Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, August 9
Outlook Summary
Scattered damaging winds may occur today into this evening from southern Minnesota and eastern Iowa eastward across parts of northern Illinois, southern Wisconsin, southern Lower Michigan, northwest Ohio, and northern Indiana. Damaging wind and hail is also expected across portions of the Dakotas.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 090515
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 AM CDT Sun Aug 09 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST…AND PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS
### SUMMARY
Scattered damaging winds may occur today into this evening from southern Minnesota and eastern Iowa eastward across parts of northern Illinois, southern Wisconsin, southern Lower Michigan, northwest Ohio, and northern Indiana. Damaging wind and hail is also expected across portions of the Dakotas.
IA/MN into the Midwest
Convection is expected to be ongoing this morning across parts of southern MN into eastern IA. This early day activity could pose a risk for damaging gusts. This activity is likely to continue to spread eastward across the Lake Michigan vicinity through the afternoon on the nose a of modest low-level jet and along a surface front oriented across southern WI and Lower MI. This activity could intensify as is moves into a destabilizing airmass by midday.
Additional development is possible within the moisture rich warm sector across northern IL/IN along the southern flank of ongoing convection and/or outflow. Strong to extreme instability is forecast, while vertically veering wind profiles support 30+ kt effective shear magnitudes. Low-level SRH also will be enhanced along the surface boundary. While damaging winds are expected to be the primary hazard with convection, some risk for hail and a tornado or two also will exist through evening. Depending on the evolution of morning convection, it is possible higher probabilities will be needed in subsequent outlooks.
Dakotas and western NE
A surface front is expected to develop southward across the central Plains, becoming oriented across northern KS by tonight. Low-level warm advection atop the boundary, and surface winds becoming south/southeasterly with time will maintain 60s dewpoints across the region. Within this post-frontal upslope regime, moderate northwesterly flow aloft will persist. A modest south/southwesterly low-level jet is also forecast to develop during the evening hours. Low-level convergence within the warm advection regime and increasing low-level jet may be sufficient for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. Supercell wind profiles and steep low-level lapse rates will support initial storms capable of large hail and damaging winds. If sufficient clusters/outflow consolidation can occur, upscale growth during the late evening into overnight hours is possible, with an increasing risk for swaths of severe/damaging gusts.
Southern Appalachians
Scattered thunderstorm development is expected over higher terrain within a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. Steepening low-level lapse rates and high PW values may support locally strong gusts with wet microbursts through early evening.
AZ
Modest easterly mid/upper flow will persist across the region on the southern periphery of an upper high over the Four Corners. Another day of hot conditions will promote steep lapse rates and modest destabilization. As convection develops over higher terrain and spread westward, strong outflow gusts may occur.
..Leitman/Moore.. 08/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Monday, August 10
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible Monday afternoon and evening from northern Illinois eastward into western Pennsylvania. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible from parts of the central and northern Plains into the Midwest.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 090542
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Sun Aug 09 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible Monday afternoon and evening from northern Illinois eastward into western Pennsylvania. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible from parts of the central and northern Plains into the Midwest.
Southern Great Lakes
At mid-levels, west-northwesterly flow will be in place on Monday from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes. A subtle mid-level shortwave trough and an associated jet streak will move through the Great Lakes. To the south of the jet streak, a cold front is forecast to advance southward into northern Illinois, northern Indiana and northern Ohio by mid afternoon. Low-level convergence along the front will be a focus for convective development. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints in the 70s F will contribute to moderate to strong destabilization by afternoon, with MLCAPE likely peaking in the 2000 to 3500 J/kg range. Thunderstorms are expected to develop near the front and move east-southeastward into the stronger instability during the afternoon and evening.
Along the instability axis in the late afternoon from Lincoln, Illinois to Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, the ECMWF has 0-6 km shear around 30 knots. This should support a mixed mode, with short intense line segments and embedded rotating storms possible. The primary threat will damaging wind gusts, with the maximum threat located ahead of any cold pool that can organize. The severe threat could persist into the early to mid evening, especially if MCS development takes place, maintained by increasing low-level flow.
Central and Northern Plains/Midwest
West-northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place over the north-central U.S. on Monday. A subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move east-southeastward across the northern Plains. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance southward across western South Dakota during the day, with a dryline extending southward into western Nebraska. To the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints in the 60s and 70s F will contribute to moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms appear likely to develop near the dryline during the mid to late afternoon. Additional isolated storms are expected to develop further east along the moist axis from eastern Nebraska into Iowa.
Forecast sounding along the moist axis in the late afternoon have MLCAPE peaking in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range with 0-6 km shear around 30 knots. This environment, combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates, will support isolated potential for severe wind gusts and hail.
..Broyles.. 08/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Tuesday, August 11
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, August 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, August 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, August 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, August 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, August 15 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080855 SPC AC 080855
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Sat Aug 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5
A broad cyclonic mid-level flow pattern is forecast from the upper Mississippi Valley into the Northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast to be in place over most of the eastern half of the nation with a quasi-stationary front located from the northern Plains east-southeastward into the southern Great Lakes. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints in the 70s F will likely result in the development of moderate to strong instability. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop each afternoon in areas where low-level convergence becomes maximized. Outflow boundaries will be important in determining where the greatest convective coverage ends up being. In addition to the instability, moderate deep-layer shear is forecast over much of this moist airmass suggesting that an isolated wind-damage threat will be possible. However, the lack of any appreciable mid-level shortwave trough introduces considerable uncertainty.
Thursday/Day 6 and Saturday/Day 8
From Thursday to Saturday, mid-level flow is forecast to become westerly over much of the northern U.S, with a front located from the central Plains eastward into the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible each afternoon and evening near this front. Surface dewpoints in the 70s F to the south of the front, along with moderate to strong instability will make isolated severe thunderstorms possible each afternoon and evening. However, spatial uncertainty concerning any potential severe threat is considerable at this range.
..Broyles.. 08/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, August 12
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, August 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, August 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, August 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, August 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, August 15 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080855 SPC AC 080855
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Sat Aug 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5
A broad cyclonic mid-level flow pattern is forecast from the upper Mississippi Valley into the Northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast to be in place over most of the eastern half of the nation with a quasi-stationary front located from the northern Plains east-southeastward into the southern Great Lakes. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints in the 70s F will likely result in the development of moderate to strong instability. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop each afternoon in areas where low-level convergence becomes maximized. Outflow boundaries will be important in determining where the greatest convective coverage ends up being. In addition to the instability, moderate deep-layer shear is forecast over much of this moist airmass suggesting that an isolated wind-damage threat will be possible. However, the lack of any appreciable mid-level shortwave trough introduces considerable uncertainty.
Thursday/Day 6 and Saturday/Day 8
From Thursday to Saturday, mid-level flow is forecast to become westerly over much of the northern U.S, with a front located from the central Plains eastward into the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible each afternoon and evening near this front. Surface dewpoints in the 70s F to the south of the front, along with moderate to strong instability will make isolated severe thunderstorms possible each afternoon and evening. However, spatial uncertainty concerning any potential severe threat is considerable at this range.
..Broyles.. 08/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, August 13
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, August 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, August 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, August 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, August 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, August 15 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080855 SPC AC 080855
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Sat Aug 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5
A broad cyclonic mid-level flow pattern is forecast from the upper Mississippi Valley into the Northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast to be in place over most of the eastern half of the nation with a quasi-stationary front located from the northern Plains east-southeastward into the southern Great Lakes. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints in the 70s F will likely result in the development of moderate to strong instability. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop each afternoon in areas where low-level convergence becomes maximized. Outflow boundaries will be important in determining where the greatest convective coverage ends up being. In addition to the instability, moderate deep-layer shear is forecast over much of this moist airmass suggesting that an isolated wind-damage threat will be possible. However, the lack of any appreciable mid-level shortwave trough introduces considerable uncertainty.
Thursday/Day 6 and Saturday/Day 8
From Thursday to Saturday, mid-level flow is forecast to become westerly over much of the northern U.S, with a front located from the central Plains eastward into the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible each afternoon and evening near this front. Surface dewpoints in the 70s F to the south of the front, along with moderate to strong instability will make isolated severe thunderstorms possible each afternoon and evening. However, spatial uncertainty concerning any potential severe threat is considerable at this range.
..Broyles.. 08/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, August 14
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, August 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, August 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, August 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, August 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, August 15 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080855 SPC AC 080855
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Sat Aug 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5
A broad cyclonic mid-level flow pattern is forecast from the upper Mississippi Valley into the Northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast to be in place over most of the eastern half of the nation with a quasi-stationary front located from the northern Plains east-southeastward into the southern Great Lakes. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints in the 70s F will likely result in the development of moderate to strong instability. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop each afternoon in areas where low-level convergence becomes maximized. Outflow boundaries will be important in determining where the greatest convective coverage ends up being. In addition to the instability, moderate deep-layer shear is forecast over much of this moist airmass suggesting that an isolated wind-damage threat will be possible. However, the lack of any appreciable mid-level shortwave trough introduces considerable uncertainty.
Thursday/Day 6 and Saturday/Day 8
From Thursday to Saturday, mid-level flow is forecast to become westerly over much of the northern U.S, with a front located from the central Plains eastward into the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible each afternoon and evening near this front. Surface dewpoints in the 70s F to the south of the front, along with moderate to strong instability will make isolated severe thunderstorms possible each afternoon and evening. However, spatial uncertainty concerning any potential severe threat is considerable at this range.
..Broyles.. 08/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, August 15
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, August 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, August 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, August 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, August 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, August 15 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080855 SPC AC 080855
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Sat Aug 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5
A broad cyclonic mid-level flow pattern is forecast from the upper Mississippi Valley into the Northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast to be in place over most of the eastern half of the nation with a quasi-stationary front located from the northern Plains east-southeastward into the southern Great Lakes. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints in the 70s F will likely result in the development of moderate to strong instability. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop each afternoon in areas where low-level convergence becomes maximized. Outflow boundaries will be important in determining where the greatest convective coverage ends up being. In addition to the instability, moderate deep-layer shear is forecast over much of this moist airmass suggesting that an isolated wind-damage threat will be possible. However, the lack of any appreciable mid-level shortwave trough introduces considerable uncertainty.
Thursday/Day 6 and Saturday/Day 8
From Thursday to Saturday, mid-level flow is forecast to become westerly over much of the northern U.S, with a front located from the central Plains eastward into the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible each afternoon and evening near this front. Surface dewpoints in the 70s F to the south of the front, along with moderate to strong instability will make isolated severe thunderstorms possible each afternoon and evening. However, spatial uncertainty concerning any potential severe threat is considerable at this range.
..Broyles.. 08/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, August 9
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Monday, August 10
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Tuesday, August 11
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, August 12
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, August 13
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, August 14
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, August 15
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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