Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, February 18
Outlook Summary
Organized severe weather is not expected today or tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 181956
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026
Valid 182000Z - 191200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Organized severe weather is not expected today or tonight.
20Z Update
Only minor changes were made to the ongoing thunderstorm forecast based on recent observational trends. See the previous discussion for additional information.
..Wendt.. 02/18/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026/
Synopsis
Recent satellite imagery shows a very active upper pattern with numerous shortwave troughs embedded within the broad troughing that covers the CONUS. Lead shortwave in this series is currently maturing over the Upper Midwest, with evolution into a cyclone expected by this evening. A pair of lower amplitude shortwaves exist farther west, one entering the central Plains and another over the southern Great Basin. Lastly, a strong shortwave is currently dropping quickly southward through the northeast Pacific, preceded by yet another low-amplitude shortwave moving into the central CA Coast.
All of these waves are displaced either north or west of the better low-level moisture, which is in place from central TX to the central Gulf Coast. This displacement will mitigate the overall severe potential, although thunderstorms are still expected across several areas, including the central Intermountain West into the central Rockies ahead of the southern Great Basin shortwave, and along the West Coast as the northeast Pacific shortwave drops south along the coast. Highest coverage ahead of the Great Basin wave will likely occur along the UT/CO this evening. Highest coverage along the West Coast is anticipated along OR coast where multiple bands should move through during the period. A secondary max is likely farther south in the Monterey Bay Vicinity late tonight/early tomorrow morning.
Isolated elevated thunderstorms also remain possible this afternoon from Lower MI into northeast OH/northwestern PA as the vorticity max currently over OH moves into the region. Mid-levels will be dry but lapse rates will be steep, and there could be just enough low-level moisture to support limited buoyancy and a few thunderstorms as the vorticity max moves through.
Lastly, strengthening low-level flow within the moistening low-level airmass could support a few isolated thunderstorms across Middle TN and adjacent far south-central KY tonight.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Thursday, February 19
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms, with potential to produce a few tornadoes, hail and damaging wind gusts, are possible across parts of the middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys Thursday afternoon into early evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 181729
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms, with potential to produce a few tornadoes, hail and damaging wind gusts, are possible across parts of the middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys Thursday afternoon into early evening.
Synopsis
A progressive mid-level flow regime, characterized by multiple low-amplitudes perturbations and strong west/southwesterly flow aloft is expected over the CONUS Day2/Thursday. The primary shortwave trough will move from the southern Rockies/Plains into the Midwest by 00z, assuming a slight negative tilt as multiple weaker preceding subtropical perturbation are absorbed. Strong ascent associated with the trough a 100+ kt mid-level jet streak will deepen a surface low over the eastern Plains, reaching the Great Lakes by early Friday.
Middle Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valley
As the upper trough and surface low approach the Mid MS Valley early Thursday, rapid low-level moistening is expected across parts of eastern MO western IL and the lower OH Valley. While moisture content is seasonably limited (surface dewpoints in the 50s to near 60 F), cooling mid-level temperatures ahead of the preceding subtropical shortwave trough will support some destabilization Thursday afternoon.
While instability will remain modest owing to limited boundary-layer moisture, clearing ahead of a surging dryline tied to the surface low will allow for diurnal heating. In combination with steepening mid-level lapse rates, around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is exacted by early afternoon. An arc of mainly cellular convection should develop by mid afternoon across far eastern MO and western to south-central IL and move quickly eastward. Amid very strong kinematic fields (EBWD 55+ kt) a supercell mode is expected. Strong low-level shear and the concentration of buoyancy in the lowest few km will favor strong vertical accelerations and stretching with seasonably cool mid-level temperatures. Hail is likely with the stronger rotating storms. Additionally, with backed low-level flow near the low/warm front and large low-level shear, (0-1 km BWD 25+ kt) a few tornadoes are possible.
As ascent spreads eastward, thunderstorm activity may eventually grow upscale enough to support increasing potential for damaging wind gusts given the strong background flow. However, decreasing buoyancy and weakening height falls with eastward extent should gradually limit convective intensity into parts of the middle OH Valley late Thursday evening.
..Lyons.. 02/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Friday, February 20
Outlook Summary
Probabilities for severe storms Friday through Friday night appear less than 5 percent across the U.S.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 181931
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Probabilities for severe storms Friday through Friday night appear less than 5 percent across the U.S.
Synopsis
Mid-level flow will remain strong and largely zonal over the southern US Day 3/Friday. A pronounced shortwave trough will move eastward toward the Atlantic Coast as subtropical ridging slowly builds over the Gulf Coast. A second low-amplitude trough over the Southwest will eject eastward and move into the Southeast early Saturday. A deep surface low associated with the first trough will occlude over the Great Lakes as its associated cold front continues to surge eastward across the upper OH valley. Trailing portions of the front will begin to stall across the Southeast and lower MS Valley Friday evening.
Lower MS Valley and Gulf Coast States
To the south of the strong southwesterly flow aloft, gradual moistening of the low-level air mass is likely Friday and Friday night along and south of the stalled front. While deep-layer ascent will be limited along the anticyclonic curved portion of the strong subtropical jet through much of the day, the approach of the secondary upper trough may support increased ascent late.
As mid/upper forcing for ascent moves eastward, it is expected to remain mostly to the cool side of the front. Some potential for stronger thunderstorm development seems likely to become focused along or just to the cool side of the frontal zone late Friday night into early Saturday. Low/mid-level lapse rates and buoyancy appear generally weak despite strong flow aloft. Model guidance also varies significantly on destabilization and moistening near the front. This, along with the late arrival of the stronger forcing suggests that while some stronger elevated storms are possible near the front, the risk is too conditional to introduce probabilities.
Upper OH Valley
As the surface low occludes, a strong cold front associated with the advancing upper trough will surge through portions of eastern OH and PA. A shallow line of weak convection is possible along the front owing to weak low-level moisture advection and strong ascent tied to the front. Largely devoid of meaningful buoyancy, little to no lightning is expected. Whoever, the presence of 100+ kt of mid-level flow could allow mixing of a few stronger wind gusts to the surface through the morning Friday. Minimal buoyancy and the lack of more robust moisture will preclude any severe probabilities.
..Lyons.. 02/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Saturday, February 21
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, February 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, February 22 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, February 23 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, February 24 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, February 25 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180956 SPC AC 180956
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range guidance indicates little further amplification of large-scale mid-level troughing across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific, but a broad embedded cyclonic circulation, with a number of shorter wavelength perturbations pivoting around its periphery, may continue to evolve through this coming weekend. These may be accompanied by multiple areas of surface cyclogenesis, including one cyclone with an occluding front which may advance into northern Pacific coastal areas late Saturday night into early Sunday. However, it appears that the coldest mid-level air, supportive of boundary-layer based destabilization conducive to thunderstorms, might remain offshore.
At the same time, downstream amplification of mid-level ridging may continue across the Rockies and Great Plains Saturday into Sunday, with subsequent amplification of troughing east of the Mississippi Valley through areas offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard Sunday through Monday. This is likely to be accompanied by cold surface ridging building south-southeastward to the lee of the Rockies, through much of the Gulf Basin, which probably will suppress convective potential through the remainder of the period.
While the environment may be at least conditionally supportive of strong to severe thunderstorm development along a frontal zone across parts of the eastern Gulf Coast into southern Atlantic Coast early this coming weekend, surface frontal wave development across inland areas on Saturday is forecast to remain weak, tending to minimize this potential.
..Kerr.. 02/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, February 22
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, February 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, February 22 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, February 23 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, February 24 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, February 25 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180956 SPC AC 180956
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range guidance indicates little further amplification of large-scale mid-level troughing across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific, but a broad embedded cyclonic circulation, with a number of shorter wavelength perturbations pivoting around its periphery, may continue to evolve through this coming weekend. These may be accompanied by multiple areas of surface cyclogenesis, including one cyclone with an occluding front which may advance into northern Pacific coastal areas late Saturday night into early Sunday. However, it appears that the coldest mid-level air, supportive of boundary-layer based destabilization conducive to thunderstorms, might remain offshore.
At the same time, downstream amplification of mid-level ridging may continue across the Rockies and Great Plains Saturday into Sunday, with subsequent amplification of troughing east of the Mississippi Valley through areas offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard Sunday through Monday. This is likely to be accompanied by cold surface ridging building south-southeastward to the lee of the Rockies, through much of the Gulf Basin, which probably will suppress convective potential through the remainder of the period.
While the environment may be at least conditionally supportive of strong to severe thunderstorm development along a frontal zone across parts of the eastern Gulf Coast into southern Atlantic Coast early this coming weekend, surface frontal wave development across inland areas on Saturday is forecast to remain weak, tending to minimize this potential.
..Kerr.. 02/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, February 23
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, February 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, February 22 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, February 23 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, February 24 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, February 25 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180956 SPC AC 180956
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range guidance indicates little further amplification of large-scale mid-level troughing across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific, but a broad embedded cyclonic circulation, with a number of shorter wavelength perturbations pivoting around its periphery, may continue to evolve through this coming weekend. These may be accompanied by multiple areas of surface cyclogenesis, including one cyclone with an occluding front which may advance into northern Pacific coastal areas late Saturday night into early Sunday. However, it appears that the coldest mid-level air, supportive of boundary-layer based destabilization conducive to thunderstorms, might remain offshore.
At the same time, downstream amplification of mid-level ridging may continue across the Rockies and Great Plains Saturday into Sunday, with subsequent amplification of troughing east of the Mississippi Valley through areas offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard Sunday through Monday. This is likely to be accompanied by cold surface ridging building south-southeastward to the lee of the Rockies, through much of the Gulf Basin, which probably will suppress convective potential through the remainder of the period.
While the environment may be at least conditionally supportive of strong to severe thunderstorm development along a frontal zone across parts of the eastern Gulf Coast into southern Atlantic Coast early this coming weekend, surface frontal wave development across inland areas on Saturday is forecast to remain weak, tending to minimize this potential.
..Kerr.. 02/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, February 24
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, February 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, February 22 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, February 23 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, February 24 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, February 25 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180956 SPC AC 180956
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range guidance indicates little further amplification of large-scale mid-level troughing across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific, but a broad embedded cyclonic circulation, with a number of shorter wavelength perturbations pivoting around its periphery, may continue to evolve through this coming weekend. These may be accompanied by multiple areas of surface cyclogenesis, including one cyclone with an occluding front which may advance into northern Pacific coastal areas late Saturday night into early Sunday. However, it appears that the coldest mid-level air, supportive of boundary-layer based destabilization conducive to thunderstorms, might remain offshore.
At the same time, downstream amplification of mid-level ridging may continue across the Rockies and Great Plains Saturday into Sunday, with subsequent amplification of troughing east of the Mississippi Valley through areas offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard Sunday through Monday. This is likely to be accompanied by cold surface ridging building south-southeastward to the lee of the Rockies, through much of the Gulf Basin, which probably will suppress convective potential through the remainder of the period.
While the environment may be at least conditionally supportive of strong to severe thunderstorm development along a frontal zone across parts of the eastern Gulf Coast into southern Atlantic Coast early this coming weekend, surface frontal wave development across inland areas on Saturday is forecast to remain weak, tending to minimize this potential.
..Kerr.. 02/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, February 25
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, February 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, February 22 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, February 23 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, February 24 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, February 25 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180956 SPC AC 180956
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range guidance indicates little further amplification of large-scale mid-level troughing across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific, but a broad embedded cyclonic circulation, with a number of shorter wavelength perturbations pivoting around its periphery, may continue to evolve through this coming weekend. These may be accompanied by multiple areas of surface cyclogenesis, including one cyclone with an occluding front which may advance into northern Pacific coastal areas late Saturday night into early Sunday. However, it appears that the coldest mid-level air, supportive of boundary-layer based destabilization conducive to thunderstorms, might remain offshore.
At the same time, downstream amplification of mid-level ridging may continue across the Rockies and Great Plains Saturday into Sunday, with subsequent amplification of troughing east of the Mississippi Valley through areas offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard Sunday through Monday. This is likely to be accompanied by cold surface ridging building south-southeastward to the lee of the Rockies, through much of the Gulf Basin, which probably will suppress convective potential through the remainder of the period.
While the environment may be at least conditionally supportive of strong to severe thunderstorm development along a frontal zone across parts of the eastern Gulf Coast into southern Atlantic Coast early this coming weekend, surface frontal wave development across inland areas on Saturday is forecast to remain weak, tending to minimize this potential.
..Kerr.. 02/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, February 18
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Thursday, February 19
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Friday, February 20
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Saturday, February 21
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, February 22
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, February 23
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, February 24
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, February 25
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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