Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Monday, June 22

Tuesday, June 23

Wednesday, June 24

Thursday, June 25

Friday, June 26

Saturday, June 27

Sunday, June 28

Monday, June 29

Outlook for Monday, June 22

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and perhaps a couple of tornadoes should occur mainly this afternoon and evening across portions of the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast. Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are also expected across the northern/central High Plains, with large to very large hail the main threat.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 5%

wind 15%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 221238

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Valid 221300Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC…AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and perhaps a couple of tornadoes should occur mainly this afternoon and evening across portions of the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast. Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are also expected across the northern/central High Plains, with large to very large hail the main threat.

ArkLaTex into the Mid-South and Southeast

A weakened but persistent MCS continues this morning across AR into northeast TX. This cluster will track east-southeastward towards the lower MS Valley over the next few hours while gradually weakening. But, it should still pose some risk for isolated to widely scattered damaging winds in the short term. The convectively augmented MCV attendant to the ongoing MCS will also move east-northeastward across the lower MS Valley and Mid-South/central Gulf Coast states through the day. Gradual destabilization of a rather moist low-level airmass (surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 70s) should occur, even with widespread cloudiness hampering daytime heating to some extent. Modestly enhanced westerly mid-level flow associated with the MCV and broad upper troughing over the eastern CONUS should support sufficient deep-layer shear for modest updraft organization. Multiple clusters and perhaps marginal supercells capable of producing mainly scattered damaging winds should develop along/south of a front this afternoon, and spread eastward across much of the Southeast through at least the early evening. A tornado or two may also occur in close proximity to the MCV track, but low-level flow is forecast to be fairly veered and modest.

Mid-Atlantic

A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward today from the OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Recent visible satellite imagery shows fairly expansive cloud cover over much of the northern Mid-Atlantic, with clearer skies farther south into southern VA and vicinity. 12Z observed soundings across this region show poor lapse rates aloft, which should hamper any more than weak instability developing this afternoon, even with filtered daytime heating. Still, strengthening mid-level westerly winds and large-scale ascent preceding the shortwave trough will likely encourage scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop this afternoon across the higher terrain of the central Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains. These multicell clusters should pose a threat for mainly scattered damaging winds as they spread east-northeastward towards the Atlantic Coast through the afternoon and evening. Marginal hail may occur with the strongest cores. A couple of tornadoes appear possible along/near a sharpening warm front in the MD/PA/NJ/DE vicinity, where low-level shear may become locally enhanced.

Northern/Central High Plains

Within a generally zonal mid-level pattern, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening across parts of the northern/central High Plains in a modest low-level upslope flow regime. Moderate instability will be aided by the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, and 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear will easily support supercells with an attendant threat for large to very large hail. These supercells may be fairly widely spaced, but will likely track south-southeastward through at least the early evening before weakening. A couple of tornadoes may occur with these supercells, particularly across parts of the NE Panhandle into northeast CO, where the best combination of low-level moisture, effective SRH, and favorable convective mode should overlap for a few hours. Latest short-term guidance continues to show low potential for upscale growth/MCS development tonight, but trends will be monitored.

..Gleason/Bunting.. 06/22/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, June 23

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe storms are expected across the central High Plains on Tuesday with isolated severe storms possible into the Upper Mississippi Valley. Large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 15%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 220558

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe storms are expected across the central High Plains on Tuesday with isolated severe storms possible into the Upper Mississippi Valley. Large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats.

Synopsis

An upper low initially over southern Canada will shift into the northern Plains with a belt of 40-50+ kt mid-level flow forecast across the northern and central Plains into the upper Midwest. In the low levels, an area of low pressure is forecast to develop from the northern Plains into upper MS Valley with a trailing boundary extending southwest into the central High Plains. Elsewhere, a cold front will move off the Mid-Atlantic Coast with the trailing extension of the boundary moving into the Southeast.

Central High Plains into the Central/Southern Plains

As mid-level flow strengthens across the Rockies, a lee cyclone will develop across eastern Colorado and result in strengthening upslope flow. Moderate to strong instability is expected within this zone. This instability, combined with nearly 50 knots of mid-level flow, will result in a supercell environment. Large to very large hail will be the primary threat from this activity. Eventual upscale growth into a cluster is expected, and a potential bowing MCS across western Kansas and potentially northern Oklahoma should result in an increasing severe wind threat during the evening and into the early overnight hours.

Portions of the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest

Some elevated storms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period from northern Nebraska into southeast South Dakota on the nose of a modest low-level jet. These storms could pose some large hail threat. Additional storms may develop along the front during the afternoon. Strong mid-level flow will result in adequate shear for storm organization, but instability may be the primary limiting factor. Extensive cloud cover may limit heating, but at least some pockets of greater destabilization are possible. Within these areas, a threat for isolated large hail may exist.

Southeast

A few strong storms capable of gusty winds appear possible Tuesday afternoon along and ahead of the synoptic front from the Gulf Coast to the eastern Carolinas. Poor lapse rates will be the primary limiting factor for damaging wind gusts. However, as the event gets closer and details regarding instability and frontal position become more clear, wind probabilities may be warranted.

..Bentley.. 06/22/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, June 24

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe storms are likely across the central High Plains on Wednesday with a threat for large to very large hail.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 220729

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe storms are likely across the central High Plains on Wednesday with a threat for large to very large hail.

Synopsis

Persistent moderate to strong mid-level west-northwesterly mid-level flow is forecast across the central High Plains on Wednesday. The surface pattern will be rather nebulous with a weak surface low in the Midwest and high pressure in its wake across the Plains.

Central High Plains to the Ozarks

An ongoing MCS at the beginning of the period may have some severe risk through the morning hours across Oklahoma/southern Kansas and into the Ozarks. Expect this MCS to weaken by mid-day as the low-level jet weakens and it outruns the stronger mid-level flow.

High pressure across the Plains will result in strengthening upslope flow across the central High Plains. Strong instability is forecast from northeast New Mexico to southeast Wyoming beneath the moderate to strong mid-level flow. This environment will support supercells capable of large to very large hail. For now have kept the threat mostly confined to the High Plains where the supercell threat is most likely. The low-level jet response across the Plains is not that strong Wednesday night and thus, upscale growth into an MCS is unclear. If a MCS becomes more likely, the Slight Risk would need to be expanded eastward in later outlooks.

..Bentley.. 06/22/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Thursday, June 25

Outlook Images

any severe 15%

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, June 25	15%
Day 5	Friday, June 26	predictability too low
Day 6	Saturday, June 27	predictability too low
Day 7	Sunday, June 28	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, June 29	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220855 SPC AC 220855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Thursday - Central/Northern High Plains

Upslope flow will strengthen across the central/northern High Plains on Thursday as a surface low deepens across the southern High Plains. This, combined with a passing mid-level jet streak and shortwave trough, should result in scattered storm development across the High Plains. The most likely corridor will exist from northern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and far southwestern South Dakota where the stronger mid-level flow/forcing overspreads the unstable warm sector.

Beyond Day 4 there will likely be multiple days with eventual severe weather probabilities given the amplifying trough across the Northwest and moderate mid-level flow overspreading the northern Plains where instability will also be quite strong. However, at this time, there is considerable uncertainty with the timing/location of each of the mid-level shortwave troughs, and for when the core of the jet streak associated with the Northwest CONUS low ejects into the Plains.

Due to these uncertainties, no probabilities have been added beyond Day 4, but eventual probabilities are anticipated in later outlooks.

..Bentley.. 06/22/2026

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Outlook for Friday, June 26

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, June 25	15%
Day 5	Friday, June 26	predictability too low
Day 6	Saturday, June 27	predictability too low
Day 7	Sunday, June 28	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, June 29	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220855 SPC AC 220855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Thursday - Central/Northern High Plains

Upslope flow will strengthen across the central/northern High Plains on Thursday as a surface low deepens across the southern High Plains. This, combined with a passing mid-level jet streak and shortwave trough, should result in scattered storm development across the High Plains. The most likely corridor will exist from northern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and far southwestern South Dakota where the stronger mid-level flow/forcing overspreads the unstable warm sector.

Beyond Day 4 there will likely be multiple days with eventual severe weather probabilities given the amplifying trough across the Northwest and moderate mid-level flow overspreading the northern Plains where instability will also be quite strong. However, at this time, there is considerable uncertainty with the timing/location of each of the mid-level shortwave troughs, and for when the core of the jet streak associated with the Northwest CONUS low ejects into the Plains.

Due to these uncertainties, no probabilities have been added beyond Day 4, but eventual probabilities are anticipated in later outlooks.

..Bentley.. 06/22/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, June 27

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, June 25	15%
Day 5	Friday, June 26	predictability too low
Day 6	Saturday, June 27	predictability too low
Day 7	Sunday, June 28	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, June 29	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220855 SPC AC 220855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Thursday - Central/Northern High Plains

Upslope flow will strengthen across the central/northern High Plains on Thursday as a surface low deepens across the southern High Plains. This, combined with a passing mid-level jet streak and shortwave trough, should result in scattered storm development across the High Plains. The most likely corridor will exist from northern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and far southwestern South Dakota where the stronger mid-level flow/forcing overspreads the unstable warm sector.

Beyond Day 4 there will likely be multiple days with eventual severe weather probabilities given the amplifying trough across the Northwest and moderate mid-level flow overspreading the northern Plains where instability will also be quite strong. However, at this time, there is considerable uncertainty with the timing/location of each of the mid-level shortwave troughs, and for when the core of the jet streak associated with the Northwest CONUS low ejects into the Plains.

Due to these uncertainties, no probabilities have been added beyond Day 4, but eventual probabilities are anticipated in later outlooks.

..Bentley.. 06/22/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Sunday, June 28

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, June 25	15%
Day 5	Friday, June 26	predictability too low
Day 6	Saturday, June 27	predictability too low
Day 7	Sunday, June 28	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, June 29	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220855 SPC AC 220855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Thursday - Central/Northern High Plains

Upslope flow will strengthen across the central/northern High Plains on Thursday as a surface low deepens across the southern High Plains. This, combined with a passing mid-level jet streak and shortwave trough, should result in scattered storm development across the High Plains. The most likely corridor will exist from northern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and far southwestern South Dakota where the stronger mid-level flow/forcing overspreads the unstable warm sector.

Beyond Day 4 there will likely be multiple days with eventual severe weather probabilities given the amplifying trough across the Northwest and moderate mid-level flow overspreading the northern Plains where instability will also be quite strong. However, at this time, there is considerable uncertainty with the timing/location of each of the mid-level shortwave troughs, and for when the core of the jet streak associated with the Northwest CONUS low ejects into the Plains.

Due to these uncertainties, no probabilities have been added beyond Day 4, but eventual probabilities are anticipated in later outlooks.

..Bentley.. 06/22/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Monday, June 29

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, June 25	15%
Day 5	Friday, June 26	predictability too low
Day 6	Saturday, June 27	predictability too low
Day 7	Sunday, June 28	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, June 29	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220855 SPC AC 220855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Thursday - Central/Northern High Plains

Upslope flow will strengthen across the central/northern High Plains on Thursday as a surface low deepens across the southern High Plains. This, combined with a passing mid-level jet streak and shortwave trough, should result in scattered storm development across the High Plains. The most likely corridor will exist from northern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and far southwestern South Dakota where the stronger mid-level flow/forcing overspreads the unstable warm sector.

Beyond Day 4 there will likely be multiple days with eventual severe weather probabilities given the amplifying trough across the Northwest and moderate mid-level flow overspreading the northern Plains where instability will also be quite strong. However, at this time, there is considerable uncertainty with the timing/location of each of the mid-level shortwave troughs, and for when the core of the jet streak associated with the Northwest CONUS low ejects into the Plains.

Due to these uncertainties, no probabilities have been added beyond Day 4, but eventual probabilities are anticipated in later outlooks.

..Bentley.. 06/22/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

National Risk Overview

Monday, June 22: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Tuesday, June 23: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Wednesday, June 24: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Thursday, June 25: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Friday, June 26: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, June 27: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, June 28: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, June 29: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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