Severe Weather Outlook
Hayley here - Do you want to see severe weather in your calendar?
* it's like an add-on for your digital calendar NOT a paper calendar
National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, September 19
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with scattered severe wind gusts and large hail are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 192003
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026
Valid 192000Z - 201200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with scattered severe wind gusts and large hail are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains.
20z Update
### Central High Plains into western Kansas
Latest CAM and TLE guidance continue to provide some indications that a linear cluster or two will persist into western, and perhaps even central Kansas, after 00z tonight. This may allow a somewhat greater risk for hail/wind gusts to persist farther west into Kansas. Uncertainty regarding the evolution and downstream persistence of these clusters through the overnight hours precludes further expansion at this time, however.
Central New Mexico
Widely scattered thunderstorms with some marginal supercell structures have formed across portions of central New Mexico over the past 1-2 hours. The 18z ABQ observed sounding depicted around 750 J/kg MLCAPE with ~30 kts of effective shear and 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7 C/km. While this could support a brief/localized threat for damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail, observations and recent CAM/TLE guidance suggest the spatial/temporal window for any localized severe risk remains quite narrow. Thus, the general severe risk appears to be less than 5% across this region.
Ohio Valley
Latest observations continue to depict a well defined outflow boundary arching southwestward from north of Columbus, OH, into southern IL/IN. Convection has largely struggled to sustain along this boundary, likely owing to the surging character of the outflow and limited deep-layer wind shear. The northern edge of the Level 1/Marginal Risk area was trimmed slightly where temperatures well behind the outflow boundary have fallen into the upper-70s F and are thus expected to limit further convective development this afternoon/evening.
Elsewhere, the forecast remains generally on track, with only minor changes made to the existing outlook. See the discussion below and MCDs #2309 and #2310 for additional information.
..Chalmers/Wendt.. 09/19/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026/
Ohio Valley
Recent surface analysis places a weak low over northern IN, along the northern end of an outflow boundary that is pushing southward/south-southeastward across central IL and central IN. Airmass south of this boundary is very moist, with dewpoints generally in the upper 60s to low 70s. Filtered heating is anticipated across this region today, with the resulting warm and moist conditions supporting moderate buoyancy. The strongest buoyancy is expected from southern IN into southwest OH and adjacent far northern KY. The surging character of the outflow combined with limited deep-layer vertical shear results in uncertainty regarding how thunderstorms will evolve this afternoon, with at least some potential for a predominance of undercut, poorly organized updrafts. That being said, potential also exists for just enough buoyancy/shear balance for a few stronger, more persistent bowing clusters. Steep low-level lapse rates will promote strong to severe gusts with any more persistent line segments that develop.
Southern Appalachians/Southeast
Warm and moist conditions will support airmass destabilization and the potential of afternoon/evening thunderstorms across the region. The region is largely void of coherent surface features, so any convective initiation would likely be tied to mesoscale areas of low-level confluence. Widely scattered to scattered storms are forecast during the afternoon, and a few stronger water-loaded downdrafts capable of 50 to 60 mph gusts are possible.
Central and Southern Plains/Lower Missouri Valley
Recent surface analysis places a low over southwest IA, with a cold front extending back southwestward through southwest KS and the central OK Panhandle into the northwest TX Panhandle. This front is expected to slowly push south while larger-scale mid-level troughing over the Great Basin and central Rockies gradually shifts eastward. A seasonably moist airmass is in place ahead of the cold front, and moderate buoyancy is expected as this airmass heats and destabilizes this afternoon.
Low-level convergence along the cold front, augmented by modest large-scale forcing for ascent, will support scattered storm development during the late afternoon and early evening as convective inhibition is locally eroded. Given adequate speed and directional shear, a few short-lived supercells are possible early in the convective cycle, particularly across KS. Large hail will be possible with the stronger updrafts. Thereafter, high-based storm character coupled with steep low-level lapse rates will support strong to severe gusts, including the potential for a few gusts of 60 to 75 mph.
Central High Plains
Low-level easterly flow across the central High Plains will help maintain at least upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints across the region this afternoon/evening. The low-amplitude shortwave trough currently moving through northern NV/UT is forecast to continue eastward, interacting with this moist and unstable airmass to support scattered thunderstorm development. With time, strengthening mid-level flow will help support upscale growth from a loosely organized band of a storms (including some supercells) to a more organized linear cluster. Some hail is possible early with the more cellular development, with wind gusts becoming more likely with time. There is some indication this activity may continue into western KS during the late evening and early overnight.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Sunday, September 20
Outlook Summary
A few severe wind and hail producing thunderstorms are possible over eastern Colorado on Sunday, with severe gusts also possible with storms over portions of Oklahoma. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible from the Ozarks to the central Appalachians.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 191658
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA
### SUMMARY
A few severe wind and hail producing thunderstorms are possible over eastern Colorado on Sunday, with severe gusts also possible with storms over portions of Oklahoma. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible from the Ozarks to the central Appalachians.
Central/Southern Plains
A weak upper shortwave trough will move across the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains on Sunday. This will bring modestly enhanced mid/upper westerly flow to the region. At the surface, easterly upslope flow is expected across eastern CO into the OK/TX Panhandles. Vertically veering wind profiles will foster 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. Steepening midlevel lapse rates and modest MLCAPE (500-1500 J/kg) amid favorable vertical shear profiles will foster potential for organized updrafts capable of isolated large hail. Surface temperatures will be somewhat cool, but strong heating will result in steepening low-level lapse rates as well, and isolated gusty outflow winds also will be possible.
Further south into the OK/TX Panhandle vicinity, somewhat better boundary layer moisture will be in place in the vicinity of a cold front. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon and may pose a risk for isolated marginal hail and gusty winds. Further east across OK, a surface low is forecast across western portions of the state, with a cold front extending southwest to northeast across north-central/northeast OK. Rich boundary layer moisture is forecast near and east of the front, supporting moderate instability (1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) where stronger heating occurs. Early day showers and cloud cover introduces some uncertainty regarding location of better severe risk during the afternoon/evening, but isolated to scattered thunderstorm clusters will pose a risk of wind damage and perhaps isolate hail across parts of OK into north TX.
Ozark to Ohio Valley
A surface cold front will extend west to east from central MO to central OH by midday. A seasonally moist airmass and strong heating ahead of the boundary will support widely scattered thunderstorm develop as the front develops south through the afternoon/evening. Weak vertical shear will limit longevity/organization of stronger storm updrafts. Nevertheless, moderate instability (1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) and steepened low-level lapse rates will support some risk for isolated damaging gusts. Cool temperatures aloft may also support marginal hail in the stronger updraft pulses.
Central Appalachians
Thunderstorms are expected to develop near higher terrain along a surface trough Sunday afternoon across parts WV/VA. Vertical shear and midlevel lapse rates are expected to remain weak. However, a moist airmass will support modest instability and steepening low-level lapse rates will aid in isolated strong outflow gusts, perhaps resulting in sporadic wind damage.
..Leitman.. 09/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Monday, September 21
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms over parts of the southern and central Appalachians on Monday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 191911
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms over parts of the southern and central Appalachians on Monday.
Central/Southern Appalachians
Mainly zonal flow will overspread the eastern CONUS on Monday. While weak westerly flow aloft is forecast, a surface cold front will continue to develop southward across the Midwest, TN Valley and central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic regions. A moist airmass ahead of the front, characterized by 60s to low 70s F dewpoints, will support a corridor of moderate instability (1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) from the eastern TN Valley toward the southern/central Appalachians. Where stronger heating occurs, steepened low-level lapse rates are forecast. Sufficient instability coupled with steep low-level lapse rates and PW values around 1.75 inches may support sporadic strong gusts from wet microbursts across parts of the TN Valley into southern VA and western/central NC.
..Leitman.. 09/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Tuesday, September 22
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, September 22 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, September 23 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, September 24 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, September 25 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, September 26 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190824 SPC AC 190824
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
An initially zonal mid-level flow regime will gradually transition to a more amplified upper-air pattern, characterized by ridging over the Plains states through the week into next weekend. As this occurs, low-level moisture will continue to be shunted southward as cooler mid-level temperatures remain relatively confined west of the Rockies, and flow aloft remains modest at best. As a result, there are no clear signals for an organized threat of severe thunderstorms across the CONUS for Days 4-8 (Tuesday-Saturday).
..Squitieri.. 09/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, September 23
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, September 22 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, September 23 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, September 24 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, September 25 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, September 26 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190824 SPC AC 190824
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
An initially zonal mid-level flow regime will gradually transition to a more amplified upper-air pattern, characterized by ridging over the Plains states through the week into next weekend. As this occurs, low-level moisture will continue to be shunted southward as cooler mid-level temperatures remain relatively confined west of the Rockies, and flow aloft remains modest at best. As a result, there are no clear signals for an organized threat of severe thunderstorms across the CONUS for Days 4-8 (Tuesday-Saturday).
..Squitieri.. 09/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, September 24
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, September 22 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, September 23 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, September 24 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, September 25 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, September 26 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190824 SPC AC 190824
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
An initially zonal mid-level flow regime will gradually transition to a more amplified upper-air pattern, characterized by ridging over the Plains states through the week into next weekend. As this occurs, low-level moisture will continue to be shunted southward as cooler mid-level temperatures remain relatively confined west of the Rockies, and flow aloft remains modest at best. As a result, there are no clear signals for an organized threat of severe thunderstorms across the CONUS for Days 4-8 (Tuesday-Saturday).
..Squitieri.. 09/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, September 25
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, September 22 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, September 23 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, September 24 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, September 25 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, September 26 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190824 SPC AC 190824
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
An initially zonal mid-level flow regime will gradually transition to a more amplified upper-air pattern, characterized by ridging over the Plains states through the week into next weekend. As this occurs, low-level moisture will continue to be shunted southward as cooler mid-level temperatures remain relatively confined west of the Rockies, and flow aloft remains modest at best. As a result, there are no clear signals for an organized threat of severe thunderstorms across the CONUS for Days 4-8 (Tuesday-Saturday).
..Squitieri.. 09/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, September 26
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, September 22 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, September 23 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, September 24 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, September 25 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, September 26 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190824 SPC AC 190824
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
An initially zonal mid-level flow regime will gradually transition to a more amplified upper-air pattern, characterized by ridging over the Plains states through the week into next weekend. As this occurs, low-level moisture will continue to be shunted southward as cooler mid-level temperatures remain relatively confined west of the Rockies, and flow aloft remains modest at best. As a result, there are no clear signals for an organized threat of severe thunderstorms across the CONUS for Days 4-8 (Tuesday-Saturday).
..Squitieri.. 09/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, September 19
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Sunday, September 20
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Monday, September 21
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Tuesday, September 22
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, September 23
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, September 24
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, September 25
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, September 26
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Your Severe Outlook
Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.
Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.
Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.
About Severe Weather Outlook . com
SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.
- tornado hq - live severe weather warnings
- cyclocane - hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones
- tornado solitaire - play cards while you monitor the US severe weather threat
- tertremo - live view of earthquakes around the world
- earthquake solitaire - get live earthquake updates as you play your favorite card game