Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, August 23
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms capable of large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts will continue this evening across eastern Montana and the western Dakotas, with other severe storms capable of wind gusts across the Great Basin.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 240102
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026
Valid 240100Z - 241200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND GREAT BASIN
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms capable of large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts will continue this evening across eastern Montana and the western Dakotas, with other severe storms capable of wind gusts across the Great Basin.
01z Update
Primary severe-weather corridor this evening will persist across east/northeast Montana to portions of the western Dakotas, but likely on a more marginal/isolated basis by the overnight.
Other wind-producing storms will remain a possibility over the next couple of hours in areas such as northern Utah/far southeast Idaho, as well as southern Arizona.
A couple of severe storms will remain a possibility this evening across northeast Ohio into northwest Pennsylvania. See Mesoscale Discussion 2108 for additional details.
Later tonight, a modest increase in isentropic ascent associated with a south-southwesterly low-level jet may aid thunderstorm development late tonight and early Monday morning across parts of northeast Oklahoma and southeast Kansas to the Ozarks. Overall instability is expected to remain fairly weak (MUCAPE generally less than 1000 J/kg), but some clustering may occur with a low chance for localized severe wind gusts.
..Guyer.. 08/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Monday, August 24
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms producing scattered severe gusts appear likely across the central High Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley tomorrow (Monday). Isolated severe thunderstorms, posing mainly a damaging/severe gust or sparse hail threat, may also occur across parts of the Northern Great Basin into the southern High Plains, the Gulf to Carolina Coastline, and Maine.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 231728
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms producing scattered severe gusts appear likely across the central High Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley tomorrow (Monday). Isolated severe thunderstorms, posing mainly a damaging/severe gust or sparse hail threat, may also occur across parts of the Northern Great Basin into the southern High Plains, the Gulf to Carolina Coastline, and Maine.
Synopsis
Upper ridging will persist across the western and central U.S. as an upper trough is poised to traverse the Northeast and impinge on the Atlantic tomorrow (Monday). A pronounced mid-level shortwave trough will crest the ridge and eject into the northern Plains by tomorrow afternoon, encouraging surface lee troughing along the central High Plains to the U.S./Canada border. Adequate low-level moisture advection northward across the Plains, beneath seasonably cooler temperatures aloft, in conjunction with stronger mid-level flow (and thus vertical wind shear), will encourage strong to severe thunderstorm potential over the northern Plains. Meanwhile, some severe threat may exist with storms across the northern Great Basin, Maine, and parts of the Gulf coastline.
Northern Plains to the central High Plains
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected develop ahead of a surface lee trough from the Canadian border to the southern High Plains tomorrow afternoon. Mid to upper flow will be strongest across the northern High Plains into the northern Plains, where 30-40 kts of westerly 500 mb flow will support similar values of effective bulk shear. The latest high-resolution guidance consensus depicts a higher density cluster of multicells and perhaps supercells developing somewhere around the Black Hills of SD and propagating south-southeastward into NE. Given merging cold pools, scattered severe gusts are possible, along with a couple instances of severe hail. Closer to the Canadian border, convective coverage is less certain, though 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and modestly curved/elongated forecast hodographs suggest supercell potential exists in this area. An upgrade to a Slight Risk may be needed pending guidance trends involving greater storm coverage.
Tropospheric flow across the southern to central High Plains will be weaker compared to points farther north. However, the presence of a dry boundary layer extending upward to at least 700 mb, amid 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE, should support some risk for dry downbursts with the stronger storm cores, perhaps accompanied by an isolated severe gust threat.
Portions of the northern Great Basin to the central Rockies
By afternoon peak heating, scattered high-based thunderstorms should develop amid classic inverted-V profiles. Since these storms will develop along the periphery of stronger flow aloft (driven by a departing mid-level shortwave trough), some organization is possible. Multiple dry microbursts may occur, some of which may pose a severe gust threat. An upgrade to a Slight Risk may be needed if guidance consensus trends upward in convective coverage.
Maine
By late morning into early afternoon, partially clearing skies will encourage surface temperatures to rise into the 70s F, resulting in marginal instability (e.g. a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE) given relatively poor mid-level lapse rates. Nonetheless, a southerly mid- to upper-level jet streak will overspread northern New England during the afternoon, resulting in highly elongated hodographs and 30-40 kts of effective bulk (speed) shear. As such, any storms that can develop and become sustained should become organized multicells capable of supporting a few damaging gusts.
Portions of the Gulf to Carolina coastlines
By late morning into the afternoon, the heating of a very moist boundary layer (e.g. 70s F surface dewpoints) will yield 2000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE, despite poor mid-level lapse rates. Once convective temperatures are reached, several pulse storms and multicells will develop, capable of producing wet downbursts and at least isolated damaging gusts. Vertical wind shear will be locally stronger along the NC coastline, where a supercell cannot be ruled out.
A consensus among CAMS depicts a relatively more organized cluster of multicells emanating from a warm-air-advection regime across the Ozark Valley, which will mature over southern MS into LA. Here, there may be a locally denser cluster of damaging gusts, hence the introduction of Category 2/Slight Risk severe wind probabilities.
..Squitieri.. 08/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Tuesday, August 25
Outlook Summary
At least widely scattered severe storms are likely across portions of the central Plains on Tuesday. More isolated severe storms may also occur across parts of the Southeast and the Upper Mississippi Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 231930
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
### SUMMARY
At least widely scattered severe storms are likely across portions of the central Plains on Tuesday. More isolated severe storms may also occur across parts of the Southeast and the Upper Mississippi Valley.
Synopsis
A synoptic scale mid-level anticyclone will overspread most of the western and central CONUS on Tuesday, with multiple mid-level impulses poised to pivot around the anticyclone across the Plains states into the Upper- and Mid-MS Valleys. The most pronounced impulse, in the form of a mid-level shortwave trough, will traverse the northern Plains Tuesday afternoon, supporting a surface trough with a cold front draping southwestward across the Plains. Along and ahead of the cold front, enough deep-layer shear and ascent, in tandem with adequate buoyancy, will support at least scattered severe storms across the southern and central High Plains into the Upper MS Valley.
Central and southern High Plains
As a mid-level impulse crests the ridge and tracks southeastward across the northern Plains, a cold front will drift south-southeastward across NE. Meanwhile, upslope moist low-level flow will encourage both increased instability and convergence along the immediate lee of the Rockies over NM and CO. 8 C/km mid-level lapse rates will overspread 60s F surface dewpoints, yielding 2000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE, with the strongest buoyancy expected immediately ahead of the cold front over northeast CO into NE. Here, the greatest severe threat exists since 40 kts of effective bulks shear will also coincide with the aforementioned buoyancy, with severe wind- and hail-producing multicells and supercells expected. There is some indication for the potential of cold-pool mergers and subsequent development of an MCS. If this occurs, a severe wind swath would manifest across the central High Plains. Farther south into the southern High Plains, a deep and dry boundary layer will compensate for weaker vertical wind shear to support a severe gust threat in association with dry downbursts, driven by evaporative cooling.
Upper MS Valley
A narrow tongue of at least mid 60s F surface dewpoints will advect ahead of a surface trough/cold front Tuesday afternoon. Though mid-level lapse rates may be modest, the rich low-level moisture will support 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Furthermore, southwesterly surface winds beneath stronger northwesterly flow aloft support modestly elongated and curved hodographs, with supercells possible. All severe hazards are possible with these storms, including an instance or two of 2+ inch diameter hail and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. An upgrade to Slight Risk may be needed in future outlooks if consensus and consistency among guidance members indicates relatively greater storm coverage.
Portions of the Gulf Coast
Another day of deep-layer north-northwesterly flow, atop a very moist boundary layer (i.e. 70s F surface dewpoints), will encourage multicellular development amid 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. The stronger storm cores may support wet downdrafts, the strongest of which may produce isolated wind damage.
..Squitieri.. 08/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Wednesday, August 26
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, August 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, August 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, August 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, August 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, August 30 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230838 SPC AC 230838
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 311200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Wednesday to D6/Friday
A mid-level trough will amplify across the Great Lakes region while the mid-level ridge maintains its amplitude across the Rockies. Within this pattern, some severe weather potential may exist as a cold front moves from the Great Lakes to the Northeast. However, the signal is not that strong and thus, it is unclear if more than an isolated threat will exist; but the evolution of this front and the instability associated with it will be monitored.
D7/Saturday to D8/Sunday
There is still a fair amount of uncertainty with the evolution of the pattern by next weekend, but a general trend toward flattening of the upper-level ridge is apparent in the deterministic, AI, and ensemble guidance next weekend. This includes moderate flow within the zonal region across the central/northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest. This period will need to be watched closely as strong instability and moderate shear appear to overlap across a relatively broad region, which should support diurnal thunderstorm activity given the flattening of the ridge. The specific timing/location of these threats will depend on evolution of the pattern and the embedded shortwave troughs within the flow. However, it is worth noting that the EC-AIFS and the AIGFS both have a signal for a more consolidated mid-level shortwave trough moving across the northern Plains on Sunday/D8, which has also been consistently shown by the EC-AIFS for the past 4 runs. If this trend continues, there may be opportunities for probabilities to be added in later outlooks.
..Bentley.. 08/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, August 27
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, August 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, August 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, August 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, August 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, August 30 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230838 SPC AC 230838
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 311200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Wednesday to D6/Friday
A mid-level trough will amplify across the Great Lakes region while the mid-level ridge maintains its amplitude across the Rockies. Within this pattern, some severe weather potential may exist as a cold front moves from the Great Lakes to the Northeast. However, the signal is not that strong and thus, it is unclear if more than an isolated threat will exist; but the evolution of this front and the instability associated with it will be monitored.
D7/Saturday to D8/Sunday
There is still a fair amount of uncertainty with the evolution of the pattern by next weekend, but a general trend toward flattening of the upper-level ridge is apparent in the deterministic, AI, and ensemble guidance next weekend. This includes moderate flow within the zonal region across the central/northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest. This period will need to be watched closely as strong instability and moderate shear appear to overlap across a relatively broad region, which should support diurnal thunderstorm activity given the flattening of the ridge. The specific timing/location of these threats will depend on evolution of the pattern and the embedded shortwave troughs within the flow. However, it is worth noting that the EC-AIFS and the AIGFS both have a signal for a more consolidated mid-level shortwave trough moving across the northern Plains on Sunday/D8, which has also been consistently shown by the EC-AIFS for the past 4 runs. If this trend continues, there may be opportunities for probabilities to be added in later outlooks.
..Bentley.. 08/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, August 28
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, August 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, August 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, August 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, August 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, August 30 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230838 SPC AC 230838
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 311200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Wednesday to D6/Friday
A mid-level trough will amplify across the Great Lakes region while the mid-level ridge maintains its amplitude across the Rockies. Within this pattern, some severe weather potential may exist as a cold front moves from the Great Lakes to the Northeast. However, the signal is not that strong and thus, it is unclear if more than an isolated threat will exist; but the evolution of this front and the instability associated with it will be monitored.
D7/Saturday to D8/Sunday
There is still a fair amount of uncertainty with the evolution of the pattern by next weekend, but a general trend toward flattening of the upper-level ridge is apparent in the deterministic, AI, and ensemble guidance next weekend. This includes moderate flow within the zonal region across the central/northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest. This period will need to be watched closely as strong instability and moderate shear appear to overlap across a relatively broad region, which should support diurnal thunderstorm activity given the flattening of the ridge. The specific timing/location of these threats will depend on evolution of the pattern and the embedded shortwave troughs within the flow. However, it is worth noting that the EC-AIFS and the AIGFS both have a signal for a more consolidated mid-level shortwave trough moving across the northern Plains on Sunday/D8, which has also been consistently shown by the EC-AIFS for the past 4 runs. If this trend continues, there may be opportunities for probabilities to be added in later outlooks.
..Bentley.. 08/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, August 29
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, August 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, August 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, August 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, August 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, August 30 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230838 SPC AC 230838
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 311200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Wednesday to D6/Friday
A mid-level trough will amplify across the Great Lakes region while the mid-level ridge maintains its amplitude across the Rockies. Within this pattern, some severe weather potential may exist as a cold front moves from the Great Lakes to the Northeast. However, the signal is not that strong and thus, it is unclear if more than an isolated threat will exist; but the evolution of this front and the instability associated with it will be monitored.
D7/Saturday to D8/Sunday
There is still a fair amount of uncertainty with the evolution of the pattern by next weekend, but a general trend toward flattening of the upper-level ridge is apparent in the deterministic, AI, and ensemble guidance next weekend. This includes moderate flow within the zonal region across the central/northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest. This period will need to be watched closely as strong instability and moderate shear appear to overlap across a relatively broad region, which should support diurnal thunderstorm activity given the flattening of the ridge. The specific timing/location of these threats will depend on evolution of the pattern and the embedded shortwave troughs within the flow. However, it is worth noting that the EC-AIFS and the AIGFS both have a signal for a more consolidated mid-level shortwave trough moving across the northern Plains on Sunday/D8, which has also been consistently shown by the EC-AIFS for the past 4 runs. If this trend continues, there may be opportunities for probabilities to be added in later outlooks.
..Bentley.. 08/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, August 30
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, August 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, August 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, August 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, August 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, August 30 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230838 SPC AC 230838
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 311200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Wednesday to D6/Friday
A mid-level trough will amplify across the Great Lakes region while the mid-level ridge maintains its amplitude across the Rockies. Within this pattern, some severe weather potential may exist as a cold front moves from the Great Lakes to the Northeast. However, the signal is not that strong and thus, it is unclear if more than an isolated threat will exist; but the evolution of this front and the instability associated with it will be monitored.
D7/Saturday to D8/Sunday
There is still a fair amount of uncertainty with the evolution of the pattern by next weekend, but a general trend toward flattening of the upper-level ridge is apparent in the deterministic, AI, and ensemble guidance next weekend. This includes moderate flow within the zonal region across the central/northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest. This period will need to be watched closely as strong instability and moderate shear appear to overlap across a relatively broad region, which should support diurnal thunderstorm activity given the flattening of the ridge. The specific timing/location of these threats will depend on evolution of the pattern and the embedded shortwave troughs within the flow. However, it is worth noting that the EC-AIFS and the AIGFS both have a signal for a more consolidated mid-level shortwave trough moving across the northern Plains on Sunday/D8, which has also been consistently shown by the EC-AIFS for the past 4 runs. If this trend continues, there may be opportunities for probabilities to be added in later outlooks.
..Bentley.. 08/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, August 23
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Monday, August 24
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Tuesday, August 25
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Wednesday, August 26
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, August 27
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, August 28
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, August 29
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, August 30
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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