Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, August 28
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across the central and northern Plains, northern Georgia into the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic, central and eastern Maine, and from parts of the Great Basin and Desert Southwest into the northern Rockies.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 281231
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0731 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026
Valid 281300Z - 291200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS…GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES…NORTH GA INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC…AND PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN ME…
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across the central and northern Plains, northern Georgia into the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic, central and eastern Maine, and from parts of the Great Basin and Desert Southwest into the northern Rockies.
Maine
A shortwave trough is evident this morning over the St Lawrence Valley. This trough will track eastward across northern New England, with an associated cold front moving through ME. Models are consistent in the depiction of scattered thunderstorm development along the front by mid-late afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient CAPE and deep layer shear to promote a few organized or potentially supercell storms capable of locally damaging wind gusts and hail.
GA to Mid-Atlantic Region
Broad cyclonic flow aloft will be present today over much of the eastern states, with a diffuse surface cold front extending from VA into GA. Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along the front this afternoon, with slow-moving but strong storms possible. Moderate CAPE, rather high PWAT values, and limited deep-layer shear will promote isolated strong storms capable of water-loaded downbursts.
Great Basin into WY
The upper ridge will remain centered over NM, while a 50+ knot mid-level jet rotates eastward from NV into ID/UT/WY. Scattered high-based showers and storms are expected over a large part of the Great Basin into WY, with the strongest cells capable of damaging wind gusts.
Dakotas
As the high-based convection over WY spreads eastward into western ND/SD, it will encounter greater low-level moisture and CAPE, likely resulting in some intensification. A few bowing structures are possible in this area this evening, capable of locally damaging wind gusts and hail. This complex of storms may persist after midnight with a continued risk of gusty/damaging winds.
..Hart/Kerr.. 08/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Saturday, August 29
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe storms are possible across parts of the northern Great Basin and the northern Plains. Severe wind gusts are the main threat.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 280553
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe storms are possible across parts of the northern Great Basin and the northern Plains. Severe wind gusts are the main threat.
Synopsis
The upper ridge that has remained stagnant across the Southwest into the central U.S. will gradually drift toward the MS Valley tomorrow (Saturday), resulting in the progression and amplification of a mid-level trough over the Intermountain West. A surface lee trough will gradually intensify east of the Rockies, with some potential for surface low development over the northern High Plains. A belt of stronger mid-level flow associated with the aforementioned upper trough will overspread a relatively moist low-level airmass across portions of the northern Rockies to the northern Plains. As such, adequate buoyancy and vertical wind shear will be in place to support at least scattered strong to potentially severe thunderstorms Saturday afternoon.
Portions of the northern Rockies to the northern High Plains
A broad belt of 40-50 kt 500 mb flow will overspread the northern Great Basin to ND through Saturday afternoon and evening, yielding elongated, mainly straight hodographs. Furthermore, the approach of the aforementioned upper trough will promote adequate QG ascent for at least scattered thunderstorm development from the northern Great Basin to the Dakotas. A relatively mixed boundary layer beneath the broader region of stronger flow aloft and accompanying speed shear will encourage at least isolated severe gust potential, hence the introduction of broad Marginal Risk probabilities.
Across northern portions of the Great Basin, a relatively focused corridor of severe wind potential exists immediately ahead of the upper trough, where QG ascent will be strongest. NAM and RAP forecast soundings disagree somewhat on thermodynamic profiles across this region. RAP shows the presence of richer low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints over 60 F), amid 7.5+ C/km mid-level lapse rates and over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Meanwhile, NAM depicts upper 40s F low to 50s F dewpoints and slightly less steep mid-level lapse rates. Nonetheless, both guidance members agree on showing over 1000 J/kg peak MLCAPE amid elongated hodographs and 40+ kts of effective bulk shear, suggesting the potential for supercells. As such, a Category 2/Slight Risk was introduced.
Across the Dakotas, immediately west of a surface low, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop amid moist low-level upslope flow along the higher terrain. While mid-level lapse rates are not expected to be overly steep in this region, these storms will develop amid elongated hodographs and 40+ kts of effective bulk shear, with supercell structures possible. Severe wind and hail are currently the main hazards expected with these storms, with a Slight Risk introduced.
..Squitieri.. 08/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Sunday, August 30
Outlook Summary
At least isolated severe storms, accompanied by mainly a severe wind and hail threat, are possible across portions of the central and northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 280721
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
### SUMMARY
At least isolated severe storms, accompanied by mainly a severe wind and hail threat, are possible across portions of the central and northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday.
Synopsis
An upper ridge will gradually drift eastward from the central CONUS to the OH/TN Valley areas on Sunday, with two mid-level shortwave troughs poised to crest the upper ridge and overspread the Northeast and northern Plains, respectively. A surface low will develop across the northern Plains, preceded by a warm front that extends from the Dakotas into the Upper MS Valley as a cold front sags south-southeastward across the central Plains. Along the warm front and ahead of the cold front, seasonable low-level moisture will be overspread by modestly cooler temperatures and stronger flow aloft to support some threat for strong to potentially severe thunderstorms.
Portions of the northern Plains to the Upper MS Valley
One or more rounds of thunderstorms are expected to overspread the Dakotas into the Upper MS Valley during the day and early overnight hours on Sunday. Forecast soundings show 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreading 60s F surface dewpoints, yielding 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE on a widespread basis, particularly along the warm front, where sizeable curved/elongated hodographs also exist. The current thinking is that a mix of multicells and supercells are possible, with one or more clusters potentially growing upscale into an MCS. Severe wind and hail will be the main threats with multicell/supercell structures, with perhaps some risk of a wind swath should an MCS materialize.
Portions of the central Plains
Convective initiation along the cold front is quite conditional across NE and surrounding areas given appreciable MLCINH expected. Nonetheless, steep lapse rates potentially exceeding 8 C/km amid elongated hodographs suggest supercells structures could develop if MLCINH erodes sufficiently, or if isentropic lift in the early evening at the terminus of a strengthening low-level jet can support elevated convection.
..Squitieri.. 08/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Monday, August 31
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, August 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, September 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, September 2 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Thursday, September 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, September 4 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280849 SPC AC 280849
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper ridge will meander eastward across the central and eastern CONUS through the week, with multiple mid-level shortwave troughs and other smaller embedded impulses poised to pivot around the ridge and traverse the northern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic. Several days of at least scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected along the periphery of the upper ridge as appreciably strong mid-level flow overspreads a seasonably moist boundary layer, especially during the middle of the week. By the end of the week, appreciable instability builds back into the northern Plains and upper MS Valley, but predictability is too low to ascertain any localized severe potential this far in advance.
OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England
The strongest signal for severe thunderstorms currently exists for Days 5-6 (Tuesday-Wednesday). Guidance differs on the details regarding placement and timing of mid-level troughs/impulses on Day 5 (Tuesday), though severe thunderstorms will probably develop somewhere between the eastern Great Lakes to the Eastern Seaboard. Once details become clearer on where storm development is most likely, 15 percent severe probabilities will likely be introduced.
For Day 6 (Wednesday), there is a general consensus among medium-range guidance that at least one impulse will traverse the eastern Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England corridor. A 50+ kt mid-level northwesterly 500 mb jet will overspread mid 60s F surface dewpoints, yielding both 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE and 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear amid a convective signal. As such, a 15 percent severe area has been introduced for Wednesday where these aforementioned ingredients best overlap.
..Squitieri.. 08/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, September 1
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, August 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, September 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, September 2 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Thursday, September 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, September 4 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280849 SPC AC 280849
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper ridge will meander eastward across the central and eastern CONUS through the week, with multiple mid-level shortwave troughs and other smaller embedded impulses poised to pivot around the ridge and traverse the northern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic. Several days of at least scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected along the periphery of the upper ridge as appreciably strong mid-level flow overspreads a seasonably moist boundary layer, especially during the middle of the week. By the end of the week, appreciable instability builds back into the northern Plains and upper MS Valley, but predictability is too low to ascertain any localized severe potential this far in advance.
OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England
The strongest signal for severe thunderstorms currently exists for Days 5-6 (Tuesday-Wednesday). Guidance differs on the details regarding placement and timing of mid-level troughs/impulses on Day 5 (Tuesday), though severe thunderstorms will probably develop somewhere between the eastern Great Lakes to the Eastern Seaboard. Once details become clearer on where storm development is most likely, 15 percent severe probabilities will likely be introduced.
For Day 6 (Wednesday), there is a general consensus among medium-range guidance that at least one impulse will traverse the eastern Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England corridor. A 50+ kt mid-level northwesterly 500 mb jet will overspread mid 60s F surface dewpoints, yielding both 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE and 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear amid a convective signal. As such, a 15 percent severe area has been introduced for Wednesday where these aforementioned ingredients best overlap.
..Squitieri.. 08/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, September 2
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, August 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, September 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, September 2 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Thursday, September 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, September 4 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280849 SPC AC 280849
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper ridge will meander eastward across the central and eastern CONUS through the week, with multiple mid-level shortwave troughs and other smaller embedded impulses poised to pivot around the ridge and traverse the northern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic. Several days of at least scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected along the periphery of the upper ridge as appreciably strong mid-level flow overspreads a seasonably moist boundary layer, especially during the middle of the week. By the end of the week, appreciable instability builds back into the northern Plains and upper MS Valley, but predictability is too low to ascertain any localized severe potential this far in advance.
OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England
The strongest signal for severe thunderstorms currently exists for Days 5-6 (Tuesday-Wednesday). Guidance differs on the details regarding placement and timing of mid-level troughs/impulses on Day 5 (Tuesday), though severe thunderstorms will probably develop somewhere between the eastern Great Lakes to the Eastern Seaboard. Once details become clearer on where storm development is most likely, 15 percent severe probabilities will likely be introduced.
For Day 6 (Wednesday), there is a general consensus among medium-range guidance that at least one impulse will traverse the eastern Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England corridor. A 50+ kt mid-level northwesterly 500 mb jet will overspread mid 60s F surface dewpoints, yielding both 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE and 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear amid a convective signal. As such, a 15 percent severe area has been introduced for Wednesday where these aforementioned ingredients best overlap.
..Squitieri.. 08/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, September 3
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, August 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, September 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, September 2 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Thursday, September 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, September 4 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280849 SPC AC 280849
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper ridge will meander eastward across the central and eastern CONUS through the week, with multiple mid-level shortwave troughs and other smaller embedded impulses poised to pivot around the ridge and traverse the northern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic. Several days of at least scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected along the periphery of the upper ridge as appreciably strong mid-level flow overspreads a seasonably moist boundary layer, especially during the middle of the week. By the end of the week, appreciable instability builds back into the northern Plains and upper MS Valley, but predictability is too low to ascertain any localized severe potential this far in advance.
OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England
The strongest signal for severe thunderstorms currently exists for Days 5-6 (Tuesday-Wednesday). Guidance differs on the details regarding placement and timing of mid-level troughs/impulses on Day 5 (Tuesday), though severe thunderstorms will probably develop somewhere between the eastern Great Lakes to the Eastern Seaboard. Once details become clearer on where storm development is most likely, 15 percent severe probabilities will likely be introduced.
For Day 6 (Wednesday), there is a general consensus among medium-range guidance that at least one impulse will traverse the eastern Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England corridor. A 50+ kt mid-level northwesterly 500 mb jet will overspread mid 60s F surface dewpoints, yielding both 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE and 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear amid a convective signal. As such, a 15 percent severe area has been introduced for Wednesday where these aforementioned ingredients best overlap.
..Squitieri.. 08/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, September 4
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, August 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, September 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, September 2 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Thursday, September 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, September 4 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280849 SPC AC 280849
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper ridge will meander eastward across the central and eastern CONUS through the week, with multiple mid-level shortwave troughs and other smaller embedded impulses poised to pivot around the ridge and traverse the northern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic. Several days of at least scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected along the periphery of the upper ridge as appreciably strong mid-level flow overspreads a seasonably moist boundary layer, especially during the middle of the week. By the end of the week, appreciable instability builds back into the northern Plains and upper MS Valley, but predictability is too low to ascertain any localized severe potential this far in advance.
OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England
The strongest signal for severe thunderstorms currently exists for Days 5-6 (Tuesday-Wednesday). Guidance differs on the details regarding placement and timing of mid-level troughs/impulses on Day 5 (Tuesday), though severe thunderstorms will probably develop somewhere between the eastern Great Lakes to the Eastern Seaboard. Once details become clearer on where storm development is most likely, 15 percent severe probabilities will likely be introduced.
For Day 6 (Wednesday), there is a general consensus among medium-range guidance that at least one impulse will traverse the eastern Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England corridor. A 50+ kt mid-level northwesterly 500 mb jet will overspread mid 60s F surface dewpoints, yielding both 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE and 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear amid a convective signal. As such, a 15 percent severe area has been introduced for Wednesday where these aforementioned ingredients best overlap.
..Squitieri.. 08/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, August 28
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Saturday, August 29
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Sunday, August 30
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Monday, August 31
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, September 1
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, September 2
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Thursday, September 3
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, September 4
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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