Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, July 4
Outlook Summary
Severe storms capable of severe winds with gusts in excess of 75 mph and isolated occurrences of large hail remain possible across Oklahoma, with more sporadic occurrences of large hail and damaging winds from the Ozark Plateau into southern High Plains. Damaging winds and some hail threat will continue from southern New England into the Delmarva this evening. Isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging winds remain possible over the central High Plains.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 30%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 050059
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026
Valid 050100Z - 051200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
### THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE DELMARVA…OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS…AND FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Severe storms capable of severe winds with gusts in excess of 75 mph and isolated occurrences of large hail remain possible across Oklahoma, with more sporadic occurrences of large hail and damaging winds from the Ozark Plateau into southern High Plains. Damaging winds and some hail threat will continue from southern New England into the Delmarva this evening. Isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging winds remain possible over the central High Plains.
.Southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau
Recent radar data indicate the evolution of a well-defined bow echo over northeast OK with the crest of that feature moving toward Tulsa at around 45 mph. Additional intense storms exhibiting some supercell characteristics are being observed on the western flank of the bow echo over north-central OK, with more widely scattered strong to severe storm development from northwest OK into east-central NM. The 00z OUN sounding is likely a good representation of the inflow air mass to the ongoing storms, featuring modestly steep lapse rates and with MLCAPE of around 2500 J/kg. The current KICT and KVNX VWPs are sampling stronger winds above 5-6 km AGL than those observed by the 00Z OUN sounding, suggesting that deep-layer shear is likely closer to 40-45 kt in the vicinity of the ongoing storms.
Latest WoFS and HRRR data suggest the potential for a swath of intense straight-line winds with gusts in excess of 75 mph over the next 2-3 hours generally east of I-35 in OK in association with the bow echo. More sporadic occurrences of large hail and damaging winds will remain possible from western OK into eastern NM.
For additional near-term information, see MCD 1507.
### Southern New England to the Delmarva
Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are ongoing as of 00Z with several reports of wind damage and a 58 mph wind gust at BWI Marshall Airport. The inflow air mass remains hot and moist this evening with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg, per latest mesoanalysis. Regional VWPs and the 00Z OKX sounding indicate the strongest mid-level flow and resultant vertical shear across the middle and lower Hudson Valley into southern New England, which will support embedded bowing and supercell structures capable of damaging winds and large hail. Weaker vertical shear with southward extent into the Delmarva is being offset by comparatively stronger instability, which should allow for a continued damaging wind threat with storms moving toward the coast.
For additional near-term details, see MCD 1505.
### Eastern Colorado into Central Nebraska
Clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are ongoing this evening from the vicinity of Broken Bow, NE into northeast CO amidst a steep lapse rate and moderately unstable air mass, per 00Z LBF sounding. In the absence of appreciable forcing for ascent, storms should tend to weaken over the next couple of hours. In the near time, hail up to 1.5" and locally severe wind gusts will remain possible.
For additional near-term details, see MCD 1506.
..Mead.. 07/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Sunday, July 5
Outlook Summary
Scattered wind damage is possible with thunderstorms across the Mid-Atlantic Sunday afternoon and evening. Isolated strong storms also are possible across Montana and western North Dakota, and portions of the southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 30%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 041703
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
### SUMMARY
Scattered wind damage is possible with thunderstorms across the Mid-Atlantic Sunday afternoon and evening. Isolated strong storms also are possible across Montana and western North Dakota, and portions of the southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley.
Mid-Atlantic
A weak surface low is forecast to move west to east along a sagging cold front/baroclinic zone draped across PA into northern NJ/southeast NY on Sunday/Sunday evening. Meanwhile, lee troughing will develop across VA. A hot and very moist airmass will reside near and south of these boundaries, which will serve as a focus for severe storm development during the afternoon and into evening. Southwesterly flow aloft will weaken through the day as an upper shortwave impulse lifts northeast of the region, but around 20-30 kt mid/upper-level flow will persist. Moderate to strong destabilization is expected and thunderstorm clusters are expected by early to mid-afternoon. Sufficient clustering could occur along the southward-sagging cold front and one or more forward propagating clusters will be possible from northern VA into southeast PA until storms move offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast during the evening. Sufficient consistency among deterministic/CAMs and AI/ML guidance exists regarding storm coverage to warrant an upgrade to 30 percent wind probabilities for portions of the region.
Southern Plains to TN Valley
An remnant/weakening MCS is expected to be located over OK or AR Sunday morning. An MCV related to this feature will progress eastward toward the Lower MS and TN Valley vicinity through the day. Further south and west near the Red River Valley/North Texas into the southern High Plains, outflow associated with the late-Day 1/Saturday into early Day 2/Sunday MCS may arc across this region. Differential heating could occur along this boundary, providing support for redevelopment during the afternoon/evening. Boundary layer moisture will be modest with westward extent into the High Plains, but steep lapse rates aloft, and increasing moisture with eastward extent into the Lower MS Valley will support a corridor of moderate instability in the vicinity of the surface boundary. Northwesterly flow aloft will also modestly strengthen through the day, fostering weak, but perhaps sufficient vertical shear for transient organized cells/clusters along the boundary.
Further east, the MCV will locally enhance vertical shear amid a very moist and moderately unstable airmass. This could foster potential for one or more forward propagating storm clusters, and some risk for damaging gusts from wet microbursts, leading to a broad expansion of the Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk across parts of the Lower MS/TN Valley vicinity.
Northern Rockies into North Dakota
West/southwest flow aloft will strengthen across MT into ND as an upper shortwave trough moving across western Canada glances northern portions of the U.S. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will stretch from the northern Great Basin through southern/eastern MT into the western Dakotas. Low-level moisture will not be impressive, but the steep lapse rates aloft will support a corridor of modest destabilization across MT, and somewhat greater across western ND where boundary-layer moisture will be marginally better along a surface trough. Vertically veering wind profiles, with increasing speeds above 700 mb will support effective shear magnitudes greater than 30 kt, and organized storms are possible. Strong gusts and isolated hail will be the main hazards with these storms during the afternoon into evening.
..Leitman.. 07/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Monday, July 6
Outlook Summary
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon and evening across portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic and the northern Plains.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 041855
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MINNESOTA…AND THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
### SUMMARY
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon and evening across portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic and the northern Plains.
VA/NC vicinity
Upper troughing over the Midwest will continue to slowly shift east toward the Appalachians on Monday. Modest deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the central Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic vicinity as a surface low develops in the vicinity of WV. A surface boundary/cold front will sag southward across PA while surface troughing develops in the lee of the VA/NC mountains. A very moist airmass will persist and moderate destabilization is forecast. Thunderstorm clusters will once again develop and pose a risk for sporadic wind damage Monday afternoon into early evening.
Northern Plains into northwest MN
An upper shortwave trough will move east across the Canadian Prairies, glancing the U.S. northern Plains vicinity. This will bring a band of enhance mid/upper westerly flow across the region while a surface cold front develops southeast through the afternoon and nighttime hours. Southerly low-level flow will transport 60s dewpoints northward ahead of the front beneath modestly steep midlevel lapse rates. This will support moderate to strong destabilization. It is uncertain how far south convection may develop as large-scale ascent weakens into South Dakota and capping increases. However, supercell wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings, and where storms do develop, an accompanying risk for severe gusts and large hail is possible. An upgrade to Slight risk (level 2 of 5) may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence in storm coverage increases.
..Leitman.. 07/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Tuesday, July 7
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, July 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, July 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, July 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, July 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, July 11 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040843 SPC AC 040843
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
Based on the latest medium-range guidance, it appears that considerable amplification within the flow across the mid- and subtropical latitudes of the Pacific during this period may lead to the evolution of an increasingly prominent high becoming centered near or to the northeast of the Four Corners by early next weekend. Surrounding ridging may encompass much of the Intermountain West through Great Plains, as far north as the Canadian Prairies.
Associated monsoonal moisture return into parts of the Southwest may be accompanied by increasing convective potential that could include evolving clusters capable of producing strong to severe wind gusts. However, much as will likely remain the case in preceding days across and east of the Rockies, organized severe weather potential, if any, will be strongly influenced by sub-synoptic developments yet to evolve, and with low predictability at this extended time frame.
..Kerr.. 07/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, July 8
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, July 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, July 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, July 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, July 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, July 11 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040843 SPC AC 040843
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
Based on the latest medium-range guidance, it appears that considerable amplification within the flow across the mid- and subtropical latitudes of the Pacific during this period may lead to the evolution of an increasingly prominent high becoming centered near or to the northeast of the Four Corners by early next weekend. Surrounding ridging may encompass much of the Intermountain West through Great Plains, as far north as the Canadian Prairies.
Associated monsoonal moisture return into parts of the Southwest may be accompanied by increasing convective potential that could include evolving clusters capable of producing strong to severe wind gusts. However, much as will likely remain the case in preceding days across and east of the Rockies, organized severe weather potential, if any, will be strongly influenced by sub-synoptic developments yet to evolve, and with low predictability at this extended time frame.
..Kerr.. 07/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, July 9
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, July 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, July 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, July 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, July 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, July 11 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040843 SPC AC 040843
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
Based on the latest medium-range guidance, it appears that considerable amplification within the flow across the mid- and subtropical latitudes of the Pacific during this period may lead to the evolution of an increasingly prominent high becoming centered near or to the northeast of the Four Corners by early next weekend. Surrounding ridging may encompass much of the Intermountain West through Great Plains, as far north as the Canadian Prairies.
Associated monsoonal moisture return into parts of the Southwest may be accompanied by increasing convective potential that could include evolving clusters capable of producing strong to severe wind gusts. However, much as will likely remain the case in preceding days across and east of the Rockies, organized severe weather potential, if any, will be strongly influenced by sub-synoptic developments yet to evolve, and with low predictability at this extended time frame.
..Kerr.. 07/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, July 10
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, July 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, July 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, July 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, July 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, July 11 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040843 SPC AC 040843
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
Based on the latest medium-range guidance, it appears that considerable amplification within the flow across the mid- and subtropical latitudes of the Pacific during this period may lead to the evolution of an increasingly prominent high becoming centered near or to the northeast of the Four Corners by early next weekend. Surrounding ridging may encompass much of the Intermountain West through Great Plains, as far north as the Canadian Prairies.
Associated monsoonal moisture return into parts of the Southwest may be accompanied by increasing convective potential that could include evolving clusters capable of producing strong to severe wind gusts. However, much as will likely remain the case in preceding days across and east of the Rockies, organized severe weather potential, if any, will be strongly influenced by sub-synoptic developments yet to evolve, and with low predictability at this extended time frame.
..Kerr.. 07/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, July 11
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, July 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, July 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, July 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, July 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, July 11 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040843 SPC AC 040843
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
Based on the latest medium-range guidance, it appears that considerable amplification within the flow across the mid- and subtropical latitudes of the Pacific during this period may lead to the evolution of an increasingly prominent high becoming centered near or to the northeast of the Four Corners by early next weekend. Surrounding ridging may encompass much of the Intermountain West through Great Plains, as far north as the Canadian Prairies.
Associated monsoonal moisture return into parts of the Southwest may be accompanied by increasing convective potential that could include evolving clusters capable of producing strong to severe wind gusts. However, much as will likely remain the case in preceding days across and east of the Rockies, organized severe weather potential, if any, will be strongly influenced by sub-synoptic developments yet to evolve, and with low predictability at this extended time frame.
..Kerr.. 07/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, July 4
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 30%
- Sunday, July 5
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 30%
- Monday, July 6
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Tuesday, July 7
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, July 8
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, July 9
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, July 10
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, July 11
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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