Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, October 15
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and a tornado or two are possible today across parts of the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 151655
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 2 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026
Valid 151630Z - 161200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and a tornado or two are possible today across parts of the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.
Midwest/Ohio Valley
Extreme/record-caliber seasonal moisture content exists over the region with warm-sector prevalent 2+ inch Precipitable Water values and surface dewpoints in excess of 70F. A surface wave over the middle part of Missouri late this morning should gradually/modestly deepen as it progresses east-northeastward near a northward-shifting warm front, although the front/warm sector are a bit muddled by ongoing convection across southern portions of Missouri and Illinois.
Current split flow over the Great Plains will quickly resolve, with a central Plains shortwave trough/speed max phasing with a broader-scale upper trough over the Upper Midwest through tonight. The net result will be a strengthening of deep-layer winds along/north of the warm sector that will shift poleward, although to what exact degree/spatial extent is uncertain given some of the ongoing convection.
At least some scattering of warm-sector cloud cover, diurnal heating and the increasing moisture content with northward extent will allow for modest cool season destabilization, with SBCAPE potentially exceeding 1000 J/kg across the lower Wabash Valley and southern/downstate portions of Illinois and Indiana. This should allow for re-development/intensification of storms this afternoon, although the exact magnitude of today’s severe risk is still a bit uncertain and contingent on surface heating/destabilization. But this scenario could include a few supercells, with the possibility of a semi-focused severe/some tornado risk near the warm front, which may be augmented by some of the prior convection, and ahead of the surface low. Supercells aside, some semi-organized clusters capable of wind damage should evolve within the high-moisture content environment and 40+ kt effective shear. Overall storm intensity is likely to wane within a couple hours of sunset, generally by late evening.
North/West Texas
An outflow-augmented cold front will continue to spread southeastward. The tendency for post-frontal convection should remain the dominant scenario with boundary-parallel deep-layer flow contributing to a more anafrontal character. Gradual diurnal heating could support some intensification of storms along the leading edge of the composite boundary this afternoon. As such, some stronger wind gusts are plausible, but this scenario and related potential for organized severe storms is currently expected to remain limited.
..Guyer/Marsh.. 10/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Friday, October 16
Outlook Summary
Scattered damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado may accompany a squall line that is expected across the Mid-Atlantic into New England tomorrow (Friday).
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 30%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 151725
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
### SUMMARY
Scattered damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado may accompany a squall line that is expected across the Mid-Atlantic into New England tomorrow (Friday).
Synopsis
A pronounced, positively tilted upper trough will continue to amplify as it rapidly approaches the East Coast tomorrow (Friday). Accompanying this upper trough will be a strong surface cyclone, which will track from the eastern Great Lakes to northern New England during the day. A marginally unstable airmass will advect ahead of a surface trough attendant from the cyclone, supporting deep-moist convective potential amid an environment characterized by strong forcing and vertical wind shear. As such, severe storms will be possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England late tomorrow morning into the evening hours.
Mid-Atlantic into southern New England
As the upper trough amplifies and the surface cyclone deepens over the northern Appalachians, low-level convergence along the attendant surface trough will increase into the morning hours, resulting in the development of low-topped convection that will quickly evolve into a squall line across western NY/PA. The northward advection of mid 60s F surface dewpoints beneath 6 C/km mid-level lapse rates will result in 500 J/kg MLCAPE on a widespread basis ahead of the line, with locally higher values approaching 1000 J/kg in spots. Some guidance members suggest that surface airmass recovery may be brief ahead of the squall line given the potential for widespread antecedent cloud cover. Still, strong tropospheric wind fields will accompany the squall line, with forecast soundings showing 50+ kt flow as low as 800-700 mb, with 35-40 kt flow contained within the boundary layer, just above the surface.
Regardless of the degree of destabilization that precedes the squall line, downward momentum transport of the stronger flow aloft within the squall line should support strong to occasionally severe surface gusts, mostly in the 35-55 kt range. Scattered instances of tree/wire damage are expected, starting from around western PA during the late morning hours, to the East Coast around early evening.
..Squitieri.. 10/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Saturday, October 17
Outlook Summary
No severe weather is expected Saturday or Saturday night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 150709
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
No severe weather is expected Saturday or Saturday night.
Discussion
An initial, full-latitude trough over the eastern CONUS is forecast to fracture into a more progressive polar air stream over the Northeast and a cut-off low along the Carolina Coast. At the surface, a cold front will move through the FL Peninsula, while an expansive ridge of high pressure stretches from the southern Plains into the Northeast.
A moist and moderately unstable air mass is expected to develop ahead of the front in FL by afternoon, contributing to diurnally enhanced thunderstorm development. While locally gusty winds are possible with the strongest storms, poor midlevel lapse rates and displacement of stronger vertical shear to the north of the surface warm sector are expected to limit severe weather potential.
Elsewhere, an upper low will approach the southern CA and northern Baja Coasts with a few elevated thunderstorms possible over the lower Colorado Valley within a zone of midlevel moistening and ascent downstream from that feature.
..Mead.. 10/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Sunday, October 18
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, October 18 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, October 19 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, October 20 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, October 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, October 22 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150818 SPC AC 150818
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
The primary upper-air feature of interest is an amplifying trough, which will evolve into a closed low along the West Coast Monday night into Tuesday/Days 5 and 6. Thereafter, 00Z deterministic and ensemble guidance indicates the midlevel system will shift east into the Great Basin and lower Colorado Valley with an associated belt of stronger southwesterly flow overspreading the southern Rockies and potentially central and southern High Plains by Thursday/Day 8. In the low levels, surface ridging is forecast to persist from the Northeast into the southern Plains into at least early next week, which will slow the return of moisture from off the Gulf into the Great Plains.
Days 4 through 6/Sunday through Tuesday
A few strong thunderstorms appear possible across portions of the lower Colorado Valley into the Four Corners and southern Rockies, especially on Tuesday. However, instability currently appears too weak to support a severe weather threat.
### Days 7 and 8/Wednesday through Thursday
While particular details regarding location and intensity of the midlevel trough/low remain uncertain, there is some ensemble signal that a favorable overlap of stronger vertical shear and at least modest instability could materialize over the southern Rockies, where a few strong to severe storms may occur. At least an isolated severe weather threat could spread from the southern Rockies into the adjacent High Plains by Thursday on the condition that sufficient low-level moistening/destabilization occurs along and to the east of a surface lee trough.
..Mead.. 10/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, October 19
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, October 18 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, October 19 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, October 20 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, October 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, October 22 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150818 SPC AC 150818
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
The primary upper-air feature of interest is an amplifying trough, which will evolve into a closed low along the West Coast Monday night into Tuesday/Days 5 and 6. Thereafter, 00Z deterministic and ensemble guidance indicates the midlevel system will shift east into the Great Basin and lower Colorado Valley with an associated belt of stronger southwesterly flow overspreading the southern Rockies and potentially central and southern High Plains by Thursday/Day 8. In the low levels, surface ridging is forecast to persist from the Northeast into the southern Plains into at least early next week, which will slow the return of moisture from off the Gulf into the Great Plains.
Days 4 through 6/Sunday through Tuesday
A few strong thunderstorms appear possible across portions of the lower Colorado Valley into the Four Corners and southern Rockies, especially on Tuesday. However, instability currently appears too weak to support a severe weather threat.
### Days 7 and 8/Wednesday through Thursday
While particular details regarding location and intensity of the midlevel trough/low remain uncertain, there is some ensemble signal that a favorable overlap of stronger vertical shear and at least modest instability could materialize over the southern Rockies, where a few strong to severe storms may occur. At least an isolated severe weather threat could spread from the southern Rockies into the adjacent High Plains by Thursday on the condition that sufficient low-level moistening/destabilization occurs along and to the east of a surface lee trough.
..Mead.. 10/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, October 20
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, October 18 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, October 19 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, October 20 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, October 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, October 22 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150818 SPC AC 150818
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
The primary upper-air feature of interest is an amplifying trough, which will evolve into a closed low along the West Coast Monday night into Tuesday/Days 5 and 6. Thereafter, 00Z deterministic and ensemble guidance indicates the midlevel system will shift east into the Great Basin and lower Colorado Valley with an associated belt of stronger southwesterly flow overspreading the southern Rockies and potentially central and southern High Plains by Thursday/Day 8. In the low levels, surface ridging is forecast to persist from the Northeast into the southern Plains into at least early next week, which will slow the return of moisture from off the Gulf into the Great Plains.
Days 4 through 6/Sunday through Tuesday
A few strong thunderstorms appear possible across portions of the lower Colorado Valley into the Four Corners and southern Rockies, especially on Tuesday. However, instability currently appears too weak to support a severe weather threat.
### Days 7 and 8/Wednesday through Thursday
While particular details regarding location and intensity of the midlevel trough/low remain uncertain, there is some ensemble signal that a favorable overlap of stronger vertical shear and at least modest instability could materialize over the southern Rockies, where a few strong to severe storms may occur. At least an isolated severe weather threat could spread from the southern Rockies into the adjacent High Plains by Thursday on the condition that sufficient low-level moistening/destabilization occurs along and to the east of a surface lee trough.
..Mead.. 10/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, October 21
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, October 18 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, October 19 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, October 20 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, October 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, October 22 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150818 SPC AC 150818
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
The primary upper-air feature of interest is an amplifying trough, which will evolve into a closed low along the West Coast Monday night into Tuesday/Days 5 and 6. Thereafter, 00Z deterministic and ensemble guidance indicates the midlevel system will shift east into the Great Basin and lower Colorado Valley with an associated belt of stronger southwesterly flow overspreading the southern Rockies and potentially central and southern High Plains by Thursday/Day 8. In the low levels, surface ridging is forecast to persist from the Northeast into the southern Plains into at least early next week, which will slow the return of moisture from off the Gulf into the Great Plains.
Days 4 through 6/Sunday through Tuesday
A few strong thunderstorms appear possible across portions of the lower Colorado Valley into the Four Corners and southern Rockies, especially on Tuesday. However, instability currently appears too weak to support a severe weather threat.
### Days 7 and 8/Wednesday through Thursday
While particular details regarding location and intensity of the midlevel trough/low remain uncertain, there is some ensemble signal that a favorable overlap of stronger vertical shear and at least modest instability could materialize over the southern Rockies, where a few strong to severe storms may occur. At least an isolated severe weather threat could spread from the southern Rockies into the adjacent High Plains by Thursday on the condition that sufficient low-level moistening/destabilization occurs along and to the east of a surface lee trough.
..Mead.. 10/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, October 22
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, October 18 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, October 19 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, October 20 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, October 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, October 22 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150818 SPC AC 150818
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
The primary upper-air feature of interest is an amplifying trough, which will evolve into a closed low along the West Coast Monday night into Tuesday/Days 5 and 6. Thereafter, 00Z deterministic and ensemble guidance indicates the midlevel system will shift east into the Great Basin and lower Colorado Valley with an associated belt of stronger southwesterly flow overspreading the southern Rockies and potentially central and southern High Plains by Thursday/Day 8. In the low levels, surface ridging is forecast to persist from the Northeast into the southern Plains into at least early next week, which will slow the return of moisture from off the Gulf into the Great Plains.
Days 4 through 6/Sunday through Tuesday
A few strong thunderstorms appear possible across portions of the lower Colorado Valley into the Four Corners and southern Rockies, especially on Tuesday. However, instability currently appears too weak to support a severe weather threat.
### Days 7 and 8/Wednesday through Thursday
While particular details regarding location and intensity of the midlevel trough/low remain uncertain, there is some ensemble signal that a favorable overlap of stronger vertical shear and at least modest instability could materialize over the southern Rockies, where a few strong to severe storms may occur. At least an isolated severe weather threat could spread from the southern Rockies into the adjacent High Plains by Thursday on the condition that sufficient low-level moistening/destabilization occurs along and to the east of a surface lee trough.
..Mead.. 10/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, October 15
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 15%
- Friday, October 16
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 30%
- Saturday, October 17
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Sunday, October 18
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, October 19
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, October 20
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, October 21
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, October 22
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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