Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, November 4
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado will be possible across parts of the Southeast into the southern Appalachians.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 041257
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 AM CST Wed Nov 04 2026
Valid 041300Z - 051200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado will be possible across parts of the Southeast into the southern Appalachians.
Synopsis
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a mature cyclone centered over the western MN/IA border vicinity. A shortwave trough is moving over the Ozarks within the base of this cyclone. This shortwave is forecast to pivot quickly northeastward then northward through the OH Valley and Upper Great Lakes. Another, lower amplitude shortwave trough is currently progressing eastward through the Lower MS Valley, with continued eastward/east-northeastward progress anticipated today.
Recent surface analysis places the surface low associated with the Upper Midwest cyclone over far northwest WI, with a cold front arcing southeastward into far northeast IL then southward to another low over far eastern LA. A moist airmass precedes this cold front, with mid 60s dewpoints extending through western KY and low 60s dewpoints as far north as eastern WI. Thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of this front as it moves eastward, with the highest thunderstorm coverage from central/eastern KY across middle/eastern TN into northern AL and GA.
Northern AL/Middle TN into the southern Appalachians
Showers and isolated thunderstorms are currently ongoing within the moist and broadly confluence warm sector from MS/AL northward into IL/OH. Showers and thunderstorms will likely continue within this region of confluent while also developing along the front. Buoyancy will be tempered by widespread cloud cover and poor lapse rates, but ample low-level moisture will still support MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Moderate vertical shear will be in place as well, with much of this shear confined below 700 mb.
Given the moderate to strong low-level shear, this modified tropical airmass appears supportive of a low-probability tornado risk with thunderstorms along the cold front and within the prefrontal confluence zone. Primary limiting factor will be the confined updraft duration and strength resulting from poor lapse rates and associated low buoyancy. Even with this limiting factor, a few storms could briefly achieve the depth and duration need to produce a brief tornado, particularly from northeast AL across northern GA where stronger southeasterly surface wind are possible. A few convectively aided damaging gusts could occur across the region as well.
..Mosier/Moore.. 11/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Thursday, November 5
Outlook Summary
Severe storms are unlikely on Thursday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 040628
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CST Wed Nov 04 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe storms are unlikely on Thursday.
Synopsis
A broad zone of moderate southwest winds aloft will extend from TX across the OH/TN Valleys and into the Northeast on Thursday with the primary speed max aloft moving toward the Lower Great Lakes by evening. The surface low will translate into western Quebec, with weak surface winds over much of the eastern states. However, dewpoints in the 60s F will extend as far north as southern New England by Friday morning. Elevated thunderstorm chances will increase overnight from NC into NJ as the upper trough nears and surface pressures fall into early Friday morning.
Elsewhere, a southern vorticity max will move across OK near the tail end of the larger-scale eastern trough. Strong cooling aloft will support elevated instability, with a few thunderstorms during the day. Late-night elevated thunderstorms may also occur over Deep South TX, as a cold front undercuts a moist air mass.
..Jewell.. 11/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Friday, November 6
Outlook Summary
A few strong storms are possible Friday over parts of eastern North Carolina and Virginia.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 040825
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CST Wed Nov 04 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
A few strong storms are possible Friday over parts of eastern North Carolina and Virginia.
Discussion
On Friday, the southern lobe of the eastern trough will move rapidly east from the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and into the Mid Atlantic by afternoon, with strong cooling aloft and increasing midlevel winds over 60 kt. A surface trough will deepen a bit during the day over the eastern Carolinas and Virginia, where mid 60s F dewpoints will be in place.
Early day rain and thunderstorms will be possible, which may mitigate destabilization somewhat. However, at least some diurnal surface heating may occur upstream/south, with gradual warming and further destabilization during the day via advection. Increasing large-scale lift may support renewed development along the effective outflow/baroclinic zone. Given increasing mean wind fields aloft and favorable deep-layer shear, at least isolated damaging gusts may occur.
Given the ongoing early day rain and some model discrepancy as to effective frontal position, will defer possible low severe probabilities to later updates.
..Jewell.. 11/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Saturday, November 7
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, November 7 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, November 8 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, November 9 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, November 10 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, November 11 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040918 SPC AC 040918
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 AM CST Wed Nov 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
For the Sat/D4 through Wed/D8 period, thunderstorm potential will be minimal across the U.S. due to a lack of instability. An upper trough will exit the eastern U.S. on Sat/D4, with high pressure over most of the CONUS. Multiple shortwave troughs are forecast to dig southeastward across eastern Canada and into the northeastern states, maintaining a cool and stable pattern. Any appreciable instability will remain offshore, with little if any severe potential expected.
..Jewell.. 11/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, November 8
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, November 7 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, November 8 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, November 9 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, November 10 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, November 11 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040918 SPC AC 040918
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 AM CST Wed Nov 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
For the Sat/D4 through Wed/D8 period, thunderstorm potential will be minimal across the U.S. due to a lack of instability. An upper trough will exit the eastern U.S. on Sat/D4, with high pressure over most of the CONUS. Multiple shortwave troughs are forecast to dig southeastward across eastern Canada and into the northeastern states, maintaining a cool and stable pattern. Any appreciable instability will remain offshore, with little if any severe potential expected.
..Jewell.. 11/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, November 9
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, November 7 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, November 8 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, November 9 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, November 10 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, November 11 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040918 SPC AC 040918
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 AM CST Wed Nov 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
For the Sat/D4 through Wed/D8 period, thunderstorm potential will be minimal across the U.S. due to a lack of instability. An upper trough will exit the eastern U.S. on Sat/D4, with high pressure over most of the CONUS. Multiple shortwave troughs are forecast to dig southeastward across eastern Canada and into the northeastern states, maintaining a cool and stable pattern. Any appreciable instability will remain offshore, with little if any severe potential expected.
..Jewell.. 11/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, November 10
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, November 7 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, November 8 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, November 9 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, November 10 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, November 11 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040918 SPC AC 040918
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 AM CST Wed Nov 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
For the Sat/D4 through Wed/D8 period, thunderstorm potential will be minimal across the U.S. due to a lack of instability. An upper trough will exit the eastern U.S. on Sat/D4, with high pressure over most of the CONUS. Multiple shortwave troughs are forecast to dig southeastward across eastern Canada and into the northeastern states, maintaining a cool and stable pattern. Any appreciable instability will remain offshore, with little if any severe potential expected.
..Jewell.. 11/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, November 11
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, November 7 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, November 8 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, November 9 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, November 10 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, November 11 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040918 SPC AC 040918
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 AM CST Wed Nov 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
For the Sat/D4 through Wed/D8 period, thunderstorm potential will be minimal across the U.S. due to a lack of instability. An upper trough will exit the eastern U.S. on Sat/D4, with high pressure over most of the CONUS. Multiple shortwave troughs are forecast to dig southeastward across eastern Canada and into the northeastern states, maintaining a cool and stable pattern. Any appreciable instability will remain offshore, with little if any severe potential expected.
..Jewell.. 11/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, November 4
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Thursday, November 5
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Friday, November 6
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Saturday, November 7
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, November 8
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, November 9
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, November 10
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, November 11
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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