Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Tuesday, January 13

Wednesday, January 14

Thursday, January 15

Friday, January 16

Saturday, January 17

Sunday, January 18

Monday, January 19

Tuesday, January 20

Outlook for Tuesday, January 13

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 131933

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Valid 132000Z - 141200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

20z Update

No changes are needed for the Day 1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion for more information.

..Thornton.. 01/13/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026/

Synopsis

Upper pattern is expected to undergo significant amplification today as a series of shortwave troughs act to deepen the upper troughing across the central and eastern CONUS, and the upper ridging over the western CONUS remains in place. Primary amplification will be associated with a pair of phased shortwave troughs moving through the western periphery of the upper troughing over the Plains and Upper Midwest.

Continental airmass associated with these shortwaves will also act to reinforce the dry and stable conditions already in place across the majority of the central and eastern CONUS. The only exception currently is across far south FL and the FL Keys, where remaining low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the upper 60s) is supporting modest buoyancy. This buoyancy coupled with low-level convergence in the vicinity of the southeast FL coast and the Keys is fostering some deeper convective cores. A few lightning flashes have recently been observed near the middle Keys, and the expectation is for occasional flashes to persist from the Keys into the far southeast FL Coast throughout the day.

Lastly, broad ascent is anticipated across the Southeast tonight/early tomorrow, resulting from a combination of lift associated with the southernmost shortwave moving through upper trough and lift attendant to another shortwave moving from TX into the Lower MS Valley. Dry and stable low-levels will keep the region free of sustained deep convection, but some forecast soundings do show limited and shallow buoyancy above 700 mb. As such, there is low potential for a flash or two across this region.

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, January 14

Outlook Summary

Isolated thunderstorms are possible across southeast Florida and the Keys on Wednesday.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 131716

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Isolated thunderstorms are possible across southeast Florida and the Keys on Wednesday.

Southeast FL and the Keys

Within the base of an amplified large-scale trough encompassing the eastern half of the CONUS, a midlevel shortwave trough will advance eastward across the Gulf of America toward the FL Peninsula. In response, an initially stalled front will move eastward across Southeast FL and the Keys during the afternoon. Most guidance (with the exception of the RAP) depicts marginally sufficient buoyancy for isolated thunderstorms along the eastward-moving front during the day. A secondary/stronger cold front will approach western FL late in the period, though thunderstorms are not currently expected owing to limited buoyancy.

..Weinman.. 01/13/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z

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Outlook for Thursday, January 15

Outlook Summary

Isolated thunderstorms are possible across far southern Florida and the Keys on Thursday.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 131904

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Isolated thunderstorms are possible across far southern Florida and the Keys on Thursday.

Southern FL and the Keys

A robust midlevel trough will advance eastward across the Southeast into the western Atlantic during the day, while a related cold front moves southeastward across far southern FL and the Keys. While buoyancy will be limited, frontal convergence and at least modest midlevel height falls should support isolated thunderstorms during the morning and afternoon. Despite ample deep-layer shear, the weak buoyancy should tend to limit updraft strength and related severe potential.

..Weinman.. 01/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z

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Outlook for Friday, January 16

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Friday, January 16	potential too low
Day 5	Saturday, January 17	potential too low
Day 6	Sunday, January 18	potential too low
Day 7	Monday, January 19	potential too low
Day 8	Tuesday, January 20	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130935 SPC AC 130935

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

DISCUSSION

A persistent eastern U.S large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to remain in place through the Day 4 to 8 period. As a result, northwesterly mid-level flow is forecast over much of the continental U.S. In response, multiple cold air intrusions are expected to take place across the central and eastern U.S. This will keep a relatively dry and cold airmass over much of the nation through early next week. For this reason, conditions will be unfavorable for thunderstorms in most areas, and a severe threat is not forecast in the Day 4 to 8 period.

..Broyles.. 01/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, January 17

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Friday, January 16	potential too low
Day 5	Saturday, January 17	potential too low
Day 6	Sunday, January 18	potential too low
Day 7	Monday, January 19	potential too low
Day 8	Tuesday, January 20	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130935 SPC AC 130935

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

DISCUSSION

A persistent eastern U.S large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to remain in place through the Day 4 to 8 period. As a result, northwesterly mid-level flow is forecast over much of the continental U.S. In response, multiple cold air intrusions are expected to take place across the central and eastern U.S. This will keep a relatively dry and cold airmass over much of the nation through early next week. For this reason, conditions will be unfavorable for thunderstorms in most areas, and a severe threat is not forecast in the Day 4 to 8 period.

..Broyles.. 01/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Sunday, January 18

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Friday, January 16	potential too low
Day 5	Saturday, January 17	potential too low
Day 6	Sunday, January 18	potential too low
Day 7	Monday, January 19	potential too low
Day 8	Tuesday, January 20	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130935 SPC AC 130935

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

DISCUSSION

A persistent eastern U.S large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to remain in place through the Day 4 to 8 period. As a result, northwesterly mid-level flow is forecast over much of the continental U.S. In response, multiple cold air intrusions are expected to take place across the central and eastern U.S. This will keep a relatively dry and cold airmass over much of the nation through early next week. For this reason, conditions will be unfavorable for thunderstorms in most areas, and a severe threat is not forecast in the Day 4 to 8 period.

..Broyles.. 01/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Monday, January 19

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Friday, January 16	potential too low
Day 5	Saturday, January 17	potential too low
Day 6	Sunday, January 18	potential too low
Day 7	Monday, January 19	potential too low
Day 8	Tuesday, January 20	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130935 SPC AC 130935

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

DISCUSSION

A persistent eastern U.S large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to remain in place through the Day 4 to 8 period. As a result, northwesterly mid-level flow is forecast over much of the continental U.S. In response, multiple cold air intrusions are expected to take place across the central and eastern U.S. This will keep a relatively dry and cold airmass over much of the nation through early next week. For this reason, conditions will be unfavorable for thunderstorms in most areas, and a severe threat is not forecast in the Day 4 to 8 period.

..Broyles.. 01/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Tuesday, January 20

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Friday, January 16	potential too low
Day 5	Saturday, January 17	potential too low
Day 6	Sunday, January 18	potential too low
Day 7	Monday, January 19	potential too low
Day 8	Tuesday, January 20	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130935 SPC AC 130935

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

DISCUSSION

A persistent eastern U.S large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to remain in place through the Day 4 to 8 period. As a result, northwesterly mid-level flow is forecast over much of the continental U.S. In response, multiple cold air intrusions are expected to take place across the central and eastern U.S. This will keep a relatively dry and cold airmass over much of the nation through early next week. For this reason, conditions will be unfavorable for thunderstorms in most areas, and a severe threat is not forecast in the Day 4 to 8 period.

..Broyles.. 01/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, January 13: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Wednesday, January 14: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Thursday, January 15: ANY SEVERE: low
Friday, January 16: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, January 17: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, January 18: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, January 19: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, January 20: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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