Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Thursday, August 13

Outlook Summary

Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible today from parts of the southern/central High Plains to the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys. Damaging winds should be the main threat, but occasional hail may also occur.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 130558

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF IOWA INTO ILLINOIS

### SUMMARY

Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible today from parts of the southern/central High Plains to the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys. Damaging winds should be the main threat, but occasional hail may also occur.

Iowa into Illinois/Indiana

An MCV has developed early this morning with an ongoing cluster of thunderstorms across central NE. This activity is expected to spread eastward through the morning, and should be in the vicinity of western/central IA by the start of the period. There is still uncertainty regarding how intense this cluster will be due to the presence of fairly substantial MLCIN downstream into IA. Even so, warm/moist advection associated with a low-level jet over the southern/central Plains and the presence of a rather moist/unstable airmass into IA suggest some potential for an organized cluster to pose a risk for scattered severe/damaging winds as it moves eastward through the morning. A brief embedded tornado may also occur if convection can remain surface based.

Even greater uncertainty exists this afternoon regarding potential convective evolution, with most guidance showing the cluster weakening as it moves into IN. Regardless, the airmass downstream and to the south of outflow associated with the morning cluster will destabilize through the day, and any additional thunderstorms that form could pose at least an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps some hail given the strong buoyancy forecast.

Southern/Central High Plains

High-based thunderstorms are forecast to initially develop over the higher terrain of the central Rockies/Front Range this afternoon, with post-frontal low-level upslope flow persisting across the central High Plains. As this activity spreads east-northeastward and encounters greater instability, consolidating outflows should support some increase for isolated severe gusts given steepened low-level lapse rates. Occasional hail may also occur with the stronger cores that develop. Consideration was given to including greater severe wind probabilities across eastern CO into parts of KS, but modest deep-layer shear casts some doubt on overall thunderstorm organization/intensity. A somewhat separate area of thunderstorms may also develop farther south across the southern High Plains in a very hot and well-mixed boundary layer. This activity should also pose a threat for isolated severe gusts through the afternoon.

Great Basin

Modestly enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow will persist today across the Great Basin downstream of a weak mid-level trough over CA. Weak to locally moderate instability is forecast to develop through the afternoon as filtered diurnal heating occurs. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to form and spread northeastward across this destabilizing airmass, with strong to severe gusts possible. Based on latest guidance trends (00Z HREF), have expanded the Marginal Risk for severe/damaging winds to include more of the Great Basin.

Northeast

Seasonably cool mid-level temperatures are forecast today across parts of the Northeast, with a mid-level trough expected to move east-southeastward from Quebec into New England. While instability is forecast to remain fairly limited, strong west-northwesterly flow aloft may support a risk for isolated damaging winds with thunderstorms that develop and spread southeastward through the afternoon. Isolated hail may also occur with the stronger cells.

..Gleason/Moore.. 08/13/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Friday, August 14

Outlook Summary

Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from the central High Plains into parts of the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Mid-Atlantic on Friday.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 130559

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST…OHIO VALLEY…AND MID-ATLANTIC

### SUMMARY

Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from the central High Plains into parts of the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Mid-Atlantic on Friday.

Synopsis

An upper ridge initially covering parts of the lower MS Valley and Southeast is forecast to build northward on Friday. Despite the building ridge, multiple MCVs may traverse the periphery of the ridge, helping to focus strong to locally severe storm development within a moist and unstable environment extending from the central Plains into the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas.

Ohio Valley into parts of the Mid-Atlantic

Elevated convection and possibly a remnant MCS may be ongoing Friday morning across parts of the Ohio Valley. Guidance varies regarding the organization/intensity of this morning convection, and whether it is associated with a well-defined MCV. In general, an isolated wind-damage threat could accompany the morning convection before it weakens, with some rejuvenation of wind-damage potential possible into parts of the Mid-Atlantic and NC, in conjunction with diurnal heating/destabilization. Some clustering and locally greater wind-damage potential may evolve across some part of the region, but uncertainty remains rather high regarding the details.

The 12/00Z NAM is an aggressive outlier, depicting a strong MCV approaching the Mid-Atlantic region during the afternoon, and substantial destabilization farther north across the Mid-Atlantic compared to other guidance. While confidence in this particular scenario is low, some expansion was made to the Marginal Risk across the Mid-Atlantic and NC, to account for uncertainty regarding the most favored corridor.

East-central Plains into the Midwest

Elevated convection will also likely be ongoing Friday morning from eastern NE into parts of IA/IL and vicinity. An isolated severe threat cannot be ruled out with this convection, though early-day storms may tend to diminish in conjunction with a weakening warm-advection regime.

In the wake of morning convection, moderate to strong buoyancy is expected to develop near/north of the outflow-influenced frontal zone during the afternoon, aided by rich low-level moisture. Veering low-level wind profiles near/north of the front will result in favorable effective SRH, though mid/upper-level flow will be modest at best and may weaken somewhat with height.

Most guidance suggests an MCV may emerge from the central High Plains and move along the periphery of the ridge through the afternoon/evening, though the timing and trajectory of such a feature remains uncertain. Any MCV-related uptick in storm coverage would result in a greater potential for organized severe storms. Otherwise, isolated strong to severe storms will still be possible. The favorable effective SRH could support initial supercell development, with some potential for all severe hazards. The weak to modest mid/upper-level flow could result in a quick transition to more of a cluster mode, potentially increasing wind-damage potential.

CO Front Range into the central High Plains

Low-level east/southeasterly flow will again promote moderate destabilization and scattered storm development in the vicinity of the CO Front Range Friday afternoon. Deep-layer flow/shear will generally be weak to modest, but the strongest cells may become capable of producing isolated hail and localized severe gusts. Farther south/east, high-based convection may develop into parts of the south-central High Plains, within a hot and well-mixed environment. Localized severe gusts could accompany these high-based storms.

Friday evening into the overnight, expanding outflow and an increasing low-level jet may allow for one or more upscale-growing clusters to develop and move across western KS (and perhaps southwest NE). The intensity and longevity of any such clusters could be limited by weak mid/upper-level flow, but some threat for strong to severe gusts could persist into early Saturday morning.

..Dean.. 08/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Saturday, August 15

Outlook Summary

Strong to locally severe storms are possible on Saturday from the central High Plains eastward into parts of the Midwest, Ohio Valley, southern/central Appalachians, and Carolinas.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 130729

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY…SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS…AND CAROLINAS

### SUMMARY

Strong to locally severe storms are possible on Saturday from the central High Plains eastward into parts of the Midwest, Ohio Valley, southern/central Appalachians, and Carolinas.

Synopsis

An upper ridge is forecast to remain anchored over parts of the southern Plains and lower MS Valley vicinity on Saturday. A warm-frontal zone initially extending from IA into the OH Valley is forecast to move northward as a warm front, while the western extension of this front may remain nearly stationary across the central Plains. Farther north, a weak surface low is forecast to move across northern MN, as a trailing cold front begins to move southeastward across parts of the Dakotas and eventually into parts of MN/IA/NE.

Central High Plains eastward into parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley

Another day of at least isolated severe potential is evident on Saturday along the periphery of the upper ridge. However, predictability is typically low regarding the details within this regime, and generally modest midlevel lapse rates and deep-layer shear may tend to limit the magnitude of severe potential. A broad Level-1/Marginal Risk has been included where the greatest relative severe potential is currently expected, though confidence in the details is low.

Despite the relatively modest lapse rates, rich low-level moisture will again support moderate to strong buoyancy near and north of the front extending from the central High Plains into parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley. Given the generally modest deep-layer flow/shear and nebulous large-scale ascent, any greater organized severe potential may be dependent on optimally timed MCVs moving along the periphery of the ridge.

Early-day convection across IA/MO may pose some severe threat, especially if any storm cluster is able to propagate along the frontal zone into parts of the OH Valley. Some guidance suggests that an MCV may develop across the central High Plains late D2/Friday and move east-northeastward across parts of NE/IA/southern MN through the day Saturday, which may aid in storm development near/north of the front during the afternoon/evening.

Farther west, diurnal storm development is again expected in the CO Front Range vicinity, which could result in some storm clustering as convection moves across the central High Plains Saturday night. Given the favorable low-level moisture and buoyancy, the strongest storms within any of these regimes could pose a threat for damaging winds and perhaps isolated hail, though it is also possible that the bulk of convection remains somewhat disorganized, due to relatively weak deep-layer flow/shear.

Southern/central Appalachians and Carolinas

Modest northwesterly mid/upper-level flow will overspread a moist and moderately unstable environment across parts of the southern/central Appalachians and Carolinas during the afternoon. A few stronger cells/clusters capable of damaging wind will be possible within this regime.

..Dean.. 08/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Sunday, August 16

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130906 SPC AC 130906

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

CORRECTED FOR TEXT

DISCUSSION

D4/Sunday

Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are expected to develop in association with a cold front that will move across parts of the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and northern Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. Deep-layer shear is generally forecast to remain weak, but moderate unidirectional westerly flow (potentially 30-40 kt in the 850-500 mb layer) within a favorably moist and unstable environment will support potential for multiple storm clusters with wind-damage potential.

Uncertainty remains regarding frontal timing and the influence (if any) of MCVs emanating from the Plains and Midwest. Also, given the generally weak deep-layer shear, the magnitude of the severe threat will be strongly influenced by the extent of pre-convective heating and steepening of low-level lapse rates. Confidence is too low to add a 15% area at this time, though severe probabilities will likely be needed later in the outlook cycle.

D5/Monday

The front will move southeastward on Monday into parts of the mid-MS/lower Ohio Valleys and Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas. Scattered storms are again expected along/ahead of the front. Some weakening of low/midlevel flow is expected and deep-layer shear will remain modest at best, so the severe threat may remain rather isolated.

Farther west, increasing moisture and instability within a modest west-northwesterly flow regime could result in some severe-storm potential from the central High Plains into the Dakotas.

D6/Tuesday - D8/Thursday

Predictability regarding the upper-level pattern begins to wane by early/mid next week. In general, periodic bouts of severe storms may continue across parts of the central/northern Plains and Upper Midwest, along the periphery of a persistent upper ridge. A less-organized severe threat may also persist near the remnant frontal zone across parts of the Southeast/Carolinas.

..Dean.. 08/13/2026

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Outlook for Monday, August 17

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130906 SPC AC 130906

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

CORRECTED FOR TEXT

DISCUSSION

D4/Sunday

Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are expected to develop in association with a cold front that will move across parts of the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and northern Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. Deep-layer shear is generally forecast to remain weak, but moderate unidirectional westerly flow (potentially 30-40 kt in the 850-500 mb layer) within a favorably moist and unstable environment will support potential for multiple storm clusters with wind-damage potential.

Uncertainty remains regarding frontal timing and the influence (if any) of MCVs emanating from the Plains and Midwest. Also, given the generally weak deep-layer shear, the magnitude of the severe threat will be strongly influenced by the extent of pre-convective heating and steepening of low-level lapse rates. Confidence is too low to add a 15% area at this time, though severe probabilities will likely be needed later in the outlook cycle.

D5/Monday

The front will move southeastward on Monday into parts of the mid-MS/lower Ohio Valleys and Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas. Scattered storms are again expected along/ahead of the front. Some weakening of low/midlevel flow is expected and deep-layer shear will remain modest at best, so the severe threat may remain rather isolated.

Farther west, increasing moisture and instability within a modest west-northwesterly flow regime could result in some severe-storm potential from the central High Plains into the Dakotas.

D6/Tuesday - D8/Thursday

Predictability regarding the upper-level pattern begins to wane by early/mid next week. In general, periodic bouts of severe storms may continue across parts of the central/northern Plains and Upper Midwest, along the periphery of a persistent upper ridge. A less-organized severe threat may also persist near the remnant frontal zone across parts of the Southeast/Carolinas.

..Dean.. 08/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, August 18

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130906 SPC AC 130906

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

CORRECTED FOR TEXT

DISCUSSION

D4/Sunday

Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are expected to develop in association with a cold front that will move across parts of the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and northern Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. Deep-layer shear is generally forecast to remain weak, but moderate unidirectional westerly flow (potentially 30-40 kt in the 850-500 mb layer) within a favorably moist and unstable environment will support potential for multiple storm clusters with wind-damage potential.

Uncertainty remains regarding frontal timing and the influence (if any) of MCVs emanating from the Plains and Midwest. Also, given the generally weak deep-layer shear, the magnitude of the severe threat will be strongly influenced by the extent of pre-convective heating and steepening of low-level lapse rates. Confidence is too low to add a 15% area at this time, though severe probabilities will likely be needed later in the outlook cycle.

D5/Monday

The front will move southeastward on Monday into parts of the mid-MS/lower Ohio Valleys and Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas. Scattered storms are again expected along/ahead of the front. Some weakening of low/midlevel flow is expected and deep-layer shear will remain modest at best, so the severe threat may remain rather isolated.

Farther west, increasing moisture and instability within a modest west-northwesterly flow regime could result in some severe-storm potential from the central High Plains into the Dakotas.

D6/Tuesday - D8/Thursday

Predictability regarding the upper-level pattern begins to wane by early/mid next week. In general, periodic bouts of severe storms may continue across parts of the central/northern Plains and Upper Midwest, along the periphery of a persistent upper ridge. A less-organized severe threat may also persist near the remnant frontal zone across parts of the Southeast/Carolinas.

..Dean.. 08/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, August 19

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130906 SPC AC 130906

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

CORRECTED FOR TEXT

DISCUSSION

D4/Sunday

Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are expected to develop in association with a cold front that will move across parts of the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and northern Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. Deep-layer shear is generally forecast to remain weak, but moderate unidirectional westerly flow (potentially 30-40 kt in the 850-500 mb layer) within a favorably moist and unstable environment will support potential for multiple storm clusters with wind-damage potential.

Uncertainty remains regarding frontal timing and the influence (if any) of MCVs emanating from the Plains and Midwest. Also, given the generally weak deep-layer shear, the magnitude of the severe threat will be strongly influenced by the extent of pre-convective heating and steepening of low-level lapse rates. Confidence is too low to add a 15% area at this time, though severe probabilities will likely be needed later in the outlook cycle.

D5/Monday

The front will move southeastward on Monday into parts of the mid-MS/lower Ohio Valleys and Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas. Scattered storms are again expected along/ahead of the front. Some weakening of low/midlevel flow is expected and deep-layer shear will remain modest at best, so the severe threat may remain rather isolated.

Farther west, increasing moisture and instability within a modest west-northwesterly flow regime could result in some severe-storm potential from the central High Plains into the Dakotas.

D6/Tuesday - D8/Thursday

Predictability regarding the upper-level pattern begins to wane by early/mid next week. In general, periodic bouts of severe storms may continue across parts of the central/northern Plains and Upper Midwest, along the periphery of a persistent upper ridge. A less-organized severe threat may also persist near the remnant frontal zone across parts of the Southeast/Carolinas.

..Dean.. 08/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Thursday, August 20

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130906 SPC AC 130906

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

CORRECTED FOR TEXT

DISCUSSION

D4/Sunday

Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are expected to develop in association with a cold front that will move across parts of the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and northern Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. Deep-layer shear is generally forecast to remain weak, but moderate unidirectional westerly flow (potentially 30-40 kt in the 850-500 mb layer) within a favorably moist and unstable environment will support potential for multiple storm clusters with wind-damage potential.

Uncertainty remains regarding frontal timing and the influence (if any) of MCVs emanating from the Plains and Midwest. Also, given the generally weak deep-layer shear, the magnitude of the severe threat will be strongly influenced by the extent of pre-convective heating and steepening of low-level lapse rates. Confidence is too low to add a 15% area at this time, though severe probabilities will likely be needed later in the outlook cycle.

D5/Monday

The front will move southeastward on Monday into parts of the mid-MS/lower Ohio Valleys and Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas. Scattered storms are again expected along/ahead of the front. Some weakening of low/midlevel flow is expected and deep-layer shear will remain modest at best, so the severe threat may remain rather isolated.

Farther west, increasing moisture and instability within a modest west-northwesterly flow regime could result in some severe-storm potential from the central High Plains into the Dakotas.

D6/Tuesday - D8/Thursday

Predictability regarding the upper-level pattern begins to wane by early/mid next week. In general, periodic bouts of severe storms may continue across parts of the central/northern Plains and Upper Midwest, along the periphery of a persistent upper ridge. A less-organized severe threat may also persist near the remnant frontal zone across parts of the Southeast/Carolinas.

..Dean.. 08/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Thursday, August 13

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 15%

Friday, August 14

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 5%

Saturday, August 15

ANY SEVERE: 5%

Sunday, August 16

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Monday, August 17

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Tuesday, August 18

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Wednesday, August 19

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Thursday, August 20

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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