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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Thursday, June 11
Friday, June 12
Saturday, June 13
Sunday, June 14
Monday, June 15
Tuesday, June 16
Wednesday, June 17
Thursday, June 18

Outlook for Thursday, June 11

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms will continue this evening across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes region. This includes the potential for tornadoes (possibly strong), widespread/intense damaging winds (some 75+ mph), and isolated hail.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 10%

wind 45%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 120100

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Valid 120100Z - 121200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES

### THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms will continue this evening across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes region. This includes the potential for tornadoes (possibly strong), widespread/intense damaging winds (some 75+ mph), and isolated hail.

Parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes

A rather volatile environment remains in place this evening across parts of IL/IN and southwest Lower MI, especially in the vicinity of a modified outflow across northern IL/IN. Rich low-level moisture, moderate to strong buoyancy, and strong low-level shear/SRH will continue to support all severe hazards through much of the evening. Convection has largely taken on a linear or cluster mode, with an attendant threat of severe/damaging gusts and line-embedded tornadoes. Any discrete cells that can be maintained within or ahead of ongoing convection will continue to pose a conditional strong-tornado threat, along with isolated hail potential. See MCD 1101 and MCD 1102 for more information regarding the short-term threat in this area.

Increasing CINH and decreasing MLCAPE with eastward extent should eventually result in a weakening trend, though an organized severe threat may reach parts of southeast MI and western OH later tonight.

### OK/TX into MO/northern AR

Scattered strong to locally severe storms are ongoing from parts of western/central OK into MO, generally along or just behind a southward moving cold front. Moderate to strong buoyancy and deep-layer shear of around 25-35 kt near the front will continue to support occasional storm organization and a continued threat of hail and localized severe gusts, though convection may increasingly become undercut by the front with time. An isolated severe threat may eventually spread toward the Red River into western/northern AR late tonight.

Mid Atlantic vicinity

Loosely organized storm clusters with a history of producing wind damage are approaching the Mid Atlantic coast this evening. While deep-layer shear will continue to be modest at best, a very warm/moist boundary layer and moderate buoyancy will continue to support potential for strong to locally severe gusts and scattered wind damage, before convection weakens and/or moves offshore later tonight.

..Dean.. 06/12/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Friday, June 12

Outlook Summary

Clusters of thunderstorms may develop across the Appalachians into Mid Atlantic Friday afternoon through Friday evening, accompanied by potential to produce damaging wind gusts.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind 30%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 111729

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS VICINITY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC

### SUMMARY

Clusters of thunderstorms may develop across the Appalachians into Mid Atlantic Friday afternoon through Friday evening, accompanied by potential to produce damaging wind gusts.

Discussion

Downstream of building mid-level ridging within the mid-latitudes, offshore of the Pacific coast, it still appears that flow will remain largely zonal across the northern tier of the interior U.S. through at least this period, between subtropical ridging centered over the northern Gulf Basin and a quasi-stationary mid-level low centered to the southwest of Hudson Bay. Across the Atlantic Seaboard, it appears that generally modest to weak, though difluent and splitting, flow will prevail, as the most substantive upstream short wave perturbations pivot across and to the northwest of the lower Great Lakes, around the periphery of the low.

In lower levels, a surface cyclone is forecast to migrate north/northwestward into the Hudson Bay vicinity and occlude Friday through Friday night, with the trailing cold front advancing southeastward through much of the Mid Atlantic by 12Z Saturday. Across the lower Ohio through southern Great Plains Red River Valleys, the front, initially reinforced by convective outflow, is forecast to weaken, while a another influx of cooler/drier air slowly spreads south of the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity, through the northern Great Plains/Upper Midwest and adjacent Great Lakes region.

..Appalachians/Mid Atlantic

There still appears a general consensus within model output that seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content will support sizable potential instability (including CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg) with insolation by early Friday afternoon, from portions of the Cumberland and Allegheny Plateau into the lee of the Blue Ridge and perhaps Poconos/Catskills. Coincident with at least subtle to weak mid-level height falls, and modest strengthening of flow in the 700-500 mb layer to 20-30 kt, the environment may become conducive to the evolution of modestly organizing clusters with potential to produce swaths of strong to severe wind gusts.

Southern Rockies and adjacent Great Plains

Moistening southerly low-level flow, in the presence of steepening low-level lapse rates with daytime heating, may contribute to sizable CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg along/east of the Guadalupe and Sacramento Mountains, through the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and Raton Mesa vicinity by early Friday evening. This may become supportive of scattered thunderstorm development with potential to produce severe hail and localized strong surface gusts.

Particularly closer to the southern periphery of the westerlies, near and east of the Raton Mesa, shear may become supportive of an organizing cluster propagating off the higher terrain, as a nocturnal low-level jet strengthens Friday evening. It might not be out of the question that probabilities for severe wind will need to be increased further across parts of northeastern New Mexico into southwestern Kansas and the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle region in later outlook updates for this period.

..Kerr.. 06/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Saturday, June 13

Outlook Summary

One or two evolving thunderstorm clusters appear possible across parts of the central Great Plains and lower Missouri Valley vicinity Saturday afternoon through Saturday night, accompanied by potential for strong, damaging wind gusts.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 111930

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS THROUGH LOWER MISSISOURI VALLEY REGION

### SUMMARY

One or two evolving thunderstorm clusters appear possible across parts of the central Great Plains and lower Missouri Valley vicinity Saturday afternoon through Saturday night, accompanied by potential for strong, damaging wind gusts.

Discussion

Downstream of amplified mid-level ridging, offshore of the U.S. Pacific coast through British Columbia, it appears that flow will begin to veer to an increasing northwesterly component across the Rockies through Mississippi Valley during this period. Within this regime, mid-level troughing may sharpen southwest of a lingering mid-level low centered to the southwest of Hudson Bay, through the lower Missouri Valley, but this may be comprised of at least a couple of short wave perturbations, with the details of this evolution still uncertain.

In lower levels, surges of cooler/drier air will continue to develop southward through the interior of the U.S., with the general leading edge reaching the lower Great Lakes through Ohio River, Ozarks Plateau and Texas South Plains by 12Z Sunday. This may be preceded by extensive convective development and expanding outflow, to the west-southwest of a weakening initial frontal zone to the lee of the southern Appalachians.

Central Great Plains through lower Missouri Valley

Lingering uncertainties, including those due to model spread and the extended time frame, preclude introduction of higher severe probabilities, at least at this time. However, a consensus of model output suggests at least conditional potential for the evolution of an extensive organized convective system, perhaps including one or two large clusters developing and propagating southeastward across the central Great Plains/lower Missouri Valley vicinity by late Saturday afternoon and evening.

In the wake of a weakening preceding front, it appears that low-level moisture return may contribute to a corridor of large potential instability, particularly across the central Great Plains into lower Missouri Valley/Ozark Plateau, to the north of remnant mid-level subtropical ridging. Beneath a plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the southern high plains, low-level warm advection near the nose of stronger surface heating and deeper boundary-layer mixing may provide the focus for the initiation of strongest convective development. Guidance suggests that this could occur anywhere from north central Kansas through the lower Missouri Valley, before growing upscale and propagating south-southeastward through Saturday night.

It is possible that this will occur in the presence of initially modest deep-layer mean wind fields and shear. Some strengthening of flow is possible across the region in association with the approach of a digging short wave, but much of the strengthening evident in the various model output is probably related to the convection/convective feedback. Given the magnitude of the potential instability, the evolution of strong descending rear inflow with the evolving convection appears possible, which may be accompanied by the risk for widespread severe wind gusts.

..Kerr.. 06/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Sunday, June 14

Outlook Images

any severe 15%

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Sunday, June 14 15%
Day 5 Monday, June 15 predictability too low
Day 6 Tuesday, June 16 predictability too low
Day 7 Wednesday, June 17 predictability too low
Day 8 Thursday, June 18 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110852 SPC AC 110852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Sunday

The 00z models have trended toward a much stronger short-wave trough and associated mid-level jet, which will progress from the Great Lakes and OH Valley into the Northeast. Elsewhere, a short-wave trough is forecast to move from the northern Rockies into the central Plains. At the surface, a cold front attendant to the Northeast short-wave trough will move through that region with the trailing extension of the boundary pushing south through the OH and TN Valleys into the Gulf Coast states.

A much stronger low-level jet is now forecast ahead of the cold front across the Northeast, which will aid in greater air mass destabilization than indicated in previous model runs. When coupled with notably stronger vertical shear, the setup appears favorable for organized severe storms across the Mid-Atlantic, potentially into southern New England Sunday afternoon and evening.

### Day 5/Monday

The models suggest the Sunday/central Plains short-wave trough will progress through the mid MS into OH Valleys with an associated belt of enhanced mid-level flow stretching from the central Plains into Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, there is good model agreement that the primary synoptic front and associated warm sector will lie across TX and the Gulf Coast states, to the south of the stronger mid-level winds and forcing for ascent. Some severe-weather threat may develop along and south of the front; however, the marginal vertical shear is expected to limit the overall severe-weather threat.

Slightly stronger vertical shear is forecast across the central and southern High Plains, due to an easterly upslope regime in the low-levels. While the potential for more organized storms will exist in that region, severe-weather coverage may only be isolated.

### Day 6/Tuesday

The ensemble mean and deterministic models are suggestive that a mid-level disturbance will track from the central Plains into the lower OH and TN Valleys, contributing to overall amplification of the long-wave trough in place east of the Rockies. The primary surface front is expected to remain in place across the Gulf Coast states, to the immediate south of the stronger forcing for ascent and mid-level flow. While isolated occurrences of severe weather appear possible from the southern High Plains into Southeast, the potential for an organized severe-weather event remains in question.

Days 7-8/Wednesday and Thursday

The ensemble means indicate the progression of a strong mid-level jet streak into the northern and central Plains Wednesday with that feature moving through the OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic Thursday. At the surface, the ensemble member low positions indicate clustering across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley Wednesday, and across the Great Lakes into Ontario on Thursday. The rapid poleward return of a moist and unstable air mass is expected to occur ahead of the surface low and associated frontal system. As such, some severe weather appears possible across parts of the Midwest Wednesday, and perhaps OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic Thursday.

..Mead.. 06/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Monday, June 15

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Sunday, June 14 15%
Day 5 Monday, June 15 predictability too low
Day 6 Tuesday, June 16 predictability too low
Day 7 Wednesday, June 17 predictability too low
Day 8 Thursday, June 18 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110852 SPC AC 110852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Sunday

The 00z models have trended toward a much stronger short-wave trough and associated mid-level jet, which will progress from the Great Lakes and OH Valley into the Northeast. Elsewhere, a short-wave trough is forecast to move from the northern Rockies into the central Plains. At the surface, a cold front attendant to the Northeast short-wave trough will move through that region with the trailing extension of the boundary pushing south through the OH and TN Valleys into the Gulf Coast states.

A much stronger low-level jet is now forecast ahead of the cold front across the Northeast, which will aid in greater air mass destabilization than indicated in previous model runs. When coupled with notably stronger vertical shear, the setup appears favorable for organized severe storms across the Mid-Atlantic, potentially into southern New England Sunday afternoon and evening.

### Day 5/Monday

The models suggest the Sunday/central Plains short-wave trough will progress through the mid MS into OH Valleys with an associated belt of enhanced mid-level flow stretching from the central Plains into Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, there is good model agreement that the primary synoptic front and associated warm sector will lie across TX and the Gulf Coast states, to the south of the stronger mid-level winds and forcing for ascent. Some severe-weather threat may develop along and south of the front; however, the marginal vertical shear is expected to limit the overall severe-weather threat.

Slightly stronger vertical shear is forecast across the central and southern High Plains, due to an easterly upslope regime in the low-levels. While the potential for more organized storms will exist in that region, severe-weather coverage may only be isolated.

### Day 6/Tuesday

The ensemble mean and deterministic models are suggestive that a mid-level disturbance will track from the central Plains into the lower OH and TN Valleys, contributing to overall amplification of the long-wave trough in place east of the Rockies. The primary surface front is expected to remain in place across the Gulf Coast states, to the immediate south of the stronger forcing for ascent and mid-level flow. While isolated occurrences of severe weather appear possible from the southern High Plains into Southeast, the potential for an organized severe-weather event remains in question.

Days 7-8/Wednesday and Thursday

The ensemble means indicate the progression of a strong mid-level jet streak into the northern and central Plains Wednesday with that feature moving through the OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic Thursday. At the surface, the ensemble member low positions indicate clustering across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley Wednesday, and across the Great Lakes into Ontario on Thursday. The rapid poleward return of a moist and unstable air mass is expected to occur ahead of the surface low and associated frontal system. As such, some severe weather appears possible across parts of the Midwest Wednesday, and perhaps OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic Thursday.

..Mead.. 06/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Tuesday, June 16

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Sunday, June 14 15%
Day 5 Monday, June 15 predictability too low
Day 6 Tuesday, June 16 predictability too low
Day 7 Wednesday, June 17 predictability too low
Day 8 Thursday, June 18 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110852 SPC AC 110852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Sunday

The 00z models have trended toward a much stronger short-wave trough and associated mid-level jet, which will progress from the Great Lakes and OH Valley into the Northeast. Elsewhere, a short-wave trough is forecast to move from the northern Rockies into the central Plains. At the surface, a cold front attendant to the Northeast short-wave trough will move through that region with the trailing extension of the boundary pushing south through the OH and TN Valleys into the Gulf Coast states.

A much stronger low-level jet is now forecast ahead of the cold front across the Northeast, which will aid in greater air mass destabilization than indicated in previous model runs. When coupled with notably stronger vertical shear, the setup appears favorable for organized severe storms across the Mid-Atlantic, potentially into southern New England Sunday afternoon and evening.

### Day 5/Monday

The models suggest the Sunday/central Plains short-wave trough will progress through the mid MS into OH Valleys with an associated belt of enhanced mid-level flow stretching from the central Plains into Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, there is good model agreement that the primary synoptic front and associated warm sector will lie across TX and the Gulf Coast states, to the south of the stronger mid-level winds and forcing for ascent. Some severe-weather threat may develop along and south of the front; however, the marginal vertical shear is expected to limit the overall severe-weather threat.

Slightly stronger vertical shear is forecast across the central and southern High Plains, due to an easterly upslope regime in the low-levels. While the potential for more organized storms will exist in that region, severe-weather coverage may only be isolated.

### Day 6/Tuesday

The ensemble mean and deterministic models are suggestive that a mid-level disturbance will track from the central Plains into the lower OH and TN Valleys, contributing to overall amplification of the long-wave trough in place east of the Rockies. The primary surface front is expected to remain in place across the Gulf Coast states, to the immediate south of the stronger forcing for ascent and mid-level flow. While isolated occurrences of severe weather appear possible from the southern High Plains into Southeast, the potential for an organized severe-weather event remains in question.

Days 7-8/Wednesday and Thursday

The ensemble means indicate the progression of a strong mid-level jet streak into the northern and central Plains Wednesday with that feature moving through the OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic Thursday. At the surface, the ensemble member low positions indicate clustering across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley Wednesday, and across the Great Lakes into Ontario on Thursday. The rapid poleward return of a moist and unstable air mass is expected to occur ahead of the surface low and associated frontal system. As such, some severe weather appears possible across parts of the Midwest Wednesday, and perhaps OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic Thursday.

..Mead.. 06/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Wednesday, June 17

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Sunday, June 14 15%
Day 5 Monday, June 15 predictability too low
Day 6 Tuesday, June 16 predictability too low
Day 7 Wednesday, June 17 predictability too low
Day 8 Thursday, June 18 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110852 SPC AC 110852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Sunday

The 00z models have trended toward a much stronger short-wave trough and associated mid-level jet, which will progress from the Great Lakes and OH Valley into the Northeast. Elsewhere, a short-wave trough is forecast to move from the northern Rockies into the central Plains. At the surface, a cold front attendant to the Northeast short-wave trough will move through that region with the trailing extension of the boundary pushing south through the OH and TN Valleys into the Gulf Coast states.

A much stronger low-level jet is now forecast ahead of the cold front across the Northeast, which will aid in greater air mass destabilization than indicated in previous model runs. When coupled with notably stronger vertical shear, the setup appears favorable for organized severe storms across the Mid-Atlantic, potentially into southern New England Sunday afternoon and evening.

### Day 5/Monday

The models suggest the Sunday/central Plains short-wave trough will progress through the mid MS into OH Valleys with an associated belt of enhanced mid-level flow stretching from the central Plains into Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, there is good model agreement that the primary synoptic front and associated warm sector will lie across TX and the Gulf Coast states, to the south of the stronger mid-level winds and forcing for ascent. Some severe-weather threat may develop along and south of the front; however, the marginal vertical shear is expected to limit the overall severe-weather threat.

Slightly stronger vertical shear is forecast across the central and southern High Plains, due to an easterly upslope regime in the low-levels. While the potential for more organized storms will exist in that region, severe-weather coverage may only be isolated.

### Day 6/Tuesday

The ensemble mean and deterministic models are suggestive that a mid-level disturbance will track from the central Plains into the lower OH and TN Valleys, contributing to overall amplification of the long-wave trough in place east of the Rockies. The primary surface front is expected to remain in place across the Gulf Coast states, to the immediate south of the stronger forcing for ascent and mid-level flow. While isolated occurrences of severe weather appear possible from the southern High Plains into Southeast, the potential for an organized severe-weather event remains in question.

Days 7-8/Wednesday and Thursday

The ensemble means indicate the progression of a strong mid-level jet streak into the northern and central Plains Wednesday with that feature moving through the OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic Thursday. At the surface, the ensemble member low positions indicate clustering across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley Wednesday, and across the Great Lakes into Ontario on Thursday. The rapid poleward return of a moist and unstable air mass is expected to occur ahead of the surface low and associated frontal system. As such, some severe weather appears possible across parts of the Midwest Wednesday, and perhaps OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic Thursday.

..Mead.. 06/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Thursday, June 18

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Sunday, June 14 15%
Day 5 Monday, June 15 predictability too low
Day 6 Tuesday, June 16 predictability too low
Day 7 Wednesday, June 17 predictability too low
Day 8 Thursday, June 18 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110852 SPC AC 110852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Sunday

The 00z models have trended toward a much stronger short-wave trough and associated mid-level jet, which will progress from the Great Lakes and OH Valley into the Northeast. Elsewhere, a short-wave trough is forecast to move from the northern Rockies into the central Plains. At the surface, a cold front attendant to the Northeast short-wave trough will move through that region with the trailing extension of the boundary pushing south through the OH and TN Valleys into the Gulf Coast states.

A much stronger low-level jet is now forecast ahead of the cold front across the Northeast, which will aid in greater air mass destabilization than indicated in previous model runs. When coupled with notably stronger vertical shear, the setup appears favorable for organized severe storms across the Mid-Atlantic, potentially into southern New England Sunday afternoon and evening.

### Day 5/Monday

The models suggest the Sunday/central Plains short-wave trough will progress through the mid MS into OH Valleys with an associated belt of enhanced mid-level flow stretching from the central Plains into Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, there is good model agreement that the primary synoptic front and associated warm sector will lie across TX and the Gulf Coast states, to the south of the stronger mid-level winds and forcing for ascent. Some severe-weather threat may develop along and south of the front; however, the marginal vertical shear is expected to limit the overall severe-weather threat.

Slightly stronger vertical shear is forecast across the central and southern High Plains, due to an easterly upslope regime in the low-levels. While the potential for more organized storms will exist in that region, severe-weather coverage may only be isolated.

### Day 6/Tuesday

The ensemble mean and deterministic models are suggestive that a mid-level disturbance will track from the central Plains into the lower OH and TN Valleys, contributing to overall amplification of the long-wave trough in place east of the Rockies. The primary surface front is expected to remain in place across the Gulf Coast states, to the immediate south of the stronger forcing for ascent and mid-level flow. While isolated occurrences of severe weather appear possible from the southern High Plains into Southeast, the potential for an organized severe-weather event remains in question.

Days 7-8/Wednesday and Thursday

The ensemble means indicate the progression of a strong mid-level jet streak into the northern and central Plains Wednesday with that feature moving through the OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic Thursday. At the surface, the ensemble member low positions indicate clustering across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley Wednesday, and across the Great Lakes into Ontario on Thursday. The rapid poleward return of a moist and unstable air mass is expected to occur ahead of the surface low and associated frontal system. As such, some severe weather appears possible across parts of the Midwest Wednesday, and perhaps OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic Thursday.

..Mead.. 06/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

National Risk Overview

Thursday, June 11
TORNADO: 10%
HAIL: 15%
WIND: 45%
Friday, June 12
TORNADO: low
HAIL: 5%
WIND: 30%
Saturday, June 13
ANY SEVERE: 15%
Sunday, June 14
ANY SEVERE: 15%
Monday, June 15
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, June 16
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, June 17
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, June 18
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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