Severe Weather Outlook
Hayley here
- Do you like
lofi music
whatever music Hayley put on
and terrifyingly loud computer voices? Then stop by the 24/7 ish severe weather live stream!
* stats delayed and were probably not accurate to begin with
National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, January 9
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are expected across southeast Texas into the central Gulf states.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 090545
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CST Thu Jan 08 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are expected across southeast Texas into the central Gulf states.
Southeast Texas to Central Gulf States
Midlevel speed max is forecast to translate through the base of the Four Corners trough into southeast NM at the start of the period before advancing into central OK by early evening. Subsequently, this feature will eject into southeast MO by 10/12z in response to a northern stream trough digging into the upper MS Valley overnight.
Late this evening, surface front had progressed to a position from western IL-northern AR-southern OK. This boundary should continue sagging south, and 00z model guidance suggests a weak surface wave will develop along the trailing boundary over south-central TX by early afternoon. Some deepening should occur as a weak surface low advances across northern LA into MS late in the period. Early in the day the primary focus for convection will be along the cold front across the lower OH/TN Valley region into the lower MS Valley, primarily driven by low-level warm advection beneath a modest LLJ. While this early-day convection may pose some risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado, the primary concern will occur later in the day as the secondary speed max ejects across the southern Plains toward southern MO.
Current thinking is elevated thunderstorms should develop ahead of the ejecting speed max/short wave by 18z across south central TX. This initial activity will likely be elevated, but as storms advance downstream surface-based parcels will have negligible inhibition near the lower Sabine River Valley. Hail/wind will be the primary concern early with supercells. During the evening a marked increase in the LLJ is expected across the lower MS Valley into northern AL overnight. As convection advances east, stronger low-level shear will favor some risk for tornadoes. While supercells are expected, a considerable amount of convection is expected along the synoptic warm front, and this should limit northward extent of higher instability air mass.
At this time it does not appear necessary to increase severe probabilities across the lower MS Valley into the central Gulf states, primarily due to the short wave ejecting well north of the higher-instability air mass.
..Darrow/Lyons.. 01/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Saturday, January 10
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast into parts of the Carolinas and southern Virginia.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 090640
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST…CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast into parts of the Carolinas and southern Virginia.
Southeast/Carolinas/Southern Virginia
At the start of the period, a large-scale upper-level trough will be located from the southern Plains to the Upper Midwest, with an associated 80 to 100 knot mid-level jet over the mid-Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys. The southern edge of the stronger mid-level flow will be over the Southeast, where a moist airmass will be in place Saturday morning. Within this airmass, low-level convergence ahead of a cold front will contribute to the development of scattered to numerous thunderstorms from the lower Mississippi Valley northeastward into the southern Appalachians. Weak instability along the moist axis along with moderate deep-layer shear, will likely be sufficient for an isolated severe threat early in the day. This threat is expected to develop into parts of the Carolinas and southern Virginia by midday, as a low-level jet translates northeastward. A brief tornado could occur near the low-level jet. However, the primary threat should be wind damage with the stronger short line segments. Lapse rates are forecast to remain poor, which should keep any severe threat marginal.
..Broyles.. 01/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Sunday, January 11
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, January 11 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, January 12 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, January 13 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, January 14 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, January 15 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080916 SPC AC 080916
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CST Thu Jan 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
Organized severe potential currently appears low through the extended-range period.
A cold front will move through coastal NC and parts of FL on D4/Sunday, in advance of a deep upper trough moving across the eastern CONUS, but ascent and buoyancy within the remaining warm sector appear too weak to support organized storms. For D5/Monday through D8/Thursday, generally dry and stable conditions in the wake of multiple frontal intrusions will tend to limit thunderstorm potential across most of the CONUS. Some guidance (notably the 00Z ECMWF) indicates that thunderstorm chances may return to parts of the FL Peninsula by mid week, in association with renewed upper trough amplification across the eastern CONUS. However, with guidance generally depicting only weak surface wave development during this time frame, confidence in organized storm development remains low.
..Dean.. 01/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, January 12
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, January 11 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, January 12 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, January 13 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, January 14 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, January 15 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080916 SPC AC 080916
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CST Thu Jan 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
Organized severe potential currently appears low through the extended-range period.
A cold front will move through coastal NC and parts of FL on D4/Sunday, in advance of a deep upper trough moving across the eastern CONUS, but ascent and buoyancy within the remaining warm sector appear too weak to support organized storms. For D5/Monday through D8/Thursday, generally dry and stable conditions in the wake of multiple frontal intrusions will tend to limit thunderstorm potential across most of the CONUS. Some guidance (notably the 00Z ECMWF) indicates that thunderstorm chances may return to parts of the FL Peninsula by mid week, in association with renewed upper trough amplification across the eastern CONUS. However, with guidance generally depicting only weak surface wave development during this time frame, confidence in organized storm development remains low.
..Dean.. 01/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, January 13
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, January 11 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, January 12 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, January 13 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, January 14 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, January 15 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080916 SPC AC 080916
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CST Thu Jan 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
Organized severe potential currently appears low through the extended-range period.
A cold front will move through coastal NC and parts of FL on D4/Sunday, in advance of a deep upper trough moving across the eastern CONUS, but ascent and buoyancy within the remaining warm sector appear too weak to support organized storms. For D5/Monday through D8/Thursday, generally dry and stable conditions in the wake of multiple frontal intrusions will tend to limit thunderstorm potential across most of the CONUS. Some guidance (notably the 00Z ECMWF) indicates that thunderstorm chances may return to parts of the FL Peninsula by mid week, in association with renewed upper trough amplification across the eastern CONUS. However, with guidance generally depicting only weak surface wave development during this time frame, confidence in organized storm development remains low.
..Dean.. 01/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, January 14
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, January 11 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, January 12 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, January 13 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, January 14 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, January 15 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080916 SPC AC 080916
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CST Thu Jan 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
Organized severe potential currently appears low through the extended-range period.
A cold front will move through coastal NC and parts of FL on D4/Sunday, in advance of a deep upper trough moving across the eastern CONUS, but ascent and buoyancy within the remaining warm sector appear too weak to support organized storms. For D5/Monday through D8/Thursday, generally dry and stable conditions in the wake of multiple frontal intrusions will tend to limit thunderstorm potential across most of the CONUS. Some guidance (notably the 00Z ECMWF) indicates that thunderstorm chances may return to parts of the FL Peninsula by mid week, in association with renewed upper trough amplification across the eastern CONUS. However, with guidance generally depicting only weak surface wave development during this time frame, confidence in organized storm development remains low.
..Dean.. 01/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, January 15
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, January 11 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, January 12 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, January 13 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, January 14 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, January 15 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080916 SPC AC 080916
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CST Thu Jan 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
Organized severe potential currently appears low through the extended-range period.
A cold front will move through coastal NC and parts of FL on D4/Sunday, in advance of a deep upper trough moving across the eastern CONUS, but ascent and buoyancy within the remaining warm sector appear too weak to support organized storms. For D5/Monday through D8/Thursday, generally dry and stable conditions in the wake of multiple frontal intrusions will tend to limit thunderstorm potential across most of the CONUS. Some guidance (notably the 00Z ECMWF) indicates that thunderstorm chances may return to parts of the FL Peninsula by mid week, in association with renewed upper trough amplification across the eastern CONUS. However, with guidance generally depicting only weak surface wave development during this time frame, confidence in organized storm development remains low.
..Dean.. 01/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, January 9
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Saturday, January 10
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Sunday, January 11
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, January 12
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, January 13
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, January 14
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, January 15
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Your Severe Outlook
Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.
Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.
Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.
About Severe Weather Outlook . com
SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.
- tornado hq - live severe weather warnings
- cyclocane - hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones
- tornado solitaire - play cards while you monitor the US severe weather threat
- tertremo - live view of earthquakes around the world
- earthquake solitaire - get live earthquake updates as you play your favorite card game