Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Saturday, June 20

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms remain likely across parts of the central Plains this evening into late tonight. Large hail, severe winds (some 75+ mph), and a few tornadoes are possible.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 210059

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Valid 210100Z - 211200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms remain likely across parts of the central Plains this evening into late tonight. Large hail, severe winds (some 75+ mph), and a few tornadoes are possible.

Central Plains

An intense supercell cluster over northwest KS is expected to grow at least modestly upscale with time this evening, and spread east-southeastward across parts of northern/central KS, while more isolated supercells may evolve across southwest KS and move toward south-central KS through at least dusk. MLCAPE of near/above 2000 J/kg and effective shear of 50+ kt will continue to support organized storms with large hail (potentially 2+ inches in diameter with any sustained supercells), severe wind gusts (possibly 75+ mph), and some tornado potential, especially with storms that persist into richer low-level moisture across central/eastern KS. Storm evolution remains somewhat uncertain overnight into eastern KS and western MO, but a storm cluster and possible MCS may continue through the end of the period, with severe-wind potential, and some hail and tornado threat with any embedded supercells.

Farther northeast, elevated supercells may continue to pose a threat of hail and isolated strong to severe gusts from southeast NE into northeast KS through dusk. See MCD 1215 for more information.

To the west, a cluster of storms with a history of measured severe gusts is moving into parts of southwest SD and the NE Panhandle. Increasing CINH with time and eastward extent should result in a gradual weakening trend, though some severe threat will remain possible into mid/late evening across the NE Sand Hills region. See MCD 1218 for more information.

Some threat for isolated supercells may persist farther south into northeast CO through dusk, with a threat of hail. Other remnant high-based convection may pose a threat of localized severe gusts through dusk across parts of western/central WY.

..Dean.. 06/21/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Sunday, June 21

Outlook Summary

Severe storms are possible along a frontal zone from the Ohio Valley to the central High Plains from Sunday afternoon into night. Large to very large hail, severe winds, and tornadoes (some of which could be strong) will be possible.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 201723

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Severe storms are possible along a frontal zone from the Ohio Valley to the central High Plains from Sunday afternoon into night. Large to very large hail, severe winds, and tornadoes (some of which could be strong) will be possible.

Synopsis

A series of vorticity maxima, some with convective origins, will translate east through the central Plains and OH Valley, along with a belt of 40-50+ kt winds at 500 mb. In the lower levels, a southwesterly low-level jet (LLJ) initially from the southern Plains into the mid MO Valley Sunday morning is forecast to migrate east into the mid MS and OH Valleys, immediately ahead of a surface low tracking through the lower MO Valley into IL/IN. A cold front will trail the surface low, likely extending southwest through the lower MO Valley into southern KS or northern OK and the TX Panhandle by mid to late afternoon.

### Missouri into the OH Valley

Latest models remain consistent with previous runs in depicting one or multiple MCSs ongoing at 12Z Sunday along the LLJ axis from eastern KS into parts of northern and central MO. While the models signal a general decrease in storm coverage through the morning, the presence of modestly strong vertical shear suggests the potential for isolated occurrences of damaging winds and perhaps some hail across MO into western IL.

Renewed storm development is anticipated by afternoon from IL/IN in the vicinity of a remnant MCV west/southwest along the trailing outflow/warm frontal boundary to the primary surface low over the lower MO Valley. Enhanced warm thermal and moisture fluxes occurring along the LLJ are expected to support air mass recovery in the wake of the early-day storms with moderate to potentially strong instability forecast from the lower OH Valley into the Ozarks, south of the composite boundary.

Forecast soundings and plan-view kinematic fields indicate relatively strong low-level and deep-layer shear in the vicinity of the composite boundary across portions of MO/IL/IN Sunday afternoon into evening, where the highest probability of supercells and/or bowing structures capable of all hazards (including strong tornadoes) is expected to exist. However, as was alluded to in the initial Day 2 discussion, and is still the case, there is considerable latitudinal variability in the composite boundary location. As such, uncertainty remains too high to delineate higher severe-weather probabilities for this region.

### Central High Plains

A trailing vorticity lobe and western extension of a 40-50 kt mid-level jet maximum are expected to support weak cyclogenesis along a front or trough pushing into the region from the west. Ahead of that boundary, steep low/mid-level lapse rates and modest boundary-layer moisture content are expected to yield moderate afternoon instability amidst sufficiently strong deep-layer shear to support supercell storm modes capable of large to very large hail. Most recent model guidance has shifted the corridor of preferred storm development and residence slightly east across portions of western and central NE into northwest KS, and the severe-weather probabilities have been adjusted accordingly. Storms may congeal into clusters Sunday evening with the severe-weather threat transitioning more to damaging winds.

### Southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma into the Ozark Plateau

High-resolution model guidance suggests that a sub-synoptic-scale surface low/frontal wave may evolve Sunday afternoon along the trailing front. Enhanced convergence near and east of that feature should be sufficient to overcome the cap and allow for isolated to widely scattered storm development. The combination of moderate to strong instability and around 40 kt of deep-layer shear will support supercells as the initial storm mode with a risk for large to very large hail. A largely parallel orientation of the deep shear vector to the surface front suggests the potential for merging storms within a few hours after initiation, with damaging wind potential increasing at that time. Storms are expected to grow upscale into one or multiple MCSs with at least an isolated damaging-wind threat spreading south through the Ozark Plateau region Sunday night.

..Mead.. 06/20/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Monday, June 22

Outlook Summary

Widely scattered severe storms appear possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic Monday afternoon and evening. More isolated severe weather is expected along a frontal zone that will extend from the southern Appalachians to the Mid-South and southern Plains, as well as across the central and northern High Plains Monday afternoon and evening.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 201930

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A PART OF THE MID-ATLANTIC

### SUMMARY

Widely scattered severe storms appear possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic Monday afternoon and evening. More isolated severe weather is expected along a frontal zone that will extend from the southern Appalachians to the Mid-South and southern Plains, as well as across the central and northern High Plains Monday afternoon and evening.

Synopsis

A series of mid-level disturbances initially from the Great Lakes and OH Valley into the mid-South Monday morning are expected to translate east toward the Atlantic Coast during the forecast period. A belt of stronger mid-level flow will coincide with a more prominent short-wave trough translating through the Mid-Atlantic during the day. Elsewhere, mid-level flow is forecast to strengthen across the northern and central High Plains, downstream from a short-wave trough moving through the northern High Plains.

At the surface, an area of low pressure over the upper OH Valley at 12Z Monday is forecast to develop toward the Mid-Atlantic Coast by evening with a trailing cold front advancing through the central Appalachians and TN Valley into the Southeast and central Gulf Coast States. The western extension of the boundary will extend through the southern Plains into eastern NM with a strengthening upslope flow regime developing within the post-frontal environment across the central and northern High Plains.

### Mid-Atlantic

Areas of showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Monday morning across the lower Great Lakes/upper OH Valley region. Ahead of that convection, a southwesterly low-level jet is forecast to migrate through the Mid-Atlantic, enhancing the poleward transport of an increasingly moist and unstable boundary layer. Increasing height falls/forcing for ascent coupled with convergence near and ahead of the surface low, cold front, and any existing outflow boundaries are expected to foster an increase in storm coverage and intensity by afternoon. Strengthening mid-level flow aloft will combine with backed, near-ground winds ahead of the surface low to enhance vertical shear across the DelMarVa region, supporting the potential for supercell storm modes capable of all severe-weather hazards.

### Northern and central High Plains into the southern Plains

There is some model signal for a weak mid-level disturbance to overspread the northern and central High Plains Monday, ahead of a stronger short-wave trough, which will remain well upstream through the peak of the diurnal heating cycle. Forcing for ascent remains much more nebulous across the southern Plains. Thunderstorms appear possible during the afternoon within the upslope flow regime across the northern and central High Plains, as well as along the stalled synoptic front in TX and OK. Storm coverage remains uncertain, which precludes higher probabilities at this time. However, given the presence of moderate to strong instability and more-than-sufficient vertical shear for supercells, a conditional intensity group one contour has been added to the forecast.

### Southern Appalachians into the mid-South and lower Mississippi Valley

Multiple, larger-scale storm clusters may be ongoing Monday morning across the Ozark Plateau into the Mid-South. Daytime heating coupled with the presence of a very moist low-level air mass is expected to yield moderate to strong instability by afternoon ahead of the early-day storms. As such, any storms that linger through the morning may intensify by afternoon, with additional storms developing along the synoptic front and any remnant outflow boundaries. Generally weak vertical shear is expected to limit organized, severe-storm potential; however, the magnitude of instability and presence of steep low-level lapse rates will be supportive of damaging downburst winds.

..Mead.. 06/20/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, June 23

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 201605 SPC AC 201605

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

CORRECTED FOR TYPO

DISCUSSION

An extended period of moderate northwesterly flow across the High Plains will lead to severe weather potential across the central High Plains. Upslope flow amid 30 to 50 knots mid-level winds should result in a severe weather environment, potentially on Tuesday, and particularly Wednesday and Thursday. The front will shift based on small-scale embedded shortwave disturbances and the prior day's convection, which will shift the location of the unstable warm sector. This results in uncertainty regarding the location of the threat for each day. This will continue to be monitored for potential areas to be added later.

Ridging will slide east across the Rockies and into the Plains by next weekend. Some severe weather threat may exist through this time as multiple embedded shortwave troughs will be within this region as instability increases across the Plains.

While it is mostly beyond Day 8, it is worth noting that deterministic, ensemble, and AI guidance all indicate a strong jet streak and mid-level trough traversing the Rockies toward the end of next weekend and into early next week. A strong lee cyclone would accompany this with strong instability across the Plains. There is still uncertainty with the timing and location of the trough, but given the agreement in this general pattern change, a substantial severe weather threat seems possible by the end of next weekend and early into the following week across portions of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest.

..Bentley.. 06/20/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, June 24

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 201605 SPC AC 201605

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

CORRECTED FOR TYPO

DISCUSSION

An extended period of moderate northwesterly flow across the High Plains will lead to severe weather potential across the central High Plains. Upslope flow amid 30 to 50 knots mid-level winds should result in a severe weather environment, potentially on Tuesday, and particularly Wednesday and Thursday. The front will shift based on small-scale embedded shortwave disturbances and the prior day's convection, which will shift the location of the unstable warm sector. This results in uncertainty regarding the location of the threat for each day. This will continue to be monitored for potential areas to be added later.

Ridging will slide east across the Rockies and into the Plains by next weekend. Some severe weather threat may exist through this time as multiple embedded shortwave troughs will be within this region as instability increases across the Plains.

While it is mostly beyond Day 8, it is worth noting that deterministic, ensemble, and AI guidance all indicate a strong jet streak and mid-level trough traversing the Rockies toward the end of next weekend and into early next week. A strong lee cyclone would accompany this with strong instability across the Plains. There is still uncertainty with the timing and location of the trough, but given the agreement in this general pattern change, a substantial severe weather threat seems possible by the end of next weekend and early into the following week across portions of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest.

..Bentley.. 06/20/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Thursday, June 25

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 201605 SPC AC 201605

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

CORRECTED FOR TYPO

DISCUSSION

An extended period of moderate northwesterly flow across the High Plains will lead to severe weather potential across the central High Plains. Upslope flow amid 30 to 50 knots mid-level winds should result in a severe weather environment, potentially on Tuesday, and particularly Wednesday and Thursday. The front will shift based on small-scale embedded shortwave disturbances and the prior day's convection, which will shift the location of the unstable warm sector. This results in uncertainty regarding the location of the threat for each day. This will continue to be monitored for potential areas to be added later.

Ridging will slide east across the Rockies and into the Plains by next weekend. Some severe weather threat may exist through this time as multiple embedded shortwave troughs will be within this region as instability increases across the Plains.

While it is mostly beyond Day 8, it is worth noting that deterministic, ensemble, and AI guidance all indicate a strong jet streak and mid-level trough traversing the Rockies toward the end of next weekend and into early next week. A strong lee cyclone would accompany this with strong instability across the Plains. There is still uncertainty with the timing and location of the trough, but given the agreement in this general pattern change, a substantial severe weather threat seems possible by the end of next weekend and early into the following week across portions of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest.

..Bentley.. 06/20/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Friday, June 26

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 201605 SPC AC 201605

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

CORRECTED FOR TYPO

DISCUSSION

An extended period of moderate northwesterly flow across the High Plains will lead to severe weather potential across the central High Plains. Upslope flow amid 30 to 50 knots mid-level winds should result in a severe weather environment, potentially on Tuesday, and particularly Wednesday and Thursday. The front will shift based on small-scale embedded shortwave disturbances and the prior day's convection, which will shift the location of the unstable warm sector. This results in uncertainty regarding the location of the threat for each day. This will continue to be monitored for potential areas to be added later.

Ridging will slide east across the Rockies and into the Plains by next weekend. Some severe weather threat may exist through this time as multiple embedded shortwave troughs will be within this region as instability increases across the Plains.

While it is mostly beyond Day 8, it is worth noting that deterministic, ensemble, and AI guidance all indicate a strong jet streak and mid-level trough traversing the Rockies toward the end of next weekend and into early next week. A strong lee cyclone would accompany this with strong instability across the Plains. There is still uncertainty with the timing and location of the trough, but given the agreement in this general pattern change, a substantial severe weather threat seems possible by the end of next weekend and early into the following week across portions of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest.

..Bentley.. 06/20/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Saturday, June 27

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 201605 SPC AC 201605

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

CORRECTED FOR TYPO

DISCUSSION

An extended period of moderate northwesterly flow across the High Plains will lead to severe weather potential across the central High Plains. Upslope flow amid 30 to 50 knots mid-level winds should result in a severe weather environment, potentially on Tuesday, and particularly Wednesday and Thursday. The front will shift based on small-scale embedded shortwave disturbances and the prior day's convection, which will shift the location of the unstable warm sector. This results in uncertainty regarding the location of the threat for each day. This will continue to be monitored for potential areas to be added later.

Ridging will slide east across the Rockies and into the Plains by next weekend. Some severe weather threat may exist through this time as multiple embedded shortwave troughs will be within this region as instability increases across the Plains.

While it is mostly beyond Day 8, it is worth noting that deterministic, ensemble, and AI guidance all indicate a strong jet streak and mid-level trough traversing the Rockies toward the end of next weekend and into early next week. A strong lee cyclone would accompany this with strong instability across the Plains. There is still uncertainty with the timing and location of the trough, but given the agreement in this general pattern change, a substantial severe weather threat seems possible by the end of next weekend and early into the following week across portions of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest.

..Bentley.. 06/20/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

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National Risk Overview

Saturday, June 20

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 30%

WIND: 30%

Sunday, June 21

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Monday, June 22

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Tuesday, June 23

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Wednesday, June 24

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Thursday, June 25

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, June 26

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Saturday, June 27

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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