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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Thursday, June 11

Outlook Summary

Strong to severe thunderstorm development, including one or two organizing clusters, will probably be accompanied by the potential for large hail, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a couple of strong tornadoes in a corridor across the Midwest into Great Lakes region Thursday through Thursday night.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 110619

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AMD EASTERN IOWA ### NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI…NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS…SOUTHERN WISCONSIN…NORTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN

### THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS THROUGH NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC VICINITY

### SUMMARY

Strong to severe thunderstorm development, including one or two organizing clusters, will probably be accompanied by the potential for large hail, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a couple of strong tornadoes in a corridor across the Midwest into Great Lakes region Thursday through Thursday night.

Synopsis

A potent mid-level trough will eject across the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes region today, with unseasonably strong 80-100 kt southwesterly mid-level flow over spreading portions of the upper-Midwest. An attendant surface low will deepen lift northward out of the central Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes, with a trailing cold front extending into the central/southern Plains and warm front/modifying outflow lifting northward into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes. Elsewhere, northwest flow is expected in the mid levels across the Mid-Atlantic, with a series of weaker disturbances moving through that region.

A severe MCS is expected to be ongoing at the start of the D1 period across portions of southern Iowa into western Illinois, posing a risk for strong to potential significant wind gusts. Additional development is expected behind the morning MCS along the cold front and in the vicinity of remnant outflow from the morning MCS. Supercells capable of large to very large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes (a few strong) will be possible before upscale growth and eventual evolution to a damaging wind threat into the evening.

Mid/lower Missouri Valley into the Mid Mississippi Valley and upper Great Lakes

The low-level jet is expected to strengthen this morning across the central Plains, with convection developing across southeastern Nebraska early this morning. This initial development will likely be supercellular and initially elevated, given strong deep layer shear and returning moisture. Large hail will be the main concern before cells cluster and beginning to organize along outflow. Hi-res guidance trends have been for an organized MCS to develop and spread eastward into portions of southern/central Iowa and northern Illinois. Given the strengthening upper level flow and increasing moisture, this will become surface based with the potential to produce strong to significant wind gusts (some 70-75+ mph) in the morning to mid-afternoon possibly extending into portions of Michigan.

Much of the afternoon severe potential remains contingent on how the morning MCS evolves. It is likely that a modifying outflow/warm front will lift northward and settle into northern Illinois/southern Wisconsin by the afternoon with the cold front further west. The continued strong low-level jet should support strong warm air advection and quick air mass recovery into northern Illinois/southern Wisconsin. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front and near the modifying boundary. Strongly sheared profiles will support initial supercells capable of large hail and tornadoes (a few of which may be strong to intense). There remains some uncertainty in where the placement of the boundary will be and how long discrete supercell storm modes can be maintained. It is possible that a corridor of higher tornado potential will become clear with need to include higher probabilities as details become clearer in further outlook updates.

Eventual upscale growth is anticipated as the frontal forcing shifts eastward. Bowing segments capable of strong to significant gusts will likely emerge. Wind probabilities were increased (with addition of a 45% area) with this outlook to account for the morning MCS and for potential for a secondary round of severe to significant wind gusts. It is possible that higher probabilities may be needed with further outlook updates.

Eastern Kansas into the Southern Plains

Additional thunderstorm development is expected along the trailing cold front into portions of the central/southern Plains. Deep layer shear will remain mostly post-frontal, however, around 20-30 kts effective bulk shear and moderate to strong instability will support some supercell structures capable of large hail and damaging wind. Storm motions and boundary parallel shear will likely lead to clustering and messy modes through time.

Mid-Atlantic into central Appalachians

Forcing for ascent from multiple short-wave disturbances across the northeast and dew points in the 60s to 70s will support development of widely scattered thunderstorm activity by the afternoon across the Mid-Atlantic into the central Appalachians. Though shear will be generally weak, moderate to strong instability will be in place will support stronger updrafts capable of damaging wind. It is likely that several clusters will emerge with potential for organizing along cold pools and more focused corridors of damaging wind potential. A 30% area was added with this outlook to cover this potential.

..Thornton/Lyons.. 06/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Friday, June 12

Outlook Summary

Widely scattered to scattered severe storms capable of mainly damaging wind gusts are expected from western New England and the Mid-Atlantic to eastern Tennessee and western North Carolina Friday afternoon and evening. Isolated occurrences of large hail appear possible from central New Mexico into far west Texas.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 110534

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA

### SUMMARY

Widely scattered to scattered severe storms capable of mainly damaging wind gusts are expected from western New England and the Mid-Atlantic to eastern Tennessee and western North Carolina Friday afternoon and evening. Isolated occurrences of large hail appear possible from central New Mexico into far west Texas.

Synopsis

A short-wave trough and attending 50 kt mid-level jet streak initially from the Upper Great Lakes into mid MS Valley are forecast to weaken while progressing through the OH Valley to along the St. Lawrence Valley. At the surface, a cold front initially from southwest Ontario to near the confluence of the OH and MS Rivers at 12z Friday will advance east/southeast into New England and Mid-Atlantic, where it will merge with a lee trough closer to the coast.

### Western New England and the Mid-Atlantic into the Central Appalachians

While mid-level lapse rates are not expected to be overly steep, the presence of a hot, moist boundary layer will largely contribute to moderate to strong instability Friday afternoon ahead of the cold front and in the vicinity of the lee trough. Thunderstorm development is expected by early to mid afternoon across portions of NY and PA within a zone of forcing for ascent preceding the mid-level wave. Additional storm development is likely through the afternoon along the front and/or favored terrain in the central and southern Appalachians. The strongest vertical shear is expected to lag the surface warm sector to the west, leading to a mix of multicells and line segments with the primary hazard being damaging wind gusts. Isolated occurrences of marginally severe hail may also accompany the strongest storms.

Individual thunderstorms are expected to gradually congeal into outflow-driven clusters by late afternoon into early evening, leading to a potentially more concentrated damaging-wind threat across the Mid-Atlantic.

### Central New Mexico into Far West Texas

Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop within a moist and moderately unstable upslope regime Friday afternoon. Vertical shear is forecast to be somewhat marginal for storm organization; however, the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates will be supportive of some large-hail potential with the strongest updrafts.

### Northern High Plains into Minnesota and Wisconsin

Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon within a marginally unstable environment, with some potential for gusty winds and/or small hail. Vertical shear is expected to be relatively strong, and if subsequent model runs indicate greater instability, severe-weather probabilities may need to be added.

..Mead.. 06/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Saturday, June 13

Outlook Summary

Widely scattered to scattered severe storms capable of all hazards appear possible Saturday afternoon and evening across portions of the central Plains into the lower Missouri Valley. More isolated severe weather appears possible across the upper Great Lakes, Ozark Plateau, and southern Plains.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 110724

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Widely scattered to scattered severe storms capable of all hazards appear possible Saturday afternoon and evening across portions of the central Plains into the lower Missouri Valley. More isolated severe weather appears possible across the upper Great Lakes, Ozark Plateau, and southern Plains.

Synopsis

A short-wave trough initially from the upper MS Valley into northern Rockies is forecast to amplify while pivoting east/southeast through the upper Midwest and mid/lower MO Valleys. That system will be attended by a belt of 50-60+ kt winds in the mid-levels, which are expected to extend from the mid MO Valley into the Great Lakes Saturday afternoon into night. At the surface, a cold front initially from the upper Midwest to low pressure over KS Saturday morning, will progress through the upper Great Lakes, mid/lower MO Valleys, and central Plains during the forecast period.

### Upper Great Lakes into Central and Southern Plains

The potential for early-day storms across portions of the mid MO Valley into the Ozark Plateau increases uncertainty in the location of afternoon/evening storms, as well as the distribution of instability across the region. Latest ensemble guidance indicates the highest likelihood for moderate to strong instability across portions of the central and southern Plains with greater spread in instability farther north across the upper Midwest into upper Great Lakes.

Current thinking is that diurnally enhanced thunderstorms appear most likely to the northeast of the KS surface low northeast along the adjacent segment of the front with lesser confidence in storm coverage with northeastward extent into the upper Great Lakes. Deep-layer shear is expected to be sufficiently strong for organized storm modes, including supercells from the central Plains into the upper Great Lakes with decreasing amounts of vertical shear into the southern Plains. Highest confidence in a more concentrated severe-weather episode remains centered across the central Plains into the lower MO Valley, where all hazards appear possible. Storms may eventually grow upscale into one or multiple complexes Saturday evening into night from the mid MS Valley through Ozark Plateau into the southern Plains.

..Mead.. 06/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Sunday, June 14

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110852 SPC AC 110852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Sunday

The 00z models have trended toward a much stronger short-wave trough and associated mid-level jet, which will progress from the Great Lakes and OH Valley into the Northeast. Elsewhere, a short-wave trough is forecast to move from the northern Rockies into the central Plains. At the surface, a cold front attendant to the Northeast short-wave trough will move through that region with the trailing extension of the boundary pushing south through the OH and TN Valleys into the Gulf Coast states.

A much stronger low-level jet is now forecast ahead of the cold front across the Northeast, which will aid in greater air mass destabilization than indicated in previous model runs. When coupled with notably stronger vertical shear, the setup appears favorable for organized severe storms across the Mid-Atlantic, potentially into southern New England Sunday afternoon and evening.

### Day 5/Monday

The models suggest the Sunday/central Plains short-wave trough will progress through the mid MS into OH Valleys with an associated belt of enhanced mid-level flow stretching from the central Plains into Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, there is good model agreement that the primary synoptic front and associated warm sector will lie across TX and the Gulf Coast states, to the south of the stronger mid-level winds and forcing for ascent. Some severe-weather threat may develop along and south of the front; however, the marginal vertical shear is expected to limit the overall severe-weather threat.

Slightly stronger vertical shear is forecast across the central and southern High Plains, due to an easterly upslope regime in the low-levels. While the potential for more organized storms will exist in that region, severe-weather coverage may only be isolated.

### Day 6/Tuesday

The ensemble mean and deterministic models are suggestive that a mid-level disturbance will track from the central Plains into the lower OH and TN Valleys, contributing to overall amplification of the long-wave trough in place east of the Rockies. The primary surface front is expected to remain in place across the Gulf Coast states, to the immediate south of the stronger forcing for ascent and mid-level flow. While isolated occurrences of severe weather appear possible from the southern High Plains into Southeast, the potential for an organized severe-weather event remains in question.

Days 7-8/Wednesday and Thursday

The ensemble means indicate the progression of a strong mid-level jet streak into the northern and central Plains Wednesday with that feature moving through the OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic Thursday. At the surface, the ensemble member low positions indicate clustering across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley Wednesday, and across the Great Lakes into Ontario on Thursday. The rapid poleward return of a moist and unstable air mass is expected to occur ahead of the surface low and associated frontal system. As such, some severe weather appears possible across parts of the Midwest Wednesday, and perhaps OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic Thursday.

..Mead.. 06/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, June 15

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110852 SPC AC 110852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Sunday

The 00z models have trended toward a much stronger short-wave trough and associated mid-level jet, which will progress from the Great Lakes and OH Valley into the Northeast. Elsewhere, a short-wave trough is forecast to move from the northern Rockies into the central Plains. At the surface, a cold front attendant to the Northeast short-wave trough will move through that region with the trailing extension of the boundary pushing south through the OH and TN Valleys into the Gulf Coast states.

A much stronger low-level jet is now forecast ahead of the cold front across the Northeast, which will aid in greater air mass destabilization than indicated in previous model runs. When coupled with notably stronger vertical shear, the setup appears favorable for organized severe storms across the Mid-Atlantic, potentially into southern New England Sunday afternoon and evening.

### Day 5/Monday

The models suggest the Sunday/central Plains short-wave trough will progress through the mid MS into OH Valleys with an associated belt of enhanced mid-level flow stretching from the central Plains into Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, there is good model agreement that the primary synoptic front and associated warm sector will lie across TX and the Gulf Coast states, to the south of the stronger mid-level winds and forcing for ascent. Some severe-weather threat may develop along and south of the front; however, the marginal vertical shear is expected to limit the overall severe-weather threat.

Slightly stronger vertical shear is forecast across the central and southern High Plains, due to an easterly upslope regime in the low-levels. While the potential for more organized storms will exist in that region, severe-weather coverage may only be isolated.

### Day 6/Tuesday

The ensemble mean and deterministic models are suggestive that a mid-level disturbance will track from the central Plains into the lower OH and TN Valleys, contributing to overall amplification of the long-wave trough in place east of the Rockies. The primary surface front is expected to remain in place across the Gulf Coast states, to the immediate south of the stronger forcing for ascent and mid-level flow. While isolated occurrences of severe weather appear possible from the southern High Plains into Southeast, the potential for an organized severe-weather event remains in question.

Days 7-8/Wednesday and Thursday

The ensemble means indicate the progression of a strong mid-level jet streak into the northern and central Plains Wednesday with that feature moving through the OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic Thursday. At the surface, the ensemble member low positions indicate clustering across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley Wednesday, and across the Great Lakes into Ontario on Thursday. The rapid poleward return of a moist and unstable air mass is expected to occur ahead of the surface low and associated frontal system. As such, some severe weather appears possible across parts of the Midwest Wednesday, and perhaps OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic Thursday.

..Mead.. 06/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, June 16

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110852 SPC AC 110852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Sunday

The 00z models have trended toward a much stronger short-wave trough and associated mid-level jet, which will progress from the Great Lakes and OH Valley into the Northeast. Elsewhere, a short-wave trough is forecast to move from the northern Rockies into the central Plains. At the surface, a cold front attendant to the Northeast short-wave trough will move through that region with the trailing extension of the boundary pushing south through the OH and TN Valleys into the Gulf Coast states.

A much stronger low-level jet is now forecast ahead of the cold front across the Northeast, which will aid in greater air mass destabilization than indicated in previous model runs. When coupled with notably stronger vertical shear, the setup appears favorable for organized severe storms across the Mid-Atlantic, potentially into southern New England Sunday afternoon and evening.

### Day 5/Monday

The models suggest the Sunday/central Plains short-wave trough will progress through the mid MS into OH Valleys with an associated belt of enhanced mid-level flow stretching from the central Plains into Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, there is good model agreement that the primary synoptic front and associated warm sector will lie across TX and the Gulf Coast states, to the south of the stronger mid-level winds and forcing for ascent. Some severe-weather threat may develop along and south of the front; however, the marginal vertical shear is expected to limit the overall severe-weather threat.

Slightly stronger vertical shear is forecast across the central and southern High Plains, due to an easterly upslope regime in the low-levels. While the potential for more organized storms will exist in that region, severe-weather coverage may only be isolated.

### Day 6/Tuesday

The ensemble mean and deterministic models are suggestive that a mid-level disturbance will track from the central Plains into the lower OH and TN Valleys, contributing to overall amplification of the long-wave trough in place east of the Rockies. The primary surface front is expected to remain in place across the Gulf Coast states, to the immediate south of the stronger forcing for ascent and mid-level flow. While isolated occurrences of severe weather appear possible from the southern High Plains into Southeast, the potential for an organized severe-weather event remains in question.

Days 7-8/Wednesday and Thursday

The ensemble means indicate the progression of a strong mid-level jet streak into the northern and central Plains Wednesday with that feature moving through the OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic Thursday. At the surface, the ensemble member low positions indicate clustering across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley Wednesday, and across the Great Lakes into Ontario on Thursday. The rapid poleward return of a moist and unstable air mass is expected to occur ahead of the surface low and associated frontal system. As such, some severe weather appears possible across parts of the Midwest Wednesday, and perhaps OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic Thursday.

..Mead.. 06/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, June 17

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110852 SPC AC 110852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Sunday

The 00z models have trended toward a much stronger short-wave trough and associated mid-level jet, which will progress from the Great Lakes and OH Valley into the Northeast. Elsewhere, a short-wave trough is forecast to move from the northern Rockies into the central Plains. At the surface, a cold front attendant to the Northeast short-wave trough will move through that region with the trailing extension of the boundary pushing south through the OH and TN Valleys into the Gulf Coast states.

A much stronger low-level jet is now forecast ahead of the cold front across the Northeast, which will aid in greater air mass destabilization than indicated in previous model runs. When coupled with notably stronger vertical shear, the setup appears favorable for organized severe storms across the Mid-Atlantic, potentially into southern New England Sunday afternoon and evening.

### Day 5/Monday

The models suggest the Sunday/central Plains short-wave trough will progress through the mid MS into OH Valleys with an associated belt of enhanced mid-level flow stretching from the central Plains into Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, there is good model agreement that the primary synoptic front and associated warm sector will lie across TX and the Gulf Coast states, to the south of the stronger mid-level winds and forcing for ascent. Some severe-weather threat may develop along and south of the front; however, the marginal vertical shear is expected to limit the overall severe-weather threat.

Slightly stronger vertical shear is forecast across the central and southern High Plains, due to an easterly upslope regime in the low-levels. While the potential for more organized storms will exist in that region, severe-weather coverage may only be isolated.

### Day 6/Tuesday

The ensemble mean and deterministic models are suggestive that a mid-level disturbance will track from the central Plains into the lower OH and TN Valleys, contributing to overall amplification of the long-wave trough in place east of the Rockies. The primary surface front is expected to remain in place across the Gulf Coast states, to the immediate south of the stronger forcing for ascent and mid-level flow. While isolated occurrences of severe weather appear possible from the southern High Plains into Southeast, the potential for an organized severe-weather event remains in question.

Days 7-8/Wednesday and Thursday

The ensemble means indicate the progression of a strong mid-level jet streak into the northern and central Plains Wednesday with that feature moving through the OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic Thursday. At the surface, the ensemble member low positions indicate clustering across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley Wednesday, and across the Great Lakes into Ontario on Thursday. The rapid poleward return of a moist and unstable air mass is expected to occur ahead of the surface low and associated frontal system. As such, some severe weather appears possible across parts of the Midwest Wednesday, and perhaps OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic Thursday.

..Mead.. 06/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Thursday, June 18

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110852 SPC AC 110852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Sunday

The 00z models have trended toward a much stronger short-wave trough and associated mid-level jet, which will progress from the Great Lakes and OH Valley into the Northeast. Elsewhere, a short-wave trough is forecast to move from the northern Rockies into the central Plains. At the surface, a cold front attendant to the Northeast short-wave trough will move through that region with the trailing extension of the boundary pushing south through the OH and TN Valleys into the Gulf Coast states.

A much stronger low-level jet is now forecast ahead of the cold front across the Northeast, which will aid in greater air mass destabilization than indicated in previous model runs. When coupled with notably stronger vertical shear, the setup appears favorable for organized severe storms across the Mid-Atlantic, potentially into southern New England Sunday afternoon and evening.

### Day 5/Monday

The models suggest the Sunday/central Plains short-wave trough will progress through the mid MS into OH Valleys with an associated belt of enhanced mid-level flow stretching from the central Plains into Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, there is good model agreement that the primary synoptic front and associated warm sector will lie across TX and the Gulf Coast states, to the south of the stronger mid-level winds and forcing for ascent. Some severe-weather threat may develop along and south of the front; however, the marginal vertical shear is expected to limit the overall severe-weather threat.

Slightly stronger vertical shear is forecast across the central and southern High Plains, due to an easterly upslope regime in the low-levels. While the potential for more organized storms will exist in that region, severe-weather coverage may only be isolated.

### Day 6/Tuesday

The ensemble mean and deterministic models are suggestive that a mid-level disturbance will track from the central Plains into the lower OH and TN Valleys, contributing to overall amplification of the long-wave trough in place east of the Rockies. The primary surface front is expected to remain in place across the Gulf Coast states, to the immediate south of the stronger forcing for ascent and mid-level flow. While isolated occurrences of severe weather appear possible from the southern High Plains into Southeast, the potential for an organized severe-weather event remains in question.

Days 7-8/Wednesday and Thursday

The ensemble means indicate the progression of a strong mid-level jet streak into the northern and central Plains Wednesday with that feature moving through the OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic Thursday. At the surface, the ensemble member low positions indicate clustering across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley Wednesday, and across the Great Lakes into Ontario on Thursday. The rapid poleward return of a moist and unstable air mass is expected to occur ahead of the surface low and associated frontal system. As such, some severe weather appears possible across parts of the Midwest Wednesday, and perhaps OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic Thursday.

..Mead.. 06/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Thursday, June 11

TORNADO: 10%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 45%

Friday, June 12

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 30%

Saturday, June 13

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Sunday, June 14

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Monday, June 15

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Tuesday, June 16

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Wednesday, June 17

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Thursday, June 18

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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