Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, September 13
Outlook Summary
Strong to locally severe storms are possible across parts of upper Ohio Valley and Northeast this afternoon and evening. Isolated strong to severe storms are also possible across parts of the central and northern High Plains.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 130558
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST…AND ALSO ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Strong to locally severe storms are possible across parts of upper Ohio Valley and Northeast this afternoon and evening. Isolated strong to severe storms are also possible across parts of the central and northern High Plains.
Parts of the Ohio Valley to the Northeast
A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to amplify as it moves across the Great Lakes region toward the Northeast through tonight. A surface low will move across Quebec, as a trailing cold front moves through the eastern Great Lakes and Northeast this afternoon and evening. The strongest deep-layer flow and large-scale ascent will tend to lag the cold front, but some strengthening of flow in the 700-500 mb layer is expected across the warm sector this afternoon, resulting in favorable wind profiles for organized convection.
Moderate buoyancy is expected to develop by late afternoon as CINH weakens, and widely scattered storm development is eventually expected along/ahead of the front. Despite the favorable wind profiles, weak midlevel lapse rates and modest ascent may tend to limit updraft intensity. Guidance continues to vary regarding the magnitude of severe potential, with the 00Z HRRR/RRFS more aggressive in developing organized convection (and possible supercells), while other HREF guidance depicts generally weak convection.
Localized damaging wind and isolated hail may accompany the strongest storms. If later observational and guidance trends support the more aggressive scenario, then greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed.
Central/northern High Plains
A mid/upper-level low/trough initially over the Pacific Northwest will move toward the northern Rockies and High Plains through the period. Diurnal destabilization will generally be limited ahead of this trough, though a narrow zone of moderate buoyancy may develop by late afternoon from northeast CO into southeast WY and the NE Panhandle. Isolated storm development will be possible, with sufficient deep-layer shear for at least transient storm organization and isolated severe hail/wind potential.
While any diurnal storms may tend to weaken through the evening, elevated convection is expected to increase in coverage across western/central SD tonight. Moderate elevated buoyancy and sufficient effective shear could support an isolated severe threat with the initial elevated storm development across western SD, though storm interference and weakening buoyancy may tend to limit the longevity and eastward extent of the threat.
Parts of MT into northwest ND
Increasing ascent associated with the approaching mid/upper-level low/trough will result in elevated storm development this evening across MT, which will spread into northwest ND overnight. Generally weak buoyancy is currently expected to limit organized severe potential, though small hail and locally gusty winds could accompany the strongest storms.
..Dean/Halbert.. 09/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Monday, September 14
Outlook Summary
An isolated severe thunderstorm or two, and perhaps a small organizing cluster of storms, may impact parts of eastern Nebraska into western Iowa late Monday afternoon into early evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 130442
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL IOWA
### SUMMARY
An isolated severe thunderstorm or two, and perhaps a small organizing cluster of storms, may impact parts of eastern Nebraska into western Iowa late Monday afternoon into early evening.
Discussion
Latest model output remains generally unchanged from prior runs concerning the large-scale pattern evolution through this period. To the east of a still fairly prominent mid-level high slowly beginning to shift eastward across the northeastern Pacific, a number of short wave perturbations are forecast to dig through multiple branches of westerlies across the Pacific coast and higher latitudes of northwestern North America into the Canadian Prairies.
As this occurs, and downstream mid/upper ridging becomes increasingly prominent across the southern Great Plains through lower Great Lakes and north Mid Atlantic Seaboard, a notable remnant mid-level cyclonic circulation is forecast to accelerate more rapidly east-northeast of the northern U.S. Rockies, across the international border into northwestern Ontario by late Monday night. It appears that this will be accompanied by fairly significant surface cyclogenesis, and considerable strengthening of south to southwesterly lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields across much of the northern U.S. Great Plains through Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region.
While an associated increase in vertical shear will contribute to an environment conditionally supportive of organized severe weather potential, destabilization within the evolving warm sector remains much more uncertain. Fairly widespread weak, elevated convection may overspread much of the northern Great Plains and middle to lower Missouri through Upper Midwest and adjacent Great Lakes region, reinforcing a relatively cool/stable boundary-layer to the north of a stalled surface frontal zone across the lower Missouri Valley through central Great Plains, before it begins to retreat northward.
Southern Mid Missouri Valley into central Great Plains
There does appear a general consensus within/among the model output that the northward retreating low-level baroclinic zone may reach the southern fringe of the westerlies, across parts of Nebraska through Iowa by late Monday afternoon. It appears possible that boundary-layer moistening will contribute to a corridor of destabilization supportive of scattered vigorous thunderstorm development through the late afternoon and evening.
Particularly where the southern periphery of a strong southerly low-level jet impinges on this front, across the eastern Nebraska into western Iowa vicinity, at least some guidance continues to suggest a scenario where the environment could become supportive of the evolution of an isolated intense supercell into small upscale growing cluster for a period late Monday afternoon into evening.
..Kerr.. 09/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Tuesday, September 15
Outlook Summary
Scattered strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor south to southwest of the Great Lakes through the lower Missouri Valley Tuesday afternoon and evening, accompanied by at least some risk for locally damaging wind gusts.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 130704
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING IN A CORRIDOR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Scattered strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor south to southwest of the Great Lakes through the lower Missouri Valley Tuesday afternoon and evening, accompanied by at least some risk for locally damaging wind gusts.
Discussion
A deamplifying mid-level short wave trough and associated surface cyclone are forecast to continue an east-northeastward migration through this period, generally across the remainder of northwestern Ontario through much of northern Quebec by late Tuesday night. In the wake of the cyclone, an initial low-level baroclinic zone across the lower Great Lakes region through the lower Missouri Valley and central Great Plains may make some southward progression, before stalling and perhaps retreating northward beneath the building northwestern periphery of prominent ridging still centered across the Southeast. There is variance among the guidance concerning this latter development, and the evolution of digging upstream mid-level troughing across the northern Intermountain Region and Pacific Coast.
Southern Great Lakes through central Great Plains
Mainly where mid-level heights remain suppressed, prior to the onset of the mid-level height rises, coincident with daytime boundary-layer destabilization along and southeast of the slow moving frontal zone, a corridor of increasing, scattered thunderstorm development appears possible through mid to late Tuesday afternoon. Steepening low-level lapse rates may support the evolution of moderate mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 1000-2000+ J/kg, near the modest southern fringe of the mid-level westerlies, which may still include speeds of 30+ kts in the 700-500 mb layer. A warm layer in mid/upper levels may tend to suppress large hail, but thermodynamic profiles characterized by steep lapse rates of potential wet-bulb temperatures in lower/mid-levels could contribute to a few downbursts and developing cold pools with a few strong gusts into Tuesday evening.
..Kerr.. 09/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Wednesday, September 16
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 16 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, September 17 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, September 18 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, September 19 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, September 20 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130820 SPC AC 130820
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range model output indicates that the initially prominent Southeastern mid-level ridge will slowly retrograde west-southwestward and become increasingly suppressed across the lower latitudes late this coming work week into next weekend. However, it appears that the evolving westerlies across the U.S. will remain modest to weak, with little potential for appreciable surface cyclogenesis. While guidance suggests some continuing potential for widely scattered strong thunderstorm development near a lingering frontal zone across the Ohio into lower Missouri Valley on Wednesday, it appears that this will diminish thereafter, with generally negligible risk for organized severe thunderstorm potential into and through next weekend.
..Kerr.. 09/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, September 17
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 16 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, September 17 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, September 18 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, September 19 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, September 20 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130820 SPC AC 130820
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range model output indicates that the initially prominent Southeastern mid-level ridge will slowly retrograde west-southwestward and become increasingly suppressed across the lower latitudes late this coming work week into next weekend. However, it appears that the evolving westerlies across the U.S. will remain modest to weak, with little potential for appreciable surface cyclogenesis. While guidance suggests some continuing potential for widely scattered strong thunderstorm development near a lingering frontal zone across the Ohio into lower Missouri Valley on Wednesday, it appears that this will diminish thereafter, with generally negligible risk for organized severe thunderstorm potential into and through next weekend.
..Kerr.. 09/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, September 18
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 16 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, September 17 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, September 18 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, September 19 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, September 20 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130820 SPC AC 130820
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range model output indicates that the initially prominent Southeastern mid-level ridge will slowly retrograde west-southwestward and become increasingly suppressed across the lower latitudes late this coming work week into next weekend. However, it appears that the evolving westerlies across the U.S. will remain modest to weak, with little potential for appreciable surface cyclogenesis. While guidance suggests some continuing potential for widely scattered strong thunderstorm development near a lingering frontal zone across the Ohio into lower Missouri Valley on Wednesday, it appears that this will diminish thereafter, with generally negligible risk for organized severe thunderstorm potential into and through next weekend.
..Kerr.. 09/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, September 19
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 16 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, September 17 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, September 18 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, September 19 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, September 20 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130820 SPC AC 130820
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range model output indicates that the initially prominent Southeastern mid-level ridge will slowly retrograde west-southwestward and become increasingly suppressed across the lower latitudes late this coming work week into next weekend. However, it appears that the evolving westerlies across the U.S. will remain modest to weak, with little potential for appreciable surface cyclogenesis. While guidance suggests some continuing potential for widely scattered strong thunderstorm development near a lingering frontal zone across the Ohio into lower Missouri Valley on Wednesday, it appears that this will diminish thereafter, with generally negligible risk for organized severe thunderstorm potential into and through next weekend.
..Kerr.. 09/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, September 20
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 16 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, September 17 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, September 18 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, September 19 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, September 20 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130820 SPC AC 130820
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range model output indicates that the initially prominent Southeastern mid-level ridge will slowly retrograde west-southwestward and become increasingly suppressed across the lower latitudes late this coming work week into next weekend. However, it appears that the evolving westerlies across the U.S. will remain modest to weak, with little potential for appreciable surface cyclogenesis. While guidance suggests some continuing potential for widely scattered strong thunderstorm development near a lingering frontal zone across the Ohio into lower Missouri Valley on Wednesday, it appears that this will diminish thereafter, with generally negligible risk for organized severe thunderstorm potential into and through next weekend.
..Kerr.. 09/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, September 13
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Monday, September 14
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Tuesday, September 15
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Wednesday, September 16
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, September 17
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, September 18
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, September 19
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, September 20
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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