Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, October 22
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Southwest, with the most intense cells expected across parts of Arizona and western New Mexico this afternoon and evening. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are all possible.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 221641
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Valid 221630Z - 231200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ARIZONA/WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND FOUR CORNERS
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Southwest, with the most intense cells expected across parts of Arizona and western New Mexico this afternoon and evening. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are all possible.
Arizona/Four Corners and Great Basin
Another active and relatively rare setup from a climatological perspective continues regionally, and will tend to shift east-northeastward through the afternoon and evening. This will be as the upper low in vicinity of the SoCal coast continues to become more northeastward progressive today, reaching portions of the Great Basin and lower Colorado River Valley by this evening.
Scenario will continue to favor supercells, particularly for eastern Arizona and western New Mexico from a longer-duration and tornado perspective, as low-level winds otherwise will tend to take on more of a westerly component over time farther west across Arizona as the upper trough approaches. Severe probabilities have been increased/expanded northward toward the Four Corners/Colorado Plateau vicinity, where an atypically rare setup of deep-layer/low-level shear coincident with modest but adequate severe-conducive degree of destabilization is expected.
As compared to yesterday, a greater coverage of storms will likely exist by later today/afternoon, which may mean a less-discrete nature of the supercells, but with more numerous severe-caliber/supercell storms capable of large hail, damaging winds and a tornado risk. Recent Tucson WSR-88D VWP data still reflects strong low-level shear/SRH and (splitting) supercell-favorable deep-layer wind profiles, with the probability that tornado potential will probably maximize across eastern Arizona/far western New Mexico this afternoon into evening, especially where topography influences a low-level easterly wind component. Large hail will be associated with both left-moving and right-moving supercells.
Farther north-northwest into the Great Basin, both low-level moisture and related MLCAPE are generally more limited. Even so, multiple corridors of isolated severe hail/wind and brief tornado potential will exist this afternoon. This will be as semi-low-topped convection develops ahead of the eastward-translating upper trough/low amid strong southerly flow/shear through much of the troposphere.
..Guyer/Weinman.. 10/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Friday, October 23
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of New Mexico on Friday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 221730
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NEW MEXICO
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of New Mexico on Friday.
Synopsis
Deep upper troughing is forecast to extend across much of the western CONUS early Friday morning. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within the larger scale troughing, including one moving northeastward across the eastern Great Basin towards western WY, one moving through the base of the parent trough across southern CA and another dropping quickly southward across the Sierra toward central and southern CA. The lead shortwave is forecast to continue northeastward through western WY and eastern MT before interacting with an intensifying shortwave trough moving across the Canadian Prairies. Evolution and interaction between the southernmost shortwaves is expected to yield a closed cyclone centered over the Lower CO Valley by early Saturday morning.
This overall evolution will foster a persistence of the deep southwesterly flow aloft from the Southwest across the central Rockies into the northern Plains. The overall troughing will have a slight positive tilt, but the mean eastward shift will foster modest height falls during the afternoon and evening across the Southwest. These height falls, and associated southerly low-level flow, will support scattered to numerous thunderstorms across NM, including the potential for some strong to severe storms. Additional thunderstorms appear likely near the embedded cold core as it moves across the northern Intermountain West, and within a band of warm-air advection farther east across the Upper MS Valley.
New Mexico
As mentioned in the synopsis, deep southwesterly flow is forecast to persist across the NM throughout the period. At the same time, a seasonably moist airmass will advect northward in the region. Uncertainty exists regarding potential heating and mixing of this moistening airmass, with some guidance notably more cloudy and less mixed. Current expectation is for the greatest potential for heating and mixing to remain over southern portions of the state, with more clouds and less heating with northern extent.
Even with this limited heating, moist low to mid-levels and cool mid-level temperatures will still support modest buoyancy across northern/central NM, beginning early Friday morning. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are possible across this region, with the combination of modest buoyancy and strong deep-layer vertical shear supportive of organized updrafts. Hail will be the primary risk, with isolated strong gusts possible as well. Given the potential for supercells and moist low-levels, a low-probability tornado risk exists as well.
Stronger heating and warmer temperatures appear more likely farther south, which will combine with greater low-level moisture support greater overall buoyancy and a relatively higher chance for organized updrafts capable of large hail and strong gusts. Some questions exist on how much low-level moisture will be in place (i.e. low 50s dewpoints vs. upper 50s/low 60s), but the higher dewpoint solutions suggest overall profiles supportive of very large hail (i.e. greater than 2”+) and tornadoes.
..Mosier.. 10/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Saturday, October 24
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe wind/hail or a tornado are possible across portions of central New Mexico into Far West Texas on Saturday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 220718
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe wind/hail or a tornado are possible across portions of central New Mexico into Far West Texas on Saturday.
Synopsis
A mid-level cut-off low will traverse the Desert Southwest and impinge on the southern High Plains on Saturday. This will provoke a low-level mass response in the form of northwestward moisture advection through the day. Cooler temperatures and stronger flow aloft associated with the cut-off low will overspread the low-level moisture, resulting in enough buoyancy and shear overlap to support an isolated severe threat.
Portions of central NM into Far West TX
Through the afternoon, 40-50 kt south-southwesterly mid-level flow and 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates from the approaching cut-off low will overspread mid to upper 50s F surface dewpoints and backed southeasterly surface winds. With surface heating of the aforementioned moist low-level airmass, MLCAPE may exceed 1000 J/kg, perhaps locally exceeding 1500 J/kg in spots given locally greater insolation. Veering and strengthening flow with height will yield modestly curved and elongated hodographs, with over 40 kts of effective bulk shear expected. Multicells and perhaps a couple of supercells may develop and persist for at least a few hours before merging into a loosely organized line of thunderstorms. Storms should be at their strongest during their supercell stage, capable of producing isolated severe hail/wind and perhaps a tornado.
..Squitieri.. 10/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Sunday, October 25
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220755 SPC AC 220755
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper-air pattern is expected through much of next week, with multiple mid-level troughs expected to traverse the central and northern CONUS through the extended period. Surface troughing will accompany several of these passing upper waves, encouraging the development of at least scattered showers and thunderstorms. However, deterministic medium-range guidance shows minimal convective instability associated with these surface troughs, which should limit the potential for severe thunderstorms into next week.
..Squitieri.. 10/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, October 26
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220755 SPC AC 220755
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper-air pattern is expected through much of next week, with multiple mid-level troughs expected to traverse the central and northern CONUS through the extended period. Surface troughing will accompany several of these passing upper waves, encouraging the development of at least scattered showers and thunderstorms. However, deterministic medium-range guidance shows minimal convective instability associated with these surface troughs, which should limit the potential for severe thunderstorms into next week.
..Squitieri.. 10/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, October 27
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220755 SPC AC 220755
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper-air pattern is expected through much of next week, with multiple mid-level troughs expected to traverse the central and northern CONUS through the extended period. Surface troughing will accompany several of these passing upper waves, encouraging the development of at least scattered showers and thunderstorms. However, deterministic medium-range guidance shows minimal convective instability associated with these surface troughs, which should limit the potential for severe thunderstorms into next week.
..Squitieri.. 10/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, October 28
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220755 SPC AC 220755
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper-air pattern is expected through much of next week, with multiple mid-level troughs expected to traverse the central and northern CONUS through the extended period. Surface troughing will accompany several of these passing upper waves, encouraging the development of at least scattered showers and thunderstorms. However, deterministic medium-range guidance shows minimal convective instability associated with these surface troughs, which should limit the potential for severe thunderstorms into next week.
..Squitieri.. 10/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, October 29
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220755 SPC AC 220755
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper-air pattern is expected through much of next week, with multiple mid-level troughs expected to traverse the central and northern CONUS through the extended period. Surface troughing will accompany several of these passing upper waves, encouraging the development of at least scattered showers and thunderstorms. However, deterministic medium-range guidance shows minimal convective instability associated with these surface troughs, which should limit the potential for severe thunderstorms into next week.
..Squitieri.. 10/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, October 22
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Friday, October 23
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 5%
- Saturday, October 24
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Sunday, October 25
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, October 26
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, October 27
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, October 28
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, October 29
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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