Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, April 8
Outlook Summary
A few strong thunderstorms may develop across western into central Kansas this afternoon and evening, with an instance or two of severe wind and hail possible.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 080556
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS
### SUMMARY
A few strong thunderstorms may develop across western into central Kansas this afternoon and evening, with an instance or two of severe wind and hail possible.
Synopsis
A mid-level trough will traverse the north-central CONUS today, supporting modest surface troughing across the Plains states. Despite initially meager low-level moisture return, storms may develop along a frontal boundary over the central Plains by late afternoon. A few of which may be strong. Otherwise, isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop along sea-breeze boundaries over the FL Peninsula, as was with the upper trough over the Upper MS Valley. A couple of lightning flashes may also occur over northern CA surrounding areas as an upper trough impinges on the coastline.
Central into western Kansas
By afternoon peak heating, clear skies and robust heating of the boundary layer will result in convective temperatures being reached along/just ahead of a frontal boundary, which is poised to drift southward through late afternoon. Convective initiation is likely around or after 20Z, when 30+ F T/Td spreads should be in place. High-based multicells will be the likely storm mode, as strong northwesterly flow aloft will contribute to elongated, straight hodographs. The strongest storms may produce a couple of severe gusts and perhaps an instance or two of hail.
..Squitieri/Chalmers.. 04/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Thursday, April 9
Outlook Summary
An isolated threat for large hail and strong wind gusts is expected to develop Thursday afternoon and evening in parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley westward into Kansas, and southwestward into the Texas Panhandle.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 080557
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
### SUMMARY
An isolated threat for large hail and strong wind gusts is expected to develop Thursday afternoon and evening in parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley westward into Kansas, and southwestward into the Texas Panhandle.
Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/Central and Southern Plains
A mid-level shortwave trough will move across the north-central U.S. on Thursday, as westerly flow remains over the central states. At the surface, moisture return will take place across the southern and central Plains. A cold front is forecast to move southward into far northern Kansas by afternoon. Surface heating and increasing low-level convergence along the front will result in scattered thunderstorm development during the late afternoon, with storms gradually increasing in coverage in the evening. The latest model forecasts suggest that a pocket of moderate instability will develop across north-central Kansas, with weaker instability extending eastward into northern Missouri. NAM forecast soundings in the late afternoon near the front show about 40 knots of 0-6 km shear with 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 8 C/km. This should support isolated supercell development with potential for large hail. Surface temperature-dewpoint spreads are forecast to exceed 20 F along much of this corridor, which would contribute to a potential for isolated severe gusts.
Further southwest into southwest Kansas and the Texas Panhandle, dryline development will be possible as surface dewpoints gradually increase during the day. Isolated thunderstorms may form to the east of the dryline during the early evening. Weak instability, moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates may support a marginal severe threat. Isolated damaging wind gusts and hail will be the primary threats.
..Broyles.. 04/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Friday, April 10
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible on Friday over parts of the southern and central Plains eastward into the Ozarks.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 080713
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible on Friday over parts of the southern and central Plains eastward into the Ozarks.
Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks
An upper-level ridge will move eastward into the Rockies on Friday, as mid-level flow remains westerly over the Great Plains. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southward across far southern Kansas. Surface heating and low-level convergence along the front will aid convective initiation during the afternoon. A few small thunderstorm clusters will be possible from late afternoon into the evening. Near the front by late afternoon, model forecasts have MLCAPE peaking in the 1200 to 1500 J/kg range, and show 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 30 knot range. This should be enough for a marginal severe threat. Hail and isolated severe gusts will be the primary threats.
..Broyles.. 04/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Saturday, April 11
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, April 10 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Saturday, April 11 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Sunday, April 12 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Monday, April 13 | 15% |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, April 14 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070856 SPC AC 070856
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6
An upper-level trough will move eastward from the eastern Pacific on Friday into the western U.S. on Saturday, as southwest mid-level flow gradually strengthens over the south-central states. In response, low-level moisture advection will continue over the Great Plains. Ahead of the western U.S. trough, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move into the southern High Plains Saturday afternoon. A severe threat will be possible ahead of and near the trough during the afternoon and evening.
On Sunday, the western U.S. upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly east-northeastward into the southern Rockies. Ahead of the trough, a moist and moderately unstable airmass is forecast over much of the southern and central Plains by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop over much of this airmass during the afternoon and evening. Moderate to strong deep-layer shear appear likely to be in place, which will be favorable for severe storms. Supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts and a tornado threat will be possible. An isolated severe threat may also develop in parts of the north-central U.S.
Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8
A secondary upper-level trough is forecast to move into the Desert Southwest on Monday. Ahead of this system, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to remain in place from the southern Plains north-northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Although a severe threat will be possible along much of the instability corridor, the greatest threat is expected to develop in the southern Plains, where model forecasts show the most favorable environment.
On Tuesday, model forecasts have some agreement concerning the timing of the trough, which is forecast to eject northeastward across the southern and central Plains. Ahead of the trough, there is large variance among the models concerning the distribution of instability. If a moderately unstable airmass is in place by Tuesday afternoon ahead of the ejecting system, a severe threat will be likely from the southern Plains into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. However, the system will probably be slower than forecast, which adds considerable uncertainty this late in the period.
..Broyles.. 04/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, April 12
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, April 10 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Saturday, April 11 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Sunday, April 12 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Monday, April 13 | 15% |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, April 14 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070856 SPC AC 070856
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6
An upper-level trough will move eastward from the eastern Pacific on Friday into the western U.S. on Saturday, as southwest mid-level flow gradually strengthens over the south-central states. In response, low-level moisture advection will continue over the Great Plains. Ahead of the western U.S. trough, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move into the southern High Plains Saturday afternoon. A severe threat will be possible ahead of and near the trough during the afternoon and evening.
On Sunday, the western U.S. upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly east-northeastward into the southern Rockies. Ahead of the trough, a moist and moderately unstable airmass is forecast over much of the southern and central Plains by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop over much of this airmass during the afternoon and evening. Moderate to strong deep-layer shear appear likely to be in place, which will be favorable for severe storms. Supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts and a tornado threat will be possible. An isolated severe threat may also develop in parts of the north-central U.S.
Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8
A secondary upper-level trough is forecast to move into the Desert Southwest on Monday. Ahead of this system, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to remain in place from the southern Plains north-northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Although a severe threat will be possible along much of the instability corridor, the greatest threat is expected to develop in the southern Plains, where model forecasts show the most favorable environment.
On Tuesday, model forecasts have some agreement concerning the timing of the trough, which is forecast to eject northeastward across the southern and central Plains. Ahead of the trough, there is large variance among the models concerning the distribution of instability. If a moderately unstable airmass is in place by Tuesday afternoon ahead of the ejecting system, a severe threat will be likely from the southern Plains into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. However, the system will probably be slower than forecast, which adds considerable uncertainty this late in the period.
..Broyles.. 04/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, April 13
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, April 10 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Saturday, April 11 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Sunday, April 12 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Monday, April 13 | 15% |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, April 14 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070856 SPC AC 070856
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6
An upper-level trough will move eastward from the eastern Pacific on Friday into the western U.S. on Saturday, as southwest mid-level flow gradually strengthens over the south-central states. In response, low-level moisture advection will continue over the Great Plains. Ahead of the western U.S. trough, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move into the southern High Plains Saturday afternoon. A severe threat will be possible ahead of and near the trough during the afternoon and evening.
On Sunday, the western U.S. upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly east-northeastward into the southern Rockies. Ahead of the trough, a moist and moderately unstable airmass is forecast over much of the southern and central Plains by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop over much of this airmass during the afternoon and evening. Moderate to strong deep-layer shear appear likely to be in place, which will be favorable for severe storms. Supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts and a tornado threat will be possible. An isolated severe threat may also develop in parts of the north-central U.S.
Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8
A secondary upper-level trough is forecast to move into the Desert Southwest on Monday. Ahead of this system, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to remain in place from the southern Plains north-northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Although a severe threat will be possible along much of the instability corridor, the greatest threat is expected to develop in the southern Plains, where model forecasts show the most favorable environment.
On Tuesday, model forecasts have some agreement concerning the timing of the trough, which is forecast to eject northeastward across the southern and central Plains. Ahead of the trough, there is large variance among the models concerning the distribution of instability. If a moderately unstable airmass is in place by Tuesday afternoon ahead of the ejecting system, a severe threat will be likely from the southern Plains into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. However, the system will probably be slower than forecast, which adds considerable uncertainty this late in the period.
..Broyles.. 04/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, April 14
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, April 10 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Saturday, April 11 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Sunday, April 12 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Monday, April 13 | 15% |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, April 14 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070856 SPC AC 070856
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6
An upper-level trough will move eastward from the eastern Pacific on Friday into the western U.S. on Saturday, as southwest mid-level flow gradually strengthens over the south-central states. In response, low-level moisture advection will continue over the Great Plains. Ahead of the western U.S. trough, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move into the southern High Plains Saturday afternoon. A severe threat will be possible ahead of and near the trough during the afternoon and evening.
On Sunday, the western U.S. upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly east-northeastward into the southern Rockies. Ahead of the trough, a moist and moderately unstable airmass is forecast over much of the southern and central Plains by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop over much of this airmass during the afternoon and evening. Moderate to strong deep-layer shear appear likely to be in place, which will be favorable for severe storms. Supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts and a tornado threat will be possible. An isolated severe threat may also develop in parts of the north-central U.S.
Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8
A secondary upper-level trough is forecast to move into the Desert Southwest on Monday. Ahead of this system, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to remain in place from the southern Plains north-northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Although a severe threat will be possible along much of the instability corridor, the greatest threat is expected to develop in the southern Plains, where model forecasts show the most favorable environment.
On Tuesday, model forecasts have some agreement concerning the timing of the trough, which is forecast to eject northeastward across the southern and central Plains. Ahead of the trough, there is large variance among the models concerning the distribution of instability. If a moderately unstable airmass is in place by Tuesday afternoon ahead of the ejecting system, a severe threat will be likely from the southern Plains into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. However, the system will probably be slower than forecast, which adds considerable uncertainty this late in the period.
..Broyles.. 04/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, April 8
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Thursday, April 9
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Friday, April 10
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Saturday, April 11
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Sunday, April 12
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Monday, April 13
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Tuesday, April 14
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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