Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, June 29
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are expected today across the Dakotas, Upper Midwest and Middle Missouri Valley, including damaging winds, large hail and a few tornadoes this afternoon through tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 30%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 291654
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
Valid 291630Z - 301200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are expected today across the Dakotas, Upper Midwest and Middle Missouri Valley, including damaging winds, large hail and a few tornadoes this afternoon through tonight.
Dakotas/Mid-Missouri Valley/Upper Midwest
Of short-term focus/concern, is a long-lived storm cluster across north-central Minnesota that has begun to grow upscale again to the north of a warm front. Damaging winds and large hail will be prominent concerns this afternoon, and tornado potential may increase particularly with southern flank development near the warm front. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1379.
Later this afternoon, a very moist airmass will become very unstable over parts of the central Plains into the Upper Midwest, including recovery in the wake of the early day storm complex across Minnesota. While lesser instability is expected north-northwestward into North Dakota, more modest buoyancy and long hodographs will support severe storms. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast by afternoon/early evening as large-scale ascent associated with the approaching upper wave overspreads the region. Ample deep-layer shear coupled with the large buoyancy will favor supercells. Large to very large hail, a couple of tornadoes, and severe wind gusts will be possible with this surface-based activity, especially as storms grow upscale this evening and progress into/across parts of Iowa/Minnesota.
Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas
Isolated high-based thunderstorms are possible near the dryline. Moderate instability is expected within this region with generally weak deep layer shear. Strong evaporatively cooled downdrafts will be capable of severe wind gusts with the more intense cores.
Southern Appalachians and parts of Georgia/Florida
Strong to locally severe storms capable of downbursts will be possible within a moist/unstable environment this afternoon, with some degree of storm organization possible as aided by a modestly stronger belt of northeasterly flow aloft.
..Guyer/Supinie.. 06/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Tuesday, June 30
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms will be possible from parts of the central High Plains into the Upper Midwest, and across parts of the Northeast on Tuesday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 291719
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
Valid 301200Z - 011200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN…PARTS OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT…AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms will be possible from parts of the central High Plains into the Upper Midwest, and across parts of the Northeast on Tuesday.
Northeast
Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft on the northeastern periphery of an amplified upper ridge will overspread the region on Tuesday. This area will also be on the southerly periphery of a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet oriented across Ontario/Quebec. This will support effective shear magnitudes around 40+ kt. Supercell structures will be possible, but most guidance suggests convection will develop into one or more forward propagating clusters/bowing segments. Damaging wind gusts will be the main hazard with this activity as it moves across a very moist and moderately unstable airmass. Given supercell wind profiles and enlarged, favorably curved hodographs, a couple of tornadoes also will be possible, especially if a more semi-discrete storm mode occurs. While details in convective evolution vary some among various guidance, a consistent signal exists (particularly across northern NY into VT) and a Slight risk (Level 2 of 5) has been included. Convection should gradually decrease in intensity with southeast extent toward southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic vicinity as instability decreases and inhibition increases.
Upper Midwest/Great Lakes
An upper low and attendant shortwave trough initially over the Canadian Prairies and northern MN will gradually shift east/northeast through the period. Height tendencies will generally be neutral across the area given the strong upper ridge just to the east. Enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will persist across the region, with some intensification of a low-level jet by late afternoon/evening. At the surface, a quasi-stationary boundary is forecast to extend from near the MN Arrowhead, southward into eastern NE at midday. To the south/east of the boundary, a very moist airmass with 70s dewpoints is forecast. A corridor of strong to extreme instability is depicted by some model guidance across northern WI into the U.P. of Michigan. Convection may develop near the surface boundary and shift east across northern portions of the Great Lakes. If this occurs, damaging winds (some near 80 mph) could accompany thunderstorm clusters potentially organizing into a bowing MCS.
Some guidance develops additional convection overnight across parts of southern MN/WI into northern IA and vicinity. This activity would be supported by a warm front lifting northward across the central Plains and Mid-MO Valley and an intensifying southwesterly low-level jet. While ample instability will exist across the area, it is uncertain if this activity would be surfaced-based. Nevertheless, a favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment would support some severe wind/hail risk.
Southern/Central High Plains
Modest height falls are forecast as a midlevel shortwave impulse ejected across the central Rockies into NE/SD from late afternoon into the overnight hours. A surface trough/dryline will sharpen as a result, and southerly low-level flow will transport low 60s dewpoints northward along the boundary beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. High-based convection is expected to develop by late afternoon and shift east/northeast through evening. Initial supercells could produce large to very large hail. With time, some upscale development could occur via consolidating outflows and as the low-level jet increases during the evening. This could bring an increasing risk for damaging winds, a few possibly approaching 80 mph. Given a consistent signal across various CAMs, deterministic and ML/AI guidance, a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) has been added.
LA/MS/AL/GA/FL Panhandle
Forecast guidance depicts 25-35 kt midlevel northeasterly flow on the southern periphery of an upper high centered over the OH/TN Valley. A very moist airmass will be present across much of the region and strong destabilization is forecast amid strong daytime heating. Forecast soundings depict around 20-30 kt effective shear magnitudes, supporting some risk of organized cells/clusters. Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible as activity develops west/southwest through early evening.
..Leitman.. 06/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Wednesday, July 1
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe storms will again be possible from the central Plains into the Upper Midwest as well the Northeast on Wednesday. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main concerns.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 291900
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES…AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe storms will again be possible from the central Plains into the Upper Midwest as well the Northeast on Wednesday. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main concerns.
Synopsis
The overall synoptic pattern will not changes much from Day 2/Tuesday into Day 3/Wednesday. The upper ridge over the eastern U.S. may shift slightly east while an upper trough persists over the West. A series of midlevel shortwave impulses will migrate across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity. Enhanced mid/upper flow will persist from the Dakotas into the Great Lakes and over the Northeast.
Upper Midwest/Great Lakes
A quasi-stationary boundary is forecast to extend from northern WI toward southeast SD Wednesday morning. This boundary may slowly lift northward during the afternoon. The evolution of this boundary will largely be influenced by morning convection that may be ongoing near/north of the boundary across parts of MN/WI at the beginning of the period. Given a very moist airmass, strong to extreme instability is forecast near and south of the boundary. Morning convection could weaken as it lifts north of the boundary, or it could intensify through the day as destabilization occurs, spreading east across the Upper Great Lakes. Another round of convection may develop during the late afternoon into the nighttime hours along the boundary as well. While convective evolution is uncertain, the thermodynamic and kinematic parameter space will support a risk for severe wind gusts and large hail. Enhanced low-level shear near the surface boundary could also result in a corridor of tornado potential. Higher severe probabilities will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks as mesoscale details and convective evolution become more clear and forecast confidence increases.
Northeast
Large-scale ascent will not be as strong across the region on Wednesday, though forecast guidance does show a shortwave impulse or MCV moving across the area as it crosses the international border from Canada. A very moist and strongly unstable airmass will be in place and strengthening mid/upper northwesterly flow will support some organized severe risk. However, storm coverage remains uncertain. Strong downburst winds and isolated large hail will be possible. The wind risk could increase if sufficient storm coverage/interaction results in clustering/bowing segments, but this scenario is uncertain given a lack of stronger low-level jet. Trends will be monitored and higher severe probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks.
Central High Plains
A surface trough will extend southward from western SD/NE into eastern CO/NM on Wednesday. Southerly low-level flow will maintain modest boundary layer moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. Southerly flow through around 500 mb will be somewhat weak, though southwesterly flow increases substantially above that. This could be sufficient for weakly organized convection developing within upslope flow along the surface trough Wednesday afternoon/evening. Given weaker instability and more modest vertical shear compared to previous days, severe potential is more uncertain. However, strong outflow gusts still appear possible given a deeply mixed boundary layer and inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles.
Southeast
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely to develop on the southern periphery of the upper anticyclone Wednesday afternoon. A very moist and strongly unstable airmass will be in place, but vertical shear appears a bit weaker compared to Day 2/Tuesday. Storm coverage is uncertain, but some risk for locally strong gusts may develop, especially if sufficient clustering can occur to promote forward propagation.
..Leitman.. 06/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Thursday, July 2
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, July 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, July 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, July 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, July 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, July 6 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290859 SPC AC 290859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
The broad trough in the West and ridge in the East will persist through the remainder of the week. A moist airmass across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies will support repeated days of convective activity. Large-scale forcing will remain weak, but shortwave troughs emanating from the western trough will promote development within the Plains and the Upper Midwest where a stalled surface boundary will be positioned. Both Thursday and Friday show potential for MCS development from Nebraska into the Dakotas. Friday will likely have a more prominent shortwave trough as a lifting mechanism. Where this potential severe weather will be focused is not certain given the expected convection that will occur each day prior. For Saturday, some models show the shortwave trough moving into the Upper Midwest where another round of convection may occur. Severe probabilities are certainly possible in the coming days as confidence continues to increase.
Another area to watch this week will be the Northeast. Here, stronger northwesterly flow at mid levels will continue into part of the weekend. Depending on how the shortwave trough evolves in the Upper Midwest, this feature may eventually move into the Northeast and promote thunderstorm development late this weekend into next week. Predictability remains too low for highlights, however.
..Wendt.. 06/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, July 3
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, July 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, July 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, July 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, July 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, July 6 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290859 SPC AC 290859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
The broad trough in the West and ridge in the East will persist through the remainder of the week. A moist airmass across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies will support repeated days of convective activity. Large-scale forcing will remain weak, but shortwave troughs emanating from the western trough will promote development within the Plains and the Upper Midwest where a stalled surface boundary will be positioned. Both Thursday and Friday show potential for MCS development from Nebraska into the Dakotas. Friday will likely have a more prominent shortwave trough as a lifting mechanism. Where this potential severe weather will be focused is not certain given the expected convection that will occur each day prior. For Saturday, some models show the shortwave trough moving into the Upper Midwest where another round of convection may occur. Severe probabilities are certainly possible in the coming days as confidence continues to increase.
Another area to watch this week will be the Northeast. Here, stronger northwesterly flow at mid levels will continue into part of the weekend. Depending on how the shortwave trough evolves in the Upper Midwest, this feature may eventually move into the Northeast and promote thunderstorm development late this weekend into next week. Predictability remains too low for highlights, however.
..Wendt.. 06/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, July 4
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, July 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, July 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, July 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, July 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, July 6 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290859 SPC AC 290859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
The broad trough in the West and ridge in the East will persist through the remainder of the week. A moist airmass across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies will support repeated days of convective activity. Large-scale forcing will remain weak, but shortwave troughs emanating from the western trough will promote development within the Plains and the Upper Midwest where a stalled surface boundary will be positioned. Both Thursday and Friday show potential for MCS development from Nebraska into the Dakotas. Friday will likely have a more prominent shortwave trough as a lifting mechanism. Where this potential severe weather will be focused is not certain given the expected convection that will occur each day prior. For Saturday, some models show the shortwave trough moving into the Upper Midwest where another round of convection may occur. Severe probabilities are certainly possible in the coming days as confidence continues to increase.
Another area to watch this week will be the Northeast. Here, stronger northwesterly flow at mid levels will continue into part of the weekend. Depending on how the shortwave trough evolves in the Upper Midwest, this feature may eventually move into the Northeast and promote thunderstorm development late this weekend into next week. Predictability remains too low for highlights, however.
..Wendt.. 06/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, July 5
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, July 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, July 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, July 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, July 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, July 6 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290859 SPC AC 290859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
The broad trough in the West and ridge in the East will persist through the remainder of the week. A moist airmass across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies will support repeated days of convective activity. Large-scale forcing will remain weak, but shortwave troughs emanating from the western trough will promote development within the Plains and the Upper Midwest where a stalled surface boundary will be positioned. Both Thursday and Friday show potential for MCS development from Nebraska into the Dakotas. Friday will likely have a more prominent shortwave trough as a lifting mechanism. Where this potential severe weather will be focused is not certain given the expected convection that will occur each day prior. For Saturday, some models show the shortwave trough moving into the Upper Midwest where another round of convection may occur. Severe probabilities are certainly possible in the coming days as confidence continues to increase.
Another area to watch this week will be the Northeast. Here, stronger northwesterly flow at mid levels will continue into part of the weekend. Depending on how the shortwave trough evolves in the Upper Midwest, this feature may eventually move into the Northeast and promote thunderstorm development late this weekend into next week. Predictability remains too low for highlights, however.
..Wendt.. 06/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, July 6
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, July 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, July 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, July 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, July 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, July 6 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290859 SPC AC 290859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
The broad trough in the West and ridge in the East will persist through the remainder of the week. A moist airmass across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies will support repeated days of convective activity. Large-scale forcing will remain weak, but shortwave troughs emanating from the western trough will promote development within the Plains and the Upper Midwest where a stalled surface boundary will be positioned. Both Thursday and Friday show potential for MCS development from Nebraska into the Dakotas. Friday will likely have a more prominent shortwave trough as a lifting mechanism. Where this potential severe weather will be focused is not certain given the expected convection that will occur each day prior. For Saturday, some models show the shortwave trough moving into the Upper Midwest where another round of convection may occur. Severe probabilities are certainly possible in the coming days as confidence continues to increase.
Another area to watch this week will be the Northeast. Here, stronger northwesterly flow at mid levels will continue into part of the weekend. Depending on how the shortwave trough evolves in the Upper Midwest, this feature may eventually move into the Northeast and promote thunderstorm development late this weekend into next week. Predictability remains too low for highlights, however.
..Wendt.. 06/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, June 29
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 30%
- Tuesday, June 30
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Wednesday, July 1
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Thursday, July 2
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, July 3
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, July 4
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, July 5
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, July 6
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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