Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Friday, July 24

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail, damaging wind, and possibly a tornado are forecast during the afternoon and evening across portions of North Dakota into northern Minnesota.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 240529

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN ND INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN MN

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail, damaging wind, and possibly a tornado are forecast during the afternoon and evening across portions of North Dakota into northern Minnesota.

Dakotas into northern MN

Within an amplifying upper-level pattern, multiple low-amplitude midlevel shortwave troughs are forecast to move east-southeastward from the northern Rockies toward ND and northern MN through the period. A surface trough will trail southwestward from a deep surface cyclone that will move from northern MB/ON towards Hudson Bay. A plume of relatively steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread a warm and moist boundary layer along/east of the surface trough, with MLCAPE increasing above 2000 J/kg across parts of ND into northwest MN by late afternoon. Strengthening mid/upper-level west-northwesterly flow will result in favorable deep-layer shear, resulting in a conditionally favorable environment for severe storms.

Guidance generally suggests that widely scattered storms will develop along the surface trough by late afternoon across eastern ND. Elongated hodographs and favorable instability will initially favor supercell development, though some clustering will be possible with time into the evening. Large to very large hail will be the primary initial hazard. Some tornado potential could evolve with persistent supercells, as low-level shear gradually increases from late afternoon into the evening. Any organized clustering could result in localized corridors of greater severe-wind potential. Some severe threat could persist as storms move into a larger portion of northern/central MN through late evening, with a general weakening trend expected late in the period due to increasing CINH and weakening buoyancy.

Farther northwest, some guidance depicts isolated supercell development west of the surface trough across the Canadian Prairies during the late afternoon, which could then move into parts of northern/central ND within a northwesterly flow regime. This scenario is more uncertain, but 5% wind/hail probabilities have been expanded westward in response to this potential.

Coastal Carolinas vicinity

Relatively strong heating of a richly moist airmass (PW above 2 inches) will result in the development of moderate buoyancy across parts of the Coastal Carolinas and southeast GA, in the vicinity of a surface front. Scattered storm development is expected by early/mid afternoon. Deep-layer flow will generally be weak, but locally damaging downbursts and outflow winds will be possible within the warm and very moist environment.

Southern High Plains vicinity

A nearly stationary front draped from eastern NM into the TX/OK Panhandles is expected to become a focus for thunderstorm development by late afternoon or early evening. Buoyancy is forecast to remain modest, and deep-layer flow will be weak, so organized storm potential currently appears low. However, strong boundary-layer heating/mixing will support potential for localized downbursts. While magnitude and coverage of the threat currently appear rather limited, wind probabilities may eventually be needed, if confidence increases in more than very localized severe-wind potential.

Parts of the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies

Widely scattered high-based storm development is expected this afternoon from parts of the Great Basin into the northern Rockies, along the periphery of an amplifying upper ridge over the Four Corners region. Buoyancy and deep-layer shear are both expected to remain weak, but strong to locally severe gusts will be possible within the hot and well-mixed regime. Wind probabilities may eventually be needed, if confidence increases in more than a very localized/transient severe-gust threat.

..Dean/Jirak.. 07/24/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Saturday, July 25

Outlook Summary

Isolated severe storms will be possible from the northern Rockies into the upper Midwest, and across portions of southeast Arizona.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 240519

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST…AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA

### SUMMARY

Isolated severe storms will be possible from the northern Rockies into the upper Midwest, and across portions of southeast Arizona.

Synopsis

A prominent mid-level ridge will remain anchored over central North America with the amplification of a downstream trough across the eastern CONUS. At the surface, ridging will be maintained over the Northeast with a weak front along the Southeast coastal areas. That boundary will extend northwest to low pressure over the northern and central Plains.

### Northern Rockies

Forcing for ascent associated with a subtle short-wave trough cresting the ridge axis will combine with heating along the high terrain to foster widely scattered thunderstorm development Saturday afternoon. Area forecast soundings exhibit steep low/mid-level lapse rates, a deeply mixed boundary layer, and MLCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg. Moreover, some enhancement of mid-level flow and resultant vertical shear is forecast, which may support some storm organization with the primary hazard being isolated severe wind gusts.

### South Dakota into the upper Midwest

Cyclogenesis is forecast over western SD along a weak front extending from central MT into MN/WI. The air mass along and south of the boundary in SD is expected to become quite hot with temperatures of 100-110. And while moisture will remain limited, the presence of steep low/mid-level lapse rates will largely contribute to modest instability during the peak of the diurnal heating cycle. Isolated storm development is expected by afternoon into early evening near and south of the front atop the hot, well-mixed boundary layer with latent cooling processes in the sub-cloud layer potentially leading to severe outflow winds.

Farther east into MN and WI, a significantly more moist boundary layer is expected in the vicinity of the front, yielding a moderately to strongly unstable air mass by afternoon. However, notable height rises are forecast with the expansion of the upper ridge into the region, leading to uncertainty in whether surface-based storms will develop due to the strengthening cap. On the condition that storms develop and become sustained, seasonably strong vertical shear will exist to support supercells with the primary hazard being large hail. Low hail and wind probabilities have been included in this forecast to acknowledge the conditional threat.

Saturday night into early Sunday, there is some model signal for elevated storm development along the nocturnal low-level jet. In that scenario, sufficient instability and vertical shear are expected to exist to support some severe weather risk.

### Southeast Arizona

A slight enhancement of easterly mid-level flow is forecast across the region, atop a modestly unstable, but steep-lapse-rate environment. Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop over the Gila Mountains and adjacent high terrain by afternoon with a subsequent movement toward the lower desert floor. Some cold pool organization is possible in areas of storm clustering with an associated risk for locally severe wind gusts.

..Mead.. 07/24/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Sunday, July 26

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms capable of mainly large hail and damaging winds are possible from the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes into portions of the Ohio and mid Missouri Valleys on Sunday and Sunday night.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 240707

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO UPPER MIDWEST

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms capable of mainly large hail and damaging winds are possible from the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes into portions of the Ohio and mid Missouri Valleys on Sunday and Sunday night.

Synopsis

Along the periphery of an upper high anchored over the central and southern Plains, a belt of enhanced mid-level winds will extend from the Pacific Northwest through south-central Canada into the Great Lakes. A series of perturbations will be embedded within the higher-momentum flow regime, the most notable being a disturbance tracking through southern parts of SK and MB into northwest ON and northern MN late Sunday night. A surface low is forecast to follow that same track with an associated trough or weak cool front advancing through the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley.

### Upper Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes

Boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s to mid 70s will coincide with an eastward-expanding EML plume and associated cap to yield a fairly widespread reservoir of moderate to strong instability across the region on Sunday. There is some model signal for a subtle mid-level disturbance to progress from the northern Plains into the upper Midwest during the day with an associated band of forcing for ascent potentially serving as a focus for diurnally enhanced thunderstorm development. However, the absence of discernible surface boundaries and the residual capping leads to uncertainty in the location and extent of diurnally enhanced thunderstorm development. Nonetheless, a conditional severe weather threat will exist with any storms that can become rooted within the boundary layer, given the presence of 35-50 kt deep-layer shear.

More substantial forcing for ascent is forecast Sunday evening into night across the upper MS Valley with the approach of the mid-level wave mentioned in the synopsis. At that time, the surface front will be moving into the area from the west, potentially serving as a focus for thunderstorm development. The 00Z ECMWF in particular depicts a large thunderstorm complex developing over that area with a subsequent southward movement toward the mid MO Valley Sunday night into early Monday. A corridor of enhanced damaging wind potential would exist in that scenario; however, confidence in such an occurrence is presently too low to include higher probabilities and a conditional intensity group 1 contour.

..Mead.. 07/24/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Monday, July 27

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230726 SPC AC 230726

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-5/Sun-Mon – Upper Midwest toward the Ohio Valley

Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Upper Midwest to the Ohio Valley on Sunday and Monday as several shortwave impulses migrate through the area on the eastern periphery of a strong upper ridge over the Plains. A seasonally very moist airmass will reside across much of these areas, supporting strong destabilization each day. On Sunday, a corridor of severe thunderstorm potential appears possible across parts of MN/WI toward northern IA/IL as a weak shortwave impulse initially over the Dakotas spreads east. While details regarding storm coverage remain uncertain, sufficient deep layer shear and strong instability will be in place, and at least isolated storm clusters could pose a risk for damaging winds.

By Monday, an upper shortwave trough will emanating from an upper low near Hudson Bay will dig southward across the Great Lakes. This will result in increasing northwesterly flow aloft. Meanwhile, a surface low may move eastward across the Great Lakes near the international border while a stronger nocturnal low-level jet develops over parts of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This stronger flow will overspread a moist and unstable airmass, and potential for thunderstorm clusters developing into an MCS appears possible.

While details remain uncertain regarding convective evolution and coverage on Sunday and Monday, through broader synoptic pattern appears favorable for at least isolated severe thunderstorms. The 15 percent severe areas may shift some in the coming days as details become more clear.

Days 6-8/Tue-Thu

It is possible some severe potential could shift east/southeast on Tuesday toward the central Appalachians and the Mid-Atlantic. Deep-layer northwesterly flow will not be as strong as prior days, but could still be sufficient for some organized severe risk. Confidence in where greater risk corridors may develop is low, and will largely be influenced by convective evolution in the Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday periods.

A strong upper ridge will shift west across the western U.S. late in the period, bringing a broad area of generally weak deep-layer northwesterly flow to the eastern half of the CONUS. Some thunderstorm potential is likely within this typical summertime pattern across the Plain into the East, but severe potential is uncertain.

..Leitman.. 07/23/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, July 28

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230726 SPC AC 230726

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-5/Sun-Mon – Upper Midwest toward the Ohio Valley

Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Upper Midwest to the Ohio Valley on Sunday and Monday as several shortwave impulses migrate through the area on the eastern periphery of a strong upper ridge over the Plains. A seasonally very moist airmass will reside across much of these areas, supporting strong destabilization each day. On Sunday, a corridor of severe thunderstorm potential appears possible across parts of MN/WI toward northern IA/IL as a weak shortwave impulse initially over the Dakotas spreads east. While details regarding storm coverage remain uncertain, sufficient deep layer shear and strong instability will be in place, and at least isolated storm clusters could pose a risk for damaging winds.

By Monday, an upper shortwave trough will emanating from an upper low near Hudson Bay will dig southward across the Great Lakes. This will result in increasing northwesterly flow aloft. Meanwhile, a surface low may move eastward across the Great Lakes near the international border while a stronger nocturnal low-level jet develops over parts of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This stronger flow will overspread a moist and unstable airmass, and potential for thunderstorm clusters developing into an MCS appears possible.

While details remain uncertain regarding convective evolution and coverage on Sunday and Monday, through broader synoptic pattern appears favorable for at least isolated severe thunderstorms. The 15 percent severe areas may shift some in the coming days as details become more clear.

Days 6-8/Tue-Thu

It is possible some severe potential could shift east/southeast on Tuesday toward the central Appalachians and the Mid-Atlantic. Deep-layer northwesterly flow will not be as strong as prior days, but could still be sufficient for some organized severe risk. Confidence in where greater risk corridors may develop is low, and will largely be influenced by convective evolution in the Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday periods.

A strong upper ridge will shift west across the western U.S. late in the period, bringing a broad area of generally weak deep-layer northwesterly flow to the eastern half of the CONUS. Some thunderstorm potential is likely within this typical summertime pattern across the Plain into the East, but severe potential is uncertain.

..Leitman.. 07/23/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, July 29

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230726 SPC AC 230726

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-5/Sun-Mon – Upper Midwest toward the Ohio Valley

Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Upper Midwest to the Ohio Valley on Sunday and Monday as several shortwave impulses migrate through the area on the eastern periphery of a strong upper ridge over the Plains. A seasonally very moist airmass will reside across much of these areas, supporting strong destabilization each day. On Sunday, a corridor of severe thunderstorm potential appears possible across parts of MN/WI toward northern IA/IL as a weak shortwave impulse initially over the Dakotas spreads east. While details regarding storm coverage remain uncertain, sufficient deep layer shear and strong instability will be in place, and at least isolated storm clusters could pose a risk for damaging winds.

By Monday, an upper shortwave trough will emanating from an upper low near Hudson Bay will dig southward across the Great Lakes. This will result in increasing northwesterly flow aloft. Meanwhile, a surface low may move eastward across the Great Lakes near the international border while a stronger nocturnal low-level jet develops over parts of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This stronger flow will overspread a moist and unstable airmass, and potential for thunderstorm clusters developing into an MCS appears possible.

While details remain uncertain regarding convective evolution and coverage on Sunday and Monday, through broader synoptic pattern appears favorable for at least isolated severe thunderstorms. The 15 percent severe areas may shift some in the coming days as details become more clear.

Days 6-8/Tue-Thu

It is possible some severe potential could shift east/southeast on Tuesday toward the central Appalachians and the Mid-Atlantic. Deep-layer northwesterly flow will not be as strong as prior days, but could still be sufficient for some organized severe risk. Confidence in where greater risk corridors may develop is low, and will largely be influenced by convective evolution in the Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday periods.

A strong upper ridge will shift west across the western U.S. late in the period, bringing a broad area of generally weak deep-layer northwesterly flow to the eastern half of the CONUS. Some thunderstorm potential is likely within this typical summertime pattern across the Plain into the East, but severe potential is uncertain.

..Leitman.. 07/23/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Thursday, July 30

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230726 SPC AC 230726

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-5/Sun-Mon – Upper Midwest toward the Ohio Valley

Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Upper Midwest to the Ohio Valley on Sunday and Monday as several shortwave impulses migrate through the area on the eastern periphery of a strong upper ridge over the Plains. A seasonally very moist airmass will reside across much of these areas, supporting strong destabilization each day. On Sunday, a corridor of severe thunderstorm potential appears possible across parts of MN/WI toward northern IA/IL as a weak shortwave impulse initially over the Dakotas spreads east. While details regarding storm coverage remain uncertain, sufficient deep layer shear and strong instability will be in place, and at least isolated storm clusters could pose a risk for damaging winds.

By Monday, an upper shortwave trough will emanating from an upper low near Hudson Bay will dig southward across the Great Lakes. This will result in increasing northwesterly flow aloft. Meanwhile, a surface low may move eastward across the Great Lakes near the international border while a stronger nocturnal low-level jet develops over parts of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This stronger flow will overspread a moist and unstable airmass, and potential for thunderstorm clusters developing into an MCS appears possible.

While details remain uncertain regarding convective evolution and coverage on Sunday and Monday, through broader synoptic pattern appears favorable for at least isolated severe thunderstorms. The 15 percent severe areas may shift some in the coming days as details become more clear.

Days 6-8/Tue-Thu

It is possible some severe potential could shift east/southeast on Tuesday toward the central Appalachians and the Mid-Atlantic. Deep-layer northwesterly flow will not be as strong as prior days, but could still be sufficient for some organized severe risk. Confidence in where greater risk corridors may develop is low, and will largely be influenced by convective evolution in the Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday periods.

A strong upper ridge will shift west across the western U.S. late in the period, bringing a broad area of generally weak deep-layer northwesterly flow to the eastern half of the CONUS. Some thunderstorm potential is likely within this typical summertime pattern across the Plain into the East, but severe potential is uncertain.

..Leitman.. 07/23/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Friday, July 24

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Saturday, July 25

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 5%

Sunday, July 26

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Monday, July 27

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Tuesday, July 28

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Wednesday, July 29

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Thursday, July 30

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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