Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, February 25
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 260045
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026
Valid 260100Z - 261200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight.
01z Update
Midlevel short-wave trough is digging southeast across the central Plains early this evening. 500mb speed max is forecast to translate across KS into western TN by sunrise, and this feature may aid a weak frontal wave and weak low-level warm advection along/north of the synoptic boundary. Forecast soundings continue to depict weak MUCAPE, but likely adequate for lightning discharge within stronger elevated convection. Risk of severe is negligible the rest of tonight.
..Darrow.. 02/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Thursday, February 26
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Southeast on Thursday, but severe weather is not expected.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 251727
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Southeast on Thursday, but severe weather is not expected.
Discussion
An expansive area of northwest flow aloft will extend from the Rockies to the East Coast on Thursday. High Pressure will be in place from the central Plains across the OH Valley and into the Northeast, with a cold front slowly pushing south into the Gulf Coast states. A leading wave will affect the Appalachians into the Northeast during the day, with a secondary wave moving into the southern Plains late.
During the afternoon, upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints will exist ahead of this front, from eastern TX across LA, MS, AL, and into GA. Daytime heating will bring temperatures into the upper 60s to lower 70s, resulting in maximum CAPE values into the 500-750 J/kg range.
While mid and high level winds will be strong with 50+ kt effective shear, winds in the low levels and convergence will be weak. Widespread rain will be likely from northern AL and GA into the Carolinas north of the boundary where a few hundred J/kg elevated CAPE will be present. Small/non-severe hail cannot be ruled out with this activity. Given conditionally favorable shear, cooler temperatures aloft and influence of the upper wave, large hail could occur should stronger-than-forecast instability develop near/north of the boundary.
To the south, isolated widely-scattered thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon across MS/AL/GA near the front and perhaps across the warm sector at peak heating. Forecast soundings indicate areas of subsidence aloft as winds veer to westerly behind the lead wave. Given these factors, these storms are expected to be non-severe.
..Jewell.. 02/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Friday, February 27
Outlook Summary
General thunderstorms are likely over parts of the Southeast on Friday. Severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 251920
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
General thunderstorms are likely over parts of the Southeast on Friday. Severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast.
Synopsis
A shortwave trough will move from the southern Plains toward the northern Gulf of America on Friday, with cooling aloft overspreading much of the Southeast. At the surface, a prominent ridge will extend from the Mid Atlantic across the TN and into the lower MS Valley, with a cold front roughly from SC into LA.
Near this front, rain and a few thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing from southern LA/MS/AL/GA into northern FL Friday morning. While clouds and precipitation may hamper heating, at least a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE appears likely given lower 60s F dewpoints and a plume of low-level theta-e extending out of the northern Gulf and across the FL Panhandle/southern AL/southern GA.
Given questionable destabilization and relatively weak boundary layer winds, potential for isolated strong/severe storms are not currently depicted.
..Jewell.. 02/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Saturday, February 28
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, February 28 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, March 1 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, March 2 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, March 3 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, March 4 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 251039 SPC AC 251039
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0439 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
Ensemble guidance continues to support a large-scale change to the overall upper-air pattern during this forecast period. The western ridge/eastern trough should flip, evolving toward a western trough and eastern ridge. As this happens, southwest mid-level flow into the central US will support a gradual warming/moistening of the Plains' low-level environment. Details of how far north and the overall quality of the moisture return remain to be seen.
This moisture return will begin in earnest on Saturday (Day 4) as southerly winds take hold across the central US. However, a cold front will suppress this low-level moisture south into central Texas on Sunday and Monday (Days 5 and 6), with some guidance members suggesting a reinforcing frontal push on Tuesday.
By the middle of next week (Days 7 and 8), the frontal boundary should weaken across Texas and redevelop northward. This will allow low-level moisture to begin advancing northward into the Central Plains. However the speed and strength of this low-level moisture advection varies greatly between different ensembles and even within the membership of specific ensembles. As such, the overall potential for organized severe weather on any day looks to be too low for unconditional probabilities. However, pattern recognition suggests thunderstorm (and severe) potential should increase across portions of the central US just beyond this forecast period.
..Marsh.. 02/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, March 1
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, February 28 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, March 1 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, March 2 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, March 3 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, March 4 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 251039 SPC AC 251039
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0439 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
Ensemble guidance continues to support a large-scale change to the overall upper-air pattern during this forecast period. The western ridge/eastern trough should flip, evolving toward a western trough and eastern ridge. As this happens, southwest mid-level flow into the central US will support a gradual warming/moistening of the Plains' low-level environment. Details of how far north and the overall quality of the moisture return remain to be seen.
This moisture return will begin in earnest on Saturday (Day 4) as southerly winds take hold across the central US. However, a cold front will suppress this low-level moisture south into central Texas on Sunday and Monday (Days 5 and 6), with some guidance members suggesting a reinforcing frontal push on Tuesday.
By the middle of next week (Days 7 and 8), the frontal boundary should weaken across Texas and redevelop northward. This will allow low-level moisture to begin advancing northward into the Central Plains. However the speed and strength of this low-level moisture advection varies greatly between different ensembles and even within the membership of specific ensembles. As such, the overall potential for organized severe weather on any day looks to be too low for unconditional probabilities. However, pattern recognition suggests thunderstorm (and severe) potential should increase across portions of the central US just beyond this forecast period.
..Marsh.. 02/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, March 2
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, February 28 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, March 1 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, March 2 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, March 3 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, March 4 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 251039 SPC AC 251039
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0439 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
Ensemble guidance continues to support a large-scale change to the overall upper-air pattern during this forecast period. The western ridge/eastern trough should flip, evolving toward a western trough and eastern ridge. As this happens, southwest mid-level flow into the central US will support a gradual warming/moistening of the Plains' low-level environment. Details of how far north and the overall quality of the moisture return remain to be seen.
This moisture return will begin in earnest on Saturday (Day 4) as southerly winds take hold across the central US. However, a cold front will suppress this low-level moisture south into central Texas on Sunday and Monday (Days 5 and 6), with some guidance members suggesting a reinforcing frontal push on Tuesday.
By the middle of next week (Days 7 and 8), the frontal boundary should weaken across Texas and redevelop northward. This will allow low-level moisture to begin advancing northward into the Central Plains. However the speed and strength of this low-level moisture advection varies greatly between different ensembles and even within the membership of specific ensembles. As such, the overall potential for organized severe weather on any day looks to be too low for unconditional probabilities. However, pattern recognition suggests thunderstorm (and severe) potential should increase across portions of the central US just beyond this forecast period.
..Marsh.. 02/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, March 3
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, February 28 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, March 1 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, March 2 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, March 3 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, March 4 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 251039 SPC AC 251039
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0439 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
Ensemble guidance continues to support a large-scale change to the overall upper-air pattern during this forecast period. The western ridge/eastern trough should flip, evolving toward a western trough and eastern ridge. As this happens, southwest mid-level flow into the central US will support a gradual warming/moistening of the Plains' low-level environment. Details of how far north and the overall quality of the moisture return remain to be seen.
This moisture return will begin in earnest on Saturday (Day 4) as southerly winds take hold across the central US. However, a cold front will suppress this low-level moisture south into central Texas on Sunday and Monday (Days 5 and 6), with some guidance members suggesting a reinforcing frontal push on Tuesday.
By the middle of next week (Days 7 and 8), the frontal boundary should weaken across Texas and redevelop northward. This will allow low-level moisture to begin advancing northward into the Central Plains. However the speed and strength of this low-level moisture advection varies greatly between different ensembles and even within the membership of specific ensembles. As such, the overall potential for organized severe weather on any day looks to be too low for unconditional probabilities. However, pattern recognition suggests thunderstorm (and severe) potential should increase across portions of the central US just beyond this forecast period.
..Marsh.. 02/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, March 4
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, February 28 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, March 1 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, March 2 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, March 3 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, March 4 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 251039 SPC AC 251039
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0439 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
Ensemble guidance continues to support a large-scale change to the overall upper-air pattern during this forecast period. The western ridge/eastern trough should flip, evolving toward a western trough and eastern ridge. As this happens, southwest mid-level flow into the central US will support a gradual warming/moistening of the Plains' low-level environment. Details of how far north and the overall quality of the moisture return remain to be seen.
This moisture return will begin in earnest on Saturday (Day 4) as southerly winds take hold across the central US. However, a cold front will suppress this low-level moisture south into central Texas on Sunday and Monday (Days 5 and 6), with some guidance members suggesting a reinforcing frontal push on Tuesday.
By the middle of next week (Days 7 and 8), the frontal boundary should weaken across Texas and redevelop northward. This will allow low-level moisture to begin advancing northward into the Central Plains. However the speed and strength of this low-level moisture advection varies greatly between different ensembles and even within the membership of specific ensembles. As such, the overall potential for organized severe weather on any day looks to be too low for unconditional probabilities. However, pattern recognition suggests thunderstorm (and severe) potential should increase across portions of the central US just beyond this forecast period.
..Marsh.. 02/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, February 25
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Thursday, February 26
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Friday, February 27
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Saturday, February 28
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, March 1
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, March 2
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, March 3
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, March 4
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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