Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Wednesday, July 1

Thursday, July 2

Friday, July 3

Saturday, July 4

Sunday, July 5

Monday, July 6

Tuesday, July 7

Wednesday, July 8

Outlook for Wednesday, July 1

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes today and tonight. A couple of tornadoes are possible but damaging wind gusts are expected to be the more widespread hazard, in addition to isolated large to very large hail. Additional severe storms are possible across parts of the central High Plains and Northeast.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 5%

wind 30%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 011235

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 AM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026

Valid 011300Z - 021200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES

### THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE NORTHEAST

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes today and tonight. A couple of tornadoes are possible but damaging wind gusts are expected to be the more widespread hazard, in addition to isolated large to very large hail. Additional severe storms are possible across parts of the central High Plains and Northeast.

Midwest and Upper Great Lakes

Showers and thunderstorms this morning are moving east over the Upper Midwest and are associated with a couple of MCVs over northwest IA and the SD-MN border. The ongoing strong to locally severe thunderstorm activity is situated in the vicinity of a west-east oriented frontal zone draped from MN east across WI and into the U.P. of MI. (see MCD #1413 for short-term details). The airmass south of the boundary is very moist with lower to mid 70s F surface dewpoints.

The Sioux Falls, SD (KFSD), Minneapolis, MN (KMPX), and the La Crosse, WI (KARX) VAD this morning are sampling a belt of strong southwesterly mid- to high-level flow (50+ kt in the 5-9km ARL layer). KARX has recently sensed an intensification of flow in the 3-6 km layer, which may influence the threat for wind damage/large hail beyond an isolated basis and beginning as early as late morning. Furthermore, it seems the strengthening of flow as depicted in some model guidance (upwards of 40-45 kt at 700 mb) may be of consequence for organizing multicells but also supercells during the day. The details concerning the tornado risk remain unclear and will likely remain mesoscale dependent and related to the persistence of morning convection and the airmass recovery, but it seems plausible the threat for supercell tornadoes would perhaps focus over WI and possibly extend into southern MN/northern IA this afternoon in wake of this morning's WAA-driven activity. Large to very large hail will be possible with the more intense storms in addition to wind, which may become more prevalent of a hazard (60-75 mph) as storm mergers lead to a couple of strong to severe clusters developing.

Central and southern High Plains

High-based thunderstorm development is expected along a north/south-oriented lee trough/dryline during the afternoon and evening. Despite modest deep-layer shear (around 25-30 kt), steep low/mid-level lapse rates will contribute to a strongly unstable airmass. A mix of loosely organized clusters and possibly some supercell structures will be capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail. Farther south, weaker flow will limit overall storm organization, but steep lapse rates will support severe gusts with the more intense downdrafts.

Northeast

Enhanced west-northwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the Northeast, where a warm/moist air mass will contribute to around 3000 J/kg MLCAPE. While nebulous mesoscale forcing for ascent casts uncertainty on overall convective coverage and evolution, the strong buoyancy and a veering wind profile (albeit modest deep-layer shear) will favor east-southeastward-spreading convection capable of damaging wind gusts and isolated hail during the afternoon and again during the evening/nighttime hours.

Southeast

Along the southern periphery of a midlevel anticyclone centered over the central Appalachians, weak easterly flow through much of the troposphere will overspread a hot/moist air mass with 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE during the afternoon. Strong to severe pulse thunderstorms are forecast. The stronger water-loaded wet microbursts will yield localized gusts of 50-65 mph and be capable of wind damage.

MT into the northern Great Basin

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of a slow-moving midlevel trough moving across the Northwest. Preceding the trough, around 40 kt of midlevel southwesterly flow and a weakly unstable air mass will support a couple loosely organized clusters capable of producing severe wind gusts during the afternoon and evening. Have extended low-severe probabilities farther south into ID/NV/UT where inverted-V profiles will support isolated severe gusts.

..Smith/Dean.. 07/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

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Outlook for Thursday, July 2

Outlook Summary

Strong to severe storms will be possible from the northern Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes regions on Thursday. Isolated strong to severe storms may also occur in the Tennessee Valley/Southeast as well as parts of the Northeast.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 5%

wind 15%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 010601

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST

### SUMMARY

Strong to severe storms will be possible from the northern Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes regions on Thursday. Isolated strong to severe storms may also occur in the Tennessee Valley/Southeast as well as parts of the Northeast.

Northern Plains into Mid-Missouri Valley

Broad cyclonic flow aloft across the Rockies will promote a lee trough and a modest surface low in the vicinity of the Black Hills. A surface boundary will arc from eastern Montana into northern South Dakota and southern Minnesota. Moisture advection into the High Plains will couple with higher terrain of MT/WY/SD as well as the surface boundary to initiate convection during the afternoon. Supercells will be likely initially with an attendant risk of large to very-large hail, severe winds, and a tornado or two. Mid-level lapse rates of 8-9 C/km will promote rapid intensification and strong downdrafts. Couple this with modest effective shear of 40-45 kt and upscale growth will be likely with time. An MCS is possible and would likely track along the surface boundary. Wind gusts of 75+ mph would be possible with this activity.

While most guidance does not show development along the surface boundary towards the mid-Missouri Valley, there will be weak warm advection ongoing through the day that will increase by late afternoon. Should storms develop here, they would likely be more isolated/cellular. A similar threat for large/very-large hail and severe gusts would exist along with a locally greater tornado threat. This would especially be the case if storms can remain discrete into the evening when low-level shear increases. Depending on whether this activity develops/evolves, this will have an impact on the spatial extent of a greater threat for severe winds into the evening and beyond. Given that uncertainty, the Slight Risk will be maintained with potential increases in wind probabilities in subsequent outlooks as confidence increases.

Midwest

Convection is expected to be ongoing in parts of the region. At least an isolated threat for damaging winds and large hail would exist with this activity. There remain some potential for intensification to occur as storms move east during the day. The Slight Risk remains in place into far western Lower Michigan to account for this potential. Later in the afternoon, redevelopment is possible along the outflow from earlier activity. The most robust model signals are in Iowa and parts of Wisconsin. Large hail would be possible especially in Iowa where mid-level lapse rates would be steeper. Otherwise damaging winds would be the main threat. A tornado or two could occur, but low-level shear will be rather weak.

Northeast

Strong buoyancy and modest shear will again be in place across the region. At least isolated storms are possible during the afternoon. Damaging winds should be the main threat with this activity. Isolated large hail may occur with the strongest storms, but modest mid-level lapse rates will limit this threat. Some guidance does show more organized activity moving into the region from Ontario/Quebec, but this may not occur until late afternoon. Confidence in that scenario occurring is too low for an increase in wind probabilities.

Tennessee Valley/Southeast

Strong heating of a very moist airmass will promote scattered to numerous storms during the afternoon. Congealing outflows will help to organize activity even with very weak shear. Given mid-level lapse rates of 7-7.5 C/km, at least marginally severe storms will be possible. Damaging winds are the expected hazard.

..Wendt.. 07/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

← back to overview

Outlook for Friday, July 3

Outlook Summary

Isolated to scattered severe storms are possible from the northern/central Plains into the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic on Friday.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 010733

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA

### SUMMARY

Isolated to scattered severe storms are possible from the northern/central Plains into the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic on Friday.

Synopsis

A complex forecast is evident on Friday. The upper-level trough in the West will lose some amplitude, though modest flow will remain across portions of the central/northern High Plains along with embedded shortwave troughs. The most complicating piece of the forecast will be the convection that is expected to be ongoing within the Midwest during the morning. The NAM/GFS is decidedly farther north than the ECMWF with this activity. The NAM has a strong enough MCS/MCV that it pushes the moist, unstable airmass farther south through the day whereas the ECMWF keeps a favorable airmass into the northern Plains. Given the large spatial extent of strong to severe storm potential, a broad marginal is in place from the northern Plains into the Midwest/Mid-Atlantic. Shear and mid-level lapse rates will be more favorable within the High Plains. A more targeted Slight Risk was added for southern South Dakota into Nebraska. Here, there will be potential for severe storms along the outflow from the expected MCS on Thursday. This area has been biased southward given the potential for storms being elevated atop outflow farther north. Some northward adjustment is possible if greater airmass recovery occurs. Another area where greater probabilities may be needed is in the Great Lakes region depending on the track/intensity of the MCV that moves eastward out of the Missouri Valley vicinity. Into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic, storm coverage will be more isolated and deep-layer shear much weaker. That said, a very unstable airmass could promote isolated damaging downburst winds.

..Wendt.. 07/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Saturday, July 4

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, July 4	predictability too low
Day 5	Sunday, July 5	predictability too low
Day 6	Monday, July 6	predictability too low
Day 7	Tuesday, July 7	predictability too low
Day 8	Wednesday, July 8	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010900 SPC AC 010900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

Flow aloft will become more zonal by this weekend as the upper-level ridge flattens and begins to shift/build westward. The strongest mid-level winds will be present across the northern tier of the CONUS. An upper-level low in the vicinity of the Canadian Maritimes will bring a belt of stronger mid-level winds across the Northeast. Some southward movement of a surface boundary can be expected within the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic this weekend into early next week. At the same time, northwesterly flow aloft will develop over the High Plains along with moisture pushing farther northwest into the region.

Severe potential will largely be driven by mesoscale features such as localized convergence along stalled/weak boundaries as well as MCVs from prior convection. The airmass across much of the Plains into the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic will be quite unstable and strong heating will occur underneath the increasingly muted upper ridge. Subtle lift from shortwave troughs may promote greater convective coverage in parts of the Mid-Atlantic early next week. However, the stronger, but still modest, shear will be displaced from the most buoyant airmass. Additional convection will be possible along the surface boundary within the Midwest/Ohio Valley, but shear will generally be weak. More organized convection may also develop within the northwest flow pattern in the High Plains, but predictability remains low as to where this will eventually occur.

..Wendt.. 07/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Sunday, July 5

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, July 4	predictability too low
Day 5	Sunday, July 5	predictability too low
Day 6	Monday, July 6	predictability too low
Day 7	Tuesday, July 7	predictability too low
Day 8	Wednesday, July 8	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010900 SPC AC 010900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

Flow aloft will become more zonal by this weekend as the upper-level ridge flattens and begins to shift/build westward. The strongest mid-level winds will be present across the northern tier of the CONUS. An upper-level low in the vicinity of the Canadian Maritimes will bring a belt of stronger mid-level winds across the Northeast. Some southward movement of a surface boundary can be expected within the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic this weekend into early next week. At the same time, northwesterly flow aloft will develop over the High Plains along with moisture pushing farther northwest into the region.

Severe potential will largely be driven by mesoscale features such as localized convergence along stalled/weak boundaries as well as MCVs from prior convection. The airmass across much of the Plains into the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic will be quite unstable and strong heating will occur underneath the increasingly muted upper ridge. Subtle lift from shortwave troughs may promote greater convective coverage in parts of the Mid-Atlantic early next week. However, the stronger, but still modest, shear will be displaced from the most buoyant airmass. Additional convection will be possible along the surface boundary within the Midwest/Ohio Valley, but shear will generally be weak. More organized convection may also develop within the northwest flow pattern in the High Plains, but predictability remains low as to where this will eventually occur.

..Wendt.. 07/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Monday, July 6

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, July 4	predictability too low
Day 5	Sunday, July 5	predictability too low
Day 6	Monday, July 6	predictability too low
Day 7	Tuesday, July 7	predictability too low
Day 8	Wednesday, July 8	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010900 SPC AC 010900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

Flow aloft will become more zonal by this weekend as the upper-level ridge flattens and begins to shift/build westward. The strongest mid-level winds will be present across the northern tier of the CONUS. An upper-level low in the vicinity of the Canadian Maritimes will bring a belt of stronger mid-level winds across the Northeast. Some southward movement of a surface boundary can be expected within the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic this weekend into early next week. At the same time, northwesterly flow aloft will develop over the High Plains along with moisture pushing farther northwest into the region.

Severe potential will largely be driven by mesoscale features such as localized convergence along stalled/weak boundaries as well as MCVs from prior convection. The airmass across much of the Plains into the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic will be quite unstable and strong heating will occur underneath the increasingly muted upper ridge. Subtle lift from shortwave troughs may promote greater convective coverage in parts of the Mid-Atlantic early next week. However, the stronger, but still modest, shear will be displaced from the most buoyant airmass. Additional convection will be possible along the surface boundary within the Midwest/Ohio Valley, but shear will generally be weak. More organized convection may also develop within the northwest flow pattern in the High Plains, but predictability remains low as to where this will eventually occur.

..Wendt.. 07/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Tuesday, July 7

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, July 4	predictability too low
Day 5	Sunday, July 5	predictability too low
Day 6	Monday, July 6	predictability too low
Day 7	Tuesday, July 7	predictability too low
Day 8	Wednesday, July 8	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010900 SPC AC 010900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

Flow aloft will become more zonal by this weekend as the upper-level ridge flattens and begins to shift/build westward. The strongest mid-level winds will be present across the northern tier of the CONUS. An upper-level low in the vicinity of the Canadian Maritimes will bring a belt of stronger mid-level winds across the Northeast. Some southward movement of a surface boundary can be expected within the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic this weekend into early next week. At the same time, northwesterly flow aloft will develop over the High Plains along with moisture pushing farther northwest into the region.

Severe potential will largely be driven by mesoscale features such as localized convergence along stalled/weak boundaries as well as MCVs from prior convection. The airmass across much of the Plains into the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic will be quite unstable and strong heating will occur underneath the increasingly muted upper ridge. Subtle lift from shortwave troughs may promote greater convective coverage in parts of the Mid-Atlantic early next week. However, the stronger, but still modest, shear will be displaced from the most buoyant airmass. Additional convection will be possible along the surface boundary within the Midwest/Ohio Valley, but shear will generally be weak. More organized convection may also develop within the northwest flow pattern in the High Plains, but predictability remains low as to where this will eventually occur.

..Wendt.. 07/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Wednesday, July 8

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, July 4	predictability too low
Day 5	Sunday, July 5	predictability too low
Day 6	Monday, July 6	predictability too low
Day 7	Tuesday, July 7	predictability too low
Day 8	Wednesday, July 8	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010900 SPC AC 010900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

Flow aloft will become more zonal by this weekend as the upper-level ridge flattens and begins to shift/build westward. The strongest mid-level winds will be present across the northern tier of the CONUS. An upper-level low in the vicinity of the Canadian Maritimes will bring a belt of stronger mid-level winds across the Northeast. Some southward movement of a surface boundary can be expected within the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic this weekend into early next week. At the same time, northwesterly flow aloft will develop over the High Plains along with moisture pushing farther northwest into the region.

Severe potential will largely be driven by mesoscale features such as localized convergence along stalled/weak boundaries as well as MCVs from prior convection. The airmass across much of the Plains into the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic will be quite unstable and strong heating will occur underneath the increasingly muted upper ridge. Subtle lift from shortwave troughs may promote greater convective coverage in parts of the Mid-Atlantic early next week. However, the stronger, but still modest, shear will be displaced from the most buoyant airmass. Additional convection will be possible along the surface boundary within the Midwest/Ohio Valley, but shear will generally be weak. More organized convection may also develop within the northwest flow pattern in the High Plains, but predictability remains low as to where this will eventually occur.

..Wendt.. 07/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, July 1: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 30%
Thursday, July 2: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Friday, July 3: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Saturday, July 4: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, July 5: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, July 6: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, July 7: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, July 8: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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