Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Wednesday, June 10

Outlook Summary

Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms with potential for large hail in excess of two inches in diameter, a few strong tornadoes and damaging winds with gusts over 75 mph are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and Midwest.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 101254

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST

### SUMMARY

Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms with potential for large hail in excess of two inches in diameter, a few strong tornadoes and damaging winds with gusts over 75 mph are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and Midwest.

Midwest/Missouri Valley and Upper Mississippi Valley

With a broad upper trough centered near/east of the northern CONUS and Canadian Rockies, its lead portion will shift northeastward over the Upper Midwest/Lake Superior vicinity today, with more limited forcing for ascent and height falls farther south, until the late-night arrival of a secondary portion of this trough out of the northern Rockies and north-central High Plains. The primary synoptic low/surface triple point will shift from northern Minnesota north-northeastward into Canada. A moist environment will be in place to the east of an eastward-advancing cold front, with north-northeastward air mass recovery in the wake of overnight/early morning storms (MCS) across the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota/Wisconsin.

Showers and thunderstorms have increased in the predawn hours across eastern portions of Nebraska/Kansas into northwest Missouri and western Iowa. This development is driven by a strong southwesterly low-level jet and ample elevated moisture transport. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1063. This development could further increase today and shift east-northeastward across Iowa/northern Missouri and eventually northwest Illinois today, complexifying the forecast scenario. These storms could pose a severe-storm risk within this corridor relatively early today, with subsequent development expected by late afternoon near the cold front spanning Minnesota into east-central Iowa, northern Missouri and eastern Kansas. The early day storms, pending how extensive they are, could spatially influence via outflow/cloud debris a preferred zone for redevelopment near the Iowa/Missouri border vicinity toward west-central/northwest Illinois. Meanwhile, farther north, in closer proximity to the large-scale height falls, another preferred zone of severe-storm development could focus across northern/eastern Minnesota into western Wisconsin.

Deep-layer shear will be strengthening across these regions and will broadly support initial supercells capable of large hail, with very large hailstones possible with initial development near the cold front late this afternoon and early evening. A predominant large hail risk is also expected late tonight with anticipated mostly elevated development across central/eastern Nebraska and northeast Kansas, attributable to the approaching upstream system and an re-intensifying low-level jet and warm/moist advection. Large hail aside, tornadoes will be possible regionally late this afternoon and evening, a few of which could be strong (EF2+). The early day storms could ultimately organize and pose a damaging wind threat, and more broadly so this evening as storms trend upscale near/east of the cold front, potentially leading to a multi-round severe potential in some areas today and tonight.

Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic States

A moist and unstable airmass will be in place today across much of the region, with surface dewpoints generally in the lower 70s F. While some thunderstorms are ongoing early today, additional and more potent thunderstorm development is expected into the afternoon as the boundary layer destabilizes. This development will be further influenced by one or more weak eastward-moving MCVs over the upper Ohio River Valley this morning. Damaging winds will be the primary hazard regionally.

..Guyer/Wendt.. 06/10/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

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Outlook for Thursday, June 11

Outlook Summary

Scattered to numerous severe storms capable of potentially strong tornadoes, large hail greater than two inches in diameter, and destructive winds with gusts in excess of 75 mph appear likely from portions of the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys into the upper Great Lakes. Widely scattered severe storms capable of damaging winds and large hail are possible across the Southern Plains, as well as the Mid-Atlantic into central Appalachians.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 100545

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI…PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN IOWA…SOUTHERN WISCONSIN…NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS…NORTHERN INDIANA…PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN…AND FAR NORTHWEST OHIO

### THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE ENHANCED RISK FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES…AND ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS

### SUMMARY

Scattered to numerous severe storms capable of potentially strong tornadoes, large hail greater than two inches in diameter, and destructive winds with gusts in excess of 75 mph appear likely from portions of the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys into the upper Great Lakes. Widely scattered severe storms capable of damaging winds and large hail are possible across the Southern Plains, as well as the Mid-Atlantic into central Appalachians.

Synopsis

A potent short-wave trough initially over the central High Plains Thursday morning is forecast to accelerate through the upper Great Lakes with a trailing perturbation moving through the central Plains into mid MS Valley Thursday night. Both disturbances will be located on the cyclonic aside of an unseasonably strong mid-level jet with 500-mb wind speeds of 60-80+ kt. Elsewhere, northwest flow pattern will prevail in the mid levels across the Mid-Atlantic, with a series of weaker disturbances moving through that region.

At the surface, low pressure initially over north-central KS Thursday morning will develop into central lower MI by Thursday night. The surface low will be developing along a composite outflow-warm front that will be rapidly lifting north through the Midwest into the upper Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will advance southeast through the lower MO and mid MS Valleys, with the southwestward extension of the boundary settling south into the southern Plains.

### Mid/lower Missouri Valley into the Mid Mississippi Valley and upper Great Lakes

There is good model agreement that a cluster of severe storms, including supercells, will be ongoing at 12z Thursday across the mid MO Valley, immediately northeast of the surface low and within a zone of strong, low-level warm advection. The early-day storms are expected to grow upscale into an organized MCS with embedded supercell and bowing structures across IA by mid to late morning amidst a rapidly destabilizing air mass, which will be coincident with strong low-level and deep-layer shear. As such, the potential for tornadoes (some strong) and corridors of destructive winds in excess of 75 mph is expected to increase significantly during the morning. The intensifying MCS and its related destructive wind and tornado threat is expected to move into southern WI and northern IL by early to mid afternoon, and eventually into lower MI by late afternoon into evening.

An additional wave of supercells and/or bowing structures is expected to develop along the trailing outflow from the lead MCS, as well as along the cold front from eastern IA and northern IL into the mid MS Valley during the afternoon into evening. Those storms will be capable of tornadoes, large to very large hail, and damaging winds with significant gusts, which could become widespread should storm mode transition to a bowing line.

### Eastern Kansas into the Southern Plains

Thunderstorm development is anticipated by mid to late afternoon along the cold front amidst a moderate to strongly unstable air mass. The models indicate the strongest deep-layer shear remaining within the post-frontal environment. Nonetheless, there is some signal for 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear to cross the eastern KS and western MO segment of the front at an oblique angle, which will be supportive of supercell storm modes with a risk for large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. Deep-layer shear vectors are forecast to align largely parallel with the front across the southern Plains, which may contribute to downshear storm seeding, leading to more messy modes. Nonetheless, the degree of instability will favor vigorous up/downdrafts capable of large hail and damaging winds.

Mid-Atlantic into central Appalachians

Daytime heating coupled with dewpoints in the 60s to low 70s are expected to yield a weakly capped and moderate to strongly unstable afternoon air mass. Forcing for ascent associated with the disturbances mentioned in the synopsis are expected to foster multiple clusters of thunderstorms capable of damaging winds, especially if organized cold pools can develop. There is some model signal that a corridor of slightly stronger low-level and deep-layer shear will materialize across the lower Hudson Valley Thursday afternoon, which would support some potential for supercells capable of large hail and perhaps a brief tornado.

..Mead.. 06/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Friday, June 12

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe storms capable of damaging winds and some large hail are possible across the Mid-Atlantic into Central Appalachians Friday afternoon and evening.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 100725

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe storms capable of damaging winds and some large hail are possible across the Mid-Atlantic into Central Appalachians Friday afternoon and evening.

Synopsis

A short-wave trough over the upper Great Lakes and OH Valley Friday morning will progress through southwest Ontario to along the St. Lawrence Valley, with a corridor of height falls and stronger mid-level winds overspreading the lower Great Lakes into Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front will move through the lower Great Lakes and central Appalachians before merging with lee troughing east of the northern and central Appalachians.

### Mid-Atlantic into Central Appalachians

A hot and moist air mass is expected to exist across the pre-frontal warm sector Friday afternoon with temperatures in the upper 80s to upper 90s and dewpoints in the 60s to low/mid 70s. While mid-level lapse rates are expected to remain modest, the high theta-e boundary layer will largely contribute to moderate instability. The glancing influence of the short-wave trough coupled with convergence along the cold front and lee trough, in addition to terrain influences are expected to foster scattered to numerous thunderstorms through the peak of the diurnal heating cycle.

The strongest vertical shear of 30-40 kt is forecast from the lower OH Valley into the lower Great Lakes, where the potential will exist for some transient supercell and bowing structures capable of large hail and damaging winds. Vertical shear will be comparatively weaker along the lee trough; however, both low-level lapse rates and instability will be greater, supporting potential for damaging downburst winds and marginally severe hail. There is some model signal that storms will coalesce into multiple clusters by late afternoon into early evening with a potentially more concentrated area of damaging winds reaching the Mid-Atlantic Coast.

Mid-South into the Central and South High Plains

Moderate to strong instability is forecast south of the surface front, which is expected to stall across the discussion area. In the absence of appreciable forcing for ascent, the models vary on the location and coverage of diurnally enhanced storms, which could pose some severe-weather threat. Severe-weather probabilities may eventually be added to some of the area once confidence in storm evolution becomes more clear.

..Mead.. 06/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Saturday, June 13

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100826 SPC AC 100826

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Saturday

The models are in generally good agreement in depicting a prominent, mid/upper-level low over Ontario with a secondary, weaker low or short-wave trough across the northern Rockies. A belt of enhanced, westerly winds in the mid levels will reside to the south of those features from the northern Plains through the Great Lakes. At the surface, an area of low pressure is forecast across the central Plains with an associated front extending northeast into the upper Great Lakes.

A strongly unstable air mass is forecast ahead of the front across portions of the mid/lower MO Valley into Ozark Plateau with instability decreasing with northeastward extent into the upper Great Lakes. The models indicate sufficiently strong deep-layer shear across the frontal zone to support organized storm modes, including supercells. Highest confidence in greater storm coverage and an associated severe-weather threat remains centered on the mid/lower MO Valleys. Severe-weather probabilities may need to be extended into the upper Great Lakes in subsequent outlooks.

### Day 5/Sunday

A number of the deterministic models indicate a short-wave trough and associated jet streak moving through the Great Lakes into Northeast, within the base of the Ontario upper low. Farther west, the northern Rockies short-wave trough will advance toward the central Rockies. At the surface, a cold front associated with the former disturbance mentioned above will progress through the Northeast and OH Valley, with the western extension of the boundary stalling across the southern Plains.

The models indicate a narrow axis of modest instability developing by afternoon ahead of the front from the northern New England to the upper OH Valley, where the strongest vertical shear is forecast. Some severe weather appears possible in those areas; however, the limited extent of the warm sector leads to uncertainty in the coverage and duration of any threat.

Greater instability and a wider warm sector are forecast with southwestward extent from the OH River and TN Valley into southern Plains. Generally weak vertical shear is forecast across the frontal zone, which should limit the degree of storm organization. A possible exception is across the southern and central High Plains, where an easterly low-level wind component will boost deep-layer shear to some extent. Model trends will be monitored for the possible inclusion of severe-weather probabilities in that area.

### Day 6/Monday

The deterministic models are in reasonably good agreement in amplifying the aforementioned short-wave trough over the central Plains with an associated belt of enhanced mid-level flow extending through the OH Valley into Northeast. At the surface, there is some signal that an area of low pressure could develop along a front across the southern Plains into Ozark Plateau. Some severe-weather threat appears possible in that area, as well as along the front that is expected to stretch east through the TN Valley into the Carolinas. Predictability in the specific details are too low to include an area.

### Days 7-8/Tuesday and Wednesday

The ensemble mean solutions are in relatively good agreement in suggesting the central Plains short-wave trough will become absorbed into broader-scale trough amplification east of the MS Valley. At the surface, it appears that a frontal wave will move from the TN Valley toward the Mid-Atlantic coast, while a trailing cold front advances into the Gulf Coast states. While areas of severe weather are possible during this time frame, predictability in their location is low.

..Mead.. 06/10/2026

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Outlook for Sunday, June 14

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100826 SPC AC 100826

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Saturday

The models are in generally good agreement in depicting a prominent, mid/upper-level low over Ontario with a secondary, weaker low or short-wave trough across the northern Rockies. A belt of enhanced, westerly winds in the mid levels will reside to the south of those features from the northern Plains through the Great Lakes. At the surface, an area of low pressure is forecast across the central Plains with an associated front extending northeast into the upper Great Lakes.

A strongly unstable air mass is forecast ahead of the front across portions of the mid/lower MO Valley into Ozark Plateau with instability decreasing with northeastward extent into the upper Great Lakes. The models indicate sufficiently strong deep-layer shear across the frontal zone to support organized storm modes, including supercells. Highest confidence in greater storm coverage and an associated severe-weather threat remains centered on the mid/lower MO Valleys. Severe-weather probabilities may need to be extended into the upper Great Lakes in subsequent outlooks.

### Day 5/Sunday

A number of the deterministic models indicate a short-wave trough and associated jet streak moving through the Great Lakes into Northeast, within the base of the Ontario upper low. Farther west, the northern Rockies short-wave trough will advance toward the central Rockies. At the surface, a cold front associated with the former disturbance mentioned above will progress through the Northeast and OH Valley, with the western extension of the boundary stalling across the southern Plains.

The models indicate a narrow axis of modest instability developing by afternoon ahead of the front from the northern New England to the upper OH Valley, where the strongest vertical shear is forecast. Some severe weather appears possible in those areas; however, the limited extent of the warm sector leads to uncertainty in the coverage and duration of any threat.

Greater instability and a wider warm sector are forecast with southwestward extent from the OH River and TN Valley into southern Plains. Generally weak vertical shear is forecast across the frontal zone, which should limit the degree of storm organization. A possible exception is across the southern and central High Plains, where an easterly low-level wind component will boost deep-layer shear to some extent. Model trends will be monitored for the possible inclusion of severe-weather probabilities in that area.

### Day 6/Monday

The deterministic models are in reasonably good agreement in amplifying the aforementioned short-wave trough over the central Plains with an associated belt of enhanced mid-level flow extending through the OH Valley into Northeast. At the surface, there is some signal that an area of low pressure could develop along a front across the southern Plains into Ozark Plateau. Some severe-weather threat appears possible in that area, as well as along the front that is expected to stretch east through the TN Valley into the Carolinas. Predictability in the specific details are too low to include an area.

### Days 7-8/Tuesday and Wednesday

The ensemble mean solutions are in relatively good agreement in suggesting the central Plains short-wave trough will become absorbed into broader-scale trough amplification east of the MS Valley. At the surface, it appears that a frontal wave will move from the TN Valley toward the Mid-Atlantic coast, while a trailing cold front advances into the Gulf Coast states. While areas of severe weather are possible during this time frame, predictability in their location is low.

..Mead.. 06/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, June 15

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100826 SPC AC 100826

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Saturday

The models are in generally good agreement in depicting a prominent, mid/upper-level low over Ontario with a secondary, weaker low or short-wave trough across the northern Rockies. A belt of enhanced, westerly winds in the mid levels will reside to the south of those features from the northern Plains through the Great Lakes. At the surface, an area of low pressure is forecast across the central Plains with an associated front extending northeast into the upper Great Lakes.

A strongly unstable air mass is forecast ahead of the front across portions of the mid/lower MO Valley into Ozark Plateau with instability decreasing with northeastward extent into the upper Great Lakes. The models indicate sufficiently strong deep-layer shear across the frontal zone to support organized storm modes, including supercells. Highest confidence in greater storm coverage and an associated severe-weather threat remains centered on the mid/lower MO Valleys. Severe-weather probabilities may need to be extended into the upper Great Lakes in subsequent outlooks.

### Day 5/Sunday

A number of the deterministic models indicate a short-wave trough and associated jet streak moving through the Great Lakes into Northeast, within the base of the Ontario upper low. Farther west, the northern Rockies short-wave trough will advance toward the central Rockies. At the surface, a cold front associated with the former disturbance mentioned above will progress through the Northeast and OH Valley, with the western extension of the boundary stalling across the southern Plains.

The models indicate a narrow axis of modest instability developing by afternoon ahead of the front from the northern New England to the upper OH Valley, where the strongest vertical shear is forecast. Some severe weather appears possible in those areas; however, the limited extent of the warm sector leads to uncertainty in the coverage and duration of any threat.

Greater instability and a wider warm sector are forecast with southwestward extent from the OH River and TN Valley into southern Plains. Generally weak vertical shear is forecast across the frontal zone, which should limit the degree of storm organization. A possible exception is across the southern and central High Plains, where an easterly low-level wind component will boost deep-layer shear to some extent. Model trends will be monitored for the possible inclusion of severe-weather probabilities in that area.

### Day 6/Monday

The deterministic models are in reasonably good agreement in amplifying the aforementioned short-wave trough over the central Plains with an associated belt of enhanced mid-level flow extending through the OH Valley into Northeast. At the surface, there is some signal that an area of low pressure could develop along a front across the southern Plains into Ozark Plateau. Some severe-weather threat appears possible in that area, as well as along the front that is expected to stretch east through the TN Valley into the Carolinas. Predictability in the specific details are too low to include an area.

### Days 7-8/Tuesday and Wednesday

The ensemble mean solutions are in relatively good agreement in suggesting the central Plains short-wave trough will become absorbed into broader-scale trough amplification east of the MS Valley. At the surface, it appears that a frontal wave will move from the TN Valley toward the Mid-Atlantic coast, while a trailing cold front advances into the Gulf Coast states. While areas of severe weather are possible during this time frame, predictability in their location is low.

..Mead.. 06/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, June 16

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100826 SPC AC 100826

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Saturday

The models are in generally good agreement in depicting a prominent, mid/upper-level low over Ontario with a secondary, weaker low or short-wave trough across the northern Rockies. A belt of enhanced, westerly winds in the mid levels will reside to the south of those features from the northern Plains through the Great Lakes. At the surface, an area of low pressure is forecast across the central Plains with an associated front extending northeast into the upper Great Lakes.

A strongly unstable air mass is forecast ahead of the front across portions of the mid/lower MO Valley into Ozark Plateau with instability decreasing with northeastward extent into the upper Great Lakes. The models indicate sufficiently strong deep-layer shear across the frontal zone to support organized storm modes, including supercells. Highest confidence in greater storm coverage and an associated severe-weather threat remains centered on the mid/lower MO Valleys. Severe-weather probabilities may need to be extended into the upper Great Lakes in subsequent outlooks.

### Day 5/Sunday

A number of the deterministic models indicate a short-wave trough and associated jet streak moving through the Great Lakes into Northeast, within the base of the Ontario upper low. Farther west, the northern Rockies short-wave trough will advance toward the central Rockies. At the surface, a cold front associated with the former disturbance mentioned above will progress through the Northeast and OH Valley, with the western extension of the boundary stalling across the southern Plains.

The models indicate a narrow axis of modest instability developing by afternoon ahead of the front from the northern New England to the upper OH Valley, where the strongest vertical shear is forecast. Some severe weather appears possible in those areas; however, the limited extent of the warm sector leads to uncertainty in the coverage and duration of any threat.

Greater instability and a wider warm sector are forecast with southwestward extent from the OH River and TN Valley into southern Plains. Generally weak vertical shear is forecast across the frontal zone, which should limit the degree of storm organization. A possible exception is across the southern and central High Plains, where an easterly low-level wind component will boost deep-layer shear to some extent. Model trends will be monitored for the possible inclusion of severe-weather probabilities in that area.

### Day 6/Monday

The deterministic models are in reasonably good agreement in amplifying the aforementioned short-wave trough over the central Plains with an associated belt of enhanced mid-level flow extending through the OH Valley into Northeast. At the surface, there is some signal that an area of low pressure could develop along a front across the southern Plains into Ozark Plateau. Some severe-weather threat appears possible in that area, as well as along the front that is expected to stretch east through the TN Valley into the Carolinas. Predictability in the specific details are too low to include an area.

### Days 7-8/Tuesday and Wednesday

The ensemble mean solutions are in relatively good agreement in suggesting the central Plains short-wave trough will become absorbed into broader-scale trough amplification east of the MS Valley. At the surface, it appears that a frontal wave will move from the TN Valley toward the Mid-Atlantic coast, while a trailing cold front advances into the Gulf Coast states. While areas of severe weather are possible during this time frame, predictability in their location is low.

..Mead.. 06/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, June 17

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100826 SPC AC 100826

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Saturday

The models are in generally good agreement in depicting a prominent, mid/upper-level low over Ontario with a secondary, weaker low or short-wave trough across the northern Rockies. A belt of enhanced, westerly winds in the mid levels will reside to the south of those features from the northern Plains through the Great Lakes. At the surface, an area of low pressure is forecast across the central Plains with an associated front extending northeast into the upper Great Lakes.

A strongly unstable air mass is forecast ahead of the front across portions of the mid/lower MO Valley into Ozark Plateau with instability decreasing with northeastward extent into the upper Great Lakes. The models indicate sufficiently strong deep-layer shear across the frontal zone to support organized storm modes, including supercells. Highest confidence in greater storm coverage and an associated severe-weather threat remains centered on the mid/lower MO Valleys. Severe-weather probabilities may need to be extended into the upper Great Lakes in subsequent outlooks.

### Day 5/Sunday

A number of the deterministic models indicate a short-wave trough and associated jet streak moving through the Great Lakes into Northeast, within the base of the Ontario upper low. Farther west, the northern Rockies short-wave trough will advance toward the central Rockies. At the surface, a cold front associated with the former disturbance mentioned above will progress through the Northeast and OH Valley, with the western extension of the boundary stalling across the southern Plains.

The models indicate a narrow axis of modest instability developing by afternoon ahead of the front from the northern New England to the upper OH Valley, where the strongest vertical shear is forecast. Some severe weather appears possible in those areas; however, the limited extent of the warm sector leads to uncertainty in the coverage and duration of any threat.

Greater instability and a wider warm sector are forecast with southwestward extent from the OH River and TN Valley into southern Plains. Generally weak vertical shear is forecast across the frontal zone, which should limit the degree of storm organization. A possible exception is across the southern and central High Plains, where an easterly low-level wind component will boost deep-layer shear to some extent. Model trends will be monitored for the possible inclusion of severe-weather probabilities in that area.

### Day 6/Monday

The deterministic models are in reasonably good agreement in amplifying the aforementioned short-wave trough over the central Plains with an associated belt of enhanced mid-level flow extending through the OH Valley into Northeast. At the surface, there is some signal that an area of low pressure could develop along a front across the southern Plains into Ozark Plateau. Some severe-weather threat appears possible in that area, as well as along the front that is expected to stretch east through the TN Valley into the Carolinas. Predictability in the specific details are too low to include an area.

### Days 7-8/Tuesday and Wednesday

The ensemble mean solutions are in relatively good agreement in suggesting the central Plains short-wave trough will become absorbed into broader-scale trough amplification east of the MS Valley. At the surface, it appears that a frontal wave will move from the TN Valley toward the Mid-Atlantic coast, while a trailing cold front advances into the Gulf Coast states. While areas of severe weather are possible during this time frame, predictability in their location is low.

..Mead.. 06/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Wednesday, June 10

TORNADO: 10%

HAIL: 30%

WIND: 30%

Thursday, June 11

TORNADO: 10%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 45%

Friday, June 12

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Saturday, June 13

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Sunday, June 14

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Monday, June 15

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Tuesday, June 16

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Wednesday, June 17

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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