TORNADO HQ: waiting on update ...

Finding your location risk...

Severe Weather Outlook

show me my personal outlook →

Hayley here - Do you want to see severe weather in your calendar?


* it's like an add-on for your digital calendar NOT a paper calendar

National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Thursday, July 9
Friday, July 10
Saturday, July 11
Sunday, July 12
Monday, July 13
Tuesday, July 14
Wednesday, July 15
Thursday, July 16

Outlook for Thursday, July 9

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern Plains. Severe wind gusts may also occur in parts of the Ozarks, mid Mississippi Valley, lower Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and Arizona.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 15%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 091616

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026

Valid 091630Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS…FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY…AND PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHEAST

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern Plains. Severe wind gusts may also occur in parts of the Ozarks, mid Mississippi Valley, lower Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and Arizona.

Mid Atlantic

Hot and humid condition are present once again today over parts of the Mid Atlantic region, with dewpoints in the mid 70s and temperatures rising through the 80s. A weak shortwave trough passing across the central Appalachians will aid in the development of scattered afternoon thunderstorms over eastern WV/western VA southern PA, with storms tracking eastward through early evening. Sufficient westerly flow aloft and moderate CAPE values will result in scattered damaging winds over this area. Cloud cover in southeast PA/NY/DE lends some uncertainty to severe threat that far east, but storms are not expected to arrive in that area for several hours, allowing time for the clouds to erode somewhat.

Central High Plains

Similar to yesterday, scattered high-based thunderstorms will form over the mountains/foothills of CO/WY and spread eastward through the afternoon/evening. Forecast soundings suggest parameters favorable of locally damaging wind gusts with this activity, with an increasing risk as storms build eastward into greater low-level moisture. Several 12z CAMS suggest a linear MCS maintaining strong intensity into the night into western KS, with a continuing risk of damaging winds.

ND/SD

A convectively aided shortwave trough is moving eastward across ND/southern Manitoba. Thunderstorms are expected to intensify by late afternoon ahead of this feature from eastern ND into western SD. Forecast soundings show steep mid-level lapse rates and ample CAPE, along with favorable deep-layer shear for supercells. Large hail and damaging winds will be possible.

MO/IL/KY/IN

The remnants of an overnight MCS over MO will continue tracking eastward today into a very moist and moderately unstable air mass over parts of IL/IN/KY. This feature is weakening with time, but some mesoscale organization persists with a weak MCV noted over east-central MO. This may be sufficient to promote re-development of storms later today. If this occurs, the strongest cells could pose a damaging wind threat.

Low-level warm advection on the western flank of this system will result in the development of thunderstorms over western/central MO by late afternoon or early evening. Forecast soundings in this corridor show CAPE and shear profiles that would be favorable for supercell structures capable of damaging winds and perhaps hail. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

..Hart/Chalmers.. 07/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Friday, July 10

Outlook Summary

Clusters of thunderstorms, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts and some hail, may evolve in a corridor across parts of the south central Great Plains into the Tennessee Valley Friday afternoon and evening.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind 5%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 090456

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO ADJACENT CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AND OZARK PLATEAU INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Clusters of thunderstorms, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts and some hail, may evolve in a corridor across parts of the south central Great Plains into the Tennessee Valley Friday afternoon and evening.

Discussion

Latest model output indicates little general change from prior runs. To the southeast of a vigorous short wave trough digging offshore of the southern British Columbia coast, it appears that an increasingly prominent mid/upper-level high will begin to form across portions of the Colorado Valley/Plateau through southern Rockies vicinity late Friday through Friday night. Ridging to the north of the high is also forecast to continue building along an axis across the northern U.S. Great Plains into eastern Canadian Prairies, while downstream positively tilted larger-scale troughing gradually shifts into and across the northern Atlantic Seaboard.

The evolution of remnant weak troughing across the central Great Plains into lower Missouri Valley remains much more unclear, based on continuing varied model solutions However, a belt of westerlies to its south may remain convectively augmented in lower/mid-levels, though perhaps weaker than Thursday.

The potential for at least moderate destabilization remains most certain along the southern periphery of this regime, aided by a corridor of steeper lower through mid-tropospheric lapse rates associated with elevated mixed-layer air (probably based closer to 850 mb than 700 mb), above a seasonably moist boundary-layer. The latitude at which this will become focused remains a bit uncertain, and by late Friday afternoon will largely depend on where outflow from prior convection ends up and the extent to which it modifies. However, corridors of stronger differential heating and developing low-level warm advection might contribute to an environment conducive to the evolution of at least small organizing clusters with potential to produce severe wind and hail across eastern portions of the central Great Plains into the Tennessee Valley through Friday evening.

In the wake of the eastward migrating weak mid-level trough, convection-allowing guidance suggests that easterly low-level flow into portions of the Front Range, Sangre de Cristo Mountains and Raton Mesa/ridge vicinity will be sufficiently moist and unstable, in the presence of steep lapse rates, to support scattered strong thunderstorm development. Some of these may become capable of producing severe hail and wind.

..Kerr.. 07/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Saturday, July 11

Outlook Summary

Strong thunderstorms with potential to produce a few damaging wind gusts are possible in a corridor across the south central Great Plains through Mid South and Tennessee Valley Saturday afternoon and evening.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 090715

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS THROUGH THE MID SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Strong thunderstorms with potential to produce a few damaging wind gusts are possible in a corridor across the south central Great Plains through Mid South and Tennessee Valley Saturday afternoon and evening.

Discussion

Large-scale mid/upper ridging is forecast to continue building across much of interior North America through this period, with the strong core of the ridge expanding northeastward and encompassing much of the Four Corners states through middle Missouri Valley by late Saturday night. While one notable short wave trough is forced inland across the British Columbia coast, increasingly split downstream troughing is forecast to progress toward the northwestern Atlantic, and offshore of the north Atlantic Seaboard. A lingering mid-level shear axis, trailing to the west of the latter troughing, may slowly continue to shift south of the Mid Atlantic and lower Ohio/Missouri Valleys through the period.

In general, the risk for organized severe convection appears low Saturday through Saturday night, or at least dependent on mesoscale perturbations with low predictability at this time frame. However, there does appear a general consensus among model output that lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates may remain steep enough, above a seasonably moist boundary layer, to contribute to moderate CAPE (on the order of 1500-2000+ J/kg) in advance of the southward advancing shear axis. By late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening, this may focus strong thunderstorm development in a corridor from the south central Great Plains into the Tennessee Valley. Some of this activity may evolve into small clusters with potential to produce strong to locally severe surface gusts.

..Kerr.. 07/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Sunday, July 12

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Sunday, July 12 potential too low
Day 5 Monday, July 13 predictability too low
Day 6 Tuesday, July 14 predictability too low
Day 7 Wednesday, July 15 predictability too low
Day 8 Thursday, July 16 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090900 SPC AC 090900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range models continue to indicate that the center of strong mid-level ridging building northeast of the Four Corners states will shift across the middle Missouri Valley early next week, where it may reach peak intensity by about Tuesday, before becoming suppressed. Even as this commences, mid-level ridging in the westerlies may be maintained near and north/northeast of the international border, from the Great Plains through the Great Lakes, while large-scale downstream troughing amplifies southeastward across the Northeast.

Associated with this evolution, a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air still appears likely to advect on the southern fringe of a belt of strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of this ridging. As the nose of the warmer air overspreads the Great Lakes region early next week, forcing for ascent associated with warm advection could begin supporting organizing thunderstorm clusters potentially impacting portions of New England, and/or the lower Great Lakes through Mid Atlantic.

As guidance suggests that the westerlies will initially remain split downstream of the ridge, and a potentially notable short wave trough (and associated cold front) migrating around its periphery and eventually suppressing it, it remains unclear how potential frontal and pre-frontal convection will pan out on any particular day. Due to both synoptic and sub-synoptic predictability issues, severe probabilities remain at less than 15 percent in the day 6-8 time frame. However, this probably will change in later outlooks closer to this time period, when the potential for introducing unduly large forecast false alarm decreases.

..Kerr.. 07/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Monday, July 13

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Sunday, July 12 potential too low
Day 5 Monday, July 13 predictability too low
Day 6 Tuesday, July 14 predictability too low
Day 7 Wednesday, July 15 predictability too low
Day 8 Thursday, July 16 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090900 SPC AC 090900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range models continue to indicate that the center of strong mid-level ridging building northeast of the Four Corners states will shift across the middle Missouri Valley early next week, where it may reach peak intensity by about Tuesday, before becoming suppressed. Even as this commences, mid-level ridging in the westerlies may be maintained near and north/northeast of the international border, from the Great Plains through the Great Lakes, while large-scale downstream troughing amplifies southeastward across the Northeast.

Associated with this evolution, a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air still appears likely to advect on the southern fringe of a belt of strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of this ridging. As the nose of the warmer air overspreads the Great Lakes region early next week, forcing for ascent associated with warm advection could begin supporting organizing thunderstorm clusters potentially impacting portions of New England, and/or the lower Great Lakes through Mid Atlantic.

As guidance suggests that the westerlies will initially remain split downstream of the ridge, and a potentially notable short wave trough (and associated cold front) migrating around its periphery and eventually suppressing it, it remains unclear how potential frontal and pre-frontal convection will pan out on any particular day. Due to both synoptic and sub-synoptic predictability issues, severe probabilities remain at less than 15 percent in the day 6-8 time frame. However, this probably will change in later outlooks closer to this time period, when the potential for introducing unduly large forecast false alarm decreases.

..Kerr.. 07/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Tuesday, July 14

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Sunday, July 12 potential too low
Day 5 Monday, July 13 predictability too low
Day 6 Tuesday, July 14 predictability too low
Day 7 Wednesday, July 15 predictability too low
Day 8 Thursday, July 16 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090900 SPC AC 090900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range models continue to indicate that the center of strong mid-level ridging building northeast of the Four Corners states will shift across the middle Missouri Valley early next week, where it may reach peak intensity by about Tuesday, before becoming suppressed. Even as this commences, mid-level ridging in the westerlies may be maintained near and north/northeast of the international border, from the Great Plains through the Great Lakes, while large-scale downstream troughing amplifies southeastward across the Northeast.

Associated with this evolution, a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air still appears likely to advect on the southern fringe of a belt of strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of this ridging. As the nose of the warmer air overspreads the Great Lakes region early next week, forcing for ascent associated with warm advection could begin supporting organizing thunderstorm clusters potentially impacting portions of New England, and/or the lower Great Lakes through Mid Atlantic.

As guidance suggests that the westerlies will initially remain split downstream of the ridge, and a potentially notable short wave trough (and associated cold front) migrating around its periphery and eventually suppressing it, it remains unclear how potential frontal and pre-frontal convection will pan out on any particular day. Due to both synoptic and sub-synoptic predictability issues, severe probabilities remain at less than 15 percent in the day 6-8 time frame. However, this probably will change in later outlooks closer to this time period, when the potential for introducing unduly large forecast false alarm decreases.

..Kerr.. 07/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Wednesday, July 15

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Sunday, July 12 potential too low
Day 5 Monday, July 13 predictability too low
Day 6 Tuesday, July 14 predictability too low
Day 7 Wednesday, July 15 predictability too low
Day 8 Thursday, July 16 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090900 SPC AC 090900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range models continue to indicate that the center of strong mid-level ridging building northeast of the Four Corners states will shift across the middle Missouri Valley early next week, where it may reach peak intensity by about Tuesday, before becoming suppressed. Even as this commences, mid-level ridging in the westerlies may be maintained near and north/northeast of the international border, from the Great Plains through the Great Lakes, while large-scale downstream troughing amplifies southeastward across the Northeast.

Associated with this evolution, a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air still appears likely to advect on the southern fringe of a belt of strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of this ridging. As the nose of the warmer air overspreads the Great Lakes region early next week, forcing for ascent associated with warm advection could begin supporting organizing thunderstorm clusters potentially impacting portions of New England, and/or the lower Great Lakes through Mid Atlantic.

As guidance suggests that the westerlies will initially remain split downstream of the ridge, and a potentially notable short wave trough (and associated cold front) migrating around its periphery and eventually suppressing it, it remains unclear how potential frontal and pre-frontal convection will pan out on any particular day. Due to both synoptic and sub-synoptic predictability issues, severe probabilities remain at less than 15 percent in the day 6-8 time frame. However, this probably will change in later outlooks closer to this time period, when the potential for introducing unduly large forecast false alarm decreases.

..Kerr.. 07/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Thursday, July 16

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Sunday, July 12 potential too low
Day 5 Monday, July 13 predictability too low
Day 6 Tuesday, July 14 predictability too low
Day 7 Wednesday, July 15 predictability too low
Day 8 Thursday, July 16 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090900 SPC AC 090900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range models continue to indicate that the center of strong mid-level ridging building northeast of the Four Corners states will shift across the middle Missouri Valley early next week, where it may reach peak intensity by about Tuesday, before becoming suppressed. Even as this commences, mid-level ridging in the westerlies may be maintained near and north/northeast of the international border, from the Great Plains through the Great Lakes, while large-scale downstream troughing amplifies southeastward across the Northeast.

Associated with this evolution, a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air still appears likely to advect on the southern fringe of a belt of strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of this ridging. As the nose of the warmer air overspreads the Great Lakes region early next week, forcing for ascent associated with warm advection could begin supporting organizing thunderstorm clusters potentially impacting portions of New England, and/or the lower Great Lakes through Mid Atlantic.

As guidance suggests that the westerlies will initially remain split downstream of the ridge, and a potentially notable short wave trough (and associated cold front) migrating around its periphery and eventually suppressing it, it remains unclear how potential frontal and pre-frontal convection will pan out on any particular day. Due to both synoptic and sub-synoptic predictability issues, severe probabilities remain at less than 15 percent in the day 6-8 time frame. However, this probably will change in later outlooks closer to this time period, when the potential for introducing unduly large forecast false alarm decreases.

..Kerr.. 07/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

National Risk Overview

Thursday, July 9
TORNADO: 2%
HAIL: 15%
WIND: 15%
Friday, July 10
TORNADO: low
HAIL: 5%
WIND: 5%
Saturday, July 11
ANY SEVERE: 5%
Sunday, July 12
ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, July 13
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, July 14
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, July 15
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, July 16
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Your Severe Outlook

Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.

Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.


Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.

 

Severe Weather Outlook Amazon link →


About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.