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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Friday, April 24

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected today from the Southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex and Lower Mississippi Valley. Large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. Isolated strong wind gusts may also occur in parts of the lower Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 240552

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS…ARK-LA-TEX AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected today from the Southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex and Lower Mississippi Valley. Large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. Isolated strong wind gusts may also occur in parts of the lower Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes.

Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex/Lower Mississippi Valley

A mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley today, as cyclonic west to southwesterly flow remains over much of the south-central U.S. At the surface, an outflow boundary will advance southward into the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley this morning. Thunderstorms will be ongoing along the boundary at the start of the period. These storms will move southward across Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi. As surface temperatures warm during the day, a wind-damage threat is expected along the more organized parts of this line. A couple of tornadoes will also be possible with rotating elements embedded in the line.

Further west into the southern Plains, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from east Texas into far southern Oklahoma. Additional storms are expected to initiate during the mid afternoon along an east-to-west axis of low-level convergence in southeast Oklahoma. These storms are expected to move southward into northeast Texas and northwestern Louisiana during the late afternoon and early evening. Forecast soundings near the Red River in far southeast Oklahoma late this afternoon have MLCAPE near 3500 J/kg, 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This will support supercells with isolated large hail. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to reach near 225 m2/s2, which will support a tornado threat with supercells. If the storms can transition into a short intense line segment, then a localized swath of wind damage may also occur.

Southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley

A mid-level shortwave trough, and an associated cold front will move northeastward into the Great Lakes region today. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place from the Lower Ohio Valley northward into lower Michigan. As surface temperatures warm during the day, surface dewpoints in the lower 60s F will contribute to weak destabilization. This, combined with increasing low-level convergence will support thunderstorm development ahead of the front. These storms will move eastward across the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley during the afternoon. Forecast soundings ahead of the storms have very steep low-level lapse rates approaching 8 C/km, which could support an isolated wind-damage threat.

..Broyles/Moore.. 04/24/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Saturday, April 25

Outlook Summary

One or two clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms, posing a risk for large hail and damaging wind gusts, are possible across parts of the southeastern Great Plains Saturday afternoon and evening.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 240534

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA…ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS AND WESTERN ARKANSAS

### SUMMARY

One or two clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms, posing a risk for large hail and damaging wind gusts, are possible across parts of the southeastern Great Plains Saturday afternoon and evening.

Discussion

Downstream of an initially amplified, but becoming increasingly suppressed, blocking ridge, models indicate that the center of a deep mid-level low now forming over southern Saskatchewan may only move subtly northward or northwestward through this period. It appears that the broader cyclonic circulation will continue to elongate Saturday through Saturday night, with one notable emerging short wave perturbation accelerating north of the international border through northwestern Quebec. To the southwest of the residual mid-level low, a couple of additional emerging perturbations are forecast to contribute to south-southwestward digging troughing along and inland of the U.S. Pacific coast.

In response to the latter development, a fairly significant short wave impulse is forecast to accelerate east-northeastward out of the southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific, inland of the Pacific coast through the southern Great Basin and lower Colorado Valley by 12Z Sunday. Downstream, mid-level heights are forecast to generally rise with large-scale ridging building across the southern Rockies through much of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. Models continue to suggest that this may be slowed a bit by subtle mid-level height falls associated with a weak short wave perturbation progressing east of the southern Rockies, through portions of Kansas and Oklahoma during the day Saturday.

In lower levels, seasonably moist air, supportive of moderate to strong potential instability beneath steep mid-level lapse rates, appears likely to remain confined beneath the larger-scale mid-level ridging. Initially this will be south of the Red River through the lower Mississippi Valley, along and south of a convectively enhanced surface front which may become increasingly diffuse through the day. Models vary with the extent to which this occurs across and north of the Red River through the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity, but a dryline is generally forecast to sharpen roughly from the Wichita Falls TX through Del Rio TX vicinity by late Saturday afternoon, near the southeastern periphery of broad weak surface troughing.

Central/Southern Great Plains

Model disparity concerning the evolution of surface boundaries and boundary-layer moistening/destabilization to the north of the Red River add uncertainty to this forecast. Stronger mid-level ridging and capping will remain present to the south of the Red River, as subtle mid-level height falls overspread parts of Kansas/Oklahoma through the day.

At some point, it appears that large-scale forcing for ascent aided by lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection will support increasing thunderstorm development within elevated moisture return and destabilization. Latest convection allowing guidance suggests highest probabilities for this to occur may be well to the north and east of the dryline, across parts of north central Oklahoma by mid to late afternoon, when it appears that at least elevated destabilization may support the risk for large hail, perhaps occasionally in excess of 2 inches in diameter, in the presence of strong cloud-bearing layer shear.

Even if the near-surface inflow for this activity begins to emanate from a more unstable boundary-layer, rather modest to weak low-level hodographs probably will limit tornadic potential. However, increasing and consolidating convective development could gradually organize and become capable of producing strong to severe wind gusts late Saturday afternoon and evening, while tending to propagate southeastward across eastern Oklahoma and adjacent portions of Arkansas.

..Kerr.. 04/24/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Sunday, April 26

Outlook Summary

Widely scattered severe storms with potential to produce large hail and a couple of strong tornadoes are possible by early Sunday evening across parts of the central and southern Great Plains, before one or two organizing clusters of storms spread toward the middle/lower Missouri Valley with potentially damaging wind gusts.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 240730

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA…WESTERN MISSOURI

### SUMMARY

Widely scattered severe storms with potential to produce large hail and a couple of strong tornadoes are possible by early Sunday evening across parts of the central and southern Great Plains, before one or two organizing clusters of storms spread toward the middle/lower Missouri Valley with potentially damaging wind gusts.

Discussion

A remnant elongated cyclonic mid-level circulation/shear axis may tend to shift north-northeastward through Saskatchewan/Manitoba through this period, while larger-scale troughing along an axis inland of the U.S. Pacific coast through the Hudson Bay vicinity weakens through this period. However, mid/upper ridging across southern/central Mexico into portions of the southern Great Plains and lower Mississippi Valley appears likely to maintain considerable strength, while a notable short wave perturbation accelerates out of the southern Great Basin/lower Colorado Valley, within strong southwesterly flow between the two features.

Models suggest that stronger mid-level height falls will generally overspread the eastern Colorado/western Kansas/southwest Nebraska vicinity of the high plains late Sunday afternoon into evening, before reaching southern portions of the middle Missouri Valley by 12Z Monday, accompanied by a developing low within the northern portion of deepening surface troughing extending southward into the southern Great Plains. Another low, developing by Sunday afternoon across the southeastern Colorado/Texas and Oklahoma Panhandle region may reach portions of central Kansas.

In response to these developments, seasonably moist low-level air, initially confined to the southern Great Plains, perhaps as far north as central Oklahoma at the outset of the period, may tend to advect in a corridor ahead of a sharpening dryline across western Oklahoma into western Kansas by late afternoon. Downstream, models suggest that a warm frontal zone may become better defined by early Sunday evening across southern Kansas into the Ozark Plateau vicinity, before tending to shift northward.

Great Plains… Although though there is not a strong signal yet evident within latest model output concerning potential convective evolution during this period, at least isolated to perhaps widely scattered supercell development may initiate along the dryline as far south as northwest Texas by late Sunday afternoon, in the presence of destabilization and strengthening shear. By early Sunday evening, this probably will include enlarging, clockwise curved low-level hodographs beneath a strengthening southerly low-level jet. This may become supportive of increasing potential for a couple of strong tornadoes, in addition to large hail, with increasing storm coverage probable across the western Kansas vicinity.

Gradually, large-scale forcing for ascent, focusing along the warm front, may support one or two upscale growing clusters of storms spreading into the middle/lower Missouri Valley overnight, with damaging wind gusts becoming the more prominent severe hazard along with perhaps some continuing risk for tornadoes.

..Kerr.. 04/24/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Monday, April 27

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240901 SPC AC 240901

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Valid 271200Z - 021200Z

DISCUSSION

Latest medium-range model output suggests that a significant short wave perturbation emerging from the Southwest will pivot northeast of the middle/lower Missouri Valley, into the upper Great Lakes region, Monday through Monday night. It appears that the warm sector of an associated sub-1000 mb surface cyclone will become characterized by at least moderately large CAPE, ahead of the dryline/cold front overspreading much of the middle Mississippi Valley during the afternoon into evening. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, organized severe thunderstorm activity appears probable. It remains a bit unclear the extent to which sustained supercell development will be maintained, as opposed to convection quickly growing upscale into one or more clusters/lines, but there appears at least some potential for a few strong tornadoes, in addition to large hail and potentially widespread strong to severe wind gusts.

In the wake of this activity, into the middle to latter portion of next week, convective potential becomes more unclear as strong flow trends westerly, and broadly confluent across and east of the Rockies, between broad mid-level troughing overspreading the northern tier and broad mid-level ridging across the southern tier. Another, initially notable, short wave perturbation emerging from the southern mid-latitude/subtropical eastern Pacific is still forecast to progress into the Southwest. But latest model output suggests that it may become sheared while continuing across and east of the southern Rockies, with only modest to weak surface cyclogenesis currently forecast along a remnant frontal zone across the southern Great Plains through Southeast.

..Kerr.. 04/24/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, April 28

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240901 SPC AC 240901

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Valid 271200Z - 021200Z

DISCUSSION

Latest medium-range model output suggests that a significant short wave perturbation emerging from the Southwest will pivot northeast of the middle/lower Missouri Valley, into the upper Great Lakes region, Monday through Monday night. It appears that the warm sector of an associated sub-1000 mb surface cyclone will become characterized by at least moderately large CAPE, ahead of the dryline/cold front overspreading much of the middle Mississippi Valley during the afternoon into evening. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, organized severe thunderstorm activity appears probable. It remains a bit unclear the extent to which sustained supercell development will be maintained, as opposed to convection quickly growing upscale into one or more clusters/lines, but there appears at least some potential for a few strong tornadoes, in addition to large hail and potentially widespread strong to severe wind gusts.

In the wake of this activity, into the middle to latter portion of next week, convective potential becomes more unclear as strong flow trends westerly, and broadly confluent across and east of the Rockies, between broad mid-level troughing overspreading the northern tier and broad mid-level ridging across the southern tier. Another, initially notable, short wave perturbation emerging from the southern mid-latitude/subtropical eastern Pacific is still forecast to progress into the Southwest. But latest model output suggests that it may become sheared while continuing across and east of the southern Rockies, with only modest to weak surface cyclogenesis currently forecast along a remnant frontal zone across the southern Great Plains through Southeast.

..Kerr.. 04/24/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, April 29

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240901 SPC AC 240901

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Valid 271200Z - 021200Z

DISCUSSION

Latest medium-range model output suggests that a significant short wave perturbation emerging from the Southwest will pivot northeast of the middle/lower Missouri Valley, into the upper Great Lakes region, Monday through Monday night. It appears that the warm sector of an associated sub-1000 mb surface cyclone will become characterized by at least moderately large CAPE, ahead of the dryline/cold front overspreading much of the middle Mississippi Valley during the afternoon into evening. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, organized severe thunderstorm activity appears probable. It remains a bit unclear the extent to which sustained supercell development will be maintained, as opposed to convection quickly growing upscale into one or more clusters/lines, but there appears at least some potential for a few strong tornadoes, in addition to large hail and potentially widespread strong to severe wind gusts.

In the wake of this activity, into the middle to latter portion of next week, convective potential becomes more unclear as strong flow trends westerly, and broadly confluent across and east of the Rockies, between broad mid-level troughing overspreading the northern tier and broad mid-level ridging across the southern tier. Another, initially notable, short wave perturbation emerging from the southern mid-latitude/subtropical eastern Pacific is still forecast to progress into the Southwest. But latest model output suggests that it may become sheared while continuing across and east of the southern Rockies, with only modest to weak surface cyclogenesis currently forecast along a remnant frontal zone across the southern Great Plains through Southeast.

..Kerr.. 04/24/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Thursday, April 30

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240901 SPC AC 240901

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Valid 271200Z - 021200Z

DISCUSSION

Latest medium-range model output suggests that a significant short wave perturbation emerging from the Southwest will pivot northeast of the middle/lower Missouri Valley, into the upper Great Lakes region, Monday through Monday night. It appears that the warm sector of an associated sub-1000 mb surface cyclone will become characterized by at least moderately large CAPE, ahead of the dryline/cold front overspreading much of the middle Mississippi Valley during the afternoon into evening. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, organized severe thunderstorm activity appears probable. It remains a bit unclear the extent to which sustained supercell development will be maintained, as opposed to convection quickly growing upscale into one or more clusters/lines, but there appears at least some potential for a few strong tornadoes, in addition to large hail and potentially widespread strong to severe wind gusts.

In the wake of this activity, into the middle to latter portion of next week, convective potential becomes more unclear as strong flow trends westerly, and broadly confluent across and east of the Rockies, between broad mid-level troughing overspreading the northern tier and broad mid-level ridging across the southern tier. Another, initially notable, short wave perturbation emerging from the southern mid-latitude/subtropical eastern Pacific is still forecast to progress into the Southwest. But latest model output suggests that it may become sheared while continuing across and east of the southern Rockies, with only modest to weak surface cyclogenesis currently forecast along a remnant frontal zone across the southern Great Plains through Southeast.

..Kerr.. 04/24/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Friday, May 1

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240901 SPC AC 240901

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Valid 271200Z - 021200Z

DISCUSSION

Latest medium-range model output suggests that a significant short wave perturbation emerging from the Southwest will pivot northeast of the middle/lower Missouri Valley, into the upper Great Lakes region, Monday through Monday night. It appears that the warm sector of an associated sub-1000 mb surface cyclone will become characterized by at least moderately large CAPE, ahead of the dryline/cold front overspreading much of the middle Mississippi Valley during the afternoon into evening. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, organized severe thunderstorm activity appears probable. It remains a bit unclear the extent to which sustained supercell development will be maintained, as opposed to convection quickly growing upscale into one or more clusters/lines, but there appears at least some potential for a few strong tornadoes, in addition to large hail and potentially widespread strong to severe wind gusts.

In the wake of this activity, into the middle to latter portion of next week, convective potential becomes more unclear as strong flow trends westerly, and broadly confluent across and east of the Rockies, between broad mid-level troughing overspreading the northern tier and broad mid-level ridging across the southern tier. Another, initially notable, short wave perturbation emerging from the southern mid-latitude/subtropical eastern Pacific is still forecast to progress into the Southwest. But latest model output suggests that it may become sheared while continuing across and east of the southern Rockies, with only modest to weak surface cyclogenesis currently forecast along a remnant frontal zone across the southern Great Plains through Southeast.

..Kerr.. 04/24/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Friday, April 24

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Saturday, April 25

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 30%

WIND: 30%

Sunday, April 26

ANY SEVERE: 30%

Monday, April 27

ANY SEVERE: 30%

Tuesday, April 28

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Wednesday, April 29

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Thursday, April 30

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, May 1

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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