Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, October 24
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe wind/hail and a tornado remain possible across portions of New Mexico and Far West Texas this evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 250107
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0807 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026
Valid 250100Z - 251200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS
CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT HEADLINE
SUMMARY
Isolated severe wind/hail and a tornado remain possible across portions of New Mexico and Far West Texas this evening.
01Z Update
Showers and thunderstorms continue across portions of the Southwest this evening. The most intense of these storms are located across portions of Far West Texas north into central New Mexico, where radar imagery continues to suggest large hail and severe gusts remains possible.
This evening’s 00 UTC sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows steep low-level lapse rates that weaken in the mid-levels, yielding MUCAPE around 900 J/kg. This instability has likely peaked for the evening and should weaken with time as the low-levels stabilize with the loss of diurnal heating. The ongoing congealing of thunderstorms will continue, which when combined with weakening instability will lead to an increasingly sporadic and less organized severe threat overnight. That said, sufficient instability and low-level shear exists that the threat for isolated large hail and severe thunderstorm wind gusts may still occur over the next couple of hours.
..Marsh.. 10/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Sunday, October 25
Outlook Summary
Isolated large hail and an isolated tornado will be possible Sunday afternoon/evening across southern/eastern New Mexico and far west Texas.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind low
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 241723
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS
### SUMMARY
Isolated large hail and an isolated tornado will be possible Sunday afternoon/evening across southern/eastern New Mexico and far west Texas.
Eastern NM to far west TX
In advance of height falls over the Pacific Northwest, a midlevel shortwave trough will eject northeastward over the Four Corners and begin to weaken slowly. Height falls with the ejecting trough will brush the northwest side of a persistent plume of low-midlevel moisture over NM, along a slow-moving, northeast-southwest oriented baroclinic zone. Ascent along the baroclinic zone, in conjunction with surface heating in occasional cloud breaks and local terrain circulations, will support scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon from far west TX into eastern NM.
Midlevel lapse rates will be steeper closer to the ejecting midlevel wave (northwest of the surface warm sector), and more limited within the warm sector as a result of relatively widespread convection the past few days. Still, boundary-layer dewpoints of 55-60 F will be enough for MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg despite muted surface heating with clouds. Vertical shear/hodograph length will be sufficient for some supercell potential. Isolated large hail (1-1.5 inches in diameter) will be the main threat, though low-level moisture and hodograph curvature suggest that an isolated tornado will also be possible.
Elsewhere
Isolated lightning flashes may occur early Sunday morning near the OR coast with low-topped convection as he midlevel cold core approaches. A few thunderstorms will also be possible across southeast FL in the moist northeasterly flow around the western periphery of a midlevel low over the Bahamas.
..Thompson.. 10/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Monday, October 26
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to be low on Monday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 241919
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to be low on Monday.
Synopsis
A midlevel low now over the lower CO River Valley will eject east-northeastward Monday across KS/NE to IA/MN. A few thunderstorms will be possible along an associated baroclinic zone from the central Plains into the southern High Plains. Relatively larger buoyancy/steeper lapse rates and marginal deep-layer vertical shear are expected in the vicinity of far west TX, though confidence is too low to add an outlook area for isolated large hail at this time. Otherwise, an upstream shortwave trough will progress inland from OR to ID, where isolated lightning flashes will be possible with low-topped convection closer to the OR coast. Farther inland, there is some potential for isolated flashes as far east as ID during the afternoon/evening, but the magnitude of buoyancy is questionable enough to preclude an outlook area. Isolated thunderstorms may also occur with returning moisture to the middle and lower TX coast, and along the southeast FL coast on the western periphery of a closed low over the Bahamas.
..Thompson.. 10/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Tuesday, October 27
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, October 30 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240750 SPC AC 240750
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low during the Day 4-8/Tue-Sat period. An upper shortwave trough will traverse the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Tuesday and Wednesday. As this occurs, a low-amplitude and weak mid/upper flow regime will overspread much of the central/southern Plains toward the eastern U.S. Strong surface high pressure over the East and prior cold frontal passages across parts of the Plains will result in only modest boundary layer moisture beneath the progressive mid-week upper shortwave trough.
Later in the period, upper troughing will deepen across the western U.S. Meanwhile, an amplifying upper ridge is expected across the East, resulting in broad southwesterly mid/upper flow across the Plains. Some modest moisture return could occur across the Plains within the southwesterly flow regime, but any deep moisture is forecast to remain confined across TX and the Gulf Coast. While periods of thunderstorms are possible late in the period across the Plains, overall severe potential is likely to remain limited due to a lack of focused large scale ascent and a modest thermodynamic environment.
..Leitman.. 10/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, October 28
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, October 30 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240750 SPC AC 240750
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low during the Day 4-8/Tue-Sat period. An upper shortwave trough will traverse the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Tuesday and Wednesday. As this occurs, a low-amplitude and weak mid/upper flow regime will overspread much of the central/southern Plains toward the eastern U.S. Strong surface high pressure over the East and prior cold frontal passages across parts of the Plains will result in only modest boundary layer moisture beneath the progressive mid-week upper shortwave trough.
Later in the period, upper troughing will deepen across the western U.S. Meanwhile, an amplifying upper ridge is expected across the East, resulting in broad southwesterly mid/upper flow across the Plains. Some modest moisture return could occur across the Plains within the southwesterly flow regime, but any deep moisture is forecast to remain confined across TX and the Gulf Coast. While periods of thunderstorms are possible late in the period across the Plains, overall severe potential is likely to remain limited due to a lack of focused large scale ascent and a modest thermodynamic environment.
..Leitman.. 10/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, October 29
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, October 30 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240750 SPC AC 240750
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low during the Day 4-8/Tue-Sat period. An upper shortwave trough will traverse the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Tuesday and Wednesday. As this occurs, a low-amplitude and weak mid/upper flow regime will overspread much of the central/southern Plains toward the eastern U.S. Strong surface high pressure over the East and prior cold frontal passages across parts of the Plains will result in only modest boundary layer moisture beneath the progressive mid-week upper shortwave trough.
Later in the period, upper troughing will deepen across the western U.S. Meanwhile, an amplifying upper ridge is expected across the East, resulting in broad southwesterly mid/upper flow across the Plains. Some modest moisture return could occur across the Plains within the southwesterly flow regime, but any deep moisture is forecast to remain confined across TX and the Gulf Coast. While periods of thunderstorms are possible late in the period across the Plains, overall severe potential is likely to remain limited due to a lack of focused large scale ascent and a modest thermodynamic environment.
..Leitman.. 10/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, October 30
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, October 30 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240750 SPC AC 240750
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low during the Day 4-8/Tue-Sat period. An upper shortwave trough will traverse the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Tuesday and Wednesday. As this occurs, a low-amplitude and weak mid/upper flow regime will overspread much of the central/southern Plains toward the eastern U.S. Strong surface high pressure over the East and prior cold frontal passages across parts of the Plains will result in only modest boundary layer moisture beneath the progressive mid-week upper shortwave trough.
Later in the period, upper troughing will deepen across the western U.S. Meanwhile, an amplifying upper ridge is expected across the East, resulting in broad southwesterly mid/upper flow across the Plains. Some modest moisture return could occur across the Plains within the southwesterly flow regime, but any deep moisture is forecast to remain confined across TX and the Gulf Coast. While periods of thunderstorms are possible late in the period across the Plains, overall severe potential is likely to remain limited due to a lack of focused large scale ascent and a modest thermodynamic environment.
..Leitman.. 10/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, October 31
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, October 30 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240750 SPC AC 240750
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low during the Day 4-8/Tue-Sat period. An upper shortwave trough will traverse the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Tuesday and Wednesday. As this occurs, a low-amplitude and weak mid/upper flow regime will overspread much of the central/southern Plains toward the eastern U.S. Strong surface high pressure over the East and prior cold frontal passages across parts of the Plains will result in only modest boundary layer moisture beneath the progressive mid-week upper shortwave trough.
Later in the period, upper troughing will deepen across the western U.S. Meanwhile, an amplifying upper ridge is expected across the East, resulting in broad southwesterly mid/upper flow across the Plains. Some modest moisture return could occur across the Plains within the southwesterly flow regime, but any deep moisture is forecast to remain confined across TX and the Gulf Coast. While periods of thunderstorms are possible late in the period across the Plains, overall severe potential is likely to remain limited due to a lack of focused large scale ascent and a modest thermodynamic environment.
..Leitman.. 10/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, October 24
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Sunday, October 25
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: low
- Monday, October 26
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Tuesday, October 27
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, October 28
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, October 29
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, October 30
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, October 31
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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