Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, July 6
Outlook Summary
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts remain possible across the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota this evening into tonight. Isolated damaging wind gusts will also be possible over parts of the northern Rockies into northern High Plains, Louisiana, and the southern Mid-Atlantic.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 070054
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Valid 070100Z - 071200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA…AND A SMALL PART OF LOUISIANA
### SUMMARY
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts remain possible across the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota this evening into tonight. Isolated damaging wind gusts will also be possible over parts of the northern Rockies into northern High Plains, Louisiana, and the southern Mid-Atlantic.
Upper Mississippi Valley
Recent trends in radar data indicate the coalescing of individual thunderstorms into a broader-scale cluster east of Fargo. The impingement of the cold front on that convection should foster further morphology into more of a line configuration with bowing characteristics late this evening into tonight, which is supported by latest convection-allowing model guidance. The 00Z ABR sounding sampled steep lapse rates, which were largely contributing to MLCAPE of around 3000 J/kg in the absence of a more moist boundary layer. The steep lapse rates and resultant top-heavy CAPE profile in conjunction with the drier low-level environment are expected to enhance cold pool development with damaging winds becoming the predominant severe weather hazard. Localized gusts as high as 70-75 mph are possible as the convective system advances into central MN.
Additional more isolated storm development is possible along the western flank of the MCS in eastern SD, where more sporadic large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible.
### Louisiana
Radar data indicate a cold pool attendant to a bowing storm complex now becoming displaced downstream from the parent updrafts, which should lead to the continued weakening of the MCS. Farther south, a brief uptick in thunderstorm development and associated damaging wind threat is possible over the next hour or so near and west of Alexandria where two outflow boundaries are expected to collide.
### Northern Rockies into Central High Plains
Evening water vapor imagery shows a short-wave trough moving through ID into western MT with an attending belt of stronger mid-level flow overspreading southern MT and northwest WY, per latest objective analysis. The glancing influence of that feature, coupled with orographic ascent, may still yield a few storm clusters late this evening into tonight in south-central and southeast MT and northeast WY, where isolated severe gusts will be possible.
..Mead.. 07/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Tuesday, July 7
Outlook Summary
Severe storms producing damaging winds are most likely over parts of the Dakotas into Minnesota from Tuesday afternoon into the overnight, with other isolated storms producing hail or wind over the northern High Plain. Daytime storms may produce isolated wind damage over northeast Texas and over Virginia and North Carolina.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 061707
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Severe storms producing damaging winds are most likely over parts of the Dakotas into Minnesota from Tuesday afternoon into the overnight, with other isolated storms producing hail or wind over the northern High Plain. Daytime storms may produce isolated wind damage over northeast Texas and over Virginia and North Carolina.
Dakotas into Minnesota
A low-amplitude shortwave trough will move eastward across the northern Plains Tuesday, with increasing mid and high level winds aloft enhancing shear. Low pressure will develop over western SD and NE, with a quasi-stationary front extending eastward across SD into central MN. Southerly winds will aid boundary layer mixing with strong heating from the central High Plains into central SD, while upper 60s to near 70 F dewpoints persist near the stationary front with easterly surface winds.
Areas of thunderstorms may occur early in the day from MT into ND where elevated instability will exist. Some of this activity may transition to surface based by afternoon, with a probable MCS developing into northern SD and moving into western MN overnight. MLCAPE of 2000-3000 along with a nocturnal low-level jet will support corridors of wind damage. Other storms are likely during the late afternoon near the low and extending southwestward within the surface trough. Some of these cells may produce large hail along with locally damaging gusts.
Northeast Texas into western Louisiana
A weak midlevel trough will remain from the lower to mid MS Valley into eastern TX, with cooler temperatures aloft. Daytime heating and 70s F dewpoints may yield strong instability across the northeast TX area, where clusters of storms appear likely after 20Z. Modest lapse rates aloft and weak shear will favor robust but short duration storms with locally damaging downbursts.
..Virginia and North Carolina
Strong heating and weak westerlies aloft will induce a surface trough across central VA into the Carolinas, with MUCAPE over 1500 J/kg likely developing. Storms may develop within this trough by peak heating, and also over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Locally damaging gusts may occur, especially with any congealing clusters.
..Jewell.. 07/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Wednesday, July 8
Outlook Summary
Clusters of strong thunderstorms with potential to produce severe hail and wind may evolve across parts of the Upper Midwest into central Great Plains Wednesday through Wednesday night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 061924
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
### SUMMARY
Clusters of strong thunderstorms with potential to produce severe hail and wind may evolve across parts of the Upper Midwest into central Great Plains Wednesday through Wednesday night.
Central Plains into the Upper Midwest
A generally zonal pattern will exist on Wednesday, with various disturbances moving across the northern Plains to Great Lakes. One disturbance will affect the upper MS Valley to Great Lakes during the day, with another developing late into the northern High Plains. Within the entire zone, midlevel westerlies will average 30-35 kt.
In the low levels, a front should stretch from near Lake Superior into central NE, where it will stall. Widespread mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will remain ahead of the front, contributing to 2000-3000 J/kg MUCAPE by afternoon.
Early activity is likely moving out of MN and into WI, and may overturn some of the air mass and push the effective boundary around. New diurnal storms are then likely during the afternoon, roughly from WI into southern MN and IA, with wind and hail potential.
Farther west, scattered strong to severe storms are likely across the High Plains, where strong heating and steep lapse rates will favor development beneath modest northwest flow aloft. Moisture and instability look sufficient, but not overlay strong, and will support scattered strong to severe gusts and some hail.
..Jewell.. 07/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Thursday, July 9
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, July 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, July 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, July 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, July 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, July 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060900 SPC AC 060900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range model output continues to indicate the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid/upper high across the lower Colorado Valley and Plateau late this week into next weekend, which may continue expanding and encompassing a significant portion of the interior U.S. by early next week. How far north and northeast this builds remains unclear; however, a plume of very warm elevated mixed layer air advecting on strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of this anticyclonic regime will contribute to an environment conditionally conducive to organized severe thunderstorm development.
It appears that this could focus anywhere from the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity through the Great Lakes into the Northeast. By early next week (the Day 8-9 time frame), in particular, at least some output suggests that a vigorous short wave trough rounding the ridge may be accompanied by strong cyclogenesis, which could promote widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of New England into northern Mid Atlantic. Given the uncertainties associated with the extended time frame and model spread/discrepancies, severe weather probabilities remain less than 15 percent for this period, but it is possible that this could change sometime in later outlook updates for this period.
..Kerr.. 07/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, July 10
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, July 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, July 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, July 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, July 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, July 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060900 SPC AC 060900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range model output continues to indicate the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid/upper high across the lower Colorado Valley and Plateau late this week into next weekend, which may continue expanding and encompassing a significant portion of the interior U.S. by early next week. How far north and northeast this builds remains unclear; however, a plume of very warm elevated mixed layer air advecting on strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of this anticyclonic regime will contribute to an environment conditionally conducive to organized severe thunderstorm development.
It appears that this could focus anywhere from the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity through the Great Lakes into the Northeast. By early next week (the Day 8-9 time frame), in particular, at least some output suggests that a vigorous short wave trough rounding the ridge may be accompanied by strong cyclogenesis, which could promote widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of New England into northern Mid Atlantic. Given the uncertainties associated with the extended time frame and model spread/discrepancies, severe weather probabilities remain less than 15 percent for this period, but it is possible that this could change sometime in later outlook updates for this period.
..Kerr.. 07/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, July 11
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, July 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, July 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, July 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, July 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, July 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060900 SPC AC 060900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range model output continues to indicate the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid/upper high across the lower Colorado Valley and Plateau late this week into next weekend, which may continue expanding and encompassing a significant portion of the interior U.S. by early next week. How far north and northeast this builds remains unclear; however, a plume of very warm elevated mixed layer air advecting on strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of this anticyclonic regime will contribute to an environment conditionally conducive to organized severe thunderstorm development.
It appears that this could focus anywhere from the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity through the Great Lakes into the Northeast. By early next week (the Day 8-9 time frame), in particular, at least some output suggests that a vigorous short wave trough rounding the ridge may be accompanied by strong cyclogenesis, which could promote widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of New England into northern Mid Atlantic. Given the uncertainties associated with the extended time frame and model spread/discrepancies, severe weather probabilities remain less than 15 percent for this period, but it is possible that this could change sometime in later outlook updates for this period.
..Kerr.. 07/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, July 12
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, July 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, July 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, July 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, July 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, July 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060900 SPC AC 060900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range model output continues to indicate the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid/upper high across the lower Colorado Valley and Plateau late this week into next weekend, which may continue expanding and encompassing a significant portion of the interior U.S. by early next week. How far north and northeast this builds remains unclear; however, a plume of very warm elevated mixed layer air advecting on strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of this anticyclonic regime will contribute to an environment conditionally conducive to organized severe thunderstorm development.
It appears that this could focus anywhere from the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity through the Great Lakes into the Northeast. By early next week (the Day 8-9 time frame), in particular, at least some output suggests that a vigorous short wave trough rounding the ridge may be accompanied by strong cyclogenesis, which could promote widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of New England into northern Mid Atlantic. Given the uncertainties associated with the extended time frame and model spread/discrepancies, severe weather probabilities remain less than 15 percent for this period, but it is possible that this could change sometime in later outlook updates for this period.
..Kerr.. 07/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, July 13
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, July 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, July 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, July 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, July 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, July 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060900 SPC AC 060900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range model output continues to indicate the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid/upper high across the lower Colorado Valley and Plateau late this week into next weekend, which may continue expanding and encompassing a significant portion of the interior U.S. by early next week. How far north and northeast this builds remains unclear; however, a plume of very warm elevated mixed layer air advecting on strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of this anticyclonic regime will contribute to an environment conditionally conducive to organized severe thunderstorm development.
It appears that this could focus anywhere from the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity through the Great Lakes into the Northeast. By early next week (the Day 8-9 time frame), in particular, at least some output suggests that a vigorous short wave trough rounding the ridge may be accompanied by strong cyclogenesis, which could promote widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of New England into northern Mid Atlantic. Given the uncertainties associated with the extended time frame and model spread/discrepancies, severe weather probabilities remain less than 15 percent for this period, but it is possible that this could change sometime in later outlook updates for this period.
..Kerr.. 07/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, July 6
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Tuesday, July 7
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Wednesday, July 8
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Thursday, July 9
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, July 10
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, July 11
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, July 12
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, July 13
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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