Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, October 1
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected the remainder tonight into early Friday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 020039
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 PM CDT Thu Oct 01 2026
Valid 020100Z - 021200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected the remainder tonight into early Friday.
01z Update
Severe probabilities have been removed from northwest OK/southwest KS. Instability has largely diminished with loss of daytime heating and in the wake of a surface cold front. Ahead of the front, instability will continue to diminish, along with deep-layer flow, while nocturnal cooling promotes increasing low-level inhibition. This should largely preclude severe thunderstorm potential the remainder of the forecast period.
..Leitman.. 10/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Friday, October 2
Outlook Summary
No severe thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. on Friday or Friday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 011654
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CDT Thu Oct 01 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
No severe thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. on Friday or Friday night.
Discussion
An energetic polar branch of westerlies will exist over the northern CONUS, featuring a low-amplitude trough progressing from the Great Lakes into the Northeast, and an upstream system moving through the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. At lower latitudes, a positively tilted trough initially from the lower MO Valley into the southern High Plains will become increasingly cut off from the higher-momentum flow to the north. At the surface, a cold front initially from the lower Great Lakes through the confluence of the MS and OH Rivers into the southern Plains will advance south, reaching the southern Mid-Atlantic through the TN Valley to the TX Coast by 12Z Saturday.
A broken band of showers and thunderstorms is expected to be ongoing along a substantial portion of the cold front Friday morning. A subset of the early-day precipitation is likely to linger into the afternoon, limiting air mass destabilization in those areas. Where stronger heating can occur, the presence of a moist boundary layer will yield corridors of moderate instability, which in turn will support an increase in storm coverage through the diurnal heating cycle. Poor mid-level lapse rates and generally weak vertical shear are expected to limit severe weather potential at locations that experience thunderstorms. A possible exception is from southern New England into the Mid-Atlantic Friday afternoon, where stronger deep-layer shear is forecast to overlie the frontal zone. There, forecast soundings indicate warm mid-level temperatures, which are likely to temper updraft intensity and depth (and perhaps even lightning production). On the condition that sufficient instability develops to sustain surface-based storms, locally gusty winds appear possible owing to the downward transfer of stronger flow aloft.
..Mead.. 10/01/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Saturday, October 3
Outlook Summary
No severe thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. on Saturday and Saturday night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 011855
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Thu Oct 01 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
No severe thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. on Saturday and Saturday night.
Discussion
A polar branch short-wave trough is forecast to amplify while progressing from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes. At the surface, an associated cold front will advance through the northern Plains and upper Midwest with a pocket of cool mid-level temperatures (e.g., -14 to -18 C at 500 mb) and resultant steepening of mid-level lapse rates contributing to widely scattered thunderstorms, a few of which could contain small hail. Elsewhere, another boundary will settle slowly south into the Carolinas and western and central Gulf Coast states. A moist and at least marginally unstable air mass will exist to the south of that feature with thunderstorms possible from portions of the southern Plains into the Carolinas and Southeast. Weak vertical shear is forecast across the warm sector, which, coupled with weak mid-level lapse rates and forcing for ascent, is expected to limit severe weather potential.
..Mead.. 10/01/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Sunday, October 4
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, October 4 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, October 5 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, October 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, October 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, October 8 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010900 SPC AC 010900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Oct 01 2026
Valid 041200Z - 091200Z
DISCUSSION
Early next week, a large-scale upper-level trough will move from the Great Lakes region into the western Atlantic, as mid-level flow become west-northwesterly over much of the nation. At the surface, a large surface high will be dominant on Sunday and Monday from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast.
Further west into the Great Plains, a cold front is forecast to advance southeastward through the Dakotas on Tuesday. Ahead of the front, moisture advection is expected over the Great Plains. By Tuesday afternoon, an axis of instability should be in place from western Kansas into north-central Nebraska. Along and near the instability axis, an isolated severe threat will be possible from late afternoon into the evening. On Wednesday, the axis of instability is forecast to shift southeastward into the mid Missouri Valley. An isolated severe threat will again be possible near and ahead of the front from late afternoon into the evening.
By Thursday, model forecasts move an upper-level trough into the Great Lakes, as a subtle shortwave ridge moves through the central U.S. A relatively dry and cool airmass over much of the U.S. is expected to make thunderstorm development unlikely in most areas.
..Broyles.. 10/01/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, October 5
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, October 4 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, October 5 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, October 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, October 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, October 8 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010900 SPC AC 010900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Oct 01 2026
Valid 041200Z - 091200Z
DISCUSSION
Early next week, a large-scale upper-level trough will move from the Great Lakes region into the western Atlantic, as mid-level flow become west-northwesterly over much of the nation. At the surface, a large surface high will be dominant on Sunday and Monday from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast.
Further west into the Great Plains, a cold front is forecast to advance southeastward through the Dakotas on Tuesday. Ahead of the front, moisture advection is expected over the Great Plains. By Tuesday afternoon, an axis of instability should be in place from western Kansas into north-central Nebraska. Along and near the instability axis, an isolated severe threat will be possible from late afternoon into the evening. On Wednesday, the axis of instability is forecast to shift southeastward into the mid Missouri Valley. An isolated severe threat will again be possible near and ahead of the front from late afternoon into the evening.
By Thursday, model forecasts move an upper-level trough into the Great Lakes, as a subtle shortwave ridge moves through the central U.S. A relatively dry and cool airmass over much of the U.S. is expected to make thunderstorm development unlikely in most areas.
..Broyles.. 10/01/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, October 6
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, October 4 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, October 5 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, October 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, October 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, October 8 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010900 SPC AC 010900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Oct 01 2026
Valid 041200Z - 091200Z
DISCUSSION
Early next week, a large-scale upper-level trough will move from the Great Lakes region into the western Atlantic, as mid-level flow become west-northwesterly over much of the nation. At the surface, a large surface high will be dominant on Sunday and Monday from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast.
Further west into the Great Plains, a cold front is forecast to advance southeastward through the Dakotas on Tuesday. Ahead of the front, moisture advection is expected over the Great Plains. By Tuesday afternoon, an axis of instability should be in place from western Kansas into north-central Nebraska. Along and near the instability axis, an isolated severe threat will be possible from late afternoon into the evening. On Wednesday, the axis of instability is forecast to shift southeastward into the mid Missouri Valley. An isolated severe threat will again be possible near and ahead of the front from late afternoon into the evening.
By Thursday, model forecasts move an upper-level trough into the Great Lakes, as a subtle shortwave ridge moves through the central U.S. A relatively dry and cool airmass over much of the U.S. is expected to make thunderstorm development unlikely in most areas.
..Broyles.. 10/01/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, October 7
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, October 4 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, October 5 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, October 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, October 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, October 8 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010900 SPC AC 010900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Oct 01 2026
Valid 041200Z - 091200Z
DISCUSSION
Early next week, a large-scale upper-level trough will move from the Great Lakes region into the western Atlantic, as mid-level flow become west-northwesterly over much of the nation. At the surface, a large surface high will be dominant on Sunday and Monday from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast.
Further west into the Great Plains, a cold front is forecast to advance southeastward through the Dakotas on Tuesday. Ahead of the front, moisture advection is expected over the Great Plains. By Tuesday afternoon, an axis of instability should be in place from western Kansas into north-central Nebraska. Along and near the instability axis, an isolated severe threat will be possible from late afternoon into the evening. On Wednesday, the axis of instability is forecast to shift southeastward into the mid Missouri Valley. An isolated severe threat will again be possible near and ahead of the front from late afternoon into the evening.
By Thursday, model forecasts move an upper-level trough into the Great Lakes, as a subtle shortwave ridge moves through the central U.S. A relatively dry and cool airmass over much of the U.S. is expected to make thunderstorm development unlikely in most areas.
..Broyles.. 10/01/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, October 8
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, October 4 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, October 5 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, October 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, October 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, October 8 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010900 SPC AC 010900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Oct 01 2026
Valid 041200Z - 091200Z
DISCUSSION
Early next week, a large-scale upper-level trough will move from the Great Lakes region into the western Atlantic, as mid-level flow become west-northwesterly over much of the nation. At the surface, a large surface high will be dominant on Sunday and Monday from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast.
Further west into the Great Plains, a cold front is forecast to advance southeastward through the Dakotas on Tuesday. Ahead of the front, moisture advection is expected over the Great Plains. By Tuesday afternoon, an axis of instability should be in place from western Kansas into north-central Nebraska. Along and near the instability axis, an isolated severe threat will be possible from late afternoon into the evening. On Wednesday, the axis of instability is forecast to shift southeastward into the mid Missouri Valley. An isolated severe threat will again be possible near and ahead of the front from late afternoon into the evening.
By Thursday, model forecasts move an upper-level trough into the Great Lakes, as a subtle shortwave ridge moves through the central U.S. A relatively dry and cool airmass over much of the U.S. is expected to make thunderstorm development unlikely in most areas.
..Broyles.. 10/01/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, October 1
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Friday, October 2
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Saturday, October 3
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Sunday, October 4
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, October 5
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, October 6
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, October 7
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, October 8
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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