Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, November 14
Outlook Summary
A few strong thunderstorms capable of hail are possible this afternoon and evening over a small part of West Texas.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 141621
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026
Valid 141630Z - 151200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF WEST TEXAS
### SUMMARY
A few strong thunderstorms capable of hail are possible this afternoon and evening over a small part of West Texas.
West TX
A shortwave trough over central NM this morning will track eastward into west TX this afternoon. As this occurs, scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across eastern NM/west TX in a marginally unstable air mass. Visible satellite imagery continues to show considerable cloud cover, suggesting convection will likely be elevated. Nevertheless, steep mid level lapse rates, cold temperatures aloft, and strong deep layer shear will support occasional supercell structures capable of hail - mainly in the Lubbock vicinity. A consensus of morning CAMS and ML guidance also agree on this limited threat. Therefore have opted for a small MRGL risk area for this afternoon and early evening.
..Hart/Dean.. 11/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Sunday, November 15
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across central and south Texas.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 141728
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across central and south Texas.
Synopsis
A shortwave trough will advance across portions of the southern Plains on Sunday, with enhanced mid-level flow overspreading portions of western and southern/coastal Texas. A surface low will shift eastward across the southern Texas Panhandle into central Texas, with a cold front shifting southward through the period. Scattered thunderstorm activity is expected to be ongoing along and ahead of the advancing front, with a few strong to severe thunderstorms possible. Additional thunderstorm activity will develop with a deepening trough across the western US, though this is not expected to be severe.
Central and Southern TX
Guidance suggests that scattered thunderstorm activity will be ongoing at the start of the period near the surface low and frontal boundary extending from central Texas to the middle/upper Texas coast. Forcing for ascent and warm air advection will lead to a gradual increase in thunderstorm coverage with daytime heating. A narrow corridor of moderate instability is expected to develop across far south-central Texas to the middle Texas coast, with sufficiently strong deep layer shear to support stronger cores and perhaps transient supercells. Forecast soundings depict modest low-level clockwise curvature in the 0-1 km layer, which could support a brief tornado given 60 F dew points. The main hazards will likely be marginally severe hail and damaging wind.
As the front shifts southward with time, instability will become displaced southward with severe potential decreasing and becoming primarily offshore into the late afternoon/evening. Mode will likely become more linear, posing some increase in damaging wind potential before storms gradually shift offshore. Elevated buoyancy may linger behind the effective front into the overnight hours with a low-end risk for hail with the remaining storms.
..Halbert-E.. 11/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Monday, November 16
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are not forecast over the US Monday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 141919
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not forecast over the US Monday.
Synopsis
A trough will deepen across the western US coast on D3/Monday. Shower activity will be expected along an eastward moving cold front from the Great Basin to the Intermountain West. Generally poor thermodynamic profiles will limit thunder potential. Heights will rise across the central US as a mid-level ridge increases in strength. A surface high will strengthen across the Ohio Valley, strengthening surface pressure gradients and reinforcing offshore flow over much of the US, limiting available surface moisture. A cold front will shift offshore into the Gulf early in the period, further limiting moisture and thunderstorm potential inland. A few post frontal showers will remain along the Texas coast into Louisiana. Overall, thunderstorms are not forecast over the US Monday.
..Halbert-E.. 11/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Tuesday, November 17
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, November 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, November 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, November 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, November 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, November 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140954 SPC AC 140954
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Mid-level ridging is expected to persist for several days early next week as the overall upper-air pattern becomes increasingly amplified. An upper trough over the West Coast will eject eastward across the Southwest and southern Rockies mid week, deepening a surface low across the High Plains. Isolated thunderstorms are possible, but continued offshore flow will likely restrict available surface moisture with this system.
Later in the week and into next weekend, a second stronger upper low is forecast to move onshore as the upper ridge weakens and shifts to the southeast. This may allow for more substantial return moisture and sufficient destabilization for isolated severe storms across portions of the central/southern Plains D6/Thursday-D8/Saturday. However, uncertainty on the timing of the upper trough, the quality of the low-level moisture and the resulting buoyancy remains very high.
..Lyons.. 11/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, November 18
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, November 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, November 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, November 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, November 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, November 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140954 SPC AC 140954
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Mid-level ridging is expected to persist for several days early next week as the overall upper-air pattern becomes increasingly amplified. An upper trough over the West Coast will eject eastward across the Southwest and southern Rockies mid week, deepening a surface low across the High Plains. Isolated thunderstorms are possible, but continued offshore flow will likely restrict available surface moisture with this system.
Later in the week and into next weekend, a second stronger upper low is forecast to move onshore as the upper ridge weakens and shifts to the southeast. This may allow for more substantial return moisture and sufficient destabilization for isolated severe storms across portions of the central/southern Plains D6/Thursday-D8/Saturday. However, uncertainty on the timing of the upper trough, the quality of the low-level moisture and the resulting buoyancy remains very high.
..Lyons.. 11/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, November 19
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, November 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, November 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, November 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, November 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, November 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140954 SPC AC 140954
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Mid-level ridging is expected to persist for several days early next week as the overall upper-air pattern becomes increasingly amplified. An upper trough over the West Coast will eject eastward across the Southwest and southern Rockies mid week, deepening a surface low across the High Plains. Isolated thunderstorms are possible, but continued offshore flow will likely restrict available surface moisture with this system.
Later in the week and into next weekend, a second stronger upper low is forecast to move onshore as the upper ridge weakens and shifts to the southeast. This may allow for more substantial return moisture and sufficient destabilization for isolated severe storms across portions of the central/southern Plains D6/Thursday-D8/Saturday. However, uncertainty on the timing of the upper trough, the quality of the low-level moisture and the resulting buoyancy remains very high.
..Lyons.. 11/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, November 20
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, November 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, November 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, November 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, November 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, November 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140954 SPC AC 140954
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Mid-level ridging is expected to persist for several days early next week as the overall upper-air pattern becomes increasingly amplified. An upper trough over the West Coast will eject eastward across the Southwest and southern Rockies mid week, deepening a surface low across the High Plains. Isolated thunderstorms are possible, but continued offshore flow will likely restrict available surface moisture with this system.
Later in the week and into next weekend, a second stronger upper low is forecast to move onshore as the upper ridge weakens and shifts to the southeast. This may allow for more substantial return moisture and sufficient destabilization for isolated severe storms across portions of the central/southern Plains D6/Thursday-D8/Saturday. However, uncertainty on the timing of the upper trough, the quality of the low-level moisture and the resulting buoyancy remains very high.
..Lyons.. 11/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, November 21
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, November 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, November 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, November 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, November 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, November 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140954 SPC AC 140954
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Mid-level ridging is expected to persist for several days early next week as the overall upper-air pattern becomes increasingly amplified. An upper trough over the West Coast will eject eastward across the Southwest and southern Rockies mid week, deepening a surface low across the High Plains. Isolated thunderstorms are possible, but continued offshore flow will likely restrict available surface moisture with this system.
Later in the week and into next weekend, a second stronger upper low is forecast to move onshore as the upper ridge weakens and shifts to the southeast. This may allow for more substantial return moisture and sufficient destabilization for isolated severe storms across portions of the central/southern Plains D6/Thursday-D8/Saturday. However, uncertainty on the timing of the upper trough, the quality of the low-level moisture and the resulting buoyancy remains very high.
..Lyons.. 11/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, November 14
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: low
- Sunday, November 15
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Monday, November 16
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Tuesday, November 17
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, November 18
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, November 19
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, November 20
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, November 21
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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