Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, September 10
Outlook Summary
Sporadic damaging wind gusts appear possible from the southern Plains to the southern Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday afternoon and evening. Isolated occurrences of large hail may occur over portions of south-central Colorado into northeast New Mexico and perhaps portions of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles Thursday afternoon and evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 100536
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST
### SUMMARY
Sporadic damaging wind gusts appear possible from the southern Plains to the southern Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday afternoon and evening. Isolated occurrences of large hail may occur over portions of south-central Colorado into northeast New Mexico and perhaps portions of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles Thursday afternoon and evening.
Synopsis
A short-wave trough initially over the upper MS and mid MO Valleys Thursday morning will continue east into the Great Lakes and OH Valley with a preceding belt of enhanced mid-level flow extending into the Mid-Atlantic. Elsewhere, a vorticity maximum (possible MCV) is forecast to progress from western KS into the Ozark Plateau by Thursday night. At the surface, a cool front is expected to advance through the Mid-Atlantic during the forecast period with the western extension of the boundary settling more slowly south through the OH Valley, Ozark Plateau, and southern Plains. The location of the surface front is likely to be modulated by clusters of thunderstorms that are expected to be ongoing Thursday morning from portions of the OH Valley into the southern Plains.
### Southern Plains to the southern Mid-Atlantic coast
To the south of residual cloudiness and lingering showers and thunderstorms, a hot air mass is expected to develop by afternoon with temperatures well into the 90s to around 100 F over the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley, and upper 80s to mid 90s from the TN Valley to Mid-Atlantic. While mid-level lapse rates will remain generally less than 7 C/km, the daytime heating coupled with dewpoints in the 60s to low/mid 70s will yield a moderately unstable air mass by afternoon with MLCAPE ranging from 1500-2500+ J/kg.
The 00Z models indicate a gradual increase in thunderstorm coverage and intensity through the afternoon, aided by forcing for ascent associated with the mid-level disturbances mentioned in the synopsis, as well as convergence along the synoptic front and any existing outflow boundaries. The strongest mid/upper-level wind field and resultant vertical shear are expected to largely remain to the north of the effective warm sector. However, 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear is forecast along the front over portions of the OH Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic, where some storm organization appears possible with the primary hazard being damaging wind gusts. Vertical shear will diminish with southwestward extent from the TN Valley into the OK-TX Red River Valley; however, the presence of a relatively deep, well-mixed boundary layer will be supportive of sporadic damaging winds with isolated severe gusts.
### Raton Mesa Vicinity
Upslope flow of a moist boundary layer beneath mid-level lapse rates of 7-8 C/km will yield moderate afternoon instability with MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated by mid afternoon along the high terrain amidst a vertically veering wind profile with up to 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear. The given environment will be supportive of multicell and supercell storm modes with an associated risk for large hail.
..Mead/Chalmers.. 09/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Friday, September 11
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of Nebraska to the Upper Midwest late Friday afternoon into Friday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 30%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 100538
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of Nebraska to the Upper Midwest late Friday afternoon into Friday night.
Nebraska/eastern Dakotas/Minnesota/Wisconsin
An upper shortwave trough will move across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced southwesterly flow will overspread the region, particularly from the Dakotas into MN/WI. Cooling aloft will also support steepening midlevel lapse rates atop a moistening boundary layer in which increasing southerly low-level flow will transport 60s dewpoints northward across the region. A surface low is forecast to develop and shift east across SD, with a surface cold front shifting southeast through period. This front will be oriented from northeast to southwest from northwest MN/eastern ND into central SD near the surface low by mid to late afternoon. A dryline will extend southward from the surface low over central SD through central NE. Corridors of moderate instability are forecast along/ahead of the front, and thunderstorm development is expected by late afternoon/early evening across northern MN.
Vertically veering wind profiles will support initial supercell storms capable of all hazards, including damaging wind, large hail, and a couple of tornadoes. Some hail greater than 2 inch diameter is possible if supercell mode can be maintained. Given strong linear ascent along the surface boundary, and an increasing southwesterly low-level jet during the evening, initial supercells are likely to cluster and/or grow upscale into line of convection spreading east/northeast through the nighttime hours.
Convective coverage is a bit more uncertain, and overall severe potential more conditional, with southward extent into eastern SD/IA and central NE. Large-scale ascent will be weaker further south, and this could be problematic for overcoming inhibition from warmer 850-700 mb temperatures, especially through early evening. As the surface cold front overtakes the dryline in NE overnight, elevated convection could develop within a low-level warm advection regime. Whether storms develop during the early evening or overnight, some severe risk from damaging gusts and hail will be possible.
..Leitman.. 09/10/2026
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Saturday, September 12
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across parts of Kansas into southern Iowa and northern Missouri.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 100625
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across parts of Kansas into southern Iowa and northern Missouri.
Central Plains to southern IA/northern MO
Broad upper troughing will overspread the Great Lakes to the Northeast while shortwave upper ridging develops over the high Plains ahead of another upper trough moving into the Northwest. This pattern is will keep any stronger westerly flow aloft across the northern tier of the U.S. However, a cold front is expected to extend from the western Great Lakes into northern KS by midday. The front will gradually move south/southeast across IA into northern MO, while the western extent of the boundary stalls and weakens over KS. A very moist airmass will be in place ahead of the surface boundary from KS into the Mid-MS Valley while a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates spread eastward across the region. This will result in a corridor of moderate to strong instability from central KS into southern IA/northern MO. Vertical shear will be modest, but sufficient for at least transient organized convection. Hail and strong wind gusts will be possible with any storms that can develop within the weakly forced regime along the front. Some guidance suggests additional convection may develop along the stalled boundary across KS during the nighttime hours as a southwesterly low-level jet increases. If this occurs, some potential for MCS development will exist.
..Leitman.. 09/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Sunday, September 13
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, September 12 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Sunday, September 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, September 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, September 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, September 16 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090727 SPC AC 090727
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Wed Sep 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Sat - Central Plains
A cold front will stall across the central Plains on Saturday. Low-level east/southeasterly flow will maintain rich boundary layer moisture across KS and into eastern CO. Early day convection may be ongoing in the vicinity of the stalled boundary within the low-level warm advection regime. It is uncertain if airmass recovery and renewed thunderstorm development will occur within the unstable warm sector given nebulous large-scale ascent and modest vertical shear. While low severe potential may eventually evolve, probability appears less than 15 percent at this time.
Days 5-6/Sun-Mon – Central Plains to the Great Lakes
An upper trough is forecast to move from the northern Rockies to the Great Lakes through early Day 7/Tuesday. This will bring enhanced southwesterly flow to portions of the northern/central Plains into the Great Lakes, particularly on Monday. With the approach of the trough, lee low development is forecast across the northern/central High Plains on Sunday. Increasing southerly low-level flow will transport moisture northward to NE/SD ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front. This could support some severe risk across parts of the northern/central Plains and Mid-MO Valley vicinity on Sunday. However, large spread exists among forecast guidance with regards to the surface low placement, northward extent of moisture return, and frontal position. As a result, corridors of greater severe potential are uncertain on Sunday.
As the upper trough continues to lift east/northeast through the Great Lakes on Monday, severe potential could develop eastward into parts of the Mid/Upper MS Valley and upper Great Lakes vicinity. Stronger deep-layer flow may become displaced to the north of better instability, and similarly large model spread continues into this time frame. Depending on trends, severe probabilities could eventually be needed for Sunday and/or Monday.
Days 7-8/Tue-Wed
Lower amplitude, quasi-zonal flow is expected to develop by the end of the forecast period as the early-week uppers shortwave trough lifts into eastern Canada and the sub-tropical high begins to rebuild over the southern U.S. This should largely limit severe potential, though abundant moisture will reside from the southern Plains into the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic and daily sporadic strong storms could still occur.
..Leitman.. 09/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, September 14
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, September 12 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Sunday, September 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, September 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, September 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, September 16 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090727 SPC AC 090727
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Wed Sep 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Sat - Central Plains
A cold front will stall across the central Plains on Saturday. Low-level east/southeasterly flow will maintain rich boundary layer moisture across KS and into eastern CO. Early day convection may be ongoing in the vicinity of the stalled boundary within the low-level warm advection regime. It is uncertain if airmass recovery and renewed thunderstorm development will occur within the unstable warm sector given nebulous large-scale ascent and modest vertical shear. While low severe potential may eventually evolve, probability appears less than 15 percent at this time.
Days 5-6/Sun-Mon – Central Plains to the Great Lakes
An upper trough is forecast to move from the northern Rockies to the Great Lakes through early Day 7/Tuesday. This will bring enhanced southwesterly flow to portions of the northern/central Plains into the Great Lakes, particularly on Monday. With the approach of the trough, lee low development is forecast across the northern/central High Plains on Sunday. Increasing southerly low-level flow will transport moisture northward to NE/SD ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front. This could support some severe risk across parts of the northern/central Plains and Mid-MO Valley vicinity on Sunday. However, large spread exists among forecast guidance with regards to the surface low placement, northward extent of moisture return, and frontal position. As a result, corridors of greater severe potential are uncertain on Sunday.
As the upper trough continues to lift east/northeast through the Great Lakes on Monday, severe potential could develop eastward into parts of the Mid/Upper MS Valley and upper Great Lakes vicinity. Stronger deep-layer flow may become displaced to the north of better instability, and similarly large model spread continues into this time frame. Depending on trends, severe probabilities could eventually be needed for Sunday and/or Monday.
Days 7-8/Tue-Wed
Lower amplitude, quasi-zonal flow is expected to develop by the end of the forecast period as the early-week uppers shortwave trough lifts into eastern Canada and the sub-tropical high begins to rebuild over the southern U.S. This should largely limit severe potential, though abundant moisture will reside from the southern Plains into the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic and daily sporadic strong storms could still occur.
..Leitman.. 09/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, September 15
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, September 12 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Sunday, September 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, September 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, September 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, September 16 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090727 SPC AC 090727
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Wed Sep 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Sat - Central Plains
A cold front will stall across the central Plains on Saturday. Low-level east/southeasterly flow will maintain rich boundary layer moisture across KS and into eastern CO. Early day convection may be ongoing in the vicinity of the stalled boundary within the low-level warm advection regime. It is uncertain if airmass recovery and renewed thunderstorm development will occur within the unstable warm sector given nebulous large-scale ascent and modest vertical shear. While low severe potential may eventually evolve, probability appears less than 15 percent at this time.
Days 5-6/Sun-Mon – Central Plains to the Great Lakes
An upper trough is forecast to move from the northern Rockies to the Great Lakes through early Day 7/Tuesday. This will bring enhanced southwesterly flow to portions of the northern/central Plains into the Great Lakes, particularly on Monday. With the approach of the trough, lee low development is forecast across the northern/central High Plains on Sunday. Increasing southerly low-level flow will transport moisture northward to NE/SD ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front. This could support some severe risk across parts of the northern/central Plains and Mid-MO Valley vicinity on Sunday. However, large spread exists among forecast guidance with regards to the surface low placement, northward extent of moisture return, and frontal position. As a result, corridors of greater severe potential are uncertain on Sunday.
As the upper trough continues to lift east/northeast through the Great Lakes on Monday, severe potential could develop eastward into parts of the Mid/Upper MS Valley and upper Great Lakes vicinity. Stronger deep-layer flow may become displaced to the north of better instability, and similarly large model spread continues into this time frame. Depending on trends, severe probabilities could eventually be needed for Sunday and/or Monday.
Days 7-8/Tue-Wed
Lower amplitude, quasi-zonal flow is expected to develop by the end of the forecast period as the early-week uppers shortwave trough lifts into eastern Canada and the sub-tropical high begins to rebuild over the southern U.S. This should largely limit severe potential, though abundant moisture will reside from the southern Plains into the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic and daily sporadic strong storms could still occur.
..Leitman.. 09/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, September 16
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, September 12 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Sunday, September 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, September 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, September 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, September 16 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090727 SPC AC 090727
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Wed Sep 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Sat - Central Plains
A cold front will stall across the central Plains on Saturday. Low-level east/southeasterly flow will maintain rich boundary layer moisture across KS and into eastern CO. Early day convection may be ongoing in the vicinity of the stalled boundary within the low-level warm advection regime. It is uncertain if airmass recovery and renewed thunderstorm development will occur within the unstable warm sector given nebulous large-scale ascent and modest vertical shear. While low severe potential may eventually evolve, probability appears less than 15 percent at this time.
Days 5-6/Sun-Mon – Central Plains to the Great Lakes
An upper trough is forecast to move from the northern Rockies to the Great Lakes through early Day 7/Tuesday. This will bring enhanced southwesterly flow to portions of the northern/central Plains into the Great Lakes, particularly on Monday. With the approach of the trough, lee low development is forecast across the northern/central High Plains on Sunday. Increasing southerly low-level flow will transport moisture northward to NE/SD ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front. This could support some severe risk across parts of the northern/central Plains and Mid-MO Valley vicinity on Sunday. However, large spread exists among forecast guidance with regards to the surface low placement, northward extent of moisture return, and frontal position. As a result, corridors of greater severe potential are uncertain on Sunday.
As the upper trough continues to lift east/northeast through the Great Lakes on Monday, severe potential could develop eastward into parts of the Mid/Upper MS Valley and upper Great Lakes vicinity. Stronger deep-layer flow may become displaced to the north of better instability, and similarly large model spread continues into this time frame. Depending on trends, severe probabilities could eventually be needed for Sunday and/or Monday.
Days 7-8/Tue-Wed
Lower amplitude, quasi-zonal flow is expected to develop by the end of the forecast period as the early-week uppers shortwave trough lifts into eastern Canada and the sub-tropical high begins to rebuild over the southern U.S. This should largely limit severe potential, though abundant moisture will reside from the southern Plains into the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic and daily sporadic strong storms could still occur.
..Leitman.. 09/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, September 10
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Friday, September 11
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 30%
- Saturday, September 12
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Sunday, September 13
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, September 14
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, September 15
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, September 16
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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