Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, February 11
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 110529
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
CA/Great Basin
Weak midlevel height falls are forecast to spread across CA into the Great Basin later this afternoon in response to an upper low that will advance slowly inland. Latest model guidance suggests this feature will contribute to destabilization across much of central CA into NV/UT as sub -24C at 500mb exists beneath the upper low. Associated surface low is forecast to struggle advancing inland so weak south-southeasterly boundary-layer flow is expected across the interior valleys. Forecast soundings exhibit weak vertical shear, but modest turning with height. While buoyancy will remain weak, a few low-topped storms could weakly rotate given the veering profiles. Aside from lightning, the greatest risk would be small hail, at best, with this diurnally enhanced convection.
Southeast
Westerly flow will gradually deepen across the Southeast later today in advance of a surface front that will advance toward the SC/GA coast by early evening. Some boundary-layer heating is expected ahead of the wind shift such that weak buoyancy is forecast ahead of the front. Latest forecast soundings suggest the most robust convection could attain heights necessary for lightning discharge, but this activity is expected to remain isolated.
..Darrow/Squitieri.. 02/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Thursday, February 12
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 110543
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.
Synopsis
Overall thunderstorms potential appears low on Thursday, largely driven by upper level ridging over the central CONUS and a dry/stable airmass east of the Rockies. An upper trough is forecast to develop east across portions of the Great Basin into southern CA. Cooling aloft may support a brief period of weak instability and a lightning flash or two cannot be ruled out across the UT vicinity. However, chances for 10 percent or greater coverage appear low given midlevel drying after about 15z.
..Leitman.. 02/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Friday, February 13
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, February 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, February 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, February 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, February 16 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, February 17 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100901 SPC AC 100901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-6/Fri-Sun – TX into the Southeast
An upper trough is forecast to spread eastward from the Southwest into the Southeast Days 4-6/Fri-Sun. Beginning on Day 4/Friday, southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Plains ahead of the trough and surface low pressure is expected to develop over western TX. As the system spreads east through the weekend, Gulf moisture (upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints) will overspread much of central to eastern TX toward the Lower MS Valley and Deep South. Some model spread persists with regards to the timing of eastward progression of the upper trough, and exact latitude of the surface low (some guidance clustering further south, other guidance a bit further north), which will impact quality of moisture return. Regardless, at least weak destabilization should accompany boundary layer moistening and cooling aloft amid strengthening deep-layer southwesterly flow.
Some low-end severe potential is possible from Friday evening through Saturday across portions of TX, and into the Lower MS Valley/Deep South Saturday night through Sunday. However, overall severe potential will likely be limited by weak destabilization, a somewhat cool boundary layer, and questionable moisture return this early in the season, precluding 15 percent severe delineation.
..Leitman.. 02/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, February 14
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, February 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, February 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, February 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, February 16 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, February 17 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100901 SPC AC 100901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-6/Fri-Sun – TX into the Southeast
An upper trough is forecast to spread eastward from the Southwest into the Southeast Days 4-6/Fri-Sun. Beginning on Day 4/Friday, southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Plains ahead of the trough and surface low pressure is expected to develop over western TX. As the system spreads east through the weekend, Gulf moisture (upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints) will overspread much of central to eastern TX toward the Lower MS Valley and Deep South. Some model spread persists with regards to the timing of eastward progression of the upper trough, and exact latitude of the surface low (some guidance clustering further south, other guidance a bit further north), which will impact quality of moisture return. Regardless, at least weak destabilization should accompany boundary layer moistening and cooling aloft amid strengthening deep-layer southwesterly flow.
Some low-end severe potential is possible from Friday evening through Saturday across portions of TX, and into the Lower MS Valley/Deep South Saturday night through Sunday. However, overall severe potential will likely be limited by weak destabilization, a somewhat cool boundary layer, and questionable moisture return this early in the season, precluding 15 percent severe delineation.
..Leitman.. 02/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, February 15
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, February 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, February 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, February 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, February 16 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, February 17 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100901 SPC AC 100901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-6/Fri-Sun – TX into the Southeast
An upper trough is forecast to spread eastward from the Southwest into the Southeast Days 4-6/Fri-Sun. Beginning on Day 4/Friday, southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Plains ahead of the trough and surface low pressure is expected to develop over western TX. As the system spreads east through the weekend, Gulf moisture (upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints) will overspread much of central to eastern TX toward the Lower MS Valley and Deep South. Some model spread persists with regards to the timing of eastward progression of the upper trough, and exact latitude of the surface low (some guidance clustering further south, other guidance a bit further north), which will impact quality of moisture return. Regardless, at least weak destabilization should accompany boundary layer moistening and cooling aloft amid strengthening deep-layer southwesterly flow.
Some low-end severe potential is possible from Friday evening through Saturday across portions of TX, and into the Lower MS Valley/Deep South Saturday night through Sunday. However, overall severe potential will likely be limited by weak destabilization, a somewhat cool boundary layer, and questionable moisture return this early in the season, precluding 15 percent severe delineation.
..Leitman.. 02/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, February 16
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, February 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, February 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, February 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, February 16 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, February 17 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100901 SPC AC 100901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-6/Fri-Sun – TX into the Southeast
An upper trough is forecast to spread eastward from the Southwest into the Southeast Days 4-6/Fri-Sun. Beginning on Day 4/Friday, southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Plains ahead of the trough and surface low pressure is expected to develop over western TX. As the system spreads east through the weekend, Gulf moisture (upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints) will overspread much of central to eastern TX toward the Lower MS Valley and Deep South. Some model spread persists with regards to the timing of eastward progression of the upper trough, and exact latitude of the surface low (some guidance clustering further south, other guidance a bit further north), which will impact quality of moisture return. Regardless, at least weak destabilization should accompany boundary layer moistening and cooling aloft amid strengthening deep-layer southwesterly flow.
Some low-end severe potential is possible from Friday evening through Saturday across portions of TX, and into the Lower MS Valley/Deep South Saturday night through Sunday. However, overall severe potential will likely be limited by weak destabilization, a somewhat cool boundary layer, and questionable moisture return this early in the season, precluding 15 percent severe delineation.
..Leitman.. 02/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, February 17
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, February 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, February 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, February 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, February 16 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, February 17 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100901 SPC AC 100901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-6/Fri-Sun – TX into the Southeast
An upper trough is forecast to spread eastward from the Southwest into the Southeast Days 4-6/Fri-Sun. Beginning on Day 4/Friday, southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Plains ahead of the trough and surface low pressure is expected to develop over western TX. As the system spreads east through the weekend, Gulf moisture (upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints) will overspread much of central to eastern TX toward the Lower MS Valley and Deep South. Some model spread persists with regards to the timing of eastward progression of the upper trough, and exact latitude of the surface low (some guidance clustering further south, other guidance a bit further north), which will impact quality of moisture return. Regardless, at least weak destabilization should accompany boundary layer moistening and cooling aloft amid strengthening deep-layer southwesterly flow.
Some low-end severe potential is possible from Friday evening through Saturday across portions of TX, and into the Lower MS Valley/Deep South Saturday night through Sunday. However, overall severe potential will likely be limited by weak destabilization, a somewhat cool boundary layer, and questionable moisture return this early in the season, precluding 15 percent severe delineation.
..Leitman.. 02/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, February 11
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Thursday, February 12
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Friday, February 13
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, February 14
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, February 15
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, February 16
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, February 17
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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