Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, September 2
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the eastern Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic today and tonight. Damaging wind gusts are the main threat, though some large hail and a few tornadoes may also occur. Scattered severe gusts and more sporadic occurrences of large hail appear possible from the northern Rockies into northern High Plains today into night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 30%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 021223
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0723 AM CDT Wed Sep 02 2026
Valid 021300Z - 031200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST STATES…AND ACROSS PARTS OF MONTANA
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the eastern Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic today and tonight. Damaging wind gusts are the main threat, though some large hail and a few tornadoes may also occur. Scattered severe gusts and more sporadic occurrences of large hail appear possible from the northern Rockies into northern High Plains today into night.
Northeast States
A complex but potentially active convective day is in store for parts of the northeast US today. A fast-moving MCS and associated mid-level shortwave trough is over Lake Michigan. This system is forecast to track rapidly eastward across Lower MI and southwest ON this morning before emerging into western NY/PA this afternoon. A consensus of overnight CAM solutions indicate this will be the focus for strong-severe thunderstorms that track east-southeastward during the afternoon and evening toward the Mid-Atlantic coast. Ample low-level moisture is present in this corridor. This along with daytime heating well into the 80s and steep low-level lapse rates will favor damaging wind gust potential in the strongest storms. A north-south surface boundary is expected to lie from central NY into east-central PA this afternoon, where low-level shear will be locally enhanced to pose some risk of a few tornadoes.
The primary uncertainty for a more widespread severe event today is the presence of considerable morning convection currently over northwest PA and western NY. These storms are well-ahead of the main forcing feature, and decrease confidence in significant destabilization over the primary risk area this afternoon. These early storms may pose a damaging wind and hail risk through the day, especially after a few hours of heating.
MT
Scattered high-based thunderstorms are expected to develop over the mountains of southwest MT this afternoon. Strong winds aloft and steep low-level lapse rates will aid in the risk of damaging wind gusts as the activity spreads northeastward through the early evening.
CO/WY
Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected to develop over the mountains of northern/western CO and southern WY. This activity will spread northeastward into eastern WY/western NE where inverted-v thermodynamic profiles are expected with 40-50 t-td spreads. This may result in locally damaging wind gusts.
..Hart/Dean.. 09/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Thursday, September 3
Outlook Summary
Severe storms, accompanied by severe wind and hail (including a couple 2 inch diameter stones and 75+ mph gusts), are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest. At least scattered severe-wind-producing storms are also possible from the eastern Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic coastline.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 020552
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Wed Sep 02 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
### SUMMARY
Severe storms, accompanied by severe wind and hail (including a couple 2 inch diameter stones and 75+ mph gusts), are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest. At least scattered severe-wind-producing storms are also possible from the eastern Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic coastline.
Synopsis
An upper ridge will remain centered over the MS Valley as upper troughs persist across the Northeast and Interior West tomorrow (Thursday). Multiple impulses, accompanied by cooler temperatures and stronger flow aloft, will pivot around the eastern periphery of the upper ridge and overspread a moist boundary layer over the Upper Midwest and OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic regions. Ample buoyancy and vertical wind shear over both areas will support at least scattered thunderstorms, several of which may be severe.
Portions of the Upper MS Valley
Guidance consensus depicts a subtle impulse cresting the upper ridge over the northern Plains and impinging on the Upper MS Valley by afternoon peak heating, serving as the most likely impetus for convective initiation. Storms will most likely develop somewhere along the SD/MN border to central MN, preceded by a surface warm front draped from southern MN, to southern WI and eastern IA. Surface dewpoints will exceed 70 F along this front, with 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreading this moisture, yielding 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE. Coincident with this strong buoyancy will be 50 kts of effective bulk shear, with forecast soundings showing elongated hodographs.
The current thinking is that initial storms will be supercellular, accompanied by mainly a severe wind and hail threat (a few stones of which may exceed 2 inches in diameter). However, if storms merge, a cold-pool-driven MCS may develop, perhaps even taking on bowing tendencies should it traverse the surface boundary. In this scenario, a focused severe wind swath could occur, and a couple of gusts may exceed 75 mph. Given such subtle forcing for ascent expected, and the dependency on finer mesoscale details for a higher-end severe threat, only Category 2/Slight Risk probabilities were introduced for now. If consistency in guidance consensus continues to show bow echo evolution, higher severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks.
Parts of the OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic Coastline
Another in a series of mid-level impulses will traverse the Mid-Atlantic region during the day. A diffuse differential heating zone should be in place somewhere near the PA/MD border, which will likely be the location of convective initiation by late morning or early afternoon. There is also the possibility that upstream convective complexes, remnant from Day 1 storms along the larger-scale warm front, may approach from the OH Valley and track toward the Eastern Seaboard though the day. Regardless of the convective scenario, storms should overspread 70+ F surface dewpoints (which will support over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE). Given modest northwesterly flow aloft, any storms that become sustained will be accompanied by a severe gust threat, though an instance of hail cannot be ruled out. Higher severe probabilities are not entirely out of the question once mesoscale details on convective placement, timing, and evolution become clearer.
..Squitieri.. 09/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Friday, September 4
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe thunderstorms, mainly producing damaging gusts, are expected across portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic on Friday. More isolated severe storms (with wind and hail) may occur over parts of the Midwest.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 020728
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Wed Sep 02 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe thunderstorms, mainly producing damaging gusts, are expected across portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic on Friday. More isolated severe storms (with wind and hail) may occur over parts of the Midwest.
Synopsis
Upper ridging will continue over the central and eastern U.S., with upper troughs meandering over the Interior West and the Northeast. A broad warm frontal boundary will be draped from parts of the Midwest to the Atlantic coastline, overspread by deep-layer northwesterly flow. Multiple embedded impulses will traverse this northwest flow regime, promoting the development of thunderstorm clusters in the process.
Southern portions of the Mid-Atlantic
The best chance for scattered severe thunderstorms will be across portions of southern WV to the NC shoreline on Friday. By afternoon, boundary-layer destabilization along a differential heating zone, left behind by storms in preceding days, will promote renewed thunderstorm development. Despite meager mid-level lapse rates, 70+ F surface dewpoints and warm temperatures exceeding 90 F will yield widespread 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Given stronger northwesterly flow aloft, 30+ kts of effective bulk (speed) shear will support multicells and supercells capable of damaging gusts.
Portions of the Midwest and OH Valley
Rich low-level moisture along the warm front (i.e. 70s F dewpoints), beneath 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, will support 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE and minimal convective inhibition. While upper support will be quite subtle at best, strong heating and minimal capping may support isolated thunderstorm development along the front. Only Marginal Risk probabilities were introduced given the expected sparse and brief nature of the severe threat. However, any storms that mature and become sustained will be capable of producing severe wind or hail.
..Squitieri.. 09/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Saturday, September 5
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, September 5 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Sunday, September 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, September 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, September 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, September 9 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020844 SPC AC 020844
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Wed Sep 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper ridging will prevail over much of the central and eastern CONUS into the middle of next week. The upper trough meandering over the Interior West will eventually eject into the northern Plains and pivot around the upper ridge while another upper trough (currently along the East Coast) slowly drifts out to sea. As this occurs, surface high pressure and cooler air will overspread the northeastern quadrant of the U.S.
In the extended period, the best chance for some severe storms will be in and around the Carolinas on Day 4/Saturday. A diffuse differential heating zone will continue to drift south while being reinforced from storms on previous days. By Saturday afternoon, heating along this boundary, amid a very moist environment, will promote damaging gust potential, hence the introduction of 15 percent severe probabilities.
There is also some hint at an MCS propagating southward across eastern ND into northern and central MN along a moist and unstable surface warm front on Saturday as well. While ML/AI calibrated guidance consensus is beginning to elevate severe probabilities in this area, upper support for this feature is quite weak at best, limiting confidence for the introduction of severe probabilities this outlook.
Lastly, the ejection of an upper trough into the northern Plains early next week (i.e. next Monday or Tuesday) will support surface lee troughing and the northward advection of rich low-level moisture beneath cooler temperatures and stronger flow aloft. At least an isolated severe thunderstorm risk may materialize from this scenario, but details on timing and placement of key features are too nebulous for the confident introduction of severe probabilities this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 09/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, September 6
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, September 5 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Sunday, September 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, September 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, September 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, September 9 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020844 SPC AC 020844
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Wed Sep 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper ridging will prevail over much of the central and eastern CONUS into the middle of next week. The upper trough meandering over the Interior West will eventually eject into the northern Plains and pivot around the upper ridge while another upper trough (currently along the East Coast) slowly drifts out to sea. As this occurs, surface high pressure and cooler air will overspread the northeastern quadrant of the U.S.
In the extended period, the best chance for some severe storms will be in and around the Carolinas on Day 4/Saturday. A diffuse differential heating zone will continue to drift south while being reinforced from storms on previous days. By Saturday afternoon, heating along this boundary, amid a very moist environment, will promote damaging gust potential, hence the introduction of 15 percent severe probabilities.
There is also some hint at an MCS propagating southward across eastern ND into northern and central MN along a moist and unstable surface warm front on Saturday as well. While ML/AI calibrated guidance consensus is beginning to elevate severe probabilities in this area, upper support for this feature is quite weak at best, limiting confidence for the introduction of severe probabilities this outlook.
Lastly, the ejection of an upper trough into the northern Plains early next week (i.e. next Monday or Tuesday) will support surface lee troughing and the northward advection of rich low-level moisture beneath cooler temperatures and stronger flow aloft. At least an isolated severe thunderstorm risk may materialize from this scenario, but details on timing and placement of key features are too nebulous for the confident introduction of severe probabilities this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 09/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, September 7
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, September 5 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Sunday, September 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, September 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, September 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, September 9 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020844 SPC AC 020844
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Wed Sep 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper ridging will prevail over much of the central and eastern CONUS into the middle of next week. The upper trough meandering over the Interior West will eventually eject into the northern Plains and pivot around the upper ridge while another upper trough (currently along the East Coast) slowly drifts out to sea. As this occurs, surface high pressure and cooler air will overspread the northeastern quadrant of the U.S.
In the extended period, the best chance for some severe storms will be in and around the Carolinas on Day 4/Saturday. A diffuse differential heating zone will continue to drift south while being reinforced from storms on previous days. By Saturday afternoon, heating along this boundary, amid a very moist environment, will promote damaging gust potential, hence the introduction of 15 percent severe probabilities.
There is also some hint at an MCS propagating southward across eastern ND into northern and central MN along a moist and unstable surface warm front on Saturday as well. While ML/AI calibrated guidance consensus is beginning to elevate severe probabilities in this area, upper support for this feature is quite weak at best, limiting confidence for the introduction of severe probabilities this outlook.
Lastly, the ejection of an upper trough into the northern Plains early next week (i.e. next Monday or Tuesday) will support surface lee troughing and the northward advection of rich low-level moisture beneath cooler temperatures and stronger flow aloft. At least an isolated severe thunderstorm risk may materialize from this scenario, but details on timing and placement of key features are too nebulous for the confident introduction of severe probabilities this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 09/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, September 8
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, September 5 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Sunday, September 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, September 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, September 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, September 9 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020844 SPC AC 020844
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Wed Sep 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper ridging will prevail over much of the central and eastern CONUS into the middle of next week. The upper trough meandering over the Interior West will eventually eject into the northern Plains and pivot around the upper ridge while another upper trough (currently along the East Coast) slowly drifts out to sea. As this occurs, surface high pressure and cooler air will overspread the northeastern quadrant of the U.S.
In the extended period, the best chance for some severe storms will be in and around the Carolinas on Day 4/Saturday. A diffuse differential heating zone will continue to drift south while being reinforced from storms on previous days. By Saturday afternoon, heating along this boundary, amid a very moist environment, will promote damaging gust potential, hence the introduction of 15 percent severe probabilities.
There is also some hint at an MCS propagating southward across eastern ND into northern and central MN along a moist and unstable surface warm front on Saturday as well. While ML/AI calibrated guidance consensus is beginning to elevate severe probabilities in this area, upper support for this feature is quite weak at best, limiting confidence for the introduction of severe probabilities this outlook.
Lastly, the ejection of an upper trough into the northern Plains early next week (i.e. next Monday or Tuesday) will support surface lee troughing and the northward advection of rich low-level moisture beneath cooler temperatures and stronger flow aloft. At least an isolated severe thunderstorm risk may materialize from this scenario, but details on timing and placement of key features are too nebulous for the confident introduction of severe probabilities this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 09/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, September 9
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, September 5 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Sunday, September 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, September 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, September 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, September 9 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020844 SPC AC 020844
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Wed Sep 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper ridging will prevail over much of the central and eastern CONUS into the middle of next week. The upper trough meandering over the Interior West will eventually eject into the northern Plains and pivot around the upper ridge while another upper trough (currently along the East Coast) slowly drifts out to sea. As this occurs, surface high pressure and cooler air will overspread the northeastern quadrant of the U.S.
In the extended period, the best chance for some severe storms will be in and around the Carolinas on Day 4/Saturday. A diffuse differential heating zone will continue to drift south while being reinforced from storms on previous days. By Saturday afternoon, heating along this boundary, amid a very moist environment, will promote damaging gust potential, hence the introduction of 15 percent severe probabilities.
There is also some hint at an MCS propagating southward across eastern ND into northern and central MN along a moist and unstable surface warm front on Saturday as well. While ML/AI calibrated guidance consensus is beginning to elevate severe probabilities in this area, upper support for this feature is quite weak at best, limiting confidence for the introduction of severe probabilities this outlook.
Lastly, the ejection of an upper trough into the northern Plains early next week (i.e. next Monday or Tuesday) will support surface lee troughing and the northward advection of rich low-level moisture beneath cooler temperatures and stronger flow aloft. At least an isolated severe thunderstorm risk may materialize from this scenario, but details on timing and placement of key features are too nebulous for the confident introduction of severe probabilities this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 09/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, September 2
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 30%
- Thursday, September 3
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Friday, September 4
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Saturday, September 5
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Sunday, September 6
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, September 7
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, September 8
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, September 9
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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