Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, July 19
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and wind gusts will remain possible mainly across the Dakotas into Minnesota.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 200105
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0805 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026
Valid 200100Z - 201200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS/UPPER MIDWEST
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and wind gusts will remain possible mainly across the Dakotas into Minnesota.
Northern Plains/Upper Midwest
Severe thunderstorms including some supercells will continue to focus this evening across the Dakotas, primarily across south-central/eastern North Dakota as well as north-central/eastern South Dakota, while also expanding into parts of Minnesota tonight. Bouts of large hail will remain possible along with severe-caliber wind gusts. This will be as storms progress east-southeastward with the primary moisture/instability axis, supported by an amplifying shortwave trough over Saskatchewan toward Manitoba, and the development of a modest-strength southwesterly low-level jet across the Upper Midwest tonight.
Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic States
A few strong/locally severe storms could still occur this evening, but overall storm intensifies are expected to continue to wane with the loss of daytime heating.
..Guyer.. 07/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Monday, July 20
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are probable across portions of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes vicinity on Monday. Swaths of damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes will all be possible. Isolated strong to damaging gusts may occur over parts of the Carolinas.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 30%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 191733
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM IOW ACROSS WISCONSIN AND INTO WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are probable across portions of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes vicinity on Monday. Swaths of damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes will all be possible. Isolated strong to damaging gusts may occur over parts of the Carolinas.
From IA across WI and into Upper MI
A substantial shortwave trough will dive southeastward across the upper MS Valley and toward the Great Lakes, with a broad area of 50-70 kt midlevel northwesterlies. Upper-level winds will be stronger, with over 100 kt at 300 mb from MN into WI. Cool temperatures aloft will also result in steep midlevel lapse rates over 7 C/km.
A few early day storms may produce hail over eastern MN into western WI as elevated instability will be strong and effective shear over 50 kt. This activity is expected to wane during the day, with new storms developing along the cold front as it pushes into western Upper MI, WI, and northern IA.
Initial storms should primarily be supercells given such strong shear. A corridor of tornado risk is evident east of the instability axis from IA across WI and into Upper MI, and effective SRH may exceed 300 m2/s2. Surface winds may veer with time, but any rightward movement off the hodograph may lead to a large increase of effective SRH for some of the larger supercells.
A conditional risk of a strong tornado also exists from far northeast IA across much of WI. Here, 0-3 km shear will be strong, with 50 kt winds at 700 mb. Several models indicate a VGP at or above 0.4.
With time, some of the cells may bow southeastward with corridors of significant wind damage and hail possible.
Southern VA into NC
Daytime heating, 70s F dewpoints and surface convergence near a weak low will aid storm formation from western into central NC after 20Z. MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg, PWAT over 2.00", and westerly flow aloft near 20 kt will lead to multicellular storm mode with locally damaging wind gusts.
..Jewell.. 07/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Tuesday, July 21
Outlook Summary
Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across a broad region from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Tuesday. All severe hazards are possible, but swaths of damaging wind gusts should be the primary severe risk Tuesday afternoon into the nighttime hours.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 45%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 191934
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF KENTUCKY NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
### SUMMARY
Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across a broad region from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Tuesday. All severe hazards are possible, but swaths of damaging wind gusts should be the primary severe risk Tuesday afternoon into the nighttime hours.
OH Valley into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast
Severe storms will be likely over a large area Tuesday, from parts of the Midwest and Ohio valley extending across the Mid Atlantic as increasing winds aloft overspread a large area of low-level moisture.
A mean upper trough will remain over much of region, with various waves rotating around. A leading wave will aid storm development during the day from eastern VA northward into southwest New England, well ahead of the main cold front to the west. Southwest flow at 850 mb of 30-40 kt will support northward moisture advection as winds aloft increase, and storms should form by early to mid afternoon within a pre-frontal trough. Veering winds with height should support scattered supercells or storm clusters, and damaging winds or isolated tornadoes may occur.
Meanwhile, an area of greater severe potential will develop immediately near and ahead of a cold front which should extend roughly from northern OH/IN into southern IL during the afternoon. This region will be ahead of a stronger mid/upper jet in a northwest flow regime. Dewpoints are expected to be in the 70s F with MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg and effective shear of 40-50 kt. The long hodographs should support a dominant supercell storm mode, with large hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging winds all possible from late afternoon into the night.
The greatest risk area is currently forecast from parts of Kentucky and Indiana across Ohio, West Virginia, and western Pennsylvania. However, these areas will likely be adjusted spatially as predictability increases in later updates.
..Jewell.. 07/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Wednesday, July 22
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, July 22 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Thursday, July 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, July 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, July 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, July 26 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190746 SPC AC 190746
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Wed - Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas
An upper trough will lift northeast across the region on Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front will be oriented from roughly the Hudson Valley to the central Appalachians at the beginning of the period. Within a zone of strong warm advection ahead of the surface front, widespread showers and thunderstorm may be ongoing across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, resulting in uncertainty regarding northward extent of severe potential. For now, the 15 percent severe probability has been confined to portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas ahead of the surface trough/cold front. A very moist airmass will be in place across the region, and 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes are forecast. Thunderstorm clusters or linear bands are expected to move across the region through evening, posing mainly a risk for damaging winds.
Days 5-8/Thu-Sun
Severe potential is expected to be lower late in the week into the weekend. An upper trough will persist over the eastern U.S., but deep-layer flow will be weak. Further west, the subtropical high will intensify over the Plains and into the Four Corners vicinity while the associated amplified upper ridge persists northward into the Canadian Prairies. As boundary layer moisture spreads northward beneath the upper ridge, some severe potential could develop each day across parts of the High Plains. However, this will largely be driven by mesoscale processes not well resolved at longer lead times. Overall, the intense upper ridge should largely suppress greater severe potential.
..Leitman.. 07/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, July 23
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, July 22 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Thursday, July 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, July 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, July 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, July 26 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190746 SPC AC 190746
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Wed - Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas
An upper trough will lift northeast across the region on Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front will be oriented from roughly the Hudson Valley to the central Appalachians at the beginning of the period. Within a zone of strong warm advection ahead of the surface front, widespread showers and thunderstorm may be ongoing across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, resulting in uncertainty regarding northward extent of severe potential. For now, the 15 percent severe probability has been confined to portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas ahead of the surface trough/cold front. A very moist airmass will be in place across the region, and 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes are forecast. Thunderstorm clusters or linear bands are expected to move across the region through evening, posing mainly a risk for damaging winds.
Days 5-8/Thu-Sun
Severe potential is expected to be lower late in the week into the weekend. An upper trough will persist over the eastern U.S., but deep-layer flow will be weak. Further west, the subtropical high will intensify over the Plains and into the Four Corners vicinity while the associated amplified upper ridge persists northward into the Canadian Prairies. As boundary layer moisture spreads northward beneath the upper ridge, some severe potential could develop each day across parts of the High Plains. However, this will largely be driven by mesoscale processes not well resolved at longer lead times. Overall, the intense upper ridge should largely suppress greater severe potential.
..Leitman.. 07/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, July 24
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, July 22 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Thursday, July 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, July 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, July 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, July 26 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190746 SPC AC 190746
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Wed - Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas
An upper trough will lift northeast across the region on Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front will be oriented from roughly the Hudson Valley to the central Appalachians at the beginning of the period. Within a zone of strong warm advection ahead of the surface front, widespread showers and thunderstorm may be ongoing across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, resulting in uncertainty regarding northward extent of severe potential. For now, the 15 percent severe probability has been confined to portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas ahead of the surface trough/cold front. A very moist airmass will be in place across the region, and 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes are forecast. Thunderstorm clusters or linear bands are expected to move across the region through evening, posing mainly a risk for damaging winds.
Days 5-8/Thu-Sun
Severe potential is expected to be lower late in the week into the weekend. An upper trough will persist over the eastern U.S., but deep-layer flow will be weak. Further west, the subtropical high will intensify over the Plains and into the Four Corners vicinity while the associated amplified upper ridge persists northward into the Canadian Prairies. As boundary layer moisture spreads northward beneath the upper ridge, some severe potential could develop each day across parts of the High Plains. However, this will largely be driven by mesoscale processes not well resolved at longer lead times. Overall, the intense upper ridge should largely suppress greater severe potential.
..Leitman.. 07/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, July 25
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, July 22 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Thursday, July 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, July 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, July 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, July 26 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190746 SPC AC 190746
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Wed - Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas
An upper trough will lift northeast across the region on Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front will be oriented from roughly the Hudson Valley to the central Appalachians at the beginning of the period. Within a zone of strong warm advection ahead of the surface front, widespread showers and thunderstorm may be ongoing across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, resulting in uncertainty regarding northward extent of severe potential. For now, the 15 percent severe probability has been confined to portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas ahead of the surface trough/cold front. A very moist airmass will be in place across the region, and 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes are forecast. Thunderstorm clusters or linear bands are expected to move across the region through evening, posing mainly a risk for damaging winds.
Days 5-8/Thu-Sun
Severe potential is expected to be lower late in the week into the weekend. An upper trough will persist over the eastern U.S., but deep-layer flow will be weak. Further west, the subtropical high will intensify over the Plains and into the Four Corners vicinity while the associated amplified upper ridge persists northward into the Canadian Prairies. As boundary layer moisture spreads northward beneath the upper ridge, some severe potential could develop each day across parts of the High Plains. However, this will largely be driven by mesoscale processes not well resolved at longer lead times. Overall, the intense upper ridge should largely suppress greater severe potential.
..Leitman.. 07/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, July 26
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, July 22 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Thursday, July 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, July 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, July 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, July 26 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190746 SPC AC 190746
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Wed - Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas
An upper trough will lift northeast across the region on Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front will be oriented from roughly the Hudson Valley to the central Appalachians at the beginning of the period. Within a zone of strong warm advection ahead of the surface front, widespread showers and thunderstorm may be ongoing across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, resulting in uncertainty regarding northward extent of severe potential. For now, the 15 percent severe probability has been confined to portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas ahead of the surface trough/cold front. A very moist airmass will be in place across the region, and 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes are forecast. Thunderstorm clusters or linear bands are expected to move across the region through evening, posing mainly a risk for damaging winds.
Days 5-8/Thu-Sun
Severe potential is expected to be lower late in the week into the weekend. An upper trough will persist over the eastern U.S., but deep-layer flow will be weak. Further west, the subtropical high will intensify over the Plains and into the Four Corners vicinity while the associated amplified upper ridge persists northward into the Canadian Prairies. As boundary layer moisture spreads northward beneath the upper ridge, some severe potential could develop each day across parts of the High Plains. However, this will largely be driven by mesoscale processes not well resolved at longer lead times. Overall, the intense upper ridge should largely suppress greater severe potential.
..Leitman.. 07/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, July 19
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Monday, July 20
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 30%
- Tuesday, July 21
- ANY SEVERE: 45%
- Wednesday, July 22
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Thursday, July 23
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, July 24
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, July 25
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, July 26
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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