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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Thursday, June 11

Outlook Summary

Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes region, including far eastern Iowa, northern Missouri, northern/central Illinois, southern Wisconsin, Lower Michigan, and northern Indiana. This includes the potential for widespread/intense damaging winds (some 75+ mph), large hail, and several tornadoes, some of which may be strong to intense.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 111953

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Valid 112000Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST

### THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS

### SUMMARY

Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes region, including far eastern Iowa, northern Missouri, northern/central Illinois, southern Wisconsin, Lower Michigan, and northern Indiana. This includes the potential for widespread/intense damaging winds (some 75+ mph), large hail, and several tornadoes, some of which may be strong to intense.

20z Update

The previous forecast remains mostly on track with only minor adjustments made. Across the Midwest, latest GOES imagery shows gradual clearing across southern IA/northern MO/western IL behind a decaying MCS. Surface observations across southern IA show some degree of air mass recovery is ongoing; however, the quality of destabilization with northeastward extent remains very uncertain given more extensive cloud cover, additional precipitation, and the rapid approach of the cold front from the west.

Nonetheless, regional 18z RAOBs and VWPs are sampling the approach of a 60-70 knot mid-level jet, which heralds the onset of stronger synoptic ascent across the upper MS Valley. Southerly low-level flow should strengthen through the evening in response to increasing ascent, which will likely help advect higher theta-e air north/northeastward as well as begin to augment low-level SRH. Recent MRMS composites show the onset of convective initiation along the cold front, which should maintain sufficient residence time within the returning theta-e plume for further strengthening over the coming hours. Latest high-res ensemble guidance (including WoFS and time-lagged HRRR/RRFS solutions) appear to be capturing these trends well and continue to depict the corridor of highest severe wind and tornado threat across the Moderate risk zone. As such, little change was made to the ongoing probability and intensity contours.

Upper OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic

Several loosely organized convective bands have emerged across eastern OH into western PA/NY. Regional VWPs continue to sample deep-layer bulk shear on the order of 15-20 knots, which casts doubt on the eastward extent of the severe wind threat beyond 00-02 UTC when nocturnal stabilization will begin to weaken convection. Recent CAM guidance suggests the peak wind threat should remain across western to central PA/NY, which casts considerable uncertainty on severe wind coverage further east along the Mid-Atlantic coast. Consequently, the 30% wind probabilities have been shifted west to better align with recent observed and modeled trends. (See MCDs #1091 and #1092 for additional details.)

Southern Plains

Recent surface observations show the cold front rapidly pushing southeast across TX, OK, and southeast KS. Building cumulus is also noted along the front, which suggests convective initiation is probable in the coming hours. These trends align with the previous forecast, see MCD #1090 for additional short-term details.

..Moore.. 06/11/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026/

Midwest/Great Lakes

An active and impactful severe weather event is still expected across parts of the Midwest Great Lakes later this afternoon and evening. Ongoing bowing cluster across southeast IA/northwest IL/southwest WI and vicinity may continue to pose at least some severe wind and embedded QLCS tornado threat as it continues east-northeastward across parts of the Midwest this afternoon. There is still airmass recovery underway ahead of this activity, especially into central/northern IL, northern IN, and parts of southern Lower MI where strong heating is occurring. Enhanced mid-level west-southwesterly winds associated with a potent shortwave trough over the northern Plains/Upper Midwest will overspread the developing warm sector this afternoon, and support organized severe potential, including the possibility of multiple tornadic supercells and widespread severe/damaging winds.

Even so, greater than usual uncertainty exists regarding redevelopment later today on the southern/western flank of ongoing convection across northern IL into northeast MO and vicinity. A gradual increase in both low-level and deep-layer shear is anticipated across this area as a 30-40+ kt southerly low-level jet develops eastward in tandem with the eastward-ejecting shortwave trough and mid-level jet. A mix of supercells and bowing segments appears probable as renewed thunderstorms develop along/ahead of the surface cold front this afternoon in a strongly unstable and rather favorably sheared environment. If at least semi-discrete supercell structures can be maintained, then potential exists for several tornadoes, and multiple strong to intense tornadoes (EF-2/3+) given the enhanced low-level shear. Isolated large to very large hail may also occur with any sustained supercells.

Otherwise, numerous to potentially widespread severe/damaging winds also appear likely through the period across parts of northern/central IL into southern Lower MI and northern IN. Both the ongoing cluster and eventual upscale growth of convection that develops this afternoon will likely produce severe/damaging winds, some of which could be significant (75+ mph). The northern extent of the severe risk into WI and northern Lower MI remains uncertain, but at least some wind and/or tornado threat will likely continue with eastward extent into the southern Great Lakes and northern IN this evening.

Eastern Kansas/Southern Missouri into the Southern Plains

Additional thunderstorms will likely develop this afternoon and evening along the trailing cold front into portions of eastern KS/southern MO into the southern Plains. Stronger deep-layer shear is forecast to lag behind/to the north of the cold front. Still, around 20-30 kt of effective bulk shear and moderate to strong instability will support marginal supercell structures and loosely organized multicells capable of producing both large hail and damaging winds. A large component of boundary-parallel shear will likely lead to clustering and messy convective modes through the evening before thunderstorms gradually weaken with the loss of daytime heating.

Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians

Recent visible satellite imagery across much of the Mid-Atlantic and central Appalachians shows mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions, with ample low-level moisture present per latest surface observations and area 12Z observed soundings. Large-scale ascent associated with multiple low-amplitude mid-level shortwave troughs will likely support the development of widely scattered thunderstorms by afternoon across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the central Appalachians. Though deep-layer shear is forecast to remain modest, moderate to strong instability will exist with continued diurnal heating this afternoon. This will support stronger updrafts capable of scattered severe/damaging winds and perhaps isolated hail. Multiple clusters should eventually emerge, with potential for organizing along outflow/cold pools, and more focused corridors of damaging winds possible across parts of the I-95 corridor from northern VA to eastern PA and NJ.

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

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Outlook for Friday, June 12

Outlook Summary

Clusters of thunderstorms may develop across the Appalachians into Mid Atlantic Friday afternoon through Friday evening, accompanied by potential to produce damaging wind gusts.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 111729

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS VICINITY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC

### SUMMARY

Clusters of thunderstorms may develop across the Appalachians into Mid Atlantic Friday afternoon through Friday evening, accompanied by potential to produce damaging wind gusts.

Discussion

Downstream of building mid-level ridging within the mid-latitudes, offshore of the Pacific coast, it still appears that flow will remain largely zonal across the northern tier of the interior U.S. through at least this period, between subtropical ridging centered over the northern Gulf Basin and a quasi-stationary mid-level low centered to the southwest of Hudson Bay. Across the Atlantic Seaboard, it appears that generally modest to weak, though difluent and splitting, flow will prevail, as the most substantive upstream short wave perturbations pivot across and to the northwest of the lower Great Lakes, around the periphery of the low.

In lower levels, a surface cyclone is forecast to migrate north/northwestward into the Hudson Bay vicinity and occlude Friday through Friday night, with the trailing cold front advancing southeastward through much of the Mid Atlantic by 12Z Saturday. Across the lower Ohio through southern Great Plains Red River Valleys, the front, initially reinforced by convective outflow, is forecast to weaken, while a another influx of cooler/drier air slowly spreads south of the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity, through the northern Great Plains/Upper Midwest and adjacent Great Lakes region.

..Appalachians/Mid Atlantic

There still appears a general consensus within model output that seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content will support sizable potential instability (including CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg) with insolation by early Friday afternoon, from portions of the Cumberland and Allegheny Plateau into the lee of the Blue Ridge and perhaps Poconos/Catskills. Coincident with at least subtle to weak mid-level height falls, and modest strengthening of flow in the 700-500 mb layer to 20-30 kt, the environment may become conducive to the evolution of modestly organizing clusters with potential to produce swaths of strong to severe wind gusts.

Southern Rockies and adjacent Great Plains

Moistening southerly low-level flow, in the presence of steepening low-level lapse rates with daytime heating, may contribute to sizable CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg along/east of the Guadalupe and Sacramento Mountains, through the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and Raton Mesa vicinity by early Friday evening. This may become supportive of scattered thunderstorm development with potential to produce severe hail and localized strong surface gusts.

Particularly closer to the southern periphery of the westerlies, near and east of the Raton Mesa, shear may become supportive of an organizing cluster propagating off the higher terrain, as a nocturnal low-level jet strengthens Friday evening. It might not be out of the question that probabilities for severe wind will need to be increased further across parts of northeastern New Mexico into southwestern Kansas and the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle region in later outlook updates for this period.

..Kerr.. 06/11/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Saturday, June 13

Outlook Summary

One or two evolving thunderstorm clusters appear possible across parts of the central Great Plains and lower Missouri Valley vicinity Saturday afternoon through Saturday night, accompanied by potential for strong, damaging wind gusts.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 111930

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS THROUGH LOWER MISSISOURI VALLEY REGION

### SUMMARY

One or two evolving thunderstorm clusters appear possible across parts of the central Great Plains and lower Missouri Valley vicinity Saturday afternoon through Saturday night, accompanied by potential for strong, damaging wind gusts.

Discussion

Downstream of amplified mid-level ridging, offshore of the U.S. Pacific coast through British Columbia, it appears that flow will begin to veer to an increasing northwesterly component across the Rockies through Mississippi Valley during this period. Within this regime, mid-level troughing may sharpen southwest of a lingering mid-level low centered to the southwest of Hudson Bay, through the lower Missouri Valley, but this may be comprised of at least a couple of short wave perturbations, with the details of this evolution still uncertain.

In lower levels, surges of cooler/drier air will continue to develop southward through the interior of the U.S., with the general leading edge reaching the lower Great Lakes through Ohio River, Ozarks Plateau and Texas South Plains by 12Z Sunday. This may be preceded by extensive convective development and expanding outflow, to the west-southwest of a weakening initial frontal zone to the lee of the southern Appalachians.

Central Great Plains through lower Missouri Valley

Lingering uncertainties, including those due to model spread and the extended time frame, preclude introduction of higher severe probabilities, at least at this time. However, a consensus of model output suggests at least conditional potential for the evolution of an extensive organized convective system, perhaps including one or two large clusters developing and propagating southeastward across the central Great Plains/lower Missouri Valley vicinity by late Saturday afternoon and evening.

In the wake of a weakening preceding front, it appears that low-level moisture return may contribute to a corridor of large potential instability, particularly across the central Great Plains into lower Missouri Valley/Ozark Plateau, to the north of remnant mid-level subtropical ridging. Beneath a plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the southern high plains, low-level warm advection near the nose of stronger surface heating and deeper boundary-layer mixing may provide the focus for the initiation of strongest convective development. Guidance suggests that this could occur anywhere from north central Kansas through the lower Missouri Valley, before growing upscale and propagating south-southeastward through Saturday night.

It is possible that this will occur in the presence of initially modest deep-layer mean wind fields and shear. Some strengthening of flow is possible across the region in association with the approach of a digging short wave, but much of the strengthening evident in the various model output is probably related to the convection/convective feedback. Given the magnitude of the potential instability, the evolution of strong descending rear inflow with the evolving convection appears possible, which may be accompanied by the risk for widespread severe wind gusts.

..Kerr.. 06/11/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Sunday, June 14

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110852 SPC AC 110852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Sunday

The 00z models have trended toward a much stronger short-wave trough and associated mid-level jet, which will progress from the Great Lakes and OH Valley into the Northeast. Elsewhere, a short-wave trough is forecast to move from the northern Rockies into the central Plains. At the surface, a cold front attendant to the Northeast short-wave trough will move through that region with the trailing extension of the boundary pushing south through the OH and TN Valleys into the Gulf Coast states.

A much stronger low-level jet is now forecast ahead of the cold front across the Northeast, which will aid in greater air mass destabilization than indicated in previous model runs. When coupled with notably stronger vertical shear, the setup appears favorable for organized severe storms across the Mid-Atlantic, potentially into southern New England Sunday afternoon and evening.

### Day 5/Monday

The models suggest the Sunday/central Plains short-wave trough will progress through the mid MS into OH Valleys with an associated belt of enhanced mid-level flow stretching from the central Plains into Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, there is good model agreement that the primary synoptic front and associated warm sector will lie across TX and the Gulf Coast states, to the south of the stronger mid-level winds and forcing for ascent. Some severe-weather threat may develop along and south of the front; however, the marginal vertical shear is expected to limit the overall severe-weather threat.

Slightly stronger vertical shear is forecast across the central and southern High Plains, due to an easterly upslope regime in the low-levels. While the potential for more organized storms will exist in that region, severe-weather coverage may only be isolated.

### Day 6/Tuesday

The ensemble mean and deterministic models are suggestive that a mid-level disturbance will track from the central Plains into the lower OH and TN Valleys, contributing to overall amplification of the long-wave trough in place east of the Rockies. The primary surface front is expected to remain in place across the Gulf Coast states, to the immediate south of the stronger forcing for ascent and mid-level flow. While isolated occurrences of severe weather appear possible from the southern High Plains into Southeast, the potential for an organized severe-weather event remains in question.

Days 7-8/Wednesday and Thursday

The ensemble means indicate the progression of a strong mid-level jet streak into the northern and central Plains Wednesday with that feature moving through the OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic Thursday. At the surface, the ensemble member low positions indicate clustering across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley Wednesday, and across the Great Lakes into Ontario on Thursday. The rapid poleward return of a moist and unstable air mass is expected to occur ahead of the surface low and associated frontal system. As such, some severe weather appears possible across parts of the Midwest Wednesday, and perhaps OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic Thursday.

..Mead.. 06/11/2026

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Outlook for Monday, June 15

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110852 SPC AC 110852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Sunday

The 00z models have trended toward a much stronger short-wave trough and associated mid-level jet, which will progress from the Great Lakes and OH Valley into the Northeast. Elsewhere, a short-wave trough is forecast to move from the northern Rockies into the central Plains. At the surface, a cold front attendant to the Northeast short-wave trough will move through that region with the trailing extension of the boundary pushing south through the OH and TN Valleys into the Gulf Coast states.

A much stronger low-level jet is now forecast ahead of the cold front across the Northeast, which will aid in greater air mass destabilization than indicated in previous model runs. When coupled with notably stronger vertical shear, the setup appears favorable for organized severe storms across the Mid-Atlantic, potentially into southern New England Sunday afternoon and evening.

### Day 5/Monday

The models suggest the Sunday/central Plains short-wave trough will progress through the mid MS into OH Valleys with an associated belt of enhanced mid-level flow stretching from the central Plains into Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, there is good model agreement that the primary synoptic front and associated warm sector will lie across TX and the Gulf Coast states, to the south of the stronger mid-level winds and forcing for ascent. Some severe-weather threat may develop along and south of the front; however, the marginal vertical shear is expected to limit the overall severe-weather threat.

Slightly stronger vertical shear is forecast across the central and southern High Plains, due to an easterly upslope regime in the low-levels. While the potential for more organized storms will exist in that region, severe-weather coverage may only be isolated.

### Day 6/Tuesday

The ensemble mean and deterministic models are suggestive that a mid-level disturbance will track from the central Plains into the lower OH and TN Valleys, contributing to overall amplification of the long-wave trough in place east of the Rockies. The primary surface front is expected to remain in place across the Gulf Coast states, to the immediate south of the stronger forcing for ascent and mid-level flow. While isolated occurrences of severe weather appear possible from the southern High Plains into Southeast, the potential for an organized severe-weather event remains in question.

Days 7-8/Wednesday and Thursday

The ensemble means indicate the progression of a strong mid-level jet streak into the northern and central Plains Wednesday with that feature moving through the OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic Thursday. At the surface, the ensemble member low positions indicate clustering across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley Wednesday, and across the Great Lakes into Ontario on Thursday. The rapid poleward return of a moist and unstable air mass is expected to occur ahead of the surface low and associated frontal system. As such, some severe weather appears possible across parts of the Midwest Wednesday, and perhaps OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic Thursday.

..Mead.. 06/11/2026

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Outlook for Tuesday, June 16

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110852 SPC AC 110852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Sunday

The 00z models have trended toward a much stronger short-wave trough and associated mid-level jet, which will progress from the Great Lakes and OH Valley into the Northeast. Elsewhere, a short-wave trough is forecast to move from the northern Rockies into the central Plains. At the surface, a cold front attendant to the Northeast short-wave trough will move through that region with the trailing extension of the boundary pushing south through the OH and TN Valleys into the Gulf Coast states.

A much stronger low-level jet is now forecast ahead of the cold front across the Northeast, which will aid in greater air mass destabilization than indicated in previous model runs. When coupled with notably stronger vertical shear, the setup appears favorable for organized severe storms across the Mid-Atlantic, potentially into southern New England Sunday afternoon and evening.

### Day 5/Monday

The models suggest the Sunday/central Plains short-wave trough will progress through the mid MS into OH Valleys with an associated belt of enhanced mid-level flow stretching from the central Plains into Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, there is good model agreement that the primary synoptic front and associated warm sector will lie across TX and the Gulf Coast states, to the south of the stronger mid-level winds and forcing for ascent. Some severe-weather threat may develop along and south of the front; however, the marginal vertical shear is expected to limit the overall severe-weather threat.

Slightly stronger vertical shear is forecast across the central and southern High Plains, due to an easterly upslope regime in the low-levels. While the potential for more organized storms will exist in that region, severe-weather coverage may only be isolated.

### Day 6/Tuesday

The ensemble mean and deterministic models are suggestive that a mid-level disturbance will track from the central Plains into the lower OH and TN Valleys, contributing to overall amplification of the long-wave trough in place east of the Rockies. The primary surface front is expected to remain in place across the Gulf Coast states, to the immediate south of the stronger forcing for ascent and mid-level flow. While isolated occurrences of severe weather appear possible from the southern High Plains into Southeast, the potential for an organized severe-weather event remains in question.

Days 7-8/Wednesday and Thursday

The ensemble means indicate the progression of a strong mid-level jet streak into the northern and central Plains Wednesday with that feature moving through the OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic Thursday. At the surface, the ensemble member low positions indicate clustering across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley Wednesday, and across the Great Lakes into Ontario on Thursday. The rapid poleward return of a moist and unstable air mass is expected to occur ahead of the surface low and associated frontal system. As such, some severe weather appears possible across parts of the Midwest Wednesday, and perhaps OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic Thursday.

..Mead.. 06/11/2026

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Outlook for Wednesday, June 17

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110852 SPC AC 110852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Sunday

The 00z models have trended toward a much stronger short-wave trough and associated mid-level jet, which will progress from the Great Lakes and OH Valley into the Northeast. Elsewhere, a short-wave trough is forecast to move from the northern Rockies into the central Plains. At the surface, a cold front attendant to the Northeast short-wave trough will move through that region with the trailing extension of the boundary pushing south through the OH and TN Valleys into the Gulf Coast states.

A much stronger low-level jet is now forecast ahead of the cold front across the Northeast, which will aid in greater air mass destabilization than indicated in previous model runs. When coupled with notably stronger vertical shear, the setup appears favorable for organized severe storms across the Mid-Atlantic, potentially into southern New England Sunday afternoon and evening.

### Day 5/Monday

The models suggest the Sunday/central Plains short-wave trough will progress through the mid MS into OH Valleys with an associated belt of enhanced mid-level flow stretching from the central Plains into Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, there is good model agreement that the primary synoptic front and associated warm sector will lie across TX and the Gulf Coast states, to the south of the stronger mid-level winds and forcing for ascent. Some severe-weather threat may develop along and south of the front; however, the marginal vertical shear is expected to limit the overall severe-weather threat.

Slightly stronger vertical shear is forecast across the central and southern High Plains, due to an easterly upslope regime in the low-levels. While the potential for more organized storms will exist in that region, severe-weather coverage may only be isolated.

### Day 6/Tuesday

The ensemble mean and deterministic models are suggestive that a mid-level disturbance will track from the central Plains into the lower OH and TN Valleys, contributing to overall amplification of the long-wave trough in place east of the Rockies. The primary surface front is expected to remain in place across the Gulf Coast states, to the immediate south of the stronger forcing for ascent and mid-level flow. While isolated occurrences of severe weather appear possible from the southern High Plains into Southeast, the potential for an organized severe-weather event remains in question.

Days 7-8/Wednesday and Thursday

The ensemble means indicate the progression of a strong mid-level jet streak into the northern and central Plains Wednesday with that feature moving through the OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic Thursday. At the surface, the ensemble member low positions indicate clustering across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley Wednesday, and across the Great Lakes into Ontario on Thursday. The rapid poleward return of a moist and unstable air mass is expected to occur ahead of the surface low and associated frontal system. As such, some severe weather appears possible across parts of the Midwest Wednesday, and perhaps OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic Thursday.

..Mead.. 06/11/2026

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Outlook for Thursday, June 18

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110852 SPC AC 110852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Sunday

The 00z models have trended toward a much stronger short-wave trough and associated mid-level jet, which will progress from the Great Lakes and OH Valley into the Northeast. Elsewhere, a short-wave trough is forecast to move from the northern Rockies into the central Plains. At the surface, a cold front attendant to the Northeast short-wave trough will move through that region with the trailing extension of the boundary pushing south through the OH and TN Valleys into the Gulf Coast states.

A much stronger low-level jet is now forecast ahead of the cold front across the Northeast, which will aid in greater air mass destabilization than indicated in previous model runs. When coupled with notably stronger vertical shear, the setup appears favorable for organized severe storms across the Mid-Atlantic, potentially into southern New England Sunday afternoon and evening.

### Day 5/Monday

The models suggest the Sunday/central Plains short-wave trough will progress through the mid MS into OH Valleys with an associated belt of enhanced mid-level flow stretching from the central Plains into Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, there is good model agreement that the primary synoptic front and associated warm sector will lie across TX and the Gulf Coast states, to the south of the stronger mid-level winds and forcing for ascent. Some severe-weather threat may develop along and south of the front; however, the marginal vertical shear is expected to limit the overall severe-weather threat.

Slightly stronger vertical shear is forecast across the central and southern High Plains, due to an easterly upslope regime in the low-levels. While the potential for more organized storms will exist in that region, severe-weather coverage may only be isolated.

### Day 6/Tuesday

The ensemble mean and deterministic models are suggestive that a mid-level disturbance will track from the central Plains into the lower OH and TN Valleys, contributing to overall amplification of the long-wave trough in place east of the Rockies. The primary surface front is expected to remain in place across the Gulf Coast states, to the immediate south of the stronger forcing for ascent and mid-level flow. While isolated occurrences of severe weather appear possible from the southern High Plains into Southeast, the potential for an organized severe-weather event remains in question.

Days 7-8/Wednesday and Thursday

The ensemble means indicate the progression of a strong mid-level jet streak into the northern and central Plains Wednesday with that feature moving through the OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic Thursday. At the surface, the ensemble member low positions indicate clustering across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley Wednesday, and across the Great Lakes into Ontario on Thursday. The rapid poleward return of a moist and unstable air mass is expected to occur ahead of the surface low and associated frontal system. As such, some severe weather appears possible across parts of the Midwest Wednesday, and perhaps OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic Thursday.

..Mead.. 06/11/2026

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National Risk Overview

Thursday, June 11

TORNADO: 15%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 60%

Friday, June 12

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 30%

Saturday, June 13

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Sunday, June 14

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Monday, June 15

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Tuesday, June 16

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Wednesday, June 17

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Thursday, June 18

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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