Hayley here
- Do you like
lofi music
whatever music Hayley put on
and terrifyingly loud computer voices? Then stop by the 24/7 ish severe weather live stream!
* stats delayed and were probably not accurate to begin with
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
← back to overviewSPC AC 130520
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
South Florida
Neutral-weak height rises are forecast across the FL Peninsula during the day1 period as midlevel flow gradually weakens across low latitudes, including the eastern Gulf basin/south FL. Latest diagnostic data depicts a weak surface boundary extends across the southern tip of the peninsula, and this feature is forecast to migrate toward the western tip of the south FL Peninsula by the end of the period. Modest daytime heating should contribute to weak buoyancy and scattered convection is expected to develop within this weak-flow regime. Forecast lapse rates/instability appear too weak to warrant a meaningful risk for severe thunderstorms today.
..Darrow/Thornton.. 03/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.
← back to overviewSPC AC 130508
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.
Synopsis and Discussion
On Saturday, a strong upper trough will dig into the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies during the day, and into the northern and central High Plains by 12Z Sunday. To the east, an upper trough will exit New England, with rapid height rises across much of the Northeast overnight.
At the surface, most of the CONUS will remain relatively stable for much of the period with high pressure ridge from the Great Lakes into the Southeast, and extending across the northern Gulf of America. The exception during the day will be over the FL Peninsula, where weak east to southeast winds will maintain mid to upper 60s F dewpoints.
FL
Daytime heating and surface convergence will lead to a few thunderstorms by afternoon over the interior Peninsula and along the Atlantic Coast. Forecast soundings show relatively warm and dry midlevels, with lightly veering winds with height. The end result should be non-severe thunderstorms, though locally gusty winds are always possible.
Elsewhere
Though little thunderstorm activity is expected through Sunday morning, a powerful upper trough will develop across the Rockies and into the High Plains into Sunday. Sporadic lightning cannot be ruled out over western WY and vicinity as the left-exit region of the midlevel jet moves overhead. A surface low will then develop overnight into the central Plains, and this will bring a warm front north into southern IA. Overall moisture at this time appears meager, but isolated lightning cannot totally be ruled out with any highly elevated convective showers Sunday morning across northern IA into MN and WI well north of the warm front.
..Jewell.. 03/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Potential for a widespread damaging wind event along with a few tornadoes exists from Sunday afternoon through Sunday night from northeast Texas to southwest Lower Michigan. The greatest threat appears to be from northeast Arkansas into Indiana during the evening and overnight hours.
← back to overviewSPC AC 130726
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO INDIANA
### SUMMARY
Potential for a widespread damaging wind event along with a few tornadoes exists from Sunday afternoon through Sunday night from northeast Texas to southwest Lower Michigan. The greatest threat appears to be from northeast Arkansas into Indiana during the evening and overnight hours.
Discussion
On Sunday, a powerful upper trough will move across the Plains during the day, with a strong midlevel speed max nosing into MO by 00Z. Shortly thereafter and over the next 12 hours, the trough will rapidly deepen, with an intense mid and high level jet developing across AR, MO, IL and IN.
At the surface, low pressure is forecast to move across northern MO and into IL, with a prominent cold front extending southwestward across MO western AR, and northeast TX. Low-level moisture quality will gradually improve throughout the period, with mid 50s F into southern MO by 00Z and as far north as IN and OH by 12Z Monday morning.
Initial activity will occur along the cold front during the late afternoon where instability will be strongest, perhaps as high as 1000 J/kg from AR into TX. It should be noted that substantial variability exists among models regarding instability and capping, though strong ascent near the front should mitigate these factors. Hail and damaging gusts may occur with the late afternoon activity.
Of greatest concern is potential for a severe squall line capable of widespread wind damage, along with a few tornadoes, developing during the evening across northeast AR, southeast MO, much of southern IL, central and southern IN, western KY and TN. The shear environment will be rapidly increasing during this time, and while forecast soundings show low levels of instability, it will be more than sufficient to sustain a strongly forced QLCS, producing corridors of significant wind damage and a few embedded tornadoes. Southerly winds at 850 mb along the front may exceed 70 kt, with a very strong frontal surge out of the west.
The envelope of greatest threat will likely shift in later outlooks as the event nears and predictability increases.
..Jewell.. 03/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
| Day 4 | Sunday, March 15 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Monday, March 16 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, March 17 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, March 18 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, March 19 | potential too low |
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120815 SPC AC 120815
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Sunday - ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley into the Middle MS/Lower OH Valleys
An intense upper trough will deepen over the Plains and shift east to the MS Valley on Sunday. From late afternoon into the nighttime hours, an 80-100 kt jet streak will develop within the base of the trough and overspread portions of the region. At the surface, an already strong cyclone will deepen further as it moves from the Lower MO Valley to the Lower Great Lakes vicinity. As this occurs, a strong cold front will sweep eastward across the southern Plains and much of the Midwest and Southern U.S., becoming oriented from Ohio to the FL Panhandle by Monday morning.
While strengthening southerly low-level flow will develop ahead of the front, stronger Gulf moisture return will be confined to TX and the Lower MS Valley vicinity, with mainly 50s dewpoints expected with northward extent across the Middle MS and OH Valley regions. Furthermore, capping is expected ahead of the cold front, potentially limiting warm sector convection. Nevertheless, modest moisture and steepening midlevel lapse rates will support at least weak destabilization very near the cold front. A narrow line of strongly-forced convection is expected to develop along the cold front and move across portions of OK/TX into the Middle/Lower MS and Lower OH/TN Valley regions. Given intense deep-layer flow near and just behind the cold front, strong/damaging wind potential will exist within a modest instability/high shear environment. A 15 percent severe delineation has been included from the ArkLaTex into the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley vicinity. Depending on low-level moisture/instability trends, this area may need to be expanded north and east into a larger portion of the Middle MS/Lower OH/TN Valley vicinity in subsequent outlooks.
Day 5/Monday - Southeast to Mid-Atlantic
Severe thunderstorm potential will likely continue into Monday as the intense upper trough continues to migrate east from the MS Valley toward the Eastern Seaboard. Intense deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile, 60s F dewpoints will extend from southeast GA northward through the Mid-Atlantic ahead of a sharp cold front. Pre-frontal surface troughing across the VA/NC Piedmont also will support backing low-level winds, leading to enhanced low-level shear. Depending on how much cloud cover and warm advection precipitation occurs ahead of the cold front, stronger destabilization may be inhibited. Nevertheless, at least weak instability is forecast ahead of a strongly forced line of convection along the eastward-advancing cold front. This activity alone could produce a swath of strong to severe wind gusts. A more conditional risk of supercells across the warm sector exists across eastern VA/NC, but this is more uncertain. Given damaging wind potential with the strongly forced linear convection, a 15 percent severe delineation has been added for portions of the region.
Days 6-8/Tuesday-Thursday
Severe thunderstorm potential will be low Tuesday through Thursday as strong surface high pressure builds in the wake of the earlier cold frontal passage. A dry/stable airmass will prevail as Gulf moisture remains well offshore.
..Leitman.. 03/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
| Day 4 | Sunday, March 15 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Monday, March 16 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, March 17 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, March 18 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, March 19 | potential too low |
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120815 SPC AC 120815
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Sunday - ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley into the Middle MS/Lower OH Valleys
An intense upper trough will deepen over the Plains and shift east to the MS Valley on Sunday. From late afternoon into the nighttime hours, an 80-100 kt jet streak will develop within the base of the trough and overspread portions of the region. At the surface, an already strong cyclone will deepen further as it moves from the Lower MO Valley to the Lower Great Lakes vicinity. As this occurs, a strong cold front will sweep eastward across the southern Plains and much of the Midwest and Southern U.S., becoming oriented from Ohio to the FL Panhandle by Monday morning.
While strengthening southerly low-level flow will develop ahead of the front, stronger Gulf moisture return will be confined to TX and the Lower MS Valley vicinity, with mainly 50s dewpoints expected with northward extent across the Middle MS and OH Valley regions. Furthermore, capping is expected ahead of the cold front, potentially limiting warm sector convection. Nevertheless, modest moisture and steepening midlevel lapse rates will support at least weak destabilization very near the cold front. A narrow line of strongly-forced convection is expected to develop along the cold front and move across portions of OK/TX into the Middle/Lower MS and Lower OH/TN Valley regions. Given intense deep-layer flow near and just behind the cold front, strong/damaging wind potential will exist within a modest instability/high shear environment. A 15 percent severe delineation has been included from the ArkLaTex into the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley vicinity. Depending on low-level moisture/instability trends, this area may need to be expanded north and east into a larger portion of the Middle MS/Lower OH/TN Valley vicinity in subsequent outlooks.
Day 5/Monday - Southeast to Mid-Atlantic
Severe thunderstorm potential will likely continue into Monday as the intense upper trough continues to migrate east from the MS Valley toward the Eastern Seaboard. Intense deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile, 60s F dewpoints will extend from southeast GA northward through the Mid-Atlantic ahead of a sharp cold front. Pre-frontal surface troughing across the VA/NC Piedmont also will support backing low-level winds, leading to enhanced low-level shear. Depending on how much cloud cover and warm advection precipitation occurs ahead of the cold front, stronger destabilization may be inhibited. Nevertheless, at least weak instability is forecast ahead of a strongly forced line of convection along the eastward-advancing cold front. This activity alone could produce a swath of strong to severe wind gusts. A more conditional risk of supercells across the warm sector exists across eastern VA/NC, but this is more uncertain. Given damaging wind potential with the strongly forced linear convection, a 15 percent severe delineation has been added for portions of the region.
Days 6-8/Tuesday-Thursday
Severe thunderstorm potential will be low Tuesday through Thursday as strong surface high pressure builds in the wake of the earlier cold frontal passage. A dry/stable airmass will prevail as Gulf moisture remains well offshore.
..Leitman.. 03/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
| Day 4 | Sunday, March 15 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Monday, March 16 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, March 17 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, March 18 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, March 19 | potential too low |
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120815 SPC AC 120815
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Sunday - ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley into the Middle MS/Lower OH Valleys
An intense upper trough will deepen over the Plains and shift east to the MS Valley on Sunday. From late afternoon into the nighttime hours, an 80-100 kt jet streak will develop within the base of the trough and overspread portions of the region. At the surface, an already strong cyclone will deepen further as it moves from the Lower MO Valley to the Lower Great Lakes vicinity. As this occurs, a strong cold front will sweep eastward across the southern Plains and much of the Midwest and Southern U.S., becoming oriented from Ohio to the FL Panhandle by Monday morning.
While strengthening southerly low-level flow will develop ahead of the front, stronger Gulf moisture return will be confined to TX and the Lower MS Valley vicinity, with mainly 50s dewpoints expected with northward extent across the Middle MS and OH Valley regions. Furthermore, capping is expected ahead of the cold front, potentially limiting warm sector convection. Nevertheless, modest moisture and steepening midlevel lapse rates will support at least weak destabilization very near the cold front. A narrow line of strongly-forced convection is expected to develop along the cold front and move across portions of OK/TX into the Middle/Lower MS and Lower OH/TN Valley regions. Given intense deep-layer flow near and just behind the cold front, strong/damaging wind potential will exist within a modest instability/high shear environment. A 15 percent severe delineation has been included from the ArkLaTex into the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley vicinity. Depending on low-level moisture/instability trends, this area may need to be expanded north and east into a larger portion of the Middle MS/Lower OH/TN Valley vicinity in subsequent outlooks.
Day 5/Monday - Southeast to Mid-Atlantic
Severe thunderstorm potential will likely continue into Monday as the intense upper trough continues to migrate east from the MS Valley toward the Eastern Seaboard. Intense deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile, 60s F dewpoints will extend from southeast GA northward through the Mid-Atlantic ahead of a sharp cold front. Pre-frontal surface troughing across the VA/NC Piedmont also will support backing low-level winds, leading to enhanced low-level shear. Depending on how much cloud cover and warm advection precipitation occurs ahead of the cold front, stronger destabilization may be inhibited. Nevertheless, at least weak instability is forecast ahead of a strongly forced line of convection along the eastward-advancing cold front. This activity alone could produce a swath of strong to severe wind gusts. A more conditional risk of supercells across the warm sector exists across eastern VA/NC, but this is more uncertain. Given damaging wind potential with the strongly forced linear convection, a 15 percent severe delineation has been added for portions of the region.
Days 6-8/Tuesday-Thursday
Severe thunderstorm potential will be low Tuesday through Thursday as strong surface high pressure builds in the wake of the earlier cold frontal passage. A dry/stable airmass will prevail as Gulf moisture remains well offshore.
..Leitman.. 03/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
| Day 4 | Sunday, March 15 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Monday, March 16 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, March 17 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, March 18 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, March 19 | potential too low |
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120815 SPC AC 120815
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Sunday - ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley into the Middle MS/Lower OH Valleys
An intense upper trough will deepen over the Plains and shift east to the MS Valley on Sunday. From late afternoon into the nighttime hours, an 80-100 kt jet streak will develop within the base of the trough and overspread portions of the region. At the surface, an already strong cyclone will deepen further as it moves from the Lower MO Valley to the Lower Great Lakes vicinity. As this occurs, a strong cold front will sweep eastward across the southern Plains and much of the Midwest and Southern U.S., becoming oriented from Ohio to the FL Panhandle by Monday morning.
While strengthening southerly low-level flow will develop ahead of the front, stronger Gulf moisture return will be confined to TX and the Lower MS Valley vicinity, with mainly 50s dewpoints expected with northward extent across the Middle MS and OH Valley regions. Furthermore, capping is expected ahead of the cold front, potentially limiting warm sector convection. Nevertheless, modest moisture and steepening midlevel lapse rates will support at least weak destabilization very near the cold front. A narrow line of strongly-forced convection is expected to develop along the cold front and move across portions of OK/TX into the Middle/Lower MS and Lower OH/TN Valley regions. Given intense deep-layer flow near and just behind the cold front, strong/damaging wind potential will exist within a modest instability/high shear environment. A 15 percent severe delineation has been included from the ArkLaTex into the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley vicinity. Depending on low-level moisture/instability trends, this area may need to be expanded north and east into a larger portion of the Middle MS/Lower OH/TN Valley vicinity in subsequent outlooks.
Day 5/Monday - Southeast to Mid-Atlantic
Severe thunderstorm potential will likely continue into Monday as the intense upper trough continues to migrate east from the MS Valley toward the Eastern Seaboard. Intense deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile, 60s F dewpoints will extend from southeast GA northward through the Mid-Atlantic ahead of a sharp cold front. Pre-frontal surface troughing across the VA/NC Piedmont also will support backing low-level winds, leading to enhanced low-level shear. Depending on how much cloud cover and warm advection precipitation occurs ahead of the cold front, stronger destabilization may be inhibited. Nevertheless, at least weak instability is forecast ahead of a strongly forced line of convection along the eastward-advancing cold front. This activity alone could produce a swath of strong to severe wind gusts. A more conditional risk of supercells across the warm sector exists across eastern VA/NC, but this is more uncertain. Given damaging wind potential with the strongly forced linear convection, a 15 percent severe delineation has been added for portions of the region.
Days 6-8/Tuesday-Thursday
Severe thunderstorm potential will be low Tuesday through Thursday as strong surface high pressure builds in the wake of the earlier cold frontal passage. A dry/stable airmass will prevail as Gulf moisture remains well offshore.
..Leitman.. 03/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.
Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.
SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.