Severe Weather Outlook

show me my personal outlook →

National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Saturday, July 11

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible today from parts of Ozarks eastward into the mid Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Severe wind gusts are also possible in southeast Arizona. A few severe gusts may also occur in the southern Plains and from the southern Appalachians to the Atlantic Seaboard.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 110557

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE OZARKS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY…AND IN SOUTHEAST ARIZONA

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible today from parts of Ozarks eastward into the mid Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Severe wind gusts are also possible in southeast Arizona. A few severe gusts may also occur in the southern Plains and from the southern Appalachians to the Atlantic Seaboard.

Mid Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys/Ozarks/Southern Plains

A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley today. At the surface, a very moist airmass will be in place from the Ozarks eastward into the Tennessee Valley, where dewpoints will be in the 70s F. Low-level convergence is expected to increase by early afternoon ahead of the shortwave trough in the mid Mississippi Valley. This combined with large-scale ascent ahead of the shortwave trough will support scattered thunderstorm development in the afternoon from eastern Missouri into southern Illinois and western Kentucky. Additional storms may develop along an east-to-west axis of low-level convergence from far northern Arkansas into western and middle Tennessee. As surface temperatures warm today, MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range over much of this airmass, with 0-6 km shear in the 20 to 30 knot range. This, along with steep low-level lapse rates, will be favorable for severe wind gusts with the stronger multicells. The threat should be concentrated in the afternoon and early evening.

Additional more isolated storms are expected to form this afternoon from the Texas Panhandle eastward into Oklahoma. Moderate instability and steep low-level lapse rates will support an isolated threat for severe gusts, mainly in the late afternoon.

Southeast Arizona

A moist airmass will be in place over southern Arizona today with surface dewpoints in the 50s F. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability will likely develop over much of southeastern Arizona, where SBCAPE should peak in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. Thunderstorms are expected to form along a north-to-south corridor of low-level convergence near the Arizona and New Mexico state line, with storms moving westward across southeast Arizona. At 00Z, RAP forecast soundings have 0-6 km shear near 25 knots, with 0-3 km lapse rates in the 8 to 9 C/km range. This environment will be favorable for severe wind gusts with the stronger multicells, especially if an organized line can develop.

Southern Appalachians to Atlantic Seaboard

A very moist airmass will be in place today from the southern Appalachians eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, where surface dewpoints will be from the upper 60s to the mid 70s F. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability will develop over much of the region. Thunderstorms that form in the higher terrain and along zones of convergence will have potential for isolated severe gusts. The threat will be concentrated in the late afternoon as instability and low-level lapse rates become maximized.

..Broyles/Halbert.. 07/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Sunday, July 12

Outlook Summary

Scattered strong-to-severe thunderstorms capable of producing wind damage will be possible across much of the Southeast on Sunday, with the greatest potential across South Carolina. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of Arizona late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 110600

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST GEORGIA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA

### SUMMARY

Scattered strong-to-severe thunderstorms capable of producing wind damage will be possible across much of the Southeast on Sunday, with the greatest potential across South Carolina. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of Arizona late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.

Synopsis

The center of an expansive mid-level ridge will build northeast from the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains on Sunday, encompassing much of the contiguous US. A weak, positively-tilted mid-level trough will slowly move southeast from the Ohio Valley into the Tennessee Valley.

At the surface, a weak low will meander southeast underneath the aforementioned mid-level trough. At the start of the forecast period, a convectively augmented boundary will arc from this low southwest into Arkansas before turning northwestward and extending into south-central/south-west Kansas. This boundary will push south through the period and serve as a focus for additional thunderstorm development Sunday afternoon.

### Much of South Carolina into East Georgia

Ahead of the meandering surface low, a very warm and moist airmass will once again be in place as surface temperatures warm into the 80Fs and 90Fs in the presence of surface dewpoint temperatures in the 60Fs and low 70Fs. The result will be around 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE within a mostly uncapped environment. Scattered thunderstorms should develop during the afternoon as convective temperatures are breached. Weak mid-level flow (on the order of 15-20 knots) will favor single cells and multicell clusters. Relatively steep low-level lapse rates beneath the LCL and high precipitable water values will support downbursts/outflow winds capable of damage. Given the cooler mid-level temperatures associated with the mid-level trough, a few marginally severe hail reports may also occur.

### Southern High Plains into the Southeast

To the south of the previously mentioned surface boundary, a warm/hot moist airmass will be in place as temperatures warm into the 90Fs to near 100F with dewpoints in the 60Fs and 70Fs. This will result in MUCAPE on the order of 2000 to perhaps 3000 J/kg. Strong diurnal heating coupled with weak convergence along the surface boundary should result in scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon. These storms will be capable of producing strong-to-marginally severe convective outflow winds.

### Arizona

Steep mid-level lapse rates and ample mid-level moisture will support scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon. This region will be to the south of the strong CONUS-wide ridge with a belt of enhanced easterlies overhead. This should allow thunderstorms that develop across the higher terrain of Arizona to move west into the lower desert. A deeply mixed boundary layer will allow for strong outflow winds to develop as convection spreads west into southern and central Arizona.

### Upper Great Lakes

This region will be glanced by large-scale ascent associated with a strengthening mid-level jet across central Canada. Surface temperatures warming into the upper 80Fs and low 90Fs with dewpoints temperatures in the mid 60Fs to perhaps 70Fs will result in strong instability during the afternoon. Large-scale ascent will be modest at best, but a few thunderstorms are expected to develop, perhaps along a 700-millibar front/boundary, during the afternoon. Steep low-level and mid-level lapse rates and effective-layer shear on the order of 30-35 knots will support a few strong-to-severe wind gusts and perhaps marginally severe hail. Forecast hodographs have modest curvature in the low-levels that a tornado or two may be possible with any supercell that can sustain itself and move more southerly, realizing the totality of the low-level curvature.

..Marsh.. 07/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Monday, July 13

Outlook Summary

A few strong-to-severe storms will be possible from northern Florida into much of South Carolina.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 110728

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO MUCH OF SOUTH CAROLINA

### SUMMARY

A few strong-to-severe storms will be possible from northern Florida into much of South Carolina.

Synopsis

The persistent CONUS-wide mid-level ridge centered across the north-central US will begin to flatten and elongate on Monday as a strong mid-level trough moves across central Canada. As the mid-level ridge flattens/elongates it will place much of the southern US in easterly mid-level flow. This easterly mid-level flow will cause a weak mid-level trough across the Tennessee Valley to retrograde. This high-over-low pattern will feature a belt of enhanced easterlies stretching from the lower Great Lakes west into the Central Plains.

At the surface, a weak surface low over the southern Appalachians will redevelop westward toward Alabama during the afternoon. The combination of this surface low with a surface ridge centered across the Mid-Mississippi Valley will result in northerly low-level flow across much of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and western parts of the Southeast.

### Northern Florida into much of South Carolina

As the surface low redevelops across Alabama on Monday, this area will experience southwesterly surface flow that will maintain a warm, moist airmass. Residual cooler mid-level temperatures (as compared to surrounding areas) associated with the weak mid-level trough and strong diurnal heating of this moist airmass will result in afternoon thunderstorms. Deep-layer shear remains weak across the area which should limit overall thunderstorm organization, favoring instead single cells and a few multicell clusters. A few heavy, water-loaded downdrafts will be capable of producing sporadic wind damage.

..Marsh.. 07/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Tuesday, July 14

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100859 SPC AC 100859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

Ensemble guidance continues to indicate that the western US mid-level ridge will build into the north-central US during the first part of the forecast period. Toward the middle and end of the week, this ridge should retrograde westward as a series of mid-level troughs move across the apex of the ridge in central Canada. One particularly strong trough will impact New England on Tuesday into Wednesday.

### Tuesday/Day 5

GEFS and EPS ensemble guidance is in remarkably good agreement that a strong short-wave trough will approach New England during the day on Tuesday and move across the region Tuesday night. Ahead of this trough, both ensemble systems have mean surface temperatures in the 70Fs and 80Fs with surface dewpoints in the mid-to-upper-60Fs across much of the area. The result will be MUCAPE values in the 1000-2000 J/kg range amidst seasonably strong vertical shear. Supporting this are ensemble probabilities greater than 50 percent for the supercell composite index to be greater than 1.

As the trough approaches New England, the expectation is for one or more clusters of storms to develop during the afternoon across portions of Quebec and move into and then across New England during the late afternoon into evening/overnight hours. Although there is some spread within the ensemble regarding the timing of the wave moving across the area, with solutions ranging from afternoon to overnight, the overall environment should remain favorable for damaging thunderstorm winds to occur, even into the early overnight hours.

### Friday/Day 8

Ensemble guidance is beginning to suggest some severe potential across portions of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic region. This area is forecast to be on the eastern periphery of the strong western US ridge and near the basal region of a long-wave trough across eastern Canada and New England. Surface temperatures are expected to range from the upper-80Fs to mid-90Fs with surface dewpoint temperatures in the 60Fs. Parcel trajectories around the western ridge do not favor much in the way of an elevated mixed layer, so scattered thunderstorm development is likely. The magnitude of the severe potential will likely rest on the strength of the deep-layer shear and the number of storms.

..Marsh.. 07/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Wednesday, July 15

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100859 SPC AC 100859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

Ensemble guidance continues to indicate that the western US mid-level ridge will build into the north-central US during the first part of the forecast period. Toward the middle and end of the week, this ridge should retrograde westward as a series of mid-level troughs move across the apex of the ridge in central Canada. One particularly strong trough will impact New England on Tuesday into Wednesday.

### Tuesday/Day 5

GEFS and EPS ensemble guidance is in remarkably good agreement that a strong short-wave trough will approach New England during the day on Tuesday and move across the region Tuesday night. Ahead of this trough, both ensemble systems have mean surface temperatures in the 70Fs and 80Fs with surface dewpoints in the mid-to-upper-60Fs across much of the area. The result will be MUCAPE values in the 1000-2000 J/kg range amidst seasonably strong vertical shear. Supporting this are ensemble probabilities greater than 50 percent for the supercell composite index to be greater than 1.

As the trough approaches New England, the expectation is for one or more clusters of storms to develop during the afternoon across portions of Quebec and move into and then across New England during the late afternoon into evening/overnight hours. Although there is some spread within the ensemble regarding the timing of the wave moving across the area, with solutions ranging from afternoon to overnight, the overall environment should remain favorable for damaging thunderstorm winds to occur, even into the early overnight hours.

### Friday/Day 8

Ensemble guidance is beginning to suggest some severe potential across portions of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic region. This area is forecast to be on the eastern periphery of the strong western US ridge and near the basal region of a long-wave trough across eastern Canada and New England. Surface temperatures are expected to range from the upper-80Fs to mid-90Fs with surface dewpoint temperatures in the 60Fs. Parcel trajectories around the western ridge do not favor much in the way of an elevated mixed layer, so scattered thunderstorm development is likely. The magnitude of the severe potential will likely rest on the strength of the deep-layer shear and the number of storms.

..Marsh.. 07/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Thursday, July 16

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100859 SPC AC 100859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

Ensemble guidance continues to indicate that the western US mid-level ridge will build into the north-central US during the first part of the forecast period. Toward the middle and end of the week, this ridge should retrograde westward as a series of mid-level troughs move across the apex of the ridge in central Canada. One particularly strong trough will impact New England on Tuesday into Wednesday.

### Tuesday/Day 5

GEFS and EPS ensemble guidance is in remarkably good agreement that a strong short-wave trough will approach New England during the day on Tuesday and move across the region Tuesday night. Ahead of this trough, both ensemble systems have mean surface temperatures in the 70Fs and 80Fs with surface dewpoints in the mid-to-upper-60Fs across much of the area. The result will be MUCAPE values in the 1000-2000 J/kg range amidst seasonably strong vertical shear. Supporting this are ensemble probabilities greater than 50 percent for the supercell composite index to be greater than 1.

As the trough approaches New England, the expectation is for one or more clusters of storms to develop during the afternoon across portions of Quebec and move into and then across New England during the late afternoon into evening/overnight hours. Although there is some spread within the ensemble regarding the timing of the wave moving across the area, with solutions ranging from afternoon to overnight, the overall environment should remain favorable for damaging thunderstorm winds to occur, even into the early overnight hours.

### Friday/Day 8

Ensemble guidance is beginning to suggest some severe potential across portions of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic region. This area is forecast to be on the eastern periphery of the strong western US ridge and near the basal region of a long-wave trough across eastern Canada and New England. Surface temperatures are expected to range from the upper-80Fs to mid-90Fs with surface dewpoint temperatures in the 60Fs. Parcel trajectories around the western ridge do not favor much in the way of an elevated mixed layer, so scattered thunderstorm development is likely. The magnitude of the severe potential will likely rest on the strength of the deep-layer shear and the number of storms.

..Marsh.. 07/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Friday, July 17

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100859 SPC AC 100859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

Ensemble guidance continues to indicate that the western US mid-level ridge will build into the north-central US during the first part of the forecast period. Toward the middle and end of the week, this ridge should retrograde westward as a series of mid-level troughs move across the apex of the ridge in central Canada. One particularly strong trough will impact New England on Tuesday into Wednesday.

### Tuesday/Day 5

GEFS and EPS ensemble guidance is in remarkably good agreement that a strong short-wave trough will approach New England during the day on Tuesday and move across the region Tuesday night. Ahead of this trough, both ensemble systems have mean surface temperatures in the 70Fs and 80Fs with surface dewpoints in the mid-to-upper-60Fs across much of the area. The result will be MUCAPE values in the 1000-2000 J/kg range amidst seasonably strong vertical shear. Supporting this are ensemble probabilities greater than 50 percent for the supercell composite index to be greater than 1.

As the trough approaches New England, the expectation is for one or more clusters of storms to develop during the afternoon across portions of Quebec and move into and then across New England during the late afternoon into evening/overnight hours. Although there is some spread within the ensemble regarding the timing of the wave moving across the area, with solutions ranging from afternoon to overnight, the overall environment should remain favorable for damaging thunderstorm winds to occur, even into the early overnight hours.

### Friday/Day 8

Ensemble guidance is beginning to suggest some severe potential across portions of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic region. This area is forecast to be on the eastern periphery of the strong western US ridge and near the basal region of a long-wave trough across eastern Canada and New England. Surface temperatures are expected to range from the upper-80Fs to mid-90Fs with surface dewpoint temperatures in the 60Fs. Parcel trajectories around the western ridge do not favor much in the way of an elevated mixed layer, so scattered thunderstorm development is likely. The magnitude of the severe potential will likely rest on the strength of the deep-layer shear and the number of storms.

..Marsh.. 07/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

National Risk Overview

Saturday, July 11

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 15%

Sunday, July 12

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 15%

Monday, July 13

ANY SEVERE: 5%

Tuesday, July 14

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Wednesday, July 15

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Thursday, July 16

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, July 17

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

---

Your Severe Outlook

---

---

About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.

• tornado hq - live severe weather warnings
• cyclocane - hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones
• tornado solitaire - play cards while you monitor the US severe weather threat
• tertremo - live view of earthquakes around the world
• earthquake solitaire - get live earthquake updates as you play your favorite card game