Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, January 24
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 240522
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today.
Northwest/North Central Gulf Coast
Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low off the Baja Peninsula. This feature is forecast to eject across the central Baja around mid day as a 500mb speed max rounds the base of the trough, then ejects into northeast Mexico by 25/06z. In response to this speed max, a weak surface low should develop along the polar front over the northwest Gulf basin, then lift northeast across southeast LA into southern MS late in the period. Latest model guidance suggests modified Gulf air mass will return to the northern Gulf coast ahead of this weak surface low, but forecast soundings depict a boundary layer that most likely will not recover adequately for surface-based convection. While MUCAPE will increase ahead of the front, any thunderstorms that form will likely be at least slightly elevated in nature.
Early in the period there is some concern for a few robust thunderstorms near the TX Gulf coast. However, polar front will surge offshore near the start of the day1 and the primary concern for organized storms will be quickly shunted southeast off the coast. At this time the probability for severe thunderstorms appears too low to warrant a MRGL Risk.
..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Sunday, January 25
Outlook Summary
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the eastern Gulf Coast states Sunday into Sunday night. Damaging gusts are expected to be the primary risk.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 240713
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST
CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC ERROR
SUMMARY
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the eastern Gulf Coast states Sunday into Sunday night. Damaging gusts are expected to be the primary risk.
Synopsis
A broad positively tilted larger-scale mid-level trough over the central US is forecast to intensify Sunday as it moves eastward and absorbs several smaller perturbations ejecting from the Rockies and western CONUS. The most prominent of these smaller-scale features will move from the Sabine Valley and central Gulf Coast, northeastward into the Tennessee Valley and central Appalachians by Monday night. Amplification of the overall trough and southwesterly cyclonic flow aloft will support the development of a weak surface low ahead of the cold front moving into the Southeast. Southerly flow ahead of this low will result in modest modification inland of a remnant Gulf air mass south of a large Arctic intrusion/cold air damming. Weak buoyancy and strong forcing will likely support a band of thunderstorms with the potential for some strong/severe storms through parts of the eastern Gulf Coast Sunday afternoon.
Eastern Gulf Coast States
Gradual destabilization is expected early Sunday first over southern LA and MS as the surface low and warm front lift northward. Strong isentropic ascent over the shallow Arctic air mass will likely support a band of initially elevated convection from portions of East TX into southern LA and MS gradually spreading eastward. With time, these storms will encounter the northward advancing modified warm sector as the cold front impinges on the western edge of the moisture return through the day.
Weak destabilization peaking around 500-750 J/kg of MLCAPE will overlap with strong deep-layer shear of 50-60 kt. This will allow for some intensification/organization of the ongoing storms where the near surface air mass can destabilize. Likely linear in nature owing to the strong frontal forcing, a few stronger segments appear plausible, especially across southeastern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into southwestern Georgia late Sunday afternoon and evening. Damaging gusts would be primary risk given 50-70 kt flow in the lowest 1-3 km AGL. A brief QLCS tornado is also possible, but less certain as the low-level wind field gradually veers through the day as the main ascent lifts away to the north.
..Lyons.. 01/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Monday, January 26
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms appear unlikely Monday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 240830
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms appear unlikely Monday.
Synopsis
Mid-level troughing and strong cyclonic flow aloft will shift southward over the US before gradually moving offshore Monday. A second trough is expected to move south out of Canada into the Great Lakes as it also intensifies. The mid-level flow pattern is forecast to continue to amplify with troughing persisting over the eastern US. In turn, ridging is forecast to build over the central and western portions of the country with increasingly strong northwesterly flow.
At the surface, a robust and widespread Arctic air mass with strong high pressure will dominate the lower 48 as a cold front moves offshore into the Atlantic and down the FL Peninsula. Widespread winter weather and cold temperatures will largely preclude robust inland surface moisture outside of coastal south FL. However, weak lapse rates and only glancing ascent suggests thunderstorm potential here is low. Thus, thunderstorms and severe weather appear unlikely over the US on Monday.
..Lyons.. 01/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Tuesday, January 27
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, January 27 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, January 28 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, January 29 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, January 30 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, January 31 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240956 SPC AC 240956
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
Amplified mid-level flow will persist over the US through the remainder of the extended forecast period. Continued troughing in the eastern US will be supported by the arrival of multiple perturbations from southern Canada over the next week. At the same time, strong ridging developing over the West will favor northwesterly flow aloft over the central States. This will allow for multiple reinforcing surges of cold air to replenish a cold, dry and stable air mass. Thus, severe thunderstorms are unlikely through day 8.
..Lyons.. 01/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, January 28
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, January 27 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, January 28 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, January 29 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, January 30 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, January 31 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240956 SPC AC 240956
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
Amplified mid-level flow will persist over the US through the remainder of the extended forecast period. Continued troughing in the eastern US will be supported by the arrival of multiple perturbations from southern Canada over the next week. At the same time, strong ridging developing over the West will favor northwesterly flow aloft over the central States. This will allow for multiple reinforcing surges of cold air to replenish a cold, dry and stable air mass. Thus, severe thunderstorms are unlikely through day 8.
..Lyons.. 01/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, January 29
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, January 27 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, January 28 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, January 29 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, January 30 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, January 31 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240956 SPC AC 240956
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
Amplified mid-level flow will persist over the US through the remainder of the extended forecast period. Continued troughing in the eastern US will be supported by the arrival of multiple perturbations from southern Canada over the next week. At the same time, strong ridging developing over the West will favor northwesterly flow aloft over the central States. This will allow for multiple reinforcing surges of cold air to replenish a cold, dry and stable air mass. Thus, severe thunderstorms are unlikely through day 8.
..Lyons.. 01/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, January 30
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, January 27 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, January 28 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, January 29 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, January 30 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, January 31 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240956 SPC AC 240956
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
Amplified mid-level flow will persist over the US through the remainder of the extended forecast period. Continued troughing in the eastern US will be supported by the arrival of multiple perturbations from southern Canada over the next week. At the same time, strong ridging developing over the West will favor northwesterly flow aloft over the central States. This will allow for multiple reinforcing surges of cold air to replenish a cold, dry and stable air mass. Thus, severe thunderstorms are unlikely through day 8.
..Lyons.. 01/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, January 31
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, January 27 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, January 28 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, January 29 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, January 30 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, January 31 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240956 SPC AC 240956
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
Amplified mid-level flow will persist over the US through the remainder of the extended forecast period. Continued troughing in the eastern US will be supported by the arrival of multiple perturbations from southern Canada over the next week. At the same time, strong ridging developing over the West will favor northwesterly flow aloft over the central States. This will allow for multiple reinforcing surges of cold air to replenish a cold, dry and stable air mass. Thus, severe thunderstorms are unlikely through day 8.
..Lyons.. 01/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, January 24
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Sunday, January 25
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Monday, January 26
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Tuesday, January 27
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, January 28
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, January 29
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, January 30
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, January 31
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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