Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, February 2
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. through tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 030040
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 PM CST Mon Feb 02 2026
Valid 030100Z - 031200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. through tonight.
Synopsis
Mid-evening satellite imagery depicts a weak mid-level impulse moving across TX with modest moisture return ongoing into central TX. A cold front is noted in surface observations advancing south/southeastward across the Plains. This feature should impinge on the returning moisture across the Texarkana region between 9-12 UTC, and will promote a gradual increase in shallow convective showers. However, warm mid-level temperatures will prevent deep convection/thunderstorm development prior to 12 UTC. Elsewhere, cool and dry conditions will preclude thunderstorms.
..Moore.. 02/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Tuesday, February 3
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday or Tuesday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 021645
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CST Mon Feb 02 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday or Tuesday night.
East TX into the lower MS Valley
A large-scale mid/upper-level trough will cover most of the central/eastern CONUS on Tuesday. Multiple embedded low-amplitude shortwave troughs are expected to move across parts of the central/southern Plains, Midwest, and lower/mid MS Valleys. A weak surface low is forecast to move across the TN Valley vicinity, as a trailing cold front moves through parts of the southern Plains into the Mid-South and lower MS Valley.
Modest low-level moisture return (dewpoints in the mid 50s to near 60 F) is expected along/ahead of the front, though the strongest forcing will likely be displaced north and east of the more favorable moisture. Generally weak to modest lapse rates will limit buoyancy (with MLCAPE generally expected to remain below 500 J/kg), but convection may become sufficiently deep for isolated afternoon thunderstorm development near the front from parts of east TX into LA. Elevated convection may also develop into parts of the ArkLaMiss region. The weak buoyancy and very modest ascent across the warm sector are still expected to limit severe potential.
..Dean.. 02/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Wednesday, February 4
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorm potential appears low on Wednesday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 021842
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 PM CST Mon Feb 02 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorm potential appears low on Wednesday.
Synopsis
A large-scale, positive-tilt upper trough will cover much of the central/eastern CONUS on Wednesday. One embedded shortwave trough is forecast to move across parts of the Southeast and Gulf Coast vicinity, while another drops southward across the southern Plains. Weak convection will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning near a cold front from the FL Panhandle into parts of GA. This convection may continue through the day across parts of SC/GA and north FL, as the front advances southeastward. Buoyancy is expected to be quite weak, and forecast soundings suggest that convection will generally be too weak and low-topped for thunderstorm development. While very isolated lightning flashes cannot be ruled out, coverage currently appears too limited for any general thunderstorm areas.
..Dean.. 02/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Thursday, February 5
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, February 5 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, February 6 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, February 7 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, February 8 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, February 9 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020934 SPC AC 020934
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CST Mon Feb 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
DISCUSSION
Broad midlevel troughing will be maintained over the East, while an upper ridge persists over the Great Plains/Rockies through much of the extended forecast period. Farther west, medium-range guidance depicts a midlevel trough/low moving ashore over the West Coast on Day 5/Friday, before continuing eastward across the Southwest and eventually toward the southern Plains. Given the cut-off nature of this disturbance, guidance varies significantly regarding timing, evolution, and downstream moisture return over the southern Plains and lower MS Valley late in the period. Nevertheless, current indications are that the severe risk will remain low though much of the extended forecast period.
..Weinman.. 02/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, February 6
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, February 5 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, February 6 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, February 7 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, February 8 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, February 9 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020934 SPC AC 020934
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CST Mon Feb 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
DISCUSSION
Broad midlevel troughing will be maintained over the East, while an upper ridge persists over the Great Plains/Rockies through much of the extended forecast period. Farther west, medium-range guidance depicts a midlevel trough/low moving ashore over the West Coast on Day 5/Friday, before continuing eastward across the Southwest and eventually toward the southern Plains. Given the cut-off nature of this disturbance, guidance varies significantly regarding timing, evolution, and downstream moisture return over the southern Plains and lower MS Valley late in the period. Nevertheless, current indications are that the severe risk will remain low though much of the extended forecast period.
..Weinman.. 02/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, February 7
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, February 5 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, February 6 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, February 7 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, February 8 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, February 9 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020934 SPC AC 020934
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CST Mon Feb 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
DISCUSSION
Broad midlevel troughing will be maintained over the East, while an upper ridge persists over the Great Plains/Rockies through much of the extended forecast period. Farther west, medium-range guidance depicts a midlevel trough/low moving ashore over the West Coast on Day 5/Friday, before continuing eastward across the Southwest and eventually toward the southern Plains. Given the cut-off nature of this disturbance, guidance varies significantly regarding timing, evolution, and downstream moisture return over the southern Plains and lower MS Valley late in the period. Nevertheless, current indications are that the severe risk will remain low though much of the extended forecast period.
..Weinman.. 02/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, February 8
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, February 5 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, February 6 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, February 7 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, February 8 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, February 9 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020934 SPC AC 020934
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CST Mon Feb 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
DISCUSSION
Broad midlevel troughing will be maintained over the East, while an upper ridge persists over the Great Plains/Rockies through much of the extended forecast period. Farther west, medium-range guidance depicts a midlevel trough/low moving ashore over the West Coast on Day 5/Friday, before continuing eastward across the Southwest and eventually toward the southern Plains. Given the cut-off nature of this disturbance, guidance varies significantly regarding timing, evolution, and downstream moisture return over the southern Plains and lower MS Valley late in the period. Nevertheless, current indications are that the severe risk will remain low though much of the extended forecast period.
..Weinman.. 02/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, February 9
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, February 5 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, February 6 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, February 7 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, February 8 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, February 9 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020934 SPC AC 020934
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CST Mon Feb 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
DISCUSSION
Broad midlevel troughing will be maintained over the East, while an upper ridge persists over the Great Plains/Rockies through much of the extended forecast period. Farther west, medium-range guidance depicts a midlevel trough/low moving ashore over the West Coast on Day 5/Friday, before continuing eastward across the Southwest and eventually toward the southern Plains. Given the cut-off nature of this disturbance, guidance varies significantly regarding timing, evolution, and downstream moisture return over the southern Plains and lower MS Valley late in the period. Nevertheless, current indications are that the severe risk will remain low though much of the extended forecast period.
..Weinman.. 02/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, February 2
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, February 3
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Wednesday, February 4
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Thursday, February 5
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, February 6
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, February 7
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, February 8
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, February 9
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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