Severe Weather Outlook
Hayley here
- Do you like
lofi music
whatever music Hayley put on
and terrifyingly loud computer voices? Then stop by the 24/7 ish severe weather live stream!
* stats delayed and were probably not accurate to begin with
National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, March 12
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce damaging winds across parts of the Southeast this morning into the early afternoon. A tornado can not be ruled out early with this activity.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 120531
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce damaging winds across parts of the Southeast this morning into the early afternoon. A tornado can not be ruled out early with this activity.
Southeast: A well-developed squall line has evolved ahead of a pronounced low-latitude short-wave trough. This line of convection currently extends across the central Gulf states and is advancing steadily east in line with latest model guidance. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a short wave that is becoming a bit more negative-tilt as it approaches the lower MS Valley. This feature will eject into AL by the start of the day1 period with substantial midlevel height falls forecast across much of the Southeast early in the period. Upper 60s to lower 70s surface dew points have returned inland across the FL Panhandle and southern AL, and a narrow wedge of modified Gulf air should be in place across the eastern FL Panhandle into extreme southwest GA at sunrise. Current trends suggest the leading edge of strong/severe convection will propagate into this portion of the Southeast around 12z. Strong deep-layer shear favors organized updrafts and given the large-scale support ahead of the trough, activity should remain organized at the start of the period. Some consideration was given to increasing severe probabilities for a narrow wedge immediately ahead of the front for early in the period. If the squall line continues severe this may be warranted at 13z. Locally damaging winds and perhaps a tornado are the expected hazards.
Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms may also develop along the progressive front as it spreads across portions of the Carolinas. Severe threat is primarily before 18z, as the cold front will surge off the Carolina coast by this time.
Northern Plains: Strong midlevel jet will dig southeast across MT into SD with 500mb speeds expected in excess of 120kt into the northern High Plains. AB clipper will dig southeast into the upper Red River region by late afternoon and northwesterly flow will strengthen across this region as the cyclone shifts east. Forecast soundings suggest weak buoyancy will evolve south of the front across the northern Plains such that shallow convection is expected to develop, along with the threat of some lightning. While strong winds will likely develop across eastern MT into SD as lapse rates steepen, thunderstorms are not expected to be the primary driver of severe wind gusts. For this reason severe probabilities will not be introduced.
..Darrow/Halbert.. 03/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Friday, March 13
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 120512
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.
Synopsis
A diffuse surface boundary will reside across central FL on Friday. To the south of the boundary, a seasonally warm and moist airmass will be in place. This will support modest destabilization during the afternoon, and isolated thunderstorms may develop, mainly across south FL. Poor lapse rates, weak vertical shear, and a lack of forcing for ascent will preclude severe thunderstorm potential.
..Leitman.. 03/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Saturday, March 14
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 120641
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.
Synopsis
A potent upper trough will dig southward across the Rockies on Saturday, emerging over the northern Plains to southern Rockies by Sunday morning. In response to sharp height falls, a deepening surface cyclone over the central High Plains will develop eastward through the period, becoming oriented over the Lower MO Valley Sunday morning. A prior cold frontal passage deep into the Gulf will result in only modest moisture return northward across the south-central U.S., with any deeper boundary-layer moisture remaining mostly offshore, and across south TX. Given this dry airmass ahead of the surface low and associated trailing cold front moving across the Plains, little instability is forecast and thunderstorms are unlikely through early Sunday across much of the warm sector over the south-central U.S.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across south FL where a seasonally warm/moist and unstable airmass will reside. Large-scale ascent will remain nebulous, but isolated thunderstorms could develop along the sea breeze across the southwest Peninsula. Weak vertical shear and poor lapse rates will preclude severe thunderstorm potential.
..Leitman.. 03/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Sunday, March 15
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, March 15 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Monday, March 16 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, March 17 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, March 18 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, March 19 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120815 SPC AC 120815
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Sunday - ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley into the Middle MS/Lower OH Valleys
An intense upper trough will deepen over the Plains and shift east to the MS Valley on Sunday. From late afternoon into the nighttime hours, an 80-100 kt jet streak will develop within the base of the trough and overspread portions of the region. At the surface, an already strong cyclone will deepen further as it moves from the Lower MO Valley to the Lower Great Lakes vicinity. As this occurs, a strong cold front will sweep eastward across the southern Plains and much of the Midwest and Southern U.S., becoming oriented from Ohio to the FL Panhandle by Monday morning.
While strengthening southerly low-level flow will develop ahead of the front, stronger Gulf moisture return will be confined to TX and the Lower MS Valley vicinity, with mainly 50s dewpoints expected with northward extent across the Middle MS and OH Valley regions. Furthermore, capping is expected ahead of the cold front, potentially limiting warm sector convection. Nevertheless, modest moisture and steepening midlevel lapse rates will support at least weak destabilization very near the cold front. A narrow line of strongly-forced convection is expected to develop along the cold front and move across portions of OK/TX into the Middle/Lower MS and Lower OH/TN Valley regions. Given intense deep-layer flow near and just behind the cold front, strong/damaging wind potential will exist within a modest instability/high shear environment. A 15 percent severe delineation has been included from the ArkLaTex into the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley vicinity. Depending on low-level moisture/instability trends, this area may need to be expanded north and east into a larger portion of the Middle MS/Lower OH/TN Valley vicinity in subsequent outlooks.
Day 5/Monday - Southeast to Mid-Atlantic
Severe thunderstorm potential will likely continue into Monday as the intense upper trough continues to migrate east from the MS Valley toward the Eastern Seaboard. Intense deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile, 60s F dewpoints will extend from southeast GA northward through the Mid-Atlantic ahead of a sharp cold front. Pre-frontal surface troughing across the VA/NC Piedmont also will support backing low-level winds, leading to enhanced low-level shear. Depending on how much cloud cover and warm advection precipitation occurs ahead of the cold front, stronger destabilization may be inhibited. Nevertheless, at least weak instability is forecast ahead of a strongly forced line of convection along the eastward-advancing cold front. This activity alone could produce a swath of strong to severe wind gusts. A more conditional risk of supercells across the warm sector exists across eastern VA/NC, but this is more uncertain. Given damaging wind potential with the strongly forced linear convection, a 15 percent severe delineation has been added for portions of the region.
Days 6-8/Tuesday-Thursday
Severe thunderstorm potential will be low Tuesday through Thursday as strong surface high pressure builds in the wake of the earlier cold frontal passage. A dry/stable airmass will prevail as Gulf moisture remains well offshore.
..Leitman.. 03/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, March 16
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, March 15 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Monday, March 16 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, March 17 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, March 18 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, March 19 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120815 SPC AC 120815
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Sunday - ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley into the Middle MS/Lower OH Valleys
An intense upper trough will deepen over the Plains and shift east to the MS Valley on Sunday. From late afternoon into the nighttime hours, an 80-100 kt jet streak will develop within the base of the trough and overspread portions of the region. At the surface, an already strong cyclone will deepen further as it moves from the Lower MO Valley to the Lower Great Lakes vicinity. As this occurs, a strong cold front will sweep eastward across the southern Plains and much of the Midwest and Southern U.S., becoming oriented from Ohio to the FL Panhandle by Monday morning.
While strengthening southerly low-level flow will develop ahead of the front, stronger Gulf moisture return will be confined to TX and the Lower MS Valley vicinity, with mainly 50s dewpoints expected with northward extent across the Middle MS and OH Valley regions. Furthermore, capping is expected ahead of the cold front, potentially limiting warm sector convection. Nevertheless, modest moisture and steepening midlevel lapse rates will support at least weak destabilization very near the cold front. A narrow line of strongly-forced convection is expected to develop along the cold front and move across portions of OK/TX into the Middle/Lower MS and Lower OH/TN Valley regions. Given intense deep-layer flow near and just behind the cold front, strong/damaging wind potential will exist within a modest instability/high shear environment. A 15 percent severe delineation has been included from the ArkLaTex into the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley vicinity. Depending on low-level moisture/instability trends, this area may need to be expanded north and east into a larger portion of the Middle MS/Lower OH/TN Valley vicinity in subsequent outlooks.
Day 5/Monday - Southeast to Mid-Atlantic
Severe thunderstorm potential will likely continue into Monday as the intense upper trough continues to migrate east from the MS Valley toward the Eastern Seaboard. Intense deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile, 60s F dewpoints will extend from southeast GA northward through the Mid-Atlantic ahead of a sharp cold front. Pre-frontal surface troughing across the VA/NC Piedmont also will support backing low-level winds, leading to enhanced low-level shear. Depending on how much cloud cover and warm advection precipitation occurs ahead of the cold front, stronger destabilization may be inhibited. Nevertheless, at least weak instability is forecast ahead of a strongly forced line of convection along the eastward-advancing cold front. This activity alone could produce a swath of strong to severe wind gusts. A more conditional risk of supercells across the warm sector exists across eastern VA/NC, but this is more uncertain. Given damaging wind potential with the strongly forced linear convection, a 15 percent severe delineation has been added for portions of the region.
Days 6-8/Tuesday-Thursday
Severe thunderstorm potential will be low Tuesday through Thursday as strong surface high pressure builds in the wake of the earlier cold frontal passage. A dry/stable airmass will prevail as Gulf moisture remains well offshore.
..Leitman.. 03/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, March 17
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, March 15 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Monday, March 16 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, March 17 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, March 18 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, March 19 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120815 SPC AC 120815
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Sunday - ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley into the Middle MS/Lower OH Valleys
An intense upper trough will deepen over the Plains and shift east to the MS Valley on Sunday. From late afternoon into the nighttime hours, an 80-100 kt jet streak will develop within the base of the trough and overspread portions of the region. At the surface, an already strong cyclone will deepen further as it moves from the Lower MO Valley to the Lower Great Lakes vicinity. As this occurs, a strong cold front will sweep eastward across the southern Plains and much of the Midwest and Southern U.S., becoming oriented from Ohio to the FL Panhandle by Monday morning.
While strengthening southerly low-level flow will develop ahead of the front, stronger Gulf moisture return will be confined to TX and the Lower MS Valley vicinity, with mainly 50s dewpoints expected with northward extent across the Middle MS and OH Valley regions. Furthermore, capping is expected ahead of the cold front, potentially limiting warm sector convection. Nevertheless, modest moisture and steepening midlevel lapse rates will support at least weak destabilization very near the cold front. A narrow line of strongly-forced convection is expected to develop along the cold front and move across portions of OK/TX into the Middle/Lower MS and Lower OH/TN Valley regions. Given intense deep-layer flow near and just behind the cold front, strong/damaging wind potential will exist within a modest instability/high shear environment. A 15 percent severe delineation has been included from the ArkLaTex into the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley vicinity. Depending on low-level moisture/instability trends, this area may need to be expanded north and east into a larger portion of the Middle MS/Lower OH/TN Valley vicinity in subsequent outlooks.
Day 5/Monday - Southeast to Mid-Atlantic
Severe thunderstorm potential will likely continue into Monday as the intense upper trough continues to migrate east from the MS Valley toward the Eastern Seaboard. Intense deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile, 60s F dewpoints will extend from southeast GA northward through the Mid-Atlantic ahead of a sharp cold front. Pre-frontal surface troughing across the VA/NC Piedmont also will support backing low-level winds, leading to enhanced low-level shear. Depending on how much cloud cover and warm advection precipitation occurs ahead of the cold front, stronger destabilization may be inhibited. Nevertheless, at least weak instability is forecast ahead of a strongly forced line of convection along the eastward-advancing cold front. This activity alone could produce a swath of strong to severe wind gusts. A more conditional risk of supercells across the warm sector exists across eastern VA/NC, but this is more uncertain. Given damaging wind potential with the strongly forced linear convection, a 15 percent severe delineation has been added for portions of the region.
Days 6-8/Tuesday-Thursday
Severe thunderstorm potential will be low Tuesday through Thursday as strong surface high pressure builds in the wake of the earlier cold frontal passage. A dry/stable airmass will prevail as Gulf moisture remains well offshore.
..Leitman.. 03/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, March 18
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, March 15 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Monday, March 16 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, March 17 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, March 18 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, March 19 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120815 SPC AC 120815
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Sunday - ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley into the Middle MS/Lower OH Valleys
An intense upper trough will deepen over the Plains and shift east to the MS Valley on Sunday. From late afternoon into the nighttime hours, an 80-100 kt jet streak will develop within the base of the trough and overspread portions of the region. At the surface, an already strong cyclone will deepen further as it moves from the Lower MO Valley to the Lower Great Lakes vicinity. As this occurs, a strong cold front will sweep eastward across the southern Plains and much of the Midwest and Southern U.S., becoming oriented from Ohio to the FL Panhandle by Monday morning.
While strengthening southerly low-level flow will develop ahead of the front, stronger Gulf moisture return will be confined to TX and the Lower MS Valley vicinity, with mainly 50s dewpoints expected with northward extent across the Middle MS and OH Valley regions. Furthermore, capping is expected ahead of the cold front, potentially limiting warm sector convection. Nevertheless, modest moisture and steepening midlevel lapse rates will support at least weak destabilization very near the cold front. A narrow line of strongly-forced convection is expected to develop along the cold front and move across portions of OK/TX into the Middle/Lower MS and Lower OH/TN Valley regions. Given intense deep-layer flow near and just behind the cold front, strong/damaging wind potential will exist within a modest instability/high shear environment. A 15 percent severe delineation has been included from the ArkLaTex into the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley vicinity. Depending on low-level moisture/instability trends, this area may need to be expanded north and east into a larger portion of the Middle MS/Lower OH/TN Valley vicinity in subsequent outlooks.
Day 5/Monday - Southeast to Mid-Atlantic
Severe thunderstorm potential will likely continue into Monday as the intense upper trough continues to migrate east from the MS Valley toward the Eastern Seaboard. Intense deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile, 60s F dewpoints will extend from southeast GA northward through the Mid-Atlantic ahead of a sharp cold front. Pre-frontal surface troughing across the VA/NC Piedmont also will support backing low-level winds, leading to enhanced low-level shear. Depending on how much cloud cover and warm advection precipitation occurs ahead of the cold front, stronger destabilization may be inhibited. Nevertheless, at least weak instability is forecast ahead of a strongly forced line of convection along the eastward-advancing cold front. This activity alone could produce a swath of strong to severe wind gusts. A more conditional risk of supercells across the warm sector exists across eastern VA/NC, but this is more uncertain. Given damaging wind potential with the strongly forced linear convection, a 15 percent severe delineation has been added for portions of the region.
Days 6-8/Tuesday-Thursday
Severe thunderstorm potential will be low Tuesday through Thursday as strong surface high pressure builds in the wake of the earlier cold frontal passage. A dry/stable airmass will prevail as Gulf moisture remains well offshore.
..Leitman.. 03/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, March 19
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, March 15 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Monday, March 16 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, March 17 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, March 18 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, March 19 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120815 SPC AC 120815
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Sunday - ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley into the Middle MS/Lower OH Valleys
An intense upper trough will deepen over the Plains and shift east to the MS Valley on Sunday. From late afternoon into the nighttime hours, an 80-100 kt jet streak will develop within the base of the trough and overspread portions of the region. At the surface, an already strong cyclone will deepen further as it moves from the Lower MO Valley to the Lower Great Lakes vicinity. As this occurs, a strong cold front will sweep eastward across the southern Plains and much of the Midwest and Southern U.S., becoming oriented from Ohio to the FL Panhandle by Monday morning.
While strengthening southerly low-level flow will develop ahead of the front, stronger Gulf moisture return will be confined to TX and the Lower MS Valley vicinity, with mainly 50s dewpoints expected with northward extent across the Middle MS and OH Valley regions. Furthermore, capping is expected ahead of the cold front, potentially limiting warm sector convection. Nevertheless, modest moisture and steepening midlevel lapse rates will support at least weak destabilization very near the cold front. A narrow line of strongly-forced convection is expected to develop along the cold front and move across portions of OK/TX into the Middle/Lower MS and Lower OH/TN Valley regions. Given intense deep-layer flow near and just behind the cold front, strong/damaging wind potential will exist within a modest instability/high shear environment. A 15 percent severe delineation has been included from the ArkLaTex into the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley vicinity. Depending on low-level moisture/instability trends, this area may need to be expanded north and east into a larger portion of the Middle MS/Lower OH/TN Valley vicinity in subsequent outlooks.
Day 5/Monday - Southeast to Mid-Atlantic
Severe thunderstorm potential will likely continue into Monday as the intense upper trough continues to migrate east from the MS Valley toward the Eastern Seaboard. Intense deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile, 60s F dewpoints will extend from southeast GA northward through the Mid-Atlantic ahead of a sharp cold front. Pre-frontal surface troughing across the VA/NC Piedmont also will support backing low-level winds, leading to enhanced low-level shear. Depending on how much cloud cover and warm advection precipitation occurs ahead of the cold front, stronger destabilization may be inhibited. Nevertheless, at least weak instability is forecast ahead of a strongly forced line of convection along the eastward-advancing cold front. This activity alone could produce a swath of strong to severe wind gusts. A more conditional risk of supercells across the warm sector exists across eastern VA/NC, but this is more uncertain. Given damaging wind potential with the strongly forced linear convection, a 15 percent severe delineation has been added for portions of the region.
Days 6-8/Tuesday-Thursday
Severe thunderstorm potential will be low Tuesday through Thursday as strong surface high pressure builds in the wake of the earlier cold frontal passage. A dry/stable airmass will prevail as Gulf moisture remains well offshore.
..Leitman.. 03/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, March 12
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Friday, March 13
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Saturday, March 14
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Sunday, March 15
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Monday, March 16
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Tuesday, March 17
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, March 18
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, March 19
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Your Severe Outlook
Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.
Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.
Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.
About Severe Weather Outlook . com
SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.
- tornado hq - live severe weather warnings
- cyclocane - hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones
- tornado solitaire - play cards while you monitor the US severe weather threat
- tertremo - live view of earthquakes around the world
- earthquake solitaire - get live earthquake updates as you play your favorite card game