Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Saturday, June 13

Sunday, June 14

Monday, June 15

Tuesday, June 16

Wednesday, June 17

Thursday, June 18

Friday, June 19

Outlook for Saturday, June 13

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central and southern Plains into the Missouri Valley. Swaths of damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a couple of tornadoes are all possible.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 5%

wind 30%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 130559

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS…MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI…AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central and southern Plains into the Missouri Valley. Swaths of damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a couple of tornadoes are all possible.

Synopsis

Within the base of a broad large-scale trough and accompanying belt of strong midlevel westerlies over the northern CONUS, an embedded positive-tilt midlevel trough will overspread the northern Plains through the period. In the low-levels, a weak surface low will move slowly eastward across western/central KS during the day, before being overtaken by a cold front into the evening hours.

Central/Southern Plains into the Missouri Valley

At the start of the period, a cluster of elevated thunderstorms should be tracking eastward from NE into IA – along the nose of a gradually weakening nocturnal low-level jet. Steep midlevel lapse rates and 40-50 kt of effective shear will favor large hail with this activity. At the same time, a convectively augmented midlevel impulse and lingering convection should be advancing eastward from eastern KS into MO. Diurnal heating of a moist air mass should favor a gradual increase in convective coverage and intensity along related outflow into the afternoon hours. Moderate surface-based buoyancy and 30-40 kt of effective shear will support organized clusters and potentially supercells structures, with a risk of damaging wind gusts and large hail. Some guidance suggests that this activity may grow upscale into one or more organized clusters while moving east-southeastward into the evening hours.

Farther west, strong diurnal heating/steepening low-level lapse rates preceding the surface low will result in scattered thunderstorm development from the central Plains into the lower MO Valley. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer moisture will yield a strongly unstable air mass, which combined with around 40 kt of effective shear, will favor organized clusters and semi-discrete supercells. Large hail and locally severe wind gusts will be the main concerns with initially semi-discrete storms. With time, additional thunderstorm development is expected along the southeastward-moving cold front. As a result, several intense/organized clusters will spread east-southeastward through a corridor of strong surface-based buoyancy – posing an increasing risk of scattered severe wind gusts (some 75+ mph). Despite the expectation for upscale growth, embedded supercells will remain possible, and given ample low-level shear and rich moisture, a couple tornadoes will also be possible.

..Weinman.. 06/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Sunday, June 14

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts are expected across the Mid-Atlantic vicinity Sunday afternoon and evening. Additional strong to severe storms are expected across the Upper Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes area.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 30%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 130515

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts are expected across the Mid-Atlantic vicinity Sunday afternoon and evening. Additional strong to severe storms are expected across the Upper Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes area.

Mid-Atlantic Region

An upper trough will be oriented over the Upper Great Lakes Sunday morning. A shortwave embedded within the large-scale troughing will pivot east across the Midwest/Lower Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic. Ahead of this main shortwave trough, most guidance suggests a lead impulse will overspread the Chesapeake Bay vicinity during the afternoon. Low to midlevel west/southwesterly flow will increase to around 30-40 kt in association with these features. This enhanced flow will aid in organized thunderstorms in multiple bands during the afternoon and evening.

Rich boundary layer moisture is expected to be in place to the lee of the Blue Ridge across the NC/VA Piedmont and Chesapeake Bay vicinity into southeast PA/southern NJ. Northward extent of moisture return remains a bit uncertain, but at least low 60s F dewpoints should filter into much of PA and NY ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. Strong heating will support a corridor of moderate destabilization, with MLCAPE in the 1500-2500 J/kg range across eastern VA/NC and vicinity. Instability is expected to be more muted with northward extent where boundary layer moisture will be somewhat less and midlevel lapse rates rather poor.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop within lee troughing near the Blue Ridge and spread east across the Chesapeake/DelMarVa/southeast PA/southern NJ vicinity during the afternoon to early evening. Damaging wind gusts will be the main concern with these storms, though isolated hail or a tornado also will be possible. If current model trends continue, higher coverage probabilities/upgrade to Enhanced (Level 3 of 5) could be needed in subsequent outlooks. For now, wind probabilities have been increased to 30 percent across the DelMarVa into southeast PA/southern NJ.

Additional bands/clusters of storms are likely to develop during the afternoon ahead of the advancing cold front from the Upper Ohio Valley into PA/NY. While instability will be lower across this area, deep-layer flow will be stronger. Linear bands and clusters will pose a risk for isolated severe/damaging wind gusts through the evening.

Southeast NM to the ArkLaTex

A southward sagging surface front/composite outflow will extend west to east across the region. A very moist and moderately unstable airmass will be in place ahead of the front. Isolated convection cold pose a risk for strong wind gusts. Across southeast NM/southwest TX, a few storms could also produce hail. Weak large-scale ascent and convection becoming undercut by the surface boundary will limit overall severe potential.

..Leitman.. 06/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Monday, June 15

Outlook Summary

Scattered thunderstorms are possible from the Gulf Coast states to the Carolinas, and across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest. Severe thunderstorm potential appears limited at this time.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 130634

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Scattered thunderstorms are possible from the Gulf Coast states to the Carolinas, and across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest. Severe thunderstorm potential appears limited at this time.

Synopsis

Broad upper troughing will envelop much of the CONUS east of the Rockies on Monday. Modest deepening of the trough will result in a belt of increasing northwesterly flow aloft from the northern High Plains into the Mid-South. At the surface, a cold front will extend from the southern Mid-Atlantic coast west/southwest across the Gulf Coast states into central TX. This boundary will sag southward through the period. Rich boundary layer moisture will be in place ahead of the boundary, but this region will remain displaced to the south of strong mid/upper level flow. Scattered thunderstorms are possible, and some gusty winds could occur. However, organized severe potential appears limited.

Further north across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, scant boundary layer moisture is forecast. Weak destabilization is possible via cooling aloft/steepening lapse rates. This could be sufficient for isolated, higher-based thunderstorms. Gusty winds and maybe small hail could occur, but overall severe potential appears low.

..Leitman.. 06/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, June 16

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, June 15	low / uncertain
Day 5	Tuesday, June 16	predictability too low
Day 6	Wednesday, June 17	predictability too low
Day 7	Thursday, June 18	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, June 19	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120736 SPC AC 120736

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-5/Mon-Tue

A surface front will remain across south TX and the Gulf Coast vicinity while broad upper troughing persists east of the Rockies. As a result, severe potential is expected to remain limited as any deep Gulf moisture and stronger instability will remain well removed from any stronger mid/upper flow associated with the upper trough.

Days 6-7/Wed-Thu - Southern Plains to Midwest

A mid/upper shortwave trough will move from the northern Rockies to the MS Valley on Wednesday, and the OH Valley to the Northeast on Thursday. Deepening surface low pressure will shift from the central Plains to the Northeast and southwesterly deep-layer flow increases. This will result in northward transport of Gulf moisture into the Plains/Midwest on Wednesday, and the Northeast by Thursday. This could result in increasing severe potential for portions of these regions. Currently, capping across the Plains my limit storm coverage across that region on Wednesday. Furthermore, timing of greater moisture return across the Midwest ahead of a surface cold front is uncertain. Severe probabilities may be needed eventually, but uncertainty remains too high to introduce unconditional probabilities at this time.

Day 8/Fri

Upper ridging is expected to develop over the Rockies into the Plains by the end of the forecast period. Meanwhile, upper troughing will pivot northeast across New England. Some guidance suggests a shortwave impulse could eject from the Rockies into the central Plains within the broader scale upper ridging. This could support some severe potential, but overall predictability is low given large model spread.

..Leitman.. 06/12/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Wednesday, June 17

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, June 15	low / uncertain
Day 5	Tuesday, June 16	predictability too low
Day 6	Wednesday, June 17	predictability too low
Day 7	Thursday, June 18	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, June 19	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120736 SPC AC 120736

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-5/Mon-Tue

A surface front will remain across south TX and the Gulf Coast vicinity while broad upper troughing persists east of the Rockies. As a result, severe potential is expected to remain limited as any deep Gulf moisture and stronger instability will remain well removed from any stronger mid/upper flow associated with the upper trough.

Days 6-7/Wed-Thu - Southern Plains to Midwest

A mid/upper shortwave trough will move from the northern Rockies to the MS Valley on Wednesday, and the OH Valley to the Northeast on Thursday. Deepening surface low pressure will shift from the central Plains to the Northeast and southwesterly deep-layer flow increases. This will result in northward transport of Gulf moisture into the Plains/Midwest on Wednesday, and the Northeast by Thursday. This could result in increasing severe potential for portions of these regions. Currently, capping across the Plains my limit storm coverage across that region on Wednesday. Furthermore, timing of greater moisture return across the Midwest ahead of a surface cold front is uncertain. Severe probabilities may be needed eventually, but uncertainty remains too high to introduce unconditional probabilities at this time.

Day 8/Fri

Upper ridging is expected to develop over the Rockies into the Plains by the end of the forecast period. Meanwhile, upper troughing will pivot northeast across New England. Some guidance suggests a shortwave impulse could eject from the Rockies into the central Plains within the broader scale upper ridging. This could support some severe potential, but overall predictability is low given large model spread.

..Leitman.. 06/12/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Thursday, June 18

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, June 15	low / uncertain
Day 5	Tuesday, June 16	predictability too low
Day 6	Wednesday, June 17	predictability too low
Day 7	Thursday, June 18	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, June 19	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120736 SPC AC 120736

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-5/Mon-Tue

A surface front will remain across south TX and the Gulf Coast vicinity while broad upper troughing persists east of the Rockies. As a result, severe potential is expected to remain limited as any deep Gulf moisture and stronger instability will remain well removed from any stronger mid/upper flow associated with the upper trough.

Days 6-7/Wed-Thu - Southern Plains to Midwest

A mid/upper shortwave trough will move from the northern Rockies to the MS Valley on Wednesday, and the OH Valley to the Northeast on Thursday. Deepening surface low pressure will shift from the central Plains to the Northeast and southwesterly deep-layer flow increases. This will result in northward transport of Gulf moisture into the Plains/Midwest on Wednesday, and the Northeast by Thursday. This could result in increasing severe potential for portions of these regions. Currently, capping across the Plains my limit storm coverage across that region on Wednesday. Furthermore, timing of greater moisture return across the Midwest ahead of a surface cold front is uncertain. Severe probabilities may be needed eventually, but uncertainty remains too high to introduce unconditional probabilities at this time.

Day 8/Fri

Upper ridging is expected to develop over the Rockies into the Plains by the end of the forecast period. Meanwhile, upper troughing will pivot northeast across New England. Some guidance suggests a shortwave impulse could eject from the Rockies into the central Plains within the broader scale upper ridging. This could support some severe potential, but overall predictability is low given large model spread.

..Leitman.. 06/12/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Friday, June 19

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, June 15	low / uncertain
Day 5	Tuesday, June 16	predictability too low
Day 6	Wednesday, June 17	predictability too low
Day 7	Thursday, June 18	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, June 19	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120736 SPC AC 120736

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-5/Mon-Tue

A surface front will remain across south TX and the Gulf Coast vicinity while broad upper troughing persists east of the Rockies. As a result, severe potential is expected to remain limited as any deep Gulf moisture and stronger instability will remain well removed from any stronger mid/upper flow associated with the upper trough.

Days 6-7/Wed-Thu - Southern Plains to Midwest

A mid/upper shortwave trough will move from the northern Rockies to the MS Valley on Wednesday, and the OH Valley to the Northeast on Thursday. Deepening surface low pressure will shift from the central Plains to the Northeast and southwesterly deep-layer flow increases. This will result in northward transport of Gulf moisture into the Plains/Midwest on Wednesday, and the Northeast by Thursday. This could result in increasing severe potential for portions of these regions. Currently, capping across the Plains my limit storm coverage across that region on Wednesday. Furthermore, timing of greater moisture return across the Midwest ahead of a surface cold front is uncertain. Severe probabilities may be needed eventually, but uncertainty remains too high to introduce unconditional probabilities at this time.

Day 8/Fri

Upper ridging is expected to develop over the Rockies into the Plains by the end of the forecast period. Meanwhile, upper troughing will pivot northeast across New England. Some guidance suggests a shortwave impulse could eject from the Rockies into the central Plains within the broader scale upper ridging. This could support some severe potential, but overall predictability is low given large model spread.

..Leitman.. 06/12/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

National Risk Overview

Saturday, June 13: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 30%
Sunday, June 14: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 30%
Monday, June 15: ANY SEVERE: low
Tuesday, June 16: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, June 17: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, June 18: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, June 19: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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