Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, August 17
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and large hail are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern Plains. Damaging gusts will also be possible in parts of the southern Appalachians to the North Carolina Piedmont, and possibly across portions of the Mid-South and southern Plains.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 30%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 172003
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026
Valid 172000Z - 181200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST…AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and large hail are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern Plains. Damaging gusts will also be possible in parts of the southern Appalachians to the North Carolina Piedmont, and possibly across portions of the Mid-South and southern Plains.
20Z Update
Given the earlier than expected development within western South Dakota/eastern Wyoming, the Slight Risk has been expanded northwestward. See MD 2012 for additional information. One or more organized clusters may eventually develop out of this activity as the low-level jet increases into northern Nebraska/southern South Dakota. Confidence on where a greater corridor of wind risk exists is still too low for a categorical upgrade. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track.
..Wendt.. 08/17/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1152 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026/
Northern/Central Plains
Weak height falls are expected regionally with a seasonally prominent strengthening of northwesterly flow aloft. A surface low will shift eastward and an attendant cold front will push southward/southeastward across eastern Montana, North Dakota and toward west/northwest Minnesota. The airmass preceding this front will be moist and strongly unstable, with dewpoints in the upper 60s and MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg. Multiple areas of initial development are expected, including along the front from eastern Dakotas into western Minnesota, and in the vicinity of the pre-frontal trough and/or front over the NE Panhandle vicinity, southern South Dakota, and southeast Montana/far eastern Wyoming.
Mid/Late-afternoon storm development in each of these areas will progress into zones of greater buoyancy by evening. Some initial supercells capable of large hail are expected, especially given the strength of the deep-layer wind profiles, while steep low-level lapse rates and high cloud bases will support strong wind gust potential, especially with the possibility that storms may cluster/organize this evening across Nebraska/southern South Dakota, and possibly across Siouxland and western Minnesota.
Central/Southern Appalachians into the Piedmont
Within a very moist airmass, renewed thunderstorm development is expected along the southern flank of a remnant thunderstorm cluster and in vicinity of the higher terrain/mountains this afternoon. Vertical shear will not be overly strong, but moderate/strong buoyancy and steep low-level lapse rates will still support the potential for damaging wind gusts. These strong outflows could promote the development of several forward-propagating/southeast-moving line segments with a persistent potential for wind damage, at least through early evening.
Oklahoma/Arkansas to Mid-South
Aided by an MCV, a small cluster of storms with a morning history of occasional severe-caliber winds continues at midday across northwest Arkansas. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 2010. While not certain or perhaps likely, a general eastward-persistence of this cluster could occur. Additional isolated storm development may occur regionally later this afternoon along the remnant outflow and/or front, with steep low-level lapse rates and ample buoyancy supportive of damaging downburst potential through around sunset.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Tuesday, August 18
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected Tuesday afternoon/evening across parts of the central Plains and toward the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 171727
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS…CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA…SOUTHWEST IOWA…AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected Tuesday afternoon/evening across parts of the central Plains and toward the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valley.
Central Plains to Mid/Upper MS Valley
The presence, or lack, of morning convection will have a significant impact on the evolution of storms on Tuesday. From the 12Z HREF cycle, a majority of the CAM members have a cluster of storms across eastern Nebraska at 12Z. Given the environment in the region, this cluster would at least have some marginal hail/wind threat. Most guidance has this cluster dissipating as the low-level jet weakens. Given a more stable environment east of this activity this seems like the most likely scenario. If this cluster can persist until late morning when the downstream airmass destabilizes to the south, it could turn right and persist across Missouri, but evidence for this is quite low.
Whatever boundaries any morning storms leave behind will likely be the focus for diurnal storm development. Overall forcing is quite low which may lead to isolated to widely scattered storm development. However, 45 to 55 knots of mid-level flow from the KS/NE border northward will provide ample shear for storm organization, including supercells. In fact, some 2-3 inch hail seems likely with any longer-lived supercells which may develop within this most favorable environment.
Additional thunderstorms are expected during the overnight period from northern Kansas to central Missouri, within a region of isentropic ascent. The location of the 850mb front and the best forcing still has some uncertainty, but thunderstorm activity will be most likely from northeast Kansas to northwest Missouri. As storms congeal and a cold pool forms, a wind-producing MCS may develop out of this cluster. This is most prominently shown by the WRF-NSSL and the WRF-ARW. Therefore, a CIG1 wind intensity has been added across this region for this conditional 75+ mph wind threat associated with a MCS in the forecast environment.
..Bentley.. 08/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Wednesday, August 19
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce large hail, and strong wind gusts from the central/northern Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley. A tornado threat may also exist across the Ozarks to Mid-Mississippi Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 171931
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce large hail, and strong wind gusts from the central/northern Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley. A tornado threat may also exist across the Ozarks to Mid-Mississippi Valley.
Central High Plains to the northern Plains
Moderate instability with moderate to effective shear will be present across a large portion of the central High Plains into the northern Plains on Wednesday. As a weak mid-level shortwave trough crosses the region, storms are expected to develop across the Colorado Rockies and move into the adjacent Plains Wednesday afternoon. A hot, well-mixed environment will support severe wind gusts, but given the moderate to strong mid-upper level flow, a supercell could develop which would have a greater hail threat.
Farther north, storm coverage is less certain as heights are forecast to rise slightly through the afternoon. However, a front will exist across the region which may be a focus for isolated storms. The wind profile should support supercells with any activity that develops. The primary threats with this activity would be large hail and severe wind gusts.
Central Plains
Convective coverage is less certain across the central Plains as it is removed from the primary surface features. However, a supercell environment will be in place and some guidance (such as the RRFS, ECMWF, and FV3) have storms in this vicinity, likely related to outflow from morning convection across Nebraska. If these storms form any supercells would be capable of large hail and severe wind gusts.
Ozarks to the Mid-Mississippi Valley
A more focused corridor of storms may develop along a frontal zone across southern Missouri and northern Arkansas. Moderate to strong instability is forecast with a 50 to 55 knot mid-level jet streak across the region. Supercell should be the primary storm mode with any activity within this zone. In addition, this activity could pose some tornado threat as hodographs show moderate low-level directional shear and a warm front in the region.
..Bentley.. 08/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Thursday, August 20
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, August 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, August 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, August 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, August 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, August 24 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170748 SPC AC 170748
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
An amplified upper pattern will persist during the Day 4-8/Thu-Mon period. An upper trough will remain over the eastern U.S. while strong upper ridging spreads from the western U.S. toward the Plains late in the period. This pattern will result in moderate northwestern flow aloft across portions of the Plains into the Midwest. Beneath northwesterly flow aloft and on the eastern periphery of upper ridging, a seasonally moist airmass will be in place from the Mid/Lower MO Valley into the Upper/Middle MS Valley. Some severe potential could develop over these areas through the period. However, capping may limit this potential, and with no notable features fostering focused large-scale ascent, uncertainty is too high to include 15 percent severe probabilities at this time.
..Leitman.. 08/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, August 21
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, August 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, August 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, August 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, August 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, August 24 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170748 SPC AC 170748
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
An amplified upper pattern will persist during the Day 4-8/Thu-Mon period. An upper trough will remain over the eastern U.S. while strong upper ridging spreads from the western U.S. toward the Plains late in the period. This pattern will result in moderate northwestern flow aloft across portions of the Plains into the Midwest. Beneath northwesterly flow aloft and on the eastern periphery of upper ridging, a seasonally moist airmass will be in place from the Mid/Lower MO Valley into the Upper/Middle MS Valley. Some severe potential could develop over these areas through the period. However, capping may limit this potential, and with no notable features fostering focused large-scale ascent, uncertainty is too high to include 15 percent severe probabilities at this time.
..Leitman.. 08/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, August 22
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, August 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, August 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, August 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, August 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, August 24 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170748 SPC AC 170748
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
An amplified upper pattern will persist during the Day 4-8/Thu-Mon period. An upper trough will remain over the eastern U.S. while strong upper ridging spreads from the western U.S. toward the Plains late in the period. This pattern will result in moderate northwestern flow aloft across portions of the Plains into the Midwest. Beneath northwesterly flow aloft and on the eastern periphery of upper ridging, a seasonally moist airmass will be in place from the Mid/Lower MO Valley into the Upper/Middle MS Valley. Some severe potential could develop over these areas through the period. However, capping may limit this potential, and with no notable features fostering focused large-scale ascent, uncertainty is too high to include 15 percent severe probabilities at this time.
..Leitman.. 08/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, August 23
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, August 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, August 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, August 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, August 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, August 24 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170748 SPC AC 170748
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
An amplified upper pattern will persist during the Day 4-8/Thu-Mon period. An upper trough will remain over the eastern U.S. while strong upper ridging spreads from the western U.S. toward the Plains late in the period. This pattern will result in moderate northwestern flow aloft across portions of the Plains into the Midwest. Beneath northwesterly flow aloft and on the eastern periphery of upper ridging, a seasonally moist airmass will be in place from the Mid/Lower MO Valley into the Upper/Middle MS Valley. Some severe potential could develop over these areas through the period. However, capping may limit this potential, and with no notable features fostering focused large-scale ascent, uncertainty is too high to include 15 percent severe probabilities at this time.
..Leitman.. 08/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, August 24
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, August 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, August 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, August 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, August 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, August 24 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170748 SPC AC 170748
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
An amplified upper pattern will persist during the Day 4-8/Thu-Mon period. An upper trough will remain over the eastern U.S. while strong upper ridging spreads from the western U.S. toward the Plains late in the period. This pattern will result in moderate northwestern flow aloft across portions of the Plains into the Midwest. Beneath northwesterly flow aloft and on the eastern periphery of upper ridging, a seasonally moist airmass will be in place from the Mid/Lower MO Valley into the Upper/Middle MS Valley. Some severe potential could develop over these areas through the period. However, capping may limit this potential, and with no notable features fostering focused large-scale ascent, uncertainty is too high to include 15 percent severe probabilities at this time.
..Leitman.. 08/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, August 17
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 30%
- Tuesday, August 18
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Wednesday, August 19
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Thursday, August 20
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, August 21
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, August 22
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, August 23
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, August 24
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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