Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, September 17
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible over parts of the Intermountain West this afternoon and evening. A few strong to severe gusts may also occur across portions of the central High Plains.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 171230
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026
Valid 171300Z - 181200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF UTAH/IDAHO INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA…AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible over parts of the Intermountain West this afternoon and evening. A few strong to severe gusts may also occur across portions of the central High Plains.
Utah/Idaho into Southwest Montana
A closed mid/upper-level low over northern CA this morning will slowly develop eastward today across the northern Intermountain region. A 40-50 kt southwesterly mid-level jet and difluence aloft will overspread parts of the northern Great Basin through this afternoon. Large-scale ascent will likewise further increase through the day across this region, with additional thunderstorm development anticipated. The primary uncertainty regarding the severe risk remains how much instability will develop given the prevalence of clouds and ongoing precipitation this morning. With upper 40s to low 50s surface dewpoints already in place, some guidance suggests sufficient diurnal heating in tandem with cool temperatures aloft will support up to 1000-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE over southeast ID/northern UT and vicinity this afternoon. If this occurs, then a focused corridor of greater severe hail/wind potential may exist across these areas, as deep-layer shear will be strong enough to support supercells. Otherwise, a broader risk for isolated hail/gusty winds will exist across the northern Great Basin with any cells/small clusters that can develop.
Central High Plains
Between a mid/upper-level low over the West Coast and upper ridging over the Southeast/southern Plains, multiple minor mid-level perturbations should move northeastward from the Southwest/southern Rockies towards the central High Plains by this evening. One leading mid-level vorticity maximum aiding showers and isolated thunderstorms across NM this morning should support additional convective development across northeast CO into western NE and vicinity by late afternoon. While low-level moisture and related instability should gradually increase across this region through the day, mid-level lapse rates should remain modest. This will probably tend to limit updraft intensity, but sufficient deep-layer shear should be present for some convective organization. A small cluster or two could eventually evolve and pose some risk for isolated severe gusts as they spread east-northeastward across the central High Plains through the evening.
Midwest/Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic
Ongoing convection across the Midwest has remained slightly elevated to the north of a surface front through the early morning. Current expectations are for this activity to move east-southeastward through the rest of the morning in a weakly unstable environment. Various observed 00/12Z soundings downstream across the OH Valley and southern Mid-Atlantic show very poor lapse rates aloft (i.e., around 4.7-5 C/km in the 700-500 mb layer), which will likely hinder robust updraft intensities. Furthermore, visible satellite imagery shows extensive cloudiness present across these regions. This will slow/dampen diurnal heating and related steepening of low-level lapse rates. While strong/gusty winds may still occur with convection that develops/spreads southeastward through the day, the overall risk for severe/damaging winds appears too limited for 5% probabilities at this time.
..Gleason/Mead.. 09/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Friday, September 18
Outlook Summary
Areas of scattered strong thunderstorm development posing at least some risk for severe hail or wind appear possible across parts of the northern Intermountain West into the central Great Plains and southern middle Missouri Valley, and portions of the Carolina into Georgia Piedmont Friday afternoon and evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 170530
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST…THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY…AND PIEDMONT OF CAROLINAS INTO GEORGIA
### SUMMARY
Areas of scattered strong thunderstorm development posing at least some risk for severe hail or wind appear possible across parts of the northern Intermountain West into the central Great Plains and southern middle Missouri Valley, and portions of the Carolina into Georgia Piedmont Friday afternoon and evening.
Discussion
Latest model output continues to indicate that larger-scale mid-level troughing, with a vigorous lead embedded short wave impulse, will dig across the northern Atlantic Seaboard accompanied by significant surface cyclogenesis near and east of the Canadian Maritimes through this period. In the wake of the cyclone, it appears that a cold front will continue advancing offshore and through the southern Mid Atlantic Seaboard, before becoming quasi-stationary beneath the northern periphery of persistent mid-level ridging, across the lower Ohio through lower and middle Missouri Valleys.
Upstream of the mid-level ridge, a mid-level trough and embedded low are forecast to slowly progress across the Intermountain West through Rockies vicinity, preceded by a couple of more subtle perturbations migrating around the northwestern through northern periphery of the ridge.
Piedmont of Carolinas into Georgia
Low-level lapse rates may become rather steep by Friday afternoon, within pre-frontal surface troughing to the lee of the southern Appalachians, where a relatively moist and mixed boundary-layer might become characterized by CAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg. Perhaps aided by forcing for ascent associated with a convectively augmented perturbation, storms may increase off the higher terrain and pose a risk for localized downbursts. It appears possible that activity could eventually consolidate into a southward/southwestward propagating cluster, with the cold pool strengthening sufficiently to maintain a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts into Friday evening, despite the weakness of the ambient deep-layer mean flow.
Northern Intermountain West and adjacent Rockies
Beneath the leading edge of the cold core of the mid-level low, cool thermodynamic profiles, with at least modestly steep mid-level lapse rates, may contribute to scattered strong storms capable of producing severe hail Friday afternoon, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear and difluent mid/upper flow.
Great Plains into middle Missouri Valley
Convective potential remains uncertain, with the timing of the short wave perturbations impacting the region unclear.
The latest model output, including convection-allowing and related guidance, suggest that forcing for ascent with a secondary impulse may not begin to emerge from the Raton Mesa vicinity until Friday evening. However, the remnants of a very warm and deeply mixed-boundary layer within the lee surface troughing may still be conducive to a few strong downbursts near convection overspreading southeastern Colorado through at least portions of western Kansas before weakening later Friday night.
Closer to a weak frontal wave/warm frontal zone across parts of eastern Nebraska into western Iowa and northwestern Missouri, a corridor of moderate to large CAPE will contribute to an environment conditionally supportive of organized strong thunderstorm development. However, forcing for ascent to support boundary-layer based thunderstorms remains unclear through late Friday afternoon. By mid to late evening, if not earlier, warm advection along a nocturnally strengthening boundary-layer jet, beneath an increasingly divergent upper regime, may support an evolving supercell structure and small upscale growing cluster. This may still occur mostly above a stable and/or stabilizing boundary-layer, but the environment might still be conducive to the development of a few strong surface gusts. Relatively warm thermodynamic profiles seem likely to minimize the risk for severe hail.
..Kerr.. 09/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Saturday, September 19
Outlook Summary
Isolated to widely scattered strong storms posing some risk for severe wind and hail are possible across parts of the middle Mississippi Valley into central and southern Great Plains, and east of the Front Range, Saturday afternoon and evening.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 170739
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND NEAR THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES
CORRECTED FOR TYPOS
SUMMARY
Isolated to widely scattered strong storms posing some risk for severe wind and hail are possible across parts of the middle Mississippi Valley into central and southern Great Plains, and east of the Front Range, Saturday afternoon and evening.
Discussion
The stronger westerlies will remain confined to the northern mid-latitudes, with mid-level troughing forecast to dig across Hudson Bay, Ontario and Quebec, downstream of broad ridging overspreading the Canadian Prairies, and in the wake of a significant cyclone migrating away from the Canadian Maritimes. In response to these developments, it appears that cool surface ridging will be maintained to the east of the southern Appalachians, while the associated high center shifts off the northern Atlantic Seaboard. Another modest high is forecast to begin shifting across the central Canadian/U.S. border through much of the northern Great Plains, Upper Midwest and adjacent upper Great Lakes by late Saturday night.
This will be preceded by a notable cold front advancing slowly southward into/across the Ohio and lower Missouri Valleys and central Great Plains, beneath a weaker belt of westerlies across the southern mid-latitudes. Within this regime, broad mid-level troughing is forecast to continue a slow eastward progression across the Rockies through central Great Plains, downstream of weak troughing slowly approaching the California coast.
Mid-level ridging downstream of the lead trough will become increasingly suppressed across the southeastern Great Plains through lower to middle Mississippi Valley vicinity. A perturbation along it southeastern periphery may continue slowly west-southwestward across Florida and the northeastern Gulf Basin.
Front Range vicinity into middle Mississippi Valley
Generally warm thermodynamic profiles and modest to weak vertical shear to the east of the Rockies will continue to limit the severe weather potential, but isolated to widely scattered strong thunderstorm development posing at least some risk for severe wind and/or hail appears possible in a few evolving regimes Saturday into Saturday night.
Convection with potential to produce strong surface gusts may be supported by the evolution of a very warm and deeply mixed boundary layer by late afternoon, within weak pre-frontal surface troughing across parts of eastern New Mexico, the Texas South Plains and Panhandle, and northwestern Oklahoma into southeastern Kansas.
Seasonably high moisture content and lift along the low-level baroclinic zone across the lower Missouri/middle Mississippi Valleys may support an upscale growing cluster or clusters of storms, which could organize sufficiently to support a period or two of strong surface gusts.
Although the mid-level cold core may tend to remain to the northwest of the region through the period, cooling aloft across and southeast of the Front Range, coupled with moistening southeasterly near-surface flow, may still contribute to favorable thermodynamic profiles for a few storms capable of producing severe hail and wind, in the presence of modest shear late Saturday afternoon and evening.
..Kerr.. 09/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Sunday, September 20
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, September 20 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, September 21 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, September 22 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, September 23 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, September 24 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170848 SPC AC 170848
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
The latest ECENS and GEFS appear similar in their depiction of the evolving mid/upper flow late this weekend through the middle of next week. A weak mid-level trough and embedded low emerging from the Intermountain West may weaken further while slowly progressing across the central Great Plains through Ohio Valley, to the south of a transient building mid-level high near the central Canadian/U.S. border into the upper Great Lakes/northwestern Ontario vicinity. Toward the middle to latter part of next week, remnant mid-level troughing may tend to dig into and across the Mid Atlantic, as mid-level ridging builds again across the Great Plains/Mississippi Valley, downstream of a weak mid-level perturbation progressing into the Southwest, and amplifying troughing within the stronger westerlies offshore of the Pacific coast.
In association with this evolving regime, generally weak deep-layer mean wind fields and increasingly limited potential for stronger destabilization are likely to minimize the risk for severe weather.
..Kerr.. 09/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, September 21
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, September 20 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, September 21 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, September 22 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, September 23 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, September 24 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170848 SPC AC 170848
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
The latest ECENS and GEFS appear similar in their depiction of the evolving mid/upper flow late this weekend through the middle of next week. A weak mid-level trough and embedded low emerging from the Intermountain West may weaken further while slowly progressing across the central Great Plains through Ohio Valley, to the south of a transient building mid-level high near the central Canadian/U.S. border into the upper Great Lakes/northwestern Ontario vicinity. Toward the middle to latter part of next week, remnant mid-level troughing may tend to dig into and across the Mid Atlantic, as mid-level ridging builds again across the Great Plains/Mississippi Valley, downstream of a weak mid-level perturbation progressing into the Southwest, and amplifying troughing within the stronger westerlies offshore of the Pacific coast.
In association with this evolving regime, generally weak deep-layer mean wind fields and increasingly limited potential for stronger destabilization are likely to minimize the risk for severe weather.
..Kerr.. 09/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, September 22
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, September 20 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, September 21 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, September 22 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, September 23 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, September 24 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170848 SPC AC 170848
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
The latest ECENS and GEFS appear similar in their depiction of the evolving mid/upper flow late this weekend through the middle of next week. A weak mid-level trough and embedded low emerging from the Intermountain West may weaken further while slowly progressing across the central Great Plains through Ohio Valley, to the south of a transient building mid-level high near the central Canadian/U.S. border into the upper Great Lakes/northwestern Ontario vicinity. Toward the middle to latter part of next week, remnant mid-level troughing may tend to dig into and across the Mid Atlantic, as mid-level ridging builds again across the Great Plains/Mississippi Valley, downstream of a weak mid-level perturbation progressing into the Southwest, and amplifying troughing within the stronger westerlies offshore of the Pacific coast.
In association with this evolving regime, generally weak deep-layer mean wind fields and increasingly limited potential for stronger destabilization are likely to minimize the risk for severe weather.
..Kerr.. 09/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, September 23
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, September 20 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, September 21 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, September 22 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, September 23 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, September 24 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170848 SPC AC 170848
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
The latest ECENS and GEFS appear similar in their depiction of the evolving mid/upper flow late this weekend through the middle of next week. A weak mid-level trough and embedded low emerging from the Intermountain West may weaken further while slowly progressing across the central Great Plains through Ohio Valley, to the south of a transient building mid-level high near the central Canadian/U.S. border into the upper Great Lakes/northwestern Ontario vicinity. Toward the middle to latter part of next week, remnant mid-level troughing may tend to dig into and across the Mid Atlantic, as mid-level ridging builds again across the Great Plains/Mississippi Valley, downstream of a weak mid-level perturbation progressing into the Southwest, and amplifying troughing within the stronger westerlies offshore of the Pacific coast.
In association with this evolving regime, generally weak deep-layer mean wind fields and increasingly limited potential for stronger destabilization are likely to minimize the risk for severe weather.
..Kerr.. 09/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, September 24
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, September 20 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, September 21 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, September 22 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, September 23 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, September 24 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170848 SPC AC 170848
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
The latest ECENS and GEFS appear similar in their depiction of the evolving mid/upper flow late this weekend through the middle of next week. A weak mid-level trough and embedded low emerging from the Intermountain West may weaken further while slowly progressing across the central Great Plains through Ohio Valley, to the south of a transient building mid-level high near the central Canadian/U.S. border into the upper Great Lakes/northwestern Ontario vicinity. Toward the middle to latter part of next week, remnant mid-level troughing may tend to dig into and across the Mid Atlantic, as mid-level ridging builds again across the Great Plains/Mississippi Valley, downstream of a weak mid-level perturbation progressing into the Southwest, and amplifying troughing within the stronger westerlies offshore of the Pacific coast.
In association with this evolving regime, generally weak deep-layer mean wind fields and increasingly limited potential for stronger destabilization are likely to minimize the risk for severe weather.
..Kerr.. 09/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, September 17
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Friday, September 18
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Saturday, September 19
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Sunday, September 20
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, September 21
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, September 22
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, September 23
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, September 24
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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