Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Monday, July 27

Outlook Summary

Severe storms capable of strong to severe wind gusts and large hail are expected across the Great Lakes and Midwest through tonight. More sporadic occurrences of damaging wind are possible in the Mid-Atlantic, Tennessee Valley, central High Plains, and southeast Arizona.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 271958

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Valid 272000Z - 281200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST STATES

### THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

### SUMMARY

Severe storms capable of strong to severe wind gusts and large hail are expected across the Great Lakes and Midwest through tonight. More sporadic occurrences of damaging wind are possible in the Mid-Atlantic, Tennessee Valley, central High Plains, and southeast Arizona.

20z Update IL/IN

An evolving convective cluster across northern IL/IN and southern lower MI should continue to move south/southeast this afternoon. Low-level convergence is maximized along a weak CAPE/ThetaE gradient laying roughly near the IN/OH border. CAM guidance and observation trends suggest this may provide a focus for convection through this afternoon and evening gradually turning the cluster further southward. Moderate buoyancy and 40+ kt of deep-layer shear parallel to the boundary could support organized linear/bowing structures with severe/damaging gusts and perhaps some QLCS tornadoes possible across northern IN and possibly extending into western OH. However, leading stratiform and cloud cover could limit the eastern extent of the higher severe risk, and confidence in the convective evolution is very low.

Additional development has been noted along the western flank of the complex over northern IL, with another cluster of storms exiting southern WI. It is possible that these new storms, and additional ascent tied to a westerly low-level jet will support a second cluster of severe storms eventually organizing and moving more south across IL/IN. Hot surface temperatures (90-95 F) and a very large reservoir of extreme buoyancy (MUCAPE 4000-5000 J/kg) extending into IL and western IN would support a risk for widespread severe/damaging gusts. Given the increased confidence in damaging winds this afternoon/evening, have shifted 30% wind probabilities farther south in IN.

Central and northern High Plains

Scattered storms ongoing over the high plains should increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates could promote severe wind gusts with stronger downdrafts, along with isolated hail. Minimal changes were made to the prior outlook, see MCD#1767 and MCD#1768 for more information.

Additional scattered thunderstorms are ongoing over parts of the Mid Atlantic/Southeast and southern AZ. These storms should continue this afternoon with potential for sporadic damaging gusts owing to heavy water loading and moderate buoyancy. Limited vertical shear and only modest clustering suggest severe potential will remain isolated before diminishing overnight.

..Lyons.. 07/27/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1149 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026/

Midwest/Ohio Valley

A large upper ridge remains present today over the central Plains/Rockies, with moderately strong northwest flow aloft from the Midwest into the OH Valley. A very moist and unstable low-level air mass resides from WI/IL into MI/IN/OH, where mostly clear skies will result in hot afternoon temperatures and MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg. Multiple clusters of intense thunderstorms are ongoing over parts of WI tracking southeastward. These storms will move through this reservoir of high CAPE, leading to the potential for an active severe weather event today. However, details of how these clusters evolve are uncertain.

Vertical shear across this region will support supercell structures, capable of damaging winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes this afternoon. However, the greater concern is if storms can congeal into a southeastward bowing system and that sweeps across Lower MI, eastern IL, IN, and western OH. Several morning CAM solutions indicate that risk, with storms spreading into KY overnight before weakening. Unfortunately, this synoptic pattern does not lend itself to a high-confidence convective forecast.

High Plains

Widespread clouds are affecting parts of western NE this morning. However, strong heating will occur north and south of these clouds, leading to afternoon thunderstorms. The most active area will likely be over the Black Hills region where damaging winds and hail are possible. Farther south, widely scattered high-based thunderstorms will affect eastern CO/western KS with a risk of damaging wind gusts.

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, July 28

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and isolated hail are possible from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas and parts of the Appalachians Tuesday into Tuesday evening. A tornado threat may develop from southeast Virginia into eastern North Carolina. Isolated severe wind gusts and large hail may occur in the central High Plains.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 271734

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS AND PARTS OF THE APPALACHIANS

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and isolated hail are possible from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas and parts of the Appalachians Tuesday into Tuesday evening. A tornado threat may develop from southeast Virginia into eastern North Carolina. Isolated severe wind gusts and large hail may occur in the central High Plains.

Southern Mid Atlantic / Appalachians / Carolinas

An upper trough will gradually deepen and move southeastward across the Mid Atlantic, with the left-front quadrant of the upper jet moving across VA and NC. At the surface, low pressure will deepen ahead of a cold front, with wind shift roughly from eastern PA into central VA and NC during the afternoon.

A moist and unstable air mass will develop across the region, and shear profiles will become increasingly favorable for supercells. The most favorable combination of shear and instability looks to be from parts of eastern VA into east-central/northeast NC. Here, 850 mb winds will increase out of the southwest to around 30 kt, with effective SRH possibly into the 200-300 m2/s2 range. A tornado or two is possible, with perhaps a transition to bows producing damaging winds. This area will be watched closely into the Day 1 period.

Farther north and also within the surface trough, shear will be weaker aloft. However, favorable low-level shear may yield a brief tornado as well into eastern PA/NJ.

Otherwise, additional storms are likely across the Appalachians as surface heating occurs beneath the relatively cool temperatures aloft. Low-level winds will be more veered in these areas, but long hodographs and substantial instability will still favor hail and locally damaging winds.

Central High Plains

Strong heating will occur under the upper ridge, with a weak lee trough developing. Surface winds will back to easterly late in the day and evening, which will increase upslope-flow and yield a moderately unstable environment by afternoon with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. This will support scattered thunderstorm development along the high terrain within a kinematic environment featuring 30-35 kt westerly deep-layer shear. Transient supercell structures appear possible, which suggest some marginally severe hail potential despite the warm mid-level temperatures. Generally mixed-modes should persist into the evening into eastern CO and far western NE with locally strong gusts.

..Jewell.. 07/27/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, July 29

Outlook Summary

Isolated severe storms capable of mainly damaging winds appear possible Wednesday over parts of southern Georgia and Alabama, and over much of northern Florida. A few severe storms are also possible over the central High Plains late in the day.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 271920

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND ALABAMA INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA

### SUMMARY

Isolated severe storms capable of mainly damaging winds appear possible Wednesday over parts of southern Georgia and Alabama, and over much of northern Florida. A few severe storms are also possible over the central High Plains late in the day.

Southeast

The upper trough over the eastern states will generally weaken as the low occludes over the Northeast. A surface low will redevelop over the Atlantic, with drier air spreading southeast across much of the eastern seaboard behind a cold front.

Southern portions of the cold front will proceed southward across GA, AL, and into FL, and the corridor immediately ahead of this front will have severe wind potential. Strong heating will occur while a ribbon of 70s F dewpoints are maintained. Tall instability profiles per forecast soundings and MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg will favor high echo tops and possible water-loaded severe downbursts. Shear will be weak, but the general northwest flow regime on the far southern periphery of the upper trough will aid southeastward storm motion and locally severe wind gusts during the afternoon.

Northern/Central High Plains

A lee trough will develop over eastern MT/WY into the western Dakotas as a minor disturbance rounds the upper ridge and enhances deep-layer shear late in the day. Mid 50s to near 60 F dewpoints will contribute to up to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, and lapse rates will be relatively steep through a deep layer. Storms are likely to form along the length of the surface trough across eastern MT and WY, with activity spreading eastward into the western Dakotas during the evening. The deeply mixed boundary layer should support strong outflow, which may be locally damaging. Sporadic marginal hail cannot be ruled out as well.

..Jewell.. 07/27/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Thursday, July 30

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270826 SPC AC 270826

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Valid 301200Z - 041200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Thursday

A short-wave trough is forecast to move through the northern Plains and upper MS Valley, within the northeast periphery of an upper high centered over the southern Rockies. At the surface, a weak cold front is expected to follow the track of the upper-air system with moderate to strong instability expected by afternoon ahead of the boundary. Various deterministic and ensemble guidance indicates thunderstorms developing over the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley with subsequent movement into the mid MO Valley and perhaps upper Midwest Thursday night. Forecast vertical shear is on the margins of that which supports organized storm modes and an associated greater severe weather threat. Nonetheless, isolated severe weather appears likely, requiring at least low probabilities in the Day 3 time frame.

### Day 5/Friday

The Day 4 short-wave trough is expected to continue southeast through the Midwest with an associated surface low developing into the mid MS Valley. A trailing cool front will extend through the Ozark Plateau into the Southern Plains. Persistent low-level ridging from the lower Great Lakes into the TN Valley will limit the eastward extent of more robust air mass destabilization ahead of the surface low and along the track of the short-wave trough. It does appear that a corridor of stronger instability and modest vertical shear will develop from the mid MS Valley into the Ozark Plateau, where a few severe storms appear possible.

### Day 6-8/Saturday through Monday

The 00Z ensemble means remain in good agreement in depicting a stronger short-wave trough and attending belt of mid-level flow progressing along the international border from the Pacific northwest to the northern Plains. Some severe weather threat could materialize along an associated cold front over the northern Plains on Sunday and the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley on Monday.

..Mead.. 07/27/2026

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Outlook for Friday, July 31

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270826 SPC AC 270826

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Valid 301200Z - 041200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Thursday

A short-wave trough is forecast to move through the northern Plains and upper MS Valley, within the northeast periphery of an upper high centered over the southern Rockies. At the surface, a weak cold front is expected to follow the track of the upper-air system with moderate to strong instability expected by afternoon ahead of the boundary. Various deterministic and ensemble guidance indicates thunderstorms developing over the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley with subsequent movement into the mid MO Valley and perhaps upper Midwest Thursday night. Forecast vertical shear is on the margins of that which supports organized storm modes and an associated greater severe weather threat. Nonetheless, isolated severe weather appears likely, requiring at least low probabilities in the Day 3 time frame.

### Day 5/Friday

The Day 4 short-wave trough is expected to continue southeast through the Midwest with an associated surface low developing into the mid MS Valley. A trailing cool front will extend through the Ozark Plateau into the Southern Plains. Persistent low-level ridging from the lower Great Lakes into the TN Valley will limit the eastward extent of more robust air mass destabilization ahead of the surface low and along the track of the short-wave trough. It does appear that a corridor of stronger instability and modest vertical shear will develop from the mid MS Valley into the Ozark Plateau, where a few severe storms appear possible.

### Day 6-8/Saturday through Monday

The 00Z ensemble means remain in good agreement in depicting a stronger short-wave trough and attending belt of mid-level flow progressing along the international border from the Pacific northwest to the northern Plains. Some severe weather threat could materialize along an associated cold front over the northern Plains on Sunday and the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley on Monday.

..Mead.. 07/27/2026

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Outlook for Saturday, August 1

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270826 SPC AC 270826

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Valid 301200Z - 041200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Thursday

A short-wave trough is forecast to move through the northern Plains and upper MS Valley, within the northeast periphery of an upper high centered over the southern Rockies. At the surface, a weak cold front is expected to follow the track of the upper-air system with moderate to strong instability expected by afternoon ahead of the boundary. Various deterministic and ensemble guidance indicates thunderstorms developing over the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley with subsequent movement into the mid MO Valley and perhaps upper Midwest Thursday night. Forecast vertical shear is on the margins of that which supports organized storm modes and an associated greater severe weather threat. Nonetheless, isolated severe weather appears likely, requiring at least low probabilities in the Day 3 time frame.

### Day 5/Friday

The Day 4 short-wave trough is expected to continue southeast through the Midwest with an associated surface low developing into the mid MS Valley. A trailing cool front will extend through the Ozark Plateau into the Southern Plains. Persistent low-level ridging from the lower Great Lakes into the TN Valley will limit the eastward extent of more robust air mass destabilization ahead of the surface low and along the track of the short-wave trough. It does appear that a corridor of stronger instability and modest vertical shear will develop from the mid MS Valley into the Ozark Plateau, where a few severe storms appear possible.

### Day 6-8/Saturday through Monday

The 00Z ensemble means remain in good agreement in depicting a stronger short-wave trough and attending belt of mid-level flow progressing along the international border from the Pacific northwest to the northern Plains. Some severe weather threat could materialize along an associated cold front over the northern Plains on Sunday and the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley on Monday.

..Mead.. 07/27/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, August 2

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270826 SPC AC 270826

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Valid 301200Z - 041200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Thursday

A short-wave trough is forecast to move through the northern Plains and upper MS Valley, within the northeast periphery of an upper high centered over the southern Rockies. At the surface, a weak cold front is expected to follow the track of the upper-air system with moderate to strong instability expected by afternoon ahead of the boundary. Various deterministic and ensemble guidance indicates thunderstorms developing over the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley with subsequent movement into the mid MO Valley and perhaps upper Midwest Thursday night. Forecast vertical shear is on the margins of that which supports organized storm modes and an associated greater severe weather threat. Nonetheless, isolated severe weather appears likely, requiring at least low probabilities in the Day 3 time frame.

### Day 5/Friday

The Day 4 short-wave trough is expected to continue southeast through the Midwest with an associated surface low developing into the mid MS Valley. A trailing cool front will extend through the Ozark Plateau into the Southern Plains. Persistent low-level ridging from the lower Great Lakes into the TN Valley will limit the eastward extent of more robust air mass destabilization ahead of the surface low and along the track of the short-wave trough. It does appear that a corridor of stronger instability and modest vertical shear will develop from the mid MS Valley into the Ozark Plateau, where a few severe storms appear possible.

### Day 6-8/Saturday through Monday

The 00Z ensemble means remain in good agreement in depicting a stronger short-wave trough and attending belt of mid-level flow progressing along the international border from the Pacific northwest to the northern Plains. Some severe weather threat could materialize along an associated cold front over the northern Plains on Sunday and the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley on Monday.

..Mead.. 07/27/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, August 3

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270826 SPC AC 270826

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Valid 301200Z - 041200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Thursday

A short-wave trough is forecast to move through the northern Plains and upper MS Valley, within the northeast periphery of an upper high centered over the southern Rockies. At the surface, a weak cold front is expected to follow the track of the upper-air system with moderate to strong instability expected by afternoon ahead of the boundary. Various deterministic and ensemble guidance indicates thunderstorms developing over the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley with subsequent movement into the mid MO Valley and perhaps upper Midwest Thursday night. Forecast vertical shear is on the margins of that which supports organized storm modes and an associated greater severe weather threat. Nonetheless, isolated severe weather appears likely, requiring at least low probabilities in the Day 3 time frame.

### Day 5/Friday

The Day 4 short-wave trough is expected to continue southeast through the Midwest with an associated surface low developing into the mid MS Valley. A trailing cool front will extend through the Ozark Plateau into the Southern Plains. Persistent low-level ridging from the lower Great Lakes into the TN Valley will limit the eastward extent of more robust air mass destabilization ahead of the surface low and along the track of the short-wave trough. It does appear that a corridor of stronger instability and modest vertical shear will develop from the mid MS Valley into the Ozark Plateau, where a few severe storms appear possible.

### Day 6-8/Saturday through Monday

The 00Z ensemble means remain in good agreement in depicting a stronger short-wave trough and attending belt of mid-level flow progressing along the international border from the Pacific northwest to the northern Plains. Some severe weather threat could materialize along an associated cold front over the northern Plains on Sunday and the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley on Monday.

..Mead.. 07/27/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Monday, July 27

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 30%

Tuesday, July 28

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 30%

Wednesday, July 29

ANY SEVERE: 5%

Thursday, July 30

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, July 31

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Saturday, August 1

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Sunday, August 2

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Monday, August 3

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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