Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, February 25
Outlook Summary
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 251254
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026
Valid 251300Z - 261200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.
Discussion
West-northwesterly winds aloft will be prevalent across the majority of the CONUS through tonight, broadly sandwiched between an anticyclone near Baja and an upper trough centered near Hudson Bay. An embedded/modestly amplifying shortwave trough over the northern High Plains, and diurnal heating/steepening lapse rates, will influence isolated thunderstorm potential this afternoon across higher terrain of Wyoming/Colorado into the central High Plains. A few convectively influenced stronger wind gusts could occur this afternoon through around sunset within a well-mixed boundary-layer environment, but severe thunderstorms currently seem unlikely. Thunderstorm potential will otherwise develop east-southeastward toward the Ozarks/Mid-South/Tennessee Valley tonight as warm/moist advection interfaces with a southward-spreading front, with weak buoyancy expected to limit hail potential with this mostly elevated convection.
..Guyer/Grams.. 02/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Thursday, February 26
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Southeast on Thursday, the strongest of which may be capable of producing a couple of strong wind gusts.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 250632
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Southeast on Thursday, the strongest of which may be capable of producing a couple of strong wind gusts.
Discussion
A mid-level shortwave trough over the Central Plains is forecast to weaken as it tracks southwest toward the Gulf Coast states during the day Thursday. At the surface, a low initially located across central Texas will shift southward during the day, leaving an elongated area of low pressure stretching east-northeast along a residual surface front. This boundary is expected to sag slowly southward through the day, though low-level convergence along the front appears weak.
Central Gulf Coast into the Southeast
Boundary-layer moisture will be characterized by dewpoints perhaps as high as mid 60Fs across the northern Gulf Coast decreasing to mid 50Fs across northeast Alabama and northwest Georgia. The strongest instability is expected across Louisiana, where MUCAPE may approach 1000 J/kg. However, forecast soundings across this region indicate a notable capping inversion between 850 and 700 mb. Further north and east, the airmass will be characterized by lesser instability but much weaker capping inversion.
Showers and a few thunderstorms are likely to develop along and ahead of the sagging surface front. The overall severe threat should be limited owing to the meager instability and the weakening nature of the primary forcing mechanism. Additionally, low-level shear is notably weaker than previous model runs – continuing the trend started yesterday.
Nevertheless, sufficient deep-layer shear persists to support organized linear modes, especially with the stronger convective elements. While the lack of stronger low-level forcing and meager low-level buoyancy should prevent a widespread event, the more robust convective segments will be capable of producing isolated strong/damaging wind gusts.
..Marsh.. 02/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Friday, February 27
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms will be possible across the Southeast on Friday. Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 250825
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms will be possible across the Southeast on Friday. Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected.
Discussion
Showers and a few thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the forecast period across portions of the Southeast along and south of a slow moving surface front. These showers and thunderstorms will likely be aided by a modest low-level jet/warm-air advection regime. These thunderstorms will persist into early Friday afternoon within a moist, uncapped environment and broad troughing aloft. Meager instability (on the order of less than 500 J/kg), decreasing convergence along the surface front, and generally weakening kinematic field should preclude any organized severe potential.
..Marsh.. 02/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Saturday, February 28
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, February 28 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, March 1 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, March 2 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, March 3 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, March 4 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 251039 SPC AC 251039
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0439 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
Ensemble guidance continues to support a large-scale change to the overall upper-air pattern during this forecast period. The western ridge/eastern trough should flip, evolving toward a western trough and eastern ridge. As this happens, southwest mid-level flow into the central US will support a gradual warming/moistening of the Plains' low-level environment. Details of how far north and the overall quality of the moisture return remain to be seen.
This moisture return will begin in earnest on Saturday (Day 4) as southerly winds take hold across the central US. However, a cold front will suppress this low-level moisture south into central Texas on Sunday and Monday (Days 5 and 6), with some guidance members suggesting a reinforcing frontal push on Tuesday.
By the middle of next week (Days 7 and 8), the frontal boundary should weaken across Texas and redevelop northward. This will allow low-level moisture to begin advancing northward into the Central Plains. However the speed and strength of this low-level moisture advection varies greatly between different ensembles and even within the membership of specific ensembles. As such, the overall potential for organized severe weather on any day looks to be too low for unconditional probabilities. However, pattern recognition suggests thunderstorm (and severe) potential should increase across portions of the central US just beyond this forecast period.
..Marsh.. 02/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, March 1
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, February 28 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, March 1 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, March 2 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, March 3 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, March 4 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 251039 SPC AC 251039
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0439 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
Ensemble guidance continues to support a large-scale change to the overall upper-air pattern during this forecast period. The western ridge/eastern trough should flip, evolving toward a western trough and eastern ridge. As this happens, southwest mid-level flow into the central US will support a gradual warming/moistening of the Plains' low-level environment. Details of how far north and the overall quality of the moisture return remain to be seen.
This moisture return will begin in earnest on Saturday (Day 4) as southerly winds take hold across the central US. However, a cold front will suppress this low-level moisture south into central Texas on Sunday and Monday (Days 5 and 6), with some guidance members suggesting a reinforcing frontal push on Tuesday.
By the middle of next week (Days 7 and 8), the frontal boundary should weaken across Texas and redevelop northward. This will allow low-level moisture to begin advancing northward into the Central Plains. However the speed and strength of this low-level moisture advection varies greatly between different ensembles and even within the membership of specific ensembles. As such, the overall potential for organized severe weather on any day looks to be too low for unconditional probabilities. However, pattern recognition suggests thunderstorm (and severe) potential should increase across portions of the central US just beyond this forecast period.
..Marsh.. 02/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, March 2
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, February 28 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, March 1 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, March 2 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, March 3 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, March 4 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 251039 SPC AC 251039
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0439 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
Ensemble guidance continues to support a large-scale change to the overall upper-air pattern during this forecast period. The western ridge/eastern trough should flip, evolving toward a western trough and eastern ridge. As this happens, southwest mid-level flow into the central US will support a gradual warming/moistening of the Plains' low-level environment. Details of how far north and the overall quality of the moisture return remain to be seen.
This moisture return will begin in earnest on Saturday (Day 4) as southerly winds take hold across the central US. However, a cold front will suppress this low-level moisture south into central Texas on Sunday and Monday (Days 5 and 6), with some guidance members suggesting a reinforcing frontal push on Tuesday.
By the middle of next week (Days 7 and 8), the frontal boundary should weaken across Texas and redevelop northward. This will allow low-level moisture to begin advancing northward into the Central Plains. However the speed and strength of this low-level moisture advection varies greatly between different ensembles and even within the membership of specific ensembles. As such, the overall potential for organized severe weather on any day looks to be too low for unconditional probabilities. However, pattern recognition suggests thunderstorm (and severe) potential should increase across portions of the central US just beyond this forecast period.
..Marsh.. 02/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, March 3
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, February 28 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, March 1 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, March 2 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, March 3 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, March 4 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 251039 SPC AC 251039
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0439 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
Ensemble guidance continues to support a large-scale change to the overall upper-air pattern during this forecast period. The western ridge/eastern trough should flip, evolving toward a western trough and eastern ridge. As this happens, southwest mid-level flow into the central US will support a gradual warming/moistening of the Plains' low-level environment. Details of how far north and the overall quality of the moisture return remain to be seen.
This moisture return will begin in earnest on Saturday (Day 4) as southerly winds take hold across the central US. However, a cold front will suppress this low-level moisture south into central Texas on Sunday and Monday (Days 5 and 6), with some guidance members suggesting a reinforcing frontal push on Tuesday.
By the middle of next week (Days 7 and 8), the frontal boundary should weaken across Texas and redevelop northward. This will allow low-level moisture to begin advancing northward into the Central Plains. However the speed and strength of this low-level moisture advection varies greatly between different ensembles and even within the membership of specific ensembles. As such, the overall potential for organized severe weather on any day looks to be too low for unconditional probabilities. However, pattern recognition suggests thunderstorm (and severe) potential should increase across portions of the central US just beyond this forecast period.
..Marsh.. 02/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, March 4
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, February 28 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, March 1 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, March 2 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, March 3 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, March 4 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 251039 SPC AC 251039
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0439 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
Ensemble guidance continues to support a large-scale change to the overall upper-air pattern during this forecast period. The western ridge/eastern trough should flip, evolving toward a western trough and eastern ridge. As this happens, southwest mid-level flow into the central US will support a gradual warming/moistening of the Plains' low-level environment. Details of how far north and the overall quality of the moisture return remain to be seen.
This moisture return will begin in earnest on Saturday (Day 4) as southerly winds take hold across the central US. However, a cold front will suppress this low-level moisture south into central Texas on Sunday and Monday (Days 5 and 6), with some guidance members suggesting a reinforcing frontal push on Tuesday.
By the middle of next week (Days 7 and 8), the frontal boundary should weaken across Texas and redevelop northward. This will allow low-level moisture to begin advancing northward into the Central Plains. However the speed and strength of this low-level moisture advection varies greatly between different ensembles and even within the membership of specific ensembles. As such, the overall potential for organized severe weather on any day looks to be too low for unconditional probabilities. However, pattern recognition suggests thunderstorm (and severe) potential should increase across portions of the central US just beyond this forecast period.
..Marsh.. 02/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, February 25
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Thursday, February 26
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Friday, February 27
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Saturday, February 28
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, March 1
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, March 2
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, March 3
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, March 4
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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