Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, August 18
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be possible this afternoon and evening from the central Plains into the lower Missouri Valley, as well as the Upper Midwest. Other storms capable of severe wind gusts and hail will also be possible from the Northern Rockies into the central High Plains this afternoon into tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 181712
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026
Valid 181630Z - 191200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be possible this afternoon and evening from the central Plains into the lower Missouri Valley, as well as the Upper Midwest. Other storms capable of severe wind gusts and hail will also be possible from the Northern Rockies into the central High Plains this afternoon into tonight.
Central Plains into Lower Missouri Valley
Scattered weakening thunderstorms continue across northeast Kansas/southeast Nebraska into northern Missouri, reinforcing a convective boundary that extends across the region. Thunderstorm redevelopment/intensification is conditionally possible through the diurnal heating cycle near the boundary, which would carry with it the potential for at least isolated hail/damaging winds.
A more certain scenario is expected this evening, when thunderstorm development/re-invigoration is more probable as the low-level jet increases. Steep lapse rates and moderate vertical shear support the potential for thunderstorms capable of large hail during the initially more cellular mode. These storms will likely cluster quickly, with a trend towards upscale growth into a forward-propagating MCS with an increasing damaging wind potential as it spreads toward/across Missouri.
Northern Rockies through the Central High Plains
A shortwave trough will progress southeastward from British Columbia/Alberta into the northern Rockies. Thunderstorm development is anticipated across the northern Rockies as this wave interacts with the destabilized and buoyant airmass across the region. Moderate westerly flow aloft with support the potential for more organized storm structures and the development of several line segments. These widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to progress east-southeastward this afternoon/evening, with additional development possible from Wyoming into the central High Plains. The moderate westerly flow aloft, high storm bases, and steep low-level lapse rates support the potential for strong to severe wind gusts and possibly some increased hail potential through evening/early overnight as these storms progress east-southeastward toward the richer reservoir of moisture/buoyancy across the central High Plains, including western Nebraska/northeast Colorado/northwest Kansas.
Upper Midwest including portions of Iowa/Wisconsin/Michigan
Low-level moisture is expected to increase across the Midwest ahead of an approaching cold front, resulting in moderate buoyancy by late afternoon. Near-frontal convergence will influence convective initiation, with the combination of moderate buoyancy and seasonally strong westerly flow aloft supporting strong to severe storms including some initial/semi-discrete supercells, which could yield large hail. A transition into linear segments is expected by evening, with damaging wind gusts becoming the more prevalent severe risk as storms spread generally southeastward.
Mississippi/Alabama to northern Florida
Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon, particularly across portions of Mississippi into western/southern Alabama and northern Florida. These storms will develop amidst a very moist and unstable environment. Vertical shear will be weak, with an outflow-dominant/multicellular mode expected. Some clustering into one or more line segments appears probable, resulting in scattered thunderstorm coverage. Steep low-level lapse rates and relatively high cloud bases support the potential for strong downdrafts capable of locally damaging winds.
..Guyer/Wendt.. 08/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Wednesday, August 19
Outlook Summary
One or two organized clusters of thunderstorms with potential to produce swaths of damaging surface gusts appear possible across parts of the Ozark Plateau into Mid South, and perhaps central and southeastern Arizona, Wednesday through Wednesday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 181730
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI…PARTS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS…WESTERN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS
### SUMMARY
One or two organized clusters of thunderstorms with potential to produce swaths of damaging surface gusts appear possible across parts of the Ozark Plateau into Mid South, and perhaps central and southeastern Arizona, Wednesday through Wednesday night.
Discussion
An initially notable cyclone to the southwest of Hudson Bay is forecast to weaken, with its broadening mid-level circulation redeveloping across and east of southern Hudson/James Bays through this period. To the south of this feature, broad cyclonic mid-level flow will overspread much of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes and Ohio Valley through Northeast, downstream of initially building mid-level ridging across the Pacific Northwest through northern Rockies, to the north of a prominent mid-level high slowly shifting northeastward toward the Four Corners region.
Beneath a plume of elevated mixed-layer now advecting along the southern fringe of the westerlies, across the central Great Plains, toward the Mid South, a lower-level baroclinic zone, likely reinforced by convective outflow, may be in the process of advancing southward across the Mid South/Ozark Plateau and south central Great Plains (Kansas/Oklahoma border vicinity) at the outset of the period. In the wake of one possible MCV initially migrating east-southeastward into the Mid South, and ahead of a possible trailing MCV, and trailing digging short wave impulse, it appears that the southward progression of the front may slow or stall across the Ozark Plateau/Mid South, while continuing more steadily, but slowly, across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. There is substantive spread evident in the model output concerning these developments, however.
Ozark Plateau/Mid South
Potential convective evolution Wednesday through Wednesday night remains uncertain. However, it appears that a notable belt of convectively augmented mid-level flow, including 30-50+ kt around 700 mb, will gradually nose from the lower Missouri through lower Ohio Valley during the day. Depending on how the near-surface boundary becomes oriented as this occurs, aided by a corridor of seasonably high moisture content along it, there appears potential for destabilization and shear to become conducive to organized severe thunderstorm development. This may include supercells and/or one or two evolving clusters accompanied by developing swaths of strong to severe wind gusts through the period.
Southern Rockies into Great Plains
In the wake of the primary front, it appears that the boundary-layer will remain sufficiently moist to support modest instability in the presence of relatively weak mid-level inhibition across the middle into lower Missouri Valley. Aided by forcing for ascent associated with one lead digging short wave impulse, and a trailing one digging into/across the international border, at least widely scattered strong to severe storm development appears possible through the period, in the presence of favorable strong deep-layer shear.
A drier, but more strongly heated and deeply mixed boundary-layer by late Wednesday afternoon, near and to the lee of the Front Range through Sangre de Cristo Mountains, may also become conducive to widely scattered to scattered strong storms with potential to produce severe wind and hail, aided by a weak short wave impulse migrating around the Four Corners ridge.
Arizona
With the evolution/progression of the mid-level ridge, potential steering flow for convective development is forecast to take on a prominent easterly component with weak to modest strength by late Wednesday afternoon across much of the Mogollon Rim through lower deserts. Coupled with a preceding Gulf moisture surge, forecast soundings indicate profiles supportive of at least weak to moderate CAPE, even as the boundary-layer becomes hot and deeply mixed with 40-50F+ surface temperature/dew point spreads by peak afternoon heating. Initially more modest late afternoon instability in the lower deserts around Phoenix may gradually destabilize with boundary-layer moistening after sunset, eventually supporting the propagation of convection into/across the Greater Phoenix area by late evening. Details of the potential convective evolution remain uncertain, but at least some model output suggest the evolution of a substantive convective cluster is possible, which could become accompanied by more widespread strong to severe gusts.
..Kerr.. 08/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Thursday, August 20
Outlook Summary
Scattered strong to severe storms may occur on Thursday from Minnesota into Nebraska and northern Kansas, producing large hail and localized wind damage. Scattered storms may also produce locally severe gusts from eastern Virginia into North Carolinas.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 180727
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS…AND OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA
### SUMMARY
Scattered strong to severe storms may occur on Thursday from Minnesota into Nebraska and northern Kansas, producing large hail and localized wind damage. Scattered storms may also produce locally severe gusts from eastern Virginia into North Carolinas.
Northern Plains
An upper ridge will build over the West on Thursday, with tightening midlevel height gradient over the northern Plains. This will result in increasing winds out of the northwest, with over 40 kt at 500 mb. At the surface, a trough/wind shift is forecast to extend roughly from MN into NE, with steep lapse rates developing. Storms will likely form along this boundary during the afternoon, with scattered cells producing large hail. Some predictability issues exist amongst models, and therefore will defer a categorical upgrade to later updates. The combination of 40+ kt of deep layer shear, steep lapse rates and 60s F dewpoints may support hail at or above 2.00" diameter.
Eastern VA and NC
A mid/upper wave will cross the Appalachians as a surface trough develops during the afternoon. This will bring midlevel winds of 30-40 kt across MD/VA and into northern NC, aiding deep-layer shear as well as overall mean wind speeds. At least isolated severe storms appear possible from eastern VA into NC where 70s F dewpoints will support moderate instability, with favorable afternoon timing supporting localized wind damage.
..Jewell.. 08/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Friday, August 21
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, August 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, August 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, August 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, August 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, August 25 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180824 SPC AC 180824
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
For the Fri/D4 to Tue/D8 period, an upper ridge is forecast to expand from the Four Corners states into the Southern Plains, with northwest flow aloft over the Northern Plains shifting east across Midwest and into the Northeast.
On Fri/D4, scattered storms may occur across the Central Plains and Cornbelt, with areas of moisture and instability beneath the 30-40 kt northwest flow regime favor scattered hail or strong wind gusts. Predictability is low due to the likelihood of ongoing storms or convective systems early in the day, which may affect air mass quality and effective boundary positioning. However, the NE/KS/IA/MO region appears to be the most likely area for an eventual risk area.
Also on Fri/D4, storms are again expected over parts of the Mid Atlantic to Carolinas, where 25 kt southwest flow in the midlevels and a surface trough will support scattered storm clusters producing locally damaging gusts. Areas of ongoing storms or outflows from the previous day's convection may have an impact here as well as far as the most favorable zones for additional severe storms.
There may also be some potential on Sat/D5 to Sun/D6 over parts of the Mid Atlantic as cooling aloft with an upper trough moves across the area. Timing of this trough will be critical, as will the movement of the associated cold front.
..Jewell.. 08/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, August 22
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, August 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, August 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, August 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, August 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, August 25 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180824 SPC AC 180824
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
For the Fri/D4 to Tue/D8 period, an upper ridge is forecast to expand from the Four Corners states into the Southern Plains, with northwest flow aloft over the Northern Plains shifting east across Midwest and into the Northeast.
On Fri/D4, scattered storms may occur across the Central Plains and Cornbelt, with areas of moisture and instability beneath the 30-40 kt northwest flow regime favor scattered hail or strong wind gusts. Predictability is low due to the likelihood of ongoing storms or convective systems early in the day, which may affect air mass quality and effective boundary positioning. However, the NE/KS/IA/MO region appears to be the most likely area for an eventual risk area.
Also on Fri/D4, storms are again expected over parts of the Mid Atlantic to Carolinas, where 25 kt southwest flow in the midlevels and a surface trough will support scattered storm clusters producing locally damaging gusts. Areas of ongoing storms or outflows from the previous day's convection may have an impact here as well as far as the most favorable zones for additional severe storms.
There may also be some potential on Sat/D5 to Sun/D6 over parts of the Mid Atlantic as cooling aloft with an upper trough moves across the area. Timing of this trough will be critical, as will the movement of the associated cold front.
..Jewell.. 08/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, August 23
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, August 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, August 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, August 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, August 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, August 25 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180824 SPC AC 180824
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
For the Fri/D4 to Tue/D8 period, an upper ridge is forecast to expand from the Four Corners states into the Southern Plains, with northwest flow aloft over the Northern Plains shifting east across Midwest and into the Northeast.
On Fri/D4, scattered storms may occur across the Central Plains and Cornbelt, with areas of moisture and instability beneath the 30-40 kt northwest flow regime favor scattered hail or strong wind gusts. Predictability is low due to the likelihood of ongoing storms or convective systems early in the day, which may affect air mass quality and effective boundary positioning. However, the NE/KS/IA/MO region appears to be the most likely area for an eventual risk area.
Also on Fri/D4, storms are again expected over parts of the Mid Atlantic to Carolinas, where 25 kt southwest flow in the midlevels and a surface trough will support scattered storm clusters producing locally damaging gusts. Areas of ongoing storms or outflows from the previous day's convection may have an impact here as well as far as the most favorable zones for additional severe storms.
There may also be some potential on Sat/D5 to Sun/D6 over parts of the Mid Atlantic as cooling aloft with an upper trough moves across the area. Timing of this trough will be critical, as will the movement of the associated cold front.
..Jewell.. 08/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, August 24
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, August 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, August 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, August 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, August 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, August 25 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180824 SPC AC 180824
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
For the Fri/D4 to Tue/D8 period, an upper ridge is forecast to expand from the Four Corners states into the Southern Plains, with northwest flow aloft over the Northern Plains shifting east across Midwest and into the Northeast.
On Fri/D4, scattered storms may occur across the Central Plains and Cornbelt, with areas of moisture and instability beneath the 30-40 kt northwest flow regime favor scattered hail or strong wind gusts. Predictability is low due to the likelihood of ongoing storms or convective systems early in the day, which may affect air mass quality and effective boundary positioning. However, the NE/KS/IA/MO region appears to be the most likely area for an eventual risk area.
Also on Fri/D4, storms are again expected over parts of the Mid Atlantic to Carolinas, where 25 kt southwest flow in the midlevels and a surface trough will support scattered storm clusters producing locally damaging gusts. Areas of ongoing storms or outflows from the previous day's convection may have an impact here as well as far as the most favorable zones for additional severe storms.
There may also be some potential on Sat/D5 to Sun/D6 over parts of the Mid Atlantic as cooling aloft with an upper trough moves across the area. Timing of this trough will be critical, as will the movement of the associated cold front.
..Jewell.. 08/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, August 25
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, August 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, August 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, August 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, August 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, August 25 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180824 SPC AC 180824
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
For the Fri/D4 to Tue/D8 period, an upper ridge is forecast to expand from the Four Corners states into the Southern Plains, with northwest flow aloft over the Northern Plains shifting east across Midwest and into the Northeast.
On Fri/D4, scattered storms may occur across the Central Plains and Cornbelt, with areas of moisture and instability beneath the 30-40 kt northwest flow regime favor scattered hail or strong wind gusts. Predictability is low due to the likelihood of ongoing storms or convective systems early in the day, which may affect air mass quality and effective boundary positioning. However, the NE/KS/IA/MO region appears to be the most likely area for an eventual risk area.
Also on Fri/D4, storms are again expected over parts of the Mid Atlantic to Carolinas, where 25 kt southwest flow in the midlevels and a surface trough will support scattered storm clusters producing locally damaging gusts. Areas of ongoing storms or outflows from the previous day's convection may have an impact here as well as far as the most favorable zones for additional severe storms.
There may also be some potential on Sat/D5 to Sun/D6 over parts of the Mid Atlantic as cooling aloft with an upper trough moves across the area. Timing of this trough will be critical, as will the movement of the associated cold front.
..Jewell.. 08/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, August 18
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Wednesday, August 19
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Thursday, August 20
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Friday, August 21
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, August 22
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, August 23
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, August 24
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, August 25
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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