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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Monday, June 15
Tuesday, June 16
Wednesday, June 17
Thursday, June 18
Friday, June 19
Saturday, June 20
Sunday, June 21
Monday, June 22

Outlook for Monday, June 15

Outlook Summary

Isolated large hail and severe thunderstorm winds may occur across the southern High Plains and Dakotas/Upper Midwest this afternoon and evening.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 5%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 151245

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Valid 151300Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST

### SUMMARY

Isolated large hail and severe thunderstorm winds may occur across the southern High Plains and Dakotas/Upper Midwest this afternoon and evening.

Southern High Plains

Beneath a northwesterly mid-level flow regime, lee side cyclogenesis today will influence additional northward moistening regionally, in the presence of low-level upslope trajectories with diurnal differential heating along the higher terrain including the Raton Mesa. Thunderstorms will develop/increase through mid/late afternoon across eastern New Mexico/far southeast Colorado, and could expand northeastward into southwest Kansas by evening. Modest buoyancy and 30-40 kt effective shear regionally will be supportive of a few supercells and sustained multicells, with potential consolidation into small organizing southeastward-moving clusters. Isolated instances of large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts may occur mainly late this afternoon through mid-evening.

Dakotas/Minnesota

Influenced by a clipper-type southeastward-digging shortwave trough, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop near a southeastward-moving pre-frontal trough/cold front this afternoon. While overall moisture/buoyancy will be limited, diurnally steepening lapse rates and strengthening mid-level west-northwesterly winds could yield some hail, and more so, strong/locally severe wind gusts this afternoon through around sunset.

Gulf Coast/Coastal Southeast

Some stronger pulse-type storms with gusty winds may occur this afternoon within a moist and moderately unstable environment to the south of a front. However, current expectations are for the severe-storm risk to remain highly localized with organized severe potential remaining limited overall.

..Guyer/Broyles.. 06/15/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, June 16

Outlook Summary

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening across parts of the Midwest into Lower Michigan.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 5%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 150448

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST

### SUMMARY

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening across parts of the Midwest into Lower Michigan.

Midwest

A midlevel shortwave trough will migrate east across the Midwest and Great Lakes on Tuesday. This will support a band of enhanced midlevel southwesterly flow across portions of WI/IL and into IN/Lower MI/OH during the afternoon and evening. Cooling aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and support MLCAPE up to 1500 J/kg. A weak cold front will move across the region during the afternoon/evening, and a band of convection will develop ahead of this feature. The main limiting factor precluding higher severe probabilities at this time is the expectation for meager boundary layer moisture. Surface dewpoints will generally be in the mid/upper 50s to near 60 F. Forecast soundings indicate sufficient deep layer shear for transient supercells and clusters with a risk for isolated hail and strong wind gusts.

Northern Oklahoma vicinity

Some forecast guidance suggests storms may develop across parts of northern OK during the late afternoon/early evening as midlevel flow increases within a strengthening warm advection regime. However, given a lack of large-scale ascent or focus for thunderstorm initiation other than strong daytime heating for an increasing moist airmass, confidence in sustained thunderstorm development is low. If storms can develop and be maintained, a risk for strong gusts and isolated hail will be possible. If confidence increases, low unconditional severe probabilities could be needed.

Eastern Montana/Western North Dakota

Strong storms are expected to develop within strong northwesterly deep layer flow over the Canadian Prairies Tuesday afternoon/evening. This activity will quickly develop southeast into MT/ND by late afternoon/evening. Strong heating amid meager low-level moisture will result in deep boundary layer mixing and weak instability. Locally gusty winds could accompany this activity.

..Leitman.. 06/15/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, June 17

Outlook Summary

An all-hazards severe thunderstorm episode is expected across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley into Indiana on Wednesday. Intense thunderstorms may produce swaths of damaging wind, as well as strong tornadoes and large hail.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 30%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 150727

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO INDIANA

### SUMMARY

An all-hazards severe thunderstorm episode is expected across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley into Indiana on Wednesday. Intense thunderstorms may produce swaths of damaging wind, as well as strong tornadoes and large hail.

Midwest

A midlevel shortwave trough is forecast to move from the northern Plains through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region on Wednesday. As this occurs, very strong deep-layer flow, especially for this time of year, will move across portions of the Mid-MS Valley into the Ohio Valley. A westerly 500 mb jet streak characterized by at least 70-80 kt will overspread parts of IA/MO/IL/IN in the afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, a 50+ kt southwesterly 850 mb low-level jet will spread across the same area during the afternoon/evening, just ahead of an east/southeast-advancing surface cold front. These strong wind fields, in conjunction with a surface low moving eastward across MN and the Upper Great Lakes, will aid in northward transport of rich boundary layer moisture (upper 60s to near 70 F surface dewpoints). Cooling aloft will steepen midlevel lapse rates, and moderate to strong destabilization is expected across the warm sector. Overall, this pattern should support numerous severe storms. While convective evolution remains uncertain, it is likely that at least some initial supercell risk will unfold during the afternoon and early evening (particularly across MO/IL), with potential for one or more bowing MCSs developing with time. This environment will support a risk for all severe hazards, and particularly swaths of damaging winds, and strong tornadoes.

Some uncertainty remains regarding the northward extent of the severe risk. Most medium range guidance indicates a lead shortwave impulse may move across IA/IL early in the day. Coupled with strong warm advection across the region, morning thunderstorm develop near/north of a warm front oriented from southeast MN into northeast IL at midday could suppress northward development of the warm front. Likewise, the southwest extent of the risk area into portions of KS/OK may be limited by capping concerns, and weaker forcing for ascent. Meanwhile, the southward extent of the severe risk across the Ohio Valley will be modulated by the stronger westerly component of mid/upper flow overnight and slow southward movement of the surface cold front. The risk area may shift some in coming days as surface boundaries and other mesoscale details become better resolved.

..Leitman.. 06/15/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Thursday, June 18

Outlook Images

any severe 15%

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Thursday, June 18 15%
Day 5 Friday, June 19 predictability too low
Day 6 Saturday, June 20 predictability too low
Day 7 Sunday, June 21 predictability too low
Day 8 Monday, June 22 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150757 SPC AC 150757

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Thursday – Mid-Atlantic/Northeast

Strong mid/upper level westerly flow will overspread portions of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast as a shortwave trough pivots across Quebec/Ontario and the Northeast U.S. on Thursday. Quite a bit of uncertainty exists regarding severe potential. Early day convection and cloud cover may limited destabilization from the Upper Ohio Valley into parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic and northeast. Additionally, stronger mid/upper level flow will become increasingly displaced to the north from richer boundary-layer moisture and stronger instability. Nevertheless, sufficient overlap of strong flow atop a moist airmass should occur from southern Ohio/eastern KY into the Mid-Atlantic, supporting a risk for severe thunderstorms on Thursday. This area will likely shift some in the coming days as mesoscale details become better resolved.

Days 5-8/Friday-Monday

A surface front will sag southward across the Gulf Coast states, with surface high pressure centered over the Mid-South vicinity on Friday. This should suppress the overall severe risk as richer boundary layer moisture remains confined to TX and the Gulf Coast. On Saturday, northward transport of Gulf moisture across the Plains is expected beneath a building upper ridge. By Sunday, an upper trough over the West may eject eastward into the Plains, resulting in some return of severe thunderstorm potential this weekend, though spread among forecast guidance is quite large and predictability is low late in the forecast period.

..Leitman.. 06/15/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Friday, June 19

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Thursday, June 18 15%
Day 5 Friday, June 19 predictability too low
Day 6 Saturday, June 20 predictability too low
Day 7 Sunday, June 21 predictability too low
Day 8 Monday, June 22 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150757 SPC AC 150757

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Thursday – Mid-Atlantic/Northeast

Strong mid/upper level westerly flow will overspread portions of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast as a shortwave trough pivots across Quebec/Ontario and the Northeast U.S. on Thursday. Quite a bit of uncertainty exists regarding severe potential. Early day convection and cloud cover may limited destabilization from the Upper Ohio Valley into parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic and northeast. Additionally, stronger mid/upper level flow will become increasingly displaced to the north from richer boundary-layer moisture and stronger instability. Nevertheless, sufficient overlap of strong flow atop a moist airmass should occur from southern Ohio/eastern KY into the Mid-Atlantic, supporting a risk for severe thunderstorms on Thursday. This area will likely shift some in the coming days as mesoscale details become better resolved.

Days 5-8/Friday-Monday

A surface front will sag southward across the Gulf Coast states, with surface high pressure centered over the Mid-South vicinity on Friday. This should suppress the overall severe risk as richer boundary layer moisture remains confined to TX and the Gulf Coast. On Saturday, northward transport of Gulf moisture across the Plains is expected beneath a building upper ridge. By Sunday, an upper trough over the West may eject eastward into the Plains, resulting in some return of severe thunderstorm potential this weekend, though spread among forecast guidance is quite large and predictability is low late in the forecast period.

..Leitman.. 06/15/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Saturday, June 20

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Thursday, June 18 15%
Day 5 Friday, June 19 predictability too low
Day 6 Saturday, June 20 predictability too low
Day 7 Sunday, June 21 predictability too low
Day 8 Monday, June 22 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150757 SPC AC 150757

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Thursday – Mid-Atlantic/Northeast

Strong mid/upper level westerly flow will overspread portions of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast as a shortwave trough pivots across Quebec/Ontario and the Northeast U.S. on Thursday. Quite a bit of uncertainty exists regarding severe potential. Early day convection and cloud cover may limited destabilization from the Upper Ohio Valley into parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic and northeast. Additionally, stronger mid/upper level flow will become increasingly displaced to the north from richer boundary-layer moisture and stronger instability. Nevertheless, sufficient overlap of strong flow atop a moist airmass should occur from southern Ohio/eastern KY into the Mid-Atlantic, supporting a risk for severe thunderstorms on Thursday. This area will likely shift some in the coming days as mesoscale details become better resolved.

Days 5-8/Friday-Monday

A surface front will sag southward across the Gulf Coast states, with surface high pressure centered over the Mid-South vicinity on Friday. This should suppress the overall severe risk as richer boundary layer moisture remains confined to TX and the Gulf Coast. On Saturday, northward transport of Gulf moisture across the Plains is expected beneath a building upper ridge. By Sunday, an upper trough over the West may eject eastward into the Plains, resulting in some return of severe thunderstorm potential this weekend, though spread among forecast guidance is quite large and predictability is low late in the forecast period.

..Leitman.. 06/15/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Sunday, June 21

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Thursday, June 18 15%
Day 5 Friday, June 19 predictability too low
Day 6 Saturday, June 20 predictability too low
Day 7 Sunday, June 21 predictability too low
Day 8 Monday, June 22 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150757 SPC AC 150757

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Thursday – Mid-Atlantic/Northeast

Strong mid/upper level westerly flow will overspread portions of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast as a shortwave trough pivots across Quebec/Ontario and the Northeast U.S. on Thursday. Quite a bit of uncertainty exists regarding severe potential. Early day convection and cloud cover may limited destabilization from the Upper Ohio Valley into parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic and northeast. Additionally, stronger mid/upper level flow will become increasingly displaced to the north from richer boundary-layer moisture and stronger instability. Nevertheless, sufficient overlap of strong flow atop a moist airmass should occur from southern Ohio/eastern KY into the Mid-Atlantic, supporting a risk for severe thunderstorms on Thursday. This area will likely shift some in the coming days as mesoscale details become better resolved.

Days 5-8/Friday-Monday

A surface front will sag southward across the Gulf Coast states, with surface high pressure centered over the Mid-South vicinity on Friday. This should suppress the overall severe risk as richer boundary layer moisture remains confined to TX and the Gulf Coast. On Saturday, northward transport of Gulf moisture across the Plains is expected beneath a building upper ridge. By Sunday, an upper trough over the West may eject eastward into the Plains, resulting in some return of severe thunderstorm potential this weekend, though spread among forecast guidance is quite large and predictability is low late in the forecast period.

..Leitman.. 06/15/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Monday, June 22

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Thursday, June 18 15%
Day 5 Friday, June 19 predictability too low
Day 6 Saturday, June 20 predictability too low
Day 7 Sunday, June 21 predictability too low
Day 8 Monday, June 22 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150757 SPC AC 150757

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Thursday – Mid-Atlantic/Northeast

Strong mid/upper level westerly flow will overspread portions of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast as a shortwave trough pivots across Quebec/Ontario and the Northeast U.S. on Thursday. Quite a bit of uncertainty exists regarding severe potential. Early day convection and cloud cover may limited destabilization from the Upper Ohio Valley into parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic and northeast. Additionally, stronger mid/upper level flow will become increasingly displaced to the north from richer boundary-layer moisture and stronger instability. Nevertheless, sufficient overlap of strong flow atop a moist airmass should occur from southern Ohio/eastern KY into the Mid-Atlantic, supporting a risk for severe thunderstorms on Thursday. This area will likely shift some in the coming days as mesoscale details become better resolved.

Days 5-8/Friday-Monday

A surface front will sag southward across the Gulf Coast states, with surface high pressure centered over the Mid-South vicinity on Friday. This should suppress the overall severe risk as richer boundary layer moisture remains confined to TX and the Gulf Coast. On Saturday, northward transport of Gulf moisture across the Plains is expected beneath a building upper ridge. By Sunday, an upper trough over the West may eject eastward into the Plains, resulting in some return of severe thunderstorm potential this weekend, though spread among forecast guidance is quite large and predictability is low late in the forecast period.

..Leitman.. 06/15/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

National Risk Overview

Monday, June 15
TORNADO: 2%
HAIL: 5%
WIND: 5%
Tuesday, June 16
TORNADO: 2%
HAIL: 5%
WIND: 5%
Wednesday, June 17
ANY SEVERE: 30%
Thursday, June 18
ANY SEVERE: 15%
Friday, June 19
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, June 20
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, June 21
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, June 22
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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