been added. A severe threat is also forecast northeastward into parts of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley, where strong deep-layer shear and sufficient low-level moisture will be in place for a severe threat.
On Saturday, the upper-level system is forecast to move through the north-central U.S., as a cold front advances southeastward into the Ark-La-Tex, mid Mississippi Valley, and lower Great Lakes. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the front during the day as surface temperatures warm. It appears that a marginal severe threat will develop during the mid to late afternoon over much of the northwestern edge of the moist sector from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the Ohio Valley.
Sunday/Day 6 to Tuesday/Day 8
On Sunday in the mid-levels, a 90 to 110 knot jet is forecast to move into the northern U.S., as westerly flow remains over much of the east-central U.S. A front is forecast to become quasi-stationary from the Ozarks eastward into the southern Appalachians. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms with a marginal severe threat may develop to the south of the front during the afternoon.
On Monday and Tuesday, moisture advection is forecast to take place from the central Plains into the Great Lakes, as mid-level flow again becomes southwesterly. Moisture and instability should be favorable for isolated severe storms Monday afternoon in areas that heat up sufficiently. On Tuesday, models forecast a strong upper-level system to eject northeastward into the south-central U.S. If this scenario works out, a greater severe threat appears possible Tuesday afternoon and evening over the southern and central Plains. However, uncertainty is considerable at this range in the forecast period due to a relatively wide spread in the model guidance.
..Broyles.. 03/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, March 7
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, March 6 | 30% |
| Day 5 | Saturday, March 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, March 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, March 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, March 10 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030952 SPC AC 030952
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CST Tue Mar 03 2026
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
Friday/Day 4 and Saturday/Day 5
A strong upper-level system is forecast to eject northeastward into the central High Plains on Friday, as an associated 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet translates northeastward ahead of the trough. At the surface, a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place from central and east Texas northward into the lower Missouri Valley. Warming surface temperatures and increasing low-level convergence will support scattered convective initiation to the west of the moist axis. Storms are expected to grow upscale in the mid to late afternoon, moving eastward toward an axis of strong low-level flow. Moderate instability, strong deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will be favorable for supercells. Supercells should be capable of producing tornadoes, large hail and severe wind gusts. The greatest potential is forecast from near the Red River in north Texas north-northeastward across eastern Oklahoma into eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri, where a 30 percent contour has been added. A severe threat is also forecast northeastward into parts of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley, where strong deep-layer shear and sufficient low-level moisture will be in place for a severe threat.
On Saturday, the upper-level system is forecast to move through the north-central U.S., as a cold front advances southeastward into the Ark-La-Tex, mid Mississippi Valley, and lower Great Lakes. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the front during the day as surface temperatures warm. It appears that a marginal severe threat will develop during the mid to late afternoon over much of the northwestern edge of the moist sector from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the Ohio Valley.
Sunday/Day 6 to Tuesday/Day 8
On Sunday in the mid-levels, a 90 to 110 knot jet is forecast to move into the northern U.S., as westerly flow remains over much of the east-central U.S. A front is forecast to become quasi-stationary from the Ozarks eastward into the southern Appalachians. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms with a marginal severe threat may develop to the south of the front during the afternoon.
On Monday and Tuesday, moisture advection is forecast to take place from the central Plains into the Great Lakes, as mid-level flow again becomes southwesterly. Moisture and instability should be favorable for isolated severe storms Monday afternoon in areas that heat up sufficiently. On Tuesday, models forecast a strong upper-level system to eject northeastward into the south-central U.S. If this scenario works out, a greater severe threat appears possible Tuesday afternoon and evening over the southern and central Plains. However, uncertainty is considerable at this range in the forecast period due to a relatively wide spread in the model guidance.
..Broyles.. 03/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, March 8
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, March 6 | 30% |
| Day 5 | Saturday, March 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, March 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, March 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, March 10 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030952 SPC AC 030952
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CST Tue Mar 03 2026
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
Friday/Day 4 and Saturday/Day 5
A strong upper-level system is forecast to eject northeastward into the central High Plains on Friday, as an associated 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet translates northeastward ahead of the trough. At the surface, a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place from central and east Texas northward into the lower Missouri Valley. Warming surface temperatures and increasing low-level convergence will support scattered convective initiation to the west of the moist axis. Storms are expected to grow upscale in the mid to late afternoon, moving eastward toward an axis of strong low-level flow. Moderate instability, strong deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will be favorable for supercells. Supercells should be capable of producing tornadoes, large hail and severe wind gusts. The greatest potential is forecast from near the Red River in north Texas north-northeastward across eastern Oklahoma into eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri, where a 30 percent contour has been added. A severe threat is also forecast northeastward into parts of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley, where strong deep-layer shear and sufficient low-level moisture will be in place for a severe threat.
On Saturday, the upper-level system is forecast to move through the north-central U.S., as a cold front advances southeastward into the Ark-La-Tex, mid Mississippi Valley, and lower Great Lakes. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the front during the day as surface temperatures warm. It appears that a marginal severe threat will develop during the mid to late afternoon over much of the northwestern edge of the moist sector from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the Ohio Valley.
Sunday/Day 6 to Tuesday/Day 8
On Sunday in the mid-levels, a 90 to 110 knot jet is forecast to move into the northern U.S., as westerly flow remains over much of the east-central U.S. A front is forecast to become quasi-stationary from the Ozarks eastward into the southern Appalachians. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms with a marginal severe threat may develop to the south of the front during the afternoon.
On Monday and Tuesday, moisture advection is forecast to take place from the central Plains into the Great Lakes, as mid-level flow again becomes southwesterly. Moisture and instability should be favorable for isolated severe storms Monday afternoon in areas that heat up sufficiently. On Tuesday, models forecast a strong upper-level system to eject northeastward into the south-central U.S. If this scenario works out, a greater severe threat appears possible Tuesday afternoon and evening over the southern and central Plains. However, uncertainty is considerable at this range in the forecast period due to a relatively wide spread in the model guidance.
..Broyles.. 03/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, March 9
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, March 6 | 30% |
| Day 5 | Saturday, March 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, March 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, March 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, March 10 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030952 SPC AC 030952
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CST Tue Mar 03 2026
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
Friday/Day 4 and Saturday/Day 5
A strong upper-level system is forecast to eject northeastward into the central High Plains on Friday, as an associated 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet translates northeastward ahead of the trough. At the surface, a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place from central and east Texas northward into the lower Missouri Valley. Warming surface temperatures and increasing low-level convergence will support scattered convective initiation to the west of the moist axis. Storms are expected to grow upscale in the mid to late afternoon, moving eastward toward an axis of strong low-level flow. Moderate instability, strong deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will be favorable for supercells. Supercells should be capable of producing tornadoes, large hail and severe wind gusts. The greatest potential is forecast from near the Red River in north Texas north-northeastward across eastern Oklahoma into eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri, where a 30 percent contour has been added. A severe threat is also forecast northeastward into parts of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley, where strong deep-layer shear and sufficient low-level moisture will be in place for a severe threat.
On Saturday, the upper-level system is forecast to move through the north-central U.S., as a cold front advances southeastward into the Ark-La-Tex, mid Mississippi Valley, and lower Great Lakes. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the front during the day as surface temperatures warm. It appears that a marginal severe threat will develop during the mid to late afternoon over much of the northwestern edge of the moist sector from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the Ohio Valley.
Sunday/Day 6 to Tuesday/Day 8
On Sunday in the mid-levels, a 90 to 110 knot jet is forecast to move into the northern U.S., as westerly flow remains over much of the east-central U.S. A front is forecast to become quasi-stationary from the Ozarks eastward into the southern Appalachians. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms with a marginal severe threat may develop to the south of the front during the afternoon.
On Monday and Tuesday, moisture advection is forecast to take place from the central Plains into the Great Lakes, as mid-level flow again becomes southwesterly. Moisture and instability should be favorable for isolated severe storms Monday afternoon in areas that heat up sufficiently. On Tuesday, models forecast a strong upper-level system to eject northeastward into the south-central U.S. If this scenario works out, a greater severe threat appears possible Tuesday afternoon and evening over the southern and central Plains. However, uncertainty is considerable at this range in the forecast period due to a relatively wide spread in the model guidance.
..Broyles.. 03/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, March 10
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, March 6 | 30% |
| Day 5 | Saturday, March 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, March 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, March 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, March 10 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030952 SPC AC 030952
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CST Tue Mar 03 2026
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
Friday/Day 4 and Saturday/Day 5
A strong upper-level system is forecast to eject northeastward into the central High Plains on Friday, as an associated 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet translates northeastward ahead of the trough. At the surface, a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place from central and east Texas northward into the lower Missouri Valley. Warming surface temperatures and increasing low-level convergence will support scattered convective initiation to the west of the moist axis. Storms are expected to grow upscale in the mid to late afternoon, moving eastward toward an axis of strong low-level flow. Moderate instability, strong deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will be favorable for supercells. Supercells should be capable of producing tornadoes, large hail and severe wind gusts. The greatest potential is forecast from near the Red River in north Texas north-northeastward across eastern Oklahoma into eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri, where a 30 percent contour has been added. A severe threat is also forecast northeastward into parts of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley, where strong deep-layer shear and sufficient low-level moisture will be in place for a severe threat.
On Saturday, the upper-level system is forecast to move through the north-central U.S., as a cold front advances southeastward into the Ark-La-Tex, mid Mississippi Valley, and lower Great Lakes. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the front during the day as surface temperatures warm. It appears that a marginal severe threat will develop during the mid to late afternoon over much of the northwestern edge of the moist sector from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the Ohio Valley.
Sunday/Day 6 to Tuesday/Day 8
On Sunday in the mid-levels, a 90 to 110 knot jet is forecast to move into the northern U.S., as westerly flow remains over much of the east-central U.S. A front is forecast to become quasi-stationary from the Ozarks eastward into the southern Appalachians. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms with a marginal severe threat may develop to the south of the front during the afternoon.
On Monday and Tuesday, moisture advection is forecast to take place from the central Plains into the Great Lakes, as mid-level flow again becomes southwesterly. Moisture and instability should be favorable for isolated severe storms Monday afternoon in areas that heat up sufficiently. On Tuesday, models forecast a strong upper-level system to eject northeastward into the south-central U.S. If this scenario works out, a greater severe threat appears possible Tuesday afternoon and evening over the southern and central Plains. However, uncertainty is considerable at this range in the forecast period due to a relatively wide spread in the model guidance.
..Broyles.. 03/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, March 3
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: low
- Wednesday, March 4
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Thursday, March 5
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Friday, March 6
- ANY SEVERE: 30%
- Saturday, March 7
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, March 8
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, March 9
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, March 10
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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