Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, September 20
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible this evening across parts of the central High Plains. A few severe wind gusts may also occur from the Ozarks northeastward into the Ohio Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 210100
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026
Valid 210100Z - 211200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible this evening across parts of the central High Plains. A few severe wind gusts may also occur from the Ozarks northeastward into the Ohio Valley.
Central High Plains
The latest water vapor imagery shows a shortwave mid-level trough over eastern Colorado. An axis of moderate instability, with MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range, is analyzed by the RAP just ahead of this feature from near the Colorado-Kansas state line southeastward into the Oklahoma Panhandle. An isolated supercell is currently ongoing near the instability axis near Lamar, Colorado. RAP forecast soundings ahead of this cell across far southwest Kansas early this evening have MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range, 0-6 km shear near 40 knots and 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7 C/km. This environment will continue to support supercells capable of large hail and wind damage. The threat could persist into the mid to late evening with parts of southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle being affected. Later this evening, short-term model forecasts also suggest that redevelopment may occur to the east of the Denver Metro, with a new cluster potentially tracking southeastward near the instability axis. This activity could also pose a large hail and wind damage threat.
Ozarks into the Ohio Valley
Several minor perturbations, embedded in westerly flow aloft, appear to moving through a corridor from the Ozarks eastward into the Ohio Valley. The most pronounced feature appears to be located in southeastern Indiana, ahead of which a small cluster of severe storms is ongoing. Along the projected track of these storms, the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1200 to 1500 J/kg range with 0-6 km around 35 knots. This should continue to support an isolated wind-damage threat for a couple more hours early this evening…see MCD 2319.
Further southwest into the parts of the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley, moderate instability is analyzed by the RAP from far northeast Oklahoma northeastward into south-central Illinois. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the instability axis. These storms may be capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts for another hour or two this evening…see MCD 2318.
..Broyles.. 09/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Monday, September 21
Outlook Summary
A few instances of damaging gusts are possible across the central and southern Appalachians to northern and central Mississippi on Monday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 201637
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MISSISSIPPI TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
### SUMMARY
A few instances of damaging gusts are possible across the central and southern Appalachians to northern and central Mississippi on Monday.
Central Appalachians to MS
Modest westerly deep-layer flow will overspread the Ohio Valley to central Appalachians ahead of a weak mid/upper shortwave trough shifting east from the central/southern Plains to the MS Valley. At the surface, a cold front will extend from the Mid-South through the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic early in the forecast period. This front will sag southward through the period, becoming oriented from the TN Valley to the Carolinas by early Tuesday. Ahead of the boundary, a moist airmass characterized by mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints will be in place. Where stronger heating occurs, moderate destabilization is expected. Vertical shear is expected to be weak, with effective shear magnitudes generally less than 15 kt. This should limit organized convection, with mainly pulse thunderstorm activity anticipated. PW values around 1.5-1.75 inches could support sporadic strong gusts. Storm coverage is expected to be isolated to widely scattered and overall risk limited by marginal environmental parameters.
Far eastern NM into central TX
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within an easterly/low-level upslope flow regime along a south/southwest moving surface cold front. Vertically veering wind profiles will result in modest effective shear, but deep-layer flow will be very weak. Additionally, weak capping between 850-700 mb in evident in forecast soundings. A narrow corridor of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast, though midlevel lapse rates will remain modest. Any storms that develop could also quickly become undercut by the surface cold front. Where stronger heating occurs, occasional gusty winds are possible, but overall severe risk appears too limited to include unconditional probabilities at this time.
..Leitman.. 09/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Tuesday, September 22
Outlook Summary
Isolated wind damage may occur with stronger storms from far east-central Mississippi into portions of the southern Appalachians on Tuesday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 201816
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EAST-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
### SUMMARY
Isolated wind damage may occur with stronger storms from far east-central Mississippi into portions of the southern Appalachians on Tuesday.
Far east-central MS into parts of the southern Appalachians
A surface cold front will be in place across the TN to Lower MS Valleys Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, the CAD/wedge front will develop south across the Carolinas through Tuesday evening. Ahead of the surface boundaries, upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will be in place beneath weak midlevel lapse rates. Abundant low-level moisture and stronger heating will support a corridor of moderate destabilization from far east-central MS toward far western NC. Deep-layer westerly flow will remain weak, and effective shear magnitudes less than 20 kt. However, steepened low-level lapse rates and PW values near 1.75-2 inches could support sporadic strong gusts from wet microbursts within thunderstorm clusters during the afternoon and early evening. The CAD/wedge front across the Carolinas will limit northeast extent of the severe risk, and probabilities have been removed from that area with the Day 3 update.
..Leitman.. 09/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Wednesday, September 23
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 23 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, September 24 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, September 25 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, September 26 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, September 27 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200823 SPC AC 200823
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper ridging will persist over the central U.S. through the forecast period, with a meandering upper trough evolving into a cut-off upper low off of the Mid-Atlantic Coast and an upper trough amplifying over the Interior West late this week into next weekend. Through the week, a relatively dry low-level airmass will settle east of the MS River and west of the Rockies, limiting the severe threat over the western and eastern third of the U.S. Some modest moisture return is likely across the Plains given lee troughing. However, upper support will be weak, which should limit the severe threat across the central U.S. as well. As such, no organized severe threats seem apparent for the CONUS Days 4-8 (Wednesday-Sunday).
..Squitieri.. 09/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, September 24
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 23 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, September 24 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, September 25 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, September 26 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, September 27 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200823 SPC AC 200823
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper ridging will persist over the central U.S. through the forecast period, with a meandering upper trough evolving into a cut-off upper low off of the Mid-Atlantic Coast and an upper trough amplifying over the Interior West late this week into next weekend. Through the week, a relatively dry low-level airmass will settle east of the MS River and west of the Rockies, limiting the severe threat over the western and eastern third of the U.S. Some modest moisture return is likely across the Plains given lee troughing. However, upper support will be weak, which should limit the severe threat across the central U.S. as well. As such, no organized severe threats seem apparent for the CONUS Days 4-8 (Wednesday-Sunday).
..Squitieri.. 09/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, September 25
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 23 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, September 24 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, September 25 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, September 26 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, September 27 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200823 SPC AC 200823
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper ridging will persist over the central U.S. through the forecast period, with a meandering upper trough evolving into a cut-off upper low off of the Mid-Atlantic Coast and an upper trough amplifying over the Interior West late this week into next weekend. Through the week, a relatively dry low-level airmass will settle east of the MS River and west of the Rockies, limiting the severe threat over the western and eastern third of the U.S. Some modest moisture return is likely across the Plains given lee troughing. However, upper support will be weak, which should limit the severe threat across the central U.S. as well. As such, no organized severe threats seem apparent for the CONUS Days 4-8 (Wednesday-Sunday).
..Squitieri.. 09/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, September 26
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 23 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, September 24 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, September 25 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, September 26 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, September 27 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200823 SPC AC 200823
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper ridging will persist over the central U.S. through the forecast period, with a meandering upper trough evolving into a cut-off upper low off of the Mid-Atlantic Coast and an upper trough amplifying over the Interior West late this week into next weekend. Through the week, a relatively dry low-level airmass will settle east of the MS River and west of the Rockies, limiting the severe threat over the western and eastern third of the U.S. Some modest moisture return is likely across the Plains given lee troughing. However, upper support will be weak, which should limit the severe threat across the central U.S. as well. As such, no organized severe threats seem apparent for the CONUS Days 4-8 (Wednesday-Sunday).
..Squitieri.. 09/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, September 27
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 23 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, September 24 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, September 25 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, September 26 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, September 27 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200823 SPC AC 200823
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper ridging will persist over the central U.S. through the forecast period, with a meandering upper trough evolving into a cut-off upper low off of the Mid-Atlantic Coast and an upper trough amplifying over the Interior West late this week into next weekend. Through the week, a relatively dry low-level airmass will settle east of the MS River and west of the Rockies, limiting the severe threat over the western and eastern third of the U.S. Some modest moisture return is likely across the Plains given lee troughing. However, upper support will be weak, which should limit the severe threat across the central U.S. as well. As such, no organized severe threats seem apparent for the CONUS Days 4-8 (Wednesday-Sunday).
..Squitieri.. 09/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, September 20
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Monday, September 21
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Tuesday, September 22
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Wednesday, September 23
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, September 24
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, September 25
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, September 26
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, September 27
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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