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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Thursday, June 4

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail and damaging winds are possible today from parts of the northern High Plains across northern Nebraska and much of South Dakota. More isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging winds appear possible farther south across portions of the central Plains.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 041628

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2026

Valid 041630Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail and damaging winds are possible today from parts of the northern High Plains across northern Nebraska and much of South Dakota. More isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging winds appear possible farther south across portions of the central Plains.

Southeast MT through the Dakotas into southern MN

Morning surface analysis places a weakening cold front from northwest MN through south-central SD to a weak low near the WY/SD/NE border intersection. Western portion of this boundary (from central SD westward) is forecast to stall, with perhaps some retreat northward during the late afternoon, while the eastern portion over MN progresses slowly eastward. Dewpoints will likely stay in the 60s along this boundary, with moderate to strong buoyancy developing by late afternoon. Moisture convergence, augmented by modest large-scale ascent attendant to a shortwave moving across MT, will likely result in scattered convective initiation by the late afternoon. Additional storms are expected farther west across eastern MT ahead of the aforementioned shortwave. Moderate deep-layer shear will support occasional supercells, with large to isolated very large hail as the primary risk. Storms will spread into the central Dakotas through the evening with a continued severe threat.

Farther east, late afternoon thunderstorm development is expected along the cold front. Deep-layer shear will be weaker than areas farther west, and a more outflow-dominant storm mode appears likely. Isolated hail is still possible early in the convective cycle, particularly into central SD where steeper mid-level lapse are expected.

Central/Eastern KS into southeast NE/northwest MO/western IA

Morning satellite imagery shows a well-defined MCV over western KS, with widespread cloud cover throughout its eastern periphery from central KS across south-central and eastern NE. Surface observations show dewpoints in the mid 60s beneath this cloud cover, with temperatures ranging from the upper 60s across central KS to the mid 70s across southwest IA. Southerly flow is anticipated throughout the day today, maintaining low-level moisture advection within this corridor. This increasing moisture coupled with sheltered/cloudy conditions will likely result in dewpoints climbing into the upper 60s (perhaps even some low 70s) across this region by the late afternoon. Modest heating is anticipated as well, with temperatures likely in the mid 70s to low 80s. Mid-level lapse rates are poor (generally less than 6 deg C per km from 700 to 500 mb), but the ample low-level moisture will still support afternoon/late afternoon MLCAPE around 1500 to 2000 J/kg and little, if any, convective inhibition.

Ascent attendant to the MCV and low-level convergence throughout its eastern periphery will support widespread thunderstorm development within this unstable and uncapped environment. Deep-layer shear will be weak (less than 25 kt from 0-6 km) across much of the region, with a largely multicellular mode anticipated. That being said, an increase in low-level southerly flow is expected throughout the eastern periphery of the MCV, contributing to some moderate lengthening of the low-level hodograph. This stronger low-level southerly flow combined with the ample moisture in place (i.e. PW values approaching 1.8" by the late afternoon, which is above the 90th percentile at TOP) results in a unique environment supportive of brief tornadoes. Even so, the lack of stronger deep-layer shear still suggests a predominantly disorganized storm mode, which should keep any tornado threat isolated enough to keep probabilities at 2%. A few water-loaded downbursts are possible as well.

..Mosier/Chalmers.. 06/04/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

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Outlook for Friday, June 5

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe storms capable of large to very large hail, damaging winds with potentially significant gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes are expected Friday afternoon into night across portions of the central Plains into upper Great Lakes.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 041730

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA…NORTH KANSAS…MUCH OF IOWA…SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA…AND FAR WESTERN WISCONSIN

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe storms capable of large to very large hail, damaging winds with potentially significant gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes are expected Friday afternoon into night across portions of the central Plains into upper Great Lakes.

Synopsis

A weak mid-level shortwave trough in the western Great Lakes Friday morning is forecast to weaken as it moves eastward through the day. A mid-level ridge will build across the central/northern Plains through the day with a strong trough approaching the Northwest. At the surface, high pressure will move off the Southeast coast with weak lee troughing across the central High Plains vicinity within an otherwise nebulous surface pattern.

Central Plains into the Upper Midwest

Thunderstorms will be ongoing at the beginning of the period, likely from northern Missouri into Iowa and southeast Wisconsin. Strong instability is expected to develop south/west of this activity where steep lapse rates advect over a moist airmass featuring low 70s dewpoints. Height rises across this region (southeast Nebraska into southwest Iowa) cast some doubt on diurnal storm development. Several members of the 12Z HREF show storms developing within this zone, but most others (most notably the HRRR, do not). Therefore, while the environment would support strong supercells with a threat for very large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado, the uncertainty related to storm coverage precludes higher probabilities at this time.

Regardless of if afternoon storms develop, additional convection is expected during the evening as the low-level jet strengthens. These storms may initially begin as supercells, but will likely grow into a linear segment relatively quickly. Given the strengthening low-level jet and forecast soundings that do not show clearly elevated thermodynamic profiles, expanded the 2% tornado probabilities east to account for some tornado threat during the evening hours.

Additional storms are possible farther northeast from northeast Iowa into Wisconsin along a diffuse cold front. While mid-level flow (and thus deep-layer shear) will be stronger across this region, instability is forecast to be more limited due to that morning/previous night convection that moved across the region and a lack of a strong low-level moisture advection into the region. Therefore, some strong to isolated severe storms are possible, but may be too isolated/marginal for higher probabilities at this time.

..Bentley.. 06/04/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Saturday, June 6

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds are possible from portions of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into the Northeast, and over the northern High Plains.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 041848

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND FROM NORTHERN OHIO INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds are possible from portions of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into the Northeast, and over the northern High Plains.

Synopsis

On Saturday, a ridge will build across the Plains into the Upper Midwest with an amplifying trough across the Northeast/eastern Great Lakes and another trough centered over the Northwest. At the surface, a weak surface low will be present across the Northeast with a stronger surface low in the lee of the northern Rockies.

Eastern Montana and western North Dakota

As lee troughing intensifies on Saturday, low-level moisture will advect northwestward into western North Dakota and eastern Montana. This will result in strong to very strong instability by mid to late afternoon. As the broader trough shifts east and height falls overspread the Plains, expect storms to develop along the lee trough/dryline in eastern Montana and move northeastward. As mid-level flow strengthens through the day, shear will strengthen and should support supercell storm mode. Large hail should be the primary threat, but given relatively steep lapse rates across the region, some severe wind threat will also exist.

Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley

A cold front will extend from the surface low in southern Quebec/New England into the eastern Great Lakes Saturday morning. Moisture will increase ahead of this front from west to east with increasing instability, especially across Indiana and into western Pennslylvania. Within this same zone, moderate mid-level flow will overspread the region with moderate deep-layer shear forecast. Storms are expected to develop along the front by mid afternoon and move south-southeastward into the evening. Farther northeast, dewpoints will remain in the low to mid 60s which should limit instability somewhat which should support lesser storm coverage/intensity along the font.

..Bentley.. 06/04/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Sunday, June 7

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040852 SPC AC 040852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2026

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

DISCUSSION

Day4/Sunday

A short-wave trough initially from the lee of the Canadian Rockies into the northern Rockies is forecast to lift northeast into central Canada, while a lower-latitude wave moves through the central and southern Plains toward the MS Valley. Elsewhere, a short-wave trough will traverse the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front will slowly advance across the northern Plains, while a separate cold front moves south through the Mid-Atlantic.

The strongest mid/upper-level winds and associated vertical shear will lag the northern Plains cold front to the west; however, the presence of moderate to strong instability within the warm sector may compensate, yielding the potential for an organized severe-weather event Sunday afternoon and evening. Elsewhere, isolated to widely scattered severe storms appear possible along the Mid-Atlantic cold front, as well as across lower elevations of central and southern Plains into Ozark Plateau, in association with the mid-level trough.

### Day5/Monday

Ensemble mean and deterministic model solutions are in good agreement in suggesting that a mid-level trough will move onto the West Coast, with a downstream belt of stronger winds remaining confined to the Interior West. At the surface, a cold front initially from the ND-MN Red River Valley into central High Plains will weaken through the day in response to falling pressures over the Rockies. Isolated severe storms appear possible along the segment of the front immediately east of a surface low over western KS where strong instability is forecast. However, generally weak forcing for ascent and marginal vertical shear may limit the potential for an organized severe-weather episode.

### Day6/Tuesday

The ensemble mean and deterministic model solutions remain in relatively good agreement in depicting the continued amplification of the mid-level trough over the western U.S., with a belt of stronger winds aloft overspreading the northern Plains. At the surface, there is reasonably good ensemble clustering in the location of a deepening lee cyclone over the northern High Plains, with a lee trough extending through the central into southern High Plains. While large-scale forcing for ascent remains somewhat nebulous, low-level convergence in the vicinity of the surface low and lee trough should be sufficient to initiate afternoon/evening thunderstorms within an environment favoring the potential for a concentrated area of severe weather.

### Day7-8/Wednesday and Thursday

The ensemble mean solutions suggest the main trough becoming quasi-stationary over the Interior West. There is considerably more spread in the deterministic models, especially by Thursday, in the location and geometry of the mid-level trough, as well as any smaller-scale disturbances embedded within it. At the surface, there is fairly large spread in ensemble member low pressure positions, and the location of any associated boundaries. In general, it appears that some severe-weather threat will continue across the northern Plains; however, confidence in a more specific details is currently too low to delineate an area.

..Mead.. 06/04/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, June 8

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040852 SPC AC 040852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2026

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

DISCUSSION

Day4/Sunday

A short-wave trough initially from the lee of the Canadian Rockies into the northern Rockies is forecast to lift northeast into central Canada, while a lower-latitude wave moves through the central and southern Plains toward the MS Valley. Elsewhere, a short-wave trough will traverse the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front will slowly advance across the northern Plains, while a separate cold front moves south through the Mid-Atlantic.

The strongest mid/upper-level winds and associated vertical shear will lag the northern Plains cold front to the west; however, the presence of moderate to strong instability within the warm sector may compensate, yielding the potential for an organized severe-weather event Sunday afternoon and evening. Elsewhere, isolated to widely scattered severe storms appear possible along the Mid-Atlantic cold front, as well as across lower elevations of central and southern Plains into Ozark Plateau, in association with the mid-level trough.

### Day5/Monday

Ensemble mean and deterministic model solutions are in good agreement in suggesting that a mid-level trough will move onto the West Coast, with a downstream belt of stronger winds remaining confined to the Interior West. At the surface, a cold front initially from the ND-MN Red River Valley into central High Plains will weaken through the day in response to falling pressures over the Rockies. Isolated severe storms appear possible along the segment of the front immediately east of a surface low over western KS where strong instability is forecast. However, generally weak forcing for ascent and marginal vertical shear may limit the potential for an organized severe-weather episode.

### Day6/Tuesday

The ensemble mean and deterministic model solutions remain in relatively good agreement in depicting the continued amplification of the mid-level trough over the western U.S., with a belt of stronger winds aloft overspreading the northern Plains. At the surface, there is reasonably good ensemble clustering in the location of a deepening lee cyclone over the northern High Plains, with a lee trough extending through the central into southern High Plains. While large-scale forcing for ascent remains somewhat nebulous, low-level convergence in the vicinity of the surface low and lee trough should be sufficient to initiate afternoon/evening thunderstorms within an environment favoring the potential for a concentrated area of severe weather.

### Day7-8/Wednesday and Thursday

The ensemble mean solutions suggest the main trough becoming quasi-stationary over the Interior West. There is considerably more spread in the deterministic models, especially by Thursday, in the location and geometry of the mid-level trough, as well as any smaller-scale disturbances embedded within it. At the surface, there is fairly large spread in ensemble member low pressure positions, and the location of any associated boundaries. In general, it appears that some severe-weather threat will continue across the northern Plains; however, confidence in a more specific details is currently too low to delineate an area.

..Mead.. 06/04/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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---

 

Outlook for Tuesday, June 9

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040852 SPC AC 040852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2026

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

DISCUSSION

Day4/Sunday

A short-wave trough initially from the lee of the Canadian Rockies into the northern Rockies is forecast to lift northeast into central Canada, while a lower-latitude wave moves through the central and southern Plains toward the MS Valley. Elsewhere, a short-wave trough will traverse the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front will slowly advance across the northern Plains, while a separate cold front moves south through the Mid-Atlantic.

The strongest mid/upper-level winds and associated vertical shear will lag the northern Plains cold front to the west; however, the presence of moderate to strong instability within the warm sector may compensate, yielding the potential for an organized severe-weather event Sunday afternoon and evening. Elsewhere, isolated to widely scattered severe storms appear possible along the Mid-Atlantic cold front, as well as across lower elevations of central and southern Plains into Ozark Plateau, in association with the mid-level trough.

### Day5/Monday

Ensemble mean and deterministic model solutions are in good agreement in suggesting that a mid-level trough will move onto the West Coast, with a downstream belt of stronger winds remaining confined to the Interior West. At the surface, a cold front initially from the ND-MN Red River Valley into central High Plains will weaken through the day in response to falling pressures over the Rockies. Isolated severe storms appear possible along the segment of the front immediately east of a surface low over western KS where strong instability is forecast. However, generally weak forcing for ascent and marginal vertical shear may limit the potential for an organized severe-weather episode.

### Day6/Tuesday

The ensemble mean and deterministic model solutions remain in relatively good agreement in depicting the continued amplification of the mid-level trough over the western U.S., with a belt of stronger winds aloft overspreading the northern Plains. At the surface, there is reasonably good ensemble clustering in the location of a deepening lee cyclone over the northern High Plains, with a lee trough extending through the central into southern High Plains. While large-scale forcing for ascent remains somewhat nebulous, low-level convergence in the vicinity of the surface low and lee trough should be sufficient to initiate afternoon/evening thunderstorms within an environment favoring the potential for a concentrated area of severe weather.

### Day7-8/Wednesday and Thursday

The ensemble mean solutions suggest the main trough becoming quasi-stationary over the Interior West. There is considerably more spread in the deterministic models, especially by Thursday, in the location and geometry of the mid-level trough, as well as any smaller-scale disturbances embedded within it. At the surface, there is fairly large spread in ensemble member low pressure positions, and the location of any associated boundaries. In general, it appears that some severe-weather threat will continue across the northern Plains; however, confidence in a more specific details is currently too low to delineate an area.

..Mead.. 06/04/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Wednesday, June 10

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040852 SPC AC 040852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2026

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

DISCUSSION

Day4/Sunday

A short-wave trough initially from the lee of the Canadian Rockies into the northern Rockies is forecast to lift northeast into central Canada, while a lower-latitude wave moves through the central and southern Plains toward the MS Valley. Elsewhere, a short-wave trough will traverse the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front will slowly advance across the northern Plains, while a separate cold front moves south through the Mid-Atlantic.

The strongest mid/upper-level winds and associated vertical shear will lag the northern Plains cold front to the west; however, the presence of moderate to strong instability within the warm sector may compensate, yielding the potential for an organized severe-weather event Sunday afternoon and evening. Elsewhere, isolated to widely scattered severe storms appear possible along the Mid-Atlantic cold front, as well as across lower elevations of central and southern Plains into Ozark Plateau, in association with the mid-level trough.

### Day5/Monday

Ensemble mean and deterministic model solutions are in good agreement in suggesting that a mid-level trough will move onto the West Coast, with a downstream belt of stronger winds remaining confined to the Interior West. At the surface, a cold front initially from the ND-MN Red River Valley into central High Plains will weaken through the day in response to falling pressures over the Rockies. Isolated severe storms appear possible along the segment of the front immediately east of a surface low over western KS where strong instability is forecast. However, generally weak forcing for ascent and marginal vertical shear may limit the potential for an organized severe-weather episode.

### Day6/Tuesday

The ensemble mean and deterministic model solutions remain in relatively good agreement in depicting the continued amplification of the mid-level trough over the western U.S., with a belt of stronger winds aloft overspreading the northern Plains. At the surface, there is reasonably good ensemble clustering in the location of a deepening lee cyclone over the northern High Plains, with a lee trough extending through the central into southern High Plains. While large-scale forcing for ascent remains somewhat nebulous, low-level convergence in the vicinity of the surface low and lee trough should be sufficient to initiate afternoon/evening thunderstorms within an environment favoring the potential for a concentrated area of severe weather.

### Day7-8/Wednesday and Thursday

The ensemble mean solutions suggest the main trough becoming quasi-stationary over the Interior West. There is considerably more spread in the deterministic models, especially by Thursday, in the location and geometry of the mid-level trough, as well as any smaller-scale disturbances embedded within it. At the surface, there is fairly large spread in ensemble member low pressure positions, and the location of any associated boundaries. In general, it appears that some severe-weather threat will continue across the northern Plains; however, confidence in a more specific details is currently too low to delineate an area.

..Mead.. 06/04/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Thursday, June 11

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040852 SPC AC 040852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2026

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

DISCUSSION

Day4/Sunday

A short-wave trough initially from the lee of the Canadian Rockies into the northern Rockies is forecast to lift northeast into central Canada, while a lower-latitude wave moves through the central and southern Plains toward the MS Valley. Elsewhere, a short-wave trough will traverse the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front will slowly advance across the northern Plains, while a separate cold front moves south through the Mid-Atlantic.

The strongest mid/upper-level winds and associated vertical shear will lag the northern Plains cold front to the west; however, the presence of moderate to strong instability within the warm sector may compensate, yielding the potential for an organized severe-weather event Sunday afternoon and evening. Elsewhere, isolated to widely scattered severe storms appear possible along the Mid-Atlantic cold front, as well as across lower elevations of central and southern Plains into Ozark Plateau, in association with the mid-level trough.

### Day5/Monday

Ensemble mean and deterministic model solutions are in good agreement in suggesting that a mid-level trough will move onto the West Coast, with a downstream belt of stronger winds remaining confined to the Interior West. At the surface, a cold front initially from the ND-MN Red River Valley into central High Plains will weaken through the day in response to falling pressures over the Rockies. Isolated severe storms appear possible along the segment of the front immediately east of a surface low over western KS where strong instability is forecast. However, generally weak forcing for ascent and marginal vertical shear may limit the potential for an organized severe-weather episode.

### Day6/Tuesday

The ensemble mean and deterministic model solutions remain in relatively good agreement in depicting the continued amplification of the mid-level trough over the western U.S., with a belt of stronger winds aloft overspreading the northern Plains. At the surface, there is reasonably good ensemble clustering in the location of a deepening lee cyclone over the northern High Plains, with a lee trough extending through the central into southern High Plains. While large-scale forcing for ascent remains somewhat nebulous, low-level convergence in the vicinity of the surface low and lee trough should be sufficient to initiate afternoon/evening thunderstorms within an environment favoring the potential for a concentrated area of severe weather.

### Day7-8/Wednesday and Thursday

The ensemble mean solutions suggest the main trough becoming quasi-stationary over the Interior West. There is considerably more spread in the deterministic models, especially by Thursday, in the location and geometry of the mid-level trough, as well as any smaller-scale disturbances embedded within it. At the surface, there is fairly large spread in ensemble member low pressure positions, and the location of any associated boundaries. In general, it appears that some severe-weather threat will continue across the northern Plains; however, confidence in a more specific details is currently too low to delineate an area.

..Mead.. 06/04/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

National Risk Overview

Thursday, June 4

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Friday, June 5

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Saturday, June 6

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Sunday, June 7

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Monday, June 8

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Tuesday, June 9

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Wednesday, June 10

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Thursday, June 11

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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