Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Tuesday, June 23

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing 2+ inch diameter hail, 75+ mph gusts, and isolated tornadoes are expected from the central High Plains into parts of the southern Plains through tonight. Other severe thunderstorms are expected across southeast Virginia and eastern North Carolina, as well across the Upper Midwest.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 232007

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Valid 232000Z - 241200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND COLORADO FRONT RANGE

### THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS…MID-ATLANTIC STATES…AND UPPER MIDWEST

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing 2+ inch diameter hail, 75+ mph gusts, and isolated tornadoes are expected from the central High Plains into parts of the southern Plains through tonight. Other severe thunderstorms are expected across southeast Virginia and eastern North Carolina, as well across the Upper Midwest.

20Z Update

The primary change with this update was a westward expansion of severe probabilities (including the ENH) toward the higher terrain in southern/central CO. Rich boundary-layer moisture (middle/upper 60s dewpoints) along the western edge of convectively reinforced outflow in the central High Plains will spread westward beneath steep midlevel lapse rates toward the higher terrain through this afternoon into tonight – in response to a passing midlevel wave to the north. This rich moisture/outflow and enhanced easterly upslope flow should support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms along the higher terrain into this evening. Around 50 kt of effective shear and strong surface-based buoyancy will promote supercells capable of producing very large hail along the I-25 corridor.

Elsewhere, only minor modifications were made to the outlook, to include trimming severe probabilities behind eastward-spreading convection in the Mid-Atlantic, and a southward expansion of probabilities in the southern Plains (ahead of southward-moving thunderstorm clusters).

..Weinman.. 06/23/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026/

Southern Plains and Central High Plains

Complex scenario exist with multiple iterations of convective clusters ongoing regionally at midday, including a relatively more intense/focused cluster near the southwest Oklahoma and eastern Texas Panhandle border vicinity. These storms are likely to persist generally south-southeastward today, and potentially grow upscale with continued wind/hail potential, but details are complicated by prevalent outflow/cloud debris etc. Additional development may occur later today into tonight on the west-northwest fringe of these early day storms/residual outflows and near the front/east of the surface low, which could bring about a renewed severe potential mainly in the form of large hail and damaging winds. However, recent HRRR runs (14z/15z) have notably trended much more limited with this late-day/evening redevelopment scenario.

Farther west/north, weak low-level upslope flow and a small-scale mid-level perturbation embedded within the westerly flow aloft should encourage at least isolated convective development across southeast Wyoming into eastern Colorado by late afternoon, and more so, into early/mid evening. A conditionally favorable environment for very large hail will exist across the central High Plains this afternoon into tonight. Any thunderstorms that can develop will likely become severe given strong deep-layer shear, the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, and moderate to locally strong instability. Even though low-level flow and shear will remain modest this evening across the central High Plains, a tornado may still occur with any sustained supercell.

Southeast Virginia/Eastern North Carolina

Within large-scale upper troughing over the eastern CONUS/Canada, an embedded mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward today across the Carolinas and southern Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front will also develop eastward across these areas through the afternoon. Thunderstorms will increase through early/mid afternoon along and ahead of the front. While lapse rates aloft will remain poor, sufficient instability will exist with daytime heating to support surface-based convection. A generally linear/cluster mode is anticipated given the frontal forcing, with modestly enhanced and increasing low/mid-level flow and related shear supporting thunderstorm organization. Scattered damaging winds appear to be the main threat with this activity as it spreads eastward through the afternoon, with the greatest concentration forecast across parts of southeast Virginia and eastern North Carolina. A brief tornado or two may also occur.

Northern Plains/Upper Midwest

A closed mid-level low over south-central Canada this morning will move slowly eastward today. A belt of enhanced (40-50 kt) westerly mid-level winds will overspread parts of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest to the south of this low. At the surface, a cold front in the process of occluding is located over the Dakotas. Thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along/east of this boundary across parts of the eastern Dakotas into western Minnesota. Given sufficient deep-layer shear and instability, some of this activity is expected to pose a severe hail/wind risk, along with the potential for a couple of tornadoes in immediate proximity of the surface boundary where low-level CAPE/shear will be maximized.

Coastal Southeast

Isolated severe thunderstorms mainly capable of downbursts/wind damage will be possible this afternoon within a moist and unstable airmass for areas including far southern Georgia and northern Florida.

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Outlook for Wednesday, June 24

Outlook Summary

Widely scattered severe storms are possible across the central High Plains on Wednesday with a threat for large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. More isolated severe storms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest, Ozarks to Mississippi, and across northern Utah.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 231742

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS

CORRECTED FOR TEXT

SUMMARY

Widely scattered severe storms are possible across the central High Plains on Wednesday with a threat for large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. More isolated severe storms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest, Ozarks to Mississippi, and across northern Utah.

Synopsis

Strengthening westerly flow aloft in association with a mid-level wave moving out of Saskatchewan/Manitoba will overspread the central Rockies on D2/Wednesday. A surface low will be located across northern Wisconsin drifting eastward with a cold front extending southward into the central high Plains. Lee cyclogenesis is progged late in the period across eastern Colorado/western Kansas in response to the increased westerly flow across the central Rockies.

Widely scattered severe storms are expected to form across the high terrain in the central/southern High Plains before moving into the central/southern Plains by the evening. More isolated severe storms are possible near the surface low in Wisconsin, across portion of the Ozarks to Mississippi, and northern Utah.

Central/Southern High Plains into the Ozarks

Moderate instability will overlap strong deep layer shear within the upslope flow across eastern Colorado into southeastern Wyoming Wednesday afternoon. This will support initial supercell modes with development into the afternoon. Easterly surface flow becoming westerly aloft will support veering wind profiles and low-level curvature of hodographs. Large to very large hail and perhaps a tornado will be possible before storms begin to cluster. Damaging wind potential will then increase as storms consolidate along outflow and spread eastwards. The Slight was shifted further eastward into the Nebraska Panhandle to account for this downstream potential.

Eastern Arkansas into Mississippi

Confidence in the evolution of overnight convection across portions of Oklahoma Tuesday night is decreasing. It remains possible that an MCS will be ongoing towards the beginning of the D2/Wednesday period shifting eastward into portions of Arkansas by day break. It is possible that should this occur, some re intensification could be ongoing across portions of eastern Arkansas into Mississippi. For now, a Marginal Risk was maintained across this area for potential for damaging winds pending further details on the evolution of convection overnight.

Upper Great Lakes

Filtered daytime heating through breaks in the clouds should allow for moderate instability to develop near the surface low across portions of the western Great Lakes. Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon in the vicinity of the surface low and frontal boundary, and within the belt of stronger mid-level flow, suggesting some potential for large hail with the strongest updrafts.

Northern Utah

A weak mid-level shortwave trough will move across northern Utah during the day on Wednesday, with weak to moderate instability progged by the afternoon. Forecast soundings show a deeply-mixed sub-cloud layer which will support potential thunderstorms capable of damaging winds.

..Thornton.. 06/23/2026

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Outlook for Thursday, June 25

Outlook Summary

Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across portions of the central/northern High Plains with a threat for large to very large hail and severe wind, and perhaps a tornado or two for portions of northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas into the Ozarks on Thursday.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 231931

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA/SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO THE OZARKS

### SUMMARY

Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across portions of the central/northern High Plains with a threat for large to very large hail and severe wind, and perhaps a tornado or two for portions of northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas into the Ozarks on Thursday.

Synopsis

Embedded waves within a predominately zonal flow pattern and broad westerly flow aloft will extend across the central Rockies into the central/southern Plains on D3/Thursday. At the surface, a low will deepen and shift eastward across western Texas into eastern Oklahoma with attendant frontal boundary extending eastward across northern Oklahoma into the Missouri and Ohio Valley.

Northern Oklahoma/southern Kansas into the Ozarks

Thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing at the start of the period across portions of southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma as a shortwave trough rotates through the pattern. Afternoon thunderstorm development will focus along the residual outflow/frontal boundary. Guidance suggests that though residual cloud cover may remain behind the morning convection, strong heating/destabilization should occur near the two boundaries into the afternoon. Strong deep layer shear around 40-50 kts should support supercell modes with potential for large to very large hail and damaging wind. With the deepening of the surface low, a southwesterly low-level jet will increase to around 40-50 kts into the afternoon/evening, which will enlarge low-level hodographs and lead to increasing tornado potential. There remains some uncertainty in the exact axis and strength of the low-level jet at this time.

Central/Northern High Plains

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop with the combination of easterly upslope flow and upper-level forcing for ascent across portions of eastern Wyoming/Colorado. Moderate instability and strong deep layer shear will support supercells capable of large to very large hail and damaging wind. Storms will eventually cluster and move eastward, with potential for a few instances of damaging wind into western NE/KS.

..Thornton.. 06/23/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Friday, June 26

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Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230847 SPC AC 230847

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Valid 261200Z - 011200Z

DISCUSSION

D5/Saturday - Northern Plains

A strong mid-level trough will move into the Northwest on Saturday with strong mid-level flow extending around the base of this trough. The leading edge of this stronger mid-level flow will emerge over the northern Plains on Saturday with a lee cyclone forecast near the MT/SD/WY border. Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop as mid to upper 60s dewpoints advect northward. Strong to severe storms appear likely during the afternoon and evening as the lead shortwave trough emerges and the low-level jet strengthens. There is still some uncertainty with the location/timing of the lead shortwave trough which may require some shifting of the probabilities at a later time. However, confidence in severe weather in the general region is high enough to add 15 percent probabilities.

D6/Sunday - Northern Plains Vicinity

On Sunday, as the primary jet streak emerges across the northern Plains, severe weather will also be possible across North Dakota and vicinity. However, the evolution of the upper trough/jet streak is a bit more uncertain and therefore, the area with this greater concern is less clear. Eventual severe weather probabilities seem likely, but will not be added until guidance comes into better agreement regarding the upper-level pattern.

D7/Monday - Upper Midwest

As the mid-level trough shifts east on Monday, the stronger mid-level flow may overspread an unstable warm sector across parts of the Upper Midwest. Considerable uncertainty regarding the upper trough evolution and position of the surface features preclude inclusion of probabilities at this time.

..Bentley.. 06/23/2026

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Outlook for Saturday, June 27

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Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230847 SPC AC 230847

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Valid 261200Z - 011200Z

DISCUSSION

D5/Saturday - Northern Plains

A strong mid-level trough will move into the Northwest on Saturday with strong mid-level flow extending around the base of this trough. The leading edge of this stronger mid-level flow will emerge over the northern Plains on Saturday with a lee cyclone forecast near the MT/SD/WY border. Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop as mid to upper 60s dewpoints advect northward. Strong to severe storms appear likely during the afternoon and evening as the lead shortwave trough emerges and the low-level jet strengthens. There is still some uncertainty with the location/timing of the lead shortwave trough which may require some shifting of the probabilities at a later time. However, confidence in severe weather in the general region is high enough to add 15 percent probabilities.

D6/Sunday - Northern Plains Vicinity

On Sunday, as the primary jet streak emerges across the northern Plains, severe weather will also be possible across North Dakota and vicinity. However, the evolution of the upper trough/jet streak is a bit more uncertain and therefore, the area with this greater concern is less clear. Eventual severe weather probabilities seem likely, but will not be added until guidance comes into better agreement regarding the upper-level pattern.

D7/Monday - Upper Midwest

As the mid-level trough shifts east on Monday, the stronger mid-level flow may overspread an unstable warm sector across parts of the Upper Midwest. Considerable uncertainty regarding the upper trough evolution and position of the surface features preclude inclusion of probabilities at this time.

..Bentley.. 06/23/2026

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Outlook for Sunday, June 28

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Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230847 SPC AC 230847

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Valid 261200Z - 011200Z

DISCUSSION

D5/Saturday - Northern Plains

A strong mid-level trough will move into the Northwest on Saturday with strong mid-level flow extending around the base of this trough. The leading edge of this stronger mid-level flow will emerge over the northern Plains on Saturday with a lee cyclone forecast near the MT/SD/WY border. Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop as mid to upper 60s dewpoints advect northward. Strong to severe storms appear likely during the afternoon and evening as the lead shortwave trough emerges and the low-level jet strengthens. There is still some uncertainty with the location/timing of the lead shortwave trough which may require some shifting of the probabilities at a later time. However, confidence in severe weather in the general region is high enough to add 15 percent probabilities.

D6/Sunday - Northern Plains Vicinity

On Sunday, as the primary jet streak emerges across the northern Plains, severe weather will also be possible across North Dakota and vicinity. However, the evolution of the upper trough/jet streak is a bit more uncertain and therefore, the area with this greater concern is less clear. Eventual severe weather probabilities seem likely, but will not be added until guidance comes into better agreement regarding the upper-level pattern.

D7/Monday - Upper Midwest

As the mid-level trough shifts east on Monday, the stronger mid-level flow may overspread an unstable warm sector across parts of the Upper Midwest. Considerable uncertainty regarding the upper trough evolution and position of the surface features preclude inclusion of probabilities at this time.

..Bentley.. 06/23/2026

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Outlook for Monday, June 29

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Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230847 SPC AC 230847

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Valid 261200Z - 011200Z

DISCUSSION

D5/Saturday - Northern Plains

A strong mid-level trough will move into the Northwest on Saturday with strong mid-level flow extending around the base of this trough. The leading edge of this stronger mid-level flow will emerge over the northern Plains on Saturday with a lee cyclone forecast near the MT/SD/WY border. Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop as mid to upper 60s dewpoints advect northward. Strong to severe storms appear likely during the afternoon and evening as the lead shortwave trough emerges and the low-level jet strengthens. There is still some uncertainty with the location/timing of the lead shortwave trough which may require some shifting of the probabilities at a later time. However, confidence in severe weather in the general region is high enough to add 15 percent probabilities.

D6/Sunday - Northern Plains Vicinity

On Sunday, as the primary jet streak emerges across the northern Plains, severe weather will also be possible across North Dakota and vicinity. However, the evolution of the upper trough/jet streak is a bit more uncertain and therefore, the area with this greater concern is less clear. Eventual severe weather probabilities seem likely, but will not be added until guidance comes into better agreement regarding the upper-level pattern.

D7/Monday - Upper Midwest

As the mid-level trough shifts east on Monday, the stronger mid-level flow may overspread an unstable warm sector across parts of the Upper Midwest. Considerable uncertainty regarding the upper trough evolution and position of the surface features preclude inclusion of probabilities at this time.

..Bentley.. 06/23/2026

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Outlook for Tuesday, June 30

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230847 SPC AC 230847

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Valid 261200Z - 011200Z

DISCUSSION

D5/Saturday - Northern Plains

A strong mid-level trough will move into the Northwest on Saturday with strong mid-level flow extending around the base of this trough. The leading edge of this stronger mid-level flow will emerge over the northern Plains on Saturday with a lee cyclone forecast near the MT/SD/WY border. Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop as mid to upper 60s dewpoints advect northward. Strong to severe storms appear likely during the afternoon and evening as the lead shortwave trough emerges and the low-level jet strengthens. There is still some uncertainty with the location/timing of the lead shortwave trough which may require some shifting of the probabilities at a later time. However, confidence in severe weather in the general region is high enough to add 15 percent probabilities.

D6/Sunday - Northern Plains Vicinity

On Sunday, as the primary jet streak emerges across the northern Plains, severe weather will also be possible across North Dakota and vicinity. However, the evolution of the upper trough/jet streak is a bit more uncertain and therefore, the area with this greater concern is less clear. Eventual severe weather probabilities seem likely, but will not be added until guidance comes into better agreement regarding the upper-level pattern.

D7/Monday - Upper Midwest

As the mid-level trough shifts east on Monday, the stronger mid-level flow may overspread an unstable warm sector across parts of the Upper Midwest. Considerable uncertainty regarding the upper trough evolution and position of the surface features preclude inclusion of probabilities at this time.

..Bentley.. 06/23/2026

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National Risk Overview

Tuesday, June 23

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 30%

WIND: 30%

Wednesday, June 24

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Thursday, June 25

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Friday, June 26

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Saturday, June 27

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Sunday, June 28

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Monday, June 29

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Tuesday, June 30

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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