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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Friday, July 17
Saturday, July 18
Sunday, July 19
Monday, July 20
Tuesday, July 21
Wednesday, July 22
Thursday, July 23
Friday, July 24

Outlook for Friday, July 17

Outlook Summary

Strong to potentially severe storms are possible today across parts of western Montana and northern Idaho, and also across parts of the Upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes. More isolated strong to severe storms with damaging wind gusts are possible over parts of the Ohio Valley and Southeast.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 5%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 171630

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Valid 171630Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS…UPPER GREAT LAKES…AND OHIO VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEAST

### SUMMARY

Strong to potentially severe storms are possible today across parts of western Montana and northern Idaho, and also across parts of the Upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes. More isolated strong to severe storms with damaging wind gusts are possible over parts of the Ohio Valley and Southeast.

Northern Rockies and northern High Plains

The region will be influenced by an increasingly progressive shortwave trough moving northeastward from off the Washington coast and over southern British Columbia. The preceding upper ridge will flatten/shift eastward particularly near the international border, with a plume of rich monsoonal moisture extending into the region, highlighted by prevalent middle 50s to lower 60s F dewpoints along the Continental Divide. Orographic lift and heating will promote the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon, especially across eastern/northern Idaho and western Montana. Steepened low-level lapse rates will potentially yield storms capable of isolated severe wind gusts beginning this afternoon and continuing into mid-late evening. Isolated large hail may occur with the stronger thunderstorm cores, especially over northwest Montana where deep-layer shear may exceed 30 kt.

Upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes

A decaying cluster of storms continues to spread southeastward across northern Michigan, and smoke will continue to be a factor regionally, albeit with some west-to-east abatement later today. A cold front associated with the upper wave will push southeastward across the Upper Midwest and provide a focus for thunderstorm redevelopment late this afternoon, and more so into this evening. Forecast model guidance shows moderate buoyancy developing today within a belt of 25-40 kt west-northwesterly 500-mb flow as upstream shortwave trough amplification occurs.

A few of the stronger thunderstorms could evolve into supercells and organized multicell clusters, although uncertainty persists regarding the overall magnitude/extent of today's severe potential. Isolated large hail and damaging gusts are the primary hazards, although a brief tornado risk may also develop in the areas surrounding Lake Superior. One or more clusters of strong to severe storms may persist into the overnight along the warm front.

Ohio Valley to the southern Appalachians and Florida

A moist and diurnally destabilizing airmass will support scattered to numerous storms developing by the mid afternoon. Some of the stronger water-loaded downdrafts will potentially be capable of 50-60 mph gusts and isolated wind damage.

West-central Texas

A weak mid- to upper-level low over west Texas will move little during the day while a warm/moist conveyor persists across southern into central parts of Texas. Despite very moist low levels and some enlargement of the low-level hodograph, weak flow in the mid levels should limit storm organization and meaningful supercell potential, more so favoring a heavy rain threat.

..Guyer/Thompson.. 07/17/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

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Outlook for Saturday, July 18

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, mainly Saturday afternoon into the evening. Some threat may linger into late Saturday night.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 5%

wind 45%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 171729

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, mainly Saturday afternoon into the evening. Some threat may linger into late Saturday night.

Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast

An active severe-weather day is expected Saturday from parts of the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic, as scattered to widespread storms move through an increasingly favorable environment. A 45% wind area has been added, resulting in a categorical upgrade to Level-3/Enhanced Risk. The Enhanced Risk area is a combination of multiple regimes which may eventually overlap, with some areas potentially seeing multiple rounds of strong to severe storms.

A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the northern Great Lakes vicinity through the day, before approaching New England by evening. In conjunction with this shortwave trough, a deepening surface low is expected to move across southern Quebec toward northern Maine, as a trailing cold front moves through the Great Lakes and eventually parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. A remnant surface front initially draped from southern NJ into western PA will lift northeastward as an effective warm front, in advance of the surface low and cold front.

As strengthening deep-layer wind fields overspread increasingly rich moisture, a broad region from the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Northeast will become supportive of organized convection and severe-thunderstorm potential. HRRR-based forecasts suggest that smoke will become less prominent from west to east by afternoon, which should allow for relatively strong diurnal heating and moderate destabilization in areas not affected by early-day convection. Effective shear of 35-45 kt will support organized clusters and possibly occasional supercells from the Lower Great Lakes into the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, while strong heating and steep low-level lapse rates will result in a favorable wind-damage environment within the somewhat weaker flow regime across the southern Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Carolinas.

Elevated convection may be ongoing or else develop during the morning across parts of PA/NY, within a warm-advection regime associated with the returning warm front. Depending on the timing of this convection and downstream heating/destabilization, some intensification of ongoing convection may occur by early afternoon. Additional development may occur along the southwest flank of early-day convection and related outflow, which may intensify and move across the northern Mid-Atlantic during the afternoon. In addition to a wind-damage threat, some hail and tornado potential may also evolve with any supercell development, given the presence of favorable effective SRH.

Farther north, a broken band of storms is expected to develop along the cold front and move across the Lower Great Lakes region, eventually reaching a larger part of OH/PA/NY by late afternoon or early evening. Additional storms may develop ahead of the frontal convection, depending on the extent of heating in the wake of early-day storms. Multiple wind-damage swaths may accompany this convection, along with some potential for isolated hail. Rich moisture and some enhancement to low-level SRH may also support a tornado threat with any discrete or embedded supercells, especially near the effective warm frontal zone or any remnant outflow boundaries from morning convection.

An initially separate regime of storm development and severe potential is expected to develop along/east of a surface trough across parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic into NC. While deep-layer flow will tend to weaken with somewhat southward extent, strong heating and steepening of low-level lapse rates will provide a favorable thermodynamic environment for downbursts and damaging outflow winds.

Depending on the extent of outflow from prefrontal storms, frontal convection may continue to pose at least an isolated severe threat through the evening as it spreads southeastward.

Parts of ID/MT

A mid/upper-level low initially near Vancouver Island is forecast to move east-northeastward as a shortwave trough across southern BC/AB on Saturday. This shortwave will only have a glancing influence on parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies, but modestly enhanced midlevel southwesterlies will be maintained across the region through the day/evening. Widely scattered storm development is again expected during the afternoon, with MLCAPE increasing to near 1000 J/kg and effective shear of 30+ kt supporting a threat of isolated hail and localized strong to severe gusts.

..Dean.. 07/17/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Sunday, July 19

Outlook Summary

Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may pose a risk for damaging wind gusts across portions of the southern Appalachians to the coastal Carolinas/southeast Virginia vicinity on Sunday.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 170626

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SC/NC INTO SOUTHEAST VA

### SUMMARY

Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may pose a risk for damaging wind gusts across portions of the southern Appalachians to the coastal Carolinas/southeast Virginia vicinity on Sunday.

Southern Appalachians to Coastal Carolinas/Southeast Virginia

Upper troughing will persist across the eastern U.S. on Sunday. A couple of embedded vorticity maxima within the base of the trough will move across the southern Appalachians/southern Mid-Atlantic region through early evening. Deep layer westerly flow will remain modest, but a very moist and strongly unstable airmass will be in place. Large instability coupled with PW values near 2 inches will support isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts. A corridor of relative greater risk may develop from southeast VA into eastern NC near a stalled frontal boundary and where vertical shear may be modestly stronger (25 kt effective shear).

Eastern ND into northern MN

Northwesterly flow aloft will strengthen on Sunday/Sunday night as upper ridging flattens a bit as an upper shortwave trough emerges over the Canadian Prairies. Vertically veering wind profiles will foster 30+ kt effective shear magnitudes and a few organized cells could develop. Some potential for capping could limit storm coverage, but any storm that develops could be a higher-based supercell capable of severe hail and strong gusts.

..Leitman.. 07/17/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Monday, July 20

Outlook Images

any severe 15%

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Monday, July 20 15%
Day 5 Tuesday, July 21 15%
Day 6 Wednesday, July 22 15%
Day 7 Thursday, July 23 predictability too low
Day 8 Friday, July 24 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170755 SPC AC 170755

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-6/Mon-Wed – Great Lakes/Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast

A shortwave upper trough initially over the Canadian Prairies and northern Plains will develop east/southeast across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Monday, then the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic vicinity on Tuesday. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough will develop across the Great Lakes to the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday. These features will support enhancement of mid/upper level flow as a surface low tracks across Ontario/Quebec and New England during this time. A trailing cold front will likewise progress east/southeast over this three day period, with a very moist and unstable airmass present ahead of the front. This overall pattern will likely bring multiple days of severe storm potential from the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes to portions of the Ohio Valley, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic vicinity Monday through Wednesday, necessitating severe probabilities. While these areas may shift some over the coming day as the timing of mesoscale features and influence of prior days convection becomes more clear, these general regions are most likely to see at least isolated to widely scattered damaging wind potential as the upper trough and surface cold front sweep across the area.

Days 7-8/Thu-Fri

Surface high pressure building behind the aforementioned surface cold front will become centered over the Midwest late in the forecast period. Upper troughing will persist across the East while an amplified upper ridge remains oriented from TX to MT. Overall, severe potential appears low late in the forecast period.

..Leitman.. 07/17/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, July 21

Outlook Images

any severe 15%

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Monday, July 20 15%
Day 5 Tuesday, July 21 15%
Day 6 Wednesday, July 22 15%
Day 7 Thursday, July 23 predictability too low
Day 8 Friday, July 24 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170755 SPC AC 170755

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-6/Mon-Wed – Great Lakes/Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast

A shortwave upper trough initially over the Canadian Prairies and northern Plains will develop east/southeast across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Monday, then the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic vicinity on Tuesday. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough will develop across the Great Lakes to the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday. These features will support enhancement of mid/upper level flow as a surface low tracks across Ontario/Quebec and New England during this time. A trailing cold front will likewise progress east/southeast over this three day period, with a very moist and unstable airmass present ahead of the front. This overall pattern will likely bring multiple days of severe storm potential from the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes to portions of the Ohio Valley, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic vicinity Monday through Wednesday, necessitating severe probabilities. While these areas may shift some over the coming day as the timing of mesoscale features and influence of prior days convection becomes more clear, these general regions are most likely to see at least isolated to widely scattered damaging wind potential as the upper trough and surface cold front sweep across the area.

Days 7-8/Thu-Fri

Surface high pressure building behind the aforementioned surface cold front will become centered over the Midwest late in the forecast period. Upper troughing will persist across the East while an amplified upper ridge remains oriented from TX to MT. Overall, severe potential appears low late in the forecast period.

..Leitman.. 07/17/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, July 22

Outlook Images

any severe 15%

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Monday, July 20 15%
Day 5 Tuesday, July 21 15%
Day 6 Wednesday, July 22 15%
Day 7 Thursday, July 23 predictability too low
Day 8 Friday, July 24 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170755 SPC AC 170755

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-6/Mon-Wed – Great Lakes/Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast

A shortwave upper trough initially over the Canadian Prairies and northern Plains will develop east/southeast across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Monday, then the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic vicinity on Tuesday. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough will develop across the Great Lakes to the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday. These features will support enhancement of mid/upper level flow as a surface low tracks across Ontario/Quebec and New England during this time. A trailing cold front will likewise progress east/southeast over this three day period, with a very moist and unstable airmass present ahead of the front. This overall pattern will likely bring multiple days of severe storm potential from the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes to portions of the Ohio Valley, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic vicinity Monday through Wednesday, necessitating severe probabilities. While these areas may shift some over the coming day as the timing of mesoscale features and influence of prior days convection becomes more clear, these general regions are most likely to see at least isolated to widely scattered damaging wind potential as the upper trough and surface cold front sweep across the area.

Days 7-8/Thu-Fri

Surface high pressure building behind the aforementioned surface cold front will become centered over the Midwest late in the forecast period. Upper troughing will persist across the East while an amplified upper ridge remains oriented from TX to MT. Overall, severe potential appears low late in the forecast period.

..Leitman.. 07/17/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Thursday, July 23

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Monday, July 20 15%
Day 5 Tuesday, July 21 15%
Day 6 Wednesday, July 22 15%
Day 7 Thursday, July 23 predictability too low
Day 8 Friday, July 24 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170755 SPC AC 170755

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-6/Mon-Wed – Great Lakes/Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast

A shortwave upper trough initially over the Canadian Prairies and northern Plains will develop east/southeast across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Monday, then the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic vicinity on Tuesday. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough will develop across the Great Lakes to the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday. These features will support enhancement of mid/upper level flow as a surface low tracks across Ontario/Quebec and New England during this time. A trailing cold front will likewise progress east/southeast over this three day period, with a very moist and unstable airmass present ahead of the front. This overall pattern will likely bring multiple days of severe storm potential from the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes to portions of the Ohio Valley, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic vicinity Monday through Wednesday, necessitating severe probabilities. While these areas may shift some over the coming day as the timing of mesoscale features and influence of prior days convection becomes more clear, these general regions are most likely to see at least isolated to widely scattered damaging wind potential as the upper trough and surface cold front sweep across the area.

Days 7-8/Thu-Fri

Surface high pressure building behind the aforementioned surface cold front will become centered over the Midwest late in the forecast period. Upper troughing will persist across the East while an amplified upper ridge remains oriented from TX to MT. Overall, severe potential appears low late in the forecast period.

..Leitman.. 07/17/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Friday, July 24

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Monday, July 20 15%
Day 5 Tuesday, July 21 15%
Day 6 Wednesday, July 22 15%
Day 7 Thursday, July 23 predictability too low
Day 8 Friday, July 24 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170755 SPC AC 170755

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-6/Mon-Wed – Great Lakes/Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast

A shortwave upper trough initially over the Canadian Prairies and northern Plains will develop east/southeast across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Monday, then the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic vicinity on Tuesday. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough will develop across the Great Lakes to the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday. These features will support enhancement of mid/upper level flow as a surface low tracks across Ontario/Quebec and New England during this time. A trailing cold front will likewise progress east/southeast over this three day period, with a very moist and unstable airmass present ahead of the front. This overall pattern will likely bring multiple days of severe storm potential from the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes to portions of the Ohio Valley, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic vicinity Monday through Wednesday, necessitating severe probabilities. While these areas may shift some over the coming day as the timing of mesoscale features and influence of prior days convection becomes more clear, these general regions are most likely to see at least isolated to widely scattered damaging wind potential as the upper trough and surface cold front sweep across the area.

Days 7-8/Thu-Fri

Surface high pressure building behind the aforementioned surface cold front will become centered over the Midwest late in the forecast period. Upper troughing will persist across the East while an amplified upper ridge remains oriented from TX to MT. Overall, severe potential appears low late in the forecast period.

..Leitman.. 07/17/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

National Risk Overview

Friday, July 17
TORNADO: 2%
HAIL: 5%
WIND: 5%
Saturday, July 18
TORNADO: 5%
HAIL: 5%
WIND: 45%
Sunday, July 19
ANY SEVERE: 15%
Monday, July 20
ANY SEVERE: 15%
Tuesday, July 21
ANY SEVERE: 15%
Wednesday, July 22
ANY SEVERE: 15%
Thursday, July 23
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, July 24
ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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