Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, August 16
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts will be possible this afternoon and early evening over parts of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Large hail and isolated severe wind gusts will also be possible across the Front Range and central/northern High Plains.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 162000
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026
Valid 162000Z - 171200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE FRONT RANGE AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS…AND PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts will be possible this afternoon and early evening over parts of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Large hail and isolated severe wind gusts will also be possible across the Front Range and central/northern High Plains.
20Z Update
Ongoing convection within the Upper Ohio Valley vicinity continues eastward this afternoon. Behind this convection, buoyancy has been reduced. Wind probabilities have also been reduced, though isolated strong to marginally severe storms are possible where some airmass recovery has occurred. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track with only minor changes to the general thunderstorm forecast.
..Wendt.. 08/16/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1144 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026/
Upper Ohio Valley to Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas
An MCV persists at midday across far southeast Michigan and northern Ohio, with some recent uptick in convection ahead of it across northern Ohio. Reference Mesoscale Discussion 1195 for short-term details regarding a further increase in severe potential through early/mid-afternoon within this regional corridor.
While storms have weakened, showers/cloud cover remain prevalent near/east of the Appalachians at midday across the Mid-Atlantic region. This will tend to limit/delay destabilization in many areas (especially with north-northeastward extent). That said, air mass recovery/advection is expected from the west, with ample upstream clearing per visible satellite imagery across the Cumberland Plateau into parts of the Allegheny Plateau. Pending the timing/location of destabilization, some terrain/lee trough-related development may diurnally occur, although the most prevalent/more certain scenario may be for potentially severe storms to spread into the region this evening. Damaging winds will be the most common hazard regionally, although a tornado could occur, attributable to MCV-enhanced flow and/or with any storms interacting with the effective warm front across the Mid-Atlantic region.
Middle Mississippi Valley including Missouri/Illinois
An MCV over the Nebraska/Kansas/Iowa/Missouri border vicinity late this morning will likely continue generally eastward, while probably largely maintaining its related belt of enhanced mid-level flow as observed from regional WSR-88D VWP data. A key downstream uncertainty is the midday persistence of weak convection across eastern Missouri into west/southwest Illinois, and that mid-level lapse rates are rather poor to its north aside from some lingering cloud cover.
More certain/greater destabilization may occur to the west across Missouri, with the southeastward-advancing front being a focus for renewed thunderstorm development later this afternoon and evening amidst moderate/locally strong buoyancy. Deep-layer shear will tend to be limited to around 30 kt in most areas, although somewhat stronger MCV-related winds aloft may support upwards of 35-40 kt effective shear for any storms across northern Missouri into west-central/southwest Illinois. Bouts of damaging winds are the most likely hazard regionally.
Front Range/Raton Mesa and northern/central High Plains
A relatively similar pattern/scenario as prior few days will continue regionally, except a somewhat more northward-extent of the severe risk (such as Black Hills vicinity) and a trend toward a more northerly component to the flow aloft across the north-central High Plains. At least widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected into mid/late afternoon spanning the Front Range/Raton Mesa vicinity northward across eastern Wyoming/southeast Montana and the Black Hills vicinity. In the presence of upwards of 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, moderate vertical shear (30-40 kt) could support a few supercells capable of severe hail. Isolated damaging winds will be possible. This includes the most probable zone for gradual upscale-growing linear cluster(s) across the south-central High Plains/Raton Mesa vicinity including southeast Colorado/northeast New Mexico toward the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles and far southwest Kansas. A couple of southeastward-moving thunderstorm clusters capable of wind/damage may also emerge this evening out of the Black Hills vicinity/western Nebraska.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Monday, August 17
Outlook Summary
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon and evening across portions of the northern and central Plains, and parts of the southern Appalachians/Carolinas. Isolated severe gusts may occur over Oklahoma.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 161732
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS…AND FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE CAROLINAS
### SUMMARY
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon and evening across portions of the northern and central Plains, and parts of the southern Appalachians/Carolinas. Isolated severe gusts may occur over Oklahoma.
Northern Plains
Stronger winds aloft will overspread the area on Monday with a front pushing across the region. While temperatures aloft will be cool, low-level moisture will not be excessive.
Storms are expected to form by 20Z over eastern ND and west-central MN, and over the Black Hills. The steep lapse rate environment, with modest MUCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg along with elongated mid to upper level hodographs will favor cells producing hail over 1.00". A greater/more concentrated severe risk is expected near and after 00Z, as activity matures as it moves southeastward into stronger instability from NE into southeast SD. Additional cells are also anticipated over central NE. Large hail is probable with all this activity, with scattered severe gusts as storms merge/cluster during the evening. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out late day/early evening as low-level shear increases with a southwesterly low-level jet.
Southern Appalachians/Carolinas Vicinity
The ridge over the Southeast will weaken a bit as a midlevel waves moves through during the day. Speed at 500 mb will average near 30 kt, with 15-20 kt at 850 mb. This will aid southeastward storm motions as development occurs within the surface trough/wind shift from NC and southern VA into TN. Precipitable water near 2.00" combined with the afternoon well-mixed boundary layer should support gusty outflow winds, with a few severe gusts over 50 kt possible. Activity should wane after about 03Z.
Parts of OK into AR
Dewpoints are forecast to be relatively high near a weakening boundary/wind shift that will extend roughly from the TX Panhandle across central/southern OK and into central AR. Daytime heating will then lead to a narrow east-west oriented corridor of steep boundary layer lapse rates, and strong instability. Shear will be weak, and so will forcing for ascent. However, several CAMs indicate at least isolated cells developing during the late afternoon, and locally severe downbursts may occur.
..Jewell.. 08/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Tuesday, August 18
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected Tuesday afternoon/evening across parts of the central Plains and toward the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 161936
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO LOWER MISSOURI/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected Tuesday afternoon/evening across parts of the central Plains and toward the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valley.
NE/IA/KS/MO
Moderate northwest flow aloft will exist across the region, with some cooling aloft late in the day. Low pressure will develop over western KS into southwest NE ahead of a convectively enhanced front which will drop south across I-80 in NE/IA. The presence of morning thunderstorms may further augment the boundary, and lends uncertainty to positioning. However, a plume of strong heating will exist as southwest low-level winds develop during the day near an east of the surface low, and strong instability may develop across the warm sector.
The area over NE appears quite favorable for supercells given some model progs, with deep-layer shear to 50 kt, and increased SRH near the boundary. Given the expected southeastward storm motions, supercells could remain on any such boundary, with isolated tornado potential. Very large hail may also occur with the late afternoon/early evening cells before likely mergers into an MCS, which may produce damaging winds as far south as northeast KS and northern MO.
Given uncertainties, will maintain 15% coverage, but with conditional CIG1 area.
..Jewell.. 08/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Wednesday, August 19
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, August 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, August 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, August 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, August 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, August 23 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160752 SPC AC 160752
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-5/Wed-Thu – Mid-South to Mid-Atlantic
An amplifying upper pattern is expected mid-week into the weekend, with troughing developing across the eastern half of the CONUS and an upper riding across the western half. As the upper trough digs across the eastern U.S., some severe potential could develop across the Mid-South into the southern Mid-Atlantic on Days 4-5/Wed-Thu. Building surface high pressure across the Great Lakes and stalled upper troughing will result in a slowly sagging surface front arcing across the region. With a very moist airmass in place, thunderstorms are possible, and at least isolated damaging winds could accompany this activity. However, potential appears too limited at this time for 15 percent probabilities at the time scale.
Days 7-8/Sat-Sun – Northern/Central Plains
Some severe potential could develop across the Plains during the weekend on the eastern periphery of the amplified upper ridge. Northwesterly flow aloft will remain enhanced across the region as southerly low-level flow on the back side of the Great Lakes surface high transports rich boundary layer moisture across the region. It is uncertain if capping will preclude thunderstorm development, but if any shortwave impulses migrate through northwesterly flow aloft, some severe risk could develop.
..Leitman.. 08/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, August 20
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, August 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, August 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, August 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, August 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, August 23 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160752 SPC AC 160752
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-5/Wed-Thu – Mid-South to Mid-Atlantic
An amplifying upper pattern is expected mid-week into the weekend, with troughing developing across the eastern half of the CONUS and an upper riding across the western half. As the upper trough digs across the eastern U.S., some severe potential could develop across the Mid-South into the southern Mid-Atlantic on Days 4-5/Wed-Thu. Building surface high pressure across the Great Lakes and stalled upper troughing will result in a slowly sagging surface front arcing across the region. With a very moist airmass in place, thunderstorms are possible, and at least isolated damaging winds could accompany this activity. However, potential appears too limited at this time for 15 percent probabilities at the time scale.
Days 7-8/Sat-Sun – Northern/Central Plains
Some severe potential could develop across the Plains during the weekend on the eastern periphery of the amplified upper ridge. Northwesterly flow aloft will remain enhanced across the region as southerly low-level flow on the back side of the Great Lakes surface high transports rich boundary layer moisture across the region. It is uncertain if capping will preclude thunderstorm development, but if any shortwave impulses migrate through northwesterly flow aloft, some severe risk could develop.
..Leitman.. 08/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, August 21
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, August 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, August 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, August 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, August 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, August 23 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160752 SPC AC 160752
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-5/Wed-Thu – Mid-South to Mid-Atlantic
An amplifying upper pattern is expected mid-week into the weekend, with troughing developing across the eastern half of the CONUS and an upper riding across the western half. As the upper trough digs across the eastern U.S., some severe potential could develop across the Mid-South into the southern Mid-Atlantic on Days 4-5/Wed-Thu. Building surface high pressure across the Great Lakes and stalled upper troughing will result in a slowly sagging surface front arcing across the region. With a very moist airmass in place, thunderstorms are possible, and at least isolated damaging winds could accompany this activity. However, potential appears too limited at this time for 15 percent probabilities at the time scale.
Days 7-8/Sat-Sun – Northern/Central Plains
Some severe potential could develop across the Plains during the weekend on the eastern periphery of the amplified upper ridge. Northwesterly flow aloft will remain enhanced across the region as southerly low-level flow on the back side of the Great Lakes surface high transports rich boundary layer moisture across the region. It is uncertain if capping will preclude thunderstorm development, but if any shortwave impulses migrate through northwesterly flow aloft, some severe risk could develop.
..Leitman.. 08/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, August 22
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, August 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, August 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, August 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, August 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, August 23 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160752 SPC AC 160752
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-5/Wed-Thu – Mid-South to Mid-Atlantic
An amplifying upper pattern is expected mid-week into the weekend, with troughing developing across the eastern half of the CONUS and an upper riding across the western half. As the upper trough digs across the eastern U.S., some severe potential could develop across the Mid-South into the southern Mid-Atlantic on Days 4-5/Wed-Thu. Building surface high pressure across the Great Lakes and stalled upper troughing will result in a slowly sagging surface front arcing across the region. With a very moist airmass in place, thunderstorms are possible, and at least isolated damaging winds could accompany this activity. However, potential appears too limited at this time for 15 percent probabilities at the time scale.
Days 7-8/Sat-Sun – Northern/Central Plains
Some severe potential could develop across the Plains during the weekend on the eastern periphery of the amplified upper ridge. Northwesterly flow aloft will remain enhanced across the region as southerly low-level flow on the back side of the Great Lakes surface high transports rich boundary layer moisture across the region. It is uncertain if capping will preclude thunderstorm development, but if any shortwave impulses migrate through northwesterly flow aloft, some severe risk could develop.
..Leitman.. 08/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, August 23
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, August 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, August 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, August 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, August 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, August 23 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160752 SPC AC 160752
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-5/Wed-Thu – Mid-South to Mid-Atlantic
An amplifying upper pattern is expected mid-week into the weekend, with troughing developing across the eastern half of the CONUS and an upper riding across the western half. As the upper trough digs across the eastern U.S., some severe potential could develop across the Mid-South into the southern Mid-Atlantic on Days 4-5/Wed-Thu. Building surface high pressure across the Great Lakes and stalled upper troughing will result in a slowly sagging surface front arcing across the region. With a very moist airmass in place, thunderstorms are possible, and at least isolated damaging winds could accompany this activity. However, potential appears too limited at this time for 15 percent probabilities at the time scale.
Days 7-8/Sat-Sun – Northern/Central Plains
Some severe potential could develop across the Plains during the weekend on the eastern periphery of the amplified upper ridge. Northwesterly flow aloft will remain enhanced across the region as southerly low-level flow on the back side of the Great Lakes surface high transports rich boundary layer moisture across the region. It is uncertain if capping will preclude thunderstorm development, but if any shortwave impulses migrate through northwesterly flow aloft, some severe risk could develop.
..Leitman.. 08/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, August 16
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Monday, August 17
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Tuesday, August 18
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Wednesday, August 19
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, August 20
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, August 21
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, August 22
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, August 23
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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