Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, November 8
Outlook Summary
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of south Texas. Isolated damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado appear possible.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 081614
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1014 AM CST Sun Nov 08 2026
Valid 081630Z - 091200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ALONG THE MIDDLE-LOWER TEXAS COAST
### SUMMARY
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of south Texas. Isolated damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado appear possible.
Middle-lower TX coast today
A midlevel low over northern Mexico will drift slowly eastward and weaken through the period. At the surface, a baroclinic zone along the middle-lower TX coast will provide a focus for thunderstorms rooted at the surface, where boundary-layer dewpoints will remain near 70 F. Per the 12z observed soundings/VWPs/model forecasts, deep-layer vertical shear will remain sufficient for some embedded rotating storms, with the relatively stronger low-level shear/hodograph curvature expected along the north edge of the surface-based buoyancy with a small MCV just south of CRP. Poor midlevel lapse rates will temper the overall severe threat, though an isolated, weak tornado and/or localized wind damage will be possible with embedded circulations today.
Otherwise, elevated thunderstorms will remain possible from the Edwards Plateau into interior south TX in a moist environment with ascent and weak buoyancy atop the cooler near-surface air mass.
Pacific Northwest and the lower Great Lakes
The potential for isolated lightning flashes with low-topped convection will diminish across northwest WA by about midday as a midlevel trough moves inland and height rises ensue. A separate midlevel trough will continue southeastward over the lower Great Lakes by this evening into early tonight. Cooling midlevel temperatures and weak buoyancy aided by the relatively warm lakes will support convection that could become sufficiently deep to support charge separation and isolated lightning flashes.
..Thompson/Barnes.. 11/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Monday, November 9
Outlook Summary
There appears little risk for severe thunderstorm activity across the U.S. Monday through Monday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 081639
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1039 AM CST Sun Nov 08 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
There appears little risk for severe thunderstorm activity across the U.S. Monday through Monday night.
Discussion
Models continue to indicate that a strong, initially zonal, mid/upper jet across the mid-latitude Pacific will undergo amplification Monday through Monday night. As this occurs, split downstream flow, across and inland of the Pacific coast, may trend more confluent east of the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard. Within an evolving branch across the subtropical latitudes, it appears that a remnant cyclonic mid-level circulation will continue to become increasingly sheared across and east-northeast of the Texas Big Bend vicinity. Upstream, one or two short wave perturbations emerging from the mid-latitude eastern Pacific are also forecast to undergo considerable deformation, while progressing inland within generally building larger-scale mid-level ridging.
Southern Texas
Recent runs of the Rapid Refresh and High-Resolution Rapid Refresh support previous other model output indicating that potential for occasional scattered thunderstorm development will continue into this period. It appears that this will still be largely supported by forcing for ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, downstream of the weakening mid-level perturbation into Monday afternoon, before tending to diminish by Monday evening.
Pacific Northwest
REFS, and now GEFS, calibrated thunderstorm guidance continue to indicate at least low probabilities for convection capable of producing lightning across and inland of the Oregon coast into Cascades by late Monday afternoon. This would likely accompany destabilization beneath an inland progressing thermal trough, in the presence of strengthening and moistening low-level onshore flow. However, coldest mid-level temperatures (including -18 to -22 C around 500 mb) overspreading the Pacific Northwest are forecast to remain rather modest in magnitude, and it remains unclear in forecast soundings the extent to which thermodynamic profiles will become supportive of lightning discharge. At this point, thunderstorm probabilities still appear less than 10 percent, with any convection that becomes capable of producing lightning brief in nature and rather sparse in coverage.
..Kerr.. 11/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Tuesday, November 10
Outlook Summary
No severe threat is forecast across the U.S. Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 080822
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CST Sun Nov 08 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
No severe threat is forecast across the U.S. Tuesday and Tuesday night.
DISCUSSION
At mid-levels, a shortwave trough will move across the north-central U.S. on Tuesday, as west-northwesterly flow remains in place over much of the central and eastern U.S. A shortwave trough will also move eastward in the vicinity of the western Gulf Coast. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible within a moist airmass from south Texas to the middle Texas Coast on Tuesday. No severe threat is expected, and thunderstorms are not forecast across the remainder of the continental U.S. Tuesday and Tuesday night.
..Broyles.. 11/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Wednesday, November 11
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, November 11 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, November 13 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, November 14 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, November 15 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080945 SPC AC 080945
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Sun Nov 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
During the Day 4 to 8 period, a cyclonic mid-level flow pattern will be in place over the eastern U.S, with a series of shortwave troughs moving through the large-scale trough. Ahead of this feature, thunderstorm development will be possible in the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Wednesday, and in parts of the central Appalachians on Thursday. Further west, an upper-level ridge will move slowly eastward across the western and central U.S. At the surface, high pressure is forecast to settle into the Gulf Coast states from Friday to Sunday, limiting thunderstorm potential across the majority of the nation.
..Broyles.. 11/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, November 12
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, November 11 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, November 13 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, November 14 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, November 15 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080945 SPC AC 080945
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Sun Nov 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
During the Day 4 to 8 period, a cyclonic mid-level flow pattern will be in place over the eastern U.S, with a series of shortwave troughs moving through the large-scale trough. Ahead of this feature, thunderstorm development will be possible in the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Wednesday, and in parts of the central Appalachians on Thursday. Further west, an upper-level ridge will move slowly eastward across the western and central U.S. At the surface, high pressure is forecast to settle into the Gulf Coast states from Friday to Sunday, limiting thunderstorm potential across the majority of the nation.
..Broyles.. 11/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, November 13
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, November 11 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, November 13 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, November 14 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, November 15 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080945 SPC AC 080945
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Sun Nov 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
During the Day 4 to 8 period, a cyclonic mid-level flow pattern will be in place over the eastern U.S, with a series of shortwave troughs moving through the large-scale trough. Ahead of this feature, thunderstorm development will be possible in the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Wednesday, and in parts of the central Appalachians on Thursday. Further west, an upper-level ridge will move slowly eastward across the western and central U.S. At the surface, high pressure is forecast to settle into the Gulf Coast states from Friday to Sunday, limiting thunderstorm potential across the majority of the nation.
..Broyles.. 11/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, November 14
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, November 11 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, November 13 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, November 14 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, November 15 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080945 SPC AC 080945
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Sun Nov 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
During the Day 4 to 8 period, a cyclonic mid-level flow pattern will be in place over the eastern U.S, with a series of shortwave troughs moving through the large-scale trough. Ahead of this feature, thunderstorm development will be possible in the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Wednesday, and in parts of the central Appalachians on Thursday. Further west, an upper-level ridge will move slowly eastward across the western and central U.S. At the surface, high pressure is forecast to settle into the Gulf Coast states from Friday to Sunday, limiting thunderstorm potential across the majority of the nation.
..Broyles.. 11/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, November 15
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, November 11 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, November 13 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, November 14 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, November 15 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080945 SPC AC 080945
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Sun Nov 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
During the Day 4 to 8 period, a cyclonic mid-level flow pattern will be in place over the eastern U.S, with a series of shortwave troughs moving through the large-scale trough. Ahead of this feature, thunderstorm development will be possible in the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Wednesday, and in parts of the central Appalachians on Thursday. Further west, an upper-level ridge will move slowly eastward across the western and central U.S. At the surface, high pressure is forecast to settle into the Gulf Coast states from Friday to Sunday, limiting thunderstorm potential across the majority of the nation.
..Broyles.. 11/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, November 8
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Monday, November 9
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, November 10
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Wednesday, November 11
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, November 12
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, November 13
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, November 14
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, November 15
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Your Severe Outlook
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