Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, December 22
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 220521
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today.
Discussion
Midlevel short-wave trough, off the Pacific Northwest coast, is forecast to advance inland around 23/00z before deamplifying as it ejects into southwest Canada by the end of the period. Associated surface front will also progress inland around 23/00z, and cooling lower tropospheric profiles should lead to weak buoyancy along the WA/OR coast. Low-topped convection may generate a flash or two of lightning, but thunderstorms should otherwise remain quite sparse.
Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a weak short-wave trough over northeast Mexico, lifting north in line with latest model guidance. Deep southeasterly flow across south TX will maintain moist profiles that should exhibit modest SBCAPE by late afternoon. Forecast soundings also suggest deep-layer shear will remain quite weak, and any convection that evolves across this region should remain below severe levels.
..Darrow/Squitieri.. 12/22/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Tuesday, December 23
Outlook Summary
Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast across the contiguous United States on Tuesday or Tuesday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 220633
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast across the contiguous United States on Tuesday or Tuesday night.
California
An upper trough over the eastern Pacific will approach the West Coast on Tuesday. A mid-level shortwave trough embedded within the larger-scale trough will likely reach the central and northern CA coastal areas late Tuesday night. A surface low will develop and migrate northeast reaching the OR-CA border by early Wednesday morning. Flow will increase during the period as a 100-kt 500-mb jet impinges on the central coastal areas of CA. Yet, only scant instability is currently progged. This meager buoyancy will generally focus near the coast but sporadic pockets will probably develop farther inland over the central valleys late Tuesday night. Low-topped convective showers and isolated thunderstorms will gradually increase in coverage coincident with increased forcing for ascent and instability. Given the dearth of buoyancy forecast, will preclude the introduction of low-severe probabilities.
Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will prevail across the Lower 48.
..Smith.. 12/22/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Wednesday, December 24
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, December 24 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, December 25 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, December 26 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, December 27 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, December 28 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210920 SPC AC 210920
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range model guidance initially shows a pattern featuring an upper ridge over the central CONUS and trough along the West Coast, transitioning to a more progressive flow regime and lowering heights across the Great Plains during the Thursday-Saturday (D5-D7) period. The inland-moving West Coast trough will potentially yield isolated to scattered thunderstorms on Wednesday into early Thursday over portions of southern and central CA and perhaps a localized risk for a couple of stronger thunderstorms. Details concerning this convective scenario and overall magnitude of severe risk preclude severe highlights. Farther east, some moisture return northward into the southern Great Plains and MS Valley through Friday will likely be modulated by frontal advancements during the latter part of extended period.
..Smith.. 12/21/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, December 25
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, December 24 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, December 25 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, December 26 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, December 27 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, December 28 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210920 SPC AC 210920
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range model guidance initially shows a pattern featuring an upper ridge over the central CONUS and trough along the West Coast, transitioning to a more progressive flow regime and lowering heights across the Great Plains during the Thursday-Saturday (D5-D7) period. The inland-moving West Coast trough will potentially yield isolated to scattered thunderstorms on Wednesday into early Thursday over portions of southern and central CA and perhaps a localized risk for a couple of stronger thunderstorms. Details concerning this convective scenario and overall magnitude of severe risk preclude severe highlights. Farther east, some moisture return northward into the southern Great Plains and MS Valley through Friday will likely be modulated by frontal advancements during the latter part of extended period.
..Smith.. 12/21/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, December 26
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, December 24 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, December 25 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, December 26 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, December 27 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, December 28 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210920 SPC AC 210920
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range model guidance initially shows a pattern featuring an upper ridge over the central CONUS and trough along the West Coast, transitioning to a more progressive flow regime and lowering heights across the Great Plains during the Thursday-Saturday (D5-D7) period. The inland-moving West Coast trough will potentially yield isolated to scattered thunderstorms on Wednesday into early Thursday over portions of southern and central CA and perhaps a localized risk for a couple of stronger thunderstorms. Details concerning this convective scenario and overall magnitude of severe risk preclude severe highlights. Farther east, some moisture return northward into the southern Great Plains and MS Valley through Friday will likely be modulated by frontal advancements during the latter part of extended period.
..Smith.. 12/21/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, December 27
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, December 24 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, December 25 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, December 26 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, December 27 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, December 28 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210920 SPC AC 210920
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range model guidance initially shows a pattern featuring an upper ridge over the central CONUS and trough along the West Coast, transitioning to a more progressive flow regime and lowering heights across the Great Plains during the Thursday-Saturday (D5-D7) period. The inland-moving West Coast trough will potentially yield isolated to scattered thunderstorms on Wednesday into early Thursday over portions of southern and central CA and perhaps a localized risk for a couple of stronger thunderstorms. Details concerning this convective scenario and overall magnitude of severe risk preclude severe highlights. Farther east, some moisture return northward into the southern Great Plains and MS Valley through Friday will likely be modulated by frontal advancements during the latter part of extended period.
..Smith.. 12/21/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, December 28
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, December 24 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, December 25 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, December 26 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, December 27 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, December 28 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210920 SPC AC 210920
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range model guidance initially shows a pattern featuring an upper ridge over the central CONUS and trough along the West Coast, transitioning to a more progressive flow regime and lowering heights across the Great Plains during the Thursday-Saturday (D5-D7) period. The inland-moving West Coast trough will potentially yield isolated to scattered thunderstorms on Wednesday into early Thursday over portions of southern and central CA and perhaps a localized risk for a couple of stronger thunderstorms. Details concerning this convective scenario and overall magnitude of severe risk preclude severe highlights. Farther east, some moisture return northward into the southern Great Plains and MS Valley through Friday will likely be modulated by frontal advancements during the latter part of extended period.
..Smith.. 12/21/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, December 22
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, December 23
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Wednesday, December 24
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, December 25
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, December 26
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, December 27
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, December 28
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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