Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, August 31
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe storms will be possible mainly later this afternoon into tonight across the Upper Midwest/upper Great Lakes into the central Plains, as well as across the lower Colorado River Valley and Great Basin.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 310601
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES AND LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY/GREAT BASIN
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe storms will be possible mainly later this afternoon into tonight across the Upper Midwest/upper Great Lakes into the central Plains, as well as across the lower Colorado River Valley and Great Basin.
Eastern Colorado/central High Plains to Upper Great Lakes
A prominent shortwave trough will spread east-northeastward across Saskatchewan and Manitoba through tonight, with 40-50 kt mid-level winds spreading across the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley. Across the Upper Midwest, a moist air mass will persist near a weak surface trough, with 2000-3000 J/kg MUCAPE from Iowa into Wisconsin and northern Illinois. However, forcing for ascent will generally be weak, but isolated afternoon thunderstorms may occur over areas such as Wisconsin. Conditionally, hail over 1.00" will be possible. Additional isolated activity is possible from Iowa into northern Illinois/northern Michigan late tonight.
A greater probability of thunderstorms will exist across eastern Colorado into Nebraska from mid/late afternoon into tonight, influenced by a northeastward-advancing mid-level wave. Strong heating over the central High Plains will support afternoon initiation near the Front Range, with clusters of storms producing strong to severe outflow winds, as storms potentially propagate into Nebraska. Bouts of severe hail and winds are possible.
Lower Colorado River Valley/Great Basin
A northeastward-transitioning mid-level disturbance or two will influence thunderstorm development as the boundary layer warms into this afternoon. Some enhancement to the flow aloft is expected, which could support some sustained storms and possibly a few transient supercells, primarily across far eastern Nevada, southwest Utah and northwest Arizona. Some hail could occur, but severe-caliber wind gusts are most probable hazard regionally.
Southern Louisiana/Gulf Coast
Reference NHC for the latest details regarding a disturbance off the coast of southern Louisiana. Related low-level flow fields are currently not expected to strengthen enough to support a meaningful near-shore/inland supercell potential through early Tuesday.
..Guyer/Wendt.. 08/31/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Tuesday, September 1
Outlook Summary
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday over parts of New York, Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Isolated severe storms may also extend westward into Nebraska.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 310604
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY
### SUMMARY
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday over parts of New York, Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Isolated severe storms may also extend westward into Nebraska.
Synopsis
An upper ridge will prevail over the central MS Valley to the central Appalachians while a negatively tilted upper trough amplifies over the Interior West tomorrow (Tuesday). Multiple mid-level impulses will pivot around the upper ridge, from the central Plains to the Mid-Atlantic, supporting multiple thunderstorm clusters all along the ridge. Across the Northeast, multiple pronounced mid-level impulses, preceded by seasonably cooler mid-level temperatures and stronger westerly flow atop rich low-level moisture, will promote strong thunderstorm potential, some of which may be severe. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible along the periphery of the upper ridge from the Midwest to Great Lakes.
Parts of the Northeast
Weak surface troughing will develop across the lower Hudson Valley, along with the development of a diffuse warm front beneath the northeast periphery of the upper ridge. Guidance currently suggests that at least two impulses may support thunderstorm development over southern New England into the northern Mid-Atlantic. The first and more subtle impulse will overspread the region during the day, accompanied by enough upper support to promote sparse thunderstorm development over the tri-state area. By afternoon, 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates will overspread 70s F surface dewpoints, resulting in 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE amid 40+ kts of effective bulk shear. Forecast soundings also show appreciably curved, sizeable low-level hodographs. As such, a couple of supercells will be possible, accompanied by a risk of severe hail/wind and perhaps a tornado.
Later overnight, the approach of a more pronounced mid-level impulse is expected. As this occurs, thunderstorms should develop around the Great Lakes and traverse the upper ridge, moving southeast toward the Mid-Atlantic coastline. Despite nocturnal cooling, the rich moisture in place will limit stabilization to a degree. Should stronger storms persist, a few instances of severe wind and hail are possible, especially over central and southern PA.
Portions of the Central Plains to Great Lakes
One mid-level impulse will eject into the central Plains while another low-amplitude upper trough traverses the Great Lakes through the period. By evening, a weak surface cyclone will develop over the central Plains while a diffuse warm front becomes situated over northeastern NE to central WI. Surface dewpoints may reach up to the mid 70s F along portions of this warm front, yielding over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE over several locales given 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreading this boundary. A belt of 50+ kt west-southwesterly 500 mb flow may also overlap with the aforementioned mid-level lapse rates given the approach of the embedded impulse, supporting 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear and modestly curved/elongated hodographs.
Given the strong overlapping buoyancy and vertical wind shear, any storm that can mature and become sustained may become multicellular or supercellular, accompanied by a severe wind/hail threat. At the moment, storm coverage should be sparse, since upper support with the Great Lakes mid-level trough should only graze the warm frontal zone, and the approach of the central Plains impulse should occur late in the period. Therefore, despite the favorable convective environment, probabilities have been maintained at Category 1/Marginal Risk.
Southern TX/LA
Tropical cyclone formation is possible within the next 48 hours along the LA coastline (please see the National Hurricane Center Outlooks for more details). This disturbance will continue to track west-northwestward along the LA/TX coastlines through Tuesday. Vertical shear profiles accompanying this disturbance are forecast to be quite weak, precluding tornado probabilities this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 08/31/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Wednesday, September 2
Outlook Summary
Severe storms are expected across portions of the eastern Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday. Severe wind and hail are the main threats, though a tornado or two may also occur.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 310716
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE
### SUMMARY
Severe storms are expected across portions of the eastern Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday. Severe wind and hail are the main threats, though a tornado or two may also occur.
Synopsis
Upper ridging will persist across the central and eastern CONUS as an upper trough progresses across the Intermountain West on Wednesday. A pronounced mid-level impulse will traverse the Great Lakes and overspread the northern Mid-Atlantic by Wednesday afternoon. Seasonably cold temperatures aloft and strong northwesterly flow will accompany this impulse while it passes over a moist and unstable boundary layer, promoting the potential for severe storms.
Northwest PA to the Mid-Atlantic Coastline
Scattered thunderstorms (perhaps strong) will be ongoing across PA and points southeast at the start of the period (12Z Wednesday). Through the early afternoon hours, showers and thunderstorms will give way to at least modest insolation, resulting in boundary layer destabilization. Surface heating of a moist boundary layer (e.g. low 70s F surface dewpoints) will result in 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE given mid-level lapse rates approaching 7 C/km. The aforementioned mid-level impulse overspreading eastern Lower Michigan to the Delmarva will result in strong northwesterly flow aloft and 35-45 kts of effective bulk shear. Furthermore, forecast soundings also depict appreciably large and curved hodographs, with over 200 m2/s2 0-3 km SRH. Supercells and bowing segments will be the most likely storm mode, with severe wind and hail the main threats, though a couple of tornadoes are also possible.
Portions of the eastern Great Lakes
A secondary mid-level impulse will traverse the eastern Great Lakes by Wednesday afternoon, which may support an additional round of storms. These storms will be preceded by 7.5-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, which will overspread 70 F surface dewpoints and yield 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE amid 35+ kts of effective bulk shear. Multicells and supercells may occur, accompanied by a severe wind/hail threat.
..Squitieri.. 08/31/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Thursday, September 3
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 2 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Thursday, September 3 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Friday, September 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, September 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, September 6 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300837 SPC AC 300837
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper ridge will remain centered over the TN Valley/central Appalachians through the end of the week before retrograding westward toward the Plains by next weekend. Multiple mid-level impulses and shortwave troughs will traverse the upper ridge this week before upper troughing dominates the Interior West toward the end of the extended forecast period. The best chances for severe thunderstorms will be with the aforementioned impulses traversing the ridge over the Great Lakes to the East Coast, particularly during the middle of the week.
Days 4-6 (Wednesday-Friday) - Northeast to Mid-Atlantic
Severe probabilities have been maintained for portions of the lower Hudson Valley into the Mid-Atlantic Day 4/Wednesday, as guidance consensus continues to show a well-timed shortwave trough overspreading this region. Medium-range guidance continues to show a convective precipitation signal accompanying this impulse along with appreciable buoyancy and vertical wind shear. It should be noted that convective overturning from Day 3 (Tuesday) storms may stabilize part of this area, with the specific location of storms becoming dependent on residual baroclinic boundaries. As such, the exact placement of Wednesday's severe probabilities may need to be adjusted accordingly.
Likewise, for Day 5/Thursday, another mid-level impulse will traverse the northeast extent of the upper ridge and overspread the Mid-Atlantic. Given adequate buoyancy and shear likely remaining in place, 15 percent severe probabilities have been introduced. As with the previous day, these probabilities may need some adjustment in future outlooks based on where airmass modification along baroclinic zones occurs.
Medium-range guidance continues to show a pronounced mid-level impulse, accompanied by adequate deep-layer shear and buoyancy, impinging on the Mid-Atlantic on Day 6/Friday, which would support at least an isolated severe threat. ML/AI guidance also suggests that the Friday severe threat would encompass the ending stages of a potential multi-day severe episode. Given the multiple preceding days of storms and constant shift in favorable corridors modulated by baroclinic zones, confidence is very low for realistically pinpointing a focused severe area. However, it appears the Delmarva may be the most likely area for seeing organized storm activity.
..Squitieri.. 08/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, September 4
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 2 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Thursday, September 3 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Friday, September 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, September 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, September 6 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300837 SPC AC 300837
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper ridge will remain centered over the TN Valley/central Appalachians through the end of the week before retrograding westward toward the Plains by next weekend. Multiple mid-level impulses and shortwave troughs will traverse the upper ridge this week before upper troughing dominates the Interior West toward the end of the extended forecast period. The best chances for severe thunderstorms will be with the aforementioned impulses traversing the ridge over the Great Lakes to the East Coast, particularly during the middle of the week.
Days 4-6 (Wednesday-Friday) - Northeast to Mid-Atlantic
Severe probabilities have been maintained for portions of the lower Hudson Valley into the Mid-Atlantic Day 4/Wednesday, as guidance consensus continues to show a well-timed shortwave trough overspreading this region. Medium-range guidance continues to show a convective precipitation signal accompanying this impulse along with appreciable buoyancy and vertical wind shear. It should be noted that convective overturning from Day 3 (Tuesday) storms may stabilize part of this area, with the specific location of storms becoming dependent on residual baroclinic boundaries. As such, the exact placement of Wednesday's severe probabilities may need to be adjusted accordingly.
Likewise, for Day 5/Thursday, another mid-level impulse will traverse the northeast extent of the upper ridge and overspread the Mid-Atlantic. Given adequate buoyancy and shear likely remaining in place, 15 percent severe probabilities have been introduced. As with the previous day, these probabilities may need some adjustment in future outlooks based on where airmass modification along baroclinic zones occurs.
Medium-range guidance continues to show a pronounced mid-level impulse, accompanied by adequate deep-layer shear and buoyancy, impinging on the Mid-Atlantic on Day 6/Friday, which would support at least an isolated severe threat. ML/AI guidance also suggests that the Friday severe threat would encompass the ending stages of a potential multi-day severe episode. Given the multiple preceding days of storms and constant shift in favorable corridors modulated by baroclinic zones, confidence is very low for realistically pinpointing a focused severe area. However, it appears the Delmarva may be the most likely area for seeing organized storm activity.
..Squitieri.. 08/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, September 5
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 2 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Thursday, September 3 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Friday, September 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, September 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, September 6 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300837 SPC AC 300837
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper ridge will remain centered over the TN Valley/central Appalachians through the end of the week before retrograding westward toward the Plains by next weekend. Multiple mid-level impulses and shortwave troughs will traverse the upper ridge this week before upper troughing dominates the Interior West toward the end of the extended forecast period. The best chances for severe thunderstorms will be with the aforementioned impulses traversing the ridge over the Great Lakes to the East Coast, particularly during the middle of the week.
Days 4-6 (Wednesday-Friday) - Northeast to Mid-Atlantic
Severe probabilities have been maintained for portions of the lower Hudson Valley into the Mid-Atlantic Day 4/Wednesday, as guidance consensus continues to show a well-timed shortwave trough overspreading this region. Medium-range guidance continues to show a convective precipitation signal accompanying this impulse along with appreciable buoyancy and vertical wind shear. It should be noted that convective overturning from Day 3 (Tuesday) storms may stabilize part of this area, with the specific location of storms becoming dependent on residual baroclinic boundaries. As such, the exact placement of Wednesday's severe probabilities may need to be adjusted accordingly.
Likewise, for Day 5/Thursday, another mid-level impulse will traverse the northeast extent of the upper ridge and overspread the Mid-Atlantic. Given adequate buoyancy and shear likely remaining in place, 15 percent severe probabilities have been introduced. As with the previous day, these probabilities may need some adjustment in future outlooks based on where airmass modification along baroclinic zones occurs.
Medium-range guidance continues to show a pronounced mid-level impulse, accompanied by adequate deep-layer shear and buoyancy, impinging on the Mid-Atlantic on Day 6/Friday, which would support at least an isolated severe threat. ML/AI guidance also suggests that the Friday severe threat would encompass the ending stages of a potential multi-day severe episode. Given the multiple preceding days of storms and constant shift in favorable corridors modulated by baroclinic zones, confidence is very low for realistically pinpointing a focused severe area. However, it appears the Delmarva may be the most likely area for seeing organized storm activity.
..Squitieri.. 08/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, September 6
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 2 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Thursday, September 3 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Friday, September 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, September 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, September 6 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300837 SPC AC 300837
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper ridge will remain centered over the TN Valley/central Appalachians through the end of the week before retrograding westward toward the Plains by next weekend. Multiple mid-level impulses and shortwave troughs will traverse the upper ridge this week before upper troughing dominates the Interior West toward the end of the extended forecast period. The best chances for severe thunderstorms will be with the aforementioned impulses traversing the ridge over the Great Lakes to the East Coast, particularly during the middle of the week.
Days 4-6 (Wednesday-Friday) - Northeast to Mid-Atlantic
Severe probabilities have been maintained for portions of the lower Hudson Valley into the Mid-Atlantic Day 4/Wednesday, as guidance consensus continues to show a well-timed shortwave trough overspreading this region. Medium-range guidance continues to show a convective precipitation signal accompanying this impulse along with appreciable buoyancy and vertical wind shear. It should be noted that convective overturning from Day 3 (Tuesday) storms may stabilize part of this area, with the specific location of storms becoming dependent on residual baroclinic boundaries. As such, the exact placement of Wednesday's severe probabilities may need to be adjusted accordingly.
Likewise, for Day 5/Thursday, another mid-level impulse will traverse the northeast extent of the upper ridge and overspread the Mid-Atlantic. Given adequate buoyancy and shear likely remaining in place, 15 percent severe probabilities have been introduced. As with the previous day, these probabilities may need some adjustment in future outlooks based on where airmass modification along baroclinic zones occurs.
Medium-range guidance continues to show a pronounced mid-level impulse, accompanied by adequate deep-layer shear and buoyancy, impinging on the Mid-Atlantic on Day 6/Friday, which would support at least an isolated severe threat. ML/AI guidance also suggests that the Friday severe threat would encompass the ending stages of a potential multi-day severe episode. Given the multiple preceding days of storms and constant shift in favorable corridors modulated by baroclinic zones, confidence is very low for realistically pinpointing a focused severe area. However, it appears the Delmarva may be the most likely area for seeing organized storm activity.
..Squitieri.. 08/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, August 31
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Tuesday, September 1
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Wednesday, September 2
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Thursday, September 3
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Friday, September 4
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, September 5
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, September 6
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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