Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, November 3
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with potential for isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or two will be possible today from the Sabine and Lower Mississippi Valleys northward into the Mid Mississippi Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 031626
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Tue Nov 03 2026
Valid 031630Z - 041200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS NORTH AND EAST INTO THE LOWER AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with potential for isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or two will be possible today from the Sabine and Lower Mississippi Valleys northward into the Mid Mississippi Valley.
Synopsis
A midlevel cyclone over the southern Plains this morning will continue to slowly deepen today as it lifts northeast toward the upper Midwest. An associated surface cyclone over northeast Kansas this morning will lift northeast into eastern Iowa during the day before pivoting north then northwestward overnight as it occludes. At the same time, an attendant surface baroclinic zone will push east across the southern Plains today, with an appreciable moist plume on the east side of the baroclinic zone.
Morning water vapor imagery shows a pronounced shortwave trough entering the basal region of the longer-wave trough in which the midlevel cyclone resides. As this shortwave trough exits the basal region later today, it will take on an increasingly negative tilt and southerly midlevel flow above the Lower and Mid-Mississippi valleys will be sustained. In response to the evolving mid- and upper-level kinematic fields, the low-level jet will be sustained and move northeast, tied to the progress of the negatively tilted trough.
### East Texas toward the Lower Mississippi Valley
Thunderstorms are ongoing this morning within the broad moist plume ahead of the aforementioned baroclinic zone. Within this moist plume, weak midlevel lapse rates and a modest low-level theta-e airmass has held instability in check today – generally less than 1000 J/kg. Given low-level moisture trajectories, widespread cloud cover ahead of the advancing baroclinic zone, and weak lapse rates upstream of the region, instability should not really recover much today.
That said, low-level and large-scale forcing for ascent will continue to support convection through the afternoon and into the overnight hours. The strength of the kinematic fields will yield some tornado/wind potential within the various convective bands – especially where any low-level instability can develop. Additionally, transient supercell or supercell-like thunderstorms may develop ahead of the line within the broad warm-air advection regime. These shallow, but rotating, thunderstorms will also pose at least some potential for tornado/wind damage as well.
This threat should continue into the overnight hours across portions of western Tennessee and western Kentucky, especially if a zone of more discrete showers/thunderstorms can develop within the nocturnal low-level jet.
### Mid-Mississippi Valley
As the surface-low deepens this afternoon and evening, strong low-level wind fields will be maintained or even strengthen, yielding ESRH on the order of 250-350 m2/s2. As strong southerly midlevel flow is sustained in response to the approaching midlevel shortwave trough, effective-layer shear in excess of 50 knots will be maintained or overspread much of the region. This far north, instability will be even more limited than compared to areas farther south. However, convergence along the surface front and large-scale ascent from the midlevel wave will support bands of forced convection during the day and into the evening. The strong kinematic fields may be sufficient to offset the meager buoyancy and support a potential for isolated tornado/wind damage.
..Marsh/Supinie.. 11/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Wednesday, November 4
Outlook Summary
Severe storms are unlikely on Wednesday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 031716
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CST Tue Nov 03 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe storms are unlikely on Wednesday.
Southeast States
A broad upper trough will continue to move slowly eastward across the central/eastern states on Wednesday, with a potent shortwave trough affecting the southern Appalachians. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at 12z Wednesday morning over middle TN and northern AL, with activity persisting and moving eastward into parts of east TN/GA/western Carolinas through the afternoon. Strong flow aloft may result in localized damaging wind gusts, but instability will be very weak. A small 5% wind area was considered for northeast AL/northwest GA, but given the weak CAPE fields will defer to later updates.
..Hart.. 11/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Thursday, November 5
Outlook Summary
Severe storms are unlikely on Thursday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 031838
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CST Tue Nov 03 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe storms are unlikely on Thursday.
Southeast States
A series of shortwave troughs will track eastward across the central and eastern US on Thursday, with a moist and marginally unstable air mass remaining over the southeast states. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will be possible from FL northward into NV/VA. Low-level winds are forecast to weaken through the period over this area, and given the weak CAPE values, no organized severe storms are anticipated.
KS/OK
An upper trough and associated cold pool aloft will track from the central Rockies into parts of KS/OK on Thursday. This will result in a pocket of steep mid level lapse rates and marginal CAPE. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will be possible in this area.
..Hart.. 11/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Friday, November 6
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, November 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, November 7 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, November 8 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, November 9 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, November 10 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030910 SPC AC 030910
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0310 AM CST Tue Nov 03 2026
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
On Fri/D4, a positive-tilt upper trough is forecast to move across the Appalachians, with a 50+ kt midlevel speed max moving into the Mid Atlantic. At least mid 60s F dewpoints will already be in place from GA into the Carolinas and eastern VA ahead of a developing cold front, which will likely lead to weak destabilization. Indications are that scattered rain and thunderstorms may be ongoing early in the day from the Savannah River to the DelMarVa, which will limit further destabilization. Moderate deep-layer shear along with sufficient instability could aid at least a low-end wind potential.
From Sat/D5 through Tue/D8, high pressure is forecast to spread across most of the CONUS, shunting any appreciable moisture and instability offshore.
..Jewell.. 11/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, November 7
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, November 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, November 7 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, November 8 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, November 9 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, November 10 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030910 SPC AC 030910
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0310 AM CST Tue Nov 03 2026
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
On Fri/D4, a positive-tilt upper trough is forecast to move across the Appalachians, with a 50+ kt midlevel speed max moving into the Mid Atlantic. At least mid 60s F dewpoints will already be in place from GA into the Carolinas and eastern VA ahead of a developing cold front, which will likely lead to weak destabilization. Indications are that scattered rain and thunderstorms may be ongoing early in the day from the Savannah River to the DelMarVa, which will limit further destabilization. Moderate deep-layer shear along with sufficient instability could aid at least a low-end wind potential.
From Sat/D5 through Tue/D8, high pressure is forecast to spread across most of the CONUS, shunting any appreciable moisture and instability offshore.
..Jewell.. 11/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, November 8
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, November 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, November 7 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, November 8 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, November 9 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, November 10 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030910 SPC AC 030910
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0310 AM CST Tue Nov 03 2026
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
On Fri/D4, a positive-tilt upper trough is forecast to move across the Appalachians, with a 50+ kt midlevel speed max moving into the Mid Atlantic. At least mid 60s F dewpoints will already be in place from GA into the Carolinas and eastern VA ahead of a developing cold front, which will likely lead to weak destabilization. Indications are that scattered rain and thunderstorms may be ongoing early in the day from the Savannah River to the DelMarVa, which will limit further destabilization. Moderate deep-layer shear along with sufficient instability could aid at least a low-end wind potential.
From Sat/D5 through Tue/D8, high pressure is forecast to spread across most of the CONUS, shunting any appreciable moisture and instability offshore.
..Jewell.. 11/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, November 9
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, November 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, November 7 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, November 8 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, November 9 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, November 10 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030910 SPC AC 030910
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0310 AM CST Tue Nov 03 2026
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
On Fri/D4, a positive-tilt upper trough is forecast to move across the Appalachians, with a 50+ kt midlevel speed max moving into the Mid Atlantic. At least mid 60s F dewpoints will already be in place from GA into the Carolinas and eastern VA ahead of a developing cold front, which will likely lead to weak destabilization. Indications are that scattered rain and thunderstorms may be ongoing early in the day from the Savannah River to the DelMarVa, which will limit further destabilization. Moderate deep-layer shear along with sufficient instability could aid at least a low-end wind potential.
From Sat/D5 through Tue/D8, high pressure is forecast to spread across most of the CONUS, shunting any appreciable moisture and instability offshore.
..Jewell.. 11/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, November 10
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, November 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, November 7 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, November 8 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, November 9 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, November 10 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030910 SPC AC 030910
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0310 AM CST Tue Nov 03 2026
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
On Fri/D4, a positive-tilt upper trough is forecast to move across the Appalachians, with a 50+ kt midlevel speed max moving into the Mid Atlantic. At least mid 60s F dewpoints will already be in place from GA into the Carolinas and eastern VA ahead of a developing cold front, which will likely lead to weak destabilization. Indications are that scattered rain and thunderstorms may be ongoing early in the day from the Savannah River to the DelMarVa, which will limit further destabilization. Moderate deep-layer shear along with sufficient instability could aid at least a low-end wind potential.
From Sat/D5 through Tue/D8, high pressure is forecast to spread across most of the CONUS, shunting any appreciable moisture and instability offshore.
..Jewell.. 11/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, November 3
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Wednesday, November 4
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Thursday, November 5
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Friday, November 6
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, November 7
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, November 8
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, November 9
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, November 10
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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