Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Saturday, September 5

Outlook Summary

The threat of strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging winds will continue this afternoon/evening across parts of the Carolinas and southern Virginia. Isolated large hail and severe winds may also occur over parts of the northern/central Plains through tonight.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 052000

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Sep 05 2026

Valid 052000Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA

### SUMMARY

The threat of strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging winds will continue this afternoon/evening across parts of the Carolinas and southern Virginia. Isolated large hail and severe winds may also occur over parts of the northern/central Plains through tonight.

20Z Update

Only minor changes were made with this update. The SLGT Risk was trimmed behind an east-southeastward moving band of convection moving across the Carolinas. While isolated redevelopment cannot be entirely ruled out in the wake of this activity, the primary severe risk will continue spreading eastward to the coast into this evening.

Farther west, 5-percent hail probabilities were added in parts of the lower OH Valley. Here, relatively steep deep-layer lapse rates, around 30 kt of effective shear, and a cellular mode may support isolated instances of marginally severe hail.

Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track.

..Weinman.. 09/05/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Sat Sep 05 2026/

Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas

An earlier MCS across the OH Valley has weakened as it crossed/moved eastward over the central Appalachians. The strongest remaining convective segment is ongoing late this morning across parts of southwest VA/northeast TN. Robust destabilization is expected to continue this afternoon downstream of this activity across southern VA into the Carolinas, with MLCAPE peaking around 2500-3500 J/kg over central/eastern NC. This region will be on the southern periphery of modestly enhanced mid-level west-northwesterly flow, and sufficient deep-layer shear will be present to maintain some convective organization.

Current expectations are for one or more thunderstorm clusters to gradually increase in intensity this afternoon as they spread eastward across southern VA and central/eastern NC, with some uncertainty whether the ongoing convection will restrengthen, or if new development will occur along its outflow. Regardless, latest guidance and observational trends still suggest that a relatively greater threat for damaging winds should exist this afternoon across central/eastern NC and vicinity, where the greatest thunderstorm coverage, maxima in MLCAPE/DCAPE, and steepened low-level lapse rates are forecast. Have therefore introduced higher severe wind probabilities (30% area) across this region. Isolated hail may also occur with the strongest cores that can develop, although mid-level lapse rates are expected to remain rather poor. Severe potential should gradually wane this evening with the loss of daytime heating, and as convection moves offshore.

Farther west, outflow from the morning thunderstorms may serve as a focus for renewed thunderstorm development this afternoon from parts of the OH Valley southeastward into the TN Valley. This region will be displaced from the stronger flow aloft present over the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, with weak deep-layer shear expected. Still, some risk for isolated damaging winds may exist with any loosely organized cells/clusters that can develop given the presence of moderate to locally strong instability.

Northern/Central Plains

A highly amplified mid/upper-level ridge will remain anchored over the central CONUS into south-central Canada through the period, with generally neutral to weakly rising mid-level heights expected over the northern/central Plains. Ongoing elevated cells across northern ND may continue to pose an isolated severe hail threat in the short term, but weakening low-level warm advection should tend to result in a further decrease in intensity with this activity. Otherwise, additional isolated to perhaps widely scattered high-based thunderstorms may develop this afternoon along/east of a surface lee trough over the northern/central Plains. While mid-level flow and related effective bulk shear should remain weak, occasional severe gusts may still occur with convective downdrafts given a well-mixed boundary layer. Some risk for hail and gusty winds may also exist with elevated convection that should eventually develop tonight into early Sunday morning in a renewed/modest low-level warm advection regime.

Western Montana

To the east of a closed mid-level low over WA/OR, a belt of enhanced southwesterly mid/upper-level winds will extend across the northern Rockies. Gradually increasing moisture and large-scale ascent aloft associated with a weak/embedded shortwave trough are expected to support an increase in isolated thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. Lapse rates through low/mid levels will be steep with strong deep-layer shear present, but modest low-level moisture should limit MLCAPE to generally less than 500 J/kg. The potential for severe wind gusts still appears too low to justify including 5% wind probabilities at this time.

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

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Outlook for Sunday, September 6

Outlook Summary

Damaging wind gusts are likely across portions of the Southeast Sunday afternoon and early evening. Additional areas at risk for severe wind and hail are across parts of northern Utah northward into Montana and east into the northern Plains and Middle Missouri Valley.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 051730

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Sep 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS

### SUMMARY

Damaging wind gusts are likely across portions of the Southeast Sunday afternoon and early evening. Additional areas at risk for severe wind and hail are across parts of northern Utah northward into Montana and east into the northern Plains and Middle Missouri Valley.

Synopsis

A high-amplitude mid-level ridge will persist across the central US on Sunday, with troughing across both the east and west coasts. Embedded within the basal region of the western trough, a closed low should open up and take on a negative tilt as it moves along the northwest periphery of the central ridge.

At the surface, an anticyclone will be located across the upper Great Lakes, ushering in a cooler, drier air mass from the Upper Midwest east across the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. Demarcating the boundary between this continental air mass and the more maritime air mass to the south and west will be a front stretched from the Minnesota-North/South Dakota border south and east to southeast Missouri and then east from there to the East Coast.

### Southeast

A very humid air mass will be in place across the region, with HREF mean dewpoint temperatures in the upper-60Fs to low-70Fs. Diurnal heating will allow afternoon temperatures to warm into the low-to-mid-90Fs, yielding MUCAPE values in excess of 1500 J/kg. (High-resolution guidance is generally in the 1500-2500 J/kg range, with coarser-scale guidance, such as the RAP, showing perhaps as high as 4000 J/kg.)

Scattered thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon as convective temperatures are reached. Precipitable water values around 2 inches and DCAPE values in excess of 1000 J/kg will support heavy, water-laden downbursts capable of scattered wind damage. Slightly better deep-layer shear across portions of Georgia and the Carolinas may support at least transient thunderstorm organization in the form of multi-cell clusters which may pose a slightly greater risk of organized wind damage.

### Mid-Missouri Valley and Northern Plains

Thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the forecast period across portions of the area or develop shortly thereafter. These thunderstorms will likely be driven by strong warm-air advection near the apex of the mid-level ridge. These storms may initially pose a risk of large hail and gusty winds. With time, diurnal heating may support a transition from elevated-to-surface based thunderstorms, increasing the potential for damaging winds, especially as low-level lapse rate steepen. Deep-layer shear will support individual storms moving southeast while the larger-scale evolution will be toward the southwest.

The exact evolution of this convection, in particular where the narrow corridor develops, remains a bit uncertain. As confidence increases in the location of these storms, higher severe weather probabilities may be needed.

### Northwest Utah into Montana

As the western mid-level low opens and takes on a negative tilt as it traverses the northwest periphery of the central US ridge, large-scale ascent will support scattered thunderstorm development across portions of northwest Utah, Idaho, and western Wyoming. Strong mid-level flow (around 50 knots at 500 millibars) coupled with a deep, well-mixed boundary layer will support downward momentum transfer within these thunderstorms capable of producing scattered wind damage. These storms will quickly move northeast into Montana during the evening hours. If coverage of these storms is greater than expected, higher wind probabilities would be warranted in subsequent outlooks.

..Marsh.. 09/05/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Monday, September 7

Outlook Summary

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern and central Plains into Minnesota on Monday.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 051944

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Sat Sep 05 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MINNESOTA

### SUMMARY

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern and central Plains into Minnesota on Monday.

Northern Plains into the Upper Great Lakes

A mid-level shortwave trough will lift northeast on Monday, impinging on the central US ridge. Strong southwesterly mid-level flow associated with the trough will overspread an increasingly warm and moist low-level airmass across the north-central US. Given low-level flow will be more southerly, the resulting vertically veering profiles will result in effective shear ranging from 35 knots to more than 50 knots. Forecast soundings indicate that an elevated mixed layer should advect over the Plains during the day resulting in capping issues for most of the afternoon. However, as cooler mid-level temperatures overspread the unstable and sheared airmass, afternoon thunderstorms will at least be possible. These storms should pose a threat for large hail and, if the storms can tap into the boundary layer, strong thunderstorm winds. As the low-level jet increases during the evening, an increase in storm coverage is expected, with perhaps one or more MCSs evolving across portions of the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota. Isolated large hail and perhaps damaging winds will be possible.

..Marsh.. 09/05/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, September 8

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050744 SPC AC 050744

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Sat Sep 05 2026

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-6/Tue-Thu – Central Plains to Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic

An upper shortwave trough will shift east across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes and northeast through Thursday. An associated surface low will mainly remain over Canada, but a trailing cold front will sweep across parts of the central Plains and Upper Midwest on Tuesday, before continuing south and east into Kansas and across the Great Lakes on Wednesday. By Thursday, the boundary is expected to continue south and east across the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Stronger large-scale ascent will likely remain focused near and north of the international border. Furthermore, the corridor of deeper boundary layer moisture may be somewhat limited, especially Tuesday into Wednesday, due to a prior cold frontal passage and surface high pressure over the Midwest. Nevertheless, enhanced deep-layer flow, and corridors of at least modest instability along the cold front could support some severe risk. However, confidence in 15 percent or greater coverage is low at this time frame.

Days 7-8/Fri-Sat – Northern/Central Plains to Upper Midwest

At the end of the period, another upper shortwave trough may dig southeast from the Pacific Northwest and into the Plains. Another, perhaps stronger, cold front could sweep across the Plains and the Mid/Upper MS Valley. Depending on moisture return in the wake of the earlier cold frontal passage, some severe risk could develop during the weekend. Furthermore, large spread exists among various guidance regarding the evolution of the this upper trough, resulting in uncertainty in greater corridors of severe potential.

..Leitman.. 09/05/2026

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Outlook for Wednesday, September 9

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050744 SPC AC 050744

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Sat Sep 05 2026

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-6/Tue-Thu – Central Plains to Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic

An upper shortwave trough will shift east across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes and northeast through Thursday. An associated surface low will mainly remain over Canada, but a trailing cold front will sweep across parts of the central Plains and Upper Midwest on Tuesday, before continuing south and east into Kansas and across the Great Lakes on Wednesday. By Thursday, the boundary is expected to continue south and east across the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Stronger large-scale ascent will likely remain focused near and north of the international border. Furthermore, the corridor of deeper boundary layer moisture may be somewhat limited, especially Tuesday into Wednesday, due to a prior cold frontal passage and surface high pressure over the Midwest. Nevertheless, enhanced deep-layer flow, and corridors of at least modest instability along the cold front could support some severe risk. However, confidence in 15 percent or greater coverage is low at this time frame.

Days 7-8/Fri-Sat – Northern/Central Plains to Upper Midwest

At the end of the period, another upper shortwave trough may dig southeast from the Pacific Northwest and into the Plains. Another, perhaps stronger, cold front could sweep across the Plains and the Mid/Upper MS Valley. Depending on moisture return in the wake of the earlier cold frontal passage, some severe risk could develop during the weekend. Furthermore, large spread exists among various guidance regarding the evolution of the this upper trough, resulting in uncertainty in greater corridors of severe potential.

..Leitman.. 09/05/2026

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Outlook for Thursday, September 10

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050744 SPC AC 050744

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Sat Sep 05 2026

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-6/Tue-Thu – Central Plains to Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic

An upper shortwave trough will shift east across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes and northeast through Thursday. An associated surface low will mainly remain over Canada, but a trailing cold front will sweep across parts of the central Plains and Upper Midwest on Tuesday, before continuing south and east into Kansas and across the Great Lakes on Wednesday. By Thursday, the boundary is expected to continue south and east across the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Stronger large-scale ascent will likely remain focused near and north of the international border. Furthermore, the corridor of deeper boundary layer moisture may be somewhat limited, especially Tuesday into Wednesday, due to a prior cold frontal passage and surface high pressure over the Midwest. Nevertheless, enhanced deep-layer flow, and corridors of at least modest instability along the cold front could support some severe risk. However, confidence in 15 percent or greater coverage is low at this time frame.

Days 7-8/Fri-Sat – Northern/Central Plains to Upper Midwest

At the end of the period, another upper shortwave trough may dig southeast from the Pacific Northwest and into the Plains. Another, perhaps stronger, cold front could sweep across the Plains and the Mid/Upper MS Valley. Depending on moisture return in the wake of the earlier cold frontal passage, some severe risk could develop during the weekend. Furthermore, large spread exists among various guidance regarding the evolution of the this upper trough, resulting in uncertainty in greater corridors of severe potential.

..Leitman.. 09/05/2026

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Outlook for Friday, September 11

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050744 SPC AC 050744

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Sat Sep 05 2026

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-6/Tue-Thu – Central Plains to Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic

An upper shortwave trough will shift east across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes and northeast through Thursday. An associated surface low will mainly remain over Canada, but a trailing cold front will sweep across parts of the central Plains and Upper Midwest on Tuesday, before continuing south and east into Kansas and across the Great Lakes on Wednesday. By Thursday, the boundary is expected to continue south and east across the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Stronger large-scale ascent will likely remain focused near and north of the international border. Furthermore, the corridor of deeper boundary layer moisture may be somewhat limited, especially Tuesday into Wednesday, due to a prior cold frontal passage and surface high pressure over the Midwest. Nevertheless, enhanced deep-layer flow, and corridors of at least modest instability along the cold front could support some severe risk. However, confidence in 15 percent or greater coverage is low at this time frame.

Days 7-8/Fri-Sat – Northern/Central Plains to Upper Midwest

At the end of the period, another upper shortwave trough may dig southeast from the Pacific Northwest and into the Plains. Another, perhaps stronger, cold front could sweep across the Plains and the Mid/Upper MS Valley. Depending on moisture return in the wake of the earlier cold frontal passage, some severe risk could develop during the weekend. Furthermore, large spread exists among various guidance regarding the evolution of the this upper trough, resulting in uncertainty in greater corridors of severe potential.

..Leitman.. 09/05/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, September 12

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050744 SPC AC 050744

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Sat Sep 05 2026

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-6/Tue-Thu – Central Plains to Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic

An upper shortwave trough will shift east across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes and northeast through Thursday. An associated surface low will mainly remain over Canada, but a trailing cold front will sweep across parts of the central Plains and Upper Midwest on Tuesday, before continuing south and east into Kansas and across the Great Lakes on Wednesday. By Thursday, the boundary is expected to continue south and east across the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Stronger large-scale ascent will likely remain focused near and north of the international border. Furthermore, the corridor of deeper boundary layer moisture may be somewhat limited, especially Tuesday into Wednesday, due to a prior cold frontal passage and surface high pressure over the Midwest. Nevertheless, enhanced deep-layer flow, and corridors of at least modest instability along the cold front could support some severe risk. However, confidence in 15 percent or greater coverage is low at this time frame.

Days 7-8/Fri-Sat – Northern/Central Plains to Upper Midwest

At the end of the period, another upper shortwave trough may dig southeast from the Pacific Northwest and into the Plains. Another, perhaps stronger, cold front could sweep across the Plains and the Mid/Upper MS Valley. Depending on moisture return in the wake of the earlier cold frontal passage, some severe risk could develop during the weekend. Furthermore, large spread exists among various guidance regarding the evolution of the this upper trough, resulting in uncertainty in greater corridors of severe potential.

..Leitman.. 09/05/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Saturday, September 5

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 30%

Sunday, September 6

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 15%

Monday, September 7

ANY SEVERE: 5%

Tuesday, September 8

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Wednesday, September 9

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Thursday, September 10

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, September 11

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Saturday, September 12

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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