Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, October 1
Outlook Summary
Locally strong/gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado or two may occur this afternoon/early evening across parts of southern Kansas into northwest Oklahoma and vicinity.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 011628
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Thu Oct 01 2026
Valid 011630Z - 021200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
### SUMMARY
Locally strong/gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado or two may occur this afternoon/early evening across parts of southern Kansas into northwest Oklahoma and vicinity.
Southern Kansas/Northern Oklahoma
Recent surface analysis shows a weak low over northwest OK/the northeast TX Panhandle, with a front extending northeastward from this low across KS. A Pacific cold front also extends southward from this low over the southern Plains. Cloud cover remains prevalent over the warm sector across the southern/central Plains late this morning, aided by lift associated with a mid/upper-level trough/low centered over the southwest KS and the OK/TX Panhandles per latest water vapor satellite imagery. While not a classic setup for non-supercell tornadoes given modest low-level lapse rates and a progressive cold front, there may still be a window for a brief tornado or two this afternoon/early evening across parts of southern KS into northwest OK and vicinity.
This area should generally warm into the 70s per recent RAP/HRRR guidance, and even modest breaks in the cloud cover should support some steepening of low-level lapse rates in an otherwise vorticity-rich environment along/near both fronts. Current expectations are for cells to develop over southwest KS/northwest OK in the next couple of hours (by 18-20Z), with cool temperatures aloft (around -10 to -11 C at 500 mb) aiding updraft strength in an otherwise weak deep-layer shear environment. Small hail, strong to locally severe winds, and perhaps a brief tornado could occur with this activity until the southeastward-advancing cold front undercuts convection by late afternoon/early evening.
Texas/ArkLaTex into the Mid Mississippi Valley/Midwest
Ongoing convection across central/north-central TX has remained sub-severe through the morning. A rather moist low-level airmass characterized by generally mid to upper 70s surface dewpoints is present across east/coastal TX ahead of these thunderstorms. While lapse rates aloft will remain poor (reference 12Z observed soundings from FWD/DRT), some increase in instability is anticipated downstream this afternoon with continued daytime heating. South-southwesterly low/mid-level flow will continue to gradually diminish through the day as the primary mid/upper-level trough ejects northeastward across the southern/central Plains through this evening. This will limit the degree of deep-layer shear available to support organized updrafts and overall severe potential across the ArkLaTex into east/south TX. That said, gusty winds may still occur on a localized basis as convection spreads eastward across these areas through the afternoon/evening.
Modestly enhanced mid-level flow and greater deep-layer shear will be present this afternoon farther north into the mid MS Valley/Midwest, as multiple subtle mid-level vorticity maxima spread northeastward over these regions. However, both boundary-layer instability and lapse rates aloft are forecast to remain rather weak, which should limit updraft strength and overall severe potential with northward extent across these areas.
..Gleason/Chalmers.. 10/01/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Friday, October 2
Outlook Summary
No severe thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. on Friday or Friday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 011654
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CDT Thu Oct 01 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
No severe thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. on Friday or Friday night.
Discussion
An energetic polar branch of westerlies will exist over the northern CONUS, featuring a low-amplitude trough progressing from the Great Lakes into the Northeast, and an upstream system moving through the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. At lower latitudes, a positively tilted trough initially from the lower MO Valley into the southern High Plains will become increasingly cut off from the higher-momentum flow to the north. At the surface, a cold front initially from the lower Great Lakes through the confluence of the MS and OH Rivers into the southern Plains will advance south, reaching the southern Mid-Atlantic through the TN Valley to the TX Coast by 12Z Saturday.
A broken band of showers and thunderstorms is expected to be ongoing along a substantial portion of the cold front Friday morning. A subset of the early-day precipitation is likely to linger into the afternoon, limiting air mass destabilization in those areas. Where stronger heating can occur, the presence of a moist boundary layer will yield corridors of moderate instability, which in turn will support an increase in storm coverage through the diurnal heating cycle. Poor mid-level lapse rates and generally weak vertical shear are expected to limit severe weather potential at locations that experience thunderstorms. A possible exception is from southern New England into the Mid-Atlantic Friday afternoon, where stronger deep-layer shear is forecast to overlie the frontal zone. There, forecast soundings indicate warm mid-level temperatures, which are likely to temper updraft intensity and depth (and perhaps even lightning production). On the condition that sufficient instability develops to sustain surface-based storms, locally gusty winds appear possible owing to the downward transfer of stronger flow aloft.
..Mead.. 10/01/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Saturday, October 3
Outlook Summary
No severe thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. on Saturday and Saturday night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 010725
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Thu Oct 01 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
No severe thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. on Saturday and Saturday night.
DISCUSSION
At mid-levels, zonal westerly flow will develop on Saturday from the northern Plains into the Northeast. In the southern U.S., mid-flow aloft will remain west-southwesterly. At the surface, a slow-moving front will remain located across the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. To the south of the front, weak instability is expected by afternoon over much of the Southeast. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible in areas where low-level convergence becomes focused. Deep-layer shear will be relatively weak across this moist airmass, limiting any severe potential.
..Broyles.. 10/01/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Sunday, October 4
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, October 4 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, October 5 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, October 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, October 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, October 8 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010900 SPC AC 010900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Oct 01 2026
Valid 041200Z - 091200Z
DISCUSSION
Early next week, a large-scale upper-level trough will move from the Great Lakes region into the western Atlantic, as mid-level flow become west-northwesterly over much of the nation. At the surface, a large surface high will be dominant on Sunday and Monday from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast.
Further west into the Great Plains, a cold front is forecast to advance southeastward through the Dakotas on Tuesday. Ahead of the front, moisture advection is expected over the Great Plains. By Tuesday afternoon, an axis of instability should be in place from western Kansas into north-central Nebraska. Along and near the instability axis, an isolated severe threat will be possible from late afternoon into the evening. On Wednesday, the axis of instability is forecast to shift southeastward into the mid Missouri Valley. An isolated severe threat will again be possible near and ahead of the front from late afternoon into the evening.
By Thursday, model forecasts move an upper-level trough into the Great Lakes, as a subtle shortwave ridge moves through the central U.S. A relatively dry and cool airmass over much of the U.S. is expected to make thunderstorm development unlikely in most areas.
..Broyles.. 10/01/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, October 5
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, October 4 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, October 5 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, October 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, October 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, October 8 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010900 SPC AC 010900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Oct 01 2026
Valid 041200Z - 091200Z
DISCUSSION
Early next week, a large-scale upper-level trough will move from the Great Lakes region into the western Atlantic, as mid-level flow become west-northwesterly over much of the nation. At the surface, a large surface high will be dominant on Sunday and Monday from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast.
Further west into the Great Plains, a cold front is forecast to advance southeastward through the Dakotas on Tuesday. Ahead of the front, moisture advection is expected over the Great Plains. By Tuesday afternoon, an axis of instability should be in place from western Kansas into north-central Nebraska. Along and near the instability axis, an isolated severe threat will be possible from late afternoon into the evening. On Wednesday, the axis of instability is forecast to shift southeastward into the mid Missouri Valley. An isolated severe threat will again be possible near and ahead of the front from late afternoon into the evening.
By Thursday, model forecasts move an upper-level trough into the Great Lakes, as a subtle shortwave ridge moves through the central U.S. A relatively dry and cool airmass over much of the U.S. is expected to make thunderstorm development unlikely in most areas.
..Broyles.. 10/01/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, October 6
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, October 4 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, October 5 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, October 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, October 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, October 8 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010900 SPC AC 010900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Oct 01 2026
Valid 041200Z - 091200Z
DISCUSSION
Early next week, a large-scale upper-level trough will move from the Great Lakes region into the western Atlantic, as mid-level flow become west-northwesterly over much of the nation. At the surface, a large surface high will be dominant on Sunday and Monday from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast.
Further west into the Great Plains, a cold front is forecast to advance southeastward through the Dakotas on Tuesday. Ahead of the front, moisture advection is expected over the Great Plains. By Tuesday afternoon, an axis of instability should be in place from western Kansas into north-central Nebraska. Along and near the instability axis, an isolated severe threat will be possible from late afternoon into the evening. On Wednesday, the axis of instability is forecast to shift southeastward into the mid Missouri Valley. An isolated severe threat will again be possible near and ahead of the front from late afternoon into the evening.
By Thursday, model forecasts move an upper-level trough into the Great Lakes, as a subtle shortwave ridge moves through the central U.S. A relatively dry and cool airmass over much of the U.S. is expected to make thunderstorm development unlikely in most areas.
..Broyles.. 10/01/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, October 7
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, October 4 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, October 5 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, October 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, October 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, October 8 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010900 SPC AC 010900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Oct 01 2026
Valid 041200Z - 091200Z
DISCUSSION
Early next week, a large-scale upper-level trough will move from the Great Lakes region into the western Atlantic, as mid-level flow become west-northwesterly over much of the nation. At the surface, a large surface high will be dominant on Sunday and Monday from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast.
Further west into the Great Plains, a cold front is forecast to advance southeastward through the Dakotas on Tuesday. Ahead of the front, moisture advection is expected over the Great Plains. By Tuesday afternoon, an axis of instability should be in place from western Kansas into north-central Nebraska. Along and near the instability axis, an isolated severe threat will be possible from late afternoon into the evening. On Wednesday, the axis of instability is forecast to shift southeastward into the mid Missouri Valley. An isolated severe threat will again be possible near and ahead of the front from late afternoon into the evening.
By Thursday, model forecasts move an upper-level trough into the Great Lakes, as a subtle shortwave ridge moves through the central U.S. A relatively dry and cool airmass over much of the U.S. is expected to make thunderstorm development unlikely in most areas.
..Broyles.. 10/01/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, October 8
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, October 4 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, October 5 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, October 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, October 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, October 8 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010900 SPC AC 010900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Oct 01 2026
Valid 041200Z - 091200Z
DISCUSSION
Early next week, a large-scale upper-level trough will move from the Great Lakes region into the western Atlantic, as mid-level flow become west-northwesterly over much of the nation. At the surface, a large surface high will be dominant on Sunday and Monday from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast.
Further west into the Great Plains, a cold front is forecast to advance southeastward through the Dakotas on Tuesday. Ahead of the front, moisture advection is expected over the Great Plains. By Tuesday afternoon, an axis of instability should be in place from western Kansas into north-central Nebraska. Along and near the instability axis, an isolated severe threat will be possible from late afternoon into the evening. On Wednesday, the axis of instability is forecast to shift southeastward into the mid Missouri Valley. An isolated severe threat will again be possible near and ahead of the front from late afternoon into the evening.
By Thursday, model forecasts move an upper-level trough into the Great Lakes, as a subtle shortwave ridge moves through the central U.S. A relatively dry and cool airmass over much of the U.S. is expected to make thunderstorm development unlikely in most areas.
..Broyles.. 10/01/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, October 1
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Friday, October 2
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Saturday, October 3
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Sunday, October 4
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, October 5
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, October 6
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, October 7
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, October 8
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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