Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, December 31
Outlook Summary
Isolated thunderstorms are possible along coastal southern California very late in the period.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 311225
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0625 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025
Valid 311300Z - 011200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated thunderstorms are possible along coastal southern California very late in the period.
Southern CA
A southern-stream upper-level trough will approach the southern CA coast late tonight. Latest model guidance suggests increasing large-scale ascent will approach the coast, contributing to isolated convection along/ahead of a weak front as it surges inland, primarily after 09z. Forecast soundings along the coast suggest thunderstorms should be elevated in nature, with initial convection likely rooted at or above 850mb. Weak buoyancy and shear suggests minimal potential for severe storms prior to 12z Thursday.
..Bunting/Weinman.. 12/31/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Thursday, January 1
Outlook Summary
Locally damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible along a portion of coastal southern California on New Year's Day morning.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 310653
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN COASTAL SOUTHERN CA
### SUMMARY
Locally damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible along a portion of coastal southern California on New Year's Day morning.
CA and the Southwest
Guidance continues a decidedly northward trend to the evolution of the compact shortwave trough, currently west of southern CA. Latest indications are for this wave to reach the San Joaquin Valley around midday Thursday, before slightly dampening over the southern Great Basin. Thunderstorm potential appears greatest on Thursday morning with isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible across southern CA. Despite the early time of day, activity along the coast should be surface-based along the periphery of low 60s dew points. Buoyancy/instability will remain meager, given the expected northerly track of the wave and attendant mesoscale cold core displaced from the richer moisture plume. But guidance is consistent with the depiction of 40-50 kt 700-mb flow across the Transverse Ranges through midday. With some low-level hodograph curvature and several CAMs suggestive of at least one rotating cell in the LA Basin vicinity, have opted to include a small level 1-MRGL risk for wind and tornado.
Confidence remains low in the degree of thunderstorm potential farther north and east. Lower-level moisture east of CA should be greater across AZ, but this may remain displaced too far south of the latest consensus for the mid-level cold core. It is plausible that much of the convection from the Central Valley to AZ will remain low-topped, with thunderstorm probabilities around 10 percent or less.
..Grams.. 12/31/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Friday, January 2
Outlook Summary
General thunderstorms are forecast, mainly Friday night into early morning Saturday, across the central Gulf Coast and Deep South, as well as along a portion of the Pacific Coast.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 310828
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
General thunderstorms are forecast, mainly Friday night into early morning Saturday, across the central Gulf Coast and Deep South, as well as along a portion of the Pacific Coast.
Central Gulf Coast and Deep South
At least isolated thunderstorm potential should return across a portion of the interior Deep South on Friday night. Meager elevated buoyancy should develop as low-level moistening occurs ahead of a leading shortwave impulse tracking across the Mid-South to TN Valley. This impulse may dampen downstream of a shortwave trough progressing from the Four Corners to north TX. The bulk of MUCAPE should largely remain at around 500 J/kg or less, owing to modest mid-level lapse rates.
Farther south towards the central Gulf Coast from southeast LA to the FL Panhandle, richer low-level moisture should spread somewhat inland ahead of the more prominent shortwave trough. Most convective-parameterized models suggest an increase in convective development may occur at the end of the period within the low-level theta-e gradient. Despite a generally zonal deep-layer wind profile, adequate low-level hodograph curvature and robust speed shear renders a conditional supercell concern. But poor mid-level lapse rates renders concern for the degree of convective development prior to 12Z, with the 00Z RRFS having minimal deep convective signal. With minimal ML probabilities across this area as well, will defer to later outlook cycles for a level 1-MRGL risk highlight.
Coastal northern CA and southwest OR
A large-scale upper trough will approach the Pacific Coast, with an intense mid-level jetlet likely impinging on the northern CA coast on Friday night. Fast deep-layer flow is anticipated within the low-level warm conveyor, but should remain entirely meridional until near the end of the period. Instability within the warm conveyor appears minimal, suggesting that thunderstorm potential will remain negligible amid strong gradient flow. Steepening mid-level lapse rates may brush the northern CA to southwest OR coast in the early morning Saturday. This should support scant buoyancy and potential for very isolated thunderstorms.
..Grams.. 12/31/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Saturday, January 3
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, January 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, January 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, January 5 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, January 6 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, January 7 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 310951 SPC AC 310951
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
Primary severe concern will be across the northeast Gulf Coast States, during the morning to afternoon on D4/Saturday. A lower-amplitude shortwave trough remains consistently progged to dampen as it progresses quickly across the Southeast and northeast Gulf. With a weak surface cyclone, low-level winds should remain veered. But this should be adequate for weak buoyancy to spread east, emanating from the northwest Gulf and LA. With a more robust convective signal closer to the coast compared to D3/Friday, at least a level 1-MRGL risk should be warranted. This is supported by latest SPC-CSU and NSSL GEFS-based ML guidance with overlapping 5 percent probability areas.
Along coastal CA, while run-to-run predictability is poor, latest guidance has some signal for low-topped supercell potential this weekend, downstream of a large-scale trough off the Pacific Coast. This appears generally focused across northern CA on D4/Saturday, shifting to southern CA on D5/Sunday. Spatiotemporal aspects of individual shortwave impulses and attendant mid-level jetlets relative to probable scant/meager buoyancy profiles will be crucial for delineating areal highlights in shorter-term outlooks.
Otherwise, a combination of low potential/predictability remains evident early next week.
..Grams.. 12/31/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, January 4
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, January 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, January 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, January 5 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, January 6 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, January 7 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 310951 SPC AC 310951
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
Primary severe concern will be across the northeast Gulf Coast States, during the morning to afternoon on D4/Saturday. A lower-amplitude shortwave trough remains consistently progged to dampen as it progresses quickly across the Southeast and northeast Gulf. With a weak surface cyclone, low-level winds should remain veered. But this should be adequate for weak buoyancy to spread east, emanating from the northwest Gulf and LA. With a more robust convective signal closer to the coast compared to D3/Friday, at least a level 1-MRGL risk should be warranted. This is supported by latest SPC-CSU and NSSL GEFS-based ML guidance with overlapping 5 percent probability areas.
Along coastal CA, while run-to-run predictability is poor, latest guidance has some signal for low-topped supercell potential this weekend, downstream of a large-scale trough off the Pacific Coast. This appears generally focused across northern CA on D4/Saturday, shifting to southern CA on D5/Sunday. Spatiotemporal aspects of individual shortwave impulses and attendant mid-level jetlets relative to probable scant/meager buoyancy profiles will be crucial for delineating areal highlights in shorter-term outlooks.
Otherwise, a combination of low potential/predictability remains evident early next week.
..Grams.. 12/31/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, January 5
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, January 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, January 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, January 5 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, January 6 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, January 7 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 310951 SPC AC 310951
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
Primary severe concern will be across the northeast Gulf Coast States, during the morning to afternoon on D4/Saturday. A lower-amplitude shortwave trough remains consistently progged to dampen as it progresses quickly across the Southeast and northeast Gulf. With a weak surface cyclone, low-level winds should remain veered. But this should be adequate for weak buoyancy to spread east, emanating from the northwest Gulf and LA. With a more robust convective signal closer to the coast compared to D3/Friday, at least a level 1-MRGL risk should be warranted. This is supported by latest SPC-CSU and NSSL GEFS-based ML guidance with overlapping 5 percent probability areas.
Along coastal CA, while run-to-run predictability is poor, latest guidance has some signal for low-topped supercell potential this weekend, downstream of a large-scale trough off the Pacific Coast. This appears generally focused across northern CA on D4/Saturday, shifting to southern CA on D5/Sunday. Spatiotemporal aspects of individual shortwave impulses and attendant mid-level jetlets relative to probable scant/meager buoyancy profiles will be crucial for delineating areal highlights in shorter-term outlooks.
Otherwise, a combination of low potential/predictability remains evident early next week.
..Grams.. 12/31/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, January 6
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, January 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, January 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, January 5 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, January 6 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, January 7 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 310951 SPC AC 310951
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
Primary severe concern will be across the northeast Gulf Coast States, during the morning to afternoon on D4/Saturday. A lower-amplitude shortwave trough remains consistently progged to dampen as it progresses quickly across the Southeast and northeast Gulf. With a weak surface cyclone, low-level winds should remain veered. But this should be adequate for weak buoyancy to spread east, emanating from the northwest Gulf and LA. With a more robust convective signal closer to the coast compared to D3/Friday, at least a level 1-MRGL risk should be warranted. This is supported by latest SPC-CSU and NSSL GEFS-based ML guidance with overlapping 5 percent probability areas.
Along coastal CA, while run-to-run predictability is poor, latest guidance has some signal for low-topped supercell potential this weekend, downstream of a large-scale trough off the Pacific Coast. This appears generally focused across northern CA on D4/Saturday, shifting to southern CA on D5/Sunday. Spatiotemporal aspects of individual shortwave impulses and attendant mid-level jetlets relative to probable scant/meager buoyancy profiles will be crucial for delineating areal highlights in shorter-term outlooks.
Otherwise, a combination of low potential/predictability remains evident early next week.
..Grams.. 12/31/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, January 7
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, January 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, January 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, January 5 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, January 6 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, January 7 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 310951 SPC AC 310951
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
Primary severe concern will be across the northeast Gulf Coast States, during the morning to afternoon on D4/Saturday. A lower-amplitude shortwave trough remains consistently progged to dampen as it progresses quickly across the Southeast and northeast Gulf. With a weak surface cyclone, low-level winds should remain veered. But this should be adequate for weak buoyancy to spread east, emanating from the northwest Gulf and LA. With a more robust convective signal closer to the coast compared to D3/Friday, at least a level 1-MRGL risk should be warranted. This is supported by latest SPC-CSU and NSSL GEFS-based ML guidance with overlapping 5 percent probability areas.
Along coastal CA, while run-to-run predictability is poor, latest guidance has some signal for low-topped supercell potential this weekend, downstream of a large-scale trough off the Pacific Coast. This appears generally focused across northern CA on D4/Saturday, shifting to southern CA on D5/Sunday. Spatiotemporal aspects of individual shortwave impulses and attendant mid-level jetlets relative to probable scant/meager buoyancy profiles will be crucial for delineating areal highlights in shorter-term outlooks.
Otherwise, a combination of low potential/predictability remains evident early next week.
..Grams.. 12/31/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, December 31
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Thursday, January 1
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Friday, January 2
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Saturday, January 3
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, January 4
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, January 5
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, January 6
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, January 7
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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