Severe Weather Outlook
Hayley here - Do you want to see severe weather in your calendar?
* it's like an add-on for your digital calendar NOT a paper calendar
National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, June 24
Outlook Summary
Widely scattered severe storms are possible across the central High Plains today with a threat for large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. More isolated severe storms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest, Ozarks to Mississippi, and across northern Utah.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 240606
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
### THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH
### SUMMARY
Widely scattered severe storms are possible across the central High Plains today with a threat for large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. More isolated severe storms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest, Ozarks to Mississippi, and across northern Utah.
Synopsis
Current satellite imagery depicts upper ridging centered over northern Mexico, covering much of the Southeast and Texas. This imagery also shows an upper low centered near the ND/MN/Manitoba border intersection. These features are expected to remain largely in place throughout the day Wednesday, with a belt of moderate mid-level flow extending from the northern/central High Plains into mid MS Valley between these two features. Most guidance shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving within this westerly flow across the Dakotas to the Upper MS Valley. A convectively augmented vorticity maximum is also forecast to arc through the northern periphery of the Southwest upper ridging, moving across the western Great Basin during the afternoon before then continuing eastward across the central Rockies during the evening/overnight. Evolution of these features, in addition to continued eastward/southeastward progress of any overnight convective complexes, will result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms from the Intermountain West to the MS Valley. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over a few areas within this larger region, including northern/central UT, the Upper MS Valley, and from the central/southern High Plains into AR/MS.
Central/Southern High Plains
Low-level moisture will remain over the lower elevations of the southern and central High Plains on Wednesday, combining with strong heating and steep mid-level lapse rates to support the development of strong buoyancy by late afternoon. Thunderstorms are possible across the majority of the region, with the highest coverage anticipated from south-central/southeast WY into northeast/east-central CO, where buoyancy is maximized as well. Deep-layer shear will be quite strong within this corridor as well, with 0-6 km shear from 55 to 65 kt possible. These conditions support the potential for robust supercells capable of large to very large hail. Hail from 3" to 4" in diameter is possible. Notable low-level curvature of the hodograph could support a tornado or two in this region as well, although the weak winds around 700 mb could result in slow supercell motion and potential for more storm interactions. Eventual upscale growth into forward-propagating MCS capable of strong to severe gusts is probable.
Lower storm coverage is anticipated farther south, with warmer temperatures and higher cloud bases suggesting a predominantly outflow-dominant storm mode. Strong to severe gusts will be the primary risk, although some isolated hail is possible as well.
Great Basin
Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the region during the afternoon, as the convectively augmented vorticity maximum mentioned in the synopsis interacts with modest mid-level moisture and resulting buoyancy. A deeply-mixed sub-cloud layer will support potential thunderstorms capable of damaging winds, particularly across northern UT where higher thunderstorm coverage is anticipated.
Upper Midwest
A modest surface low, attendant to the low-amplitude shortwave trough moving across the Dakotas to the Upper MS Valley, is forecast to shift eastward just ahead of the parent shortwave. Temperatures are forecast to warm into the 70s ahead this low, which should be sufficient for modest buoyancy given the low 60s dewpoints. The belt of stronger mid-level flow will also support moderate vertical shear (i.e. around 40 of 0-6 km shear) and the potential for more organized storm structures capable of large hail and damaging gusts.
South-Central KS/OK/Arklatex into MS
Evolution of the thunderstorms ongoing across eastern CO will significantly influence the early-day severe storm potential across the region. Current expectation is for some remnant of whatever cluster develops to be over south-central KS/north-central OK at the start of the period, perhaps beginning to interact with the western extent of a zone of warm-air advection showers and thunderstorms extending from north-central OK into southern AR/northern LA. Low predictability limits forecast confidence, but some limited severe potential, both within the cluster and within the more cellular warm-air advection storms, could exist in the morning if this scenario materializes. The downstream airmass will be very moist, and is forecast to destabilize as temperatures climb into the low 80s. This could lead to a reintensification of the cluster and/or new development along its outflow. Deep-layer shear will be weak, but strong updrafts could result in enough water loading to produce a few strong gusts as the cluster continues southeastward.
Southern MS/AL
Some guidance indicates the cluster currently moving across northern LA restrengthens as it moves through southern MS and southern AL later this morning/afternoon. Like the areas farther northwest, this region will be weakly sheared, but a few stronger water-loaded gusts are possible.
..Mosier/Chalmers.. 06/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Thursday, June 25
Outlook Summary
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across portions of the High Plains with a threat for large hail and severe wind. Storms are also expected across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma into the Ozarks where large hail, severe winds, and a few tornadoes are all possible.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 240558
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO THE OZARKS.
### SUMMARY
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across portions of the High Plains with a threat for large hail and severe wind. Storms are also expected across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma into the Ozarks where large hail, severe winds, and a few tornadoes are all possible.
Synopsis
A low-amplitude shortwave trough will move through the Great Lakes during the day on Thursday. A weak surface low will move across Ontario with a trailing cold front into the Ohio Valley. Farther west, several mid-level shortwave troughs will be embedded within the broader zonal flow across the Plains. The most prominant feature will be a mid-level shortwave trough that is forecast to move from eastern Colorado Thursday morning to the Ozarks by the evening. A lee surface cyclone is forecast in the Texas Panhandle vicinity.
High Plains
Widespread convection/cloud cover is likely from northern Colorado into eastern Wyoming on Thursday morning. This will limit surface-based instability across the region for much of the day. Eventual destabilization is expected by late afternoon/early evening as the cloud cover clears. As a mid-level shortwave trough moves through Wyoming, expect storms to develop during the evening with some severe wind potential. The lack of strong heating has lessened hail and significant wind potential across this region. Therefore, the CIG1 area has been removed.
Farther south, stronger heating/destabilization is expected which, combined with moderate mid-level flow, may support some supercell threat with weak upslope flow across southeast Kansas, and continuing east along the frontal boundary into the OK/TX Panhandles.
Northern Oklahoma/southern Kansas into the Ozarks
A morning MCS is expected to move along/north of a frontal zone across Kansas during the morning on Thursday. In the wake of this morning MCS, strong destabilization is forecast with moderate mid-level flow aloft. Therefore, supercells are expected to develop on the remnant outflow/frontal zone Thursday afternoon and evening from southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma potentially into the Ozarks. Given storm motion that should be parallel to the boundary, the enhanced vorticity along this zone could result in a locally greater tornado threat. In addition, most guidance shows a strengthening low-level jet across Oklahoma and into southern Kansas. This may support a strong tornado threat, particularly during the evening.
Eastern Ohio to southern New York
Weak to moderate instability is expected to develop across eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania Thursday morning with dewpoints in the mid 60s. Moderate to strong forcing on the leading edge of a compact mid-level jet streak should result in storm development along the front by mid-afternoon. Strong shear should assist in storm organization, but weak lapse rates may limit overall updraft strength. Due to the weak to moderate instability and strong shear, 5% wind probabilities are warranted.
..Bentley.. 06/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Friday, June 26
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, June 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, June 27 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Sunday, June 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, June 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, June 30 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230847 SPC AC 230847
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
D5/Saturday - Northern Plains
A strong mid-level trough will move into the Northwest on Saturday with strong mid-level flow extending around the base of this trough. The leading edge of this stronger mid-level flow will emerge over the northern Plains on Saturday with a lee cyclone forecast near the MT/SD/WY border. Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop as mid to upper 60s dewpoints advect northward. Strong to severe storms appear likely during the afternoon and evening as the lead shortwave trough emerges and the low-level jet strengthens. There is still some uncertainty with the location/timing of the lead shortwave trough which may require some shifting of the probabilities at a later time. However, confidence in severe weather in the general region is high enough to add 15 percent probabilities.
D6/Sunday - Northern Plains Vicinity
On Sunday, as the primary jet streak emerges across the northern Plains, severe weather will also be possible across North Dakota and vicinity. However, the evolution of the upper trough/jet streak is a bit more uncertain and therefore, the area with this greater concern is less clear. Eventual severe weather probabilities seem likely, but will not be added until guidance comes into better agreement regarding the upper-level pattern.
D7/Monday - Upper Midwest
As the mid-level trough shifts east on Monday, the stronger mid-level flow may overspread an unstable warm sector across parts of the Upper Midwest. Considerable uncertainty regarding the upper trough evolution and position of the surface features preclude inclusion of probabilities at this time.
..Bentley.. 06/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, June 27
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, June 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, June 27 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Sunday, June 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, June 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, June 30 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230847 SPC AC 230847
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
D5/Saturday - Northern Plains
A strong mid-level trough will move into the Northwest on Saturday with strong mid-level flow extending around the base of this trough. The leading edge of this stronger mid-level flow will emerge over the northern Plains on Saturday with a lee cyclone forecast near the MT/SD/WY border. Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop as mid to upper 60s dewpoints advect northward. Strong to severe storms appear likely during the afternoon and evening as the lead shortwave trough emerges and the low-level jet strengthens. There is still some uncertainty with the location/timing of the lead shortwave trough which may require some shifting of the probabilities at a later time. However, confidence in severe weather in the general region is high enough to add 15 percent probabilities.
D6/Sunday - Northern Plains Vicinity
On Sunday, as the primary jet streak emerges across the northern Plains, severe weather will also be possible across North Dakota and vicinity. However, the evolution of the upper trough/jet streak is a bit more uncertain and therefore, the area with this greater concern is less clear. Eventual severe weather probabilities seem likely, but will not be added until guidance comes into better agreement regarding the upper-level pattern.
D7/Monday - Upper Midwest
As the mid-level trough shifts east on Monday, the stronger mid-level flow may overspread an unstable warm sector across parts of the Upper Midwest. Considerable uncertainty regarding the upper trough evolution and position of the surface features preclude inclusion of probabilities at this time.
..Bentley.. 06/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, June 28
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, June 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, June 27 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Sunday, June 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, June 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, June 30 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230847 SPC AC 230847
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
D5/Saturday - Northern Plains
A strong mid-level trough will move into the Northwest on Saturday with strong mid-level flow extending around the base of this trough. The leading edge of this stronger mid-level flow will emerge over the northern Plains on Saturday with a lee cyclone forecast near the MT/SD/WY border. Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop as mid to upper 60s dewpoints advect northward. Strong to severe storms appear likely during the afternoon and evening as the lead shortwave trough emerges and the low-level jet strengthens. There is still some uncertainty with the location/timing of the lead shortwave trough which may require some shifting of the probabilities at a later time. However, confidence in severe weather in the general region is high enough to add 15 percent probabilities.
D6/Sunday - Northern Plains Vicinity
On Sunday, as the primary jet streak emerges across the northern Plains, severe weather will also be possible across North Dakota and vicinity. However, the evolution of the upper trough/jet streak is a bit more uncertain and therefore, the area with this greater concern is less clear. Eventual severe weather probabilities seem likely, but will not be added until guidance comes into better agreement regarding the upper-level pattern.
D7/Monday - Upper Midwest
As the mid-level trough shifts east on Monday, the stronger mid-level flow may overspread an unstable warm sector across parts of the Upper Midwest. Considerable uncertainty regarding the upper trough evolution and position of the surface features preclude inclusion of probabilities at this time.
..Bentley.. 06/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, June 29
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, June 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, June 27 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Sunday, June 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, June 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, June 30 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230847 SPC AC 230847
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
D5/Saturday - Northern Plains
A strong mid-level trough will move into the Northwest on Saturday with strong mid-level flow extending around the base of this trough. The leading edge of this stronger mid-level flow will emerge over the northern Plains on Saturday with a lee cyclone forecast near the MT/SD/WY border. Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop as mid to upper 60s dewpoints advect northward. Strong to severe storms appear likely during the afternoon and evening as the lead shortwave trough emerges and the low-level jet strengthens. There is still some uncertainty with the location/timing of the lead shortwave trough which may require some shifting of the probabilities at a later time. However, confidence in severe weather in the general region is high enough to add 15 percent probabilities.
D6/Sunday - Northern Plains Vicinity
On Sunday, as the primary jet streak emerges across the northern Plains, severe weather will also be possible across North Dakota and vicinity. However, the evolution of the upper trough/jet streak is a bit more uncertain and therefore, the area with this greater concern is less clear. Eventual severe weather probabilities seem likely, but will not be added until guidance comes into better agreement regarding the upper-level pattern.
D7/Monday - Upper Midwest
As the mid-level trough shifts east on Monday, the stronger mid-level flow may overspread an unstable warm sector across parts of the Upper Midwest. Considerable uncertainty regarding the upper trough evolution and position of the surface features preclude inclusion of probabilities at this time.
..Bentley.. 06/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, June 30
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, June 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, June 27 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Sunday, June 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, June 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, June 30 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230847 SPC AC 230847
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
D5/Saturday - Northern Plains
A strong mid-level trough will move into the Northwest on Saturday with strong mid-level flow extending around the base of this trough. The leading edge of this stronger mid-level flow will emerge over the northern Plains on Saturday with a lee cyclone forecast near the MT/SD/WY border. Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop as mid to upper 60s dewpoints advect northward. Strong to severe storms appear likely during the afternoon and evening as the lead shortwave trough emerges and the low-level jet strengthens. There is still some uncertainty with the location/timing of the lead shortwave trough which may require some shifting of the probabilities at a later time. However, confidence in severe weather in the general region is high enough to add 15 percent probabilities.
D6/Sunday - Northern Plains Vicinity
On Sunday, as the primary jet streak emerges across the northern Plains, severe weather will also be possible across North Dakota and vicinity. However, the evolution of the upper trough/jet streak is a bit more uncertain and therefore, the area with this greater concern is less clear. Eventual severe weather probabilities seem likely, but will not be added until guidance comes into better agreement regarding the upper-level pattern.
D7/Monday - Upper Midwest
As the mid-level trough shifts east on Monday, the stronger mid-level flow may overspread an unstable warm sector across parts of the Upper Midwest. Considerable uncertainty regarding the upper trough evolution and position of the surface features preclude inclusion of probabilities at this time.
..Bentley.. 06/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, June 24
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Thursday, June 25
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Friday, June 26
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, June 27
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Sunday, June 28
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, June 29
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, June 30
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Your Severe Outlook
Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.
Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.
Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.
About Severe Weather Outlook . com
SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.
- tornado hq - live severe weather warnings
- cyclocane - hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones
- tornado solitaire - play cards while you monitor the US severe weather threat
- tertremo - live view of earthquakes around the world
- earthquake solitaire - get live earthquake updates as you play your favorite card game