Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, October 28
Outlook Summary
A few severe thunderstorms may occur over parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin this afternoon and early evening. Isolated tornadoes, severe hail, and damaging winds will be possible.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 5%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 281957
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026
Valid 282000Z - 291200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
### SUMMARY
A few severe thunderstorms may occur over parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin this afternoon and early evening. Isolated tornadoes, severe hail, and damaging winds will be possible.
20z Update
A loosely organized cluster of cells has developed across portions of west-central Minnesota, the strongest of which produced some severe hail. These storms developed along the nose of low-level warm/moist air advection and will continue spreading northeast into portions of central and east-central Minnesota. See MCD #2413 for additional details.
Farther south, destabilization has occurred across portions of far southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa. Continued low-level warm/moist air advection and vertical mixing has allowed surface dew point temperatures to reach the low 60s F. This, along with filtered insolation is yielding MLCAPE values near 1000 J/kg. Broad ascent is now overspreading this region, associated with the right-entrance region of the upper-level jet and an approaching mid-level short-wave trough. Additionally, visible satellite shows areas of developing cumulus near the IA/MN border amid a pocket of reduced CIN per the latest surface mesoanalysis.
Given these conditions, storms are still expected to initiate and spread northeast, mainly into south-central Minnesota initially. However, considerable uncertainty exists in the ensuing convective mode(s). The aforementioned destabilization combined with ample low-level shear will support a tornado threat if a storm or two can acquire supercellular characteristics. As such, tornado/wind probabilities have been maintained. Any such storm will be accompanied by the threat for severe hail. Therefore, 15% hail probabilities have been added, covering the preexisting Level 2 of 5 (Slight) risk area.
Elsewhere, the balance of the previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details.
..Karstens/Thompson.. 10/28/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026/
Upper Midwest
Within a zone of enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow across the north-central CONUS, a shortwave trough over the northern High Plains late this morning will advance east-northeastward towards the Upper Midwest this afternoon/evening. A related surface low over the central High Plains will likewise develop northeastward to south-central MN by mid afternoon, with a trailing cold front extending southwestward across the northern/central Plains. Latest surface observations and observed 12Z soundings across the Upper Midwest/central Plains show limited low-level moisture present in the warm sector (surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s). This will tend to hinder the development of any more than weak instability (MLCAPE generally 500-1000 J/kg, perhaps locally stronger southward in IA ahead of the cold front), even as surface temperatures continue to warm into the 60s with filtered diurnal heating.
Strengthening low/mid-level winds through the afternoon will easily support favorable veering wind profiles with height and around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. This shear, coupled with potentially sufficient boundary-layer instability, may support a narrow zone of severe potential with thunderstorms that develop near/just east of the surface low across southern/eastern MN into northwest WI this afternoon. Even with neutral lapse rates/saturated low-level profiles depicted across this region per recent RAP forecast soundings, the presence of elongated/curved low-level hodographs may still support some risk for a couple of tornadoes with any supercells that can become established and remain surface based. Otherwise, isolated severe hail and damaging winds also appear possible as convection spreads quickly northeastward through the late afternoon/early evening before weakening with the loss of daytime heating. Some of this activity may become slightly elevated, but it could still pose some hail/gusty wind threat.
The potential for robust thunderstorm development farther south into IA and eastern NE along/ahead of the cold front remains uncertain, as large-scale ascent will be weaker with southward extent across this area. If convection can initiate and persist, then occasional hail could occur with the strongest cores. Have maintained the Marginal Risk across this region for this rather conditional possibility.
Far West Texas/Southeast New Mexico
A strong thunderstorm or two appears possible again this afternoon along/east of the Guadalupe Mountains of southeast NM and the Davis Mountains in far west TX. Forcing for ascent will remain weak, and overall thunderstorm coverage should remain rather isolated.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Thursday, October 29
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 281720
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.
Synopsis
Some suppression of upper-level ridging can be expected across the southern Plains as a shortwave trough moves out of the Southwest/northern Mexico. Within the northern Rockies, the upper-level ridge will amplify ahead of a Northwest upper trough. Modest mid-level height rises will also extend into the central Plains. A cold front will progress through the lower Great Lakes region and parts of the Ohio Valley. Southerly flow at low levels will persist in the southern/central Plains. A modest warm front may make northward progress within the lower Missouri Valley region late Thursday into Friday morning.
Convection is likely within the Southwest as the shortwave trough evolves and moves northeastward. Storms will increase in coverage northeastward as low-level warm advection develops during the evening/overnight. Weak lapse rates, modest buoyancy, and weak shear should minimize severe potential with this activity. Additional thunderstorms are expected within the lower Missouri Valley late Thursday into Friday morning. Shear will be slightly stronger than areas to the southwest. Even so, mid-level lapse rates and elevated buoyancy will be marginal. Small hail is possible with the strongest storms, but severe potential still appears low.
..Wendt.. 10/28/2026
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Friday, October 30
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Friday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 281929
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Friday.
Synopsis
As upper-level ridging increases within the northern Plains, a shortwave trough in the Southwest will evolve into a nebulous trough within the southern/central Plains. Stronger mid-level flow will arrive within the lower Colorado Valley vicinity towards late afternoon into the evening as a shortwave trough approaches the Baja Peninsula.
A broad swath of convection/precipitation is expected in association with the shortwave trough and warm-advection within the Missouri Valley vicinity. Poor lapse rates and limited buoyancy should limit the intensity of this activity. Additional storms are possible during the mid/late afternoon in the lower Colorado Valley into parts of southern/central Arizona. Cooler temperatures aloft will support modest buoyancy (500 to around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE). While a strong storm or two could produce small hail, shear will remain limited during the afternoon and should keep severe risk low.
..Wendt.. 10/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Saturday, October 31
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, November 1 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, November 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, November 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, November 4 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280743 SPC AC 280743
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 6-8/Mon-Wed – Central CONUS
A large-scale upper trough is forecast to deepen across the western U.S. on Days 4-5/Sat-Sun. Thereafter, an upper level cyclone is forecast to develop over the Four Corners or Great Basin region and slowly progress eastward across the southern/central Plains Days 6-8/Mon-Wed. As this occurs, deepening surface cyclogenesis is forecast across the Plains, and a cold front will shift slowly eastward through mid-week. Some low severe potential could develop across the central/southern Plains toward the Lower MS Valley given increasing low-level moisture ahead of the surface low/cold front, in conjunction with strengthening deep-layer flow. However, large spread exists among medium-ranging guidance with regards to the evolution of this system (ECMWF suite much less progressive compared to GFS suite). Furthermore, calibrated and ML/AI guidance does not show a robust signal for severe potential at Days 6-8. Still, trends bear watching over the coming days.
..Leitman.. 10/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, November 1
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, November 1 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, November 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, November 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, November 4 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280743 SPC AC 280743
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 6-8/Mon-Wed – Central CONUS
A large-scale upper trough is forecast to deepen across the western U.S. on Days 4-5/Sat-Sun. Thereafter, an upper level cyclone is forecast to develop over the Four Corners or Great Basin region and slowly progress eastward across the southern/central Plains Days 6-8/Mon-Wed. As this occurs, deepening surface cyclogenesis is forecast across the Plains, and a cold front will shift slowly eastward through mid-week. Some low severe potential could develop across the central/southern Plains toward the Lower MS Valley given increasing low-level moisture ahead of the surface low/cold front, in conjunction with strengthening deep-layer flow. However, large spread exists among medium-ranging guidance with regards to the evolution of this system (ECMWF suite much less progressive compared to GFS suite). Furthermore, calibrated and ML/AI guidance does not show a robust signal for severe potential at Days 6-8. Still, trends bear watching over the coming days.
..Leitman.. 10/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, November 2
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, November 1 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, November 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, November 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, November 4 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280743 SPC AC 280743
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 6-8/Mon-Wed – Central CONUS
A large-scale upper trough is forecast to deepen across the western U.S. on Days 4-5/Sat-Sun. Thereafter, an upper level cyclone is forecast to develop over the Four Corners or Great Basin region and slowly progress eastward across the southern/central Plains Days 6-8/Mon-Wed. As this occurs, deepening surface cyclogenesis is forecast across the Plains, and a cold front will shift slowly eastward through mid-week. Some low severe potential could develop across the central/southern Plains toward the Lower MS Valley given increasing low-level moisture ahead of the surface low/cold front, in conjunction with strengthening deep-layer flow. However, large spread exists among medium-ranging guidance with regards to the evolution of this system (ECMWF suite much less progressive compared to GFS suite). Furthermore, calibrated and ML/AI guidance does not show a robust signal for severe potential at Days 6-8. Still, trends bear watching over the coming days.
..Leitman.. 10/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, November 3
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, November 1 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, November 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, November 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, November 4 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280743 SPC AC 280743
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 6-8/Mon-Wed – Central CONUS
A large-scale upper trough is forecast to deepen across the western U.S. on Days 4-5/Sat-Sun. Thereafter, an upper level cyclone is forecast to develop over the Four Corners or Great Basin region and slowly progress eastward across the southern/central Plains Days 6-8/Mon-Wed. As this occurs, deepening surface cyclogenesis is forecast across the Plains, and a cold front will shift slowly eastward through mid-week. Some low severe potential could develop across the central/southern Plains toward the Lower MS Valley given increasing low-level moisture ahead of the surface low/cold front, in conjunction with strengthening deep-layer flow. However, large spread exists among medium-ranging guidance with regards to the evolution of this system (ECMWF suite much less progressive compared to GFS suite). Furthermore, calibrated and ML/AI guidance does not show a robust signal for severe potential at Days 6-8. Still, trends bear watching over the coming days.
..Leitman.. 10/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, November 4
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, November 1 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, November 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, November 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, November 4 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280743 SPC AC 280743
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 6-8/Mon-Wed – Central CONUS
A large-scale upper trough is forecast to deepen across the western U.S. on Days 4-5/Sat-Sun. Thereafter, an upper level cyclone is forecast to develop over the Four Corners or Great Basin region and slowly progress eastward across the southern/central Plains Days 6-8/Mon-Wed. As this occurs, deepening surface cyclogenesis is forecast across the Plains, and a cold front will shift slowly eastward through mid-week. Some low severe potential could develop across the central/southern Plains toward the Lower MS Valley given increasing low-level moisture ahead of the surface low/cold front, in conjunction with strengthening deep-layer flow. However, large spread exists among medium-ranging guidance with regards to the evolution of this system (ECMWF suite much less progressive compared to GFS suite). Furthermore, calibrated and ML/AI guidance does not show a robust signal for severe potential at Days 6-8. Still, trends bear watching over the coming days.
..Leitman.. 10/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, October 28
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 5%
- Thursday, October 29
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Friday, October 30
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Saturday, October 31
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, November 1
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, November 2
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, November 3
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, November 4
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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