Severe Weather Outlook
Hayley here - Do you want to see severe weather in your calendar?
* it's like an add-on for your digital calendar NOT a paper calendar
National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, September 8
Outlook Summary
A few severe storms capable of mainly severe wind gusts appear possible across portions of Iowa and eastern Nebraska this afternoon and evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 081947
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Tue Sep 08 2026
Valid 082000Z - 091200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA ACROSS PARTS OF IOWA
### SUMMARY
A few severe storms capable of mainly severe wind gusts appear possible across portions of Iowa and eastern Nebraska this afternoon and evening.
20Z Update
The ongoing forecast remains on track and no changes are needed.
..Wendt.. 09/08/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Tue Sep 08 2026/
NE/IA
A broad upper ridge remains over much of the central/southern US, with moderately strong westerly flow over the northern tier of states. A baroclinic zone extends across southern NE into central IA. This feature will be sharpened by differential heating through the day, and will be the focus for afternoon and evening thunderstorm development. The strongest cells will be near a 20-30 knot southwesterly low-level jet where warm advection and lift will aid in convective initiation. Sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercell and eventual bowing structures, with damaging winds be the main concern. Most CAM solutions suggest the majority of convection will be just north of the surface boundary, which may limit the overall severe threat. Also, weak mid-level lapse rates and warm temperatures aloft will tend to diminish the hail risk.
CO/KS
Farther southwest, hot surface conditions will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer. Scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms are expected to form from eastern CO into western/central KS, with gusty and occasionally damaging wind gusts possible.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Wednesday, September 9
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central Plains to the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. A more organized severe weather threat is expected from eastern Ohio to western New York.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 081708
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 PM CDT Tue Sep 08 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN NEW YORK
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central Plains to the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. A more organized severe weather threat is expected from eastern Ohio to western New York.
Eastern Ohio into western New York
A mid-level trough will move from the Upper Midwest to the Northeast on Wednesday with moderate mid-level flow expanding along the southern periphery of this trough. A strong surface low associated with this trough will move across northern Ontario with a cold front extending into the Midwest. Ahead of this front, low 70s dewpoints are forecast to advect northward across Ohio, Pennsylvania, and western New York. Mid-level lapse rates will be relatively weak, but the moist environment will support moderate instability amid moderate effective shear. A line of storms is forecast to develop along the front from central Ohio into western New York. This environment should support damaging winds. Some tornado threat may exist as the low-level flow strengthens during the afternoon with clockwise curved low-level hodographs. However, a mostly linear storm mode should limit the overall tornado threat.
Ohio Valley to the central Plains
Moderate instability is forecast to develop from the central Plains to the Ohio Valley. Across the plains, instability will be driven by a hot, deeply mixed environment while instability farther east will be driven by 70s dewpoints. Within this entire zone, mid-level flow is expected to remain quite weak which will limit storm organization. Water-loaded downbursts farther east and drier microbursts in the mixed environment farther west will be the primary hazard within the Marginal Risk. A zone of greater instability from eastern Missouri into western Indiana could support an isolated hail threat, particularly if some of this greater instability can spread beneath stronger mid-level flow. However, morning convection/cloudcover may be present where this most favorable environment could develop.
..Bentley.. 09/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Thursday, September 10
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Thursday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 081849
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Tue Sep 08 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Thursday.
Discussion
As a mid-level trough moves into the western Atlantic on Thursday, surface high pressure will build into the Midwest/Great Lakes in its wake. South of this high pressure center a front will extend from Virginia to the central Plains. An expansive area of precipitation is expected along this front at the beginning of the period which should result in lesser instability, particularly east of the Appalachians. Farther west, moderate instability is expected near the front from the Lower Ohio Valley to the southern High Plains. Mid-level flow (and thus deep-layer shear) will be weak across much of this zone. Therefore, greater instability and storm clustering will likely be necessary for a marginal severe weather threat. This may occur across portions of the Ozarks or the southern High Plains, but the signal is weak at this time. Therefore, no severe weather probabilities are warranted.
A mid-level trough will translate quickly eastward across the Northwest on Thursday with ascent overspreading north-central Montana by Thursday night. A few fast-moving storms are expected across north-central Montana late Thursday night and early Friday morning amid weak instability. Despite the dynamic system, weak instability and unfavorable diurnal timing preclude severe weather probabilities at this time.
..Bentley.. 09/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Friday, September 11
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, September 11 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Saturday, September 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, September 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, September 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, September 15 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080724 SPC AC 080724
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Tue Sep 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-5/Fri-Sat – Plains to the Great Lakes vicinity
Severe potential could develop across portions of the Plains into the Upper Midwest on Day 4/Friday as boundary layer moisture spreads northward ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front. Moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the front, and enhanced vertical shear courtesy of a modest upper shortwave trough moving across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest vicinity, should be sufficient for organized convection mainly from Friday evening into early Saturday.
Some severe potential could persist into Day 5 Saturday as the surface front stalls over the central/southern Plains vicinity but continues eastward across the upper Great Lakes region. A moist boundary layer will be in place, but stronger flow aloft will become increasing displaced to the north of stronger instability, precluding 15 percent delineation at this time.
Days 6-8/Sun-Tue
An upper trough over the northwestern U.S. will develop eastward across the Plains and Great Lakes early next week. Another cold front will move across the area, and some severe potential could again sweep across the Plains to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity. Medium range forecast guidance generally maintains stronger instability offset from enhanced flow aloft, partly due to the early cold frontal passage in the Day 4-5/Friday-Saturday time frame and strong surface high pressure over the Great Lakes in the wake of that frontal passage. Trends will be monitored and probabilities could become necessary in later outlooks.
..Leitman.. 09/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, September 12
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, September 11 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Saturday, September 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, September 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, September 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, September 15 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080724 SPC AC 080724
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Tue Sep 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-5/Fri-Sat – Plains to the Great Lakes vicinity
Severe potential could develop across portions of the Plains into the Upper Midwest on Day 4/Friday as boundary layer moisture spreads northward ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front. Moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the front, and enhanced vertical shear courtesy of a modest upper shortwave trough moving across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest vicinity, should be sufficient for organized convection mainly from Friday evening into early Saturday.
Some severe potential could persist into Day 5 Saturday as the surface front stalls over the central/southern Plains vicinity but continues eastward across the upper Great Lakes region. A moist boundary layer will be in place, but stronger flow aloft will become increasing displaced to the north of stronger instability, precluding 15 percent delineation at this time.
Days 6-8/Sun-Tue
An upper trough over the northwestern U.S. will develop eastward across the Plains and Great Lakes early next week. Another cold front will move across the area, and some severe potential could again sweep across the Plains to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity. Medium range forecast guidance generally maintains stronger instability offset from enhanced flow aloft, partly due to the early cold frontal passage in the Day 4-5/Friday-Saturday time frame and strong surface high pressure over the Great Lakes in the wake of that frontal passage. Trends will be monitored and probabilities could become necessary in later outlooks.
..Leitman.. 09/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, September 13
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, September 11 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Saturday, September 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, September 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, September 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, September 15 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080724 SPC AC 080724
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Tue Sep 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-5/Fri-Sat – Plains to the Great Lakes vicinity
Severe potential could develop across portions of the Plains into the Upper Midwest on Day 4/Friday as boundary layer moisture spreads northward ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front. Moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the front, and enhanced vertical shear courtesy of a modest upper shortwave trough moving across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest vicinity, should be sufficient for organized convection mainly from Friday evening into early Saturday.
Some severe potential could persist into Day 5 Saturday as the surface front stalls over the central/southern Plains vicinity but continues eastward across the upper Great Lakes region. A moist boundary layer will be in place, but stronger flow aloft will become increasing displaced to the north of stronger instability, precluding 15 percent delineation at this time.
Days 6-8/Sun-Tue
An upper trough over the northwestern U.S. will develop eastward across the Plains and Great Lakes early next week. Another cold front will move across the area, and some severe potential could again sweep across the Plains to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity. Medium range forecast guidance generally maintains stronger instability offset from enhanced flow aloft, partly due to the early cold frontal passage in the Day 4-5/Friday-Saturday time frame and strong surface high pressure over the Great Lakes in the wake of that frontal passage. Trends will be monitored and probabilities could become necessary in later outlooks.
..Leitman.. 09/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, September 14
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, September 11 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Saturday, September 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, September 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, September 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, September 15 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080724 SPC AC 080724
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Tue Sep 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-5/Fri-Sat – Plains to the Great Lakes vicinity
Severe potential could develop across portions of the Plains into the Upper Midwest on Day 4/Friday as boundary layer moisture spreads northward ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front. Moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the front, and enhanced vertical shear courtesy of a modest upper shortwave trough moving across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest vicinity, should be sufficient for organized convection mainly from Friday evening into early Saturday.
Some severe potential could persist into Day 5 Saturday as the surface front stalls over the central/southern Plains vicinity but continues eastward across the upper Great Lakes region. A moist boundary layer will be in place, but stronger flow aloft will become increasing displaced to the north of stronger instability, precluding 15 percent delineation at this time.
Days 6-8/Sun-Tue
An upper trough over the northwestern U.S. will develop eastward across the Plains and Great Lakes early next week. Another cold front will move across the area, and some severe potential could again sweep across the Plains to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity. Medium range forecast guidance generally maintains stronger instability offset from enhanced flow aloft, partly due to the early cold frontal passage in the Day 4-5/Friday-Saturday time frame and strong surface high pressure over the Great Lakes in the wake of that frontal passage. Trends will be monitored and probabilities could become necessary in later outlooks.
..Leitman.. 09/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, September 15
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, September 11 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Saturday, September 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, September 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, September 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, September 15 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080724 SPC AC 080724
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Tue Sep 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-5/Fri-Sat – Plains to the Great Lakes vicinity
Severe potential could develop across portions of the Plains into the Upper Midwest on Day 4/Friday as boundary layer moisture spreads northward ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front. Moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the front, and enhanced vertical shear courtesy of a modest upper shortwave trough moving across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest vicinity, should be sufficient for organized convection mainly from Friday evening into early Saturday.
Some severe potential could persist into Day 5 Saturday as the surface front stalls over the central/southern Plains vicinity but continues eastward across the upper Great Lakes region. A moist boundary layer will be in place, but stronger flow aloft will become increasing displaced to the north of stronger instability, precluding 15 percent delineation at this time.
Days 6-8/Sun-Tue
An upper trough over the northwestern U.S. will develop eastward across the Plains and Great Lakes early next week. Another cold front will move across the area, and some severe potential could again sweep across the Plains to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity. Medium range forecast guidance generally maintains stronger instability offset from enhanced flow aloft, partly due to the early cold frontal passage in the Day 4-5/Friday-Saturday time frame and strong surface high pressure over the Great Lakes in the wake of that frontal passage. Trends will be monitored and probabilities could become necessary in later outlooks.
..Leitman.. 09/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, September 8
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Wednesday, September 9
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Thursday, September 10
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Friday, September 11
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Saturday, September 12
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, September 13
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, September 14
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, September 15
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Your Severe Outlook
Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.
Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.
Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.
About Severe Weather Outlook . com
SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.
- tornado hq - live severe weather warnings
- cyclocane - hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones
- tornado solitaire - play cards while you monitor the US severe weather threat
- tertremo - live view of earthquakes around the world
- earthquake solitaire - get live earthquake updates as you play your favorite card game