Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, March 22
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe thunderstorms appear likely this afternoon and evening across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic, particularly from far eastern Ohio into central Pennsylvania. Large to very large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats, but a tornado or two may also occur.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 30%
hail 30%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 221944
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026
Valid 222000Z - 231200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR EASTERN OHIO…THE WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE…AND PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe thunderstorms appear likely this afternoon and evening across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic, particularly from far eastern Ohio into central Pennsylvania. Large to very large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats, but a tornado or two may also occur.
20z Update - Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic
Overall the previous forecast remains on track. Only minor adjustments were made to the southern extent of the level 2 of 5 (Slight) risk area in KY. This adjustment was made based on latest trends in timing/intensity derived from CAMs and RAP forecast soundings across the southwest extent of the severe risk area.
While limited low-level moisture is expected to temper instability across the region, the 18z RAOB from PIT showed the presence of very steep mid and low-level lapse rates amid strong unidirectional vertical wind profiles. This environment should support scattered damaging gusts, and large to very large hail from any initially discrete supercell structures. For more details regarding short term severe potential, reference MCD 284 and Severe Thunderstorm Watch 72.
..Leitman.. 03/22/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026/
Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic
Early-morning soundings reveal a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates (i.e. greater than 8 deg C per km from 700 to 500 mb) extending from the southern Plains northeastward into the Upper OH Valley. This plume of steeper lapse rates is largely oriented along and west of a cold front that extends from a low in south-central KS to another low in western NY. The airmass preceding this front is seasonally warm and moist, with temperatures in the 70s and dewpoints in the 50s across much of the OH Valley. The expectation is for continued airmass modification today as moisture advects northeastward. However, this moistening will be offset by strong mixing, with dewpoints likely ranging from the upper 50s across the Lower OH Valley into the low 50s across western/central PA. This low-level moisture, combined with temperatures in the upper 70s/low 80s, should result in an erosion of surface-based convective inhibition ahead of the front from eastern OH through central PA. Additionally, given the steep mid-level lapse rates in place, weak instability (MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg) is expected to develop ahead of the front.
Current expectations are for robust thunderstorms to develop by 19-21Z from eastern OH into western/central PA along and just ahead the front, forced by low-level convergence along the front and in the vicinity of a weak surface low moving across the region. An initially discrete mode is anticipated, with strong deep-layer shear favoring the development of supercells. Long/straight hodographs and steep mid-level lapse rates suggest that large to very large hail (up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter) is the main threat with these supercells. High LCLs and steep low-level lapse rates also support the potential for strong downbursts as well as trend towards upscale growth and a more linear mode as it moves east-southeastward across PA through the evening. Primary severe threat should transition from hail to damaging gusts throughout the evening. Given the high LCLs and limited low-level moisture, the tornado risk appears low, although not zero given the supercell mode anticipated.
Farther west across the low to mid OH Valley, thunderstorm initiation should occur a bit later (i.e. closer to 00Z) as modest ascent attendant to a low-amplitude shortwave trough augments low-level convergence along the front. Much of this convection may tend to become elevated along/north of the undercutting cold front. Even so, steep mid-level lapse rates and strong shear will support a continued risk for large hail. Some isolated very large hail is possible with the initially more cellular development across southern IL, central IN, and west-central OH. A trend towards more linear structures is expected with time, and warm/dry low to mid-levels could still support some strong gusts despite the elevated storm structures.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Monday, March 23
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Monday from eastern Georgia and South Carolina into southern North Carolina.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 221729
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF EASTERN GA/SC INTO SOUTHERN NC
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Monday from eastern Georgia and South Carolina into southern North Carolina.
Parts of the Carolinas/Georgia
A cold front will move southward across parts of the Carolinas and Southeast on Monday, as a mid/upper-level shortwave trough moves across New England. Weak to locally moderate buoyancy along/ahead of the front will support isolated diurnal thunderstorm potential, though weak midlevel lapse rates will tend to limit storm intensity. Seasonably strong prefrontal heating and steepening of low-level lapse rates could support localized strong/damaging gusts during the afternoon and early evening, if deep convection can be sustained within the weakly forced environment.
..Dean.. 03/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Tuesday, March 24
Outlook Summary
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday from far southeast Georgia to the Florida Peninsula. No severe threat is forecast.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 221920
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday from far southeast Georgia to the Florida Peninsula. No severe threat is forecast.
Synopsis
A mid/upper shortwave trough and strong surface low are forecast to move across parts of British Columbia on Tuesday, as a trailing cold front moves across the Pacific Northwest. Weak convection may develop along and in the wake of this cold front, but inland buoyancy appears too meager for more than very isolated thunderstorm potential.
Farther south and east, an upper ridge is forecast to amplify somewhat over the Southwest on Tuesday, with a west-northwesterly flow regime expected to persist downstream across much of the central/eastern CONUS. An embedded mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across the lower MS Valley and Southeast. A cold front that moves into north FL late D2/Monday is forecast to slow down and weaken on Tuesday.
Modest buoyancy may develop near the remnant front, and isolated storm development will be possible across the FL Peninsula and adjacent southeast GA, both diurnally, and potentially in response to the approaching shortwave trough late in the period. Weak deep-layer shear is expected to limit storm organization. Some weak destabilization will also be possible near the remnant front across the central Gulf Coast and lower MS Valley. It appears the shortwave trough will be displaced north of any appreciable destabilization along the western portion of the remnant front, but weak convection cannot be ruled out from LA/MS to the FL Panhandle.
..Dean.. 03/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Wednesday, March 25
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, March 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, March 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, March 27 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, March 28 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, March 29 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220840 SPC AC 220840
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
Wednesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 5
An upper-level ridge will move into the Rockies on Wednesday, as northwesterly mid-level flow remains from the Great Plains to the eastern U.S. On Thursday, the ridge will become less amplified as it moves into the Great Plains. At the surface, low-level moisture is forecast to return northward into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Within this moist airmass, a pocket of moderate instability is expected by late Thursday afternoon. Thunderstorm development will be possible near a front along the northern edge of the stronger instability from northeast Missouri east-northeastward into north-central Ohio. Storms are expected to move east-southeastward across the Ohio Valley on Thursday afternoon and evening. A severe threat will be possible, but the magnitude of any potential threat is still uncertain.
Friday/Day 6 and Sunday/Day 8
From Friday into Saturday, a cold front is forecast to move southward from the mid Mississippi Valley to the central Gulf Coast. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along parts of the front both Friday and Saturday afternoon. Weak instability should keep any severe threat marginal.
On Sunday, the models are forecasting a dry airmass over most of the continental U.S., suggesting the potential for storms is low.
..Broyles.. 03/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, March 26
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, March 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, March 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, March 27 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, March 28 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, March 29 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220840 SPC AC 220840
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
Wednesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 5
An upper-level ridge will move into the Rockies on Wednesday, as northwesterly mid-level flow remains from the Great Plains to the eastern U.S. On Thursday, the ridge will become less amplified as it moves into the Great Plains. At the surface, low-level moisture is forecast to return northward into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Within this moist airmass, a pocket of moderate instability is expected by late Thursday afternoon. Thunderstorm development will be possible near a front along the northern edge of the stronger instability from northeast Missouri east-northeastward into north-central Ohio. Storms are expected to move east-southeastward across the Ohio Valley on Thursday afternoon and evening. A severe threat will be possible, but the magnitude of any potential threat is still uncertain.
Friday/Day 6 and Sunday/Day 8
From Friday into Saturday, a cold front is forecast to move southward from the mid Mississippi Valley to the central Gulf Coast. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along parts of the front both Friday and Saturday afternoon. Weak instability should keep any severe threat marginal.
On Sunday, the models are forecasting a dry airmass over most of the continental U.S., suggesting the potential for storms is low.
..Broyles.. 03/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, March 27
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, March 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, March 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, March 27 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, March 28 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, March 29 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220840 SPC AC 220840
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
Wednesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 5
An upper-level ridge will move into the Rockies on Wednesday, as northwesterly mid-level flow remains from the Great Plains to the eastern U.S. On Thursday, the ridge will become less amplified as it moves into the Great Plains. At the surface, low-level moisture is forecast to return northward into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Within this moist airmass, a pocket of moderate instability is expected by late Thursday afternoon. Thunderstorm development will be possible near a front along the northern edge of the stronger instability from northeast Missouri east-northeastward into north-central Ohio. Storms are expected to move east-southeastward across the Ohio Valley on Thursday afternoon and evening. A severe threat will be possible, but the magnitude of any potential threat is still uncertain.
Friday/Day 6 and Sunday/Day 8
From Friday into Saturday, a cold front is forecast to move southward from the mid Mississippi Valley to the central Gulf Coast. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along parts of the front both Friday and Saturday afternoon. Weak instability should keep any severe threat marginal.
On Sunday, the models are forecasting a dry airmass over most of the continental U.S., suggesting the potential for storms is low.
..Broyles.. 03/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, March 28
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, March 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, March 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, March 27 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, March 28 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, March 29 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220840 SPC AC 220840
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
Wednesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 5
An upper-level ridge will move into the Rockies on Wednesday, as northwesterly mid-level flow remains from the Great Plains to the eastern U.S. On Thursday, the ridge will become less amplified as it moves into the Great Plains. At the surface, low-level moisture is forecast to return northward into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Within this moist airmass, a pocket of moderate instability is expected by late Thursday afternoon. Thunderstorm development will be possible near a front along the northern edge of the stronger instability from northeast Missouri east-northeastward into north-central Ohio. Storms are expected to move east-southeastward across the Ohio Valley on Thursday afternoon and evening. A severe threat will be possible, but the magnitude of any potential threat is still uncertain.
Friday/Day 6 and Sunday/Day 8
From Friday into Saturday, a cold front is forecast to move southward from the mid Mississippi Valley to the central Gulf Coast. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along parts of the front both Friday and Saturday afternoon. Weak instability should keep any severe threat marginal.
On Sunday, the models are forecasting a dry airmass over most of the continental U.S., suggesting the potential for storms is low.
..Broyles.. 03/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, March 29
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, March 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, March 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, March 27 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, March 28 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, March 29 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220840 SPC AC 220840
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
Wednesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 5
An upper-level ridge will move into the Rockies on Wednesday, as northwesterly mid-level flow remains from the Great Plains to the eastern U.S. On Thursday, the ridge will become less amplified as it moves into the Great Plains. At the surface, low-level moisture is forecast to return northward into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Within this moist airmass, a pocket of moderate instability is expected by late Thursday afternoon. Thunderstorm development will be possible near a front along the northern edge of the stronger instability from northeast Missouri east-northeastward into north-central Ohio. Storms are expected to move east-southeastward across the Ohio Valley on Thursday afternoon and evening. A severe threat will be possible, but the magnitude of any potential threat is still uncertain.
Friday/Day 6 and Sunday/Day 8
From Friday into Saturday, a cold front is forecast to move southward from the mid Mississippi Valley to the central Gulf Coast. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along parts of the front both Friday and Saturday afternoon. Weak instability should keep any severe threat marginal.
On Sunday, the models are forecasting a dry airmass over most of the continental U.S., suggesting the potential for storms is low.
..Broyles.. 03/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, March 22
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 30%
- WIND: 30%
- Monday, March 23
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Tuesday, March 24
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Wednesday, March 25
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, March 26
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, March 27
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, March 28
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, March 29
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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