Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Sunday, May 31

Outlook Summary

A few strong to locally severe storms are possible across the central U.S. on Sunday, from the Dakotas into the Ozarks, and across southwest Texas.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 310603

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS

### SUMMARY

A few strong to locally severe storms are possible across the central U.S. on Sunday, from the Dakotas into the Ozarks, and across southwest Texas.

Synopsis

A relatively weak upper trough will lift northward through the central/northern Plains. To the south of this feature, mid-level heights will modestly rise during the day. Weak surface lows are expected within the northern Plains and Kansas. Rich moisture will be present as far north as the Mid-Missouri Valley.

Kansas/Missouri

Convection is likely to be ongoing in parts of the Mid-Missouri Valley during the morning. This activity is likely to leave an outflow boundary within Missouri. Dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F will promote strong to extreme MLCAPE values (3500-5000 J/kg). Despite the trough generally lifting northward, a band of 30-40 kt of mid-level flow will remain across the region. Storm development along the surface trough/dryline is uncertain given the rising mid-level heights. However, it is possible that a storm or two could form along this boundary or where it intersects outflow from the early day activity. Deep-layer shear would be sufficient for supercell structures capable of large hail, severe winds, and perhaps a tornado given the locally enhanced SRH along the outflow boundary. The potential for very-large hail is less clear given weak upper-level flow.

Model guidance also suggests a subtle shortwave, coupled with weak low-level lift, could initiate convection in the vicinity of northeast Kansas/northwest Missouri. With the very moist airmass present, nocturnal cooling would be rather gradual. Should a strong enough cold pool develop, this activity could develop south/southeast along the outflow boundary where a reservoir of strong buoyancy would exist. Damaging winds would be the main threat with this potential MCS. With the timing of this development expected to be after 03Z, it is not clear how intense storms will be. Should confidence increase in either scenario, a categorical Slight would be warranted.

Oklahoma/Texas

Strong heating to the west of a dryline will promote at least isolated storms during the afternoon. Higher confidence in greater storm coverage exists in Southwest Texas given the moist upslope flow into the Davis Mountains. Coverage into Rolling Plains and Oklahoma is less certain as mid-level heights will be slowly rising during the day. Moderate to strong buoyancy will be in place (2000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE. Deep layer shear will be weak, however. Severe wind gusts will be the main hazard, though isolated large hail is possible in the areas of larger buoyancy.

Nebraska into the Dakotas

Forcing for ascent from the weak, negatively tilted upper trough will be greater here than areas to the south. That said, shear will not be overly strong. Daytime heating will support widely scattered to scattered storms capable of locally damaging winds and perhaps some hail.

..Wendt/Moore.. 05/31/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Monday, June 1

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected Monday afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains. Isolated severe wind gusts and hail will also be possible from the parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley and northern Ozarks southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley and Southeast.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 310559

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected Monday afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains. Isolated severe wind gusts and hail will also be possible from the parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley and northern Ozarks southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley and Southeast.

Central Plains/Mid Missouri Valley

Mid-level heights will rise on Monday across the central U.S. as southwesterly mid-level flow remains in place over the Rockies and High Plains. At the surface, a low will deepen in far southwest Kansas, with upslope easterly flow in place over much of the central Plains. An axis of low-level moisture and instability is forecast to setup from central Kansas west-northwestward into northeastern Colorado, where surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 50s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, convective initiation will take place in the higher terrain of east-central Colorado. Additional storms are expected to develop further east across the central High Plains along and near the instability axis.

Forecast soundings near the instability axis at 00Z have MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range with 0-6 km shear near 40 knots. In addition, 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be near 8 C/km. This environment will support supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts. The potential for severe wind gusts should increase during the evening as a cluster of cells move east-northeastward across the central High Plains.

Further east and northeast into parts of eastern Kansas, eastern Nebraska and eastern South Dakota, the presence of the mid-level ridge will keep convective coverage more isolated. Beneath the ridge, surface dewpoints are forecast to be from the mid 60s F north to the lower 70s F south, which will result in an axis of moderate to strong instability by afternoon. If storms can initiate and persist in spite of the weak forcing, then a severe threat would be expected. Severe wind gusts and hail would be the primary threats.

Lower Missouri Valley/Northern Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley/Southeast

A large-scale mid-level cyclonic flow pattern will be in place on Monday across much of the eastern U.S. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located from the lower Missouri Valley southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley and Southeast. Surface dewpoints will be in the upper 60s F to lower 70s F. This will contribute to an axis of moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Some model forecasts move a shortwave trough, and an associated morning convective system southward across the mid Mississippi Valley. Other solutions keep convective coverage more isolated. This points to spatial uncertainty concerning any severe threat. If the more aggressive solutions pan out, then the wind-damage and hail threat could be greatest from parts of western Tennessee southward into the central Gulf Coast states. An isolated wind-damage and hail threat may also extend eastward into northern Georgia and South Carolina, along an east-to-west axis of instability.

..Broyles.. 05/31/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, June 2

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe wind gusts are expected on Tuesday across parts of the northern High Plains. Strong wind gusts and hail will be possible in parts of the southern and central High Plains, and along the eastern Gulf Coast.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 310729

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe wind gusts are expected on Tuesday across parts of the northern High Plains. Strong wind gusts and hail will be possible in parts of the southern and central High Plains, and along the eastern Gulf Coast.

High Plains

At mid-levels, a low and an associated shortwave trough will move slowly eastward from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains on Tuesday. Ahead of the trough, southeasterly mid-level flow will be in place over the top of a moist airmass in the northern Plains. Surface dewpoints from the mid 50s to lower 60s F will contribute the development of moderate instability across much of the moist sector by afternoon. Model forecasts focus a zone of maximized low-level convergence in the afternoon, ahead of a cold front moving through the western Dakotas. Near this convergence zone, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and move east-northeastward into the warm sector during the late afternoon and early evening.

Ahead of the front, forecast soundings near Bismarck in the late afternoon have MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg with 0-6 km shear around 35 knots. This will support a potential for supercells with large hail. In addition, 0-3 km lapse rates are forecast to become very steep in the late afternoon, which will coincide with relatively large temperature-dewpoint spreads. This will be favorable for severe wind gusts. The severe threat is expected to continue into the early to mid evening as multiple storms move eastward into the central Dakotas.

Further south into parts of the southern and central High Plains, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place beneath considerably weaker mid-level flow. In most areas, large-scale ascent will remain limited. However, a few storms could develop along zones of maximized low-level convergence. These storms will likely have access to moderate instability and enough deep-layer shear for an isolated severe threat. A few strong wind gusts and hail will be possible.

Eastern Gulf Coast

An upper-level trough will move south-southeastward across the southern U.S. on Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance southward across southern Alabama and southern Georgia during the day. South of the front, moderate instability is expected to develop as surface temperatures warm. Steepening low-level lapse rates in the afternoon should support an isolated wind-damage threat with storms that form near and ahead of the front.

..Broyles.. 05/31/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, June 3

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 310842 SPC AC 310842

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

DISCUSSION

Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6

A mid-level trough is forecast to move into the northern High Plains on Wednesday, into the upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday and into the Great Lakes on Friday. A moist and unstable airmass is forecast over the northern Plains, where a severe threat will be possible during the afternoon and evening on both Wednesday and Thursday. Large hail and severe wind gusts would be possible. The threat is forecast to be concentrated ahead of a cold front passing through the northern Plains. Considerable uncertainty exists concerning the timing of the front.

In the wake of the trough, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move into the northern Plains on Friday. Isolated severe storms will again be possible across the Dakotas Friday afternoon within an unstable airmass, but limited forcing would keep any severe threat more localized.

Further south across the southern and central Plains, a relatively broad corridor of moderate instability is forecast each afternoon from Wednesday to Friday. However, forcing is expected to remain limited, which should keep any severe threat isolated and conditional. ### Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8

On Saturday and Sunday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the northwestern U.S., as a shortwave ridge moves from the Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley. In the wake of the ridge, a secondary trough is forecast to move through the southern and central Plains. Isolated severe storms would be possible near this trough in the afternoon and evening on both Saturday and Sunday. However, the timing of the trough and distribution of instability surrounding the trough is considerably uncertain at this time.

..Broyles.. 05/31/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Thursday, June 4

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 310842 SPC AC 310842

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

DISCUSSION

Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6

A mid-level trough is forecast to move into the northern High Plains on Wednesday, into the upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday and into the Great Lakes on Friday. A moist and unstable airmass is forecast over the northern Plains, where a severe threat will be possible during the afternoon and evening on both Wednesday and Thursday. Large hail and severe wind gusts would be possible. The threat is forecast to be concentrated ahead of a cold front passing through the northern Plains. Considerable uncertainty exists concerning the timing of the front.

In the wake of the trough, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move into the northern Plains on Friday. Isolated severe storms will again be possible across the Dakotas Friday afternoon within an unstable airmass, but limited forcing would keep any severe threat more localized.

Further south across the southern and central Plains, a relatively broad corridor of moderate instability is forecast each afternoon from Wednesday to Friday. However, forcing is expected to remain limited, which should keep any severe threat isolated and conditional. ### Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8

On Saturday and Sunday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the northwestern U.S., as a shortwave ridge moves from the Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley. In the wake of the ridge, a secondary trough is forecast to move through the southern and central Plains. Isolated severe storms would be possible near this trough in the afternoon and evening on both Saturday and Sunday. However, the timing of the trough and distribution of instability surrounding the trough is considerably uncertain at this time.

..Broyles.. 05/31/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Friday, June 5

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 310842 SPC AC 310842

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

DISCUSSION

Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6

A mid-level trough is forecast to move into the northern High Plains on Wednesday, into the upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday and into the Great Lakes on Friday. A moist and unstable airmass is forecast over the northern Plains, where a severe threat will be possible during the afternoon and evening on both Wednesday and Thursday. Large hail and severe wind gusts would be possible. The threat is forecast to be concentrated ahead of a cold front passing through the northern Plains. Considerable uncertainty exists concerning the timing of the front.

In the wake of the trough, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move into the northern Plains on Friday. Isolated severe storms will again be possible across the Dakotas Friday afternoon within an unstable airmass, but limited forcing would keep any severe threat more localized.

Further south across the southern and central Plains, a relatively broad corridor of moderate instability is forecast each afternoon from Wednesday to Friday. However, forcing is expected to remain limited, which should keep any severe threat isolated and conditional. ### Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8

On Saturday and Sunday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the northwestern U.S., as a shortwave ridge moves from the Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley. In the wake of the ridge, a secondary trough is forecast to move through the southern and central Plains. Isolated severe storms would be possible near this trough in the afternoon and evening on both Saturday and Sunday. However, the timing of the trough and distribution of instability surrounding the trough is considerably uncertain at this time.

..Broyles.. 05/31/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, June 6

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 310842 SPC AC 310842

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

DISCUSSION

Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6

A mid-level trough is forecast to move into the northern High Plains on Wednesday, into the upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday and into the Great Lakes on Friday. A moist and unstable airmass is forecast over the northern Plains, where a severe threat will be possible during the afternoon and evening on both Wednesday and Thursday. Large hail and severe wind gusts would be possible. The threat is forecast to be concentrated ahead of a cold front passing through the northern Plains. Considerable uncertainty exists concerning the timing of the front.

In the wake of the trough, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move into the northern Plains on Friday. Isolated severe storms will again be possible across the Dakotas Friday afternoon within an unstable airmass, but limited forcing would keep any severe threat more localized.

Further south across the southern and central Plains, a relatively broad corridor of moderate instability is forecast each afternoon from Wednesday to Friday. However, forcing is expected to remain limited, which should keep any severe threat isolated and conditional. ### Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8

On Saturday and Sunday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the northwestern U.S., as a shortwave ridge moves from the Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley. In the wake of the ridge, a secondary trough is forecast to move through the southern and central Plains. Isolated severe storms would be possible near this trough in the afternoon and evening on both Saturday and Sunday. However, the timing of the trough and distribution of instability surrounding the trough is considerably uncertain at this time.

..Broyles.. 05/31/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, June 7

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 310842 SPC AC 310842

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

DISCUSSION

Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6

A mid-level trough is forecast to move into the northern High Plains on Wednesday, into the upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday and into the Great Lakes on Friday. A moist and unstable airmass is forecast over the northern Plains, where a severe threat will be possible during the afternoon and evening on both Wednesday and Thursday. Large hail and severe wind gusts would be possible. The threat is forecast to be concentrated ahead of a cold front passing through the northern Plains. Considerable uncertainty exists concerning the timing of the front.

In the wake of the trough, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move into the northern Plains on Friday. Isolated severe storms will again be possible across the Dakotas Friday afternoon within an unstable airmass, but limited forcing would keep any severe threat more localized.

Further south across the southern and central Plains, a relatively broad corridor of moderate instability is forecast each afternoon from Wednesday to Friday. However, forcing is expected to remain limited, which should keep any severe threat isolated and conditional. ### Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8

On Saturday and Sunday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the northwestern U.S., as a shortwave ridge moves from the Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley. In the wake of the ridge, a secondary trough is forecast to move through the southern and central Plains. Isolated severe storms would be possible near this trough in the afternoon and evening on both Saturday and Sunday. However, the timing of the trough and distribution of instability surrounding the trough is considerably uncertain at this time.

..Broyles.. 05/31/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Sunday, May 31

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 5%

Monday, June 1

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Tuesday, June 2

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Wednesday, June 3

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Thursday, June 4

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, June 5

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Saturday, June 6

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Sunday, June 7

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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