Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Thursday, June 18

Friday, June 19

Saturday, June 20

Sunday, June 21

Monday, June 22

Tuesday, June 23

Wednesday, June 24

Thursday, June 25

Outlook for Thursday, June 18

Outlook Summary

Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from Kentucky and the central Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic, with primarily damaging wind gusts or marginal hail. Scattered severe storms are possible from upstate New York into New England, with damaging wind gusts and tornado potential. A few tornadoes may also occur over parts of the middle Gulf Coast states, and scattered storms may produce gusty winds or marginal hail from Oklahoma into western North Texas.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 10%

wind 15%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 181301

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Valid 181300Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST

### SUMMARY

Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from Kentucky and the central Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic, with primarily damaging wind gusts or marginal hail. Scattered severe storms are possible from upstate New York into New England, with damaging wind gusts and tornado potential. A few tornadoes may also occur over parts of the middle Gulf Coast states, and scattered storms may produce gusty winds or marginal hail from Oklahoma into western North Texas.

Central Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic/North Carolina

The region will be influenced by lingering long-lived overnight-upscale-transitioning linear segments that moved across Kentucky/West Virginia, that will likely continue to pose a severe risk early today, mainly in the form of damaging winds. This may be even as updraft/storm intensities somewhat trend downward over the mountains. Even if weakening occurs early today east of the Appalachians spine, residual outflow/differential heating and potential MCV influences should help focus redevelopment/re-intensification into the Piedmont later today, with additional development westward toward the Cumberland Plateau along the residual convective boundary as well as the east/southeastward-advancing front. Moderate diurnal destabilization aside, organized severe potential will be aided by seasonally strong winds through the low/mid-troposphere, even with a tendency for low-level winds to weaken into this afternoon.

Northeast States

Within a broader area of cyclonic flow aloft, a leading shortwave trough will move from the Lower Great Lakes into the Northeast, with a 90 kt mid-level speed max and cooling aloft moving across New York and parts of New England during the day. Low pressure will develop into southern Quebec, with a cold front extending southward into the region.

Surface heating and gusty south winds will bring 60s F dewpoints into the area with up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE expected. Relatively warm profiles will develop near 300 mb, somewhat limiting storm depth. However, ample mid-level cooling will still support sufficient destabilization and the development of intensifying low-topped storms into the afternoon. Pronounced deep-layer/low-level shear and backed surface winds ahead of the cold front will favor low-topped supercells. Cells should develop/further increase over northern New York through midday/early afternoon and will move quickly east. Damaging winds, a couple of tornadoes, and hail will all be possible, although smaller hail may be more likely given the low EL heights.

Gulf Coast including parts of LA/MS/AL/GA/FL

Already strong mid/low-level winds across southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi, associated with the remnants of Arthur, will further increase and spread east-northeastward across Alabama and Florida Panhandle toward Georgia, as a weak surface low and mid-level wave spread northeast regionally. The strong low-level shear and mid 70s F dewpoints will support organized bands of storms with embedded stronger/rotating cells capable of a northeastward-transitioning tornado risk today.

Oklahoma/southern Kansas to western North Texas

Isolated mostly elevated severe storms capable of hail will remain possible early today across southeast Kansas and northern Oklahoma and possibly southwest Missouri. These storms could linger today and also pose some damaging wind risk. Additional deep convection may develop into late afternoon/early evening within a very unstable environment across western Oklahoma into western North Texas near the southward-shifting front and surface low/dryline across Texas, with isolated large hail and damaging winds possible.

..Guyer/Broyles.. 06/18/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

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Outlook for Friday, June 19

Outlook Summary

Isolated strong storms may produce gusty winds and hail across the Upper Midwest. Additional strong thunderstorms may produce damaging wind gusts from north Texas/southern Oklahoma through portions of the Gulf Coast states and into the coastal Carolinas.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 5%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 180524

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST…AND FROM NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST

### SUMMARY

Isolated strong storms may produce gusty winds and hail across the Upper Midwest. Additional strong thunderstorms may produce damaging wind gusts from north Texas/southern Oklahoma through portions of the Gulf Coast states and into the coastal Carolinas.

Minnesota/Wisconsin

An upper shortwave trough will migrate across the Upper Midwest on Friday. This will bring a belt of enhanced northwesterly flow aloft across the region. In the wake of a prior frontal passage, boundary-layer moisture will be very modest (generally 50s F dewpoints), but cool temperatures aloft and midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km will support weak destabilization (around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE). Forecast soundings show vertically veering wind profiles and elongated/straight hodographs with around 35-40 kt effective shear magnitudes. Isolated higher-based supercells will be possible. Steepened low-level lapse rates and the relatively dry boundary-layer will support isolated strong gusts. Isolated marginally severe hail also will be possible.

ArkLaTex vicinity through the Gulf Coast states

Most forecast guidance depicts an ongoing MCS across North Texas or far southern OK at Friday morning. Strong gusts will be possible with this system through the morning given modestly enhanced mid/upper flow and a corridor of strong instability across the ArkLaTex vicinity. This MCS and/or remnant MCV may continue east/southeast across east TX or toward the lower MS Valley through the day, tracking along a southward-sagging surface boundary.

Further east across the Gulf Coast vicinity, a very moist airmass will be in place, with PW values near 2 inches common. This will aid in moderate destabilization ahead of a west to east oriented surface boundary. Vertical shear will be weak, but water laden downdrafts could support isolated microbursts. It is unclear if convection will be able to organize along the surface boundary into a forward propagating cluster, but if this occurs, damaging wind potential would increase.

Coastal Carolinas

A mid/upper shortwave trough will move across the area through afternoon. Some guidance depicts a small MCS or cluster associated with a strong low-level jet during the morning. As this feature spreads northeast along the coast through afternoon, strong gusts will be possible.

Florida

A seasonally moist and unstable airmass will reside across north/central FL on Friday. Parts of the state will be on the southern fringes of stronger mid-level flow associated with the upper shortwave trough moving across the Carolinas. Some forecast soundings show 20-30 kt midlevel low, and this may be sufficient for transient organized cells along parts of the east coast. Additional storms will be possible across the Panhandle and northern FL as convection develops southward across the area ahead of a southward-sagging surface boundary. Ample moisture/high PW values and moderate instability will support occasional strong gusts with the strongest storms.

..Leitman.. 06/18/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Saturday, June 20

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central Plains vicinity from Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 180619

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central Plains vicinity from Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening.

Central Plains

An upper ridge will initially be centered over the High Plains on Saturday. An upper shortwave trough over the eastern Great Basin will develop eastward, emerging over the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains by 00z, and breaking down upper ridging. As this occurs, mid/upper level flow will increase and a lee low will deepen in the vicinity of eastern CO. A surface trough/dryline will extend southward near the CO/KS border and along the NM/TX border. Increasing south/southeasterly low-level flow will transport rich boundary layer moisture (mid/upper 60s F dewpoints) northward across KS, with low to mid 60s F dewpoints possible across much of NE. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop the moistening boundary layer will result in a moderate destabilization (MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/kg) across the central High Plains and portions of central/eastern NE/KS.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within upslope flow along the surface trough from far southeast WY into eastern CO. As storms develop east/southeast with time, an increasing southerly low-level jet may foster upscale development into one or more bowing segments. Overall, supercell wind profiles suggest large hail and perhaps tornadoes will be possible. If storms grow upscale, damaging wind potential will increase during the evening.

..Leitman.. 06/18/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Sunday, June 21

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, June 21	predictability too low
Day 5	Monday, June 22	predictability too low
Day 6	Tuesday, June 23	predictability too low
Day 7	Wednesday, June 24	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, June 25	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180703 SPC AC 180703

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Sunday - Mid-MS Valley vicinity

A weak mid/upper shortwave trough over the Mid-MO Valley Sunday morning across the Mid-MS and lower OH Valley regions through the period. A surface low over the central Plains will spread east in tandem with the upper system, though the latitude at which this occurs is uncertain. Furthermore, an ongoing MCS could be located somewhere across eastern NE/KS and the adjacent MO Valley Sunday morning. How this convection evolves through the day is also uncertain. Nevertheless, rich boundary layer moisture will be in place across the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley, with moderate to strong destabilization likely to the south of a surface boundary oriented northwest to southeast across portions of the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys. Some where risk appears likely, either from reinvigorated morning convection, or from new storm development along outflow. Given uncertainty into placement of key features, will hold off on introducing 15 percent probabilities at this time, but areas will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks.

Days 5-8/Monday-Thursday - Plains to the Midwest and Southeast

Modest west to northwesterly flow aloft will persist east of the Rockies through much of the forecast period. Organized severe potential is uncertain due to a lack of notable large scale forcing. While some severe risk is likely each day, this risk will be driven by mesoscale processes and convective evolution each day. Overall predictability is low through most of next week.

..Leitman.. 06/18/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, June 22

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, June 21	predictability too low
Day 5	Monday, June 22	predictability too low
Day 6	Tuesday, June 23	predictability too low
Day 7	Wednesday, June 24	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, June 25	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180703 SPC AC 180703

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Sunday - Mid-MS Valley vicinity

A weak mid/upper shortwave trough over the Mid-MO Valley Sunday morning across the Mid-MS and lower OH Valley regions through the period. A surface low over the central Plains will spread east in tandem with the upper system, though the latitude at which this occurs is uncertain. Furthermore, an ongoing MCS could be located somewhere across eastern NE/KS and the adjacent MO Valley Sunday morning. How this convection evolves through the day is also uncertain. Nevertheless, rich boundary layer moisture will be in place across the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley, with moderate to strong destabilization likely to the south of a surface boundary oriented northwest to southeast across portions of the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys. Some where risk appears likely, either from reinvigorated morning convection, or from new storm development along outflow. Given uncertainty into placement of key features, will hold off on introducing 15 percent probabilities at this time, but areas will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks.

Days 5-8/Monday-Thursday - Plains to the Midwest and Southeast

Modest west to northwesterly flow aloft will persist east of the Rockies through much of the forecast period. Organized severe potential is uncertain due to a lack of notable large scale forcing. While some severe risk is likely each day, this risk will be driven by mesoscale processes and convective evolution each day. Overall predictability is low through most of next week.

..Leitman.. 06/18/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Tuesday, June 23

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, June 21	predictability too low
Day 5	Monday, June 22	predictability too low
Day 6	Tuesday, June 23	predictability too low
Day 7	Wednesday, June 24	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, June 25	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180703 SPC AC 180703

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Sunday - Mid-MS Valley vicinity

A weak mid/upper shortwave trough over the Mid-MO Valley Sunday morning across the Mid-MS and lower OH Valley regions through the period. A surface low over the central Plains will spread east in tandem with the upper system, though the latitude at which this occurs is uncertain. Furthermore, an ongoing MCS could be located somewhere across eastern NE/KS and the adjacent MO Valley Sunday morning. How this convection evolves through the day is also uncertain. Nevertheless, rich boundary layer moisture will be in place across the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley, with moderate to strong destabilization likely to the south of a surface boundary oriented northwest to southeast across portions of the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys. Some where risk appears likely, either from reinvigorated morning convection, or from new storm development along outflow. Given uncertainty into placement of key features, will hold off on introducing 15 percent probabilities at this time, but areas will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks.

Days 5-8/Monday-Thursday - Plains to the Midwest and Southeast

Modest west to northwesterly flow aloft will persist east of the Rockies through much of the forecast period. Organized severe potential is uncertain due to a lack of notable large scale forcing. While some severe risk is likely each day, this risk will be driven by mesoscale processes and convective evolution each day. Overall predictability is low through most of next week.

..Leitman.. 06/18/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Wednesday, June 24

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, June 21	predictability too low
Day 5	Monday, June 22	predictability too low
Day 6	Tuesday, June 23	predictability too low
Day 7	Wednesday, June 24	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, June 25	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180703 SPC AC 180703

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Sunday - Mid-MS Valley vicinity

A weak mid/upper shortwave trough over the Mid-MO Valley Sunday morning across the Mid-MS and lower OH Valley regions through the period. A surface low over the central Plains will spread east in tandem with the upper system, though the latitude at which this occurs is uncertain. Furthermore, an ongoing MCS could be located somewhere across eastern NE/KS and the adjacent MO Valley Sunday morning. How this convection evolves through the day is also uncertain. Nevertheless, rich boundary layer moisture will be in place across the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley, with moderate to strong destabilization likely to the south of a surface boundary oriented northwest to southeast across portions of the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys. Some where risk appears likely, either from reinvigorated morning convection, or from new storm development along outflow. Given uncertainty into placement of key features, will hold off on introducing 15 percent probabilities at this time, but areas will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks.

Days 5-8/Monday-Thursday - Plains to the Midwest and Southeast

Modest west to northwesterly flow aloft will persist east of the Rockies through much of the forecast period. Organized severe potential is uncertain due to a lack of notable large scale forcing. While some severe risk is likely each day, this risk will be driven by mesoscale processes and convective evolution each day. Overall predictability is low through most of next week.

..Leitman.. 06/18/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Thursday, June 25

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, June 21	predictability too low
Day 5	Monday, June 22	predictability too low
Day 6	Tuesday, June 23	predictability too low
Day 7	Wednesday, June 24	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, June 25	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180703 SPC AC 180703

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Sunday - Mid-MS Valley vicinity

A weak mid/upper shortwave trough over the Mid-MO Valley Sunday morning across the Mid-MS and lower OH Valley regions through the period. A surface low over the central Plains will spread east in tandem with the upper system, though the latitude at which this occurs is uncertain. Furthermore, an ongoing MCS could be located somewhere across eastern NE/KS and the adjacent MO Valley Sunday morning. How this convection evolves through the day is also uncertain. Nevertheless, rich boundary layer moisture will be in place across the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley, with moderate to strong destabilization likely to the south of a surface boundary oriented northwest to southeast across portions of the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys. Some where risk appears likely, either from reinvigorated morning convection, or from new storm development along outflow. Given uncertainty into placement of key features, will hold off on introducing 15 percent probabilities at this time, but areas will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks.

Days 5-8/Monday-Thursday - Plains to the Midwest and Southeast

Modest west to northwesterly flow aloft will persist east of the Rockies through much of the forecast period. Organized severe potential is uncertain due to a lack of notable large scale forcing. While some severe risk is likely each day, this risk will be driven by mesoscale processes and convective evolution each day. Overall predictability is low through most of next week.

..Leitman.. 06/18/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

National Risk Overview

Thursday, June 18: TORNADO: 10%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Friday, June 19: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Saturday, June 20: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Sunday, June 21: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, June 22: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, June 23: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, June 24: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, June 25: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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