Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, September 29
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe thunderstorm gusts and a couple of tornadoes will be possible this afternoon into tonight from southern and eastern New Mexico into west Texas.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 290535
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NM INTO WEST TX
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe thunderstorm gusts and a couple of tornadoes will be possible this afternoon into tonight from southern and eastern New Mexico into west Texas.
Synopsis
A mid/upper-level low and attendant trough are forecast to move across the Desert Southwest through the period. In response to the approaching deep trough, Hurricane Polo is forecast to move from the Gulf of California into Sonora this morning. While the tropical cyclone is forecast to weaken over the mountainous terrain of northern Mexico later today, phasing of the midlevel remnant of Polo with the approaching deep mid/upper-level trough will result in a consolidating surface low that is forecast to move across eastern NM and west TX through the evening.
Southern/eastern NM into west TX
Widespread convection is expected this afternoon into tonight from southern/eastern NM into west TX, as increasing large-scale ascent overspreads a very moist environment. The influence of the remnant tropical system will result in poor midlevel lapse rates, but increasing deep-layer flow/shear and enlarging low-level hodographs will favor some storm organization. The widespread storm coverage will result in a tendency toward complex or linear storm modes with time, though occasional supercells will also be possible. The weak lapse rates and modest buoyancy are expected to limit the magnitude of severe potential, but a localized tornado and severe-gust threat could accompany any organized storm structures this afternoon and evening.
Arizona
Widespread convection is expected across parts of AZ this morning into the afternoon, in association with the primary mid/upper-level low. Some enhancement to deep-layer shear and low-level SRH is expected to accompany this system, but extensive cloudiness and precipitation will inhibit diurnal heating and destabilization. At this time, organized severe potential appears relatively low, but locally gusty winds and transient rotation may occur with the strongest convective elements. Trends will continue to monitored regarding potential for pockets of locally greater destabilization through the day.
..Dean/Weinman.. 09/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Wednesday, September 30
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts, hail and perhaps a tornado or two will be possible across the southern Plains Wednesday afternoon and evening. Isolated severe gusts and hail may also occur from parts of western and central Kansas into far southern Nebraska.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 290559
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026
Valid 301200Z - 011200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts, hail and perhaps a tornado or two will be possible across the southern Plains Wednesday afternoon and evening. Isolated severe gusts and hail may also occur from parts of western and central Kansas into far southern Nebraska.
Southern Plains
An upper-level low and an associated 50 to 70 knot mid-level jet will move from the southern Rockies into the southern Plains on Wednesday. At the surface, a low will deepen and move northeastward into southwest Kansas. A dryline will become well-defined from the low southward into west Texas during the afternoon. To the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F will contribute to a pocket of moderate instability over west-central Texas and southwest Oklahoma, where MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. Large-scale ascent associated with the trough, will move into the southern High Plains supporting thunderstorm development along the instability axis. Thunderstorms will expand in coverage as a line develops and moves eastward across the southern Plains during the late afternoon and early evening.
The mid-level jet streak will result in a increase of deep-layer shear across the southern Plains throughout the day. Forecast soundings by 21Z over west-central Texas have 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 40 knot range, which will support supercell development. Supercells will be most likely early in the event, when storms are most likely to be discrete. Supercells will be capable of severe wind gusts and hail. As cell coverage increases, a line is expected to gradually organize. Wind damage and hail will be possible along the leading edge of this line. In addition, low-level shear will also increase during the early evening, which may be sufficient for an isolated tornado threat with rotating elements within the line. The wind-damage threat should continue into the mid evening, as the line moves eastward across southwest Oklahoma and west-central Texas.
Western and Central Kansas
An upper-level low will move across the southern Rockies on Wednesday, as the exit region of a mid-level jet overspreads the central Plains. At the surface, a low will deepen and move into southwest Kansas by afternoon, as a warm front moves across central and northern Kansas. Increasing low-level convergence associated with the low will aid thunderstorm development in the late afternoon along and near an axis of instability axis. Forecast soundings near the instability axis in west-central Kansas suggest that MLCAPE could peak near 1000 J/kg. This, combined with 0-6 km shear near 30 knots could be sufficient for isolated severe gusts and hail.
..Broyles.. 09/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Thursday, October 1
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts will be possible on Thursday across parts of the southern Plains.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 290706
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts will be possible on Thursday across parts of the southern Plains.
Southern Plains
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the south-central U.S. on Thursday, as a cold front advances southeastward across the southern Plains. Surface heating and increasing low-level convergence will result in scattered thunderstorm development near the front. Thunderstorms will gradually increase in coverage during the afternoon, moving eastward across a zone from southwest, central and northeast Texas into southeast Oklahoma. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F may result in moderate destabilization across parts of the moist airmass. Storms that develop within these pockets of stronger instability could be associated with an isolated wind-damage threat, mainly as low-level lapse rates become steep in the late afternoon. However, deep-layer shear is forecast to remain relatively weak, which will marginalize any severe threat.
..Broyles.. 09/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Friday, October 2
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, October 2 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, October 3 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, October 4 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, October 5 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, October 6 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290845 SPC AC 290845
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
Over the weekend, the pattern will consist of a large-scale trough over the northeastern U.S.. Multiple shortwave troughs are forecast to move eastward through the flow. A cold front appears likely to move from the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys southward to near the Gulf Coast. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon ahead of the front. Deep-layer shear is expected to be too weak for a severe threat.
Early next week, mid-level flow is forecast to be west-northwesterly over much of the nation. A relatively cool and dry airmass will be in place over most of the continental U.S. The exception could be along parts of the immediate Gulf Coast, where moisture and instability may be sufficient for thunderstorm development. The severe threat is expected to be minimal.
..Broyles.. 09/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, October 3
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, October 2 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, October 3 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, October 4 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, October 5 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, October 6 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290845 SPC AC 290845
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
Over the weekend, the pattern will consist of a large-scale trough over the northeastern U.S.. Multiple shortwave troughs are forecast to move eastward through the flow. A cold front appears likely to move from the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys southward to near the Gulf Coast. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon ahead of the front. Deep-layer shear is expected to be too weak for a severe threat.
Early next week, mid-level flow is forecast to be west-northwesterly over much of the nation. A relatively cool and dry airmass will be in place over most of the continental U.S. The exception could be along parts of the immediate Gulf Coast, where moisture and instability may be sufficient for thunderstorm development. The severe threat is expected to be minimal.
..Broyles.. 09/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, October 4
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, October 2 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, October 3 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, October 4 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, October 5 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, October 6 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290845 SPC AC 290845
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
Over the weekend, the pattern will consist of a large-scale trough over the northeastern U.S.. Multiple shortwave troughs are forecast to move eastward through the flow. A cold front appears likely to move from the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys southward to near the Gulf Coast. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon ahead of the front. Deep-layer shear is expected to be too weak for a severe threat.
Early next week, mid-level flow is forecast to be west-northwesterly over much of the nation. A relatively cool and dry airmass will be in place over most of the continental U.S. The exception could be along parts of the immediate Gulf Coast, where moisture and instability may be sufficient for thunderstorm development. The severe threat is expected to be minimal.
..Broyles.. 09/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, October 5
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, October 2 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, October 3 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, October 4 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, October 5 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, October 6 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290845 SPC AC 290845
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
Over the weekend, the pattern will consist of a large-scale trough over the northeastern U.S.. Multiple shortwave troughs are forecast to move eastward through the flow. A cold front appears likely to move from the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys southward to near the Gulf Coast. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon ahead of the front. Deep-layer shear is expected to be too weak for a severe threat.
Early next week, mid-level flow is forecast to be west-northwesterly over much of the nation. A relatively cool and dry airmass will be in place over most of the continental U.S. The exception could be along parts of the immediate Gulf Coast, where moisture and instability may be sufficient for thunderstorm development. The severe threat is expected to be minimal.
..Broyles.. 09/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, October 6
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, October 2 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, October 3 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, October 4 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, October 5 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, October 6 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290845 SPC AC 290845
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
Over the weekend, the pattern will consist of a large-scale trough over the northeastern U.S.. Multiple shortwave troughs are forecast to move eastward through the flow. A cold front appears likely to move from the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys southward to near the Gulf Coast. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon ahead of the front. Deep-layer shear is expected to be too weak for a severe threat.
Early next week, mid-level flow is forecast to be west-northwesterly over much of the nation. A relatively cool and dry airmass will be in place over most of the continental U.S. The exception could be along parts of the immediate Gulf Coast, where moisture and instability may be sufficient for thunderstorm development. The severe threat is expected to be minimal.
..Broyles.. 09/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, September 29
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Wednesday, September 30
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Thursday, October 1
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Friday, October 2
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, October 3
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, October 4
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, October 5
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, October 6
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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