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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Tuesday, February 10
Wednesday, February 11
Thursday, February 12
Friday, February 13
Saturday, February 14
Sunday, February 15
Monday, February 16
Tuesday, February 17

Outlook for Tuesday, February 10

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 100533

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 PM CST Mon Feb 09 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

Discussion

Late-evening model guidance continues to suggest a pronounced short-wave trough will approach the CA coast during the latter half of the period as a 500mb speed max translates inland across southern CA. Cooling profiles north of this jet favor steepening lapse rates and weak destabilization such that isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop. Forecast soundings suggest deeper convective updrafts may generate lightning, primarily after 11/00z as weak destabilization is maximized immediately ahead of the short wave/cold front.

Downstream, water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low over the southern Baja Peninsula. This feature is beginning to eject northeast and should advance into the Big Bend/northeast Mexico by late afternoon. Lapse rates will steepen across far west TX ahead of this feature, and high-level diffluent flow aloft will prove favorable for weak convection across this region. Isolated lightning is expected with some of this activity.

..Darrow/Squitieri.. 02/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, February 11

Outlook Summary

No severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 100549

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CST Mon Feb 09 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

No severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday.

Synopsis

Upper ridging will build across much of the central CONUS on Wednesday, limiting thunderstorm potential. Further west, an upper trough/low will develop east/southeast across CA into the Great Basin vicinity. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible beneath upper low, particularly across portions of central CA. Thunderstorm potential should decrease during the nighttime hours with eastward extent as thermodynamic profiles become less favorable.

..Leitman.. 02/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Thursday, February 12

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 100734

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

Synopsis

Upper level ridging will persist across central portions of the CONUS on Thursday. Meanwhile, northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the eastern states and an upper trough will move across CA toward northwest Mexico. Lee low development is forecast across the central/southern High Plains, supporting southerly low-level flow across the western Gulf. Modest moisture will spread across parts of the south-central U.S. in response, mainly after 00z. However, upper ridging and surface high pressure across most of the rest of the CONUS will preclude thunderstorm activity as stable conditions prevail.

..Leitman.. 02/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Friday, February 13

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Friday, February 13 predictability too low
Day 5 Saturday, February 14 predictability too low
Day 6 Sunday, February 15 predictability too low
Day 7 Monday, February 16 potential too low
Day 8 Tuesday, February 17 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100901 SPC AC 100901

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-6/Fri-Sun – TX into the Southeast

An upper trough is forecast to spread eastward from the Southwest into the Southeast Days 4-6/Fri-Sun. Beginning on Day 4/Friday, southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Plains ahead of the trough and surface low pressure is expected to develop over western TX. As the system spreads east through the weekend, Gulf moisture (upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints) will overspread much of central to eastern TX toward the Lower MS Valley and Deep South. Some model spread persists with regards to the timing of eastward progression of the upper trough, and exact latitude of the surface low (some guidance clustering further south, other guidance a bit further north), which will impact quality of moisture return. Regardless, at least weak destabilization should accompany boundary layer moistening and cooling aloft amid strengthening deep-layer southwesterly flow.

Some low-end severe potential is possible from Friday evening through Saturday across portions of TX, and into the Lower MS Valley/Deep South Saturday night through Sunday. However, overall severe potential will likely be limited by weak destabilization, a somewhat cool boundary layer, and questionable moisture return this early in the season, precluding 15 percent severe delineation.

..Leitman.. 02/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, February 14

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Friday, February 13 predictability too low
Day 5 Saturday, February 14 predictability too low
Day 6 Sunday, February 15 predictability too low
Day 7 Monday, February 16 potential too low
Day 8 Tuesday, February 17 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100901 SPC AC 100901

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-6/Fri-Sun – TX into the Southeast

An upper trough is forecast to spread eastward from the Southwest into the Southeast Days 4-6/Fri-Sun. Beginning on Day 4/Friday, southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Plains ahead of the trough and surface low pressure is expected to develop over western TX. As the system spreads east through the weekend, Gulf moisture (upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints) will overspread much of central to eastern TX toward the Lower MS Valley and Deep South. Some model spread persists with regards to the timing of eastward progression of the upper trough, and exact latitude of the surface low (some guidance clustering further south, other guidance a bit further north), which will impact quality of moisture return. Regardless, at least weak destabilization should accompany boundary layer moistening and cooling aloft amid strengthening deep-layer southwesterly flow.

Some low-end severe potential is possible from Friday evening through Saturday across portions of TX, and into the Lower MS Valley/Deep South Saturday night through Sunday. However, overall severe potential will likely be limited by weak destabilization, a somewhat cool boundary layer, and questionable moisture return this early in the season, precluding 15 percent severe delineation.

..Leitman.. 02/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Sunday, February 15

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Friday, February 13 predictability too low
Day 5 Saturday, February 14 predictability too low
Day 6 Sunday, February 15 predictability too low
Day 7 Monday, February 16 potential too low
Day 8 Tuesday, February 17 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100901 SPC AC 100901

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-6/Fri-Sun – TX into the Southeast

An upper trough is forecast to spread eastward from the Southwest into the Southeast Days 4-6/Fri-Sun. Beginning on Day 4/Friday, southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Plains ahead of the trough and surface low pressure is expected to develop over western TX. As the system spreads east through the weekend, Gulf moisture (upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints) will overspread much of central to eastern TX toward the Lower MS Valley and Deep South. Some model spread persists with regards to the timing of eastward progression of the upper trough, and exact latitude of the surface low (some guidance clustering further south, other guidance a bit further north), which will impact quality of moisture return. Regardless, at least weak destabilization should accompany boundary layer moistening and cooling aloft amid strengthening deep-layer southwesterly flow.

Some low-end severe potential is possible from Friday evening through Saturday across portions of TX, and into the Lower MS Valley/Deep South Saturday night through Sunday. However, overall severe potential will likely be limited by weak destabilization, a somewhat cool boundary layer, and questionable moisture return this early in the season, precluding 15 percent severe delineation.

..Leitman.. 02/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Monday, February 16

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Friday, February 13 predictability too low
Day 5 Saturday, February 14 predictability too low
Day 6 Sunday, February 15 predictability too low
Day 7 Monday, February 16 potential too low
Day 8 Tuesday, February 17 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100901 SPC AC 100901

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-6/Fri-Sun – TX into the Southeast

An upper trough is forecast to spread eastward from the Southwest into the Southeast Days 4-6/Fri-Sun. Beginning on Day 4/Friday, southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Plains ahead of the trough and surface low pressure is expected to develop over western TX. As the system spreads east through the weekend, Gulf moisture (upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints) will overspread much of central to eastern TX toward the Lower MS Valley and Deep South. Some model spread persists with regards to the timing of eastward progression of the upper trough, and exact latitude of the surface low (some guidance clustering further south, other guidance a bit further north), which will impact quality of moisture return. Regardless, at least weak destabilization should accompany boundary layer moistening and cooling aloft amid strengthening deep-layer southwesterly flow.

Some low-end severe potential is possible from Friday evening through Saturday across portions of TX, and into the Lower MS Valley/Deep South Saturday night through Sunday. However, overall severe potential will likely be limited by weak destabilization, a somewhat cool boundary layer, and questionable moisture return this early in the season, precluding 15 percent severe delineation.

..Leitman.. 02/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Tuesday, February 17

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Friday, February 13 predictability too low
Day 5 Saturday, February 14 predictability too low
Day 6 Sunday, February 15 predictability too low
Day 7 Monday, February 16 potential too low
Day 8 Tuesday, February 17 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100901 SPC AC 100901

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-6/Fri-Sun – TX into the Southeast

An upper trough is forecast to spread eastward from the Southwest into the Southeast Days 4-6/Fri-Sun. Beginning on Day 4/Friday, southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Plains ahead of the trough and surface low pressure is expected to develop over western TX. As the system spreads east through the weekend, Gulf moisture (upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints) will overspread much of central to eastern TX toward the Lower MS Valley and Deep South. Some model spread persists with regards to the timing of eastward progression of the upper trough, and exact latitude of the surface low (some guidance clustering further south, other guidance a bit further north), which will impact quality of moisture return. Regardless, at least weak destabilization should accompany boundary layer moistening and cooling aloft amid strengthening deep-layer southwesterly flow.

Some low-end severe potential is possible from Friday evening through Saturday across portions of TX, and into the Lower MS Valley/Deep South Saturday night through Sunday. However, overall severe potential will likely be limited by weak destabilization, a somewhat cool boundary layer, and questionable moisture return this early in the season, precluding 15 percent severe delineation.

..Leitman.. 02/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, February 10
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: low
Wednesday, February 11
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: low
Thursday, February 12
ANY SEVERE: low
Friday, February 13
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, February 14
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, February 15
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, February 16
ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, February 17
ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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