Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, October 10
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms associated with a tornado threat will be possible today from the eastern Florida Panhandle northeastward into the Carolinas. A few severe wind gusts may also occur in parts of the Desert Southwest.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 100554
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE…GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms associated with a tornado threat will be possible today from the eastern Florida Panhandle northeastward into the Carolinas. A few severe wind gusts may also occur in parts of the Desert Southwest.
Eastern Florida Panhandle/Georgia/Carolinas
The remnants of Isaias are forecast to move northward into the Tennessee Valley today. The eastern extent of the system will move north-northeastward across Georgia and South Carolina today, where isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop as surface temperatures warm. From eastern Georgia into South Carolina, surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s F will contribute to moderate instability, with MLCAPE likely peaking in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range. RAP forecast soundings along and near the axis of instability this afternoon have veering winds with height below 850 mb and 30 to 40 knot of flow in the low to mid-levels. 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to peak near 225 m2/s2. This will support a tornado threat with supercells that remain semi-discrete. The tornado threat is expected to persist into the evening as the eastern periphery of Isaias moves into the Carolinas.
Western and Southern Arizona/Southeast California
A mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward toward Baja California today, with the system interacting with Tropical Storm Rachel. Ahead of the system, low-level moisture advection will increase surface dewpoints into the 60s F over much of western and southern Arizona by this evening. In response, MLCAPE is forecast to increase to near 1000 J/kg over parts of southwest Arizona. This combined with large-scale ascent ahead of the system and lift associated with a low-level jet will provide support for scattered thunderstorm development. In addition, the exit region of a mid-level jet is forecast to overspread southwest Arizona during the evening. This feature will create moderate to strong deep-layer shear, which will be sufficient for supercells. If a supercell can develop, then isolated severe wind gusts would be possible.
..Broyles/Chalmers.. 10/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Sunday, October 11
Outlook Summary
Widely scattered severe storms capable of a few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts appear possible over portions of North Carolina, Virginia, and southeast Maryland Sunday afternoon and evening. A brief tornado or two may occur over portions of the lower Colorado Valley Sunday morning, with sporadic occurrences of severe wind gusts possible into the Great Basin and central Rockies Sunday afternoon and evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 100532
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA…VIRGINIA…AND SOUTHEAST MARYLAND
### SUMMARY
Widely scattered severe storms capable of a few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts appear possible over portions of North Carolina, Virginia, and southeast Maryland Sunday afternoon and evening. A brief tornado or two may occur over portions of the lower Colorado Valley Sunday morning, with sporadic occurrences of severe wind gusts possible into the Great Basin and central Rockies Sunday afternoon and evening.
Synopsis
A mid/upper-level low over KY and TN Sunday morning is forecast to evolve into an open wave while progressing into the Mid-Atlantic by Sunday night. That system will be preceded by a focused corridor of height falls and a belt of 45-55+ kt southwesterly flow in the midlevels, which will overspread the Carolinas and southern Mid-Atlantic during the day. While the primary surface low will remain displaced to the northwest of the warm sector, secondary cyclogenesis is forecast during the afternoon over central VA at the junction of a cool front/trough advancing east from the Blue Ridge and a warm front lifting north into the Mid-Atlantic.
Elsewhere, the remnants of Tropical Storm Rachel will weaken while accelerating from southern CA into the Great Basin within a belt of 50-60 kt midlevel flow. The associated surface circulation/low will likewise develop from southern CA into northern UT by Sunday evening.
### Southern Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas
A 40-45 kt low-level jet will persist over the Piedmont and Coastal Plain, enhancing the poleward transport of a moist boundary layer, characterized by dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing at 12Z Sunday within the expanding warm sector with lingering clouds and areas of precipitation limiting daytime heating and resultant destabilization at many locations. Nonetheless, a moist and at least marginally unstable air mass will coincide with strengthening low-level and deep-layer shear, which may support transient supercells with the threat for a brief tornado or two and/or strong wind gusts spreading from the Carolinas into the southern Mid-Atlantic on Sunday.
A higher-probability risk for sustained supercells capable of a few tornadoes and damaging winds may materialize by afternoon into evening from portions of central and eastern NC into south-central into southeast VA, where the 00Z REFS and HREF guidance indicates a corridor of locally stronger instability (SBCAPE up to 1000-1250 J/kg). Those areas have been upgraded to 5% tornado and 15% wind probabilities and a related Level-2/Slight Risk.
Lower Colorado Valley into the Great Basin and central Rockies
A low-level moisture plume (e.g., dewpoints in the mid 50s to mid-upper 60s) originating from the Gulf of CA will reside over the lower-CO Valley Sunday morning, with REFS and HREF guidance indicating SBCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. Relatively strong vertical shear, aided by the low-level mass response to the remnant Rachel circulation, will be more than sufficient for supercells and bowing structures capable of isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or two over the lower-CO Valley Sunday morning.
As mentioned in the synopsis, the system will weaken through the day, leading to greater uncertainty in the extent of any associated severe weather threat during the afternoon into evening. That said, corridors of modest instability are expected to develop across portions of the Great Basin into the central Rockies, which combined with relatively strong cloud-bearing shear will be supportive of widely scattered severe storms capable of mainly severe wind gusts.
..Mead.. 10/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Monday, October 12
Outlook Summary
No severe weather is expected Monday through Monday night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 100721
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
No severe weather is expected Monday through Monday night.
Synopsis
A midlevel low initially over the Columbia Basin is forecast to progress south toward the Sierra Nevada, while an upper-level jet streak develops from the lower-CO Valley into the Upper Midwest. Ahead of the latter feature, a low-amplitude short-wave trough is projected to move from the northern High Plains into the Upper Midwest, embedded within a belt of 40-50 kt midlevel flow. In the low levels, an area of low pressure loosely related to the short-wave trough is expected to develop from the mid-MO Valley into the Upper Midwest along a stationary front. A cold front will trail southwest from that feature, linking with a secondary cyclone over the central High Plains.
Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes
A plume of relatively steep midlevel lapse rates of around 7 C/km will overlie the northern extension of a moistening boundary layer, supporting a corridor of moderate instability by afternoon to the south of the surface low and associated front described in the synopsis. Capping at the base of the lapse-rate plume/EML is likely to inhibit surface-based storm development in the warm sector. However, the 00Z models suggest that a cluster of elevated thunderstorms may persist Monday afternoon into night to the immediate north of the warm sector within a zone of forcing for ascent preceding the short-wave trough. While a few strong storms capable of small hail appear possible, marginal parcel buoyancy and only modest cloud-bearing shear are expected to limit the threat for severe weather.
..Mead.. 10/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Tuesday, October 13
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, October 13 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, October 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, October 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, October 16 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, October 17 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100820 SPC AC 100820
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
The 00Z models have slowed the progression of an upper low and associated trough from the Great Basin into the central Rockies on Days 4 and 5/Tuesday and Wednesday. By Day 6/Thursday and beyond, model spread increases in the handling of that midlevel system, leading to greater uncertainty in the evolution of the large-scale pattern.
Day 4/Tuesday
There is some model signal that a subtle disturbance embedded within a belt of enhanced mid/upper-level flow will progress from the southern Rockies into the central High Plains, aiding in the deepening of a lee cyclone over southeast CO. Elsewhere, a low-amplitude disturbance is forecast to advance from the Great Lakes into the Northeast, in tandem with another surface low. A frontal system will connect the two lows, stretching from the lower Great Lakes through the OH Valley into the central Plains. A dryline will extend south from the lee cyclone to along the TX-NM border. A moist and unstable air mass will reside south of the front, especially over the central and southern Plains, where richer boundary-layer moisture is expected to reside.
Isolated severe storms appear possible along the front Tuesday afternoon and evening, especially in the Northeast, and from the lower-MO Valley into the central and southern Plains. The most probable location for organized severe storm potential is over the southern High Plains in the vicinity of the lee cyclone and strengthening low-level jet where stronger forcing for ascent and vertical shear will coincide with a moderately unstable air mass.
### Day 5/Wednesday
The slowing of the upper-air system and the potential for thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday morning lead to greater uncertainty in where the strongest instability will develop by afternoon. Isolated severe storms appear possible along and south of a surface front from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the central and southern Plains. However, confidence in delineating an area of more concentrated severe weather potential has diminished. And as such, the previously included 15% contour will be removed for this forecast update.
### Days 6 through 8/Thursday through Saturday
As alluded to above, spread increases across the models (especially the deterministic solutions) in the handling of the central Rockies low/trough. However, the general signal is for a trend toward a less-favorable synoptic pattern for severe storms by next weekend.
..Mead.. 10/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, October 14
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, October 13 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, October 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, October 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, October 16 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, October 17 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100820 SPC AC 100820
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
The 00Z models have slowed the progression of an upper low and associated trough from the Great Basin into the central Rockies on Days 4 and 5/Tuesday and Wednesday. By Day 6/Thursday and beyond, model spread increases in the handling of that midlevel system, leading to greater uncertainty in the evolution of the large-scale pattern.
Day 4/Tuesday
There is some model signal that a subtle disturbance embedded within a belt of enhanced mid/upper-level flow will progress from the southern Rockies into the central High Plains, aiding in the deepening of a lee cyclone over southeast CO. Elsewhere, a low-amplitude disturbance is forecast to advance from the Great Lakes into the Northeast, in tandem with another surface low. A frontal system will connect the two lows, stretching from the lower Great Lakes through the OH Valley into the central Plains. A dryline will extend south from the lee cyclone to along the TX-NM border. A moist and unstable air mass will reside south of the front, especially over the central and southern Plains, where richer boundary-layer moisture is expected to reside.
Isolated severe storms appear possible along the front Tuesday afternoon and evening, especially in the Northeast, and from the lower-MO Valley into the central and southern Plains. The most probable location for organized severe storm potential is over the southern High Plains in the vicinity of the lee cyclone and strengthening low-level jet where stronger forcing for ascent and vertical shear will coincide with a moderately unstable air mass.
### Day 5/Wednesday
The slowing of the upper-air system and the potential for thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday morning lead to greater uncertainty in where the strongest instability will develop by afternoon. Isolated severe storms appear possible along and south of a surface front from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the central and southern Plains. However, confidence in delineating an area of more concentrated severe weather potential has diminished. And as such, the previously included 15% contour will be removed for this forecast update.
### Days 6 through 8/Thursday through Saturday
As alluded to above, spread increases across the models (especially the deterministic solutions) in the handling of the central Rockies low/trough. However, the general signal is for a trend toward a less-favorable synoptic pattern for severe storms by next weekend.
..Mead.. 10/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, October 15
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, October 13 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, October 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, October 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, October 16 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, October 17 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100820 SPC AC 100820
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
The 00Z models have slowed the progression of an upper low and associated trough from the Great Basin into the central Rockies on Days 4 and 5/Tuesday and Wednesday. By Day 6/Thursday and beyond, model spread increases in the handling of that midlevel system, leading to greater uncertainty in the evolution of the large-scale pattern.
Day 4/Tuesday
There is some model signal that a subtle disturbance embedded within a belt of enhanced mid/upper-level flow will progress from the southern Rockies into the central High Plains, aiding in the deepening of a lee cyclone over southeast CO. Elsewhere, a low-amplitude disturbance is forecast to advance from the Great Lakes into the Northeast, in tandem with another surface low. A frontal system will connect the two lows, stretching from the lower Great Lakes through the OH Valley into the central Plains. A dryline will extend south from the lee cyclone to along the TX-NM border. A moist and unstable air mass will reside south of the front, especially over the central and southern Plains, where richer boundary-layer moisture is expected to reside.
Isolated severe storms appear possible along the front Tuesday afternoon and evening, especially in the Northeast, and from the lower-MO Valley into the central and southern Plains. The most probable location for organized severe storm potential is over the southern High Plains in the vicinity of the lee cyclone and strengthening low-level jet where stronger forcing for ascent and vertical shear will coincide with a moderately unstable air mass.
### Day 5/Wednesday
The slowing of the upper-air system and the potential for thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday morning lead to greater uncertainty in where the strongest instability will develop by afternoon. Isolated severe storms appear possible along and south of a surface front from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the central and southern Plains. However, confidence in delineating an area of more concentrated severe weather potential has diminished. And as such, the previously included 15% contour will be removed for this forecast update.
### Days 6 through 8/Thursday through Saturday
As alluded to above, spread increases across the models (especially the deterministic solutions) in the handling of the central Rockies low/trough. However, the general signal is for a trend toward a less-favorable synoptic pattern for severe storms by next weekend.
..Mead.. 10/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, October 16
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, October 13 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, October 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, October 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, October 16 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, October 17 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100820 SPC AC 100820
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
The 00Z models have slowed the progression of an upper low and associated trough from the Great Basin into the central Rockies on Days 4 and 5/Tuesday and Wednesday. By Day 6/Thursday and beyond, model spread increases in the handling of that midlevel system, leading to greater uncertainty in the evolution of the large-scale pattern.
Day 4/Tuesday
There is some model signal that a subtle disturbance embedded within a belt of enhanced mid/upper-level flow will progress from the southern Rockies into the central High Plains, aiding in the deepening of a lee cyclone over southeast CO. Elsewhere, a low-amplitude disturbance is forecast to advance from the Great Lakes into the Northeast, in tandem with another surface low. A frontal system will connect the two lows, stretching from the lower Great Lakes through the OH Valley into the central Plains. A dryline will extend south from the lee cyclone to along the TX-NM border. A moist and unstable air mass will reside south of the front, especially over the central and southern Plains, where richer boundary-layer moisture is expected to reside.
Isolated severe storms appear possible along the front Tuesday afternoon and evening, especially in the Northeast, and from the lower-MO Valley into the central and southern Plains. The most probable location for organized severe storm potential is over the southern High Plains in the vicinity of the lee cyclone and strengthening low-level jet where stronger forcing for ascent and vertical shear will coincide with a moderately unstable air mass.
### Day 5/Wednesday
The slowing of the upper-air system and the potential for thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday morning lead to greater uncertainty in where the strongest instability will develop by afternoon. Isolated severe storms appear possible along and south of a surface front from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the central and southern Plains. However, confidence in delineating an area of more concentrated severe weather potential has diminished. And as such, the previously included 15% contour will be removed for this forecast update.
### Days 6 through 8/Thursday through Saturday
As alluded to above, spread increases across the models (especially the deterministic solutions) in the handling of the central Rockies low/trough. However, the general signal is for a trend toward a less-favorable synoptic pattern for severe storms by next weekend.
..Mead.. 10/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, October 17
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, October 13 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, October 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, October 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, October 16 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, October 17 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100820 SPC AC 100820
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
The 00Z models have slowed the progression of an upper low and associated trough from the Great Basin into the central Rockies on Days 4 and 5/Tuesday and Wednesday. By Day 6/Thursday and beyond, model spread increases in the handling of that midlevel system, leading to greater uncertainty in the evolution of the large-scale pattern.
Day 4/Tuesday
There is some model signal that a subtle disturbance embedded within a belt of enhanced mid/upper-level flow will progress from the southern Rockies into the central High Plains, aiding in the deepening of a lee cyclone over southeast CO. Elsewhere, a low-amplitude disturbance is forecast to advance from the Great Lakes into the Northeast, in tandem with another surface low. A frontal system will connect the two lows, stretching from the lower Great Lakes through the OH Valley into the central Plains. A dryline will extend south from the lee cyclone to along the TX-NM border. A moist and unstable air mass will reside south of the front, especially over the central and southern Plains, where richer boundary-layer moisture is expected to reside.
Isolated severe storms appear possible along the front Tuesday afternoon and evening, especially in the Northeast, and from the lower-MO Valley into the central and southern Plains. The most probable location for organized severe storm potential is over the southern High Plains in the vicinity of the lee cyclone and strengthening low-level jet where stronger forcing for ascent and vertical shear will coincide with a moderately unstable air mass.
### Day 5/Wednesday
The slowing of the upper-air system and the potential for thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday morning lead to greater uncertainty in where the strongest instability will develop by afternoon. Isolated severe storms appear possible along and south of a surface front from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the central and southern Plains. However, confidence in delineating an area of more concentrated severe weather potential has diminished. And as such, the previously included 15% contour will be removed for this forecast update.
### Days 6 through 8/Thursday through Saturday
As alluded to above, spread increases across the models (especially the deterministic solutions) in the handling of the central Rockies low/trough. However, the general signal is for a trend toward a less-favorable synoptic pattern for severe storms by next weekend.
..Mead.. 10/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, October 10
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Sunday, October 11
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 15%
- Monday, October 12
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Tuesday, October 13
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Wednesday, October 14
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, October 15
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, October 16
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, October 17
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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