Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, March 25
Outlook Summary
Severe storms are not expected through tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 250505
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe storms are not expected through tonight.
Synopsis
A mid-level ridge centered across the Rockies will become less amplified through the period as a strong mid-level jet moves from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains. A surface low will emerge across the northern Plains by this evening. Strengthening southerly flow ahead of this surface low will moisten regions from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley.
Ohio Valley
A weak mid-level shortwave trough (evident at both 850mb and 500mb) will move through the Ohio Valley tonight. As isentropic ascent strengthens ahead of this trough, thunderstorms are expected. Instability will remain quite weak (<500 J/kg) and therefore, no severe weather threat is anticipated, despite strong deep-layer shear.
Florida.
Thunderstorms are expected across the central Florida peninsula today, particularly along the sea breeze on the west side of the peninsula. Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and cool temps could support some stronger storms, especially given the well-mixed boundary layer across the region. However, weak effective shear (mostly 20 knots or less) should limit the overall severe weather threat.
Elsewhere, thunderstorms are possible across northeast Colorado, southeast Wyoming, and western Nebraska, parts of the northern Plains, and western Washington. However, these storms should remain isolated and pose minimal severe weather threat.
..Bentley/Wendt.. 03/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Thursday, March 26
Outlook Summary
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected late Thursday afternoon and evening across parts of the Midwest and Ohio River Valley. Very large hail, a few tornadoes, and severe winds will be possible.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 250556
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
### SUMMARY
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected late Thursday afternoon and evening across parts of the Midwest and Ohio River Valley. Very large hail, a few tornadoes, and severe winds will be possible.
Synopsis
Latest GOES water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave encroaching upon the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies and southern British Columbia as it rounds the apex of a stout upper ridge situated over the West. This feature is expected to migrate eastward over the next 48 hours, reaching the Great Lakes region by late Thursday. Early-morning surface observations reveal the early stages of lee cyclogenesis across the northern High Plains with a long fetch of southerly flow from the TX Gulf Coast into the Plains. While moisture return is currently fairly weak, a plume of upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints will spread northeastward into the Midwest/OH Valley by Thursday afternoon ahead of a southeastward moving cold front. Strong forcing along the front within a destabilizing air mass, combined with increasing mid-level flow attendant to the upper wave, will promote scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across portions of the Midwest and OH Valley Thursday afternoon and evening.
Midwest/Great Lakes
Thunderstorm development is expected by late afternoon across the southern Lake Michigan region as the cold front begins to impinge on a plume of returning moisture. Stout capping at the base of an EML will likely limit initial storm coverage, and elongated hodographs (featuring 40-50 knot effective bulk shear values) will promote organization of discrete/semi-discrete supercells for at least an hour or two. Given the very favorable convective environment (characterized by SCP values upwards of 8-12), large to very large (2-3 inches in diameter) hail appears possible. However, it remains unclear how long storm modes will remain discrete with latest HRRR, RRFS, and MPAS solutions all suggesting relatively quick upscale growth along the front by early evening. These solutions appear reasonable given strong frontal ascent and deep-layer flow predominantly along the boundary. This may modulate the duration/coverage of the significant hail threat, and would favor a scattered severe wind threat downstream into IN and OH.
Regardless, 200-400 m2/s2 effective SRH immediately ahead of the front will support some threat for tornadoes, including the potential for a significant tornado if supercells can be maintained just ahead of the front. Additionally, the consensus among HREF/REFS solutions is a northward shift in the primary severe risk corridor towards northern IL/IN, southern lower MI, and northwest OH. 15% hail and wind probabilities were adjusted accordingly. More isolated strong/severe storms appear possible with southwestward extent along the front into central MO, but confidence in storm coverage west of the MS River is limited due to displacement from the richer moisture and stronger upper-level ascent.
..Moore.. 03/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Friday, March 27
Outlook Summary
Isolated thunderstorms are expected from the upper Ohio Valley into the Carolinas Friday morning into the afternoon, but severe thunderstorm potential appears limited.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 250715
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated thunderstorms are expected from the upper Ohio Valley into the Carolinas Friday morning into the afternoon, but severe thunderstorm potential appears limited.
Synopsis
Thunderstorm potential on Friday will primarily be focused along and ahead of a strong synoptic cold front that is forecast to push from the upper OH Valley early Friday southward into the Southeast through Friday evening. Isolated thunderstorms are likely at the start of the period along the frontal zone, but thunderstorm potential should wane from west to east through the day as the front migrates into an environment with poor mid-level lapse rates south of the OH Valley. Seasonally high dewpoints (mid to upper 50s) coupled with daytime heating across the Carolinas into southern VA will likely yield a pocket of modest buoyancy (100-250 J/kg MLCAPE and lifted indices around -1 C) where thunderstorm re-development is probable by late afternoon. Despite strong mid-level flow over the region, paltry buoyancy will likely limit updraft intensities and the overall severe threat. This idea is supported by recent extended-range RRFS and MPAS solutions, which show very limited convective signals over the Carolinas.
..Moore.. 03/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Saturday, March 28
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, March 28 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, March 29 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, March 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, March 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, April 1 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250844 SPC AC 250844
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe thunderstorm potential remains limited for this weekend, though a gradual increase in some severe threat is anticipated by the middle of next week. In the wake of a cold frontal passage on D3/Friday into D4/Saturday, surface high pressure building over the eastern Plains and OH Valley will maintain dry and stable conditions for most regions east of the Rockies. Concurrently, a slight re-amplification of an upper-level ridge this weekend over the Southwest/West Coast will maintain warm and dry conditions for the southwestern CONUS. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a reasonably consistent signal in the slow eastward migration of the upper ridge through early next week. As this occurs, surface high pressure will gradually shift off the East Coast and promote moisture return into the Plains and MS Valley. Tight clustering of GEFS members lends high confidence in the potential for a return of slightly above seasonal moisture by the D6/Monday to D7/Tuesday time frame. Thunderstorm chances should steadily increase through mid-week as southwesterly flow aloft becomes increasingly predominant and promotes ascent/lapse-rate advection over the northwestern fringe of the returning moisture. Extended-range guidance hints at severe thunderstorm potential through the D6/Monday to D8/Wednesday time frame - mainly across the upper MS Valley/Midwest within the warm conveyor region of an organizing cyclone. While confidence in the overall synoptic evolution through next week is high, notable run-to-run variability in the convective environment forecast beyond D6 suggests predictability remains too limited to warrant highlights at this time.
..Moore.. 03/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, March 29
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, March 28 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, March 29 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, March 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, March 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, April 1 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250844 SPC AC 250844
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe thunderstorm potential remains limited for this weekend, though a gradual increase in some severe threat is anticipated by the middle of next week. In the wake of a cold frontal passage on D3/Friday into D4/Saturday, surface high pressure building over the eastern Plains and OH Valley will maintain dry and stable conditions for most regions east of the Rockies. Concurrently, a slight re-amplification of an upper-level ridge this weekend over the Southwest/West Coast will maintain warm and dry conditions for the southwestern CONUS. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a reasonably consistent signal in the slow eastward migration of the upper ridge through early next week. As this occurs, surface high pressure will gradually shift off the East Coast and promote moisture return into the Plains and MS Valley. Tight clustering of GEFS members lends high confidence in the potential for a return of slightly above seasonal moisture by the D6/Monday to D7/Tuesday time frame. Thunderstorm chances should steadily increase through mid-week as southwesterly flow aloft becomes increasingly predominant and promotes ascent/lapse-rate advection over the northwestern fringe of the returning moisture. Extended-range guidance hints at severe thunderstorm potential through the D6/Monday to D8/Wednesday time frame - mainly across the upper MS Valley/Midwest within the warm conveyor region of an organizing cyclone. While confidence in the overall synoptic evolution through next week is high, notable run-to-run variability in the convective environment forecast beyond D6 suggests predictability remains too limited to warrant highlights at this time.
..Moore.. 03/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, March 30
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, March 28 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, March 29 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, March 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, March 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, April 1 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250844 SPC AC 250844
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe thunderstorm potential remains limited for this weekend, though a gradual increase in some severe threat is anticipated by the middle of next week. In the wake of a cold frontal passage on D3/Friday into D4/Saturday, surface high pressure building over the eastern Plains and OH Valley will maintain dry and stable conditions for most regions east of the Rockies. Concurrently, a slight re-amplification of an upper-level ridge this weekend over the Southwest/West Coast will maintain warm and dry conditions for the southwestern CONUS. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a reasonably consistent signal in the slow eastward migration of the upper ridge through early next week. As this occurs, surface high pressure will gradually shift off the East Coast and promote moisture return into the Plains and MS Valley. Tight clustering of GEFS members lends high confidence in the potential for a return of slightly above seasonal moisture by the D6/Monday to D7/Tuesday time frame. Thunderstorm chances should steadily increase through mid-week as southwesterly flow aloft becomes increasingly predominant and promotes ascent/lapse-rate advection over the northwestern fringe of the returning moisture. Extended-range guidance hints at severe thunderstorm potential through the D6/Monday to D8/Wednesday time frame - mainly across the upper MS Valley/Midwest within the warm conveyor region of an organizing cyclone. While confidence in the overall synoptic evolution through next week is high, notable run-to-run variability in the convective environment forecast beyond D6 suggests predictability remains too limited to warrant highlights at this time.
..Moore.. 03/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, March 31
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, March 28 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, March 29 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, March 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, March 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, April 1 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250844 SPC AC 250844
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe thunderstorm potential remains limited for this weekend, though a gradual increase in some severe threat is anticipated by the middle of next week. In the wake of a cold frontal passage on D3/Friday into D4/Saturday, surface high pressure building over the eastern Plains and OH Valley will maintain dry and stable conditions for most regions east of the Rockies. Concurrently, a slight re-amplification of an upper-level ridge this weekend over the Southwest/West Coast will maintain warm and dry conditions for the southwestern CONUS. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a reasonably consistent signal in the slow eastward migration of the upper ridge through early next week. As this occurs, surface high pressure will gradually shift off the East Coast and promote moisture return into the Plains and MS Valley. Tight clustering of GEFS members lends high confidence in the potential for a return of slightly above seasonal moisture by the D6/Monday to D7/Tuesday time frame. Thunderstorm chances should steadily increase through mid-week as southwesterly flow aloft becomes increasingly predominant and promotes ascent/lapse-rate advection over the northwestern fringe of the returning moisture. Extended-range guidance hints at severe thunderstorm potential through the D6/Monday to D8/Wednesday time frame - mainly across the upper MS Valley/Midwest within the warm conveyor region of an organizing cyclone. While confidence in the overall synoptic evolution through next week is high, notable run-to-run variability in the convective environment forecast beyond D6 suggests predictability remains too limited to warrant highlights at this time.
..Moore.. 03/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, April 1
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, March 28 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, March 29 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, March 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, March 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, April 1 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250844 SPC AC 250844
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe thunderstorm potential remains limited for this weekend, though a gradual increase in some severe threat is anticipated by the middle of next week. In the wake of a cold frontal passage on D3/Friday into D4/Saturday, surface high pressure building over the eastern Plains and OH Valley will maintain dry and stable conditions for most regions east of the Rockies. Concurrently, a slight re-amplification of an upper-level ridge this weekend over the Southwest/West Coast will maintain warm and dry conditions for the southwestern CONUS. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a reasonably consistent signal in the slow eastward migration of the upper ridge through early next week. As this occurs, surface high pressure will gradually shift off the East Coast and promote moisture return into the Plains and MS Valley. Tight clustering of GEFS members lends high confidence in the potential for a return of slightly above seasonal moisture by the D6/Monday to D7/Tuesday time frame. Thunderstorm chances should steadily increase through mid-week as southwesterly flow aloft becomes increasingly predominant and promotes ascent/lapse-rate advection over the northwestern fringe of the returning moisture. Extended-range guidance hints at severe thunderstorm potential through the D6/Monday to D8/Wednesday time frame - mainly across the upper MS Valley/Midwest within the warm conveyor region of an organizing cyclone. While confidence in the overall synoptic evolution through next week is high, notable run-to-run variability in the convective environment forecast beyond D6 suggests predictability remains too limited to warrant highlights at this time.
..Moore.. 03/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, March 25
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Thursday, March 26
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Friday, March 27
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Saturday, March 28
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, March 29
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, March 30
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, March 31
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, April 1
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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