Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, August 22
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging winds should occur this afternoon across parts of the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians, with isolated damaging winds possible across the lower Mississippi Valley to the southern Plains/Ozarks. Isolated hail and damaging winds may also occur over parts of the central Plains and northern Rockies into the Northwest.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 221202
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0702 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026
Valid 221300Z - 231200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging winds should occur this afternoon across parts of the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians, with isolated damaging winds possible across the lower Mississippi Valley to the southern Plains/Ozarks. Isolated hail and damaging winds may also occur over parts of the central Plains and northern Rockies into the Northwest.
Ohio Valley into the Central Appalachians and Tennessee/Lower Mississippi Valleys
Upper troughing over Ontario and the Great Lakes will advance slowly eastward today across the OH Valley/Midwest in tandem with a weak surface cold front. Latest visible satellite imagery this morning shows mostly clear skies present across the upper OH Valley vicinity. While low-level moisture will remain fairly modest (surface dewpoints generally in the 60s) and lapse rates aloft will be near moist adiabatic, it still appears likely that around 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE will develop ahead of the front by early afternoon. A gradual increase in thunderstorm coverage and intensity is expected, with 20-30 kt of effective bulk shear fostering enough updraft organization for multicell clusters capable of producing scattered damaging winds. These thunderstorms will spread eastward from the upper OH Valley into the central Appalachians this afternoon and evening before eventually weakening with eastward extent. Isolated hail may occur with the stronger cores that develop, but the poor mid-level lapse rates present may limit this threat to some extent. There also appears to be some chance for strong to locally severe thunderstorms to develop along/east of the Blue Ridge Mountains this afternoon. If this occurs, then occasional damaging winds would be the main threat with this activity.
There may be less thunderstorm coverage with southwestward extent along/ahead of the front into the TN Valley/Mid-South, as large-scale ascent will be weaker across these regions. Still, any convection which can develop and be sustained will exist in a favorable environment for damaging winds, with moderate to strong instability and sufficient deep-layer shear present to support multicell clusters.
Southern/Central Plains into the Ozarks
On the eastern periphery of upper ridging over the Southwest/Rockies, thunderstorms have developed early this morning across parts of the southern/central Plains. This convection is being aided by modest low-level warm/moist advection, and multiple weak mid-level disturbances moving through the northwesterly mid-level flow across the Plains. While substantial MLCIN is present, sufficient MUCAPE coupled with moderate to strong deep-layer shear should continue to support updraft organization. Isolated hail and strong to locally severe gusts may occur with the more robust cores, and severe probabilities have been adjusted to account for ongoing convection. Subsequent development of thunderstorms this afternoon will be dependent on how this morning's convection evolves, with some weakening possible as a modest low-level jet gradually lessens over the next several hours. Still, redevelopment is forecast this afternoon along/south of a weak front. Moderate to locally strong instability, very steep low-level lapse rates, and moderate northwesterly deep-layer shear should support some clustering/updraft organization. Occasional hail and severe gusts may occur as thunderstorms spread southward across the southern Plains/Ozarks this afternoon/evening.
A separate area of convection is forecast to develop this afternoon along the Front Range/Laramie Mountains in a weak post-frontal low-level upslope regime. While effective bulk shear should be somewhat weaker across this region, a narrow corridor of greater instability is forecast across the central High Plains. This may support loosely organized multicells and marginal supercell structures with an isolated severe hail/wind threat. This activity should spread slowly southeastward off the higher terrain before weakening this evening with the loss of daytime heating.
Great Basin/Northern Rockies into the Northwest
Upper ridging will remain prominent from the Southwest into the northern Rockies/High Plains today. On the western periphery of this ridging, an upper trough/low will move northward along/near the coast of the Pacific Northwest. Enhanced south-southwesterly mid-level flow will overspread parts of the Great Basin, northern Rockies, and Northwest through the period, with the strongest winds forecast over WA/OR. Low-level moisture remains fairly limited over most of these regions, with somewhat greater surface dewpoints present over parts of the Great Basin.
Diurnal heating should support modest destabilization and weak instability from the northern Great Basin into the interior Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Thunderstorms will develop this afternoon as the large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough/low overspreads these regions in tandem with orographic effects across the higher terrain. Where low-level lapse rates can become sufficiently steepened with a dry/well-mixed sub-cloud layer, isolated severe/damaging winds may occur. The overall severe threat should be limited by weak instability.
..Gleason/Broyles.. 08/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Sunday, August 23
Outlook Summary
Strong thunderstorm activity posing at least some risk for severe hail and wind appears possible across parts of the northern Rockies and Great Plains, and across parts of the eastern Great Lakes to the Northeast, Sunday through Sunday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 220557
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST…THE NORTHERN PLAINS…AND MONTANA.
### SUMMARY
Strong thunderstorm activity posing at least some risk for severe hail and wind appears possible across parts of the northern Rockies and Great Plains, and across parts of the eastern Great Lakes to the Northeast, Sunday through Sunday night.
Montana
A deamplifying mid-level shortwave trough will move from the Pacific Northwest into eastern British Columbia on Sunday. As this occurs, a lee cyclone across Montana will advect moisture northwestward into central Montana with some 60F dewpoints expected. Moderate mid-level flow along the southern periphery of this mid-level trough will overspread a weak to moderately unstable airmass across Montana. The majority of the forcing will be farther north across Canada, however, weak height falls and terrain driven circulations should be sufficient enough for storm development by mid-afternoon across central Montana. 30 to 35 knots of shear should be sufficient for storm organization including some supercell potential. In addition, strong heating will result in steep lapse rates and an environment supporting damaging winds.
Dakotas
Moderate to potentially strong instability is forecast across central South Dakota and vicinity on Sunday afternoon, southwest of a frontal zone. Persistent southwesterly 1km flow is expected for much of the day. Isentropic ascent within this zone will support the potential for thunderstorms for much of the day. Thunderstorm coverage/intensity may increase as a mid-level shortwave trough approaches the region during the afternoon. In addition, the low-level jet is expected to strengthen during the evening which will result in more widespread storm development. The environment, featuring moderate to strong instability and 35-45 kts of effective shear, within a zone of moderate forcing, may result in some strong storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts.
Eastern Great Lakes into the Northeast
A strong mid-level trough across the Great Lakes will become a closed upper low across southern Ontario on Sunday. An individual mid-level trough revolving around the primary trough will become negatively tilted as it pivots through the Northeast. A secondary mid-level shortwave trough will dig into the western portion of this trough and emerge around the base of the trough late Sunday evening. These features amid the deepening upper low will result in persistent ascent across the region where weak instability will also be present. Shear may be relatively weak (20 to 25 knots), which may limit overall storm organization. However, the cool temperatures aloft should be sufficient for isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts.
Arkansas and Vicinity
Most guidance shows a moderate low-level jet and isentropic ascent across eastern Oklahoma and into Arkansas late Sunday night and early Monday. Forecast soundings, other than the HiRes NAM, show relatively meager instability. Therefore, while thunderstorms are likely along this zone given the strong forcing, severe storms may struggle amid relatively weak instability. Therefore, no probabilities have been added at this time.
..Bentley.. 08/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Monday, August 24
Outlook Summary
Strong to severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are possible from the northern to central High Plains on Monday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 220651
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
### SUMMARY
Strong to severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are possible from the northern to central High Plains on Monday.
Central to the Northern Plains
The strong ridge which has been present for much of the last 3 weeks will continue across the southern Plains and the High Plains. However, the northern extent of this ridge will be flattened with a frontal zone extending from the northern Plains into the central High Plains. Moderate instability is forecast along this frontal zone where isolated to scattered storms are expected on Monday. The strongest shear is expected across North Dakota into Minnesota where a 40 knot jet streak will overspread the region. Isolated storms may form along the front in this region during the day, but the better signal for storms is during the evening when a mid-level shortwave trough approaches the region from southern Canada.
The greater diurnal storm coverage is anticipated in the Nebraska Panhandle and into southwest South Dakota. However, the weaker shear across this region may result in only marginally organized storms. Therefore, a few severe wind gusts are possible and thus the Marginal is warranted, but the relatively unorganized storm mode precludes higher severe weather probabilities at this time.
..Bentley.. 08/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Tuesday, August 25
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, August 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, August 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, August 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, August 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, August 29 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220742 SPC AC 220742
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
Overall, the long range pattern will feature a ridge centered over the southern High Plains which may shift slightly west through the period. Some severe weather may occur within the northwesterly flow pattern from the northern Plains to the Ohio Valley Tuesday/D4 to Thursday/D6, but confidence is not high enough for probabilities at this time. There is an emerging signal for a seasonably strong high pressure to build into the eastern CONUS and shunt most of the richer low-level moisture to the Gulf Coast states. If this occurs, a relative lull in severe weather potential would exist from the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast to the Upper Midwest into next weekend.
..Bentley.. 08/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, August 26
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, August 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, August 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, August 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, August 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, August 29 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220742 SPC AC 220742
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
Overall, the long range pattern will feature a ridge centered over the southern High Plains which may shift slightly west through the period. Some severe weather may occur within the northwesterly flow pattern from the northern Plains to the Ohio Valley Tuesday/D4 to Thursday/D6, but confidence is not high enough for probabilities at this time. There is an emerging signal for a seasonably strong high pressure to build into the eastern CONUS and shunt most of the richer low-level moisture to the Gulf Coast states. If this occurs, a relative lull in severe weather potential would exist from the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast to the Upper Midwest into next weekend.
..Bentley.. 08/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, August 27
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, August 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, August 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, August 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, August 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, August 29 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220742 SPC AC 220742
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
Overall, the long range pattern will feature a ridge centered over the southern High Plains which may shift slightly west through the period. Some severe weather may occur within the northwesterly flow pattern from the northern Plains to the Ohio Valley Tuesday/D4 to Thursday/D6, but confidence is not high enough for probabilities at this time. There is an emerging signal for a seasonably strong high pressure to build into the eastern CONUS and shunt most of the richer low-level moisture to the Gulf Coast states. If this occurs, a relative lull in severe weather potential would exist from the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast to the Upper Midwest into next weekend.
..Bentley.. 08/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, August 28
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, August 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, August 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, August 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, August 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, August 29 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220742 SPC AC 220742
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
Overall, the long range pattern will feature a ridge centered over the southern High Plains which may shift slightly west through the period. Some severe weather may occur within the northwesterly flow pattern from the northern Plains to the Ohio Valley Tuesday/D4 to Thursday/D6, but confidence is not high enough for probabilities at this time. There is an emerging signal for a seasonably strong high pressure to build into the eastern CONUS and shunt most of the richer low-level moisture to the Gulf Coast states. If this occurs, a relative lull in severe weather potential would exist from the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast to the Upper Midwest into next weekend.
..Bentley.. 08/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, August 29
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, August 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, August 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, August 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, August 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, August 29 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220742 SPC AC 220742
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
Overall, the long range pattern will feature a ridge centered over the southern High Plains which may shift slightly west through the period. Some severe weather may occur within the northwesterly flow pattern from the northern Plains to the Ohio Valley Tuesday/D4 to Thursday/D6, but confidence is not high enough for probabilities at this time. There is an emerging signal for a seasonably strong high pressure to build into the eastern CONUS and shunt most of the richer low-level moisture to the Gulf Coast states. If this occurs, a relative lull in severe weather potential would exist from the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast to the Upper Midwest into next weekend.
..Bentley.. 08/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, August 22
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Sunday, August 23
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Monday, August 24
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Tuesday, August 25
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, August 26
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, August 27
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, August 28
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, August 29
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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