Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, October 24
Outlook Summary
Severe wind/hail and a tornado are possible across portions of New Mexico and far west Texas today.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 241212
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0712 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026
Valid 241300Z - 251200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TX.
### SUMMARY
Severe wind/hail and a tornado are possible across portions of New Mexico and far west Texas today.
NM/Far West TX
Morning water vapor imagery shows an upper low over southwest AZ, and a pronounced shortwave trough in the southeast quadrant of the low over northern Mexico. This feature will rotate northeastward today across southern New Mexico and West TX, aiding in the development of strong/severe storms.
Present indications are that scattered thunderstorms will occur through the day over central/northern NM in advance of the approaching upper trough. Relatively cool air aloft and pockets of daytime heating may result in sufficient destabilization for a risk of a few strong/severe storms capable of hail. This activity will spread northeastward into a progressively less favorable air mass for severe storms by early evening.
Farther south, more abundant sun/heating is expected with temperatures warming into the 80s over southern NM and the Trans Pecos region of TX. Scattered afternoon thunderstorm development is expected - mainly after 18z. Strengthening southeasterly low-level winds and favorable deep-layer shear will be favorable for supercell storm structures capable of large hail and gusty/damaging winds. Forecast hodographs also suggest sufficient low-level shear for a tornado or two if discrete storm mode can be maintained. It appears the main risk will weaken after 01z with the onset of nocturnal cooling.
..Hart/Dean.. 10/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Sunday, October 25
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms, posing mainly a risk for hail, are possible on Sunday across southern/eastern New Mexico and far west Texas.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 240519
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms, posing mainly a risk for hail, are possible on Sunday across southern/eastern New Mexico and far west Texas.
Southern/Eastern NM into Southwest TX
The upper cyclone and attendant trough over UT/AZ early Sunday will weaken as it lifts northeast toward the central Plains through early Monday. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow will persist across portions of the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. At the surface, a stalled surface boundary is forecast from central NM northeastward into the central Plains. Southeasterly low-level flow on the warm side of the boundary will maintain 50s F dewpoints across the region.
Cloudiness and possibly ongoing showers/thunderstorms early in the period lend to uncertainty regarding degree of daytime heating and thus, destabilization. Nevertheless, modest instability is expected amid vertically veering/supercell wind profiles. Elongated hodographs and cool temperatures near -10 to -12 C at 500 mb suggest isolated hail will be possible with strongest storms.
..Leitman.. 10/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Monday, October 26
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to be low on Monday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 240656
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to be low on Monday.
Synopsis
An upper shortwave trough over the central Plains will continue weakening as it lifts northeast to the Upper MS Valley on Monday. Meanwhile, a weak upper shortwave impulse will move across the southern High Plains vicinity and a stronger/deepening upper cyclone/trough will dig over the Intermountain West. At the surface, a cold front will develop southward across the central Plains and Mid-MO Valley. Southerly low-level flow will maintain modest boundary layer moisture across the southern High Plains into the KS/NE ahead of the surface front. Instability is expected to remain weak, and vertical shear will also be weaker than the previous few days. As a result, severe thunderstorm potential appears limited.
..Leitman.. 10/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Tuesday, October 27
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, October 30 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240750 SPC AC 240750
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low during the Day 4-8/Tue-Sat period. An upper shortwave trough will traverse the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Tuesday and Wednesday. As this occurs, a low-amplitude and weak mid/upper flow regime will overspread much of the central/southern Plains toward the eastern U.S. Strong surface high pressure over the East and prior cold frontal passages across parts of the Plains will result in only modest boundary layer moisture beneath the progressive mid-week upper shortwave trough.
Later in the period, upper troughing will deepen across the western U.S. Meanwhile, an amplifying upper ridge is expected across the East, resulting in broad southwesterly mid/upper flow across the Plains. Some modest moisture return could occur across the Plains within the southwesterly flow regime, but any deep moisture is forecast to remain confined across TX and the Gulf Coast. While periods of thunderstorms are possible late in the period across the Plains, overall severe potential is likely to remain limited due to a lack of focused large scale ascent and a modest thermodynamic environment.
..Leitman.. 10/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, October 28
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, October 30 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240750 SPC AC 240750
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low during the Day 4-8/Tue-Sat period. An upper shortwave trough will traverse the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Tuesday and Wednesday. As this occurs, a low-amplitude and weak mid/upper flow regime will overspread much of the central/southern Plains toward the eastern U.S. Strong surface high pressure over the East and prior cold frontal passages across parts of the Plains will result in only modest boundary layer moisture beneath the progressive mid-week upper shortwave trough.
Later in the period, upper troughing will deepen across the western U.S. Meanwhile, an amplifying upper ridge is expected across the East, resulting in broad southwesterly mid/upper flow across the Plains. Some modest moisture return could occur across the Plains within the southwesterly flow regime, but any deep moisture is forecast to remain confined across TX and the Gulf Coast. While periods of thunderstorms are possible late in the period across the Plains, overall severe potential is likely to remain limited due to a lack of focused large scale ascent and a modest thermodynamic environment.
..Leitman.. 10/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, October 29
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, October 30 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240750 SPC AC 240750
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low during the Day 4-8/Tue-Sat period. An upper shortwave trough will traverse the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Tuesday and Wednesday. As this occurs, a low-amplitude and weak mid/upper flow regime will overspread much of the central/southern Plains toward the eastern U.S. Strong surface high pressure over the East and prior cold frontal passages across parts of the Plains will result in only modest boundary layer moisture beneath the progressive mid-week upper shortwave trough.
Later in the period, upper troughing will deepen across the western U.S. Meanwhile, an amplifying upper ridge is expected across the East, resulting in broad southwesterly mid/upper flow across the Plains. Some modest moisture return could occur across the Plains within the southwesterly flow regime, but any deep moisture is forecast to remain confined across TX and the Gulf Coast. While periods of thunderstorms are possible late in the period across the Plains, overall severe potential is likely to remain limited due to a lack of focused large scale ascent and a modest thermodynamic environment.
..Leitman.. 10/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, October 30
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, October 30 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240750 SPC AC 240750
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low during the Day 4-8/Tue-Sat period. An upper shortwave trough will traverse the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Tuesday and Wednesday. As this occurs, a low-amplitude and weak mid/upper flow regime will overspread much of the central/southern Plains toward the eastern U.S. Strong surface high pressure over the East and prior cold frontal passages across parts of the Plains will result in only modest boundary layer moisture beneath the progressive mid-week upper shortwave trough.
Later in the period, upper troughing will deepen across the western U.S. Meanwhile, an amplifying upper ridge is expected across the East, resulting in broad southwesterly mid/upper flow across the Plains. Some modest moisture return could occur across the Plains within the southwesterly flow regime, but any deep moisture is forecast to remain confined across TX and the Gulf Coast. While periods of thunderstorms are possible late in the period across the Plains, overall severe potential is likely to remain limited due to a lack of focused large scale ascent and a modest thermodynamic environment.
..Leitman.. 10/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, October 31
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, October 30 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240750 SPC AC 240750
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low during the Day 4-8/Tue-Sat period. An upper shortwave trough will traverse the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Tuesday and Wednesday. As this occurs, a low-amplitude and weak mid/upper flow regime will overspread much of the central/southern Plains toward the eastern U.S. Strong surface high pressure over the East and prior cold frontal passages across parts of the Plains will result in only modest boundary layer moisture beneath the progressive mid-week upper shortwave trough.
Later in the period, upper troughing will deepen across the western U.S. Meanwhile, an amplifying upper ridge is expected across the East, resulting in broad southwesterly mid/upper flow across the Plains. Some modest moisture return could occur across the Plains within the southwesterly flow regime, but any deep moisture is forecast to remain confined across TX and the Gulf Coast. While periods of thunderstorms are possible late in the period across the Plains, overall severe potential is likely to remain limited due to a lack of focused large scale ascent and a modest thermodynamic environment.
..Leitman.. 10/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, October 24
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Sunday, October 25
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: low
- Monday, October 26
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Tuesday, October 27
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, October 28
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, October 29
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, October 30
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, October 31
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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