Severe Weather Outlook
Hayley here
- Do you like
lofi music
whatever music Hayley put on
and terrifyingly loud computer voices? Then stop by the 24/7 ish severe weather live stream!
* stats delayed and were probably not accurate to begin with
National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, January 15
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 151611
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1011 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026
Valid 151630Z - 161200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.
Discussion
A prominent longwave trough will continue to prevail from the Rockies eastward, with related continental low-level trajectories. Lingering thunderstorm potential off the coast of southern Florida in vicinity of the Florida Straits will continue to diminish as a cold front progresses southeastward.
..Guyer/Squitieri.. 01/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Friday, January 16
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Friday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 151659
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Friday.
Discussion
Embedded within a large-scale trough encompassing the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS, a shortwave trough will overspread the mid-Mississippi Valley into the lower Great Lakes during the afternoon. Strengthening large-scale ascent and steepening of deep-layer lapse rates may yield weak and shallow buoyancy. However, thermodynamic profiles appear insufficient to support deep convection or lightning at this time.
..Weinman.. 01/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Saturday, January 17
Outlook Summary
No severe thunderstorms are expected on Saturday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 150741
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
No severe thunderstorms are expected on Saturday.
A broad upper trough will prevail across most of the CONUS on Saturday, with dry/stable conditions inhibiting thunderstorms in most areas. A few afternoon storms are possible over south FL, but weak CAPE and limited vertical shear should preclude severe storms.
..Hart.. 01/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Sunday, January 18
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, January 18 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, January 19 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, January 20 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, January 21 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, January 22 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150947 SPC AC 150947
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range models continue to indicate that highly amplified mid-level troughing will persist across much of North America (to the east of the Rockies) and the Gulf Basin through this coming weekend into early next week, when an initially prominent ridge near the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast begins to weaken and perhaps redevelop to the west/northwest. Thereafter, sizable spread remains evident within and among the various model output concerning shorter wavelength developments and blocking within the larger-scale split flow across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific, and the impacts on the downstream flow remain unclear.
In general, it still appears that the Gulf Coast states and Gulf Basin may come under the increasing influence of a strengthening belt of westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, and troughing may tend to dig within the mid-latitude westerlies near and inland of the Pacific coast through mid to late next week. However, even with guidance indicating potential for modest surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies by the end of the period, it does not appear that moist return flow off a modifying Gulf boundary-layer will yet become supportive of appreciable inland destabilization.
..Kerr.. 01/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, January 19
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, January 18 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, January 19 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, January 20 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, January 21 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, January 22 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150947 SPC AC 150947
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range models continue to indicate that highly amplified mid-level troughing will persist across much of North America (to the east of the Rockies) and the Gulf Basin through this coming weekend into early next week, when an initially prominent ridge near the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast begins to weaken and perhaps redevelop to the west/northwest. Thereafter, sizable spread remains evident within and among the various model output concerning shorter wavelength developments and blocking within the larger-scale split flow across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific, and the impacts on the downstream flow remain unclear.
In general, it still appears that the Gulf Coast states and Gulf Basin may come under the increasing influence of a strengthening belt of westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, and troughing may tend to dig within the mid-latitude westerlies near and inland of the Pacific coast through mid to late next week. However, even with guidance indicating potential for modest surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies by the end of the period, it does not appear that moist return flow off a modifying Gulf boundary-layer will yet become supportive of appreciable inland destabilization.
..Kerr.. 01/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, January 20
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, January 18 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, January 19 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, January 20 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, January 21 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, January 22 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150947 SPC AC 150947
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range models continue to indicate that highly amplified mid-level troughing will persist across much of North America (to the east of the Rockies) and the Gulf Basin through this coming weekend into early next week, when an initially prominent ridge near the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast begins to weaken and perhaps redevelop to the west/northwest. Thereafter, sizable spread remains evident within and among the various model output concerning shorter wavelength developments and blocking within the larger-scale split flow across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific, and the impacts on the downstream flow remain unclear.
In general, it still appears that the Gulf Coast states and Gulf Basin may come under the increasing influence of a strengthening belt of westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, and troughing may tend to dig within the mid-latitude westerlies near and inland of the Pacific coast through mid to late next week. However, even with guidance indicating potential for modest surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies by the end of the period, it does not appear that moist return flow off a modifying Gulf boundary-layer will yet become supportive of appreciable inland destabilization.
..Kerr.. 01/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, January 21
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, January 18 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, January 19 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, January 20 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, January 21 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, January 22 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150947 SPC AC 150947
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range models continue to indicate that highly amplified mid-level troughing will persist across much of North America (to the east of the Rockies) and the Gulf Basin through this coming weekend into early next week, when an initially prominent ridge near the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast begins to weaken and perhaps redevelop to the west/northwest. Thereafter, sizable spread remains evident within and among the various model output concerning shorter wavelength developments and blocking within the larger-scale split flow across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific, and the impacts on the downstream flow remain unclear.
In general, it still appears that the Gulf Coast states and Gulf Basin may come under the increasing influence of a strengthening belt of westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, and troughing may tend to dig within the mid-latitude westerlies near and inland of the Pacific coast through mid to late next week. However, even with guidance indicating potential for modest surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies by the end of the period, it does not appear that moist return flow off a modifying Gulf boundary-layer will yet become supportive of appreciable inland destabilization.
..Kerr.. 01/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, January 22
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, January 18 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, January 19 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, January 20 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, January 21 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, January 22 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150947 SPC AC 150947
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range models continue to indicate that highly amplified mid-level troughing will persist across much of North America (to the east of the Rockies) and the Gulf Basin through this coming weekend into early next week, when an initially prominent ridge near the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast begins to weaken and perhaps redevelop to the west/northwest. Thereafter, sizable spread remains evident within and among the various model output concerning shorter wavelength developments and blocking within the larger-scale split flow across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific, and the impacts on the downstream flow remain unclear.
In general, it still appears that the Gulf Coast states and Gulf Basin may come under the increasing influence of a strengthening belt of westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, and troughing may tend to dig within the mid-latitude westerlies near and inland of the Pacific coast through mid to late next week. However, even with guidance indicating potential for modest surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies by the end of the period, it does not appear that moist return flow off a modifying Gulf boundary-layer will yet become supportive of appreciable inland destabilization.
..Kerr.. 01/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, January 15
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Friday, January 16
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Saturday, January 17
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Sunday, January 18
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, January 19
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, January 20
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, January 21
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, January 22
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Your Severe Outlook
Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.
Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.
Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.
About Severe Weather Outlook . com
SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.
- tornado hq - live severe weather warnings
- cyclocane - hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones
- tornado solitaire - play cards while you monitor the US severe weather threat
- tertremo - live view of earthquakes around the world
- earthquake solitaire - get live earthquake updates as you play your favorite card game