Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, June 12
Outlook Summary
Strong to severe storms capable of damaging winds are expected across parts of the Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast, mainly this afternoon and evening. Severe storms with a threat of large hail and severe wind gusts will also be possible across parts of the south-central High Plains.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 30%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 121630
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026
Valid 121630Z - 131200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS…MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST…AND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Strong to severe storms capable of damaging winds are expected across parts of the Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast, mainly this afternoon and evening. Severe storms with a threat of large hail and severe wind gusts will also be possible across parts of the south-central High Plains.
Mid-Atlantic into New England this afternoon/evening
Within the northern stream, a shortwave trough will progress east-northeastward over the lower Great Lakes this afternoon/evening, while an associated surface cold front moves eastward into New England and southeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. Forcing for ascent will not be particularly strong and the stronger midlevel flow/deep-layer vertical shear will remain displaced to the cool side of the front. Still, 25-30 kt midlevel flow will overlap the warm sector this afternoon from northern Chesapeake Bay northward into eastern NY. Strong surface heating is ongoing from the Piedmont into VA/southern PA, with a few more cloud patches from northeast PA into central NY. The net result will be moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg) in an environment with steep low-level lapse rates and weak upper flow, favoring multicell clusters with occasional wind damage. The weak forcing for ascent suggests that widely scattered, loosely organized clusters will be possible this afternoon, with some gaps in the wind threat.
Southern High Plains late this afternoon into early tonight
Lee cyclogenesis across southeast CO will draw low-level moisture northwestward into the southern High Plains as a stalled front begins to lift northward across the TX Panhandle. Thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon/evening with upslope flow into the higher terrain of NM, and along the Raton Mesa. Deep-layer vertical shear/hodograph length will be sufficient for supercells initially off Raton Mesa, with large hail the primary threat. Some upscale growth and an increase in the potential for severe outflow gusts is expected late this evening as storms spread eastward toward southwest KS and the northern Panhandles in association with a nocturnal low-level jet and strengthened warm advection/moisture transport.
Eastern KS/western MO early Saturday
In response to low-level warm advection and returning moisture, elevated convection is probable late in the period across eastern KS/western MO. This area will be near the east edge of the steep midlevel lapse rates, where isolated large hail will be possible. There will also be some potential for evolution into a cluster or two with isolated damaging gusts. Farther north into eastern NE (very near the end of the period) there will be a chance for elevated storms with some hail. This area will be re-evaluated this afternoon in the 20z update.
..Thompson/Chalmers.. 06/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Saturday, June 13
Outlook Summary
One or two evolving thunderstorm clusters appear possible across parts of the central Great Plains and lower Missouri Valley vicinity Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. Some of this activity will pose a risk for producing large hail and swaths of strong, potentially damaging wind gusts.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 30%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 121728
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS…ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA…AND MUCH OF WESTERN THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI
### SUMMARY
One or two evolving thunderstorm clusters appear possible across parts of the central Great Plains and lower Missouri Valley vicinity Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. Some of this activity will pose a risk for producing large hail and swaths of strong, potentially damaging wind gusts.
Discussion
Downstream of amplified mid-level ridging, offshore of the U.S. Pacific coast through British Columbia, it appears that flow will begin to veer to an increasing northwesterly component across and east of the Rockies through this period. Within this regime, substantive mid-level troughing is forecast to dig across the Upper Midwest, to the southwest of a lingering mid-level low centered across northwestern Ontario. Spread within model output remains larger concerning short wave perturbations digging through initially weaker flow across the Missouri through lower Ohio Valleys, and the extent to which they may begin to suppress the northern periphery of subtropical ridging centered over the northern Gulf Basin.
In lower levels, an initial, convective outflow enhanced, surface front overspreading much of the Mid Atlantic through Mid South vicinity will likely already be in the process of weakening at the outset of the period. However, surges of cooler/drier air will continue to develop southward into and through the interior of the U.S., with the general leading edge reaching the lower Great Lakes through Ohio Valley, Ozarks Plateau and Texas South Plains by 12Z Sunday. This may be preceded across the Ohio Valley through western slopes of the Appalachians by outflow from extensive prior convective development.
Central Great Plains into Missouri Valley
The potential for increasing thunderstorm development at the outset of the period across eastern Nebraska into western Iowa (near the nose of an east-northeastward advecting plume of elevated mixed-layer air) coupled with potential for substantive, but weakening, remnant convection from overnight overspreading the Ozark Plateau, contribute to continuing uncertainty concerning subsequent convective development Saturday through Saturday night. The evolution of convective outflows, and their impact on boundary-layer destabilization, coupled with uncertain short wave developments, will substantially impact the timing, location and potential upscale growth of potentially stronger thunderstorm development.
However, beneath the plume of elevated mixed-layer air, a corridor of stronger boundary-layer heating and deeper mixing across Kansas during the day seems to provide the highest certainty for moderate to strong destabilization. Near the nose of this regime, somewhere across eastern Kansas into western Missouri, based on a consensus of model output, low-level warm advection in the presence of weaker inhibition may provide the focus for intensifying thunderstorm development by late afternoon. And there appears a general signal in the model output that a modifying outflow boundary/zone of differential heating may provide a focus for the southeastward development of upscale growing convection toward the Mid South through Saturday night. As this occurs, increasing thunderstorm development also appears probable ahead of the southward advancing cold front across Kansas through Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle vicinity.
Although deep-layer shear may be initially modest, it may still be sufficient to support the evolution of a few supercells capable of producing large hail and potential for a couple tornadoes, before evolving swaths of strong to severe wind gusts become the more prominent threat with organizing clusters into late Saturday evening.
..Kerr.. 06/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Sunday, June 14
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 120653
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday.
Synopsis
An upper shortwave trough will pivot across the Great Lakes to the Northeast on Sunday. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread much of the northeastern U.S. At the surface, a cold front will be oriented from Ohio to the Mid-South, then westward into north/central TX by mid/late afternoon. A seasonally moist airmass will be in place ahead of the front. Pockets of moderate to strong instability will develop across parts of the southern Plains vicinity as the cold front develops southward through the period. Additional areas of moderate to strong destabilization are possible across the Mid-Atlantic vicinity.
Mid-Atlantic
Currently, the best overlap of enhanced west/southwesterly shear and MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg appears to be across the Mid-Atlantic from eastern VA into southeast PA/southern NJ within a moist axis and pre-frontal surface trough. Scattered thunderstorms may develop within this area during peak heating and pose a risk mainly for damaging gusts. Stronger southwesterly flow aloft is expected with northward extent into PA/NY and portions of New England. However, degree of destabilization is uncertain due to cloud cover and possible remnant convection over the Ohio Valley from the Day 2/Saturday period moving across the Upper Ohio Valley early in the period ahead of the surface cold front. Depending on model trends and mesoscale details emanating from prior day convection, severe probability could be adjusted northward in subsequent outlooks.
Southeast NM into the ArkLaTex
Convection will develop near the southward-advancing surface front during the afternoon within a very moist and moderately unstable airmass. Convection may tend to be anafrontal, and storms could quickly become undercut by the front. Nevertheless, isolated strong gusts and hail will be possible with stronger storms.
..Leitman.. 06/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Monday, June 15
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, June 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, June 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, June 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, June 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, June 19 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120736 SPC AC 120736
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-5/Mon-Tue
A surface front will remain across south TX and the Gulf Coast vicinity while broad upper troughing persists east of the Rockies. As a result, severe potential is expected to remain limited as any deep Gulf moisture and stronger instability will remain well removed from any stronger mid/upper flow associated with the upper trough.
Days 6-7/Wed-Thu - Southern Plains to Midwest
A mid/upper shortwave trough will move from the northern Rockies to the MS Valley on Wednesday, and the OH Valley to the Northeast on Thursday. Deepening surface low pressure will shift from the central Plains to the Northeast and southwesterly deep-layer flow increases. This will result in northward transport of Gulf moisture into the Plains/Midwest on Wednesday, and the Northeast by Thursday. This could result in increasing severe potential for portions of these regions. Currently, capping across the Plains my limit storm coverage across that region on Wednesday. Furthermore, timing of greater moisture return across the Midwest ahead of a surface cold front is uncertain. Severe probabilities may be needed eventually, but uncertainty remains too high to introduce unconditional probabilities at this time.
Day 8/Fri
Upper ridging is expected to develop over the Rockies into the Plains by the end of the forecast period. Meanwhile, upper troughing will pivot northeast across New England. Some guidance suggests a shortwave impulse could eject from the Rockies into the central Plains within the broader scale upper ridging. This could support some severe potential, but overall predictability is low given large model spread.
..Leitman.. 06/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, June 16
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, June 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, June 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, June 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, June 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, June 19 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120736 SPC AC 120736
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-5/Mon-Tue
A surface front will remain across south TX and the Gulf Coast vicinity while broad upper troughing persists east of the Rockies. As a result, severe potential is expected to remain limited as any deep Gulf moisture and stronger instability will remain well removed from any stronger mid/upper flow associated with the upper trough.
Days 6-7/Wed-Thu - Southern Plains to Midwest
A mid/upper shortwave trough will move from the northern Rockies to the MS Valley on Wednesday, and the OH Valley to the Northeast on Thursday. Deepening surface low pressure will shift from the central Plains to the Northeast and southwesterly deep-layer flow increases. This will result in northward transport of Gulf moisture into the Plains/Midwest on Wednesday, and the Northeast by Thursday. This could result in increasing severe potential for portions of these regions. Currently, capping across the Plains my limit storm coverage across that region on Wednesday. Furthermore, timing of greater moisture return across the Midwest ahead of a surface cold front is uncertain. Severe probabilities may be needed eventually, but uncertainty remains too high to introduce unconditional probabilities at this time.
Day 8/Fri
Upper ridging is expected to develop over the Rockies into the Plains by the end of the forecast period. Meanwhile, upper troughing will pivot northeast across New England. Some guidance suggests a shortwave impulse could eject from the Rockies into the central Plains within the broader scale upper ridging. This could support some severe potential, but overall predictability is low given large model spread.
..Leitman.. 06/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, June 17
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, June 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, June 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, June 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, June 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, June 19 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120736 SPC AC 120736
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-5/Mon-Tue
A surface front will remain across south TX and the Gulf Coast vicinity while broad upper troughing persists east of the Rockies. As a result, severe potential is expected to remain limited as any deep Gulf moisture and stronger instability will remain well removed from any stronger mid/upper flow associated with the upper trough.
Days 6-7/Wed-Thu - Southern Plains to Midwest
A mid/upper shortwave trough will move from the northern Rockies to the MS Valley on Wednesday, and the OH Valley to the Northeast on Thursday. Deepening surface low pressure will shift from the central Plains to the Northeast and southwesterly deep-layer flow increases. This will result in northward transport of Gulf moisture into the Plains/Midwest on Wednesday, and the Northeast by Thursday. This could result in increasing severe potential for portions of these regions. Currently, capping across the Plains my limit storm coverage across that region on Wednesday. Furthermore, timing of greater moisture return across the Midwest ahead of a surface cold front is uncertain. Severe probabilities may be needed eventually, but uncertainty remains too high to introduce unconditional probabilities at this time.
Day 8/Fri
Upper ridging is expected to develop over the Rockies into the Plains by the end of the forecast period. Meanwhile, upper troughing will pivot northeast across New England. Some guidance suggests a shortwave impulse could eject from the Rockies into the central Plains within the broader scale upper ridging. This could support some severe potential, but overall predictability is low given large model spread.
..Leitman.. 06/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, June 18
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, June 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, June 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, June 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, June 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, June 19 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120736 SPC AC 120736
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-5/Mon-Tue
A surface front will remain across south TX and the Gulf Coast vicinity while broad upper troughing persists east of the Rockies. As a result, severe potential is expected to remain limited as any deep Gulf moisture and stronger instability will remain well removed from any stronger mid/upper flow associated with the upper trough.
Days 6-7/Wed-Thu - Southern Plains to Midwest
A mid/upper shortwave trough will move from the northern Rockies to the MS Valley on Wednesday, and the OH Valley to the Northeast on Thursday. Deepening surface low pressure will shift from the central Plains to the Northeast and southwesterly deep-layer flow increases. This will result in northward transport of Gulf moisture into the Plains/Midwest on Wednesday, and the Northeast by Thursday. This could result in increasing severe potential for portions of these regions. Currently, capping across the Plains my limit storm coverage across that region on Wednesday. Furthermore, timing of greater moisture return across the Midwest ahead of a surface cold front is uncertain. Severe probabilities may be needed eventually, but uncertainty remains too high to introduce unconditional probabilities at this time.
Day 8/Fri
Upper ridging is expected to develop over the Rockies into the Plains by the end of the forecast period. Meanwhile, upper troughing will pivot northeast across New England. Some guidance suggests a shortwave impulse could eject from the Rockies into the central Plains within the broader scale upper ridging. This could support some severe potential, but overall predictability is low given large model spread.
..Leitman.. 06/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, June 19
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, June 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, June 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, June 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, June 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, June 19 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120736 SPC AC 120736
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-5/Mon-Tue
A surface front will remain across south TX and the Gulf Coast vicinity while broad upper troughing persists east of the Rockies. As a result, severe potential is expected to remain limited as any deep Gulf moisture and stronger instability will remain well removed from any stronger mid/upper flow associated with the upper trough.
Days 6-7/Wed-Thu - Southern Plains to Midwest
A mid/upper shortwave trough will move from the northern Rockies to the MS Valley on Wednesday, and the OH Valley to the Northeast on Thursday. Deepening surface low pressure will shift from the central Plains to the Northeast and southwesterly deep-layer flow increases. This will result in northward transport of Gulf moisture into the Plains/Midwest on Wednesday, and the Northeast by Thursday. This could result in increasing severe potential for portions of these regions. Currently, capping across the Plains my limit storm coverage across that region on Wednesday. Furthermore, timing of greater moisture return across the Midwest ahead of a surface cold front is uncertain. Severe probabilities may be needed eventually, but uncertainty remains too high to introduce unconditional probabilities at this time.
Day 8/Fri
Upper ridging is expected to develop over the Rockies into the Plains by the end of the forecast period. Meanwhile, upper troughing will pivot northeast across New England. Some guidance suggests a shortwave impulse could eject from the Rockies into the central Plains within the broader scale upper ridging. This could support some severe potential, but overall predictability is low given large model spread.
..Leitman.. 06/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, June 12
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 30%
- Saturday, June 13
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 30%
- Sunday, June 14
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Monday, June 15
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, June 16
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, June 17
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, June 18
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, June 19
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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