Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Saturday, July 11

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms capable of producing scattered severe/damaging winds will be possible today from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. Severe wind gusts may also occur across portions of southern Arizona.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 111232

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Valid 111300Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST…AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms capable of producing scattered severe/damaging winds will be possible today from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. Severe wind gusts may also occur across portions of southern Arizona.

Southern Plains/Ozarks into the Tennessee Valley/Southeast and Mid-Atlantic

Weak mid-level troughing with multiple embedded and convectively enhanced vorticity maxima will advance slowly eastward today from the mid MS Valley into the lower OH Valley/Midwest and TN Valley. Ongoing thunderstorms across these regions this morning are being aided by warm/moist advection from a modest west-southwesterly low-level jet. Current expectations are for moderate instability to develop by this afternoon along/south of a surface boundary that will remain aligned generally southwest-northeast from parts of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley/TN Valley and Southeast. Multiple thunderstorm clusters will likely form or persist later today in this favorable thermodynamic regime. With modest westerly mid-level flow present, east-southeastward propagation of consolidated cold pools/outflow from these clusters will likely pose a threat for scattered severe/damaging winds over a broad region as low-level lapse rates steepen with filtered daytime heating.

The Slight Risk has been adjusted for both the influence of ongoing morning convection and the potential for multiple clusters to spread east-southeastward along a differential heating zone/instability gradient across the Southeast and to the Atlantic Coast through early evening. Isolated damaging winds may also occur farther north along/near a weak synoptic front, but less instability is forecast with northward extent into the OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Farther west across parts of the southern Plains into the Ozarks, at least isolated thunderstorms should develop along/south of the front this afternoon, even though large-scale ascent will remain weaker across these regions due to closer proximity to prominent mid-level ridging across the Rockies. This activity will move slowly east-southeastward while posing a threat for both severe winds and hail, as moderate to strong instability and modest deep-layer shear support loosely organized multicells.

Southern Arizona

Mid/upper-level ridging will build further over the Rockies and Southwest today, with weak easterly mid-level flow present over parts of AZ. Daytime heating of a seasonably moist low-level airmass (surface dewpoints in the 50s to low 60s across southeast AZ) will support weak to locally moderate instability as the boundary layer becomes very deeply mixed. Thunderstorms that initially develop across the higher terrain should spread west-southwestward into the lower desert elevations through the afternoon/evening, with severe wind gusts possible given ample DCAPE and inverted-v type soundings. Isolated hail may also occur with the stronger cores.

..Gleason/Thornton.. 07/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

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Outlook for Sunday, July 12

Outlook Summary

Scattered strong-to-severe thunderstorms capable of producing wind damage will be possible across much of the Southeast on Sunday, with the greatest potential across South Carolina. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of Arizona late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 110600

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST GEORGIA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA

### SUMMARY

Scattered strong-to-severe thunderstorms capable of producing wind damage will be possible across much of the Southeast on Sunday, with the greatest potential across South Carolina. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of Arizona late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.

Synopsis

The center of an expansive mid-level ridge will build northeast from the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains on Sunday, encompassing much of the contiguous US. A weak, positively-tilted mid-level trough will slowly move southeast from the Ohio Valley into the Tennessee Valley.

At the surface, a weak low will meander southeast underneath the aforementioned mid-level trough. At the start of the forecast period, a convectively augmented boundary will arc from this low southwest into Arkansas before turning northwestward and extending into south-central/south-west Kansas. This boundary will push south through the period and serve as a focus for additional thunderstorm development Sunday afternoon.

### Much of South Carolina into East Georgia

Ahead of the meandering surface low, a very warm and moist airmass will once again be in place as surface temperatures warm into the 80Fs and 90Fs in the presence of surface dewpoint temperatures in the 60Fs and low 70Fs. The result will be around 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE within a mostly uncapped environment. Scattered thunderstorms should develop during the afternoon as convective temperatures are breached. Weak mid-level flow (on the order of 15-20 knots) will favor single cells and multicell clusters. Relatively steep low-level lapse rates beneath the LCL and high precipitable water values will support downbursts/outflow winds capable of damage. Given the cooler mid-level temperatures associated with the mid-level trough, a few marginally severe hail reports may also occur.

### Southern High Plains into the Southeast

To the south of the previously mentioned surface boundary, a warm/hot moist airmass will be in place as temperatures warm into the 90Fs to near 100F with dewpoints in the 60Fs and 70Fs. This will result in MUCAPE on the order of 2000 to perhaps 3000 J/kg. Strong diurnal heating coupled with weak convergence along the surface boundary should result in scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon. These storms will be capable of producing strong-to-marginally severe convective outflow winds.

### Arizona

Steep mid-level lapse rates and ample mid-level moisture will support scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon. This region will be to the south of the strong CONUS-wide ridge with a belt of enhanced easterlies overhead. This should allow thunderstorms that develop across the higher terrain of Arizona to move west into the lower desert. A deeply mixed boundary layer will allow for strong outflow winds to develop as convection spreads west into southern and central Arizona.

### Upper Great Lakes

This region will be glanced by large-scale ascent associated with a strengthening mid-level jet across central Canada. Surface temperatures warming into the upper 80Fs and low 90Fs with dewpoints temperatures in the mid 60Fs to perhaps 70Fs will result in strong instability during the afternoon. Large-scale ascent will be modest at best, but a few thunderstorms are expected to develop, perhaps along a 700-millibar front/boundary, during the afternoon. Steep low-level and mid-level lapse rates and effective-layer shear on the order of 30-35 knots will support a few strong-to-severe wind gusts and perhaps marginally severe hail. Forecast hodographs have modest curvature in the low-levels that a tornado or two may be possible with any supercell that can sustain itself and move more southerly, realizing the totality of the low-level curvature.

..Marsh.. 07/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Monday, July 13

Outlook Summary

A few strong-to-severe storms will be possible from northern Florida into much of South Carolina.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 110728

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO MUCH OF SOUTH CAROLINA

### SUMMARY

A few strong-to-severe storms will be possible from northern Florida into much of South Carolina.

Synopsis

The persistent CONUS-wide mid-level ridge centered across the north-central US will begin to flatten and elongate on Monday as a strong mid-level trough moves across central Canada. As the mid-level ridge flattens/elongates it will place much of the southern US in easterly mid-level flow. This easterly mid-level flow will cause a weak mid-level trough across the Tennessee Valley to retrograde. This high-over-low pattern will feature a belt of enhanced easterlies stretching from the lower Great Lakes west into the Central Plains.

At the surface, a weak surface low over the southern Appalachians will redevelop westward toward Alabama during the afternoon. The combination of this surface low with a surface ridge centered across the Mid-Mississippi Valley will result in northerly low-level flow across much of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and western parts of the Southeast.

### Northern Florida into much of South Carolina

As the surface low redevelops across Alabama on Monday, this area will experience southwesterly surface flow that will maintain a warm, moist airmass. Residual cooler mid-level temperatures (as compared to surrounding areas) associated with the weak mid-level trough and strong diurnal heating of this moist airmass will result in afternoon thunderstorms. Deep-layer shear remains weak across the area which should limit overall thunderstorm organization, favoring instead single cells and a few multicell clusters. A few heavy, water-loaded downdrafts will be capable of producing sporadic wind damage.

..Marsh.. 07/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, July 14

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110900 SPC AC 110900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Ensemble guidance continues to indicate that the CONUS-wide mid-level ridge centered over the north-central United States will build westward during the upcoming week in response to a series of mid-level troughs moving through central Canada. These troughs will help to carve out a seasonably strong trough across eastern Canada. By the end of the week, the US ridge will be centered over the Rockies with the eastern Canada trough centered over Quebec. The result will be a strong mid-level height gradient (and strong mid-level flow) stretching from the Upper Great Lakes southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and encompassing New England.

### Tuesday/Day 4 – New England

Multiple ensemble systems continue to support a favorable severe weather environment being in place across New England on Tuesday. Strong diurnal heating and southwesterly surface flow should allow surface temperatures to warm into the mid-80Fs to perhaps low-90Fs by late afternoon ahead of a seasonably strong surface cold front. Ahead of the cold front, surface dewpoint temperatures should rise into the 60Fs to perhaps 70Fs, leading to MUCAPE between 1000-2000 J/kg. Current thinking is that thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the surface cold front during the afternoon across Quebec and move into New England during the late afternoon before dissipating overnight. Strong vertical shear in excess of 50 knots will combine with strong instability to support severe thunderstorms. The most probable scenario is for one or more broken lines of storms to move across the region, with perhaps a few embedded supercells. All severe hazards seem possible at this time.

### Friday/Day 7 and Beyond – Upper Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic

Strong northwest flow will be established between the previously described western US ridge and eastern Canadian trough. Rich boundary layer moisture is expected to be present to the south of a residual cold front that will be draped somewhere from the Great Lakes southeast into the Mid-Atlantic/Southern New England. Strong diurnal heating each afternoon will support scattered thunderstorm development capable of producing damaging outflows. Severe probabilities were introduced for Day 7 with this outlook given increasing confidence in thunderstorms developing within surface troughing east of the Appalachians. The exact location of these highlights will likely be refined with subsequent outlooks.

Additionally, the overall large-scale pattern seems conducive for one or more shortwave troughs to move through the broader northwesterly flow across this region. Given the (seasonably) strongly unstable and sheared environment, one or more southeastward moving MCSs may be possible during the Day 7 - Day 10 period. Ensemble guidance varies significantly as to the timing and location of these potential short-wave troughs, but the overall pattern would suggest additional severe weather potential at the end of the forecast period and in the days that follow.

..Marsh.. 07/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, July 15

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110900 SPC AC 110900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Ensemble guidance continues to indicate that the CONUS-wide mid-level ridge centered over the north-central United States will build westward during the upcoming week in response to a series of mid-level troughs moving through central Canada. These troughs will help to carve out a seasonably strong trough across eastern Canada. By the end of the week, the US ridge will be centered over the Rockies with the eastern Canada trough centered over Quebec. The result will be a strong mid-level height gradient (and strong mid-level flow) stretching from the Upper Great Lakes southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and encompassing New England.

### Tuesday/Day 4 – New England

Multiple ensemble systems continue to support a favorable severe weather environment being in place across New England on Tuesday. Strong diurnal heating and southwesterly surface flow should allow surface temperatures to warm into the mid-80Fs to perhaps low-90Fs by late afternoon ahead of a seasonably strong surface cold front. Ahead of the cold front, surface dewpoint temperatures should rise into the 60Fs to perhaps 70Fs, leading to MUCAPE between 1000-2000 J/kg. Current thinking is that thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the surface cold front during the afternoon across Quebec and move into New England during the late afternoon before dissipating overnight. Strong vertical shear in excess of 50 knots will combine with strong instability to support severe thunderstorms. The most probable scenario is for one or more broken lines of storms to move across the region, with perhaps a few embedded supercells. All severe hazards seem possible at this time.

### Friday/Day 7 and Beyond – Upper Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic

Strong northwest flow will be established between the previously described western US ridge and eastern Canadian trough. Rich boundary layer moisture is expected to be present to the south of a residual cold front that will be draped somewhere from the Great Lakes southeast into the Mid-Atlantic/Southern New England. Strong diurnal heating each afternoon will support scattered thunderstorm development capable of producing damaging outflows. Severe probabilities were introduced for Day 7 with this outlook given increasing confidence in thunderstorms developing within surface troughing east of the Appalachians. The exact location of these highlights will likely be refined with subsequent outlooks.

Additionally, the overall large-scale pattern seems conducive for one or more shortwave troughs to move through the broader northwesterly flow across this region. Given the (seasonably) strongly unstable and sheared environment, one or more southeastward moving MCSs may be possible during the Day 7 - Day 10 period. Ensemble guidance varies significantly as to the timing and location of these potential short-wave troughs, but the overall pattern would suggest additional severe weather potential at the end of the forecast period and in the days that follow.

..Marsh.. 07/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Thursday, July 16

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110900 SPC AC 110900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Ensemble guidance continues to indicate that the CONUS-wide mid-level ridge centered over the north-central United States will build westward during the upcoming week in response to a series of mid-level troughs moving through central Canada. These troughs will help to carve out a seasonably strong trough across eastern Canada. By the end of the week, the US ridge will be centered over the Rockies with the eastern Canada trough centered over Quebec. The result will be a strong mid-level height gradient (and strong mid-level flow) stretching from the Upper Great Lakes southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and encompassing New England.

### Tuesday/Day 4 – New England

Multiple ensemble systems continue to support a favorable severe weather environment being in place across New England on Tuesday. Strong diurnal heating and southwesterly surface flow should allow surface temperatures to warm into the mid-80Fs to perhaps low-90Fs by late afternoon ahead of a seasonably strong surface cold front. Ahead of the cold front, surface dewpoint temperatures should rise into the 60Fs to perhaps 70Fs, leading to MUCAPE between 1000-2000 J/kg. Current thinking is that thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the surface cold front during the afternoon across Quebec and move into New England during the late afternoon before dissipating overnight. Strong vertical shear in excess of 50 knots will combine with strong instability to support severe thunderstorms. The most probable scenario is for one or more broken lines of storms to move across the region, with perhaps a few embedded supercells. All severe hazards seem possible at this time.

### Friday/Day 7 and Beyond – Upper Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic

Strong northwest flow will be established between the previously described western US ridge and eastern Canadian trough. Rich boundary layer moisture is expected to be present to the south of a residual cold front that will be draped somewhere from the Great Lakes southeast into the Mid-Atlantic/Southern New England. Strong diurnal heating each afternoon will support scattered thunderstorm development capable of producing damaging outflows. Severe probabilities were introduced for Day 7 with this outlook given increasing confidence in thunderstorms developing within surface troughing east of the Appalachians. The exact location of these highlights will likely be refined with subsequent outlooks.

Additionally, the overall large-scale pattern seems conducive for one or more shortwave troughs to move through the broader northwesterly flow across this region. Given the (seasonably) strongly unstable and sheared environment, one or more southeastward moving MCSs may be possible during the Day 7 - Day 10 period. Ensemble guidance varies significantly as to the timing and location of these potential short-wave troughs, but the overall pattern would suggest additional severe weather potential at the end of the forecast period and in the days that follow.

..Marsh.. 07/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Friday, July 17

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110900 SPC AC 110900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Ensemble guidance continues to indicate that the CONUS-wide mid-level ridge centered over the north-central United States will build westward during the upcoming week in response to a series of mid-level troughs moving through central Canada. These troughs will help to carve out a seasonably strong trough across eastern Canada. By the end of the week, the US ridge will be centered over the Rockies with the eastern Canada trough centered over Quebec. The result will be a strong mid-level height gradient (and strong mid-level flow) stretching from the Upper Great Lakes southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and encompassing New England.

### Tuesday/Day 4 – New England

Multiple ensemble systems continue to support a favorable severe weather environment being in place across New England on Tuesday. Strong diurnal heating and southwesterly surface flow should allow surface temperatures to warm into the mid-80Fs to perhaps low-90Fs by late afternoon ahead of a seasonably strong surface cold front. Ahead of the cold front, surface dewpoint temperatures should rise into the 60Fs to perhaps 70Fs, leading to MUCAPE between 1000-2000 J/kg. Current thinking is that thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the surface cold front during the afternoon across Quebec and move into New England during the late afternoon before dissipating overnight. Strong vertical shear in excess of 50 knots will combine with strong instability to support severe thunderstorms. The most probable scenario is for one or more broken lines of storms to move across the region, with perhaps a few embedded supercells. All severe hazards seem possible at this time.

### Friday/Day 7 and Beyond – Upper Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic

Strong northwest flow will be established between the previously described western US ridge and eastern Canadian trough. Rich boundary layer moisture is expected to be present to the south of a residual cold front that will be draped somewhere from the Great Lakes southeast into the Mid-Atlantic/Southern New England. Strong diurnal heating each afternoon will support scattered thunderstorm development capable of producing damaging outflows. Severe probabilities were introduced for Day 7 with this outlook given increasing confidence in thunderstorms developing within surface troughing east of the Appalachians. The exact location of these highlights will likely be refined with subsequent outlooks.

Additionally, the overall large-scale pattern seems conducive for one or more shortwave troughs to move through the broader northwesterly flow across this region. Given the (seasonably) strongly unstable and sheared environment, one or more southeastward moving MCSs may be possible during the Day 7 - Day 10 period. Ensemble guidance varies significantly as to the timing and location of these potential short-wave troughs, but the overall pattern would suggest additional severe weather potential at the end of the forecast period and in the days that follow.

..Marsh.. 07/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, July 18

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110900 SPC AC 110900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Ensemble guidance continues to indicate that the CONUS-wide mid-level ridge centered over the north-central United States will build westward during the upcoming week in response to a series of mid-level troughs moving through central Canada. These troughs will help to carve out a seasonably strong trough across eastern Canada. By the end of the week, the US ridge will be centered over the Rockies with the eastern Canada trough centered over Quebec. The result will be a strong mid-level height gradient (and strong mid-level flow) stretching from the Upper Great Lakes southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and encompassing New England.

### Tuesday/Day 4 – New England

Multiple ensemble systems continue to support a favorable severe weather environment being in place across New England on Tuesday. Strong diurnal heating and southwesterly surface flow should allow surface temperatures to warm into the mid-80Fs to perhaps low-90Fs by late afternoon ahead of a seasonably strong surface cold front. Ahead of the cold front, surface dewpoint temperatures should rise into the 60Fs to perhaps 70Fs, leading to MUCAPE between 1000-2000 J/kg. Current thinking is that thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the surface cold front during the afternoon across Quebec and move into New England during the late afternoon before dissipating overnight. Strong vertical shear in excess of 50 knots will combine with strong instability to support severe thunderstorms. The most probable scenario is for one or more broken lines of storms to move across the region, with perhaps a few embedded supercells. All severe hazards seem possible at this time.

### Friday/Day 7 and Beyond – Upper Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic

Strong northwest flow will be established between the previously described western US ridge and eastern Canadian trough. Rich boundary layer moisture is expected to be present to the south of a residual cold front that will be draped somewhere from the Great Lakes southeast into the Mid-Atlantic/Southern New England. Strong diurnal heating each afternoon will support scattered thunderstorm development capable of producing damaging outflows. Severe probabilities were introduced for Day 7 with this outlook given increasing confidence in thunderstorms developing within surface troughing east of the Appalachians. The exact location of these highlights will likely be refined with subsequent outlooks.

Additionally, the overall large-scale pattern seems conducive for one or more shortwave troughs to move through the broader northwesterly flow across this region. Given the (seasonably) strongly unstable and sheared environment, one or more southeastward moving MCSs may be possible during the Day 7 - Day 10 period. Ensemble guidance varies significantly as to the timing and location of these potential short-wave troughs, but the overall pattern would suggest additional severe weather potential at the end of the forecast period and in the days that follow.

..Marsh.. 07/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

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National Risk Overview

Saturday, July 11

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 15%

Sunday, July 12

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 15%

Monday, July 13

ANY SEVERE: 5%

Tuesday, July 14

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Wednesday, July 15

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Thursday, July 16

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, July 17

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Saturday, July 18

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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