Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, February 5
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 051621
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Thu Feb 05 2026
Valid 051630Z - 061200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight.
Synopsis
Recent satellite imagery reveals a considerably amplified upper pattern featuring an eastern CONUS upper trough and a western CONUS Rex Block anchored by expansive ridging from Mexico into British Columbia. Within the eastern CONUS troughing, a shortwave trough currently extends from the central Appalachians southwestward into the north-central Gulf. Surface low associated with this shortwave is currently off the South Carolina coast, with an attendant cold front extending back southwestward across south Florida. This surface low is forecast to eject northeastward into more of the western Atlantic as its parent shortwave progresses eastward and the cold front pushes through the remainder of south Florida. Modest low-level moisture precedes this front across south Florida, but tempered heating and warm temperatures aloft will mitigate any buoyancy and no thunderstorms are anticipated. Cool and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms elsewhere across the CONUS.
..Mosier/Lyons.. 02/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Friday, February 6
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday or Friday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 051652
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 AM CST Thu Feb 05 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday or Friday night.
Southern CA
Within the base of a large-scale trough near coastal CA, an embedded mid-level low should modestly amplify to the west of northern Baja CA by early Saturday. Cool mid-level temperatures (around -22 C at 500 mb) in conjunction with marginal boundary-layer moisture should yield scant buoyancy at peak heating Friday over parts of coastal southern CA. Weak orographic ascent across the Transverse Ranges vicinity might support a couple thunderstorms during the late afternoon to early evening. Overall thunder probabilities appear to be around 10 percent.
..Grams.. 02/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Saturday, February 7
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday or Saturday night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 050806
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CST Thu Feb 05 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday or Saturday night.
Discussion
A dry and stable air mass encompassing most of the CONUS will preclude thunderstorms on Saturday and Saturday night.
..Weinman.. 02/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Sunday, February 8
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, February 8 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, February 9 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, February 10 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, February 11 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, February 12 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050956 SPC AC 050956
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Thu Feb 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
A low-latitude midlevel low will advance eastward across northern Mexico on Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday, before devolving into an open wave and emerging over the southern Plains on Day 6/Tuesday. While thunderstorm potential should increase across the region ahead of this feature, current indications are that weakly modified Gulf moisture will limit appreciable severe potential – especially given modest midlevel lapse rates accompanying the trough.
In the wake of this feature, the upper-level pattern should begin to consolidate and amplify, as a large-scale trough develops over the West. This should eventually favor higher-quality boundary-layer moisture return into the southern Plains and lower MS Valley late in the extended forecast period.
..Weinman.. 02/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, February 9
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, February 8 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, February 9 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, February 10 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, February 11 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, February 12 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050956 SPC AC 050956
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Thu Feb 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
A low-latitude midlevel low will advance eastward across northern Mexico on Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday, before devolving into an open wave and emerging over the southern Plains on Day 6/Tuesday. While thunderstorm potential should increase across the region ahead of this feature, current indications are that weakly modified Gulf moisture will limit appreciable severe potential – especially given modest midlevel lapse rates accompanying the trough.
In the wake of this feature, the upper-level pattern should begin to consolidate and amplify, as a large-scale trough develops over the West. This should eventually favor higher-quality boundary-layer moisture return into the southern Plains and lower MS Valley late in the extended forecast period.
..Weinman.. 02/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, February 10
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, February 8 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, February 9 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, February 10 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, February 11 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, February 12 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050956 SPC AC 050956
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Thu Feb 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
A low-latitude midlevel low will advance eastward across northern Mexico on Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday, before devolving into an open wave and emerging over the southern Plains on Day 6/Tuesday. While thunderstorm potential should increase across the region ahead of this feature, current indications are that weakly modified Gulf moisture will limit appreciable severe potential – especially given modest midlevel lapse rates accompanying the trough.
In the wake of this feature, the upper-level pattern should begin to consolidate and amplify, as a large-scale trough develops over the West. This should eventually favor higher-quality boundary-layer moisture return into the southern Plains and lower MS Valley late in the extended forecast period.
..Weinman.. 02/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, February 11
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, February 8 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, February 9 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, February 10 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, February 11 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, February 12 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050956 SPC AC 050956
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Thu Feb 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
A low-latitude midlevel low will advance eastward across northern Mexico on Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday, before devolving into an open wave and emerging over the southern Plains on Day 6/Tuesday. While thunderstorm potential should increase across the region ahead of this feature, current indications are that weakly modified Gulf moisture will limit appreciable severe potential – especially given modest midlevel lapse rates accompanying the trough.
In the wake of this feature, the upper-level pattern should begin to consolidate and amplify, as a large-scale trough develops over the West. This should eventually favor higher-quality boundary-layer moisture return into the southern Plains and lower MS Valley late in the extended forecast period.
..Weinman.. 02/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, February 12
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, February 8 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, February 9 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, February 10 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, February 11 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, February 12 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050956 SPC AC 050956
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Thu Feb 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
A low-latitude midlevel low will advance eastward across northern Mexico on Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday, before devolving into an open wave and emerging over the southern Plains on Day 6/Tuesday. While thunderstorm potential should increase across the region ahead of this feature, current indications are that weakly modified Gulf moisture will limit appreciable severe potential – especially given modest midlevel lapse rates accompanying the trough.
In the wake of this feature, the upper-level pattern should begin to consolidate and amplify, as a large-scale trough develops over the West. This should eventually favor higher-quality boundary-layer moisture return into the southern Plains and lower MS Valley late in the extended forecast period.
..Weinman.. 02/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, February 5
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Friday, February 6
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Saturday, February 7
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Sunday, February 8
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, February 9
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, February 10
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, February 11
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, February 12
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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