Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are expected today and tonight from the southern Plains to the southern Great Lakes vicinity. All severe hazards are likely, including the risk for multiple strong to intense tornadoes, damaging winds, and very large hail.

Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Tuesday, March 10

Wednesday, March 11

Thursday, March 12

Friday, March 13

Saturday, March 14

Sunday, March 15

Monday, March 16

Tuesday, March 17

Outlook for Tuesday, March 10

Outlook Summary

Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are expected tonight from the southern Plains to the southern Great Lakes vicinity. All severe hazards are likely, including the risk for multiple strong to intense tornadoes, damaging winds, and very large hail.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 15%

wind 30%

hail 30%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 110034

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Valid 110100Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA

### SUMMARY

Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are expected tonight from the southern Plains to the southern Great Lakes vicinity. All severe hazards are likely, including the risk for multiple strong to intense tornadoes, damaging winds, and very large hail.

01z Update

Large reservoir of MLCAPE on the order of 2500 J/kg extends across the southern Plains through the mid MS Valley into northwest Indiana. Latest surface analysis depicts a weak surface low near the IA/MO/IL border, lifting northeast in line with earlier model guidance. A very sharp warm front extends across northern IL into lower MI and this will serve as the demarcation for surface-based convection through sunrise.

Scattered supercells have developed along and just south of the warm front, immediately ahead of the surface low. This aligns with earlier thoughts regarding the prospect for potentially strong tornadoes along with very large hail. 00z sounding from ILX strongly supports this with very steep lapse rates and strong instability. Additionally, 0-3km SRH is on the order of 300 m2/s2. This activity will spread/develop east/northeast along/near the warm front, as currently depicted by the Moderate Risk.

Farther southwest across the central Plains, isolated severe supercells are developing along the cold front across northwest MO-south central KS. These storms should gradually increase in areal coverage later this evening as they advance downstream as LLJ is forecast to increase across eastern OK into central MO.

Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low over northeast Mexico/far west TX. This feature is beginning to open up as it ejects northeast. Leading edge of large-scale ascent has overspread the dry line, and earlier supercell activity is beginning to evolve into a linear MCS from the Edwards Plateau into portions of northwest TX. This activity should continue to grow upscale as it spreads downstream, as strengthening LLJ across central TX will support ongoing organization. 00z soundings from both FWD and OUN exhibit very steep lapse rates, strong 0-6km shear, and strong instability and this strongly suggests the potential for longer-lived supercells and QLCS.

..Darrow.. 03/11/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, March 11

Outlook Summary

Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday from the ArkLaTex and Lower Mississippi Valley northeastward through the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 5%

wind 30%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 101728

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC

### SUMMARY

Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday from the ArkLaTex and Lower Mississippi Valley northeastward through the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic.

Synopsis

Another day of scattered severe weather is anticipated for Wednesday. Two upper waves - evident in early-afternoon water-vapor imagery over the northern Rockies and northern Mexico - will traverse eastward over the next 24 hours. Substantial amplification of the northern wave is expected as it migrates into the upper OH Valley through the day. Strong broad-scale ascent ahead of the wave and within the left-exit region of a strengthening upper jet will promote steady intensification of a surface cyclone as it progresses from the Great Lakes into southeastern Quebec by Thursday morning.

A broad fetch of southerly flow will support poleward moisture return as far north as the upper OH Valley by Wednesday afternoon. A trailing cold front attendant to the surface low will push east/southeast through the day, reaching the Mid-Atlantic and northern Gulf Coast by 12 UTC Thursday. Strong to severe thunderstorm chances will be focused along and ahead of this front through the day as it pushes east/southeast.

Upper OH Valley

A corridor of higher severe wind, and perhaps tornado, potential may emerge across OH into parts of WV and western PA Wednesday morning into the afternoon hours. Latest guidance shows reasonably good agreement in a swath of pre-frontal 40-50 knot flow within the lowest kilometer overspreading the upper OH Valley. Within this strong flow field, guidance also depicts a pronounced plume of higher theta-e values advecting northward along the western Appalachians. The intersection of the strong flow with subtle low-level warm advection will likely support a corridor of regionally higher buoyancy and enhanced effective SRH (on the order of 200-300 m2/s2) favorable for well-organized convection, including supercells.

The primary uncertainty pertains to antecedent storm coverage across the region during the morning hours. Residual convection from late Tuesday night will likely linger over the mid/upper OH Valley, though guidance shows some uncertainty regarding coverage and intensity of this activity. Sparse storm coverage should help maximize diurnal destabilization and will support a more robust severe threat. Greater coverage of morning convection will act to modulate the thermodynamic environment by muting the influence of daytime heating and the northward extent of richer moisture. Regardless, updraft/UH signals in CAM ensembles and recent calibrated guidance depict a corridor of stronger convection across far eastern IN into OH, WV, and southwest PA. Increased wind probabilities (30%) have been introduced across this corridor where one or more rounds of storms within a strong flow field will pose a threat for damaging/severe winds. Higher risk categories may be needed if morning storm coverage is minimal and a more potent thermodynamic environment emerges.

Lower MS Valley

One or more broken bands of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing ahead of a Pacific front across the greater Texarkana region Wednesday morning. While some modulation in convective intensity is anticipated during the morning hours, continued lift ahead of the southern stream upper wave through peak heating will promote a re-intensification of thunderstorms by early afternoon. Southerly flow through a deep layer will promote along-boundary storm motions and maintain a linear storm mode through the day. An increase in storm coverage is anticipated through the lower MS Valley as the primary synoptic cold front pushes into the region by late afternoon. While low to mid-level flow fields are expected to weaken by early evening as the synoptic low accelerates away to the northeast, adequate shear will likely be in place during the afternoon hours to support organized segments capable of severe gusts and embedded circulations.

Latest guidance continues to hint at the potential for discrete, pre-line convection across eastern LA into southern and central MS as heating and modest ascent erodes weak capping within the warm sector. Kinematic profiles - characterized by 40 knots of effective bulk shear and 100-150 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH - will support supercells capable of all hazards, though coverage and longevity of supercells remains uncertain given disparity between 12z CAM solutions and modest signals in calibrated guidance.

..Moore.. 03/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Thursday, March 12

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 101912

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

Synopsis

An amplifying upper wave will continue to translate eastward across the eastern CONUS through the day Thursday before moving off the Atlantic Coast by late evening. At the surface, an attendant cyclone will continue to drift north/northeast into eastern Quebec as it begins to occlude. A trailing cold front will start the forecast period draped from the Northeast into the Southeast states, and is forecast to gradually shift east through the day before moving off the East Coast and stalling across the FL peninsula as broad-scale ascent weakens. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along the front at the start of the period across portions of southeastern AL, western GA, and the FL Panhandle. Lingering 40-50 knot mid-level flow may support a few organized thunderstorms during the morning hours - mainly along the I-10 corridor. However, it is unclear how intense this activity will be given linear/clustered storm modes and a marginal thermodynamic environment during the diurnal buoyancy minimum. Regardless, steady weakening is anticipated through the day as convection drifts into an environment with decreasing mid-level lapse rates and diminishing forcing for ascent.

Across the northern High Plains, cold mid-level temperatures associated with a clipper low may support pockets of sufficient instability for lightning production. Steep low-level lapse rates and strong flow within the lowest kilometer may support a few stronger gusts, but the overall thermodynamic environment appears too limited for risk probabilities at this time.

..Moore.. 03/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Friday, March 13

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Friday, March 13	potential too low
Day 5	Saturday, March 14	potential too low
Day 6	Sunday, March 15	predictability too low
Day 7	Monday, March 16	predictability too low
Day 8	Tuesday, March 17	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100747 SPC AC 100747

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

Severe thunderstorm potential will remain low on Days 4-5/Fri-Sat as a cold frontal passage and surface high pressure over the central U.S. leave a dry/stable airmass across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies.

On Saturday, lower-amplitude, quasi-zonal flow over much of the U.S. will amplify as a shortwave upper trough deepens over the Rockies and emerges over the High Plains by Day 6/Sunday morning. As this occurs, modest Gulf moisture will return northward across east TX into the Mid-South. A strong surface low is forecast to move across the Upper Midwest on Sunday as the upper trough continues to dig and shift east into the Midwest. This will bring a cold front southeast across portions of the Plains and Midwest. Some severe potential could develop across central portions of the U.S. on Day 6/Sunday as the cold front sweeps eastward, but confidence is low given a lack of deeper moisture return overlapping with stronger shear across the Midwest.

As the upper trough and surface cold front continue east on Day 7/Monday, some low-end severe potential could possibly develop across the Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast, but confidence is low given similar concerns to those on Day 6/Sunday. With this system moving offshore by the end of the period, severe potential appears low on Day 8/Tuesday.

..Leitman.. 03/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, March 14

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Friday, March 13	potential too low
Day 5	Saturday, March 14	potential too low
Day 6	Sunday, March 15	predictability too low
Day 7	Monday, March 16	predictability too low
Day 8	Tuesday, March 17	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100747 SPC AC 100747

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

Severe thunderstorm potential will remain low on Days 4-5/Fri-Sat as a cold frontal passage and surface high pressure over the central U.S. leave a dry/stable airmass across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies.

On Saturday, lower-amplitude, quasi-zonal flow over much of the U.S. will amplify as a shortwave upper trough deepens over the Rockies and emerges over the High Plains by Day 6/Sunday morning. As this occurs, modest Gulf moisture will return northward across east TX into the Mid-South. A strong surface low is forecast to move across the Upper Midwest on Sunday as the upper trough continues to dig and shift east into the Midwest. This will bring a cold front southeast across portions of the Plains and Midwest. Some severe potential could develop across central portions of the U.S. on Day 6/Sunday as the cold front sweeps eastward, but confidence is low given a lack of deeper moisture return overlapping with stronger shear across the Midwest.

As the upper trough and surface cold front continue east on Day 7/Monday, some low-end severe potential could possibly develop across the Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast, but confidence is low given similar concerns to those on Day 6/Sunday. With this system moving offshore by the end of the period, severe potential appears low on Day 8/Tuesday.

..Leitman.. 03/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, March 15

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Friday, March 13	potential too low
Day 5	Saturday, March 14	potential too low
Day 6	Sunday, March 15	predictability too low
Day 7	Monday, March 16	predictability too low
Day 8	Tuesday, March 17	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100747 SPC AC 100747

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

Severe thunderstorm potential will remain low on Days 4-5/Fri-Sat as a cold frontal passage and surface high pressure over the central U.S. leave a dry/stable airmass across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies.

On Saturday, lower-amplitude, quasi-zonal flow over much of the U.S. will amplify as a shortwave upper trough deepens over the Rockies and emerges over the High Plains by Day 6/Sunday morning. As this occurs, modest Gulf moisture will return northward across east TX into the Mid-South. A strong surface low is forecast to move across the Upper Midwest on Sunday as the upper trough continues to dig and shift east into the Midwest. This will bring a cold front southeast across portions of the Plains and Midwest. Some severe potential could develop across central portions of the U.S. on Day 6/Sunday as the cold front sweeps eastward, but confidence is low given a lack of deeper moisture return overlapping with stronger shear across the Midwest.

As the upper trough and surface cold front continue east on Day 7/Monday, some low-end severe potential could possibly develop across the Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast, but confidence is low given similar concerns to those on Day 6/Sunday. With this system moving offshore by the end of the period, severe potential appears low on Day 8/Tuesday.

..Leitman.. 03/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Monday, March 16

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Friday, March 13	potential too low
Day 5	Saturday, March 14	potential too low
Day 6	Sunday, March 15	predictability too low
Day 7	Monday, March 16	predictability too low
Day 8	Tuesday, March 17	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100747 SPC AC 100747

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

Severe thunderstorm potential will remain low on Days 4-5/Fri-Sat as a cold frontal passage and surface high pressure over the central U.S. leave a dry/stable airmass across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies.

On Saturday, lower-amplitude, quasi-zonal flow over much of the U.S. will amplify as a shortwave upper trough deepens over the Rockies and emerges over the High Plains by Day 6/Sunday morning. As this occurs, modest Gulf moisture will return northward across east TX into the Mid-South. A strong surface low is forecast to move across the Upper Midwest on Sunday as the upper trough continues to dig and shift east into the Midwest. This will bring a cold front southeast across portions of the Plains and Midwest. Some severe potential could develop across central portions of the U.S. on Day 6/Sunday as the cold front sweeps eastward, but confidence is low given a lack of deeper moisture return overlapping with stronger shear across the Midwest.

As the upper trough and surface cold front continue east on Day 7/Monday, some low-end severe potential could possibly develop across the Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast, but confidence is low given similar concerns to those on Day 6/Sunday. With this system moving offshore by the end of the period, severe potential appears low on Day 8/Tuesday.

..Leitman.. 03/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Tuesday, March 17

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Friday, March 13	potential too low
Day 5	Saturday, March 14	potential too low
Day 6	Sunday, March 15	predictability too low
Day 7	Monday, March 16	predictability too low
Day 8	Tuesday, March 17	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100747 SPC AC 100747

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

Severe thunderstorm potential will remain low on Days 4-5/Fri-Sat as a cold frontal passage and surface high pressure over the central U.S. leave a dry/stable airmass across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies.

On Saturday, lower-amplitude, quasi-zonal flow over much of the U.S. will amplify as a shortwave upper trough deepens over the Rockies and emerges over the High Plains by Day 6/Sunday morning. As this occurs, modest Gulf moisture will return northward across east TX into the Mid-South. A strong surface low is forecast to move across the Upper Midwest on Sunday as the upper trough continues to dig and shift east into the Midwest. This will bring a cold front southeast across portions of the Plains and Midwest. Some severe potential could develop across central portions of the U.S. on Day 6/Sunday as the cold front sweeps eastward, but confidence is low given a lack of deeper moisture return overlapping with stronger shear across the Midwest.

As the upper trough and surface cold front continue east on Day 7/Monday, some low-end severe potential could possibly develop across the Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast, but confidence is low given similar concerns to those on Day 6/Sunday. With this system moving offshore by the end of the period, severe potential appears low on Day 8/Tuesday.

..Leitman.. 03/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, March 10: TORNADO: 15%; HAIL: 30%; WIND: 30%
Wednesday, March 11: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 30%
Thursday, March 12: ANY SEVERE: low
Friday, March 13: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, March 14: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, March 15: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, March 16: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, March 17: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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