Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Wednesday, July 15

Outlook Summary

There is a conditional risk for severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging winds across parts of the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon and evening. Isolated damaging winds appear possible for portions of northern New England, the northern Rockies/High Plains, Pacific Northwest, and Arizona. A brief tornado or two may also occur across parts of south-central Texas.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 151946

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Valid 152000Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC…NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND…NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS…PACIFIC NORTHWEST…ARIZONA…AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS

### SUMMARY

There is a conditional risk for severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging winds across parts of the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon and evening. Isolated damaging winds appear possible for portions of northern New England, the northern Rockies/High Plains, Pacific Northwest, and Arizona. A brief tornado or two may also occur across parts of south-central Texas.

20z Update

The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made, predominately across southern Montana where guidance has trended towards a slightly higher coverage of thunderstorms within an environment favorable for strong/severe winds. These trends are supported by recent MRMS mosaics which depict convection developing along the WY/MT border (see MCD #1624 for additional information).

Texas

Although thunderstorm coverage has been decreasing since late morning across portions of central/southern TX, recent VWP observations continue to show a strongly sheared environment across the greater San Antonio area with 0-1 km SRH on the order of 100-200 m2/s2. Additionally, clearing skies and warming temperatures are contributing to destabilization across parts of the region, and lift associated with a departing mid-level wave continues to influence the region. Consequently, some potential remains for organized convection through late afternoon. Diminishing wind fields through the evening should gradually diminish the severe threat tonight.

See MCD #1625 and the previous discussion below for additional forecast details.

..Moore.. 07/15/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026/

Northern Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast

Recent surface analysis places a cold front from northern ME southwestward into northern NY before arcing westward across southeastern Ontario and west-northwestward across northern MI and far northern WI into central MN. Eastern portion of this front is expected to push southeastward through the Northeast today, moving ahead of a low-amplitude and progressive shortwave trough currently moving through eastern Ontario into far southern Quebec. Large-scale ascent associated with this wave will spread across the region, but warm temperatures aloft will likely limit thunderstorm coverage across much of the region. A band of low-topped showers and isolated/brief thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon across northern New England, where forcing for ascent will be the strongest. Overall buoyancy will be modest, but steepening low-level lapse rates, a unidirectional/westerly wind profile with height through mid levels, and 30-40 kt of flow around 1-2 km AGL will support the potential for locally damaging wind gusts.

Farther south in the northern Mid-Atlantic, warm and moist conditions will persist south of the front. However, warm mid-level temperatures may prevent the airmass from fully destabilizing, with lingering convective inhibition likely. Given this inhibition and displacement farther south of the stronger forcing for ascent, robust convective development remains highly uncertain. Additionally, residual smoke could also limit heating, keeping convective inhibition in place. That being said, strong deep-layer westerly flow and steep mid-level lapse rates would support strong outflow and perhaps even isolated hail with any storms that can develop and mature.

Northern Wyoming into Southern Montana

Recent satellite imagery shows a weak vorticity maximum over eastern ID. This vorticity max is forecast move northeastward today across the northern Rockies and into the adjacent northern High Plains. Diurnal heating across the higher terrain coupled with the glancing influence of this subtle disturbance should foster the development of scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Weak to moderate instability is forecast, with a relatively deep and well-mixed boundary layer across lower elevations. Scattered thunderstorm coverage could result in some upscale growth into a loosely organized cluster with cold pool organization, and a risk for isolated severe wind gusts into the evening. However, the overall severe threat should be tempered by modest deep-layer shear and limited storm duration.

Pacific Northwest

Multiple rounds of isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon along and east of the Cascades from central OR into southern WA. The first round during the afternoon will be aided by orographic influences and a weak shortwave trough preceding a closed upper low off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. High cloud bases and a deeply mixed boundary layer will support the potential for a few strong gusts with this activity. Another round of storms is possible later this evening/overnight as another weak shortwave trough rounds the upper low as the low itself also drifts closer to the coast. Very dry low to mid-levels will persist throughout the evening/overnight, with the potential for isolated strong gusts remaining possible.

South-Central Texas

Weak mid-level low over south-central TX will only drift slightly westward today, remaining largely in place within the very moist airmass over the region. Recent EWX VAD profiles show about 30 kt of southerly flow between 1-3 km along the eastern periphery of this low. Resulting hodographs show just enough low-level curvature to support brief tornadoes given the tropical airmass in place.

Arizona

Weak east-northeasterly mid-level flow is forecast today across AZ, which is on the southern periphery of upper ridging extending across much of the central CONUS. Daytime heating of a seasonably moist low-level airmass across southern/central AZ will yield modest instability by mid afternoon. Initial development is anticipated over the Mogollon Rim and higher terrain of southeast AZ, before subsequently spreading westward into the lower deserts. A deeply mixed boundary layer across the lower elevations could support isolated strong to severe gusts.

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

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Outlook for Thursday, July 16

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of western Montana, mainly Thursday afternoon and evening. Locally damaging winds may also occur across parts of northern New England.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 151731

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WESTERN MONTANA

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of western Montana, mainly Thursday afternoon and evening. Locally damaging winds may also occur across parts of northern New England.

Parts of western/central MT…ID…northwest WY…eastern OR/WA

A seasonably strong mid/upper-level cyclone offshore of the Pacific Northwest is forecast to move toward Vancouver Island through the period. The glancing influence of this feature, combined with monsoonal moisture and diurnal heating across the higher terrain, will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms by afternoon across parts of ID/MT and adjacent portions of eastern OR/WA.

At this time, the greatest severe potential appears to be across parts of western MT, where moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of near/above 1000 J/kg) and veering wind profiles (with 30+ kt of effective shear despite modest midlevel flow) will support development of organized multicells and perhaps a couple of supercells, with an attendant threat of hail and localized severe gusts. 15% hail probabilities have been added across the area to account for this potential.

Instability is expected to be somewhat weaker across parts of ID and eastern OR/WA, but favorable deep-layer shear may result in development of isolated strong to severe storms. Some clustering may eventually result in pockets of locally increased severe-wind potential, especially where stronger pre-storm heating and steepening of low-level lapse rates occurs.

Parts of northern New England

A vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across northern New England Thursday afternoon. Vertically integrated smoke forecasts from the HRRR suggest that the densest smoke will largely remain south of Maine, which would allow for diurnal steepening of low-level lapse rates.

With limited low-level moisture, buoyancy will likely remain weak to negligible for much of the day. However, strongly forced low-topped convection may develop in association with the approaching shortwave trough and attendant cold front, and move southeastward through the afternoon. Strong flow (50+ kt at 700 mb) and steep low-level lapse rates will support potential for strong/damaging gusts, potentially augmented by convective downdrafts. 5% wind probabilities have been included to account for this potential.

Mid-Atlantic vicinity

Similar to D1/Wednesday, storm potential is uncertain and potentially limited Thursday across parts of the Mid-Atlantic, despite a relatively favorable environment in the vicinity of a cold front. Weak large-scale ascent and the potential impact of smoke on diurnal heating/destabilization will likely limit storm coverage, with HREF calibrated thunder probabilities currently only 10-20%. Severe probabilities have been withheld due to uncertainty regarding storm development/coverage, but this area will continue to be monitored for any increasing signal of storm development within the conditionally favorable environment.

Arizona

Scattered thunderstorms are again expected across parts of Arizona on Thursday. Some storms will likely be accompanied by strong gusts, though organized severe potential appears limited, with only very light midlevel flow currently indicated by most guidance. Trends will be monitored for any increase in potential for organized clustering.

Southwest/south-central TX

Modestly enhanced low-level shear/SRH may persist into Thursday morning across southwest/south-central TX. However, most guidance suggests that convection will tend to weaken near/after 12Z. As a result, no tornado probabilities have been introduced, though a brief/weak tornado cannot be ruled out near the beginning of the forecast period.

..Dean.. 07/15/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Friday, July 17

Outlook Summary

Strong to potentially severe storms are possible on Friday across parts of western Montana and northern Idaho, and also across parts of the Upper Great Lakes region.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 151928

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WESTERN MT/NORTHERN ID…AND ALSO ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION

### SUMMARY

Strong to potentially severe storms are possible on Friday across parts of western Montana and northern Idaho, and also across parts of the Upper Great Lakes region.

Parts of ID/western MT

A relatively favorable thermodynamic environment is again expected to reside across parts of western MT and vicinity by Friday afternoon. Relatively steep lapse rates and sufficient moisture may result in MLCAPE increasing to near/above 1000 J/kg. A modest decrease in mid/upper-level flow is expected compared to D2/Thursday, as the region gradually becomes further removed from a mid/upper-level low moving across southwestern British Columbia. However, effective shear of 25-35 kt may develop where low-level flow remains east-southeasterly. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon and continue into at least the early evening. The strongest cells/clusters will be capable of producing isolated hail and strong to severe gusts.

Parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes

Multiple low-amplitude midlevel vorticity maxima may move southeastward across parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes through early evening, before a stronger shortwave trough approaches the region by late Friday night. A frontal zone initially draped from northern IL/IN into northern MN will begin to shift northward as a warm front, while a cold front will move through parts of the Dakotas and northwest MN. Diurnal heating may be somewhat muted due to the effects of smoke, but increasing low-level moisture will support moderate destabilization. Moderate midlevel northwesterly flow will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization.

Details of storm development and evolution remain uncertain across this region, However, isolated surface-based development will be possible near the cold front and effective warm front during the afternoon/evening, and one or more elevated clusters may continue into Friday night. There is a sufficient signal for storm development within a relatively favorable environment for the addition of 5% severe probabilities, though some adjustment will likely be needed in subsequent updates.

Parts of the Southeast…southern Appalachians…Ohio Valley

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop Friday afternoon, within a moist, moderately unstable, and weakly capped environment. Localized downburst winds could occur within this environment, though deep-layer flow/shear appears too weak to support an organized severe threat.

..Dean.. 07/15/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Saturday, July 18

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150859 SPC AC 150859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

DISCUSSION

The mid-level pattern will continue to transition toward a western US ridge and eastern Canada trough during this forecast period. The strongest mid-level flow across the US will be in the region between the ridge and trough, namely the Upper Midwest into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.

Ensemble guidance suites continue to indicate several stronger mid-level short-wave troughs moving through the longwave trough across eastern North America. In particular, one such trough will move across the Great Lakes and Northeast on Saturday into Sunday, with a secondary wave moving across the same general area late Monday into early Wednesday. In between these main waves, smaller-scale vorticity/speed maxima are likely to traverse the region.

Prior cyclones moving across the region will have left behind a surface boundary arcing from the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic. As each of the previously mentioned waves approaches this boundary, the surface boundary will lift northward before being pushed farther southward in the wake of the departing wave. By the end of the forecast period, this boundary may push as far south as the Southeast US.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will be possible with each passing wave, with more isolated potential in between the main waves in association with any of the small/subtle vorticity/speed maxima moving through the flow. The best areas for thunderstorms look to be south of the better mid-level flow, which would tend to favor any severe potential being driven by the degree of low-level warming/steepening of the low-level lapse rates. At this time it appears that the timing of the midlevel waves may favor early day convection, especially across the Lower Great Lakes into the northern Mid-Atlantic area. This early day convection may temper afternoon heating and the overall organization/areal extent of any severe potential. Thus, confidence remains too low to introduce unconditional 15% severe weather probabilities at this time, despite the acknowledgment that some severe potential is likely during this time period.

..Marsh.. 07/15/2026

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Outlook for Sunday, July 19

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150859 SPC AC 150859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

DISCUSSION

The mid-level pattern will continue to transition toward a western US ridge and eastern Canada trough during this forecast period. The strongest mid-level flow across the US will be in the region between the ridge and trough, namely the Upper Midwest into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.

Ensemble guidance suites continue to indicate several stronger mid-level short-wave troughs moving through the longwave trough across eastern North America. In particular, one such trough will move across the Great Lakes and Northeast on Saturday into Sunday, with a secondary wave moving across the same general area late Monday into early Wednesday. In between these main waves, smaller-scale vorticity/speed maxima are likely to traverse the region.

Prior cyclones moving across the region will have left behind a surface boundary arcing from the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic. As each of the previously mentioned waves approaches this boundary, the surface boundary will lift northward before being pushed farther southward in the wake of the departing wave. By the end of the forecast period, this boundary may push as far south as the Southeast US.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will be possible with each passing wave, with more isolated potential in between the main waves in association with any of the small/subtle vorticity/speed maxima moving through the flow. The best areas for thunderstorms look to be south of the better mid-level flow, which would tend to favor any severe potential being driven by the degree of low-level warming/steepening of the low-level lapse rates. At this time it appears that the timing of the midlevel waves may favor early day convection, especially across the Lower Great Lakes into the northern Mid-Atlantic area. This early day convection may temper afternoon heating and the overall organization/areal extent of any severe potential. Thus, confidence remains too low to introduce unconditional 15% severe weather probabilities at this time, despite the acknowledgment that some severe potential is likely during this time period.

..Marsh.. 07/15/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, July 20

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150859 SPC AC 150859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

DISCUSSION

The mid-level pattern will continue to transition toward a western US ridge and eastern Canada trough during this forecast period. The strongest mid-level flow across the US will be in the region between the ridge and trough, namely the Upper Midwest into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.

Ensemble guidance suites continue to indicate several stronger mid-level short-wave troughs moving through the longwave trough across eastern North America. In particular, one such trough will move across the Great Lakes and Northeast on Saturday into Sunday, with a secondary wave moving across the same general area late Monday into early Wednesday. In between these main waves, smaller-scale vorticity/speed maxima are likely to traverse the region.

Prior cyclones moving across the region will have left behind a surface boundary arcing from the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic. As each of the previously mentioned waves approaches this boundary, the surface boundary will lift northward before being pushed farther southward in the wake of the departing wave. By the end of the forecast period, this boundary may push as far south as the Southeast US.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will be possible with each passing wave, with more isolated potential in between the main waves in association with any of the small/subtle vorticity/speed maxima moving through the flow. The best areas for thunderstorms look to be south of the better mid-level flow, which would tend to favor any severe potential being driven by the degree of low-level warming/steepening of the low-level lapse rates. At this time it appears that the timing of the midlevel waves may favor early day convection, especially across the Lower Great Lakes into the northern Mid-Atlantic area. This early day convection may temper afternoon heating and the overall organization/areal extent of any severe potential. Thus, confidence remains too low to introduce unconditional 15% severe weather probabilities at this time, despite the acknowledgment that some severe potential is likely during this time period.

..Marsh.. 07/15/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, July 21

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150859 SPC AC 150859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

DISCUSSION

The mid-level pattern will continue to transition toward a western US ridge and eastern Canada trough during this forecast period. The strongest mid-level flow across the US will be in the region between the ridge and trough, namely the Upper Midwest into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.

Ensemble guidance suites continue to indicate several stronger mid-level short-wave troughs moving through the longwave trough across eastern North America. In particular, one such trough will move across the Great Lakes and Northeast on Saturday into Sunday, with a secondary wave moving across the same general area late Monday into early Wednesday. In between these main waves, smaller-scale vorticity/speed maxima are likely to traverse the region.

Prior cyclones moving across the region will have left behind a surface boundary arcing from the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic. As each of the previously mentioned waves approaches this boundary, the surface boundary will lift northward before being pushed farther southward in the wake of the departing wave. By the end of the forecast period, this boundary may push as far south as the Southeast US.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will be possible with each passing wave, with more isolated potential in between the main waves in association with any of the small/subtle vorticity/speed maxima moving through the flow. The best areas for thunderstorms look to be south of the better mid-level flow, which would tend to favor any severe potential being driven by the degree of low-level warming/steepening of the low-level lapse rates. At this time it appears that the timing of the midlevel waves may favor early day convection, especially across the Lower Great Lakes into the northern Mid-Atlantic area. This early day convection may temper afternoon heating and the overall organization/areal extent of any severe potential. Thus, confidence remains too low to introduce unconditional 15% severe weather probabilities at this time, despite the acknowledgment that some severe potential is likely during this time period.

..Marsh.. 07/15/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, July 22

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150859 SPC AC 150859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

DISCUSSION

The mid-level pattern will continue to transition toward a western US ridge and eastern Canada trough during this forecast period. The strongest mid-level flow across the US will be in the region between the ridge and trough, namely the Upper Midwest into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.

Ensemble guidance suites continue to indicate several stronger mid-level short-wave troughs moving through the longwave trough across eastern North America. In particular, one such trough will move across the Great Lakes and Northeast on Saturday into Sunday, with a secondary wave moving across the same general area late Monday into early Wednesday. In between these main waves, smaller-scale vorticity/speed maxima are likely to traverse the region.

Prior cyclones moving across the region will have left behind a surface boundary arcing from the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic. As each of the previously mentioned waves approaches this boundary, the surface boundary will lift northward before being pushed farther southward in the wake of the departing wave. By the end of the forecast period, this boundary may push as far south as the Southeast US.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will be possible with each passing wave, with more isolated potential in between the main waves in association with any of the small/subtle vorticity/speed maxima moving through the flow. The best areas for thunderstorms look to be south of the better mid-level flow, which would tend to favor any severe potential being driven by the degree of low-level warming/steepening of the low-level lapse rates. At this time it appears that the timing of the midlevel waves may favor early day convection, especially across the Lower Great Lakes into the northern Mid-Atlantic area. This early day convection may temper afternoon heating and the overall organization/areal extent of any severe potential. Thus, confidence remains too low to introduce unconditional 15% severe weather probabilities at this time, despite the acknowledgment that some severe potential is likely during this time period.

..Marsh.. 07/15/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Wednesday, July 15

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 5%

Thursday, July 16

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 5%

Friday, July 17

ANY SEVERE: 5%

Saturday, July 18

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Sunday, July 19

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Monday, July 20

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Tuesday, July 21

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Wednesday, July 22

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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