Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, December 11
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. on Thursday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 110553
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. on Thursday.
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough will move eastward from the eastern U.S. into the western Atlantic today, as northwest flow remains over most of the nation. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will be located from parts of the Great Plains to the southern and central Appalachians. The relatively cool and dry airmass will be unfavorable for thunderstorm development across the U.S. through tonight.
..Broyles/Thornton.. 12/11/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Friday, December 12
Outlook Summary
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S. Friday through Friday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 110529
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S. Friday through Friday night.
Discussion
Downstream of a blocking mid-level high, maintaining near/north of the Aleutians, it still appears that the evolving flow may include a shortwave ridge building inland across British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest during this period. As this occurs, digging short wave troughs farther downstream may reinforce larger-scale mid-level troughing across parts of the northern Great Plains through Great Lakes vicinity. However, in general, models indicate that the persistent cyclonic regime to the east of the Rockies may gradually lose amplitude, with the stronger mid-level height gradient tending to recede northward through the middle Mississippi/Ohio Valleys and Mid Atlantic. In lower levels, a leading surge of colder air to the lee of the Rockies may stall and weaken across the Mid South through south central Great Plains vicinity by late Friday night.
In lower latitudes, mid-level heights may rise on the northwestern periphery of Atlantic subtropical ridging, as far north as southern Florida, downstream of weak mid/upper trough progressing across the northern Mexican Plateau through northwestern Gulf Basin. Beneath this regime, it appears that gradual Gulf boundary-layer moistening will continue. In the vicinity of a weak surface trough forecast to develop near Texas coastal areas by late Friday night, it is possible that destabilization and forcing for ascent may become conducive to scattered deepening convective development prior to 12Z Saturday.
Texas coastal areas
Latest guidance, including available forecast soundings from various models, still suggests that the environment may become increasing conducive to convection capable of producing lightning near lower through middle coastal areas late Friday night. Highest probabilities for the initiation of at least a couple of weak thunderstorms may be around 12Z Saturday, just east of the coastal waters. At least for now, thunderstorm probabilities will be maintained at less than 10 percent, but, depending on trends in later model runs, it is possible than minimum threshold thunderstorm probabilities may still need to be reintroduced.
..Kerr.. 12/11/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Saturday, December 13
Outlook Summary
Scattered, mostly weak, thunderstorm activity is possible across the Gulf Coast states Saturday into Saturday night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 110732
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Scattered, mostly weak, thunderstorm activity is possible across the Gulf Coast states Saturday into Saturday night.
Discussion
Models indicate that the blocking high will generally maintain strength just to the north of Aleutians through this period. The evolution of a lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone to its east, across the northeastern Pacific, is more unclear, but guidance indicates that a downstream ridge will broaden eastward, inland of the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast through the southern Canadian Prairies and northern U.S. Great Plains. Farther east, it still appears that a vigorous digging short wave trough will once again contribute to larger-scale mid-level trough amplification across the Upper Midwest into Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Saturday through Saturday night.
An increasingly confluent mid-level regime, in the wake of the amplifying trough, is forecast to support the southeastward development of an expanding cold surface ridge to the east of the Rockies, across much of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley through western slopes of the Appalachians. By late Saturday night, a strengthening low-level baroclinic zone, near the leading edge of the colder air, is forecast to approach southern Mid Atlantic through Gulf coastal areas.
In lower latitudes, beneath a weak branch of westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, a remnant preceding surface frontal zone may shift northward across the Florida Keys and southern peninsula by 12Z Sunday, downstream of broad mid-level troughing overspreading the Gulf Basin.
Gulf Coast states
Although weak lapse rates and rather weak lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields seem likely to minimize the risk for severe weather, a substantive increase in boundary-layer moisture, in the presence of increasing large-scale forcing for ascent, may support increasing scattered thunderstorm development along the front, near the Florida Keys and southern peninsula, by late Saturday night.
Elsewhere, guidance suggests that scattered thunderstorm development is possible near/offshore of lower through middle Texas coastal areas, at least early Saturday. Farther northeast, a narrow plume of elevated moisture return, off the modifying northwestern Gulf boundary layer, might contribute to weak destabilization sufficient for convection capable of producing lightning, mainly just ahead of the front as it approaches the Gulf coast late Saturday night.
..Kerr.. 12/11/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Sunday, December 14
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, December 13 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Sunday, December 14 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, December 15 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, December 16 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, December 17 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100914 SPC AC 100914
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Based on the latest medium-range model output, a vigorous digging short wave trough is likely to contribute to substantive mid-level trough amplification once again across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, into and across the Mid Atlantic Seaboard this coming weekend. It appears that this may provide support for significant cyclogenesis along a frontal zone across the northwestern Atlantic, while a strongly confluent mid-level regime in its wake supports the southeastward development of a large cold surface ridge across most areas east of the Rockies, including the offshore Atlantic and Gulf Basin by early next week.
Thereafter, into the middle of next week, mid-level flow may trend a bit more zonal, at least across the northern mid-latitudes of North America. However, there is notable spread evident within and among the various model output concerning short waves emerging from the upstream blocking pattern, before progressing inland within splitting branches of westerlies across and east of the Rockies. After an initial suppression of Gulf boundary-layer moistening early next week, a developing southerly return flow with moistening that may lead to increasing convective potential appears possible across and northeast of the northwestern Gulf coast/lower Mississippi Valley vicinity. The extent to which this could include a risk for severe storms remains unclear, but currently still appears generally low through at least this period.
..Kerr.. 12/10/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, December 15
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, December 13 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Sunday, December 14 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, December 15 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, December 16 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, December 17 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100914 SPC AC 100914
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Based on the latest medium-range model output, a vigorous digging short wave trough is likely to contribute to substantive mid-level trough amplification once again across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, into and across the Mid Atlantic Seaboard this coming weekend. It appears that this may provide support for significant cyclogenesis along a frontal zone across the northwestern Atlantic, while a strongly confluent mid-level regime in its wake supports the southeastward development of a large cold surface ridge across most areas east of the Rockies, including the offshore Atlantic and Gulf Basin by early next week.
Thereafter, into the middle of next week, mid-level flow may trend a bit more zonal, at least across the northern mid-latitudes of North America. However, there is notable spread evident within and among the various model output concerning short waves emerging from the upstream blocking pattern, before progressing inland within splitting branches of westerlies across and east of the Rockies. After an initial suppression of Gulf boundary-layer moistening early next week, a developing southerly return flow with moistening that may lead to increasing convective potential appears possible across and northeast of the northwestern Gulf coast/lower Mississippi Valley vicinity. The extent to which this could include a risk for severe storms remains unclear, but currently still appears generally low through at least this period.
..Kerr.. 12/10/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, December 16
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, December 13 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Sunday, December 14 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, December 15 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, December 16 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, December 17 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100914 SPC AC 100914
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Based on the latest medium-range model output, a vigorous digging short wave trough is likely to contribute to substantive mid-level trough amplification once again across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, into and across the Mid Atlantic Seaboard this coming weekend. It appears that this may provide support for significant cyclogenesis along a frontal zone across the northwestern Atlantic, while a strongly confluent mid-level regime in its wake supports the southeastward development of a large cold surface ridge across most areas east of the Rockies, including the offshore Atlantic and Gulf Basin by early next week.
Thereafter, into the middle of next week, mid-level flow may trend a bit more zonal, at least across the northern mid-latitudes of North America. However, there is notable spread evident within and among the various model output concerning short waves emerging from the upstream blocking pattern, before progressing inland within splitting branches of westerlies across and east of the Rockies. After an initial suppression of Gulf boundary-layer moistening early next week, a developing southerly return flow with moistening that may lead to increasing convective potential appears possible across and northeast of the northwestern Gulf coast/lower Mississippi Valley vicinity. The extent to which this could include a risk for severe storms remains unclear, but currently still appears generally low through at least this period.
..Kerr.. 12/10/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, December 17
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, December 13 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Sunday, December 14 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, December 15 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, December 16 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, December 17 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100914 SPC AC 100914
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Based on the latest medium-range model output, a vigorous digging short wave trough is likely to contribute to substantive mid-level trough amplification once again across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, into and across the Mid Atlantic Seaboard this coming weekend. It appears that this may provide support for significant cyclogenesis along a frontal zone across the northwestern Atlantic, while a strongly confluent mid-level regime in its wake supports the southeastward development of a large cold surface ridge across most areas east of the Rockies, including the offshore Atlantic and Gulf Basin by early next week.
Thereafter, into the middle of next week, mid-level flow may trend a bit more zonal, at least across the northern mid-latitudes of North America. However, there is notable spread evident within and among the various model output concerning short waves emerging from the upstream blocking pattern, before progressing inland within splitting branches of westerlies across and east of the Rockies. After an initial suppression of Gulf boundary-layer moistening early next week, a developing southerly return flow with moistening that may lead to increasing convective potential appears possible across and northeast of the northwestern Gulf coast/lower Mississippi Valley vicinity. The extent to which this could include a risk for severe storms remains unclear, but currently still appears generally low through at least this period.
..Kerr.. 12/10/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, December 11
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Friday, December 12
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Saturday, December 13
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Sunday, December 14
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, December 15
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, December 16
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, December 17
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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