Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, August 27
Outlook Summary
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Northeast today. Damaging wind, hail and a tornado or two may accompany these storms. Large to very large hail and severe gusts are also possible across parts of western Nebraska and northwest Kansas.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 270555
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST…AND ALSO ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NE INTO NORTHWEST KS
### SUMMARY
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Northeast today. Damaging wind, hail and a tornado or two may accompany these storms. Large to very large hail and severe gusts are also possible across parts of western Nebraska and northwest Kansas.
Mid-Atlantic/Northeast into parts of the central/southern Appalachians
An upper trough will remain in place over much of the eastern CONUS today. Moderate destabilization will be possible along/ahead of a weak surface trough/front extending from central NY/PA into the central/southern Appalachians. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by mid/late afternoon, with sufficient deep-layer flow/shear for some storm organization (especially from the northern Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast). The strongest cells/clusters will be capable of producing scattered damaging winds and at least isolated hail. Modestly enlarged low-level hodographs may also support some brief-tornado potential. Some severe threat may persist into the evening before storms weaken and/or move offshore.
Father south, deep-layer flow/shear will be weaker into parts of the central/southern Appalachians, but scattered storm development within a relatively warm and well-mixed environment will support potential for localized strong/damaging gusts.
Central Plains
Moderate to locally strong destabilization is expected across parts of the central High Plains this afternoon, beneath modest northwesterly mid/upper-level flow. While large-scale ascent will generally remain rather modest, a subtle midlevel vorticity maximum may aid in isolated to widely scattered storm development from far southwest SD into western/central NE. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for supercells, with steep lapse rates and relatively elongated hodographs supporting potential for large to very large hail, in addition to a threat for localized severe gusts. 00Z CAM guidance shows some uptick in storm coverage within this favorable environment, and a 15% hail area has been added for parts of west-central NE into northwest KS. Some guidance (notably the 00Z HRRR) also shows upscale growth and an attendant swath of severe-wind potential, though this scenario remains more uncertain. Greater wind probabilities may eventually be needed if confidence increases in the MCS scenario.
Surrounding the Level-2/Slight Risk, a more isolated threat of severe hail and wind may accompany the strongest cells from parts of the Raton Mesa and CO Front Range vicinity into eastern WY.
Western/central Montana
Despite rather limited low-level moisture, widely scattered storm development is expected this afternoon across parts of western/central MT, aided by strong heating and the influence of a midlevel shortwave trough and jet maximum that are forecast to crest the amplified upper ridge that is covering much of the interior West. Steep lapse rates will support potential for localized downbursts and strong to severe outflow gusts as storms spread east-northeastward across MT.
Northeast NV/northwest UT/southeast ID
High-based storm development is also expected from parts of northeast NV into northwest UT and southeast ID. While deep-layer flow and storm organization will likely be somewhat weaker compared to areas farther north, steep lapse rates and large DCAPE will support potential for strong to severe outflow gusts from this afternoon into the early evening.
South-central TX into the LA Gulf Coast region
Uncertainty remains regarding how far south an ongoing storm cluster and its attendant outflow will move across parts of LA/MS early this morning. If this cluster persists to the beginning of the forecast period (as forecast by the 00Z HRRR), then a localized wind-damage threat will be possible near the immediate LA/MS Gulf Coast before storms move offshore. If the cluster weakens and more substantial recovery and diurnal destabilization occurs later today (as forecast by more recent HRRR runs and some other HREF members), then storm redevelopment will be possible by afternoon, potentially aided by a remnant MCV. This scenario could also result in a localized wind-damage threat.
Farther west, scattered storm development is forecast across south-central TX this afternoon, near a weak southward-moving cold front. Deep-layer shear will likely remain quite weak, but moderate buoyancy, large PW, and steep low-level lapse rates will support potential for localized downbursts. Despite the weak shear, the northerly flow regime may result in one or more outflow-driven clusters that will move southward into the early evening before weakening.
..Dean/Weinman.. 08/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Friday, August 28
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across northern Georgia into the Carolinas and Virginia and the northern/central Plains.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 270559
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across northern Georgia into the Carolinas and Virginia and the northern/central Plains.
North Georgia to the Carolinas
Moderate to potentially strong instability is forecast to develop south of a stalled cold front from the southern Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic where upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will be present. Lapse rates will be quite weak (~6 C/km), but most guidance shows temperatures warming into the low to mid 80s which should provide pockets of moderate to strong instability. Effective shear is forecast to be weak (15 to 20 knots), but only slight modifications in the effective layer calculation result in significantly greater effective shear (30 to 35 knots) given moderate to strong flow above 7km. Therefore, any storms that can take advantage of this stronger flow aloft may be longer-lived and capable of some damaging wind gusts.
Central/Northern Nebraska into central and eastern South Dakota and Vicinity
A mid-level ridge will slowly deamplify through the day on Friday across the northern Plains. As this occurs, lee troughing will strengthen through the day with a lee cyclone forecast to develop across western South Dakota by early Saturday morning. Strengthening southeasterly flow ahead of the lee trough will advect low to potentially mid 60s dewpoints into South Dakota. This will result in moderate to potentially strong instability in the region. However, most forecast soundings show the environment remaining capped for much of the day which casts some doubt on diurnal storm coverage. Some 00Z CAM guidance shows storms prior to 00Z across western portions of the Marginal Risk area, but without strong forcing, it is unclear if these storms will develop. Given the capped airmass, the primary storm focus will likely be across northeast Nebraska and eastern South Dakota, at the nose of the low-level jet where warm-air advection will strengthen in the evening. Forecast soundings show moderate to strong instability and strong shear within this zone after 00Z. Large hail may be the primary threat in the evening with the wind threat more dependent on potential upscale growth.
..Bentley.. 08/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Saturday, August 29
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible in parts of the northern Great Basin and across the northern Plains.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 270728
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible in parts of the northern Great Basin and across the northern Plains.
Northern Great Basin Vicinity
A broad range of 00Z guidance (GFS/RRFS/NAM) shows moderate instability developing across northern Utah on Saturday amid strong surface heating. Forecast soundings show an uncapped airmass by mid-afternoon when scattered thunderstorm activity is expected to begin. 45 to 50 knots of mid-level flow will support storm organization/longevity and some damaging wind threat (some 75+ mph). The ECMWF is the least unstable, with more cloud-cover across the region, which may limit the severe weather threat somewhat. Nonetheless, even this ECMWF solution would likely support some severe wind threat. Therefore, a Marginal Risk seems warranted, and if all guidance trends toward the more unstable solution, an upgrade to Slight Risk may be needed in later outlooks.
Northern Plains
Moderate to strong instability is forecast across the Northern Plains on Saturday within a moist region to the north of a surface low. Forcing will be relatively weak, but subtle height falls and perhaps a weak mid-level shortwave trough embedded within the southwesterly flow, may be sufficient for isolated to widely scattered storms Saturday afternoon/evening. Forecast soundings show long hodographs across the region which would support a supercell storm mode. A Marginal Risk has been added for this threat, but the lack of stronger forcing precludes higher probabilities at this time.
..Bentley.. 08/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Sunday, August 30
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, August 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, August 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, September 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, September 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, September 3 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270758 SPC AC 270758
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Sunday - Northern Plains
Some severe weather is possible across the northern Plains on Sunday, but details remain unclear. The primary mid-level shortwave trough and associated large-scale ascent is expected to traverse northern Montana and North Dakota. However, the greater instability is focused farther southeast across eastern South Dakota and southwest Montana. The ECMWF shows enough instability developing farther north into south-central North Dakota to support some severe weather threat. The uncertainties regarding destabilization and storm coverage preclude severe weather probabilities at this time.
D5 and Beyond
The forecast next week features multiple mid-level shortwave troughs and considerable uncertainty with the timing of these features. However, there is a larger scale trend toward a ridge building across the Plains with northwesterly flow from the Upper Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/New England. Moderate to strong instability along this corridor will support some severe weather potential next week. However, specific areas of greater severe weather potential will depend on the timing and amplitude of embedded mid-level shortwave troughs. Therefore, no probabilities can be added at this time.
..Bentley.. 08/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, August 31
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, August 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, August 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, September 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, September 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, September 3 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270758 SPC AC 270758
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Sunday - Northern Plains
Some severe weather is possible across the northern Plains on Sunday, but details remain unclear. The primary mid-level shortwave trough and associated large-scale ascent is expected to traverse northern Montana and North Dakota. However, the greater instability is focused farther southeast across eastern South Dakota and southwest Montana. The ECMWF shows enough instability developing farther north into south-central North Dakota to support some severe weather threat. The uncertainties regarding destabilization and storm coverage preclude severe weather probabilities at this time.
D5 and Beyond
The forecast next week features multiple mid-level shortwave troughs and considerable uncertainty with the timing of these features. However, there is a larger scale trend toward a ridge building across the Plains with northwesterly flow from the Upper Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/New England. Moderate to strong instability along this corridor will support some severe weather potential next week. However, specific areas of greater severe weather potential will depend on the timing and amplitude of embedded mid-level shortwave troughs. Therefore, no probabilities can be added at this time.
..Bentley.. 08/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, September 1
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, August 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, August 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, September 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, September 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, September 3 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270758 SPC AC 270758
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Sunday - Northern Plains
Some severe weather is possible across the northern Plains on Sunday, but details remain unclear. The primary mid-level shortwave trough and associated large-scale ascent is expected to traverse northern Montana and North Dakota. However, the greater instability is focused farther southeast across eastern South Dakota and southwest Montana. The ECMWF shows enough instability developing farther north into south-central North Dakota to support some severe weather threat. The uncertainties regarding destabilization and storm coverage preclude severe weather probabilities at this time.
D5 and Beyond
The forecast next week features multiple mid-level shortwave troughs and considerable uncertainty with the timing of these features. However, there is a larger scale trend toward a ridge building across the Plains with northwesterly flow from the Upper Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/New England. Moderate to strong instability along this corridor will support some severe weather potential next week. However, specific areas of greater severe weather potential will depend on the timing and amplitude of embedded mid-level shortwave troughs. Therefore, no probabilities can be added at this time.
..Bentley.. 08/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, September 2
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, August 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, August 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, September 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, September 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, September 3 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270758 SPC AC 270758
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Sunday - Northern Plains
Some severe weather is possible across the northern Plains on Sunday, but details remain unclear. The primary mid-level shortwave trough and associated large-scale ascent is expected to traverse northern Montana and North Dakota. However, the greater instability is focused farther southeast across eastern South Dakota and southwest Montana. The ECMWF shows enough instability developing farther north into south-central North Dakota to support some severe weather threat. The uncertainties regarding destabilization and storm coverage preclude severe weather probabilities at this time.
D5 and Beyond
The forecast next week features multiple mid-level shortwave troughs and considerable uncertainty with the timing of these features. However, there is a larger scale trend toward a ridge building across the Plains with northwesterly flow from the Upper Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/New England. Moderate to strong instability along this corridor will support some severe weather potential next week. However, specific areas of greater severe weather potential will depend on the timing and amplitude of embedded mid-level shortwave troughs. Therefore, no probabilities can be added at this time.
..Bentley.. 08/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, September 3
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, August 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, August 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, September 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, September 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, September 3 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270758 SPC AC 270758
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Sunday - Northern Plains
Some severe weather is possible across the northern Plains on Sunday, but details remain unclear. The primary mid-level shortwave trough and associated large-scale ascent is expected to traverse northern Montana and North Dakota. However, the greater instability is focused farther southeast across eastern South Dakota and southwest Montana. The ECMWF shows enough instability developing farther north into south-central North Dakota to support some severe weather threat. The uncertainties regarding destabilization and storm coverage preclude severe weather probabilities at this time.
D5 and Beyond
The forecast next week features multiple mid-level shortwave troughs and considerable uncertainty with the timing of these features. However, there is a larger scale trend toward a ridge building across the Plains with northwesterly flow from the Upper Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/New England. Moderate to strong instability along this corridor will support some severe weather potential next week. However, specific areas of greater severe weather potential will depend on the timing and amplitude of embedded mid-level shortwave troughs. Therefore, no probabilities can be added at this time.
..Bentley.. 08/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, August 27
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Friday, August 28
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Saturday, August 29
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Sunday, August 30
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, August 31
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, September 1
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, September 2
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, September 3
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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