Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, November 5
Outlook Summary
Severe storms are unlikely today and tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 051248
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2026
Valid 051300Z - 061200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe storms are unlikely today and tonight.
Synopsis
Early-morning satellite imagery reveals several shortwave troughs within the active upper pattern across the CONUS. A southern-stream wave currently moving eastward across the TX Panhandle vicinity is forecast to become increasingly phased with another wave dropping through the Mid MS Valley, resulting in a unified upper trough from the Great Lakes/Ontario through the southern Plains by 00Z Friday. Northern-stream upper ridging west of this upper trough is forecast to move eastward over more of the northern Plains/Canadian Prairies while another quick-moving shortwave deepens as it moves into the Intermountain West.
Recent surface analysis places a cold front from far western Quebec southward into far western PA before continuing south-southwestward to a weak low over the TN/NC border vicinity. Modest moisture exists downstream from this front, with mid 60s dewpoints across much of VA and low 60s dewpoints as far north as the Hudson Valley. Modest northward moisture advection is anticipated ahead of this cold front as it moves eastward today, supporting showers and thunderstorms from the Mid-Atlantic into the New England.
Southern New England into the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Northeast this morning into the early afternoon, ahead of a weak low-amplitude shortwave trough. Additional thunderstorms are possible this evening and overnight, beginning along and ahead the front across the northern Mid-Atlantic before spreading northward into southern New England and southward into the rest of the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. Buoyancy will be modest, tempered by poor lapse rates, widespread cloud cover and post peak heating frontal timing. Consequently, predominantly shallow, short-lived updrafts are anticipated. However, given the presence of moderately strong deep-layer southwesterly flow, any deeper convection could briefly produce damaging gusts. Anticipated isolated and brief nature of any severe threat currently precludes the need for any severe probabilities.
OK/TX
As mentioned in the synopsis, the southern-stream wave currently moving eastward across the TX Panhandle vicinity is forecast to continue eastward across the OK vicinity today. Cool mid-level temperatures will support weak elevated instability, with a few thunderstorms expected through the day and into the evening.
Scattered elevated thunderstorms are also expected over Deep South TX, as the southern end of the cold front undercuts a moist air mass near the Gulf. Weak shear and buoyancy should preclude a severe risk.
..Mosier/Moore.. 11/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Friday, November 6
Outlook Summary
A few strong to severe storms are possible Friday over parts of the eastern Carolinas and southeast Virginia.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 050644
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA
### SUMMARY
A few strong to severe storms are possible Friday over parts of the eastern Carolinas and southeast Virginia.
Discussion
An upper low will move slowly east across the Great Lakes with a leading speed max farther east into the Mid Atlantic. Moderate southwest winds and cooling aloft will overspread that region during day, with a surface trough developing from southern New England into the eastern Carolinas.
Ahead of a cold front, southwest low-level winds with 20-30 kt 850 mb speeds will maintain mid 60s F dewpoints from eastern VA southward. Heating will be limited as rain and storms are likely to be ongoing Friday morning from southern New England into Virginia. Increasing large scale ascent will further expand storm coverage by midday into the Carolinas.
A narrow plume of MLCAPE to 1000 J/kg is possible ahead of the ongoing activity/outflow, with effective shear of 35-40 kt. A few bowing structures may occur with locally damaging gust, or perhaps a brief tornado. However, the primary mitigating factor will be relatively poor low-level lapse rates.
..Jewell.. 11/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Saturday, November 7
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are unlikely on Saturday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 050814
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are unlikely on Saturday.
Synopsis
An upper low will move across the northeastern states on Saturday with another shortwave aloft diving southeastward across the upper MS Valley. This will support cool conditions as high pressure settles into the MS/OH Valleys, with offshore winds across the Gulf and Atlantic coasts. High pressure will also exist across the Great Basin, behind an upper low dropping southeastward into Mexico. As such, little if any instability will be present to support thunderstorms over land.
..Jewell.. 11/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Sunday, November 8
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, November 8 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, November 9 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, November 10 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, November 11 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050944 SPC AC 050944
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
Minimal thunderstorm potential is forecast across the CONUS through the period.
Scattered showers and few elevated thunderstorms may persist over far southern TX on Sun/D4 as a positive-tilt shortwave trough moves out of Mexico an into TX. Lapse rates will generally be poor, with marginal instability and moist profiles aided by east/southeast surface winds. Severe weather is not expected with this activity.
Otherwise, an active northern stream jet will bring progressive troughs east/southeastward across the northern Plains, Great Lakes and Northeast/Mid Atlantic, with reinforcing areas of high pressure maintaining stable conditions.
..Jewell.. 11/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, November 9
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, November 8 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, November 9 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, November 10 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, November 11 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050944 SPC AC 050944
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
Minimal thunderstorm potential is forecast across the CONUS through the period.
Scattered showers and few elevated thunderstorms may persist over far southern TX on Sun/D4 as a positive-tilt shortwave trough moves out of Mexico an into TX. Lapse rates will generally be poor, with marginal instability and moist profiles aided by east/southeast surface winds. Severe weather is not expected with this activity.
Otherwise, an active northern stream jet will bring progressive troughs east/southeastward across the northern Plains, Great Lakes and Northeast/Mid Atlantic, with reinforcing areas of high pressure maintaining stable conditions.
..Jewell.. 11/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, November 10
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, November 8 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, November 9 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, November 10 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, November 11 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050944 SPC AC 050944
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
Minimal thunderstorm potential is forecast across the CONUS through the period.
Scattered showers and few elevated thunderstorms may persist over far southern TX on Sun/D4 as a positive-tilt shortwave trough moves out of Mexico an into TX. Lapse rates will generally be poor, with marginal instability and moist profiles aided by east/southeast surface winds. Severe weather is not expected with this activity.
Otherwise, an active northern stream jet will bring progressive troughs east/southeastward across the northern Plains, Great Lakes and Northeast/Mid Atlantic, with reinforcing areas of high pressure maintaining stable conditions.
..Jewell.. 11/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, November 11
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, November 8 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, November 9 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, November 10 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, November 11 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050944 SPC AC 050944
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
Minimal thunderstorm potential is forecast across the CONUS through the period.
Scattered showers and few elevated thunderstorms may persist over far southern TX on Sun/D4 as a positive-tilt shortwave trough moves out of Mexico an into TX. Lapse rates will generally be poor, with marginal instability and moist profiles aided by east/southeast surface winds. Severe weather is not expected with this activity.
Otherwise, an active northern stream jet will bring progressive troughs east/southeastward across the northern Plains, Great Lakes and Northeast/Mid Atlantic, with reinforcing areas of high pressure maintaining stable conditions.
..Jewell.. 11/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, November 12
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, November 8 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, November 9 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, November 10 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, November 11 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050944 SPC AC 050944
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
Minimal thunderstorm potential is forecast across the CONUS through the period.
Scattered showers and few elevated thunderstorms may persist over far southern TX on Sun/D4 as a positive-tilt shortwave trough moves out of Mexico an into TX. Lapse rates will generally be poor, with marginal instability and moist profiles aided by east/southeast surface winds. Severe weather is not expected with this activity.
Otherwise, an active northern stream jet will bring progressive troughs east/southeastward across the northern Plains, Great Lakes and Northeast/Mid Atlantic, with reinforcing areas of high pressure maintaining stable conditions.
..Jewell.. 11/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, November 5
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Friday, November 6
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Saturday, November 7
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Sunday, November 8
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, November 9
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, November 10
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, November 11
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, November 12
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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